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The Politics Of MTCR – OpEd

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As India became the 35th member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), it is considered by India itself that the membership would be mutually beneficial in the furtherance of international non-proliferation objectives. Sardonically, this is not correct! India, immediately decided to benefit from its entry into the group by deciding on to the enhancement of the range of its supersonic cruise missile beyond its previously known limit.

India gained the membership on June 9, 2016 that was before the formal plenary held in Busan (South Korea) from 17-21 October 2016. A big assistance of Russia was behind the successful accession to the regime. Given that India is heading towards advancement of its missiles after joining the 34 nation group where, MTCR actually work to restrict the proliferation of missiles, complete rocket systems, unmanned air vehicles, and related technology for those systems capable of carrying a 500 kilogram payload at least 300 kilometres, as well as systems intended for the delivery of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

The missile India and Russia have agreed to extend the range is their Brahmos supersonic cruise missiles beyond the current 300 km. The land-attack version of BrahMos supersonic cruise missile with an extended range increased from 290 km to 450 km was successfully test fired.

Brahmos, is a joint venture between the Russian Federation’s NPO Mashinostroeyenia and India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) who have together formed BrahMos Aerospace. The name BrahMos is a portmanteau formed from the names of two rivers, the Brahmaputra of India and the Moskva of Russia. It is a short-range ramjet supersonic cruise missile that can be launched from submarines, ships, aircraft or land.

It needs to be taken into account that Russia has welcomed Indian entry into the 35 nation (now 35 states after Indian entry) group very bluntly. Russia itself believes that it is a key anti-proliferating member of the group. The membership to India has definitely ease space and missile collaboration with Russia, which could not supply cryogenic engines and other dual use technology missiles to India, because it was bound by MTCR norms. This is because of the fact that the MTCR guidelines prohibit its members from transfer, sale or joint production of missiles beyond 300-km range to countries outside the group however India is in now therefore, the first thing both the countries got is, the license to increase the range of its missile.

This joint step by India – Russia is taken far offensive and pointing towards Pakistan because Brahmos with 300 km range was very difficult to target inside Pakistan but after enhancing the range the missile can hit anywhere inside Pakistan. So it is having regional implications at large in this regard. It would be worrisome not only for Pakistan but for China too. An Indian military official stated at some point of discussion, that “our threat perceptions and security concerns are our own, and how we address these by deploying assets on our territory should be no one else’s concern.” The statement depicts the aggressive an offensive mode of Indian mind making. So, a greater range for Brahmos would imply that India’s power to strike would get an unprecedented fillip.

Ironically, since 2004 the MTCR membership was stagnant to 34 countries. India’s application got accepted because of the political influence. Pakistan’s missile program is mature so joining the MTCR can be beneficial for Pakistan. Pakistan officially supports four multilateral export control regimes including MTCR. Nonetheless, it’s the political influence behind it that there is not much emphasis for MTCR around the world.

Analytically, it could be assessed from the above that India is doing this after the MTCR membership just within days, what India will do if its dream comes true of getting NSG membership. It would, for sure, lead the way for enhancing its uranium reserves for military usage. Analytically, China stonewalled India’s entry into the NSG at the recent June Plenary as it has an impact being the active member of the group but could not stall India’s membership to the MTCR seeing that it is not a member. Nevertheless, India is undoubtedly spending day by day and more and more in developing its tremendous firepower and strike capabilities. This is alarming for the world in general and the region in particular.


Humankind 2050: Peace Development Environment – OpEd

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By Johan Galtung*

West of Jondal is Torsnes, named after the Nordic war god Thor with his Hammer, a center of the Viking era from 800 to 1050, only 250 years. Why so short? Successful with raids and colonization–Gardarike in Russia, Iceland, Greenland, Vineland in Canada. And then: fini. Why?

Because they had no future.  Evil Lóki had killed Good Baldur–next to Torsnes is Belsnes=Baldursnes.  They were doomed.  Enters Christianity with Evil Satan and Good God, restoring hope. The end.

The Soviet Union Empire had no future: Communism was undefined. Enters Orthodox Christianity–Putin is a true believer–hope restored.

The United States Empire has no future: “allies” refuse to fight US wars and US capitalism increases inequality with reduced growth. Enter Campaigner Trump ‘Making America Great Again’ by buying-hiring American; President Trump making America isolated, violent, unequal–an autistic, psychotic, narcissistic, paranoid in a psycho-pathological exceptionalist, us-them paranoid state.  A perfect fit for the worst.

2050 is only 33 years ahead; 33 years back is Orwell’s 1984. Much happened.  The Berlin Wall collapsed in 1989; the Soviet Empire, Soviet Union and Communism followed. The US Empire declined, former clients refused to fight US wars, but not EU wars; eroding NATO.

The Cold war, threatening humanity with a nuclear arms race that in a hot war could obliterate the planet, melted away with a whimper.

China’s incredible growth, also in world presence, from the Deng Xiaoping revolution in 1980, has been mainly within that period.

The attack on Muslim countries by a “US-led coalition” and the reaction by Al Qaeda and the Islamic State-Caliphate: in that period.

All over the world regionalization, ELAC-Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, African Unity/Union, EU, ASEAN; most states being too small, civilizations blocking for a world state.

All over the world non-dominant nations asserting themselves.

And all over the world, inspired from USA, women emancipating.

A new world, in only 33 years of rapidly accelerating history with another new world in the next 33 years. Some forecasts, using Western identification of units-variables prolonging trends and Daoist identification of holons-dialectics, forces-counterforces, yin/yang; to catch both continuous change and the discontinuous, jumpy changes.

Development, defined as satisfying basic human needs by lifting the bottom up; reduction of inequality can be achieved before 2050. The idea of food-water, clothing-housing, health-education for all has arrived and been well received (maybe not in the USA); one formula being the last two free, the first four subsidized with monthly cash to buy. Homo sapiens being homo faber and homo ludens, productive and playful with lifelong support, not lifelong struggle for sheer survival.

True, ground and river water are scarce but ocean water is not, obtainable by boiling with parabolic mirrors, capturing the vapor.

Environment, defined as satisfying basic nature needs, diversity and symbiosis. Fighting CO2 omission, a bilateral relation for a very complex reality, is much too simplistic, fighting CFCs destroying the ozone layer and symbiosis, strengthening the diversity of biota and abiota beyond using only renewable resources make good sense.

Individuals stop smoking if they attribute death from lung cancer to smoking.  A catastrophe attributed to insulting nature’s needs may elicit remedial action from collectivities.  Likely to happen, but better pro-actio than re-actio. A key: the darker the earth the more heating by solar energy; cities are darker than villages. Therefore, move out from big cities ruled by elites to small local units ruled by people.

Peace, defined negatively as absence of parties being bad to each other, and positively as parties being good to each other–at the mega-macro-meso-micro levels–depends on ability to solve underlying conflicts and to concile underlying traumas–possibly increasing.

Forecasts for twenty cases spanning the world and the levels

The Peace versus Violence-War Dialectic to 2050: 20 Cases

Islam vs West: counter-cyclical, Muslim togetherness-sharing expanding, Western loneliness-bureaucracy contracting; conversion to Islam and to West building togetherness-sharing. Islamic State and Caliphate based on imams cleanses Islam of the West reaching Mecca.

NATO-USA vs SCO: no world war, NATO dissolving, SCO not.

West vs Russia: no war, EU-Russia European House unifying.

First World vs Third World, “North-South”: the last will be the first; Africa and Latin America-Caribbean matching Europe and USA.

West vs Eurasia-SCO, “West-East”: Eurasia penetrating and dominating West like China USA, not vice versa; dominion, not war.

Israel vs Palestine-Arab States: An Israel for Jews only will not survive; multi-national Israel as tolerant to Muslims-Arabs as they to Jews and Christians as People of the Book–with Jews all over, will.

Japan-USA vs Russia-Two Chinas-Two Koreas over Islands: violence-war likely unless shared ownership of islands and profits is adopted.

China vs ASEAN in South China Sea: war likely unless US aircraft carriers are withdrawn; sharing ownership, fisheries, and profits.

North Korea vs USA: war likely unless peace treaty, normalization  with North Korea and a nuclear-free Korean peninsula are practiced.

USA: one country among others but focused on Whom to blame, with anti-Semitism; new domestic-world politics and deep scripts coming.

EU: multi-speed with the euro as common, not single currency.

SCO will cover most of the Asian continent, blend with Eurasia.

UK: will split into Anglo-Saxon England, Celtic Wales, Scotland, Ireland, and the islands, in a Confederation of the British Isles.

Russia: compensating for “unequal treaties” with Chinese dynamic immigration, making Russia grow as part of Eurasia, with violence.

China: aging, will be overtaken by Africa like it overtook the mini/China-Japan “dragons” that had overtaken Japan overtaking USA.

States, except the biggest, yielding to regions-local authorities, with a United Regions; United Nations with no veto power leaving USA.

Ability to handle fault-line conflicts inside societies: use of human rights for equality across and democracy for shared decisions.

Ability to handle conflicts between-inside persons: so low that it will improve linking good with good, less violence linking bad-bad.

Ability to handle conflict: so low that it will improve. First step: seeing conflict as incompatible goals, as something to be solved.

Ability to concile trauma: so low that it will improve. First step: sharing narratives of what happened, wishing the violence undone.

*Johan Galtung, a professor of peace studies, dr hc mult, is founder of TRANSCEND International and rector of TRANSCEND Peace University. Prof. Galtung has published more than 1500 articles and book chapters, over 470 Editorials for TRANSCEND Media Service, and more than 170 books on peace and related issues, of which more than 40 have been translated to other languages, including 50 Years100 Peace and Conflict Perspectives published by TRANSCEND University Press. More information about Prof. Galtung and all of his publications can be found at transcend.org/galtung.

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS)

Comey’s Lies Of Omission – OpEd

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“The Democrats are not fighting Trump over his assault on health care, his attacks on immigrants, his militaristic bullying around the world, or even his status as a minority president who can claim no mandate after losing the popular vote. Instead, they have chosen to attack Trump, the most right-wing president in US history, from the right, denouncing him as insufficiently committed to a military confrontation with Russia.” — Patrick Martin, “The Russians are coming! The Russians are coming”, World Socialist Web Site

Donald Trump is not the target of an FBI investigation.

Donald Trump has never been the target of an FBI investigation.

The FBI is not investigating Trump for collusion, improper relations with a foreign government, treason or any of the other ridiculous things he’s been falsely accused of in the fake media. In fact, the FBI is not investigating him at all.

Last week, former FBI Director James Comey admitted publicly what he has known all along: that Trump was not a suspect in the Russia hacking probe and never has been.  Here’s the story from Politico:

“Comey assured Trump he wasn’t under investigation during their first meeting. He said he discussed with FBI leadership before his meeting with the president-elect whether to disclose that he wasn’t personally under investigation. “That was true; we did not have an open counter-intelligence case on him,” Comey said.” (Politico)

So, there was no counter-intelligence case on Trump? There was no investigation of collusion with Russia?

But how can that be, after all, Trump has been hectored and harassed by the media from Day 1? His appointments have been blocked, his political agenda has been derailed, and the results of the 2016 elections have been effectively repealed due to the relentless attacks of the media, political elites and high-ranking leaders in the Intelligence Community. Now Comey admits that Trump is not guilty of anything, he’s not even a suspect.

What’s going on here?  Why didn’t Comey clear the air earlier so the American people would know that their president wasn’t in bed with a foreign power?  Why did he allow this farce to continue when he knew there was no substance to the claims?  Did he enjoy seeing Trump twisting in the wind or was there some more sinister “political” motive behind his omission?

Trump repeatedly asked Comey to announce that he wasn’t under investigation. According to Comey, Trump “emphasized the problems this was causing him” and (Trump) said “We need to get that fact out.” But Comey repeatedly refused to publicly acknowledge the truth. Why?

Comey never answered that question to Trump, but he did explain his reasoning to the Senate Intelligence Committee last week.  He said he didn’t want to announce that Trump was not part of the Bureau’s Russia probe because “it would create a duty to correct, should that change.”

A “duty to correct”?   Are you kidding me? What kind of bullshit answer is that?  How many hours of legal brainstorming did it take to come up with that lame-ass excuse?

Let’s state the obvious: Comey wanted to maintain the cloud of suspicion that was hanging over Trump because it helped to feed the perception that Trump was a traitor who collaborated with Russia to win the election. By remaining silent, Comey helped to fuel the public hysteria and reinforce the belief that Trump was guilty of criminal wrongdoing. That is why Comey never spoke out before, it’s because his silence was already achieving the result he sought which was to inflict as much damage as possible on Trump and his administration.

Did you know that Comey was spying on Trump from Day 1?

It’s true, he admitted it himself. Following his first meeting with Trump on January 6, he started recording contents of his private conversations with the president-elect on a secure FBI laptop in his car outside Trump Tower. He didn’t even wait until he got back to the office, he did it in the goddamn parking lot. That’s what you call “eager”. In his testimony he admitted that he kept notes of his private meetings with Trump “from that point forward.”

Does that sound like the normal activities of dedicated public servant acting in behalf of the elected government or does it sound like someone who’s on an assignment to dig up as much dirt as possible on the target of a political smear campaign.

Isn’t that what Comey was really up to?

Comey is a man with zero integrity. Did you know that?

He is applauded in the media and by his fellow establishment elites because he is an unprincipled sycophant who slavishly obeys the directives of his deep state paymasters. Take a look at this except from an ACLU report on Comey:

“There’s one very big problem with describing Comey as some sort of civil libertarian: some facts suggest otherwise. While Comey deserves credit for stopping an illegal spying program in dramatic fashion, he also approved or defended some of the worst abuses of the Bush administration during his time as deputy attorney general. Those included torture, warrantless wiretapping, and indefinite detention.

On 30 December 2004, a memo addressed to James Comey was issued that superseded the infamous memo that defined torture as pain “equivalent in intensity to the pain accompanying serious physical injury, such as organ failure”. The memo to Comey seemed to renounce torture but did nothing of the sort. The key sentence in the opinion is tucked away in footnote 8. It concludes that the new Comey memo did not change the authorizations of interrogation tactics in any earlier memos.

In short, the memo Comey that approved gave a thumbs-up on waterboarding, wall slams, and other forms of torture – all violations of domestic and international law. …Then, there’s warrantless wiretapping. ….”(“Let’s Check James Comey’s Bush Years Record Before He Becomes FBI Director”, ACLU)

Repeat: “He approved or defended some of the worst abuses of the Bush administration (including)  torture, warrantless wiretapping, and indefinite detention.”

How does that square with the media’s portrayal of Comey as a man of unshakable integrity and honor?

It doesn’t square at all, does it? The media is obviously lying.

Now ask yourself this: Can a man who rubber-stamped waterboarding be trusted?

No, he can’t be trusted because he’s already proved himself to be inherently immoral.

Would a man like Comey agree to use his position and authority to try to “undo” the damage he did prior to the election when he announced the FBI was reopening its investigation of Hillary Clinton?  In other words, was Comey being blackmailed to gather illicit material on Trump?

I think it’s very likely, although entirely unprovable. Even so, Comey has been way too eager to frame Trump for things for which he is not guilty. Why has he been so eager? Was he really just protecting himself as he says or was he gathering information to build a legal case against Trump?

In my mind, Comey tipped his hand when he said that he leaked the memo of his private conversation with Trump to the media in order to precipitate the appointment of a special prosecutor. Think about that for a minute. Here’s what he said:

 “My judgment was I needed to get that out into the public square.  So I asked a friend of mine to share the content of the memo with a reporter. I didn’t do it myself for a variety of reasons, but I asked him to because I thought that might prompt the appointment of a special counsel, so I asked a close friend of mine to do it.”

Listen to Comey.  The man is openly admitting that leaking the memo was all part of a very clearly-defined political strategy to force the appointment of a special prosecutor.  That was the political objective from the get go. He doesn’t even try to hide it. He wasn’t trying to protect himself from ‘mean old’ Trump. That’s baloney!  He was laying the groundwork for a massive and expansive investigation into anything and anyone even remotely connected to the Trump team, a gigantic fishing expedition aimed at taking down Trump and his closest allies.  That’s what Comey’s been up to.  Only his plan didn’t work, did it, because the ‘leaked memo’ didn’t lead to the appointment of the special prosecutor. Instead, someone had to whisper in Trump’s ear that he should fire Comey and, ah ha, that’s all it took.  In other words, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenberg had to step in and give Comey his pink slip before the media could cry “obstruction”, creating the perfect opportunity to appoint “hired gun” Robert Mueller as special counsel. Now that the dominoes are in motion, Comey can trundle off to some comfy job at one of the many rightwing Washington think tanks while Mueller gathers together his team of superstar prosecutors to launch their first broadsides on the White House.

Whoever wrote this script deserves an Oscar. This is really first-rate political theater.

Now it’s up to Mueller to prove that Trump tried to obstruct the investigation by asking Comey to go easy on former national security advisor General Michael Flynn. (According to Comey, Trump said, “I hope you can see your way clear to letting this go, to letting Flynn go. He is a good guy. I hope you can let this go.”)  It might sound like obstruction, but there are real problems with this type of prosecution particularly the fact that Trump denies the allegations. Also, Comey has acknowledged that Trump expressed his support for the overall goals of the investigation when he said, “that if there were some ‘satellite’ associates of his who did something wrong, it would be good to find that out.”

Clearly, Trump was not trying to impede the investigation. But even if he was, it is a particularly murky area of the law and difficult to prove.   Here’s a short clip from an article by Professor Jonathan Turley at George Washington University who helps to clarify the point:

“The desire for some indictable or impeachable offense by President Trump has distorted the legal analysis to an alarming degree. Analysts seem far too thrilled by the possibility of a crime by Trump. The legal fact is that Comey’s testimony does not establish a prima facie — or even a strong — case for obstruction.

It is certainly true that if Trump made these comments, his conduct is wildly inappropriate. However, talking like Tony Soprano does not make you Tony Soprano….

The crime of obstruction of justice has not been defined as broadly as suggested by commentators……The mere fact that Trump asked to speak to Comey alone would not implicate the president in obstruction. ….

It would be a highly dangerous interpretation to allow obstruction charges at this stage. If prosecutors can charge people at the investigation stage of cases, a wide array of comments or conduct could be criminalized. It is quite common to have such issues arise early in criminal cases. Courts have limited the crime precisely to avoid this type of open-ended crime where prosecutors could threaten potential witnesses with charges unless they cooperated.

We do not indict or impeach people for being boorish or clueless … or simply being Donald Trump.” (“James Comey’s testimony doesn’t make the case for impeachment or obstruction against Donald Trump”, USA Today)

The fact that the obstruction charge won’t stick is not going to stop Mueller from rummaging around and making Trump’s life a living Hell. Heck no. He’s going to dig through his old phone records, bank accounts, tax returns, shaky land deals, ex girl friends, whatever it takes. His prosecutorial tentacles will extend into every nook and cranny of Trump’s private life and affairs until he latches onto some particularly sordid incident or transaction he can use he can use to disgrace, discredit, and demonize Trump to the point that impeachment proceedings seem like a welcome relief. It should be obvious by now, that the deep state elites who launched this coup are not going to be satisfied until Trump is forced from office and the results of the 2016 presidential election are wiped out.

But, why? Why is Trump so hated by these people?

Trump is not being attacked because of his reactionary political agenda, but because he’s been deemed insufficiently hostile to Washington’s sworn enemy, Russia. It’s all about Russia. Trump wanted to “normalize” relations with Moscow which pitted him against the powerful US foreign policy establishment.  Now Trump has to be taught a lesson. He must be crushed, humiliated and exiled. And that’s probably the way this will end.

Economic Impact Of US Immigration Policies In Age Of Trump – Analysis

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US President Trump has signed several Executive Orders that point in the direction of a much more restrictive immigration policy. This column, taken from a recent VoxEU eBook, assesses the likely economic impact of such a change in policy. It argues that what is really needed is improved efficiency, flexibility, and allowing more freedom to individuals and markets, including the labour market – not the imposition of more restrictions and constraints.

By Anna Maria Mayda and Giovanni Peri*

During his first hundred days in office, President Trump signed several immigration-related Executive Orders (EOs). These could imply substantive changes to US immigration policies. The stance of these executive actions is in line with the aggressively anti-immigrant positions expressed during the electoral campaign. Two EOs have restricted travel from some Muslim-majority countries – but they have been challenged in the judicial court system and eventually blocked. One has revamped the system for deportation of illegal immigrants and another has pushed forward with plans to extend the wall along the US-Mexico border. Still another EO promotes the ‘Buy American and Hire American’ principle and promises to overhaul the H-1B visa programme, making it harder for US companies to hire foreign temporary workers.

Without real legislative action, which would take significant time and effort due to the need for Congressional approval, the power of these executive measures is limited. However, they all point in the direction of implementing a much more restrictive immigration policy relative to previous – both Democrat and Republican – administrations. This column documents the critical aspects of these policy changes, in order to assess their likely economic impact. Given that these policy changes may have large adverse effects, we will conclude by discussing the political-economy drivers of these policy changes and make educated guesses as to how the current administration might move forward.

Content of Executive Orders

The two ‘travel related’ EOs ban travellers and immigrants from six Muslim-majority countries (Syria, Iran, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, Libya, as well as Iraq in the first executive order) for a temporary period (90 days).1 However, while the first EO targeted anyone from these countries who is foreign-born, independently from their visa status, the second EO excluded from the ban the following groups: those holding green cards, those with already- issued visas, and refugees who have already been granted refugee status by the time of the EO. Both EOs also block refugees from any country for 120 days; the first included a ban on Syrian refugees for an indefinite period, though it did permit exceptions for refugees from religious minorities. Finally, the EOs set the quota for refugees per year to 50,000, reducing the quota of 110,000 planned by the Obama administration for FY 2017. These EOs were suspended as of April 2017.

In EO 13768 (White House, January 25, 2017), the Trump administration also directed US Immigration and Custom Enforcement (ICE) to accelerate the illegal immigrant deportation process by prioritising aliens involved with any criminal activity, and not just those facing serious charges, a change from the Obama administration. Trump’s proposed budget has also included funding increases for border agents to allow ICE to process deportation at a higher rate and intensity.

Trump’s executive actions on deportation of illegal immigrants have met with some political resistance and opposition. A number of ‘sanctuary cities’have emerged that attempt to shield undocumented migrants, although the Trump administration has responded with threats of cutting off federal aid. This issue is currently in the courts and, as of April 2017, a Federal judge had ruled Trump’s executive actions on sanctuary cities unconstitutional.

The Trump administration also issued EO  13767  (White  House,  January  25,  2017) with plans to build a wall, which would cover 1000 miles of the 1,900 miles of the US-Mexico border.2 The White House estimates for costs of construction range from $10- 12 billion, though independent analysts suggest it could be perhaps as much as $25 billion (Lee and Kessler 2017).

Finally, EO 13789 (White House, April 18, 2017) includes provisions to review and tighten the H-1B visa programme with the goal of increasing the number of hurdles that companies would have to clear to hire a foreign-born worker.

Predicted economic effects

These policies have economic consequences, both for the changes they imply and for the fact that they signal the intention of making it even harder, in the future, for US companies, universities, laboratories and research centres to hire foreigners. While   the administration has communicated that it intends to reform the immigration system toward one that is ‘merit based’, its actions and announcements suggest that the overall number of foreign workers – temporary visas and possibly permanent immigration permits – will be reduced.

The executive orders banning travel from the Muslim majority countries have affected mainly students, scholars, and highly educated professionals. The majority of temporary visa holders from those countries work as professionals and many are in professions involving Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM). The ban has created costly delays, complicated legal issues and uncertainty for anyone seeking to hire those immigrants. It has also discouraged highly educated potential immigrants from those and other Muslim countries from choosing the United States as a destination, to the detriment of the US academic and scientific community.

Research reveals considerable evidence that foreign scientists and engineers contribute substantially to US innovation (Kerr and Lincoln 2010), that foreign college-educated workers are more likely to innovate (Hunt, 2010) and that productivity at the local level benefits significantly from their presence (Peri et al. 2015). Additional evidence shows that foreign high-skilled STEM workers complement native-born workers, especially young ones, in US companies (Kerr et al. 2015), and that they make considerable contributions to US productivity growth (Bound et al. 2017).

Overall, these studies suggest that a reduction in high-skilled immigrants is likely to reduce – rather than to increase – opportunities, productivity and wages of the native- born American workforce, especially for the college educated.

The executive order intensifying the efforts for deportation of undocumented immigrants not only threatens the day-to-day life of several million people, it also undermines the economic viability of entire sectors of the US economy. An estimated eight million undocumented aliens currently work in manual jobs in the agriculture, construction, hospitality, food and personal-services industries. Many take on the low paid, physically demanding jobs that American-born workers – who are typically better educated, but also aging – do not want any longer.

Nevertheless, undocumented workers also provide important services to sectors that employ large numbers of Americans workers in different type of jobs, for example    as supervisors, managers, accountants, salespersons, and IT specialists. Less-educated workers tend to complement and extend the work of middle to highly educated Americans (Peri 2012, Ottaviano and Peri 2012). Without the undocumented migrant workers, a number of sectors of the US economy are expected to slow their growth and terminate the jobs currently held by American-born workers as well. Another consequence of the higher US costs could be that American companies have further need to offshore more jobs and import more foreign-produced goods in order to remain competitive (Ottaviano et al. 2015).

US domestic production of several agricultural products could dramatically shrink or even disappear, their imports will increase and their prices become higher. The prices of services in the hospitality, food and personal-services industries may also increase (Cortes 2008), and those sectors will slow their growth. Certain urban economies, such as Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Phoenix, attribute much of their growth to reliance on jobs of less-skilled immigrant workers; these cities may experience bottlenecks and shortages that could result in sectoral decline that would multiply through the local economy (see Moretti 2014).

There is the potential that a few of the manual, low-skilled jobs will be taken-up by Americans, leading to marginal improvements in wages for some local workers. However, the negative impact on job creation of complementary jobs could be more significant (see Ottaviano and Peri 2012, Peri and Sparber 2009, Chassamboulli and Peri 2015) as US workers benefit much more from growth in the intermediate-skill jobs than from manual-intensive, low-skilled employment opportunities.

It is also important to emphasise that the very expensive project of building a wall with Mexico will have economic consequence, in that it will divert government resources that could be used more profitably elsewhere. The core rationale for such a wall is questionable, as immigration from Mexico has been declining steadily for more than   a decade, and the number of undocumented workers has not changed since 2006 (Krogstad et al. 2017). Immigration in the last decade has grown largely because of the sizeable inflow of highly educated young Asians – mainly from India and China – rather than of less-educated Mexicans. In ignoring this fact, public resources will be used to target a problem that no longer exists. Mexico has undergone an economic and demographic transition, so that the number of its low-educated young people (who are those more likely to emigrate) is now much smaller than in the 1990s. The border fence already prevents most of the attempted border crossings and existing projections of economists (e.g. Hanson and McIntosh 2016) show a steady decline in the inflow from that country.

Finally, the main long-run cost of these executive orders could be that they create a climate of perceived hostility to new immigration and decreased openness to foreign workers, including the highly educated ones, and especially those from certain countries. This could divert the highly and internationally mobile scientists, engineers and professionals towards countries such as Canada, Australia and China, eroding the US excellence in their areas, which is a pillar of US economic leadership. While the impact of the executive orders is, as yet, small enough not to be of long-run concern,  a significant decrease in highly skilled immigrants could have more sizeable and permanent effects on growth.

Political economy drivers and implications

It is not surprising that candidate Donald Trump embraced demands for populist measures on immigration, during the Presidential campaign. Public opinion is opposed to immigration in most destination countries, including the United States (Scheve and Slaughter 2001, Mayda 2006). In addition, while the dominant narrative in US political circles is that immigration is a ‘problem’ for Republicans, the opposite turns out to be the case in some counties and states, including those that may be crucial for electoral outcomes. What Trump has understood and exploited is that there is a political pay-off for Republicans in these localities if they ‘act tough’ on immigration during electoral campaigns.

Systematic evidence from a recent analysis of immigration and electoral outcomes between 1990 and 2010 finds that, in US counties where less skilled workers are         a majority, the economy is not urban and local public spending is large, US voters responded to large recent waves of immigration by rewarding the Republican party and its anti-immigrant platform (Mayda et al. 2017). This can be explained in an economic perspective: while immigrants produce aggregate benefits for the economy and employment/wage gains for most Americans, these are mostly for workers that complement immigrants, i.e., the typical example is a highly skilled worker in an urban area. The perception of less skilled non-urban workers, often relying on public assistance programmes, is that they are penalised by immigration. This drives some voters’ demands for populist measures on migration, which Trump has used to his political advantage.

Overall, it is very concerning that the current administration has moved forward, in practice, with these significant changes in immigration policy. It is hard to believe that a businessperson who has employed immigrants himself does not understand the likely economic costs of these policy proposals, especially those affecting skilled migration. One hope is that the administration ultimately chooses to leave behind these clumsy populist attempts at changing US immigration policy. The US economy needs immigration policy reform, but not of this sort. What is really needed is improved efficiency, flexibility and allowing more freedom to individuals and markets, including the labour market – not the imposition of more restrictions and constraints.

Editor’s note: This column first appeared as a chapter in the Vox eBook, Economics and policy in the Age of Trump, available to download here.​

*About the authors:
Anna Maria Mayda
, Associate Professor of Economics, Georgetown University; Research Affiliate, CEPR

Giovanni Peri, Professor and Chair of the Department of Economics, University of California, Davis

References:
Bound, J., G. Khanna and N. Morales (2017), “Understanding the Economic Impact of the H-1B Program on the U.S.”, NBER Working Papers 23153.

Chassamboulli, A. and G. Peri (2015), “The Labor Market Effects of Reducing the Number of Illegal Immigrants”, The Review of Economic Dynamics 18(4): 792–821.

Cortes, P. (2008), “The effect of low-skilled immigration on US prices: evidence from CPI data”, Journal of Political Economy 116(3): 381-422.

Hanson, G. and C. McIntosh (2016), “Is the Mediterranean the New Rio Grande? US and EU Immigration Pressures in the Long Run”, Journal of Economic Perspectives 30(4): 57-82.

Hunt, J. (2010), “How Much Does Immigration Boost Innovation?”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2(2): 31-56.

Kerr, W. and W. Lincoln (2010), “The Supply Side of Innovation: H-1B Visa Reforms and U.S. Ethnic Invention”, Journal of Labor Economics 28(3): 473-508.

Kerr, S. Pekkala, W.R. Kerr and W.F. Lincoln (2015), “Skilled Immigration and the Employment Structures of US Firms”, Journal of Labor Economics, 33(S1): 147-186

Krogstad, J.M., J. Passel and V. Cohn (2017), “Five Facts about illegal immigration in the US”, PEW Research Center.

Lee, M Y H and G Kessler (2017), “Fact-checking President Trump’s Pinocchio-laden Associated Press interview,” The Washington Post, 25 April.

Mayda, A. M. (2006), “Who is against immigration? A cross-country investigation of individual attitudes toward immigrants”, Review of Economics and Statistics 88(3): 510-530.

Mayda, A. M., G. Peri and W. Steingress (2017), “Immigration to the U.S.: A Problem for the Republicans or the Democrats?”, Georgetown University Manuscript.

Moretti, E. and P. Kline (2014), “Local Economic Development, Agglomeration Economies and the Big Push: 100 Years of Evidence from the Tennessee Valley Authority”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 129(1): 275-331.

Ottaviano, G.I.P. and G. Peri (2012), “Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages”, Journal of the European Economic Association 10(1): 152-197.

Peri, G. (2012), “The Effect Of Immigration On Productivity: Evidence From U.S. States”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(1): 348-358.

Peri,  G.  and  C.  Sparber  (2009),  “Task  Specialization, Immigration, and Wages”, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 1(3): 135-169.

Peri, G., K. Shih and C. Sparber (2015), “STEM Workers, H-1B Visas, and Productivity in US Cities”, Journal of Labor Economics 33: 225-255.

Scheve, K. and M. Slaughter (2001), “Labor Market Competition and Individual Preferences over Immigration Policy”, Review of Economics and Statistics 83: 133– 145.

White House (2017), “Presidential Executive Order 13767: Border Security and Immigration Enforcement Improvements”, 25 January.

White House (2017), “Presidential Executive Order 13768: Enhancing Public Safety in the Interior of the United States”, 25 January.

White House (2017), “Presidential Executive Order 13769: Protecting the Nation from Foreign Terrorist Entry into the United States”, 27 January.

White House (2017), “Presidential Executive Order 13780: Protecting The Nation From Foreign Terrorist Entry Into The United States”, 6 March.

White House (2017), “Presidential Executive Order 13789: Buy American and Hire American”, 18 April.

Endnotes:

[1] The two ‘travel-related’ EOs are EO 13769 (White House, January 27, 2017) and EO 13780 (White House, March 6, 2017).

[2] There are currently 650 miles of fencing along the border.

Abu Dhabi Mosque Renamed ‘Mary, Mother Of Jesus’ In Harmony Bid

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A mosque in the UAE’s capital Abu Dhabi has been renamed the “Mary, mother of Jesus” Mosque in a bid to “consolidate bonds of humanity between followers of different religions.”

The mosque — “Mariam, Umm Eisa” in Arabic — was renamed following orders of Sheikh Mohammad bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, Abu Dhabi crown prince and deputy supreme commander of the UAE Armed Forces, who called for consolidating bonds between followers of different faiths.

Minister of State for Tolerance Sheikha Lubna Al-Qasimi thanked the crown prince for his “wise directives in carrying out this initiative that set a shining example, and a beautiful image of the tolerance and coexistence enjoyed by the UAE,” according to a statement carried by WAM.

Rev. Canon Andrew Thompson of the nearby St. Andrew’s Church told Gulf News that he was “delighted” to hear the news.

“We are delighted that we are celebrating something that we have in common between both our faiths,” he said.

“Mary, as the mother of Jesus, is of course a holy, special figure in our communities. She is a woman who symbolizes obedience to God. We look forward to growing in deeper understanding with our neighbors, and we celebrate with them the new name of the mosque.”

The mosque was previously called the Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Mosque.

Earlier this week, a church in the area of Al-Ain opened its doors to Muslims for Maghrib prayers. The event saw more than 200 Asian Muslim workers perform prayers in the church.

Where Is The Palestinian ‘Exodus’? – OpEd

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To mark the 50th anniversary of Israel’s military invasion of Arab East Jerusalem, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, Palestinian activists and Arab and Muslim organizations in the US issued impassioned, well-meaning statements denouncing Israel and urging people not to forget. In the Arab and Muslim worlds, it passed with barely a rumble.

We need to do a better job of telling our story. Palestinians continue to protest and organize conferences where they speak to the choir. Sometimes the activism is effective, such as with the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement. BDS has made gains, but it is still not enough to bring about real change. Israel continues to expand, erasing Palestinian identity.

What we should do is what Israel has been doing since 1948. It knows how to tell its story to mass audiences effectively, even though the story is built on lies, exaggerations and the demonization of Palestinians and anyone who criticizes Israel.

I was in the Middle East section of a major Chicago library the other day, where I found dozens of books by Israelis and Jews who compellingly shared their experiences of “building” a state in the shadow of the Holocaust.

The two sides’ literature is together but is vastly different, not just in facts but in style. The Israeli story is not weighed down by footnotes or even facts. It is not written the way most Arab books are written, as factual but boring academic dissertations. Sadly the truth can be boring, and boring is not read.

The pro-Israel books neutralize the Palestinian narrative. The Israelis succeed in connecting with their audiences, in this case American readers, far better than Palestinians and Arabs have been able to. Very few Palestinian and Arab writers have told their stories in a personal way that might connect with American readers.

It is not just the print industry that is the problem. It is everywhere. The gap between how Israelis present their story and how Palestinians and Arabs present theirs is immense. It exists in movies, theater and on television, not just in popular sitcoms but in documentary channels.

Yet the Palestinian story is very powerful; it makes for great books and movies. I have written about the power of the fictional story Leon Uris wrote about the birth of Israel, called “Exodus.” Uris was commissioned by Israel to create a narrative, a myth that would draw in American audiences. Where is the Palestinian “Exodus”? Do we not have the money? We certainly have the stories. The nightmare in Gaza alone could tug at American heartstrings.

The gap in the effectiveness of the Israeli and Palestinian narratives is based on delivery, not substance or facts. The latter is handicapped by ineffective communications that lack some fundamental basics when speaking to Western audiences, especially Americans.

Those basics include how you say something, not what you say; winning a debate by winning over the audience, not winning the argument; looking, acting, dressing and sounding like the audience you are addressing; and not letting anger, emotion and passion get in the way of the story. Tell the story the way your audience wants to hear it, not the way you want to tell it. Nearly 70 years since the Nakba and 50 years since the Arab-Israeli war, can no one do this?

Journalism, History And War: Sit, Type And Bleed – OpEd

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The typical newsroom set-up, where journalists chase after news headlines dictated by some centralized news gathering agency – often based in some western capital – does not suffice any more.

In the case of the Middle East, the news narrative has been defined by others and dictated on Arab journalists and audiences for far too long.

This hardly worked in the past but, in the last a few years, it has become even more irrelevant and dangerous.

There are millions of victims throughout the Middle East region, numerous bereaved families, constant streams of refugees and a human toll that cannot be understood or expressed through typical media narration: a gripping headline, couple of quotes and a paragraph or two by way of providing context.

The price is too high for this kind of lazy journalism. There is too much at stake for journalism not to be fundamentally redefined by those who are experiencing war, understand the pulse of the region, fathom the culture and speak the language of the people.

The Arab people have, indeed, spoken and, for years, their words were filled with anger and hope. The haunting cries of Syrians and other Arab nations will forever define the memories of this generation and the next.

But how much is our journalism today a reflection of this reality? This harrowing, blood-soaked reality?

American author and journalist, Ernest Hemingway, once wrote, “There is nothing to writing. All you do is sit down at a typewriter and bleed.”

But modern journalism – at least, the way it is communicated in the Middle East at the moment – hardly bleeds. Under the guise of false objectivity, it remains detached, removed from its immediate reality and is rarely expressive of the seriousness of this difficult transition of our history.

The truth is, however, journalism has not failed. We did. We are the ones still unable to appreciate the gravity of what has befallen our region and, by extension, the world at large. We are the ones still singing the praises of the elites and defending the interests of the few.

As for the people, if we do not neglect them altogether, then we turn their misery into fodder in our political feuds.

Equally inexcusable, we pay little attention to history as if the most significant component of our story is the least relevant one.

It is no secret that orientalist history still defines the way that history is written in the Middle East and about the Middle East. We should reject that, not only as a matter of principle, but also because it is both impractical and false.

This orientalist depiction has afflicted journalism, as well. Why do we allow others to define who we are when we are in the most urgent need to define ourselves?

Writing on Palestine for nearly 25 years, I have experienced this strange and persistent dichotomy in both journalism and academia.

Palestine is reported as a recurring, seemingly never-ending ‘conflict’. Media coverage of the ‘Palestinian-Israeli conflict’ always adheres to the same rules, language and stereotypes.

An urgent issue that requires immediate resolution, least because of its regional and global impact, is relegated as if a redundant, uninteresting story.

Many people tend to have short-term memory when the rights of the Palestinians are in question. This feeds quite well into the Israeli narrative, which has aimed to displace Palestinian history altogether, and replace it with something entirely different, albeit a construct; a falsified history.

The latter is not my own conclusion, but a fact, reported in Israeli media itself.

Although files relating to the 1948 ethnic cleansing of Palestinians are still hidden in Israeli archives, one document, according to Israeli newspaper, ‘Haaretz’, has escaped the keen eye of the Israeli censor: file number GL-18/17028.

This file shows the process of how Israel’s first Prime Minister, David Ben Gurion, resorted to Zionist historians in the early 1950s to forge an alternative story as to how Palestinian refugees were expelled. He chose the most convincing one, and that became ‘history’.

This rewriting of history is ongoing and has tainted the present, as well.

How can journalists, then, unearth the seemingly complex truth, without understanding history – not the version conveniently fashioned by Israel, but the history of pain, suffering and the ongoing struggle of the Palestinians?

To report on Palestine and Israel, without fully fathoming the historical roots of the tragic story, is to merely be content with providing a superficial account of what ‘both sides’ are saying, which often favors the Israeli side and demonizes the Palestinians.

The Palestine scenario is now repeated everywhere. The narrative on Syria and other conflicts are guided by preconceived wisdom.

Journalism is still failing to break the stronghold of the old paradigm that relegates the people and focuses, instead, on the rulers, the politicians, the governments and the business elites.

This is the media version of what is known in academia as the ‘Great Man Theory’, a defunct discipline that is sadly used abundantly in the Arab press.

But without the people there is no history, there is no story to be written and change to be expected.

Arundhati Roy is quoted as saying, “There’s really no such thing as the ‘voiceless’. There are only the deliberately silenced, or the preferably unheard.”

The Palestinians and the Arab people already have a voice, and an articulate one. But that voice has been deliberately muted through a massive campaign of misinformation, distortion and misrepresentation.

When Israel and its allies say ‘Palestinians are not a people’, they essentially say that Palestinians have no identity, no legitimate demands, thus deserve no voice.

When the media silences the voice of the people, they relegate their rights, demands for freedom, change and democracy.

Our answer should not be speaking on behalf of the people, but to actually listen to them; truly listen to them and empower their voices so that they articulate their own aspirations and rightful demands, and express their own identity.

Journalism is not a technical profession, a skill to be honed without a heart, without compassion and a deep understanding of the past and the present.

True intellectuals cannot operate outside the realm of history and the Arab region is now undergoing its greatest historical flux in a century.

For journalists to be relevant, they must abandon their position of dictating the news in the same predictable pattern, and delve deeper into the story.

They need to understand that a narrative is lacking – if not at all irrelevant – if it does not begin and end with the people, whose story is not a soundbite, but rooted in a complex reality, in which history should be at center stage.

To be a journalist reporting on the Arab upheaval and not fully fathom the history of the region and the hopes and aspirations of the people, is no longer excusable.

When entire nations are bleeding, it then becomes necessary for journalists to heed Hemingway’s advice: “sit down at a typewriter and bleed.”

DoD Seeks To Stay Ahead Of Cybersecurity Threats, Acting CIO Says

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By Lisa Ferdinando

Staying ahead of the cybersecurity threat requires the Defense Department to hire the best people, partner with industry and practice good cyber hygiene, the DoD acting chief information officer said Thursday.

John A. Zangardi delivered the keynote luncheon address at the Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association’s Defense Cyber Operations Symposium in Baltimore.

“We can’t solve today’s complex problems with yesterday’s thinking or technologies,” he said. “As all of you are well aware, IT innovation today more often comes from industry, and not government.”

But technology alone will not solve the cybersecurity challenges, he said, noting that the issues require an exceptional workforce, a shared commitment throughout the department and collaboration with private industry.

The Defense Department tracks cyber habits across the agency through the DoD cyber scorecard, he said. Good cyber habits are critical in keeping the networks safe, he explained. “The foundation for a resilient cybersecurity posture is cyber hygiene,” he said.

Seeking the Best in Cyber Excepted Service

For DoD to attract the best cybersecurity professionals, Zangardi told the symposium audience, Congress granted the department new authorities to hire cyber professionals under what is known as the Cyber Excepted Service, an enterprisewide approach for managing civilian cyber professionals across the department.

The Cyber Excepted Service will provide more flexibility in DoD hiring procedures, allowing DoD components to source candidates with more options and post jobs clearly identified as Cyber Excepted Service in a range of locations, he said.

“It will also leverage a market-based pay structure to deliver more targeted and competitive compensation packages for critical civilian personnel,” he said, adding that he expects the department will issue the personnel policies for the Cyber Excepted Service in July or August.

Cyber Professionals of Tomorrow

Zangardi highlighted the importance of inspiring the next generation of cyber talent, through mentoring and by encouraging children’s interest.

“The future will require the development of a well-rounded workforce that is proficient in the basics, and the basics to me are reading and writing and math — literacy and mathematics,” he said. “These are enablers for the next generation of cyber talent.”

Building the cyber force of the future includes creating a strong work ethic, developing perseverance and helping children understand that failure is a part of learning, Zangardi said.

“As the department and other employers struggle to attract and retain talent, a larger pool of talent is crucial to our nation’s future competitiveness and security,” he added.


Trump Unleashes Tweetstorm, Asks Why Hillary Not Investigated? – OpEd

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An increasingly furious President Trump has taken to twitter this afternoon to express his outrage, in a way only the President can, over the thinly veiled double standard within the U.S. intelligence community and mainstream media over how they basically ignored the Hillary Clinton email scandal while endlessly pursuing his administration without being able to present a single shred of tangible evidence that any wrongdoing ever occurred.

“Why is that Hillary Clintons family and Dems dealings with Russia are not looked at, but my non-dealings are?”

“Crooked H destroyed phones w/ hammer, ‘bleached’ emails, & had husband meet w/AG days before she was cleared- & they talk about obstruction?”

Of course, he seems to have a point on this one. Last summer, we reported fairly extensively on the Hillary email scandal while it was virtually glossed over by the mainstream media.

And, like many people, we were astonished when FBI Director Comey made the unilateral assessment that, despite Hillary’s “extreme carelessness,” no “reasonable” prosecutor would bring charges against her.

Unlike the current “Russia probe” which has revealed precisely zero tangible evidence, the FBI’s own reports from last summer revealed that Hillary and her staff intentionally destroyed official State Department emails despite confirming they were aware of the existence of a federal subpoena demanding the preservation of those emails.

For the record Mr. Comey, destruction of evidence is actually a federal crime and it was actually admitted to in actual FBI testimony, but only after you, Mr. Comey, decided to pass out immunity deals to Hillary’s staff “like candy”.

And, even though Comey couldn’t seem to find “intent” in Hillary’s destruction of federal property, as we pointed out last September, one lone internet sleuth was able to find it for him with a couple of simple internet searches (see “Dear FBI, This Is Intent: Hillary’s “Oh Shit” Guy Sought Reddit Advice On How To “Strip VIP’s Emails”)…which does make you wonder just how hard he tried?

Of course, until the Trump administration smartens up and calls for the appointment of a ‘Special Counsel’ to look into Hillary’s email scandal, something that should have been done long, long ago, and not for retaliatory reasons but simply due to Comey’s and AG Lynch’s blatant mishandling of the investigation (a point which Deputy AG Rosenstein obviously agreed with), the Democrats have no reason to calm their mass hysteria. Then, and only then, do we suspect that Hillary might just be able to ‘convince’ her party to exercise some form of reasonable judgement.

UK: LibDem Leader Farron Resigns, Says Impossible To Be Christian And Politician

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By Matthew Tempest

(EurActiv) — The leader of Britain’s most pro-EU party, the Liberal Democrats, resigned last night (14 June), saying it was “impossible” to be both a committed Christian and a frontline politician in 2017.

Tim Farron had led the LibDems since 2015, and saw a small increase in the party’s number of MPs at last week’s election, from nine to 12.

However, the seven week campaign saw Farron repeatedly quizzed about his views on abortion, and gay sex – largely drowning out the party’s unique selling point of a second referendum on the terms of any EU exit deal.

Last night Farron was backed by the Archbishop of Canterbury – the most senior figure in the Church of England – who warned: “If [Farron] can’t be in politics media & politicians have questions.”

Farron recorded a short video statement, in front of fellow Lib Dem MPs, where he said “remaining faithful to Christ” was incompatible with leading the party.

Earlier in the day, a senior LibDem who was also gay, Brian Paddick, stepped down from the party over his leader’s stance, whilst the Guardian cited unnamed Labour MPs as saying Farron’s beliefs “had been a gift” on the doorstep during the election.

“I seem to have been the object of suspicion, because of what I believe, and whom my faith is in.
“In which case, we are kidding ourselves if we think yet live in a tolerant, liberal socity.”

He added that “remining faithful to Christ” was imcompatible with being party leader..

“From the very first day of my leadership, I have faced questions about my Christian faith. I’ve tried to answer with grace and patience. Sometimes my answers could have been wiser.

“The consequences of the focus on my faith is that I have found myself torn between living as a faithful Christian and serving as a political leader,” he said in a televised statement.

“To be a political leader – especially of a progressive, liberal party in 2017 – and to live as a committed Christian, to hold faithfully to the Bible’s teaching, has felt impossible for me.”

Farron said he would serve as leader until the summer recess, and then trigger a leadership election.

During the campaign, Farron complained he may not have faced such scrutiny if he had been a Muslim, Jewish or of another faith.

With the ruling minority Conservative Party about to go into a governing alliance with the fundamentalist Protestants of the Democratic Unionist Party, ahead of Brexit talks scheduled for next week, it is clearly not the case that being a politician and being a Christian are incompatible per se.

There are Christians in all the UK political parties. The problem may have been more particular – with the LibDems keen to be the vanguard of social liberalism, Farron’s equivocal positions on gay marriage and abortion proved an electoral liaibility for the UK’s fourth party by size (the Scottish National Party is larger, but only stands in Scotland.)

The frontrunners to replace Farron are London MP Vince Cable, a former minister in the 2010-2015 Conservative/LibDem coalition, and Jo Swinson, who represents a Scottish constituency.

Nick Clegg, the party’s former leader and former deputy prime minister, (and former MEP), lost his seat in Sheffield, northern England, last Thursday.

Farron became a born-again Christian at the age of 18, calling it “the most massive choice I have ever made”.

Serbia: Brnabic First Gay Woman To Be Named Prime Minister

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By Maja Zivanovic

If parliament confirms the choice of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic – as expected – Ana Brnabic, the current Public Administration and Local Government Minister, will be Serbia’s first woman Prime Minister.

Ana Brnabic, the Minister of Public Administration and Local Government, has been appointed Serbia’s first woman head of government.

“Brnabic has the professional quality for government and I know she will work hard and show the respect to all political parties. She will be working, together with all other ministers, on a better life for Serbia,” President Aleksandar Vucic told a press conference on Thursday, adding that “many challenges” lie in front of the Serbia, as well as “many problems”.

Vucic also announced the continuation of the current policy of reforms.

Brnabic was made a minister in August 2016 and is known for her pro-EU stance.

A non-party expert, she is also Serbia’s first known LGBT minister.

Then-Prime Minister Vucic confirmed to the media that Brnabic was gay, also adding that he was not interested in someone’s personal choices in such matters.

“Ana Brnabic and I were talking about that aspect. She does not hide it, she’s proudly talking [about it]. She is so nice and lovely… I told her ‘I’m interested in what you can do, and I know how professional and hardworking you are,” Vucic said on August 8 last year.

Her ministerial appointment was welcomed by Serbian LGBT NGOs, one of which, “Gay Echo”, on February 2 named her “Gay icon for 2016”.

Born in Belgrade in 1975, according to her CV published on the web portal of the Ministry of Public Administration, she obtained a master’s degree in marketing from Hull University, in the UK, and has more than ten years of experience in working with international organisations, foreign investors, local governments and the public sector in Serbia.

It adds that she was a member of the Managing Board of the PEXIM Foundation, a non-profit organisation that grants scholarships to talented university students from Serbia and Macedonia who return to their home country after graduation to help economic and social development.

She was director of Continental Wind Serbia, CWS, and an important phase in her business career was her engagement in various US consultancy firms that executed programs financed by the US Agency for International Development, USAID, in Serbia.

She was also the Deputy Director of the Project for Competitiveness Development, an expert in the Local Government Reform Program in Serbia and higher coordinator of the Municipal Economic Growth Activity.

Brnabic’s CV also says she actively participated in the establishment of the National Alliance for Local Economic Development, NALED, in 2006 and invested major efforts in increasing NALED’s capacities to represent the business sector, local governments and civil society in Serbia.

She was elected a member and then president of the Managing Board of NALED, which became the largest independent private-public organisation advocating an improvement to the business climate in Serbia.

As the new Prime Minister, Brnabic has a mandate to form the new government and may appoint new, or confirm current, ministers.

She will succeed Vucic in the Prime Minister’s post, after he on April 2 won the Serbian presidential election.

Kyrgyzstan: Most Competitive Presidential Race In Country’s History Taking Shape

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When Kyrgyzstan’s prime minister and presidential contender Sooronbai Jeenbekov was serving as governor of the southern Osh region from 2010 to 2015, he became an object of ridicule by some functionaries in the regional government, like Tologon Keldibayev.

“People would ask me: ‘What does the governor do?’” recalled Keldibayev, a former employee of the Osh regional administration who now heads a minor southern-based political party, Kyrgyz-Ata. “I would tell them he wasn’t really the governor at all. He was more like the security guard for the town square in Osh. His job was to look out of the window to see if there was a political rally. And if there wasn’t, his work for the day was done.”

Ignoring such attempts in character assassination, the governing Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan, or SDPK, nominated Jeenbekov in May as its candidate for president. The party is the traditional power base of incumbent President Almazbek Atambayev, who is not running due to term limits. The election is scheduled for mid-October.

Keldibayev, the southern politician, may well be a man with an axe to grind. He headed the Consumer Rights Protection Bureau within the governor’s office before Jeenbekov closed it down. Keldibayev alleges that the shutdown occurred because he failed to show sufficient loyalty to his boss. Whether accurate or not, stories like Keldibayev’s offer a neat illustration of the challenge the SDPK is going to face in selling a relatively bland figure like Jeenbekov to a divided electorate.

The divergent perspectives of Kyrgyzstan’s northern and southern electoral constituencies have played a decisive role in Kyrgyzstan’s past elections. Atambayev’s presidential election win in 2011 — a year after a violent revolution led to the overthrew of southern native Kurmanbek Bakiyev, and inter-ethnic bloodletting in both Osh and the neighboring town of Jalal-Abad — was secured via overwhelming support from Kyrgyzstan’s four northern regions. In the three regions of the south, backing for the president-to-be was far more uneven.

The country’s regional divisions remain strong. And a significant segment of the population in the south, where Jeenbekov, as a southerner, should otherwise draw a certain amount of support by default, continues to view the SPDK with suspicion — as a party that facilitated the accumulation of a disproportionate amount of power by northerners on a national level.

For the upcoming presidential campaign, the race is more crowded than in the past, and with many proper contenders to boot. Two of them are northern former prime ministers — Temir Sariyev and Omurbek Babanov — who publicly backed Atambayev’s candidacy for a single six-year term in 2011.

“This will be Kyrgyzstan’s most competitive presidential election, there is no doubt about that,” said Azamat Adilov, director of the Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society.

Recent municipal elections in Jalal-Abad may have provided a foretaste of the competition and challenges that lie in store for the SDPK. After the previous council was disbanded amid political infighting, Jalal-Abad residents voted for new local representatives on May 28. The results handed a narrow victory to Onuguu Progress — a party led by Bakyt Torobayev, a Jalal-Abad native — over the SDPK. Torobayev is also in the running for president.

Onuguu Progress and the SDPK are now vying animatedly to form a coalition in a council that also includes two parties widely viewed as SDPK proxies, another established party headed by a prominent Jalal-Abad nationalist, and Babanov’s Respublika party.

“These elections had all the major political forces involved, and they showed that the electorate was very split,” said Adilov, whose organization sent a team of 15 monitors to observe the balloting.

Adilov and other observers fear the use of “administrative resources” — code for the deployment of the civil servants, medical workers, students and teachers to rally a strong turnout for a certain candidate — will play a big role in the upcoming national vote. “Traditionally, these levers are in the hands of the leading party,” he said. Nevertheless, other candidates who have held high office in the recent past, like Sariyev and Babanov, “can also tap into these resources,” he said.

For Emil Joroev, a professor of political science at the American University of Central Asia, 58-year-old Jeenbekov is a “logical choice” as a presidential candidate for the SDPK given the party’s lack of recognized northern politicians other than Atambayev. Jeenbekov additionally enjoys an advantage as the incumbent prime minister. “He also has been with the Social Democrats for a long time and is perhaps viewed as someone that Atambayev can place particular trust in as he prepares for retirement,” Joroev told EurasiaNet.org.

As in other ex-Soviet countries, a strong association with an incumbent president can count for a lot.

Atambayev’s time in office has yielded few worthwhile reforms, and the country’s external debt has ballooned during his tenure. All the same, a recent public opinion survey conducted by Siar, a consulting group, showed an 82 percent favorability rating for the outgoing president.

Pundits are expecting the electoral process will require a second round of voting this autumn before a winner is determined. Electoral geography could very well leave a leading southern contender like Jeenbekov facing off against a strong northern candidate, like the wealthy 47-year-old Babanov.

In order to prevent such a showdown, the SDPK may pursue “all out information warfare” against Babanov, seizing on “deep distrust regarding the sources of his wealth among the lay people,” Joroev said.

Still, Babanov’s Respublika party is “a significant political machine” with nodes across the country. The party has performed strongly in the south in the past, he said.

Keldibayev is unenthusiastic about the prospect of either man as president. His preferred candidate, Omurbek Tekebayev, is currently on trial in a graft case that he believes Atambayev engineered to remove him from the pre-election scrum.

Yet the Kyrgyz-Ata founder believes that the election is taking on an increasingly southern flavor. As such, the outcome could hinge on how members of the south’s large and long-suffering Uzbek community vote, as well as be influenced by more mundane material considerations. “I ask Uzbeks who they are voting for and many of them say Babanov. Some southern Kyrgyz say the same,” Keldibayev told EurasiaNet.org.

Youth And Women Radicalization In Singapore: Case Of Syaikhah Izzah – Analysis

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Syaikhah Izzah Zahrah Al Ansari is believed to be the first Singaporean woman to be detained for radicalisation. It marks a troubling shift in how young people including females have been co-opted in extremist propaganda strategy. Online radicalisation will continue to be the principal purveyor of extremism in highly digitized societies with strong anti-terrorism laws like Singapore. Family-centered counter-radicalisation initiatives are needed to address youth vulnerability in radicalisation that can lead to terrorism.

By Remy Mahzam*

Extremist propaganda and radicalisation efforts are often targeted at young people around the world — and Singapore has not been spared. There have also been visible instances of women’s radicalisation and active roles in terrorism. The detention of the first female Singaporean, Syaikhah Izzah Zahrah Al Ansari, for radicalisation serves as a timely reminder that more pro-active measures are needed to counter the threat of radical extremism, especially strategies to address problematic youth interactions online.

With digital technology and social media, extremist narratives are easily made available across mobile Internet platforms and accessible to all age groups. Youths, being the most active media consumers, are the most vulnerable as they are exposed to a myriad of influences including religious extremism. The rise in extremist rhetoric on social media and encrypted mobile-messaging platforms indicates that the virtual domain has become a prized choice for extremist communication.

Radicalisation of Youth and Women in the Age of ISIS

The case of the radicalisation of 22-year-old Syaikhah Izzah is worrying and goes to show that Singaporeans too are susceptible to radical teachings propagated online. Previously, Singapore authorities have detained or placed a total of 13 people under Restriction Orders (RO).

These include two teenagers; 19-year-old M. Arifil Azim Putra Norja’i, who was detained in May 2015, became the first known youth to harbour the intention to carry out violent attacks in Singapore. Another radicalised teenager, 18-year-old Muhammad Harith Jailani detained in August 2015, was even prepared to be trained with the Islamic State (IS) terrorist group and die as a martyr in Syria.

For all of the cases mentioned, radicalisation of these youths deepened over time after being substantially exposed to terrorist propaganda online. Youths navigate an online environment, where they explore their identity, interact with peers, and develop relationships through social network sites, online chats, multiplayer online games and blogs.

While the Internet can be a positive influence in their lives, there is also growing concern about the risks of online interactions. The problem in radicalisation lies not only in the misinterpretation of sensitive religious texts or issues, but also how the interaction with other online contacts in the youths’ virtual network would trigger unhealthy emotional responses and reactions.

Since 2013, Syaikhah Izzah has developed a wide network of foreign online contacts which include militants and supporters of the IS terror group. The virtual peer influence and everyday engagement with her network of extremist friends contributed towards framing her personal aspiration to marry an IS advocate and start a new life with her young child in Syria.

The appeal of redemption and belief in reaping “heavenly rewards” if she marries an IS militant who died in battle is very much the same form of attraction used in IS communication strategy in luring women into migrating to Syria to purportedly fulfill their religious responsibility in an idealised, utopian existence in an Islamic Caliphate.

Terrorism Propaganda Targeted at Young Women

IS propaganda magazines such as Dabiq and Rumiyah often underline the role of women in jihad through the promises that the terror group makes to young women. They are showered with promises of being liberated through the fulfilment of their divine responsibility in becoming important state builders, forming a meaningful sense of belonging and sisterhood as well as achieving true romance through leading adventurous lifestyles.

For extremist groups, the young generation and especially women represent the future as they will become the next generation of stakeholders to champion the extremist ideology and radical beliefs.

Counter-narratives to fight IS propaganda that offers women a shot at creating a utopian lifestyle through adventure and romance are very much lacking and are a conundrum to many. Syaikhah Izzah is one of the many young ladies, in search of a sense of belonging, purpose and identity, who are vulnerable to violent extremism and terrorist radicalisation. Extremist groups would definitely exploit these vulnerabilities and portray themselves as providers of justice and safety, pressuring young women into taking sides.

Family-Centric Counter Radicalisation Initiatives

Syaikhah Izzah’s parents’ unwillingness to report their daughter’s radicalisation tendencies to the authorities, though they are themselves not supportive of her beliefs, indicates a dire need to educate parents on the role of families in preventing and countering radicalisation that can lead to violent extremism.

While the Singapore authorities take a stern view against anyone who supports, promotes or makes preparation to undertake armed violence, the ministry stressed that early reporting of an individual’s case of radicalisation would enable the person to receive proper guidance and counselling. Syaikhah Izzah’s arrest could have been unnecessary if her radicalisation had been reported to the authorities earlier.

Family members and especially parents play the most crucial part in counter-extremism through the shaping of the young minds’ outlook and perceptions in life. They are the front-line actors who form the first line of defence against extremism. To prevent radicalisation, teachers, community leaders and asatizah (religious tutors) too need to play a concerted effort in providing religious guidance and moral support to refute extremist teachings both in the offline and online realms.

Toolkits such as “Resilient Families – Safeguarding against Radicalisation” released by the Islamic Religious Council of Singapore (MUIS) coupled with community outreach programmes can help illustrate the circumstances that lead young people to become radicalised.

*Remy Mahzam is an Associate Research Fellow at the International Centre for Political Violence & Terrorism Research (ICPVTR), a unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

The 2017 Marawi Attacks: Implications For Regional Security – Analysis

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The attacks in Marawi are unprecedented in the length of time terrorists have laid siege on an urban area in the region. Marawi City in Mindanao, southern Philippines has been a warzone. The situation would have been far worse had President Duterte not acted resolutely to place the city under martial law.

By Jasminder Singh*

The Mindanao region in the southern Philippines has suffered repeated attacks from various groups operating in the region over the years. Yet unlike other terrorist attacks, the present one in Marawi will have serious and far-reaching implications, not just for the Philippines, but also for the entire region.

The attempt to take over Marawi City represents a major game changer as this is the first time groups affiliated with Islamic State (IS) pursue their doctrine of qital tamkin — armed struggle aimed at seizing territories wherein Islamic law is applied – in an urban environment in this part of the world. The fact that the key groups and their leaders have been working beyond the Philippines as soldiers of the Khilafah of East Asia, adds significance to the Marawi City attack.

Whole-of-Terrorist Network

There has been chatter on social media that the East Asia Wilayah includes Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Southern Thailand, Myanmar and Japan and that the citizens of these nations will live under the rule of Abu Bakr al Baghdadi which includes the payment of jizyah or tax to Islamic State. Linked to the holding of territory is the significance of the modus operandi of the Marawi City attack.

The IS-led and inspired coalition under Hapilon and the Maute brothers is able to operate as a whole-of-terrorist group. It included a terrorist grouping of various nationalities from the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, and possibly Chinese Uighurs, Arabs and Africans.

The whole-of-terrorist network demonstrates the existence of close cooperation between jihadists from Southeast Asia, including the revival of old networks, especially that of the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI). It highlights the extreme vulnerability of the tri-border region of Southern Philippines, East Malaysia and eastern Indonesia to terrorism in the region.

The multinational presence of terrorists in the Mindanao region is also a reflection of the difficulties jihadists are facing in travelling to Syria and Iraq due to the attacks against IS, and why many are volunteering to participate in regional jihadi flashpoints such as in Marawi City.

IS’ Regional Offensive

An important takeaway from the Marawi City attack is the increasingly regional offensive that IS’ affiliates are launching in Southeast Asia. From a strategic perspective, the region is being targeted as it constitutes a reservoir of Sunni Muslims. Indonesia, for example, has the largest Muslim population in the world and as the Indonesian military notes matter-of-factly, there are IS cells in nearly all provinces.

This is especially critical for IS at a time when it is decentralising its operations in the face of renewed attacks against its forces in the Middle East. Beyond the pursuit of IS’ style of jihadism in the Philippines, there is now the regionalisation of IS in Southeast Asia.

What is going on in Marawi City is something that analysts have been warning in earnest in the past year. The Marawi attacks are likely to motivate other groups to adopt the IS ‘business model’ of attacking government forces and occupying cities in the region.

Such attacks are likely to prove very costly to the region. They would increase instability, increase sectarianism, negatively affect economic growth and create a negative image for the region. For the terrorists, however, this is a positive zero-sum game to win more recruits, publicity, resources and possibly territory.

Many analysts and media outlets have been referring to Isnilon Hapilon or Abu Abdullah al-Filibini as the leader of IS in the Philippines. The latest edition of the IS magazine Rumiyah raises questions on the matter. In it, the Emir of East Asia is identified as one Abu Abdillah Al-Muhajir.

The signification ‘Muhajir’ when applied to the name typically refers to individuals from Malaysia and Indonesia who have joined IS affiliates in the Philippines. Whether Abu Abdullah al-Filibini and Abu Abdullah al-Muhajir are the same person is, for now, an open question.

Possible Counter-Measures

Much remains to be done to make the ground infertile for extremism and terrorism in the region. If this siege is not brought to a decisive end soon, it will lead to jihadist ideologues framing religious arguments in their favour. This will result in a long-term threat to the region.

While de-radicalisation and counter-ideology measures are important long-term measures, the short-term measures are critical in neutralising the terrorist threat. To prevent capture of cities and territories by terrorists, a whole-of-government and a whole-of-society approach is imperative.

Through Operation Tinombala, Indonesia demonstrated that it was possible to neutralise terrorist networks through close cooperation among military, police and intelligence agencies. As terrorists have mastered the art of urban warfare, there is a need for counter-terrorist agencies to acquire urban warfare tactics.

Their being adept at urban warfare has been displayed in the widely circulated video of Isnilon Hapilon and the Maute brothers planning the Marawi siege. Beyond collaboration, there is a need for the police and military to cross-train to completely acquire and master the tradecraft and skills of urban warfare in its various dimensions.

For Southeast Asia, while there is much concern about returnees from Iraq and Syria, with the Marawi attack, there is also the need to be concerned with returnees from the southern Philippines who have experienced a new type of jihad.

As many non-Philippines Southeast Asian jihadists were involved in the Marawi attack, greater regional cooperation would be imperative to defeat the threat of terrorism in the region. The announcement on 13 June that joint patrols in the Sulu Sea will begin within a week displays the seriousness with which governments are approaching the issue.

*Jasminder Singh is a Senior Analyst with the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR), a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

Spain: Catholics Hold ‘Prayer Protest’ After Muslim Mass Prayer At Christian Landmark

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Catholics in the Spanish city of Granada struck back at what they described as a “provocative” decision to stage a Ramadan fast-breaking in front of a statue of the Virgin Mary, by arranging a mass public prayer at the same spot.

“We are here because we can’t allow that to happen. They can’t do it in Granada. They can do so in their place, but not in the Jardines del Triunfo that has been ours for so long,” a Catholic at the event told RT’s Ruptly video agency.

The present-day Jardines del Triunfo started off as 13th century Islamic cemetery during the Muslim occupation of Spain, but is now dominated by a 17th century statue of the Immaculate Conception, located atop a towering pillar.

The decision to stage a prayer to break the daily Ramadan fast on June 10 was taken jointly by a Socialist-controlled city hall and an Islamic group, the Euroarab Foundation.

Socialist mayor Francisco Cuenca said that the ceremony prove that Granada was a “city of coexistence and tolerance” and said that “people of all faiths were invited to participate” in a ritual that would serve as “an invitation to another culture.” Another Socialist city official insisted that “multiculturalism can never be a threat, it is an added value.”

Those who chanted traditional Catholic prayers at the gardens this week, led by a leader with a megaphone, disagreed.

“It was a lack of respect to Catholics. I love everybody: Arabs, Buddhists alike. It was a provocation, and due to the municipality of Granada,” said a middle-aged woman.

Those behind the idea of the public Ramadan celebration have rejected the Catholics’ objections.

“In my opinion, we should not generalize. It was a little group without the support of the Catholic Church administrators. It shows there is a long way to arrive to the full coexistence,” a representative of the organizing committee, who did not wish to reveal her name, told Ruptly.

She also rejected the historical overtones pointed out by the detractors. Originally a Roman, then a Jewish settlement, Granada was home to the longest-surviving Muslim Emirate in Spain, before its conquest in 1492. Until 2003, the city, famous for its Alhambra Palace, did not even have a mosque.

“We don’t want to avenge anything with the selection of the site for the prayer. We chose this site because it’s a central park in Granada and a very big place to share with all the people who accepted our invitation to join,” the organizer told Ruptly.


Common Sense: A Relic Of The Past? – OpEd

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By Tomislav Jakić*

Fairy tales usually begin with the words: “once upon a time. This is not a fairy tale, but once upon a time people used to talk about common sense, and they used to think based on common sense. It was never a totally ideal time, but whenever it seemed that the lack of common sense and the evil in us was about to draw the world into the abyss of self-destruction, common sense would wake up and rebel; most usually in combination with pragmatism. Mankind paid dearly in the ensuing battle; it went through unbelievable horrors, but eventually common sense would prevail. And so it went until the year 1990, when the Cold War ended. World peace was saved only due to the fragile, but at the same time efficient balance of fear, namely on the knowledge that an open armed confrontation would end without any party being victorious. However, as from the beginning of the last decade of the 20th century, when East-West confrontation ended, and due to the fact that the Soviet bloc disintegrated, when the “dawn of democracy” begun shining on countries previously ruled with an iron hand from one centre and by one and only party and its repressive system, we witnessed a constant and steady downgrading in all sectors of life. Because of this, and despite democracy as a system, it is unavoidable that we put to ourselves the question: Does common sense belong to the past; is it a relic of the past?

All indications point toward a positive answer.

In international relations, we are experiencing the revival of the Cold War – a new and increasingly more dangerous confrontation between the United States and the Russian Federation. But in fact, this is nothing more than the almost desperate striving of neoliberal capitalism to “rule the world.” In order to be able to achieve this goal, to gain the support (of previously manipulated citizens, but – alas – in the best democratic form) for the policy of expansionism, regardless of anything, neoliberal capitalism needs an enemy. Because having an enemy is the best way to homogenize one’s own flock. And the enemy has been found, or better to say it was projected in the picture of Russia, although – and this is ironic indeed – it is the democratic West that is today practicing the policy of hegemony, once a trademark of the Soviet Union. All basic principles upon which the architecture of international relations were built have been abandoned. Nobody even thinks of speaking about the principle of equality, or the principle of not meddling in internal affairs of other states, not to mention the right of every country and nation to develop as they think it suits them best. In a globalized world – and we were made to believe that only such a world could exist – everything must be “cooked following the same recipe.” If this is not the case, with or without the blessing of the UN and under the disguise of the war for democracy and for human rights, then bombers will start their deadly missions, mercilessly killing those whose human rights they are supposed to be protecting. Whole states are pushed into chaos and internal fighting; whole regions are destabilized and heads of states are killed (just remember Hillary Clinton and her words, when she received the news that colonel Ghadafi was dead: “We came, we saw, and he is dead!”). At the same time, for billions of dollars, modern arms are being sold to states whose record in the field of democracy and human rights is – to put it mildly – very poor. But they are “ours.” With growing speed, the world is being divided between the ever smaller part of privileged and rich, those who are governing not because they were democratically elected to do so, but because they have the power to do so and the ever bigger part of oppressed – in every sense – and poor, those who are being governed. While thousands and thousands of people are dying from hunger in the undeveloped countries, Europeans waste in one year so much food that every hungry human being on this planet Earth could be fed. And the US president says that climate changes and their evident results are just a hoax. Is there any common sense in all this? No, there is none!

So, what can we expect? Let us put forward two scenarios. The first is the armed confrontation between East and West, be it direct, or be it as a consequence of some action of the unpredictable US president-amateur (for example a missile attack on North Korea). The consequences would be disastrous, not to say suicidal. The second scenario is slightly “milder.” It is based on the presumption that the oppressed, the hungry, and the poor would conclude that they have nothing to lose but their lives, and a tornado of revolution would hit the whole world with a highly uncertain result. Indications pointing toward this scenario can be detected in attacks whose perpetrators are more and more often terrorizing the countries of the West. While it is true that these attacks are – at least – disguised as being religiously motivated, it is not less true that there is no religion that could motivate suicide attackers were it not for the basic and deeply rooted feeling of being pushed to the margins of the society, of being deprived of some basic rights, such as the right to be educated, the right to be medically cared for; in short, the right to live a decent life, as a human being.

There too we confront the results of a policy lacking in common sense, a policy that recruited the oppressed, the poor, but pathological killers too, trying to use them as an instrument for achieving its goals, only to meet now the murderers it produced as its own enemies. There can be no doubt about it – they, the terrorists, were produced by the policies of the West; they were armed and supported thanks to this policy – either directly, or through smaller countries, satellites of the “Big Brother” from the other side of the Atlantic. And now this same policy is confronting them globally. Still the West will not, or cannot accept the fact that the terrorists are the greatest danger for the world as we knew it and that the fight against them should be the prime – and common – target of our civilization. It will not, or cannot accept Russia as an ally in this war. On the contrary, it is continuing to present Russia as an enemy (adversary), adding – if it seems to be suitable – Iran, North Korea and sometimes China. Is there any common sense in all this? None whatsoever!

And is there some common sense in the policy of the so called transition countries? Absolutely not! Former Soviet satellites only changed their master, they became champions in the battle against (non-existing) communism, because it suits neoliberal capitalism, for which the very idea of communism is the worst imaginable enemy. At the same time these countries are deeply engulfed in historic revisionism, “writing” the new history of World War II and the anti-fascist struggle, while “forgetting” their collaboration with Nazi-fascism. The Republic of Croatia, to name one example, invented the formula about “all totalitarian regimes being equal evil,” thus putting on the same level antifascism (labeled for this purpose as communism) and fascism, while the Republic of Serbia – just another example – rehabilitates in court procedures the leaders of the Chetnik movement which collaborated with the occupying forces during World War II and fought against Marshal Tito’s partisans.

The prevailing atmosphere in the world is one of fear for the future, of growing intolerance, of hate not only toward those who are in any way different, but toward those who dare to think differently and to voice their opinion. In the creation of such an atmosphere the once respected journalistic profession played a shameful role. Not only the mainstream media, but social networks too are transformed into a snake’s pit of intrigues, lies, and disinformation servicing the policy that forgot what common sense is.

The rest is silence.

 

*Tomislav Jakić is a journalist who served as foreign policy advisor to the second President of the Republic of Croatia, Mr. Stjepan Mesic.

The opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints expressed by the authors are theirs alone and don’t reflect any official position of Geopoliticalmonitor.com, where this article was published.

A Preliminary Reconnaissance: Female Combatant Participation In Nepal’s Maoist People’s War – Analysis

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Nearly sixteen years since 9-11, the quest to explain individual motivation for participation in “terrorism” has produced a body of gendered work of increasing sophistication. As illustrated by the case of female combatant participation in Nepal’s Maoist people’s war, however, conflation of irregular terminology confuses the issue as to the object of participation, thus the reasons for joining, staying, or leaving. For Nepali women, agency took the form of perceived self-defense enabled by structural deficiencies in Nepal’s democratic polity. Nonetheless, the organizational expression of solution, people’s war, was itself flawed, leading to a mixed legacy of revolutionary impulse.

By Thomas A. Marks, Ph.D.*

As commentary on recent attacks (notably in United Kingdom) has highlighted,[1] few subjects challenge existing security analysis as completely as individual motivation for participation in terrorism.[2] The challenge itself is made all the more complex as a consequence of the present proclivity to label nearly any form of political violence as “terrorism” and any form of internal conflict as “civil war.”[3] The result is thus to seek causation from a poisoned data set, as if primary and secondary group phenomena, psychology and sociology, politics and crime, all are one and the same if only they can be shown to include a subset that is violence against the innocent.  Put another way, dropping the atomic bomb becomes “terrorism” in the same category as the recent car bomb in the secure zone of Kabul in Afghanistan. This incorrect conflation highlights the difficulty of seeking motivation for participation in what obviously are disparate phenomena.

With this in mind, I have spent three months in Nepal during this academic year (July-September 2016, March-April 2017) examining female combatant motivation in the Maoist insurgency which wracked the country from February 1996 to November 2006.[4] It immediately becomes clear why terminology matters so.  What was the violent political activity the female combatants were motivated to join – and how should they thus be labelled? Were they “terrorists” or something else?

Terms of Reference

On the one hand, in Nepal, an insurgency against a democratic state used a people’s war strategy in an effort to seize power and institute a version of Maoism that overtly held – then and (ironically) now – that the pinnacle of political progress was the Chinese Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution.[5]  Not only was terrorism integral to the insurgent effort – the most iconic image of the conflict is an executed teacher hanging from a pole after he refused to pay a revolutionary tax[6] – but the objective, Maoism, ranks well ahead of even Nazism as the bloodiest ideological crime ever inflicted upon the human race.  The Cultural Revolution, in fact, was itself not only a monstrous episode but is considered to be such even by the Chinese. Surely,it might be argued, any participants in such an endeavor merit any label we care to give them, from terrorists to criminals to murderers.

On the other hand, leaders are not followers.[7] The mass mobilization movement that is an insurgency necessarily uses terrorism, but most participants generally do not. They are busy doing other things.We can make stillanother step further, given that this is the sixteenth year of what has oft been termed “the long war,” and ask, “Is it correct, as much literature would do, to say that individuals such as I will discuss below have been radicalized?[8]  Or have they simply been mobilized,[9] individuals whom a group has used as means in the execution of ways to achieve its own (evil) ends? And what precisely should we call them?  Fellow traveler? Clueless hanger-on? Unindicted co-conspirator?

Neither can it be missed that the focus here is female, thus bringing into play another level of analysis and, certainly, our stereotypes.  It is a bit like the surprise that registers when one encounters the prominent role played in the post-World War I revival of the Ku Klux Klan by women[10] or prominent role in the ruthless Maoist movement Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso).[11] Men, after all, goes the cliché, are from Mars, women are from Venus.[12]

Grappling with such concerns goes to the heart of the subject under consideration.  Two issues, therefore, demand focus: subject and object.

If, as it has been in my study, the object of examination is an insurgency, the focus is a political mass mobilization project intent upon forming a new world to challenge with violence the existing world in order to supplant it. Terrorism is but one method among many, and there is limited utility in labelling the subjects involved as “terrorists.”

Necessarily, this also determines that speaking of radicalization is not particularly helpful, unless by the term we mean simply that anyone who moves from nonviolent to violent action has been “radicalized.” This is a stretch, since we would not use such a theoretical approach to describe the indoctrination into combat of those who serve the state.[13]  In this case, we are examining those who have served a counter-state.

The subject – involvement of women – also demands attention.  This can be pursued from two angles, not mutually exclusive but necessarily different.

First, in a violent political mass mobilization effort, why were women targeted and why did they respond eagerly, as evidenced by 20-40 percent of the combatants being female by war’s end? The broad band results from the fact that the 40 percent figure has entered into normal discussion of the insurgency but is supported by no data of which I am aware.[14] It is certainly possible, as will be discussed in the text that follows, that in certain areas, 40 percent of Maoist local cadre were women, but this is quite a different matter.  Further, it cannot but arouse suspicion that the media typically claims as “40 percent women” groups as diverse as FARC and the PKK.  This leads one to surmise that the figure has simply become a default position.[15]

Second, what did they actually do in the conflict, for better or for worse, and how did this jibe with their individual objectives for joining, staying, and leaving (certainly in the shift to post-war covert violence by the Maoists)? Though studies of female participation in “terrorism” often begin by highlighting how little work has been done in the area, there is in reality a very large body of research available when one frames correctly the project being examined.[16]

Engendering People’s War

First, we must turn to context. Having evolved from a closed polity dominated by a hereditary prime minister to a constitutional monarchy reigning in uneasy partnership with a parliament, Nepal was by the 13 February 1996 outbreak of insurgency a formal democracy. In reality, socio-economic-political issues, complicated less by democratic process than by an exploding population and geographic reality (the country is both landlocked and dominated by rough terrain), resulted in a stratified order defined as much by community (a mix of Hindu caste, linguistic, and ethnic divisions), class (economically, one of the poorest countries on earth and as close to a zero-sum game as can be imagined), dysfunctional politics (near-fatally wounded by corruption and the universal practice of democratic centralism by all major political parties), and patriarchy. Into this mix was thrown the determination of a small Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) to make a revolution.[17]

Working hand-in-glove with the Maoist parties that were members of RIM, the Revolutionary Internationalist Movement, the Nepali Maoists questioned only the timing for the launching of their people’s war not the morality or practicality of the endeavor.[18]  Though male-dominated, the insurgent organization (a product of the usual infighting and factionalism that is integral to revolutionary politics) always included women.  It was also true, though, that from first to last, the organization and its movement remained patriarchal and that no leadership position was entrusted to, or decision of moment eventuated from, a woman. Though a separate Women’s Department existed throughout the struggle, headed by Hisila Yami aka Parvati, wife of the longtime second figure in the movement, Dr. Baburam Bhattarai, it did not play a leadership role; and no woman occupied a position in decision-making.[19]

This should not surprise. Nepali Marxist analysis was never able to look beyond “class” as the fundamental contradiction from which all else derived and revolved. While basic political economy analysis serves to highlight cleavages,[20] and feminist theory today speaks to intersectionality,[21] the numerous fissures present in Nepal were not used in and of themselves as anything but tactical avenues of approach.  Rather, they were presented as but symptoms of the economic situation (i.e., class). The poor position of women societally, which included various forms of violence (to include widespread rape[22]), was thus never treated as a theme for mobilization, only as an opportunity to bring individuals into an organizational matrix where indoctrination would reveal the ultimate class (i.e., economic) basis for their alienation and marginalization.

This was a flawed approach, but this did not become clear initially. Intersectionality, used in conjunction with cleavage analysis, was certainly a more powerful tool than a theory of contradictions driven only by class.  This completely escaped Nepali Maoist theorists. Still, the fundamental point was that, unlike, say, most violent radical Islamist movements, the Maoists sought manpower wherever they could, even if it was “woman power.”[23]Emphasis upon “exploitation” and “injustice,” therefore, proved more than sufficient to produce a steady influx of women into the insurgency, a trend which dramatically accelerated once the people’s war had moved (in planning as well as in reality) from the defensive to the stalemate and offensive phases of strategic unfolding.

A central point for research emerges from this fact.  Maoist strategic approach called for violence to create the space for political organizing, with the Party firmly in control of strategy and operations.  Terrorism and guerrilla action by local forces eliminated or neutralized individual resistance as well as the structure and forces of the state.  Teachers, for example, more than 300 of whom were victims, were a particular target, as were local government offices at the county and district levels (there were 3,913 of the former, constituted as elected Village Development Committees, under 75 districts, which had appointed officials).  Police, the armed local presence of the state, were forced to retreat to the district capitals and several urban centers as their smaller stations in rural areas (where 85 percent of the population lived) proved indefensible against a foe which could pick time and place for attack.

With the November 2001 assault upon the Royal Nepal Army (RNA) barracks in Ghorahi, capital of Dang District, the conflict shifted its emphasis to fielding of regular forces by the insurgents to challenge the military forces of the government.[24] Terrorism and guerrilla action continued, as did a variety of nonviolent forms of warfare, such as mobilization through front organizations, extensive use of propaganda (especially through agitprop teams energized through new, revolutionary song and dance), and efforts to neutralize external support for Kathmandu. Yet the focal point of insurgent effort became fielding battalions (constituted as standard squads, platoons, and companies), which themselves were under brigades and finally divisions.

It was only at this point that women began to flow in substantial numbers into the combatant ranks. This is why one can only speak of a 20-40 percent range. Prior to November 2001, most women in the insurgency, as with most manpower in general, were at the local level.  Though they took part in terrorism, the numbers in guerrilla units were limited; indeed, so limited that experiments with all-female units were tried to maximize performance and incentives for recruiting. It also appears to be the case that local terrorism was overwhelmingly committed by men, to the near-exclusion (as per the available data) of reports of direct female acts.  Women’s participation in martial violence, however, was transformed by the widespread flow of women into regular combatant ranks, where they participated on an equal basis with men.

The implications of this brief description for this study should be clear. Combatant units were comparable to Viet Cong main force units and spent nearly all their time preparing for and executing “military” tasks.  Though tasking might flow through channels directing a squad to report to local Party authorities for the purpose of executing a convicted “spy,” the astonishing abuses that characterized the insurgency – 17,000 dead (victims of both sides) and an order of magnitude higher in terms of brutalized and kidnapped (primarily by the insurgents), with attendant criminality and violence necessary to raise funds and recruit manpower (again, overwhelmingly by the insurgents) – were in the main done by those outside my study’s focus.

This division of labor is too often missed in recent studies as a consequence of the present near-universal tendency to dismiss the past in endeavoring to understand the present. Lost in the rush – to see, in particular, violent radical Islamist mobilization as “terrorism” – has been the reality highlighted earlier in citing the work of James C. Scott: insurgencies are complex organizations in which most participants’ motives are in some manner divergent from the meta-narratives and even objectives of the political project.  Leaders are politicians who assess the imperfections of the world and advance ideological solutions to the reformulation of the political opportunity structure.[25] Followers are in essence voters who are motivated by a wide variety of individual concerns,[26] now expressed in the “greed versus grievance” shorthand.[27]  This formulation is often less than entirely useful when it becomes an analytical excuse for indifferent exploration of the complexity attendant to individual recruitment, but it does serve to highlight that only through indoctrination does the former give way to the latter.  Certainly a common frame and narrative provided by culture, of which religion is a central component, serve to lower the bar necessary for indoctrination to take place.  This has been a central feature of the violent radical Islamist cases (e.g., al-Qaeda and Islamic State) but was also important in Nepal, where the manpower was often, even when from minority communities, largely a product of Hindu acculturation and caste socialization.  Regardless, the point is that leadership, as in any political effort, must find a way to rally the side to the project at hand.[28]

Motivation for Mobilization

Still, given the realities of the insurgent organizational and strategic model adopted, all Nepali female combatants began as local Maoist party members.  This necessarily resulted in a certain level of personal avoidance in post-war grappling with what had been seen and done, but this was no more than to be expected in a brutal conflict.  It was, in fact, brutality which was the overwhelming driver creating the link between societal imperfection and the resort to violence to set matters right. The actual mechanism of establishing links with the insurgency was normally achieved through networks of family or friends who already had the desired connections.

In order to examine the counter-state, in-depth interviews were conducted with 45 female People’s Liberation Army (PLA) veterans, overwhelmingly officers, with shorter interviews conducted with a dozen more.  These were accessed through the PLA female veterans association, which claims some 5,000 members.  There are reportedly an equal number of Party members who have not joined any formal organization. Selection of those interviewed was “top-down,” in the sense that key female command personalities were known in advance by name and were located, then interviewed, with subsequent interviews deriving from working down the chain of command.

Particular focus was upon women who had commanded at the battalion or brigade levels, though, in a major finding, it was determined that while the former position was earned through combat attainment, the latter was overwhelmingly awarded for PLA organizational reasons once the insurgents had entered regroupment camps, and then only to the second-in-command (2IC) level.  A single female earned brigade command rank (of 33 slots under 7 divisions, the latter notionally of 5 brigades each), and she was promoted from a commissar position after the end of overt hostilities. Indeed, the promotion process for women, as will be discussed below, reflected patriarchal norms bending to expediency as much as realization of professional metrics.

Regardless of rank, each individual was engaged in an interview protocol which allowed stories of recruitment and career progression to unfold. All interaction was conducted in Nepali, and no individual could be interviewed in English (or even engaged in light conversation), a reality which extended to male combatants who were necessarily encountered in the course of the fieldwork (overwhelmingly, female ex-combatants were married to male ex-combatants).  Two experienced female researchers with whom I have had longtime professional association were used simultaneously during each interview to ensure fidelity.[29] All contact was arranged through Maoist intermediaries, which allowed access to individuals who now are in rival Maoist factions but nonetheless had fought together in the common cause.

That cause, for the normal combatant, regardless of rank, was a quest for social justice. The perceived injustice attendant to a traditional society that remains in the bottom twenty economically was compounded by a sense of powerlessness stemming from the reality that the promise of democracy and formal ending of social inequities such as untouchability and patriarchy, in reality, had resulted in too little visible change for the overwhelming majority of the population.  This was especially true for women, whom data demonstrate not only do the bulk of the work in Nepal but suffer from a high level of structural and personal violence.  Being locked in a shed during monthly menstruation (Chhaupadi), for example, regardless of time of year, persists in certain areas of the country.[30]  So, regrettably, does rape.[31]

The concept of “intersectionality” speaks to the mutually determinant and reinforcing nature of such “contradictions.”  None exists in isolation, with the disadvantaged position of women a natural consequence. This is what positions them to allow particular insight into the insurgent recruiting dynamic.  For it was the Maoists who stepped into the void.

Though it could be argued that societal progress was slowly being made, this was in a sense swallowed by several factors.  First, there was the unmet expectation that democracy, which had been instituted in 1990, would make a difference more quickly than was the case.  Second, there was the continuing patriarchal nature of the dominant political parties, which meant women’s voices were invariably used as tokens of enlightenment but held no power.  Finally, there was a mushrooming population that by the 2001 census saw more than half the population 19 and under.  For this group, there was little if any memory of societal improvement, whatever its pace, only of an existing, imperfect world.

Into this void the Maoists interjected their narrative of exploitation, which framed democratic reality as feudal, capitalist exploitation by an internal colonial dynamic controlled by the Nepali-speaking top two Hindu castes, Brahmins and Chhetris, allied with the external imperial forces of America and India. Such a line would likely have remained on the sidelines were it not for the clumsy and brutal state response that interjected itself into areas of what was initially Maoist political as opposed to violent mobilization. The behavior of the unprepared police was a textbook case of creating the very conflict it sought to address.  The army (there were no other services) would reinforce this dynamic but was committed only after it was attacked in late 2001.  Similarly, a police field force, or Armed Police Force, APF, was only formed the same year.  It would also suffer from instances of indiscipline, but it was too small to be a major player until late in the process of counterinsurgency.

As men bore the brunt of repression,it was they who dominated the insurgent profile.  Yet as women saw their families and persons violated, they, too, flowed into the rebellion in increasing numbers. At this point in time, it is difficult to discern definitively the boundary between actual and perceived atrocity, but this was in a sense irrelevant as concerned mobilization. The dominant impetus to take up arms was the perceived need for self-defense, and it was this motivation which galvanized linking assessment of societal imperfection to political commitment.  From the latter followed quickly the desire to “make a difference” through bearing arms.

Not surprisingly, this surfaced initially amongst minority populations in districts with exceptionally poor development metrics even by Nepali standards.  From Rukum and Rolpa in the Mid-Western Development Region, the insurgency rapidly spread.  Not only did these districts suffer at the hands of security forces’ indiscipline, but they had an ample number of veterans of military service (overwhelmingly in the Indian Gurkhas) who proved willing to pass on martial skills. Eagerly seeking to learn were recruits who reflected the astonishing youth of the Nepali population in general. Predictably, the Maoists focused upon recruiting the young. Of the 45 (full) interviewees, 17 were recruited when 15 and under, another 24 when between 16 and 18.  Thus 91 percent of the total were very young, though most had at least some of what we would term a middle school education (again, I was interviewing overwhelmingly officers).

Whatever may be said as to their “child soldiers” status legally,[32] a more salient demographic point was that 33 of the sample, nearly three-quarters, came from families with 5 or more children (with 6 or more being a plurality).  As an additional 6 subjects provided unclear data, only 5 of the women came from families with 3 or less children (oddly, there was no family with 4 children in the sample).

Though the conflict was a nationwide phenomenon, its concentration mirrored its violent birth and was concentrated in the western part of the country, with the heartland being in the Mid-Western region (wherein lie Rukum and Rolpa).  The sample reflected this reality, though there was no particular dominance of groups that provided the initial impetus for revolt.  Magars, for instance, though central to the takeoff of the insurgency, were prominently represented at battalion command level (3 of 5 in the sample) but provided but one of the 6 brigade level (sample) command positions. As it is known that key commanders were in fact both Magar and male, it is possible that a different result would come from a reversed gender focus.

Regardless, Nepali was indicated in interviews as the movement language of command and interaction, though other ranks spoke whatever worked best in particular circumstances.  Eye-witness accounts of Maoist assaults attest to the mix of languages spoken by combatants.[33]  There appear to be no extant accounts of dissension in the ranks, and desertion was unusual, among women, very uncommon.

You’re in the Army (PLA) Now  

Actual entry into the Maoist movement was always through the Party.  It was there that socialization and indoctrination occurred. The youth of recruits, the well-developed framing process inherent to people’s war in general and the Nepali version specifically, and the commitment of veterans to the professed goal of societal transformation, all served to facilitate the rapid absorption of a Marxist-Leninist vocabulary and analytical approach to assessment and action. A system of commissars and consultative mechanisms reinforced the communist nature of the endeavor.

The transition to combatant, when it came, was a natural evolution.  The desire to “make a difference” combined with the opportunity for direct action to propel most subjects willingly into the ranks of the PLA.  The rapid expansion of the organization provided ample opportunity for advancement, and the Maoists demonstrated much greater awareness and flexibility in their utilization of individual skills than the state.

It could hardly have been otherwise given the realities of insurgency. The old-order was defending established prerogatives and procedures and deploying armed manpower as such.  There was minimal understanding of the need for a holistic approach through whole-of-government mobilization that addressed the roots of conflict even as it addressed insurgent message and strategy. To be fair, the state had such limited means that it would have been in a difficult position regardless of approach. Still, its rigidity and lack of imagination were to some extent overcome only when a parallel military was in effect created through the formation of a U.S.-sponsored Ranger capability and the simultaneous fielding of officers who were products of Western military education and training, hence counterinsurgency thinking (which remains dominated by nonkinetic aspects in theory if not always in practice).

In contrast, the new-order that was “the revolution” reflected the time-tested principles of people’s war.  This meant advancing on lines of effort that brought into play a correct mix of kinetic and nonkinetic campaigns for the purpose of neutralizing state power at the local level.  Once the struggle to dominate the rural areas in order to encircle the urban areas had progressed to the effort to impose strategic stalemate through attacking the military head-on, a pronounced process of militarization put recruiting for the PLA into overdrive.  It was in this period that female commanders came into their own.  A combination of expansion and casualties (in what had been predominantly male-held positions) resulted in numerous women advancing to command even as a larger proportion of the line became female.

Estimates, as noted earlier, tend to throw out a figure of 40 percent, but this seems unlikely when examining the bulk of the conflict.  It was only a pronounced surge in manpower recruitment that occurred after the collapse of the conflict’s second ceasefire, which took up the first half of 2003 (and was tactical upon the part of the Maoists), that saw a substantial increase in female numbers, perhaps to a third.  Yet most of these saw limited combat.

Neither, though, should this estimate be applied to the movement as a whole, where it is entirely possible that figures for women could have reached 40 percent.  It was in the Party organizations, both political and military (i.e., local forces), that manpower was concentrated.  And at the local level, female participation, while not as widespread as for males, did not lag substantially behind.  Only in the actual implementation of terrorism, as mentioned earlier, do women seem dramatically under-represented; and no woman interviewed admitted to participation or even to witnessing such acts – which were so numerous that they could not be missed – even as they would discuss, as relevant, participation in the structured execution of “spies” (i.e., executions carried out by PLA units responding to orders passed within the chain of command).

Regardless of the precise form of violence, for Nepali women to make the transition to combatant status required a level of commitment and determination that was commensurate with the societal barriers, both physical and mental, that stood in the way to participation as equals in combat operations.  At the operational level, few allowances were made for male:female differences, particularly menses and pregnancy, with a proportion of the interviewees having engaged in combat while in advanced stages of pregnancy. The latter stemmed from consensual, officially-sanctioned relationships only, because the movement maintained absolute control over participants’ sexuality.

It was this equality of terms of service and participation in combat which has served to spark a debate concerning the female empowerment involved.  One position, particularly those speaking from a radical perspective, lauded the trend and claimed it to be transformative. An opposing position emphasized the tactical and contingent nature of the equality, since the organization and its strategy remained, from first to last, a male-dominated project.  Hisila Yami, head of the All Nepal Women’s Association (Revolutionary) and a Central Committee member, mentioned earlier, has been regularly lauded by foreign commentators for her central position in opening up avenues for women within the Maoist movement; but she in reality appears to have had little or no influence upon decision-making. Her role stemmed principally from her marriage to the longtime second ranking Maoist figure, Dr. Baburam Bhattarai.

Of greater moment were those female combatants who rose to PLA command positions, but they, to a woman, in interviews, were those whose observations most keenly reflected awareness of the limits imposed upon them by patriarchy – a term they used readily (and correctly), though it is hardly one derived from Maoist idiom. As noted earlier, no woman, regardless of combat attainment, was promoted to brigade command during the conflict; and the sole woman to become a brigade commander, Kamala Naharki aka Sapana (35 years [34]), was elevated only after the peace process was initiated and the PLA had moved into regroupment camps.  This was also the case of important female battalion commanders such as Leela Sharmaaka Asmita (35), Sushila Kumari Gautam aka Sushma (35), Sabrita Dura aka Astha (39), and Kushal Rakshya (32), though the latter may have received her promotion just before regroupment.

The one noticeable exception, Lila Mahara Paudel aka Kalpana (34), perhaps emphasizes the point. Though she had an exceptional combat record, with command at the intervening levels through brigade, she was but a brigade 2IC when peace came.

A number of explanations for this and other cases can be advanced.  Kalpana herself noted in a discussion, “It was because women started participating in the war later than men. This is why there were fewer women in commanders’ positions.  Women joined later because of their lack of awareness. They needed to be oriented from scratch.”

To be sure, actual combat experiences varied, but the Nepali conflict had by November 2002 at Jumla already seen a significant massing of insurgent main force battalions that sought to overrun government reinforced companies in defensive positions.  Hence combatants were exposed to both small tactical actions and major engagements consequent to operational art, with converging columns, simultaneous attacks nationwide to confuse and diminish response, and integrated nonkinetic elements such as propaganda and front activity deployed to force-multiply. Women successfully commanded such actions and often had time-in-grade similar to men, so Kalpana’s explanation requires further examination.

All major tactical actions embodied in operational art unfolded according to regularly promulgated strategic plans that explicitly sought political effects from the marriage of kinetic and nonkinetic actions.  These were carefully explained before operations, then critiqued in after-action sessions. In interviews, women time and again emphasized the liberating and empowering impact of such consultation.

Legacy of War

The overt phase of conflict was 1996-2006. Thereafter, 2006-2016, a covert effort was waged to seize power using paramilitary forces, notably the Young Communist League (YCL) and student organizations.[35]  Most female combatants appear not to have participated in this second decade of strife, though certainly some did, as well as many female Party activists.  Leadership of the effort was, as during the overt phase, essentially male. Nonparticipation in the main, however, stemmed from the most prosaic of causes: domesticity.

Even as women advanced in the combatant ranks, profound political changes saw the reigning monarch declare royal rule in early 2005.[36]  This had the effect of sidelining the legal political parties, which, under Indian auspices (New Delhi marching to its own regional hegemonic requirements), formed a united front with the Maoists to overthrow the monarchy. Once achieved, though, this action gave way to the violent transitional period noted above.  As decided at a key September 2005 strategy meeting, the Maoists had opted for peace as a tactical gambit.

Already in control of 80 percent of the population, they intended the “post-war” period to provide access to the “white areas” (i.e., those under state control) and the opportunity for mass, decisive action (i.e., an urban uprising) in these same areas.[37]Central to this strategy was the peace provision that placed both the military and the PLA in supervised areas, the former in its normal barracks, the latter in newly constructed regroupment camps.

Even as the PLA moved into these camps, though, key PLA personnel moved out into the YCL, with their places taken by local forces and new recruits.  It was this reality that opened up the brigade level command slots (albeit 2IC) for women. In fact, though some women moved laterally into the paramilitary YCL, most did not.

Instead, as the years wore on – five, altogether – marriage and starting a family became the chosen course of action.  Potential partners were overwhelmingly selected through traditional pairing procedures, though in the revolutionary movement, choice was always necessary. In pairing, as well, traditional norms asserted themselves, with the male often of senior rank to the female.

Not traditional at all, however, was the overwhelming domination of out-marriage (i.e., intercommunal pairings).  This breaking of the mold obviously extended, examination indicated, to the actual nature of the spousal relationships.

Ironic, given the explicit targeting of “bourgeois education” by the Maoists, was the total commitment to education of their children expressed by every interviewee.  Though several did not yet have children (and couple of them have remained single), most had two or more and (as determined through the interview process) were going to exceptional lengths to see to their education.

It was the loss of their own educational opportunities which was most regretted by many of the ex-combatants when asked to reflect upon their choice “to join the revolution,” the terminology used by all. None, though, felt that they were taken advantage of with respect to their youth.  Rather, they compared themselves to those populations which found themselves savagely occupied in wartime and hence produced resistance movements in which all, regardless of age or gender, participated.

Most now see value in the armed political project to which they committed themselves, and most see profound change in Nepali society as a result of their efforts.  Simultaneously, though, there is a mix of wistfulness at unrealized potential accompanied by bitterness, often very direct even extreme, directed at senior Party figures who it is felt have parlayed their position atop rapidly changing circumstances into power and wealth.  In contrast, a large proportion of the combatants, certainly many below officer rank, have struggled.

This reality has been extensively covered in Nepali and some foreign outlets.[38]Many of the women interviewed, both those questioned in-depth and those of the more brief encounters, had been wounded; they spoke of symptoms that clearly were associated with PTSS; and they noted the profound disconnect they now experienced with a still very traditional society. As a private self-help organization, Ex-PLA Women’s Academywas formed in 2013 but proceeds with limited funding.

None of the support network that came into being in the U.S. with the return of the First World War veterans exists in Nepal. Demobilization, when it finally came, brought a lump sum payment, which the astute parlayed into employment or lodging; but for most, it was too little to make up for youth devoted to a great cause which had given way to a new-order that looked remarkably like the old.

This bears comment. Speaking as a longtime observer, I find Nepal has advanced considerably in the past two decades.  The key question is whether violence was necessary to achieve that end.  The question was put to every interviewee. The answers should give pause.

Most women were obviously empowered personally by their experiences and their Marxist-Leninist education, especially officers.  Experiences allowed the breaking of societal strictures and the growth that went with command and achievement under the most severe circumstances.  The particular education of Marxist-Leninism, driven overwhelmingly by the need to identify contradictions and to rank order enemies, provided a methodology to structurally analyze society and its shortfalls. Unfortunately, as Max Weber is purported to have observed, Marx was 100 percent correct, he simply [in claiming all stemmed from economics] missed two-thirds of reality, the other legs of the stool being status and politics.

Though I found none who had heard of Weber, the interviewees know they are missing something, and they label it “education.” They are determined to see that their children are schooled, and a majority spoke bitterly of their youthful acceptance of the Maoist line that they were receiving “bourgeois education” that was “useless.” They are not completely sure what a good education looks like, but they know what they have learned in the Party is not sufficient. In fact, it is the remaining legs of the Weberian analytical triad that are missing. Not one of the interviewees today supports the notion that class trumps all.

Worse, with Leninism thrown in atop Marxism, they have an approach for destruction but none for construction. Nepali Maoism, to return to the point made at the beginning of this article, exults as the zenith of human progress what in reality was one of its great depths, the Cultural Revolution. Not even acknowledged by the Maoist leadership – I know this from interviews with them – is the reality that the abomination of Pol Pot’s “Year Zero” resulted from an attempt to out-Maoist the Maoists. To take this a step further, every interviewee was asked, beyond jus ad bellum (i.e., was it right to go to war, to use violence?),to reflect upon jus in bello (i.e., the conduct of the war).  The inability to grapple with this issue has already been noted.

Senior figures, however, to include all those at the brigade level, were keenly aware of the strategic approach integral to people’s war: the need to destroy the old-order to create the new.  This meant, as articulated directly by all, that the power of the state – exerted through its personnel and institutions in local areas – had to be neutralized.  To the extent this could only be achieved with violence, then such was reality.

The obvious contradiction in this analysis, particularly when the object is a democratic state, however imperfect, was long ago addressed by Lenin. It is the vanguard party, he stated, that is the bearer of correct interpretation of societal realities and the necessary way forward. That position, as irony would predict, was offered by no interviewee, regardless of current level of political awareness or involvement.

About the author:
*Dr. Thomas A. Marks
, a member of the advisory board of Mantraya, is Distinguished Professor and Major General Edward Lansdale Chair of Irregular Warfighting Strategy at the College of International Security Affairs (CISA) of the National Defense University (NDU), Washington, DC. The views expressed are personal academic views and should not be construed as official commentary. This occasional paper is a part of Mantraya’s ongoing “Women in Peace and Conflict” and “Mapping Terror and Insurgent Networks”  projects.

Source:
This article was published by Mantraya

Endnotes:
[1] E.g. Max Fisher and Amanda Taub, “Looking for Meaning in Terorrism,” The New York Times, 24 May 2017,which delves into the psychology of the May 2017 suicide bombing in Manchester; available at various but see: http://www.tiffehr.com/post/161037488425/the-interpreter-looking-for-meaning-in-terrorism (accessed 14 June 2017); and Anjana Ahuja, “Psychologists Delve Into the Mind of a Terrorist,” Financial Times, 7 June 2017 (Wed), 9, which appeared after the early June 2017 London Bridge car ramming and shooting of pedestrians by a trio who were shot by responding police officers; available at:   https://www.ft.com/content/eb62e2a4-4a0b-11e7-a3f4-c742b9791d43 (accessed 14 June 2017).

[2] My definition accords with that used by most of academia, the various departments of the U.S. government, and both U.S. and international law: violence by sub-state actors directed against the innocent for political purposes. Despite the by now hackneyed observation that there is no accepted definition of terrorism, in reality there is considerable agreement with the formulation just provided, particularly amongst the states of the United Nations.  For discussion see esp. Reuven Young, “Defining Terrorism: The Evolution of Terrorism as a Legal Concept in International Law and its Influence on Definitions in Domestic Legislation,” Boston College International and Comparative Law Review 29, no. 1 (1 December 2006), 23-84; available at:  http://lawdigitalcommons.bc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1054&context=iclr (accessed 1 June 2017).

[3]The bastardization of the term “civil war” is covered, albeit briefly, in the larger excellent discussion of the term in a recent work: David Armitage, Civil Wars: A History in Ideas (NY: Alfred A. Knopf, 2017), see esp. the discussion in the final chapter (pp.196-239), which notes the creation of a state of civil war (traditionally, a house divided against itself) through the adoption of arbitrary quantitative measures driven by nothing more than a need to be able to count cases.  This has led to a well-nigh total abuse of the term and to its lack of analytical utility.  The conflict in Colombia, for instance, typically identified as a “civil war” due to the level of internal violence, was not in any way a battle between contending sides gathering to themselves allegiance in such manner as to create a state of belligerency. For the actual situation, wherein the main challenge for power was driven by a criminal fundraising profile dominated by narcotics, kidnapping, and extortion, see Thomas A. Marks, “FARC, 1982-2002: Criminal Foundation for Insurgent Defeat,” Small Wars and Insurgencies 28, no.3 (June 2017), 488-523.

[4] Funding was provided by a MINERVA grant.

[5] Perhaps predictably, there has been an increasing tendency in the past decade to read back into the overt conflict (1996-2006) an ostensible Maoist ideological moderation which simply was not there at the time.  In late 2008, for example, Nanda Kishor Pun aka Pasang, Red Strides of the History: Significant Military Raids of the People’s War, trans. Sushil Bhattarai (Kathmandu: Agnipariksha Janaprakashan Griha, October 2008), iii, asserted:  “For the extermination of the old order, the People’s War (PW) was initiated on 13 February, 1996 under the efficient leadership of Chairman Com. Prachanda by CPN (Maoist).  The people’s war is advancing continuously in the wave-like forms horrifying the domestic and foreign enemies and creating a hurricane to shake the world.  Awaking the world in the 21st century, the PW is advancing forward ideologically and politically for a revolutionary social, economic and cultural transformation following the Chinese Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution (GPCR), and is oriented to develop Marxism-Leninism-Maoism.” At the time he authored the original text in Nepali, Pun was the head of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). A member of the mainstream faction, he later became the vice president of Nepal as part of the bargaining that led to a political power-sharing agreement. Likewise, see “Nepal: Interview With Comrade Baburam Bhattarai,” 12 December 2009, available at http://marxistleninist.wordpress.com/2009/12/12/baburam-bhattarai-on-nepals-social-revolution/#more-4155(accessed 1 June 2017), wherein Bhattarai (then the mainstream Maoist second figure) – while repeatedly lauding the Cultural Revolution, goes to the extent of responding to a radical questioner by responding, “Yes we think the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution was the pinnacle of revolution not only in the 20th century but in the whole history of the liberation of mankind. It is the pinnacle of the development of revolutionary ideas. So all the revolutionaries must make the Cultural Revolution their point of departure and develop the revolutionary idea and plan further.”

[6] Mallika Aryal, “Open Wounds,” Nepali Times, 5 February 2010; available at: http://nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16781#.VNtgLT8cRZs (accessed 1 June 2017).

[7] Benchmark work on this subject remains James C. Scott, “Revolution in the Revolution: Peasants and Commissars,” Theory and Society 7, no. 1 (March 1979), 97-134; available at (subscription): http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/657000.pdf?refreqid=excelsior%3A43cc17853504ec4790407c7554c7d454 (accessed 1 June 2017). Perhaps my own most cited contribution that deals explicitly with the subject is “Ideology of Insurgency: New Ethnic Focus or Old Cold War Distortions?” Small Wars and Insurgencies 15, no. 1 (Spring 2004), 107-28; available at (subscription):   http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09592310410001677014 (accessed 1 June 2017).

[8] Basics of the discussion may be accessed through Eitan Y. Alimi, Charles Demetriou, and Lorenzo Bosi, The Dynamics of Radicalization: A Relational and Comparative Perspective (NY: Oxford, 2015), supplemented by Clark McCauley and Sophia Moskalenko, Friction: How Radicalization Happens to Them and Us (NY: Oxford, 2011).

[9] A shortcoming of much recent work on political violence, particularly insurgency, is that it divorces the discussion from the fundamental reality that it is, first and foremost, political.  That is, when agreement on the distribution of rights, resources, privileges, and obligations cannot be reached elsewise, blows must decide. Any number of salient works make this point, but for our purposes premier treatment remains Douglas Pike, Viet Cong: The Organization and Techniques of the National Liberation Front of South Vietnam (Cambridge, MA: The M.I.T. Press, 1966), as well as his PAVN (Novato, CA: Presidio, 1986). My own early contribution to this discussion, which remains in print, is Maoist Insurgency Since Vietnam (London: Frank Cass, 1996); Nepal is added to the cases under discussion in my later Maoist People’s War in Post-Vietnam Asia (Bangkok: White Lotus, 2007).

[10] See e.g. Kathleen M. Blee, Women of the Klan: Racism and Gender in the 1920s (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1992).

[11]See e.g. Isabel Coral Cordero, “Women in War: Impact and Responses,” Ch. 10 (pp. 345-74) in Steve J. Stern, Shining and Other Paths: War and Society in Peru, 1980-1995 (Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 1998).  Starn himself provides succinct but useful introductory remarks to the chapter at pp. 341-44. Therein, he highlights Robin Kirk, Grabado en Piedra: Las Mujeres de Sendero Luminoso [Carved in Stone: The Women of Shining Path] (Lima: Instituto de Estudios Peruanos, 1993).  Omar García-Ponce has also pursued the subject in a number of works, to include “Women’s Political Participation in the Aftermath of Civil War: Evidence From Peru,” unpublished draft dated 25 October 2015; available at:  http://omargarciaponce.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/GarciaPonce_job_market_paper.pdf (accessed 1 June 2017).

[12] Neither should it be thought that this orientation is solely one of popular culture.  Its easily falsifiable nature notwithstanding, it also surfaces in more than a few academic works on gender. The phrase, of course, comes from the John Gray bestseller of the same title (NY: Harper Collins, 1992) dealing with (his) observed gender distinctions.

[13] By way of disclaimer, I entered the U.S. Army at but 17½ years of age and was first in the field at 19 (which resulted in a decoration).  I did not consider myself “radicalized” (or, for that matter, misled).

[14] Kiyoko Ogura, for instance, observes that about 20 percent of the Maoist combatants in the regroupment camps after the formal end of hostilities were women, which was “one of the highest levels of participation by women in conflict anywhere.” See her “A Chapamaar’s Peace,” HIMAL Southasian (July 2009); available at: http://old.himalmag.com/component/content/article/565-a-chapamaars-peace.html (accessed 14 June 2017).

[15] Having done extensive work on FARC, for instance, I know of no data that would support a 40 percent figure, albeit with the same qualification that particular time and place could produce a unit (of which I am unaware) that had reached such a gender distribution.

[16]Appropriate literature is voluminous, because there has long been investigation of the gendered facets of internal upheaval.  One thinks immediately of the excellent work done on the various revolutionary upsurges of the past: e.g. Sara E. Melzer and Leslie W. Rabine, Rebel Daughters: Women and the French Revolution (NY: Oxford UP, 1992); Dave Barry, Women and Political Insurgency: France in the Mid-Nineteenth Century (NY: St. Martin’s Press, 1996) Gay L. Gullickson, Unruly Women of Paris: Images of the Commune (Ithaca, NY: Cornell UP, 1996); Edith Thomas, The Women Incendiaries [Paris Commune], trans. James and Starr Atkinson (NY: George Braziller, 1966);   Richard Stites, The Women’s Liberation Movement in Russia: Feminism, Nihilism, and Bolshevism, 1860-1930 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton UP, 1978); Jane McDermid and Anna Hillyar, Midwives of the Revolution: Female Bolsheviks and Women Workers in 1917 (Athens, OH: Ohio UP, 1999); Barbara Evans Clements, Bolshevik Women (NY: Cambridge UP, 1997);and Wendy Adele-Marie Sarti, Women and Nazis: Perpetrators of Genocide and Other Crimes During Hitler’s Regime, 1933-1945 (Bethesda, MD: Academica Press, 2012). As evidenced by the publication dates, all of these appeared before 9-11 and the emergence of “terrorism” as the default term to describe their actions.  More traditional directions for analysis, relevant to the discussion in this article, are evident from the titles of a small selection of gendered considerations of irregular warfare: e.g. Sandra C. Taylor, Vietnamese Women at War: Fighting for Ho Chi Minh and the Revolution (Lawrence, KS: UP of Kansas, 1999); Karen Kampwirth, Women and Guerrilla Movements: Nicaragua, El Salvador, Chiapas, Cuba (University Park: The Pennsylvania State UP, 2002); Tanya Lyons, Guns and Guerilla Girls: Women in the Zimbabwean Liberation Struggle (Asmara, Eritrea: Africa World Press, 2004); Vina A. Lanzona, Amazons of the Huk Rebellion: Gender, Sex, and Revolution in the Philippines (Madison, WI: The University of Wisconsin Press, 2009); Lisa Lines, Milicianas: Women in Combat in the Spanish Civil War (Lanham, MA: Lexington Books, 2012); and Jelena Batinić, Women and Yugoslav Partisans: A History of World War II Resistance (NY: Cambridge UP, 2015).  Illustrative of the current era are: e.g. Rosemarie Skaine, Female Suicide Bombers (Jefferson, NC: McFarland, 2006); Mia Bloom, Bombshell: Women and Terrorism (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2011); and Tanya Narozhna and W. Andy Knight, Female Suicide Bombers: A Critical Gender Approach (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2016).One hastens to add that none of the “suicide bomber” treatments cited here are reductive, demonstrating throughout awareness of the terminological and analytical issues in play.  Indeed, this is the hallmark of much recent work, even as publishers and popular treatments often push for sensation; very useful are: Caroline O.N. Moser and Fiona C. Clark, Victims, Perpetrators or Actors? Gender, Armed Conflict and Political Violence (NY: Zed Press, 2001); Laura Sjoberg and Caron E. Gentry, Mothers, Monsters, Whores: Women’s Violence in Global Politics (NY: Zed Press, 2007), and their later Beyond Mothers, Monsters, Whores: Thinking About Women’s Violence in Global Politics (NY: Zed Press, 2015); Cindy D. Ness, ed., Female Terrorism and Militancy: Agency, Utility, and Organization (NY: Routledge, 2008); R. Kim Cragin and Sara A. Daly, Women as Terrorists: Mothers, Recruiters, and Martyrs (Denver, CO: Praeger, 2009); Seema Shekhawat, ed., Female Combatants in Conflict and Peace: Challenging Gender in Violence and Post-Conflict Reintegration (NY: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015); and Jessica Davis, Women in Modern Terrorism: From Liberation Wars to Global Jihad and the Islamic State (Boulder, CO: Rowman and Littlefield, 2017).

[17]Thorough discussion of the genesis of this voluntarism is Benoît Cailmail, A History of Nepalese Maoism Since its Foundation by Mohan Bikram Singh, European Bulletin of Himalayan Research 33-34 (2008-2009), 11-38; available at: http://himalaya.socanth.cam.ac.uk/collections/journals/ebhr/pdf/EBHR_33%2634_02.pdf (accessed 13 June 2017).

[18] Shining Path’s example was central in the debate on the timing for launching the people’s war and the strategy to be followed, as related in a 22 August 2016 interview (with author) by Mr. Shobhakar Acharya,a lifelong Party member and editor of the Maoist weekly newspaper, Jama Uphar, in 1999-2000. The Nepali Maoists continue to proclaim solidarity with Shining Path and would, under proper circumstances, not hesitate to reprise their December 2010 sponsoring of the son of imprisoned Shining Path leader, Abimael Guzman, as the guest of honor at the Party’s youth organization’s 18th National Convention (held in Kathmandu).

[19] A contending view would be that of Yami herself; see her “Women’s Leadership and the Revolution in Nepal,” Monthly Review, 21 February 2003; available at: https://monthlyreview.org/commentary/womens-leadership-and-the-revolution-in-nepal/ (accessed 1 June 2017).

[20] The essential concept is not unlike that of contradictions as utilized in Marxist analysis but embraces the three systems of social stratification integral to Weberian analysis, adding status and political to economic, thus greatly enhancing analytical relevance – particularly with respect to a concept such as gender.  Seminal works on cleavage remain those of the late Stein Rokkan: Citizens, Elections, Parties: Approaches to the Comparative Study of the Processes of Development (Oslo: Universitetsforlaget, 1970), and State-Formation, Nation-Building, and Mass Politics in Europe: The Theory of Stein Rokkan, Based on his Collected Works, ed. Peter Flora with Stein Kuhnle and Derek Urwin (NY: Oxford, 1999). Also useful is Simon Bornschier, “Cleavage Politics in Old and New Democracies, Living Reviews in Democracy (2009), 1-3; available at:   https://www.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/gess/cis/cis-dam/CIS_DAM_2015/WorkingPapers/Living_Reviews_Democracy/Bornschier.pdf (accessed 1 June 2017), wherein the author emphasizes, crediting Bartolini and Deegan-Krause (p.2), the degree to which a cleavage is a “compounded divide” that is social-structural, an element of collective identity, and an organizational manifestation.  For the Marxian approach relevant here see the much-cited Mao Tse-tung, “On Contradiction” (August 1937), available, among numerous options, in Selected Readings From the Works of Mao Tse-tung (Beijing: Foreign Languages Press, 1967), 70-108; or:   https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/mao/selected-works/volume-1/mswv1_17.htm (accessed 1 June 2017). For a basic, introductory explanation of the more powerful Weberian approach, see Mark N. Hagopian, Regimes, Movements, and Ideologies, 2nd ed. (NY: Longman, 1984), 19-25.

[21]As per Collins, “The term intersectionality references the critical insight that race, class, gender, sexuality, ethnicity, nation, ability, and age operate not as unitary, mutually exclusive entities, but rather as reciprocally constructing phenomena.  Despite this general consensus, definitions of what counts as intersectionality are far from clear.”  From Abstract to Patricia Hill Collins, “Intersectionality’s Definitional Dilemmas,” Annual Review of Sociology 41, no. 1 (2015), 1-20; available at (subscription):  http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-soc-073014-112142? (accessed 1 June 2017).   Seminal thinking on the concept was work done by Kimberle Crenshaw; see e.g. “Mapping the Margins: Intersectionality, Identity Politics, and Violence Against Women of Color,” Stanford Law Review 43 (July 1991), 1241-99; available at:   http://socialdifference.columbia.edu/files/socialdiff/projects/Article__Mapping_the_Margins_by_Kimblere_Crenshaw.pdf (accessed 1 June 2017).

[22] Most comprehensive treatment of this societal reality in Nepal is Mandira Sharma and Seira Tamang, eds., A Difficult Transition: The Nepal Papers (New Delhi: Zubaan, 2016).  The introduction speaks to the general theme of the materials presented in the volume: Seira Tamang, “Contextualizing Nepal’s Permissive Environment for Sexual Violence and Impunity,” xxi-xxxvii.

[23] Armed left-wing impulse (in this case, Maoism) and violent radical Islamism should not be considered, as they often are, as mutually exclusive mobilization efforts.  The extent to which they mirror each other is superbly discussed by Charles Lindholm and José Pedro Zúquete, The Struggle for the World: Liberation Movements for the 21st Century (Stanford, CA: Stanford UP, 2010). The authors highlight the extent to which both are “aurora movements,” the latest in a struggle to build a future by vanquishing the past.

[24]This attack, upon a city of 43,000, signaled the Maoist shift to the “strategic offensive.”  The first attack upon a district capital had been on 24 September 2000 against Dunai, Dolpa), but that and similar actions had avoided directly assaulting the army.  This changed with the Ghorahi action.  For attack details, see Pasang, op.cit, 112-23.  In addition to establishing the vulnerability of the military and bringing it into the conflict, substantial quantities of advanced weaponry and munitions were captured (requiring a dozen trucks to remove), together with NPR 50 million in cash (USD 660,000 at the time).

[25] Every political system is comprised of a structure that either speaks to and facilitates individual and group opportunity – or does not.  For democratic systems, legitimacy is essential; for authoritarian systems, power is central.  Intellectuals consume themselves endeavoring to theorize on and demonstrate the extent to which democracy exists through mystification and building an intangible structure of false consciousness.  Gramsci remains a particular favorite of this genre, and he offers a great deal that is useful; but the vulgar Marxism that holds individuals are incapable of exercising agency due to systemic entrapment founders whenever adequate safeguards are in place to allow the exercise of free will (e.g., secret ballots, a free press, the rule of law).  Benchmark original work on the political opportunity structure is Peter K. Eisinger, “The Conditions of Protest Behavior in American Cities,” The American Political Science Review 67, no. 1 (March 1973), 11-28; available at (subscription): http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1958525.pdf?refreqid=excelsior:24750156a2de852b089b3daff48d82a6 (accessed 2 June 2017).  For a useful illustration of the dynamic at work (as well as the playing out of cleavages, contradictions and even intersectionality), see Gregory D. Squires and Chais E. Kubrin, Privileged Places: Race, Residence, and the Structure of Opportunity (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2006). For Gramsci, see especially Quintin Hoare and Geoffrey Nowell Smith, eds., Selections From the Prison Notebooks (NY: International, 1989 ed.); available as an e-book at: http://courses.justice.eku.edu/PLS330_Louis/docs/gramsci-prison-notebooks-vol1.pdf (accessed 2 June 2017).  For further discussion see especially two works by Kate Crehan:  Gramsci, Culture and Anthropology (Berkeley: UC Press, 2002), and Gramsci’s Common Sense: Inequality and its Narratives (Durham, NC: Duke UP, 2016).

[26] See Marks, “Ideology of Insurgency.”  This point is best explored through the numerous local studies which exist for significant irregular conflicts.  Cases span the gamut from the American Revolution to the Vietnam War and now Iraq and Afghanistan.  For the latter, see a recent fascinating contribution exploring the anti-insurgent side: Matthew P. Dearing, “A Double-Edged Sword: The People’s Uprising in Ghanzi, Afghanistan,” Small Wars and Insurgencies 28, no. 3 (June 2017), 576-608.

[27] In the post-Cold War context, the emergence of new sources of funding produced new motivations for alienation from existing political opportunity structures.  Exploration of this phenomenon was logical but quickly degenerated as all forms of armed irregular activity were conflated, often termed insurgency or even terrorism.  This lumped together dissimilar activities, not least the criminal and the political.  Criminality is always present tactically in the funding profile of an insurgent group, but a criminal group which tactically adopts certain insurgent methods does not thus become “a criminal insurgency,” as seductive as the term is in the fierce market for theoretical recognition and scholarly branding.  The so-called “terror-crime nexus” is real at the tactical and even operational level but not beyond.  Insurgency is a strategic category as is crime and must be so-treated in analysis.  For one of the earliest treatments of new motivations for “rebellion” in the present age of globalization, see Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, Greed and Grievance in Civil War, Policy Research Working Paper 2355 (Washington, DC: The World Bank, May 2000); available at: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/359271468739530199/pdf/multi-page.pdf (accessed 2 June 2017).The study speaks to “rebellion,” which becomes “civil war” when meeting a standard but erroneous statistical threshold (refer to n.2 above).  It is only too obvious how other scholars would just as erroneously throw into the same analytical stew “insurgency” and even “criminal insurgency.”

[28] This point is laid out directly by Mao in his “Some Questions Concerning Methods of Leadership” (1 June 1943); see Selected Readings From the Works, 234-39; available at: http://www.marx2mao.com/Mao/QCML43.html (accessed 1 June 2017). Ironic indeed is the near universal focus in the West upon Guerrilla Warfare, attributed to Mao but never published in his Selected Works during his lifetime and more likely the product of a collective (possibly even staff) effort. People’s war, as illustrated by “Some Questions…,” is anything but “guerrilla warfare,” as Mao himself said time and again.  It is armed politics, with violence the shaping mechanism necessary to open up political space, not as warfighting per se.

[29]All interviews were taped, which included permission to proceed. This permissions procedure emerged quickly when it became clear that interviewees were profoundly hesitant to sign anything but quite willing to orally give consent to be recorded and to have permission recorded.  Though they generally went by their alias names, to which they had grown accustomed during the conflict, only one declined to give her actual name.

[30] See e.g. D.B. Buda, “74% Women in Jumla Still Sent to Sheds During Menstruation,” Republica, 1 June 2017; available at:http://www.myrepublica.com/news/21037/ (accessed 2 June 2017).

[31] As noted previously, the best source on this subject remains A Difficult Transition(see n.22 above).

[32] The Maoists have essentially been given a pass as concerns this aspect of the conflict.  The topic of their widespread use of “child soldiers” has been little discussed and certainly not subject to the sort of legal interventions one associates with the various conflicts in Africa; it is approached in Children in the Ranks: The Maoists’ Use of Child Soldiers in Nepal (NY: Human Rights Watch, February 2007); available at: http://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/nepal0207webwcover.pdf (accessed 14 June 2017).

[33] See e.g. the comments of participants and observers noted by Kiyoko Ogura in her excellent “Realities and Images of Nepal’s Maoists After the Attack on Beni.” European Bulletin of Himalayan Research 27 (2004): 67-125; available at: http://himalaya.socanth.cam.ac.uk/collections/journals/ebhr/pdf/EBHR_27_04.pdf (accessed 14 June 2017).

[34] All combatant ages are as of September 2016. Nearly all interviewees were very young at the time of interview, a decade after the formal conclusion of hostilities, a reality highlighting their youth during the conflict.

[35] See Thomas A. Marks, “Enduring Dilemmas: Nepali Insurgency Redux,” Mantraya, Occasional Paper #02 in Mapping Terror and Insurgent Networks Project (28 January 2017); available at:  http://mantraya.org/enduring-dilemmas-nepali-insurgency-redux/; reprinted in Eurasia Review, 30 January 2017; available at:  http://www.eurasiareview.com/30012017-enduring-dilemmas-nepali-insurgency-redux-analysis/; reprinted in Review Nepal, 3 February 2017; available at:  http://reviewnepal.com/articles/enduring-dilemmas-nepali-insurgency-redux.html.

[36]Perhaps best conceptualized as a state of emergency arguably allowed by the constitution but no less controversial for that fact, particularly given its needless truncation of the very political activity essential to counter Maoist mobilization – which, to reiterate the point made above, focused upon violently neutralizing non-Maoist political activity in local space.

[37] The relevant wording from the resolutions of the November 2005 meeting states [translated from the Nepali]: “To extensively militarize the party, authority, party members, and people and attempt to configure, specialize, and training the People’s Liberation Army to take necessary action in cities, center, region, district, and capital [Kathmandu].”

[38] See e.g. Deepak Adhikari, “Female Nepali Ex-fighters Still Struggling 10 Years After War’s End,” DPA International, 22 December 2016; available at: http://www.dpa-international.com/topic/female-nepali-ex-fighters-still-struggling-10-years-war-end-161222-99-629131(accessed 14 June 2017); “Reintegration Challenges for Maoist Female Ex-combatants,” IRIN, 14 April 2010; available at:  http://www.irinnews.org/report/88806/nepal-reintegration-challenges-maoist-female-ex-combatants(accessed 14 June 2017).

New Flu Test: One Drop Of Blood Could Save Your Life

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A world first test to identify which influenza patients will need urgent, life-saving, medical treatment has been developed by Australian researchers.

The High-risk Influenza Screen Test (HIST) measures ‘an early warning signal’ released by the patient’s body into their blood to ‘kick start’ their immune system’s fight against the infection.

The test, developed by Dr Benjamin Tang — a doctor from the Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Nepean Hospital and medical researcher at Westmead Institute for Medical Research — needs only a single drop of blood and a few hours to predict, with 91 percent accuracy, which influenza patients will develop potentially deadly secondary infections, such as pneumonia.

Previously doctors could only test for influenza infection but didn’t know which patients would be at risk of rapid deterioration.

“Influenza can sometimes kill otherwise healthy people in the prime of their lives,” said Dr Tang.

“By using the High-risk Influenza Screen Test we’re eavesdropping on the immune system to pick up when the body first mounts a defence against a serious, life-threatening, infection. The early warning means we have a greater chance to treat the patient’s infection before it overwhelms them and potentially kills them,” said Dr Tang.

The research, published by Dr Tang and colleagues in the European Respiratory Journal, deciphered the genetic codes that immune cells release to warn the body of a serious infection, such as pneumonia, caused by the influenza virus.

HIST will be particularly useful during pandemics when there is a delay in developing vaccines for strains of the influenza virus.

“We can now test people during a pandemic, or outbreak of a new flu virus, to identify those who might be at greater risk of developing serious complications. The test works with any flu infection as it looks at how the body reacts rather than the strain or type of virus.”

Dr Tang said HIST could also be used to track the effectiveness of new drugs in clinical trials by accurately plotting the patient’s immune response.

The patented High-risk Influenza Screen Test runs on equipment already available in most pathology laboratories.

Feed The Hungry, Treat The Sick: A Crucial Training – OpEd

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On June 15, 2017, the New York Times reported that the government of Saudi Arabia aims to ease the concerns of some U.S. legislators over U.S. weapon sales to Saudi Arabia. The Saudis plan to engage in “a $750 million multiyear training program through the American military to help prevent the accidental killing of civilians in the Saudi-led air campaign against Houthi rebels in Yemen.” Since entering the war in Yemen, in March of 2015, the Saudi coalition’s airstrikes, with U.S. assistance, have destroyed bridges, roads, factories, farms, food trucks, animals, water infrastructure, and agricultural banks across the north, while imposing a blockade on the territory. For a country heavily dependent on foreign food aid, that means starving the people. At least seven million people suffer now from severe acute malnourishment.

U.S. assistance to the Saudi-led coalition has included providing weapons, sharing intelligence, targeting assistance, and aerial jet refueling.  “If they stop the refueling, that would stop the bombing campaign literally tomorrow,” says Iona Craig, who frequently reports from Yemen, “because logistically the coalition would not be able to send their fighter jets in to carry out sorties without that help.”

The U.S. has also provided “cover” for Saudi violations of international law. On October 27th, 2015, Saudi Arabia bombed a Yemeni hospital operated by Doctors Without Borders. The airstrike went on for two hours, reducing the hospital to rubble. Ban Ki Moon, then Secretary General of the UN, admonished the Saudi government for attacking a medical facility. The Saudis responded that the U.S. had similarly bombed a Doctors Without Borders hospital, in Afghanistan’s Kunduz province, which indeed the U.S. had, earlier that same month, on October 3, 2015. The U.S. airstrikes continued, in fifteen minute intervals, for an hour, killing 42 people and likewise reducing the Doctors Without Borders hospital to rubble and ash.

How would the U.S. military train the Saudis to prevent the accidental killing of civilians?  Would they teach Saudi pilots the military parlance used when U.S. drones hit an intended target: the pools of blood that sensors detect, in place of what was once a human body, are called “bugsplat.” If someone attempts to run from the site of the attack, that person is called a “squirter.” When the U.S. attacked the Yemeni village of Al Ghayyal, on January 29th, 2017, one Navy Seal, Chief Petty Officer Ryan Owen, was tragically killed. That same night, 10 Yemeni children under 13 years of age and six Yemeni women, including Fatim Saleh Mohsen, a 30 year-old mother, were killed. U.S. fired projectile missiles ripped apart Saleh’s home in the middle of the night. Terrified, she scooped up her infant and grabbed the hand of her son who was a toddler, deciding to run out of the house into the darkness. Was she considered a squirter? A U.S. missile killed her almost as soon as she fled. Will the U.S. train the Saudis to engage in U.S. exceptionalism, discounting the lives of alien others, giving priority, always, to so-called national security for the nation with the most weapons?

Over the past 7 years, I’ve noted a steady increase in U.S. surveillance of Afghanistan. Drones, tethered blimps, and complex aerial spying systems cost billions of dollars, apparently so that analysts can “better understand patterns of life in Afghanistan.” I think this is a euphemism. The U.S. military wants to better understand patterns of movement for its “High Value Targets” in order to assassinate them.

But my young friends in the Afghan Peace Volunteers, (APV), have shown me a life-giving kind of “surveillance.” They conduct surveys, reaching out to the neediest families in Kabul, trying to establish which families are most likely to be hungry because they have no means to acquire rice and cooking oil.  The APV then work out ways to employ widows to sew heavy blankets, or compensate families that agree to send their child laborers to school for half a day.

I told my young friends in Kabul about the dire straits Yemeni youngsters face. Now, along with conflict driven starvation, the nightmarish spread of cholera afflicts them. Save the Children has warned that the rate of cholera infection in Yemen has tripled over the past 14 days, with an average of 105 children contracting the disease every hour – or one every 35 seconds. “It’s too much for us to learn these statistics,” my young friends gently responded upon learning about the staggering numbers of Yemeni people who could die from starvation or disease. “Please,” they asked, “can you find someone we could get to know, person to person, through a skype conversation?” Two friends in Yemen said that even in the major cities, Yemenis are isolated in terms of international communication. After the APV learned that the conversation they envisioned might not be possible, a few days passed before I heard from them. Then a note arrived, saying that at the end of Ramadan, the month during which they’ve been fasting, they typically take up a collection to help share resources. They asked me to entrust their collection, meager though it might be, to two Yemeni human rights advocates in New York who are more or less marooned there. This Yemeni couple wonders when commercial flights to Sana’a, Yemen’s largest city, might resume. The APVs, who understand all too well what it means to face an uncertain, precarious future, want to alleviate hunger in Yemen.

They set an example of what could be done, – what should be done, rather than make hideous  preparations to target, maim, torture, starve and kill other people. We should, individually and collectively, do all that we can to prohibit U.S. supported Saudi-led coalition onslaughts against Yemeni civilians, encourage a silencing of all the guns, insist on lifting the blockade, and staunchly uphold humanitarian concerns.

Radio Astronomers Peer Deep Into Stellar Nursery Of Orion Nebula

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Astronomers have released an image of a vast filament of star-forming gas, 1200 light-years away, in the stellar nursery of the Orion Nebula.

The image shows ammonia molecules within a 50-light-year long filament detected through radio observations made with the Robert C. Byrd Green Bank Telescope in West Virginia. That image is combined with an image of the Orion Nebula–an object familiar to amateur and professional astronomers alike–taken with NASA’s Wide-field Infrared Survey Explore (WISE) telescope.

“We still don’t understand in detail how large clouds of gas in our Galaxy collapse to form new stars,” said Rachel Friesen, one of the collaboration’s co-Principal Investigators and, until 31 May 2017, a Dunlap Fellow at the Dunlap Institute for Astronomy & Astrophysics, University of Toronto.

“But ammonia is an excellent tracer of dense, star-forming gas,” said Friesen, “and these large ammonia maps will allow us to track the motions and temperature of the densest gas. This is critical to assessing whether gas clouds and filaments are stable, or are undergoing collapse on their way to forming new stars.”

The image accompanies the first release of results from the collaboration’s Green Bank Ammonia Survey (GAS), published in the Astrophysical Journal. The collaboration’s other co-Principal Investigator is Jaime Pineda, from the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics; the team also includes astronomers from the University of Toronto’s Department of Astronomy & Astrophysics and Canadian Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics.

The goal of GAS is to survey all the major, nearby star-forming regions in the northern half of the Gould Belt — a ring of young stars and gas clouds that circles the entire sky and runs through the constellation Orion. The survey will eventually provide a clearer picture over a larger portion of the sky of the temperatures and motions of gas within these dynamic stellar nurseries.

Notes:

1) The first GAS data release includes data from observations of four Gould Belt clouds: B18 in the constellation Taurus; NGC 1333 in Perseus; L1688 in Ophiuchus; and Orion A North in Orion.

2) The 100-metre Green Bank Telescope is located in the National Radio Quiet Zone, a 34 thousand square kilometre area in which radio transmissions are tightly restricted. The Green Bank Observatory (GBO) is a facility of the National Science Foundation operated under a cooperative agreement by Associated Universities, Inc.

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