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ACLU Sues Another Catholic Hospital – OpEd

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The ACLU is suing another Catholic hospital—and this one really puts the lie to their professed motives of anti-discrimination and access to healthcare.

Evan Michael Minton, a former legislative aide in California, wants to change from being a woman to a man. As part of the process, Minton sought a hysterectomy at Mercy San Juan Medical Center, part of the Dignity Health Care chain.

As a Catholic institution, Mercy San Juan does not perform elective hysterectomies. A spokeswoman for the hospital explained that such procedures may only be performed to treat a serious medical problem, and when there is no alternative treatment available.

Mercy immediately referred Minton to another hospital within the Dignity chain—one that is not Catholic—and the procedure was performed within a few days.

So there was no discrimination. Minton was treated exactly the same as any other patient seeking an elective hysterectomy at a Catholic hospital. And there was no lack of access to the procedure. The very institution Minton and the ACLU are suing facilitated that access for Minton at another hospital.

But those inconvenient facts won’t stop the ACLU’s war on Catholic hospitals. Quite frankly, the ACLU is trying to use Catholic healthcare to undermine the moral integrity of the Catholic Church. They want to force Catholic hospitals to abort babies and provide contraception and sterilization, in direct violation of Catholic teaching.


Short Choices: The French Presidential Elections – OpEd

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The establishment got another burning in the French elections on Sunday, revealing again that there is no level of voter disgust that will not find some voice in the current range of elections. The terror for pollsters and the establishment now is whether Marine Le Pen will realize her anti-Euro project and drag the French nation kicking and moaning into a new, even more fractious order. In her way will be the pro-European Union figure of Emmanuel Macron.

The French example is similar to others of recent times: parties with presumed tenure were confined to a punitive dustbin, rubbished for stale, estranged obsolescence. The Gaullists got what was a fair drubbing – 19.9 percent for François Fillon of the Republicans, a figure crusted and potted with corruption.

It did not, however, mean that both candidates in the first and second positions were political virgins. In that sense, the US election remains an exemplar, a true shock. France retains a traditional appearance to it, albeit a violently ruffled one.

Macron, with his 23.9 percent, supposedly deemed outside the establishment, still held office as minister for economy, finance and industry but flew the Socialist coop in opportunistic fancy. Blooded in traditional harness, he has managed to give the impression that he has shed enough of the old for the new, notably with his movement En Marche. He is blowing hard from what commentators have termed a “centrist” position. (To be at the centre is to be in the middle, which is not necessarily a good thing in current times.)

Just to weaken the sense of Macron as outsider, both establishment parties – the Socialist, led by Benoît Hamon, and the Republican –urged voters to go for the centrist option. This all had the appearance of a gentleman’s seedy agreement, plotted in a traditional smoking room to undermine an unlikable contender. The losers wanted to be vicarious winners. The tarnished Fillon urged voters to “reflect on your conscience.” In effect, Macron as a quantity is being sanitised for stability, the firebreak against the Le Pen revolution.

Le Pen herself speaks to a particular French and nationalist sensibility, tutored to a large extent by her father, who also ran in the 2002 Presidential elections and lost to Jacques Chirac. She is hardly one to be unfamiliar with the political argot, which has retained a reactionary punch in more measured guise.

Le Pen kept her approach punchily traditional, milking the killing last Thursday of a policeman on the Champs-Elysees with old apple and oranges comparisons on security and immigration. Having her in the Presidential office would see the stop of “mass immigration and the free movement of terrorists.”

For Le Pen, the May 7 runoff election would enable a choice to be made between “savage globalisation that threatens our civilisation” and “borders that protect our jobs, our security and our national identity.”

Macron provides an attractive target for the Front National: having worked for Rothschild, he supplies the front for corporate interests, and is “Hollande’s baby” uninterested in French patriotism. He certainly promises to be friendlier to companies in France, with a policy envisaging a cut of the corporate tax rate from 33 percent to 25 percent, while also permitting them to re-negotiate the sacred 35-hour week. His vision of the European Union, in short, is business as usual.

Under Le Pen’s particular tent lie appeals to critics of globalisation, a force that has rented and sunk various industries while also seeking to reform the French labour market. But this nostalgic throwback entails barriers and bridges, building fortifications, holding firm and wishing for the best.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon proved to be another dark horse, the spicy left-wing option to Le Pen, and a candidate who experienced a surge of popularity prior to the poll. His result is a story that has invigorated the left while gutting the socialists, providing us a reminder of the time of a greater radicalism.

“Len Pen,” claims Roger Martelli, “was counting on turning this election into a fight with the Socialist party government, but she had to compete with a radicalized right-wing opposition and socialist opponents who had moved more sharply to the left than she had expected.”[1]

Nor were things pretty for Hamon, with a devastating result to compare to Gaston Defferre’s 5 per cent showing in 1969. The socialists reformed by the 1971 Épinay Congress in the wake of that electoral catastrophe, have been well and truly buried.

What Mélenchon’s popularity suggests is that the European system, at least the model as it stands, needs reform and a degree of disentangling vis-à-vis the state. Nor has he told his supporters to vote for Macron, a paternalistic ploy that can irritate voters.

“None of us will vote for the far-right,” went the consultation to 450,000 registered supporters of the France Untamed movement. “But does it mean we need to give voting advice?”[2] As Der Spiegel opined with characteristic gloominess, “The presidential election in France is becoming yet another end game over Europe’s political future.”[3]

Much will depend on voter turnout come May, and the seasoned opportunism of Le Pen. Her latest play is to place herself above partisan considerations by stepping down from the leadership of the National Front. “So, this evening, I am no longer the president of the National Front. I am the candidate for the French presidency.”

Notes:
[1] https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/04/french-election-macron-le-pen-fn-melenchon/

[2] http://www.politico.eu/article/melenchon-asks-supporters-if-they-will-back-macron/

[3] http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/french-presidential-election-a-battle-of-left-right-extremes-a-1143745.html

Drivers Of Post-Crisis Slump In Eurozone And US – Analysis

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The Global Crisis led to a sharp contraction and long-lasting slump in both Eurozone and US real activity, but the post-crisis adjustment in the Eurozone and the US shows striking differences. This column argues that financial shocks were key determinants of the 2008-09 Great Recession, for both the Eurozone and the US. The post-2009 slump in the Eurozone mainly reflects a combination of adverse aggregate demand and supply shocks, in particular lower productivity growth, and persistent adverse shocks to capital investment linked to the poor health of the Eurozone financial system. Mono-causal explanations of the persistent slump are thus insufficient. Adverse financial shocks were less persistent for the US.

By Robert Kollmann, Beatrice Pataracchia, Rafal Raciborski, Marco Ratto, Werner Roeger and Lukas Vogel*

The Global Crisis led to a sharp contraction in both Eurozone and US real activity, and was followed by a long-lasting slump. However, the post-crisis adjustment in the Eurozone and the US shows striking differences. In particular, the Eurozone slump has been markedly more protracted. There is a heated debate about the causes of these developments. Understanding these causes is essential for an effective policy response to the post-crisis slump.

The controversy about the causes of the Eurozone and US post-crisis slump

Some commentators argue that the protracted Eurozone slump reflects weak aggregate demand, driven inter alia by restrictive fiscal policy (‘austerity’) (e.g. IMF 2012, De Grauwe 2014, Stiglitz 2015). These commentators mainly advocate policy measures that boost aggregate demand. Other analysts stress that rigidities in Eurozone product and labour markets may have hampered the rebound of the Eurozone economy by slowing down sectoral redeployment and the adoption of new technologies (e.g. Fernald 2015). That analysis suggests that supply-side policies (e.g. structural reforms) would be appropriate to overcome the slump.  Several commentators have also suggested that post-crisis deleveraging pressures and financial constraints have contributed to the persistent slump, especially in the Eurozone (e.g. Rogoff 2015). The supply of credit to the private sector was disrupted more persistently in the Eurozone than in the US, due to the continuing poorer health of Eurozone banks (OECD 2014). Eurozone banks rebuilt their capital much more gradually than US banks after the crisis; in addition, Eurozone bank balance sheets were weakened by the sovereign debt crisis that erupted in 2010-11 (Acharya et al. 2015, Kalemli-Özcan et al. 2015).

We provide a slightly more detailed overview of the divergent post-crisis trajectories of the Eurozone and US economies to shed light on possible drivers of the slump. We then discuss our recent work that analyses the post-crisis slump using a state-of-the-art empirical model that allows disentangling and quantifying the key shocks and transmission channels that have been debated in the academic and policy literature (Kollmann et al. 2016).

Overview of Eurozone and US post-crisis trajectories

Eurozone and US per capita GDP grew at about the same rate before the 2008-09 Great Recession. Both economies experienced roughly the same (relative) contraction, -5%, in 2008-09, and then began to recover at roughly the same rate. However, the Eurozone recovery was short-lived. In 2010-11, the sovereign debt crisis erupted in Eurozone periphery countries, and the trajectories of Eurozone and US per capita GDP began to diverge – the Eurozone experienced a recession in 2011-13, while US output growth returned to pre-crisis rates (see Panel a of Figure 1). Eurozone and US per capita real GDP only recovered to pre-crisis levels in 2016 and 2014, respectively, and remain noticeably below pre-crisis trends, as of this writing.

Private investment contracted less (as a share of GDP) in the Eurozone than in the US during the 2008-09 crisis, but in the aftermath of the crisis the Eurozone investment share continued to trend down, while the US investment share began to recover in 2011 (Panel b of Figure 1).

The post-crisis Eurozone–US divergence is also apparent in total factor productivity (TFP), a key determinant of an economy’s production capacity. Eurozone TFP fell during the Great Recession, and has since then stagnated at a level below its pre-crisis peak. By contrast, US TFP showed zero growth during the Great Recession, and then started to grow again (see Panel c of Figure 1). Also, post-crisis inflation has been lower in the Eurozone than in the US.

Banking/financial variables too indicate a marked divergence between the Eurozone and the US in the aftermath of the Great Recession. The health of both the Eurozone and US banking systems was damaged by the 2008-09 financial crisis. However, the state of the Eurozone banking system continued to deteriorate after 2009, while the health of the US banking system improved steadily. Note, for example, that the Global Crisis triggered a sizeable increase in Eurozone and US non-performing loan (NPL) rates (defined as non-performing bank loans divided by outstanding loans) (see Panel d of Figure 1). The Eurozone NPL rate continued to trend upward during 2009-14, while the US NPL rate fell steadily. As we document in Kollmann et al. (2016), credit supply continued to tighten in the Eurozone after 2009, while credit standards loosened in the US.

Figure 1. Macroeconomic and financial indicators, Eurozone and US

Notes: Eurozone variables: continuous lines; US variables: dashed lines. Source: Kollmann et al. (2016).
Notes: Eurozone variables: continuous lines; US variables: dashed lines. Source: Kollmann et al. (2016).

Disentangling the drivers of the slump: Model-based evidence

So far, the debate on the causes of the post-crisis slump has often been polemical, with little use of evidence-based quantitative models. Our research in Kollmann et al. (2016) sheds light on the main hypotheses that have been discussed in the literature (see above), by developing a structural macroeconomic model of a three-region world derived from coherent microeconomic principles. The model is estimated with quarterly data for the Eurozone, the US, and an aggregate of the rest-of-the-world, for the period 1999Q1-2016Q2 (the extension until 2016Q2 referred to below is an update of Kollmann et al. 2016). To address the range of views about the post-crisis slump, the model assumes a rich set of demand and supply shocks in goods, labour, and asset markets, and it allows for nominal and real rigidities and financial frictions. The use of an estimated economic model allows us to infer the shocks that have driven the divergent Eurozone and US adjustment paths – and, hence, to determine what shocks and transmission mechanisms mattered most during the financial crisis and its aftermath.

Figures 2a and 2b summarise the key results. The coloured bars show the contributions of key shocks to historical year-on-year growth rates (annualised) of real GDP in the Eurozone and in the US (solid lines with rhombs show the data). Bars above the solid horizontal line represent positive shock contributions, while bars below the solid horizontal line show negative shock contributions.

Figure 2a. Shock decomposition for Eurozone year-on-year real GDP growth

 

Figure 2b. Shock decomposition for US year-on-year real GDP growth

The slow post-crisis recoveries in the Eurozone and the US have both common and idiosyncratic components. An important common feature for the Eurozone and the US was a strong rise in risk premia on production capital investment (investment wedges) during the 2008-09 recession (see negative contribution of “Financial” shocks to GDP growth in Figures 2a and 2b), which put an end to the pre-crisis investment boom. A second common factor was the negative contribution of falling export demand during the same period (“Foreign” shocks).

The persistent Eurozone slump after 2008-09 (a double-dip recession) reflects a combination of adverse supply and demand shocks, in particular negative shocks to TFP growth, and adverse shocks to capital investment risk premia linked to the poor health of the Eurozone banking system. The negative contribution of adverse Eurozone financial shocks to real GDP growth continued until 2015, but disappears in the most recent quarters. A model-based decomposition of the European Commission output forecast for 2017 (European Commission 2016) suggests continued moderation of financial conditions for the Eurozone. In Kollmann et al. (2016), we show that the estimated capital investment risk premia correlate strongly with empirical measures of credit tightness.

In addition, the model suggests that rising price and wage mark-ups (“Labour and goods market frictions”) depressed Eurozone growth in 2012-13.

The empirical analysis suggests that (discretionary) fiscal policy had some impact, especially when accounting for the lower-bound constraint on monetary policy (see the online appendix to Kollmann et al. 2016). Fiscal policy was stabilising during the 2008-09 recession and contractionary (austerity) in subsequent years, but it was not a major factor delaying the recovery in the Eurozone.

The faster post-crisis rebound of the US economy largely reflects a steady fall in capital investment risk premia, linked to the faster improvement in the health of the US financial system. In other terms, adverse financial shocks were less persistent in the US than in the Eurozone. Furthermore, post-crisis TFP growth fell markedly less in the US than in the Eurozone. In the aftermath of the crisis, US aggregate activity also benefited from more resilient private consumption demand, consistent with faster household deleveraging in the US (compared to the Eurozone).

However, the estimates also identify important factors that slowed down the recovery of the US economy. In particular, US price mark-ups rose during the post-crisis period – i.e. goods prices responded only moderately to falling demand – which had a negative influence on US output.

Conclusion

The post-2009 slump in the Eurozone mainly reflects a combination of adverse aggregate demand and supply shocks, in particular lower productivity growth, and persistent adverse shocks to capital investment, linked to the poor health of the Eurozone financial system. Mono-causal explanations of the persistent slump are thus insufficient. Adverse financial shocks were less persistent for the US.

Authors’ note: The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the European Commission.

*About the authors:
Robert Kollmann
, Professor of Economics, Université Libre de Bruxelles; Research Fellow, CEPR

Beatrice Pataracchia, Scientific officer, Joint Research Centre, European Commission

Rafal Raciborski, Lecturer, Vistula University

Marco Ratto, Joint Research Centre, European Commission

Werner Roeger, Head of Models and Databases unit, Directorate General for Economics and Finance, European Commission

Lukas Vogel, Economist, Directorate General for Economics and Finance, European Commission

References:
Acharya, V, I Drechsel and P Schnabl (2015), “A Pyrrhic Victory – Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk”, Journal of Finance  69, 2689-2739.

De Grauwe, P (2014), Stop Structural Reforms, Start Public Investments.

European Commission (2016), “European Economic Forecast Autumn 2016”, European Economy Institutional Paper 38.

Fernald, J (2015), “The Pre-Global-Financial-Crisis Slowdown in Productivity”, Working Paper.

International Monetary Fund (2012), World Economic Outlook (October).

Kalemli-Özcan, S, L Laeven and D Moreno (2014), “Debt Overhang in Europe: Evidence from Firm-Bank-Sovereign Linkages”, Working Paper, University of Maryland.

Kollmann, R, B Pataracchia, R Raciborski, M Ratto, W Röger and L Vogel (2016), “The Post-Crisis Slump in the Euro Area and the US: Evidence from an Estimated Three-Region DSGE Model”, European Economic Review 88, 21-41.

OECD (2014), Economic Surveys: Euro Area.

Rogoff, K (2015), “Debt Supercycle, Not Secular Stagnation”, VoxEU.org, April.

Stiglitz, J (2015), “Les dégâts induits par la crise sont durables”, In: Le Soir (Bruxelles), 2 September, pp.14-15.

Diplomacy With North Korea: A Real Benchmark For President Trump’s 100 Days – OpEd

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By Christine Ahn*

The Trump administration recently announced an emergency meeting with 100 senators at the White House, where many speculated that Trump would disclose new intelligence to justify U.S. military action against North Korea, or else more sanctions.

Neither would constitute a success in the Trump administration’s first 100 days. What would is calling for diplomacy to avert nuclear war.

Any military action by the United States, however limited, would provoke a conflict that could instantly kill millions on the Korean peninsula — and threaten a regional nuclear war that could draw in Japan, China, and Russia. Every president before Trump considered a pre-emptive strike against North Korea, but they were quickly sobered by the reality that a military option would trigger a counter-reaction from Pyongyang. The Obama, Bush, and Clinton administrations all felt they couldn’t justify military action that would kill millions of South Koreans and endanger the 28,500 U.S. soldiers and 230,000 U.S. citizens residing there.

The most serious brush was in 1994, when President Clinton considered a pre-emptive strike on North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear reactor. The Pentagon concluded — well before Pyongyang possessed nuclear weapons — that even limited action would claim a million lives in the first 24 hours, if North Korea retaliated with conventional strikes on Seoul. President Obama, too, considered surgical strikes, but as The New York Times journalist David Sanger reported, “the risks of missing were tremendous, including renewed war on the Korean peninsula.”

Stratfor, a global intelligence firm, also raises questions about the suggestion that it’s possible to destroy North Korea’s nuclear infrastructure in a single strike. “We simply do not have a comprehensive or precise picture of the North Korean nuclear program, especially when it comes to the number of weapons and delivery vehicles,” it says. “We do not know for sure where they are located or how well they are protected.” Pyongyang was sure to communicate this during its military parade on the 105th birthday of its founder Kim Il Sung, when it showcased its nuclear-capable and mobile Transporter Erector Launchers (TELs). Not a sitting duck, TELS would allow North Korea to fire missiles from anywhere, from a forest or mountain, against Japan and South Korea.

“There is no South Korean leader who thinks the first strike by the U.S. is okay,” said Suh Choo-suk, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses. “The Security of South Korea is as important as that of the U.S.,” reminded Moon Jae-in, the leading South Korean presidential candidate. “No pre-emptive strike should be carried out without the consent of South Korea” — especially “in the absence of a South Korean president.” The second leading candidate Ahn Chul-soo cautioned, “We need to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue in a peaceful manner.”

Importantly, North Korea has threatened to retaliate only in response to a U.S. pre-emptive military strike. In its 7th Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un affirmed that his country would not use nuclear weapons unless its sovereignty was violated.

Last week, DPRK Vice Foreign Minister Han Song-ryol explained that his government’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles was “to protect our government and system from threat and provocation from the United States.” Former Secretary of Defense William Perry, who helped negotiate a freeze of North Korea’s nuclear program during the Clinton administration, agrees: “I believe that the danger of a North Korean ICBM program is not that they would launch an unprovoked attack on the United States — they are not suicidal.”

President Trump must avoid at all costs a direct military confrontation with North Korea, which has a long history of engaging in brinksmanship. The United States has been successful in defusing past crises by working in partnership with U.S. allies in the region. Today, China calls for restraint, and South Korea is urging a diplomatic solution. That diplomatic solution must include a formal resolution of the Korean War, which was only temporarily halted by a ceasefire when North Korean and American military commanders signed the Armistice Agreement in 1953.

President Trump could demonstrate his art of deal making by advancing the only solution that’s ever worked: diplomacy and engagement.

Foreign Policy In Focus columnist Christine Ahn is the international coordinator of Women Cross DMZ, a global movement of women mobilizing for peace in Korea.

Five Scenarios For Brexit: With Only One Good Outcome – Analysis

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Negotiations on Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union will be acrimonious – yet should not overlook the need for future cooperation.

By Joergen Oerstroem Moeller*

The European Council prepares to define the EU negotiating mandate after Prime Minister Theresa May triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to fix terms for leaving the EU. The stage is set for a dramatic – traumatic – meeting with destiny for Britain and its former 27 partners. Five scenarios appear on the horizon, four of which point to total breakdown followed by a clean cut in economic and trade links between Britain and the EU. In any case, next two years promises to be bruising – something that Britain brought upon itself.

The first scenario – that wisdom prevails and a settlement emerges after rounds of acrimonious meetings, mutual accusations, marathon sessions and brinkmanship – is unfortunately the least likely. Such a scenario requires statesmanship of which Europe/Britain are in short supply these days. A high degree of technical expertise is useful only if directed by a firm hand on the tiller with statecraft. Geopolitics, strategic interests, security, domestic politics and not the least economics and trade intertwine to form a Gordian knot. Cool heads and common sense could push EU and Britain towards agreement, but opposition on both sides may well overpower such feelings and block what could be a sensible new relationship between Britain and the EU.

Large rounds of negotiations take on their own dynamics. Negotiators start to believe their tactical positioning and, at home, parliaments and the public opinion do the same. The outcome is compared with initial positions and discrepancies judged too hard to swallow.

My personal experience dates from five rounds: Denmark’s accession negotiations 47 years ago, the Single Act in 1984, the Maastricht Treaty in 1991, the Edinburg Agreement in 1992 and the Amsterdam Treaty of 1995.  These negotiations succeeded because they took place among countries regarding one another as friends and partners looking for a win-win result and sympathetic to problems raised by member states.

From the start, the British attitude on Brexit has been adversarial – “us versus them” – fueled by hard-core opponents of the EU that found echo in some politicians in the EU not wishing to be helpful.  A civil breakup requires complete support at home, something Prime Minister May cannot count on. Scotland and Northern Ireland, not surprisingly looking out for their own interests, are not supportive. May’s own party is split over the shape of future economic relations with the EU.

A second scenario is a stone-hard Brexit – by 2019, Britain or the EU – and possibly both – concludes that no satisfactory agreement is at hand, at least not one majorities in national parliaments and the European Parliament could support. Seeking extension of the two-year deadline, which in reality requires an agreement to be in sight, becomes meaningless. Furthermore, with no end point in sight, no transitional arrangements are sought. The result would be an abrupt and unprepared rupture of links spanning over a large part of daily life and most of industrial regulations and economic conditions. Formally, Britain and the EU would fall back on terms prescribed by the World Trade Organization, but even that would require time and negotiations. Any good will that existed will have disappeared, leaving both sides disgruntled at best and fueling distrustfulness.

Politically, a decisive factor is whether Britain and the EU conclude that they share the same destiny – face analogous challenges and strive to build a similar societal model. As it becomes more apparent that this is not the case, Britain – or rather England – may move towards an American free-market model. Continental Europe heralds a social welfare system, and history may well say that this engendered Brexit after futile efforts to reconcile the two models. It also explains why Scotland may eventually leave the UK and join the EU.

Technically most major issues can be solved. Britain’s future financial contribution, the City of London, access to each other markets, and free movement of people are all difficult, but either the costs and benefits are spread over a large number of people, or both sides are interested enough to limit negative repercussions. Such negotiations are doable.

The problems arise when negotiators move to complicated issues with direct and tangible consequences for a limited number of restive people, susceptible to protest and with political influence.

Fisheries illustrates this. Fishermen from nine EU member states rely on access to British waters, and the thorny problems include fishing rights, rights to land catch in British ports, conditions for processing raw fish into what people eat, and conditions for selling to other countries. EU-fishermen will balk at anything that deviates from the status quo while those in Britain will question the point of leaving if the country allows EU-fishermen to fish as they used to.

The issue is a sensitive one – and explains why Greenland left the EU in 1985, Iceland never joined, and Norway twice, in 1972 and 1994, decided against joining.

The third scenario is defeat in the House of Commons. The hard-core Tory Brexiters can be expected to vote against just about everything bar a clean cut break, and the opposition has little reason to bail the prime minister out of trouble: Labor wants EU rules to protect workers, the Liberal Democrats are pro-EU, and the Scottish National Party sees Brexit as giving leverage for a second referendum about Scotland in the UK with a future prospect of joining the EU on its own terms.To strengthen her position, May called for a snap election on June 8 and lashed out at opponents to her Brexit policy in the parliament saying “the country is coming together but Westminster is not.” Considering that 48 percent of the electorate voted for remain, such a tactic may backfire. It is by no means certain that the next parliament will be more amenable to her wishes than the current one.

A fourth scenario is that the European Parliament withhold its consent, required according to article 50. Some in the European Parliament may still be smarting from former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s assessment that it was “a Mickey Mouse parliament” – and seek to demonstrate how this powerful body in the EU’s legislative process is not ready to be steam-rolled. So far, few in Britain are taking the slightest interest in what might happen in the European Parliament – a dangerous neglect.

The fifth scenario is that any of 27 national parliaments plus 13 local/regional parliaments stymie agreement. For many member states, Brexit is an important, but not a crucial issue. For some, it is an opportunity to seek concessions from Britain. Gibraltar and Spain’s long lasting efforts to regain sovereignty over the rock is just one example and strong political forces in Spain will not let Brexit, as an opportunity, pass without exploiting it. Earlier this year the regional parliament in Wallonia, part of Belgium, blocked a EU-Canada free trade agreement, asking for concessions.

Perhaps the only event that might tip the scale is some geopolitical earthquake – say, an abrupt and agonizing American withdrawal from Europe, transferring troops to Asia to confront North Korea combined with Russian belligerence in Central- and Eastern Europe, events in the Middle East/North Africa, or a new global financial crisis – driving home the message that the EU including Britain must close ranks to defend its common interests.

But even geopolitical disaster might not be enough.

*Joergen Oerstroem Moeller is a visiting senior fellow with ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. He is also an adjunct professor with Singapore Management University and Copenhagen Business School and former state-secretary with the Royal Danish Foreign Ministry.

The Shame Of Killing Innocent People – OpEd

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On April 26th, 2017, in Yemen’s port city of Hodeidah, the Saudi-led coalition which has been waging war in Yemen for the past two years dropped leaflets informing Hodeidah’s residents of an impending attack.  One leaflet read:

“Our forces of legitimacy are heading to liberate Hodeidah and end the suffering of our gracious Yemeni people. Join your legitimate government in favor of the free and happy Yemen.”

And another: “The control of the Hodeidah port by the terrorist Houthi militia will increase famine and hinder the delivery of international relief aid to our gracious Yemeni people.”

Certainly the leaflets represent one aspect of a confusing and highly complicated set of battles raging in Yemen. Given alarming reports about near famine conditions in Yemen, it seems the only ethical “side” for outsiders to choose would be that of children and families afflicted by hunger and disease.

Yet the U.S. has decidedly taken the side of the Saudi-led coalition. Consider a Reuters report, on April 19, 2017, after U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis met with senior Saudi officials. According to the report, U.S. officials said “U.S. support for the Saudi-led coalition was discussed including what more assistance the United States could provide, including potential intelligence support…”  The Reuters report notes that Mattis believes “Iran’s destabilizing influence in the Middle East would have to be overcome to end the conflict in Yemen, as the United States weighs increasing support to the Saudi-led coalition fighting there.”

Iran may be providing some weapons to the Houthi rebels, but it’s important to clarify what support the U.S. has given to the Saudi-led coalition.  As of March 21, 2016, Human Rights Watch reported the following weapon sales, in 2015 to the Saudi government:

  • July 2015, the US Defense Department approved a number of weapons sales to Saudi Arabia, including a US $5.4 billion deal for 600 Patriot Missiles and a $500 million deal for more than a million rounds of ammunition, hand grenades, and other items, for the Saudi army.
  • According to the US Congressional review, between May and September, the US sold $7.8 billion worth of weapons to the Saudis.
  • In October, the US government approved the sale to Saudi Arabia of up to four Lockheed Littoral Combat Ships for $11.25 billion.
  • In November, the US signed an arms deal with Saudi Arabia worth $1.29 billion for more than 10,000 advanced air-to-surface munitions including laser-guided bombs, “bunker buster” bombs, and MK84 general purpose bombs; the Saudis have used all three in Yemen.

Reporting about the role of the United Kingdom in selling weapons to the Saudis, Peace News notes that “Since the bombing began in March 2015, the UK has licensed over £3.3bn worth of arms to the regime, including:

  •  £2.2 bn worth of ML10 licences (aircraft, helicopters, drones)
  • £1.1 bn worth of ML4 licences (grenades, bombs, missiles, countermeasures)
  • £430,000 worth of ML6 licences (armoured vehicles, tanks)

What has the Saudi-led coalition done with all of this weaponry?  A United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights panel of experts found that:
“At least 3,200 civilians have been killed and 5,700 wounded since coalition military operations began, 60 percent of them in coalition airstrikes.”

A Human Rights Watch report, referring to the UN panel’s findings, notes that the panel documented attacks on camps for internally displaced persons and refugees; civilian gatherings, including weddings; civilian vehicles, including buses; civilian residential areas; medical facilities; schools; mosques; markets, factories and food storage warehouses; and other essential civilian infrastructure, such as the airport in Sana’a, the port in Hodeidah and domestic transit routes.”

Five cranes in Hodeidah which were formerly used to offload goods from ships arriving in the port city were destroyed by Saudi airstrikes.  70% of Yemen’s food comes through the port city.

Saudi coalition airstrikes have hit at least four hospitals supported by Doctors Without Borders.

In light of these findings, the leaflets fluttering down from Saudi jets on the beleaguered city of Hodeidah, encouraging residents to side with the Saudis “in favor of the free and happy Yemen” seem exceptionally bizarre.

UN agencies have clamored for humanitarian relief. Yet the role the UN Security Council has played in calling for negotiations seems entirely lopsided.  On April 14, 2016, UN Security Council Resolution 2216 demanded “that all parties in the embattled country, in particular the Houthis, immediately and unconditionally end violence and refrain from further unilateral actions that threatened the political transition.” At no point is Saudi Arabia mentioned in the Resolution.

Speaking on December 19, 2016, Sheila Carpico, Professor of Political Science at the University of Richmond and a leading Yemen specialist called the UN Security Council sponsored negotiations a cruel joke.

These negotiations are based on UN Security Council resolutions 2201 and 2216. Resolution 2216 of 14 April 2015, reads as if Saudi Arabia is an impartial arbitrator rather than a party to an escalating conflict, and as if the GCC “transition plan” offers a “peaceful, inclusive, orderly and Yemeni-led political transition process that meets the legitimate demands and aspirations of the Yemeni people, including women.”

Although scarcely three weeks into the Saudi-led intervention the UN’s deputy secretary-general for human rights said that the majority of the 600 people already killed were civilian victims of Saudi and Coalition airstrikes, UNSC 2216 called only on “Yemeni parties” to end the use of violence. There was no mention of the Saudi-led intervention. There was similarly no call for a humanitarian pause or corridor.

The UN Security Council resolution seems as bizarre as the leaflets delivered by the Saudi jets.

The U.S. Congress could put an end to U.S. complicity in the crimes against humanity being committed by military forces in Yemen.  Congress could insist that the U.S. stop supplying the Saudi led coalition with weapons, stop helping Saudi jets to refuel, end diplomatic cover for Saudi Arabia, and stop providing the Saudis with intelligence support. And perhaps the U.S. Congress would move in this direction if elected representatives believed that their constituents care deeply about these issues. In today’s political climate, public pressure has become vital.

Historian Howard Zinn famously said, in 1993, “There is no flag large enough to cover the shame of killing innocent people for a purpose which is unattainable. If the purpose is to stop terrorism, even the supporters of the bombing say it won’t work; if the purpose is to gain respect for the United States, the result is the opposite…”  And if the purpose is to raise the profits of major military contractors and weapon peddlers?

100 Days In And The Reichstag Hasn’t Burned Yet – OpEd

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By Walter Russell Mead*

With President Trump’s 100 day mark approaching, those prophesying apocalyptic doom under have not come out looking so good.

There have been no mass arrests of peaceful protestors. Federal judges rule against presidential orders, the President sputters in indignation—and the rulings stand. Putin hasn’t been offered the code to the nuclear football. Late night comics excoriate the president and the Gestapo doesn’t knock at their door. The grifters and mountebanks who hopped on the campaign wagon back when nobody in the establishment was willing to help the Trump operation are either learning to play in the big leagues or being edged toward the exits. The stock market is strong; the economy hasn’t tanked. An avalanche of leaks hasn’t exposed the collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign that so many people were sure was going to lead to impeachment.

In other words, life in our constitutional republic is still rolling on much as usual—or at least, closer to usual than any of the hyperventilators predicted. Congress and the courts are functioning as they did before; the powers of the President are still limited by the rule of law.

That doesn’t mean that the Trump Presidency is off to a roaring start. It isn’t, and there have been some expensive misfires and mistakes. Critics of the Trump Administration have plenty of things to point to, and friends of the Administration still look nervous and jumpy.

But the Trump-Hitler folks made buffoons of themselves with paranoid fantasies and steamy, overheated scenarios of impending doom. Some will be big enough to admit their mistake, look hard at what they got wrong and why, and emerge as smarter and more creditworthy participants in the national conversation. Others, many others, will try to act as if nothing has happened, and will wonder why nobody listens the next time they cry “Wolf.”

About the author:
*Walter Russell Mead
, Distinguished Fellow

Source:
This article was published by the Hudson Institute

The Value Of The Sanctuary City Movement – OpEd

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By Taylor Lewis*

In the polarizing and contentious period since the 2016 presidential election, it has become relatively easy to be swept into the ongoing debate over U.S. immigration policy. Without full comprehension of local, national and hemispheric conditions however, one may be unaware of the real dangers that could be brought on by forced deportation.

Raised in Napa, California and shaped by my early experiences in the predominantly Hispanic bilingual immersion school I attended there—the Napa Valley Language Academy—I was fortunate to have been exposed to an inclusive spirit that brought me together with my peers to cross cultural boundaries and grow up together as fellow Napans.

This spirit, which draws immigrants to our communities from around the world, is paramount to maintaining the dynamism and diversity of our democracy, but is now being seriously threatened by a dangerous and xenophobic policy of the Trump administration: to seek out and evict all undocumented immigrants—not just criminals—with brute force.

This policy, an extensive revamping of the original “Secure Communities Act”, marks a move to recruit local police forces to join ICE officials in hunting down and removing all potentially undocumented immigrants, including our nation’s migrant parents and their children.[i] The problem with this approach is that as local police are given free reign over vetting potential undocumented immigrants, the rights of all community members are also put at risk. Communities around the nation are now taking a stand, declaring themselves “sanctuaries” for undocumented people, meaning they will not instruct their local police to join ICE forces in rounding up, detaining and evicting their immigrant community members.

Aside from the implicit importance of preserving our hospitality to immigrants, there is another pertinent reason for municipalities to stand up and join the Sanctuary movement while President Trump holds office: it will continue to improve public safety. If we persist in complying with Trump’s efforts to root out all undocumented community members, panic and irrational behavior could ensue. We must learn from the 1979 decision of the Los Angeles Chief of Police, Mr. Daryl Gates, to remove local police officials from the task of immigration enforcement, a policy that brought about an unprecedented improvement in public safety after decades of hostility and violence between police and local immigrants.[ii]

Let us not forget, as well, that immigrants are integral members of the American labor force. Here, again, the Napa Valley is a prime example. Between 2005 and 2009, immigrants comprised 73 percent of agricultural workers there, 39 percent of manufacturing workers, and 29 percent of hospitality workers in the county.[iii] If we don’t protect these workers and encourage them to remain in our communities, our local economies will take the one of the worst hits.

Considering these perceived economic and social burdens, it is necessary to clarify the potential ramifications of the Sanctuary City movement as local governments prepare to stand up to the federal forces. Many have expressed concern that the Trump administration could strike back at Sanctuary cities by selectively cutting federal funding, but one need not look any further than an April 14th release from the Associated Press in San Francisco to see that these threats are trifling and would not be easily implemented by the president’s raucous strategies. As the release states, “An attorney for the U.S. Department of Justice says an executive order withholding funds from sanctuary cities applies to a relatively small amount of grant money, not hundreds of millions of dollars as claimed previously”.[iv] While it is surely a deterrence, these threats must not be allowed to derail greater efforts to shelter our immigrant community members from the more menacing goals posed by the current immigration reform movement.

So far, four states, 39 cities and 364 counties in the United States have adopted pro-immigrant policies inspired by the Sanctuary Movement, but the nation must do better.[1] It is time for this list to expand to reflect the necessary level of solidarity for U.S. immigrants.

*Taylor Lewis, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

[i] Secure Communities – Memorandum of Agreement (U.S. Department of Homeland Security 2009).

[ii] Smith, Doug. “How LAPD’s Law-and-Order Chief Revolutionized the Way Cops Treated Illegal Immigration.” Los Angeles Times. February 5, 2017. http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-special-order-40-retrospective-20170205-story.html.

[iii] “Profile of Immigrants in Napa County.” Migrationpolicy.org. August 12, 2015. http://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/profile-immigrants-napa-county.

[iv] Sakuma , Amanda. “What Trump Doesn’t Tell You About Sanctuary Cities.” MSNBC. October 26, 2016. http://www.msnbc.com/specials/migrant-crisis/sanctuary-cities.


Why Do Some Nations Prosper? The Case Of North And South Korea – Analysis

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By Lucien Ellington and Tawni Hunt Ferrarini*

(FPRI) — Economists have debated for years why it is that some nations prosper while others do not. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea, DPRK) and the Republic of Korea (South Korea, ROK), for example, started out as poor nations after World War II. Now, South Korea has the same wealth as Western European nations, on average, yet North Korea firmly remains at the bottom of the world’s development ladder. This article suggests that institutions matter and that key institutions are fundamental to economic success.

Korea: From Kingdom to Colony

On the eve of the 20th century, Korea had been a unified state for over twelve centuries. The Chosŏn Dynasty Kings (1392-1910) presided over a country strongly influenced by Confucianism and other Chinese traditions; the dynasty’s kingdom was also home to a proud and distinctive people. Yet, Korea was more isolated from the West than China or even Japan. The economy of the “Hermit Kingdom” (a Western-inspired nickname) was also more agrarian with less commerce, urbanization, and manufacturing than either of its bigger Northeast Asian neighbors or Imperial Russia. For example, unlike Japan and much of China, market towns did not have commercial infrastructure, and traveling merchants heavily laden with goods were much more common in Korea. Although the economy was monetized, the medium of exchange was relatively undeveloped. One 19th century foreign traveler in Korea reported that six men or one pony was required to carry a money chest of copper coins worth 50 USD.[1]

Japan’s early 20th century domination of Korea and later formal annexation of the country as a colony (1910-1945) began economic modernization through the cruel exploitation of Koreans and by dividing northern from southern Koreans. The Japanese established an electric power company, constructed a railroad from Seoul to Pusan, established an imperial branch de facto central bank, and created a land development company.

Through the command and control structure of Imperial Japan, much of Korean land, labor, and capital was mobilized and forcibly channeled into the production of goods and services targeted to support the Japanese economy and, later in the colonial period, to support its military aggressions in the Asia-Pacific region while thwarting Soviet threats. Efficiency and productivity concerns that actually benefitted Koreans, with the exceptions of Koreans who collaborated with the Japanese, were not priorities. Growth in manufacturing and industrialization, investment in capital, advances in technology, and the rise of Japanese-owned business enterprises moved forward on the Korean peninsula. Education, training, and some higher education efforts advanced and further development in infrastructure occurred as Japan fueled its domestic economy and fed its military machine through its territorial occupations. It is important to note that ordinary Koreans not favored by colonial overlords had almost no access to education of any kind. By 1945, when the colonial period ended, only 20 percent of Korean children had ever seen the inside of an elementary school.[2]

The Japanese government’s 1912-1918 comprehensive land survey resulted in the seizure of both the former Korean government’s land holdings as well as land owned by small Korean property owners; large landowners were usually left alone since they could more easily document ownership. By 1930, the colonial government was by far the largest land owner in Korea possessing almost 40 percent of Korea’s land area.[3]

By 1931, colonial land policies in large part forced 2.3 million farmers to become tenants, quasi-tenants, or to migrate to Japanese-controlled Manchuria or to Russian Siberia to work in mines or factories. Estimates from the same year indicate that 19 percent of Korea’s total farm population had migrated. By 1936, more than half of the rice grown in Korea was being shipped to Japan. Although colonial Korea’s GDP per capita averaged approximately four percent per annum for the period, GDP for Koreans decreased because Japanese businesses, government, and Korean collaborators expropriated massive amounts of crops, natural resources, and manufactured goods. Also, there were environmental as well as economic costs; lumber clear-cut from the mountains of Korea was taken by Japanese companies, leaving behind much destruction and resulting in widespread land erosion in Korea.[4]

The Pacific War intensified Japanese exploitation of both Korea’s economy and Koreans as several million men were drafted to work as slave laborers in Imperial Japan, Japanese colonies, and Japanese-occupied nations, and to serve in the Imperial Army as prison guards and in other servile positions. Thousands of Korean “Comfort Women” were forced to service the Japanese military. In 1944, approximately four million Koreans, sixteen percent of the population, were living outside of Korea. Several million never returned.[5]

Even though by the end of World War II, Korea was, after Japan, the second most industrialized nation in Asia, the human costs of the colonial period were massive, and most Koreans were poor and uneducated.[6] However, the seeds for modernization had been planted. The self-serving human capital investment Japan made in some Koreans would eventually have positive unintended consequences. The relatively bright institutional story of the South’s economy and its people follows.

One Peninsula: Two Koreas

As the war with Japan was ending, in August 1945, the U.S. State Department charged two American officers with the task of dividing the peninsula into an American and a Soviet occupation zone. They chose the 38th parallel. This decision gave control of Seoul to the Americans, and to everyone’s surprise, the Soviets agreed.[7] In 1948, under a United States–Soviet trusteeship, South and North Korea officially became two countries governed by two different political systems—the Republic of Korea and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, respectively.[8]

War erupted on the peninsula only two years after country separation and less than five years after being released from Japan’s hostile grip. On June 28, 1950, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, after assurances of Soviet and Chinese support, invaded the South. In reaction, with the Soviet member absent and unable to vote, the UN Security Council created an international force led by the U.S. to wage war against the North. At first, North Korean military forces were able to control most of the ROK, but a successful landing of U.S.-led UN forces at Inchon paved the way for a counterattack that destroyed most of the North Korean army and resulted in UN forces occupying much of North Korea. In November 1950, forces from the People’s Republic of China authorized by Mao Zedong intervened in the war and helped North Korea push U.S. forces south of the 38th parallel. The subsequent fighting over the next two years produced no decisive victor.[9]

The Korean Armistice Agreement ended the Korean War on July 27, 1953. In an “Agreement between Commander-in-Chief of the United Nations Command, and the Supreme Commander of the Korean People’s Army and the Commander of the Chinese People’s Volunteers, the Korean Demilitarized Zone was established.”[10] This agreement created a two-kilometer buffer on each side of the 38th parallel. North of the buffer zone, the use of air, ground, and sea military support would be permitted under the leadership of Kim Il-sung on behalf of North Korea as long as the support was not deemed hostile. Likewise, in the South, similar military efforts could advance in tandem with efforts to govern democratically.

The Korean War devastated both economies. North Korea was the target of extensive aerial bombardment, and the South was engulfed by the land war. Additionally, Seoul, the capital of the South, changed hands four times as the opposing sides took and were then forced out of the city. Over one million people in the ROK alone were killed. According to estimates prepared for the United Nations, the devastation to the South Korean economy during the war years was approximately 3.03 billion USD, an amount almost equal to the combined value of all final goods and services the ROK produced in 1952 and 1953.[11]

South Korea: The Bright Peninsula

After the Korean War, South Korea struggled to launch its climb up the world’s development ladder and, for the most part, failed miserably for the first decade after the armistice. Land reform and education were two notable exceptions.

In 1945, prior industrialization notwithstanding, Korea was still a predominantly agrarian society with large landholders controlling the fortunes of peasant farmers. In the South, powerful landowners used political pressure to resist reform, but the combination of sweeping land reform in the North, fears of South Korean peasant unrest, and American political pressure influenced the Syngman Rhee government to pass land reform legislation in 1949. The land reform law was carried out during the Korean War and created a large number of entrepreneurial property owning small farmers. In 1944, 3 percent of the population in the South owned 64 percent of the land, but by 1956, the top 6 percent of landholders owned only 18 percent of the land. Inequities caused by traditional Korean feudalism and Japanese colonialism were addressed, and former and still-existing large landowners were incentivized to invest in business or education.[12]

South Korea’s human capital (education and training) levels immediately started rising after the Japanese withdrawal. In 1945, only 22 percent of South Koreans aged 15 and older could read and write, and less than five percent of adults had more than an elementary school education. With the Basic Education Law of 1949 under Rhee and the compulsory education requirements under Park, literacy rates rose steadily in South Korea, reaching a striking 88 percent by 1970 and an impressive 98 percent by 2013.[13]

Nevertheless, South Korea struggled to advance in the presence of Rhee’s import substitution policy. This trade and industrial policy was designed to reduce foreign dependence through the domestic production of manufactured goods. The increased production came at the expense of production in food and other basic necessities for South Koreans.

By controlling and restricting imports and forcing South Korea primarily to produce for domestic markets and selectively produce for exports, the government mandates of the Rhee regime placed South Korea at a competitive disadvantage both domestically and internationally. Import substitution policies denied South Korea access to readily available and less expensive resources, goods, and services around the world. Simultaneously, they forced domestic manufacturers to produce even when their costs were high or virtually impossible. The Rhee regime failed to take into account that South Korea now had very restrictive access to a substitute for the capital, investment, and management expertise once provided by the Japanese. The electrical power, metal, and chemical industries were now part of North Korea. The South had to start largely from scratch. Despite massive aid from the United States, even in 1963, World Bank statistics indicate that South Korea’s GDP per capita (current USD), at less than 142 USD, was significantly lower than Ghana (211 USD) and only moderately higher than India (103 USD).[14] As late as 1963, unemployment and poverty was the norm, and over 40 percent of the nation’s population was in absolute poverty.[15]

Many people were disgusted by both South Korea’s dysfunctional economy and the Rhee administration’s corruption. In 1960, a student-led revolution ousted Rhee, and a new “democratic” constitution and government was created. However, abysmal economic conditions including double-digit inflation fueled extensive demonstrations and societal chaos.

On May 16, 1961, General Park Chung-hee led a successful military coup d’état that silenced the unrest and ended the experiment with democracy.[16] One of his most famous quotations shows the depth of his desire for economic modernization: “For such poor people like the Koreans on the verge of near starvation, economics takes precedence over politics in their daily lives and enforcing democracy is meaningless.”[17] Still today, many South Koreans, particularly in the older generation, believe that Park’s suppression of political rights was an acceptable price to pay for the nation’s subsequent rapid and impressive economic growth, given the dire poverty the country experienced after the Korean War and during Japanese occupation.

A Powerhouse Emerges: South Korea and the Global Economy

Starting in the early 1960s, South Korea expanded its economy nearly twentyfold, becoming known as an “Asian tiger” in the process. International trade played a key role in South Korea’s rise.

At the beginning of the Park regime, real gross domestic product per capita was about 1,600 USD per person. Growth in production started when the import substitution policies of Rhee were abandoned, and South Korea was permitted to import goods, services, and resources that were otherwise in short supply. With the advantage of relatively low cost access to waterways, South Korea successfully pursued a strategy of export-led growth fueled by the world’s demand for Korean products. In the 1960s, South Korea possessed a comparative advantage in producing and exporting garments, textiles, and other items in industries requiring a relatively unskilled labor force. As the education and training landscape advanced, production and export efforts intensified in the heavy industries including, but not limited to, shipbuilding, electronics, chemicals, metal, and iron.

Increased access to the world’s marketplace and Korean production of goods and services based on what South Korea could offer to its trading partners at relatively lower per unit cost fueled economic growth and prosperity. By 1980, real GDP per capita increased five-fold to 5,539 USD.

More open markets helped South Korea gain access to millions of new producers and consumers. The peninsula now had more cost effective means to secure the resources required for building the infrastructure, industries, and cities that eventually became trademarks of developed nations. Meanwhile, foreign aid from the United States and some loanable funds from Japan and other countries flowed into South Korea, boosting opportunities to build new capital and expand the industrial base. These flows helped the nation overcome traditionally low savings and investment rates.[18]

Park established an Economic Planning Board (EPB) in 1961. The EPB mobilized domestic labor and other production inputs by tapping into the concentrated resource and mobilization capabilities of the Korean chaebŏl.[19] These family-owned businesses possessed low cost access to human and capital resources owned by families, relatives, and friends.

Since that time, the South Korean economy moved toward relatively open trade with export-led growth in key industries. Subsidies, tax breaks, low-interest loans, and political favors, though, did go to those exporters favored by the EPB. Foreign funds also flowed into Korea and toward the favored industries.[20] Under government directives, expressways were built to transport and distribute goods, thus lowering transaction costs throughout Korea. The net benefits from this growth were widely distributed, as evidenced by the increased GDP per capita, improved educational opportunities, and improved living standards.

In the 1970s, threats of U.S. troop withdrawals and changes in the international environment, such as President Nixon’s visit to China in 1972, caused the Park administration to intensify domestic production in the heavy and chemical industries for military reasons out of fear that North Korea would invade. For example, machinery and transport equipment jumped from 3.1 percent of all exports in 1965 to 13.8 percent in 1975.[21] Resources aided by questionable loans mandated by Park frantically shifted to the chaebŏl and caused worker unrest as well as demands for higher wages in other sectors of the economy. Internal political tensions escalated.

Inefficiencies arose and instability spread throughout the economy. The world’s oil shocks of the 1970s further pushed prices upward, causing persistent inflation. Meanwhile, Park used the possibility of North Korean attack to make himself a virtual dictator, and in 1974 outlawed all criticism of himself. In 1979, during a period of escalating political tensions, Park was assassinated by one of his own deputies. After a brief period of democratic reform, another army officer, General Chun Doo-hwan, seized power. The Korean government backed off of intense military production efforts in the heavy and chemical industries and took purposeful steps in moving away from favoring the large, family-owned conglomerates. In 1987, in the face of intense political pressure, the government changed the constitution and South Korea held its first national democratic elections.[22]

During the early 1980s, partnerships between the government and the Korean chaebŏl became more transparent, and government leadership advanced with market transformations on numerous levels. Specifically, deregulation occurred in the trade and financial sectors, leading to less concentration in the chaebŏl-driven industries, more business diversification across industries, and less central government involvement in production.[23] The economy rebounded, and growth in high technology industries took off. South Korea emerged as a world leader in the high tech industry with corporations like Samsung and Hyundai becoming household names. Between 1980 and 1997, real gross domestic product per capita increased by a remarkable 248 percent from 530 to 18,500 USD in 2011 according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Economics Research Database (FRED).

The 1997-98 Asian financial crisis brought the South Korean economy to its knees. After agreeing to become an even more open and transparent economy, South Korea accepted a 57 billion dollar bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Special attention was given to the foreign currency market and the role of the central government in development planning.[24] Consequently, government officials became more involved and increasingly more localized.[25]

The economic turmoil centering on the financial crisis sparked creative South Korean initiatives. The late President Kim Dae-jung led successful efforts to create a digital “Silk Road” cyber infrastructure, linking South Korea with Europe. Government control over domestic, export, and import markets were further relaxed. South Korean popular culture in music, e-sports, and TV soap operas became internationally successful. President Park Geun-Hye (2013-2017) gave official support through tax breaks and subsidies to the rise of the “creative economy,” aimed at boosting innovation and nurturing a startup culture in the country. South Korean policymakers have long been worried that its economy was too reliant on manufacturing, and through these new strategies, the government hopes to boost innovation in industries such as software and high tech.[26]

Today, South Korea is the world’s thirteenth largest economy, with a per capita income of about 30,000 USD and is a world leader in shipbuilding and in manufacturing consumer electronics and cars.[27] Not only Koreans, but also people throughout the world benefit from South Korea’s economic achievements. In short, South Korea made significant progress in opening its economy to the world, and it continues to serve as a leader in helping nations successfully lift people up and out of poverty.

North Korea: The Dark Peninsula

Starting with a population of approximately half of that of South Korea’s 20 million, North Korea outperformed the South for eight years after the 1953 armistice.[28],[29] With its sizable mineral resource base and an established massive industrialization program initiated under the Japanese occupation, the highly rigid dictatorship of the North forcibly marched the country forward. The size of the North Korean economy increased, largely thanks to aid from China and the Soviet Union. However, economic growth in the North was not sustainable. Close examination of the institutional structure of its economy explains why.

Since 1948, the three generations of Kim dictators have continually adhered to the tenets of a centrally planned economic system. The regime for the past few decades has given the highest resources priority to military spending. North Korea, with 1.2 million active duty military and 7.7 million reserves, has one of the world’s largest ground forces and is aggressively developing nuclear weapons and missiles.[30] Command and controlled mandates, directives, and regulations direct resources to manage the government-preferred sectors of the North Korean economy. Government leaders and policy planners decide what to produce, when to produce, for whom to produce, and under what circumstances. International trade is strictly limited to that trade permitted by government. It is denied to the general populace. Most transactions among the masses are non-pecuniary.

North Korea’s Juche (self-reliance) policy has failed dramatically. While reports indicate that per capita gross national product in North Korea initially grew at a faster rate than that of the South after the Korean War, its economy faltered and rates of growth in most industrial sectors began to fall behind those in parallel industries of the South. Economists from Adam Smith to Douglass North to Hernando de Soto can explain why.

National economies are too big and complex for central planners to exclusively manage. Central planners simply do not have the knowledge, expertise, and skills to know what works and what does not when, where, and at what price. Consider the trials and tribulations of South Korea’s economic development.

Plus, ordinary people in a centrally planned economy have no incentive to assist in boosting production and mobilizing resources, especially when they do not possess any level of secure personal rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Knowing that any fruits from their efforts are likely be confiscated, why would they efficiently use scarce resources, readily respond to market changes, strategically invest for the future, and prudently save for tomorrow?

In the absence of a stable government that protects property rights and allows individuals to freely move in and out of markets, economic growth and prosperity are not possible over the long run. The collapse of prior totalitarian communist economies provides corroborating evidence that helps explain North Korea’s abysmal economic conditions. The North Korean economy shrank as the Soviet Union crumbled. North Korea turned to China but, in the early 1990s, China scaled down aid and exports to North Korea. In the early 1990s, long-term central planning mistakes resulted in primarily a man-made famine that claimed the lives of 600,000 to one million people.[31]

Additionally, the continued deterioration in the overall health and wealth of the economy in North Korea gives stronger credence to the correlation between failing economic health and a shrinking communist presence. Apparently, even many North Korean soldiers suffer from malnourishment.[32]

Economic data from North Korea is famously unreliable. The government does not want its economy to be researched or indexed. With that said, a recent statistical compilation based upon multiple sources does paint a grim picture. Average individual annual incomes are approximately a little under one-thirtieth of that of South Koreans; average height is about 5 inches shorter, and weight is 15 pounds lighter in the North than in the South; life expectancy at birth is ten years less in the North than in the South; 26.2 percent of North Korean infants die at birth compared to less than 3 percent of infants in South Korea; and South Korean annual global exports and imports total well over one trillion USD, while North Korean global exports and import totals are about 8.7 billion USD. The North Korean economy has depended upon significant international aid, especially food, including support from South Korea. It depends on Chinese imports of military goods, weapons, energy, nuclear reactors, and for illegal exports (counterfeit currency and drugs).[33]

Sporadic reports on the situation in North Korea indicate marginal progress on the economic policy front. Overall, conditions have improved somewhat from their disastrous lows of the 1990s. The main reason provided is that some trading is being allowed in private markets. Survey studies conducted with North Korean refugees in South Korea indicate that a large majority of the population now turn to others, not the state, for access to food.[34]

As China advances in the world economy, its trading partners place in clear question the rationality of China’s ongoing support for North Korea. China’s trade with the rest of the world is increasingly brisk. In late November 2016, the United Nations Security Council, that includes China, unanimously placed sanctions on North Korea because of its continual nuclear testing and outwardly condemned the active testing of ballistic missile technologies and nuclear weapons.[35] The China-North Korean relationship appears increasingly fragile as China claims it has stopped importing coal from North Korea in support of the UN sanctions, although there are skeptics.[36] Will China-North Korean relations continue to diminish?

Conclusion

Institutions matter, especially those that facilitate economic growth for any nations. Despite sharing a common culture for most of the history of the Korean Peninsula, South and North Korea could not be more different in quality of life today. South Korea’s economy and society, like any nation, face significant challenges. However, people in the South benefit from a democratic government, a market economy that they, in large part, created, and they derive great benefit from their major role in the global economy. As long as North Korean institutions remain unchanged, most ordinary North Koreans are doomed to a life of poverty, uncertain personal security, and isolation from most of the world.

Teaching Resources

A plethora of teaching resources on related topics exist. These resources promise to deepen and broaden understanding on the institutional differences between North and South Korea and explain why these institutional differences matter to the people living in each country as well as to those individuals interested in the health and wealth of the Korean people. Use these resources to engage students by pointing to key primary sources, referencing high quality materials, and using teacher tested and student approved lesson plans. A few examples follow.

  • Economic Development: The Case of South Korea. Stanford Program on International and Cross-Cultural Education (SPICE) SPICE-sales@stanford.edu

This four lesson curriculum guide with video resources is comprehensive and intended for high school classes.

By following the above link and selecting “Volume 18:3 (Winter 2013): Central Asia” from the “Browse TOC” dropdown menu, teachers and students can access for no charge seven articles on the Korean economy that are in this special section.

This excellent high school lesson introduces students to societal choices on how to organize economic activity and the accompanying costs and benefits.

This site allows students to track, download, graph, and make their own calculations to determine rates of growth in real GDP per capita in South Korea during any period of interest between 1960 and 2011 (discontinued). The data series is in 2011 U.S. dollars.

This interactive map allows students to track, download, graph, and make their own calculations regarding changes in a country’s economic freedom index and match them against changes to freedom indicators, including the size of government, freedom to trade internationally, sound money, regulation, legal system, and property rights.

In this five-minute-seventeen-second video, economist Tyler Cowen provides an ideal introduction to the impact of differing institutions on the North Korean and South Korean economies.

The authors would like to thank University of Tennessee at Chattanooga graduate student Nancy Asplund for her assistance with the preparation of this article.

*About the authors:
Tawni H. Ferrarini
serves as the Sam M. Cohodas Professor in economics at Northern Michigan University.

Lucien Ellington is Senior Fellow at FPRI’s Wachman Center and UC Foundation Professor of Education at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. Ellington is also director of the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga Center for Reflective Citizenship (founded in 2011).

Source:
This article was published by FPRI.

Notes:
[1] Byung-Nak Song, The Rise of the Korean Economy (Hong Kong: Oxford University Press, 1990), 35-37.

[2] Donald N. Clark, Korea in World History (Ann Arbor, MI: Association for Asian Studies, Inc., 2012), 36.

[3] Carter J. Eckert et al., Korea Old and New: A History (Seoul: ILCHOKAK Publishers, 1990), 266.

[4] Byung-Nak Song, The Rise of the Korean Economy (Hong Kong: Oxford University Press, 1990), 37-45.

[5] Eckert et al., Korea Old and New, 322.

[6] “Korea as a Colony of Japan, 1910-1945.” Asia for Educators. (New York: Columbia University). Accessed March 16, 2017, http://afe.easia.columbia.edu/main_pop/kpct/kp_koreaimperialism.htm.

[7] Eckert et al., Korea Old and New, 334-335.

[8] “US Enters the Korean Conflict,” Accessed on March 16, 2017 at https://www.archives.gov/education/lessons/korean-conflict.

[9] Clark, Korea in World History, 44-45.

[10] Transcript of Armistice Agreement for the Restoration of the South Korean State (1953), accessed on March 20, 2017, https://www.ourdocuments.gov/doc.php?doc=85&page=transcript

[11] Frank Jr, Charles R., Kwang Suk Kim, and Larry E. Westphal. “Economic Growth in South Korea since World War II.” In Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: South Korea. (National Bureau of Economic Research, 1975), 11.

[12] Michael J. Seth, “An Unpromising Recovery: South Korea’s Post-Korean War Economic Development: 1953-1961,” Education About Asia 18, no. 3 (2013).

[13] Michael J. Seth, Education Fever: Society, Politics, and the Pursuit of Schooling in South Korea, (Honolulu: University of Hawaiʻi Press, 2002), 2; Education News, “The World’s Most Educated Countries,” last modified January 28, 2013, http://www.educationnews.org/higher-education/most-educated-countries/.

[14] “GDP per capita (current USD),” The World Bank, accessed April 4, 2017, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=1964&locations=IN-GH-KR&start=1960.

[15] Zhiqun Zhu, Understanding East Asia’s Economic “Miracles”: Key Issues in Asian Studies (Ann Arbor: Association for Asian Studies, 2016), 26.

[16] Clark, Korea in World History, 48.

[17] Rafael Di Tella, Huw Pill, and Ingrid Vogel, Institutions, Macroeconomics, and the Global Economy Casebook (Singapore: World Scientific Publishing, 2005), 512.

[18] Andrea Matles Savada and William Shaw, editors. South Korea: A Country Study. Washington: GPO for the Library of Congress, 1990. Accessed on March 16, 2017, http://countrystudies.us/south-korea/56.htm

[19] Edman, Jonas, Grace MyHyun Kim, and Rylan Sekiguchi, Economic Development: The Case of South Korea (Stanford: Stanford Program on International and Cross-cultural Education (SPICE), 2015), 63.

[20] Hong Eun-joo, Lee Eun-hyung, and Yang Jae-chan, The Korean Miracle: Narratives of the Korean Economic Miracle 1 (Seoul: Cengage Learning Korea Ltd, 2016) 45.

[21] Song, The Rise of the Korean Economy, 104.

[22] Clark, Korea in World History, 50.

[23] Kwangshik Shin,Policy Agenda and Direction of Chaebŏl Reform,” Korean Development Institute, Accessed October 24, 2016, http://www.kdi.re.kr/kdi_eng/publication/publication_view.jsp?pub_no=251&pg=3&tema=E4&pp=10.

[24] Kim Kihwan, “The 1997-98 Korean Financial Crisis: Causes, Policy Response, and Lessons,” (paper presented at The High-Level Seminar on Crisis Prevention in Emerging Markets Organized by The International Monetary Fund and The Government of Singapore, Singapore, July 10-11, 2006).

[25] Kwang-ho Kim, “Reconsidering the Goal and Strategy of Regional Development Policy in Korea,” KDI Journal of Economic Policy (2010), accessed November 16, 2016, http://www.kdi.re.kr/kdi_eng/publication/other_article_policy.jsp?pub_no=11460&art_no=1905&mcd=002008.

[26] See, for example, Sean Connell, ”Building a Creative Economy in South Korea: Analyzing the Plans and Possibilities for New Economic Growth,” Academic Paper Series, Korea Economic Institute of America, December 2013, http://www.keia.org/sites/default/files/publications/kei_creative_economy.pdf.

[27] Global Sherpa, “Korea – Country Profile, News and Original Articles,” Accessed on March 21, 2016, http://globalsherpa.org/korea-south-north/

[28] Population statistics are retrieved on South Korea at http://www.populstat.info/Asia/skoreac.htm and on North Korea at http://www.populstat.info/Asia/nkoreac.htm.  Accessed on April 24, 2017.

[29] “North Korean Intentions and Capabilities With Respect to South Korea (Report). CIA. 21 September 1967. p. 4. SNIE 14.2-67. Accessed March 16, 2017, https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/DOC_0001218147.pdf

[30] Georgia McCafferty, “Anniversary parade provides rare glimpse into North Korea’s military might,” CNN, October 10, 2015, accessed March 29, 2017, http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/09/asia/north-korea-military-might/.

[31] “The North Korean Famine and Its Demographic Impact.” Population and Development Review 27(2): 219–38. GoodkindDaniel, Loraine West, and Peter Johnson. 2011.

[32] McCafferty, “Anniversary parade.”

[33] The Guardian, “South v North Korea: how do the two countries compare? Visualized,” accessed November 16, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/world/datablog/2013/apr/08/south-korea-v-north-korea-compared; Daniel Schwekendiek, “Height and weight differences between North and South Korea,” Journal of Biosocial Science 41, no. 1 (2009): 51-55.

[34] See, for example, Marcus Noland and Stephan Haggard, Witness to Transformation: Refugee Insights into North Korea (Washington, D.C.: Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2010).

[35] Guy Taylor and Dave Boyer, “China joins U.S., allies in sanctions on North Korea,” CNN, November 30, 2016, accessed March 29, 2017, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/nov/30/china-joins-us-allies-in-sanctions-on-north-korea/.

[36] Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein, “Is China Serious About Banning North Korean Coal?” The Diplomat, February 21, 2017, accessed March 29, 2017, http://thediplomat.com/2017/02/is-china-serious-about-banning-north-korean-coal/.

Macedonia Braces For More Violence After Parliament Riot

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By Sinisa Jakov Marusic

After Thursday’s rampage in parliament left more than 100 people injured, police have boosted security around the building, anticipating more protests by VMRO DPMNE supporters, set for Friday.

After Macedonia’s parliament canceled Friday’s session due to damage caused by rioters, heavily equipped riot police were deployed in front of the building in anticipation of more protests on Friday afternoon.

On Friday, the Interior Ministry said 102 people had been treated in hospital, including 10 MPs, journalists and police officers. The head of the opposition Social Democrats, SDSM, Zoran Zaev, was among the injured, with blood pouring down his face.

Media reported that Zijadin Sela, the MP who appeared to be among those worst injured during the storming of the parliament, was out of danger.

Sela, leader of the opposition ethnic Albanian DPA – Movement for Reforms, sustained head concussion and fractures and is still recuperating in hospital.

Police accused of failing to do their job:

Provisional Interior Minister Agim Nuhiu on Friday accused the police of failing to do their job and prevent the violence in parliament.

He offered his resignation, as he said out of moral reasons, for not succeeding in four months in office in eliminating political influence in the police.

Nuhiu, who comes from the ethnic Albanian Democratic Union for Integration, DUI, a party that is part of the new parliamentary majority, said he suspected that some parts of the police had deliberately stayed passive for a long time in order to let the violent crowd enter the parliament.

He named Mitko Cavkov, head of the Public Safety Bureau, which controls the uniformed police, for not doing his duty. Cafkov comes from the former ruling VMRO DPMNE party whose supporters stormed the parliament.

Nuhiu said that despite being head of the operational HQ in charge of dealing with potential violence, Cavkov was not in the HQ for two hours after the violence started, nor did he respond to the minister’s telephone calls.

“Some of the [police] employees, instead of respecting the law and carrying out their duties, act on orders coming from political centres. This must be sanctioned,” Nuhiu claimed.

Cavkov did not reply to the accusations.

On Friday, the Ombudsman Ixhet Memeti also pinpointed the responsibility of the police.

“The Ombudsman’s office criticizes the passivity of the police who, evidently from yesterday’s video footage, although present, failed to react and allowed the violence, while journalists were prevented from doing their job,” the Ombudsman said.

The violence began just after 6pm local time after a majority of 67 MPs in the 120-seat parliament elected a new speaker, Talat Xhaferi – the first step towards establishing a new opposition-led coalition government.

The VMRO DPMNE party, which has been trying to prevente the election of a new speaker and a new government for a month, called the move unlawful and an “attempted coup”.

Police intervened only after 8pm when they shut off the electricity in the building and used stun grenades to drive the crowd out of the parliament and evacuate MPs and journalists.

Several news outlets, including Radio Free Europe, Meta news agency, Telma TV, Radio MOF and 24 news TV, reported that their journalists and cameramen were physically attacked or their equipment has been destroyed by protesters.

Deliberately attempt to ‘murder’ MPs

At a press conference on Friday, SDSM leader Zaev said that what happened was a “deliberate attempt to murder” a number of targeted MPs.

“What happened yesterday was not a result of angry individuals. The violence is a result of the remainders of the crumbling regime which in the past ten years has been violating the constitution and democracy in this country,” Zaev said, singling out VMRO DPMNE leader Nikola Gruevski, President Gjorge Ivanov, former speaker Trajko Veljanoski and the head of the Public Safety Bureau, Mitko Cavkov, as initiators of the violence.

He said the new majority had made “a big step forward in the democratic processes” by electing a new speaker on Friday and that “these processes will continue until the formation of a new reform-oriented government”.

In a televised address delivered just past midnight, VMRO DPMNE leader Gruevski blamed the SDSM and the parties who supported the new parliamentary majority for causing the violence.

The SDSM “had consciously decided to break the law, the constitution and the parliament rule book, thus directly causing the events [in the parliament], and they bear responsibility for them,” Gruevski said, adding, however, that he condemned the violence.

“I want to condemn the violence done by individuals who attacked and injured a number of MPs. I have never justified violence,” Gruevski said.

Gruevski said his party would announce soon the next steps it plans to take in preventing the formation of what he called an illegitimate government.

Russia, Azerbaijan And Armenia FMs Discuss Nagorno-Karabakh

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The Foreign Ministers of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, Sergey Lavrov, Elmar Mammadyarov and Edward Nalbandian, met Friday in Moscow on Russia’s initiative.

According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, the foreign ministers continued the discussion on the prospects for progress in the negotiation process on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, emphasizing the need to implement the agreements reached at the Vienna and St Petersburg summits in April and June 2016.

Location of Nagorno-Karabakh. Source: Wikipedia Commons.
Location of Nagorno-Karabakh. Source: Wikipedia Commons.

The Azerbaijani and Armenian Foreign Ministers expressed their gratitude to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov for his efforts to promote a peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The ministers agreed to continue their contact on all the issues discussed, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry.

Following their tripartite talks, the foreign ministers met with the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group – the ambassadors of Russia, the United States and France, as well as the representative of the OSCE Chairman, where they exchanged views on the status of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.

India: Hindutva Threatens Democracy – OpEd

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Wedged at the base of a huge land mass that comprises seven countries, including the world’s most populated (China), India has always stood out due to its markedly distinctive qualities of democracy and secularism.

None of the countries – China, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Bhutan – that claim to be geographical neighbors of India is a democracy in the true sense of the word. Though figuratively Pakistan and Bangladesh are democracies as far as going through the ritual of elections are concerned, the real power in Pakistan rests with military, while Bangladesh is fast becoming a one-woman, one-party show.

However, with the ascent of Hindu Bhajpa since 1980s, India today stands at the cross-roads. Its deadly embrace of Hindutva (Hindu nationalism) means that it has willingly shed its diverse colors in favor of saffron and it is at the moment well-poised to push secularism, poly-culturalism and inclusiveness aside. In a country of 1.2 billion where more than 25 percent practice other religions than Hindu and where more than 800 languages and dialects mingle, cultural diversity and secularism were the only magic wands that worked for India for centuries and especially for the last 70 years of independence.

In 1947, India was carved out in its present geographical state by the British because the Muslims in the east and center claimed they were a separate nation so they must be given a separate state. The founding fathers of India vehemently resisted the move saying that India was not a homogeneous entity as a range of religions, cultures and languages co-existed for centuries so suddenly there was no room for narrow nationalism. Ever since Indian forefathers have argued that despite the fact that part of India was chopped off to create a Muslim state, it survived because its democracy and secularism were working well. The Indian politicians also pointed to a fact that the land and the people that were carved out could not stay united despite claiming to be a one-nation, so the entire two-nation theory was nothing more than a fallacy. People around the world listened and many agreed.

Every student of political science knows that democracy is a double-edged sword. You can use it to include and you can use it to exclude. From a functional system of politics, it can quickly turn into a tool of submission used by a brute majority against a minority. When that happens the only line of defense is institutions of state like parliament and supreme court. However, when parliament looks set to look the other way and courts and judiciary look to ride out the storm without erecting enough safeguards, then in most cases than none, the worst case scenario becomes a reality.

Geopolitically, despite its close proximity with the USSR during the Cold War, the vibes of secularism, democracy and free market coming out of India, acted like a neutral vibes in the region that is traditionally ruled by dictators. No matter how hard the life was as both the United States and China were arch enemies and were supporting its eternal foe Pakistan, India kept on holding the lofty ideals of democracy and secularism afloat.

Fast forward. India is still managing to chug along the rail-road of democracy even if the pace and texture of this democracy is under a decisive pall of gloom as Hindu Zealots have a nice chunk of seats in the parliament and religious tensions covered up thus far by the democracy and secularism have sprung to the fore. The proponents and champion of secularism are outshouted by Hindu extremists who are bent upon creating a Hindu state in the world much on the lines of Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Pakistan. However, no one bothered to note in this cacophony, that all the above mentioned religious states are homogeneous with marginalized religious minorities while the proposed Hindu state is home to 400 million minorities speaking different languages and dialects and at various levels of economic empowerment.

The situation is fraught with dire geopolitical consequences. Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan are more or less theocracies which are unstable and incoherent socially. All three have competing regional agendas that can trigger the dreadful spark. A peaceful, socially stable, democratic and secular India would have a calming influence over this volatile region. Its trade alliance with China would have had the potential to lift the entire region out of poverty. The more it embraces Hinduism, the more regional opposition it would attract and the more socially unstable it would become.

The separatist movements in Kashmir and north-east would find willing ears in world capitals which may trigger isolation.

India doesn’t have a land route to central Asia and Europe. The path is infested with countries that are predominantly Muslim. A secular India would have tilted the equation in its favor. But now it’s China that is taking the lead in connecting Europe with Asia through land by re-inventing the old silk route. Moving forward, India doesn’t have many choices but to revert to ideals of secularism and democracy as both are inter-dependent.

*Mohammed Rizwan is a professional journalist for the last 23 years 1990-2014 covering politics and terrorism from Pakistan and Dubai.

Waning ‘Make In India’ Warrants Import Substitution To Reboot Initiative – Analysis

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Why is Make in India loosing steam? Was it eulogized with fanfare when it was launched in September 2014? Two years have passed and Make in India continues to reel under uncertainty. It did not make any headway in the growth of manufacturing trajectory. Production growth hovers around 2 percent, despite high GDP growth in the country (7 percent ). Exports has been flat and investment by the private sector has dwindled. Additionally, the stock market wades in volatility.

Given the lackluster progress, the government re-launched an import substitution program – a pre-WTO protectionist measure — to inject a new lease of life in the Make in India initiative. With a press note issued by Ministry of Urban Development, the government made it mandatory to procure railway equipment for metro projects from domestic sources. According to the policy, a minimum of 75 percent of metro coaches and critical signaling equipment are to be procured from domestic sources by the Central and State level metro project authorities.

To allure the investors, it said that the country would require 1,600 coaches over a three year period, in addition to 1,400 coaches, which are under different stages of procurement. Nine types of signaling equipment were identified for 75 percent mandatory procurement from domestic sources. Besides, indigenization of several metro functions has been prescribed, relating to communication system, operational and disturbances, time table preparation, control traction power and others.

Currently, there are eight metro rail transport systems under operation. The country is on metro rail service binge for rapid and environment free transport services. About 27 more metro services are under implementation and planning stages, which are to be launched by 2028.

At present, there are three companies to manufacture metro coaches in the country. The fourth Chinese company is setting up plant in Nagpur. Ironically, this time the import substitution is to protect none other than foreign subsidiaries in the country. Of the three, two are foreign subsidiaries.

Why has Make in India failed to accomplish the aspiration of the country, which aimed to make it a global hub for manufacturing? The fault lies with the road map of the initiative. The campaign missed policy initiative to put it in action. The policy makers targeted 25 industries at one stroke to perk up India’s overall manufacturing growth and raise manufacturing share in GDP from 15 percent to 22 percent by 2022. The 25 industries include both modern and traditional industries.

The challenges and approaches to develop modern and traditional industries are different. While the development of modern industries embodies sectorial development of component / parts and assembly operation, coexisted in the manufacturing processes, the traditional industries warrant for refurbishment to cope with changing pattern of demand. For example, challenges for development of modern industries like electronics, automobile, telecommunication are different from the development of traditional industries like textiles, agro-based and handicraft industries

The Make in India campaign was silent on different approaches and policy drives required for the development of modern and traditional industries. While development of traditional industries requires re-furbishment as a first step, owing to changing pattern of the demand, development of modern industry requires creation of an harmonious relation between SMEs (small and medium scale) and assembly operating companies. To this en , development of traditional industries requires policy support, including fiscal incentives and marketing support and modern industries require policy support for R&D and development of contract manufacturing.

Further, the attempt to develop the 25 industries at one stroke missed the priority base development. Today, with digitization gaining prominence in ease of doing business, electronic manufacturing should have been given more priority than traditional industries.

The campaign was made based on the existing policies. It did not offer any new fiscal incentives. It was acknowledged by a Parliamentary panel , which assessed the impact of Make in India on SMEs. It said that appropriate approaches should be made for the revival of capital goods industry, which is the main pillar for growth of manufacturing. It recommended for suitable subsidy to be given for the growth of capital goods industry.

Fiscal incentives have been the core demand of the investors. At 33 percent corporate taxes and a 26-28 percent custom duty, business taxes are one of the highest in India. The campaign highlighted ease of doing business, without specifying as to how to do away the main barriers such as land acquisition, non- transparent tax system, fiscal incentives and reluctance to open multi-brand retail to the foreign investors. Even the developed nations USA and Japan, who are on the binge to re-built America First and Invest Japan, are contemplating fiscal incentives .

Tax incentive has always been the main tool for China to attract foreign investment. In the initial stage of reform, China granted special tax incentive to the foreign investors over the domestic investors. China continued fiscal incentives as an important tool in the second stage of reform also.

The Government reposed high hope on defense sector as the engine for Make in India. Defense manufacturing was opened to foreign investment. India is the biggest importer of defense equipment in the world. It spends a big chunk of Budget expenditure for the purchase of defense equipment. Despite these, opening FDI in defense received lukewarm responses from the foreign investors. During the past two years, insignificant amount of FDI flowed in defense manufacturing.

Will the return of import substitution provoke pro-globalization? The first shock wave will go to China. Chinese President Xi Jinping is reckoned the global leader for driving the globalization after USA reverts to protectionism under the Trump administration. At the Davos summit, he taunted against anti-globalization saying “blaming economic globalization is not in consistent with reality”, presumably throwing salvo to US President Donald Trump.

China is the biggest trade partner of India. At the same time, China is the major creator of India’s wide trade deficit. One-fifth of India’s world trade deficit is engineered by Chinese dumping of goods. To this end, India’s return to import substitution, presumably meaning adoption of protectionism, will likely impact on the new trend of India- China economic engagement. Either the import substitution movement may raise ire from Chinese President, or it will elevate Chinese investment in India.

(Views are personal)

Saudi Arabia: Economy Continues To Struggle – Analysis

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The rent-based economy in Saudi Arabia has shown its limits since the drop of oil prices in 2014. Indeed, the country is potentially explosive: the current fiscal model is not sustainable, the geopolitical environment is increasingly hostile and the country has a rapidly growing population, of which 30% of 16-24 year olds find themselves unemployed. The economic choices in the years to come, and the success of the reforms announced by the government will be decisive for the survival of the regime.

For too long, Saudi Arabia’s economy has relied solely on oil for its revenues. Until 2014, oil exploitation was responsible for 90% of Saudi Arabia’s public revenues, 80% of its exports revenues and 40% of its GDP. But from 2014 to 2015, oil revenues dropped by 50%, and represented only 73% of the total revenues compared to 87% the year before. In the meantime, the government didn’t reduce its expenses, because of its military interventions in Yemen and Syria, but also because of the outstanding individual premiums given by the government. Following the Arab Spring, the government has increased its social expenses in order to buy social peace.

To tackle the economic difficulties, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman announced, on the April 26, 2016, an ambitious set of reforms, titled “Vision 2030” that aimed at weaning the kingdom off oil by curbing public spending, diversifying the economy and attracting foreign investment.

The government is conscious of the necessity to reform the economic system, but will it be able to do it without causing social turmoil? With a decline in social spending and a reduction in subsidies comes the risk of rising domestic turmoil, as highlighted by the Arab Spring in 2011. The risk is increased by the fact that half of the population is under 25, and 30% of young people are unemployed. This inactive youth is also among the most active in the world on the social media and might show their frustration through media outlets. Will the government be able to take the gamble of social change?

Saudi Arabia has shown pragmatism when it promised a 4.6% cut in production on November 30, 2016. This measure was necessary since its plan to modernize the economy and privatize Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, depends on oil prices. Paradoxically, Saudi Arabia needs higher oil prices to become less dependent on oil on the long term.

Other measures taken by the government include slashing salaries, and cutting benefits for public sectors employees. It has also cut huge subsidies for fuel, water and electricity that encourage over-consumption. However, the sudden jump of water bills spurred national dissatisfaction and an outcry on social media. Indeed, the minister of water and electricity was fired after telling customers to dig their own wells if they were unhappy with prices.

The government also abruptly cut construction projects forcing contractors to fire workers who didn’t hesitate to set fire on buses in protests demanding months of back pay. Despite these incidents, most austerity measures have been taken according to Capital Economics, a consultancy.

However, investors are waiting for more meaningful changes, which imply conjectural reforms and a transformation of the social structures. In order to increase the presence of Saudi nationals in the labor market, the government implements a politics of Saudization particularly in the private sector. For now, only 45% of jobs in Saudi Arabia are occupied by Saudis, and only 22% in the private sectors versus 67% in the public sector. Including them in the private sector is necessary to reduce unemployment, but also to cut public spending, since salaries in the public sector constitute the most expensive expenses of the State.

A “Saudization” of the labor market is necessary, but needs a complete transformation of student’s training. For now, most of them study humanities and social sciences and focus primarily on the study of the Koran. But it doesn’t bring them the necessary skills to work in a commercial environment. The politics of Saudization has vexed businesses who are forced to employ Saudi nationals, who often lack the skills that employers want. Consequently, to meet the government quotas, some companies simply pay locals to stay at home.

Moreover, the increase of the population presents new challenges. Six million people are going to join the labor market from now until 2040. Thus, job creation in the private sector is necessary, to prevent a rise of unemployment and the subsequent risk of social tensions. For now, the private sector does not offer enough good opportunities for the estimated 300,000 young people entering the work force each year, especially women. If nothing is done, the situation will become even more critical because of the important rise of the population.

“Vision 2030” shows that Saudi Arabia is conscious about the necessity to reform the country’s economy. Its cut in social spending, the plan to introduce a tax on expenses by 2018, and – more importantly — its plan to privatize the state oil company Saudi Aramco are very positive. However, too many measures, such as the plan to attract foreign investments, are still under study and lack details. The success of Saudi Arabia’s economic reforms is crucial to the West, who needs a stable Saudi Arabia in an already chaotic Middle East.

About the author:
*Ms. Elodie Pichon, Research Fellow of the IFIMES Institute, DeSSA Department. This native Parisian is a Master in Geopolitics, Territory and Security from the King’s College, London, UK.

Trump’s ‘Manufacturing Renaissance’ And The New Liberal Order – Analysis

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The election of Donald Trump as the new President of the United States is, in the view of advocates and critics, a game-changer. Spanning reshoring manufacturing jobs, taxation and infrastructure investments, President Trump’s political economy connotes a significant paradigm shift that in almost in one stroke plans a return to the real economy engine, and break off the era of US as the consumer of last resort.

In this context the “Manufacturing Renaissance”, as it is dubbed, plays the pivot of the new Administration’s economic paradigm, and is not only a political catchphrase.

Due to the new technologies to extract low-cost natural gas, energy by itself hands a substantial advantage to manufacturing based in US. Natural gas prices, according to The Boston Consulting Group, are calculated to be 90% higher in the United Kingdom, 180% higher in France, 190% higher in Germany, and 240% higher in Japan, and the industrial electricity prices 150% higher in France, 180% higher in the United Kingdom, 100% higher in Germany, and 150% higher in Japan than in the United States.

In sum, total manufactured costs vis-à-vis US peers group including France, Germany and Japan are respectively higher by 15% to 21% , and productivity-adjusted wages for US based manufacturing about 33% lower than Japan and 25% lower than Germany.

An energy boom and cheaper energy costs, notably natural gas, have been the single major factor in shrinking the US trade deficit, from 5.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2006 to 3 percent in 2015.

On the side of labor costs, US wages compared with emerging market economies in Asia, a preferred foreign direct investment destination of US multinationals, low wages are no more a boon. Since 2001, hourly manufacturing wages in China have been rising by an average of 12% a year, so the China’s wage advantage actually is thinning to a less 10 percent.

A sensible motive for returning jobs on the American soil. It lies on the assumption that manufacturing has a high employment multiplier, a large amount of ancillary jobs generated in other fields. Projections based on Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) calculated that a dollar’s worth of final demand for manufacturers generates $1.48 in other services and production. In contrast the retail and wholesale trade sectors have much lower multipliers, generating 54 cents and 58 cents respectively in other additional inputs for every dollar of economic activity they generate (Stephen Gold, MAPI 2014).

There is also a further reason for the “Manufacturing Renaissance” to play high in the new Administration’s political agenda: fix the high-powered political issue of the US current account deficit, which though since 6.4 percent of GDP in 2005, 800 billion dollars or 1.8 percent of the world GDP, has declined to a safe 2.6 percent of current-dollar GDP, it’s is still a high-powered political issue.

As Ghosh and Ramakrishnan of IMF wrote: “When countries run large deficits, businesses, trade unions, and parliamentarians are often quick to point accusing fingers at trading partners and make charges about unfair practices”.

Aside from goods and services, the current account is also influenced by a nation’s excess of investment over saving. Since the 80ties US gross saving has fallen as a share of GDP. Households, rather than firms, and government seem to be co-responsible for this trend. Moreover, while the decline in saving may reflect the decline in inflation, low interest rates, budgetary policies have also fueled what might seems a structural shortage of domestic finance available for productive investment.

Tensions between the United States and China over which should be held responsible for trade imbalances have urged to consider the broader consequences for the international financial system when some countries run large and persistent current account deficits and others accumulate big surpluses.
If these actions tell a story, it is that the U.S. political leaders are making the most of the Great Financial Crisis. Rebalancing America’s growth engine on real economy, US stubborn current account imbalance will return on a healthier and stable path.

Yet, this uplifting story has downsides.

For one, getting rid of trade deficit could have upshots on inflation rates, and even a flight to the dollar. Patrick Artus of Natixis has elaborated on the idea often floated of eliminating US non-energy trade deficit by means of taxation imports does not make sense. Besides the inflationary effects that will arise from customs duties, shrinking imports from foreign producers generates negative spillovers in US domestic investment.

Additionally, an US current account’s shrinkage will also spread via financial spillovers to emerging markets. As Andrew Sheng put it “the time will come when the U.S. economy shrinks its current account deficit and decreases dollar liquidity, creating a debt-deflation trap for the emerging world.”

A shrinking US current account deficit, a rising dollar matched to a flight-to-quality, and especially a reduction of U.S. dollar exports due to the US energy independence reduce the supply of dollars in the global economy. A serious question arises over what factors are likely to cause the US to rebalance the global economy, especially for those countries that most rely on the US dollar.

A reduction in the supply of dollars and a stronger dollar value, which are legitimate outcomes of national policymakers, are set to trigger a credit crunch and increase expenses for developing dollar-dependent economies with trade currencies and foreign reserves denominated in US dollars.

Emerging economies, which are still the most dollar-dependent, are set to take the brunt, as they are mostly required to pay for trade transactions in US dollars.

The above question is not negligible, given that emerging and developing economies dependent on the dollar make up more than half of global GDP, a liquidity crisis could not only hit emerging and developing economies. If it were to materialize, it would clearly cause a global economic contraction.

The gloomy scenario is evidence that the current monetary system is fated to fall under the gyrations of the US economic and monetary policy once again. Capital flows are still driven by rising dollar as episodes appeared since the Fed’s tapering, 2013, and recently in the wake of Fed’s rate hike and Trump’s win. The global financial drive of the dollar generates more harm than benefits. Capital outflows from emerging economies and even from Europe will eventually push central banks to increase interest rates at the detriment of the global economy.

What is the way out? The classical Triffin solution assumes that fixing the problem with an alternative reserve currency is inherently impossible, as “my currency, your problem” will fatally resurface. The only solution for him is a kind of synthetic “global currency” resulting from a balanced basket of major currencies.

Still, fresh evolutionary dynamics and geo-economic forces, which were lacking in the Sixties, are now influencing the trajectories of the international liberal order that the US created after the Second-War. New reserve currencies, the euro and the renminbi , could sooner than later take a central role in the current monetary arrangements, and reshape them into a more diverse and stable global monetary governance.

*About the authors:
Miriam L. Campanella
, University of Turin and ECIPE, Brussels.

Alberto Forchielli, Founder of Mandarin Capital Partners.


Kulbhushan Conviction And Rising Temperature In Indo-Pak Relations – OpEd

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Since the Indian Navy officer, Kulbhushan Yadav was given a capital punishment verdict by Field General Court Martial under the Pakistan Army Act and the Official Secrets Act, Indo-Pak relations have plunged.

Yadav can appeal against the capital punishment verdict to Pakistan’s Supreme Court within 60 days. He was indicted for secret activities, sabotage and espionage. Yadav had admitted before the court that he worked for the Indian intelligence agency Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) and that he was included in a few furtive exercises to create instability in Karachi and Baluchistan.

During the trial, Yadav was provided with a defending officer as per legal provision. It should be noted that Yadav was arrested by Pakistani intelligence agencies in March 2016 in Baluchistan. India reacted to this decision immediately by calling Pakistan’s High Commissioner Abdul Basit to the Ministry of External Affairs and gave him a demarche saying that the court procedures that prompted capital punishment of Yadav were “ludicrous” and it would consider it as “premature murder’. In the meantime, Sushma Swaraj cautioned  Pakistan to be responsible for the ‘outcome’.

The Yadav execution verdict precipitated heat in the political environment. It is not surprising that India is sponsoring terror in the country and then summons an ambassador to protest over the sentence of terrorists. This is the real face of the so-called largest democracy. Is India sponsoring terrorism on neighboring soil on one side and on the other trying to be innocent? The Yadav execution is a rational decision and Pakistan should never inch back from the verdict because terrorists neither have a religion nor state or nation. It would be better if Pakistan would do the same as India did with Kasab.

Kulbhushan Yadav is not the first RAW operative, caught snooping in Pakistan. Prior to Kulbhushan, a great number of Indian spies have been spotted and handcuffed during the course of the country’s enmity with Pakistan. The distinguished among dthe ozens of Indian spies caught in Pakistan was Ravindra Kaushik, who was sent across the border in 1975 on a mission at the age of 23 after extensive training in Delhi for two years and finally deported. India is playing a spy war against Pakistan more efficiently. Now it is important for Pakistan to be vigilant and implement Yadav’s punishment.

To complicate matters, a Pakistani Lt Col (R) Muhammad Habib Zahir has disappeared from Nepal which suggested that the spy war between India and Pakistan had intensified. It is believed that India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) abducted the retired lieutenant colonel as a retaliatory act to the conviction of Kulbhushan Yadav. Observers believe that India could use the abducted Pakistani retired army officer as a negotiating tool for the RAW specialist.

India relied upon the USA to take up the matter when the U.S. National Security Advisor McMaster visited India to meet PM Narendra Modi, Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj and Ajit Doval was intended to plan to raise the matter with his counterpart but the United States made it clear that it wouldn’t intercede in the matter. The Indian government has been contending on Pakistan’s claim on Yadav’s charged spying mission, entering Pakistan with original Indian visa as it was troublesome for India to reject.

Not surprisingly, the Indian response was prompt and cynical. There was furious feedback of the decision in the Indian media. Defense Minister Khawaja Asif quickly announced that the death sentence against Yadav would not be carried out quickly but law of land was followed. National Security Adviser and previous Army general Nasser Khan Janjua said that India and Pakistan can’t be adversaries perpetually and must take part in discourse to determine debate But Modi is vigorously into populism in view of disdain of Muslims. Therefore Indo-Pak relations are all weather hot.

India’s Minister of External Affairs, V. K. Singh reiterated that the Indian government was considering all steps to get access to Yadav. The case of Kulbhushan Yadav continues to remain at boiling point While India has postponed talks between the coast guards. The Indian spy war against Pakistan is going on and throbbing the future of the people living in the region.
Pakistan consistently maintained that the two governments need to start the comprehensive bilateral dialogue, as announced in December 2015 to resolve critical issues. The maritime talks, coupled with meetings mandated by Indus Waters Treaty, were a small beginning by both countries to move on after the bitter exchanges over Uri.

India was looking to mount yet another diplomatic offensive to save Yadav and the government was awaiting a response from Pakistan over its demand for a copy of the charge sheet against Yadav as it mulled options to secure his release. The government was contemplating a move like the one it launched last year after the Uri attack to “isolate” Pakistan but all efforts were in vain and Pakistan again arises with greater support of ECO countries.

Eventually, India and Pakistan are indulged in spy war. RAW is sabotaging activates in, should expect and accept the same response too. India executed Kasab and alleged with Pakistan; though he was terrorist but Yadav is serving Indian Naval officer. It is necessary to treat Yadav and Kasab on equal grounds and India should avoid supporting terrorism on neighboring soil.

*The writer is Research Affiliate at Strategic Vision Institute Islamabad and he can be reached at babar@thesvi.org/ babarkhanbozdar@yahoo.com.

Emerging Consistencies In Philippine Foreign Policy Amidst Continuing US-China Frictions – Analysis

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Although critics often point to the apparent discrepancies and unpredictability in Philippine foreign policy as expressed by its chief architect, President Rodrigo Roa Duterte, several emerging consistencies can be gathered.

In the same vein as other countries that opted not to spell out the specifics of their foreign policy strategy, especially on critical and sensitive issues, in order to have ample room for maneuver and negotiation, these incipient consistencies have yet to be formally articulated in a coherent form, more so applied in reference to a certain foreign policy priority.

Although not definitive, an appreciation of some of these nascent consistencies can give one a better outlook of the continuously evolving Philippine diplomacy. Furthermore, beyond his infamous rhetoric which surely played a lot in getting him Times’ 2017 Most Influential Person Award, Duterte’s actions, by and large, resonate as regional responses to the brewing US-China tussle.

Expanding economic ties with China

The first consistency is the desire to expand economic ties with China for obvious economic gains. With its achievements in infrastructure, manufacturing, agriculture, renewable energy, urban planning and development, poverty alleviation, technical and skills training, among others, expanding ties with China could have a transformative impact on the Philippine economy and society.

Accelerating infrastructure spending, easing restrictions on foreign asset ownership to attract greater foreign investments, and promoting agricultural productivity and rural tourism are key components of the Duterte Government’s 10-Point Socioeconomic Agenda. There is an apparent recognition that cooperation with China can play a critical role in helping the country realize these goals.

At present, China, the world’s second largest economy, is the country’s second largest trade partner – its largest source of imports and third largest export market. In fact, if combined, Mainland and Hong Kong shares make China top Japan as the Philippines’ largest external market. Substantial state participation and influence in the economy and intense nationalism make good political relations a sound foundation for robust economic ties. State-owned enterprises can be easily mobilized to support government directives and millions of Chinese tourists could be easily enticed to visit a country with which China has witnessed blossoming relations with of late.

In fact, the impact of improved relations was immediately felt – Duterte’s state visit to Beijing last October 2016 brought home $24 billion worth of loans and investments.

In addition, post-state visit, $100 million worth of Philippine fruits were bought by China last year and just last March, 18 Chinese firms placed a further $1.7 billion purchase order for Philippine agricultural and mineral products in a deal described by Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines, Zhao Jianhua, as a first time transaction in ASEAN. Furthermore, it is expected that inbound Chinese tourist arrivals will breach the 1 million mark this year. Indeed, the limits of economic benefits that can be derived from the return of spring after an extended winter in the bilateral relations rests not on China, but rather on Philippines’ absorptive capacity.

The desire to expand commercial ties with China is motivated by the realization that China has already displaced other major economies as the top provider of economic goods for the region.

In fact, based on 2015 ASEAN trade figures, the U.S. even comes fourth after Japan and EU in the rankings of Southeast Asia’s largest trade partners. After its withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the U.S. has yet to come up with a coherent economic agenda for the region to match, if not at least counterbalance, China’s unfolding Belt and Road Initiative and its supporting structures, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and Silk Road Fund.

So far, America’s Asia-Pacific engagement is heavy on security (e.g. North Korea, South China Sea) but remains hollow on economics, which is high in the priority of fast developing countries in the region. With an accomplished businessman in the White House, there was initial optimism that the U.S. will eventually resume an active economic profile in the region but worrying announcements about curbing immigration and job outsourcing/offshoring have only heightened concerns. Asian-Americans, including Filipino-Americans, like other immigrant communities, are anxious over Trump’s apparent position to discontinue Obama’s deportation deferment programs. Likewise, given considerably high regional production integration, Asian manufacturers and exporters are wary of the consequences of the U.S. addressing trade deficits with its economic partners.

Downplaying security ties with the U.S.

The second consistency is downplaying security cooperation with US, especially to the extent that it will affect the first consistency. Absent a robust regional economic agenda, engagement with the U.S. will tilt more towards security. As such, expectedly, regional countries will distance themselves from this engagement, if not keep such cooperation in low profile, so as not to antagonize their burgeoning economic relations with China.

Despite all the attention that it is getting of late, especially after the dispatch of U.S. aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson purportedly to send Pyongyang a strong message, North Korea’s nuclear and missile program is not high in the agenda of Southeast Asia. Freedom of commercial navigation, which remains unaffected despite recent daunting developments, is surely a shared regional interest, but not freedom of navigation for military ships and aircraft, which is fast becoming a theater for U.S.-China rivalry. The 2001 EP-3, 2009 USNS Impeccable, 2014 P8 Poseidon, and 2016 EP3 incidents form part of a growing list of U.S. surveillance or military signals gathering activities in waters and airspace near Hainan (which the U.S. considers to be international spaces) increasingly being challenged by China.

These incidents only heighten perception that the South China Sea (SCS) disputes are migrating from a territorial and maritime dispute between six claimants to a major power showdown between the U.S. and China. Southeast Asia would want no part in this contest, especially if actual hostilities, should tensions spiral out of control, take place in their backyard.

The Philippines is actually not alone in downplaying security cooperation with the U.S. and exploring security relations with China. Thailand-U.S. longstanding military cooperation has been downgraded since the 2014 coup and U.S.-Malaysia military relations is likewise being tested by recent challenges in their bilateral relations (e.g. U.S. investigation of the 1MDB controversy which involves Prime Minister Najib Razak).

Western criticisms (e.g. over Duterte’s vigorous anti-drug campaign, Thai military junta’s rule) are increasingly being taken by Southeast Asian governments as unwarranted interference in their domestic affairs. Cultivating security ties by way of joint military exercises and weapons acquisitions is a new dimension in Southeast Asia-China relations and is being driven by such factors as: 1) expanding the frontiers of cooperation beyond economics or to complement deepening economic cooperation; 2) sending a message to the U.S. that Southeast Asia has other options should it decide to diminish or withhold provision of regional security goods for expediency or political reasons; 3) engaging China in addressing shared regional security challenges, such as maritime piracy, and possibly invite it to moderate its assertiveness in the South China Sea.

While Duterte’s pronouncement of procuring Chinese and Russian firearms, as well as mulling military exercises with these non-traditional security partners, surprised many, other Southeast Asian states have already realized what he is still contemplating. Thailand held a joint air force (Blue Sky 2015) and naval/marine exercises (Blue Strike 2016) with China and purchased tanks, auxiliary vehicles and submarines from China. Malaysia has been conducting military exercises with China (Peace and Friendship 2014-16) and bought littoral mission ships from China in 2016. Indonesia has been conducting military exercises with China (Sharp Knife 2011-14) and had been jointly producing military assets with China (e.g. military transport vehicles and aircraft, rocket launchers and ammunition) in 2008 and missiles in 2011.

Seen from this vantage point, the so-called Duterte phenomenon – notable pivot away from overreliance on the U.S. and warming with China – is in fact not a regional outlier, but a process that had already started even before he became President, although there is no question that he has emerged as one of its most emphatic champions.

Although perceptions of China as a threat or a potential threat stay, it did not stop regional states from engaging China, even in the security domain. U.S. failure to halt China’s artificial island construction despite having forward deployed forces and assets in the region and perceived futility of its freedom of navigation operations (FONOPS) did not help shore up America’s faltering regional appeal, leading Duterte to remark about his separation from the U.S. saying that Washington has lost it.

Managing disputes with neighbors

The third consistency is downplaying territorial and maritime disputes that had long marred Philippines-China relations and left them underdeveloped. The West Philippine Sea (WPS) disputes had always been a thorn in cultivating constructive bilateral relations but reflecting on the experience of Malaysia and Indonesia suggests that stable and beneficial relations can thrive despite the persistence of unresolved disputes. This lends credence to the growing currency for dispute management rather than dispute resolution (e.g. international arbitration).

Regardless of power asymmetry, diplomacy is still the preferred option exercised by disputants in defusing crises and incidents such as the 2014 China-Vietnam oil rig incident, incidents of Chinese vessels entering waters off Indonesia’s Natuna Islands and Malaysia’s Luconia Shoals, and Indonesia’s controversial sinking of foreign fishing vessels caught in its waters. This makes the Philippine decision to take China to arbitration in 2013 unprecedented in prevailing state practice in relation to the regional flashpoint. The much publicized arbitration stands in stark contrast to persistent efforts by disputants to downplay the disputes.

Vietnam lost the Paracels to China in 1974 and Johnson South Reef in 1988, both through military defeats, but since then accelerated and fortified its presence in the Spratlys and now occupies the most number of features in the contested sea.

If there is any party that has been most aggrieved by China in SCS, it can only be Vietnam. But since then, Hanoi has opted for negotiations in defusing the 2014 oil rig row despite massive violent anti-China riots that killed scores of people, injured hundreds, and damaged properties. The Chinese state-owned energy company later pulled out the oil rig signaling a diplomatic victory for Vietnam. Hanoi also entered into joint resource development with Beijing over Tonkin/Beibu Gulf. A 2000 Vietnam-China Fishery Agreement, the precursor of which dates back 1957 and joint offshore oil and gas development based on Article VII of the 2000 Vietnam-China Maritime Boundary Delimitation Agreement attests to functional cooperation between the two neighbors.

Seen from this angle, Duterte’s decision to shelve, but not ignore, the landmark arbitral victory, put off plans to visit the Kalayaan Islands in WPS, and discuss prospects for joint development with China in the disputed sea do not necessarily signal a retreat despite his seemingly fatalistic tone. In fact, it could even be a deliberate ploy to use the same as leverages to exact maximum economic concessions from China, as well as contribute to regional confidence building, especially as Manila chairs the rotating ASEAN Chairmanship this year.

At the same time, improving relations with China can even provide the country the conducive atmosphere to upgrade and modernize civilian structures in the Kalayaans without sparking hostile response from its powerful neighbor. Despite China’s indisputable sovereignty claim over a wide expanse of SCS and pronounced opposition to activities by other claimants in the same, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Taiwan were able to consolidate their hold over their occupied features and, at the same time, continue their maritime economic activities of fishing, oil and gas extraction, tourism with little reported incident with China.

This illustrates that having sound dispute management measures such as the fishery hotlines set up between Vietnam and China in 2013, alternative/backdoor channels such as the August 2016 Ramos-Fu-Ying Track Two meeting in Hong Kong that helped pave the way for Duterte’s October 2016 state visit and other high level visits and exchanges work and enjoy regional acceptance.

Value in ambiguity

Duterte’s language and demeanor are his persona and, although everyone may wish that he could improve in that department, failure to look beyond his delivery and bearing may lead to a prejudiced analysis of his unfolding independent foreign policy. His flip-flopping and inconsistencies are criticized for creating uncertainty, but such uncertainty is arguably necessary, if not imperative, given the evolving regional and global dynamics.

If China remains America’s largest trade partner despite their differences, not least on the SCS, why can’t the Philippines follow suit and accelerate economic ties with China? If US can be ambiguous on their treaty commitment – whether the Kalayaans are covered under Article V and what constitutes “armed attack” under Article IV of the 1951 PH-US Mutual Defense Treaty – why should Manila be expected to be so earnest and committal? If other claimant states enjoy good economic and even brewing security ties with China despite the territorial and maritime spat, why can’t the Philippines? If other claimants are finding leverage and capitalizing on it in their dealings with China, why can’t the Philippines? If other claimants can free ride with the arbitration and yet continue quite diplomacy with China, what should stop Manila from using its very own legal victory to strike hard bargains from Beijing without sacrificing its interests in WPS? If President Trump’s regional policy remains hazy, why is there demand for its regional allies to be forthcoming?

The Asia-Pacific is fast changing and it is fortunate that change come to the Philippines too. Ambiguities allow for flexibility and deliberate inconsistencies that can facilitate needed recalibration based on the circumstances.

This article was published at China-US Focus

What Will Erdogan Do With Supreme Power? – OpEd

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The news from Turkey following the referendum on 16 April is worrying.  The coup attempt on 20 July 2016, in which rogue troops commandeered fighter jets and tanks to bomb parliament, led the Turkish cabinet to declare a six-month state of emergency.  On 19 January, as the six months drew to a close, the state of emergency was extended for a further three months.  Now, following the referendum, the Turkish cabinet has once again added three months to the extraordinary powers permitted the president and his government under the terms of the emergency legislation.

The actions taken by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan under the emergency powers may provide a template of what life will be like when Turkey is transformed from a parliamentary to a presidential republic.  For example, in what appears to be a fresh political crackdown, hundreds of opposition activists have been arrested  for protesting the referendum result.

Under the new constitution proposed by Erdogan the role of prime minister will be scrapped and the president will become the head of the executive, as well as the head of state. He will be given sweeping new powers to appoint ministers, prepare the budget, choose the majority of senior judges and enact certain laws by decree. The president alone will be able to announce a state of emergency and dismiss parliament, which will lose its right to scrutinize ministers or propose an inquiry.

Erdogan argued that the reforms he sought would streamline decision-making.  Decision-making is certainly streamlined when judicial independence and press freedom have been stifled, and political opponents imprisoned.  An all-powerful president will be akin to a dictator on the lines of a Hitler or a Stalin.  On 13 March a Council of Europe inquiry expressed “serious concerns at the excessive concentration of powers in one office… It is also of concern that this process of constitutional change is taking place under the state of emergency.”

Erdogan’s presidential ambitions go back a good few years.  The events of 2013, when he held the post of prime minister, may have crystallized them. Twice during the course of the year violence directed largely against Erdogan and the party he leads, the AKP, broke out on the streets of Turkey’s major cities. The underlying cause in both cases was a widespread perception that Erdogan had become too dictatorial in attempting to end Turkey’s role as a model of secularism in the Muslim world.

Over the course of summer 2013 opposition built up within Erdogan’s own party, the AKP.  This centered around followers of Fethullah Gulen, an influential Turkish cleric who lives in the US. Gulen was once one of the AKP’s main spiritual leaders, preaching a blend of moderate, business-friendly Islam that helped the party rise to power. His dispute with Erdogan and the AKP leadership arose over a government decision to shut down the large network of private schools that the Fethullah Gulen community, or Hizmet Movement, operated.

Gulen had followers at high levels in the Turkish establishment, including the judiciary, the secret service and the police force.  Early in December 2013 Erdogan was furious to discover that, for more than a year and unknown to him, the police had been engaged in an undercover inquiry into corruption within the government and the upper echelons of the AKP. By the end of the year Erdogan’s own son had been named in the widening corruption investigation.  Erdogan declared the police investigation a plot by foreign and Turkish forces to discredit his government ahead of local elections in March 2014.

Those elections were the key to unlocking Erdogan’s ambitions.  Returned to office, Erdogan was able to change the constitution to allow him to remain as prime minister beyond his statutory three terms.   Subsequently he was able to stand for president in 2014, and then to imbue the office – once largely ceremonial – with increased powers. Now he can go the whole hog and turn his long-held dream of gaining supreme power into reality.

Erdogan blames Fethullah Gulen for inciting the coup attempt in July 2016, and he has been exacting a ruthless revenge on those accused of having links with Gulen.  170 media outlets have been shut down, including 29 publishing houses, 3 news agencies, 45 newspapers, 16 TV stations, 23 radio stations, and 15 magazines.  1,577 university deans have been forced to resign, while 2,700 judges, 163 admirals and generals and 24,000 teachers and Interior Ministry employees have been fired.

Turkey has been knocking on the EU’s door for decades, but the requirements laid down for entry have consistently proved too onerous for Turkey to achieve. Now, in view of the Erdogan government’s human rights abuses of the past year, allied to his own desire to re-introduce the death penalty, it seems that both the EU and Turkey are backing away from the idea altogether. Exacerbating the situation, the European Commission recently called for an investigation into alleged voting irregularities in the referendum.

So presidential Turkey seems likely to put its EU application on the back burner, and to consolidate its strong position within the Sunni Muslim world.  That presupposes continued opposition to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, and thus an anti-Iran line in the Middle East. Despite US support for some anti-Islamic State groups linked to Kurdish separatists, a re-empowered Erdogan will be largely on side with the US, and also with the Gulf States and Israel, with which he has recently patched up his quarrels of the past decade or so.

History teaches us that absolute power is what dictators and autocrats have traditionally sought but that, in the process of obtaining and exercising it, they almost invariably bring about their own undoing. Will Erdogan buck the trend?

Medical Guidelines For Astronauts To Be Launched In US

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With Cassini making final preparations to penetrate Saturn’s rings, and renewed interest in colonizing the Moon and sending people to Mars, space flight and exploration are experiencing a level of interest not seen since the Apollo missions to the Moon in the late 60’s and 70’s, and the space shuttle program of the 80’s.

Space travel and exploration have resulted in a variety of technological developments which have benefited life on Earth – but could the experiences of humans in space also have impact on our understanding of terrestrial human health?

Scientists at the University of Plymouth and Northumbria University, Newcastle, are helping to write the medical rulebook that will keep astronauts fit and healthy during long trips through the solar system.

While working at the European Astronaut Centre (EAC), in Germany, Northumbria’s Dr Andrew Winnard realized there was very little evidence housed under one roof on what changes we expect to occur in astronauts during spaceflight – and what interventions work best to try and prevent these changes. Andrew also noticed that there was no systematic review group for the entire aerospace medicine field, like there are for almost all other areas of medicine.

He recommended a systematic review group for aerospace medicine, to look at the effectiveness of interventions to prevent health and fitness changes among astronauts and military and civil aviators that will facilitate reviews to inform operational medical guidelines and decision-making processes. He enlisted the support of systematic review expert, co-convener of the Cochrane Priority Settings Method Group and qualified pilot, Dr Mona Nasser from the University of Plymouth, to help formulate the group.

As well as benefiting astronauts and those working in space, the learning will also be used to inform medical practice on Earth; such as in the treatment of lower back pain.

Northumbria is working with experts from the University of Plymouth, the Aerospace Medical Association (AsMA), the European Space Agency (ESA), the Royal Air Force (RAF) the International Space University and Blue Abyss – the world’s largest research, training and development pool for marine and aerospace – to launch this review group at an aerospace medicine conference in the US in May 2017. The group are also launching their website at the Aerospace Medical Association 2017 Annual Scientific Meeting in Denver, between April 29- and May 4 2017.

The Aerospace Medicine Systematic Review Group will facilitate pooling of studies done in aerospace medicine under one roof and ensure that results of reviews are used to feed into comprehensive guidelines that will feed into major operational decisions.

Dr Winnard, Lecturer in Clinical/Musculoskeletal Biomechanics at Northumbria University and Coordinator of the UK Space Environments Association, said: “The group is developing and publishing methods that can be used by anyone undertaking aerospace systematic reviews. These tools help researchers understand and assess what is good quality aerospace research. For example, one tool already developed and available freely online (at our website) helps researchers determine the quality of bed rest studies often used to similar spaceflight for research.

“Already the ESA is hoping the group can help lead reviews to answer questions such as, what exercises will work in small spacecraft on missions that return to the moon, compared to on the International Space Station (ISS) and also asking how the medical challenges will be different on the moon compared to what we are familiar with on ISS.”

Dr Mona Nasser from Plymouth University Peninsula Schools of Medicine and Dentistry added: “Systematic reviews are vital to helping clinicians, researchers and the public make sense of published research. Research evidence needs to be considered in the context of evidence which has gone before in the form of a systematic review. Only by looking at the full picture in a systematic manner can we hope to glean a glimmer of understanding. By bringing the discipline of the systematic review to research around aerospace medicine, we believe we can help aerospace clinicians make the most of the research available to improve their practices and benefit their patients. That this can be translated to ‘Earth-bound’ medicine is also exciting.”

Northumbria University has already worked with ESA and international collaborators including astronauts to conduct a systematic review of the effectiveness of exercise to protect the lower spine and pelvis from changes that happen in space.

The review found no current researched exercises are fully effective at preventing these changes so post flight rehab is needed. Northumbria is now developing the ‘Functional Re-adaptive Exercise Device’, known as FRED, which has been created to combat the back problems astronauts suffer when they return to earth. The device can also be used by those that have developed back pain on Earth.

Former NASA Astronaut Dan Barry said: “As more people go into space and as space exploration expands beyond low earth orbit, effective countermeasures to low gravity environments become even more essential for crew health and mission success.

“Existing literature on space health topics is widely scattered and of highly variable quality. A dedicated systematic aerospace medicine review group is important to provide a consistent, high quality assessment of findings that will lead to improved medical decisions.”

Wing Commander Pete Hodkinson, Consultant in Aviation and Space Medicine for the RAF Centre of Aviation Medicine added: “Aerospace medicine like all other areas of medicine is striving to improve the evidence base to its practice. The establishment of an aerospace medicine systematic review group is a great step towards more evidence based practice in this field; it is warmly welcomed and strongly supported by the RAF Centre of Aviation Medicine.”

Long-Term Fate Of Tropical Forests May Not Be As Dire As Believed

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Tropical rainforests are often described as the “lungs of the earth,” able to inhale carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and exhale oxygen in return. The faster they grow, the more they mitigate climate change by absorbing CO2.

This role has made them a hot research topic, as scientists question what will happen to this vital carbon sink long-term as temperatures rise and rainfall increases.

Conventional wisdom has held that forest growth will dramatically slow with high levels of rainfall. But University of Colorado Boulder researchers this month turned that assumption on its head with an unprecedented review of data from 150 forests that concluded just the opposite.

“Our data suggest that as large-scale climate patterns shift in the tropics, and some places get wetter and warmer, forests will accelerate their growth, which is good for taking carbon out of the atmosphere,” said Philip Taylor, a research associate with the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR). “In some ways, this is a good-news story, because we can expect greater CO2 uptake in tropical regions where rainfall is expected to increase. But there are a lot of caveats.”

Ecologists have long thought that forest growth follows a hump-shaped curve when it comes to precipitation: To a point, more rainfall leads to more growth. But after about 8 feet per year, it was assumed too much water can waterlog the ecosystem and slow the growth rate of forests. While working in the Osa Peninsula of Costa Rica, Taylor, who got his doctoral degree in ecology and evolutionary biology at CU Boulder, began to question this assumption.

“Here we were in a place that got 16 feet of rain per year, and it was one of the most productive and carbon-rich forests on Earth. It clearly broke from the traditional line of thinking,” he said.

Intrigued, Taylor spent four years synthesizing data on temperature, rainfall, tree growth and soil composition from rainforests in 42 countries, compiling what he believes is the largest pan-tropical database to date.

The study, published April 17 in the journal Ecology Letters, found that cooler forests (below 68 degrees F on average), which make up only about 5 percent of the tropical forest biome, seemed to follow the expected hump-shaped curve. But warmer forests, which are in the majority, did not.

“The old model was formed with a lack of data from warm tropical forests,” said Taylor. “It turns out that in the big tropical forests that do the vast majority of the ‘breathing’ the situation is flipped. Instead of water slowing growth down, it accelerates it.”

Taylor cautioned this does not mean climate change won’t negatively impact tropical forests at all. In the short term, research has shown, droughts in the Amazon Basin have already led to widespread plant death and a 30 percent decrease in carbon accumulation in the past decade.

“A lot of climate change is happening at a pace far quicker than what our study speaks to,” he says. “Our study speaks to what we can expect forests to do over hundreds of years.”

Because the carbon cycle is complex, with forests also releasing carbon into the atmosphere as plants die, it’s still impossible to say what the net impact of a wetter climate might be on the forest’s ability to sequester carbon, said senior author Alan Townsend, a professor of environmental studies.

“The implications of the change still need to be worked out, but what we can say is that the forest responds to changes in rainfall quite differently than what has been a common assumption for a long time,” said Townsend.

Going forward, the authors hope the findings will set the record straight for educators and scientists.

“Our findings fundamentally change a view of the tropical forest carbon cycle that has been published in textbooks and incorporated into models of future climate change for years,” said Taylor. “Given how much these forests matter to the climate, these new relationships need to be a part of future climate assessments.”

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