Analysts of all political persuasions tend to assume that this or that group of the population is deeply attached to a particular ideology and that the future depends on whether groups will maintain or shift their attachment from one to another. But three articles in the Moscow media today suggest that view is at least partially incorrect.

More than that, they suggest that those political leaders who accept the primacy of ideology as an explanation for Russian behavior are failing to see what is really going on and often claim victory for themselves without understanding that they haven’t won one or yield to their opponents who see more clearly that other factors are at work.

The first of these three, by Moscow political scientist Vasily Zharkov, appeared in Novaya gazeta. He argues that Russian liberals have been paralyzed by their acceptance of the view that the people (the “narod”) are deeply attached to “red-brown” ideas and thus must be opposed rather than appealed to (novayagazeta.ru/articles/2017/07/24/73227-ne-boyatsya-sobstvennyh-grazhdan).

That liberal view, he continues, not only has kept them from challenging the regime’s tightening of the screws but from reaching out to the population and winning its support by speaking to what it is really concerned with. “The Russian voter,” Zharkov says, “believes not in political values but in personal well-being and personal guarantees.”

That voter cares only that he be paid and paid on time. “All ideas, liberal or conservative or whatever are meaningless when he hears the clear signal ‘you will be paid.’” As a result, the acceptance of much that the powers that be insist on has little or nothing to do with ideology, and if liberals were willing to offer something similar, they too would attract support.

The issue then is how can the liberals find “a common language” with the narod. “To begin with, they must cease to be afraid of their own citizens” because their fears are rooted in a misconception. And “they must begin to respect them as genuine democrats do.” If that happens, the liberals may find there are far more supporters for democratic change than they imagine.

The second article by commentator Dmitry Sidorov of the Lenta news agency makes a similar point about the significance or in fact insignificance of ideology in Russian political life by focusing on an entirely different subject: the current purge of Russian nationalists by the Kremlin (lenta.ru/articles/2017/07/24/ourboys/).

He argues that this effort to “cleanse” the Russian political scene of these figures and their media outlets has less to do with ideological differences – the usual explanation – than with something else entirely, the willingness even eagerness of such nationalists to form alliances with other political groups in the run-up to elections.

“Nationalists,” Sidorov writes, “are not the most influential group within the non-systemic opposition but they are persistent and ready for coalitions with others. They constantly try, although not always successfully, to conclude situational alliances with other forces,” and the Kremlin isn’t interested in the possibility that they might do so again.

At various points in the past, Russian nationalists more than liberals and reformers have reached out in an attempt to form alliances, often with groups that have very different ideological agendas. That flexibility on their part suggests that they are more interested in gaining power than in realizing all the points of their ideological program.

And the third article, by journalist Yekaterina Trifonova of Nezavisimaya gazeta, suggests that the civic activity of young people, something that many reformers have placed so much hope in, is far less stable than they imagine because participation in protests for many has more to do with fashion than commitment (ng.ru/politics/2017-07-24/1_7035_protests.html).

She cites research by Aleksey Kudrin’s Committee on Civic Initiatives to argue that many young Russians who recently have taken part in protest actions “in fact do not have a defined civic position.” They are far more “apolitical” in ideological terms than their elders. And taking part in demonstrations is simply a matter of “fashion.”

Such attitudes, she suggests, explain why the youthful protesters can be usually divided into three groups: the smallest are those who support a particular leader, a bit larger are those who are attracted by the subject of the protest, but the largest of all are those who come to watch or “to make selfies” and then get “many likes” in social media.

A number of Qatari websites and television channels were unblocked in Saudi Arabia Monday morning as the result of a technical glitch, according to a Reuters report citing a Saudi royal court adviser.

Numerous websites and other media outlets linked to Qatar have been blocked in Saudi Arabia and its allies in the ongoing Gulf crisis, including the popular network Al Jazeera and the website of Qatar Airways, the state’s carrier.

But on Monday morning there were reports in the Kingdom that the blocked BeIN sports channels were accessible. Al Jazeera, Doha News and Qatar Airways’ websites all reportedly remained blocked.

Saud al-Qahtani, an adviser to the new Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, tweeted that the unblocking was the result of a technical glitch and that the censorship would be quickly restored.

The unblocking of websites of the Qatari authorities was the result of a technical error and will be fixed within the next few hours.

Some sports fans in Saudi have expressed their anger at the blocking of the BeIN Sports channels, which are owned by the Al Jazeera Media Network. The UAE reportedly restored the sports channels last week after they had been blocked for more than a month.

Original source

The European Union said Monday that it will, following a decision by Federica Mogherini, the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the European Commission, open a Delegation to Mongolia.

With its new Delegation in Ulaanbaatar, the EU will have a total of 140 Delegations around the world.

According to President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker , “The European Union is delivering on a promise to open a fully-fledged delegation in Mongolia – a democratic country strategically located between China and Russia and an important partner for us. I have visited Mongolia three times, the first in 1998 and most recently in 2016. The wonderful progress of this country and its development deserves our warmest congratulations, and certainly merits a full-time European Union presence.”

The High Representative/Vice-President, Federica Mogherini said: “Mongolia has an important role in a complex region, with a unique geostrategic position. This Delegation represents an investment for the European Union in view of strengthening our relationship with Mongolia, and a commitment to the people of the country. Soon we will also conclude* our new Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, which is a further demonstration of the importance we place on developing our close ties.”

The decision by the High Representative/Vice President follows the agreement of the Commission and the Council of the European Union and will be implemented in the course of 2017.

“The decision to open a Delegation in Ulaanbaatar underscores the significant progress that has been made in developing EU-Mongolia relations. The establishment of an EU Delegation in Ulaanbaatar will allow both sides to step up their political dialogue and cooperation and will pave the way for the further strengthening of the partnership,” the EU said in a statement.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt on Tuesday added 9 entities and 9 individuals to their list of terrorist groups, which they said have direct or indirect ties with Qatari authorities.

In a statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), the four countries collectively known as the Anti-Terror Quartet (ATQ), said that the three Qatari individuals and the lone Kuwaiti in its additional list have engaged in fund-raising campaigns to support Al-Nusra Front and other terrorist militias in Syria.

The list also included three Yemeni individuals and three organizations in Yemen that have allegedly provided support to Al- Qaeda, and have conducted actions on the terror network’s behalf, mainly by using significant funding from Qatari charities designated by the four states as terrorist entities.

It said “the two Libyan individuals and the six entities affiliated with terrorist groups in Libya have received substantial financial support from the Qatari authorities and played an active role in spreading chaos and devastation in Libya, despite serious international concern over the destructive impact of such practices.”

The four allies broke diplomatic relations with Qatar in early June largely over their allegations that it supports terrorist and extremist groups — a charge Qatar rejects.

On June 8, 2017, the Anti-Terror Quartet released a long list of 59 individuals and 12 Qatari-affiliated entities described as “terrorist supporters.”

The quartet initially made 13 demands, and which Qatar dismissed. Last week, the group urged Qatar to commit to six principles on combatting extremism and terrorism and negotiate a plan with specific measures to implement them — a step that could pave the way for an early resolution of the crisis.

Qatar also dismissed the demand, insisting on its innocence and saying it would not accept dictates that would insult its sovereignty as a nation.

Not enough

“While noting that the Qatari authorities had previously signed a memorandum of understanding with the United States to stop terror financing and then announced that it was amending its terror combating laws, the four states consider this step, even if it is a submission to the tough demands to combat terrorism and one of many awaited steps to achieve the Qatari authorities’ return to the right track, not enough,” said the report.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson recently concluded several days of shuttle diplomacy and sealed a deal to intensify Qatar’s counterterrorism efforts. The memorandum of understanding signed by the US and Qatar lays out steps Qatar can take to bolster its fight against terrorism and address shortfalls in policing terrorism funding.

Despite Qatar’s 2004 law against terrorism, the quarter said, “these individuals and groups have expanded their presence and activity in and through Doha.”

It said Qatar has a “long history in breaking all signed and binding agreements and legal obligations, the latest of which was the 2013 Riyadh Agreement and the 2014 Supplemental Agreement. Moreover, it continued harboring terrorists, financing attacks and promoting hate speech and extremism,” it said.

The quartet said it is awaiting urgent action by the Qatari authorities to make legal and practical actions to prosecute terrorist and extremist individuals and entities o as to confirm the credibility of its seriousness in renouncing terrorism and extremism, and its engagement in the international community fighting terrorism.”

By S. Binodkumar Singh*

On July 16, 2017, four terrorists of the Neo-Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (Neo-JMB) surrendered 12 hours after Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) personnel cordoned off a tin-shed dwelling in Ashulia, a suburban area near the capital, Dhaka. The four arrested were Mozammel Huq, Rashedul Nabi, Ifranul Islam and Alamgir Hossain. Two pistols, a laptop, and some books and pamphlets were recovered from the house.

On July 12, 2017, Police arrested three Neo-JMB terrorists in Chapainawabganj District: Abdul Malek aka Alam (46), Al Amin aka Lutu (25) and Mohammad Mithun (25). 19 kilograms of explosive materials were recovered from them.

On July 7, 2017, the Counter-Terrorism and Transnational Crime (CTTC) unit of Dhaka Metropolitan Police arrested Hatkata Mahfuz, one of the planners of the Holey Artisan attack , and also the top explosives specialist of Neo-JMB, along with three accomplices, from an orchard in the Kansat area of Chapainawabganj District.

On July 5, 2017, RAB personnel arrested three JMB terrorists from a house in the Master Bari area of Gazipur District while they were planning to carry out terrorist activities. RAB officials disclosed that there were allegations of their involvement in the 2005 serial bomb blasts.

On July 1, 2017, the CTTC unit of the Dhaka Metropolitan Police arrested three female Neo-JMB terrorists, including Tithi Khatun (32), wife of Neo-JMB ‘chief’ Ayub Bachchu; Sumaiya Akter (26), wife of the outfit’s ‘second-in-command’ Abzar; and Toly Khatun, wife of JMB terrorist Arman Ali, after raiding a hideout in Kushtia District’s Bheramara area. The hideout was neutralized in a drive codenamed “Tepid Punch”, targeting safe havens of top leaders, including the Ameer (Chief) and Shura (Committee) members of the banned terrorist outfit. Police also recovered a bomb weighing around three kilograms, two suicide vests, 10 small bombs, a pistol, 12 bullets and 10 kilograms of bomb-making materials, in the raid.

On June 12, 2017, the CTTC unit of the Dhaka Metropolitan Police arrested six Neo-JMB terrorists in the New Market area of Dhaka city. The group was planning to carry out attacks during Ramadan to mark the anniversary of the deadly Gulshan Cafe attack..

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), since the Gulshan Cafe attack on July 1, 2016, 1,197 Islamist terrorists have been arrested and another 93 killed across Bangladesh. Prominent among those killed were the Neo-JMB leader and mastermind of the Gulshan Cafe attack, Tamim Ahmed Chowdhury aka Shaykh Abu Ibrahim Al Hanif aka Amir (30); the JMB ‘military commander’ for the northern region Khaled Hasan aka Badar Mama (30); Neo-JMB ‘military commander’ Murad aka Jahangir Alam aka Omar; JMB ‘regional commander’ Tulu Mollah (33); JMB ‘regional coordinator’ Abu Musa aka Abujar; Neo-JMB ‘military chief’ Aminur Islam aka Alam (23); Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B) ‘chief’ Mufti Abdul Hannan; and HUJI-B ‘regional commander’ Tajul Islam Mahmud aka Mama Hujur (46) (data till July 23, 2017).

To continue the relentless action against the terrorist formations, Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal told Parliament on June 30, 2017, the Government has decided to create 50,000 additional posts with the Bangladesh Police. The Home Minister added further, “There is no alternative to ensuring people-friendly Police forces to develop law and order throughout the country. Industrial police, naval police, tourism police, Special Security and Protection Battalion (SBPN), Police Bureau of Investigation (PBI), were added to the organizational structure of Bangladesh Police.”

Earlier, at a meeting chaired by Finance Minister AMA Muhith at the Secretariat on June 18, 2017, to stop terror suspects from getting bail and to make stronger prosecution to fight terrorism, a 16-member taskforce – the National Coordination Committee on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating Financing of Terrorism – under the Finance Ministry asked the Government to introduce a permanent Attorney service to engage competent lawyers. The taskforce is tasked with overseeing the Government’s initiatives to prevent terror financing and money laundering. Raising concerns over the release of a number of terrorist suspects on bail in recent times due to weaknesses of the prosecution, several officials who attended the meeting asserted that, when a suspected terrorist gets bail, it is the prosecutors’ duty to inform the Attorney General’s Office about this, but they failed to do so in most cases. Disturbingly, The Daily Star, the largest circulating daily English-language newspaper in Bangladesh, reported on June 20, 2017, that around 150 suspected terrorists secured bail over the preceding six months, mainly because the prosecutors failed to build up strong cases due to their lack of competence and efficiency.

Significantly, on July 19, 2017, after detecting unusual transactions, the Bangladesh Financial Intelligence Unit (BFIU) brought the overall activities of 17 foreign non-government development organizations (NGOs) under intense surveillance. Officials disclosed that most of these NGOs were under the control of or affiliated with Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and were based in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and other Middle East countries. Major NGOs of the list, which include Bangladesh Krishi Kalyan Samity, Muslim Aid Bangladesh, Rabeta Al-Alam al-Islami, Qatar Charitable Society, Islamic Relief Agency, Al-Furkan Foundation, Kuwait Joint Relief Committee, International Islamic Relief Organization, Hayatul Ighachha, Revival of Islamic Heritage Society, Tawhidi Noor and Al-Muntada al-Islami.

Claiming that terrorists no longer possessed the capacities to carry out attacks like the one at Gulshan Café, as their ‘backbones had been broken’ during anti-terrorist drives across the country, Monirul Islam, the CTTC chief, noted, on June 30, 2017, “They may try to get reorganized again but we’ll hunt down the absconding terrorists, too. So far, eight terrorists who were involved in planning and coordination in the (Gulshan Café) attack have already been killed in different places across the country during anti-terrorist operations in the last one year.” Similarly, Inspector General of Police (IGP) AKM Shahidul Hoque talking to reporters at Police Headquarters on July 2, 2017, noted, “We do not think the terrorists have the strength. Those who are on the run will be captured, no matter how big a leader they are. We are expecting the top absconding Neo-JMB leader to be arrested soon.”

Observing that Bangladesh has set an example for the world with its success in curbing terrorism and extremism, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed stated, on July 5, 2017, “Law enforcement agencies and the Armed Forces together with a cross-section of people have made this possible, and this trend should continue so that terrorists get no place of terrorism and militancy on Bangladesh soil.” Earlier, urging the country’s Muslim population to come forward to check the spread of extremism with a rational approach, Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal noted, on June 10, 2017, “At first, a vested quarter carried out extremist activities in the country, and propagated that Qoumi madrassah students are the perpetrators. Later, the quarter targeted the students of universities and English medium schools, and used them to spread extremism across the country, misguiding their young minds. This vested quarter is trying to defame both the country and its Muslim population. You have to come forward to solve your own problem. There’s no scope of ignoring this issue. You have to preach the Islam and its holy messages truthfully.’’

Worryingly, however, on July 9, 2017, bomb experts noted that the deadly explosive Triacetone Triperoxide (TATP), used by terrorists in Paris, Brussels and London attacks, had, of late become Neo-JMB’s explosive of choice in Bangladesh. The experts claimed that they had found evidence of its use in terrorist dens in Rajshahi, Jhenidah and Moulvibazar Districts. Traces of the easy-to-make TATP, known as “the mother of Satan”, was found in surgical belts terrorists use these days instead of suicide belts, and in other bombs. An official of the CTTC bomb disposal team noted, “Only 300 grams of TATP can kill everyone in a 10-meter radius.” Revealing another trend, on July 19, 2017, CTTC unit Deputy Police Commissioner Abdul Mannan disclosed, “Terrorists have begun using encryption to foil efforts by law enforcement to understand their plans. They regularly change the coding language that they use. They use them to encrypt messages sent across messaging apps. We have been able to decipher some of their messages after interrogating captured terrorists.”

Bangladesh has taken giant strides against terrorism and Islamist extremism. Recent proposal to establish a permanent Attorney service with competent lawyers to fight terrorism is a welcome development. However, the recovery of new weapons, explosives and resources during recent raids suggest that flows of material aid to these groups remains significant. Moreover, the continuous involvement of women as combatants has grave implications and potential for the abrupt augmentation of the threat. Bangladesh’s struggle against Islamist extremism and terrorism is far from over and the latent threat persists.

* S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

By Giriraj Bhattacharjee*

On July 17, 2017, four civilians and one Assam Rifles (AR) trooper were injured when a powerful Improvised Explosive Device (IED) exploded at Khurai Ahongei in Imphal East District.

On July 10, 2017, a civilian, identified as Ranjan Das (42), was shot dead by United Tribal Liberation Army (UTLA) militants at his residence at Chhata Bekra village in Jiribam District situated near the Assam-Manipur interstate boundary. UTLA later alleged that the person as an AR ‘informer’.

On the same day, one Army trooper, identified as Moirangthem Herachandra Singh (37), was found dead at Nachou Kwak Siphai area in Bishnupur District. According to reports, unidentified militants had killed the trooper and dumped his body in a canal.

On June 30, 2017, an AR trooper was killed and another two were injured in an IED explosion at Lambui village in Ukhrul District.

On June 15, 2017, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) militants exploded an IED killing an AR trooper and injuring three in the Chassad area of Ukhrul District.

According to South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Manipur has recorded at least 35 insurgency-linked fatalities, including 16 civilians, six Security Force (SF) personnel, and 13 militants, in the current year so far (data till July 23, 2017). During the corresponding period of 2016, the State had registered 23 such fatalities, including nine civilians, eight SF personnel and six militants.

Worryingly, fatalities in the first six months and 23 days of the current year have already crossed the total fatalities recorded through 2016, at 33 – the lowest since 1992. Worse, civilian fatalities – one of the most vital indicators of the security situation in a region – after registering continuous and significant declines since 2008, began to rise in the current year. According to the SATP database, civilian fatalities stood at 150 in 2007; declined to 131 in 2008; 77 in 2009; 26 in 2010; 25 each in 2011 and 2012; 21 in 2013; 20 in 2014; 17 in 2015; and 14 in 2016. 2017 has already recorded 16 civilian fatalities.

Moreover, the State has registered 14 attacks on SFs by militants, resulting in six fatalities and 14 injured among the SFs in the current year; as compared to eight such attacks and eight fatalities and 12 injured during the corresponding period of 2016. On the other hand, SFs have managed to eliminate only two militants out of the 13 militants killed so far in the current year, as compared to three out of six killed in the corresponding period of 2016. The remaining 11 militants in 2017 and three in 2016 were either killed in internecine clashes or were eliminated by their parent groups.

The total number of incidents of killing also increased from 16 in 2016 to 28 in 2017 (data till July 23, for both years). However, no major incident (involving three or more fatalities) has been reported in the current year, thus far, as compared to two during the corresponding period of 2016. Further, in 2017, fatalities were reported from nine out of a total of 16 districts in Manipur. These included Tegnoupal (six fatalities), Kamjong (four), Ukhrul (five), Kangpokpi (five), Noney (four), Churachandpur (three), all of which are Hill Districts; Imphal West (two fatalities), Bishnupur and Jiribam (one) each, among Valley Districts. The place of killing in the remaining four fatalities could not be ascertained. During the corresponding period of 2016, fatalities were reported from eight out of a total of nine districts in Manipur. These included Chandel (seven fatalities), Ukhrul (two), Senapati (two), Tamenglong (two), Churachandpur (one), all of which are Hill Districts; Imphal East (four), Thoubal (three) and Imphal West (two), among Valley Districts. On December 8, 2016, the number of districts in Manipur was increased from existing nine to 16 Districts.

Extortion remains an issue of concern. Significantly, on June 18, 2017, the Kangpokpi Women’s Welfare Organization held a ‘Toumun Kiphin’ (sit-in-protest) at the Kangpokpi District headquarters, holding placards which read “Stop Extortion, Live and Let Live”. The reason for the protest was that a banned outfit (name not disclosed) has served monetary demands to Forest and Power departments, some individuals, highway maintenance agencies and shop vendors. The monetary demand ranged from INR two million each to the Forest and Power department to INR 1,500 to 4,000 for shop vendors. An unnamed businessman told the media: “Militants are threatening us all the time. We can’t live in peace. We are hiding most of the time. We are suffering immensely at their hands. Living a normal life is difficult for us.” There were a total of three reported incidents of extortion. Further, the abduction of 22 persons (in 12 incidents) had also been reported in the current year, till July 23. However, actual incidence of both extortion and abduction is likely to be very much higher, as an overwhelming proportion of cases are settled without being reported.

The surge in insurgency-linked violence in the current year is in spite of the fact that a total of 23 insurgent groups under two conglomerates are currently under Suspension of Operation (SoO) agreements with the Government: eight under the United Progressive Front (UPF) and 15 under the Kuki National Organisation (KNO). The SoO agreement with KNO exists since August 2008 and was valid upto July 21, 2017 [no further updates available]; while the SoO agreement with UPF was valid up to June 8, 2017 [no further updates available]. Political dialogue with these groups commenced on June 15, 2016.

This raises question over the implementation part of the SoOs. News reports indicate that the newly elected Manipur Government raised the issue of SoO violations with Union Government on June 12, 2017. An unnamed source close to Manipur Chief Minister (CM) N. Biren Singh informed the media, “The Chief Minister will raise the issue of ground rules violations by the cadres of militant groups that have tripartite Suspension of Operation agreement with the State and the Centre.”

Moreover, militant groups such as the Coordination Committee (CorCom) of six Imphal Valley-based groups, the Manipur Naga Revolutionary Front (MNRF), the Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF), besides the Nagaland-based Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM) and the Khaplang faction of NSCN (NSCN-K), continue to operate in Manipur. CorCom comprises the Revolutionary People’s Front (RPF, the political wing of the People’s Liberation Army, PLA), United National Liberation Front (UNLF), People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), Kanglei Yowel Kanna Lup (KYKL), Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP) and the progressive faction of PREPAK (PREPAK-Pro). CorCom supports the Myanmar based militant conglomerate, the United National Liberation Front of West East South Asia (UNLFWESA) .

SFs had undeniably done remarkably well to restore relative order in Manipur in recent years, providing a more secure environment for the civilian population. The recent surge, though not alarming, is nevertheless worrying, more so in the present context. Manipur Chief Minister N. Biren Singh observed, on May 23, 2017, “The series of violent incidents in Moreh may be related with an intentional attempt to sabotage the Act East Policy.” Significantly, so far, at least five violent incidents have been reported from Moreh in Tegnoupal District in 2017, in which one civilian was killed and another three persons (all SF personnel) were injured. A ‘sanitized’ Asian Highway No. 01 (AH01), that will start from Moreh in Manipur and terminate at Maesot in Thailand, is intended to provide the necessary physical connectivity for fulfilling India’s ‘Act East’ (earlier, ‘Look East’) Policy, enhancing trade links with South East Asia.

As the Government continues efforts to further strengthen and improve its security apparatus, it is vital to ensure that the ground rules for the militants in talks with the state should be strictly enforced in toto. Robust law and order is the principle prerequisite for the development of the landlocked State, and will be the lynchpin on which the success of the Act East Policy hinges.

* Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

By Yossi Mekelberg*

It is hard to escape this strong feeling that US President Donald Trump has a long list of his predecessor’s policies and achievements that he is on a mission to undo. As months have gone by since Trump’s inauguration, one might have thought he would spare neighboring Cuba from this cull of Barack Obama’s policies. After all, Cubans have suffered enough from harsh and inexcusable US sanctions, imposed in 1960 and tightened over the years.

But last month, Trump announced that he was “canceling the last administration’s completely one-sided deal with Cuba.” At an event in Miami’s Little Havana, in a room packed with members of the Cuban community, and standing next to Sen. Marco Rubio and Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart — both Republicans who represent many Cuban-American voters — Trump unleashed a verbal onslaught toward Cuba.

Rubio and Diaz-Balart are known to be the architects of this change, lobbying for firm measures against Havana that would resemble those preceding the thaw in relations that started nearly three years ago. Trump left the impression of annulling a process of normalization between the two countries, which resumed diplomatic ties in July 2015.

A closer look reveals that in the hype of chastizing Cuba’s government and its President Raul Castro, measures taken are more likely to harm the nascent market-style economy than the intended official bodies.

Reverting to restrictions on tourism, trade and financial services has less to do with a genuine attempt to improve human rights and democracy on the island, and more to do with paybacks to the Cuban-American constituency, which was promised more punitive policies toward Havana in return for its support.

Cuba has always had unique, perilous ties with its northern neighbor. Long before the Castros led the 1959 revolution, Cuba was treated as an extension of the US that had to behave in full alignment with the interests and will of its more powerful neighbor. The history of bilateral relations experienced US invasion, occupation and imposition of laws. Past American presidents even offered to buy the island.

To this day, the US occupies Guantanamo Bay, where for years it has held terrorism suspects without trial. Cuba’s human rights record is less than satisfactory, especially regarding the treatment of dissidents or political prisoners and freedom of speech. But Cubans would rightly say human rights and democracy are just an excuse to bring down the government.

The new measures are a hotchpotch of the old punitive steps without, for instance, severing diplomatic ties or prohibiting visits by US citizens or direct flights that have just recently been introduced. As repeatedly witnessed in the past, these measures hit mainly ordinary Cubans and those with small enterprises.

Returning to permitting group travel via agencies, while prohibiting individuals from traveling independently, is bound to hurt private restaurants, tour guides and bed-and-breakfast rentals. Bigger businesses with closer links to the government are more likely to go unscathed.

Trump was very cautious not to harm the opportunities for bigger US businesses from investing. It is not only that the basic suppositions of his policies are unsound, but that the measures are inconsistent with the aim of weakening the Communist Party and the military.

The timing of the decision is most unfortunate, as the succession to Castro is on everyone’s mind, though very few will talk about it openly in Cuba. Castro said he will stand down in 2018. This would bring to a close nearly six decades of the Castros in power. Trump’s announcement of his new policy at this juncture can only negatively intervene in the process and strengthen the hands of those with strong anti-American sentiments.

It evokes the pain and misery inflicted by the US in its efforts to bring down Cuba’s government via economic strangulation, subversion and invasion. It did not achieve the desired results, and so failed as a policy.

Causing pain and misery through poverty to millions of Cubans is just not right. One could hardly find justification for it even during the Cold War. In its aftermath, it aims primarily to serve domestic US politics by gaining the Cuban vote, especially in the state of Florida. The gradual opening that started between the countries under the previous administration could potentially bring about constructive influence on changes in Cuba.

• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations at Regent’s University London, where he is head of the International Relations and Social Sciences Program. He is also an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media.

By Alan Barber*

At the national level, there was an increase in the total number of blue collar jobs in June. Construction gained 15,000 jobs while mining and logging added 8,000 jobs. Manufacturing, though still seeing positive gains, only added 1,000 jobs.

In construction, Rust belt states actually lost 5,700 jobs, down 0.4 percent. Over the past three months the construction jobs in these states have fallen by 0.1 percent.

Ohio gained 900 construction jobs while Iowa and West Virginia each added 700 jobs. All other rust belt states saw negative job growth in the sector last month. Illinois lost 1000 jobs while Wisconsin saw a falloff of 2,700 jobs and Michigan lost 2,800. Michigan and Wisconsin have also fared the worst among Rust Belt states over the last three month with falls in construction jobs of 0.7 percent and 1.0 percent respectively.

In manufacturing, Rust Belt states again diverged from the national trend with 5,700 fewer jobs in June than in May. Over the past three months, job losses in manufactured have averaged -0.4 percent compared to -0.1 percent in the previous three months.

In terms of individual Rust Belt states, West Virginia saw the greatest gains with the total number of manufacturing jobs increasing by 2.3 percent (an increase of 700 jobs). The next biggest gainer was Iowa, at 0.89 percent ( 700 jobs) and Ohio at 0.4 percent or 900 jobs. All other Rust Belt states lost jobs. The largest losses were in Wisconsin at -2.36 percent or 2,700 jobs followed by Michigan (-1.71 or 2,800 jobs), and Indiana (-0.7 percent or 900 fewer jobs in June). Looking at manufacturing over the past there months, Wisconsin has averaged job losses of -1.0 percent each month followed by Michigan (-0.7) and Pennsylvania (-0.3 percent).

Pennsylvania continues to be the leading job loser in manufacturing since President Trump took office, with a loss of 8,300 jobs since January, or 1.5 percent of the manufacturing jobs in the state. Ohio comes in second with a loss of 5,400 jobs, 0.8 percent of total employment.

On the plus side, Illinois comes in first among rust belt states with an increase of 6,500 jobs, or 1.1 percent of total manufacturing employment since January. In percentage terms, Iowa comes in slightly better, adding 3,300 jobs, which comes to 1.6 percent of manufacturing employment in the state. Wisconsin and Minnesota also have had modest gains in manufacturing employment since President Trump took office.

As noted earlier, mining and logging added 8,000 altogether. Much of the growth in the sector came from jobs in support activities for mining (6,900). It is worth noting that the total number of coal mining jobs nationwide was flat in May. The sector has added 800 jobs since January. Of these, only 360 were production and nonsupervisory jobs.

There was a jump of 1,200 jobs in the larger category of mining and logging in West Virginia last month. This is an increase of 5.8 percent in total employment in the sector. Since job distribution is not broken down more finely, it is not clear how many of these new jobs are in coal mining. Neighboring Kentucky lost 100 jobs in coal mining, with employment in the state now standing at 5,700 — 200 fewer than when President Trump took office.

The overall blue collar employment picture in the rust belt states strayed from national trends. In particular, both construction and manufacturing have been losing jobs in rust belt states, even as the national figures show modest growth.

Going forward, there appears to be modest growth nationally in the mining sector, although not in coal. This growth does not appear to be benefiting the rust belt states. Construction employment has slowed after rapid weather-related growth in the winter. In recent months the rust-belt states do not appear to be sharing in even this modest growth. There is a similar story with manufacturing where the sector appears to be expanding slowly nationally. The rust belt states do not appear to be getting their share of this expansion. Thus far, Pennsylvania and Ohio have been big losers of manufacturing jobs in the first five months of the Trump presidency.

*Alan Barber is Director of Domestic Policy at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) in Washington, D.C.

Earlier this year Arctic sea ice sank to a record low wintertime extent for the third straight year. Now NASA is flying a set of instruments north of Greenland to observe the impact of the melt season on the Arctic’s oldest and thickest sea ice.

Operation IceBridge, NASA’s airborne survey of polar ice, launched a short campaign on July 17 from Thule Air Base, in northwest Greenland. Weather permitting, the IceBridge scientists are expecting to complete six, 4-hour-long flights focusing on sea ice that has survived at least one summer. This older multiyear ice, once the bulwark of the Arctic sea ice pack, has dramatically thinned and shrunk in extent along with the warming climate: in the mid-1980s, multi-year ice accounted for 70 percent of total winter Arctic sea ice extent; by the end of 2012, this percentage had dropped to less than 20 percent.

“Most of the central Arctic Ocean used to be covered with thick multiyear ice that would not completely melt during the summer and reflect back sunshine,” said Nathan Kurtz, IceBridge’s project scientist and a sea ice researcher at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “But we have now lost most of this old ice and exposed the open ocean below, which absorbs most of the sun’s energy. That’s one reason the Arctic warming has increased nearly twice the global average– when we lose the reflecting cover of the Arctic Ocean, we lose a mechanism to cool the planet.”

The sea ice flights will survey melt ponds, the pools of melt water on the ice surface that may contribute to the accelerated retreat of sea ice. Last summer, IceBridge carried a short campaign from Barrow, Alaska, to study young sea ice, which tends to be thinner and flatter than multiyear ice and thus has shallower melt ponds on its surface.

“The ice we’re flying over this summer is much more deformed, with a much rougher topography, so the melt ponds that form on it are quite different,” Kurtz said.

IceBridge is also flying a set of tracks to locate areas of sea ice that the mission already flew over in March and April, during its regular springtime campaign, to measure how the ice has melted since then.

“The sea ice can easily have drifted hundreds of miles between the spring and now, so we’re tracking the ice as it’s moving from satellite data,” Kurtz said.

The summer research flights are aboard an HU-25C Guardian Falcon aircraft from NASA’s Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia. The plane is carrying a laser instrument that measures changes in ice elevation and a high-resolution camera system to map land ice, as well as two experimental instruments.

IceBridge’s main instrument, the Airborne Topographic Mapper laser altimeter, was recently upgraded to transmit 10,000 pulses every second, over three times more than the previous laser versions and with a shorter pulse than previous generations. The upgrade will allow the mission to measure ice elevation more precisely as well as try out new uses on land ice. During this campaign, IceBridge researchers want to experiment whether the laser is able to measure the depth of the aquamarine lakes of melt water that form on the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the summer. Large meltwater lakes are visible from space, but depth estimates from satellite imagery — and thus the volume of water they contain– have large uncertainties. Those depth estimates are key to calculating how much ice melts on Greenland’s ice sheet surface during the summer.

“Scientists have measured the depth of these lakes directly by collecting data from Zodiacs,” said Michael Studinger, principal investigator for the laser instrument team. “It’s very dangerous to do this, because these lakes can drain without warning and you don’t want to be on a lake collecting data when that happens. Collecting data from an airborne platform is safer and more efficient.”

Researchers have used lasers to map the bottom of the sea in coastal areas, so Studinger is optimistic that the instrument will be able to see the bottom of the meltwater lakes and that possibly IceBridge will expand this new capability in the future. A mission that IceBridge flew on July 19 over a dozen supraglacial lakes in northwest Greenland gathered a set of measurements that Studinger’s team will analyze over the following weeks and months.

An American Jesuit priest has died has died just a week after receiving Taiwanese citizenship, reports say.

Father Daniel Ross, a former dean of Fu Jen Catholic University’s sociology department, died on July 22 at age 84.

Taiwan recently changed its naturalization laws allowing foreign individuals to hold dual citizenship.

Most of those awarded citizenship have been Catholic missionaries who have spent decades in Taiwan.

Ross was born in Wisconsin in 1933 and arrived in Taiwan in 1960 after having studied Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles, California.

He took Chinese language classes in Hsinchu and then went on to teach English in Changhua County before studying in the Philippines for three years. After returning to Taiwan in 1966, he became a priest in Hsinchu.

He later obtained a Ph.D. in sociology in the U.S. before starting a teaching career at Fu Jen in New Taipei City.

The Jesuit priest once said he saw education as more than just teaching, but as a basis for understanding the needs of society, culture and other people.

He was handed a Taiwanese ID card on July 14, reports said.

While Iranian MPs are requesting that judiciary temporary suspends executions for minor drug charges, a proposal to amend the law and reduce execution rates returns back to the parliament for some changes.

Iranian Parliament’s Judiciary Commission has called on the judiciary to impose a moratorium on the execution of all death sentences in connection with drug convictions until the finalization of the proposed changes to the penal code as well as the law governing substances of abuse.

There are 5000 prisoners on death row in Iran awaiting execution for drug related offences and this proposal if approved could save many lives.

The proposal that was introduced by 170 MPs, has come to be known as 170 MP Proposal and it seeks to reduce convictions and executions for minor drug charges.

Meanwhile the proposal that was set to be finally voted on 7 June 2017, returns back to the parliamentary debates. With some new changes proposed on 9 July 2017, the final voting is postponed until further notice but many MPs except a vote by the end of July.

The new changes involve minimum amount of drug sales, production and trafficking for execution. As it is set now, the proposal for amending the code find execution appropriate if the charge is related to sales, trafficking and/or carrying of more than 100 kg of “traditional” (natural) narcotics or psychoactive substances and two kg of synthetic psychoactives/narcotics.

On 9 July, Hassan Nowrouzi Iranian Parliament’s Judiciary Commission Spokesperson told “Khane-ye Mellat”, the official media of the parliament that the new changes are all about the exact measurements to be added to the code after revisions are approved.

Nowrouzi stated that “according to the reforms that were introduced, punishments related to article 4 of the Substance Abuse Law are proposed to be changed in a way that production, cultivation, extraction, distribution and sales of narcotics, hallucinogens and psychoactive substances which are natural (like opium and opium natural derivatives like shireh and sukhteh) is punishable by execution only if the amount is more that 100 kg.”

According to Nowrouzi the proposal also plans to amend the law so that charges related to production, distribution, sales and trafficking of narcotics, hallucinogens and psychoactive substances that are synthetic is punishable by death only if the amount exceed 2 kg. Nowrouzi explains that by synthetic, the law means heroin, morphine, cocaine and the like.

This proposal has to yet get voted on. The initiative to amend the laws governing trafficking of substances of abuse was proposed in 2015 and in 2016 the proposal was approved for the first reading. Ever since, the 170 MP Proposal is floating around in parliamentary readings with changes being introduced every once in a while.

Iranian MPs want Moratorium on Executions

In the meanwhile the Iranian Parliament’s Judiciary Commission has called on the judiciary to impose a moratorium on the execution of all death sentences in connection with drug convictions until the finalization of the proposed changes to the penal code in parliament.

Currently Iran’s penal code subscribes to capital punishment for most drug related charges. Shargh daily reports that members of the parliamentary commission, Mohammad Kazemi and Mohammadali Pourmokhtar state that the proposal is widely supported in parliament and has a high probability of passing in the near future.

Kazemi added that the fate of those who will no longer be executed in the event of the ratification of the new proposal is currently under a shroud of doubt. This has triggered the MPs to call on the judiciary to suspend all executions for drug charges until the Proposal has been passed through proper procedures.

The proposal has reportedly passed through one reading however its critics in parliament have managed to delay its final passage with calls for greater clarifications. Kazemi reports that while the proposal is supported by many institutions involved in the battle against drugs, the police and drug task forces are highly concerned that a reduction in punishment would lead to a rise in trafficking activities.

It is estimated that 5000 prisoners in Iranian prisons are on death row for drug related convictions. This week Iran’s Human Rights Organization reported that 129 drug related executions have already been carried out in Iran in the first half of 2017.

Iran is a major transit and destination point for drug traffickers which has made the fight against drugs a major concern for Iranian authorities. IRI have mostly addressed the drug problem through investment in security and policing as well as issuing heavy sentences for substances of abuse related charges.

The large number of annual executions in the country, most of which are for drug related convictions, is continuously being criticized by both domestic and international human rights groups.

Activism against execution has been successful in triggering a response in parliament which has found more support under the moderate government of Hassan Rohani making the political atmosphere more amenable to achieving a reduction in death penalty sentencing.

The 21st century can emerge as the Asian century, only if there is peace and there are supportive and mutually beneficial relations between the major powers of the region.

By Ashok Sajjanhar

Ever since the confrontation on the cold, deserted Doka La or Dokalam plateau on the India, Bhutan, China tri-junction came to light in end June, China has launched a blitzkrieg of sharp invectives against India for going against the 1890 Treaty that was signed between Britain and China demarcating the border between Sikkim and Tibet. They have stated, quite inaccurately, that India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru had acknowledged the applicability of this Treaty to the boundary between Sikkim and China.

Contrary to China’s claim that the letter was an overwhelming endorsement of the 1890 treaty on the Sikkim-Tibet border, Nehru had taken objection to Chou-en-Lai’s statement that the boundaries of Sikkim and Bhutan did not fall within the scope of the discussion. Nehru had conveyed categorically that the Treaty did not define the southern borders between Sikkim and Tibet which had yet to be demarcated. Nehru’s letter of 26 September 1959, in response to Chou-en-Lai’s missive of 8 September 1959, clearly stated that the 1890 treaty defined only the northern part of the Sikkim-Tibet border and not the tri-junction area that brings Bhutan into play.

Over the last several decades, relations between India and China have been less than warm and cordial. Even at the best of times, there have been undercurrents of tension and resentment, if not hostility, between the two countries.

But what is happening on the Doka La plateau for the last more than a month is unprecedented. It is incomparable to anything that occurred earlier. Foreign Secretary Jaishankar might try to suggest, as he did in his recent lecture in Singapore, that this standoff is like other earlier border incidents between the two countries and would also be handled amicably by the two sides as has been done in the past. But this does not reflect an accurate assessment of the situation. India’s Foreign Office and indeed Jaishankar know this. That is why External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj categorically asserted in the Parliament on July 20 that India is capable of defending itself against any onslaught by China.

The problem between India and China has been brewing for a long time. It has come to a head with this incident. The root of the problem is that China is in a hurry to quickly assert its Middle Kingdom status that it feels it is entitled to and which it lost because of the ”century of national humiliation” and imposition of unequal treaties. As Chinese President Xi Jinping declared soon after assuming power, he would strive to “achieve the Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese people.” The Doka La standoff designed to denigrate and diminish India is an important step in that direction.

China looks upon India as the only power that can challenge its unbridled march to supremacy in Asia. While China was demanding a multipolar world sometime ago (this refrain seems to have decreased considerably in recent times) it is not willing to countenance a multi-polar Asia. While it might speak of peace, goodwill and global good, what it seeks to achieve is hegemony and acknowledgement of its pre-eminent status by all countries in the neighbourhood.

It is for this reason that it has been trying to box India in South Asia so that it will not be able to play a role appropriate to its size in territory, population, talent, human resources and economy in the region or globally.

Some analysts tend to suggest that China’s unflinching support of Pakistan is a backlash of India’s increasing closeness with the United States. While expanding and warming relations between India and the US, particularly over the last three years during the era of Prime Minister Modi, might have made China nervous, it is not the reason for China’s growing proximity with Pakistan. It would be an exaggeration to suggest that stronger India-US ties have prompted China to adopt unhelpful anti-India stance by opposing India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), obstructing designation of Masood Azhar as a terrorist by the United Nations etc. China considers India’s rise to be against its interest and at its expense. For China, the significance of 21st century being the Asian Century is that China will exercise unchallenged and unquestioned dominance over Asia and the world.

The harsh and shrill tenor and rhetoric emanating from China is because it did not expect that India would move in quickly and take a strong, unrelenting stand to defend the rights and interest of a small country like Bhutan. China had mistakenly though that it would be able to move in and swiftly construct the road on the Dokalam plateau which would bring it strikingly close to the Siliguri Corridor. This would also put its forces in a commanding position to cut off all contact between India’s mainland and Arunachal Pradesh which it claims as its own and has increasingly started calling it South Tibet in recent days.

Two aspects are clear. One that from the word go, China has been portraying India as the “aggressor” which has occupied territory which is inalienably Chinese. It has not even vaguely suggested that China is trying to usurp territory that belongs to Bhutan; that there has been a dispute between the two countries in this region and that both of them decided as per their Agreements of 1988 and 1998 to arrive at a final decision through discussions and not through force. More than 20 rounds of talks have been held between Bhutan and China but no solution is in sight. China has been nibbling away at Bhutanese territory over many years without any effective opposition from Bhutan or from India. China must have thought that this time also it would be able to build the road southwards on the Dokalam plateau which would significantly expand its strategic advantage over India.

Another factor that seems to have contributed to China’s blustering and self righteous behaviour is the week-kneed and inadequate opposition by the US and ASEAN countries to its confiscation and militarisation of 3.5 million sq Kms of South China Sea notwithstanding the comprehensive and sweeping verdict against its claims by the UN body.

China has been spouting venom against India not only through its party publication, the Global Times, but also through its foreign office machinery. The Chinese foreign office has been employing most intemperate, undiplomatic and threatening language which appears to be getting increasingly menacing and sinister by the day. Foreign Secretary Jaishankar also acknowledged this while briefing members of the Parliamentary Foreign Relations Committee that China has been “unusually aggressive”. Jaishankar continued to maintain in front of the parliamentary panel that India and China were engaged with each other diplomatically to resolve the issue through dialogue. China on the other hand has stated unequivocally that no talks with India are possible till India withdraws its forces from the Dokalam plateau.

Both the countries appear to be at an impasse the like of which has not been seen since the Sumdorong Chu incident in the then NEFA (currently Arunachal Pradesh) in 1987. From the increasingly belligerent and hostile rhetoric emanating from Beijing, it does not appear that it is ready to agree to a diplomatically negotiated solution. It has painted itself in a corner and would not like to be seen losing face to India when it imagines itself to be the next unchallenged superpower of the world.

India on the other hand has been extremely measured and restrained in its pronouncements. Response of the government through the official statement by the Ministry of External Affairs on 30 June has been balanced and non-provocative. It stated that construction of the road by China represents a change in status quo and entails serious implications for India’s security. India has tried to down play the seriousness of the cascading confrontation. This has been evident in India’s official pronouncements which have been discreet, reasonable and responsible while at the same time not sounding diffident or weak.

It has made up for its reticence in words by being decisive in its actions through the visit of Chief of Army Staff General Bipin Rawat to the Sikkim sector and bolstering its troop enforcements in a non-combative mode in that area. India has clearly sent out the message that it does not want a military confrontation but if one was imposed upon it, it would be prepared to defend its interests with determination and vigour.

Today the rapidly billowing dispute is at a very different stage. It is necessary for the government to do a deep rethink and engage in a hardnosed public messaging offensive giving out its own position on the issue. The danger, if this is not done, is that the world and some sections of the domestic Indian “intelligentsia” might start believing that India does not have a counter-narrative to what China is saying. India, either directly or indirectly needs to tear the falsehoods being dished out by China. While India may continue to try and prod China to behave with “strategic maturity,” it should not lose the battle of public perception by adopting a muted and reticent approach.

India also needs to look at other avenues and leverages available to it against China. Even if it does not spell them out in the open, it should be ready to bring them into play as and when the situation demands. Several of these like bilateral trade, Tibet, One China Policy etc have been mentioned. Chinese media, think tanks as well as its foreign office have been acting in a most irresponsible and incendiary manner by challenging the accession of Sikkim to India, by suggesting that China could intervene militarily in Kashmir at Pakistan’s request, by offering to negotiate between India and Pakistan, etc.

Most importantly, India needs to be fully prepared and ready to respond to any adventurous and reckless incident or confrontation that China might decide to impose upon it. India can also be reasonably certain that if a showdown between India and China were to take place, even in a limited manner, Pakistan would be ready to jump in on China’s side to take full advantage of the situation. India would not be able to depend upon any of its partners, neither America, nor Japan, nor Russia to come to its aid in any material or substantive manner. India will have to depend solely on its own resources and assets both in terms of equipment and, even more importantly, in terms of its soldiers and manpower. India can be certain that with its strong and inspiring leadership at the national level, the clash will be anything but a repeat of 1962. Chinese troops have not seen any action since the last many decades while Indian forces are in full readiness having not received any spite over these years as they have been engaged in dealing with the incessant low intensity conflict imposed on it on its western border.

The 21st century can emerge as the Asian Century only if there is peace and there are supportive and mutually beneficial relations between major powers of the region including China, India, Japan, ROK, ASEAN, and others. Tranquility and non-adversarial situation on borders and mutually advantageous ties between India and China are a sine qua non for harnessing the commensurate gains and dividends from this opportunity that beckons the region and the world.

The ongoing Dokalam crisis and China’s increasingly combative pronouncements have far-reaching consequences for the future of India-China relations. It has brought into sharp profile the thinking among China’s decision and policy making party and government functionaries about what they think of India. It will take considerable time, if at all, for the threats issued by China’s foreign office spokespersons, think tanks and official media to recede from public memory. India’s foreign and security establishments will have taken note of all the venom poured by the Chinese state-owned media in recent weeks.

Events and developments over the last few weeks have put the future of the Asian Century in serious doubt and jeopardy. The ball is in China’s court to moderate its rhetoric and come to the negotiating table to resolve the issue. In the absence of an early peaceful resolution, China will be the biggest loser.

By Dusica Tomovic

Saudi Arabia continues to be one of the main export destinations for weapons from Montenegro, despite fears that arms sold to them could well end up elsewhere.

The overall exports to Saudi Arabia went down in 2016 compared to 2015. Photo: Pixabay.

A new UN report reveals that Saudi Arabia has remained one of the most important buyers of obsolete ex-Yugoslav arms from Montenegro.

According to the document on yearly arms exports, filed under the country’s obligation to report to the UN Arms Trade Treaty, Montenegro sold Saudi Arabia 82 items of large calibre artillery system, mostly mortars, in 2016.

It also sold 34 mortars of a calibre less than 75mm. The Saudi sale was the only part of the report – which BIRN obtained – where the value of the export is not listed.

According to an earlier UN Comtrade database, which BIRN also has obtained, Montenegro sold 1,040,986 US dollars’ worth of arms and ammunition to Saudi Arabia last year. The total amount of sold weapons was 132 tonnes.

Saudi Arabia and Germany top the list of Montenegrin arms buyers.

The latest report reveals that Germany bought from Montenegro 9.7 millions euros’ worth pistols and revolvers in 2016. While over 50,000 pistols and revolvers were sold last year, Berlin was the largest importer.

While Germany and Saudi Arabia imported millions dollars worth of weapons, all other countries’ purchases were more modest.

Over 10,000 missiles and missiles launchers, worth around 250,000 euros, were exported to the United Arab Emirates, Nigeria and Iraq.

The export of small arms and light weapons category in the report shows over million euros’ worth of exports to US, Italy, Serbia and the Czech Republic.

The latest data also showed that overall exports to Saudi Arabia went down in 2016 compared to 2015. Montenegro sold more than 4 million US dollars’ worth of weapons to the Saudis that year.

Between August 2015 and May 2016, Montenegro sold Saudi Arabia 32 tonnes of anti-tank weapons and 250 tonnes of ammunition, including mortar shells and bullets for anti-aircraft guns.

That shipment included 10,000 Yugoslav-era Zolja anti-tank rocket launchers, 56 mortars and nearly 500,000 mortar shells and other ammunition.

In March, the special prosecutor for organised crime started investigating the country’s main arms exporter, MDI company, over suspicions that it sold arms to Saudi Arabia that have ended up elsewhere.

BIRN reported that the prosecution was checking the credibility of the end-user certificates, the documents designed to prove that equipment or arms have reached the designated purchaser, not another country or entity, especially one that is under an international arms embargo.

The MDI’s director, Zoran Damjanovic, denied any wrongdoing in the arms export deals.

He said the MDI would continue to export weapons to Saudi Arabia, pointing also to the billions of euros’ worth of arms exports to the Gulf kingdom from the US and the UK in recent years.

By Cheryl Pellerin

Iraqi forces now control all parts of Mosul, Iraq, while tough fighting against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria continues in Raqqa, Syria, Pentagon spokesman Navy Capt. Jeff Davis told reporters Monday.

Since the height of ISIS’s power in 2014, the coalition has retaken more than 70 percent of formerly ISIS-controlled territory in Iraq and 50 percent in Syria, he said, and the coalition fighting ISIS continues to grow.

“There are now 73 partners in that coalition, which is 69 countries plus the European Union, NATO, the Arab League and Interpol,” the International Police Organization, he said, noting that coalition partners in Iraq and Syria have retaken more than 44,400 square miles of territory, and freed 5 million people from ISIS control.

Iraq Operations

In an update of operations beginning with Iraq, Davis said that Iraqi forces continue to conduct detailed clearance operations of rebel caves and tunnel systems in Mosul’s old city, looking for any remaining ISIS fighters and seeking to identify explosive devices that could threaten friendly forces or civilians.

The old city is the focus of cleanup operations, he said, and the Iraqi army, the Emergency Response Division forces, the Counter Terrorism Service and federal police are holding sectors in Mosul until the holding force takes over security.

“There’s been only one coalition strike in Mosul in the last week and a single-digit number of direct-fire engagements in Mosul in the last week. These are indicators of the improved security and stability situation there,” Davis said.

Before the single strike over the past week, the last time the coalition made no strikes on Mosul was Sept. 15, he added.

The coalition has conducted multiple strikes in Tal Afar this week against supply caches, vehicle-borne bomb factories and command-and-control locations, Davis said.

“[Iraq’s] forces will decide when it’s best to begin the offensive operations to defeat ISIS in Tal Afar, and when [they are] ready, the coalition will be there to support,” he said.

Syria Operations

Davis said that today is the 50th day of operations to defeat ISIS in Raqqa and about 40 percent of the city is now under control of the Syrian Democratic Forces, and yesterday the SDF liberated about 2 square miles of terrain in and around Raqqa as they fought off stiff resistance along three axes.

On the city’s western axis, he added, the SDF gained ground along a corridor south of the main supply route despite heavy ISIS resistance with small arms, machine-gun fire and homemade bombs.

“On the eastern axis, the SDF made incremental gains and repelled ISIS counterattacks, and incorporated indirect fires and vehicle-borne [improvised explosive devices], Davis said. “On the southern axis south of the Euphrates River the SDF cleared about 1.5 square miles, despite ISIS counterattacks from area villages.”

He also said the east-west deconfliction line south of the Euphrates is holding, referring to the boundary established through the Russian channel to deconflict the advance of regime forces.

“Regime forces further to the south are moving … in the direction of Dar Azar,” Davis said, “and this deconfliction mechanism has worked effectively to ensure that there are no skirmishes between SDF fighters and regime fighters as the regime moves further downriver.”

By Carl Schreck*

(RFE/RL) — Add another name to the list of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s associates who have reportedly become billionaires under his reign.

Vladimir Litvinenko, a former Putin campaign manager and a St. Petersburg university rector who has said he supervised the Russian president’s dissertation, is now worth more than $1 billion, according to a respected Russian newspaper.

News of Litvinenko’s rising fortune ricocheted across the Russian media landscape on July 24 following an investigation of his wealth and assets published by the Vedomosti business daily.

The rector of the St. Petersburg Mining Institute is one of several Putin associates to have amassed fortunes during the Russian president’s 17 years in power. Their wealth has triggered accusations — rejected by the Kremlin — of corruption and cronyism from Russia’s opposition and Western officials.

An analysis by the Russian version of Forbes magazine last year showed that three billionaires seen as close to Putin — businessmen Arkady Rotenberg and Gennady Timchenko, as well as Putin’s reported son-in-law, Kirill Shamalov — netted billions of dollars in state orders in 2015.

Increased Stake

It was no secret that Litvinenko was a wealthy man — at least not since 2011, when Russian fertilizer giant Phosagro revealed details of its ownership. Phosagro said the academic owned a 10-percent stake in the company, which was previously owned by Russian-tycoon-turned-jailed-Kremlin-foe Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

Litvinenko — who ran Putin’s presidential campaign in St. Petersburg in 2000, 2004, and 2012 — has steadily increased his stake in Phosagro. In April, he bought up a further 4.81-percent share, bringing his total stake to 19.35 percent, according to Phosagro’s website.

On its 2017 list of Russia’s richest people, the Russian version of Forbes magazine estimated Litvinenko’s wealth at $850 million.

But his purchase of additional Phosagro shares in April — which made him the company’s second-largest shareholder behind the family of Russian tycoon and former lawmaker Andrei Guryev — pushed Litvinenko’s wealth over $1 billion, Vedomosti reported.

The newspaper appeared to base its estimate on Phosagro’s value on Russia’s main stock index, the Micex, at the close of trading on July 21. Based on that measure, his stake was worth 59.9 billion rubles, or $1 billion. Litvinenko’s declared income last year was 195.7 million rubles ($3.27 million).

The Vedomosti investigation, which looked into how Litvinenko amassed his wealth, was the top news item on the leading Russian search engine Yandex on July 24. The report, which said Litvinenko refused to comment, came to no firm conclusions about how the rector obtained his original stake.

Forbes and other Russian media outlets had previously reported that Litvinenko took part in a 1990s voucher privatization of Apatit, a major fertilizer-component producer that was later acquired by Phosagro.

The allegedly illegal privatization of Apatit was part of Russia’s politically explosive prosecution of Khodorkovsky, whose bank, Menatep, acquired a 20-percent stake in the firm in 1994. The asset was seized by the state and sold back to Phosagro in 2012.

Estranged Daughter

Litvinenko’s estranged daughter, who has been locked in a custody battle with her parents over her daughter for years, said in an interview this month that she believes her father has been able to leverage his links to Putin to enrich himself.

“I don’t deny that he has excellent managerial abilities,” Olga Litvinenko, who lives in Europe and recently joined a civic group founded by the now-exiled Khodorkovsky, told RFE/RL’s Russian Service. “He undoubtedly has managerial talent. But it was his friendship with Putin that opened many doors.”

Litvinenko has served as the St. Petersburg Mining Institute’s rector since 1994. Three years after Litvinenko took the helm there, Putin earned a graduate degree from the institute, writing a dissertation that two scholars at the Washington-based Brookings Institution later alleged had been partly plagiarized.

Olga Litvinenko claimed in the interview with RFE/RL’s Russian Service that she had seen her father write the dissertation at the family dacha. The assertion could not be independently verified.

For his part, Litvinenko has defended Putin against the plagiarism allegation.

“I followed the work on [the dissertation] from day one,” Litvinenko was quoted by the Kommersant newspaper as saying in 2006, adding that he and his colleagues had told the former KGB officer and future president to rework the first draft of the paper.

Litvinenko said he had “no doubt” that Putin wrote the dissertation himself and that “enemies” of Putin were seeking to smear him, Kommersant reported at the time.

An event like the initial Donald Trump-Vladimir Putin meeting encourages more discussion about the beast in the east. On this matter, some requests have asked for a formal presentation of my informal observations.

Ralph Peters’ predictable spin is discussed in my last Strategic Culture Foundation (SCF) article of July 17. Two others stand out, along with some recent statesmanlike conduct from Putin.

David Ignatius’ July 7 Washington Post piece has this thought:

“Trump may claim a ‘win,’ but the greater beneficiary is probably Putin, who seized this opportunity to ‘come in from the cold’ after the sanctions and diplomatic isolation that followed Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea.”

There’s a certain sense of irony when the neocons and neolibs suggest that Trump is living in a bubble. Since 2014, Putin has had many high level meetings among the international community. These talks have included the leaders of France, Germany, Turkey, China and Japan. If anything, Russia’s position on Syria (to defeat terrorism first over regime change in that country) seems to have gained ground (particularly in France). Simply put, Putin/Russia hasn’t been isolated. Upon a further objective overview, there’s no legitimate basis for Russia to be isolated.

Louis Proyect’s July 7 Counterpunch article on Poland’s past with Russia came shortly after Trump’s visit to Poland. Concerning Russian-Polish history, Proyect engages in a historical cherry picking. He writes:

“The relation of Poland to Russia was analogous to that of Ireland to Great Britain, Quebec to English Canada, the Haudenosaunee (Iroquois) to the United States. The Polish people were an oppressed nation within the prison-house of nations that had been Tsarist Russia.”

The Irish have never really been in a position to dominate and oppress Britain. The same can’t be said of Poland relative to Russia. Poland’s 17th century attack and subjugation of Russia was certainly not benevolent. There’s also the issue of the 90,000 plus Poles who joined Napoleon in his attack on Russia in 1812. Josef Pilsudski’s double dealing during the Russian Civil War came back to bite Poland. (This imperial, Machiavellian, anti-Russian attempt on his part is detailed in my April 7, 2016 SCF article, rerun the following day in Eurasia Review.)

Proyect’s anti-Jewish tag on the Russians is disproportionate. Poles have had their share of anti-Jewish sentiment. Among other instances, this is noted in the docudrama “Europa Europa“, centering around a WW II era German Jew who experiences Nazi, Polish and Soviet rule. In this movie, the mostly Russian comprised Soviets come out looking the least anti-Jewish of the three aforementioned groups.

Proyect’s reference to the Katyn massacre of Poles by the Soviets leads to a comparison with an earlier instance which gets little notice in the West. Shortly after WW I, the Polish-Soviet War, saw thousands of Red Army prisoners die under dreadful conditions in Polish captivity. The adage about two wrongs not making a right, shouldn’t excuse hypocrisy.

Katyn was a calculated mass killing. The situation with the mass deaths under Polish captivity have been attributed to unintended poor sanitary conditions which involved a lack of adequate housing. I’m not sure that explanation fully explains away any culpability for these deaths.

The recent diagnosis of Arizona Senator John McCain having a severe form of brain cancer has seen two extremes of coverage. At this time of great challenge for him, US mass media has uncritically lauded him as a hero. In contrast, some alternative sources have been in a rather gleeful mood over his ailment.

For quite some time, McCain has said some inaccurately unkind things about Russia and Putin. In his series of interviews with Oliver Stone, the Russian president seemed to shock Stone a bit, with a measured appraisal of McCain. Putin said he admired McCain’s patriotism, while disagreeing with the Arizona senator’s faulty way of looking at some things. On this particular, the Russian leader elaborated by likening McCain to the Roman senator, who frequently stated that “Carthage must be destroyed.”

Last week, Putin took the time to meet the Russian human rights activist Lyudmila Alexeyeva in honor of her 90th birthday. At this meeting, Putin gave a positive reference to Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

Michael Averko is a New York based foreign policy analyst and media critic.

A US spy plane flying near the eastern coast of China was intercepted by two Chinese fighter jets and had to change course, US officials said. The surveillance aircraft was flying over international waters between China and South Korea.

The incident took place on Sunday, unnamed US officials told reporters on Monday. An EP-3 ARIES signals intelligence plane was flying about 90 miles (140km) south of the port city of Qingdao, when it was approached by two J-10 interceptors, armed with air-to-air missiles.

One of the Chinese jets flew under the EP-3 and popped up 300 feet (90 meters) in front of the US plane, causing the crew “to take evasive action to avoid collision,” according to one official.

The US Navy described the flight as “a routine mission operating in accordance with international law” up until the “interaction” between the spy plane and the Chinese interceptors.

“While we are still investigating the incident, initial reports from the US aircrew characterized the intercept as unsafe,” said Lieutenant-Commander Matt Knight, Pacific Fleet spokesman. “The issue is being addressed with China through appropriate diplomatic and military channels.”

The EP-3 Airborne Reconnaissance Integrated Electronic System (ARIES) is a version of the P-3 Orion spy plane. Both are in service with the US Navy.

The US armed forces have recently stepped up their activity in the region, provoking anger in China. In early July, Beijing accused Washington of violating China’s sovereignty and international law after a US missile destroyer sailed some 30 kilometers from the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea with Beijing sending warplanes and military vessels to intercept the ship.

Besides China, which claims practically all of the South China Sea, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam lay conflicting claims to the islands.

This is the third time in recent months that Chinese interceptors have warned off US spy planes flying off the coast of China. In late May, as the US Navy sailed near disputed islands in the South China Sea, two Chinese jets buzzed a P-3 Orion 150 miles (240km) southeast of Hong Kong in what US officials called an “unsafe intercept.”

A week earlier, Chinese jets intercepted a US Air Force WC-135 Constant Phoenix “nuclear sniffer” plane over the East China Sea.

In April 2001, an EP-3E ARIES II collided with a Chinese J-8 fighter and had to make an emergency landing on Hainan Island. The crash killed the Chinese pilot. While the crew was repatriated within 10 days, the plane remained in Chinese possession until July, when it was shipped back to the US in pieces.

China previously slammed the US for citing freedom of navigation and overflight as pretexts to show off its military force. Following the overflight of the two US B-1B Lancer bombers over the disputed waterway last month, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that China “resolutely opposes”provocations carried out in the name of exercising this freedom that are designed to “flaunt military force and harm China’s sovereignty and security.”

Washington, however, is no stranger to accusing other nations of “provocations” when a foreign aircraft appears in international airspace close to the US border. In May, a group of Russian Tu-95 “Bear” bombers and Su-35 jets were intercepted by US Air Force during a “routine flight over international Pacific waters” off the coast of Alaska.

The incident immediately made the headlines in the US media. Fox News broke this story by saying that the aircraft “entered Alaska’s Air Defense Zone” and “prompted Air Force escort.” It also referred to the routine Russian flights near Alaska as “recent Russian provocations.”

When it comes to own jets approaching non-NATO states, the US has been known to lash out at intercepts, which it often deems to be carried out improperly.

On June 21, the United States European Command (EUCOM) expressed its concern over the Russian Su-27 jet intercepting a NATO F-16 fighter jet over the Baltic Sea by describing the incident as “unsafe.” However, it was the NATO aircraft that approached a Russian defense minister’s plane above the neutral waters of the Baltic Sea thus provoking a response from the plane’s military escort.

Just a day earlier, a spokesman for the US European Command, Navy Capt. Danny Hernandez, accused the Russian pilot of having “poor control of the aircraft” during another incident, involving the Russian and US planes. The Russian Defense Ministry responded that it was the US RC-135 spy plane that approached the Russian border and then made a “provocative turn” towards the Russian fighter jet, which had been scrambled for an interception mission.

The Chinese authorities should immediately and unconditionally release Liu Xia, the wife of deceased Nobel Peace laureate Liu Xiaobo, said Human Rights Watch. The government should also stop harassing and detaining Liu’s supporters for commemorating his death.

Since Liu Xiaobo’s funeral on July 15, 2017, following his death from complications of liver cancer on July 13, the authorities have refused to provide information on Liu Xia’s whereabouts, raising concerns that she has been forcibly disappeared.

“Liu Xia has been a prisoner of the state for years simply because of her association with a man whose beliefs the Chinese government cannot tolerate,” said Sophie Richardson, China director at Human Rights Watch. “Her forced disappearance since Liu Xiaobo’s funeral heightens concerns about her well-being and safety.”

Liu Xia was last seen in an official photo taken on July 15, in which she and a few relatives are lowering an urn containing Liu Xiaobo’s ashes into the Pacific Ocean at a beach near Dalian, a city in northeast China. Since then, her friends and relatives in Beijing have not been able to reach her directly. According to international and Hong Kong media reports, on July 19, authorities have forcibly taken Liu Xia for a “vacation” in the southwestern province of Yunnan.

Liu Xia, 56, is a Beijing-based poet, artist, and photographer. She has published collections of poems and her photographic works have been exhibited in France, Italy, the United States, and other countries. Liu Xia met Liu Xiaobo through Beijing literary circles and married him when he was imprisoned in a re-education through labor camp in 1996.

Since October 2010, when Liu Xiaobo began serving his most recent sentence for allegedly inciting subversion, Liu Xia has been held arbitrarily under house arrest and deprived of almost all human contact except with close family and a few friends. Throughout Liu Xiaobo’s hospitalization, which began in June 2017, Liu Xia was prevented from speaking freely to family, friends, or the media. She is known to suffer from severe depression and a heart condition.

An enforced disappearance is defined under international law as the arrest or detention of a person by state officials or their agents followed by a refusal to acknowledge the deprivation of liberty, or to reveal the person’s fate or whereabouts. Enforced disappearances place the victim at greater risk of abuse and inflict unbearable cruelty on family members and friends waiting to learn of their fate.

Since Liu Xiaobo’s death, Chinese authorities have also systematically prevented his supporters from holding commemorative activities. On July 18, police detained Dalian-based activists Jiang Jianjun and Wang Chenggang for throwing a bottle with a message to Liu at the beach near where Liu’s ashes were scattered. Jiang was later given 10 days’ administrative detention. It is unclear whether Wang has been released. Ding Jiaxi, a Beijing-based human rights lawyer, was detained at a Shenyang police station from July 13 to 15 after he protested in front of the hospital where Liu received treatment. Beijing police have held activist Hu Jia under house arrest since June 27 to prevent him from going to the Shenyang hospital or participating in memorial activities.

On July 19, as Liu Xiaobo’s supporters in Hong Kong, Melbourne, London, San Francisco, and elsewhere gathered to mark the seventh day of his death, a traditional Chinese memorial rite, police across China called, summoned, or visited activists at their homes, warning them not to join the commemoration. Those who have been harassed include Guangzhou-based activist Wu Yangwei (also known as Ye Du), writer Li Xuewen and rights lawyer Huang Simin, Hangzhou-based writers Wang Yongzhi (also known as Wang Wusi) and Wen Kejian, Shanghai-based activist Jiang Danwen, and activist Hua Chunhui, based in Wuxi, a city near Shanghai.

Liu Xiaobo’s death has also prompted new action by China’s internet censors, Human Rights Watch said. On the Twitter-like Chinese microblogging platform Weibo, “RIP,” and the candle emoji were censored. On WeChat, a social media platform with more than 700 million daily active users, the number of blocked word combinations have significantly increased, and images related to Liu were filtered even in private one-on-one chats, according to a study by the Canada-based organization Citizens Lab.

After announcing Liu Xiaobo’s death on July 13, Shenyang authorities arranged a private funeral that only Liu Xia, a few of Liu Xiaobo’s relatives, and some unidentified individuals, possibly state security officials, were allowed to attend. The funeral was followed by a sea burial, although there was no indication these were the funeral arrangements that Liu Xiaobo and Liu Xia wanted. Authorities appeared to impose these on the family to prevent having a gravesite that could become a place of pilgrimage for Liu’s supporters. Liu’s long-estranged brother, Liu Xiaoguang, later appeared at a government news conference thanking the Communist Party for its handling of Liu’s treatment and funeral.

“Chinese authorities may think they will succeed in expunging all memories of Liu Xiaobo and all he stood for,” Richardson said. “But in their torment of Liu Xia, their harassment of his friends, and their efforts to silence his supporters, all they do is inspire greater adherence to those ideas.”

Seven weeks into the Gulf Crisis, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani addressed the nation of Qatar reiterating that, “Qatar is fighting terrorism, relentlessly and without compromises, and there is international recognition of Qatar’s role in this regard.”i The Emir also thanked the Qatari people for their resilience and pushing back against the Saudi-led blockade.

Despite of the blockade still being in place and diplomacy moving slowly, Sheikh Tamim had reiterated that Qatar passed the test. The Emir’s seventeen-minute speech also called for negotiations to continue with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates to respect Qatar’s sovereignty; “We are open to dialogue to resolve the outstanding problems [so long as Qatar’s] sovereignty is respected.”ii

Why did the Emir Choose to Speak Now?

Nothing has really changed since the Gulf Crisis began seven weeks ago when the Saudis, Egyptians, Emiratis, and Bahrainis imposed sanctions on Doha for its accusations of Qatar funding terrorism. The speech by the Emir of Qatar showed the region a few things. First, it showed Qatar’s resilience to protecting its sovereignty as an independent nation that can carry out its own foreign policy. Second, the Emir thanked the Qatari people for their solidarity during the past seven weeks. Emir Tamim also sent a message to the world. He thanked the Emir of Kuwait for his mediation efforts during the crisis, and from different nations that helped the mediation efforts. Qatar is ready for dialogue, but with the respect of protecting Qatar’s sovereignty.

The Emir’s speech also came at a time of de-escalation and a calming down of the tensions between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Egypt, and Qatar. Both sides are ready to make concessions, and Qatar has been ready all along to negotiate with its counterparts. In Riyadh, there seems to be a shift in terms of their approach towards Qatar, and the Emir had to make it clear about where Doha stands, and what kind of concessions Qatar needs to make to find a diplomatic solution.

The Europeans and the Americans are also ready to end the crisis. When Secretary of State Rex Tillerson visited Doha last week, he made it clear that Saudi Arabia and Qatar need to reach an agreement to move forward. The other countries like Egypt and the UAE hold more grudges, and they are more ideological about this crisis. In addition, this would provide Egypt and the UAE with some difficulties to accept the concessions that Qatar would be willing to make. For Saudi Arabia, they need a coherent GCC and a united front for negotiating on substantive grounds.

In the Emir’s speech, there is a clear indication that Qatar is willing to engage in dialogue and discussion. Even though there was a forcefulness to the speech and praise from the Qatari people for dealing with the situation, there was also talk of the necessity for GCC coherence to discuss and to disagree, nevertheless to work within the interests of the region. This does represent a new phase in the crisis, and it does, to some extent, represent a reaching out, by Qatar to the countries involved. The speech by Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani also addresses the beginning of not only de-escalation, but finding some sort of common ground to the current crisis.

What Would Be the Reputation of the GCC After the Crisis?

The longer the blockade continues, the greater damage for all the countries involved including Qatar. The Gulf countries provide some of the world’s largest energy reserves which is a huge benefit for energy sectors around the world. Qatar is one of the world’s largest producers of energy and a lot of trade goes through the Gulf countries to the far east. If the blockade continues, this will create an effect on global consumers, (especially on food and energy imports) and it is in the benefit for everyone to end the blockade and come to the table for dialogue. If the GCC crisis is not solved through the Gulf countries, there could be a possibility that this issue could be taken to the United Nations.

There is a skepticism on how to resolve the crisis through the GCC because the bloc is clearly divided and the word ‘divorced’ was even used by the Emiratis about the possible breakup of the GCC. The Gulf Cooperation Council was established in the 1980’s as a Saudi-led initiative at a time when it was a united front for confronting the Shia juggernaut Iran.

To some extent, the 1980’s is a completely different era to where we are today, and the threat from Iran seems like an over-exaggeration rather than a reality. In many ways, the GCC does not have the same impact that it used to have anymore. In addition, the GCC problems are infiltrated in an uncommon agenda where different countries have different agendas. One of the lessons from the GCC crisis, especially from Qatar, is that you don’t need to have a common policy on every ground, but you need to have an understanding. Nowadays, Saudi Arabia does not have the leverage anymore, and it creating their own disaster meddling in the affairs of its neighbors in Yemen, Qatar, and even in Bahrain. Saudi Arabia has also been responsible for spreading Wahhabism across the world from the U.S all the way to the Philippines, and this has also been one of the main factors to instability in the Middle East. Qatar has evolved into an important player as a small nation with a big punch, and the UAE has also been a huge international player when it comes to their military and their economic postures. If the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia do not step away from the GCC always having the same policy on every issue, then there will be no way of resolving crises like this one effectively.

Economic Implications

In his address, the Emir did mention that Qatar is open for business and that the country is determined to come out of the crisis as a strong economic player; “We are opening our economy to initiatives, investments, production of food, medicine and ultimately to diversify our sources of income.”iii

The Emir has talked about diversifying the economy. This sounds like the right thing to do, but it is extremely difficult. The crisis right now serves as a catalyst for renewing efforts to diversify the economy, and move away from being too dependent on hydrocarbons. It may sound unlikely that Qatar will become the new Silicon Valley, but it is smart to diversify by moving away from hydrocarbons and increasing trading partners, but at the same time, because of Qatar’s size, it needs a realist economic plan.

What was said in the speech that can be realistic is Qatar wisdom to think about using its resources in a more useful manner that is in the interests of the Qatari people for the future.

Through Doha’s 2030 plan, Qatar has a roadmap on how they can accomplish their ambition of diversifying the economy. This plan from Doha allows Qatar to reduce its dependency on hydrocarbons and establish a balance between reserves and production. The Emir also convinced business leaders from around the world to mobilize a “business climate capable of attracting foreign funds and technologies and of encouraging national investments.”iv The Vision 2030 plan allows for Qatar to look towards the future and find solutions to not only improvements on diversifying the economy, but finding new ways to encourage businesses to invest in Qatar and encourage people to visit the country.

The Six Principles

The four bloc countries initially made the thirteen principles that pressured Qatar to make concessions to the bloc countries such as cutting ties with Iran, and shutting down Al Jazeera, but Qatar denied these concessions as a violation of their sovereignty. Instead, the Saudi-led group came up with the six principles. These six principles include:

1. Commitment to combat extremism and terrorism in all its forms and to prevent their financing or the provision of safe havens.

2. Prohibiting all acts of incitement and all forms of expression which spread, incite, promote or justify hatred and violence.

3. Full commitment to Riyadh Agreement 2013 and the supplementary agreement and its executive mechanism for 2014 within the framework of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) for Arab States.

4. Commitment to all the outcomes of the Arab-Islamic-US Summit held in Riyadh in May 2017.

5. To refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of States and from supporting illegal entities.

6. The responsibility of all States of international community to confront all forms of extremism and terrorism as a threat to international peace and security.v

Many people in the west, including the United States are satisfied with the direction Qatar is taking now that de-escalation is beginning between the Saudi-led bloc and Qatar. The U.S and the Europeans have seen Qatar as very cooperative and the support that Qatar had during the crisis was very minimal compared to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

More importantly, the GCC states must step away from terror finance, especially through the Wahabi ideology. The GCC has spent billions of dollars on countering terrorism, but the money going to DAESH and Jabat Al-Nusra has been through extortion coming from the Saudis and the Emiratis. Terror finance is an important topic for the GCC countries and Qatar made a wise choice by investing into education. We also need to negotiate on new ways to combat radicalism and put this issue to bed.

The Emir also made it clear that Qatar can change people’s minds, and give people hope for a better future against authoritarian oppression.

Qatar Weathers the Storm

The Gulf dispute is not only about terror finance, but it is about government security. The Saudis and the Emiratis have a similar concern to government security just like every country does around the world. But they believe that any support to the Muslim Brotherhood threatens their security. The Saudis have their own concerns about Al Jazeera such as criticism of authoritarianism, information sharing, as well as the non-hostile relations between Qatar and Iran. These are the real issues in play here. Another way to look at this dispute is that Qatar won! The Saudis and the Emiratis thought that over the first few days of the crisis that cutting diplomatic ties and blockading the country would change Qatar’s behavior in a way that pressures them to go along with the orders coming from Riyadh and Dubai, but Qatar was very resilient.

In addition, not only were the thirteen demands non-negotiable, but they were in violation of Qatar’s sovereignty. As a result, the Saudi-led bloc during the crisis was very unsuccessful and this might backfire on Riyadh going forward. However, this can also change Saudi Arabia’s behavior to stop interfering in the internal affairs of its neighbors, and hopefully, the GCC will be united again.

Notes:
i. “Sheikh Tamim: Any talks must respect Qatar’s sovereignty” July 22, 2017 Al Jazeera http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/07/sheikh-tamim-talks-respect-qatar-sovereignty-170721184815998.html
ii. Sheikh Tamim: Any talks must respect Qatar’s sovereignty” July 22, 2017 Al Jazeera http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/07/sheikh-tamim-talks-respect-qatar-sovereignty-170721184815998.html
iii. Shabina Khatri, “Qatar’s Emir issues own set of demands to end Gulf dispute” July 21, 2017 Doha News https://medium.com/dohanews/qatars-emir-issues-own-set-of-demands-to-end-gulf-dispute-21a6e9903dda
iv. “Qatar National Vision 2030” July 2008 Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics http://www.mdps.gov.qa/en/qnv1/pages/default.aspx
v. Taimur Khan, “Arab countries’ six principles for Qatar ‘a measure to restart the negotiation process’” July 19, 2017 The National https://www.thenational.ae/world/gcc/arab-countries-six-principles-for-qatar-a-measure-to-restart-the-negotiation-process-1.610314

By Chris Calton*

In a 1991 interview with Randy Paige about why drugs should be legalized, Milton Friedman said that the “main thing that bothers me about crack is not [that it’s addictive], it’s the crack babies, because that’s the real tragedy.”

Paige responded by saying, “as you know, we are already experiencing epidemic proportions of that. One out of every four babies going into one hospital, I can tell you, in Maryland is addicted.”

Ever since the mid-1980s, this perception of “crack babies” was accepted nearly without question throughout the country. If a mother smoked crack while pregnant, the child would be born addicted to crack and suffering from withdrawals, would be underweight, and would likely “have an IQ of perhaps 50.”

Furthermore, as Randy Paige said, crack babies were an epidemic. They were everywhere. It was a major, nation-wide problem. Even today, the notion that babies are born underweight and addicted to crack from the mother’s personal use while pregnant persists with hardly a critical thought.

The problem is, the “crack baby” is a complete myth.

The Origins of the Idea

For most of the twentieth century, cocaine was a relatively uncommon recreational drug. The major drugs were marijuana and heroin. In the 70s, it was seen as a drug used almost exclusively by wealthy white people, and the practice of “freebasing” – a way to smoke cocaine by cooking it with ether in a highly flammable process – had a quick rise and fall in popularity. In the 1980s, cocaine started getting more attention as the quantity of Colombian cocaine being imported into the country was driving down the price, and cocaine use was beginning to be associated with more than just upper-class parties and Wall Street yuppies.

In 1985, Newsweek ran a cover story entitled “Cocaine: The Evil Empire.” This story brought the cocaine trade into the national spotlight. Not long after, the media was looking for ways to capitalize on the fears being generated against the new menace.

The media jumped on the only study that, at the time, been published on prenatal cocaine exposure, which was conducted by Dr. Ira Chasnoff and published in the New England Journal of Medicine. In Dr. Chasnoff’s study, there seemed to be a possible link between cocaine and the “depression of interactive behavior” in newborns. The study only had a sample size of twenty-three women, and – even as Chasnoff himself admitted – it was far from perfect. In addition to the inadequate sample-size, a great many variables were not accounted for, such as the use of other substances.

On September 11, 1985, the CBS Evening News reported on Chasnoff’s study. Susan Spencer, the reporter who picked up the story, had an image filmed of a baby shaking, which she explained was a symptom of cocaine withdrawals due to the mother using cocaine while pregnant. These types of stories started spreading around the country, and the idea of the “cocaine baby” was born.

Only two months after CBS created the image of the “cocaine baby,” the New York Times ran their first story about crack cocaine. A substance that still was yet to be widely known throughout the country, crack was cheaper and more potent than traditional cocaine, which meant that it was perfect for the kind of “yellow journalism” that has helped craft the drug war narrative for the past century. CBS decided to repackage their original “cocaine baby” story. Now, they were “crack babies.”

By 1987, both crack and crack babies were familiar concepts for every person in America. According to another Newsweek cover story entitled “The Plague Among Us,” crack cocaine was “an epidemic” that was “as pervasive and dangerous in its way as the plagues of medieval times.” And nearly every baby born underweight, unhealthy, or suffering from any kind of tremors was a “crack baby,” regardless of what substances the mother may use. With this kind of loose definition, it’s no wonder that Paige was reporting that 1-in-4 babies born was a crack baby.

Ignoring the Science to Craft a Narrative

At the Emory University Medical School, a psychologist named Claire Coles had been studying the effects of prenatal exposure to drugs on infants for several years (in fact, Dr. Coles is still conducting such research at Emory today). At the time, she had only looked at alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana. She did not study the effects of heroin exposure, but this was only because she believed that infant heroin addiction from prenatal exposure was well settled, and she never felt a need to question the plausibility of a heroin-addicted infant.

But after the “crack baby” stories started sweeping the nation, she thought it seemed fishy. Cocaine is not addictive the way heroin is, she knew. Addicts don’t suffer from withdrawals because there is no chemical dependency established in cocaine use. Cocaine “addiction” is really just the product of psychological “reinforcement,” meaning that when you use it, it makes you want to continue to use more, but ceasing use of it does not cause withdrawals the way heroin does because withdrawals are the product of an actual chemical dependency. Furthermore, because cocaine was a stimulant, she reasoned, if there were withdrawal symptoms at all, it should manifest in a baby being abnormally sleepy. The jittery babies plastered all over the news were – if anything – heroin babies.

Coles had read Chasnoff’s study and originally thought little of it, but now she decided to read it again, and she noticed that some very important variables were not controlled for. The mothers in the study were undernourished. They had poor prenatal care. They were living in violent or abusive environments. More importantly to Coles’ own research, these mothers drank alcohol and smoked both tobacco and marijuana during their pregnancies. On what grounds could any legitimate conclusion be drawn linking the health problems of their babies to, specifically, cocaine?

Cole started incorporating cocaine into her own research. Not only is there nothing to suggest that babies inherit any kind of addiction to crack from their mother’s use, but she was unable to identify any link between cocaine or crack and a baby’s cognitive or physical health. “When you have a myth,” Cole said about the crack baby narrative, “it tends to linger for a long time.”

In a 1992 article, James Bennet and Thomas DiLorenzo published an article demonstrating that when other factors are accounted for, no statistical link between crack use and birth conditions remains. In fact, “the hysteria” about the crack babies, they note, “may convince many mothers that their children are indeed hopeless . . . [so] why bother with prenatal care?”1

When reporters would call Cole for her expert opinion on the crack baby epidemic, she would explain to them the problems with the myth. The reporters eventually stopped contacting her. Instead, they ran interviews with hospital employees, many of whom were not even part of the medical staff. The crack baby myth continued to grow, and the science contesting it was ignored.

About the author:
*Chris Calton is a Mises University alumnus and an economic historian. See his YouTube channel here.

Source:
This article was published by the MISES Institute.

Notes:
1. James T. Bennett and Thomas J. DiLorenzo, Official Lies: How Washington Misleads Us (Alexandria, VA: Groom Books, 1992)