Older adolescents and adults can learn certain thinking skills including non-verbal reasoning more effectively than younger people, finds new UCL (University College London) research.

The study, published in Psychological Science, also highlights the fact that non-verbal reasoning skills can be readily trained and do not represent an innate, fixed ability.

“Although adults and older adolescents benefitted most from training in non-verbal reasoning, the average test score for adolescents aged 11-13 improved from 60% to 70% following three weeks of ten-minute online training sessions,” said senior author Professor Sarah-Jayne Blakemore (UCL Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience). “This calls into question the claim that entry tests for selective schools that include non-verbal reasoning ‘assess the true potential of every child’.”

The research involved 558 school pupils aged 11-18 and 105 adults, who were initially tested in various skills and then completed up to 20 days of online training in a particular skill before taking the tests again. They were then tested six months later to see whether the effect of training lasted.

The non-verbal reasoning test involved looking at a 3×3 grid of shapes with the final square left blank. Participants had to choose the correct shape to complete the pattern, and the shapes could vary by color, size, shape and position. In another test, ‘numerosity discrimination’, participants were shown two groups of different colored dots in quick succession and had to judge which group had the most dots.

“We find that these cognitive skills, which are related to mathematics performance, show greater training effects in late adolescence than earlier in adolescence,” explained co-lead author Dr Lisa Knoll. “These findings highlight the relevance of this late developmental stage for education and challenge the assumption that earlier is always better for learning. We find that fundamental cognitive skills related to mathematics can be significantly trained in late adolescence.”

At the testing stages, volunteers were tested on various tasks, not just the ones they had trained in, to see if the training effects transferred to other skills. No transfer effects were observed, suggesting that the effect of training was specific to each task.

“Some ‘brain training’ apps claim to improve your IQ by getting you to practise a specific task such as the non-verbal reasoning task we used in our experiment,” said co-lead author Ms Delia Fuhrmann (UCL Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience). “However, there is no evidence that this leads to an improvement in overall cognitive ability. All we can say for sure is that training to spot patterns in a 3×3 grid of abstract shapes improves your ability to spot patterns in a 3×3 grid of abstract shapes. While this ability is commonly tested in IQ tests, it might not be appropriate to make judgements about other forms of intelligence based on the outcomes of such tests.”

Isolates of a common poultry pathogen collected from animals in Indian bird markets were mostly resistant to multiple classes of antibiotics. The study provides the first data on prevalence and isolation of Helicobacter pullorum in India. The research is published November 4 in Applied and Environmental Microbiology, a journal of the American Society for Microbiology.

In the study, the investigators sequenced the genomes of 11 isolates of the pathogen, H. pullorum, from broiler and free range chickens from markets in Hyderabad, India. Each contained five or six well characterized antimicrobial resistance genes. The isolates were resistant to fluoroquinolones, cephalosporins, sulfonamides, and macrolide antibiotics, as well as others. Additionally, they produced extended spectrum β-lactamases, enzymes that rendered them resistant to penicillin family antibiotics.

Virulence screening identified 182 important virulence genes in the isolates.

Coauthor Niyaz Ahmed, PhD, Professor of Biotechnology & Bioinformatics, University of Hyderabad, India, said that H. pullorum could potentially be pathogenic in poultry and in humans, and explained that cases have been reported of human enteric disease caused by this bacterium. He also said that it carries a toxin that can interfere with the cell cycle, and cause DNA damage that can lead to cancer.

H. pullorum could become a public health concern, said Ahmed, because of the cancer-causing potential, and because “in countries like India, H. pullorum from poultry could be multi-resistant already because of the prevailing animal husbandry practices.”

The lack of research on the prevalence of H. pullorum in India provided the impetus for the study, said Ahmed. “We targeted wet market poultry outlets for our sampling, keeping in mind that poultry in India are often fed with antibiotics to promote weight gain. These practices most likely boost spread of drug-resistant pathogens among animals and humans, posing a significant public health risk.”

“Our study suggests that chickens could be a major source for transmission of emerging MDR pathogen, H. pullorum, from poultry to humans,” the investigators concluded. Additionally, they wrote, the study strongly supports the hypothesis that this species is an emerging pathogen, as it is closely related to established pathogens such as Campylobacter jejuni. Given the prevalence of H. pullorum in Indian chicken, as described in the study, the half billion Indians who eat chicken, and the fact that chicken consumption is growing at a huge 12 percent per year, the potential for spreading multi-drug resistance is “alarming,” the researchers wrote.

(Civil.Ge) — U.S. Vice President Joe Biden spoke to Georgia’s Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili by phone on November 4 “to congratulate him on his party’s victory” in parliamentary elections and “encouraged” him to use the election results, which gave the ruling party constitutional majority, to continue democratic reforms, the White House said.

“The Vice President commended Georgia’s democratic leadership in the region,” the White House said in readout of Biden’s call with Kvirikashvili.

“He also reiterated U.S. support for Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders and condemned Russia’s ratification of a ‘treaty’ with Abkhazia on setting up a joint armed force,” the White House said.

“The leaders agreed that Georgian Dream’s strong majority imposes a great responsibility on the government to lead inclusively and reach out to all pro-reform forces as it crafts its policies.”

“The Vice President encouraged the Prime Minister to use the election results to continue Georgia’s democratic and economic reforms that will further Georgia’s integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions,” the White House said.

Tax evasion imposes substantial costs on economies around the world. Beyond equity concerns, it erodes the tax base, with indirect effects on public investment and service provision. This column uses a model calibrated on the Italian economy to assess the direct and indirect effects of tax evasion on economic growth. Enforcing taxes would force small businesses to innovate, putting pressure on larger businesses and clearing the market of poorly performing small firms. Tackling tax evasion is thus important not only for equity reasons, but also for efficiency.

By Emmanuele Bobbio*

In many advanced and most emerging countries, a fair share of firms avoid paying some or all taxes (Schneider et al. 2011).¹ All the major international organisations periodically put strong pressure on governments to take decisive steps to fight the phenomenon (e.g. IMF 2015, World Bank Group et al. 2015). Their main concern, beyond equity, is that tax evasion erodes the tax base, limiting public investment and the provision of public services. One often neglected issue is that combating tax evasion could also help directly boost productivity and growth by reducing distortions.

Evasion is not an equally viable option for all economic actors in a country, and it thus has the potential to alter the allocation of resources and harm productivity. While well-known cases usually involve large corporations, tax evaders are more often small firms, which are more difficult to monitor and tend to display little propensity to innovate (possibly because innovating entails growing and becoming more visible).² Moreover, tax evasion allows many firms to survive despite having low productivity, and to compete unfairly with ‘regular’ firms, thus squeezing their profit margins and reducing their incentives to innovate. The strength of the direct and indirect effects of tax evasion on economic growth is largely unknown, though potentially considerable.

Analytical framework

In recent work, I try to assess those effects using a Schumpeterian model with heterogeneous firms (see Klette and Kortum 2004, Lentz and Mortensen 2008), in which the possibility of evading taxes interacts with businesses’ propensity to innovate (Bobbio 2016). In the model, the probability of being caught increases with the amount of taxes the firm chooses not to pay and, most importantly, with its size; thus, tax evasion represents a correlated distortion. The distortion reduces the effort of tax-evading firms to innovate (because growth will increase the probability of their being caught) as well as that of regular firms (through unfair competition). By lowering the innovation intensity in the economy, tax evasion also hampers selection, shifting the composition of business towards firms with less innovative capacity and reducing the aggregate growth rate over the extensive margin as well.

The model is calibrated on the Italian economy, which has a high level of tax evasion, weak firm dynamics, small average firm size, low R&D intensity, and weak aggregate productivity performance compared with other advanced countries.³ Even before the crisis, between 1995 and 2006, the annual growth rate of labour productivity in Italy was 0.9%, compared with 2.4% in France and 2.5% in Germany.

Quantitative results

The main finding is that, every year, tax evasion knocks 20 basis points off Italian productivity growth. This is probably a conservative figure,⁴ but it implies that tax evasion explains up to 15% of the cumulative growth differential with France and Germany. The calibrated model also shows that enforcing taxes would improve the efficiency of resource allocation, raising the market share of more productive and more innovative businesses by almost eight percentage points.

The inducement is that lowering the scope for evading taxes reduces the (shadow) cost of growing and becoming a regular business, and raises the benefits. When taxes are fully enforced, small businesses innovate and grow at double the rate (+120%; see panels A and B of Figure 1); large businesses also innovate and grow more (by nearly 20%) because of fairer competition. Selection becomes stricter, and creative destruction clears the market of small businesses with poorer performance (Figure 1, panel C).⁵ As a result, in a compliant Italy, firms would be on average 25% larger, and innovation expenditure would be 36% higher (Figure 1, panel D).

Figure 1. The impact of tax evasion on innovation, firms’ growth and selection

Note: Simulation results for the calibrated model (targeting a 12% share of shadow labour in total —employment – see endnote 4) and for the counterfactual with no tax evasion; panel A: innovation expenditure by age divided by value added by age; panel B: employment by age divided by number of firms by age; panel C: share of value added produced by innovative firms by age; panel D: comparison of the same three quantities along the two balanced growth paths. In the case with evasion, actual quantities are displayed, including both the observed and the unobserved components.

Is there room to achieve a similar growth target by lowering taxes, without stepping up tax enforcement? In the presence of tax evasion, the model predicts that lowering the corporate tax rate would boost the growth rate permanently by four basis points for each percentage point reduction in government revenues. When the scope for tax evasion varies across firms, the competitive edge obtained by taxes avoidance increases with the level of statutory tax rates; hence, lowering tax rates boosts growth.⁶

Concluding remarks

One recurrent suggestion in the debate on fiscal policy is to use the additional revenues from tax enforcement to lower tax rates. The discussion above suggests that combining these two policies could prove particularly effective as they both promote growth. Based on the model simulations, reducing tax evasion by one quarter and using the extra proceeds to cut the corporate tax rate would increase growth by 10 basis points (a third of this coming from lower statutory rates).

These counterfactuals provide support for a commonly held opinion – that if a society chooses a high level of taxes in order to provide for a wide range of goods and services from public funds, then it needs to make sure that everybody bears a fair share of the tax burden – not only for reasons of equity, but for efficiency too.

About the author:
* Emmanuele Bobbio, Economist, Bank of Italy

References:
Acemoglu, D, U Akcigit, N Bloom and W Kerr (2013) “Innovation, reallocation and growth”, NBER, Working Paper 18993.

Calvino, F, C Criscuolo and C Menon  (2016) “No country for young firms? Start-up dynamics and national policies”, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers, 29, Paris.

Internal Revenue Service (2006) “IRS Updates Tax Gap Estimates”.

IMF (2015) Current challenges in revenue mobilization: Improving tax compliance.

Klette, T and S Kortum (2004) “Innovating firms and aggregate innovation”, Journal of Political Economy, 112(5): 986–1018.

Lentz, R and D Mortensen (2008) “An empirical model of growth through product innovation”, Econometrica, 76(6): 1317–1373.

Ministero dell’Economia e delle Finanze (2014) “Nota di aggiornamento del documento di economia e finanza 2015, rapporto sui risultati conseguiti in materia di misure di contrasto dell’evasione fiscale“.

Schneider F, A Buehn and C Montenegro (2011) “Shadow economies all over the world: New estimates”, in F Schneider (ed), Handbook of the Shadow Economy, Edward Elgar: Cheltenham, UK.

Slemrod, J (2007) “Cheating ourselves: The economics of tax evasion”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(1): 25–48.

World Bank Group et al. (2015) From billions to trillions: Transforming development finance.

Endnotes:
[1] The size of the shadow economy across high-income OECD countries is estimated at 13.5% of GDP in 2005, and varies from 8.5% in the US, around 15% in France and Germany, to as much as 27.1% in Italy. The (unweighted) average figure for developing countries is 35.5%, ranging from 12.2% in China to 64.7% in Bolivia (Schneider et al. 2011).

[2] According to the US Internal Revenue Service (2006), the net misreporting percentage for non-farm sole proprietor income in 2001 was 57%. Based on those data, Slemrod (2007) puts the net misreporting percentage for firms with fewer than $10 million in assets at 29%, as opposed to 14% for larger businesses. The Italian Revenue Agency estimates that sole-proprietorships concealed approximately one third of their tax base between 2007 and 2008 (Ministero dell’Economia e delle Finanze 2014). For a more general discussion, see IMF (2015). According to Eurostat data, in 2007, firms with 250 or more employees accounted for 77% of R&D expenditure in Italy and 91% in Germany.

[3] See endnote 1 for comparative estimates of the size of the shadow economy. Based on Eurostat Structural Business Statistics, Italian firms employed an average of 4.1 persons in 2008 compared with 12.3 in Germany. In the same year business expenditure on R&D was 0.6% of GDP in Italy and 1.8% in Germany. For cross-country evidence on firm dynamics, see Calvino et al. (2016).

[4] First, I assume that the elasticity of the probability of innovation to the amount of resources invested is one third, which is at the lower end of the interval of available microeconometric estimates (ranging from 0.3 to 0.6; see Acemoglu et al. 2016). An elasticity of 0.4 implies that tax evasion lowers growth by nearly 30 basis points. Second, I target a relatively low level of tax evasion, calibrating the model to generate a share of undeclared labour equal to 12%, the lowest of all the official estimates. Third, I assume that innovation requires only labour—instead, if it requires investing in physical equipment, the effect on growth of eliminating tax evasion and lowering taxes will be 24 basis points.

[5] Clearly, getting rid of tax evasion would also entail a large windfall in public revenues, estimated at around 5.4% of GDP in the model, which is in line with the Italian Revenue Agency’s official estimates of the tax gap – 91.4 billion euros or approximately 5.6% of GDP on average from 2007 to 2013 (Ministero dell’Economia e delle Finanze 2014).

[6] On the other hand, in a compliant economy, lowering statutory rates has little impact on growth—labour and value added taxes have no effect because they are levied uniformly on all businesses and do not alter competition and expected profits from innovation; corporate taxes have a negligible effect because of the model parameters resulting from the calibration exercise.

By Walden Bello*

Just into his fourth month as head of state, President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines has managed to become one of the most controversial actors on the global stage, rivaling if not eclipsing Donald Trump.

Not least there’s his war on drugs at home, which has already seen the extrajudicial executions of what some current estimates put at over 4,000 users and peddlers — and won him the title of “serial killer” on French television. But Duterte is also shaking up the geopolitics of his entire region.

The former Davao City mayor, who not long ago called U.S. president Barack Obama a “son of a bitch,” recently declared a “separation” from the United States and “alignment” with China and Russia during a state visit to Beijing. This brash departure from 70 years of alignment between the U.S. and the Philippines alarmed and befuddled other U.S.-allied governments in East Asia.

Foremost among these is the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Japan, which has been tightening its ties with Washington and considers the Philippines a vital element in the U.S.-Japan strategy of encircling China and limiting its capability to project maritime power. A recent visit to Tokyo by Duterte did little to reassure the Japanese. Coming out of a meeting with Duterte, a top foreign policy official of the Japanese government told me that he found Duterte “unnecessarily provocative” towards the United States.

Breaking Down Duterte

What exactly is Duterte up to, and why are the Philippines’ neighbors so alarmed?

If I were to break down the complex political animal that is the president, I would probably highlight the following elements:

First, one must not underestimate his personal history and psychology. Duterte is likely to have retained the anti-American sentiments that were prevalent during his student days in Manila in the 1960s. He is also a very thin-skinned person, so he took U.S. criticism of the extrajudicial killings that have been the trademark of his war on drugs personally. He sees no distinction between himself and the state, and thus views criticism of himself as an assault on national sovereignty. L’etat, c’est moi may well be the most fitting description of the way Duterte views his relationship to the Philippine state.

Duterte may therefore be attracted to China because its authoritarian system appeals to his own strongman personality. Beijing’s willingness to rebuff U.S. criticism of China’s human rights record likely appeals to the Philippine leader, who similarly views his domestic policy as none of Washington’s business. This political and psychological affinity towards Beijing is something that must not be underestimated.

Second, being a lawyer, Duterte knows that despite its military treaties with the Philippines, Washington’s position is that the U.S. is not legally obligated to support and protect the Philippines’ territorial claims in the South China Sea, or West Philippine Sea, where Beijing and Manila have been at loggerheads for years. Despite claiming the Philippines as a “collective defense” partner, the U.S. has been explicit that it “does not intervene” in sovereignty issues.

Duterte understands that all the U.S.-Philippine Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement of 2014 did was to put the Philippines on the U.S. side of a superpower struggle with China, with all the costs and few of the benefits that go with being a junior partner of such an alliance. Despite his penchant for “ideological” statements (when he is not uttering curses), Duterte is a foreign policy realist who knows that Washington’s strategic goal is to contain China, scorns U.S. rhetoric about being a benevolent hegemon, and is impatient with claims that there is a coincidence of interests between Washington and Manila.

His pragmatic streak is also evident in his ambiguous statements on the future of the defense treaties with the United States. Although he might be bent on pushing for a more independent policy for the Philippines and distancing Manila from Washington, he is not likely to immediately scrap the existing military treaties with the United States. He may, however, put them in cold storage.

Duterte vs. the System

In any event, whatever his motivations for distancing himself from Washington and declaring his alignment with China, Duterte’s behavior constitutes a profound challenge to the post-World War II system of regional security in the Asia-Pacific. That system has had three basic assumptions.

First, the countries of East Asia cannot be relied to on to create a system of regional peace and security by themselves.

Second, only U.S. military power and a system of U.S.-dominated bilateral alliances with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia can maintain regional peace and security — not a multilateral system like NATO in Europe or a collective security agreement incorporating rival countries.

Third, the interests or Washington and the interests of the Asia-Pacific countries coincide, making the U.S. not a coercive but a benevolent hegemon.

Whether he realizes it or not, in other words, Duterte is putting a spanner not only in U.S.-Philippine relations, but on a whole system of regional security. That’s why the elites of Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and a number of Southeast Asian countries that are wedded to this system are worried about him and the example he poses to other peoples in the region. From their point of view, he is a destabilizing element.

From the perspective of many others like myself, on the other hand, Duterte has the potential to unfreeze the glacial structure of security left over from the Cold War and open the way to a new regional system of peace and security that does not rest on an increasingly volatile balance of power strategy promoted by Washington and supported by dependent elites.

Washington’s Response and Duterte’s Options

But key questions remain: Is this all bluff and bluster? If not, will Duterte’s disengagement from the U.S. continue to be a volatile one-man show, or will it be pursued systematically? In moving away from Washington, will Duterte be able to forge a strategy that would avoid making the Philippines a dependency of China?

And, of course, one cannot discount how Washington would react should it come to the conclusion that Duterte really means business.

The U.S. and Philippine military and intelligence establishments have very close ties that go back to the colonial period. The U.S. supported the Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos, and it played a key role in deposing him when he became a liability. Washington knows that it stands not only to lose the Philippines, but also to see the whole edifice of its regional hegemony since the end of the Second World War seriously compromised.

Diplomatic isolation of Duterte could be the U.S. response, which is why Duterte’s patient cultivation of neighbors like the ASEAN countries and even core U.S. allies like South Korea and Japan — if not to win them over to a new paradigm of regional security, at least to neutralize them — is a must for the Philippine leader.

But the U.S. response could be more ruthless, perhaps entailing U.S.-orchestrated destabilization on the domestic front. This is why, if not an effective consensus, Duterte needs a critical mass behind any realignment away from Washington, especially since pro-American feelings remain widespread in the population. That critical mass remains to be forged.

Many potential supporters fear that Duterte’s unplanned, indeed haphazard, way of going about his project may derail it and provide the U.S. with the opportunity to destabilize his administration. Others are put off by what they see as his indiscriminate embrace of China, seeing this as exchanging one master for another. To win them over, Duterte needs to show a hardnosed approach towards the Chinese, like phasing out the U.S. military presence in the country as a bargaining chip for China’s demilitarizing its presence in the South China Sea.

And not least, many supporters of a more nationalist Philippine course are reluctant to lend active support to Duterte since they are repelled by his murderous ways of imposing “law and order” on the domestic front. To gain their backing for his realignment, he may have to do nothing less than stop the killings. Duterte would do well to ponder this seriously, since these are serious nationalists, unlike many of his current political backers.

Rodrigo Duterte has indeed kicked up a storm. It remains to be seen whether Typhoon Duterte will gather strength or peter out in the foreseeable future. The outcome will greatly depend on Duterte himself. One thing is certain: If he continues to conduct his diplomacy as a bombastic one-man show, he is bound to fail.

Foreign Policy In Focus columnist Walden Bello is senior visiting research fellow at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies at Kyoto University. A former member of the Philippines’ House of Representatives, Walden Bello was the co-author of two joint resolutions to abrogate the U.S.-Philippine Visiting Forces Agreement. He made the only resignation on principle in the history of the Congress of the Philippines in 2015, owing to differences with the previous administration of President Benigno Aquino III, among them his disapproval of Aquino’s signing the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the United States.

By Rajeesh Kumar

The recent United Nations Security Council meeting on cooperation between the UN and regional organizations in preserving international peace and security underlined the urgency of a collective response through regional and global partnerships. At the meeting, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said that the UN is working to strengthen collaboration with regional organizations in line with Charter provisions relating to regional arrangements. He also observed that ‘in that way, we can make the most of our respective strengths.’ Though no one questions the promise of such partnerships, there are many impediments in practically achieving it as is evident from past partnership missions of the UN.

The UN Charter preserves the rights of Member States to form regional arrangements for dealing with peace and security issues, and the primary role of such agencies is stated in Chapter VIII of the Charter. The Charter asks members of the UN to make efforts to achieve the pacific settlement of local disputes through regional arrangements before referring them to the Security Council. This confirms the fact that the UN does not have a monopoly on the issues of peace and security. Nonetheless, the Charter prohibits enforcement actions by regional organizations without prior authorization from the Security Council. Though the provisions that recognize the responsibility of regional organizations are present in the Charter, throughout the Cold War period the UN showed limited interest in making use of these regional arrangements to maintain international peace and security. The Cold War power politics and consequent stalemate in the Security Council were the major challenges in this period.

After the end of the Cold War, it was the unwillingness of Western member states and the failure of the UN to respond promptly to humanitarian emergencies that led to a rethink about regional organizations playing a role in preventing conflicts and maintaining peace and security. Rwanda, Somalia, and Sudan stand as examples in this regard. These failures and reluctance also fetched many criticisms over the irresponsible approach of the UN towards the many instances of genocide and crimes against humanity in Africa. Together, these factors compelled the international community to search for a more realistic way to address conflicts and restore international peace and stability.

Further, at the regional level as well, the environment became more conducive to develop regional partnerships. The possibility of the contagious effect of regional conflicts and consequently lesser reluctance among regional countries to play a role as well as their greater knowledge about these conflicts increased the potentials and promises of regional partnerships. For many post-colonial states, national security was also linked to regional security. Finally, the functionalist logic of seeing regional integration as an engine to promote peace also contributed to this development.

Africa was the first test ground for this regional partnership for peace. The cry for ‘African solutions to African problems’ was the primary stimulus. It was the UN’s realization of its incapability in finding durable solutions to conflicts in Africa which resulted in many resolutions and agreements related to regional partnerships. The agreement with the Organization of African Unity (OAU) in 1965, and the General Assembly and Security Council resolutions such as 43/12(1988), 48/25(1993), 50/158 (1995), S/RES/2167 and S/RES/2033 are some of the documents that later became the source of the UN’s regional partnership in Africa.1 Subsequently, the United Nations signed similar agreements with many other regional and sub-regional organizations, such as the European Union (EU), Organization of African States (OAS), North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), etc. In practice, however, the record of collaboration between the UN and regional organizations has not measured up to the promises originally framed in these documents. Failure of coordination in the field, the interests of dominant regional powers, lack of top level political contacts, and institutional differences among regional partners have been some of the significant challenges in this regard.

The United Nations-African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) is a good example of in terms of highlighting the problems associated with regional partnerships in peace. UNAMID was the first ever hybrid peacekeeping mission and the most expensive endeavour ever undertaken by the UN. The mission was authorized by Security Council resolution 1769 in 2007, and it proposed political, financial, logistical and military burden sharing between the UN and AU. Currently, with 20,616 peacekeepers and an annual budget of USD 1.39 billion, UNAMID is the largest peacekeeping mission in the world. The core mandate of the mission is the protection of civilians.

As the above facts show, the expectation was rather high when UNAMID was established. However, the discrepancies between the mandate of UNAMID and its operational abilities ensured that the regional partnership became a failure. The alleged mass rape of 221 women by the Sudanese Army in 2014 and the lukewarm response from UNAMID exposed the inability of the mission to perform its primary mandate of protecting civilians. Despite the presence of peacekeepers, more than 3,000 villages in Darfur were burnt by the Sudanese Armed Forces in 2014 alone. However, no concrete action was taken by UNAMID in protecting civilians at the time of these incidents. The mission also failed to provide security for the Internally Displaced Peoples (IDPs).

It is the structural weakness that has been the primary reason for the failure of UNAMID in performing its core mandate, which is that of protecting civilians. The mission was an outcome of a compromise between the United Nations and the African Union. The UN Security Council viewed the partnership as a tool for securing access to the conflict zones in Darfur and as a way to get troops from African countries for the mission. Lack of sufficient funds and logistics were the two major factors that enfeebled almost all peacekeeping missions of the AU in the region. Therefore, the AU’s interest in the partnership stemmed from the huge resources at the disposal of the UN. This resulted in an asymmetric and overlapping mission in Darfur which eventually could never act promptly and appropriately.

Like UNAMID, many other regional partnership missions of the UN can also be characterised as failures. Certainly, regional and sub-regional organizations with greater local knowledge and local personnel can contribute much towards resolving conflicts and making peace. But the regional partnership for peace idea could never get translated into praxis. To bring this vision into practice, some critical issues with existing partnerships need to be fixed. Firstly, there should be a change in the mind-set of both the international and regional communities in viewing each other as partners only because there are ‘no other options.’ Most of the regional partnerships of the UN were the outcomes of compulsion, and the actors themselves were suspicious about the competence of the partnership. Secondly, it is necessary to rectify the inferior/superior attitudes among the partner institutions. Regional organizations are definitely diverse and they vary much in their capacities, and, therefore, the partners must respect each other. More innovative and flexible partnership agreements that draw on the strengths of the respective organizations and an overt definition of ‘comparative advantages’ of the organizations involved could be helpful in addressing these two issues. The third issue is regarding the lack of coordination at the operational level. This can be resolved by establishing institutional incentives and coordination objectives. Finally and most importantly, it is necessary to analyse and understand the political interest of regional powers before forging a regional partnership. In the final analysis, these are highly complex issues and not easily resolvable. Consequently, regional partnerships are likely to have limited utility in promoting peace and stability.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India. Originally published by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at http://idsa.in/idsacomments/can-stronger-regional-partnerships-un-promote-global-stability_rkumar_041116

1. The issue of cooperation between the UN and AU was first considered in the twentieth session of the General Assembly in September 1965. Then, OAU signed a cooperation agreement with the UN on 15 November 1965. The GA and SC resolutions 43/12(1988), 48/25(1993), 50/158 (1995), S/RES/2167 and S/RES/2033 emphasized the need of cooperation between the UN and regional and sub-regional organizations in Africa.

With the 2007-08 global financial crisis relegated to history, we can now ask: Have the right lessons been learned? Have the major flaws in our financial systems been remedied, or have we merely postponed another, potentially larger crisis?

Writing for the book The Global Financial Crisis and Its Aftermath (Oxford University Press, 2016), IESE?s Antonio Argandoña asserts that the financial crisis can be attributed, in large part, to ethical failings at the personal, organizational and social levels. Preventing a recurrence requires an ethical response at all three levels.

As is now common knowledge, organizations and their representatives, particularly at the board and senior management levels, got involved in some highly dubious, and in some cases downright illegal, financial practices.

But all of this happened against a backdrop of broad social acquiescence. Governments, central banks and regulatory bodies remained disinterested or incapable of applying the legal, institutional and social mechanisms that, in other circumstances, may have helped to stem the damage.

Morally Questionable Behavior

We often hear about the greed and irresponsibility on Wall Street that triggered the near collapse of the global financial system. Yet we hear much less about the cowardice and lack of moral fiber of managers who chose not to speak out for fear of jeopardizing their careers and/or remuneration.

At the same time, the level of arrogance and hubris among financiers, economists, regulators and government officials was at an all-time high at the peak of the housing boom.

The crisis clearly has a moral dimension, Argandoña says. However, moral decline cannot be the sole reason, as many of these failings have been present throughout human civilization. So, why did the crisis happen now instead of at some other point in time?

One of the main reasons is regulatory failure. The rise of unethical or fraudulent behavior in the financial sector coincided with the paring down of the usual protective mechanisms that society employs to counter the effects of immoral behavior.

In effect, our legal and regulatory institutions went from punishing corrupt behavior to encouraging or even rewarding it.

Corporate Governance Crisis

The financial crisis is also frequently referred to as a crisis of leadership or governance. Across a broad spectrum of organizations — from commercial and investment banks, to rating agencies, central banks and governments — financial malpractice was commonplace.

This explosion in financial chicanery coincided with the rise of a perverse system of incentives, which produced highly undesirable results that often went unforeseen.

A Faulty Model

However, the failures of financial institutions, regulators and governments prior to the crisis were not isolated events. Instead, they reflect flaws in the economic, anthropological and ethical models that have had a dominant influence over Western economic and business practices.

Models based on flawed assumptions led to the rise of dangerous incentive systems and weak monitoring, financial reporting and accounting. That, in turn, led to the poisoning of the entire organizational culture.

The anthropological model that inspired neoclassical economics says that, if the market is properly self-regulating, then individual actions, regulated by ethical values, become irrelevant, since the market will always produce socially optimal outcomes.

Needless to say, this belief in self-sufficient and self-regulating economic systems has suffered a serious setback in the aftermath of the crisis.

The obvious solution, says Argandoña, is regulation: The state must intervene to limit market abuses. And it must do so not only out of technical necessity, but as a moral responsibility. After all, a country’s citizens entrust their governments to protect their economic and social rights.

That said, regulation is not always enough, and at times may even exacerbate the very problems it aims to solve, says Argandoña.

The Necessity of Ethics

Solving these problems requires the rebuilding of a system of ethics that looks far beyond short-term results and compensation/rewards.

According to Argandoña, ethics creates an equilibrium among individuals, organizations and societies. There should not be different ethics for each of these realms. In fact, ethics should be a vital part of politics and management practice.

Any purely economic interpretation of the crisis, while not necessarily wrong, is incomplete, says Argandoña. Our response to the crisis should target all three levels of ethics: People should be ethical, organizations should be set up ethically and society should function in an ethical way.

In short, ethics is key, not only to understand why the crisis happened, but also to prevent a recurrence.

Dozens of young girls, rescued from Boko Haram kidnappers, were made victims again by the Nigerian soldiers and policemen assigned to protect them, according to accounts documented by investigators for Human Rights Watch.

The New York-based rights group found forty-three cases of “sexual abuse, including rape and exploitation.” Four victims told HRW they were drugged and raped. Thirty-seven said they had been coerced into sex through false marriage promises and material and financial assistance.

“It is bad enough that these women and girls are not getting much-needed support for the horrific trauma they suffered at the hands of Boko Haram,” said Mausi Segun, senior Nigeria researcher at Human Rights Watch. “It is disgraceful and outrageous that people who should protect these women and girls are attacking and abusing them.”

Victims of rape and sexual exploitation may be less likely to seek health care, including psychological counselling, due to the shame they feel, said HRW. Fewer than five of the 43 women and girls reported receiving any formal counseling after they were sexually abused.

President Muhammadu Buhari, upon learning of the girls’ allegations, said he was “worried and shocked” and ordered police to “immediately commence investigations into the issue”.

“The welfare of these most vulnerable of Nigerian citizens has been a priority of his government,” presidency spokesman Garba Shehu said, adding that the allegations raised by the HRW “are not being taken lightly”.

Human Rights Watch said it wrote to several Nigerian authorities in August requesting comment on the research findings. The minister of women affairs, Aisha Jumai Alhassan, promised in a meeting with Human Rights Watch to investigate the allegations and then respond.

In October, hundreds of people displaced by Boko Haram militants held a protest in Maiduguri, accusing officials of stealing food rations after photos were seen on social media showing food with aid agency logos being sold in shops. A spokesman for the governor disputed the charges, saying: “It is radically difficult to divert food.”

In a separate matter, the United Nations Children Fund (UNICEF) announced they have secured the release of 876 children held by Nigeria’s army and security forces.

The army routinely detains civilians who have been living in areas once ruled by the insurgents on suspicion they might be linked to militant activities. However, rights groups say there is no proper legal process for children, since they do not get formally charged and some end up in so-called rehabilitation centres, which the groups say are like prisons.

While inaugurating a new high speed train station in Ankara recently, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced to raucous supporters, chanting “we want the death penalty,” that his government is bent on reinstating capital punishment retroactively to execute those behind the abortive coup attempt in July. “Soon, our government will bring (the bill) to Parliament… It’s what the people say that matters, not what the West thinks,” Erdogan said to the crowd.

Reestablishing the death penalty would eliminate the possibility of becoming a European Union member state, something Turkey has been seeking for decades. “Thumbing his nose” at the EU, Erdogan’s statements prove that vengeance is more important to him than admission to the union, something he had pursued since he was first elected Prime Minister in 2003.

“It would immediately trigger a huge problem with the Council of Europe, which Turkey is a part of, and the EU,” Marc Pierini, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think tank headquartered in Washington, told The Media Line. “This would shut off the accession negotiations with the EU.”

The Republic of Turkey, which just celebrated its 93rd anniversary, is a country straddling both Asia and Europe with 95 percent of its population practicing Islam. The country has been an associate member of the EU since 1963 and officially applied for accession in 1987.

According to Esra Özyürek, an associate professor in contemporary Turkish studies at the London School of Economics, Turkey has wanted to join the EU since it was first established as a trade organization in the 1960s because, after World War II, the country wanted to ally itself with the capitalist world. “Turkey has always wanted to join the West and to be part of the family of Western nations,” David Kushner, a professor at Haifa University told The Media Line.

Membership to the EU would bring both political and economic benefits to Turkey.

“Economically, they would be able to trade freely and Turks would be able to freely circulate in the EU because it is a great labor market,” Özyürek said. “For many people, it would (also) guarantee political rights and freedoms.”

First created in 1950 as a means of uniting war-torn Europe, the EU, officially established in 1993, is a group of European countries that are politically and economically tied to one another. Currently there are 28 member countries. To be considered for membership, a country must adhere to certain conditions, which include having a free-market economy, a stable democracy and accepting EU legislation. As part of this, a country may not practice capital punishment.

“Imposing the death penalty is incompatible with membership of the Council of Europe,” the Council of Europe tweeted after Erdogan’s announcement.

The Turkish government officially abolished the death penalty in July 2004, just as negotiations for membership to the European Union were ramping up. In 2004, when the EU accepted 10 new member countries, the European Commission agreed to hold negotiations to consider Turkey’s accession bid; however, those negotiations have been stalled since then as some member countries, like France, Germany and Cyprus, have blocked the possibility of Turkey’s accession – all member countries have veto power.

Over the years, Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) have become less keen on EU membership as joining the union would lessen Erdogan’s power in his own country.

“It wouldn’t make any sense for the AKP to reform more in line with EU policies because that would mean having to share power and the AKP has signaled that it would not share political power at all,” Roy Karadag, the managing director of the Institute for International Studies at the University of Bremen, told The Media Line.

The motivation to join the EU, as well as the belief that it will happen, has decreased since 2004. This trend escalated following the coup attempt which saw members of the Turkish military, allegedly supporters of the self-exiled cleric Fetullah Gulen, attempt to oust Erdogan in last July.

Since then, the president and his government have cracked down – arresting and detaining at least 100,000 of its citizens accused of having ties with Gulen. Most recently, the government fired some 10,000 government officials and arrested the editor-in- chief of an opposition newspaper.

The president originally announced his support of reestablishing the death penalty less than a month after the coup attempt; however, this is the first time he has announced that he is going through the legislation necessary to change the law. Retroactively reinstating the death penalty would, most likely, end EU accession negotiations.

“There is a massive shift to authoritarianism going on here and I think that speaks for itself,” Emma Sinclair-Webb, the Turkey Director for Human Rights Watch, told The Media Line.

With Erdogan becoming increasingly authoritarian over the past few years, European politicians as well as the political elite in Turkey know that there is almost no possibility of Turkey entering the EU.

“I would say that Erdogan does not need, or want, to enter the EU,” Karadag asserted. “He has become authoritarian and everything he and the party have done over the past eight years goes against any accepted notion of being democratic.”

Karadag added that Erdogan wants the ability to say that Turkey has done everything it could to be a democracy and to become an EU member state, including defending the country against the coup plotters. Erdogan believes that reinstating the death penalty does not mean that the country is betraying democracy or Western values.

The EU had planned to introduce visa-free travel for Turkish citizens by 2017; however, with the recent arrest of the editor-in-chief of a major newspaper and Erdogan’s statements about the death penalty, the Vice President of the European Parliament, Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, was quoted saying “like this, nothing will proceed with visa-free travel.”

According to Sinclair-Webb, the possibility of the EU now accepting Turkey’s accession bid does not look too good. “We know that the bid is completely stalled and has been for a long time,” Sinclair-Webb said. “The complete crackdown (in Turkey) does nothing to revive the chances of the accession negotiations proceeding in a positive direction.”

By Katie Beiter, original source

By Rashid Hassan

Saudi Arabia and China agreed to step up cooperation on various key issues including security and counter-terrorism during talks held in Riyadh Sunday.

Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Naif and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, received a delegation led by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s special envoy Meng Jianzhu.

The two sides also reached agreement to deepen the cordial ties between Saudi Arabia and China.

The talks in Riyadh follow the signing of 15 preliminary agreements between Saudi Arabia and China in August — touching on a wide range of fields from energy to housing — during the visit of the deputy crown prince.
Meng and his delegation arrived here Saturday night.

The visit fits in with a broad reforms drive to reduce the Kingdom’s reliance on oil exports and showcases Saudi Arabia as a dynamic nation with promising opportunities for global investors.

A Chinese Embassy spokesman told Arab News that the delegation led by Meng Jianzhu, who is also a member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and head of the Commission for Political and Legal Affairs of the CPC, met King Salman at the Al-Yamamah Palace.

The crown prince held a luncheon banquet during which he and Meng discussed issues of mutual interest, especially joint cooperation in counterterrorism. A five-year cooperation plan was also signed in the field of security training.

During talks with King Salman, Meng conveyed the greetings of President Xi Jinping. The King also sent his greetings to the Chinese president.

The crown prince and several ministers attended the meeting, which also reviewed the strategic partnership and future cooperation to boost bilateral ties.

The spokesman said that the delegation also met Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, second deputy premier and defense minister.

Substantial weight gain over many years increases the risk of obesity-related cancers in men by 50 percent and in women by almost 20 percent, according to new research presented at the National Cancer Research Institute’s (NCRI) Cancer Conference in Liverpool, Monday.

Researchers at The University of Manchester and The Health eResearch Centre, looked at weight gain over many years and assessed the risk of developing obesity-related cancers.

This is a new way of looking at the long-term impact of being obese throughout a person’s life and the link to developing cancer.

In the study of approximately 300,000 people in America, including around 177,500 men and 111,500 women, researchers categorized the population into five different lifetime weight trajectories. They looked at changes in BMI between the ages of 18 and 65.

Some people gained a little weight between the ages of 18 and 65 years, while others became morbidly obese.

The population was then followed up for an average of 15 years to see who went on to develop obesity-related cancers.

It found that men who went from a BMI of around 22 to 27 had a 50 percent increased risk of developing obesity-related cancer compared to a man who stayed within a healthy weight range. And in men who went from being overweight to morbidly obese, the risk went up by 53 percent compared to the same group.

Women who went from a BMI of 23 to around 32, had a 17 percent increased risk in comparison to women whose weight started off in the healthy bracket and remained stable.

Of the 300,000 people in the study, there were around 9,400 women and 5,500 men who were diagnosed with obesity-related cancers after the age of 65.

Being overweight or obese is the second biggest preventable cause of cancer in the UK after smoking and contributes to around 18,100 cases of cancer every year. It is linked to a range of cancer types including bowel, breast, and pancreatic.

Several of the obesity-related cancer types can only affect women – for example, womb cancer and ovarian cancer.

Dr Hannah Lennon, lead author and researcher at The University of Manchester, said, “This research shows how important it is to look at weight gain over a person’s lifetime – to give a clearer picture of cancer risk through life compared to assessing someone’s BMI at a single point.”

“This study could also be really useful in public health. It could help identify people who would benefit the most from taking action to control their weight before any health problems arise – including a cancer diagnosis.”

Sir Harpal Kumar, Cancer Research UK’s chief executive said, “This is a really interesting way to look at lifetime risk of obesity-related cancers and helps us understand the effects of weight gain over time.

“It’s important that people are informed about ways to reduce their risk of cancer. And while there are no guarantees against the disease, keeping a healthy weight can help you stack the odds in your favor and has lots of other benefits too. Making small changes in eating, drinking and taking exercise that you can stick with in the long term is a good way to get to a healthy weight – and stay there.”

Dr Karen Kennedy, Director of the NCRI, said, “This study provides a deeper understanding of the health implications caused by the obesity epidemic. It helps paint the picture of how risk could accumulate over time for different people, and could provide health professionals with a means to asses an individual’s risk.”

For the first time, researchers and health experts have undertaken a comprehensive analysis of the concerning situation in the World Health Organisation European Region regarding digital marketing to children of foods high in fats, salt and sugars.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has published the report, which calls for immediate action by policy makers to recognise and address the growing issue of targeted marketing to kids through digital media.

Dr Emma Boyland, from the University’s Institute of Psychology, Health and Society, in collaboration with The Open University, WHO, University of Melbourne and Flinders University, produced the report which examines trends in media use among children, marketing methods in the new digital media landscape and children’s engagement with such marketing.

In the absence of effective regulations for digital media in many countries, children are increasingly exposed to persuasive and individually-tailored marketing techniques through, for example, social media sites and advergames. This trend persists, despite the stubbornly high rates of childhood obesity found almost universally in the WHO European region.

Food marketing has been identified by the scientific community as an important contributor to the so-called ‘obesogenic’ environment, where foods high in fats, salt and sugars are promoted extensively, are more visible, as well as cheaper and easier to obtain than healthy options. Food marketing has been consistently demonstrated to influence children’s food preferences and choices, shaping their dietary habits and increasing the risk of becoming obese.

Digital marketing offers a loophole for marketers, as there is currently little or no effective regulation and minimal efforts to control it. Furthermore, due to the ability to tailor adverts online to a specific audience, marketing online is potentially much more powerful and targeted to the individual child and their social network.

Often, parents do not see the same advertisements, nor can they observe the online activities of children and many therefore underestimate the scale of the problem.

Dr Emma Boyland, said, “The food, marketing and digital industries have access to an enormous amount of information regarding young people’s exposure to HFSS food marketing online and its influence on children’s behaviour, yet external researchers are excluded from these privately held insights, which increases the power imbalances between industry and public health.”

To address the challenges the report suggests a number of recommendations. These include States acknowledging their duty to protect children from HFSS digital marketing with statutory regulation, the extension of existing offline protection online and existing regulation of internet content being drawn on to compel private Internet platforms to remove marketing of HFSS foods.

Dr Boyland added, “Children have the right to participate in digital media; and, when they are participating, they have the right to protection of their health and privacy and to not be economically exploited.”

Never before have astrophysicists measured light of such high energy from a celestial object so far away. Around 7 billion years ago, a huge explosion occurred at the black hole in the center of a galaxy. This was followed by a burst of high-intensity gamma rays. A number of telescopes, MAGIC included, have succeeded in capturing this light. An added bonus: it was thus possible to reconfirm Einstein’s General Theory of Relativity, as the light rays encountered a less distant galaxy en route to Earth – and were deflected by this so-called gravitational lens.

The object QSO B0218+357 is a blazar, a specific type of black hole. Researchers now assume that there is a supermassive black hole at the center of every galaxy. Black holes, into which matter is currently plunging are called active black holes. They emit extremely bright jets. If these bursts point towards Earth, the term blazar is used.

Full moon prevents the first MAGIC observation

The event now described in “Astronomy & Astrophysics” took place 7 billion years ago, when the universe was not even half its present age. “The blazar was discovered initially on 14 July 2014 by the Large Area Telescope (LAT) of the Fermi satellite,” explained Razmik Mirzoyan, scientist at the Max Planck Institute for Physics and spokesperson for the MAGIC collaboration. “The gamma ray telescopes on Earth immediately fixed their sights on the blazer in order to learn more about this object.”

One of these telescopes was MAGIC, on the Canary Island of La Palma, specialized in high-energy gamma rays. It can capture photons – light particles – whose energy is 100 billion times higher than the photons emitted by our Sun and a thousand times higher than those measured by Fermi-LAT. The MAGIC scientists were initially out of luck, however: A full moon meant the telescope was not able to operate during the time in question.

Gravitational lens deflects ultra-high-energy photons

Eleven days later, MAGIC got a second chance, as the gamma rays emitted by QSO B0218+357 did not take the direct route to Earth: One billion years after setting off on their journey, they reached the galaxy B0218+357G. This is where Einstein’s General Theory of Relativity came into play.

This states that a large mass in the universe, a galaxy, for example, deflects light of an object behind it. In addition, the light is focused as if by a gigantic optical lens – to a distant observer, the object appears to be much brighter, but also distorted. The light beams also need different lengths of time to pass through the lens, depending on the angle of observation.

This gravitational lens was the reason that MAGIC was able, after all, to measure QSO B0218+357 – and thus the most distant object in the high-energy gamma ray spectrum.

“We knew from observations undertaken by the Fermi space telescope and radio telescopes in 2012 that the photons that took the longer route would arrive 11 days later,” said Julian Sitarek (University of ?ódz, Poland), who led this study. “This was the first time we were able to observe that high-energy photons were deflected by a gravitational lens.”

Doubling the size of the gamma-ray universe

The fact that gamma rays of such high energy from a distant celestial body reach Earth’s atmosphere is anything but obvious. “Many gamma rays are lost when they interact with photons which originate from galaxies or stars and have a lower energy,” sayid Mirzoyan. “With the MAGIC observation, the part of the universe that we can observe via gamma rays has doubled.”

The fact that the light arrived on Earth at the time calculated could rattle a few theories on the structure of the vacuum – further investigations, however, are required to confirm this. “The observation currently points to new possibilities for high-energy gamma ray observatories – and provides a pointer for the next generation of telescopes in the CTA project,” said Mirzoyan, summing up the situation.

A multi-faith prayer service is being held in Reno, Nevada on the evening before the General Election of November 8.

Various Christian, Muslim, Hindu, Jewish and Atheist leaders will participate in this Service; starting at seven pm at South Reno United Methodist Church (SRUMC), on Monday, November 7; which is open to all.

Besides prayers, it will include meditation, greeting one another, lighting of candles, readings, etc. Sharing the Bread of Peace together “as a symbol of community and care for one another” will also form part of the Service.

Hindu statesman Rajan Zed will read the invocation from ancient scriptures.

Reverend Dawn Flower Blundell is Senior Pastor at SRUMC, whose tagline is: “Open Hearts. Open Minds. Open Doors.”

FBI Director James Comey has told Congress that a new investigation by his agency of Hillary Clinton’s private email server has not unearthed any information that would warrant any charges being brought against the Democratic candidate.

Saying that his team “has been working around the clock,” studying emails on a laptop belonging to the husband of an aide of Hillary Clinton’s, Comey claimed the review of the additional material “from a device obtained in connection with an unrelated criminal investigation” did not change the investigators’ previous conclusion regarding Clinton’s email practices.

In July, the FBI said no charges were warranted in the case of the former secretary of state concerning her use of a private email server.

“[We] have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton,” Comey wrote in his letter on Sunday.

Since late October, the FBI director has found himself in hot water following his announcement of new “appropriate investigative steps” in the months-long investigation into Clinton’s use of a private server while she served as America’s secretary of state.

The FBI then obtained a search warrant that allowed it to scour through some 650,000 emails discovered on a laptop belonging to ex-Congressman Anthony Weiner and apparently also used by his wife, Clinton’s closest aide, Huma Abedin.

Commenting on the announcement that there would be no charges, Clinton’s campaign spokeswoman Jennifer Palmieri told reporters they were “glad that this matter is resolved.”

Earlier Sunday, the chairman of Clinton’s campaign, John Podesta, accused the FBI chief of revealing the new investigation in the first place by calling it a “mistake.”

“I think the men and women of the FBI are doing a tremendous job out here across the country, but the leakers should shut up,” Podesta said in an interview with NBC News’ Meet the Press.

House of Representatives Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi described the FBI letter as “a clean bill of health,” adding that it should “finally close the door on this Republicans sideshow.”

Secret Service agents rushed Donald Trump offstage on Saturday evening during a rally in Reno, Nevada after they determined a protester in the audience posed a threat to the Republican presidential candidate.

‘Go! Go!’ agents shouted as they whisked him away and a combination of local police and supporters wrestled a man at the front of the crowd to the ground.

A sea of bodies scattered, screams rang out and authorities dragged the man away as he kicked and strained.

As the ordeal unfolded on Saturday, the man was belligerent before Trump supporters jumped him, the source told MINA.

A witness watching the scuffle yelled ‘He’s got a gun’ before Secret Service acted and removed Trump from the stage, according to the source.

As police and good Samaritans took the man down, the crowd surged backward and strained against the press section.

‘CNN sucks!’ one man yelled. ‘You people caused this!’

Federal agents and tactical officers from Reno Police removed the man and placed him in a bathroom near a secure entrance where Trump’s motorcade and the press vehicles were staged.

Trump returned a short while later and addressed the audience as he continued his rally speech.

‘Nobody said it was going to be easy for us,’ Trump declared. ‘But we will never be stopped. Never, never be stopped.’

‘I want to thank the Secret Service. These guys are fantastic. They don’t get enough credit. They don’t get enough credit. They’re amazing people.’Trump said he had spotted the protester and claimed he was a Hillary Clinton supporter before asking security to ‘take him out.’

Trump’s Secret Service detail were able to remove the Republican presidential candidate from the Reno-Sparks Convention Center without incident.

As he returned to his speech, he thanked a group of fans near the stage who had stepped in to subdue his would-be attacker.

‘You were amazing, fellas,’ he said.

‘I saw what you were doing. That’s a tough group of people right there… Nobody messes with our people, right?’

He and his staff later made it aboard his custom Boeing 757, dubbed Trump Force One, in advance of a flight to Denver for the day’s fourth rally in as many stages.

Trump issued a brief statement before the plane took off, but shed no new light on what had happened.

‘I would like to thank the United States Secret Service and the law enforcement resources in Reno and the state of Nevada for their fast and professional response,’ Trump said.

‘I also want to thank the many thousands of people present for their unwavering and unbelievable support. Nothing will stop us – we will make America great again.’

Trump and his traveling press corps had flown five hours from coastal North Carolina to western Nevada on Saturday to appeal to rock-ribbed conservatives in the key battleground state.

His 11th-hour punches left a mark on the U.S. Senate’s most senior Democrat, just three days before Tuesday’s election.

‘Don’t let crazy, broken Harry Reid and his corrupt political machine decide this election,’ Trump said, painting the retiring Nevada senator as ‘a political hack.’

The Republican presidential nominee has warned his devoted followers for nearly a year that America’s elections – both primaries and general – are ‘rigged’, with him getting specific in Reno.

‘It’s being reported that certain key Democratic polling locations in Clark County were kept open for hours and hours beyond closing time to bus and bring Democratic voters in,’ he claimed, referring to the Las Vegas metro area on the state’s southern tip.

‘Folks, it’s a rigged system. It’s a rigged system and we’re going to beat it. We’re going to beat it.’

Saturday’s incident marked the second time Secret Service had to intervene to get Trump out of harm’s way.

By Mariya Cheresheva

Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov said his GERB party will quit the government if his party’s candidate in the presidential election loses the second round on November 13.

Borissov issued the threat after the first exit polls on Sunday night suggested that General Rumen Radev, the ex-air force chief nominated by the Bulgarian Socialist Party, BSP, came first in the first round of the election, ahead of Tsetska Tsacheva, the candidate of Borissov’s centre-right GERB party.

Turnout was estimated at over 52 per cent by polling agencies.

Voting continues outside Bulgaria, with media reports of long queues to cast ballots in the UK, Germany, Russia and other countries in Europe and around the world.

Different polling agencies meanwhile estimated Radev’s lead against Tsacheva at between 0.5 and 5 per cent.

Alpha Research said the Socialist-backed candidate won 24.6 per cent of the votes, as compared to 21.5 for GERB’s nominee.

Gallup International, another main polling agency in Bulgaria, gave Radev a bigger lead against Tsacheva – 24.9 per cent compared to 22.3 per cent.

“Today Bulgarians said ‘no’ to apathy and voted for change. Bulgarians have taken democracy in their own hands, because it belongs to them,” Radev said on Sunday evening.

He promised to take “the fight until the end” and called on all Bulgarians living in the country and abroad to support him in the second round of the presidential elections on November 13.

Experts see the risk of a political crisis if Borissov acts on his threats to pull his party out of government if Tsacheva does not win the presidential vote.

“If we lose the second round, we are going into early elections,” the Prime Minister said.

Tsacheva insisted that gap between her and Radev was minor and that the results could change by the end of the election.

The BSP refused to comment on the possible resignation of Borissov’s government but declared its readiness to run in early parliamentary elections.

The exit polls also showed most Bulgarian citizens supported the three questions put to them in a national referendum which took place together with presidential elections.

The introduction of majoritarian voting attracted the support of 79 per cent of voters, mandatory voting was backed by 70.6 per cent, while limiting the state subsidies for political parties was supported by 80 per cent of Bulgarians, Gallup International Bulgaria’s preliminary data showed.

Turnout in the referendum, aimed at “shaking up” the political system, was estimated at a little above 50 per cent, so it remains unclear whether the results crossed the threshold to be deemed mandatory.

Final results of the first round of the presidential elections are expected on Monday. Among the other candidates, the nationalist-backed candidate Krasimir Karakachanov was backed by over 14 per cent of Bulgarians, followed by businessman Veselin Mareshki with over 10 per cent.

Different polls placed two candidates in fifth place – Traicho Traikov, candidate of the right-wing Reformist Bloc and ex-prime minister Plamen Oresharski, who was supported by the ethnic-Turkish dominated party Movement for Rights and Freedoms.

By Chayanika Saxena*

In the background of flaring violence and spiralling insecurity, peace in Afghanistan continues to be an elusive desire. However far it might appear from the reach of a country that has been at the centre of imperialist (Tsarist Russia and Imperial Britain), ideological (Communist USSR and Capitalist US) and regional (India, Pakistan, Russia, Iran and China) ‘great games’, peace is a desire harboured by the common man and woman in Afghanistan nevertheless.

The recent signing of the peace deal between the National Unity Government of Afghanistan and the militant organization, Hezb-e-Islami (Gulbuddin Hekmatyar) (HIG) has been touted as country’s first step towards peace. However, many would like to disagree with the ring that has been given to this deal by the government and its (increasingly weary) international patrons. The people of Afghanistan have registered their protest against the deal which the government and the country stand to gain less from. Instead, it is being seen as a ‘sellout’; one that has given exceedingly high privileges (and amnesty) to ‘the butcher of Kabul’ and his coterie. Yes, that is what Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the leader of HIG is called. Or, as the alternative goes, ‘Rocketyaar’ for the sheer number of rockets he had sent raining down on Kabul in the bid to capture it between 1992 and 1996.

The deal is being addressed as a ‘precedent setter’, however exactly what kind of ‘precedent’ it is supposed to set is yet to become clear. It needs to be considered that HIG was (is?) a relatively small militant organization, incomparable to the resources, strength and even the might Taliban enjoys. In this light, a peace deal with HIG might not create the desired domino effect. On the contrary, it has managed to miff the Taliban further which has declared the peace deal an ‘act of treachery’ to the ‘cause of jihad’. An unwanted precedent it has set, at least according to the people of Afghanistan, is that even the most heinous of atrocities and their perpetrators can be let off the hook.

The peace deal has also underscored ethnic divisions that are rife in Afghanistan. The peace deal with Hekmatyar, a Pashtun, has been defended by those largely identifying with this ethnicity by pointing out that the hands of other leaders are no less smeared in blood. Communities other those above-mentioned have revolted against the deal for the targeted discrimination HIG had perpetrated during, and even after the civil war.

The question facing peace in Afghanistan is not to sift the less butchers from the greater butchers; it is to ensure that those who were maimed at the altar of political and other interests are given due justice. Peace attained at the cost of justice has not and cannot last long.

*Chayanika Saxena is a researcher on Afghanistan, specializing in its domestic politics. She can be contacted at: chayanika.saxena@spsindia.in

By Sudip Bhattacharyya*

According to Hindu philosophy, everyone is born with the duty and obligation of ‘Pitririn’, ‘Rishirin’ and ‘Devarin’. The first means obligation to the family and ancestry, the second means obligation to the heritage and tradition and the last, formulated in modern terms, will boil down to obligation to the environment. The overall obligation is to repay more than what one has got so that the family, the heritage and the environment get more rich. And to be able to repay adequately, individuals need to be imparted required education and skill.

To the Western educated, the undertaking of education is necessary in a society to make a person productive so as to be useful to society and thereby earn his or her livelihood.

True education is one that is experienced, tasted and digested so that it becomes one with the blood, and not an external establishment. The central purpose of all education is that the nation as a whole should become self-sufficient in clear thinking and appropriate skills.

Most definitions of education essentially speak of building of character comprising sincerity, honesty and integrity and then acquiring skill in order to earn livelihood. It is really the parental education that can teach and help character-building whereas the institutional education does skill building. Responsibility towards the state and the nature are to be learnt in both the platforms.

The present system of institutional education in India has many drawbacks and, therefore, needs the following remedial measures:

• Focus on skill-based education;
• Rewarding creativity, original thinking, research and innovation; and
• Getting better people to teach.

The internet has created the possibility where the performance of a teacher need not be restricted to a small classroom. Now the performance of a teacher can be opened up for the world to see. The better teacher will be more popular, and acquire more students.

We can remove road-blocks by:

• Increasing capacity and capability of the existing system to ensure equitable access for all;
• Maintaining quality and relevance; and
• Creating effective convergence between school education and the government’s skill development efforts.

Advantage India: As compared to Western economies where there is a burden of an ageing population, India has a unique 20-25 year window of opportunity called the “demographic dividend”. This “demographic dividend” means that as compared to other large developing and developed countries, India has a higher proportion of working age population vis-à-vis its entire population.

According to the Labour Ministry’s Employment-Unemployment Survey, the rate of unemployment in India in 2015-16 is 5 per cent. Moreover, there are:

• 33,000 new job seekers per day;
• 231,000 new job seekers per week;
• 1,000,000 new job seekers per month; and
• 12,000,000 new job seekers per year!

And the pace at which we are creating jobs has been only 4.4 million from 2009-2015 … This year’s number (as recorded by the Labour Ministry) is at 0.15 million — among the lowest.

However, an estimated 50-70 million jobs will be created in India over the next five years and about 75 per cent to 90 per cent of these additional employment avenues will require some vocational training.

For India, the difficulty to fill up the jobs is 48 per cent, which is above the global standard of 34 per cent in 2012. India lags far behind in imparting skill-training as compared to other countries. Only 10 per cent of the total workforce in the country receives skill-training. Further, 80 per cent of the entrants into the workforce do not have the opportunity for skill-training.

The government is providing thrust on self-employment. Under the aegis of the Pradhan Mantri MUDRA Yojana (PMMY), the interventions have been named ’Shishu’, ’Kishor’ and ‘Tarun’ to signify the stage of growth/development and funding needs of the beneficiary micro unit/entrepreneur and also to provide a reference point for the next phase of graduation/growth to look forward to.

The financial limits for these schemes are:

a. Shishu: Covering loans up to Rs 50,000/-
b. Kishor: Covering loans above Rs 50,000/- and up to Rs 5 lakh
c. Tarun: Covering loans above Rs 5 lakh and up to Rs 10 lakh

MUDRA’s delivery channel is conceived to be through the route of refinance primarily to Banks/NBFCs/MFIs.

At the same time, there is a need to develop and expand the delivery channel at the ground level. In this context, there are already in existence a large number of ‘Last Mile Financiers’ in the form of companies, trusts, societies, associations and other networks which are providing informal finance to small businesses.

The overall performance of the Yojana indicates that the target has been achieved during the year. As against the target of Rs 1,22,188 crore, the Banks and MFIs together have disbursed Rs 1,32,954.73 crore — thereby achieving 109 per cent.

The achievements by Public Sector Banks indicate a substantial credit growth in this segment. Based on the data collected from the PSBs, it was seen that the disbursement by these banks in this segment was around Rs 33,000 crore during 2014-15 and recorded a growth of 70 per cent during 2015-16.

The other lending institutions have also achieved high credit growth in this segment due to the initiative of the Pradhan Mantri MUDRA Yojana.

In India, about 12 million people join the workforce each year comprising highly skilled (which constitute a minuscule part), skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled work force. The last category constitutes the majority of the population entering the workforce. However, the current skill capacity of the country is about four million. Hence, skilling and technical education capacity needs to be enhanced to about 15 million.

A growing trend, especially evident in new and evolving “high-tech” jobs, is the demand for workers with a combination of technical training, formal education and “soft” skills. In addition to job-specific knowledge and skills, employers today look for a broader set of skills — often called employability skills — in all workers.

The Conference Board of Canada developed the critical employability skills profile for the Canadian workforce, which is as follows:

• Academic: Provides the foundation for good communication skills, a capacity to analyse, evaluate and solve problems and to learn new assignments and new ways of doing the job when technology changes;
• Personal management skills: Positive attitude, ability to take responsibility and be accountable, ability to deal with changes in the workplace and be innovative, and respect for others; and
• Teamwork skills: The skills needed to work with others on a job and to achieve the best results.

In the current scenario, skill-building in India can be viewed as an instrument to improve the effectiveness and contribution of labour to overall production. It is an important ingredient to push the production possibility frontier outward and to take the growth rate of the economy to a higher trajectory. Skill-building could also be seen as an instrument to empower the individual and improve his/her social acceptance or value.

In the context of achieving the necessary ‘scale’ and ‘speed’, the following solutions could be the way ahead in providing a conducive environment for India to meet its skill development goals:

• Targeting skill development at all levels of the ‘skill pyramid’;
• Implementing Vocational Education in schools;
• Creating a large talent pool through Modular Employable Skills;
• Ensuring Quality in Delivery;
• Employing technology to achieve scale;
• Formulation of institutional mechanisms for content formation, delivery, and assessment;
• Expediting the formulation of Sector Skill Councils; and
• Setting up of a National Human Resource Market Information System (a National Skills Exchange).

The National Skill Development Mission was officially launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on July 15, 2015 on the occasion of World Youth Skills Day. The Mission has been developed to create convergence across sectors and states in terms of skill-training activities.

Further, to achieve the vision of ‘Skilled India’, the National Skill Development Mission would not only consolidate and coordinate skilling efforts, but also expedite decision-making across sectors to achieve skilling at scale with speed and standards.

*Sudip Bhattacharyya is a former banker and a commentator on contemporary issues. Comments and suggestions on this article can be sent on: editor@spsindia.in

By Sanjay Kumar Kar*

India-China relations have been severely impacted by China’s open support for Pakistan on many fronts. One of the important areas where China seems to be least worried is cross-border terrorism affecting countries like India and Afghanistan. India has been a victim of cross-border terrorism for many years — the most recent being the September 18, 2016 Uri attack sponsored by its neighbouring country Pakistan.

China’s stand on terrorism is baffling and it pains India more than any other country. New Delhi has been pressing the United Nations (UN) to declare Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar — operating from Pakistan — as an international terrorist who poses serious threat to humanity and disrupts peace and tranquility in the subcontinent. Unfortunately, Beijing has consistently blocked the Indian move. On technical ground, China has succeeded twice in delaying the UN’s decision on Masood Azhar.

China’s deliberate tactics of blocking India’s progress in international fora is quite evident. In June 2016 at Seoul, Beijing successfully blocked New Delhi’s bid for membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).

Pakistan may be China’s natural ally but India is one of the biggest trade partners of China. While China-Pakistan total trade stood at $12 billion in 2014-15, China-India trade was valued at $72 billion in the same year. During the period under consideration, China’s export value to Pakistan reached just $10 billion compared to export value of $60.4 billion to India. In short, for all practical purposes, India is 6 times valuable for the Chinese economy than Pakistan.

India’s trade deficit with China has been widening. It reached a high of $52.7 billion in 2015-16 and the April-July 2016 figure has already reached $15.9 billion. China’s ability to produce low-cost products addresses affordability issues of Indian consumers. As a result, the market in India is flooded with Chinese products.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has time and gain emphasised that terrorism has no boundary and religion. Beijing must realise that the global community rejects any form of terrorism.

All members of SAARC, except Pakistan, extended solidarity to the victims of the Uri attack and took a strong position against terrorism. Now Beijing should accept that any form of support, including diplomatic and moral support to any country promoting factories of terror to breed terrorist for export purpose, must be stopped.

During the 8th BRICS Summit in Goa (October 15-16, 2016), Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s message on cross-border terror was loud and clear, which is clearly reflected in the Goa Declaration, Point Nos. 57-59.

Hopefully, Beijing will take the Goa declaration very seriously and acts against terror-harbouring countries.

It is in China’s interest to carefully choose between support for free trade or cross-border terror in the region. For the time being, its actions suggest that Beijing is interested in both. On the one hand, China is pressing for free trade area between BRICS nations and, on the other, it is protecting Pakistan for many wrong reasons.

China generates trade surplus through exporting a wide variety of products to India and reinvests some part of the surplus in Pakistan. Some of the major products categories that China exports to India include telecom instruments, computer hardware, fertilizers, organic chemicals and pharmaceuticals, plastic, iron & steel and ceramic.

In a sense, India indirectly funds Chinese projects in Pakistan, including the China-Pak Economic Corridor passing through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

The presence of China-made products in India is growing day by day. During the festive season, one could easily find China-made Indian idols and firecrackers dominating local markets. Often these China-made products offer cost advantage to traders, retailers and customers — resulting in high demand for Chinese products.

Many favour a blanket ban on Chinese products to reduce the Chinese trade invasion impacting small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) in India. However, with India being a member of WTO, such a ban is technically not permissible and feasible.

The government is equally concerned about widening the trade deficit with China and impact of Chinese goods on domestic SMEs.

Some of the best possible solutions include:
(a) Strengthening domestic manufacturing,
(b) Making domestic manufacturing globally competitive,
(c) Promoting innovations & start-up culture, and
(d) Creating manufacturing-cum-trading hubs.

The Modi government has already started many path-breaking initiatives like Make in India, Start-up & Stand-up India and Skill India to address the anomalies to make India a manufacturing hub.

These collective initiatives are going to strengthen the manufacturing sector and enhance global competitiveness of Indian firms. And, within a decade, India would likely emerge as a major global trading hub which may push China to revisit its own stand on terror.

*Sanjay Kumar Kar is Head, Department of Management Studies, Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Petroleum Technology, Rae Bareli, Uttar Pradesh, India.