Quantcast
Channel: Eurasia Review
Viewing all 73339 articles
Browse latest View live

Pakistan: Countering Pax Indo-Americana In South Asia – OpEd

0
0

The announcement of US President Donald Trump’s Afghanistan and South Asia policy has generated a new and diverse debate among scholars and opinion makers. Trump is attempting to hold Pakistan responsible for all the failed policies of his predecessors. The word ‘safe havens’ frequently used by the US after each military failure on battle ground to provide itself a psychological relief. Its constant pursuit of partnering India in Afghanistan is also being associated with so called ‘safe haven’ in Pakistan by painting the causality.

However, Trump’s speech not only unveiled, to some extent, the hidden agenda behind retaining the troops in Afghanistan but also provided the reflection of policy aiming to achieve various strategic objectives in foreseeable future in region. One can easily identify the US’s lack of interest in long-lasting political settlement in Afghanistan till the time Afghan Taliban accepts America’s terms and conditions. US is emphasizing Pakistan to wage war with Afghan Taliban on larger level instead of asking Pakistan to persuade them for peace talks.

The drone attack on Mullah Mansoor was the practical illustration in favor of such arguments. Various drone attacks entirely sabotaged the peaceful dialogues with Taliban when Pakistan built the consensus inside for dialogues after painstaking attempts. In this way, US may find variety of reasons to justify and resume its presence in region regardless of the destructive consequences for regional people. This strategy can be helpful for America but it is totally catastrophic for regional peace and economic stability.

As far as the strategic objectives of US are concerned, by resuming presence for indefinite time in Afghanistan, we need to understand the repercussions by considering the broader political landscape of south Asia. First of all, it focuses to ensure Pakistan’s acceptance on status quo in Kashmir.

In this way, US will also provide imputes to developing partnership with India because it is the essence of Pax Indo-Americana. India is crucial for US to manage the strategic affairs in South Asia. Second, Pakistan’s nuclear capacity does not ever fit into the US’ calculated boxes. Trump many times shared his grave opposition against the strategic assets of Pakistan.

However, Pakistan managed to secure the status of nuclear state. For now, aiming at the deterrence capability, US want to influence the deterrence strategies and capacities of Pakistan by all means. Similarly, development of warheads on the part of Pakistan, in order to counter the Indian nuclear development, can also be one of the viable targets of the US.

Moreover, the rising influence of China and Russia in the region is hard to digest for America. Several American interests might be compromised in the region owing to this influence. US can best create obstacle for these development only with its substantial and indefinite presence in Afghanistan. Along with that, China’s great ambitions including One Belt One Road (OBOR) can be impeded via this presence. China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the part of OBOR initiative of China as it has started to operate actively in the region.

After the announcement of Trump, Pakistan set on to build regional consensus against America. It is a calculated move. Pakistan is now focusing on the mutual and regional relations as never before. Russia seems in the priority list and relations with China are already amicable. Counter strategy of Pakistan in diplomatic warfare appears to be effective and operational. Deterrence Strategies of Pakistan are already achieving the desired objectives. Above all, Pakistan’s plan to build the fence on Durand line is on its way which will not only serves to Pakistan but also impede the certain American ambitions.

Pakistan’s position does not allow it to entertain the American demands anymore. When it comes to nuclear developments, where Pakistan always remains conscious, it will not halt its any program. Especially when Pakistan is well aware with the fact that US is providing the generous cooperation to India for further armaments. After making the civil nuclear deal with India, supporting the membership in Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) and providing the advance technology for major arms build-up, Pakistan has made all the calculations to ensure the viability of the its strategic as well as economic interests vis-à-vis China and Afghanistan.

The Pre-Trump era has already provided the comprehensive insights of US affairs that will also assist comprehend the strategic picture in South Asia. Keeping in view the strategic moves and diplomatic initiatives, one can be realistically optimistic that Pakistan has orchestrated its policies to manage the Pax Indo-Americana in South Asia.

*Baber Ali Bhatti, Associated with Strategic Vision Institute (SVI), a think-tank based in Islamabad


Save the Planet, Now – OpEd

0
0

We are in the business of designing, making, and installing steam generators for industrial and electric utility applications. We feel that we are obliged to respond to the invitations for ”Save the Planet” to avoid “Global Warming” by specifying the common issues from a professional point of view. Steam generators derive their heat requirements from the combustion of fossil fuels – gas, oil, coal, etc. There are a number of environmental concerns connected with this process that we would like to address.

The Combustion Process

When a pure hydrocarbon burns, there are two products of this combustion. Water (H2O) is produced from the combustion (oxidation) of the hydrogen components. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is produced from the combustion of the carbon components. These two products are inescapable results of burning hydrocarbons. This oxidation releases heat, which is used in industrial processes, as well as in the home.

There is a continuing discussion on the effects of the increase of the carbon dioxide levels in the earth’s atmosphere. It is one factor blamed for the so called “greenhouse” effect, which predicts a warming of the earth’s atmosphere.

Carbon dioxide is a vital component of the earth’s atmosphere. From it the trees, and all green plants, derive the carbon they need to build leaves, roots, branches, and trunks. In this process they take in carbon dioxide, absorb the carbon, and release oxygen. In the burning of fossil fuels we are releasing the carbon stored up by the plants thousands or millions of years ago.

Fossil-fueled boilers for electric utilities and industry are one contributor to the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Another major factor in the increase of carbon dioxide levels is the destruction of the world’s great forests. This is doubly damaging.

Not only are the trees – that take the carbon dioxide from the air and return oxygen to it – being destroyed, but the process by which so much of them are being destroyed – by burning – is adding significant levels of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.

Automobiles, and other transportation users of petrochemical fuels, are also a significant factor in contributing carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.

It should be the policy of all boiler industry to design and supply boilers having the highest possible efficiency in the conversion of fuel to useful heat. In this way the addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere is reduced to the lowest possible level for a given amount of heat produced. There are designs of boiler that are less efficient in this process, and they are less expensive to produce. We should not supply such steam generators/ boilers.

Other Combustion Products

As well as the two major products of fossil fuel combustion, there is a range of other products of combustion that are released into the atmosphere. What these are depends mainly on the fuel used.

When coal or oil has sulphur as one of their constituents, then the products of their combustion will include oxides of sulphur. Unless removed from the flue gases before release into the atmosphere, these sulphur oxides can combine with moisture in the atmosphere to produce sulphuric acid and other undesirable sulphur compounds. Equipment is available to remove these oxides of sulphur from the flue gases. Companies supply such equipment at the request of the customer, where the sulphur level of the fuel calls for it.

Another undesirable group of potential combustion products are the oxides of nitrogen (NOx). If released into the atmosphere these may combine with moisture to form nitric and nitrous acids, thus contributing to “acid rain”. Designs of oil and gas burners are available which minimize the formation of these oxides, and these burners are supplied only when specified by the customer.

Fluidized Bed Combustors, Atmospheric/ Circular

In the specific case of coal, there is a combustion process known as the fluidized bed combustor, in which the fuel is mixed with limestone (calcium carbonate) and then burned. During the combustion process the sulphur combines with the calcium carbonate to form sulphates, which are then removed with the ash rather than being released to the atmosphere.

Many companies are in the development of fluidized bed combustors, either in “Atmospheric Bubbling, AFBC for short” or “Circular Fluidized Bed, CFB”. This technology is available in many international companies, who are managing a research programme to adapt this process to the specific lignite fuels.

Another advantage of this technology is that the combustion temperatures in the fluidized bed combustor are such that negligible amounts of the oxides of nitrogen are produced.

Integrated Gasification combined cycle/ IGCC

IGCC firing technology may be employed. Here in this technology you build a sort of refinery next to the future power plant to generate “Synthetic gas” from poor lignite then you fire this synthetic gas which comprises mainly H2 and CO, in the combined cycle power plants similar to natural firing.

We need to make extensive research if this technology would be applicable for our own indigenous low LHV lignite with high ash and high moisture content.

Municipal Refuse disposal and Other Wastes

Another environmental concern is with the growing volume of solid waste material from our cities and industries.

With a greater sensitivity for our environment, and an increasing scarcity of land, the practice of dumping such wastes in landfills is becoming less acceptable.

Techniques exist for the combustion of such waste material in the local thermal power plants in an efficient and environmentally viable manner.

This municipality refuse disposal process not only minimizes the landfill problem, but also produces heat which may be used in district heating schemes or for the production of electricity.

Municipalities are to solve their solid waste disposal problems through thermal power plants industry, which are ready to work with forward thinking municipalities in its application.

Nuclear Power

One major source of electric utility power generation produces no carbon dioxide release into the atmosphere. This source derives its heat from the controlled disintegration of nuclear fuel in a nuclear reactor. This heat is then transferred to water to produce steam to drive turbines.

Although there are waste products of the nuclear reaction that require considerable care in their handling, storage, and disposal, many logically thinking people agree that nuclear power offers the best solution for long term thermal power production, with the minimum effect on our environment.

In the 4th generation plants there is maximized security and minimized waste. Local engineering capability is to be employed at the highest level in order to absorb the technology for best use in national advantage.

Safety

The combustion processes used in these boilers involve high volumetric heat release rates and intense flames. Careful design and meticulous attention to detail are required to operate this equipment safely. Accurate and continuous measurement, monitoring and control are essential to operate within the design parameters.

Utilities should use only the most up to date, microprocessor controls and instrumentation for these tasks. There are suppliers for the equipment which will operate on a continuous basis completely automatically, with a minimum of operator monitoring, thus ensuring maximum efficiency and safety in its operation.

All steam generating boilers contain steam at high pressure. The integrity of the pressure bearing components is of vital importance to the safety of operating personnel.

All boilers should be designed, built, and tested in accordance with the stringent requirements of the Boiler and Pressure Vessel Codes of European Union, as well as the American Society of Mechanical Engineers. ASME application has advantage to work overseas.

The world has a lot of coal, but right now carbon capture and sequestration is not commercially viable, and no guarantee it will be in the future. Solar and wind plants have long term availability problem. Natural gas has national security implications and does emit CO2 which creates global warming.

The primary energy sources for new capacity and energy efficiency measures need to be chosen using some kind of quantitative risk-assessment scheme that most likely will result in a diverse energy mix that includes nuclear.

We are really not sure how to get around/adapt to the global climate change problem without some drastic changes, even if nuclear energy is implemented.

Finally

Although every action we take, every time we move or speak, has some effect on the environment, it is the major effects that must be addressed if we are to act as responsible citizens of an all-too-fragile world.

We should design and supply which does have an appreciable effect on the environment around us. It should be our policy and our concern that any impact on the environment be minimized as best we know how.

We should continue to apply the best technical solutions to these concerns, with maximized local engineering capability and make best use of our local fuel resources. We will not compromise our designs with inefficient solutions when we know a better way. We should work with our customers and the community to provide the cleanest, safest, most up to date technology in the equipment that we supply. We are citizens of this world and intend to act responsibly in it.

From The Ground Up – OpEd

0
0

On a recent Friday at the Afghan Peace Volunteers‘ (APV) Borderfree Center, here in Kabul, thirty mothers sat cross-legged along the walls of a large meeting room. Masoumah, who co-coordinates the Center’s “Street Kids School” project, had invited the mothers to a parents meeting. Burka-clad women who wore the veil over their faces looked identical to me, but Masoumah called each mother by name, inviting the mothers, one by one, to speak about difficulties they faced. From inside the netted opening of a burka, we heard soft voices and, sometimes, sheer despair. Others who weren’t wearing burkas also spoke gravely. Their eyes expressed pain and misery, and some quietly wept. Often a woman’s voice would break, and she would have to pause before she could continue

“I have debts that I cannot pay,” whispered the first woman

“My children and I are always moving from place to place. I don’t know what will happen.”

“I am afraid we will die in an explosion.”

“My husband is paralyzed and cannot work. We have no money for food, for fuel.”

“My husband is old and sick. We have no medicine.”

“I cannot feed my children.”

“How will we live through the winter?”

“I have pains throughout my whole body.”

“I feel hopeless.”

“I feel depressed, and I am always worried.”

“I feel that I’m losing my mind.”

The mothers’ travails echo across Afghanistan, where “one-third of the population lives below the poverty line (earning less than $2 a day) and a further 50 percent are barely above this.” Much of the suffering voiced was common: most of the women had to support their families as they moved from house to house, not being able to come up with the rent for a more permanent space, and many women experienced severe body pains, often a result of chronic stress.

Last week, our friend Turpekai visited the Borderfree Center and spoke with dismay about her family’s well having gone dry. Later that morning, Inaam, one of the students in the “Street Kids School,” said that his family faces the same problem. Formerly, wells dug to depths of 20 to 30 meters were sufficient to reach the water table. But now, with the water table dropping an average of one meter a year, new wells must be dug to depths of 80 meters or more. Inflowing refugees create increased demands on the water table in times of drought and so do the extravagant water needs of an occupying military, and the world’s largest fortified embassy, that can dig as deep for water as it wants. Families living on less than $2 a day have little wherewithal to dig deep wells or begin paying for water. The water has been lost to war.

Sarah Ball, a nurse from Chicago, arrived in Kabul one week ago. Together we visited the Emergency Surgical Center for Victims of War, feeling acutely grateful for an opportunity to donate blood and hear an update from one of their logistical coordinators about new circumstances they encounter in Kabul.

In past visits to Kabul, staff at the Emergency Hospital would point happily to their volleyball court, the place where they could find diversion and release from tensions inherent in their life saving work. Now, as an average of two “mass casualties” happen each week, often involving many dozens of patients severely injured by war, a triage unit has replaced the volleyball court. Kabul, formerly one of the safest places in Afghanistan, has now become one of the most dangerous.

The Taliban and other armed groups have vowed to continue fighting as long as the U.S. continues to occupy Afghan land, to wage attacks on Afghans and supply weapons to the various fighting factions. The United States maintains nine major bases in Afghanistan and many smaller forward operating bases.

Following President Trump’s announcement of an increase in U.S. troops being sent to Afghanistan, the Washington Post reported that “Direct U.S. spending on the war in Afghanistan will rise to approximately $840.7 billion if the president’s fiscal year 2018 budget is approved.”

What on earth have they accomplished?!

Masoumah asked each mother a second question: What are you thankful for? The atmosphere became a little less grim as many of the mothers said they were grateful for their children. Beholding the lively, bright and beautiful youngsters who fill the Borderfree Center each Friday, I could well understand their gratitude. The following day, we joined two dozen young girls living in a squalid refugee camp. Crowded into a small makeshift classroom with a mud floor, our friend Nematullah taught a two-hour class focused on forming peace circles. The little girls were radiant, exuberant and eager for better futures. Nematullah later told us that all their families are internally displaced, many because of war.

I feel deeply moved by the commitment my young friends have made to reject wars and dominance, preferring instead to live simply, share resources, and help protect the environment.

Zarghuna works full-time to coordinate projects at the Border Free Center. She and Masoumah feel passionately committed to social change which they believe will be organized “from the ground up.” I showed Zarghuna a Voices accounting sheet tallying donations entrusted to us for the Street Kids School and The Duvet Project. I wanted to assure her of grass roots support from people giving what they can. “Big amounts of money coming from the U.S. military destroys us,” Zarghuna said. “But small amounts that are given to the people can help change lives and make them a little better.”

Un-Elected Un-Appointed Court Magistrates/Law Clerks/Staff Undermine US Judiciary – OpEd

0
0

Most Americans are aware that there are three branches in the U.S. Government – the Legislative, The Executive, and the Judiciary.

Those same Americans have also heard that the legislative and executive branches are completely and totally vulnerable to outside money powers and lobbying groups which actively seek to undercut the wishes and will of the average American voter by sponsoring and essentially “bribing” the two former named bodies of American government, in order to get what they want within U.S. domestic and foreign policy.

However, few Americans are able to grasp the concept that the American judiciary (federal, state and local) are also equally susceptible to this type of bribery, lobbying and institutionalized corruption through their “Achilles Heel” – the un-elected, un-appointed, and generally life serving court magistrates, law clerks, and administrative staff, that heavily populate and run the American judicial system.

These court officers and staff literally run amok in America’s courts, issuing decisions and deciding what happens to lawyers and litigants each and every day, with little to no scrutiny paid to them, their daily activities, who they know and talk to, and who they get bribed/paid by, in order to affect and influence case outcomes and decisions.

Nearly all of the 50 states in America have some type of Commission on Judicial Conduct, where supposedly average American citizens can file complaints against corrupt judges who routinely flout the law, violate administrative and judicial (substantive and procedural) due process, and who otherwise act and engage in conduct and behavior which smacks loudly of corruption, cronyism, and the fundamental deprivation of civil rights and liberties, all under the color of law and authority.

But these same state commissions on judicial conduct are notorious for routinely rubber stamping “form dismissal” letters of these citizen complaints, no matter how serious the allegations, or well-documented with tangible evidence of misconduct/evidence tampering/ obstruction of justice/denial of due process that they are, because these commissions will often state that they “do not have jurisdiction over magistrates, law clerks and court staff” because those individuals are “not judges,” and thereby fall out of the paradigm of what they were constituted by the American citizenry to address.

Herein lies the rub – and herein lies the secret “backdoor” for organized crime, foreign and domestic intelligence services, private investigators, criminals, and other organized (or disorganized) corrupting elements to do their dirty work.

Routinely, and seemingly daily, these out of control, unregulated, and unsupervised court magistrates, law clerks, and court administrative staff that infest our nation’s federal, state, local, family, civil, and criminal courts will:

(1) lose your motion papers;

(2) alter your motion papers;

(3) remove or tamper with evidence;

(4) write court decisions without the knowledge or permission of their judge bosses, and then get them signed off surreptitiously under the judge’s name;

(5) take money bribes, pecuniary promises, make side deals, and meet with people or individuals representing opposing sides in an illegal and unethical fashion, in order to affect or influence the case outcome;

(6) engage in improper and illicit sexual relationships with litigants, their children or family members, and lawyers to influence case decisions and outcomes;

(7) hide important information from judges;

(8) retaliate against disfavored or unpopular (or less monied) litigants/lawyers who complain about, or challenge, them;

(9) delay or derail court dates, proceedings, and hearings; and

(10) all in all completely undermine and pollute the third and arguably most important branch of the United States government, all under the watchful eye of the government.

Thus, it is no surprise when the Federal Bureau of Investigation (which has been accused of collaborating with these court-parasites under their outlawed COINTELPRO – now called COPS – program to target/retaliate against certain disfavored lawyers/litigants) routinely tell American citizen complainants that they can not investigate, or open up a complaint when obvious judicial corruption or misconduct exists, because they “quite simply have no jurisdiction over judges,” who are supposed to be nuetral and impartial arbiters of American justice, under the color of law and authority.

Similarly, other law enforcement and regulatory agencies of the U.S. Government also routinely tell American citizen complainants that there is “nothing that they can do” when confronted with these types of legal abuses emanating from the federal, state and local government in this third judicial branch, because again, “they do not have jurisdiction.”

Unfortunately today this means that well-funded and well organized criminal groups, organizations, movements, foreign and domestic intelligence agencies, terrorists, and other monied enemies of the American government and its people are also aware of this, and take full advantage of this weakness to exploit it for their own political and financial gain.

This is why horrific groups and organizations seem to keep getting away with their crimes in broad and open daylight, such as global and domestic child pornographers and pedophile child traffickers, illegal and illicit drug traffickers and narcotics purveyors, organized crime, terrorists, illegal arms/weapons traffickers and gun runners, illegal alien smuggling rings, “coyotes” and other human slave traffickers, and other well funded, billion dollar illegal entities.

The American people need to realize and recognize that organized judicial corruption and misconduct is indeed a multi-variate National Security risk and problem, as it helps judges avoid accountability and responsibility, and keeps the trillion dollar organized criminal, terrorist and espionage groups around the world in thriving and expanding business, all at the expense of the average American citizen, voter, and taxpayer.

And it is now high-time for this type of organized and institutionalized form of government corruption to end, and end now.

The American people need to demand that these un-elected, un-appointed, life-serving, and thoroughly corrupted court magistrates, law clerks and court administrative staff be subject to the same (if not more) scrutiny, regulation, discipline, supervision, and monitoring that their judge bosses seem to be put through, for the sake of the United States of America, and its national security and day to day integrity.

Just Grant Them The Nationality – OpEd

0
0

An item in this paper the other day reflected upon some of the hardships and challenges facing expatriates born and raised in this country, but made to feel that they did not belong. An estimated two million expatriates have been born in this country, many the children of second- and third-generation expatriates who have also been born here. This is the story of one of them.

Wasim B. has been in this country for over 40 years. He came here from Pakistan at the age of three with his parents, and older siblings. Over the years Wasim was educated in Saudi schools at a time when anyone could take advantage of the opportunity for learning, and today he is dependably taking care of the business of an elderly Saudi family here in Jeddah. His honest association with this family since his youth has resulted in him being entrusted with all their financial affairs.

But Wasim has a problem. While his father some 35 years ago managed to apply for and get citizenship for his elder brothers and sisters, Wasim’s case was somehow delayed due to his young age. With the passage of time, his father died, and Wasim’s application for citizenship slowly went out the window.

For a while, it was not much of a bother. But as he got older and wanted to start his own family, his status as an alien complicated getting approval, among a host of other problems. And as citizenship laws became more restrictive, his desire to obtain Saudi nationality and settle here permanently became more fraught with uncertainty.

Once his children were of school age, the issue of government schools was out of the question. And today, upon his son’s graduation from the Pakistani school, Wasim faces a dilemma as to what to do with his offspring. With our universities restricting admission to foreigners, he is understandably concerned, as he does not relish sending his son abroad, even to Pakistan where Wasim’s family ties have eroded over the decades and where his son would be a stranger in the culture he would be thrust into.

Wasim is but one of a multitude of fathers and mothers in similar situations. From the continents of the West to the far corners of Asia, their forefathers at one time moved to this country. It was not the lure of wealth or the prospect of making it big during the oil boom years. Many had been here prior to that era. Instead, most had made the perilous journey then in their quest to live in the proximity of the two holy cities.

They find themselves today facing gut-wrenching situations requiring decisions that often split the family apart. They have lived as Saudis, learned as Saudis, worked as Saudis, and prayed as Saudis, but they are not Saudis. And they are not accepted as Saudis. And the bureaucratic challenges in gaining Saudi citizenship are not encouraging for most of these people.

Many of them today cannot think of another land to call home. Even the lands of their ancestry would seem alien to their locally homegrown family; the culture, the language, the food, and just about everything else! And as their children come of age and require further education or jobs, some will reluctantly attempt to pack up and re-enter their own societies, while others will grudgingly make plans to move westwards to more alien cultures.

I pose this question to the authorities. Would it not be just and right to grant those facing such uncertainties and who wish so, the rights and benefits of full citizenship? It would also boost Vision 2030 with investment being applied domestically by new immigrants, rather than swept away in remittances elsewhere.

Why not absorb this rich talent and wealth within our own land rather than see it lost to foreign lands? To increase the diversity within our society and to enhance it with a whole host of subcultures would serve the nation well. The mindset that we must preserve the heritage of this country through the restricting of bloodlines has got to change.

Within families, inbreeding often spells the beginning of extinction and doom. Within nations, it can only lead to a stifling of growth and enrichment.

This article was published by the Saudi Gazette.

Trump Expected To Nominate Powell To Replace Yellen – OpEd

0
0

By Tho Bishop*

In the end Donald Trump will get what he wanted, a “low interest rate person” who also happened to be a “Republican.” Jerome Powell is expected to replace Janet Yellen in an announcement later this week. If so, this means Trump will ensure that, while the stationary at the Eccles Building will change, the monetary policy guiding it likely will not.

The fact that, in naming Powell, Trump is picking an Obama-appointed Fed Governor for his most important nominations is itself quite fitting. While we have long known that bad monetary policy is bipartisan, Powell’s nomination serves as a particularly useful illustration of how little has changed in Washington since the Bush Administration.

Of course, just as Trump received his loudest applause from Washington for doing his best impersonation of his two predecessors, the President is already being praised for making a “grown up” decision when it comes to the Fed. While his awareness optics likely prevented him from ever truly considering reappointing Janet Yellen –—the preferred choice of the DC and NY — Powell’s nomination ensures that Trump’s scathing criticism of the monetary orthodox has been predictably discarded alongside a number of his most exciting campaign promises.

Now we will see how else Trump squanders his historic opportunity to rearrange the Fed. The administration has signaled that its plans to form a policy consensus with its remaining Fed choices – as opposed to opening FOMC meetings into some truly spirited debate.

This likely means that John Allison, whose resume as head of BB&T during the financial crisis and an admirer of Mises and Hayek made him the best fit for Candidate Trump’s rhetoric, is unlikely to be seriously considered for anything. Of course given the dangerous world the Fed finds itself in, it’s likely for the best that Allison emulates the example of Ludwig von Mises who, when offered a prestigious bank position in the 1929, famously said, “a great crash is coming, and I don’t want my name in any way connected with it.”

Going forward, it will be interesting to see how Republicans in the House and Senate proceed. For years now, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling has been pushing Fed reform which would have included requiring the Fed to adopted rule-based monetary policy. While this would have complimented the nomination of John Taylor or Kevin Warsh, Powell has made it clear that he opposes such limits being placed on the Fed.

Going forward, we should expect to see the Fed continue its tediously slow normalization of its balance sheet – what George Selgin has cleverly dubbed Operation SNAIL. Whether the Fed continues with its projected interest rate hike in December may itself depend on Congress. The legislature’s knack for kicking the budgetary can down the road as led to yet another “fiscal cliff” scenario at the end of the year. While we can be ensured that outcome will be more spending (and more debt), the bout of yet another round of arbitrary drama may give the Fed enough of an excuse to follow their lead and hold off until 2018.

About the author:
*Tho Bishop
directs the Mises Institute’s social media marketing (e.g., twitter, facebook, instagram), and can assist with questions from the press.

Source:
This article was published by the Mises Institute

Polanski Honored By His Own, Again – OpEd

0
0

Roman Polanski is a child rapist beloved by Hollywood and the entertainment industry worldwide. On October 30, he was honored at an extravaganza in Paris for his wonderful work.

Polanski is accused of molesting four women—the latest of which is an actress who last month said he raped her when she was 15. Even he acknowledges that he drugged and raped a 13-year-old in the 1970s.

Does it matter to Polanski’s colleagues that he is a molester? Not many. According to the New York Times, at Monday’s event film director Costa-Gavras rushed to defend Polanski: He said it was not the business of his organization, Cinémathèque, to act as an “arbiter of morality”; his group sponsored the event.

Costa-Gavras, however, has a record of being an “arbiter of morality.” He took it upon himself in 2003 to make a movie, “Amen,” that told out-and-out lies about the Catholic Church’s role during the Holocaust. He blamed the Church for being “silent” about the Nazi genocide—a position that has been widely and authoritatively discredited—and even created a fictional character, a Jesuit priest, to promote his propaganda.

No one can blame Costa-Gavras for being silent about his rapist buddy. No, he has long been on Polanski’s side. In 2009, he was one of more than 100 prominent filmmakers, actors, producers, and technicians who signed a petition defending the rights of the child rapist. The petition was organized by serial sexual abuser Harvey Weinstein.

Child abuser Woody Allen signed the petition in defense of Polanski, as did Pedro Almodovar and Martin Scorsese, all of whom have made movies attacking the Catholic Church.

Polanski was arrested in September 2009 for what he did in 1977. He got a 13-year-old girl drunk, forced her to take a Quaalude with champagne, and then tried to rape her in a Jacuzzi. She resisted. Then he followed her into a bedroom, kissed her, and performed oral sex on her. Then he had intercourse with her. Then he had anal sex with her.

And what did the Hollywood crowd and their European counterparts do when Polanski was arrested? They signed a petition in his defense. Weinstein said, “We are calling upon every filmmaker we can to help fix this terrible situation.” The “terrible situation” was not sodomizing a girl; it was restrictions on Polanski’s travel plans.

Weinstein garnered plenty of support for his fellow molester. “Obviously, my sympathies are with Roman,” said Robert Towne, winner of an Oscar for his role in “Chinatown.” He added, “I have great respect and affection for him.”

Debra Winger, the Zurich Film Festival Jury President, said of Polanski at the time, “We stand by and await his release and his next masterwork.” Her organization even blasted Switzerland for arresting Polanski, accusing it of “philistine collusion.” In other words, those who object to a Hollywood mogul molesting a child have no respect for the arts.

Weinstein gave cover to these stars by writing an op-ed at the time referring to what Polanski did as a “so-called crime.” What he was saying is that it is a “so-called crime” to ply a child with alcohol and drugs, and then rape her orally, vaginally, and anally. Whoopi Goldberg agreed, saying “I don’t believe it was ‘rape-rape.'”

This is a window into the mind of Hollywood. They all criticized molesting priests, but unlike virtually all Catholics who also condemned the offending clergymen, the celebrities continue to be quite at home defending sexual abusers in their own ranks.

No one at the time of Polanski’s arrest explained the Hollywood mind better than Weinstein. Referring to the outpouring of support for his beleaguered friend, he said, “Hollywood has the best moral compass, because it has compassion.” It sure does—for the rapist, that is.

Balfour’s Shadow: A Century Of British Support For Zionism And Israel – Book Review

0
0

In November this year, the British Conservative Party and the Zionists will commemorate the centenary of the Balfour Declaration (BD). For the Palestinians and the Arabs in general, it should be a day of mourning. No historical document has screwed up a region such as Lord Balfour’s letter to the Zionist Lord Rothschild promising him a “national home for the Jewish people.”

It opened the doors of a colonization and ethnic cleansing process in Palestine that has been going on ever since. This ongoing dispossession process has not only ruined Palestinian society but led to the Ghettoization of an entire people. Together with the infamous Sykes-Picot Agreement, both papers have screwed up the whole Middle East.
David Cronin is a journalist specializing in European politics. His book “Europe’s Alliance With Israel: Aiding the Occupation” was extremely useful in providing arguments against Israel’s further privileging within the European Union.1 The author demonstrated how the EU over the years has been accommodating to Israel’s illegal occupation. “The European Union´s cowardice towards Israel is in stark contrast to the robust position it has taken when major atrocities have occurred in other conflicts.”

David Cronin, Balfour's Shadow. A Century of British Support for Zionism and Israel, Pluto 2017.
David Cronin, Balfour’s Shadow. A Century of British Support for Zionism and Israel, Pluto 2017.

It is beyond doubt that Israel had seen the light of day without the rhetorical support and the firm hand of the British empire, writes David Cronin.”The foundations of Israel were laid in London.” Where the Brits left off, the US took over in their unwavering and blind support of the Jewish state. In nine chapters, the author shows the full support of the United Kingdom in whatever the Israeli government did. In here, Tony Blair was extraordinarily reckless and vicious. The day Tony Blair left office, his pal George W. Bush appointed him “peace envoy” to the Middle East, which was cynical and obscene.

Since the days of Balfour, they have been partners in crime and staunch supporters of Zionism. William Hague called it the party’s “unbroken threat.” Perhaps the current British Prime Minister Theresa May will reaffirm this “bond” during the dinner with Benjamin Netanyahu. It’s a low-key celebration between May and Netanyahu. Jeremy Corbyn declined the invitation.

The author demonstrates, “Balfour and his peers were fully aware that the pursuit of Zionist objectives endangered the fundamental rights of Palestinians, regardless of the caveats inserted into his declaration.” For the Jews, the BD was a turning point in their history and led to the establishment of Israel, for the Palestinian people, however, it meant dispossession, displacement, exile, the destruction of their society, and it laid the groundwork for the Nakba that is continuing to this day. They became foreigners in their own country.

At the time of Balfour, conspiracy theories about Jewish influence and anti-Semitic attitudes were common among parts of the ruling class. Balfour was “an anti-Semite” and did not act benevolently towards the Jewish people, on the contrary, Balfour’s backing of the Zionist settlement movement in Palestine seemed motivated by his desire to “see Europe emptied of Jews,” writes Cronin.

The book focuses on the support of the Zionist colonization during British rule between the two World Wars and beyond up to the current political support for the Zionist regime. For the Brits, much was at stake in the Middle East. The region had Oil in abundance, the Suez Canal was strategically important, and Israel could serve as a colonial outpost and a bulwark against barbarism, as Theodor Herzl put it.

In its oppression of the Palestinians, the Israeli government often refers to British Mandate law, what so-called administrative detention or collective punishment measures are concerned. Although the US took over, Britain didn’t let go. They supported the country with military hardware and in the field of financial/corporate interests. Up to date, the United Kingdom belongs to Israel’s staunchest supporters.

The book presents a thorough examination of the Balfour legacy. Although Cronin presents the facts passionately, it’s still a meticulous study. One can get passionate about the subject if one evaluates what the BD has done to the People of Palestine. This Declaration is a call for repairing the injustice, and Cronin contributed a lot to that.

Notes:
1. http://between-the-lines-ludwig-watzal.blogspot.de/2011/04/europes-alliance-with-israel-aiding.html


How France Pre-Empted Balfour, And Why He Came To Palestine – OpEd

0
0

For so historic a document, the letter that has come to be known as the Balfour Declaration is surprisingly, even starkly, simple.  It is difficult to believe that the British Foreign Office in the very heyday of British imperialism did not run to crested notepaper.  Yet the letter from foreign secretary Lord Balfour to one of the leading figures in Britain’s Jewish community, Lord Rothschild, is a small sheet of paper with the words “Foreign Office” typed just above the date, November 2nd, 1917.

Asking Rothschild to “bring this declaration to the knowledge of the Zionist Federation”, the declaration in question ran:

“His Majesty’s Government view with favour the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people, and will use their best endeavours to facilitate the achievement of this object, it being clearly understood that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine, or the rights and political status enjoyed by Jews in any other country.”

Subsequent events are too well known to require elaboration.  Following the Great War, the League of Nations endorsed an Anglo-French agreement to dismember the Ottoman empire, assigning control of the territories mainly to the two colonial powers.  The British government was mandated to take over the whole region then known as Palestine, and to put into effect its desire, as expressed in the Balfour Declaration, to establish there a national home for the Jewish people.

The declaration has come to be remembered as either “one of the greatest acts of Western statesmanship in the 20th century” (vide British parliamentarian Richard Crossman) or “the single most destructive political document on the Middle East in the 20th century” (according to Palestinian scholar-activist Walid Khalidi).   What is not generally known is that Britain’s Balfour Declaration was preceded – and may have been kick-started – by a letter from the head of France’s foreign office, Jules Cambon, issued on the authority of French prime minister, Alexandre Ribot.

On June 4, 1917, Nahum Sokolow, secretary-general of the World Zionist Organization, received the following:

“You kindly explained to me your project to develop Jewish colonization in Palestine.  You believe that, given favourable circumstances, and with the independence of the Holy Places assured, it would be an act of justice and reparation to help in the rebirth, under the protection of the Allied Powers, of Jewish nationality in the land from which the people of Israel were exiled so many centuries ago. The French government, which entered the current war to defend a people unjustly attacked, and which continues the struggle to ensure the victory of right over might, can feel nothing but sympathy for your cause, the success of which is linked to that of the Allies. I am happy to give you such an assurance.”

As Chaim Weizmann’s biographer Jehuda Reinharz has noted, the Cambon letter “in content and form was much more favorable to the Zionists than the watered-down formula of the Balfour Declaration” that followed it. The French accepted a rationale for the renaissance of the Jewish people in terms of “justice” and “reparation,” and acknowledged the historical Jewish ties to the land. The letter bound Zionism to the cause of all the Allies.

Historians Andrew and Kanya-Forstner, praising Nahum Sokolow’s diplomatic skills in circumventing the strong anti-Zionist feeling within official French government circles, judged that “the Quai d’Orsay had been skilfully and decisively out-maneuvered.”  French objections to a possible British declaration had been neutralized.

“Our purpose,” explained Sokolow, looking ahead, “is to receive from the [British] government a general short approval of the same kind as that which I have been successful in getting from the French government.”

And indeed as soon as he could Sokolow deposited the Cambon letter at the British foreign office, where it stimulated a spirit of competition. British officials who sympathized with Zionism now urged that Britain “go as far as the French.”

From whichever side of the fence one regards the events of 1917 and beyond, it seems clear that France shares with Britain both the bouquets and the brickbats.

Although the British Mandate for Palestine did not come into force until September 1922, its terms were drawn up in April 1920.  As soon as they became known, Arab riots broke out in Jaffa.  This affected British public opinion, and voices began to be raised opposing the whole enterprise, and especially its likely cost. An All-Arab Congress, meeting in Geneva in July and August 1921, demanded all-Arab self-government for Palestine.  Back in Britain, although a motion to repeal the Declaration failed in the House of Commons, it won a majority in the House of Lords.

This growing opposition gave impetus to the idea that Lord Balfour should visit Palestine and that, through him, the world could be shown what had been achieved since his historic letter.  Chaim Weizmann arranged for Balfour to conduct the opening ceremony of the Hebrew University on April 1, 1925.  In March Lord Balfour’s party travelled by ship to Cairo, and from there took the train to the Holy Land.  As early as the 1920s Palestine Railways had a line running from Egypt via Lydda and Tel Aviv as far as Haifa.

On the appointed day a vast crowd assembled on Mount Scopus.  “A new era has begun,” said Balfour.  “The great cultural genius that came to an end, and that had been dormant for so many years, is now going to be renewed.”  A long list of diplomats and academics who attended the ceremony described it in glowing terms.

The fact that the historic event had been recorded on film seemed to pass from the public consciousness.  It was only in 2013 that film researcher Yaakov Gross rediscovered the rare footage, and published it on YouTube.  In fact a cameraman, Kamil Suago, funded by the French-Jewish banker Albert Kahan, accompanied Lord Balfour throughout his travels in Palestine.   Balfour was greeted everywhere by enthusiastic crowds, and his visit was adjudged an outstanding success.  It confirmed the British government’s determination to exercise its Mandate.

Despite Britain’s eventual failure to fulfil the hopes set out in the Balfour Declaration, the British government continues to endorse the part it played in the eventual emergence of the State of Israel.  In May 2017 a petition to Parliament called on the government to “apologise to the Palestinian people” over the Balfour Declaration because the UK’s colonial policy had caused “mass displacement” and injustice.  The petition failed to gather sufficient signatures to trigger a parliamentary debate, but nonetheless the Government issued a formal response:  “The Balfour Declaration is an historic statement for which HMG does not intend to apologise.  We are proud of our role in creating the State of Israel. The task now is to encourage moves towards peace.”

As an earnest of Britain’s stance, Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, when in the UK in February 2017, was invited by prime minister Theresa May to attend the centenary celebrations in London.

Trump Orders Immigrants Crackdown After New York Terror Attack

0
0

(RFE/RL) — U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled a major crackdown on immigration after police detained an Uzbek man suspected of mowing down dozens of people on a New York City bicycle path, killing eight and injuring several others.

Calling the attacker a “terrorist,” Trump on November 1 said he would work with Congress to “immediately” terminate a Green Card visa program under which the suspect legally entered the United States in 2010.

He also ordered more “extreme vetting” of immigrants, requiring deeper information during the screening process with U.S. officials, such as details on the person’s travels for the previous decade.

Trump said that “we will take all necessary steps to protect our people” from “these animals.”

The moves come after police identified a 29-year-old Uzbek national named Sayfullo Saipov as the man who drove a rented pickup truck into people on a New York City bicycle path on October 31.

The deadly incident, described by Trump and other officials as a “terrorist attack,” followed a series of attacks in major European cities in which suspected Islamist militants have mowed people down with cars or trucks.

It took place in Lower Manhattan, close to the spot where the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center stood before Al-Qaeda terrorists brought them down with hijacked jets in the September 11, 2011, terror attacks.

Police sources in New York identified the suspect as a 29-year-old Uzbek national named Sayfullo Saipov, who came to the United States legally in 2010.

A source in Uzbekistan’s security services told RFE/RL’s Uzbek Service that Saipov’s mother, father, and 17-year-old sister were being questioned in the Central Asian country on November 1. The source was not authorized to speak publicly about the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity.

That investigation was launched after Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev said in a statement posted to the Foreign Ministry’s website on November 1 that his government “is ready to use all forces and resources to help in the investigation of this act of terror.”

New York police said the suspect, whom they shot and detained at the scene, used a rented pickup truck to drive into pedestrians and cyclists on a bike path close to the Hudson River in a busy part of Manhattan.

Eyewitnesses said the suspect shouted out “Allahu Akbar” or “God is greatest” after crashing the truck into pedestrians and a school bus.

New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo said that Saipov is the only suspect in what appeared to be a “lone wolf” attack.

Cuomo told CNN that Saipov was “associated with ISIS, and he was radicalized domestically” in the United States. ISIS is a common acronym used for the extremist group Islamic State (IS).

“After he came to the United States is when he started to become informed about ISIS and radical Islamic tactics,” Cuomo said. “We have no evidence yet of associations or a continuing plot or associated plots, and our only evidence to date is that this was an isolated incident that he himself performed.”

The governor also confirmed earlier U.S. media reports that “a note” referring to IS militants was found at the scene. U.S. media reports said the note was written in Arabic and pledged allegiance to IS.

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said the incident was “an act of terror, and a particularly cowardly act of terror, aimed at innocent civilians, aimed at people going about their lives who had no idea what was about to hit them.”

An Uzbek immigrant in the United States who said he knows Saipov, Mirrakhmat Muminov, told RFE/RL that Saipov lived near the city of Stow, Ohio from 2011 to 2013 before moving to Florida in 2013.

Muminov said Saipov worked for many years as a truck driver.

He said Saipov has a wife and two children and is a native of Tashkent. He described the suspect as somewhat “aggressive” but said he was not very religious before he went to Florida.

Muminov said he thinks Saipov became more radical because he was getting information from Islamic extremists through the Internet.

Still, Muminov said no one thought Saipov was capable of committing a terrorist attack.

He said he is “shocked” by news reports about the attack and can’t imagine what kind “of monsters were in his head.”

Uber said in a statement that Saipov had worked as a driver for the ride service before the attack. The company said it was “horrified by this senseless act of violence” and has banned Saipov from the Uber app.

Saipov had been reportedly arrested in Missouri last year over a traffic fine.

Authorities said five Argentinians and one Belgian were among the eight people killed in the attack.

At least 11 people were hospitalized with injuries described as serious but not life-threatening, according to emergency services.

Police said the suspect used a truck rented from a New Jersey Home Depot hardware store in his rampage, and after crashing the vehicle, he emerged wielding what they said were fake guns.

Video posted by NBCNewYork.com showed Saipov after crashing the truck running through traffic with what appeared to be a BB gun and paintball gun.

Authorities said police took Saipov into custody and transported him to New York’s Bellevue Hospital for treatment of an injury to the abdomen that was not deemed to be life-threatening.

Cuomo ordered increased security at New York’s airports, bridges, tunnels, and mass transit systems, and directed that the lights on the spire of One World Trade Center be lit in red, white, and blue in honor of “freedom and democracy.”

But Cuomo said there was no information about a credible threat of further attacks, saying the heightened security measures were precautionary.

De Blasio said the New York City Marathon would go ahead as scheduled on November 5 and that the thousands of runners who take part would be “well protected.”

Similar To Attacks In Europe

Similar attacks by Islamic extremists using vehicles to crash into pedestrians have killed dozens of people in Europe during the last 16 months.

A Somali-born student at Ohio State University — described by authorities as an Islamic extremist inspired by IS — also carried out a vehicle attack in Ohio in November 2016 but did not kill anyone.

In July 2016, a man drove a large truck into a crowd celebrating Bastille Day in the French city of Nice, killing 86 people and injuring hundreds more. The IS group claimed responsibility for the attack.

Five months later, a Tunisian asylum seeker who had pledged allegiance to IS plowed a truck into a crowded Christmas market in central Berlin, killing 12 people and injuring 48.

In April of this year, a failed asylum seeker from Uzbekistan careened down a busy street in a truck in central Stockholm, crashing into a department store and killing three people in what the prime minister called a terrorist attack.

And on August 17, a driver rammed his van into crowds in the heart of Barcelona, killing 13 people, in an attack authorities said was carried out by suspected Islamist militants.

Uzbek security officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media, told RFE/RL that Saipov’s parents live in Tashkent’s Uchtepa district and are merchants at the city’s Bektopi market.

The officials in Uzbekistan, where the state’s concern about Islamic extremism have increased as citizens of the predominantly Muslim former Soviet republic have traveled to Afghanistan and the Middle East to fight alongside Islamic extremists, said the family was not known to be particularly religious.

Referring to the suspect as a “terrorist,” Trump said he had come to the United States under a program widely known as the Green Card lottery, in which a limited number of visas are granted to people from countries with low rates of U.S. immigration.

In remarks on Twitter, Trump criticized the Diversity Visa Immigrant Program and said the allotment of visas should be “merit based.”

Fingerprints Of Islamic State On New York Attack – OpEd

0
0

Eight people have been killed and more than a dozen injured after a truck mowed down people on a bike path in Lower Manhattan. FBI is treating the incident as an act of terrorism and the driver of the vehicle has been shot by the NYPD and taken into custody alive.

The suspect has been identified as a 29-year-old Uzbek immigrant Sayfullo Saipov, which is a Russian variant of the Arabic name Saifullah Saif meaning the sword of Allah. It’s worth noting that the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), which has pledged allegiance to the Islamic State’s self-proclaimed caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in mid-2015, is one of the most fearsome affiliate of the Islamic State in the Central Asia region because its recruits have been motivated to fight to death.

What lends credence to the theory that the atrocity has been perpetrated by the Islamic State’s recruit is the fact that handwritten notes pledging allegiance to the Islamic State and the terror group’s flag have reportedly been found near the vehicle. Moreover, when the driver of the truck exited the vehicle, apart from shouting Allahu Akbar, he was also brandishing imitation firearms.

Thus, this truck-ramming incident bears all the trademarks of the Islamic State-inspired terror attacks as is evident from the recent spate of shootings, bombings and vehicle-ramming attacks in Europe during the last couple of years. It bears mentioning that via its Amaq news agency, Islamic State has directed its followers to always shout the battle cry of Allahu Akbar to let their affiliation with the Islamic State be known and has also instructed its recruits to wear fake suicide vests and brandish imitation firearms so that they are not captured alive.

In order to understand the motive for the atrocity, we must bear the context in mind: the Islamic State has recently been routed from its de facto capital Raqqa in Syria which it had occupied since 2013. The so-called “Islamic caliphate” that once spanned one-third of Syria and Iraq has been reduced to a few small pockets in both these countries, and it is only a matter of time before the jihadist group is completely routed. Therefore, it is only natural for the Islamic State to use all means available at its disposal to seek revenge for its battlefield defeats at the hands of the US.

More to the point, we should also bear the background of the Western foreign policy in the Middle East during the recent years in mind. The six-year-long conflict in Syria that gave birth to scores of militant groups, including the Islamic State, and after the conflict spilled over across the border into neighboring Iraq in early 2014 has directly been responsible for the recent spate of Islamic State-inspired terror attacks against the West.

Since the beginning of the Syrian civil war in August 2011 to June 2014 when the Islamic State overran Mosul and Anbar in Iraq, an informal pact existed between the Western powers, their regional allies and Sunni militants of the Middle East against the Shi’a Iranian axis. In accordance with the pact, Sunni militants were trained and armed in the training camps located in the border regions of Turkey and Jordan to battle the Shi’a-led Syrian government.

This arrangement of an informal pact between the Western powers and the Sunni jihadists of the Middle East against the Shi’a Iranian axis worked well up to August 2014, when the Obama Administration made a volte-face on its previous regime change policy in Syria and began conducting air strikes against one group of Sunni militants battling the Syrian government, the Islamic State, after the latter overstepped its mandate in Syria and overran Mosul and Anbar in Iraq from where the US had withdrawn its troops only a couple of years ago in December 2011.

After this reversal of policy in Syria by the Western powers and the subsequent Russian military intervention on the side of the Syrian government in September 2015, the momentum of Sunni militants’ expansion in Syria and Iraq has stalled, and they now feel that their Western patrons have committed a treachery against the Sunni jihadists’ cause, that’s why they are infuriated and once again up in arms to exact revenge for this betrayal.

If we look at the chain of events, the timing of the recent spate of terror attacks against the West has been critical: the Islamic State overran Mosul in June 2014, the Obama Administration began conducting air strikes against the Islamic State’s targets in Iraq and Syria in August 2014, and after a lull of almost a decade since the Madrid and London bombings in 2004 and 2005, respectively, the first such incident of terrorism took place on the Western soil at the offices of Charlie Hebdo in January 2015, and then the Islamic State carried out the audacious November 2015 Paris attacks, the March 2016 Brussels bombings, the June 2016 truck-ramming incident in Nice, and this year, three horrific terror attacks have taken place in the United Kingdom within a span of less than three months, and after that the Islamic State carried out the Barcelona attack in August and now another truck-ramming atrocity has taken place in Lower Manhattan that has all the trademarks of the Islamic State.

Regarding the argument that how Washington’s foreign policy of lending indiscriminate support to Sunni militants against the Shi’a-led government in Syria has been responsible for the recent wave of terror attacks against the West, remember that Saudi Arabia which has been vying for power as the leader of Sunni bloc against the Shi’a-led Iran in the regional geopolitics was staunchly against the invasion of Iraq by the Bush Administration in 2003.

The Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein constituted a Sunni bulwark against Iran’s meddling in the Arab World. But after Saddam was ousted from power in 2003 and subsequently when elections were held in Iraq which were swept by the Shi’a-dominated parties, Iraq has now been led by a Shi’a-majority government that has become a steadfast regional ally of Iran. Consequently, Iran’s sphere of influence now extends all the way from territorially-contiguous Iraq and Syria to Lebanon and the northern border of Israel.

Saudi royal family was resentful of Iranian encroachment on traditional Arab heartland. Therefore, when protests broke out against the Assad regime in Syria in the wake of Arab Spring uprisings of 2011, the Gulf Arab States along with their regional Sunni allies, Turkey and Jordan, and the Western patrons gradually militarized the protests to dismantle the Shi’a Iranian axis comprised of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Iran’s proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah.

Finally, although the Sunni states of the Middle East and their jihadist proxies still toe Washington’s line in the region publicly, but behind the scenes, there is bitter resentment that the US has betrayed the Sunni cause by making an about-face on the previous regime change policy in Syria and the subsequent declaration of war against the Islamic State.

Looking Back At The Balfour Declaration: A Mixed Legacy – Analysis

0
0

On November 2, 1917, British Foreign Minister Arthur Balfour wrote the Balfour Declaration which favored the establishment of a national homeland for the Jewish people in the land of Palestine. A hundred years since the Balfour Declaration was implemented, there seems to be no end in sight for the Israel-Palestine conflict. For many Jews, the Balfour declaration established the platform for the creation of the State of Israel, and the establishment of self-determination for the Jewish people. However, for many Palestinians, they have felt the effects of Zionism as a political entity, and many victims of ethnic cleansing had to leave their homes when the State of Israel was established in May of 1948. The direct result of the British Empire enabling the Zionist project to take root in Palestine left many Palestinians dispossessed in order to make room for a Jewish state.

The Balfour Declaration was a very short, but enormously important 67-word letter to Lord Walter Rothschild that had some lasting consequences that are still being felt today. While the Israelis who supported the State of Israel are celebrating and the Palestinians are mourning and protesting, the British Government is caught in the middle because of its role in the Middle East a century ago, and in a way, it is the encapsulation of ongoing deadlock to the Israel-Palestine conflict. It should be important for all of us to understand the real meaning of what the Balfour Declaration is and what the consequences of it were both short and long term, and without the Balfour Declaration, there would be no state of Israel.

What drove the British to issue the Balfour Declaration is a debatable question. Some historians say that the declaration was meant to protect British imperial interests in the Middle East, some also say that it was anti-Semitic because some members of the British Establishment wanted to get rid of Jews from England and send them to Palestine. 1917 marked the penultimate year of the First World War at the height of the British Empire when the British, along with the French and the Russians fought against the Germans, Austro-Hungarians, and the Ottoman Turks.

In that same year, the Russian Revolution took place, which was a very nervous moment for the allied powers who had lost many casualties on the Western Front against the Germans, and the British were struggling to drive the Ottoman Turks out of the Holy Land.

The premier objective that the British thought they would achieve through the Balfour Declaration was the belief that the United States who just entered the war, and Russia who was on the brink of leaving the war, could be brought back into the fight, and when the First World War ended, there would be a clear recognition of Jewish rights. The other factor was that when the First World War progressed, the British feared that the French would rival them over the control of the holy land. France was the premier ally of Great Britain during the war, but Britain used Zionism as a lever to contain the increasing French influence in the Middle East which had considerable resonance in the British bureaucracy.

Most of the First World War was fought on the borders of Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Russia, but in the middle of this chaos were five and a half million Jews trying to find a way out of the war. And so, Chaim Weitzman was very attuned to the desperation of masses of European Jews to envision Palestine as the solution. Chaim Weitzman envisioned Palestine as the solution because he knew that the European countries would not open their borders to massive Jewish emigration.

In the wake of the chaos from the First World War, the British made a significant promise to the indigenous population of Palestine. The promise made to Sharif Hussein bin Ali of Mecca was that with the support of the Arabs against the Ottoman Turks in the First World War, the Sharif of Mecca would, in return, get his own independent Arab kingdom. And so, this was a promise that the British never kept to the indigenous population.

There is no question that the Jews of the Russian Empire were suffering in Europe, but Palestine was already inhabited by an indigenous population, and it proved to be difficult for the Zionist movement to plant another people in another land. And so, as a result, this was the biggest flaw in paving the way for a Jewish state. The Balfour Declaration very famously in its short space had a major qualification. The fundamental source of the problem with the Balfour Declaration was that nothing would be done to prejudice the civil and religious rights of the existing non-Jewish communities, which constituted an overwhelming percentage of the population. However, the Balfour Declaration built a Jewish homeland for the Jewish people that totally ignored the indigenous population, namely, the Palestinians that were already living there, and there was no way around this.

Edwin Montagu, who was the only Jewish member of the British cabinet at the time, rejected the Balfour Declaration saying that if Palestine is the home of the Jewish people, then we will be treated as wanderers. In fact, Montagu called Zionism, “a mischievous political creed, untenable by any patriotic citizen of the United Kingdom.”i One of the major effects of the Balfour Declaration was for the Jewish people to settle in Palestine by right and not by sufferance which meant immigration.

In practice, the British Government tried to limit immigration, and they did this when Palestine was a British mandate. Since the 1920’s, a hundred thousand Jews flocked to Palestine, but when Adolf Hitler rose to power in Germany, that number tripled. The Balfour Declaration did save thousands of Jewish lives because without the Balfour Declaration, and without the mandate in particular, more Jews would have been dead. The Palestinians never rejected housing refugees, and admitting people who were in need, but the biggest problem with Zionism was that the Zionists who came into Palestine had an agenda of making Palestine a state for themselves at the expense of the indigenous population.

Thirty years after the Balfour Declaration was issued, Palestinians were forced to give up more than half of their land to whom they saw as foreign settlers, and now the Palestinians have paid the price for some of the serious consequences that still exist today, including the Israeli occupation. A hundred years since Balfour, there is still no solution to the Israel-Palestine Conflict, and this problem has always been a thorn to all of the ongoing problems in the Middle East. The status quo still looks like an unviable pathway for a diplomatic solution. Israel is in full control of Palestine, and it still rules over an indigenous population, but unfortunately, the Palestinians remain politically divided between Fatah and Hamas, and there is still no unity within the Palestinian Authority.

The Palestinians might not be ready to negotiate with Israel, but if the Palestinians can resolve their political divisions and create a united national front that can be ready to negotiate with Israel, then the Palestinians can agree to build a consensus for putting a halt to the occupation. The status quo for a half century has proven to be utterly unstable. Looking at the realities on the ground, and given the fact that the two-state solution is dead, the only viable solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict is for the Palestinians to acquire the same equal rights with the Israelis under one government, and hopefully this can heal the wounds of terrible damage done to the Palestinian people since the Balfour Declaration.

i. “Memorandum of Edwin Montagu on the Anti-Semitism of the Present (British) Government – submitted to the British Cabinet, August 1917” August 23, 1917 Jewish Virtual Library http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/montagu-memo-on-british-government-s-anti-semitism

Iraq: PM Calls Election, Bans Armed Factions From Contesting

0
0

By Suadad Al-Salhy

Iraq will hold a parliamentary election on May 15 next year and political parties with armed wings will not be allowed to take part, Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi said on Wednesday.

“The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), as a part of the Iraqi security system, have no right to practice politics,” Al-Abadi said. “So, as a military institution, they will not participate in the election. Political parties should give up their armed wings, or they will be prevented from taking part.”

The PMF is a government body established in June 2014 to cover all the armed factions fighting Daesh alongside the Iraqi government. It consists of more than 10,000 volunteers from all Iraqi sects, ethnicities and minorities, but its majority is Shiite and Iranian-backed Shiite paramilitary forces form its backbone. Al-Abadi’s announcement is aimed at isolating these troops from their original armed factions.

The prime minister began a campaign some months ago to restructure the PMF units, merge many of them with the regular army units, dissolve many battalions and form new brigades of fighters from different armed factions, prevent the use of the names of irregular factions, and prohibit the use of any militia marks, banners or pictures.

However, most registered Shiite, Sunni, Kurd, Turkmen, Christian and Yazidi political parties in Iraq have armed wings, and most of them are a part of the PMF.

Al-Abadi’s announcement will have an effect on those parties.

“Practically all the political parties have volunteers within the Popular Mobilization. It is not fair to punish the politicians who fought Daesh,” Kareem Al-Nuri, a PMF commander and a senior leader of the Badr Organization, one of the most influential Shiite armed factions, told Arab News.

“Yes, the participation of the security or military officials under their official title is prohibited in the constitution, but if they resign or participate as politicians, there will be no problem.

“But the PMF is a part of the Iraqi security forces. Its fighters submit to military laws and standards. And yes, they will not participate the election as they are soldiers.”

The decision on the election date needs to be approved by Parliament and the president at least 90 days in advance before it can be confirmed. Iraq has 18 parliamentary constituencies, each electing between seven and 34 deputies according to demographics.

The last election took place in April 2014, when the State of Law alliance of former Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki won most of the votes but fell short of an overall majority. Al-Maliki ceded power to Al-Abadi that August.

On the ground on Wednesday, federal officers accused the Kurdistan Regional Government of reneging on agreements with Baghdad to hand over border crossings. They warned that fighting may resume unless the Kurds reconsidered their position.

Rebalancing Oil Market Still A Challenge, Even For Saudi Arabia – OpEd

0
0

By Wael Mahdi*

There has been much optimism since last week on the possibility of extending the current production-cuts agreement between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies beyond its expiry next March.

The optimism was fueled by the recent comments of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who said on Oct. 26 that his country was ready to extend the agreement.

There is another reason that might further fuel the speculation on the extension, and it came from the International Monetary Fund which said on Oct. 31 that Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar will have budget surpluses in 2018, while Saudi Arabia will need an oil price of $70 to break even its fiscal balances.

The improved outlook for the fiscal situation would be really encouraging for oil producers to maintain market stability and to keep oil prices at around current levels of $60. One of the best ways to do that is to stick to the current agreement, presumably, until the end of next year.

The agreement itself is a driving force for the rebalancing of the oil market that has been lost since mid-2014, and the crown prince acknowledged this in his statement that was released by the newly created Saudi Center of International Communication.

What’s more important is that the crown prince acknowledged that there are challenges.

“The journey toward restoring balance to markets, led by the Kingdom, is proving successful despite the challenges,” he said in a statement.

So, what could possibly be the challenges to the journey to rebalancing the oil market?

The first and foremost challenge is the compliance level with the current agreement.

Certainly, the market won’t stay stable without higher conformity levels with the cuts.
Banks such as J.P. Morgan, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs all attributed the improvement in prices to higher compliance levels in addition to other major factors such as increase in demand for oil that is supported by high refining margins.

The compliance level for OPEC and non-OPEC producers participating in the agreement was 120 percent as of September. That is the highest since the start of the deal in January and the highest ever in the history of all OPEC deals with non-OPEC producers.

Reaching this level, however, wasn’t an easy task and the crown prince knows more than anyone else how much political effort Saudi Arabia invested in order to see improvements in compliance.

It all started in July days before the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee met in St. Petersburg in Russia. Back then Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih told other ministers that there was no other way for this deal to go further without better compliance.

Al-Falih then went on to visit some of these countries and through official correspondence and inviting them to OPEC functions such as the meetings of the Joint Technical Committee things started to improve slightly. Some of them, however, made additional cuts by force and not by choice, but at the end the results were good for all.
J.P. Morgan acknowledged the efforts made by Saudi in a report on Oct. 27. “The hallmark of Saudi Arabian leadership is evident in the current agreement, with average compliance for Saudi Arabia above 120 percent for the first three quarters of 2017,” the bank said. “This is substantially better compliance than any of the other major OPEC producers.”

Now, going forward, the compliance challenges will still be there next year. With higher oil prices and the prospect of higher oil demand come higher revenues and that would encourage some producers to raise their production.

Some banks such as J.P. Morgan are already anticipating lower compliance next year. However, a drop in compliance will take time and “if compliance levels were to drop, they likely would drop gradually toward the end of 2018 or when the deal achieves its goal of lowering global oil stockpiles to a five-year average.

Another possible challenge next year is the ability of many oil producers to pump crude at lower levels, which means that more supply can hit the market, even with oil prices staying between $50 and $60.

Big oil companies such as Total are already assuming a break-even price next year or in 2019 at around $20. Even expensive offshore developments are becoming competitive. Petrobras, Brazil’s largest producer, sees break-even of some of its pre-salt projects such as Libra at $33, the CEO of the company said on Oct. 27.

Shale oil producers such as Pioneer are increasing hedging for their production next year and need as low as $20 to break even this year as they keep cutting costs, a trend that would continue next year.

Last but not least of the challenges is the exiting strategy. Agreeing on an extension is straightforward but exiting the deal should be crafted well to avoid disturbing the market balance. The Saudi energy minister said that any exit should be smooth but OPEC has not until now announced any strategy on how to exit from the deal.

With all the current success, OPEC and its allies are in half-time mode now as OPEC’s Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said in Kuwait last month. They now need to focus on the second half of the match, and that won’t be easy.

• Wael Mahdi is an energy reporter specializing on OPEC and a co-author of “OPEC in a Shale Oil World: Where to Next?” He can be reached on Twitter @waelmahdi

Pakistan: Divorce Divides Christian Marriage Law Debate

0
0

By Zahid Hussain and Kamran Chaudhry

The issue of divorce is shaping as a thorny issue, as Pakistan looks to overhaul its 145-year-old Christian matrimony laws drawn up during British colonial times.

On Oct. 25, a delegation of Christian leaders, women activists and human rights campaigners met with Pakistani Minister for Human Rights, Mumtaz Ahmed Tarar, to discuss new provisions in the Christian Marriage and Divorce Bill, 2017.

Matrimony and divorce are currently covered by the Christian Marriage Act of 1872 and the Christian Divorce Act, enacted in 1869. But the government wants to review the legislation as some provisions are seen as obsolete, too rigid and unjust, discriminatory against women and smacking of colonial rule.

“The ministry will forward the proposed Christian Marriage and Divorce Bill, 2017 to the federal Law Ministry for vetting,” Tarar told the delegation. “The bill will be tabled in the national assembly for approval once it is approved by the law ministry in line with the recommendations of the Christian community.”

The Christian delegation demanded that all provisions in the bill be in accordance with the Bible, a statement by the ministry said.

In a study of family laws for religious minorities published last year, the Catholic bishop’s National Commission for Justice and Peace (NJCP) proposed domestic violence and sexual violence, mental or terminal physical illness, and intentionally not fulfilling any financial, emotional or physical obligations are reasonable grounds for annulment of a marriage.

The suggestions were incorporated in a joint submission last year by eight Pakistan mainstream churches for the proposed new legislation.

“We don’t support divorce, but there are several provisions for the annulment of marriage in Canon Law. For example, if someone is kidnapped or hiding his impotency to get married, we believe that matrimony never took place,” Bishop Joseph Arshad, chairperson of the NCJP told ucanews.com.

Ayra Inderias, the female leader of the Christian delegation, cited confusion among political and religious leaders for the delay of the proposed bill.

“The women lawmakers support other grounds for divorce but the Christian politicians are taking a hardline. Church of Pakistan bishops are divided on this issue and the Canon Law of the Catholic Church is too far from the realities on the ground,” she said.

Asha Thama, a representative of Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, said that human rights issues must not be ignored in the Marriage and Divorce Bill.

“Unlike the past, new socio-economic realities have emerged which need to be viewed along modern lines regarding marriage as well as divorce,” Thama said. “The state must take responsibility for every citizen irrespective of his or her faith and should guarantee their fundamental rights in any legislation.”

“There are many justified grounds for annulment of marriage other than adultery. In some cases, some people go abroad for jobs and don’t return for years,” he said. “The legislation should be done in a way that it doesn’t hurt religious sentiments and ensures the rights of women, widows and children.”

Jennifer Jag Jivan, a Christian women’s rights activist, who was part of the consultative and consensus building process, endorsed the NCJP proposals on the new bill.

According to the proposed Marriage Bill 2017, the minimum age for marriage is 18 years for both males and females. The consent of a parent or guardian to marry has been omitted as a minimum age has been set.

The new bill also proposes penalties for false oaths, declarations, notices and certificates.

The existing Christian Divorce Act has only a few grounds for divorce; incest and bigamy.

The new bill covers other issues for grounds for dissolution of a marriage, including infectious diseases and infertility. The bill proposes that preliminary medical examination be mandatory before solemnization of marriage, as a precautionary measure.


US In Danger Of Losing Lead In Artificial Intelligence

0
0

By Jim Garamone

Artificial intelligence is the new frontier, and the Defense Department must invest in this breakthrough or be in danger of not being competitive in the future, said Eric Schmidt, the chairman of the Defense Innovation Board, during a discussion at the Center for a New American Security.

Schmidt, who also served as the chief executive officer of Google and parent company Alphabet, said of all the recommendations the board made, the most important was that DoD needs to catch up in AI.

He used vision as an example, saying that computers already can watch monotonous things for a long time and then notify a human if something out of the ordinary happens. Tests show, he said, that humans doing the same thing make errors a third of the time. Letting computers do this “seems like the simplest possible thing,” Schmidt said. “And yet, we have this whole tradition of the military standing watch … as if that is a good use of human being.”

AI will not be like humans; it will be different, he said. “The best uses of AI will be in the AI-human collaboration of one type or another,” Schmidt said.

Faster Solutions

He gave a synopsis for the AI problem for the military: “The military is very large and cumbersome. The military as a general rule doesn’t build things, it uses contractors.”

Contractors build what they are asked to build, and the military has not asked for AI systems, he said. “It takes five to 10 to 30 years to go from a spec to the delivery,” Schmidt said. “The core problem is how do you get the leaders, who passionately want to get this stuff done, to deliver these solutions quickly?”

DoD also must do more to draw in technologies from the private sector where the innovation is occurring today, Schmidt said. It is also important to attract the right innovators to the department.

The department leaders understand this need, he said. “The problem is everyone can understand something. But they cannot collectively act,” he said. “You have to come up with ways for them to come up with the resources and so forth. If were in a huge war with a major adversary, I’m sure the rules would be different. Right now, the planning procedures take too long.”

The military moving to cloud computing for its infrastructure will help, Schmidt said. The department is moving faster, “but I think it is not fast enough — but I said that at Google, too,” he added.

Schmidt spoke about the Chinese AI program. Their AI strategy calls for the nation to have caught up with the U.S. by 2020 and to be better than the U.S. by 2025, and “by 2030 they will dominate the industry,” he said. “The government said that. Weren’t we the ones who invented this stuff? Weren’t we the ones who were going to exploit all this technology for the betterment of American exceptionalism?”

America must invest in research, Schmidt said. “America is the country that leads in these areas, there is every reason to believe that we can continue with this leadership.”

Saudi Arabia’s New ‘Megacity’ Dream Will Actually Be An Ethical Nightmare

0
0

By Ty Joplin

Megacities have been a thing of dystopian fantasy for decades, but now one country wants to finally make one, because why not?

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced at a tech conference in the hermit kingdom earlier this month that Saudi plans to build a futuristic megacity by 2025.

In what can be called ‘techwashing,’ this stunt is just one of a series of developments from Saudi where the Kingdom appears to be using its technological ambitions to gloss over its various human rights violations and oppression of its own population.

Called Neom, the city will be constructed from scratch near the Red Sea in northwest Saudi. The plan appears to pay for its construction by raking in billions from floating 5% of the national oil company, Saudi Aramco, on international stock exchanges in an Initial Public Offering (IPO).

Neom will reportedly be made to run off solar and wind power, will sprawl from Saudi into Jordan and even Egypt, will cost $500 billion to build and will apparently be populated mostly with robots.

Map showing the proposed location of Neom, courtesy of discoverneom.com

Saudi giving a robot citizenship for the first time now seems less like a PR stunt and more like a trial run for devising a new legal category for the robots they plan on making to service the megacity.

Bin Salman also mentioned that the city would, ideally, be privatized. “It’s as if you float the city of New York,” bin Salman told Reuters.

This would be the first time people could buy actual portions of cities and not just businesses within the cities, meaning at least theoretically, a city’s de facto leaders could be a CEO and an executive board rather than a democratically elected or appointed city council.

While Neom has been met with equal parts excitement and skepticism about it actually being built, the prevailing sentiment has revolved around how utterly ambitious the idea is, and how neat it would be if this city actually got built.

But there are many, many reasons to be fearful of this idea.

So far, little has been mentioned about how Saudi actually builds and maintains its cities. The country’s abysmal record on the treatment of migrant workers and relative silence on meaningful reform means this plan for a megacity will, if realized, be a mega-sized human rights crisis.

Approximately 33% of Saudi’s population are foreign workers, totalling about 10.7 million people. Of those, about seven million come from South Asian countries like India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka in addition to Yemen, Egypt, Sudan and Somalia–all countries that export massive amounts of workers as laborers around the world.

“They had absolutely nothing left,” a Human Rights Watch researcher told Vice in 2015, referring to migrant workers losing all their possessions when they have been detained by Saudi for being undocumented.

Saudi has carried out a prolonged deportation campaign since 2013, corralling thousands of workers into destitute camps for indefinite periods of time, until they are deported to their home countries which are often conflict zones.

Saudi also maintains a kafala, or sponsorship, system whereby migrant workers are legally tied to specific employers. The employers reportedly confiscate passports regularly–in effect controlling the movement of their workers, while also paying them irregularly and working them long hours with little breaks.

Since the massive decline in global oil prices in 2013, Saudi companies have struggled to stay afloat, often missing payments to their workers which drive the workers into financial desperation. These flailing companies then put their migrant workers in limbo where they are legally tied to a company who won’t pay them, and they face a choice: try to go home, fight the company legally, or wait to be paid–all options have their own perils and their respective success is far from guaranteed.

Because there has been no announcement to reforming the working conditions of its laborers, we can expect Saudi’s new megacity to be built with this type of exploitative labor.

If it does get built then, it has the potential to create a human rights crisis similar to the one being witnessed in Qatar. There migrant workers there are being abused en masse while they build football stadiums for the 2022 World Cup.

One remedy to mitigate worker abuse would be for potential investors to demand fair treatment and pay for workers building properties and sections of the city they may buy out.

But this depends on there being potential investors before the land is built upon, and can be spoiled by one corporation outbidding another by simply not demanding the same ethical treatment.

The megacity will not bring a plethora of new jobs to the country either: bin Salman made it a point to say the city will be mostly populated with robots who will perform the work of maintaining the city.

“We want the main robot and the first robot in Neom to be Neom, robot number one,” bin Salman told Bloomberg in hyping up the dystopian nightmare that is Neom.

Thus far, there has been no talk of new educational or vocational programs for Saudis who want to be part of their country’s megacity project. It just doesn’t seem like Saudi Arabia wants Saudis in this city.

Neom may sound exciting, but for its shiny promise of being a “civilizational leap for humanity,” it has all the signs of being a massively inhumane undertaking that will involve systematic and widespread violations of migrant workers’ rights.

Original source

Indonesia’s Blue Economy Initiative: Rethinking Maritime Security Challenges – Analysis

0
0

Indonesian officials are eager to harness the blue economy initiative. This notwithstanding, there are numerous other non-traditional maritime security challenges like IUU fishing, piracy, and marine plastic debris that impede on its progress. Good maritime security governance thus plays an important role.

By Dedi Dinarto*

Blue Economy — a model of sustainable development which emphasises the utilisation of the coastal and marine ecosystem —g ained prominence as one of the main priorities of the maritime resource agenda of Joko Widodo’s (Jokowi) Global Maritime Fulcrum vision. The president had indicated his commitment in reinvigorating Indonesia’s maritime identity, managing the country’s marine resources, strengthening its maritime defence capability, intensifying maritime diplomacy, and improving inter-island connectivity.

The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) reported that Indonesia is the second largest producer of marine products amounting to six million tonnes in 2014. Indonesia’s aquaculture sector yielded more than four million tonnes, constituting 5.7 percent of global aquaculture production in 2014. The archipelago’s blue economy contributes roughly 6.7 percent to the national GDP in 2016, absorbing 4.12 percent of Indonesia’s total workforce of around 100 million people.

Centering Blue Economy Initiative

The concept and mainstreaming of the blue economy in Indonesia was first announced by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono at the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20) in 2012. The concept emanated from Indonesia’s awareness to develop its own domestic marine and fisheries sector and to support sustainable development that emphasises zero carbon emission with minimal environmental impact.

Previously, Indonesia proposed a sub-regional Coral Triangle Initiative during the Eighth Convention on Biological Diversity in 2006, which involved Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Timor Leste, Papua New Guinea, and the Solomon Islands, placing emphasis on the marine environment globally.

Indonesia also extended its blue economy projects in East and Central Lombok to the FAO which highlighted an integrated development programme on tuna fisheries, aquacultures, marine tourism, traditional salt industries and pearl industries. The Lombok Blue Economy Implementation Programme alone is expected to create more than 75,000 new jobs, generating around US$ 115 million annually.

Harnessing marine resources under the blue economy initiative, the Jokowi administration spent tremendous effort at the domestic and international levels to promote it. The recently issued National Ocean Policy 2017, which provided comprehensive roadmaps and policy guidelines to fulfil the maritime vision, had the blue economy included as one of the administration’s main agendas.

This continued commitment is further demonstrated by Indonesia’s international engagement in regional forums such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA). Given the chance to host the second IORA Blue Economy Ministerial Conference in 2017, Indonesia urged IORA members to not only exchange views on the blue economy, but also collaborate in a number of blue economy initiatives, namely fisheries and aquaculture, inter-port cooperation, customs cooperation, marine tourism, and marine plastic debris.

Persisting Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) Fishing

Notwithstanding the wherewithal and its commitment to the greater implementation of the blue economy, Indonesia still struggles with the issue of illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing.

According to Tempo, an Indonesian investigative magazine, Indonesia had been suffering from a US$3 billion deficit annually since 2013 due to rampant IUU fishing activities. A research conducted by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in 2009 found that the Arafura Sea is one of the most vulnerable regional waters to IUU fishing. The Java Sea and the maritime borders near Borneo are also plagued by illegal fishing incidences.

The Minister for Marine and Fisheries Affairs, Susi Pudjiastuti, has taken a stern stance in combating IUU fishing. Her preferred method was scuttling captured vessels. In June 2017, Indonesia sunk 81 captured vessels involved in IUU fishing. Susi’s methods received praise domestically but criticised as draconian internationally.

Even though sinking vessels in a dramatic fashion is believed to be effective in deterring illegal vessels coming into Indonesian waters, Indonesia has also been pursuing other preventive and monitoring measures through cooperation with Spire Global, an Australian satellite-powered data company that assist in the tracking and monitoring of alleged illegal fishing vessels. The available data and actionable intelligence would ominously assist the Indonesian Navy and maritime security agencies the investigation and seizure of illegal vessels.

Piracy and Marine Debris: Upcoming Threats

Indonesia continues to be weighed down by piracy and armed robberies at sea. Navigating and securing sea-lanes for shipping and transhipment remains a crucial part of the blue economy. The International Maritime Bureau recorded 46 incidents and 108 incidents in 2011 and 2015 respectively, a significant increase of 134 percent.

Contrary to popular belief, most of piracy and armed robbery incidents in Indonesia do not take place on the high seas or open waters but closer to the ports. The percentage of piracy and armed robbery incidents in ports reached 65 percent in 2012 and steadily increased to 82 percent in 2015, indicating an upward trend, followed by a decreased number of incidents in territorial and high seas.

Marine plastic debris also poses a challenge to Indonesia’s blue economy as it damages the environment and taints marine products. The Indonesian Minister for Environment and Forestry, Siti Nurbaya Bakar, pointed out that Indonesia is only one of a handful of countries that has put significant effort into addressing the issue.

Nevertheless, Indonesia simultaneously produces about 1.3 million tonnes of debris annually due to a poor recycling and waste management framework. In terms of marine tourism, the vast amount of marine plastic debris could hinder the positive development of Indonesia’s fledgling marine tourism industry.

Blue Economy at Stake?

Following the successive international engagements pioneered by cabinet ministers Susi Pudjiastuti and Luhut Pandjaitan in the “Our Ocean Conference” held in Malta, the prospect of whether the blue economy can be implemented successfully comes into question. Susi Pudjiastuti herself delivered a remarkable speech during the Malta conference highlighting the inextricable link between illegal fishing activities and numbers of organised crimes, which potentially hampers the progress of the blue economy.

Furthering the commitment of the Jokowi administration, the conundrum of the economic-security nexus must be taken into account when establishing an integrated marine-oriented economic development. In addition to sinking vessels as a deterrent, Indonesia must forge a path for a greater development of the blue economy by implementing good maritime security governance.

Good maritime security governance means providing guidance in the maritime security outlook where possible threats are defined, with a clear division of functions and tasks, integrated intelligence information sharing, and frequent coordinated maritime patrol among maritime agencies.

*Dedi Dinarto is a Research Associate with the Indonesia Programme, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

North Korea Threat And Asian Markets: A Paradox? – Analysis

0
0

How are East Asian stock exchanges reacting to North Korea’s sabre rattling? For the region’s markets, the following equation seems to apply: the more North Korea conducts nuclear and missile tests, the better.

By Mikio Kumada and Michael Raska*

North Korea has significantly increased the number of missile tests this year, while rejecting the latest round of UN Security Council sanctions as well as the “military option” warnings from Washington. In September 2017, Pyongyang escalated tensions to a new level by firing two long-range missiles that flew over Japan, conducting a hydrogen bomb test, and then boasting about “sinking” the Japanese archipelago into the Pacific a wave of nuclear attacks.

As tensions on the Korean Peninsula reached their peak in October, the stock market indices in the Far East climbed to new record highs. Technically, the market exhibits a remarkably strong positive momentum, which suggests that longer-term bull market phase has begun. Furthermore, Asia’s markets are not simply following the global economic upswing, but outperforming.

South Korean and Far East Equities

The strength of East Asia’s equity markets this year becomes particularly evident when compared to those of North America, Western Europe and Japan. Since the beginning of this year, the MSCI Korea Index in US dollars has surged close to 40 percent, while the MSCI Far East Index in US dollars has increased about 33 percent. That compares to about 20 percent, 14 percent, and 13 percent for the equivalent stock market indices of Europe, Japan, and United States, respectively (all translated in US dollars for comparative purposes).

From a macroeconomic point of view, Asia is booming. Even the mature economy of Japan is performing very well – in the second quarter of the year, Japan’s gross domestic product rose at annualised rate of 2.5%, exceeding its own potential growth rate more than three times. The earnings growth of its stock market-listed companies is more than twice the global average, while exports have been recording double-digit gains, with shipments to Asia increasing most sharply. In economic terms, Japan’s is certainly nowhere near “sinking” into the Pacific, figuratively speaking.

Similarly, stronger domestic growth and rising stock markets are evident across the Far East and the world. In fact, the second quarter of 2017 marked the first in which all top ten economies reported positive growth rates for the first time since 2013.

Market Expectations – A Negotiated Settlement?

On the one hand, the positive economic and market trends may provide an important argument as to why hardly anyone in the business world takes North Korea’s sabre rattling seriously. In this view, East Asia’s stock markets, which had been generally lagging the West and Japan over most of the past five years, are now simply catching up. However, the pronounced strength of the Far Eastern indices may imply that a benign geopolitical outcome on the Korean Peninsula is in the making.

As a crowd, investors seem to have a clear vision: the current security developments on the Korean Peninsula are not leading toward a destructive war, but a pragmatic recognition of North Korea’s nuclear status. In this viewpoint, North Korea’s current crisis escalation may paradoxically signal a willingness to engage in a process that points toward some form of a negotiated settlement, enabling a breakout from the current geopolitical deadlock.

Restarting talks with North Korea amid conditions of strategic distrust and varying geostrategic interests would of course not be a straightforward deal. However, potential realistic goalposts for restarting talks would include establishing crisis prevention mechanisms and communication links with Pyongyang to mitigate any potential escalation pressures or miscalculations.

Subsequently, realistic benchmarks for reaching an agreement with Pyongyang would entail arms limitations, rather than complete and irreversible denuclearisation. In this context, North Korea would agree to halt and scale down its nuclear and missile programme, in exchange for easing of sanctions, de facto regime recognition, and security guarantees by the US and South Korea. In the long-term, a negotiated settlement would envision ways to increase economic integration and investment in North Korea with a potential for a peace treaty.

De-isolating North Korea

It is perhaps worth remembering that when the People’s Republic of China took its first steps toward opening-up its economy in the 1970s, in many respects it appeared no less radical and isolated than North Korea is today. Engaging it through varying economic incentives, rather than only through diplomatic and military strangulation, may offer political outcomes that would de-isolate Pyongyang.

If Washington, Pyongyang and the other stakeholders can align their strategic choices to successfully overcome more than 60 years of Cold War confrontation, the current wave of nuclear tensions will be largely forgotten a decade from today. Instead, in the not too distant future, American tourists may be booking their next vacation to visit the legendary Mt. Paektu, possibly using an app on a brand-name smartphone manufactured in a North Korean special economic zone.

*Mikio Kumada is Executive Director, Global Strategist at LGT Capital Partners in Hong Kong. Michael Raska is Assistant Professor at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

Another Big Hollywood Producer Accused Of Sexual Harassment

0
0

Director and producer Brett Ratner has been accused of sexual harassment by six women, according to a report published Wednesday, November 1 by the Los Angeles Times.

Natasha Henstridge was watching a movie on Brett Ratner’s couch when she fell asleep. She was a 19-year-old fashion model; he was an up-and-coming music video director in his early 20s. They had been hanging out in front of the TV with friends at his New York apartment.

But when Henstridge woke up, the others had left. She was alone with Ratner. She got up to leave, Henstridge said, but he blocked the doorway with his body and wouldn’t budge. He began touching himself, she said, then forced her to perform oral sex.

“He strong-armed me in a real way. He physically forced himself on me,” she said. “At some point, I gave in and he did his thing.”

Ratner, through his attorney Martin Singer, disputed her account.

Since that incident in the early 1990s, Henstridge has found success as an actress — starring in the films “Species” and “The Whole Nine Yards.” But she said she has carried the memory of the run-in with her, and watched from afar as Ratner became one of Hollywood’s most powerful players — directing, producing or financing dozens of today’s biggest box-office hits, including “Rush Hour,” “X-Men: The Last Stand,” “The Revenant” and “Horrible Bosses.”

As hundreds of women have come forward in recent weeks with allegations of sexual misconduct at the hands of producer Harvey Weinstein, director James Toback and numerous other powerful men, Henstridge decided she would no longer remain silent.

In interviews with the Los Angeles Times, Henstridge and five other women accused Ratner of a range of sexual harassment and misconduct that allegedly took place in private homes, on movie sets or at industry events.

As is often the case, none of the women reported the allegations to the police.

On Ratner’s behalf, Singer “categorically” disputed their accounts.

“I have represented Mr. Ratner for two decades, and no woman has ever made a claim against him for sexual misconduct or sexual harassment,” Singer said in a 10-page letter to The Times. “Furthermore, no woman has ever requested or received any financial settlement from my client.”

Olivia Munn said that while visiting the set of the 2004 Ratner-directed “After the Sunset” when she was still an aspiring actress, he masturbated in front of her in his trailer when she went to deliver a meal. Munn wrote about the incident in her 2010 collection of essays without naming Ratner. On a television show a year later, Ratner identified himself as the director, and claimed that he had “banged” her, something he later said was not true. The same year her book was published, Munn ran into Ratner at a party thrown by Creative Artists Agency and he boasted of ejaculating on magazine covers featuring her image, she told The Times.

She said that persistent false rumors that they had been intimate have infuriated her, prompting her to talk to The Times in support of other women who are “brave enough to speak up.”

“I’ve made specific, conscientious choices not to work with Brett Ratner,” Munn said.

“It feels as if I keep going up against the same bully at school who just won’t quit,” she said. “You just hope that enough people believe the truth and for enough time to pass so that you can’t be connected to him anymore.”

Ratner “vehemently disputes” Munn’s allegations, Singer said.

Actress Jaime Ray Newman said Ratner put it more bluntly to her, explaining in vulgar terms that he needed sex — not alcohol or drugs.

Newman said she encountered Ratner in 2005 when they were both in first class on an Air Canada flight. The filmmaker swapped seats with his assistant before departure so he could be next to her, she said. Newman, who was on her way to shoot her first major acting role on the TV show “Supernatural,” was excited to talk with a “famous director” about to helm “X-Men: The Last Stand,” she said.

Within five minutes of the plane taking off, she said, Ratner began loudly describing sex acts he wanted to perform on her in explicit detail. He also showed her nude photos of his then-girlfriend, said Newman, 39, who stars on Netflix’s forthcoming “The Punisher.”

“He was graphically describing giving me oral sex and how he was addicted to it,” she said.

Newman said she was so shaken by the encounter that she immediately told a handful of people about it. Both her mother and a friend confirmed to The Times that the actress shared details shortly after the flight.

Ratner, through his attorney, denied that the incident occurred, referring to it as a “ridiculous claim.”

Actress Katharine Towne also described an aggressive come-on by Ratner that left her so uncomfortable that she said she still vividly remembers the incident years later. She said she met the director in L.A. around 2005 at a party in a movie star’s home, where he made unwanted advances. Ratner, she said, was persistent, “making it evident that he had one motive” — to sleep with her.

“He started to come on to me in a way that was so extreme,” said Towne, 39, whose credits include the film “What Lies Beneath.” The actress, who is the daughter of “Chinatown” screenwriter Robert Towne, excused herself. Ratner followed her into a bathroom.

“I think it’s pretty aggressive to go in the bathroom with someone you don’t know and close the door,” Towne said.

She said she was nervous, and tried to make a joke about her weight: “I don’t even know what you want with me. I’m kind of chubby right now.” He was undeterred. “I like ’em chubby sometimes,” she said Ratner replied. Towne gave Ratner her number, hoping to placate him. Ratner’s assistant called her for the next six months, unsuccessfully trying to arrange a dinner for her and the filmmaker, she said.

Ratner’s attorney Singer called Towne’s account “absurd.” “Even if hypothetically this incident occurred exactly as claimed, how is flirting at a party, complimenting a woman on her appearance, and calling her to ask her for a date wrongful conduct?” Singer said.

Viewing all 73339 articles
Browse latest View live




Latest Images