Last week, Stephen Paddock killed 58 people at a country music festival and then shot himself dead in Las Vegas, the gambling-capital in the USA. Since he was a 64-old white American retiree who lived in a retirement community in Mesquite, Nevada, many Americans are highly perturbed by the mere fact that one of their own – apparently of the Christian faith – could do such a monstrous crime, the deadliest mass shooting in modern U.S. history. They ask: how could Paddock, a former postal worker and tax auditor who had become rich through wise real estate investments in downtown Los Angeles, and who liked to gamble in casinos could do such an evil, maximizing casualty?
The media reports suggest that he lived an intensely private, unsocial life that exploded into public view on Sunday, Oct. 1, when he killed and injured so many music lovers. He has become a mystery to them. A nationwide scrutiny on his life has begun that is trying to understand this mysterious mass murderer.
To me, all such scrutiny is to belittle his inexcusable crime.
Las Vegas Police said Paddock had no criminal record. The gunman killed himself before police entered the hotel room from where he was firing, Clark County Sheriff Joseph Lombardo told reporters. “We have no idea what his belief system was,” Lombardo said.
When did one’s belief system become the litmus test to define a murderer and his crime?
No one in the media including the Tweeter-savvy POTUS uttered the T word – terrorism. It was all part of a post-9/11 formula formulated by the government agencies here to define terrorism and terrorists.
“My fellow Americans, we are joined together today in sadness, shock and grief,” the president said in televised remarks from the White House’s Diplomatic Room last Monday. “Last night, a gunman opened fire on a large crowd at a country music concert in Las Vegas, Nevada. He brutally murdered more than 50 people and wounded hundreds more. It was an act of pure evil.”
After meeting with some of the victims of the worst mass shooting in modern American history, President Trump said Wednesday that the shooter was a “very demented person.” “It’s a very sick man. He was a very demented person,” Trump told reporters as he left the University Medical Center, which has cared for dozens of shooting victims.
It was an act of terrorism. But President Trump who has been all agog to condemning terrorist acts by mentally disturbed or radicalized Muslims did not use the term – terrorism – to qualify Paddock’s mass murder. What a double standard by the leader of the free world!
The barrage of gunfire from the 32nd-floor of the Mandalay Bay hotel into a crowd of 22,000 people came in extended bursts that lasted several minutes, sparking panic as throngs of music fans desperately cowered on the open ground, hemmed in by fellow concertgoers, while others at the edge tried to flee.
More than 525 people were injured – some by gunfire or shrapnel, some trampled – in the pandemonium adjacent to the Las Vegas Strip as police scrambled to locate the assailant. As of Saturday, October 7, 2017, 88 injured people are still in the hospital, 31 of whom are in the critical condition.
Federal officials said there was no evidence to link Paddock to militant organizations.
Clark County Sheriff Lombardo said there were 16 firearms in the room where Paddock killed himself, some with scopes and some that appeared to have been modified to convert them to fully automatic weapons. Lombardo said the gunman apparently used a “device similar to a hammer” to smash the windows from which he fired.
Police found at least 18 additional firearms, some explosives and thousands of rounds of ammunition at Paddock’s home in Mesquite, about 90 miles (145 km) northeast of Las Vegas, along with “some electronic devices that we are evaluating at this time,” Lombardo told reporters.
The Las Vegas police believe Paddock may have had a secret life. He had been buying guns since 1982. But something seemed to change last October. He went on a shopping spree, adding to his arsenal until late last month. One of his purchases, a shotgun, came from Dixie Gunworx in St. George, Utah. Chris Michel, the owner, said Mr. Paddock visited the store three times in January and February, making the 40-minute drive from Mesquite, Nevada.
Bottom line: since the shooter was not a Muslim, terrorism is not suspected in America’s deadliest shooting. That is how I see it. If Paddock had been a Muslim or had any link whatsoever with Islam, or ISIS or any Muslim sounding terrorist or militant group, even the murder of a single person would have sealed his identity as a terrorist. Thanks to 9/11, this is the world of double-standards that we live in these days!
In his book, Islamophobia: Understanding Anti-Muslim Racism Through the Experience of Muslim Youth, Naved Bakali notes that a Muslim terrorist dialectic has emerged, reinforcing a narrative that Muslim men are dangerous, violent, and prone to acts of terrorism. This most often occurs when radicalized Muslim individuals engage in random acts of violence, in which civilians are murdered and/or injured. “When these acts of violence occur in North America and Europe,” Bakali writes, “there’s a concerted effort in the media to portray such random ‘lone wolf’ acts of violence as being linked to some global Muslim terrorist infrastructure, and in doing so asserting that Islam is the root cause for these actions. However, deep and detailed analysis, of the possible psychological, emotional, or social states of the perpetrators to help understand these actions, beyond terrorism inspired by Islam, is completely absent.”
It is no accident that the psychological state of mentally troubled psychiatrist (Major) Nidal Hasan who fatally shot 13 people in Fort Hood on November 5, 2009 is not discussed at length in the media. He was a socially isolated person who was stressed by his work with soldiers, and upset about their accounts of warfare. Two days before the shooting, which occurred less than a month before he was due to deploy to Afghanistan against his will.
Interestingly, in April of 2014, when U.S. Army Spc. Ivan Lopez killed three people and wounded 16 in a shooting rampage at Fort Hood, Texas, at the same sprawling Texas Army outpost, despite the strikingly parallel narratives, the media coverage of Lopez and Hasan has been markedly different. Specifically, Lopez, like many other non-Muslims who have used firearms to kill, has been classified as “mentally ill,” while only Hasan has had the label of “terrorism” attached to his story.
Both also sought mental health treatment: Lopez for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after serving four months in Iraq in 2011, and Hasan for his distress as an Army psychiatrist listening to others’ accounts of service in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Consider also the case of 29-year old Omar Mateen, the 2016 Orlando nightclub shooter, who murdered 49 and injured 58 men at a gay nightclub in Orlando, Florida.
Immediately, this was labeled as an act of terrorism. However, mainstream media outlets engaged in very little analysis of why Mateen committed this crime. Mateen was a closeted gay man, who according to friends and family, was ashamed and struggling with his homosexuality. The perception of Mateen being a self-hating, psychologically damaged individual was elusive in media portrayals of the story.
Bakali comments, “Such a narrative, would be essential in trying probe the motivations for his actions. Similarly, in Europe hundreds of young men and women have joined terrorist organizations, and a handful have committed acts of violence and terrorism locally. These events are given widespread media attention and have become instrumental in shaping the political narratives in a number of European nations. There is no shortage of discussions describing what is happening when it comes to Muslims and terrorism, however there is a lack of explanation as to why it is happening. Muslims in a number of these countries are less educated, face higher rates of unemployment, and have been socially and economically marginalized through discrimination and identity politics. However, these issues are rarely discussed when trying to understand the motives of these criminals.”
We must recognize that people who commit acts of violence are complex actors who have a multiplicity of motivations and reasons for committing such acts. Religion may play a role, however, their views cannot be conflated with those of mainstream believers, as their beliefs represent a radical divergence from traditional teachings and beliefs.
When Mr. Trump says that Paddock is just a ‘demented sick’ guy while the U.S. law enforcement agencies “have to look at the mosques” when Mateen committed a similar – albeit a lesser – crime, the POTUS is epitomizing a logical fallacy based on race and religion. It is shameful white-wash!
Trump should face the reality that America has a gigantic gun problem. With 5 percent of the world’s population, the United States has 50 percent of the guns. Every day, some 92 Americans die from guns, and American kids are 14 times as likely to die from guns as children in other developed countries. The U.S. gun homicide rate is 50 times that of Germany and 30 times that of France or Australia, according to the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime, and 12 times higher than the average for other developed countries.
What’s needed is a serious introspection that calls a spade a spade and finds measures that would minimize terrorism or mass shooting. Such may require, among other measures, imposing stricter gun control regulations much like what were imposed to reduce fatality rate per 100,000 miles driven by more than 95% for the automobiles since 1921.
But would the gun lobby allow such regulations to pass in the USA?
As far as Kurdish affairs are concerned, the world’s attention is currently focused on the independence referendum held on September 25, 2017 by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in north-eastern Iraq and that, despite considerable international pressure, there was a 92 percent vote in favour, on a 72 percent turnout. Little attention has been paid to the fact that just three days earlier, another historic Kurdish election took place in neighbouring Syria.
The 5 million Kurds of Iraq represent only a small proportion of their 40 million-strong nation. Most Kurds – some 25 million – live within Turkey’s borders, and nearly 7 million are trapped inside Iran’s extremist Shi’ite regime.
As for the 2 million Kurds in Syria, accounting for 15 percent of the population before the civil war, they had aspired for some time to a degree of autonomy. The internal uprising in 2011 against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad gave them their opportunity. As the civil war inside Syria descended into a maelstrom of at least six separate conflicts, up in the north the Syrian Kurds were battling Islamic State, and successfully winning back swathes of Kurd-inhabited territory.
In the early stages of the Syrian civil war. Syrian government forces withdrew from the Kurdish enclaves, leaving control to local militias. The original three self-governing cantons, namely Afrin Canton, Jazira Canton, and Kobani Canton emerged in 2012, to be joined in 2016 by the autonomous Shahba region as a fourth. Meanwhile the leading political party, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), was establishing the Movement for a Democratic Society (TEV-DEM), a coalition based on the concept of grassroots democracy – a concept virtually revolutionary in the region.
TEV-DEM has been highly successful. In March 2016 it was agreed that the ever-expanding Kurdish area should be ruled under a new federal and democratic constitution. Hediya Yousef and Mansur Selum were elected as joint chairmen of a body established to organise it. The decision to set up a federal government was, Yousef asserted, in large part driven by the expansion of territories captured from Islamic State.
“Now,” he said, “after the liberation of many areas, it requires us to go to a wider and more comprehensive system that can embrace all the developments in the area, that will also give rights to all the groups to represent themselves and to form their own administrations.”
The only political camp fundamentally opposed were Kurdish nationalists, in particular the Kurdish National Council (KNC), which believes in pressing for a nation-state of Kurdistan rather than a polyethnic federation as part of Syria. However, on December 28, 2016, after a meeting of the 151-member Syrian Democratic Council, the new constitution was adopted, Despite objections by the Kurdish nationalist parties, the whole region was renamed the Democratic Federation of Northern Syria. The constitution, known as the “Charter of the Social Contract”, provides for all citizens to enjoy gender equality, freedom of religion and property rights.
As regards a poll of Kurdish opinion, the DFNS took their cue from the KRG’s decision to hold an independence referendum in neighbouring Iraq. They decided to hold their own elections at about the same time. Accordingly a poll was organized in northern Syria on Friday, September 22, 2017, as the first of a three-stage process to strengthen Kurdish regional autonomy in the country.
Voters elected leaders for about 3,700 “communes” spread across the regions of northern Syria where Kurdish groups have established autonomous rule. The first poll will be followed in November by votes for local councils, and the process will culminate in January 2018 with the election of an assembly that will act as a parliament for a federal system of government in northern Syria.
The reaction of the Assad regime has been astonishing – a virtual volte-face.
In August 2017 Faisal Mekdad, Syria’s deputy foreign minister, labelled the elections a joke. “Syria will never ever allow any part of its territory to be separated,” he said.
But on September 26, according to SANA, the Syrian state news agency, Walid Muallem, Syria’s foreign minister, said that his country was open to the idea of greater powers for the country’s Kurds. They ”want a form of autonomy within the framework of the borders of the state,” he said. “This is negotiable and can be the subject of dialogue.” He indicated that discussion could begin “once the military campaign of President Bashar al-Assad’s government against the Islamic State group operating in Syria is over.”
This acceptance on the part of the Syrian government is likely to be anathema to Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Syria’s Kurds may not be seeking independence, but the degree of autonomy they seem likely to attain can only reinforce the Kurds in Turkey in their separatist demands. Nor is Erdogan likely to find much external help in opposing the activities of the DFNS. The Syrian Kurds currently enjoy the support of both the US and Russia in the anti-IS struggle, and these two key permanent members of the UN Security Council seem willing to contemplate Kurdish autonomy within a unified post-war Syria.
The worst scenario, from Erdogan’s point of view, would be if something like Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan were to be established in Syria, and then amalgamate or federate with Iraq’s KRG. In that eventuality, demands by Turkey’s Kurds to be linked to it in some way might become irresistible.
(RFE/RL) — U.S. President Donald Trump and Senator Bob Corker exchanged insults on Twitter, with Trump blaming his fellow Republican and onetime ally for the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.
“Senator Bob Corker ‘begged’ me to endorse him for re-election in Tennessee. I said “NO” and he dropped out (said he could not win without my endorsement),” Trump wrote on Twitter on October 8 in the attack on a senior member of his own party.
“He also wanted to be Secretary of State, I said “NO THANKS.” He is also largely responsible for the horrendous Iran Deal!”
Trump followed that up later in the day with: “Bob Corker gave us the Iran Deal, & that’s about it. We need HealthCare, we need Tax Cuts/Reform, we need people that can get the job done!”
Trump has repeatedly denounced the landmark 2015 nuclear deal signed under his predecessor, Barack Obama, telling the UN General Assembly last month that it is “one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into.”
Under the deal, Tehran agreed to curtail its nuclear activities in exchange for relief from international sanctions.
Trump is expected to soon announce a plan to decertify the agreement with Tehran, putting the fate of the accord into the hands of Congress, where Corker — as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee— would play a key role in deciding the outcome.
In the past, Corker has said he considers the deal flawed, but he has expressed opposition to scrapping the agreement altogether.
The 65-year-old Corker, a Tennessee senator, has announced he will not seek reelection in 2018. He was formerly close to Trump, having served as a national security adviser during the 2016 presidential campaign and was considered as a potential vice presidential running mate or as secretary of state.
In response to Trump’s tweets, Corker on October 8 wrote: “It’s a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning.”
Since announcing his plans to retire from the Senate, Croker has stepped up his criticism of Trump.
Asked last week about reported tensions between Trump and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Corker responded by describing Tillerson, Secretary of Defense James Mattis, and White House Chief of Staff John Kelly as “those people that help separate our country from chaos.”
Corker previously said, “The president has not yet been able to demonstrate the stability, nor some of the competence, that he needs to demonstrate in order to be successful.”
Kumari, literally translating to a ‘pre-pubescent virgin’, is also the name of the living goddess in Nepal chosen at a very young age. They belong to the Shakya caste of the Newars, the same caste Buddha was believed to have hailed from.
It is believed that Taleju, a Hindu demigoddess, resides in the body of the Kumari but any form of heavy blood loss or serious illness would mean the exit of the deity. The Buddhists believe the Kumari to be the manifestation of Vajradevi. A Kumari is chosen by a group of priests, and has to live through her tenure in red and golden clothes and perform various rituals. The tenure gets over upon her first menstruation.
It begins with a search for the new Kumari for which they look for a girl without physical ‘flaws’, for instance, the girl must not have had a single wound on her body. Additionally, she must bear ‘chest of a lion’ and ‘thighs of a deer’ and meet many, many more criteria. After this, they are made to witness animal slaughter and kept in presence of dancing masked men. The Kumari must not flinch at all, even when later she has to spend a night in a room full of dead animals after the sacrifice made earlier the same day. Lastly, she has to choose among various objects, the one belonging to the preceding Kumari. Having cleared all these ‘tests’, she will be chosen.
While the idea of living as a Goddess is very fascinating to some, the truth is that after their tenure they are made to go back and reintegrate with the society they have no contact with whatsoever. This transition from a Goddess worshipped by so many people to being one of them is not easy. For a little girl of three years to live in one confined building and to talk to only a few number of people, it is very difficult to start to mingle with the society later on.
Earlier, during the monarchy period, the Kumari was venerated and worshipped by the Royal family. The kings received blessings from the Kumari every year and it guaranteed their reign for the said year. This is partly because the horoscope of the Kumari was aligned with that of the king so that no harm or conflicts would be caused to the king. This faith and belief from the royal palace translates to a much better lifestyle then in comparison to now. Now, they receive a meagre monthly income of $50 in Kathmandu and as little as $17 in other cities of Lalitpur and Bhaktapur from the government. More importantly, the family of the Kumari also becomes her caretakers meaning the parents have to tend to her full time and they often leave their day jobs in the process. This means that the entire family is supported by one little girl who receives barely any money from the government.
The Kumaris in the past were not given any education because as representations of a deity they were considered to be omniscient. However, with time this has evolved and the Kumaris do receive education from private tutors but this has a direct bearing on the quality of education received. This is because other people, including her tutors, cannot offend or upset her and have to agree to what she says. She cannot communicate with them directly. She cannot touch them. Moreover, this is an equivalent of being home-schooled and going to a normal school in the latter half of her life is very difficult.
A petition was filed in the Supreme Court in 2008, stating that the practice of Kumari was an ‘institutionalised form of discrimination against girl children’, depriving them of their constitutional rights. However, the counter arguments persisted that the members of the Newar community see this as a traditional practice and do not believe this to hurt the child. They further argue that it is a matter of prestige for the said family, and the child is seen as a divine being and is on a higher pedestal as compared to other people and not disadvantaged. Because every community is guaranteed to practice their traditions freely and without question, people from outside the community should not comment on their practices. However, this is objectionable because there are communities in Nepal also involved in other practices like dowry, child marriage, chhaupadi (menstruating women kept in cow sheds), but these have been brought under control via interference by the state and other people.
The Court never decided on this issue and passed the burden on other committees. However, as a token of culture, tradition, and tourist attraction, a 3-year-old was instated as the Kumari on September 28, 2017, after rigorously checking her for ‘flaws’. She will now be permitted to leave the 15th century temple she will reside in only about 13 times a year, and that too on official occasions. Moreover, her feet are to never touch the ground when she is out of her residence and she will be carried around. She is also not permitted to befriend other people except those approved because of the strict rituals she has to follow as an impersonation of a deity, such as isolation, not being allowed to talk to people, touch them, or step outside her residence. She has caretakers who cater to all her needs but apart from that she will be allowed minimal human interaction. This process is undergone by young girls of 3 years old and sometimes lesser who have very little say in this process just because it is a matter of pride and honour for their families. Her father, filled with mixed emotions claimed to be enthralled to welcome a goddess. She changed into a deity overnight. If this is not deprivation of a normal childhood, then what is?
About the author:
* Aditi Aryalis a student of Social Science and writes about social and developmental issues pertaining to exclusion, inequalities, and gender disparities in the South Asian context.
The year 2017 marks not only 100 years since the victory of the Russian Revolution but also, and perhaps more importantly (at least for those who believe that the fall of the Soviet Union took away the historical meaning of the October 1917 events), 100 years of failure and lost opportunities concerning America’s Russian foreign policy.
Besides a few disputes and some apprehension and mistrust (for instance, when America strongly condemned Tsarist Russia’s harsh treatment of political prisoners in Siberia and its Jewish population), American-Russian relations until 1917 had been fundamentally friendly. In the early 1800s, Russia acknowledged America’s strategic interest in becoming the sole power in North America while it focused on its own imperial goals along the Amur River. Russia gracefully acknowledged its no-win position in Alaska and decided to sell it to America rather than accelerate an otherwise inevitable military conflict. More significantly, Russia saw in the U.S. an emerging power capable of helping counteract Japan’s ambitions in Manchuria, as well as the not less important aims of Britain and France. Russia’s foreign policy toward Japan during the last Tsarist period did not change with the Soviets triumph, as Lenin became anxious to side with America to contain and hopefully defeat Japan’s growing expansionism.
While America’s decisive opposition to the Revolution from early days is well known, it is less evident how U.S. government policy-makers spurned the better intentions of a few U.S. political actors (such as Raymond Robins and Senator William Borah) who, despite their equal aversion to Bolshevism, nevertheless saw the emergence of the Soviet state as a unique opportunity to foster cooperation between both nations through mutually beneficial economic exchange. In 1917, the U.S. had a golden opportunity to play a long-term influential role in Russia, but repeatedly ignored the Bolsheviks’ friendly overtures (which, of course, were motivated by the dire domestic situation in the aftermath of the Revolution). There are numerous examples of Russia’s conciliatory moves, including its receptivity (suggested by Robins and agreed by Trotsky) to press Germany to commit not to move its Eastern front troops to the West (a critical matter for the Allies during the last part of World War I), as key condition to achieve peace in Brest-Litovsk. More dramatically, Lenin agreed to exclude prominent U.S. companies (Westinghouse, International Harvester, and Singer) from Soviet nationalization laws affecting industry.
The shock from the Russian Revolution prompted the U.S. and its entente allies to contain or, even better, to attempt the liquidation of Soviet power. There was a comprehensible fear that the Revolution would spread to Western Europe and even to the U.S. as President Woodrow Wilson candidly admitted. However, while the Bolshevik leaders were stridently preaching world revolution, America failed to understand that the Soviets’ primary objective was just to survive. The communists’ goal was never compromised, even at the height of revolutionary enthusiasm during Russia’s unsuccessful invasion of Poland in 1920.
Anti-Russian US policies somehow lessened during the years following the Revolution, particularly at the time of the Great Depression. During those days, the sporadic economic exchange between both nations jumped to significant levels, but eventually Russia’s growing economic importance and its potential for American credit and further exports was sacrificed to fear.
The absence of Soviet delegates during the Versailles peace discussions at the end of World War I, as they were not invited by the Allies (with U.S. acquiescence), prevented a comprehensive and long-lasting peace framework in the world. With good reason, some historians place this absence among one of the factors that led to World War II. America’s deaf ears to Russia’s pleas against Japan’s and, later on, Germany’s militarism should also be added to this ominous list.
In 2017, Russophobia is back. American foreign policy is led mainly by a firm perception of Russia as a land-grabbing country. Russia’s appeals for further cooperation to fight international terrorism and even to partner diplomatically in North Korea (challenges not less significant today than what Japan and Nazi Germany meant to the world in the 30s) are being ignored. Nobody expects Russia to be congratulated if in fact it attempted to manipulate the most recent American presidential elections, but perhaps such alleged behavior should be put in the context of America’s numerous attempts to overthrow the Bolsheviks, including its material support to the Russian Civil War rebels. The U.S., for instance, heavily supported Admiral Kolchak, a reactionary leader unlikely to have represented America’s avowed democratic ideals. America’s aggressive aims were ultimately defeated by cold facts: growing U.S. weariness to further armed intervention and the lack of support in inner Russia for the counter-revolution ultimately caused the pullout of the American occupation troops in Siberia.
America’s current policies sadly follow a recurrent old pattern. As in 1917, there is a lack of understanding of deep social forces driving world events. American foreign policy never saw through the causes of the Russian Revolution, its real impact nor its long-term prospects of survival. American policy-makers were initially convinced that the Revolution would last weeks or, at most, a few months. Initial reactions at that time tell a lot about American leaders’ perception of the Revolution and even of democracy. ‘A power grab by an ignorant mob’ and ‘the Russian workers and peasants do not understand their place in society,’ were common expressions from leading politicians.
Trying to explain the deeper reasons for America’s policy in Russia is a matter different from highlighting a few historical comparisons. On the latter, some would argue that there is nothing to learn from history as, arguably, events never repeat themselves. While this may be the case, if there is a reason why history is relevant it’s because, ultimately, decision-making seems to be deeply driven by human nature. From this point of view and, as long as our basic biological traits do not change, there is no much difference between 1917 and 2017.
The opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints expressed by the authors are theirs alone and don’t reflect any official position of Geopoliticalmonitor.com, where this article was published.
The €222 million transfer of Neymar to PSG calls into question whether football superstars are a good investment. Using the financial details of the transfer, this column argues that, at the price paid, Neymar has a negative net present value. While there are other explanations for PSG’s willingness to pay, in purely economic terms his contract seems a bad investment. Policymakers might use this type of calculation to justify intervening in the transfer market through regulation and taxation.
By Eran Yashiv*
Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior was transferred from Barcelona to Paris Saint Germain (PSG) for €222 million, on 3 August 2017. It has caused many of us to consider whether football players are a good investment, and question how their prices can be justified.
To approach this issue from a serious economic perspective one needs to reflect on the more general question: what is the relation between the stock market value of the firm, and the value of its workers? In the modern economy, we assume that firm value – for example, Facebook’s $500 billion valuation – is generated by the human capital of its workers, their knowledge and skills. Only a tiny part comes, from the value of its buildings, PCs, laptops, Xerox machines, and other capital stocks (Yashiv 2005, Merz and Yashiv 2007). One can think of this worker value as some kind of implicit ‘human capital stock price’. The firm’s stock price will then be a function of the workers’ stock prices. These prices are not the wages the workers get, but rather their worth to the firm (Rosen 1981).
This idea may seem abstract. Workers do not really carry a stock price. But there is one prominent industry in which we do find such prices: football. We can consider football players as assets, and so the price of buying a footballer is a stock. The recent transfer of Neymar involved a huge stock price, and so is a particularly prominent example of this concept.
The Neymar transfer caused bewilderment and anger and raised many questions, mostly ethical. But we can also look at it from an economic perspective, before returning at the end to moral issues.
The scale of the Neymar investment
Consider Neymar as an investment project. The firm (PSG) decides to make an investment in a worker (Neymar). It does so by paying his value to the incumbent owner (Barcelona). The firm has to make this decision, as it would do for other investment projects, such as building a stadium. The firm needs to determine what it gains and what it spends when hiring the worker. While Neymars and stadiums are big investments, any hiring of a worker may be analysed with a the same logic.
The unusual aspect of this kind of decision is that there is a market price, which is well known. In most cases in the labour market we have no such information, as workers are not bought and sold. The only other prominent case in which prices are known is human slavery. (The analogy was not lost on some commentators.)
What are the financial facts of this €222 million investment project? Neymar’s price represents almost 5% of the total revenues of the Premier League, the national league with the highest revenues. (We can think of it as 5% of the GDP of English football’s elite division.) Now 25, he has signed a five-year contract. His annual salary is reported to be around €30 million after tax, or around €45 million Euros before tax. PSG also paid agent commissions of €38 million (Economist 2017).
In 2016 PSG has had revenues of more than €521 million, and €296 million of that came from commercial sales (Deloitte 2017). At the time it was acquired by Qatar Sports Investments in 2011, the club’s annual revenues were only €100 million, so they have risen five-fold in six years.
Potential gains and costs for PSG are hard to quantify. Even if he did not play, Neymar would boost commercial revenues for PSG. If, as expected, he contributed to footballing success, this may lead to PSG playing more games, raising match-day revenues, and winning more trophies, raising commercial revenues. Both increase TV revenues. But the financial contribution is difficult to measure precisely. There are also hazards. Neymar might get injured, or his form might decline, or the team (even with him in it) might not play well.
The net present value of Neymar
We can ask what sum Neymar needs to generate to make this investment profitable by plugging the known numbers into a net present value (NPV) equation and computing break-even. At this point, Neymar would not yield profit or cause a loss to PSG. A caveat: all the numbers are hard to confirm, but this computation can give a rough idea.
In the baseline computation, on the one side, the sum paid, which is €222 million. On the other side is the sum of expected annual profits, revenues less wages, discounted, over his five-year contract. Using a 1% real discount rate and a 30% corporate tax rate, with 0% risk for injury, and making the revenue to be generated by Neymar as the unknown to be solved for, we can calculate the break-even point.
Under this baseline scenario, Neymar would need to generate €111 million a year for PSG to make zero profits. If the tax rate plus risk of injury rises from 30% to 50%, a more realistic case considering other payments and injury risks, and if we add the commission to the sum paid, this number jumps to €151 million a year. These figures are 38% and 52%, respectively, of the 2016 commercial revenues of the club.
It is highly unlikely that the Neymar deal will yield these numbers. Thus, PSG stands to lose.
One option would have been to offer Neymar a lower wage, but the wage is not the most important factor here. Halving his wage would require him to generate €92 million a year to break even, and even cutting his reported wage by three-quarters would require him to generate €80 million annually for PSG. These are formidable (and unrealistic) amounts.
This means that PSG has been prepared to pay more than Neymar’s expected economic value. One can think of it as a kind of bubble, though stock market bubbles usually arise in other ways, and in different circumstances.
The 2009 transfer of Cristiano Ronaldo makes much more economic sense. Here, again, the numbers are unconfirmed. Ronaldo was reportedly bought by Real Madrid from Manchester United for €94 million. For four years he earned about €11 million a year after tax, and subsequently earned close to €20 million a year after tax.
Plugging in these numbers in the baseline computation, and considering pre-tax wages, Ronaldo needed to generate about €40 million a year for Real Madrid to break even. This is equivalent to about 20% of Real’s commercial revenues at the time, or less than 10% its total revenues. It is probable that Real profited from this investment.
So not all transfers are bubbles. But looking at the top transfers by value, from Neymar’s move to Kevin de Bruyne’s €75 million move from Wolfsburg to Manchester City in 2015, it looks like the majority are bubbles. That means that the price paid was not subsequently justified by the net gains accruing to the purchasing club. Even at the time of purchase, this could have been expected. Why, then, are these trades done?
There are several hard-to-refute hypotheses. One is that club owners consume players, rather than investing in them. They want star players to perform for them. Another is that they are miscalculating, expecting bigger gains and larger positive externalities than realised ones. A third is that it is a psychologically-motivated competition.
Social implications of Neymar’s transfer
This has wider social implications. How ‘justified’ are these wages and values? They signify enormous inequality. This phenomenon demonstrates the pitfalls of the free market. Demand and supply, unregulated by wage or price caps, or by entry barriers, generates these high numbers when the popularity of football meets greed. There is no free-market mechanism to divert these resources into socially valuable projects. Moreover, it looks like rational economic computations would not prevent such outcomes. Only policymakers, empowered by the public, could intervene through regulation and taxation. They could potentially put the resources spent on football’s future Neymars to better social use.
About the author:
* Eran Yashiv, Faculty member of the Eitan Berglas School of Economics, Tel Aviv University
References:
Deloitte (2017), Football Money League.
The Islamic Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization –ISESCO- has spared no effort, since its inception in 1982, in Morocco, by a decision of the Third Islamic Conference, held in Makkah Al-Mukarramah and Taef in Saudi Arabia in January 1981, to improve education in the Muslim world in its content, approach, philosophy and output and to set up strategies for generalizing access to school and offering the least privileged members of society the possibility to get the necessary education, in the best possible conditions.i
It must be said at the outset, that the Islamic Organization has put emphasis on quality of education in its action and activities in the Muslim world because education has always been, since the emergence of Muslim civilization, one of its cornerstones, if not the most important one.ii
The importance of knowledge acquisition and education in the Muslim religion is stressed in various verses of the Koran by Allah. For Him those who hold knowledge occupy an important rank within the Muslim society and in His eyes they are far superior in rank and importance than those who do not, because knowledge and education call for respect and awe:
O ye who believe! When you are told to make room in the assemblies, (spread out and) make room: (ample) room, Allah will provide for you. And when you are told to rise up, rise up: Allah will rise up to (suitable) ranks (and degrees), those of you who believe and who have been granted knowledge. And all is well-acquainted with all ye do.
(Sura 58 – 11) iii
And this is not all, because Allah holds the people of knowledge in much respect and in high esteem and for Him those who show education cannot be placed on the same level as those who do not:
Is one who worships devoutly during the hours of the night prostrating himself or standing (in adoration), who takes heed of the Hereafter, and who places his hope in the mercy of his Lord, (like one how does not)? Say: “Are those equal, those who know and those who do not know? It is those who are endued with understanding that receive admonition.
(Sura 29 – 9) iv
For the ulema (the Guardians of Knowledge), who have a true knowledge of the might of the Creator, Allah the Almighty, fear His might and power and show this fear in their adoration of Him.
Because of the respect that Allah has expressed for the ulema (the Guardians of Knowledge), they were later to play a central role in the development of Islam and its propagation throughout. They acted as the keepers of the Islamic orthodoxy and the instigators of reforms and political dialogue. They have always been and still are respected by political leaders for their knowledge and wisdom. They were often called upon, in dire times, to make political decisions and lead the nation of Islam through crisis and doubt to the safe shore of welfare and true faith. Because of their ability to rally the masses and to find remedies to social, economic and political crises, they were known as:
أهل الحل والعقد
“Those who untie knots and make them”, i.e. those who can decide the future of the people and the nation.
From the very beginning, Islam emphasized in no doubtful terms the importance of knowledge, education and literacy and ranked them as important features of الإيمان al-imane (faith). A true faithful is a person who can read and write, a person who can contribute to the development of his country and its advancement with his knowledge and education, a person who can encourage knowledge and education within society for its betterment.
Indeed, Islam was associated with knowledge and education and learning from the very beginning. The Koran was revealed to the would-be messenger Muhammad, in the grotto of Hira, where he used to retreat for meditation and introspection, by the Angel Gabriel. During their first encounter the Angel Gabriel ordered Muhammad, in no doubtful terms, to “read”, the latter trembling with fear replied “I cannot read” and the Angel repeated the order twice and thrice before the Prophet started reading:
1. Proclaim (or Read) in the name of Thy Lord and Cherisher, Who created,
2. Created man, out of a mere clot of congealed blood:
3. Proclaim and Thy Lord is Most Bountiful,
4. He Who taught (the use of) the Pen,
5. Taught man that which he knew not.
6. Nay, but man doth transgress all bounds,
7. In that he looketh upon himself as self-sufficient.
8. Verify, to thy Lord is the return (of all).
(Sura 96 – 1 – 8) v
Later when the Prophet Muhammad was established in his prophet hood, he emphasized the importance of knowledge and education in the life of believers and encouraged his followers to seek them actively.
As a result of these religious injunctions, education became an important duty of the pious Muslim and this interest led gradually to the inception of Islamic education and its development in various part of the Muslim world. But Islamic education was not an education dealing exclusively with religion, it dealt, also, with all aspects of knowledge both spiritual and temporal, with an emphasis on quality.
Thus, under Islamic education, students would receive instruction in the following areas:
Religious education: Koran – hadith – sira – Fiqh
Islamic thinking – Principles of Islam;
Practical / vocational education: apprenticeship in various professional guilds: carpentry, ironwork, goldsmith’s trade, leatherwork, copper work, etc…
The practical aim of this type of education was to train students to get religious instruction of quality, but also other forms of knowledge, and most importantly training in some sort of skill with a view of getting a job for a decent living.
In the early days of Islamic education, the tendency was towards encyclopaedic knowledge, whereby students learned religious topics in addition to subjects dealing with worldly matters, and as a result they became encyclopaedic learners or savants such as Avicenna, Averroes, Ibn Nafis, etc… and many others known in Arabic language and history as ulema mawsu’iyyun (encyclopaedic scholars), who devoted their entire life to mastering various topics in spiritual and worldly education. vi
Islamic Education has always occupied a prominent place in the educational system of the Muslim countries, even if today it has been supplanted in many areas by secular education. It is traditionally offered through three levels, with emphasis on quality:
Primary education: kuttab
Secondary education: medersa
Higher education: jâmi’a or ma’had vii
Islamic education is not only concerned with teaching religious topics, it also deals with teaching concepts of tolerance tasâmuh and concepts of peaceful coexistence ta’âyush silmi, as well as concepts of dialogue hiwâr, with people from other religions known in Islam as ahl al-kitab.
In this respect, Aisha Lemu, responsible of Islamic education curriculum in Nigeria viii, says on this particular subject:
We … gave much more time to issues such as the rights of women in Islam, the rights and duties of the husband and wife, and the moral teachings of Islam. We gave less to historical details of battles and dynasties and more to the civilizational values of Islam, as well as its impact on West Africa…
She goes on saying: ix
With regard to the relationship between, Islam and other religions, or between Muslims and non-Muslims, these are not treated as a separate topic. However, under Tawhid (literally the Oneness of God) the matter of unity, trinity or multiplicity of Gods / gods is taught. The rights of “the People of the book” to retain and practice their religions within an Islamic polity is also covered.
Though Turkey is constitutionally a secular state, yet it has made room in its educational system for Islamic education. According to Recep Laymackan: x
The subject does not aim at conversion, nurturing the pupils in a particular religion or denomination, or making the pupil more religious. Rather its intention is to provide general knowledge, mainly of Islam and other world religions and ethical issues. It also aims at promoting religious understanding and tolerance. This means that the subject also includes citizenship issues.
Quality Education, A Cornerstone Of Muslim Civilization
Since the emergence of Muslim civilization, education has always been one of the primal targets of social action and one of the main objectives of cultural solidarity of the Muslim ummah. This is so because education is sanctified both in the Holy Koran, in the doings of the Prophet Muhammad sira and in his sayings hadith in which he stated to his congregation:
I have been sent as a teacher
And as such Muslim societies became societies with high interest in acquiring knowledge and in passing it to the next generations. And the holders of knowledge were not only respected but to a certain extent venerated and called ustad, and the term “ustad” is considered to be one of the highest attributes you can add to the name of a given person because it means “teacher”, and teaching in Islam is one of noblest professions a faithful can aspire to occupy in his lifetime.
Not only the Prophet Muhammad was sent as a teacher to humanity but his mission was, also, providing quality education to everyone:
I was dispatched to humanity to teach noble values
The Muslim societies thus became societies for teaching and learning and preserved this particular specificity throughout history.
During the period of the Scramble for Africa xi, while fighting colonialism and in resisting its attempts to obliterate the Islamic identity of society, African Muslim people were particularly keen to preserve their educational pattern represented by the Arab-Islamic schools, which were widespread particularly in the sub-Saharan African countries. Likewise, considerable efforts were made to preserve the cultural heritage of these people, either as written in Arabic or as written in their national languages that were, then, transcribed in Koranic script.xii
Unfortunately, however, the very specificities which have for a long time, characterized education in the Islamic countries, have over the last few years been put on the back burner, either intentionally or not. This is particularly obvious in the failure to link education with training and qualification for employment or with opportunities in Arab-Islamic schools, a state of affairs that discourages parents from sending their children to these schools.
ISESCO, in its drive to consolidate this type of education in Africa, has in the last decade backed up the efforts of countries to safeguard the specificities of Islamic education by helping improve performance in Arab-Islamic schools and by consolidating the link between this type of education and the needs of the employment market.
ISESCO is, however, fully conscious of the problems that it faces in its efforts to cause rapid reconstruction and development of education in Africa. The quality of education has been seriously eroded at all levels due to depredations of war, civil strife and the consequent economic decline during the last two decades. Schools are ill-equipped, instructional materials are in short supply, teachers are poorly remunerated and demoralized, and many of them are unqualified. Literacy is still at an unacceptable low level. On the other hand, most of the curricula in educational institutions are not designed to equip the youth with productive skills.
Worse still, there are all kinds of imbalances in the distribution of educational facilities between urban and rural areas, between different regions and ethnic or nationality groups, between boys and girls and between the rich and the poor. For instance, it is mostly those who are socially better off who derive the benefits of free education, while many poor parents cannot provide even primary education to their children because of its ever rising prohibitive cost.
Literacy Strategies
History will always remember the chapter in the biography of the Prophet Muhammad, where he ordered the release of prisoners of war on the condition that each of them teaches ten young Muslims how to write and read. Such wisdom was the fastest organized effort in the history of Islam to erase xiiiilliteracy.
Umaru Musa Yar’adua University (UMYU) Katsina, Nigeria
Throughout history and to date, the level of literacy has been closely linked to the level of social development. Lately, the level of literacy in a country has become one of the main criteria used to gauge the standard of human development among countries.
Unfortunately, the rate of illiteracy in some African countries ranks among the highest in the world. This stands as a great obstacle to the march of global progress in those countries. While developed countries debate the need for erasing computer and technological illiteracy, many Islamic countries still battle with alphabetical literacy.
Despite of the efforts made by most African Islamic countries, some of them have failed to make much progress in ridding their populations from the plague of illiteracy. This failure is due to the absence of strategies, the inadequacy of planning, the lack of qualified human resources, meagre finances, the focus of interest on formal education with adult education and literacy at a disadvantage, and many other factors. The same scenario applies to the education of groups with special needs to which African Muslim countries grant very little importance, and sometimes completely omit to provide suitable educational alternatives to these groups.
Catching up with the rest of the world requires not only that illiteracy be totally eradicated but that substantial progress be made in science and technology and that equal rights to education be granted to all social groups whatever their means and capacities may be.
The Islamic Organization has, since its inception, exerted a lot of effort in the promotion of literacy through its consecutive plans and the elaboration of the Special Islamic Programme for Illiteracy and Basic Education, a program that was designed in such a way as to be financed outside of the budget. But, through the said program was approved by the General Conference of ISESCO in its extraordinary session (Jomtien 1990), financing remained a stumbling block to its implementation.
Setting out a whole field of action devoted to illiteracy in the Action Plan of ISESCO for 2001-2003, has come as a response to the recommendations of the General Conference and the Executive Council in their respective meetings, to the effect that illiteracy programs be given top priority in view of the high rate of illiteracy in many Islamic countries. This need was made all the more acute by the results of the study carried out by the Organization within the framework of its triennial plan 1998-2000, on the Status of Illiteracy in Muslim Countries which revealed the needs of Member States in financial and technical assistance if they were to contain this plague.
In this respect, the Islamic Organization has assisted African countries in the planning and implementation of comprehensive literacy programs and by encouraging the use of national languages transcribed in koranic script in these programs, as this has proved quite an impetus for people joining literacy programs.
On TOSTAN’s xiv non-formal basic education program in national languages in Senegal, Cynthia Guttman echoes the difficulties faced: xv
“The government has recognized that literacy programmes work best when conducted in national languages, but fight against illiteracy has been plagued by a severe lack of resources and poor coordination. No basic education programme in national languages existed in Senegal in 1987. At central government level, responsibility for literacy has been often tossed around between ministries. The absence of a well thought out national strategy, poor training of literacy practitioners and too few educational materials have meant ad hoc interventions with little supervision or follow-up. Poor planning is also due to lack of precise literacy figures.”
But, however, she reports that the situation is improving gradually in this country as the result of a determined political will to face up to the challenges of illiteracy: xvi
“But things are changing. A ministry for literacy and the promotion of national languages was created in 1991. One of the results of the ministry’s policy is to decentralize operations and develop partnerships with non-governmental and community organizations. To this end, a national committee was set up to enhance concentration, promote action-research, further the exchange of experiences to build capacity, and improve data collection.
Viable Education
Muslim primary school in South Africa
The last two decades have witnessed successive changes in various fields of human activity. In the educational field, many innovations were adopted including two trends towards ensuring education for all and dispensing a viable education. The first trend benefited from a huge campaign of media exposure and an intensification of educational activity, as a result of the Jomtien Conference, where ideas such as the global view of education and providing basic education were largely debated. Other catalysts were the recent World Declaration on Education for All,xvii and the implementation and follow up mechanisms at the regional and international scales. Many Islamic countries have made great efforts and still preserve in their praiseworthy endeavours in this field.
The second trend, however, did not benefit from the same interest and, in fact, sometimes completely failed to attract attention in spite of its paramount importance in bringing about a more efficient performance of educational institutions and consequently social development. Starting from the principal that quantity is not the only criteria of good education, but that the need is strong for as good a quality of education as possible. A weak educational output is a stumbling block for human development. It dampens the urge to seek further knowledge, reduces outlets and is a waste of resources.
Useful education can be provided by enhancing the quality of schooling. Playing a role in this are factors such as: lengthening the period of education, providing incentives to teachers and students, planning for good results, learning to achieve perfection, good planning of courses, providing an orderly learning environment, ensuring variety of topics taught, cooperative education, computer and technology- assisted education, and involving the parents in the educational process.
Action in this area consisted of calling upon African countries, to bestow as much interest on the quality of instruction as on the generalization of education and literacy, and to take stock of the blatant inadequacy of the internal and external performance of education in many African countries.
Action in this field, also, enabled African Member States to improve the standard of their educational performances at pre-university levels and institutions, to ensure a useful and viable education and complement the increase in education activity quantity wise with quality and good academic achievement.
Achieving Development Through Quality Education
During the twentieth century, the world has witnessed tremendous changes at various levels. These changes have had diverse impact on human being, on society and on environment at the same time. Some of these transmutations were positive such as the incredible leap in scientific and technological fields like medicine, space conquest, communication and computer science. But others have generated disadvantages and threats that never crossed the mind of human being. By discovering ways to provide a better and longer life, medicine has also prepared a suitable environment for population growth along which cropped up many other problems that affected the environment and created the need to protect nature from man. Medical advances in genetic engineering and cloning have also become a danger threatening all humanity because of absence of ethical values.
ISESCO’s headquarters in Rabat, Morocco
On the other hand, technological leaps and the changes they entailed in workplaces have generated a huge gap between the education dispensed and the requirements of the job market, which led to a loss of credibility in education, especially with the increase of the number of unemployed graduates. This, has resulted from the slow development of educational institutions compared to the fast pace of social changes and the accompanying change in requirements.
In the light of these successive changes, and in an attempt to catch up with progress, the Islamic Organization has opted for continuing to use scientific development through education to achieve continuous and global development based on the teachings of Islam and respectful of the Islamic characteristics and Islamic civilization. It has also set up programmes to link education to development under its various forms and made efforts to improve environment, population, and health education at the theoretical and practical levels as an integral part of general education and as guidance for the person in his dealing with the dangers of unbridled and liberal development, where morals have no say and greed for money is the master.
Keeping Abreast With Changes
Improving educational and teaching systems is a major factor in the development of countries and societies and would enable these to achieve success in today’s world, to prepare generations for the future by arming them with enough resources to adjust to the rapid changes and keep alert for unexpected shifts. Institutions should aim for a better quality of education, reduce occasions of educational loss and waste and constantly make the necessary improvements required in the educational process in order to keep up with regional and international changes in various fields.
But though a number of countries are aware of this need, many of them still follow traditional systems in education and fail to give educational research and planning the importance they need. In consequence, the Islamic Organization has endeavoured to find more than one means to raise education to a viable level, to ensure a good effectiveness of the educational system in Islamic countries and to prepare the Muslims for the demands and the realities of modern times. This requires that the educational process moves from the technique of mere learning by heart to that of understanding, creativity and application.
Technological education has benefited from a generous share of the Organization’s interest, the aim being an alignment of education with the realities of daily modern life and encouraging students to make constant use of it. Another goal would be the training of persons to use increasingly sophisticated technology.
Another factor that is tantamount to the achievement of educational development is the issue of finance. Useful education, as aspired to by most countries, requires huge investments that governments are in no position to bear alone. In the twenty first century, the wealthiest countries in the world will have difficulty covering all the expenses of education from their budgets. Deep reflection is needed to come up with possible formulas for the financing of education, formulas such as cooperative schooling, encouraging private education institutions and approving investments that would generate funds for schooling.
You can follow Professor Mohamed Chtatou on Twitter: @Ayurinu
End Notes:
i. https://www.isesco.org.ma/
ii. https://www.isesco.org.ma/charter-of-isesco/
Preamble of ISESCO’s Charter :
“The Governments of the Member States, Believing that Islam, a religion of peace and tolerance, represents a way of life and a spiritual, human, moral, cultural and civilizational force which made, and is still making, constructive contribution towards the shaping of the Islamic World and the development of human civilization; Responding to the expectations of the Member States and the hopes of the Islamic Ummah in achieving cooperation, solidarity, progress and prosperity within the framework of joint Islamic action; In anticipation of the challenges faced by the Member States in the educational, scientific, cultural and communication fields, and being aware of the importance of such fields in achieving development, progress and prosperity, without neglecting the Ummah’s glorious heritage; Being aware of the close bonds which unite the peoples of the Islamic World through the unity of civilization and the shared spiritual, moral and cultural values, and seeking to encourage civilizational interaction and promote these shared civilizational, cultural and intellectual bonds; Activating the principles of solidarity, mutual assistance and equality to reinforce cooperation among the Member States and thereby promote education, science, culture and communication through all appropriate means;”
iii. Cf. The Holy Koran, version 6.31, Koran with Exegis, Translation and Memorization, edited by Sakhr ltd. Jordan.
iv. Ibid.
v. Ibid.
vi. Cf. Chtatou, M. “ Religious education in the Muslim World- ISESCO’s efforts for peace and inter-faith dialogue’’ pp 46-50, in Teaching for Tolerance and Freedom of Religion or Belief, eds. Lena Larsen and Ingvild T. Pelsner, 2002, Oslo University, Oslo: Norway, p 46.
vii. Ibid, p. 47.
viii. Cf. Lemu, A. “ Religious Education in Nigeria – A Case Study’’ pp 69-75 in Teaching for Tolerance and Freedom of Religion or Belief, eds. Lena Larsen and Ingvild T. Pelsner, 2002, Oslo University, Oslo: Norway, p 71.
ix. Ibid, p. 72.
x. Cf. Laymackan, R., “Religious Education in Modern Turkey in the Context of Freedom of Religion or Belief’’ pp. 51-54 in Teaching for Tolerance and Freedom of Religion or Belief, eds. Lena Larsen and Ingvild T. Pelsner, 2002, Oslo University, Oslo: Norway, p 51.
xi. http://originalpeople.org/scramble-for-africa-par/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scramble_for_Africa
xii. Chtatou, M. 1992. Using Arabic Script in the Writing of the Languages of Moslem People of Africa. Rabat, Morocco: Institute for African Studies;
xiii. Chtatou, M. 2010. “Mother Tongue in Education: the African Experience, in Globalization and Mother Tongues in Africa, ed. Yamina El Kirat El Allame. (2010), p 153-178.
xiv. https://www.tostan.org/fr/programmes/ou-nous-travaillons/senegal/
xv. Cf. Guttman, C. “Breaking through: TOSTAN’S non –formal basic education programme in national languages in Senegal’’ in Making it work N° 6, 1995, Paris: UNESCO, p.10.
xvi. Ibid, p. 11.
xvii. http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0012/001275/127583e.pdf
The Jomtien Conference 1990
http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0012/001211/121147e.pdf
The Dakar Framework for Action 2000
Iraqi Vice President Ayad Allawi on Monday warned there could be a “civil war” over the Kurdish-administered city of Kirkuk if talks over Kurdish independence are left unresolved.
Allawi, in an interview with The Associated Press, urged Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani, as well as Iraq’s central government and its Iranian-backed militias, to show restraint and resolve their disputes over the oil-rich city.
Ruling out a military solution to the crisis, Ihssan Al-Shimari, an adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abadi, told Arab News: “Talking about a civil war between Kurds and Arabs is an attempt to pressure both sides — Baghdad and Kurdistan — but the reality on the ground doesn’t indicate any of these expectations.”
Al-Shimari said: “The prime minister has flatly refused to fight Kurdish citizens and still relies on constitutional measures, which offer a wide range of options to the federal government to deal with the crisis.”
He added: “Kirkuk is a disputed area, and according to the constitution its administration has to go back to the Iraqi federal government.”
Kirkuk was included in Iraqi Kurdistan’s independence referendum last month, even though it falls outside the autonomous Kurdish region in the country’s northeast.
The ethnically mixed city has been administered by Kurdish forces since 2014, when the Iraqi military fled a Daesh advance.
The referendum was held despite strong objections from Baghdad, Ankara and Tehran. Barzani has not yet declared independence.
“Iraqis should be left alone to discuss their own problems without interference,” said Allawi. “Kirkuk has become a flashpoint.”
The head of the Asaib Al-Haq militia, Qais Khazali, on Sunday warned that the Kurds were planning to claim much of northern Iraq, including Kirkuk, for an independent state, after they voted for independence in a controversial but non-binding referendum two weeks ago.
He said it would be tantamount to a “foreign occupation,” reported the Afaq TV channel, which is close to the state-sanctioned militia.
Allawi, a former prime minister, said any move by the country’s Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs), which include Asaib Al-Haq, to enter Kirkuk would “damage all possibilities for unifying Iraq” and open the door to “violent conflict.”
He said if the government controls the PMUs, as it claims, it “should restrain them, rather than go into a kind of civil war.” Allawi also urged the Kurdish side “not to take aggressive measures to control these lands.”
Mohammed Naji, a lawmaker and a senior leader of Badr — one of the most prominent Iraqi Shiite militias — told Arab News: “It’s early to pick up the last option (confrontation). The federal government will use all available measures to contain the crisis, and using (military) power to impose federal authority (in Kirkuk) and preserve the unity of Iraqi lands and people will be the last option.”
Naji said: “From the beginning, we’ve said the referendum is unconstitutional. It violates the first item of the Iraqi constitution, and any action that aims to divide Iraq is unacceptable to all Iraqis.”
He added: “Resolving the problem of Kirkuk and the other disputed areas would be according to the constitution, and we can go back to talks (with the Kurds) under the umbrella of the constitution.”
He continued: “We’ve asked both parties (Baghdad and Irbil) to abide by the constitution, but if the Kurdish brothers insist on their stubbornness, this means they want to go with the hardest option, which is confrontation.”
Al-Abadi demanded that the Kurdistan Regional Government annul the referendum result, and called for joint administration of Kirkuk. Baghdad has closed Iraqi Kurdistan’s airspace to international flights.
Turkey and Iran have threatened punitive measures against the Kurdish region, fearing the encouragement of separatist sentiment among their own Kurdish populations.
Some promises are made and kept, others disavowed. The Balfour Declaration, a promise made 100 years ago by the British Foreign Secretary to Jewish leaders in Britain, was honored only in part. A state for the Jewish people was indeed established, but that part of the declaration promising protection for the Palestinian people has been a sham for a century.
In fact, Arthur James Balfour, like many of his peers, was anti-Semitic. He cared little about the fate of Jewish communities. His commitment to establishing a Jewish state on land already populated by a thriving and historically rooted nation was meant only to enlist the support of wealthy Zionist leaders for Britain’s role in the First World War.
This is what Balfour wrote to the leader of the Jewish community in Britain, Walter Rothschild, on November 2, 1917:
“His Majesty’s government views with favor the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people, and will use their best endeavors to facilitate the achievement of this object, it being clearly understood that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine, or the rights and political status enjoyed by Jews in any other country. I should be grateful if you would bring this declaration to the knowledge of the Zionist Federation.”
As Balfour finished writing his infamous words, he must have been consumed with how effective they would be in enlisting Zionists to join Britain’s military adventures, in exchange for a piece of land that was still under the control of the Ottoman Empire. He clearly had no genuine regard for the millions of Palestinians — Muslims and Christians alike — who were to suffer the cruelty of war, ethnic cleansing, racism and humiliation over the next century.
Tamam Nassar, 75, is one of millions of Palestinians whose life Balfour scarred for ever. She was uprooted from her village of Joulis in southern Palestine in 1948. She was only 5.
Tamam now lives with her children and grandchildren in the Nuseirat refugee camp in Gaza. Weary of never-ending war, siege and poverty, she holds on to a few hazy memories of a past that can never be redeemed.
By the time she was born, the British had already colonized Palestine for decades, starting months after Balfour signed his declaration. The few memories peeking through the naïveté of Tamam’s innocence are largely about racing after British military convoys, pleading for candy.
She did not encounter Jews, or perhaps she did, but since many Palestinian Jews looked just like Palestinian Arabs she could not tell the difference, or did not care to make the distinction. People were just people. Jews were their neighbors in Joulis, and that was all that mattered.
Although the Palestinian Jews lived behind walls, fences and trenches, for a while they walked freely among the fellahin (peasants), shopped in their markets and sought their help, for only the fellahin knew how to speak the language of the land and decode the signs of the seasons.
Tamam’s house was made of hardened mud, and had a small front yard, where the little girl and her brothers were often confined when the military convoys roamed their village. Soon, this would happen more frequently and the candy that once sweetened the children’s lives was no longer offered.
In 1948, war changed everything. The battle around Joulis crept up all too quickly and showed little mercy. Some of the fellahin who ventured out beyond the village were never seen again.
The battle was bloody but brief. Poor peasants with kitchen knives and a few old rifles were no match for advanced armies. British soldiers pulled out to allow Zionist militias to attack, and the villagers were chased out.
Tamam, her brothers and their parents never saw their village again. They moved about in refugee camps around Gaza, before settling permanently in Nuseirat. Their tent was eventually replaced by a mud house.
In Gaza, Tamam has lived through wars, bombing, sieges and every persecution tactic Israel can muster. Her resolve is weakened only by the frailty of her ageing body, and sadness over the untimely deaths of her brother, Salim, and her son, Kamal. Salim was killed by the Israeli army while trying to escape Gaza after the Israeli invasion in 1956. Kamal died after being tortured in Israeli prisons.
If Balfour was so keen to ensure “nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine,” why is the British government committed to Israel after all these years? Are 70 years of Palestinian exile and 50 years of Israeli military occupation not sufficient proof that Israel has no respect for international law and Palestinian human, civil and religious rights?
As she grows older, Tamam returns to Joulis in her mind, often seeking a fleetingly happy memory or a moment of solace. Life under siege in Gaza is hard, especially for old people struggling with ill health and broken hearts.
The attitude of the current British government, which is preparing a massive celebration to commemorate the centenary of the Balfour Declaration, suggests that nothing has changed and no lessons have been learnt in the 100 years since Balfour made his ominous promise to establish a Jewish state. But this is also true for the Palestinian people. Their commitment to fight for freedom is also unchanged, and neither Balfour nor all of Britain’s foreign secretaries since have managed to break their will.
Just over a week after a new ban on full-face veils came into force in Austria, police have made headlines by following the letter of the law in unexpected ways, such as fining a man who was promoting a store in a shark costume.
The man, posing as a mascot of the McShark electronics retail chain in Vienna, was supposed to attract customers to buy a new Apple device. However, he was instead approached by police officers, demanding that he take off his shark mask or face a fine.
The man refused to comply, telling police that he “was just doing [his] work,” according to the Heute newspaper. The promoter ended up being slapped with a fine, according to his employer, advertising agency Warda Network.
“Today we were at the McShark store opening and our shark mascot received a fine from the Vienna police because of the new ban on face-coverings! Life is not easy!” DW cited the agency’s post on Facebook. The firm’s managing director, Eugen Prosquill, said he didn’t expect mascots to be covered by the new ban.
“It would be a shame if there were no more mascots from now on,” he said.
The controversial ban, which came into effect at the start of the month, is widely considered to be targeting Islamic head garments such as burqas and niqabs. The authorities claim the legislation is “religiously neutral,” also targeting any headgear that conceals face in the public.
The ban could also affect those sporting off-slope ski masks, surgical masks or party masks. It excludes coverings used for medical or safety reasons, as well as for street carnivals or other cultural events.
The restrictive act made headlines shortly after its introduction. An altercation between two women took place in Vienna last week, when one of them reminded a veil-clad woman about the new ban, according to the Krone newspaper. The police soon stepped in and took the niqab-wearer away to press charges of attempted bodily injury, as well as violating the ban.
NATO on Monday inaugurated a new multinational force, the Multinational NATO South-East Brigade, headquartered in Craiova, southern Romania, aimed at countering Russia’s increased threat to the Black Sea region.
NATO be increasing its land, air and naval presence in both Romania and Bulgaria, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday, while in Bucharest to attend the Annual Plenary Session of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly.
Stoltenberg told a joint press conference with Romanian President Klaus Iohannis that “the brigade in Romania is only a part of our answer to the increased Russian presence in the Black Sea.”
However, it would send a message that an attack against a member of NATO will be treated as an attack against all allies, he stressed.
“Our deployments are a direct response to Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine,” Stoltenberg told the NATO Parliamentary Assembly on Monday morning.
“NATO’s actions are defensive, proportionate and entirely in line with our international commitments. We are concerned by Russia’s military build-up close to our borders and its lack of transparency when it comes to military exercises such as [the recent exercise] ZAPAD 2017,” he added.
The establishment of the new multinational force is seen as a diplomatic success in Romania.
Bucharest has been advocating a reinforced NATO presence in Southeast Europe since the Warsaw Summit in 2016, when the alliance agreed to set up a 4,000-troop force in the Baltics and Poland.
However, negotiations were tough. Neighbouring Bulgaria and Turkey, the other two Black Sea NATO countries, are closer to Russia diplomatically and either opposed the initiative or supported only a more limited NATO presence.
President Iohannis told the NATO assembly in Bucharest that Romania’s purpose was peace, not war.
“We are not a threat for Russia, but we need an allied strategy in the long term, we need dialogue from a strong position of defence and discouragement,” he said.
NATO’s Black Sea maritime presence already includes naval patrols but it will be boosted with more allied visits to Romanian and Bulgarian ports, enhanced training and exercises.
NATO Black Sea air forces will also increase in strength, with Britain deploying more fighter planes to Romania. Canada is already patrolling Romanian airspace along with national pilots, while Italy is patrolling Bulgarian airspace.
During a visit to Romania, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg Monday met with the President of Romania, Klaus Werner Iohannis, and Prime Minister Mihai Tudose.
Following the Secretary General’s meeting with President Iohannis, at which the two discussed how NATO is responding to the challenges NATO faces, Stoltenberg thanked Romania for its many contributions to the Alliance – including its continuing support for NATO’s missions in Afghanistan and Kosovo, and its hosting of a new multinational brigade.
Stoltenberg also praised the Romanian government’s announcement that it will meet the NATO target of spending 2% of GDP on defence this year; Romania is “leading by example”, he said, “helping to give the Alliance the capabilities we need, and ensuring fairer-burden-sharing”.
The Secretary General also met with Prime Minister Mihai Tudose. Speaking alongside the Prime Minister at a joint press conference, Stoltenberg acknowledged the “steadfast contributions” Romania makes to NATO on issues as diverse as cyber-defence and ballistic missile defence.
Stoltenberg also restated his congratulations to Romania for its announcement on defence spending, saying that the decision “will strengthen the defences of Romania” and “strengthen NATO”.
Following his meetings in Bucharest, the Secretary General traveled with President Iohannis to visit troops serving in the new multinational brigade based at Craiova as part of NATO’s tailored Forward presence in the South-east of the Alliance.
The unit, which includes troops from Romania and Poland, is helping to coordinate Allied training and exercises in the region. Bulgaria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, and Spain are also providing staff to the brigade headquarters.
Authorities in Tajikistan announced that the elder brother of the president died of heart failure, aged 67.
According to official sources, Nuriddin Rahmon had lately been engaged in simple farming work and occupied no government posts, but he is known to have been a trusted advisor to his brother. The closeness of the sibling relationship has often been linked to the childhood trauma of the death of their older brother, Faiziddin, while he was serving in the army on the Crimean Peninsula.
President Emomali Rahmon, 65, has often recalled his family’s poverty and that their lack of money meant his brother’s remains could not be brought home and that he had to be buried on the border of Ukraine and Russia instead.
If Nuriddin Rahmon did not occupy any formal state positions, the same could not be said of his extended family. One son-in-law, Bahrom Kholmurodov, is head of the Foreign Ministry’s consular department. Another, Safar Djobirzoda, works in the anticorruption agency. Sulton Bekmurodzoda and Izzatullo Khurmatov, two other sons-in-law, hold jobs in the Health Ministry and Customs Service, respectively. His son is a district prosecutor. On and on it goes, in a manner characteristic of how plum government jobs are allocated in Tajikistan.
On October 6, India hosted the 14th EU-India Summit in New Delhi. Leaders discussed foreign and security policy, migration, trade, climate, research and innovation.
Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, and Jean Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, represented the EU. India was represented by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The summit with India marked the 55th anniversary since the establishment of EU-India diplomatic relations.
EU President Donald Tusk said that he was pleased that the two regions, “agreed to further develop the political dimension of our relationship; that we have agreed to develop our dynamic trade and investment relations; and that we have agreed to step up cooperation on global and regional issues.”
Leaders adopted a joint statement, reaffirming their commitment to strengthen the EU-India strategic partnership.
At the summit, leaders reaffirmed their commitment to further deepen and strengthen the India-EU strategic partnership.
They welcomed the progress made towards implementing the India-EU agenda for action 2020. This is the roadmap for bilateral cooperation endorsed at the previous India-EU Summit.
Security
EU and India leaders strongly condemned the recent terrorist attacks across the world. They called on the global community to unite against the terrorist threat.
Leaders adopted a joint statement on counter-terrorism cooperation to tackle foreign terrorist fighters, terrorist financing and arms supply.
The EU and India also reaffirmed their commitment to further cooperate on maritime security in the Indian ocean and beyond. Leaders welcomed the resumption of tactical exercises in the Gulf of Aden between the EU’s Naval Force Operation ATALANTA and the Indian Navy.
Foreign policy
Leaders called to end violence towards the Rohingya minority in Myanmar and to restore peace in the Rakhine state without any delay.
“The Rohingya people must be able to return voluntarily, in safety and dignity. We call for the implementation of the recommendations of the international Rakhine Advisory Commission to tackle the root causes of this crisis,” said President Donald Tusk at the press conference of the EU-India summit
Regarding the situation in the Korean peninsula, both sides condemned the nuclear test conducted by the DPRK on September 3. The EU and India called for the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula and for all UNSC sanctions to be fully implemented by the entire international community.
“The European Union, India and the whole international community have a responsibility to act with resolve for a peaceful denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula,” Tusk said.
On the Iranian nuclear issue, India and the EU reaffirmed their support for the continued full implementation of the joint comprehensive plan of action (JCPOA).
On Ukraine, leaders underlined their strong support for a diplomatic solution through the full implementation of the Minsk Agreements by all parties.
Global challenges
EU and India leaders discussed the global migration and refugee crisis and agreed to coordinate closely.
Leaders reaffirmed their support to the UN reform agenda and their commitment to stronger global governance.
On climate change, leaders stressed their commitment to the Paris Agreement and agreed to step up cooperation on its implementation. The EU and India adopted a joint statement on clean energy and climate change.
The EU and India also reiterated their commitment to collaborate on common priorities to achieve the sustainable development goals.
Trade
EU and India leaders expressed their shared commitment to strengthening the economic partnership between India and the EU.
Leaders noted the ongoing efforts of both sides to re-engage towards relaunching negotiations for an India-EU broad based trade and investment agreement (BTIA).
(EurActiv) — On Monday, local government officials from across the European Union converged in Brussels for the ‘European Week of Regions and Cities’. As they meet, they will be well aware of the turmoil taking place in one region in particular – Catalonia.
The Catalan crisis has made newspapers across Europe turn their attention to other secessionist movements, from Scotland to Flanders to Bavaria. Will violence by the Spanish state against regional forces embolden these other movements? Is this when the EU comes apart at the seams?
The increasing regional desires for autonomy have been presented as a threat to the EU. But could the EU actually be the solution?
Though anti-EU populists such as Nigel Farage and Geert Wilders have championed the Catalan cause this week, the Catalan secessionists are not anti-EU. On the contrary, like other movements in places like Scotland and Flanders, their plan for independence depends on continued membership in the bloc. It is the EU that has emboldened them, because as a member state they would still have access to their country’s market.
In challenging the primacy of the nation-state, the EU has made regional independence a possibility in a way it never was before.
Subsidiarity
Indeed, while many citizens think of the EU as something that transfers power from national capitals to Brussels, the original idea was that this transfer should move in two directions – up to Brussels and down to regions.
It is enshrined in the principle of ‘subsidiarity’: that decisions should be made at the level – European, national, or regional – that is closest to citizens while still being effective. It was codified in 1985 and inserted into the Maastricht Treaty in 1992.
To this end, the EU’s Committee of the Regions was created in 1994. Given that 70% of EU legislation needs to be implemented at the regional level, it was meant to give regional governments a greater voice in EU policy-making.
“The principle of subsidiarity is in the treaties, and if it’s to be taken seriously, decision-making should take place at the level of governance which is closest to the citizen,” said Michael O’Conchuir of the European Alliance group of regionalist-minded members of the committee.
However, the committee’s role has not worked out the way it was first envisioned. It has only an advisory role, with little say in EU lawmaking.
It has been consistently sidelined by the European Council, the body of national member state representatives, which usually ignores its advice. In a special report on the European Union earlier this year, The Economist called the institution “preposterous”, adding that “hardly anybody, even in Brussels, would notice if it disappeared tomorrow.”
But that may be about to change.
A union of regions
Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, has proposed a series of “citizens dialogues” on EU reform to take place across the EU over the coming year. The idea has been backed by Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission. This dialogue may eventually lead to treaty change.
Some are positing that a change which gives more autonomy to Europe’s regions, in the context of EU lawmaking, could address the increasing mood of localism across the bloc.
“Over the last years there’s been an awful lot of voters moving towards parties which represent nations, which want more power to go to the regions and more autonomy – predominantly in larger member states,” said O’Conchuir.
He stressed that EU reform should address this. “The Committee of the Regions should be changed from an advisory body to a real institution, enshrined in the treaties.”
The idea is not new. The concept of a “Europe of the Regions” was coined by Denis de Rougemont, the Swiss regionalist philosopher, decades ago as a way to dilute the centralised power of the EU’s nation-states, the vast majority of which are less than 200 years old.
EU leaders have recently hinted that this focus on regionalisation could be part of the EU reform drive. Speaking to the Committee of the Regions last year, European Council President Donald Tusk denounced the separatism wave sweeping the continent and said more Europe could be a solution.
“A Europe of the regions would be freer and fairer than a Europe of new fatherlands,” he told the regional representatives.
“The idea of Europe is much older than Europe’s nations. That is why our heritage is as much about Wales, Provence or Lapland or Kashubia – and their diversity – as it is about single nation-states. Nationalism means being separate. And separatism, also on the regional level, does not lead to better democracy or greater diversity. For me, real regionalism is a strong antidote to nationalism and separatism,” Tusk said
A former prime minister of Poland, Tusk said diffusion of political decisions would help democracy. “Strong regions show a strong country,” he said. “The more a country is just about a capital city, the less healthy it is. Everything that is bad in European history is usually the result of the urge to centralise and make everything homogenous – communism, fascism, nationalism.”
However, the challenge is that each country has different experiences of regionalism. The EU has federal countries like Germany and Austria, where states exercise huge power. But it also has extremely centralised countries like France or Sweden, where regional governance is almost non-existent.
Then it has centralised countries like the UK and Spain, where some territories have been given devolved authority, but not others.
The problem, O’Conchuir noted, is that while some regions are clamouring for autonomy, others don’t care.
Given that Macron comes from a centralised country without strong independence movements outside Corsica, it is unlikely that a regionalisation idea will be his main focus. But it could be an idea coming from Germany, where politicians have often suggested that their federal structure of governance would be beneficial for countries like Spain.
Cooperation today
EU regions already have more power today as a result of being in the EU. The regional development funds given out by Brussels go directly to regional authorities, which are able to independently take the decisions on how they are spent.
This situation has, however, been the subject of criticism because it has sometimes resulted in corruption and lack of transparency.
Regions are also creating co-governance frameworks with regions in neighbouring countries through EU programmes. In 1990, the EU created the Interreg programme to foster this cooperation. Today it has a budget of €10bn and oversees 60 cross-border regional partnerships.
“The aim is to find common solutions for cross-border problems such as roads, rivers, water quality and environmental issues,” said Erwin Siweris, the programme’s director.
Notably, these partnerships are done directly between the regional governments. This has empowered regions to take decisions at home.
Siweris said it has worked to help regions recognise their own power. “The purpose of the programme is to give regions a voice, and that’s what they have,” he said.
“I think the programme can perfectly help to overcome national or regional divides. This is a programme for the regions by the regions. If you take the example of Belgium, in national politics the regions have some troubles, but in the programme, they speak with one voice. They’re working perfectly together.”
Tusk has also encouraged these cross-border partnerships, noting in his speech that “regions cut across borders and pre-date them”. He gave the example of Tyrol, which transcends the Austrian-Italian border and in which three languages are spoken interchangeably.
Threats to the nation state
But some have felt threatened by these regional partnerships. Since its launch, British tabloids have periodically picked up on Interreg’s activity and splashed headlines across their pages saying the EU is trying to erase the nation-state.
The Sun first raised alarm in 1997, after discovering a “new” Interreg map dividing the UK into regions for the purposes of regional administration. That England was divided into nine regions was seen as “Brussels wiping England off its new euromap…clearly an attempt to divide and rule.” The story was repeated again in 1999 as a “new” map.
In 2006 The Telegraph was incensed when it discovered the map of regional partnerships and found something labelled as the “TransManche Region” – an area of partnership between regions on either side of the English Channel.
“They have tried to redraw the map of Europe before – now a German-led conspiracy of cartographers stands accused of trying to use a new European Union directive to give Brussels the power to change national boundaries,” the paper wrote.
Such reaction to the mere suggestion of increased regional autonomy and cooperation from media entrenched in national capitals shows what the drive to create a “Europe of the regions” would be up against.
Speaking on Belgian radio this week after the events in Catalonia, Karl-Heinz Lambertz, the president of the Committee of the Regions, noted that the Commission’s refusal to engage directly with the Catalan government during the crisis shows that national capitals still hold a monopoly on power in the EU. The EU, he said, should not be afraid to go around national capitals and speak directly to regions.
“The situation we’re now living in Catalonia is obviously disrupting the overall balance a little,” he said. “We must arrive at this multi-level government, of which we hear so often, where each level of power can develop and work in coherence with others from Europe.”
In his new strategy for Afghanistan, US President Donald Trump recently decided on increasing the number of American troops in the country. He said a hasty withdrawal would create a power vacuum for the terrorists, which would pose a serious threat for the struggling Afghan security forces. Many previous reports have indicated that the majority of Afghan forces still lack independent operational capabilities and more ground-level advisors embedded within their units are required to provide advisory and assistance. The US military is also conducting ground and aerial counterterrorism operations against the Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) and Taliban targets.
Given the current security situation in Afghanistan, in what roles are the new US troops expected to be deployed?
NATO’s Resolute Support (RS) mission is mainly divided into three categories :
The Combined Security Transition Command – Afghanistan (CSTC-A) works throughout Afghanistan assisting the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) with essential functions like planning and budgeting, civilian governance, strengthening the rule of law, and intelligence operations.
The Train, Advise, Assist Commands (TAACs) are divided into six zones: North, South, East, West, Capital, and Air. They work with the Afghan forces on different levels of training, advisory, and assistance especially on the ground.
The Task Forces (TFs) – of which there are two, TF Southwest and TF Southeast – comprise only US troops who conduct functionally-based security force assistance to “enable ANDSF to retain key terrain, disrupt insurgent networks, generate sustainable combat power, and set conditions for future operations.” TF Southwest also comprises 300 marines who were deployed in March 2017, which is indicative of a more combative role for the task forces.
Under the NATO mission, coalition advisors work on three levels with the Afghan forces:
Level One: Advisors work in close proximity with the Afghan forces on a continuous basis, usually embedded within an Afghan unit.
Level Two: Advisors work on a less frequent basis, depending normally on the capability of the Afghan forces, threat levels, and coalition resources.
Level Three: Advisors are not co-located with the Afghan forces and communicate from a central location.
Previous US congressional reports have indicated a requirement for a higher number of Level One advisors, which also indicates that the majority of Afghan forces are still not fully capable of operating independently.
Gen John Nicholson Jr., commander of the US forces and the NATO mission in Afghanistan, noted in his February 2017 congressional testimony that there were adequate US forces for counterterrorism operations, but a few thousand more troops were needed for Train, Advise, Assist (TAA) missions. The limited numbers of Level One advisors was also reported to be the reason behind the brief seizure of Kunduz by the Taliban in September 2015. Understanding this limitation and the dynamics of the Taliban offensive in the region, the NATO mission increased the number of advisor troops in the north to 1600.
As of May 2017 , the NATO mission had a total of 13,576 coalition troops from 39 countries, of which the US contributed 6,941 troops, leaving approximately 4,000 US troops for counterterrorism operations.
The increase of 3,000 troops is likely to include airborne forces and marines along with additional aerial support such as F-16 fighters, A-10s and B-52 bombers, which are to be based in Qatar. An increase in fighter and bomber aircraft, along with the recent dropping in Nangarhar of the Massive Ordinance Air Blast (MOAB), the most powerful non-nuclear weapon in the US arsenal, shows the Trump administration’s increasing reliance on air strikes against hostile forces.
Approximately half of the new troops are expected to be from the 82nd Airborne Division’s 1st Brigade Combat Team (BCT), with 1st BCT troops also forming a major part of TF Southwest . The 82nd Airborne is an elite airborne infantry division specialising in combat assault operations in hostile areas, and is experienced in conducting operations in Iraq. These elite troops can be expected to assist and participate with the Afghan Special Forces in conducting missions against the IS-K and Taliban targets, assisted with an increased aerial support.
The US forces are also conducting counterterrorism operations, independently and with Afghan Special Forces, especially against IS-K and al Qaeda associates. In April 2017, the US lost a member of its Special Forces team and two Army Rangers while conducting operations against IS-K in Nangarhar, highlighting the existence and likely continuation of ground counterterrorism operations.
Though the US is yet to confirm the areas of deployment, most new troops are expected to undertake Level One TAA missions with Afghan forces. This suggests that a majority of the Afghan forces have limited independent operational capabilities. There is also a possibility that some new troops could be deployed to support counterterrorism operations under the US mission, working together with their Afghan counterparts. The accompanying focus on elite troops and airpower suggests that the US is attempting to break the current ‘stalemate’ in the Afghan security situation.
The new troops’ pattern of deployment, along with the levels of cooperation and assistance to their Afghan partners, could determine the long-term capacity for the development of the Afghan security forces.
*Rajat Ahlawat
Research Intern, IReS, IPCS
Email: rajat.ahlawat27@gmail.com
New Zealand’s recent General Election may have taken place but it is not really over. Special and overseas votes remain to be counted. The final total result is set for 7 October. Then a governing coalition has to be put together. There is little likelihood, however, of radical change in external policies.
By Evan Rogerson*
New Zealand’s latest General Election may have taken place on 23 September 2017, but it isn’t really over. Special and overseas votes remain to be counted – the Electoral Commission has set 7 October as the date for the final result. On past form the left bloc of Labour and Greens stand to gain one or two seats more on their current combined total of 52.
This would still leave the right-wing National Party, currently on 58, as the largest group in Parliament, with its libertarian ally ACT bringing one more seat. However both blocs would fall short of the 61 seats needed to form a government in the 120-member House.
Rise of a Kingmaker
Enter the king (or queen) maker. Winston Peters, the veteran leader of New Zealand First, currently controls nine seats, enough to tip the result either way. He is being intensively courted by both sides but is understandably playing his cards very close to his chest. Peters has said he would not announce his decision until the final result is in. Any additional seats for Labour/the Greens would give more stability and legitimacy to a coalition or support agreement with NZ First, which otherwise would have a one-seat majority.
On the other side National, which took 46% of the vote, is stressing its claim to govern for a fourth term. With NZ First and ACT support National would have a clear majority. Under New Zealand’s proportional representation electoral system, though, there are no rules or conventions about who gets to form a government; it all comes down to the numbers.
Guessing which way NZ First will go has become an election spinoff industry. Most commentators think Peters will choose National, given its status as the largest party and his expressed distaste for the Greens. However on a number of their policy priorities NZ First is closer to Labour, and Peters, a former National MP, has scores to settle with his old party.
His own position in a new government and his political legacy – he is 72 – will also enter into the calculation. For outside observers what matters is that whichever way NZ First jumps, there may be an effect on New Zealand policies in key areas such as immigration and trade. Any such effects are unlikely to be radical.
New Zealand First: Populist and Complex?
New Zealand First is usually described as a populist party. Its reality is more complex and often contradictory. Peters, who is part-Maori, opposes the reserved Maori seats in Parliament and appeals most to older white voters who feel left behind by the rapid economic and social changes of recent years. In previous coalition roles he has made defending pensioner rights a priority.
NZ First wants to cut immigration to around 10,000 a year. The annual average net immigration for the last decade was 21,800, and for the year to June 2017 it was 69,100. It also wants to “stop the sale of land and farmland to foreigners”. Its trade policies range from opposition to the Investor-State Dispute Settlement provisions in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a favourite left-wing cause, to right-wing nostalgia for “Closer Commonwealth Economic Relations”.
Overall the impression is that their external policies are not well thought out and not very coherent. The unifying thread is a generalised economic nationalism, which is nonetheless far short of Trumpian belligerence, as part of a wider urge to roll back the neo-liberal policies followed by both main parties over recent decades.
How much traction will ideas like these gain in the coalition negotiations with either major party? Labour has also come out in favour of limiting immigration, though not as strongly. It also says the TPP needs renegotiating to enable New Zealand to limit foreign property purchases. This does not mean it would adopt NZ First’s ideas in the event of a coalition deal; its leadership is aware of the need to appeal to the middle ground and to maintain New Zealand’s economic growth. National is pre-eminently the free-market party but it is also very pragmatic when power is at stake.
Domestic Issues and Past Practice
In any case the focus for concessions to NZ First is likely to be more on the domestic issues that resonate most with its voters, such as National’s plan to put up the qualifying age for the state pension to from 65 to 67. Given that National has set 2040 as the implementation date, there is some room for NZ First to secure a win here.
It is also worth noting the difference between NZ First’s policies and past practice. Though Peters has often been accused of xenophobia, he was an unexpected success as foreign minister in an earlier coalition with Labour, winning respect from diplomats.
Under either of the coalition or support options, therefore, do not expect major changes in those aspects of New Zealand’s policies that are of most interest to its international partners. At the most some tightening of immigration administration and the conditions for property purchase by overseas buyers, but not TPP renegotiation or major changes to monetary or fiscal policies.
Looking to the longer term, though, we should not underestimate the changes that this election signals. Conservative pundits have dismissed Labour’s return from the dead under its charismatic new leader Jacinda Ardern as style over substance; but with an enlarged and rejuvenated parliamentary presence it is likely to have staying power even in opposition.
The National Party scored a remarkable result, but at least for the duration of the election campaign it was forced to move beyond its laissez-faire, managerial comfort zone and belatedly promise action on issues such as child poverty and the housing crisis. Its vote share does not mean unqualified support for the status quo. In New Zealand, as in many other developed countries, the neo-liberal tide is running out. Responding to the demand for action on social and environmental issues while staying open to the world is a major challenge for whoever forms the next government.
*Evan Rogerson is a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS), S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. He is the former Director of the Agriculture and Commodities Division of the WTO Secretariat Geneva.
At least 20 persons were killed and more than 30 injured on October 5, 2017, when a suicide bomber struck outside the Dargah (Sufi shrine) of Pir Rakhyal Shah in the Gandawa area of Fatehpur, a small town in the Jhal Magsi District of Balochistan. The deceased included at least three children. Four of the injured people died later, two each on October 6 and October 7, raising the death toll to 24.
District Police Officer (DPO) Mohammad Iqbal said the suicide bomber had tried to enter the shrine but a Police constable on security duty stopped him, after which the attacker detonated his explosives killing the constable and another 19 people. Balochistan Home Minister Sarfaraz Bugti added, “if he [the attacker] had managed to enter the Dargah, the death toll would have been much higher.” The explosion occurred at 5.50 pm [PST] when the dhamaal — a devotional dance performed at shrines — was being performed after evening prayers. Islamic State (IS)/Daesh claimed responsibility for the attack.
On February 16, 2017, a suicide bomber had killed 88 people and injured more than 343 in an attack targeting the dhamaal celebration at the Lal Shahbaz Qalandar Sufi shrine in the Sehwan town of Jamshoro District in Sindh. Daesh had claimed responsibility for the attack.
Earlier, on November 12, 2016, at least 52 persons were killed and 102 others were injured in an explosion at the Sufi shrine of Shah Noorani in the Khuzdar District of Balochistan. The explosion took place at the spot where the dhamaal was being performed. At the time of the blast, at least 500 people had gathered to view the performance. Daesh claimed responsibility for the attack.
The first reported attack on a Sufi shrine in Pakistan since March 2000, when the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database commenced compiling data on terrorism-related fatalities in Pakistan, took place on March 19, 2005. On that day, at least 50 persons were killed and more than 100 others sustained injuries when a bomb exploded at a crowded gathering near the Pir Rakhyal Shah shrine (the location of the of October 5, 2017, incident). Between March 19, 2005, and October 5, 2017, terrorists carried out at least 16 attacks on Sufi shrines, killing 190 people and injuring more than 656. The prominent attacks on Sufi shrines in Pakistan include the following:
May 27, 2005: At least 25 people, including a suspected suicide bomber, were killed and approximately 100 others sustained injuries in an explosion at the Bari Imam shrine in the vicinity of the diplomatic enclave in the national capital, Islamabad. Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) claimed responsibility for the attack.
March 3, 2008: At least 10 people were killed and six injured when Lashkar-e-Islam (LeI) militants lunched a rocket attack on the 400-year-old shrine of Abu Saeed Baba in Shiekhan village on the outskirts of Peshawar, the provincial capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
July 1, 2010: At least 40 persons were killed and 175 injured when three suicide attackers blew themselves up inside the shrine of Syed Ali Hajwairi popularly known as Data Gunj Bakhsh, in the Data Durbar area of Lahore in Punjab. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the suicide bombings.
October 7, 2010: Nine persons, including two children, were killed and over 65 sustained injuries when two suicide bombers blew themselves up at the shrine of Abdullah Shah Ghazi in the Clifton area of Karachi in Sindh. TTP claimed responsibility for the attack.
October 25, 2010: A bomb explosion at the eastern gate of the Baba Farid Ganj Shakar Shrine in the Pakpattan District of Punjab killed at least six persons, including three women, and injured several others. TTP claimed responsibility for the attack.
April 3, 2011: At least 41 persons were killed and more than 100 injured when two suicide bombers blew themselves up outside the shrine of Sufi saint Ahmed Sultan, popularly known as Sakhi Sarwar, in Dera Ghazi Khan District of Punjab. TTP claimed responsibility.
February 25, 2013: Three people were killed and more than 27 were injured in a bomb attack at Dargah Ghulam Shah Ghazi in the Maari village area of Shikarpur District in Sindh. The perpetrator group was not identified.
June 21, 2014: At least 52 persons were injured in an explosion during Urs (the annual religious congregation at the shrine) celebrations at Durbar Nangay Shah Pir Badshah in the Pind Parian area of Shahzad Town Police Station in Islamabad. No group claimed responsibility for the attack.
It is not just the Sufis who have been targeted by Sunni extremist terrorist formations in Pakistan. The country has a long history of sectarian violence. Pakistani terrorist groups, principally followers of the Sunni sect of Islam, have continuously targeted places of worship of other sects of Islam, claiming that these ‘adversaries’ do not follow correct interpretation of Islam. According to partial data compiled by SATP, at least 4,708 persons have been killed and another 8,165 injured in 1,592 incidents of sectarian violence since 2000.
Most of the top NSCN-K leadership, including its new ‘chairman’ Khango Konyak, remains inside Myanmar and its operational capabilities in India’s Northeast depend heavily on their presence and safe havens in Myanmar. Out of the total estimated cadre strength of around 1,300, more than 1,000 NSCN-K cadres are sheltering in different militant camps inside Myanmar territory along the Indo-Myanmar border.
Recent attempts to fence the Indo-Myanmar border, which has no proper physical demarcation, have met with mass protests on both sides. The Free Movement Regime (FMR), which allows resident tribals along the border to move up to 16 kilometres across the boundary without restrictions, have been consistently misused by insurgents groups, and by smugglers for drugs, weapons and human trafficking.
At a time when the Northeast is witnessing dramatic improvements in insurgency related violence, the clustering of all surviving northeast militant formations in Myanmar and the support they receive from non-state groups there, remain a major challenge for the Indian security establishment. Active engagement and close coordination between India and Myanmar are necessary of the residual threat to security and stability in India’s Northeast, as well as in West and North West Myanmar, are to be effectively neutralized.
Sectarian violence in Pakistan: 2000-2017
Year
Incidents
Killed
Injured
2000
109
149
NA
2001
154
261
495
2002
63
121
257
2003
22
102
103
2004
19
187
619
2005
62
160
354
2006
38
201
349
2007
341
441
630
2008
97
306
505
2009
106
190
398
2010
57
509
1170
2011
30
203
297
2012
173
507
577
2013
128
525
914
2014
92
210
312
2015
53
276
327
2016
35
137
182
2017
13
223
676
Total*
1592
4708
8165
Source: SATP, *Data till October 8, 2017
For long, the primary players in this sectarian violence had been LeJ, TTP and LeI, who wanted to transform Pakistan into a Sunni state, primarily through violence. With the Pakistan military initiating lethal targeted operations against domestically oriented terror groups, like LeJ and TTP, and consequent significant reversers inflicted on them, Pakistan recorded a dramatic decline in all kinds of terrorism-related fatalities, including fatalities in sectarian violence. In 2016, Pakistan recorded 137 fatalities in sectarian violence, the second lowest on record since 2001. The lowest number of such fatalities, 121, was recorded way back in 2002. There has been, however, a significant surge in such fatalities in the current year – with at least 223 already killed (data till October 8, 2017).
The primary reason behind the surge in such violence is the growing influence of Daesh. Indeed, out of the last five foremost sectarian attacks (each resulting in more than 20 killings), three have been claimed by Daesh alone – the other two claimed by LeJ and Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA), a breakaway faction of TTP.
The Pakistani establishment, however, remains in denial of Daesh’s growing influence. The Foreign Office on September 29, 2017, denied the organised presence of Daesh in the country, saying that Pakistan remains immune to this terrorist formation. Earlier, on July 1, 2017, the Director General of the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) Major General Asif Ghafoor declared that there was no Daesh presence in Pakistan. Zahid Hussain, a Pakistani security analyst, noted on November 13, 2016,
IS may not have a formal structure in Pakistan, but certainly they have support among some of the banned terrorist groups, particularly Sunni sectarian groups like Lashkar-e-Jhangvi Al Alami (LeJ-AA)… It’s a kind of nexus that we are seeing between global jihadi groups and local sectarian groups.
The Pakistani military continues to highlight the ‘successes’ of the Army’s efforts in combating terrorism across the country, but vulnerabilities persist. The losses that domestically oriented terror groups have suffered have created a vacuum, providing opportunities for formations such as Daesh to spread. The rise of Daesh in Pakistan, with the allegiance of local sectarian terrorist groups, is likely to fuel sectarian violence in the foreseeable future.
Islamist terrorism continues to flourish in Pakistan as a result of the state strategy of support to externally directed terrorist formations. Domestic terrorism remains essentially a blowback phenomenon, and will continue to afflict Pakistan as long as the establishment continues to support certain terrorist formations in its policy of using these as “strategic assets” against its neighbours.
*Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate; Institute for Conflict Management
North Korea’s recent nuclear and missile developments pose arguably the highest threat to Japan. North Korea has tested more than 20 missiles in 2017 alone; and conducted its sixth nuclear test, reported to be a hydrogen bomb, on 3 September 2017. While these present a serious security threat for South Korea and the US, Japan might be North Korea’s first potential target should the eventuality arise. The reliability of North Korean missiles to cause any serious damage to the US is still doubtful, and Pyongyang’s threats to the US remain more in the realm of rhetoric than reality. Similarly, Pyongyang is not expected to attack Seoul as current South Korean President Moon Jae-in has extended several olive branches to Kim Jong-un.
North Korea’s most likely target thus appears to be Japan. In 2017, North Korea tested two missiles that flew across Japanese territory, which has alarmed Japan substantially. In this context, Japan was expected to have a more nuanced view of the crisis to try and avoid a regional armed conflict through all means available. Japan can play a constructive role by going along with South Korea in an effort to bring the US and North Korea on to the negotiating table, and say no to any armed conflict with North Korea. A common and coordinated Japanese and South Korean stand on the issue could put pressure on US President Donald Trump to not carry forward his irresponsible policy of escalation against North Korea.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is no doubt aware that a constructive policy may bring positive results, and that any escalation would have serious consequences for Japan’s security. However, Abe is willing to use the North Korean crisis to his own advantage in domestic politics and to strengthen Japan’s alliance with the new US administration.
Since most of Abe’s electoral promises, including Japan’s economic recovery, remain unfulfilled and there are chances of popular resentment, Abe needs an impending external threat to win the next election. North Korea’s dangerous behaviour has presented him with the required opportunity. The Japanese, in this hour of ‘crisis’, will want a strong and assertive leadership, and Shinzo Abe will pose himself as such a leader. In fact, China and North Korea are the two most important factors strengthening Abe’s domestic political power. Abe announced pre-term elections in Japan, to be held on 22 October 2017, for this very reason. He appears certain of winning based on the current heightened domestic threat perception of the crisis on the Korean peninsula. In addition, by suddenly announcing the elections, he has not given enough time to most of the opposition candidates and parties to articulate their electoral visions.
Another way in which Abe has leveraged the North Korean threat is by developing an extraordinary level of trust with Trump. Abe has emerged as the closest to Trump among all other leaders of US’ allies. During the US election campaign, Donald Trump expressed his dissatisfaction with allies such as Japan and South Korea, who, according to him, enjoy significant concessions from the US and must bear a equal share of their own economic and security responsibilities.
Abe was swift to meet Trump after he came to power, and did not object to Trump’s decision to pull back from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which was quite important for Japan. Abe has also expressed agreement with not only the US policy towards North Korea but also with almost statement by Trump on the matter, which have often been contradictory and confusing. On 8 October 2017, Shinzo Abe said that he “fully supports the US stance on pressuring North Korea over its nuclear weapons programme, with all options on the table.” In fact, on 30 September 2017, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson stated that “direct channels of communications with North Korea are open,” which was later contradicted by Trump, who tweeted, “I told Rex Tillerson, our wonderful Secretary of State, that he is wasting his time trying to negotiate with Rocket Man. Save your energy Rex, we’ll do what has to be done.” Abe has also said that North Korea uses negotiations “to earn time so that they could develop their nuclear technology.”
In short, Shinzo Abe’s strategy is more focused on using the North Korean issue to advance his narrow domestic and foreign policy goals rather than on responsible regional leadership. This may turn out to be a shrewd and successful approach for Japan since the results will probably favour Abe in the short-term; however, in the long-term, it could damage Japan’s image and have serious negative consequences for regional politics.
* Sandip Kumar Mishra
Associate Professor, Centre for East Asian Studies, School of International Studies, JNU, and Visiting Fellow, IPCS
The current exodus of Rohingya refugees from Myanmar is not new. But it exacerbates the long-standing waves of Rohingya outflow into Bangladesh, followed by mass return to Myanmar. What is new: the dimension of the problem has grown in size and complexity both inside Myanmar and for Bangladesh. Are there lessons to be learned?
By Janet Lim*
A comprehensive strategy is needed to deal with the latest cycle of humanitarian crisis to afflict Myanmar’s Rohingya minority community which has been going on for decades. The current crisis must be responded to quickly by providing immediate protection and assistance to those who have fled to Bangladesh. Immediate steps need to be taken to stop the violence inside Myanmar that is continuing to force people to flee.
Equally it must be recognised that a sustainable solution requires actions which are long term and must address the grievances of both the Rohingya and Rakhine populations. Development benefits must be provided to all communities in this impoverished state in Myanmar. The mistake in the past — forcing the Rohingya to return before the fundamental problems are resolved — should not be repeated.
Magnifying the Problem
In the past, massive outflows of more than 200,000 Rohingya had been provoked by military actions in 1978 and 1991/92 but they were quickly followed by bilateral agreements between the two governments for mass return, prompted no doubt by bilateral political considerations. However, the returns in the 1980s were enforced, without participation from any third party. In the 1990s, another mass return programme was agreed to bilaterally but the UNHCR intervened, with the states involved to assist in voluntary repatriation, promote voluntariness and provide reintegration assistance.
Nevertheless, the degree of voluntariness of the return was highly controversial. Conditions in the camps in Bangladesh were notoriously difficult as assistance was restricted in order to encourage return. At the same time situations inside Myanmar had not changed for the Rohingya in terms of their stateless status and continued denial of their basic rights.
The current massive outflow of Rohingya into Bangladesh has now reached more than half a million, the largest number yet to have fled into Bangladesh in any single outflow. It has been described as one of the largest refugee emergencies in the world today, with refugees arriving in extremely bad shape after suffering losses and extreme violence.
For now Bangladesh has reluctantly agreed to allow the refugees to be sheltered and assisted and for the existing two camps to be expanded, to alleviate the immediate humanitarian catastrophe.
In Bangladesh, the current outflow has magnified the problem of an already complex situation. Prior to the new outflow, Bangladesh has been hosting some 30,000 documented refugees remaining in two camps, after the return of some 230,000 refugees from the 1991/2 outflow.
Beyond the Emergency: Tackle Root Causes
However over the years, there continued to be Rohingya who made their way into Bangladesh, although they were no longer allowed into the refugee camps and have remained undocumented outside the camps. Their numbers are estimated to be some 300,000. Hence there are now a total of some 800,000 Rohingya in Bangladesh whose situation would need to be dealt with in its totality.
In Myanmar, the more recent outbreak of large scale inter-communal violence started in 2012 and subsequent episodes of violence in 2016 and 2017 have deepened tensions and insecurities even more. Some 140,000 Muslims remained displaced in squalid camps while others were forced to leave the country. The militant group known as ARSA has now made its presence felt, giving the military the reason to justify its brutal retaliatory actions.
Beyond the emergency phase concerted efforts by the two governments and the international community will be needed to find a long-term solution. However it will be necessary to have a different approach from the past.
First it is important to deal with the root causes inside Myanmar. The report of the officially appointed Rakhine Advisory Commission, headed by Kofi Annan, has provided recommendations which could be a road map for a comprehensive approach to sustainable return. Among its top recommendations are the urgent economic and social development of the Rakhine State and the resolution of the citizenship status for the Rohingya and other Muslims.
The recommendations in their totality provide the basis of a multi-prong approach that recognises the development, human rights and security dimensions of the current crisis. Clearly, it is unrealistic to expect these recommendations to be quickly implemented, but there should be no delay in starting their implementation.
Much would depend on the continued pressure of the international community as well as their support. The current level of international interest in the Rohingya issue, which was absent in the past, must be sustained.
Need for New Approach: Help Refugees and Host Communities
Bangladesh should not be left alone to shoulder the huge burden of hosting this biggest-ever refugee population on its soil. Significant financial support from the international community will be needed not only for the immediate humanitarian response, but considerable development aid must also be made available to provide assistance to both refugees and the local population.
This is the time to put into practice the new approach to assisting both refugees and host communities at the same time. Instead of establishing a parallel structure for refugees which would be required if they are confined to closed camps as in the past, the scarce resources should be used to create and expand infrastructure and services for both refugees and the local population.
There are no quick fixes to this humanitarian crisis, but a different approach than in the past could pave the way for a more realistic and sustainable solution in the long run.
*Janet Lim is a Visiting Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. She recently retired from the United Nations, after a 34-year career. She was most recently the UN Assistant High Commissioner (Operations) for Refugees.
