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Musk Says Can’t Rule Out That UFO Caused Rocket Explosion?

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The statement by the vaunted entrepreneur that he couldn’t rule out that UFO hunters were correct that an unidentified object or weapon initiated the explosion has alien enthusiasts out in full force.

The frenzied excitement for alien hunters hit new heights on Friday when the innovative wunderkind Elon Musk wrote to a commenter on Twitter that “We have not ruled that [a UFO hitting the Space X Falcon 9 rocket] out” with theories ranging from an attack by foreign defense forces to a laser attack by an alien ship quickly cascading through social media.

The statement comes one week after self-proclaimed UFO hunters pointed to video footage from the SpaceX explosion noting that there was a black object barreling near the rocket only seconds before explosion with YouTube viewers quickly dispatching theories that the flying object was a bird or a bug based on the relative speed of the object – over 1,000 MPH – and its appearance behind riggings that ruled out the possibility that it was a bug in the camera lens.

The explosion quickly consumed the rocket destroying Facebook’s AMOS-6 internet-beaming satellite and causing unprecedented damage to the launchpad – a fairly unusual incident for a rocket explosion. Musk said the explosion was “really a fast fire” and was unable to point to specific mechanical causes for the failure of the rocket. One Twitter user said that the sound at 54 seconds in a video posted “sounds like a metal joint popping under stress” which Elon Musk said was “most likely true” but also said that “we can’t yet find it on any vehicle sensors” pointing to the possibility of some outside sabotage. “Important to note that this happened during a routine filling operation. Engines were not on and there was no apparent heat source,” said Musk questioning how the rocket could spontaneously erupt in flames. “Particularly trying to understand the quieter bang sound a few seconds before the fireball goes off. May come from rocket or something else.”

One person suggested that it could be a drone, but opined that if it was a drone it was a particularly fast and circular drone that does not match the description of any known existing defense products. Others opined that whatever the flying vehicle that may have given rise to the explosion, it appears it was a “well planned attack from a competitor.”

Although speculation continues to circle around the explosion of the Space X Falcon 9 rockets with the most fascinating theory by far being the potential that space aliens beamed the rocket, many more plausible alternatives exist including a leak of propellant fuel, metal on metal contact sparking just enough initial flame, or a buildup of oxygen. Some commenters are even blaming Vladimir Putin and/or China – which makes maybe less sense than even space aliens. The truth is out there.


Afghanistan: Two Drone Strikes Kill 85 Militants

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Dozens of insurgents, mostly foreigners, have been killed in the Spera district of southeastern Khost province, authorities claimed on Friday.

Two drone strikes and a commando operation were conducted against insurgents in the restive town last week, Khost police chief Brig. Gen. Faizullah Ghairat told Pajhwok Afghan News.

At least 85 fighters, most of them foreigners, were eliminated during the operations, he said, adding the militants planned to carry out a string of attacks in the district during the Eidul Adha festival.

“Before they could implement their plans, the militants were killed,” the police chief said. “They (terrorists) will never succeed in their nefarious designs. I assure you the district will not fall to them.”

Elaborate security plans had been prepared and no one would be allowed to disturb public order during the Eid, Gen. Ghairat continued. He urged the general public to cooperate with security forces.

“If the people don’t support us, the security forces can’t do much on their own. One reason is that their strength is far from adequate. We can’t set security checkpoints everywhere.”

The police boss called on the militants to lay down their weapons and participate in the reconstruction of their war-torn country.

Meanwhile, Governor Hakam Khan Habibi also urged the rebels to join the reconciliation campaign. War did not offer a solution to problems, the governor argued.

By Mohammad Haroon, original article

The Trumpillary War Machine Is Bad News – OpEd

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I was fortunate enough to view a screening of the new Snowden movie Wednesday evening with some of the whistleblowers who have cameos in it and with its director Oliver Stone. I’m not allowed to review it until Saturday night, but it is a truly great movie and has the potential to be the most widely seen, heard, or read thing of any political decency or truth in the world this year. That’s not, however, why I’m glad I saw it.

I’m glad I watched Snowden because it gave me an extra several hours of living on earth without having yet seen the NBC special on the Trumpillary war machine, in which first Hillary Clinton and then Donald Trump promised NBC they’d wage plenty of wars. Earlier, on Wednesday I had posted this on my Facebook page:

Here are a few of my favorite facts that you will not learn tonight from NBC, Donald Trump, or Hillary Clinton: Nonviolent resistance is more effective than violence and its victories longer lasting. Peaceful spending or even tax cuts for working people is economically superior to military spending. The war on terrorism has increased terrorism, including in the seven nations the United States has bombed this year.

Over half of federal discretionary spending, through multiple departments, is dumped into war preparations each year, about as much as the rest of the world’s nations combined. The US is the top arms dealer to dictatorships abroad, and today’s wars typically have US weapons on both sides.

The US Army can’t figure out what it did with $6.5 trillion this year, while the United Nations says that $30 billion a year could end starvation on earth. Every recent US war has been illegal under the U.N. Charter and the Kellogg Briand Pact. Over 95% of the victims of every recent US war have been on the other side, and the vast majority of them civilian.

The top destroyer of the natural environment is the US military. Routinely bombing Muslim countries, giving war weapons and war training to local police, and expecting non-racist, law-abiding policing cannot work. The US backed a violent coup in Ukraine. Sitting out the National Anthem is not “true patriotism” but a truly courageous challenge to the poison of patriotism.

NBC did not disappoint. Matt Lauer did not ask Trumpillary how much money, even within a quarter trillion dollars or so, they would like spent. He did not ask which wars, if any, they would end or start. He did not ask how many people they would murder with drones. He did not ask if they would kidnap or torture or murder in prisons. He did not ask about foreign aid. He did not ask about leading by example. He did not ask about climate change. He did not ask about the arms trade or the bombing of Yemen. He did not ask about the announcement ISIS had just made of having named a US-trained (and, of course, US-armed) sniper as its Minister of War. He did not ask about the racism and violence permeating US culture. I don’t think any of the three people (Clinton, Trump, Lauer) or any of the veterans asking questions ever said the word “peace.”

Lauer opened by claiming that September 11th launched years of war. In fact, the US government launched years of war.

NBC then showed clips of 9/11 and of Obama announcing the killing of Osama bin Laden, but not a single image of a single body or bombed out house. After 15 years of immoral, illegal, catastrophic murder sprees, Clinton began by taking credit for her “experience” of having been part of making all those wars happen.

So, Lauer asked her, not about any of those wars, but about her emails. Eventually he turned to Iraq, and she claimed to have learned her lesson. Although she still wanted war in Libya and several other countries and still wants it badly in Syria (though Lauer didn’t get into that), so she’s clearly learned nothing. She did claim accurately that Trump backed war on Iraq and Libya too, while still claiming inaccurately that Gaddafi was planning a massacre. Lauer confirmed and corrected nothing.

What if Iran cheats on its nuclear agreement, Lauer wanted to know. Clinton then lied about Iranian hostility, blamed Iran for supporting Syria against US-backed attacks, and “improved” Ronald Reagan’s phrase to “distrust but verify.”

Clinton promised no ground troops in Iraq, but there already are US ground troops in Iraq. Lauer said nothing. Clinton promised to “go after” ISIS leader Baghdadi for the purpose of “focusing our attention.” This is war for propaganda, not just propaganda for war.

Turning to Trump, he opened by claiming that Russian planes and Iranian ships are taunting the United States. Remind me again which coast of the United States the Baltic Sea and the Persian Gulf are on.

Trump then lied that he opposed attacking Iraq. Lauer said . . . (you guessed it) nothing. Trump also, if at odds with that lie, lied that Obama ended the war on Iraq and that so doing was a terrible thing.

Trump claimed, with as straight a face as he can manage, that it was a big success for him that the people who brought him to Mexico have now been thrown out of the government as a result.

A pre-approved veteran asked Trump how “defeating” a terrorist group won’t just produce a new one. Trump talked a while without answering and then said, “Take the Oil.” Steal Iraq’s oil. That was Trump’s answer. If you steal their oil, then they can’t have any power, he suggested. Trump seemed to believe no hostility or resentment would find any leverage after such a theft, that such a theft could be completed quickly, and that he was providing us with new information as “people don’t know this about Iraq” (that it has among the world’s largest reserves of oil).

Lauer asked Trump if he really has a plan to “defeat ISIS.” It was clear he does not.

NBC had a veteran ask how Trump would deescalate tensions with Russia. He answered by claiming Russian airplanes are engaged in hostility against the United States. That ought to do it.

Then Lauer piled on, falsely and baselessly blaming Putin for aggression in Ukraine and interference in the US election, and blaming Russia for supporting Syria and Iran.

Lauer and vets asked Trumpillary about caring for veterans, all taking it as unquestionable that more veterans must be produced through more wars. Trump even said that he’d let immigrants remain in the United States if they would “serve” . . . not his dinner apparently, but his war machine, Hillary’s war machine, NBC’s war machine, Comcast’s war machine, the war machine of people who’ve watched this stuff for 15 years and started to believe it’s the way normal decent human beings should be allowed to behave.

Reprinted with permission from DavidSwanson.org.

Trump’s Russian ‘Charm Offensive’ And US’s China Containment Strategy – OpEd

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Here is one simple yet profound reason why Donald Trump may become the next US’s president: Because with all the appearances of a political novice, the Trump candidacy contains the seeds of a global strategy, aimed first and foremost at China, that his rival, the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton lacks.

Compared to Clinton’s ‘business as usual’ approach that promises to closely follow the footsteps of Obama’s presidency, Trump is a hawkish foreign policy ‘revisionist’ who brings to the forefront a distinct possibility of introducing a real wedge between China and Russia as a result of Trump’s aversion of any Russia-bashing approach.

But, will it work? China and Russia are, after all, pretty close to each other, strategically speaking, united under the umbrella of both BRICS nations as well the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, not to mention their substantial bilateral energy and non-energy trade. Nonetheless, there are reasons to question the depth and scope of their strategic partnership and future outlook of their closeness, partly as a result of US’s counter-strategy.

For the moment, US’s Russian strategy has operated rather successfully. Over the past three to four years, the Russian economy has suffered a great set back due to the combination of Western sanctions and the falling oil prices, which was partly precipitated as a result of a willful “oil conspiracy” by US and Saudi Arabia, targeting Iran and Russia simultaneously.

As a result, Moscow today barely dares to boast like an emerging superpower challenging the existing western-centric capitalist order and, by all accounts, has been shrunk to size, reflected in Putin’s recent interview with CNN’s Farid Zakaria, when he for the first time acknowledged US as the only existing superpower. In other words, enough punishment please.

Still, the powerful combination of Russia’s military might and China’s huge economy pose serious challenge to US’s global hegemony to warrant sustained pressure on Russia, in order to cause a re-orientation, away from China and toward the West. Some of US’s cards on Russia-China are played by regional client states, such as Saudi Arabia, which has now entered into an energy production agreement with Russia. How this will impact Russia’s Middle East policy will be known not too long from now, given the various nuances of Russia’s foreign policy that seeks to balance competing interests, e.g., with respect to Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia.

What is certain, however, is that if Trump wins the elections and then continues with his charm offensive toward Moscow, then Putin may reciprocate — at China’s expense. In turn, this may explain why China could up the ante against the West, e.g., through North Korea and its nuclear sabre rattling. In the Asia-Pacific theater of competition, Russia relatively speaking lacks an intrinsic interest, whereas it is vital for China, which feels the heat of US’s expansionism.

Henceforth, should China lose some of its confidence in geostrategic proximity to Russia, as a result of Trump’s charm offensive, then this will be a big plus for US’s containment strategy vis-a-vis the next global superpower that is bound to challenge US’s hegemony in the decades to come. What Trump may offer Putin, such as lifting the sanctions and coming to terms with Putin’s annexation of Crimea, might be too appeasing to some Americans, particularly the democrats, yet it fits US’s long-term strategy that is geared to splitting the China-Russia duet and luring the latter, which is plagued with economic problems despite a robust military.

Of course, it takes more than a charm offensive to trigger a strategic re-orientation on the part of a big power, which is why Trump’s strategy is like a raw recipe for action that misses several key ingredients before it is shaped as a full course meal. Still, the main outlines of a clever anti-China strategy can be detected in Trump’s candidacy, which is a lot more than can be said about Hillary Clinton.

Europe In Decline As Charismatic Leaders In Short Supply – Analysis

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By Ardeshir Zarei Ghanavati*

Apart from failure of neoliberal agendas, European countries and, basically speaking, the Western civilization is now grappling with three concurrent and totally interrelated problems and the quality of interaction with every one of these problems will have a direct effect on other aspects of this issue as well. These three problems, which include immigration, international terrorism, and strengthening of the radical right parties within the civil society and across the political structure of these societies, have had a great influence on these societies.

As a result, the public sphere has changed and became anarchic, on the one hand, while on the other hand, and in the political sphere, power institutions and parties have been pushed toward adoption of different policies, which have at times been at odds with European democratization, fundamental laws based on respect for human rights, the process of globalization, as well as convergence and cultural integration within this allegedly democratic structure. Since at their roots, these problems have a meaningful correlation with the Western world’s effort to meet its geopolitical interests and its intervention in such critical regions as the Middle East and the Horn of Africa, they have naturally caused spillover of crisis from “colonies” to “metropolises.” The interplay between spillover of the crisis and the aforesaid three problems has created a vicious circle in the Green Continent and it would not be easy for Europe to get out of this cycle.

1. Immigration phenomenon: The movement of human populations from an unfortunate environment to a better-off environment has been a prominent feature of life in human societies and civilizations, which has continued from the time when humans were hunters up to the present time. In past times, this immigration took place with a controllable and managed rhythm and the immigrant population went rather well through the integration cycle in host societies. During that period, immigration not only did not cause acute problems for these host societies, but also led to integration of more experts and politicians and caused more dynamism and balanced growth in those societies.

Despite all shortcomings that are associated with this cycle, which have now become more evident as immigration enters a period of anarchy, past immigrants were always forced under cultural hegemony of the host societies to comply with the existing structures in those societies. However, in recent years and following periodical crises and instability in failed societies and due to the relationship between those issues and West’s hegemonic interference in other countries, a different form of instability has come to the surface. On the other hand, since instability has been escalating in African and Middle Eastern societies, the burgeoning population of immigrants has greatly exceeded the host countries’ capacity to control immigration and this has caused changes in demographic composition of the Western societies. Since these immigrants mostly come from crisis-hit societies and have experienced wartime conditions and have been forced to change their abode under unnatural and compulsory circumstances, they inevitably take part of their problems and their legacy of violence to host societies.

2. International terrorism: At no juncture of its history like today the world has had to deal with a problem in the form of international terrorism, which is characterized by ease of its spread from crisis-hit environments to more secure places. The spread of the phenomenon, which is known as radical Islamist terrorism, to European societies, especially to those countries and societies, which have had a more open form of democracy, has currently faced these societies with a horrendous monster, which nobody is immune to its harm.

The new form of terrorism feeds on the intercivilizational violence and for this reason, it is bound by no human rules and regulations in setting goals and taking actions. Since the new phenomenon of jihadist terrorism focuses on the use of the weakest links in the political and social structure of these societies and considers infliction of mass casualties as a sign of its success in spreading terror, it naturally considers streets, gathering halls, human assemblies and, in general, attacking the greatest number of people who enjoy the least security protection as its ideal goals.

3. Strengthening of radical right tendencies: As European societies are flooded by migrants from eastern countries and as terrorist actions spread through those societies, the best ground has been provided for the growth and strengthening of anti-immigration and radical right tendencies. Since the end of 30-year wars in Europe and after two world wars, which were outcome of the accumulation of power and the powerful countries’ need to find new colonialist spheres of influence and new markets, Europe has never been faced with such a sweeping wave of racism as it is today. The fall of social democrat and center-right parties in Europe under present circumstances, when these intellectual currents cannot offer any way out of the crises that are nagging their societies, will inevitably provide a good ground for growth of the radical right and left tendencies.

However, since the problems that Europe is currently facing as a result of terrorism and immigration serve the goals of the radical right groups and justify their slogans, at present, unfortunately, only radical right groups can be considered unrivaled winners in this borderless continent. The biggest mistake committed by the European Union, which was the result of neoliberal goals and interests that govern this ailing structure, was that all European institutions focused on suppressing radical left tendencies, especially in countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal, Cyprus and other weaker societies of the European Union.

As a result, powerful EU institutions and countries like Germany practically dashed any hope that European masses had for any modification and revision of failed neoliberal policies of the European Union. Under these conditions, when a large part of the European people was angry with these policies, the radical right groups ran their roots deep by taking advantage of such tangible issues as the purported threat of immigrants flooding Europe and the fear of Islamist terrorism, which overshadows social life in Europe. At present, they are moving step by step to conquer all powerful institutions across European countries.

The rapid rise of the European public opinion in support of the radical right parties in France, Germany, Italy, Britain, Austria, the Netherlands, Sweden, Hungary, Denmark and Norway is an alarm bell whose thunderous chime will be no less menacing than terrorists’ bombs and the flood of immigrants. The fall of the moral credit of center-right and social democrat European parties into the abyss of fighting immigrants and promoting Islamophobia is a telltale sign of a regrettable situation, which is now the case with regard to many European countries. This is especially true about a country like France where even the socialist Prime Minister Manuel Valls has trampled on all the country’s principles and laws as well as his party’s principles by highlighting the dispute about the burkini, which is put on by Muslim women. Instead of finding root causes of problems and coming up with correct solutions to those problems, what Europe is currently doing is to waste time and this is exactly what terrorists and radical right parties want.

*Ardeshir Zarei Ghanavati
Expert on International Relations & Foreign Policy

Source: Shargh Daily
http://www.sharghdaily.ir/
Translated By: Iran Review.Org

Study Examines Cancer Rates Among World Trade Center–Exposed Firefighters

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Researchers found no overall increase in cancer risk among World Trade Center (WTC)–exposed firefighters following the 9/11 attacks compared with other firefighters from several US cities.

They noted a nearly 4-fold increase in the rate in thyroid cancer, but this increased risk was not significant after controlling for possible biases related to cancer screening. (WTC-exposed firefighters have access to health care and routine health monitoring exams even after retirement.)

The investigators also found a 1.4-fold increase in the rate in prostate cancer in 2005 to 2009 among WTC-exposed firefighters compared with other urban firefighters.

The American Journal of Industrial Medicine findings come from the same group of researchers who previously discovered an elevated cancer risk in WTC-exposed firefighters compared with the general population.

Calculating Role Of Lakes In Global Warming

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As global temperatures rise, how will lake ecosystems respond? As they warm, will lakes — which make up only 3 percent of the landscape, but bury more carbon than the world’s oceans combined — release more of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane? And might that create a feedback loop that leads to further warming?

To predict the effects of rising air temperatures on the carbon cycle of lakes, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute researchers will link computer models of changing weather, water temperature, and emissions of carbon dioxide and methane for 2,000 lakes across the United States, including Lake George, through 2105. The project is supported with a $300,000 grant from the National Science Foundation, and led by Kevin Rose, an assistant professor in the Department of Biological Sciences at Rensselaer and the Frederic R. Kolleck ’52 Career Development Chair in Freshwater Ecology.

“We know lakes are important in the global carbon cycle — absorbing and emitting carbon- – and that’s critical to regulating global air temperatures. But we don’t know how the role of lakes will change as a result of rising air temperatures,” said Rose. “Right now, we can model changes for an individual lake — using characteristics like surface area, depth, water clarity, and temperature profile — but to be useful as a planning and research tool, we need to work on a much larger scale.”

Carbon enters a lake as organic matter (such as falling leaves or soil suspended in runoff) and is cycled through the food chain, feeding plants and then animals. Some carbon settles to the lake bottom and is buried in sediment, but some is released back into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide and methane. As with all biological processes, lake emissions are temperature dependent, rising and falling along a temperature gradient. The challenge in predicting lake emissions for thousands of lakes across the country lies in the enormous variety of characteristics from lake to lake.

To tackle that challenge, the project will forecast future weather conditions for 2,000 lakes over the next 90 years using high-resolution weather forecasting models and projections of climate change provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

In the second phase of the project, the team will draw upon the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Lakes Assessment, a statistical survey that tracks chemical, biological, and physical characteristics of the target lakes. By feeding those characteristics and the forecasted weather data into an existing open source hydrodynamic model, the team will generate predicted changes in lake thermal characteristics such as the temperature profile (mapping temperature according to depth), depth of temperature stratification, and ice cover.

The team is able to calibrate and validate the model by running the model back through time, as far back as 1979, and comparing their results with recorded weather and lake temperature data available from the North American Land Data Assimilation System and the EPA National Lakes Assessment.

The team will then use the resulting lake temperature data to estimate changes in lake metabolism — the absorption versus emission of carbon–and seek to draw conclusions based on those estimates, such as differences based on region or specific characteristics of lakes.

“The goal is to close the loop between long-term changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, leading to global temperature increases, leading to changes in lake water temperature, leading to changes in the role of lakes in the global carbon cycle,” Rose said. “In other words, how much carbon dioxide is going to come out of lakes with more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere — is there going to be positive feedback?”

Rose’s research fulfills the vision of The New Polytechnic, an emerging paradigm for higher education which recognizes that global challenges and opportunities are so great they cannot be adequately addressed by even the most talented person working alone. Rensselaer serves as a crossroads for collaboration–working with partners across disciplines, sectors, and geographic regions — to address complex global challenges, using the most advanced tools and technologies, many of which are developed at Rensselaer. Research at Rensselaer addresses some of the world’s most pressing technological challenges — from energy security and sustainable development to biotechnology and human health. The New Polytechnic is transformative in the global impact of research, in its innovative pedagogy, and in the lives of students at Rensselaer.

How Response To 9/11 Affected Christians In Middle East

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By Matt Hadro

On the 15th anniversary of the World Trade Center terror attacks, we shouldn’t overlook how Middle Eastern Christians have suffered from the unintended consequences of U.S. post-9/11 foreign policy, says one expert.

“The U.S. Catholic bishops, in their statement after the Sept.11 attacks, made it clear that the response has to be a response that brings more peace for all, not just greater security for U.S. citizens,” said Maryann Cusimano Love, an international relations professor at the Catholic University of America.

U.S. Catholics must see themselves as part of “a global Church, and that as followers of Christ, the Prince of Peace, He came to bring peace for all, not for a narrow band,” she told CNA.

Sunday marks the 15th anniversary of the Sept. 11 terror attacks, when 19 men affiliated with the terror group Al-Qaeda hijacked four commercial flights and directed three of the airplanes straight into the two World Trade Center buildings in Manhattan and the Pentagon in Washington, D.C.

The fourth hijacked flight crashed near Somerset, Pa. and was reportedly headed for the U.S. Capitol building. Almost 3,000 perished in the attacks.

In response, the U.S. began the “War on Terror” shortly after with the invasion of Afghanistan to defeat the Talibanin 2001, and then the War in Iraq in March, 2003.

At the time of the Sept. 11 attacks that were motivated in part by religious extremism, the U.S. was not able to properly grapple with the role of religion in international affairs, Love explained. Since then it has struggled to engage with religious actors in the right way.

“The U.S. government was pretty much blind in being able to deal with religious actors or religious factors in foreign policy,” she said of the time of the attacks.

“Our foreign policy organizations were primarily built to fight the Cold War. And in a fight against ‘godless Communists’,” she added, “you really didn’t need to understand religion that much.”

After the attacks, U.S. foreign policy swung to the opposite extreme to viewing religious actors “only as a problem” and a “source of conflict,” she added.

Thus, “it’s really taken a long time,” she said, to help those crafting U.S. foreign policy “to understand that religious actors can be a positive force in international politics for peace, for prosperity, for development, and not only or merely a source of conflict.”

Middle Eastern Christians and other religious minorities have also suffered greatly from the unintended consequences of U.S. post-9/11 foreign policy, despite the ultimately-prophetic warnings from Catholic leaders, including Pope St. John Paul II, against the War in Iraq, Love explained.

“Christians in the Middle East are in a fight for their lives,” she said, and “in a large part the U.S. response to the Sept. 11 attacks certainly played a role in that.”

With the war beginning in 2003, attacks on Iraqi Christian communities increased and Christians left the country. While over 1.5 million Christians lived in Iraq in 2003, there are fewer than 500,000 now.

Also, militant groups like al-Qaeda in Iraq and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria – which did not exist at the time of the U.S. invasion – came into Iraq, Love noted.

“One thing many Iraqi Christians will tell you, they had no love for Saddam Hussein, but they all point to that as a golden age, that their lives were so much better under that regime than they are now,” she said. “They said then we had one brutal dictator to worry about; now we have many. And the sources of instability are much larger, much wider. And they’re under threat from many more corridors.”

Moving forward, U.S. policy must take all religious actors – the good as well as the bad – into account, Love insisted.

“The U.S. foreign policy has always been created around governments, countries, states,” she said. “Yet that form is really recent. Most countries in the world today are between 25 and 50 years old.” And the services many countries boast of having – education and health care, for example – have been provided by religious actors for millennia.

And the positive stories of religious leaders must be highlighted, she said, in countries like Columbia, the Philippines, and Central African Republic where they are “risking their lives” to promote peace.

The U.S. must also remember that the universality of the Catholic faith, where members of every country and continent are Christian, as opposed to other faiths that are more geographically concentrated.

“That’s still the growing edge for U.S. foreign policy, to understand the depth and the breadth that religious actors bring to these issues and the positive contributions they can bring,” Love said.


Will Modi’s Approach Bring Peace To Kashmir? – OpEd

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For the last seventy years, Kashmir has been seeing agitations and unrest by a section of people who have failed to distinguish between religion and state. Such agitations could only cause fritters, with agitators not succeeding in their efforts to separate Kashmir from India or merge Kashmir with Pakistan. Obviously, this scenario highlights the ground reality that the vast majority of people in Kashmir are not participants in such agitations but remain as silent and helpless majority.

Past governments of India have been trying to handle the turbulent conditions in Kashmir with stick and carrot approach but have not been successful in effectively silencing the separatists and isolating them.

Similar to the incidents in the past few days, Kashmir has witnessed prolonged agitations for many days several times in the past ,which ultimately ended on it’s own after exhausting the steam. In the same way, the present unrest conditions will also quieten down sooner or later and perhaps, sooner than later.

Obviously, the separatists in Kashmir get support and encouragement from across the border and from other sources to sustain their agitations and such external forces who are motivated by the thinking that Kashmir should be a muslim country since it has majority of Muslims in Kashmir population. The recent jihadi threats and activities of ISIS extremists across the world seem to be giving fresh hopes to the separatists in Kashmir and their friends abroad.

What could be Mr. Modi’s strategy?

Mr. Modi has to find a solution for the Kashmir tangle once for all by working out some short term and long term strategies and plans, in tune with the ground realities in Kashmir and aspirations of the people.

No government in any country can allow a situation where separatists who want to split the country hold sway, which mean effectively uprooting the solidarity and sovereignty of the state. Therefore, there would be no question of Modi government submitting to the threats and demands of the separatists.

Obviously, one of the strategies of Modi government is to have leadership of the provincial government in Kashmir that take strong stand against the separatists and pledges itself to the integrity of India. The present democratically elected Chief Minister of Kashmir has taken a strong stand against separatists, conveying effectively the message to the world that the separatists in Kashmir do not represent the will of the people and have ulterior motives that would not serve the interests of the Kashmir people.

The Modi government is trying to convince the people of Kashmir that it is fair in it’s approach by expressing it’s willingness to speak to the separatists who are Indians and perhaps, misguided ones. This approach of willingness to sit across the table with separatists for discussions will go a long way in building a proactive climate in Kashmir towards peace and stability and strengthen the credibility of Modi government about it’s efforts to bring peace and harmony in the state.

No separatist forces in any country can thrive without being backed with funds and arms by external elements. The flow of funds and arms to the separatists have to be stopped and obviously ,Modi government is not fully successful in doing this so far.

The recent speech of Mr. Modi in the G20 conference in China and ASEAN East Asia summit in Laos clearly indicate that Mr. Modi wants the world to understand that the present violence in Kashmir is in the same pattern as terrorist attacks elsewhere in the world, which are launched by religion based extremists. He appears to have already succeeded in creating such an impression.

If and when the world will view that separatists in Kashmir who indulge in violence are part of the world terrorist activities, it will pave way for weakening the violence prone separatists in Kashmir and isolate them amongs the people.

The youth of Kashmir need to be given hope that their aspirations for social and economic progress can be met by policy and support measures of Modi government. Separate package of schemes are likely to be launched to provide educational and skill acquisition opportunities and job prospects for youth in Kashmir in other parts of India. This will inevitably lead to greater integration of Kashmir with the rest of the country and perhaps, even migration may be encouraged to some extent.

Proactive integrated strategies will improve the conditions

Such proactive integrated strategies of Mr. Modi have the potential to bring about a change for better in the Kashmir situation.

This process appears to have started already and is likely to move on with steady and gradual implementation of the strategies.

9/11 – Fifteen Years Later – OpEd

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This Sunday the USA observes the 15th anniversary of 9/11. The attacks on the soil of the USA was committed not by a hostile state but reportedly by non-state Muslim zealots that were affiliated with OBL’s al-Qaeda. Nearly 3000 individuals of all faiths died in the attacks.

Since the militant group was based in Afghanistan the mineral rich country was attacked on October 7, 2011 as a retaliation by President George W. Bush. The Taliban regime of Mullah Omar was soon toppled with massive bombing campaigns from the joint Anglo-American forces. Nearly a quarter million innocent Afghan civilians who had no connection with 9/11 were pulverized in the USA-led barbarity.

Next, Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, which had no connection with 9/11, was invaded. President Bush gave a new meaning to the word savagery. Truly, never before had humanity seen so much brutality and plundering, especially in the post-World War II era by a government that touted itself as the model of greatness. Probably, a million Iraqi civilians were butchered by Bush and his forces. [Note: Some reliable estimates like the Opinion Research Business (ORB) poll conducted 12–19 August 2007 estimated 1,033,000 violent deaths due to the Iraq War. The range given was 946,000 to 1,120,000 deaths.] The Ba’athist regime in Iraq (like the Taliban in Afghanistan) was replaced by a puppet government.

Saddam Hussein was hanged in Iraq. OBL was killed in May 2011 in a raid inside Pakistan. And Mullah Omar reportedly died a natural death inside Afghanistan. Hostile regimes were replaced by friendlier ones to the USA but the elusive peace and security, let alone democracy, never set in. And as it appears, such goals were not even planned or intended by the US-led invaders. Out of all the chaos which have set in, deadlier foes than al Qaeda have emerged posing greater threat to the security not only to the entire region but even to the West.

A resurgent Taliban continues to challenge the authority of the elected government in Afghanistan where the latter controls more than half the territory (and that so only during the daytime); a quarter of Afghanistan remains a contested territory. A small contingent of American forces continue to provide air support and train Afghan government forces.

Inside Iraq and Syria, with its successful terrorist attacks and the capacity to hold on to conquered territories, Daesh has emerged as a challenge not only to the current governments in those two countries, but to all people – Muslims and non-Muslims alike.

The Arab spring blossomed and withered; the desire for a people’s participatory democracy has been ruthlessly subdued in all but Tunisia. Thousands of political dissidents have been executed while another tens of thousands continue to rot in Sisi’s neo-Pharaonic Egypt. Tens of thousands of unarmed civilians have been murdered in US drone attacks in places like Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia.

Back here in the USA, the political news about the coming presidential election dominates the headlines. In spite of all of the talk about 9/11, many elements of the attacks and the actions leading up to them have receded from the public memory. Remarkably, fifteen years of investigation have failed to determine how the hijackers were able to get into the cockpits of the four commercial airliners. Conspiracy theories continue to remain a vibrant source of information about the attack for many internet-surfers.

When the 9/11 report was released by the US government in 2004, 28 pages of material remained classified and the subject of intense speculation about their contents. Those pages, which were released in July, showed multiple links to associates of Saudi Arabian Prince Bandar bin Sultan, ex-ambassador to the United States. The documents, as USA TODAY reported in July, “Show possible conduits of money from the Saudi royal family to Saudis living in the United States and two of the hijackers in San Diego.” The pages were not released, because the details contained in them had not been confirmed or shown to be relevant to the 9/11 attacks. Fifteen of the 19 hijackers were from Saudi Arabia.

To embarrass now the Obama Administration in the election year, the U.S. House of Representatives has unanimously passed the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA). The bill passed by unanimous voice vote, as it did in the Senate back in May.

The bill allows families of victims of the 9/11 attack to sue Saudi Arabia in US courts over the attack, based on evidence that the Saudi government played a role in supporting al-Qaeda in the lead-up to the attack. President Obama repeatedly vowed to the veto the bill if it got through Congress, claiming “taxpayers” are at risk.

It is likely that Saudi Arabia will retaliate any such court verdicts. As far back as April, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir threatened to deliberately collapse the US treasury market in retaliation for the bill by selling some $750 billion in Saudi-held assets on the market. Jubeir’s initial threat was followed almost immediately by a chorus of officials coming out against the bill.

Unanimous yes votes in both houses of Congress, however, put President Obama in a tricky situation, as he faces what could easily be the first successful veto override of his presidency. Though it is believed some Democrats won’t challenge the president, and will thus switch sides on the veto override vote, there are strong indications that there may still be enough left to override the veto.

It remains to be seen if the Saudi government follows through with threats to the US Treasury market. As noted by experts, the market has already been absorbing steady sales out of eastern Asia, particularly from China, and would likely be unable to absorb another $750 billion debt dump.

Fifteen years later, the USA remains a highly divided nation with no peace and security at home – especially, for many Afro-Americans and most religious minorities. In the last few weeks alone, 3 Bangladeshis got killed in New York City alone, which can only be described as hate crimes. With Donald Trump as a presidential candidate for the Republican Party, fascism seems to be making serious inroads within the American political landscape – further eroding the already weakened cohesion within the society and making many jittery or nervous.

It’s a nervous time for many Muslims who were apprehensive about the reaction of racist and bigot Americans should this year’s Eid-il-Adha had fallen on Sunday, September 11. [Fortunately for them, it fell on Monday, September 12.] But even then, don’t be surprised if somewhere in this so-called land of the free, some minorities would face harassment for wearing hijab or ethnic dress, or for just looking like a Muslim. That is a sad commentary that is close to the reality in today’s America!

With the specter of violence everywhere, our world seems a more dangerous place today than it was 15 years ago. Bush’s Global War on Terror (piggy-backed by Obama) has unleashed the real beast free making life worthless. While the mass murdering war-lords and -criminals remain secure and protected, most of today’s victims don’t know why they are getting killed. And regrettably, the UN remains ineffectual to curb such victimization of the innocent people.

That sums up the saga of our time!

September 11, 2016 – Remembering 9/11: Are We Any Safer Today? – Analysis

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The world remains vulnerable to major terror attacks because intelligence agencies continue to withhold information from legitimate users. Why is this is so and what can be done to promote informational exchanges?

By Tan Teck Boon and Kumar Ramakrishna*

Is the world safer from terrorism on the 15th anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks on New York and Washington DC? If the intelligence lapses that led to 9/11 remain in place, then the world at present cannot be safer from major terror attacks than it was 15 years ago. Today, it is a matter of public record that clues pointing to 9/11 were in the possession of select US intelligence agencies. However, they were withheld from other relevant agencies.

In late December 1999, while monitoring an al-Qaeda phone number in Sana’a, Yemen, the National Security Agency (NSA) – America’s leading signals intelligence agency – intercepted a phone conversation instructing two 9/11 hijackers, Nawaf al-Hazmi and Khalid al-Mihdhar, to travel to Kuala Lumpur for a meeting with other known terror suspects. That meeting, we now know, set in motion plans for the 9/11 attacks.

Hazy Road to 9/11

Acting on the NSA’s tip off, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) – America’s foreign intelligence agency – placed al-Hazmi and al-Mihdhar under surveillance as the two travelled to Malaysia. During al-Mihdhar’s stopover in Dubai, the CIA managed to make a photocopy of al-Mihdhar’s passport and when CIA officers examined it, they were stunned that al-Mihdhar held a valid multiple-entry visa to the United States. Still, the CIA did not alert the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) – the US agency responsible for protecting the US homeland from terror attacks.

Al-Hazmi and al-Mihdhar eluded surveillance in Kuala Lumpur and from Bangkok, they boarded a flight for Los Angeles. On 15 January 2000, they arrived at their destination and passed through US customs undetected. The two made no attempt to hide their presence in the US, obtaining driver’s licences in their own names and even used a local bank to receive funds from a known al-Qaeda financier. Al-Hazmi’s name was also listed in the California phone book and several calls were made from al-Hazmi’s phone in California to the al-Qaeda phone in Yemen.

At that point, the NSA must have known that there were al-Qaeda operatives in the US. But it too did not alert the FBI. Even after the NSA and CIA had enough information in late 2000 linking al-Hazmi and al-Mihdhar to Osama bin Laden, al-Qaeda, the US embassy bombings in Africa and the attack on the USS Cole, they still did not make it known to the FBI that al-Qaeda operatives could already be in the US.

Only in late August 2001 did the CIA alert the FBI but by then, it was too late. The al-Qaeda plan involving Nawaf al-Hazmi and Khalid al-Mihdhar (as well as the other 9/11 hijackers) had proceeded too far along for any last-minute FBI investigation to thwart. Both men would hijack Flight 77 and crash it into the Pentagon on September 11, 2001.

Barriers to Intelligence Sharing

While there were certainly other lapses, the failure to share information between US intelligence agencies is considered a central cause of 9/11. The NSA and CIA had received information indicating the presence of al-Qaeda operatives in the US but did not share what they knew with the FBI. Though the information was fragmentary, it would almost certainly have set off alarms.

Today, this problem continues to plague intelligence agencies around the world. There are many reasons why intelligence agencies withhold information but three major ones are worth mentioning.

Firstly, even friendly intelligence agencies feud and when these spats are left to fester, they can eventually poison the atmosphere for cooperation. Needless to say, intelligence officers are less inclined to share information when they are at loggerheads. Why did the CIA withhold information on al-Hazmi and al-Mihdhar from FBI? Because incessant CIA-FBI feuding had poisoned inter-agency relations to the point where they simply stopped talking.

Secondly, intelligence agencies are by nature secretive and calls for these hermetic organisations to share information are fundamentally at odds with their institutional DNA. The problem is that secrecy is a double-edged sword; it can protect sensitive secrets like sources and methods from being exposed (rendering them worthless) but it can also become counter-productive when intelligence agencies bottle up information and 9/11 is an excellent case in point.

Thirdly, intelligence agencies have a tendency to withhold information from legitimate users when sharing information does not serve their interests. If the FBI had been tipped off to the presence of al-Hazmi and al-Mihdhar in the US, it might swiftly have arrested them. However, such premature arrests might not have made sense to the CIA since it could collect more intelligence on al-Qaeda by placing al-Hazmi and al-Mihdhar under surveillance. While there is no solid evidence to suggest that this was the factor that prompted CIA to withhold information from the FBI, this problem is very real in the cloak and dagger world.

Intelligence Sharing the Key

Good intelligence – not military might – is the first line of defence against terrorism. Unlike conventional armies, terrorists do not wear uniforms and drive fancy tanks. They hide among civilians, use whatever is available to them as weapons and strike when and where they are least expected. So information on their identities, whereabouts and modus operandi is the key to defeating them.

By sharing information, intelligence agencies increase their chances of fusing fragmentary clues into a coherent picture of imminent terror attacks. It also reduces the risk of vital information being withheld from legitimate users. In short, intelligence sharing is fundamental to keeping us safe in this age where terrorism is the “New Normal”. How that might be accomplished is more difficult to answer.

As a response to 9/11, the US created an entirely new organisation – the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) – to break down the barriers that hampered informational exchanges between its many intelligence agencies. Evidence thus far suggests that the ODNI is making some headways.

Nevertheless, as demonstrated by recent lone wolf attacks in the US and Europe inspired by the so-called Islamic State (IS), multilateral intelligence sharing remains a work in progress. Given their resourcefulness, it is only a matter of time before terrorists notice that too – if they haven’t already.

*Tan Teck Boon PhD is a Research Fellow with the National Security Studies Programme (NSSP) and Kumar Ramakrishna is an Associate Professor, Head of Policy Studies and Coordinator of NSSP in the Office of the Executive Deputy Chairman, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

China’s Non-Peaceful Rise Already In Play? – Analysis

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China may view a divisive US election as an opportunity to control contested features in the South China Sea.

By Harry J. Kazianis*

The People’s Republic of China is headed on a tragic trajectory that should be familiar to anyone with even cursory exposure to history. Due to a complex composition of factors – a century of torment at the hands of western powers and Japan as well as a toxic brew of nationalism – the PRC is not content with its place as the world’s second largest economy, or even largest when using purchasing-parity power, or PPP, as the benchmark. Nor is China happy with its standing as the planet’s second largest military armed with advanced weapons like “carrier-killer” missiles, a budding hypersonic weapons program and other top-tier offensive platforms. Beijing doesn’t even seem to regard its undertaking of major initiatives like the “One Belt, One Road” project and the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank as signs of its rise to global superpower stature.

No, Beijing wants more, and could soon seek to transform the status-quo in Asia, especially in the South China Sea, in its favor. Indeed, recent reports suggest that Beijing’s surge for hegemony might be around the corner, as its leaders take advantage of a window of opportunity during the final weeks of the US presidential election as America’s gaze turns inward.

Many Asia specialists argued that China would boldly push forward in some aggressive manner after losing in the Hague to the Philippines over Manila’s challenge of Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea. However, China has bided its time, despite some reckless statements, provocative photo-ops including “bomber selfies” over the area and a Global Times July editorial that called Australia a “paper cat,” threatening “If Australia steps into the South China Sea waters, it will be an ideal target for China to warn and strike.”

Indeed, any rising great power embracing the most basic elements of strategy must pick the most opportune time to seize an initiative, something not lost on Chinese military strategists and senior Communist Party officials. Any escalatory move after the Hague ruling would have been a strategic mistake. Beijing had committed to host the G20 summit slated to start seven weeks after the ruling, and the United States would soon be largely sidelined thanks to one of the most divisive presidential elections in its history. China, by waiting just a few weeks, would be in the best position in years to undertake any number of bold actions in South China Sea, ensuring its dominance over what it refers to as its own sovereign territory.

Senior officials at the Pentagon and a top diplomat representing an ASEAN nation in Washington have confided that Asia experts anticipate a Chinese move in the South China Sea that could escalate tensions, due to the circumstances and timing.

“If China is going to strike in the South China Sea, mid-September right until the November presidential election could not be a better time,” explained a senior US Department of Defense official who agreed to be interviewed if not identified. Or, put a different way by another US defense official, again speaking on background, explained: “Beijing’s best window to take advantage of certain trend lines and cement its claims in the South China Sea is right after the G20. American newspapers won’t give front-page status to a China story during the heart of the election, well, unless they start shooting, and they won’t be that stupid. For Beijing, the timing is perfect.”

Such analysis is not limited to American military circles, and a senior ASEAN nation diplomat holds almost an identical view. “China is ready to cast off any illusions of a peaceful rise. Having worked with Chinese diplomats in Asia and here in Washington for decades now, Beijing seems ready to remove any hidden aspirations of what it really wants: to dominate the South China Sea.” President Obama has warned “there will be consequences,” but the senior diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, continued: “China seems poised to make a serious move to solidify its hold on the South China Sea after the G20. Why wouldn’t it? America is obsessed with its elections. And if [US President Barack] Obama would not even enforce a ‘red line’ when Assad was killing his own people with chemical weapons, ASEAN nations know he won’t come to our aid over some rocks – as many in the media will surely spin in – when his time in office is almost up.”

Beginning the morning of September 3, global media began quoting extensively from a piece in The New York Times indicating Beijing massed vessels around Scarborough Shoal, claimed by China, the Philippines and Taiwan each. The controversial move is one of a long stream of Chinese aggressions in recent years. Reports indicated that troop ships as well as barges – which could be utilized for dredging, the first steps in turning rocks into islands and islands into military bases, a play China has utilized in the past in the South China Sea – were less than 2 kilometers from the shoal.

Making matters worse, and handing China even greater incentive to begin reclamation efforts, was what can be best described as an untimely comment by Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, who threatened to insult President Obama during a proposed meeting at the East Asia Summit if he raised human rights issues. With Washington and Manila at odds, Duterte gave Beijing a golden opportunity to push forward, cementing its grasp on Scarborough.

While relations between the United States and the Philippines, at least in the short term, are strained, Manila has every incentive to work with Washington to ensure that Beijing does not begin reclamation work at Scarborough Shoal. As a first step towards such an effort, in a move to attempt to deter and prevent Chinese action, President Obama should voice his opposition, in no uncertain terms, that any attempt to seize Scarborough would constitute a challenge to the peace and stability of Asia and would force Washington to rethink many areas of cooperation with Beijing. These could include future participation in RIMPAC and a pause in bilateral investment treaty negotiations.

At the same time, the trend lines in the South China Sea suggest that China can increase its military might in the region dramatically for months and years to come thanks to its new island bases. The United States must actively begin crafting a strategy for if Beijing does move forward on reclamation with the goal of negating China’s growing military muscle. Options could include rotational or permanent US naval assets, especially attack submarines, in Cam Ranh Bay in Vietnam and a permanent naval presence, including an aircraft carrier battle group, once again in the former US naval base at Subic Bay in the Philippines, about 200 kilometers east from Scarborough Shoal. No matter what plan of action is adopted, the goal must be to reinforce America’s critical alliances and strategic partnerships as well as ensure that the South China Sea will remain a part of the global commons – a body of water all nations have the sacred right to utilize.

*Harry J. Kazianis serves as the new director of Defense Studies at the Center for the National Interest, formerly the Nixon Center. He is the author of  The Tao of A2/AD: China’s Rationale for the Creation of Anti-Access and editor and co-author of the report Tackling Asia’s Greatest Challenges: A U.S.-Japan-Vietnam Trilateral Report.

Clinton’s Perceived Statistical Error In Characterizing Trump Supporters – OpEd

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Ta-Nehisis Coates writes: [On Friday], Hillary Clinton claimed that roughly “half of Trump’s supporters” could be characterized as either “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic — you name it.” Clinton hedged by saying she was being “grossly generalistic” but given that no one appreciates being labeled a bigot, that statement still feels harsh –– or if you prefer, “politically incorrect.”

Clinton later said that she was “wrong” to say “half,” but reiterated that “it’s deplorable that Donald Trump has built his campaign largely on prejudice and paranoia.”

One way of reporting on Clinton’s statement is to weigh its political cost, ask what it means for her campaign, or attempt to predict how it might affect her performance among certain groups. This path is in line with the current imperatives of political reporting and, at least for the moment, seems to be the direction of coverage. But there is another line of reporting that could be pursued — Was Hillary Clinton being truthful or not? [Continue reading…]

Clinton added, “Now, some of those folks — they are irredeemable, but thankfully they are not America.” Her implication seems to be that however irredeemable a proportion of Trump supporters might be, they are insufficient in number or influence to affect how we define America.

America can supposedly accommodate an indeterminate number of people who are racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, or Islamaphobic, and somehow retain its exalted character.

American elections and the way the media covers them, focus so much on the individual personalities of would-be political representatives, that it’s easy to avoid seeing in these democratic processes an opportunity for assessing the condition of American culture.

While Donald Trump can be criticized for having empowered one of the dark sides of America, there’s little reason to believe that the ugly face he has revealed has grown in size due to his candidacy. It has certainly grown in strength because Trump has created a permissive environment for expressions of bigotry. And that environment is certainly dangerous in terms of what it already has unleashed. But had he not run and had an alternative Republican nominee not tapped into the same currents, the fact that they might now not be so visible would be no reason to treat them as less representative of America.

Although Trump supporters like him because they regard his lack of political correctness as a form of candor, one of the many ironies of this election is that he and they are generally just as obedient as anyone else in compliance with many forms of political correctness.

Hillary Clinton’s offense in labeling half of Trump’s supporters as racists of one kind or another derives from the fact that virtually no one disputes that these are derogatory terms. Racism in America is almost universally disavowed. But the fact that nowadays so few people will tolerate being called racist seems to have not as much diminished racism than it has driven it underground. Even overt white supremacists practice their own form of political correctness by characterizing their cause as involving the conservation of what they regard as their endangered “heritage.”

An argument about how a political constituency is getting labeled serves mostly as a distraction from the core issue here: is American society capable of becoming more inclusive? Or is this a society already fractured by so many embattled and conflicting identities that its capacity to come together is severely impaired by a lack of durable social glue?

What does it mean to be an American? should not be a question asked so that politicians can compete in making cliched declarations about America’s greatness. Instead, it should be treated as the first step in arriving at a sound diagnosis of this nation both in terms of its actual strengths and weaknesses.

Islamic State Hopes To Conquer Crimea And Western Ukraine By 2025 – OpEd

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ISIS has designated Crimea and Western Ukraine as territories it considers part of its sphere of influence and as ones that it intends to conquer before 2025, Aleksandr Korenkov says. But the difficulties ISIS now faces in Syria and Ukraine’s low profile among its fighters suggest that Ukraine is at least not yet a priority of Islamic State militants.

Korenkov, an expert of the Kyiv Center for the Study of Rebel Movements, tells the Apostrophe portal that for the moment, Ukraine is “not among the priorities of ISIS activists because [Ukrainians] are not fighting in Syria.” But officials should not lessen their efforts to combat the arrival of ISIS operatives (apostrophe.ua/article/society/2016-09-10/do-2025-goda-igil-hochet-zavoevat-kryim-i-zapadnuyu-ukrainu/7218).

Ukrainian security services have identified ISIS fighters in Kharkhiv, Kyiv and other cities, the specialist says; but their task is made difficult by the fact that typically at least in European countries, ISIS adherents do not identify themselves as such until after they carry out a terrorist attack.

Korenkov says there is no agreement as to how many Ukrainians have gone to fight for ISIS; but that may matter less than the fact that since 2014, Ukraine has been a member of the global coalition for the fight against ISIS and is known to be such.

Asked about reports that ISIS is “a project of Russia and of Putin personally,” the Ukrainian expert says that “there is no direct evidence for this,” although there are a large number of Russian citizens in the ranks of ISIS. He says there may be as many as 2500 of them, making Russia one of the top three contributors to its ranks.

Asked whether ISIS terrorism in Ukraine was likely, Korenkov says that “theoretically it is possible” given Ukraine’s position on ISIS. And he notes that “in its materials, ISIS lists Ukraine among the enemies of the Islamic state.” But “for the time being,” Ukraine isn’t a priority, especially given the problems ISIS faces in Syria and Iraq.

Future Fisheries Can Expect $10 Billion Revenue Loss Due To Climate Change

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Global fisheries stand to lose approximately $10 billion of their annual revenue by 2050 if climate change continues unchecked, and countries that are most dependent on fisheries for food will be the hardest hit, finds new UBC research.

Climate change impacts such as rising temperatures and changes in ocean salinity, acidity and oxygen levels are expected to result in decreased catches, as previous research from UBC’s Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries has found. In this study, the authors examined the financial impact of these projected losses for all fishing countries in 2050, compared to 2000.

“Developing countries most dependent on fisheries for food and revenue will be hardest hit,” said Vicky Lam, a postdoctoral fellow at UBC’s Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, and the study’s lead author. “It is necessary to implement better marine resource management plans to increase stock resilience to climate change.”

While many communities are considering aquaculture, also known as fish farming, as a solution to ease the financial burden of fishing losses and improve food security under climate change, when researchers examined the growing industry, they found it may exacerbate the negative impact on revenues.

“Climate adaptation programs such as aquaculture development may be seen as a solution,” said William Cheung, associate professor at UBC’s Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries and a study co-author. “However, rather than easing the financial burden of fishing losses and improving food security, it may drive down the price of seafood, leading to further decreases in fisheries revenues.”

The researchers used climate models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to examine the economic impact of climate change on fish stocks and fisheries revenues under two emission scenarios. In a high emission scenario, the rates continue to rise unchecked, while a low emission scenario meant ocean warming is kept under two degrees Celsius.

“Global fisheries revenues amount to about $100 billion every year,” said co-author, Rashid Sumaila, professor at UBC’s Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries and Liu Institute for Global Studies. “Our modeling shows that a high emissions scenario could reduce global fishing revenue by an average of 10 per cent, while a low emissions scenario could reduce revenues by 7 per cent.”

The researchers found the countries that rely highly on fish are the most vulnerable, including island countries like Tokelau, Cayman Islands and Tuvalu. Meanwhile, many developed countries, such as Greenland and Iceland, could see revenue increases as fish move into cooler waters.

The study was published today in Scientific Reports.


China’s Mythification As Superpower By United States Fades – Analysis

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By Dr Subhash Kapila

Perceptionaly, United States mythification of China as a potential Superpower seems to have lasted as long as China confined itself to use of ‘Soft Power’ strategies to gain influence in Asia Pacific. The switch to ‘Hard Power’ under President Xi Jinping from 2012 signalled the end of America’s ‘China Dream’.

United States ‘China Dream’ focussed on co-opting China as a responsible stakeholder in Asia Pacific stability and this American dream pushed the United States at times to trample over the strategic sensitivities of Japan and India, the two Asian Powers on which in 2016 the United States relies heavily to emerge as strategic counterweights to China. Regrettably, like all dreams which stand divorced from reality, the ‘China Dream’ of the United States seems to have faded away as China under its current President started baring its fangs arising from its massive and threatening military build-up.

In the run-up to 2016, many in the American strategic community in their writings started drawing parallels and compared China’s not so benign military rise to rise of Nazi Germany under Hitler in the mid-1930s onwards and which emboldened Nazi Germany to challenge the existing international order leading to the Second World War.

Like Nazi Germany then, China today under President Xi Jinping in the pursuance of his grandiose “Chinese Dream” has ridden roughshod over with aggressive military brinkmanship over its neighbours stretching from the High Himalayas to the Seas of East Asia. The South China Sea conflict-escalation by China is a notable and glaring example of China’s footprints to come in the coming decades.

Reminiscent of Nazi Germany again, China had let it be known that it would not submit to any adverse rulings against China by The Hague International Arbitration Tribunal on the South China Sea dispute petition filed by the Philippines. Finally, when the Tribunal’s award negating China’s sovereignty over the South China Sea was announced, China defiantly refused to submit to the findings.

The Hague Tribunal Award against China in effect reflected that China was in illegal occupation of the Paracels and Spratly Islands in the South China Sea and also the artificial islands created on various reefs for use by the Chinese military as bases for enforcing its illegal sovereignty on this crucial maritime expanse.

The United States seems to have painfully and albeit grudgingly veering away from mystifying China as a potential Superpower and coming to grips with the reality that China’s strategic military adventurism in the Asia Pacific in recent years was in effect directed at United States exit from the region.

That the strategic denouement between China and the United States was complete was brazenly reflected by China not rolling out the red carpet on US President’s arrival in China for theG-20 Summit last week-end. President Obama had to use his plane’s step-ladder to disembark as the Chinese had not provided the appropriate facilities.

While China’s semi-official media organ The Global Times gloated that the G-20 Summit was a great success as the Russian and American Presidents had attended it was a poor veneer. Since the event stood scheduled much before The Hague Tribunal’s ruling, it was the sheer diplomatic niceties ( in which China does not believe) which forced international leaders to attend.

China’s image at the G-20Summit stood dented by the adverse rulings on the South China Sea rulings and China’s consequent defiance of international conventions and respect for international institutions. While the South China Sea dispute did not forcefully emerge at the Summit chiefly due to the timidity of a divided ASEAN, that did not lessen the adverse dent on China’s global image as a responsible stakeholder in regional peace and security

Against such a backdrop the pertinent question that arises is to whether China will be bothered with the United States ceasing to mythifying China as a potential Superpower. The answer is both yes and no.

The United States mythification of China as a Superpower was an era in which United States ‘China Hedging’ strategies were at their peak leading the United States to be permissive in viewing China’s blatant transgression all over the region. It was also the era in which the United States to spite Russia would enlist China in virtually every global discussion as the preferred partner. It was also the era in which the United States benignly neglected Japan and India.

The above trends bloated China’s strategic ego and further leading it to claim strategic equivalence with the United States. With the United States now likely to view China in realistic perspectives and more as a nation that would eventually need containment to rein in would certainly deflate the American myth on China and reducing China’s space for military-muscle diplomacy.

The growing strategic proximity of the United States with India and laying unprecedented stress on building up India’s power and power projection capabilities is indicative of the US shift in its China policies. The fact that this US shift and the enlarging US-India Strategic Partnership is anathema to China was brazenly reflected at the G-20 Summit in China. President Obama was rebuffed at the airport in not being provided the appropriate protocol facilities and reception. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the photo line-up of G-20 leaders was moved by China to the extreme corner of the row. These are not slip-ups but calculated subs in the Chinese way of doing things.

The second question asked above was whether China would be bothered by an American shift in its China perspectives? The short answer is that China would not be bothered at all flush as it is with the consciousness of its unbridled military power and China’s unbridled use of that military power in aggressive military brinkmanship as visible more noticeably in the South China Sea conflict escalation and further secure in the belief that the United States and other major powers have so far fallen short of deceive actions against China.

China never had the potential nor would it ever be a Superpower as argued by me in my Book: ’China-India Military Confrontation: 21st Century Perspectives” in a whole Chapter devoted to this aspect. There are too many external and internal impediments that China itself has created and which would prevent China reaching to that eminence.

Concluding, notwithstanding the foregoing, what the United States and countries like India and Japan have to decide is whether they would like to repeat British PM Chamberlain’s submitting to Hitler’s dictates at Munich or like the other British redoubtable PM Winston Churchill face the looming China Threat head-on?

What Our Children Should Learn About 9/11/2001 – OpEd

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By Adam Garfinkle*

(FPRI) — Around noon on September 11, 2001, my son Gabriel, away at college, called our house just outside of Washington and left this message on the answering machine: “Mom, Dad, Hannah, Nate: Is anybody there!? Is everyone OK? Dad, tell me, please: What the hell is going on?!” When I heard the message a few hours later, it made a lasting impression. My handsome, brash and outwardly confident 19-year old’s voice was quavering, just shy of crying. I had never heard this voice before, but I knew what it meant, for I remembered my plaint to my father on November 22, 1963. I listened that evening, too, to the voices of my 16-year old daughter and 13-year old son— and, of course, the listening has been ongoing. It is from this personal engagement that I approach the question of what our children should learn about 9/11.

Before suggesting any answers, however, we should understand properly the question. What our children— in America, in a democracy— should learn about 9/11 of course includes elements of the political and the civic, lessons that depend on facts and can be put into words. But what we experienced late last summer shows that our identities as citizens can never be entirely separated from our existence as human beings, and that as we approach extreme, defining events the two tend to merge. Wars throughout history have not just reshaped maps, they have transformed souls. There is, then, as my own children’s voices show me, knowledge of a more general sort to be learned not about, but from, 9/11 as well. This is a domain in which facts are elusive and words do not suffice. Consider these four suggestions for teachers, then, with this in mind.

1. Our Children Should Know the Facts.

Emotionally evocative events inevitably produce energetic expression. But such expression in the absence of basic information is, aside from the catharsis it may provide, not otherwise helpful or edifying. There is no substitute for knowing the basic story lines of 9/11. First, our children must know what literally happened in New York and at the Pentagon. Second, they must know the line of information leading backwards — to the plotters, their methods and organizations, their cultural and political environments. Third, they must know the line of information leading forward— to the military campaign in Afghanistan, the effort to roll up “sleeper” cells in the U.S. and abroad through police and intelligence cooperation, and the main outlines of new approaches to homeland security and U.S. diplomacy as they have evolved over the past year. In the process, teachers have an unusual opportunity to convey to students that the world-at-large really does matter to them, that regular newspaper reading is a good personal and civic habit, and that it helps to know what you’re talking about before opening your mouth to speak.

2. Our Children Should Not Abjure Judgment.

All historical interpretation, even of recent history, involves making moral judgments. Once the facts are in hand, it is possible for children to make moral judgments appropriate to their level of intellectual development. We are proud to teach our children the discipline involved in making analytical judgments, but some Americans have lately become reluctant even to acknowledge the existence of a similar ethical discipline. Some people believe that judging others is virtually always wrong, that no agreed standard of morality can exist outside a situational (i.e., temporary and local) consensus, and that believing in the superior virtue of one’s own social and politic values is somehow vulgar. Such people are usually quicker to blame American behavior for what happened on September 11 than the actual perpetrators of some 3,000 murders. People may believe what they like, of course; but such a view would have struck the American Founders as incomprehensible, it strikes most Americans as perverse, and it does not jibe with what the best analysts (like Robert Coles) of a child’s inner life tell us — that children as young as five or six years old have an understanding of basic fairness, of right and wrong, that we are moral beings by nature. If sophisticated adults don’t squelch that understanding, our children might actually grow into responsible adults in a democratic civilization.

A pertinent example: Those who shun moral judgment often say that “terrorist” is a meaningless word because “one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter.” But a terrorist can be defined with reasonable precision, as a non-state actor (i.e., an actor unaccountable, democratically or otherwise, to a larger community) who deliberately kills innocent civilians to advance a cause. Whatever the cause and however one feels about it, there is still nothing amiss with our children reaching the moral judgment that such behavior is always wrong.

3. Our Children Should Learn to Make Distinctions.

Facts in hand and judgments permitted (if not encouraged), we must teach our children not to conflate people, behaviors and ideas that ought to stay separate. Really knowing the facts helps a lot, but it is not enough; patience and diligence in exercising judgment are also required. Historical realities have set Muslim Arab societies much at odds with the West and the United States, and at some level this is what produced 9/11. Some of our differences are cultural, theological or philosophical in nature. Some arise from conflicting interests, and others have to do with specific policies or actions that various governments have taken. It is not easy in practice to keep all these strands apart; political reality, like what happens when you wash your hair, tends to a natural tangle. But we have to try to make sensible distinctions. For starters, there are no Middle Easterners for any practical purpose: Iranians are not Arabs, Arabs are not Turks, Turks are not Pashtuns. Islam— a proper noun— is not an “enemy” of the West (another proper noun), because neither Islam nor the West describes a decision-making unit, and neither is remotely monolithic. Not all Saudis want to emulate Osama bin Laden; not all acts of violence are terrorism; the status of women is not the same in all Muslim societies; and so on, and on, and on.

Of course we must generalize when we speak, or we would never get to a second paragraph in anything we wish to speak about. But children should learn to treat all generalizations with care and to cherish distinctions properly made. It is easier and so much quicker to generalize than to specify, to conflate than to distinguish; but our children should learn that the “easy way out” is the “hardest way in” to genuine achievement or wisdom— about 9/11, or anything else.

4. Our Children Must Learn to Live with Uncertainty.

Facts, judgments, distinctions— these are all important; but even our best efforts with them will not eliminate our fears, create perfect security, or enable us to predict the future. As an idea and as a society, America will continue to have enemies no matter what we do; these enemies will sometimes try to harm us and may sometimes succeed in doing so. We would like not to have to think about such frightening things; indeed, we want to believe that some day we will put an end to violence and enmity between peoples altogether. It is good to hope for and work toward such ends, but at the same time we must be realistic about what the world will abide. Will there be another terrible attack on America? Where? When? Will we ever find and punish the people who put anthrax in the mail, so that we’ll be sure they won’t be able to do it again? We really don’t know, and we do our children no service by telling them otherwise. Our uncertainties, however, must not demobilize us. There is a huge difference between living in fear and living with fear. If we succumb to the former, then the terrorists win, because that is the strategy of terrorism: to cause its target to be untrue to its own values and to distort its normal way of life. That is why if we do not learn to cope with uncertainty — each one of us, for, after all, we add up one by one to America— we will do our enemies’ work for them. Maybe children should learn to sing “Whistle a Happy Tune” from The King and I; it may be out of fashion in some circles, but there is nothing wrong with learning to be brave.

Make them learn the facts, allow them to exercise their right to be moral beings, teach them patience and diligence in judgment, and encourage them to be realistic and brave— this should suffice for lesson one in teaching our children about 9/11. If teachers convey lesson one well, then, to paraphrase Ben Franklin, lesson two can be anything they want it to be.

To view other thoughts on what our children should learn about 9/11, including an essay by Wachman Fund Senior Fellow Lucien Ellington, visit the website of the Educational Excellence Network.

About the author:
*Dr. Adam Garfinkle
, editor of The National Interest, was a fellow at FPRI for over 20 years and served a stint as a staff member of the U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century.

Source:
This article was published by FPRI. Through our Marvin Wachman Fund for International Education, the Foreign Policy Research Institute fosters civic and international literacy in the community and in the classroom. The Wachman Fund sponsors professional-development weekends for teachers from all over the country, and occasional “teach-ins” for students in the Delaware Valley. With controversy brewing over the National Education Association’s suggested lesson plans for 9/11, we asked Adam Garfinkle to offer some thoughts on what our children should learn about 9/11. Dr. Garfinkle keynoted our November 27, 2001 “teach-in” on terrorism, speaking to some 300 students from over a dozen high schools. Footnotes, the bulletin of the Wachman Fund, is distributed to teachers all over the country by email and fax.

Discovery Nearly Doubles Known Quasars From Ancient Universe

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Quasars are supermassive black holes that sit at the center of enormous galaxies, accreting matter. They shine so brightly that they are often referred to as beacons and are among the most-distant objects in the universe that we can currently study. New work from a team led by Carnegie’s Eduardo Bañados has discovered 63 new quasars from when the universe was only a billion years old. (It’s about 14 billion years old today.)

This is the largest sample of such distant quasars presented in a single scientific article, almost doubling the number of ancient quasars previously known. The findings will be published by The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series.

“Quasars are among the brightest objects and they literally illuminate our knowledge of the early universe,” Bañados said.

But until now, the population of known ancient quasars was fairly small, so scientists’ ability to glean information from them was limited. One of the main challenges is finding these distant quasars, which are extremely rare. Scientists have searched for them for decades, but the effort is comparable to finding a needle in a haystack.

The quasars discovered by Bañados and his team will provide valuable information from the first billion years after the Big Bang, which is a period of great interest to astronomers.

Why?

The universe was created in the Big Bang and hot matter exploded everywhere. But then it cooled off enough for the first protons and electrons to form and then to coalesce into hydrogen atoms, which resulted in a dark universe for a long time. It wasn’t until these atomic nuclei formed larger structures that light was able to shine once again in the universe. This happened when gravity condensed the matter and eventually formed the first sources of illumination, which might have included quasars.

There is still a lot about this era when the universe’s lights were turned back on that science doesn’t understand. But having more examples of ancient quasars will help experts to figure out what happened in those first billion years after the Big Bang.

“The formation and evolution of the earliest light sources and structures in the universe is one of the greatest mysteries in astronomy,” Bañados said. “Very bright quasars such as the 63 discovered in this study are the best tools for helping us probe the early universe. But until now, conclusive results have been limited by the very small sample size of ancient quasars.”

The coming years will see a great improvement in what we know about the early universe thanks to these discoveries.

Saudi Arabia: Nearly 2 Million Pilgrims Seek Forgiveness At Arafat

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Nearly two million pilgrims, from all corners of the world, converged on the plains of Arafat, 15 km from the holy city of Makkah, on Sunday to perform the most important ritual of Haj — Wuqoof-e-Arafat.

A white sea of the faithful surged from Mina to Arafat as dawn broke on the second day of the five-day pilgrimage. Waves of men in seamless white garments and veiled women in long dresses joined voices in a crescendo chant of “Labbaik Allahumma Labbaik” (Here I am O Allah, answering your call). Standing at Mount Arafat in prayer before sunset on 9th Dul Hijjah is the high point of Haj.

The pilgrims were completely lost in their surroundings in a fervor of religious enthusiasm.

It was very hot, with temperatures often above 40 degrees Celsius. However, the harsh rays of the sun did not dampen the spirit of the pilgrims and they remained unperturbed and recited verses from the Holy Qur’an with even greater vigor.

Tears rolled down the cheeks of pilgrims as they climbed Jabal Al-Rahma or Mount of Mercy, where Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, delivered his final sermon more than 14 centuries ago.

The mount was crowded by pilgrims who sat or stood there for hours contemplating and praying.
Under multicolored umbrellas as protection from the burning sun, the mass of people moved through the broad streets of Arafat.

Egyptian pilgrim Mahmoud Awny said the feeling of being in Arafat was “indescribable.” “All Muslims wish they could be here today. Thanks be to Allah for enabling me to be here,” he said.

“I have prayed to God to have mercy on us, give us relief and resolve Syria’s crisis,” said Umm Fadi, wearing a traditional long black embroidered dress and head scarf native to her home in southern Syria.

“From the bottom of my heart, I pray that Allah will lift this agony from Syria and its people,” she said.

“Muslims come here from everywhere and we are all the same,” said Khadem Ndyaye, 47, from Senegal.

Indian pilgrim Mohammed Arefin, 40, said he felt “chosen by Allah” for being able to perform Haj. “It is very moving to see the Muslims of the world pray together here,” he said. “It’s the most beautiful moment of my life,” said Ahmad Salman, an Egyptian pilgrim.

Soon after sunset, the pilgrims headed to nearby Muzdalifa where they will spend the night under the open skies and collect pea-sized pebbles to perform the symbolic ritual of stoning the devil on Monday in Mina.

Merkel Wants Further Talks On Trade Deal Between EU And US

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German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the EU should continue negotiations with the United States on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). But doubts about the trade deal and resisitance against it are growing, Deutsche Welle reports.

Chancellor Merkel told the Funke Mediengruppe, a German newspaper chain, that she advocated continuing the negotiations between the U.S. and the European Union – in order to reach an agreement before U.S. President Barack Obama leaves office in January 2017.

While that timeline may seem ambitious, Merkel said the TTIP trade deal would also serve as a stimulus to alleviate unemployment across the EU.

“That’s why we should support everything that can create jobs, and that includes the free trade deal,” she said and added that she had shared her views with the U.S. President during the G20 meeting in China.

As opposed to the CETA trade agreement with Canada, TTIP is, however, still in its early stages and might require long negotiations until it can be ratified.

Chancellor Merkel’s deputy, German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel, had caused a stir last month when he declared that the bilateral talks were “de facto dead,” as a growing number of Germans voiced their opposition to the deal in a series of protests.

France and Belgium have also cast doubt on the prospects for the new trade deal. However, the EU has repeatedly stressed its mandate to finalize the agreement.

Skepticism has meanwhile also started to grow among Americans.

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