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Syria: Deal Signed To Allow Russian Air Force To Stay For Almost 50 Years

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Russian President Vladimir Putin has endorsed a bill ratifying a protocol to the 2015 agreement between Moscow and Damascus regulating the deployment of the Russian Air Force in Syria for 49 years.

The protocol signed by Russia and Syria in January 2017 regulates issues related to the deployment of the Russian Air Force on Syrian territory as well as related to Russia’s exercise of jurisdiction over its military movable and immovable assets on Syrian territory. It also covers the measures needed to maintain the operation efficiency of the Russia Air Force.

Under the protocol, the Russian Air Force are allowed to stay on Syrian territory for 49 years with an option of automatically extending that arrangement for 25-year periods after this term expires.

The document, published on the Russian official legal information website, particularly says that the Syrian government is handing over a plot of land in the Latakia province, where the Khmeimim Air Base is located, over to Russia for its free use.

The bill ratifying the protocol was signed by Putin on Thursday, according to a Kremlin statement.

It was adopted by the Russian State Duma, the Lower House of the Russian Parliament, on July 14 and approved by the Senate five days later.

The Russian Air Force was deployed to Syria on September 30, 2015 at the request of the Syrian government as part of the operation aimed at fighting terrorist groups. The group was stationed at the Khmeimim Air Base.

Most Russian troops initially deployed to Syria were withdrawn in March 2016 after Putin said that the objectives of the five-month anti-terrorist operation in Syria were “generally accomplished.” At that time, Russia said it would keep a military presence at the port of Tartus and at the Khmeimim airbase to monitor the situation in the region and observe the implementation of ceasefire agreements.


Chinese Seal Major Romanian Energy Acquisition

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By Marian Chiriac

A Chinese company will acquire Romania’s main Black Sea refinery after Bucharest approved its purchase of a majority stake in Kazakh-based KMG International, which owns 48.1 per cent of Rompetrol Rafinare.

Romania on Thursday approved China Energy Company Limited’s purchase of a majority stake in KMG International, by which it will obtain control of the Romanian energy company Rompetrol Rafinare.

Kazahstan-based KMG International owns 48.1 per cent of Rompetrol Rafinare, with the Romanian state owning another 44.7 per cent. Other share holders hold the rest.

Rompetrol owns Romania’s biggest oil refinery and its second-biggest fuel distribution network.

“Completion of the transaction will create a solid foundation for … further expanding our activities in Eastern and Western Europe. The joint venture will be able to take advantage of the energy potential of Kazakhstan and China’s financial resources to expand its activities throughout the area of the global project, ‘One Belt – One Road’, Zhanat Tussupbekov, KMG International CEO, said in a press statement.

“Particular attention will be paid to projects in Romania – as the country where the main assets of the KMGI Group are located,” he added.

Last year, China Energy Company, CEFC, announced it wished to buy 51 per cent of KMG International for 680 million US dollars as part of China’s ambitious “One Belt – One Road” project.

Proposed in 2013 to promote expanding links between Asia, Europe and Africa, the project is due to pour billions of dollars into infrastructure investment. Broad on ambition, it is still short on specifics, however.

Analysts say it could be in Romania’s economic interest to be part of China’s push into Central and Eastern Europe.

“Romania is hoping to become a regional energy hub and any Chinese investment could help this. Unfortunately … Bucharest failed so far to be a trustworthy political and commercial partner for China,” journalist Sabina Fati said.

Romania is hungry for investment, but despite its economic improvements in recent years few investors have displayed much interest in Romanian energy or infrastructure projects, even if they are cheap and have good prospects.

In November 2013, Bucharest hosted a major trade forum between China and 16 Central and Eastern European nations. That time, Romania announced its interest in attracting Chinese investment in a project to add two reactors to country’s sole nuclear power plant, as well as in new thermal and hydroelectric power plants.

But none of the above-mentioned business deals has been concluded so far.

The Social Democrat-led govermment is now hoping to put Bucharest at the centre of Beijing’s European push.

“We have confidence and resolution to turn our friendship into practical outcomes and inject new vitality to bilateral ties,” Social Democrat leader Viorel Dragnea said early this month, following a meeting with Chinese officials. “We are not like previous governments that failed to keep their promises,” Dragnea added.

Is De-Democratization On Ascendancy? – Analysis

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By Kazi Anwarul Masud*

The election of Donald Trump, albeit democratically, but his continuing bellicosity with the fourth state and now his disenchantment with some of his cabinet members, daily tweets on foreign and domestic issues giving fodder for amusement to late night shows and the print and electronic media, US Senate investigation into Trump campaign and Russian connection, “secret” conversation with Vladimir Putin at the G20 dinner without an American interpreter, and scores of other misdemeanor by an American President in just about six months with an approval rating just above thirty percent, Trump’s distancing himself from long time allies and threats to NATO members to fulfill their defense commitment, his praising of North Korean dictator Kin Jung-un have placed the world in a quandary.

US foreign policy had its ups and downs with transition of power from President to President. Way back in 2012 Madeline Albright felt a tectonic shift had taken place with the change of guards from Clinton to Bush administration. Bush administration proved to be sinister, aggressive, and felt it could take unilateral military actions without fear of retaliation from the aggrieved or the international community.

This gung-ho attitude was reflected in the Doctrine of Pre-emption and Bush National Security Strategy of 2002. Popular perception that the NSS of 2006 would undergo a perceptible change towards multilateralism proved to be wrong. Lawrence Korb and Caroline Wadhams (Center for American Progress) argued that the 2006 NSS continued to confuse pre-emption with preventive war, emphasized the unachievable goal of “ending tyranny” throughout the world, and failed to make a realistic assessment of threat to the US and the Western world.

Bill Clinton left a prosperous and safer America. His efforts to sincerely try to solve the Middle East crisis reflected in the historical handshake by Yasser Arafat with Yitzhak Rabin, or Jimmy Carter’s historical get-together between Anwar Sadat and Meacham Begin on US soil will always be remembered. President Reagan’s request to Mikhail Gorbachev to tear down the Berlin Wall was not heeded but it was not followed by American military prowess. Neither did Eisenhower and Johnson employ military power to prevent Soviet Union’s military interventions in Hungary and Poland in 1956 and then in Czechoslovakia in 1968.

President Bush on the other hand remained totally committed to what he called for eradication of “Islamic fanaticism”. It is not known whether Bush administration had made a cost-benefit analysis of the doctrine of pre-emption before embarking on what is now commonly realized as an adventure in Iraq that turned costly both financially and materially. President Bush received encouragement from people like Melvin Laird, US Defense Secretary at the fag end of the Vietnam war, who urged President Bush that Iraq war must carry the message that the US was fighting in Iraq to bring about freedom and liberty to those “yet unconverted” to western values, little realizing that the Orient was no longer an Antarctica of freedom nor was wedded to the values of communal benefit at the expense of individual liberty or what is touted as Asian values as opposed to Western values.

By contrast Kim Holmes and James Carafano (defining the Obama Doctrine, Its Pitfalls, and How to Avoid Them September 1, 2010) have noted President Barack Obama’s declaration “ that America would reach out to other countries as “an equal partner” rather than as the “exceptional” nation that many before him had embraced; that “any world order that elevates one nation or group of people over another will inevitably fail”; and that “[o]ur problems must be dealt with through partnership” and “progress must be shared.”(American primacy in international affairs-INDEPENDENT-03-02-2012Top of Form).

Donald Trump’s America First slogan is contrary to the equal partnership practised by Barack Obama and the ones before him though the world acknowledged American leadership of the free world and adopted varied forms of the Washington Consensus, a set of broadly free market economic ideas supported by the Bretton Woods Institutions, the US and Europe. Trump’s ideas, sometimes conflicting, have the potentiality of pushing the global trade towards protectionism which has been found favor with those trying to protect domestic jobs as free trade and globalization wins over the less efficient industries in many developing countries. Additionally the global meltdown of 2008 brought into sharp focus the opposition to the Washington Consensus and certainly rejection of Milton Friedman and Chicago School’ s prescription for amelioration of the global financial difficulties.

While any reduction of US-Russian tension is good for world peace and their collaboration both in and out of the UN Security council is welcome Donald Trump’s story of Russian meddling in the last US Presidential elections and her alleged attempts to interfere in the European elections are unwelcome developments. Camaraderie between the leaders of the two great powers makes one wonder if one can imagine a brake in Samuel Huntington’s waves of transition to democracy that he described in his book “The Third Wave”. According to Samuelson there have been three basic periods of democratization that have occurred throughout the world throughout history.

The First Wave — during the 19th century, democracy was begun in Western Europe and North America but lost momentum in the interwar period between WWI and WWII when a number of dictators rose to power.

The Second Wave — began after WWII and faded out around the 60s – 70s.

The Third Wave — began in the mid-1970s and is still continuing today. Some experts have associated the collapse of several dictatorships in the Middle East and North Africa, phenomenon known as Arab Spring, with the events which followed the fall of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. The similarity between the two phenomena inspired hope for a fourth wave of democratization. But then democratization process is not an unstoppable process. Slow decrease in poverty level, increase in the gap between the rich and the poor, both in the developing and the developed countries, at geometric progression have produced a rage among the dispossesed and marginalized segment of the economy.

Roger Cohen wrote in New York Times that for at least a decade, accelerating since the crash of 2008, fears and resentments had been building over the impunity of elites, the dizzying disruption of technology, the influx of migrants and the precariousness of modern existence. In Western societies, for too long, there had been no victories, no glory and diminishing certainties. Wars were waged; nobody knew how they could be won. Their wounds festered. The distance between metropolis and periphery grew into a cultural chasm. Many things became unsayable; even gender became debatable. Truth blurred, then was sidelined, in an online tribal cacophony. Jobs went. Inequality thrust itself in your face. What the powerful said and the lives people lived were so unrelated that politics looked increasingly like a big heist.)……. Democracies, it is clear, have not been delivering to the less privileged, who were disenfranchised or discarded in the swirl of technology’s advance. A lot of thought is now needed to find ways to restore faith in liberal, free-market societies; to show that they can be fairer and more equitable and offer more opportunities across the social spectrum ( December 5 The Rage of 2016).

In the same vein Francis Fukuyama wrote (FRANCIS FUKUYAMA-DEC. 6, 2016 The Dangers of Disruption) of disruption caused by “The shift of manufacturing from the West to low labor-cost regions has meant that Asia’s rising middle classes have grown at the expense of rich countries’ working-class communities. And from a cultural standpoint, the huge movement of ideas, people and goods across national borders has disrupted traditional communities and ways of doing business. For some this has presented tremendous opportunity, but for others it is a threat”.

The advent of nationalism over globalization has seen Brexit in Great Britain, assertion by Hungarian Prime Minister that his country sought to be an illiberal state; Turkey’s Erdogan after foiling a coup has assumed immense power and has jailed thousands of people of alleged complicity with the coup. Equally some suspect that India’s Narendra Modi and Japan’s Prime Minister Shinjo Abe, both democratically elected, are quietly supporting actions of intolerance. In the case of India Harish Khare (THE WIRE A Dangerous Arrogance of Power Is Setting InBy Harish Khare on 14/07/2017) apprehends that in the absence of three other institutions of democracy- cabinet, bureaucracy and media- stand emasculated with timidity and opportunism and with the change of guard at Rashtrapati Bhavan Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his advisers could not take Pranab Mukherjee as “rubber stamp”, an option Harish Khare feels is now open to the Prime Minister. It however remains to be seen how far such a fear would come to pass.

India with its long tradition of vibrant opposition and use of democratic rights from grass roots would be a different kettle of fish than many other countries. This divisiveness, a form taking the shape of nationalism, could be traced to religion as many have taken Samuel Huntington’s Clash of Civilization literally. As David Brooks wrote in the New York Times (NYT Huntington’s Clash Revisited David Brooks March 3 2011) the Islamic civilization is the most troublesome. People in the Arab world do not share the general suppositions of the Western world. Their primary attachment is to their religion, not to their nation-state. Their culture is inhospitable to certain liberal ideals, like pluralism, individualism and democracy. Huntington correctly foresaw that the Arab strongman regimes were fragile and were threatened by the masses of unemployed young men. He thought these regimes could fall, but he did not believe that the nations would modernize in a Western direction… Even if decrepit regimes fell (the Arab governments) there would still be a fundamental clash of civilizations between Islam and the West.

The Western nations would do well to keep their distance from Muslim affairs. The more the two civilizations intermingle, the worse the tensions will be. Naturally Huntington’s thesis caused a fierce debate. In a critique late Edward Said (The Clash of Ignorance By Edward W. Said OCTOBER 4, 2001) WROTE “ In this belligerent kind of thought, he relies heavily on a 1990 article by the veteran Orientalist Bernard Lewis, whose ideological colors are manifest in its title, “The Roots of Muslim Rage.” …The carefully planned and horrendous, pathologically motivated suicide attack and mass slaughter by a small group of deranged militants has been turned into proof of Huntington’s thesis”.

Princeton Professor Charles Boix disagrees with the religious explanation for the lack of democracy. He points out that the large Muslim population in India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and till recently in Turkey who live in partly free (as described by Freedom House) democratic dispensation. Boix instead argues that poverty, corruption, bad governance and terrorism are responsible for the decline of democracy in many countries. No less important, in the views of Princeton Professor and co-editor of Dissent magazine Michael Walzer, is the absolute or periodic arrest of the rich and the powerful who become more powerful as they become richer under a façade of nominal democracy where money can buy votes. It would therefore be naïve to think that poor countries can suddenly be adorned with democracy just because of the end of colonialism (the colonialists being mostly developed democratic nations) without the requisite countervailing institutions supportive of democracy.

Though India for a variety of reasons have proved to be an exception, the world has to be on guard that the recent and yet to be unfolding events do not foretell a saga of decline of democracy in the future.

*The writer is a former Secretary and Ambassador of Bangladesh.

War On Terror: Will It Emerge As Ménage A Trois Between Washington, Beijing And New Delhi? – Analysis

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The notion of Ménage a Trois is one of the three perennial rudiments of the strategic triangle in International Relations (IR). The other two being the Stable Marriage and Romantic Triangle, which were frequently applied by Lowell Dittmer to analyze the various aspects of the US-Soviet-China interactions in the triangular framework during the Cold War period.

However, for Dittmer, the concept of “strategic triangle” although applied to the relationship between these three Cold War rivals, is not a concept from area studies based on the geo-cultural peculiarities of particular time and place. Rather, it is a Social Science term based upon the logical, quaisi-geometrical relationship among political actors in the international arena. In the post-Cold War era, it is witnessed that Asia once again settled into a strategic triangle, however, this time involving the U.S., China and India. Broadly speaking, the concept of Ménage a Trois is applied to a situation where the three important independent international actors (states) have mutually positive relationship and all of them are linked together by common endeavors.

Here this kind of strategic triangle is applied to the trilateral relationship between China, India and the United States because in the contemporary world order which is characterized globalization and complex interdependence, the levels of mutual dependence has become so perennial to each of them that a trilateral cooperation on the issues where their interests overlap can yield win-win outcomes. It is observed that there is vast foray of arenas (more pertinently relating to the security issues) where the interests of the trios are at odds with each other and which is a constant source of friction between them.

Conversely, the three powers also held identical and overlapping views on a number of global issues such as climate change, nuclear proliferation, maintaining international financial stability and facing the common threat emanating from the global terrorism. These are the issues which threatens each and every state on this planet without any geographical considerations.

In this article, a brief analysis is made to answer the critical question; will the global terrorism and especially the war on terrorism in Afghanistan bind Washington, Beijing and New Delhi together at a time when the competitive elements in their relationship are assuming new dimensions? This question assumes wider significance in the context that all the three states are facing the menace of terrorism in one way or the other. Moreover, as there exists deep strategic distrust between the trios especially between the two dyads i.e., China-India and the U.S.-China, it is expected that the cooperation on this common threat (terrorism) can reduce the competitive and conflictual elements in their bilateral and trilateral interactions.

Immediately after the twin tower terrorist attacks on the American soil on September 11, 2001, the three states reached an unprecedented consensus that the menace of terrorism poses a serious threat not only to their respective states but also to the global peace and stability. Since then, the three states have recurrently reiterated their resolve to eliminate this nuisance with combined endeavors.

It is due to this mutual understanding that the relationship between China, India and the United States has improved a lot since then. For example, in case of China and the U.S. the counter terrorism cooperation has improved their relationship to a great extent. Four years after the American catastrophe unleashed by terrorist attacks in which some three thousand innocent lives were lost, the U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick acknowledged that, “China and the United States can do more together in the global fight against terrorism” after “a good start”, in his policy speech that called on China to be a “responsible stake holder” in the world.

More than a decade, thereafter, on March 24, 2014 at the sidelines of Nuclear Security Summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that he appreciated Obama’s condemnation of terrorism in all forms, and China is willing to work with all the countries, including the United States, to fight terrorism. These two statements from the two highest officials reflect the consistency in their approach to deal with the threat of terrorism.

Similarly, during the same period, the counter-terrorism cooperation between India and the U.S. has also witnessed an upward trajectory. For instance, in the post 9/11 period, Washington and New Delhi intensified their cooperation in the areas of law enforcement including programs developed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) and the Diplomatic Security Anti-Terrorism Assistance (DSATA).

Furthermore, the Indo-U.S. Counter-Terrorism Joint Working Group (CTJWG) emerged one of the crucial means for sharing of information and intelligence, devising anti-terrorism programs and other areas of mutual concern.

Beijing and New Delhi, on the other hand, has also vowed to work together for eliminating the menace of terrorism. On 21 November, 2015 while issuing a Joint Statement, the two Asian giants agreed to enhance cooperation in combating international terrorism through (a) coordinating positions on anti-terrorism endeavors at bilateral and multilateral levels, (b) exchanging experiences on anti-hijacking, hostage situations and other terrorism related crimes, (c) exchanging information on terrorist groups and their linkages.

The need for coordination and cooperation between New Delhi and Beijing on counter terrorism arises from the fact that China’s Xinjiang province and Indian state of Kashmir are infested with separatist movements. As the Global Times,(Chinese daily) stated in one of its editorials”…separatists in Xinjiang, bordering disputed Kashmir, are believed by the Indian government to have certain links with terrorists in Kashmir – a hotbed of terrorists that India has blamed for attacks”.

Being geographically in proximity with each other, India and China realize the need to weed-off this threat with joint endeavors and also in collaboration with other important states particularly the United States. It is observed, therefore, the three states held the identical interest in fighting terrorism.

The trilateral cooperation between these three states can be best illustrated in Afghanistan. Since the US-led War on Terror in Afghanistan, the situation still remains quite gruesome. More pertinently, Taliban has been regaining control most of the areas in Afghanistan and their resurgence poses a serious threat to the regional peace and stability. A report prepared by UN Security Council in 2014 notes that “insurgent groups (and) international terrorists…took advantage of the protracted political and electoral crisis, to mount major assault around the country”.

Although Washington, Beijing and New Delhi have their own interests and strategies when it comes to Afghanistan, the current turmoil has immense potential to affect the security interests of the latter two given their close geographical affinity to Afghanistan.

It can be discerned from the fact that the instability in Afghanistan can intensify the activities of East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) which is a violent separatist group founded by Uighur militants in China’s Xinjiang province. Likewise, the Afghan instability also threatens India’s northern areas especially the state of Jammu and Kashmir which is geographically close to Afghanistan.

It is for this reason that both Asian powers in collaboration with the United States are actively involved in the reconstruction of Afghanistan and assisting the Afghan government in its peace initiatives. In this regard, New Delhi has committed to provide US$2 billion in aid for the reconstruction of Afghanistan. Besides, it has also been offering scholarships to Afghan students, training Afghan civil servants and members of law enforcement agencies.

Similarly, Beijing is also involved in various programs related to development and security in Afghanistan. So for as multilateral initiatives are concerned, the three countries are actively involved in Afghanistan’s recovery and stability through venues such as the ‘Istanbul Process’ (known as Heart of Asia). The ‘Istanbul Process’, of which New Delhi and Beijing are active members and the United States is supporting country outside the region, is playing critical role in a number of areas such as forging consensus among countries in the region, advancing cooperation among them on the challenges that Afghanistan faces, and promoting peaceful reconstruction of Afghanistan.

In addition to the ‘Istanbul Process’, China and India also play an important role through SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) since India (along with Pakistan) became full member of this organization on July 2015. The security cooperation among the SCO members is rooted in a shared strategic need to contain three forces – terrorism, national separatism, and religious extremism because these factors directly affects the member countries including Beijing and New Delhi.

Due to these overlapping interests on terrorism between China, India and the US, it is often asserted that such cooperation will led to Ménage a Trois or win-win interactions which will ultimately reduce their political issues. However, when analyzed and examined minutely it is observed that in spite of commonality of interests there are also divergences relating to perceptions, methods and attitudes while dealing with this problem.

It can be discerned from the fact that New Delhi has always maintained critical attitude on Washington’s inability to bring pressure on Pakistan to stop pushing militants into the Indian side of Kashmir. Indian officials are frustrated that Washington has not taken required measures to coerce Islamabad to dismantle Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and other Indian-centric terrorist organization’s infrastructure on the soil of Pakistan.

Although, the United States realizes the danger that LeT poses to regional stability, it still does not meet Indian expectations of placing it on equal footing with other terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda.

In the Sino-Indian dyad, the two states also hold divergent views when the issues of terrorism are related to Pakistan. For instance, China has shielded Pakistan several times by putting a technical hold on India’s demand for UN Security Council to take action against Mumbai attack mastermind Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, Hizbul Mujahedeen Chief Syed Salahuddin and Lashkar-e-Toyaba leader Hafeez Sayed which are roaming free on Pakistani soil.

Likewise, Beijing and Washington may have many reasons to cooperate on the issue of terrorism, but they have also different perceptions relating to the various aspects of the same problem. Washington considers Uighur and Tibetan movements in China as legitimate protests and their activities are not treated as acts of terrorism by Americans. However, China perceives these movements as illegitimate and threat to its security and territorial integrity.

In Afghanistan also, the three states are also at odds with each other despite immense rhetoric for cooperation. For instance, though the presence of US-led international forces stationed in Afghanistan has been advantageous to China by restricting the movements of ETIM Uighur militants along the Sino-Afghan border, but at the same time, China does not like the US military presence close to its south western borders.

Similarly, while Washington has been appreciative of New Delhi’s reconstruction initiatives in Afghanistan but does not want to antagonize Pakistan at the growing influence of New Delhi in Kabul.

For the United States, Pakistan’s cooperation in bringing stability in Afghanistan is more crucial than India because Islamabad wields significant influence on Taliban. Similarly, China would like to work with Pakistan than with India in bringing peace and stability in Afghanistan. It can be reflected from recent peace talks between China-Pakistan-Afghanistan-US, which makes up the ‘Quadrilateral Coordination Group’. This four-member group excludes India, despite the fact that New Delhi is an important regional actor. It reflects the divergence of approach and perceptions in tackling the same problem like terrorism. Thus it is observed that though the trios share identical interests in eliminating the menace of terrorism, but this overlapping has not been sufficient to promote a Ménage a Trois between Washington, Beijing and New Delhi.

*Dr. Mehraj Uddin Gojree, Assistant Professor, Dept. of Higher Education, J&K. Email. mehrajriyn@gmail.com

A Remarkable Book For Muslims And Jews – Book Review

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A collection of 31 articles by Rabbi Allen S. Maller about Jewish-Muslim connections, previously published on Islamic web sites, has just come out in paperback. Entitled “Judaism and Islam as Synergistic Monotheisms”; it is available for $15 on Amazon.

Rabbi Maller has knowledge of Judaism and Islam. As a Reform Rabbi he tried to understand how the Qur’an and Prophet Muhammad established relations with people of the Book and why some practices of Orthodox Jews were criticized in the Qur’an.

Rabbi Maller states that Reform Rabbis are closer to Islam today than to Orthodox Rabbis. Indeed he says, “I think of myself as a Reform Rabbi and a Muslim Jew.

“Actually I am a Muslim Jew i.e. a faithful Jew submitting to the will of God, because I am a Reform Rabbi. As a Rabbi I am faithful to the covenant that God made with Abraham – the first Muslim Jew, and I submit to the commandments that God made with the people of Israel at Mount Sinai.

“As a Reform Rabbi I believe that Jewish spiritual leaders should modify Jewish tradition as social and historical circumstances change and develop. I also believe we should not make religion difficult for people to practice.

“These are lessons that prophet Muhammad taught 12 centuries before the rise of Reform Judaism in the early 19th century. Reform Jews are the largest of the Jewish denominations in the U.S A.”

From a reformist Jewish perspective he analyzed some hadiths (words of the Prophet Muhammad) and tried to establish commonalities between the two religions. Rabbi Maller gave many examples which indicate similarities between Islam and Judaism.

It is remarkable that Rabbi Maller even approached a religious text that criticize some practices and traditions of Orthodox Jews with sympathy, and tried to get lessons from them. With this approach, the author represents the moderate way of scholarship and well balanced interpretation of religious texts.

*Dr. Recep Dogan is a prominent Imam, Muslim scholar, prolific author and a respected community activist in Australia who completed his PhD in the Islamic Studies Department, Philosophy of Religion at University of Ankara.

Show More Peace And Less Conflict – OpEd

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By Jonathan Power*

The most peaceful countries in the world are Iceland, Portugal, Austria, New Zealand and Denmark, according to the new Global Peace Index, in a new 136-page report, published by the Institute for Economics and Peace in Sydney, Australia. The most violent are Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and South Sudan.

Seen from a spaceship the most violent ones appear more or less clustered in a corner of the earth. It’s not that the rest of the globe is at peace but even where there is fighting there is not the wholesale destruction of cities that we see every day on TV, as, for example, when the cameras follow the multi-sided civil war in Syria. Indeed, violence away from these five countries is localised. Nowhere else does it consume whole societies. The fickle eye of television needs to show more peace and less conflict if it is to project a balanced picture.

There is spasmodic fighting in the Congo, Mali, Nigeria and Somalia in Africa. In Asia there are the Muslim rebellions in Kashmir, southern Thailand, the Philippines and Myanmar. Israel and the Palestinians may appear to edge to the brink of war from time to time but the heavy violence when it comes dissipates these days after a week or two. There is no permanent Intifada which at one time looked likely.

In the Americas, both north and south, and the Caribbean there is no widespread fighting to speak of. There is the appalling gang violence in El Salvador, the astronomical murder rate in Honduras and, alongside the truce, still some pockets of guerrilla fighting in Colombia. Overall, South America is the most improved part of the world.

In the U.S. the murder rate and organised criminality is unacceptably high, even though in most big cities – Chicago is the biggest exception – the murder rate has declined over the last decade, probably because of better policing and the spread over the last 30 years in the availability of abortions to poor women who don’t have the wherewithal or the stable family life to bring up their sons to be non-violent.

The European Union is the most peaceful region in the world, although there are countries – Poland is the worst – where the intensity of organised internal conflict and the likelihood of violent demonstrations suggest the danger of a falling-back.

This grand peace has a lot to do with the profound desire to avoid another world war. During the twentieth century Europe was the most violent part of the world- not surprising since war has been practiced over the millennia, more than any other part of the world. The other factor that gives peace such deep foundations is the European Union. It was ex British Prime Minister David Cameron who warned during the foolish Brexit campaign that a “leave” vote might lead to war in Europe again. This may be overstating it but it wasn’t as ridiculous an observation as many have made out.

The world over there is a lessening in political terror – such things as extra-judicial killings, imprisonment without trial and torture- except in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa and the Middle East.

Last year deaths from terrorism decreased by 10%. This is the most important trend of all, one that has been almost totally ignored by the world’s media, although in fairness where terrorism has increased it is in the parts of the world with the most powerful and far-reaching media – Europe and North America – which inevitably focus on the terrorism at home.

Still, as is wittily but truthfully said, the locals are more likely to be killed by falling off a ladder or babies drowning in the bath than by a terrorist attack. Deaths caused by terrorism in Western countries account for less than 2% of all deaths from terrorism worldwide.

In most of the world violent crime has decreased, as has the number of homicides. Military expenditure as a percentage of national income has gone down. In the US, under President Barack Obama, US military operations abroad were significantly wound down.

South America is the continent that in recent years has exhibited the most positive changes. Argentina, Peru, Paraguay and Guyana have led the way. Eight of the eleven countries in South America have improved their levels of peace. In contrast, in Africa political instability, after years of improvement, has got worse. In Asia, Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan, the latter long riven by the violence of Muslim extremists, have improved their level of peacefulness.

In sum, if one excludes the Middle East, South Sudan and Afghanistan, the world is as peaceful as it was a decade ago. The Cassandra’s have it wrong. We are not living in the best of times – that was the period immediately following on the end of the Cold War. But we are certainly a long, long, way from the worst of times.

*Note: For 17 years Jonathan Power authored “Like Water on Stone- the History of Amnesty International” (Penguin). He was a foreign affairs columnist for the International Herald Tribune. He has forwarded this and his previous Viewpoints for publication in IDN-INPS. Copyright: Jonathan Power.

The Rise And Challenges Of Afghan IDPs Beyond The Launch Of IDP Policy – OpEd

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Afghanistan has one of the world’s largest populations in conflict-induced internal displacement. Following the withdrawal of international troops in 2014, the country faced the worst security situation. This has not only raised poverty and unemployment in Afghanistan, but also caused a dramatic increase in internal displacement.

According to UNOCHA, the number of IDPs rose from 196,000 in 2014 to 654,000 in 2016, which indicates a dramatic increase.1 Due to lack of security, poor economic and political environment, IDPs have never been without challenges in Afghanistan. And many among the IDPs have been displaced several times, and have become ever more vulnerable.

To address the needs and fulfill the humanitarian rights of the IDPs, the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GoIRA) together with the civil society and the international community launched a long-awaited national IDP policy in 2014. This article tries to identify and discuss (if) any improvements made plus the remaining challenges of the IDPs in the period since the policy was launched. To do so, in May 2017, 30 interviews conducted with the IDPs in the capital, Kabul, where the IDPs from different regions of Afghanistan are living plus an interview with the Director of Media and Public Relation of Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation (MoRR) of Afghanistan.

Brief overview of Afghanistan IDP Policy

Afghanistan has one of the world’s largest populations in protracted displacement but its national policy on internal displacement was launched for the first time in 2014. This policy was prepared based on the Afghanistan Constitution – aimed to protect and uphold the rights of the IDPs as Afghan citizens to prevent or end displacement inside the country with the support of civil society, humanitarian and development partners, and NGOs.

According to the policy, the rights of IDPs are to: freedom of movement and residence, adequate housing including security of tenure and in a suitable location, livelihood, adequate standard of living including water, food and cloths; health care; protection of the family; education; freedom of expression and access to information; participatory rights including rights to vote.

However, the policy was launched in a year where the country was in a political turmoil due to the presidential election result, and soon after, a new administration – the National Unity Government (NUG) was established. Furthermore, at the same year the international troops left Afghanistan and the security situation deteriorated, foreign aid declined, and the number of IDPs significantly increased. These political and security transitions stalled the implementation of the policy by all the stakeholders.

There are several key stakeholders for IDP Policy implementation but without their commitment and collaboration it’s impossible to bring optimistic change in the lives of the displaced people. MoRR is the main responsible ministry for preparing plan and to coordinate the policy and policy implementation with other line ministries/authorities, civil society and international community in the country.

They are responsible to create the conditions based on three durable solutions cited in the policy: (i) return of IDPs to their place of origin, (ii) local integration in the place of displacement, and (iii) and settlement of IDPs elsewhere in the country. Durable solutions must be voluntary, safe and dignified decisions of IDPs as Afghan citizens. The policy is a comprehensive strategic tool towards improving the living conditions of the displaced.

The Current Challenges of IDPs

Today figures indicate that in total there are more than 1.5 million people internal displaced as a result of conflict and violence in Afghanistan. Of them, more than half are children and adolescents; therefore, they suffer more risks compared to adults when they are displaced from their home communities.

More broadly, not only the children and adolescents but all IDPs – men and women are affected differently with needs, vulnerabilities and protections risks. The IDPs fled with nothing but their lives due to fighting from all sides – the Taliban, ISIS (also known as Daesh), the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and the U. S. military. Today the main challenges of the IDPs in Afghanistan are lack of: adequate shelter, access to health and education facilities, food, sanitation, potable water, and employment opportunities.

The cited challenges have jeopardized the well-being and dignity of the IDPs. For example, in the east of Afghanistan the ANSF war against Taliban and ISIS backed by U.S air power forced thousands of people to leave their homes, farms and livestock. When interviewed, IDPs said we left everything in our villages but till now neither the Afghan government nor the international community has provided us adequate livelihoods. Thus, now our children are begging on the streets or washing cars for money and food.2

Masoom the representative of IDPs from the south region (Helmand, Kandahar and Urozgan provinces) explained that about 5000-6000 people only from the south region are living in mud huts in Charahi Qamber camp in Kabul and the humanitarian aid by the international organizations, the UN, local foundations and the Afghan government is not sufficient and they are mostly on season base – in the winter season. Massom added that there had been no real improvement in our situation in regard to access to shelter, health, education and food over the past three years. Raz Muhammad the representative of Kabul’s Chaman-e-Babrak IDP settlement stated, “Food is a luxury here, no one can afford it. We mostly live off bread or spoiled vegetables from the market.” 3

Figures indicate that majority of IDPs live in urban environments of their countries in order to have better live. In Afghanistan, a large number of IDPs are informally settled in the big cities, especially in Kabul for economic and other reasons. Living in the cities is not without challenges for the IDPs because most of them are from the rural areas, therefore, they are unused to city life and unable to find job if not by agricultural. Consequently, the IDPs cannot ensure the basic survival of their families. And the government does not have any employment and income generating projects for them. Surprisingly, lacks of action for this challenge can encourage and give the opportunities to the armed groups to recruit among the IDPs, who are desperate to make sure the basic survival of their families.

Among others, according to the IDP Policy, IDPs have the right of adequate housing too. Unexpectedly, so far neither the government nor the international community has built any formal camp having all basic services for the IDPs. This is why throughout the country IDPs are living in informal settlements under tent, houses, which are made of mud, scant access to clean water and latrines, which indicates humanitarian crisis.

When interviewed, the IDPs complained that every year about 25-30 of their children or old people are died because of cold weather with no heating facilities. The government provides firewood for heating purpose only one or two times during the winter but that is not enough.4 The IDPs in Charahi Qamber explained that even President Ashraf Ghani visited our camp in 2014 during his campaign, he promised to prioritize land allocation and the issues of IDPs as a whole but so far we do not see any actions.

A woman living with her daughter in Minarets camp in Herat province said “Even an animal would not live in this hut but we have to… I would prefer to be in prison rather than in this place, at least in prison I would not have to worry about food and shelter.”5

One of the key reasons that development aid is not poured into camps and formal settlements with adequate housing, land, school, clinic etc are not established is because it would encourage people to stay into the camps permanently. Also, this perhaps draws more people into camps. On the other hand, the majority of IDPs want to remain where they are and integrate locally. When interviewed, the IDPs said we don’t have the confidence to return to our home communities and we have lost everything we had, therefore, we want land/adequate housing in Kabul and would not leave our camps at any circumstance even if we are killed.

Why the IDPs situation worsened since the policy adoption

The national policy on internal displacement which has the support of Afghan government and all other stakeholders is failed to fulfill the needs and rights of Afghan IDPs. The current challenges of the IDPs undoubtedly indicate that since the launch of the policy the situation of the IDPs have been worsened. And they are living on the brink of survival. This fact was also admitted by the MoRR.6

In a nutshell, the GoIRA and all the key stakeholders are failed to bring the policy into reality because of several interlinked reasons. The key ones are: (1) deteriorated security situation across the country which dramatically increased internal displacement; (2) decline of foreign aid since the withdrawal of international troops; (3) lack of political will of the government, generally weak administrative institutions, paralysed by corruption, lack of technical capacity and budget within the government, particularly within MoRR at national and provincial level; (4) political and constitutional tensions within the NUG as result of which the policy was not considered as a priority; (5) poor coordination between line ministries/authorities and their coordination with international organizations operating in Afghanistan; and (6) more broadly, the Afghan government together with the international community have not devoted adequate attention or resources to addressing humanitarian needs and legitimate rights of IDPs who are living without sufficient access to basic living standard. The failure constitutes violations of the human rights in Afghanistan within the presence of several of national and international humanitarian organizations.

Afghanistan which is addicted to foreign aid doesn’t have enough of a budget to overcome its all internal and external problems including the problems of the IDPs mentioned above. In sum, due to the aforementioned reasons, the situations of the IDPs who are the victims of the war in the country are worsened beyond the launch of national policy on internal displacement in 2014. In order to meet the urgent needs and human rights of the IDPs or end IDPs crisis, or avoid further increase of IDPs, the GoIRA and all the stakeholders should take into consideration the following important points:

The international community/key international organizations (e.g., UNHCR, World Food Programme, International Committee of Red Cross, United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, International Migration Organisation, among others) should enhance the capacity of MoRR and provide enough development/humanitarian aid; lend weight and expertise to them for the implementation of the IDP Policy.

The NUG must put the implementation of IDP Policy as a priority. And make sure that sufficient resources are devoted across the government to implement the policy along with the stakeholders, properly and timely.

Afghanistan, the international community, and the civil society together must act immediately to end the IDP crisis in the country through focusing durable solutions, before it is too late.

Most recently, the United Nations stated that “Afghanistan remains one of the most dangerous, and most violent, crisis ridden countries in the world.”7 Therefore, the international community and the Afghan government should further beef up their efforts for sustainable security across the country. This will not only stop more people to displace but will also give confidence to the current conflict induced IDPs to return to their home communities.

*About the authors:
Sayed Nasrat
is a former researcher at Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development of Afghanistan, and Integrity Watch Afghanistan. sayed.nasrat2@gmail.com

Abdul Tamim Karimi is policy analyst at Ministry of Finance of Afghanistan. tamim_afghan4@hotmail.com

The authors hold an MS in International Cooperation Policy from Ritsumikan Asia Pacific University (APU), Japan.

1 UNOCHA (2016) ‘Afghanistan: Humanitarian Dashboard’, https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/system/files/documents/files/afg_humanitarian_dashboard_december_2016.pdf
2 Interview with IDPs from Nangarhar province living in Kabul.
3 Interview with Massom, representative of IDPs from South region of Afghanistan, Charahi Qamber IDPs camp, Kabul.
4 Interview with IDPs, Charahi Qamber and Chaman-e-Babrak settlements, Kabul.
5 Amnesty International (2016) ‘My Children Will Die This Winter’. Amnesty International Ltd Peter Benenson House, 1 Easton Street London WC1X 0DW, UK
6 Interview with the Media and Public Relation Director of Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation, Kabul
7 UN (2017) ‘ Thousands of Afghan children face acute malnutrition amid ‘unprecedented’ displacement – UN’, UN News Centre, http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=55929#.WSdw_-uGPIV

Circles In Sand Reveal Boating Damage To Marine Diodiversity

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The findings of a study by Swansea and Cardiff University scientists highlights the need for boating activities along the UK’s beautiful coastlines to be conducted in a more environmentally friendly manner.

Seagrass meadows are an important marine habitat in support of our fisheries and commonly reside in shallow sheltered embayments typical of the locations that provide an attractive option for mooring boats. Research led by scientists at Swansea University provides evidence for how swinging boat moorings have damaged seagrass meadows throughout the UK (and globally) and create lifeless halos within the seagrass. The creation of these halos devoid of seagrass fragments the meadow and reduces its support for important marine biodiversity.

The seagrass Zostera marina (known as eelgrass) is extensive across the northern hemisphere, forming critical fisheries habitat and creating efficient long-term stores of carbon in sediments. This is the first research to have quantified this impact on eelgrass.

The study “Rocking the Boat: Damage to Eelgrass by Swinging Boat Moorings”, was led by Richard Unsworth and Beth Williams at Swansea University where it formed the basis of Beth’s MSc thesis. The research was conducted in conjunction with Benjamin Jones and Dr Leanne Cullen-Unsworth of Project Seagrass and the Sustainable Places Research Institute, Cardiff University has been published in the Open Access journal Frontiers in Plant Science.

Lead author Dr Richard Unsworth, said; “In the present study we examined swinging chain boat moorings in seagrass meadows across a range of sites in the United Kingdom to determine whether such moorings have a negative impact on the seagrass Zostera marina at the local and meadow scale.”

“We provide conclusive evidence from multiple sites throughout the UK that Z. marina is damaged by swinging chain moorings leading to a direct loss of at least 6 ha of United Kingdom seagrass. Each swinging chain mooring was found to result in the loss of 122 m2 of seagrass. Importantly loss was found to be restricted to the area surrounding the mooring and the impact did not appear to translate to a meadow scale. This loss of United Kingdom seagrass from boat moorings is small but significant at a local scale. This is because it fragments existing meadows and ultimately reduces their resilience to other stressors (e.g. storms, anchor damage and poor water quality).”

“Boat moorings are prevalent in seagrass globally and it is likely this impairs their ecosystem functioning and resilience. Given the extensive ecosystem service value of seagrasses in terms of factors such as carbon storage and fish habitat such loss is of cause for concern”.

“Our research highlights the need for boating activities in and around sensitive marine habitats such as seagrass to be conducted in a sustainable fashion using appropriate environmentally friendly mooring systems,” said Dr Unsworth.


Health Consequences Of Selectively Breeding German Shepherd Dogs

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German Shepherd Dogs (GSDs) could be predisposed to health conditions such as arthritis because of the way they have been bred in recent decades, according to a new study published in the open access journal Canine Genetics and Epidemiology.

Data from nearly half a million dogs collected across 430 veterinary clinics in the UK, via the VetCompass™ Programme at the Royal Veterinary College, reveals that GSDs are most likely to die from complications arising from musculoskeletal disorders (13.6% of cases) or the inability to stand (14.9% of cases). A total of 263 specific disorder types were recorded in German Shepherds, the most common of which were inflammation of the ear canal (7.89% of dogs), osteoarthritis (5.54%), diarrhoea (5.24%), overweight and obesity (5.18%), and aggression (4.76%).

Dr Dan O’Neill, lead author from the Royal Veterinary College, said: “German Shepherd Dogs have previously been reported to have the second highest number of health disorders exacerbated by breeding traits, with Great Danes occupying first place. It has been reported that German Shepherds are predisposed to conditions such as abnormal formation of the hip joint, cancer and degenerative spinal disorders, but the extent to which these conditions are prevalent in the population are unclear. However, by looking at primary care data from veterinary clinics, we are able to get a much better picture of the real priority conditions affecting this breed and this will help inform clinical practice in the future.”

The GSD is one of the most popular breeds worldwide with historical working roles that include herding, guarding, police, military and guide-dog work. German Shepherds were originally bred as a medium-sized dog for herding work until their popularity as a guard dog led to them being bred for a larger size and more confident demeanour.

Breeding of GSDs over recent years has focused on cosmetic traits which may be linked to the breed’s current predisposition to certain health conditions. The Kennel Club Breed Watch system lists the German Shepherd as ‘requiring particular monitoring and additional support’. Points of concern raised by the Breed Watch system include health complications that may arise from excessive angulation of the back knee and leg joints, a nervous temperament and weak hindquarters.

Dr O’Neill said: “Our results highlight the power of primary-care veterinary clinical records to help understand breed health in dogs and to support evidence-based approaches towards improved health and welfare in dogs. Interestingly, we found osteoarthritis to be one of the most common conditions reported, which may be caused, in part, by breeding for cosmetic traits such as lower hindquarters or a sloping back.”

The current study presents the largest analysis of demography, mortality and disorder prevalence in GSDs based exclusively on primary-care veterinary clinical records reported to date.

Caroline Kisko, Kennel Club Secretary said: “The Kennel Club welcomes research which provides valuable information about the health of dogs of any breed. The German Shepherd Dog is one of the seventeen breeds in the first round of the Kennel Club’s Breed Health and Conservation Plan project and therefore this new piece of research will form a valuable part of the evidence-base for this breed.”

“Research projects such as these will allow evidence-based recommendations to be made as to how to advance the health and welfare of the breed.”

China’s New Silk Road Risks Unravelling In Hungary

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By Mariangela Pira

(EurActiv) — China’s planned railway link between Greece and Central Europe has hit difficulties after the project was accused of flouting EU rules on public procurement in Hungary. EURACTIV’s partner Italia Oggi reports.

China did not secure a controlling stake in the Greek port of Piraeus in order to carry on with business as usual. Beijing wants to connect the hub better with Central Europe as part of its ambitious One Belt One Road initiative (OBOR).

That is why China has begun building a railway that will link the port with Budapest via Serbia. But the start of work in Hungary has been hit by problems and construction of the Belgrade-Budapest route has been halted.

EU member Hungary has allowed China to embark on the project, despite concerns from Brussels and the continent’s business sector.

NGO OBORwatch, a group committed to keeping tabs on the Chinese project, claims in its latest study that Hungary did not publish a call for public tender and instead relied on bilateral agreements with China.

The EU is now investigating the situation because public tenders are a prerequisite for large infrastructure projects like the Chinese railway.

“It’s as if the project were assigned to the Chinese based solely on an agreement with the Hungarians, completely bypassing European rules related to public bids,” explained State Representative of the European Chamber of Commerce in China Sara Marchetta.

The railway in question begins in Serbia but the project has broken no rules there, as Belgrade is not obligated to launch a tender process given that it is not yet a member of the EU.

It is also problematic that China is not a signatory to the World Trade Organisation’s Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA), which strives to ensure open, fair and transparent competition conditions. The EU and all its member states are signatories.

The lack of reciprocity in procurement contracts between Brussels and Beijing has caused friction, as European companies face huge difficulties accessing Chinese government contracts.

China’s new Silk Road project and its future success could now hinge on how the EU deals with this issue, as Brussels could set a legal precedent that would be hard to divert from.

Can The US And A Rising China Avoid Thucydides’s Trap? – Analysis

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War between established and rising powers like the US and China is not inevitable, but predictability is crucial.

By Börje Ljunggren*

China’s rise and the relative decline of the United States have produced a plethora of books. Among the most prominent is Graham Allison’s Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? While far from flawless, the book has undoubtedly succeeded in sharpening our focus.

Thucydides was a general and historian in Ancient Greece, and his History of the Peloponnesian War is regarded as the first major historical work. He maintains that the 27-year war, from 431 to 403 BC, was a consequence of the anxiety that Athens’s rise caused in Sparta, an ascending power challenging an established power:  it was “the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” This sentence inspired the term “Thucydides’s trap,” launching Allison’s project at Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs – identifying 16 major power rivalries during the last 500 years between a ruling and emerging power, 12 of which led to war.

Bust of Thucydides. Source: Wikipedia Commons.
Bust of Thucydides. Source: Wikipedia Commons.

A comforting fact may be that of the two cases since World War II – the Cold War and Germany’s reunification – neither led to war. Germany’s reunification was successfully achieved within the framework of the European Union. The Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 is, as Allison sees it, “the most dangerous confrontation in human history,” presenting “the starkest counterfactuals of all – and the lessons most relevant for the current US-Chinese dilemma.”

Today the idea of winning a world war seems truly insane. The nuclear threat is real, and as Allison notes, major powers could irrevocably destroy one another.

The book analyzes all 16 cases, but the focus is on the risk of war between the United States and an ascending China. Allison’s main thesis is that the two nations are “on a collision course for war – unless both parties take difficult and painful actions to avert it.”

China wants, says Allison, to “regain its rightful place,” and the return to the prominence of a 5000-year civilization is “not a problem to fix but a condition.”

Among his concerns is that “many Americans are still in denial about what China’s transformation from an agrarian backwater to ‘the biggest player in the history of the world’ means for the United States.”

The United States lacks a coherent strategy for dealing with a rising China.

Allison devotes considerable space to describing China’s dramatic development, ranging from GDP growth to top rankings for Chinese universities. Like Kissinger, who served as US secretary of state during the Nixon administration, Allison is seduced by the country. He is impressed not least, by how President Xi Jinping consolidates his power, making himself “chairman of everything.” Allison does not problematize China’s situation with regard to challenges posed by either the party-state or the economy driven by investment and credit, generating surpluses in steel and other commodities threatening the global economy.

Xi’s great nightmare is to meet the fate of the Soviet Communist Party, and he is not taking any risks, strengthening the party’s control over the administration and armed forces, the ultimate guarantor of power. China, embracing the engine of globalization, has moved beyond demanding what the late Lee Kuan Yew referred to as “being accepted as China, not as an honorary member of the Western world.”

No other country has profited as much from globalization as China. At the same time, the country has, despite 730 million internet users, remained a party-state. Thus, a key concept in Xi’s arsenal is “internet sovereignty.” Rather than undermine the party-state, the internet has become an indispensable tool of China’s “controlocracy,” to quote Stein Ringen, with glaring absence of a true civil society and human rights,  China’s proposed “social credit system” for monitoring and rating citizens as soon as 2020 is a logical development.

Germany’s rise in the beginning of the 20th century is alone among the 16 cases that Allison addresses in detail. The rapid expansion of German naval forces, the potential challenge to Britain’s hegemony, is a major theme in his analysis of the origins of World War I – with significant bearing on the growing Chinese navy and prevailing US presence in the Pacific. A salient illustration of China’s growing notion of its own global role is the 2014 military strategy stating that “the traditional mentality that land outweighs sea must be abandoned and great importance must be attached to managing the seas and oceans, and protecting maritime rights and interests.”

Almost 600 years have passed since China was a naval power. Today, naval power is a major objective for China. During the Obama administration, the US defense budget shrank, but still amounted to one third of global defense expenditure. US President Donald Trump is determined to reverse that trend, and naval power could be the epicenter of the emerging great power rivalry.

China naturally wants to see itself as hegemon in a Sinocentric East Asia. Xi has explained that the Pacific is big enough for both nations, but the US forward defense line in Pacific Asia runs near China – manifested through key alliances and naval presence.

In his impressive By More than Providence – Grand Strategy and American Power in the Asia Pacific Since 1783, Michael Green reconstructs the history of the United States as a Pacific power. His conviction is that “if there is one central theme in American strategic culture that has applied to the Far East over time, it is that the United States will not tolerate any other power establishing exclusive hegemonic control over Asia or the Pacific.” National interests necessitate that the Pacific “remains a conduit for American ideas and goods to flow westward, and not for threats to flow eastward toward the homeland.”

The dynamics identified by Thucydides will intensify. Preserving the status quo is impossible. Under Xi’s leadership, China has in a short time moved from Deng Xiaoping’s cautious maxim that the nation should “hide its power and bide its time” to an increasingly assertive role, taking advantage of strategic opportunities and embarking on major initiatives. And Trump contributes to “making China great” by turning his back on the liberal economic order, scrapping the Trans-Pacific Partnership and rejecting the Paris climate agreement.

While each personifies his country’s deep aspirations for national greatness, the two leaders differ – Trump is a narcissist with scant knowledge of crucial issues on his watch; Xi spent his life in the Communist Party, the last decade at its innermost power center.

Allison’s ultimate ambition is to raise awareness and prevent collision between the United States and China. He identifies four core ideas based on “structural realities”: clarifying vital interests, understanding the aims of the other, crafting strategy and addressing national challenges. Predictability is crucial.

Barack Obama was deeply aware of the value in developing predictable US-Chinese mechanisms for managing the power rivalry. He also showed that the two countries could contribute to a better world, as with the Paris agreement. It’s hard to envision such efforts during the Trump era.

The world is in the midst of a drama with many hard-to-predict scenes. “Economic Asia” prevailed for a long time, but today “security Asia” is reemerging and East Asia is not short of serious unresolved conflicts. “East Asian Peace,” as explained in the book by Stein Tönnesson in 2017, served the region well in recent decades, but is increasingly fragile.

A major war is hardly inevitable, but confrontations are an ever-present risk. Strategic distrust will define an increasingly complex US-Chinese relationship, but there is ample scope for joint efforts beyond distrust.

*Börje Ljunggren is former Swedish ambassador to China and author of Den kinesiska drömmen – Xi, makten och utmaningarna (The Chinese Dream – Xi, Power and Challenges), 2017.

Why Some People Are Poorer Than Others – OpEd

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By Henry Hazlitt*

Throughout history, until about the middle of the 18th century, mass poverty was nearly everywhere the normal condition of man. Then capital accumulation and a series of major inventions ushered in the Industrial Revolution. In spite of occasional setbacks, economic progress became accelerative. Today, in the United States, in Canada, in nearly all of Europe, in Australia, New Zealand, and Japan, mass poverty has been practically eliminated. It has either been conquered or is in process of being conquered by a progressive capitalism. Mass poverty is still found in most of Latin America, most of Asia, and most of Africa.

Yet even the United States, the most affluent of all countries, continues to be plagued by “pockets” of poverty and by individual poverty.

Temporary pockets of poverty, or of distress, are an almost necessary result of a free competitive enterprise system. In such a system some firms and industries are growing or being born, others are shrinking or dying; and many entrepreneurs and workers in the dying industries are unwilling or unable to change their residence or their occupation. Pockets of poverty may be the result of a failure to meet domestic or foreign competition, of a shrinkage or disappearance of demand for some product, of mines or wells that have been exhausted, of land that has become a dust bowl, and of droughts, floods, earthquakes, and other natural disasters. There is no way of preventing most of these contingencies, and no all encompassing cure for them. Each is likely to call for its own special measures of alleviation or adjustment. Whatever general measures may be advisable can best be considered as part of the broader problem of individual poverty.

This problem is nearly always referred to by socialists as “the paradox of poverty in the midst of plenty.” The implication of the phrase is not only that such poverty is inexcusable, but that its existence must be the fault of those who have the “plenty.” We are most likely to see the problem clearly, however, if we stop blaming “society” in advance and seek an unemotional analysis.

Diverse and International

When we start seriously to itemize the causes of individual poverty, absolute or relative, they seem too diverse and numerous even to classify. Yet in most discussion we do find the causes of individual poverty tacitly divided into two distinct groups — those that are the fault of the individual pauper and those that are not. Historically, many so-called “conservatives” have tended to blame poverty entirely on the poor: they are shiftless, or drunks or bums: “Let them go to work.” Most so-called “liberals,” on the other hand, have tended to blame poverty on everybody but the poor: they are at best the “unfortunate,” the “underprivileged,” if not actually the “exploited,” the “victims” of the “maldistribution of wealth,” or of “heartless laissez faire.”

The truth, of course, is not that simple, either way. We may, occasionally, come upon an individual who seems to be poor through no fault whatever of his own (or rich through no merit of his own). And we may occasionally find one who seems to be poor entirely through his own fault (or rich entirely through his own merit). But most often we find an inextricable mixture of causes for any given person’s relative poverty or wealth. And any quantitative estimate of fault versus misfortune seems purely arbitrary. Are we entitled to say, for example, that any given individual’s poverty is only 1 percent his own fault, or 99 percent his own fault — or fix any definite percentage whatever? Can we make any reasonably accurate quantitative estimate of the percentage even of those who are poor mainly through their own fault, as compared with those whose poverty is mainly the result of circumstances beyond their control? Do we, in fact, have any objective standards for making the separation?

A good idea of some of the older ways of approaching the problem can be obtained from the article on “Poverty” in The Encyclopedia of Social Reform, published in 1897.1 This refers to a table compiled by a Professor A. G. Warner in his book, American Charities. This table brought together the results of investigations in 1890 to 1892 by the charity organization societies of Baltimore, Buffalo, and New York City, the associated charities of Boston and Cincinnati; the studies of Charles Booth in Stepney and St. Pancras parishes in London, and the statements of Böhmert for 76 German cities published in 1886. Each of these studies tried to determine the “chief cause” of poverty for each of the paupers or poor families it listed. Twenty such “chief causes” were listed altogether.

Professor Warner converted the number of cases listed under each cause in each study into percentages, wherever this had not already been done; then took an unweighted average of the results obtained in the fifteen studies for each of these “Causes of Poverty as Determined by Case Counting,” and came up with the following percentages. First came six “Causes Indicating Misconduct”: Drink 11.0 percent, Immorality 4.7, Laziness 6.2, Inefficiency and Shiftlessness 7.4, Crime and Dishonesty 1.2, and Roving Disposition 2.2 — making a total of causes due to misconduct of 32.7 percent.

Professor Warner next itemized fourteen “Causes Indicating Misfortune”: Imprisonment of Bread Winner 1.5 percent, Orphans and Abandoned 1.4, Neglect by Relatives 1.0, No Male Support 8.0, Lack of Employment 17.4, Insufficient Employment 6.7, Poorly Paid Employment 4.4, Unhealthy or Dangerous Employment 0.4, Ignorance of English 0.6, Accident 3.5, Sickness or Death in Family 23.6, Physical Defect 4.1, Insanity 1.2, and Old Age 9.6 — making a total of causes indicating misfortune of 84.4 percent.

No Objective Standards

Let me say at once that as a statistical exercise this table is close to worthless, full of more confusions and discrepancies than it seems worth analyzing here. Weighted and unweighted averages are hopelessly mixed. And certainly it seems strange, for example, to list all cases of unemployment or poorly paid employment under “misfortune” and none under personal shortcomings.

Even Professor Warner points out how arbitrary most of the figures are: “A man has been shiftless all his life, and is now old; is the cause of poverty shiftlessness or old age?… Perhaps there is hardly a single case in the whole 7,000 where destitution has resulted from a single cause.”

But though the table has little value as an effort in quantification, any attempt to name and classify the causes of poverty does call attention to how many and varied such causes there can be, and to the difficulty of separating those that are an individual’s own fault from those that are not.

An effort to apply objective standards is now made by the Social Security Administration and other Federal agencies by classifying poor families under “conditions associated with poverty.” Thus we get comparative tabulations of incomes of farm and nonfarm families, of white and Negro families, families classified by age of “head,” male head or female head, size of family, number of members under 18, educational attainment of head (years in elementary schools, high school, or college), employment status of head, work experience of head (how many weeks worked or idle), “main reason for not working: ill or disabled, keeping house, going to school, unable to find work, other, 65 years and over”; occupation of longest job of head, number of earners in family; and so on.

These classifications, and their relative numbers and comparative incomes, do throw objective light on the problem, but much still depends on how the results are interpreted.

Oriented Toward the Future

A provocative thesis has been put forward by Professor Edward C. Banfield of Harvard in his book, The Unheavenly City.2 He divides American society into four “class cultures”: upper, middle, working, and lower classes. These “subcultures,” he warns, are not necessarily determined by present economic status, but by the distinctive psychological orientation of each toward providing for a more or less distant future.

At the most future oriented end of this scale, the upper-class individual expects long life, looks forward to the future of his children, grandchildren, even great-grandchildren, and is concerned also for the future of such abstract entities as the community, nation, or mankind. He is confident that within rather wide limits he can, if he exerts himself to do so, shape the future to accord with his purposes. He therefore has strong incentives to “invest” in the improvement of the future situation — e.g., to sacrifice some present satisfaction in the expectation of enabling someone (himself, his children, mankind, etc.) to enjoy greater satisfactions at some future time. As contrasted with this:

The lower class individual lives from moment to moment. If he has any awareness of a future, it is of something fixed, fated, beyond his control: things happen to him, he does not make them happen. Impulse governs his behavior, either because he cannot discipline himself to sacrifice a present for a future satisfaction or because he has no sense of the future. He is therefore radically improvident: whatever he cannot consume immediately he considers valueless. His bodily needs (especially for sex) and his taste for ‘action’ take precedence over everything else — and certainly over any work routine. He works only as he must to stay alive, and drifts from one unskilled job to another, taking no interest in the work.3

Professor Banfield does not attempt to offer precise estimates of the number of such lowerclass individuals, though he does tell us at one point that “such [‘multi problem’] families constitute a small proportion both of all families in the city (perhaps 5 percent at most) and of those with incomes below the poverty line (perhaps 10 to 20 percent). The problems that they present are out of proportion to their numbers, however; in St. Paul, Minnesota, for example, a survey showed that 6 percent of the city’s families absorbed 77 percent of its public assistance, 51 percent of its health services, and 56 percent of its mental health and correction casework services.”4

Obviously if the “lower class culture” in our cities is as persistent and intractable as Professor Banfield contends (and no one can doubt the fidelity of his portrait of a sizable group), it sets a limit on what government policy makers can accomplish.

By Merit, or by Luck

In judging any program of relief, our forefathers usually thought it necessary to distinguish sharply between the “deserving” and the “undeserving” poor. But this, as we have seen, is extremely difficult to do in practice. And it raises troublesome philosophic problems. We commonly think of two main factors as determining any particular individual’s state of poverty or wealth — personal merit, and “luck.” “Luck” we tacitly define as anything that causes a person’s economic (or other) status to be better or worse than his personal merits or efforts would have earned for him.

Few of us are objective in measuring this in our own case. If we are relatively successful, most of us tend to attribute our success wholly to our own intellectual gifts or hard work; if we have fallen short in our worldly expectations, we attribute the outcome to some stroke of hard luck, perhaps even chronic hard luck. If our enemies (or even some of our friends) have done better than we have, our temptation is to attribute their superior success mainly to good luck.

But even if we could be strictly objective in both cases, is it always possible to distinguish between the results of “merit” and “luck”? Isn’t it luck to have been born of rich parents rather than poor ones? Or to have received good nurture in childhood and a good education rather than to have been brought up in deprivation and ignorance? How wide shall we make the concept of luck? Isn’t it merely a man’s bad luck if he is born with bodily defects — crippled, blind, deaf, or susceptible to some special disease? Isn’t it also merely bad luck if he is born with a poor intellectual inheritance — stupid, feebleminded, an imbecile? But then, by the same logic, isn’t it merely a matter of good luck if a man is born talented, brilliant, or a genius? And if so, is he to be denied any credit or merit for being brilliant?

We commonly praise people for being energetic or hardworking, and blame them for being lazy or shiftless. But may not these qualities themselves, these differences in degrees of energy, be just as much inborn as differences in physical or mental strength or weakness? In that case, are we justified in praising industriousness or censuring laziness?

However difficult such questions may be to answer philosophically, we do give definite answers to them in practice. We do not criticize people for bodily defects (though some of us are not above deriding them), nor do we (except when we are irritated) blame them for being hopelessly stupid. But we do blame them for laziness or shiftlessness, or penalize them for it, because we have found in practice that people do usually respond to blame and punishment, or praise and reward, by putting forth more effort than otherwise. This is really what we have in mind when we try to distinguish between the “deserving” and the “undeserving” poor.

What Happens to Incentive

The important question always is the effect of outside aid on incentives. We must remember, on the one hand, that extreme weakness or despair is not conducive to incentive. If we feed a man who has actually been starving, we for the time being probably increase rather than decrease his incentives. But as soon as we give an idle able-bodied man more than enough to maintain reasonable health and strength, and especially if we continue to do this over a prolonged period, we risk undermining his incentive to work and support himself. There are unfortunately many people who prefer near destitution to taking a steady job. The higher we make any guaranteed floor under incomes, the larger the number of people who will see no reason either to work or to save. The cost to even a wealthy community could ultimately become ruinous.

An “ideal” assistance program, whether private or governmental, would

  1. supply everyone in dire need, through no fault of his own, enough to maintain him in reasonable health;
  2. would give nothing to anybody not in such need; and
  3. would not diminish or undermine anybody’s incentive to work or save or improve his skills and earning power, but would hopefully even increase such incentives.

But these three aims are extremely difficult to reconcile. The nearer we come to achieving any one of them fully, the less likely we are to achieve one of the others. Society has found no perfect solution of this problem in the past, and seems unlikely to find one in the future. The best we can look forward to, I suspect, is some never-quite-satisfactory compromise.

Fortunately, in the United States the problem of relief is now merely a residual problem, likely to be of constantly diminishing importance as, under free enterprise, we constantly increase total production. The real problem of poverty is not a problem of “distribution” but of production. The poor are poor not because something is being withheld from them, but because, for whatever reason, they are not producing enough. The only permanent way to cure their poverty is to increase their earning power.

[The Freeman, 1972.]

About the author:
*Henry Hazlitt (1894-1993) was a well-known journalist who wrote on economic affairs for the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and Newsweek, among many other publications. He is perhaps best known as the author of the classic Economics in One Lesson (1946).

Source:
This article was published by the MISES Institute

Notes:

  • 1. Ed. by Wm. D. P. Bliss (New York: Funk & Wagnalls).
  • 2. Boston: Little Brown, 1970.
  • 3. Ibid., p. 53.
  • 4. Ibid., p. 127.

John Kelly Named As White House Chief Of Staff

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President Donald Trump has named a new chief of staff, selecting Department of Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly.

President Trump thanked his current chief of staff, Reince Priebus, for his service to the country and said he was proud of him.

President Trump made the announcement in a series of tweets Friday afternoon following days of friction between Priebus and newly named White House Communication Director Anthony Scaramucci.

Trump said John Kelly has “done a spectacular job at Homeland Security. He has been a true star of my administration.”

Climate Change Means More Rain, More Nitrogen Runoff, More Problems

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An intensifying water cycle will likely cause dramatic increases – nearing 20% by 2100 – in the amount of nitrogen runoff in the U.S., according to a new study.

Excessive nitrogen that mixes with rivers and estuaries can profoundly affect water systems; for example it can spur algal blooms, which have negative impacts on human health, aquatic ecosystems and the economy.

Future changes in precipitation patterns, induced by climate change, could strongly influence the degree of future nitrogen runoff; however, most analyses have been limited to local regions and only rely on a small handful of climate models.

For more comprehensive estimates, Eva Sinha and colleagues analyzed anticipated changes in precipitation according to 21 different climate models, each of which was run for three climate scenarios (varying from aggressive efforts to mitigate climate change to a “business-as-usual” scenario), and two time periods (near future, 2031-2060; and far-future, 2071-2100).

Across the continental United States as a whole, models consistently estimate that nitrogen loading will increase under all three scenarios, for both time periods. Under a far-future “business-as-usual” scenario, the mean projected increase in nitrogen loading within the continental United States is 19%, with the Northeast, the upper Mississippi Atchafalaya River Basin, and the Great Lakes basin experiencing the largest increases, the authors report.

To put these numbers in perspective, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency currently recommends reducing nitrogen input in the Mississippi Atchafalaya River Basin by 20% relative to 1980-1996 levels to mitigate the negative effects of nitrogen that flows into the Gulf of Mexico.

However, with the estimated changes in precipitation, a 62% reduction in nitrogen input would be required to achieve a similar objective. Sybil P. Seitzinger and Leigh Phillips discuss these results, as well as ways to reduce nitrogen use, in a related Perspective.

Spain’s Contribution To Euro-Atlantic Security – Analysis

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In order to get a sense of Spain’s contribution to Euro-Atlantic security, this analysis examines Madrid’s performance in relation to four relevant indicators: (1) its political commitment to strengthening NATO and the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy, and its leadership in conceiving key policy initiatives in these two frameworks; (2) its actual material contribution to collective (ie, EU/NATO) initiatives and operations; (3) its overall defence spending; and (4) those national efforts that may have a possible impact on Euro-Atlantic security. The conclusion is that Spain’s contribution to Euro-Atlantic security is more relevant than one might think.

By Aurora Mejía*

Introduction

Both NATO and the EU have recently called attention to the worsening security situation in and around Europe. In their 2016 summit at Warsaw, the Heads of State and Government of the Alliance alluded to an ‘arc of insecurity and instability along NATO’s periphery and beyond’, pointing to Russia’s aggressive actions in Eastern Europe, the deterioration of the security situation in the Middle East and the threat of terrorism on European soil.1 In order to mitigate, or even redress, the spectre of ever greater instability, allied leaders called for a more determined collective effort to strengthen defence and deterrence in the East and project stability in the South. In a similar vein, the 2016 EU Global Strategy for Foreign Policy and Security alluded to the violation of the security order in Eastern Europe and the plague of terrorism and violence in North Africa and the Middle East.2 According to the global strategy these times call for a stronger Europe and, more particularly, a greater EU effort in the area of security and defence.

The sense of urgency about the evolving security situation in and around Europe —and about the need for European countries to do something about it— has not been lost on Europe’s citizens. Recent public opinion surveys consistently show that security has become one of the biggest concerns for the citizens of EU and NATO countries, and that there is broad public support to the idea that Europeans should play a greater security role.3 The ball is now in the member states’ court. It is ultimately up to them to provide the resources and energy needed to produce a greater security effort on the part of NATO and the EU —one that can help strengthen security and bring stability to Europe and its environs—.

One important way to measure a nation’s commitment to collective security in the Euro-Atlantic area is to look at their input, by assessing how much they spend on defence. Hence there is a new commitment by NATO Heads of State and Government to increase their national defence budgets to 2% of GDP by 2024. However, it is important not to lose sight of output and to take into account how much states actually contribute to collective defence and security initiatives.

How is Spain doing? Madrid is often portrayed as a laggard on the security and defence fronts. Admittedly, it has one of the lowest defence budgets in the Euro-Atlantic area. Yet Spain halted its defence spending cuts and actually increased spending on defence by about 32% from 2016 to 2017.4 The government remains politically committed to more spending in coming years. Perhaps more importantly, Spain fares much better if we look at output. In this regard, Spain has not only demonstrated an unwavering political support for NATO and the furthering of the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), it has also shown a strong commitment to NATO initiatives. It stands out as the leading contributor to CSDP military operations, as it is the only EU country that has participated in all the operations launched to date. Last but not least, Spain’s own efforts to curb illegal immigration from Africa and its support for French military operations in that continent bear witness to its status as a ‘border country’ and its important contribution to Euro-Atlantic security.

Spain’s vision for Euro-Atlantic security: projecting stability and enhancing resilience

Spain understands peace and security in a Euro-Atlantic context and is committed to a balanced development of NATO and the EU. Like many other countries in the Euro-Atlantic space, Spain belongs to both organisations and is firmly convinced of the need for European security for both. Thus, Spain advocates a stronger EU role in security and defence while insisting that this should reinforce and complement NATO.

The year 2016 was important for Euro-Atlantic security. Besides the presentation of the EU Global Strategy, at their July 2016 summit in Warsaw, NATO countries adopted a so-called 360-degree approach to European security and defence. The Warsaw Summit allowed the organisation’s focus to shift to two key issues for the improvement of security in the Euro-Atlantic area, which became the focus of the Special Meeting of Heads of State and Government on May 2017. The two key issues are: compliance with the Wales Summit’s commitment to investment in defence, the so-called ‘Defence Investment Pledge’, and the importance of the fight against terrorism. Moreover, on the margins of the Warsaw Summit, NATO and EU leaders signed a joint statement confirming that relations between the two organisations are reaching historic levels of cooperation.

As a border country, bringing stability to North Africa and the Middle East remains a strategic priority for Spain. Thus, Madrid welcomed the launch of a new NATO initiative at Warsaw under the name ‘Projecting Stability’, aimed at reinforcing the capacities of NATO partners, among others, in the Middle East and North Africa. It also supports similar initiatives in the EU context. In particular, in its Global Strategy Implementation Plan on Security and Defence the EU has called for reinforcing the capacities of its partners as one of the three priorities of the new Level of Ambition (the other two priorities being responding to crisis and external conflicts and the protection of Europe and its citizens).

Underlining this concept of ‘projecting stability’ or ‘reinforcing the capacities of our partners’, Spain supports the strategic concept of ‘advanced frontier’. It sees forward engagement in North Africa and the Sahel as essential to Spanish and Euro-Atlantic security. It has therefore devoted significant efforts to improving the situation of its southern neighbours, not least through bilateral programmes to combat illegal migration with countries like Mauritania, Mali, Senegal and Cabo Verde. Due to this, Spain has been one of the pioneers in implementing, even without expressly mentioning it, the concept of ‘resilience’ —reinforcing early prevention in societies that might be threatened—.

Spain and NATO: committed to the East, leading in the South

In the framework of NATO, Spain is one of the leading advocates of prioritising the challenges from the South. Hence its strong support for the Mediterranean Dialogue and its firm commitment to the Framework for NATO Adaptation to the Threats coming from the South, also launched at the Wales Summit.

At their May 2017 Brussels meeting, NATO member states agreed to present concrete national plans outlining a vision of how to comply with the Defence Investment Pledge agreed upon at the 2014 Wales Summit. These plans revolve around three components: (1) the ‘aim to move towards’ spending 2% of GDP on defence, allocating 20% of this 2% to equipment acquisition and R&D; (2) the capability procurement goal that each ally establishes within NATO; and (3) the contribution of each ally to missions and operations, ie, to participation in NATO military operations but not only in the Alliance, also in the EU, the United Nations and the Coalition against Daesh.

Insofar as it devotes only 0.9% of its GDP to defence, Spain is still in the low band of the percentage of spending in relation to GDP in NATO, but it fares much better in terms of its spending on equipment and R&D, which account for 19.31% of its overall defence spending. The commitment made in Wales to ‘aim to move towards’ 2% GDP defence spending in 2024 must not be forgotten. However, it is this broader, three-component approach to measuring a country’s contribution to Euro-Atlantic security that underscores Spain’s position.

Spain is one of the most committed Allies in its contributions to NATO operations and initiatives. All of its joint commands (Land, Maritime, Air and Special Operations) take part in the rotations of the NATO Response Force; it has taken the lead of the Standing NATO Maritime Group 2 (SNMG 2) in the first half of 2017; it contributes to the operation Active Fence in Turkey with a Patriot battery since 1 January 2015, its presence having been extended until the end of this year; and it takes part in all the measures aimed at reassuring NATO allies in the East. In 2016, Spain was the first framework nation of the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF), the main component of the Readiness Action Plan adopted at the Wales Summit in 2014, in reaction to the illegal annexation of Crimea by Russia. Madrid is also taking part in the Baltic Air Police, with two rotations in 2015 and 2016, having deployed again this year fighters in Estonia. Lastly, Spain is contributing to the Enhanced Forward Presence in 2017, with more than 300 troops integrated in the battalion led by Canada, which has just been deployed in Latvia and also involves Albania, Italy, Poland and Slovenia.

Spain contributes 4.9% of NATO’s common budget, placing it in seventh place among the allies, only behind the US, Germany, the UK, France, Italy and Canada. Its armed forces have the eighth-largest number of NATO troops.

Finally, it is important to take into account Spain’s commitment to NATO’s Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) programme, which was agreed upon at the Lisbon Summit in 2010 in response to the growing threat of the proliferation of ballistic missiles, and whose initial operational capacity was declared fulfilled last July. Spain provides tactical and logistical support and protection capabilities to this strictly defensive system. This is an area in which Spain cooperates specifically with the US in the context of its deployment of four AEGIS destroyers in Rota.

The EU’s CSDP: Spain as a leader?

Beyond NATO, Spain is a leading advocate of the EU’s CSDP, both in word and deed. At the political level, Spain was very strongly involved from the outset in the making of the EU Global Strategy for Foreign Policy and Security, presented by the High Representative in June 2016. It has also expressed its strong support for the further development of the Global Strategy, specifically through the Implementation Plan on Security and Defence.

Alongside key partners like France, Germany and Italy, Spain is pushing for a deepening of CSDP. This revolves around several key initiatives, including, chiefly: (1) the adoption of a new Level of Ambition for CSDP operations, agreed in the Implementation Plan, through improved intelligence and better coordination on capabilities; (2) the establishment of a military permanent planning and conduct capability (MPCC), agreed for the moment only for non-executive missions; and (3) a greater involvement of the European Council in security and defence issues in general.

At this stage, Spain supports further progress on CSDP, which currently involves three main areas: (1) the establishment of the MPCC within the EU Military Staff; (2) a Coordinated Annual Review on Defence (CARD) among Member States in order to better ensure their defence commitments; and (3) the possible launching of Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), foreseen in the Treaty of Lisbon, but which has so far not been launched.

Besides its unwavering political support for CSDP, Spain is the leading contributor to the military missions currently under way in the EU, as far as the number of troops is concerned (767 in total as of July 2017). As a maritime nation, Spain plays a key role in the two CSDP military missions at sea: EUNAVFOR Atalanta and EUNAVFORMED Sophia. EUNAVFOR Atalanta aims to fight piracy off the coast of Somalia and thus protect a vital European sea lane —this being arguably the most strategically relevant CSDP mission—. Spain has been the main contributor to Atalanta and the only EU member state that has participated permanently since the operation was launched in 2009. EUNAVFORMED Sophia is part of the EU’s comprehensive response to the migration challenge in the Mediterranean. The UN Security Council has just extended the mandate of EUNAVFORMED Sophia, as in 2016 two additional tasks were added: training the Libyan coastguard and monitoring the arms embargo in international waters off the coast of Libya. These two additional tasks complement the initial one, which was the fight human trafficking networks. The first training package delivered by EUNAVFORMED Sophia concluded in February 2017, and Training Package 2 was launched thereafter. In this context, 36 of the trainees from the Libyan Coast Guard and Port Security (LCGPS) will be trained in Spain

In addition to its two naval missions, the EU has four other military operations in progress: EUTM Mali, EUTM RCA, EUTM Somalia and EUFOR Althea. Spain is engaged in all of them. Moreover, the EU is presently engaged in nine civilian operations: EUPOL COPPS, EUAM Ukraine, EUBAM Libya, EUCAP Sahel Niger and EUCAP Sahel Mali, in which Spain participates; and EUCAP Somalia, EULEX Kosovo, EUMM Georgia and EUBAM Rafah.

Beyond NATO and CSDP

Spain’s contribution to Euro-Atlantic security is not confined to the NATO and EU frameworks. It also participates in the Eurocorps and in the European Gendarmerie Force (EUROGENDFOR) —two independent structures that can nonetheless help reinforce the EU’s CSDP and even NATO—.

Spain sees the Eurocorps as a structure that can serve both the EU and NATO. Since 1994 it has participated in the Eurocorps alongside Belgium, France, Germany and Luxembourg, with a Mechanised Division. Its final integration was completed on 31 December 1998 with the incorporation of the Extremadura XI Mechanised Infantry Brigade and the remaining units of the Nuclear Troop Division (NTD) of the Brunete Mechanised Division. The Treaty on the Eurocorps and the Statute of its Headquarters (Strasbourg Treaty) entered into force in 2009. Today the Eurocorps is one of NATO’s seven High Readiness Land Headquarters, having been certified as such in 2003, and it is included in the rotation system of the NATO Response Force (NRF).

EUROGENDFOR is integrated by member states’ paramilitary police forces (‘gendarmeries’), including Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Romania; it has the objective of carrying out police missions in the framework of crisis-management operations. Spain participates with its Guardia Civil. Due to its dual military and police nature, EUROGENDFOR can carry out all types of missions during crisis management operations, participating in the military phase of a crisis, acting in the transition between a military and a civilian operation and participating in missions of prevention. EUROGENDFOR services mainly the EU but can also be placed at the service of other international organisations, such as NATO, the UN or the OSCE. It has a rapid reaction capacity of around 800 individuals within 30 days. In 2017 Spain holds the presidency of the EUROGENDFOR Interministerial High Level Committee (CIMIN).

Beyond its contribution to multilateral structures, Spain has taken a number of steps aimed at strengthening security in the southern neighbourhood. We have already alluded to Spain’s ongoing engagement with a number of countries in North and West Africa, whose object is to strengthen their resilience and curb illegal immigration into Europe. In addition, and with a view to improving security in Africa, Spain engages in bilateral military and intelligence cooperation with a number of European countries, most notably France. Spain’s strong support of France following the 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris bears witness to the close ties between the two countries. Spain has been assisting French operations in Africa, mainly in Mali and the Central African Republic, with Air Force deployments of 61 and 45 troops in Dakar and Libreville respectively.

Spain also contributes to the Global Coalition against Daesh, participating in the five working groups of the Coalition (poli-military stabilisation, foreign terrorist fighters, financial control and strategic communication). Specifically, Spain leads the base in Besmayah (Iraq) and has recently expanded its presence in Iraq to 450 troops. Spain has cooperated with experts from the Hoyo de Manzanares NATO Centre of Excellence on Demining (C-IED), in the framework of the NATO Defence Capacity Building (DCB) programme in Iraq (first for Iraqi officers in Jordan, later moving to Iraq) and is contributing to the police training programme led by Italy, with 25 Guardias Civiles.

Conclusions

Spain’s understanding of security is rooted in its conception of the Euro-Atlantic as a space of shared interests, norms and values. This paper has provided an overview of Spain’s contribution to Euro-Atlantic security by identifying four relevant areas. One often discussed benchmark relates to input, and more particularly defence spending: this is an area where Spain can do more, with a view to meeting the commitment to move towards 2% of its GDP in defence, adopted at the 2014 NATO Wales Summit. A second area has to do with a country’s political support for the development of NATO and the EU’s CSDP. This is an area in which Spain scores high. Besides supporting a stronger NATO and a stronger CSDP, it wants to ensure that their development is complementary and mutually reinforcing. Notably, Madrid has played an important role in the conception of relevant initiatives, such as NATO’s ‘projecting stability’ and southern neighbourhood agendas, and of key CSDP initiatives such as Permanent Structured Cooperation.

A third important area relates to Spain’s actual material contribution to NATO and CSDP initiatives and operations. This is another area where Spain’s contribution stands out. It has played an active role in recent NATO initiatives on the eastern flank, having acted as the framework nation of the VJTF and Standing NATO Maritime Group 2, being a regular contributor to the Baltic Air Policing Mission, sending 300 troops to Latvia and maintaining a Patriot battery in Turkey. It also plays a central role in NATO’s Ballistic Missile Defence architecture. As far as the EU is concerned, Spain is today the largest contributor to CSDP military operations and is also present in five out of nine ongoing civilian operations. The last indicator has to do with Spain’s own initiatives beyond NATO and the EU. As a ‘border state’, Spain’s actions in Europe’s southern neighbourhood —whether bilaterally or as part of a smaller cluster of countries— also make an important contribution to European security. In this regard, we should perhaps note Spain’s efforts not only in curbing illegal migration into Europe by reaching out to key countries in North and West Africa and improving their resilience, but also Madrid’s contribution to French-led military efforts in Africa.

About the author:
*Aurora Mejía
, Deputy Director General for Security, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation of Spain

Source:
This article was published by Elcano Royal Institute

Notes:
1 ‘Warsaw Summit Communiqué issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Warsaw 8-9 July 2016’, para 5.

2 ‘A Global Strategy for the European Union’s Foreign and Security Policy, Share Vision, Common Action: A Stronger Europe’, June 2016, p. 7.

3 European Commission COM (2017) 315 of 7 June 2017, “Reflection paper on the Future of European Defence”, p. 8, Eurobarometer.

4 This is mainly due to the transfer of new defence equipment programmes (formerly paid for by credits from the Ministry of Industry) to the core Ministry of Defence budget. We should therefore perhaps compare the 2017 budget with that of 2015 (when the equipment programmes were also included). Back in 2015 the defence budget was 0.92% of GDP, although the GDP was then lower than in 2017.


India And Israel: Cooperation On Water Management – Analysis

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India is seeking Israel’s expertise in water technology and management techniques. Cooperation between the two countries will enhance India’s capacity in the management of water resources but this needs to be supported by water demand management, training of users for the operation and maintenance of technology, and robust legal and regulatory frameworks.

By Faiza Saleem*

In July 2017, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Israel. This was the first visit of an Indian prime minister to Israel, marking 25 years of diplomatic relations. The visit elevated bilateral relations to a ‘strategic partnership’ between the two countries.

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyaho. Photo Credit: India PM Office.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyaho. Photo Credit: India PM Office.

The two are already significant allies, with trade touching US$4.16 billion (S$5.68 billion) in 2016 (excluding defence expenditures).2 This visit broadened partnership into other key areas, with Modi meeting and encouraging the chief executive officers of Israeli companies to invest in India. With a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of US$2 trillion (S$2.73 trillion), India is a huge market for Israeli companies wishing to tap into the world’s second largest population.

Detailed talks between Modi and his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu led to the signing of seven agreements, with three in the agricultural and water sectors as follows:3

  1. The Ministry of Drinking Water and Sanitation of India and Israel’s Ministry of National Infrastructure, Energy and Water Resources signed a pact on National Campaign for Water Conservation in India;
  2. The Uttar Pradesh (UP) government and the Israel Ministry of National Infrastructure, Energy and Water Resources signed a pact on state water utility reform in India.
  3. India and Israel agreed on a three-year programme in agriculture cooperation from 2018 to 2020.

Water Management Challenges

India is looking to harness Israel’s expertise in technological innovation and water management. However, it faces a number of challenges in the management of its water resources, with four key issues identified as follow:

1) Population: Currently, India has a population of 1.31 billion people, making it the second most populous country in the world behind China. By 2030, the population is estimated to reach 1.5 billion, with a 50 per cent gap between water demand and supply.

2) Agriculture: Even though agriculture’s contribution to India’s GDP has decreased and now stands at approximately 15 per cent, close to 600 million people are still dependent on it for their living. This makes the availability of water for agriculture crucial, not just for 54 per cent of the working population engaged in farms as cultivators and labourers, but also for food production and the country’s economy.

3) Water Resources: India depends on two key sources of water supply – ground water and rivers. Both are under stress due to rapid industrialisation, urbanisation and climate change. Groundwater is used by households and agricultural producers. However, unsustainable extraction, due to variable water delivery (and free electricity to farms), has resulted in declining water tables. In some parts of India, the water table is falling by more than a meter per year.4 But the demand for water is increasing. Today, the country uses more groundwater than both China and the United States combined.5

At the same time, rivers are shrinking due to bio and chemical waste discharge. For instance, the Ganga River flows through 11 Indian states and provides water to more than 500 million people. However, it has become unusable in the states of UP and Bihar due to industrial and sewage waste. The Yamuna River is in the same condition as it receives approximately 850 million gallons daily of sewage from New Delhi, making it hazardous for local populations.6 An estimated 21 per cent of the country’s diseases are water related.7

4) Infrastructure: Water supply and sanitation infrastructure are compromised in most parts of India. For instance, New Delhi faces approximately 40 per cent system losses in water supplied to the city.8 Although improvements have been made in increasing the availability of water, significantly more investments are needed to cater to approximately 76 million people who have no access to safe water.9 Investments also require maintenance. Estimates suggest that approximately US$500 billion (S$680.6 billion) worth of water and irrigation infrastructure is performing poorly and neglected.10 The resulting water and productivity losses, along with the spread of diseases, constitute a major burden on the country’s finances.

Existing Linkages

Within the last decade, Israel has moved from a country with chronic water shortages due to climate change and persistent drought to a water-rich country.11 Today, it has more water than it needs. While drought and food shortages in neighbouring Syria led to civil war, Israel became the world’s most advanced country in water technology and management techniques. Its two- pronged strategy included a reduction in demand and an expansion of supply sources through desalination and waste water recycling. Now countries across the world, including China, Japan, Canada and Ghana, draw on its expertise to solve their own water challenges.

India too has been drawn to Israel’s prowess in the agricultural and water spaces. Since 2008, Indo-Israeli Agricultural Cooperation Project has been underway between Mashav and the National Horticulture Mission in India.12 Under this project, Agricultural Centres of Excellence were set up, providing a platform for the sharing of information, best practices and technologies for farmers. With 30 centres in different states of India, evidence suggests a positive impact on the income levels of the farmers. For instance, the Gharaunda Centre of Excellence in the state of Haryana introduced the farmers to new cultivation methods and advanced fertilisation and irrigation techniques.

Approximately 20,000 farmers visit the centre each year. It was noted that Israeli technology and training helped increase crop yields between 5 to 10 times and produced a 65 per cent reduction in water use in the first three years of operation.13

Water technology companies from Israel have been gaining a foothold in the Indian market for a number of years. Chennai, for instance, depends on rainfall to fill the four lakes around the city, which then feed its seven million residents. Unpredictable rainfall disrupts the city’s water supply almost every year. To mitigate this problem, the Chennai Metropolitan Water Supply and Sewerage Board set up the Nemmeli Desalination Plant in 2013. It was built by VA Tech Wabag, in collaboration with Israeli company IDE Technologies, on a design, build and operate basis. With a capacity of 100,000 cubic metres, this plant converts sea water into potable water for over one million people in the suburbs of Chennai. While it has not completely resolved the city’s water woes, it has expanded the supply base and opened up opportunities for new collaborations.

The city of Agra relies on the Yamuna River to serve water to its residents, but pollution and a contamination of the river water had produced a severe water crisis in the city. Consequently, in 2012, an Israeli company Aqwise was tasked with purifying drinking water. Through the help of a local implementation partner, it now uses the Moving Bed Biological Reactor technology to clean 150,000 cubic metres of water daily for over two million residents and visitors in Agra.14 The largest project of its kind in the world, this technology is simple, inexpensive and scalable to other parts of the country.

New Era of Water Cooperation

Given existing linkages, the recent visit of Modi to Israel will enhance the nature and scale of water cooperation between the two countries.

A growing population, industrialisation and climate change challenge India’s ability to manage its water resources. The expected shortfall in supply will reach 50 per cent by 2030. Therefore, desalination and waste water recycling hold immense potential as additional sources of supply. Israel has used both to tackle its own water shortages. While desalination plants have been set up in some cities of India, there is potential to further utilise this technology. Israeli companies today have advanced desalination technology that require less maintenance and energy. One such technology was witnessed by Modi during his visit to Israel.15 GalMobile is a portable seawater purification plant designed to produce high quality drinking water. The first of its kind in the world, it can purify 20 cubic metres of sea water per day and 80 cubic metres of brackish, muddy or contaminated river water. Its size and mobility increase its desirability and potential to tackle the fundamental problem facing the water sector in India – dirty and polluted water. There are additional benefits. These mobile vehicles can serve remote communities and villages, unconnected to main water supply networks. It needs two people to operate, and if provided on a franchisee basis, it can encourage entrepreneurship and employment opportunities.

WaterGen, an Israeli company specialising in air-to-water technology, has also entered the market. It recently signed a US$100 million (S$136.5 million) deal with a local solar engineering firm and will serve remote villages in India. Its solar-powered system will produce fresh water from air and will be available in small (home), medium and industrial scale. Not only will this benefit communities which lack access to water, but it will also reduce dependency on rain and ground water. The risk of disease and time spent traveling long distances to collect water will also be decreased. In addition, the system will reduce reliance on electricity, reducing energy costs for households trying to access groundwater. As with GalMobile, a franchisee network and partnership with a local firm will double the benefits to the local population by creating income generating opportunities.

Apart from quality and access, wastage of water is a critical issue. To that effect, the pact between the two countries for a National Campaign for Water Conservation in India is vital. It aims to raise awareness about water among citizens and encourage them to save it. While the details of the conservation campaign in India are not available as yet, its primary focus must be the users in the agricultural sector, since over 80 per cent of India’s water is consumed by irrigation.16 Water wastage occurs due to traditional irrigation methods which flood the field. This campaign combined with the agricultural development programme from 2018 to 2020, is a tremendous opportunity for India to enhance the skills and capabilities of farmers in water conservation. Israel, with its own arid to semi-arid climate, has suffered from drought conditions. As such, its lessons in agriculture are applicable to India. In the past, many companies developed drip irrigation systems but they produced little success for the farmers who need training on the usage and maintenance of the systems. The Centres of Excellence are filling this fundamental gap. The technology is demonstrated in the centres and specialists then work with the farmers on ground (fields) to see if the technology is being correctly used and maintained. This hand-holding is essential for farmers who often have little formal education and are unable to apply the new technology.

Challenges Ahead

India needs a mix of demand and supply management techniques, combined with technological innovations, to meet the water needs of households, industry and agricultural producers. The strategic cooperation with Israel will focus on expansion of water sources, that is, desalination and wastewater recycling. India itself is also concentrating on increasing storage capacity. It has the third largest number of dams in the world.17 However, there needs to be an equivalent focus on demand management. A decade ago, Israel began its turnaround through demand reduction by highlighting the country’s water challenges in aggressive campaigns and imposed high tariffs on domestic users of fresh water – the average Israeli families. The joint effect of tariffs and public campaigns decreased water consumption successfully by instilling consciousness among the citizens.18 In India too, the pricing of water needs to be adjusted to reflect the economic value of water. This will come through higher tariffs and the installation of meters for households, so water usage and leakages can be accounted for. For the farmers, ground water dependence has increased as fresh water availability is highly variable.

Therefore, subsidies for tube well usage will need to be cut to curtail the unstainable levels of groundwater extraction. Cutting subsidies will be politically difficult and it will depend on the central and state governments’ commitment to addressing the core issues plaguing the water sector.
The Israeli water technology will need linkages with local businesses and people in India. While most Israeli companies have entered the Indian market through local partners, there is a growing need for skills upgrading so that the users can be trained to understand the technology, its operations and maintenance. Otherwise, infrastructure and technology investments will go to waste. Linkages are also importance as they foster innovation – local businesses can learn and adapt the technology to other problems. In order to develop these connections, state governments in India will need to ease restrictions to market entry and provide incentives for businesses to employ and train people.

Robust legal and regulatory frameworks are also needed to protect natural resources and the environment. For instance, Water ATMs (automated water dispensing units) were introduced in India a few years ago to service communities which lacked access to quality drinking water. These machines are built and operated by private companies but it is unclear how much groundwater a company draws in a day. In a country with rapidly depleting groundwater resources, privatising water provision carries the risk of an over exploitation of resources for profit making.

Conclusion

India and Israel’s water partnership can significantly serve the interests of both countries. Modi’s visit provides a further impetus to the ongoing collaboration between Israeli businesses, state governments and local organisations in India. By upgrading bilateral relations to a strategic partnership, India has formalised cooperation between the two governments and their private sectors. This will encourage entrepreneurship and employment opportunities for Indian youth, while also encouraging innovation in the local industry.

The agreements signed between the two countries and the investment committed to the agricultural and water sectors reflects the commitment of the Indian government to tackling its water management challenges. However, it will need to make tough decisions on managing water demand through water tariffs and increased public awareness. Strong legal structures of accountability are also required at the local level to monitor the activities of private businesses to protect the consumers and the environment. This will call for close monitoring of the legal arrangements by the federal government and the judiciary in view of the frequent conflicts between India’s regional governments about the sharing of river waters and other water-related issues.

About the author:
*Ms Faiza Saleem
is Research Assistant at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), an autonomous research institute at the National University of Singapore. She can be contacted at faizasaleem@nus.edu.sg. The author bears full responsibility for the facts cited and opinions expressed in this paper.

Source:
This article was published by ISAS as ISAS Insights No. 442

Notes:
2 “India-Israel Economic And Commercial Relations.” Indembassy.Co.Il, 2017, https://www.indembassy.co.il/ pages.php?id=14Some#.WXBysISGOUk.
3 “Narendra Modi Israel Visit: India And Israel Ink 7 Deals”, Financial Express, 2017, http://www.financialex press.com/india-news/narendra-modi-israel-visit-7-agreements-signed-between-india-and-israel-jointstatem ent-pm-netanyahu-says-you-and-i-will-change-the-world/750484/.
4 Shiao, Tien et al. “3 Maps Explain India’S Growing Water Risks.” Wri.Org, 2017, http://www.wri.org/blog/ 2015/02/3-maps-explain-india%E2%80%99s-growing-water-risks.
5 “Why India Has A Water Crisis?.” The Economist, 2016, https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist- explains/2016/05/economist-explains-11.
6 Chaudhary, Juhi. “Thirsty And Ill In Delhi.” The Third Pole, 2015, https://www.thethirdpole.net/2015/10/10/ thirsty-and-ill-in-delhi/.
7 “India’s Water And Sanitation Crisis.” Water.Org, 2017, https://water.org/our-impact/india/.
8 “New Delhi Faces An Acute Water Shortage.” The Wire, 2017, https://thewire.in/156626/new-delhi-water- shortage/.
9 “India’s Water And Sanitation Crisis.” Water.Org, 2017, https://water.org/our-impact/india/.
10 Water Sector In India. World Bank, 2011, http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2011/09/29/india-water
11 Federbush, Marjorie S, and Jerome C Muys. “Israel And Water – (What’s Next For The) “Turn Around Nation”: How Israel’s Leadership In Advanced Water Technologies Can Enhance Global Economic Growth And Diplomatic Relations.”American Foreign Policy Interests, vol 34, no. 6, 2012, pp 309-321. doi:10.1080/10803920.2012.742408.
12 Mashav is Israel’s Agency for International Development Cooperation (Ministry of Foreign Affairs).
13 The Indo-Israeli Agriculture Project. MASHAV, 2017, p 8, http://mfa.gov.il/MFA/mashav/Publications/
Subject_Publications/Documents/Indo-Israeli%20Agricultural%20Project.pdf.
14 MBBR technology sets loose thousands of little biofilm carriers in the water body. Water passes through these balls and the bacteria is contained inside them.
15 “What Is Galmobile”, Financial Express, 2017. http://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/what- is-galmobile-how-israeli-technology-netanyahus-fascinating-jeep-can-solve-water-woes-in-modis-india/753 243/.
16 Singh, Prabhat. “6 Charts That Explain India’S Water Crisis”, Live Mint, 2015, http://www.livemint.com/ Opinion/97fuaF2aQkO9IjPiPAjMyL/Six-charts-that-explain-Indias-water-crisis.html.
17 Singh, Prabhat. “6 Charts That Explain India’S Water Crisis.” Live Mint, 2015, http://www.livemint.com/ Opinion/97fuaF2aQkO9IjPiPAjMyL/Six-charts-that-explain-Indias-water-crisis.html.
18 Federbush, Marjorie S, and Jerome C Muys, op cit.

Doklam Standoff Not Very Propitious For China’s Xi Jinping – Analysis

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As of now, Xi Jinping seems to be in a very strong position to have his way.

By H. H. S. Viswanathan

The Doklam standoff between the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) forces and the Indian army is now over a month and is the longest in recent years. It may be worthwhile to speculate the reasons and the timing of the PLA action. The questions that arise are “why now?” and at “what level was the decision taken?” Most border infringements are the actions by over-enthusiastic local commanders. But the length of the standoff and the full backing of it by the PLA forces could indicate that it has the blessings of higher authorities. In any case, PLA infringements  small or big  are usually within the overall Chinese policy which has three elements.

  • Consolidate the position where there is PLA control by upgrading infrastructure and building permanent assets,
  • Where both Indian and Chinese troops patrol at different times, follow a “salami slice” approach of slowly creeping in and staying put, and
  • Where Indians have a stronger position, have occasional provocations to test the waters.

The media coverage of the incident on both sides, particularly the belligerent positions taken by the Chinese now, make it difficult for them to have a compromise without a loss of face. Foreign Secretary Jaishankar’s comments (intentional or otherwise) to a question at an event in Singapore provided a small opening for the Chinese. He said “it is not the first time that it (Sino-Indian border dispute) has happened. How do you handle it is a test of our maturity. I see no reason, having handled so many situations in the past, that we will not handle this.” He added that “the two countries must not allow differences to become disputes.” The Chinese could have used this to tone down their rhetoric and allow the issue to cool down for the time being even if they did not intend to withdraw from their positions. But it was not to be and Beijing, instead, rebuffed the opening. China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Geng Shuang said that “this is different from the frictions of the past in the undefined sections of the border.”

There was speculation that the Chinese action was to teach India a lesson for not joining Xi Jinping’s pet project, the OBOR (One Belt One Road). India declined the invitation to attend the Belt and Road Forum Summit held in Beijing in May 2017, citing sovereignty issues over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor which runs through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. This argument to connect Doklam with OBOR seems farfetched because the Chinese government cannot expect India to change its mind because of such crude tactics. It could, on the other hand, harden India’s position.

They could be building up a small lobby of China sympathisers which, at present, does not seem to be significant. The message from the stand off to Bhutan could be that China would be prepared to swap disputed territories with Bhutan like the Doklam plateau for some territories in north Bhutan. It is, of course, well known that China has had many initiatives towards Bhutan in the recent past. Some Bhutanese youth receive scholarships to study in China. The wife of the Chinese Ambassador in New Delhi visited Thimpu recently and met with the King and Queen Mother ostensibly to discuss Buddhism.

Why is the timing of the incident not so propitious for Xi Jinping? For two reasons.

The first is the next BRICS Summit to be held in Xiamen (China) in September this year. China, as the host, would naturally like to make it a big success and another feather in Xi’s cap. As it is, the original hype for BRICS has gradually come down due to various reasons. Over the past few BRICS Summits, the world has seen the same ideas being repeated again and again. Of course, the establishment of the New Development Bank (INDB) and the Contingency Reserve Arrangement (CRA), and that too in a very short time, was undoubtedly a major achievement. But the contradictions and the strategic competition within BRICS have increased over the years, partly also due to various international developments. The contradiction and competition is more pronounced among China, India and Russia. There seems to be also a variance in the world view of these three. Given all these factors, it would take a lot of effort for the host country to project the Xiamen Summit as a runaway success. The current India-China standoff certainly will not help in this endeavour.

The second important event is the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), a very significant occasion that happens once in five years to set the course for the party and the country for the next ten years. A new Politburo and Politburo Standing Committee would be put in place. As of now, Xi Jinping seems to be in a very strong position to have his way. Ever since he took over as the General Secretary of the Party in 2012 and became President in 2013, he has been systematically consolidating his position. Under the anti-corruption drive, which seemed very popular with the common folk, he managed to sideline many of his rivals. The latest is the removal of the Governor of Chongqing, Sun Zhengcai. Five of the current members of the Politburo Standing Committee will have to quit at the Congress because of age limits. Only Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang will go on to the new Standing Committee. Reports indicate that Xi is making sure that the new members would be his proteges, mainly from the so called ‘Princelings’ meaning the sons/grandsons/nephews etc of erstwhile senior party leaders.

Some say that Xi may break with tradition and have a third term after 2022. The elevation of his position to “core leader” last year seems to be a step in that direction. These may be speculations, but there is no doubt about the ambitious nature of Xi. All these could be at risk if the Doklam standoff gets out of hand and China is faced with a situation of a loss of face. Any escalation from Xi’s point of view would be to ensure China’s dominance. But this is not a certainty. Even a limited skirmish can be blown up by the media. So, is the shrill rhetoric of the government controlled media in China counterproductive? The higher the rhetoric, the more difficult it would be for China to arrive at a compromise. It is also worth mentioning here that in the past two standoffs which lasted for a long time  one in Nathu La in 1967 and the other in Sumdorong Chu in 1986-87  China did not have very favourable results.

Taking into consideration all the above factors the best course of action would be:

  • To tone down the rhetoric and slowly take the issue away from the limelight, and
  • Follow it up with talks to defuse the tension and arrive at some kind of compromise, even if it is temporary.

But, as of now this seems impossible with China insisting on the withdrawal of Indian troops before they begin to negotiate. India will not be able to accept this pre-condition.

China Pushes Coal-Fired Power Plants Abroad – Analysis

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By Michael Lelyveld

As China scales back plans to build new coal-fired power plants for its domestic market, it is adding dozens more to the world total with similar projects abroad, environmental monitors say.

The building binge of overseas projects threatens to offset the environmental benefits from curbing expansion of coal power at home, according to recent reports.

As the world’s biggest carbon emitter, China is also the leading contributor to the boom in new coal power projects in developing countries.

According to a report by the Berlin-based environmental group Urgewald, some 1,500 new projects are planned by many countries at 850 locations around the world, boosting generating capacity by 43 percent.

Taken together, Chinese companies and investors represent the biggest source.

“The fleet of new coal plants would make it virtually impossible to meet the goals set in the Paris climate accord,” The New York Times said in a July 1 report.

China won praise from environmental groups in January after the National Energy Administration (NEA) announced the suspension of 103 planned coal power projects in 13 provinces, including some already under construction.

The cutback came after Greenpeace East Asia warned in late 2015 that China’s environmental authorities had approved plans for some 155 new coal plants despite utilization rates that had already dropped to the lowest level in 37 years.

The Urgewald report, based on data from the Global Coal Plant Tracker at http://endcoal.org/tracker/, suggests that the numbers of China’s new projects internationally could be far greater.

Chinese companies are either building or planning more than 700 coal power units with about one-fifth of the capacity abroad, said The Times.

China accounts for 45 percent of the projects in the database, according to Urgewald’s tally.

An RFA review of the data found that 15 Chinese companies are involved in planned coal power projects in 21 foreign countries, ranging from Pakistan to Indonesia, Vietnam, Iran, Jamaica and Zimbabwe.

The lengthy list suggests that China will keep increasing its global climate footprint, even as it reduces the rate of growth of carbon emissions on its own territory.

“If the Chinese government truly wants to position itself as a global climate leader, it needs to rein in its state-owned companies that are flooding the world with new coal power plants,” said Trusha Reddy, coordinator of the International Coal Network at Earthlife Africa in Johannesburg, as quoted by Urgewald.

One of the group’s main complaints is that large coal-fired projects have been slated for countries like Egypt and Malawi for the first time.

“Putting new coal plants in countries that have never had any coal plants before creates coal dependencies for decades to come,” the NGO said.

Big investments in the projects could force them to keep operating for 40 years or more, it said.

Big push for overseas projects

China’s broad push for overseas coal power projects may suggest a coordinated effort, possibly linked to “industrial capacity cooperation,” a government initiative to export entire industries and manufacturing processes to less developed countries.

Beijing has promoted the concept for its industries that have vast production overcapacity like steel and building materials, giving manufacturers an incentive to close surplus plants in China while opening facilities abroad.

Critics have charged that this amounts to exporting pollution, but Chinese officials have argued that the program is intended only “to help other countries beef up their manufacturing capability.”

For many of China’s less developed trade partners, industrial capacity cooperation has become intertwined with China’s other big overseas initiative—the “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) program to build infrastructure and trade routes through Asia to Africa and Europe.

But the push for foreign coal-fired projects predates both OBOR and industrial capacity cooperation, said Derek Scissors, an Asia economist and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

“Coal plant building by SOEs (state-owned enterprises) with supportive financing from state banks was happening well before OBOR,” Scissors said by email.

The effort has been driven largely by China’s capabilities rather than overcapacity.

“The original motive was that China built a ton of coal plants starting in 2003 and had gotten very good at it. Why not use that as a tool of foreign policy?” Scissors said.

Over time, China’s promotion of coal power has found its place among its other foreign policy initiatives, like OBOR.

“The government is definitely involved, both in terms of creating a framework for SOEs to want to do this for diplomatic reasons and helping them with loans to host countries. OBOR just adds a public relations exercise,” Scissors said.

‘The crown fits poorly’

Regardless of the rationale, environmental advocates are focused on the consequences of starting hundreds of new coal power projects in developing countries.

Urgewald has called for divestment and blacklisting of companies and financing sources that support the coal projects.

“This means no more loans, shareholdings, bondholdings, insurance contracts,” the group says.

It is unclear whether such opposition will have an effect on China’s SOEs with their backing from state bank financing, but the report could damage China’s image as a leader in the campaign against climate change.

“The crown fits poorly,” Derek Scissors said.

The proliferation of Chinese coal power projects has been part and parcel of its growing influence around the world.

But the thrust into foreign markets for coal-fired generation also goes against the grain of China’s own environmental policies.

“With a 25-percent decline in the commissioning of new coal-fired power plants, China’s energy investment is increasingly driven by low-carbon electricity supply and networks, and energy efficiency,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its World Energy Investment 2017 report this month.

According to the Paris-based IEA, China continued as the world’s largest destination of energy investment, accounting for 21 percent of the global total.

At a prerelease press conference for the study, IEA officials were asked about the impact of China’s investments in coal power overseas.

In response to a question from RFA, IEA energy investment analyst Michael Waldron cited “emerging overcapacity” among Chinese power companies as a result of the decline in final investment decisions for domestic coal projects.

So far, the effects of the overseas projects have not outweighed the benefits of suspending the planned projects at home, Waldron indicated.

“The decline in final investment decisions in China is not being made up for on a one-for-one basis by an increase of Chinese investments in coal power in some other parts of the world,” said Waldron.

“But indeed, there are some Chinese companies that are undertaking and are looking increasingly to do investments in other parts of the world,” he said.

Philippines: Bishops Outraged At Duterte Plan To Scrap Rights Body

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At least two Catholic bishops have attacked Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte after he announced he intends to abolish the country’s human rights commission.

Bishop Arturo Bastes of Sorsogon said the president was “out of his mind.”

In his State of the Nation Address on July 24, Duterte said he wanted to shut down the commission, which has issued statements criticizing the president’s anti-narcotics war.

The president lambasted the human rights body for being silent over killings perpetrated by suspected drug addicts.

Retired Bishop Teodoro Bacani of Novaliches said the president cannot just abolish the commission because it was “created and protected” by the Philippine Constitution.

The prelate, who is one of the authors of the 1987 Constitution, called on Filipinos to pray for Duterte to regain his “good sense.”

Bishop Bacani said that the commission, which is tasked by law to monitor and document human rights abuses, can only be abolished through a constitutional amendment.

Bishop Bastes said Duterte’s threat to scrap the commission only shows that he has “no knowledge about how government should operate in a democratic society.”

“His desire to abolish [the commission] is a sign that he has a dangerous tendency to be a dictator,” said the prelate.

South Ossetia To Abolish Georgian Schools

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(Civil.Ge) — The Russian-backed authorities in Tskhinvali Region/South Ossetia will abolish the Georgian language schooling in the region’s ethnic Georgian populated areas beginning from the 2017/2018 academic year.

On July 26, the region’s ‘deputy minister of education’ Elisa Gagloeva said that “the ministry of education has done preparatory work this year for transferring the Georgian schools of the republic [of South Ossetia] to the state educational standard.”

“This means that the Russian and the Ossetian language components have been significantly strengthened in the curriculum and that all subjects [from now on] will be taught in Russian,” Gagloeva also noted, adding that the change concerns Georgian schools in Akhalgori Municipality (six schools), as well as one school each in the occupied portions of Sachkhere and Kareli Municipalities.*

As a result of the change, the Georgian language will be reduced to a single subject.

On June 9, the new South Ossetian leader Anatoly Bibilov visited Akhalgori Municipality, where he expressed dissatisfaction over the fact that education in some local schools was conducted in the Georgian language and tasked his officials with transferring the schools to the same educational system as in the rest of the region.

The move follows the pattern established in the Gali District in Abkhazia, where 31 Georgian schools remaining after the war of 1992-1993 were gradually moved to Russian-language schooling. The last 11 Georgian schools in the Gali District were abolished in 2015.

* The areas were under the jurisdiction of the central government before the 2008 Russo-Georgian War.

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