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Increased Hurricane Risk To Northeast United States

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New research published by the EU-funded HURRICANE project has highlighted how the north eastern coast of the USA could be struck by more frequent and more powerful hurricanes in the future due to shifting weather patterns.

Over the past 450 years, hurricanes have gradually moved northwards from the western Caribbean towards northern North America, according to the research funded through the HURRICANE project, led by the UK’s Durham University.

The project team suggest that this change in hurricane trajectories has been caused by the expansion of atmospheric circulation belts driven by increasing carbon dioxide emissions. This is bad news for major cities such as New York and Boston situated on the north eastern seaboard as they could now come under increased threat from future hurricanes and will need to better prepare themselves for their potential impact.

Published in the journal ‘Scientific Reports’ in November 2016, the study saw researchers reconstruct hurricane rainfall for the western Caribbean dating back over four centuries by analysing the chemical composition of a stalagmite collected from a cave in southern Belize. They found that the average number of hurricanes at the Belize site decreased over time. When the hurricane history of Belize was compared with documentary hurricane records from locations such as Florida and Bermuda, this showed that Atlantic (Cape Verde) hurricanes were moving to the north rather than decreasing in total numbers.

Impact of industrialisation

In particular, the researchers found that even though natural warming over the centuries had some impact on shifting hurricane tracks, the research team found that hurricane activity in the western Caribbean decreased markedly in the late nineteenth century. This coincides with a major industrial boom as the region was rapidly integrated into the growing world economy. This economic growth saw an increasing level of carbon dioxide and sulphate aerosol emissions into the atmosphere.

The research team outlined how initial regional cooling of the Northern Hemisphere due to increased industrial aerosol emissions should have pushed the hurricane tracks southwards since rapid industrialisation. However, rising amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide had overridden this effect by expanding the Hadley cell, a pattern of circulating air in the Earth’s tropical belt. This subsequently pushed hurricane tracks further north, away from the Caribbean towards the US north eastern seaboard. Importantly, the research suggests that from the late nineteenth century, manmade emissions have become the main driver behind shifting hurricane tracks by altering the position of global weather systems.

Sandy sets a precedent

In 2012, Hurricane Sandy struck the Caribbean and much of the eastern US seaboard, continuing as far north as the eastern coastal Canadian provinces. A large number of US states were affected by Sandy, with New York and New Jersey suffering the most. In total 233 people died as a result of the storm and the damage caused was said to have run into tens of billions of dollars.

Dr Lisa Baldini, the study’s lead author commented: ‘Given the devastation caused by Hurricane Sandy, it is important that plans are put in place to protect against the effects of similarly destructive storms which could potentially occur more often in the future.’

Co-author Dr James Baldini added: ‘Although hurricane tracks have gradually moved northwards away from the western Caribbean, rising sea surface temperatures could promote the development of cyclonic storms within the western Caribbean… however, increased sea surface temperatures also provide extra energy, potentially fuelling larger storms. We therefore need to prepare for the effects of more frequent landfalls of larger storms along the north east coast of the United States and stronger storms impacting the Caribbean.’

Source: CORDIS


Chasing High Interest Rate Currencies Offers No Free Lunch

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The simplest way to profit from currency trading is to use the currency of a country that has low interest rate and invest in a currency of high interest rate country. But theory isn’t always to practice in real-life trading.

Vitaly Orlov’s doctoral dissertation in Finance “Essays on Currency Anomalies” explores one of the most prominent recent phenomena – currency trading.

“Currency trading is a big deal in the world of global investments,” said Orlov, “as volume of transactions in the global currency market on some days reaches four trillion U.S. dollars, about 12 times more than that of all the world’s stock markets combined.”

His research provides new insights into the nature of the foreign exchange market anomalies.

“In theory this should not be possible. Economists would tell you that it is irrelevant where you invest because changes in spot exchange rate will anyway exactly offset your gains from difference in interest rates between two countries. However, this strategy, also known as carry trade, has been a profitable way to invest for decades, said Orlov who will defend his doctoral thesis at the University of Vaasa, Finland.

In his dissertation, Orlov argues that carry trade profitability does not come at no costs for investors.

Carry trade profitability depends on a country’s political risk

“I have found that chasing high interest rates currencies offers no free lunch. In other words, currency carry trades are risky. I show that sovereign solvency risk lies at heart of the profitability of carry trades,” he explained.

According to Orlov, high interest rate currencies expose you to more risk, as they deliver low carry trade returns at times of high solvency risk, whereas low interest currencies provide a hedge against the risk. Orlov’s research shows that solvency risk factor alone can explain most of the return variation across currencies.

Further, his dissertation explores the risk profile of individual currency carry trades and finds that carry trade profitability depends on a country’s political risk.

“Political risk effect originates as a component of government actions and is more pronounced in emerging economies and in countries with high interest rates. This finding lends additional supports for the risk-based view on currency trading and warns currency traders of potentially serious risk,” Orlov said.

Cross-market links should not be neglected

Orlov’s study examines the effect of equity market conditions on returns of currency momentum and carry trade anomalies. Momentum is a strategy where you go long in past winner and short past losers.

“Results show that equity market illiquidity explains the evolution of currency momentum strategy payoffs, but not carry trade. I show that currency momentum delivers low returns following months of high equity market illiquidity,” said Orlov, “these findings indicate that one should not neglect the cross-market links between currency anomalies on the one hand and stock market conditions on the other.”

Finally, Orlov encourages investors to take into account the temporal structure of correlations between currencies when bundling them up into portfolios as doing so brings significant diversification benefits and some exploitable patterns in exchange rate movements.

Why Famed Atheist Stephen Hawking Is On Pontifical Academy

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By Andrea Gagliarducci

Stephen Hawking’s visit to the Vatican this week has raised curiosity, with some asking what exactly the famed astrophysicist and self-proclaimed atheist was doing in the heart of the Catholic Church.

But for the Vatican, his visit was nothing out of the ordinary. Hawking is a member of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences – which includes 80 of the most brilliant scientists in the world – and he was in Vatican City for the group’s annual meeting.

This year’s conference was focused on “Science and Sustainability.” Hawking himself gave a talk on “The Origin of the Universe,” the topic that has earned him world renown.

Religious belief – Catholic or otherwise – is not a criterion for membership in the Pontifical Academy. The group’s president, Werner Arber, a former Nobel Prize Laureate in Medicine, is a Protestant. And members of the Academy are Catholics, atheists, Protestants and members of other religions.

This open membership policy exists because the Pontifical Academy is conceived as a place where science and faith can meet and discuss. It is not a confessional forum, but a place where it is possible to have an open discussion and examine future scientific developments.

The Academy was founded back in 1603 by Prince Federico Cesi with Pope Clement VII’s blessing, and its first leader was Galileo Galilei. When Prince Cesi died, the Academy was shut down. Pius IX refounded it in 1847, but the Academy was then embodied in the Kingdom of Italy after the fall of the Pontifical State. In 1936, Pius XI founded the Academy once more, giving it the current name and a statute that Paul VI updated in 1976 and St. John Paul II updated once more in 1986.

Scrolling through the lists of the members of the Academy over the course of the years, one can find many Nobel Prize Laureates, some of them already part of the Pontifical Academy when they won the Prize, some who became laureates after their membership to the Academy.

Among the Nobel Prize Laureates who were part of the Pontifical Academic are Niels Bohr, Rita Levi Montalcini, Werner Heisenberg, Alexander Fleming, and Carlo Rubbia.

For academy chancellor Archbishop Marcelo Sanchez Sorondo, the period of the 1930s was one of “the most exciting of the Academy.”

One of the members during that time was Max Planck, Nobel Prize Laureate for Physics in 1918 and initiator of the studies on quantum physics. It was Max Planck who warned Pius XII about the possible consequences of nuclear war.

Planck’s warnings inspired some of Pius XII’s magisterium. Speaking in front of the Pontifical Academy for Science Nov. 30, 1941, the Pope said that “war is lacerating the world and is employing all available technological resources to destroy it.” The Pope noted that science can be a double-edged sword in the hands of men, capable of both healing and killing. He mentioned the “incredible venture of men committed in the research on nuclear energy and on nuclear transformations.”

Then, delivering a speech to the same Academy Feb. 21, 1943, Pius XI made an appeal to the Heads of State: “Though we cannot still think to take a technical profit out of that stormy (nuclear) process, this same process paves the way to a series of opportunities, so that the possibility of the construction of a uranium-powered machine cannot be considered a mere utopia.”

The Pope added that “it should be important not to let this process happen, but rather to halt the process with proper chemical means,” because “otherwise a dangerous catastrophe could take place not only in that place, but in the whole planet.”

Meetings of the Pontifical Academy for Science discuss topics on the cutting edge of science. For example, the Pontifical Academy has discussed the “Higgs boson” many times. The elementary particle was finally discovered in 2015, but scientists of the CERN of Geneva anticipated its imminent discovery at a 2011 gathering on subnuclear physics held at Casina Pio IV, the Academy’s headquarters.

In a certain sense, the Academy is a bridge between science, faith and the world. It proves that scientific knowledge does not exclude the presence of God.

“The scientist,” Archbishop Sanchez has said, “discovers things he had not put there. Questioning who placed those things there is a theological question: the scientist just discovers them, the believer sees in them the presence of God.”

The archbishop also recounted that he asked Hawking how he could maintain that God does not exist, if he had reached this conclusion as a scientist or on the basis of his experience of life. And, he said, “Hawking had to recognize that his affirmation had nothing to do with science.”

This is one of just many anecdotes that has arisen from the Academy, giving evidence that the Vatican is not an enemy to science, but a place where debate on scientific progress has long been both encouraged and actively promoted.

During his conference at Casina Pio IV, Stephen Hawking paid homage to Msgr. George Lemaitre, president of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences from 1960 to 1966. Hawking said that Msgr. Lemaitre was the real father of the “Big Bang Theory,” thus dismissing the common belief that the father of the theory was the U.S. naturalized physicist George Gamow.

“Georges Lemaitre was the first who proposed a model according to which the universe had a very dense beginning. He, and not George Gamow, is the father of Big Bang,” Hawking said.

It’s no wonder, then, that Hawking will take part in an academic session on Dec. 2 marking the 50th anniversary of Lemaitre’s death. The event, to be held at the Academy of Belgium in Italy, will be concluded by Cardinal Gerhard Ludwig Mueller, prefect of the Congregation of the Doctrine of the Faith.

India: Church Excluded From Helping Bhopal Gas Victims

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Church leaders working in the central Indian city of Bhopal that witnessed a horrendous industrial accident 32 years ago say children continue to be born with deformities but their offer for help is not welcomed.

“We have come across birth deformities and other ailments especially among the children born to affected parents,” Archbishop Leo Cornelio of Bhopal told ucanews.com.

Bhopal Archdiocese “definitely wanted to help” such people but because of a “lack of support from the government we are unable to support them,” he said.

Some 40 tons of the poisonous gas escaped Dec. 2-3 night in 1984 from a chemical plant in the outskirts of Madhya Pradesh state capital of Bhopal.

It killed some 3,000 people in a matter of hours, and thousands more the following days.

In order to work among the affected, agencies need government permits and licenses but the church’s offer to work among them are always neglected.

“The church with its rich experience and dedicated manpower could help the gas affected suffering people, but the administration seems to be not in favor of involving us,” Archbishop Cornelio said.

The state is run by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party that Christian leaders say condones much of the anti-Christian violence in the state.

Bangladesh: New Strategies Developed After Dhaka Terror Instances – OpEd

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We would like to draw your attention to emerging terror instances these days, and to the common political solutions to these unpleasant events all over the world. We observe with amazement and horror that there is a ruthless method as applied earlier by Russians for centuries, which has come into regular solution, that every country authorities have unanimously accepted everywhere in the world. The human source that is lost in the battle of the Russians is worthless. What is important is total destruction of the enemy. Russians spend all their human, equipment and material resources to win the war.

In 1943, in the world’s biggest tank fight ever seen before, total 1961 Russian tanks were destroyed against 760 German tanks in the Kursk battle. Germans lost the war and withdrawn. Germans could not replace their lost tanks because their homeland factories were bombed. On the other side, Russians produced far better models of the tanks they lost in battle in the five factories located away from the war zone which were built behind the Ural mountains. They put them on the battlefield in a fast pace. During the 1945 Berlin Siege, total 81 thousand Russian soldiers and 90-100 thousand German soldiers were killed.

In the case of hostage taking in the Russian strategy, there is no point to care for in loss of a young, old, children men women in the pledge. All the hostages may die. What is important is that the total eradication of terrorists. All terrorists must be destroyed in the end. In 2002 Moscow Dubrovka theater and in 2004 Chechen Beslan school hostage taking events, large number of hostages died, while all terrorists have been killed.

In Western societies earlier, negotiation with terrorists were the key in terror incidents. There were professional negotiators, psychologists employed to save hostages. Authorities concluded that these humanitarian efforts were futile, terrorists do not care. Terrorists do not end their wishes. Although international community rejected at first, ruthless procedure started with Israeli experience in 1971 Munich. In year 1971, all Israeli athletes were taken hostage. Terrorists killed them all in Munich Olympics. Israel ceased negotiating with the terrorists after all. In year 1976, in Uganda Entebbe surprise attack, most of the hostages were rescued, all of the terrorists were killed without any negotiation.

On the days of 1-2 July 2016, all six-terrorists were killed in Dhaka Bangladesh, while 20-foreign hostages and 2-policemen were also killed. It is now common practice that there will be no more negotiations with terrorists. The security forces are killing all, while the hostages are also killed.

Nowadays, the strategy of attacking by all means is the key attempt. As copied from Russian practice, the main target is to destroy the enemy at all costs. Media and internet communications are being censored to remove the possibility of any negotiations.

In last 20-June 2016 Ataturk airport attack, terrorists did not take any hostage. Terrorists blew themselves up. In Bangladesh 1-July event, terrorist who took foreigners hostage in a café in Dhaka, were all young educated religious, university students. They were children of wealthy families in their normal lives. In Dhaka, we are not talking about poor, uneducated comrades. During intervention of the security forces, terrorists and hostages all died in Dhaka.

Now we are entering into a new turn. The war on terror will be very cruel. The more you hesitate, the more vulnerable you are. During WW2, we had experienced rulers in this country, to avoid war, not to spare any soldier, any father. Our kids did not loose their fathers. We had difficulties but not war destruction. The time has come for democracy in our geography. It is differently applied than any classical all-inclusive western application. The new brutal cruel strategies in the parliamentary struggle all over the world will force them to enforce the new obligations. New power rules will bend the arm of opposition. The new rules will force to comply with their demands.

The Führer of Wehrmacht Germany had no post-secondary education. He was earning his life in post-World War I as an humble painter before joining Nazi party. He ended the 1st World War with the rank of corporal with iron star metal. When he went to jail, there he wrote a book, “Main Kampf”. The Nazi party, which was headed by “Führer”, in 1933, took 33% of the all votes to win the political power. They moved Germany to the second great world war, They had wide range of talent pool with professors and businessmen at their disposal. When the Führer was in his Berlin shelter in 1945, he said, “Mighty German people have chosen me, they can die because I came to power to rule them.” So you as voters are responsible from the politicians you choose. They have to give you an answer for every decision they make. They can not act as they wish. They have to be countable. You have to monitor them at all times by all means.

At the 2016 METU university graduation ceremony, may we remind you of a famous poster at the hands of new graduate students in Revolution stadium, “It is important not to graduate from this school, but it is very important to survive in this country”. If any similar event happens near you, leave that place as quickly as possible. That is why Embassies warn their compatriots, never enter dangerous areas, because it is very difficult to get out.

Egyptian Queen Nefertari’s Mummified Remains Identified

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A team of international archaeologists believe a pair of mummified legs on display in an Italian museum may belong to Egyptian Queen Nefertari – the favourite wife of the Pharaoh Ramses II.

The team, which included Dr Stephen Buckley and Professor Joann Fletcher from the University of York’s Department of Archaeology, used radiocarbon dating, anthropology, palaeopathology, genetics and chemical analysis to identify the remains.

They conclude that “the most likely scenario is that the mummified knees truly belong to Queen Nefertari”.

As the favourite wife of the pharaoh Ramses II, Nefertari was provided with a beautifully decorated tomb in the Valley of the Queens to which Professor Fletcher was recently given access.

Although plundered in ancient times, the tomb, first excavated by Italian archaeologists in 1904, still contained objects which were sent to the Egyptian Museum in Turin.

This included a pair of mummified legs which could have been part of a later interment as was often the case in other tombs in the region. But as the legs had never been scientifically investigated, it was decided to undertake the recent study to find out if the legs could actually represent all that remained of one of Egypt’s most legendary queens.

The study, published in the journal Plos One, revealed that the legs are those of an adult woman of about 40 years of age.

Dr Buckley’s chemical analysis also established that the materials used to embalm the legs are consistent with 13th Century BC mummification traditions, which when taken in conjunction with the findings of the other specialists involved, led to the identification.

Professor Fletcher said: “This has been the most exciting project to be part of, and a great privilege to be working alongside with some of the world’s leading experts in this area.

“Both Stephen and myself have a long history studying Egypt’s royal mummies, and the evidence we’ve been able to gather about Nefertari’s remains not only complements the research we’ve been doing on the queen and her tomb but really does allow us to add another piece to the jigsaw of what is actually known about Egyptian mummification”.

Reversal? Saturated Fat Could Be Good For You

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A new Norwegian diet intervention study (FATFUNC), performed by researchers at the KG Jebsen center for diabetes research at the University of Bergen, raises questions regarding the validity of a diet hypothesis that has dominated for more than half a century: that dietary fat and particularly saturated fat is unhealthy for most people.

The researchers found strikingly similar health effects of diets based on either lowly processed carbohydrates or fats. In the randomized controlled trial, 38 men with abdominal obesity followed a dietary pattern high in either carbohydrates or fat, of which about half was saturated. Fat mass in the abdominal region, liver and heart was measured with accurate analyses, along with a number of key risk factors for cardiovascular disease.

“The very high intake of total and saturated fat did not increase the calculated risk of cardiovascular diseases,” said professor and cardiologist Ottar Nygård who contributed to the study.

“Participants on the very-high-fat diet also had substantial improvements in several important cardiometabolic risk factors, such as ectopic fat storage, blood pressure, blood lipids (triglycerides), insulin and blood sugar.”

High quality food is healthier

Both groups had similar intakes of energy, proteins, polyunsaturated fatty acids, the food types were the same and varied mainly in quantity, and intake of added sugar was minimized.

“We here looked at effects of total and saturated fat in the context of a healthy diet rich in fresh, lowly processed and nutritious foods, including high amounts of vegetables and rice instead of flour-based products,” said PhD candidate Vivian Veum.

“The fat sources were also lowly processed, mainly butter, cream and cold-pressed oils.”

Total energy intake was within the normal range. Even the participants who increased their energy intake during the study showed substantial reductions in fat stores and disease risk.

“Our findings indicate that the overriding principle of a healthy diet is not the quantity of fat or carbohydrates, but the quality of the foods we eat,” says PhD candidate Johnny Laupsa-Borge.

Saturated fat increases the “good” cholesterol

Saturated fat has been thought to promote cardiovascular diseases by raising the “bad” LDL cholesterol in the blood. But even with a higher fat intake in the FATFUNC study compared to most comparable studies, the authors found no significant increase in LDL cholesterol. Rather, the “good” cholesterol increased only on the very-high-fat diet.

“These results indicate that most healthy people probably tolerate a high intake of saturated fat well, as long as the fat quality is good and total energy intake is not too high. It may even be healthy,” said Ottar Nygård.

“Future studies should examine which people or patients may need to limit their intake of saturated fat,” assistant professor Simon Nitter Dankel pointed out, who led the study together with the director of the laboratory clinics, professor Gunnar Mellgren, at Haukeland university hospital in Bergen, Norway.

“But the alleged health risks of eating good-quality fats have been greatly exaggerated. It may be more important for public health to encourage reductions in processed flour-based products, highly processed fats and foods with added sugar,” he said.

Majority Of Arab Populations Critical Of EU

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The majority of people in Arab countries are critical of the European Union (EU), according to a new study of the Cluster of Excellence “Religion and Politics”.

“In almost all of the countries included in the study, a minority of respondents – between 10 and 45 per cent – see the EU as positive”, said Prof. Dr. Bernd Schlipphak, political scientist from the Cluster of Excellence. “This sceptical attitude is a contrast to our earlier findings, according to which the EU appeals to more than 70 per cent of the population on average in countries in Latin America, Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.”

According to the new study, one of the main reasons for the rejection of the EU in the Arab region is the fact that the majority of respondents refuses external interference. “The stronger the desire for national self-determination is among the population, not least after the Arab Spring, the more negative is the perception of the EU.” The acute desire for state sovereignty also has its roots in the colonial era, when Europeans exerted a great deal of influence on the region. “Religion, in contrast, plays a much lesser role for the scepticism towards the EU in countries influenced by Islam than has so far been assumed”, according to Prof. Schlipphak. “Our analyses indicate that the perception of the EU is not influenced by closeness to a religious leader.”

The Cluster of Excellence plans detailed studies about the influence of religion on the attitude towards the EU and other international organisations; for instance, about the communication of religious elites and about personal religiousness.

According to the new study, other reasons for a critical attitude towards the EU among the Arab population are a lack of trust in other political institutions such as one’s own government, a critical attitude towards the USA, a negative assessment of one’s own country’s economic situation, and the lack of a cosmopolitan attitude of an individual respondent. The research project headed by Bernd Schlipphak was the first to analyze the reasons for the negative attitude towards the EU in the entire population of twelve Arab countries; so far, research had only assessed the views of elites to that end. The countries analysed were Jordan, Palestine, Lebanon, Egypt, Sudan, Algeria, Morocco, Yemen, Kuwait, Libya, Tunisia and Iraq.

EU should “take the sensitivities within the population seriously”

In the light of the research results, the political scientist recommends the EU to “take the sensitivities within the population seriously when it comes to the EU’s foreign-policy objectives in Arab countries”.

Democratisation and liberalisation – which is also an important requirement for strong economic relations – can only “be achieved by supporting projects from the civil society, that is to say, bottom-up and not top-down”.

The findings from the first empirical analysis of the Arab reception of the EU, which Schlipphak conducted together with his co-author and project collaborator Mujtaba Isani, were recently published in the renowned “Journal of Common Market Studies”. The project team analyzed the results of the representative “Arab Barometer” (AB) of 2013 and 2014, by means of which Princeton University, the University of Michigan and the Arab Reform Initiative collect data on the political attitudes in the Arab world.

Negative feelings towards one’s own government are conferred to the EU

“In other regions of the world, economic expectations and trust in national political institutions influence the perception of international organisations. In Arab countries, it is also derived from the culturally rooted ideal of dignity”, explained Prof. Schlipphak. “In regard to international perceptions, the ideational desire for individual and domestic self-determination is highly important.” The majority of respondents indeed advocates international cooperation, but “they distinguish between self-determined intergovernmental cooperation and domestic lecturing by other countries and organisations.”

As in other parts of the world, citizens in Arab countries also “transfer their feelings about the national political institutions they know to unknown international players”.

However, they have less trust in the political players of their country than other people in the world, according to Isani.

“Thus, the EU is not considered a neutral alternative either.” Moreover, research literature about the attitude of elites outside Europe shows that the EU “as an institution has a credibility deficit”, said Schlipphak. This is caused by a contradiction: The EU perceives itself as a “good power” while it is seen from the outside as an actor in international negotiations who is solely guided by its own interests. “In light of this, it would be problematic if the EU acted patronisingly by trying to impose measures to these countries.”

The researchers attribute the strong desire for national sovereignty not only to colonial rule, but also to the support that authoritarian rulers received from Western states after World War II.

“Today, the desire for self-determination is an integral part of the Arab political discourse, which has probably become even more important after the Arab Spring of 2011.” At the same time, people feel united by a “pan-Arab identity”, explained Mujtaba Isani. Research has shown that interferences by external players are uniformly rejected across borders. “The potential breach of the sovereignty of one Arab state alone affects the perception of the external player in the entire region.”

Yet, the average assessment of the EU differs widely among the twelve different countries; the question as to how these differences may be explained remains open in the study.

For example, only 11 per cent of Algerians but almost 60 per cent of Moroccans have positive feelings toward the EU. According to Schlipphak and Isani, further studies should therefore include the influence of realpolitik events and the relations of the individual countries to the EU as possible parameters. The Cluster of Excellence’s study fills a research gap as the attitude of non-European communities towards the EU and other international organizations has so far barely been investigated.


Call For Philippines To Not Reinstate Death Penalty

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The Philippine House of Representatives should reject a proposal to reinstate the death penalty, Human Rights Watch said Friday.

On November 29, 2016, the Judicial Reforms Subcommittee approved Congress House Bill No. 1 (Death Penalty Law), which would reinstate capital punishment for “heinous crimes,” including murder, piracy, and the trafficking and possession of illegal drugs. A house vote on the bill is likely before the end of 2016.

“The Philippine government should acknowledge the death penalty’s barbarity and reject any moves to reinstate it,” said Phelim Kine, deputy Asia director. “The failure of the death penalty as a crime deterrent is globally recognized and the government should maintain the prohibition on its use.”

In a joint letter drafted by the International Drug Policy Consortium (IDPC), a network of nongovernmental organizations that focuses on issues related to drug production, trafficking, and use, the consortium urged all members of the Philippine House of Representatives and Senate to uphold the right to life enshrined in the 1987 Philippines Constitution. The Philippines is also party to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) and to the Second Optional Protocol of the ICCPR on the abolishment of the death penalty. The consortium also urged Philippine lawmakers to ensure proportionate sentencing of drug offenses to protect the vulnerable, and invest in harm reduction approaches to protect the health and wellbeing of Filipino people.

The Philippine government abolished the death penalty under article III, section 19 of the 1987 constitution. President Fidel Ramos reimposed the death penalty in 1993 as a “crime control” measure, but President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo reinstated abolition in 2006.

The alleged deterrent effect of the death penalty has been repeatedly debunked. Most recently, on March 4, 2015, the United Nations assistant secretary-general for human rights, Ivan Simonovic, stated that there was “no evidence that the death penalty deters any crime.” Even with respect to murder, an Oxford University analysis concluded that capital punishment does not deter “murder to a marginally greater extent than does the threat and application of the supposedly lesser punishment of life imprisonment.”

Human Rights Watch opposes the death penalty in all circumstances because of its inherent cruelty.

Reinstating the death penalty would violate the Philippines’ international legal obligations. The Second Optional Protocol to the ICCPR states that “no one within the jurisdiction of a State Party to the present Protocol shall be executed” and that “each State Party shall take all necessary measures to abolish the death penalty within its jurisdiction.”

Where the death penalty is permitted, human rights law limits the death penalty to “the most serious crimes,” typically crimes resulting in death or serious bodily harm. In a March 2010 report, the UN Office on Drugs and Crime called for an end to the death penalty and specifically urged member countries to prohibit use of the death penalty for drug-related offenses, while urging countries to take an overall “human rights-based approach to drug and crime control.” In its 2014 annual report, the International Narcotics Control Board, the agency charged with monitoring compliance with UN drug control conventions, encouraged countries to abolish the death penalty for drug offenses. The UN Human Rights Committee and the special rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions have concluded that the death penalty for drug offenses fails to meet the condition of “most serious crime.” In September 2015, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights reaffirmed that “persons convicted of drug-related offences … should not be subject to the death penalty.”

“Reinstatement of the death penalty won’t solve any drug-related societal problems that Congress House Bill No. 1 seeks to address,” Kine said. “It will only add to the already horrific death toll that President Rodrigo Duterte’s ‘war on drugs’ has inflicted on Filipinos since he took office on June 30.”

EU, Georgia Hold Third Association Council Meeting

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(Civil.Ge) — The European Union and Georgia held the third meeting of the Association Council in Brussels on December 2 to discuss “an enormous progress made in all fields,” EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said.

The meeting took place after the entry into force of the Association Agreement on 1 July 2016 that marked the start of its full-scale implementation. The Georgian governmental delegation was led by Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili.

”It is clear we share common values. It is also clear that we share a common agenda, a common interest and common commitments to making this partnership even stronger in the coming months and years and to continue Georgia’s political association and economic integration with the European Union,” Mogherini said at the press conference following the Association Council meeting.

“We agreed on the need to guarantee an inclusive political environment and promote a system based on freedom of media, pluralism, respect for the rule of law and judicial independence. And we will continue to support your political inclusive agenda and the impressive economic reform agenda you have started; and with the large majority in the Parliament this can be achieved,” she said.

She said that participants of the meeting discussed “impressive results” achieved since the provisional application of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas that is “a good success story for our people both in the Georgia and in European Union”.

Mogherini said that she is “positive” towards the issue of finalization of Georgia’s visa liberalisation process, adding that only procedural steps need to be taken internally within the European Union.

“Georgia has met all the benchmarks and we are – and I am personally – looking forward to the Council and the European Parliament to finalize this procedure, so that Georgian citizens can have visa liberalisation in place as soon as possible. This is now our responsibility and we are working hard on that,” she said in her opening remarks at the meeting.

When asked later whether something can have a negative influence on finalization process, Mogherini responded: “There is nothing that can influence this in a negative manner. I am convinced about that.”

“I cannot give you a date … but I am confident that this is coming soon,” she said.

A joint press release issued following the meeting reads that the Association Council welcomed the fact that the parliamentary elections in October were “competitive, well-administered and fundamental freedoms were generally respected.” It noted that “the strong parliamentary majority is a responsibility to strengthen democratic institutions, consolidate pluralistic democracy in Georgia and advance reforms.”

“Both sides acknowledged Georgia’s European aspiration, its European choice and the common objective to continue building a democratic, stable and prosperous country,” the joint press release reads.

The Association Council also welcomed “the progress made by Georgia in the implementation of comprehensive reforms in the justice sector” and noted that Georgia should “consolidate the progress achieved.”

“The Association Council underlined the importance of the promotion of EU investments in the Georgian economy and welcomed a proposal to focus future assistance for 2017-2020 on Economic Growth, Private Sector Support and developing efficient value chains and increased competitiveness in selected sectors with high export potential and/or import substitution,” the press release reads.

The European Union reiterated its “firm support” for the territorial integrity of Georgia within its internationally recognized borders and “stressed the crucial importance of the Geneva International Discussions for addressing and resolving the challenges stemming from the conflict in Georgia.”

The Association Council expressed its deep concern over “the recent ratification of the so-called agreement between the Russian Federation and the Georgian region of Abkhazia on the creation of a “joint group of military forces” and considered this step detrimental to security and stability in the region.”

The Association Council called on the Russian Federation to fulfill its obligations under the ceasefire agreement of 12 August 2008 and “to provide EUMM access to the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and Tskhinvali region/South Ossetia.”

“Both sides expressed concern over the human rights situation in these regions, including with regards to freedom of movement and access to education in native language in the Georgian region of Abkhazia,” the press release reads.

India-Israel Attuned Ambitions – Analysis

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By Usman Ali Khan*

Since coming to power on May 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has concerted efforts to infuse a new momentum in Indo-Israel relations.

India’s relation with Israel dates back to 1950’s, when India first recognized Israel. Since then Israel has laid down a red carpet to compartmentalize their relations. Fast forwarding to 1992, there has been a steady strengthening of bilateral ties between both states, adding that there exists a room for rapid growth and potential for their relation to bloom. Full diplomatic relations with Israel have reached to a newer height from economic to social and security level, making India one of the largest trading partner in defense as well.

Under Prime Minister Modi, Israel defense ties with India have been regarded as close and expected to get even closer. Their relation is based on intensifying contacts in the fields of not only agriculture, but also science and technology, cyber and defense.

What changed the dynamics of their relation was the Kargil crisis of 1999, where India received unprompted supplies of arms, ammunition and military support making Israel the biggest arms supplier to India, keeping their nuclear relationships under the conundrum.

Defense Procurement

Keeping in mind the unfolding developments in the region, unfortunately, the most domineering thing that is happening in the Asian region is instability. The strength of Indo-Israel growing defense partnership pertains importantly from a period of 2004 to 2014, where there has been a massive flow of military equipment from Israel to India, which is threatening peace and stability in the region.

Missile Development

India also opted to buy an estimated amount of 8,000 Israel’s Spike anti-guided missile with more than 300 launchers, denying U.S. offer of Javelin missiles that Washington had lobbied hard to win. These perks are significant in escalating the arms procurement in the subcontinent. In 2006, a five-year contract, amounting to $480 million was concluded between Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and Indian Defense Research Development Organization (DRDO).

Following the delayed deal of Barak missile which was developed jointly was a boost to India’s maritime anti-air warfare capabilities. Not only both states have maintained, but also enhanced cooperation while encompassing production of small arms. Nonetheless, if one looks closely, other technologies including surface-to-air missile, Delilah II, Popeye beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile, Pechora III, and crystal maze bond are also on the export list of Israel to India.

More interestingly, military relations between the two are fervently speculated as an unfinished agenda. For example, Israeli defense minister visited India back in 2015, boosting their arms venture which was between Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and India’s Kalyani Group. Where, India already has invested $143 million to purchase Barak 1.

Sale of Falcon AWACS

India is also said to be considering to purchase Israel-made Airborne Early Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) surveillance aircraft. AWACS surveillance aircraft can simultaneously track flying objects within a radius of 800km and has a look down capacity to monitor movements on the ground and/or sea.

Given the huge and developing level of cooperation between the two nations, Indian Special Forces (ISF) are also getting training from Israel, which are then deployed in the troubled region of Kashmir.

In fact, the transformational shift in Indian policy for developing more cordial relations with Israel is to endeavor its military modernization and replacing aged Russian hardware. But the likely prognosis that will arise is the effect of aforesaid new trends in the region for acquiring more arms and lesser peace initiatives.

This monumental regional realignment necessitates that India needs to understand the correct definition of business target rather than an arms procurement target. The emerging nexus call for the seriousness of Pakistan as to understand the gravity of the situation and emerging security constraints to their sovereignty and survival. India had always been taking cover of the anti-Pakistan power blocks and stockpiling its already un-proportionate armada to sky limits so as to maintain a credible threat constantly looming over the security of Pakistan.

Indeed, this upswing in relation envisioned towards regional security which obligates important questions like: Where is this bilateral bonhomie heading? What will be the implications of their immense defense and arms procurement? This will alter the more promising situation of balance of power in South Asia and in larger Asian region which already is in a state of flux. Keeping in mind the undergoing changes, this bilateral relationship needs to be watched carefully as it is hosting threats and challenges like fueling arms race in the region.

*Usman Ali Khan, Graduated in Defence and Strategic Studies. Freelance writer and blogger

This article was published at Modern Diplomacy

Is Mr. Modi Riding A Tiger? – OpEd

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Ever since the government of India announced demonetization of high value currency notes on November 8, there have been noisy protests from a section of politicians, economists and so-called free thinkers.

However, the common man in India seem to be showing enormous understanding of the strategy of the Modi government to eradicate corruption, for which demonetization is seen as one of the many steps needed.

The critics have deplored the demonetization exercise as wasteful and counter productive and vouch that the objectives of demonetization to remove black money and corruption in the country would not be realized.

Further, they have repeatedly highlighted the pain and hardships that have happened to cross section of country men due to cash crunch and have accused Modi government of carrying out hasty exercise without forward planning.

While none of the critics have openly spoken against the objective of curbing corruption, black money and fake currency, they have questioned the demonetization measure taken by Modi government. However, none have suggested any appropriate alternate strategy to achieve the objectives or given any useful advice to the government as to how it could have gone through the demonetization exercise without causing hardships to the people.
While Prime Minister Modi has said that it would take around fifty days to restore full level of normalcy after announcing demonetization and people have been requested to put up with the problems with understanding of the objectives, the critics are not buying such appeal and are becoming more critical day by day.

While during the last three weeks after demonetization, there have been considerable cash crunch in the country, print and television media have been prominently discussing about the hardships to the people instead of highlighting adequately the positive reaction to the government’s demonetization decision.

Understanding shown by the common man

Of course, the government of India has been explaining the objectives of the demonetization exercise in various forums, repeatedly modified the announcements in response to the ground scenario and have clearly declared that this would be the first step in rooting out black money and corruption and further stringent measures would follow. The government has also explained the need to keep secrecy before making announcement about demonetization, explained the reason for the time taken for recalibrating the 0.23 million ATMs and the fact that the new high value currency notes cannot be printed in advance by several weeks to maintain the required secrecy.

The doomsayers and section of politicians have predicted that there would be huge public unrest and violence on December 1, which is the pay day, for the salaried class due to the continuing crash crunch and the restrictions imposed on cash withdrawal amount from the banks.

However, nothing of this sort has happened. What is particularly noteworthy is the fact that, by and large ,people who are not involved in corrupt dealings or hold black money or belong to any political class have put up with the problems patiently and with understanding.

Common man want demonetization to succeed

Ever since India attained independence from British rule, for seventy years now, the level of corruption among government machinery, business houses and even in other sector such as hospitals and educational institutions have been climbing steadily. Common man have been forced to pay bribe and become part of corrupt society helplessly, as nothing could be got done without greasing the palm.

Millions of Indians belonging to middle and lower income group have been longing for several years that government would take the most stringent steps to eradicate corruption in the country and stop the generation of black money.

When Mr. Narendra Modi declared that he would fight corruption at any cost and followed it by demonetization measures and further assured that he would take further stringent measures, he has really caught the imagination of the people and raised their expectations and hope.

Is Mr Modi now riding a tiger?

Some Chief Ministers like Mr. Nitish Kumar of Bihar belonging to the opposition parties have appreciated Modi government’s decision to demonetize the high value currency as a strategy to root out black money, fake currency and corruption. This indicates that support for Mr. Modi’s efforts have even come from section of opposition parties, apart from most of the country men.

Now, there is huge expectations that Mr. Modi would take the fight against corruption to the logical end. However, with a government machinery that is not very efficient and part of which is corrupt itself and with section of media highlighting the negatives more than the positives and section of politicians determined to paint Mr. Modi as hasty and arrogant, Mr. Modi certainly has a very hard task ahead.

Mr. Modi is now riding a tiger. He can’t get down without taming it, as otherwise, the tiger would maul him. Obviously, Mr. Modi knows this and has shown extraordinary courage of conviction.

The nation is watching anxiously.

The Arabs Did It – OpEd

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When my parents married in Germany, just before World War I, among the gifts was a document attesting that a tree had been planted in their name in Palestine.

My father was an early Zionist. Popular Jewish humor in Germany at that time had it that “a Zionist is a Jew who wants to take money from another Jew in order to settle a third Jew in Palestine.” My father certainly was not planning to go to Palestine himself.

Palestine was then a country bereft of ornamental trees. The Arab inhabitants cultivated olive trees, from which they made their scant living, and at that time the citrus trees were introduced. The olive tree is native – already in the Biblical story of Noah’s ark, the dove fetches an olive leaf as a sign of life.

According to popular legend, during that war the Turkish administration cut down the trees in order to build a railway across the Sinai peninsula and dislodge the British from the Suez Canal. However, the British crossed the Sinai in the other direction and conquered Palestine.

AFTER THAT war the Zionists started to come to the country en masse. Among many other things, they started to plant trees in large quantities. Real forests sprang up, though compared with Russian or European forests they were pitiful.

The Zionists did not ask themselves why the country was bereft of so many kinds of trees. The obvious answer was that the Arabs didn’t care, that’s just the kind of people they are. No love for the country. No love for trees.

The Zionist movement was full of self-confidence. They could do anything they set their mind to. They hated the Palestinian landscape as it was. They were going to create a different country. When David Ben-Gurion, a 20-year old youngster, landed at Jaffa in 1906, he was utterly disgusted. “Is this the land of our fathers?” he cried out.

So the Zionists set out to change the landscape. They imported beautiful trees from all over the world and planted forests wherever they could: along the road from Tel-Aviv to Jerusalem, on Mount Carmel and many other places. They were beautiful.

The new immigrants did not ask themselves why the country, which had been populated since the beginning of time and remained so continuously to this day, had been so empty of these kinds of trees. Obviously, it was the fault of the Arabs.

Actually, the reason was quite different. Palestine suffers from an extreme shortage of rainfall. Every few years or so there is a drought, the country dries up, and fires break out all over the place. The trees which are not suited to this country just burn up.

Six years ago there was a warning. A large fire broke out on Mount Carmel. It consumed large portions of the forest and killed 47 policemen, who were caught by the fire while on their way to evacuate a prison.

Two weeks ago it happened in earnest. For eight months there was hardly a drop of rain. A strong, hot, east wind blew in from the desert. The land dried up. Any little spark could have started a major fire.

SUDDENLY THE LAND WAS on fire. About 150 separate fires broke out, many of them near Haifa, Israel’s third largest town. Haifa is beautiful, rather like Naples, and several of its suburbs are surrounded by trees. No one had thought about safe distances or such.

Several neighborhoods caught fire. Almost eighty thousand inhabitants had to be evacuated, leaving their life-long belongings behind. Many apartments were destroyed by fire. It was heart-breaking.

The fire-fighters did their best. They worked around the clock. No lives were lost. With hoses on the ground and light fire-fighting airplanes in the air, they gradually brought the calamity under control.

How did the fires break out? Under the prevailing climatic conditions, any little spark could have caused a major disaster. A campfire not properly extinguished, a burning cigarette thrown from a passing car, an overturned hookah.

But that is not dramatic enough for news media, and even less for politicians. Soon enough the country was full of accusations: The Arabs Did It. Of course. Who else? TV was full of people who had actually seen Arabs setting forests alight.

Then Binyamin Netanyahu appeared on screen. Clad in a fashionable battle-dress, surrounded by his minions, he declared that it was all the work of Arab terrorists. It was an “Intifada of Fire”. Fortunately, Israel has a savior: he himself. He had taken control, summoned an American supertanker and several other foreign fire-fighting planes. Israelis could go back to sleep.

In reality, all this was nonsense. The brave fire-fighters and policemen had already done their job. Netanyahu’s intervention was superfluous, indeed harmful.

DURING THE last great fire, six years ago, on the Carmel, Netanyahu had played the same role and summoned a giant American fire-fighting plane. It had done a good job over the forest. This time, near human neighborhoods, it could do nothing. In settled neighborhoods, the super-tanker was useless. Netanyahu summoned it, had himself photographed with it, and that was that.

The accusation of the Arab citizens as responsible for the catastrophe was much more serious. When Netanyahu raised it, he was widely believed.

The semi-fascist minister of education, Naftali Bennett, argued that the fire proved that the country belongs to the Jews, since the Arabs had set it on fire.

Many Arab citizens were rounded up and interrogated. Most were released. In the end it appeared that perhaps about 2 (two) percent of the fires were started by Arab youngsters as acts of revenge.

Haifa is a mixed city, with a large Arab population. Generally, relations between Arabs and Jews there are good, sometimes even cordial. The two communities faced the new danger together, Arab villages opened their homes to Jewish refugees from the fire. Mahmoud Abbas, the chief of the Palestinian Authority in the occupied territories, also sent his firefighters into Israel to help out.

Netanyahu’s incendiary speeches, making wild (and quite unproven) accusations against the Arab citizens and against Arab workers from the occupied territories, did not catch on.

So this political fire, too, was suppressed before it could do too much damage. As the days pass, the accusations recede, but the damage they caused remains.

(When I served in the army, long ago, my company was awarded the honorary title “Samson’s Foxes”. Samson, the biblical hero, attached firebrands to the tails of foxes and sent them into the fields of the Philistines.)

THE FIRE should provide food for thought.

If Netanyahu and his minions are right and “the Arabs” are intent on throwing us out of the country by any means, including fire, what is the answer?

The easy answer is: Throw them out, instead.

Logical, but impracticable. There are now more than six and a half million Arab Palestinians in Greater Israel – Israel proper, the West Bank (including East Jerusalem), and the Gaza Strip. The number of Jews is about the same. In today’s world, you just cannot expel such numbers.

So we are condemned to live close together – either in two states, a proposal rejected by Netanyahu, or in one state, which would be either an apartheid state or a bi-national state.

If one believes, as Netanyahu and his followers do, that every Arab is a potential “fire terrorist” – how will anyone in the joint state be able to sleep at night?

Only some Arabs have guns. Only some have cars, with which to run over Jews. Only some can make explosives. But everyone has matches. Given a dry season, the sky is the limit.

By the way, just by chance, this week I saw a German TV program about a Swiss village, high up in the Alps. From time to time, a very dry hot wind, called Foehn, blows over it from the south. Twice in living memory the village has burnt down. All without an Arab in sight.

IN ISRAEL, the fire brigades belong to the local authorities, providing patronage and salaries to local party hacks.

In June 1968, as a young member of the Knesset, I came up with a revolutionary proposal: to abolish all the local fire-fighting departments and set up a united, national fire-fighting service, like the police. Such a force, I argued, could plan for all eventualities, prepare adequate equipment and allocate the necessary resources.

Contrary to their habit of heaping abuse on my proposals, my adversaries took this one seriously. The minister in charge acknowledged that it was a good idea, but added that “its time has not yet come”.

Now, 48 years later, the time has evidently still not arrived.

Instead, the Great Fire has.

Power Determines Every Relationship In Geopolitics – Analysis

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“Political realism is aware of the moral significance of political action. It is also aware of the ineluctable tension between the moral command and the requirements of successful political action. And it is unwilling to gloss over and obliterate that tension and thus to obfuscate both the moral and the political issue by making it appear as though the stark facts of politics were morally more satisfying than they actually are, and the moral law less exacting than it actually is.” — Hans Morgenthau, Classical Realist (1904-1980)

The realignment of ‘Balance of Power’, in contemporary International Politics has resulted in a paradigmatic move in the Classical Realist teachings of Thucydides, Machiavelli, Hans Morgenthau, Reinhold Niebuhr and Nicholas Spykman, wherein the fulcrum of politics and political action has shifted inexorably towards Structural Realism and Security Dilemma. India’s adversarial relations with Pakistan, rising Chinese interference in South Asia, United States of America intervening in all matters of Realpolitik are all crucial components of new Security Studies and Neo Realism or Structural Realism as propounded by Kenneth Waltz and Joseph Grieco.

Classical Realists like Morgenthau held a pessimistic view of human nature. The ‘ism’ was primarily based on the realities of human nature, hunger for power, survival and how conflict was an intrinsic part of insane human nature. Hence Conflict or War was a natural phenomenon. Classical Realists dissected political action during the inter war years mostly after the second world war hence conflict became an act of individual achievements and since the state comprised of individuals, the power of the state was unchallenged or sovereign. Justice, law and society were circumscribed.

Morgenthau opined that when we speak of power, we mean man’s control over the minds and actions of other men. By political power we refer to the mutual relations of control among the holders of public authority and between the latter and the people at large. The shift in classical realism was witnessed in the 1980’s when Kenneth Waltz opined that it is the anarchy in International political structure that determines political action or international power structure. How power was distributed in the international political order was the crucial cog of political studies.

With the killing of Burhan Wani, a young Hizb-ul-Mujahidden operative in Kashmir, attacks in Uri, surgical strikes carried out by India to wipe out terror camps across the Line of Control (LoC) in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) and China technically putting on hold the listing of Masood Azhar, the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) chief as an international terrorist, the security dilemma has become an inevitable and an unavoidable reality. In Syria, Bashar al Assad is receiving staunch support from Putin’s Russia in the fight against ISIS, What Putin is also trying to ensure is a permanent support base in Syria as a hedge against the power of the US in the middle east. In the new Cold War between Russia and the US, the nuclear dimension is again gaining centre stage, as it is in the stand off between India and Pakistan in the subcontinent. Propaganda has indeed replaced moral philosophy.

Offensive and Defensive realism has replaced classical realism. The current international political order is as anarchic as it can be with nations hedging their conventional war waging capabilities with nuclear options.

Security Dilemma, the third dimension of Realism essentially focuses on the rising insecurities among states when one state expands its nuclear and defensive power capabilities in the name of self help or self defence. All this is based on intuition. There isn’t an actual war going on but threat perceptions are such that are used to justify defence preparedness in an era of globalisation, asymmetric threats, changing and increasingly digitized battlefields and strides in weapon technologies.

The structure of international political order is a powerful determinant of state behaviour today. Conflict studies dissect the role of this structure in carrying out research on conflict transformation and peace building. In 1979 Kenneth Waltz in his “Theory of International Politics” stated that anarchy prevents the states from entering into cooperative agreements to end the state of war. Critiquing the Idealistic theory of conflict Neo-Realists argue that structural dimensions of political order determine the trajectory of existing conflicts today. Wheeler and Booth argued that Security Dilemma exists when military preparations of one state determine the policies of another.

The recent cancellation of the annual summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC) in Pakistan was primarily due to members refusing to attend in view of Pakistan’s state sponsored terrorism. There are more and increasing demands for declaring Pakistan as a terrorist state; its isolation eminently gave rise to a new dilemma whether the political order that exists today is capable of doing so.

The idea of balance of power as propounded by the realists essentially means an arrangement to control aggression but with Pakistan continuously provoking India through terrorist attacks and proxy war the entire fabric of balance of power has been distorted. The conventional superiority of India has been largely nixed by this proxy war. To add to the dilemma, Pakistan is a nuclear state with a professed ‘first use’ doctrine, and gets support from China, the other power aspiring to hegemon status.

In response to the terrorist attack in Uri in which 18 Indian soldiers were martyred, India conducted surgical strikes across the LoC in PoK. Pakistan conducted journalists on their side of the LoC to justify its stance that no strikes actually took place. This was followed by (according to reports in the media) the Indian Army taking a team of journalists along the Line of Control to brief them on the situation post the heavy firing across the LoC by Pakistani troops. If reports are to be believed, both countries are claiming their readiness for any eventuality post the strikes. In the narrative as it has unfolded, the role of the fourth estate in conflict scenarios can no longer be undermined. This is equally applicable in the new world order across the globe.

The history of the formation of nation states is intertwined with armed conflicts and bloodshed. War in its protieform manifestation is central to the understanding of International Relations and several other cognate disciplines. When India for example was partitioned in 1947 there were riots and an immense refugee crisis. Similar examples can be seen in the case of Israel, Palestine and all other nations grappling with ethno-national violence and the resultant bellicose tactics used by the governments to suppress such violence.

According to Clausewitz war is an extension of politics by other means. Headly Bull defined war as organized violence carried on by political units against each other. Nations today are accelerating their defence modernisation process and conducting nuclear tests to augment their conventional capabilities for waging war. The psychological pressures by the international community including the United Nations have fairly managed to control nuclear proliferation across the globe, but this influence seems to be waning now. Both India and Pakistan are traditional adversaries and nuclear states. It is best to avoid full blown war.

What is war? E H Carr and Hans Morgenthau had opined that nation states will go to any length to gain power. Geopolitical wars have changed the geography of the world map. Conflicts or wars have existed since time immemorial. Gray, Kaldor, Thornton , Hoffman, Bousquet and Creveld have explored the many dimensions of war, be they hybrid, postmodern or asymmetric. War is essentially rooted in socio-political, psychological, cultural or economic inequalities. Internal conflicts such as the Naxalite movement in India are quintessential cases of resource inequality. War or conflict is more than just an act of violence. It is an action-reaction mechanism based on historical transformations of human societies.

Institutionalization of war is yet another dimension that has been a central theme of political studies and International Relations. In common parlance, Institutionalization refers to the process of embedding some conception (for example a belief, norm, social role, particular value or mode of behaviour) within an organization, social system, or society as a whole. The defence forces in India follow a structural pattern of hierarchy and the institution of the defence mechanism is guided by policy makers from the Ministry of Defence, India. The discipline of International relations was moulded to suit the objectives of the United Nations created in 1945 to save the succeeding generations from the scourge of war. But some wars are never ending. They may not be a full fledged armed violence; proxy wars can disrupt the social fabric of political societies as well.

There are several dynamics of war that need to be understood to tackle internal and external disturbances. The first is to deal with economic inequality. Redistribution of wealth or dictatorship of the proletariat as crafted by Karl Marx is an important study in itself. Other factors include religious differences, territorial disputes, violence against women, gender inequality, political non representation etc. The mechanism of war is like a manipulative tool in the hands of the political establishments to suit specific interests. Analogy can be drawn in the case of the fourth estate which focuses on dramatic stories, sensationalism to increase their TRP’s. This is also a war, a war to win the first slot during primetime telecast of debates.

It is very difficult to understand the logic behind conflicts and wars; as Clausewitz opined there is a marked difference between absolute and real wars. Wars are politically motivated. Unless a just social order is put in place inter and intra state conflict will continue to plague human societies. With the disintegration of the Soviet Block in 1991, the world witnessed the rise of United States of America as the new hegemon controlling international politics. In recent years economic development and globalisation has led to many nations competing with the hegemon for their space in the international arena. India is seen as a dominant state in South Asia; the rise of the Dragon is a direct attack on America’s hegemonic superpower status and equally on India’s aspirations.

New balance of power always replaces the old one. This is an important tenet of Realism. Realism therefore has not lost its relevance today. World wars may be over, but the new wave of cold war between India and its traditional adversary Pakistan has changed the dynamics of International political order.

Reference Reading:
Clausewitz von Carl “On War” 1832
Aday S , The Real War Will Never Get on Television: Casualty Imagery in American Television Coverage of the Iraq War. In: Seib, P. ed. Media and Conflict in the Twenty-First Century. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. 2015,Print
Alexander, Yonah. Terrorism and the Media. Brasseys (US): Richard Lalter Inc, 1999.Print.
Allan Stuart and Zelizer Barbie, Reporting War-Journalism in Wartime, Taylor & Francis Ltd,United Kingdom.2004.Print
Hampson Osler Fen, Crocker A Chester and Aall R Pamela, Negotiation and International Conflict, (Ed) Weber Charles, Galtung Johan, Handbook of Peace and Conflict Studies, Routeledge, 2007,Print.
Forging Peace :Intervention, Human Rights and the Management of media ,Indiana University Press 2007 primarily focusses on role of media in conflict situations and impact of information intervention in escalation, de escalation of conflicts.
Media and Political Conflict, Cambridge University Press, 1997. This book gives an insight on the role of news media as participants in conflict. The author has analysed the role of media in the Gulf War, the Palestinian Intifada, and the attempt by the Israeli right wing to derail the Israel- Palestine Peace Accord.3
Constructive Conflicts-From Escalation to Resolution Louis Kriesberg and Bruce W Dayton Rowman &Little field 2011
Cottle,Simon, Mediatised Recognition and “The Other”, 2007,MIACP
Giddens, Anthony, Sociology-6th edition, “The Media”, 2009 Cambridge
Morgenthau Hans and Thompson W Kenneth, “Politics Among Nations” 1948

Spectrum Allocation At Federal Communications Commission: Time For A Reset – Analysis

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By Harold Furchtgott-Roth*

After years of deliberation, the Federal Communications Commission on July 14, 2016 adopted the “Spectrum Frontiers” Order and Further Notice of Proposed Rulemaking providing new federal rules for the allocation and use of spectrum above 24 GHz, often considered the “frontier” of spectrum.2 In late June 2016, however, just a few weeks before the Spectrum Frontiers final order was adopted, the Boeing Company filed a new petition for rulemaking with the FCC in which the company asked the agency to effectively alter the allocations and power limits the FCC was about to finalize for high band spectrum.3

While no one can fault The Boeing Company for pursuing all avenues to its advantage, this development highlights several flaws in the FCC’s administrative review process for spectrum allocations. The FCC’s current process imperfectly tries to mimic market mechanisms and in so doing, needlessly extends the time it takes to move spectrum to its best and most efficient use.

High-frequency spectrum is indeed one of the last frontiers in which to find useable spectrum to support mobile broadband. Unlike the space frontiers of the fictional Star Trek, however, the frontiers of high-frequency spectrum are here and now.

We can continue to allocate high-frequency spectrum on a piece-meal basis as we have in the past. Or we can learn from past mistakes and rely on better, more market-oriented mechanisms that accelerate the process of allocating new spectrum. The economic consequences of getting more efficient use of spectrum from market mechanisms are enormous. The consequences of not getting more efficient use of spectrum are both tragic and economically irrational.

II. HIGHFREQUENCY SPECTRUM IS THE FRONTIER

The frontier: the very word evokes images of explorers, from geographic explorers of centuries past, to Star Trek explorers of future centuries. An important frontier today has no specific geographic boundary. It is not light years away on an intergalactic mission. It is part of the here and now, the very air we breathe and yet also what we cannot breathe; it is part of the light we see and yet also the light we cannot see; it is the sound we hear as well as the sounds we cannot hear. It is spectrum.

Since the beginning of the 20th century, scientists and engineers have expanded knowledge of the boundaries and applications of spectrum. The spectrum regulations from the Berlin Conference of 1906 pertained to 500 KHz to 1 MHz.4 By 1922, the federal government regulated spectrum between 50kHz and 3MHz. Today, the federal Communications Act has expanded to regulate spectrum between 9 kHz and 275 GHz.5

Commercially valuable applications of spectrum move more slowly than the scientific frontiers of spectrum. Before 1914, commercially interesting applications were few. By 1934, spectrum below 2 MHz had some commercial value. By 1950, spectrum below 1 GHz may have had commercial value. By 1996, most observers viewed spectrum below 3GHz and a few higher bands as having particular economic value.

Today, new technologies hold extraordinary promise for the development of spectrum applications in many bands with high frequencies. The FCC consolidated several ongoing dockets with a new proceeding with a Notice of Inquiry (NOI) to look at a variety of issues about how to regulate this higher frequency spectrum above 24 GHz, particularly in six bands.6 The FCC inquiry focuses on terrestrial mobile applications, particularly for new 5G wireless technologies. As the Commission stated:

In particular, industry and technical groups are beginning to examine the use of higher frequencies sometimes known as millimeter wave (mmW) bands for mobile use. This examination of the possible uses of the mmW bands for mobile use takes place within the context of broader efforts to develop technical standards for so-called Fifth Generation (5G) mobile services. In view of the technological and marketplace developments outlined in this item, we seek to discern what frequency bands above 24 GHz would be most suitable for mobile services, and to begin developing a record on mobile service rules and a licensing framework for mobile services in those bands.7

The FCC subsequently launched a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking.8 The NPRM included discussion of new terrestrial wireless services. Among others, mobile services were proposed in the 37-40 GHz band.9 In July 2016, the FCC adopted rules for mobile applications, for among other bands the 37 GHz band and the 39 GHz band, spanning from 37-40 GHz.10 The Commission also adopted a further notice of proposed rulemaking for the 50 GHz band, from 50.4 to 52.6 GHz.11 The FNPRM proposed to authorize terrestrial fixed and mobile operations in the 50 GHz band under the Part 30 Upper Microwave Flexible Use Service rules.

The spectrum above 24 GHz is underutilized, but it is not entirely undeveloped or without technological applications. More than 20 years ago, the FCC even auctioned licenses in several of these bands;12 however, the applications for higher-band frequencies have not, to date, been as commercially successful as applications deployed on lower frequencies.

III. PROPERTY RIGHTS CONCEPTS ARE IMPORTANT FOR THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF SPECTRUM, INCLUDING HIGHFREQUENCY SPECTRUM

It is perhaps all too human nature to stake a claim to that which is new and which appears to be in one’s grasp. A child seeing a toy enter her home might assume the toy is hers to decide how to use it, to enjoy, and to discard when no longer wanted. Never mind that the toy may be designated for another child. Kings in a bygone era may have viewed territorial conquests much the same way as a child viewing a new toy. Never mind that the territory may have individuals with other loyalties and other claims and an entire set of property rights in place. And so it is with spectrum.

There is a vast literature about the importance of property rights to ensure the efficient use of spectrum and the efficient transfer of interests in spectrum.13 While spectrum in the United States is not an unalloyed form of property,14 many property rights concepts have evolved around it.15 Over the past 30 years, property right concepts in spectrum, both licensed and unlicensed, have been at least partially clarified at the FCC. In large part as a consequence, the economic value of spectrum and spectrum-based services has exploded globally and in the United States.

Many economic studies have shown the value of spectrum and spectrum-based services are growing rapidly, more rapidly than the remainder of the economy.16 These studies reveal hundreds of billions of annual economic value of spectrum to the American and to the global economy. Although there are major economic contributions from broadcast and satellite services, the vast majority of value in spectrum-based services is from terrestrial services, both licensed and unlicensed. Increasingly, the distinction between spectrum-based services and the remainder of the economy is blurred as practically all of the economy has become at least in part dependent on spectrum-based services.

Spectrum and spectrum-based services have extraordinary economic value today. They have contributed substantially to the economic growth of America in the past few decades. Indeed, there would have been arguably little if any economic growth in the United States over the past few decades without new wireless and Internet developments.17 And yet, as explained here and elsewhere, spectrum in the United States is not efficiently allocated with market mechanisms. The potential economic benefits to the United States and the global economy from more market-based spectrum allocations are substantial.

While property right concepts in spectrum at the FCC and elsewhere have increased over the past 30 years, they remain weak and imperfect. Various studies recommend strengthening those property rights concepts.18 There is no doubt that clearer property right concepts in spectrum would increase economic value further for all bands of spectrum, including those above 24 GHz. The commission has collected a large record in the 14-177 docket, but there is no focus on fundamental property right concepts in spectrum itself.19 Indeed, the word “property,” much less “property right,” does not appear in the NOI. “Property” appears in the context of location of use of the 37 GHz band and indoor use of Part 15 devices in the NPRM. Property appears only once in the Order in the context again of the 37 GHz band, but not in the rules themselves. Unsurprisingly, most comments ignore property rights altogether.

IV. LESSONS LEARNED FROM ILLCONSIDERED ALLOCATIONS IN LOWERFREQUENCY SPECTRUM

NTIA maintains a spectrum allocation chart using a color code to show the allocation in each band of spectrum for both federal and non-federal users.20

The chart is a beautiful rainbow of colors, but it hardly reflects a unique or efficient allocation. It incorporates, for example, narrow channels in the 800 and 900 MHz bands, vestiges of a time when narrow channels had substantial value given the contemporaneous technology. The NTIA spectrum allocation chart represents allocations that may have once made sense, but which, just a few years later, no longer did. It is impossible to believe that a rational system starting from scratch would look the same. Nor is it possible to believe that the chart would look the same in a market-based system where spectrum rights owners could aggregate spectrum and could choose the most beneficial spectrum uses consistent with the Coase Theorem.

Parties frequently petition the FCC to change spectrum allocations. What follows is often years of delay, if a reallocation is made. The ultimate reallocation, if made by an administrative agency considering a wide range of non-economic factors, may not make economic sense, either at the time of the reallocation, or years in the future.

The challenge for the FCC is not to be omniscient of future technologies. That is impossible. Nor is the challenge for the FCC to discern which among competing interested parties has a better and more accurate story to tell about the future. That too is impossible. And yet, the Commission unwittingly and unnecessarily puts itself in this position in allocation proceeding. The Commission makes decisions about the use and allocation of an extraordinarily valuable asset, spectrum, based upon its judgment about future technology and the representations of interested parties.

The better solution is to devise spectrum allocations with clearer property rights principles to allow interested parties with an economic interest in spectrum to be able to shift and to change in accordance with changing market conditions without reverting to the FCC for years of reallocation proceedings. This would include more flexible-use allocations that reduce the necessity of formal reallocations. Indeed, the Spectrum Frontiers Order has some limited elements of spectrum flexibility, such as allowing mobility in some bands.21

V. COMPETING PROPOSALS FOR THE USE OF THE 40 GHZ AND 50 GHZ BANDS

The inefficiency of the FCC spectrum allocation process can be seen in the Spectrum Frontiers proceeding as well as in the Boeing Petition. The Spectrum Frontiers order adopted in July 2016 is the culmination of various proceedings that have churned for more than a decade. Yet, a week before the proceeding was about to draw to a close, a party filed a new Petition for Rulemaking that impacts the very spectrum allocations the FCC addressed in its decades long proceeding. In June 2016, the Boeing Company filed its petition asking the FCC to enable “the allocation and authorization of additional uplink (Earth-to-space) spectrum for the Fixed-Satellite Service (“FSS”) in the bands 50.4-51.4 GHz and 51.4-52.4 GHz.”22 The additional uplink band would then be paired with the 5 GHz FSS downlink band at 37.5 – 42.5 GHz to provide the spectrum foundation for a new NGSO fixed broadband service.23 These modifications are not in the Spectrum Frontiers Order.

CTIA,24 Straight Path Communications,25 and others filed various documents in Docket GN 14-177 noting the conflict between Boeing’s proposed use of the 40 GHz band and the 50 GHz band for a satellite-based service with terrestrial wireless services proposed in the Spectrum Frontiers NPRM and Order. Boeing asserts that the satellite and terrestrial services are incompatible.26

There is little in the record thus far to determine unambiguously the technical issues about the compatibility of these different uses of high band spectrum. The FCC will be left to conduct its own tests or rely on the tests of other parties, many with vested interests in the outcome. There is even less, practically nothing, in the record about the economics of the proposed reallocation. The costs and benefits of the proposed reallocation, aside from qualitative cheers, are not in the record. The costs and benefits of Boeing or others using alternate bands of spectrum for specific services are not in the record either.

Thus, absent another multi-year effort to gather information that may or may not prove accurate, the Commission has no basis on which to make an informed decision about the questions posed by Boeing. This is the crux of the Commission’s problem with regard to its current process for making spectrum allocation decisions.

VI. VARIOUS MEANS OF RESOLVING DISPUTES FOR THE USAGE OF SPECTRUM

I have no view about whether Boeing or CTIA or Straight Path has the better technical arguments about the compatibility or incompatibility of various services proposed for high-frequency spectrum. Rather, the dispute between the parties, as publicly recorded in a series of documents at the FCC, represents an economically inefficient, even irrational, means of resolving commercial disputes between parties. As noted above, more efficient spectrum allocation could and likely would have substantial benefits to the American economy.

Below, I describe four methods of resolving conflicting proposals for the allocation and use of high band spectrum, from the most efficient to the least efficient. More than 30 years ago, the FCC was primarily using the least efficient means of allocating spectrum. Since then, the FCC has improved spectrum allocation substantially, but still is far from using the most efficient approach it could use.

A. A pure property rights concept approach
A pure property rights concept approach to resolving disputes over the usage of spectrum would assign spectrum rights of an entire band to a party much as a plot of land is assigned by a deed to a party. The FCC would reasonably regulate emissions and interference coming into the band or exiting the band, but the Commission would not regulate these emissions or interference within the band, such as between satellite and terrestrial applications. The party with the assigned rights could sell or lease those rights to others for various purposes, and that party would be able to determine the interference conditions between the terrestrial and satellite users, high-power and low-power users, etc. The result would be what economists refer to as the Coase Theorem, whereby, in the absence of transactions costs, assets will gravitate towards their highest-valued use.27 Of course, initial allocations affect the payments between and among parties, but assets should end up with their highest valued use. If any entity, including the Boeing Company or Straight Path, believes it has a higher valued use for spectrum in the 40 GHz and 50 GHz bands, it can and would approach the entity that has the rights to those bands and seek to acquire certain rights to use those bands. That controlling party might decide that only one of competing applications would be allowed, or that both would be allowed under conditions that it would determine by contract. The primary role of the FCC would be limited to ensuring that parties with interests in adjacent spectrum bands are not affected by harmful interference. Another role of the FCC would be as the recorder of deeds for spectrum.28 I have seen nothing to suggest that the FCC envisions this approach to resolving the dispute over the usage of various spectrum bands.

B. The auction approach
The second approach to resolving a spectrum dispute in a band would have two steps: (1) first, ascertain that the federal government retains primary rights in the band and those rights have not been allocated for a specific purpose; and (2) second, auction off spectrum rights, consistent with 47 U.S.C. 309(j), even for competing allocations. The advantage of the auction approach is that it would reveal which party values the spectrum the most, independent of the application or allocation. In practice, every band of spectrum is already allocated, usually for multiple purposes, and usually with different allocations for both federal and non-federal users. In theory, the federal government could reclaim lightly used high-frequency spectrum bands for this auction purpose, but few if any bands of spectrum have no incumbent use. I have seen nothing in the record to suggest that the Commission is considering this approach to resolve the disputes at 40 GHz or 50 GHz.

C. The quantitative administrative state
The third approach to resolving disputes over the usage of spectrum is what I would characterize as a quantitative administrative state. Here the FCC would do the implicit calculations that should mimic the property-rights approach above.

  1. Value of spectrum to each party and to the public The FCC would use quantitative information to assess the economic and financial merits of each party to the dispute. The FCC would assess the net economic value of spectrum assignments to various parties as well a net consumer value of various spectrum assignments. As part of this economic calculation, the FCC would consider potential uses of alternative spectrum bands. Although Boeing has presented descriptive information of the business plan of FSS broadband service, I have seen no cost-benefit analysis of the proposed service, either to Boeing or the public. It is unclear why this FSS service would succeed where others have failed. It is also unclear why Boeing could not use other spectrum bands, particularly where FSS services are authorized. Given the general dominance in value of terrestrial based services in almost every spectrum band, it is difficult to see how based on quantitative information the FCC would conclude that the 40 GHz or 50 GHz bands would be different. Historically, the FCC has allocated substantially swaths of spectrum to satellite use. Some satellite bands have proved quite profitable and publicly useful, while many others have not.
  2. Mutual exclusivity of service The FCC would receive or would conduct quantitative studies of the potential compatibility of various services in a band. This is the issue that the Boeing Company and Straight Path Communications are presenting to the Commission.
  3. Past Commission experience The Boeing petition involves new satellite services. Over the past three decades, the FCC has allocated many bands of spectrum to various satellite services. Some have been geostationary, and others have been low-earth orbit services. With the exception of direct broadcast satellite services, most if not all of these satellite services have struggled. In allocation proceedings that consider past Commission experience, the Commission might reasonably consider the experience of allocations to the broader satellite industry.
  4. Separating allocations from assignments The Commission usually separates sequentially the allocation from the assignment process. The Boeing Petition appears to seek both reallocation of spectrum and use and license assignments within that new allocation, all apparently without an auction. While there may be reasonable but rare circumstances when the Commission should reallocate and assign licenses in the same proceeding—an example might be when a licensee seeks to expand service into an adjacent fallow band of spectrum and where there is no practical alternative use of the spectrum—the burden of proof should be on the party seeking assignments without an auction.

The Commission would combine these various quantitative assessments to allocate spectrum. Presumably, these quantitative assessments would be replicable.

D. The qualitative administrative state
The fourth approach to resolving disputes over competing uses of spectrum is what I would characterize as a qualitative administrative state. Here, the FCC would decide on allocations of spectrum, including reallocations of spectrum, based on factors that are difficult to quantify or replicate. These qualitative factors might be labeled “public interest” even though reasonable individuals might differ on how to assess these qualitative factors. An example would be the rules the FCC devised for the current incentive auction involving set asides and other attempts to specifically advantage some companies over others.

VII. CONCLUSION

High-frequency spectrum is part of one of the last frontiers. Unlike the space frontiers of Star Trek, the frontiers of high-frequency spectrum are here and now. They are not science fiction; they are the reality that scientists and engineers are rapidly developing.

The Commission will continue to be confronted with petitions to reallocate spectrum. Some will have merit; others will not. Current practice is for the Commission to take years to decide through laborious proceedings that predict future technologies and economics only to be proved exactly wrong.

We can continue to allocate high-frequency spectrum as we have in the past. Or we can learn from past mistakes and rely on better, more market-oriented allocation mechanisms.

The economic consequences of getting more efficient use of spectrum from market mechanisms are enormous. The consequences of not getting more efficient use of spectrum are both tragic and economically irrational.

About the author:
*Harold Furchtgott-Roth,
Director, Center for the Economics of the Internet

Source:
This article was published by the Hudson Institute.

Notes:
1 Director, Center for the Economics of the Internet, Hudson Institute. The views expressed in the paper, and any errors contained herein, are entirely my own.

2 FCC, 16-89, Report and Order and Further Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, Use of Spectrum Bands Above 24 GHz For Mobile Radio Services, July 14, 2016. Several dockets, including one that dated from 1997, formed the foundation of the Order.
3
4 For a review of early spectrum regulation, see H. Furchtgott-Roth, “The Economic Value of Property Rights Concepts in Spectrum, Both With and Without Licenses,” unpublished manuscript, 2016.
5 Ibid.
6 FCC, Docket GN 14-177, Use of Spectrum Bands Above 24 GHz For Mobile Radio Services, Notice of Inquiry. See particularly paragraphs 46-87.
7 FCC 14-154, Docket GN 14-177, Notice of Inquiry, October 17, 2014, paragraph 1.
8 FCC, 15-138, Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, Use of Spectrum Bands Above 24 GHz For Mobile Radio Services, October 23, 2015.
9 Ibid. paragraphs 35-53.
10 FCC, 16-89, Report and Order and Further Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, Use of Spectrum Bands Above 24 GHz For Mobile Radio Services, July 14, 2016.
11 Ibid., paragraphs 418-423.
12 See in particular the 24 GHz band, the 39 GHz band, and the LMDS band.
13 Two of the most influential papers on the importance of property rights and efficient economic allocation began with the example of the inefficient allocation of FCC radio licenses. Coase, Ronald H. (1959). “The Federal Communications Commission.” The Journal of Law & Economics, 2, 1–40. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/724927 See Coase, Ronald H. (1960). “The Problem of Social Cost.” The Journal of Law & Economics, 3, 1–44. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/724810. See also fn 4 above.
14 In language predating Professor Coase’s work, federal statute prohibits the private ownership of spectrum. 47 U.S.C. 301. But federal statute, in language from 1993, requires the auctioning of licenses for mutually exclusive applications that are part of blocks of spectrum transferred from the federal government to the private sector. 47 U.S.C. 309(j).
15 See H. Furchtgott-Roth, unpublished manuscript, 2016.
16 For the increase in demand for licensed spectrum, see, e.g., Coleman Bazelon and Giulia McHenry, “Substantial Licensed Spectrum Deficit (2015-2019): Updating the FCC’s Mobile Data Demand Projections,” June 23, 2015, prepared for CTIA, at http://www.ctia.org/docs/default-source/default-document-library/brattle_350MHz_licensed_spectrum.pdf,. For the increase in demand for spectrum not subject to licenses, see Cisco, “Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2015–2020 White Paper,” February 1, 2016, at http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/mobile-white-paper-c11-520862.html See also Roger Enter, “The Wireless Industry: Revisiting Spectrum, The Essential Engine of U.S. Economic Growth, April 2016; GSMA, Valuing the Use of Spectrum in the EU, June 2013; Harold Furchtgott-Roth, (2009). The Wireless Sector: A Key to Economic Growth in America, report prepared for CTIA.
17 See, e.g., H. Furchtgott-Roth and Jeffrey Li, With Jeff Li, “The Contribution of the Information, Communications, and Technology Sector to the Growth of the U.S. Economy: 1997-2007,” August 2014, Hudson Institute, at http://hudson.org/research/10545-the-contribution-of-the-information-communications-and-technology-sector-to-the-growth-of-u-s-economy-1997-2007.
18 See H. Furchtgott-Roth 2013 and 2016.
19 As of November 30, there were 862 posted comments for the Docket 14-177 in the FCC’s ECFS database. Many more comments were filed earlier in previous dockets.
21 See, e.g., mobile rights in LMDS. Spectrum Frontiers Order, paragraphs 37-42.
22 FCC, Boeing Company, Petition for Rulemaking, Allocation and Authorization of Additional Spectrum for the Fixed-Satellite Service in the 50.4-51.4 GHz and 51.4-52.4 GHz Bands, June 22, 2016.
23 Ibid.
24 Letter from Scott K. Bergmann, Vice President, Regulatory Affairs, CTIA, to Marlene H. Dortch, Secretary, Federal Communications Commission, GN Docket No. 14-177 et al, at 3 (Jul. 7, 2016) (“CTIA July 7 Letter”).
25 Letter from Davidi Jonas, CEO and President, Straight Path Communications, Inc., to Marlene H. Dortch, Secretary, Federal Communications Commission, GN Docket No. 14-177, at 4 (Jul. 7, 2014) (“Straight Path Written Ex Parte”).
26 Letter from Bruce A. Olcott, Counsel to the Boeing Company, to Marlene H. Dortch, Secretary, Federal Communications Commission, GN Docket NO. 14-177, July 8, 2016; Comments of the Boeing Company, September 30, 2016; Reply Comments of the Boeing Company, October 31, 2016; Written Ex Parte Notice of the Boeing Company, November 21, 2016.
27 See discussion in Furchtgott-Roth, 2016.
28 It is unclear, which party, if any, has a claim to control either the 40 GHz or 50 GHz bands.

Trump And Policy Of Controlled Reduction Of Intervention In Middle East – Analysis

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By Hossein Kebriaeizadeh*

Perhaps, the current amount of speculation about future approaches to be taken by the US president-elect has had few, if any, precedents in the past. This confusion and lack of confidence about the future is the result of the recent presidential election in the United States. Following the election, a person has been chosen as the president of the United States, who lacks enough political and executive background to match this post. This state of limbo is seen more with regard to the United States’ future foreign policy approach, because foreign policy is a more tangible field for the new president.

For this reason, adopting a strategy by the new president to reduce his country’s costs in international arena can redirect the available assets and potentialities toward resolution of domestic crises in the United States. This issue will cause the country’s foreign policy apparatus to go for the second option when it finds itself at a crossroads where it would have to choose between maintaining the United States’ hegemony outside the borders through beefed-up military presence or attending to the country’s internal problems.

In the meantime, from the viewpoint of Trump, continued presence in the Middle East, as a region where the United States has had high influence and also paid a high cost since the time of the former president, George Bush Jr., is subject to a lot of debate and doubts. In view of domestic concerns faced by Trump, the new president is now faced with two main options to choose from: 1. continuation of the United States’ past interventionist policy, or 2. continuation of President Barack Obama’s policies by changing the type of US presence in other parts of the world and reducing the costs of a possible war through this policy.

The way Trump is apparently going to put neoconservative figures in key posts shows that Trump and his team must first deal with a fundamental contradiction before taking any action or decision. Accepting Trump’s domestic priority for reduction of US presence in such key regions as the Middle East would send the signal to regional and transregional actors like Europe that they would see a new period of decline in US hegemony, which would not be compatible with the ideal of the Republican figures. On the other hand, modifying the idea of US exceptionalism would require acceptance of new intra-party realities and a new discourse under the leadership of Trump. It is not clear to what extent Trump will be able to lead such a discourse-based current, but it is clear that this will take time and no specific results can be expected in short term.

Therefore, due to structural and financial limitations faced by the United States, we are currently witnessing watering down of the ideological and extremist reading of the American exceptionalism at least with regard to the way that Trump’s America is going to deal with the Middle East. A look at Trump’s election slogans, including those in which he said littoral Arab states of the Persian Gulf would be billed for Washington’s presence in the region, shows that the cost and benefit equation will play a more active role in the United States’ foreign policy and in the Middle East than ever before.

Of course, if this approach is practically taken by the United States, it would add to the costs of rich Arab states in the region, but it is not possible to face much opposition from them in view of the threats that these actors think are facing and also because of their inability in various security fields.

It seems that after a short period of tension, relations between the United States and Arab countries in the Persian Gulf will enter a new phase of interaction, though with different rules of game compared to the past years. Since the new US president looks upon foreign policy through the lens of business-like definitions, concepts and models, he is possible to come up with a lingua franca in order to talk to regional Arab states, which for their part, are also good in trade and business. In this lingua franca, the concept of free ride would mean nothing to either of the two sides.

However, the most important field, which needs urgent decision, is Syria. It seems that Trump may embark on some sort of gambling in Syria, and as he has said before, may opt for political bargaining with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. The positive aspect of such a strategy is that regional actors have also reached the conclusion that close cooperation between Moscow and Washington will decrease spiritual and material costs that they have to undertake for the annihilation of Daesh. It is simply logical for regional actors to try to own more trump cards in this win-win game, while Russia and the United States will also try to get more concessions of regional actors. This situation will provide good opportunities for Trump to take advantage of his abilities.

Trump’s approach to the peace process between Arabs and Israel was not different from his predecessors even in the heat of election hustings, and this is why analysts believe that no change will take place in the longstanding confrontation between Palestinians and Israel under the new US president. They also maintain that Trump will continue to support the two-state solution, though no serious effort has been made to do away with its blind spots and ambiguities.

However, according to Trump’s election remarks, the issue of Iran and its nuclear deal with the P5+1 group of countries, which is known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), will be among the most challenging issues facing the new US president. Trump had noted previously that he would rip the JCPOA. Later on, however, he corrected his past position and said he would try to work out a better agreement with Iran. But in practice, Trump will realize that the cost of any breach of promises and showing disrespect for other parties involved in the conclusion of the nuclear agreement will be much higher than he imagines even when changes remain limited to small details of the agreement and not its main frame.

On the other hand, in view of Iran’s high influence in the Middle East, if the United States practically turned its back on the JCPOA and adopted a hostile approach to Iran, it would increase the costs of not accepting the nuclear deal too heavy for Trump to be able to risk it given domestic conditions in the United States and the country’s policy to reduce its military presence across the world.

On the whole, it seems that when special cases and exceptions are set aside, Trump’s approach to the Middle East will be midway between previous approaches adopted by former US president, George Bush Jr., and incumbent President Barack Obama. In other words, the new US president will go for the policy of controlled reduction of foreign interventions, so that, he would both avoid leaving the Middle East entirely to such rivals as Russia, while managing the costs and benefits of such measures in a more efficient way.

* Hossein Kebriaeizadeh

Expert on Middle East Issues

Kata’ib Humat Al-Diyar: Prominent Loyalist Militia In Suwayda – Analysis

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By Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi*

The predominantly Druze province of Suwayda’ in southern Syria has a variety of militia factions, some of which lean more third-way and reformist from within (most notably the Rijal al-Karama movement) and others of a more Assad regime loyalist orientation. Kata’ib Humat al-Diyar (“Guardians of the Abode Battalions,” whose name references the Syrian national anthem Humat al-Diyar) represents one of the latter factions. It is led by Nazih Jerbo’ (Abu Hussein), who is a relative of Sheikh Yusuf Jerbo’, one of the three Mashayakh al-‘Aql representing the highest religious authorities among the Druze in Syria. On account of the Mashayakh al-‘Aql’s links with the regime, Sheikh Yusuf Jerbo’, who succeeded Nazih’s father Hussein on the latter’s death in December 2012, is firmly on the regime’s side and indeed has played an important role in the building of Dir’ al-Watan, a pro-regime formation in Suwayda’ province that was set up more recently than Kata’ib Humat al-Diyar. According to Samir al-Shabali, who led a Kata’ib Humat al-Diyar contingent in the Suwayda’ village of Ariqa but is now in the Kata’ib al-Ba’ath (“Ba’ath Brigades”), Kata’ib Humat al-Diyar’s origins date much further back to 2012.

Indeed, according to the media director for Rijal al-Karama, Kata’ib Humat al-Diyar has been around for a long time and has “many people” in its ranks, though he adds that the National Defence Forces in Suwayda’ province is bigger than Kata’ib Humat al-Diyar. One member of Kata’ib Humat al-Diyar claimed that the formation has 2000 fighters.

Considering Nazih Jerbo’s relation with Sheikh Yusuf Jerbo’, it is unsurprising that Kata’ib Humat al-Diyar also reflects a regime loyalist position. This stance is made very clear in the group’s social media output. For example, in August 2015, Kata’ib Humat al-Diyar advertised a visit to its base from the Arab Unity Party “to affirm shared positions in protecting the mountain [Jabal al-Arab/Druze: Suwayda’].” For context, note that the Arab Unity Party (Hizb al-Tawhid al-Arabi) is a Lebanese party primarily supported by Druze opposed to Walid Jumblatt, who has come out against Bashar al-Assad during the Syrian civil war. The leader of the Arab Unity Party- Wiam Wahhab- has played a notable role over the past few years in organizing efforts in Suwayda’ province in defence of the regime. Indeed, the group even has a militia fighting in Syria- under the monikers of Katibat Ammar bin Yasir and the “Arab Tawhidi Resistance”- that has claimed ‘martyrs’ in fighting in northern Suwayda’ in summer 2014 (though note the particular individuals named were also presented as ‘martyrs’ of the Popular Committees) and more recently in the Druze area of Hadr in Quneitra province in November 2016. The reference to Ammar bin Yasir- one of the companions of the Prophet- is a reflection of Ammar bin Yasir’s importance in the Druze faith, while Tawhidi can refer to the “Unity” part of Wiam Wahhab’s party, as well as the fact that Druze call themselves Muwahhideen (“monotheists”: like Tawhid, based on the same derivative form of Arabic root w-h-d). The “Resistance” aspect clearly references the notion of the regional “resistance” axis supporting the regime.

Besides the meeting with the Arab Unity Party itself, Kata’ib Humat al-Diyar has participated in events convened by other factions supporting the regime in Suwayda’, such as the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, which has an important base of support in Suwayda’ province and opened a new base in Ariqa in July 2015, an event that was also attended by the National Defence Forces, Ba’ath Brigades and a local faction known as the Ammar bin Yasir group, an obvious reference in this case to the shrine in Ariqa for Ammar bin Yasir. According to Samir al-Shabali, this Ammar bin Yasir group is independent and relies on arming from local people. Therefore it should not be confused with the Arab Unity Party’s Katibat Ammar bin Yasir that is fighting in Syria.

Kata’ib Humat al-Diyar has engaged in other forms of local outreach such as through  hosting local sheikhs for meetings, who have visited both the group’s base and the house of Nazih Jerbo’. These meetings, advertised in June and August 2015 respectively, partly reflected the same and familiar rhetorical stances, such as standing united against threats from “terrorism” and/or the “enemies of the homeland,” while warning against fitna (“strife”). The concept of fitna is a common talking point within discourse in Suwayda’ province, referring most notably to the dangers posed by internal partisan rivalries that can distract from threats that the province is facing from outside forces such as the rebels to the west in Deraa province and the Islamic State to the northeast. This is particularly relevant in the case of the competition for influence between Rijal al-Karama and the loyalist factions in Suwayda’ province.

Kata’ib Humat al-Diyar’s activities on the ground, as promoted by the militia itself, primarily concern maintaining internal security in Suwayda’ province including inside Suwayda’ city alongside popular committee militias that are also aligned with the regime. The main military engagement that appears to have been claimed by the militia outside Suwayda’ province thus far came amid the mobilization of Syrian Druze to defend the village of Hadr  after the rebels launched a new offensive in the area in September 2016.

Though the maintenance of internal security has included battles within Suwayda’ province such as one in May 2015 that was fought in the Haqaf area in eastern Suwayda’ province in coordination with multiple factions (including Rijal al-Karama) against the Islamic State, Kata’ib Humat al-Diyar mainly seems to focus on confiscating smuggled goods, such as medicines, drugs and oil. Portraying itself as a group upholding the state and the nation, Kata’ib Humat al-Diyar says that the medicines and oil in particular are bound for areas like Deraa under rebel control, and thus the smugglers are bartering with people’s lives and the nation’s existence for the sake of profiteering. In the case of smuggled medicines, in May 2015 the group claimed that its leader directed sending confiscated medicines to the health directorate in Suwayda’ by the agreement of Atef al-Nadaf, the provincial governor at the time. These medicines were then to be distributed to the various health centres in the province in order to help the children and sick.

However, like many militias in the Syrian civil war, Kata’ib Humat al-Diyar faces accusations of criminal behaviour and acting outside the rule of law. For example, the anti-regime leaning Arab Druze Identity Movement, also known as The Identity Movement in Jabal al-Arab, wrote in May 2016 that one of the members of Kata’ib Humat al-Diyar killed a person from the village of al-Dur following a driving incident, but has been able to find safe refuge thanks to his affiliation with the militia. This event, the group adds, follows on from one last year in which the militia killed someone from the Murshid family. The latter incident involved the killing of a university student called Murad Sanad Murshid as armed men who had set up a checkpoint opened fire on his car. The exact identity of the perpetrators appears to be disputed. One account from the time of the incident in July 2015 says that the perpetrators were from the Kata’ib al-Ba’ath, though adds that the deceased’s family initially thought Nazih Jerbo’s men were responsible and accordingly attacked his home. It was partly in this context that the meeting with local sheikhs advertised in August 2015 by Kata’ib Humat al-Diyar came about, whereby sheikhs from the deceased person’s village of Haran came to the house of Nazih Jerbo’. In a similar vein, the meeting advertised by the militia in June 2015 partly referred to another controversy in which Kata’ib Humat al-Diyar was accused of arresting, torturing and killing a few people from the Bedouin minority on the grounds of bombarding Suwayda’ city. Again, as with the July 2015 incident, the identity of the perpetrators is disputed, with some accounts holding that it was actually al-Amn al-Askari (The Military Security: i.e. Military Intelligence) that carried out these acts and then accused Kata’ib Humat al-Diyar, which denied any wrongdoing.

Even so, Kata’ib Humat al-Diyar is accused of being one of the leading groups relied on by the regional al-Amn al-Askari head Wafiq Nasir for kidnapping operations in Suwayda’ province, a lucrative business said to be worth more than 850,000,000 Syrian pounds in the province in terms of ransoms paid. Also, despite the anti-smuggling image of the group, allegations also exist of certain members’ involvement in profiteering through setting up checkpoints to allow smugglers to pass (e.g. here) or similar involvement in smuggling operations deemed detrimental to the security of the province (cf. here).

In any case, this overview of Kata’ib Humat al-Diyar illustrates that the influence and size of the loyalist factions in Suwayda’ province should not be underestimated, despite the growth of Rijal al-Karama. Indeed, third-way leaning groups cannot afford full-blown open confrontation with the loyalist groups as it would simply prove too costly, and ultimately the priority must be to defend Suwayda’ province from external attack. As the media director for Rijal al-Karama put it, “In the event of an external attack on the Jabal, all factions unite.”

This article was published by Syria Comment

China Is Laughing At Trump’s Twitter Feed – OpEd

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By Mitchell Blatt*

Donald Trump’s phone call with Taiwan’s president Tsai Ying-wen upended 37 years of precedent in U.S. foreign policy and potentially raised tensions with China, but his tweets afterwards didn’t help matters.

Since the phone call made the news, Trump tweeted, “The President of Taiwan CALLED ME” in an attempt to deflect some of the responsibility, and then added, “Interesting how the U.S. sells Taiwan billions of dollars of military equipment but I should not accept a congratulatory call.” (Taiwan’s government said that both sides agreed to the call ahead of time and agreed that Tsai would formally initiate the call, according to the Straits Times.)

What these tweets show is Trump is ignorant of world affairs and doesn’t give much consideration to how his words could affect foreign relations. Does he not know the rest of the world can read his Twitter feed, too? More likely he just doesn’t care.

Since 1979, the U.S. has had diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China. China demands that any country with whom they have diplomatic relations not recognize Taiwan as an independent country. While America continues to have under-the-table relations with Taiwan, America doesn’t openly recognize Taiwan as a country and doesn’t have an official embassy on the island. (The American Institute in Taiwan, technically a non-profit organization, serves the functions of an embassy.)

To call Tsai the President of Taiwan is taken by many in China as to imply that Taiwan is a sovereign nation.

Next he tweeted about the fact that America sells weapons to Taiwan. (He could have also mentioned the fact that his company is trying to develop hotels in Taiwan.)

Of course everyone knows that Taiwan has a defacto president and that America sells them weapons–he’s not sharing confidential information. But such comments and actions could unnecessarily provoke China. He could start a conflict through his own ignorance.

Moreover, the DPP, which supports greater autonomy from China and pushes for formal recognition of independence, could use Trump’s ignorance to push for its own agenda. A DPP legislator praised the call as a breakthrough in the Straits Times.

His tweets were widely shared on China’s Weibo microblog:img_8004
Wang Jingyu, a professor of law at the National University of Singapore, remarked about how Trump called Tsai the “President of Taiwan” and said there was a risk of provocation. “How can the people in China who welcomed Trump taking office console themselves?”img_8008

To that effect, another Weibo user said, “Chinese Trumpsters, be careful what you wish for!”

There was a narrative in China that Trump, due to his calls to stay out of foreign interventions and threats to withdraw from Korea and Japan, would be better for China than “warmongering” Hillary Clinton. Now one can see that complete ignorance of the world can be more dangerous than cold-hearted pursuit of a nation’s national interests.img_8009

Thomas Chen, a news editor for Sina, wrote that Trump’s comments about weapons were “very funny!”

Wei Peng wrote, “Trump must be receiving widespread criticism from America’s diplomatic circle.”

About the author:
*Mitchell Blatt moved to China in 2012, and since then he has traveled and written about politics and culture throughout Asia. A writer and journalist, based in China, he is the lead author of Panda Guides Hong Kong guidebook and a contributor to outlets including The Federalist, China.org.cn, The Daily Caller, and Vagabond Journey. Fluent in Chinese, he has lived and traveled in Asia for three years, blogging about his travels at ChinaTravelWriter.com. You can follow him on Twitter at @MitchBlatt.

Iraq: KRG Restrictions Harm Yezidi Recovery, Says HRW

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The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq has placed disproportionate restrictions on the movement of goods into and out of the district of Sinjar, the center for Iraq’s Yezidi religious minority.

KRG officials say that the KRG is concerned about the activities of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), an armed Kurdish militant organization that has forces in Sinjar, mostly made up of Yezidi fighters, and has de facto free movement across the border into Syria. But, just two years after the people of the district were subjected to violent attacks and abuses by the Islamic State (also known as ISIS), blanket KRG restrictions disproportionate to any possible security considerations are causing unnecessary harm to people’s access to food, water, livelihoods, and other fundamental rights.

“After the devastating ISIS attacks on the area and slaughter of the Yezidi population two years ago, the KRG’s restrictions are another serious blow,” said Lama Fakih, deputy Middle East director at Human Rights Watch. “The KRG should be working to facilitate access to Sinjar for the hundreds of Yezidi civilians wishing to return to their homes, not adding more barriers to their recovery.”

Before August 2014, Sinjar was home to 360,000 Yezidis. ISIS fighters have killed between 2,000 and 5,500 Yezidis since August 3, 2014, and abducted an estimated 6,386, according to a recent United Nations report. The ISIS attacks displaced at least 90 percent of the Yezidi population from Sinjar. Over 180,000 displaced Yezidis are in camps in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Only a small number of Yezidis have returned.

Sinjar is technically under Iraqi central government administrative control, but KRG security and military forces are present and active within Sinjar. KRG forces control the one main road from Sinjar in to the KRI. ISIS still controls the main roads from Sinjar to other parts of Iraq.

In August 2016, Human Rights Watch visited four camps for internally displaced people in Dohuk, in the KRI, and four towns in northern Sinjar, and interviewed 67 displaced people and local residents. Interviewees included residents who had tried to take produce from their farmland or personal property from their homes out of Sinjar but were restricted from doing so by KRG security forces, and those who had tried to take in food and other supplies to family members who returned to Sinjar and were stopped and returned by KRG forces.

Since the ISIS attack on Sinjar in 2014, the only route out of Sinjar into Iraq not controlled by ISIS is via the Suhaila bridge crossing, two kilometers from the Syrian border, which is controlled by KRG forces. Southern Sinjar is still under ISIS control.

The Rohingya Genocide: No Longer A Myth – OpEd

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A genocide is taking place against the Rohingyas of Myanmar. It is not a new one in this Buddhist-majority country and has been an on-going ethnic cleansing national program to erase Muslim presence since Burma emerged as an independent state.

After General Ne Win took power in 1962 in a military coup, the status of Rohingya further deteriorated. His military junta adopted a policy of “Myanmarisation”, which was an ultra-nationalist ideology based on the racial purity of the Myanma (or more properly Bama) ethnicity and its Buddhist faith.

By 1977, the Rohingyas had witnessed at least 13 pogroms. Their condition turned worse in 1978 when the Naga Min or King Dragon Operation started on February 6 from the biggest Muslim village of Sakkipara in Akyab (now called Sittwe). The purpose of this operation was to scrutinize each individual within the state as either a citizen or alleged “illegal immigrant”. It sent shock waves over the whole region within a short time. The news of mass arrest of Muslims, male and female, young and old, torture, rape and killing in Akyab panicked Muslims greatly in other towns of North Arakan (now called the Rakhine state).

In March 1978 the operation reached Buthidaung and Maungdaw (close to the border with Bangladesh). Hundreds of Muslim men and women were thrown into the jail and many of them were tortured and killed. Muslim women were raped freely in the detention centers. Terrified by the utter ferocity and ruthlessness of the operation and total uncertainty of their life, property, honor and dignity, a large number Rohingya Muslims left their homes to cross the Burma-Bangladesh border. Within 3 months nearly a quarter million Rohingyas took shelter in makeshift camps erected by Bangladesh Government.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) recognized them as genuine refugees and started relief operations. Many of the refugees were later repatriated to Myanmar where they faced further torture, rape, jail and death.

To justify the on-going ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya, the Burma Citizenship Law (1982), co-authored by a wicked Rakhine academic Aye Kyaw, was passed during the Ne Win era. The Rohingyas were not listed as one of the country’s 135 “national races” entitled to Burmese citizenship, effectively making them a people without a state — even after living for generations in Arakan. They became the most persecuted people in our planet.

“Stripped officially of their citizenship, the Rohingya found their lives in limbo: prohibited from the right to own land or property, barred from travelling outside their villages, repairing their decaying places of worship, receiving an education in any language or even marrying and having children without rarely granted government permission. The Rohingya have also been subjected to modern-day slavery, forced to work on infrastructure projects, such as constructing ‘model villages’ to house the Myanmar settlers intended to displace them, reminiscent of their treatment at the hands of the Burmese kings of history,” Professor Akbar Ahmed observes.

To further terrorize the already marginalized Rohingya people, the Pyi Thaya Operation (or Operation Clean and Beautiful Nation) was launched by the military in July 1991. This major pogrom lasting for nearly a year resulted in the exodus of some 268,000 Rohingyas to Bangladesh. The United Nations Refugee Agency referred to those operations as “ethnic cleansing campaigns led by the military junta itself.”

Dr. Michael W. Charney, a University of London scholar who specializes in South East Asian studies, wrote in his paper Buddhism in Arakan: Theory and Historiography of the Religious Basis of the Ethnonym that the “Rohingya […] are compelled to thrive under really testing conditions where even their personal lives are under strict state scrutiny. Whatever property they inherited from their ancestors have been forcefully taken away from them, and granted to the Buddhist majority under the banner of different national schemes that served to institutionalize and hence legitimize racist discrimination of Rohingya”.

Benjamin Zawacki, Senior Legal Advisor for Southeast Asia at the International Commission of Jurists, in his article Defining Myanmar’s “Rohingya Problem,” this is “a political, social, and economic system – manifested in law, policy, and practice – designed to discriminate against this ethnic and religious minority [which] makes such direct violence against the Rohingya far more possible and likely than it would be otherwise”.

In spite of murderous activities of the junta and their henchmen, the Rohingyas of Arakan refused to vanish from the Mogher Mulluk of Burma. So, the military junta come with a new program, no less sinister than the previous ones.

NaSaKa (Nay-Sat Kut-kwey Ye), a border security/military force, was create in 1992 to terrorize the Rohingyas of Arakan on a daily basis. It was to be found only in North Arakan (Rakhine) state, where they became the main perpetrators of human rights abuse against the Rohingya. The day-to-day lives of the Rohingya took a dramatic turn for the worse. They faced severe restrictions on their movement and were subjected to forced labor and arbitrary land seizure and forced displacement, and endured excessive taxes and extortion. Since 1994, it has been illegal for married Rohingya to have more than two children. In the words of Pulitzer-winning journalist and photographer Greg Constantine “almost all aspects of their lives in North Rakhine are controlled or exploited by NaSaKa.”

The persecution and abuses of power by the NaSaKa, terrorizing the Rohingya, continued unabated for decades until it was disbanded with the advent of a so-called reform government that was led by Thein Sein, an ex-military general. He promised democracy and opened the doors of Myanmar for foreign investment. The gesture was reciprocated by the West by withdrawing its economic and military sanctions against the once-pariah government. During Thein Sein’s time, the old IDs and national cards were all seized from the Rohingya people who were also banned from participating in the general elections. What is worse, his regime empowered Buddhist terrorist monks who through popular religio-fascist organizations like the MaBaTha continued to spread hate crimes and prepare the groundwork for the latest genocidal crimes against all Muslims, esp. the Rohingyas of Arakan. The latter were falsely portrayed as ‘illegals’ from nearby Bangladesh who are’ threatening’ the Buddhist identity of the country through ‘high birth rates’. Deliberately omitted in such narratives was the mere fact that the percentage of Muslims have been declining since Burma won independence from Britain.

Shwe Maung, a Rakhine politician, told The Economist that “[Rohingyas] are trying to Islamize us through their terrible birth rate.” Wirathu, the terrorist Buddhist monk, mentioned to Global Post “Muslims are like the African carp. They breed quickly and they are very violent. They eat their own kind.” Finally, President Thein Sein reiterated that, for the government, “the Rohingya were not citizens of Myanmar” and that he wished to “hand over the entire ethnic group to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in order to settle them in a different country.”

It was in this highly poisonous environment that the 2012 genocidal campaigns against the Rohingya was unleashed. Within weeks in June nearly a quarter million Muslims were internally displaced inside Myanmar in an orgy of Buddhist violence that was participated from top to bottom, enjoying full support from the government, politicians and the Buddhist monks. It was Rwanda all over again in this genocidal crime against the Muslims, esp. the Rohingyas, of Myanmar.

And I am not alone when I state that the Rohingyas are victims of genocide. From the Human Rights Watch to the academic experts on genocide concur. Phil Robertson, Asia director for Humans Right Watch, wrote nearly four years ago that “the Burmese government engaged in a campaign of ethnic cleansing against the Rohingya that continues today”. Professor William Schabas, former President of the International Association of Genocide Scholars, went a step further and cautioned, “we’re moving into a zone where the [genocide] word can be used.”

Whatever doubt, if any, against the use of the term ‘genocide’ have to be shelved after October 9 of this year (2016) when the Myanmar security forces attacked Rohingya villages, ethnically cleansing these. According to ARNO, more than 500 innocent Rohingya civilians were killed, many hundreds of women raped, about 3,500 houses were burned down, unknown number of people arrested and involuntarily disappeared, and at least 40,000 internally displaced, in addition to systematic destruction of rice, paddy and food products. About 10,000 people had also fled to Bangladesh. Regular humanitarian assistance has been disrupted for many weeks, putting at risk over 150,000 vulnerable people. Reports indicate a marked deterioration of the human rights situation in northern Rakhine State. And yet, Suu Kyi remains nonchalant by such gross violations of her security forces. Like a sly politician who is more interested in solidifying her hold to power, she seems approving of the war crimes of her murderous military who continues to use her as a pawn to carry out their religio-fascist Myanmarism.

The Rohingya predicament underlines a paradox for Buddhism, which emphasizes compassion and kindness and yet, we see little evidence of this in its dealings with the Rohingya people.

Will our generation ever see the end of this monstrous crime? I simply don’t know the answer. And yet, like many other well-wishers of the persecuted peoples in our planet, I would like to see a quick end to this shameful event. The sooner the better!

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