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Make In India And Expanding Scope For India-Japan Defense Cooperation – Analysis

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By Titli Basu

India’s Act East policy and Prime Minister Modi’s Make in India drive coincide with the shifts in the Japanese post-war security policy and the April 2014 easing of the self-imposed arms export ban. The Agreement concerning transfer of Defence Equipment and Technology Cooperation signed during the latest visit of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on December 12, 2015 unveils a new chapter in India-Japan defence cooperation by making available defence equipment and technology needed to carry out joint research, development and/or production projects.1 India’s defence modernisation presents enormous opportunities for the Japanese defence industry, which until recently concentrated exclusively on the domestic market in order to demonstrate Japan’s commitment to peace. Now, there is tremendous scope for redefining the contours of the bilateral defence cooperation by way of transfer of, and collaboration on, projects related to defence equipment and technology.

The most recent India-Japan Defence Ministerial Meeting in March 2015 underscored that defence technology cooperation “can emerge as a key pillar of bilateral defence relations”.2 Besides, Japan has been identified as a privileged partner in the Make in India campaign by Defence Minister Parrikar.3 India is interested in joint development and production of defence equipment. The progress on sourcing Japanese defence technology – for instance, negotiation on the Utility Seaplane Mark 2 (US-2) amphibian aircraft – is now in its final stages. Moreover, the manufacturers of the US-2 amphibian aircraft, ShinMaywa Industries, initiated discussions with several Indian counterparts as India and Japan debated the prospects of assembling the aircraft in India. The Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Company will reportedly partner with ShinMaywa Industries in assembling the aircraft in India.4

India plans to obtain 12 US-2 aircraft for use in patrolling the Andaman and Nicobar islands and conducting search and rescue operations in the Indian Ocean. While Bombardier (Canada) and Beriev (Russia) expressed interest in responding to the Request for Information (RFI), the US-2’s competence vis-à-vis rapid surveillance and response enabled by state of the art technology, rough sea operation capability, lake/riverine landing capacity, and short take-off and landing characteristics are best suited for securing critical SLOCs, conducting air sea rescue, casualty evacuation, humanitarian relief and disaster management, as well as constabulary operations and Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) assignments of the Indian Navy. While ShinMaywa Industries is not a fresh entrant in India – it has provided aerobridges for airports and set up waste water treatment pumps5 — the US-2 is the first Japanese aircraft offered to India which is otherwise used mainly by the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF).

Earlier, Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) pressure on the Abe administration had enabled a policy shift in April 2014 concerning the export of military equipment aimed at supporting Japanese firms, which were restricted to the domestic needs of the Self-Defense Forces. Following this, Japan has entered into several military technology deals, including the export of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries manufactured gyroscopes to enhance the accuracy of the US developed Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2) missile interceptors, supplying sensor technology to Britain aimed at improving air-to-air missile guiding capabilities, exploring the prospects of a submarine deal with Australia, and building underwater drones and robots capable of operating in radioactive surroundings with France.

Building upon the deepening bonhomie, Modi had earlier encouraged Japan to participate in Project 75 India. The objective is to strengthen naval power by building six stealth submarines in India. He welcomed the manufacturers of the ultra-quiet Soryu class non-nuclear attack submarine, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries, to compete with other contractors including DCNS of France, HDW of Germany, Rosoboron export of Russia and Navantia of Spain.6 It is, however, important to note that in such projects, technology prerequisites, project timeframes, and economic practicability often complicate military technology cooperation. Besides, cooperation and access to Japanese technologies including communications, electronic warfare technologies, and surveillance radars should be explored.

So far, the compass of bilateral defence cooperation has included high level defence exchanges involving the Defence Ministers, Vice-Minister/Defence Secretary level Defence Policy Dialogue, Vice-Minister/Secretary level 2+2 dialogue, and visit by the Service Chiefs. JMSDF and the Indian Navy engage in joint exercises in bilateral or trilateral frameworks focusing on anti-piracy drills and search and rescue operations. The Indian Army and Japan Ground Self-Defence Force (JGSDF) engage in professional exchanges in humanitarian assistance/ disaster relief and counter-terrorism. Japan Air Self Defence Force (JASDF) and the Indian Air Force hold staff talks and official exchanges of test-pilots and air transport squadrons. In addition, there are exchanges on UN peace keeping operations between the Centre for UN Peacekeeping (CUNPK) of the Indian Army and the Japan Peacekeeping Training and Research Center (JPC) of the Joint Staff College and the Central Readiness Force (CRF) of JGSDF.7 In a welcome development, Japan has also become a regular partner in the India-US Malabar Exercise. Besides, an agreement concerning security measures for the protection of classified military information has been signed during the latest summit which guarantees the mutual protection of confidential military information shared with each other, provided they are consistent with the national laws of the receiving party.8

India-Japan relations have been elevated to a Special Strategic and Global Partnership in the 2014 Tokyo Declaration. For long, maritime cooperation constituted the core of India-Japan defence and security cooperation. To add further value to the relationship that has ‘the largest potential in the world’,9 defence cooperation needs to advance from joint exercises and multi-faceted exchange frameworks to co-development and co-production of sophisticated defence equipment and technologies. The December 12, 2015 agreement on Defence Equipment and Technology Cooperation is a big step that will further consolidate India-Japan strategic ties. Since both Modi and Abe have pledged to realise the full potential of the partnership, this is an opportune time for addressing the challenges and producing tangible gains while deepening the scope of India-Japan defence cooperation.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India.

Originally published by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/make-in-india-scope-for-india-japan-defence-cooperation_tbasu_291215


US Fed Rate Hike To Test Emerging Markets – OpEd

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In the multipolar world economy, the Fed’s unilateral actions contribute to diminishing global growth prospects.

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, taking the first step away from its near-zero interest rate policy. Led by its chairman Janet Yellen, the Fed sought to defuse market tensions by signaling a “gradual” pace of rate hikes to come. Yet the Dow plunged 367 points, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost 1.5 to 2 percent.

In the United States, rising rates will reward investors but increase the borrowing costs for consumers amid the earnings and revenue slump, and sluggish growth. At the Fed, concerns linger over China’s growth slowdown. Besides, rate hikes will reinforce the sharp plunge of energy prices, while sending the US dollar climbing.

So, what will be the impact on China?

The impact of the Fed’s rate hikes on China

When the Fed began its rate hikes about a decade ago, the Chinese economy was about one-fourth of what it is today and its financial markets were largely insulated from the outside world. These privileges are now gone. Today, China is the world’s second-largest economy and the renminbi has been included in the International Monetary Fund’s basket of elite currencies. And despite controls, it is far more exposed to global capital flow risks.

And what about the impact of the Fed’s actions on China’s external trade and international investments? US critics claim that a weakening RMB will make Chinese exporters more competitive. Yet things are now a bit more complex. In the past, the mainland’s growth relied on trade. Today, with the slump of world trade and the rebalancing toward consumption, net exports play a less vital role in GDP growth, while Chinese direct investment has soared internationally.

Ever since early 2014, the US dollar has strengthened relative to the RMB, which is expected to weaken over the next year as well. That is partly because of a slower 6.5 percent growth target for the 2016 to 2020 period and partly because of the Belt and Road Initiative, which implies more outward direct investment from China. In November, China’s foreign reserves fell by $87 billion, though it still has $3.44 trillion in reserves.

In the short term, that means moderate weakening and occasional volatility of the RMB; in the longer term, it means strengthening of the Chinese currency’s resilience.

If the Fed’s rate hikes will test the endurance of China’s rebalancing and its “long landing”, the impact will be a lot worse in many emerging and developing economies.

Dark history, global vulnerability

Over the past three decades, the Fed’s rate hikes have reduced US employment and output far more than anticipated, while causing “collateral” damage across the world. In the early 1980s, Paul Volcker, then Fed chief, resorted to harsh tightening that devastated US households. In Latin America, it resulted in a “lost decade”.

Later, former Fed chief Alan Greenspan’s rate hikes undermined the struggling savings and loans associations, forcing Washington and US state governments to bail out insolvent institutions. In the early 1990s, Greenspan again seized tightening but then reversed his decision, which undermined expansion. In the first case, global growth decelerated to less than 1 percent; in the second, it plunged to 4 percent below zero in developing nations.

In the 2004 to 2007 period, the rate hikes by Greenspan and his successor Ben Bernanke contributed to the Great Recession across the world. In low-income economies, growth stayed at 5 to 7 percent thanks to China’s contribution to global growth.

After traditional monetary policies were exhausted, the central banks of advanced economies opted for new rounds of quantitative easing, driving “hot money” – short- term portfolio flows – into high-yield emerging markets, which had to cope with asset bubbles, elevated inflation and exchange rate appreciation.

Now US hikes will attract “hot money” outflows from emerging markets that are struggling with asset shrinkages, deflation and depreciation. In 2015, net capital flows for emerging economies will be negative for the first time since 1988.

Today, the world economy is more fragile than ever. It does not need unilateral actions with global consequences but without international accountability. What the multipolar world needs is truly global monetary cooperation.

Source: DifferenceGroup.net, The original, slightly shorter version was released by China Daily on December 23, 2015

Cherishing Empire: Tony Abbott And The Rhodes Must Fall Campaign – OpEd

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“The university and its students should prefer improving today’s orthodoxies to imposing them on our forebears.” — Tony Abbott, The Independent, Dec 23, 2015

Attitudes to imperialism vary with their ages. In their first, and purest form, they assume it to be necessary, a burden (white was the dominant colour over the last two centuries) that takes the form of the “gift” of civilization. Then, things cool off. Anti-imperial leagues develop. Critiques come to the fore. Running an empire is not necessarily such a good idea, least of all for those very subjects whose name it is policed in.

Tony Abbott, the knifed and deposed former Australian prime minister, was a product of that empire. The British imperium, for him, transmuted the world from barbaric base metal into the solid gold of civilization.

It is all the same rhetorical baggage that drives post-colonial historians and writers to focused indignation: the rule of law, liberal institutions, protection of property. To that end, empire builders are to be cherished, not reviled. They are not to be seen as plunderers so much as givers.

One of those figures is Cecil Rhodes, whose spirit must have awoken from a slumber with the news that his statue in Oxford University’s Oriel College, along with a plaque – would be removed. “Remember that you are an Englishman,” he famously said, “and have consequently won the first prize in the lottery of life.”

The 2,300 signatures of the Must Go Oxford campaign were of different opinion. The student campaigners claim that this Rhodes tribute “violates the university’s declared aim of fostering an inclusive culture which promotes equality.”

Rhodes, whose name ended up being given to a state he did much to create, was so interested in the empire building project he became its caricature, brushing aside opposition, and misreading his enemies. His miscalculation over Boer resistance in South Africa proved costly.

When the earth had reached a point when terrestrial empires could go no further, Rhodes would lament that limitation, bound, as he was, to the planet. “To think of these stars that you see overhead at night, these vast worlds which we can never reach. I could annex the planets if I could; I often think of that. It makes me sad to see them so clear and yet so far.”

When Rhodes died in March 1902, The Guardian editorialised that, “The judgment of history will, we fear, be that he did more than any Englishman of his time to lower the reputation and to impair the strength and compromise the future of the Empire.” This type of man was demagogic, manipulatively cunning, a capacity “which makes men do either good or evil on a great scale.” According to the editors, he democratised modern political intrigue; he frightened or excited populaces, and misled them when necessary.

Any one with an iota of sense would know that Rhodes Scholarships, the very direct legacy left by the empire builder, are distinctly based on rigging lotteries, rather than letting them function. Selection of candidates is based on imitation, not novelty: former Rhodes Scholars are less total book worms than the essence of the Commonwealth man.

As the Rhodes testament outlined, the scholarship would create “a Secret Society, the true aim and object whereof shall be for the extension of British rule throughout the world” with the “perfecting of a system of emigration from the United Kingdom, and for colonisation by British subjects of all lands where the means of livelihood are attainable by energy, labour and enterprise”.

This, at least, was their origin, and while deviations from the norm do and have happened, the establishment principle of this “secret society” remains important for selection committees. It is one of functioning elites: once there, make sure that everything is controlled to the extent possible. The colonising motif is never far away.

Abbott should know: he was a member of this society, and graduated from Oxford in 1983. And he ticked all the boxes of Rhodes’ vision: he could muster a few lines when needed, take to the sporting fields when required and be a good institution man when asked.

His response to the proposed removal of the Rhodes statue cannot be anything else other than a defence of Britain’s greatest empire builder. Removing the reminder, suggested Abbott would “substitute moral vanity for fair-minded enquiry.”

The various comments, which found their way into The Independent, provide an ample illustration about what Abbott means by such fair-minded enquiry. “The university should remember that its mission is not to reflect fashion but to seek truth and that means striving to understand before rushing to judge.”

Legacy is everything in this. Yes, Rhodes was not a good egg when it came to fighting racism. In truth, he was quite open to its tendencies, laying the ground work for racial regimes in the South Africa he loved stomping in. His death, observed the Guardian, “offers a tragic warning to the practitioners of narrowly materialistic statecraft.”

The obituary’s observation about Rhodes is a fine warning for Abbott himself, a creature of that very narrow variant of materialistic statecraft. His own time as prime minister was demagogic, divisive and dismissive. But Abbott prefers a neat little twist: the Rhodes Scholarships that came from the pocket of good generous Cecil did much to fund those who opposed racism. Good eggs can come from imperfect ones.

Abbott might seem crass in his views, but the issue is far more a case of understanding what lies behind the statue. The Rhodes legacy is an imperial one, and not having his reminder around could give the rather false impression about how empire was built. We need those dirty reminders, and there are few better places to have them than Oriel College, though others suggest a museum.

To that end, the contemporary Guardian editorial takes a slightly different position on Rhodes from that in 1902, lauding the engagement of the Rhodes Trust with Nelson Mandela Foundation to fund joint Mandela Rhodes scholarships in 2003 and engage with the “Redress Rhodes” movement. “It is better to have the issue out in the open than to pretend it is mere posturing about symbols.”

Sri Lanka: Year 2015 In Review – Analysis

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By Dr Kumar David

An annual review of the political conjuncture of Lanka to be useful to overseas readers must deal with six matters: (a) the still fluid situation in governmental and state power, (b) the deal with the UN Human Rights Commission on investigation of war crimes, (c) indeterminacy in economic direction, (d) an economic relationship with India in the context of Make-in-India (MiI), (e) receding prospects of a new constitution but nevertheless urgent need for electoral reforms and devolution of power to Northern Tamils, and (f) the return to Lanka’s tradition of non-alignment, and in the Twenty-first Century context a balance between India and China consistent with global and regional realities.

State and government

The shortcomings of the Ranil-Sirisena (R&S) government so far are not fatal and it is working as well as a coalition contraption can be expected to. Its positive achievements are limited but it is not a rotten den of thieves and alleged homicidal ‘sons of the great’ like the previous one. The Mafia State erected during the Rajapaksa presidency has not been dismantled; only the surface scratched. Rajapaksa’s defeat, exposed a web of crime, intrigue, and a network of family based infamy. Herein lies the crux of an unenviable dilemma for S&R whose government is not a similar den of thieves but it has done nothing to bring to book the crooks and criminals of the outgoing regime. [Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW) is prime minister and leader of the UNP, Maithripala Sirisena (MS) president and leader of the SLFP]

What has happened about the alleged coup on January 8-9 night about which PM and Foreign Minister were outspoken at one time? Nothing! A Sri Lankan Airlines probe exposed glaring malpractices, the Chairman even diverting flights to arrange sexual encounters with female cabin crew; but no follow up action. The Highways Ministry (of Mahinda Rajapaksa) where billions were robbed has not been probed. The return of military occupied land has up to now been a cosmetic exercise. Thousands languish in prison under draconian anti-democratic laws without trial. The previous regime was so debauched that not being as bad as it is no achievement.

Challenges

The next period will throw up two challenges on the Tamil issue; devolution in the proposed new constitution (more on this later) and the agreement with the UNHRC to probe human rights violations and war crimes during the civil war. A few political knuckles may be rapped, lightly, but military personnel will be whitewashed, but there is little point in rejecting the process. The best hope is that the loathsome brutality (LTTE included) will be dragged into the sunlight and Lanka will benefit from this cathartic experience. For Sinhala chauvinists however this is an explosive opportunity. The hybrid investigative mechanism with foreign participation that is to be set up is dynamite in chauvinist hands. There will be a battle to get the process going at all. The balance of forces however is favourable and the January 8 and August 17 electoral mandates can be used to smash the racists on the streets.

The economy

The first reading of the Budget showed a deficit of SL Rs 1.35 trillion (million-million); at 11.8% of GDP this was appalling! It is more comprehensible in dollars – $ 9.51 billion at SL Rs 142 to a $. The job of finance minister Ravi Karunanayake was to bridge the gap but this has not done to the satisfaction of business, the wage earning classes or economists. The second reading does not chart a development strategy; it is just a bookkeeping exercise, a reconciliation of revenue and expenditure. This is acceptable if elsewhere a policy framework, a strategy for economic development existed. It does not! In advanced capitalist countries the budget is indeed only a bookkeeping exercise in taxation and balancing revenue and expenditure. Such is the bill US presidents send to Congress or British Chancellors table in Parliament. There are no directives detailing specific investments; these are left to the wisdom of companies. Lanka has chosen this incongruent path.

The PM said in the House in January 2015:

“The state of public finances exposes the shady operations of the previous government. The façade of duplicity has to be removed and the actual position made known. (i) The previous government gave Rs 524 billion as Treasury Guarantees to commercial banks to implement infrastructure projects by state-owned enterprises (SOE). (ii) The outstanding debt of SOEs to the local banking system is Rs 593 billion. (iii) Foreign borrowings of SOEs at end-2014 was US $ 2.36 billion or Rs 308 billion. The outstanding government debt at end-2014 including these three items is Rs 8.8 trillion”. [Rs 8.8 trillion is 78 % of GDP].

A medium term (3-5 year) program that avoids two mantras canvassed by the business classes is imperative. One mantra is that it must be an all export oriented effort and the other intones that it must all be left to the private sector. Both suggestions, in moderation, have a point but it is a balanced approach that is more to the point. Export performance is crucial to correct the foreign trade account, wind down the huge debt burden and create employment, but domestic concerns are of greater concern. The private sector is dynamic, efficient and can raise capital, but it not be allowed the freedom of the wild ass to evade directive principles of state economic policy. The problem is that obsession with exports is accompanied by considerable ideological baggage. A stock in trade is anti-working class legislation euphemistically called ‘labour market reform’ (easier firing, curbs on collective bargaining and trade unions, physical and legislative hostility to strikes). Strangely there is greater pressure to implement such measures in the third-word than in the West.

Extreme export orientation is accompanied by heavy reliance on foreign investment and a frame of mind driven by this obsession overwhelms policy makers. Over- reliance on the private sector implies surrender to big business and neglects the interests and needs of the less well-off. Then there is the matter of the product mix which should not only earn profits for capital but also satisfy people’s needs. Lanka is weak in food security except rice and marine products; nutrition and protein deficiency is also a concern; the dilapidated state of the national housing stock is a shocker. Resources have to be set aside to improve deplorable public education and healthcare. Colombo needs a suburban railway.

This is a centre-right government; the centre is its populist and democratic mandate, the right the strong business interests represented by the UNP and SLFP. Therefore policy could drift anywhere from mild social democracy to anti-populist austerity. It could lean on mass and civil society action to thwart a chauvinist backlash against the war-crimes probe. If it opts for this populist political response, it will also move in social-democratic directions in economic matters. On the other hand the PM (the President counts for less) may shift into authoritarian gear mimicking Lee Kuwan Yew.

Another crucial point is that policy makers and planners in Lanka neglect or are hostile to the informal sector. However, this sector is nimble, productive and generates large amount of employment. Economic policy must include recognition, credit facilities and regulatory assistance for this sector. A national planning framework with a light touch, staffed by intelligent people not bureaucrats can do much to guide the government. The state must assert itself. I have in mind more than the conventional triple-task of managing interest rates, exchange rate and capital controls. Lanka’s experience of the Rajapaksa state pushing people around has been revolting, but the public understands that a greedy dictatorship is not the same as the guiding hand of the state in setting directions of growth. The citadels of Asian capitalism – South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore – were the pioneers; China and Vietnam were late comers to the concept of the state directing private, public-foreign and public-foreign-private development models.

Economic link with MiI

Is Modi wedded to capitalist development? Well yes and no. RW’s oxymoron “social-capitalism” bears a caricatured but better fit to Modi than to himself. Modi wants changes which will delight business but he also pushes reforms that are needed whatever the system; overhauling the leviathan bureaucracy, cutting inefficiency and curbing the licence-raj. The centrepiece is ‘Make in India’ which seems to be paying off. India has overtaken China as the world’s fastest growing large economy in percentage rates; estimated at 8% for 2016 and set to rise to 10% in 2017. Absolute growth still lags China – the Indian economy grew $6 trillion in 2015, China’s $17 trillion. Twenty-five priority areas are identified in MiI. Lanka can participate to advantage and with the world’s fastest growing economy at our doorstep it is foolish not. Below I include areas suitable for standalone local investment, areas that may attract foreign direct investment and topics that can be linked to MiI. Some are good for private business or for public-private partnerships and possible joint ventures between the Lankan state and foreign capital.

Optical products: This is not photonics but conventional illumination, fittings, shades and chandeliers.

Photonics: The infant photonics industry in India. India has only 25 photonics (light emitting devices, optical fibres, lasers, connectors, and components) manufacturers. Compared to China its capability is minuscule. If where China has gone is where India will have to go, the sky is the limit and Lanka can cash in as a partner.

IT, IoT and Data Mining: Lanka turns out large numbers of IT graduates in private colleges and universities, but compared to other Asian countries makes scant use of them. IoT (Internet of Things) is products packed with sensors wirelessly connected, or via smartphones, to service and alarm centres to order spare parts, transmit alerts, enhance inventory control and assist supply-chain management. Data Mining relies on open-data availability; the vast number of databases coming on-line can be used for GPS, mapping, transport timetables, tele-medicine, traffic monitoring, data logging and other apps.

Health Tourism: Private hospitals have core facilities but a state sponsored health tourism programme is missing; coordination of health service provision with long-term stay facilities and tax policy. The programme can be predicated on a compulsory requirement that private hospitals open-up parallel medium or low priced outpatient, hospitalisation and surgical facilities for locals.

Arrack, cigarettes and the sin industry: China is the world’s largest cigarette market with an insatiable demand. Scotland, France, Australia, Spain and Italy, and newer Chile, Argentina, New Zealand, Georgia and Albania are into a huge wine and spirits market. All target sectors for a Make-in-Lanka strategy.

Value added agricultural products: Cinnamon, fruits and Lanka’s expertise in agricultural research. Thailand has superb quick-cooked-and-frozen sea food exports – shrimp, squid, crab and small to medium sized fish. The great benefit of this industry is its backward depth, aqua-culture. Sea fishing cannot satisfy local demand so export success implies large scale aqua-culture. In China the visitor sees aqua farms as often as normal agriculture and in interior provinces no sea or river products are on the menu – it is all aqua farmed. Lanka with bountiful rainfall and lots of flat terrain is perfect for aqua-culture.

Toilets: Modi is campaigning against a millennial tradition of alfresco crapping making the country a market for sanitary-ware and sewerage products. Lanka has firms in ceramic and sewerage related lines.

A new constitutional dispensation

UNP, SLFP and JVP have ruled out the federalism word. TNA leader Sampanthan proposed a sensible compromise. He proposed three to five regions with devolved power: “Rather than so many ministers in the centre why not have three to five regions vested with substantial powers of governance? There are many young members of Parliament who could be ministers and chief ministers in these regions. Allow each part of the country to be ruled such that people are served best. India has 29 states; the country is united and stays together because people’s aspirations are respected, honoured and implemented. States have preserved linguistic, cultural and religious interests”.

The devil is in two details; what powers to devolve and what retain at the Centre, what should be the units of devolution? Direct devolution to local governments from the Centre without an intermediate regional layer will not be helpful, nor will it address the Tamil people’s desire for a unit of their own. Five regional units seems correct. Three is too few for people to feel they have a unit of their own or provide openings as regional leaders for “young members of parliament”.

Salvaging non-alignment

The R&S government is sensitive to the need to return to genuine non-aligned foreign policy. It is unthinkable to let relations with China go down the tubes; China is important for economic development. While tilting back to a balanced stance such as renewing long cherished ties with India and repairing damaged links with the West, we must have the survival instinct to sustain friendship with China. The mandarins are no fools, they see that our disarray is of Rajapaksa provenance and understand that the new government must act against manifest sleaze. If the Rajapaksas are locked up or strung up, not a tear will be shed in the Middle Kingdom.

China is holding up the Colombo Port City project as a link in its Maritime Silk Road and staunchly defends it: “We believe Sri Lanka will act in its long-term interests, advance practical cooperation with China, properly handle relevant issues, keep Chinese companies interested in investing in Sri Lanka and protect their lawful rights and interests” said Assistant Foreign Minister Liu Jianchao and added “It meets Sri Lanka’s needs and can bring tangible benefits to the people”.

Colombo is waffling over the project, it does not want to alienate Beijing, but neither can it back off on key anxieties. The sticking point is ceding land to a foreign power. In my view, the concept of turning Colombo Fort into a pseudo-Shanghai artifice of neon lights, high-rises and a fake enclave of finance-capital will neither serve the people of Lanka nor promote robust development. It is harmful irrespective of graft, sovereignty and environmental stumbling blocks. But alas the trap has been sprung and we are so ensnared that finding a way out may be impossible.

Turkey: Two Suspects Arrested With Links To Ankara New Year’s Bomb Plot

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Turkish police have arrested two suspects over an alleged suicide bomb plot to attack New Year’s Eve revelers in the capital Ankara, officials said Wednesday.

The suspects – identified as M.C. and A.Y. – are said to be members of Daesh who planned to attack the city’s main square, which is the scene of annual Dec. 31 celebrations.

Ankara was targeted by twin suicide bombings on Oct. 10, when 103 people were killed in an attack on protesters gathering outside the city’s main train station for a peace rally.

The attack, which left hundreds wounded, was the deadliest in modern Turkish history and has been attributed to Daesh supporters.

Ankara Chief Prosecutor’s office said the suspects had targeted two locations near Kizilay, a shopping and restaurant district in the heart of the city, and were equipped with explosive vests packed with steel ball bearings.

Prosecutors said the arrests were carried out in Yakup Abdal, a neighborhood on the southern outskirts of Ankara, but gave no detail on the timing of the police operation.

The suspects are being held by counter-terrorist police.

Original article

Unlighted Aspect Of Wilson’s Legacy: Racist Views And Segregationist Policies – OpEd

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By Emre Turkut*

It attracted great attention worldwide when students from Princeton University demanded the name of Woodrow Wilson, who served as the 28th President of United States, be removed from the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Relations and from Wilson College, a residential college named after Wilson.

A group of students, called the Black Justice League, outlined a list of demands and called the university to openly acknowledge the racist legacy of Wilson. The president of Princeton University, Christopher Eisgruber, has agreed to further discussions and, as a gesture of goodwill, promised the removal of the large mural of Wilson from Wilson College. It will soon be evident whether or not the demands of the students were too hefty when Eisgruber begins discussions with the trustees, a group to which Eisgruber himself belongs.

Woodrow Wilson is, without a doubt, an important figure for the studies of international law and relations. The 19th century marks the most profound period of change and transformation, aside from the 16th century, that gave birth to a political system called the Westphalian order, placing sovereign states in its centre. In this era, as a result of proliferation and an increase in terms of economic, trading and socio-cultural relation between nation states, a more “internationalized” system was needed. Here, Woodrow Wilson was the one to embody the steps, aiming to respond to the metamorphosis that the “internationalized” system underwent in the 19th Century. Wilson, who also served as the president of Princeton University from 1902 to 1910, put forth the new dynamics of the international system by introducing the 14 Points in 1918. He even proposed to set up a union over all states to guarantee the sovereignty and political independence of smaller states. This idea itself underlined the very foundation of the League of Nations. Starting from the “world government” League of Nations to the United Nations, today international organizations play a vital role in the functioning of the international system. This, indeed, gives us a clue as to the value of the legacy that was inherited from Wilson.

However, a “racial-justice” themed wave has been sweeping across American universities since September 2015. The wave finally hit Princeton University when the students stormed the president’s office and demanded the removal of Wilson’s name from all programs and buildings. Since, the discussions on acknowledged but unlighted and seldom discussed aspects of Wilson’s legacy blazed out: his racist views and segregationist policies during his time as president.

Woodrow Wilson, who held office as governor of New Jersey before becoming the president in 1913, was born in Virginia and raised in Georgia and South Carolina. “Woodrow Wilson: A Biography” by John Milton Cooper reveals certain facts about Wilson’s father, including that he was a slave owner and a passionate Confederation supporter. American historians agree on the notion that Wilson has deep sympathy –even love – for the Klu Klux Klan.

It is also not original or new to claim that his racist views turned into segregationist and bigoted policies when he began his first term as president in 1913.

As an academic reference, in his famous book “Racism in the Nation’s Service: Government Workers and the Color Line in Woodrow Wilson’s America”, author Eric Yellin writes that Wilson had imposed Jim Crow laws on the federal government, conducted discriminatory policies, fired many innocent black Americans and replaced them with staff who share his segregationist views. It is no surprise to conclude that this discrimination was established as a national norm in the Wilsonian era.

Conclusions must be made cautiously since it is very common to treat Wilson’s potential racism as an anachronism. However, it can be said that Wilson was a racist by the conjuncture of the 1910s and by today’s understandings and standards. As a historical record, W.E.B. DuBois writes in his letter of 1913 to Wilson as an uprising to his racist policies, “…President Woodrow Wilson, that is the burden of our great cry to you. We want to be treated as men. We want to vote. We want our children educated. We want lynching stopped. We want no longer to be herded as cattle on street cars and railroads.” DuBois, in a cynical and bitter manner, as a way of reminding Wilson of the anti-negro attitude of his university presidency, also writes, “To the quiet walls of Princeton where no Negro student is admitted, the noise of the fight and the reek of its blood may have penetrated but vaguely and dimly.” These salient examples show that Wilson’s racism was not a matter of a few unfortunate remarks but a fundamental part of his political identity. Hence, it is possible to agree with many American historians who claim that Wilson was a racist and white supremacist.

Nevertheless, a distinction must be made at this point. I would not raise a “yes, but” argument when making it. Wilson could be labelled as a racist and segregationist; however, his racism should be weighed separately from his contribution to the international system. As we all know, genius German scholar Carl Schmitt was a Nazi, and even one of the leading Nazi ideologists. The Weimar Republic, according to Schmitt’s work, was not sovereign and only Nazis could save the German people from the Weimar Republic and establish sovereignty. Schmitt’s ideas, surely, were enough to make him a dangerous genius; however, they did not eradicate his contribution from international academia. Just the same, Wilson’s personal convictions and number of policies should not eradicate his contributions from the international system and society, and thus, from mankind.

*Emre Turkut holds an LLM from the University of Kent, UK. Mr. Turkut is an active researcher in the field of public international law, international criminal law and human rights law and has published works in national and international journals.

Connecting Malaysia To China’s ‘Iron Silk Route’– Analysis

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Asia is experiencing a high-speed rail boom. China itself is on the verge of completing 19,000 kilometers of operational High-Speed Railway (HSR) lines, representing 60 percent total global capacity.

In just eight years, China has built the largest network of HSRs on earth. One notable Chinese-initiated project entails the transport of freights and passengers between Beijing and Moscow in just 33 hours. Beijing is currently negotiating HSR projects with more two dozen countries, fulfilling the age-old dream of connecting transoceanic and transcontinental trading routes and hubs into a single matrix.

Thanks to China’s relentless need for new markets, the Trans-Asian Railway (TAR) – aka the “Iron Silk Road” – is being transformed from a 50s-era UN dream into a concrete project today. One of TAR’s southern spurs would create additional economic synergies between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The 10-member ASEAN, with a combined GDP of US$ 2.6 trillion, has surpassed Japan to become China’s largest trading partner. The ASEAN-China trade, in fact, comprised 13 percent of global trade in 2010, and this percentage is growing as rapidly as the economies of East Asia.

Infrastructure is the locomotive of development, and China possesses some uncanny foresight in laying down future tracks. Prior investments in rail technologies are generating cutting-edge dividends. The Beijing-based CRRC (China Railways Rolling-stock Corporation), the country’s largest train manufacturer, recently unveiled a new 690-kilowatt traction system for bullet trains that may exceed speeds of 500km per hour.

Even Germany, the traditional pacesetter of railway technologies, may soon be sourcing components from Chinese manufacturers.

The South East Asian Spur

Malaysia, one of the most-developed economies in the ASEAN region, is experiencing a rail boom as well, particularly in the Kuala Lumpur-centered Klang valley. The Malaysian government may spend up to RM160 billion (CNY 240 billion) on rail-related projects until 2020. It is however facing a shortage of railway engineers, technical support and funding for more ambitious projects like the 350km Kuala Lumpur-Singapore HSR line.

This link will cut travel time between both metropolises to just 90 minutes, compared to the current 4-5 hour journey by road. Ticket prices are projected to cost under RM400 for a return-trip – a highly economical rate considering the RM55 price tag for a one-way Express Rail Link (ERL) trip that connects the city center with the Kuala International Airport only 57km away.

It is a curious comparison that may have prompted AirAsia founder Tony Fernandes to quip that it was “cheaper to fly.”
The KL-Singapore link, expected to cost RM40bil (S$14.8 billion), will benefit both nations in myriad ways. For one, it brings both metropolises closer and may draw MNCs, especially Chinese companies, to consider Kuala Lumpur as a regional motherlode vis-a-vis Singapore. It will alleviate the growing real estate and office overcapacity bubbles in Kuala Lumpur while simultaneously relieving the need for expensive land reclamations in Singapore. The rail line will also greatly decrease congestion along the Johor Baru-Singapore Causeway that links both nations. Business meetings would effectively amount to crossing gleaming new tracks to the other side of the same city.

Chinese companies are wasting no time in seizing opportunities associated with the KL-Singapore link. A China High-Speed Railway Showcase was recently held in Kuala Lumpur to demonstrate China’s expertise in research, engineering, equipment manufacturing, construction, technology innovation, operations and maintenance, as well as personnel capacity building. China’s vastly improved high-speed electric multiple units (EMU) and inter-city train systems were particularly highlighted.

Japan raises the stakes; China lowers costs

China is however facing stiff competition from Japan in the Asian HSR market. Fresh from bagging a $15 billion project in India, Tokyo is now eyeing the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore HSR contract, backed by the technical prowess of established giants like Hitachi and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.

The Japanese package however may not be as generous as that of China. The Chinese HSR may cost half as much, and may be completed as early as 2020, if construction begins by 2016 as scheduled. After all, it took Chinese companies only three years to build and complete the 1,318km Beijing-Shanghai HSR line in 2010.

Beijing’s infrastructure projects worldwide are lubricated by its commonsensical modes of financing. When China agreed to fund the dual-track Bankok-Nong Khai, Bangkok-Map Ta Phut, and Kaeng Khoi-Map Ta Phut routes in Thailand, loan repayments were provisioned in the form of rice and rubber!

Such flexible financing schemes also wean the region away from a dollar dependency, and ring-fences long-term projects against the vagaries of currency fluctuation.

Furthermore, China has been busy positioning itself in Malaysia and the region for some time. In 2013, its leading railway manufacturer, China South Locomotive and Rolling Stock Corporation, began erecting a manufacturing and maintenance centre for the ASEAN market in Batu Gajah, Malaysia. China is the main supplier of rolling stock in Malaysia, cornering 80 percent of the market.

China therefore enjoys an advantage where the KL-Singapore HSR link is concerned.

Completing the Iron Silk Road

The Kuala Lumpur-Singapore link is part of a wider Southeast Asian HSR blueprint, which stretches from Kunming, China to Singapore via Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Malaysia. Nearly all regional HSR projects involve Chinese assistance.
The next phase of the Southeast Asian spur may entail a HSR line for the northern half of the existing Bangkok-Singapore rail link. The primary obstacle here happens to be a secessionist movement in southern Thailand. However, judging by China’s track record in global infrastructure development, Beijing may temper geopolitical bumps in a way other entities may not!

Faster Chinese trains will mesh with Beijing’s ‘Belt & Road’ initiative that ultimately links infrastructure, trade and investment networks throughout Asia, Africa and Europe. The Iron Silk Road is therefore a priority project for Asia.
According to the World Bank, emerging economies have only invested or earmarked $400 billion on infrastructure projects. Asia alone, however, needs $15.8 trillion in infrastructure funding over the next 15 years to maintain its growth trajectory.

Wasn’t it therefore prescient of Beijing to establish the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) recently?

Recent Hunt For NSG Membership – OpEd

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Even though the rumors of a so-called cooperation among the US and Pakistan regarding a civil nuclear deal is now no more on the front, as far as the nuclear cooperation is concerned it is still on the forefront.

Despite all the allegations of Pakistan over its enhanced nuclear development capabilities and likewise the pre-conditions from the west or more precisely from pro-Indian analysts in pursuit of NSG membership, Pakistan has not and will not accept such a discriminatory attitudes. Such conditions are not acceptable for Pakistan unless the proposed initiatives are also taken by India.

On the dilemma of Pakistan’s induction in the NSG club, Pakistan need not fear much, after the latest pledge from its ever green friend China. Recently during the visit of a high-level delegation to Beijing headed by President Mamnoon Hussain, China assured that if India is allowed to get the membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) it will go all out to ensure that Pakistan also joins the group. “The issue was discussed at length and Pakistan highlighted its point of view saying that it has equal right to join the group for fulfilling its requirement for peaceful use of nuclear technology. Islamabad took the plea that if it is deprived of the NSG membership and New Delhi is allowed to join it then it will be discrimination and lead to creating an imbalance in the region. China, being member of the group and holding the veto power, assured Pakistan that it will take all measures so that it also becomes the member of the NSG, and that if India is allowed to join NSG and Pakistan is deprived of the membership of the group, Beijing will veto the move to block Indian entry.”

The NSG chairman has recently visited New Delhi and held a meeting with the Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj as part of a diplomatic effort to build a consensus to admit India into the group in its annual meeting next June 2015. NSG was in fact, a body set-up specifically to restrict the diversion of nuclear material from civilian trade to military purposes.

The clandestine diversion of nuclear material and equipment for the so-called Indian Peaceful Explosion of 1974 was the prime reason behind the creation of NSG, 40 years ago. It is an open secret that the illicit breach its international agreements with Canada, i.e., diverted plutonium from the Canadian-Indian Reactor, US (CIRUS) reactor provided solely for peaceful purpose, led the South Asia region into another regional nuclear arms race.

Although, the group is not a formal organization and its guidelines are not binding, still, its members are expected to incorporate the guidelines into their national export control laws. Ironically, it does not mean that any country’s specific diversion or waiver would become legal under the guidelines of NSG.

Indubitably, to step forward and improve the global non-proliferation goals, putting in new members in NSG would be an encouraging and constructive option. Along with, it would be equally vital to uphold the efficacy and effectiveness of NSG. Therefore, the expansion should be carried out on non-discriminatory bases — by taking-on the Criteria Based Approach.

The meeting of June 26-27 in Buenos Aires called for discussion on the NSG’s relationship with India. In this regard, on June 22, 2014 in Argentina, India ratified its Additional Protocol with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to expand oversight over its civilian nuclear program. This protocol was approved back in 2009 that paved the way for NSG to grant India-specific waiver for it to have commercial relations with other countries in the civilian atomic field. In effect, the waiver was necessary as India, despite being a nuclear-armed state, is not a signatory to the NPT thus does not qualify for nuclear trade. But even then, the US labeled this ratified protocol as another important step in bringing India into the international non-proliferation mainstream.

On the other hand, if the West is merely to gain their economic benefits from the Asia’s third-largest economy (India) and slots for New Delhi in the NSG club then there would be a disaster for the NSG’s credibility, particularly given the irony of accumulating a member whose actions were the very impetus for the organization’s establishment.

For India, NSG membership could boost its international standing as a responsible atomic power and also give it greater influence on issues related to global nuclear trade as many countries are already in line with similar kind of deals as of 2008. However, the country would be the only member of the body that has not signed up to the NPT; signaling an open discriminatory act towards Pakistan. Since, the NSG decisions is taken on consensus, firstly China has reaffirmed it is not going to happen, but if it happens then India would always stand against any civil trade with Pakistan. This then, would result in leading to a regional nuclear arms race as India is and would remain out of NPT and would neither sign CTBT or FMCT, nor go for the Nuclear Weapons Free Zone. It would be pertinent to say that west’s recent demands to sign CTBT, FMCT; restrain from FSD, etc., is in fact a joke without asking the country who actually was the first player in this regional race to comply.


Modi’s Big Challenge: Refashioning India’s Education System – OpEd

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By Amit Dasgupta*

The emergence of a knowledge-driven society demonstrated that everything can and must change and that the process is a continuous search for better solutions. Indeed, new scientific discoveries and technological innovations have become an integral part of our everyday biography. Objects we had grown accustomed to have been replaced by newer and more efficient products. If anything is truly permanent, it is change itself.

Yet the vast majority of people continue to have a pathological anathema towards change. They harbour feelings of great mistrust because they perceive change as an explicit acknowledgement of failure. Consequently, they are steadfast in their refusal to accept that the failure to shift thinking would, most certainly, lead to their obsolescence.

Research has substantively established an inter-linkage between countries that embrace innovation and thus, change, and economic prosperity. People in such countries think different. They are more adventurous, less risk averse and open to experimenting. Governments and the bureaucracy in emerging or developing economies, on the other hand, tend to suffer from an acute disavowal of all that challenges existing paradigms. New ways of seeing worry them. Consequently, our schools and colleges are unable to respond to the rapidly changing educational needs of a knowledge economy.

This has serious consequences. First, it adversely impacts economic growth because the quality of education is the principal driver of the growth engine. And second because bad education does not lead to employability in a globally competitive environment. This is a profound and not imagined disaster that India credibly faces and will, most certainly, undermine India’s aspirations as a global thinker.

So, what is the role of education?

To paraphrase Nietzsche, all human action needs to be based on what we wish to achieve. Education, similarly, must have an end-objective. For students, it is productive and sustained employability. For governments, this translates into contributing to the GDP. If education underachieves in this stated objective, it would be perceived as a failure, since more and more young people would become unemployable.

What this requires is the radical shaking up of the education system. First, this would ensure that the dead wood and dried-up leaves fall off. Second, the system would be reformatted to achieve the 21st century objectives. In short, we need to usher in an educational revolution and not just an evolution of teaching techniques. Yesterday’s curriculum and pedagogy has to give way to future needs and requirements. In effect this means shifting from an education system that was crafted during the industrial era to one that is in consonance with the present-day demands of an ever-changing environment. In other words, the very DNA of education – both at the school and university level – needs to be changed.

For India, this is the need of the day. She is at the cusp of transformational change. Global perception of her attractiveness is remarkably upbeat. She has been invited to the high table. However, all these positive developments are directly related to whether India would deliver on promise and expectation. Is she, in other words, a safe bet? The attractiveness of the Indian workforce would be the key for corporate investors. This means that education would need to produce a world class workforce that is in consonance with the expectations of the corporate investor.

This requires a fundamental overhaul in the way we perceive what education needs to deliver. First, the education environment cannot be divorced from the external landscape. The ‘in-here’ experience needs to be directly linked to the ‘out-there’ experience. Our schools and universities are not a comfort zone or an idyllic island resort but rather deeply rooted in the here-and-now. The outside world is complex, volatile and unpredictable. Students need to be taught to embrace uncertainty and not be intimidated by it. Indeed, the job they would end up doing has not yet been created.

Did any of us realistically believe, when we were students, that a living could be made designing apps? Second, education needs to inculcate learning agility. In other words, education must craft persons who are open to new ideas, who are constantly learning new skills and willing to apply them but more importantly, learning from experience and failure. Third, we need to learn the importance of team work and focus. Teams are not a collection of silos but an integrated circuit with a clear objective. And finally, education administrators need to recognize that the teacher is simply a facilitator. Unless education is refashioned, we would embrace the 21st century with a 19th century mindset. The result would be failure.

Restructuring the approach towards contemporary education, accordingly, needs to incorporate the following, among others:

1.Learning about learning: The teaching community and education administrators need to recognize the need to shift from teaching to learning. This is the transition from the sage on the stage to a co-learner. Substantive evidence exists of teachers abandoning the chalk and talk methodology with dramatic results.

2. Shifting the mind-set of education providers: The fundamental paradox is that teaching is provided by an older generation to a younger one leading to a credible likelihood of a mismatch and disconnect in thinking, understanding and communication. Education is all about connecting and thus, interpersonal relations. Students need to be able to relate to their teachers. If this is lacking, education would fail to meet the high societal expectations.

3. Embrace the Internet: The Internet has made learning possible 24×7 without the teacher. Unfortunately, while the teaching community acknowledges the transformative impact of the Internet, the whole-hearted embrace is perfunctory. Consequently, educational institutions are unable to take full advantage of the incredible world the Internet opens up, which, for the most part, is entirely free.

4. Redesigning Space: Design has assumed significance and rightly so. Studies have demonstrated how design impacts thinking. Various corporate offices are moving into open style functioning and a fluid utilization of space with funky designs that are immediately attractive. Schools and classrooms have, similarly, started changing. Indeed, even the term ‘classroom’ is being replaced with ‘learning centres’. The consequent requirement is for the campus and the learning centres to become interactive, engaging and functional. They play a dramatic role in shifting pedagogy to a modern mindset.

5. Globalization is Multiculturalism: A rapidly integrating world has substantially diluted geographical boundaries. The role of the educational institutions needs to recognize this dramatic new requirement and help open minds, so that we are sensitive and welcoming of other cultures.

The future is hurtling towards us at an extraordinary pace. Unless education is refashioned by a visionary leadership, we face the dire consequence of being left out of the mainstream. This is one of the great challenges Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces.

*Amit Dasgupta, a former Indian diplomat, heads the Mumbai campus of the SP Jain School of Global Management. He may be reached at amit.dasgupta@spjain.org

Islamic State in Horn Of Africa: An Imminent Alliance With Al-Shabaab? – Analysis

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The Islamic State in Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS) is expanding into Somalia with factions of the Al Shabaab militant groups pledging allegiance to its “caliph” Abu Bakar Al Baghdadi. Will these defections split the Al Qaeda-affiliated Al Shabaab or empower IS in the Horn of Africa?

By Nur Aziemah Binte Azman and Syed Huzaifah Bin Othman Alkaff*

Last October, ISIS released seven videos featuring its fighters from Somalia as well as those from North Africa and Southeast Asia. The videos urge militants, referred to as ‘Mujahideen’, in Somalia to join the ranks of ISIS, stressing the importance of unity and danger of division. They emphasise the obligation to give bai’ah (pledge of allegiance) to IS “Caliph” Abu Bakar Al-Baghdadi, and advise that if leaders of the Mujahideen in Somalia refuse to give bai’ah, fighters should defect.

They promise that unity between the Somali Mujahideen and ISIS will bring them benefits such as receiving more support and gaining more victories on the battlefield. Groups in Libya, West Africa and Yemen were cited as examples of those who have pledged allegiance and reaped the benefits of unity.

Reasons for ISIS-Al Shabaab tie-up

For ISIS, there are several benefits from the alliance with Al-Shabaab. Having established its branch in neighbouring Yemen, ISIS may be able to create a safe haven in Somalia as well as passage for its fighters to cross back and forth from the Middle East via the Gulf of Aden to Africa via the Horn of Africa.

In addition, its location in the Horn of Africa has considerable importance for trade routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, piracy being one of the issues faced by vessels travelling through those routes. If ISIS were to secure the Horn of Africa and exploit piracy, it may benefit ISIS economically as well as strategically by targeting vessels.

ISIS’ expansion into Somalia is to find organised local groups and seed them with resource and training to pursue systematic violence. Through this strategy, ISIS has succeeded in expanding into Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Nigeria. Al-Shabaab is an effective military organisation, therefore merging with the group will shape local conditions and prepare the ground for ISIS’ future expansion into the rest of the Horn and East Africa.

Al-Shabaab: A house divided

However, despite ISIS’ persistent attempts to pull Al-Shabaab into its ranks, Al-Qaeda still holds sway over the Somali group, given Al-Shabaab’s history and Al-Qaeda’s presence in Somalia. Having trained with the Taliban in Afghanistan, Ahmed Abdi Godane, the former leader of Al-Shabaab had been associated with Osama bin Laden. Al-Qaeda’s presence in Somalia can be traced back to the early 2000s while senior Al-Qaeda members have worked alongside Al-Shabaab since its official formation in 2006.

In this respect, Al-Qaeda has a marked advantage over Al-Shabaab, compared to ISIS. Following the death of Godane in August 2014 and the appointment of Ahmed Omar Diiriye, aka Abu Ubaidah as the new leader, the group promptly reaffirmed its allegiance and loyalty to Al-Qaeda.

However, the group has been suffering from a power struggle in its leadership even before its merger with Al-Qaeda in 2012. With deep clan loyalties in Somalia, Al-Shabaab has been having difficulties advancing a unified cause. It has long been divided between leaders whose interests are nationalistic, others who desire to rule Somalia under the Shariah criminal code, and yet others who are faithful to Al-Qaeda and its vision of global jihad.

Likelihood of alliance?

The release of the videos marks the first time ISIS is aggressively calling the Somali militants to join its ranks. On Twitter, through the # Mujahid of Somalia hashtag, supporters of ISIS retweet the videos and express their support and encouragement for the fighters in Somalia, namely Al-Shabaab to join the group. The videos have inspired supporters to write opinion pieces on the matter and share them online. Some criticise Al-Shabaab for their delay and inaction in pledging allegiance to Al-Baghdadi.

This campaign, however, is not ISIS’ first attempt at persuading Al-Shabaab to join its ranks. Last March, a few weeks prior to Nigeria’s Boko Haram’s announcement of allegiance to ISIS, an ‘emissary’ of ISIS called Hamil Al-Bushra released an audio message praising ‘brothers in Somalia’, encouraging them to attack “inside Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia”, and advised Abu Ubaidah, leader of Al-Shabaab to pledge loyalty to ISIS.

There were also social media posts by Al-Shabaab fighters who have expressed a desire to leave the group for ISIS, further fuelling rumours of a split between pro-Al-Qaeda and pro-ISIS supporters within Al-Shabaab. Nevertheless, the group has the support of both Al-Qaeda and ISIS followers. Furthermore, Al-Shabaab’s propaganda materials are often released through and shared on both pro-ISIS and pro-Al-Qaeda online forums.

The likelihood of Al-Shabaab abandoning its allegiance to Al Qaeda remains low even if there are individual cases of fighters defecting to and supporting ISIS. Already, Abdul Qadir Mu’min, one of Al-Shabaab’s religious leaders, along with about 20 of his followers, have pledged allegiance to Al-Baghdadi on 23 October. Additionally, 27 fighters from Somalia, though it’s unclear if they were members of Al-Shabaab, have also appeared in an ISIS video and gave their allegiance to ISIS on 8 November. Further, on 8 December, another group of Somali militants, allegedly Al-Shabaab members, led by an individual identified as Abu Nu’man Al-Yintari, also gave their allegiance to ISIS in a video.

Implications

Two weeks after the announcement of Mu’min’s and his followers’ defection, Al-Shabaab’s official spokesperson, Ali Dhere warned that Al-Shabaab will track down members who attempt to defect. Al-Yintari has allegedly been assassinated by Al-Shabaab for his defection. A strong faction within the group is reported to have favoured joining ISIS owing to a financial crisis faced by Al-Shabaab in the past three years.

Online, while Mu’min and his followers were applauded for their allegiance by pro-ISIS supporters on Twitter, there are many who are against the alliance. Many condemned and criticised those who join and support ISIS, indicating that Al-Shabaab’s supporter base is still firmly loyal to Al-Qaeda.

Some supporters even speculated that Ali Dhere’s stern warning accentuated the rifts and differences that have long existed within, and that it also stems from the fear within the leadership of the overwhelming support for ISIS. However, should Al-Shabaab as a group pledge allegiance to ISIS, the alliance would perhaps help alleviate Al-Shabaab’s financial as well as other challenges. For its part ISIS would benefit from Al Shabaab’s allegiance by its establishment in the strategic Horn of Africa.

*Nur Aziemah Binte Azman and Syed Huzaifah Bin Othman Alkaff are Research Analysts with the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR) at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

What Will Happen To Russia If Oil Falls Below Ten US Dollars A Barrel – OpEd

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The dependence of the Kremlin on the price of oil has long been obvious. A year ago, some wags suggested that if oil prices fell to the level they are now, Vladimir Putin would not only pull his forces out of Ukraine but apologize to Kyiv and even begin to learn Ukrainian himself.

Now that oil prices are in the mid-30 dollar range, some analysts are speculating that they will fall still further, possibly to below ten dollars a barrel, something that might not have the impact last year’s joke suggests but that will clearly put additional constraints on Moscow and possibly provoke even more radical changes as a result.

One of the most thoughtful discussions of these possibilities is provided by Kirill Lyats, the general director of Moscow’s Metaprotsess” analysis company in an article on the RBC portal entitled “Apocalypse Today: What Will Happen When Oil Falls Below $10” (rbc.ru/opinions/business/28/12/2015/5680e1d69a7947d429577223).

Lyats begins by asking: “Will [the Russian] economy survive if the price of oil is below 10 dollars a barrel?” And he answers, “of course,” it will. Indeed, oil was at that price as recently as 1998-1999. What matters is “not the absolute price for oil but the structure of spending” not only in the petroleum sector but in the economy as a whole.

Even when oil prices were that low, some companies continued to invest in the development of fields because “sometimes, the correct strategy is not to react to the crisis but to act according to the plan one has set.” Not all companies are in a position to do that, and in reality in Russia, those among major firms that could are “extremely few.”

When oil prices were high, many of them got used to acting as if they would always be that way, and the government assumed that its best strategy was to monopolize them and expand abroad rather than to develop the branch and the economy at home as a whole. Now it is paying the price for that miscalculation.

If oil prices continue to fall, Lyats says, there are some obvious steps that the Russian government and Russian firms must take. First of all, they must cut costs. The government must cut fees or even eliminate them altogether so that corruption will be reduced; and firms must become more competitive and efficient.

That will involve cutting salaries and wages in the oil and gas sector, something that will have a snowball effect both in other sectors and on government incomes. But once the shocks have been absorbed – and they can be, the Moscow analyst says – the country will be better off for the future.

This all can be achieved, he suggests, by “a broad, decisive and well-organized deflation” and by reducing the role of the state in the economy so that bureaucrats and officials won’t be able to act as parasites on the economic activities of others via licenses, fees, and corrupt activities, he continues.

Indeed, Russia should be ready for a new round of even more serious privatization, something that could be promoted by “decriminalizing economic crimes” and the selling off of many state companies whose managements have been anything but competent, having grown fat and lazy in the times of high oil prices.

Another step Moscow should take is one that the US took 40 years ago: it should prohibit the export of oil, a step that would not only drive prices up, a trend Russian firms with oil interests abroad could exploit, but also have the effect of forcing the petroleum sector in Russia to investing more money in oil processing firms, whose products are in every case more valuable and profitable than oil itself, especially when the latter is so cheap.

Some ideas now being floated won’t work, Lyats says. The defense industry won’t be a driver of growth, he says. “The Soviet Union clearly showed that.” Instead, the growth of defense firms will simply become yet another way for officials and their allies in business to raid the treasury.

“There must be a privatization of [Russia’s] military-industry complex” just as there must be one in the civilian sector. Any further monopolization will only promote “the degradation of thought and production. Not everything in this regard is now visible, but in the medium term, our backwardness will become ever more obvious.”

One sector the government should be promoting, the Moscow analyst continues, is atomic energy, but even more important, it should be investing in transportation and logistics both for the domestic market and for Russia’s role as an emerging transportation hub between Europe and Asia.

Summing up, Lyats says that “the prospects of the fall of oil to below ten dollars a barrel are not a threat but the last chance to change things for the better, to stop fattening snobs and bureaucrats and to get involved in real production within the country, to change its approaches to spending and in general to become more tight-fisted, economic and effective.”

Open Letter To Young Muslims Everywhere: The Seed Of Triumph In Every Adversity – OpEd

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When I was a little boy, I used to dream of being reborn outside the hardship of the Refugee Camp in Gaza, in some other time and place where there were no soldiers, no military occupation, no concentration camps and no daily grind – where my father fought for our very survival, and my mother toiled to balance out the humiliation of life with her enduring love.

When I grew older, and revisited my childhood fantasies, I came to quite a different conclusion: if I had to, I would do it all over again, I would not alter my past, however trying, in any way. I would embrace every moment, relive every tear, every loss, and cherish every triumph, however small.

When we are young, they often fail to tell us that we should not fear pain and dread hardship; that nothing can be as rewarding to the growth of one’s identity, sense of purpose in life and the liberation of the human spirit than the struggle against injustice. True, one should never internalize servitude or wear victimhood as if a badge; for the mere act of resisting poverty, war and injustice of any kind is the first and most essential criterion to prepare one for a more meaningful existence, and a better life.

I say this because I understand what many of you must be going through. My generation of refugee camp dwellers experienced this in the most violent manifestation you can ever imagine. These are difficult and challenging years for most of humanity, but all the more for you, young Muslims, in particular. Between the racism of American and European politicians and parties, the anti-Muslim sentiment sweeping much of the world, propagated by selfish individuals with sinister agendas, playing on people fears and ignorance, and the violence and counter-violence meted out by groups that refer to themselves as ‘Muslims’, you find yourself trapped, confined in a prison of stereotypes, media hate speech and violence; targeted, labeled and, undeservedly, feared.

Most of you were born into, or grew up in that social and political confinement and remember no particular time in your past when life was relatively normal, when you were not the convenient scapegoat to much of what has gone wrong in the world. In fact, wittingly or otherwise, your characters were shaped by this prejudiced reality, where you subsist between bouts of anger at your mistreatment, and desperate attempts at defending yourself, fending for your family, and standing up for your community, for your culture and for your religion.

Most importantly, you continue to struggle, on a daily basis, to develop a sense of belonging, citizenship in societies where you often find yourself rejected and excluded. They demand your ‘assimilation’, yet push you away whenever you draw nearer. It is seemingly an impossible task, I know.

And, it seems that, no matter what you do, you are yet to make a dent in the unfair misrepresentation of who you are and the noble values for which your religion stands. Their racism seems to be growing, and all the arrows of their hatred persistently point at Islam, despite your passionate attempts to convince them otherwise.

In fact, you hardly understand why Islam is, indeed, part of this discussion in the first place. Islam never invited the US to go to war in the Middle East, to tamper with your civilizations and to torment fellow Muslims in other parts of the globe.

Islam was never consulted when Guantanamo was erected to serve as a gulag outside the norms of human rights and international law.

Islam is hardly a topic of discussion as warring parties, with entirely self-interested political agendas, are fighting over the future of Syria or Iraq or Libya or Yemen or Afghanistan, and so on.

Islam was not the problem when Palestine was overrun by Zionist militias, with the help of the British and, later, the Americans, turning the Holy Land into a battlefield for most of the last century. The repercussions of that act has sealed the region’s fate from relative peace into a repugnant and perpetual war and conflict.

The same logic can be applied to everything else that went awry, and you have often wondered that yourself. Islam did not invent colonialism and imperialism, but inspired Asians, Africans and Arabs to fight this crushing evil. Islam did not usher in the age of mass slavery, although millions of American and European slaves were, themselves, Muslim.

You try to tell them all of this, and you insist that the likes of vicious groups like ISIS are not a product of Islam but a by-product of violence, greed and foreign interventions. But they do not listen, countering with selective verses from your Holy Book that were meant for specific historical contexts and circumstances. You even share such verses from the Quran with all of your social media followers: “…if any one killed a person, it would be as if he killed the whole of mankind; and if any one saved a life, it would be as if he saved the life of the whole of mankind…” (Chapter 5; Verse 32), hoping to elicit some understanding of the sanctity of human life according to your religion, but a fundamental change in attitude is yet to come.

So you despair, at least some of you do. Some of those who live in western countries cease to share with others the fact that they are Muslim, avoiding any discussion that may result in their being ostracized from increasingly intolerant societies. Some of those who live in Muslim majority countries, sadly, counter hate with hate of their own. Either way, they teeter between hate and self-hate, fear and self-pity, imposed apathy, rage and self-loathing. With time, a sense of belonging has been impossible to achieve and, like me when I was younger, perhaps you wonder what it would have been like if you lived in some other time, in some other place.

But, amid all of this, it is vital that we remember that the burdens of life can offer the best lessons in personal and collective growth.

You must understand that there is yet to exist a group of people that was spared the collective trials of history: that did not suffer persecution, racism, seemingly perpetual war, ethnic cleansing and all the evils that Muslims are contending with right now, from Syria to Palestine to Donald Trump’s America. This does not make it ‘okay’ but it is an important reminder that your hardship is not unique among nations. It just so happens that this could be the time for you to learn some of life’s most valuable lessons.

To surmount this hardship, you must first be decidedly clear on who you are; you must take pride in your values; in your identity; you must never cease to fight hate with love, to reach out, to educate, to belong. Because if you don’t, then racism wins, and you lose this unparalleled opportunity at individual and collective growth.

Sometimes I pity those who are born into privilege: although they have access to money and material opportunities, they can rarely appreciate the kind of experiences that only want and suffering can offer. Nothing even comes close to wisdom born out of pain.

And if you ever weaken, try to remember: God “does not burden a soul beyond that it can bear.” (Chapter 2; Verse 286).

Modi’s Visit To Moscow: Restoring Mutual Trust And Confidence – Analysis

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By Achal Kumar Malhotra*

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Moscow December 23-24 to attend the 16th annual summit meeting with President Vladimir Putin. This was his first bilateral state visit to the Russian capital, but his fourth interaction with him. When compared to Putin’s schedule in New Delhi for the 15th summit last year, Modi’s schedule in Russia was rather plate-full.

Relations between India and Russia have evolved over a period of seven decades to reach the current levels of “special and privileged strategic partnership’’. For four decades (1950-90), India, despite its strong credentials as a leading non-aligned country, was viewed as an ally of erstwhile USSR. India’s dependence on Soviet Union for political, diplomatic and moral support as well as in defence, nuclear energy and heavy industry was near total.

The disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to a pause in the growth of relations between the two countries, with this trend lasting for almost a decade. The trend was reversed by President Vladimir Putin whose landmark visit to India in 2000 led to elevation of relations to ‘strategic partnership’. It also institutionalized the annual bilateral Summit level meetings between the leaders of the two countries-a practice followed uninterruptedly since then.

Modi’s visit to Moscow assumed significance as it came in the backdrop of growing perceptions that following the change of Government in New Delhi in May 2014, India began to gradually drift away from its “time-tested friend” Russia in its bid to be closer to the West (led by the US). Russia thought it had valid reasons to feel insecure or at least be unsure about its long-standing strong ties with India.

Russia was in particular upset over India’s decision to diversify its sources of defence imports- an area where initially the Soviet Union and later Russia had monopolized for decades, but where it is now losing out to other international players such as USA, Israel, and France etc.

In the wake of falling oil prices and sanctions from the West, Russia desperately needs to prop up its defence exports to sustain its military-industrial complex-an important stronghold of its economy. It can therefore ill-afford to lose a reliable buyer such as India. From India’s perspective, Russia’s accelerated engagement with China, in particular equipping it with modern air defence system S-400, and its decision to lift self-imposed arms sale embargo on Pakistan were becoming a source of concern, even if those moves were to be treated as part of Russia’s response to shifting geo-political alignments in Asia and pressure of western sanctions.

One of the unstated priorities for PM Modi during the visit was therefore to set the record straight and restore mutual trust and confidence. Besides carrying a long wish list for defence purchases, he publically assured his counterpart: ‘I have always had great respect and appreciation of our strategic partnership. It has been a source of strength and success for India in defence development and diplomacy’.

He went on to describe President Putin as the ‘architect of the India-Russia strategic partnership’, adding that “I see Russia as a significant partner in India’s economic transformation and in shaping a balanced, stable, inclusive and multi-polar world”. In the given context, these words were more than rhetoric and carried substance and message, reflected eventually, in their Joint Statement, which read: the two sides “reaffirmed the unique character of Russia-India relations based on time-tested and deep mutual trust and friendship between the two nations”.

In all, sixteen bilateral agreements MoUs, covering a wide range of areas, were signed during the visit. Significantly, the agreements in defence and nuclear energy sectors have been fine-tuned to fit into PM Modi’s “Make in India” concept. The agreement on cooperation in Helicopter Engineering for instance envisages the manufacturing of Kamov 226 Helicopters in India. Similarly it was agreed to incorporate Indian manufacturing content in twelve Russian Nuclear Reactors to be built in India over a period of time. Intriguingly, despite widespread belief, there was no announcement made during the visit on India’s intention to purchase from Russia S-400 Triumf air defence system, which would make India the only country in Asia, other than China, to possess this modern equipment. No reference was made also to India’s reported intentions to procure nuclear submarines and stealth frigates except that PM Modi said “we have made progress on a number of other defence proposals”.

The important political takeaways from the visit include: Russia’s “strong support for India’s candidature for a permanent seat in reformed UN Security Council”; Russia’s endorsement of India’s interest in full membership for nuclear export control regimes (Nuclear Suppliers Group and WASSENAAR Arrangement) as well as Russia’s commitment to work closely with India towards India’s membership of APEC; call for “early elimination, once and for all of ‘safe havens’ of terrorists, (albeit without naming Pakistan)”; need to fight terrorism “without selectivity and double standards” (endorsement of India’s views on so-called good terrorism and bad terrorism). In an apparent deference to China’s sensitivities and presumably on Russia’s insistence there was no reference made to uninterrupted right to navigation etc. in South China Sea.

India-Russia Business Forum held during the visit acquired importance in the context of the commitment of the two countries to strengthen the economic pillar of their strategic relations and to triple the volume of trade by 2025 which currently is less than $10bn. It was attended by the CEOs of leading business groups from India and Russia and addressed by PM Modi and President Putin, reflecting the seriousness on both sides. However, both India and Russia will need to work hard to create appropriate enabling environment to push their economic relations beyond defence, energy and heavy industry.

On the whole, PM Modi’s visit can be said to have addressed the concerns of Russia and helped restore mutual trust and confidence, and understand each others’ compulsions while operating in an increasingly multi-polar world. It also provided an opportunity to pronounce the convergence of views on several issues of regional and international dimensions. The visit was also one more step forward in the direction of expansion and diversification of trade and economic links. It could be business as usual from now onwards.

*Achal Kumar Malhotra is a former Indian Ambassador and a leading expert on Russia. He can be reached at: editor@spsindia.in

Americans Living In A Fantasy World – OpEd

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Americans are famously ignorant about global geography. While many are apologetic about this deficit, it often gets waved off as a cultural gap that doesn’t really need filling — a bit like learning the metric system: useful in theory but something that most people are quite content to live without.

One of the latest widely cited examples speaks to the fact when it comes to acquiring knowledge about the world, the tutor that too many Americans rely on is Hollywood.

An editorial in Abu Dhabi’s The National (the English-language newspaper from the Gulf that mustn’t be called Persian) says:

A week of international ridicule over a poll that found about 30 per cent of Republican voters supported military aggression against the fictional Arab city of Agrabah has not sent the story away on a magic carpet. In a new poll conducted by WPA research, 44 per cent of Democratic voters questioned would support the United States taking in refugees from Agrabah, a made-up location from Disney’s Aladdin. Roughly 28 per cent said they were indifferent.

The latest poll sheds additional light on the mainstream American sentiment about the Middle East. It is clear that ignorance about the geography and people of the region extends across party lines.

It doesn’t just cut across party lines; it also unites some experts with those who naively view them as being reliably informed.

For instance, in an article on Clausewitz and ISIS that I posted here recently, David Johnson, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, was quoted, saying:

If you go to Istanbul and look south the Caliphate is right there. You can point to it. It’s a state that views us as an enemy. What’s the mystery?

Before joining RAND, Johnson had a 24-year U.S. Army career “in a variety of command and staff assignments in the United States, Korea, and Europe,” so maybe he never went to Istanbul. If he had, he should have known that if you look south you will see the Sea of Marmara and beyond that, the southern half of the Marmara region of Turkey.

The territory under ISIS’s control is nowhere near in sight, being hundreds of miles off to the east-southeast, beyond Turkey’s borders in Syria and Iraq.

Call this an instance of matter-of-fact ignorance — which might be seen as an American specialty.

Ignorance is not a crime. Indeed, nothing is more important than recognizing the limits of ones knowledge if that knowledge is to be advanced. The worst mistake, however, is to imagine one knows (or be willing to pretend one knows) what one does not.

That is what leads to ill-conceived pronouncements on the fate of Agrabah and its imaginary residents.

Just imagine how much less raucous the internet would be (or how many more don’t knows pollsters would count) if everyone applied a bit more caution and discipline in differentiating between the known and the unknown, distinguishing between fact and opinion, and in acknowledging that what they may have chosen to repeat is merely hearsay.

Kremlin Aide Visits Sokhumi, Discusses Abkhaz Turkish Ties

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(Civil.Ge) — Russian President’s aide Vladislav Surkov, who met leaders of breakaway Abkhazia in Sokhumi on December 29, said that he discussed, among other issues, Abkhazia’s relations with Turkey and the need to coordinate policies in this regard.

The Abkhaz leadership and opposition parties condemned downing of a Russian fighter jet by Turkey near Turkey-Syria border in November. Abkhaz commentators have been expressing fears over negative consequences of Turkey-Russia tensions on Abkhazia and its economy.

Trade with Turkey accounts for 18-20% of breakaway region’s foreign trade turnover; Turkey is destination of about 10% of Abkhaz exports, according to Russian and Abkhaz sources. The breakaway region imports mostly building materials, fuel, food and textile from Turkey; it exports coal, fish and scrap metal.

Turkish fishing vessels have been actively involved in the fishery along the Abkhaz Black Sea coast. But in mid-December Russia’s federal fishing agency, Rosrybolovstvo, said that the Russian fishing vessels would launch fishery in the Abkhaz waters and would possibly also “replace” Turkish fishing vessels.

Such economic activities in Abkhazia violate Georgia’s legislation, including the law on occupied territories. At least four Turkish vessels were detained by the Georgian coast guard in 2013 for unauthorized entry to breakaway Abkhazia; no such cases were reported since then.

“We touched upon this issue of relations with Turkey,” said Surkov, who is Russian President’s aide in charge of overseeing Moscow’s relations with breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

“Actually, Abkhazia has no formal relations with Turkey. As you know Turkey does not recognize Abkhazia, but at the same time it [Turkey] tries to tackle certain economic and, I think, some political issues,” Surkov told journalists in Sokhumi.

“Certain circles in Turkey include Abkhazia in [Turkish] possible sphere of influence,” he added.

“There are delicate, very important, and centuries old relations with [Abkhaz] diaspora [in Turkey] and it should not in any way be forgotten.”

“Moreover, there is no goal whatsoever to worsen economic situation of Abkhazia through inapt and rigid actions of the Abkhaz authorities or through our incorrectly coordinated actions. That’s why we will weigh all the aspects. Russia too is not introducing sanctions indiscriminately against Turkey; Russia is doing it selectively and not on all the directions,” Surkov said.

He said that Turkish construction companies should not be hired for implementing infrastructure projects carried out in Abkhazia with Russian aid funds.

“I can tell you that Turkish contractors will hardly be able to build [in Abkhazia] with Russian money – that’s probably quite obvious,” he said.

“But all the rest – fishing, certain access to natural resources etc, we will consider them separately… and then the Abkhaz government will probably inform you how we would coordinate our policies in this regard,” Surkov added.

Abkhaz leader, Raul Khajimba, said that “nothing will spoil” overall atmosphere between Abkhazia and Russia.

“Turkey and Russia – problem that exist now is [a matter] of relations between the two countries. But we also have relevant documents, which regulate these issues. The treaty [on alliance and strategic partnership between Russia and Abkhazia] imposes certain obligations on us,” Khajimba said, referring to 2014 treaty, which, among others, envisages carrying out “coordinated” foreign policy.

“Our economy will not be harmed,” Khajimba added.

Surkov said that on top of increased salaries for employees of state agencies and increased age pensions, Russia also plans to allocate 4.7 billion rubles (about USD 64 mln as of December 30) to fund “investment program” in Abkhazia for 2016.


What Are Risks Of Giving Birth Inside And Outside A Hospital?

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The out-of-hospital birth setting in Oregon (US) was associated with a higher risk of perinatal death, while the in-hospital birth setting was associated with a higher risk for cesarean delivery and other obstetric interventions (e.g., induction or augmentation of labor), according a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine by researchers at Oregon Health & Science University.

“This study continues the national dialogue about the care, setting and health care systems that can provide more women with a safe, healthy birth that meets their birthing preferences,” said Jonathan M. Snowden, Ph.D., an epidemiologist and assistant professor in the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology in the OHSU School of Medicine and lead author of the study. “Our findings show that Oregon women are very likely to have a safe delivery in any setting. While those who deliver at home or in birth centers are much more likely to have a normal, vaginal delivery, there is also a small but statistically significant increase in risk for adverse baby outcomes.”

The study, which looked at outcomes for mothers and babies based on birth setting, was conducted using data collected from Oregon birth certificates in 2012 and 2013 on what a mother’s intended birth setting was when she went into labor. The study compared two groups of ‘low-risk’ pregnancies, meaning the babies were head down, close to their due date, and not twins or triplets. One group was planning hospital birth, the other out-of-hospital birth.

“While the overall risk for perinatal death was low in all settings, the stakes can be high,” said Aaron B. Caughey, M.D., Ph.D., professor and chair in the OHSU Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, associate dean for Women’s Health Research and Policy in the OHSU School of Medicine, and paper co-author. “As health care providers, we need to make sure women know what the trade-offs are so they can make an informed choice that reflects their birth preferences.”

The key findings were:

  • While rare in both groups (less than 0.5% in all settings), there was a statistically significant higher risk of perinatal death in planned out-of-hospital births compared to planned hospital births.
  • Neonatal seizures were also rare in all settings (less than 0.5%), and were significantly higher in planned out-of-hospital births compared to planned hospital births.
  • The cesarean section rate was significantly lower in planned out-of-hospital births compared to planned hospital birth (24.7% in the hospital, 5.3% out of hospital).
  • Risk of C-section was 24.7%, making the absolute difference between birth settings large (a difference of 20%). However, risk of perinatal death was very low in all settings, so the absolute extra risk associated with planned out-of-hospital birth was also less than 0.5%.
  • Mothers who planned out-of-hospital birth had a significantly increased risk for blood transfusion, likely related to postpartum hemorrhage.
  • Planned out-of-hospital birth was associated with decreased use of obstetric interventions across the board (e.g., augmentation of labor, induction of labor or C-section).
  • The group planning hospital birth had significantly more mothers with high blood pressure, diabetes or a prior C-section, and overall, they were a higher-risk group.

This is the first birth certificate data set in the country in which women were asked about intended place of birth, regardless of where they delivered. Because the authors knew which women planned a hospital or out-of-hospital birth, they were able then to properly categorize outcomes by the intended place of birth. In the past, a woman may have started labor at home and intended to deliver at home, and then needed to be transferred to the hospital due to complications and delivered in the hospital. If outcomes were not good, the outcome was categorized as a hospital outcome.

This paper also addresses the overuse of C-sections in U.S. hospitals, a topic on which Dr. Caughey and the research team are nationally known experts.

“There is now consensus in the medical and midwifery communities that the U.S. C-section rate is too high, and the desire to avoid a C-section may shape women’s choices when seeking out-of-hospital birth,” said Ellen Tilden, Ph.D., C.N.M., assistant professor at OHSU School of Nursing and study co-author. “It’s really important that we strive to make birth safer in any setting, both through decreasing fetal and neonatal morbidity and mortality out of the hospital but also through supporting safe vaginal birth in hospitals.”

Out-of-hospital births in Oregon account for about 4% of total births (2.4% home birth, 1.6% birth center), the highest rate of any state, so about 95% of births take place in the hospital. About 57% of out-of-hospital births in Oregon are attended by licensed direct entry midwives, 20% by certified nurse-midwives, 13% by naturopathic doctors, and 7.7% by unlicensed midwives. These two charts show which providers perform births in which setting, and define the types of midwives and their trainings/certifications.

Nationally there has been a significant increase in the rate of home births. Between 2004 and 2008, the home birth rate increased by 20%, and by another 24% between 2008 and 2012, so about 1.4% of U.S. women had a home birth in 2012.

The authors agree that working to integrate the maternal health care system would be good first steps. Specifically, they recommend focusing on:

  • Looking to countries with better integrated maternity care systems, like the Netherlands, where midwives are the lead care providers for healthy women
  • Developing formal guidelines for which women are appropriate candidates for out-of-hospital birth
  • Improving communication and collaboration between in- and out-of-hospital providers
  • Creating an agreed upon transfer system where patients can easily be transferred to a hospital when needed

“The history and political tenor of the debate between out-of-hospital and in-hospital birth in our state and nationally has polarized the issue at a time when we sorely need a productive exchange,” says Snowden. “It is important to recognize that we all — families, birth attendants, and policymakers — share the common goal of helping birth occur with the best possible outcomes for all.”

Saudi Arabia Reiterates Support For Abbas

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Saudi Arabia’s Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman has been awarded Palestine’s highest award, the Medal of Honor, for his services to the Palestinian people.

Palestine President Mahmoud Abbas conferred the award on the king at a meeting held at Al-Yamamah palace in Riyadh on Wednesday, the Saudi Press Agency reported.

This was followed by talks between the two on developments in the occupied Palestinian territories.

The king reaffirmed the Kingdom’s position of continued support for the Palestinian cause and the establishment of an independent state with Jerusalem as its capital. Abbas thanked the king for his support.

The king hosted a lunch in honor of Abbas and his delegation.

The reception and lunch were attended by a number of princes and senior officials, including Prince Mansour bin Miteb bin Abdulaziz, minister of state, and adviser to the king.

Others included Minister of State and Cabinet Member Musaed bin Mohammed Al-Aiban, Finance Minister Ibrahim Al-Assaf and Culture and Information Minister Adel Al-Toraifi.

Abbas left the country from King Khaled International Airport later in the day, and was seen off by several officials.

Russia, Central Asia Could Be One Of Most Energy-Competitive Areas Based On Renewables

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A fully renewable energy system is achievable and economically viable in Russia and Central Asia in 2030. Researchers from Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) modelled a renewable energy system for Russia and Central Asia. Results show that renewable energy is the cheapest option for the continent and can make Russia a very energy competitive region in the future.

According to the research, a 100 percent renewable energy system for Russia and Central Asia would be roughly 50 percent lower in cost than a system based on latest European nuclear technology or carbon capture and storage. Renewable energy covers electricity and industrial natural gas demand, not, for example, transport or heating.

“We think that this is the first ever 100% renewable energy system modelling for Russia and Central Asia. It demonstrates that Russia can become one of the most energy-competitive regions in the world”, emphasises professor Christian Breyer, co-author of the study.

Moving to a renewable energy system is possible due to the abundance of various types of renewable energy resources in the area. This then enables the building of a Super Grid, which connects different energy resources of the researched area.

Such a renewable energy system represents a drastic change compared to the current situation. The modelled energy system is based on wind, hydropower, solar, biomass and some geothermal energy. Wind amounts to about 60 percent of the production whilst solar, biomass and hydropower are distributed evenly. The total installed capacity of renewable energy in the system is about 550 gigawatts. Slightly more than half of this is wind energy and 20 percent is solar. The rest is composed of hydro and biomass supported with power-to-gas, pumped hydro storage and batteries. In the present situation, the total capacity is 388 gigawatts of which wind and solar only accounts for 1.5 gigawatts. The current system also has neither power-to-gas capacity nor batteries.

The geographical area of the research covers much of the northern hemisphere. Many of the countries in the area are currently reliant on the production and use of fossil fuels and nuclear power. In addition to Russia, the researched area includes Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan as well as Caucasus and Pamir regions including Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

One of the key insights of the research is that energy sectors’ integration lowers the cost of electricity by 20 percent for Russia and Central Asia. When moving to a renewable energy system, for example, natural gas is replaced with power-to-gas, i.e. converting electricity into gases, such as hydrogen and synthetic natural gas. This increases the overall need for renewable energy. The more renewable capacity is built the more it can be used for different sectors: heating, transportation and industry. This flexibility of the system decreases the need for storages and lowers the cost of energy.

Tens Of Millions Of Trees In Danger From California Drought

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California’s forests are home to the planet’s oldest, tallest and most-massive trees. New research from Carnegie’s Greg Asner and his team reveals that up to 58 million large trees in California experienced severe canopy water loss between 2011 and today due to the state’s historic drought. Their results are published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

In addition to the persistently low rainfall, high temperatures and outbreaks of the destructive bark beetle increased forest mortality risk. But gaining a large-scale understanding a forest’s responses to the drought, as well as to ongoing changes in climate, required more than just a picture of trees that have already died.

A higher-tech approach was necessary; so Asner and his team used the laser-guided imaging spectroscopy tools mounted on the Carnegie Airborne Observatory (CAO) to measure the full impact of the drought on California’s forests for the first time. They combined the CAO data with more-traditional satellite data going back to 2011.

Their new approach revealed a progressive loss of water in California’s forest canopies over the four-year span. Mapping changes in canopy water content tells scientists when trees are under drought stress and greatly aids in predicting which trees are at greatest death and fire risk.

“California relies on its forests for water provisioning and carbon storage, as well as timber products, tourism, and recreation, so they are tremendously important ecologically, economically, and culturally,” Asner explained. “The drought put the forests in tremendous peril, a situation that may cause long-term changes in ecosystems that could impact animal habitats and biodiversity.”

The team’s advanced tools showed that about 41,000 square miles (10.6 million hectares) of forest containing up to 888 million large trees experienced measurable losses of canopy water between 2011 and 2015. Of this group, up to 58 million large trees reached water loss thresholds that the scientists deemed extremely threatening to long-term forest health. Given the severity of the situation, even with increased precipitation due to El Nino, if drought conditions reoccur in the near future, the team predicts that there would be substantial changes to already significantly weakened forest structures and systems.

“The Carnegie Airborne Observatory’s research provides invaluable insight into the severity of drought impacts in California’s iconic forests. It will be important to bring their cutting-edge data and expertise to bear as the state seeks to address the effects of this epidemic of dying trees and aid in the recovery of our forests,” said Ashley Conrad-Saydah, deputy secretary for climate policy at the California Environmental Protection Agency.

Since day one of CAO flight operations, Asner has been engaged with forest managers and officials from the California EPA and Department of Forestry and Fire Protection to inform decision-makers on the severity of forest water losses from the drought and beetle outbreaks. The team’s results also helped motivate the California governor’s recent proclamation of a state of emergency for dead and dying trees across the state. The latest CAO maps of forest vulnerability were recently transmitted to both state and federal partners.

“Our high-resolution mapping approach identifies vulnerable trees and changing landscapes,” Asner added. “Continued airborne and satellite monitoring will enable actions on the ground to mitigate a cascade of negative impacts from forest losses due to drought, as well as aid in monitoring forest recovery if and when the drought subsides.”

What Has Become Of Taliban In Afghanistan? – Analysis

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By Chayanika Saxena*

Taliban has all along been considered a formidable, resilient unified front with an effective chain of command. But, like every other entity that is prone to change, or in this case, decline, the fissures within Taliban and the extraneous challenges that are being mounted against it, have certainly left a deleterious impact on this movement. Where on the one hand its image as an organisation with a tightly-knit command structure is getting challenged, a challenger in the form of ISIS is wresting power and allegiance away from it.

In fact, in a dramatic blaring out of these differences, reports indicating a break-out of violent fight between the Taliban commanders at a gathering in the Pakistani town of Kuchlak and the subsequent speculations suggesting the death of the new Amer-al-Mominen (Leader of the Faithful), Mullah Akhtar Mansour in the aftermath of the quarrel, have demonstrated that all is not well in the paradise.

While a barrage of reports and an audio message (reportedly) from Mullah Mansour quelled apprehensions about Taliban going headless again, but what these developments did manage to spell out is that maybe life has begun taking a full circle for Taliban. In these circumstances, it would be poignant to ask if we will once again see a united Taliban on the scene. From the looks of it, this appears to be a distant possibility, but a possibility nevertheless. Given the present scenario however, it would be wiser to place our bets on the following assessment: Taliban is not the same as before, and perhaps, would never be.

Still a Proxy

Situated in the safe spaces provided by the notoriously dangerous and highly porous Durand Line, it no longer comes as surprise to know that the deep-state in Pakistan is puppeteering the Taliban. It is certainly no longer a revelation, quite like it never was; in fact, its repeated mention has robbed it off any effect it may have had in the past. However, what it does drive home again and again is the point that despite holding much significance in Afghanistan’s peace process, Taliban continues to be a beneficiary of an alien regime. Much of its ideological and monetary support is routed through the gullies of Rawalpindi, with most of its safe havens found across the Durand Line – in Pakistan, and not within the country it seeks to control.

Although it has been making attempts to shift its base from Quetta to the province of Helmand in Afghanistan, the fact that Taliban had begun and continues to operate from the precincts of another nation makes it susceptible to expulsion. Here it becomes crucial to underline that Taliban was a conscious creation of comfort for those who had sought to achieve a degree of ‘strategic depth’ through it, placing the movement much at the mercy of foreign powers.

With its base of supporters shrinking in Afghanistan, Taliban is experiencing domestic entropy which can further get aggravated if its benefactors decide to pull their hands. After all, a creation of convenience is but that- a convenience which when no longer serving any purpose will get the axe.

Currently reports are rife about the possibility of a new round of Peace Talks happening in early 2016, with Pakistan promising to ‘deliver’ Taliban to the table of consultations. The fact that Pakistan can still and does indeed produce and withdraw Taliban from the discussions as and when it likes goes on to speak tomes about who controls the actual strings of the movement.

Internal Dissent

Rarely has Taliban’s infighting been ever made public like it is being made now. Ever since the death of its leader, Mullah Omar was announced and confirmed, Taliban has been witnessing an internal turmoil with many rivaling factions emerging from within a movement that was for long a united front.

Coming after the first round of talks in the Afghan peace process, the announcement of Mullah Omar’s death is understood to have sabotaged what remained of the already precarious chances of initiating reconciliation within Afghanistan. But apart from derailing the subsequent rounds of the peace process (until now); the announcement also laid bare a race for succession within Taliban. In fact, according to the Afghan Analyst Network, a segment of dissenters took their grievances to a private news network in Kabul, doing something that had no parallels in the past.

Throwing Taliban into a state of disarray, what aggravated the ills for the movement was the anointment of Mullah Akhtar Mansour as the new leader much to the resentment of many within. To many within Taliban, the reins of the movement were to be rightly transferred into the hands of the ‘real’ heir of Mullah Omar- his son, Mullah Mohammad Yaqoub, instead of Mullah Mansour. However, this dispute soon got resolved in favor of Mansour who could manage to sway the allegiance of Yaqoub and Mullah Omar’s brother, Mullah Abdul Manan Akhund, in his favor.

But, even after this conciliation, things did not augur well for the movement. Dissenting factions with men and material have emerged in many provinces, such as the Taliban stronghold-Zabul, challenging the supremacy of the new leader. Notwithstanding their actual physical and economic strength which is relatively insignificant when compared to that of Mullah Mansour’s coterie, it is nevertheless critical to note that most of the dissidents were at the helm of affairs in Taliban since its coming into existence.

For instance, leading an armed rebellion against the Taliban of Mansour is Mullah Mohammad Rasul, who has also fashioned his faction as the ‘true Taliban’, known in the formal circles as the ‘Higher Council of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’. ‘Higher’ is the word to note here for it hints at the claim that its leadership is the most ‘Fidel’ version of the Islamic Emirate of the deceased Mullah Omar.

On the other side of the spectrum is verbiage of opposition that is yet to translate into physical challenges for Mansour’s lot. Steered by the disgruntled members from the ‘Rehbari Shura’ (Leadership Consultative Council), this plank of opposition is led by Taliban commanders including Mullah Abdul Razaq (interior minister in Taliban’s era), Mullah Hassan Rahmani (governor of Kandahar when Taliban ruled) and Mullah Abdul Jalil (the deputy foreign minister of Taliban) and Abdul Rahman Zahed (former governor of the Central Bank under the Taliban).

ISIS Challenge to its bastion

The porosity of its borders and the continuing volatility in Afghanistan’s political setup has implied that the expanding ISIS activities can find a fertile ground for itself in this country, and so it has. If reports are to be believed, Afghanistan’s eastern province of Nangarhar has already become the den of the ISIS, with Jalalabad being declared as the operational capital of the ISIS’ envisioned province of Khorasan. Khorasan, which is an ancient name for territories spanning over Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, is expected to be one of the provinces of the IS Caliphate should it succeed in expanding itself into South Asia.

With its massive finances, superior technology and greater external support, the ISIS has not only been giving the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) a great deal of trouble, but it has eaten into the constituencies of Taliban, both ideologically and territorially. Apparently, most of the members of the Afghan based ISIS are not fighters from Iraq and Syria, but are disaffected Talibs. Interestingly, the ‘official’ media outlet of Taliban, Voice of Jihad is increasingly finding competition from the IS’ run Voice of Caliphate, which has begun using radio waves for propaganda by delivering sermons, issuing fatwas and the like.

Where is the Taliban headed?

At present, Taliban is consolidating its hold on Helmand that is critical for it for a variety of reasons, including the province’s vast opium producing fields. At the same time, reports are flooded with information on the expanding ISIS’ footprints in Afghanistan into those territories that used to be the bastions of Taliban. The internal quarrels within the movement too surface every now and then. And now, with the peace-talks once again being under process, the status of Taliban within Afghanistan seems to be all but confounded.

With more than one Taliban on the scene now; the Quetta Shura and the Qatar political offices often being at fork’s ends; the ISIS drawing the disgruntled Talibs towards it, and Pakistan promising to deliver Taliban as the peace talks begin again, have made Afghanistan look like an ensemble of unyielding questions, adding to its already muddled-up affairs.

There is essentially a lack of clarity as to where Taliban is headed from here. Where on the one hand it is running-down posts one after another, on the other, it is being consistently challenged and tamed alike. Yet while the strength or weakness of Taliban will be for the time to tell, one thing that is being amply sounded is that Afghans not disposed in favor of this movement. They are repelling the traces of this movement and the like-minded corollaries in whatever form they can. By speaking-out and acting against such parochialism at many levels (from personal resistance to taking out the largest protest march in Kabul), the people of Afghanistan are churning a cultural revolution that should end in a good riddance!

*Chayanika Saxena is a Research Associate at the Society for Policy Studies, New Delhi. She can be reached at:chayanika.saxena@spsindia.in

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