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Russia In Libya – Analysis

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By Giancarlo Elia Valori*

A few days ago the press reported that dozens of Russian military “contractors”, supplied by the RSB Group, were already operating in Eastern Libya to remove mines from the areas around Benghazi, in a region recently freed from jihadists by the armed forces of Khalifa Haftar, who ever more seems to be the pivot of Russian geopolitics in Libya. These reports run by the press are of great strategic relevance.

After all Russia does not want to commit the primary mistake made by the United Nations and Western countries, that is to choose – from the outset – their “horse” in the person of the weak Fajez al-Sarraj.

In fact Tripoli’s leader was invited to Russia in early March 2017. On that occasion Vladimir Putin clearly told him that Russia was present in Libya to remedy the UN and NATO “barbaric aggression” of 2011 and that it wanted to help all parties – namely al-Sarraj’s GNA, as well as Khalifa al-Ghawil’s government and the other non-jihadist factions – to “rebuild the Libyan State.”

Russia does not want to bring imaginative “democracies”, but it wants to rebuild the Libyan State against the jihad and establish a positive economic and strategic relationship with the Russian Federation.

Certainly Russia does not want a “Western protectorate” in all or part of Libya.

Moreover, from the US viewpoint, it should be noted that Daesh-Isis has not yet been defeated either in Libya or elsewhere, considering that the US or the other allies’ air strikes have certainly “reduced” – but not fully eliminated – the Caliphate’s offensive potential in the Sirte region. It should also be noted that, in the near future, Daesh-Isis will certainly join forces with the Al-Qaeda network, thus recreating its military bases and activities by means of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb or the Qaedist networks of Sudan and sub-Saharan Africa.

A strategic and territorial continuity stretching from the Sirte region up to the Boko Haram’s networks in Nigeria.

Furthermore, both the United States and its allies have put in place – in Libya and against Isis – a strategy which is bound to fail: Westerners have supported their allied Libyan factions on the ground and have only tried to eliminate the leaders of the terrorist organization with targeted actions.

Leaders come and go, while the great organizational and military networks of the jihad must be definitely broken and not just “contained”.

The guerrilla warfare or jihad are not based on the number of their militants, but on the quality of their actions.

A “containment” logic which cannot work in the presence of autonomous regional systems and global allies, such as the other NATO countries.

Everyone has its own project: Italians want the ENI oil, which is theirs, and they want to avoid mass migration originating from the Libyan coast. The French people want the Italian oil and the Mediterranean military network of the old Gaddafi’s Libya. The Germans are not very interested in the issue. However, what about the Americans? We do not know yet exactly what they want.

In any case, proxies, namely the small regional allies, must not be used to fight our wars and secure our interests.

In the case of Libya, finally the issue lies in avoiding it becoming the reference point of the whole jihad, a few nautical miles from Italy and, hence, from Europe and from the Atlantic Alliance’s military bases.

Therefore it is enough for Isis to stand still – while the Libyan non-jihadist factions fight each other and the United States decides to help one group or the other fighting also Isis – and then rise again undisturbed when the American aid ceases and the local militias go away or are too weak to react and fight back.

Meanwhile, the Russian Federation – through Rosneft – has signed an oil deal with the Libyan NOC, considering that Russia is well aware of the fact that – even after the completion of the current de-globalization phase – oil will be the key asset, the “absolute commodity” – just to put it in Karl Marx’s words – also in the future.

In other words, Russia is operating in Libya more or less in the way in which it has succeeded in entering the great Syrian game, that is mainly by means of the evident big mistakes made by Western powers.

In Syria, the United States, at first, and then all its allies, ever less able to implement a real foreign policy or to think strategically, have supported “moderate Islamists” – always assuming that this expression has a meaning – only to overthrow Bashar al-Assad and recreate, also in Syria, the silly chaos following the “Arab springs”.

The idea that it is enough to send a “tyrant” away – possibly with a few artfully manipulated demonstrations – to solve everything, is frankly ridiculous.

It is geopolitics typical of 1968-inspired activists who aged badly.

If you had permanently destabilized Syria, Iran would have intervened immediately – as, indeed, it did later jointly with Russians and the Alawites of Assad’ Syrian Arab Army – not to mention what would have happened in the Lebanon and, hence, in Israel.

Therefore Russia immediately sensed the Westerners’ silly naivety and came into play, thus winning the game.

The same is happening also in Libya: NATO and the United Nations strenuously defend the GNA of al-Sarraj, who just rules in the palace where his government is established and pays a high price for the support of some militias (indeed, a price we pay).

Conversely Russia will be the welcome and credible broker, the mediator who will put an end to the tension between al-Sarraj and Khalifa Haftar, by interacting with both of them and thus rebuilding a stable central area for the future reconstruction of the Libyan State.

Meanwhile, an ally of the Russian Federation, namely Egypt, is managing an agreement among all Libyan factions, which envisages general elections to be held in February 2018.

If Russia supports the project, the chances of going to the polls are very high.

Maybe Haftar himself will play the Russian card also to have credible support from the new US President, but probably the Head of “Operation Dignity” does not want to reach a deal with al-Sarraj, but only wait for the leader, who is too much loved by Westerners and the United States, to weaken further.

In fact, the meeting between Haftar and Fajez al-Sarraj, scheduled in Cairo on February 14, did not take place, precisely due to Haftar’s refusal to meet with the GNA leader.

Therefore we can say that the Russian and Egyptian support to Haftar is inevitable, considering the GNA government’s increasing weakness and evident factionalism, but it also enables the Head of “Operation Dignity” to believe in a victory on the battlefield, which would make the current political negotiations useless.

Nobody is interested in giving Libya to another Rais.

The operation that freed the city of Sirte from ISIS, known as “Al Bunyan Al Marsous” finally saw many factions – particularly from Misrata and even some Salafists opposed to the Caliphate – operating on the ground.

The United States and its Western allies supported the “Al Bunyan Al Marsous” operation mainly with air bombings. In fact the Americans made at least 300 strikes with their Air Force, while Great Britain trained and supported Misrata forces and Italy built a field hospital for the wounded in action.

In that case, however, the Westerners’ goal was not so much to fight against Isis, which is considered a too strong and localized power, but rather to support al-Sarraj by securing for him control over an important city such as Misrata.

In other words, the West must stop playing with only one Libyan ally, but it must rather combine – as much as possible – the military activities and operations of all Libyan factions, as well as support some local leaders’ efforts in building a united, but decentralized, State so as to avoid counting – in the future – the losers and the winners of the long war between factions. The West must also support the new State financially, possibly with aid and with particularly friendly oil deals, and finally avoid the future recurrence of the asymmetry between Tripolitania and Cyrenaica, with the East believing – rightly or wrongly – to be marginalized.

Meanwhile, Russia will have its military bases in Cyrenaica, which will serve to marginalize NATO and control the North African hinterland.

About the author:
*Professor Giancarlo Elia Valori
is an eminent Italian economist and businessman. He holds prestigious academic distinctions and national orders. Mr Valori has lectured on international affairs and economics at the world’s leading universities such as Peking University, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Yeshiva University in New York. He currently chairs “La Centrale Finanziaria Generale Spa”, he is also the honorary president of Huawei Italy, economic adviser to the Chinese giant HNA Group and member of the Ayan-Holding Board. In 1992 he was appointed Officier de la Légion d’Honneur de la République Francaise, with this motivation: “A man who can see across borders to understand the world” and in 2002 he received the title of “Honorable” of the Académie des Sciences de l’Institut de France.

Source:
This article was published by Modern Diplomacy


Russians May Take Over Croatia’s Agrokor

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By Sven Milekic

A partial takeover by Russian state banks of the biggest private company in Croatia would have momentous consequences but ‘cannot be ruled out’, an economist has suggested.

A Croatian economic analyst told BIRN that Russia’s state-owned bank Sberbank and VTB Bank may take over partial ownership and management of troubled Agrokor, the biggest private company in Croatia.

It “can’t be ruled out”, economic analyst Guste Santini told BIRN.

Agrokor, which is facing a financial crisis due to large debts and lowered credit ratings, owes 1.3 billion euros to Russian banks.

Media reports on Friday said that Sberbank had approved another 300 million euros in loans to Agrokor, to help the company pay its employees and suppliers.

The Croatian newspaper Novi list reported on Friday that Russian creditors, along with others creditors, may change the ownership and the management of the company, now in the hands of the Croatian owner and founder, Ivica Todoric.

“In a situation like this, it [a partial takeover] can’t be ruled out. It wouldn’t be an extraordinary example in the world or in Croatia for that matter,” Santini told BIRN.

“We can expect certain political consequences if such an important company partially comes into the hands of Russian state-owned banks,” he added.

Santini said Agrokor was too important a company for Croatia, the region – and for its creditors – to be allowed to go bankrupt.

“Sberbank is in direct communication with Agrokor, however, we cannot comment in detail on the relationships with our clients,” Sberbank told BIRN on Friday, when asked to comment on reports of the 300-million-euros loan to Agrokor.

On Tuesday, N1 media outlet reported that Croatian government officials secretly met Todoric in the government building on March 5. Under pressure from the media, the government admitted holding meetings with the troubled company.

N1 also reported that government officials met representatives of Sberbank – a meeting that neither the government nor the bank has confirmed.

The company’s role in the economy of Croatia is massive, with revenues of 6.5 billion euros in 2015 – almost 16 per cent of Croatia’s total GDP – and around 40,000 employees.

Agrokor employs another 20,000 people in neighbouring Bosnia and Serbia while it is believed that suppliers and companies for the Slovenian retailer Mercator – which it bought in 2014 – employ around 70,000 people in Slovenia as well.

The company’s main problem is its accumulated debts. Borrowings at the end of 2016 stood at 3.4 billion euros while its total debt was estimated at some 6 billion euros, almost six or even seven times higher than its estimated total capital, which is put at slightly over 1 billion euros.

How ‘Family First’ Works Out For All Shareholders

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Blood is thicker than water — even in corporate governance. For publicly traded family firms, familial control, influence and/or image may be prioritized over near-term profits. This may be why tensions and conflicts between family members and minority shareholders have long been assumed.

But is this assumption true? Research by Geoffrey Martin, Luis R. Gómez-Mejía, Pascual Berrone and Marianna Makri says no — except under specific circumstances. In sum, they find that the fears of conflict-ridden boards are “much ado about nothing,” to borrow from Shakespeare. And their study aligns with a growing body of research that essentially says: what’s good for the family often ends up good for all shareholders as well.

Divergent Goals, Danger Zones?

As Berrone et al.’s previous research has shown, family businesses tend to make decisions that favor “socioemotional wealth” — i.e., the accumulation of noneconomic assets, such as social influence, reputation and binding family ties. That is to say, family firms may prioritize goals that do not directly reflect the priorities of shareholders who are not part of the clan.

So, in publicly traded family firms, do minority shareholders express their discontent through contentious proposals that question the owners’ policies?

For the answer, the co-authors studied thousands of shareholder proposals brought to hundreds of family-controlled firms over 10 years. The shareholder proposals in three typically conflict-prone areas were studied:

1. Contract issues — including hiring, firing and pay.

2. Strategic choices — including decisions about acquisitions, diversification and divestitures.

3. Corporate social responsibility (CSR) — including projects that uphold a good family image without economic benefit.

In addition, they looked at conditions that could reasonably be expected to affect shareholder proposals: the firm’s financial performance, the presence of a family CEO at the helm, and whether the firm’s founder is still directly involved.

Much Ado or a Myth?

Crunching the numbers, the authors conclude that much of what is assumed about minority shareholders in family firms is myth. In their words: “our study makes it clear that minority shareholders as a whole do not generally feel `expropriated'” by family owners.

However, investor skepticism and conflicts do arise on occasion — as reflected in the number of board proposals to challenge the status quo. Specifically, the co-authors find that (a) when there is a family CEO at the helm, (b) when the founder is no longer involved and (c) when the firm is performing poorly, there are more shareholder proposals regarding contract issues, strategic choices and CSR projects in family firms. These conditions seem to lead investors to question whether the owners really have their best interests at heart.

Yet these conditions do not appear too often because “in general family firms perform better [than nonfamily firms].” Indeed, since “family first” priorities do not preclude healthy financial returns over the long run, minority shareholders may find very little to complain about.

Methodology, Very Briefly

Using data from Compustat, Execucomp and the Corporate Library databases, the co-authors studied companies that were publicly traded in the United States between 2001 and 2010 (the years for which the Corporate Library database included details concerning firm ownership and shareholder proposals). Their sample ended up being 543 firm years to analyze the conditions surrounding shareholder proposals, controlling for certain variables — such as firm size and age.

What’s Behind FBI Case Against Russian Hackers? – OpEd

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Two and half years ago, Yahoo! suffered one of the worst attacks in history, as hackers gained access to some 500 million accounts. In a disclosure last September,  the company indicated that data including names, email addresses, telephone numbers, birth dates, encrypted passwords and, in some cases, security questions — was compromisedby what it believed was a “state-sponsored actor.” That state-sponsored actor turned out to be Russia.

It was big news this week then when the FBI announced indictments against two FSB agents and two hackers, “marking the first U.S. criminal cyber charges ever against Russian government officials.”

But for many watchers, it seemed like odd timing. In the midst of multiple congressional probes into foreign interference in the 2016 elections, accusations of hacking into the DNC, among sundry other conspiracy theories surrounding Russia, this seemed like an odd case.

Was this just another way for the FBI to take action on Russian hacking without having to wade into the messier political ties? Not exactly – one of those charged, Dmitry Dokuchaev, had already been previously arrested in Moscow in December for being the handler of a hacking collective that was accused of breaking into the accounts of other Russian officials.

Typical infighting among clans and security agencies in Russia usually doesn’t end up producing foreign criminal charges, but that may be changing. Andrew Roth, writing in the Washington Post, points to an externalization of the dispute:

A Russian businessman who had specialized in spam and malware had claimed for years that Mikhailov was trading information on cybercriminals with the West. Mikhailov had reportedly testified in the case of Pavel Vrublevsky, the former head of the payment services company Chronopay, who was imprisoned in 2013 for ordering a denial of service attack on the website of Aeroflot, the Russian national airline. Vrublevsky claimed then that Mikhailov began exchanging information about Russian cybercriminals with Western intelligence agencies, including documents about Chronopay. Brian Krebs, an American journalist who investigates cybercrime and received access to Vrublevsky’s emails, wrote in January: “Based on how long Vrublevsky has been trying to sell this narrative, it seems he may have finally found a buyer.”

It will be interesting to see if this becomes a trend.

Palestinian President Abbas Rewards Ousted UN Official With Highest Honor

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President Mahmoud Abbas on Saturday said he would award the highest Palestinian medal to former UN official Rima Khalaf for her courageous stand for Palestinians, local media reported.

Abbas informed Khalaf about his decision in a telephone conversation in which he congratulated her for standing for humanity, true values and loyalty to international law, State news agency, Wafa, reported.

Khalaf resigned Friday from her post as Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for the Western Asia (ESCWA) after UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres forced her to withdraw a report that accused Israel of operating an “apartheid” regime.

Abbas said Palestinians appreciated Khalaf’s humanitarian and national stances as she refused to cover up crimes committed by the Israeli occupying authority against the Palestinian people.

The ESCWA report released Wednesday said Israel “established an apartheid regime that dominates the Palestinian people as a whole” and that there was “overwhelming evidence” Israel had committed the “crime of apartheid”.

On the same day of the report’s release, Khalaf said the “ignorance of the international community” in recent decades had “encouraged Israel to continue its abuses of international law”.

The ESCWA report was prepared by Richard Falk, an international law expert and former UN human rights rapporteur for the occupied Palestinian territories and, Virginia Tilley, a political science professor and Israeli affairs expert.

Established in 1973 to promote economic and social development among member states, ESCWA is currently comprised of 18 Arab nations.

Original source

UNESCO Pits Media Development Against Fake News – Analysis

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By Guy Berger*

While global controversies around “fake news” continue unabated, UNESCO holds two events at its Paris HQ this week which will give more insight into the issues.

First up is an annual meeting on media development, held by the eight UNESCO Member States who serve on the Bureau of the International Programme for the Development of Communication (IPDC).

Immediately after their meeting on March 21-22 is a colloquium titled “Journalism under fire: challenges of our time”. This second event was inspired by earlier discussion of “fake news” at a meeting of the IPDC’s governing Council in November 2016.

Back in 1980, UNESCO Member States set up the IPDC as a response to the New World Information and Communication Order debate on imbalances in global communication flows. Over the years, the Programme has mobilised millions of dollars to promote media in developing countries.

But what’s the role of a UN media development programme today, in the age of cellphones, social media and massive pollution of the information environment? And in a time of the global Sustainable Development Goals?

These questions will be partly addressed in the IPDC Bureau decisions on allocating a finite budget to 114 media projects which have asked for small grants to strengthen their operations.

One request comes from the Press Union of Liberia which, ahead of the country’s elections this October, wants to train 50 reporters and bloggers in conflict-sensitive journalism.

In Myanmar, the Independent Ethnic Media Alliance (IEMA) is seeking support to build up local media capacity to deliver news to women and young people in information-poor local communities.

In the face of gang violence, El Salvador’s Association of Journalists (APES) hopes to get support for a package of actions to improve the safety of journalists under threat.

None of these projects is about “fake news”. But they are inversely connected to it – precisely because they are about the difference that real journalism – careful, credible and inclusive journalism – can make to societies.

Each project’s dream, in its own small way, amounts to a contribution to the Sustainable Development Target (number 16.10) of “public access to information and fundamental freedoms”, and to many other of the SDG targets.

Nine projects proposed to the IPDC are about investigative journalism training; another nine deal with training journalists to report on climate change and environment issues. Ring a bell in terms of the SDG goals on addressing inequality and climate issues?

The project proposals include 23 that aim to strengthen community radio, and another 21 that aim to advance gender equality in and through media. Key parts of sustainable development.

Sixteen project proposals are about protecting journalists – already a major concern worldwide that is being exacerbated by weaponising the label of “fake news” to discredit and intimidate authentic news media.

However, the tough fundraising climate means that the IPDC Bureau has just $700, 000 to allocate, in comparison to the 114 projects’ budgets in total which amount to $3 million in requests.

In part, the lack of funds is because some donor states don’t yet fully grasp the importance of media development. Others want more individual leverage when it comes to development funding, preferring this over working via a multi-lateral mechanism like the IPDC.

Meanwhile, it is precisely the IPDC mechanism that helps to depoliticise development aid. It is the same mechanism which – through an intergovernmental stamp of approval – opens doors in countries that are otherwise wary about foreign funding to media.

For 2017, the IPDC Bureau will do what it can, by making hard priority decisions so that at least some of the submitted project ideas receive the means to become realities.

Meanwhile, the need for media development, and not only in developing countries, will infuse the “Journalism Under Fire” colloquium on March 23 after the IPDC Bureau meeting.

To be opened by Irina Bokova, Director-General of UNESCO, the colloquium considers the rise of identity politics in terms of which emotions and trust end up trumping facts and rational discourse.

The event involves leading intellectuals and journalists from across the globe who will debate the place of social networks and computer-driven distribution systems in “post-truth” and “fake news” politics.

There will be attention to whether fact-checking agencies are effective in the short term. And to how long term media and information literacy – especially amongst young people – can promote critical perspectives about consuming and sharing content on the Internet.

Also on the programme is a panel dedicated to the paradox of weakening economic underpinnings of journalism at the very moment in history when misinformation and disinformation are rampant.

It is a discussion that directly links “fake news” back to the issue of media development.

If quality journalism is the best bulwark against the flood of lies and prejudices currently inundating humanity’s knowledge environment, we have to find ways to support it. Simply, we can’t do sustainable development without decent information resources.

In this endeavour, more funding for media development, via IPDC as well as many other modalities, is essential.

On the positive side, it is becoming clearer each day that only a free, sustainable and independent media can furnish societies with verifiable news and informed opinion, both online and offline.

So if we really want to tackle humanity’s global problems as per the SDGs, media development must be a key pillar of our agenda.

*Guy Berger is Director, Division of Freedom of Expression and Media Development.

Genetically Guided Warfarin Dosing Lowers Risk Of Some Adverse Events

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Using genetic testing to help personalize doses of warfarin therapy given to patients undergoing elective orthopedic surgery appears to lower the risk of combined adverse events compared with clinically guided dosing, according to research presented at the American College of Cardiology’s 66th Annual Scientific Session. Researchers said these findings could have implications for a broad population of patients starting warfarin therapy.

Warfarin, used to thin the blood, is widely prescribed to prevent clots that can cause stroke, deep vein thrombosis (DVT) or pulmonary embolism (PE), a blood clot in the lung. The challenge with warfarin, however, is finding the right dose: too much can cause dangerous bleeding, too little may leave people at risk for blood clots. As a result, people taking warfarin for a variety of indications, such as atrial fibrillation, orthopedic surgery or mechanical heart valves need regular blood testing to monitor how quickly their blood clots, called their INR, or international normalized ratio. An INR of four or higher denotes a high risk of serious bleeding. In addition, certain medications, alcohol and foods can affect the way warfarin works, as can variants in certain genes now known to influence warfarin sensitivity and metabolism.

The Genetic InFormatics Trial (GIFT) of Warfarin Therapy to Prevent DVT—the first trial to quantify the benefit of pharmacogenetic dosing of warfarin on clinical events—found that genotype-guided dosing was associated with a 27 percent reduction in the study’s primary endpoint—a composite of death, confirmed venous thromboembolism, warfarin overdose (INR ≥ 4), and major bleeding—compared with those receiving clinically based dosing. Because there were no deaths during the trial, researchers were unable to assess whether genotype-guided dosing reduced mortality.

“The way we dose warfarin clinically is trial-and-error dosing. We often start patients on 5 mg daily and don’t find out who is very sensitive to warfarin until their INR is four or more, indicating an overdose,” said Brian F. Gage, MD, MSc, professor of medicine at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis, and the study’s lead author. “Based on our results, as compared with optimized clinical dosing, pharmacogenetic dosing did better overall, meaning this group of patients had a lower rate of adverse events.”

Gage said the clinical dosing used in this trial was likely better than standard dosing because it used a computer-based, real-time interface that estimated the therapeutic dose and provided recommendations for adjusting dose based on a patient’s age, height, weight, interactions with other medications and other clinical factors. The trial also showed a statistically significant improvement in INR control, the study’s secondary endpoint, among patients whose warfarin dose was determined based on genetic information in addition to clinical factors. Previous studies had shown mixed results as to whether genotype-guided dosing improved INR control; however, Gage said compared with previous studies, the GIFT trial was considerably larger, added another gene (CYP4F2), and recruited older patients (65 years and older) at high risk of bleeding.

“Before GIFT, we had a good idea of how these genes and clinical factors affected the dose of warfarin. What we didn’t know is whether taking genotype into account improved outcomes,” Gage said. “It turns out that the genes that regulate warfarin metabolism and sensitivity and vitamin K use are highly variable, so we can’t simply look at patients and predict their therapeutic warfarin dose.”

This multicenter, randomized controlled trial followed 1,597 participants 65 years or older undergoing elective knee or hip replacement surgery (63.8 percent women, 91.1 percent Caucasian). Most of the patients were recruited at the Hospital for Special Surgery in New York City, Washington University in St. Louis, and the University of Utah and Intermountain Healthcare in Salt Lake City. Gage said orthopedic patients are at high risk of both bleeding and clotting and are routinely given an anticoagulant after hip or knee replacement, allowing researchers to determine whether genotype-guided dosing reduced post-operative adverse events. Participants were genotyped for genetic variants that influence warfarin sensitivity (CYP2C9*2, CYP2C9*3), warfarin metabolism (VKORC1) and vitamin K recycling (CYP4F2).

Patients were randomized to receive clinical dosing or genotype-guided dosing (in addition to clinical factors being taken into account) by the algorithms; they were also randomly assigned to a target INR of either 1.8 or 2.5. For the first 11 days of therapy, warfarin dosing in both arms was guided by a web application (www.WarfarinDosing.org) that incorporated clinical factors in all patients and genotype in participants randomized to genotype-guided dosing. Most (94 percent) of the time, prescribers gave the dose that was recommended. After 11 days of therapy, they were free to continue the current warfarin dose, or make adjustments. Patients were monitored using standard INR testing and most participants underwent screening with lower extremity Doppler ultrasound three to seven weeks after arthroplasty to check for clots. Researchers followed participants for 90 days and assessed the primary outcome through day 30 (DVTs and PEs detected through day 60 also were included in the primary outcome).

The rate of adverse events was 14.7 percent in the clinical arm and 10.8 percent in the genotype-guided arm, a 27 percent relative risk reduction. There was a significant reduction in INR values ≥ 4: from 9.8 percent in the clinical arm to 6.9 percent with genotype-guided dosing. However, in looking at events by themselves, there was no significant reduction in DVT/PE or major bleeds between the two groups. At 30 days follow-up, no participant died and one was lost to follow-up.

“The GIFT trial is an example of personalized medicine,” Gage said. “If the patient stays in a safe INR range, warfarin is an incredibly effective and safe drug. By getting the dose approximately right, from the get-go, we’re less likely to have the patient overdose and can lower the risk of complications. This approach is especially important for older patients. Warfarin is the medication that is most likely to cause elderly patients to go to the emergency room.”

Gage said that future research could combine GIFT with prior pharmacogenetic trials in a meta-analysis and should determine what other genetic variations predict response to anticoagulants. Additionally, as clinical and genetic factors affecting warfarin dose requirements vary by race, there may be benefit of dosing algorithms tailored to ancestry.

Gage said he hopes that genetic and clinical dosing algorithms will be integrated within electronic medical records.

“The hope is that when a physician starts a prescription of warfarin, electronic medical records will seamlessly give a prudent recommendation to help the doctor come up with the right dose,” he said.

The GIFT trial was funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services paid for the genotyping and some of the Doppler ultrasounds.

China: Belt And Road Initiative – OpEd

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China’s role in the global context has grown in terms of its output, trade and now its voice and leadership in sustainable and inclusive development, and resolve to pursue low carbon pathways. A further paradigm shift is anticipated in the role and influence of China, as it delivers on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by leveraging on its successful infrastructure capabilities and the capital strengths of new financing vehicles such as Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, New Development Bank and the Silk Road.

The BRI can be a truly “game changing” proposal provided it is able to foster trust and confidence among member states. The initiative should go beyond bilateral project transactions to promote regional and multilateral policy frameworks and promotes sustainability.

It is true that the BRI will generate mutual benefits for China and its partners however the economic, social and environmental costs and benefits vary across corridors depending on the terrain, state of development, productive capacities and traffic flows.

Research has shown that BRI corridors will entail higher benefits if partner countries lower cross border transaction costs and import tariffs, for instance a 30 per cent decline in both of these would generate economic gains of 1.8 per cent growth in GDP for China and anywhere from 5.3 to 16.9 per cent GDP for other participating member countries. Improving the quality of infrastructure in countries with less efficient trade regimes and border administration may result in only limited export gains. Our analysis suggests that a 1 per cent improvement in trade facilitation procedures, quality of transport infrastructure and ICT will deliver 1.5, 0.7 and 1.4 per cent increases in exports, respectively. Gains are higher for corridors where trade agreements may already exist.

With nearly two-thirds of BRI countries facing energy deficits, the initiative needs to complement and supplement the subregional energy connectivity initiatives. There is much scope to develop power grids, promote smart, green and integrated power and gas markets, harness cross-border gas and oil pipelines from resource rich Central Asia to South and East Asia. Drawing on the initiatives of the State Grid of China Corporation and the Global Energy Interconnection Development Cooperation Organization to promote global energy interconnections can enhance the region’s energy security and advance sustainable energy access.

It is also evident that ICT has to be an essential foundation for BRI as it can harness cross sectoral synergies. E-resilience of ICT can be enhanced through increasing diversified and redundant fiber optic cables, raising bandwidth, developing national ICT infrastructure, and lowering fixed-broadband prices as a percentage of GNI per capita. These actions can help develop uniform quality of services between endpoints which will facilitate traffic delivery, ensure low transit costs, and efficient Internet traffic management using Internet exchange points (IXPs).

While the social benefits of some corridors are high, there is need to adopt more inclusive approaches to cope with social risks. For example, connecting the BRI to remote areas with new multi-country corridors would enable rural industrialization and help narrow urban-rural gaps. It is therefore important that synergies and complementarities between the objectives of the BRI and the SDGs can help create a win-win solution, particularly as regional cooperation and integration will facilitate realization of transboundary goals.

The BRI with its unprecedented ambition and scale entails enormous complexities and challenges; however, it offers phenomenal opportunities to put Asia on a sustainable and well-balanced growth and sustainable development path.

*Dr. Shamshad Akhtar is an Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations (UN) and the Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).


India-Israel Defense Cooperation – OpEd

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Israel, followed by Russia and US, is India’s third largest defense supplier and the bilateral defense cooperation between two states is continuing to be strong. Both states are also celebrating the twenty-five years of establishment of their diplomatic relations this year, whereas at the end of last year the Israeli President Reuven Rivlin visited India, which was first after two decades.

India’s foreign policy has undergone through watershed change over past two decades. Until 1992, India abstained in establishing close relations with Israel and even Indian passports prohibited travel to Israel. However after the Gulf War and Kargil War these relations were revived. The relations are supported by Congress and India’s current establishment. The estimated arms trade between India and Israel has been more than $12 billion in last decade which makes India the largest Israel’s customer. Israel has lately carved its niche in India by delivering the most sophisticated weapons systems and annually Israeli weapons sales to India amounts to $1 billion.

Previously, Israel has been importing India the most sought-after drone technology, early warning systems to detect adversary’s warplanes, state-of-the-art missile defense systems, Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC) for surveillance on missile sites and aircraft, missile defense system (Arrow II) to neutralize enemy’s ballistic missiles and anti-missile system to protect Indian Navy ships from hostile missiles. DRDO and Israel are cooperating on producing technologies related to sensors, battlefield management, mobile observation system and command and control.

In the words of Israel’s Ambassador to India, Daniel Carmon, “Israel is one of the first countries to implement the ‘Make in India’ vision. There are already plans for joint ventures for making ‘for India’ by Israeli companies, with the support of the Israeli government.” While lately both states are cooperating for missile projects. Resultantly, these technologies have improved India’s air defense capabilities. It was in 2013 when India expressed a desire for precision-guided munitions and missile cooperation.

The latest deal has opened prospects of more defense cooperation of both states. The deal to build the missiles, reported to have a range of 50-70 kilometres. Five regiments, which consists of 40 units and 200 missiles, are to be developed under the deal. Israel and India will co-develop and produce a medium-range surface-to-air missile  for the Indian Army. Contracts for the deal are expected to be awarded later this month with the value of the project estimated at over $2.5 billion. Known as the MRSAM, development of the missile will be undertaken jointly by India’s DRDO, Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), and will be produced by state-owned Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL) in partnership with other state-owned and private defense companies.

Israel is in a good position to help develop more effective and cost efficient missile defenses after becoming member of MTCR. According to media reports, India is negotiating for Israeli missile technology to perfect the launching and guidance systems of the Prithvi, an indigenously developed surface-to-surface missile and also seeking Israeli help in electronics for its submarine launched Sagarika missile. India has also sought certain technical assistance from Israel to develop Akash, the country’s indigenous missile system. These missiles can counter the threat posed by M-11 acquired by Pakistan. Israel is also helping India in developing state-of-the-art air to air missiles.

India believes that defense relations between two states should flourish because it has limited political implications unlike US which keeps trying to tap in Indian defense market but the reservations to transfer technology remains a deadlock. Moreover, both states are observed as common enemy against Pakistan which presents another striking reason to their defense ties, this is why Pakistan also perceive this connection as threat to its security.

India is looking forward to further strengthen its relations with Israel not only to maintain qualitative and quantitative defense superiority but also to play a dominant role in South Asia. A significant cooperation area between India and Israel is in space field and Indian Ocean which further widens the conventional and non-conventional irregularities between Pakistan and India. The bilateral relations between two countries would also endorse India’s significant role in West and Central Asian region. Whereas in South Asian context, further strengthen ties of India and Israel can alter geopolitical realties and strategic equilibrium in favor of India. Thus, two states find the bilateral relations mutually beneficial.

Recently, India has taken various initiatives to further improve its strategic relations with US, Israel and Japan. Analyst believe that by improving these ties, India is aiming to aggressively pursue its ambitions in broader Asia, South Asia and Indian Ocean regions generally and particularly, respectively, against its two neighbors China and Pakistan. In essence, Indo-Israel relations have grown in importance because it is based on very practical considerations. For India, Israel is a source of high technology in many including military related industries.

*Maimuna Ashraf is a member of an Islamabad based think tank, Strategic Vision Institute (SVI). She works on issues related to nuclear non-proliferation and South Asian nuclear equation. Furthermore, she regularly writes for national and international dailies.

European Geopolitics: New Bloc And Chaotic Future – OpEd

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For a while now Britain has been mutely attempting to create a new European bloc – a secret that is no more unknown. Now that Britain (precisely the UK) has voted to leave the long0survived union among the European states, there is every possibility that Britain will, along with other European countries having “not so pro-European Union” sentimental governments, move towards forming and institutionalizing this new bloc.

Since the war-torn Europe became vulnerable in all aspects after the Second World War, the region, which holds massive energy resources, required collaboration to save their existence from inside weaknesses and from outside entities. Integration and cooperation among the European countries were necessary not just to ensure peace in Europe through avoiding further wars among the European neighbours, but also to stay relevant in world affairs against the strong global presence of neighbouring former Soviet Union. Also, unhindered economic progress was one of the major reasons, no doubt, for initiating the regional integration process through the formation of the European Union (EU).

After the Second World War, the victorious Britain considered itself to be the leading European power. As a result, a unified platform among the Europeans was seen by Britain as an option to serve its purposes and not as a requirement for survival. However, for the other war-torn mainland European countries, the union among the European countries was a requirement for survival. So, the union was more important to the likes of Germany and France than Britain.

BRITAIN-LED NEW EUROPEAN BLOC

In the current-day scenario, the pro-EU governments within the EU, such as France, fear that Britain’s exit from the EU may pave the way for other EU member states to follow suit. However, the extent to which Britain’s exit may fuel a series of exits by other member states out of the EU largely depends on Britain’s success as a non-EU state after Britain “formally” exits the union – which would require atleast two more years.
What would be Britain’s next regional stance once it “formally” leaves the EU? Would Britain follow the examples of the member states of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) like Switzerland and Norway, which, despite having no EU membership, enjoy prosperity and success?

The possible-most case would be the creation of a new European bloc consisting of European countries with “NOT so pro-EU” sentimental establishments/regimes. Indeed, Britain already has been, as mentioned earlier, mutely attempting to create a bloc that is often addressed as the “northern league”. All the probable northern-leaguers – namely Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Iceland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland and Britain itself – share a common desire to restrict the power of the EU. With the attempt of forming such a bloc or alliance, Britain is perhaps trying to restrict the expansion of the EU and to divide the existing EU in order to serve Britain’s own geopolitical interests.

PREDICTIONS OF A CHAOTIC EUROPE

If Britain makes its move towards institutionalizing the “northern league” and also joins the aforesaid EFTA after “formally” leaving the EU, a two centric Europe would emerge — one led by France and Germany (Franco-German duo) under the banner of the EU and the other led by Britain — creating scopes for further division, cold relations, conflicts and, perhaps, wars.

There is every possibility that one of the two European blocs that might emerge out of Britain’s “formal” exit from the EU may lean towards, or align with, the Sino-Russian side of global geopolitics in confronting the other side that would avail the backing from the US.

With such two opposite blocs in Europe, wars or proxy wars are the only possibilities. The conflict of interests between the Western bloc (led by the US) and the Eastern bloc (led by the former Soviet Union) during the cold war period led to a number of proxy wars around the world. Similarly, Saudi-Iran regional rivalry has been resulting in a number of proxy wars in the Middle Eastern region. Therefore, it would not be unprecedented if the two spreadheads of the two future European regional blocs, one led by the Franco-German duo and the other led by Britain, fight between themselves through proxies. However, a ‘direct’ war between these European spearheads is most likely to spread all over Europe, turning the region into a chaotic place.

OBSERVATIONS

Britain’s “formal” exit from the EU might bring about a serious power-imbalance in greater Europe. There is the likelihood that Europe will become bipolar, and thus, the Europeans will no longer remain important players with regard to global affairs. Europe would become a fragmented territory that would become subjugated by other powerful state-players, all of which would use the fragmented pieces of Europe as objects of power rivalries among themselves.

A chaotic Europe would neither be advantageous for Franco-German duo nor for Britain. Such Europe-wide chaos would destroy the social, economic and political institutions of each European state from the core. Chaos not only would halt the progresses that both sides have made so far after the Second World War, but also would cause their development to be reversed back to centuries.

Russia would be mistaken if it thinks it may enjoy the chaos in Europe. A spill-over effect of European-chaos might hit Russia as was the case during the Second World War, where Russia, despite not having an active involvement in the war at the beginning, was attacked by the German Army.

A direct war between the European spearheads is most likely to spread all over the world, similar to what had been seen in the previous two world wars that started as European conflicts only to turn into world wars.

Viability Of Moral Dissent By Military: Regarding Second Internment Of US Citizens – Analysis

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By Lee M. Turcotte*

Stand up amid the general hurricane, thy one tost sapling cannot, Starbuck! And what is it? Reckon it. ’Tis but to help strike a fin; no wondrous feat for Starbuck. What is it more? From this one poor hunt, then, the best lance out of all Nantucket, surely he will not hang back, when every foremast-hand has clutched a whetstone. Ah! Constrainings seize thee; I see! The billow lifts thee! Speak, but speak!—Aye, aye! thy silence, then, that voices thee. —Captain Ahab, Moby-Dick

This article is not a partisan statement, although it unequivocally judges the rising tide of nationalism, isolationism, xenophobia, and anti-Islamic rhetoric occurring throughout the West. While anti-Islamic rhetoric and actions are integral to the scenario described herein, the characters are fictional and not analogous to any military or political figure currently in a position of authority or running for office. The political affiliation of the President in the scenario is deliberately unstated. No political party has a monopoly on or immunity from ugly ideas.

The concept for this article began with what I thought was a wildly unlikely hypothetical situation of military involvement in the internment of American citizens. Nationalistic, xenophobic discourse in Europe and the United States led me to wonder about the moral and constitutional implications of the military’s refusal to follow such guidance from civilian authorities, should it be directed.

My knowledge of the internment of Japanese-Americans during World War II stopped at the fact that there was a Japanese internment; I thought the military could not have been involved. This ignorance is embarrassing, but it was shared by all of my colleagues with whom I initially discussed this scenario. None of us had any idea about the U.S. Army’s role in 1942. We assumed it was a domestic operation because of Posse Comitatus and other legal restraints on the use of Federal troops domestically.

I was horrified by the details of Personal Justice Denied, the final report of the Commission on Wartime Relocation and Internment of Civilians, and particularly the description of how abject racism yielded “military necessity” as the justification for interning Japanese-American citizens. Instead of being a farfetched thought experiment, this article became a straightforward question: “Can this happen again?”

This article explores whether there is ever a moral imperative for the military—primarily senior military leaders—to refuse to obey the direction of civilian leaders. I believe the answer is yes. In practice, though, disobedience on moral grounds is exceedingly unlikely. The year in the scenario is unstated, but the moral and racial questions of this article are urgent. Security environments, threat perceptions, and moral thresholds can shift more quickly than many people care to acknowledge. Moral debate is not a luxury for other, more secure times.

The scenario’s premise requires acceptance of several assumptions. First, regardless of the exact details, Islamists conduct a series of domestic attacks sufficient to generate widespread and enduring fear. The President declares a state of emergency and directs the military to intern Muslim citizens domestically until loyalties can be determined and security reestablished. Congress backs the President, but the Supreme Court declines to intervene, deferring to the Executive in a time of national emergency. While this scenario involves Muslims, similar situations may arise in regard to any ethnicity, ideology, allegiance, or religious affiliation. The potential scenarios are, unfortunately, limited only by one’s imagination.

The following, except for explicit historical references and civil-military relations discussions, is a work of fiction.

Part 1. Historical Context

On February 19, 1942, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed Executive Order (EO) 9066, authorizing the internment of 120,000 Japanese-Americans on the West Coast, a plan justified and largely executed by the United States Army. For fifty years after World War II, scholars, Presidential administrations, and Congresses condemned the Japanese Internment more emphatically and remorsefully than any other injustice in American history.

Less than a century later, in compliance with Executive Order 15022, the U.S. military’s U.S. Northern Command (USNORTHCOM) established Joint Task Force–Freedom to plan and execute the internment of Muslim citizens and resident aliens in the United States. The signing of EO 15022 was not an exact recapitulation of American history, but any attempt to understand the military’s involvement and culpability in the domestic internment of Muslim Americans (the Second Internment) must begin with established facts of the internment of Japanese-Americans during World War II (the First Internment).1 Personal Justice Denied is the definitive accounting of the First Internment. Its clarity, honesty, and balance serve as the inspiration for the U.S. Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s mandate to understand and illuminate injustices perpetrated by the U.S. Government, with a view toward reconciliation and the prevention of additional injustices in the future.

Immediately following the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, the U.S. Army began establishing regional defense commands with geographic responsibility for various portions of the United States. Western Defense Command (WDC) was the first to be established, with Lieutenant General John Dewitt taking command on December 11, 1941.2 In the 10 weeks after its establishment, WDC assessed the West Coast security situation and concluded that the Japanese population posed a threat to both military and national security. In hindsight, WDC’s eventual justification of “military necessity” to evacuate and exclude Japanese-Americans from the West Coast was wholly unsubstantiated by any reasonable standard of military intelligence. General Dewitt’s final justification of military necessity was unapologetically racist3 and culminated with a staggering assertion worth preserving in the public awareness:

There are indications that [over 112,000 potential enemies, of Japanese extraction] are organized and ready for concerted action at a favorable opportunity. The very fact that no sabotage has taken place to date is a disturbing and confirming indication that such action will be taken.4

The same perverse logic was not applicable to the origins of the Second Internment. Lone-wolf attacks from Islamists had occurred, though no available evidence suggests a widespread or even nascent conspiracy. However, such ironclad logic and fallacious rhetoric echo across both internments, the memory of which must continue to serve as a restraint on threat inflation and arguments of military necessity.

Despite the vitriol of General Dewitt’s justification for excluding the Japanese from the West Coast, the military can only share in the blame. Congress and the public also pressed for exclusion of Japanese citizens based on fear and racial hostility. Personal Justice Denied summarizes the situation thusly: “The governmental decisions of 1942 were not the work of a few men driven by animus, but decisions supported or accepted by public servants from nearly every part of the political spectrum. Nor did sustained or vocal opposition come from the American public.”5 WDC’s attitude mirrored public sentiment, except that the military also wielded the rhetorical cudgel of “military necessity.” After extended debate within WDC and between Secretary of War Henry Stimson and various Federal agencies, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed EO 9066 on February 19, 1942. With additional Federal support, WDC orchestrated the evacuation and exclusion of 120,000 Japanese-Americans from the West Coast.

Historical judgment of the First Internment is marked by consistent, unambiguous condemnation. President Gerald Ford formally terminated the authority of EO 9066 on February 19, 1976, with a statement that the evacuation of Japanese-Americans was a tragedy and a national mistake.6 President Jimmy Carter recommended establishment of the Commission on Wartime Relocation and Internment of Civilians in 1980. Congress authorized the commission, which finalized Personal Justice Denied in 1982.

Personal Justice Denied opened by calling the First Internment an “extraordinary and unique” event in American history and a “grave injustice” shaped by “race prejudice, war hysteria and a failure of political leadership.”7 Congress then passed the Civil Liberties Act of 1987, which contains near-verbatim excerpts from Personal Justice Denied, most notably the recognition of “grave injustice,” the acknowledgment that “these actions were without security reasons,” and the description of motivations of prejudice, hysteria, and leadership failure.8 Congress also apologized on behalf of the Nation and authorized reparations. President Ronald Reagan signed the Civil Liberties Act of 1987 into law on August 10, 1988, with public comments on how the internment was a “grave wrong” and “a mistake . . . based solely on race.”9

After taking office, President George H.W. Bush signed the letters of apology that accompanied reparations to internees. In 1992, he approved an amendment to the Civil Liberties Act to address technical issues with the payment of reparations. In his remarks after signing the amendment, he called the internment “one of the darkest incidents in American constitutional history” and reiterated the need “to do everything possible to ensure that such a grave wrong is never repeated.”10 Four consecutive Presidential administrations condemned the First Internment and, with the support of Congress, the U.S. Government took the exceedingly rare step of paying reparations.

Despite this unambiguous acknowledgment of wrongdoing, the collective statements of the government regarding the First Internment are framed primarily in terms of justice, not morality. Personal Justice Denied refers to lapses of constitutional commitment and democratic values. It offers a warning that American exceptionalism can lead to complacency toward “evil-doing” elsewhere and an insistence that “it can’t happen here,” even though “it did happen here.”11 Crucially, while Personal Justice Denied questions the decisionmaking process of the U.S. Army and WDC leading up to EO 9066, it does not address civil-military relations or whether the military’s active role in identifying citizens as threats and then taking action against them was appropriate for Federal military forces.

Likewise, the U.S. Army’s military history of its defense of the Western Hemisphere against Axis attack during World War II does not question the appropriateness of the military’s role in the First Internment. Guarding the United States and Its Outposts recounts Western Hemisphere defense efforts, with a chapter devoted to a factual description of the First Internment. The narrative focuses heavily on the decisionmaking process of General Dewitt’s staff to justify the exclusion of the Japanese on the grounds of military necessity, with emphasis on external political and public influences supporting exclusion. The extent of the scrutiny of the Army’s role, and the closest Guarding the United States and Its Outposts comes to self-reflection, is to ask, “What were the reasons that impelled the Army to carry out the mass evacuation?” This is settled one sentence later with: “The President and Congress had approved mass evacuation and the Secretary of War . . . thought it necessary to carry it out.”12 Thus ends the military’s scrutiny of its involvement in one of the great injustices in American history.

Part 2. Resignation of the Chairman

The Second Internment differed substantially from the First in that its origins were primarily political, as opposed to being fueled by speculative military threat assessments. As insider attacks escalated, political figures, media pundits, and outspoken citizens began openly questioning whether collective action against Muslim citizens might be militarily necessary. This idea also surfaced in the military, but not in an organized way, and not because of command influence or the threat assessments of planning staffs. Most Servicemembers understood the intent if not the legal nuances of the Posse Comitatus Act, which forbade the Federal military from conducting domestic law enforcement activities. The military did not come up with the idea for the Second Internment, nor did it advocate for an internment as a matter of policy or necessity.

The most significant difference between the First and Second internments was the vehement opposition of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff during discussions with the President and the President’s senior advisors. The Chairman spent weeks arguing against internment of Muslims, in discussions that grew heated but remained professional. The Chairman’s first argument was that internment of Muslim citizens was a disastrous strategy from a purely military perspective, since it would effectively legitimize the propaganda of violent extremist organizations asserting a war on Muslims by the West. The Chairman also predicted enough active resistance domestically, by both Muslims and the general public, to cause incidents of Federal troops using deadly force against American citizens on more than isolated occasions.

The Chairman knew he had no legitimate basis to step down in protest of flawed strategy. Internment as a strategy was by no means simply a matter of military expertise. It was inherently political and appealed to the widespread public sentiment that the only way to restore security was to take action against the Muslim population, regardless of their citizenship. Strategic disagreements aside, the Chairman’s most fundamental reservation was the moral bankruptcy of internment and the damage to the military’s standing in society that would result from its involvement. The Chairman insisted that the basic premise of a mass internment was antithetical to American values, constitutional principles, and basic human rights, citing the government’s extensive record of apologies and restitution. The Presidential administration insisted it was a matter of supreme emergency.13 Amends could be made after the fact, if necessary.

In a private meeting with the Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, and Chairman, the President announced the final decision to order the detention of Muslims domestically until security could be reestablished. Given the state of emergency, the Supreme Court would defer to the Executive in matters of national security; congressional support had already been secured. The Chairman resigned immediately, calling the decision a catastrophic strategy, a loathsome attack on American values, and an unforgivable national disgrace, all the more so because similar events had occurred—and been roundly condemned—within living memory. The President was not entirely shocked by the Chairman’s resignation and already had a successor in mind. The Chairman’s successor was quickly confirmed; shortly thereafter, the President signed Executive Order 15022.

The Chairman’s resignation represented the culmination of a multi-decade scholarly debate on the limits of military obedience to civilian authority, and whether resignation by generals in protest could ever be a legitimate means of dissent. The only comparable prior rupture in civil-military relations was General of the Army Douglas MacArthur’s insubordination and subsequent firing by President Harry Truman. MacArthur’s firing, however, left the civil-military relationship intact and served to reinforce the principle of absolute civilian control of the military. An understanding of the “resignation debate” is essential to comprehend the significance of the Chairman’s resignation and the military’s subsequent willingness to proceed with the internment.

Samuel Huntington laid the foundation for future discourse in American civil-military relations in his 1957 treatise The Soldier and the State. In addition to describing principles of objective and subjective civilian control of the military that have defined the civil-military relations field ever since, Huntington considered several forms of military dissent. The first he called operational and doctrinal dissent, which occurs among soldiers within the military chain of command, due primarily to differences in tactical knowledge or differing situational awareness between commanders and soldiers in the field.14 As long as the soldier’s justification for dissent supports the higher mission or objective of the organization, Huntington claimed this sort of dissent was justifiable.

Huntington’s second form of dissent occurs at the level of civil-military interaction. At this level, the authority of the statesmen to decide to go to war is absolute. Jus ad bellum is not for the soldier to decide. “Superior political wisdom,” Huntington claims, “must be accepted as fact,” even in a political environment such as Nazi Germany.15 Within war, however, when a statesman violates objective control (that is, intrudes into Huntington’s esteemed realm of “autonomous military professionalism”) and issues “militarily absurd” orders that fall “strictly within the military realm without any political implications,” disobedience is justified.16 This is the point at which the constraints of Huntington’s theoretical model become apparent, given how sharply he delineates between political and military expertise. Even if the military agrees widely on apparently clear-cut strategic concerns, statesmen need only claim broader political implications, which cannot then be disputed by the military. Huntington’s overly strict definitions neglect truths about politics and war recognized by Carl von Clausewitz at the dawn of the Napoleonic era in the early 1800s. In practice, as Clausewitz and the Chairman both realized, strategy and politics cannot be disentangled. If civilian supremacy is to continue to be meaningful, dissent cannot be justified based on violations of objective control.

Huntington’s third scenario for dissent is on the basis of illegal or unconstitutional orders from civilian authorities. Under these circumstances, the military must give “considerable presumption of validity to the opinion of the statesman.” If the legitimately functioning branches of government, including and especially the judiciary, agree on the legality or constitutionality of an order, the military must obey.17 This was the case for the Second Internment, a position the Chairman recognized all too clearly by the end of his final meeting with the President.

Morality is Huntington’s final scenario for dissent. Individuals serving in the military do not and cannot “surrender to the civilian [the] right to make ultimate moral judgments.”18 If a statesman overrules morality for national interest, hewing to Michael Walzer’s concept of supreme emergency, the soldier should obey except in the most extreme circumstances. Huntington offers no clarity about what these circumstances might be; he acknowledges genocide as morally intolerable, but expresses uncertainty about whether there could be countervailing factors against dissent in the face of genocidal orders.19 In the end, Huntington leaves no meaningful options for dissent from political guidance, and he is especially unwilling to consider moral dissent in a substantive way.

Shortly after publication of The Soldier and the State, Samuel Finer added to the civil-military canon with a counterpoint to Huntington titled The Man on Horseback. Finer was concerned primarily with the military’s growing influence in politics, specifically in the context of the military’s institutional protectionism and advocacy for its own corporate interests. Finer criticizes Huntington’s definition of professionalism as excessively strict and idealized, and while he recognizes civilian supremacy over the military,20 he expresses concern about the blurring of lines between political and military institutions and the possibility of “military intervention” in politics. His definition of military intervention is informed by the actions of officers such as Douglas MacArthur, whom Finer criticizes for “inventing their own private notion of the national interest” and “drawing a distinction between nation and the government in power.”21 Furthermore, if military intervention takes place, it will likely be motivated by selfish corporate interests instead of the idealism of upholding the military’s self-appointed “sacred trust” of supervising the Republic.22

Despite Finer’s concerns about undue military corporate interests, he claims the military is generally reluctant to coerce the government’s domestic opponents. “Foreign foes” are the enemy, not fellow nationals.23 Finer provides British, German, and Turkish examples of domestic military intervention, but tellingly, he makes no mention of the U.S. Army’s role in 1942. Since Finer is mostly concerned with creeping military influence in politics and not outright overthrow of the government, his concern apparently does not extend to actions where fellow nationals are defined as potential enemies in a time of war. He also cites an abundance of military interventions motivated by “national interest” in South America, but he dismisses this as unlikely in countries with free and fair elections.24 Finer does not specifically address moral dissent. He does, however, add essential context for understanding the risks of the military’s divergence from society, as corporate self-interest advances a self-proclaimed and potentially dangerous conception of national interest and constitutionality.

Scholars continued to debate the possibility of moral dissent well into the post-9/11 era, largely within Huntington’s original framework of disobedience. In 2009, James Burk criticized Huntington for neglecting the viability and necessity of moral dissent, though he agreed with Huntington’s premise that the decision to wage war is always political, leaving the military no space for dissent in the matter.25 The military’s refusal to obey political direction would “pose a constitutional crisis,” given that the Constitution “established particular institutional arrangements . . . to secure . . . the preference for reason over coercion in public policymaking.”26 This arrangement did not put the military into a position of blind, thoughtless obedience, Burk claimed, as long as the military introduced its “expert knowledge into policy deliberations” to help inform political decisionmaking. If this was the case, the military would be acting with “responsible obedience.”27

Though Burk’s definition of responsible obedience already seems to rationalize away moral dissent at the level experienced by the Chairman, he went on to scrutinize Huntington’s analysis of moral dissent. He rightly identified Huntington’s failure to provide useful answers about when moral dissent might be appropriate, even with regard to extremes such as genocide. Burk criticized Huntington’s use of “crude binary terms” to frame his discussion about disobedience and dissent, and then spent the remainder of his essay seeking to define a “protected space” for disobedience. Unfortunately, Burk’s “protected spaces” all devolved into examples of moral action within a purely military context. These are valuable and legitimate examples in their own right, but they offer nothing to differentiate responsible obedience from moral dissent at the level of civil-military interaction.28 Despite a tortured argument that clarifies dissent within the military chain of command but absolves senior leaders of moral responsibility via “responsible obedience,” Burk concludes with an insight that neatly summarizes the question of moral dissent and seems to offer a way forward: “The ongoing task is to use reason to choose a course of action that is militarily effective and that is justifiable by the values and customs held by liberal democratic societies.”29 While it does not offer any tangible courses of action, this at least suggests moral or rational responsibility must still be somehow involved.

The nadir of the resignation debate occurred in 2015, as the featured article of a special edition of Strategic Studies Quarterly, an Air Force–sponsored publication on national and international security. The author, a U.S. Army major, fully accepted Burk’s premise of responsible obedience and went on to assert that military leaders “cannot claim any legitimate basis upon which to assess the national interest, the public will, or the common good.”30 In assessing other scholarly views on the possibility of dissent on narrow moral grounds, the author dismissed any protected space for moral resignation as “vanishingly small.”31 He also claimed that even if there was a morally defensible reason for resignation, there would be no way to do it privately or apolitically. Moreover, this would be the wrong avenue for resignation since “a professional standard upon which to judge the morality of consequences . . . would preclude individual resignation and instead dictate disobedience by the officer corps as a whole.”32 In the end, the author dismissed outright any consideration of moral resignation, claiming such concerns came at the expense of “far more pressing questions.”33

Richard Kohn took a blunt but rather more productive stance. While acknowledging the fact that resignation directly assaults civilian authority, Kohn admitted the possibility of “truly extraordinary or dire circumstances” that might justify resignation. Contrary to the call for mutiny or mass disobedience in response to immoral guidance, Kohn suggested principled resignation must be done as quietly as possible in order to offer at least some protection to civilian control of the military.34 Of course, this provides no clarity about what circumstances might justify such principled resignation, but Kohn at least left open the possibility that such a situation merited consideration and could legitimately occur.

While opinions were clearly mixed on the viability of principled resignation, the majority opinion left essentially no space for moral agency among military officers, particularly generals responsible for advising elected leaders. From a constitutional perspective, civilian control of the military is indeed absolute. Burk’s concept of responsible obedience is little more than a minor qualification to Huntington’s original claim that the military never gets to decide when the country goes to war. While proper in constitutional terms, the trouble with responsible obedience is how easily it can be used to absolve the military of any sort of moral responsibility, since the boundary between military strategy and politics is almost entirely subjective. No one meaningfully improved on Huntington’s evasion of the question of moral dissent, until the Chairman put it to the test.

The Chairman was deeply conflicted about resigning. He exited the stage as Kohn recommended, quietly and as apolitically as possible. He never entertained the idea of trying to rally support and generate more widespread disobedience. This was a principled decision; he felt that leading a revolt would have been an attack on the country, and the country was worth preserving, if not his role within it. It was also a pragmatic decision. The Chairman had no expectation that he could unify the military in opposition to the internment of Muslims. The military was overwhelmingly Christian and the majority of Servicemembers identified as ideologically conservative, characteristics not inherently anti-Muslim but that placed the military in broad alignment with the President’s policies. One other factor concerned the Chairman profoundly. He recognized a widespread sense of animosity toward Muslims throughout the Services, largely as a residual effect of decades of stalemated war in the Middle East and northern Africa. The singular embodiment of this racism was the slur haji, used for local nationals and insurgents alike. The Chairman expected this latent racism to be redirected onto the Muslim population in the course of the internment, and he was not wrong.

The historical novelty and apparent momentousness of the Chairman’s resignation were matched only by its almost immediate irrelevance. In a striking historical similarity to Attorney General Francis Beverley Biddle’s vocal dissent against the idea of a Japanese internment—Biddle took “coarse and threatening abuse for his unwillingness to join the stampede to mass evacuation”35—the Chairman’s resignation was treated with utter contempt and vitriol by segments of the media. After a hail of accusations of cowardice and treason, the press moved on, and the newly appointed Chairman of the Joint Chiefs proceeded with implementation.

The moral motivation for the Chairman’s resignation was unique, but the insignificance of resignation as a threat to civilian control—at least if used in the rarest of circumstances—was foreshadowed by the early retirement of Air Force Chief of Staff General Ronald Fogleman in 1997. Fogleman’s retirement was the culmination of his frustration with providing “military advice the civilian leadership did not value for whatever reason.” He also resented what he judged to be misguided political decisionmaking by then–Secretary of the Air Force Sheila Widnall and the Bill Clinton administration, the details of which, by Fogleman’s accounting, compelled him to retire rather than continue to work in an environment where his expertise was “not valued by those in charge.”36 Fogleman’s retirement, a sort of preemptive resignation, generated a flurry of debate about the state of civil-military relations at the time. Fogleman’s attitude had hints of MacArthur-esque condescension toward his supposedly unprincipled civilian bosses. However, his description of his role as Air Force Chief of Staff—“it’s a tour, not a sentence”—rings true in the sense that individuals must retain some personal agency to decide whether they can continue to fulfill their duties responsibly. Circumstances and motivations differed, but in each case retirement in protest and resignation had no meaningful effect on either the short-term functioning of the government or the long-term status of civil-military relations. Despite the tensions inherent in the American civil-military relationship, Huntingtonian professionalism and centuries of near-absolute military deference to civilian control have produced a structure resilient enough to absorb shocks and even, on occasion, to accommodate behavior considered either petulant or insubordinate.

Part 3. Conclusions

Principled refusal to obey civilian direction—outright rebellion or deceptive compliance with no intent to actually obey—is insubordination. There is no legal legitimacy to it so long as constitutionality is defined in terms of respecting the orders of elected leaders whose decisions are supported by all branches of government. There is no Platonic ideal of constitutionality, no higher knowledge the military can claim. The military never questioned its role in the First Internment because by definition it did the right thing.

This all seems perfectly logical, except for the existence of Personal Justice Denied. Moral dissent cannot be reconciled with the military’s constitutional obligations, and yet individuals must retain their autonomy. There are circumstances that, while constitutional in the sense of being sanctioned by the government, are clearly immoral. Genocide is the default example, but possibilities short of genocide, however undefinable in advance, must surely also exceed a moral threshold. When these circumstances arise, even though personal thresholds will differ, individuals must retain the freedom to opt out. Those individuals will face consequences, as the Chairman did in the aftermath of his resignation. Principled resignation should be exceedingly rare, but it must have its place.

Critics might then ask, if principled resignation on moral grounds is acceptable, why is organized mass disobedience not also defensible in extremis? Revolt is unacceptable for a reason that Burk gets right. If political representation is the highest good, if the liberal democratic principles upon which the Constitution is based are the most foundational of all the values the United States represents, then revolt is intolerable for the same reason as secession: It is an attack on the state. Democratic societies are capable of implementing morally abhorrent policies, but taking down the state, and the representation of the citizenry with it, is not a legitimate solution. Perhaps there is a point at which a society must be destroyed to save it, to resort to the tragic logic of prior wars. If this is the case, then the moral limits of dissent by the military must remain bounded by faith, if nothing else, in the potential for our constitutional system to correct itself, restore balance, and acknowledge its shortcomings.

Personal Justice Denied provides the more fundamental, less legalistic reason that the resignation debate failed to meaningfully consider moral autonomy. The discussion was predicated on the self-assurance that “it can’t happen here.” Despite values of honor, integrity, courage, and service, the military is a profoundly amoral institution. If constitutionality consists of enacting the will of the people, as manifested by the actions of elected leaders, the military will simply mirror—and sometimes facilitate—the eruptions of fear and injustice that history tells us are inevitable. This is not a problem that happens elsewhere, to supposedly lesser or different societies. It has happened here, repeatedly. Military professionals must understand and reckon with their potential role in this. The Chairman did the right thing, and yet the Second Internment proceeded. Moral dissent should be exceedingly rare. It cannot become a blanket justification for stepping down because of personal disagreements or minor misgivings, but when military leaders possess the clarity to see the nature of events as they unfold, they must retain the freedom to act.

About the author:
*Major Lee M. Turcotte
, USAF, wrote this essay while a Student at the Air Command and Staff College. It won the 2016 Secretary of Defense National Security Essay Competition.

Source:
This article was published in the Joint Force Quarterly 84, which is published by the National Defense University.

Notes:
1 Executive Order 9066 authorized the Secretary of War and designated military commanders “to prescribe military areas . . . from which any or all persons may be excluded, and with respect to which, the right of any person to enter, remain in, or leave shall be subject to whatever restrictions the Secretary of War or the appropriate Military Commander may impose in his discretion.” The Secretary of War and designated military commanders were also given the authority and direction to take necessary steps “to enforce compliance with the restrictions applicable to each Military area.” Executive Order 9066, “Authorizing the Secretary of War to Prescribe Military Areas,” February 19, 1942, General Records of the U.S. Government, Record Group 11, National Archives.

2 Stetson Conn, Rose C. Engelman, and Byron Fairchild, Guarding the United States and Its Outposts (Washington, DC: U.S. Army Center of Military History, 1964), 33, available at <www.history.army.mil/books/wwii/guard-US/index.htm#contents>. Western Defense Command’s geographic area of responsibility included Alaska, Arizona, California, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Washington.

3 Among other examples, Dewitt’s final recommendation to the Secretary of War on the “Evacuation of Japanese and Other Subversive Persons from the Pacific Coast” states, “The Japanese race is an enemy race and while many second[-] and third[-]generation Japanese born on United States soil, possessed of United States citizenship, have become ‘Americanized,’ the racial strains are undiluted.” Quoted in Personal Justice Denied: Report of the Commission on Wartime Relocation and Internment of Civilians (Washington, DC: The Commission on Wartime Relocation and Internment of Civilians, 1983), 82, available at <www.archives.gov/research/japanese-americans/justice-denied/>.

4 Ibid.

5 Personal Justice Denied, 6.

6 Gerald Ford, “Proclamation 4417: Confirming the Termination of the Executive Order Authorizing Japanese-American Internment During World War II,” February 19, 1976, available at <www.fordlibrarymuseum.gov/library/speeches/760111p.htm>.

7 Personal Justice Denied, 3–8.

8 U.S. House of Representatives, H.R. 442, Civil Liberties Act of 1987, 100th Cong., available at <www.congress.gov/bill/100th-congress/house-bill/442>.

9 Ronald Reagan, statement on the signing of the Civil Liberties Act of 1987, August 10, 1988, accessed at <http://faculty.history.wisc.edu/archdeacon/404tja/redress.html>.

10 George H.W. Bush, statement on the signing of the Civil Liberties Act Amendments of 1992, September 27, 1992, available at <www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PPP-1992-book2/pdf/PPP-1992-book2-doc-pg1681.pdf>.

11 Personal Justice Denied, 6–7.

12 Conn, Engelman, and Fairchild, 147.

13 Michael Walzer, Just and Unjust Wars (New York: Basic Books, 1977), chapter 16.

14 Samuel P. Huntington, The Soldier and the State: The Theory and Politics of Civil-Military Relations (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press, 1957), 75.

15 Ibid., 76–77.

16 Ibid., 77, 83.

17 Ibid., 78.

18 Ibid.

19 Ibid.

20 Samuel E. Finer, The Man on Horseback: The Role of the Military in Politics, 2nd ed. (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers, 2002), 25, 28.

21 Ibid., 26.

22 Ibid., 39.

23 Ibid., 27.

24 Ibid., 36.

25 James Burk, “Responsible Obedience by Military Professionals: The Discretion to Do What Is Wrong,” in American Civil-Military Relations: The Soldier and the State in a New Era, ed. Suzanne C. Nielsen and Don M. Snider (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 2009), 155.

26 Ibid., 156–157.

27 Ibid., 157–158.

28 Ibid., 162–168.

29 Ibid., 171.

30 Jim Golby, “Beyond the Resignation Debate: A New Framework for Civil-Military Dialogue,” Strategic Studies Quarterly 9, no. 3 (Fall 2015), 18–46.

31 Ibid., 21.

32 Ibid., 23.

33 Ibid., 25.

34 Richard H. Kohn, “Building Trust: Civil-Military Behaviors for Effective National Security,” in American Civil-Military Relations, 282.

35 Personal Justice Denied, 84.

36 Richard H. Kohn, ed., “The Early Retirement of Gen. Ronald R. Fogleman, Chief of Staff, United States Air Force,” Aerospace Power Journal (Spring 2001), available at <www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj01/spr01/kohn.htm>.

Counterinsurgency From Bottom Up: Colonel H.R. McMaster and the 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment In Tel Afar, Spring-Fall 2005 – Analysis

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By Mackubin Thomas Owens*

(FPRI) — By the time Col. H.R. McMaster led elements of his 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment (3rd ACR) into northern Iraq’s Nineveh (Ninewa) Province in May of 2005, he had already established a reputation within the Army as a highly-respected and innovative officer. During the 1991 Gulf War, Captain McMaster had commanded Eagle Troop of the 2nd ACR and during the 1991 engagement known as the Battle of 73 Easting, his cavalry troop overran and destroyed a numerically superior Iraqi Republican Guard force, taking no casualties. For this action, he was awarded the Silver Star.

He later earned a Ph.D. in history from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and taught history at the US Military Academy. He commanded 1st Squadron, 4th Cavalry Regiment from 1999 until 2002 and in the spring of 2003, McMaster joined the staff of General John Abizaid at Central Command. He assumed command of 3rd ACR in June of 2004, leading the unit from Fort Carson, Colorado to Iraq in January 2005 for its second deployment.

McMaster was well known outside of the Army as well. A true soldier-scholar, he wrote an influential but often misunderstood book, Dereliction of Duty: Lyndon Johnson, Robert McNamara, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Lies That Led to Vietnam, in which he harshly criticized the senior uniformed leadership during the early part of the Vietnam War for failing to present their views concerning the risks of the war frankly and forcefully to their civilian superiors.

And although McMaster was a tank officer by trade, he recognized early on that Iraq was a war of the people and that what may have begun as the sort of conventional war favored by the Americans had morphed into an insurgency, fed by sectarianism.   As violence continued to rise, U.S. ground troops responded by adapting conventional tactics to a guerrilla war, attempting to isolate and destroy the insurgents in their strongholds. In his book The Gamble, Tom Ricks quotes a speech by an Army officer that captures the essence of the U.S. approach in Iraq from 2003 until 2007: “Anytime you fight, you always kill the other sonofabitch. Do not let him live today so he will fight you tomorrow. Kill him today.”

This approach may have made sense when the insurgents stood and fought as they did in Fallujah in April and November of 2004. It also seemed to make sense during the  subsequent “rivers campaign” of 2005, as coalition forces sought to destroy the insurgency in al Anbar Province by depriving it of its base and infrastructure in the Sunni Triangle and its “ratlines” west and northwest of Fallujah. These efforts unquestionably killed thousands of insurgents, including Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), as well as many of his top lieutenants, and led to the capture of many more. Intelligence from captured insurgents, as well as from Zarqawi’s computer, had a cascading effect, permitting the coalition to maintain pressure on the insurgency.

But while successful in disrupting insurgent operations, there were too few U.S. troops to maintain control of the towns of al Anbar. The insurgents, abandoning their Fallujah approach of standing and fighting, simply melted away, only to return after Coalition troops had departed. Thus while soldiers and Marines were chasing insurgents from sanctuary to sanctuary, reminiscence of the arcade game “whack-a-mole,” they were not providing security for the Iraqi population, leaving them at the mercy of the insurgents who terrorized and intimidated them. More importantly, from McMaster’s perspective, the “hard war” approach created resentment on the part of many Iraqis.

From his position on Abazaid’s staff in 2003-2004, McMaster could see that part of the problem was the lack of an overarching counterinsurgency strategy in Iraq. In early 2004, McMaster prepared an assessment of U.S. counterinsurgency efforts in Iraq for Gen. Abazaid. He observed that:

In Iraq, Former Regime Elements, Extremists, and Foreign Fighters form the core elements of a fragmented movement.  The enemy mainly uses young, unemployed males to carry out attacks and criminality both confuses the intelligence picture and reinforces the insurgency.  Iraqi and Arab nationalism is another factor that provides both support and legitimacy for the enemy.  In some areas there is evidence of alliances of convenience between Former Regime Elements and Islamic extremists, primarily of Wahhabist and Salafist sects.  The enemy is using guerilla and terrorist tactics to incite chaos, cause disaffection among the populace, discredit the Coalition in the eyes of Iraqis, and erode the Coalition’s political will.  Successful insurgencies require only a small cadre of dedicated insurgents and a passive population.  While many Iraqis are supporting the Coalition’s effort to bring stability and prosperity to Iraq, it appears that the majority of the population, particularly in the Sunni region, has adopted a wait-and-see attitude.  The enemy’s primary source of strength is disaffection among the populace that breeds opposition among some and passivity among others.

Taking as his starting point the four counterinsurgency principles of David Galula, the French counterinsurgency expert, McMaster offered ten “essential elements of a successful counterinsurgency, which he would himself employ during the Tal Afar operation:” 1) splinter the counterinsurgent forces; 2) strengthen the rule of law; 3) develop a coordinated and integrated plan and unify counterinsurgency management; 4) demonstrate a will to win; 5) enhance political legitimacy and develop and peaceful path for political resolution; 6) ensure civilian oversight and authority over military operations; 7) control troop behavior and firepower; 8) employ sound counterinsurgency tactics; 9) establish an effective intelligence apparatus; and 10) employ integrated PSYOP, information operations, and strategic communications. In each case, McMaster addressed what was going right and what was going wrong, providing recommendations for addressing the deficiencies.

It was clear to McMaster that while some units were adapting to the insurgency, others weren’t. It was also clear that different approaches led to varying results. For instance, during the first year of the war, in Fallujah and Ramadi, the 82nd Airborne Division under Maj. Gen. Charles Swannack, emphasized killing and capturing the enemy, and the situation deteriorated in those places; in northern Iraq, the 101st Airborne Division under Maj. Gen. David Petraeus focused on winning over the civilian population by encouraging economic reconstruction and local government, and had considerable success.  Accordingly, McMaster pushed for a more imaginative and coherent response to an insurgency that he believed was made up of highly decentralized groups with different agendas making short-term alliances of convenience.

But McMaster understood that there were substantial obstacles to framing a coherent approach to the insurgency in Iraq. The most fundamental of these was the U.S. Army’s cultural aversion to irregular warfare, including counterinsurgency. One of McMaster’s contemporaries, Col. Peter Mansoor, observed in his book, Baghdad at Sunrise, that for at least the three decades before the Iraq War, the professional military education system all but ignored counterinsurgency operations. It was also true that the Army’s counterinsurgency manual was two decades old.

Critics of former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld have been quick to blame him for refusing to recognize that the Iraq war had become an insurgency and sticking to “business as usual.” But while Rumsfeld made many mistakes, so did the uniformed services. McMaster understood that one area for which the uniformed services must bear much of the blame was for ignoring counterinsurgency.

In the December 25, 2004 Washington Post, Tom Ricks wrote that while many in the Army blamed “Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and other top Pentagon civilians for the unexpectedly difficult occupation of Iraq,” an Army major who had served as an official historian of the campaign and later as a war planner in Iraq, had penned a report placing the blame squarely on the Army. According to Ricks, Maj. Isaiah Wilson III concluded that senior Army commanders had failed to grasp the strategic situation in Iraq and therefore did not plan properly for victory. Wilson contended that Army planners suffered from “stunted learning and a reluctance to adapt.” According to Wilson, Army commanders in 2004 still misunderstood the strategic problem they faced and therefore were still pursuing a flawed approach. Ricks quotes Wilson, who had written,

Plainly stated, the “western coalition” failed, and continues to fail, to see Operation Iraqi Freedom in its fullness. Reluctance in even defining the situation… is perhaps the most telling indicator of a collective cognitive dissidence (sic) on part of the U.S. Army to recognize a war of rebellion, a people’s war, even when they were fighting it.

Just over two years later, Wilson’s view was reinforced in a blistering critique of U.S. Army leadership in the April 2007 issue of Armed Forces Journal, in which one of McMaster’s former 3rd ACR officers, Lieutenant Colonel Paul Yingling wrote:

For the second time in a generation, the United States faces the prospect of defeat at the hands of an insurgency. In April 1975, the U.S. fled the Republic of Vietnam, abandoning our allies to their fate at the hands of North Vietnamese communists. In 2007, Iraq’s grave and deteriorating condition offers diminishing hope for an American victory and portends risk of an even wider and more destructive regional war.

These debacles are not attributable to individual failures, but rather to a crisis in an entire institution: America’s general officer corps. America’s generals have repeated the mistakes of Vietnam in Iraq. First, throughout the 1990s our generals failed to envision the conditions of future combat and prepare their forces accordingly. Second, America’s generals failed to estimate correctly both the means and the ways necessary to achieve the aims of policy prior to beginning the war in Iraq. Finally, America’s generals did not provide Congress and the public with an accurate assessment of the conflict in Iraq.

McMaster believed that this cultural aversion to counterinsurgency lay at the heart of the difficult years in Iraq from 2003 until 2007. In the absence of a counterinsurgency doctrine, the Army fell back on what it knew: conventional style offensive operations designed to kill the enemy without protecting the population.

McMaster also understood that the Army’s predisposition toward offensive operations had been reinforced in the 1990s by a sort of operational “happy talk” that argued that the U.S. edge in emerging technologies, especially informational technologies, would permit the United States to conduct short, decisive, and relatively bloodless campaigns along the lines of the first Gulf War. The result was an approach that goes under the name of “rapid decisive operations” (RDO),

which will integrate knowledge, C2, and operations to achieve the desired political/military effect. In preparing for and conducting a rapid decisive operation, the military acts in concert with and leverages the other instruments of power to understand and reduce the regional adversary’s critical capabilities and coherence. The U.S. and its allies asymmetrically assault the adversary from directions and in dimensions against which he has no counter, dictating the terms and tempo of the operation. The adversary, suffering from the loss of coherence and unable to achieve his objectives, chooses to cease actions that are against U.S. interests or has his capabilities defeated.

McMaster firmly rejected the underlying notion of RDO that emerging weapons and information technology offered the promise of certainty and precision in warfare.

In April of 2003, just as the U.S. “shock and awe” campaign against the regime of Saddam Hussein appeared to have vindicated the assumptions of RDO, the Army War College’s Center for Strategic Leadership released McMaster’s monograph entitled “Crack in the Foundation: Defense Transformation and the Underlying Assumption of Dominant Knowledge in Future War” in which he argued that success during the Gulf War had led military thinkers to forget that war is, above all, a human endeavor.

McMaster examined the messier post-DESERT STORM operations of the 1990s, beginning with the debacle in Somalia, concluding: “What is certain about the future is that even the best efforts to predict the conditions of future war will prove erroneous. What is important, however, is to not be so far off the mark that visions of the future run counter to the very nature of war and render American forces unable to adapt to unforeseen challenges.” McMaster believed that what the advocates of “transformation” had ignored were precisely the sort of conflict that Iraq had become: protracted counterinsurgency and state-building efforts that require population security, security-sector reform, reconstruction and economic development, building governmental capacity, and establishing the rule of law.

McMaster assumed command of the 3rd ACR in June of 2004 as it prepared for its second deployment to Iraq. During its first deployment, the regiment had conducted classic “cav” operations while acting as an “economy of force” instrument in al Anbar Province. McMaster was one of those who wondered exactly why the United States was conducting economy of force operations in the area at the heart of the emerging Sunni insurgency.

Based on his observations while on Abazaid’s staff, McMaster had developed a firm understanding of the counterinsurgency strategy his regiment would have to implement. The sort of approach he envisioned would require the coordinated employment of all the tools of American power in Iraq: diplomatic, informational, military and economic. It would accept the precepts of classic counterinsurgency doctrine that the British had employed in Malaya during the 1940s and 1950s: that counterinsurgency warfare is twenty per cent military and eighty per cent political; that the focus of operations is on the civilian population—isolating residents from insurgents, providing security, building a police force, and allowing political and economic development to take place so that the government commands the allegiance of its citizens; and that a counterinsurgency strategy involves both offensive and defensive operations, but that the counterinsurgent should employ only the minimum amount of force necessary.

McMaster also realized that he would have to overcome not only the strong cultural aversion of the Army to counterinsurgency but also the organizational culture of his own unit, one organized and equipped for reconnaissance and screening, not for counterinsurgency operations in an urban setting.

One of the first things he did upon assuming command of the regiment was to draft a set of questions based on “lessons learned” during the first rotation to Iraq, which he distributed to the command. Then during a week-long “retreat,” he broke his officers and NCOs into teams that were instructed to address a particular issue: area security, tactics, human intelligence, the integration of Iraqi troops into operations, etc. Each group was required to prepare a paper on the topic as well as a briefing. These served as the basis for the regiment’s Mission Essential Task List (METL), one component of which was the mission essential training plan.

In the New Yorker of 10 April, 2006, George Packard describes how McMaster then trained the 3rd ACR for its return to Iraq:

In Colorado, McMaster and his officers, most of them veterans of the war’s first year, improvised a new way to train for Iraq. Instead of preparing for tank battles, the regiment bought dozens of Arab dishdashas, which the Americans call “man dresses,” and acted out a variety of realistic scenarios, with soldiers and Arab-Americans playing the role of Iraqis. “We need training that puts soldiers in situations where they need to make extremely tough choices,” Captain Sellars, the troop commander, said. “What are they going to see at the traffic control point? They’re possibly going to have a walk-up suicide bomber—O.K., let’s train that. They’re going to have an irate drunk guy that is of no real threat—let’s train that. They’re going to have a pregnant lady that needs to get through the checkpoint faster—O.K., let’s train that.” Pictures of Shiite saints and politicians were hung on the walls of a house, and soldiers were asked to draw conclusions about the occupants. Soldiers searching the house were given the information they wanted only after they had sat down with the occupants three or four times, accepted tea, and asked the right questions. Soldiers filmed the scenarios and, afterward, analyzed body language and conversational tone. McMaster ordered his soldiers never to swear in front of Iraqis or call them “hajjis” in a derogatory way (this war’s version of “gook”). Some were selected to take three-week courses in Arabic language and culture; hundreds of copies of “The Modern History of Iraq,” by Phebe Marr, were shipped to Fort Carson; and McMaster drew up a counterinsurgency reading list that included classic works such as T. E. Lawrence’s “Seven Pillars of Wisdom,” together with “Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife,” a recent study by Lieutenant Colonel John Nagl, a veteran of the Iraq war.

Sellars told me, “I don’t know how many times I’ve thought, and then heard others say, ‘Wish I’d known that the first time.’ ” The rehearsals in Colorado, he said, amounted to a recognition that “this war is for the people of Iraq.” Sellars, who grew up in a family of lumber millers in rural Arkansas, described it as a kind of training in empathy. “Given these circumstances, what would be my reaction?” he asked. “If I was in a situation where my neighbor had gotten his head cut off, how would I react? If it was my kid that had gotten killed by mortars, how would I react?”

McMaster’s standing orders to his soldiers stressed an important principle of counterinsurgency, the goal of which is to earn the trust of the population: treating Iraqis with dignity and respect. “Every time you treat an Iraqi disrespectfully, you are working for the enemy.” “Treat detainees professionally; do not tolerate abusive behavior.”

Return to Iraq

As the insurgency metastasized in 2005, the U.S military had three alternatives: continue offensive operations along the lines of those in Anbar after Fallujah; adopt a counterinsurgency approach; or emphasize the training of Iraqi troops in order to transition to Iraqi control of military operations. Gen. John Abizaid, commander of the US Central Command, and Gen. George Casey, commander of Multi-National Forces-Iraq (MNF-I), supported by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Gen. Richard Myers, chose the third.

But while transitioning to Iraqi control was a logical option for the long run, it did little to solve the proximate problem of the insurgency and the sectarian violence that it had generated. Based on the belief by many senior commanders, especially Abizaid, that U.S. troops were an “antibody” to Iraqi culture, the Americans consolidated their forces on large “forward operating bases” (FOBs), maintaining a presence only by means of motorized patrols that were particularly vulnerable to attacks by IEDs. This approach—sometimes called “commuter counterinsurgency”—ceded territory and population alike to the insurgents. McMaster, along with many other officers in Iraq believed this approach was a mistake. As McMaster clearly understood, security of the population is the fundamental basis of any successful counterinsurgency strategy.

The withdrawal of U.S. forces to FOBs also contributed to a “kick-in-the-door” mentality among American troops when they did interact with Iraqis. This undermined U.S. attempts to pacify the country and was completely at odds with an effective counterinsurgency approach. It was not until the appointment of Gen. David Petraeus as commander MNF-I in January of 2007 and the implementation of a new counterinsurgency doctrine in conjunction with a troop “surge” that the situation in Iraq began to turn around.

Upon arriving in Iraq in January 2005, 3rd ACR initially deployed to the South Baghdad area of operations where it operated for nearly two months. But in early April, Gen. Casey ordered the regiment to Tal Afar in an attempt to reverse the deteriorating security situation in western Nineveh Province. Its mission was to achieve “area security,” which involved not only such traditional cavalry operations as reconnaissance and offensive operations but also security of the population.

Tal Afar is an ancient city of 200,000 in western Nineveh Province 200 miles north of Baghdad and 50 miles west of Mosul, a city of 2.5 million. The population of Tal Afar is Turkman, of which 75 percent are Shia and 25 percent Sunni. In the fall of 2004, coalition and Iraqi forces had swept through the city but as the coalition presence was subsequently reduced, foreign fighters began to infiltrate into the region from nearby Syria and establish contact with local insurgents. With the collapse of Iraqi security forces in Tal Afar, the insurgents were able to intimidate the locals, turning the city and the region around it into an insurgent training area and staging base from which to launch terror attacks against Mosul. For instance in May of 2005, the enemy conducted over 210 attacks in Tal Afar—over 7 per day—which accounted for over ten percent of all attacks in the Iraq theater of Operations.  Most of these attacks were in keeping with AQI’s desire to create chaos and foment sectarian violence.

The city was important to both the insurgents and the coalition because of its location along routes that lead from Mosul to Syria.  By dominating Tal Afar and western Nineveh Province, the insurgents had access to external support in Syria.  The ethnic divisions in Tal Afar also provided an opening for al Qaeda in Iraq to foment ethnic and sectarian violence and create a chaotic environment, causing Iraq to fail and descend into civil war.

According to McMaster, Tel Afar was a microcosm of Iraq as a whole:

[Here you had] the alliance of convenience between al-Qaeda and the former regime element of the insurgency. It is an area where the Iraqi Intel Service (IIS) was very strong because Saddam was worried about the Kurds and he was also worried about the Turkmen population. So, he hired a lot of people who were up there really just to intimidate and keep their eye on the population there in Western Ninewa Province. As I mentioned, there were really strong ethnic tensions between the Turkmen, the Kurds, and the Sunni Arabs and al-Qaeda in Iraq, in particular, and its two main organizations up there, Khatab Razul Allah and the “Battalions of the One True God.” So, they really capitalized on that by doing everything they could to foment ethnic violence between Kurds and Sunni Arabs, but especially sectarian violence between Shia Turkmen and Sunni Turkmen, and they were able to initiate sort of a cycle of sectarian violence in Tal Afar, in particular, that sort of thrust that city into chaos and essentially choked the life out of that city. In many ways, you could already see the same tactics that they would apply to other communities, other mixed sectarian communities, Samarra, for example, and then sort of Baghdad being the most dramatic and large scale example of the effort to incite sectarian conflict to create conditions of chaos under which the enemy can then operate more freely and gain control of areas in the wake of the collapse of security forces and so forth. So, they applied that approach all through Ninewa Province and largely succeeded in gaining control of Western Ninewa, which had advantages for them based again on wanting to set conditions for civil war in the long term. I mean, their long term strategy was essentially based on the Afghanistan analogy, after the Soviet forces withdrew, the conditions were set for civil war and what the Takfiris [Muslims who accuse other Muslims of apostasy] affiliated with al-Qaeda wanted was then the opportunity to support one faction and then gain control of the area. It was also an area where Ansar al-Sunna was very strong and that was the umbrella organization that sort of subsumed within it the Takfiris affiliated with al-Qaeda as well as the former regime element of the insurgency.

And this area is conducive to those sort (sic) of efforts because you have an ethnic minority here:  the Turkmen.  You have – that – ethnic minority is further divided between a majority of Turkmen Sunna and a minority of Turkmen Shi’ia.  And this city of Turkmen exists in an area that also includes other ethnic and sectarian groups, including Sunni Arabs and Izedis, and then also Kurds in the region.

So the enemy moved into here to establish this support base and safe haven.  They also moved into this area because there’s very dense urban terrain in the city of Tal Afar.  It’s difficult for our forces, organized as we are as a mechanized force, primarily, to access these areas.  And so the enemy went into this safe haven and used it not only to access sources of external support, but they also used this area to train, organize, and equip their forces for employment not only locally here in Tal Afar, but without (sic) the region and potentially throughout the country.  So it was very important for us to deny the enemy the ability to use this safe haven and to terrorize this population.

The situation that McMaster faced is described by Packard in the New Yorker:

By the time two squadrons of the 3rd A.C.R. reached the outskirts of Tal Afar, in the spring of 2005, the city was being terrorized by takfirin—Sunni extremists who believe that Muslims who don’t subscribe to their brand of Islam, especially Shiites, are infidels and should be killed. The city was central to the strategy of the Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi; Tal Afar had become a transit point for foreign fighters arriving from Syria, and a base of operations in northern Iraq. Zarqawi exploited tribal and sectarian divisions among the city’s poor and semiliterate population, which consists mostly of Turkmans, rather than Arabs….The mayor was a pro-insurgent Sunni. The police chief, appointed by the government of Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, was a Shiite. His all-Shiite force was holed up in an area of high ground in the middle of the city known as the Castle, which is surrounded by sixteenth-century Ottoman ramparts. Unable to control the city, the Shiite police sent out commandos (McMaster described them as a “death squad”) to kidnap and kill Sunnis. Outside the Castle, radical young Sunnis left headless corpses of Shiites in the streets as a warning to anyone who contemplated cooperating with the Americans or the Iraqi government. Shiites living in mixed neighborhoods fled. “The Shia and Sunni communities fell in on themselves,” McMaster said. “They became armed camps in direct military competition with one another.”

McMasters’ ultimate goal in Tal Afar was to establish the conditions “for enduring security in these areas with capable and legitimate security forces that can withstand the intimidation and coercion of the enemy.”

McMaster revealed his way of thinking about Tal Afar to Packer of the New Yorker. “When we came to Iraq, we didn’t understand the complexity—what it meant for a society to live under a brutal dictatorship, with ethnic and sectarian divisions. When we first got here, we made a lot of mistakes. We were like a blind man, trying to do the right thing but breaking a lot of things….You gotta come in with your ears open. You can’t come in and start talking. You have to really listen to people.” He also told Packer, “It is so damn complex. If you ever think you have the solution to this, you’re wrong, and you’re dangerous. You have to keep listening and thinking and being critical and self-critical. Remember General Nivelle, in the First World War, at Verdun? He said he had the solution, and then destroyed the French Army until it mutinied.”

This flexibility of mind served the 3rd ACR well during the Tal Afar operation. For three months, the regiment, operating from dispersed locations throughout the AOR, employed cordon and search operations to squeeze the insurgents out of the villages around Tal Afar, e.g. Biaj, and Avgani, and interdicted infiltration routes from Syria. This was not an easy task, given the fact that McMaster’s AOR spanned 33,000 square kilometers and included 278 kilometers of the Syrian/Iraqi border, including the only legal port of entry from Syria at Rabiyah.  During this period, the regiment also became acquainted with the 83 tribes that called western Nineveh Province home.

In preparing to assault Tal Afar the 3rd ACR did not “hunker down” on a large FOB. McMaster was critical of the idea that the Americans should reduce their footprint and engage in “commuter counterinsurgency.” He fully understood the consequences of this approach:

What happened, obviously, in 2004 was that al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and their associated former regime element based insurgent organizations decided to attack these nascent Iraqi Security Forces before they had the resiliency to withstand those kinds of attacks and intimidation and you see a very deliberate campaign to do that. I mean, you can see it with the large scale bombings of police recruiting stations and then the relentless attacks on Iraqi Security Forces in Ninewa Province when we were focusing in Anbar in November in preparation for Fallujah II. Ninewa essentially becomes destabilized as police forces collapse and the border police force and the Iraqi Army formation at Kisik all collapse between the summer and fall of 2004 in a very concerted campaign to establish control of an important area, important because of the ethnic, the sectarian, the tribal dynamics that are conducive to jumpstarting the kind of civil war al-Qaeda wants to start in Iraq and also as an area that gives them access to support into Syria, where the external regime of Saddam resided, as well as being a principal source for suicide bombers and foreign fighters affiliated with al-Qaeda, recruited and moved into the country by al-Qaeda. So, you know, the enemy recognized, and I think Zarqawi says so I think in a letter in October 2003, that, “Once these security forces become strong, we are screwed.” So, they went after these security forces and because we were maybe too focused on getting out and reducing our footprint we left these security forces before they had the ability to withstand this intensified enemy action.

“Commuter counterinsurgency” was the result of what McMaster called a “raiding mentality” arising from the RMA-“transformation” concepts of the 1990s:

But, in the 1990s, as we were abandoning the whole idea that you need to conduct security operations, which was all tied to this defense transformation BS of the 1990s and this belief that technology can lift the fog of war and that warfare was network centric now and really to solve the problem of future war you just had to do this nodal analysis of your enemy, conduct surveillance, and then attack targets. Targeting became tactics and it became interchangeable and our whole planning process became very process driven. I mean, we really got infected with a lot of bad ideas in the 1990s and the Army embraced a lot of these bad ideas. FM 1, developed in the late 1990s, couldn’t have been further off the mark in terms of the true nature of combat on land. So, I think we just really bought into what has now been revealed as kind of this nonsensical idea of the nature of conflict. In the 1990s, people were saying, “You will never do movements to contact anymore because you are going to know everything about the enemy.” Well, hell. On every mission, in every moment of the mission on the attack to Baghdad, it was a movement to contact. And we have written security operations out of our doctrine, while, in both wars, in Afghanistan and Iraq, that is what we do every single day in both places. So, I think what happened in this period of time was this nodal analysis type thing, which is really Air Force doctrine, a sort of strategic bombing doctrine in a new form, got grafted into the Army and developed what I call kind of a raiding mentality, that you can achieve your objectives in war by raids, which by definition are of short duration for a specific purpose with a plan to withdraw. So, the idea was that you could use your specialized intelligence collection capabilities and then, based on that intelligence picture you developed with sensitive capabilities, you could raid and then win in a counterinsurgency, which, if you read and think about previous experiences in counterinsurgency campaigns and also just pay attention to what the enemy is doing in Iraq, you would recognize that kind of approach isn’t going to work and what is necessary is an approach that relies mainly on area security and a broad counterinsurgency approach to the problems. So, I think there were some people who may have been more biased, and this is an oversimplification, obviously, to a raiding approach to solving the problems in Iraq.

As McMaster’s 3rd ACR pacified the villages around Tal Afar, the insurgents in the city resorted to more extreme measures of intimidation against the population. Nonetheless, by August, insurgent attacks numbered only three per day, down from seven per day in May. Meanwhile, on the advice of the Iraqi army, the 3rd ACR constructed an eight-foot high thick dirt berm around the city that restricted traffic to a few checkpoints.

In September, having prepared the battlefield, McMaster rolled into Tal Afar with an overwhelming force of 5,000 Iraqi and 3,800 American soldiers, including 2nd battalion, 325th Parachute Regiment, a battalion of the 82nd Airborne Division, quickly killing or capturing 300 insurgents. Then, slowly and systematically, the 3rd ACR extended security throughout the city, avoiding the “whack-a-mole” syndrome that affected so many other operations during that time in Iraq. The operation was an example of what then-Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called “clear, hold, build.”

We phased the operation like that, obviously, to isolate the enemy from external support and to contain the enemy in Tal Afar. Then the “clear” phase was the major combat operations phase and the key thing, I mentioned some of the shaping activities that we had to do prior to the operation, was getting all our resources allocated and ready to apply after we were able to defeat the enemy in Tal Afar to ensure that we could impose enduring security there and we could position capable and legitimate security forces in all neighborhoods of the city so that the security improvements could be sustained and strengthened over time, while, at the same time, rekindling hope among the population to create more stakeholders in the improved security situation, which was a lot of the short term reconstruction effort that we did on the backside of the operation.

American and Iraqi soldiers moved block by block into the city, encountering heavy resistance. Ultimately, the regiment lost twenty-one soldiers in northwestern Iraq, and one platoon suffered a casualty rate of forty per cent. McMaster understood that while an insurgency cannot be defeated by strictly military means, it is still necessary to kill and capture those who need to be killed and captured. “The ability to carry the fight to the enemy is the ‘buy-in’ for any unit. But in a counterinsurgency, firepower must be disciplined, deliberate, and discriminating.”

The regiment pushed into Surai, the oldest, densest part of the city, which had become the base of insurgent operations. Heavy fighting raged for several days. Most of the civilians in the area, who had been warned of the coming attack, fled ahead of the action (of course, an unknown number of insurgents escaped with them), and though many buildings were demolished, the damage to the city wasn’t close to the destruction of Fallujah in November, 2004.

McMaster observed that the battle in and around Tal Afar “was a squadron and below fight.” As a regimental commander he had to establish the conceptual foundation for what his subordinates were doing, to provide resources to his subordinate organizations, to ensure that units were cooperating, to “visualize and resource the development” of Iraqi forces. He also saw it as his responsibility to help in the establishment of the rule of law in the city, to reestablish basic services, and address the grievances of the community that arose as a result of the fighting. “But, really, the guys were making it happen, our squadron commanders and troop commanders and platoon leaders.”

McMaster also praised the courage of the elements of the Third Iraqi Division, with whom the 3rd ACR operated. “They were very good at doing certain things, such as ‘reading’ the situation, where we came up short. On one occasion, it was an Iraqi soldier who realized that a man walking with some children as civilians evacuated the city, was in fact an insurgent. He had told the children that if they did not keep quiet, he would kill them.”

While heavy fighting continued, the commander of the first squadron of the regiment to reach Tal Afar, Lt. Col. Chris Hickey, was becoming familiar with the local power structure, spending many hours over several months with sheiks from Tal Afar’s dozens of tribes: first the Shiite sheikhs, to convince them that the Americans could be counted on to secure their neighborhoods; and then the Sunni sheikhs, many of whom were passive or active supporters of the insurgency. By doing so, Hickey came to understand the social intricacies of Tal Afar’s neighborhoods, so that his men would know how a raid on a particular house would be perceived by the rest of the street.

McMaster himself met with sheiks and clerics who had ties to the insurgency and apologized for past American mistakes. But then he admonished them that “the time for honorable resistance had ended.” As McMaster describes it:

Well, Lieutenant Colonel Chris Hickey did a tremendous job with the Tal Afar leaders, in the Sunni community in particular, and I became more and more involved with that as Operation Restoring Rights came closer, and we were able to make it clear to the population that this was not an attack on Tal Afar. This was an operation for Tal Afar, for the people of Tal Afar, to restore their lives to a degree of normalcy, to have a better life for their kids, to restore basic services, and to address other grievances, like the reconstitution of the police force, for example.

Having successfully achieved the objective of clearing the city of insurgents, the 3rd ACR now began to implement the “hold” phase of the Tal Afar operation.  The regiment maintained a continuous presence in Tal Afar by establishing some thirty joint U.S.-Iraqi combat outposts throughout the city of fifteen square kilometers, approximately one outpost for every five or six city blocks. As one of McMaster’s officers said, “There are two ways to do counterinsurgency. You can come in, cordon off a city, and level it, à la Fallujah. Or you can come in, get to know the city, the culture, establish relationships with the people, and then you can go in and eliminate individuals instead of whole city blocks.” The second way requires patience and is often at odds with the basic instincts and training of soldiers. As another officer remarked, “The tedium of counterinsurgency ops, the small, very incremental gains—our military culture doesn’t lend itself to that kind of war. There are no glorious maneuvers like at the National Training Center, where you destroy the Krasnovian hordes. It’s just a slow grind, and you have to have patience.”

Establishing population security paid benefits in other ways. According to McMaster, “we were able to gain access to intelligence here by a very good relationship with the people, who recognized this enemy for who they are and were very forthcoming with human intelligence. In one raid…were able to capture 26 targeted individuals, some of the worst people here in Tal Afar, within a 30-minute period. And the enemy began to realize this isn’t working either, they can’t hide in plain sight anymore.”

Once the fighting died down and 3rd ACR had established a permanent presence in Tal Afar, McMaster initiated the “build’ phase of the operation.

[We used] our Commander’s Emergency Response Program (CERP) money for initial cleanup and then for other key activities to reestablish normalcy, to get markets back open and to fix and repair roads. We bought all the transformers, for example, to reestablish electricity across the city. So, within like two weeks of the operation, whereas before only about 30 percent of the city had electricity, 100 percent of the city had electricity. We had purchased water trucks so we could run clean water while we fixed the big water mains and everything in the city. So, again, where only about 30 percent of the city had clean water before the operation, immediately after the operation 100 percent of the city had clean water and then over the period of the next two months all the water mains were repaired and so forth as well. These kinds of activities were really important.

All the schools were refurbished and reequipped with new furniture and blackboards. We were able to get the Director General from Mosul out so that the instructional materials were there and he hired 70 new teachers so that when schools reopened, about a month after the operation, they had adequate teachers and that part of community life was normal again. We were able to secure the slots for police training in Jordan. MNSTC-I, again, helped us tremendously in giving us priority for those slots. And when we recruited the police, if you remember that I told you that only three guys showed up before the operation, thousands showed up after the operation, after we were able to lift the pall of fear off the community. People came forward; we screened those people very thoroughly; we sent them for a week of military training at Kirkuk for basic weapons competency and a sort of weeding out of guys even more, putting them through a rigorous program; we sent them to Jordan; and then we were able to get them money so that when they came back from Jordan we gave them their first pay right on the spot. We gave them two weeks leave, they came back, and then they went to Kisik with the Iraqi Army, which was one of the ways to integrate the army and the police. The army helped train the police. So, we did collective training with the new police force in about a 10 to 12 day program, I can’t remember exactly, at Al Kisik, and then introduced units of police into these new police stations. But, all this stuff had to be planned before the operation so that when the operation was over it was all ready to go.

Ideally, what we wanted to do [with CERP money] was to provide the infrastructure and to reconstruct the infrastructure in a way that it would have enduring effect in the community and that it would help clarify our intentions and win on the battleground of perception and so forth, address the basic needs and grievances of the community, and reduce the pool of public discontent and support for the insurgency. So, we really just wanted to have enduring effects. For instance, digging wells for clean water in the western part of the AO was a high impact endeavor, schools were always very important to everybody within the community, as was electricity. So, we used it mainly for basic services.

But according to Bing West in The Strongest Tribe, “McMaster’s real success was not clearing and holding the city by setting up out posts,” but by “overcoming the sectarian feud” that had previously rent the city.” McMaster removed Tal Afar’s corrupt Shia police chief and his 133 handpicked deputies and replaced them with a balanced Shia-Sunni police force of 1,700 men.   He also provided money to be distributed by a joint Shia-Sunni city council. “Both the city leaders, who gained power through control of the purse, and the population, who gained security and services, had an incentive to oppose those who supported a return of the takfiris.”Well, Lieutenant Colonel Chris Hickey did a tremendous

Conclusion

The security situation in Tal Afar deteriorated after the departure of the 3rd ACR. In April of 2007, a truck bomb in the Shia section of the city killed over a hundred and fifty people. A retaliatory attack resulted in the death of 70 Sunni. While sectarian violence has continued, the city has neither reverted to AQI control nor suffered the level of violence that existed there before the arrival of the 3rd ACR.

McMaster was not directly involved in the drafting of the 2006 Army-Marine Corps counterinsurgency manual, FM 3-24, which provided the template for the “surge” implemented by Gen. David Petraeus beginning in January of 2007. However, McMaster was asked to comment on early drafts and chapter 5 of the manual uses the Tal Afar operation as an example of how to execute a “clear, hold, build” counterinsurgency operation. Tal Afar also provided the model for the successful clearing of Ramadi, which began the turnaround in al Anbar Province.

McMaster’s Tal Afar operation and similar ones in al Anbar Province demonstrated that individuals and units within the Army and Marine Corps could learn and adapt on their own to changing circumstances. McMaster was able to see what needed to be done to achieve success in the context of a counterinsurgency situation, develop a vision for his regiment’s operation in Nineveh Province, and then implement it.

Editor’s Note: In light of Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster’s appointment as President Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor, we are publishing the above case study written by FPRI Senior Fellow Mac Owens, who wrote it for his class “Leadership 11-2” in the National Security Affairs Department at the United States Naval War College in May 2009.

About the author:
*Mackubin (Mac) T. Owens
is a Senior Fellow of the Foreign Policy Research Institute and editor of Orbis, FPRI’s quarterly journal. He is also Dean of Academic Affairs and Professor at the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C.

Source:
This article was published by FPRI.

Sources:
Owens interview with BGEN H.R. McMaster, 9 June 2009.

McMaster, Press Briefing on Overview of Operation Restoring Rights in Tal Afar, 13 September, 2005, http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=2106.

After Action Report, “The 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment in Operation Iraqi Freedom III.”

Interview with Col. H.R. McMaster, 7 January 2008, Contemporary Operations Study Team, Combat Studies Institute, Fort Leavenworth, KS.

George Packard, “Letter from Iraq,” The New Yorker, 10 April, 2006.

Tom Ricks, The Gamble: General David Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2006-2008, New York: Penguin, 2009.

Bing West, The Strongest Tribe: War, Politics, and the Endgame in Iraq, New York: Random House, 2008.

Mackubin Thomas Owens, “Renegotiating the Civil-Military Bargain After 9/11,” Tom Donnelly, ed., The War We’re In: AEI Studies in Land Power, Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute, 2009.

Spreading The Gospel: Asian Leaders Wary Of Saudi Religious Diplomacy – Analysis

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Critics in the Maldives likely sighed relief when Saudi King Salman this week postponed his visit because of an outbreak of flu. The flu is however unlikely to halt a planned massive Saudi investment or the impact on Maldives society of the kingdom’s religion-driven public diplomacy.

Big ticket investments and countering political violence dominated the headlines of the king’s tour of Asia together with the extravagance of his travel – an entourage of at least 1,000, 459 tonnes of luggage, a golden electric elevator for the monarch to descend from his private plane, and a specially built toilet for his visit to a Jakarta mosque.

Yet, religion often was an elephant in the room on most stops on King Salman’s trip that took him to Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, China and Japan and that was supposed to also include the Maldives.

All countries on the king’s itinerary feel the impact of a more than four-decade long Saudi soft power effort to spread Sunni Muslim ultra-conservatism in a bid to counter the potential appeal of Iran, whose regime came to power in a popular revolt and that in contrast to the autocratic kingdom recognizes some degree of popular sovereignty.

The Saudi effort, the single largest public diplomacy campaign in history, has fostered across the Muslim world greater conservatism, anti-Shiite and anti-Ahmadi sectarianism, intolerance, and a roll back of basic freedoms through among others tough anti-blasphemy laws.

To be sure, the Saudi campaign is one of several initiatives by Eurasian powers to assert influence across a swath of land stretching from Turkey to China. Yet, it is the one with the largest war chest except for China’s One Belt, One Road initiative.

The Saudi campaign moreover focuses on changing societies rather than exclusively on economics and security as in the case of China or Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union. Other powers build their efforts on ethnic or historic kinship as Turkey does with its neo-Ottomanism or India by forging closer ties to its Diaspora.

In some countries, such as Malaysia and Brunei, whose rulers seek legitimacy through greater public piety and association with Islam, Saudi religious diplomacy is a welcome contribution. In his role as Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, a reference to the Muslim holy cities of Mecca and Medina, King Salman bestowed with his visit religious legitimacy on his hosts.

Saudi Arabia’s public diplomacy may also be boosted by mounting repression in Egypt that threatens foreign students at Cairo’s Al Azhar University, long the citadel of Islamic learning. Al Azhar is often viewed as an anti-dote to the ultra-conservatism of Saudi religious education. Repression in Egypt could, however, drive students to Saudi institutions instead.

Datuk Seri Idris Jusoh, Malaysia’s minister of higher education, told reporters in February that his ministry was no longer giving scholarships for study in Egypt. An estimated 11,000 Malaysians study in the North African country. “Right now, the situation in Egypt has not fully settled down, our embassy there is still monitoring the security situation there,” Mr. Idris said.

The risks involved in an embrace of Saudi-inspired Sunni ultra-conservatism are never far. Decades of Saudi funding often creates an environment that is not inherently violent in and of itself but enables breeding grounds for more militant interpretations of the faith that target not only local environments but also the kingdom itself.

“Saudi oil money has been changing the religious make-up of Malaysians since the 1970s, but more direct penetration of Saudis in the religious sphere may change the outlook of ordinary Malaysians further,” said Malaysia scholar Norshahril Saat in a recent commentary on King Salman’s visit.

Malaysia detained at least seven suspects in advance of King Salman’s arrival who allegedly were planning to attack the monarch. Two months earlier, police opened an investigation into a Saudi-backed university in Selangor, the International University of Al-Madinah, after two of its students were detained on suspicion of being militants.

Established in 2006, the university’s religious teachings have long been suspected by authorities of promoting extremism. The university has denied the allegations. But a top Malaysian counter-terrorism official, Ayob Khan Mydin Pitchay, said that efforts to persuade the university to change its syllabi had so far come to naught.

While symbolism may have worked in favour of the rulers of Malaysia and Brunei, Indonesia’s Joko Widodo, president of a country that prides itself on its tolerant version of Islam, appears to have subtly turned the tables on King Salman. In an effort to portray himself as the leader of all Indonesian Muslims and to counter growing ultra-conservative influence, Mr. Widodo employed Javanese cultural concepts of tolerance and dialogue.

Symbolism was evident in differing welcomes of the king in Java and Bali. Nude statues that dot the botanic gardens at the Presidential Palace in Bogor, about 40 kilometres outside of Jakarta, were covered with potted plants to avoid offending the Saudis. Predominantly Hindu Bali decided to do nothing of the sort.

In meetings with major Indonesian Islamic organizations, including Nahdlatul Ulama, a 91-year old, traditionalist movement that has opposition to Wahhabism, the ultra-conservative strand of Islam that legitimizes the rule of the Sauds, written into its DNA, King Salman said Indonesia and his country had agreed to promote a more moderate version of the faith.

“It’s all sublime messaging and imaging. Jokowi played Salman beautifully. Masterful his use of Javanese culture. The Saudi’s just don’t know yet,” said Leonard Sebastian, a leading Indonesia expert at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).

To be sure, King Salman’s predecessor, King Abdullah already started cautiously reaching out to other strands of Islam as well as other faiths. Moreover, Vision 2030, the plan to diversify the Saudi economy and upgrade the kingdom’s autocracy, seeks to deprive ultra-conservatism in Saudi Arabia of its rough edges and bring it more in line with the 21stcentury.

It also seeks to counter militant ideological offspring, including jihadism, by promoting an interpretation of Islam that dictates unconditional obedience to the ruler. The problem is that more than four decades of Saudi support has created a family of worldviews that leads their own lives, no longer are dependent on Saudi funding, and includes activist segments critical of the Al Sauds as well as their own rulers.

It’s not clear to what degree ideological reforms King Salman’s son and deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, is introducing in the kingdom trickle down to Saudi-funded institutions elsewhere. Saudi Arabia said during King Salman’s visit that it would be opening two new campuses in Makassar and Medan of its Jakarta-based Islamic and Arabic College of Indonesia (LIPIA), a branch of Imam Muhammad ibn Saud Islamic University in Riyadh.

Mounting concern about growing ultra-conservatism in China’s troubled north-western Xinjiang province, home to the Uyghurs, ethnic Turks who stubbornly seek to preserve their culture and identity as well as among the Hui, a wholly integrated Muslim community, could complicate relations with Saudi Arabia.

China and Saudi Arabia trumpeted their strategic relations during King Salman’s visit, yet Beijing has done little to counter rising Islamophobia in the media and among Chinese officials.

To lay the groundwork for a $10bn investment that would give the kingdom control of an Indian Ocean atoll, Saudi Arabia funded religious institutions in the Maldives and offered scholarships for students to pursue religious studies at the it’s ultra-conservative universities.

The funding has pushed the Maldives, a popular high-end tourist destination, towards greater intolerance and public piety. Public partying, mixed dancing and Western beach garb have become acceptable only within expensive tourist resorts.

The Saudis “have had a good run of propagating their world view to the people of the Maldives and they’ve done that for the last three decades. They’ve now, I think, come to the view that they have enough sympathy to get a foothold,” said former Maldives president Mohamed Nasheed said.

The Trump Challenge: Unpredictability As Norm – Analysis

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Forecasting uncertainty is a full-fledged task for security and foreign policy analysts, but when countries resort to being unpredictable then it is likely to backfire. Uncertainty about his next course of action seems to be Trump’s defining characteristic. How India will manage this to better relations will be critical.

By Amit Dasgupta*

The great mind game that security and foreign policy analysts play is forecasting uncertainty and fashioning a response. Success depends on the accuracy of predictions.

Terror groups thrive on being unpredictable: it’s integral to their strategy. With no foreknowledge of when and where they will strike, all that the government and security agencies can assume is the deadly intensity they will employ. Attack thus becomes the best form of defense, such as the surgical strikes that India used. In anticipation of a breach, one firewalls every element in the chain while strengthening the weakest link. At the same time, pre-emptive action is taken based on intelligence to strike terrorist camps and hideouts.

Military and counter intelligence agencies also follow ‘being unpredictable’ as a strategy. The argument is that it provides the element of surprise, and thus, gains them the upper hand. The U.S. Seal operation to kill Osama bin Laden in Pakistan is a clear example of how surprise operations are used with telling effect. Mossad is regularly known to resort to unanticipated action against terrorist operatives, including drone strikes and kidnappings. Today, it has even become fashionable to tout it as a mantra in certain management circles.

It’s when countries or companies adopt it as strategy that it is likely to backfire for it impacts trust. People gravitate towards comfort zones, not uncertainty. North Korea offers a not so shining example. Its every action is considered suspect for being based on uncertainty. ‘Will they, won’t they and how will they’ is the sole plank on which the country’s foreign policy is built. Their recent alleged involvement in a high-powered assassination in Malaysia is yet another example of their unpredictable behaviour.

Beijing, similarly, has regularly challenged the certainty norm. This neither wins friends nor influences people: it breeds mistrust.

History is full of examples that demonstrate the importance of certainty. The Cuban Missile Crisis is a case in point, when the world stood on the brink of a devastating war between two nuclear armed countries. The tipping point lay entirely on who would blink first. Backroom negotiations finally broke the impasse, but more importantly, it helped establish a protocol between Moscow and Washington, which enabled predictability.

Within a week of assuming charge, President Trump made it clear that his administration was not going to be remembered for reliable or predictable patterns. Uncertainty about his next course of action was to be his defining characteristic. This is worrisome.

Mark Chussil[1] argues that the opposite of ‘unpredictable’ is not ‘predictable’, but ‘strategy’. Leadership, for instance, is a strategic choice: being unpredictable does not enable it. Leaders build teams and enhance group performance by conveying end objectives and rationale upfront and with clarity. No one trusts a leader who uses a ‘Keep them guessing’ approach.

Secrecy and uncertainty should not be confused. Secrecy is good and regularly adopted as strategy while uncertainty needs to be seen as a viable tactic, but not viewed as being synonymous with strategy.

An unpredictable and volatile U.S, President can be a source of significant discomfort. The manner in which even allies have started to distance themselves from his announcements and actions demonstrates how uncertainty alienates friends and strengthens foes.

Security and foreign policy analysts find him the single biggest challenge to decode principally because countries do not have the option of whether to engage with Washington or not. Washington is central to the foreign and security policy calculus of all countries.

Historically, the impact the U.S. Presidential elections typically have on global affairs and public sentiment is extraordinary. Markets rise or fall, social media is overcrowded with comments and cartoons, and foreign offices and national security agencies across the globe work over time to predict who the next person occupying the White House will be and what to expect.

Trump’s ascendancy has drawn polarised reactions. His own statements and actions, both before and after being sworn in, have not won widespread support nor have they been predictable. Even his brief conversations with world leaders have left analysts floundering. Worse still, his statements have been interpreted as a license by many Americans to resort to action that is condemnable. The recent killing of an Indian who looked ‘Middle Eastern’ is only a symptom of what runs deeper. The sustained interrogation by security officials of the legendary boxer Muhammad Ali’s son on his religious beliefs and practices is another. This will only grow, as hate crimes become the norm. How, when, if at all, and with what intensity, the U.S. administration will react to such behaviour is not clear.

A confused response is dangerous because risk is an immediate consequence of the unknown. Hasty analysis and judgments only confound matters. A zealous media is tempted to draw quick conclusions based on gestures and words. An abrupt or terse telephone call is viewed as giving someone the cold shoulder while a visa withdrawal signals a fundamental policy shift. While interpreting nuances in speech and action is important in foreign policy analysis, haste is unhelpful, and could, in fact, distort how a situation is perceived.

India needs to be cautious in her approach if we are to further strengthen Indo-U.S. relations. It will be naive to assume that Washington will go about taming China or controlling Pakistan. Or that it will welcome the outsourcing of jobs to India or rethink its current objections to short-term visas for professionals. It is critical for India to identify other potential threats that could directly impact its core strategic interests and prepare for them.

After all, the one thing that Trump is focused on is U.S. self-interest. It is the plank on which he was elected and one on which his focus will be unwavering. He can hardly be faulted on this as it is the raison d’etre of any nation’s domestic, foreign and security policy.

New Delhi needs to recognise that the very terms of engagement with Washington have to be redrawn to enable the U.S. to continue to see India as a relevant partner in her reoriented worldview and for India to improve her capacity to manoeuvre in Washington.

The most major challenge before foreign and security policy analysts across the globe is how President Trump and his administration will be engaged. At its heart lies the ability of governments and practitioners to manage the unpredictable and recognise impermanence as the new normal. This is far more difficult than it sounds.

About the author:
*Amit Dasgupta
is a former Indian diplomat. He contributes to Gateway House in his personal capacity.

Source:
This feature was written for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations.

References
[1] Chussil, Mark, ‘Why Being Unpredictable Is a Bad Strategy’, Harvard Business Review, 5 January, 2017, <https://hbr.org/2017/01/why-being-unpredictable-is-a-bad-strategy>

Ron Paul: Obamacare Repeal Or Obamacare 2.0? – OpEd

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This Thursday, the House of Representatives will vote on a Republican bill that supposedly repeals Obamacare. However, the bill retains Obamacare’s most destructive features.

That is not to say this legislation is entirely without merit. For example, the bill expands the amount individuals can contribute to a health savings account (HSA). HSAs allow individuals to save money tax-free to pay for routine medical expenses. By restoring individuals’ control over healthcare dollars, HSAs remove the distortions introduced in the healthcare market by government policies encouraging over-reliance on third-party payers.

The legislation also contains other positive tax changes, such a provision allowing individuals to use healthcare tax credits to purchase a “catastrophic-only” insurance policy. Ideally, health insurance should only cover major or catastrophic health events. No one expects their auto insurance to cover routine oil changes, so why should they expect health insurance to cover routine checkups?

Unfortunately the bill’s positive aspects are more than outweighed by its failure to repeal Obamacare’s regulations and price controls. Like all price controls, Obamacare distorts the signals that a freely functioning marketplace sends to consumers and producers, thus guaranteeing chaos in the marketplace. The result of this chaos is higher prices, reduced supply, and lowered quality.

Two particularly insidious Obamacare regulations are guaranteed issue and community ratings. As the name suggests, guaranteed issue forces health insurance companies to issue a health insurance policy to anyone who applies for coverage. Community ratings forces health insurance companies to charge an obese couch potato and a physically-fit jogger similar premiums. This forces the jogger to subsidize the couch potato’s unhealthy lifestyle.

Obamacare’s individual mandate was put in place to ensure that guaranteed issue and community ratings would not drive health insurance companies out of business. Rather than repealing guaranteed issue and community ratings, the House Republicans’ plan forces those who go longer than two months without health insurance to pay a penalty to health insurance companies when they purchase new policies.

It is hard to feel sympathy for the insurance companies since they supported Obamacare. These companies were eager to accept government regulations in exchange for a mandate that individuals buy their product. But we should feel sympathy for Americans who are struggling to afford, or even obtain, healthcare because of Obamacare and who will obtain little or no relief from Obamacare 2.0.

The underlying problem with the Republican proposal is philosophical. The plan put forth by the alleged pro-free-market Republicans implicitly accepts the premise that healthcare is a right that must be provided by government. But rights are inalienable aspects of our humanity, not gifts from government.

If government can give us rights, then it can also limit or even take away those rights. Giving government power to enforce a fictitious right to healthcare justifies government theft and coercion. Thievery and violence do not suddenly become moral when carried out by governments.

Treating healthcare as a right leads to government intervention, which, as we have seen, inevitably leads to higher prices and lower quality. This is why, with the exception of those specialties, like plastic surgery, that are still treated as goods, not rights, healthcare is one of the few areas where innovation leads to increased costs.

America’s healthcare system will only be fixed when a critical mass of people rejects the philosophical and economic fallacies justifying government-run healthcare. Those of us who know the truth must continue to work to spread the ideas of, and grow the movement for, liberty.

This article was published by RonPaul Institute.


The Revolution In Work Calls For An Evolution In Living – OpEd

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Poverty blights the lives of billions of people throughout the world: in developing countries, where it is acute, and industrialised nations, where it’s hidden but growing. It rises out of social injustice, makes exploitation and abuse inevitable, brings death and disease, robs people of opportunity and dignity, feeds anger and resentment.

Much like the rubbish that litters the streets of our cities, the poor, destitute and hungry are swept out of sight. Their existence is an embarrassment to politicians and sits uncomfortably within the shiny materialistic image promoted by cities and countries eager to attract ‘inward investment’.

As more jobs become obsolete due to new technology and the closure of traditional industries, unemployment is set to rise, incomes disappear, and, unless there is a radical reappraisal of the economic environment, poverty levels will rise, perhaps exponentially. In fact, with wages stagnant many of those now living in poverty are actually in work – the ‘working poor’ – trying to survive on a pittance, many of whom cannot feed themselves without the support of food banks.

The Poverty Line

The World Bank claims that in 2013 almost 767 million people (11% of the global population) were living in extreme poverty – defined as income of $1.90 a day. However, a study by the UK’s Overseas Development Institute (ODI) found that more than 2.5 billion people are living “on less than $2 per day.” That’s $2 a day for all living costs; it’s not ‘spending money’. Raise the ‘poverty’ bar to a more realistic $5 a day (the cost of two cups of coffee in a developed country), and over four billion people (two thirds of humanity) slide into the net.

Poverty equals illness and hunger, lack of self-worth and abuse. It is the single greatest cause of death and condemns people to live hopeless lives of relentless hardship. At the same time those born into wealthy families are blessed with opportunities, security and comfort: Simple gifts – rights in fact – that should be the inheritance of every child no matter where or to whom they are born.

Countries may be rich or poor, but the world is bountiful. People starve because they’re poor not because of a shortage of food: there is an abundance of food. The continuing existence of poverty in a world of plenty, a world connected and interdependent as never before, is a crime against our collective humanity. Poverty, together with extreme inequality, should be ended completely and consigned to the past.

Re-designing how we live

The coming Age of the Machine is part of a new time, and offers unprecedented possibilities to re-design the way we live.

Technological innovation will we are told, destroy more jobs than it creates; a development that within the existing economic system engenders fear, but it should be welcomed. Human beings will be liberated from lives of drudgery, allowing time and space to explore life, to examine what it means to be human, to be creative and to collectively redefine what civilization can be. But, as Yanis Varoufakis, Professor of Economic Theory at the University of Athens (former finance minister of Greece) makes clear, in order for everyone to benefit from these opportunities, “every citizen must be granted property rights over part of the wealth that the machines produce.” This requires a completely new approach to how we think about the economy and the way it operates.

The present model – whilst it can boast of successes – is ill equipped to respond to the challenges and opportunities of the time and must go. Materialistic values are built into the system; selfishness, desire and excess promoted, and (speaking generally throughout) whilst philanthropy is part of some corporate strategies, presented with the choice of saving lives but losing money, administrators side with the money. Such is the inherent cynicism and inhumanity that exists within and is promoted by the pervasive paradigm.

Fundamental change has been needed for some time; the Advance of Automation adds one more imperative to the process. A new, sustainable, humane economic model is required worthy of the 21st Century and beyond. A new system charged with meeting human need and safeguarding the environment, and as Yanis Varoufakis says that “conceives of investment in people’s communities; we also need to establish the right to a Universal Basic Income.”

A basic right to life’s requirements

The Revolution in Work requires an Evolution in Living: a new approach, in which the acknowledgment that humanity is one is primary. We are Brothers and Sisters of One Humanity, and the systems that govern our lives should be based on and encourage the realization of this fact. Sharing as a principle that animates human affairs naturally follows such an understanding and when pragmatically applied will allow everyone to live dignified lives free from the fear of poverty. Everyone is entitled to the means required to meet their needs, irrespective of whether they have a job and income or are unable to secure either; quality homes, good health care and inspiring education.

Within the existing paradigm the Imminent Revolution presents us with what Varoufakis describes as a “major dilemma”. Either a world in which the concentration of ownership over the new means of production becomes even more intense, leading “to a stagnating capitalism with [more] extreme inequality and huge incomes for a shrinking percentage of the population, that live behind electrified barriers in privately policed communities, whilst the rest exist in a cesspool of volatility, uncertainty and social misery.”

Or we can move in another direction, “post democracy – post social democracy”, – post ideology per-se. A society in which the means of living – presently money – is freely, unconditionally available to everyone, machines are the servants of humanity and all reap the rewards of their labour.

For the good to be made manifest, a new model is required that redistributes – shares – the “ownership of the means of production”, or at least [ensures] the means of production is redistributed in such a way as to effectively guarantee freedom…this requires a basic income, which is essential.” A Universal Basic Income (UBI) made up either of regular payments or some form of Inheritance Trust – currently only available in wealthy families –, set up to cover the needs of everyone from birth.

The recognition that everyone has a Right to the basic requirements for living goes back to the 18th century. And towards the end of the First World War Bertrand Russell outlined a plan which contained the embryonic idea of UBI and included the suggestion that the amount be varied depending on work “which the community recognizes as useful…when education is finished, no one should be compelled to work, and those who choose not to work should receive a bare livelihood and be left completely free.”

The link with community work is important and should be incorporated into any new system. However, ‘payments’, whether monetary or a sophisticated credit scheme, should not be conditional on such activities. Social engagement will naturally grow from a just economic system that recognizes humanity’s underlying unity.

In the decades since Russell’s proposals, UBI in some form has been attracting increasing interest. Currently various countries are considering UBI: Finland has initiated a two-year trial to pay 2,000 randomly chosen unemployed citizens a basic monthly income, irrespective of whether they find work or not; Scotland is about to pilot a “radical” UBI scheme in two of its local authorities. Glasgow (where it’s estimated a third of children live in poverty) and Fife, because, Councilors say, “it is the best way to tackle poverty”. And perhaps surprisingly, India, where over a third of the poorest people on Earth live, is looking at UBI. Payments would be made to every child and adult, and would guarantee “all citizens enough income to cover their basic needs [and] would promote social justice.”

Changing values

In its current form UBI is not the answer, but it could form an important part of a new progressive economic-social model, and the fact that it is being widely discussed is positive.

Whether ‘payments’ are made in monetary terms or through a new ‘social market,’ as Varoufakis calls it, in which throughout life, everyone is “endowed with capital from society,” UBI would liberate the poor from “vicious welfare-state means testing and the trap of inter-generational poverty”; it would offer “the economic stability that most people are losing” and create a “platform on which they could stand before reaching out for something better.”

In addition to establishing financial security, endowing everyone with the means to meet their needs would have a range of additional benefits. It would demonstrate that the collective society is a compassionate and just one and show that all people are valued equally. Inequality would fade, as would the consequential social ills. Competition would lose its hold, replaced by cooperation, which would become the norm, as would tolerance and trust.

Fear of destitution, exploitation and hunger would be driven from the Earth and the value system under which we live would radically change.

This is not an unattainable utopian vision. It is the realistic picture of a world in which humanity responds creatively and pragmatically to the changes that technology presents us with. It is a positive image, predicated on the recognition of humanity’s essential unity. This realization is crucial if we are to bring about lasting change, and create the conditions for peace; as Yanis Varoufakis states, the question is “do we consider our community to be an extended family of humanity not?”

Afghanistan Of America – OpEd

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October 7th is marked in the very recent history of US-Afghan ties as a major breakthrough, as the former invaded the later to mark the onset of the global war on terror. The post-invasion dreams for the war-shattered, tribally ruled and ethnically divided Afghanistan was to establish a new democratic state based on American liberal values. Some Westerners even thought of building in Afghanistan a South Korea in terms of democracy, rule of law and economic development.

First steps were taken to turn that persistent dream into reality. A new constitution based on democratic values was developed, 350,000 strongmen military equipped with sophisticated weaponry, ammunition and knowledge were established. According to central statistics organization of Afghanistan 44,280km roads were constructed and reconstructed till 2012, thousands of schools were built and millions walked in to educate, health facilities ranging from high profile national hospitals to comprehensive health centers and basic health posts, according to the ministry of public health of Afghanistan reaches 2,488. Based on the new survey by the Afghan government, the nationwide infants’ mortality fell from 66 to 45 for every 1,000 live births between 2001 and 2015. Similarly, for all children under five, the death rate per 1000 fell to 55 from 87. Gross national income per capita in PPP increased from $890 in 2002 to $1940 in 2015. To a large extent, a large number of women were empowered, their political and socio-economical participation enhanced, efficacious media emerged and by and large institutional and capacity building happened. It is all because of the US and coalitions firm support and contributions to the nation. For this Afghans see the international community, particularly, the US people and government as a major contributor.

A malign policy

Meanwhile, the US government and its allies have committed ill-sorted mistakes since the early years of invasion. They involved in encouraging and establishing political patronage networks, invigorated some relentless Jihadi leaders who intrinsically prefer institutional disorder and suffocate institutional building whether it is rule of law, transparency or even state building for self-interest and institutionalized elite bolstering mindset.

At the advent of the war on terror and ousting the Taliban regime in the country, the CIA poured parcels of uncounted dollars to the pockets of erstwhile Jihadi figures to buy their support in the war against terrorism. This led to the emergence of power isles throughout the country.

The scattered mosaic structure of the country which hamper state building to its true sense is the by-product of aforementioned US policy in Afghanistan. In the post 9/11 scenario, the US has strengthened the erstwhile Jihadi leaders who have fought the Soviets and its backed pro-communist regime in Kabul during the 1970s and 1980s by providing them with political as well as financial support in Afghan political structure.

This policy of the US withholds an essential fundamental of democracy if democracy is intended to maximize equality and freedom, which none is measured well in the country after 16 years. The schism between the minority rich political elite and the common majority poor is sky high. By the mercy of clientelism and patronage networks, most of the donor funded developmental and non-developmental projects have been channeled to affiliates of these political elites. In which transparency, accountability and the quality of projects are still questionable.

In addition, worse than that, the Afghan bureaucratic positions were politicized and subsequently used for patronage purposes, therefore, even in a competitive circumstance, independent individuals can rarely find way to bureaucratic positions unless they bent over to political elites.

Dysfunctional civil society mindset

Gratitude is to both the international community and the Afghan government for setting and accepting the promise for the effective use of aids pledged in Brussels Conference on Afghanistan in October 2016. Redeeming of the promise depends on the Afghan government as Afghan president emphasized. Therefore, the National Unity Government initiated primary measures to achieve the commitments made during Brussels Conference. For this, Transparency International ranked the country at 169 out of 176, on its recent report released on January 25, 2017 which indicates a mild progress on anti-corruption compared to previous years.

In order to ensure transparency and accountability, no one can undermine the role played by civil society organization in a democratic society, but prior to strengthening the pillars of a strong legitimate state, empowering state limiting institutions with much intention and oversight power has seldom proved malformed and abandoned development. At last, neither the state nor the state limiting institutions flourished during the last sixteen years.

The US has focused and tried to establish strong civil society organizations that were assumed to limit the power of the fragile Afghan state crowded with erstwhile Jihadi warlords. More than one billion in aid from USAID funds was donated to civil society institutions during the last 15 years and still, goes on. Though it is an imperative, but from an Afghan perspective, it is better to channel these funds to elected bodies such as provincial councils and district councils which are due to be elected at sub-national level and some specific and well-known civil society organizations at the national level. As it is often said that the principle of effective government is the meritocracy; the principle of democracy is popular participation. By this, from one side the funds are spent effectively and on the other hand peoples’ participation will lead to transparency and accountability in line with constitutional mandates if civil society organizations work in line with these elected bodies. The outcome would have been an accountable and responsive government.

War? How long?

Corruption in security sector caused, not only, that ANSDF loses territory, but public trust day by day as well. Corruption, patronage culture and widespread injustices fuel militarism and are considered as the impetus of war in Afghanistan. The real price of the war is paid by blood, coffins, and tears of the Afghan public because the US policy makers rally on controversial political elites who do not shoulder the burden of this war rather benefit from it.

A US congress watchdog quoted Ryan Crocker former US ambassador to Afghanistan who has said, “The ultimate point of failure for our efforts… wasn’t an insurgency. It was the weight of endemic corruption,”. Afghans also believe that corruption within the ministry of national defense and home ministry undermines the combat effectiveness and it has maximized the death toll in Afghan National Security and Defense Forces during 2016.

As US President Ronald Reagan used to say during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s the battle for the human spirit. But the longest war on terror is no more a battle for human spirit rather a battle for self-defense. This defense will get even harder and longer unless the Afghans are not empowered well both politically and economically to save their country so it is not used again by terrorist networks. In order to actualize this, first of all, the US and allies should prefer not to backstop powerbrokers and patronage networks who politicizes the bureaucracy even the security sector.

A true and just fight is required to be fought on corruption and corrupt politicians. Strong measures are required to be taken to fight the injustices both in executive and judiciary system of the country which the US and allies can collate by rethinking their policy toward Afghanistan.

Democracies, exist and survive only because people want and are willing to fight for them. If the US government is to win this long and expensive war, a quick and overall policy revision is required. They have to stop supporting patronage networks, ask the Afghan government to reform the clientelistic political system and create modern, merit-based, technically competent and non-political bureaucracy.

*Nassir Ahmad Taraki lives in Kabul. He is a university lecturer and writes on current affairs. He can be followed on twitter @NassirTaraki

After Gambia’s Return To Democracy Is There Hope For Horn Of Africa? – Analysis

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After 22 years of authoritarian rule, Gambians are looking forward to a new era under their country’s first democratically elected president, Adama Barrow. On January 21, the strongman Yahya Jammeh bowed down to his political rival following weeks of diplomatic pressure and threats of military action from Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) troops. The departure of Jammeh, one of a dwindling number of West African leaders who have clung to power with no apparent limit, shows how Ecowas is playing a growing role in policing would-be dictators in the region.

But Ecowas is an outlier in Africa. Researchers doubt that its southern equivalent, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) or the African Union (AU) would have been able to muster the military consensus to take a forceful stance in other erring countries. Zimbabwe, the Democratic Republic of Congo, or Burundi are textbook examples of states whose autocratic leaders have stubbornly clung to power, facing down international opposition and regional threats. In the absence of such institutional arrangements, what is then the solution for other African countries seeking to break free from the yoke of tyranny?

A whole line-up of economists such as Bill Easterly, Dambisa Moyo, Angus Deaton, have argued that rather than helping poor people in developing nations, foreign aid has only further corrupted those countries’ governments, increased their reliance on foreign funds, and slowed growth. The crux of their argument is that much like the “resource curse,” foreign aid can sever the social contract between a government and its people. Governments with dependable streams of cash don’t need to rely on outside lenders or taxes to sustain themselves – which means they’re no longer accountable to creditors or, most importantly, to their own citizens. This means that world leaders that claim to defend democratic values ever want to see an end to Africa’s last enduring dictatorships, they must either cut off aid, or use it to extract concessions or promote reforms.

The Horn of Africa is a particularly unstable region. Unlike their more high-profile counterparts in the African Great Lakes area, the Horn’s dictators running amok in Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and have largely escaped the media glare. But a closer look at these countries shows how foreign aid has brought few lasting benefits to the public at large, and how it has even helped keep entrenched strongmen in power. In Ethiopia, the current government has held almost an complete grip on power since 1991. The state keeps tight restrictions on the media landscape, opposition parties, and civil society groups, using tactics like online surveillance, arbitrary arrests, and politically tinged prosecutions to silence critics. Foreign aid and economic growth have done little to boost those who live below the poverty line, who still make up 30% of Ethiopia’s population. Instead, the state wields development assistance, including access to seeds, fertilizer, jobs, healthcare, and humanitarian aid, to ensure that most citizens remain dependent on the government for their livelihoods and even their survival. Because so many of the country’s citizens, especially the poorest, are dependent on the government for all forms of aid, they have little choice but to continue to vote for the ruling party – or face potentially fatal consequences.

It’s hardly better in Djibouti, a barren speck of a country whose president, Ismail Omar Guelleh, has clung onto power for nearly 20 years. Guelleh is fresh off a humiliating legal defeat where he falsely alleged that a Dubai-based company, DP World, bribed a political opponent to win a contract to operate a container terminal in the country. The case is only the latest in a series of unsuccessful and costly attempts to silence the president’s critics. But world powers have turned a blind eye to Guelleh’s authoritarian tendencies because of what they stand to gain from Djibouti’s strategically located seaports and its participation in anti-piracy and anti-terrorism efforts. Eager to benefit from Djibouti’s prime position near hotspots in Africa and the Middle East, the US, France, China, and Japan have built military installations there and have channelled defence and development aid to the government. Meanwhile, the president has sat back and enjoyed his role as landlord, as billions of dollars’ worth of rent and aid pour in from Washington, Beijing, and other powers. Unfortunately for the people of Djibouti, who continue to struggle with low economic growth, high unemployment, water shortages, poor healthcare, and food insecurity, there is little to show for all that cash.

As for Eritrea, little information manages to escape one of Africa’s most reclusive regimes. In power since the country’s independence from Ethiopia in 1993, Isaias Afwerki has been ruling over his people with an iron hand. In terms of press freedom, Eritrea ranks below North Korea: all independent media sites have been closed and journalists critical of the regime are routinely rounded up. Afwerki is known for forcing his population into indefinite compulsory military conscription, which was labelled as “slavery” and “a crime against humanity” by a UN human rights committee. Talking about the regime, a member of the inquiry quipped “We seldom see human rights violations of the scope and scale as we see in Eritrea today”. In spite of this, the EU inked a deal to provide Eritrea with €200 million in aid in order to stem the inflow of refugees into Europe.

To be sure, this isn’t to say that the US and other donors should simply give up on efforts to address humanitarian crises. After all, foreign aid can certainly have a Band-Aid effect, at least in the short-term. But in the long-term, donors’ good intentions are just as likely to end up further entrenching problems of authoritarianism and lack of government accountability – the very problems that have exacerbated and prolonged issues of delayed development, fitful economic growth, and sustained poverty. Foreign donors should consider putting their money where their mouth is, and take a similar approach to the dictatorships that continue to hold sway on the other side of the continent.

India: Impending Visit Of Jordan’s King Abdullah – Analysis

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By Manjari Singh*

Described as preparatory to a state visit by King Abdullah II, the recent discussions between Fayez Tarawneh—Chief of the royal Court of Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan—and the Indian leaders reveal an interesting pattern. Breaking from normal protocol, Tarawneh met the Vice-President and Prime Minister and made a courtesy call on the President, thereby indicating the importance that both the countries attach to Jordan. Even more interesting was his meeting with former Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval.

Until two years ago, India’s security related engagements in the Middle East largely revolved around counter-terrorism cooperation with Israel and extradition of suspected terrorists from countries such as Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE). Since the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to UAE in August 2015, a different template is emerging in India’s engagements with the Middle East. Cooperation in a host of security issues such as terrorism, cyber security, terror finance, protection of sea lanes of communication, intelligence sharing and coordination in fighting extremism have been highlighted during Modi’s meetings with leaders of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Qatar. One can safely argue that security would be a major component in India’s engagements with Jordan and would be consecrated during the impending visit of King Abdullah.

This also indicates a paradigm shift in India’s perception of the Hashemite kingdom. Due to their different worldviews, bilateral engagements were minimal during the Cold War. While King Hussein visited in India in December 1963, Vice-President Zakir Hussein visited Jordan in May 1965 and offered prayers in Al-Aqsa Mosque, the third holiest shrine in Islam, when it was under Jordanian rule. An Indian state visit to the Kingdom, however, had to wait until October 2015 when President Pranab Mukherjee visited Jordan as well as Palestine and Israel. No Indian prime minister had ever visited Amman. Minimal trade ties (currently at about USD two billion) and absence of incentives such as energy security, expatriate labourers and remittances kept Jordanians from the Indian radar screen.

Two crucial politico-strategic developments have, however, pushed Jordan to the forefront. During his visit, President Mukherjee described the Hashemite Kingdom as an ‘oasis of peace’ and this was not an exaggeration. Since the outbreak of popular protests starting December 2010, a number of Arab countries have been in turmoil and political instability has become endemic in many countries. In some countries there was a regime change but countries like Libya, Syria and Yemen have plunged into civil war. The collapse of the state in Iraq and Syria was partly responsible for the onset of religious extremism and birth of the Islamic Caliphate or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or daesh as it is commonly referred to in the Arab world.

Since the birth of the Jordanian emirate in the 1920s, the Hashemites have been fighting various forms of extremism. If al-Qaeda was the enemy during the past decade, daesh has emerged as the new adversary. Some of the terror attacks in Jordan in recent months have been linked to ISIS and related radical Islamist groups. Partly due to fears of infiltration by ISIS elements, Jordan has regulated and even barred the entry of Syrian refugees into the country. While UN agencies like United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) have put the number of registered Syrian refugees at 657,000, Jordanian officials claim that the country is hosting more than a million (1.4 million) refugees.

Thus, fighting the ISIS it not a choice but a necessity and a survival imperative for Jordan. Indeed, before ascending the throne in June 1999, Abdullah was commanding the Jordanian Special Forces. Hence, unlike other leaders of the region, the Jordanian monarch has a professional understanding of the problems of militant extremism and its ramifications. Consequently, intelligence sharing, counter-terrorism cooperation and combating radicalism would be key areas of cooperation between India and Jordan in the coming years.

Secondly, like India, the Hashemites also have a delicate relationship with Israel and Palestine. Historically, geo-political compulsions and regional rivalry resulted in the Hashemites viewing Israel as a benign and friendlier power. Since the late 1940s, there were clandestine but close relations between the two leaderships. The June War of 1967, when Jordan lost the West Bank to Israel, was a notable exception to that bonhomie even though formal relations had to wait until the Oslo accords between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization headed by Yasser Arafat. The Israel-Jordan peace treaty concluded in 1994 grants the Hashemites special status over Islamic holy sites in Jerusalem.

At the same time, there is a substantial Palestinian population in Jordan including 2.2 million registered as refugees by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA). This segment of population often has a tremendous influence upon Jordanian choices. For example, partly due to domestic compulsions in 1990, King Hussein was compelled to side with Saddam Hussein when the Iraqi ruler annexed Kuwait. The Palestinian population is also more vocal in the internal opposition to full normalization of relations with Israel. In recent months, Amman has been part of a four-member Arab quartet (Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UAE being the other three) trying to mediate among different factions of Fatah for selecting Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s successor. Thus, Jordan purses a delicate policy vis-à-vis Israel and Palestine.

This Jordanian posture is not different form India’s, which too seeks to maintain its historic ties with the Palestinians amidst the emerging bonhomie with Israel. Since the normalization of relations with Israel in 1992, visits by Indian leaders to Israel have also included visits to Palestine. This practice was continued during the visit of President Mukherjee in October 2015 and of External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj in January 2016. During both visits, Indian leaders also visited Jordan. Thus, Jordan has emerged not only as a transit point of India’s engagements with Israel and Palestine but also as a potential bridge. This manifested clearly during the President’s visit when Mukherjee was able to underscore India’s traditional positions towards the Arab world more forcefully in Amman than in Ramallah or Jerusalem. Interestingly, in his earlier avatar, Tarawneh handled the Jordanian peace treaty with Israel.

Thus, increased security cooperation and the potential for cooperation in the Middle East peace process are likely to be the key areas of discussion during the impending visit of King Abdullah to India.

*Manjari Singh is a doctoral candidate and Ryoichi Sasakawa Young Leaders Fellowship Fund (SYLFF) Fellow at the Centre for West Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India. Originally published by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at http://idsa.in/idsacomments/the-impending-visit-of-jordan-king-abdullah_msingh_200317

FBI: Comey Statement Before House Permanent Select Committee On Intelligence

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HPSCI Hearing Titled Russian Active Measures Investigation

Mr. Chairman, Ranking Member Schiff, members of the committee, thank you for including me in today’s hearing. I’m honored to be here representing the people of the FBI.

I hope we have shown you through our actions and our words how much we at the FBI value your oversight of our work and how much we respect your responsibility to investigate those things that are important to the American people. Thank you for showing that both are being taken very seriously.

As you know, our practice is not to confirm the existence of ongoing investigations, especially those investigations that involve classified matters, but in unusual circumstances where it is in the public interest, it may be appropriate to do so as Justice Department policies recognize. This is one of those circumstances.

I have been authorized by the Department of Justice to confirm that the FBI, as part of our counterintelligence mission, is investigating the Russian government’s efforts to interfere in the 2016 presidential election, and that includes investigating the nature of any links between individuals associated with the Trump campaign and the Russian government and whether there was any coordination between the campaign and Russia’s efforts. As with any counterintelligence investigation, this will also include an assessment of whether any crimes were committed.

Because it is an open, ongoing investigation and is classified, I cannot say more about what we are doing and whose conduct we are examining. At the request of congressional leaders, we have taken the extraordinary step in coordination with the Department of Justice of briefing this Congress’ leaders, including the leaders of this committee, in a classified setting in detail about the investigation, but I can’t go into those details here.

I know that is extremely frustrating to some folks. But it is the way it has to be for reasons that I hope you and the American people can understand. The FBI is very careful in how we handle information about our cases and about the people we are investigating. We are also very careful about the way we handle information that may be of interest to our foreign adversaries. Both of those interests are at issue in a counterintelligence investigation. Please don’t draw any conclusions from the fact that I may not be able to comment on certain topics. I know speculating is part of human nature, but it really isn’t fair to draw conclusions simply because I say that I can’t comment.

Some folks may want to make comparisons to past instances where the Department of Justice and the FBI have spoken about the details of some investigations, but please keep in mind that those involved the details of completed investigations. Our ability to share details with the Congress and the American people is limited when those investigations are still open, which I hope makes sense. We need to protect people’s privacy. We need to make sure we don’t give other people clues as to where we’re going. We need to make sure that we don’t give information to our foreign adversaries about what we know or don’t know. We just cannot do our work well or fairly if we start talking about it while we’re doing it. So we will try very, very hard to avoid that, as we always do.

This work is very complex and there is no way for me to give you a timetable as to when it will be done. We approach this work in an open-minded, independent way and our expert investigators will conclude that work as quickly as they can, but they will always do it well no matter how long that takes. I can promise you, we will follow the facts wherever they lead. And I want to underscore something my friend Mike Rogers said—leaks of classified information are serious, serious federal crimes for a reason. They should be investigated and, where possible, prosecuted in a way that reflects that seriousness so that people understand it simply cannot be tolerated.

And I look forward to taking your questions.

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