There are deep flaws in the blogs, media reports, and official statements, which purport to describe world historic events and changes.

These so-called ‘up-to-date’ reports of major world events undergo repeated revisions in hours, days or weeks as the story is being ‘played out’. What might start out as a ’scoop’ for the upwardly mobile journalist is transformed into a by-word for a ‘critical blogger’ rewriting mainstream reports by simply substituting negatives for pluses (or vice versa).

‘Immediacy’ trumps historical context and structural understanding. Protagonist or antagonists of the moment are demonized , slandered and scandalized, or lauded , praised and iconized.

The practice of deep falsification involves magnifying transient trivia and glossing over world-historic change. The false prophets substitute superficiality for deep understanding.

Soon after proclaiming a ‘major systemic transformation’, which fail to occur, a series of modifications or reversals take over, and the initial ‘great prophesy’ is forgotten – as if the readers of news were afflicted with an epidemic of dementia.

Most political parties, left, right and center, have their own unchanging warped world view to frame everyday minutiae.

For example, on the Left, it is the ‘imminent collapse of capitalism’ or the ‘perpetual stagnation of the capitalist state’, ‘the collapse of democracy’ or ‘the emergence of fascism’. In the absence of any real empirical or historical findings to support their hypotheses, they add escape clauses about ‘tendencies’.

The Center has its own historic narrative, which includes ‘threats from the Left and Right’, and the ‘dangers posed by populists to democratic values’. They cite the overwhelming responsibility to ‘defend Western values’ everywhere, from threats, past, present and future…and especially from independent nations, like Russia, China, Venezuela, Iran and other ‘emerging’ powers, as a pretext to escalate militarism and to bolster support for vassal states.

The Center repeatedly point to the ‘resilience of Western liberal democratic institutions’ even as police state edicts are dictated to counter dissenting voices, while false prophets predict that China’s robust economy is on the verge of collapse; that democratic Russia is an unstable autocracy; and that the Ukraine is an emerging democracy – while its ‘Right Sector’ and ‘Azov Battalions’ runs amok amidst a kleptocratic, neo-fascist regime

The Right frames its world-historic ideology by stressing the need to (1) revive the Cold War to counter the US global decline; (2) confront the world-wide wave of ‘populism’ threatening ‘liberal’ democracies; (3) portray Brexit as a sign of the European Union’s collapse; (4) equate Trump’s victory with the rise of fascism in the US; (5) emphasize the ascent of bigotry, racism and anti-Semitism, based on the result of a single election ; (6) denounce Leftists ‘conspiracy’ writers who ‘falsely’ blame rising class inequalities to free-market monopolies; and (7) explain that cuts in social expenditures, tax cuts to big capital, increased work hours and decreased pensions are ultimately rewarding the masses.

These mega- narratives lead ‘prophetic academics’ to insist on their infallible insight into the future direction of the world economy, global politics and class relations.

False prophets maintain a veneer of authenticity, by presenting the future in unspecified, ambiguous, general and distant terms, to allow for any or all outcomes – like professional fortune tellers.

Academic and media prophets are enveloped in a mystique of expertise, which allows them to rehash yesterday’s news as deep strategic insights.

False Prophets: Trump

Contrary to the wailings of the Right, Center and Left, Donald Trump is not a fascist, or a nationalist or a populist. An objective assessment of his most recent policies and cabinet appointments show that he is a free-market politician with a propensity to appoint militarists to security positions.

Trump’s populist demagogy most closely resembles President Obama – although the appeal is to a different audience. Trump speaks to impoverished, displaced, skilled workers in the rust belt with campaign promises of a renaissance in manufacturing, upscale suburbanites, and downwardly mobile working women, while appointing billionaire bankers and global business executives to run the economy and set policy. Obama appealed to poor minorities, middle class urbanites and the same business elite.

Like Obama, Trump is an imperialist committed to protecting and projecting US global power. He differs from Obama in emphasis. Obama and his predecessors pursued a primarily military-driven imperialism while Trump will shift the emphasis to economic imperialism.

Trump’s ‘double discourse’, of talking to the masses during the campaign while working for the elite once in office, reflects a long-standing American Presidential tradition.

Editorial writers’ descriptions of Donald Trump lack historical and empirical depth.

Powerful systemic constraints define the rate and scope of any long-term, large-scale changes that Trump might propose. Trump can only introduce minor incremental changes in the behavior of the biggest banks and five hundred most powerful global multi-nationals. Trump might re-negotiate around the edges of some bilateral trade agreements, but he cannot convert the US into a closed self-sufficient economy.

Contrary to the ‘end of the world’ hysteria, promoted by the mass media, Trump has never made any pact with white racists and anti-Semites. There are no major Jewish organizations currently engaged in a struggle against Trump’s ‘fascist hordes’. The KKK is not preparing to burn Goldman Sachs. Since Trump’s election the stock market has jump over a thousand points. Like all of his predecessors from both parties, Trump appointed prominent Jews to key economic and policy positions, including Treasury Secretary. Many editorialists, who rely on selected excerpts of campaign rhetoric and gossip, have presented an unrealistic picture of the trajectory of the US state and economy.

False Prophets: China

The US prophets and self-described ‘experts’ describe China in inflated terms of either its impending doom or its relentless drive toward world supremacy. They rely on the minutiae of the moment or distorted extrapolations, uncertainties and contingent systemic changes. Rigorous analytical accounts are in short supply.

China, according to the free-market financial prophets of doom, suffers from a declining growth rate, shrinking work force, massive capital flight, deep-seated corruption and an impending intra-elite war. According to the prophets of doom, this sets the stage for an economic collapse and a military confrontation with the US empire.

Many of these pronouncements are easily dismissed. For the last 30 years, China’s economy has exceeded 6% and it is steadily developing its high technological work force and scientific innovations. China’s emphasis is on diversifying its production and consumption to domestic and overseas markets. The challenge of its aging work force is met by the increasing development of robotics and computerized productive systems.

China has applied capital controls and limits on capital flight. The national campaign against corruption and real estate speculation in real estate has led to the arrest of over 200,000 officials and executives for fraud, bribery and money laundering via overseas banks.

In other words, the false prophets, parading about as ‘China experts’, have consistently made nonsensical predictions of doom and collapse. Faced with factual refutations, they merely repeat and recycle their prophecies by projecting longer time frames, up to infinity, for the coming of the inevitable catastrophe.

On the other hand, some progressive writers peddle prophesies of China’s endless progress predicting its inevitable emergence as a supreme global power. They convert China’s 30-year pattern of economic growth into a formula guaranteeing ‘harmonious development’, which they claim is based on China’s correct handling of emerging challenges and contradictions. Their predictions of stable future growth assume ever-expanding markets while ignoring the threat of military confrontations with rival imperial powers.

China’s prophets of global power ignore contingencies: Skilled and innovative workers, who are necessary for economic growth, have their own vision of the social structure in which they play a leading role in advancing society.

While robots can substitute for human labor power, it is worker knowledge and initiative that design, produce and adjust the robotic manufacturing system.

Harmony, free markets and mutually beneficial trade alliances are relations that are always changing; only interests remain constant. As China moves from investing in commodities to manufacturing and technology, customers can turn into competitors.

As China emerges as a global power, the outflow of capital and arms and technology increases, and the risks of global rivalry and domestic instability, challenging the Chinese ruling class likewise increase.

Prophecies or predictions depend on (1) the stability of incremental changes in the structure of power; (2) the uncertainty of elite outcomes in world markets and (3) the volatility of domestic class relations.

False Prophets: Latin America

Latin America is almost universally regarded as unstable – a region, where revolutions and counter-revolutions alternate, and electoral regimes rise and fall among neo-liberal, populist and nationalist leaders.

The long-term reality is actually quite different. Latin America has been one of global capitalism’s most stable regions. With few exceptions, property-ownership has remained stable for decades, with entrenched oligarchical elite families enjoying wealth, multiple-luxury properties throughout the world and their own perpetuation.

Electoral regimes may frequently change but the underlying state structures endure for decades. Bureaucratic, military and financial institutions set the margins of change. Neo-liberal, post-neo-liberal and anti-neo-liberal policies come and go, but large-scale mining, export agricultural and banking structures ultimately set the conditions for the growth of economies and demise of governments.

There is a tendency for some academic prophets and writers to use metaphors from astronomy and geology to divide the world. They describe a ‘world-system’ composed of ‘a core, a semi-periphery and a periphery’. Adding and subtracting, multiplying and dividing quantities of productive resources, the false prophets solemnly predict how the entire world system will function ‘ad infinitum’.

While data, derived from observations in space, provide scientists with insights into the movements of distant galaxies and the fate of planets, extrapolation to socio-economic and political ‘bodies’ is risky.

On the real planet Earth, the so-called ‘periphery’ of the ‘world system’ subsumes countries, economies, social structures, states and inter-state relations with entirely distinct composition, behavior and histories. Cuba, a ‘peripheral state’, differs in every respect from Haiti, Guatemala and scores of other likewise categorized nations. And among the ‘core’ countries, the US invades, occupies and plunders dozens of countries every decade, while China engages in ‘trade’. Iran, among the ’semi-peripherals’, has not invaded any neighbor for two centuries, while Israel, a fellow ’semi-peripheral’, has ravaged a dozen countries in the past 50 years.

False Prophets: Russia

Western prophets on the right and left predicted that the break-up of the USSR would augur a period of harmony, democracy and widespread prosperity. The true believers claimed ‘anything was better than Stalinism’ while ignoring the fact that Stalin was dead for a half-century.

Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev oversaw the transformation of the USSR’s allied nations into pillaged satellites of the Western imperial powers. He blindly accepted US Presidents Bush and Ronald Reagan’s promises that the US would not expand NATO and would not transform the newly emerging post-Soviet nations into military bases. What emerged was a crippled and encircled Russia, which had been converted into a Beggar-State of oligarchs and swindlers who seized over a trillion dollars of public property, wealth, land and resources in less than ten years. Gangsters murdered their way into public office through US-manipulated sham elections, celebrated by the Western press. Living standards for millions of post-Soviet citizens collapsed, resulting in the greatest decline of life expectancy, health, culture, science and education in peacetime history.

Contrary to the predictions of Western prophets Russia rebuilt its state and economy. The new political leadership, headed by Vladimir Putin, replaced the dipsomaniac puppet President and mobsters favored by Washington. Living and health standards have vastly improved; production, agriculture, exports, national security, science and culture have recovered.

The angry false prophets, then promoted a new pseudo-scientific assertion that the re-emergence of the Russian state and its recovering economy led inexorably to autocratic rule by a former KGB official, who violated ‘Western values’ by…. jailing swindler billionaires and self-made oil mobsters and re-appropriating vital national assets.

Western editorialists ceaselessly denounce the popularly elected President Putin for his crime…of refuting the bankruptcy of their prophecies.

Despite reams of reports by the ‘experts’, despite their wide circulation in the mass media and their citations by top Western officials, the Russian state and economy, just like the Chinese, are not on the verge of collapse nor are they declining or facing popular revolts.

False Prophets: The Left

The shallow, self-serving Left prophets of progressive governments in Latin America, as well as admirers of Putin’s Russia and Xi Jinping’s China, fail to recognize the structural, historical and class constraints that determine and limit policies.

First and foremost, they fail to recognize the socio-economic continuities within these states. In all three regions, elites and oligarchs continue to control the commanding heights of the economies, despite occasional expropriations and sporadic reforms.

Secondly, even the most ‘progressive’ regimes rely on Western markets and investors limiting their long-term growth.

Thirdly, the long-term dependence on extractive exports, global demand and fragile mono-culture economies weakens the long-term stability of Russia and Latin America.

The absence of a socialist democratic alternative to the brutal capitalist restoration in China undermines the optimistic perspective of progressive prophets.

Conclusion

The debate among experts, regarding the rise or decline of the Imperial West or the progressive forces in China, Russia and Latin America, fails to consider their ‘hidden resources and liabilities’. These include the untapped scientific discoveries, the failure to develop alternative resources and innovations, as well as the ongoing repression of skilled workers. The Western prophets underestimate how the reliance on the paper economy has squandered immense social and productive value.

The ongoing cultural deformations, perversions and falsifications of information and analysis at the behest of established power centers, has clouded any real understanding of everyday life and greatly reduced our chances for a future without barbaric wars and social exploitation.

Culture is an everyday phenomenon determining how economies and states, rulers and ruled see the world, exercise power or are forced to submit.

We have witnessed the spread of cultural squalor into language and life, with only an occasional respite, when people overcome their everyday stupor and create a momentary burst of creative political, economic, social and cultural energy, which can lead to transformations.

Humdrum incremental changes, left and right, and the reality of continuities, limit and ultimately reverse social reforms and corrupt language to serve the ruling powers. We must move forward against the flatulence of everyday life by rejecting the false prophets and by writing, speaking and acting against crackpot sages. Our progress toward a new order must be firmly rooted in our everyday struggles writ large.

There was a time in its history when Islam encouraged not only critical inquiry but also thinking, so that philosophy can become the guide to Islamic spirituality and fuel scientific discoveries leading to inventions and ideas that are precursors to the technologies of the mind and bodies we have now.

Such a time was the ‘golden age of Islam’ during the reign of Khalifah Harun AlRashid, in Baghdad. Today, Islam is dominated not only by those who chose to close the Muslim mind but also those who spend time dreaming of an ‘Islamic state ruled by an Al Mahdi/ the saviour’. Today’s Islam has been reduced to ritual, political bickering, and of course the devastation brought by the wealthiest terror group in history – IS or the Islamic State.

Muslims need to ask fundamental questions on the kind of Islam they wish to see and feel evolving. These are some:

Is not Islam first and foremost a religion of high cognition? 

Of thinking and feeling? 

Of questioning and philosophising? 

Of not bowing down to any human authority be it the sultan of your country or the grand imam or mufti of your the Holy City who at times speak nonsense and preys on human gullibility?

Is not Islam more a spiritual and critical world of inner sensibility than a doctrine of religious totalitarian belief system preying upon human weakness in order to impose perpetual sense of authority to strengthen the power of the state as a capitalist or even communist entity?

Is not Islam a private belief system of the self and not a public and policing system of theocracy?

‘Ritualistic and tantric Islam’

The emergence of ‘Islamic denominations’ in the forms of tariqats/pathways and the unique prayers and chanting rituals designed are a way to see Islam as a cognitively-shackling religion.

Bound by any cult or tariqat should Muslims not be, else their minds will be controlled by this or that sheikh and ayatollah and celebrity ulama and televangelists/TV-personality Muslims that will be idolised and next, religion becomes capitalised and commodified.

While the followers chant and zikir and dance the tantra aimlessly, these global and globe-trotting idolised religious leaders gets first class spiritual treatment while the followers think that they have seen a speck of the glimpse of the Divine.

Muslims living in this age of high cognition, new inventions, progressive individualism and the primacy of the idea that everything must fit in the scheme of the ‘Internet of Things’ must not allow religion to become the new ganja of the masses.

Religious preachers must come together to present this message in their weekly sermon/khutbah: Muslims, Think for yourself; your mind is the authority of things, you are the khalifah of your own kingdom. Forgive yourself through your own effort of self-evolution and not let others take over the job of helping you forgive yourself with the ultimate aim of controlling you.

‘Seeing the depth of Islam’

Muslims must be taught to see the depth of things and not to allow their minds to be controlled by those with damaging ideas of totalitarianism disguised as ‘true Islam’, Muslims of today seem to be attracted by the idea of an ‘Islamic state’ as a fulfillment of a ‘prophecy’ of peace on earth. This is how IS develops and how the cult of the ‘Imam Mahdi’ and the ‘waiting for the arrival of the Khaliah’ develops.

Little did the followers, including in Malaysia, knows that the Daesh/IS is an indirect ‘creation’ of the American Empire. The leaders of IS were once prisoners of the Bush family-led American Empire – this held captive in Iraq and cooked up a plan to organise themselves to establish the rulership of the ‘khalifah’ by appointing Abu Bakar Al Baghdadi as it first Imam Mahdi who will establish the ‘Islamic State’ of the post-Saddam Hussein era.

And in Malaysia, can the Malays trust any of the ‘Islamic’ parties any more? The endless in-fighting within the parties branding themselves as ‘Islamic’ and demanding the establishment of the ‘Islamic state’ has shown Malaysians how much these groups cannot be relied upon to work for a common goal of ethical change.

Supporters of the parties trusted to see a ‘pure Islamic state’ emerging are disillusioned by the announcements made by PAS to collaborate with its political enemy Umno, to mend the ‘split amongst the Malays’ and to form a unity government to ‘save the Muslims’ from their enemies who are out to seize power and deny the Malays their traditional control.

‘Tawhidic logic’

There is a spiritual logic long-forgotten, perhaps conceived as early as the invention of religious beliefs from the time of the civilisations of the Indus Valley and Mahenjo-Daro and Harappa. It is this – as many as there are living souls on this planet, that’s how many ways one can arrive at the knowledge of oneself, and if you may, of knowing ‘god’… there is therefore no one true way.

Each mind, inhabiting each soul, located in this universe is living, breathing, and believing Universe of microscopic sensibility itself. This is, for lack of a better Islamic term, the meaning of the principle of Tawhid or One-ness of the self, or the idea of Singularity amidst Multiplicity.

All religions with names existing today are merely universalist-spiritualist way of branding a worldview that is not brand-able. All religions of today are institutions that attempt to control the impossible – the mind and the ‘highly-personal-tawhidic-singularistic-unique’ universe of each living soul. An impossible force to be made possible – in the name of indoctrination.

Today’s religion continue to be an instrument of the domination of the state and its rulers – a crude exercise in mind control. Worse, it has become a profitable enterprise to capitalise on human gullibility and the art and science of ‘saving souls’ using cutting-edge guerrilla marketing strategies that ambush human souls and take human suffering as hostage.

Today is the ‘Age of the Closing of the Muslim mind’, Muslims themselves must engineer a paradigm shift to leave this age and to see through the ‘tawhidic-singularity of things’ a cognitive state of beingness that can bring back Islam out of its present Dark Age.

If one truly believes in American values, then one must also agree that Whistleblowers must be liberated, and freed immediately from earthly bondage, whether it be prison, home incarceration, vindictive prosecution/persecution by politically motivated government officials, disenfranchisement from voting or working, and all around pariah status in the United States, and in the rest of the world.

Not every individual who leaks or pilfers confidential information to reveal it to third parties can be considered a whistleblower, however.

A whistleblower has been defined as a person who exposes any kind of information or activity that is deemed illegal, unethical, or not correct within an organization that is either private or public.

The information of alleged wrongdoing can be classified in many ways: violation of company policy/rules, law, regulation, or threat to public interest/national security, as well as fraud, and corruption.

Those who become whistleblowers can choose to bring information or allegations to the surface either internally or externally.

Internally, a whistleblower can bring his/her accusations to the attention of other people within the accused organization (unfortunately retaliation by that organization is often standard practice and de rigeur).

Externally, a whistleblower can bring allegations to light by contacting a third party outside of an accused organization.

Whistleblowers can reach out to the media, government, law enforcement, or those who are concerned but also face stiff reprisal and retaliation from those who are accused or alleged of wrongdoing.

The Founding Fathers knew exactly the heroism and personal self-sacrifice of those who gave up their life, liberty and pursuit of happiness for the sake of freedom for all.

The progenitors of the Founding Fathers, ie, those that influenced and inspired them to forge a new nation, were also passionate whistleblowers who desperately tried to escape the yoke and slavery of Colonial British England, which is exactly who still controls the purse strings today, through the fiat power of the Bank of England and the other central banks located sporadically throughout the tiny City of London.

Thomas Paine in 1776 once said, “Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it.”

John Locke stated in 1689 that “Where-ever law ends, tyranny begins, if the law be transgressed to another’s harm; and whosoever in authority exceeds the power given him by the law, and makes use of the force he has under his command, to compass that upon the subject, which the law allows not, ceases in that to be a magistrate; and, acting without authority, may be opposed, as any other man, who by force invades the right of another. This is acknowledged in subordinate magistrates. He that hath authority to seize my person in the street, may be opposed as a thief and a robber, if he endeavours to break into my house to execute a writ, notwithstanding that I know he has such a warrant, and such a legal authority, as will impower him to arrest me abroad. And why this should not hold in the highest, as well as in the most inferior magistrate, I would gladly be informed.”

So it can be no secret that today’s crop of whistleblowers are at once much more similar to the courageous Founding Fathers (and their progenitors) than the bought off, paid for bankster whores that populate our Congress, Senate, Judiciary, and Executive Branch, especially since the resurgence in 1995 of COINTELPRO by the DOJ/FBI/DHS after its outlawing in 1975 by the Frank Church Hearings with the Bill Clinton/Joe Biden Community-Oriented Policing (“COPS”) program brought on the by the suspiciously contrived Oklahoma City Bombings, or the reinstatement of the CIA mass assassination/MKULTRA/propaganda program onslaught after the equally suspect events of 911.

Today’s whistleblowers sacrificed themselves, their freedoms, and their “life, liberty and pursuit of happiness” for the sake of their fellow American Citizen, if not fellow man, should be immediately liberated from bondage, and then lionized in history, as such.

The only test to determine if one qualifies for heroic whistleblower status is whether or not more people were affected positively than negatively.

If the calculus can be shown that their revelations operated to inform the American People about troubling programs, constitutional violations, and other mechanisms of corruption, then they should at once be liberated/freed/exonerated/lionized.

To be sure, not all leakers should be rescued from the earthly bondage of government retaliation, but a great many of the ones appearing in the modern news should be, because they have in fact ameliorated and improved the conditions and knowledge of their fellow citizenry, who have thereupon acted upon this knowledge to seek out change, by throwing their elected (and non-elected) tyrants out of power to face public/private scrutiny and investigation.

Whistleblower revelations have also illuminated brightly the money/paper trails of the corrupted relationships within the government, allowing for a tracking of the origin/roots of their slavery, giving the American People the ability to collectively shut them down.

Thomas Drake – Thomas Drake worked at the NSA in various analyst and management positions. He blew the whistle on the NSA’s Trailblazer Project that he felt was a violation of the Fourth Amendment and other laws and regulations. He contacted The Baltimore Sun which published articles about waste, fraud, and abuse at the NSA, including stories about Trailblazer. In April 2010, Drake was indicted by a grand jury on various charges, including obstructing justice and making false statements. After the May 22, 2011 broadcast of a 60 Minutes episode on the Drake case, the government dropped all of the charges against Drake and agreed not to seek any jail time in return for Drake’s agreement to plead guilty to a misdemeanor of misusing the agency’s computer system. Drake was sentenced to one year of probation and community service;

John Kiriakou – In an interview with ABC News on December 10, CIA Officer Kiriakou disclosed that the agency waterboarded detainees and that this constituted torture.

In the months that followed, Kiriakou passed the identity of a covert CIA operative to a reporter.

He was convicted of violating the Intelligence Identities Protection Act and sentenced, on January 25, 2013, to 30 months imprisonment. Having served the first months of his service he wrote an open letter describing the inhuman circumstances at the correction facility;

Bradley “Chelsea” Manning – US Army intelligence analyst who released the largest set of classified documents ever, mostly published by WikiLeaks and their media partners. The material included videos of the July 12, 2007 Baghdad airstrike and the 2009 Granai airstrike in Afghanistan; 250,000 United States diplomatic cables; and 500,000 army reports that came to be known as the Iraq War logs and Afghan War logs. Manning was convicted of violating the Espionage Act and other offenses and sentenced to 35 years in prison;

Jeffrey Sterling – Jeffrey Alexander Sterling is an American lawyer and former CIA employee who was arrested, charged, and convicted of violating the Espionage Act for revealing details about Operation Merlin to journalist James Risen. In April 2000, Sterling filed a complaint with the CIA’s Equal Employment Office about management’s alleged racial discrimination practices. The CIA subsequently revoked Sterling’s authorization to receive or possess classified documents concerning the secret operation and placed him on administrative leave in March 2001. After the failure of two settlement attempts, his contract with the CIA was terminated on January 31, 2002.

Sterling’s lawsuit accusing CIA officials of racial discrimination was dismissed by the judge after the government successfully argued the state secrets privilege by alleging the litigation would require disclosure of classified information. The 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the dismissal, ruling in 2005 that “there is no way for Sterling to prove employment discrimination without exposing at least some classified details of the covert employment that gives context to his claim.” In May 2015, Sterling was sentenced to 3½ years in prison.

Edward Snowden – Booz Allen Hamilton contractor Snowden released classified material on top-secret NSA programs including the PRISM surveillance program to The Guardian and The Washington Post in June 2013.

Julian Paul Assange – Australian computer programmer, publisher and journalist. He is editor-in-chief of the organization WikiLeaks, which he founded in 2006. He has won numerous accolades for journalism, including the Sam Adams Award and Martha Gellhorn Prize for Journalism. Assange founded WikiLeaks in 2006 but came to global prominence in 2010 when WikiLeaks published a series of leaks, allegedly provided by Chelsea Manning. These leaks included the Collateral Murder video (April 2010), the Afghanistan war logs (July 2010), the Iraq war logs (October 2010), and CableGate (November 2010). Assange became even more globally recognized after WikiLeaks published more leaks—the DNC leaks and the Podesta emails during the United States presidential election, 2016. Following the 2010 leaks, the United States government launched a criminal investigation into WikiLeaks and asked allied nations for assistance. In November 2010, a request was made for Assange’s extradition to Sweden, where he had been questioned months earlier over allegations of sexual assault and rape. Assange continued to deny the allegations after the case was re-opened, and expressed concern that he would be extradited from Sweden to the United States due to his perceived role in publishing secret American documents. Assange surrendered himself to UK police on 7 December 2010 and was held for ten days in solitary confinement before being released on bail. Assange sought and was granted asylum by Ecuador in August 2012. Assange has since remained in the Embassy of Ecuador in London, and is unable to leave without being arrested for breaching his bail conditions;

There are countless more heroic whistleblowers throughout history, and if they can pass the test as described above, they should immediately be liberated/pardoned/exonerated either now while they are living, or posthumously if they are no longer with us.

After the Eighteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China, a new round of anti-corruption campaign has been going on. With almost fifty provincial officials, more than 600 director-level officials and more than 200,000 petty officials snared, this campaign is being conducted in a harsh way on a large scale.

More importantly, as Vice Primer WANG Qishan pointed out, the ultimate goal is to reach the “would not think of it” stage from the current “would not dare” stage. In order to realize this goal, the passive control and surveillance measurements which have been carried on over decades may not be able to meet the demand. What should be prior taken into consideration is institutional designs for a clean government.

If we look for a successful example for China on anti-corruption reform, Hong Kong may be a good one. During the 1960s, with the increasing population and the rapid expansion of manufacturing industry, Hong Kong was faced with a similar situation which corruption was wide-spread around the force and the community in mainland China nowadays. (Manion, 2004)And yet since 1974 when the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) was created, the anti-corruption interventions has empowered to accomplish the transformation. This commission, according to the Basic Law, functions independently and is directly accountable to the Chief Executive. (Scott, 2011)

So the paper is conducted by analysis on causes of corruption and anti-corruption measurements in mainland China, followed by the evaluation and comparison of Hong Kong and mainland China. Though sharing a Chinese culture, great difference remains between each other. Especially when we focus on the anti-corruption achievement, Hong Kong, considered as the freer market from government intervention, has incredible achievements in combatting institutionalised corruption while China, during two decades of anti-corruption campaign, remains one of the most corrupt countries.

This paper considers the rooted causes and problems of the anti-corruption strategy in mainland China. By introducing the incidence of Chen Xitong and the general situation on state personnel corruption, it argues extent, forms and characteristics and the institutional loopholes of Chinese government.

Meanwhile, the process of the transformation in Hong Kong will be illustrated empirically and compared with the process in mainland China. The key part——ICAC will be evaluated. And the suggestions of establishing such commission in mainland China will be introduced and tested. The main researching method is new institutionalism by focusing on the institutional design and informal practice in mainland China.

The definition of corruption

Corruption, simply speaking, means the abuse of power for illegal monetary transaction. One of the most comprehensive definitions that by a short simply wording incudes both a public and private sector corruption comes from a Vienna-based Prof. Anis H. Bajrektarevic: “Seemingly victimless, hidden trade-off between influence and gain” (Bajrektarevic, Palermo Treaty system, Addleton NY, 2011). The World Bank defines (public) corruption as the abuse of public office for private gains. However, when it comes to a definition in concrete terms which contain too much connotation.(Girling, 1997) In addition, the causes and the results of public-private sector corruption are diverse. It can be traced in governments and civil societies, which include economic systems, administrative systems, judiciary systems and so on. (Harris, 2003) No matter how broad and complicated the concept is, it can reflect rules and violators who against those rules can be identified and punished. (Gambetta, 1999)

In the Chinese context, there are two major definitions that can be applied to China in the transition period. For those who are in favor of a tough enforcement and party disciplinary, they would like to provide a more broad-based definition which includes public offices, public interest and public opinions factors. By contrast, for those who are in favor of an effective effacement and market efficiency, they would focus on the abuse of public office. (Sun, 2004) Though there is no formalistic answer to the question on what the definition is, this paper would use a definition corresponding with the Chinese context. The corruption is defined as the abuse of authority or the public power by occupants in the government or the party to gain private interests. This interpretation narrows down to the public office level that focuses on the abuse of public power in the political activities.

Corruption in Mainland China

The process of corruption in China after 1949 can be roughly divided into two periods. There is the classical communist period from 1949 to 1976 and the socialist market from 1976 to the present. (Harris, 2003)
From 1980 on, the development of corruption took place together with the legitimating of financial pursuit, delegation of power to an individual or an agency, fast expansion of the market economy, deficiency of the Party’s discipline as well as delaying in introducing regulatory control and required on time legislative renewal. (Kwong, 1997)

One case disclosure shocked the public. That is that the mayor of Beijing——Chen Xitong was found directly engaging in bribe taking, with numerous bribe givers and huge material rewards. Even for Chen Xitong, whose downfall is often interpreted as political, the size of his booty warranted his fate. Two private villas, where Chen spent his leisure time and kept his mistresses between January 1993 and February 1995, cost the public nearly Y40 million in maintenance fees, and Y1.05 million in catering expenses. According to Sun (2004), “The villas were filled with luxuries ranging from gold doors and agate floors to extensive maintenance and security. Eventually, he was sentenced to 16-year jail term. ”(p. 148).

In Alan Liu’s categories, the forms of corruption in mainland China can be roughly divided into three groups. The first one is universal in all political systems including bribery, embezzlement and abuse. The state property is still a main target but not the only one. Instead, it is the greater inducement from and dependence on the market that now defines the forms and methods of violation. The second type is related to the economic reform, such as accounting violation and privilege seeking. When decentralisation was carried on gradually, autonomy and increasing resources have facilitated corruption dynamically. Precisely, there is linkage between economic liberalisation and corruption. Third one is resulted from moral degradation in a broad way. Sun (2004) states that “even here the marketplace has stimulated distinctive forms of moral deviation in recent years.”(p. 51).

Causes of corruption in China

The growth of corruption is considered as a policy outcome.(Gong, 1997)It results from mainly the economic reform in an unconscious way during the reforming and opening period. In general, economic reform which is for market development and economic growth, has built up the advantageous condition for the explosion of corruption. Increasing business opportunities, the looser economic policies and the higher payoffs motivated officials to get involved in corruption.

To break through the planned economy which made the economy in China stall market economy was introduced to China 30 years ago. Wedeman (2012) states “this reform help China accomplish an economic miracle,” which also makes China lie on the top in the international community. As the continuous development of market economy and reform and opening going deeper, corruption has come out as an ineluctable social phenomenon.

During the reform of economy, market competition is one of the most important factors which cannot be underestimated. When analysing the relationship between market economy and corruption, both western and Chinese scholars found out the paradox. There is a negative correlation between economic growth and corruption. Firstly Paolo Mauro, followed by other economists, found that the higher the rate of corruption is, the lower the rate of development is. Empirically, they drew out a conclusion that when the rate of corruption increases one point, it results in the reduction of one percent in economic growth.

Theoretically, this statement also can be correct because equality and justice are the key factors of market competition. However, this kind of developmental corruption model cannot successfully reflect the facts in Mainland China where we can see the increasing corruption rate together with the fast development of market and economic growth. Some severe realities are quite obvious. The number of officials corrupting keeps increasing. The involvement in business field of governmental officials is enlarged. Corruption, originally a concealed individual behaviour, is turning into an organised collusion such as Shanghai Gang. (Gong, 1997)

As I mention before, there is a paradox about the relationship between market economic growth and corruption. Admittedly, corruption keeps developing in Mainland China together with the rapid growth economy. Gong Ting (1997) uses a conceptual framework which is the interactions of formal and informal practice from new institutionalism to give the explanation. She believes that corruption, as an informal practice, is actually a production of formal practice with loophole. They are interactional to some extent. To stamp out corruption, the starting stage should be on the amendment towards formal practice such as legal framework, judicial system and institutional design.

As for the judicial system, she also points out that the wide spread of corruption is facilitated by the way the courts are organized and supervised. The courts, in mainland China, are not different from other governmental agencies. They are not independent. The local government decides the finances of the courts. Senior judges are nominated by the local CPC Committee and endorsed by the local People’s Congress, meaning judges whose decisions are seen to violate Party policy may be discharged or otherwise punished. The courts are subject to the extra-legal authority of the Political-Legal Secretary of the local Party Committee, which deals with difficult and important cases referred to it. (Manion, 2004)

Anti-corruption strategy in Hong Kong

What makes Hong Kong’s economy successful? Several points below are worthy being remarked such as low tax collection, freedom in market competition, a relatively efficient legal system, an efficient and effective network on transportation and communication and “a competent workforce working along with a pool of enterprising entrepreneurs”described by Howlett (1997, p.47) (as cited in Manion, 2004). Those factors not only significantly contribute to the economic development in Hong Kong but also enable Hong Kong’s economic wealth which does good to combatting corruption as the government can afford the salaries of civil servants and enough human and financial resources can be committed. (Quah, 2003)

Different from the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection of the Communist Party of China (Zhongjiwei), the ICAC operates independently in terms of structure, power, finance and personnel. Before 1997, there was a direct access between its Commissioner and the Governor. After July 1997, the ICAC is directly responsible to the Chief Executive. So far, the ICAC has developed into three major functions which are investigation, prevention and education to fight against corruption in Hong Kong. (Scott, 2011)

The Structure of the ICAC

As for its structure, there are main three unequal branches and the Administration Branch. Among the three departments, the largest one which is the Operation Department takes the responsibility of the investigative function. The over nine hundred employees takes up 73% of the ICAC human resource. The head of the Department also serves as the Deputy Commissioner, assisted by two Directors who are in charge of the government sector and the private sector respectively. The second largest one is the Community Relations Department. The two divisions of this Department are mass media and the public. It has 202 staff which is 16% of the total staff in the ICAC.

Intensive education projects are conducted in schools and business sectors. In addition, it also builds up a close relationship between mass media and district organisations in order to raise the public awareness and gain their support towards the anti-corruption movement. The smallest department is the Corruption Prevention Department (CPD), taking up 4% of the total employees in the ICAC. In concrete terms, the objectives of the CPD is to inspect the practice and procedures of government and public bodies. Also, it takes the responsibility of making amendments and suggestions on the working methods. Training for civil servants is also offered by the CPD for the purpose of prevention. Apart from these three departments, there is a separated administration department. It is in charge of human and financial resources and general matters such as accommodation and technologic service. Besides, an advisory committee is to examine the work of each department.

The ICAC also has its own recruitment practice. The employees are recruited out of the control of the Public Service Commission, which makes the staff of the ICAC separate from other governmental sections. During the recruitment process, the ICAC itself takes the whole responsibility of promotion, screening, interviewing and other process. As for the financial fund of it, by the 2001/2002 financial year, its budget has reach 81 times compared from the first year when it was established. This rapid increasing in budget reflects the strong will of the government on the support of the ICAC anti-corruption enforcement. (Quah, 2003)

Comparison on Anti-corruption Strategy in Mainland China and Hong Kong

Institutional Designs

The main difference in mainland China and Hong Kong is the anti-corruption agencies. In Hong Kong, the ICAC is an independent agency with power and increasing budget. More importantly, the Commissioner of the ICAC is directly answerable to the Chief Executive, which makes the ICAC a separated agency apart from other governmental departments. (Harris, 2003) However, in mainland China, unclear boundary exists between the party and government branch. Junctional jurisdictions are dominated by communist party committee generalists at each level. The second point is the institutional design. In Hong Kong, one of the three important methods of anti-corruption is the prevention through institutional design is; in mainland China, certain economic reform policies actually stimulate corruption. Reorganisation of procedures to reduce incentives for corrupt transaction has been shown recently. Finally, the analysis will go back to the basic ground of anti-corruption strategy which is the constitutional design. This essential difference lies in the two different regimes. Hong Kong has a functioning rule of law regime and effective civil liberty while mainland China is conducted by a rule of law regime less constructively and neglect of civil liberty. (Manion, 2004)

Hong Kong’s institutional design not only focus on the enforcement measures but also pays high attention to the prevention by offering suggestion. The ICAC’s Corruption Prevention Department is to study the work procedures in governmental departments to identify opportunities for corruption. (Manion, 2004) Having studied and analysed, suggestions would be offered so as to reduce the possibility of corruption by redesigning the working procedures. Further, after the suggestions are given, the Department is still in charge of checking the effectiveness of the suggestions, making sure the new design would not offer ground for new chances for corruption. The function as consultant is one of the key and unique notion of this department, especially when the government is on its way to draft and amend legislative text and policies. To a great extent, this function makes sure the anti-corruption movement starts from the beginning level where new laws are introduced for an incentive purpose.

Also in mainland China recently, more attention has been paid towards designing incentive structures from the original forcemeat stage. In Anhui province in 2000, the “taxed for fees” reform was adopted from the perspective of being incentive. The reform is to reduced possibility of corruption in the township governments and villages by reforming the basic collection system. It replaces a single agricultural tax, capped at about 7 percent of income and collected by higher level governments, for various fees and charges levied by township and village administrations. Compared with the previous regulations against illegal fees in 1990s, Manion (2004) described that “the reform frees officials at the rural grassroots level from fee collection and makes corruption at the township and village more difficult.”(p. 205) In 2003, this reform was successfully adopted nationwide, becoming a good example in mainland China of transforming to the incentive structure.

According to policy analysts, the key part of institutional design in Hong Kong is the independence of the ICAC and it is what mainland China should emulate when reforming the anti-corruption strategy. This refer to the exclusive anti-corruption mission of the agency: “The ICAC is not embedded in the civil service or any other larger organisation with multiple goals”.

Among this, the most important is the police force remaining independent, especially in the 1973 context of a public perception of that department as the most corrupt of all. Agency independent worked in Hong Kong primarily because this agency design worked as a signal, a public announcement of an “equilibrium switch”——but it worked especially well in a particular context.

With corruption structured this way, the creation of an agency that effectively rejected the police as anti-corruption agents helped legitimate the government effort and enlisted ordinary citizens as voluntary enforcers. Independent was complemented by power, also an element of agency design: the ICAC was given strong investigate powers and considerable financial resources.

Legal Framework

Difference also lies in the law set in Hong Kong and mainland China. The reasons behind it are partly contributed by the different policy choices which illustrate different experience and views. From a perspective of a higher degree, however, basic difference on constraints of power should be noticed.

A solid legal foundation has become the base of Hong Kong’s anti-corruption reform. Two important legislative context have to be introduced. The Prevention of Bribery Ordinance was strengthened in 1971. It provided with a clear definition by including “unexplained income or property”which can serve as the evidence of corruption practices. Clarity, stability, scope and whether it is easy for application, all the points above greatly influence on whether and how a corrupt official can be punished according to law. (Quah, 2003)

To build up a clear legal basis, several points should be well defined. Legal clarity, breadth, stability, and ease of application all contributed to a situation where corrupt officials were routinely punished according to law. And the public confidence of the anti-corruption enforcement is also, to some extent, basing on whether the law is harsh without loopholes.

On the contrary, in mainland China, the main force on combatting corruption is centralised by the CDIC which plays as a leading and administrative role. But as for the legal system itself, it remains weak.

What depletes the development of law and a legal-based authority in mainland China? One point should be noticed that under the leading of the CDIC, the investigation and punishment are conducted within the party system. This makes lag when a criminal case is transferring into the prosecution process. So the agency design which makes anti-corruption enforcement outside the criminal procuratorates system may be one of answers to the question above. (Gong, 2004) Besides, the law making process is also not propitious. The first criminal code was passed in 1979. Then comes rapid changes on political economy which forced law makers refine the law with taking lots of new factors into consideration. The role of law and its distinction between party leadership shows a fundamental contradiction in mainland China. The law should serve as a powerful tool to fight against the abuse of official power. (Manion, 2004)

Conclusion

China’s path of corruption is actually quite similar to the process in Hong Kong, rapid growth in population and economic transition. By viewing Hong Kong as a good example of mainland China, we can find basically one main loophole which is the ambiguity of power between the party and judiciary from both legal and institutional prospective. If mainland China are going to set up an independent agency like ICAC in Hong Kong, a clear boundary must be well-defined. First of all, as for the institutional setting, it is to avoid the interference from the government and the party in order to ensure authority and transparency of this agency. Second, it is to reduce delay when a corruption crime transferred from the investigation of the party to the prosecutors. Further, even though the “fight against tigers”movement achieve success for the current situation, refining the present legal framework still remains the determinant.

About the author:
*Ms. Lingbo ZHAO is a candidate of the Hong Kong Baptist University, Department of Government and International Studies. Her research interest includes Sino-world, Asia and cross-Pacific.
Contact: harryzhaolin@gmail.com

Bibliography
Girling, J. (2002). Corruption, capitalism and democracy (Taylor & Francis e-Library ed.). London: Routledge.

Gong, T. (1997). Forms and characteristics of china’s corruption in the 1990s: Change with continuity. Communist and Post – Communist Studies, 30(3), 277.

Gong, T. (2004). Dependent judiciary and unaccountable judges: Judicial corruption in contemporary china. China Review, 4(2), 33-54.

Harris, R., 1947. (2003). Political corruption: In and beyond the nation state. New York: Routledge.

Heywood, P. (1997). Political corruption. Malden, MA: Blackwell.

Kwong, J. (1997). The political economy of corruption in China. Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe.

Lee, Peter N. S., 1940. (1991). Bureaucratic corruption during the deng xiaoping era. Hong Kong: Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, Chinese University of Hong Kong.

Manion, M., 1955. (2004). Corruption by design: Building clean government in mainland china and hong kong. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Quah, J. S. T. (2003). Curbing corruption in asia: A comparative study of six countries. Singapore: Eastern Universities Press.

Scott, I., 1943, & City University of Hong Kong. Department of Public and Social Administration. (2011). Corruption control in hong kong: Rules, regulations and policies. Hong Kong: Dept. of Public and Social Administration, City University of Hong Kong.

Sun, Y., 1959. (2004). Corruption and market in contemporary china. Ithaca, N,Y: Cornell University Press.

Wedeman, A. H., 1958. (2012). Double paradox: Rapid growth and rising corruption in china. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

Largely spurred by the loss of East Pakistan1, and a perception of a hostile, bigger and better-armed India, Pakistan had achieved a capability “to rapidly assemble a nuclear device if necessary” around the late-1980s2. During this period, the Cold War was at its peak and Pakistan imbibed an important lesson: that from 1945 onwards, the two nuclear-weapons armed adversaries, USSR/Warsaw Pact and NATO, have confronted each other through proxies in distant parts of the world – but never fought each other directly.

Simultaneously, Pakistan experienced first-hand the methods used by the US-Saudi combine (i.e. the use of mujahideen) to defeat the Soviets in Afghanistan and concluded that such irregular forces served two vital purposes; one – they provided a low-cost, asymmetric and disruptive option against superior conventional forces of the USSR; and two – they made the Soviet Union spend disproportionate amounts of resources on countering the asymmetric threat with little or no damage to the sponsoring states3.

It is thus no coincidence that Pakistan’s ‘proxy war’ against India coincided with it having attained nuclear capability and the Soviet preparations for a final withdrawal from Afghanistan. Pakistan then began using two primary tools to have its way in the sub-continent, (i) using terrorism and ‘proxy war’ to bleed India; and (ii) brandishing its nuclear arsenal to thwart punitive actions by India. Evidently, for Pakistan, nuclear weapons are:

• An instrument that allows it to wage offensive proxy war, but provide it a defence against retaliatory punitive action.
• A strategic equalizer of power asymmetry, i.e. they balance India’s conventional military superiority.
• A strategic lever for extracting maximum aid from the USA, Europe, China and some countries in the Middle-East.

The initial period saw Pakistan drop subtle hints about possessing nuclear weapons (e.g. Operation Brass Tacks, 1987). Its blatant ‘sabre-rattling’ of nuclear weapons however, began astride the 1999 Kargil Conflict and Operation Parakaram (December 2001-2002). This was followed by a periodic ‘lowering of the nuclear threshold ’. No nuclear-weapons State evolves a nuclear deterrence strategy in isolation. Hence, Pakistan too seems to have analyzed other doctrines and evidently, Russia’s April 2000 strategic military doctrine, which espoused the concept of ‘De-escalation’, seems to have influenced Pakistan. However, the threat scenario, the Indian nuclear response strategy and the international environment possibly led to a perception in Pakistan that its nuclear deterrence doctrine was perhaps not being taken too seriously by India. It then tweaked that doctrine by co-opting Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNWs). However, even such a ‘full-spectrum’ response has loopholes. This range of issues is analyzed below.

Russia’s Strategic Military Doctrine

As the USSR was breaking up, the Russian leaders saw how the US-led coalition defeated (1991) the Soviet-equipped and Soviet-trained Iraqi forces of Saddam Hussein in just a few days. In November 1993, the nascent Russian government under Boris Yeltsin outlined the “Main Provisions of the Military Doctrine”. This advocated use of nuclear weapons only in a global war. Between 1997 and 1999, Moscow saw the NATO wage an intelligence-led precision military campaign in Yugoslavia. By now, the Russian armed forces were a pale shadow of its predecessor, the Soviet war machine.

It was thus evident to Moscow that the conventional forces capabilities of the US were far beyond Russia’s own capacities at that juncture. Since the fundamental causes of the Kosovo conflict seemed quite akin to the reasons for the Chechen conflict, the Russian leadership apprehended that the US may also interfere in Chechnya, where the second Chechen war was building up.

The Russian government hence commenced work on a new military doctrine under Vladimir Putin, then-Secretary of Russia’s National Security Council (March 1999-August 1999). This doctrine, signed in April 2000 by Acting President Vladimir Putin, replaced the November 1993 document. The new doctrine propounded that if Russia was faced with a large-scale conventional attack that exceeded its capacity for defence, it may respond with a limited nuclear strike, which would then act as a motivation for the adversary to ‘De-escalate’ the conflict. In October 2004, President Putin unveiled the “Immediate Tasks of Development of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation”. This report formally developed the 2000 Military Doctrine and postulated two missions for Russia’s nuclear weapons, i.e. (i) deterrence of a large-scale attack against Russia; and (ii) ‘De-escalation’ of a limited conflict in case deterrence fails.

“De-escalation”

There were clear differences between this new doctrine and the Soviet nuclear deterrence strategy during the Cold War. The latter had threatened inflicting of unacceptable damage on an enemy and ‘MAD’ (Mutual Assured Destruction). Under such conditions, the use of nuclear weapons was unthinkable as it entailed “rapid escalation to the exchange of massive nuclear strikes”. Russia’s new doctrine however, held out the threat of “tailored damage” and was aimed at making an aggressor weigh the cost he will suffer versus the strategic benefit he may derive from that conflict. The unstated rationale was that while the US may like to interfere in Chechnya and assist the rebels, the strategic gains that may accrue to the US from such a venture were not worth risking a nuclear exchange with Russia, because for Moscow, retaining territorial control over Chechnya was of core national interest. Besides, Russia’s new doctrine favoured striking adversarial military targets stretching outwards from the battlefield itself, rather than the population or economic centres that were typical targets in the Cold War. The new doctrine also underscored a close linkage between the concept of ‘De-escalation’ and ‘Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons’ / TNWs.

The Russian doctrine is however, not entirely new. At a conceptual level, it borrows from Thomas Schelling’s seminal books entitled ‘The Strategy of Conflict’ (1960) and ‘Arms and Influence’ (1966). At the operational level, it mirrors the 1960s era US policy, which had contemplated limited use of nuclear weapons (including TNWs and ‘neutron bombs’) to oppose Soviet aggression in Europe (as expressed, e.g. in the 1963 document produced by the US National Security Council entitled “The Management and Termination of War with the Soviet Union”).

Evolution of Pakistan’s Nuclear Strategy

A dispassionate analysis of the outcomes of the 1965 and 1971 Indo-Pak Wars suggests that insofar as the India’s Western front was concerned, there was a kind of strategic stalemate albeit in favour of India, with both India and Pakistan capturing some amounts of territory. Pakistan however lost the erstwhile East Pakistan (now Bangladesh), which was located across the Indian sub-continent. In sum: the Indo-Pak conventional forces asymmetry was not overwhelmingly against Pakistan.

However, in 1979, the USA, one of Pakistan’s main military backers, suspended most aid to Pakistan under the Symington Amendment in response to Pakistan’s covert construction of a uranium enrichment facility. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan few months later (December 1979) heralded a fresh era in US-Pakistan relations. The US waived the months-old Symington sanctions for six years (till 1985), gave a US$3.2 billion economic and military aid package to Pakistan, and along with Saudi Arabia, financed the ‘jihad’ in Afghanistan. To continue aid to Pakistan beyond 1985, the US Congress then approved the ‘Pressler Amendment’. This required the US President to annually certify that Pakistan did not possess a nuclear device. Presidents Reagan and Bush certified the same till the Soviets withdrew (1989) from Afghanistan. In October 1990, after President Bush declined to furnish the Pressler certification, the US administration cut off all aid to Pakistan. The Pressler sanctions were followed by Commonwealth sanctions after General Musharraf’s coup in October 1999. Together, they ensured there was very little supply of Western military equipment to Pakistan from 1990 onwards. Although Pakistan had aligned itself with the US in September 2001 and was given MNNA status in 2004, major arms transfers from the US commenced only after 2008. Pakistan however had effectively utilized the window to rapidly progress its nuclear weapons program.

By end-1990s, the Pakistani armed forces had major equipment deficiencies, an aspect which was very apparent during Operation Parakaram (2001-2002). Nevertheless, possession of nuclear weapons had left Pakistan quite smug. The 1999 Kargil Conflict shook Pakistan’s confidence on account of two reasons:

• One: The Indian military action proved that there is “space” between ‘breakdown of diplomacy and commencement of a nuclear war’, and by corollary, for a short duration conflict with limited objectives in a ‘nuclear threat environment’. This issue needs to be seen in light of the fact that while a nuclear weapons state can “draw a line” and dare an adversary to cross it, the same is not a cast-iron defence. The US’ nuclear arsenal did not dissuade China from moving its forces into North Korea in 1950; Israel nuclear weapons could not deter Syria and Egypt from invading Israel in 1973; Indian nuclear weapons did not discourage Pakistan from conducting an audacious military operation in 1999 (Kargil); and importantly, Pakistani nuclear weapons did not deter India from re-taking illegally occupied areas during the Kargil Conflict.
• Two: The international community was deeply averse to posturing of nuclear weapons by Pakistan to deter conflict, or their use for conflict resolution.

The 1999 Kargil Conflict hence led Pakistan to search for a better strategic doctrine to thwart punitive action by India while it pursued its “foreign policy” with the help of terrorist and militant entities.

Meanwhile in India, the persistence of terrorist attacks, lessons of the Kargil Conflict and Operation Parakaram, an examination of the India-Pakistan conventional forces balance and the international environment led the Indian military to following conclusions:

• Due to less strategic depth and shorter lines of communication, Pakistan could mobilize its forces in a shorter time frame vis-à-vis India. Consequently, the Pakistani Army was ready to handle an Indian offensive by the time India completed its protracted mobilization.
• India’s long mobilization period provided ‘space’ for intervention by major international players, especially after Pakistan started ‘sabre-rattling’ its nuclear weapons.
• The conventional forces asymmetry between India and Pakistan is not so much that it guarantees India an outright victory in a short war. Hence India needed to achieve surprise, and then beat in time and space the arrival of Pakistani troops, especially its reserves, in most sectors.
• Any future war with Pakistan would likely be limited in scope and in time. Therefore, both sides would strive to make gains in the limited period available prior to conflict termination. In turn, this required application of maximum military force in the shortest time frame. This made management of escalation dynamics difficult.
• A war with limited objectives however, could allow India to operate below Pakistan’s actual nuclear threshold(s).

The above lessons and analysis by Indian planners led to the evolution of the so-called Cold Start Doctrine (CSD), (a.k.a. the “Pro-Active Doctrine”), which was enunciated around 2005. The CSD envisions the Indian Army mobilising and commencing strikes almost simultaneously, and operating without crossing thresholds which could trigger a nuclear response from Pakistan. The CSD was critically examined by Pakistan’s military, who concluded that (i) the threat posed by the Indian CSD is credible and Pakistan-specific; and (ii) the main concern was an apparent lack of readiness of Pakistani armed forces to operate in the environment a CSD could generate, particularly because Pakistan’s conventional war-fighting capability had been debilitated by various US and Western sanctions, and its own economic capability. Wargames by the Pakistani military also concluded that it faced difficulties in evolving a military strategy that deters conventional conflict. Soon thereafter, Pakistan initiated two parallel plans:

• A mid- to long-term plan to develop conventional capabilities to counter India’s CSD.
• A nuclear weapons-dependent strategy to thwart conflict with India in the interim period as it built its conventional capabilities / armed forces.

Developing Conventional Capabilities to Counter India’s CSD: This had two components:

• One: Reduce the response timings of the Pakistani Army by:
  • Re-locating certain formations closer to the IB.
  • Building critical infrastructure (bridges, rail links, defence canals, etc) to reduce response time and improve intra- and inter-theatre mobility, as also obstacles to impose delay on Indian offensive forces.
  • Updating its Mobilization Regulations.
    (This is reflected in the Pakistan Army Doctrine 2011 (a.k.a. “Comprehensive Response” doctrine), which states, inter alia, that considering “the possibility of Pakistan being drawn into a war on a very short notice, all formations [should] organize —- in a manner that effective combat potential can be generated within 24 to 48 hours from the corps to unit level and two to three days at the Army level.”)
• Two: Force Development Strategy: Pakistan replaced the 15-Year Long Term Force Modernisation Plan with a more ambitious Armed Forces Development Plan-2025. This was focused on acquisition of select “hi-tech” weapon platforms; equipment which improves the Pakistani military’s strike and night-fighting capabilities; force multipliers to improve its situational awareness and ISR capabilities; Special Forces; air mobility; rapid reaction forces etc.

Nuclear Weapons-Dependent Strategy to Thwart Conflict: The problem with conventional force development is that it has a long timeline. Hence, deeply conscious of the growing conventional forces asymmetry with India and aware that there would be limits to India’s patience on terrorism and ‘proxy war’, Pakistan came under a strategic compulsion to posture nuclear weapons. It therefore co-opted another stratagem, viz, “Lowering of its Nuclear Threshold” and began to project that ‘any war with India would become a nuclear war’ in order to thwart any conflict. For this, Pakistan appears to have also picked a sub-set of nuclear deterrence theory, viz, that “if there is stability at nuclear levels, then there can be instability at conventional levels (i.e. two adversaries can engage in conventional war); but if there is instability at nuclear levels (as Pakistan is posturing), then there will be stability at conventional levels” (i.e. an adversary will refrain from waging conventional war). Pakistan also enunciated five broad nuclear ‘thresholds’ beyond which Pakistan may be compelled to use nuclear weapons (viz, any attempt to target its nuclear assets; a territorial / space threshold; military threshold / force degradation; economic threshold; and a political threshold).

Similarities: Pakistan and Russian Doctrines: The similarities between the Russian and Pakistani doctrines are evident. Both nations faced a conventional forces asymmetry. Both doctrines are aimed at averting war by holding out the threat of “tailored damage” to an adversary through the use of nuclear weapons, but if war was imposed on it, then to try and “de-escalate” the conflict. The overall aim was to hold out the threat of a limited nuclear strike in order to compel an adversary to either accept the status quo ante (as had happened after “26/11” and other terrorist strikes including the recent killings in Uri) – or force an adversary to retract from the conflict started by him.

That Pakistan has been posturing nuclear weapons primarily to deter India is also evident from statements by various Pakistani leaders. In 2004, Mahmud Ali Durrani4 described four policy objectives for Islamabad’s nuclear weapons, i.e. deter all forms of external aggression; deter through a combination of conventional and strategic forces; deter counter-force strategies by securing strategic assets and threatening nuclear retaliation; and stabilize strategic deterrence in South Asia. In 2006, Pakistani officials indicated that their nuclear posture was aimed at preserving territorial integrity against Indian attack, prevent military escalation, and counter India’s conventional superiority5. Air Commodore Khalid Banuri, Director of Arms Control and Disarmament Affairs in Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division, stated (December 2011) that Islamabad’s nuclear arsenal is part of an effort “to deny India the space for launching any kind of aggression against Pakistan.”6 In October 2015, Pakistani Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry asserted that its “nuclear programme is one dimensional: stopping Indian aggression before it happens. It is not for starting a war. It is for deterrence. 7”

Difference in Applicability: Although Pakistan seems to have been influenced by the Russian policy of ‘De-escalation’, there are differences in applicability which perhaps were not apparent at that time. These were:

• Unlike India and Pakistan, Russia and the USA are not geographically contiguous countries. In turn, the distance limited the damage to the aggressor (in this case, the USA) to just its military assets in the battlefield and its periphery; the distance (and the time of flight) also gave both nations time to talk on a nuclear hotline to preclude an all-out nuclear war.
• US intervention in Russia / Russian periphery would largely stem from geo-political interests, and not on account of mutual, acrimonious, long-standing territorial claims or dastardly, persistent terrorist actions.
• Both the US and Russia possessed a complete nuclear triad and by extension, second-strike capabilities; this tended to give some stability to the nuclear regime. Additionally, both nations had long-standing nuclear treaties.

Problems With the Pakistani Doctrine: Over a period of time therefore, Pakistan perhaps started to perceive that India was not taking its nuclear threats too seriously. Few reasons for this premise appear to be as follows:

• One: Survivability of Nuclear Assets for Second-Strike: India vs Pakistan. Although India yet does not have a submarine-based deterrence, it does enjoy a de-facto ‘second-strike’ capability because Pakistani missiles cannot cover the entire Indian peninsula (with Pakistan developing new land-based missiles like the Shaheen-III, this is set to change). The survivability of Pakistan’s nuclear assets is therefore in question considering (i) its lack of strategic depth; and (ii) the absence of a sea-based deterrence to complete the nuclear ‘triad’. In other words, India would be able to dominate the nuclear escalation ladder despite Pakistan’s ‘First Use’.
• Two: Indian Response: The Indian nuclear doctrine espouses ‘No First Use’ (NFU) but ‘massive retaliation’ if India or its forces are targeted with a nuclear weapon. This posed a dilemma for Pakistani planners : if Pakistan uses a nuclear weapon against Indian offensive forces even inside Pakistan in order to avoid the limited punishment that the Indian Armed Forces may inflict, the Indian nuclear response could potentially annihilate Pakistan. Hence, for Pakistan, the nuclear game may not be worth the candle it is played for. This dilemma would have been partly addressed if Pakistan had the ability to deplete the Indian nuclear arsenal with a ‘first’ / disarming strike, or had nuclear assets that could survive an Indian retaliatory strike (i.e. a credible ‘second strike’ capability).
• Three: If Pakistan used a large nuclear weapon as per its prescribed “thresholds” against an ingressed Indian strike force, Pakistan itself would sustain a lot of collateral damage, with much of the target zone being affected by fallout also.
• Four: Pakistan and India are contiguous countries. Considering the pattern of seasonal winds, there are good chances that in some months, the fallout from a nuclear strike may be blown back over Pakistan.
• Five: Pakistan’s nuclear sabre-rattling has been drawing unwarranted attention to its nuclear program, especially of the USA. This had the potential to affect Pakistan-China cooperation in the nuclear field, as well as Pakistan’s quest for nuclear energy.

Pakistan’s Dual-Theme: Use of Nuclear Weapons: Pakistan has been indirectly ‘conveying” to India that it has “lowered its nuclear threshold” and “any war will be a nuclear war”. To the international community however, Pakistan has been posturing as a responsible nuclear power and stating that Pakistan ‘will maintain an adequate conventional military force in order to raise its nuclear threshold’’. In May 2007, Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division, in a presentation on ‘Elements of Pakistan’s Nuclear Policy’ in France, spelt out, among other issues, that Pakistan’s (i) nuclear capability is solely for the purpose of deterrence of aggression; (ii) will maintain an adequate conventional military force in order to raise its nuclear threshold; and (iii) will pursue a Strategic Restraint Regime (SRR) and other nuclear risk reduction measures in the region. A March 2012 US State Department report8 stated that “Pakistan ……. nuclear use would be a ‘last resort’ under circumstances that are unthinkable”. Earlier, in 1999, former Pakistan Army Corps Commander Lt Gen Sardar FS Lodhi had outlined that Pakistan’s nuclear response would be ‘graduated’9, i.e. (i) first, it would render a warning; (ii) it would then conduct a demonstrative nuclear explosion; (iii) this would be followed by a nuclear strike over enemy troops in Pakistani territory; and (iv) the final step would be a nuclear strike against a small border cantonment in India; followed by a strike(s) against Indian counter-value / counter-force targets. This dual-theme – one for India and another for the international community – also created doubts about Pakistan may actually do.

Tweaking the Existing Doctrine

It thus seems that despite nuclear ‘sabre-rattling’, Pakistan felt that it has not been able to posture a credible strategic nuclear deterrence that will completely deter India from punitive actions. Besides, the regional security environment had evolved. Pakistan’s quest for a battlefield nuclear attack capability against Indian forces and a shift towards “full-spectrum” response appears to be a tacit admission of this doubt. Pakistan hence seems to have looked at NATO’s flexible response strategy with TNWs and co-opted some elements of that. Given Pakistan’s limited strategic depth, it’s pre-occupation with counter-insurgency operations in its western tribal regions, and its economic and internal security situation, a ‘limited objectives’ war by India will be a total war for Pakistan : it cannot sustain even a 20-25 kms deep ingress in the built-up areas of Punjab. Hence, Pakistan began modifying its nuclear posture by developing new short-range nuclear-capable weapon systems to counter military threats below the strategic level, with the overall aim being to create a full-spectrum deterrent that is designed not only to respond to nuclear attacks but to also counter an Indian conventional incursion into Pakistani territory. In March 2015, Lt Gen (Retd) Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, former DG Strategic Plans Division (SPD) acknowledged that Pakistan “possesses a variety of nuclear weapons, in different categories; at the strategic level, at the operational level, and the tactical level ”.10

The 60-km range Nasr / HATF-IX Battlefield Range Ballistic Missile (BRBM) with a TNW seem to be the resulting brainwave. With the Nasr-TNW combination, Pakistan is exploring the space for a flexible response which falls between a massive albeit suicidal nuclear response, engaging in a catastrophic conventional battle – and doing nothing. The compact size, mobility and ‘shoot-and-scoot’ capability of the Nasr rocket are supposed to address survivability concerns; its short range, and comparatively flatter ballistic trajectory would make it difficult for any Indian Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) to intercept it; its tactical capability would allow it to target the Indian Army’s offensive ‘Integrated Battle Groups’ that have broken through into Pakistan; a single-digit kiloton weapon would reduce collateral damage within Pakistan; and importantly, a limited nuclear response astride the border / within Pakistan would pose a response dilemma11 to Indian leaders, particularly with Pakistan also posturing strategic weapons.

Pakistani leaders like Lt Gen (Retd) Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, former DG SPD and Dr. Aman Rashid, Pakistan Foreign Ministry official, have stated that the development of the Nasr-TNW combination by Pakistan is a result of (i) the widening military gap between Pakistan and India on account of latter’s massive weapons acquisition and huge defence budget; and (ii) offensive doctrines postulated by India under the nuclear overhang, viz, the CSD. Separately, Pakistani strategic thinkers12 opine that “the Pakistani rationale for TNW is that these weapons are an insurance policy against surprise and a guarantee at the operational level. . . . which will buy time against a strategic defeat,” and that TNWs can deter “Indian military aggression” because the Nasr-TNW combination generates “tactical uncertainty, strategic hesitation and international resolve to prevent nuclear war.”  The 201513 report by the US Naval Postgraduate School states that “TNWs would theoretically plug the gap and create a force multiplier effect for a thinly stretched Pakistani Army”. The report adds that considering the Nasr’s range (60 kms), there are three possible-use scenarios, i.e. (i) “at 3 kms [break-in stage], Pakistan would have the option of a trans-border employment”; (ii) “at 20 kms [penetration depth], Pakistan would have the option of employment across the border or on its own territory”; and (iii) “at 35 kms, Pakistan would be faced with employment on its own territory”.

However, questions remain about the operational status of the TNW component of the Nasr/HATF-IX system. Although the delivery rocket per se is ready and functional, it is not clear whether Pakistan has been able to sufficiently miniaturize a nuclear weapon to fit inside the Nasr rocket. While the US intelligence community (National Air & Space Intelligence Center report of 2013) has listed the Nasr-TNW as a deployed system since 2013, as per the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (‘Pakistani Nuclear Forces’, 01 November 2016), “operational deployment of the nuclear version may still be in its early stages.” A former Pakistani official knowledgeable about his country’s nuclear weapons program has stated that Pakistan has not deployed these weapons14. Even if Pakistan has been able to do so, considering that it will likely use Plutonium for such miniaturization, there is a limit to the numbers of TNWs that Pakistan can currently field. This constrains its ability to stem a full-scale Indian offensive consisting of a number of offensive battle groups.

Bomb Designing Skills and Reliability of the Miniaturised Weapon15: As per the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists16, Pakistani bomb designers, who have been at it since the 1970s and have had help from China, appear to have low- to medium-level technical skills. However, let us assume that Pakistan has achieved miniaturisation. In the US, extensive experimentation was needed to create such a small, workable device. In absence of full testing, Pakistan could, at best, have worked on the explosive and detonator, which is not the same as testing with actual materials and device. In sum: assuming there is a TNW for the Nasr, what Pakistan may possess is an untested, unreliable device.

Numbers of Warheads for the Nasr Rocket: The International Panel on Fissile Materials has estimated that as of late 2015, Pakistan had an inventory of approximately 3100 kg of weapon-grade Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) and at least 190 kg of weapon-grade plutonium. This material is theoretically enough to produce 204–306 warheads, assuming that each warhead’s solid core uses either 12–18 kg of weapon-grade HEU or 4–6 kg of plutonium. However, calculating the number of warheads based solely on the fissile material inventory tends to produce inflated warhead estimates as a number of factors are not cognized, e.g. warhead design, its proficiency, warhead production rates, reserve fissile material, etc17. The space and shape constraints in the Nasr rocket mean that it will likely require a linear nuclear warhead. A plutonium-based, linear implosion design can be miniaturised to fit inside the Nasr rocket, but such a device requires almost double the quantity of plutonium as used in a spherical device18. Assuming current availability of about 220 kgs of Plutonium and a requirement of about 10 kg of Plutonium (at almost double the rate) per linear-design weapon, this plutonium stockpile translates into roughly 22 TNWs. It is not clear whether Pakistan will appropriate the existing Plutonium stockpile for just the Nasr-TNW combo, or will also distribute some Plutonium for its Babur / HATF-7 Ground Launched Cruise Missile and the Ra’ad / HATF-8 Air Launched Cruise Missile. As per the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, both are much slimmer than Pakistan’s ballistic missiles, suggesting success with warhead miniaturization based on plutonium instead of uranium. If it distributes the available Plutonium for warheads for three different sets of weapons (i.e. the Nasr rocket, Babur and the Ra’ad cruise missiles, then given the 60 km range of the Nasr rocket and the fact that India may deploy a number of IBGs astride a long border, Pakistan will need a larger number of warheads for the Nasr to pose a credible threat to a full-scale Indian offensive. The danger however lies in rapid escalation even if one TNW is used. The US Defense Intelligence Agency Director Vincent Stewart stated in his testimony (Senate Armed Services Committee; February 9, 2016) that the Islamabad’s “evolving doctrine associated with tactical nuclear weapons, increases the risk of an incident or accident.”19

Effect of Nuclear Weapons on Armoured Vehicles: The Indian IBGs would comprise heavily armoured tanks and lightly armoured Infantry Combat Vehicles (ICVs). As per a 1994 study20 and associated simulations and analysis, incapacitating a tank requires an overpressure of about 3 ATM. The distances from ground zero to which various weapon yields can generate this overpressure are shown in Table opposite. Although the number of tanks one warhead can destroy will depend on the tactical disposition (e.g. in a Bridge Head; or dispersed during an advance), the fact remains that multiple warheads will be required to destroy an IBG. As per a 2001 study by Ashley J Tellis, Pakistan would need about “37 weapons of 15 KT (or 57 weapons of 8 KT) to operationally disable an Indian armored division”21. In other words, the likely damage potential from the NASR’s TNW appears limited and its battlefield utility seems minimal. To pose a credible threat on the battlefield, Pakistan will have to co-opt SRBMs with tactical capability like the Abdali (HATF-II) and Ghaznavi (HATF-III) (these could be deployed with simple fission warheads). Thus, instead of providing any advantage in battle, a limited nuclear attack could in fact seriously complicate the task of Pakistani leaders.

Problems : Deployment of TNWs

TNWs tend to lower the threshold for nuclear weapon use and their employment against a nuclear-armed opponent carries a significant danger of rapid escalation to strategic levels. They are hence inherently de-stabilizing. TNWs also encourage the concept of forward-basing. In turn, they become vulnerable to an attack by an adversary especially through air power; such vulnerability to attack encourages their pre-emptive use in the first place (“use it or lose it”). The Indian ‘Prahaar’ battlefield tactical ballistic missile, the ‘Nirbhay’ LACM, the ‘Brahmos’ supersonic cruise missile-Su-30 fighter aircraft combination are some weapons that India could possibly use for pre-emptive strikes against the mobile Nasr platform. The use of multiple nuclear warheads astride the border / on Pakistani territory could also render the affected area unliveable for many years; this needs to be seen in light of the fact that the fighting was aimed at retaining control/use of that territory in the first place. It is for all these reasons that many experts feel that considering the current availability of massive conventional bombs of sizes up to 13.6 tons (including fuel-air explosive variants), low single-digit kiloton or sub-kiloton nuclear weapons are more of a problem than a solution.

Additionally, Pakistan’s Nasr-TNW programme has aroused international concerns on the possibility of TNWs being delegated to Pakistani military field commanders, their consequent vulnerability during field transportation to jihadi elements, etc. In turn, the Pakistani top leadership has been emphasizing that:

• As the use of nuclear weapon including TNWs would have strategic implications, these would only be used as a weapon of last resort, primarily to defend the country’s sovereignty.
• Pakistan has developed adequate conventional responses to India’s CSD. TNWs would only come into play once conventional responses are deemed inadequate.
• The command and control of all nuclear weapons including the TNWs would remain centralized, the decision to use nuclear weapons would only be taken at the National Command Authority (NCA) and there would be no pre-delegation of authority.
• The geography of Pakistan is favourable to deploying TNWs at forward locations within few hours and therefore, there would be no pre-deployment of such weapons and SRBMs.

As evident, some of the above statements too are dual-themed. It is noteworthy that after the 1998 Indo-Pak nuclear tests, Pakistani military officers had stressed that any use of nuclear weapons would have strategic consequences22; however, the Pakistani establishment soon began “lowering its nuclear threshold”. Now, after a fair amount of drum-beating on the Nasr-TNW capability as a battlefield weapon, Pakistan seems to be reiterating that use of even TNWs will have strategic implications and will be used as a last resort. Whether they follow this up in practice is not known. That said, there is need to take note of the Pak Army’s considerable commitment in FATA-KPP (Federally Administered Tribal Area; Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province), which makes defence of Pakistan against an Indian offensive very difficult. While it has sufficient reserves to respond to LoC violations, it cannot fight an Indian attack across both the LoC and the IB. This raises the stakes for Pakistan to fall back on nuclear weapons, particularly TNWs.

Conclusion

Except in World War-II, historically, it is conventionally inferior powers that have threatened use of nuclear weapons in order to deter stronger adversaries. The NATO’s Cold War doctrine of using TNWs to deter the Warsaw Pact from invading Europe, and Russia’s 2000/2004 doctrine threatening the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs) to deter the USA/NATO from intervening in areas of core interest to Russia, are quite similar to Pakistan’s doctrine. However, while nuclear weapons command attention and generate tremendous fear, their utility for warfighting seems limited in view of the long-term, dispersed damage they can inflict.

Considering the changing international dynamics, the foreign aid profile, and Pakistan’s economic and security situation, it is unlikely that Pakistan will be able to strengthen its conventional capability adequately in the near term. An additional problem for the Pakistani Army is its continuing involvement in counter-insurgency / stability operations in its western tribal regions. It is hence assessed that Pakistan will continue to fine-tune its nuclear doctrine and strategy, and ‘sabre-rattle’ nuclear weapons.

For India, the military and political challenge is to (i) find out where Pakistan’s real threshold lies, and then calibrate use of force surgically in a manner akin to “salami slicing tactics”; and (ii) operate above the level of Sub-Conventional Operations/covert operations – but below a full-scale war so that Pakistan’s actual ‘thresholds’, as opposed to propagandized ones, are not crossed.

Lastly: the USA has oft propounded a view that if Pakistan can build credible conventional forces, it’s reliance on nuclear weapons would lessen. History does not support such a view and such a strengthening could not only allow Pakistan to pursue a more pro-active, militant-terrorist entities based “foreign policy” especially vis-à-vis India, but may also increase India’s reliance on nuclear weapons (currently, India’s conventional military power allows it to have a lower reliance on nuclear weapons, as is evident from our nuclear policy). The dilemma therefore is quite stark and there are indicators that India could also be looking at including flexible response options in its nuclear strategy.

About the author:
* Besides authoring various articles, Brigadier Kuldip Singh (retd), has served in various capacities, including: Deputy Assistant Director, in DRDO’s CVRDE, Avadi, for Project MBT ‘Arjun’. Also assisted in Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme. Involved in development, trials, evaluation and product improvement; General Staff Officer Gd-I, in the Dte Gen of Mechanized Warfare, Army HQs; Commanded an Armoured Regiment (including during Operation Vijay) and later, an offensive Strike Brigade; Director (Coordination), Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA): Assisted in raising and operationalization of DIA post-Kargil. Responsible for DIA’s intelligence coordination and handling, and final formulation of integrated assessments for the armed forces; Principal Defence Specialist (PDS) / Head of Defence Wing, National Security Council Secretariat (July 2006 – November 2015):Responsible for Intelligence handling; formulation of estimates and forecast on regional and global defence and security issues, along with their implications on national security. Assessment of foreign national security strategies / national military strategies / white papers / reviews on conventional military, space, missile and nuclear postures. Periodic review and reconciliation of terrorist infrastructures.

Notes:
1. Shahid-Ur Rehman, Long Road to Chagai: Untold Story of Pakistan’s Nuclear Quest, (Islamabad: Print Wise Publication), 1999
2. 1982 US National Intelligence Estimate; 1993 Report to US Congress on Status of China, India and Pakistan Nuclear and Ballistic Missile Programs.
3. A CIA document No. CIA/Sov/87/10007 of Feb 1987 (declassified in 2000) outlines that between Dec 1979 and 1986, the Soviets spent Rubles 15 billion (or about US$48 billion in 1984 prices), leading former General Secretary Gorbachev to refer to the Afghan involvement as a “bleeding wound” and a “substantial drain on the Soviet economy”. The Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989; in 1991, the USSR broke up, partly due to economic travails.
4. “Pakistan’s Strategic Thinking and the Role of Nuclear Weapons,” Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper 37, July 2004.
5. Naeem Salik, “Minimum Deterrence and India Pakistan Nuclear Dialogue: Case Study on Pakistan,” Landau Network Centro Volta South Asia Security Project Case Study, January 2006
6. Memorandum from Air Commodore Khalid Banuri, Director of Arms Control and Disarmament Affairs in the SPD, received by the US’ Congressional research Service on December 4, 2011.
7. “Tactical Nuclear arms to Ward off War Threat” Pak Foreign Office, October 20, 2015.
8. Report To Congress: Update on Progress toward Regional Nuclear Non-proliferation in South Asia, submitted March 20, 2012.
9. Pakistan’s Nuclear Doctrine, Pakistan Defence Journal, 1999; Heidelberg papers in South Asian & Comparative Politics (Oct 2002)
10. A Conversation With Gen. Khalid Kidwai-2015. “Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference 2015.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. March 23, 2015. http://carnegieendowment.org/files/03-230315carnegieKIDWAI.pdf
11. Pakistan may posture that it has used tactical nuclear weapons against an “aggressor” and that too within Pakistan
12. Shireen Mazari, “Why the Hatf IX (Nasr) is Essential for Pakistan’s Deterrence Posture & Doctrine”; Institute for Strategic Studies, Islamabad. http://ssii.com.pk/str/articles.php?subaction=showfull&id=1353855324&ucat=13&template=Headlines&value1news=value1news&var1news=value1news.
13. “Battlefield Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence Strategies: Phase III”, by the Center on Contemporary Conflict, US Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey; March 2015.
14. Interview to analysts from the US’ Congressional Research Service, on July 14, 2016; CRS Report “Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons”, August 1, 2016.
15. National Institute of Advanced Studies/International Strategic and Security Studies Programme, Bangalore, “Hatf-IX / NASR – Pakistan’s Tactical Nuclear Weapon : Implications for Indo-Pak deterrence”, dated July 2013
16. “Pakistani Nuclear Forces, 2015”; 21 Oct 2015
17. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, “Pakistani Nuclear Forces”, November 2016.
18. National Institute of Advanced Studies/International Strategic and Security Studies Programme, Bangalore, “Hatf-IX / NASR – Pakistan’s Tactical Nuclear Weapon : Implications for Indo-Pak deterrence”, dated July 2013
19. Vincent R. Stewart, Lieutenant General, U.S. Marine Corps Director, Defense Intelligence Agency, Worldwide Threat Assessment, Armed Services Committee, February 9, 2016
20. “Nuclear Weapons: Principles, Effects and Survivability”.
21. Ashley J. Tellis, “India’s Emerging Nuclear Posture: Between Recessed Deterrent and Ready Arsenal”, RAND Corporation, 2001.
22. Michael Krepon, The Stimson Centre, “Pakistan’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons”, April 24, 2012.

Cornell University researchers and a global team of astronomers have uncovered the cosmological source of a sporadically repeating milliseconds-long “fast radio burst.”

Once thinking these bursts had emanated from within the Milky Way galaxy, or from cosmic neighbors, the astronomers now confirm that they are long-distance flashes from across the universe – more than 3 billion light-years away, according to a new report published Jan. 4 in the journal Nature.

“These radio flashes must have enormous amounts of energy to be visible from over 3 billion light-years away,” said lead author Shami Chatterjee, Cornell senior research associate in astronomy. Other Cornell researchers on this paper, “Direct Localization of a Fast Radio Burst and Its Enigmatic Counterpart,” include James Cordes, the George Feldstein Professor of Astronomy; and Robert Wharton, doctoral student in astronomy.

Astronomers appreciate this breakthrough news, Cordes said: “Now we can do real astrophysical analysis on the burst source and the galaxy that harbors it.”

Fast radio bursts, or FRBs, were first seen about 10 years ago. In November 2012, Cornell astronomers using the Arecibo Observatory captured its first FRB – which lasted three one-thousandths of a second. Laura Spitler, discovered it as a postdoctoral researcher sifting through radio telescope data. It was called FRB 121102. Until then, only the Parkes Radio Telescope in New South Wales, Australia, had discovered a handful of previously known FRBs.

Rising just ahead of the winter constellation Orion, FRB 121102 – the one discovered at Arecibo – has a home in the pentagon-shaped constellation Auriga. “There’s a patch of the sky from which we’re getting this signal – and the patch of the sky is arc minutes in diameter. In that patch are hundreds of sources. Lots of stars, lots of galaxies, lots of stuff,” said Chatterjee.

To locate the source of this sporadic flash, astronomers blended detective work with modern telescope technology, while combing through terabytes of data.

The Arecibo radio telescope has a resolution of three arc minutes or about one-tenth of the moon’s diameter, but that is not precise enough to identify uniquely the source. Needing higher resolution to find it, the astronomers sought the help of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory’s Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array, near Socorro, New Mexico, which provided more than 80 hours of observation time. The radio telescope array – a collection of dishes aimed at the cosmos – allows for better than one arc-second resolution.

After 50 fruitless hours of staring, the scientists hit the jackpot. “We caught the fast radio burst in the act,” said Chatterjee.

The astronomers used a full range of telescopes to observe that sliver of sky, including NASA’s Chandra X-ray satellite, Chile’s Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array, and the Gemini optical telescope in Mauna Kea, Hawaii. “With the Gemini telescope, this optical blob looks like a faint, faint, faint galaxy – and this faint, fuzzy blob corresponds with, smack onto, the radio source,” Chatterjee said.

Other telescopes around the world helped to plot the light spectrum. “It’s got a detectable signal of very particular colors of hydrogen, oxygen and other elements – but Doppler-shifted,” said Chatterjee, explaining that the shifting wavelengths denote cosmic expansion and provide clues for the source distance.

The next big question is the nature of the source: What powers these bursts and are there other ones that repeat? “We think it may be a magnetar – a newborn neutron star with a huge magnetic field, inside a supernova remnant or a pulsar wind nebula – somehow producing these prodigious pulses,” said Chatterjee. “Or, it may be an active galactic nucleus of a dwarf galaxy. That would be novel. Or, it may be a combination of those two ideas – explaining why what we’re seeing may be somewhat rare.”

Recent days have brought new reports suggesting that Moscow is about ready to take some dramatic action in Belarus given its displeasure at the behavior of Alyaksandr Lukashenka, but a Minsk analyst says that such conflicts are a built-in feature of the bilateral relationship and predicts that the two sides will find a way out without a sharp break.

After Lukashenka failed to attend a Eurasian Economic Community summit in St. Petersburg at the end of December, the media in Moscow and elsewhere have been full of suggestions that Putin is so angry about the Belarusian leader’s behavior that he may be prepared to take radical moves against him.

Michal Potock, a Polish analyst, wrote this week that the Russian-Belarusian conflict is “intensifying” and involving more and more aspects of the bilateral relationship between the two (gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/1007310,rok-2017-presjarosji-na-bialorus.html; in Russia at charter97.org/ru/news/2017/1/4/236512/).

Arkady Minakov, a historian at Voronezh State University, told the Regnum news agency that “today in Belarus it is possible to observe the very same processes which led to the ‘Maidan’ [in Ukraine] and to all the events there that followed,” an implicit suggestion Moscow might intervene (regnum.ru/news/polit/2224191.html).

And Moscow television is planning a program for January 11 entitled “Who Will Replace Lukashenka?” Its producers have even gone so far as to invite Natalya Radina, the chief editor of the Belarusian opposition portal, Charter 97. She turned them down because she said she feared being arrested in Moscow (charter97.org/ru/news/2017/1/4/236523/).

But Denis Melyantsov, a senior analyst at the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies, says today that such concerns are misplaced because “conflict is at the very foundation of Belarusian-Russian cooperation” and that after the latest round of criticism, the two sides will again find a compromise (thinktanks.by/publication/2017/01/04/denis-melyantsov-bez-konfliktov-s-rossiey-ne-oboydemsya-diplomatiya-skandala-firmennyy-stil.html).

“’Diplomatic scandals’ are the style of communication between Minsk and Moscow as far as the resolution of economic issues is concerned. Therefore one need not consider the current conflict as something extraordinary … Neither Moscow nor Minsk is interested now in the escalation of the conflict and so one way or another a compromise will be found.”

To be sure, Melyantsov says, “Belarusian-Russian tensions always stimulate Minsk’s dialogue with the West, but that doesn’t mean that this is the only motive involved.” And the agenda between Minsk and the EU is now sufficiently broad that it will continue as well even after a Belarusian-Russian agreement.

According to the BISS analyst, it is likely that Belarus and the EU will sign an agreement on simplifying the visa regime between them this year and that the quota on Belarusian textiles will be increased.” Belarus may get more money from the EU, and “also possible are visits at a high level,” something Lukashenka has long wanted and not had.

A controversial paper published two years ago that concluded there was no detectable slowdown in ocean warming over the previous 15 years – widely known as the “global warming hiatus” – has now been confirmed using independent data in research led by researchers from the University of California, Berkeley, and Berkeley Earth, a non-profit research institute focused on climate change.

The 2015 analysis showed that the modern buoys now used to measure ocean temperatures tend to report slightly cooler temperatures than older ship-based systems, even when measuring the same part of the ocean at the same time. As buoy measurements have replaced ship measurements, this had hidden some of the real-world warming.

After correcting for this “cold bias,” researchers with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration concluded in the journal Science that the oceans have actually warmed 0.12 degrees Celsius (0.22 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade since 2000, nearly twice as fast as earlier estimates of 0.07 degrees Celsius per decade. This brought the rate of ocean temperature rise in line with estimates for the previous 30 years, between 1970 and 1999.

This eliminated much of the global warming hiatus, an apparent slowdown in rising surface temperatures between 1998 and 2012. Many scientists, including the International Panel on Climate Change, acknowledged the puzzling hiatus, while those dubious about global warming pointed to it as evidence that climate change is a hoax.

Climate change skeptics attacked the NOAA researchers and a House of Representatives committee subpoenaed the scientists’ emails. NOAA agreed to provide data and respond to any scientific questions but refused to comply with the subpoena, a decision supported by scientists who feared the “chilling effect” of political inquisitions.

The new study, which uses independent data from satellites and robotic floats as well as buoys, concludes that the NOAA results were correct. The paper will be published Jan. 4 in the online, open-access journal Science Advances.

“Our results mean that essentially NOAA got it right, that they were not cooking the books,” said lead author Zeke Hausfather, a graduate student in UC Berkeley’s Energy and Resources Group.

Long-term climate records

Hausfather said that years ago, mariners measured the ocean temperature by scooping up a bucket of water from the ocean and sticking a thermometer in it. In the 1950s, however, ships began to automatically measure water piped through the engine room, which typically is warm. Nowadays, buoys cover much of the ocean and that data is beginning to supplant ship data. But the buoys report slightly cooler temperatures because they measure water directly from the ocean instead of after a trip through a warm engine room.

NOAA is one of three organizations that keep historical records of ocean temperatures – some going back to the 1850s – widely used by climate modelers. The agency’s paper was an attempt to accurately combine the old ship measurements and the newer buoy data.

Hausfather and colleague Kevin Cowtan of the University of York in the UK extended that study to include the newer satellite and Argo float data in addition to the buoy data.

“Only a small fraction of the ocean measurement data is being used by climate monitoring groups, and they are trying to smush together data from different instruments, which leads to a lot of judgment calls about how you weight one versus the other, and how you adjust for the transition from one to another,” Hausfather said. “So we said, ‘What if we create a temperature record just from the buoys, or just from the satellites, or just from the Argo floats, so there is no mixing and matching of instruments?'”

In each case, using data from only one instrument type – either satellites, buoys or Argo floats – the results matched those of the NOAA group, supporting the case that the oceans warmed 0.12 degrees Celsius per decade over the past two decades, nearly twice the previous estimate. In other words, the upward trend seen in the last half of the 20th century continued through the first 15 years of the 21st: there was no hiatus.

“In the grand scheme of things, the main implication of our study is on the hiatus, which many people have focused on, claiming that global warming has slowed greatly or even stopped,” Hausfather said. “Based on our analysis, a good portion of that apparent slowdown in warming was due to biases in the ship records.”

Correcting other biases in ship records

In the same publication last year, NOAA scientists also accounted for changing shipping routes and measurement techniques. Their correction – giving greater weight to buoy measurements than to ship measurements in warming calculations – is also valid, Hausfather said, and a good way to correct for this second bias, short of throwing out the ship data altogether and relying only on buoys.

Another repository of ocean temperature data, the Hadley Climatic Research Unit in the United Kingdom, corrected their data for the switch from ships to buoys, but not for this second factor, which means that the Hadley data produce a slightly lower rate of warming than do the NOAA data or the new UC Berkeley study.

“In the last seven years or so, you have buoys warming faster than ships are, independently of the ship offset, which produces a significant cool bias in the Hadley record,” Hausfather said. The new study, he said, argues that the Hadley center should introduce another correction to its data.

“People don’t get much credit for doing studies that replicate or independently validate other people’s work. But, particularly when things become so political, we feel it is really important to show that, if you look at all these other records, it seems these researchers did a good job with their corrections,” Hausfather said.

Co-author Mark Richardson of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena added, “Satellites and automated floats are completely independent witnesses of recent ocean warming, and their testimony matches the NOAA results. It looks like the NOAA researchers were right all along.”

By Ryan Dagur

Almost 150 lawyers have lent their support to a blasphemy case brought by the Indonesian Catholic Student’s Association against a prominent Muslim hardliner.

The case comes amid another blasphemy controversy involving Jakarta’s Christian governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, better known as Ahok. He is standing trial for allegedly insulting the Quran

Angelo Wake Kako, chairman of the association, told ucanews.com on Jan 3 that the lawyers were not only Catholics but came from other religions as well. “They offered to help us in facing this case,” Kako said.

On Dec 26, the Catholic students reported Muslim cleric Habib Rizieq Syihab to the police for allegedly committing blasphemy in a speech circulated on the internet.

In the 22-second long video, Rizieq is recorded saying, “If God gave birth, then who would be the midwife?”

The statement, which the student’s association took as mocking the birth of Jesus and the Virgin Mary, was delivered during a sermon in West Jakarta on Dec 25 and was followed by laughter from the audience.

The Catholic students also reported two other people, Fauzi Ahmad, who uploaded the video onto Instagram and Saya Reya, who uploaded the video onto Twitter.

Kako said Catholic students felt insulted and hurt by Syihab’s statement, labeling it intolerant of Indonesia’s diversity.

“All Indonesians should respect diversity by not interfering in the private rooms of other religions. Only Christians know about the Christian faith. Anyone who doesn’t know about it better shut up,” Kako said.

Syihab is accused of violating Article 156 section (a) of the Criminal Code on blasphemy; a charge that carries a maximum punishment of five years in prison.

Although articles relating to blasphemy remain controversial, with many parties calling for their removal from the Criminal Code, Kako told ucanews.com that as the article still exists, their case it is legitimate.

In response Syihab issued a statement on his website pointing out that he had hosted interfaith dialogues and that “all religious leaders are satisfied and happy” with his conduct in inter-faith matters.

“Syihab never insulted any religion,” the statement said. “Do not spread slander. Be careful, Muslims can be wrathful and anger can explode.”

Meanwhile, Petrus Selestinus, coordinator of the Catholic student’s legal team, said that by reporting Syihab, the students were performing their duty as a civil society organization.

“This is not an effort to incite enmity between Catholics and Muslims. What they are doing is to help each person respect each other,” Selestinus said.

Franciscan Father Peter C. Aman, lecturer of theology at the Jakarta-based Driyarkara Institute of Philosophy, agrees with the students about the merits of the blasphemy case.

Coming at a time when Christians were celebrating the birth of Christ, Syihab’s comments were deliberately insulting and aimed to harass Christians, Fr. Aman said.

“There is intent to offend the doctrine of the incarnation and the intent to provoke laughter, ” he said.

He added that even if the statement was delivered in the context of Islamic teaching about Jesus Christ, it shouldn’t lead to laughter.

“Is their view, Jesus can be reduced to a laughing stock?,” he said.

By Bilal Hussain

With tensions looming high, there is dwindling hope of cooperation between the water-sharing nations of the Indus Basin. The two nuclear states of South Asia, India and Pakistan, are approaching each other head-on over this water conflict. Many believe that it could lead to another disastrous war, however, a few sane voices are still optimistic.

As the World Bank declared a pause on the Indus water treaty process in order to look into disputes on the Kishanganga (330 megawatts) and Ratle (850 megawatts) hydroelectric plants, India started pitching for bilateral talks for sorting disputes with Pakistan, which as yet seems of no use. In reaction to this, Special Assistant to the Prime Minister of Pakistan Tariq Fatemi has said on record that Pakistan is not going to accept any changes in the Indus Waters Treaty, which was signed in 1960.

In perhaps a related development, China has stopped some water flows to undertake work for a hydropower plant. The move from China comes right after a week of planned Indus deliberations. This is something that India has to keep in mind: China is an upper riparian country on the Indus and Bramhaputra basins, and is also Pakistan’s supporter.

However, better knowledge of the basin can deescalate prevailing tensions. In a recent news report, Professor Shakil Ahmad Romshoo, an expert on the Indus basin, has said that both India and Pakistan are nursing several myths surrounding the treaty. According to Romshoo, India can’t afford to stop the waters of rivers flowing into Pakistan, as it would come at the cost of submerging the Kashmir valley.

While agreeing to the concerns raised by Pakistan time and again, Professor Romshoo believes that water discharges are receding due to the melting of glaciers and global warming. Going deeper, one is astonished that both countries involved in this international water conflict don’t have enough knowledge about the glaciers which form the main source of water for the basin.

Another challenge facing the basin is the non-existence of knowledge-sharing mechanisms between all the riparian countries: Afghanistan, China, India, and Pakistan. However, the Indus Basin Knowledge Platform— developed by the International Water Management Institute through a partnership with the Department for International Development under its South Asia Water Governance Programme— though a small beginning, is an early hope toward filling the knowledge gap between these countries.

On other fronts, in an encouraging move to build cooperation among the Asian nations, Pakistan, China, and Russia are expected to hold talks in Moscow to discuss regional peace and stability, with a focus on Afghanistan.

In yet another significant development that surprised many, Lt. Gen Riaz, Commander of the Pakistan’s Southern Command, invited India to join the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) along with Iran, Afghanistan and other Central Asian countries, and ‘share the fruits of future development by shelving the anti-Pakistan activities and subversion.’

At the same time, an article in the state-run Global Times wrote that New Delhi should consider accepting the olive branch Pakistan has extended in a bid to participate in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Similar to how trade through CPEC is the base for cooperation for countries like China, Pakistan, and now Russia, the Indus basin has the prospects to bring all riparian countries together, as water is the basic need of life.

The time has been reached when all nations have to start working on building long lasting cooperation with each other on multiple levels, on all issues, including the Indus Water Treaty and have to treat each other like good neighbors. The treaty has to stand, as this can be a source for future cooperation between India and Pakistan.

This article was published by Geopolitical Monitor.com

Israel is dizzy. January 20th has been like another Christmas Day and Donald Trump is jolly old Santa Claus bearing gifts. The writing is already on the wall as President-elect Trump has appointed an extremist, David Friedman, as the next US Ambassador to Israel who intends to relocate the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and who supports the expansion of illegal colonies that have already sliced up the envisaged Palestinian state into South Africa-like Bantustans.

Thus, it must be odd, if not altogether provocative, to suggest that a Trump presidency could be the coup de grace that Palestinians and, in fact, the entire Middle East needs to liberate themselves from the weight of an overbearing, arrogant and futile American foreign policy that has extended for decades.

Unmistakably, a Donald Trump presidency is clearly terrible for Palestinians in the short term. The man does not even attempt to show a degree of impartiality or an iota of balance as he approaches the Middle East’s most protracted and delicate conflict.

According to the seemingly infinite stream of his tweets, Trump is counting the days to when he can show Israeli leaders how pro-Israel his administration will be. Shortly after the United States abstained from voting on a United Nations Security Council Resolution 2334 that condemned Israel’s illegal settlements on December 23, the President-elect tweeted, “As to the U.N., things will be different after January 20th.”

Trump took to Twitter once more, shortly before John Kerry delivered a major policy speech on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, where the Secretary of State chastised Israel for jeopardizing the two-state solution and called the current government of Benjamin Netanyahu the most rightwing in Israel’s history.

In his retort, Trump called on Israel to ‘stay strong’ until his inauguration on January 20^th. Israeli leaders are eying the date, too, with the likes of Naftali Bennett, head of the extremist Jewish Home Party, expecting a ‘reset’ of Israeli-US relations once Trump is president.

Furthermore, “we have a chance to reset the structure across the Middle East,” Bennett, who is also Israel’s Minister of Education told journalists last November. “We have to seize that opportunity and act on it,” he said.

One of the impending opportunities presented by the Trump presidency is that “the era of the Palestinian state is over.”

Of course, Kerry is right; the current Israeli government is the most rightwing and most extreme, a trend that will not change any time soon, since it is an accurate reflection of the political and societal mood in the country.

Read how Bennett responded to Kerry’s speech.

“Kerry quoted me three times, anonymously, in his speech in order to demonstrate that we oppose a Palestinian state,” he said, “so let me state it explicitly: Yes. If it depends on me, we will not establish another terror state in the heart of our country.”

As for Kerry’s reiteration that Jerusalem should be a capital for both Israel and Palestine, Bennett responded: “Jerusalem has been the Jewish capital for 3,000 years. That is in the Bible, open it and read.”

The stranglehold of religious zealotry on Israeli politics is irreversible, at least not in the foreseeable future. While, in the past, secular Jewish politicians used religious notions to appeal to religious Jews in exchange for their votes and to populate illegal settlements, it is the religious groups that now set the tone of mainstream Israeli politics.

So how could this benefit Palestinians in any way? Simply put: clarity.

Since mid-level US officials agreed to meet with a Palestine Liberation Organization delegation in Tunisia in the late 1980’s, the US has chosen a most bewildering path of peace-making.

Soon after the US hesitantly ‘engaged’ the PLO – once the latter had to jump through a thousand political hoops to receive the US nod of approval – the US was left alone to define what ‘peace’ between Israel and its Palestinian and Arab neighbors entailed.

The White House set the parameters of the ‘peace process’, corralled Arabs on many occasions to have them rubber-stamp whatever peace ‘vision’ the US found suitable, and divided the Arabs into ‘moderates’ and ‘radicals’ camps, solely based on how a certain country would perceive US dictates of ‘peace’ in the region.

Without any mandate, the US designated itself as an ‘honest peace broker’, yet has done everything wrong to jeopardize the accomplishment of the very parameters that it set to achieve the supposed peace. While it went as far as describing Israel’s illegal settlement construction as ‘obstacle to peace’, Washington funded the settlements and the occupation army entrusted with protecting those illegal entities; it called for ‘confidence building measures’ while, at the same time, bankrolling the Israeli military and justifying Israel’s wars in Gaza and its excessive violence in the Occupied West Bank and Jerusalem.

In other words, for decades, the US has done precisely the exact opposite of what it publicly preached.

The US political schizophrenia is on full display at the moment. While Obama dared to commit the unspeakable in December – as in abstaining from a vote on a resolution that demanded that Israel halt its illegal settlements in the West Bank – only a few weeks earlier, he handed Israel “the largest military aid deal in history.”

The US blind support of Israel throughout the years has increased the latter’s expectations to the point that it now anticipates US support to continue, even when Israel is ruled by extremists who are further destabilizing an already fragile and unstable region.

According to Israeli logic, such expectations are quite rational. The US has served as an enabler to Israel’s political and military belligerence, while pacifying the Palestinians and the Arabs with empty promises, with threats at times, with handouts and with mere words.

The so-called ‘moderate Palestinians’, the likes of Mahmoud Abbas and his Palestinian Authority, were duly pacified, indeed, for they won the trappings of ‘power’, coupled with US political validation, while allowing Israel to conquer whatever remained of Palestine.

But that era is, indeed, over. While the US will continue to enable Israel’s intransigence, a Trump Presidency is likely to witness a complete departure from the Washingtonian doublespeak.

Bad will no longer be good, wrong is not right, and warmongering is not peacemaking. In fact, Trump is set to expose American foreign policy for what it truly is, and has been for decades. His presidency is likely to give all parties a stark choice regarding where they stand on peace, justice and human rights.

The Palestinians, too, will have to make a choice, face the decades-long reality with a united front, or side with those who intend to ‘reset’ the future of the Middle East based on a dark interpretation of biblical prophecies.

By Terri Moon Cronk

US-led coalition airstrikes in Iraq and Syria targeting the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant have recently killed several prominent leaders of that organization, Air Force Col. John Dorrian, Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve spokesman, said Wednesday during a news briefing.

Speaking to Pentagon reporters via teleconference from Baghdad, Dorrian said precision coalition airstrikes in Mosul and other areas around Iraq have continued attacking ISIL leaders who facilitate and command and control the terrorist network.

“The latest examples are three ISIL facilitators and terrorist leaders from occupied cities,” he said, confirming the deaths of Ahmad Abdullah Hamad al-Mahalawi, Abu Turq, and Falah al-Rashidi.

“Al-Rishidi, struck on Dec. 4 in Mosul, [Iraq,] was an ISIL leader who was involved in ISIL’s use of [vehicle bombs] in Mosul,” Dorrian said. “His removal further degrades ISIL’s [vehicle bomb] threat, which has been the enemy’s weapon of choice for attacking Iraqi security forces and civilians.”

Al-Mahalawi, the spokesman said, was struck Dec. 21 in Qaim, Iraq, and was a “legacy” al-Qaida in Iraq member serving as an ISIL leader in Qaim. “His removal will disrupt ISIL’s ability to conduct operations along the Euphrates River Valley,” the colonel said. “This is significant because as ISIL continues to lose population centers, they want to transition toward spoiler attacks in the outlying areas of Iraq and Syria. The loss of Mahalawi degrades ISIL’s ability to make that transition.”

Abu Turq was killed Dec. 4 in Sharqat, Iraq. Dorrian described him as an ISIL financial facilitator in Qanfusah, Iraq — about 50 miles southwest of Irbil — who had connections to ISIL leaders and ensured money reached the terrorist group.

“He was killed by an airstrike while fighting from a rooftop position in Sharqat, where he and several other fighters were moving a heavy weapon to fire upon partner forces. His removal increases pressure on the ISIL financial network, which is already severely disrupted by several hundred strikes on oil infrastructure and bulk cache sites,” he said.

In Syria, more than 100 airstrikes have occurred in the Tabqa Dam area, about 25 miles west of Raqqa, killing many ISIL fighters, including Abu Jandal al-Kuwaiti, Dorrian said, adding, “Kuwaiti, a prominent foreign fighter and leader, had been sent to improve ISIL’s control in the region in the face of [the Syrian Democratic Forces’] advance.”

ISIL Unable To Replace Fighters, Supplies

Overall, the spokesman said, the coalition-backed battles to regain Raqqa, Syria and Mosul, Iraq from ISIL control have weakened thee enemy’s ability to bring in replacement fighters and supplies.

“In Syria, [the SDF], led by their Syrian Arab Coalition, are continuing their advance to isolate Raqqa along two axes, supported by coalition forces, providing advice and assistance, and coalition air power delivering counter-ISIL strikes to Raqqa’s north and west,” the colonel said.

Since this phase began Dec. 9, the SDF have liberated more than 500 square miles of Syrian land, home to tens of thousands of people who have been brutalized by ISIL’s rule, Dorrian said.

“Coalition airstrikes removed a significant number of ISIL fighters, more than 70 vehicles, and 200 fortifications from the battlefield. This degrades ISIL’s ability to maneuver and defend the occupied cities,” he added.

And recovering the Tabqa Dam from ISIL will return Syria’s largest dam to its people, Dorrian noted, helping them reclaim their homes and liberty.

“We’re working with our SDF partners to ensure the dam is effectively and safely recovered,” he said. “ISIL has used the dam as a headquarters, a prison for high-profile hostages, and a training and indoctrination area for leaders since they seized control of it in 2013. Loss of this key terrain will damage the enemy’s prospects and legitimacy as they continue to lose territory.”

Fight in Mosul Stepped Up

Iraqi forces have made significant progress since beginning phase two of their operation to liberate Mosul on Dec. 29, Dorrian noted.

In this phase, Iraqi forces synchronize simultaneous attacks from three axes into the city, with elements of the Iraqi Counterterrorism Service, the Iraqi Army and the Iraqi Federal Police conducting the operation, he explained.

“What we’re finding is that the synchronized attacks present the enemy with more problems than they can solve, and the Iraqi security forces are making progress with the continued benefit of coalition strikes and advisers, Dorrian said. “The axes are beginning to converge as the Iraqis make progress toward the Tigris [River].”

By Danijel Kovacevic

In the light of worries that within a few decades the Bosnian Serb entity could be left without many able-bodied citizens, the RS Employers’ Union has asked for an emergency session of the Republika Srpska government and assembly on population policies.

The union says one measure to stimulate demography could be to tax unmarried men and women, which would encourage more people to marry and so increase the birth rate.

The union said it needs to figure it out who would be taxed and at what rate, and whether the tax would be the same for all age groups, but it said they were working on the details.

“This is the biggest national problem of Republika Srpska. This requires broader social action and so we expect an urgent response from the highest institutions of the RS,” Sasa Acic, union president, told BIRN.

“We will initiate our conclusions, which will be forwarded to the government of the RS, the National Assembly and the President of the Republic, and that, ultimately, will solve the problem,” he added.

According to the union, the RS stands to lose some 100,000 able-bodied citizens – almost 10 per cent of its overall population – in the next five years.

Unemployment will fall as the remaining labour force ages. The downside is that there will be fewer people left to work.

“Ten years from now, the RS will be forced to import labour,” demographer Stevo Pasalic told BIRN.

The negative birth rate is another reason for the reduced size of the working-age population. According to statistics, in less than two years, the RS population fell by 10,761 people, which is the difference between the number of newborn babies and deceased people.

Most economists dismiss the idea of a tax on singles but agree that the outward emigration of young workers is a big issue.

“Unfortunately, economic parameters indicate that Bosnian citizens will only live a better life if they leave the country,” economist Zoran Pavlovic told BIRN.

The RS government has not yet responded to the Employers’ Union request.

“We will say more when we receive their official request but I don’t think that taxing singles or couples without children is a plausible option,” a source from the government told BIRN.

The “singles tax” idea is not new. Some two years ago, RS president Milorad Dodik proposed the same thing, but it never got much support.

Many of those who would be affected by this proposal find it deeply disturbing.

“I find it very insulting – what if somebody can’t have a child?” Banja Luka resident Goran, who has been trying to have a baby with his wife for years, told BIRN.

“This entire concept is wrong. If they are worried that workers are leaving for abroad, why not raise salaries and keep them here?” Goran asked.

Another Banja Luka resident, Dragan said: “I am divorced – twice. So I think I have paid enough already.

“If they insist on a tax, I will marry for the third time. My friends already call me ‘Lord of the rings’, so why not buy another wedding ring?” Dragan added with a smile.
– See more at: http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/republika-srpska-ponders-taxes-on-singles-to-boost-demography-01-04-2017#sthash.Er0pvrTz.dpuf

(EurActiv) — Eurozone countries should retreat from the euro single currency and return to a “common currency” structure, French National Front leader Marine Le Pen said on Wednesday (4 January), evoking the era of the ECU basket of currencies.

Speaking to Reuters after a New Year news conference, Le Pen, who hopes to be elected president of France in May, also said that French national debt would be denominated in a new national currency under her administration.

Le Pen has long said that France should exit the euro currency, but in the past has offered little detail about how that could happen.

“The ECU existed alongside a national currency,” Le Pen said. “A national currency co-existing with a common currency would not have any consequences on the French’s daily life,” she added.

“A ‘monetary snake’ is something that appears reasonable,” she said – a reference to the ‘snake in the tunnel’ system introduced in the 1970s to limit fluctuations between European currencies.

The ECU was a basket of European currencies used as a unit of account by members of the bloc in the two decades leading up to the introduction of the single currency in 1999.

It existed in parallel with the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) which attempted to narrow fluctuations between the currencies of member states.

Le Pen’s deputy Florian Philippot said this monetary cooperation with other European countries did not represent a change in the leader’s view that France should regain monetary sovereignty.

“A currency following the ECU model is not a currency you have in your wallet or your bank account, it’s an accounting currency between countries,” he said.

“It could be a model, maybe even a transitory one,” he added.

Another top official, Nicolas Bay, said that after simply stating that the euro did not work currently, the far-right party was now in a “second phase” of explaining how to make the system work.

National Front economist Jean-Richard Sulzer said the new system the party advocates would have fixed exchange rates but allow “rare” adjustments. “Rates should be fixed but adjustable,” he said.

“The exchange rate would not float every morning like before the ECU because it created huge instability for our exporters.”

Opinion polls have consistently shown Le Pen making it to the second round of the presidential election but losing that run-off to a mainstream candidate, likely to be conservative Francois Fillon.

By Sebastián Puig and Ángel Sánchez*

Italy has been the focus of Europe’s woes over the past few weeks. The outcome of its constitutional referendum on 4 December caused much nervousness in the markets and renewed concerns about the future of the EU. A number of analysts predicted a continental cataclysm if Prime Minister Matteo Renzi were to fail in his attempt to implement a set of reforms that ultimately would reduce the powers of the Senate and grant the Government much more power and freedom of manoeuvre to tackle Italy’s main structural challenges: the troubles with the Italian banking sector, the rise of Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement and the real risk of permanent political and economic stagnation.

Finally, Renzi lost his personal bid for the planned reforms and resigned. In his place, Italy’s President Sergio Matarella proposed Paolo Gentiloni, who has won the support of both chambers of Parliament. It has turned out that the Ministers in the ‘new’ government appointed by Gentiloni are almost the same as Renzi’s cabinet. All are committed to a very similar ‘new’ agenda, full of the usual ‘new’ great expectations. Meanwhile, markets have barely bounced. A key issue should be borne in mind: Renzi is the fifth consecutive Italian Prime Minister to resign, after Prodi, Berlusconi, Monti and Letta. Everything seems to change in order to remain the same: Italian business as usual.

At 1,373 km from Italy, Spain seems to be following a different course. Despite the Spanish Popular Party not having an absolute majority in Parliament, the former Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy managed to be invested for a second term and formed a new Government, relying on concrete agreements with other parties to achieve much-needed stability for the country. Good macro indicators support Rajoy’s position: GDP is forecast to achieve a remarkable 3.2% growth in 2016, the unemployment rate is still high but declining steadily, consumption has improved and exports are consistently beating expectations. The two different country trends are reflected in the bond market yield curves shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Spanish and Italian 10-year bond yields

Source: European Commission and the authors.

Taking into account these apparent divergences, it is worth analysing the socio-economic trends in Italy and Spain. Ultimately the aim is to find out whether Spain’s better performance is structural or merely temporary. A closer look at the evolution of key indicators in both countries may help better understand transalpine realities.¹

Demographics

The main factor that distinguishes Italian from Spanish demographics is migration. The immigration boom and bust that occurred in Spain, especially since the beginning of the 21st Century, did not take place in Italy. The impact on population growth was substantial, as shown in Figure 2.

Although the population aged over 65 increased at the same rate in both countries, the Spanish immigration boom helped rejuvenate the demographic base. As shown in Figure 3, that did not happen in Italy.

These trends finally resulted in clearly different aging rates (see Figure 4). In other words, Italy has a worse demographic structure than Spain, a fact that could weigh heavily on the country’s future.

Employment

Demographic features have a strong impact on employment. Figure 5 shows how the activity rate in Spain has grown considerably, finishing seven points above Italy’s. And although Italy has significantly less unemployment than Spain (11.5% versus 19.7%), its employment rate is forecast to become lower, meaning that more Italians than Spaniards will stop looking for work.

The active population grew in Spain due to the immigration inflows mentioned above, as well as to the higher female labour-force participation rate. From 1990 to 2014 female participation has risen from 34% to 53% in Spain and from 35% to only 40% in Italy (see World Bank data). Hence, although there is a much lower unemployment rate in Italy, the latter’s inactivity rate is much higher than Spain’s. To complete the picture, it is also worth noting that the average hours worked per employee in both countries have converged in the lower range. Therefore, putting all these factors together, it can be concluded that Spanish labour market now appears to be in a better shape than its Italian counterpart.

Growth

While Italy is the world’s ninth largest economy in GDP PPP terms (with Spain in 14th place), its poor growth is undoubtedly its sword of Damocles. It has consistently underperformed compared with the rest of the euro area during the past three decades, a trend which started long before the introduction of the euro and has deteriorated in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

The graphs in Figure 7 show the comparison between Spanish and Italian GDP growth. While in annual terms the difference could seem somewhat limited, the contrast between cumulative growths is significant: 50% since 1997 in Spain versus 10% in Italy. Moreover, according to EU forecasts, in 2018 Spain will surpass Italy in per capita GDP (in PPP terms) for the first time ever.

Trade

No doubt Italy, the world’s 10th largest exporter in 2015 (while Spain was only 18th), stands out as a manufacturer and seller of high-quality goods, especially in the luxury market; the Italy brand has been a key factor in the relative resilience showed by transalpine exports during the crisis. However, demand in Italy’s export destinations has grown less than world trade, causing the country to lose market share in world exports. At the same time, Spain’s share in global trade has remained relatively stable, although at a lower level.

When it comes to bilateral trade, Spain is maintaining its share in Italian imports (at around 5%), whereas Italy has been progressively losing quota in the Spanish market.

Public debt and deficit

Another significant source of concern in Italy is its public debt, now close to 140% of GDP, a disturbing level mainly caused by the country’s poor GDP growth. In overall volume, it is the second-largest public debt among Eurozone countries and the fourth-largest worldwide. By contrast, the Spanish public debt ratio, which is approaching 100% of GDP, grew faster during the crisis but still remains far from the Italian level.

As for public deficit, the charts in Figure 11 reflect how Italy’s deficit has not been subject to significant variations despite the changes in the economic cycle. The country exited the EU’s Excessive Deficit Procedure in 2012, keeping the figure below 3% since then. In contrast, the evolution of Spain’s fiscal balance has been much more dramatic and difficult to control. Similarly, Italy has been consistently running moderate primary surpluses, but insufficient to reduce its large debt, while Spain is improving but still struggling to reach its pre-crisis level, mainly achieved through a huge real-estate bubble.

According to the EU, Italy only implemented solid fiscal adjustments in 2012 and 2013, and it is now urging the Italian government to undertake important economic and structural reforms.

Net international investment position

The comparison in this area shows a striking difference between the two countries. Spain is more indebted to the world than Italy. Since the introduction of the euro, both countries’ net foreign assets declined, but much more dramatically in the Spanish case. Spain has finally managed to reduce its large current account deficit and has recently shifted to external surpluses, which has been sufficient to stabilise and slowly reduce its net external indebtedness, which is, however, still far worse than Italy’s.

In conclusion

What the Figures above show is two countries with different dynamics. While Italy is still more economically powerful than Spain, it displays more structural imbalances and declining trends. There is a greater demographic problem in Italy than in Spain. Key labour indicators are worse in Italy too, despite its lower headline unemployment. Italy, once a manufacturing powerhouse, is also experiencing weaker external competitiveness and is losing global market share. Finally, Italy’s very low growth performance could jeopardise its global geo-economic position and become a heavy burden for future generations.

Spain seems to be currently in a better position than Italy to undertake its own pending reforms. However, Spaniards should pay much more attention to the Italian situation, because it is, in several ways, a future mirror of what could happen to Spain if it gets swept up in conformism and a false sense of euphoria. In an increasingly globalised and competitive world, this is no time to brag, but to work even harder. Quoting Frederick Douglas (1818-1895), ‘if there is no struggle, there is no progress’.

*About the authors:
Sebastián Puig, Analyst, European External Action Service | @Lentejitas

Ángel Sánchez,Professor of Macroeconomics, UNED | @_combarro_

Source:
This article was published by Elcano Royal Institute

Notes:
1 The graphs are based on historical data and the latest European Commission forecasts.

When President Barack Obama celebrated his election as US President eight years ago by making a speech of high promise in front of a huge crowd in Chicago, the US and the world was led to believe that he would emerge as a President who will be remembered just like George Washington or Abraham Lincoln.

When President Obama deliver his farewell speech on January 10 before almost the same crowd that he addressed eight years back in Chicago, people will inevitably introspect on what he promised eight years back in Chicago and what he has achieved now. It appears that a feeling of disappointment would be inevitable.

Premature Nobel peace prize

When President Obama assumed office in the first term, he was awarded a Nobel Prize for world peace even before he could show any initiative of far reaching significance towards world harmony. Many were surprised when President Obama was conferred with the Nobel prize and they were even more surprised when President Obama readily accepted the Nobel Prize, with no tangible achievements to claim towards the cause of world peace. Certainly, President Obama lost a bit of shine while receiving the Nobel peace prize.

Not different from other Presidents in foreign relations

In shaping the relations with other countries, just like other past US presidents, President Obama was more concerned about the US interests than the fairness of the policy.

This approach may not be wrong for a US President, but Mr. Obama’s claim as an advocate of world peace fell flat, considering his approach to several issues, the most recent being in the case of Syria, where the US has almost openly aided and supported the rebels in a variety of ways including by providing arms and ammunition. Thousands of lives have been lost in Syria due to the conflict in recent period.

President Obama has not been able to handle the Islamic State terrorists or bring peace and stability in Iraq and Afghanistan where the USA intervened earlier to protect its interests, rather than the interests of Iraq and Afghanistan. As far as the US involvement in these two countries are concerned, the situation today is almost similar to the one that prevailed when President Obama assumed office eight years back.

At the end of the term, particularly during the recent presidential election, President Obama accused Russia of playing a role in hacking and attempting to influence the presidential poll. Some people think that President Obama’s recent sanctions against Russia were ill-conceived and a case of over-reaction. It appears that President-elect Trump will take a second look at President Obama’s handling of Russia.

Racial conflicts

The unfortunate development during President Obama’s term is the increased racial attacks in US and the suspicions and misgivings that have developed between the blacks and the whites.

President Obama could not contribute effectively to create a feeling of harmony and amity in this context. On the other hand, during the recent Presidential election, he even asked Blacks Americans to be conscious of their problems and race and appealed to them not to vote for Mr. Trump. This certainly harmed President Obama’s image as a person with statesman-like attributes.

Unfair treatment to the Dalai Lama

When President Obama received the venerable the Dalai Lama through the back door in his White House recently, to ensure that China would not be displeased, many started doubting President Obama’s courage of conviction.

The likely announcement by Philippine President Duterte of the Scarborough Shoal as an environmental marine sanctuary and off limits to fishermen could prove to be the first incremental step towards defusing the South China Sea disputes and in the process endow considerable strategic advantages to Beijing.

By P K Ghosh PhD*

One of the most sensitive potential international flashpoints in the world — the turbulent South China Sea — was witness to a significant development which largely went unnoticed but may reduce the prevailing tension in the region. For some it may even sow the seeds of a long-term solution to this intensely complex imbroglio, though an incremental one.

On 12 Jul 2016, the Arbitration Court at the Hague had ruled with the damning verdict against China in a case brought about by the Philippines. Manila had lodged the suit against Beijing in 2013, saying that after 17 years of negotiations it had exhausted all political and diplomatic avenues to resolve the issue. The International Arbitral Court had concluded amongst others that “there was no legal basis for China to claim historic rights” within the sea areas falling within China’s ‘nine-dash line’ which essentially claimed nearly 80% of the South China Sea.

The Philippine Turnaround

With no effective or available mechanism to enforce its verdict and with Beijing vehemently opposed to the arbitration proceeding, the ruling did little to either stabilise the situation or reduce the prevailing tension. Even the Philippines chose not to celebrate the stunning legal victory as was the case with other claimant countries.

While there were numerous calls from the international community for adherence to the ruling, Beijing ignored these pleas and was persistent in its policies of militarisation and reclamation of geographical features in the South China Sea, causing continual alarm to the littoral states in the process.

However, in an astonishing move aimed at reversing Philippine foreign policy the Philippines’ new president Rodrigo Duterte chose to place the verdict on the back burner and opted to befriend Beijing while admonishing the long-time ally the United States for what he termed hypocrisy and bullying. The new president obviously calculated that taking a less confrontational approach with Beijing on the South China Sea dispute would help him secure the much-needed aid from them — and his calculations were not off the mark. In October 2016 Duterte visited Beijing in an effort to mend fences and boost trade.

While the two countries signed several deals worth nearly US$13.5 billion on trade and agreed to cooperate on various issues including tourism, anti-narcotics and maritime trade, the most significant, however, is the two countries agreeing to seek “settlement through bilateral dialogue” on the South China Sea issue, a stance consistent with the Chinese view.

So What’s The Big Deal?

The South China Sea dispute between Beijing and Manila concerns sovereignty, namely, maritime boundaries and is closely connected to the lives of ordinary fishermen from both sides, who rely on fishing for survival. Thus, fishing rights around Scarborough Shoal is one of the several contentious issues since 2012. China had deployed its Coast Guard to block the shoal from Filipinos, despite being only about 100 nautical miles away from Philippine coast and located well within its 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone. However, after the Duterte visit to Beijing, Filipino fishermen are now being allowed to fish near the resource-rich Scarborough Shoal (Huangyan) Island.

After this important development which signified a softening of the Chinese stand and a willingness to negotiate it has now been informed that President Duterte will soon issue an executive order declaring part of the disputed Scarborough Shoal a marine sanctuary off-limits to all fishermen, a move his office said was supported by his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

Thus Duterte is expected to make a unilateral declaration barring fishermen from exploiting marine life at a tranquil lagoon that was central to years of bitter squabbling, and the basis of an arbitration case brought and won by the Philippines. Undoubtedly it will also bring strong criticism from his own constituency of fishermen. But as the larger picture emerges the various nuances of this move become clear from both sides.

Staunch environmentalist and former president Fidel Ramos, who in August 2016 broke the ice with Beijing as Duterte’s special envoy, said a marine sanctuary was the right move and was “the highest form of aquaculture preservation”.

Killing Many Birds with One Stone

With this move both the Philippines and China have killed many birds with one stone. Although Manila won the arbitration case at The Hague, Duterte avoided a chest-thumping stance so as encourage Beijing towards a compromise. China had come under sharp criticism for causing environmental losses especially in the Spratlys while enlarging and creating artificial islands. This had affected its image as a leading developing country upholding the environmental cause of the world. With this move it has shown its support for environmental causes.

Secondly it has, at the strategic level, proved to the world that bilateral talks may well be the way forward in “solving” the South China Sea and not the legal arbitration route as has been reiterated by the international community.

Admittedly, the move to declare the disputed areas as a sanctuary had been suggested many times earlier by scholars for reducing the regional tensions and as a natural de-escalatory measure. It was first suggested by Vietnamese and Philippine scientists of the Joint Oceanographic Marine Scientific Research Expedition (JOMSRE) who had proposed a Marine Transborder Peace Park in the disputed areas. This is consonant with UNCLOS but the effort to expand and include China and Laos failed, leading to a collapse of the initiative.

With the initiative now taking root, China has not only calmed the most vociferous claimant – Philippine, but also got them round to its point of view. In addition Beijing has also shown that it could get around observance of the international legal system, the verdict and yet produce the desired end result. However, it remains to be seen whether by this act, the South China Sea disputes may well be on the road to resolution, albeit incrementally, since after all it is peace and stability which is the primary aim of the all stakeholders.

*P K Ghosh PhD is a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), India. He contributed this to RSIS Commentary.

The 7 December 2016 earthquake that struck Aceh was the closest repeat of the infamous 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake that struck the very same province of Indonesia. Thankfully, fewer lives were lost due to vastly improved warning procedures. There are some practical solutions to cope with the ephemerality of quake-prone housing zones.

By Tamara Nair and Alan Chong*

In a deadly encore to the December 2004 earthquake that struck the Southeast Asian portions of the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire, a magnitude 6.5 temblor struck the very same province of Aceh on Indonesia’s Sumatra Island on 7 December 2016. The death toll was reported in the media to be a grand total of 103, with some 932 people being injured and 88,133 persons displaced from their homes. This was a far cry from the human losses in 2004. But the more urgent signal for observers and officials studying humanitarian relief governance is the fact that within a space of 12 years, the physical buildings that had replaced those felled in 2004 had been decimated by nature once again.

A spokesperson for BASARNAS, the Indonesian National Disaster Management Agency, reminded the world that 148 million Indonesians, or more than half its population, live in quake-prone areas. Subsequent situation reports generated by BASARNAS and the ASEAN Humanitarian Coordination Centre up till the 12th day of the aftermath point to the fact that the most immediate palliative task lay in building temporary homes and other shelters.

A Sense of Home, a Sense of Place

The 7 December earthquake’s principal effect is the trigger of large-scale displacement from homes. This sketch poses one salient contention for observers of humanitarian disaster relief: one cannot thwart the recurrence of earthquakes but might one not design measures to mitigate the loss of homes? We offer two suggestions for a forward looking and practical home restoration plan in the aftermath of the next quake.

It is often taken for granted that home is where the heart is. A physical expression of home features fixtures and decorations that attest to a family’s varied personalities. Additionally, in coastal communities or rural areas across the world, people are not only attached to their own homes but also homes of their families and community members that share the same lived experiences as them. It is not uncommon to find family members eating, sleeping or working together in each other’s homes within their ‘space’.

In such areas the sense of home and family are much stronger and rooted to the land. Recovery in distant areas in the event of natural calamities, away from a familiar sense of place and community, prolongs suffering and makes it difficult for victims to move forward in life. Their social, economic, and oftentimes, spiritual fabric is tattered.

Living in temporary shelters, most likely tents or various undisturbed buildings or structures, does little to build resilience in these communities. The sense of loss is also directly proportional to the length of the recovery process, how long before they return to some sense of normalcy? In many cities across the globe a home is a fixed asset into which one invests savings, time, and memories. In an earthquake-prone zone such as Aceh, it might be possible to creatively re-conceive the idea of a home that is mobile while also integrating the utilities, memories and the sentimentality of a lived experience.

Pre-Fabricated and Mobile Housing

The pre-fabricated housing solution is one possibility worth looking at. Here we see the potentiality of private sector involvement in humanitarian assistance. There are plenty of these companies that operate across Asia’s booming economies, from India to China. R.S. Company, of Haryana, India for instance specialises in manufacturing mobile toilets, schools, and steel structures. The company boasts successful projects across six states in India and proudly proclaims on its website that ‘prefab’ structures offer flexibility, durability and lightweight construction.

The advantage of constructed homes of this modality is that they can be vacated at short notice and replaced quickly in the context of post-disaster clean-up. There is also significant logistical potential for trucking these prefab homes to safe areas whenever a pre-emptive earthquake warning might be issued. Of course there is disruption to one’s sense of place but to be able to live in one’s own home, where the ability to lock one’s door and see a roof over one’s head gives a sense of security and a hope that disruptions to one’s life will be righted soon.

With very little overhead costs, existing prefab housing manufacturers might be encouraged by government funds to offer a wheel or rail assisted version of their existing prefab homes. By rendering homes as ‘mobile assets’, the destruction visited by earthquakes could be minimised. In tandem, residents must be prepared to reinvent their attachment to a physical home for the sake of ‘earthquake-proofing’.

Floating Houses and Nomadic Survival

A longer shot solution – though by no means feasible in tsunami-prone coastal areas – is to adopt the structure of a floating home that can be towed out to non-earthquake prone water bodies upon pre-emptive warnings being issued. Boat houses, decommissioned floating homes and wheeled caravans have been the fashion in many riverine and coastal cities in both the Global North and Global South. These can surely be invoked to cope with the recurrence of damage to physical structures wrought by earthquakes.

More recently, the Dutch architect Koen Olthuis has been celebrated as the innovator of a new ‘design language’: constructing floating buildings to enable coastal centres to cope with rising sea levels. In an eco-friendly demonstration project scheduled for completion next year, offshore from Korail Bosti, Bangladesh’s largest slum, Olthuis will showcase a viable home adapted from a modified cargo container fastened upon a floating foundation of plastic bottles salvaged from recycling collections.

This is obviously more than an architectural statement; it is ‘green’ engineering. It could potentially offer a climate-friendly way of mitigating earthquake destruction if affected populations are willing to adopt the time-honoured practice of people voluntarily displacing themselves to either stay away from nature’s wrath, or to seek temporarily greener pastures. All this in the name of intelligent survival in the new millennium.

*Tamara Nair is Research Fellow at the Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies, and Alan Chong is Associate Professor at the Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS), both in the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

A law effectively putting an end to Swiss banking secrecy has come into force.

From the beginning of January, a new international law that introduced the automatic exchange of bank data means foreign citizens with accounts in Switzerland can expect previously secret information to be shared with their home tax authorities, and vice versa. It’s a deal that’s been agreed in principle with around 100 countries, although the United States is notably missing.

However, it was under pressure from the US that the first cracks in Swiss banking secrecy appeared. Since 2009, Swiss banks have paid billions in fines for enabling Americans to evade taxes.

The US Justice authorities started clamping down on American tax evaders hiding cash in Swiss accounts almost a decade ago.

The trial of an alleged Islamic State fighter accused of scouting for potential extremist targets in Berlin opened in the German capital on Wednesday under heavy security.

Prosecutors say the 19-year-old Syrian-born man, identified as Shaas Al M, examined sites such as the major shopping district of Alexanderplatz, the German capital’s landmark Brandenburg Gate and the area near the Reichstag parliamentary building. All three sites are also major tourist magnets.

The man, who has been in detention since March, is charged with being a member of a foreign extremist organization as well as the violation of war weapons laws.

Prosecutors said there was no evidence of any concrete plans or preparations for an attack.

However, Al M “informed his contacts in Islamic State about the potential targets,” according to a court statement.

“Furthermore, he had arranged to send at least one person to Syria as a fighter and offered himself as contact person for possible attackers in Germany,” the court said.

The accused arrived in Germany in 2015 amid a surge of refugees fleeing conflict in Syria and elsewhere.

Prior to his arrival in Germany, the defendant participated in Daesh military operations in Syria, the court said. In addition, he was responsible for supplying food to the group’s troops.

His trial comes two weeks after an attack on a crowded Christmas market in the city in which 12 people were killed and about 50 were injured. Daesh claimed responsibility for that attack.

Original source