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Hindu Group Criticizes Permit Requirement For Yoga In Vancouver Parks

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A US-based Hindu group is critical of City of Vancouver’s permit and insurance requirement for yoga classes in City’s parks, “whether you charge a fee or not”.

Hindu statesman Rajan Zed, in a statement wondered that while many cities in USA were offering free yoga classes in their parks; Vancouver (Canada), which claims to be “building inclusive communities” and “one of the best places on earth to live”, had imposed permit-insurance requirement on multi-benefit yoga.

It seemed like an unnecessary obtrusion and burdensome on yoga in Vancouver, and apparently a step in the negative direction, Zed, who is President of Universal Society of Hinduism, indicated.

Rajan Zed urged Vancouver City Council and Mayor Gregor Robertson, and Vancouver Board of Parks and Recreation and its Chair Michael Wiebe, to reconsider and exclude yoga from the permit-insurance requirement in all the over 230 public parks.

Yoga, referred as “a living fossil”, was a mental and physical discipline by means of which the human-soul (jivatman) united with universal-soul (parmatman), and regulating it was kind of a religious infringement. Yoga was for everybody to share and benefit from, whose traces went back to around 2,000 BCE to Indus Valley civilization, Zed noted.

Rajan Zed further said that yoga, although introduced and nourished by Hinduism, was a world heritage and liberation powerhouse to be utilized by all. According to Patanjali who codified it in Yoga Sutra, yoga was a methodical effort to attain perfection, through the control of the different elements of human nature, physical and psychical.

According to US National Institutes of Health, yoga may help one to feel more relaxed, be more flexible, improve posture, breathe deeply, and get rid of stress. According to a “2016 Yoga in America Study”, about 37 million Americans (which included many celebrities) now practice yoga; and yoga is strongly correlated with having a positive self image. Yoga was the repository of something basic in the human soul and psyche, Zed added.

Moreover, per City’s website: “Permits are not possible at all parks, at all times. We do not give permits for private recreation within Stanley Park and the seawalls, nor on many of the beach park locations.” Applications require a deposit fee and per hour permit fee plus taxes, even for non-profit groups. The City also requires that you carry liability insurance.


US And Iran Edge Closer To Confrontation In Syria

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By Joyce Karam

The six-year cold peace that the US and Iran have operationally maintained in Syria could be approaching an end as their rival strategies collide in the east and south of Syria.

This silent truce between US and Iran effectively broke on May 18 when the US-led coalition carried out its first airstrike against an Iranian proxy group near the base of Al-Tanf, close to Syria’s border with Iraq and Jordan.

The base hosts US advisers and local forces that Washington is training in its battle to take back Daesh-held territory. But the strike, experts agreed, is a harbinger of a period of more confrontation between US and Iran as their agendas seem bound to clash in a post-Daesh Syria.

Fight for geopolitics and territory

In a briefing from the US Defense Department on Wednesday, Air Force Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian defined the May 18 strike as a move to protect pro-US forces. “First thing I would say is I’m concerned about any threat to our forces on the ground,” he said.

Harrigian did not apologize or shy away from further action against Iranian proxies if they become a threat to the US-trained forces. “I’m just going to reiterate the fact that we will protect our forces… we will do what it takes to ensure that our ground forces, if they’re threatened, we’re going to take the necessary action,” he said.

The operational dynamics on the ground in Syria are inching Tehran and Washington closer to a confrontation said Nicholas A. Heras, a fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) in Washington.

“The IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) is running Iranian foreign policy toward Syria, and the IRGC is acutely aware that building US military presence in southern and eastern Syria would take significant territory out of Assad’s reach,” Heras told Arab News.

In essence “Iran does not want Assad to be left with nothing to claim on the monopoly board that is Eastern Syria,” which explains the recent buildup of pro-Iran militias in the area according to the expert.

Faysal Itani, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, told Arab News the US strike was “simply a move by Washington to enforce basic principles that it will protect its forces and local allies, including in areas where there are ongoing offensive operations.”

In the bigger scheme, the fight is one for leverage and territory, explained Heras. “The Trump administration is actively looking for options to utilize the counter-Daesh campaign, and the territory conquered by US-backed (forces), to prevent Iran from achieving its objectives in Syria.” Heras added that “the US wants to build maximum leverage on Bashar Assad and his friends Iran and Russia, and the best way to do that now is by capturing and ruling territory in eastern Syria.”

Ripe for escalation?

Itani defined the US and Iran as “adversaries in a zero-sum geopolitical competition,” but with limitations in Syria. In this latest development Itani said “the US has an anti-Daesh mission, and fighting it appropriately means taking steps that infringe on Iranian territorial and political interests in Syria.”

Another clash of interest is in Iran’s fear “that the US will support a large Saudi and GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) stabilization mission in eastern Syria,” said Heras. The expert added that “Iran sees the US counter-Daesh campaign as a tool for the Arab Gulf countries to enter Syria in lockstep with the United States.”

Both Heras and Itani agreed that Iran will continue to try to test US limits and its growing zone of influence in eastern Syria. “Escalation is ripe, and the US would most likely win that encounter,” said Heras. Itani cautioned that despite Washington’s military superiority “Iran can complicate things tremendously in Syria and elsewhere.”

Trump And The Mideast: Looking At The Bigger Picture – OpEd

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It is too easy to forget all the fearmongering that swept through the Arab world and among Arab activists in anticipation of US President Donald Trump’s surprising election victory last November and the impact it would have on the future of “peace.” All the predictions were critical, portending an ominous shift toward Israel and against Palestinian and Arab interests.

Pundits and partisan political activists warned that Trump would undermine peace, seal the coffin on Palestinian rights and undermine Middle East stability, creating havoc that would fuel extremism. Yet we have seen the opposite. Trump not only demonstrated his support for Palestinian rights, but also went to great lengths to prove that he is committed to strengthening ties with the moderate leadership of the Arab world.

Rather than doom and gloom, he has given the Arab world and Palestinians a vision of hope and promise. Trump’s style contrasts with that of his predecessor Barack Obama, who began his presidency with a “New Beginnings” speech to the Muslim world in June 2009 from Cairo that was filled with optimism and hope, but lacked substantive follow-through.

More Palestinians died, more settlements were built and more rights were lost while Obama was president than under any prior administration, demonstrating that his style of flowery rhetoric and good intentions did not always achieve much.

Trump is a president of tough words who does not easily share details of his plans, which is a good thing. Too often, Obama and others would openly explain how they hoped to achieve something, only to be confounded by opposition forces that were handed detailed blueprints on how to be obstructionists.

Obama was predictable. Trump is not. Obama was measured by his words. Trump clearly wants to be measured by his achievements. That is the difference between a politician and a businessman. A politician seeks applause and praise before achievement. A businessman seeks achievement first, while treating every challenge as an important negotiation.

What was the most significant achievement of Trump’s first foreign trip as US president to the Arab world this past week? It was not the $110 billion deal he signed with Saudi Arabia that will benefit both countries, although that was important.

It was not that he managed to shatter the perception that he would embrace Israel tightly at the expense of Palestinian rights. The fact that Trump went to Bethlehem to meet with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was a significant contradiction to the false expectations pawned by his political critics.

The most significant aspect of his trip — during which he met with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Palestine and Jordan, then participated in a summit of 50 Arab and Muslim nations — is that Trump rubbished the lie that he is anti-Muslim. How can he be anti-Muslim when his first official overseas trip began with respect, agreement and empowerment in Saudi Arabia, the heart of the Muslim world?

How can he be called anti-Muslim when he reinforced trade with the Kingdom and the Muslim world, and signed a 28-point agreement covering everything from trade to security, confronting extremism by Iran, Syria and Hezbollah, and strengthening Iraq and Lebanon?

It makes no sense because criticism of Trump is driven by the politics of failure. Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton may have talked the talk of Arab and Muslim needs, but they failed to back up their words with substantive action. Palestinians and Muslims may not see how Trump will support their nations, but his actions so far paint a clearer portrait of a president who is not what his critics claim him to be.

His priority is to defeat extremism and terrorist violence. Instead of worrying about how his words will be interpreted by his friends, he has proven he can take the actions his enemies fear. It is not Palestinians, Arabs or Muslims who should fear Trump’s policies, but extremists and fanatics such as the regimes in Iran and Syria, as well as Hezbollah.

Audit Shows US Failed To Track $1 Billion In Arms Transfer To Iraq

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The US army failed to account for military equipment and vehicles worth more than $1 billion that were intended for the Iraqi government forces, according to a 2016 audit by the Pentagon’s inspector general.

The army’s 1st Theater Sustainment Command, which serves as a logistics headquarters, “did not have accurate, up-to-date records on the quantity and location of equipment on hand in Kuwait and Iraq,” said the audit report.

Originally marked “for official use only”, it was obtained and released by Amnesty International (AI) on Wednesday through a Freedom of Information Act request.

AI researcher Patrick Wilcken said in a statement that the report “provides a worrying insight into the US Army’s flawed – and potentially dangerous – system for controlling millions of dollars’ worth of arms transfers to a hugely volatile region.

“It makes for especially sobering reading given the long history of leakage of US arms to multiple armed groups committing atrocities in Iraq,” including Daesh terror group, Wilcken said.

The arms were going to the Iraqi government in support of its fight against Daesh, as part of a Congress-approved fund of $1.6 billion in 2015.

Original source

Putin’s Homage To Cyrillic Makes Bulgarians See Red

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By Mariya Cheresheva

Vladimir Putin’s claim, made at a meeting with the Macedonian President, that the Slavic alphabet came to Russia from Macedonia, has not gone down well in Bulgaria.

А number of Bulgarian ministers and diplomats have condemned Russian President Vladimir Putin for telling his Macedonian colleague George Ivanov on May 24 – the Day of Slavic Literacy – that the Cyrillic script came from Macedonia.

“The Slavic alphabet and literature came to us from Macedonian soil”, Putin told Ivanov during the Macedonian President’s visit to Moscow.

In response, Ivanov paid a tribute to the Slavic educators and saints, the brothers Cyril and Methodius, founders of the Glagolitic alphabet, which served as a basis for Cyrillic, who are “our spiritual teachers”.

Bulgaria, which also celebrated the Day of Bulgarian Education, Culture and the Slavonic Alphabet on Tuesday, disagreed with this reading of history.

“The creation of literacy happened due to the will, and participation, of the Bulgarian state and it is hardly a coincidence that the Bulgarian ruler Boris I is present in all ancient Bulgarian books as Boris-Mihail – the Baptizer, who introduced the faith and literacy,” Bulgarian Foreign Minister Ekaterinaa Zahaieva wrote on Facebook on Wednesday.

“This is not only our holiday, and the Cyrillic script is shared. But it has to be known that we remember our history and we are proud of it,” Zaharieva added.

Bulgaria’s Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister, Krasimir Karakachanov – a nationalist and the author of several books on Macedonia, a land which Bulgarians nationalists have long laid claim to, also accused Putin of misinterpeting history.

“I am surprised that the President of the largest Slavic country is not familiar with the history of the Slavic nations. Russia, which talks about Slavonity, and about Orthodoxy, does not know history,” Karakachanov told NOVA TV on Thursday.

Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Boyko Borissov was milder in his reaction, merely telling reporters on Wednesday that arguing about the distant past to establish “who came from where to bring the alphabet” was is not a “European approach”.

“The European way is to say that thanks to Holy brothers Cyril and Methodius … that nearly 300 million [people] read and write [Cyrillic] and enrich European culture,” Borissov said.

Ilian Vassilev, a former Bulgarian ambassador to Moscow, accused Putin of “playing with Serbia and Macedonia” in order to increase pressure on Sofia.

“When Putin talks about history in this way, this means current politics which lays on the Russian imperial traditions,” he wrote for Bulgaria Analytica.

Bulgaria’s ex-ambassador to Macedonia also expressed anger on Facebook, calling Putin’s statement “a provocation against Bulgaria”.

The Cyrillic script, which dates from the 9th century AD, is used across parts of Eastern Europe and North and Central Asia. It is generally, or very widely, used in Serbia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, the Serb entity in Bosnia, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus – as well as by the large Russian diaspora in other former Soviet republics.

Bulgaria developed early Cyrillic on the basis of Cyril and Methodius’s Glagolitic alphabet during the first Bulgarian state in the 9th century AD, shortly after the population was baptized under Boris I.

Twenty-Seven Hours: Donald Trump In Israel – OpEd

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It was time to do the Zionist boogie within a mere period of 27 hours, and anyone wishing to see two muggers of history enjoying each other’s company found themselves peering at Donald Trump of the United States, and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, nearly arm in arm on the recent tilt in US policy. “We understand each other,” effused the Israeli leader, “and so much of the things that we wish to accomplish for both our countries.”

Not that Washington had been that savage in reneging on its general policy on Israel during the Obama years. Israel was still deemed firm bosom pal and supposed beacon of democracy in a sea of Arab savagery. One could hardly count the various gestures on the part of the Obama administration, notably those taken in the second term, as firm, sharp turns.

True, the Obama administration had veered at points, paying lip service to international law and the questioned status of the Israeli settlements. There had been a registered abstention in the UN Security Council. But effectualness was nowhere to be seen.

Notwithstanding that, the actions of the administration even as Trump was readying to move into the White House provoked Netanyahu, who was also in a habit of turning on the issue of whether the two-state solution ever had legs.

Any Trump promise comes with hazards, the most notable of which is flipping rapid change. It soon became clear, even within the short time the president was going to spend in Israel, that dangerous, even scandalous excitement was looming.

The issue about whether Trump had disclosed classified material to Russian delegates on Israeli intelligence capabilities reared its curious head, and was beaten down. “Just so you understand, I have never mentioned the word or the name Israel.”[1]

Nothing about Trump is ever lofty. The philosophy of the gut and instinct prevail, a situation that is bound to provoke controversy. The supremely vulgar Israeli MP Oren Hazan, being a bird of such a feather, ploughed through in a successful effort to take a “selfie” with Trump. Not even Netanyahu could stop him.

Nor should he have. Hazan had been accused in a televised report in 2015 of pimping and drug taking, a situation which led to his suspension as deputy speaker of the Knesset. In December that same year, he was suspended for one month from any parliamentary activity after unwarranted behaviour towards a colleague with a disability. Such a fine resume would sail well in Trumpland.

The gut philosophy is certainly baffling seasoned operatives on the ground. Having expressed, in warm terms, his desire that the Israeli capital move from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, doubts have crept in. An unnamed senior White House official told Bloomberg that, “We don’t think it would be wise to do it at this time.”[2] There would be no provocations at a time “when everyone’s playing real nice.”

Nathan Thrall, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, suggests that “both Israeli and Palestinian leaders – including Netanyahu – are made very nervous by Trump.”[3] The baby risks being thrown with the bath water, and the diplomats and various politicians find themselves at odds with the status quo which emphasized paralysis over effort. The only thing to do is utter niceties and sweet words – for the moment.

Worried that the ground might be shifting before the spectre of the “ultimate deal” on peace, former Likud member Moshe Feiglin fears that the Trump-Netanyahu association would spell doom for Israel, fuming at his prime minister for pushing “Israel’s strategic situation into the depths of an abyss that we have never known.”[4] Such dabbling with Trump would thrill the progressives. “Only Likud can fulfil the dreams of the most radical left.”

On this reality show in the Holy Land, the Trump display reduces history to show and spectacle, usually within the shortest of bursts. This all came to a delightful head in the visit to Yad Vashem, where heads of state are scrutinised for their obeisance to the Holocaust credo. What words of grave import would Trump come up with? In all likelihood, it would have to be in less than 140 characters.

As a Presidential candidate, Barack Obama visited the memorial in 2008, and got on the horse of history to survey the world. The words in the guest book were lengthy, contemplating this “powerful reminder of man’s potential for great evil, but also our capacity to rise up from tragedy and remake our world.”

In his 2013 speech at the memorial, now as president, Obama spoke of how “our sons and daughters are not born to hate, they are taught to hate. So let us fill their young hearts with the same understanding and compassion that we hope others have for them.”

Trump, in contrast, delivered a more trimmed version, still sneaking in the necessary punch of horror: “Millions of wonderful and beautiful lives, men, women and children were extinguished as part of a systematic attempt to eliminate the Jewish people.” Netanyahu’s response almost broke the solemnity with unintended satire, thanking the US president for a speech “that in so few words said so much.”

In the guest book of Israel’s national Holocaust memorial were penned words seemingly screaming in their self-referential, adolescent awe: “IT IS A GREAT HONOR TO BE HERE WITH ALL OF MY FRIENDS – SO AMAZING & WILL NEVER FORGET!”

As Amir Tibon would conclude at the end, the first visit to Israel as the president of the United States saw Trump offer a diet to the Israeli people irresistible though unhealthy. “It consisted almost entirely of sugar and sweets, with very little ‘protein’ in the form of actual substance.”[5]

Notes:
[1] http://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/22/politics/trump-israel-russia-intelligence/

[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-05-17/trump-said-to-rule-out-moving-israel-embassy-to-jerusalem

[3] https://www.vice.com/en_au/article/trumps-constant-embarrassing-gaffes-in-israel-wont-hurt-him

[4] https://www.facebook.com/JewishLeadership/posts/10154967988673058

[5] http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.791207

US Regulators Greatly Underestimate Potential For Nuclear Disaster

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The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) relied on faulty analysis to justify its refusal to adopt a critical measure for protecting Americans from the occurrence of a catastrophic nuclear-waste fire at any one of dozens of reactor sites around the country, according to an article in the May 26 issue of Science magazine. Fallout from such a fire could be considerably larger than the radioactive emissions from the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan.

Published by researchers from Princeton University and the Union of Concerned Scientists, the article argues that NRC inaction leaves the public at high risk from fires in spent-nuclear-fuel cooling pools at reactor sites. The pools — water-filled basins that store and cool used radioactive fuel rods — are so densely packed with nuclear waste that a fire could release enough radioactive material to contaminate an area twice the size of New Jersey. On average, radioactivity from such an accident could force approximately 8 million people to relocate and result in $2 trillion in damages.

These catastrophic consequences, which could be triggered by a large earthquake or a terrorist attack, could be largely avoided by regulatory measures that the NRC refuses to implement. Using a biased regulatory analysis, the agency excluded the possibility of an act of terrorism as well as the potential for damage from a fire beyond 50 miles of a plant. Failing to account for these and other factors led the NRC to significantly underestimate the destruction such a disaster could cause.

“The NRC has been pressured by the nuclear industry, directly and through Congress, to low-ball the potential consequences of a fire because of concerns that increased costs could result in shutting down more nuclear power plants,” said paper co-author Frank von Hippel, a senior research physicist at Princeton’s Program on Science and Global Security (SGS), based at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. “Unfortunately, if there is no public outcry about this dangerous situation, the NRC will continue to bend to the industry’s wishes.”

Von Hippel’s co-authors are Michael Schoeppner, a former postdoctoral researcher at Princeton’s SGS, and Edwin Lyman, a senior scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists.

Spent-fuel pools were brought into the spotlight following the March 2011 nuclear disaster in Fukushima, Japan. A 9.0-magnitude earthquake caused a tsunami that struck the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, disabling the electrical systems necessary for cooling the reactor cores. This led to core meltdowns at three of the six reactors at the facility, hydrogen explosions, and a release of radioactive material.

“The Fukushima accident could have been a hundred times worse had there been a loss of the water covering the spent fuel in pools associated with each reactor,” von Hippel said. “That almost happened at Fukushima in Unit 4.”

In the aftermath of the Fukushima disaster, the NRC considered proposals for new safety requirements at U.S. plants. One was a measure prohibiting plant owners from densely packing spent-fuel pools, requiring them to expedite transfer of all spent fuel that has cooled in pools for at least five years to dry storage casks, which are inherently safer. Densely packed pools are highly vulnerable to catching fire and releasing huge amounts of radioactive material into the atmosphere.

The NRC analysis found that a fire in a spent-fuel pool at an average nuclear reactor site would cause $125 billion in damages, while expedited transfer of spent fuel to dry casks could reduce radioactive releases from pool fires by 99 percent. However, the agency decided the possibility of such a fire is so unlikely that it could not justify requiring plant owners to pay the estimated cost of $50 million per pool.

The NRC cost-benefit analysis assumed there would be no consequences from radioactive contamination beyond 50 miles from a fire. It also assumed that all contaminated areas could be effectively cleaned up within a year. Both of these assumptions are inconsistent with experience after the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents.

In two previous articles, von Hippel and Schoeppner released figures that correct for these and other errors and omissions. They found that millions of residents in surrounding communities would have to relocate for years, resulting in total damages of $2 trillion — nearly 20 times the NRC’s result. Considering the nuclear industry is only legally liable for $13.6 billion, thanks to the Price Anderson Act of 1957, U.S. taxpayers would have to cover the remaining costs.

The authors point out that if the NRC does not take action to reduce this danger, Congress has the authority to fix the problem. Moreover, the authors suggest that states that provide subsidies to uneconomical nuclear reactors within their borders could also play a constructive role by making those subsidies available only for plants that agreed to carry out expedited transfer of spent fuel.

“In far too many instances, the NRC has used flawed analysis to justify inaction, leaving millions of Americans at risk of a radiological release that could contaminate their homes and destroy their livelihoods,” said Lyman. “It is time for the NRC to employ sound science and common-sense policy judgments in its decision-making process.”

The paper, “Nuclear safety regulation in the post-Fukushima era,” was published May 26 in Science. For more information, see von Hippel and Schoeppner’s previous papers, “Reducing the Danger from Fires in Spent Fuel Pools” and “Economic Losses From a Fire in a Dense-Packed U.S. Spent Fuel Pool,” which were published in Science & Global Security in 2016 and 2017 respectively. The Science article builds upon the findings of a Congressionally-mandated review by the National Academy of Sciences, on which von Hippel served.

Children At Increased Risk Of Suicide

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Teenagers injured through drinking, drug abuse or self-harming have a five-fold increased risk of dying from suicide in the next decade.

Children and young people admitted to hospital in England with injuries related to self-harming, drugs or alcohol faced an increased risk of killing themselves over the following 10 years, according to new research.

While previous studies have shown that children and adolescents who self-harm are at a higher risk of suicide, the paper by academics from UCL and the University of Leeds, argues that the risks apply to a larger group of adolescents.

The researchers say children injured through drink or drugs faced a similar increased risk of suicide as children who had been self-harming – and the National Health Service needed to revise its guidelines to target help and support at these young people.

The study examined anonymous hospital data relating to more than one million young people aged 10 to 19 who were admitted to an emergency department in England between 1997 and 2012 having suffered an injury.

The injuries were categorised as having been caused either accidentally – or through ‘adversity’, where the injuries were self-inflicted, from drug or alcohol abuse, or violence. The research team then looked at what had happened to the young people in the decade following the hospital admission.

They found that the death rate among the group which had suffered the adversity-related injuries was twice as high as the youngsters who had suffered the accidental injuries.

Among the adversity group, the death rate for girls was 7.3 per 1,000 – and 15.6 per 1,000 for boys. Two-thirds of the deaths were attributable to suicide, drug or alcohol misuse or to homicide, according to the research which is published in the Lancet.

One of the key findings of the study was that the risk of suicide was similar between young people who had self-harmed and those who had misused drugs or alcohol – an observation not been reported in medical journals until now.

The suicide rate of these young people was about five-times of that seen in the accidental injury group. The researchers also found that young people who had self-inflicted injuries were just as likely to die from drug and alcohol misuse as from suicide.

The increased rates of deaths from suicide or drug and alcohol misuse in the adversity group resulted in an additional 1,075 deaths – 683 boys and 392 girls.

This was an observational study, so it can increase our understanding of possible links between self-inflicted injury and suicide, but it doesn’t show that one necessarily causes the other because other factors could be involved.

Young Minds is a UK charity seeking to promote better mental health among adolescents. Its chief executive, Sarah Brennan, said: “This ground-breaking research demonstrates some of the interconnections between self-harm, substance misuse and violent injury – and the tragic consequences that these experiences may have. “It is essential that we don’t think of young people simply in terms of a list of “issues”, and that we understand how distress can be expressed in different ways at different times.”

The study showed young people are arriving at hospital with injuries which are not being identified as ‘red flags’ of an increased risk of a premature death.

David Cottrell, Professor of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry at the University of Leeds and one of the investigators, said: “Clinicians have not fully appreciated the risks facing children and young people who arrive in hospital emergency departments having suffered an adversity-related injury.

“It is well established that children who self-harm are at an increased risk of suicide.

“But the research points to that fact that the risk extends to a much broader group. Children and young people who suffered injuries through drink or drugs or violence also faced an increased risk of suicide or premature death through alcohol and drug behaviours.”

“These young people are coming into contact with the health services and that means there’s an opportunity for them to get help and support. Based on this evidence, official guidance given to staff in emergency departments needs to be reviewed so these young people are also seen as being at risk.”

It is standard practice for a mental health professional to assess a young person who has a self-inflicted injury, but that does not extend to those injuries related to misusing alcohol or drugs or to violence.

The researchers say mental health support should also be targeted at all children suffering adversity-related injuries. Dr Annie Herbert, from UCL Institute of Epidemiology and Healthcare, said: “A huge amount of deaths after adversity-related injury in our study were from suicide or drug or alcohol abuse, which to an extent should be preventable.

“More research is needed to find the best way for clinicians to support these children and young people, to reduce risks of future harm after they leave hospital.”

Professor Ruth Gilbert, from UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, said: “Our findings show the enormous value of using routinely collected patient data to spot opportunities for the NHS to intervene to reduce the risk of harm for vulnerable patients, many of whom come back to hospital time and again.”


Fathers’ Brains Respond Differently To Daughters Than Sons

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Fathers with toddler daughters are more attentive and responsive to those daughters’ needs than fathers with toddler sons are to the needs of those sons, according to brain scans and recordings of the parents’ daily interactions with their kids.

Fathers of toddlers also sang more often to their daughters and spoke more openly about emotions, including sadness, possibly because they are more accepting of girls’ feelings than boys’, according to the study, published in the American Psychological Association’s journal Behavioral Neuroscience. Fathers of sons engaged in more rough-and-tumble play and used more achievement-related language (e.g., words such as proud, win and top) when talking to their sons. Fathers of daughters used more analytical language (e.g., words such as all, below and much), which has been linked to future academic success.

“If the child cries out or asks for Dad, fathers of daughters responded to that more than did fathers of sons,” said lead researcher Jennifer Mascaro, PhD, of Emory University. “We should be aware of how unconscious notions of gender can play into the way we treat even very young children.”

The research examined whether the varying ways in which fathers treat sons or daughters may be influenced by different brain responses to male or female children. The study couldn’t determine if those different brain responses meant fathers are somehow hard wired through genetics or evolution to treat sons differently than they treat daughters or if the fathers were conforming to societal norms relating to gender.

Studies about parenting often are biased in the lab because participants give answers that they think are expected of them or are not aware of their own behavior. The researchers, from Emory University and the University of Arizona, avoided that problem by taking their study out of the lab and into the real world. The study used data from 52 fathers of toddlers (30 girls, 22 boys) in the Atlanta area who agreed to clip a small handheld computer onto their belts and wear it for one weekday and one weekend day. The device randomly turned on for 50 seconds every nine minutes to record any sound during the 48-hour period. Some of the fathers in the study had more than one child, but the study focused only on their interactions with one son or daughter.

“People act shockingly normal when they are wearing it,” Mascaro said. “They kind of forget they are wearing it or they say to themselves, what are the odds it’s on right now.”

The fathers also were told to leave the device charging in their child’s room at night so any nighttime interactions with their children could be recorded, said Mascaro, an assistant professor in Family and Preventative Medicine at the Emory School of Medicine.

Fathers also underwent functional MRI brain scans while viewing photos of an unknown adult, an unknown child, and their own child with happy, sad or neutral facial expressions. Fathers of daughters had greater responses to their daughters’ happy facial expressions in areas of the brain important for visual processing, reward, emotion regulation, and face processing than fathers of sons. In a finding that the researchers hadn’t predicted, the brains of the fathers of boys responded more robustly to their sons’ neutral facial expressions, possibly because fathers are responding to the more ambiguous emotional displays of their sons. There was no significant difference in the fathers’ brain responses to sad facial expressions from sons or daughters.

In daily interactions, fathers of daughters used more language referencing the child’s body (e.g., words such as belly, foot and tummy) relative to fathers of sons. Previous research has shown that pre-adolescent girls are more likely than boys to report body dissatisfaction and lower self-esteem relating to body image.

The study focused on fathers because there is less research about fathers’ roles in rearing young children than mothers, Mascaro said. The study couldn’t make any definitive long-term connections between the varying treatment of sons or daughters as toddlers and future outcomes for those children, but the research explored some possible links that may offer some recommendations for fathers. Since the research was conducted in the United States, the study also couldn’t draw any conclusions about fathers in other cultures with different societal norms for fathers.

If fathers are more present and attentive to daughters and open to expressing emotions, that may help girls develop more empathy than boys, so fathers of sons could take the same approach as fathers of daughters, Mascaro said. “The fact that fathers may actually be less attentive to the emotional needs of boys, perhaps despite their best intentions, is important to recognize,” she said.

Other research has found that restricted emotions in adult men is linked to depression, decreased social intimacy, marital dissatisfaction and a lower likelihood of seeking mental health treatment.

Previous research also has shown that rough-and-tumble play by parents can help young children better regulate their emotions. Fathers of daughters may want to engage in more rough-and-tumble play with girls, even though such play is more often associated with boys, Mascaro said.

“Most dads are trying to do the best they can and do all the things they can to help their kids succeed, but it’s important to understand how their interactions with their children might be subtly biased based on gender,” Mascaro said.

Fighting Forgery With Paper Fingerprints

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Fingerprinting official documents could provide a cost-effective way to prevent forgery, new research shows.

Scientists from Newcastle University, UK, have found an inexpensive and easy way to validate the authenticity of ANY paper document just by taking a picture of it on a standard camera.

Analyzing the translucent patterns revealed when a light shines through paper, the researchers have been able to identify a unique ‘texture’ fingerprint for every single sheet of paper.

Capturing the random interweaving of the wooden particles, they show that a unique fingerprint code can be captured and verified with 100% accuracy using nothing more than an off-the-shelf camera. They further show that the fingerprinting process remains highly reliable even if the paper is treated with rough handling such as crumpling, soaking, scribbling and heating.

Publishing their findings in the academic journal ACM Transactions on Information and System Security, the team – Ehsan Toreini, Dr Feng Hao and Dr Siamak Shahandashti – say the findings offer a new way to verify physical documents and reduce the risk of forgery.

Dr Feng Hao, co-author and Reader in Security Engineering at Newcastle University, said: “What we have shown is that every piece of paper contains unique intrinsic features just as every person has unique intrinsic biometric features.

“By using an ordinary light source and an off-the-shelf camera, it takes just 1.3 seconds and one snapshot to capture those features and produce a texture ‘fingerprint’ that is unique to that document.

“Cloning the paper document would require reproducing the same random interweaving of the wooden particles in the paper – which is impossible, massively reducing the possibility of forgery.”

Secure paper documents

Designing secure documents that provide high levels of security against forgery is a long-standing problem.

Even in today’s digital age, this problem remains important as paper is still the most common form of proving authenticity – such as receipts, contracts, certificates and passports.

One way of protecting against fraud is to embed electronics such as RFID chips within the document. This solution is currently used in e-passport to prevent forgery. However, the security of these relies on the tamper-resistance of the chip and the more secure systems bring with them a significant cost. As an example, with the addition of a “tamper resistant” RFID chip to the UK passports in 2006, the cost of an adult passport sharply rose from £42 in 2005 to £72 in 2007.

While on the surface a sheet of paper may seem like any other sheet, manufacturing paper is a complex process and each sheet is unique.

“Typically, wooden particles are used as the base and multiple substances are used to stick these particles together,” explained lead author Ehsan Toreini, a PhD student in Cyber Security in Newcastle University’s School of Computing Science.

“Our idea was that the majority of paper used for official and legal documents, certificates, invoices and so on is not completely opaque. Different types let through different levels of light and reflect it in different ways and as a result, each one reveals a unique fingerprint.

“We proposed an algorithm that generates a compact and unique identifier for each sheet of paper. This identifier is then converted into a QR code which can be verified efficiently off-line by anyone.

“Since this identifier is basically representative of that paper texture, any illegal modifications – including copying the contents of the document to another paper sheet – could be identified.”

In order to make each sample – or fingerprint – from the paper sheet consistent, the team used a rectangular box (dimensions 37 mm x 57 mm) and asked users to only capture what was inside this box with the camera.

“Our algorithm recognizes this box automatically and the texture patterns inside this area are analysed for the fingerprint. We only need one sample from this area to construct its fingerprint,” says Mr Toreini.

How the system might be used

This technique can be applied to prevent counterfeiting of any physical document that is made of paper material, for example, e-passports and bank notes. One potential application is to verify the authenticity of a university degree certificate. Before the certificate is issued, the paper texture is extracted from the certificate, digitally signed by the institution and printed on the certificate as a barcode.

Anyone wanting to verify the authenticity of the certificate would just need to take a picture of the texture fingerprint and the system will compare the new image with the digitally signed copy stored in the barcode.

The algorithm can also correctly identify the box and automatically justify it to the desired position and condition by rotating and masking the undesired parts mostly caused by human errors. This makes it robust against human mistakes while taking the photo.

“A potential employer could easily authenticate the degree certificate by themselves without having to contact the university,” said Dr Hao.

Bleak Future For Belarus If Europe Follows US And Ends Backing For Opposition – OpEd

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US President Donald Trump has proposed cutting all assistance to the democratic opposition in Belarus, a move that if copied by European countries which currently provide far more aid, could make the future of Belarus ever bleaker, according to a Russian analyst.

Denis Lavnikevich argues on the Rosbalt news agency today that such a cutoff in assistance would lead to the end of many opposition groups without strengthening the authoritarian regime of Alyaksandr Lukashenka given that the population is prepared to rise against him as it did earlier this year (rosbalt.ru/world/2017/05/25/1617820.html).

He cites the observation of Alyona Anisim, one of two independent deputies in the Belarusian parliament, that the opposition “over the course of many years has taken principled positions by directing all its efforts and rhetoric at criticism of the powers that be.” But with few exceptions, the latter have been unwilling to engage in “sincere” negotiations.

Yury Zyankovich, a Belarusian opposition figure now living in the emigration, notes that “the opposition has lost its authority” over the population, a situation that would only worsen if outside funding and support is cut off. That makes mass protests more likely and the result of them “will be not even an invasion by Russian tanks,” but something “much worse.”

In that event, the emigre activist says, the Belarusian state will simply collapse because “the authorities won’t be able to hold power … and the opposition will not be able to take over” because its organizations will have collapsed.

“In reality,” the Rosbalt commentator adds, “the mass protests of the spring of 2017 in Belarus were largely spontaneous. The local opposition had to play “catch up” and then tried” to exploit the popular anger. But if the opposition disintegrates as it might without outside support, there would be no one to channel popular anger.

Lavnikevich adds: “a sharp reduction of foreign financing [would] force the Bealrusian opposition to begin its own reformation. Today the opposition is studying the problems of people and seeking sensitive social issues for their further politicization.” But soon Belarus may be a place where an angry but unorganized people confronts a frightened and shaky regime.

Balancing Responsibilities In Insurers’ Access To Genetic Test Results

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Genetic testing is widely used across the developed world in order to diagnose and predict disease. However, along with its usefulness comes concern about how others, such as employers and insurers, can have access to and use its results. This in turn leads to the risk that individuals may avoid medically recommended genetic testing, or participation in genetic research, if they fear that they may be discriminated against based on their results.

At the annual conference of the European Society of Human Genetics  on Saturday, Anya Prince, JD MPP, a postdoctoral research associate at the Centre for Genomics and Society, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, USA, will present results of her study comparing the regulation of life insurers’ use of genetic information in the UK, Canada, and Australia.

“Such a study is necessary in order to appreciate the effectiveness and potential downsides of different policy options,” said Ms Prince, who hopes to use her results to inform the development of regulations addressing life insurer use of genetic information in the United States. “Understanding which policy options most effectively assuage fear of discrimination has the potential to improve human health by encouraging individuals to undergo testing when medically recommended and to participate in genomics research.”

In Australia, private life insurers are permitted to use genetic test results when setting insurance rates and deciding whether or not to accept an application. Although they are only allowed to use test results based on actuarial or statistical data, they are free to use their own judgements as to which tests meet these requirements.

In Canada, while life insurers are currently allowed to use genetic test results, the Parliament recently passed legislation that would prohibit them from doing so when drawing up insurance contracts. But in Canada insurance regulation comes under the jurisdiction of the provinces, so there is some doubt as to whether this ban is constitutional. The legislation is currently under judicial review.

Of the three countries studied, the United Kingdom had the most comprehensive protection against insurer use of genetic information. Life insurers have agreed to a moratorium on the use of predictive genetic test results for life insurance policies below £500,000 (five hundred thousand pounds). Above this figure, insurers are allowed to use genetic tests sanctioned by a government advisory committee, but to date only Huntington’s Disease testing has been permitted.

“The two-tiered UK system is seen by many both within and outside of the country as being an effective way of balancing individual and insurer concerns–on the one hand about genetic discrimination and on the other about the economic viability of the industry. And the flexible nature of the moratorium, which is not permanent legislation, helps insurers feel comfortable that they will be able to react to advances in genomic research if necessary,” said Ms Prince.

However, discussions with insurers in Australia and Canada showed that they felt that to lose access to genetic test results would have a drastic effect on their industry, and could threaten financial collapse. Unsurprisingly, individuals in those countries were much more likely to fear discrimination as a result of genetic testing than those interviewed in the UK.

Ms Prince has now widened the scope of her study to include Sweden, where insurers are barred from taking genetic test results into consideration.

“I hope this comparative research will help to foster international dialogue about the ethical and legal implications of genetic research and insurance. Personally, I think that a two-tier system, as implemented in the UK, creates an appropriate balance. If insurers are allowed to use test results, I believe their model of an independent committee controlling which test results they may use is necessary,” she said.

However, a major question remains. Are genetic test results relevant to insurance underwriting?

“While genetic testing may promise to reduce risk, it is important to keep in mind that most genetic information can be affected by so many other factors. These include the environment, the likelihood of developing symptoms if someone has a genetic mutation (called the penetrance), the variation in signs and symptoms that can occur among people with the same condition, and how easy it is to minimise risks in individuals.”

“Where there are tests for highly penetrant conditions, it is relatively easy to predict outcomes, but these conditions affect only a very small percentage of the population. It is therefore unsurprising that there is active debate about how loss of access to genetic test results would really affect the economic viability of the insurance industry,” Ms Prince said.

Chair of the ESHG conference, Professor Joris Veltman, Director of the Institute of Genetic Medicine at Newcastle University, Newcastle, United Kingdom, said: “Genetic testing is becoming more mainstream and providing an increasing amount of information that can be used to predict disease risks. It is therefore important to evaluate who may or may not have access to these data and for what purpose, and make sure we develop common rules that can be internationally applied and upheld. This work provides an important analysis of the way different countries deal with this. It points to considerable differences that need to be addressed with all stakeholders involved.”

Climate Change Could Have Devastating Impact On Forest Carbon Storage

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New research from a multi-university team of biologists shows what could be a startling drop in the amount of carbon stored in the Sierra Nevada mountains due to projected climate change and wildfire events.

The study, “Potential decline in carbon carrying capacity under projected climate-wildfire interactions in the Sierra Nevada”, published this week in Scientific Reports, shows another facet of the impact current man-made carbon emissions will have on our world if big changes aren’t made.

“What we’ve been trying to do is really understand how changing climate, increases in temperatures and decreases in precipitation, will alter carbon uptake in forests,” said University of New Mexico Assistant Professor Matthew Hurteau, a co-author on the paper. “The other aspect of this work is looking at disturbance events like large scale wildfires. Those events volatilize a lot of carbon and can kill many trees, leaving fewer trees to continue to take up the carbon.”

According to Hurteau, who worked on this study with colleagues from Penn State and the University of California-Merced, roughly half of all human-emitted carbon is absorbed by vegetation and the ocean, and is stored through natural processes – something that helps limit our actual carbon impact on the atmosphere. The problem is, as forests begin to change, due to global warming and large scale fires, the amount of forest carbon uptake will decrease, accelerating the amount of man-made carbon making its way into the atmosphere.

“Our simulations in the Sierra Nevada show that the mean amount of carbon loss from the forests under these projections could be as large as 663 teragrams,” said Hurteau. “That’s equal to about 73 percent of the total above ground carbon stock estimated in California vegetation in 2010.”

Hurteau and his colleagues used climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and run ecosystem model simulations, where they look at individual tree species in the Sierra Nevada to understand how projected climate and wildfire will influence where those trees will be found in the future and how quickly they’ll grow. Using that data, researchers are then able to determine the expected carbon uptake – which, if things continue moving in the same direction, will see huge declines across the Sierra Nevada mountain range over the next 250 years.

The two factors that influence these findings are changes in climate and the likelihood of large scale forest fires. Because California is experiencing warmer and dryer conditions due to global warming, certain tree species are not able to flourish across particular geographic regions like they once were. Less tree growth, means less carbon uptake in forests.

The study also shows that wildfires will play a big role in the reduction of stored carbon. And while many of these incidents will occur naturally, Hurteau says we are, in part, to blame for their significance.

“We’ve been putting out fires for a hundred years, causing tree density to go way up. In the absence of fire that system has a lot more carbon stored in it,” explained Hurteau. “But, when you have these large fire events the amount of carbon stored in the system drops because it kills many of the trees. Whereas, in a forest that’s been maintained by regular forest fires, which is the natural ecological state, your total carbon at any given point in time can be lower but it stays more consistent.”

Hurteau says researchers have identified strategies for reducing some of the fire risk by actively thinning forests to manage tree density and restoring surface fires. It’s an idea that seems counterproductive until you consider how volatile these ecosystems are due to the risk of large scale fires that end up destroying hundreds of thousands of acres.

“Part of my responsibility as a publically funded researcher is to identify issues that these systems face, draw attention to them and then figure out what the impacts of those issues are,” he said. “Directly from that work, we also want to try and identify solutions to these issues.”

Hurteau says he hopes this work will help policy makers in California gain a better understanding of what needs to be done to maintain these forested ecosystems. He says it’s not only for the benefit of nature but for all of us, since healthy ecosystems lead to cleaner, better regulated water flow to communities across the western United States.

‘Drastically’ Higher Resolution For TVs And Smartphones Could Happen Soon

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Researchers at the University of Central Florida have developed a new color changing surface tunable through electrical voltage – a breakthrough that could lead to three times the resolution for televisions, smartphones and other devices.

Video screens are made up of hundreds of thousands of pixels that display different colors to form the images. With current technology, each of these pixels contain three subpixels — one red, one green, one blue.

But a scientific advancement in a lab at UCF’s NanoScience Technology Center may eventually make that model a thing of the past. Assistant Professor Debashis Chanda and physics doctoral student Daniel Franklin have come up with a way to tune the color of these subpixels. By applying differing voltages, they are able to change the color of individual subpixels to red, green or blue – the RGB scale — or gradations in between.

“We can make a red subpixel go to blue, for instance,” Chanda said. “In other displays that is not possible because they need three static color filters to show the full RGB color. We don’t need that now; a single subpixel-less pixel can be tuned across a given color gamut.”

The research was reported this month in the academic journal Nature Communications.

Aside from the inherent value of an improved design for the pixel-based displays that are ubiquitous in today’s world, their findings have other advantages.

By eliminating the three static subpixels that currently make up every pixel, the size of individual pixels can be reduced by three. Three times as many pixels means three times the resolution. That would have major implications for not only TVs and other general displays, but augmented reality and virtual reality headsets that need very high resolution because they’re so close to the eye.

“A subpixel-less display can increase resolution drastically,” Franklin said. “You can have a much smaller area that can do all three.”

And because there would no longer be a need to turn off some subpixels to display a solid color — there would be no more subpixels, after all — the brightness of screens could be much greater.

Franklin and Chanda built on earlier research that demonstrated the world’s first proof-of-concept display utilizing the plasmonic phenomenon (Nature Communications, Vol. 6, pp. 7337, 2015).

They’ve created an embossed nanostructure surface resembling an egg crate, covered with a skin of reflective aluminum. However, they needed several variations of this nanostructure to achieve the full range of colors. In their latest advance, they found that modifying the roughness of the surface allowed a full range of colors to be achieved with a single nanostructure.

The nanostructure surface can be easily integrated with existing display technology, so the underlying hardware wouldn’t need to be replaced or re-engineered.

“It allows you to leverage all the pre-existing decades of LCD technology. We don’t have to change all of the engineering that went into making that,” Franklin said.

The researchers are now taking steps to scale up their displays in preparation for bringing the technology to the private sector.

Philippines: Concerns Martial Law Threatens Escalation Of Abuses

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The Philippine government’s declaration of martial law in the southern island of Mindanao threatens to widen the scope of abuses under President Rodrigo Duterte, Human Rights Watch said Thursday.

On May 23, 2017, the Duterte administration declared martial law and suspended habeas corpus after the Islamist armed group Maute attacked Marawi City and killed three security force officers and burned several buildings, including a hospital and school. Maute fighters reportedly took a priest and several others hostage.

The imposition of martial law in the midst of Duterte’s “war on drugs,” in which more than 7,000 people have been killed since June, raises grave concerns of ever-widening human rights violations in the country, Human Rights Watch said. The day following the declaration, Duterte told the media, “Martial law is martial law. It will not be any different from what the president, [Ferdinand] Marcos did. I’d be harsh.” He later said that he “might declare martial law throughout the country to protect the people.”

“Duterte’s martial law threatens military abuses in Mindanao that could rival the murderous ‘drug war’ in urban areas,” said Phelim Kine, deputy Asia director at Human Rights Watch. “It’s crucial that the country’s security forces abide by international law at all times and hold rights violators to account.”

Placing Mindanao under martial law empowers the Philippine military to supersede civilian authorities in enforcing the law. Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said that the military will have “control of movement, searches and arrest of detained people, [and] suspension of writ of habeas corpus.” On May 24, the Department of National Defense appropriately issued a statement that all military personnel are “enjoined that the rule of law and human rights should prevail” wherever martial law is in effect.

In 1972, then-President Marcos imposed martial law and suspended habeas corpus throughout the Philippines, which facilitated widespread abuses by the military and other security forces, including detention without charge, torture, enforced disappearances, and extrajudicial killings. These abuses did not end when martial law was lifted in early 1981. The 1987 Philippine Constitution, which was drafted after Marcos’s overthrow during “people power” revolution in 1986, places restrictions on the proclamation of martial law and the suspension of the writ of habeas corpus, as well as on their implementation.

Article VII, section 18 of the Constitution empowers the president in the event of “invasion or rebellion” to impose martial law and suspend habeas corpus for up to 60 days. A majority of members of both houses of Congress can revoke – or extend – the proclamation or suspension without the president’s approval.

Also under section 18, the Supreme Court may review a case brought by any citizen contesting the factual basis for martial law, and must hand down its decision within 30 days.

The Constitution also provides some important due process protections during martial law, Human Rights Watch said. A state of martial law does not suspend the Constitution, nor replace the functioning of the civil courts or Congress. It only permits military courts to try civilians when civil courts are unable to function. Suspension of habeas corpus applies only to people judicially charged for rebellion or offenses linked to invasion, and those arrested or detained must still be charged by the courts within three days or be released.

Maute and the Islamist armed group Abu Sayyaf threaten the security of people in parts of Mindanao, Human Rights Watch said. Both groups have pledged support to the Islamic State (also known as ISIS). However, the imposition of martial law throughout Mindanao for at least 60 days could also affect the Philippine armed forces’ handling of other armed conflicts on the island, including with the communist New People’s Army (NPA) and various Moro insurgent groups.

Expanding the military’s legal authority in these conflicts opens the door to increased human rights violations against civilians, including leftist activists, indigenous leaders, and environmental activists, who have long been targets of military abuses.

“The Philippine government has a responsibility to protect the population from armed militants, but gaining the backing of affected people means abiding by the rule of law,” Kine said. “Martial law is not a free pass for abuse.”


Boko Haram: Down But Far From Out – Analysis

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By Idayat Hassan*

The Nigerian government has declared victory over the Boko Haram insurgency. The capture at the end of December of Camp Zero in Sambisa Forest, the last stronghold of the jihadists, seemed to herald the formal beginning of the post-insurgency phase in northeastern Nigeria.

The negotiated return last month of 82 of the kidnapped Chibok schoolgirls (an estimated 113 are still in captivity) has been presented as further evidence that the back of the seven-year-old insurgency has been broken.

The government and its development partners are already starting post-war reconstruction in the three most affected states of Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa. Humanitarian conditions remain dire, but houses and schools are being rebuilt, seedlings distributed, and empowerment training schemes launched.

Concerns

Amid all this optimism, it is important to acknowledge lingering causes for concern.

While Camp Zero has been dismantled, the reality is that Boko Haram is an adaptable foe. It is reportedly both forming new enclaves in the Lake Chad Basin and melting back into civilian communities.

The rumours are of profitable business partnerships being formed – especially in the fish and cattle trade. Some fishermen, for example, are supplying their catch to Boko Haram middlemen who sell on their behalf.

And Boko Haram’s network is far deeper than commonly realised. The State Security Service is regularly turning up insurgents across northern Nigeria, and in one case as far away as the western state of Ekiti.

Boko Haram is known for its attacks on civilians and suicide bombings. So far in May there have been 12 suicide bombings (by nine women, three men) – a tempo that suggests the insurgency is far from over.

But since the movement split into two factions led by Abubaker Shekau and Abu Musab al-Barnawi back in August, there has been a change of tactics. Al-Barnawi’s group had criticised Shekau for attacking soft civilian targets, tactics that won Boko Haram few voluntary recruits. Al-Barnawi’s group is much more explicitly targeting the military.

Since November, 11 military installations have been attacked, with 40 soldiers killed. In April alone, 20 soldiers died in raids on four army posts. The weaponry they have captured, and the motorbikes instead of vehicles they favour, means they are mobile and well-armed.

Al-Barnawi’s faction still loots villages for food, fuel, and medical supplies, even if it does appear to be deliberately avoiding killing civilians – as long as they don’t resist.

The government’s inability to completely block the sources of financing for the insurgents continues to pose a challenge. Boko Haram still has money to wage its war, typically raised through kidnapping, extortion, armed robbery, cattle rustling, and taxes/levies on businesses.

The strained relationship between the vigilante Civilian Joint Task Force and the military is also affecting the government’s prosecution of the conflict. Since the arrest in February of the founder of the CJTF, Bah Lawan, over his alleged links to Boko Haram, some vigilante leaders are refusing to cooperate with the army.

The CJTF, one of the most effective weapons the military has against Boko Haram, has also been reportedly weakened by factionalism and indiscipline. Regular complaints of irregular pay from the Borno State government and the lack of health insurance and even fuel for their vehicles is affecting morale.

Power of the word

Boko Haram’s ideology, that Westernisation is evil, still has resonance. Rural northeastern Nigeria is highly conservative. While the insurgency’s violence is not approved of, its broad worldview has power and can still attract sympathy.

One 45-year-old woman who was held hostage in Sambisa, and served as a teacher in the camp, was honest enough to tell me she now regretted leaving Boko Haram.

Alleged corruption and sexual exploitation by security forces and aid workers also plays into the militants’ messaging. There is a powerful narrative that girls and women in IDP camps are either being sexually abused or forced into sex-for-food arrangements. Reports of the flagrant use of alcohol and drugs by the army and the CJTF also do not sit well with traditional cultural norms.

The government has a disarmament and reintegration plan dubbed Operation Safe Corridor. More than 4,500 former combatants have surrendered, but the framework for the strategy remains opaque, and it contains real risks.

There are fears that some so-called “deradicalised” Boko Haram are not repentant at all. There are questions over their screening, certification, and whether communities are ready for their return and reintegration.

Some ex-combatants have been deeply indoctrinated. As one man told me: “You cannot believe in one part of the Koran and not in the other part of the Koran, [which includes] killing”.

Then there are the detainees accused of being Boko Haram – those who have suffered abuse at the hands of the security forces and have likely been radicalised as a result of that experience but are then released.

Negotiations

Hope that the freeing of the Chibok schoolgirls could be a step towards possible negotiations was dealt a blow by Shuaibu Moni, one of the (at least) five Boko Haram commanders swapped for the released school girls.

In a video released barely a week after he gained his freedom, he was threatening to bomb Abuja and denying there could be any dialogue with the government. “Only war is between us!” he declared.

While we must give kudos to the military and the Nigerian government for improving security in the northeast, it is safe to say the conflict is far from over.

There is still some way to go.

The government must immediately prioritise a hearts-and-minds approach. The focus of the war now should be on combatting the ideology of Boko Haram; there should be an emphasis on healing trauma in a society scarred by the violence.

And while the path of dialogue is a difficult journey, the idea of peace through negotiation must not be jettisoned.

*Idayat Hassan
, Director of the Centre for Democracy and Development, an Abuja-based policy advocacy and research organisation. This article is part of a special project exploring violent extremism in Nigeria and the Sahel

Russia: Arrested Islamic State Members, Preparing Attacks In Moscow

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Russia’s main domestic security agency says it has arrested four members of the Islamic State group who have been preparing attacks in Moscow, The Associated Press reports.

The Federal Security Service, or FSB, the main KGB successor agency, said the suspects arrested in Moscow Thursday, May 25 were preparing to strike at the capital’s transport network. The agency said in a statement that the four were working under directions from IS in Syria to prepare attacks using self-made explosive devices.

The FSB said that the suspects were planning to join the IS in Syria after the attack. It didn’t give their names, saying only the group included citizens of Russia and ex-Soviet Central Asian nations.

The arrests follow last month’s suicide bombing in St. Petersburg’s subway that left 16 dead and wounded more than 50.

Burma: Buddhist Body ‘Bans’ Ultra-Nationalist Monks

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A government-appointed body that regulates Myanmar’s Buddhist clergy has banned an ultra-nationalist monk organization known for its anti-Islamic rhetoric, according to media reports, ordering the group to disband or face punishment under both Buddhist and secular law.

The Sangha Maha Nayaka Committee (Ma Ha Na), a group of high-ranking monks that serves as Myanmar’s Buddhist authority, informed government ministries on May 23 that it had ordered the hard-line group Ma Ba Tha to end its activities, according to a document obtained by Agence France-Presse.

“People, either as individuals or as a group, cannot take any actions under the name of Ma Ba Tha,” the Sangha said in its statement, which also directed Ma Ba Tha to take down its posters and signboards around the country by July 15, Radio Free Asia (RFA) reported.

According to a report by Frontier Myanmar, the Sangha’s statement also warned that any breach of its edict would lead to punishment under Buddhist law and be referred to the Ministry of Home Affairs for “immediate” prosecution.

Ma Ba Tha representatives agreed to “obey [those decisions] exactly and inform other monks” in the group, Frontier said, citing the statement.

Thawparka, a leading member of the Ma Ba Tha Steering Committee, told RFA’s Myanmar Service that his organization is still determining how to respond to the order.

“We have to review the Ma Ha Na decision and discuss our future plans,” he said.

“We will let the country know what we decide.”

Thawparka added that the Ma Ba Tha’s fourth anniversary conference scheduled for May 27-28 had been canceled.

Myanmar has seen frequent outbreaks of religious violence in recent years amid tensions stoked by hard-line groups such as Ma Ba Tha.

Local Elections In Nepal: Is Second Phase Possible? – Analysis

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By Pramod Jaiswal*

Nepal held the first phase of its local election in May 2017, after nearly 19 years. Following the expiry of the five-year term of the elected representatives in 2002, the local bodies have been without elected representatives for almost 14 years. The Nepalese Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ is all set to resign and hand over power to Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba. The second phase of the local election, scheduled for 14 June, will be conducted by the Deuba government. However, the Madhesi parties have warned that they would not participate in the local elections and would instead disrupt the process, unless amendments are endorsed in the constitution.

First Phase of Local Election

There was little hope among the people and the political parties that the first phase of local election would be held on the scheduled date of 14 May. However, the election was conducted in 34 districts of Nepal’s three provinces (namely 3, 4 and 6) without major violence. The Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist Leninist) [CPN-UML] and the Nepali Congress won over 100 seats while the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) [CPN-MC] won less than half of them. However, the first phase of election was held on around 40 per cent of seats, mostly in hill districts. The second phase of election will be in favour of the Nepali Congress and Madhesis. Hence, in the final count, the Nepali Congress would emerge as the largest, followed by CPN-UML.

The Prachanda-led government was under extreme pressure to hold the local election. As per the newly promulgated constitution, government has to conduct three tier elections – local, provincial and federal – before January 2018. There was excessive pressure from the main opposition, CPN-UML as well. However, the major obstacle was posed by the Madhesi parties who were against holding of the elections before the endorsement of the amendment in the constitution. After the assurance from the government of amending the constitution after the first phase of local election, Madhesi parties called off their protest programs and paved way for the first phase of election.

Is the Second Phase Possible?

The second phase of local election is scheduled for 14 June, which will be held in 41 districts of provinces 1, 2, 5 and 7. It consists of all the Madhes districts of Nepal and the Madhesi parties have warned the government of strong protests and disruption of election, if held without the endorsement of amendment in the constitution. Hence, holding the election without taking the Madhesi parties will be a herculean task.

The amendment to the constitution requires support from two-third of the total seats. The ruling alliance and Madhesi parties are unable to garner enough support for amendment. The CPN-UML – the main opposition – is strongly against it. Similarly, the government does not want to push for voting unless there is enough support for amendment, while the CPN-UML would not allow the process to take places if there is a chance of the amendment getting endorsed because it is possible if some of the Madhesi leaders from his party support the amendment. Hence, the amendment of the constitution is stuck in the numbers game.

The Madhesi parties have very few seats in the parliament. They could not garner a strong hold like in the first Constituent Assembly, as the parties got fragmented. India partly played a role in this process as it wanted to isolate Maoists. The Maoists and Madhesis share some similarities on issues of federalism. Hence, on several occasions, the Madhesis wanted to support the Maoists on the constitutional issues. However, since April 2017, the Madhesi parties are consolidating themselves. There were three major mergers of the Madhesi parties in April 2017.

On 5 April, the Bijay Kumar Gachhadar-led Madhesi People’s Rights Forum-Democratic; Yasoda Lama-led Dalit Janajati Party Nepal; and the Shiva Lal Thapa-led Janamukti Party announced the Nepal Democratic Forum. Similarly, on 20 April, the major Madhesi parties, namely Tarai Madhes Democratic Party led by senior Madhesi leader Mahanta Thakur; the Rajendra Mahato-led Sadbhawana Party; the Mahendra Ray Yadav-led Tarai Madhes Sadbhawana Party; the Sharat Singh Bhandari-led Rastriya Madhes Samajwadi Party; the Anil Kumar Jha-led Nepal Sadbhawana Party; and the Rajkishor Yadav-led Madheshi Janadhikar Forum-Republican formed the Rastriya Janata Party Nepal. Moreover, the Upendra Yadav- led Federal Socialist Forum-Nepal and the Baburam Bhattarailed newly formed Naya Shakti Party-Nepal announced a working alliance. The Naya Shakti Party and the Federal Socialist Forum-Nepal contested elections on one symbol and they are preparing for alliance with four to five small parties after the election.

Interestingly, after the merger, none of the Madhesi parties have ‘Madhes/ Terai’ in their name.

The Way Forward

Sher Bahadur Deuba would take over as the prime minister after Prachanda’s resignation. His tenure would be full of challenges; and the most immediate one would be to conduct the second phase of the local election within a few weeks, followed by two others – provincial and federal. His government should address the demands of the Madhesis and create a favourable environment for free and fair elections, which will pave way for peace and stability in Nepal.

* Pramod Jaiswal
Senior Fellow, IPCS
E-mail: pramod.jaiswal@ipcs.org

New Nationalism In Trade: Regional Responses – Analysis

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As economic nationalism rises in some industrialised countries, the public and private sectors need to unite to defend the system that has underpinned growth.

By Evan Rogerson*

In 1998 world leaders from Fidel Castro and Nelson Mandela to Bill Clinton and Tony Blair met to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the multilateral trading system. Now, trade agreements are being rejected by political leaders in some industrialised countries and economic nationalism is resurgent.

The public and private sectors in this region need to unite in defending the system that has underpinned its growth. In fact, the problems of the older industrialised economies have more to do with a failure to adjust to de-industrialisation.

Backlash Against Globalisation: Asia Not Immune

Long-term policy failures in key sectors – education, social investment, regional policy, infrastructure – have left people in the former industrial heartlands marginalised and resentful. Trade, like immigration, has become a lightning rod for this resentment and populist politicians are only too willing to exploit it.

If there is little sign so far of a similar anti-globalisation backlash in Southeast Asia, this can be ascribed to better economic growth, productivity and job creation, a relative lack of “rustbelt” industries, investment in education and upskilling, and willingness to embrace new technologies.

The benefits of global value chains are still more apparent than any downside, and the memory of past poverty still fresh enough to counteract nostalgic nationalism. There are no grounds for complacency, however. For one thing, as economies mature they begin to confront some of the same structural problems linked to higher costs and relatively slower growth combined with rising expectations. It would be unwise to assume that there is a long-term Asian immunity from the resentments that have surfaced in Europe and the US. And, of course, the region has its own trade tensions.

Furthermore, the global integration that has fuelled growth has increased interdependence. This is already apparent in the repercussions from the Trump Administration’s decision to pull out of TPP, in which this country and its regional partners have invested heavily.

Then there is the uncertainty factor. The overall trend in the United States, for example, appears to be towards a more narrowly nationalistic view of trade, emphasising bilateral reciprocity and the reduction of trade deficits. However, we still do not know how this will play out in action.

Even if we avoid the most disastrous scenarios, a global climate of unpredictability is not a good basis for planning or investment in either the public or the private sector.

Positive Trade Narrative: Private Sector Can Help

The new trade nationalism calls for an effective and rapid response. There are several possible elements, one of which is shaping a positive trade narrative.

It is true that job losses in some sectors can be attributed to competition from imports. It is equally true that many more jobs depend on trade. In any case, changing technology is a much more important factor, accounting for around 8% of manufacturing job losses. These jobs will not come back by putting up barriers and limiting opportunity.

There is no reason why the success stories of trade agreements in terms of job creation and upskilling cannot be communicated with just as much immediacy and empathy as the negative story. Of course, it takes someone to invest money and commitment. This is an area where business groups could make an important contribution.

The private sector also needs to renew its active support for the multilateral system. After all, the Trade Facilitation deal is evidence that the WTO can indeed deliver results that are of direct relevance to business. Furthermore, whatever the pace of negotiations, the business sector continues to need the security and predictability of the multilateral rules.

The WTO Secretariat has been stepping up its outreach to business, but it has institutional constraints. Business groups themselves could usefully take a lead, for example in establishing regular consultative processes like those that exist in APEC and ASEAN.

Government Action as Back-up

The positive trade narrative needs to be backed up by government action.

The effort being made to continue the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) without the US is important. The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is another positive example, as are the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations and the APEC trade agenda.

In their differing ways, these initiatives all make a positive statement about the will of governments in the region to pursue open trade policies. Given the economic weight of the region such a commitment carries global weight. Singapore’s chairmanship of ASEAN next year can help keep the focus on key areas like the digital economy, as the Trade Minister has indicated.

Reinforcing the structures of international trade and economic co-operation is also important. The 2008 financial crisis proved the worth of WTO rules and commitments in countering the sort of protectionist stampede that turned the events of 1929 into the Great Depression.

The WTO Ministerial Conference in December this year will be an important opportunity to reaffirm the value of the system. This must mean actions as well as words.

Governments should implement WTO commitments fully and promptly. This is particularly relevant to the findings of Dispute Settlement cases, as the credibility of the system rests on it. But it is also true of a range of other existing commitments.

One immediate need is to ensure that domestic procedures are in place to implement the Trade Facilitation Agreement, which has just entered into force. Governments also need to ensure that traders are fully aware of the advantages the Agreement offers them.

Smaller Players are Important

At the government level, smaller players can make a big difference. There are many cases of smaller countries taking a lead in developing ideas and positions that have influenced the direction of the system. If they act together their effect is multiplied. TPP began as the P4, after all. The Cairns Group did much to define the agenda for agriculture negotiations.

Singapore is the prime example of a smaller economy exerting disproportionately significant weight in the multilateral trading system. It has been doing so at least since it hosted the first WTO Ministerial Conference in 1996.

This region depends upon a stable and open trading system; its leaders, government and business alike, have the strength and credibility to defend it effectively. They should unite in doing so.

*Evan Rogerson is a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS), S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. He is the former Director of the Agriculture and Commodities Division of the WTO Secretariat, Geneva.

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