Quantcast
Channel: Eurasia Review
Viewing all 73339 articles
Browse latest View live

Ron Paul: Will Congress And Trump Declare War On WikiLeaks? – OpEd

0
0

The Senate Intelligence Committee recently passed its Intelligence Authorization Act for 2018 that contains a chilling attack on the First Amendment. Section 623 of the act expresses the “sense of Congress” that WikiLeaks resembles a “non-state hostile intelligence service often abetted by state actors and should be treated as such.” This language is designed to delegitimize WikiLeaks, encourage the federal government to spy on individuals working with WikiLeaks, and block access to WikiLeaks’ website. This provision could even justify sending US forces abroad to arrest WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange or other WikiLeaks personnel.

WikiLeaks critics claim that the organization’s leaks harm US national security. However, these critics are unable to provide a single specific example of WikiLeaks’ actions harming the American people. WikiLeaks does harm the reputations of government agencies and politicians, however. For example, earlier this year WikiLeaks released information on the CIA’s hacking program. The leaks did not reveal any details on operations against foreign targets, but they did let the American people know how easy it is for the government to hack into their electronic devices.

For the last year, most of the news surrounding WikiLeaks has centered on its leak of emails showing how prominent Democrats worked to undermine Senator Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign. In order to deflect attention from these revelations, Democrats, aided by their allies in the media and even some Republicans, promulgated a conspiracy theory blaming the leaks on Russian hackers working to defeat Hillary Clinton. Even though there is no evidence the Russians were behind the leaks, many in both parties are still peddling the “Putin did it” narrative. This aids an effort by the deep state and its allies in Congress and the media to delegitimize last year’s election, advance a new Cold War with Russia, and criminalize WikiLeaks.

If the government is successful in shutting down WikiLeaks by labeling it a “hostile intelligence service,” it will use this tactic to silence other organizations and websites as well. The goal will be to create a climate of fear to ensure no one dares publish the revelations of a future Edward Snowden or Chelsea Manning.

Some have suggested that criticizing police brutality, the surveillance state, the Federal Reserve, or even federal spending aids “hostile foreign powers” by weakening the people’s “trust in government.” This line of reasoning could be used to silence, in the name of “national security,” websites critical of the welfare-warfare state.

By labeling WikiLeaks a “hostile intelligence service” and thus legitimizing government action against the organization, the Senate Intelligence Authorization Act threatens the ability of whistleblowers to inform the public about government misdeeds. It also sets a precedent that could be used to limit other types of free speech.

President Trump should make it clear he will veto any bill giving government new powers to silence organizations like WikiLeaks. If President Trump supports the war on WikiLeaks, after candidate Trump proclaimed his love for WikiLeaks, it will be further proof that he has outsourced his presidency to the deep state.

WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, along with notable whistleblowers, foreign policy experts, and leading champions of peace and liberty, will be addressing this important issue at my Institute for Peace and Prosperity’s conference on Saturday, September 9 at the Dulles Airport Marriott Hotel in Dulles, Virginia outside of Washington, D.C. You can get more information about the conference and purchase tickets at the Ron Paul Institute.

This article was published by RonPaul Institute.


Trump Says US Protective Of Baltic Region, Declines To Call Russia A Threat

0
0

By Mike Eckel

(RFE/RL) — U.S. President Donald Trump repeated his arguments that Washington should have a better relationship with Moscow, as he declined to describe Russia’s actions in Europe in recent years as a threat.

Speaking August 28 at a joint news conference with visiting Finnish President Sauli Niinisto, Trump was asked by Finnish reporters about tensions with Russia, and specifically whether he considered it a threat.

“I consider many countries as a security threat unfortunately,” he said. “I would consider many countries threats but these are all threats that we will be able to handle if we have to.”

Asked further about recent joint naval exercises held by Russia and China in the Baltic Sea, and upcoming war games scheduled for next month in regions bordering the Baltic countries, Trump replied: “We are very protective of that region.”

“That’s all I can say. We are very, very protective. We have great friends there,” he said.

“I say it loud and clear: I’ve been saying it for years. I think it’s a good thing if we have great relationships, or at least good relationships, with Russia,” he said. “That’s very important and I believe that someday that will happen. It’s a big country. It’s a nuclear country. It’s a country that we should get along with.”

Trump has repeatedly called for a more conciliatory approach toward Russia, even as suspicions mount about interactions between current and former Trump associates and Russian officials.

The FBI has had a criminal investigation ongoing since last year, a probe since taken over by special counsel Robert Mueller.

And at least three different congressional committees are looking into those suspicious interactions, as well as U.S. intelligence conclusions that Russia interfered in last year’s presidential election.

Germany: Nurse Suspected Of Killing At Least 90 Patients

0
0

A German nurse jailed two years ago for the murder of two patients in his care is suspected of involvement in at least 90 murders, according to police. Niels Hoegel admitted in 2015 to deliberately endangering patients’ lives in so he could try to revive them!

“This number is exceptional, unique in the history of the German republic,” head of the inquiry committee, Arne Schmidt said, reported 7 News, citing AFP.

Currently serving a life sentence, Hoegel admitted to injecting 30 patients at a clinic in Delmenhorst, northern Germany, with deadly doses of heart medication. He then attempted to resuscitate them, claiming he felt elated when he succeeded and devastated when he failed.

Last year the bodies of 130 former patients were exhumed following a court order, with police detecting evidence of Hoegel’s involvement in additional murders. A statement from police says an exact figure on casualties cannot be confirmed.

Hoegel’s activity came to light in 2005 when a colleague witnessed him injecting a patient. The patient survived with Hoegel sentenced to seven and a half years in jail for attempted murder in 2008.

The daughter of a deceased woman came forward suspecting Hoegel’s involvement in her mother’s death, leading to an investigation which saw him admit guilt in 30 cases, naming the patients he killed.

Bangladesh: Christians Rush To Provide Aid To Flood Victims

0
0

Church agencies and Christian organizations have been assisting victims of recent flooding that left tens of thousands marooned in the north and northeast of Bangladesh.

Caritas in Dinajpur, one of the worst affected areas provided food and clothes to some 4,500 people residing in dozens of flood shelters. Meanwhile, Caritas in Rajshahi has offered meals to 1,500 people.

Church parishes, schools and boarding hostels have been flood shelters for hundreds of people throughout August. Churches and Christian groups have appealed to Christians to offer cash and daily essentials for flood victims.

“We couldn’t do much to help victims at this stage, except supply food to flood shelters. Flood damage has been enormous, and we would like to offer complete rehabilitation package to victims. All will depend on the generosity of donor agencies,” Uzzal Ekka, program officer of Disaster Management at Caritas Dinajpur told ucanews.com.

The Bangladesh Christian Association (BCA), the country’s largest Christian forum, has also collected donations and started distribution among flood victims.

“We are distributing lungi and saris for the victims. We have also collected more money, so we can buy more items as necessary. Since Eid-ul-Azha is approaching, we have focused on new clothing as Eid gifts for victims,” Nirmol Rozario, BCA president told ucanews.com.

Triggered by heavy monsoon rain and high water levels coming downstream in rivers from India, flooding has affected 7.6 million and killed 137 people in Bangladesh, according the country’s Disaster Management department.

About 689,800 houses and crops on 11,400 hectares of lands have been destroyed.

About 41 million people in Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Bhutan have been affected by some of the worst flooding in decades, according to United Nations.

Guatemala: Presidential Order Threatens Rule Of Law, Says HRW

0
0

Guatemalan President Jimmy Morales’s order to expel the head of a United Nations-supported anti-corruption commission is a grave threat to the rule of law in Guatemala and should be reversed, Human Rights Watch said.

On Sunday August 27, 2017, Morales ordered Ivan Velásquez, the head of the UN-backed International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), to be expelled from Guatemala. The move came two days after Velásquez and Guatemalan Attorney General Thelma Aldana announced they were investigating the president’s party for illegal campaign financing and filed a petition with the courts to lift the president’s immunity.

“Rather than submit to an independent investigation, President Morales has cast his lot with the powerful mafias who have come to fear justice since Velásquez showed up, and are desperate to see him gone,” said Daniel Wilkinson, Americas managing director at Human Rights Watch.

Hours after the president’s announcement, the Constitutional Court provisionally granted three appeals in favor of Velásquez and suspended the expulsion order pending final rulings by the court, which could take weeks.

In a televised statement, Morales claimed that Velásquez had exercised “illegitimate, illegal, and unconstitutional” pressure on the Guatemalan Congress by advocating in favor of the constitutional reforms currently under discussion. He also said that Velásquez had violated the right to the presumption of innocence by publicly announcing the cases that CICIG is investigating. However, such announcements have long been common practice, while the agreement between the Guatemalan government and the UN expressly authorizes CICIG to propose public policies and legal reforms.
Since Velásquez’s appointment as commissioner in 2013, Guatemala has made unprecedented progress in tackling corruption and the abuse of power by government officials. Most notably, in 2015, joint investigations by the commission and the Attorney General’s Office exposed multiple corruption schemes, implicating officials in all three branches of government, and prompting the resignation of the country’s then-president and vice president. The two are now in jail awaiting trial.

 

Morales took office in January 2016 and in April of that year asked the UN to extend the commission’s mandate – which had been set to expire in 2017 – until September 2019. In September 2016, the commission and the Attorney General’s Office announced that they were investigating the president’s son José Manuel Morales and brother, Samuel Morales, for alleged fraud committed prior to his term. The two were arrested in January and are awaiting trial.

The president’s political party is under investigation for alleged illicit financing during the 2015 presidential campaign. Initial investigations revealed evidence that the party failed to report at least US$ 900,000 in campaign funds to the relevant authorities. At a news conference held on August 25, Aldana and Velásquez announced that they had presented a request to strip the immunity of President Morales – who was secretary-general of his political party during the campaign – in order to proceed with investigations.

The president’s decision has been strongly criticized within Guatemala. The national human rights commissioner, the solicitor general, and the national comptroller all issued statements expressing their disagreement with the President. Several senior administration officials resigned in protest, including the minister for public health and social assistance, the national commissioner for competitiveness, the country’s three deputy health ministers, and the vice-minister for foreign affairs. Aldana, who announced on August 22 that she would resign as attorney general if the president expelled Velásquez, expressed support for the commissioner and said she would remain in office for the time being after the Constitutional Court suspended the president’s order.

“The expulsion of Velásquez could have devastating consequences for Guatemala’s efforts to combat corruption and organized crime,” Wilkinson said. “Democratic leaders and institutions in Guatemala, as well as international allies and partners, should join forces in pressing President Morales to reverse this outrageous and dangerous order.”

Amazon Starts Price War On Organic Foods

0
0

(EurActiv) — Amazon announced discounts on “Whole Foods” products, soon after US antitrust authority and Whole Foods shareholders authorized the e-commerce giant to acquire the specialty organic foods chain.

Amazon is shaking the wholesale distribution sector, particularly in the food business, by announcing a cut in prices for bananas, avocados and other products sold by the organic Whole Foods chain, which it has bought for $ 13.7 billion ($ 11.7 billion euros).

“We will lower Whole Foods prices without compromising product quality,” said Jeff Wilke, head of Amazon Worldwide Consumer. Amazon will put into practice its new pricing policy as of Monday (28 August), when its acquisition of Whole Foods will be completed.

The news had the ring of a price war, and the securities of food-related companies listed on the stock market have taken note of it.

Cuts will cover a selection of Whole Foods products, but other discounts will come later. Whole Foods branded products will also be sold online by Amazon, and Amazon lockers (lockers serving to pick up online orders) will be installed at some Whole Foods outlets, present in the United States, Canada and in the United Kingdom. Additionally, Amazon Prime members will receive additional discounts. Wilke has assured that discounts will not in any way compromise the quality offered in Whole Foods stores.

Additionally, Amazon Prime members will receive additional discounts. Wilke has assured that discounts will not in any way compromise the quality offered in Whole Foods stores.

Amazon’s announcement was in the air. Prior to its acquisition, Whole Foods was known as an exclusive and very expensive supermarket. After this move, Whole Foods will probably no longer be called sarcastically “Whole Paycheck”, or full salary. The e-commerce giant revealed its plans after the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) approved the merger and Whole Foods shareholders voted in favour.

Once again Jeff Bezos’s company proved to be fierce: it completed the acquisition in three months and immediately undertook a price-cutting campaign. Proving once again Bezos is engaging in a new price war, always willing to lose money to challenge the competition. Nearly every time he did so, as with books, he changed the rules of the game.

Now the same could happen with organic foods. This market is gaining more and more space in traditional distribution chains, and not just US ones. There are obviously many concerns in the industry, even though the FTC did not believe there were threats to competition from the merger. Antitrust attorneys have noted that Amazon and Whole Foods are relatively small players in the food business and are differently positioned on this market, with Amazon selling online groceries and Whole Foods in retail shop sales.

Is India’s Sri Lanka Policy Working At All? – Analysis

0
0

The turning out of the Trincomalee oil tanks deal for India and the Hambantota port deal for China are only indicative of the massive trust deficit or leverage the two competing powers have in Sri Lanka.

By Avijit Goel

Relative to its size, Sri Lanka probably punches highest above its weight in geostrategic importance, in South Asia. Though size has mostly been an incorrect and incomplete indicator in determining strategic thrust, few nations would be as closely watched, or presented with choices as this island nation.

A common comparison you hear from the Colombo intelligentsia is between the vastly differing economic fortunes of Sri Lanka and Singapore. Drawing similarities as erstwhile British colonies, significant trading settlements — given their locations on major shipping routes, a massive neighbour to each of their north and complete independence just seven years apart (Singapore, from Malaysia in 1965 and Sri Lanka from the Dominion status in the Commonwealth in 1972), the ambitious comparison is indicative of one national trait — Sri Lanka is a country in a hurry.

Since the end of the three decade civil war in 2008, Sri Lanka started to focus on long-term strategic and structural development challenges as it strived to transition to an upper middle income country. Post-war, the country almost moved into an economic mission mode, with fervent zeal towards making up for the lost civil war decades. This, under the leadership of their war hero and President, Mahinda Rajapaksa, who promised economic deliverance as sure as the recent military one.

Post-war behaviour on the winning side makes for an interesting study. If history is a bellwether, there have been cases of rapprochement with or humiliation of the losing side in equal measure. However, one thing has mostly stood true of the winners — the new found confidence leads to assertion with the rest of the ecosystem, and in this case, it has been more about economic and geopolitical self-assertion by Sri Lanka.

Rightly or not, a common association for most of the civil war years in the Sinhala mind was that of LTTE and India. Historically, given India’s extremely complex and troubled relationship with the LTTE and the subsequent bloodletting in the Indian political establishment, the price of this troubled association is being paid for even today — in the form of Sinhala suspicion of Indian goodwill. It is easy in the Sinhala nationalistic narrative to create a spin or conspiracy theory out of India’s intentions, as innocuous as they might be.

In India’s modern history, no relationship has been as exacting as the one with the LTTE. (A few thousand soldiers, an ex-Prime Minister and a perpetual sense of suspicion with a geostrategic neighbour).

Nationalistic baggage, especially directed at a perceived wrongdoer, takes years of sustained effort and goodwill by the accused to wear off. This baggage, though less vicious or relevant now, still rears its ugly head when the country walks the tightrope between India and China. If it, really is, a tightrope for Sri Lanka.

In all that is said of Indian and Chinese roles in Sri Lanka, it is important to realise one reality — there isn’t really an Indian side and a Chinese side in the Sri Lankan political establishment at this time (even if there is, the Indian side has little underpinning or sanction). It can sound negative, but the popular and political narrative in Sri Lanka finally tilts largely in China’s favour, regardless of the power structure in place. In layman terms, it is a Chinese party with Sri Lanka, and India isn’t invited.

When India helps infrastructure projects in the north and east of Sri Lanka, the suspicion is on India only investing in the Tamil majority provinces of the country. When India wished to set up the 500 MW Sampur power plant in Trincomalee, efforts for the same were stymied by the Rajapaksa regime for more than a decade, leading to the project being cancelled (In the new bilateral MOU, the plan is to set up a 50 MW solar plant in Sampur now). The Indian aided ambulance service, where 88 ambulances were given out as an outright grant stand as small examples against the sheer size of perceived investments and grants by China.

When India (through the Indian Oil Corporation subsidiary Lanka IOC) proposed to joint venture with Sri Lanka in handling 84 oil storage tanks in Trincomalee (Lanka IOC already runs 15 of the 99 storage tanks), there was a severe backlash from the workers at the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation who charged that India would have critical control and influence over fuel prices in Sri Lanka. The deal was rescinded and the popular narrative was so strong that the Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe had to give in writing to the striking workers that no agreement on Trincomalee oil tanks would be signed with India during his Delhi trip in April this year.

Ranil assured the striking union workers that the MoU, including Trinco’s oil tanks to be signed in Delhi would be limited only to a political agreement. The legal agreement would be done only after consultations with the workers of the CPC. This was just a small reflection of the strong nationalist sentiment in the island nation over Indian control of the strategic ports and installations.

Ranil was walking the tightrope by trying to mitigate Indian concerns over China’s huge investments in strategic projects like Colombo port city and Hambantota port — by also giving India a share of the port infrastructure pie. It now remains a distant reality for India to handle the 84 storage tanks as the CPC union intends to rescind India’s handling of even the existing 15 tanks.

Not that Chinese projects have been protest or controversy free. When local protests for the loss of their lands and sovereignty at the Chinese developed Hambantota deep sea port project turned violent, the deal wasn’t rescinded, but ‘reworked’ by the Government of Sri Lanka.

Now, under the new reworked deal, Sri Lanka would divide the management of Hambantota into two firms — a business side and a security side. This revision envisages that the business side would be in majority control of China Merchants Port Holding (CM Port), a Chinese state-run company. The security side would have a controlling stake of SLPA (Sri Lanka Port Authority). Ostensibly, this means that the agreement gives Sri Lanka full control over security matters, as also the right to inspect ships entering the port.

The devil might lie in the details here, as the holding structures of both the firms indicate complex and final Chinese majority control over both the firms. If this is the case, it is a cause of deepening concern for India, which has been assured by Sri Lanka that its ports would only be for economic and not military cooperation with China. Furthermore, against a debt relief of $1.1 billion, it removes only a small portion of the debt dependence of Sri Lanka to China. (Sri Lanka owes $8 billion in debt to China, and over one-third of its government revenue goes into servicing that debt. India’s development portfolio in Sri Lanka is about US $2.6 billion, out of which US $436 million is pure grants). The existing regime of President Sirisena recently sacked the Justice Minister over his criticism of the Hambantota Port deal, further underscoring the importance and brooking of a little criticism for the China-Sri Lanka arrangement.

Though India’s policy in Sri Lanka has mostly been termed reactive to Chinese strategic thrusts, it makes for thinking whether Indian proactive measures also have sizeable or desired impact in recent times. Modi’s Neighbourhood First policy and constructive engagement with Sri Lankan leaders does generate goodwill within the island, but is it really enough at this time. The recently signed MOU between the countries and increased scope of a bilateral pact covering 10 new project areas in Sri Lanka, which are part of India’s effort of a joint economic development in the neighbourhood, might hopefully make for some good news in the future.

However, the turning out of the Trincomalee oil tanks deal for India and the Hambantota port deal for China are only indicative of the massive trust deficit or leverage the two competing powers have in Sri Lanka.

While some analysts believe that the popular and the political narrative diverge in Sri Lanka, the past few years have seen substantial convergence of the same. Sri Lanka was India’s only neighbour apart from Pakistan to have someone of the seniority of its Prime Minister attend and endorse the OBOR summit in May this year.

For a country with an enticing position along lucrative and strategic Indian Ocean maritime routes, Sri Lanka’s choices are clear — at least for now.

Robert Reich: What Do Democrats Stand For? – OpEd

0
0

The Democratic Party can lead the country in a new direction, but will it?

Millions of Americans who are politically engaged for the first time in their lives are crying out for a bold alternative to bigoted and destructive policies.

But Democrats can’t just be anti-Trump or move to the middle.

To be successful Democrats must address the forces that created Trump: The toxic combination of widening inequality and racism.

The richest one percent now own more than the bottom 90 percent. Corporations and the rich are running our politics.

The resulting economic stresses have made many people vulnerable to Trump’s politics of hate and bigotry.

If Democrats stand for one thing, it must be overcoming this unprecedented economic imbalance and creating a multi-racial, multi-ethnic coalition of the bottom 90 percent, to take back our economy and politics.

This requires, at the least:

1. Public investments in world-class schools and infrastructure for all.

2. Free public universities and first-class technical training for all;

3. Single-payer Medicare-for-All;

4. Higher taxes on the wealthy to pay for this;

5. Using antitrust to break up powerful monopolies on Wall Street, Big Tech, Big Pharma, and Big Agriculture.

6. Getting big money out of our politics.

Together, these steps form an agenda to reclaim our economy and democracy for all. Will Democrats lead the way?


Vatican, Moscow And China: A New Global Religious And Spiritual Hegemony – Analysis

0
0

By Giancarlo Elia Valori*

The record is substantially positive. This is how Cardinal Parolin has summarized the results of his recent visit to the Russian Federation.Firstly, there is the Russian Catholic community to protect, with 300 parishes and 270 priests – mostly non-Russians, but Poles, Lithuanians, Germans, Ukrainians – as well as an Archbishop of Moscow, namely the Italian Paolo Pezzi, coming from the movement of “Communion and Liberation”, who is an expert in Russian political, cultural and religious issues.

A brilliant prelate to be supported, having a profound knowledge of Russian issues and Orthodox theology.

It is worth recalling that Pope Francis shook hand with Patriarch Kirill in the first historic meeting held in Havana last year between the two highest representatives of the 1054 schism.

An action that was favourably viewed by the United States and supported by the whole Cuban people.

This is a diplomatic success of which the Pope will soon take advantage.

Finally, Pope Francis is no longer very interested in the Eastern schism and in its doctrinal, theological and strategic connotation.

If anything, Pope Francis is interested in a new alliance between Russia, the Catholic Church of Rome and, in the future, China, so as to put an end to the Western Church’s geopolitical dependence on the Euro-American West.

As explicitly stated, the Pope no longer wants to only be the spokesman of Western civilization, which is now dechristianized.

As Cardinal Parolin himself has recalled, he is the first High Representative of the Catholic Church to visit Moscow after the Crimean War.

This is an essential political and symbolic aspect to mark the distance between the Vatican and the Atlantic axis between Western Europe and the United States.

With Foreign Minister Lavrov, whom Cardinal Secretary of State met in Moscow, a clear agreement was reached quickly: the Russian forces’ de facto protection of all religious minorities in the Middle East.

And to think that, in this case, the United States have even come to blame Russia for “penalizing” the so-called moderate jihadists that NATO and the United States keep on training in Syria and in other parts of the world.

Therefore the Vatican explicitly views the Kremlin’s pro-Assad policy favourably, together with the Syrian Christian community – in all its various forms – that continues to live in Syria and the Middle East, protected by Russia and Bashar al-Assad’s Alawites much more than by the “moderate” jihad that, since the time of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, is still at the core of US operations in that region.

Considering the current condition of Catholics in Russia, there was some foreseeable friction between Minister Lavrov and Cardinal Parolin.

Apart from the practical freedom to profess the Catholic faith, one of the issue at stake is the ownership of churches and palaces of the Russian Catholic Church, confiscated by the Soviet regime and never returned to the legitimate owners after the USSR collapse in spite of the favourable court judgments for the Church of Rome in Russia.

Catholics in Russia are few – approximately 800,000, accounting for 0.5% of the total population. Nevertheless, the true strategic aim is not the number, but the quality of the Vatican and Russian joint strategic actions: the goal is exactly Pope Francis’ visit to Russia.

It would be the seal of a Catholic Church that – as at the time of Pope John Paul II – anticipates and overcomes the end of the Cold War, thus envisaging a link between the Vatican and the emerging powers of the Eurasian Heartland, which is now the alternative to a weak and dangerous strategic link between the Vatican and the consumerist and scientist atheism currently in power in the Euro-American West.

It is now clear that Pope Francis does not like this West at all: a universe without God that is heading for a quick, ethical and anthropological cupio dissolvi.

In fact, the Pope prefers the areas of the world in which the Catholic Church can still serve as “field hospital” and operate in a cultural universe in which religion, even the non-Catholic one, is respected.

Better a Confucian than a naive European atheist, only believing in science (he/she does not know) and in the freedom of instincts.

Here Cardinal Parolin’s and the Pope’s ideas are on the same wavelength as those of Patriarch Kirill, who wants fewer links between the Orthodox Church and the Russian State, as well as a spiritual status not far from the Kremlin, but autonomous from Putin’s line of politique d’abord (politics, first of all).

A system envisaging Patriarch Kirill as the world leader of the Orthodox Church and Pope Francis as the world inevitable leader of Catholicism, designed to build – also after the agreement with the Chinese government – a sort of new global religious and spiritual hegemony, outside the subjection to Westernism for the Vatican, and lateral to the Russian strategic interest for Patriarch Kirill.

The central political factor of this new geo-religious system is the Ukrainian question.

The extraordinary fundraising campaign launched by Pope Francis for Ukraine, which has been operating since 2014, has had positive impact on the Russian Orthodox Church and the whole community of believers. The success has been great (1 million and 230 thousand euros have been collected) and it has proved that the Vatican – even in the charitable and universalistic dimension characterizing it – does not think in the same way as the Western powers currently operating in the Ukrainian theater of operations.

While the West currently operates in the war-stricken regions with an inept internationalism, the Vatican of Cardinal Parolin and Pope Francis is still based on the traditional and unsurpassed “law of nations” (ius gentium) – and on a reasonable and never sectarian respect for nationality, ethnicity, borders and legitimate States.

Pope Francis’ and Cardinal Parolin’s law is, first and foremost, humanitarian law: agreements between the parties, wherever possible; immediate release of prisoners, a theme that alone can break through the political situation; truce and cease-fire are all actions that the Vatican is putting in place to solve the Ukrainian crisis.

And possibly solve also the tension in Syria where, since 2011, the two million Catholic believers have fallen to one only.

In Iraq, Christians have currently fallen from 300,000 to 200,000.

In Syria a real “war against Christians” is being waged – as recently stated by Jacques Benhan Hindo, the Syrian-Catholic Archbishop of Hassakè-Nisibi, the diocese in which Raqqa is located – while the YPG Kurds behave very badly with the various Christian churches still present there.

It can be easily foreseen that these Kurds will be abandoned by the United States as soon as it has exploited them fully and all the way.

Daesh-Isis is supported by Turkey and the United States, while the Christian communities are protected – within the limits of their areas and fields of competence – by the Russian soldiers and Bashar al-Assad’s forces.

In such a situation, certainly Pope Francis’ Church cannot fully work, but it can certainly unite the basic religious and ethnic communities and make them act as parties in the future negotiations.

An operation that could more easily take place in Ukraine.

In fact, if Syria is broken up – as is increasingly likely – the Shiite axis between Bashar al-Assad’s area and Iran – which was at the origin of the Sunni and jihadist war against the Syrian Baathist regime – will be strengthened, while Russia will become the true strategic player in the region, with the United States relegated to the rank of mere counterparts of Qatar (funding Al Nusra) and Saudi Arabia (funding Isis-Daesh).

Hence the Christian traditions are being eradicated in Syria and in rest of the Middle East with a view to fostering the final clash between Shiites and Sunnis – a clash that the Vatican does not want and will do its utmost, with Russia and China, to avoid.

A clash between Shiites and Sunnis – “a piecemeal World War Three”, just to use Pope Francis’ expression – in which Westerners side with the Sunnis, thus preparing other years of blood and destruction for them and for the Middle East.

As already happened with Cuba, in the new world context it will be the Vatican to bring the United States and Russia closer at the right time.

Possibly with a new agreement for the Middle East, as is said in the Vatican Secretary of State’s office.

This will exactly be the purpose of Pope Francis’ and Cardinal Parolin’s “geopolitics of mercy”.

With a tough statement made in September 2013 the Pope condemned the United States for wanting to overthrow Assad with missiles, but there is another point of agreement between Putin and the Pope, namely the defense of the traditional family.

The Kremlin leader has repeatedly condemned the Western “nihilistic drift”, as well as the obsessive and philosophically unreasonable confidence in Reason. On the media both Patriarch Kirill and President Putin often repeat the old statement made by former Pope Benedict XVI whereby “the worst enemy of the West is the West itself”.

Furthermore, the schism could be doctrinally overcome with a statement – that Patriarch Kirill had already suggested – in which it is accepted that the Pope, the Patriarch of Rome, is the protos among the Patriarchs of the other Churches – on the basis of the document discussed in 2008 on the island of Crete, regarding the history and identity of the Churches before and after the Great Schism.

This is another theme that will soon come to its natural fulfillment in the diplomatic practice of mercy established by Cardinal Parolin and Pope Francis.

About the author:
*Professor Giancarlo Elia Valori
is an eminent Italian economist and businessman. He holds prestigious academic distinctions and national orders. Mr Valori has lectured on international affairs and economics at the world’s leading universities such as Peking University, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Yeshiva University in New York. He currently chairs “La Centrale Finanziaria Generale Spa”, he is also the honorary president of Huawei Italy, economic adviser to the Chinese giant HNA Group and member of the Ayan-Holding Board. In 1992 he was appointed Officier de la Légion d’Honneur de la République Francaise, with this motivation: “A man who can see across borders to understand the world” and in 2002 he received the title of “Honorable” of the Académie des Sciences de l’Institut de France

Source:
This article was published by Modern Diplomacy

Afghanistan-Pakistan-US: Radical Redirection – Analysis

0
0

By Ajai Sahni*

There has been a tremendous and polarizing response to US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a “new integrated strategy for the U.S. approach to South Asia”, in particular, his approach to the Afghanistan-Pakistan conundrum. However, most commentary, other than that of Trump’s committed partisans, has been dismissive of this new approach, abruptly writing it off as ‘old wine in new bottles’; pointing to its commonalities with past and demonstrably failed strategies – particularly including those of the precedent administration of President Barack Obama; criticizing it for its excessive reliance on use of force, when ‘history’ has apparently demonstrated that ‘military solutions don’t work’, and so forth.

But Trump’s strategy deserves close attention because it does, in fact, contain radically original elements, and also because, irrespective of its actual implementation and eventual probabilities of success, it will – indeed, has already begun to – dramatically alter the geo-strategic environment of South Asia and the wider Asian region.

Broad-stroke counter-terrorism options with regard to the AfPak region are, of course, limited. Simply put, they are exhausted by the choice between reliance on use of force, on the one hand, and negotiated settlements, on the other. Both have been tried fitfully – or have been indiscriminately mixed in – over the past decades, and it is not just the ‘military solution’ that has been unsuccessful; negotiations have gone nowhere as well.

Behind the sweeping generalizations on use of force and negotiations, however, are an infinity of graded options and priorities, and it is here that Trump – or, more likely, to borrow a currently popular phrase, the ‘adults in his administration’ – breaks sharply with the past. It is useful to examine some of the innovations of this new approach.

First, it must be enormously emphasized, Trump’s AfPak (he does not call it so, but it is a useful contraction) is by no means a simple repackaging of Obama’s AfPak, though he also proposes an increase (surge) in US armed presence in Afghanistan. Indeed, for those who study these issues with any measure of seriousness and non-partisan commitment, the inevitable failure of Obama’s AfPak policy was evident from the very moment of its announcement. Among its many disastrous elements, the most self-destructive was the announcement of a predetermined draw-down schedule. Indeed, the underlying logic of the ‘surge’ – the pivot of Obama’s AfPak policy – was the puerile argument that, since adding 30,000 troops in Iraq had ‘succeeded’, this magical number would also prevail in Afghanistan within an arbitrary and publicly announced timeframe, presenting Pakistan and its proxies in Afghanistan with a promise of preordained victory if they could simply outlast the deadline.

The new strategy explicitly recognizes the folly of offering a determined adversary with, as Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson expressed it in a Press Statement released on August 21, 2017, “artificial calendar-based deadlines”. Instead, he declared, “We are making clear to the Taliban that they will not win on the battlefield… ”

Announcing his South Asia Policy on the same date, President Trump reiterated,

A core pillar of our new strategy is a shift from a time-based approach to one based on conditions. I’ve said it many times how counterproductive it is for the United States to announce in advance the dates we intend to begin, or end, military options. We will not talk about numbers of troops or our plans for further military activities. Conditions on the ground – not arbitrary timetables – will guide our strategy from now on. America’s enemies must never know our plans or believe they can wait us out. I will not say when we are going to attack, but attack we will.

Trump had, in his election campaigns, clearly advocated an exit from Afghanistan – something President Obama also sought, but failed to achieve in full measure – but has recognized the error of this perspective, noting, “The men and women who serve our nation in combat deserve a plan for victory… the consequences of a rapid exit are both predictable and unacceptable… A hasty withdrawal would create a vacuum that terrorists, including ISIS and al Qaeda, would instantly fill…”

The Obama and preceding George W. Bush administrations had both recognized Pakistan’s dubious role in the troubles in Afghanistan, but always sought to tread softly or, after a particularly harsh statement (for instance, then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s remark in Islamabad, “you can’t keep snakes in your backyard and expect them only to bite your neighbours”; or, earlier, then Secretary of State, Richard Armitage’s alleged threat, confirmed by then President Pervez Musharraf, to ‘bomb Pakistan back into the stone age’), to quickly mollify Pakistan with aid and generous praise of its ‘great sacrifices’ and role in the ‘war on terror’.

Trump is far less compromising: “Today, 20 U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organizations are active in Afghanistan and Pakistan – the highest concentration in any region anywhere in the world… Pakistan often gives safe haven to agents of chaos, violence, and terror.” Trump then commits himself “to stripping terrorists of their territory, cutting off their funding, and exposing the false allure of their evil ideology.”

Significantly, US funding to Pakistan has been gradually drying up, and committed resources were recently blocked by Congress because the Secretary of Defence refused to certify that Islamabad had ‘done enough’ against terrorist formations – particularly the Haqqani Network – operating from its soil into Afghanistan. Several terrorist formations – proxies of Pakistani state entities – operating in Afghanistan and in India, have also been put on to the US proscribed terrorist organizations’ list by successive US administrations, the latest being the Hizb-ul-Mujahiddeen, headquartered at Muzaffarabad in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). Nevertheless, effective and concrete actions against most of these groupings and sanctions against their state sponsors are yet to be seen. The language of Trump’s ‘new strategy’, however, clearly puts Islamabad on notice. The President describes as a “pillar of our new strategy”, the change of approach on “how to deal with Pakistan”:

We can no longer be silent about Pakistan’s safe havens for terrorist organizations, the Taliban, and other groups that pose a threat to the region and beyond. Pakistan… has much to lose by continuing to harbor criminals and terrorists… Pakistan has also sheltered the same organizations that try every single day to kill our people. We have been paying Pakistan billions and billions of dollars at the same time they are housing the very terrorists that we are fighting. But that will have to change, and that will change immediately. No partnership can survive a country’s harboring of militants and terrorists who target U.S. service members and officials. It is time for Pakistan to demonstrate its commitment to civilization, order, and to peace.

Crucially, Trump redefines, with absolute clarity, the US engagement in Afghanistan:

We are not nation-building again. We are killing terrorists… That’s why we will also expand authority for American armed forces to target the terrorist and criminal networks that sow violence and chaos throughout Afghanistan. These killers need to know they have nowhere to hide; that no place is beyond the reach of American might and Americans arms. Retribution will be fast and powerful… From now on, victory will have a clear definition: attacking our enemies, obliterating ISIS, crushing al Qaeda, preventing the Taliban from taking over Afghanistan, and stopping mass terror attacks against America before they emerge.

This is what troubles the liberal mind most. The notion that military campaigns with an explicit emphasis on ‘killing’ are posited as the critical element in a counter-terrorism strategy; no ‘addressing root causes’; no ‘negotiated settlements’; no ‘political’ and ‘diplomatic’ initiatives.

The rawness of Trump’s language lends itself easily to parody and exaggeration; to a representation of the President as extremist and somehow unhinged. The strategy that Trump proposes is, however, well supported by the history of counter-insurgency successes, the most dramatic and comprehensive of which have resulted precisely from ‘killing terrorists’. However, not all terrorists are necessary or desirable targets. It is the attrition of leadership and core infrastructure that is crucial, and where these are destroyed, movements disappear. But in the present case, it is not just the Taliban or the Haqqani network leaderships that matter; the principal leadership of the insurgency/terrorism in Afghanistan lies in the Pakistan military leadership and this will require a whole new level of strategy to address. Nevertheless, the efficacy of targeting terrorist leaderships and infrastructure has been demonstrated again and again and is, indeed, currently being demonstrated in Iraq and Syria. Trump demonstrates a clear awareness of this, observing, “As we lift restrictions and expand authorities in the field, we are already seeing dramatic results in the campaign to defeat ISIS, including the liberation of Mosul in Iraq.” If terrorist leaderships and infrastructure in AfPak can be effectively targeted and destroyed, their sponsors in Pakistan’s military will have little option but to accept defeat.

It is ironic in this context that Russia has chosen to criticize the Trump strategy, even as it has been one of the most vigorous advocates of the lethal use of force – at least on occasion with counter-productive consequences – against terrorism. Indeed, it was an aggressive Russian intervention in favour of the Syrian state that transformed the tepid and compromised Western campaigns in that country into an uncompromising and increasingly successful campaign across the Iraq-Syria theatre.

None of this is intended to suggest that the Trump approach has just one component – lethal force – and ignores all other instruments of strategic influence. Indeed, Trump speaks explicitly of the “integration of all instruments of American power – diplomatic, economic, and military – toward a successful outcome.” But each component of strategy has its own time and place. It has been sheer folly in the past, to give terrorists and their state sponsors a privileged place at the negotiating table, even as they continue to escalate violence to exercise greater leverage in negotiating processes. The Trump strategy does not repudiate other instruments of influence, but recognizes clearly and correctly that, while “Military power alone will not bring peace to Afghanistan or stop the terrorist threat arising in that country… strategically applied force aims to create the conditions for a political process to achieve a lasting peace” [emphasis added].

Crucially, while the Trump strategy does indicate that there will be a ‘surge’ of undefined proportions in US troop presence in Afghanistan, surrounding circumstances – and the character of the US-led campaigns in Iraq and Syria – suggest that overwhelming reliance is to be placed on aerial targeting of critical terrorist infrastructure and leaderships, with local Afghan Forces seizing and holding the ground after it has been ‘softened’ by targeted US air attacks. Indeed, this approach has been in place in Afghanistan even before the announcement of the new Trump strategy. United States Air Force (USAF) data indicates that airstrikes in Afghanistan rose from 705 in January to July 2016, to 1,984 in January to July 2017. These strikes have disproportionately – and very effectively – targeted the incipient Islamic State of Khorasan infrastructure in Afghanistan, but are yet to secure the scale and impact necessary to reverse the growing Taliban influence in the country.

Significantly, the US determination to “attack terrorists wherever they live” puts Pakistan clearly within the scope of future campaigns. While this would not be a radical break with the past – terrorists in Pakistan have been targeted by US Drone and Aerial strikes on many occasions, prominently including the killing of Osama bin Laden and, more recently, the then Taliban chief Mullah Mansoor, on Pakistan soil – it remains to be seen whether the scale and intensity of such campaigns will augment dramatically.

Unsurprisingly, the reaction to the announcement of the new Trump strategy in Pakistan has been alarmed and negative, with the establishment rejecting the ‘false narrative’ it imposes on the ‘complex realities’ of the conflict, and arguing, “You can’t single out one nation. There is not only one nation destabilizing Afghanistan.” Some reactions have been a little less restrained, with the Chairman of Pakistan’s Senate, Mian Raza Rabbani, for instance, declaring, “If President of US wants that Pakistan should be graveyard of American army, then we will welcome them (sic)”. The Pakistani narrative is, moreover, increasingly clear: create paranoia about a ‘nuclear armed state’ at the edge of the abyss, and also raise the bogey of Islamabad’s push into a rogue alliance with China, Russia and Iran, as US sanctions or punitive actions mount. Thus, Amir Rana, Director of the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies, warned that isolating Pakistan as the ‘sole culprit’ could stymie efforts to stabilize the region and increase the influence of Russia, China and even Iran. Russian and Chinese responses to the Trump strategy have been uniformly critical.

The declaration of a new US strategy for Afghanistan – or the wider South Asian region – has immense importance, and has already triggered the beginnings of geo-strategic realignments in the region. It will, however, prove decisive only in the magnitude, quality and endurance of its implementation. Half measures and indiscriminate campaigns will both fail, but the potential for success, if appropriate scale and persistence can be attained, is unprecedented. It remains to be seen whether Trump’s policy will endure or, indeed, whether Trump would himself last out his full term – a prospect that both critics and supporters increasingly doubt.

Crucially, it is useful to remind ourselves that, despite the periodic theatrics of public and mass murders executed by Islamist terrorists, this is far from the best of times to be of this persuasion. These movements and their state sponsors are, as has been remarked earlier, on the wrong side of history, and their ideological underpinnings are based on an incorrect understanding of the nature of power.

Unfortunately, there has been a tremendous loss of confidence and of legitimacy on the part of democratic leaderships across the world, and an unwillingness to commit themselves to consistent counter-terrorism goals in an environment where petty ‘great games’ continue to define and dominate the conduct of nations.

*Ajai Sahni
Editor, SAIR; Executive Director, ICM & SATP

Past Feuds Overshadow Kosovo Coalition Talks

0
0

By Perparim Isufi and Amire Qamili

Vetevendosje and the Democratic League of Kosovo, LDK, resumed their talks on Monday in a bid to reach a coalition agreement in Kosovo – which still has no government.

However, many question whether the two old rivals can clear away all the animosities from the past.

Late in 2015 and early in 2016, Vetevendosje challenged LDK Prime Minister Isa Mustafa’s government with the most radical methods, including letting off tear gas in parliament, throwing Molotov cocktails in the streets and even staging protests in front of his home.

Vetevendosje and the LDK – along with its allies – have now appointed working groups to hatch an eventual agreement but the LDK hinted on Monday that it is still early to talk about a result.

“There is no common ground as yet. We have talked to or three times but we didn’t talk concretely on a government program and about which issues hinder us most,” Mustafa said on Monday.

Mustafa noted that visa liberalization for Kosovo, the controversial border demarcation agreement with Montenegro, dialogue with Serbia and the transformation of Kosovo Security Force, KSF, into a regular army are “pressing issues” that need to be solved.

“I expect these issues to be opened at some point and discuss whether we can find a common ground,” Mustafa said.

“If we can find that common ground, we will do it [form a coalition]. If not, we will stay in opposition,” the LDK leader added.

The process of appointing a parliamentary speaker, which will open the way for the President to give a mandate to the Prime Minister, has been blocked because the coalition that won the most seats, made up of the Kosovo Democratic Party, PDK, the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, AAK and the Initiative for Kosovo, NISMA – is still hesitating to nominate a candidate, owing to the lack of votes in parliament.

The PAN coalition wants first to secure a political agreement that will ensure that its candidate for Prime Minister, Ramush Haradinaj, is put in place.

Once a speaker is elected, the first person to get a mandate to be Prime Minister, Haradinaj, will have 15 days to present his cabinet to parliament.

If he fails to do so, the President will have the discretion to mandate a second candidate who will have a shorter deadline of 10 days.

As the party that won the second largest number of votes in the June 11 general election, Vetevendosje expects its leader, Albin Kurti, to be given a chance to form a government.

Analysts suggest that Vetevendosje and LDK have mountains to climb before they can reach an agreement.

Rasim Alija, from the Pristina-based think tank Democracy for Development, expects the unpopular dialogue with Serbia and the economy to be the two trickiest issues during the discussions between Vetevendosje and LDK.

“If we see their programs, we see great differences on forms and instruments for economic development. The same applies to the issue of dialogue with Serbia,” Alija told BIRN.

However, an expert on political parties, Visare Gorani, suggested that the two parties might put those animosities behind them when they sit around the table for discussions.

Although it may not be easy for them to talk, Gorani says that when two opponents sit around the same table, trying to find a solution, it is part of “the charm of democracy”.

“The negotiations on the creation of VV-LDK coalition are oriented towards finding a solution. We all know about their differences, but they now need to focus on finding common ground,” Gorani told BIRN.

“Demarcation, dialogue with Serbia and the KSF’s transformation are issues that go beyond any political party – so they need to reflect on these issues,” Gorani added.

China Brightens Economic Picture For Party Congress

0
0

By Michael Lelyveld

Despite a disappointing performance last month, China has cast its economy in a favorable light as it prepares for its crucial political meeting in the fall.

The pace of China’s economic growth “showed visible signs of fading in July,” as a range of indicators from industrial production to investment all fell short of forecasts, Reuters reported.

Growth of industrial output slowed to 6.4 percent from a year earlier compared with 7.6 percent in June, while fixed-asset investment rose 8.3 percent in the first seven months, down from first-half growth of 8.6 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said.

Other indicators like retail sales also dimmed, as year-on-year growth slipped to 10.4 percent in July from 11 percent a month before.

Foreign direct investment in China fell 1.2 percent in the seven-month period, the Ministry of Commerce said.

The lusterless data followed less than a week after the General Administration of Customs reported a slowdown in July trade results with exports rising 7.2 percent in dollar terms, dipping from 11.3 percent in June.

The weaker numbers, while far from dismal, did not tell the encouraging story that China’s leaders wanted to hear before the Communist Party’s critical 19th National Congress, likely to take place in the next two months.

So, state media put out more positive versions.

The July figures were a sign of “slower but steadier growth” with a “better structure,” the official Xinhua news agency said.

In an unusual preview, Xinhua said a day before the NBS release that the numbers were “widely expected to be relatively high, despite milder growth in July, as the economy continues to show resilience.”

The commentary ran under a more bullish headline, reading, “Rapid growth expected for major indicators as China’s economy stabilizes.”

The official spin is understandable in light of the stakes for the party congress, which is expected to confirm a second five-year term for President Xi Jinping as general secretary and name new officials to the Politburo and powerful Standing Committee posts.

China’s official press has been paving the way with positive interpretations for weeks, presenting the government’s pro-growth policies as the white knight that came to the world’s economic rescue after the global downturn in 2008.

In another commentary posted a day before the July numbers, Xinhua said the world economy was now “recovering sluggishly” and the West was “mired in an unprecedented institutional crisis.”

Meanwhile, “China constantly creates social and economic miracles, showcasing its growth path based on socialism with Chinese characteristics.”

Xinhua’s pre-congress praise has extended beyond economic image-building to include the government’s response to the recent Sichuan earthquake.

“Quake rescue demonstrates China’s strength,” a Xinhua headline on Aug. 10 read.

Although it may be less than miraculous, one of China’s successes has been in pumping up its gross domestic product growth to 6.9 percent in the first half of the year, giving leaders a better story to tell when the national congress convenes.

Some self-congratulation deserved

Scott Kennedy, deputy director of China studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said that some self-congratulation is deserved after an apparent slump in 2015.

“Outside observers expected that in 2017 China’s leadership would focus heavily on maintaining growth and avoiding any instabilities in the economy,” Kennedy said by email.

“In reality, growth has been more buoyant than predicted by anyone, and so the leadership has turned its attention more forcefully than expected to limiting risks in the financial system,” he said.

Early signs suggest some progress in slowing debt growth and addressing the risks, said Kennedy.

“This does not mean the economy has fully restructured or that productivity growth has recovered,” he said. “Much more liberalization needs to occur for that, but I think coverage identifying modest improvements in their economic situation is justified,” he said.

The push to boost GDP growth above last year’s 6.7-percent rate may have given leaders a cushion against the political pressures of the congress. But spending and credit excesses may not come without consequences.

Smoothing the way for the congress with heavy budget outlays may have disrupted the government’s normal fiscal cycle, leaving it with less to spend for the rest of the year, according to Bloomberg News.

China ran a record first-half fiscal deficit of 918 billion yuan (U.S. $137 billion), equal to more than 2 percent of GDP, Bloomberg said.

Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong said that spending was “front-loaded … to ensure a stable economic backdrop” for the congress drama.

The result is that second-half budget spending could be 1 trillion yuan (U.S. $150 billion) lower than a year earlier, said economists at China International Capital Corp., according to Bloomberg.

Derek Scissors, an Asia economist and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, said that fiscal spending is “not large enough to have economy-wide effects as compared to changes in state lending.”

Figures on first-half bank lending also suggest pre-congress economic support, despite publicized efforts to curb risks and debt.

New yuan-denominated loans rose 5.8 percent from a year earlier during the period to 7.97 trillion yuan (U.S. $1.19 trillion), while outstanding loans climbed 12.9 percent to 115 trillion yuan (U.S. $17.2 trillion), the People’s Bank of China said.

In July, outstanding new loans of 825.5 billion yuan (U.S. $123.5 billion) dropped 53 percent from 1.54 trillion yuan (U.S. $230.4 billion) in June, but they rose 78 percent year-on-year, according to PBOC reports.

“With regard to deleveraging, there hasn’t been any. The pace of leveraging has slowed, that’s it,” Scissors said.

‘A pleasant surprise’

Other state media reports have credited China’s economic growth for this year’s strengthening of the yuan against the dollar rather than citing the slower pace of planned interest rate hikes for the weakening of the U.S. currency.

“After the first-half GDP growth — 6.9 percent — sprang a pleasant surprise, the market’s confidence in the Chinese currency has been restored,” the official English-language China Daily said on Aug. 10.

The official press has also been singing the praises of efforts to revitalize the sluggish state-owned enterprise (SOE) sector through mergers and “mixed-ownership” plans to attract private capital. The government has promised a complete “restructuring” by the end of 2017.

“The reform is taking off in the second half of the year,” Xinhua said on July 24.

But analysts are doubtful that much will change.

“Reform of state-owned firms has taken the form of mega-mergers, which has reduced the number of firms without reducing the share of output coming from the state sector,” said senior fellow Caroline Freund in a paper for the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“The strategy of creating super-sized state-owned firms is neither good for growth nor good for global business,” Freund said.

The rosy economic coverage may be persuasive for domestic audiences as party leaders count up the successes of their policies, but it may only serve to slow progress on the challenges that China faces in coming years.

“The more positive spin is very obvious and, of course, it fits in with the tighter control of information,” Scissors said.

Iraqi Forces Reach Center Of Tal Afar; Syrian Democratic Forces Push On In Raqqa

0
0

By Jim Garamone

Iraqi security forces reached the center of Tal Afar and liberated another 60 square kilometers in and around the former Islamic State of Iraq and Syria stronghold, a Defense Department official said Monday.

The city is not completely liberated yet, Army Col. Robert Manning said during a press availability in the Pentagon.

Iraqi security forces have attacked the terror group in the city to the west of Mosul, with increasing confidence, DoD officials said. The strategy of training, advising and assisting Iraqi forces is paying off with increased combat capabilities.

Iraq Operations

Coalition forces have also contributed by providing intelligence information and precision air and ground fires, Manning said. “The Iraqi security forces have made remarkable progress in Tal Afar, but the fight against ISIS continues while the city center and key infrastructure come under ISF control,” he said.

Iraqi forces still face dangerous work, Manning said, as they conduct “back clearance” operations after their advance. ISF service members, he added, are conducting operations to identify ISIS fighters that remain in hiding and clearing the city of improvised explosive devices.

“Additionally, the ISF will conduct clearance operations throughout northern Nineveh province around Tal Afar to eliminate any remaining ISIS holdouts,” Manning said.

Manning added, “Coalition support to ISF remains as it has been throughout the campaign. We are working by, with and through our Iraqi partners to enable their defeat of ISIS.”

The defeat-ISIS actions are Iraqi led and the forces are being deliberate in clearing the region to lessen the chances of civilian casualties, he said.

Operations in Syria

In Raqqa — the so-called capital of the ISIS caliphate — Syrian Democratic Forces are making progress against tough opposition, Manning said. The SDF liberated approximately one kilometer in Raqqa bringing the total of the liberated area of the city to about 60 percent.

“On the western axis the SDF cleared more than two hundred meters of urban terrain along the main supply route [including] a portion of the Children’s Hospital and advanced to within three hundred meters of the National Hospital, where ISIS snipers are operating,” he said.

To the west, the SDF has met solid ISIS resistance, but forces continue back-clearing operations, he added.

This is Day 84 of operations in and around Raqqa, Manning said.

India: J&K Ceasefire In Shambles – Analysis

0
0

By Nijeesh N.*

On August 16, 2017, a soldier of the Indian Army identified as Havaldar Narendra Singh Bisht, who was injured in sniper fire from across the Line of Control (LoC) in the Rampur sector of Baramulla District in the Indian State of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), succumbed to injuries at 92 Base Hospital in Badami Bagh Cantonment in Srinagar. Violating the November 2003 cease-fire agreement (CFA), Pakistani Rangers had carried out the sniper attack on August 7, 2017, grievously injuring the soldier.

On August 12, 2017, an Army soldier identified as Naib Subedar Jagram Singh Tomar was killed, while another trooper, Sepoy Mohit Kumar, was injured when Pakistani Rangers resorted to heavy mortar shelling and firing targeting forward defence locations and civilian areas on the LoC in the Mankote area of the Krishna Ghati sector of Poonch District. According to reports, the Indian side retaliated strongly, effectively decimating three Pakistani posts and bunkers along the border, which were engaged in targeting civilian populations in the area. However, no casualty was reported on the Pakistani side.

On the same day, a 40-year-old woman identified as Raqia Bi was killed in firing by the Pakistani Rangers at border villages and Indian posts along the LoC in the Mendhar sector of Poonch District. Several mortar shells also fell in the villages at Gohlad and Sabra Gali but the people remained confined to their houses and narrowly escaped harm. According to reports, the Indian side hit back very strongly and destroyed three Pakistani posts and bunkers and the Pakistan army suffered casualties in the retaliatory action, but exact figures were not available.

On August 8, 2017, an Army trooper identified as Sepoy Pawan Singh Sugra was killed in Pakistani firing from across the LoC in the Mankote area of the Krishna Ghati sector of Poonch District.

These incidents along the LoC and International Border (IB) are rampant. According to official figures, there have been at least 285 incidents of CFA violation reported till August 1 in the current year. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), there have been at least another 19 such violations between August 2 and August 27, 2017. Official data further indicates that the Pakistan Army has violated the CFA on at least 2,463 occasions since 2005. There was one violation in 2005, followed by three such violations in 2006, 23 in 2007, 86 in 2008, 35 in 2009, 70 in 2010, 62 in 2011, 114 in 2012, 347 in 2013, 583 in 2014, 405 in 2015, and 449 in 2016.

The ‘unwritten’ CFA between India and Pakistan along the IB, LoC and Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL) in J&K, virtually came into effect at midnight on November 25, 2003. The Directors-General of Military Operations (DGMO) of India and Pakistan, in their weekly telephonic conversation, discussed the modalities of implementation of the earlier proposal and mutually agreed that the ceasefire would be enforced between the two sides along all sectors of the IB, LoC and AGPL. The Agreement held reasonably – though with rising exceptions over time – as long as President Pervez Musharraf remained in power in Pakistan, but disintegrated fairly quickly thereafter. The first CFA violation on record took place on January 19, 2005, when mortars were fired from the Pakistani side across the LoC, targeting an Indian post in the Poonch sector, resulting in injuries to a girl.

CFA violations have, so far, resulted in 50 civilian deaths since November 26, 2003 (official data till June 30, 2017). These included three civilian deaths in the current year. According to SATP data, another four civilians have died between July 1 and August 27, 2017.

The number of fatalities among Security Force (SF) personnel is expectedly higher, as they are the real targets of these violations. The first fatality in Pakistani firing after the CFA took place on November 25, 2007, when a soldier was killed, and another two were injured in two separate firing incidents from the Pakistani side along the LoC in the Poonch Sector. According to official figures, since then, at least 72 soldiers have died (data till July 11, 2017), including five in the current year. These included 48 Army and 24 Border Security Force (BSF) personnel. While the Army is on duty along the 770 kilometres long LoC, the BSF patrols the 220 kilometres long International Border. According to SATP data, another 10 SF personnel have died between July 12 and August 27, 2017.

As SAIR has noted earlier, Pakistan has used these incidents of violation to increase volatility along the LoC and IB in order to facilitate infiltration of terrorists into the Indian side, from their launch pads in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). Indeed, according to official figures, since 2005, there have been at least 4,565 recorded infiltration attempts by Pakistani terrorists (data till June 30, 2017). These included at least 42 such attempts in the current year.

Fire cover provided by Pakistan Army and paramilitary units located across the border is essential to create opportunities for successful infiltration. According to India’s Multi Agency Centre (MAC), around 80 terrorists have successfully infiltrated into J&K this year, till July 31, 2017, from PoK. In 2016, 114 terrorists had infiltrated into the State; 35 in 2015; 65 in 2014; 97 in 2013; 121 in 2012; 52 in 2011; 82 in 2010; 99 in 2009; and 27 in 2008.

Moreover, reports also indicate that around 300 terrorists are waiting in launch pads, mostly in the Neelam Valley of PoK, waiting to infiltrate into the Indian side. Official data, meanwhile, reveals that SFs have succeeded in eliminating 36 terrorists in 2017 (data till July 17) while they were trying to infiltrate from across the border in J&K. In 2016, the SFs had eliminated 37 terrorists during infiltration attempts; in addition to 46 in 2015; 52 in 2014; 38 in 2013; 13 in 2012; 35 in 2011; 112 in 2010; 101 in 2009; and 90 in 2008.

Year

Number of Incidents of CFA Violations*
Total Terrorism-Linked Deaths in Kashmir**

2003

0***
2542

2004

0
1810

2005

1
1739

2006

3
1116

2007

23
777

2008

86
541

2009

35
375

2010

70
375

2011

62
183

2012

114
117

2013

347
181

2014

583
193

2015

405
174

2016

449
267

2017

285****
239*****
Source: *Government Data, ** SATP, ***Data since November 26, 2003,
****Data till August 1, 2017, *****Data till August 27, 2017.

Despite Pakistan continuous CFA violations by Pakistan since 2005, the trend of declining fatalities in the J&K has only been fitfully affected. The trend was first broken in 2013, when Pakistan drastically increased the number of CFA violations. Broadly, levels of violence in J&K have tended to reduce – with short term variations – despite the rising number of CFA violations by Pakistan.

The Indian response to escalating Pakistani misadventures has tended to follow a hard line, crystallizing around the conviction that the ‘strategic restraint’ that New Delhi had observed over the past decades was no longer useful or acceptable. Thus, in response to the Uri Army camp attack on September 18, 2016, in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed, the Indian Army executed a ‘surgical strike’ against terrorist launch pads across the LoC in PoK on September 29, 2016, inflicting significant casualties. Unconfirmed reports suggest that at least 38 terrorists and their handlers, as well as two Pakistani soldiers were killed in the strike. No Indian casualty was reported. However, in the 332 days since the ‘surgical strike’, according to partial data compiled by SATP, a total of 53 Indians (30 SFs personnel and 23 civilians) have died as a result of CFA violations by the Pakistan Army, even as India responds to each incident with retaliatory barrages that have caused significant damage and loss of life on the other side. While there is no systematic reportage on casualties on the Pakistani side, a statement by Zaheeruddin Qureshi, the Director General of Pakistan’s Disaster Management Authority, confirmed on June 19, 2017, that at least 832 lives had been lost and over 3,000 persons injured in what was described as India’s ‘unprovoked firing’ (the period over which these losses were sustained was not specified in most reports, though there is an indication that figures are for casualties since the November 2003 CFA).

The escalation of CFA violations continues to cause significant loss of life on both sides, with no measurable strategic purpose served. Nevertheless, with jingoism and aggressive posturing dominating the discourse, both in Islamabad and New Delhi, there is no proximate end in sight to this directionless bloodshed.

* Nijeesh N.
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

South Korea Conducts Bombing Drill In Response To North Korea’s Missile Test

0
0

Demonstrating its “overwhelming” military force to North Korea, South Korea conducted bombing drills just hours after Pyongyang launched what appeared to be an intermediate range ballistic missile that reportedly fell in Japanese waters.

The show of force, ordered by South Korean president Moon Jae-in, involved four F15K fighter jets dropping MK84 multipurpose bombs on a shooting range near the inter-Korean border in Taebaek, the presidential press secretary told reporters, according to Yonhap.

Moon’s chief press secretary, Yoon Young-chan, said the bombing drill was ordered immediately after the National Security Council meeting convened to discuss possible counter measures Seoul could take against Pyongyang’s ballistic missile provocation.

“We assessed North Korea’s provocations as extremely severe and decided to maintain a vigilant posture in preparation for the possibility of additional provocations by North Korea,” the chief of the National Security Council added.

Shortly after the NSC meeting, South Korea’s national security director, Chung Eui-yong called president Donald Trump’s national security adviser H.R. McMaster to discuss the incident, Yonhap reports. During the conversation, McMaster noted that “president Donald Trump has fully supported Mr. Moon’s policy toward North Korea and the Korean government’s response to North Korean provocations.”


After Hurricane Katrina, Personal Debt Fell For Those Worst Hit, But At A Cost

0
0

After Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans a dozen years ago, there was a sharp and immediate drop in personal debt among residents living in city’s most flooded blocks, according to a new Case Western Reserve University study.

Yet, the main driver of this debt reduction–using flood insurance to pay off mortgages of damaged homes, rather than rebuilding or repairing them–may ultimately harm the city’s recovery, the study suggests.

“While paying down mortgage debt is usually seen as a positive, if homeowners do this and move, then it could slow the rebuilding of neighborhoods–especially if residents are more likely to return when others do,” said Justin Gallagher, an assistant professor of economics and co-author of the study, published this month in the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy.

New Orleans residents with local mortgage lenders were more likely to rebuild their homes–a buoy to neighborhoods.

But the propensity to pay off mortgages–and not rebuild–was especially high in the deepest-flooded neighborhoods.

“Residents in these areas were the ones facing the difficult decision to rebuild or pay down debt,” said Gallagher. “And residents in these areas with non-local mortgage companies were much more likely to choose to decrease debt than rebuild.” In many cases, lenders must approve how homeowners use flood insurance payouts and can create conditions and pressures for how the money is spent.

“The findings suggest that the higher number of mortgages provided by local lenders can result in a more positive impact on a community’s redevelopment after a natural disaster,” Gallagher said.

After Katrina, new mortgages by nonlocal lenders fell sharply, relative to those by local lenders.

Causing an estimated $108 billion in property damage, Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans on Aug. 29, 2005 and flooded 85 percent of the city after its levees were breached by a surge of storm and coastal waters.

In the U.S., more than 200 weather and climate disasters have exceeded $1 billion in damages since 1980, with a total cost exceeding $1.2 trillion, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Yet, relatively little is known about how people affected by natural disasters cope with the resulting financial shock, said Gallagher, though the U.S. government has many longstanding programs to do so.

After Katrina, researchers found that the worst-flooded residents relied on credit cards in modest amounts–incurring an average temporary increase of 15 percent, or $500, in new credit card debt. (Though, there was some evidence of a tightening overall credit market for flooded residents.)

In addition, two broad measures of financial health–debt delinquency rates and credit scores–showed short-lived and modest increases: The worst-flooded residents had 90-day delinquency rates that were about 10 percent higher, relative to non-flooded residents, for the three months following Katrina.

Daniel Hartley, a policy economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, co-authored the paper.

Oil And Gas Wells Strong Source Of Greenhouse Gases

0
0

The pictures went around the world. In April 2010, huge amounts of methane gas escaped from a well below the Deepwater Horizon platform in the Gulf of Mexico. This “blow-out” caused an explosion, in which eleven people died. For several weeks, oil spilled from the damaged well into the ocean. Fortunately, such catastrophic “blow-outs” are rather rare. Continuous discharges of smaller amounts of gas from active or old and abandoned wells occur more frequently.

Scientists from GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel and the University of Basel now published new data in the international journal Environmental Science & Technology, indicating that gas migration along the outside of wells could be a much bigger problem than previously assumed. This type of leakage is currently neither considered by operators nor regulators, but could be just as important as fugitive emissions through damaged wells, which are usually recognized and quickly repaired. “We estimate that gas leakage around boreholes could constitute one of the main sources of methane in the North Sea”, says Dr. Lisa Vielstädte from GEOMAR, the first author of the study.

During expeditions to oil and gas fields in the central North Sea in 2012 and 2013, the scientists discovered a number of methane seeps around abandoned wells. Interestingly, the gas originates from shallow gas pockets buried less than 1,000 meters below the seabed. They are simply penetrated when drilling into the underlying, economically interesting hydrocarbon reservoirs. “These gas pockets usually do not pose a risk to the drilling operation itself. But apparently disturbing the sediment around the well enables the gas to rise to the seafloor”, explains Dr. Matthias Haeckel from GEOMAR, who initiated the study.

Seismic data from the subsurface of the North Sea further show that about one third of the boreholes perforated shallow gas pockets and may thus leak methane. “Considering the more than 11,000 wells that have been drilled in the North Sea, this results in a fairly large amount of potential methane sources”, states Dr. Vielstädte who is currently based at the Stanford University in California, USA.

According to the team’s calculations shallow gas migration along wells may release around 3,000 to 17,000 tonnes of methane from the North Sea seafloor per year. “This would reflect a significant contribution to the North Sea methane budget”, emphasizes Dr. Haeckel.

In the ocean, methane is usually degraded by microbes, thereby locally acidifying the seawater. In the North Sea, about half of the wells are located in such shallow water depths that the methane leaking from the seabed can reach the atmosphere, where it is acting as a potent greenhouse gas – much more efficient than carbon dioxide.

“Natural gas, thus methane, is often praised as the fossil fuel that is most suitable for the transition from coal burning towards regenerative energies. However, if drilling for gas leads to such high atmospheric methane emissions, we have to rethink the greenhouse gas budget of natural gas “, summarizes Dr. Haeckel.

In order to better quantify the human impact on the methane budget of the North Sea, Kiel’s research vessel POSEIDON will investigate further gas seeps in the vicinity of oil and gas wells in October.

Saudi Arabia: 1,735,391 Hajj Pilgrims Have Arrived

0
0

By Mohammad Al-Sulami

The General Directorate of Passports announced on Monday that up till now, the number of guests of Allah coming from abroad has reached 1,735,391.

Maj. Gen. Sulaiman Al-Yahya explained during a press conference held in Jeddah that the number of pilgrims coming by air was 1,631,979; 88,585 by land; and 14,585 by sea.

He said that the Saudi leadership was keen on facilitating the entrance of pilgrims by land, sea and air.

He added that the directorate has set up a plan to process pilgrims on their arrival and is using advanced technical devices to ensure speed and accuracy in the arrival procedures of every pilgrim.

He pointed out that special administrative committees were formed and are currently located at the entrances of Makkah, notably in Ash Shimaisi, Taniim, Bouhaita and Karr.

“The directorate is also getting ready for the second phase of Hajj in the coming days regarding the departure of the guests of Allah and their safe return to their homeland.”

He also called upon foreign pilgrims not to overstay their Hajj visa so they will not be detained, interrogated or punished.

Yes, Islamic State Is Dying, But Don’t Celebrate Just Yet – OpEd

0
0

Iraq’s second largest city, Mosul, has been reduced to rubble. It has finally been snatched back from Daesh after months of merciless bombardment by the US-led coalition, and a massive ground war.

But “victory” is hardly the term to describe this moment. Mosul, once Iraq’s cultural jewel and model of co-existence, is now a “city of corpses,” as described by a journalist who walked through the ruins.

“You’ve probably heard of thousands killed, the civilian suffering,” Murad Gazdiev said. “What you likely haven’t heard of is the smell. It’s nauseating, repulsive, and it’s everywhere — the smell of rotting bodies.”

Actually, the “smell of rotting bodies” can be found everywhere that Daesh has been defeated. The group that once declared a “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria in 2014, and was left to expand in all directions, is now being rapidly vanquished.

One wonders how a small group, itself a spawn of other equally notorious groups, could have declared, expanded and sustained a “state” for years, in a region rife with foreign armies, militias and the world’s most powerful intelligence agencies?

But is such a question now irrelevant, considering that Daesh is finally being routed?

Well, this is what almost everyone seems to agree on; even political and military rivals are openly united on the subject.

Aside from Mosul in Iraq, Daesh has also been defeated in its stronghold in Raqqa, in the east of Syria. Those who survived those battles are now holed up in Deir Ezzor, which promises to be their last major conflict. Daesh militants are also being flushed out of the western Qalamoun region on the Syria-Lebanon border. Even the open desert is no longer safe. There is heavy fighting in the Badiya desert, which extends from central Syria to the borders of Iraq and Jordan.

Brett McGurk, US special envoy for the coalition against Daesh, speaks with confidence about its demise. Daesh forces are “fighting for their life, block-by-block,” he said in a TV interview, and the militant group had lost nearly 80 percent of areas it formerly controlled in Iraq since its peak in 2014, and nearly 60 percent in Syria.

Unsurprisingly, US officials and media mostly emphasize military gains they attribute to US-led forces and ignore all others, while Russian-led allies are doing just the opposite.

But aside from the humanitarian tragedies associated with these victories, none of the parties involved has taken any responsibility for the rise of Daesh in the first place. They have to, and not only as a matter of moral accountability. Without understanding and confronting the reasons behind the rise of Daesh, its fall will only spawn another group with an equally nefarious, despairing and violent vision.

Analysts who have tried to deconstruct the roots of Daesh unwisely confront its ideological influences without paying the slightest heed to the political reality from which it came.

Whether Daesh, Al-Qaeda or any other, such groups are typically born and reborn in places suffering from the same, chronic ailments: weak and corrupt government, foreign invasion, military occupation and state terror.

Terrorism is the by-product of brutality and humiliation, regardless of the source, but is most pronounced when that source is a foreign one. Unless these factors are genuinely addressed, there can be no end to terrorism.

It is no accident that Daesh was molded, and thrived, in places such as Iraq, Syria, Libya and the Sinai. Many of those who answered its call also emerged from communities that suffered the cruelty of merciless Arab regimes, or neglect, hate and alienation in western societies.

The reason that many refuse to acknowledge this fact — and would fight tooth and nail to discredit it — is that an admission of guilt would make many responsible for the creation of the very terrorism they claim to fight.

Those who blame Islam are not simply ignorant, but many are also guided by sinister agendas. Their mindless notion of blaming religion is as foolish as George W. Bush’s “war on terror.”

Wholesale, uninformed judgments can only prolong conflict. They also prevent us from confronting specific and clearly obvious links, for example between Al-Qaeda’s rise in Iraq and the US invasion; between the rise of the sectarian brand of Al-Qaeda under Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi and the sectarian division of that country under the US administrator in Iraq, Paul Bremer, and his allies in the Shia-led government in Baghdad.

It should have been clear from the start that Daesh, as notoriously violent as it is, was a symptom, not the cause. It is only three years old. Foreign occupation and war in the region predates it by many years.

Although we were told — by Daesh itself, but also media pundits — that Daesh was here to stay, it turned out to be but a passing phase in a long, ugly montage, rife with violence and bereft of both morality and the intellectual courage to examine the true roots of violence.

It is likely that the victory will be short-lived. The group will surely develop a new strategy or further mutate. History has taught us that much.

It is also likely that those who are proudly taking credit for systematically and efficiently annihilating the group — along with whole cities — will not pause for a moment to think of what they must do differently to prevent a new Daesh from rising from the ashes of the old.

Strangely, the “US-led Global Coalition” seems to have access to the firepower needed to turn cities into rubble, but not the wisdom to understand that unchecked violence inspires nothing but violence; and that state terror, foreign interventions and the collective humiliation of entire nations are all the necessary ingredients to start the bloodbath all over again.

Drinking More Coffee Linked With Lower Risk Of Death

0
0

Higher coffee consumption is associated with a lower risk of death, according to research presented at ESC Congress. The observational study in nearly 20,000 participants suggests that coffee can be part of a healthy diet in healthy people.

“Coffee is one of the most widely consumed beverages around the world,” said Dr Adela Navarro, a cardiologist at Hospital de Navarra, Pamplona, Spain. “Previous studies have suggested that drinking coffee might be inversely associated with all-cause mortality but this has not been investigated in a Mediterranean country.”

The purpose of this study was to examine the association between coffee consumption and the risk of mortality in a middle-aged Mediterranean cohort. The study was conducted within the framework of the Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra (SUN) Project, a long-term prospective cohort study in more than 22 500 Spanish university graduates which started in 1999.

This analysis included 19,896 participants of the SUN Project, whose average age at enrollment was 37.7 years old. On entering the study, participants completed a previously validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire to collect information on coffee consumption, lifestyle and sociodemographic characteristics, anthropometric measurements, and previous health conditions.

Patients were followed-up for an average of ten years. Information on mortality was obtained from study participants and their families, postal authorities, and the National Death Index. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for incident mortality according to baseline total coffee consumption adjusted for potential confounders.

During the ten year period, 337 participants died. The researchers found that participants who consumed at least four cups of coffee per day had a 64% lower risk of all-cause mortality than those who never or almost never consumed coffee (adjusted HR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.19-0.70). There was a 22% lower risk of all-cause mortality for each two additional cups of coffee per day (adjusted HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.66-0.92).

The researchers examined whether sex, age or adherence to the Mediterranean diet had any influence on the association between baseline coffee consumption and mortality. They observed a significant interaction between coffee consumption and age (p for interaction=0.0016). In those who were at least 45 years old, drinking two additional cups of coffee per day was associated with a 30% lower risk of mortality during follow-up (adjusted HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.58-0.85). The association was not significant among younger participants.

Dr Navarro said: “In the SUN project we found an inverse association between drinking coffee and the risk of all-cause mortality, particularly in people aged 45 years and above. This may be due to a stronger protective association among older participants.”

She concluded, “Our findings suggest that drinking four cups of coffee each day can be part of a healthy diet in healthy people.”

Viewing all 73339 articles
Browse latest View live




Latest Images