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Uneasy Times Require Smart Thinking – OpEd

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There is no doubt that the rise of Daesh, which claims to be the new vanguard of the global jihadist movement, and the establishment of its caliphate in Syria and Iraq in the summer of 2014 represents a turning point in the evolution of global terrorism.

No time in recent history before has there been an outfit that has been so successful to confuse so many in such a short time. Daesh claims to be Islamic and a caliphate under its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Its flag even has the Islamic emblem – the testimony of faith. Thanks to the internet and its smart propagators, Daesh has been able to relay its messages throughout the world and gravitate many to its causes! Thousands flocked to its causes, some even joining the so-called caliphate from Europe, let alone from its neighboring countries with significant Muslim population. The imperative for the migration, or hijrah, to the caliphate was provided by al-Baghdadi’s proclamation in 2014 in which he reportedly said that ‘there is no life without jihad and there is no jihad without hijrah’ and moreover that ‘this life of jihad is not possible until you pack and move to the Khilafah [caliphate]’.

Baghdadi’s was an unprecedented call in this century. Thanks also to the quick wins in the battle fields in Iraq and Syria in its early years, Daesh could attract thousands of young people –male and female, hailing from many countries – to make the journey to join its ranks and take part in the consolidation and expansion of a project with global scope!

The call had an extraordinary impact on Western Europe: we are told that of the nearly 30,000 foreign fighters (FFs) that have travelled to the Middle East to join various organizations active in the region, including the Daesh, some 5,000 hail from Western European countries. No previous mobilization, whether linked to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s, or the genocidal campaigns against the Bosnian Muslims (by Christian Orthodox Serbians) and against the Chechen Muslims by the Russians in Chechnya in the 1990s, or the western war in Iraq in the 2000s, had had such a wide repercussion among young European Muslims. Of these FFs, some 10%, nearly 550, are women.

Elcano Royal Institute, established under the honorary presidency of the Prince of Asturias on 2 December 2001 as a forum for analysis and debate on international affairs and particularly on Spain’s international relations, has recently completed an analysis that looks at the women who are recruited to join DAESH in Spain: who they are, how they were radicalized and what their motivations and functions are within the groups, cells and networks in which they ultimately become involved.

Terrorist groups (e.g., Tamil Tigers) have historically recruited women for a plethora of reasons. The use of women in operational activities of a suicidal nature has proved to be a win-win strategy for the organizations, providing they are not arrested before achieving their goals: first it has been calculated that they are capable of causing up to four times as many victims as their male counterparts, given their greater ability to pass undetected, and secondly they attract much greater media coverage, owing both to their novelty (men are traditionally over-represented in terrorist organizations), and to the shock that is still felt upon seeing a woman commit violent acts, when they have traditionally and culturally been associated with peaceful values.

In the Spanish case, per the latest official figures, of the 208 individuals with Spanish nationality and/or residence in Spain that have decided to travel to the ‘caliphate’ since 2013, some 10% (21) are female. Additionally, another 23 women have been arrested and arraigned before the Audiencia Nacional within Spanish territory for their involvement in activities linked to Daesh. The average age of the women covered by this study is 24, seven years less than the average age of the men arrested for the same crimes: 31.3 years at the time of their arrest. Almost three quarters of the women (73.3%) were aged between 19 and 28 when arrested.

Less than a half, some 45%, are women who were single at the time of their arrest.
As to the nationality of the women arrested in Spain for connections to Daesh, in more than six out of every 10 cases (60.9%) they were Spanish – more than half, 56.5%, were born in Spanish national territory. Of women with Spanish nationality, 65.2% were resident in Spain and the offspring of immigrants, born essentially in the autonomous cities of Melilla (36.2%) and Ceuta (27.4%).

Another notable feature of the female contingent is that 13% are converts, lacking any manner of Muslim family, cultural or religious background, but who decided at a certain moment to adopt this faith as their own. It is a percentage similar to that observed among the men (11.1%).

The Elcano analysis also shows that the women arrested in Spain were better educated than their male counterparts: none of the arrested women were illiterate or lacking any type of compulsory education, which is however the case with 8.8% of the male detainees. 87.5% of the women –compared with 25.7% of the men – had obtained secondary education, and 6.3% had completed higher education. In fact, according to the available data, 26.7% of the women were students at the time of their arrest, as opposed to 4.8% of the men, although this variable could be affected by the fact that the women are generally younger than the men.

Another striking feature of the arrested women is the number who were unemployed, 33.3% of the total, 10 percentage points greater than the figure for unemployed men. In both cases, those in work were predominantly employed in the services sector.

Lastly, the Elcano analysis also point out that at the time of their arrest for activities related to Daesh none of the women had criminal records, whether for crimes related to terrorism or for ordinary infractions, something that by contrast is distinctly common among men, not only in Spain but elsewhere in Western Europe.

As the above statistics show, what Spain faced is a home-grown phenomenon. Many of the women who were radicalized or inclined to join Daesh were influenced by what they saw and read in the Internet. Some 61.5% women were inclined to join Daesh for reasons of an emotional or affective nature, including the promise of getting married to a fighter in the field, with whom they typically fell in love over the internet, or whose partner persuaded the women to become involved with them. Their intention was not so much to wage ‘jihad at home’ as to travel to the territory occupied by Daesh to join the project of the ‘caliphate’ under construction, but without getting involved in fighting. This also emerges from the fact that none of the women performed functions of an operational nature, nor had they been trained physically or in the use of weapons or explosives. In the case of the men, willingness to become involved as FFs predominated.

Other functions performed by the women arrested in Spain include recruiting and radicalizing other women (accounting for 45.5%) and spreading propaganda over social media and the internet (22.7%).

The women who have been arrested and arraigned before the Audiencia Nacional for their radical activities tend to be young and free of family responsibilities. While none of the young women was illiterate, the majority had only managed to complete secondary education and were indeed occupied as students –with various degrees of success– at the time of their arrest. A third of them were unemployed. None of the women had criminal records for terrorist crimes or any other sort of infraction, and therefore at the time of embarking upon investigations they were unknown to the police and judicial authorities.

In the Spanish case the involvement of women in Daesh is mainly related to the promise of a life in the ‘caliphate’, of an FF whom they hope to marry, or to the frustration of not being able to lead a life in keeping with their expectations in their place of residence. It is, however, a complex process in which other factors of various kinds play a part.

The Elcano analysis, like many other western analyses, however, fail to recommend prudent countermeasures or solutions required to tackle the home-grown nature of radicalization of its people. What should the western governments and societies do to save its young men/women from embracing toxic ideologies of nihilistic groups like the Daesh (or the so-called ISIS)? Even if they succeed in stopping the migration of the radicalized youth to Deash-held territories can they stop them from the process of self-radicalization or committing nihilistic acts inside the respective country where they live?

It is the economics, stupid, that often dictates how things end up. If these radicalized Muslims, converted or born, were employed and felt integrated in western Europe, in my opinion their embrace of nihilistic ideology would have disappeared very significantly. And yet, in places like France, even a 3rd generation French-born Muslim of North African descent often cannot find a decent job. [Discrimination against the people of north-African heritage is so high that it is simply mind-boggling for a country that gave the western notion of equality, liberty and fraternity! That is the rotting, ugly reality in Le Pen’s France! The French society, rather than integrating children and grand-children of those African immigrants, has created ghettos for them where they feel abandoned or ignored. The feeling of abandonment has led some to find alternative meanings of their very existence, sometimes embracing suicidal and anarchist ways.]

Instead of improving their social and economic conditions these western governments have spent money on policing and spying or embedding snitches for these ‘racial others’. Since 9/11 they have created a troop of informants (mostly from immigrants who had prior problems with the law) to spy upon and harass mostly the law-abiding decent Muslims who pray in the mosques. As studies after studies have shown most of the radicalized Muslims had little or no connection with mosques; they were self-radicalized via internet. All those government programs and money were ill-spent while danger came from others that were not in the radar screen.

A major problem with the Internet is that it is almost impossible to keep it inaccessible in a free society, esp. in this age of information superhighways. However, its deadly effect can be curtailed somewhat through good education and trust-building measures within a society where everyone feels valued despite being different racially or religiously. Failing on this major task would leave anyone who feels dissatisfied and angry, esp. a naïve or ill-educated/informed person, vulnerable to the toxic messages of the extremists – be they the far right, far left, secular, religious or fascists. The latter are promising many of the things that are denied to these confused youths or adults who see a glorious end to their otherwise worthless life.

Unless such serious issues are tackled with meaningful solutions we may never see the end of nihilistic attacks in the West. That is the billion, or who knows trillion, dollar question that our politicians need to answer.

As I have noted many times, the extremists and fascists need each other. The fascist leaders in many western societies, the likes of Le Pen, like to keep the current paradigm thriving for their selfish political gains, which allow them to recruit white supremacists and bigots to their flawed cause of dividing our world – ‘us’ against ‘them’. They are unwilling to smell the coffee and wake up to the fast-changing reality of the world that we live in today that is much different than the world their parents and grandparents grew up with. They fail to realize that our world has become a global village now and will continue to be so for a foreseeable future where political boundaries will not be able to define what or who we are.

Successful polities will be those who would understand this reality and be willing to embrace diversity as a source of strength by integrating all and giving them opportunities to better themselves and thereby the very society that they adopted or are willing to adopt. That means integration and not imposed assimilation, and surely not alienation. Something to ponder about!


Egypt’s Sisi In Riyadh To Mend Rift With Saudi Arabia

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Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi arrived in Riyadh on Sunday for talks with Saudi King Salman in a bid to end to an ongoing rift between Cairo and the Kingdom.

The visit comes in response to an invitation extended by King Salman earlier this month when the two leaders met on the sidelines of the Arab League Summit held in Jordan.

The two leaders will discuss ways to boost bilateral strategic ties as well as regional and international issues of joint interest.

This includes counter-terrorism issues according to a statement released by Egypt’s presidency late on Friday.

But the big issue between the two leaders – diplomatic sources told The New Arab – will be the ongoing rift between the two countries along with other regional issues.

Sisi and Saudi Defence Minister Mohammed bin Salman would discuss the situation in neighbouring Libya, the future of Egypt’s relations with Iran and military coordination in Yemen’s strategic Red Sea strait of Bab al-Mandeb.

They will also discuss investment opportunities pledged by Saudi Arabia to Egypt.

Top of the agenda, according to the same sources, is the issue of a maritime border demarcation deal signed during King Salman’s visit to Cairo in April last year.

Egypt agreed to hand over two strategic Red Sea islands to Saudi Arabia but this hasn’t gone as planned for either government.

Sisi insisted the islands are technically Saudi, but the agreement sparked the largest anti-government street demonstrations since the former general took office in 2014.

Many Egyptians were infuriated by the “betrayal” and described it as a sell-off to the kingdom.

Earlier this month, an Egyptian court voided a previous decision to block the transfer of the islands.

Two days later, Sisi assured US President Donald Trump that the deal will take place, a US-based Egyptian diplomat told The New Arab.

The controversy over the islands became a source of tension with Saudi Arabia, which has provided billions of dollars of aid to Egypt in the immediate aftermath of the 2013 military coup against former Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohammad Morsi.

Tensions have also emerged over other issues, including disagreements over Syria.

In October, Saudi Arabia abruptly suspended oil aid to Egypt just days after Cairo backed a UN Security Council resolution on Syria drafted by Bashar al-Assad’s ally Russia.

Saudi Arabia is a leading supporter of the Syrian opposition, while Egypt, fearful of Islamist militants among the rebels’ ranks, has pushed for a political solution keeping Assad in power.

King Salman has also sought closer ties with Turkey and Qatar, which have tense relations with Egypt.

Original article

Saudi Prince Khaled Bin Salman Named Ambassador To US

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By Joyce Karam

The appointment of Prince Khaled bin Salman as the new ambassador to Washington is seen by analysts and Saudi-watchers as a boost to US-Saudi relations, establishing a high-level and personal channel with the administration of President Donald Trump.

The move, announced on Saturday as part of a series of decrees by the Kingdom, makes Prince Khaled — King Salman’s son and an air force pilot who flew an F-15 in the campaign against Daesh — the new envoy to Washington at a time of improved relations with the US and increased diplomatic traffic between the two capitals.

Saudi sources told Arab News that the incoming ambassador has recently spent more time in Washington, and is familiar with the lay of the land following Trump’s election last November.

Fahad Nazer, a political consultant based in Washington, said the appointment of Prince Khaled to such an important diplomatic post is consistent with a pattern that King Salman established shortly after ascending the throne in 2015.

“This, like other key appointments, sends an encouraging message to the youth of Saudi Arabia that if you distinguish yourself in your chosen field and demonstrate your abilities, your hard work will be rewarded,” Nazer told Arab News.

“In today’s Saudi Arabia, being young is considered an asset, not a liability. Prince Khaled has already served with distinction in the Royal Saudi Air Force. He received part of his education in the US, including in Washington. There’s no doubt that he’ll bring energy and focus — two qualities for which he’s known — to this most important of diplomatic posts.”

Joseph Bahout, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Arab News that the appointment is notable because “this is the first time a Saudi king appoints his son as ambassador,” signaling a “desire by King Salman to have a direct, permanent and personalized link with the US government and probably the inner Trump circle.”

In that sense, Bahout said Prince Khaled represents an “intimate” channel between Riyadh and Washington.

Publicly, bringing a younger face and an air force pilot to the forefront of Saudi representation in Washington projects an “image of renewal and strong engagement aimed at gradually transforming the public image of the Kingdom in the US, something the Saudis have so far failed at,” said Bahout.

In the Trump era, “the age and familial links of the new envoy should also be a gate for him to access more directly the Trump inner circle, that of his family, sons, daughter, and more importantly the influential son-in-law (Jared Kushner).”

The decision is a “master play by the king on the domestic and diplomatic levels. It’s also a bold move, given it’s uncharacteristic and breaks with traditional image.”

The Stealthy Hezbollahzation Of Iraq – OpEd

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By Baria Alamuddin*

Experts disagree about the date when Hezbollah came into being. It emerged out of the shadows, and suddenly in 1983 was responsible for bombings that killed hundreds of peacekeeping forces in Beirut.

We Lebanese were similarly bemused by this entity that gained a stranglehold on our society. As the civil war ended, instead of demobilizing like other militias, Hezbollah expanded its activities, running schools, hospitals, universities — all the institutions of a fully-formed state. Considering how fragile the Lebanese state and army were, for many communities Hezbollah was the state, bankrolled by hundreds of millions of dollars of Iranian funds.

In our naivety, I and other Lebanese supported Hezbollah’s endeavors to push Israel out of Lebanon. We believed their platitudes about putting Lebanese interests first — until it was far too late. Hezbollah’s narrative of muqawamah (resistance) after decades of Lebanon’s weakness and divisions even gave us a bizarre sense of national pride. How wrong we were!

This scenario is repeating itself today in Iraq. The Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi umbrella movement of mostly Shiite paramilitaries has no intention of demobilizing after Daesh is defeated. Instead, it is comprehensively expanding its remit. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently described Al-Hashd as a “terrorist organization” and facilitator of “Iran’s Persian expansion policy.”

In universities, Al-Hashd sponsors activities, enlists students and holds military training camps. Institutions have been established in Sunni provinces for recruitment, indoctrination and expansion. Tens of Al-Hashd offices have reportedly been opened in Mosul before this Sunni-majority city has even been liberated. Intelligence headquarters have been set up, and Al-Hashd detention centers — where torture and killings are routine — are no secret.

Shiite religious institutions complain of being besieged by Tehran’s propaganda. Pro-Iran seminaries are awash with funds as thousands of young people are indoctrinated with Tehran-approved theology. There are sustained efforts to ensure that a pro-Iran cleric succeeds Iraqi Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani.

The Hashd Law failed to bring paramilitaries under the government’s command. Instead, this law makes them a permanent legal entity, receiving money and weapons openly from the state and clandestinely from Iran, thus further undermining the regular army. Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi says the right things to the West about demobilizing Al-Hashd, but he has just promised to increase expenditure on these militias.

We can only speculate how much cash was handed over in huge bags to Al-Hashd faction the Hezbollah Brigades last week to secure the freedom of 26 members of Qatar’s royal family, who were kidnapped by the group in late 2015 while hunting in central Iraq.

The fact that part of the Tehran-brokered deal involves population swaps in Syria, giving contiguous areas of Shiite-dominated territory near Lebanon’s border, illustrates the regional remit of these Al-Hashd entities.

Efforts are afoot to unite Shiite factions into an Al-Hashd list ahead of Iraqi elections, aspiring to become the largest bloc in the next Parliament, nominate the prime minister and monopolize lucrative and powerful departments. Former Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki has unashamedly embraced Al-Hashd as his route back to power.

Hezbollah had been Iran’s greatest achievement in exporting its revolution. Tehran is replicating this model in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, establishing proxy states-within-states whose tentacles reach into all domains of society. The Trump administration has vowed to prevent the Hezbollahzation of Yemen. This will require colossal efforts, yet the problem is exponentially more complicated in Iraq.

At a recent press conference, when Donald Trump was asked about Iranian proxies in Syria and Iraq, he did not know what the reporter was talking about. Can we hope for a considered Western response to Al-Hashd when the US president does not even know what it is?

While the world has been obsessing over North Korea and Syria, Al-Hashd has stayed out of the headlines. A Hashd University does not make for such sexy headlines as missile tests and chemical bombs, but the confrontational aspirations were glaringly transparent in a recent speech by Al-Hashd leader Qais Al-Khazali.

“There will be a strong and effective Hashd University, through which we could address our enemies and tell them, ‘If you fear us now, you must know that Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi is present in every university, college and department,’” he said.

Sectarian governance and war crimes by paramilitaries will drive Iraq toward renewed conflict. This year is perhaps Iraq’s last chance to be a unified entity. A sectarian and brutal regime will drive communities back into the arms of extremists and anti-state groups.

The Hezbollahzation of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen is proceeding at a terrifying rate, offering the prospect of a pro-Iran super-state — a Persian Empire — reaching the Mediterranean.

It is not enough for the US to warn that Iran has been “put on notice.” Right now in multiple countries, at all levels of society, thousands of institutions and entities are being transformed into bodies with a single purpose: To do Tehran’s bidding. If only we could hope that the response would be as sophisticated and strategic as Iran’s Machiavellian efforts toward regional hegemony.

The Lebanese and the rest of the world complacently failed to perceive the threat Hezbollah posed until it was too late. Will we make the same mistake again?

*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate, a foreign editor at Al-Hayat, and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

Soros Gets Warm Brussels Reception Amid Spat With Hungary

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By Georgi Gotev

(EurActiv) — European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and several Commissioners will meet US financier George Soros next Thursday (27 April) as part of consultations on a new Hungarian law that could close a university he funds, and of legislation targeting foreign-funded NGOs.

The Central European University (CEU) is at the heart of the latest dispute between Hungary and the European Commission in Brussels, which voices concern in many Western EU states that Budapest is infringing on rule of law and democratic standards.

Commission spokesperson Mina Andreeva said its First Vice-President Frans Timmermans and two other Commissioners will also meet Soros this week, after Brussels already threatened Hungary with legal action over rights issues and the Soros school.

On Monday, Timmermans will receive Michael Ignatieff, president and rector of CEU.

Timmermans recently said the draft law on the foreign funding of non-governmental organisations, which is expected to be approved by mid-May, was on the Commission’s radar.

Critics say the initiative is part of a wider crackdown on liberal democratic values by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán that seeks to stigmatise the organisations and their members.

The two other Commissioners who will receive Soros are Vĕra Jourová, responsible for justice, and Jyrki Katainen, responsible for growth, jobs, investment and competitiveness. Interestingly, no meeting is scheduled for Soros with Hungarian Commissioner Tibor Navracsics, incidentally responsible for education.

Andreeva was asked when the Commission would made public its own response to the “Stop Brussels” initiative of the Orbán government. Questionnaires titled “Let’s stop Brussels!” have been arriving in Hungarian letterboxes since 1 April, only days after leaders gathered in Rome to mark the EU’s 60th anniversary.

She said that as the Hungarians themselves were given some time to reply to the questionnaire, the tentative date for the reply is early May.

Design Banking: A New Era Of Financial Services

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Digitization, falling demand, fintech startups (e.g., the increasingly powerful PayPal)….The banking world is confronted by change — and threats to its traditions — on all sides. Experts believe that about 20 percent of banking revenues will be at risk in coming years.

But it doesn’t have to mean the end of the banking sector, conclude IESE’s Josemaria Siota and Thomas Klueter, together with co-authors Dieter Staib, Sam Taylor and Iñigo Ania from the Oliver Wyman consultancy. Design thinking — based on designers’ methods to match client needs with innovation in offerings — is set to change the way we bank forever.

Banks know that in a competitive industry, innovation is essential, and about 95 percent of the analyzed banks have rushed to create innovation labs. This trend has often meant thinking outside the box and hiring outsiders, such as designers and artists (more than 15,000 design-related jobs in financial services were posted in the United States in September 2016).

Design-led companies that are publicly listed in the U.S. are outperforming the benchmark S&P index by an eye-opening 211 percent. Many in the finance sector have already looked to design thinking for a solution to disruptive change. Even so, a recent survey in the financial sector found that 63 percent of those involved with innovation projects declared their dissatisfaction with the process. What is the difference between successful and unsuccessful cases?

Success Stories: From Australia to the U.S.

Design thinking, when properly implemented, has a proven track record. The co-authors note that Singapore’s OCBC Bank increased sales of a new investment product by 150 percent and also increased customer trust after developing and prototyping via design thinking. And Auckland Savings Bank reduced costs after moving to mobile, also via design thinking. Meanwhile, Bank of America increased online-banking registration by 45 percent after a user-centered redesign of its process, and Barclays PLC increased engagement through innovation, implementing 80 percent out of the 100,000 received comments from users to improve its mobile banking application.

What’s more, in a case study examined in detail in the report, the National Australian Bank successfully leveraged the techniques of design thinking to see themselves from their clients’ point of view. This led to the six-month, concept-to-launch creation of their QuickBiz loan, a new product to ease financing applications for small and medium-sized businesses.

How can these success stories be extended to the near two-thirds surveyed who were dissatisfied?

The Devil’s in the Details

Design thinking occurs where analysis meets intuition. In practice, it employs a deceptively simple five-step process:

  1. Empathize: The client is the be-all and end-all. Tools such as “Day in the Life Of” (DILO) allow teams to get into the heads of their customers.
  2. Define: The team reviews their information and homes in on the problem. They set specific goals.
  3. Ideate (i.e., form ideas): Potential solutions and other ideas are rapidly generated, often using techniques such as “bodystorming” (roleplaying) and “brainwriting” (recording all ideas that pass through an individual’s mind and relating them to the next person to trigger solution ideas).
  4. Prototype: The idea needs to get out there, fast, to start receiving feedback immediately.
  5. Test: Directly seeking feedback from the end-users.

So far, so clear. But the co-authors identify some common problems in the application of design thinking to financial services. They find that a loss of focus, lack of resources or undetailed definition of the problem to solve, among other factors, often undermine results and lead to unfulfilled expectations across the levels of the organization — leadership, team and individual. (See figure, below.)

Challenges Applying Design Thinking
Challenges Applying Design Thinking

Working through these problems one by one, the authors suggest three layers of solutions to make the process go more smoothly:

  • Leadership level: Ensure awareness and buy-in from those in leadership roles. Leaders need to know that output may not be scalable, or not immediately so. The definition of the problem needs to be clearly detailed, as does the scope of the exercise.
  • Team level: Keep the focus not on what customers say but on what they do. On a practical application side, design thinking needs to be structured, with frequent deadlines and constant feedback, to prevent its becoming an ongoing brainstorming exercise.
  • Individual level: Team members should be from diverse backgrounds and that means team facilitators should have a hybrid profile. To combat a loss of focus among participants, there should be few but clear rules.

A New Era

Innovation in banking is essential, yet factors such as digital disruption, increased regulatory demands and the post-crisis pinch make it anything but plain sailing. Meanwhile, customers are adamant that they need simpler and more personalized access to financial products.

Design thinking, with its customer-centered focus and constant prototyping, is uniquely placed to help banks maintain growth in the fintech era, and respond to clients’ spoken — and unspoken — needs.

Methodology, Very Briefly

Out of an initial pool of 47 banks, 17 from 11 countries were chosen to analyze in more depth, looking to public financial information, media reports, indexes and more. Then, eight groups of senior executives were observed over the course of a year applying design thinking to a management challenge. Several interviews and a literature review were also carried out.

Who Needs Dysfunction In The Balkans? – OpEd

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Foreign Affairs, a respected American foreign policy magazine, published in December 2016 an article under the title Dysfunction in the Balkans, written by Timothy Less. In this article the author offers his advice to the new American Administration, suggesting it to abandon the policy of support to the territorial integrity of the states created in the process of dissolution of the former Yugoslavia. Timothy Less advocates a total redesign of the existing state boundaries in the Balkans, on the basis of a dubious assumption that the multiethnic states in the Balkans (such as Bosnia-Herzegovina and Macedonia) are to be regarded as inherently dysfunctional, whereas the  ethnically homogenous states (such as Serbia, Albania and Croatia) are to be regarded as far more successful. Also, the author advances the claim that the peoples in the Balkans, having lost any enthusiasm for the multiethnic status quo, predominantly strive to finally accomplish the imagined monoethnic greater state projects – so-called Greater Serbia, Greater Croatia and Greater Albania.

According to Less’s design, the imagined Greater Serbia should embrace the existing Serb entity in Bosnia-Herzegovina (that is, 49% of the Bosnian territory), but also the entire internationally recognized Republic of Montenegro; the Greater Croatia should embrace a future Croatian entity in Bosnia-Herzegovina; the Greater Albania should embrace both Kosovo and the western part of Macedonia. All these territorial redesigns, claims Less, would eventually bring about a lasting peace and stability in the region.

Although Less pretends to act as a neutral observer who only promotes a rational, common-sense approach to the area portrayed as a source of irrationality, common sense first leads us to pose the question of his personal links to the Balkans whose geopolitical rearrangement he so zealously advocates. According to his official biographies, Timothy Less was the head of the British diplomatic office in Banja Luka, the capital of the Serb entity in Bosnia-Herzegovina. He was also the political secretary of the British Embassy in Skopje, Macedonia. Thus he served as a diplomat precisely in those two states which are, according to his proposal, the most likely candidates for dismemberment.

So the first question to ask is whether this diplomat, having served exactly in Banja Luka and Skopje, was directly involved in providing support to those very political forces, such as the Serbian and Albanian separatists, who are the most active participants in the projected dismemberment of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Macedonia and the realization of such greater state projects.  Mr. Less now runs a consulting agency called Nova Europa, which claims on its home page that it is “helping investors and international organizations to understand the impact of politics on their interests in Central Europe, the Balkans and the Former Soviet Union.” So, let us take a look at what this agency offers as advice to  potential clients interested in investing in Eastern Europe. Under the title “Political Risks in Eastern Europe”,Nova Europa provides the following list of risks:

 1. The Collapse of the European Union: There is a growing risk that the process of European integration will unravel, with far-reaching implications for economic and political stability in Eastern Europe;

2. The New Cold War: Russia and the West are engaged in a multi-dimensional conflict over the boundary between them which is destabilising regional politics and causing significant economic damage;

3. The Migrant Crisis: A wave of immigration from Africa and Asia into Eastern Europe poses a significant risk to civil order, governmental stability and the integrity of supply lines;

4. Economic Patriotism: There is a growing trend for governments to reassert national control over strategic sectors to enforce conformity with their political objectives;

5. State Capture and Corruption: Eastern Europe has a serious problem with corruption and the capture of the state by oligarchical elites, posing risks to the viability of investments and to political stability;

6. Civil Unrest: There is an elevated risk of strikes and demonstrations leading to institutional paralysis, a slowdown in economic activity, and breaches in supply lines;

7. Terrorism: There is an increased danger of terrorist attack, especially in the Balkans, linked to the rise and fall of Islamic State;

8. State Disintegration: There is a growing risk that multi-ethnic states in the Western Balkans will disintegrate, reigniting conflict in the region;

9. State Failure in Ukraine: Eastern Europe’s largest country is under severe political and economic stress, with negative consequences for much of the region;

10. The Arrival of China: China is becoming a major direct investor in Eastern Europe, diluting the political influence of the EU and US in the region, and exposing the region (to) a variety of long-term economic risks.

Such an exhaustive list of potential catastrophes was obviously written by a typical doomsday prophet intent not on encouraging but dissuading any possible investing, building up an atmosphere of overall paranoia around the region and within it. An artificially created shortage of investments may well result in destabilization. In this respect, Less’s post-diplomatic efforts clearly serve the purpose of orchestrated angst induction, targeting specifically the area of Eastern Europe and multi-ethnic and multi-religious societies within it, just as his diplomatic activity is likely to have served a similar purpose in the multi-ethnic societies of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Macedonia.

Of course, it is easy to claim that Timothy Less is now only a freelancer whose activity has nothing to do with his former employers’ policies. However, the problem is that certain radical circles within the British foreign policy establishment, in their numerous initiatives from 1990s onwards, have repeatedly advocated the very same ideas that can be found in his article, such as the creation of the imagined monoethnic greater states – Greater Serbia, Greater Croatia and Greater Albania – as an alleged path towards lasting stability in the Balkans, with Bosnia’s and Macedonia’s disappearance as a collateral damage.

Also, history books are full of references that these circles, ever since the appearance of their fundamental geopolitical doctrine, The Geographical Pivot of History by Halford Mackinder, perceive destabilization of the territorial belt between Germany and Russia as one of their primary geopolitical goals, which is exactly the territory (including the Balkans) whose destabilization Nova Europa seeks to induce. Therefore, it seems that Mr. Less has never interrupted his diplomatic career, having permanently served the very same radical diplomatic circles, either as an operative or as a spokesperson.

Just as the previous greater-state initiatives, his initiative relies on the assumption that the multiethnic states are the main impediments to stability in the Balkans.

Such a claim is rooted in the presupposition that, as long as the existing nationalist greater-state projects remain unaccomplished, the nationalist resentment will always generate ever-increasing instability. However, the history has clearly demonstrated, both in the Balkans and other parts of the world, that such a presupposition is nothing but a simple fallacy. For, the very concept of completed ethnonational states is a concept that has always led towards perpetual instability wherever applied, because such ethnonational territories cannot be created without projection of extreme coercion and violence over particular ‘inappropriate’ populations, including the activities which have become known as ethnic cleansing. The logic of ‘solving national issues’ through creation of ethnically cleansed greater states has always led towards permanent instability, never towards long-term stability.

What is particularly interesting when it comes to ‘solving national issues’ in the Balkans is the flexibility (i.e. arbitrariness) of the proposed and realized ‘solutions’. The winners in the World War I, among whom the aforementioned radical circles within the British foreign policy establishment played a major role, first advocated the creation of the common national state of the Southern Slavs (subsequently named Yugoslavia) at the Peace Conference in Versailles.

Then, more than seventy years later, a prominent member of these circles, Lord Carrington, chaired another international conference in The Hague where he oversaw the partition of that very state in the name of ‘solving national issues’ between ethnonational states which constituted it (since all of them, with the exception of Bosnia-Herzegovina, had already been defined as ethnonational states within the multinational federation).

Together with the Portuguese diplomat, Jose Cutileiro, Lord Carrington then also introduced the first, pre-war plan for ethnic partition of Bosnia-Herzegovina (the Carrington-Cutileiro Plan), again in the name of ‘solving national issues’ between the ethnic groups living in Bosnia-Herzegovina, which was eventually sealed, with some minor changes, at the international conference in Dayton. And now, here is yet another plan to make the Balkan states even more fragmented and powerless, again in order to ‘solve national issues’. What is needed in addition is yet another international conference to implement and verify such a plan, and thus turn the Balkans upside-down one more time.

Therefore it comes as no surprise that such a conference on the Western Balkans, according to diplomatic sources in the region, has already been scheduled for 2018 in London. Given its timing and content, the geopolitical manifesto published in Foreign Affairs looks like an announcement of the conference’s agenda. Yet, how the proposed dismemberment of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Macedonia, as well as the absorption of Montenegro into Greater Serbia, can be made politically acceptable to the population of the Balkans and the entire international community?

What is required to accomplish such a task is a scenario that would make an alternative to dismemberment and absorption of sovereign states even less acceptable. It is not difficult to imagine that only a war, or a threat of war, would be such an alternative. However, its feasibility is limited by the fact that no state in the Balkans has the capacities and resources – military, financial, or demographic – to wage a full-scale war, and their leaders are too aware of this to even try to actually launch it.

The alternative is to create an atmosphere that would simulate an immediate threat of war, by constantly raising nationalist tensions between, and within, the states in the region. Of course, such tensions do exist since 1990, but it would be necessary to accumulate them in a long-term campaign so as to create an illusion of imminence of regional war.

Significantly, simultaneously with the appearance of Less’s article, the tensions – first between Serbia and Kosovo, then between Serbia and Croatia, then within Bosnia-Herzegovina and Macedonia – have begun to rise. This growth of tensions can hardly be disregarded as accidental, given the fact that the Balkan leaders can easily be played one against another whenever they receive signals, no matter whether fake or true, that a new geopolitical reshuffle of the region is being reconsidered by major global players. Since they are already well-accustomed to raising inter-state and intra-state tensions as a means of their own political survival, it is very likely that they will be able to accumulate such tensions to such a level as to gradually generate a mirage of imminent regional war. A part of that campaign is also the systematic spread of rumours, all over Europe, that a war in the Balkans is inevitable and will certainly take place during 2017.

Under such circumstances, a radical geopolitical reconfiguration of the entire Balkans, including dismemberment of the existing states proclaimed as dysfunctional and their eventual absorption into the imagined greater states, may well become politically acceptable in all corners of the world.  All that is needed is to juxtapose this ‘peaceful’ option and the fabricated projection of imminent war as the only available alternatives, and offer to implement the former at a particular conference, such as the one scheduled for 2018 in London.

It does not matter that the option of real full-scale war is not available at all, due to the Balkan states’ incapacity to actually wage it; what is required for implementation of the proposed geopolitical rearrangement of the Balkans is to spread the perception that the permanent rise of political conflicts in the region inevitably leads to a renewed armed conflict. In that context, all the fallacies proposed in the article Dysfunction in the Balkans may easily acquire a degree of legitimacy, so as to be finally implemented and verified at the 2018 London conference on the Western Balkans.

Of course, if that happens, it can only lead to further resentment and lasting instability in the region and Eastern Europe, and that can only lead to growing instability in the entire Europe. One can only wonder, is that a desired ultimate outcome for those who promote greater state projects in the Balkans as an alleged path towards its stability?

About the author:
*Zlatko Hadžidedić
is Assistant Professor at the Sarajevo School of Science and Technology, Bosnia-Herzegovina. He received his PhD from the University of Sarajevo, Faculty of Political Science, his MPhil from the London School of Economics and Political Science and MA from the Central European University, Budapest. He served as political adviser to several Bosnian ministers and political leaders. His book Forced to be Free. The Paradoxes of Liberalism and Nationalism was published in 2012 by Deutscher Wissenschafts-Verlag (DWV).

How Islamic State Disseminates Propaganda Over The Internet – Analysis

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By Lorand Bodo, M.A. and Anne Speckhard, Ph.D.*

As ISIS is rapidly losing its territory in Syria and Iraq they continue to win on the digital battlefield, maintaining a strong recruiting presence in the digital space[1]. As ISIS cadres inspire and even direct terrorist attacks on different continents, the West must realize that it is long past due to mount a strong and resolute digital battle against ISIS—to stop them radicalizing and guiding the world’s terror plots from afar[2].

To fight terrorist propaganda on the Internet, social media companies, such as Twitter, Facebook and YouTube have all instituted take down policies[3] and teamed up with Microsoft to create a database of unique ‘fingerprints’ to automatically detect terrorist propaganda in the form of images and videos[4]. Additionally, Facebook has recently announced that it would develop Artificial Intelligence (AI) software to review content on their social network[5]. Likewise, Jigsaw—Google’s technology incubator and think tank—came up with a clever approach by utilizing the so-called ‘Redirect Method’[6]. That is, once certain keywords and phrases are typed into Google’s search box, links appear that redirect the user to content that is deemed as effectively countering ISIS’ propaganda[7]. Despite these efforts, however, ISIS still continues to successfully disseminate its propaganda on the internet.

A recent study did find a productivity drop of approximately 36 percent as in contrast to ISIS’ productivity height in the summer of 2015,[8] yet intelligence professionals credit ISIS with five new recruiting videos a week and there was a bump in ISIS propaganda following the London attacks[9]. Likewise, in two recent studies ICSVE research fellows located over the space of only a few hours over 50 English and 70 Albanian speaking ISIS endorsing, spreading and following Facebook accounts.[10] YouTube also continues to host for months at a time numerous ISIS promoting testimonies and videos as documented by a researcher following ISIS propaganda on YouTube.[11] Likewise, as ISIS has found it more difficult to operate in the non-encrypted space they have learned to coax their followers into the encrypted spaces of Telegram, WhatsApp etc. where they are further lead down the terrorist trajectory—encouraged to travel or stay at home to mount terror attacks.

It’s imperative to understand ISIS’s current social media and Internet-based dissemination process before we can judge the effectiveness of existing counter measures. To do so, we conducted a small study on the dissemination of ISIS propaganda on the Surface Web – that is the proportion of the World Wide Web, which is indexed and thus searchable with standard search engines such as Google, Bing, or Yahoo etc.[12]

Based on our previous Facebook research, we used hashtags, keywords and phrases in English and Arabic known to identify ISIS followers, endorsers and distributers on social media. Once again we quickly identified several social media accounts, websites and forums hosting ISIS propaganda. Most interestingly, however, we found that all these sources link back to a single source—what we call the ’Daily Harvester’.

The ‘Daily Harvester’ is a person or group of people that collects official ISIS propaganda, creates and shares a 40 to 80 page ‘daily briefing’ containing everything from pictures to videos to news bulletins. These summaries intend to ‘inform’ ISIS supporters on a daily basis by providing a summary of yesterday’s events, news and media releases. However, these daily briefings have also the potential to radicalize others as well as foster the existing belief system of already radicalized individuals.

Figure 1
Figure 1

In this case, the Daily Harvester is called Abu Abdellah Al-Ifriqi [أبو عبد الله الإفريقي][13] and even has created his own logo (see Figure 1). We assume that Abu Abddellah is an official ISIS representative.

We monitored Abu Abdellah for approximately one month (March 16 to April 16, 2017) to identify the key phases and tools he uses in the dissemination process (Figure 2).

Four distinct and consecutive phases emerged in observing his activities. First, the Daily Harvester monitors official ISIS media outlets, such as Amaq News Agency or Al-Hayat Media, for example. Second, he then collects published audios, documents, news, photos and videos and puts everything together into a single document. Third, he uploads the briefing onto only two websites – justpaste.it and addpost.it. These ‘paste-websites’ allow anyone to simply paste and publish content on the Surface Web by providing a unique link that can be shared. Finally, the harvester uses the generated link and shares it via social media platforms, forums and other websites to reach out to as many people as possible with a vast compendium of current ISIS propaganda.

Figure 2 (Created in Lucidchart)
Figure 2 (Created in Lucidchart)

Abu Abdellah is not the only Daily Harvester. Daily Harvesters are incredibly dangerous because they spread a huge quantity of ISIS propaganda at the click of a link, making it accessible to anyone. Put differently, anyone who knows how to use Google will be able to find these briefings and it’s a simple matter using Google Translator to read and view them in ones own language. For this reason, we need to take action against these simultaneous compilers and distributors of ISIS materials. If we don’t do that we will see repeats of what happened in London, Stockholm, Nice and Toronto, to name but just a few—as these attacks occurred as a result of Internet enticement into ISIS ranks and thinking.

There is no doubt that this will be an incredibly difficult task, however, based on our analysis, we recommend two strategies for the digital battlefield: First, we need to disrupt the dissemination process and second we need to counter their propaganda by pushing counter-narrative materials that will appeal to ISIS followers and endorsers into the digital spaces where they lurk and currently imbibe of ISIS poison.

Counter-narratives: Using emotionally evocative and strong counter-narrative materials, preferably that rely on ISIS insiders denouncing the group as ICSVE is producing in multiple languages—because we know that ISIS followers narrow their attention to listening only to ISIS insiders[14], we recommend using the same hashtags as used by the ‘Harvester’ to reach out to those who are looking for the daily briefings. Likewise, we recommend using justpaste.it and addpost.it to upload and publish counter-narratives as this would be appealing to those who regularly visit these websites to access the Harvester’s briefings.

Disruptive measures: We recommend the development and use of an automated and artificial intelligence based detection software for social media platforms, in particular Twitter and Facebook. This searches, amongst others, for three things: First, hashtags used by the Daily Harvester and secondly, links provided, such as justpaste.it and addpost.it. Abu Abdullah, the Daily Harvester we studied for example, uses only these two websites. Lastly, we discovered social media that accounts on Twitter and Facebook that disseminated the link, were not permanent and in fact, changed on a daily basis. Therefore, as a final point, we recommend integrating the age of an account as an important indicator for potentially being a disseminator.

Disrupting the link between the website that hosts the content and potential ‘customers’ is more effective than trying to directly take down the Harvesters themselves or the hosting websites. That is due to several reasons: first, Daily Harvesters can be easily replaced. Second, daily briefings can be published on millions of other websites; hence, tackling websites would result in a cat and mouse game. Third, Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, etc. are popular social media platforms and there are little to no alternatives in terms of reaching out to millions of people, which also implies that ISIS will continue to covertly and cleverly attempt to exploit these platforms.

Additionally, fake ‘daily briefings’ could also be uploaded to these sites following the Daily Harvester’s protocols with malware to enable law and intelligence forces to gather sensitive information on those who download the briefings.

ISIS is losing on the battlefield in Syria and Iraq, but is winning in the digital space – we need to adapt and fight back.

Reference for this Article: Lorand Bodo, M.A. & Anne Speckhard, Ph.D. (April 22, 2017) The Daily Harvester: How ISIS Disseminates Propaganda over the Internet Despite Counter-Measures and How to Fight Back. ICSVE Brief Reports. http://www.icsve.org/brief-reports/the-daily-harvester-how-isis-disseminates-propaganda-over-the-internet-despite-counter-measures-and-how-to-fight-back/

Source: This article was published at Modern Diplomacy

[1] McDowell-Smith, A., Speckhard, A., Yayla, A. S. (2017). Beating ISIS in the Digital Space. Focus Testing ISIS Defector Counter-Narratives with American College Students. Journal for Deradicalization, Spring 2017, No. 10, pp.50-76.

[2] Callimachi, R. (2017, Feb 4). Not ‘Lone Wolves’ After All: How ISIS Guides World’s Terror Plots From Afar. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/04/world/asia/isis-messaging-app-terror-plot.html

[3] Twitter (2016, Aug 18). An update on our efforts to combat violent extremism. Retrieved from https://blog.twitter.com/2016/an-update-on-our-efforts-to-combat-violent-extremism

[4] Associated Press (2016, Dec 5). Facebook, Microsoft, Twitter and YouTube team up to fight terrorist propaganda. Retrieved from http://www.latimes.com/business/technology/la-fi-tn-internet-terrorism-20161205-story.html

[5] BBC (2017, Feb 16). Facebook algorithms ‘will identify terrorists’. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-38992657

[6] Unknown Author (2017, Apr 17). The Redirect Method. Retrieved from https://redirectmethod.org/

[7] Greenberg, A. (2016, Jul 6). Google’s Clever Plan to Stop Aspiring ISIS Recruits. Retrieved from https://www.wired.com/2016/09/googles-clever-plan-stop-aspiring-isis-recruits/

[8] Winter, C. (2017, Mar 23). ICSR Insight: The ISIS Propaganda Decline. Retrieved from http://icsr.info/2017/03/icsr-insight-isis-propaganda-decline/

[9] Speckhard personal communication from Belgian Intelligence/OCAM, March 17, 2017

[10] Speckhard, A., Bodo, L., and Shajkovci, A. (under review). Fighting ISIS on Facebook-Breaking the ISIS Brand Counter-Narratives Project; Speckhard, A., Fazliu, H., Bodo, L., and Shajkovci, A. (under review). Bringing Down the Digital Caliphate-Breaking the ISIS Brand Counter-Narratives Intervention with Albanian Speaking Facebook Accounts.

[11] Mehdi Zograib personal communication to Anne Speckhard, March 11, 2017.

[12] Weimann, G. (2016). Going Dark: Terrorism on the Dark Web, in: Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Vol.39(3), pp.195-206.

[13] Thereafter referred to as ‘he’

[14] http://www.icsve.org/research-reports/beating-isis-in-the-digital-space-focus-testing-isis-defector-counter-narrative-videos-with-american-college-students/


Dropping ‘Mother Of All Bombs’ In Afghanistan A ‘Hoax Call’– OpEd

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If one peeps into the history of the US imposed wars, one point is clear that the establishment has been providing exaggerated and grossly incorrect reports to media. Ironically the ‘embedded journalists’, often working for mainstream media, have proved nothing but buffoons.

One of the recent examples is dropping of “Mother of All Bombs” in Afghanistan on April 13, 2017. All the details were made public about its code name, model number, weight, cost impact, etc, but hardly any details have been made public about the number of people killed and their identity, to the extent that no dead bodies were shown to media. It is also a fact that the media has not been allowed to visit the site.

Reportedly, US Defense Secretary James Mattis said that he did not intend to discuss damage estimates from the use of most powerful non-nuclear bomb. One has all the reasons to suspect that the Secretary is deliberating avoiding pinching questions being raised on social media. It is also suspected that even Pentagon does not have the evidence to share with the media.

The common grudge is that the US is unwilling to share information about the people killed, except to say these were nameless, faceless, cave-dwellers. One may also ask questions like who were these people and for how long there were living there. The nationalities of those killed also remain undeclared. The falling of the biggest bomb has been followed by a loud silence. The future of Afghanistan remains as uncertain as ever.

Reportedly, an Afghan official said that the bombing killed 96 militants, but provided no proof of the deaths or information on how officials reached the number of casualties. One wonders if Afghan or the US troops have made it to the bombing site. It has been reported that security forces are blocking both journalists and local residents from accessing the site.

The blast triggered shockwaves, which residents said they felt miles away. In all sincerity, Afghans in particular and the world in general with some conscience have a right to demand an end to the indiscriminate killing of Afghans. The terrorism waged by the US and its allies in the name of the ‘war on terror’ far outstrips the violence of those termed terrorists.

Iran Claims US Sanctions Violate International Law

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“These repeated acts for special political purposes of the US government, to impose unilateral sanctions, based on baseless claims of human rights infringement, against individuals or entities of independent countries explicitly violate the principles of the international law and the international human rights and are illegal and illegitimate,” asserted on Friday the spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Bahram Ghasemi.

He made the remarks after the US government added an Iranian organization and an Iranian judiciary official to the list of human rights sanctions of the US against Iran.

“The US government, due to its unacceptable domestic and international history, is not liable to comment on the human rights conditions in other countries,” highlighted the Iranian diplomat.

The spokesperson of Iran’s Foreign Ministry stressed that no international entity or organization has ever given such an authority to the US government to evaluate the conditions of human rights in other countries according to its own standpoint. He denounced the unilateral measures of the US describing them against UN resolutions and with negative consequences for individuals across the globe.

“The US government takes such interfering steps to cover up its own human rights problems and deviate the public opinion of the world from crimes and the support for systematic and obvious violation of human rights by its regional allies, especially the Zionist regime, which have a black report card on human rights,” reiterated Mr. Ghasemi

Syria: Putin One Of Most Popular Baby Names

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Syrian parents are naming their children after the Russian President as a sign of gratitude, while millions of students, including Bashar Assad’s own children, are learning Russian, Syria’s Ambassador to Moscow Riad Haddad said.

“Thanks to the efforts of the Moscow embassy, and with the approval of President Assad, Russian is the second language taught in Syrian schools. We have opened Russian faculties in all of the country’s universities, while children receive tuition from the seventh grade,” said the official, addressing Russia’s upper chamber of parliament, the Federation Council, in Moscow.

Russian was first put on the curriculum in government-controlled schools in 2014, and has been prioritized since then.

“Making Russian a second language in the country is a gesture of gratitude to the Russian people from Syria,” said Haddad, who has been in his post since the Syrian conflict broke out in 2011.

“Many families have even named their sons Putin. And it is no secret that the President’s own children are learning Russian,” said the official.

Although Russia has recently stepped up its support for the Syrian government, its strategic relationship with Damascus goes back to Soviet times, and many top Damascus officials, including Haddad himself, were educated in Russia, either as foreign students, or army officers.

Russia has maintained a naval base in Tartus since the 1970s, and though the diplomatic relationship between the two countries waned after the collapse of Communism, and the rollback of Moscow’s international reach, the base, alongside an aerial facility in Khmeimim, built in 2015, have played a key role in the conflict.

Meanwhile the tradition of naming children after leaders’ surnames and other ideological charged terms took root in the early Soviet Union, where names such as Vladlen (Vladimir Lenin) and Elem (Engels, Lenin, Marx) became popular.

There was widespread media coverage of Kosovar Albanians named Toni and Tonibler after the former UK Prime Minister who endorsed their statehood, but the fate of the children named George Bush after the US-led coalition toppled Saddam Hussein in Iraq remains under-documented, though there are several reports of children subsequently being renamed, as the former US president fell out of favor.

Christians Most Widely Targeted Religious Group In World

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By Matt Hadro

When it comes to religious persecution, Christians are the most widely targeted community, said a new report released this week.

But despite oppression and threat of violence, the faithful “should not be afraid,” said a Pakistani archbishop.

Pakistan’s Christians have made vital contributions to the country’s history and must not refrain from professing their faith in the midst of the current persecution, Archbishop Sebastian Shaw, OFM of Lahore, Pakistan.

“Even under discrimination or some violent actions,” Christians should take courage, he said, citing the words of Jesus that “people will hate you on account of My name.”

“You are not guilty, but because you are Christians and because you are following the Gospel values…being honest, being more responsible, being more dutiful, more charitable,” he said of Pakistan’s Christians, violence and harassment will follow.

Archbishop Shaw spoke with CNA at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. at the April 20 release of the new report “Under Caesar’s Sword.” The archbishop leads the largest Catholic diocese in Pakistan, with around 500,000 members.

“Under Caesar’s Sword” documents not only the persecution of Christians around the world, but how they choose to respond to persecution. “Christians are the most widely targeted religious community,” the report explained, “suffering terrible persecution globally.”

There are three common responses of Christian communities to violence or harassment, the report noted: “survival,” “strategies of association,” and “confrontation,” which is “the least common response.”

Survival would entail communities choosing to remain where they are in the face of persecution, as minorities have in Iraq and Syria, and either gathering covertly for worship as underground churches do in China, or maintaining a tenuous relationship with regimes in power.

Communities utilizing “association” would develop relationships with other non-governmental organizations or international bodies like the United Nations, or would strengthen their social ties in their country through social services or practicing forgiveness.

Examples of this course of action would be Coptic Christians and Muslims in Egypt, who acted to protect each other’s churches and mosques from vandalism and violence in 2011.

Another example was in 1996 when, “anticipating martyrdom, Christian de Chergé, leader of the ‘Tibhirine Monks’ of Algeria who were martyred in 1996 during the uprising, wrote a letter to his would-be killers, forgiving them and inviting them to a future of living together in freedom.”

“Christian responses to persecution are almost always nonviolent and, with very few exceptions, do not involve acts of terrorism,” the report stated.

Christians in Pakistan, Archbishop Shaw explained, helped build and unify the country when it was founded in 1947, especially through the health and social sectors and the educational institutions which formed some of the country’s present-day leaders, including the prime minister and the speaker of the National Assembly.

However, following the nationalization of the country’s schools in 1972, Pakistan became “more Islamized” and Christians were marginalized more and more, the archbishop said. They currently only make up around two percent of the country’s population.

Their marginalization includes infringements upon their rights and mob violence. Acts of terror against Christians have also increased, with a suicide bomber killing 72 and injuring 340 last year in an attack on a Christian celebration of Easter Sunday at a park in Lahore.

Additionally, anti-blasphemy laws have resulted in 40 persons on death row or serving life in prison, according to the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom. The laws, which do not require evidence for an accusation and which carry the harshest of penalties, have been used to harass Christians. Mob violence is utilized to pressure the government and the courts to issue or uphold harsh sentences for Christians for alleged crimes.

Asia Bibi, a Christian mother of five, was convicted in 2010 for alleged blasphemy but the country’s Supreme Court suspended her death sentence and her case is still in question, Archbishop Shaw said.

Today, Christians don’t count as a full person according to the country’s witnessing law, which requires the testimony of two Christian men to equal that of one Muslim man when witnessing to a crime. Women are also considered below men, as four Christian women would have to testify to count as a full witness.

New textbooks in schools have also circulated which contain “hate material,” the archbishop said, which prevents a “harmonious society” from growing.

Archbishop Shaw said he tells Christians “you were born in Pakistan, so God has a special purpose for you to be born in Pakistan,” saying their presence there is no accident.

Christians should not back away from the public square, he insisted, but should be “assertive enough to profess your faith in a very dignified way.”

He exhorted them “not to fight,” in response to violence, “but that does not mean that you let people kill you. You have to be courageous to approach people in a very assertive way to share your values in being human and being a Christian.”

Christians should seek to grow in knowledge of their faith and their “religious traditions,” he said, and should share their faith with others through interreligious dialogue. This last part is key, he said, because if Christians and Muslims can have a “roundtable” to learn each other’s religious values, then they can find common ground.

Some of the worst persecution of Christians occurs in countries where they are isolated and which are largely closed off to outside research, the report said, countries like North Korea, Eritrea, Somalia, and Yemen.

Christians worldwide should seek to implement these practices of dialogue, bridge-building with other members of society, and non-violence, the report said.

“The benefits of these strategies may seem short-term and modest, but from the standpoint of those persecuted, the strategies reflect a kind of divine logic, one rooted not only in hope for reward and fulfillment in the life to come but also in the conviction that should these communities remain true to their faith, there will come a day when the persecuting regime or militant group may pass away and the church spring up and branch out with vigor, as it has done so often in history before,” the report stated, citing the early Christians’ faith amidst the persecutions by the Roman Empire.

“Those who wish to act in solidarity with persecuted Christians can imitate their creative and faithful pragmatism,” the report concluded.

South Africa: Hindus To Perform Ancient Fire Ritual For Peace

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Hindus will reportedly light 108 fires as a part of ancient Vedic ritual yajna in a sports ground in Port Shepstone town of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa on “Freedom Day” (South Africa’s national day on April 27).

Yajna, an oblation made to a deity, is a Vedic ritual done in front of sacred fire with mantras; and is considered a conduit between universal and the individual and it activates that connection to maintain natural order for society/world.

This “Maha Yaj” in Marburg Sports Complex is hosted by Port Shepstone Hindu Cultural Federation together with other Hindu organizations. Various priests will participate in this yajna, which is planned to have 108 hawan kunds, reports suggest.

Meanwhile, Hindu statesman Rajan Zed, in a statement in Nevada, commended efforts of leaders of the Federation, other Hindu organizations and the area community for realizing this ancient Vedic ritual for the well-being of all.

Rajan Zed, who is President of Universal Society of Hinduism, further said that it was important to pass on Hindu spirituality, concepts and traditions to coming generations amidst so many distractions in the consumerist society and hoped that Federation and other area Hindu organizations would help in this direction. Zed stressed that instead of running after materialism; we should focus on inner search and realization of Self and work towards achieving moksh (liberation), which was the goal of Hinduism.

This free event is reportedly open to all where lunch will be served and hawan samagri will be provided free.  Guests include Dr. Rabbilas. Saths Singh is the chairperson of the Federation founded in 1992 “for the advancement of the Hindu community”.

Yajna is manifested in ancient Brahmanas and is based on the belief that all universal elements are interconnected.

Massacre In Afghanistan By Taliban: Lessons For Pakistan – OpEd

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After the USA dropped the “mother of all bombs” on ISI activists in Afhghanistan, the Taliban retaliated by killing over 140 unarmed Afghanistan soldiers, who were in the mosque or in the canteen. While Americans killed ISI activists by bombing, the Taliban have killed Afghan soldiers in return.

While it is difficult to argue as to which killing was right and which killing was wrong between Americans and Taliban, there cannot be any difference of opinion that terrorism has to be stopped at any cost. While many groups may have their own ideas and vision which they are entitled to have , killing innocent people to establish their presence and strength is an unacceptable and barbaric practice.

The terrorist attacks in Afghanistan and Kashmir, Pakistan has been accused of giving space to such elements on it’s soil. The latest is that US media reports have said that Pakistan is giving protection to some Egypt born terrorist in Pakistan. Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence Agency have been accused of giving such protection.

Pakistan does not seem to realize that by giving protection to terrorist groups on it’s soil, Pakistan itself has become target of terrorist attacks. In recent times, Pakistan has been one of the countries where maximum number of people including innocent women and children have lost their lives due to terrorist attacks. Whenever such attacks happen, Pakistan government and it’s army have said that it would fight against terrorists and eliminate them at any cost but this has not been happening.

India is repeatedly complaining that Pakistan is enabling infiltrators from Pakistan to enter into Kashmir and cause disruption and violence. As a matter of fact, the Pakistan government itself has said on several occasions that it supports the secessionists in Kashmir and several resolutions have been passed by the Pakistan parliament encouraging the terrorism in Kashmir. It is surprising that Pakistan seem to be failing to realize that it cannot encourage terrorism in another country, while fighting against the terrorists in it’s own soil.

In the last few decades, Pakistan has lost huge opportunities to move on in the path of progress, by preoccupying itself with pledged hatred against India. With the weak economy, it has been spending huge money in building and maintaining its military base.

In the recent past, Pakistan has been building significant level of industrial and economic relationship with China and allowing China to build economic corridor in Pakistan , which would make Pakistan’s economy go under total control of Chinese government before long. Of course, Pakistan is entitled to have its own plans for progress by collaborating with China. However, considering China’s territorial ambitions, many people seem to think that Pakistan is taking a calculated risk in opening it’s door to economic domination by China , where Pakistan is an unequal partner.

Perhaps, Pakistan is resorting to make it’s economy and industry to move very close to China, since it thinks that such relationship with China would enable Pakistan to continue to have spiteful relationship with India. Obviously, these are counter productive strategies.

Even the presence of terrorist groups in Pakistan may largely be due to its hatred against India.

The terrorist elements in Pakistan seem to be targeting the Chinese investments and Chinese workers in Pakistan also and Pakistan has to give massive protection to the Chinese in Pakistan now.

The recent attack in Afghanistan by Taliban have made many US agencies suspect that such elements are occupying Pakistan base and Pakistan is unable to or unwilling to control them for whatever reasons.

The attack on Afghanistan by Taliban cannot but be viewed by the observers around the world without linking “the unwilling role” of Pakistan.

Obama And Clinton Brought Slavery To Libya – OpEd

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Nearly every day there is a new report of desperate migrants rescued at sea in the Mediterranean. Some are less fortunate and are among the estimated 12,000 who have died there in the last three years alone. Their point of embarkation is Libya, a nation now a haven for human traffickers because of President Barack Obama and his secretary of state, Hillary Clinton.

Their deliberate destruction of Libya was a war crime by all standards of international law. That country was just one victim of the American plan to eliminate secular governments in the Middle East. Under the guise of a phony “responsibility to protect” and with cover from organizations such as Human Rights Watch, American propaganda gave an atrocity the appearance of a humanitarian act. Now come reports from media and the International Organization for Migration that African migrants are being openly bought and sold in Libya. This practice would not be taking place if Muammar Gaddafi not been murdered by American backed jihadists in 2011.

Obama’s evil success in Libya set off an endless trail of disasters. Libya is a hot bed of ISIS activity along with Iraq and Syria. It is not a coincidence that all three countries were targets of American regime change. Even the American ambassador in Libya fell victim to his government’s machinations in Benghazi.

Obama and Clinton hoped to continue their victory in Syria, but president Assad was stronger than they anticipated. When the Russians proved to be fickle allies who were willing to push Assad under the proverbial bus, Obama and Clinton wouldn’t take yes for an answer. They insisted that Assad had to go and they didn’t care how many Syrians they killed or turned into refugees in the process. Now the bloodshed continues under a new administration.

European countries struggle to contend with the flow of people from Syria and Libya who would be in their homelands were it not for America’s designs on that part of the world. Yet the corporate media say nothing. They may report on the refugee crisis and the migrant crisis without ever stating what is easily provable, that the United States is entirely responsible for the suffering.

There can be no plan for reviving the peace movement that doesn’t include a reckoning of responsibility for the disasters that Obama and Clinton brought to the world. “We came, we saw, he died,” is one of the more memorable Hillary Clinton statements, memorable for all the wrong reasons. Obama knew better than to be so crass, but he privately called Libya a “shit show” as if he were a bystander and not the perpetrator.

While the corporate media make hay out of very dubious evidence of atrocities allegedly committed by the Syrian government, the atrocities caused directly by the American government go unmentioned. Or rather they are reported absent of any context of American responsibility.

Even press reports of slave trading in Libya follow the same proscribed language. They will say that Gaddafi was an autocrat and a dictator, but omit that the humanitarian disaster was carried out by the United States, NATO, and Gulf monarchs. The dismemberment of Libya is one of many crimes that are conveniently shoved down the memory hole.

Now we see the supreme and awful irony. America’s first black president is responsible for slavery taking place in a once prosperous African country and his role is covered up by people who once would have condemned his actions.

Black people defended Muammar Gaddafi if no one else did. American presidents made a show of castigating Gaddafi, calling him crazed, fanatical, dictatorial and mentally ill. Black Americans were unanimous in their support whenever he was attacked, whether militarily or even rhetorically. But that support ended when he fell under Obama’s cross hairs. Barack Obama’s ascendancy to the presidency was a curse on black America’s political heritage.

That curse is unlikely to be lifted anytime soon. There was never a great willingness to point out his wrong doing, and now that the despised Trump is president the selective amnesia grows worse.

The corporate media do not fulfill their most basic obligations. They repeat lies if they are told by people they decide to protect. They hide the truth if it is told by the people they decide to disappear from discourse and from history. But that dissembling should not silence people who put themselves in the anti-war camp. When they read or hear about refugees and migrants dying or being sold as slaves they must state loudly and clearly that Obama and Clinton are the villains in the story.


In Europe, The Shifting Sands Of 2017 – Analysis

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Elections across Europe will need to produce a new generation of leaders if its remapping is to be prevented.

By Rakesh Sood*

The Palazzo dei Conservatori at the Piazza del Campidoglio in Rome is certainly an impressive setting to celebrate a sixtieth birthday. Yet, for the 27 European Union (EU) leaders and the presidents of the European Council, the European Commission, the European Parliament, the European Council of Ministers, the European Central Bank and the Eurozone Finance Ministers who came together on 25 March to celebrate the founding of the EEC (European Economic Community) exactly 60 years ago, the mood was sombre. The strains of Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy”, the European anthem, failed to lighten it. There were more questions than answers; in fact questions posed by those not at the party.

British Prime Minister Theresa May had not been invited and was probably signing the formal letter invoking Brexit; two months earlier, US President Donald Trump in an interview had predicted the breakup of the EU, though a month later he attempted a course correction but still praised the UK for taking a “smart decision”; there was also Russian President Vladimir Putin’s increasing questioning of ‘liberal democracy’ and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s indications that Turkey may no longer be interested in pursuing its EU membership!

EEC to EU

From a homogenous group of six countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands) in 1957 that formed the EEC, today’s EU has 28 member countries. A milestone was the 1992 Maastricht Treaty which replaced the Community with the more ambitious EU and cleared the way for the introduction of the euro in 1999. Along the way, the EU was awarded the Nobel Peace prize in 2012.

Over the years, multiple European groupings have emerged, with overlapping memberships. The Eurozone consists of 19 out of the 28 members; the 31-member European Economic Area has the EU 28 together with Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway; Schengen membership stands at 26 while NATO has over 20 European members. From being a cohesive whole, Europe is suddenly looking more fragmented. In 1957, the European experiment had been based on convergence and each time it faced a challenge, the clear solution was ‘more Europe’. Today, the new answers are being described as ‘a Europe at different speeds’ or ‘Europe with a variable geometry’ which struggles to accommodate the inevitable divergences among the increasingly heterogeneous 28 members.

From 1957 to 1992, the European experiment was a customs union leading to a common market. Cohesiveness was ensured by a commitment to democracy (by definition also ‘liberal’ because the idea of ‘illiberal democracy’ had not surfaced) with security outsourced to NATO and the US. The reunification of Germany, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the introduction of the euro during the 1990s led to the EU entering uncharted political territory with the Maastricht Treaty. Ideas of a Common Foreign and Security Policy and a Common Security and Defence Policy emerged and with that came the creation of the position of the High Representative of the EU in 1999. Henry Kissinger had famously remarked: Who do I call if I want to call Europe? There was now a number but the EU High Representative’s has remained a vexing and often frustrating job with major member states preferring to maintain and manage their own foreign and defence policies.

With the continuing economic strains posed by the 2008 economic crisis, political pressures generated by a more assertive Russia under Mr. Putin, the growth of jihadi extremism globally and radicalisation of Muslim minorities in Europe, and the migration challenge catalysed by Western interventions in Libya and now Syria, the balance between the political and economic compacts in Europe has begun to fray. Ageing populations and disruptive technologies add to the complexity.

European Parliament members, though elected directly, have been singularly unsuccessful in convincing their constituencies of the virtues of the European project. Meanwhile, national politics has seen a resurgence of nationalism. An anti-immigrant sentiment has taken hold, elites stand discredited and populism has pushed countries away from regionalism and globalisation. Sentiment has turned against the EU and its institutions and therefore ‘more Europe’ is no longer the acceptable answer. Brexit was just the first warning sign in 2016.

A crucial French election

Now, 2017 is a crucial year with elections in key European states. Last month, there was a palpable sense of relief when the Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte managed to keep his liberal party, VVD (The People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy), in the lead in the national elections, despite a slide from 41 seats to 33, in a House of 150. In contrast, Geert Wilders of the PVV (Party for Freedom) managed to improve his standing from 15 to 20 on an anti-European, anti-Muslim platform. There had been real concern that Mr. Wilders would ride the Brexit-Trump anti-establishment wave. Many believe that Mr. Rutte’s hardline in banning Turkish Ministers to campaign among the Turkish community for the Turkish referendum on 16 April helped him get a second wind.

Later this year, elections are due in France and Germany, followed by Italy and Sweden in 2018. Of these, the French election is the most crucial where Marine Le Pen of the National Front and Emmanuel Macron appear to have cleared the first round on April 23 in a closely contested two-stage election. Republican candidate François Fillon’s campaign faltered since disclosures that he had paid large sums to his wife from public funds for ‘working’ as his Parliamentary Secretary. This is not an uncommon practice among French politicians but since Mr. Fillon had campaigned as Mr. Clean, his image took a hit and his ratings plummeted from 30% to 20%. His loss has been Emmanuel Macron’s gain.

A 39-year-old former investment banker with Rothschild, Mr. Macron joined President Hollande’s cabinet for two years as the Economy and Industry Minister before quitting last summer to launch his own political party, En Marche (On the Move). He is seen as pro-business, pro-Europe and a social liberal. At present, he is running neck and neck in the opinion polls with Ms. Le Pen, who is expected to engage in sharper personal attacks on Mr. Macron in the run up to the final round on May 7. For Ms. Le Pen and her support base, Mr. Macron is the perfect target, part of the global elite, more at home with bankers and business leaders and disconnected with the workers and farmers. A Le Pen victory would push the EU into a mortal crisis as she has promised to quit the Schengen regime and take France out of the euro. Mr. Macron’s challenge is that he is seen as a political neophyte with a political party that is less than a year old when the country is gripped with self doubt, insecurity and uncertainty!

Elections in Europe

In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel will be seeking a fourth term in September. Though currently in the lead, she faces a strong challenger in Social Democrat candidate Martin Schulz. The disruptor however is the new AfD (Alternative for Germany) led by Frauke Petry who describes herself as a ‘nationalist conservative’. AfD was set up in 2013 and since then has gained representation in 10 out of 16 state parliaments. Ms. Petry is a Eurosceptic and seeks to reassert German identity while being anti-Islam and denying climate change.

Normally, Italian elections should take place in early 2018 but following Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s stepping down earlier, these could be brought forward. The populist leader of the Five Star Movement, Beppe Grillo, is also pushing for early elections as his party is currently neck and neck with Mr. Renzi’s Democratic Party in the opinion polls with a near 30% rating. Together with two anti-Europe groups — Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and Matteo Salvini’s Lega Nord — the Eurosceptic lobby crosses 55%. This is hardly surprising given that Italy has not seen any growth in per capita GDP since the euro was established in 1999.

Sweden, which will go to the polls next year, is also facing the ‘nationalist Eurosceptic’ malaise. Sweden Democrats, led by Jimmie Akesson entered parliament for the first time in 2010 and by 2014, had emerged as the third largest party with 13% of the popular vote on the anti-immigrant and right wing populist platform.

Whither EU

Meanwhile Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán extols the virtues of ‘illiberal democracy’ and Turkey has lost interest in pursuing EU membership. EU’s deal with Turkey, a year ago to curb the Syrian refugee influx, has been holding but European criticism of Mr. Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian moves has led him to threaten retaliation and he could well reopen the tap, causing another migration crisis in an uncertain year.

Mr. Trump has already asked NATO’s European members to hike their defence budgets to the long promised target of 2% of their GDP, currently met by Poland and the UK. At present, this is unlikely and only exposes fault lines that Mr. Putin will be glad to exploit.

Today, analysts agree that the expansion of both the EU and the Eurozone in the last decade was too rapid but the clock cannot be turned back. Creating exceptions to keep the experiment going merely creates an illusion of unity. The 2017 elections will need to produce a new generation of European leaders like Jean Monnet and Robert Schuman if a remapping of Europe is to be prevented.

This article originally appeared in The Hindu.

World As Global Sin: The Neverending Story – Essay

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The world has become exactly the same today as it was for the former Yugoslavia back in 1990! How has this happened?

First – Unity, Brotherhood, Peace, Development and Second – Populism, exclusiveness, nationalism raising and establishment of chauvinism led to the point that the World is now on the edge of a new Big War, just as it was for the former Yugoslavia back in 1990.

So, let’s go step-by-step:

1. What is the difference between this (and there is more from where this came from) back at the end of eighties in former Yugoslavia, and this that is happening now in France  or this in the USA in 2017? There is no difference and you have, on both sides the persons who lead people towards the edge of civilization – and will push it further.

2. What is the difference between these good old days in former Yugoslavia and these good old days within the European Union back in the eighties of 20th Century? There are no differences, and you have on both sides people heading towards the light of better living and working together for the common good.

So, even today Sweden, Finland and/or Norway are using a similar social welfare system that was in former Yugoslavia. At the same time, rising nationalism is claiming in the EU in the exact same way as it was in Yugoslavia prior to the “agreed” war between former Yugoslavia Republics. So, are we going to have an “agreed” war within the European Union very soon, as well? To shape a little bit the Union and clean it out of immigrants, even of second and third generation immigrants that are living in the UK, France, Belgium, Germany…?

The solution is just behind the corner, although our blindness cannot see it. Why? Because we do not respect (as Yugoslavia did not in 1990) the following:

1. The knowledge (people like Donald Trump and/or Marie Le Pen and/or Vladimir Putin wouldn’t be able to manipulate with so many humans around the world, only if, only…if the knowledge was heading towards the increasing of the media and the political literacy of the humans, in general. People would be able to read through them (that political scam) and not with them.

2. The beauties of diversity and that God have made us different, although at the same time similar to him, regardless our color, race and/or gender. Respect towards diversity is the only way out from this mud water in which we are almost up to the neck in 2017.

3. The establishment of the United Nations as the real watcher of the World peace and prosperity and not as the executioner of the will of the strongest nation(s). How? Equal rights and equal responsibility for everyone, now and today. You can call me a dreamer, but I am not the only one.

Of course, if there is a will, there is a way. But, how to do it, within such a polarized world of inequality and hatred, which is the main fuel of “my” existence, “my” survival and “my” nation(s)?

Take, for an example the question I raised within my lectures that I held in October 2016 in Poland and in March of 2017 in Lithuania, and it is: Why have those bastards from ISIS never attacked Israel since the beginning of their establishment as the so-called “Islamic state….”? Israel is on their borders, but has never being attacked by them. Conspiracy theory does not exist, but it works, I wrote a long time ago. Still works, and end especially if we watch:

a) This

Or…

b) That

Simplicity is the mother of success – the establishment of a coordination body that consists of:

1. Independent, free spirit scientists and intellectuals who are not conformists and beholden to the politicians.

2. Religious leaders who are willing to cooperate and not to exclude somebody just because he/she is of different religion.

3. Economists who are focused on the benefit of 98% of the Earth’s population and not those who take care of the 2%.

After that, focus on the main 10 points that have to be done within the first six months, than another 10 points for the next 6 months, analyzing and adjusting the good and bad that has been done within the previous 6 months, and on, and on…for the first 5 years.

At the same time, using the free media, social media, independent media and proper advertising campaigns, explain, or at least try, to the world that the only solution is:

a) Joint living and development

b) Coordination of the diversities

c) Improvement of the existing point of living

Yes, you can call me a dreamer, but I am not the only one. As the person who lived through the collapse of the former Yugoslavia, I clearly see the same collapse of the European Union and the World. Populism and/or any kind of nationalism/chauvinism has not ever brought any good to anybody in the world – just only for a few. Especially, when “they” are using illiterate, non-educated and easily manipulated people to gain their benefits, as I asked a journalist at the end of a TV show (Cable TV HEMA, Sarajevo, BiH) where I was the only guest for an hour talking about different issues, back in 2012 (five years ago):

The conversation went like this:

SH: May I ask you just two questions, after answering on your questions for almost an hour, respectable colleague?

Journalist: Yes, you may.

SH: Is that right that when you are believer that means honesty, trust, brotherhood and respect to other and different ones?

Journalist: Yes.

SH: Why then we have so many believers today and in the same time so many thieves and with corruption encircled people in the same time?

The journalist didn’t answer. She just watched me. Her silence was the answer having in mind that in the former Yugoslavia, among 20 million people there were 14 million communists and today, within the area of the former Yugoslavia we have just opposite – 14 million believers. But are they?

So, with the World is the same. It does not matter if you are left and/or right. The only thing that matters is if it is good for all of us in general and not just for the few, regardless if we are living in capitalist and/or socialist society.

This Neverending story might end in a good way only if…only if we really become honest and respectful to others and those who are different from us. Everything can be fixed. For the benefit of all, finally. I am not asking for too much. Am I?

Turkey Is On The Verge Of A New Age – OpEd

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According to unofficial results, with a turnout rate over 85% and a 51.4% vote share, the Turkish people voted “yes” for the new constitution in the referendum held on Sunday April 16. With this result, the amendments to 18 articles of the current constitution were approved.

Some of the important amendments are as follows:

  • Removal of the current parliamentary system and the introduction of the “Party-Affiliated Presidency” system and removal of the office of the Prime Minister.
  • The President is given the title “Head of State” and is given extensive authorities, including executive authority.
  • Parliamentary and Presidential elections will be held every five years instead of four.
  • The age to stand for office is lowered to 18 from the current 25.
  • New regulations on the structure and assignments of the Supreme Council of Judges and Prosecutors.

During the referendum process, the biggest debate was on the widespread concern over the fact that the new constitution could cause a nationwide risk of division in the future by paving the way for a federal system in Turkey. President Erdogan and Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım often made statements pointing out that such concerns are irrelevant and no one can attempt to dismantle the unity and integrity of the country. However, after the increased criticisms indicating that a mere verbal assurance was not enough, the articles carrying the risk of division were revised and overhauled.

One of the biggest surprises of this process was that the MHP, one of the most adamant opponents of the AKP, supported the ruling party. Thus, the new Constitution was approved by the Parliament by achieving the necessary vote majority thanks to the MHP’s support.

Since the April 16 referendum was ultimately a vote for constitutional and systemic change, it would not be an accurate assessment to dedicate the results to the ruling or the opposition party, or personally to Erdogan. On the other hand, we shouldn’t ignore some important factors that contributed to the distribution of votes in the campaign process.

For example, many voters who were indecisive or even initially determined to vote “no”, gravitated towards “yes” as a reaction to the rallying of certain circles, who are radically against the texture of Turkish society, their standards of judgment and national sensitivities, around the slogan “no”.

The most important ones among these circles, who were despised by the great majority of the Turkish population, are: A number of communist organizations, members of the PKK terrorist organization, homosexual support groups, members and the supporters of the terrorist organization FETO, a number of traitors who revealed state secrets to the media, fled abroad and still cooperate with various Western governments, some artists, journalists and writers who, at every opportunity, complain about Turkey to foreign countries and institutions.

Moreover, the persistent “no” campaigns of the mainstream media groups, think tanks and NGOs and their especially appointed writers and propagandists operating under the Western umbrella have also caused serious deviations towards “yes”, because these circles are famous for their unjust attacks, hatred and humiliation campaigns directed towards Turkey, Muslims and elected legitimate government and politicians in Turkey for years.

Assuming the role of apostle of democracy at every opportunity, as a matter of fact these circles have maintained their usual policies rather than respecting the democratic decision of the people at the end of the referendum: For example, in an article published after the referendum by Foreign Affairs, the media outlet of the Britain-driven CFR think tank of the US, it is emphasized that Turkey is headed into division by comparing the results to the darkness before the midnight.

The article titled “Analysis of Turkey” by Steven A. Cook of Foreign Policy, included the accusations that the results of the referendum closed a chapter of the modern history of Turkey, and that the Turks who voted yes, intentionally or unintentionally, damaged the Turkey that Atatürk established.

In their extensive report on referendum, the British Times claimed, “Erdogan’s victory left a divided Turkey behind”.

Martin Chulov, the Middle East correspondent of the British The Guardian, has commented on the referendum result as “Erdoğan getting backing to strengthen his autocratic grip on Turkey” in his opinion piece that he wrote in Istanbul.

Similar reports and commentaries about the referendum in Turkey even preceded the Easter celebrations in some of the Western media. The live broadcasts and the headlines of the newspapers gave immediate priority to the referendum and the results were reported concurrently.

On the other hand, the various factors that triggered an increase in no votes signaled that there are important issues that need to be considered urgently by the AKP and the Government. No votes dominated within the intellectual circles who attach great importance to modernity, art, aesthetics and quality and who are seriously disturbed by any intervention in women’s freedom in style of dress, lifestyle and behavior, as well as in the coastal regions and the big cities of the country. This suggests that the government should place more emphasis on these issues or should emphasize that it does so.

The fact that these issues are not handled as competently and that some people and sections of the ruling base are following an exact opposite attitude towards these vital issues have caused NO votes to be the majority in the regions we talked about. Even though Mr. President and Mr. Prime Minister are personally paying particular attention to vital issues such as quality, modernity and the comfort and freedom of women, it is certain that the necessary emphasis should be placed on these issues and special policies should be followed in order to eliminate these concerns.

In the end, anyone who cast yes or no is still one of the precious children of this country, except for some small groups we mentioned above. The result could have been no instead of yes; in that case Turkey would have continued on its path of peace, democracy and brotherhood, as it does right now. The important thing is to never forget that respecting the results is a requirement of democracy and to never appease provocateurs who are trying to extract provocative material from both situations.

*The writer has authored more than 300 books translated into 73 languages on politics, religion and science. He tweets @harun_yahya.

Source:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2017-04-16/after-erdogans-referendum-victory
http://time.com/4741834/turkey-referendum-erdogan-divided/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/16/erdogan-gets-backing-to-strengthen-his-autocratic-grip-on-turkey

Moscow Conference: Afghanistan On Verge Of Collapse Or Blossoming? – OpEd

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Whether Afghanistan is on the verge of blossoming or on the verge of collapsing is yet to be seen. Before the 11-nation Afghan Peace Conference, hosted by Russia, there was a Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) formed in January, 2016 to advance the peace process with the participation of US, China, Pakistan and Afghanistan. All these states conducted talks with Taliban, though Russia sensed it was marginalized. Eventually this effort of the QCG did not accomplish its objective. Instead Moscow organized a three party meeting on Afghanistan included Russia, China, Pakistan.

Russia held a second meeting of the six-nations on Feb. 15 with the addition of India, Iran. Assessing the resurgence of Russia in the contemporary international political scenario, its first and foremost objective was to remind the West not to ignore Moscow’s interests in the Afghanistan matter at regional and international platforms.

Now, this is the third time that Russia has hosted regional talks in five months with the expansion of an additional five Central Asian States. The paramount stakeholder US, did not join this regional consultation/talk while its great role was emphasized simply by the dropping of the non-nuclear, Mother of All Bombs in eastern Afghanistan’s Achin district of the Nangarhar Province. But, also on the eve of regional talks, US State Department acting spokesperson Mark Toner titled this consultation as Russia’s Vanity Project.

The US Administration’s absence from the conference is depicting an increased geopolitical rivalry between US and Russia. This contemporary world  is not uni-polar but going towards multi-polarity. Many emerging powers such as China and India are playing their role regionally and internationally. Russia is also resurging with its role in different parts of the world. It has also taken steps for the International Afghanistan Peace Conference and invited US on its soil for talks. There is still a conflicting scenario between Russia and US. It is impossible for Russia alone to set up a diplomatic podium to find ways for reconciliation in the war-torn country and settling Afghanistan drawn out struggle and Taliban insurgency. Though Russia is concerned about the Afghan resolution and has claimed that it does not want to allow ISIS or any other extremist group with ambitions beyond the Afghan border by establishing footholds in the country and threatening the former Soviet States (Central Asian States), most of them have defence agreements with Russia.

Hence, it is pertinent for all global and regional powers to set up a platform to actualize Afghanistan peace and stability on its soil rather anywhere else.

Simultaneously equal involvement of US is a pre-requisite otherwise another Mother of All Bombs is quite possible.

As far as Pakistan-Afghanistan relations are concerned, they have been deteriorating with charges and counter-charges regarding sheltering anti-states militant attacks. Another factor which is prominent that is the growing Indo-US ties probing India to play its influential role in Afghanistan. Af-Pak ties are not on an even keel.

All these events, which are discussed above, have strong implications on Pakistan. Pakistan should raise its voice that it has been playing indispensible role in countering terrorism rather promoting on regional and international forums to avoid the Mother of All Bombs on Pakistan’s adjacent border with Afghanistan.

Tasneem Aslam, Pakistan’s Foreign Office Additional Secretary said that Pakistan welcomes the extended format of the peace conference on Afghanistan. She told Sputnik News, “ in our view, it was useful discussion, and was an extended format. Five Central Asian States shares common border with Afghanistan and any instability in Afghanistan have an impact on them in many ways. The Pakistani Diplomat said that these regional talks were fruitful and all the participant 11 countries were willing on the idea of reconciliation as this is the only roadmap for Afghanistan. While US State Department acting spokesperson Mark Toner said that Washington’s regional peace efforts “seemed to be a unilateral Russian attempt to assert influence in the region that wasn’t constructive this time”. These conflicting views forecast another war game in this region, pursuing their own regional interests. Eventually geopolitical rivalry will be increased between these two states.

If we analyze the whole situation in Afghanistan, the conflict in this country is not open like Syria while its low-intensity conflict where the situation escalates sporadically and there are occasional incidents in each province. The overall situation is not homogenous in this country. Some provinces such as Punjshir, Dykundi, Bamiyan or the northern city of Mazr-e Sharif are relatively less affected by conflict driven violence. More violence is in northern Kunduz, Southern Helmand or eastern Nangahar.

Assessing the geo-political alignment in South Asia where China-Pakistan and Russia are getting closer for joint ventures, including  joint military exercises between Russia and Pakistan. The latter is committed to work with the international community to support efforts for peace and recompilation in Afghanistan. Simultaneously smooth Pakistan-US relations are pertinent for peace and stability in the region. Stability and peace in South Asian region primarily depends upon the stability in Afghanistan. Pakistan is worried of the violent campaign of IS which shares 2600 Km border with Afghanistan. It is crucial for both Pakistan and Afghanistan to establish greater interactions at different levels specifically at government to government level for border management, revival of Afghan peace process and to enhance trade and commerce.

In essence, if the US and other western states were on the negotiation table in Moscow, it would have been a major breakthrough for the peaceful solution for the future settlement of Afghanistan. At least this meeting could have paved the way or laid the common ground talks for the final settlement.

*Asia Maqsood is a research associate at Strategic Vision Institute Islamabad.

French Presidential Elections 2017 – OpEd

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In France, on Sunday April 23, 2017, the first round of voting for presidential elections took place. Just for curiosity, I looked at the candidates’ biographies in Wikipedia, and the policies they promised,

There is a female candidate, Marine Le Pen, a lawyer, chairwoman of French Nationalist Front, with a long political history, a senior and experienced politician who inherited the party from her far rightist father, then fired his father, defended her exit policy from the European Union named Frexit.

France's Marine Le Pen. Photo by JÄNNICK Jérémy, Wikipedia Commons.
France’s Marine Le Pen. Photo by JÄNNICK Jérémy, Wikipedia Commons.

Marine Le Pen wants immigrants as well as Muslim minorities to be deported from France. She says “Every Friday at noon time, you close the streets of Paris to pray. That means the invasion of France. The occupation is not done only with tanks, guns, or rifle. You can not insert yourself visible in a Christian country. The immigrants should return to their countries,” She further says “I certainly do not cover my head when talking to Muslim leaders”.

Marine LePen was married twice, divorced twice, now lives with a third partner now without marriage, She has three adult age children from her first marriage. She uses social media, also speaks very well on the podium.

France's Emmanuel Macron. Photo by Claude Truong-Ngoc, Wikipedia Commons.
France’s Emmanuel Macron. Photo by Claude Truong-Ngoc, Wikipedia Commons.

The second most important candidate is Emmanuel Macron, born in year 1977, 40-years-old, first an investment banker, then economy minister in Hollande government. He speaks fluent English, he is young dynamic, supports European Union. He promotes immigration. He supports reducing global warming, climate change, renewable energies. He pursues European policies. He uses social media very well,. He has more than 660 thousand followers on twitter account,

Emmanuel Macron, married to Brigitte Trogneux in 2007. Brigitte was born in 1953, 26 years senior of Emmanuel Macron. Emmanuel Macron was at school at the age of 16 when they met. She was French literature teacher in his high school. Emmanuel Macron’s family objected to this situation with Brigitte Trogneux, who had been married to a banker at that time. She had three children from his banker husband. She had divorced the banker husband and married Emmanuel Macron in 2007,

Donald Trump (70) is married to Melanie (42). Emmanuel Macron (40) marries Brigitte (63). That is their private life. We look at the politics of the country how it is ruled, the rule of law, the continuation of the parliamentary regime, the separation of powers, the smooth and fair elections. Politicians’ emotional life is not our business.

At the end of the day, LePen and Macron were the Candidates with the first two most votes. They will meet again on the 7th of May after 2 weeks. Then the political agenda in France will be resolution of double citizenship, the status of immigrants, the continuation or termination of membership of the European Union,

Your writer predicts that Macron will win at the end of the 7th May in the second round elections. Let’s us see if our forecast will come true.

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