Quantcast
Channel: Eurasia Review
Viewing all 73339 articles
Browse latest View live

Yemen: Kidnapped Indian Priest Released After 18 Months

0
0

An Indian priest who was kidnapped by suspected Islamic terrorists 18-months ago in Yemen has been rescued and taken to Muscat and will soon fly back to India, officials confirmed.

Salesian Father Thomas Uzhunnalil was “released” Sept. 12 and “he is in safe hands,” said a communique posted in the website of the Apostolic Vicariate of Southern Arabia that covers the area.

Bishop Paul Hinder of Southern Arabia confirmed that the priest who was abducted during the attack on a care home run by the Missionaries of Charity in Aden on March 4, 2016 has been released.

Federal home ministry officials in New Delhi also confirmed the freedom of the priest, but said they do not know details of his current location or arrival to India.

However, a Twitter post from the Oman Observer said the priest was flown to Muscat and released a picture of him standing in a large room.

Father Uzhunnalil, a member of Bangalore Province of the Salesians of Don Bosco, worked as chaplain at the care home in Yemen. The attackers also killed four Missionaries of Charity nuns and at least 12 others who were at the home for the aged.


The Humanitarian Access Paradox: Data Security In Contested Settings – Analysis

0
0

In complex humanitarian settings, potential data thieves include warring parties. Beyond undermining privacy, data loss risks violating neutrality, an often critical principle for negotiating humanitarian access. Can aid organisations protect that information?

By Martin Searle*

This year’s high profile cyberattacks – WannaCry, Petya, notPetya – continue a clear trend. In 2016, the US Democratic National Committee infamously had tens of thousands of emails stolen. The same year, the US Office of Personnel Management was breached for a second time, with attackers targeting personal information of military and intelligence personnel applying for security clearance. In 2015 the Philippines’ Commission on Elections’ entire database was hacked.

Attacks threaten all organisations adopting new data integration technologies. Humanitarian organisations face particular challenges. As the region considered most at risk from natural disasters globally, there is strong motivation in the Asia-Pacific to integrate humanitarian data systems to drastically reduce human fatalities. Over the past decade, disaster-induced deaths tripled in the region, according to the United Nations. These systems promise better information management leading to greater reduction of suffering and saving of life.

Negotiating Access: The Asian Disaster Setting

Simply collecting data already raises questions of privacy that are familiar to all those considering the integration of their data management systems. Humanitarian organisations must contend with the added concern of collecting data on the most vulnerable, which complicates consent and exacerbates the real world implications of any data breach.

One particular reality of humanitarian work creates peculiar implications in a world where even the most sophisticated of governments are being hacked: the need to negotiate access to – and maintain acceptance in – areas where people in need can reach you.

This region’s experiences with natural disasters in areas with ongoing insurgencies underscore the significance of this. Despite the impressive cessation of respective hostilities in northern Sri Lanka and Aceh following the 2004 Tsunami, the conflict still complicated people’s ability to reach aid immediately following the disaster. In Sri Lanka, this further deteriorated when the conflict reignited during the longer recovery phase.

In 2012, Typhoon Bopha swept through several areas of Mindanao, Philippines affected by low-intensity conflict between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. This included Marawi City, parts of which remain under the control of insurgents at the time of writing. This adds new complexity that humanitarians already face in negotiating access to populations in need, and would have clear relevance were a natural disaster to strike the area now.

Core Humanitarian Principles: More Art Than Science

On an almost annual basis, opposition-held areas in Shan and Kachin state, Myanmar, suffer often severe flooding, with the distribution of assistance again complicated by conflict. Indeed, in 2015 a member of the Myanmar Red Cross was tragically killed following an attack on his convoy in Shan State.

Negotiating access in such contexts is more art than science. It involves convincing those with the power to block it that a humanitarian presence adds value in some way they consider significant, and will not provoke excessive negative side-effects. Improved operational effectiveness born of better data technologies would, in most instances, help strengthen the case for allowing aid in. But crucially, it might increase undesirable ancillary impacts.

There are three core humanitarian principles: impartiality, independence and neutrality. Together, independence and neutrality ground the case that the presence of a humanitarian organisation will not entail negative consequences to those with the power to block access.

Maintaining independence allows organisations to argue that their actions do not conform to anyone else’s agenda; neutrality ensures that humanitarian assistance and civilian protection will not advantage one side of a political disagreement or conflict.

Paradox of Access

As humanitarian organisations adopt new systems technologies to improve their collection, processing and analysis of information, the value of their assessments becomes increasingly strategic. Analyses of socio-political trends, actor networks and resource capabilities as well as data on movements or key health indicators could all represent actionable intelligence to other political actors.

As such, humanitarians become more tempting targets for cyber-attack. Several NGOs working in or on Syria are already believed to have been targeted by hackers seeking to harvest information they possess.

Thus new integrated systems technologies create a paradox for negotiating access. They strengthen a humanitarian organisation’s bargaining power. But simultaneously, they undermine neutrality by facilitating production of strategic intelligence that is vulnerable to theft.

Would those actors – state and non-state – cited above in Aceh, Sri Lanka, Mindanao and Shan and Kachin states, still consent to humanitarian access during a natural disaster or any other humanitarian emergency if they perceive a risk of aid agencies unwittingly leaking valuable information to their opponents?

Data: To Collect or Not to Collect?

Humanitarian organisations have hitherto not prioritised cybersecurity. Doing so requires expertise they generally do not possess, and redirecting resources away from aiding people directly. Budgets are already stretched across simultaneous famine threats in South Sudan, Somalia, Nigeria and Yemen, and the largest global refugee burden since the Second World War. But cybersecurity cannot be ignored; it has implications on the vulnerability of those in need, and on organisations’ own ability to negotiate access.

In a world where even the most sophisticated of governments are unable to protect their data, the humanitarian community faces a real challenge. Humanitarian organisations must carefully consider what data they collect. In each case they must decide whether the value of collecting and processing any given data for improving their aid effectiveness is outweighed by the risk posed by its loss.

This loss could be both to individuals being assisted and to the organisation’s ability to maintain its negotiated access. This could result in discarding data that would otherwise be useful. Clearly, this will often be an extremely difficult calculation to make. However, much of the promise held by new humanitarian data technologies depends on it.

*Martin Searle is Associate Research Fellow with the Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

Apple Unveils iPhone 8 And 8 Plus

0
0

Apple unveiled the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus, as well as the much-anticipated iPhone X at its annual September event on Tuesday, September 12, and thankfully the less expensive iPhones of the three announced won’t totally break the bank.

The iPhone 8 will start at $699 while the iPhone 8 Plus starts at $799, both at 64GB configuration. They will both be upgradeable to a 256GB model. The iPhone 8 has a 4.7-inch display while the iPhone 8 Plus has a 5.5-inch display.

The first two phones are made from glass and aluminum and are water-resistant. They include an HD retina display, stereo speakers with deeper bass, A11 bionic chip, Apple’s own GPU, and 12MP dual cameras. Most notably, they are now capable of wireless charge, which will work with any Qi-capable charging pad.

The new phones be available in three colors — silver, space gray, and gold. Apple will open preorders on September 15 and the phones are expected to be in stores on September 22nd.

The iPhone X (pronounced “iPhone ten”) is also real. It will start from $999, pre-orders will begin on October 27, while shippings will start on November 3.

CEO Tim Cook unveiled the biggest redesign of the iPhone in the Steve Jobs theater at Apple’s brand-new campus. As expected, the phone is dominated by a massive screen that takes up the entire front of the display. Just like Samsung’s Galaxy S8, the bezels are barely there, though the iPhone X has a slightly odd “cut-out” at the top of the phone to allow for the front-facing camera and sensors. The lack of bezels means the phone isn’t that much bigger than the iPhone 7.

The “super retina” display is 5.8 inches with a 2436 x 1125 resolution — that works out to 458 pixels per inch, by far the highest ever seen on an iPhone. Phil Schiller also notes that it’s an OLED screen, the first that’s “good enough” for an iPhone. The screen supports HDR, and naturally includes 3D Touch technology and the “true tone” display on the iPhone 8 and iPad Pro.

To accommodate this giant display, Apple has ditched the home button and touch ID. Given that every iPhone has had a home button, this change might even be a bigger deal than the bigger screen. The phone is wrapped with stainless steel and has glass on the front and back; surprisingly, it only comes in two finishes (silver and black).

To replace Touch ID, the iPhone X is locked until you look at it and it recognizes you. Apple is calling this “Face ID.” It uses the front-facing camera as well as other sensors, including an infrared sensor, flood illuminator and dot projector to unlock the phone. (Apple’s calling it a True Depth sensor.) It’ll update your face scan frequently to account for changes like haircuts, hats and beards. Schiller says it’s a one in a million chance that someone else’s face would unlock your phone, compared to one in 50,000 for Touch ID.

Game-Changer: North Korean Provocations Spark Policy Dilemmas – Analysis

0
0

North Korea recklessly improves and tests its nuclear arsenal as China, Russia and the US fail to agree on a plan.

By Robert A. Manning*

We are approaching a moment of truth in how to respond to North Korea, with war or peace hanging in the balance. “Enough is enough,” an exasperated Nikki Haley, US Representative to the United Nations, summed up accumulating US frustration over the unprecedented, game-changing North Korean provocations.

In the span of less than a week, Pyongyang fired a ballistic missile over the Japanese island of Hokkaido, tested what it claimed to be a hydrogen bomb, and reportedly prepares for another intercontinental ballistic missile test. Even before the latest escalating cycle of tension, the war of words between Donald Trump’s “fire and fury” rhetoric and Kim Jong Un’s one-upping responses had the world on edge. Despite near universal condemnation of Pyongyang’s tests from the United States, China, Russia, South Korea and Japan, the consensus may end there.

The United States, along with Japan and South Korea, are seeking to toughen UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea, which currently ban the export of coal, a range of minerals and seafood. The United States, already imposing secondary sanctions against Chinese and other businesses violating UN sanctions, seeks to cut off Pyongyang’s access to hard currency. Washington is calling for an end to North Korean foreign laborers – mainly in Russia and China and a major source of hard currency – and a cutoff of oil supplies, most of which come from China.

However, in a joint statement at the BRICS Summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin “deplored” the nuclear test while emphasizing that the crisis “should only be settled through peaceful means and direct dialogue.” The declaration added: “we condemn military interventions, economic sanctions and arbitrary use of unilateral coercive measures…”

Despite Beijing and Moscow’s call for dialogue, it’s increasingly clear that North Korea has no interest in talks on denuclearization. In a speech at a recent Association of Southeast Asian Nations Regional Forum, Pyongyang’s Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho was blunt: “We will, under no circumstances, put the nukes and ballistic rockets on [the] negotiating table.”

Still, Beijing expresses skepticism about more extensive sanctions, as captured in a recent editorial in Global Times, a daily owned by the Communist Party that often previews official thinking: “we should avoid resorting to rash and extreme means by imposing a full embargo on North Korea.” Earlier this year, the newspaper had suggested if North Korea conducted a sixth nuclear test, China would consider cutting at least some oil supplies.

Though Beijing shares the US opposition to North Korea’s nuclear weapons and repeated calls for denuclearization, its fear of instability on the border carries higher priority. China’s mild response was particularly striking, as Pyongyang’s nuclear test was a clear affront, coming just as Xi was about to deliver a major speech at the China-hosted BRICS summit. As he needs to project strength in gearing up for the October 19th Party Congress, he seems more comfortable being humiliated by Pyongyang than being pressured into cooperation by Washington.

Like Trump’s repeated threatening tweets, Beijing’s mild response to an incorrigible North Korea raises the question whether Kim Jong Un has concluded that the world’s two largest militaries are both paper tigers and feels emboldened to act with impunity.  Kim’s cockiness, combined with Trump’s impulsiveness, significantly raises the risk of miscalculation.

The US continues to emphasize that ”all options are on the table,” and Defense Secretary James Mattis warned after the hydrogen-weapon test  while the United States doesn’t seek “total annihilation” of North Korea, “any threat to the US, its territories like the Pacific island of Guam, or… allies would be met with a massive military response … both effective and overwhelming.”

The game of nuclear chicken is threatening to spin out of control. With 25 million people within North Korean artillery and missile range – including more than 100,000 US citizens in greater Seoul on any given day – any military conflict would risk the lives of hundreds of thousands. In the United States, a “preemptive” strike is bandied about. But given that the US doesn’t know the tunnels, mountains or other hiding places for many of Kim’s mobile missiles, or the exact number of nuclear weapons or location of uranium-enrichment facilities, it’s likely that US military action could destroy only a small part of the North’s missile and nuclear program.  Is that a risk worth taking?

But even if the policy of increasing pressure and strangulation of North Korea’s economy were successful, that also poses problems. One reason China is leery of economic suffocation is fear that North Korea, if put in a corner, might lash out in a “use it or lose” situation. An oil embargo on Japan in the 1930’s was among the reasons Tokyo attacked Pearl Harbor. On the other hand, comprehensive sanctions, as were applied to Iran, have not yet been tried in the case of North Korea. It’s possible that economic disruption could produce a change in their behavior. If true, however, this would take time to play out – at least nine or even 12 months.

The timing factor is crucial. Kim appears to be in a mad rush to obtain an operational ICBM and hydrogen bomb, though with his current missile and nuclear arsenal he has already achieved mutual deterrence with the United States. Several possible scenarios, explain why, ranging from the extremely terrible to the catastrophic.

The most benign scenario is that once Kim has the ability to hold US cities hostage, North Korea and the United States will live with a state of mutual deterrence and containment. But if the United States maintains sanctions and isolation, Kim may threaten war, call for a nuclear and missile freeze, the price being de facto acceptance of Pyongyang as a nuclear state, similar to Pakistan, with sanctions lifted. A darker scenario is that once Pyongyang has a reliable ICBM, it will seek to intimidate the United States off the Korean Peninsula, breaking the US-South Korean alliance with a threat of limited nuclear war and then seeking to coerce South Korea into reunification on Kim’s terms.

Such scenarios pose potentially painful choices for both the United States and China, ones that could transform Northeast Asia. If the United States accepts North Korea as a nuclear state with ICBM capability, the reliability of US extended deterrence nuclear umbrellas for both South Korea and Japan may be in doubt: Seoul and Tokyo may no longer see US guarantees as credible if Kim forces the question as to whether Washington would trade Los Angeles for Seoul.

For China, accepting a defiant nuclear North Korea and only partially implementing sanctions could bring the worst of both worlds. Trump has already threatened to cut off trade with nations doing business with North Korea. Though Trump is highly unlikely to disrupt a $650 billion annual trade relationship with China, Beijing’s cooperation on North Korea is a key metric for the already troubled US-China relationship: The issue will either underpin more cooperative bilateral ties or become a major irritant and source of growing distrust.

Northeast Asia’s future at stake. The best hope is that, as occurred with Iran, China and the United States cooperate on comprehensive sanctions that can influence Kim’s calculus and behavior.

*Robert A. Manning is a senior fellow of the Brent Scowcroft Center for International Security at the Atlantic Council and its Foresight, Strategy and Risks Initiative. He served as a senior counselor to the UnderSecretary of State for Global Affairs from 2001 to 2004, as a member of the US Department of State Policy Planning Staff from 2004 to 2008, and on the National Intelligence Council (NIC) Strategic Futures Group, from 2008 to 2012.  

Theresa May Needs To Tell Britain The Truth About Brexit – OpEd

0
0

By Yossi Mekelberg*

Asking the British people in a referendum for their opinion about Brexit was meant to bring to an end, at long last, the divisions within British society over the EU. Since the UK joined the European Common Market in 1973, this issue has dominated and poisoned discourse.

The June 2016 referendum was like a penalty shoot-out, producing a decisive winner regardless of the inadequate manner in which it was achieved. Instead it highlighted very powerfully that the British people were divided on this issue almost right down the middle. Even worse, the result that gave a slight majority to the Brexiteers exposed most politicians as out of touch and totally unprepared.

The intricate nature of EU membership makes it a long and complex process to join, and leaving it is proving to be a nightmare for both the EU and the UK. As such it should not come as a surprise that the negotiations in these early stages are tense and progress is slow. There is no precedent, and both sides start from acutely different positions. They are more interested in keeping their own constituencies content than in reaching an agreement. This is particularly true of the UK, whose political system has experienced a massive earthquake. First, Prime Minister David Cameron was forced to resign the day after the referendum; then a year later an ill-conceived general election declared by Cameron’s successor Theresa May sent her back in 10 Downing Street, but having lost her majority in Parliament. It is doubtful that she will still be in office in March 2019, when the UK leaves the EU.

At the heart of the Brexit saga has been the issue of immigration, and a leaked document last week from the Home Office, Britain’s Interior Ministry, revealed its thinking on post-Brexit immigration from the EU. The bottom line of this document is that the British government is determined to end the free movement of labor as soon as it leaves the EU. With the exception of highly skilled EU workers, the aim is to reduce substantially the number of lower-skilled EU migrants, allowing them the right to work in the UK for a maximum of two years. This approach may not be unexpected, as it is a true reflection of a government that is ideologically anti-immigration and anti-migrant. Nevertheless, it also reveals that it is a government that is ready to pursue a policy even when there is mounting evidence against it.

A recent survey by auditors KPMG suggests that nearly half of EU nationals working in the UK are thinking about leaving. The younger, better qualified and higher paid are the most likely to be considering leaving. The dire consequences of a serious brain drain need no elaboration. Low-skilled workers are also much needed and are not going to be replaced by British workers. Moreover, the offensive language used against migrants by British officials has become off-putting to many who now feel less valued and less welcome in the UK. It is the highly skilled among them who by the nature of their skills are the most mobile, and will look for opportunities elsewhere. It is more than likely that in a matter of very few years a severe shortage of doctors, nurses, engineers, academics and managers will hit the British economy hard.

Isn’t it time for the British government to come clean with its own people about the real cost of Brexit and the pitfalls if concessions are not made? The immediate, pressing issues are an exit bill that could be up to €60 billion, the border between the north and south in Ireland, and the right of EU citizens in the UK to stay indefinitely. These are three massive issues for which the European negotiators are holding May and her government responsible and demanding that they come up with viable suggestions. Otherwise the UK is risking its access to the single market, which is so vital to British economic interests.

There is no escape from the fact that the EU is founded on the freedom of movement of goods, services, capital and labor. Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, put it in her own straightforward style in a speech in which she restated that Europe’s “four freedoms” are not for picking and mixing, but are inseparable. If the UK is to stand any chance of remaining inside the single market, it will also have to make far-reaching concessions on the free movement of labor.

As the Brexit clock ticks, the British government, and those who supported leaving the EU, have to accept that enjoying the privileges and benefits of being a member of the single market will require a sea change in their views on immigration. For too long some sections of British politics, society and the xenophobic right-wing media have hijacked the debate about Europe and immigration. If there is a silver lining to Brexit it is that it has laid bare not only the ugliness of nationalistic jingoism, but also how damaging it is to Britain’s national interests.

• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations at Regent’s University London, where he is head of the International Relations and Social Sciences Program. He is also an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media. Twitter: @YMekelberg

Duterte’s Shift Toward China Threatens ASEAN Centrality, Forces Other Claimants To Take Stand – OpEd

0
0

The feeble stance of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on the South China Sea in the past has been made even weaker by the sudden shift of Philippine foreign policy under the Duterte administration. As the chairman for this year’s summit, the Philippines could have used this opportunity to rally the Southeast Asian states to support and uphold the arbitration ruling that it won in July 2016, affirming the rights of littoral states under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Instead, President Duterte decided not to talk to China about the ruling for now – while he resets diplomatic ties and secures economic aid from China.

Apparently, the Philippines (under Duterte) has elected to move on. Even with reports of Chinese presence and activity within the 12 nautical mile territorial sea of Pag-asa island, the current administration chooses to keep silent and is too mindful of how the Chinese would feel about any pushback the Duterte government might take with regard to the issue. The decision not to file a diplomatic protest or to hold closed-door negotiations, despite the Chinese militarization activities and what Duterte acknowledged as the threat of war, brings into question whether Philippine national interest is indeed being prioritized by his administration. A diplomatic protest would at the very least signal to China, the international community and the Filipino people that the government is doing its part in protecting Philippine sovereignty.

This sudden change in Philippines-China relations shows that Chinese influence remains to be one of the greatest challenges to ASEAN centrality when it comes to the South China Sea disputes. This is evident in the statements of Philippine foreign secretary Alan Peter Cayetano and the outcome of the Joint Communiqué of the 50th Asean Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, which noticeably emphasized the benefits of ASEAN cooperation with China in the disputed area. If countries like Vietnam and Malaysia had not been more adamant in their position compared with the Philippines, the communique might not have mentioned the serious concern about reclamation and other alarming activities of China in the area.

Other ASEAN claimants do not share the same approach as the Philippines. Contrary to the Philippines’ softer stance, Indonesia has used the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration to its benefit by renaming the disputed area within its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea as the North Natuna Sea. Aside from continuously challenging China by pushing for tougher language in the joint communique and calling for a ‘legally binding’ Code of Conduct, Vietnam plans to strengthen its cooperation with a strategic partner – India – not only in procurement of military equipment but also in seeking a greater Indian role in exploring oil and gas in the disputed area. Vietnam has also sought a deeper defense cooperation with the United States, and secured a promise of a visit from a U.S. aircraft carrier by 2018. Malaysia, which had always been cautious about its actions in the South China Sea due to its close economic ties with China, also continuously increases it naval defense capabilities and military spending. Recently, Malaysia also set fire to illegal fishing boats that had been confiscated in the disputed area.

Duterte’s shift and the rejuvenation of Philippines-China ties has given China an opportunity to undermine ASEAN centrality when it comes to the disputes. The major power is expected to take advantage of the weaker ASEAN stance and to fast track the affirmation of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC) while it can still control and dictate the rules. However, what good would a non-legally binding code of conduct have for the claimant ASEAN countries? It would be like the 2002 Declaration of Conduct which failed to deter China from pursuing reclamation and aggressive behavior towards fishermen and citizens of other claimant states – a mere document that does not hold any aggressor liable. As Professor Carl Thayer argues, a non-binding COC would be a disaster of the first order. It will leave the ASEAN claimant states no option but to eventually capitulate to China if the situation ever leads to the use of force.

On the other hand, a legally binding COC would provide assurance to the smaller and weaker claimants that might does not make right, and that all claimant states will be equally subject to international law. It would be a stable foundation of trust and proof of China’s benign intentions for Southeast Asia. While the COC was envisioned as “a set of norms to guide the conduct of parties and promote maritime cooperation in the South China Sea”, ASEAN and China should find a way to make violators accountable for various aggressive actions like harrassment of fishermen and causing irreparable environmental damage.

Other South China Sea claimants (Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei) that have depended and benefitted from the actions of the Philippines in the past now need to take a more forward and stronger role not only by defending their respective interests but also by giving more importance to ASEAN centrality in managing the SCS disputes. Economic cooperation with China should not make the Philippines or any ASEAN country complacent when it comes to matters of national defense and security. It would be naïve to think that China will back down or halt improvements in its occupied islands just because of the positive development of its relations. ASEAN states, moreover, cannot merely rely on any single member or its external partners in solving the disputes. To play a more effective role, ASEAN should put forward the common interests of its member states and have a unified stance on the South China Sea.

The COC may be the start of a lasting and peaceful resolution of the disputes between ASEAN claimant states and China, which will indeed be beneficial for the region. However, any realist would say that this depends on how fairly and firmly the agreement will be implemented, considering the complex disputes and power asymmetry in the South China Sea.

*Florence Principe is a graduate student of International Studies at the University of the Philippines, Diliman. This article was published at APPFI.

Jihadist Support For Rohingya Puts Pakistan And China On The Spot – Analysis

0
0

A call for action to help Rohingya Muslims by prominent US Treasury-designated Pakistani militant Masood Azhar puts both Pakistan and China on the spot and raises the spectre of the plight of Myanmar’s beleaguered Muslim community energizing jihadists in South and Southeast Asia.

Saadi, widely believed to be a pen name for Mr. Azhar, the leader of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), a jihadist group also proscribed by the United Nations and Pakistan, positioned the Rohingya as a new wake-up call in his most recent weekly column in Al-Qalam, the organization’s magazine.

“It is because of the sacrifices of the Myanmar Muslims that the ummah is waking up and we are seeing this new awakening among the Muslims of the world. All Muslims of the world must unite for this cause. We have to do something. And do it urgently. Myanmar’s soil is earnestly waiting for the thumping sound of the footsteps of the conquerors,” Mr. Azhar wrote.

A brutal crackdown on Myanmar’s Rohingya minority that in recent weeks has sent some 300,000 people fleeing the violence into neighbouring Bangladesh, has already stirred deep-seated emotions across the Muslim world. Pakistan has officially protested against the violence while thousands of demonstrators have taken to the streets of Pakistani and other predominantly Muslim cities. Pakistan has for decades been home to some 55,000 Rohingya with no hope of obtaining Pakistani citizenship.

By adding his voice to the protests, Mr. Azhar, a former fighter in the anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan who is believed to have been responsible for an attack last year on India’s Pathankot Air Force Station, has complicated things for Pakistan and China. Adding fuel to the fire, Mr. Azhar coupled his defence of the Rohingya with praise for Osama bin Laden.

Launching a tirade against Myanmar Buddhist extreme nationalist leader Ashin Wirathu, Mr. Azhar argued that it was wrong to designate him as ‘Buddhism’s Bin Laden.’

“Bin Laden was a lion who came out to help the helpless, while Wirathu is just a dog who is barking while sitting in the comforts of his home. Bin Laden was a brave and fearless man who challenged global imperialism on its face, while Wirathu is a lowly coward who is attacking unarmed civilians,” Mr. Azhar wrote.

The problem for Pakistan and China is not simply that Mr. Azhar is a wanted fugitive who is able to write in a magazine that is published by a group that although banned continues to publicly raise funds and recruit fighters. The problem is also not just that the article indicates jihadist exploitation of the Rohingya issue at a time that the Islamic State (IS) responds to setbacks in Syria and Iraq by expanding operations beyond the Middle East.

The problem is that the article puts Pakistan and China in a position of shielding the leader of a group that has been designated as terrorist and who has no compunction about his support for jihadist figures like Mr. Bin Laden. China has repeatedly vetoed Mr. Azhar’s designation by the United Nations Security Council, allegedly at Pakistan’s behest. The council is scheduled to again discuss designating Mr. Azhar in early 2018.

China’s position is even more on the line after President Xi Jingping this month joined the leaders of Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa for the first time in identifying Pakistan-backed militant groups as a regional security threat.

Mr. Azhar’s article followed a call by Indonesia’s militant Islamic ­Defenders Front (FPI) for volunteers to wage jihad in defence of the Rohingya, raising the spectre of foreign fighters making their way to the country. A militant insurgency in Rakhine state would open a second front against jihadists in Southeast Asia where Filipino forces have been battling since May the IS-affiliated Maute group in the southern city of Marawi.

Shaykh Abu Ibrahim al-Hanif, the leader of an IS offshoot in Bangladesh vowed in an interview with Dabiq, an IS magazine, to “begin launching operations within Burma once we’ve reached the capability to do so.” For now, Mr. Al-Hanif’s threat seems little more than an empty word. He said IS would only have the capacity once it had toppled the government of Bangladesh much like it has postponed targeting Israel until it had overthrown the leaders of Egypt and Syria.

The FPI’s call is supported by fatwas or religious opinions issued by Islamic scholars in the last year in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh and India as well as Mufti Ziabur Rahman, a Rakhine-based Saudi Rohingya cleric. The scholars argued that resistance to forces opposing Islam was legitimate.

Quoting Indian intelligence, The Indian Express reported that JeM had trained Rohingya in camps in Bangladesh. It said that Khalid Mohammed, a member of the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO), admitted to Indian police that he had received explosives training. Two other RSO members were detained in 2013 in Indonesia on charges of planning to attack the Myanmar embassy in Jakarta.

The Indian paper said that Lashkar-e-Taibe, another banned Pakistani group whose leader Hafez Saeed was put under house arrest in Lahore earlier this year had organized in 2012 a conference in solidarity with the Rohingya and sent operatives to Bangladesh and Thailand to contact refugees from Myanmar.

Whipping up emotions, Mr. Azhar asserted that “had whatever Ashin Wirathu and his supporters are doing been done by a Muslim country to its non-Muslim minorities, there would have been an uproar. The United Nations Security Council would have passed a resolution against it, there would have been economic sanctions against Muslims and finally, their country would have been bombarded by western forces.”

Turkish and Indonesian efforts to aid the Rohingya coupled with a request by Britain and Sweden for a meeting of the UN Security Council are in part designed to take the wind out of jihadist sails and pre-empt an escalation in Myanmar and radicalization among the Rohingya. Those are first steps. Without a structural solution and a more universal crackdown on jihadist groups that see mileage in the Rohingya’s suffering, Myanmar’s Bengali Muslims are just as likely to become yet another festering wound that feeds extremist narratives.

The World May Be Disappointed Day After German Election – OpEd

0
0

By Nick Ottens*

(FPRI) — After last year’s victories for Brexit and Donald Trump, liberals looked to Angela Merkel in Germany for hope. The conservative chancellor was suddenly—and unwillingly—promoted to “leader of the free world.”

She is unlikely to live up to expectations. Merkel has no grand vision. She only phased out nuclear energy and allowed a free vote on gay marriage when public opinion demanded it. Her decision in 2015 to open Germany’s borders to more than a million refugees stands out because it was so uncharacteristic of her.

Merkel’s pragmatism is both her strength and her weakness: it is the reason she has been able to stay in power for twelve years as well as the reason divisive issues remain unresolved.

Two of Merkel’s three governments have been so-called grand coalitions of the center-left and the center-right. Germany’s multiparty democracy and five-percent threshold to win seats in parliament discourage wild swings to the left or the right. German labor relations are exceptionally harmonious. Employers and trade unions are often reasonable. Strikes are rare. As a result, Germany has largely escaped the populist revolts that swept the Anglo-Saxon world. The Alternative for Germany, a right-wing populist and Eurosceptic party, struggles to get more than 10 percent support.

But stability can turn into sclerosis. All the major parties in Germany agree the country has underinvested in its infrastructure, both digital and physical. Economists have long argued that excessive certification and licensing requirements that protect working-class jobs also make it harder for immigrants to find work. Strategists have warned for years that Germany isn’t spending enough money on defense. Yet nothing changes.

Foreign policy plays only a small role in the current election campaign, but here, too, a status quo bias prevails. Merkel has told Germans they cannot fully rely on the United States for their security anymore. Trump has made clear he expects NATO allies to step up. Yet, German attitudes aren’t changing. Increasing defense spending remains unpopular. Germany has sent 400 soldiers to Lithuania, where they lead a NATO battalion to deter Russian aggression, but opinions on this deployment are divided. Many voters still hope that Europe might reach an understanding with Russia. And Vladimir Putin is trusted more than Trump.

Looking at the Possible Coalition Outcomes

Another grand coalition would have a comfortable majority, but it would mean four more years of muddling through. The center-left Social Democrats want to keep defense spending where it is (1.2 percent of GDP). They argue for a European army, something the United States has historically sought to avoid. And they counsel patience and diplomacy with Russia.

A better outcome for Atlanticists would be a center-right government of Merkel’s Christian Democrats and the pro-business Free Democrats. Both favor meeting NATO’s two percent spending target. Both see Trump as an aberration and hope transatlantic relations will return to normal in 2020. Neither is particularly Russia-friendly.

The center-right is projected to fall just short of a majority, however, as a result of the Alternative stealing its most reactionary voters. If anything, polls have shown a tendency to underestimate support for the Alternative.

A center-left coalition with the Greens is also likely to fall short. Once considered far left, the Greens have become mainstream in the last two decades. But they aren’t sure if they should ever rule with the Christian Democrats. The pragmatic half of the party thinks so. This part of the party has led the Greens into power-sharing agreements in four of Germany’s sixteen states. Fundamentalists are still wary. The leadership has so far refused to commit either way.

Another possibility is a three-party coalition of Christian Democrats, Free Democrats, and Greens. Such a coalition was formed in Schleswig-Holstein this summer, but it is still more of a cosmopolitan fantasy than a tried-and-tested formula. To lure the Greens into a national government with the right, the Christian Democrats would probably need to promise them significant concessions. For example, a freeze in military spending. Or a shift from counter-Russian operations in Eastern Europe to peacekeeping and reconstruction in the developing world.

All of these options have one thing in common: Merkel. It will be impossible to ignore her (unless the Social Democrats surprise everyone and break their promise and form a government with the formerly-communist Left party). Yet, she is not the decisive factor. The way Germany will conduct itself on the world stage rather hinges on which party, or parties, choose to support her.

The thing to watch on September 24 will not be the scale of Merkel’s victory, but the performance of her juniors. That will determine if liberal internationalists sleep well that night or go to bed worrying.

About the author:
*Nick Ottens
is a Dutch political analyst living in Barcelona, Spain. He specializes in political trends in Europe and North America and edits the transatlantic opinion website Atlantic Sentinel.

Source:
This article was published at FPRI.


Azerbaijan Loses Its Position As A Center Of Economic Power In South Caucasus – OpEd

0
0

In early 2017, a number of experts made the following prediction: “Azerbaijan will lose its position as a center of economic power in the South Caucasus.”

Six months later, this prediction continues to come true.

Georgia’s economy is growing steadily and the country is experiencing positive economic dynamics.
Without having natural resources that bring currency in large volume, Georgia can surpass Azerbaijan in terms of GDP at the end of this year or at the beginning of 2018.

According to the “Global Economic Prospects” (GEPs) made by the World Bank (WB) states that economic growth of Georgia will be the greatest among the countries of the South Caucasus region in the years 2017-2019.

At the same time, according to the reports published by “Business Georgia”, for the first half of 2017 Azerbaijan has invested in Georgia $224,2 million, that amounts to 36.6 percent of the total foreign direct investment in neighboring economy.

Despite the fact that Azerbaijan remains the top foreign investor of Georgia, the volume of Azerbaijan’s investments is decreased by 20.3 percent from previous year.

It is clear that the investors are not ready now to allocate huge funds for the development of Georgia, in particular its sectors of transport and communication, energy, hotels and restaurants, real estate building.

If we consider the whole period of Azerbaijan and Georgia cooperation, Baku has invested more than $3.6 billion.

Georgian investments in Azerbaijan have amounted to $80 million. Without exaggeration, you see how huge the difference is.

Nevertheless, after the 6th tripartite meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey in Baku, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Georgia Mikheil Janelidze continues to claim about the need of these countries to provide support and make infrastructure investments in each other.

Of course, Tbilisi is not interested in the Baku’s decline in investment that can impede huge growth of Georgia’s GDP.

I can say with great confidence that Georgia’s current economic indicators are of particular importance now, when Georgian President Giorgi Margvelashvili needs to convince the European Union and the North Atlantic Alliance in wealth, economic stability and independence of Georgia from other countries.  This is aimed at his country being accepted as a member of EU and NATO.

The expansion of trade-economic cooperation with Georgia is definitely beneficial also for Azerbaijan, but while contributing to the growth of the neighboring economy, the investors should first consider the projects that can strengthen the non-oil sector of Azerbaijan and the country’s economy.

It’s the same story with the government that needs to keep in mind the value of protectionism and long term interests of its homeland when signing any agreements.

Libya: No Salvation From War Without Unification, Haftar Is Key – OpEd

0
0

Several power centers were formed in Libya as a result of the fall of Muammar Gaddafi’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya and the destruction of the statehood. None of them has a national legitimacy. The pursuit of personal interests by some political leaders to the detriment of the general state is intertwined with territorial fragmentation. The historic regions — Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and Fezzan — have de facto separated from each other. The Libyan phenomenon of the city-state has risen (Misrata, Al-Zintan, Sirte, etc.) and the separatist tendencies of the tribes have grown stronger.

Along with this, the UN has attempted to stabilize the situation in the country. In December, 2015, the UN brokered the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA), the Presidential Council (PC) was set up and a Government of National Accord (GNA) headed by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj was formed. The agreement also confirmed the legitimacy of the House of Representatives (HoR) based in Tobruk in eastern Libya and has the support of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the Libyan National Army (LNA) commander.

Libya
Libya. Source: CIA World Factbook

Despite the UN’s efforts, however, the conflict between Islamist, Anti-Islamist, secular, tribal and simply criminal groups that resulted in the civil war has been caused by historic, social, economic and political circumstances including the interests and interference of foreign parties. Indeed, NATO’s involvement in contravention of UNSC Resolution 1973 turned Libya into a hotbed for terrorist and extremist groups, a center for human trafficking and cheap resources market.

Today, the country is de facto divided by the East-West axis. The eastern regions are under LNA control. In early July, Marshal Haftar’s troops recaptured Benghazi partly stabilizing the situation in the East.

Meanwhile, in the West, tension between the groups allegedly supporting Fayez al-Sarraj’s Government of National Accord and those who were loyal to Khalifa al-Ghawil’s Government of National Salvation has resulted in violent clashes. Rival militias have been battling heavily one another in Tripoli since December 2016.

The South of the once rich and beautiful country has become a battlefield of eastern and western sides, tribes and terrorists where Haftar’s supporters were slain by the Misrata-based Third Force militants in early May 2017.

The crisis is aggravated as a result of various Salafist jihadi groups with different ideologies that are in constant conflict in western Libya, and includes such groups as Libya Dawn (Libya Fajr), the Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council, Ansar al-Sharia, the 17 February Martyrs Brigade, the Libya Shield Force, the Libyan Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG), etc.

However, the West, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey possess more powerful tools for destabilizing the region e.g. ISIS, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and the Muslim Brotherhood.

A key part in counteracting IS and AQIM belongs to General Haftar who is taking measures to eliminate jihadists on the Libyan soil, near Sabha and Sirte cities in particular. Having lost Sirte, the terrorists dispersed in three directions: to the southwest of Sabha, to the west of Sabratah and to the southeast near the Sudan border. The main problem of neutralizing the groups is that they are being reinforced with volunteers from Tunis, Algeria, Mali, Chad and Nigeria and terrorists fleeing from Syria and Iraq.

However, while the situation in the east has stabilized, the western regions are less stable and prone to changes. Mostly, this is tied to the lack of political will on the part of Sarraj and the GNA, and to the diversity of the ultra-conservative Salafist groups in the west.

Although these opposing factions are nominally loyal to Prime Minister Saraj, experience has shown that they are not associated with any political leader. The most telling example is when at the end of October 2016, the forces of Haitham Tajouri, who heads Tripoli’s largest militia and who was allegedly loyal to the Government of National Salvation, allowed the units of Khalifa al-Ghawil to seize a number of ministries in Tripoli. There is also a question of the legitimacy of supporting these essentially terrorist formations by Fayez al-Sarraj. Probably, the latter uses them as a force capable in the future to counter the rising popularity of Khalifa Haftar among the population of Libya.

Thus, unlike Prime Minister F. Saraj, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar is a serious military and political figure on the Libyan chessboard capable of uniting tribes and clans under his banners, limiting the flows of illegal migration to the EU, liquidating the terrorist organizations like ISIS, AKIM and Muslim Brotherhood, thus restoring the statehood in the country.

*Adel Karim is an independent investigative correspondent who writes on the Middle East.

Singapore: Ms. Halimah Yacob To Become First Female President – OpEd

0
0

Ms. Halimah Yacob, 63, former Speaker of Parliament, became the first woman and first Malay in 47 years to ascend to the Presidency of Singapore after successfully filing her nomination papers on Sept 13 as the sole eligible candidate for this year’s reserved Presidential Election. She will be officially sworn in as Singapore’s eighth President on September 14 at the Istana, the Prime Minister’s Office announced.

Returning Officer Ng Wai Choong declared Ms. Halimah as the President-elect at the People’s Association headquarters along King George’s Avenue to loud cheers by hundreds of Halimah’s supporters. The last Malay to hold the presidency was Yusof Ishak, whose image adorns the country’s banknotes. Yusof Ishak was President between 1965 and 1970, the first years of Singapore’s independence following a short-lived union with neighburing Malaysia, but executive power rested with Lee Kuan Yew, the country’s Prime Minister.

Aiming to strengthen a sense of inclusivity in the multicultural country, Singapore had decreed the presidency would be reserved for candidates from the Malay community this time. Ms. Yacob’s experience as house speaker automatically qualified her under the nomination rules. Of the four other applicants, two were not Malays and two were not given certificates of eligibility, the elections department said.

First Malay President

This year’s Presidential Election was reserved for the Malays in a bid to ensure multiracial representation after Parliament passed into law changes to the Elected Presidency scheme last November. Apart from Halimah, two other hopefuls – chief executive of Second Chance Properties Mohamed Salleh Marican, 67, and chairman of marine services provider Bourbon Offshore Asia Pacific Farid Khan, 62 – had also filed application forms to contest as candidates. However, both men were determined ineligible by the Presidential Elections Committee as they did not meet one of the qualifying criteria that requires that private-sector candidates must have served as the chief executive of a company for at least three years, with the company having at least S$500 million in shareholders’ equity, on average, in the most recent three years.

While some members of the public have expressed happiness at Halimah’s ascension to the Presidency, others expressed disappointment that this was only made possible courtesy of a walkover. They want an election for full legitimacy. However, others noted that Madam Halimah is fully qualified to become the President and will be able to perform her duties well, citing her track record of over 40 years in public service.

Malays make up about 13 percent of the population, and the government is dominated by ethnic Chinese, who make up about three-quarters. There are no Muslim Malays in the top echelons of Singapore’s army, and few among the senior ranks of its judiciary, but a member of its poorest ethnic minority is set to become the first woman President of the Southeast Asian city state this week.
The government initially narrowed the criteria last year to permit only a Malay to serve as the next president, on the ground that no Malay had held the post in the five preceding terms.

The Presidential Election Committee later tightened the criteria, including a requirement that any candidate from the private sector must have been a senior executive of a company with at least 500 million Singapore dollars in equity, or about $371 million.

Two other Malays were considered by the commission, including Mohamed Salleh Marican, chief executive of Second Chance Properties. He had said that if he was elected, he would begin an investigation into the allegations that Mr. Lee abused his power in his dispute with his siblings. Both potential candidates were rejected on the grounds that the companies they headed were not large enough.

President Halimah

Ms. Halimah Yacob is Singapore’s eighth president and its first woman head of state, in the country’s first presidential election reserved for candidates from the Malay community.

The 63-year-old former Speaker of Parliament was the only presidential hopeful declared eligible to contest by the Presidential Elections Committee (PEC). “Whether there is an election or not, my passion and commitment to serve the people of Singapore remain the same,” she told reporters.
Halimah Yacob, who was born to an Indian Muslim father and Malay mother, puts minority representation on the agenda.

The youngest of five children, Ms. Halimah had described her childhood as a “terrible struggle” following the death of her Indian-Muslim father and family sole breadwinner. Her mother, who died in 2015, had to single-handedly raise the family by selling food on a pushcart. Halimah had studied at the Singapore Chinese Girls’ School and Tanjong Katong Girls’ School, before applying successfully to read law at the then University of Singapore.

Starting out as a lawyer, Halimah, 62, had spent over three decades in the National Trades Union Congress (NTUC). Before she became Speaker of Parliament in 2013, she had served as Minister of State at the then-Ministry of Community Development, Youth and Sports.

She collected her certificate of eligibility at the Elections Department in the afternoon, shortly after witnessing the election of her successor as Speaker in Parliament.

Ms. Halimah was a Member of Parliament and a leader of the People’s Action Party before giving up her seat last month to run for president. “I can only say that I promise to do the best that I can to serve the people of Singapore, and that doesn’t change whether there is an election or no election,” she told reporters Monday after she was certified as the only eligible candidate. Her campaign slogan — “Do Good, Do Together” — was widely panned as ungrammatical.

World’s attention is focused on Ms. Halimah as she will take her oath of office on Thursday, which will mark the start of her six-year term.

Despite being the establishment candidate, Ms. Yacob wears a hijab, which is banned in state schools and public sector jobs that require uniforms. But she has seldom spoken publicly on the issue and there is little sign of change in official attitudes.

Mixed reactions

There were three candidates for the presidency poll and they were issued certificates by the Community Committee confirming that they belong to the Malay community. After scrutiny, the PEC found only Ms. Ms. Halimah was the eligible candidate and informed the other two — marine services firm chairman Farid Khan, 61, and property company chief executive Salleh Marican, 67 — that they did not qualify to contest. Neither had helmed a company with $500 million in shareholder equity for the most recent three years, a key threshold required for candidates relying on their private-sector experience. In rejecting his application, the six-member panel said it was unable to satisfy itself that he had “the experience and ability” comparable to a chief executive of a company of that size and complexity.

The PEC noted the shareholders’ equity of Salleh’s company, Second Chance, averaged about $258 million, a sum “considerably below the minimum” required under the Constitution. Farid declined to disclose his company’s financials, but its value is believed to be much lower. He declined to show his letter from the PEC to the media. Both said they were disappointed not to be given the go-ahead, but thanked their families and supporters for their support over the past few months, and said they would continue to serve Singaporeans.

Under the law, the decision of the PEC, chaired by Public Service Commission chairman Eddie Teo, is final and not subject to appeal or review in any court. The uncontested election drew mixed reactions from observers, who welcomed Madam Halimah making history as the country’s first woman president and the first Malay head of state in 47 years.

Institute of Policy Studies deputy director Gillian Koh said: “Madam Halimah is a double minority – not only is she a Malay-Muslim individual, but a female.” But Dr Koh felt, “the statement of our acceptance of diversity would have been all the more powerful if there had been an open contest”.
However, political science professor Bilveer Singh of the National University of Singapore questioned the value of having a contest for a contest’s sake: “Being elected through a walkover does not undermine or delegitimize the winner.”

For Lee, whose son, Lee Hsien Loong, is now Prime Minister, the answer to social cohesion lay in creating a culture of meritocracy, rather than adopting policies of positive discrimination to boost the chances of advancement for Singapore’s Malay and Indian minorities.

Singapore

Singapore officially the Republic of Singapore, is also referred to as the “Lion City”, the “Garden City” or the “Little Red Dot”, is a sovereign city-state in Southeast Asia. Singapore, an island city-state off southern Malaysia, is a global financial center with a tropical climate and multicultural population. Its colonial core centers on the Padang, a cricket field since the 1830s and now flanked by grand buildings such as City Hall, with its 18 Corinthian columns. In Singapore’s circa-1820 Chinatown stands the red-and-gold Buddha Tooth Relic Temple, said to house one of Buddha’s teeth.

It lies one degree (137 km) north of the equator, just south of the Malay Peninsula across the Straits of Johor, with Indonesia’s Riau Islands to the south. Singapore’s territory consists of one main island along with 62 other islets. Since independence, extensive land reclamation has increased its total size by 23% (130 km2) and its greening policy has covered the densely populated island with tropical flora, parks and gardens.

Singapore is a global commerce, finance and transport hub. Its standings include: the most “technology-ready” nation (WEF), top International-meetings city (UIA), city with “best investment potential” (BERI), second-most competitive country, third-largest foreign exchange market, third-largest financial centre, third-largest oil refining and trading centre and the second-busiest container port. The country has also been identified as a tax haven.

Singapore ranks 5th on the UN Human Development Index and the 3rd highest GDP per capita. It is ranked highly in education, healthcare, life expectancy, quality of life, personal safety and housing. Although income inequality is high, 90% of homes are owner-occupied. 38% of Singapore’s 5.6 million residents are permanent residents and other foreign nationals. There are four official languages: English (common and first language), Malay, Mandarin and Tamil, though almost all Singaporeans are bilingual.

The separation of Singapore from Malaysia gave ethnic Malays a clear majority in Malaysia, while ethnic Chinese formed the majority in independent Singapore. Leaders of both countries, however, recognised that peace and prosperity depended on preserving harmony between the two groups. But living in a Muslim-dominated neighborhood, with Malaysia and Indonesia next door, Singapore’s leaders have long worried about the risk of conflicted loyalties among Malays.

President

The President of the Republic of Singapore is Singapore’s head of state. In a Westminster parliamentary system, as which Singapore governs itself, the prime minister is the head of the government while the president is largely ceremonial, broadly analogous to the Sovereign of the United Kingdom. A Constitutional Commission recommended changes to guarantee minority representation in the highest office in the land as well as to tighten eligibility criteria in keeping with the economy’s growth.

 

The President has been called “Singapore’s No. 1 diplomat” Ambassadors and high commissioners accredited to Singapore present their credentials to him, and he is called upon by visiting foreign leaders. In addition, he or she contributes to the nation’s external relations by undertaking overseas trips on Cabinet’s advice. Presidents have also used the office to champion charitable causes.

Discrimination

There are serious elements of discrimination in Singapore against minorities in all walks of life. A government report published in 2013 found Malays felt they were sometimes discriminated against and had limited prospects in some institutions, such as the armed forces.

Malays, who form just over 13 percent of Singapore’s 3.9 million citizens and permanent residents, also underperform on measures such as university and secondary school education.

The election of a Malay President is by itself unlikely to resolve concerns over under-representation, but analysts and advocates say it could help foster trust among communities.

Singapore’s economic success and education policies have helped swell the ranks of middle-class Malays, but the last census in 2010 showed they lagged other ethnic groups on socio-economic measures such as household incomes and home ownership.

Farid Khan, one of the unsuccessful candidates and the chairman of marine services firm Bourbon Offshore Asia, told Reuters more Malays now hold political office, and some are making their way in the corporate world, but “there is still room for improvement.”

Yet the reserved election has also injured some pride. “It cheapens the credibility of a Malay person that it requires a token election for us to be President,” said Malay comedian and television personality Hirzi Zulkiflie. “Some people intending to run are very capable.”

Observation

After getting elected as the first ever female President Ms. Halimah said she is the president of entire Singapore as she is committed to Singapore and Singaporeans. She asked people to forget the differences and instead work on the similarities among them to make the nation achieve greater goals.

Global Talent Crisis Lies At Heart Of Inequality Debate

0
0

Efforts to fully realize people’s economic potential – in countries at all stages of economic development – are falling short due to ineffective deployment of skills throughout the workforce, development of future skills and adequate promotion of ongoing learning for those already in employment. These failures to translate investment in education during the formative years into opportunities for higher-quality work during the working lifetime contributes to income inequality by blocking the two pathways to social inclusion, education and work, according to the World Economic Forum’s Human Capital Report 2017,.

The report measures 130 countries against four key areas of human capital development; Capacity, largely determined by past investment in formal education; Deployment, the application and accumulation of skills through work; Development, the formal education of the next generation workforce and continued upskilling and reskilling of existing workers; and Know-how, the breadth and depth of specialized skills-use at work. Countries’ performance is also measured across five distinct age groups or generations: 0-14 years; 15-24 years; 25-54 years; 55-64 years; and 65 years and over.

According to the report’s Human Capital Index, 62% of human capital has now been developed globally. Only 25 nations have tapped 70% of their people’s human capital or more. With the majority of countries leveraging between 50% and 70% of their human capital, 14 countries remain below 50%.

A fundamental tenet of the report is that accumulation of skills does not end at a formal education, and the continuous application and accumulation of skills through work is part of human capital development. All too often economies already possess the required talent but fail to deploy it.

While much is often made of intergenerational inequalities when it comes to the realization of human capital, the report finds every generation faces considerable challenges when it comes to realizing individual potential. For example, while younger people are consistently better off than older generations when it comes to the initial investment in their education, their skills are not always deployed effectively and too many employers continue to look for ready-made talent. The problem of under-deployment of skills among the young also affects those coming towards the end of their working life. Meanwhile, few among those currently in employment – across all age groups –are gaining access to higher skilled work and opportunities to enhance know-how.

“The Fourth Industrial Revolution does not just disrupt employment, it creates a shortfall of newly required skills. Therefore, we are facing a global talent crisis. We need a new mind-set and a true revolution to adapt our educational systems to the education needed for the future work force,” said Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum.

“Human capital is not a fixed concept – it can be enhanced over time, growing through use and depreciating through lack of use – across people’s lifetimes. This means we need a more proactive approach to managing the transition from education to employment and to ongoing learning and skills acquisition for today’s workforce. Otherwise, every country risks creating lost generations,” said Saadia Zahidi, Head, Education, Gender and Work, World Economic Forum.

“Skills are the fundamental unit of human capital. Knowing which skills are most resilient, most persistent, and most likely to remain relevant through technological innovation and economic change is key to successfully upskilling and reskilling workers. Using our data to arm governments and broader policy communities with a richer understanding of skills dynamics can and should fuel more nuanced and strategic investments in building human capital for the future,” said Guy Berger, LinkedIn Economist.

The Human Capital Index 2017

The top 10 is topped by smaller European countries – Norway (1), Finland (2), Switzerland (3) – as well as large economies such as the United States (4) and Germany (6). Four countries from East Asia and the Pacific region, three countries from the Eastern Europe and Central Asia region and one country from the Middle East and North Africa region are also in the index top 20.

At a regional level, the human capital development gap is smallest in North America, followed by Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, Latin America, and the Middle East and North Africa. The gap is largest in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

North America is the strongest regional performer, with an average score of 73.95. The United States (4) ranks in the top 10 and Canada (14) in the top 20.

Western Europe has an overall average score of 71.10, the second highest after North America. The rankings are dominated by the Nordic countries –Norway (1), Finland (2), Denmark (5) and Sweden (8), as well as Switzerland (3) and Germany (6) –which collectively take the region’s top spots. Twelve countries have crossed the threshold of developing at least 70% of their human capital. The Netherlands (13) and Belgium (15) rank ahead of the United Kingdom (23) and France (26) to make up the mid-range of the regional league table, while three Mediterranean countries – Portugal (43), Spain (44) and Greece (48) – take the bottom ranks.

Eastern Europe and Central Asia ranks in third place globally, with an overall average score of 67.36. Three countries from the region rank in the top 20: Slovenia (9), Estonia (12) and the Russian Federation (16). The Czech Republic (22), Ukraine (24) and Lithuania (25) all score above the 70% threshold. The bottom-ranked countries in the region, Macedonia, FYR (67) and Albania (85), are held back by high unemployment and underemployment rates across all age groups.

East Asia and the Pacific region scores towards the middle of the range of the index, with an overall average of 65.77. The best-performing countries in the region, such as Singapore (11), Japan (17) and the Republic of Korea (27), are global strongholds of human capital success, while countries such as Lao PDR (84), Myanmar (89) and Cambodia (92) trail behind despite their high degree of human capital utilization across the deployment pillar. ASEAN economies such as Thailand (40), Vietnam (64), Indonesia (65) and Malaysia (33) score towards the middle range. China (34) ranks well ahead of the other BRICS nations except for the Russian Federation.

Latin America and the Caribbean scores in the lower middle range of the index, with an overall average score of 59.86. The gap between the best and worst performers in the region is smaller than for any other region. The two best-performing countries in the region are Argentina (52) and Chile (53). The region’s two largest economies, Mexico (69) and Brazil (77), rank in the middle and lower half of the index overall along with Peru (66) and Colombia (68). The bottom ranks of the region are made up of Venezuela (94) and Central American nations such as Honduras (101).

Middle East and North Africa has an overall average score of 55.91. Only one country, Israel (18), from the region makes it into the top 20. Three gulf states – the United Arab Emirates (45), Bahrain (47) and Qatar (55) – outperform the rest of the region’s Arab-speaking countries and score in the mid-range of the index overall. Turkey (75) scores at 60%. Saudi Arabia (82), the region’s largest economy, ranks ahead of Egypt (97), its most populous one. Algeria (112), Tunisia (115) and Morocco (118) make up the lower end of the rankings, ahead of Mauritania (129) and Yemen (129).

South Asia scores second lowest in the index, with an overall average score of 54.10. Sri Lanka (70) is the top performer, while Nepal (98), India (103), Bangladesh (111) and Pakistan (125) lag behind. With the exception of Sri Lanka, the rest have yet to reach the 60% threshold with regard to developing their human capital.

With an overall average score of 52.97, sub-Saharan Africa is the lowest-ranked region in the index. Rwanda (71), Ghana (72), Cameroon (73) and Mauritius (74) have developed more than 60% of their human capital. South Africa (87), the region’s second largest economy, comes towards the middle in the region. Nigeria (114) ranks in the lower midfield and Ethiopia (127) is the lowest performer, fourth from the bottom on the index overall.

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): Challenges, Prospects And Recommendations – OpEd

0
0

Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China to Pakistan, Sun Weidong, while addressing the CPEC Media Forum, avidly expressed that, ”the CPEC is a process rather than just one project”.  CPEC is a flagship and a pilot project of the much larger One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative by visionary leader and the President of China Xi Jinping. Furthermore, CPEC is brimmed with a host of geo-economic, geo-strategic and geo-political connotations for Pakistan. It could potentially make Pakistan an economic and a trade hub. CPEC would lift the crippled economy of Pakistan, while accomplishing the target of $4200 Per Capita Income, would empower and develop the underdeveloped regions of Pakistan specifically Balochistan province, would alleviate poverty and unbridled inflation, would create around 02 million jobs and above all the CPEC would bring back the lost glory of Pakistan.

The following scheme of paragraphs deliberates upon the objectives of the CPEC, its major components, apprehensions, long-lasting internal and external challenges, prospects of the CPEC, and suggests a few inevitable recommendations.

According to the official message of Ahsan Iqbal, former Federal Minister for Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform (MPD&R), the CPEC is a $50 billion project at the outset. In addition, it would connect China’s underdeveloped western autonomous region Xinjiang through Khunjerab with the Pakistan’s southern deep sea port Gawadar Port, which is also the centrepiece of the CPEC, via a network of highways, railways and pipelines. The corridor, further, consists of one belt, three passages, two axes and five functional zones. Not only this, under the aegis of the CPEC China would invest $34 billion in energy sector and the remaining amount in developing the Gawadar city and region, improving basic infrastructure, industrial cooperation, reforming education, flourishing tourism and many other sectors with the passage of time.

The CPEC has a number of objectives. China’s President Xi Jinping has fairly observed that the CPEC would connect the ‘Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road’. Connecting the regions remains the prime objective. CPEC is aimed at connecting South, East, Central and West Asia and linking the entire Asian region with the African continent. Such a magnificent project as the CPEC would shift the power and economic centralization from West to East. Also it would change the strategic and economic paradigms in the region in general and make Pakistan an economic and a trade hub in particular. And for this very reason it is perfectly termed as ”fate changer” and/or game changer.

Moreover, there are various components of the CPEC. As per the details available on the official website of the Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform (MPD&R), CPEC would primarily work under 1+4 pattern. This further reveals that the 1) economic corridor is at the centre 2) development of Gawadar (city and region) 3) energy sector (thermal, hydro, solar, etc.) 4) industrial cooperation (twelve special economic zones) 5) basic infrastructure (Roads, railways, pipelines etc.) are incorporated.

Unfortunately, there has been a hue and cry over some aspects of the CPEC. Although, there are manifold apprehensions from distinct circles, a handful, however, has been unnecessarily questioning if the CPEC turn out to be another East India Company? Let’s not beat around the bushes the CPEC won’t turn out another East India Company. The reasons are as follows 1) notwithstanding its mighty strength China has never invaded another country in its 6000 years long history. Why would it do it now? 2) ‘Invest’ not ‘invade’ has always remained Beijing’s motto throughout its history. 3) China is an economic giant and it always explores new markets for its manufactures and investors.

Gwadar port of Pakistan. Photo by Umargondal, Wikimedia Commons.
Gwadar port of Pakistan. Photo by Umargondal, Wikimedia Commons.

Despite the fact, the Government of Pakistan, and formidable security forces specifically the robust Pakistan Army along with China have charted out a plan to address all the looming internal and external challenges, a few challenges still roam around. India, the United States, Japan, Iran and Afghanistan externally whereas, proscribed religious outfits such as the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and unchecked insurgent organizations based in war-wreaked but peace loving Balochistan province have been at the front to impair the flow of the CPEC. Let’s analyze the external challenges in detail.

India: Hindu-centric Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi, while addressing a public rally, termed the CPEC as ”unacceptable”. The CPEC is a thorn in India’s paw. Firstly, the CPEC would dismantle the dream of Modi’s India to becoming the regional power. Secondly, India’s maximum energy needs pass through the strategically-rich Strait of Hormuz, which is located merely 500kms from, Pakistan’s Gawadar Port. India wrongly perceives that once China gets access to the Indian Ocean via the Gawadar Port it would construct a huge naval base which would consequently threaten India’s maritime transport. Thirdly, India’s pipe dreaming has not ended yet. It has long been planning to re-occupy Kashmir and to take in its control Gilgit Baltistan, where the CPEC is initiated, and unnecessarily estimates these regions disputed. Nevertheless, for the aforementioned purposes Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), India’s secret arm, has established an anti-CPEC wing and a huge chunk of $300 million were allotted by the Modi government.

USA: The United State of America feels frightened from the CPEC because it would neutrally lead to China’s altogether emergence in the world in general and in the region in particular. After all the US has penetrated a lot of power since the cold war in the region.

Japan: New Delhi and India have joined hands once again to counter the ambitious CPEC. Analysts see the so-called Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) as a rival to the CPEC. Japan needlessly fears that once China gets easy access to the warm waters the African, Middle Eastern, Central Asian and European markets would completely tilt towards China particularly for electronic items. Thus would gradually diminish the value of its large exports, Japan observes.

Iran's Chabahar Port at night. Photo Credit: Ksardar1359, Wikipedia Commons.
Iran’s Chabahar Port at night. Photo Credit: Ksardar1359, Wikipedia Commons.

Iran: Though, Iran lambasted Gawadar Port seeing it as a rival port to its Chabahar Port which barley lies 70 kms from Gawadar Port, the reservations of Iran were meekly addressed by Pakistan. Therefore, in recent months Iran had expressed its desire to be a part of the CPEC.

Afghanistan: While depicting a goodwill gesture Pakistan formally asked Afghanistan to be a part of the CPEC to reap benefits. In fact, Islamabad, under the sponsorship of the CPEC, plans to construct 256 kms motorway from Peshawar to Kabul. However, the NDS-RAW nexus has underpinned Afghanistan’s unfortunate desires for the CPEC. On the other hand, the long lasting insurgency in Afghanistan is another major external threat to the CPEC.

The imminent internal security threats as follows:

The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Islamic State (IS), Islamic State in Khorasan (ISK), Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) and The East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) have been at the front to sabotage the CPEC. Whereas, the Switzerland, London and New Delhi based influential have not left any stone unturned to work against the CPEC. These self-exiled influential are ruthlessly exploiting innocent followers to achieve their craves. Moreover, lack of national of national consensus, political discontent, provincial disharmony and a pointless enigma of the Punjab’s development at the expense of other provinces are all damaging the very purposes of the CPEC.

The CPEC is a win-win project while fetching a host of opportunities from it. It would not only change fortune of the 208 million Pakistanis but of the 03 billion people. Not only this, the CPEC would make Pakistan an economic and a trade hub. Additionally, it makes 20% of Pakistan’s total GDP and makes Pakistan a high middle income country. Unsurprisingly, it has potential to generate approximately $40 billion annually. Besides, once the early harvested projects are completed by 2020, it would end up Pakistan’s menace energy crisis. According to the Water and Power Ministry, 25000 MWs of energy are identified and possibly 10400 MWs would be added to the system by 2020 whereas, soon after that 6600 MWs would be added to the national grid. Apart from the above mentioned prospects, the CPEC would possibly create 02 million jobs, enhance basic infrastructure, improve people to people contacts, overcome governance crisis, alleviate the menace poverty and unbridled inflation, bring dramatic change in education system and would flourish tourism industry.

In contrast, China is immensely interested in the project because 1) it provides a link to China’s Silk and Maritime initiative connecting Europe, Africa and Asia. Consequently, it would a) save time b) save distance c) reduce logistics cost d) minimise risk management 2) China imports 80% of its energy needs through the Strait of Malacca posing manifold risks due to the changing power paradigms there. Therefore, the CPEC would prove risk-free route 3) the CPEC naturally gives space to China to insert its power in the region.

Albeit, various splendid prospects, the CPEC needs a few fields to be direly worked upon at the earliest in order to reap as much as possible from the CPEC. Firstly, policy makers specially the establishment apparatus must revisit its ‘flawed’ policies. Precisely, policies toward the neighbouring nations more importantly toward East and West neighbours direly need reconsideration. Besides, utter care must be taken in order to tackling with the religious fanatics, insurgents and their patrons. Furthermore, though 12,000 robust forces under the auspices of Special Security Division (SSD) have already been deployed, all unresolved security threats should be addressed at the earliest. Moreover, protection of the workforce in general and of the Chinese workforce is mandatory. Meanwhile, another issue of provincial accusation of diverting the route exit. Despite all the efforts by government the issue is not figured out yet. Thus, for the long term provincial reservations must be addressed. Another factor of strained ties between the government and the military should be solved out. Being a pillar of the state the military can’t be surpassed in important state matters whereas the military should completely abstain itself from the politics and from indulging in areas not in its domain for its own splendour. Most importantly, merely for political gimmicks national consensus should not be compromised and the onus falls on the government to come up with a viable plan for the solution of all the problems.

To sum up, the CPEC is catalyst for property, development, transformation, connection and above all economically empowering 3 billion people. It’s a game changer and it would dramatically mend the lives of the 03 billion people in general and of the 208 million Pakistanis in particular. Besides, it has such a magnificent force behind it that it would shift power and economic paradigms from West to East. The Easterners have long been bearing miseries and the CPEC would end up their miseries.

*Orangzeb Khan is an Islamabad based columnist and teaches current affairs.

China Cracks Down On Overseas Investment – Analysis

0
0

By Michael Lelyveld

As China’s government blocks an increasing amount of outbound investment, it is trying to redirect capital into ventures that further national policy goals.

On Aug. 18, the cabinet-level State Council formalized the curbs on outbound direct investment (ODI) that the government outlined last year, strengthening limits that had been widely ignored.

Last December, government agencies and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) issued warnings to discourage “irrational” investment in foreign real estate, hotels, cinemas, entertainment, and sports clubs. Such deals would be “closely monitored,” the agencies said.

The joint statement on regulation reflected concerns about capital outflows at the start of this year as foreign exchange reserves dropped below the U.S. $3-trillion (19.4- trillion yuan) mark.

The forex reserves have since stabilized, reaching U.S. $3.092 trillion (20 trillion yuan) in August after modest gains for seven months in a row, the PBOC said last week.

But worries have persisted after last year’s ODI jumped 44.1 percent to a record U.S. $170.1 billion (1.1 trillion yuan), while foreign direct investment (FDI) lagged, growing just 4.1 percent to 813.2 billion yuan (U.S. $125.5 billion).

Threats of closer scrutiny apparently succeeded in slowing capital flight as nonfinancial (ODI) dropped 44.3 percent from a year earlier in the first seven months of 2017 to U.S. $57.2 billion (370.6 billion yuan).

Mixed readings of results

But readings of the effectiveness have been mixed.

Last month, the Communist Party-affiliated Global Times reported that the number of outbound merger and acquisition (M&A) deals rose to a record level in the first half of the year, although the value fell by over 50 percent from a year earlier, according to a study by the PricewaterhouseCoopers accounting firm.

The State Council’s newly-formulated rules for foreign investment are classed under three categories, Bloomberg News said.

Outright bans apply to deals involving core military technology, gambling, sex-related businesses, and investment “contrary to national security,” Bloomberg reported.

Undefined restrictions cover deals in property, hotels, film, entertainment, sports, obsolete equipment, and activities that conflict with environmental standards.

The government will encourage investments in the third category, including “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) projects to build trade routes through Asia and Africa, those that enhance China’s technical standards, research and development, oil and mining exploration, agriculture, and fishing, the report said.

The broad effort to steer investment into government priority areas is similar to earlier attempts by regulators to draw insurance companies into supporting official initiatives.

Warnings on risk

In July, Chen Wenhui, vice chairman of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC), warned insurance companies to take precautions against risks, adding that their funds would be “guided to serve national strategies and interests,” the official Xinhua news agency reported.

In May, a CIRC statement encouraged insurers to invest in government-favored public-private partnership (PPP) projects with state-owned enterprises (SOEs) “to boost the economy.”

The agency said the companies could finance PPP ventures with debt, equity, or a combination of both, according to Xinhua.

The CIRC pledged to speed approvals for PPP investments in projects related to OBOR, development of the Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei region, the Yangtze economic belt ,and the Xiongan New Area development in Hebei province to ease Beijing’s congestion.

In July, the Ministry of Commerce also tried to channel investment into “industrial capacity cooperation,” a government-backed plan to trim bloated industries like steel by moving manufacturing abroad.

“Investment in Belt and Road construction, industrial capacity cooperation and industrial upgrading will receive special support,” spokesman Gao Feng said.

Downturn in activity

Insurance companies have been among the biggest investors in foreign property and hotel deals. But tougher regulation of risks, doubts about financing, and questions of ownership appear to have blunted their bids for big foreign deals.

Among the most frequently cited examples of the downturn in ODI activity is last year’s decision by Anbang Insurance Group to cancel its U.S. $14-billion (90.7-billion yuan) bid for the Starwood hotel chain and pricey Manhattan properties after buying New York’s Waldorf Astoria hotel in 2014.

In July, The Wall Street Journal reported that the government had also ordered state banks to cut off financing for more foreign acquisitions by the Dalian Wanda group after it made high-cost investments in the entertainment industry.

Other major overseas investors reportedly facing tighter restrictions this year have included HNA Group and Fosun International.

Controversy has swirled around ownership of fast-growing companies like Anbang, their political connections, and financial resources, but the larger question is where the diverted flow of ODI is going to go.

Based on the official seven-month figures, China’s nonfinancial outbound investment has dropped by about U.S. $45.5 billion (294.7 billion yuan) so far this year.

Risks at home, too

But some domestic investment opportunities have been actively discouraged, as well.

In 2015, the government warned insurers and financial institutions against speculating in stocks after a bubble burst in the Shanghai Stock Exchange, wiping out small investors.

In February, big investors were again put on notice after regulators denounced Foresea Life Insurance and Evergrande Life Insurance as “financial crocodiles” for an attempted takeover of property developer China Vanke Co. through the stock market despite government calls to reduce risks.

The government’s attempts to safely deflate the bubble in housing prices is also likely to make diverted ODI capital unwelcome there.

But by placing more limits on investment, the government may be narrowing access to opportunities with attractive returns.

On July 31, Commerce Vice Minister Qian Keming claimed a measure of success for the government’s policies, noting that OBOR-related outbound investment fell just 3.6 percent in the first half of the year, compared with 42.9 percent for all of China’s ODI.

Investments in foreign property, sports and entertainment plunged by over 80 percent in the first half, the ministry said.

But the milder drop in Belt and Road investment is hardly encouraging for an initiative that has received such intense official promotion.

The figures suggest that investors’ enthusiasm for foreign acquisitions is not easily transferable to the government- sponsored programs. Officials have not addressed the question of relative risks and returns.

Not much difference

Derek Scissors, an Asia economist and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, said the risks of OBOR investment are likely to be greater than those that now face restrictions.

“OBOR investment or construction financing is certainly more risky than Western hotels, holding other features constant,” Scissors said by email.

“The key is those other features, principally whether the money is just being rushed out of the country regardless of return,” he said.

Economically, the diversion of outbound investment is unlikely to make much of a difference, Scissors argued, citing the much larger pool of liquidity represented by the broad measure of money supply, known as M2.

“The amount of excess liquidity sloshing around utterly dwarfs the amount of outbound investment. Diverting (U.S.) $40 billion (259.1 billion yuan) or whatever makes no difference when the stock of broad money M2 is something like (U.S.) $3.5 trillion (22.6 trillion yuan) too large,” he said.

“All of this is a function of monetary overstimulus,” Scissors said. “If you engage in years of far too rapid money creation and then are not willing to suffer the pain of monetary contraction, you play endless games of ‘I’m sure we’ve figured out how to direct capital this time.'”

Regardless of the economic impact of ODI diversion, the new rules are a sign that China retains the characteristics of a command economy even as it gains influence on markets abroad.

The government has yet to demonstrate that its controls on investment have reduced financial risks, while the question of comparable returns remains in doubt.

Rohingya Crisis Demands Action – OpEd

0
0

We live in a world where there is enough wealth and technological innovation to address the worst humanitarian disasters, but what’s lacking is the will to tackle these tragedies with long-term solutions. When there should be concrete efforts to end suffering, increasingly resources are being allocated to fund proxy wars. The Muslim community around the world is circumscribed in a vicious circle of persevering crises, one after the other. Ranging from the Arab Spring to startling radicalism by an alleged Islamic Group in Iraq and protracted conflict in Afghanistan to the barbaric massacre in Syria, and now violence in Myanmar has flared up and is making headlines.

It’s like a big crime in Myanmar to be Muslim. The Rohingyas are a Muslim minority in the northern Rakhine state of Myanmar, which used to be called Burma. According to the UN, Rohingyas are one of the most persecuted minorities on the planet who are being terrorized to wipe out their population. The Myanmar government does not recognize them as citizens and says they are illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. Nay San Lwin, one of the Rohingya’s activists evidently claimed that they have been residing in the Arakan state since the 7th century. Rohingyas are living in apartheid conditions and are often subjected to state-led massacres. Academics and scholars are citing this brutal ethnic cleansing of Rohingya as genocide. Of 1.3 million Rohingya, only 40,000 have citizenship, the rest are considered stateless. A 1982 Citizenship law stated, Rohingyas can become citizens only if they prove their ancestors were in the country prior to 1832, but government-backed militias made this difficult by razing Rohingya villages. The army has been accused of running a brutal campaign of oppression against them.

Rohingyas have also been discriminated against by Buddhist nationalists who think that Rohingya Muslims pose a demographic and cultural threat and fear Islam will take over Myanmar. The nationalist Buddhist campaign “99” spreads hate-speech against minorities in Myanmar. Ashin Wirathu, leader of 969 Nationalist Movement has been quoted as saying, “Muslims are only well-behaved when they are weak, when they become strong, they are like a wolf or Jackal; in large packs they hunt down other animals.”

The conflict between Buddists and Mulims got worse in 2012. Deadly riots broke out in Rakhine state after reports that a Buddhist woman was gangraped by Muslim men. 57 Muslims and 31 Buddhists were killed, leading to a military crackdown on the Rohingya. The military crackdown has led to one of the deadliest bouts of violence to engulf the Rohingya community in decades, forcing 140,000 Rohingya out of their homes. Nearly 400 people have died in fighting that has embroiled Myanmar’s northwestern state for a week.

Walking through the flooded field and crossing mountains, almost 270,000 Rohingya have, so far, fled to Bangladesh, escaping from severe persecution, rape and arson by both the Burmese military and Buddhist militia. The zenith of suppression witnessed Myanmar forces opening fire on Rohingya civilians as they tried to pass through the border to Bangladesh to flee the violence.

Aung San Su Kyi, state counsellor of Myanmar and a controversial figure who leads the Buddhist majority country, has turned a blind eye to the ethnic cleansing of Rohingya Muslims. Su Kyi has refused to acknowledge the plight of the Rohingya and said that the reports are exaggerated and distorted. Disclosing drastic genocide in Myanmar, Phil Robertson, Deputy Asia Director, Human Rights Watch said that the biggest concern is, “Myanmar government is not doing enough to rein in the military and basically take control of the situation”. Bangladeshi hospitals are copiously packed by refugees with diverse and multiple gunshot injuries. Despite of overwhelming human rights violations under her nomenklatura, the Noble Peace Prize winner and daughter of Burma’s founding father Aung San, is still in her spiritless mood.

Fed-up and downtrodden Rohingya want a safe zone and international intervention to ease their torments. The United Nations wants Myanmar to accept the stateless Rohingya Muslims as citizens and customarily considers in the case of Muslims, it’s mellow rhetoric enough to be relieved from this liability. Although the desire to end the Rohingya crisis has been resonated by an assortment of many world leaders from Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak to Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, yet the intensity of the crisis requires synergetic action by almost all the Muslim countries particularly or by the potent international governments to put pressure on the Rohingya’s de-facto regime to control the situation. Although a worldwide campaign demanding to impound Su Kyi’s Noble Peace Prize is underway the solution does not lies in executing this option.

Turkey has gone beyond its means to help the oppressed Rohingya, bestowing thousands of tons of aid and triggering eloquent diplomatic actions to pacify this emergency. However, contemptuous and unaccommodating attitude of the West towards the worst abasement of humanity for the Rohingya puts the intentions of nominating Noble Peace Prize conferment custom at question.

*Yasir Malik, Research Fellow at South Asian Strategic Stability Institute, Islamabad


The Incestuous And Inseparable Relationship Between Sports And Politics – Analysis

0
0

Efforts to clean up international and regional sports governance six years into one of the worst crises in its history have yet to tackle the elephant in the room: the incestuous and inseparable relationship between sports and politics as indicated in Play the Game’s Autonomy Index.

Sports administrators, politicians and government officials uphold the fiction that sports and politics have nothing to do with each other even when just a cursory glance at the facts tells a very different story.

The fundaments of the most recent crisis that erupted with the awarding in 2010 by world soccer body FIFA of World Cup hosting rights to Russia and Qatar is all about politics, the incestuous relationship between administrators and governments, and the fact that political corruption enables financial and performance corruption of sports.

A recently developed index that measures the degree of autonomy from politics enjoyed by national Olympic committees constitutes a first, albeit limited, stab at creating a yardstick to assess the independence of sports governance.

The index, produced by researchers, Mads A. Wickstrom and Stine Alvad, under the auspices of Play the Game, a Danish NGO that advocates greater transparency and democracy in sports, provides insight into the extent of the problem and its geographical distribution.

It also serves as a guide for broader questions underlying Wickstrom and Alvad’s research that cannot be answered statistically. Those questions include whether sports can be independent of politics and if not, whether political interference can be guaranteed in political systems that lack transparency and accountability and do not allow for autonomous civil society organizations and uncontrolled public space.

In effect, the index raises the question whether the Olympic Charter in its current form can guarantee the autonomy of sports without revisions that put flesh on its skeleton by defining more precisely its terms. Articles 27 and 28 of the charter ban national committees from activities that would contradict the charter without defining what that includes and insist on the election of committee members without determining what constitutes a free and fair election.

A clean bill of health?

On the bright side, the index that ranks 205 national Olympic committees, concludes that only 15 percent or 30 panels are directly controlled by governments. With other words, the index gives the vast majority a clean bill of health.

Leaving it at that, would, however, amount to applying the charter of the International Olympic Committee (IOC) selectively, and denying the fact that violators represent autocratic, authoritarian or hybrid forms of government that rank low in terms of political freedoms and in most cases, in terms of lack of corruption. If further evidence of the incestuous relationship of sports and politics was required, the index’s implicit correlation of autonomy of sports and political system provides incontrovertible proof.

The co-relationship between lack of sports autonomy and restricted freedoms is nowhere more obvious than in Asia which, according to the index, has the highest number of politically controlled committees, 16 of the region’s 43. Of the 16, seven are autocratically governed Central, Southeast Asian and East Asian nations. Add to that Southeast Asian nations, including Myanmar and Malaysia, two nations with varying degrees of democracy that are wracked by corruption.

Equally important is the fact that more than a third of the politically controlled committees identified by the index are Middle Eastern, four Gulf autocracies and two hybrids, Iran and Jordan. That number would rise to ten or more than half of all affected Asian committees if Syria and Yemen had been included, two nations wracked by wars, as well as Lebanon where sports is controlled by competing political groups, including the likes of Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shiite militia, and the Saudi-supported Future Movement, and Palestine where sports is dominated by a former security chief and leader of the governing political group who has presidential ambitions.

Problems of political control go beyond national committees

The exemptions reflect the criteria applied by the Play the Game researchers who defined political control as the president and/or secretary general of a committee being either a senior government official or a member of a ruling family in a monarchy. In doing so, they excluded committee functionaries that hold office in governing parties or Central Asian republics like Kazakhstan that are de facto dominated by a family.

The Middle East’s contribution to the high degree of political control in Asia goes beyond numbers and would have become even more evident if the index had been expanded to include international and regional sports associations. A review, for example, of the executive committee of the Asian Football Confederation (AFC), not only demonstrates that the problem of political control goes beyond national committees, but also raises questions about the possible cultural affinity between autocracy and international sports governance and its integrity given members’ potential involvement in abuse of athletes’ basic rights.

Of the 23 members of the AFC’s committee, three, including the group’s president, Sheikh Salman bin Ebrahim Al Khalifa are government officials in line with the index’s criteria, eight others hail from countries in which sports is politically controlled, and one is tainted by corruption charges. Sheikh Salman has never been required to properly account for allegations that he played a role in a crackdown in 2011 in his native Bahrain on athletes and sports executives, some of whom have asserted that they were tortured for participating in peaceful anti-government protests.

A gentleman’s agreement is not enough

IOC president Thomas Bach appeared to set the stage for a more open discussion when in 2014 he broke ranks with the world of sports governance by calling on associations and administrators to acknowledge their ties to politics as well as big business while at the same time ensuring that that they maintain their neutrality.

“In the past, some have said that sport has nothing to do with politics, or they have said that sport has nothing to do with money or business. And this is just an attitude which is wrong and which we cannot afford anymore. We are living in the middle of society and that means that we have to partner up with the politicians who run this world,” Mr. Bach said. He said politicians and business leaders needed to respect the autonomy of sporting bodies or risk diminishing their positive influence.

Mr. Bach’s statement was a first step. However, to ensure the respect he demanded, more will be needed than a gentleman’s agreement or even a tightening of the criteria embedded in the Olympic Charter. Acknowledgment of the inextricable relationship between sports and politics opens the door to development of a set of governing principles and a system of independent oversight. Play the Game’s Autonomy Index could be one pillar of that system.

This article was published at Play The Game, and is reprinted with permission.

Washington: 1 Dead In Spokane High School Shooting

0
0

One person has been killed, and possibly three injured in a shooting at the high school in Freeman, south of Spokane, in the US state of Washington. Ambulances and medical helicopters were called to the scene and area schools were put on lockdown.

“There is one victim, that’s a student, that is deceased,” Spokane Fire Chief Brian Schaeffer told reporters.

The suspect is in custody, the Spokane Spokesman-Review reports.

The Freeman High School has been cleared and secured, the police said. All students were taken to the adjacent sports stadium, where their parents will be able to pick them up.

Motorists have been told to avoid using Highway 27, so ambulances and police could get through, KHQ-TV reported.

Area schools we put on preventive lockdown. The lockdown on other schools was lifted at 11:30 local time (1630 GMT)

Dr. Jeff Collins of the Providence Sacred Heart Medical Center said there were up to six victims, and that two were admitted to the hospital.

Annie Baxter, whose two daughters attend the middle school across the street, told the Spokesman-Review that she heard an alarm sound and saw children running into the school around 10:15 am local time.

The school just had a lockdown drill on Tuesday, Baxter said, so she “thought it was weird because they wouldn’t do (a drill) two days in a row.”

She was told at least one person was shot but is expected to survive.

Juncker Announces Massive Cyber Security Overhaul

0
0

By Catherine Stupp*

(EurActiv) — The European Commission will add funds and new powers for the EU cyber security agency and introduce a range of measures to limit threats from hackers, Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker announced in his annual state of the union speech on Wednesday (13 September).

Cyber security attacks can be “more dangerous to the stability of democracies and economies than guns and tanks,” Juncker said during his address to the European Parliament.

He made a brief reference to the new cyber security proposals during his speech, which lasted more than one hour.

Juncker got to the point by citing the figure of “more than 4,000 ransomware attacks per day” in the last year and said that “80% of European companies experienced at least one cyber security incident” in that period.

Earlier this year, businesses and national cyber security authorities across the EU were shaken by large-scale hacking attacks, like the WannaCry and Petya viruses.

“Cyber attacks know no borders and no one is immune,” Juncker added.

Juncker’s speech was short on details, but shortly after he finished speaking, the Commission published a flurry of legislative documents.

They include a new proposal to overhaul ENISA, the Athens-based EU cyber security agency; a plan to create an EU-wide programme for certifying the security level of software and tech products; and a sweeping long-term cyber security strategy for the bloc.

ENISA’s management staff has fought for years to convince the Commission it needs a budget increase. The agency received around €11 million this year from Brussels and currently employs 84 people. They appear to have finally got what they wanted.

The Commission’s proposal gives the agency a set of new powers: it puts ENISA in charge of a new EU-wide certification scheme and asks it to coordinate between member states’ national authorities when there is a wide-scale cyber security attack.

“We got more than I thought we would. They strengthen our mandate, give us more competences and put us in charge of certification. It’s all positive,” Udo Helmbrecht, ENISA’s director, told EURACTIV.com.

“They give us much more influence,” he added.

The agency plans to add 40 new staff members if its budget increase is approved.

But it’s up to member states to decide how much they want to cooperate in the revamped new system: the Commission is not forcing national cyber security agencies to share more sensitive information with ENISA or with each other.

Cyber security is a touchy area for some EU countries because many do not want to hand over sensitive information about their security vulnerabilities to other member states.

“In the end, it will be a discussion of how much member states want to do on the European level and what do they want to do on the member state level,” Helmbrecht said.

Under the new proposal, ENISA would draft certification rules that will apply to products across the EU. The Commission would pass them through a so-called implementing act, a fast-track process for agreeing EU legislation.

The Commission touts the certification plan as a way to avoid fragmentation and high costs for companies that currently need to have their products approved separately in different EU countries.

One example in the proposal lists the price of certifying the security level of smart meters, which are connected to the internet to measure energy supplies. Germany’s cyber security agency charges more than €1 million to certify smart meters, while companies pay around €150,000 in France and the UK.

Companies can apply for one certification under the new system that will last a maximum of five years and apply all over the bloc. But they will not be required to certify in order to operate in the EU—the scheme is only supposed to help firms avoid expensive application processes in different national systems.

The broad-ranging EU cyber security strategy that was also published on Wednesday suggests a new chain of response for when large-scale hacking attacks hit EU countries. Those include member states’ authorities, ENISA, other EU response offices, which the Commission wants to communicate with each other to limit any damage after breaches.

ENISA will organise regular cyber security exercises to test the new response network.

“The result will be a shift for the EU from a reactive to a proactive approach to protecting European prosperity, society and values, as well as fundamental rights and freedoms, through responding to both existing and future threats,” the strategy reads.

The Commission also asks countries to step up how they respond to criminal attacks from outside the bloc.

As EURACTIV previously reported, the Commission also wants to set up a research centre to work on cyber security threats and response methods.

The Commission will start an in-depth analysis about creating a new centre, known in Brussels jargon as an “impact assessment”, later this year. It could potentially set up the body in 2018.

Artificial ‘Skin’ Gives Robotic Hand Sense Of Touch

0
0

A team of researchers from the University of Houston has reported a breakthrough in stretchable electronics that can serve as an artificial skin, allowing a robotic hand to sense the difference between hot and cold, while also offering advantages for a wide range of biomedical devices.

The work, reported in the journal Science Advances, describes a new mechanism for producing stretchable electronics, a process that relies upon readily available materials and could be scaled up for commercial production.

Cunjiang Yu, Bill D. Cook Assistant Professor of mechanical engineering and lead author for the paper, said the work is the first to create a semiconductor in a rubber composite format, designed to allow the electronic components to retain functionality even after the material is stretched by 50 percent.

The work is the first semiconductor in rubber composite format that enables stretchability without any special mechanical structure, Yu said.

He noted that traditional semiconductors are brittle and using them in otherwise stretchable materials has required a complicated system of mechanical accommodations. That’s both more complex and less stable than the new discovery, as well as more expensive, he said.

“Our strategy has advantages for simple fabrication, scalable manufacturing, high-density integration, large strain tolerance and low cost,” he said.

Yu and the rest of the team – co-authors include first author Hae-Jin Kim, Kyoseung Sim and Anish Thukral, all with the UH Cullen College of Engineering – created the electronic skin and used it to demonstrate that a robotic hand could sense the temperature of hot and iced water in a cup. The skin also was able to interpret computer signals sent to the hand and reproduce the signals as American Sign Language.

“The robotic skin can translate the gesture to readable letters that a person like me can understand and read,” Yu said.

The artificial skin is just one application. Researchers said the discovery of a material that is soft, bendable, stretchable and twistable will impact future development in soft wearable electronics, including health monitors, medical implants and human-machine interfaces.

The stretchable composite semiconductor was prepared by using a silicon-based polymer known as polydimethylsiloxane, or PDMS, and tiny nanowires to create a solution that hardened into a material which used the nanowires to transport electric current.

“We foresee that this strategy of enabling elastomeric semiconductors by percolating semiconductor nanofibrils into a rubber will advance the development of stretchable semiconductors, and … will move forward the advancement of stretchable electronics for a wide range of applications, such as artificial skins, biomedical implants and surgical gloves,” they wrote.

Satellite Imagery Analysis Reveals Economic Decay Within Islamic State

0
0

A new RAND Corporation report paints a bleak picture of economic life under the Islamic State. RAND estimates that the Islamic State contributed to a 23 percent reduction in the GDP of cities under its control, based on novel applications of satellite-derived data.

Over the course of its peak territorial control and decline through mid-2016, the economy of the Islamic State showed clear signs of decay across multiple sectors, including in local markets, electricity, and agriculture. However, the group devoted significant resources to governing its capitals in Raqqa and Mosul. RAND estimates suggest that these cities fared better than most early in the conflict.

The report offers a comprehensive assessment of the ability of the Islamic State to govern the territory and population under its control in Iraq and Syria. The report focuses on the effects of Islamic State control on local economies, because the group is reliant upon local taxation for a significant portion of its revenue and has publicly linked the appeal of its so-called caliphate to perceptions of prosperity.

“The Islamic State’s inability to sustain a large-scale prosperous proto-state represents an institutional failure by the group to capitalize on a vast territory, historically weak governments, potentially sympathetic local populations, and a massive financial war chest,” said Eric Robinson, lead author on the report and a research programmer and analyst at RAND, a nonpartisan research organization.

The group had some success supporting the economies of Raqqa and Mosul early in the conflict, which were to be the heart of the caliphate that the Islamic State hoped to construct. Yet it proved unwilling or unable to support economies in less secure or contested parts of its territory.

While the lack of effective governance in these areas was partly to blame, the report finds that the most consistent factor driving economic decline was the Islamic State’s inability to defend its territory from military opposition.

“Our analysis suggests that it is too simplistic to blame stagnant economic conditions solely on the quality of the Islamic State’s governance. The U.S. and coalition military campaign against the group has been integral to their failure to build prosperous local economies and develop a sustainable caliphate,” said Daniel Egel, an author of the report and economist at RAND.

The report offers an innovative, data-driven approach to solve the problems of measuring economic activity inside areas controlled by the Islamic State. Where traditional data are unavailable to diagnose conditions on the ground from within Islamic State-held cities, the researchers look down upon these cities from space. Using applications of commercial satellite imagery and remote sensing data, the researchers developed clear, quantitative indicators of economic activity within the Islamic State, providing insights into agricultural production, market activity, commercial vehicle traffic, industrial activity, building stock and labor supply.

Furthermore, by documenting the Islamic State’s economic impact throughout Iraq and Syria, this analysis offers critical insights into the stabilization needs of areas liberated from the group.

The researchers also developed an interactive website to help readers visualize economic life as seen from space inside Iraq and Syria.

Viewing all 73339 articles
Browse latest View live




Latest Images