“I felt the same pain that my father felt on that day when he was screaming, ‘I can’t breathe.” — Erica Garner

Erica Garner was only 27-years old when she died on December 30, 2017. She was the mother of two children, one of whom was eight years old and the other just four months old. Ms. Garner became famous when father, Eric Garner, was murdered by New York City police on July 14, 2014. The killing was filmed and the world heard his last words, “I can’t breathe.”

Most police murder victims die unknown and their deaths are rarely even investigated. Garner was killed when thousands of people mobilized in mass protest across the country over the issue of police homicides. Because of that pressure the City of New York went through the motions of prosecuting his killer, Daniel Pantaleo. But the grand jury in the conservative and mostly white borough of Staten Island refused to indict. Pantaleo is still on the force and even received an increase in pay when he earned over time for court appearances.

Ms. Garner was left to deal with her father’s death as best she could. She was an ordinary young woman, inexperienced in political activism or media relations. Yet she overcame what would be considered short comings by taking the simplest and most basic action. She spoke up.

Barack Obama’s Justice Department only prosecuted two cases of police brutality and Eric Garner’s was not among them. Obama’s response to demands was phony, meant to give the appearance of action when none was taken. He sent scoundrels like Al Sharpton to Ferguson, Missouri but only for show. Obama would even meet with activists and family members when he thought he could get political cover by doing so. But he never gave Eric Garner or his family the justice that he had the power to give.

He met Ms. Garner on one occasion but because of her agitation. In July 2016 Alton Sterling and Philando Castille also died in on-camera police murders. In Dallas, Texas a man named Micah Xavier Johnson exacted revenge by killing five police officers in that city. Johnson was himself killed by police using a remote bombing device to do the deed. Gavin Long did the same in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, killing three police before he too died at the hands of other officers.

The realization that Johnson and Long changed the political conversation forced the Obama administration to hastily stage a dog and pony show entitled “The President and the People: A National Conversation.” Ms. Garner was invited to attend the nationally televised town hall along with other relatives of police murder victims. But the attempt at window dressing was not completely successful because she refused to be silent.
The ulterior motives were so obvious that Black Lives Matter co-founder Patrice Cullors called the town hall “a shit show.” “It was honestly one of the worst experiences you could’ve put families through. It was all about apologizing about the cops, it was just a mess.” In short, it was vintage Obama. He wanted to dampen black people’s justifiable anger and put a happy face on the system’s criminality.

To her credit, Erica Garner exposed emperor Obama’s nakedness. Neither she nor any of the other families were permitted to ask questions. She loudly proclaimed that they had been used, “railroaded ” as she put it. She asked an important question, “A black person has to yell to be heard?” Of course the answer is yes. It has always been yes. When her words threatened to ruin the Obama effort at damage control she was allowed to speak with him briefly.

Video of the conversation shows him in all of his hollow glory. He was clearly uninterested in Ms. Garner, mouthing condolences but making excuses for inaction. He barely hid the irritation he felt as he was forced to speak with her.

But Erica Garner’s best efforts couldn’t move the system and she had challenges in her personal life as well. Early in 2017 she was pregnant and assaulted by her child’s father. According to her mother she was diagnosed with an enlarged heart and suffered a heart attack shortly after giving birth. A second heart attack on Christmas Eve killed her.

The stories of the survivors end this way all too often. They suffer trying to do what it is impossible, act on their own against a system that sanctifies police murder of black people. One could say that Pantaleo killer her when he killed her father. Then again the Obama administration chose not to give her justice and they were accessories too. As a black woman she lived in a society that didn’t value her life and that fails to provide basic health care outcomes. There are many perpetrators in this sad story.

But she isn’t alone. Ramsey Orta filmed Eric Garner’s death and police retaliated by setting him up in a drug deal. He is serving four years in prison and says he regrets having ever been involved. Erica Garner is one of many NYPD victims. Her story is one of bravery but also one of caution. Just weeks before her fatal heart attack she spoke of how “the system beats you down.” All too often the beat down is deadly.

The Israeli government is planning a series of measures aimed at fully denying Palestinians their legal rights in Jerusalem and precluding any peace settlement based on sharing the city between Israel and a future Palestinian state.

One of the most aggressive measures to date is a bill that was approved by the Israeli Knesset on Tuesday. The bill, which passed with the support of Israel’s ruling right-wing and far-right coalition, has several dangerous stipulations.

According to the bill, the backing of two-thirds of the Knesset is required for Israel to relinquish sovereignty over any part of Jerusalem. International law insists that Israel has no sovereignty over East Jerusalem, illegally occupied and annexed in 1967 and 1980 respectively.

An equally disturbing stipulation in the bill is that it removes two Palestinian neighborhoods from the municipal jurisdiction of the city. The affected neighborhoods are Kafr Aqab and the Shuafat refugee camp.

By doing so, the Israeli government has achieved another milestone in its demographic war on Palestinians.

It is important to note that the two Palestinian areas are located on the other side of what Israel refers to as the “Separation Wall.” This move confirms the assumption that the wall was built around Palestinian areas that Israel plans to annex in the future. Now that the wall construction is at an advanced stage, the process of annexation seems to have begun.

But the latest bill — dubbed by Palestinians as the “race law” for its aims at emptying Jerusalem of Palestinians and increasing the number of the city’s Jewish settlers — is a rewritten version of an earlier bill. The “Greater Jerusalem Law,” which was poised to win a majority vote at the Knesset, was only shelved temporarily.

The delayed bill called for expanding the municipal boundaries of Jerusalem to include major illegal Jewish settlements in the West Bank, including Ma’ale Adumim and the Gush Etzion cluster. Moreover, it endeavored to bring 150,000 Jewish settlers into Jerusalem as eligible voters, who would naturally tip the political scene more to the right.

Concurrently, the law would further demote the status of 100,000 Palestinians, who would find themselves in a politically grey area. That bill was cast aside only weeks before the US government agreed to move the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. While many in the international community were focused on what the American move would mean for the future of the region and the so-called peace process, few paid heed to the fact that the US and Israel had something far more consequential in mind.

News agencies at the time reported that Israel agreed to shelve a popular bill “under US pressure.” But that “pressure” only served to give President Donald Trump the time needed to formulate his own strategy and make the troubling announcement. Since then, many Palestinians were killed, hundreds wounded and more detained as Palestinians and their allies around the world displayed outrage at the US decision.

A symbolic but telling vote at the UN on Dec. 21 showed that the US and Israel stood almost entirely alone in their fight to deny Palestinians their rights in the unlawfully occupied city.

Wasting no time, Israeli lawmakers are now pushing forward with designs to further isolate Jerusalem and to empty it of its Palestinian inhabitants. They understand that the unparalleled US support must be exploited to the maximum, and that any delay on these bills would be a missed opportunity. The nature of the US-Israel coordination is indeed unprecedented. Just as the Knesset voted to approve the bill, the US moved quickly to cap any strong Palestinian reactions. That job was entrusted to US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, who has gone further than any other US official in her attempt to intimidate, and even bully, Palestinians. Haley declared that the US will cut its funding of organizations such as the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) and will only resume when the Palestinians agree to return to the peace talks. UNRWA is the main channel of support for Palestinian refugees and the US decision will further tighten the noose on a struggling Palestinian economy and the Palestinian Authority (PA), which relies mostly on international aid to survive.

Haley, of course, understands that no Palestinian leadership can engage politically with Israel and the US when the two countries refuse to accept international law as a frame of reference in the negotiations. Now the Palestinian leadership has to choose between its existing humiliation and further humiliation.

But Haley’s threat is also aimed at changing the conversation, and taking the focus away from the racist Israeli bill that will surely lead to further annexation in Jerusalem itself and throughout the West Bank.

Israel is now actively invested in a system of political apartheid in Palestine. PA officials have made many threats so far, including the exclusion of the US from the peace process and changing their demands to a one-state solution.

But there is nothing concrete so far regarding that coveted Palestinian strategy; one that is predicated on a united Palestinian leadership that truly explores new options, allies and future outlook. It is that lack of vision that compromises the Palestinian position even further, emboldening Israel to push forward with its racist laws and apartheid walls.

As I read about the demonstrations in Iran, my thoughts turn to conversations I’ve had with Iranian citizens over the past several years. From 2011-2016 I taught in a week-long summer program on public choice put on in the Republic of Georgia by the New Economic School headquartered in Tbilisi, Georgia. The program attracted students from between 25 and 35 different countries each year, and every year some students were from Iran.

I always enjoyed talking with the Iranian students, and hearing about their views on life in Iran, and their government. While I can’t claim that the students in attendance were a random selection of Iranians, one thing that came through very clearly in talking with them was a general dissatisfaction with their oppressive government.

News coverage of the demonstrations notes Iranian leaders blaming the demonstrations on foreign interference by Iran’s enemies, including Saudi Arabia, Israel, and of course the United States. While I have no doubt that political leaders in those (and other) countries would be happy to promote demonstrations against the Iranian government, I also have no doubt, from talking to Iranian citizens over the past several years, that the main source of unrest comes from Iranian citizens, not foreign governments.

The Iranians I talked with did not like the oppressive social policies in Iran, nor the heavy hand the Iranian government was playing in the economy. They were concerned about government monitoring of their activities, and potential penalties that might be imposed on them for stepping out of line in any way.

I recall one female student who was happy to have been freed from the requirement that she cover her hair with a headscarf while out of the country, but she always carried one with her to put on in case photographs were being taken. Her concern: that a photo of her without a headscarf might show up on Facebook, and be spotted by some government agent who was monitoring her activity.

Despite dissatisfaction with their government, the Iranians I talked with were hoping for incremental change leading to more freedom, and were disinclined toward any revolutionary activity. Why? Because they remembered the Revolutionary Guards crushing the widespread 2009 protests, and thought that similar demonstrations would result in similar crackdowns, and ultimately a loss of freedom.

Their oppressive and authoritarian government had intimidated them into thinking that working within the system for incremental change was the best they could hope for to give them more freedom.

With that as background, the current demonstrations in Iran are bad news for the Iranian government. If citizens really were intimidated into not speaking out against the government they believed was oppressing them, that suggests a widespread undercurrent of dissatisfaction that will only continue to surface and grow as it becomes increasingly likely that the protesters could succeed.

They did once, in 1979, which led to the Islamic Revolution that put the current system in place. Many Iranians now see that as a mistake, one they tried to rectify in 2009, only to be violently put down and, I say again, intimidated from rising up again.

Now, they are rising up again, and the silent undercurrent of dissatisfaction has the potential erupt and create major change. This is something that certainly would be welcomed by Iran’s foreign adversaries, but those foreign adversaries are not the ones behind the uprisings. Those uprisings are the result of the pent-up and repressed dissatisfaction of the citizens of Iran.

This article was published by The Beacon.

Tunisian singer Shayma Helali posted on her Instagram account the first photo from her wedding, of herself and her groom, Sayidaty magazine reported on Wednesday.

She had made a surprise visit to Tunisia and had a discreet wedding in the presence of her family and close friends, during which photography was not allowed.

Helali posted a video of diamond shoes with a letter from her husband, who she described as “the love of my life.”

The letter read: “Today is our day, a day we will share for the rest of our life, a day we will remember with happiness and love. I love you Shayma.”

Egyptian singer Saad Al-Saghir performed at the wedding, along with Tunisian singers Rami Khalil and Zaza Shamseddine Bacha, who said he had no idea the bride was Helali until he arrived at the wedding and saw her.

She is spending her honeymoon in the US after spending a day in Milan, Sayidaty reported.

One would think that the United States would have learned by now, that it is never a good idea to arm terrorist groups in different parts of the world, due to the inevitable “blowback” which eventually ensues after these violent groups determine that the USA is no longer in support of them, or when the USA wants to deny that they have any relationship with them.

We have seen this paradigm unfold countless times before, over the past few decades, with groups like Al Qaeda, Al Nusra, La Fenice, Avanguardia Nazionale, Ordine Nuovo, the Contras, Cuban Exiles, Colombian Paramilitary Organizations, Los Pepes, Kosovo Liberation Army, Jundullah, Mujahedin-e Khalq (“MEK”), and countless others designed to engage in United States sponsored terrorist activities against sovereign governments and nations that the US doesn’t like for whatever reason.

In the wake of the abject failure of the US using ISIS to destabilize, disrupt and disorient various governments throughout the Middle East, such as Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen and others, followed quickly by various ISIS-attributed terrorist attacks against the US and Europe by ISIS, President Donald Trump was swept into office in large part because the American and European people discovered this via the veritable “sieve” known as social media and the internet.

But rather than change US foreign policy to ban or cease using violent thugs to carry out US policy overseas, instead it appears that the US Government through the CIA have now adopted a smaller more surgically precise approach by supporting, through its proxy nations Israel and Saudi Arabia, smaller groups such as MEK and Jundullah, who operate primarily in tiny regions of the world, such as in and around Iran, without much of a global presence.

But like cancer, these groups have a tendency to grow uncontrollably, and then later turn on the US and Europe, when and if the latter starts to pull funding or divorce themselves from the court of public opinion through plausible denial.

This is exactly how ISIS grew into a formidable fighting force, and eventually turned on its creators, much like the Frankenstein monster in the Mary Shelley novels.

All of this must be an abject nightmare for the US FBI, DHS, ICE and DEA pull their proverbial hair out, because they must often clean up/explain the horrific domestic messes of terrorist blowback occurring on US soil when these groups inevitably turn on their paymasters, just like they are the chief law enforcement/preventative bodies that deal with the drug war, also in large part caused by the CIA’s open and clandestine support of massive drug producing/trafficking regimes in Afghanistan, Colombia, Venezuela and Mexico.

The news lately has revealed that the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia are openly funding, supporting, arming, training and providing logistical support to Jundullah and MEK in order to take down the current sovereign government of Iran.

Even though the USA, Saudi Arabia and Israel may not like the current government there, what right do they have to engage in this type of state sponsored terrorist behavior?

There is a reason why various governments throughout the world have stood the test of time, and exist in their present states.

Perhaps their people wanted it, or perhaps there was need for that specific type of ideology or mode of governance, but unless and until those governments actively target or harm Americans, the US has absolutely no business getting involved with those groups, and indeed, has invariably and inevitably lived to regret it countless times, in nearly 100% of all cases.

By Umar Manzoor Shah

A new religious debate has been ignited in India after Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that Muslim women can break tradition by undertaking the Islamic pilgrimage of Hajj without a male partner.

Muslims groups began to protest the prime minister’s interference in what they called a religious matter for Muslims in which governments have no mandate.

The uproar began after Modi announced that he wanted his Ministry of Minority Affairs to ensure that all women who have applied to travel alone be allowed to attend the Hajj.

The annual Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca is considered sacred by Muslims. It has been declared a mandatory religious duty for adult Muslims that must be carried out at least once in their lifetime provided they are physically and financially capable of undertaking the journey.

India has some 172 million Muslims, forming 14.2 percent of its 1.3 billion people, mostly Hindus. The government also allots travel subsidies for poor Muslims to make the pilgrimage.

“Injustice was being rendered to Muslim women. Muslim women in India did not have this right to travel alone and perform Hajj. And I’m glad that our government paid heed to this matter,” Modi announced in his monthly radio address to the nation.

Opposition came soon after the announcement.

The All India Muslim Personal Law Board, which acts as a court for Islamic jurisprudence, said Modi has no mandate to alter the rules set by any religion. It said Hajj is a religious issue that cannot be decided by the government.

Islamic scholar Maulana Abdul Hamid Azhari, the board’s secretary, said most Muslims follow the guidelines set by Islam. “This is a religious issue and not something to be brought up in legislation and passed in the parliament,” he said.

The cleric said a Muslim woman is forbidden to travel for longer than three days or more than 78 miles without a male guardian, whether for Hajj or to any other place. He said if a woman does not have a mehram (male guardian) and does not have the funds to take a male guardian with her to Hajj, then she is exempted from the obligation.

Moulana Azhar Ali Shah, a religious cleric based in Kashmir, said Islam dictates that a woman must be accompanied by her husband if she wants to go to the Hajj.

“If the husband of a women is not allowed, then she must be accompanied by a mehram, which means a male relative with whom she is permanently forbidden to marry by Islam such as a brother, uncle, father or grandfather,” he said.

Kashmiri separatists, who have worked to free the Muslim-dominated Kashmir region from India, opposed Modi’s idea. They alleged it was part of Modi’s attempt to support the idea of his Bharatiya Janata Party to make India a totally Hindu nation.

Syed Ali Geelani, 89, said the prime minister’s interference in religious matters was unacceptable.

“It has proved beyond doubt that Hindu fanatical factions are promoting their specific and biased dogma and are hell-bent on pro­claiming India as a Hindu nation,” he said.

However, liberal Muslims were quick to counter this view.

Safura Farooqi, a research scholar based in New Delhi, said the restrictions on Muslim women to travel alone were being imposed without a modern context.

She said the directions were originally imposed to ensure women’s safety, especially when air travel was unavailable.

“Haven’t you seen Muslim women travelling the world alone nowadays. If they can visit other countries alone, why can’t they perform Hajj without a male partner?” Safura asked.

By Abdulrahman Al-Rashed*

Following a stormy week in Iran, Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah has expressed his fears and those of other terrorist organizations which were created by Iran to be militant forces in the region. He blamed Iran’s crisis on the US and Saudi Arabia. The message of the Iranian protesters against the clerical regime has reached the leaders of the Arab militias and others who have been living at the expense of the Iranian people. It must have also reached their followers because they have been burying more and more of their dead in Syria, where those lives were sacrificed on behalf of the supreme leader’s regime.

Iran’s protests are purely Iranian. They are neither Saudi nor American; no outsider has anything to do with them. This does not mean that the international community will not help the protesters in the future if the regime continues its threats to regional countries, financing their enemies, and targeting their cities with missiles. Iran today is no longer a fortress; rather, it is an open space for those who want to help the angry protesters.

What happened in Iran is very significant. Demonstrations spread to about 50 cities around the country, and Iranians from all sects and ethnicities participated in them: Persians, Azeris, Kurds, Baluchis, Arabs, Shiites, Sunnis — even some clerics in the city of Qom itself. The participation of all these factions in the protests means that the regime does not any longer have a popular base, and this is the greatest danger the protests have shown.

The uprising of the Iranian people alarmed Nasrallah and other Shiite militia leaders in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, as well as leaders of the radical Shiite opposition in Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and other countries. It also threatens secret cells in Europe, South America, and Southeast Asia.

The clerical regime in Iran represents the radical Shiite ideology, and it inspires the Sunni Daesh organization in its aspirations to build an extremist Caliphate. The ayatollah’s regime runs a state of preachers, militias, suicide bombers, secret services, and secret cells. In order to finance its operations, it launders money and smuggles drugs. Its fondness for dominance has no limits, and its expansion continues in many parts of the region.

And just as the international community worked collectively in fighting Al-Qaeda and Daesh, many countries around the world have begun to recognize Iran as a danger which not only threatens Middle Eastern countries but also threatens to spread on the international level.

The demonstrations are an important development, weakening the Iranian regime which has become besieged by Iranians from the inside and regional and international forces from the outside. The two sides will force it either to change or to fall. Its first responsibility is to dismantle the international terrorist network which threatens international stability and drains the resources of the Iranian people. Iraqi Hezbollah, Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, the Fatemiyoun Division in Afghanistan, Al-Nujaba and Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq in Iraq, the Islamic Front for the Liberation of Bahrain, Hezbollah Al-Hejaz, the Islamic Movement in Nigeria, the Jaish-e-Mohammed in Pakistan, and others — all of them form a huge network of terrorist organizations controlled by the ayatollah’s regime in Tehran through the Revolutionary Guards.

Iran after the demonstrations on the last Thursday of 2017 is not the same Iran that we knew before. It is now more prone to local upheavals which are more dangerous than American threats.

• Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a veteran columnist. He is the former general manager of Al Arabiya news channel, and former editor in chief of Asharq Al-Awsat.

The US Department of State announced that the Secretary re-designated Burma, China, Eritrea, Iran, North Korea, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan as Countries of Particular Concern on Dec. 22, 2017. The Secretary also placed Pakistan on a Special Watch List for severe violations of religious freedom, announced US State Department spokesperson Heather Nauert.

“In far too many places around the globe, people continue to be persecuted, unjustly prosecuted, or imprisoned for exercising their right to freedom of religion or belief,” Nauert said in a statement, adding, “Today, a number of governments infringe upon individuals’ ability to adopt, change, or renounce their religion or belief, worship in accordance with their religion or beliefs, or be free from coercion to practice a particular religion or belief.”

Nauert said that in accordance with the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998, the Secretary of State annually designates governments that have engaged in or tolerated systematic, ongoing, and egregious violations of religious freedom as “Countries of Particular Concern”.

The protection of religious freedom is vital to peace, stability, and prosperity, according to Nauert, who said these designations are aimed at improving the respect for religious freedom in these countries.

“We recognize that several designated countries are working to improve their respect for religious freedom; we welcome these initiatives and look forward to continued dialogue. The United States remains committed to working with governments, civil society organizations, and religious leaders to advance religious freedom around the world,” Nauert said.

(RFE/RL) — The Afghan Health Ministry says at least 11 people were killed and 25 injured when a suicide bomber blew himself up in Kabul as security personnel were conducting an operation at the scene before the attack.

“We can confirm that so far 11 bodies have been brought to our hospitals as well as 25 wounded,” the AFP news agency quoted Health Ministry spokesman Wahid Majroh as saying on January 4.

The spokesman cautioned that the toll could rise.

AFP quoted a security source as saying 20 people had been killed in the attack, which occurred about 8:30 p.m. local time.

The Islamic State (IS) militant group claimed responsibility through its Amaq news agency, although it provided no evidence to back up the claim.

‘Inhumane’ Attack

President Ashraf Ghani late on January 4 called the attack “inhumane” and against the tenets of Islam.

Witnesses told RFE/RL that the blast could be heard throughout the capital.

Kabul police spokesman Basir Mujahid said police were conducting operations against illegal drug and alcohol sales in the area and that security personnel were attempting to maintain safety among crowds that had gathered.

“Kabul police forces were there to prevent a possible protest when a suicide bomber approached them and detonated his suicide vest,” Mujahid said.

Tolo News reported that local residents had participated in a street demonstration in the area earlier in the day.

Recent Incidents

Kabul has been hit hard by terror attacks attributed to Taliban, Islamic State (IS), and other militants operating in the country.

On December 29, Afghan authorities said at least 41 people were killed and 84 wounded by multiple bomb blasts at a Shi’ite cultural center in Kabul.

IS claimed responsibility for the December 28 attack, which Afghan President Ashraf Ghani called a “crime against humanity” committed by terrorists.

The Sunni extremist group has recently increased its attacks against Shi’a in Afghanistan — particularly in Kabul.

U.S. forces led an invasion to drive Taliban extremists from power after Al-Qaeda militants whose leaders were sheltering in Afghanistan carried out the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States.

U.S. troops have remained in the country, although at greatly reduced numbers, helping to train and support Afghan forces in their battles against the militant groups.

French President Emmanuel Macron said this week that he plans to propose a law to censor misinformation, also known as “fake news,” and criminally punish those who publish it.

“When fake news are spread, it will be possible to go to a judge…and if appropriate have content taken down, user accounts deleted and ultimately websites blocked,” Macron said in a speech to journalists at the Élysée Palace, according to Politico Europe.

Macron also said news platforms will be burdened with more responsibility to restrict the spread of misinformation.

“Platforms will have more transparency obligations regarding sponsored content to make public the identity of sponsors and of those who control them, but also limits on the amounts that can be used to sponsor this content,” he said.

During election seasons, the law would give power to the government to block websites it considers to be propagators of misinformation and fight “any attempt at destabilization” by media entities controlled by foreign states.

“If we want to protect liberal democracies, we must be strong and have clear rules,” Macron said, according to the Guardian.

During last year’s presidential election, Macron blasted Russia-owned news outlets RT and Sputnik for publishing stories about him that he said were not true.

“Russia Today and Sputnik did not behave as media organizations and journalists, but as agencies of influence and propaganda, lying propaganda — no more, no less,” Macron said in May.

The European Union recently drafted legislation to restrict the spread of information governments consider to be false, but media analysts express doubt such laws would hold up due to the various restrictions in different countries throughout the region.

Original source

Studies in mice and in tissue cultures suggest that giving vitamin C with tuberculosis drugs could reduce the unusually long time it takes these drugs to eradicate this pathogen. The research is published in Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy, a journal of the American Society for Microbiology.

In the study, the investigators treated Mycobacterium tuberculosis-infected mice with anti-tuberculosis drugs or vitamin C alone, or the drugs and vitamin C together. They measured M. tuberculosis (Mtb) organ burdens at four and six weeks post treatment.

Vitamin C had no activity by itself, but in two independent experiments, the combination of vitamin C with the first-line TB drugs, isoniazid and rifampicin, reduced the organ burdens faster than the two drugs without vitamin C, said first author Catherine J. Vilcheze, Ph.D. Instructor, Department of Microbiology & Immunology, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY. Experiments in infected tissue cultures demonstrated similar results, shortening the time to sterilization of the tissue culture by seven days.

“Our study shows that the addition of vitamin C to TB drug treatment potentiates the killing of Mtb and could shorten TB chemotherapy,” said principal investigator William R. Jacobs, Jr., PhD., Investigator, Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Einstein College of Medicine. That’s important because treatment of drug susceptible tuberculosis takes six months, “resulting in some treatment mismanagement, potentially leading to the emergence and spread of drug-resistant TB,” said Dr. Jacobs.

Such long term treatment is needed for tuberculosis because a subpopulation of Mtb cells can form Mtb persister cells, dormant cells that are virtually impervious to antimicrobials.

In earlier studies, the investigators discovered that while high levels of vitamin C will kill actively dividing cells, lower concentrations will stimulate respiration and prevent the formation of persisters, said Dr. Jacobs. Then, in the presence of TB drugs, that increased respiration will lead to rapid death of the cells. “Thus in our new paper, we postulate that vitamin C is stimulating respiration of the Mtb cells in mice, thus enabling the action of isoniazid and rifampicin.”

A French study conducted in 1948 suggested that vitamin C was safe for humans, and potentially beneficial. Investigators gave high daily doses of vitamin C to terminally ill patients with no side effects. While the infection did not regress, that study characterized other effects as “remarkable:” bedridden patients regained appetite and physical activity.

Tuberculosis is a major worldwide public health problem, infecting the lungs and other organ systems. In 2016, the disease sickened more than 10 million people worldwide, and killed 1.7 million. In the United States, cases number in the low thousands, out of a population of around 3,30 million. Treatment of multidrug resistant TB takes at least two years, and requires use of toxic second-line TB drugs with severe side effects.

“Vitamin C is known to be safe and our current mouse studies suggest that vitamin C could enhance TB chemotherapy,” said Dr. Jacobs. “A clinical trial of vitamin C with TB chemotherapies could demonstrate that such an adjunct therapy could reduce patients’ exposure to toxic TB drugs and also reduce the spread of TB from infected individuals.”

In 1870, explorer Adolf Erik Nordenskiöld, trekking across the barren and remote ice cap of Greenland, saw something most people wouldn’t expect in such an empty, inhospitable landscape: haze.

Nordenskiöld’s record of the haze was among the first evidence that air pollution around the northern hemisphere can travel toward the pole and degrade air quality in the Arctic. Now, a study from University of Utah atmospheric scientist Tim Garrett and colleagues finds that the air in the Arctic is extraordinarily sensitive to air pollution, and that particulate matter may spur Arctic cloud formation. These clouds, Garrett writes, can act as a blanket, further warming an already-changing Arctic.

“The Arctic climate is delicate, just as the ecosystems present there,” Garrett said. “The clouds are right at the edge of their existence and they have a big impact on local climate. It looks like clouds there are especially sensitive to air pollution.” The study is published in Geophysical Research Letters.

Pollution heading north

Garrett said that early Arctic explorers’ notes show that air pollution has been traveling northward for nearly 150 years or more. “This pollution would naturally get blown northward because that’s the dominant circulation pattern to move from lower latitudes toward the poles,” he said. Once in the Arctic, the pollution becomes trapped under a temperature inversion, much like the inversions that Salt Lake City experiences every winter. In an inversion, a cap of warm air sits over a pool of cold air, preventing the accumulated bad air from escaping.

Others have studied which regions contribute to Arctic pollution. Northeast Asia is a significant contributor. So are sources in the far north of Europe.

“They have far more direct access to the Arctic,” Garrett said. “Pollution sources there don’t get diluted throughout the atmosphere.”

Scientists have been interested in the effects of pollution on Arctic clouds because of their potential warming effect. In other parts of the world, clouds can cool the surface because their white color reflects solar energy back out into space.

“In the Arctic, the cooling effect isn’t as large because the sea-ice at the surface is already bright,” Garrett said. “Just as clouds reflect radiation efficiently, they also absorb radiation efficiently and re-emit that energy back to warm the surface.” Droplets of water can form around particulate matter in the air. More particles make for more droplets, which makes for a cloud that warms the surface more.

Seeing through the clouds

But quantifying the relationship between air pollution and clouds has been difficult. Scientists can only sample air pollution in clouds by flying through them, a method that can’t cover much ground or a long time period. Satellite images can detect aerosol pollution in the air – but not through clouds.

“We’ll look at the clouds at one place and hope that the aerosols nearby are representative of the aerosols where the cloud is,” said Garrett. “They’re not going to be. The cloud is there because it’s in a different meteorological air mass than where the clear sky is.”

So Garrett and his colleagues, including U graduate Quentin Coopman, needed a different approach. Atmospheric models, it turns out, do a good job of tracking the movements of air pollution around the Earth. Using global inventories of pollution sources, they simulate air pollution plumes so that satellites can observe what happens when these modeled plumes interact with Arctic clouds. The model allowed the researchers to study air pollution and clouds at the same time and place and also take into account the meteorological conditions. They could be sure the effects they were seeing weren’t just natural meteorological variations in normal cloud-forming conditions.

Highly sensitive clouds

The research team found that clouds in the Arctic were two to eight times more sensitive to air pollution than clouds at other latitudes. They don’t know for sure why yet, but hypothesize it may have to do with the stillness of the Arctic air mass. Without the air turbulence seen at mid-latitudes, the Arctic air can be easily perturbed by airborne particulates.

One factor the clouds were not sensitive to, however, was smoke from forest fires. “It’s not that forest fires don’t have the potential,” Garrett said, “it’s just that the plumes from these fires didn’t end up in the same place as clouds.” Air pollution attributable to human activities outpaced the influence of forest fires on Arctic clouds by a factor of around 100:1.

This gives Garrett hope. Particulate matter is an airborne pollutant that can be controlled relatively easily, compared to pollutants like carbon dioxide. Controlling current particulate matter sources could ease pollution in the Arctic, decrease cloud cover, and slow down warming. All of those gains could be offset, other researchers have suggested, if the Arctic becomes a shipping route and sees industrialization and development. Emissions from those activities could have a disproportionate effect on Arctic clouds compared to emissions from other parts of the world, Garrett said.

“The Arctic is changing incredibly rapidly,” he said. “Much more rapidly than the rest of the world, which is changing rapidly enough.”

Genetic analysis of ancient DNA from a 6-week-old infant found at an Interior Alaska archaeological site has revealed a previously unknown population of ancient people in North America.

The findings, published in the Jan. 3 edition of the journal Nature, represent a major shift in scientists’ theories about how humans populated North America. The researchers have named the new group “Ancient Beringians.”

“We didn’t know this population existed,” said Ben Potter, one of the lead authors of the study and a professor of anthropology at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. “These data also provide the first direct evidence of the initial founding Native American population, which sheds new light on how these early populations were migrating and settling throughout North America.”

Genetic analysis and demographic modeling, which help scientists draw connections among groups of people over time, indicate that a single founding ancestral Native American group split from East Asians about 35,000 year ago. Then, about 20,000 years ago, that group split into two groups: the Ancient Beringians and the ancestors of all other Native Americans. Lead authors J. Victor Moreno-Mayar, Eske Willerslev and the team at the Centre for GeoGenetics at the University of Copenhagen’s Natural History Museum of Denmark completed the genetics work.

The DNA from the infant, named “Xach’itee’aanenh T’eede Gaay” (sunrise girl-child) by the local indigenous community, has provided an unprecedented window into the history of her people, Potter said. She and a younger female infant found at the Upward Sun River site in 2013 lived about 11,500 years ago and were closely related, likely first cousins. The younger infant has been named “Ye?kaanenh T’eede Gaay” (dawn twilight girl-child).

“It would be difficult to overstate the importance of this newly revealed people to our understanding of how ancient populations came to inhabit the Americas,” Potter said. “This new information will allow us a more accurate picture of Native American prehistory. It is markedly more complex than we thought.”

The findings also suggest two new scenarios for populating the New World. One is that there were two distinct groups of people who crossed over the Beringian land bridge prior to 15,700 years ago. A second is that one group of people crossed over the land bridge and then split in Beringia into two groups: Ancient Beringians and other Native Americans, with the latter moving south of the ice sheets 15,700 years ago.

Potter’s National Science Foundation-funded work at the Upward Sun River site has spanned a decade. He said that when the science team began the analysis of the genetic material, they expected it to match the genetic profile of other northern Native American people. Instead, it matched no other known ancient population.

What this suggests is that the Ancient Beringian people remained in the Far North for thousands of years, while the ancestors of other Native American peoples spread south throughout the rest of North America. The DNA results, along with other archaeological data, suggest that Athabascan ancestors moved north again, possibly around 6,000 years ago, eventually absorbing or replacing the Ancient Beringian population and establishing deep roots in their ancestral lands.

“There is very limited genetic information about modern Alaska Athabascan people,” Potter said. “These findings create opportunities for Alaska Native people to gain new knowledge about their own connections to both the northern Native American and Ancient Beringian people.”

Researchers have identified several new genes responsible for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) including those leading to functional and structural changes in the brain and elevated levels of AD proteins in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF).

Unlike traditional AD research, this study focused on individual groups across specific on the cognitive spectrum [normal cognitive functioning or controls, mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and AD cases]. As opposed to the typical study design which combines all such persons into a single group or focuses only on cognitively healthy persons, this research identified several novel genetic associations within multiple subgroups.

According to the researchers these associations are not evident when comparing AD cases to controls or within AD cases, suggesting that these signals underlie processes before onset of AD. As such, these genes may be more attractive targets for drug development because it is increasingly recognized that effective drugs will be those given to persons before or shortly after they develop cognitive impairment.

The researchers tested the association between AD-related brain MRI measures, logical memory test scores and CSF levels of two AD proteins (amyloid-beta and tau) with several million genetic markers (called SNPs) across the genome in a sample of 1,189 participants of the Alzheimer Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) study. They then examined the biological significance of the top-ranked associated SNPs and genes using several datasets containing information about gene expression in parts of the brain most affected by AD.

Two of the study-wide significant genes identified in the normal cognitive functioning group, SRRM4 and MTUS1, are involved in neuronal signaling, development and loss. Another gene identified in this group, GRIN2B, encodes a subunit of a receptor that has roles in resilience of neurons and memory.

“Our findings provide important insight about biological mechanisms leading to Alzheimer disease, especially at stages of the disease before symptoms occur,” said Lindsay A. Farrer, PhD, Distinguished Professor of Genetics and Chief of the Biomedical Genetics section at Boston University School of Medicine, and principal investigator of the study. “The novel genes we identified may be potential targets for developing new treatments that might delay or even prevent onset of symptoms of this insidious disease.”

Iran’s public prosecutor has blamed the CIA, Israel and Saudi Arabia for stirring unrest in the Islamic Republic which resulted in the deaths of more than 20 people over the last week.

Mohammad Jafar Montazeri said Thursday that the “main protector” of the agitation plan was an American national called Michael Andrea, a man he claims is a former CIA agent who formed a group tasked with fermenting discord in the country.

The state prosecutor also pointed to Israel and Saudi Arabia. Montazeri is quoted in Iran’s Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) as saying that Andrea, and an unnamed officer affiliated with Israel’s spy agency Mossad, masterminded the plot dubbed the ‘Consequential Convergence Doctrine’ and that Saudi Arabia picked up the bill.

Montazeri’s comments echo those of the country’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who earlier claimed that enemies of Iran are using money, weapons and political warfare to create problems for the country’s leaders.

As for the recent days’ developments [in the country], enemies have been united to create problems for the Islamic system by using various means… Including money, weapons, politics and security apparatus,” Khamenei said.

“I have a lot more to say about these developments but will share them with our dear people at an appropriate time,” he added.

Also Thursday, Iran’s Ambassador to the UN, Gholamali Khoshroo, accused the US of “grotesque” interference in his country’s affairs, and also of encouraging regime change in the Islamic Republic. He also blasted Donald Trump for inciting “disruptive acts.”

“The current US administration has crossed every limit in flouting rules and principles of international law governing the civilized conduct of international relations,” Khoshroo said in a letter to the UN.

Trump had previously tweeted that “The U.S. is watching!” as a wave of protests erupted last Thursday, with people said to be demonstrating against rising food prices, unemployment, and the overall economic situation. A reported 22 people died as the government cracked down on protesters.

(EurActiv) — Blockading Cuba is not the solution, the European Union’s foreign policy chief said January 3 on a trip aimed at strengthening ties with Havana, after Washington tightened restrictions on the island.

Much of the half-century-old US economic embargo against Cuba remains entrenched in law, but under former president Barack Obama federal authorities began to loosen some rules — something his successor Donald Trump vowed to reverse.

“The blockade (of Cuba) is not the solution. The Europeans have told our American friends many times; we have affirmed it in the United Nations,” Federica Mogherini said during a presentation to students and teachers in Havana.

“We know well that the sole effect of the blockade is to worsen the quality of life of women, men and children,” she said.

“The blockade is obsolete, it is illegal,” Mogherini said.

Mogherini’s remarks came on the first of a two-day visit to Cuba that will include meetings with officials with the aim of a “swift joint implementation of the Political Dialogue and Cooperation Agreement (PDCA) between the EU and Cuba,” according to an EU statement.

The agreement covers dialogue and cooperation on issues such as human rights, migration and drugs and governance, and commercial exchanges.

US-Cuba ties began to warm when Obama was in office, with the countries exchanging ambassadors in 2015 for the first time since 1961, but Trump has taken a different approach.

In June Trump appeared in Miami before a cheering crowd of Cuban-Americans, including veterans of the failed CIA-backed Bay of Pigs invasion, to vow to reverse Obama’s measures.

In November, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin laid out a series of revived rules.

Under the directives, Americans will be forbidden from doing business with entities on a State Department list headed by the Cuban defense and interior ministries.

Also on the list are five major holding companies with ties to Raul Castro’s government or military, and which between them control much of the organized tourism sector.

The list goes on to list dozens of major hotels in Havana and several resorts, along with five Caribbean marinas, ten stores in touristy Old Havana and industries serving the military.

By Madalin Necsutu

National bank data show Moldova’s principal foreign investors are now from EU countries – while Russia has dropped from first place to sixth in the investment league table.

Moldova’s National Bank on Thursday said Russian investors no longer hold first place among foreign investors in the country, in terms of direct investment in domestic economic stock.

Citing new data, it said that The Netherlands and Spain took first and second place in the ranking of foreign investors. Third place went to France, followed by Cyprus and Romania.

The Russian Federation was the leader among foreign investors in Moldova until 2016, dropping sharply last year to sixth position in the rankings.

Economic ties between Russia and Moldova shrank dramatically after Russia placed an embargo on Moldovan goods in 2013 and 2014, in order to persuade Chisinau to abandon the European path its government had chosen.

Also, according to the National Bank, foreign investment grew in 2017 by 17.7 percent compared to 2016, from just over 3 billion US dollars to 3.5 billion dollars, a rise of just over 536 million dollars.

A report from Expert-Group, an economic think tank in Moldova, said the numbers could have been higher had the government pursued real reforms in the rule of law that appeal to investors and provide a safer business environment for them.

Moldova’s GDP grew by 4 per cent in 2017, the bank said. The authorities had expected 6 percent. The fall in the estimate was blamed on bad weather conditions. The Expert-Group report predicts economic growth of between 3.1 and 4.8 percent.

All eyes are on Iran. On December 28, as if from nowhere, protests broke out in Iran’s second most populous city, Mashhad – out in the far east, near the Turkmenistan and Afghanistan border. The protests moved with deliberate speed across the country, to Kermanshah in the west and Bandar Abbas in the south. Tehran was not spared, although it is not the epicenter of the protests. This is unlike the Green Movement of 2009, when Tehran’s reform-minded citizens came onto the streets angry with what they saw as a stolen election. It is unlike the student uprisings of 1999, again centered in Tehran, when students protested over the closure of the reform newspaper Salam.

Those were protests of a rising middle-class, throttled by social sanctions and by political limitations. Their protests culminated in the election of President Hassan Rouhani, who is the current standard bearer of their hopes. Social sanctions have been eased in Tehran – women openly sit in public without the veil (the police in Tehran had said earlier last year that they would not arrest women who did not wear the hijab). Even political rights are now somewhat available to the reformers. Ali Shamkhani, secretary of the National Security Council, said that restrictions on imprisoned reformist leaders would be lifted.

The current wave of protests is characterized not so much by a desire for an expanded political system, the terms of previous ‘reform’ protests. This is an upsurge against the privations in Iran – unemployment, deprivation and hopelessness. The sharpness of the slogans – even against the Supreme Leader of the country – indicates the level of anger at the failure of the Islamic Republic to deliver the basic needs of a growing and youthful population. The protests were no surprise to those who had watched almost weekly working-class actions in factories and oil facilities as well as protests by retirees and those who had lost money in the banking crisis. These actions raised the confidence of the working-class and the lower middle class, both of whom had seen their standard of living plummet.

Oil Revolts

What is taking place in Iran is not unlike what is taking place across the oil-producing states from Venezuela to Saudi Arabia. Oil prices began to drop sharply in the second half of 2014 as a result of high output from Saudi Arabia and their Gulf allies. Iraqi and Libyan oil production had fallen, so it appeared on the surface that the Saudis and their Gulf allies were merely covering that shortfall. But as supply far outpaced demand the volume of oil that the Gulf countries produced seemed to have a political motive. It hurt Iran, already wracked by the UN, European Union and US sanctions, but it also hit Russia and Venezuela. The West and the Saudis saw these three countries – Iran, Russia and Venezuela – as adversaries. It was quite clear that this was a political move.

Unrest in Venezuela mirrors that in Iran. Both countries – since the 1940s – have been reliant upon oil exports for their own development agenda, both countries failed to diversify their economies beyond oil and both countries relied upon depleted national budgets to provide social welfare to their populations. It was this narrowed economic and political landscape that produced the Iranian Revolution of 1978-79 and the Venezuelan Revolution of 1989-1999. The political outcomes in both were different, with the former dynamic being led and seized by the Islamic clerics and the latter dynamic being led and seized by the Bolivarian socialists.

Both Iran and Venezuela – from different sides of the political spectrum – found themselves in the gun-sights of the United States and its Western allies. It was this that led to the sanctions regimes against both – pushed by the United States government. The sanctions against Iran and Venezuela have been at different intensities, with Iran being hit harder over the past decade. Neither Iran nor Venezuela was able to effectively find an exit from the sanctions regimes or to create regional or alternative trade networks that would earn them foreign exchange and investment as well as enhance their ability to be less dependent on Western networks of finance and investment.

Raised Expectations

Iran’s government – led by Hasan Rouhani – had raised the expectations of the population when it negotiated the nuclear deal with the West and the United Nations in 2015. The sanctions cost Iran more than $160 billion in oil revenues since 2012. This penalty was borne by ordinary Iranians, who saw their standard of living fall and their aspirations for the future narrow. Rouhani had said that the nuclear deal would attract investment into the country and free up Iran from the murderous sanctions regime.

But, since the nuclear deal, the handcuffs on Iran remain. The US – under Trump – tightened non-nuclear sanctions. Trump’s belligerence towards Iran has stayed the hand of many transnational firms that had earlier expressed interest in making investments inside Iran. Rouhani’s bet has not really paid off. The 2015 nuclear deal, an achievement in its own right, did not fully provide the kind of relief needed for the Iranian population. Expectations were raised, but little has been delivered.

As part of his pledge to openness, Rouhani’s government released details of its budget to the public in early December 2017. Rouhani pledged to spend about $100 billion – less than a third of his draft budget – on public service programmes for job creation and for a new social security programme. Inflation remains a problem, as do the 840,000 young Iranians who will enter the workforce next year.

Confidence in Rouhani’s budget was dampened when the public got to see how much money goes towards the clergy-dominated institutions. For example, in the city of Mashhad, where the protests began, the Astan-e Quds Razavi, Iran’s largest endowment, a foundation that controls a shrine in the city, owns 43% of the land in the city and has an income near $150 million per year. In the 2017 presidential election, Ibrahim Raisi, the candidate of the Supreme Leader Khamenei and head of Astan-e Quds Razavi, openly said that Khamenei had allowed the endowment not to pay taxes. This rattled a population that saw these institutions as sponges on a state that had turned its back on ordinary Iranians. All of this produced a deep sense of disquiet amongst those who don’t see themselves being the beneficiaries of the nuclear deal.

Over 2016, Iran’s growth rate did rise as oil left the country and pent-up demand inside Iran was allowed to be fulfilled. The growth rate rose to a respectable 7.4%. But the danger signal here is that the non-oil growth rate was a mere 0.9%. This was an oil-driven recovery and it was dependent on oil prices. Before he came to power in 1979, Ayatollah Khomeini had said, ‘Economics is for donkeys.’ The Islamic Republic – unlike the Bolivarian government in Venezuela – made little attempt to diversify the economy and prepare for a post-oil future. Rather it relied upon its oil revenues for both its domestic policy and its foreign policy (including the support to the Lebanese political force – Hezbollah – and the Syrian government). Iran remained vulnerable as long as its economic power was dependent on oil. Its vulnerabilities are now on display.

Official unemployment sits at 12.7%, but this is a very inaccurate figure. Sources in Iran say that the youth unemployment rate might even be as high as 50%. To bring down inflation the government has steadily eliminated subsidies on energy and bread. Prices of these goods have gone up – a decisive factor in the protests. It is important to point out that in anticipation of the end of these subsidies, the government began a universal cash transfer scheme in 2010, which has been attributed to a decline in poverty from 13.1% (2009) to 8.1% (2013). But the fact of a decline in poverty did nothing to the anger at the subsidy cuts that came when prices of basic goods (energy and bread) rose, despite the fact that overall inflation declined. In fact, by 2014, the poverty rate began to rise again – a sign that Rouhani’s policy of inflation control has been a direct attack on the Iranian working-class and lower middle-class.

There is something vulgar about the way Trump and Netanyahu and their ilk are fanning on the protests in Iran. After all, it is the US-Israeli policy to strangle Iran that has created the conditions for these protests. But the end of the sanctions has condensed frustration in the government of Rouhani and in the Islamic Republic itself – not on the West’s continued policies. Politically Trump and Netanyahu benefit from Obama’s nuclear deal; it has made it appear as if the West is no longer responsible for the crisis in Iran.

Tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets. But tens of thousands more followed to defend the Islamic Republic. These are tense times for Iran. It is clear that the government is going to have to accede to the pressure from this working-class uprising. It is not enough to describe the protestors as foreign agents. Even if Trump and Netanyahu, the monarchists and the Mujahideen Khalq try to take credit for the uprising, they are not in charge. The well of Iranian patriotism is deep. The Iranians will not take their orders from the White House. But neither will they sit quietly as their lives fall apart before their eyes.

This article originally appeared on Alternet.

Russian experts say that there are now more than 10,000 Internet sites that illegally sell alcohol to Russians, that they earn more than 1.7 billion rubles a year, and that much of the alcohol sold is either samogon or adulterated in some way, thus undermining progress Moscow has made in cutting official alcohol consumption and improving public health.

But what is worse, these experts say, is that Moscow wants to legalize this trade, hoping to tax it. But the most likely outcome of such a move will be even more illegal operators who will undercut state prices by not paying taxes and that Russians will suffer even more than now (versia.ru/komu-vygoden-zakon-o-torgovle-alkogolem-cherez-internet-i-pochemu-surrogata-budet-vse-bolshe).

The Russian government is prepared to lift the restrictions in place since 2007 on the sale of alcohol via the Internet. But the health ministry is very much opposed arguing that “this will undercut the achievements of the anti-alcohol policy of recent years” and that it will increase rather than cut the amounts of dangerous surrogates Russians will unknowingly buy.

Bootleggers and other entrepreneurs long ago figured out various ways to evade the restrictions on online sales, and the health ministry and independent experts say there is no reason to think that many of them will agree to play by the rules in the future. Instead, they will feel themselves freer to continue to do what they’ve done and even expand.

Health officials also stress that official figures on alcohol sales and alcohol consumption aren’t to be trusted. In one study, in Voronezh over ten months in 2016, for example, Moscow’s Rosstat offered figures a third less than the local statistical organ reported – and offered no explanation for the difference.

Experts at Group-IB, an international monitoring company, say that there are more than 3,000 Russian sites which illegally sell alcohol and surrogates and that each of them is visited by almost 6,000 people a month. That means that these sites are currently attracting 18 million visitors, a figure that is far more than ten percent of the Russian population.

According to this company, the monthly turnover in this Internet trade of alcohol and surrogates exceeds 100 million rubles (1.4 million US dollars) a month. And that means that the total turnover of all these sites almost certainly is greater than 1.7 billion rubles (30 million US dollars) a year, an estimate that it says is on the low side.

Vadim Drobiz, head of the Moscow Center for Research on Federal and Regional Alcohol Markets, believes that the turnover in illegal alcohol trade via the Internet has reached at least 10 billion rubles a year (140 million US dollars) and that the number of sites engaged in this trade is somewhere between 10,000 and 15,000. Both will go up with “legalization.”

And that will happen even if the government continues to block these sites. It has done so in the case of several thousand sites over the last decade, but such moves have done nothing to reduce the increase of purchases of alcohol and surrogates by Russians over that period. There is no reason to think that the new policy will be effective either.

By Ashok Sajjanhar*

India and the 10-member Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) are currently celebrating 25 years of their rapidly expanding partnership. They are also marking 15 years of their Summit engagement and five years of Strategic their Partnership. Several events are being held in India and various ASEAN countries to mark these milestones. In addition, ASEAN completed 50 years of its establishment in 2017.

To mark the 25th anniversary of the partnership, all 10 Heads of States/Governments of ASEAN States will participate as Chief Guests in the Republic Day celebrations on 26 January 2018. This is for the first time that more than one Head of State/Government has been invited as Chief Guest on India’s National Day. It is also a measure of India’s growing international profile and prestige that leaders of all 10 ASEAN countries have readily acquiesced to participate in this event. The presence of the entire ASEAN leadership on this occasion is a natural extrapolation of the Act East Policy (AEP) launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the first East Asia Summit (EAS) attended by him in Myanmar in November 2014.

Act East Policy

AEP is the successor to the Look East Policy (LEP) that was put in place by then Prime Minister Narasimha Rao in 1992 under radically different geo-political and economic circumstances. LEP was primarily focused on strengthening economic ties between India and ASEAN states. The end of the cold war and disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 provided a welcome opportunity for India to reach out to South-East Asia to capitalize upon its historical, cultural and civilisational linkages with the region. As External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj said at the recently held ninth edition of the Delhi Dialogue, India’s age old ties with South-East Asia have been established through culture, trade and religion and not through ”conquest and colonization.”

The Look East Policy registered impressive gains for 20 years after its inception. Having become a sectoral partner of ASEAN in 1992, India became a dialogue partner and member of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in 1996. India and ASEAN entered into a summit partnership in 2002, the 10th anniversary of LEP, and launched negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in goods in 2003. These discussions culminated in a bilateral deal being concluded in 2009 and becoming effective in 2010. Bilateral trade and investment showed impressive gains in the first decade of this century. While bilateral trade increased from USD 2 billion in 1992 to 12 billion in 2002, registering a growth of 12 per cent annually, it zoomed to 72 billion in 2012 with a cumulative annual growth rate of around 22 per cent over the preceding 10 years. India’s two-way trade with ASEAN now stands at approximately USD 76 billion. India and ASEAN missed out on achieving the two-way trade target of USD 100 billion set during the Commemorative Summit held on the 20th Anniversary of the bilateral partnership in 2012 in New Delhi. The India-ASEAN Free Trade pact in services and investments, which was concluded in 2014 and came into effect a year later, has the potential to reduce India’s trade deficit with the region as also impart a strong impulse to bilateral exchanges. India is also a part of the ASEAN-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which, when concluded and implemented, will cover almost 40 per cent of the world’s population, 33 per cent of global GDP and 40 per cent of world trade.

India and ASEAN are natural partners in their desire to create a free, open and inclusive regional architecture. They are active participants in the East Asia Summit (EAS), ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus), and the Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum (EAMF).

Currently, there exist 30 different dialogue mechanisms between India and the ASEAN states focusing on a range of sectors. These comprise an annual Summit and seven Ministerial meetings focused on a variety of areas that include foreign affairs, economy, environment, tourism, etc. The ASEAN-India Centre (AIC), established in 2013, has enhanced the strategic partnership by concentrating on policy research and recommendations as well as organising meetings between think-tanks and similar institutions in India and ASEAN countries. AIC seeks to bridge the existing information divide amongst the people of the two regions. Exchange programmes have been put in place for frequent interaction between students, senior officials, diplomats, academics, media professionals, etc.

Challenges and Opportunities

Common concerns and aspirations as well as similar threats and challenges confront the ASEAN countries and India at a time when not only Asia but the whole world is in the throes of an uncertain and unpredictable phase. Developments over the next few months and years could determine the final contours of relations in Asia and the world.

Connectivity between India and ASEAN, particularly Myanmar and Thailand, has emerged as a significant element in cementing bonds between the two regions. Better infrastructure connecting Northeast India and ASEAN has become the sine qua non for stronger economic and trade partnership and vital contributor to prosperity and economic development of the region. Two major connectivity projects, viz., the Trilateral Highway between north-east India and Myanmar and onwards to Thailand (and Laos and Vietnam) as well as the Kaladan multi-modal transit and transport project, have been under implementation for several years. The NDA government has taken it up seriously. It is highly likely that both will soon become operational. The allocation of USD 1 billion by Prime Minister Modi during his visit to Malaysia in September 2015 to support connectivity projects is testimony to the importance that the government attaches to rapidly developing infrastructure and bring the regions closer.

Stronger relations between India and Myanmar have also helped to quell insurgency and extremism in the north-eastern states of India. Peace, stability and security of north-east India will be further preserved and promoted with more robust ties and understanding with Myanmar. India has recognized that the success of the AEP will be determined by its contribution to security and economic development of Northeast India.

Relations with ASEAN have become multi-faceted to encompass security, connectivity, strategic, political, space technology, counter-terrorism and anti-insurgency operations, anti-radicalisation, trade and investment, maritime security and defence collaboration, in addition to economic ties. Cooperation to curb terrorism especially in the face of the rising influence of the Islamic State has assumed priority. Defence partnerships with several ASEAN states are advancing rapidly.

The large Indian diasporas in many Southeast Asian countries help strengthen diplomatic, economic and security relations between India and ASEAN as they contribute to expand and intensify bonds. The Indian diaspora comprises an important instrument of India’s soft power.

ASEAN continues to form the central pillar of India’s Act East Policy. This is evident from the very active exchange of visits that has taken place between India and the region. Prime Minister Modi has travelled to Singapore twice, once to attend the State funeral of Singapore’s first Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew in March 2015, and again to mark the 50th anniversary of the establishment of bilateral relations and establish a strategic partnership in November 2015; to Myanmar twice, once to participate in the East Asia Summit (EAS) and the India-ASEAN Summit in November 2014, and again on the way back from China in September 2017; to Malaysia in November 2015 for a bilateral visit as well as to attend the EAS and the India ASEAN Summit; to Laos in September 2016 for the EAS and India ASEAN Summit; to Vietnam on a bilateral visit en route to China in September 2016; and, to the Philippines to participate in EAS and India-ASEAN Summit in November 2017. He also made a short stopover in Thailand on his way to Japan in November 2016 to pay respect to the venerable, departed king Bhumibol Adulyadej. Visits from India have been reciprocated by high level visits from ASEAN States to India. Relations, which were earlier seen as lackadaisical, are again assuming renewed vigour.

India, ASEAN, and the Chinese Conundrum

In a rapidly evolving geo-political scenario marked by China’s assertive military, political and economic rise, the AEP has imparted greater dynamism to India’s ties with ASEAN.

The issue of ownership, control, use and exploitation of oil, gas, mineral and fisheries resources in the South China Sea has emerged as a major dispute between China and several ASEAN countries like Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei and Malaysia. This is an issue that has divided ASEAN down the middle. There is no unanimity amongst them on how to deal with China on this issue. India is concerned because more than 40 per cent of its trade passes through the South China Sea. It is also interested in harnessing fossil fuel resources in the region for meeting its energy needs. ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL) entered into an agreement with Vietnam to prospect in oil blocks 127 and 128 off the Paracel islands which fall within the Exclusive Economic Zone of Vietnam. In all recent discussions in regional and international fora, India and several other countries have supported freedom of navigation, ensuring maritime security, expeditious resolution of disputes according to provisions of international law, viz., the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas 1982, developing a Code of Conduct, and settlement of disputes through dialogue and peaceful means.

China’s increasing intemperance and intractability over the last many years has added to the anxieties and concerns of countries in South East Asia and beyond. They want India to play a more active countervailing role in the region. This interest and desire on the part of these countries meshes flawlessly with the efforts by India to pro-actively reach out to countries of the region for mutually beneficial engagements.

India – U.S. Partnership in the Region

Relations between India and USA have progressed and grown in recent years. A strong impetus was provided by President Obama’s visit to India as the Chief Guest at its Republic Day function in 2015 and the issuance of a Joint Strategic Vision for the Asia Pacific and Indian Ocean Region. This partnership was given a further fillip during the visit of US President Trump to East and Southeast Asia in November 2017. Trump’s consistent use of the expression ”Indo-Pacific” throughout his visit, instead of the more commonly used ”Asia Pacific” to signify that India is a significant player in the region and will need to be included in all discussions and decisions on peace and security of the region, sent out a clear message about the common position held by India and USA regarding developments in the region. It also signalled that the USA and India will partner each other to promote a free and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. A meeting of the Quad (USA, Japan, Australia and India) at the level of officials also gave a strong indication of the interest of these countries in working together to ensure a free, open, inclusive and prosperous region.

Conclusion

India and ASEAN account for about 30 per cent of the global population (i.e., 1.85 billion people) and a combined GDP of approximately USD 5.1 trillion. Together, they would form the third largest economy in the world. Given their combined clout, it is but natural for them to expand their areas of collaboration particularly in view of the rapidly changing and uncertain global and regional scenario. Originally conceived as an economic initiative in 1991, this engagement has evolved in terms of geographical expanse and sectoral reach across the three pillars of politico-security, economic and socio-cultural cooperation. Besides geographical proximity, historical commonalities, cultural affinities and commercial interests, India’s AEP has been driven by geo-strategic concerns as well.

The promotion of India’s geostrategic interests in the Indo-Pacific region depend on India’s bilateral and multilateral/regional engagements with the countries in the region. It is hence essential to strengthen collaboration with ASEAN as an organisation as well as with individual Southeast Asian countries.

Despite progress made over the last 25 years in India-ASEAN ties, there remains immense scope for further growth in the relationship. This is one of the most dynamic regions of the world today, and it is necessary for both India and ASEAN to actively collaborate to shape the so-called ‘Asian century’. A stronger partnership and enhanced cooperation should be prioritised by both sides if the full potential of this engagement is to be realised.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India.

About the author:
*Ashok Sajjanhar is President, Institute of Global Studies, and a former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia.

Source:
This article was published by IDSA.