Quantcast
Channel: Eurasia Review
Viewing all 73339 articles
Browse latest View live

Catastrophe In Burundi: Tragic Human Cost Of Political Deadlock – Analysis

0
0

The international community must face up to the Burundian crisis, because by common consensus it is on the verge of explosive reignition. By reason of complex current political upheavals, it is estimated that perhaps as many as 100,000 Burundian people are become refugees or displaced persons every month. Burundi is a catastrophe in the making, yet the world seems determined to look the other way.

By Matthew Parish*

The Great Lakes Region has had more than its fair share of humanitarian catastrophes, and on each occasion the United Nations Organisation has been compelled to intervene in the face of massive human suffering and loss of life. Yet extraordinarily, there is now yet another military calamity unfolding in the one of the region’s smallest nations: a country that has already suffered so terribly before and yet the lessons of history are in danger of not being learned.

Burundi has some of the lowest quality-of-life indices in the world, and no nation deserves to suffer civil war. Yet Burundi is now facing the risk of renewed civil conflict, only very shortly after a gruesome and extended civil war that lasted from 1993 to 2006 that even on conservative estimates resulted in the deaths of some 300,000 people. The risk of renewal of past horrors is a potentially catastrophic turn of events, and the international community is morally bound to rise to the challenge of averting unprecedented levels of human suffering once again when prior atrocities are so fresh in our minds.

The statistics speak for themselves. Burundi has one of the most alarming rates of infant mortality: over 80 per 1000 live births as of 2011. Compare this with a mean of 31 in South Africa or just over 6 in the United States. Burundi has a mortifying history of recruitment of child soldiers. According to the Child Soldiers Global Report 2004:

Use of child soldiers was widespread in government forces and all active armed political groups. Children as young as ten served in the Burundi armed forces and militia, the Gardiens de la paix (Peace Guards), as combat troops, spies and domestic labour. Armed political groups abducted girls into sexual slavery. Child soldiers fought with Burundian armed political groups in Burundi, and with Burundian and Congolese armed political groups in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). A program began in January 2004 for the demobilization of 2,500 child soldiers, most of them from government forces, although an estimated 5,000 further child soldiers required demobilization. However, armed political groups, including those taking part in the demobilization project, continued to recruit children to their ranks.

The prevalence of recruitment of minors into the military is no doubt a reflection of the country’s astoundingly dejecting rates of child education. Although in theory mandatory schooling applies from the ages of 7 to 13, the reality is that many schools were destroyed by the end of the civil war that concluded in 2006 and reconstruction has not been nearly so progressive as it might have been. Acute teacher shortages are compounded by lack of access to educational materials. Children are often forced to walk miles every day to the closest school building. For many, attending school is impossible, and denial of the right to education is a burden that falls disproportionately upon girls. All too often, the devastating consequences of war compound social and sexual inequality.

The consequences of this compounding catalogue of social calamities are not hard to divine. Literacy rates stand at barely 60%, and Burundi is ranked in the bottom ten countries worldwide in the Human Development Rankings. Even the most elementary professional training is in short supply. Teachers need to be trained to teach children on matters as elementary as the use of water pumps and latrines, the dangers of HIV/AIDS, and the risks of other virulent infectious diseases.

There has been some good news. In 2012 the UN Secretary General commended UNICEF in achieving massive improvements in educational standards in Burundi. Nevertheless problems remain, and the most pressing reason for this underperformance is absence of resources. Children drop out of school at alarmingly high rates, and their subsequent destinations are often unclear but depressingly ominous. While UNICEF strives hard to ensure that the Sustainable Development Goals in education are pursued with the greatest of energy, the unstable local political environment in Burundi presents this as a perennial challenge.

Infectious disease, afflicting not just children but the entirety of the population, including the elderly and the most vulnerable, remain rampant. Amongst some of the most critical medical problems affecting Burundi are infant botulism; yellow fever; malaria; typhoid; and in some cases hepatitis B and even rabies. Sanitary and medical infrastructure is so sparse that it is reflected in depressing statistics. Humanium, the children’s rights charity, assigns to Burundi its gravest level of accreditation of children’s rights: namely inclusion a black list indicating a very serious situation. Notwithstanding, some 45% of the population is under the age of 15 in a country of over 10 million. Children are simply not living to see adulthood. Some half of the population has no access to potable water, while almost 70% of the population lives below internationally recognised poverty lines. Although reliable statistics are rarely available due to frailties in government infrastructure, reports indicate child trafficking and prostitution are recurrent problems in this most impoverished of nations.

One of the reasons reliable statistics are so hard to come by is because it is estimated a mere 60% of Burundian children are even registered at birth. Perhaps 400,000 children live homeless, on the streets. Over 100,000 children are orphaned by reason of AIDS. Many children remain incarcerated without trial or evidence by reason of their prior (and necessarily involuntary) participation as child soldiers. Child labour is endemic, with a particular risk exposed for young girls who may be forced into domestic servitude without legal rights or adequate social protections.

UNICEF has been undertaking admirable field world in screening children for malnutrition in Burundi in the most taxing of circumstances, but anecdotal evidence suggests that malnutrition remains a severe problem amongst Burundi’s youth, particularly for those substantial proportions of the population living in refugee camps. In such chaotic circumstances, accurate statistics remain elusive but it is believed that more than 50% of the Burundian refugee population comprises minors.

The international community must face up to the Burundian crisis, because by common consensus it is on the verge of explosive reignition. By reason of complex current political upheavals, it is estimated that perhaps as many as 100,000 Burundian people are become refugees or displaced persons every month. Burundi is a catastrophe in the making, yet the world seems determined to look the other way. This must change, and it is the international community’s solemn obligation to ensure that it does so. The agony suffered by Burundi’s population, the majority of whom are children or the dispossessed, is so inhuman that the entire civilised world is duty-bound to act lest its conscience never be forgiven.

International statesmen harbour indivisible consensus upon these principles. The British Ambassador to the United Nations insists that Security Council Member states “ensure that we are doing everything possible to increase the pressure on the authorities in Burundi to warn against the dangers of mass atrocities” and thereby regress to the horrors of the past. Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame implores that Burundians learn the lessons of his own country’s tragic history. “People are dying every day, dead bodies are being dragged along the streets every day”. Secretary General-elect Antonio Guterres understands the problem all too well, emphasising that the last thing Burundi needs is another crisis. The US State Department has publicly called for investigations into human rights abuses. The French President François Hollande expressed his deep concerns about the return to violence in Burundi, in a letter sent to the country’s President: but apparently to no avail. Even though the Russian view is that the Security Council has no proper role in political intervention in Burundi’s sovereign and constitutional affairs – an opinion that as a matter of international law surely commands respect and due deliberation even if some analysts might in the final analysis respectfully differ – Russia nonetheless remains profoundly concerned about the humanitarian crisis unfolding in the country. It benefits nobody, and it threatens to destabilise the entire Great Lakes region.

In Burundi’s contemporary political disputes, the United Nations is compelled as a matter of principle and integrity to act as an honest broker. But that is entirely consistent with its ethical mandate to alleviate human suffering that weights upon the conscience and dignity of us all. The valiant staff of the United Nations present on the ground in Burundi undertake the most extraordinary work in the most challenging of conditions, and deserve the support of all civilised nations, as do the impoverished people of Burundi themselves. And therein lies the fundamental failure of international policy in exercising its duty of care for this benighted nation.

On some estimates, humanitarian aid to Burundi is a mere US$35 million. This contrasts with government expenditure of some US$800 million in one of the most impoverished countries in the world. The United Nations can and must fulfil its duties to alleviate poverty and render the lives of all Burundians tolerable and humane, and it has the capacities to do so. This is one of the areas of UN operation which is an exemplar of efficiency, and in which there is nominal institutional overlap and an absence of the political complexities associated with interventionist peacekeeping operations.

Yet this type of proven and effective multilateral assistance requires reliable commitment of funds. The foregoing levels of humanitarian aid amount to barely US$3.50 per person. The international community cannot help but to be ashamed of itself in the mediocrity of its contributions. If the humanitarian crisis in Burundi is not addressed now, the political crisis can only expect to be exacerbated and the ultimate costs of intervening in yet another Great Lakes crisis will surely dwarf the moderate resources now required to attempt realistic stabilisation of the situation.

The United Nations has a proven track record in achieving concrete results in Burundi. The world must not look away, simply because this country is small. We have experienced the unrelenting horrors of neglecting the Great Lakes region far too recently. We must not commit the same tragic fallacies again. There must be a call to act. The vulnerable and the suffering of Burundi depend upon it. Our consciences depend likewise depend upon the same moral imperative.

*Matthew Parish is a former UN peacekeeper in the Balkans and formerly served as Legal Counsel at the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development in Washington, DC. He is the Managing Partner of the Gentium Law Group in Geneva, and formerly served as Chief Political Advisor to Vuk Jeremic in the selection process to become the next UN Secretary General in 2016. Mr Jeremic came second. Matthew is now a key political supporter of the Secretary General-elect, Antonio Guterres. www.gentiumlaw.com, www.matthewparish.com

Macedonia: Both Main Parties Claim Election Victory

0
0

By Sinisa Jakov Marusic

Both main parties claimed victory in Macedonia’s general election on Sunday night. While the main ruling VMRO DPMNE claimed a slight lead of some 20,000 votes across the country, the opposition Social Democrats, SDSM, came out celebrating in front of the government HQ in Skopje, insisting it won one or possibly two more seats than their rivals.

The incomplete results from the State Electoral Commission show a tight race. Of 88.76 per cent of counted votes, VMRO DPMNE won 388,761 votes, or 38.36 per cent, while the Social Democrats won 368,144 votes, or 36.33 per cent.

However, some projections show that this may translate into an equal number of seats for both parties with both VMRO DPMNE and for the SDSM having 51 seats in the 123-seat parliament.

While SDSM had a convincing lead in the capital, Skopje, VMRO DPMNE won more votes in some more rural areas.

In the ethnic Albanian bloc, the junior ruling party, the Democratic Union for Integration, DUI, won 7.33 per cent of the total vote which may translate into eight or nine seats.

However, the chieg surprise in the Albanian bloc was the strong showing of the newly formed BESA party, which came very close to the DUI. Preliminary results suggest that BESA won 4.48 per cent which may translate into five seats.

BESA totally wiped out the Democratic Party of Albanians, DPA, traditionally one of the four biggest parties in Macedonia. The DPA won only 2.58 per cent of the votes, which would translate into two seats.

The third Albanian opposition bloc led by DPA – Movement for Reforms won 2.92 per cent which may translate into three seats.

The complete results from the State Electoral Commission are expected on Monday.

The elections come against a background of a deep political crisis in Macedonia which revolves around opposition claims that VMRO DPMNE leader Nikola Gruevski illegally wiretappe thousands of people, which he denied.

The voting comes after two years of crisis marked by frequent anti-government protests.

Syria: Islamic State Retakes Ancient City Of Palmyra

0
0

Islamic State (Daesh) forces have control of Syria’s ancient city of Palmyra once again on Sunday, the second time they have claimed the city in days and more than eight months after the militia was ousted by government forces, a monitoring group reports.

Daesh fighters have seized the historic city, its airport and a castle located outside Palmyra despite intense airstrikes by regime jets and those of its ally, Russia, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights adds.

The militants’ breakthrough comes hours after the air bombardment forced them to leave Palmyra following a brief takeover late Saturday.

In late March, government forces recaptured Palmyra, which Daesh had seized in May 2015, wreaking havoc on the city’s famed monuments.

Original source

Amending Constitution In Nepal: Why? What For And For Whom? – OpEd

0
0

The recent constitution amendment bill to change the boundary of provinces in the constitution registered as per Article 296 of the Constitution of Nepal at parliament by the government has brought turmoil to Nepal’s politics once again. Many political parties, including the main opposition CPN (UML), have obstructed parliamentary meetings since then. Many questions must be asked today: what makes the present Maoist government take such drastic action without greater political consultation? Why amendment in the first place? Most importantly, why is this amendment being proposed when the Madhesi parties themselves, at which the amendment is targeted, are not happy with the idea? It indicates many more things.

Firstly, the new constitution has barely started its life. We have not yet tested its efficiency. We have not tried to implement any of its provisions. Is it not fundamentally wrong to amend the constitution without testing it in practice? Does the amendment bill not go against the principle of constitutionalism itself? I strongly believe that the constitution as the supreme law of the land should be amended only to fill any remaining gaps found in implementation or to address people’s changed sentiments over a period of time or to change the fundamental structures of the state. How at this time can we know if there are lapses or gaps within the constitution without trying to implement it in the first place?

Since the proposed bill was tabled at the House, in many parts of the country, educational institutions and industries have remained closed and vehicles have stayed off the roads. Thousands of people poured onto the streets and chanted slogans against the move. Moreover, life in many parts of the country has continued to remain crippled owing to the shutdown called by people to protest against the proposed bill. It has effectively pushed the nation towards another political confrontation. Where is the respect of consultation politics? Where is the respect for the views of locals? Where is the democracy?

Secondly, the whole nation is asking many questions today regarding this issue: whose interests are the present government serving? I believe, however, that the constitution amendment process is a purely internal-political matter. It is nothing to do with our neighbours or other foreign powers. The whole nation is wondering what prompted Prachanda even to register the proposed amendment bill. What forces him to take such drastic action? Is he truly guided by the interests of the nation and of its people? Was he under pressure to register the bill despite protests against it from various quarters? Most importantly has the government made any effort at political consultation before tabling the amendment bill in the parliament?

Finally, I strongly believe that the amendment bill to the constitution promulgated by 90 percent of the people’s representatives is anti-national, unconstitutional, politically short-sighted and flawed. The consequences will be grave and far reaching. The bill has already polarised society further and created conflict between the different political forces. It seems as though consensus politics is a thing of the past in our country.

Our constitution was achieved in a most democratic manner through the Constituent Assembly, and it was endorsed by an overwhelming majority in the House. As I have already argued elsewhere, this constitution is progressive, inclusive and people oriented in many of its aspects. It has already created all kinds of civil, political and economic and social human rights. Only the effective enforcement of these provisions on time can fulfil these rights for the people. But without even trying proper enforcement, the proposed amendment process can only bring about a constitutional crisis and political instability. This will be most unfortunate for the country.

If we are to uphold the democratic system established by our constitution, the only way to put the country back on the right track is by consensus and cooperation among the political forces. Amending the constitution is a serious matter: It must not be undertaken lightly. It is not just an issue for the political parties. It is a matter of great public interest, indeed a national interest, and it will have huge consequences politically, socially and economically over the course of the future. We must ask ourselves very seriously: amending the constitution why, for what and for whom? Why now?

Whatever happens, the country and the people must be the winners. Social integrity and cohesion must be maintained. We must defeat those individuals and unknown powers who are trying to divide us, divide our values and divide the country itself in the name of amending constitution. The constitution must continue to serve the purposes of the nation as a whole and of the people themselves.

India As ‘Major Defense Partner’ Of United States – Analysis

0
0

India’s Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar and US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter have finalized India’s designation as “Major Defense Partner” of US. This means the facilitation of trade and transfer of technology at par with closest ally of US and further cooperation in the future.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his bid to transform the otherwise lackadaisical approach of India’s Defense Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs) and Defense Research and Development Organizations (DRDOs), as well as Private Companies envisioned a progressive approach strongly backed by a strategy built on the ethos of credibility and immediate deliverables, job creation, thus adding strength to India’s indigenous defence industry under his mission “Make in India”.

Marred by project delays and issues of Request for Information (RFI), Request for Proposals (RFP) and Transfer of Technology (ToT), licensing issues with Russia, United States, India’s defense sector is currently undergoing massive transformation, a natural corollary to Modi’s frequent visits to other countries and subsequent discussions with his counterparts on defense and security.

The revised Defense Procurement Policy is also being projected as the game changer. However, financial, political and strategic investments in projects meant to modernize India’s defense industry exhibit a very uneven path. Whether it is the MMRCA, Tejas or AWACS statistics reveal that India is yet to achieve a great breakthrough in defense, compared to China or Pakistan as in the case of AWACS.

The Cabinet Committee on Security has time and again sanctioned several projects, but uneven investments have often defeated the very purpose of rapid military transformations, to tackle new asymmetrical threats. If statistics provided by the defense ministry are to be believed, India has signed five deals of more than Rs 2,500 crore since May 2014.

Projects for Tactical Communication Systems (TCS), Futuristic Infantry Combat Vehicle (FICV) (worth $ 7.5 billion) for the Indian Army, construction of seven Shivalik class frigates (Project 17 A) for the Navy, by Mazagon Docs Limited and Garden Reach Steel Industry, amounting to Rs 45201 crores are currently under consideration. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is currently in the process of building basic trainer aircraft HTT 40 and Sukhoi MK 1 aircraft in line with the 272 target set for 2018 by the Indian Air Force. There are several such deals being planned. But deadlock over Rafale continues to make headlines.

Meanwhile, reacting to the commercial deadlock over Rafale prices with Dassault, other players such as Lockheed Martin (F 16), Saab (Gripen) are now streamlining their business strategy, to meet the requirements of the Indian industry under Make in India. Saab is willing to partner with Indian companies, giving India complete software control to build the Gripen fighter in India. Saab is also keen on setting up an aeronautic training academy in India.

For a strong indigenous defense industry both outside support and internal political commitments are very crucial. Integral to any development program, is the need to provide a conducive socio-economic and political environment where any proposed idea can take roots. The liberalization of the FDI Policy in Defense, which shifted the fulcrum of indigenization from ‘state of the art technology’ to ‘modern technology’ was indeed a welcome change. The buzz word, Indigenously Designed, Developed and Manufactured’ (IDDM) now stands at 30:70, (Imports 30%) focus remaining on indigenization. The FDI policy was revised to fill critical gaps in technology aiding job creation and growth if Indian industry.

Despite the very obvious reports on project delays, falling production targets in the case of the Ordnance Factories, and sudden inflow of private players such as Reliance and Mahindra for example in the defense arena, ‘Make in India’ is a progressive move aimed to strengthen India’s defense industry.

However, there is no systematic explanation for India’s dialogues with Russia and the US over defense procurements and projects. The very crucial aspect of Transfer of Technology (ToT) especially nuclear propulsion (for example, in the case of nuclear super-carrier) has often caused unnecessary delays in signing of agreements between Original Equipment Makers (OEM’s) and India. Offset policy (2012) allows Joint ventures through the non-equity route.

Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar recently stated that the real impact of Make in India will be seen in 2017. Parrikar stressed on the need to outsource certain products in order to maintain a healthy production chain. So the question remains: Can private players deliver better? Is the budget enough to meet the requirements of Make in India? Will the dynamics of a Russia- US power play (add China for good measure), affect India’s position as a strong defence power in South Asia and subsequently on the global stage?

It was in 2001 when private players first entered the defense domain, with a 26% FDI bid. But terms and conditions laid out by the government were so stringent, that deliverables were far from being met. Technical education lagged behind affecting human resource availability.

One very important aspect of defense modernization is the ongoing Research and Development (R&D) in the field of security that has been crafted to meet the requirements of the modern day battlefield. Advancement in information technology and the changing nature of threats, whether man-made or accidental, on land, sea, air and even the virtual space now coerces one to assess the outcomes of procurements, acquisitions and mergers, in defense manufacturing sector.

The pace with which technology is becoming obsolete is a real problem. Defense preparedness calls not just for military modernization but also reforms, which are capable of accelerating the R& D processes in the field of security.

Moreover, it should be kept in mind that no one player or OEM can fully manufacture critical equipment. Several components are now procured from various producers, making the procurement procedure lengthy and complicated. These can cause unnecessary delays too. Another point of view currently attracting a lot of attention is that opening the doors of the security sector to foreign players will jeopardize India’s position as a strong defense power.

That foreign players are still not fully convinced with the idea of ‘Make in India’ especially shifting their production bases to India, a market which has inherent haphazard supply chain structures, is a different question altogether.

Lastly, more than flooding the market with success stories, the focus should be on the needs of the defense forces and on the operational efficacy of equipment manufactured under Make in India. Positive market trends have indeed widened the horizons of defense manufacturing in India but India still needs a little more political and financial push to achieve a higher degree of self-reliance in defense technology.

China Eyes Nuclear Project In Bulgaria

0
0

By Georgi Gotev

(EurActiv) — A delegation from the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), the country’s largest state energy company, visited Sofia and met with Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, to possibly resuscitate a shelved nuclear power plant project.

The Belene nuclear power plant, situated near the Danube, was frozen in 2012, reportedly due to a lack of funds.

Borissov, who cancelled Belene, recently said that this project, as well as Bulgaria’s role in the South Stream gas pipeline project, was put off as a result of pressure from Brussels.

Borissov, who leads the centre-right GERB party, recently resigned following the victory of Rumen Radev, a Socialist-backed candidate, at the 13 November presidential election run-off. His resignation provoked a government crisis. But Borissov is still prime minister, pending the appointment of a transition cabinet, which will be in charge until early general elections are held.

Russia’s Atomstroyexport took Bulgaria to court over the cancelled nuclear power plant. The International Court of Arbitration at the International Chamber of Commerce in Geneva has recently ruled in favour of the Russian company. Atomstroyexport will receive €620 million in compensation from Bulgaria, a huge sum for the impoverished country.

CNNC is, in fact, the second Chinese firm to express interest in the construction of the Belene plant. Previously, interest in the project was officially declared by the China General Nuclear Corporation (CGN) and another Chinese company – SNPTC, who are reported to have expressed interest in building a seventh reactor at the Kozloduy nuclear power plant.

According to the Bulgarian weekly Capital, Borissov told the CNNC delegation that Belene could be built on a commercial basis, without government investment. The Chinese corporation is reported to have confirmed its readiness to participate in the project under such conditions.

But before the CNNC could proceed, Bulgaria’s National Electricity Company (NEK) must pay the Russian Atomstroyexport the €620 amount, according to a court decision. This would allow NEK to acquire property for the equipment made for the frozen nuclear power project, which includes the body of a reactor.

“This will allow the separation of the assets in the project company and the announcement of the privatisation procedure,” the Bulgarian government said.

Critics of the Belene project in Bulgaria say it is unlikely to be bankable, because the country already produces more electricity than it needs, and the region may not need to purchase electricity from Bulgaria.

Scientists Reconstruct Face Of St. Nicholas

0
0

Scientists at a university in Liverpool recently unveiled what they say is the most realistic portrait ever created of St. Nicholas of Myra, the popular 4th Century bishop best known as the inspiration for the modern-day figure of Santa Claus.

Researchers at Liverpool John Moores University’s Face Lab used a facial reconstruction system and 3D interactive technology to create the portrait, which was unveiled on Dec. 6, the feast day of St. Nicholas.

University Professor Caroline Wilkinson said the reconstruction relied on “all the skeletal and historical material” available, the BBC reports. A university spokeswoman said the new image uses “the most up-to-date anatomical standards, Turkish tissue depth data and CGI techniques.”

Among the features depicted in the saint’s image is a broken nose, which Wilkinson said had “healed asymmetrically, giving him a characteristic nose and rugged facial appearance.”

St. Nicholas lived 270-343 A.D. He was the bishop of Myra, in southern Turkey.

During his years as bishop, he was imprisoned during the Diocletian persecution, then later released when Constantine came to power.

He was known for his staunch defense of the faith, as well as his often anonymous generosity toward those in need.

Stories surrounding the saint abound. He is believed to have once rescued three sisters from being sold into slavery by throwing bags of gold through an open window into their house to pay their family’s debts.

Another popular story holds that he became so enraged by the heretic Arius – who claimed that Christ was not truly God – that he punched him during a heated debate at the Council of Nicea in 325 A.D.

Based on the broken nose in the saint’s facial reconstruction, maybe Arius punched him back.

Hooray For The Russian Hackers, Boo To The Kremlin – OpEd

0
0

“When life gives you lemons, make lemonade” is a proverbial expression about turning adversity into advantage. This is a strategy the Kremlin seems ignorant of, based on how the Russian hacker scandal is being handled.

Any Kremlin insider who doesn’t have a sour taste in his mouth over the hacking story must have muted taste buds. The story is getting headlines in the United States. Any American who’s paid any attention to this mainstream coverage is being deceived. Already-prevalent negative beliefs about Russia and Putin are being reinforced.

And how has the Kremlin responded to this avalanche of negativity? When questioned about the hack attacks Putin simply replied that he had no knowledge of the plot. I heard that he commented at the Valdai Club: “Does anyone seriously imagine that Russia can somehow influence the American people’s choice?”

Well, duh. Yes! The news stream is indeed full of that anti-Putin claptrap about Russia’s illicit influence. Passive and gullible American media consumers are being taken in by this fake news right now as I write this.

This is one big lemon of a story that stands in the way of promoting a more accurate and positive world image for Russia.

What has Putin’s inner circle done to turn this lemon into lemonade? In a word, “nothing,” at least in terms of anything that has had a positive impact.

In the past I’ve been involved in several initiatives to advance propositions to Russia’s upper leadership. My anecdotal experience is that the farther away from Putin’s inner circle a decision is made, the more sensible and responsive to reality it will be.

The palace guard seems to treat sensible input with an air of not-invented-here disdain and rejection.

In 2013 I saw a quite persuasive plan to negate all the denigration and fear mongering that was preceding the Sochi Olympics. The plan was delivered to an inner-circle member by a distinguished and Kremlin-friendly business leader. He came back saying, “Boy, I’ll never try anything like that again.” He felt like he had just been kicked in the teeth over an honest attempt to offer vitally needed assistance.

On another occasion I saw good advice gain approval at the ministerial level, only with much of it going down in flames when it reached the Kremlin.

Who’s to blame for this kind of insular attitude and failure to put forth an effective strategy for handling issues of international reputation?

I’d start by pointing the finger at Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s press secretary. He has been exercising responsibility far beyond that of a mere spokesperson. This guy’s had a chance to turn around stories such as Putin’s bombing Russian apartment buildings, murdering Alexander Litvinenko, and invading Georgia.

How has Peskov responded to these and other challenges? He’s taken the yellow lemons that have been tossed at Putin and turned them brown. He’s been no help. It’s high time for Peskov to be shown the door. Maybe he can stay on just as a presidential spokesperson, delivering messages that someone with strategic brains hands him. But in his present role he’s doing far more harm than good.

In the instant situation, the Russian hacking scandal, there is a straightforward solution that doesn’t seem to even have occurred to the Kremlin.

To understand it, one must take a step back from the near-hysterical US headlines about Russia’s interfering in the American presidential election.

Just suppose the allegations are true. So what? What damage has been done? If you cut away the spin, what do you have left? It’s the nefarious inner workings of the Democratic National Committee and the Hillary Clinton campaign.

Wasn’t that revelation a service to the democratic process? Responsible citizenship in a democracy requires an informed and vigilant electorate. The leaked emails, no matter who may or may not have played a role in their delivery, informed voters of some things they should have known about.

But is all that really the main news story here? I think not. And it reminds me of the situation that emerged in the 2006 Alexander Litvinenko death case.

There wasn’t much remarkable about a generally-unknown nobody like Litvinenko dying, even of an unorthodox poison. Yet his death became one of the biggest news stories of its time.

When a journalist is sent out to cover news, one of the first things he or she is supposed to ask is “what’s the story here?” In other words what is newsworthy. It surely was not the death of some obscure character like Litvinenko.

Several months after Litvinenko’s death I presented a peer reviewed report at the World Congress of the International Federation of Journalists. It showed that the basic allegation of Putin’s culpability was a sheer fabrication advanced by a political enemy of Putin’s.

In concluding my presentation I posed the question, “what’s the story here? My answer: the “story” is the story. More remarkable than Litvinenko’s death is the matter of why it became such a big worldwide news item. It had no factual basis.

Similarly, in the Russian hacking scandal I think the same thing applies. The “story” is the story. But no one is covering it.

It’s no secret that major countries covertly engage in information gathering about the inside workings of other countries. One scandal had Israel going after American secrets. Then there were American hacks of foreign leaders’ telephone conversations. Just to mention a few.

And as far as one country trying to influence the politics of another? Check out what the US has been doing around the world for years.

We’ve promoted the forcible removal of heads of state, propped up militant opposition actors, and even staged an invasion to take territory away from Serbia. So even if the allegations of Russia’s intent to influence a US election were proved to be true, it would pale in comparison.

However, there is a greater point here. I believe that we’ve been seeing an organized attempt to delegitimize Trump’s election. The Clinton camp seems to be angling for a legal coup in the vote of the Electoral College on December 19. That’s what the hacking scandal betrays on close examination.

Previously I warned of this and how Putin is playing into the hands of the Clintonites with the positive comments he’s made about Trump. I wrote an article titled “Someone Should Tell Putin to Shut Up about Trump Lest He Prompt an Upset When the Electoral College Votes” (http://bit.ly/2fmaZ6k). It drew a lot of negative reaction in some quarters, even ad hominem attacks.

But this scheme to negate Trump’s election is the real story here. That’s what the Kremlin should be pushing in a credible way.

Putin’s mere denial of allegations of hacking complicity is a waste of time. He should just be silent himself.

A credible and substantiatable case can be made of an ongoing attempt to unseat Trump.

It may be highly unlikely the attempt will succeed. Nonetheless the clue that it’s being attempted should be the big news here.


The Rohingya: Children Of A ‘Lesser’ God – OpEd

0
0

On Saturday, December 10, 2016, the Guardian ran a story on two Rohingya women, Noor Ayesha and Sayeda Khatun.

Noor Ayesha held her last surviving daughter tight as their boat crossed into Bangladeshi waters. She left behind a firebombed home, a dead husband, seven slain children and the soldiers who raped her,” wrote the Guardian.

“A group of about 20 of them appeared in front of my house,” the 40-year-old Rohingya woman recalled of the morning in mid-October when her village was invaded by hundreds of Burmese government troops. “They ordered all of us to come out in the courtyard. They separated five of our children and forced them into one of our rooms and put on the latch from outside. Then they fired a ‘gun-bomb’ on that room and set it on fire. Five of my children were burnt to death by the soldiers. They killed my two daughters after raping them. They also killed my husband and raped me.”

Sayeda Khatun was more than five months pregnant, but said that did not deter the soldiers who arrived at her house in the village around noon on October 11. “They carried me at gunpoint to a large courtyard in the village where they had gathered around 30 other Rohingya women,” the 32-year-old said. “From among us the soldiers separated around 15 younger ‘good-looking’ women and took them away to an unknown place. I was in the group of about 15 older women who were raped in that courtyard by the soldiers. Fearing that they would shoot and kill us, all of us took off our clothing as the soldiers ordered.”

She considers herself lucky: she lost no family members and eventually found a way to escape to Cox’s Bazar (in southern tip of Bangladesh) with her husband, Oli Mohammad. But the violence has fractured their relationship, Mohammad believing the men who raped Khatun are also her baby’s fathers, “at least partly”.

Noor Hossain, a resident of a neighboring village, Ngasaku, told the Guardian by phone that the Burmese soldiers had arrived in Kyet Yoe Pyin on October 11 accompanied by Buddhist settlers known as Natala.

More than half the Rohingya community’s 850 houses were razed over the next two days and soldiers killed at least 265 people, he claims. “At least 100 women were raped and 25 of them were killed during the attack in Karyiprang. At least 40 Rohingyas were burnt alive in the village. Apart from killing people with gunshots and burning them, the soldiers also slaughtered many with knife. They also took away about 150 Rohingya men who have not returned as yet,” Hossain said.

The accounts of Ayesha, Sayeda and Noor are three of several such eye-witness reports of extra-judicial crimes in Suu Kyi’s Myanmar government that is committing genocide and is using rape as a weapon of war against the Rohingyas of Arakan (Rakhine) state, bordering Bangladesh. As a result of the latest pogroms since October 9, at least another 30,000 Rohingyas are now internally displaced. [According to UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) data, as many as 500,000 Rohingya are already internally displaced.] Rohingya males – old and young – are shot on site, while women – young and old – are raped by the Myanmar military to terrorize the community. To finish the job, the military is burning homes and villages.

Human Rights Watch has analyzed satellite imagery that shows more than 1,250 buildings in northern Rakhine state that have been destroyed, mostly by arson attacks.

At a rally in Kuala Lumpur last weekend, Malaysia’s prime minister, Najib Razak, likened the persecution of Rohingyas in Myanmar to a genocide.

Penny Green, a professor of law at the University of London, led a 12-month investigation into the Burmese military’s campaign against the Rohingya and concluded that the military was “engaged in a genocidal process” against the minority group. “It’s important to understand genocide as a process which may evolve over many years, beginning with the stigmatization of the target community and moving into physical violence, forced isolation, systematic weakening and finally mass annihilation,” she said.

For four years now the Rohingya have suffered state-sponsored denial of access to healthcare, livelihood, food and civic life as well as debilitating restrictions on their freedom of movement.

And now, since 9 October this year, the Rohingya in northern Rakhine state are facing a terrifying new phase in the genocide: mass killings, rapes, village clearings and the razing of whole communities, committed with impunity by the Myanmar military and security forces,” she said.

Many Rohingyas are finding it very difficult to trust Myanmar government for their safety and security and, in utter despair, are trying to flee to Bangladesh where they face push-back from Bangladesh Navy and the Border Guard (BGB). [As I write this essay, another 166 Rohingyas have been pushed back by the BGB.] Hundreds of Rohingyas have also been detained on both sides in the last two months attempting to illegally travel across the Naf River, which separates Myanmar and Bangladesh. And yet, some 22,000 Rohingya refugees have managed to pour into Cox’s Bazar. Every week, thousands continue to make the journey in spite of such obstacles.

Suu Kyi’s government is still in denial of such gruesome crimes of her military (Tatmadaw), and has not allowed international media and aid agencies to visit the northern Rakhine state to either verify the charges against the military or provide humanitarian aid to the Rohingyas.

The Kofi Annan commission is proving to be jawless. The former UN Secretary General was recently permitted to visit the Rakhine (Arakan) state for the first time since the crisis erupted. He was greeted by Buddhist protesters holding signs reading “Ban the Kofi Annan commission”. [Obviously, they are opposed to any investigation of the Buddhist crimes against the Rohingya minority.] Mr. Annan interviewed villagers in Kyet Yoe Pyin on December 3. He told a press conference in Yangon on Tuesday (December 6) that his committee was deeply concerned by reports of “human rights abuses” in the Rakhine state and urged Burmese security forces to act within the law. [Obviously, Mr. Annan needs a History 101 lesson on Tatmadaw that has perfected the art of committing war crimes under the pretext of securing law and order in this apartheid country.]

The Myanmar government does not want the international community to learn of its genocidal crimes, and, thus, those interviewed by Mr. Annan were later arrested by security forces. The move was meant to discourage Rohingya victims to speak out. Worse yet, Burmese soldiers resumed operations in Rohingya villages two days after Annan’s visit, and at least 50 women were raped and four killed in last week in the village of Kyauk Chaung in northern Arakan.

As part of another very calculated ploy to deflect international backlash, Suu Kyi has recently formed a 13-member commission, which, not surprisingly, again, in this den of hatred and intolerance included no Muslim and is led by Vice President Myint Swe, a retired army general, formerly blacklisted by the United States. The commission is created with the sole purpose of parroting government propaganda. Phil Robertson, deputy director of Human Rights Watch in Asia, said the new commission “doesn’t look like it’s independent or impartial”.

According to the UNHCR data, since 2014 an estimated 94,000 asylum seekers have fled to neighboring countries by means of deadly sea journeys. The commonly preferred destination is Malaysia, which hosts approximately 142,000 people. Indonesia currently has approximately 1,000 Rohingya refugees, excluding unregistered asylum seekers, mainly based in Aceh.

The Rohingyas need unpretentious international help, esp. from the ASEAN countries and Bangladesh. The push-back, a familiar tactic employed by Bangladesh government, simply cannot be an option. It is both criminal and morally repugnant, let alone being inexcusable for a country that had witnessed ten million of its own people become refugees in neighboring India during the liberation war of 1971. The push-back policy blemishes the spirit of liberation!

The Bali Process, an international high-level forum on people smuggling, human trafficking and related transnational crimes, which aims to push for more practical arrangements including the implementation of burden-sharing and collective-responsibility principles, however, has proven to be a failure because of its non-binding nature and no consequences for non-adherence. Bangladesh, for instance, has failed to uphold its commitment made during the 2016 Bali Declaration.

It is clear that Bangladesh and ASEAN member states have miserably failed to sober Myanmar – their rogue neighbor. If the current crisis lingers without restoring Rohingya rights, all these countries should be prepared to receive more Rohingya refugees and provide protection and necessary humanitarian assistance to them.

As noted by Shaffira Gayatri of the Asia Pacific Refugee Rights Network (APRRN), there is no existing legal framework in ASEAN to deal with refugees and forced migration. [In the Southeast Asian region, only the Philippines, Cambodia and Timor Leste (East Timor) are signatories to the 1951 Refugee Convention.] ASEAN has preferred to focus on its economic functions, while turning a blind eye to more pressing political and human rights issue like the Rohingya crisis. This morally indefensible non-interference principle needs serious reevaluation. Ms. Gayatri opines that “ASEAN has to step up pressure on the Myanmar government to stop the persecution of and discrimination against the Rohingya people through persistent diplomacy. A stronger diplomacy is also needed to allow and ensure the admission of humanitarian aid agencies into the Rohingya area.”

My personal opinion is that a pariah state like Myanmar cannot be sobered by carrots; i.e., its decades of criminal habits cannot be reformed by diplomacy, and surely not be rewarded with trades and investment. It needs sticks, biting sanctions and trials of its leadership in The Hague for its crimes against humanity. The decision to lift economic and other sanctions was simply premature and foolish.

In recent weeks, protesters across South and South-east Asia have turned out for demonstrations against the genocidal violence, particularly in Indonesia, Bangladesh and Malaysia. They demanded their governments to stand up for the Rohingyas who are running away from state-sponsored extermination campaigns, acting in the name of race and religion.

Sadly, the powerful western countries, busy with the rise of ultra-nationalist populist parties in their midst, seem least concerned with gross violations of human rights in apartheid Myanmar. They seem more interested in opening up business with the new regime, which has a Nobel Peace Prize winner as its de-facto leader, no matter how she had disgraced the award. Lost in that transaction is the fact that the situation of minorities like the Rohingya has simply worsened under her rule.

Recently, a cross-party group of 70 British parliamentarians have urged the UK government to “intensify pressure” on the Myanmar government to allow full humanitarian access to Rohingya Muslims in the North Rakhine State of Myanmar. “Together with the international community, the UK government must intensify its pressure on the Myanmar government to allow full humanitarian access to the Rohingya,” the British parliamentarians, including co-chair of the all-party parliamentary group for Burma Rushan Ara Ali (MP), said in a letter to British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson. They called on the British government to do all in its power to help those fleeing the violence to find a safe passage home. “We condemn any reprisal attacks that have followed the recent incidents of violence on the Myanmar border and call for an immediate end to the targeted use of violence of an already persecuted religious minority,” the parliamentarians wrote.

We need serious initiatives all across the globe urging governments and the UN Security Council to intensify pressure on Suu Kyi to stop war crimes of her Tatmadaw.

Truly, it is high time for the world community to demand a total halt to the on-going genocidal crimes of Suu Kyi’s government against the Rohingyas of Myanmar. Must the Rohingya people wander in the wilderness for two millennia and suffer repeated persecution, humiliation and genocide to qualify for our support for their existence? Do they need to be ‘children’ of a ‘higher’ God to qualify?

You Cannot Lead Indians As You Would Finns, Say Finnish Business Leaders

0
0

India is huge, lucrative, but also a very complex and challenging market. Finnish businesses are increasingly interested in operating in India, due to the large customer base and the high professional knowledge of partners and employees.

Nevertheless, many companies face huge challenges due to the cultural differences that dominate business in India. Things can easily go wrong in the Indian business environment and while dealing with Indians if cultural differences are not addressed well, according to a new doctoral study by Narashima Boopathi.

Doing business in India without having a deeper understanding of its culture is like swimming in the sea without knowing how to swim. India is a country of contrast and is highly pluralistic in terms of culture. Therefore, it is highly important for the business leaders from abroad, to possess a high Cultural intelligence Quotient (CQ) capability, in order to be successful in the Indian marketplace.

“The main aim of my research is to investigate how Cultural Intelligence Quotient (CQ) helps Finnish business leaders in an Indian business environment,” said Boopathi.

Cultural intelligence is a capability to work effectively in a culturally diverse setting that is different from one’s own. Boopathi interviewed Finnish business leaders from top management level, about their experience in India. The findings of the study revealed the differences between Finnish and Indian cultures, the challenges that are faced by the Finnish business leaders and the capabilities that are highly essential to work in the Indian environment business environment.

Cultural Intelligence is the key to do business in India

The most important finding of the dissertation identifies what particular skills and capabilities leaders must have and develop in order to be successful in India.

Experience, relationship and trust are the most crucial to be successful in India, said Boopathi. Building relationships and trust in any culture opens up the possibility to develop that deep sense, because only when local people invite you to their network can a person experience what they have been reading about. This is extremely important in an Indian context, where cultural plurality and complexity is so high. However, to establish a relationship, trust and to sense the experience in Indian business environment high level of cultural intelligence is very important.

The study points out that communication is the major difference and challenge faced by the Finnish leaders in an Indian environment. That is because the logic of communication in both nations is very different.

As Finnish leaders noticed: “Indians are very polite I think it is sometimes difficult for them to say “no” or “this is not possible. ”In Finland, the manager does the speaking. In India, the manager delegated the speaking to the subordinate”. Business leaders must understand the logic behind these communication patterns and this requires not only good cultural knowledge but also a high level of cultural intelligence as well.

“Employees should be micromanaged”

The key findings also demonstrate that it is not only important to have knowledge about India, but more importantly to have a deeper understanding (sense) about how certain things work within Indian culture.

For example, it is crucial for Finnish business leaders to understand how leadership style differs from their own. In Indian culture, leadership is based on paternalism and leaders are someone with ultimate power. Likewise, the employees should be micromanaged with frequent intervention often required when tasks are delegated.

In addition, hierarchy structures are stronger in India compared to Finland. If Finnish business leaders exhibited a similar leadership style as they would with Finns in India, it could lead to consequences including miscommunication, misunderstanding and numerous other issues. Therefore, Finnish business leaders should understand that Indians cannot be lead as they would lead Finns.

“I would say Finnish exports to India can be further boosted if only Finnish organizations and leaders pay a deeper attention to highly pluralistic Indian culture,” said Narashima Boopathi.

“It is important to understand that building a relationship in an Indian environment is the key to business success, as business always occurs between people where emotion drives the motion. So likewise, no matter how great the quality of product or service developed by a company, it becomes irrelevant if it is not adapted to the local conditions of the market in question. For example, McDonalds in India sells burgers without beef or pork because of religious sentiments. Therefore, when the Finnish organizations and leaders approach the Indian market in a culturally intelligent way, then they are able to offer culturally appropriate products and services that will lead to sustainable long-term business success.”

Squid And Chips Anyone?

0
0

Great Britian fish suppers could become more like those enjoyed in Spain and Portugal, according to data being presented at the British Ecological Society’s annual meeting in Liverpool this week.

Led by Dr John Pinnegar of Cefas (Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science), the research reveals that as UK waters warm due to climate change, cold water fish such as cod are gradually being replaced by warm water species like squid.

“Our models for 2025 and beyond suggest that seawater temperature may continue to rise in the future. As a result, UK waters will become more hospitable for some species and less suitable for others, with the overall result that most commercial species will move northwards,” he said.

Cefas has been monitoring North Sea fish populations for the past 114 years. Using detailed records of where fish are caught and of water temperature, Cefas has been able to detect long-term changes in abundance and relate them to climate change and fishing intensity – as well as predict what the North Sea might look like in future.

The data show that squid numbers have increased dramatically over the past 35 years. In 1984, Cefas found squid at only 20% of its 76 survey stations in the North Sea, compared with 60% in 2014.

But while squid is on the rise, cod numbers have been slow to recover after overfishing. From a total stock biomass of 1.3 million tonnes in 1971, cod numbers fell to their lowest recorded level of 124,000 tonnes in 2004.

Following strengthened management of cod fishing, biomass increased to 295,000 tonnes last year. Although this level is considered sustainable, scientists believe the slow recovery is because the warming waters of the North Sea in recent years have hit cod reproduction.

The results have important implications – for both UK fish suppers and the fishing industry.

According to Dr Pinnegar: “UK consumers enjoy eating quite a limited range of seafood, but in the long term we will need to adapt our diets. In 2025 and beyond, we may need to replace cod and other old favourites with warm-water species such as squid, mackerel, sardine and red mullet.”

Warming temperatures present both threats and opportunities to the fishing industry. For example, summer squid fisheries have expanded rapidly in the Moray Firth as efforts to reduce over-fishing have prevented vessels from pursuing more traditional species such as haddock and cod.

“I would anticipate that currently small-scale fisheries targeting warm-water species such as squid, sardine and anchovy will continue to expand. They will probably represent a greater share of UK fisheries catches in 10 years’ time,” he concluded.

Marrakech Film Festival Pays Tribute To Isabelle Adjani

0
0

On its penultimate night, the 16th Marrakech Film Festival paid tribute to acclaimed French actress Isabelle Adjani, the only person to have ever one five best actress prizes at France’s Cesar Awards. She has also been nominated for an Academy Award on two occasions, for François Truffaut’s “The Story of Adele H.” and Bruno Nuytten’s “Camille Claudel,” and twice won best actress at Cannes – for “Possession” and “Quartet”, Variety said.

Adjani was visibly moved by the tribute, in particular by a medley of scenes from her most famous films, including “Camille Claudel” and “Queen Margot.”

As she walked up the red carpet to enter the Palais de Congres, she was asked whether she leaves a bit of her soul in each film, to which she replied: “Of course, we give a bit of our soul in each part we play. But we hope to renew it with each new film.”

The tribute was presented by three directors, none of whom have worked directly with her – French director, Christophe Honoré, Romanian director Christian Mungiu and Mauritanian director Abderrahmane Sissako.

Mungiu served as jury member at Marrakech in 2014 and Sissako was president of the festival’s Cinecoles short film competition in the same year.

Honoré said that he is one of the main unfortunate directors who have never made a film with Adjani. “I started my career at exactly the same moment when you said you were less interested in acting.”

He said that he understood that once you have acted the same gestures on hundreds of occasions, it begins to make less sense, adding that some people, through their absence, are more present.

“You have always been watching over our films,” he concluded.

Mungiu explained that while growing up one day he saw a picture of Adjani that for him was the most beautiful image he had ever seen. He glued it in his room and later discovered who it was. “Your beauty is not just a question of a beautiful face,” he said. “You have unbelievable grace, class, talent, energy and subtlety. You are beautiful inside.”

He then explained that when he first had the opportunity to be presented to Adjani he declined the offer because he didn’t know what to say, and that the tribute ceremony was a second chance for him.

Sissako said that after he studied at the VGIK film school in Moscow, Adjani was one of the first people he met when he returned to Paris. He described her as a rare actress who has marked our existence, is charming with hidden aspects to her personality that are never accessible.

“You constantly reinvent yourself. You don’t chase after fame and recognition. You are the opposite of materialism,” Sissako proclaimed.

Adjani then took the stage and began by saying that “festivals, like films, are graceful monuments, poems that are fixed in our memories, built with living stones that we all are, as artists.”

Adjani emphasized her delight in being able to attend Marrakech as a crossroads of culture, “this place nourishes human encounters,” she said. “Many facets and forms of humanity meet here.”

She stated that she believes that in today’s world – with many forces of division and separation and a closing of boundaries, in terms of geography and sensibilities – Marrakech can play a special role because of its location and geography.

“This is a capital of the spirit and the heart, of free encounters and transmission, that can overcome the boundaries between North and South, between man and woman,” Adjani said.

Speaking about the montage of clips from her films she said that the montage moved her deeply, reminding her of the inspiration of working with so many directors and the chance to cross centuries and play culprit and victim, bitter and sweet, innocent and triumphant, “and so many times madly in love.”

“Even if I don’t like looking back, I carry these women inside me, these lives I’ve inside me, a major part of my life,” at which point she seemed on the verge of tears.

“Extreme sensitivity can be dangerous. It can destroy us. But that’s the price we have to pay. A great director is like an astronomer who finds a unique and secret light hidden in an actor’s face. He captures its hidden emotion, revealed in silence, shows intimacy while preserving the unique mystery of the character.”

Her speech was followed by a video testimony by French actress/director Maiwenn, who played alongside Adjani in Jean Becker’s “One Deadly Summer,” and who said that Adjani had inspired her to see the world in a different way and provided a “spiritual oasis” for her.

The tribute ended with a screening of Adjani’s most recent film “Carole Matthieu” by Louis-Julien Petit, which was released theatrically this week in France.

Link Found Between El Niño And Sri Lankan Dengue Epidemics

0
0

Researchers have discovered a strong association between El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions in the Pacific to observed weather and dengue epidemics in Sri Lanka.

The El Niño phenomenon is an irregularly occurring and complex series of climatic changes which has a number of important effects both across the Pacific region and throughout the world. These include the appearance of unusually warm, nutrient-poor water off northern Peru and Ecuador, typically in late December, the reversal of wind patterns across the Pacific, drought in Australasia, and unseasonal heavy rain in South America. Now researchers from the EU-funded DENGUETOOLS project have found that El Niño conditions in the Pacific precede exacerbated dengue epidemics six months later in Sri Lanka.

“Dengue is a major public health burden in Sri Lanka and the Kalutara district is one of the most affected areas,” commented Joacim Rocklov, co-author of the study and DENGUETOOLS researcher from the Unit for Epidemiology and Global Health at Umeå University. “So understanding how reoccurring weather patterns drive dengue is vital in controlling and preventing the disease spread.”

In the study, published recently in the ‘International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health’, the research team used the Oceanic Niño Index, which is a measure indicating El Niño activity by sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, along with local weather and epidemiological data in Sri Lanka to quantify data associations. Weekly weather variables and data on dengue notifications, gathered by Prasad Liyanage for the Sri Lankan Ministry of Health (an official DENGUETOOLS consortium member) between 2009 and 2013, were analyzed to estimate locally specific and overall relationships between weather and dengue.

Results indicated that there was an increasing risk of dengue with increasing rainfall starting at about 50 mm per week. The strongest association between rainfall and dengue was found around 6 to 10 weeks following rainfalls of more than 300 mm per week, which results in extremely wet conditions and a high chance of flooding. With increasing temperatures of 30 degrees Celsius or higher, the overall relative risk of dengue increased steadily starting from a lag of four weeks. Except for the period 2012–2013 during which a prolonged but flattened dengue epidemic was observed, all the other years displayed distinct annual seasonal peaks of dengue cases from May to September.

Being a tropical illness spread by mosquitoes, increased rainfall and discarded man-made receptacles scattered outside human habitats results in a proliferation of breeding grounds for mosquitoes. The availability of ample breeding sites leads to an increase in the number of mosquitoes. Warm temperatures also further augment dengue transmission dynamics by increasing survival and biting rates, as well as decreasing the extrinsic incubation period of the dengue virus in mosquitoes.

“Looking at weather and dengue incidents over longer periods, we found a similar strong link between how increased rainfall and warmer temperatures resulting from the reoccurring El Niño phenomenon are associated with elevated risks of dengue epidemics,” said Prasad Liyanage. “In the longer perspective, our data further confirms this association and suggests that dengue fever thrives whenever El Niño visits our island.”

By finding a link between El Niño and dengue prevelance, the DENGUETOOLS researchers have suggested that their findings can be used to improve predictive surveillance models with lead times of up to six months. This would give health officials more time to increase preparedness and mount control effort responses prior to the epidemics.

Source: Cordis, based on media reports and information from the project

Athletes In Individual Sports More Prone To Depression

0
0

Athletes in individual sports are more prone to developing depressive symptoms than athletes in team sports.

That is one of the findings being presented today, Monday 12 December 2016, to the annual conference of the British Psychological Society’s Division of Sport and Exercise Psychology in Cardiff by Professor Juergen Beckmann from the Technical University of Munich.

In his research on burnout and depression, Professor Beckmann and his team surveyed 162 elite and 199 junior elite athletes in two cross-sectional studies. They also conducted a longitudinal study of 85 junior athletes, surveying them three times over the course of a year.

These three studies were complemented by a qualitative study, in which 134 elite athletes were interviewed about perceived causes of their experienced stress, drop-out intentions and depressive symptoms.

The two cross-sectional studies found that sport-specific stress combined with insufficient time for recovery was associated with symptoms of depression. They also found that athletes in individual sports showed significantly higher scores for depressive symptoms than athletes in team sports.

The longitudinal study found that dysfunctional attitudes in athletes and a resigned coping style both predicted higher rates of depressive symptoms and burnout.

Although burnout and depression were significantly correlated, perfectionism and chronic stress predicted burnout but not depression. Depression was linked with a lack of time to recover from stress.

According to Professor Beckmann, “Our research suggests that depression is particularly high in young athletes, with athletes in individual sports being more vulnerable. In Germany, we have developed a burnout and screening instrument for junior athletes and a website to give them advice on coping with stress and other psychological problems they may experience.”

Kyrgyzstan: Imams Tasked With Battling Extremism

0
0

By Timur Toktonaliev*

A month ago, Kyrgyz imam Altynbek Shaidullaev took up his new position at a mosque on the outskirts of Bishkek.

The mosque, built seven years ago, is right next to Dordoi, a vast market that employs up to 20,000 people. Shaidullaev is extremely busy, teaching and conducting services for up to eight hours each day.

And getting the job was no easy matter, the 40-year-old told IWPR. He had to go through a series of checks and pass a certification exam set by the Spiritual Administration of Kyrgyz Muslims, also known as the muftiat.

These measures are part of new efforts to counter radicalism, seen as a growing problem in the Central Asian state. According to the National Security Committee, some 600 nationals have already left to fight in Syria and Iraq.

The muftiat exam focuses on assessing the imams’ depth of knowledge about their religion.

Shaidullaev said that the extreme views he sometimes encountered among his congregation were usually the result of ignorance.

“Ask a radical, when did he start praying, when did he get on this path? He would say, six months or one year at most. Was he able to learn Islam in six months?” Shaidullaev said. “That’s nonsense.”

“Words like ‘we will establish the caliphate or the Islamic State’ have nothing to do with reality. Anyone saying they’ll fix the country and fight corruption [that way] should first change themselves. Start with yourself,” he concluded.

FIGHTING EXTREMISM

Interest in religion has been growing in Kyrgystan ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

While nearly 90 per cent of Kyrgyz nationals identify as Muslim, religious practice is still a relatively new phenomenon and many ordinary citizens remain unaware of the exact difference between faith and extremism.

Experts say that this makes citizens particularly vulnerable to radicalisation.

In the last three years, Kyrgyz authorities have begun working with the Muslim clergy to combat extremist propaganda.

According to the State Committee for Religious Affairs, 19 Muslim organisations operating in the country have been banned as extremist.

Last year, 132 people were convicted of extremism and terrorist offences, up from 116 in 2014, and 81 in 2013.

So far, the imams of half the country’s 2,600 mosques have passed the muftiat exam with the rest waiting to take the exam. Those who fail are not allowed to practice.

The interior ministry also uses networks of male and female informers to observe imams as they work and report back any concerns over extremism.

“We are trying to control the main mosques, the huge ones with many thousands of visitors,” said Emil Dzheenbekov, who works for the interior ministry and used to head the its anti-terrorism department.

“We cannot say that 100 per cent of imams are against radicalism,” he continued. “There are some [religious] leaders, imams that support extremist ideas of some kind. There have even been members of extremist organisations among imams.”

In November 2015, an imam was sentenced to 10 years in prison for inciting hatred and possession of banned literature.

The prosecution argued that Rashot Kamalov, imam of the Kara Suu mosque in souther Kyrgystan near the Uzbek border, had preached in favour of establishing the caliphate.

Several other imams from Osh and Batken regions have also been found guilty of spreading extremist and radical ideas.

Imams must also send monthly reports to their local muftiat office, detailing their sermons and giving feedback back on their congregations.

Ravshan azhy Eratov, the deputy mufti of Kyrgyzstan, said that every religious leader in the country was expected to devote half-a-dozen Friday sermons each year to explicitly preach against extremism.

“We explain what radicalism, extremism, terrorism and other dangerous ideas are,” he continued. “We also speak about tolerance… and Islam’s true ideas.”

REACHING OUT

Imams serve as community leaders and opinion-formers, especially in rural areas, meaning they have enormous potential to fight radicalisation.

But one challenge is that imams’ proficiency on social media tends to be low. This contrasts with that of potential extremist recruiters, for whom the internet is an important tool.

“The technological capacity of our imams is certainly behind that of the terrorist groups,” said Ikbalzhan Mirsayitov, an analyst working in the field of combating religious extremism in Kyrgyzstan.

He said that local religious leaders preferred face-or-face communication, adding, “Imams don’t have the sufficient technical means to counter violent, extremist ideology.”

There are some Kyrgyz preachers with a significant media presence.

Chubak azhy Zhalilov, 41, the former mufti of Kyrgyzstan and an imam at one of the largest mosques of Bishkek, has 24,000 followers on Facebook.

He also hosts a religious Q&A show on a national TV channel and is a major contributor to the most popular Muslim YouTube channel in Kyrgyzstan, Nasaat Media, which has 57,000 subscribers.

Zhalilov was at the centre of a controversy this June, when he clashed with parliamentarian Janar Akaev over a bill to extend lunch breaks for Muslim prayers.

The former mufti then claimed he wouldn’t pray or even shake hands with anyone who voted against the proposed legislation, including Akaev.

The bill never passed through parliament, but feelings rose so high that the president had to intervene and the Kyrgyz National Security Committee warned Zhalilov that he was inciting religious tensions.

“Communication skills… have a great impact,” said theologist Indira Arslanova Aslanova said. “It’s crucially important for an imam to able to speak compellingly and convincingly to catch people’s attention [in the mosques].”

Aslanova was part of a 2014 commission that audited the muftiat’s activities and provided recommendations to improve their effectiveness. Amongst their proposals were for members of the clergy to boost their communication skills.

“Recommendations were provided but haven’t been adopted by the muftiat,” Aslanova told IWPR.

She was also sceptical about the new exam process.

“The muftiat now takes the certification of imams more seriously [but] its efficiency remains to be seen, because the previous checks have led to nothing, they’ve been formal,” she said.

Aslanova said that she saw no correlation between a proper understanding of the principles of Islam – which is what the imams are tested on – and their willingness to fight extremism.

Mirsayitov agreed, arguing that it would be of greater benefit to ensure imams received a decent wage.

“Imams must be well paid. It’s a major incentive for them not to look for other sources of income [apart from working at a mosque],” he said.

Imams have no set income, relying often on part-time jobs as well as private donations for carrying out services such as weddings and funerals.

“Imams have to pretty much finance themselves. Some are engaged in farming; some are in retail. Being an imam [in Kyrgyzstan] mostly means public, volunteer work,” deputy mufti Eratov said.

Underpaid imams are less motivated to get truly involved with their community, making them less likely to be able to stop potential radicalisation.

In 2014, a monthly scholarship was established in Kyrgyzstan on behalf of the president-backed Yiman Foundation under which certified imams can draw a monthly sum of 5,000 soms (72 US dollars). So far, more than 1,000 are receiving the stipend.

But Shaidullaev still believes that understanding the true nature of Islam is the best protection against radicalisation.

“Knowledge and education are the most important things. If you’re not knowledgeable, you’re nobody,” he said. “Every conversation I have with my students starts from that point.”

*Timur Toktonaliev is IWPR’s editor in Kyrgyzstan.

This article was produced under two IWPR projects, Investigative Journalism to Promote Democratic Reform, funded by the European Union; and Strengthening Capacities, Bridging Divides in Central Asia, funded by the Foreign Ministry of Norway. This article was published at IWPR’s RCA 802


Responding To The Arrival Of Artificial Intelligence – Analysis

0
0

By Madhulika Srikumar*

The United States White House released a report (and an R&D plan) last month on preparing for a future where Artificial Intelligence (AI) would play an increasing role across critical sectors; the report addresses the current state of AI, its applications for public good and the public policy and regulatory questions that AI begets. The White House releases this report amid increasing optimism about the ability of Machine Learning, a subset of AI, to drastically improve peoples’ standards of living.

The progress of AI has been attributed to three main factors — the availability of Big Data from sources such as social media, e-commerce, government; improved machine learning approaches, algorithms and the increased capabilities of more powerful computers in processing this data. The White House report has triggered a debate in the United States on developing AI-based applications though it does not do much to address potential user — privacy and hacking concerns.

The document was developed by the National Science and Technology Council’s (NSTC) subcommittee on Machine Learning and AI which enjoyed representation from several federal departments and agencies such as the Departments of Education, Labour and Defense.  The NSTC Committee’s recommendations seem largely guided by the following principles:

  • That current policy should be directed towards Narrow AI ie. AI employed to perform specific tasks eg. self-driving vehicles, image recognition etc, and not on General AI where AI would display the cognitive capabilities of humans — think super-intelligent machines,
  • That AI’s economic effect in the short term will lie in automation of tasks leading to loss of some jobs while increasing the demand for other skills and jobs that can augment AI, and
  • That AI practitioners need to adopt interdisciplinary approaches to build ethical AI; further, fluency in data science will be crucial to participate in policy debates surrounding AI.

Existing institutions should adapt to arrival of AI

The report recognises that AI has potential applications in several crucial areas such as health, education, energy and environment and recommends that existing sector-specific regulations be adapted as necessary to account for effects of AI. For example, the regulation of autonomous vehicles in future must be carried out within the current structure of vehicle safety regulation.

Regulation, according to the report, will serve two main purposes: to protect the public from harm and ensure fairness in economic competition. The challenge of developing an extensive “training set” is identified — the need for federal actors to focus on gathering rich sets of data, consistent with consumer privacy, that can better inform policy making as technologies mature, is highlighted. Conceiving standards of information sharing that the private sector is comfortable with considering their intellectual property and competition concerns — will be a task for regulators. Other recommendations made on AI regulation include hiring technical expertise at the senior level, and fostering a federal workforce with more diverse perspectives, when setting policy for AI-enabled products.

Prioritise AI research and develop a skilled workforce

The NSTC Committee places a lot of emphasis on the important role that government has to play in the growth of AI through investment in R&D and development of a skilled, diverse workforce. The United States is currently the leader in AI R&D and the US Government is seeking to maintain this through a dedicated strategy directed at recognising areas of opportunity, coordinating R&D to maximise benefit and using AI in government to improve services. The Committee calls for building a “data-literate citizenry” by imparting AI education to school students to empower the next generation to participate in policy debates on AI in the future.

Make AI-based processes fair, accountable and safe

Realising that the purpose behind AI-based applications is to automate tasks and reduce human intervention; the Committee suggests that the rationale and ethics behind AI-based processes be made accountable to stakeholders. The processes must account for justice, fairness and safety and not allow for the developers’ biases to creep in, whether intentional or not. The report notes that data needs to be complete and unbiased to enable machine learning processes to glean just and fair outcomes. The Committee calls for AI practitioners to adapt best practices from other safety-critical industries like aircraft, power plants and vehicles and integrate AI methods with safety engineering.

Preparing for AI-enabled societies

The rest of the world would do good to heed the lessons from US’s approach to the future of AI. Governments have the option of waiting and watching — or they can be proactive and turn to investing in R&D in AI to find indigenous applications. An important takeaway from the US approach is for states to coordinate efforts across various government departments in developing a strategic plan to train researchers and discover uses for AI across sectors like education and criminal justice. States should try and move the focus away from using AI purely for consumer goods.

As for AI and its possible impact on jobs and the economy, while jobs will be lost to automation (even without AI playing a role) — future AI systems could on the contrary create new jobs where human-machine collaboration would be required. It is up to governments to monitor developments in AI as they occur, evolve methods to understand safety and fairness of AI applications and finally set standards and frameworks to regulate AI — in collaboration with industry and civil society.

The author is a fellow at ORF.

Robert Reich: Trump’s Creeping Tyranny – OpEd

0
0

On the evening of December 7, minutes after a local Indiana union leader, Chuck Jones, criticized Trump on CNN for falsely promising to keep Carrier jobs in the U.S., Trump tweeted, “Chuck Jones, who is President of United Steelworkers 1999, has done a terrible job representing workers. No wonder companies flee country!”

Since that tweet went out, Chuck Jones says “I’m getting threats and everything else from some of his supporters.”

A few days before, Boeing’s CEO Dennis Muilenberg was quoted in the Chicago Tribune gently chiding Trump for being against trade. Muilenberg noted that trade is essential to the U.S. economy, as reflected in the “large and growing percentage of our business” coming from international sales, including commercial jet orders from China.

Moments later, Trump tweeted: “Boeing is building a brand new 747 Air Force One for future presidents, but costs are out of control, more than $4 billion. Cancel order!”

Boeing shares immediately took a hit. As it turns out, Boeing doesn’t even have a $4 billion order to make Air Force One planes.

This has been Trump’s pattern. About a year ago, 18-year-old college student Lauren Batchelder stood up at a political forum in New Hampshire and told Donald Trump that she didn’t think he was “a friend to women.”

The next morning, Trump fired back on Twitter. He called Batchelder an “arrogant young woman” and accused her of being a “plant” from a rival campaign.

Almost immediately, Batchelder’s phone began receiving threatening messages. “I didn’t really know what anyone was going to do,” Batchelder told the Washington Post. “He was only going to tweet about it and that was it, but I didn’t really know what his supporters were going to do, and that to me was the scariest part.”

This is what happens when Trump targets a private citizen who publicly challenges him.

Trump doesn’t take kindly to anyone criticizing him – not journalists (whom he refers to as “dishonest,” “disgusting” and “scum” when they take him on), not corporate executives, not entertainers who satirize him, not local labor leaders, not a college student, no one.

The President-elect’s tendency to go after people who criticize him by sending false and provocative statements to his 17 million twitter followers (he had 5 million when he went after Lauren Batchelder) not only imperils these individuals.

It also poses a clear and present danger to our democracy.

Democracy depends on the freedom to criticize those in power without fear of retribution.

No President or President-elect in history has ever before publicly condemned individual citizens for criticizing him. That occurs in two-bit dictatorships intent on stamping out dissent.

No President or President-elect has ever before bypassed the media and spoken directly to large numbers of his followers in order to disparage individual citizens who criticize him. That occurred in the fascist rallies of the 1930s.

America came closest to this in the 1950s when Senator Joseph McCarthy wrecked the lives of thousands of American citizens whom he arbitrarily and carelessly claimed were communists.

McCarthy’s reign of terror ended when a single man asked him publicly, during the televised hearings McCarthy was conducting, “have you no decency, sir?” In that moment, Americans began to see McCarthy for the tyrant he was.

McCarthy’s assistant was Roy Cohn, an attorney who perfected the art of character assassination. Roy Cohn was also one of Donald J. Trump’s mentors.

Trump’s capricious use of power to denigrate and even endanger his critics must end. He is not yet our President. When he becomes so, he will have far greater power. Our freedom and our democracy could be gravely jeopardized.

We must join together to condemn these acts. Has Trump no decency?

Ron Paul: War On ‘Fake News’ Part Of War On Free Speech – OpEd

0
0

A major threat to liberty is the assault on the right to discuss political issues, seek out alternative information sources, and promote dissenting ideas and causes such as non-interventionism in foreign and domestic affairs. If this ongoing assault on free speech succeeds, then all of our liberties are endangered.

One of the most common assaults on the First Amendment is the attempt to force public policy organizations to disclose their donors. Regardless of the intent of these laws, the effect is to subject supporters of controversial causes to harassment, or worse. This harassment makes other potential donors afraid to support organizations opposing a popular war or defending the rights of an unpopular group.

Many free speech opponents support laws and regulations forbidding activist or educational organizations from distributing factual information regarding a candidate’s positions for several months before an election. The ban would apply to communications that do not endorse or oppose any candidate. These laws would result in the only sources of information on the candidate’s views being the campaigns and the media.

Recently the Federal Election Commission (FEC) rejected a proposal to add language exempting books, movies, and streaming videos from its regulations. The majority of FEC commissioners apparently believe they should have the power, for example, to ban Oliver Stone’s biography of Edward Snowden, since it was released two months before the election and features clips of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump discussing Snowden.

The latest, and potentially most dangerous, threat to the First Amendment is the war on “fake news.” Those leading the war are using a few “viral” Internet hoaxes to justify increased government regulation — and even outright censorship — of Internet news sites. Some popular websites, such as Facebook, are not waiting for the government to force them to crack down on fake news.

Those calling for bans on “fake news” are not just trying to censor easily-disproved Internet hoaxes. They are working to create a government-sanctioned “gatekeeper” (to use Hillary Clinton’s infamous phrase) with the power to censor any news or opinion displeasing to the political establishment. None of those wringing their hands over fake news have expressed any concern over the fake news stories that helped lead to the Iraq War. Those fake news stories led to the destabilizing of the Middle East, the rise of ISIS, and the deaths of millions.

The war on “fake news” has taken a chilling turn with efforts to label news and opinion sites of alternative news sources as peddlers of Russian propaganda. The main targets are critics of US interventionist foreign policy, proponents of a gold standard, critics of the US government’s skyrocketing debt, and even those working to end police militarization. All have been smeared as anti-American agents of Russia.

Just last week, Congress passed legislation creating a special committee, composed of key federal agencies, to counter foreign interference in US elections. There have also been calls for congressional investigations into Russian influence on the elections. Can anyone doubt that the goal of this is to discredit and silence those who question the mainstream media’s pro-welfare/warfare state propaganda?

The attempts to ban “fake news;” smear antiwar, anti-Federal Reserve, and other pro-liberty movements as Russian agents; and stop independent organizations from discussing a politician’s record before an election are all parts of an ongoing war on the First Amendment. All Americans, no matter their political persuasion, have a stake in defeating these efforts to limit free speech.

This article was published by RonPaul Institute.

New Report Says ‘Circular Economy’ Will Fetch India Billions – Analysis

0
0

By Devinder Kumar

As India takes a prominent place in the globalised economy, it can choose its development path, and look beyond a linear ‘take, make and dispose’ model of growth by embarking on a circular economy transformation, and thus create economic, environmental and social value for its businesses and population, says a new report.

All the more so because “in an interconnected world predicated largely on a linear economic model, India’s development faces resource challenges and negative externalities – yet this scenario is not inevitable, and many opportunities can be derived from adopting a value-preserving model”, says the report produced by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation in association with the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

The report is the first conducted into a developing country by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, which was set up by Ellen MacArthur, a world-famous British yachtswoman, in 2010. It was launched in New Delhi on 5 December 5, ahead of an international briefing scheduled for December 12 in Geneva.

According to the study, the circular economy is one that is restorative and regenerative by design, and could make more effective use of materials and energy in a digitally enabled model of development.

In particular, India could save $624 billion a year by 2050 if it adopts circular economy principles rather than following a conventional but more wasteful development path, declares the report.

The Ellen MacArthur Foundation, an economic research and innovation think tank, promotes the concept of a “circular economy”, which as it proclaims “is restorative and regenerative by design, and which aims to keep products, components and materials at their highest utility and value at all times”.

“Today’s linear ‘take, make, dispose’ economic model which relies on large quantities of cheap, easily accessible materials and energy, is increasingly challenged in the long term. A circular economy is an attractive and viable alternative that businesses are already exploring,” the Ellen MacArthur Foundation said.

According to the study, pilot projects have already shown these practices contributing towards cost savings of hundreds of millions dollars per year.

“Increasing circularity can help unlock efficiencies, opening up urgent investment opportunities and delivering environmental, economic and social gains,” Guillermo Valles, Director for International Trade in Goods, Services and Commodities, UNCTAD said.

“Lessons from this work in India serve as an important example for other developing countries seeking to meet both the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and commitments in the Paris Agreement,” he added.

India’s ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, Ajit Kumar, said: “India is earnestly working towards finding ways to improve the living standards of its citizens, compatible with its resources. Sectors such as mobility, agriculture and construction will play a crucial role in the future growth of India. The suggestions contained in the report are therefore, noteworthy and timely.”

Dame Ellen MacArthur, founder of the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, said: “This report builds on the Foundation’s previous analysis of the circular economy opportunity for Europe, by exploring for the first time the potential of applying the circular framework in a fast-growing market context.

“With its existing circular mindset and strong digital backbone, India can reap significant economic and societal benefits, embarking on a positive development path as it focuses on regenerative practices.”

The report says that better product design and innovative business models could generate cost savings and increase profits for businesses, in parallel with the shift to digitally enabled platforms for asset sharing, such as Zipcar (‘own the trip, not the car’) in which procuring services replaces owning goods.

A shift from selling cars to providing vehicles as a service could create new revenue streams for India’s car industry. Only about 2% of the Indian population currently owns a car, but the demand for mobility is increasing, the report says.

Using data from UNCTAD, the report estimates that India could save costs amounting 11% of its current GDP in 2030 and 30% of GDP in 2050 if proven circular approaches were adopted by the public and private sectors. Greenhouse gas emissions could be cut by 44%.

The report offers insights based on extensive desk research, expert interviews and expert input events in India with participants from businesses, government, universities, NGOs and other organisations. UNCTAD contributed to the report as a knowledge partner.

A high-level economic analysis has been carried out to show potential benefits of following a circular development path for the Indian economy, environment and citizens.

The research has developed detailed circular economy opportunities in three focus areas: cities and construction; food and agriculture; and mobility and vehicle manufacturing.

Obama, Trump And The Middle East – OpEd

0
0

Where the Middle East is concerned – as in so many areas of policy, both domestic and foreign – President Obama and President-Elect Trump are poles apart.

It is only slowly, but with growing clarity over the eight years of his presidency, that the political assumptions underlying Obama’s Middle East policy, and the strategic objectives shaped by them, have emerged.

Obama made no secret of the fact that he came into office feeling guilty about America’s strength and its political record, and that he believed much was wrong with his country.  His apology tour began on April 3, 2009 in Strasbourg. Throughout the nation’s existence, he said, “America has shown arrogance and been dismissive even derisive” of others.  If the power of the US could be reduced, he declared, then America would have the “moral authority” to bring murderous regimes such as Iran into the “community of nations”.  So, based on this reading of America’s past, some claim that he set about reducing the strength and authority of the US.

His mention of Iran at that early stage is significant.  A widely-held view among political analysts is that the “signature issue of Obama’s diplomacy”, as political scientist Amiel Ungar puts it, has been transforming US-Iranian relations.

Ungar traces this policy back to the 2006 Iraq Study Group headed by former US Secretary of State, James Baker, and former Democratic representative Lee Hamilton.  The great struggle of the time was against al-Qaeda, the Sunni Islamist terror organization that had been responsible for the 9/11 attacks, and was then totally disrupting American attempts to reconstruct Iraq.  Baker and Hamilton dreamed up the notion of fostering a working relationship between America and the two major Shia powers, Iran and Syria, and then to encourage them to fight al-Qaeda in pursuit of their own objectives, thus incidentally assisting America’s struggle.

Ungar believes that this recklessly flawed analysis is what has been behind Obama’s willingness to accommodate Iran on the political front, and to offer it major concessions on the nuclear issue. When the Obama administration came into office, its overt aim seemed to be to eliminate Iran’s potential to produce nuclear weapons. But, some political analysts now believe, it was in fact working to a different and secret agenda based on the Iraq Study Group’s recommendations.

During 2014 it emerged that in secret correspondence with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Obama actually attempted to engage Iran in the anti-Islamic State conflict.  In November the Wall Street Journal reported that Obama had written to Ayatollah Khamanei concerning the shared interest of the US and Iran in fighting IS militants.

“The October letter,” asserted the Wall Street Journal, “marked at least the fourth time Mr Obama has written Iran’s most powerful political and religious leader since taking office in 2009, and pledging to engage with Tehran’s Islamist government.”

By 2016 it had become clear that, in the process of facilitating Iran’s journey into the comity of nations, the Obama administration had boosted Iran’s efforts to extend its influence across the Middle East. In consequence the US had lost the confidence, and much of the respect, of its erstwhile allies such as Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Egypt, all of whom had good reason to regard Iran as their prime antagonist.

Did Obama’s placatory approach result in any softening of Iran’s visceral hatred of the “Great Satan”?  Not one jot. “The slogans ‘Death to Israel’ and ‘Death to America’, “ proclaimed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, just after the nuclear deal was announced, “have resounded throughout the country…. Even after this deal, our policy towards the arrogant US will not change.”

So much for the assumptions and vain hopes of the Iraq Study Group, and for the policy of appeasement. Taking every concession offered in the nuclear deal talks, and subsequently reneging in several vital respects on the final agreement, Iran’s leaders have not budged an inch on their ultimate ambitions, namely to become the dominant political and religious power in the Middle East, to sweep aside all Western-style democracies, and to impose their own Shi’ite version of Islam on the whole world.

Two months after his Strasbourg speech, Obama chose Cairo University as the venue from which to address the Muslim world. Once again self-flagellation was the order of the day. Based perhaps on the Muslim influences of his father’s family and his own childhood in Indonesia, he spoke of past “colonialism” and the cold-war use of Muslim nations as “proxies”. He recognised past “humiliation”, and spoke of future “dignity” and “justice”. In a long passage on Israel-Palestine, Obama spoke of “Palestine”, not a “future Palestinian state.”

Although he condemned Muslim antisemitism and Holocaust denial as “baseless … ignorant …hateful”, condemned the terrorist methods employed against Israel by Hamas, and urged the Muslim and Arab world to embrace democracy and women’s rights, he was, in effect, attempting to put the US-Muslim relationship on a new footing. His tragedy is that for the rest of his presidency he chose the wrong methods and the wrong partners for this bold enterprise. His reluctance to deploy effective military action when it was clearly demanded – as in Syria, when Assad indiscriminately deployed chemical weapons, regardless of the effect on his own civilian population – and his backing of Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood, both sworn enemies of what might be termed “the stable Sunni world”, undermined America’s standing to an unprecedented degree.

Into the power vacuum swept Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, eager to enhance his influence on the world stage, to regain the USSR’s clout in the Middle East, and to bolster Russia’s interests in Syria, a long-time ally.

US President-elect Trump, a great admirer of Putin, has no time for “reducing America’s power” (quite the reverse), or Iran, or the nuclear deal that was a keystone of Obama’s administration. Whether he can “tear it up”, in his own words, is debatable, but he can certainly ensure that the Iranian regime observes the terms of the agreement meticulously – negligence in this area is something the Obama administration has been criticised for.

Trump admires Putin, and hopes to forge a new understanding between the US and Russia. Putin admires Trump, and is highly unlikely to allow his working alliance with Iran to stand in the way of consolidating Russia’s new powerful position in the Middle East with the backing of the USA.

An old Chinese curse is said to run: “May you live in interesting times.” Curse or blessing, interesting times is what the future seems to hold in store.

Viewing all 73339 articles
Browse latest View live




Latest Images