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Bosnian Serb Referendum Results Questioned

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By Eleanor Rose

After the final results of the controversial referendum showed an overwhelming majority had voted to keep the date of the entity’s ‘statehood day’, some experts have queried the reliability of the results.

Sinisa Karan, president of the referendum commission in Republika Srpska, told a press conference on Monday that, after all votes have been counted, 99.81 per cent of voters had said “yes” to maintaining January 9 as the mainly Serbian entity’s national day.

Karan said that of the 1,219,399 people eligible to vote, 680,116 did so, giving a turnout of 55.67 per cent.

However, some experts say that the result is questionable, given that the disputed referendum in Republika Srpska took place in a legal and procedural vacuum, without proper oversight.

They also note that there is no real way to check the accuracy of the results of the referendum, which the country’s constitutional court had outlawed.

One journalist, Slobodan Vaskovic, told the media that he believed the turnout numbers were faked.

“The referendum was unsuccessful and the results were rigged. What was published by the referendum commission, that the turnout was between 59 and 60 per cent, is simply not true,” Vaskovic told the news website Klix.ba. Vaskovic said he believed the true turnout was between 47 and 49 per cent.

“The people did not vote in the referendum because they recognized the danger to security and the political repercussions in Bosnia and Herzegovina,” Vaskovic added.

He also maintained that RS President Milorad Dodik, “in last night’s [Sunday night’s] public address showed that he was dissatisfied”, referring to comments by Dodik that those who did not vote should feel ashamed.

The Democratization Policy Council, DPC, an NGO promotes accountability in Western democratization policy, has raised questions over the logistics and has said the vote took place in a “legal and procedural vacuum”.

It asked how the list of voters could include more than 1.2 million people when the 2013 census indicated that only 1,009,946 people over the age of 18 lived in Republika Srpska.

One explanation for the difference could be that Bosnian Serb voters in the diaspora were included in the larger figure.

But DPC co-founder Kurt Bassuener told BIRN on Monday that the results from voters abroad were questionable since the RS representative offices and social clubs that served as polling stations had no official or diplomatic status.

“I would be dubious about the out-of-the-country vote,” he said, noting that the referendum turnout needed to be above 50 percent for its results to be valid, even if it were a legally conducted referendum. “There’s no way to know except to take their word for it, which is questionable,” he concluded.

The coalition of NGOs called Pod Lupom [“Under the Spotlight”], which will oversee the upcoming local elections in Bosnia, told BIRN it did not oversee the referendum and therefore could not comment on the result.

Mario Brkic, spokesman for the Office of the High Representative, OHR, the country’s international overseer, told BIRN that whether the results of the referendum were accurate or not was irrelevant, since the referendum had no legal basis.

“It was illegally conducted and represents a challenge to the BiH Constitutional Court, the constitutional framework of the country, and the rule of law in BiH. The RS referendum commission acted illegally and therefore all their actions were carried out outside the law. The OHR did not monitor the referendum nor participate in any other way,” Brkic said in a written statement.

The Central Election Commission also confirmed to BIRN that it did not oversee any aspect of the vote. The OSCE in Bosnia was contacted for comment but none was returned by time of publication.


Reasons Behind Rise Of Trumpism And Consequences In US – Analysis

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By Hossein Kebriaeezadeh*

There has always been a special sensitivity toward empowerment of radical right currents in political and social structures of the West, especially in the United States. However, despite all mechanisms devised to prevent this from happening, a new phenomenon in the form of the US Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump, is taking shape within the presidential election system of the world’s main hub of democracy, which carries many similarities to the West’s past bitter experiences with regard to the rise of radical right parties.

Trump’s remarks and what he says in his election meetings, which are an amalgam of populist ideas, radical nationalism, and rightist ideas, must not be taken lightly and nobody must think that these issues stem from Trump’s own personality. Trump must be considered as a person who is well aware of social, political and economic layers of the American society and is trying to take advantage of the existing gaps among these layers in his own benefit through propaganda ploys.

An election behavior, which is based on political sentimentalism and avoiding the accepted logic of liberal democracy by inciting the public sentiments in the United States, which sometimes gets close to racism when it deals with Mexican or Muslim immigrants, has caused trump to come up with ideals in politics, which were not extant before.

The 58th presidential elections in the United States is not simply witnessing protests to social support system, but is seeing a rise in radical patriotism, which is the dominant characteristic of most of Trump’s speeches. This issue has helped Trump, with his own personal characteristics, to be able to communicate with the American masses who are fed-up with politics. Trump’s totalitarianism is very attractive for this part of the American society, which is not a small part, because he offers new readings of American values suitable for existing conditions, which are not too intellectualist and boring, and also presents a new form of social support system.

Trump and Trumpism have found their own audiences. If the US public opinion welcomes him and Trump becomes the next president of the United States, nobody should simplistically assume that a new Hitler will be born in the United States. The political and social structure governing this country will not allow for a fascistic form of radicalism to grow, but Trump will follow his own rules within this structure and will play his rules in such fields as trade, accepting immigrants, domestic policy, relations with the legislature, foreign policy, fighting terrorism and so forth.

The foreign policy approach of the United States under Trump will become more aggressive and militarized in regions such as the Middle East, which account for most challenges facing the incumbent President Barack Obama. As put by the French President Francois Hollande, the foreign policy apparatus of Trump administration will be dangerous to the world peace, because he does not believe in win-win negotiations.

Trumpism, which believes that the American dream must be realized in the country’s foreign policy as well, is of the opinion that the United States should get anything it wants in international arena by any means and at any cost possible.

Since Trump lacks political experiences, he will be inevitably taking a businesslike approach to politics and in view of different forms of rationality and logic that govern these two areas, it will cause problems for the world, especially at critical junctures.

Before considering himself as a calculating politician, Trump introduces himself as a profiteer and by questioning traditional approaches of the Republican Party he will bring about non-structural and unsupported changes in realistic concepts related to domestic and foreign policies of the United States, strategic alliances like NATO, relations with friendly countries, and the type of the United States’ relations with and behavior toward hostile countries.

However, these untoward developments will not simply take place when Trump is elected as president, but the American society and politics is already under the influence of Trumpism.

Further strengthening of rightist ideas under a conservative cover in order to garner more votes will gradually provide suitable grounds for bringing about changes in the party structure and policies, which are followed by the Republicans. It is also possible that the tradition of republicanism in this country will undergo changes, the most important of which will be in how the American utopia is delineated from now on and also in the regulation of government’s relations with the masses.

From now on, populism will not be considered as a negative issue in the United States’ election system and this line of thinking will have its own new agents in future elections. This issue has, in turn, targeted the eclecticism, which has been institutionalized in the United States election system.

* Hossein Kebriaeezadeh
Expert on Middle East Issues

Attack On Uri – OpEd

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By Hardeep Singh Puri

There comes a point in the conduct of foreign and security policy when the state is left with no option but to change the game and play hardball. Such a stage has been reached in relation to Pakistan. Pakistan has consistently and systematically used terror as an instrument of policy in dealings with India. A pliant Indian state, anchored in responsible conduct, has tried to use its limited margin of persuasion to make Pakistan see reason.

The terrorist attack in Uri, perhaps the worst of its kind in 20 years, has resulted in the crossing of all thresholds. It has produced a reaction in India which Pakistan had perhaps underestimated. The government of the day, even if it wishes to exercise restraint, may be forced by public opinion to do otherwise. That, however, does not mean that India’s reactions should be reckless or knee-jerk. All the more reason, India’s reaction will have to be carefully thought through, multi-layered and calibrated.

‘Covenants, without the swords, are but words and of no strength to secure a man at all’, to quote Hobbes’ Leviathan.

Little comfort can be drawn from the fact that many countries at the highest political levels of leadership, including the UN Secretary-General, have said that they side with India in the fight against terror. Outreach to the international community and sensitizing them will not produce the results India seeks if Pakistan continues to be in denial. If past evidence is anything to go by, India can produce all the evidence it wants of Pakistan’s harbouring of terrorists, hosting of terrorist training camps, and allowing their soil to be the staging grounds for attacks against India. Pakistan’s culpability stands established beyond doubt. Pakistan has always taken the plea that as a state it has no involvement and no leverage on non-state military actors. After tempers cool down somewhat, that is likely to be Pakistan’s response to the Uri attack as well. This will not leave India with too many options. Unless pain is inflicted on Pakistan in a carefully calibrated manner, the terrorist onslaught will continue.

The Uri attack has nothing to do with the situation in the Kashmir valley which India has to address. If there have been shortcomings in the way the ongoing tensions there have been handled, then responsibility should be fixed and corrective action ordered. A vulnerable situation in a part of India provides no justification whatsoever for Pakistan-sponsored terrorism from its soil.

International Law allows the waging of war in self-defense. The fear of an escalation is exactly what Pakistan is counting on. Even as we drum diplomatic support against Pakistan’s policies, there should be a realistic understanding about the feasibility of different options. Apart from countries choosing to impose sanctions bilaterally, the UN Security Council is the only body which can authorize multilateral sanctions. It is predictably unlikely that China, wielding its vetoes, will allow the Council to head in such a direction.

Pakistan’s actions have left India with very few choices. We will have to fend for ourselves in order to produce sufficient safeguards to ensure that Pakistan pays a price to rethink its involvement with the terror machine.

Disclaimer: Daily SAMosa presents quick takes on issues that matter to South Asia. It is open to contributions between 100-200 words, although their publishing will be at the final discretion of SAM Editor. Content with your name, designation and institution can be sent on: editor@spsindia.in

Vatican Revises Norms For Examining Alleged Miracles

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In an effort to ensure transparency, as well as historical and scientific accuracy, Pope Francis has approved revised norms for the Congregation for Saints’ Causes regarding medical consultations on healings alleged to be miracles.

Among the regulations published by the Vatican Sept. 23 was the requirement that the medical panel has a quorum of six experts and that a two-thirds majority is needed to approve a statement declaring a healing has no natural or scientific explanation, CNS reported.

Previously, the declaration — a key step in a pope’s recognition of a miracle attributed to the intercession of a candidate for sainthood — required the approval of a simple majority of the consultation team members present.

“The purpose of the regulation is for the good of the [saints’] causes, which can never be separated from the historical and scientific truth of the alleged miracles,” Archbishop Marcello Bartolucci, secretary of the congregation, said on Sept. 23.

Archbishop Bartolucci presided over a seven-member commission that began revising the regulations in September 2015 to update the norms established by St. John Paul II in 1983. Except in the case of martyrs, in general two miracles are needed for a person to be declared a saint — one for beatification and the second for canonization.

The new regulations, which were approved with the pope’s mandate Aug. 24 by Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Vatican secretary of state, also state that an alleged miracle “cannot be re-examined more than three times.”

A presumed miracle is first reviewed by two medical experts within the congregation, and with their recommendation is then sent to the medical consultation team.

Cauvery Violence Reverberates Across The Palk Strait – Analysis

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By N. Sathiya Moorthy*

In an unprecedented move, Sri Lankan Tamil political parties have written to Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the Cauvery-centric attacks on their Indian Tamil brethren in the neighbouring state of Karnataka. Some partners in the mainstay Tamil National Alliance (TNA) are signatories to the letter, but neither TNA Leader of the Opposition in parliament, R Sampanthan, nor Northern Province Chief Minister C V Wigneswaran, are among them.

Observing that Tamils of Karnataka have been undergoing “immense suffering”, the letter expressed confidence about the ability of the governments of India, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu to act in concert to ensure their safety and security, and also those of Kannadigas in Tamil Nadu. They appreciated the efforts being taken by the governments of India, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu to contain the violence and restore normalcy.

Reflecting the low-profile nature of the initiative, the signatories as a team handed over the letter to A Natarajan, India’s Consul-General in Jaffna. In the ordinary course, a higher-level team would have met with High Commissioner Y K Sinha or other senior officials at the Indian embassy in Colombo. Whether it was a deliberate decision on the part of the TNA leadership, or it reflects the re-emergence of fissures within the Alliance is too early to say.

If none of the senior-most leaders of the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK), which is the mainstay of the TNA, is a signatory, some party leaders did affix their stamp. Yet, it’s unclear if they had the moderate leadership’s say-so, or acted on their own volition, as has been the case on other occasions, too.

The other TNA partners that signed the letter included those of the Eelam People’s Revolutionary Liberation Front (EPRLF), the People’s Liberation Organization of Tamil Eelam (PLOTE) and Tamil Eelam Liberation Organisation (TELO), all TNA partners. From among them, EPRLF’s Suresh Premachandran is the party head, and PLOTE’s D Sidharthan is also a TNA member of the nation’s Parliament.

Significantly, former central minister and Eelam People’s Democratic Party (EPDP leader, Douglas Devananda, MP, is a signatory and was also present at the CG office. As the major Tamil party, the ITAK-TNA is not favourably disposed to Devananda and the EPDP. The LTTE was also believed to have made several attempts on Devananda’s life. Having stayed on the right side of the government party in power in Colombo through the last two decades of the war, he has lately been appearing in some of the public functions of President Maithiripala Sirisena, though not admitted into either the ruling combine or the government at the centre.

The signatories to the letter also include the Tamil National People’s Front (TNPF), but even more so the Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF). Once the umbrella organisation of all moderate Tamil political parties, the TULF lost ground first to the LTTE, and alongside to the TNA, too. Post-war, post-LTTE, many irreconcilable yet personality-oriented differences seem to haunt their coming together, though TULF is now a very poor shadow of its original self.

What makes the initiative even more interesting, if not equally significant, is the presence of a moderate Tamil leader, ‘Maravanpulavu’ Sachithananthan, as the ‘spirit’ behind the move. Having identified with the larger Sri Lankan Tamil-Hindu cause in recent years, the New Indian Express quoted him as saying that “it should be the bounden duty of the Tamils of Sri Lanka to express concern over the plight of the Tamils in Karnataka, as the Tamils of the state had supported the Tamils of Sri Lanka when this community was under attack”.

While the support and backing of Tamil Nadu polity and at times people to the Sri Lankan Tamil cause is well-known and documented, too, this is possibly the first time that any political party or group has so very openly come out in support of what remains an ‘internal affair’ of India. There is no denying that the current initiative has nothing to do with the Sri Lankan government or the elected TNA administration in the Northern Province, not even of the party, per se.

In context, successive governments in India have been sensitive to similar ‘initiatives’ by neighbourhood nations and/or political entities and leaders, to flag their purported concerns on Indians in other parts of the country. Jammu and Kashmir is only one, though significant, example. Yet, Tamil Nadu is one demonstrable example of the mainstreaming of one-time ‘separatist’ political entity through the post-Independent constitutional and electoral processes.

The current Sri Lankan Tamil political initiative and the sensitivity attaching to it assume greater significance, considering the not-so-infrequent peripheral reference to the cause of ‘Greater Eelam’. It’s a farther cry even from the LTTE’s ‘Eelam cause’ in the past, but it still has marginal/marginalised sympathisers, though not outright supporters, on either side of the Palk Strait and also among counterparts in the Sri Lankan Tamil Diaspora.

Significantly, though on another plane, the Tamil parties, including the TNA, have been taking a stand independent of Tamil Nadu brethren’s concerns on the ticklish ‘fishing issue’. In the post-war scenario in Sri Lanka, the TNA has acceded to prevailing Tamil fishers’ mood in the North and East, condemning the Indian counterparts’ use of destructive bottom-trawlers in their ‘traditional waters’. That the SLT fishers’ ‘justifiable’ line coincides with the official position of the government in that country does not help matters.

Seeking to internationalise the issue, but not having to go to international judicial or quasi-legal fora like UNCLOS, Sri Lanka’s Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera recently called for a ban on bottom trawling, in a Washington conclave. Speaking at the ‘Our Ocean 2016 conference’, he said that Sri Lanka was committed to combating ‘Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU)’.

Taking off from where his Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has left in parliamentary interventions since returning to power in 2015, Minister Samaraweera referred to the European Union (EU) imposing a ban on fish exports from Sri Lanka, citing IUU fishing concerns. The ban lasted 15 months, and was lifted only in April this year. Over the past one-and-half-plus year, senior TNA parliamentarian, M A Sumanthiran, too, has moved a bill on converting an existing Executive ban on bottom-trawling in Sri Lankan waters into a legal ban, through a parliamentary law.

Even more recently, Sri Lankan President Maithiripala Sirisena told India’s Minister of State for External Affairs M J Akbar, ahead of the UN General Assembly session at New York, on the “concerns” of his nation and its Northern Tamil fishers “about the damage caused to the sea and marine resources” by their Indian counterparts. He reiterated the call for a negotiated settlement, involving the fishers from the two countries. It’s another matter that such efforts in recent years have not yielded any results. Incidentally, Sirisena also reportedly talked about violence in Jammu and Kashmir, and said “violence should be dealt with patience and dialogue is the only way to find solutions to such issues”. He had earlier expressed his grief over the Uri killings to Prime Minister Narendra Modi over phone.

The message was and is clear, what with Sri Lankan academics too calling for third-nation export-ban on “IUU fishing by Indian fishermen” in the Palk Bay. From the Indian side, attaching to the fishers’ issue is not only the ‘historic’ livelihood concerns of the Tamil Nadu fishers in their ‘traditional waters’, but also the ‘Katchchativu issue’. Tamil Nadu’s AIADMK Chief Minister Jayalalithaa, first, followed by DMK predecessor, M Karunanidhi, have both challenged the twin bilateral agreements of 1974 and 1976, in the Supreme Court. Successive governments at the Centre have however stood by the agreements and the consequent UNCLOS notification.

Prima facie, the SLT parties concern for the Tamils in Karnataka and the fishers’ row are significantly different issues. The former could even be a reflection on the off-again-on-again internal differences within the Tamil polity in Sri Lanka, and on the weaklings in the TNA wooing new allies outside of the Alliance, if only to irritate the ITAK leader.

Thus far, none of the TNA members have had the courage to walk out and face elections on their own. But should there be a future split in the Alliance, in whatever form and whenever, ‘fishers row’ could be one such issue where ‘competitive Tamil politics’ may surface in Sri Lanka as ‘competitive pan-Tamil politics’ in India has been, for decades now. Should it end up leading to an across-the-Strait political alignment/re-alignment of whatever kind, it’s a cause for concern now as much as then. It does not matter if and when it happens

*N. Sathiya Moorthy is Director, Chennai Chapter of the Observer Research Foundation. Comments and suggestions on this article can be sent on: editor@spsindia.in

Turkey: Markets Down After Moody’s Downgrades Credit Grade To Junk Status

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Turkish financial markets took a battering Monday, September 26 after ratings agency Moody’s downgraded the country’s credit grade to junk status to account for a series of shocks to the economy that included a string of bombings and an attempted coup, the Associated Press reports.

The Istanbul 100 stock index was down 4.4% at 76,237 points and the national currency, the lira, also took a hit. The dollar was up 0.5% at 2.9822 lira.

The sell-off is largely due to Moody’s statement late Friday that it was cutting Turkey’s government debt rating to Ba1 from Baa3. The downgrade means Moody’s joins Standard & Poor’s in rating Turkey below investment grade. That’s important because it will likely cost the government more to borrow on capital markets and prompt some investment funds to sell Turkish assets.

Turkey’s economy has suffered this year in the face of a string of extremist attacks and uncertainty following the failed coup on July 15 against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that saw more than 270 people killed.

Tourism, a key component of the economy as well as a substantial foreign-currency earner, has taken a hit — not least because Russian tourists have stayed away in the wake of a diplomatic spat over Turkey’s downing of a Russian warplane last year.

Moody’s said the “upsurge in security-related incidents” and the sanctions imposed by Russia last year following the downing of the jet, have had “an adverse impact” on tourism, which accounts for around 4.4 percent of Turkey’s annual GDP but 15 percent of its foreign capital receipts. In the first half of this year, Moody’s said, tourist arrivals and revenues were down 27.9 percent and 28.2 percent compared with the same period last year.

The agency said that the country “continues to operate in a fragile financial and geopolitical environment and that its external vulnerability has risen, both over the past two years and more recently as a result of unpredictable political developments and volatile investor perception.”

It added that this has “credit implications for Turkey given its dependence on foreign capital.”

Afghanistan: Peace With Warlord Sends Mixed Signals – Analysis

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By Chayanika Saxena*

Is it finally peace time in Afghanistan? Cutting peace deals with warring factions is generally considered one step forward in the direction of peace. But what if this one step forward for peace is actually two steps backwards for justice? These are the questions that are being asked about the peace deal that has been brokered in Afghanistan – between the government of Afghanistan and the militant group, Hezb-e-Islami.

Ordinarily, the path towards peace entails, at the basic level, reconciliation between all the factions involved in a conflict. In the case of Afghanistan too, and as persistent efforts at getting Taliban to the table of talks have come to show, getting the major stakeholders on the same page lies at heart of ensuring effective and sustainable reconciliation. However, equally pertinent are concerns related to justice.

Both theoretically and practically, balancing peace with justice has not been a plain sailing. In fact, most often, these two components which are equally essential for achieving and sustaining effective reconciliation have thrown up major dilemmas. While, ideally, both peace and justice should go hand in hand, reinforcing each other in the process, their actual realization is often far off this ideal mark. In fact, in many cases, instead of working in tandem peace and justice appear divergent in the means they employ to achieve the same goal of reconciliation. Approaching a shared goal in different ways, the end product of such a forked path, expectedly, leads nowhere; at least not anywhere close to what is expected.

Afghanistan, it appears, is charting the same forked path. In efforts to put an end to conflicts that have wrecked the country for over four decades, the Afghan government has brokered a peace deal with Gulbuddin Hekmatyar led Hezb-e-Islami (HEM), allowing in return of cessation of violence from this militant group full immunity from prosecution against the previously committed war crimes.

This peace deal that was being negotiated for two years has generated serious concerns about the signals it sends. At one level, apprehensions remain about the substantive execution of this peace deal. At another level, the clauses of the peace deal are being seen as having set a wrong precedent to follow. In addition to the probable, direct impacts of the peace deal, it is also being opined that the brokering of an accord between the HEM and Afghan government might have a deleterious impact on the prospects of negotiating with the Taliban. While it cannot be said with certainty that the Taliban – which has already refused to negotiate unless its demands are met – will further distance itself from the peace process, but given the rivalry that has persisted between it and the HEM, it is highly likely that the Taliban will not follow in its footsteps.

Let us look at these three direct and indirect fallouts individually.

Beginning with the probable non-substantive execution of the peace deal; it is feared, and not without basis, that the promises made in the peace deal might get reneged and that the deal might not be able to bring any substantive change on the ground. While all ‘voluntary’ contracts factor in an element of uncertainty, however in the case of the peace deal between the Afghan government and HEM, there is more than just an element of doubt about its faithful execution; there are ample reasons available for one to fear that the brokered deal might turn out to be a dud.

Afghanistan, which is touted for its sheer unpredictability, has witnessed variety of conflicts in the last four decades and with various domestic, regional and international actors adding to the mess. The ‘lines of conflict’ in Afghanistan, as an Indian ex-diplomat has noted, have shifted pretty often to impart any clarity on where loyalties of the warring factions lie. Hekmatyar’s HEM has been no exception to this ‘rule’.

As an Islamist organization that was at the forefront of the ‘jihad’ against the Soviet Union during its decade long occupation of Afghanistan (1979-89), HEM had emerged from a movement that was galvanized at the Kabul University beginning 1969. Called ‘Saazmaan-i-Jawaanaan Musalmaan’ or ‘Muslim Youth’, this organization was incepted by some junior professors, of which Hekmatyar too was part, and students to fight the ‘Godless Communists’, whose ideology they believed was on the rise in Kabul University specifically and in the Kabul city at a larger level.

This organization was led by Burhannudin Rabbani, with Abdul Rasul Sayyaf as its vice-chair and Hekmatyar as its political director. While leading the movement together for almost a decade, it got split between these three leaders (primarily), with each creating their own militant/political groupings to fight the Soviets on the backing of American aid and Pakistani guidance.

A part of Peshawar Seven – the seven parties that were operating from Pakistan on the finances provided to them by CIA and logistical support lent by ISI – HEM, for its radical Islamist leanings, was believed to have been the most favored in the lot. Populated with seminaries and radical youth who were prepared for ‘jihad’ in the Madrassas that were being lined along the Pakistani side of the Durand Line, Hekmatyar’s HEM was expected to not only wage war against the Soviets – the American goal – but also establish a regime compliant to Pakistani dictates following the withdrawal of the USSR. However, things were to take a different course as the Soviets left Afghanistan.

Following the brief stint of a Communist-backed PDPA in power between 1989 and 1992, a scramble for power began between the various mujahedeen parties. Each of these seven parties (along with a lot of another eight that were ostensibly backed by Iran – ‘Tehran Eight’) saw themselves as ‘legitimate’ representative of Afghanistan and Afghan people and hence, fought for political control of Kabul.

Agreeing to a power-sharing agreement that came to be known as the ‘Peshawar Accord’, all mujahedeen parties except for Hekmatyar’s HEM agreed to establish a unity government on a power/seat rotation basis. While Hekmatyar was invited to become a part of the coalition government as its prime minister, he refused to assume the post on the ground that ‘in Afghanistan, coalition government is impossible because, this way or another, it is going to be weak and incapable of stabilizing the situation there’. Seeking full and undivided authority over Kabul and through that over the whole of Afghanistan, Hekmatyar launched rocket attacks on the capital from various locations, thereby earning the infamous epithet of ‘Gulbuddin Rocketyaar’. Having reneged on his promises in the past and for bringing ruin upon the capital of Afghanistan, Hekmatyar came to be known as the ‘butcher of Kabul’. A gross human rights violator, it has been reported that he had himself guided many attacks on Kabul, killing thousands of innocents in the process.

Thus, given the history of what he and his organization did to further wreck Afghanistan, not trusting his intentions and assurances spelt out in the recently concluded peace deal had to be the most likely reaction within Afghanistan and beyond. Furthermore, since he had also refused to sign the peace deal in the past – because of his unhappiness with certain provisions that, reportedly, were not disclosed to him during the negotiations – the apprehensions related to the execution of the present peace deal appear to be real and solid. Also, it needs to be noted that the peace deal is yet to come into effect as the draft is still to receive the signatures of the President of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani and Hekmatyar. So, if the specter of shifting lines of conflict in Afghanistan still looms large, we could still see the possibility of one party/parties to the contract going back on the deal.

The provisions of the deal have generated more serious concerns. The 3 chapters, 25 articles long peace deal was signed on September 10, 2016. Apart from calling upon HEM ‘to cut its ties with all terrorist groups and other illegal armed groups and that it will not further support them’ (Article 19) and that it shall participate in political, economic, defense and social domains of Afghanistan in line with the principles laid down in the Constitution, there isn’t anything much immediate and concrete that is expected of this group. On the other hand, the Government of Afghanistan has undertaken the role and responsibility to finance and secure the rehabilitation of the leader of HEM and those involved with the organization (as per Articles 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 and 14), in effecting pardoning and giving immunity to Hekmatyar and his people for the various atrocities they had committed.

While the peace deal has been welcomed by US, EU and United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), it has been severely criticized by human rights organizations and many political parties in the country. Hizb-e-Hambastagi party has strongly opposed to the inclusion of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar in the peace process. Moreover, addressing him as ‘his excellency’ and ‘honorable’ have angered many across the board. In fact, according to New York Times, the use of the word ‘amir’ for Hekmatyar is expected to anger the Taliban that reserves the title for its leader.

The Taliban, which has often drawn its swords on HEM, is expected not to follow suit and engage in the peace process unless its pre-requisites are met. Although it will not be wise to compare the two lots, especially given their respective size, appeal and status, it is being believed that the Taliban will further reinforce its decision to not to engage in the peace process now that its ‘rival’ has done so. It needs to be noted that the Taliban, which despite having received many setbacks in the past is still steadfast in its refusal to join the peace process, is not considerably harried about being granted immunity or amnesty. Their goals are larger than becoming a part of Afghanistan’s political process in its current format; they aim to overhaul the present system as they see it as illegitimate. In the light of the recently brokered peace deal, which appears to have eliminated one of Taliban’s contenders, it is more likely that the Taliban finding itself (almost) alone in the field will get emboldened further and become more stringent about the peace process.

In all, the deal brokered with the ‘honorable amir’ of an organization that had killed and affected thousands and thousands of people in Afghanistan generates more suspicion than confidence. Where the track record of Hekmatyar on keeping his promises has been flimsy, the human rights violations committed by him and HEM and the immunity granted from prosecution by the deal thereof has dampened hopes for ‘justful peace’ in Afghanistan.

*Chayanika Saxena is a Research Associate at Society for Policy Studies, New Delhi. Comments and suggestions on this article can be sent on: editor@spsindia.in

The Lesser-Known Pashtun Insurgency In Pakistan – OpEd

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Is it not ironic that two very similar insurgencies have simultaneously been going on in Pakistan for the last several years: the Baloch insurgency in the Balochistan province and the insurgency of the Pashtun tribesmen in the tribal areas of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province bordering the United States-occupied Afghanistan.

The Pakistani neoliberals fully sympathize with the oppressed Baloch nationalists but when it comes to the Pashtun tribesmen, they are willing to give the security establishment a license to kill, why? It’s only because the tribal Pashtun insurgents use the veneer of religion to justify their tribal instinct of retribution.

The name Islam, however, is such an anathema to the core neoliberal sensibilities that they don’t even bother to delve deeper into the causes of insurgency and summarily decide that since the Pashtun tribesmen are using the odious label of the Taliban, therefore they are not worthy of their sympathies and as a result the security establishment gets a carte blanche to indiscriminately bomb the homes and villages of the Pashtun tribesmen using air-force and heavy artillery.

As the well informed readers must be aware that military operations have been going on in the tribal areas of Pakistan since 2009; but do you have any idea that what does the euphemism “military operation” stands for? The Pakistani troops have not been playing a friendly cricket match with the tribesmen out there. A military operation, unlike the law enforcement or paramilitary operations, is an all-out war.

Air-force bombardment and heavy artillery shelling has been going on for several years; the Pashtun tribesmen have been taking fire; their homes, property and livelihoods have been destroyed; they have lost their families and children in this brutal war, which has displaced millions of tribesmen who are rotting in the refugee camps in Peshawar, Mardan and Bannu districts.

I have knowingly used the term ‘Pashtun tribesmen’ instead of ‘Taliban’ here, because this phenomena of revenge has more to do with tribal culture than religion, per se. In the lawless tribal areas, they don’t have courts and police to settle disputes and enforce justice; the justice is dispensed by the tribes themselves: the clans, families and the relatives of the slain victims take revenge, which is the fundamental axiom of their tribal ‘jurisprudence.’

In Pakistan, there are three distinct categories of militants: the Afghan-centric Pashtun militants; the Kashmir-centric Punjabi militants and the transnational terrorists, like al-Qaeda. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which is mainly comprised of the Pashtun militants, carries out bombings against the Pakistani state apparatus. The ethnic factor is critical here. Although the TTP likes to couch its rhetoric in religious terms, but it is the difference of ethnicity that enables it to recruit Pashtun tribesmen who are willing to carry out subversive activities against the Punjabi-dominated state establishment.

Here we must keep in mind that an insurgency anywhere cannot succeed, unless the insurgents get some level of popular support from the local population. For example: if a hostile force tries to foment insurgency in Punjab, it would not be able to succeed; because Punjabis don’t have any grievances against Pakistan. On the other hand, if an adversary tries to incite an insurgency in the marginalized province of Balochistan and the tribal areas, it will succeed because the local Baloch and Pashtun population has grievances against the heavy-handedness of Pakistan’s security establishment.

Notwithstanding, excluding religion, all the diverse and remote regions of Asia and Africa that have been beset by militancy share a few similarities: 1) the weak writ of the respective states in their faraway rural and tribal areas; 2) the marginalization of different ethnic groups; 3) the intentional or unintentional weaponization of militant outfits that have been used as proxies, at some point in time in history, to further the agendas of their regional and global patrons. When religious extremism blends with militancy, it can give birth to strands as deadly as the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, the Boko Haram in Nigeria and al-Shabaab in Somalia.

After invading and occupying Afghanistan and Iraq, and when the American “nation-building” projects failed in those hapless countries, the United States’ policymakers immediately realized that they had been facing large-scale and popularly-rooted insurgencies against the foreign occupation, consequently the occupying military altered its CT (counter-terrorism) doctrines in the favor of a COIN (counter-insurgency) strategy. A COIN strategy is essentially different from a CT approach and it also involves dialogue, negotiations and political settlements, alongside the coercive tactics of law enforcement and paramilitary operations on a limited scale.

The goals for which the Islamic insurgents have been fighting in the insurgency-wracked regions are irrelevant for the debate at hand; it can be argued, however, that if some of the closest Western allies in the Middle East, like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait, have already enforced Sharia as part of their conservative legal systems and when beheadings, amputation of limbs and flogging of the criminals are a routine in Saudi Arabia, then what is the basis for the United States’ declaration of war against the Islamic insurgents in the Af-Pak and Middle East regions, who are erroneously but deliberately labeled as “terrorists” by the Western mainstream media to manufacture consent for the Western military presence and interventions in the energy-rich region under the pretext of the so-called “war on terror?”

Regardless, what bothers me is not that we have not been able to find the solution to our problems, what bothers me is the fact that neoliberals are so utterly unaware of the real structural issues that their attempts to sort out the tangential problems will further exacerbate the main issues. Religious extremism, militancy and terrorism are not the cause but the effect of poverty, backwardness and disenfranchisement.

The Pashtuns are the most unfortunate nation on the planet nowadays because nobody understands and represents them; not even their own leadership, whether religious or ethnic. In Afghanistan, the Pashtuns are represented by the Western stooges, like Karzai and Ashraf Ghani, and in Pakistan the Pashtun nationalist party, ANP, loves to play the victim card and finds solace in learned helplessness.

In Pakistan, however, the Pashtuns are no longer represented by a single political entity, a fact which has become obvious after the 2013 parliamentary elections in which the Pashtun nationalist ANP had been wiped out of its former strongholds. Now there are at least three distinct categories of Pashtuns: 1) the Pashtun nationalists who follow Abdul Ghaffar Khan’s legacy and have their strongholds in Charsadda and Mardan districts; 2) the religiously-inclined Islamist Pashtuns who vote for the Islamist political parties, like the Jamaat-e-Islami and JUI-F in the southern districts of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa; 3) and finally, the emerging new phenomena, i.e. the Pak-nationalist Pashtuns, most of whom have joined Imran Khan’s PTI in recent years, though some of them have also joined the Muslim League.

Additionally, it should be remembered here that the general elections of 2013 were contested on a single issue: that is, Pakistan’s partnership in the American-led war on terror, which has displaced millions of Pashtun tribesmen. The Pashtun nationalist ANP was routed, because in keeping with its supposedly “liberal” ideology, it stood for military operations against the Islamist Pashtun militants in the tribal areas; and the people of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province gave a sweeping mandate to the newcomer in the Pakistani political landscape: Imran Khan and his PTI, because the latter promised to deal with the tribal militants through negotiations and political settlements.

Though Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif both have failed to keep their election pledge of using peaceful means for dealing with the menace of religious extremism and militancy, but the public sentiment was, and still is, firmly against military operations in the tribal areas. The 2013 parliamentary elections were, in a way, a referendum against Pakistan’s partnership in the American-led war on terror in the Af-Pak region, as I have already mentioned, and the Pashtun electorate had given a sweeping mandate to pro-peace political parties against the pro-war ANP.

Moreover, it’s a misperception to assume that the Pakistani security establishment used the Pashtuns as cannon fodder to advance their strategic objectives in the region. Their support to the Islamic jihadists, back in the ‘80s and ‘90s during the Cold War against the erstwhile Soviet Union, had been quite indiscriminate. There are as many Punjabi militants in Southern Punjab as there are Pashtun jihadists in the rural and tribal regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province.

The only difference between these two variants of militancy is that the writ of the state in Punjab is comparatively strong while in the tribal areas of KP it is weak, that’s why the militancy in KP has flared up into a full-fledged Pashtun insurgency. Furthermore, the difference of ethnicity and language between the predominantly Punjabi establishment and the Pashtun insurgents has further exacerbated the problem, and the militants do find a level of popular support among the rural and tribal masses of the Pashtun-majority areas.

Although the leadership of the Pashtun nationalist political parties loves to play the victim card but the fact of the matter is that religious extremism and terrorism have equally affected all the ethnicities in Pakistan, in fact this phenomena is not limited to Pakistan, rather it has engulfed the whole of Islamic World from North Africa and Middle East to Southeast Asia and even the Muslim minorities in China and Philippines have fallen prey to it.

However, without absolving the role of Pakistan’s security establishment in deliberately nurturing militancy in the Af-Pak region and in order to comprehensively identify the real cause of Islamic radicalism, it would be pertinent to mention that in its July 2013 report the European Parliament had identified the Wahhabi-Salafi roots of global terrorism. It was a laudable report but it conveniently absolved the Western powers of their culpability and chose to overlook the role played by the Western powers in nurturing Islamic radicalism and jihadism since the Cold War against the erstwhile Soviet Union.

The pivotal role played by the Wahhabi-Salafi ideology in radicalizing Muslims all over the world is an established fact as mentioned in the European Parliament’s report; this Wahhabi-Salafi ideology is generously sponsored by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf-based Arab petro-monarchies since the 1973 oil embargo when the price of oil quadrupled and the contribution of the Arab sheikhs towards the “spiritual well-being” of Muslims all over the world magnified proportionally.

However, the Arab despots are in turn propped up by the Western powers since the Cold War; thus syllogistically speaking, the root cause of Islamic radicalism has been the neocolonial powers’ manipulation of the socio-political life of the Arabs specifically, and the Muslims generally, in order to appropriate their energy resources in the context of an energy-starved, industrialized world.

Notwithstanding, in the Pakistani socio-political milieu there are three important political forces: the dominant Islamic nationalists; the ethno-linguistic nationalists; and the neoliberal elite. The Islamic nationalists are culturally much closer to the traditionalist, ethno-linguistic nationalists, but politically due to frequent interruptions of democratic process and the martial law administrators’ suspicion towards the centrifugal ethno-linguistic nationalists, the latter were politically marginalized.

As we know that politics is mostly about forming alliances, therefore the shrewd neoliberal elite wooed the naïve ethno-linguistic nationalists and struck a political alliance with them. But this alliance is only a marriage of convenience because culturally both these camps don’t have anything in common with each other. The Islamic nationalists and the ethno-linguistic nationalists belong to the same social stratum and they go through thick and thin together; while the comprador bourgeois are beholden to foreign powers.

Leadership is a two-way street: a judicious leader is supposed to guide the masses, but at the same time he is also supposed to represent the interests and aspirations of the disenfranchised masses; the detached and insular leadership that lives in a fantasy-world of outlandish theories and fails to understand the mindsets and inclinations of the masses tends to lose its mass appeal sooner or later.


Disney Is Not Opposed To Bigotry – OpEd

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Last week, Disney, responding to complaints, pulled a Halloween costume that was branded offensive. The boy’s costume, which depicted Maui, a well respected figure in Polynesian oral tradition, was seen by some Pacific Islanders as akin to blackface; Maui is a character in the upcoming Disney film, Moana. The costume featured brown pants and a long-sleeved shirt covered in tattoos (there was also a skirt made of leaves).

Disney quickly apologized and withdrew the items. “The team behind Moana has taken great care to respect the culture of the Pacific Islanders that inspired the film, and we regret that the Maui costume has offended some. We sincerely apologize and are pulling the costume from our website and stores.”

Disney’s decision to “respect the culture of the Pacific Islanders” stands in stark contrast to its decision to disrespect the culture of Roman Catholics. Specifically, its promotion of “The Real O’Neals,” via its ABC-TV subsidiary, shows how duplicitous the corporation is. Why is Disney showing sensitivity to Pacific Islanders but not Catholics?

How ironic that Disney credits Pacific Islanders for inspiring Moana. And who does it credit with inspiring “The Real O’Neals”? Dan Savage (he is a co-producer of the show). Its second season starts October 11.

As I said in a New York Times op-ed page ad last February, Savage’s “maniacal hatred of Catholicism is so strong that it would be as though David Duke were hired to produce a show about African Americans.” Indeed, his filthy language—aimed at Catholicism—was deemed so bad by the newspaper that it wouldn’t permit me to even use an asterisk in place of letters; his obscene words are a staple in his work.

Disney is obviously not opposed to bigotry, per se. Its selective interest depends on the creed, culture, and color of its characters.

Uptick In Violence in Syria; Islamic State ‘Knows No Boundaries,’ DoD Spokesman Says

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By Lisa Ferdinando

The Defense Department has no reason to doubt reports that Russia and Syria are responsible for a deadly attack on an aid convoy near the Syrian city of Aleppo, the Pentagon’s press operations chief said here today.

Only three parties fly in Syria, Navy Capt. Jeff Davis told reporters at the Pentagon. Those parties, he said, are Russia, Syria, and the counter-Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant coalition.

“It was not the coalition,” he said, explaining coalition members have no reason to fly there because ISIL is not in Aleppo.

“Inasmuch as whether it was Russia or the regime,” he said, “we hold Russia ultimately responsible because Russia is part of the cessation of hostilities.”

Russia, he said, had “agreed to restrain the actions of the Syrian regime, and clearly failed in that regard.”

Twenty civilians were killed in the attack last week against a humanitarian convoy destined for the besieged city of Aleppo, where the United Nations says more than a quarter-of-a-million people are trapped and cut off from food, water, medicine and other essential supplies.

In a Sept. 22 Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Marine Corps Gen. Joe Dunford, said the attack was an “unacceptable atrocity.”

Both Russian and Syrian aircraft were operating in the area the time of the attack, Dunford told members of the Senate panel.

“There is no doubt in my mind that the Russians are responsible. I just don’t know whose aircraft actually dropped the bomb,” the chairman said.

Progress ‘Lacking’ for Joint Implementation Cell

The United States would like to see the creation of a Joint Implementation Cell, where the U.S. and Russia would exchange information on strike targets, according to Davis.

However, for the JIC to be implemented, as outlined in an agreement brokered by the United States and Russia, there has to be a cessation of hostilities and the delivery of aid, Davis noted.

“On both of those points, progress has been, sadly, very lacking,” Davis said.

He noted an increase in hostilities in Syria in recent days, including with both airstrikes and artillery strikes, and an uptick of violence in Aleppo as well as in Hama and areas east of Damascus.

ISIL ‘Knows No Boundaries’

Separately, Davis discussed ISIL’s most recent suspected use of mustard agent in Iraq, saying the terror group “knows no boundaries when it comes to their conduct on the battlefield.”

Initial field tests on fragments from munitions that landed at Qayyarah Air Base were positive for the presence of mustard agent, Davis said. Two other tests were inconclusive, he said, noting further tests will occur.

Davis described the munitions as rudimentary and non-lethal, but said using them is still a violation of international law and standards. ISIL has launched crude, makeshift munitions containing mustard agent at least a “couple dozen” times in the past, he said.

“We recognize this is real,” he said. “They’re dead-set on it — they would love to be able to use chemical weapons against us, [and] against the Iraqis as they move forward.”

U.S. troops are trained and equipped to defend against a chemical attack, he noted. Iraqi forces are being instructed on it as well, Davis added.

“We are making every effort to make sure that we’re ready for it,” he said.

According to Davis, the United States has provided more than 50,000 gas masks to the Iraqi forces — about 40,000 as part of the brigade sets that go to the Iraqi security forces, 9,000 for the Peshmerga, and 1,500 for the Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service.

“We want to make sure that the Iraqi security forces and that the Peshmerga have the ability to detect this and to defend against it,” Davis said, noting coalition strikes have focused on disrupting and countering ISIL’s ability to conduct chemical attacks.

“But I think we can fully expect, as this road towards Mosul progresses, ISIL is likely to try to use it again, so this is something that could happen again,” he said.

Parking While Black: When Police Shoot As First Resort – OpEd

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Now that the Charlotte, NC Police Department has reluctantly released the body cam and squad-car videos in its possession of the police killing of Keith Lamont Scott, which make it clear that nobody knew whether or not Scott even had a gun in his SUV with him, and that he apparently didn’t have one in hand when he exited his vehicle, and did not appear to be threatening anyone, one thing is abundantly clear: Whether he had a gun or not, there wasabsolutely no reason for police to kill him.

Scott’s only “crime” — a common one for frightened or confused people when suddenly confronted, initially in this case by armed plainclothes officers who may not even have identified themselves as policeman, and later by a bunch of shouting, angry armed cops with weapons aimed at him — was to stay put in his vehicle with the doors locked when ordered to get out of the vehicle.

Let’s think about this scene for a moment. Police supposedly got involved in this tragic situation in the first place because Scott pulled up next to a car containing two plainclothes police officers allegedly about to serve a warrant on another man, and proceeded to roll what they thought was a marijuana “joint.” Those officers reportedly claimed that they also saw him holding a gun (how do you roll a joint while holding a gun?). They left the scene in their vehicle and reportedly donned bullet-proof vests and called for backup before returning to the scene. According to Scott’s family, far from posing a threat to police and the community, Scott was at the time doing what he did every school day: waiting peacefully in his car for a young son to return from school on the bus. According to his family, Scott owned no gun and was reading a book, as was his habit.

But let’s assume the worst. Let’s assume for the sake of argument that for one reason or other, Scott actually was sitting in his SUV fondling a joint and a pistol, as police claim. First of all, in North Carolina, courtesy of that state’s right-wing legislature which has made open carrying of sidearms legal, that gun would be perfectly okay. Except that Scott is black, and as far as police are concerned, the state’s law about it being legal to carry a weapon in public on one’s person doesn’t apply to black people. (For blacks in North Carolina, as in other states, having a gun on you, even licensed and holstered, is a capital offense justifying whatever actions police might take, including summarily executing you.)

Okay, so let’s go a step further. Say one of the cops who arrived on the scene actually saw Scott sitting in the truck with a gun in his hand. Nobody has made that claim, but there is the claim that when they came back armed and ready to go after him, he was ordered to step out of the vehicle and to show his hands. When he didn’t do that, an officer, according to the police department’s official account of what transpired, is said to have came up to he car with a baton and reportedly tried to break the truck’s window in order to get the door open.

Now ask yourself, if Charlotte cops honestly thought Scott had a gun in his hand in the car with him, would one of them have walked up to that car door armed with only a baton and tried to break the window? I think we all know the answer to that is a resounding no. One thing we’ve learned about cops in today’s America: They don’t take any risks with their own lives. Like the black officer Brentley Vinson who killed Scott, they shoot first and look later to see if the dead perp actually had a gun.

There are a lot of cars with their windows full of bullet holes and blood on their seats to prove that point.

In any event, the police video shows that Scott then exited the vehicle. Police continued to shout at him as he walked away from them facing backwards to “drop the gun,” though even Charlotte Police Chief Kerr Putney concedes that it is unclear from the video that the slain man was even holding a gun. At that point he is shot four times, fatally.

In the videos released by police there is no evidence of a gun on the ground around the dying Scott lying on the pavement, but MSNBC has shown a slow-motion version of a video taken by Scott’s wife of her husband’s shooting which appears to show the black officer who shot him tossing something on the pavement [2] nearby that looks like it might be a black pistol like the one later claimed by police to be Scott’s.

That shooting was all unnecessary. Sitting in the car as he was, and surrounded by a dozen armed policemen wearing bullet-proof vests, Scott posed no immediate threat to anyone. And get this: His wife was on the scene shouting at police that her husband had a “traumatic brain injury” (from a year earlier motorcycle accident) which should have right away made them more cautious about jumping to conclusions and about terrifying him needlessly, and she was also offering to try and convince her husband to get out of the vehicle as suggested.

Did the police pull back from their assault mode and try to let Scott’s desperate wife talk with him? No, they threatened her and made her stay away. Why?

Would they have done that to a wife if she and the person in the vehicle were white? Again we have to ask this, and my guess would be no. They would have more likely pulled back a bit and given her a chance to talk her husband out of a tough spot.

Again I want to stress that there was no urgency here. Scott wasn’t going anywhere. His vehicle was hemmed in by cop cars, he was locked in it and surrounded by armed police, and if he had tried anything aggressive he would have been shot instantly. So what was the urgency of getting him out of the vehicle? Especially when there was a relative there offering to help?

Unless Charleston’s police department is concerned about paying for unnecessary overtime, there was absolutely no urgency about this situation. It was a in fact an incident that should have been dramatically amped down. There should have been no yelling. Perhaps a trained psychiatrist or negotiation expert should have been called in. The wife of the victim should have been interviewed at length and offered a chance to talk to her husband. If there were fears for her safety, she could have been given a vest herself, or at least a bullhorn so she could talk to her husband from a safe distance. There are, in short, lots of things that could have been done that would have left Scott alive.

Scott wasn’t holding a hostage, and he wasn’t at any point in this whole event pointing a gun at anybody. He was just sitting in his SUV.

Now he’s dead, and Charleston’s Police Department is trying to make that killing look “justified,” by claiming that the mere fact that Scott was holding a joint and a gun — the former a minor infraction, not a crime, and the latter completely legal in North Carolina — together made him a potential threat to police life and limb.

They cannot justify the killing of Keith Scott because it was simply gratuitous. There was no need for him to die.

So now we have a new capital crime: Parking while Black.

Israeli-Palestinian Struggle Returns To The Soccer Pitch – Analysis

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Human Rights Watch (HRW) has accused world soccer body FIFA of allowing FIFA-sanctioned matches to be played on occupied land in the West Bank in violation of FIFA rules and has demanded that the group ensure that future games be staged within the borders of Israel prior to the 1967 Middle East war.

The HRW allegations bring to the forefront longstanding similar assertions by the Palestine Football Association (PFA) that Israel is illegally allowing teams from Israeli settlements on occupied West Bank land to play in Israeli leagues. Palestinian efforts to get Israel sanctioned faded into the background after the Palestine Football Association (PFA) last year failed to muster sufficient votes to suspend the Israel Football Association’s (IFA) FIFA membership.

HRW released its report in advance of a FIFA meeting scheduled for October in which the group is expected to discuss barring Israeli soccer clubs from playing in the West Bank. The Israel Football Association has complained that Tokyo Sexwale, the head of a FIFA committee established to deal with Israeli-Palestinian soccer issues, would be presenting his report without giving the IFA an opportunity to review it.

HRW’s demand that Israeli West Bank teams play in Israel proper potentially muddles issues involving the legitimacy of the settlements and the occupation. By demanding that West Bank settlement teams play on pitches in pre-1967 Israeli territory, HRW effectively accepts Israeli settlement policy.

The demand further leaves Israeli military policy that restricts Palestinian access to Israeli settlements unchallenged. HRW may have been better served by demanding that Israeli settlement teams be barred from competition in Israeli leagues and be included in Palestinian ones. Such a demand would have clearly differentiated between Israel proper and the West Bank, put pressure on Israel’s military to reverse discriminatory policies, and put the PFA on the spot in terms of including settlement teams.

PFA President Jibril Rajoub unsuccessfully tried to persuade FIFA at its congress in Mexico in May to ban Israel from allowing teams from Israeli settlements to play in Israeli leagues. Mr. Jibril identified five settlement teams competing in Israel: Beitar Givat Ze’ev, Beitar Ironi Ariel, Ironi Yehuda, Beitar Ironi Ma’aleh Adumim and Hapoel Bik’at Hayarden. Sixty-six members of the European parliament this month backed the PFA demand in an open letter to FIFA.

The PFA and IFA’s position reflect the views of their respective governments. Palestine, supported by a majority in the international community views the West Bank as territory occupied by Israel for the past 49 years since it was conquered during the 1967 war. The IFA justifies participation of settlement teams in its leagues on the ground that the West Bank is disputed territory whose future has yet to be determined.

The HRW campaign against the Israeli settlement teams came as Palestine Authority President Mahmoud Abbas told the United Nations General Assembly earlier this month that he would put forward a Security Council resolution that would condemn the Israeli outposts. Without mentioning the United States by name, Mr. Abbas called on Washington not to veto the resolution.

US President Barak Obama reportedly raised with Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu on the side lines of the General Assembly “profound US concerns about the corrosive effect that that (settlements) is having on the prospects of two states.” Settlements are expected to feature prominently in a framework for Israeli-Palestinian peace talks Mr. Obama may put forward before leaving office in January. Israel has increased the construction of settlements by 40 percent this year compared to last year.

The battle between Israel and Palestine in FIFA is a forerunner of likely similar confrontations in multiple international organizations as Palestine seeks to force Israel to halt its settlement activity before engaging in any new negotiations to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

FIFA was the first international organization to accept Palestine as a member without it being an internationally recognized state. Growing international unease, including in the United States, Israel’s foremost ally, has however paved the way for Palestine to build on the FIFA example and apply to a host of UN organizations, including the International Criminal Court, as a member state.

HRW Israel and Palestine Authority director Sari Bashi argued that FIFA in the wake of adopting a human rights policy earlier this year, was not applying to Israel its rules and past practices in similar situations such as Crimea, Nagorno Karabakh and the self-declared northern Cypriot state.

European soccer body UEFA in 2014 rejected the move of Crimean clubs from Ukrainian to Russian leagues following Russia’s occupation of the territory. UEFA said Crimea would be considered a “special zone for football purposes” until the conflict has been resolved.

Similarly, FIFA has refused to recognize Northern Cyprus which unilaterally declared itself independent following a 1974 Turkish invasion or the predominantly Armenian enclave of Nagorno Karabakh that is part of Azerbaijan but occupied by Armenia. The denial of recognition meant that teams from the two territories are barred from FIFA competitions and not allowed to participate in leagues of the occupying nation.

A report commissioned by FIFA and written by Harvard professor John Ruggie, the author of the United Nations Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights (UNGP), which outline the human rights responsibilities of businesses, advised the soccer body to adhere to the principles.

The HRW report asserts on the basis of the fact that both Israel and Palestine are members of FIFA that “by allowing the IFA to hold matches inside settlements, FIFA is engaging in business activity that supports Israeli settlements, contrary to the human rights commitments it recently affirmed.”

HRW said that “doing business in the settlements is inconsistent with these commitments.” It said that “settlement football clubs provide part-time employment and recreational services to settlers, making the settlements more sustainable, thus propping up a system that exists through serious human rights violations… The clubs provide services to Israelis but do not and cannot provide them to Palestinians, who are not allowed to enter settlements except as labourers bearing special permits. Because of this, football teams, for example, operating in the settlements, are available to Israelis only, and West Bank Palestinians may not participate, play on the teams or even attend games as spectators.”

The report noted that in the case of sports club Givat Ze’ev, “the IFA, and therefore FIFA as well, are holding matches on a playing field that was rendered off-limits to its Palestinian owners, two families from neighbouring Beitunia who were unable to access their land after Israel built the settlement in 1977 and prevented Palestinians from entering it. The Palestinian town of Beitunia has lost most of its agricultural land because of Israeli military orders barring access and physical barriers.”

The issue of soccer teams from Israeli settlements on the West Bank has been gaining traction in recent months. A petition organized by advocacy group Avaaz and signed by 150,000 people demanded that Mr. Sexwale “uphold FIFA’s own rules and provide fair recommendations to evict Israeli settlement teams from FIFA. There should be zero tolerance for the six teams that flagrantly ignore international law and operate in occupied territory. Settlement football teams legitimise the illegal occupation and condones the suffering the Palestinians face as a result,” the petition said.

In comments to HRW on the report, Shay Bernthal, chairman of the Ariel Football Club, a West Bank settlement team, insisted that the clubs were not discriminatory or racist. While HRW was referring to West Bank Palestinians in its assertions of discrimination, Mr. Bernthal noted that Palestinians with Israeli citizenship played for settlement teams much like they play for squads in Israel proper.

“You did not mention that the collaboration between me and clubs from the sector [Arab citizens of Israel] is excellent. You did not mention the club’s activities against racism and violence, and you did not mention what concrete action I took to try and promote peace: a game against a Palestinian club, having two Muslim players on my adult team and more,” Mr. Bernthal said.

IFA legal advisor Efraim Barak, responding to the report and contacts between the IFA and Ms. Bashi, employed the fiction upheld by all international and national sports associations that sports and politics are separate.

“We make no distinction between any of the Israeli football teams that are active in the IFA and have players from different nationalities and backgrounds playing together in comradery and full cooperation, regardless of where the clubs are located. The same holds true for clubs located in places whose final status is to be determined,” Mr. Barak wrote in what is an inherently political statement that aligns the IFA with Israeli government policy.

American Public Problem – OpEd

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Too many things are going wrong inside the USA in this election year. On Friday night, a gunman killed four women and a man in a shooting at a Macy’s store at Cascade Mall in Burlington, about 65 miles north of Seattle. After a massive manhunt, the suspect was arrested in Oak Harbor at around 6:30 p.m. on Saturday while walking down the street. He was identified as Arcan Cetin (20), an immigrant from Turkey — a legal permanent resident of the United States who lives in Oak Harbor, according to police. The Sheriff’s office described the suspect – “He was kind of zombie-like.” He seems to be a mental health patient who faced three assault charges in domestic violence cases in 2014 (but not convicted). Officials previously said it appears the gunman, reportedly a Hispanic male wearing grey, acted alone and they have no indication it was terrorism. Now that the identity of Cetin is known, they are not ruling out bringing terrorism charges.

On the other hand, the act of Dahir Ahmed Adan, the Somali young man accused of going on a stabbing spree at a Minnesota mall over the last weekend is considered a terrorist act. The 20-year-old from St. Cloud allegedly stabbed 10 people before being shot dead by an off-duty police officer, ending what authorities called a “potential act of terrorism” at the mall Saturday (9/17/16). Fortunately, none of the 10 people wounded suffered life-threatening injuries. While an ISIS-affiliated media outlet claimed the attacker was a “soldier” of the terror group, no evidence has emerged to suggest ISIS or Daesh had a hand in planning or executing the attack.

In the meantime, recent police-involved shootings of the Blacks reveal that in spite of the civil rights movement of the 1950s and 1960s not much has changed. Violent protests have erupted in some parts of the USA centering the unnecessary death of Terrance Crutcher after his SUV stopped in a roadway last week. Crutcher can be seen with his hands raised above his head prior to his death. He walks away from the police officer towards his car. There was no weapon found in his car. Tulsa police officer Betty Shelby was charged last Thursday with felony manslaughter in the 1st degree for his murder.

Last Tuesday (9/20/16), Keith Lamont Scott, another Black man and a father of seven, was shot to death in Charlotte, NC, by another police officer, at an apartment complex parking lot. It has spurred protests in Charlotte over the past four nights with angry protesters chanting: “No tapes; no peace.” Rioting killed one protester, shattered windows and rattled finance executives whose salaries boost the city’s median income to $10,000 above the national average.

The status of the videos held by police — body camera and dash-cam footage — has been a point of contention between police and Scott’s family, with authorities declining to release them throughout the week. However, a few minutes ago, this Saturday evening, a body-cam video has been released by the police (with the first 23 seconds of the audio silent). The other released dash-cam video shows the actual shooting. These two separate videos, however, fail to explain why Scott’s life was to be lost by police shooting.

Scott’s widow released her cell phone recording of the shooting — the first to be released publicly — on Friday. “Don’t shoot him. He has no weapon,” Rakeyia Scott can be heard saying in the footage. The first portions of the shaky video appear to show a number of police officers surround a vehicle in a parking lot. Rakeyia Scott is heard saying, “He doesn’t have a gun. He has a TBI (traumatic brain injury).” [Scott’s family has said he was disabled after being in a near-death motorcycle crash last year.] She is also heard pleading with the police not to shoot her husband, “He’s not going to do anything to you guys. He just took his medicine.” And yet, he was killed, according to police, by an officer after Scott had failed to heed commands to drop a gun. His family has said he didn’t have a gun. One wonders if this sad event be de-escalated!

Such ‘trigger-happy’ shootings are not uncommon in the USA. In the mid-1990s, as Charlotte pushed to become a world-class city, its leaders cracked down on crime with a heavy-handed police force. Longtime African-American residents remember James Cooper, a 19-year-old black man killed by a white officer in 1996 as he reached back in his car window during a traffic stop to check on his 4-year-old daughter. The officer said he thought he had a gun.

The black community has been left feeling justice was not served. Jonathan Ferrell was a 24-year-old unarmed black man shot 10 times by white officer Randall Kerrick. Ferrell had just crashed his car in a suburban neighborhood and banged on a neighbor’s door looking for help. She (the neighbor), however, called 911.

Charlotte police charged Kerrick with voluntary manslaughter one day later. But the jury couldn’t reach a unanimous verdict at his trial, and state prosecutors decided not to retry the case. There were peaceful protests then, which prompted headlines like, “How Charlotte Avoided Ferguson’s Fate.”
As the protesters marched in Charlotte this past week their pain has just been made worse by recent shootings in Tulsa, Oklahoma; Baton Rouge, Louisiana; and elsewhere.

This Saturday, President Obama officially opened the new National Museum of African American History and Culture in the capital that through thousands of artifacts captures the 400-year long history of African-Americans in this country. He said the $540 million museum represented a “common journey towards freedom”. “The very fact of this day does not prove that America is perfect, but it does validate the ideas of our founding – that this country born of change, of revolution, of we the people, that this country can get better.”

Just as the lynching murder of Emmett Till in 1955, exhibited now in the museum, helped spark the civil rights movement, could the death of Crutcher and Scott spark a new movement in the 21st century? We may not know the answer yet.

There is little doubt, however, that America is polarized these days along racial and ethnic lines. Many whites, esp. southerners, have discovered their new messiah in Trump to transform ‘America great’ again! They are emboldened by the prospect of this casino and real estate mogul – whose well-known racism and bigotry that they have embraced – winning the coming presidential election. Their anger is often vented against minorities. And as you will notice below from my own experience the past week they are seemingly not ashamed of showing their ugly side.

I have been a frequent flyer for more than a decade. Last Monday, I was in an American Airlines flight (AA 5606) to Savannah, Georgia. The flight was late by almost two hours and I was hungry. During the flight, when the main cabin air-hostess, Nicole, was serving juice/drinks to the passengers, I asked her if I could buy snacks for my lunch. She replied that there was no snack available to sell. Minutes later, however, when she proceeded to serve a couple – who were sitting two rows in front of me – they asked of snacks to buy. Nicole told them that she could sell them for credit card only. When the couple said that they had only cash and no credit card, she did not mind giving them two lunch snack packs for free. I was simply stunned to see such a naked demonstration of bias from a white air-hostess!

My return flight AA 5606 to Philadelphia was on time last Friday. However, during my flight I encountered the same discrimination from another white air-hostess (who was assigned to the first class cabin). After serving the first class cabin passengers, she came to assist her colleague serving drinks and cookies/pretzels in the main cabin where I was seated in an aisle seat. She asked the passengers on my both sides about their choice, but ignored me totally, as if I did not exist. Then she went on to serve rows behind me, while I stared at her with disbelief. When she was returning to the first class cabin, I asked her for the reason of ignoring me. She replied, “You were sleeping.” I could not believe that she would tell a lie to excuse her unprofessional behavior; I was all awake and occasionally was glancing at her – hoping that she would ask me about my choice of fruit juice. She did not apologize for her rude behavior.

What’s America coming to these days? As a frequent flyer with the American Airlines, I probably need to rethink my choice of flying American the next time I travel.

But more importantly, American citizens need to come to grips with the ugly reality that is poisoning their environment. Anger is building up on all sides, and sometimes it is oozing out unpleasantly.

Many White Americans, especially those living in the southern states feel that ultra-liberal values of the powerful and vocal 1% – living mostly in the northeastern and the western states – have been pushed down the throats of the ‘silent’ 99% to digest. They are upset with the Obama administration for passing such controversial laws. Many white conservatives, including women, are thus flocking to Trump’s camp in spite of the latter’s sexist and degrading remarks about women. The ‘rigged’ politics of yesteryears – run by and for the politicians – is challenged by their new avatar – a shrewd and immoral businessman – who is making them dream for a better future. They are dismissive of Trump’s fascist leanings and are willing to take a chance with him to ‘fix’ things and make ‘America great’ again. They are equally oblivious of the fact that demagogues rise to power on the backs of workers, citizens, and average “Joe” or “Jane.”

For the minority blacks, the distrust of the police runs very deep. They continue to be racially profiled by the police and are harassed routinely. Obama’s presidency has not made much of a difference in their lives. William Barber, president of the North Carolina NAACP, notes, “When people work two jobs but don’t make enough to own a home, they get discouraged, and seeing video after video of black men dying makes them lose hope and start to wonder if they matter to society.” Under such circumstances, as we have noticed with the army veteran Micah Johnson in Dallas this summer, some will fight back, and kill before getting killed.

Some highly vulnerable youths are disturbed by the news of daily violence in the TV and the Internet that they read or see faced by their fellow people in war-torn countries. Some are self-radicalized by propaganda messages that incite them to choose death over life.

Many minorities, esp., Muslims, have lost jobs in recent months as a result of America’s untiring and noxious heritage of hatred, discrimination, racism and bigotry. As psychologists would say it won’t be irrational to suspect that the terrorist acts of guys like Mateen, Adan and Rahami (and even Tamerlane Tsarnaev) were motivated more by their uncontrolled resentment at losing jobs than any ideology. The ‘land of opportunity’ had simply failed them to earn an honest living!

Sociologist Charles Kurzman has recently stated in the USA Today (September 22, 2016) that terror fears are out of proportion to risks. Since 9/11, only 118 people in the USA became victims of terrorism – perpetrated by Muslims. In the same 15-year period more than 230,000 Americans have been murdered by their fellow Americans; thus, terrorist victims of Muslims accounted for only 0.05%. Yet, because of American obsession with terrorism, Muslims are demonized for the crimes of the few in their rank.

Trump, like many of the ultra-right, anti-immigrant, racist and bigot leaders of our time, has been able to exploit their worst fears and emotions. But, is Trump to be blamed solely for his evil tactics?

“America, truly, has more than a ‘Donald Trump’ problem. More ominously, we have an American public problem,” argues Anthony DiMaggio, an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Lehigh University, “that cuts to the very core of the quality of our democracy.” “If Donald Trump is enjoying electoral success, it’s because the public – passively or actively – allowed it to happen. What makes Trump’s case more disturbing than the norm of across-the-board voter ignorance is that such a large contingent of Americans know full-well about his bigotry, and embrace it. The ascendance of Donald Trump tells us much about the quality of American character – particularly about our enduring and toxic legacy of hate, ignorance, bigotry, and white-supremacy,” writes Anthony DiMaggio.

White supremacy never disappeared from America’s political culture, and DiMaggio opines that hate culture has returned with all its ugliness.

To understand the depth of the American public problem, just consider the facts below.

Public Policy Polling (PPP) found that in August 2015, 54 percent of Republicans, and 61 percent of Trump supporters still believed Obama was born in another. In May 2016, a PPP poll found 65 percent of Trump supporters said Obama was a Muslim and 59 percent said he was born outside the U.S.

A Reuters-Ipsos June 2016 survey, for example, found that 58 percent of Trump supporters said they held a “somewhat unfavorable” or “very unfavorable” view of Islam. This type of blanket hatred is troublesome when Pew Research Center polling finds that the vast majority of American Muslims reject terrorism, and hold moderate, rather than extreme political values. A Texas Policy Project poll from June 2016 also found that 76 percent of Republicans “somewhat supported” or “strongly supported” a blanket ban of Muslims from entering the U.S.

Seventy percent of Republicans agreed in an August 2016 Pew survey that “undocumented immigrants are more likely to commit serious crimes.” This view persists, despite statistics from the Public Policy Institute of California concluding that immigrants actually commit fewer crimes than U.S. citizens.
Reuters polling from June 2016 finds that nearly half of Trump supporters agree that African Americans are more “violent” and “criminal” than whites. Similarly, 40 percent say African Americans are more “lazy” than whites. These findings are prominent on the reactionary right, despite social scientists’ longstanding findings that race is not a significant predictor of Americans’ level of commitment to work, or hours worked, and despite the reality that the vast majority of whites, African Americans, and Hispanics are employed.

American public problem can only be defeated by restoring American sanity. And American sanity cannot be restored in the vacuum. It needs tangible results that better the life of ordinary people of all races and religions. The media have a serious role to bust those popular myths that are at the heart of the American public problem, propagated by hateful hosts and preachers that want Americans to embrace fascism over democracy, division or segregation over unity, and supremacy over equal rights for all. The results of the November election will show how well they have succeeded in this crucial task.

Damaging Democracy: The US, Fethullah Gülen, And Turkey’s Upheaval – Analysis

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By Michael A. Reynolds*

(FPRI) — On July 15, 2016, elements of the Turkish Armed Forces attempted to overthrow the elected government of Turkey and to capture or kill its president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Calling themselves the “Council for Peace at Home” (Yurtta Sulh Konseyi), the mutineers moved into action just after 10:00 pm. They deployed tanks and infantry on key bridges in Istanbul; seized the state television channel TRT; took the chief of the Turkish General Staff, General Hulusi Akar, hostage in Ankara; dispatched a unit to hunt down Turkey’s president in the resort town of Marmaris; and employed fighter jets and attack helicopters to strike government targets, including the Turkish Parliament, the Special Operations Command, the General Security Directorate, and the headquarters of the Turkish National Intelligence Organization, among others.

The rebels failed, however, to paralyze the government or Turkish society, and opposition swiftly emerged. Just a little over an hour after the operation began, Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım appeared on television to inform the Turkish public that some sort of illegal intervention was underway and would be resisted. General Akar’s steadfast refusal to go along with the mutiny blocked the rebels from securing the passive support of the armed forces, and some loyal units in the armed forces and the police resisted outright. At roughly half past midnight, a visibly shaken but coherent President Erdoğan spoke through a smart phone on live television as he flew to Istanbul and called on the Turkish people to pour into the streets in protest against the putsch. The state Directorate of Religion played a notable role in this effort to rally support for the government by instructing Turkey’s 110,000 imams to use their minarets to broadcast a rarely used prayer to galvanize resistance to the putsch. Indeed, the notion of defending Islam motivated many, probably most, of those in the streets although it should be noted that opposition to the coup attempt spanned virtually the entirety of Turkey’s otherwise fractious political spectrum.

Loyal units ultimately suppressed the coup attempt, but not before much blood had been shed. Fighting lasted over the course of several hours and resulted in the deaths of 272 people, including 171 civilians, 63 police officers, 4 soldiers, and 34 rebels. Government authorities arrested or detained 17,184 military personnel, 6,066 police officers, 4,757 prosecutors, and 782 civilians.[1] That this failed putsch amounted to a critical episode in Turkish history goes without saying. At the same time, by reflexively framing the mutiny within the Turkish Republic’s long history of military interventions—the country witnessed four successful military interventions between 1960 and 1997—analysts in the United States and elsewhere have greatly underestimated its significance for Turkey, its neighbors, and the U.S. The defeat of the putsch gives cause for only modest relief. Contrary to what many early accounts in the West intimated, the plotters mobilized over ten thousand armed men and demonstrated a chilling willingness to kill for their cause by opening fire on crowds, executing resisters, and mounting air strikes with jet fighters and attack helicopters on multiple targets. They were nothing like the feeble-hearted Communists who mounted a putsch against Gorbachev twenty-five years ago. Nor, however, was the Turkish population willing this time to sit passively. Tens of thousands took to the streets of Ankara and Istanbul. They were predominantly men, and, as noted above, they more often than not steeled themselves with a vision of religious struggle. Thus, had the mutineers succeeded in capturing or killing Erdoğan, winning over the Turkish military, and toppling the ruling Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi or AKP), the result would not have followed in the pattern of earlier coups in Turkey where a quick consolidation of military rule inaugurates a brief period of military governance followed by a voluntary transition back to democratic civilian governance. Instead, a successful putsch would almost certainly have triggered a civil war, and one that would have likely acquired a religious dimension. Turkey is already embroiled in a chronic and increasingly bitter struggle with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (Partiya Karkerên Kurdistanê or PKK) and another escalating fight against the Islamic State. Civil war would have converted Turkey from a buffer against refugee flows—Turkey is host to nearly 3 million refugees from Syria alone—to an exporter of refugees, which would have dire consequences for the political stability of a Europe already grappling with a dissolving European Union and surging populism.

Most significantly, the July 15 putsch did not represent a routine attempt by a secular Turkish officer corps to forcibly reset their country’s politics to a previous status quo. The putschists’ assumed name notwithstanding—“Peace at Home” comes from one of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s signature aphorisms—their bid for power represented, in fact, the latest battle in what has emerged as a fierce struggle for dominance between two rival wings of Turkey’s Islamists. The Turkish government calls the organization behind the failed mutiny the Fethullah Terror Organization (Fethullah Terür Örgütü or FETÖ). This label is unfortunate for two reasons. First, FETÖ bears no resemblance to any conventional terrorist organization insofar as up until July 15, it had not, to the best of my knowledge, employed violence as a means to affect or to sway public opinion along the lines of a typical terrorist organization like al Qaeda or the Islamic State. It has not conducted bombings, public assassinations, or hostage-takings. Second, FETÖ, arguably, threatens the integrity of the Turkish state and the health of Turkish democracy more insidiously than any terrorist group could hope. Whereas terrorists strike at the state from the outside in the hopes of disorienting and delegitimizing it, FETÖ penetrated the state from the inside and managed to take control of law enforcement agencies, the judiciary branch, and revenue agencies, among others. With total contempt for the law, they abused their positions and power in the state to destroy their enemies and any who would stand in their way.

FETÖ is named after Fethullah Gülen, a Turk and religious figure who presides over a network of schools, test centers, media outlets, banks, and businesses that spans five continents. Gülen has resided in the U.S. for the past 17 years. Here, his followers run, among other enterprises, approximately 140 charter schools that bring in an estimated annual income of $500 million from American taxpayers. As The New York Times and other newspapers have documented, Gülen’s schools in the U.S. have been the subjects of repeated scandal and of FBI investigations into immigration visa abuse, kickback schemes, test fraud, and other alleged crimes and violations in numerous states including Texas, Pennsylvania,[2] Georgia, Virginia, and Ohio.[3] Indeed, these schools had grown so notorious for deceit and wrongdoing that the agenda-setting national television news program 60 Minutes aired an exposé on them in May 2012.

Turkish officials accuse Gülen of far more than systemic deception. They contend that FETÖ is nothing short of a “parallel state” that has been subverting the Turkish Republic from within towards the goal of overthrowing the country’s elected government. The attempted putsch of July 15, 2016 was only its most recent and violent effort. For nearly the past three years, Ankara has made crushing FETÖ its top priority, even above defeating the Kurdistan Workers’ Party or the Islamic State. Toward that end, it has dismissed, detained, and arrested many tens of thousands of individuals; shut down Gülen-affiliated schools, businesses, and organizations; and seized their property. It has undoubtedly crippled the Gülen network, but Ankara has yet to achieve a decisive victory, primarily because the leader and center of the movement, Mr. Gülen, resides safely in the U.S. beyond the reach of Turkish law. Belief that Gülen stands behind the July 15 putsch is by no means a personal obsession of a paranoid President Erdoğan. It is a conviction shared across the political spectrum in Turkey, even by many of Erdoğan’s critics, some of whom have been warning for years that Gülen and his movement constitute an imminent threat to Turkish democracy. It is surely a great irony—or tragedy—that the United States, a country that had made the promotion of democracy in the Middle East and elsewhere the focus of its foreign policy, may not merely have failed to spread democratic rule in the greater Middle East, but may actually have helped to subvert and to weaken the most important democracy in the Middle East.

The Religious-Secular Divide and the Rise of the Parallel State

In the spring of 1999, I was in Istanbul conversing with a Chechen friend, whom I’ll call Hamza. He was a student at Istanbul University and had been living in Turkey for five years. We were discussing Turkey and its future, and I was unusually interested in his opinions. In addition to being of high intelligence and a speaker of flawless Turkish, Hamza was a devout Muslim. The question of religion in Turkey was especially fraught in those years, and Turks on both sides of the divide found it difficult to discuss the issue with detachment. Tensions were rising between the secular Kemalist elites, who had dominated the republic since its inception in 1923, and the self-described religious. Unlike the American understanding of secularism, the Turkish understanding of secularism laid down by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk holds not that religion should be free of the state, but instead, that it should be tightly supervised by the state.

Many Turks believed that it should be Islam guiding the state rather than the state corralling Islam. These Turks, the Islamists, had been gaining in strength over the decades despite efforts by the ruling elites to block them at the ballot box and even keep them out of politics altogether. Just three years earlier, in 1996, an Islamist Party, the Welfare Party (Refah Partisi), had managed to enter the ruling government through a coalition in what was an unprecedented achievement for them. Shortly thereafter, in 1997, however, the Turkish General Staff, the watchdogs of Kemalist secularism and nationalism, warned that if the Welfare Party was not ejected from the government, they might intervene. It was no idle threat: Turkish military officers had overthrown the government on three earlier occasions. The warning proved sufficient to bring down the government and trigger the banishment of the Welfare Party and its leader, Necmettin Erbakan, from politics. Banishment had become a routine experience for Turkey’s Islamists, and so a number of Erbakan’s followers, including the promising former mayor of Istanbul, Recep Tayyıp Erdoğan, opted to try another strategy and established a political party—the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi or AKP)—in 2001 that formally disowned any programmatic Islamism.

Hamza believed that unless there was a change in Turkey’s politics, a civil war between the Islamists and Kemalists within the next decade was likely. To forestall such a possibility and to maintain the unity of the armed forces, the Turkish officer corps rigorously scrutinizes their own for any hints of ideological deviance from Kemalism. The process starts with extensive screening of school-age officer candidates. Those from overtly religious or Kurdish families, for example, are excluded. The scrutiny continues throughout an officer’s career. The behavior of officers and even their family members’ is monitored. An officer’s scrupulous avoidance of alcohol would raise suspicions. A wife who took to wearing a headscarf would end her husband’s career. At its annual review every August, the Supreme Military Council (Yüksek Askeri Şura or YAŞ) promotes trustworthy officers and expels those who have given cause for doubt. Hamza had heard that with the officer corps closed off to them, Turkish Islamists had instead begun joining the ranks of the national police.

Since Hamza moved among religious Turks, I asked him how he saw the religious-political divide in the country. The divide was real, he explained, and it was widening. Even in the army, the fortress of Kemalist power and discipline, the divide could be felt. Pious conscripts went off to the army determined to assert their religiosity. For example, he said, in an act of defiance against their officers, they would shout “Allahu Akbar” (God is great) on training exercises. As a foreigner, of course, Hamza had not witnessed such disobedience, and what he heard may have been exaggerated. Even as staunch secularists, many Turkish military officers identified proudly as Muslims. The Turkish Armed Forces formally always regarded their country’s Islamic heritage as a positive resource for cultivating a martial spirit among their soldiers. In the right context, they would heartily approve a shout of “God is great” from their soldiers, but Hamza’s interlocutors were describing something different: a creeping and conscious insubordination among the ranks.

“So by taking over the police, the Muslims,”—for Hamza, Muslim and Islamist were synonyms—“will at least have some weapons and organized units on their side in case it comes to war?” “Yes, apparently that is the idea,” Hamza answered. “That is better than nothing, I suppose, but the police will be no match for the army in pitched battles,” I said. “But don’t forget the conscripts. They won’t all obey their officers,” Hamza parried.

I never forgot that conversation with Hamza and particularly the claim about Islamist penetration of the police. Lightly armed police are no match for an army in pitched battle, but what neither Hamza nor I grasped at the time was that outside of war an army is no match for police. Armies are unsurpassed in employing mass violence, but, in peacetime, the police hold the monopoly on detainments and arrests and so are the decisive force.

There is perhaps no better illustration of the superiority of the police than the wave of investigations, arrests, trials, and convictions that struck the officer corps of the Turkish Armed Forces and other Kemalist cadres beginning in 2007. A stunned population looked on in a mix of horror and fascination, exhilaration and confusion as police officers and detectives took into custody and prosecutors put behind bars over three hundred senior military officers, opposition lawmakers, journalists, prominent academics, and others on charges that they were involved in a massive conspiracy to destabilize Turkey and to overthrow the ruling government.

The notion that some conspiratorial network, or, as the Turks call it, “deep state” (derin devlet), made up of select senior military officers, police chiefs, intelligence operatives, and crime bosses might be influencing Turkish politics was familiar. The Susurluk Scandal of 1996 in which a parliamentarian and Kurdish militia head, a police chief, an ultranationalist crime boss, and a beauty queen were riding together in a car until it crashed and killed the latter three had been haunting Turkish politics ever since. It had demonstrated conclusively that elements of the police, politicians, and organized crime were in fact collaborating. Many Turks wondered how much more was going on.

Still, no one in 2007 could have imagined that a network as large and as diabolical as what police and prosecutors then were claiming. Breaking many of the news stories about the investigations was a newly founded newspaper, Taraf. It had cloudy financing, but its journalistic staff had impeccable liberal credentials. The allegations were fantastical. The network, known as “Ergenekon,” allegedly was preparing to agitate and to manipulate the Turkish public through bombing mosques, assassinating politicians and celebrities, and even downing Turkish air force jets—all for the purposes of creating a climate of panic and fear to justify the overthrow of the government. Moreover, officials asserted, Ergenekon had, for years, already been orchestrating terror campaigns on all sides of the political spectrum, from the Kurdish left to the ultra-nationalist right and everywhere in between. Prosecutors placed over 274 individuals on trial for alleged ties to the network. In 2010, Turkish officials opened a similar trial that charged over 300 people with involvement in another related anti-government plot code-named “Sledgehammer” (Balyoz).

The reason why the Turkish public in 2007 could not have anticipated the existence of a network quite so large and so complex, however, was not their lack of imagination. Rather, it was the reality that the investigations were shams. The impossibly gargantuan scale of the alleged Ergenekon conspiracy alone should have provoked skepticism, but those prosecuting the investigation and sympathetic media outlets played on the suspicions, hostility, and prejudices that Turkey’s Islamists shared with Turkish liberals, leftists, and human rights activists against their country’s nationalist secular establishment, thereby managing to deceive much of the public for a time. Western journalists were only slightly less credulous.[4] Following the cues of their liberal interlocutors in Turkey, those journalists refrained from sharply questioning the narrative of an out-of-control ultranationalist and secularist establishment illegally undermining the elected AKP government.

Not everyone, however, was taken in. One of the first to raise fundamental questions about the trials was the Harvard academic Dani Rodrik. Although not a student of Turkish politics by profession but an economist and scholar of global investment and trade, Rodrik took an interest in the trials because his father-in-law, General Çetin Doğan, had become one of their major suspects. Casting a critical eye on the trial proceedings, Rodrik together with his wife Pınar Doğan recognized that multiple pieces of evidence presented at the trial were bogus. Independent forensic experts later established that, indeed, many were blatant—and sloppy—forgeries. Documents that prosecutors claimed had been created by members of the Ergenekon network were riddled with anachronisms that conclusively betrayed their fraudulent nature. For example, they named organizations that had not yet even come into existence, were written in fonts that Microsoft invented only several years after the documents’ purported composition, or had been prepared using software that had not yet been released.[5]

Such barefaced falsification notwithstanding, the trials concluded in the conviction and sentencing of over five hundred individuals. Since virtually all those charged and later convicted had been life-long opponents of Islamism, they found little to no sympathy among AKP members, many of whom had throughout their political careers chafed under laws that restricted the use of religion in politics and any challenge to secularism. Erdoğan himself had served time in prison for reciting poetry with religious imagery to mobilize his followers, an act that authorities judged to be inflammatory. The failure of the AKP government and its liberal allies to step outside their prejudices and question the egregious abuses of the Ergenekon and Sledgehammer investigations dealt a severe blow to the rule of law in Turkey.

Matters changed radically, however, when investigators began to turn against Erdoğan and those around him. In February 2012, a special prosecutor summoned the head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (Milli İstihbarat Teşkilatı), Hakan Fidan, for questioning about his participation in peace talks with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. Rumors of Fidan’s impending arrest began to fly. The summons was a bold challenge to Erdoğan, who had handpicked Fidan for this sensitive post and had subsequently tasked him to lead secret and highly delicate talks with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party in the hopes of ending that organization’s nearly four-decade long insurrection and resolving Turkey’s gnawing Kurdish Question.

At this point, Erdoğan and his circle began to fear that what they described as a “parallel state” was moving to bring them down just as it had brought down the senior military leadership and other prominent Kemalists in the Ergenekon and Sledgehammer trials. By a “parallel state,” what they meant was a network of officials inside the state who were loyal to themselves and their leader and were abusing their positions to pursue their own agenda. Indeed, through blatantly unethical and illegal stratagems, such as manipulating duty assignments and promotion rosters and leaking the answers to entrance and qualifying examinations to the favored applicants, that parallel state organization was packing state institutions with its own loyalists and pushing aside and keeping out those who were not their own.  This parallel state was not merely subverting the control of the elected government, it was taking over the state itself.

The Rise of the Gülen Movement

The locus of this parallel state group’s loyalty was a soft-spoken spiritual figure who, since 1999, has lived in the Poconos Mountains of Pennsylvania.

To foreigners, the charge rings outlandish, even delusional. Americans, in particular, find the mere notion of something nefarious in a place like the Poconos almost laughable. It is, by no means, however, the product of Erdoğan’s imagination. That spiritual leader, Fethullah Gülen, left Turkey in 1999 in order to avoid arrest. Turkey’s General Staff strongly suspected Gülen of seeking to undermine Turkey’s secular order by, among other things, insinuating his followers into the officer corps. That charge, at the time, sounded exaggerated to many and the product of an intolerant, even paranoid, mindset among Turkey’s secular elites.

Gülen was born in 1941 in the province of Erzurum, a region with a culture distinctive even in Turkey for its masculinity and sober piety. He followed in his father’s footsteps to become an imam. In 1966, he took a position at a mosque in the Aegean port city of Izmir. Early in his career, he demonstrated ambitions beyond the conventional role of imam. He acquired renown as an effective and charismatic imam and began to build a following. Gülen’s public persona was not the Islamic equivalent of a fire and brimstone preacher, but quite the opposite: a soft-spoken and somewhat emotional, occasionally mawkish, cleric who would start crying during his sermons. Turks who preferred their Islam a bit sterner ridiculed Gülen—and often his followers—as effete and even effeminate.

Not content with preaching to his congregants merely to observe the ritual laws and moral strictures of Islam, Gülen urged them to pursue collaborative projects in fields outside the narrowly religious. He placed a special emphasis on education. Turkey, he argued, was in greater need of schools than mosques. He called upon his businessmen followers to pool their resources and to build schools, and he encouraged his young male followers to become teachers to staff the schools and to teach the new generations.

Over the course of the next four decades, Gülen and his followers would build up a network of well over 1,000 schools from preschools to universities in over 150 countries, together with countless test preparation centers, charitable organizations, and businesses ranging from schools and stationery supplies through major media companies to large financial houses. From interviews with Gülen’s followers in Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, and several other locations in Turkey in 2004, I came away especially impressed by the way his organizations tied together Turks of all classes from the most impoverished and defenseless, such as orphans and abandoned children, all the way up to some of Turkey’s wealthiest individuals.

During the course of the interviews, it became clear that the center or heart of the movement was Gülen himself. Members spoke of him with reverence and affection calling him “Master Teacher” (Hocaefendi). It was his personality much more than simply his ideas that had attracted and motivated so many. Given the central role of Gülen, the movement has often been described as a “cult.” Some of Gülen’s followers believe that the Hocaefendi is also the Mahdi, or messiah-like figure in Islam who will come at the end of times.

The movement, which, at that time already controlled many hundreds of schools, universities, newspapers, journals, radio and television stations, and much else besides in Turkey and around the globe, had two pillars. One was legions of businessmen—small, middling, and large-scale. These were men—and they were virtually all men although the movement in other fields did mobilize women—who were pragmatic and successful, but also well meaning and eager to do works to benefit their communities and others. Private philanthropy was not well developed in Turkey, where the idea of the state as an all-powerful guardian and provider was strong. Gülen provided an outlet for their philanthropic instincts (as well as connections and more opportunities for business). Gülen’s stress upon modern education resonated with them. By making regular donations and tying their businesses to the movement’s projects, businessmen provided tremendous financial power.[6]

The other pillar was the teachers; these were educated and talented young men. The Gülen schools placed a large emphasis on teaching English and the sciences. With their skills, these men could easily have embarked on remunerative careers in the rapidly growing Turkish economy. Instead, motivated by their belief in Islam and inspired by Gülen, they willingly worked long hours for miserly salaries.

Gülen’s enthusiasm for education was not original. An emphasis on the need for Muslims to engage with modern education and master the natural sciences, in particular, has been a hallmark of modernist Islamist movements from the 19thcentury onward. The most influential Islamic thinker in Turkey in the 20th century, Bediüzzaman Said Nursî (1877-1960), was an ardent advocate of combining modern scientific education with religious instruction. Only by recovering their lost tradition of scholarship and scientific inquiry, Nursî argued, could Muslims regain the prosperity and security they had enjoyed earlier in history. Nursî’s teachings helped shape Gülen’s worldview.

A Golden Generation to Save Turks from the Turkish Republic

Gülen, however, placed a far greater emphasis than Nursî on action and on changing the public sphere[7] Thus, he had another, more instrumental, interest in schooling. A fundamental and consistent goal of Gülen’s has been to raise a “Golden Generation” (Altın Nesil), a generation of ethically pure and devout youth who would restore the spiritual values that Turkish society has lost. Like many religious Turks, Gülen attaches a special significance to the Ottoman Empire because he sees it as a major chapter in both Islamic history and the history of the Turks. Indeed, he believes that Turkish civilization peaked with the Ottomans in the 16th century. As he told his followers, in the four centuries since that time, “we [Turks] have left nothing but rot.” He casts a skeptical eye on the achievements of Mustafa Kemal and the founders of the Turkish Republic. Although these men may have salvaged a sovereign Turkish state from the wreckage of the Ottoman Empire after World War I and avoided direct colonization by Europe, they adopted too much from the West: “We saved our material [possessions], we saved our bodies, but our hearts remained in someone else’s hand.”[8]

To reverse this course of events, Gülen wants his followers to become a “savior generation” (kurtarıcı nesil). They are not to wait for passive redemption, but are to go forth to “conquer” both what is inside and what is outside of them.[9] To create that generation, Gülen, early on, decided to invest in education. Schools, of course, are perhaps the most powerful institutions that shape individuals outside of the family. They are also ideal venues for recruiting talented youth and for reaching the families of those youth. Beyond that, and not least important, in modern society, schools, tests, and examinations act as critical gateways and sorting mechanisms by defining who can enter given careers, bureaucracies, and circles of influence. If, as Stalin proclaimed, “Cadres decide everything!” then schools and exams decide the cadres.

In order to comply with Turkish laws and regulations on secularism, Gülen’s schools disavowed proselytization in the classroom.  When I asked whether a movement so fired by the message of an imam could be so indifferent to the religious and moral formation of the students in its schools, Gülen’s followers explained that the examples set by the teachers—upright and clean-living men dedicated to their students—served as the primary means of moral instruction to students and parents alike. I have no doubt that this is very true. Conversations with former students, however, revealed that the process of religious formation was not quite so hands-off. Outside of the classroom, after hours, or in the quarters where students stayed, teachers or more senior students would organize prayer circles and monitor the activities and preferences of students, discouraging them from reading harmful books or wasting time on idle pursuits. Gülen-run dormitories, known as “Lighthouses” (Işık Evleri) around Turkish universities, operated similarly.[10] This regulation of behavior was not unusual. Other religious organizations in Turkey also offer what is effectively subsidized housing in exchange for extramural religious study and adopting approved patterns of behavior. Indeed, this phenomenon is by no means exclusive to religious organizations, either inside Turkey or outside. The movement does seek to inculcate in its more core members a profound reverence for Gülen, a belief in the sacred nature of the movement, and an intense in-group loyalty. One former high-ranking member explained in 2009, well before its break with the AKP, that the movement’s ethos of internal obedience and sacred purpose bred in its members a powerful self-righteousness and a habit of distrusting and dismissing external criticism as the product or either ignorance or malevolence. “And amid this detachment” from outside views and opinions, he warned, “the movement justifies any conduct to achieve its ends at any cost.”

For most of its existence, the Gülen movement eschewed referring to itself as a collective entity for much the same reason as Gülen would routinely disavow any active leadership: to put outsiders at ease. Members would describe their entrance into the movement as the time when they entered “service” (hizmet). Several years ago, when the extent of their network became impossible to deny, they began referring to themselves as the “Hizmet Movement” or simply “Hizmet.”

But it was Gülen’s leadership and his followers’ boundless energy and devotion that brought the movement astounding success in managing its schools, its media operation, and its business interests—all on a global scale. The movement’s structure has been described as “a graduated network of affiliation” with a hierarchical core community, an “expansive loose network of ‘friends,’” and an outer ring of sympathizers.[11] Given the variation in degrees of association, estimates of membership are inherently inexact, but the figure of 5 million is a fair one. The movement has built a worldwide network of schools from pre-kindergarten to universities and a business empire that is worth between 20 and 50 billion U.S. dollars.

When Gülen and his followers embarked on expansion inside Turkey, they sought to allay the anxieties of Kemalists by explaining that their version of Islam was a peculiarly “Turkic” form of Islam rooted in mysticism and Turkic traditions. They presented it as both alien to “Arab” Islam and as a natural buttress to Turkish nationalism and anti-Communism. Fortuitously, the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 allowed the Gülen movement to conduct its first major expansion abroad in the Turkic republics of the former Soviet Union. As the movement expanded beyond Turkic countries and restrictions on Islamic activism at home disappeared, it dropped its pretense that its fundamental goal was to promote a uniquely Turkic understanding of Islam.

Wherever the movement established schools, it established business ties as well. Where the teachers were to make sacrifices, businessmen affiliated with the movement were to make profits and to plow some of them right back into the movement. Taking advantage of the economic liberalization begun under Turkish prime minister and later president Turgut Özal, Gülen’s organization began to grow rapidly in the 1980s. It did not ignore the media and acquired a full spectrum media presence with radio and television stations alongside print media inside Turkey and outside. The flagship of its media effort was the newspaper Zaman. Established in 1986, Zaman became Turkey’s largest circulating daily within twenty years. It had a formidable presence on the web and was published in 11 different countries.

The Gülen movement strives to project an anodyne and nonthreatening image. As part of its public relations campaign, the organization makes heavy, saccharine use of inoffensive buzzwords such as harmony, coexistence, peace, and dialogue. This public image both helped to deflect critics and to attract allies, particularly liberals for whom such words and concepts were like catnip. The movement eagerly brought Turkish liberals aboard its media operation. By giving those liberals platforms from which they could criticize Turkey’s military and the secular establishment for faults real and imagined. This was highly unusual for an Islamist movement. In exchange for associating itself with liberals, the movement secured significant levels of credibility and trust from observers inside Turkey and the West.

A decade ago, the movement was justifiably proud of its achievements. It was also eager to show them off to researchers, like me, or to others who might one day wield influence in society in Turkey or abroad. The dedication, intelligence, and energy of the movement’s members and fellow travelers at all levels were palpably genuine. The willingness to share information, however, had definite limits. Questions about decision-making, the movement’s internal structure, or financing were met with defensive silence. That did not entirely surprise me. I expected that any independent, faith-based organization in Turkey would have cultivated a preference for some secrecy and discretion toward outsiders given the history of antagonistic relations between the state and religious groups. But with the electoral triumphs of the AKP in 2002 and 2007, the pious no longer needed to fear the scrutiny of secularists. Moreover, with the Gülen movement having grown into a global educational, media, and business empire, an embrace of greater transparency could have been expected.

Concerns about the movement’s secrecy were not unique to academic researchers. In 2009, while conversing with a member of Azerbaijan’s State Committee on Relations with Religious Organizations, I asked for his thoughts on the Gülen movement. Azerbaijan faces unique challenges in the sphere of religion. It is a secular republic recovering from the Soviet suppression of religion, and a Eurasian country with a mixed Sunni and Shia population sandwiched between the Islamic Republic of Iran to the south and Dagestan, the epicenter of Sunni extremism in Russia, to the north. Azerbaijan is a virtual neighbor of Turkey and shares close linguistic and cultural ties. Hizmet began operating there right after the fall of the U.S.S.R. and was quite active there having its own university and a local edition of Zaman. After first explaining that he believed the Gülen personnel, their emphasis on personal morality and social harmony, and their activities in the fields of education and philanthropy were exemplary, he confessed that he found their penchant for secrecy worrying.

The Azerbaijani official was hardly alone. Inside Turkey, officials had been sounding alarms. The Gülen movement’s efforts to infiltrate the state since at least 1986 when the military expelled 66 cadets from three military high schools under suspicion that they were followers of a religious brotherhood: Gülen’s. The cadets, between the age of 14 and 16, had been instructed by their spiritual mentors, “Until you become a staff officer, keep your mouth closed and do not reveal yourself. Pray with your eyes [i.e. not with the full body as normally required by Islam]. We will take Turkey in the 2000s.” The incident revealed key characteristics of the Gülenists’ modus operandi. Using their network of test preparation centers and schools as recruitment nodes, they would identify promising young students. They would proceed to cultivate these students by assigning to each an “elder brother” (or “sister” in the case of girls) who would look after their spiritual development outside of class. Free tutoring for university entrance exams and free tuition were among the incentives they offered. To the families of talented but impoverished students, they could supply more direct material assistance.[12] They were careful, however, to leaven their religious lessons and indoctrination with activities like picnics and screenings of karate films and other activities that would appeal to young boys. After university, the movement would provide its recent graduates with jobs in the private sector or in government bureaucracy.

The Turkish military watched the growth of Gülen’s movement with unease and began to suspect a link between Gülen and the United States. According to one American, a private citizen who was advising the Turkish military on financial matters during the mid-1990s, Turkish generals repeatedly and indignantly complained to him that Gülen was “America’s Frankenstein.” Whereas the military maintained a wary eye on Gülen and blocked most of his efforts to penetrate their ranks, Turkish police formations proved easier targets. Already by the late 1980s and early 1990s the movement was successfully placing its members into the police.[13]

It seems likely that Turkish authorities did not watch passively but made their own efforts to penetrate the movement in turn. In 1999, a video recording of Gülen openly explaining to his followers how they must infiltrate the state surfaced. In the now infamous video, Gülen instructed his followers to move unnoticed throughout the state until the right time. If they acted prematurely, he warned, they risked repeating the mistake of the Muslims in Algeria in the 1990s, in Syria in 1982, and in Egypt every year. By coming out and challenging the state before they were ready, these Muslims were met with defeat and tragedy:

You must move in the arteries of the system without anyone noticing your existence until you reach all the centers of power . . . until the conditions are ripe, they [Gülen’s followers] must continue like this. If they do something prematurely, the world will crush their heads, and the Muslims will suffer an experience like that in Algeria. They will bring about a calamity like Syria in 1982. They will bring about a disaster and calamity like the disasters and calamities that happen in Egypt every year. The time is not yet right. You must wait for the time when you are complete and conditions are ripe, until we can shoulder the entire world and carry it . . . You must wait until such time as you have gotten all the state power, until you have brought to your side all the power of the constitutional institutions in Turkey . . . Until that time, any step taken would be too early—like breaking an egg without waiting the full forty days for it to hatch. It would be like killing the chick inside. The work to be done is [in] confronting the world on a small scale. . . . Now, I have expressed my feelings and thoughts to you all—in confidence . . . trusting your loyalty and secrecy. I know that when you leave here—[just] as you discard your empty juice boxes, you will discard the thoughts that I expressed here. [14]

Gülen’s supporters protested that the video had been doctored although they offered no evidence about how they knew this. Since the failed putsch, two more highly compromising videos of Gülen have come to light. Both are of uncertain provenance. In one, he boasts haughtily that he had begun planning to overcome the Turkish state at age 20 and that such a task is child’s play for someone like him. In the second, apparently shot shortly after the putsch, he mocks those Turks who took to the streets to oppose the putsch as a “herd of jackasses” and vows that Erdoğan “will pass into the sewers like the others.”

Gülen Flees to America

Fearing that the military was determined to get him and that his arrest was imminent, Gülen fled Turkey for the United States in 1999. America, it might seem, would be an unlikely place for a Muslim revivalist with a global presence, but Gülen was no typical revivalist. The brand of Islam that he advertised to outsiders—with its emphasis on morality over ritual, harmony, and tolerance over doctrinal purity, knowledge of the English language and natural sciences over rote recitation of the Quran—and his ostensibly pro-democratic stance was all too seductive for some American policymakers and analysts. It was like something out of their dreams: an interpretation of Islam that was evolving on its own to become “moderate,” pro-Western, and pro-democratic.

During the Cold War, Americans had enjoyed some success in mobilizing Islam against Soviet-backed socialist movements—most famously in Afghanistan, but also in Turkey and elsewhere. As the former CIA officer and one of Gülen’s most enthused backers, Graham Fuller, wrote, “The policy of guiding the evolution of Islam and helping them against our adversaries worked marvelously well in Afghanistan against [the Russians] [sic]. The same doctrines can still be used to destabilize what remains of Russian power, and especially to counter the Chinese influence in Central Asia.”[15]

The American success with Islamism in Afghanistan was, in fact, modest—a tactical alliance dependent on a shared antagonism to materialist communism more than a mutual commitment to any values. Upon the evaporation of the communist threat, the Americans found their influence on Muslim movements fading. Gülen stood out as a major exception. He desired to come to the U.S. and had not only a huge following in the geopolitical linchpin that is Turkey, but also a growing global presence. Thus, Fuller, joined by another former CIA officer, George Fidas, and a former American ambassador to Turkey, Morton Abramowitz, lent their backing to Gülen’s application for residency. Although the courts rejected Gülen’s application in 2006 and 2008, he managed nonetheless to obtain permission to continue residing in the United States.

Following the rise of the AKP in 2002, the Gülen movement’s room for maneuver inside Turkey widened enormously. Most of the AKP leadership, including Erdoğan, got their start in the so-called “National Vision” movement under Erbakan and thus espoused a more conventional Islamist program with a greater stress on the desirability of applying Islamic law and greater suspicion of the West. Yet in the context of Turkish politics, Hizmet and the AKP were ideological allies joined by a common commitment to the restoration of Islamic values to Turkish society. Moreover, they complemented each other functionally. The Gülenists provided the cadres of nominally reliable technocrats and educated personnel that a new outsider party like the AKP needed to staff the state bureaucracies, and the AKP gave political cover to the Gülenists. Although they are now loath to admit it, Erdoğan and the AKP leadership eagerly staffed the government with Gülenists.

With the AKP in power, Gülen’s people no longer had to infiltrate the state through stealth. They were now in control of the gates. They wasted little time in asserting their grip. Inside the police and other bureaucracies, they worked to fast-track the rise of their own by manipulating assignments and appointment rosters while also recruiting ambitious colleagues. Serving police officers quickly came to understand that their careers depended on their willingness to observe communal religious obligations, such as ritual prayer and fasting, and to collaborate with Hizmet. To stack future cohorts with their loyalists, Gülenists rigged civil service examinations and language tests, including TOEFL tests by feeding the answer-keys to fellow Hizmet members.

That the victory of the AKP in 2002 deeply worried Turkey’s hardcore secularists is no secret. But even the more paranoid among the officer corps and Kemalist civil servants probably never knew what hit them when the Ergenekon and Sledgehammer investigations were launched in 2008 and 2010. Although Gülen had regarded the 1980 military coup with favor, he and his followers saw the staunchly secularist General Staff as an opponent and were determined to neutralize it as a political actor. The so-called “soft” or “post-modern” coup of 1997, when a warning from the General Staff forced the Islamist Welfare Party out from the government and set in motion the party’s closure, had a catalyzing effect on Turkey’s Islamists. As noted above, it propelled a so-called “reformist wing” of former Welfare Party members under Erdoğan to break ranks and found the AKP. Gülen’s followers used the soft coup as a touchstone for a popular television drama series that depicted Turkey as a country in the grip of a nefarious conspiratorial alliance of unprincipled military officers, Kemalist bureaucrats, crime figures, and others—the Turkish “Deep State.”[16] In retrospect, one cannot but help to think that they were using the series to prime the Turkish public for the impending scandals. Life imitates art, or, as now seems likely, life was being made to imitate art.

As mentioned above, Dani Rodrik was one of the earliest to sound the alarm about the Gülenists’ subversion of the law, but he was not a lone voice. An especially powerful exposé of Gülenist activities came from a career police chief named Hanefi Avcı. Notably, Avcı was not a Kemalist, but a conservative Muslim. His 2010 book, The Simons Who Live Along the Golden Horn (Haliçte Yaşayan Simonlar),[17] provided an insider’s account of how the Gülenists were organizing inside the police to secure their control and engaging in unauthorized wiretapping and surveillance, among other illegal activities. The reaction was swift. If Avcı thought his whistleblowing would win him a hero’s welcome, he was woefully mistaken. The Gülen machine turned on him, and he found himself arrested, tried, convicted, and sentenced in 2013 for 15 years.

Avcı’s fate was not unique. In 2010, two journalists, Ahmet Şık and Ertuğrul Mavioğlu, were indicted for publishing a two-volume work that was critical of the Ergenekon investigation. Prosecutors charged Şık and Mavioğlu with “breaching confidentiality” and asked for jail terms of four and a half years despite the fact that the material in the book was already publicly available. In March 2011, police again arrested Şık. They charged him with being a member of Ergenekon, but made sure to confiscate a draft manuscript that he was writing for a book to be entitled The Imam’s Army (İmamım Ordusu). The manuscript sought to explain how Gülen’s followers had come to dominate the Turkish Directorate of Security and was slated for publication within a month. In order to make sure that his findings reached the public, Şık released the manuscript in digital format on the Internet under the title 000Book – The One Who Touches, Burns (000Kitap – Dokunan Yanar). One hundred twenty-five other journalists, academics, and activists attached their names as editors of the book in an act of solidarity with Şık. The first part of the title underscored the book’s status as an unfinished draft; the second part referred to Gülen and the implicit threat of Hizmet—who ever dared touch the subject of Gülen would get burned. Şık uttered those words as the police took him away.

Although the courts eventually cleared Şık and Mavioğlu in May 2011 of the charges levied against them regarding their first book, the authorities continued to hold Şık in jail until March 2012. Upon his release, he fielded questions from the press, and in the course of speaking, offered the prediction that, “the police, prosecutors and judges who plotted and executed this conspiracy will enter this prison.” Construing those words as defamation and threat of civil servants, prosecutors in July of that year yet again indicted Şık. Şık in response castigated the Gülenist police officıals for abusing their offıcial powers and the AKP for remaining silent in the face of such abuse.

The trials and travails of Avcı and Şık aroused substantial interest among the Turkish public. The Imam’s Army was downloaded over 100,000 times and was later published in hard copy. Notably, however, Gülen media outlets offered not a single word in the defense of either. When the sociologist Binnaz Toprak published research that called into question the way the Gülen movement regulates the daily lives of its followers, Gülenist media made no attempt to spar intellectually with her, but instead mounted a sustained campaign to discredit her. As the respected journalist Ruşen Çakır has noted, the experiences of Avcı, Şık, and Toprak revealed that behind its rhetoric of tolerance, dialogue, and harmony, the Gülen movement operated as a fearsome organization that answered to no one and could and would bully, intimidate, and crush its critics and opponents,  dispatching them to jail on trumped up or manufactured charges.  As The New York Times put it, it had created a “climate of fear” around it in Turkey.

The Gülen movement did indeed appear unstoppable, and perhaps, its members felt that way. For reasons that remain unknown, tensions between them and Erdoğan grew, and they turned against Erdoğan. The aforementioned summons issued to Intelligence Chief Hakan Fidan was one harbinger. Initially Erdoğan’s team ridiculed rumors that Gülenists were taking control of the state. However, in 2013, when Erdoğan proposed outlawing university test preparation centers and cram schools, it was clear that the battled had been joined. Such centers were both a critical vehicle for recruitment of talented youths and lucrative sources of revenue, and closing them would cripple the Gülen movement. Gülen’s followers struck back hard. In December 2013, police arrested 24 men for involvement in a major corruption ring. Among those arrested were the sons of three of Erdoğan’s cabinet ministers. The ministers resigned, but Erdoğan and other AKP figures accused “dark forces” and “an illegal organization formed within the state” of waging “deliberate psychological warfare” against the government and vowed to fight back. Erdoğan fired and reassigned hundreds of judges, prosecutors, and police officers. Although no one doubted that Gülenists were again behind the investigations, some AKP supporters still found it difficult to believe that their former ally could have turned against the government, and they surmised that rogue elements inside the movement were at work. Rüşen Çakır, however, concluded at the time that it was quite clear that Gülen was in firm control of the anti-government campaign.

With Erdoğan unfazed and still determined to uproot the movement, Gülen’s people wheeled in their heavy artillery to attack the prime minister himself. In February 2014, someone using the name “Chief Thief” (Başçalan) uploaded to YouTube recordings of telephone conversations wherein Erdoğan warns his son that the police are about to raid their home and that he should move the stored cash immediately. The son, in turn, complains that there is too much money—tens of millions of Euros—to move so quickly. The incident did tremendous damage to Erdoğan’s already tarnished image, but it failed to topple him. Erdoğan stood firmly unrepentant, dismissing the recording as a montage. Although he presented no real evidence to indicate that it was a fabrication, his electoral base remained solidly behind him.

Gülen’s Residence in the U.S.

With the conflict now direct and personal, Erdoğan was determined more than ever to uproot and destroy the “parallel state.” An infuriated but clever Erdoğan turned the conflict to his advantage. On the campaign trail, he pointed to the specter of a conspiracy inside the state run by foreigners. In stump speeches, he repeated the exotic sounding word “Pen-seel-van-ya,” drawing out its pronunciation and using it as shorthand to underscore both the nefarious essence and foreign ties of Gülen. For American ears, the Poconos calls up images of hokey vacation fun, but to Turkish ears, “Pennsylvania” rings something more like “Transylvania”—dark, foreign, and foreboding.

The question of why Gülen is in America has been confounding Turks since well before July 15, 2016. Although Gülen’s arrival in the US shortly preceded his indictment in Turkey in 1999, Gülen and his followers insisted that the fragile state of his health necessitated his relocation to the United States. They further depicted his exile as unfortunate and undesired. Just five years into that exile, Gülen was already describing those years as the most “bitter” of his life. Yet in an interview in 2005, Gülen acknowledged that politics, not medicine, kept him out of Turkey and that his exile was not compulsory: his return to his homeland might be politically destabilizing and so he believed he should wait. Even after a Turkish court in 2006 acquitted him of all charges, he continued to pursue permanent residence status in the US.

Gülen’s application was controversial. He based his claim to residency on his status as an “alien of extraordinary ability” in the field of education. This was despite the fact that he had earlier repeatedly disavowed playing any direct role in the establishment or management of schools, slyly averring that he may only have “inspired” certain people to establish schools. The U.S. Center for Immigration Services found this wholly unpersuasive and categorically rejected it. As lawyers representing the Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff observed, Gülen has no degree or training in education and had authored no scholarly works. To the contrary, they argued, “the evidence submitted by plaintiff [Gülen] indicates that, far from being an academic, plaintiff seeks to cloak himself with academic status by commissioning academics to write about him and paying for conferences at which his work is studied.”[18] It was an accurate assessment. Gülen, however, had influential backers. Among those who endorsed Gülen’s petition were, as previously mentioned, two former CIA officers and a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey. His application ultimately won approval.[19]

Journalists routinely describe Gülen’s compound in the Poconos as “secluded.” An equally accurate but more informative description might be “conveniently located.” Saylorsburg, Pennsylvania is close to the New York-Washington, DC corridor. By placing his compound there, Gülen has put himself in a location that both shields him from Turkish authorities and that is well-suited to managing his global network of schools, businesses, and faith organizations.

The allure of Gülen to U.S. policymakers is easy to understand. In spite of maintaining a close—and mutually beneficial—relationship since the end of the Second World War, America and Turkey have never enjoyed warm relations. The reasons for this are manifold and are found on both sides, but among those reasons is the persistence of anti-Americanism across the Turkish political spectrum from the revolutionary left to radical Islamist right, including the secular nationalist establishment and the military in between. As heirs to Mustafa Kemal, these have been zealous defenders of Turkey’s sovereignty and have habitually regarded the U.S., like other great powers, with wariness and even suspicion. Gülen, who combined an authentic Turkish Muslim identity with ostensibly pro-Western credentials, offered a beguiling alternative. Assisting him to facilitate the ascendance of a more pliable and pro-American elite in Turkey likely appeared as an attractive policy option, even a no-brainer. Moreover, at a time when the United States is bogged down in armed conflicts throughout the Muslim world, the idea that America could host the leader of a dynamic and growing global network of ostensibly pro-Western, pro-democracy Islamists verges on the fantastic in its appeal. If Gülen could succeed in convincing his fellow Islamists in his own country of his reliability and utility, how difficult could it have been to do the same to Americans?

Gülen and the Crisis in Turkish-American Relations

To what extent Gülen’s presence in the U.S. reflects a clear policy preference or just a general sympathy for “moderate” Muslims cannot be known outside the offices that authorized Gülen’s relocation to the U.S. What can be said with certainty is that his presence in the U.S. massively complicates American relations with Turkey. Ankara is demanding his extradition and threatening a rupture in relations if the U.S. does not follow through. This insistence is not a matter of Erdoğan’s or anyone else’s personal pique. A stunning 81.5% of Turks want him to be returned, and nearly as many—77.7%— regard Gülen and his sympathizers as a threat to the present order and future of Turkey. Gülen is in disfavor not because he is a dissident, but because the great majority of Turks believe that he has been subverting their state, played a key role in a violent attempt to overthrow their government, and is a tool of foreign interests. In the face of such an overwhelming public consensus on a matter of such magnitude, it will be very difficult for Washington over the long term to sustain the status quo in its relationship with its fellow NATO ally. Moreover, it is worth remembering that Turkish-American tensions are not limited to the case of Gülen. American military cooperation in Syria with a subsidiary militia of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)—The Kurdish People’s Protection Units (Yekîneyên Parastina Gel or YPG)—an existential threat to Turkey, constitutes another combustible issue.

Erdoğan, for numerous reasons, is unpopular in Washington, where he is seen as an ungrateful and unhelpful ally and as an overbearing authoritarian. Indeed, so low is Erdoğan’s favor in Washington that some Americans in the immediate wake of the coup suggested that Erdoğan might have engineered the coup himself to justify eliminating his rivals. The idea that Erdoğan or anyone else could stage-manage an armed uprising that included pitched gun battles and the deaths of a few hundred individuals reveals a faith in human capacity beyond that of all but the most dedicated conspiracy theorists. Similarly, the suggestion that the rapidity with which the government sacked so many people must reveal prior planning rests on unfamiliarity with recent Turkish politics. For the past three years, the government has been locked in battle with Gülen and his followers. Officials were already working to identify and expel Gülenists from state offices before the coup. Indeed, credible rumors that the General Staff was preparing to dismiss a large cohort of Gülenist officers at the upcoming annual meeting of the Supreme Military Council likely prompted the July 15 putsch as a desperate last ditch effort to preserve the Gülenists’ remaining presence in the security apparatus.

he rhetoric of U.S. and European officials and observers in the wake of the coup was, at best, inept. The plea that American President Barak Obama uttered during the putsch for “all sides to act within the rule of law” did not merely sound hopelessly silly—imploring violent mutineers to obey the law!—but its neutrality and implicit recognition of the mutineers as a party no less legitimate than the elected government they were seeking to overthrow came across as mischievously sly, even sinister.

Protests by U.S. Central Command Chief General Joe Votel and U.S. National Intelligence Director James Clapper that key American interlocutors in the Turkish military were among those purged or arrested were no less softheaded than Obama’s gaffe. They implicitly suggested that the preferences of American military and intelligence officials should take precedence over the physical security of the Turkish government and population. Their words not only projected heedless arrogance, but, unfortunately, also bolstered suspicions that indeed Washington did harbor sympathies for the putschists.

The mix of adjurations and warnings from Americans and Europeans to President Erdoğan and Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım to restrain the purges of suspected Gülenists were worse than useless. Aside from their poor timing and careless phrasing, they were based on two false premises. The first is that the post-putsch crackdown amounts to a “witch hunt”—a search for something that exists only in the imagination. If there is one thing that the putsch made clear, it is that organized underground forces really do exist and are ready and willing to use violence and illegal means to overthrow the government. The most immediate lesson Erdoğan and others in the government can take from the failed coup attempt is not that they should ease up and err on the side of leniency and grant suspects the benefit of the doubt, but precisely the opposite: they have been too gentle with the Gülenists, and it nearly cost them their lives.

It should be emphasized that this is not the sole lesson that the government can or should take from the putsch. Perhaps the prime lesson the AKP (as well as their quondam liberal and other allies) should take is that their past collusion with Hizmet in subverting the law and the legal processes weakened and fractured the Turkish state and thereby left all exposed and vulnerable. Former Chief of the General Staff İlker Başbuğ had warned Erdoğan that Hizmet would come after him, but Erdoğan brushed off his warnings.

In its current crackdown, the government stands a good chance of replicating and compounding its earlier errors. Gülen’s movement is a large and sprawling network built up over the course of four decades with a major presence in multiple fields, including, but not limited to, education and media. Nonetheless, the stunning scale of the crackdown, with close to 100,000 people affected, is excessive. Only the inner circles of the movement and select followers could have had knowledge of the putsch. The majority of Gülen affiliates, such as the teachers and students, are likely guilty of nothing more than having had the desire to improve their personal spiritual and/or material conditions. Indeed, the revelations of the movement’s subversive and malevolently duplicitous behavior have, according to one long-time observer of the movement, disillusioned many of Gülen’s close followers and provoked internal dissension and turmoil. To be sure, there is always the possibility that the movement could in the future tap into the residual loyalties of members in influential or critical positions. But with the movement now crippled, albeit not vanquished, the greater danger in any effort to root out Gülen affiliates entirely is to entrench alienation. As Hanefi Avcı, one of the Gülenists’ most vigilant critics, now warns, punishing people on the margins of the movement will breed unnecessary bitterness and resentment and, still worse, further sunder what little trust remains in a fractured and polarized Turkish society. Among these are journalists like Şahin Alpay, Ali Bulaç, and Nazlı Ilıcak, who wrote for Gülen-funded publications, but are not Gülenists. Even less defensible have been the warrants and dismissals issued for others who have no association with Hizmet, but are sharply critical of the AKP. These include journalists Yavuz Baydar and Can Dündar, and academic Candan Badem. Although it is politically expedient for Erdoğan and the AKP to blame the U.S. for the rise of Gülen, no amount of deflection can erase the truth that they themselves played the largest role in elevating Hizmet within the Turkish state. A recent report issued by the opposition Republican People’s Party (Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi or CHP) in September on the crackdown makes precisely these points: the AKP helped bring on its own fate and now risks repeating some of its previous mistakes.

American policymakers are hardly in a position to lecture Ankara. At a minimum, they are guilty of negligence for not investigating and monitoring the activities of Gülen more thoroughly before and during his residence in the U.S. That Gülen was a man of immense influence and that Turks for decades had been sounding alarms about him and his agenda were facts known to all; indeed, they were precisely why the U.S. government granted Gülen residence.

Ankara has formally requested the extradition of Gülen. Before U.S. officials will hand him over, there are a number of conditions that American law requires to be fulfilled. Ultimately, the decision will lie with the American judiciary. Nonetheless, the President and State Department play critical roles in the process. The Americans involved in the process should take the following points into account. Although it is not yet clear how exactly the coup was planned or who led it, there is virtually no doubt that Gülenists were involved. Ankara will do a great deal to strengthen its case for Gülen’s extradition the sooner it presents precise evidence of his role, but as former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey James Jeffrey has contended, the putsch attempt was a sophisticated plot requiring “a very well organized, disciplined, ideologically-based group in the military. The only group that meets those criteria that I can think of would be Gülenists.” It is certainly possible that Gülenists might have acted without Gülen’s knowledge or direction, but in such a grave matter as a coup, it is highly improbable.

An experienced British observer of Turkey recently described the Gülen movement as a “movement defined, if such is possible, by obfuscation.” Its colossal obfuscation notwithstanding, the Gülen movement has left behind a documented track record of subterfuge and criminality in both Turkey and the U.S., among other locations. The damage Gülen’s followers did to Turkish democracy and rule of law in the Ergenekon and Sledgehammer investigations alone is staggering and incalculable. Never did Gülen chastise his followers for their deception or attacks on their critics, nor did he or his followers apologize for their wrongdoing. As his surreptitious remarks on video reveal, Gülen has, for decades, cultivated a mindset and modus operandi that is contemptuous of the law and people alike. Finally, and not least important, Gülen and his many of his followers shamefully repaid the hospitality shown to them by breaking U.S. laws and regulations not once or twice, but systematically in one state after another. The American people owe nothing to Gülen.

Fears that extraditing Gülen will strengthen Erdoğan, promote authoritarianism, and thereby undermine what remains of Turkish democracy are among the reasons for a notable lack of enthusiasm in Washington for extradition. American officials would do well to reflect on the fact that by harboring Gülen with the goal of supporting “moderate Muslim democrats” and promoting the proliferation of democracy, America has already inflicted substantial, albeit inadvertent, damage to the leading democracy in the Muslim world and a former, rare pillar of stability in the Middle East. In the meantime, it has entangled itself to an unnecessary degree in a muddy intra-Islamist conflict in which it will always be at a severe disadvantage to understand and operate effectively. The sooner it drops the pretense that it understands the real interests of Turkey better than the Turkish citizens themselves, the better off we will all be.

About the author:
*Michael A. Reynolds
is a Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Program on the Middle East and is an Associate Professor in Princeton University’s Department of Near Eastern Studies where he teaches courses on modern Middle Eastern and Eurasian history, comparative empire, military and ethnic conflict, and secularism.

Source:
This article was published by FPRI

Notes:
[1] The figures for deaths, arrests, and detainments come from Dakika Dakika FETÖ’nün Darbe Girişimi (Ankara: Anadolu Ajansı, 2016), 4.

[2] Martha Woodall and Claudio Gatti, “U.S. charter-school network with Turkish link draws federal attention,” Philadelphia Inquirer, March 20, 2011, http://articles.philly.com/2011-03-20/news/29148147_1_gulen-schools-gulen-followers-charter-schools.

[3] Nolan Rosenkrans, “FBI, state investigate charter schools’ owner,” The Blade, July 19, 2014, http://www.toledoblade.com/Education/2014/07/19/FBI-state-investigate-charter-schools-owner.html; Josh Sweigart, “Allegations mount at area charter school; Attendance records, test results allegedly fudged,” Dayton Daily News, July 27, 2014, http://www.mydaytondailynews.com/news/news/local-education/allegations-mount-at-area-charter/ngnfB/.

[4] A notable exception was Gareth Jenkins, who early on noted the multiple irregularities in the investigations. See his insightful report, Between Fact and Fiction: Turkey’s Ergenekon Investigation (Washington, DC: Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, Johns Hopkins University, 2009).

[5] For an extended account from Rodrik of the trials see: http://drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rodrik/files/plot-against-the-generals.pdf. His blog, including posts on the trials, can be found here: http://rodrik.typepad.com/. Along with his wife he wrote a more comprehensive account of the Sledgehammer trials and the falsification of evidence therein: Pınar Doğan and Dani Rodrik, Yargı, Cemaat ve Bir Darbe Kurgusunun İç Yüzü (Istanbul: Destek Yayınları, 2014).

[6] On the manifold importance of donations in the movement, see Joshua D. Hendrick, Gülen: The Ambiguous Politics of Market Islam in Turkey and the World (New York: New York University Press, 2013), 152-158. See also M. Hakan Yavuz, Toward an Islamic Enlightenment: The Gülen Movement (New York: Oxford University Press, 2013), 80-83.

[7] Yavuz, Toward an Islamic Enlightenment, 32-33.

[8] Fethullah Gülen, Altın Nesil, ed. Latıf Erdoğan (Izmir: Akyol Matbaa ve İşletmesi, 1976), 65.

[9] Gülen, Altın Nesil, 19, 40, 64. Gülen uses the word “feth,” derived from Arabic, which is usually translated as to “conquer” but connotes it in a positive sense akin to “liberate.”

[10] Yavuz, Toward and Islamic Enlightenment, 100-106; Bayram Balcı, “Fethullah Gülen’s Missionary Schools in Central Asia and Their Role in Spreading Turkism and Islam,” Religion, State and Society vol. 31, no. 2 (2003): 160.

[11] Hendrick, Gülen, 89.

[12] Binnaz Toprak, et al., Türkiye’de Farklı Olmak: Din ve Muhafazakarlık Ekseninde Ötekileştirilenler (Istanbul: Metis, 2009), 145-146.

[13] Ahmet Şık, 000Kitap – Dokunan Yanar (Istanbul: Postacı, 2010), 42.

[14] “Fethullah Gülen devletin kılcal damarlarına nasıl sızdı?” Haber Vaktim, July, 18, 2016, http://www.habervaktim.com/haber/477435/fethullah-Gulen-devletin-kilcal-damarlarina-nasil-sizdi.html

[15] Richard Labeviere, Dollars for Terror: The United States and Islam. Trans. Martin DeMers (New York: Algora Publishing, 2000), 5-6.

[16] The series was named “The Cold of February” (Şubat Soğuğu), a reference to the threat of intervention that the General Staff made in February 1997 to bring down the Welfare Party government. It aired on the Gülenist television station Samanyolu TV. The first episode can be found here on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNBfmhncikU.

[17] “Simon” is a term that Şık adopted from his study of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party to denote a person so dedicated to an organization or cause that he would accede to the execution of his innocent brother. The Golden Horn is the inlet of the Bosphorus that lies alongside the historical heart of the city.

[18] Fethullah Gülen v. Michael Chertoff, et al., No. 07-2148. (E.D. PA. Jul 16, 2008), https://casetext.com/case/Gülen-v-chertoff.

[19] Hendrick, Gülen, 58-62.

Sinister Twilight In The Desert: The Coming End Of ‘Wahhabism’ And Its Aftermath – OpEd

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Growing volatility in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) does not augur well for the planet’s future. If current levels of entropy persist, the result would be a fossil-fuel induced global pandemonium. The mainstream and alternative media are of little help in making sense of the larger regional issues at stake, and one would have to resort to a risk foresight methodology – as the author did – to game out possible denouements. The following narrative represents one such end-scenario.

End of the US-Gulf Arab Alliance

US military umbrella for the Gulf Arab world may soon come to an end. There are sound economic reasons for this: Washington had spent close to $10 trillion in protecting Persian Gulf Arab tyrannies and their oil infrastructure since the promulgation of the Carter Doctrine in 1980. This mind-boggling figure, topping $300 billion per annum, was largely based on a 2010 analysis by Roger Stern, an economic geographer at Princeton University. Since then, one can safely add another trillion or two to the $10 trillion tab, in keeping with the deficit ballooning penchant of the Obama administration.

The human cost of this four-decade protection racket has been equally disastrous in terms of native civilian and US military casualties, not to mention global public perception. The rise of global jihadi terrorist networks, co-created by the United States and its Gulf Arab protégés, has inevitably equated America with ISIS. News-savvy global consumers may even pause to wonder if American products or services purchased may end up funding ISIS and a galaxy of Islamic terror stalwarts. This is bad for US business. Presidential hopeful Donald Trump may therefore be allowed to prevail in a rigged bipartisan electoral circus; one where the exercise of American democracy is conducted in full liberty at a ballot boot between Scylla and Charybdis.

The US has lost credibility on all fronts. Even its vacuous boast of being a “Christian nation” is belied by omnipresent national symbols such as the Eye of Horus on the dollar note, Ishtar masquerading as the Statue of Liberty and Jezebel reincarnated as Hillary Clinton. The global proselytes of “American Christianity” – a bizarre militaristic gospel – persist in driving up sales of American bibles and subscriptions to “prophetic” cable TV channels which end up enriching the Saudis and the global jihad enterprise. Here is where American schizophrenia is at its incurable best; one where the Evangelical becomes the effective funder and tormentor of Christians in the Middle East and elsewhere, even while the itinerant American “prophet” seeks tithes and “love offerings” from overseas congregations made ever more vulnerable by the Evangelical-Wahhabi-Military complex he represents.

Many are however taking belated note of this devil’s pact between the United States and the Saudi-led Gulf Arab world. Winning hearts and minds and attempting geostrategic pacts like the “Asian pivot” is impossible under current status quo. The Wahhabi and his ilk stand in the way of a reinvigorated US global outreach. The obscurantists need to go. Redacted portions of the official 9/11 report must be released to implicate the Saudis; legislation allowing families of 9/11 victims to sue Saudi Arabia must be allowed to gain momentum; and former ally Pakistan needs to be declared as a terrorist state. Obstacles and presidential vetoes notwithstanding.

The Economics of Betrayal

US taxpayers can no longer support Gulf Arab security or fight its wars. The stated “isolationist” foreign policy of Trump reflects this changing economic reality.

The Gulf Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia are now caught in a triple-whammy. Their depleting fossil fuel revenues can no longer support heavily-subsidized social programs at home; radical Islamist proselytization and terror activities abroad; and challenge the rise of the US shale oil industry. Saudi attempts to bankrupt the shale oil sector have only backfired. Instead, the US has emerged as the largest producer of petroleum products in the world. The Saudis are not only superfluous to US interests; they are now akin to an explosive-rigged monkey on Uncle Sam’s back.

A sudden collapse of the Saudi-led Gulf Arab monarchies is however undesirable as the resultant oil shortages may lead to global turmoil. A new Islamic champion would be needed to gradually take over those innumerable charities, madrassas, mosques and even militant groups that were traditionally funded by Riyadh and Doha, under guidance from Washington and London. Even now, calls are rising from Iran to Turkey to Pakistan for a new stewardship over Islam’s holy cities of Mecca and Medina.

Wahhabism is being conveniently scapegoated for all the ills afflicting the Islamic world even though its forms, practises and manifestations were a recurring theme that long predated the sect.

The new plan kicked off with the Aug 25-27 Grozny conference themed “Who are the Ahlu-s-Sunnah” (People of Sunnah) in which the Saudis were noticeably absent. The event brought together close to 200 Sunni and Shia prelates from all over the world. Among them was Egypt’s Grand Imam Ahmed el-Tayeb from the Al-Azhar University – the paramount theological authority in the Sunni Islamic world. El-Tayeb effectively called for “a return to the schools of great knowledge” beyond Saudi control. Even the official OIC website, which would have never dared cross their Saudi and Gulf Arab benefactors before, were enthusiastic about the event.

The message seems clear: Islam needs a new quasi-Caliphate that can unite Sunnis and Shias outside Saudi control, along with a collective leadership having full jurisdiction over Mecca and Medina.

The Diversionary Role of Pakistan

Any attempt to wrest control over Mecca and Madinah – the traditional imprimatur of leadership in the Islamic world – will be costly, prolonged and bloody. The inevitable chaos may involve Pakistan’s nuclear arsenals and there is no way the current crop of globalists will allow the Middle East’s valuable oil fields to be reduced into a radioactive sea of glass.

Something needs to be done to keep Pakistan’s vast military and nuclear arsenals busy in another direction. Here is where heightened geopolitical tensions with India may come in handy. Perhaps, Pakistani generals may be incentivised to spark an all-out war with India over Kashmir while the Gulf Arab world disintegrates. Considering the famed pecuniary sleaze of the Pakistani general staff, any proposition that offers Kashmir in return for Islamabad’s military non-participation to save Mecca and Medina should be a clincher. After all, nationalistic Pakistani cries against the spectral “Yahood Aur Hanood” (Jews and Hindus) have perennially been half-empty and half bogus. But it does fill the pockets of its generals to the brim. It has never stopped Pakistan from attempting to establish quasi-diplomatic/military ties with Israel. Yes, you read that right! The self-styled Khorasan army of Islam is perennially knocking on Jerusalem’s door as a supplicant and not as a conqueror, despite popular delusions to the contrary.

The ‘Qibla of Control’

Whoever controls Mecca controls the Islamic world. Mecca is not only the focal direction (qibla) of Muslim prayers worldwide; it brings untold wealth to its guardians in terms of Hajj revenues. Iran naturally has been tinkering with age-old plans to break this monopoly and replace Mecca with Karbala as the centre of (Shia) Muslim pilgrimage. Either way, once the Middle East turns into an inferno, the Sunni world may not have the WMDs and military backing of a Pakistan preoccupied with battling India. This scenario is not a chimera, for there is no shortage of spoilers and usurpers in the region.

Russian President Vladimir Putin himself had notably warned of ISIS’ designs on Mecca, Medina and Jerusalem. While Jerusalem poses an almost insurmountable obstacle, ISIS may yet be able to level the Saudi cities under the patronage of a new, non-Wahhabi master.

The ruination of Mecca and Medina however poses two principal fallouts. The first would be the ensuing social backlash among 1.6 billion Muslims worldwide. There are many imponderables here, but Pakistan may have been used as a testbed to simulate the effects of mass Islamist-led pandemonium during the Day of Love for the Prophet on Sept 21, 2012. The event was ostensibly held to protest an amateurish Youtube video that mocked Islam. Simultaneously-choreographed frenzied protests elsewhere now suspiciously appear like a pilot test designed to measure social fragility in Muslim-majority enclaves and nations.

Ironically, there were far more provocative anti-Islamic videos, write-ups and photos available on the Internet, not to mention a publicly accessible US Army solution to nuke Mecca and Medina as part of a “total war on Islam.” This solution was unveiled before senior US Army officers at the Department of Defence’s Joint Staff Forces College from 2011 onwards. The Pakistani authorities and military brass who organized the “Day of Love” carnage voiced no outrage at this horrific solution. Instead, they begged the United States for more military aid. Kashmir and the Indian bogey, after all, are more important than any American plan to nuke Islam’s holiest sites. The United States is not the only nation eyeing this end-game. The Syrian Army recently discovered a Turkish instructional manual on the use of nukes during a recent terrorist-combing operation. Why would terrorists be given nuclear weapon manuals unless such a device may magically appear for a yet unknown reason and target? Did the recent farcical siege of Incirlik yield a few nuclear weapons to Turkey? Did the Pakistan deliver a few nukes to ISIS-backer Saudi Arabia?

Any social fallout from the destruction of Mecca and Medina may yet be contained as Pakistan showed on its “Day of Love”. NATO members have also instituted a variety of emergency laws between the Sept 11 attacks and the ongoing urban jihadi phenomenon across the Western world. Immigrant backlash provides the pretext and blueprint to introduce regional martial law when the time is right.

The second major fallout from Mecca’s obliteration poses a bigger dilemma. Which direction should 1/5 of humanity now turn to in prayer? The majority Sunnis will not accept Karbala as a focal point of Islam but there yet remains another city that once directed the original qibla. It is none other than Jerusalem which houses the Jewish Temple Mount on which the Al Aqsa mosque and Dome of the Rock are situated.

If Mecca is ever blighted, Israel will face intense pressure from the Western-led “international community” to cede joint custody of the Temple Mount to Turkey, which may emerge unscathed as the new Caliphate. Pressuring Israel may not be too difficult. After all, Western societies have constantly pontificated against annual US military aid to Israel which averaged $3 billion since 2007. The ratio of Western moral proprietary in this context is indeed inverted by a factor of 100. The average Westerner rarely, if ever, takes notice of the $300 billion spent by the US per annum over the past 40-odd years to securitize Gulf Arab regimes which, in turn, frees up native petrodollar profits for global jihad. According to a 2003 testimony provided at a US Senate committee on terrorism, Saudi Arabia had allegedly spent $87 billion between 1980 and 2000 on promoting “Wahhabism” worldwide. This included the financing of 210 Islamic centres, 1,500 mosques, 202 colleges and 2,000 Madrassas.

In other words, the United States had actively subsidized global jihad to the tune of trillions over decades. One wonders if the recent pilferage of $6.5 trillion from US Army accounts was a rainy-day slush fund intended for global jihad and other nefarious activities in a post-Wahhabi world.

The End Game

Israel may have gamed out some aspects of the end-scenario outlined by this analysis. Yet, the hastily concluded $38 billion arms deal with United States may have come too little, too late. Will Jerusalem still persist with its recidivist criminal hostility towards a secular Syrian state that buffers it from ISIS and other jihadi groups? Is it any wonder that New World Order advocate Henry Kissinger– and not Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as claimed by delirious American evangelicals – had predicted that Israel’s imminent demise in 2012? (The Western media later went on a damage control frenzy to spin this “misquote”)

At the end of the day, one trend remains certain: The MENA’s self-destruction will accelerate. How this process morphs is open to question. The terminal phase may begin with an externally-engineered Indo-Pakistani war and end either in a bloody denouement in Jerusalem or an Israeli “peace treaty” with a Turkish-led quasi-Caliphate. However, India and Israel can yet avoid those innumerable traps strewn across the vast geographic swath between their borders. The sequel to this analysis will explore such options.


Russia’s Unfriendly Political Signalling To India On Pakistan – Analysis

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By Dr. Subhash Kapila

Russia’s promiscuous relationship with Pakistan while at the same time professing enduring commitment to its long-standing ‘Special Strategic Partnership’ with India should no longer fool India. Contextually, Russian troops landing in Pakistan for joint exercises with Pakistan Army is an unfriendly act against India.

With India-Pakistan relations at an all-time high inflexion point due to the provocative attacks by Pakistan Army affiliated Jihadi terrorist groups on the Indian Army Base Camp at Uri and with Indian public opinion incensed to a point demanding strong reprisals against Pakistan Army, in the interests of its ‘Special Strategic Partnership’ the least that Russia could have done was to postpone the joint exercises till things cooled down, even if it did not want to cancel this exercise with the Pakistan Army.

That Russia decided to go ahead with this joint exercise with the Pakistan Army displays an utter Russian disregard for Indian political sensitivities. Ironically, the joint Russian-Pakistan military exercise is focused on ‘counter-terrorism operations’ with a country that is involved in de cades long proxy terrorist war against India. Pakistan is also widely recognised as the incubator of global terrorism. It is doubly ironical that this joint Russian-Pakistan military exercise is being held on Pakistani soil, the defiled soil from which Pakistan Army affiliated Jihadi terrorists groups have inflicted wanton death and destruction on hundreds of Indian lives and property.

Still more ironical and adding insult to injury is the reality that initial reports after the Uri attacks indicated that Russia had called off the Russia-Pakistan joint military exercise in Pakistan, seemingly out of respect for Indian political sensitivities. That Russia did a U-TURN on its earlier declared intentions logically indicates that Russia has succumbed to Chinese pressures as China is Pakistan’s much vaunted strategic patron. Chinese pressure would have been intense on Russia so as to bail out Pakistan from a virtual global isolation.

So where does the above changing trends in Russia’s foreign policy of a strategic and political pivot to the China-Pakistan Axis leave India and the future course of Russia-India ‘Special Strategic Partnership? Especially so, when Indian public opinion does not take kindly to countries which align with Pakistan. In Indian public opinion perceptions simple linear equations exist and that is ‘Either you are with India or you are against India when you cavort with India’s implacable enemies.’

That the Russian strategic and political pivot to the China-Pakistan Axis is a strategic pivot to India’s two implacable enemies, namely China and Pakistan, ‘doubly reinforces’ Indian public perceptions that Russia has indulged in a well-calibrated unfriendly act against India and the Indian people.

When equated in terms of human relations, Russia’s promiscuity in getting attracted to Pakistan, for whatever reasons, amounts to Russia being an unfaithful partner in the Russia-India Special Partnership. And therefore, India needs to go in for a divorce from this Special Strategic Partnership which now exists only in name.

Recently, one Indian defence journal devoted a Special Issue advocating as to the imperatives of sustaining the Russia-India Special Strategic Partnership with a lot of extolling by former Indian Ambassadors and Former Indian Armed Forces Senior Officers recalling all that Russia had done for India in the past.

Rebutting this advocacy of Indian Russia-well-wishers I have two simple questions to pose (1) What has Russia done for India lately and whether the Russian pivot to the China-Pakistan Axis is an India-friendly act? (2) Is Russia committed to assist India in attaining the status and role of a Major Global Power?

In strategic and political dimensions Russia has not done anything substantial for India which could be quoted in favour of Russia that it still attaches value to its Special Strategic Relationship with India. Russian strategic and political moves and actions in the recent past have all been China-centric and promotive of China’s strategic interests. Most of such moves have been at cross-purposes with Indian national security interest.

Russia’s strategic pivot to the China-Pakistan Axis is decidedly unfriendly to Indian security interests. In strategic terms it amounts to Russia tilting towards India’s confirmed enemies, singly and jointly, aiming at the ‘containment of India’. In global perceptions it is likely to be viewed as the first sign of the emergence of a China-Pakistan-Russia Axis.

Moving to the next and most crucial question for India at his critical juncture in its ascendant trajectory is whether Russia is committed to facilitating the emergence of India as a Major Global Power, two big negatives hover on the horizon. In the immediate perspective, had it been so, the Russia would not have made a strategic and political pivot to Pakistan. This itself also negates any long-term perspectives. Further, the tenor of the Russia-China strategic nexus strongly indicates that Russia is highly unlikely to tilt towards India and build it to major global power status as China world not stand for it, and Russia cannot afford to jettison China.

How intensely Russia is subservient to China stands reflected in one of my SAAG Paper written after the presentation of my Paper on South China Sea disputes in Moscow organised by the Russian Academy of Social Sciences, the noted Russian strategic academics who presented Papers at this Seminar were all highly tilted towards China’s stand on its sovereignty over the whole of the South China Sea maritime expanse. It was a glaring betrayal of Russia’s yet another strategic partnership, this time with Vietnam. When I questioned the Russian hosts why the change, one was met with a sardonic smile. This only reinforces my contentions in the preceding paragraph.

Before I am accused of being cynically inclined against Russia and Russian foreign policies, the regular readers of my SAAG Papers of the first half of the last decade would recall how strongly I advocated Russia’ strategic resurgence to balance China’s military rise and for global strategic equilibrium.

It also needs to be pointed out that Russia is doing no favours to India presently whether in the field of construction of nuclear reactors or in the field of military hardware. Russia-India engagement in these two fields is ‘purely economic in content’ with no strategic underpinnings. One could sardonically dismiss these moves as retaining some components of a hedging strategy.

The last major question that needs to be addressed is as to whether India needs to be politically and strategically perturbed by Russia’s strategic and political pivot to Pakistan and the China-Pakistan Axis? The answer is that India should not be perturbed at all. The prevailing balance of power in Indo Pacific Asia and at the global level is heavily weighted against the Russia-China Strategic nexus and Russia’s moves towards Pakistan in South Asia amount to no consequence.

At best, Russia’s moves towards Pakistan amount to poor strategic and political signalling to India to impede or slow its growing strategic proximity to the United States and the West. Russia may like to learn from the United States on the strategic and political costs of molly-coddling a dysfunctional and terrorist state like Pakistan.

In terms of concluding observations, one would like to emphasise that while one has argued that Russia’s tilt towards Pakistan is inconsequential, strategic and political prudence would demand that the Indian policy establishment keeps Russia’s moves in Pakistan under close scrutiny. India must also make serious attempts to sensitise the Russian policy establishment on Indian public perceptions on the gross insensitivity that Russia has displayed in not cancelling the joint military exercise with Pakistan against the backdrop of heightened India-Pakistan tensions in the wake of the Uri attacks. Thereafter, it is Russia’s call on what trajectory it wishes to adopt in relation to relations with India.

Hezbollah Leader Nasrallah Says Wahhabism Worse Than Zionism

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Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Hezbollah, made the remark during his annual meeting with Muslim eulogists and the people responsible for commemoration ceremonies during the Lunar month of Muharram, Lebanon’s Al Akhbar newspaper reported on Tuesday.

The Hezbollah chief said he considered Wahhabism to be responsible for damaging Islam’s image worldwide. “Wahhabism is more evil than Israel, especially [in] that it seeks to destroy others and eliminate whatever thing that has to do with Islam and its history,” he said.
Not a Shia, Sunni matter

“This project was launched in 2011, and it not a Shia and Sunni matter. The role played by spy services is completely evident here. We should use this opportunity to pin Wahhabism down and deal a blow to it,” he added.

The existent conflict, Nasrallah said, was not between Shias and Sunnis, but with Wahhabism.

Wahhabism is the radical ideology dominating Saudi Arabia, freely preached by government-backed clerics there, and inspiring extremists worldwide. Daesh and other hardliner groups use the ideology to declare people of other faiths as “infidels” and then kill them.

Nasrallah also said what posed a yet bigger threat than even Wahhabism and Zionism was “British Shiism,” which, he said, was being promoted by pseudo-religious figures, whom he called mercenaries of intelligence services.

The Hezbollah chief said Saudi Arabia had escalated tensions to a climax and was trying, with the help of US and Britain, to portray conflicts as sectarian.

Referring to the Syrian conflict, he said there were no “moderate” armed groups in Syria, warning that all those fighting Damascus were either working with Daesh or al-Nusra, which has recently renamed itself.

Nasrallah also said there was no prospect a political solution for the Syrian conflict. “Developments on the [battle] ground will ultimately determine [the outcome],” he said matter-of-factly.

Syria has been fighting a brutal civil war since March 2011. Hezbollah fighters have been supporting Syrian government forces in the fight against rebel groups, including Daesh and other groups.

Original article

Withdrawing The MFN Status To Pakistan: Legality And Implications – Analysis

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By VP Haran*

The Most Favoured Nation (MFN) treatment is the fundamental basis of multilateral trade conducted under the World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. It simply means that WTO members will not discriminate among other members, except as specifically provided for in the rules. Multilateral trade rules embodied in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade [GATT], were framed in the immediate years following the World War II, which probably prompted the framers of the rules to provide for exceptions to the general rule on grounds of National Security, via Article XXI. There are other exceptions as well, in Article XX of the GATT. In the context of reports that India will be reviewing its 1996 decision to extend the MFN status to Pakistan, it will be useful to understand the legal position, in view of our commitments in the WTO and under SAFTA.

Pakistan, which is bound by WTO rules to extend the MFN status to India has not done so, using the provisions of Article XXI. India has not taken the issue to the WTO dispute settlement mechanism, partly because it is difficult to challenge Pakistan’s subjective assessment on security issues. Nor has New Delhi reconsidered withdrawing the 1996 decision – probably because it gives us bragging rights that we have been extremely reasonable in dealing with Pakistan. Article XXI ‘Security Exceptions’ of GATT states that:

“Nothing in this Agreement shall be construed…(b) to prevent any contracting party from taking any action which it considers necessary for the protection of its essential security interests…(iii) taken in time of war or other emergency in international relations; or (c) to prevent any contracting party from taking any action in pursuance of its obligations under the United Nations Charter for the maintenance of international peace and security.”

The critical phrase – “which it considers necessary” – gives a member state nearly unfettered rights to invoke this provision at its own discretion, which is what Pakistan has used, to deny the MFN status to India. In the mid-1980s, following a ban on imports of goods and services from Nicaragua by the US, the former approached the GATT. The US argued that validity of its decision to invoke Article XXI cannot be examined by the GATT Panel and succeeded in getting this critical point excluded from the terms of reference to the Panel.

The answer to whether or not India has the right to withdraw the MFN status to Pakistan on security considerations is a most definitive yes. When Pakistan has invoked a security exception to deny India an MFN status, New Delhi would be justified in reciprocating for the same reason and under the same provision; and Pakistan will have no case to take to the WTO. Furthermore, recent developments near the India-Pakistan border would constitute an emergency in New Delhi’s relations with Islamabad, which would justify the decision to withdraw the MFN status.

All members of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) are required to extend MFN treatment to fellow members, under the South Asian Free Trade Agreement [SAFTA]. SAFTA also provides for some exceptions, one of which is national security. Article 14(a) of the SAFTA states that:

“Nothing in this Agreement shall be construed to prevent any Contracting State from taking action and adopting measures which it considers necessary for the protection of its national security.”

This provision is modeled after Article XXI of the GATT and here again, the member can adopt “measures which it considers necessary”. The measures are left to the discretion of the member and India would be justified in withdrawing the MFN status in the present circumstances. Its assessment in this regard is beyond challenge.

While India would be on firm legal ground in withdrawing the MFN status granted to Pakistan, what would the practical implications be? It will be a strong political message to Pakistan, but more importantly, to domestic public opinion that the government means business in facing up to the security challenges from the western frontier.

It is uncertain whether it will have serious economic consequences for Pakistan. Pakistan’s exports to India in 2015-16 was $441 million – 1.56 per cent of its total exports – and much of it was primary products. On the other hand, India’s exports through regular channels to Pakistan in 2015-16, despite the denial of MFN status, was $2.17 billion. Pakistan could retaliate by restricting imports of several items from India.

On the economic front, the scores may be even; but on political terms, India would have scored a point.

* VP Haran
Former Indian Deputy Permanent Representative to the WTO, Geneva, and former Indian Ambassador to Syria & Bhutan

Iraqi Group Threatens To Sue US For War Crimes

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As Congress attempts to override a presidential veto of legislation that would allow US citizens to sue foreign governments over terror attacks, an organization representing Iraqis killed or wounded by the US military is threatening to sue the American government for war crimes.

The Iraqi National Project has stated that the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, which would allow 9/11 victims and families to sue Saudi Arabia over the nation’s role in the attacks, has opened a pathway for lawsuits against foreign governments.

The White House claims that the bill was vetoed because it would open the floodgates for other nations and organizations to sue the US, which is exactly what the Iraqi group wants to do. “In light of the majority vote by the US Congress and Senate in support of the 9/11 bill removing the sovereign immunity rights of Saudi Arabia and other countries accused of being implicated in terrorism—and in spite of President Obama’s veto on September 23rd 2016—we hereby declare that if this bill is actually passed and becomes a law, then it constitutes a window of opportunity for millions of Iraqis who have lost their sons and daughters in military operations by US military forces and US contracted forces since the US invasion in 2003 to pursue compensation from the US government for what they have endured,” a letter published by the Iraqi National Project states, according to the Washington Free Beacon. They cited US bombings of civilians and the well-documented torture that took place in Abu Ghraib.

“These US operations included bombings of civilians, arrests, torture [like in Abu Ghraib prison], and in numerous camps set up by the US forces across Iraq,” the letter continues. “There are also tens of thousands of maimed and handicapped Iraqis as a result of this injustice.” The group also asserts that all of those horrors were based on faulty US intelligence. “The majority of the injustices were based on very sketchy information and very discriminatory methods with numerous omissions from US officials and ex-officials,” the letter reads. “Once the 9/11 bill becomes law, we will endeavor and assist on a strong effort towards the formation of special committees seated by top Iraqi lawyers and judges along with numerous international legal advisers.”

The Saudi government has repeatedly denied any involvement in the 2001 attacks which left nearly 3,000 people dead, but many have long suspected that the hijackers of four planes that crashed into targets in New York, Washington DC and rural Pennsylvania were backed by Riyadh.

The bill, which may become subject to the first presidential veto override during Obama’s term in office, has left many lawmakers in a tough spot, as they want to see justice for the victims of terror attacks, but are concerned with the precedent it sets. “I worry about legal matters. I worry about trial lawyers trying to get rich off of this. And I do worry about the precedence. At the same time, these victims do need to have their day in court,” House Speaker Paul Ryan told reporters. A veto override requires two thirds of lawmakers to vote in favor of it, in both the Senate and House of Representatives. Even key Democrats have said they will stand by the bill, despite the president’s objections, including Nancy Pelosi. “I’ve worked with these families for a very long time, and I think they should have their day in court,” House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi told reporters last week.

Driving Out Islamic State From Libya: What Lies Ahead? – Analysis

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Libyan forces with US air support are driving out Islamic State fighters in Libya. Still the oil-rich nation is deeply divided by rival factions and armed militias.

By Ahmad Saiful Rijal Bin Hassan and Mohammed Sinan*

Libyan forces are close to securing victory over militias from IS, also known as ISIS, in the city of Sirte, the hometown of the late leader Muammar Gaddafi. The city has been under ISIS control since early last year. Currently, with the support of US air strikes, ISIS fighters have been cornered in a small section of Sirte.

According to US Defence Secretary, Ashton Carter, it is just a matter of time before ISIS is eliminated from Libya. This anticipated victory against ISIS will however be temporary and celebrations will be premature as Libya faces an even tougher challenge – uniting fragmented factions.

Deeper Tensions

The battle of Sirte has proved to be a test for unity among warring factions in Libya. Currently, the Misratans hailing from the city of Misrata west of Sirte and the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) militias from the areas east of Sirte are fighting against ISIS. Both of these militias had previously battled each other and are expected to continue to fight even after the ouster of ISIS fighters. The Misratans have already declared that they are ready to take over Sirte and will head to the capital, Tripoli, the stronghold of the UN-backed government, General National Accords (GNA).

The GNA recently suffered a setback after getting a vote of no-confidence from a rival government, House of Representatives (HoR), which is based in the eastern city of Tobruk. Meanwhile, other rival militias across the country are carrying out extrajudicial killings to demonstrate their power as territories and oil ports are being seized. The most recent incident is the takeover by the Libyan National Army (LNA) commanded by Khalifa Heftar, of oil fields belonging to the PFG.

The seizure has caused some instability in the Libyan politico-military landscape. The takeover may result in the diversion of the PFG’s attention from the fight against ISIS. Also, LNA’s failure to join in the liberation of Sirte, and ISIS’ defence and counter-attacks, has led to the anti-ISIS operations being protracted.

Moving Forward Post-ISIS

A post-ISIS Libya does not guarantee stability in the current scenario. It is uncertain if the fighting among the Misratans and PFG will cease or if the two governments, the HoR and the GNA, will agree on any settlement or collaboration. These uncertainties have caused a fair amount of confusion and disorder in the country, caused by the LNA’s refusal to submit to the GNA’s authority. This is because the LNA is the strongest force that can help to integrate the various militias into the governmental forces and stabilise the situation in Libya.

Thus the eventual elimination of ISIS, while necessary, is not the end of Libya’s political quagmire. There has to be political reconciliation between the different factions before there can be any improvement in the security situation or attention paid to economic development. Libya will also have to look beyond its oil industry because it is usually the target in any attempt to destabilise the oil-dependent government. Trying to diversify its earnings from other sectors will help to mitigate its economic problems, although it will be a long process.

Beyond Libya’s Borders

At the regional level, Egypt’s military support for General Heftar, whose spokesperson has announced the group’s intentions to export oil in the Egyptian currency, adds another level of complication. These trade relations only highlight the expanding relations between the two parties. This is also supplemented by General Heftar’s amenities granted to the Egyptian government which were not authorised by his superiors, the HoR. General Heftar’s collaborations with Egypt will therefore mean that seeking Egypt’s support will now be crucial to bring about stability in Libya.

The neighbouring countries of Tunisia, Algeria, Chad and Niger will also have a part to play due to the influx of incoming militant refugees. Although Tunisia closed its borders with Libya in June 2015, it was reopened soon after. Such steps would not have helped much in stopping cross- border human smuggling, especially given that there are many established routes between these two countries.

At the international level, the United States and the United Kingdom will have a vital role to play financially and politically. Although the US has weighed in on Libya by launching air strikes since August 2016, there are other ways that the US will be expected to help. The most important will be to integrate all the different local militias into the GNA which also requires the help of the UK.

This could become slightly easier than before due to an increase in the GNA’s legitimacy after the expected victory over ISIS; however there are still many more security as well as political and economic issues that will have to be looked at before these steps can be implemented.

*Ahmad Saiful Rijal Bin Hassan is a Senior Analyst and Mohammed Sinan Siyech is a Research Analyst with the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR), a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

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