“To move forward as a developed nation in the world, the all Sri Lankans should join hands in peace and brotherhood,” said Sri Lanka President Maithripala Sirisena.

“Whatever race and religion we belong to, we should face the world as one Sri Lankan nation,” Sirisena added.

Sirisena made these remarks at the ceremony to lay foundation stone to the building complex to be erected in the premises of Daruslam Muslim Maha Vidyalaya, Maligawatta on Monday.

Sirisena further stated that the policy of the new government is to develop the schools in villages, similar to the schools in towns.

Sirisena further said that the aim of this government is to provide equal education opportunities for all the children in the country and to build a society where everyone can live in harmony.

The 100th anniversary of the Darussalam Maha Viddiyalaya in Maligawatta celebrated today. In parallel to this occasion the President presented gold awards to the students who showed best performance and to the teachers for their immense contribution for the development of the school.

Minister of Education- Akila Viraj Kariyawasam, Minister Faizer Mustapha, State Minister, A.H.M Fauzie, Mayor of Colombo, A.J.M. Muzammil, Local government ministers, the Principal, Staff, Parents and others participated in the event.

Not a day passes that I don’t get a call from the media asking me to compare Bernie Sanders’s and Hillary Clinton’s tax plans, or bank plans, or health-care plans.

I don’t mind. I’ve been teaching public policy for much of the last thirty-five years. I’m a policy wonk.

But detailed policy proposals are as relevant to the election of 2016 as is that gaseous planet beyond Pluto. They don’t have a chance of making it, as things are now.

The other day Bill Clinton attacked Bernie Sanders’s proposal for a single-payer health plan as unfeasible and a “recipe for gridlock.”

Yet these days, nothing of any significance is feasible and every bold idea is a recipe for gridlock.

This election is about changing the parameters of what’s feasible and ending the choke hold of big money on our political system.

I’ve known Hillary Clinton since she was 19 years old, and have nothing but respect for her. In my view, she’s the most qualified candidate for president of the political system we now have.

But Bernie Sanders is the most qualified candidate to create the political system we should have, because he’s leading a political movement for change.

The upcoming election isn’t about detailed policy proposals. It’s about power – whether those who have it will keep it, or whether average Americans will get some as well.

A study published in the fall of 2014 by Princeton professor Martin Gilens and Northwestern’s Benjamin Page reveals the scale of the challenge.

Gilens and Page analyzed 1,799 policy issues in detail, determining the relative influence on them of economic elites, business groups, mass-based interest groups, and average citizens.

Their conclusion: “The preferences of the average American appear to have only a minuscule, near-zero, statistically nonsignificant impact upon public policy.”

Instead, lawmakers respond to the moneyed interests – those with the most lobbying prowess and deepest pockets to bankroll campaigns.

It’s sobering that Gilens and Page’s data come from the period 1981 to 2002, before the Supreme Court opened the floodgates to big money in its “Citizens United” and “McCutcheon” decisions. Their study also predated the advent of super PACs and “dark money,” and even the Wall Street bailout.

If average Americans had a “near-zero” impact on public policy then, their impact is now zero.

Which explains a paradox I found a few months ago when I was on book tour in the nation’s heartland: I kept bumping into people who told me they were trying to make up their minds in the upcoming election between Sanders and Trump.

At first I was dumbfounded. The two are at opposite ends of the political divide.

But as I talked with these people, I kept hearing the same refrains. They wanted to end “crony capitalism.” They detested “corporate welfare,” such as the Wall Street bailout.

They wanted to prevent the big banks from extorting us ever again. Close tax loopholes for hedge-fund partners. Stop the drug companies and health insurers from ripping off American consumers. End trade treaties that sell out American workers. Get big money out of politics.

Somewhere in all this I came to see the volcanic core of what’s fueling this election.

If you’re one of the tens of millions of Americans who are working harder than ever but getting nowhere, and who understand that the political-economic system is rigged against you and in favor of the rich and powerful, what are you going to do?

Either you’re going to be attracted to an authoritarian son-of-a-bitch who promises to make America great again by keeping out people different from you and creating “great” jobs in America, who sounds like he won’t let anything or anybody stand in his way, and who’s so rich he can’t be bought off.

Or you’ll go for a political activist who tells it like it is, who has lived by his convictions for fifty years, who won’t take a dime of money from big corporations or Wall Street or the very rich, and who is leading a grass-roots “political revolution” to regain control over our democracy and economy.

In other words, either a dictator who promises to bring power back to the people, or a movement leader who asks us to join together to bring power back to the people.

You don’t care about the details of proposed policies and programs.

You just want a system that works for you.

Senator Bernie Sanders is getting a lot of heat from political establishment types for proposals they view as outlandish. The top of the list is breaking up the big banks and universal Medicare. The complaint is that these proposals are so far off the political agenda, Sanders is wasting everyone’s time by raising them

It is understandable that the interest groups who profit from the current situation do not want to see it altered. But that doesn’t mean we are condemned to have incredibly wasteful financial and health care systems forever.

Starting with finance, we actually have already seen some breakups of large financial institutions in the wake of the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill. GE is seeking to offload its financial services division. Citigroup has also downsized by selling off some divisions. The Financial Stability Oversight Council established by Dodd-Frank currently has the authority to breakup too big to fail banks.

To continue down this direction will require political will, which presumably a President Sanders would provide. But the idea of downsizing systemically important banks and other financial institutions is already in law; we just need a stronger hand in pushing forward.

There is a similar story with the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and universal Medicare. The ACA was a huge step forward in extending coverage and controlling costs, however we still have far to go before we reach universal coverage and bring our costs in line with other countries.

While it is unrealistic to think that we could switch from our current system to some sort of universal Medicare system overnight, it is not implausible that we could take large steps in that direction. For example, we could allow people over the age of 55 to buy into the Medicare system.

By continually raising the issue of universal Medicare, and pointing out the extent to which the public is getting ripped off by the health care industry, Sanders is building the sort off public pressure that is needed to allow reform to move forward. This is essential in a context where the industry groups all have their lobbyists pushing for more money, while the public has no lobbyist for lower costs and increased access. The sort of public anger aroused by Sanders is hardly a diversion, it will be essential for further progress on health care reform.

This article originally appeared in USA Today and reprinted with permission.

We all know proactive, constructive and dynamic professionals as well as those who are passive, ineffectual and chronic complainers. What determines whether you yourself fit in the former or latter group?

While external factors can have an impact on our motivation levels at work, the attitude we bring each day is self-determined. Attitude explains how someone who lost multiple elections might become president of the United States or someone fired from his own company might then become a business icon.

A paper by IESE lecturer and consultant, Pablo Maella, recommends 10 behaviors and attitudes to increase both your personal welfare and professional effectiveness.

1. Accept reality and others as they are. Self-motivation begins with having realistic and appropriate expectations of work and of those around you. Instead of demanding that circumstances conform to your wishes, accept them as they are and, from that point, find room for improvement.

2. Know yourself and accept that you have strengths and weaknesses. Sometimes we seem to think that making a mistake is intolerable in a good professional, that it leads to disaster. But if we don’t come to terms with our own fallibility, we end up piling on frustration and missing out on opportunities for improvement. Being aware of your own strengths and weaknesses allows you to be more effective and may save you from a downward spiral of low self-esteem. Acknowledge your mistakes, but also appreciate your successes.

3. Don’t complain. Imagine you own a fast-food franchise and a bad batch of meat is discovered in another location of the same chain. You’ve done nothing wrong, but your business will be affected. In this situation, a franchise owner could either complain about the stroke of bad luck or be proactive and establish concrete measures to minimize the negative impact of the news. Complaining solves nothing while focusing our attention on that which we can’t control.

4. Appreciate what you have and be grateful. “Psychological hedonism” is a mental mechanism by which we accustom ourselves with astonishing ease to the progress of our work and then no longer appreciate this progress. We must make a pointed effort to pay attention to the positive, to what is working well. When we emphasize what we lack rather than what we have, we can end up discouraged.

5. Bring a positive attitude to your task. A business study showed that positive, optimistic salespeople billed 90 percent more than those saddled with negativity. And that is because the attitude with which we handle a situation or task influences the final result. In other words, if you go to a party thinking it will be boring, you probably won’t have much fun, as your initial attitude will make it more difficult. Now, don’t confuse positivity with naiveté or a lack of realism.

6. Set relevant goals and challenges. According to the goal-setting theory of Edwin Locke, we are motivated when we perceive that our goals can be achieved and will involve considerable effort. Also, we are more motivated by more relevant goals. Therefore, important goals — goals that provide something of value to others — are more inspiring than an intrinsic objective (e.g., professional development) or extrinsic one (e.g., a raise or promotion).

7. Imbue what you do with meaning. Given the same task, one worker may just carry stones while another helps build a building. Going to work each morning to get paid is not the same as going to serve the community and develop personally. It’s about finding important motives for doing what we do and giving our best to the task. A full life is not dependent on our occupation, but our ability make our actions matter.

8. Be proactive. When we take decisive action at work, rather than sit back as spectators, we take on more ownership and feel more motivated.

9. Raise hopes and rely on responsibility. The key to motivation is not so much doing just what we like, but instead pouring the most enthusiasm into what we have to do. And when enthusiasm fades, take responsibility to carry on.

10. Be persistent and persevere. If we give up when faced with obstacles, we head into a negative feedback loop being discouraged, with sapped enthusiasm, making us less likely to achieve our goals. Trying to overcome obstacles is, in itself, a motivating force. Determination and perseverance in tough times are the way to rekindle motivation.

Lacking determination or perseverance, Abraham Lincoln would not have run for the U.S. presidency after his earlier election defeats. And Steve Jobs would not have gotten over his dismissal from Apple in 1985 to return a few years later and turn the company into the ubiquitous success it is today.

By Ravi Joshi*

With the Entry in Force of the Joint Comprehensive Programme of Action (JCPOA) on 16th January 2016, not only all the sanctions imposed on Iran by the UN, US and EU have been revoked but also the process of ‘mainstreaming of Iran’ has commenced. Of course Iran had been economically isolated and penalised by decades – long sanctions imposed by the US, but that did not bankrupt the country nor did it lead to a civil war to overthrow its leaders as fondly hoped by analysts in the US and in Iran’s neighbourhood. What has hurt Iran more than the sanctions is the falling price of crude oil that has now hit $28 to a barrel, its 40 year low.

It must be noted here that President Obama’s determined resolve not to be bullied by the powerful AIPAC and the Republican lobbies within the US, as well as Netanyahu and the Saudi rulers from outside, finally helped achieve a breakthrough to the 36 year old stalemate between the US and Iran. The moderate leadership of President Rouhani who faced similar resistance from the fundamentalist clerics in the Majlis and the more difficult Supreme Leader Ayotallah Ali Khameini, deserves equal credit for the final outcome.

The most important and immediate outcomes of the ending of sanctions would be that, firstly Iran will gain access to the international banking system – its Central Bank will now get a SWIFT Code through which it can receive and send funds from and to banks all over the world. Secondly Iran’s funds, estimated to be in the region of over $100 billion held in several American, European and Asian banks will now be unfrozen. Thirdly, Iran can start selling its oil to the world and transport it in its own ships. The Lloyds of London can no longer refuse insurance of its oil tankers. Iran can also start trading in all commodities and services with the rest of the world in the currency of its choice, instead of receiving its funds in ‘under the radar’ banks in Dubai. It no longer has to smuggle in tons of gold from Turkey as payment for its oil from customers far and wide. China, Japan and India continued to import Iranian oil despite the severest sanctions, albeit on a much smaller scale and had to constantly devise creative modes of payment that included the Turkish route.

Iran will now receive foreign investment for its much needed infrastructure, particularly for its old and aging refineries. There are huge business opportunities, right from building airports, to ports, roads and railway network including track and coach building. One of the first things the Government of Iran has done is to place an order for 100 A-320s from the Airbus Industry. Telecom and Energy sectors will also attract a lot of interest and investment. Automobile industry will see a major boom. Audi is already in talks with the concerned ministry in Tehran to set-up its manufacturing unit.

Its economy and financial sectors need to be rebuilt, manufacturing and service industry have to catch up with the lost time and generate urgent employment as unemployment is at record high levels. German, British and French Foreign Ministers have already visited Tehran, well before the formal lifting of sanctions and have struck major investment and trade deals. For the recession hit Europe, the opening up of a new market as large as Iran with its 80 million population comes as a great boon. The only problem is that Iranian oil is now re- entering the world market when its price has hit an abysmally low mark, compared to the high it enjoyed at $110 per barrel prior to imposition of the harshest sanctions in December 2012. Yet the fact that Iran can now access a hundred billion dollars of its own funds (not loans and credits) makes it still a very solvent business partner. It is remarkable that despite the decades -long sanctions, Iran’s economic position is far better than those countries that the West had adopted to re-build and re-construct, such as Iraq and Afghanistan. And here is a country that the West was determined to destroy, economically and politically.

Now a re-emergent Iran poses a significant challenge to the geo-politics of the region. Iraq and Syria are in the throes of a civil war with significant portions of their territory occupied by a Proto-State calling itself the Islamic State. Syria no –longer exists as it did in 2012, thanks to the mercenaries fighting as proxies for Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Saudi Arabia and a coalition of Gulf Kingdoms are waging a war in Yemen with active support of the US.

Iran is already involved in propping up the embattled and besieged regimes in Iraq and Syria. The recent Russian intervention in Syria on the same side has bolstered its efforts. Iranian para-military force the Al-Quds, led by General Suleiman Osmani has been openly fighting the enemies of the Syrian regime as well as the terrorists of the Islamic State. As of now, it is clear that Iran and the US are in opposing camps, definitely in the war on Yemen, although in the war against the Islamic State, Iran and the US may seem to be aligned on the same side. That, however is an optic illusion, because though the US announced air-strikes on the territory of Islamic State in August 2014, all its attacks had not blunted any of the ferocity of the Islamic State nor had managed to vacate any of its territory.

The recent exit of the ‘Islamic State’ from Ramadi was more due to the efforts of the Iraqi army and the Sunni volunteer force rather than the air-strikes of the US led coalition. And the US-led coalition was truly alarmed when Russia decided to wage its own war against the Islamic State. The Western media was all out questioning the credibility of the Russian campaign and portrayed it as a war in defence of Assad’s regime in Damascus. The fact is that the hapless Syrian and Iraqi people are victims of the atrocities of the proxy mercenaries and of the Islamic State and that only Iran and Russia are doing their utmost to fight them and keep the territorial integrity of the two states seems to be lost on the high-minded Western-led Coalition.

As long as the US continues be a steadfast supporter of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Kingdoms, its relations with Iran are likely to be strained, though President Obama has clearly set the US government on a path to reconsider its proximity to the Gulf Kingdoms who are increasingly becoming less relevant to the US stakes in the region.

*Mr. Ravi Kumar S Joshi, (prefers Ravi Joshi), after doing his Masters in Political Science (Mysore University, 1972-74) and M Phil on Chinese Studies, (School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, 1974-76) joined the Government of India, in January 1978.

This article originally appeared in The Economic Times.

By Michael Lelyveld

Russia’s biggest energy deal with China faces delays as economic pressures mount in both countries, raising risks for the plan to link Siberian gas fields with China’s industrial northeast.

On Dec. 29, Russia’s monopoly Gazprom said it had cancelled a tender for a major portion of its mammoth Power of Siberia pipeline project after regulators objected to anti-competitive terms.

Gazprom’s record tender for an 822-kilometer (510-mile) section of the pipeline was set to award 156 billion rubles (12.8 billion yuan) to “a single contractor for the entire set of works required for gas transportation” in order to “optimize costs,” Interfax reported.

But on Dec. 7, Russia’s Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) cited faulty documentation and “bidding criteria that were not measurable,” the news agency said.

The regulatory roadblock came one week after Gazprom awarded 197.7 billion rubles (16.3 billion yuan) in pipeline contracts without competition to a construction firm owned by Arkady Rotenberg, a friend of President Vladimir Putin and a target of Western sanctions over Russia’s conflict with Ukraine.

It was unclear whether the FAS action was meant solely to head off higher costs from limited competitive bidding. But cost is one of several problems for the gas deal that was valued at U.S. $400 billion (2.6 trillion yuan) when it was signed with China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) in 2014 after a decade of talks.

Technical challenges

Murky contracting, bureaucracy and technical challenges have all hindered progress on the plan to meet China’s demand for cleaner-burning fuel, according to a year-end Interfax report.

“‘The project is on schedule,’ Gazprom officials intone.

Meanwhile, the available information suggests that although Power of Siberia may be a future hero, it is currently facing a struggle just to stand up,” Interfax said.

The entire project stretches 3,968 kilometers (2,465 miles) to the Chinese border at an estimated cost of U.S. $21.3 billion (140.1 billion yuan), according to the TASS news agency. So far, 80 kilometers (50 miles) of pipeline have been completed, Interfax said.

The normally well-connected news agency voiced frustration with Gazprom over unanswered questions about the project. The company has been reorganized into numbered departments without clear responsibilities, it said.

“Thus, Power of Siberia’s image is being shaped by tender flip-flops, postponements, cancelled purchases, new purchases and single-tender purchases,” said the report.

Delays have caused contractors to miss much of the winter construction season in the Siberian wilderness, when the terrain is frozen and more stable. Construction costs per kilometer are several times higher than in western Russia, it said.

But external conditions facing the project may be even more challenging.

Export gas prices have plunged nearly 50 percent since the 30-year export deal was signed, making it unlikely to still be worth U.S. $400 billion. Peak volumes under the contract would reach 38 billion cubic meters (1.3 trillion cubic feet) a year.

Reports of the start-up date for deliveries have gradually slipped from 2018 to 2019 to 2021 and beyond.

Anticipated profits shrinking

While the anticipated profits for Russia are shrinking, an expected prepayment from China of U.S. $25 billion (164.5 billion yuan) never materialized. Reports suggest that Chinese banks have been wary about lending to Russia, which is bearing dual-burdens of sanctions and recession.

Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell 3.7 percent last year, Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said Monday.

China’s reluctance to finance the pipeline has hindered Gazprom’s strategic shift to focus on Asia, which was meant to send a message to Western critics and spur competition for Russia’s resources.

In early December, Interfax said Gazprom would return to its previous practice of holding its annual investment meetings in New York and London after moving them to Hong Kong and Singapore last year.

The report cited “the indecisiveness and conservativeness of Asian investors, and also the limited size of the Asian financial market.”

Russia-China trade fell nearly 28 percent last year due in part to the oil slump, China’s General Administration of Customs (GAC) reported. Russian exports to China were down 19 percent to U.S. $31.4 billion (206.5 billion yuan).

While conditions in Russia threaten delays, weakening economic growth in China has created little pressure for speed, despite the push to replace more high-polluting coal with cleaner gas.

The growth of China’s gas consumption dropped from 17.4 percent in 2013 to 8.9 percent in 2014, according to CNPC.

Last year, the growth rate over 11 months dipped to 3.7 percent, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said.

The major market for Power of Siberia gas in China’s industrial northeast has been struggling with the slowest GDP growth rates in the country and extreme production overcapacity.

Some plants that once may have been counted as potential gas consumers are now more likely to be shut down.

The combination of factors appears to be working against the gas deal on both sides.

On Jan. 16, Ulyukayev denied that terms of the deal would change due to weaker Chinese demand after Reuters quoted a Gazprom source as saying that volumes could be cut back.

Too important to abandon

Over the past year, Russian officials have periodically pushed for additional pipelines to China, including a western route through Xinjiang, but reports of progress have been few and far between.

In November, an intergovernmental commission concluded that a “new model of cooperation” would be needed to pursue the western route in light of lower energy prices, Interfax reported at the time.

In December, Gazprom and CNPC signed an agreement on design and construction of the Amur River border crossing for the Power of Siberia project, but that work could be years away.

Despite rising problems, Moscow remains committed to the costly project, which has been seen as a key to unlocking the resource wealth of Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, said Edward Chow, senior fellow for energy and national security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“Since the agreement was signed, oil and gas prices have collapsed, projected Chinese energy demand is softer than expected, Russian country risks have gone up and its ability to finance expensive projects has deteriorated,” said Chow.

“So, delay is to be expected. The question is for how long. It would not surprise me if the project does not flow significant gas volumes until 2025 or beyond,” he said.

Chow sees the expected prepayment from China as an indicator of progress, and this has been missing. But the stakes may be too high to give up on the project.

“Since this is a strategically and politically important project for both Russia and China, it will not be abandoned.

There are always things that state-controlled companies can do to appear to make progress,” he said.

But Russia may face even tougher challenges in developing Siberia’s giant Kovykta and Chayanda gas fields that are planned to supply the pipeline.

“The pipeline itself should be the simplest part of the project,” Chow said.

The head of the Iran’s Eastern Azerbaijan Justice Department has announced the shutdown of 25 news websites for “lack of permit” and “election offenses”.

Hekmat Ali Mozafari said on the National Broadcasting channel that the government will not tolerate “election offenses” in cyberspace and will deal with them “firmly”.

Mozafari said, “All movements and activities related to the upcoming elections of the Parliament and the Assembly of Experts are being closely monitored.”

On Sunday January 24, the spokesman for the judiciary also reported on 40 cases related to charges of adverse comments “against some candidates in cyberspace” in 31 provinces.

The Kerman Cyber Police also reported last week that they have issued 82 warnings about running internet sites in connection to the elections without a permit.

Elections to select members of Iran’s Parliament and Assembly of Experts will be held in March, and reformists have faced serious obstacles to entering the race as the establishment exerts its influence through various channels.

By Wasbir Hussain*

Riding on clear signs of an ascendant India and a massive electoral mandate behind him, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on course to try and break the status quo in New Delhi’s ties with Beijing, setting the ball rolling by re-calibrating and infusing life into relations with Japan and the US. Modi knows he need not pursue anything blatantly anti-China, but only has to use India’s huge market and economic growth potential to goad Beijing to be pragmatic on the way to evolve a solution to the border logjam and agree to initiate measures to reduce the trade imbalance—two issues New Delhi would like to achieve breakthroughs on.

Much of India’s efforts in 2016 on the China front will be to work for a level playing field in areas such as access to the Chinese market to boost exports and reduce the trade gap; increasing the quantum of Chinese investments; and, of course, bridging the differences on the border question so as to resolve the issue permanently. By now, the ability of Chinese companies to peddle their wares in India is legend, but they are reluctant to invest in the country. In fact, Chinese investment in India is lesser than those of Canada, Poland, or Malaysia. For instance, in the past 14 years, UK has invested $ 21.5 billion in India; but China’s investment stands at $ 0.4 billion – less than Canada’s $ 0.5 billion.

It is true that India has dethroned China as the world’s fastest growing large economy, with a growth rate of around 7.5 per cent. However, New Delhi still has a lot to do to improve the nation’s economy and the job sector that can take care of the aspirations of the country’s 365 million youth aged between 10-24. That is the reason New Delhi has launched its ambitious ‘Make in India’ campaign and is also the prime reason why it wants China to really invest big time here. True, Japan has beat China in bagging the $15 billion contract for building India’s first bullet train project in the 505-km-long Mumbai-Ahmedabad sector. However, it is also true that an India-China consortium is conducting a feasibility study to build a high-speed rail track on the 2,200-km Chennai-Delhi sector, in addition to the 1,200-km New Delhi-Mumbai corridor.

If New Delhi, would strive for a deeper economic engagement with Beijing in the coming days, China will seek to bring India on board its ambitious and controversial ‘Silk Road’ projects that began with the launch of the ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative. China’s New Silk Road aims to link Central and South Asia by roads, railway and energy pipelines. China has already flagged off the longest cargo rail link in the world, connecting its manufacturing hub Yiwu to Madrid, Spain. One of the sectors in this belt is a corridor that envisages linking China’s Yunnan province with Myanmar, Bangladesh and India. New Delhi is wary about this project as it fears the deepening Chinese presence or influence in the region, but countries like Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Indonesia are already on board. What the Modi government will have to decide in 2016 is whether India can afford to stay away from such a trans-national connectivity initiative in today’s geopolitical scenario.

Modi’s margin of victory in the 2014 election has projected him as a strong leader – something the world was quick to recognise. China, in fact, was among the first countries to send a special envoy to India to greet him on his party’s victory. This increased the level of contacts between the two Asian giants brought Chinese President Xi Jinping to India in September 2014, followed by Indian Prime Minister Modi making a trip to China in May 2015. Again, in November 2015, India hosted the highest-ranking Chinese military delegation in about a decade. The 26-member delegation, headed by General Fan Changlong, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), held talks with the Indian military and government leadership.

These bilateral contacts are expected to continue in the coming days because both countries appear to have realised that the simultaneous re-emergence of India and China as two major powers offers a great opportunity for the realisation of the Asian Century. Both have already agreed that the border is ‘generally stable’ and have endorsed ‘concrete actions’ to implement the consensuses reached. Already, indications are emerging that the two could actually be keen to work on the economic engagement aspect more while continuing efforts to keep the border cool before a possible solution is reached.

New Delhi has taken symbolic first steps in easing relations with Beijing. During his May 2015 visit to China, Modi announced that E-Visas would be extended to Chinese tourists visiting India. It has been said that he made the announcement against the advice of the security establishment. One would now expect Beijing to stop issuing stapled visas to Indian nationals from Arunachal Pradesh – a practise aimed at reinforcing its claim on the frontier state. These are irritants New Delhi would work on in the days ahead, because removing these irritants are extremely important for a serious economic engagement at a time when China has over-burdened itself with its massive expenditure on mega connectivity projects it has launched.

Another critical issue New Delhi cannot ignore is that concerning China’s massive dam projects on the shared rivers, particularly the Yarlung Tsangpo, known in India as the Brahmaputra. The Zangmu dam near the U-bend, as the river enters Arunachal Pradesh, has already been commissioned, and Beijing has approved the construction of three more dams on the river. This has led to real and serious concerns in the lower riparian areas like Northeast India and Bangladesh. In the absence of a water treaty between the two nations and China only committed to providing India with flood-data during monsoons, India has to work hard to secure Beijing’s nod on a water agreement.

In 2016, of course, one can safely say trade and commerce would dominate the dialogue between the two countries. After all, Modi’s massive mandate enthused China Inc., long upset with India’s ‘hostile’ investment policies for Chinese investors. The setting up of two industrial parks for Chinese manufacturers and the India-China consortium being on board for a mega bullet train project has changed that perception among Chinese investors. Trade is bound to call the shots in India-China engagements as we embark on yet another new year.

* Wasbir Hussain
Executive Director, Centre for Development & Peace Studies, Guwahati, and Visiting Fellow, IPCS, New Delhi

Saudi Arabia’s Communications and Information Technology Commission has said that the country’s security agencies would enforce the new regulation requiring all telecommunication subscribers to register their fingerprints.

A CITC source, who preferred anonymity, said that fingerprints would not be required for recharging of airtime. This was a new law related only to identification of all subscribers, including visitors, Gulf citizens and Haj and Umrah pilgrims, he was quoted as saying by local media on Monday.

The CITC decision was announced last year, but implementation was delayed because some mobile service operators in the Kingdom required time to obtain fingerprint registration devices from abroad. The new measure was introduced because the current system was not working, according to reports.

The first phase of the decision will include new customers, and will require that fingerprints be provided on special devices to obtain a SIM card. The devices will be linked to the National Information Center to ensure the identities of SIM owners are accurate.

The decision was based on the Ministry of Interior’s request to ensure information of SIM cardholders are protected, and to prevent people from obtaining mobile phones with fraudulent identification cards.

The CITC had previously put in place strict requirements to obtain pre-paid SIM cards, including a written contract requiring an applicant’s full name, national identity number, nationality, phone number, details about the service requested, date and signature.

Abdur Rahman Al-Mazi, a communications and information technology expert, said that an estimated 18 million subscribers may be lost to companies providing communication services, which would result in loss of earnings.

He said that there were 53 million subscribers in the Kingdom in a population of 30 million. “There were many people with two or more services and others who could not be identified.”

During his visit to Athens, Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon accused Turkey of sponsoring terrorism by buying oil from the Islamic State (Daesh) terrorist group.

“As you know, Daesh  enjoyed Turkish money for oil for a very, very long period of time. I hope that it will be ended,” Ya’alon said during a meeting with his Greek counterpart Panos Kammenos in Athens.

The Israeli defense minister further accused Turkey of “allowing the jihadists to move freely from Europe to Syria and Iraq and back to Europe, and in this become part of the Islamic State’s infrastructure in Europe,” the Ynet reports.

“It’s up to Turkey, the Turkish government, the Turkish leadership, to decide whether they want to be part of any kind of cooperation to fight terrorism. This is not the case so far,” Moshe Ya’alon said.

Daesh (also known as ISIS/ISIL), which is outlawed in many countries including Russia, controls large areas in oil-rich Syria, Iraq and Libya. Earlier in December, the Russian Defense Ministry presented evidence showing that the jihadists had been smuggling oil across the Syria-Turkey border in large volumes (thousands of oil trucks).

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly denied profiting from IS oil trafficking and vowed to resign if indisputable evidence emerged that confirmed his family’s involvement in the Daesh oil business.

While various Silk Roads are being laid down by China for a “Greater Eurasia” economic integration, it is time to look beyond infrastructure, trade and economics. A lasting foundation must be buttressed by the building blocks of tomorrow, especially in science, technology and innovation (STI).

With the world likely entering a prolonged period of economic slowdown, as well as increasing volatilities and uncertainties, Greater Eurasia – particularly its East Asian pivot – still remains a zone of relative stability. But such stability is contingent upon maintaining a level of economic autarchy, a robust and credible medium of transaction (i.e. Global Yuan) and qualitative leaps in hi-tech innovation and exports to offset the fallouts of a shrinking global market.

East Asia can no longer depend on extra-regional exports to fund its future engines of growth. The region must leverage on its internal strengths to maintain sustainable growth; to focus more on the regional rather than the global.

Increasing regional interconnectedness therefore necessitates information and R&D collaborations at an unprecedented pace in order to “colonize” the future.

China can lead the STI Silk Road

While China-initiated Silk Routes create and merge trading, financial and infrastructural nodes, there remains a critical need to build and synergize regional STI capacity. Trade without concomitant improvements in national STI capabilities may lead to rentier-yoked economies in relatively backward regions of Southeast Asia (e.g.. in Bangladesh, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar etc). An STI Silk Road levels the playing field by combining expertise, exchanging critical knowledge and exploring solutions to fill national developmental gaps.

Incredibly, such regional undertaking may not entail costly additional investments. Apart from already extant infrastructure, newly-laid fibre optic cables and transponders along many silk routes can be used to facilitate a regional, internet-facilitated STI superhighway.

The central nodes in each nation would ideally be its universities, science and technology parks, government agencies and indigenous NGOs which should generally be open to participation from all strata of society. An Open Source approach can be employed to gauge what the people want, need and aspire in terms of their immediate development. The central nodes in each nation may act as gatekeepers in this regard while a pan-regional cluster of nodal institutions may accelerate and amplify solutions to myriad developmental imperatives.

Through a process of give and take, citizen-level aspirations can be aligned to national and regional strategic needs. Citizens must not only take credit, but share the blame as well, for the decisions they make.

Unlike the developmental plans of the West to date, the people of East Asia will be the co-stakeholders and engineers of their future development. The sheer magnitude of contradictions and chaos roiling the West right now shows what happens when the “people factor” is reduced to a “paper tiger.” This elitist trap, marked by myriad fundamental and fractionating inequalities, is to be avoided at all costs.

Insulating the Future of the East

The STI Silk Road would arguably be the ultimate regional insulator and stabilizer. The China-led Belt and Road (B&R) initiatives can be aligned to national STI clusters. This knowledge-centric approach helps ensure that no particular East Asian nation will predominate at the deleterious expense of another. The STI Silk Road will leverage the particular strengths of constituent nations and institutions. This approach may ensure a sustainable regional equilibrium, with societies, nations and regions doing what they traditionally did best.

In terms of holistic development, it is ultimately the sciences that can bridge the rural-urban divide, the core and periphery, and the haves and have nots within the region. The ideas of children will be just as important as those of expert adults. This is an emerging axiom of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT), Open Innovation and Open Government paradigms.

Where high-speed broadband cables are missing, portable and rechargeable solar packs and satellite dishes may ensure adequate connectivity, bringing the region into a single knowledge matrix. The English language – once an artificial transplantation into the region – would now smooth over linguistic divides. Asia has always had the capacity to absorb the blows of colonial outsiders, learn from the bitter experience, and turn the tables to its advantage.

Securitizing Asia’s Future

Asian media leaders are already working on an “information Silk Road” in tandem with the main Silk Road initiatives to promote Asia as “a community of shared destiny.” Why not fortify that shared Asian destiny via an Open Source matrix for science-based developments?

Such an interlinked cluster can be used for transboundary crisis management as well. For example, a plant pathologist may need inputs from lecturers or experts in various sub-domains to map out the impacts of a detected rice fungus half the world away. Since rice is the primary diet of East Asia, such a threat needs to be detected and prioritized through an OSINT-based early warning system. Experts from within the STI Silk Road may consult each other to draw up a contingency management plan i.e. what action plans need be formulated, and which Silk Road university or institution should lead this rapid response project. An emerging threat can be effectively neutralized this way.

An STI Silk Road therefore not only focuses on opportunities and development, it “securitizes” our future. Apart from hi-tech innovation, citizens in an economically depressed world can also be empowered to exchange forms of regional jugaad (frugal) innovation via Open Source tools.

Inaction is not an option if the region is to avoid a repeat of the East Asian financial and currency crises of 1997. The coming set of crises is slated to be far worse than preceding ones in recent memory.

China can therefore help secure the future of East Asia by adding yet another golden strand into the Silk Road tapestry. It is time to create an STI Silk Road.

This article originally appeared as an Op-Ed at CCTV.com

Ammon Bundy, the leader of the armed group occupying a federal wildlife refuge near Burns, Oregon, and four others have been arrested by law enforcement amid gunfire, according to the FBI.

At 4:25 pm on Tuesday afternoon, the FBI and Oregon State Police “began an enforcement action to bring into custody a number of individuals associated with the armed occupation of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge. During that arrest, there were shots fired,” the Bureau said in a statement.

The FBI said one person who was “a subject of a federal probable cause arrest is deceased.” He said they are not releasing any information on the person “pending identification by the medical examiner’s office.”

One person suffered non-life threatening injuries and was taken to a local hospital for treatment. He was arrested and is in custody.

The arrested individuals include:

• Ammon Edward Bundy, age 40, of Emmett, Idaho.
• Ryan C. Bundy, age 43, of Bunkerville, Nevada.
• Brian Cavalier, age 44, of Bunkerville, Nevada.
• Shawna Cox, age 59, of Kanab, Utah.
• Ryan Waylen Payne, age 32, of Anaconda, Montana.

According to KATU News, Bundy and the others were arrested near the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge. Shots were fired after FBI agents and Oregon State Police made a traffic stop.

Oregon Live has reported that “self-styled journalist” Pete Santilli said the FBI has told the protesters at the refuge to leave immediately.

However, investigative reporter Les Zaitz, who was reportedly at the refuge, cites a protester as stating that there is no police presence there.

Images posted on social media purport to show a Bundy militia supporter being arrested by law enforcement. However, the FBI confirmed that this arrest took place separately from the one involving Bundy.

A #bundymilitia supporter, Oathkeeper Joe O’Shaughnessy arrest in Burns for prob cause crim offense. State cops, FBI pic.twitter.com/vqoqepKH5x

— Arun Gupta (@arunindy) January 27, 2016

According to OPB News, Bundy and other protesters were scheduled to meet at the John Day Senior Center in neighboring Grant County, but Bundy never appeared.

Highways near Burns have been shut down by the Oregon Department of Transportation and the Harney District Hospital in Burns is also on lockdown, OPB stated.

Bundy and his band of protesters have been occupying the refuge for weeks now. The group is protesting federal ownership of wide swathes of land in the West and wants to see control of it returned to local and state jurisdiction.

Iran’s Guardian Council has rejected Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the late Islamic Republic leader Ayatollah Khomeini, as a candidate for membership in the Assembly of Experts.

Hassan Khomeini did not sit for a jurisprudence exam, which the council announced for the first time as a requirement for those seeking to run for membership of the Assembly of Experts.

The Guardian Council has reportedly disqualified many reformist figures but it did approve Hassan Rohani and Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, both current members of the assembly.

Of 810 potential candidates, the council has only approved 166. Hassan Khomeini has been widely regarded as a reformist figure and a supporter of opposition leaders MirHosein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, who have been under house arrest since 2011 for their allegations of vote fraud after the 2009 presidential election.

The council also rejected all female candidates who had registered to run in the Assembly of Experts election.

By Aman Malik*

At the outset, the deferment of foreign secretary level talks between India and Pakistan might make it seem as if the usual ‘start-stop-start’ script that the diplomatic engagement between the neighbours has seen in the past, is playing itself out again. This time, however, things might just be different.

The fact that Pakistan has set up a Special Investigation Team (SIT) to jointly probe the Pathankot terror attack with India, and has moved to detain Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) chief Maulana Masood Azhar, indicates at least a tacit admission that the attack was planned on its soil, rather than an outright denial, which has been its standard response after almost every terror attack on India, that originated from Pakistan. In fact, on 24 January, Pakistan prime minister Nawaz Sharif said that India had given fresh evidence on the attack, and that his government would pursue it. Even if nothing comes of the investigation, as would most likely be the case, the move is a welcome departure from the past.

India, which had, since prime minister Narendra Modi took office in May 2014, initiated dialogue at least twice, only to cancel it, has acted maturely by not calling talks off altogether, but just postponing them. It almost appears as if the Indian government wants to see how far the civilian leadership in Pakistan can exert itself against the all powerful military controlled Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). At least prima facie, both governments appear to want to give the peace process a serious chance.

So, what is different this time that the two countries are showing restraint, as opposed to the belligerence that they are wont to exhibit after every such attack?

Analysts in Pakistan say that Modi’s ascent, with a decisive mandate, was actually welcomed by the Pakistan army, which continues to call the shots on strategic affairs, especially on relations with India. In fact, the General Headquarters (GHQ) at Rawalpindi had been more comfortable dealing with a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) regime during Atal Behari Vajpayee’s premiership, than during the decade when Manmohan Singh headed a United Progressive Alliance government.

After all, Vajpayee and former Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf had come close to a workable resolution on Kashmir, and the general perception therefore in Pakistan has been that only a right-wing BJP government would have the political will to deliver peace.

Further, the general view among almost all major political parties-the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), Pakistan Peoples Party and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, appears to suggest that they broadly want normalisation of relations with India in the long-term, as does the business community. The only major mainstream political party that continues to have a hawkish position on India is the right-wing fundamentalist Jamaat-e-Islami.

Sharif appears to want this view among political parties to gain critical mass, to push back the military and strengthen himself politically. Simply put, he needs some breathing space, and for that, a continued engagement with India is crucial. This is perhaps why the Pakistan government has not officially rubbished India’s assertion that the Pathankot attack was directed from their side.

India backing away from talks more than once, after the Pakistanis engaged the Kashmiri separatist Hurriyat Conference, sent mixed signals to Islamabad. Over time, New Delhi perhaps realised the futility of its intransigent stand. After all, the Hurriyat had been regularly meeting Pakistani diplomats, so what was different this time, that prompted the Modi government to call talks off? If anything, these sudden and inexplicable U-turns only showed that the BJP regime did not yet have a firm handle on its Pakistan policy.

Then, in the clearest signal yet, that India wanted serious diplomatic engagement with Pakistan, Modi suddenly went to Lahore, an impromptu visit that was high on optics. This was followed by the attack on the Indian Air Force base at Pathankot.

Now, this time, India actually had a valid reason to call talks off. But since Modi had gone a little too far in taking the engagement forward, and there was anyway much international pressure on Pakistan to act against terror, India did not pull out, but only deferred talks. In all likelihood, had Modi not made that Lahore trip, talks could possibly have been called off.

Moreover, the view in New Delhi is that by not engaging with Sharif, India would only embolden the military vis-a-vis him. One school of thought says that India should in fact, use talks with the civilian government, as a cover to directly engage with the military establishment in Pakistan. In fact, a bit of that was visible in December Pakistan’s new National Security Advisor (NSA) retired lieutenant general Nasir Janjua, a former three-star general, had met his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval in Bangkok, in what was reportedly a ‘secret’ meeting, that apparently laid the ground for the foreign secretary level talks.

There is however good reason for skepticism in India about what the setting up of an investigation team and a joint probe would actually achieve in real terms. After all, Pakistan has done this before.

The JeM was involved in the attack on the Indian parliament in December 2001, following which the two countries had amassed troops along their borders for around 10 months. Following this, Azhar was detained and subsequently freed.

Then, after the November 2008 terror attacks on Mumbai, Pakistan had similarly begun investigations, had even detained Jamaat-ud-Dawah chief Hafiz Saeed, only to be freed later.

What happens next?

The prime ministers of both countries are personally invested in the peace process. In all likelihood therefore, talks will resume, even if the joint investigations come to nothing, unless of course, another major terror attack occurs and India pulls back under force of domestic public opinion.

Having said that, India must be prepared to face more such attacks, as is evidenced from the statements coming from jihadi outfits in Pakistan, including the Kashmiri separatist United Jihad Council. If anything, the attack on a forward airbase like Pathankot has yet again exposed how vulnerable the Indian intelligence set up is.

There is, in fact, nothing as yet to suggest that the ISI or its jihadi affiliates like the JeM and Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT) would stop waging a covert war against India. After all, having known what they stand for, why have they not been dismantled, despite causing as much or more harm within Pakistan itself?

Pakistan has a “flawed political structure,” as one security analyst put it, and India must be mindful of that while dealing with its neighbor.

By James Crisp

(EurActiv) — The European Commission said Tuesday it could agree to a suspension of border-free travel in the Schengen zone of up to two years, and that nearly two thirds of migrants entering the EU in December were not eligible for asylum because they did not come from conflict zones.

The refugee crisis has meant some European countries have reintroduced border controls in the passport-free Schengen zone of 26 nations. Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Austria, France have introduced border controls with a six month limit. Non-EU member state Norway has introduced temporary controls. Poland is considering doing the same.

On Monday (25 January), EU home affairs ministers meeting in Amsterdam called on the Commission to extend the time limit countries are allowed to suspend Schengen. Article 26 of the Schengen treaty could see it suspended for up to two years, if public order and security concerns are judged serious enough. A decision on some kind of extension will likely be needed by May.

Today, the Commission said it did not think that the situation was serious enough to warrant the extension. But, it said it was pursuing options available to it under Article 26.

“We know that migratory flows are not going to be subsiding soon and as the weather changes are even likely to increase. So if situation does not change there could indeed be justifications under public order and security reasons to maintain internal controls as long as external borders not effectively controlled,” said spokeswoman Natasha Bertaud.

Economic migrants

Commission First Vice-President Frans Timmermans, President Jean-Claude Juncker’s right-hand man, made the comments about economic migrants to a Dutch newspaper.

The European Commission said the figures were from Frontex, the EU’s border agency. They were not yet public, Bertaud told reporters in Brussels.

“[The figures] showed that for December, the share of people not likely to be eligible for asylum is a lot higher than we’ve seen in rest of 2015.”

She said the figure, the latest available, was “roughly 60%”. What we are seeing in January is that this might be dropping again, Bertaud said.

Timmermans had used the figures to highlight the need for an effective, EU-wide migrant return policy. “The point First Vice-President Timmermans was trying to make is that we have to focus on return policies. Citizens’ support for genuine asylum seekers will be weakened if those who don’t have the right to international protection are also allowed to stay in Europe,” Bertaud added.

“We are determined to do whatever it takes,” said Commission Chief Spokesman Margaritis Schinas, “to make sure there is a clear differentiation between those who are protected under international law and economic migrants, which are trying to seize the opportunity to enter Europe and have to be returned.”

But the system – involving ‘hotspots’ for registration, relocation centres for approved refugees, and eventual relocation, is not working.

At yesterday’s meeting in Amsterdam, two Greek representatives said they had tried but failed to send back migrants from Morocco and Pakistan.

The executive admitted that there were difficulties in returning economic migrants. The EU has a readmission agreement with Pakistan, but there had been problems with returning Pakistan nationals from Greece since last year. There is no readmission agreement with Morocco yet, but it was being negotiated.

“We still have problems getting readmission put into practice,” Bertaud said today. “What the Commission is doing now is looking at possible incentives, both positive and negative, to make sure it is applied.”

A Pakistani man was stabbed to death on the Greek-Macedonian border yesterday. The incident occurred near no-man’s-land on the border between Greece and Macedonia, where thousands of migrants of different nationalities gather daily, hoping to secure passage to other destinations in Europe.

Two other Pakistanis were hurt in the early morning attack allegedly carried out by Afghans, local police said.

Migration Commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos said after Monday’s meeting in Amsterdam that member states needed to take some of the blame for its failures. The relocation of refugees has so far been a failure.

“We find ourselves with more internal border controls, questionable legislative procedures towards asylum seekers or refugees, less solidarity, less responsibility, and more individual and uncoordinated decisions,” he said.

“I will be very frank with you, this year has not started very easily. I can tell you I am not optimistic but I am not defeatist, and neither is the Commission.”

But Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said this morning, “I feel that we in the EU are now committing ritual suicide and we’re just looking on.”

Denmark today votes on laws requiring migrants to give up their valuables to pay for their housing. The wealthy Scandinavian country is not the only country targeting refugee possessions.

Switzerland has started taking valuables worth over 1,000 Swiss francs ($985), the German state of Baden-Württemberg secures valuables above 350 euros ($380), while other southern states have been reported to do the same.

Denmark is not the only one trying to shut its doors to migrants. Sweden, which took in over 160,000 refugees last year, the most per capita in Europe, introduced checks on its border to Denmark at the start of the year.

Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven promised on Monday more resources for police after a 22-year-old employee was stabbed to death at a refugee centre for unaccompanied minors. A minor was arrested suspected of murder or manslaughter after the incident in Molndal in western Sweden, local TT news agency reported.

Member states that do not tackle immigration should be temporarily suspended from the Schengen area, the President of the European People’s Party (EPP), Joseph Daul, told EurActiv yesterday.

An extension of border controls has also sparked concerns that Greece, the landing point for about 80% of all migrants arriving in Europe, could be effectively frozen out of Schengen. The Commission denied yesterday that any such plans existed.

“If we do not manage to secure Europe’s external border, this is the Greek-Turkish border, the European external border will move towards central Europe,” Austrian Interior Minister Johanna Mikl-Leitner said Monday. Last week Mikl-Leitner warned Athens could face “temporary exclusion” from Schengen.

The Prime Minister of Kosovo is expected in Brussels tomorrow to discuss an association agreement with the EU. Reports that he would not attend because of the EU’s refusal to liberalise the visa system, to allow easier travel into the EU, were denied by the Commission.

Migrants drowned

Five migrants were killed on Tuesday when their boat sank in the Aegean Sea while trying to cross from Turkey’s western coast to EU member Greece, reports said.

16 more people were rescued by air and by sea in a search and rescue operation by the Turkish coastguard, the Dogan news agency said.

The migrants had earlier set off from the district Didim in Aydin province in an apparent bid to reach the Greek island of Farmakonisi.

Turkey, which is home to at least 2.2 million refugees from Syria’s civil war, has become a hub for migrants seeking to reach Europe, many of whom pay people smugglers thousands of dollars for the risky crossing.

Ankara reached an agreement with the EU in November to stem the flow of refugees heading to Europe, in return for €3 billion in financial assistance.

But the deal and the onset of winter do not appear to have deterred the migrants, with boats still arriving on the Greek islands daily.

According to a statement by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) Tuesday, 45,361 migrants have arrived in Greece by sea so far this year, 31 times more than for all of January 2015.

Some 90% of the new arrivals are from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan,it added. The IOM said it has recorded 158 deaths in the eastern Mediterranean this year, along with 19 more in the central Mediterranean, bringing the total number of deaths in 2016 to 177.

As chaos continues to torment the nation, Bangladeshi politics is currently mired in a crisis around questions of national identity. A common theme of concern for the nation among the people remains the looming uncertainty in the country. The capital Dhaka and other parts of the country have been witnessing a series of shutdowns and violent protests in the past few months. Violent protests and large scale destruction have claimed more than 100 lives so far across the country and the crisis shows no signs of abating.

The ruling Awami League government refused to treat the unrest as a political crisis and call fresh elections. The incumbent Awami League, led by the Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, was re-elected easily thanks to an opposition boycott. Nearly 50 people have been killed and more than 10,000 opposition activists arrested. BNP leaders are mostly in jail, in exile or in hiding, and face criminal charges that will probably bar them from running in the next election. The government temporarily cut the electricity supply and internet cables to Mrs Zia’s redoubt.

Ever since democracy was restored in Bangladesh in the early 1990s, the country has been marred by a deep distrust between the two main political parties – the Awami League (AL) and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). This distrust stands in the way of strengthening democratic institutions, such as the Electoral Commission (EC). As a result the main opposition does not want to run for elections while the ruling party controls the EC and is demanding the formation of a neutral government to oversee the poll. This issue led to a logjam in 1995 and 2001 and the suspension of democratic processes from 2006 to 2008. When the Awami League government, led by Sheikh Hasina, came to power in 2008 with an overwhelming majority, it nullified the system of caretaker government despite opposition from rival political parties.

Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League and BNP of Khaleda Zia are known for rigging elections, necessitating an interim caretaker administration to conduct the poll. In 2006 Mrs Zia’s party, at the end of a particularly corrupt and incompetent stint in office, tried to rig that system too but the army stepped in to back a non-party “technocratic” government, which after two years held an election in favor of a landslide by Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League.
Bangladesh, a country of nearly 160m people, has been paralyzed but the government does not think it should do anything to make the nation and government properly functional. The opposition leader, Khaleda Zia, had been confined to a party office in the capital, Dhaka. Her Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has staged a nationwide blockade of roads, railways and waterways.

The 10th parliamentary elections, held in a hurry without the participation of the opposition parties, did not bring any new changes to the political landscape of the country. The ruling party had already won more than 150 seats unopposed in the House, out of 300, and the polling in early January was a mere formality. Awami league won with hands down without opposition participation.

Such bogus polls anywhere in the world do not have any legitimacy. But the western and eastern democracies would not interfere with the political process of Muslim nations if they are endorsed by Saudi Arabia. Riyadh has not objected to the political fraud of the ruling party.

Despite the constitutional amendment, the BNP was not willing to participate in general elections unless its demand for a caretaker government was met. But the Hasina government went ahead with the poll and won the majority of seats. Intervention from the international community and the United Nations has failed to bring any kind of reconciliation between the major political parties. The general elections on January 5 was held without any participation from the largest opposition party and its alliance partners, thereby raising serious question about the legitimacy of the electoral process and the future of Bangladesh’s nascent democracy.

In the just concluded municipal poll, BNP was wise enough to participate because no power on earth can cancel the polls if held by the regime by ignoring basic democratic traditions. USA and its western capitalist allies would talk about democracy probably just for fun in order to suit some cause and in fact they are not at all serous about nay democracy or human rights. Hence they did nothing to stop the elections held without opposition participation.
Local poll victories seem to have empowered the ruling party not to take the opposition parties seriously enough. The opposition claims that ruling party adopted unfair means in the polls. The government prefers to ignore the call by the opposition BNP for a constructive dialog for building a better nation. The confrontational attitude of ruling and opposition parties gives little scope for peaceful development of the nation.

Meanwhile, the ruling Awami League organised the rallies to celebrate January 5 as ‘victory day for democracy’ claiming that the January 5 municipal elections helped protect the country’s democracy and uphold the continuity of the constitutional process. The party’s local unit at different district and metropolitan cities also organised rallies marking the day.

The BNP, however, observes the day as ‘democracy killing day’ alleging that the country’s democratic process was destroyed by the January 5 elections, in which 153 lawmakers were elected unopposed amidst boycott by all opposition parties. ‘We have no grievance or grudge against anyone. But Hasina should confess to mistakes…We want to work together to restore democracy,’ Khaleda said.

It was for the first time in more than one year that the BNP chief addressed such a big open rally. Law enforcers equipped with water cannon vehicles and Armoured Personnel Carrier were deployed around the rally venue. Leaders and activists of BNP and its associate organizations join the program from different wards of Dhaka city and its adjacent districts including Narayanganj.

Bangladesh Commerce minister Tofail Ahmed said Khaleda should observe January 5 repentance day as she failed to bring army to power through foiling the elections. Tofail, also presidium member of Awami League, said that BNP joined the municipal polls under the Sheikh Hasina’s government, but they boycotted the national polls. He also said BNP will be defeated in the 2019 general election like it suffered in the municipal polls.

BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia on January 05 urged the Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League government to sit for a dialog immediately to create positive environment conducive for holding a fair and neutral general election to restore democracy in the country. ‘Let us find a solution through discussion,’ Khaleda said at a rally Dhaka city BNP organised in front of the central BNP office at Naya Paltan marking the second anniversary of the January 5, 2014 general elections, boycotted by all opposition parties.

The Awami League claimed that by contesting the municipal polls under the incumbents BNP has accepted the government’s legitimacy to rule. Khaleda said that Awami League had also contested local body polls under BNP government and local government elections are usually held under the political government and hence it contested.
Awami League leaders urged BNP and its chairperson Khaleda Zia to stop creating problems and wait three more years for the next general elections and said the polls will be held under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina in accordance with the constitution. Addressing two separate rallies at city’s Bangabandhu Avenue and Russel Square, they defended the January 5, 2014 elections and said martial law would have returned in the country if the elections were not held.

Recently, Awami League General Secretary Syed Ashraful Islam yesterday said BNP will be thrown into the dustbin of history if it fails to accept the truth. “The formation of a party doesn’t mean it’ll survive forever. A party can lose its existence if it refuses to accept the reality,” he said, and questioned patriotism of former premier of BNP. He claimed the BNP and its chief are creating controversies over the number of martyrs, the proclamation of independence by Bangabandhu and his contribution, and Liberation War. Pakistan is her sacred place and she can’t move even an inch from it.

Several specialists blame the Hasina led Awami League’s rigidity for the present chaos in the country. The war crimes tribunal is flawed and prejudiced and that it serves to prosecute political opposition. She wanted to punish those who are closed to the opposition BNP which spearheaded demonstrations against the government and she performed that ask pretty well. Those supporting the government hold BNP-Jamaat responsible for the current mess in the country.

II

Unfortunately, Bangladesh suffers a dysfunctional two-party system, in which the two major party leaders, the “battling begums”, wage a personal vendetta at the country’s expense. From 1991 they have rotated in office, promoting chaos. The personal animus between the begums has helped foster a winner-takes-all approach to politics in which the futility of rigged elections forces the opposition on to the streets.

The AL party has used its majority to entrench its power, and make it impossible for the BNP the ever to win an election: by abolishing the caretaker system, hounding its leaders and banning its largest coalition partner, Jamaat-e-Islami, for its avowedly Islamic platform by deliberately bringing in the so-called crimes during the 1970 freedom struggle. Now the government claims it is combating acts of vandalism and terrorism by the BNP. The opposition accuses the government of trying to create a one-party state.

At the center of the continuous political crisis today was the 10th parliamentary election wherein only the ruling party contested and won as per a conspiracy, making a complete mockery of democracy, in which , but a larger issue is at hand: the fight between moderate and secular forces on the one hand and radical Islamic forces on the other. The infighting takes place around the roles India and Pakistan play viz a viz Bangladesh. New Delhi plays a great role in deciding the political direction of its eastern neighbor, considering the proximity the ruling Awami League enjoys with political leadership in India.

The main fight is between Islamic forces, led by Jamaat-e-Islami and Hefat-e-Islam, both of whom are allied with the BNP, on the one hand and the semi-secular and pro-anti-Islam political coalition with the Awami League as its head on the other. The battle between these two opposing ideological coalitions became more pronounced after the setting up of Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal, which is prosecuting war criminals who sided with Pakistan and indulged in violence against Bangladeshis during the country’s liberation movement in 1971.

Last month, a prominent Jamaat-e-Islami leader, Abdul Quader Mollah, became the first prominent leader to be sentenced to execution by the tribunal. His hanging stoked violence in several parts of the country.

The former Prime Minister Khaleda urged AL to test its popularity through an election under a neutral government. She said that fair and neutral election was never possible under Awami League government and that the Awami League wanted to show its popularity holding partisan local government polls for the first time. She said that AL could not assess its real popularity because it used police, RAB, Chhatra League and Juba League in election.

Demanding immediate resignation of the Election Commission, Khaleda said that the commission exposed its feeling of ‘helplessness’ seeking prime minister’s intervention to contain irregularities in municipal polls. She alleged that the commission violated the constitution by not deploying army in the municipal polls and worked as an ‘agent’ of AL party and government.

But the AL general secretary Syed Ashraful Islam, presiding over the rally at Bangabandhu Avenue, said that Khaleda as opposition leader killed 64 people, injured 1,500 and destroyed 700 vehicles in the name of protecting democracy. He called on BNP to practice ‘peaceful’ politics in the country and said the next general elections would be held in a free and fair manner. ‘It will not be necessary to anyone in that election. We believe in democracy,’ he added.

The BNP chairperson alleged that the Awami League had a link to militancy.

Citing incidents of bomb blasts at Udichi function in Jessore, Ramna Batamul and CPB rally, she said that militancy rose when AL was in power. Khaleda said that Awami League frequently scared foreigners that secularism would not exist if AL was not in power. She said that BNP wants peace not militancy. She alleged that secular credentials of the nation are under threat during the rule of Awami League.

Khaleda said that none would be allowed to use the soil of Bangladesh to attack others. She asked why perpetrators of the recent killing of foreigners in Bangladesh were not identified rather BNP leaders and activists were being arrested in false cases and why street lights and CCTV cameras were switched off in Gulshan during the killing of select persons. Referring to ongoing movements of teachers, engineers, physicians and various public servants, Khaleda said the government was discriminating against different cadres. She asked the government to meet the demands raised by different cadres or to face the consequences.

Khaleda urged people of all walks of life to get united and to carry out peaceful democratic programs to oust the ‘oppressor’ government. The BNP chief also asked the government to stop repression, killing, arrests and enforced disappearance to avoid dire consequences. The government is enacting new laws to repress opposition. She demanded immediate release of detained politicians and journalists including Nagarik Oikya convener Mahmudur Rahman Manna, Amar Desh acting editor Mahmudur Rahman, journalist leader Shawkat Mahmud and Chhatra Dal president Rajib Ahsan.

The AL leaders said BNP, along with Jamaat, made an all-out effort to save the war criminals by foiling the January 5 general elections. They urged the BNP to come to the path of democracy through participating in the next general elections and cut off all political ties with Jamaat and destructive politics. Sheikh Fazlul Huq Selim asked Khaleda why BNP had joined the municipal polls if Hasina’s government was illegal. He said there was no alternative to Awami League and Hasina for development of the country.

Awami League leader Mahbubul Alam Hanif urged the BNP leaders to reorganize the party without Khaleda Zia saying Khaleda had lost the right to do politics in Bangladesh after making derogatory remark regarding the number of liberation war martyred. Some local AL leaders addressing a rally at Chittagong Central Shaheed Minar premises said Khaleda should be driven out of the country for her derogatory remarks over the Liberation War martyrs.

III

In Bangladesh there is a deep-seated problem of political mistrust between the two main political parties. This distrust is rooted in history. The seeds of distrust were laid when Islamic groups opposed the idea of Bangladesh and later on extremist religious groups found patronage at the hands of the BNP. This is the reason that institutions like the Election Commission are not strong and independent in the country. Bureaucracy is divided along political lines and civil society also plays partisan roles.

The ruling Awami league government continues on collusion politics even after the party swept the local municipal poll last month, leaving a meager number of seats to the opposition parties.

As it stands, the general tone of the ruling party is very rough and tough, even mocking at the opposition for its failure in winning enough seats at least in the municipal polls.

India, for the first time since 1971, has lost some credibility in the eyes of the people of Bangladesh. The impression among a section of the populace is that New Delhi has failed to help, support and guide its junior brother in the hour of crisis. This failure is not because of political leadership but because of lackluster diplomacy of New Delhi.

Bangladesh is also unhappy that Indian forces detect and harass Bangladeshis who go to Indian side for work.
The big question is whether the major political players will bury their differences and allow the democratic process to go on in Bangladesh or seek military rule again. The answer could be rooted in the very idea of Bangladesh: a predominantly Muslim country separated from Pakistan in 1971 on the question of its linguistic and ethnic identity.

The Hasina regime has made Islam look like a sham. So much so Bangladeshis have very little concern for genuine Islamic faith, possible except in certain rituals. People under the AL government have no time or interest in Islam. Many Bangaldeshi politicians even see Islam as the religion of Pakistan and hence they do not want to promote it as their prime duty as faithful Muslims.

The pseudo patriotic passions the Hasina government seeks to espouse among the people in order to win polls would not last long. Its premises are very close to the Indian Hindutva parties.

The European Commission was not prepared for the first requests for financial assistance during the 2008 financial crisis because warning signs had passed unnoticed, according to a new report from the European Court of Auditors.

The auditors found that the Commission did succeed in managing assistance programs which brought about reform, despite its lack of experience, and they point to a number of positive outcomes. But they also identify several areas of concern relating to the Commission’s “generally weak” handling of the crisis: countries treated differently, limited quality control, weak monitoring of implementation and shortcomings in documentation.

“The effects of the crisis are still being felt today, and the resulting loan programs have since run into billions of euros,” said Mr Baudilio Tomé Muguruza, the Member of the European Court of Auditors responsible for the report. “So it is imperative that we learn from the mistakes which were made.”

The auditors analyzed the Commission’s management of the financial assistance provided to five Member States – Hungary, Latvia, Romania, Ireland and Portugal. They found that the Commission was successful in taking on its new management duties; given the time constraints, they say, this was an achievement. As the crisis unfolded, the Commission increasingly marshaled internal expertise and engaged with a wide range of stakeholders in the countries concerned. Later reforms also introduced better macroeconomic surveillance.

While pointing to a number of important positive outcomes, the detailed audit report identifies four main areas of concern about the Commission’s handling of the crisis: the different approaches used, limited quality control, weak monitoring and shortcomings in documentation.

Important positive outcomes: the auditors noted that the programs did meet their objectives. The revised deficit targets were mostly met. Structural deficits improved, although at a varying pace. Member States complied with most conditions set in their programs, albeit with some delays. The programs were successful in prompting reforms. Countries mostly continued with the reforms required by the program conditions and in four of the five countries, the current account adjusted faster than expected.

Different approaches: the auditors found several examples of countries not being treated in the same way in a comparable situation. In some programs, the conditions for assistance were less stringent, which made compliance easier. The structural reforms required were not always in proportion to the problems faced, or they pursued widely different paths. Some countries’ deficit targets were relaxed more than the economic situation would appear to justify.

Limited quality control: the review of key documents by the Commission’s program teams was insufficient in several respects. The underlying calculations were not reviewed outside the team, the work of the experts was not thoroughly scrutinized and the review process was not well documented.

Weak monitoring: the Commission used accrual-based deficit targets. Their achievement can only be observed after a certain time has elapsed. They ensure consistency with the excessive deficit procedure, but when a decision on program continuation is to be taken, the Commission cannot report with certainty whether the Member State has actually met the target.

Shortcomings in documentation: the Commission used an existing and rather cumbersome spreadsheet-based forecasting tool. Documentation was not geared towards going back in time to evaluate the decisions taken. The availability of records improved, but even for the most recent programs some key documents were missing. The conditions in memoranda of understanding were not always sufficiently focused on the general economic policy conditions set by the Council.

The European Court of Auditors recommends that the European Commission should:

• establish an institution-wide framework allowing rapid mobilization of staff and expertise if a financial assistance program emerges
• subject its forecasting process to more systematic quality control
• enhance record keeping and pay attention to it in the quality review
• ensure proper procedures for the quality review of program management and content
• include variables in the memoranda of understanding which it can collect with short time-lags
• distinguish conditions by importance and target the truly important reforms
• formalize interinstitutional cooperation with other program partners
• make the debt management process more transparent
• further analyze the key aspects of the countries’ adjustment after program closure.

A comprehensive analysis of oil in the Gulf of Mexico and determined how much of it occurs naturally and how much came from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon spill, has been developed by a Florida State University researcher and his team.

And more importantly, their data creates a map, showing where the active natural oil seeps are located.

The research was recently released online by the Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans and is also the basis for a paper with researchers at Columbia University published today in Nature Geoscience.

In total, 4.3 million barrels were released into the Gulf from the oil spill versus an annual release of 160,000 to 600,000 barrels per year from naturally occurring seeps, according to the new results.

“This information gives us context for the Deepwater Horizon spill,” said FSU Professor of Oceanography Ian MacDonald. “Although natural seeps are significant over time, the spill was vastly more concentrated in time and space, which is why its impact was so severe.”

Among the findings was that dispersants were able to eliminate about 21 percent the oil that floated on the surface of the Gulf of Mexico after the spill, but at the cost of spreading the remaining oil over a 49 percent larger area.

This map of oil also provides a basis for additional scientific research.

Using this new set of data, scientists will be able to go to a controlled area where they already know oil exists and perform controlled observations, as opposed to spilling new oil into an area. It also shows how the Gulf has adapted to natural oil seeps.

Researcher Ajit Subramaniam, an oceanographer at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, used the data set to focus on natural oil seeps and discovered something unusual — phytoplankton, the base of the marine food chain — were thriving in the area of these natural oil seeps. The results published in Nature Geoscience show that phytoplankton concentrations near the oil seeps were as much as twice as productive as those a few kilometers away where there were no seeps.

“This is the beginning of evidence that some microbes in the Gulf may be preconditioned to survive with oil, at least at lower concentrations,” Subramaniam said. “In this case, we clearly see these phytoplankton are not negatively affected at low concentrations of oil, and there is an accompanying process that helps them thrive. This does not mean that exposure to oil at all concentrations for prolonged lengths of time is good for phytoplankton.”

MacDonald had been working on data using satellite images of natural oil seeps for 10 years, and added in the Deepwater Horizon spill work a few years ago.

“It’s giving us a basis for all of these other experiments,” MacDonald said. “It’s really revolutionizing how we look at the Gulf. It also gives scientists the exact geographic points where oil from the spill was located, so researchers can go to the Gulf floor and explore the area to see if there has been any environmental effect.”

The vast forests of the Amazon store enormous amounts of carbon that help moderate the Earth’s temperature, but a new study shows that this carbon-storing capacity is being threatened by over-hunting.

Wide-scale reduction of fruit-eating large mammals – especially primates and tapirs – is changing the way seeds are dispersed in the Amazon and changing the composition of forests, the researchers say.

Results of the study are being published this week in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

“Large mammals including spider monkeys and wooly monkeys are fruit-eaters that historically have made up most of the frugivore (or fruit-eating) biomass in these forests,” said Taal Levi, an Oregon State University ecologist and author on the study. “There are many tree species with large seeds that rely on these primates to spread seeds through the forest.

“These large-seeded fruit trees are also slow-growing and populate the forest with dense wood that sequesters a great deal more carbon than in typically stored in trees dispersed by wind or smaller frugivores,” Levi added.

As technology has advanced and firearms have spread through tropical forests, hunting success has improved and these primates have been extirpated from vast areas, Levi pointed out.

“When large primates and tapirs, which are the largest frugivores in the neo-tropics, are lost, forests are eventually populated by plants whose seeds are more likely dispersed by wind, rodents or birds,” Levi said. “It is not the same aggregation of plants and it is affecting the Amazon’s carbon-storing ability.”

In fact, the researchers say, over-hunting occurs over much larger areas than the total area of the Amazon forest affected by deforestation. A relatively small loss in the amount of carbon stored in trees can lead to enormous declines in the amount of carbon stored in these vast forests.

The analysis of 166 wildlife surveys across the Amazon basin documents the loss of large primates. Levi’s computer model projects that this will result in more than three out of four plots losing forest biomass, with a (conservatively) estimated average loss of 2.5 to 3 percent.

Tapirs are another key seed disperser that is sensitive to over-hunting. When tapirs are lost in addition to large primates, nearly nine out of 10 plots will lose forest biomass with the loss (conservatively) projected to average about 5.8 percent.

“The loss of 2.5 to 5.8 percent of biomass may not sound like a lot,” Levi said, “but in an area as vast as the Amazon, the impact could be huge – a projected 313 billion kilograms of carbon not being absorbed.”

Levi said the economic value of such a loss on the world carbon markets could range between $5.91 trillion and $13.65 trillion.

The researchers studied data from 2,345 one-hectare forest plots scattered across the Brazilian Amazon containing nearly 130,000 large trees. Simulations showed that 77 to 88 percent of these plots will lose above-ground forest biomass when the forests are over-hunted and trees that require large primates or tapirs to regenerate are replaced by other trees on the same plots.

Carlos Peres, a research ecologist with the University of East Anglia and lead author on the study, said the research uncovers an important – and perhaps under-appreciated – link between wildlife and climate change.

“Amazonian forest wildlife has been declining through a combination of habitat destruction, habitat degradation and overhunting since the 1950s,” Peres said, “but until now there was a poor understanding of the status of wildlife populations in hunted forests that otherwise remain intact and free of human disturbance.

“We show that dense-wooded, large-seeded Amazonian tree species are replaced by light-wooded trees that produce smaller seeds, which continue to be dispersed in over-hunted forests by more resilient smaller mammal and bird species,” he added.

Levi said trying to manage the forests by manually dispersing seeds would be impractical because of the vastness of the Amazonian forests. There also is evidence that seeds that go through the digestive tract of large mammals are more likely to germinate having been cleansed of flesh that attracts fungal pathogens and other natural enemies.

“Seeds that fall from trees contain a lot of pulp,” Levi said, “and in tropical climates become excellent petri dishes for fungus to colonize.”

The researchers say the key to protecting optimal forest composition is to recognize the importance of hunting and better manage it.

“These findings highlight an urgent need to manage the sustainability of game hunting in both protected and unprotected tropical forests, and place full biodiversity integrity, including populations of large frugivorous vertebrates, firmly in the agenda of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) programs,” the authors noted in the article.

Other authors on the PNAS article are from the National Institute of Amazonian Research and Fiocruz Amazonia.

The Venezuelan Ambassador in Madrid, Mario Isea Bohórquez, was summoned last Friday by the Director-General for Ibero-America on behalf of Spain’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation to convey the rejection of the statements made by Venezuelan President Maduro on Wednesday, January 20, in which he described the attitude of the Prime Minister of Spain as interventionist, racist and colonial.

​The Director-General for Ibero-America expressed his surprise as these statements, particularly as the Spanish press has published news of the trip to Venezuela, back in December 2014, of Spanish political representatives from CUP, Podemos and family members of prisoners belonging to ETA, in an official aircraft of the Venezuelan Air Force.

The trip took place with the aim of taking part in a seminar given over to the peace process in the Basque Country and the principle of self-determination of the different peoples of Spain, a principle which strongly contradicts those enshrined in the Spanish Constitution.

The Director-General for Ibero-America asked the Venezuelan Ambassador for an explanation of this trip.

Furthermore, the Venezuelan Ambassador was conveyed the concern over the economic situation in Venezuela and Spain’s interest in contributing to alleviate the humanitarian effects of this situation, to which end the Government of Spain is prepared to coordinate humanitarian aid plans with the Venezuelan authorities and the EU.