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Great World Powers Should Not Remain Oblivious Of Internal Corruption Of Other Nations – OpEd

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In a vain attempt to streamline global new world order governance, it is sometimes very tempting for “macro” world leaders to simply implement domestic and global policies which completely steam roll over the rights of their individual citizens, for purposes of ease of control and rule, rather than taking the time out to deal with, and rectify, the multiple internecine conflicts, fundamental denials of human and civil rights, race/religious/ethnic tensions, and the rampant injustices which plague their people.

This type of behavior is the mark of a lazy world leader, and their best defense from outside scrutiny and criticism of the methods they use to quash their own people’s hopes and dreams is by knee-jerk declaring that they are protected from outside scrutiny by the doctrine of “sovereign immunity,” which is an international law concept declaring that a country has the absolute right to monitor and control their own internal domestic policies and procedures, without outside influence and interference from other sovereign nations.

However, what happens when that small handful of influential, powerful, and wealthy global world leaders are business partners, friends, cronies, or connected to those other equally culpable world leaders?

How is that 5 or 6 global world leaders with any degree of power and wealth, can stifle and crush the hopes and dreams of the 8 billion people in the world?

The disappointments, human and civil liberties tramplings, and the deeply ingrained and systemic corruption, endemic within much of the world’s countries, is not something to simply brush aside and coverup, under the guise of smooth global governance and streamlining, and must be closely monitored by other nations.

In this vein, once again, the United Nations must do its job.

At least within the United Nations, there are 193 member nations which all have leaders who can actually do something about these issues.


Vulture Capitalists Become Venture Capitalists Thanks To One Belt One Road And TPP

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In the first few months of the Trump Administration, the United States pulled out of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and unveiled their new ‘skinny’ budget, slashing the budgets for the diplomatic corps and development assistance programs as promised during the campaign. This major shift in the US’s ‘soft power approach’ has left Asian emerging market economies concerned about US Government economic assistance and development as the US is retracting from President Obama’s ‘Asian Pivot.’ What’s more, the policy change leaves many states guessing whether the United States will remain the erstwhile partner it was in the past? In the short term, the answer is no. The majority of the region consists of emerging economies that relied heavily on the United States for both economic and security assistance. Regional economic development also served as a firewall to combat a rising Chinese hegemon. So what does this change signify for emerging economies that have traditionally relied on US Government FDI? Well, all indications point to Private Equity and Venture Capital (PE/VC) firms to gladly step into that void and seek an incredible return on a region ripe with opportunity, and incredible potential.

Regional states would rather not rely on China as a source for economic investment. First, this will put them at a considerable disadvantage with regards to maritime disputes in the South China Sea currently in arbitration. PE/VC firms traditionally have treaded lightly in a region full of political risk, and in many ways lacked the intellectual capital on their teams who bring an internalized understanding of the facts on the ground. However, times are changing. Given the potential for investment in emerging economies due to the continuation of TPP with regional states, as well as China’s One Belt One Road Initiative, firms can expand their global footprint and change the perception of being ‘vulture’ capitalists to actual venture capitalists.

PE/VC firms are expanding their research divisions with regional, cultural and linguistic experts. One key example of this is KKR’s installation of fmr. Gen. David Petraeus as the head of the KKR Institute, which focuses exclusively on the political risks and bridging the gaps between cultures that once were an impediment. In addition to KKR, the Carlyle Group and the McChrystal Group have invested heavily in regional experts. By reducing the political risk, once the primary concern for any potential investment, firms will feel greater security in potential investments. The employing of experts to conduct due diligence and lead negotiations with regional stakeholders, this will reduce miscommunications that tend to occur between western firms and Asian partners. Once again, many regional experts are expecting to be cut in the latest skinny budget from the State Department and USAID, and expect PE/VC firms to take full advantage. PE/VC firms will gain expertise, preexisting relationships, linguistic capabilities and a cultural understanding that changes political risk dynamic. For once, firms will not be flying blind and will know first hand where there is potential, and where there is not.

KKR was the first to publicly announce its intentions. In their 2016 report titled “Asia: Pivot Required” KKR stated that “with demand for credit now exceeding supply, we see demand for private capital by promoters and entrepreneurs solidly increasing.” KKR has backed this up by announcing on April 20th that they completed and funded US$250 million investment in Masan Group and in its branded meat platform, Masan Nutri-Science. This targeted investment provides greater insight into how the PE/VC community can pinpoint specific industries. Additionally, this injects confidence for other PE/VC firms to invest in the region. The KKR/Masan Group deal was not possible without regional experts who crossed over from the public sector and could conduct due diligence with regional contacts and previous regional experience in policy and culture. Experts in regional economics and policy know the risks first hand. They also know the reforms being made by regional players reduces the political risk that once made firms skeptical.

According to Gillian Tett of the Financial Times, Private Equity firms such as Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co (KKR) and the Carlyle Group rank in the top 10 of US based employers. They employ more than 700,000 people in their portfolio companies globally. With the US withdrawal from the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), investment firms are expected to expand investment into emerging regional market economies. Previous risks in Southeast Asian capital investments such as corruption and mismanagement are gradually improving. In order to become more attractive to private investors, emerging economies must address the corruption issue so private investors will see greater investment potential with less political and capital risk.

The majority of ASEAN countries rank in the bottom half of Transparency Internationals Corruption Perception Index for 2016. For the Asia Pacific region specifically, the report states that, “Poor performance can be attributed to unaccountable governments, lack of oversight, insecurity and shrinking space for civil society, pushing anti-corruption action to the margins in those countries. High-profile corruption scandals, in addition to everyday corruption issues, continue to undermine public trust in government, the benefits of democracy and the rule of law.” It must be noted that at the time of this assessment, both Vietnam and Myanmar were in the process of expansive reforms, and are expected to improve greatly. These states are critical to regional growth and are making incredible strides in expanding the private sector. Though the employment of more cultural and linguistic regional experts this will dramatically reduce traditional political risk and firms are already beginning to show they are ready to make that move.

Of course, as with any investment into emerging economies, risks remain present. However, there is no doubt that given the vacuum created by the US Government with regional partners, as well as a reluctance and trust to do business with the Chinese, PE/VC firms have incredible opportunity. By employing regional experts and former diplomats, PE/VC firms will find greater flexibility and potential to gain a significant regional foothold. With experts in place who bring a belief in economic development, intellectual transfer and a commitment to transparency, a new era is potentially on its way.

*David Wolfe is a specialist on Asian Security and private consultant for foundations, development firms and corporations specializing in human security, supply chain management and intellectual capacity building in emerging markets in Indo-Asia-Pac countries. He has previously written for the Denmark based Riskline, the Foreign Policy Journal, The Journal of Political Risk and Tokyo based Ai-Eye Magazine.

Why Trump Should Think About China-US Cooperation On Afghanistan – OpEd

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By Nodir Boboev*

America’s Afghan problem has become fiendishly complicated and miserably endless. As the longest-running US war, military engagement in Afghanistan has cost $783 billion iand the loss of more than 2,000 human lifes. Still, the achievement of fundamental goals to pave the way for the ultimate US withdrawal in the hostile land is as elusive as ever.

Instead the US is considering putting more troops on the ground in Afghanistan. On the one hand, the Taliban controls more territory than ever before since 2001. On the other, these insurgents have ruthlessly eaten into the Afghan forces that the US has ceaselessly worked to raise and help stand the ground. In addition, the threat of the sinister Islamic State that has ravaged parts of Middle East also lurks in Afghanistan. The government in Kabul is inefficient and divisive to the level that it is becoming a sort of liability at times. Yet this is not the full picture of America’s tribulations in Afghanistan.

There is a regional aspect of this whole panorama that was long in the making, but has started to crystallize only recently. The role of neighburing countries including Pakistan, Iran and Russia has become part of the problem in Afghanistan. On the face of it, these powers share common goals with the US regarding Afghanistan: a stable Afghanistan that poses less of a security threat to other countries and is governed and controlled by the Afghan people. But practically, their policies have done little to help in achieving these goals at the most critical juncture of the war in Afghanistan. In fact, these countries have started to play their own cards to offset any gains the US might be achieving.

Russia, which has been vying with the US for influence on many fronts, has started taking a leading role in Afghan peace talks. In a surprising move in December last, Moscow – including Pakistan and China – held talks with the Taliban that excluded both Afghanistan and America. As a result, the Afghan government was less restrained in expressing its anger and denunciation over the move. Irrespective of the fact that the Taliban are the main security threat in Afghanistan, in fact, Russia, has shown greater sympathy and support for the Taliban. A top US general even claimed that Moscow was supporting the Taliban.

In addition, Russia and Pakistan – the erstwhile rivals- have astonishingly warmed up to each other around the issue of Afghanistan (though this is not the only reason). In an unprecedented move, Pakistan few months ago facilitated a visit by Russian military delegation to North Waziristan that sits at border with Afghanistan and was once the hub of militant insurgents. It is noteworthy that Pakistan — with its long connections with the Afghan Taliban — has been considered to be the most crucial player in resolving the Afghan conundrum. If Russia’s relations with the US have deteriorated for the worse, the state of Pak-Afghan ties is not encouraging at all. Above all, Pakistan has yet to put full-hearted efforts behind the goal of bringing an end to the Afghan insurgency.

Perhaps the most intriguing is the role of Iran. Despite its historic aversion for the Taliban regime, Iran has made an outreach to the Taliban that is directly aimed at countering the American gains in Afghanistan. The deadly Taliban chief, Mullah Mansour was killed by an American drone while returning from Iran. Senator John McCain, Chairman of the Senate Armed Service Committee, recently pointed out this fact at a Congressional hearing by saying that “Iran is reportedly arming and funding the Taliban.” Iran’s approach in one way is comparable to that of Pakistan: using the Taliban as proxy to undermine the American presence in Afghanistan and its allies in Kabul.

Afghanistan has become a battleground for regional powers especially Pakistan, Russia and Iran to mire and bleed the US in an endless proxy war. In fact, the billions of dollars and thousands of troops that the US has been investing in Afghanistan have served the interest of these regional countries. American involvement has maintained a delicate and shaky balance of security that has so far forestalled the outright victory and hence the control of Afghanistan by Islamic militants. Even if they have supported the Taliban in one way or the other, none of these countries would like them rule Afghanistan again. As America has been providing this primary goal so far so well, these actors in return have found themselves absolved from bearing any direct burden in Afghanistan. Instead, they have started ganging-up in a way to make sure the U.S. and its allied government in Kabul doesn’t get enough foothold in the country. But there is a major exception in the form of China that can play a constructive role.

There are many reasons to believe why China can be part of the solution to Afghan problem. Since the launching of the grand “Belt and Road Initiative” (called by various names) in 2015, China has been on the spree of investing billions of dollars around the world. China’s interest and determination about the idea of BRI was in full display in the form of Belt and Road summit held on May 14-15 in Beijing. In addition to pledging $124 billion for the project, Chinese President Xi Jinping termed it as the “project of the century”.

One of the most crucial regions in Beijing’s “One Belt One Road” planning sits next to Afghanistan: Pakistan. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) constitutes a pivotal role in this whole projection. With $51 billion of projected investment, CPEC is envisaged as “flagship project” for China’s inter-continental connectivity plans.

But all this investment in Pakistan can run into difficulty because of deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan. Pakistan has already blamed the cross-border (inside Afghanistan) elements behind the terrorist activities in the country. Even if Pakistan has maintained a relatively stable order in the country, security threats always lurk behind the scene. China has a very strong reason for preempting this type scenario derailing its OBOR-related ambitions. Still more important factor to believe China’s stakes in a stable Afghanistan are higher than few-years-old economic ambitions: security interests overrides all other considerations. The volatile region of Xinjiang shares borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan. The argument and further extended to the fact that unlike Pakistan and Iran or even Russia, China’s relation with the Taliban is diplomatic and based on pragmatic calculations. China has played rather cautiously in managing its relations simultaneously with both the Taliban leadership and Kabul government. On the one hand, Beijing maintains fairly warm relations with government in Kabul and on the other, it has courted the Taliban for peace talks.

Concurrently, relations between the Trump administration and Xi Jinping are relatively in better form. First, China seems to be cooperating with the U.S. on North Korea problem to the extent that the American President Donald Trump openly hailed President Xi’s efforts. Second, both the countries reached a trade deal few days ago with U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross saying “U.S.-China relationships are now hitting a new high, especially in trade.” And thirdly, the Trump administration while recognising “the importance” of China’s new Silk Road plan sent a delegation led by the White House adviser Matt Pottinger. The mover was quite symbolic in the sense it marked a shift from Obama administration’s cautious approach towards China’s OBOR plan.

If China has got its stakes in a stable in Afghanistan, it’s opportune time for the new administration in Washington to seriously think about including the Afghan issue to the list of agenda of talks and cooperation with China. At least China can employ its influence to alter the behaviour of “all-weather” friend Pakistan that has supported insurgency in Afghanistan for a long time. China also maintains fairly good offices with the Taliban and can help pushing them for meaningful talks. After all, compared to other powers in the region – i.e. Pakistan, Iran and Russia – China’s role in Afghan proxy war has relatively been innocuous: China does not use or support Taliban as a proxy. However, for all this to happen, the US-China relations should be free of any new major troubles. It is not guaranteed if this approach will bring the desirable results but the U.S. has a good case (in terms of China’s interests in stable Afghanistan and good relations between the Trump and Xi) to think about this opportunity. Without having any regional on its side on Afghan issue, it will be far more difficult for the US to find a solution to Afghan issue.

*Nodir Boboev is a PhD International Relations student at the School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA), Jilin University, China.

Why Head Transplants Won’t Disprove Existence Of God

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By Perry West

With plans for the first human head transplant surgery looming in the next year, a lead doctor on the formidable project has high hopes for the procedure.

Along with the aim of finding a new body for a yet-to-be-selected patient, the physician says that the surgery – as a first step toward immortality – will effectively disprove religion.

But Catholic critics have called into question not only the ethics of such a risky procedure, but the dubious claim that such a development would render belief in God irrelevant.

“The actual trying of the surgery at this point I think would be unethical because of the tremendous risk involved, and it is an unproven surgery,” Dr. Paul Scherz, assistant professor of moral theology and ethics at The Catholic University of America, told CNA.

Sherz made his remarks following the news that Italian doctor Sergio Canavero is aiming to carry out the first human head transplant surgery within the next 10 months. It’s a process Canavero hopes will pave the way for the process of transplanting cryogenically frozen brains – and ultimately, in his view, to the eradication of death.

Canavero serves as director of Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group and has teamed up with Harbin Medical Centre and Doctor Xiaoping Ren, an orthopedic surgeon who was involved with the first successful hand transplant in the U.S. The first surgical attempt for the head transplant is expected to take place in China, where the group says they’re more likely to find a donor body.

Cryonics involves the freezing of the brain or even the whole body of patients, with expectations that future science will have the means to restore the frozen tissue and extend life.

Because conscious minds will have experienced “life” outside of death, Canavero said the surgery would then remove the fear of death and the people’s need for religion. He said if the process succeeds, “religions will be swept away forever.”

However, Sherz responded that even if the surgery was a success, it would not disprove the Catholic faith.

“There is nothing in the Catholic tradition of how we understand the soul that would think that if you moved a head or moved the brain that that wouldn’t allow the person to come back to life,” he said.

Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group has already claimed that a successful head transplant has been carried out on a monkey, but not all scientists agree that the operation can be recorded as a success.

Before the monkey’s head was stitched back together, it was removed, cooled, and the blood of the transplant body was cross circulated with an outside source. Canavero and his group claimed the supply of blood was then connected to prove the surgery succeeded without brain damage, but the spinal cord was left unattached.

How the connected blood supply proves the surgery is possible without brain damage was not described, and many bioethicists are skeptical of the publication of the surgery’s success without proper peer review and of the issues around the severed spine.

Because the technology has not yet been developed, the bioethicists worry that the severed spine may never be reconstructed, leaving the patient worse off than before.

Despite the pervasive belief in the surgery’s failure, Canavero claims there’s a 90 percent chance that the human head transplant will succeed. And not only that, its success would allow humans to “no longer need to be afraid of death.”

Father Tad Pacholczyk, who serves as a bioethicist for the National Catholic Bioethics Center, disagreed with Canavero’s definition of being “brought back to life.”

He said to assume death as a necessary product of either the head surgery or brain surgery is gullible and mistaken, as there is potential for the patient to be merely unconscious.

“The patient undergoing the head transplant is not dead, only unconscious,” he told CNA. “There is not any ‘bringing back to life’…There is merely a restoration of consciousness, briefly lost during the movement of the head from one human body to the other.”

Scherz also said that the Church accepts an intimate and mysterious relationship between soul and body, and that the procedure’s success wouldn’t necessary disprove the soul or religion.

“Our neurological tissue has important part to play in our soul…The soul is always intimately related to the body. We are not just souls that are disembodied, right? We are embodied spirits or spirited bodies.”

Most physicians agree that the proposed surgery’s success rate is infinitesimal, and they’ve questioned the morality of a procedure that’s doomed to fail – and the unrealistic hope life extension projects could give to people.

“I am concerned that the rights of vulnerable patients undergoing cryonics cannot be protected indefinitely,” Dr. Channa Jayasena, a lecturer in Reproductive Endocrinology at Imperial College in London, told the Telegraph.

Cryonics, she said, “has risks for the patient, poses ethical issues for society, is highly expensive, but has no proven benefit.”

And the hope for immortal life, Scherz weighed in, isn’t a realistic desire in a fallen world. “Living forever in bodily form is not going to satisfy anyone,” he said.

“If the goal is not to help someone to get back bodily movement or things like that, but to try to live forever on this earth, then I think if you really want to get over the fear of death then you will have to come to terms with the fact that we are mortal.”

“That what’s going to help you to live a better life because you are going to be willing to give your life to things like service.”

In fact, he said that people in transhumanist movements have admitted they would most likely avoid risky behavior in order to preserve their lives.

“If life extension projects come into being there is so much more to lose – and you committed yourself to trying to live on this earth for as long as possible, which stands in contrast to the Catholic tradition and a lot of the philosophical traditions,” Scherz noted.

Pentagon Spokesman Describes US Raid In Yemen

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By Terri Moon Cronk

Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula is a formidable terror group that remains intent on attacking Americans and the U.S. homeland, Navy Capt. Jeff Davis, director of Pentagon press operations, told reporters Tuesday.

Davis addressed Monday’s U.S. Special Operations counterterrorism raid that killed seven al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula operatives in Yemen’s Marib governorate, located about 150 miles north of Aden, the country’s capital.

Special Forces raided an al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula compound comprising a few buildings, he said, adding, “[al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula was] using this as a headquarters, a place to meet and plan for external operations and to lead the group.”

First Raid Deep In Yemen

The raid marked the first time the United States conducted an operation into Marib governorate, and the location was the deepest the military has gone into Yemen to fight al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, Davis said.

“The intent of the raid was to disrupt AQAP operations,” he said, noting that “at least” seven al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula militants were killed with small-arms fire and precision airstrikes from an AC-130 gunship.

No civilian casualties were reported, and based on observations on the ground and in the sky, there are no credible indications of such casualties, Davis said.

Dangerous Terrorists

“AQAP has significant amounts of American blood on its hands,” he said. “It is an organization that has used the ungoverned spaces in Yemen to plot, direct and inspire terrorist attacks against America, our citizens and our allies around the world.”

Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula attacked the U.S. embassy in Sanaa, Yemen, in 2008; attempted to down Northwest Airlines Flight 253 on Christmas Day in 2009; and conspired to send explosive-laden parcels to Chicago in 2010, he said.

Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula’s English-language magazine, Inspire, also has been used to encourage attacks against the West, Davis said, citing multiple attacks that include the Boston Marathon bombing in 2013, the Fort Hood mass shooting in 2009 and other lone-wolf attacks in the United States and Europe.

Yemen Authorized Operation

Yesterday’s raid was conducted under the same U.S. authorities as those granted in advance of the earlier, Jan. 28 raid, which included authorities for airstrikes and follow-on action, he said.

The operation had the support and cooperation of the Yemen government, and was done in conjunction with U.S. partners, the spokesman said.

“We will continue to support Yemen in bringing stability to the region by fighting known terrorist organizations like AQAP,” Davis said.

UK: Police Search For Bomber’s Accomplices, Warn Of ‘Imminent’ Attack

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(RFE/RL) — British authorities late on May 23 deployed the army to protect against another possibly “imminent” attack as they searched for accomplices to the suspected suicide bomber who killed 22 people and injured 59 in a Manchester concert hall.

Prime Minister Theresa May said it was possible that a wider group was linked to the bombing, which hit a young crowd exiting a performance by pop star Ariana Grande, prompting authorities to raise the alert level to the highest possible “critical” stage.

“This means that their assessment is not only that an attack remains highly likely, but that a further attack may be imminent,” May said in a televised statement from her Downing Street Office, even as thousands poured into the streets of England to mourn the victims.

“Armed police officers responsible for duties such as guarding key sites will be replaced by members of the armed forces… You might also see military personnel deployed at certain events, such as concerts and sports matches.”

Manchester Police Chief Ian Hopkins identified the bomber as Salman Abedi, 22, who authorities said died in the attack. May said Abedi was born and raised in Britain and security officials said he was of Libyan descent.

Police raided two sites in the northern English city, setting off a controlled explosion in one, and arresting a 23-year-old man in a third location.

The extremist group Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack on what it called “crusaders” on its Telegram account and warned that “what comes next will be more severe on the worshippers of the cross.”

IS’s Amaq news agency spoke of “a group of attackers” in an online post that was later removed.

Under Britain’s Operation Temperer, army troops may be moved in to replace police officers who now guard “key sites” such as sports stadiums and major entertainment venues.

May said the move will allow the police to significantly increase the number of armed officers on patrol.

May took calls throughout the day on May 23 from many world leaders, who expressed outrage at the attack and solidarity with Britain, which has not seen such a deadly attack since 52 people were killed by suicide bombings on London’s subway system in 2005.

The attack also elicited painful memories of the 2015 terror attacks in Paris, where most of the 130 killed were at the Bataclan concert hall.

“We struggle to comprehend the warped and twisted mind that sees a room packed with young children not as a scene to cherish but as an opportunity for carnage,” May said in her address to the nation.

Trump Wants To Make America Great At Geography Again – OpEd

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Donald Trump is being trolled online after he made another geographical gaffe – this time apparently returning the Mediterranean island of Corsica to Italy.

A map of Trump’s itinerary for his first foreign trip as US President puts the French region of Corsica within Italy’s borders.

Corsica, located west of the Italian Peninsula, has been part of France since 1768 but does maintain many elements of Italian culture. A number of nationalist and independence movements in Corsica continue to oppose French dominance.

The blunder was picked up by Italian social media users who thanked Trump for his oversight.

Twitter users also pointed out the inclusion of the Vatican in the map of Italy, pointing out that Vatican City is a city-state.

Local media outlet Corsica Oggi questioned whether Trump wanted to see the Mediterranean island annexed, saying: “Could the American president in reality be an Italian irredentist? Or simply ignorant?”

Of course this isn’t Trump’s first or most significant geographical blunder. After the president arrived in Israel from Saudi Arabia he reportedly said he “just got back from the Middle East.”

He also previously referred to Belgium, where he will visit on May 25 for a NATO meeting, as his “favorite city.” Trump is adorable.

Indonesia: Gay Men Caned 83 Times In Front Of Jeering Crowd In Aceh

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Two men have been caned 83 times each in the Indonesian province of Aceh after being caught having sex.

The men stood on stage in white gowns praying while a team of hooded men lashed their backs with a cane, the BBC reported.

The pair, aged 20 and 23, were found in bed together by vigilantes who entered their private accommodation in March. They have not been identified.

Same sex relations are not illegal in most of Indonesia but it is in Aceh, the only province which exercises Islamic law.

It is the first time gay men have been caned under Shariah in the province.

The punishment was delivered outside a mosque in the provincial capital of Banda Aceh.

A large crowd of observers jeered the two men when they appeared and cheered as the caning took place. “Let this be a lesson to you,” one of the men watching cried out. “Do it harder,” another man yelled.

Earlier, an organiser warned the crowd not to attack the men, saying, “they are also human.”

The men were sentenced to 85 strokes but the number was reduced by two because they had spent two months in detention.


Trump’s Tour In The Eyes Of Skeptics And Pundits – OpEd

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By Maria Dubovikova*

Trump’s overseas visit, the first since he has become the 46th US President, is not typical as it started with Saudi Arabia, the first leg of his external tour which takes him also to Israel and with the Vatican as his final destination, defying traditional first state visits that are usually paid to Washington’s old allies. That is one of the reasons why the world is following the visit with a pity dose of skepticism, while the Middle East region is boiling with happiness.

This time the tour is not only a purely geopolitical matter. It is predetermined by a complex pack of geopolitical, political, business reasons and personal beliefs. The Middle East is at the center of the major global turbulences. The Middle East is the cradle of the world’s religions and of civilization. The Middle Eastern countries are important partners in terms of investment and trade, as they have high financial capabilities for investments and trade development while undergoing intensive full scale development in many sectors. With this tour, based on visiting three centers of three main world’s religions, Trump somehow gives a message of coexistence, and of building bridges between the religions and of reconciliation.

The Riyadh Summit has become the starting point not only of his tour, but is deemed a new face-off of regional and world order. The summits may enter the modern history as a cornerstone of the new unprecedented tomorrow.

They were not only about fighting terrorism and extremism, that are fundamental threats for the whole mankind, but about forming new alliances, closing the rows of the Muslim world under the powerful shield of the US. It is about formation of a new system of cooperation and breaking off with the heritage of Obama, considered weak-willed. However, the speech in Riyadh delivered by Trump at some extent reminds of Obama’s one, delivered in 2009 in Cairo University, during his first few months as president, entitled “The New Beginning,” which addressed Muslims from a Muslim capital. That time the White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs has stated that the choice of Egypt was predetermined by the consideration, that “it is a country that in many ways represents the heart of the Arab World.” Trump has targeted in his speech not only the Arab World, but the whole Muslim community, except Iran, from heartland of Islam.

The Muslim world is at the same time both the source of terrorism and extremism and its main victim. And Trump’s decision to make the first foreign visit not to the old allies, but to Riyadh can be explained also by the fact that old allies are incapable to lead the fight against the main threat to the world and to eradicate terrorism and radical Islam. Unfortunately, old Europe is incapable to take actions, be effective in crisis management, while plunging in everlasting disputes, vain rhetoric, loud declarations with fatal absence of real action. Old allies are incapable to make “America great again.” To become great, America needs to lead those who really hold the keys to the resolution of the main tragedies and problems of humanity. Trump gambled on the Middle East. The only powers that can save the whole international community are the Muslim ones. Absolute responsibility of leadership lays on the shoulders of the Kingdom as it is a custody of two holy mosques and the heart of Islam, for the sake of the religion and believers, of humanity and peace.

Russia is left outboard of the historical alliance and initiative, while suffering from and fighting the terrorism and religious extremism on a daily basis, being targeted by terrorists and having regions majorly populated by the Muslim community. But even if the gates of the alliance and cooperation launched in Riyadh are left open for the “friendly” states, Russia, one of the few allies of Iran, will hardly be welcome on board.

Friendly to Iran, Obama is replaced by hating the Persian State Trump. Trump unites the countries against Iran, which he has pointed as a main trouble maker of the region. Taking a unique flight from Riyadh to Israel, he will make an effort to bring to an end the Arab-Israeli conflict that splits the region and breeds strife, damaging global stability. Most likely he will fail to become the peacemaker we all aspire for, but anyway the effort is worth to be made. With this historical first ever flight from Saudi Arabia to Israel, he is trying to bring Israel to the congregation of the regional states as an equal partner. From the view of the current US administration this can be explained by the fact that Israel and the Arab States are facing the same enemy – Iran. The formation of a structure resembling Middle Eastern branch of NATO has already sparked criticism in the US. Trump’s opponents who consider the perspective of the US to support one side in a sectarian conflict threatening to the national interests. The visit in general was covered most critically by the US media, to the contrary to Arab ones, which praised the historical visit in the most flattering and complimentary evaluations and appraisals.

The Arab World feeling weak in face of the new threats, suffering from the oil price cut that is posing a heavy burden on the national state economies which were not accustomed to austerity measures, feels in dire need of the US shield and of the strong and determined president in the White House. Trump has already demonstrated his might with airstrikes in Syria last March that have much pleased the regional powers. The Arab world pins high hope on Donald Trump; however, the presence of the US in the region has never brought anything but wars, instability and destruction. But the hope for the better dies the last. But this time it has all chances to perish completely. Donald Trump, with whom the Arab world is so happy, despite his uncomplimentary remarks about the regional powers he had been making before running for president of the US and his presidential campaign, forgotten and forgiven by extraordinary Arabic magnanimity, makes his countrymen very dissatisfied. And the things are developed in such a way so far that Trump has all chances even not to remain in office even by the end of this year. If the things follow such a scenario that is predicted by most renowned analysts’ that would mean the return into power of the Democrats and return of Obama-like agenda back on track with a much more friendlier approach to Iran, and far less friendly one to the GCC and mainly Saudi Arabia. In such circumstances, somehow rephrasing Trumps words from his speech delivered during Riyadh Summit, the Middle East will have to decide what kind of future they want for themselves, for their countries, and for their children. It is a choice America cannot make for Middle Eastern states. And instead of waiting for anyone to protect them and solve their problems, it is the most appropriate time to unite their forces themselves, to trespass contradictions, to diversify global ties, to fight terrorism and radicalization themselves, to take the lead in building their own future. The upcoming 22 years will be the hardest for the region. And how the regional powers will survive the turbulence depends exclusively on their own potentials rather than relying on others.

Maria Dubovikova is a prominent political commentator, researcher and expert on Middle East affairs. She is president of the Moscow-based International Middle Eastern Studies Club (IMESClub). She can be reached on Twitter: @politblogme.

Egypt: Rights Lawyer Detained Over Handing Over Islands To Saudi Arabia

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Former Egyptian presidential candidate and rights lawyer who challenged the government for handing over islands to Saudi Arabia was detained Tuesday on suspicion of illegal political work, a judicial official said.

Khaled Ali was summoned by the prosecution for questioning on suspicion of having set up an unregistered political party, the official said.

The prosecution ordered his detention for 24 hours.

His legal troubles come as opposition groups complain of a crackdown ahead of the 2018 presidential election which incumbent Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is expected to dominate.

Ali was the main lawyer to bring a case against the government after it agreed to hand over two Red Sea islands to Saudi Arabia in April last year.

The agreement to transfer the islands of Tiran and Sanafir sparked rare protests in Egypt, which bans all but court approved demonstrations.

Ali also ran in the 2012 election that brought to power Islamist president Mohamed Morsi.

Dissidents accuse Sisi of having installed a repressive regime since the then army chief ousted the unpopular Morsi in 2013.

But Sisi also enjoys widespread support among Egyptians, who say the country needs a firm hand to cope with years of tumult and a deadly jihadist insurgency.

Original source

Rosenstein And Mueller: The Regime Change Tag-Team – OpEd

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Let’s say you own a big US corporation but need help managing your domestic accounts. So you hire a bright, young man named Bruno who just graduated from Harvard Business School with a Masters in corporate finance.  And the first day on the job, you discover that Bruno has secretly employed a private detective who has obtained subpoena power to dig through all of your business accounts, all your investments past and present, all your taxes going back decades, and any personal transactions you might have made in the last 20 years or so.  And, oh yeah, and he also has the authority to interview anyone he chooses, including people who might have a grudge against you or who lost money on one of your dodgy real estate deals or who simply doesn’t like the way you comb your hair. And, of course, Bruno knows that the information he gathers is going to be deliberately tweaked to look as suspicious as possible, then it’s going to be leaked to the press and splashed across the headlines, then it’s going to be presented as evidence to a Grand Jury, and then, finally– after months of excruciating testimony and nonstop mud-slinging– it will be used in criminal proceedings that will lead your removal as CEO of your corporation.

How would you feel about that?  Would you feel like your new employee had betrayed you? Would you think that Bruno was a back-stabbing scoundrel who was secretly working for your enemies?

Rod Rosenstein is Bruno. The man is a skunk,  there’s no two-ways about it.

And, yes, I know, people are going to swarm to Rosenstein’s defense and say, “Yeah, but, Trump is a bloviating buffoon and a mentally-unstable despot.”  And, they’re right, too, the man is a menace, a narcissist and maybe even a crackpot. Just look at the Saudi arms deal where Trump agreed to provide hundreds of billions of dollars of weapons to a fanatical government that will undoubtedly use them to arm its jihadist army in Syria or kill women and children in Yemen.  It just shows that Trump is a vicious, unprincipled militarist. But that doesn’t change what Rosenstein did. People need to look beyond Trump’s failings to appreciate what type of man we’re dealing with here.  Rosenstein is a duplicitous back-stabbing serpent. End of story.

When a president makes an appointment, like Deputy Attorney General, the assumption is that the appointee is going to play for the home team. That doesn’t mean that Rosenstein was expected to do anything dishonest or illegal. Not at all. He was simply expected to be moderately loyal and defend the administration against politically-motivated attacks. That’s it. But that was too much for Rosenstein whose first big decision as Deputy AG was to pull the rug out from under his boss, betray his team, and sabotage the administration’s entire political agenda. He blew up the whole damn operation with one sweep of the hand. Kaboom.

By appointing a Special Counsel, Rosenstein not only destroyed any chance Trump had at achieving his policy objectives,  he also effectively rolled-back the results of the 2016 presidential election.

Not bad for a day’s work, eh?

We can now be 100 percent certain that Trump’s political agenda will never get off the ground. His tax plan, his infrastructure plan, his health care plan; all of them have gone up in smoke thanks to Rosenstein. Which is good, right, since the Trump’s “pamper the rich and screw-the-working-man” plan was crappy policy anyway? So, good riddance.

But was that Rosenstein’s decision to make? Is that how democracy is supposed to work? Does one unelected, meddlesome lawyer at the DOJ get to overturn the results of the election and bring the government to a screeching halt?

No. That’s not how the system is supposed to work. The president is supposed to set the agenda because, well, because he’s the president and that’s what the people voted for. It’s called democracy. But Rosenstein doesn’t like democracy, he’d rather do the work of his paymasters who want to see Trump drawn and quartered before he’s given the boot.

“His paymasters”? Rosenstein has paymasters?

Yer darn right, he does. Rosenstein didn’t make the decision to appoint a Special Counsel by himself. That’s baloney. He got his marching orders from someone else higher up the foodchain. That’s obvious. Does anyone seriously believe that a second-string attorney at the Justice Department would launch a full-blown attack on the president of the United States unless he got the greenlight from the deep-state fatcats who operate behind the scenes?

No way. If the big boys weren’t on board, the media would have blown Rosenstein out of the water 5 minutes after he made the announcement. As it stands, the witchhunt is going forward without a shred of solid evidence, without any eyewitnesses, without a hint of wrongdoing, and without any probable cause. It’s like a novel by Franz Kafka only everyone already knows how it ends.

And Rosenstein didn’t pick hatchetman Robert Mueller by himself either. That’s more malarkey. Mueller was picked by the same shadowy throng of elites that selected the 9-11 Commission, the big money guys who own this fecking country lock, stock and barrel. In this case, they wanted a political assassin who could be trusted to do everything in his power to force Trump to resign.  Mueller was the perfect man for the job, a cold-blooded Mafia hitman who won’t leave his fingerprints at the scene of the crime. In his more than 10-year stint at the FBI, Mueller managed to conceal his utter contempt for the law behind a mask of smug sincerity and icy self-righteousness.  His qualifications speak for themselves. Here’s a little background on Mueller from Sputnik News:

“Robert Mueller, picked as special prosecutor to investigate President Donald Trump, violated the US Constitution as FBI Director by using secret domestic spy programs, National Security Agency (NSA) whistleblower William Binney told Sputnik.

“My problem with Mueller is that he agreed with and used the Stellar Wind spying program at NSA against common crime since 2001,” Binney said Wednesday. “He admitted to this in a 2011 interview with [Time magazine correspondent] Bart Gellman.”…

Binney said that Mueller’s willingness to use secret espionage surveillance techniques designed only for national security functions against suspects in regular criminal investigations revealed his willingness to ignore or break safeguards in the US Constitution.

“This means he [Mueller] did not live up to his oath of office to protect and defend the Constitution against foreign and domestic threats. So, he clearly has a selective view of how you apply the Constitution,” Binney explained…

James Comey, Mueller’s successor as FBI Director, who was fired by Trump on May 9 had also been willing to ignore the US Constitution in order to use NSA data collected without any legal warrant against ordinary criminals, Binney recalled.” (“Special Counsel for Russia Probe Violated Constitution – NSA Whistleblower”, Sputnik)

Repeat:  He used “secret espionage surveillance techniques designed only for national security functions against suspects in regular criminal investigations.”

Nice. So instead of dogging-down the crooked bankers on Wall Street who blew up the financial system and fleeced We The People out of trillions of dollars, Mueller spent his time stomping on the Forth Amendment so he could add a few more warm bodies to our ballooning prison population. Way to go, Bob.

And there’s more about Mueller that people should know, too, like the fact that he was the architect of an FBI entrapment program that lured simple-minded gangbangers into terrorist scams and then threw them in the slammer for the rest of their lives.  Check out this blurb from an article at Electronic Intifada titled “The FBI’s penchant for “manufacturing terrorists”:

“What the FBI was doing before, during and after the financial crisis is the subject under examination in Trevor Aaronson’s new book The Terror Factory: Inside the FBI’s Manufactured War on Terrorism. The book unveils the FBI’s domestic counterterrorism program that began after the 11 September attacks and has continued well into Barack Obama’s second term in office. The program, vividly portrayed by Aaronson, is defined by a wanton use of informants and sting operations in order to produce a high rate of convictions…

Since the 11 September attacks, the FBI has employed more than 15,000 confidential informants nationwide. And, according to Aaronson, for each official informant there are as many as three unofficial informants — known within the FBI as “hip pockets.” By 2011, the Justice Department had prosecuted more than 500 individuals on terrorist charges, a handful of whom Aaronson categorizes as “actual terrorists.” The rest were hatched within the context of FBI sting operations, informants and agents provocateur…..

What Aaronson discovered was that, far from preventing terrorism, the FBI uses its funds to “manufacture” terrorists out of marginalized, desperate, mentally ill or immature men (many of the convicted individuals profiled are in their early twenties). In Aaronson’s words, “The FBI has been effective at creating the very enemy it is hunting.”….

Taking his readers through several FBI sting operations, Aaronson reveals a sordid practice in which the FBI often employs criminals to infiltrate Muslim communities to turn otherwise powerless malcontents into “terrorists.” According to Aaronson’s accounts, these so-called terrorists would have no more than the capability to mouth off in a chat room if it weren’t for the inert weapons and cash that informants would literally place in their hapless hands, thus creating “bogeymen from buffoons.”…

Aaronson’s book is a powerful portrait of the FBI’s insidious and destructive counterterrorism program that enables the contortion of the innocuous into the threatening, ruining hundreds of lives in its wake.”

(“FBI’s penchant for “manufacturing terrorists” probed in new book” by Trevor Aaronson, Charlotte Silver, Electronic Intifada)

So this is what Mueller and his FBI pals were up to before Comey arrived on the scene?

Apparently so. They were devoting a considerable amount of time and resources to operations  that framed hapless dupes and patsies as dangerous terrorists threatening our precious national security.

And the man who oversaw these operations, Robert Mueller, is the same guy the media has been praising  as the embodiment of integrity and moral rectitude.  Give me a break. Mueller knew these operations were a hoax, he had to know. The FBI was working a sting to lure hard-luck dimwits into doing things they’d never normally dream of doing. It’s called entrapment, which is exactly what it is.  What the FBI was doing is no different than coaxing a hungry dog into a steelcage with a T-Bone steak.  The Bureau calls the practice “counter-terrorism”.  Anyone in their right mind would call it “Baloney”.

This is why the bigshots chose Mueller to spearhead their Russia hacking witchhunt. They figure his experience with entrapment will help him to bag his biggest trophy yet, the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump. That’s the plan at least.

So what are the odds that Trump will get a fair shake in this deal?

How about zero? There’s zero chance that Grand Inquisitor Mueller and his Star Chamber assistants are going to conduct an objective, independent investigation. In fact, the whole Special Counsel meme is just an attempt to dignify the railroading of the Chief Executive.  There’s not much more to it than that. They need these sham legal proceedings to create the impression that the final outcome hasn’t already been decided. But it has already been decided. Trump’s going to be driven from office and there’s not a damn thing he can do about it.  The die has been cast, and Trump came up snake-eyes.

Now, it’s only a matter of time.

Serbia: Monarchists Want King Back On Throne

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By Maja Zivanovic

A monarchist lobby group, the Kingdom of Serbia Association, says it has collected over 120,000 signature of support for the restoration of a king – and plans to submit its petition to parliament soon.

Supporters of the restoration of the Serbian monarchy, abolished by the communists after World War II, have collected over 123,000 signatures of support, which will be submitted to parliament, the Kingdom of Serbia Association said.

The NGO, which operates under the patronage of Prince Aleksandar, the pretender to the throne, launched a petition from November 21 to 27, 2016, and will publish the final number of names after the verification process ends.

“After that, we will submit the initiative to parliament, and in case we have more than 150,000 signatures of citizens with the right to vote, it should lead to an automatic change to the constitution, without a referendum,” the head of the NGO’s Novi Sad branch, Nikola Grbic, said.

Grbic styles himself a lawyer to Prince Peter and Prince Aleksandar, the son of the heir and heir to the throne respectively.

The Karadjordjevic dynasty ruled Serbia and then Yugoslavia during the 19th and 20th centuries with several decades of breaks.

In 1945, the victorious communists under Josip Tito declared a republic in Yugoslavia and the royal family was left in exile.

After the communist system and Yugoslavia collapsed, Prince Aleksandar came back to Serbia in 2001 with his wife. They live today in a former royal palace in Belgrade.

Serbia’s royals used to wield a good deal of political power but Grbic insisted that what they were aiming for now was only a constitutional monarchy.

“The constitutional monarchy means the existence of a system in which the crown … is both above and below policy,” he explained.

Grbic added that the king’s responsibilities would be more like a combination of those that the current President of Serbia and the Ombudsman possess.

“The king would represent all the political parties but also all citizens. He would not be able to interfere in legislative, executive and judicial power but he could contribute to building a lawful state with his criticism or praise,” he said, adding that the crown would be “a cohesive factor of stability”.

Under the current constitution, power is divided between the executive, the legislature and judiciary. The supreme holder of legislative power is parliament.

Grbic noted the kinship of the Serbian royal family to other royal houses, some on the throne, some not. The Prince’s godmother is Britain’s Queen Elizabeth. The Karadjordjevic family also has relations with the dethoned Romanov dynasty in Russia.

According to its official web portal, the association was founded by a group of Belgrade University students in 2008 and was first called the King’s Youth.

Established as a non-profit, non-governmental and non-party organization under the patronage of Prince Aleksandar, it now has more than 18,000 members and around 80 branches throughout Serbia.

The association is planning various awareness-raising activities in the next months, including a friendly football match with a Romanian monarchist association.

According to Grbic, the match will be held on June 11, in honour of the 95th anniversary of the marriage of King Aleksandar of Yugoslavia and his Romanian bride Queen Marie and amid the presence of some Romanian royals.

Putin May Soon Take To Twitter – OpEd

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Vladimir Putin is deeply suspicious of the Internet, viewing it as a source of “disinformation and manipulation,” Ekho Moskvy editor Aleksey Venediktov says ((echo.msk.ru/blog/pressa_echo/1985746-echo/). But he is also a very clever politician who recognizes that there are some things he must adapt himself to, Yevgeny Gontmakher observes.

The Internet is one of those things, the sociologist insists in an interview with Roza Tsvetkova of Nezavisimaya gazeta today, and thus the Kremlin leader is likely to make use of it in various ways, including Youtube interviews and Tweets, in the future – and possibly sooner than anyone now thinks (ng.ru/ng_politics/2017-05-23/9_6993_twitter.html).

Before the electronic age, the sociologist begins, a politician’s success depended on his ability to use oratory and the print media to reach and mobilize voters. After television appeared, he or she had to learn how to use it. “Now there is the Internet,” something no longer “exotic” even in Russia, “a Rubicon has been crossed,” and political leaders must adapt to it.

“For the new generation of Russian politicians,” Gontmakher says, “the Internet is the only variant available to promote himself … A Politicians must be able to interact with people via the Internet, to get their reactions back.” Up to now, however, the number of leaders who can do that can “be counted on one’s fingers.”

Gontmakher says that he “does not exclude that in the nearest future, not in these presidential elections but for example in the next parliamentary ones, television debates, which no longer interest anyone, will be shifted to the Internet, online,” where people will be able to react and far more will watch.

He says that he does not exclude that “in the Internet will be presented some exclusive materials with Putin, perhaps in the form of the Youtube.” Putin is “carefully studying the experience of the American elections,” and so are other (e.g., ng.ru/ng_politics/2017-05-23/9_6993_party.html), as are leaders of the LDPR and the KPRF.

The Internet is one of those irreversible forces, one that has profound consequences for both society and the powers that be. It helps promote the former because “social networks are the most horizontal links, the most civic society.” But for that reason, the powers that be as a vertical find themselves “in a certain sense” at odds with this.

Some among the powers may want to ban it, but doing so in Russia, with its millions of users, would provoke a crisis, Gontmakher says. And thus they must adapt because “to go against the flow would be deeply counter-productive.” And that process of adaptation will only accelerate.

Why isn’t Putin on Twitter now? the sociologist asks rhetorically. The reason likely is that Putin, Medvedev, the ministers and the head of the Presidential Administration are politicians. And for them, the time when as they though politics was only in the offices of those at the top … is already passing – and doing so irreversibly!”

‘Priming The Pump’ Won’t Create Real Wealth – Analysis

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By Frank Shostak*

Once an economy falls into recession many commentators tend to express concern that as a result of the economic slump there are now underutilized capital and labor. Resources that can be used are now made unemployed. It is held that the key factor behind this is an insufficient demand for goods and services.

Once it is accepted that this key factor is associated with insufficient demand these commentators take the view that what is required is to somehow boost overall demand in the economy.

With stronger demand, it is held, idle resources could be employed again. Hence it is recommended that the central bank should adopt a very loose monetary stance in order to strengthen the overall demand for goods and services.

The whole thing appears to be quite simple — boost expenditure on goods and services and this in turn, via the famous Keynesian multiplier, will strengthen overall output in the economy.

This way of thinking is succinctly summarized by Ludwig von Mises,

Here, they say, are plants and farms whose capacity to produce is either not used at all or not to its full extent. Here are piles of unsalable commodities and hosts of unemployed workers. But here are also masses of people who would be lucky if they only could satisfy their wants more amply. All that is lacking is credit. Additional credit would enable the entrepreneurs to resume or to expand production. The unemployed would find jobs again and could buy the products. This reasoning seems plausible. Nonetheless it is utterly wrong.1

What those commentators who advocate monetary pumping to absorb idle resources have overlooked is the fact that these resources have become idle on account of the previous boom brought about by the previous loose monetary policy of the central bank.

As a result of the previous loose monetary stance various non-productive or “bubble” activities, emerged. These activities relied for their continued existence upon the maintenance of that loose monetary policy, which results in the diversion of real wealth from wealth generators toward bubble activities.

A tighter stance of the central bank stops this diversion, thereby reducing the number of marginal, bubble activities and ultimately strengthens the process of wealth generation. Such a stance, however, cannot undo the various misallocations of resources that took place as a result of the prior loose monetary position. The damage that was done cannot be undone in the short term. Once, however, the process of wealth generation gains momentum the expansion in the pool of real wealth permits the absorption of various idle resources.

According to Mises,

Out of the collapse of the boom there is only one way back to a state of affairs in which progressive accumulation of capital safeguards a steady improvement of material well-being: new saving must accumulate the capital goods needed for a harmonious equipment of all branches of production with the capital required. One must provide the capital goods lacking in those branches which were unduly neglected in the boom. Wage rates must drop; people must restrict their consumption temporarily until the capital wasted by malinvestment is restored. Those who dislike these hardships of the readjustment period must abstain in time from credit expansion.2

Furthermore says Mises,

If commodities cannot be sold and workers cannot find jobs, the reason can only be that the prices and wages asked are too high. He who wants to sell his inventories or his capacity to work must reduce his demand until he finds a buyer. Such is the law of the market. Such is the device by means of which the market directs every individual’s activities into those lines in which they can best contribute to the satisfaction of the wants of the consumers.3

Commentators are correct in believing that what prevents the expansion of the production and the utilization of idle resources is the lack of credit. There is, however, the need to emphasize that the credit that is lacking is the productive credit — the one that is fully backed by real wealth. The fact that this type of credit is scarce is the outcome of previous episodes of expansionary monetary mischief by the central bank, which resulted in the diversion of wealth from wealth producers to non-wealth producers.

What most commentators advocate is the expansion of credit out of “thin air,” which the central bank is able to set in motion, either by direct monetary injections or via intervention in the money markets to maintain a lower target interest rate. Such commentators advocate the expansion in credit that is not supported by real wealth.

The expansion in unbacked credit not only cannot revitalize the economy but, on the contrary, will set in motion a further weakening of the process of wealth generation.

Any attempt to “revive” economic activity by means of loose monetary policy will resume the diversion of real wealth from wealth generators to non-wealth generators, thereby weakening the process of real wealth generation.

As long as the pool of real wealth is large enough this type of policy might “work” — the central bank policies appear to be working.

Once, however, the pool is stagnant or declining the “music stops” and no amount of central bank liquidity injection is going to “work.” On the contrary, the more aggressive the central bank’s stance in attempting to revive the economy the worse things will get.

One could argue that, irrespective of the reason for the emergence of idle resources, the role of authorities and in particular the central bank is to pursue policies that will make it possible for a greater use of these resources. However, the employment of resources requires an expansion in the pool of real wealth to engage those resources. This, however, requires an increase in real savings.

Without this increase there will not be sufficient means to facilitate the employment of those idle resources. A loose monetary policy that is aimed at boosting demand will not do the trick, for an increase in demand cannot replace the real savings that are required to recruit such resources.

Some commentators are of the view that through loose monetary policies on the part of the central bank the economy can and will take off on its own, just as adding a little water to a pump (i.e., “priming the pump“) enables water to be pumped out of a well.

This metaphor is misleading since, as we have seen, without the expansion in real savings no expansion in economic activity can take place. Again, pushing more money and, with it, credit unbacked by real wealth, cannot replace the non-existent capital goods that are required in the expansion of wealth that in turn absorbs the unemployed labor and capital.

About the author:
*Frank Shostak’s consulting firm, Applied Austrian School Economics, provides in-depth assessments of financial markets and global economies. Contact: email.

Source:
This article was published by the MISES Institute

  • 1. Ludwig von Mises, Human Action, 3rd rev. ed. (Chicago: Contemporary Books, 1966), p. 577.
  • 2. Ibid., p. 578.
  • 3. Ibid., p. 577.

Computer Code Found That Volkswagen Used To Cheat Emissions Tests

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An international team of researchers has uncovered the mechanism that allowed Volkswagen to circumvent U.S. and European emission tests over at least six years before the Environmental Protection Agency put the company on notice in 2015 for violating the Clean Air Act. During a year-long investigation, researchers found code that allowed a car’s onboard computer to determine that the vehicle was undergoing an emissions test. The computer then activated the car’s emission-curbing systems, reducing the amount of pollutants emitted. Once the computer determined that the test was over, these systems were deactivated.

When the emissions curbing system wasn’t running, cars emitted up to 40 times the amount of nitrogen oxides allowed under EPA regulations.

The team, led by Kirill Levchenko, a computer scientist at the University of California San Diego will present their findings at the 38th IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy in the San Francisco Bay Area on May 22 to 24, 2017.

“We were able to find the smoking gun,” Levchenko said. “We found the system and how it was used.”

Computer scientists obtained copies of the code running on Volkswagen onboard computers from the company’s own maintenance website and from forums run by car enthusiasts. The code was running on a wide range of models, including the Jetta, Golf and Passat, as well as Audi’s A and Q series.

“We found evidence of the fraud right there in public view,” Levchenko said.

During emissions standards tests, cars are placed on a chassis equipped with a dynamometer, which measures the power output of the engine. The vehicle follows a precisely defined speed profile that tries to mimic real driving on an urban route with frequent stops. The conditions of the test are both standardized and public. This essentially makes it possible for manufacturers to intentionally alter the behavior of their vehicles during the test cycle. The code found in Volkswagen vehicles checks for a number of conditions associated with a driving test, such as distance, speed and even the position of the wheel. If the conditions are met, the code directs the onboard computer to activate emissions curbing mechanism when those conditions were met.

A year-long investigation

It all started when computer scientists at Ruhr University, working with independent researcher Felix Domke, teamed up with Levchenko and the research group of computer science professor Stefan Savage at the Jacobs School of Engineering at UC San Diego.

Savage, Levchenko and their team have extensive experience analyzing embedded systems, such as cars’ onboard computers, known as Engine Control Units, for vulnerabilities. The team examined 900 versions of the code and found that 400 of those included information to circumvent emissions tests.

A specific piece of code was labeled as the “acoustic condition”–ostensibly, a way to control the sound the engine makes. But in reality, the label became a euphemism for conditions occurring during an emissions test. The code allowed for as many as 10 different profiles for potential tests. When the computer determined the car was undergoing a test, it activated emissions-curbing systems, which reduced the amount of nitrogen oxide emitted.

“The Volkswagen defeat device is arguably the most complex in automotive history,” Levchenko said.

Researchers found a less sophisticated circumventing ploy for the Fiat 500X. That car’s onboard computer simply allows its emissions-curbing system to run for the first 26 minutes and 40 seconds after the engine starts– roughly the duration of many emissions tests.

Researchers note that for both Volkswagen and Fiat, the vehicles’ Engine Control Unit is manufactured by automotive component giant Robert Bosch. Car manufacturers then enable the code by entering specific parameters.

Diesel engines pose special challenges for automobile manufacturers because their combustion process produces more particulates and nitrogen oxides than gasoline engines. To curb emissions from these engines, the vehicle’s onboard computer must sometimes sacrifice performance or efficiency for compliance.

The study draws attention to the regulatory challenges of verifying software-controlled systems that may try to hide their behavior and calls for a new breed of techniques that work in an adversarial setting.

“Dynamometer testing is just not enough anymore,” Levchenko said.


New ‘Sperm Radar’ Test Could Uncover Secrets About Male Infertility

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Scientists at the University of Sheffield have developed a new technique to examine human sperm without killing them — helping to improve the diagnosis of fertility problems.

The Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy technique, uses powerful magnets and works like radar by firing pulses of energy at the sperm sample inside a purpose built scanner and then listening to the echoed signal by the molecules in response. This could help to distinguish between populations of good or poor sperm.

Unlike other more destructive examination methods, the low energy pulses do not damage sperm, meaning they could potentially go on to be used in IVF treatment. This is similar to a technique that doctors use to capture images of cells and tissues inside the body.

The novel approach was pioneered by physicists from the University of Sheffield’s Academic Unit of Radiology working together with fertility experts from the University’s Academic Unit of Reproductive and Developmental Medicine in the interdisciplinary spermNMR project.

Professor Martyn Paley, from the University’s Department of Infection, Immunity and Cardiovascular Disease, said: “The technique of Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy has been previously used to examine the molecular composition of many cells and tissues in other diseases such as cancer, but it has never previously been used to examine live sperm. As such, these results are a world first.”

During the study, scientists examined fresh sperm samples from healthy volunteers and patients for just over an hour.

From the data gathered scientists were able to build up a profile of the molecules present in the sperm and how they differ between samples.

Professor Allan Pacey, fertility expert from the University of Sheffield, who was part of the spermNMR study team, said: “Most of the advanced techniques we have available to examine the molecules in sperm end up destroying them in the process by either adding stains or by breaking open their membranes to look at the contents.

“To potentially have a technique which can examine the molecular structure of sperm without damaging them is really exciting.”

One of the technical challenges that the team faced was how to detect the molecules that were present in sperm rather than those present in semen, the fluid in which sperm are ejaculated.

To do this, the team examined a number of ‘sperm washing’ techniques that are currently used to prepare sperm for IVF. They found that by spinning the samples very fast in a centrifuge several times they were able to reduce the background noise from molecules in semen to a point where they could reliably detect the ones from sperm.

Research Associate Dr Sarah Calvert from the spermNMR team, said: “Washing the sperm in a centrifuge is a critical step for this technique to work as any contamination from seminal plasma can also be detected by the scanner. But by adding an extra spin cycle to the techiques that are commonly used in IVF we were able to minimize that contamination.”

The results of the study show that a number of molecules such as Choline (vitamin-like essential nutrient) and Glycerophosphocholine (a natural choline compound found in the brain), Lipids (common components of sperm cell membranes) and Lactate (an end product of cellular energy usage) were significantly different between samples of sperm separated into ‘good’ and ‘poor’ populations.

Research Fellow Dr Steven Reynolds explained: “The fact we can detect differences in molecular composition between samples of ‘good’ and ‘poor’ sperm is really significant because it opens up the opportunity for us to develop a novel biomarker to help with diagnosis.

“Or it might one day allow us to design specific therapies for men with poor sperm that might help give them a boost.”

Morally Challenged Americans – OpEd

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Two fascinating Gallup polls have been released this month on the subject of morality. I will address the sexual issues that were surveyed.

Americans believe the following are morally acceptable: birth control (91%); divorce (73%); sex between an unmarried man and woman (69%); gay or lesbian relations (63%); having a baby outside of marriage (62%); abortion (43%); sex between teenagers (36%); pornography (36%); polygamy (17%); extramarital affairs (9%). These findings were posted May 11.

These percentages were never higher for birth control, divorce, gay or lesbian relations, having a baby out of wedlock, pornography, and polygamy. The one piece of good news is on abortion: 49% say it is morally wrong.

Findings from May 22 show that 81% of the public says the state of moral values is “only fair” or “poor.” Is the state of moral values getting worse? According to 77% of the public, the answer is yes.

“Even liberals,” Gallup says, “who seemingly should be pleased with the growing number of Americans who agree with their point of view on the morality of prominent social issues, are more likely to say things are getting worse than getting better.”

There are a number of things going on here that command our attention.

Americans are increasingly non-judgmental about sexual relations between consenting adults, but they are not happy with the state of moral values. This paradox suggests that more Americans are morally challenged than ever before.

To cite one issue, it is one thing to say that having a baby outside of marriage is morally acceptable, quite another to say it is a good thing. There’s the rub: Most Americans know someone who is in that situation and don’t want to appear condemnatory, but they also recognize that this is not a good condition to be in, either for the mother or the child.

We need to be mature about this. If we want more of something, we offer rewards and incentives; if we want less, we employ negative sanctions and stigmatize. This is a sociological truism.

For example, we don’t have a problem stigmatizing smokers, and as a result fewer are smoking today than was true a half century ago when smoking was socially acceptable. We want to reduce out-of-wedlock births, but we don’t want to stigmatize the mother or the child (the father usually escapes sanctions). The result is we have a higher rate of out-of-wedlock births than we did a half century ago when such a condition was socially unacceptable.

It is our immaturity that accounts for our morally challenged condition. As long as we reject the stick of stigma to curb conditions that we deplore, there will be little progress in stemming them.

Liberals are the most morally confused of any segment of the population. They are delighted that their “tolerant” views on sexuality have caught on with most Americans, but they are nonetheless unhappy with the state of moral values.

They want to have it both ways—more liberal attitudes on sexuality and less moral problems—but they cannot. Not until they connect the dots and realize that the attitudes which they promote engender the behaviors  that they deplore, will progress be made. As usual, liberals get it wrong.

Ron Wyden: Administration’s Budget Proposal ‘A Cynical Assault On American Ideas’– OpEd

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This budget uses “Madoff math” and failed economic theories that will burden future generations. This proposal is more than numbers on a lopsided ledger – it’s a cynical assault on the fundamental idea that Americans should be there for one another when it counts. Gutting food security programs and financial assistance for Americans who need a helping hand is an attempt to rip apart the last threads of our social safety net. Nearly seven million Oregonians have counted on SNAP benefits over the last decade, but this proposal would throw working families off SNAP when they can least afford it.

Trump’s budget breaks his promise not to touch Social Security, which at its core is lifeline insurance for Americans who can no longer work, not just in retirement, but also due to a disability. It also slashes Medicaid by over $600 billion beyond the damage done by Trumpcare, further threatening pediatric care, the nursing home benefit, special education programs in schools, and other health care like substance misuse treatment.

This proposal takes from the playbook of Betsy DeVos, who has launched a full-fledged attack on public education in America. Robbing public schools of scarce taxpayer dollars flies in the face of America’s long-time, common-sense investment in education for all Americans. And by dismantling student loan programs that made it possible for many people to get a college education, this proposal throws more roadblocks in front of young Americans who work hard with the hope of one day getting ahead.

Additionally, Trump’s budget slashes resources for the Environmental Protection Agency to clean up industrial waste and protect clean air and clean water for American communities. It would also sell off most of the Bonneville Power Administration, increasing costs for tens of thousands of Oregon homes and businesses. I successfully fought Republicans’ efforts more than a decade ago to privatize Bonneville Power, and I will fight this misguided attempt. Public power customers in the Pacific Northwest have paid for the system and their investment should not be put up for sale.

I’m putting this budget where it belongs – in the trash can.

Senate Panel Issues Two More Subpoenas To Flynn

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General Michael Flynn has another chance to release subpoenaed documents before possibly being held in contempt of Congress, the Senate Intelligence Committee’s leadership said as two new subpoenas were announced.

Following a closed-door intelligence meeting on Tuesday, Committee Chairman Senator Richard Burr (R-North Carolina) and Vice Chairman Senator Mark Warner (D-Virginia) told reporters the committee has issued new subpoenas to compel President Donald Trump’s former national security advisor to produce documents as they investigate alleged Russian interference in the 2016 election.

On Monday, Flynn’s attorney, Robert Kelner, sent a letter to Burr and Warner, informing them that Flynn was invoking his Fifth Amendment constitutional right against self-incrimination in order to avoid releasing documents.

In response, Burr and Warner said the committee has been reviewing a range of options to compel Flynn to release the documents.

First, Warner said the committee is directing the new subpoenas at two of Flynn’s businesses because they do not have the right to plead the Fifth.

“While we disagree with General Flynn’s lawyer’s interpretation of taking the Fifth, it is even more clear that a business does not have a right to take the Fifth if it’s a corporation,” Warner said.

One subpoena has been served and another is in the process of being served, the senators added.

The committee also sent a letter to Flynn’s lawyer on Tuesday, questioning the legal basis for Flynn’s refusal to produce the subpoenaed documents. They also addressed Kelner’s complaint that the original subpoena was not specific enough.

“If in fact there’s not a response, we’ll seek additional counsel advice on how to proceed forward. At the end of that option is a contempt charge, and I’ve said that everything is on the table,” Burr said. “That is not our preference today. We would like to hear from Gen. Flynn. We’d like to see his documents. We’d like him to tell his story because he publicly said ‘I’ve got a story to tell.’ We’re allowing him that opportunity to do it.”

The only option that is not on the table, Burr said, would be immunity.

“It’s a decision that the committee has made that we’re not at the appropriate avenue in a potential criminal investigation. As valuable as Gen. Flynn might be to our counterintelligence investigation, we don’t believe that it’s our place today to offer him immunity from this committee,” he added.

The committee issued a subpoena on May 10, requesting Flynn produce detailed information about any meetings he may have had with Russian officials as well as any communications the Trump campaign may have had “in any way related to Russia” during the election.

Responding to the subpoena, Kelner’s letter to Burr and Warner claims Flynn was eager to “give a full account of the facts.”

However, Kelner said, Flynn would not produce the documents, saying that “even ‘truthful responses of an innocent witness’ may provide the Government with evidence that could be used against the witness producing documents where the act of production itself is testimonial in nature.”

On April 28, the committee initially subpoenaed Flynn for documents relevant to the Committee’s investigation into alleged Russian interference in the 2016 election but he refused to release them.

“We’ve been very specific in the documents now that we’ve requested from General Flynn,” Burr said.

Burr said all options are on the table if Flynn does not respond to the subpoenas, including the possibility of a contempt charge.

How Sherpas Have Evolved Superhuman Energy Efficiency

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Sherpas have evolved to become superhuman mountain climbers, extremely efficient at producing the energy to power their bodies even when oxygen is scarce, suggests new research published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

The findings could help scientists develop new ways of treating hypoxia – lack of oxygen – in patients. A significant proportion of patients in intensive care units (ICUs) experience potentially life-threatening hypoxia, a complication associated with conditions from haemorrhage to sepsis.

When oxygen is scarce, the body is forced to work harder to ensure that the brain and muscles receive enough of this essential nutrient. One of the most commonly observed ways the body has of compensating for a lack of oxygen is to produce more red blood cells, which are responsible for carrying blood around the body to our organs. This makes the blood thicker, however, so it flows more slowly and is more likely to clog up blood vessels.

Mountain climbers are often exposed to low levels of oxygen, particularly at high altitudes. This is why they often have to take time during long ascents to acclimatise to their surroundings, giving the body enough time to adapt itself and prevent altitude sickness. In addition, they may take oxygen supplies to supplement the thin air.

Scientists have known for some time that people have different responses to high altitudes. While most climbers require additional oxygen to scale Mount Everest, whose peak is 8,848m above sea level, a handful of climbers have managed to do so without. Most notably, Sherpas, an ethnic group from the mountain regions of Nepal, are able to live at high altitude with no apparent consequences to their health – as a result, many act as guides to support expeditions in the Himalayas, and two Sherpas are known to have reached the summit of Everest an incredible 21 times.

Previous studies have suggested differences between Sherpas and people living in non-high altitude areas, known collectively as ‘lowlanders’, including fewer red blood cells in Sherpas at altitude, but higher levels of nitric oxide, a chemical that opens up blood vessels and keeps blood flowing.

Evidence suggests that the first humans were present on the Tibetan Plateau around 30,000 years ago, with the first permanent settlers appearing between 6,000-9,000 years ago. This raises the possibility that they have evolved to adapt to the extreme environment. This is supported by recent DNA studies, which have found clear genetic differences between Sherpa and Tibetan populations on the one hand and lowlanders on the other. Some of these differences were in their mitochondrial DNA – the genetic code that programmes mitochondria, the body’s ‘batteries’ that generate our energy.

To understand the biological differences between the Sherpas and lowlanders, a team of researchers led by scientists at the University of Cambridge followed two groups as they made a gradual ascent up to Everest Base Camp at an elevation of 5,300m.

The study was part of Xtreme Everest, a project that aims to improve outcomes for people who become critically ill by understanding how our bodies respond to the extreme altitude on the world’s highest mountain. This year marks 10 years since the group’s first expedition to Everest.

The lowlanders group comprised 10 investigators selected to operate the Everest Base Camp laboratory, where the mitochondrial studies were carried out by James Horscroft and Aleks Kotwica, two PhD students at the University of Cambridge. They took samples, including blood and muscle biopsies, in London to give a baseline measurement, then again when they first arrived at Base Camp and a third time after two months at Base Camp. These samples were compared with those taken from 15 Sherpas, all of whom were living in relatively low-lying areas, rather than being the ‘elite’ high altitude climbers. The Sherpas’ baseline measurements were taken at Kathmandu, Nepal.

The researchers found that even at baseline, the Sherpas’ mitochondria were more efficient at using oxygen to produce ATP, the energy that powers our bodies.

As predicted from genetic differences, they also found lower levels of fat oxidation in the Sherpas. Muscles have two ways to get energy – from sugars, such as glucose, or from burning fat (fat oxidation). The majority of the time we get our energy from the latter source; however, this is inefficient, so at times of physical stress, such as when exercising, we take our energy from sugars. The low levels of fat oxidation again suggest that the Sherpas are more efficient at generating energy.

The measurements taken at altitude rarely changed from the baseline measurement in the Sherpas, suggesting that they were born with such differences. However, for lowlanders, measurements tended to change after time spent at altitude, suggesting that their bodies were acclimatising and beginning to mimic the Sherpas’.

One of the key differences, however, was in phosphocreatine levels. Phosphocreatine is an energy reserve that acts as a buffer to help muscles contract when no ATP is present. In lowlanders, after two months at high altitude, phosphocreatine levels crash, whereas in Sherpas levels actually increase.

In addition, the team found that while levels of free radicals increase rapidly at high altitude, at least initially, levels in Sherpas are very low. Free radicals are molecules created by a lack of oxygen that can be potentially damaging to cells and tissue.

“Sherpas have spent thousands of years living at high altitudes, so it should be unsurprising that they have adapted to become more efficient at using oxygen and generating energy,” said Dr Andrew Murray from the University of Cambridge, the study’s senior author. “When those of us from lower-lying countries spend time at high altitude, our bodies adapt to some extent to become more ‘Sherpa-like’, but we are no match for their efficiency.”

The team say the findings could provide valuable insights to explain why some people suffering from hypoxia fare much worse in emergency situations that others.

“Although lack of oxygen might be viewed as an occupational hazard for mountain climbers, for people in intensive care units it can be life threatening,” explained Professor Mike Grocott, Chair of Xtreme Everest from the University of Southampton. “One in five people admitted to intensive care in the UK each year die and even those that survive might never regain their previous quality of life.

“By understanding how Sherpas are able to survive with low levels of oxygen, we can get clues to help us identify those at greatest risk in ICUs and inform the development of better treatments to help in their recovery.”

The 10th anniversary of the original Caudwell Xtreme Everest expedition will be marked this month by a conference at the Royal Society of Medicine, and an event open to the public on the evening of 23rd May at the Royal Geographical Society entitled A Celebration of Six Decades of Medicine on Everest.

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