Quantcast
Channel: Eurasia Review
Viewing all 73722 articles
Browse latest View live

The Trouble With Trump’s ‘Alternative Facts’– OpEd

$
0
0

About an hour after Donald Trump was sworn in, I was having lunch with my wife and our five-month-old. As we picked at our food outside my office in D.C.’s Dupont Circle neighborhood, groups of tourists trickled by in Trump regalia.

Early the next morning, as I dumped a pail of diapers in the trash can out front, I ran into a much different crowd: throngs of people wearing pink and carrying anti-Trump signs, passing through my neighborhood on their way to the Women’s March.

It was scarcely 7am, yet already I’d seen more pink hats than I’d seen red ones the day before. Surprised — and still in my pajama pants — I scurried inside.

DC’s Women’s March alone attracted three times as many visitors as Trump’s inauguration, crowd experts quoted by The New York Times estimate. According to ridership data from the DC Metro system, only one other event topped it: Barack Obama’s inauguration in 2009.

This was obvious to anyone who lives here, and to anyone who’s seen aerial photos of the crowd.

Of course, whose crowd is bigger matters only a little more than whose hands are bigger, among other appendages Trump likes to size up. But sometimes he can’t help himself.

At a moment you’d expect a new president to be busy with other things, Trump directed his press secretary to announce that his crowds had been “the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration, period.” Any media outlet that told you differently, he said, was lying.

It was laughably untrue. But it wasn’t a lie, Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway told NBC. It was just an an “alternative fact.”

If that doesn’t set your Orwell alarm off, I don’t know what will. Yet almost immediately, Trump’s version of events started circulating through conservative news sites and social media outlets.

The Trump administration, in short, used its inaugural press conference to tell bald-faced, easily falsifiable lies — and many Americans believed them. Aerial photos, crowd experts, Metro data, even TV ratings be damned — all that mattered were the “alternative facts” of the Trump team.

There’s more at stake here than a “whose is bigger?” contest — including for millions of Trump supporters. To see how, let me tell you something else about Trump’s first day in office.

Shortly after announcing that “every decision” will be “made to benefit American workers and American families,” Trump retreated to the Oval Office to sign his first directives as president.

The first raised mortgage fees for working families, including many who probably supported Trump. Another began the process of dismantling a health care law that’s helped 20 million people get insurance.

Trump voters in red states could be especially hard-hit.

From Florida to Pennsylvania, in fact, over 6 million people getting health insurance subsidies live in states that Trump won. Combined with the law’s Medicaid expansion and protections for people with pre-existing conditions, that’s helped deep-red states like Kentucky and West Virginia cut their uninsured rates by half.

But here’s the question: If Trump can tell you your own eyes are lying about a simple aerial photograph of his inauguration, can he also convince you your mortgage fees didn’t just go up? Or that you’ll still have health care after he axes your subsidy and gives your insurer permission to drop you?

Talk about “alternative facts.” If those things slide, what else can he get away with?

Trump voters are famously skeptical of Washington. Of all people, I hope they’d agree that watching what a politician does tells you more than hearing what he says. If they shut their eyes now, they’re going to get sucker punched.

Peter Certo is the editorial manager of the Institute for Policy Studies and the editor of OtherWords.org, where this article was published.


Trump Era Unfolds: Why World On Edge After His Rampage Of Orders – Analysis

$
0
0

By Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty

While speculation ran wild on how US President Donald Trump would translate his egregious campaign promises into action, no one was sure how the Trump administration would deal with important national and international issues.

He is slowly and surely revealing his hand.

Trump need no longer be considered a riddle wrapped up in an enigma. We are now getting a jolting glimpse of his policy roadmap. He issued 10 executive orders after assuming office – on sensitive issues ranging from immigration, the border wall, healthcare and trade.

Immigration Control

Trump’s action on immigration controls has led to chaotic scenes at American airports, with confused officials blocking entry of travellers, subsequent to Trump signing an Executive Order (EO) to deny entry to travellers from designated countries in West Asia and North Africa, all majority Muslim countries.

The EO also introduced stringent and restrictive measures on admitting refugees, mostly from Muslim countries. Trump has also named Afghanistan, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia as countries whose citizens will face more rigorous vetting for issue of visa, because these countries have terrorist networks operating on their territories or support terrorist organisations.

There has been pushback from the American public, industry and courts. Hollywood, academia and IT majors like Google, Facebook, and Microsoft, have all criticised the EO. Demonstrators have poured out into the streets protesting against the new regulations.

Read Also | What Obama has wrought

Several federal court judges have stayed the provisions of the EO that blocked entry to Green Card holders and travellers holding valid entry visas. This has eased the confusion, panic and chaos at airports.

International reaction has been adverse, though stray right wing groups in Europe and Australia have supported Trump’s move and demanded similar restrictions on Muslims trying to enter their countries.

Other Executive Actions

The executive actions taken by Trump since entering office are derived from the “Contract with the American Voter” blueprint, released last October, outlining Trump’s vision for his first 100 days in office.

So far, Trump has signed Executive Orders to construct the border wall with Mexico, speed up deportation of illegal aliens – promises he made repeatedly during his campaign.

These orders direct recruitment of extra personnel, thus creating more government jobs.

On economic and commercial issues, Trump has ordered a review of regulations that have a bearing on manufacturing licences, use of American-made steel in pipelines, speeding up environmental review of infrastructure projects, including gas and oil pipelines, freezing federal jobs, except for the military, and critical public safety positions.

Other mainly domestic related issues relate to the denial of federal funding for abortion, rolling back Obama’s healthcare programme and freezing the issue of any new regulations.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has been junked, and the USA has withdrawn from all negotiations and will not sign any deal.

Sparks are flying on trade issues and the border wall with Mexico.

Following a tweet by Trump, vowing to make Mexico pay for the border wall and saying that if the Mexican President was unwilling to pay, he would not meet him, the Mexican President was left with no choice and cancelled his scheduled visit to Washington, even while the Mexican Foreign Minister was in Washington to negotiate various issues.

Trump officials have hinted that a 20% import tax could be imposed to raise revenue for the wall. Analysts promptly pointed out that American importers of Mexican goods, who would have to pay this tax, will simply pass on the cost to the consumer. This is sure to fuel inflation and the American consumer will pay the price.

It did not take long for Trump officials to say that the import tax was only one of many options.

Is the chaos deliberate?

Is Trump trying to deliberately create chaos, uncertainty, and panic, with the purpose of making various countries jittery, so that his administration can negotiate new deals on trade and immigration?

Many believe that this could be part of his strategy. Renegotiating NAFTA and other trading arrangements will certainly put pressure on Canada and Mexico if the Trump administration demands concessions in pursuit of his “Buy American and hire American” objectives.

It is not clear at all how Trump will re-negotiate NAFTA, which has created an integrated North American market with almost zero tariffs across virtually all trade between Canada, Mexico and the USA over the last 22 years. Typically, exports from Mexico into the USA contain 40% American content.

Withdrawing from NAFTA will be huge jolt to the economies of all three countries, considering that Canada and Mexico are the top two markets for US exports. It is inconceivable that dismantling NAFTA will benefit the USA, when over $3 billion in trade takes place every day within NAFTA.

It is educative to remember that the Great Depression of the 1930s owes much to the “Smoot-Hawley” unilateral punitive tariff on imports, that virtually brought international trade to a halt, deepening and prolonging the Depression.

His China Policy

What Trump does with China will surely be the most awaited. If he goes after China, as promised during his campaign, it will surely churn up international trade even more.

Trump had also targetted Japan and Mexico, both countries with whom the USA runs large trade deficits. The largest trade deficit is with China, almost $320 billion. Any attempt to rein in this deficit by erecting a tariff wall will not only violate WTO regulations, but also lead to retaliatory measures.

If Trump pursues these protectionist policies, a global trade war will definitely follow, leading to a global recession. This result will affect adversely every country, including the USA, which will suffer cuts in GDP growth.

The scrapping of the TPP, widely regarded as the economic aspect of the ‘pivot’ or ‘rebalance’ towards the Asia-Pacific, has left the trade arena open for China to exploit.

How all this can affect India

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), comprising 16 Asia-Pacific nations, the 10 ASEAN countries plus China, India, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and Australia, may now get a boost. (India and China were not in the TPP. The USA is excluded from the RCEP.)

If this mega trade deal comes to fruition, it would be the largest trading bloc in the world, encompassing 3.4 billion people, a cumulative GDP of $17 trillion, with 40% share of global trade.

Negotiations on RCEP have been meandering along for over three years. With China’s huge investment corpus and commitment to spend billions of dollars in ‘One Belt, One Road’ and the Silk Route, the RCEP will become much more attractive to Asian and European countries.

China is already dumping its goods in the region, and India is struggling with a huge adverse trade imbalance with China, while it faces non-tariff barriers for the entry of its products and services into the Chinese market.

India is seeking greater access in the services sector, and is reluctant to lower tariffs to protect its own industries.

Though India is not on Trump’s radar screen, in so far as adverse trade imbalance is concerned, in the services sector, India will also be targetted in the IT and BPO sectors, which constitute a huge chunk of India’s services export to the USA.

The mitigating factor will be the upswing in Indo-US relations, that has gathered momentum in the last decade. The powerful military industrial lobby in the USA can be a balancer, as India’s defence requirements increase rapidly. The USA has emerged as India’s largest defence partner over the last decade.

Can Corporate Lobby clip Trump’s wings?

Many believe that the American corporate lobby and bureaucracy will mitigate Trump’s adventurism, because his economic goals cannot be achieved if Trump antagonises this powerful segment of the US.

Whatever the fallout of it, we are entering a phase in global politics wherein the established post-World War II global order, as we have known, is undergoing a huge churning.

We may be facing a seminal change on how the new global security and economic order will evolve.

This article was first published in Catch News.

Germany Refuses To Share Islamic State Intel With Turkey

$
0
0

Germany has refused a request from Turkey to share reconnaissance images gathered by the German military as part of the global anti-Islamic State coalition for fear that Ankara would use the information to target Kurds, the German Defence Ministry said, according to Rudaw.

As a member of the global coalition fighting IS in Iraq and Syria, Germany’s Tornado fighter jets have carried out reconnaissance missions from Turkey’s Incirlik airbase. Though Turkey is a member of the coalition, Germany has not given Turkey uncensored access to the high resolution imagery gathered for fear Ankara would use the information in its military campaign against Kurds, Reuters reported.

The imagery and information gathered is provided “solely to the anti-Islamic State coalition” and the military follows a strict process to ensure the intelligence gathered is not used for other purposes, Reuters quoted a ministry spokesperson as saying.

German diplomats had received threats from persons within the Turkish military, saying that Turkey would not approve improvements on the base until it was given full access to the imagery, Spiegel Online reported.

Relations between Germany and Turkey have been strained after the German parliament voted last June to recognize the Armenian genocide and Germany has been vocal in its criticism of Turkey’s crackdown after the failed coup. Ankara has accused Berlin of turning a blind eye to activities of the banned Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Germany.

Late last year, the German military considered relocating its Tornado reconnaissance jets out of Turkey’s Incirlik airbase because of the strained relations.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is expected to visit Ankara this week to discuss coordination in fighting terrorism, the refugee crisis, and economic ties, according to state-run Anadolu Agency.

Turkey is conducting a military campaign against the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and frequently carries out airstrikes in the Kurdistan Region where the PKK has bases in the Qandil mountains.

African Union Denounces US Ban On Muslim Immigrants – Analysis

$
0
0

By Global Information Network

An outraged African Union (AU) recalled the kidnapping of Black Africans as it considered the controversial new US anti-immigrant rules. After forcibly bringing Africans to the U.S. as slave labour, noted the AU, Washington now slams the door on Muslim immigrants entering the U.S.

“It is clear that globally we are entering very difficult times,” cautioned outgoing AU Commissioner Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, speaking at the January 30-31 summit of 53 member states in Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa.

“The very country to which many of our people were taken as slaves during the transatlantic slave trade has now decided to ban refugees from some of our countries,” she said.

On January 27, President Donald Trump suspended all U.S. refugee programs and banned immigration from seven Muslim-majority countries, three of which are AU members.

The executive order signed by Trump specifically bars Libyans, Somalians and Sudanese from travelling to the U.S. It also blocks visas for citizens from four Middle Eastern countries – Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran.

All U.S. refugee programs are frozen for 120 days, and the flow of Syrian refugees to America is ended indefinitely.

The new UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, speaking at the AU’s summit in Ethiopia, commended African countries for opening their borders to refugees and people fleeing violence while in other parts of the world, including the developed West, they are closing borders and building walls.

He praised African nations for being among the world’s largest and most generous hosts of refugees.

AU Summit proceedings began with the swift election of Chadian Foreign Minister Moussa Faki Mahamat, 56, as the new chairperson of the AU Commission, beating four other candidates.

Faki won in a final battle against his Kenyan counterpart Amina Mohamed after seven rounds of voting. The Kenyan government praised Ms. Mohamed, once the odds-on favourite, for waging a “valiant race”.

Faki takes on the role as his country’s President Idriss Deby Itno hands over the rotating presidency of the AU to Guinea’s Alpha Conde.

A former prime minister, Faki has been at the forefront of the fight against Islamists in Nigeria, Mali and the Sahel and has promised “development and security” will top his agenda as chief of the 54-member continental bloc, which now includes Morocco after 33 years’ absence.

Faki said he dreams of an Africa where the “sound of guns will be drowned out by cultural songs and rumbling factories” and pledged to streamline the bureaucratic AU during his four-year term in office.

Morocco admitted as new member

A highlight of the AU summit was the readmission of Morocco after a 33-year absence. Opposition to its readmission was overcome among key AU players including Nigeria, South Africa, Algeria, Kenya and Angola, even as a last minute request for a legal opinion was submitted as to whether the AU could accept a member that is “occupying parts of the territory” of another member, namely the Western Sahara.

Morocco refuses to cede its claim to occupied Western Sahara, maintaining that the former Spanish colony is an integral part of the kingdom, while the Polisario Front, which campaigns for the territory’s independence, demands a referendum on self-determination.

Algeria and South Africa are the major allies of the Polisario Front. After talks with Polisario leader Brahim Ghali last month, South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma said: “It is unfathomable that Western Sahara… still remains colonized.

“We remain committed to continue to walk with the people of Western Sahara until you are free to live in your own land and able to determine your own future.”

Intense lobbying had preceded the decision to readmit Morocco as fears grew among Western Saharans that they might be kicked out of the AU. Last year, 28 AU members signed a petition to expel it, even though the bloc’s treaty doesn’t chart a clear path for removing a member against its will.

Nevertheless, despite “fundamental concerns that have to be taken into account”, the AU’s legal counsel gave the green light to readmission.

Morocco left the AU’s predecessor (the Organization for African Unity) in 1984 protesting the body’s recognition of Western Sahara’s independence.

Working in Morocco’s favour was its affluence – much needed since the death of Muammar Gaddafi, a key financier of the AU.

Now, with Morocco, the AU gains a well-connected member as it seeks to move away from international funding and become more self-reliant in the face of isolationist tendencies in the U.S. and Europe. A close ally of the U.S., Morocco collaborates on the “war on terror” and has supported European Union efforts to stop African migrants from reaching its shores.

IOC Sanctions Three Athletes For Failing Anti-Doping Test At London 2012

$
0
0

International Olympic Committee (IOC) announced Wednesday that three athletes (have been disqualified from the Olympic Games London 2012.

To provide a level playing field for all clean athletes at the Olympic Games Rio 2016, the IOC put special measures in place, including targeted pre-tests and the re-analysis of stored samples from the Olympic Games Beijing 2008 and London 2012, following an intelligence-gathering process that started in August 2015.

The IOC said that Vera Ganeeva, 28, of the Russian Federation, competing in the women’s discus throw event in which she ranked 23rd, has been disqualified from the Olympic Games London 2012. Re-analysis of Ganeeva’s samples from London 2012 resulted in a positive test for the prohibited substance dehydrochloromethyltestosterone (turinabol).

Also, Adem Kilicci, 30, of Turkey, competing in the men’s 69-75 kg boxing event (round of 32 and quarterfinal) in which he ranked 5th and for which he was awarded a diploma, has been disqualified from the Olympic Games London 2012. Re-analysis of Kilicci’s samples from London 2012 resulted in a positive test for the prohibited substance dehydrochlormethyltestosterone (turinabol).

Finally, the IOC said that Antonina Krivoshapka, 29, of the Russian Federation, competing in the women’s 400m event, in which she ranked 6th and for which she was awarded a diploma, and in the women’s 4x400m relay event, in which she and her teammates ranked 2nd and for which they were awarded a silver medal, has been disqualified from the Olympic Games London 2012. Re-analysis of Krivoshapka’s samples from London 2012 resulted in a positive test for the prohibited substance dehydrochlormethyltestosterone (turinabol).

Researcher Predicts Atlanta Falcons To Win Super Bowl

$
0
0

The Atlanta Falcons will defeat the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 51. This prediction comes from a University of Pittsburgh researcher who backs his claim with seven years of National Football League (NFL) data and statistics.

“Increasingly, we are seeing NFL coaches and executives embracing analytics to improve their overall knowledge of the game and give them data-driven competitive advantages over their opponents. I believe this study is yet another step in that direction,” said Konstantinos Pelechrinis, an associate professor in Pitt’s School of Information Sciences.

Pelechrinis’s study, published in PLOS, analyzed 1,869 regular and postseason games from 2009 to 2015. Through in-depth analysis, he identified key in-game factors–turnover differential and penalty yardage, among others–that directly correlate with winning probability. The analysis found that committing one fewer turnover than the opposition presented a 20 percent gain in winning probability. A 10-yard advantage in penalty yardage correlated to a 5 percent difference.

He then used a probability model to create a Football Prediction Matchup (FPM) engine to compare teams. Pelechrinis compared the Patriots’ and the Falcons’ performances in those key in-game factors during the 2016 regular season. Finally, Pelechrinis ran 10,000 simulations of the game in order to draw his conclusion: The Atlanta Falcons have a 54 percent probability of prevailing in Super Bowl 51.

“I believe both die-hard football fans and casual viewers will be in for an exciting game this Sunday. The Patriots and the Falcons are two dynamic, high-scoring football teams that perform extraordinarily well in the key areas of the game that most impact winning,” said Pelechrinis. “However, we are confident that it will be the Atlanta Falcons walking away with that franchise’s first Vince Lombardi Trophy.”

When Pelechrinis ran his model on the 2017 NFL Playoffs, the FPM had an accuracy rate of 90 percent. Pelechrinis said the system can reliably foretell the outcomes of all NFL games with an accuracy of 63 percent. This rate is comparable to existing state-of-the-art prediction systems and outperforms expert NFL analysts more than 60 percent of the time.

In addition to predicting upcoming game matchups, an expanded version of the study explored strategic on-field decision-making. Most notably, it found that coaches are overly conservative in key situations such as fourth-down conversions and point-after-touchdown options, which reduces the team’s winning probability percentage. Pelechrinis points to fourth-down conversion attempts when deep within an opponent’s territory as a prime example of coaches being too cautious with their in-game decisions.

“When faced with, let’s say, a fourth-and-1 from an opponent’s 25-yard line, conventional football wisdom says a field-goal attempt–potentially resulting in three points–would be a coach’s best option. The research shows that continuing to pursue a touchdown–eventually resulting in six to eight points–would be best for maximizing this scoring opportunity as well as the overall goal of winning the game,” Pelechrinis said.

Pelechrinis, who leads Pitt’s School of Information Sciences’ Network Data Science Lab, adds: “I should make it clear here that I’m not advocating for always going for the touchdown in this situation. You always have to consider the in-game circumstances. Obviously, if you’re down by one point with less than two minutes in the game, just kick the field goal.”

Pelechrinis partnered in this study with Evangelos Papalexakis, a professor of computer science at the University of California, Riverside.

Evidence Of 2 Billion Years Of Volcanic Activity On Mars

$
0
0

Analysis of a Martian meteorite found in Africa in 2012 has uncovered evidence of at least 2 billion years of volcanic activity on Mars. This confirms that some of the longest-lived volcanoes in the solar system may be found on the Red Planet.

Shield volcanoes and lava plains formed from lava flowing over long distances, similar to the formation of the Hawaiian Islands. The largest Martian volcano, Olympus Mons, is nearly 17 miles high. That’s almost triple the height of Earth’s tallest volcano, Mauna Kea, at 6.25 miles.

Tom Lapen, a geology professor at the University of Houston and lead author of a paper published Feb. 1 in the journal Science Advances, said the findings offer new clues to how the planet evolved and insight into the history of volcanic activity on Mars.

Much of what we know about the composition of rocks from volcanoes on Mars comes from meteorites found on Earth. Analysis of different substances provides information about the age of the meteorite, its magma source, length of time in space and how long the meteorite was on Earth’s surface.

Something slammed into the surface of Mars 1 million years ago, hitting a volcano or lava plain. This impact ejected rocks into space. Fragments of these rocks crossed Earth’s orbit and fell as meteorites.

The meteorite, known as Northwest Africa 7635 and discovered in 2012, was found to be a type of volcanic rock called a shergottite. Eleven of these Martian meteorites, with similar chemical composition and ejection time, have been found.

“We see that they came from a similar volcanic source,” Lapen said. “Given that they also have the same ejection time, we can conclude that these come from the same location on Mars.”

Together, these meteorites provide information about a single location on Mars. Previously analyzed meteorites range in age from 327 million to 600 million years old. In contrast, the meteorite analyzed by Lapen’s research team was formed 2.4 billion years ago and suggests that it was ejected from one of the longest-lived volcanic centers in the solar system.

China: Thousands Detained As Year Of Rooster Begins

$
0
0

Authorities in China have detained thousands of people who converged on Beijing to highlight grievances against government officials in their hometowns, sending them off to start the Year of the Rooster in a detention center.

As the rest of the country got together with family to mark the Chinese New Year, crowds have continued to gather outside central government offices since the first day of the New Year on Jan. 28, Radio Free Asia reported.

Wu Jixin, a petitioner from the eastern province of Jiangsu, said he was detained after raising a banner with around a dozen fellow petitioners.

But he said local government “interceptors” had been hard at work in Beijing detaining anyone from their region who complained about the government there.

“The local governments are detaining people left, right, and center in Beijing because petitioning puts these governments under more political pressure,” Wu said. “The petitioners just want their grievances to be dealt with.”

He said large numbers of people are now being held in huge detention centers on the outskirts of Beijing for “registration,” before being sent home under the escort of interceptors.

Interceptors frequently use violence against petitioners on the journey home, activists say, with a string of such incidents reported in recent weeks.

Petitioners also frequently report beatings from police back home, harassment by landlords and employers, and incarceration in psychiatric hospitals when they have no mental illness.

Deaths and “disappearances” in unofficial detention centers, or “black jails,” are also not uncommon, but evidence of police wrongdoing is hard to come by when authorities typically refuse to allow independent autopsies.


Germany: Bishops Say Divorced-And-Remarried May Receive Communion

$
0
0

By Elise Harris

The German bishops have published their own guidelines on Amoris laetitia allowing, in certain cases, for divorced-and-remarried Catholics to receive Communion.

The decision by the German bishops’ conference comes on the heels of a similar announcement made by the bishops of Malta.

While the German bishops emphasized that access to the sacraments is a question of each individual case, the new guidelines do allow the “possibility of receiving the sacraments in these situations.”

Titled “The joy of Love, which is lived in Families, is also the Joy of the Church,” the guidelines issed by the permanent council of the German bishops’ conference were released Feb. 1 and bear the subtitle “An invitation to a Renewed Marriage and Family Pastoral Care in Light of Amoris laetitia.”

The German bishops’ conference’s permanent council meets five or six times a year, and “each [German] diocesan bishop has seat [sic] and vote in the permanent council and can send an auxiliary bishop as his representative to the meetings.

In the document, the German bishops said that accompanying couples in crisis, divorce, and remarriage is “a great challenge and an opportunity to bring the Church and her understanding of marriage.”

“For the question of the reception of the sacraments, the bishops do not see in Amoris laetitia a general rule or an automatism, but rather, they are convinced that discerned solutions which do justice to the individual case are required,” they said.

In regards to Amoris laetitia, the bishops said they will proceed “from a process of discernment, accompanied by a pastoral worker.”

However, they also clarified that “not all faithful whose marriage is broken and who are divorced and civilly remarried, can receive the sacraments without distinction.”

In a statement released alongside the guidelines, the bishops praised Amoris laetitia for its “pastoral and theological benefits” and for introducing what they called four pillars “of a pastoral approach to marriage and family pastoral care.”

These pillars are: marriage preparation; marriage accompaniment; strengthening the family as a place of learning the faith; and dealing with fragility through accompaniment, discernment, and integration.

While the first three pillars are covered in just one or a few graphs, the fourth is the core of the new guidelines.

The bishops acknowledge that marriage is indissoluble, but at the same time argue that specific attention should be given to persons’ individual situations and that judgements “which do not take into account the complexity of the various situations” should be avoided.

Referencing sections 296 and 297 of Amoris laetitia, the German bishops said that “with the guiding concepts” of accompaniment, discernment, and integration, those affected “must be helped.”

While accompaniment requires “encouraging people on the way of life and the Gospel,” they said discernment should not stop at what the objective moral situation of those affected is.

On this point, they referenced footnote 351 of Amoris laetitia, in which Pope Francis wrote: “In certain cases, this can include the help of the sacraments. Hence, ‘I want to remind priests that the confessional must not be a torture chamber, but rather an encounter with the Lord’s mercy’. I would also point out that the Eucharist ‘is not a prize for the perfect, but a powerful medicine and nourishment for the weak’.”

The German bishops’ conference commented: “At the end of such a spiritual process, which is always concerned with integration, not in every case will there be a reception of the sacraments of penance and the Eucharist.”

The bishops stressed that “the individual decision of whether one, under the respective circumstances, is able to receive the sacraments, deserve respect and recognition. However, the decision to receive the sacraments must also be respected.”

At the conclusion of the document the bishops encouraged those who want to pursue marriage and family life in the Church “to personally acquaint themselves with the groundbreaking text that is Amoris laetitia.”

A divided stance

Bishops from Germany who had already advocated admitting the divorced-and-remarried to Communion included Cardinal Walter Kasper; Cardinal Reinhard Marx; Bishop Franz-Josef Bode; and Archbishop Heiner Koch.

However, despite the factions of bishops who seem to be opening the door to a path to admitting divorced-and-remarried Catholics to Communion, many are still resistant to the idea, including some heavy-hitters who are themselves German.

Cardinal Walter Brandmüller, president emeritus of the Pontifical Committee for Historical Sciences, was one of four signatories of a letter containing five “dubia” submitted to the Pope in September asking him to clarify ambiguous parts of Amoris laetitia, and which was later published.

Other prelates with German roots who have been outspoken against the proposal to admit the divorced-and-remarried to Communion include Emeritus Pope Benedict XVI; Cardinal Paul Cordes; Bishop Stefan Oster; Bishop Konrad Zdarsa; Bishop Gregor Hanke; Bishop Rudolf Voderholzer; Bishop Friedhelm Hofmann; Bishop Wolfgang Ipolt; Archbishop Ludwig Schick; and Cardinal Joachim Meisner.

In addition, Cardinal Gerhard Müller, prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, has on multiple occasions maintained that Amoris laetitia is in continuity with Church teaching.

In an interview with Italian monthly Il Timone published the same day the German bishops’ guidelines were released, the cardinal stressed that “it is not right that so many bishops are interpreting Amoris laetitia according to their way of understanding the pope’s teaching.”

“This does not keep to the line of Catholic doctrine,” he said, stressing that Amoris laetitia “must clearly be interpreted in the light of the whole doctrine of the Church.”

Having so many bishops split off with their own interpretations “does not keep to the line of Catholic doctrine,” he said, adding that the Pope’s magisterium is able to be interpreted only by him or by the Vatican’s doctrinal congregation.

“The Pope interprets the bishops, it is not the bishops who interpret the Pope; this would constitute an inversion of the structure of the Catholic Church,” he said, telling the bishops “who are talking too much” to first “study the doctrine (of the councils) on the papacy and the episcopate.”

As someone who teaches the Word of God to others, a bishop must himself “be the first to be well-formed so as not to fall into the risk of the blind leading the blind.”

Cardinal Müller pointed to Familiaris consortio, St. John Paul II’s 1981 exhortation on the Christian family in the modern world, in which the Polish Pope stipulated that the divorced-and-remarried who for serious reasons cannot separate, in order to receive absolution in confession which would open the way to receiving Communion, must take on the duty to live in complete continence.

This aspect of the text, Cardinal Müller said, “it is not dispensable, because it is not only a positive law of John Paul II, but he expressed an essential element of Christian moral theology and the theology of the sacraments.”

Confusion on this point, he said, stems from a failure to accept  St. John Paul II’s 1993 encyclical Veritatis splendor, which taught that there are intrinsically evil acts, that absolute truths exist across various cultures, and urged sharp caution against moral relativism and the misuse of conscience to justify false or subjective morals.

For Christians, “marriage is the expression of participation in the unity between Christ the bridegroom and the Church his bride,” he said, adding that “this is not, as some said during thesynod, a simple vague analogy. No! This is the substance of the sacrament, and no power in heaven or on earth, neither an angel, nor the Pope, nor a council, nor a law of the bishops, has the faculty to change it.”

The prelate then suggested that in order to quell the confusion generated by the differing interpretations of Amoris laetitia, everyone ought to study the Church’s doctrine, beginning with Scripture, “which is very clear on marriage.”

He advised against “entering into any casuistry that can easily generate misunderstandings, above all that according to which if love dies, then the marriage bond is dead.”

“These are sophistries: the Word of God is very clear and the Church does not accept the secularization of marriage,” he said. The task of priests and bishops, then, “is not that of creating confusion, but of bringing clarity.”

Cardinal Müller stressed that amid the ongoing debate, “one cannot refer only to little passages” present in Amoris laetitia, but must read the document “as a whole, with the purpose of making the Gospel of marriage and the family more attractive for persons.”

“All of us must understand and accept the doctrine of Christ and of his Church, and at the same time be ready to help others to understand it and put it into practice even in difficult situations.”

Anian Christoph Wimmer contributed to this report.

Where Are The EU Twitter Communities?

$
0
0

Governments and politicians have attempted to exploit social media for their own ends. However, a study published in the International Journal of Electronic Governance reveals that governmental Twitter accounts across the European Union have almost totally failed.

These accounts do not widely engage members of the public and have not created the “communities” their advocates desired in the quest to elicit public adoption of e-government.

Konstantinos Antoniadis and Kostas Zafiropoulos of the Department of International and European Studies at the University of Macedonia, Thessaloniki, and Vasiliki Vrana of the Technological Education Institute of Central Macedonia, in Serres, Greece, have explored mentions and replies on the well-known and popular microblogging platform Twitter.

They found that mentions and replies to networks of 56 ministries with Twitter accounts in seventeen EU countries do not suggest that any of those accounts have built communities.

Twitter had at the last count well over 300 million monthly active users a mere fraction of those of another social media service, Facebook with its almost 2 billion active users.

Nevertheless, these are significant numbers of people that might be engaged by any person or any organization with the wont to engage them online. The growth of Twitter was eventually noticed by governments and their advisers and has been adopted by them as a tool with which they might disseminate government information, provide access to services, connect with the public and “listen to the voice of people”.

The team suggests that the concept of e-government is yet to mature. There are signs that some “authority” users of social media, the members of the public with large, highly engaged followings themselves, may well represent a springboard for notices and responses from governments, but this is yet to manifest as the desired Twitter communities the politicians seek.

South Korea: Two Moons And The Future Of A Nation – Analysis

$
0
0

By Rahul Raj*

Since the impeachment of South Korean President Park Guen-hye after her alleged involvement in one of the nation’s biggest corruption scandals, the major political parties have swung into action to build electoral momentum and begin campaigning for the next presidential election scheduled to take place later in 2017. The corruption scandal has gravely damaged the ruling conservative Saenuri Party, which saw a large number of its lawmakers siding with opposition party leaders in support of Park’s impeachment. On the other hand, the opposition party, which has supported public demonstrations to oust the president, is buoyant at the chance to end its ten-year exile and catapult itself to power by capitalising on the national disenchantment with the ruling party. However, things are not as rosy as they seem, for the opposition party. Despite the fact that the ruling party is in disarray and struggling to recuperate from political scandal, the opposition party is beset with its own frictions, which include trying to decide on a presidential candidate who can unite the various opposition groups.

Among those jostling for the Blue House, two main populist presidential candidates have emerged as front-runners – Moon Jae-in, the former leader of the main opposition Democratic Party, and Ban Ki-moon, the former South Korean foreign minister who has just ended a ten year stint as the UN Secretary-General. Both have relative strengths and weaknesses as well as loyal followers, which should make this election a highly competitive affair. In the balance hangs the future of a nation in the midst of its greatest political turmoil in decades.

Moon Jae-in: A Quick Assessment

Since President Park’s impeachment by the South Korean Parliament, Moon Jae-in has shown strong popular appeal in election polling albeit he is not viewed as a particularly charismatic leader and there are doubts as to whether he can unite the public and political leaders behind his candidacy. Moon Jae-in has also been criticised for flip-flopping on major national security issues by his own party members as well as the conservative party. Last year, Moon joined the bandwagon in opposing the US-made Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, joining other opposition parties in order to capitalise on public protests against deploying the system in South Korea. Now, Moon has changed his stance, stating that a decision on THAAD should wait until the next government is in place.

Furthermore, he has been embroiled in a controversy with Song Min-song, a former foreign minister who, in his memoir, alleges that Moon backed a proposal to seek Pyongyang’s opinion before casting a vote on the 2007 UN resolution on North Korean human rights violations (South Korea had abstained during the voting).

Moon has also been accused of leading the only group aligned with former progressive President Roh Moon-hyun while ignoring people loyal to the country’s former progressive president Kim Dae-jung. This was one of the reasons for the division in the party last year that saw those aligned with Kim Dae-jung leave the party and form the new People’s Party, which is not eager to support a Moon Jae-in candidacy. The People’s Party also badly defeated the Democratic Party in the Assembly elections last year in South Korea’s Cheolla region, a bastion of progressive voters.

Ban Ki-moon: A Quick Assessment

Ban Ki-moon is a popular figure in South Korean politics who has returned to South Korea after finishing his term at the UN, signaling his intention to join the fray for the Blue House. However, despite his celebrity status he has his own drawbacks.

Primary among them is the fact that Ban lacks experience in South Korean domestic politics and does not have the backing of a political party. The joy of his homecoming and possible electoral prospects have also been marred by an allegation by Sisa Journal, a local business magazine, that he received a bribe while serving as South Korea’s foreign minister in 2005.

A Ban spokesman has rejected the charge calling them as baseless, and has vowed legal action, arguing that the magazine cited several anonymous sources in a 2016 story it published about the affair. Furthermore, he has been rumored to be supported by President Park, who tried to project him as a presidential candidate from the Saenuri Party. Hence, Ban has suffered a drop in popularity since the Park scandal broke and is now trailing behind Moon Jae-in in national polling. The breakaway conservative Bareun Party has indicated a willingness to support Ban, which would give him a political platform and also allow him to distance himself from the scandal-ridden Park presidency. However, Ban has been keeping his cards close to his chest amid speculation that he may form a broader alliance of like-minded parties who are opposed to both Moon Jae-in and Park Guen-hye, thereby broadening his appeal in the electoral mathematics.

Looking Ahead

The campaigning is yet to pick up real momentum, but political leaders are already drawing battle lines and attacking each other; and this is expected to intensify in the coming weeks. At the moment it appears likely that the two ‘Moons’ will become the leading candidates to seek election as South Korea’s next president, in the midst of a crisis that has shaken the faith of the Korean people in their political leadership and in the institution of the presidency.

* Rahul Raj
Assistant Professor, Department of Hotel & Tourism Management, Sejong University; and Adjunct Professor, Korean Studies, Graduate School of International Studies, Hanyang University, Seoul

Left Wing Extremism In 2017: Still Holding On – Analysis

$
0
0

Insurgency is a long drawn out affair and often defies attempts to bring it to a quick conclusion, whether by force, coercion, or strategies that are primarily geared at gaining fame for individual politicians or the leaders of security forces. 2016 proved just that, like the years that preceded it. The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) continues to be a source of instability in sizeable tracts of India’s territory, although their potential for violence has declined considerably, owing partly to state initiatives and partly to its own follies. A comprehensive solution to the problem remains, however, a distant goal.

LWE Status Report

LWE continues to be the source of the maximum number of fatalities in India, compared to other theatres of conflict such as Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) and the Northeastern states. According to provisional data by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), in 2016, LWE was the reason for 433 deaths, whereas 267 and 165 fatalities were reported from J&K and the Northeast respectively. This translates to Naxalites being responsible for over 48 per cent of fatalities in the country. In fact, the 2016 LWE-related figures represent not just a quantum jump of over 71 per cent in 2015, but surpass annual deaths recorded in the last six years. 2016 therefore was the bloodiest LWE affected year since 2011. Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) data reveals that territories in five states – Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Bihar and Maharashtra – either continue to remain under Maoist influence or are affected by the outfit’s activities. LWE is only marginally influential in parts of states like Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Madhya Pradesh, whereas West Bengal, where the CPI-Maoist once used to be predominantly active, continues to be Maoist-free.

Depleted Strength

On 24 October 2016, in the biggest counter-insurgency (COIN) success of the year, 24 CPI-Maoist cadres from the Andhra Odisha Border (AOB) zone were killed in a security force operation in Malkangiri district. Among those killed were Appa Rao alias Chalapathi, the East Division Secretary of the outfit; his wife, Aruna; Gajarala Ashok alias Uday, the military head of the AOB zone; and Munna, the son CPI-Maoist’s central committee member, Ramakrishna. Chalapathi carried an INR 20 lakh reward on his head, and Aruna, another INR 5 lakhs. The killings, the result of a meticulous operation, inflicted a serious blow to the outfit’s fledging presence in the area. The AOB zone today is among the weakest operational divisions of the outfit, having endured splits, killings, and alienation from the tribal community. Similarly, other zonal divisions of the CPI-Maoist, such as the Dandakaranya Special Zone and the Jharkhand-Odisha-Bihar Special Zone, too, are under immense pressure.

In addition to these 24 fallen cadres, the outfit lost another 220 members throughout the country in 2016. Cadres suspected of belonging to the CPI-Maoist and other smaller groups accounted for 56 per cent of the total LWE-related fatalities. Of these 244 LWE cadres who were killed in security force operations, 215 (amounting to 88 per cent) were killed in Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Odisha. This points to the fact that these three states are the worst LWE-affected in the country, necessitating a greater concentration of counter-LWE operations by the state. The rest of the country, probably with the exception of Bihar and Maharashtra which registered 194 LWE-related incidents, is only marginally affected.

According to the MHA, in 2016 (till 15 December), 1,750 LWE cadres were arrested and 1,431 cadres surrendered, thus severely depleting the strength of the outfit. Since the outfit’s capacity to recruit cadres among the tribal population is believed to have been weakened, such loss of cadres should have a telling effect on its activities in 2017. The narrative on surrenders, however, has remained problematic.

COIN Weaknesses

Behind these seemingly impressive figures, which many believe have broken the back of the LWE movement in the country, however, is a COIN campaign marked by a range of infirmities. Police in most of the LWE-affected states remain incapable of dealing with the threat without central assistance. As a result, an estimated 109 battalions of the Central Armed Police Force (CAPF) are currently assisting the police and providing security to a number of infrastructure building projects that have not taken off due to the extremist threat. Police infirmities, ranging from lack of intelligence and adequate numerical strength, have allowed a dependence on policies that could be counter-productive in the long-run. These include the use of vigilante groups against Naxal sympathisers, persecution of activists and lawyers who have been working to provide legal aid to tribal victims of police atrocities, and overt state support to police officials who have indulged in a number of human rights violations. Most of these COIN facets are witnessed in Chhattisgarh, which remains the worst affected. However, states like Jharkhand, Maharashtra, and Odisha are also not immune to these policies. Killing tribals unconnected to Naxalism in fake encounters, including a nine-year old child, sexual exploitation of tribal women by security force personnel and vigilante groups, and burning tribal villages, continue. A number of these allegations have been found to be true by the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) and the Supreme Court.

‘Mission 2016’, Chhattisgarh police project to combat the extremist problem, had raised the hope of a Naxal-free state by the end of 2016. However, in hindsight, it predominantly allowed certain police officials to curb press freedom, generate a rogue band of state loyalists to pursue so-called Naxal-sympathisers among academics and civil rights activists, and create an atmosphere of fear in which none of their controversial actions could be questioned. ‘Mission 2016’ ended with the Chhattisgarh police claiming the killing of 134 CPI-Maoist cadres. The Mission has since been rebranded, and the 2017 edition has declared ‘safedposh Naxals’ (white collar extremists) as its principal target.

‘Mainstreaming’ Naxals

One of the multiple government strategies to deal with LWE is to inculcate values such as “national integration, patriotism, nation building, and communal harmony” among tribal groups. Strategies to attract tribal youth to the ‘mainstream’ rather than LWE has led to the implementation of employment generation schemes that include recruiting tribal youth in Bastar to a specially formed battalion of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF). Scripting a narrative of triumph is also leading the police establishment to organise mass-scale surrenders of just not active Naxal cadres, but almost anybody who chooses to declare allegiance to the state. This primarily explains the reason for the 2.5 fold increase in the number of surrenders in 2016 over 2015. The NHRC, in September 2016, found the allegation of stage-managed fake ‘surrenders’ of well over a hundred ‘Naxal-operatives’ in 2011-12 as “prima facie true.” Police in Chhattisgarh’s Bastar division boasted of 1,210 Naxal surrenders in 2016, but a screening and rehabilitation committee of the state government held that 97 per cent of the surrenders did not adhere to the definition of “Naxal cadres” and were not eligible for benefits under the Centre or state government’s rehabilitation policy. Such adverse feedback notwithstanding, the Chhattisgarh police force is likely to use the surrender of manufactured Naxalites as a principal element of its perception management strategy. On 29 January 2017, 195 LWE cadres were shown to have surrendered in Narayanpur district.

Future Prospects

At a time when its top leadership’s interactions with the media has become a rarity, a somewhat honest assessment of the CPI-Maoist’s past actions and future strategies was provided by Chalapathi, a few months before his death. In a media interview, he blamed the multi-pronged attacks by the security forces as well as the outfit’s own mistakes for its weakened state. He admitted that the outfit’s ability to wage a class struggle by mobilising people had not been very successful. Guerrilla warfare techniques, too, have been successfully challenged by the security forces, making the launch of counter-attacks on difficult. He, however, expressed hope for a revival of the outfit’s fortunes in the coming months.

It is, therefore, unlikely that the CPI-Maoist will perish without an attempt to stage a comeback. Its new war strategy, in vogue since 2013, includes recruiting new cadres to offset losses; protecting its leadership and cadres from security force operations; and inflicting losses on the adversary in carefully planned operations. An analysis of its pattern of attacks in 2016 demonstrates an attempt to mount small and focused assaults on security forces and police informers within tribal groups. 109 such attacks were carried out on the police in 2016. MHA data indicate a significant increase in the number of police informers killed by the CPI-Maoist in 2016 (162) over 2015 (92). Intelligence agencies also point to a plan of expansion by creating a new guerrilla zone along the Chhattisgarh-Maharashtra-Madhya Pradesh (MP) border region, which will serve as an extension of its Abujhmad stronghold.

LWE is certainly on an ebb. But its capacity to delay its defeat by the state would probably be assisted by the state’s follies.

This article was published at IPCS.

CPEC: ‘Third Party’ Dilemma And Cracks In The Corridor – Analysis

$
0
0

By Amit Kumar*

Public opinion in China rarely witnesses apprehensions regarding key projects launched by the central leadership. However, over the past few months, Chinese experts – including academics and former diplomats – have expressed concerns regarding the slow progress and challenges faced by the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Some have even questioned the very rationale of implementing the CPEC. Meanwhile, curiously, Pakistan’s Lt General Aamir Riaz called on India to join the CPEC, in December 2016.

What are the various concerns that have found a voice in Chinese public opinion? What do they indicate?

Third Party Dilemma

The CPEC, billed as the flagship project of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has been at the core of Beijing-Islamabad relations since its 2015 launch.

On 21 December 2016, Lt General Aamir Riaz, Corps Commander, Southern Command, Pakistan Army, made a ‘surprising’ statement, calling on India to “shun enmity” and join the CPEC. Lt Gen Riaz invited India to “share the fruits of future development by shelving the anti-Pakistan activities and subversion.” The statement is significant because it comes from the person in charge of security in Balochistan, where, Pakistan alleges, India aids subversive activities to support Baloch separatists.

Beijing’s response to Lt Gen Riaz’s statement was calculated. On 23 December 2016, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying, in her regular press conference, said “I have seen these reports. I wonder whether the Indian side takes this offer made by the Pakistani general as a goodwill gesture….China would like to discuss the possibility of introducing a third party on the basis of consensus with the Pakistani side through consultation.”

Hua’s comments have two aspects that warrant attention: First, it extends support to Pakistan’s offer to India as a “goodwill gesture.” Second, it lays emphasis on reaching consensus through consultation with regard to the inclusion of “third parties.” This indicates that that even China was taken by surprise: her statement shows that China prefers to introduce a third party on the basis of consensus and not unilateral action. It also appears that Lt Gen Riaz’s ‘invitation’ had not been discussed with China.

As expected, media in both countries focused on the ‘support’ aspect. However, one report stood out in its interpretation of Lt Gen Riaz’s statement: an op ed, published on 22 December 2016 in China’s state-run Global Times, titled ‘Pakistan’s CPEC proposal to India sends an important gesture’, written by Liu Zongyi, senior fellow at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies. It appears to tone down the ‘invitation’ by arguing that “the invitation which came as a surprise to New Delhi, was mainly intended as a gesture.” Liu highlights the conditionality laid on India and says that “Pakistanis themselves do not want India to be part of the CPEC, or they believe, if India hopes to join, it must try to improve bilateral ties first. China believes that India should be part of the project and actively persuade Pakistan to accept it.” Liu further argues that “the CPEC runs through Pakistan-controlled Kashmir which is also claimed by India as its territory. It is almost suicidal for Indian politicians to make concessions over the issue. However, this is only an excuse. The fundamental reason why India is against the project is that it fears China could get access to the gate of the Indian Ocean through the corridor and Pakistan’s strength will be enhanced.”

CPEC: Cracks in the Corridor

Key challenges still exist vis-à-vis the CPEC’s implementation in Pakistan.

I

It would be natural to assume that before inviting a bid from a third party – one who is mutually perceived to be a challenger to their rise – China and Pakistan would make efforts to cement the cracks that are appearing in the corridor even before its completion.

As the CPEC enters the implementation phase, voices of concern in Chinese public opinion regarding its feasibility, pace of progress, and security can be observed. On 20 December 2016, the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies of People’s (Renmin) University of China and Caijing Magazine released a ‘Joint Research Report on CPEC’. According to accounts published in the Chinese media, the report, which was compiled after two weeks of field research:

  • Concedes that despite successes, the work of building the CPEC has also been plagued with difficulties
  • Argues that Chinese investment has become something to be squabbled over among different parties and region-based factions in Pakistan
  • States that neither China nor Pakistan can afford a failed CPEC and that if the chaos continues, the flagship project will be delayed, and the CPEC will become China’s burden, with potential for immense negative impact on Beijing’s BRI
  • Recommends Chinese companies to seek help from domestic (Chinese) security companies to cope with the security situation in Pakistan.

II

Mao Siwei, China’s former consul-general in Kolkata and a South Asia expert – who had recently ruffled the Chinese establishment’s feathers by arguing in his blog for a course correction by China on the Masood Azhar issue – even crossed the so-called line by questioning the fundamental objectives of implementing the CPEC.

In his blog, titled ‘Three Misgivings on the China Pakistan Economic Corridor’, published on 10 December 2016, Mao discusses what he characterises as China’s three main ‘misgivings’ regarding the CPEC, and argues that:

  • The so called “Malacca dilemma” is a false proposition, stating that only the US has the ability to block China’s sea route. He says that in an event of a conflict, if the US chooses to block the Malacca Strait, it would be easier for the US to block Gwadar. In the event of a more serious situation, Chinese tankers can still navigate from a longer route by passing further south of Sumatra.
  • Regarding access to the Indian Ocean and cross-border connectivity, he points out that although the cargo trial from Kashgar to Gwadar had been completed successfully, the route will take time to become a sustainable business channel. He adds that this route passes through Pakistan’s Balochistan Province, which is currently experiencing severe ethnic separatism, and frequent incidents of religious violence, due to which the security of this route cannot be guaranteed over an extended period of time.
  • More importantly, on the issue of Gwadar Port defending China’s legitimate rights in the Indian Ocean, Mao argues that maintaining a certain degree of military presence in the Indian Ocean is necessary, reasonable, and legitimate, but that since the shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean run very close to the Indian coastline, it is essential to maintain friendly relations with India. He argues that if China builds a naval base in Gwadar, it has to come in the form of a treaty or a security alliance, which would indicate that in the event of a conflict between India and Pakistan, China would be bound to stand by Pakistan. However, for decades, Chinese oil tankers and merchant shipping routes in the Indian Ocean have not encountered any security problems, and if China and Pakistan form a military alliance in the Indian Ocean, it will unnecessarily complicate the security of these sea routes.

III

Looking Ahead

China, Pakistan, and the CPEC

Challenges faced by Chinese enterprises engaged in the development of the CPEC in Pakistan are increasing. There are concerns regarding the slow progress on various projects even as Pakistan pushes to pick the “early harvest” (fast-tracked projects on energy and infrastructure). Most projects under the CPEC are commercial in nature, and there are already instances of disputes in contracts and technical specifications. Chinese scholars are increasingly vocal in cautioning Chinese enterprises that the CPEC should not be treated as a political task or be hurried.

CPEC and India

Chinese scholars, including Liu, may be aware that India has repeatedly told China to be “sensitive” to Indian strategic concern that the corridor runs via Gilgit-Baltistan, which is originally a part of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. What they often fail to highlight is the flaw in making India’s entry into the CPEC conditional. It is illogical to ask India for a compromise that would make it eligible to join a corridor that New Delhi is not even keen on. India is unlikely to consider the proposition to join the CPEC unless its interests are addressed, which remains unlikely at the moment.

Moreover, would Islamabad and Beijing be ready to accommodate India’s participation in this corridor, which connects Xinjiang and Balochistan, two restive regions in China and Pakistan, respectively? Even if the ‘invitation’ was a “goodwill gesture,” as Hua termed it, it remains to be seen how accommodating China and Pakistan would be vis-à-vis India becoming a stakeholder in infrastructure projects along the corridor.

Or, was Lt Gen Riaz’s invitation only a wild attempt to gain legitimacy by linking a few roads from western India to Lahore?

* Amit Kumar
Senior Fellow, China Research Programme, IPCS
E-mail: amit.kumar@ipcs.org

Canada’s Refugee Policy: A Calculated Risk – OpEd

$
0
0

Many persons across the world would have been surprised to read the welcome invitation from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to the refugees who could not enter the USA due to the immigration ban ordered by President Donald Trump.

A few hours after such invitation was sent by the Canadian Prime Minister, news came that a mosque in Quebec was attacked by terrorists resulting in the loss of valuable lives. One wonders whether the Canadian Prime Minister will have a rethink on this invitation after receiving news about this terrorist attack in Quebec.

The Canadian Prime Minister has said that diversity is the strength of Canada. The Toronto Mayor Mr. John Tory also echoed the views of the Canadian Prime Minister, stating that Toronto is the most diverse city in the world and no one should be excluded from entry on the basis of their ethnicity or nationality.

Certainly, there should be many Canadians living in Canada and elsewhere who would be wondering whether Canada should become a free for all country, which would inevitably mean that anyone irrespective of their background, political views and even extremist ideas would be welcomed in Canada. The anxiety of such persons would be that such open invitation would inevitably destabilize the society, create conflict of interest and sow the seed for unrest and disruption in the long run.

It is already suspected by many that Canada is becoming a receptive place for protesters and agitators from several countries who have grouped in Canada to carry out the disruptive activity against the targeted country. Many separatists from different countries are reported to be operating from Canada in clandestine manner and the affected countries have brought this to the attention of the Canadian government on several occasions in the past.

Certainly, it is a civilized behavior of any country or any political leader to be benevolent towards the citizens of other countries and receptive to their problems. At the same time, the government also need to take care that an element of in built unrest would not be built in the country due to the entry of persons with questionable background and conduct and who could become the full fledged citizens of Canada in due course.

It is true that Canada is an under populated country with vast natural resources and manufacturing and intellectual capability. However, despite this advantageous and favorable conditions, it would certainly be a calculated risk for Canada to go about shopping for human beings .

It is particularly surprising that Canada has not learned a lesson from the experience of west European countries due to their liberal policy towards the entry of refugees from Syria and other countries on compassionate ground. Many Germans are sore about such approach and policy of German Chancellor Angela Merkel , whose decision to allow refugees has already created social tension and unrest in some areas in Germany.

It would have been appropriate if the Canadian Prime Minister and Mayor of Toronto would have exercised greater care before extending invitation to refugees without check and control. President Donald Trump is trying to exercise check and control in permitting the refugees, which is appropriate from the point of view of long term social stability of the USA.

Should Canada adopt an alternate strategy of building a country of refugees and what would be the cost for Canada in the long run due to such hasty policy?

Gorsuch Is A Great Pick For Supreme Court – OpEd

$
0
0

Judge Neil Gorsuch has been selected by President Trump to take Judge Antonin Scalia’s place on the Supreme Court:

The Catholic League has a narrow focus when it comes to prospective U.S. Supreme Court judges.

We want someone who is intellectually admired by his colleagues, a person who has a well developed jurisprudential philosophy. We want someone who resists imputing his own political preferences when ruling on constitutional cases, and who instead interprets the law the way the Framers intended it to be understood.

Regarding the issues, we want someone who puts a premium on our two most important rights: the right to life, from fertilization to natural death, and religious liberty for all.

Judge Neil Gorsuch fits that description. He has a towering intellectual reputation, having studied at Columbia, Harvard, and Oxford. He is not an ideologue bent on affirming his politics in law. He is a judge who understands the dangers that assisted suicide and euthanasia pose to the most vulnerable members of society. He is a man who values religious liberty, holding that conscience rights are paramount.

President Trump has selected an incredibly gifted person for the Supreme Court. The Senate deserves to give him a fair hearing, acting without delay.


Concerns St. Isaac’s Dispute Could Spark A ‘Maidan’? – OpEd

$
0
0

A major demonstration in St. Petersburg against the city’s decision to give St. Issac’s Cathedral back to the Russian Orthodox Church marked the transformation of such protests from the issue at hand into a more political one, when opposition members of the city duma met with the protesters and the protesters in turn demanded that the governor be fired.

That in turn has sparked concern among pro-government legislators that the protesters in league with opposition members of the city legislature are about to launch a Maidan in the northern capital and demands that the authorities crack down hard before things get out of hand (republic.ru/posts/79173 and gazeta.ru/comments/2017/01/30_e_10499771.shtml).

In the month since Grigory Poltavenko, governor of St. Petersburg, announced his decision to hand over the major public monument on the city’s main avenue, residents have been furious not only about the decision itself but about the way it was taken, without any input from the residents of the northern capital.

Opponents of the handover have circulated petitions, gone to court, and staged protests. Last Saturday’s was the largest yet with an estimated 3,000 to 5,000 people turning up. But what made it especially notable is that deputies from the city duma attended and showed their support for the protesters new demand that the governor step down or be fired.

The pro-government fractions of the city legislature, including United Russia and LDPR demanded that the force strutures punish the participants, and the speaker of the parliament complained that among the demonstators were “representatives of the LGBT community, pacifists, anarchists and other [unspecified] actists.”

“This flagrant case puts the actions [of the activists] not simply beyond the law but also beyond all norms of morality,” one of the pro-government deputies said. There can be “no doubt” that all this was planned in advance in order to “break up divine services, crudely violate public order and offend the feelings of believers.”

Aleksandr Teterdinko, another United Russia deputy, called for a tightening of the rules governing meetings of representatives with their voters to prevent a repetition of what happened last weekend. According to him, “the opposition deputies ‘under the pretext of meeting with voters could organize a Maidan.’”

“The majority of the parliamentarians supported his call.”

According to “Gazeta,” both sides in the dispute now consider their fight “political,” something they had avoided declaring in the past. .And neither intends to back down, raising the possibility that tensions will continue to grow and could get out of hand or lead the authorities to launch a sweeping crackdown.

The paper observes that “at the end of 2010, the awakening of the political consciousness” of Russians “began with a meeting in [Moscow’s] Pushkin Square in defense of the Khimki forest … Then it suddenly was discovered” that the real problem was that officials were ignoring the views of the citizenry.

“For many this was a surprise.” But after the crackdown a few moths later, subsequent attempts by citizens to dispute in public the decisions of the authorities declined to almost nothing,” the paper says. But the events in St. Petersburg show that the most unexpected causes can lead people to protest again.

India’s Defence Budget 2017-18: Beyond The Numbers – Analysis

$
0
0

By Amit Cowshish

With the presentation of the annual budget for the next fiscal being just a few days away, there is no point in second guessing the size of the defence appropriation. Even so, it would be pretty safe to rule out any extraordinary hike in the allocation.

In last year’s medium term fiscal policy statement, the finance minister had mentioned that total defence expenditure, including the capital component, is estimated to be about 1.6 per cent of GDP in 2017-18 and 2018-19. Unless there is a huge spurt in GDP and reduced pressure from competing sectors allows sufficient elbow-room to the finance ministry, the defence budget is likely to grow by about 11 to 12 per cent over the Revised Estimate (RE) for the current fiscal, in keeping with the trend.

In that likely event, the same old issues that dominate the discourse on India’s defence budget are bound to resurface. Among them is the unrealistic demand that the defence budget be pegged at three per cent of GDP. Other issues include the idea of creating a non-lapsable pool of funds to conserve unutilised funds (especially under the revenue segment of the budget) which otherwise lapse at the end of the financial year in accordance with the government’s system of accounting. Further, the demand for ‘integration’ of the services headquarters with the ministry is bound to resurface with greater vigour. This is seen as a bulwark against the wily bureaucracy, which was recently uncharitably described as ‘feckless’ by a former naval chief.

The civilian bureaucracy, especially the bad boys of the finance division, are seen as the biggest hurdle in the swift processing of capital acquisition proposals and as responsible for derailing other demands, including one-rank-one-pension. Such a characterisation is grotesque, not least because it betrays a lack of dispassionate understanding of what ails the system and the tendency to discredit institutions.

Concerns will also be expressed about inefficient procurement procedures, inefficiency of the DRDO, Defence PSUs and ordnance factories, delay in introducing the strategic partnership model, the discriminatory treatment meted out to the private sector, and, above all, delay in appointment of the Chief of Defence Staff.

These issues, some of which are undoubtedly relevant, have gained greater legitimacy because of the Standing Committee on Defence joining the chorus. The counter-narrative is routinely ignored, if not deliberately suppressed.

Take, for example, the question of pegging the defence budget at three per cent of GDP. The defence and finance ministries have been of the view that the ‘co-relation of defence expenditure with GDP is just an indexation and has no bearing on defence preparedness’ or ‘to safeguard the interest of the country’. Even on practical considerations, the past trend and the various demands on finances, it is highly optimistic to expect that to happen. But these views were summarily rejected by the Standing Committee – and continue to be rejected by others – without pointing out why they are flawed and, more to the point, suggesting how this objective could be achieved.

Or, take, for example, the question of creating a non-lapsable pool of funds to conserve the unutilised allocation. The popular narrative is that this will solve many a problem but that it is not being accepted because the archaic ‘rules of business’ framed during the British Raj do not permit it. Nothing could be farther from the truth. First of all, unutilised balances are not held in cash. Even if a non-lapsable fund were to be created for rolling over these balances, the government will have to raise matching resources in the year in which these funds would be utilised. And, in any case, such an appropriation will require parliamentary approval.

All this can be found in various reports of the Standing Committee, along with what could be a startling revelation for some that, while the ministry of finance had agreed to the setting up of such a fund, ‘the Ministry of Defence, for reasons best known to them, asked us (the finance ministry) not to set it up’. This was more than a decade ago.

It makes little sense to borrow money only to hoard it, especially against the backdrop of repeated under-utilisation. More to the point, there are no ‘rules of business’ which come in the way. After all, we do have a non-lapsable pool of funds for the North Eastern Region. Yet, the narrative persists.

There is little discussion on how the integration of the service headquarters will pan out and what it will achieve. In fact, the underlying assumption in all this is that everything will fall into place once the civilian bureaucracy is replaced by the military bureaucracy since this will replace the perceived malady of ‘bureaucratic’ control of the armed forces with ‘political’ control.

For one thing, there is large scale delegation of administrative and financial powers down the line to the services, which undoubtedly need to be enhanced. Consequently, there is little interference in the day-to-day functioning of the armed forces by the MoD. There is little, if any, control that the MoD exercises especially in budgetary matters. It does not even have the time and the wherewithal to scrutinise the requirement of funds projected by the services and other departments.

That the armed forces do not get as much as they ask for is not because of the inability of the civilian bureaucracy to effectively plead the case before the finance ministry in the run up to the budget formulation, as many believe. It will be surprising if any ministry or department of the government gets whatever it asks for. Allocations depend on the ability of the government to raise enough resources and not bureaucratic machinations.

The post of Chief of Defence Staff, or permanent chief of the Chiefs of Staff Committee, is seen as a panacea for various ills besetting the defence establishment. He – and hopefully a she someday – might just be able to bring about greater jointness in planning and prioritisation of procurement, among other things, but cannot solve the real or perceived problem related to budgetary allocation.

With all the complexities of the procurement procedures, the MoD has been able to spend more than Rs. 5 lakh crore since 2002-03 on capital acquisitions, although around Rs. 50,000 crore was also under-spent during this period. This is not a small sum, but the point is whether the underutilisation is primarily, or largely, on account of procedural complexities.

It will be astonishing indeed if, after several revisions of the procurement procedure based on feedback from a cross-section of stakeholders, that the procurement procedure continues to be needlessly complex or even archaic. It is significant that the committee of experts set up by the government in 2015 did not recommend any drastic change in the basic architecture of the procurement procedure. There is always room for improvement though.

There is a need to go beyond these stale issues and have a more meaningful and dispassionate discussion on how to make the best use of the allocations made for defence. It also calls for taking steps that do not require widespread systemic changes, as these have a tendency to get mired in conflicting views. There is a need to respect institutions and individuals and not to carry out a campaign of vilification.

How about starting with instituting a system of outcome-oriented monitoring of important segments of the defence budget, the allocation for capital acquisition being one of them? Even the Standing Committee had recommended this last year. It will not take much effort to do so. It is also more likely to show results than a theoretical debate on micro-financial aspects of the defence budget. After all, in the words of Lao Tzu, the journey of a thousand miles has to begin with a single step.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India. Originally published by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at http://idsa.in/idsacomments/defence-dudget-2017-18_acowshish_300117

Mandatory ‘Ban The Box’ Requirements May Do More Harm Than Good – Analysis

$
0
0

By John Malcolm and John-Michael Seibler*

Should private employers be able to ask a job applicant about a potential criminal record when they think it is appropriate, or must they wait to ask until lawmakers allow them to do so? While many employers have voluntarily agreed to “ban the box” by eliminating or delaying questions about a job applicant’s possible criminal record—and should be applauded for doing this—some states require them to do so. Some localities, including Baltimore, Maryland, and Columbia, Missouri, have gone a step further and have made it a crime for an employer to violate a ban the box ordinance either directly or indirectly (by asking the applicant oblique questions designed to elicit such information or by conducting a criminal background check).

In addition, employers covered by Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 should be aware that the United States Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) has issued Enforcement Guidance specifying when employers may and may not ask a job applicant or employee about his or her criminal history. The EEOC has also filed claims alleging unlawful discrimination against some employers who have acted in contravention of that guidance.

Major Corporations Take the Pledge

One year ago, President Barack Obama spoke about how hard it can be for individuals with a criminal history to find employment[1] and, through executive action, required the Office of Personnel Management to “delay inquiries into criminal history” for federal job applicants, a practice known as “ban the box.”[2] In April 2016, the White House launched a voluntary Fair Chance Business Pledge for private-sector leaders to do the same and thereby “improve their communities by eliminating barriers for those with a criminal record and creating a pathway for a second chance.” Major corporations, including the Coca-Cola Company, Google, Koch Industries, Starbucks, and Uber, voluntarily signed on.[3] As Mark Holden, General Counsel at Koch Industries, recently stated:

Few things are as important for people trying to rejoin society as having a job. According to the Justice Department, more than 650,000 incarcerated individuals return to their communities every year, and after years behind bars they desperately need a chance to find personal fulfillment and provide for themselves and their families. But a combination of government restrictions and business hiring processes too often leave them with few, if any, opportunities for gainful employment.

The results are as predictable as they are disheartening. When people with criminal records struggle to find work, they become much more likely to re-offend….

To help end this sad cycle, businesses should consider instituting a “ban the box” hiring policy. A 2009 study by Harvard and Princeton researchers showed that checking the box on a job application that indicates a criminal record reduces the chances of a callback by 50%, with blacks hurt twice as much as white applicants with criminal records. By eliminating or delaying this question, candidates are less likely to be rejected before their qualifications are considered.

We employ this approach at Koch Industries—we officially removed the box last year, delaying the question until later in the hiring process. Before that, we had a process by which we reviewed a job candidate’s offense to determine whether it was job-related. Even if it was, we engaged in a further review into the nature of the offense and the time passed since its occurrence. The combination of these two policies has resulted in job offers to thousands of candidates with criminal records.

Many of those hired have been dedicated employees who have risen through the company’s ranks….

Hundreds of thousands of people with criminal records try to rejoin society every year, and they want to contribute to their communities and improve their lives. We can help them by breaking down barriers that stand in their way. No one should be judged forever based on what they did on their worst day—and everyone deserves a second chance.[4]

Helpful or Harmful?

A 2011 study of formerly incarcerated individuals supports that view, finding that employment is the single most important factor in reducing recidivism and that two years after their release, nearly twice as many employed as unemployed formerly incarcerated individuals had avoided another brush with the law.[5] In addition, according to the Southern Coalition for Social Justice, the hiring of formerly incarcerated individuals by the City of Durham, North Carolina, increased nearly sevenfold during the first four years after the city’s ban the box law took effect.[6]

Some researchers, however, have suggested that adopting ban the box policies may do more harm than good by lowering the chances of employment for “young, low-skilled black…and…Hispanic men.”[7] Specifically, private employers, if prohibited from inquiring into an applicant’s criminal background, may resort instead to assumptions or stereotypes based on observable characteristics such as race or gender in order to infer the likelihood that the applicant has a criminal history, thereby increasing racial or gender disparities beyond what they would have been had the employer been able to do a background check in the first instance.

Regardless of one’s views about this scholarly disagreement, scholars at The Heritage Foundation have noted that ban the box initiatives, while laudable, should remain voluntary because there are many good reasons why employers might want to ask job applicants about any potential criminal history. For example:

  • A criminal conviction is often relevant to job function. A business, for instance, might not want to hire someone who has been convicted of theft to run the cash register.
  • Businesses are often on the hook in tort law under a negligent hiring or vicarious liability theory if they put their customers in danger and harm occurs. For example, hiring a person convicted of multiple assaults might be dangerous if that person is going to be in a high-stress, client-facing job.
  • Whether it incurs liability or not, a business has its reputation on the line and could be harmed in the court of public opinion if it hires a released offender who then engages in misconduct.[8]

A Red Tape Nightmare

According to the National Employment Law Project, however, 24 states now require private employers to remove criminal record inquiries from their employment applications, and over 150 localities have also enacted some type of ban the box policy.[9]

A New York City ordinance, for example, makes it unlawful for any employer with four or more employees to “[m]ake any inquiry or statement related to the pending arrest or criminal conviction record of any person who is in the process of applying for employment with such employer or agent thereof until after such employer or agent thereof has extended a conditional offer of employment to the applicant.”[10] Such a prohibition could penalize an employer for asking any number of open-ended, seemingly innocent questions, such as:

  • “Tell me about a time you made a mistake.” (“I robbed a guy several years ago.”)
  • “Why is there a gap in your employment between [insert date] and [insert date]?” (“I was in prison.”)
  • “Are you willing to relocate?” and “Are you willing to travel?” (“I would have to check with my parole officer.”)
  • “What makes you uncomfortable?” (“Telling people about my criminal record.”)
  • “What was your biggest failure?” (“Getting convicted for selling drugs.”)

Each question could “relate” to criminal history, and each one appears on a Forbes list of “50 Most Common Interview Questions.”[11]

Even after a conditional job offer has been made, an employer in New York City has to cut through more red tape “before taking any adverse employment action based on” a post-conditional offer inquiry into criminal history, including “perform[ing] an analysis of the applicant under article twenty-three-a of the correction law and provid[ing] a written copy of such analysis to the applicant in a manner to be determined by the commission” while “allow[ing] the applicant…no less than three business days [to respond] and during this time, hold[ing] the position open for the applicant.”[12] According to the New York Daily News, the Mayor’s Counsel said that “[w]e want New Yorkers back to work.” However, “business groups slammed the bill, calling it an unnecessary burden that will open employers to junk lawsuits,”[13] since the ordinance authorizes a private right of action for ordinance violations—a potential field day for the plaintiffs’ bar and disappointed job applicants.

Yet New York’s ordinance is a compliance cakewalk in comparison to others, which have criminalized a private employer’s inquiry into a job applicant’s criminal history. According to a Baltimore ordinance, anyone who employs 10 or more “full-time equivalent employees in the City of Baltimore” is forbidden from taking any “direct or indirect conduct intended to gather information” with respect to whether a job applicant has a criminal record—at least, that is, until after the employer has made a conditional job offer. This language raises the same overbreadth problems contained in the New York City ordinance but goes a step further by making any violation of the ordinance a misdemeanor carrying potential criminal penalties of imprisonment for up to 90 days and a fine of up to $500.[14]

In 2014, the Columbia, Missouri, City Council unanimously approved a similar ordinance,[15] which applies to any private employer “who employs one (1) or more individuals within the jurisdiction of [the] city, exclusive of parents, spouse or children of such person, and any person acting directly in the interest of an employer.”[16] In Columbia, asking an applicant about his or her criminal history before a conditional job offer has been made is prohibited (subject to certain limited exceptions, such as when a local, state, or federal law or regulation requires specific employers to reject applicants with particular criminal convictions[17]). This was done in order to “create a more-level playing field for offenders who are looking for employment after incarceration.”[18] Leveling the playing field is certainly an apt analogy, considering the consequences: Any employer who does “inquire, question or otherwise seek information as to whether an applicant has ever been arrested for, charged with, or convicted of any crime [before] the applicant has received a conditional offer of employment”[19] “shall be deemed guilty of a misdemeanor,” punishable by fines up to $1,000, imprisonment for up to 30 days, or both.[20]

Neither the Baltimore ordinance nor the Columbia ordinance has any standard of criminal intent to distinguish those who stumble into a conversation about prior arrests from those who intentionally violate the law. The Supreme Court of the United States recently revitalized the fundamental presumption that a criminal conviction requires proof of criminal intent,[21] and in recent testimony before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey stated: “We don’t want to put people in jail unless we can prove they knew they were doing something they shouldn’t do.”[22] Yet under these ordinances, that is exactly what could happen.

The EEOC’s Controversial Enforcement Guidance

Employers who are covered under Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which prohibits discrimination based on race, color, religion, national origin, and sex,[23] should also be aware that the EEOC has adopted the controversial position that because African American and Hispanic men are arrested and convicted of crimes at a higher rate than white men, an employer’s use of background checks may be discriminatory if it disproportionately affects African American or Hispanic men when it comes to hiring, promotion, or retention decisions. In 2012, the EEOC published an Enforcement Guidance document[24] expressing the view that such a practice would constitute discrimination based on racial or national origin unless the employer can demonstrate that the practice of automatically excluding an applicant from being hired or an employee from being promoted or retained based on a criminal conviction is related to the position in question and consistent with business necessity. To satisfy this standard, the EEOC states that “the employer needs to show that the policy operates to effectively link specific criminal conduct, and its dangers, with the risks inherent in the duties of a particular position.”[25]

Moreover, the EEOC takes the position that exclusion based solely on an arrest record can never be job-related and consistent with business necessity.[26] In that document, the EEOC also laid out “best practices” for employers to follow to avoid liability under Title VII that include a detailed procedure for employers to follow in order to assess an individual job applicant’s criminal history.[27] The EEOC even went so far as to note that “[a]n employer’s evidence of a racially balanced workforce will not be enough to disprove disparate impact” if it can be shown that the practice deprived “a disproportionate number of Title VII-protected individuals of employment opportunities.”[28]

Some critics and commentators have expressed the view that the EEOC’s guidance rests on flawed assumptions about crime, recidivism, and small-business owners’ capacity to implement the details of EEOC policies.[29] Moreover, the West Virginia, Colorado, Alabama, Georgia, Kansas, Nebraska, Montana, South Carolina, and Utah Attorneys General signed a letter to the EEOC Chair to express three main concerns:

  • By following state and local law that differs from EEOC policy, covered employers could be found liable for discrimination under Title VII;
  • Insofar as that proves to be true, the EEOC’s guidance violates the sovereignty of states to administer their own law and policy; and
  • The EEOC’s “true purpose may not be the correct enforcement of the law, but rather the illegitimate expansion of Title VII protection to former criminals.”[30]

The EEOC Chair’s response was hardly reassuring. In a letter to the nine state attorneys general, she stated that “it is not illegal for employers to conduct or use the results of criminal background checks,” and the 2012 guidance “does not supersede any state or local laws” on that issue; yet “Title VII does” supersede all state and local law that “requires or permits an act that is inconsistent with the federal statute,” and “the EEOC’s Guidance is simply reciting and applying the text of Title VII, which sets forth the principle that federal law preempts contradictory state or local law.”[31] Her letter concludes with a reference to “two recently-filed EEOC lawsuits” against private employers which “challenge criminal history screening processes that the Commission alleges have a disproportionate impact on African-Americans and are not job related and consistent with business necessity, in violation of Title VII.”[32]

Is the EEOC’s Enforcement Guidance Binding?

The State of Texas responded to this by filing a lawsuit in the United States District Court for the Northern District of Texas seeking a declaration that the EEOC’s guidance is an unlawful end-run around the Administrative Procedure Act, which, among its other purposes, sets the rules for agency rulemaking.[33] The district court ruled that the state lacked standing to bring its case.[34]

On appeal, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals disagreed, holding that Texas has standing to seek relief in federal court.[35] The court described the EEOC’s Enforcement Guidance as “a policy statement couched in mandatory language that is intended to apply to all employers” and observed that the EEOC never “contended that it does not intend to follow the Guidance to its full extent.”[36] The court scolded the EEOC for “nevertheless arguing that the Guidance cannot be reviewed,” noting that “the EEOC exploits the limitations of its enforcement authority, while denying that state agencies will face legal consequences should they fail to follow the Enforcement Guidance’s directives.”[37]

However, the court has since withdrawn that opinion, vacated the district court’s judgment, and instructed the district court to reconsider the case “in its entirety”[38] in light of the United States Supreme Court’s recent holding in a case with similar issues. In U.S. Army Corps of Engineers v. Hawkes Co.,[39] the Supreme Court held that an agency guidance document known as a “jurisdictional determination,” which the Army Corps of Engineers issued under the Clean Water Act, was subject to judicial review.[40] Texas’s case remains pending.

The EEOC did suffer a stinging rebuke, however, in a federal case it filed against a private employer alleging that the employer’s use of background checks was racially discriminatory because of the disparate impact it had on African American job applicants. In EEOC v. Freeman, United States District Court Judge Roger Titus dismissed the case, concluding that the report by the EEOC’s expert contained a “mind-boggling number of errors” and was fatally flawed.[41] In his opinion, which was affirmed on appeal,[42] Judge Titus added that there were many legitimate business reasons to conduct background checks on job applicants, stating:

For many employers, conducting a criminal history or credit record background check on a potential employee is a rational and legitimate component of a reasonable hiring process. The reasons for conducting such checks are obvious. Employers have a clear incentive to avoid hiring employees who have a proven tendency to defraud or steal from their employers, engage in workplace violence, or who otherwise appear to be untrustworthy and unreliable.[43]

It is unclear, of course, whether the EEOC will continue to adhere to this controversial Enforcement Guidance in the new Administration. For now at least, employers risk the possibility of a lawsuit if they fail to follow the EEOC’s guidance document.

Conclusion

As many believe and some employers can attest, banning the box may be a good idea both from a moral perspective and as a business strategy, but whether or not to do so is a decision that should be left up to each employer. Moreover, if a state or locality decides, however unwisely, to mandate a ban the box policy, it should certainly not turn violations into criminal offenses, which would only serve to fuel the burgeoning problem of overcriminalization.

*About the authors:
John G. Malcolm is the Director of and Ed Gilbertson and Sherry Lindberg Gilbertson Senior Legal Fellow in the Edwin Meese III Center for Legal and Judicial Studies, of the Institute for Constitutional Government, at The Heritage Foundation. John-Michael Seibler is a legal fellow in the Meese Center.

Source:
This article was published by The Heritage Foundation

Notes:
[1] One study found that having a criminal record can reduce the likelihood of receiving a callback or job offer by nearly 50 percent. Devah Pager, Bruce Western, & Naomi Sugie, Sequencing Disadvantage: Barriers to Employment Facing Young Black and White Men with Criminal Records, 623 Annals Am. Acad. 195, 199 (2009), https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3583356/.

[2] The White House Office of the Press Secretary, FACT SHEET: President Obama Announces New Actions to Promote Rehabilitation and Reintegration for the Formerly-Incarcerated (Nov. 2, 2015), available at http://bit.ly/1OiRbfS.

[3] Take the Fair Chance Pledge, The White House, https://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/criminal-justice/fair-chance-pledge (last visited Nov. 6, 2016).

[4] Why Koch Industries “Banned the Box”, Wall St. J. (Aug. 17, 2016), http://on.wsj.com/2bDbaZJ.

[5] Mark T. Berg & Beth M. Huebner, Reentry and the Ties that Bind: An Examination of Social Ties, Employment, and Recidivism, 28 Just. Q. 382 (2011), http://bit.ly/2h3Q35y.

[6] Southern Coalition for Social Justice, The Benefits of Ban The Box: A Case Study of Durham, NC (2014), available at http://www.southerncoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/BantheBox_WhitePaper-2.pdf.

[7] Alana Samuels, When Banning One Kind of Discrimination Results in Another, Atlantic (Aug. 4, 2016), http://theatln.tc/2ayJdNT; see also Amanda Y. Agan & Sonja B. Starr, Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Statistical Discrimination: A Field Experiment (U. Mich. L. & Econ. Res., Paper No. 16-012, 2016), https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2795795; Jennifer L. Doleac, “Ban the Box” Does More Harm than Good, Brookings Inst. (May 31, 2016), http://brook.gs/2fpGISb; Jennifer L. Doleac & Benjamin Hansen, Does “Ban the Box” Help or Hurt Low-skilled Workers?—Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories Are Hidden (Nat’l Bureau Econ. Res., Working Paper No. 22469, 2016), http://jenniferdoleac.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Doleac_Hansen_BanTheBox.pdf; Harry J. Holzer, Steven Raphael, & Michael A. Stoll, Perceived Criminality, Criminal Background Checks, and the Racial Hiring Practices of Employers, 49 J. L. & Econ. 451 (2006), http://economicgrowthdc.org/work/assets/Perceived-Criminality-Hiring-Study.pdf; Michael A. Stoll, Ex-Offenders, Criminal Background Checks, and Racial Consequences in the Labor Market, 2009 U. Ch. Legal F. 381 (2009), http://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1447&context=uclf.

[8] Andrew Kloster & Micah Wallen, Should the Government Ask Job Applicants If They Are Felons? The Pros and Cons, Daily Signal (Nov. 4, 2015), http://bit.ly/1HgWMB3.

[9] Beth Avery & Michelle N. Rodriguez, Ban the Box: U.S. Cities, Counties, and States Adopt Fair Hiring Policies, Nat’l Emp. L. Project (Oct. 1, 2016), http://bit.ly/2e6ezgy; Ban the Box Laws Across the Country, Bus. & Legal Resources, http://hr.blr.com/state-comparison-charts/Ban-the-Box-laws-across-the-country (last visited Dec. 2, 2016).

[10] New York, N.Y., Ordinance 2015/063 (June 29, 2015), available at http://legistar.council.nyc.gov/LegislationDetail.aspx?ID=1739365&GUID=EF70B69C-074A-4B8E-9D36-187C76BB1098.

[11] Jaquelyn Smith, How to Ace the 50 Most Common Interview Questions, Forbes (Jan. 11, 2013), http://bit.ly/2fRbC99.

[12] New York, N.Y., Ordinance 2015/063, supra note 10.

[13] Erin Durkin, Mayor’s Office Supports Ban Against Asking About Convictions, N.Y. Daily News (Dec. 4, 2014), http://nydn.us/1LXz2PZ.

[14] Baltimore, Md., City Code art. 11, §§ 15(1)–(16) (2014), available at http://ca.baltimorecity.gov/codes/Art%2011%20-%20Labor&Emp.pdf.

[15] See Andrew Denney, Columbia City Council Unanimously Approves “Ban the Box”, Columbia Daily Tribune (Dec. 2, 2014), http://bit.ly/1Bht9e4.

[16] Columbia, Mo., Code of Ordinances ch. 12, art. V, § 12-32, §§ 12-90–12-94 (2014), available at https://www.municode.com/library/mo/columbia/codes/code_of_ordinances?nodeId=PTIICOOR_CH12HURE_ARTVEMOPQUAP_S12-94PEVIAR.

[17] See id. The process of discerning whether such laws or regulations even exist may not be so easy or inexpensive. As The Wall Street Journal reported in 2015, “[w]ith a federal grant, the American Bar Association spent more than four years looking through federal and state laws and regulations for [civil laws and regulations related to] criminal convictions. Researchers found more than 46,000 of them, about 60% to 70% of which are employment-related. Experts estimate tens of thousands more are embedded in local ordinances.” Joe Palazzolo, 5 Things to Know About Collateral Consequences, Wall St. J. (May 17, 2015), http://on.wsj.com/2frOdKQ.

[18] Denney, supra note 15.

[19] Columbia, Mo., Code of Ordinances ch. 12, art. V, § 12-90 (2014).

[20] Id. at § 12-94.

[21] Paul J. Larkin, Jr., Jordan Richardson, & John-Michael Seibler, The Supreme Court on Mens Rea: 2008–2015, Heritage Foundation Legal Memorandum No. 171 (Jan. 14, 2016), available at http://bit.ly/2eduJJX.

[22] Cameron Joseph, State Department Reopens Hillary Clinton Email Probe, N.Y. Daily News (July 8, 2016), http://nydn.us/29zmFBP; see also Oversight of the State Dept.: Hearing Before the Full House Comm. on Oversight and Gov’t Reform, 114th Cong. (2016), available at https://oversight.house.gov/hearing/oversight-state-department/.

[23] U.S. Equal Emp’t Opportunity Comm’n, About EEOC, https://www.eeoc.gov/eeoc/index.cfm (last visited Nov. 7, 2016); EEOC, Coverage, https://www.eeoc.gov/employees/coverage.cfm (last visited Nov. 7, 2016).

[24] See generally U.S. Equal Emp’t Opportunity Comm’n, Enforcement Guidance on the Consideration of Arrest and Conviction Records in Employment Decisions Under Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 (2012), http://www.eeoc.gov/laws/guidance/arrest_conviction.cfm (hereinafter Enforcement Guidance). The EEOC bases its discrimination analysis on disparate impact theory, arguing that the use of criminal background checks has a “disproportionate impact” on African Americans. See id.; Griggs v. Duke Power Company, 401 U.S. 424, 431–32 (1971) (cited in Enforcement Guidance as authority to bring disparate impact claims under Title VII).

[25] Enforcement Guidance, supra note 24, at 14.

[26] Id. at 12.

[27] Id. at 25.

[28] Id. at 10.

[29] See U.S. Comm. on Civil Rights, Assessing the Impact of Criminal Background Checks and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission’s Conviction Records Policy, 289 (2013) (statement of Commissioner Peter N. Kirsanow, joined by Vice Chair Abigail Thernstrom and Commissioner Todd Gaziano), available at http://www.eusccr.com/EEOC_final_2013.pdf. In turn, many employers are right to be concerned that the EEOC policies could increase the risk of liability under Title VII. See Hans A. von Spakovsky, The Dangerous Impact of Barring Criminal Background Checks: Congress Needs to Overrule the EEOC’s New Employment “Guidelines,” Heritage Foundation Legal Memorandum No. 81 (May 31, 2012), available at http://bit.ly/2f7RLkJ (arguing that the “new Guidance places employers in a vicious ‘Catch 22’ situation: Business owners will have to choose between conducting criminal background checks and risking liability for supposedly violating Title VII or following the EEOC’s Guidance, abandoning background checks, and risking liability for criminal conduct by employees.”).

[30] Letter from Patrick Morrisey, Att’y Gen., State of W. Va., et al., to U.S. Equal Emp’t Opportunity Comm’n, 2–3 (July 24, 2013).

[31] Letter from Jacqueline A. Berrien, Chair, U.S. Equal Emp’t Opportunity Comm’n, to Nine State Att’ys Gen., What You Should Know: EEOC’s Response to Letter from State Attorneys General on Use of Criminal Background Checks in Employment (Aug. 29, 2013), available at https://www.eeoc.gov/eeoc/newsroom/wysk/criminal_background_checks.cfm#fn4.

[32] Id.

[33] See Texas v. E.E.O.C., No. 5:13-CV-255-C, 2014 WL 4782992, at *4 (N.D. Tex., Aug. 20, 2014), rev’d, Texas v. E.E.O.C., 827 F.3d 372 (5th Cir. 2016), reh’g en banc granted, opinion withdrawn, and vacated and remanded, Texas v. E.E.O.C., 838 F.3d 511 (5th Cir. 2016).

[34] Id.

[35] Texas v. E.E.O.C., 827 F.3d 372 (5th Cir. 2016).

[36] Id. at 387.

[37] Id.

[38] Texas v. E.E.O.C., 838 F.3d 511(5th Cir. 2016).

[39] 136 S.Ct. 1807 (2016).

[40] Id.; 838 F.3d 511.

[41] 961 F. Supp. 2d 783, 796 (D. Md. 2013).

[42] EEOC v. Freeman, 778 F.3d 463 (4th Cir. 2015).

[43] 961 F. Supp. 2d at 785.

Wealth Isn’t Just Measured In Money: It’s Measured In Choices – Analysis

$
0
0

By Jonathan Newman*

How do we compare wealth over time? I came across one fun fact recently about the highest-paid athlete of all time. The first names that come to your mind might be Tiger Woods, Michael Jordan, or Cam Newton. However, according to this source, the title belongs to Gaius Appuleius Diocles, a chariot racer of ancient Rome.

By comparing his prize money to the pay of Roman soldiers and extrapolating based on the pay of modern soldiers, the author arrives at the dubious modern equivalent of $15 billion dollars. For the sake of argument, let’s accept his calculation.

If this comparison is a fair one, Diocles would be richer than Elon Musk, Eric Schmidt, or Ralph Lauren.

Diocles Was Dirt Poor by Modern Standards

But it’s not a fair comparison. Nominal dollar figures are no good when it comes to comparing wealth over time, and the comparison becomes worse the larger the time difference. The reason is because wealth is not simply the money in your bank account, but what you can buy with your money.

Compare the wealth of a man stranded on a desert island with trillions of dollars and the wealth of a man with $100 in his pocket standing in a Walmart. Obviously the man who can spend his money on the goods he desires is the wealthier man.

Diocles is like the man stranded on the island. He had no air conditioning, car, internet access, antibiotics, or rock music. He had no Big Macs, Coca-Cola, Star Wars movies, or Colgate. By modern standards, Diocles was dirt poor.

Likewise, by ancient standards, many below the poverty line today are incredibly wealthy.

What Causes Prosperity?

I do not say this to minimize the importance of getting people out of poverty, however it is defined. I would like for everyone to be able to not only survive but enjoy their lives as much as possible. However, in discussions about income and wealth inequality and how they have changed over time, understanding the difference between real and nominal wealth gives some perspective.

Somebody with little more than a small rented apartment with central air and heat, running water, and electricity to power a small TV and various appliances is wealthier than even the kings of old.

Therefore, the important question we should be asking is not “how do we eliminate wealth and income disparities today?”, but “what caused the dramatic increase in standards of living for populations as a whole over the past few centuries?”

The answer is capital accumulation, international trade, industrialization, and unleashed entrepreneurship. Unfortunately these mechanisms of economic growth are often accused of “causing poverty” and creating the nominal income inequality we see today.

A Side Note on Income Inequality

Strictly defined, income and wealth inequality are essential features of the market economy. Every transaction involves somebody parting with some money and somebody receiving the same amount. Enforcing pure income inequality would mean banning all exchange.

Nevertheless, we can point to some causes of extreme income inequality. The Cantillon effects of monetary expansion explain how those closest to the money spigot are enriched at the expense of those who receive the new money last. The reason for this is because there is a time delay between the increase in prices and the increase in some people’s incomes, i.e., money is non-neutral. This was one of the key insights from Mises.

Monetary expansion creates nominal and real income inequality, beyond what would exist without artificial increases in the money supply. Counterfeiters are certainly capable of amassing real goods before they are caught, if they are caught.

Cantillon effects might explain why five of the top six counties ranked by median household income are just outside of Washingto, DC.

The top 100 counties by median household income. Source: Wikipedia

The top 100 counties by median household income. Source: Wikipedia

Real wealth is what matters and real wealth comes from production. Nominal figures cannot be used to compare the wealth of ancient people to modern people, for the simple reason that the goods and technologies we have available to us today surpass anything Diocles could have imagined.

About the author:
*Jonathan Newman
is a recent graduate of Auburn University and a Mises Institute Fellow. Contact: email

Source:
This article was published by the MISES Institute

Pentagon Finally Admits It Killed Women And Children In Yemen – OpEd

$
0
0

President Trump eluded the White House press corps Wednesday to helicopter off to Dover Air Force Base for the arrival of the body of Chief Petty Officer William (Ryan) Owens, who was killed in a US commando raid in Yemen over the weekend. It was the first on-the-ground US military operation authorized by President Trump since he took office on January 20th.

While Trump was mourning the first American military casualty of his presidency, families in Yemen were mourning the deaths of their civilian relatives in the US raid. At least 16 women and children were killed in the US military attack on Yemen.

The Pentagon at first did not admit any civilian casualties in the raid. Then, when pictures (caution) made their way to the Internet of slaughtered women and children, the Pentagon adjusted its story to make the outlandish claim that al-Qaeda had recruited women into its fighting ranks and it was those women who were killed in combat.

The women killed in the raid were not innocent civilians, claimed Pentagon spokesman Capt. Jeff Davis, “there were a lot of female combatants who were part of this.” The spokesman further stated, “take reports of female casualties with a grain of salt. Not all female casualties are civilian casualties. In many cases, and certainly in this one, females can be legitimate combatants.”

The excuse fell flat. In fact just last September, al-Qaeda criticized ISIS in its online magazine for allowing women to take part in combat.

Finally, after rounds of denial and cockamamie stories, the Pentagon came clean. In a statement late this afternoon, the US Central Command admitted that “a team designated by the operational task force commander has concluded regrettably that civilian non-combatants were likely killed in the midst of a firefight during a raid in Yemen Jan. 20. Casualties may include children.”

The Pentagon continued to insist, however, that there were women engaged in combat during the firefight.

We should recall that while the US claims it is attacking Yemen because of al-Qaeda’s presence in the country, the US has strongly backed Saudi Arabia’s war on the Shia-related Houthis who are mortal enemies of the Sunni jihadist al-Qaeda.

In fact, the US war in Yemen looks more like a US proxy war against Iran – a proxy war that may soon become a real war. Just today the President Trump’s National Security Advisor warned Iran over a Houthi retaliatory strike on a Saudi warship off of Yemen’s coast. Blaming Iran for the Houthi attack on a Saudi warship is bogus: as investigative reporter Gareth Porter pointed out today, even the US intelligence community has rejected the notion that the Houthis are an Iran proxy.

War goes on it never ends…

This article was published by RonPaul Institute.

Viewing all 73722 articles
Browse latest View live




Latest Images