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India: Beware Rise Of Pseudo-Nation – OpEd

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By Father Myron Pereira SJ*

In August 2017, India celebrated its 70th anniversary of becoming an independent nation. In the constitution, which it gave to itself in November 1949, the group of 363 men who formed the Constituent Assembly, mostly Hindus, pledged to make the nation “a sovereign, secular, socialist, democratic republic.”

Every Jan. 26, marking the day of promulgation of the constitution in 1950, we Indians pledge ourselves anew to these solid republican values. This is what Republic Day means. But have we succeeded? This is the question that needles us today.

The reasons for this are not hard to find. Though the constitution defines us as “a sovereign, secular, socialist and democratic republic,” the reality in this country is far from this.

Look around — we still remain a feudal country with a medieval mindset; the government thrives on patronage, extortion and flattery; people cringe before their government for whatever concessions it can wrest from it; people’s loyalty is first of all to caste and its myriad ramifications and sanctions; and people prize faith and religion before the constitution, law and civic duty.

To fashion a nation out of a disparate people was our task after independence. It was especially difficult to do this using democratic means, unlike our South Asian neighbors who quickly slipped into dictatorships. There were regressions along the way, yes. During the Emergency, for example, we flirted a bit with dictatorship, and many institutions built up painstakingly over the years were sabotaged.

The slow erosion hasn’t stopped. Today it seems more and more that while we play along with the outward decorations of nationhood, our real engagement is with building grandiose temples and statues; with disenfranchising large groups within the civic community; waging war against our own people — “terrorists,” “Maoists” and “anti-nationals”; and undermining education, agriculture, health care, livelihood and respect for each other.

So rather than a sovereign democratic republic, our nation has begun to resemble more and more a dynastic medieval kingdom, locked into its own fantasies of a glorious past.

This is why our so-called democracy — “the largest in the world” — is in fact merely nominal, not substantive. It is an “electoral democracy” where the focus is on getting elected somehow, somewhere, in order to loot the public exchequer. There is no emphasis on performance, on accountability to the electorate, most of whom our legislators and parliamentarians secretly despise. We have regressed into a feudal state.

So what is the vision of India as a nation today?

At the time of independence and during the decades leading up to it, there were competing visions of what free India should be.

The vision which succeeded, and which has engaged the vast majority of our countrymen until now, was that of a diverse but inclusive nation as envisaged by hundreds of our freedom fighters.

It was the vision of a democratic and secular nation, not dynastic and faith-based, committed to improving the lot of the poor (socialist), committed to removing the fatalistic inertia which had bogged our nation for centuries.

Although this was the dominant vision over the last 70 years, its details were increasingly sabotaged by those who ruled us. Here is one reason why India is still so desperately poor and so irredeemably corrupt despite the definite progress that also exists.

The other competing vision was that of Jinnah and the Muslim League. It was not a vision inspired by inclusiveness and progress, but by fear — the fear that the Muslim community, having ruled the subcontinent for 900 years, would be reduced to slavery under a Hindu government. The League demanded and fought for a separate political state on the basis of religious faith — Islam — and through British connivance and perfidy, they got it. Thus was the nation of Pakistan founded, in two places at one time.

In 25 years, this experiment collapsed, as Muslim fought Muslim in Pakistan itself, to give birth to a new nation in the east, Bangladesh. The lesson? Religious faith can no longer be the sole basis for a nation in today’s world, and Pakistan is a standing proof of its failure.

But there was still a third vision of what India should become: the vision of the Hindu right, the Hindu Mahasabha and its successor, the RSS. For these, Hindustan was exclusively for the Hindus, those who considered this country their fatherland and their holy land, as the ideologue Savarkar put it. Others could be there only on sufferance.

Like right-wing parties everywhere, RSS stood for establishment religion, property, caste, patriarchy and authoritarianism. Even more, they took their cue from the European fascist movements of the 1930s — Mussolini and Hitler specially — and longed to duplicate such rule in this country. Their leaders and several others — Brahmin in origin, fascist in ideology — had an upper-caste contempt for the majority of other Indians (tribal, Dalits, other “backward castes” (shudras), women, of course) and sheer hatred for those aliens, Christians and Muslims.

During the first decades of independence, as Nehru’s government struggled to build a nation out of poverty, illiteracy, caste factions and linguistic divisions, the RSS-Jan Sangh (predecessor of the BJP) stood little chance in electoral politics.

But as the Congress party grew increasingly corrupt and enmeshed in the politics of dynasty, and as the socialist economy of the country failed dismally in providing food, shelter and clothing for the masses, the Hindu right slowly asserted itself. It created the canard that Hindus were oppressed in their own country because Muslims were being appeased. In assertion, they came up with the “masjid” ploy — the destruction of a medieval mosque and a plan to erection of a grandiose “Ram temple” over it.

The BJP has never looked back since.

Today with BJP leader Narendra Modi at its helm, it stands poised to sweep the whole country under one saffron flag and reinstate the Hindu moral code of ancient lawgiver Manu (manusmriti) in place of our national constitution.

In place of an inclusive polity, it shrewdly practices the old colonial policy of divide and rule, breaking up communities on the basis of what they eat and drink, what films they can see, whom they can marry, where they work.

What they call a nation is in reality a pseudo-nation, a medieval kingdom really, where sants and mahants boss over governance, and Brahmins and banias manipulate the economy. And just as it was in Hitler’s Germany, a section of the community is targeted, ostracized, persecuted and progressively impoverished.

Really, have we regressed so far in all this time? Has it taken us 70 years to belittle our constitution and become what Pakistan is today — a failed state, a corrupt and fundamentalist nation, a terrorist haven? It would seem so.

Although the BJP slogan sab ka vikas, sab ke saath (with all, for the progress of all) looks attractive on paper, the ground reality seems more like sab ka vinash, BJP ke saath (with BJP, for the destruction of all).

So what of our future?

If Muslims and Christians are called “people of the book,” it’s time that the vast multitudes in this country — the Hindu majority — became “people of the book of the constitution” and took to heart its fundamental values. It’s time they demanded accountability from their elected representatives to its guiding directives.

But for this, we must read the constitution, understand it and implement it. The constitution is not a book for the shelves, but a book for the street, for the courts, for the public forum. It was crafted by gifted, dedicated Indians as a template for this nation’s future. It must not be sabotaged by bogus Indians to drag this nation, kicking and screaming, back into a wretched feudal past.

*Father Myron Pereira SJ is a media consultant based in Mumbai.


Romania’s Socialists Opt For A Gender-Washing Gambit – OpEd

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Romania’s ruling Social Democrats (PSD) are currently taking credit for a new milestone in their young democracy’s history. Last week, President Klaus Iohannis accepted their recommendation to nominate European parliamentarian Viorica Dancila as Romania’s first female prime minister.

In most countries, this would be a momentous occasion. So why is Iohannis saying he is “unhappy and concerned” with the state of Romanian politics? More importantly, why are tens of thousands protesting against the government in the streets?

To put matters quite simply, it is because Dancila’s appointment qualifies as little more than “gender-washing” by a corrupt party intent on sending its country deeper into political crisis.

Governing from the shadows

Romania has just named its third prime minister in 13 months. The man responsible for both the current troubles and Dancila’s nomination is PSD chief Liviu Dragnea, a moustachioed party boss ripped from the annals of Tammany Hall who can’t hold the top job himself because of a conviction for rigging a referendum in 2012. That’s not to mention another potential conviction over misappropriating EU funds.

After winning 2016 parliamentary elections with 46% of the vote, Dragnea has gone through a string of prime ministers to find someone willing to change the rules for him. His first move was to nominate his friend Sevil Shhaideh, a Romanian of Syrian descent, for the post and set off a rush of headlines identical to the ones greeting Dancila now.

President Iohannis killed the vibe by rejecting Shhaideh’s nomination, though, in his defence, the decision came after investigative journalists caught her Syrian husband cheerleading for Bashar al-Assad.

Dragnea has put forward and pulled back two placeholder premiers since. When Sorin Grindeanu baulked at implementing Dragnea’s changes, he was summarily dismissed by the party. When replacement Mihai Tudose fell out with Dragnea, he was forced to resign as well. The PSD boss hopes the third time will be the charm.

With Dancila, he may be in luck. In the European Parliament, she is best known for constant absenteeism and mistakenly claiming Iran and Pakistan were EU member states. Her real qualifications for the job may be her loyalty to Dragnea and outspoken support for his “reforms“. But what would those reforms entail, exactly?

Years of progress coming unstuck

Nothing good. After its accession to the EU in 2007, Romania made excellent progress in stamping out corruption among the upper echelons of government. As recently as April 2016, Romania was held up as a shining example of how to tackle corruption at the highest level. Jean-Claude Juncker even proposed taking Romania off the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism (CVM) by 2019, a vote of confidence that Europe would no longer need to actively monitor corruption in the country.

Dragnea’s PSD is attempting to take Romanian law backwards by at least a decade. Dancila will be asked to push ahead with proposals to quash prison sentences for political figures convicted of corruption (including one Liviu Dragnea) and strictly limit the power of the anti-corruption directorate, or DNA.

VICE Romania reported last year that PSD is trying to “make corruption legal” and they are not exaggerating. The proposed amendments would deal a catastrophic blow to the DNA, which has put 72 MPs (including many allies of Dragnea) on trial since 2006.

The changes would also hamstring cases against high-profile defendants outside the political sphere. Those include proceedings against businessman Alexander Adamescu, who is fighting extradition from the UK by blasting corruption allegations against himself and his late father as a “witch hunt” instigated by the ruling party and executed by the DNA. Adamescu does not explain why the PSD’s tool of political oppression goes after so many of its own members, but that hasn’t stopped the Brexiteer press from picking up the narrative.

Backlash in Bucharest

Dancila’s rise to power has seen thousands of Romanians take to the streets, but they are not there to celebrate. Each PSD move against the Romanian judiciary and governing institutions over the past year has been met with some of the biggest street protests the country has seen since Nicolae Ceauşescu was ousted from power and summarily executed in 1989.

Those demonstrations dissuaded Grindeanu and Tudose from going along with Dragnea’s programme, but the party leader himself remains undeterred. At the height of the first round of protests one year ago, when more than 500,000 Romanians were demonstrating against the government, Dragnea infamously quipped: “I don’t understand what the protesters are upset about.”

President Iohannis has also been a vocal opponent, which he rightly sees as conducive to corruption. Unfortunately, the PSD’s firm hold on parliamentary power left him little choice but to sign off on Dancila’s appointment.

With few checks left on the PSD inside Romania, Romanians may have to rely on European institutions to respond. The Council of Europe’s anti-corruption agency, Greco, has finally called out Bucharest’s failing efforts to counter corruption after launching an “urgent evaluation” of the PSD-backed judicial reform package. Unfortunately, Jean-Claude Junker and the Commission still seem inclined to take a softer line.

While Dancila helps Dragnea cripple the country’s judiciary, she will probably do little to address the serious issues facing Romanian women. That is a shame, because a strong advocate for women at the head of government could challenge public attitudes in a country where more than half of people believe in “justified rape“. Such a leader could also tackle the marginalization of women in already-marginalized communities like the Roma minority, in addition to the systemic sexual violence perpetrated against Romanian women working elsewhere in Europe.

Instead, Dancila will be asked to lay the groundwork for her political patron to take her place and be cast aside if she can’t manage it.

*Jo Simmons is a writer and consultant currently living in London.

Turmoil In Yemen: Implications For Regional Security Of Middle East – Analysis

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By Mehwish Akram*

Background

The recent unrest in Yemen is not a new phenomenon it has deep roots in its history. Initially, it was divided into North and South Yemen both these parts got unified in 1990. Yemen since its inception has faced small scale conflicts among the Sunni and Shia. Yemen is one of the poorest countries of Middle East having lowest GDP in the region. If we go deep into the history one easily identify the causes of division and fault lines of the brewing conflict since the independence of Yemen. It is one of the artificially created states by the colonial powers in order to indirectly rule them by giving legitimacy to tribesmen who have no experience of ruling a country. The incompetence of tribal lords promoted weak and self-serving ruling elite that deepens the roots of conflict in Yemen. In the same manner, a role of external powers cannot be overlooked as they try to take advantage of fragile government to achieve their ulterior motives rather than resolving their domestic issues.

Introduction

Yemen has a history of sectarian issues since its independence due to the Sunni-Shia rift. But the situation got worst in 2011 especially after the Arab Spring when locals mainly Shia community starts to protest against the Sunni government. The instigation sparked in the country, as a result, of the oppressive rule of Ali Abdullah Saleh and low economic indicators that further aggravated the domestic issues within Yemen. Yemen is mostly dependent on foreign assistance for its economy. Saudi Arabia is backing and providing financial assistance along with international donor agencies. Moreover, the sectarian divide within a country is another major cause of conflict. The power rivalry between the Saudi Arabia and Iran for regional hegemony has complicated the situation by creating division in Yemen. The Sunni government supports Saudi Arabia whereas Shia Mehdi’s are covertly backed by Iran.

Yemen is strategically significant as Bab-ul-Mandab is located here in Arabian Peninsula that is a vital route for transport of oil to the rest of the world. It has close ties with Saudi Arabia as they are helping them to cope with the poor economy. Similarly, GCC countries are also facilitating them to stand on their feet. In the same manner, Iran is providing aid but it is often criticized for promoting ethnic rivalry to challenge the increasing influence of Saudi Arabia in Middle Eastern region. Yemen predominantly remains under the influence of Saudi Arabia because of ideological affinity with Wahabi school of thought of ruling elite. Similarly, one cannot ignore the significance of Yemen for Saudi Government since Saudi Arabia will have more room to maneuver in Arabian Peninsula to counter the influence of Iran in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is well aware of the Iranian role in the region. The regional rivalry between these two states is not something new it is deeply rooted in their historical legacy of their relations with each other.

Rationale of study

Yemen is ethnically divided between Sunni and Shia since the independence. Furthermore, this ethnic rivalry is exploited by two major players Saudi Arabia and Iran to increase their area of the influence in the region. According to the experts, the card of ethnicity is played in case of Yemen. The internal situation of Yemen was gotten worse after the Arab Spring in addition, to suppression of minorities including the Shia community under the Ali Abdullah Saleh government in the center. As he himself belongs from the Sunni community and has a soft corner for Saudi government and American influence in their country. At the same time, one cannot undermine the role of Iran in the region and their growing influence in the internal politics of the Middle Eastern region. The main aim of this paper is to analyze the repercussions of the unrest in Yemen on the whole region in terms of its security and stability is concerned. It can be assessed in three contexts that are domestic, regional and international context. In order to critically evaluate the present situation of Yemen, one cannot do it without taking all aspects into account including the domestic, regional and global level of analysis to understand its implications for the security of Middle East in coming few years.

One cannot neglect the role of external powers as far as Yemen is concerned because the role of US is an open secret as they have close ties with the Saudi Arabia as its regional ally. Many experts of Middle Eastern affairs are of the view that the US has apprehensions regarding the increasing influence of the Iran in the region particularly ousting the Sunni government in Yemen by supporting Zaydi’s Shia militias in Yemen. Since Iran also have aspirations to become a regional hegemon by challenging both Saudi Arabia and their allies in the region. On the other hand, GCC countries also are significant in determining the future of Yemen in changing regional dynamics in the context of Iran-US nuclear deal which is considered to be the victory of Iran on the diplomatic front in a global arena.

Domestic context

It is essential to look deep into the internal dynamics of the Yemen before going for regional and international factors responsible for the turmoil in the country. (Bookings, 2015) Every country has unique domestic issues that they had to deal it. Yemen can be called as least developed states within the Middle East. It is dependent on Saudi Arabia and foreign assistance for running the economy. Another aspect that can be considered as a root cause of domestic rivalry is a divide between Sunni and Shia that has affected the peace of the country. Moreover, the weak government of Yemen is unable to eradicate the differences between two groups to bring stability in the country. The conflict in Yemen was ignited with start of Arab Spring within the Middle East along the prevailing conditions within the Yemen most of the people living there are not satisfied the ruling elite of the country. The lack of leadership at domestic is another reason for masses that led to violence in the country. The ruling elite is not doing enough to address the issues of people rather than protecting their regime interests. The lack of unity is also a major factor for the disorder as they divided into Sunni and Shia which is exploited by the regional players for serving their interests.

Reasons for unrest

Sunni versus Shia

The major cause of conflict in case of Yemen is a Sunni and Shia divide that has created many problems. Firstly, it has created internal division within the country which is manipulated by different interest groups in the Arabian Peninsula. Similarly, when a nation is not united at the domestic level then one cannot have coherent policies at the national level. The lack of uniform policy at national level makes the country internally weak and fragile. Yemen due to its divisions within is suffering from the setbacks in framing national coalitions to deal with their issues at home.

Moreover, the past legacy of both Yemen North and South has a dominant role as both represent each sect which is Sunni and Shia. After the unification in 1990, this problem remains there as there was no substantial effort was done by the ruling elite of the country to resolve this contentious concern inside Yemen. The internal division further got complicated when central government detaches itself from the masses who were not satisfied with the government. The failure of a government to address the grievances of masses has played a major role in further cleavage in Yemen. The people at the national level are fighting for their basic rights including food and shelter unsuitable economic conditions and heavy dependence on the foreign aid for running the country. Furthermore, the growing differences between Sunni and Shia community considered being the core problem of Yemen. Many experts believe that it is a cause of rift among the ruling elite locals are usually use as a tool to serve their purpose most of them don’t give much thought to the so-called divide between Sunni and Shia. One cannot completely negate this analysis of experts because masses are usually exploited in the name of religion by ruling elite.

Role of Al-Qaida of Arabian Peninsula

Al-Qaida of Arabian Peninsula is another major threat that is posing a serious threat to the peace of Yemen. The role of Al-Qaeda is vital in terms security of the region is concerned because the growing influence is posing a threat to its internal security. Consequently, the unrest in Yemen is becoming a breeding ground for terrorists that can have dangerous consequences for its internal security. In addition, if they tend to get a stronghold in Yemen it can further disrupt the existing security situation in the Middle Eastern region. Al-Qaeda of Arabian Peninsula is the offshoot of Afghani Al-Qaeda which is active and has a capability to even take over Yemen under weak government control in the country (Neubauer, 2015).

The role of AQAP cannot be underestimated provided current security situation in the Middle East. One of the key factors that they can exploit to serve their interest is of Sunni- Shia conflict within the Yemen. The proponents of Wahabi school of thought that is closer to Sunni ideology if the Sunni of Yemen started joining this organization it can adversely impact the security of the Middle East. Many experts consider AQAP as a potential threat to the not only for Yemen but also for the Arabian Peninsula in coming few years. They are against foreign intervention of the western countries especially the role of the US in the Middle East due to ideological differences and suspicious of the external powers involvement in the region. The current scenario in the Middle East is depicting an uncertainty in terms of peace and stability in the region due to the presence of Isis and their increasing violent activities.

Grievances of people

Another factor that is not addressed by the ruling elite of Yemen is grievances of local people since they are deprived of basic necessities and famine like situation due to ongoing tug of war between Houthis and Mehdi’s of Yemen. Most of the people living in the country are living under the poverty line which is alarming for international donor agencies of human relief. Yemen is not self-sufficient in terms of food to meet the needs of its population mostly relying on other neighboring countries for fulfilling needs of local population. Moreover, illiteracy is one of major reason behind the back forwardness of the Yemen. The masses, in general, are not enlightened about their potential abilities and rights being the citizen of the Yemen. It is one of poorest countries in the oil-rich region of Middle East and relatively weak internally. Despite the efforts of regional countries and international organizations, it is struggling with a shortage of food and chaos in the Yemen. The internal insecurity is widening mainly people are not happy with their government. The malfunctioning of government can be seen in its leadership that is incompetent to handle the internal situation on their own and often exploited in hands of external and regional powers.

On the other hand, due to the ongoing war between two groups in a country, most of the people are forced to leave their home to other countries. They are living in refugees camps and facing an uncertain future for them and their young generation. According to the Experts of Middle East, it is very difficult to bring stability in Yemen in coming few years. The intense fighting between government forces and rebels will not let any force to bring peace in the country by bringing both parties to the negotiation table to resolve it in an effective way.

Regional context

At the regional level, one assesses the regional dynamics by giving the example of two major players in the Middle East that is Iran and Saudi Arabia. The rivalry between them is based on their historical legacy. Iran has a strong sense of nationalism that has prevented them from assimilating into the Arab identity. Whereas Saudi Arabia on the other hand, called them as advocates of the Arab unity that they are promoted at the regional level. (Roy, Rizvi, & Zaidi, 2015) But Iran always opposes any such attempts that would affect the nationalism as they called them as Persians, not Arabs due to the unique identity. Iran being part of Persian Empire glorifies them as Persians rather than associating them with the Arab nation. The distinct identities of Iran and Saudi Arabia are one of the reasons that have widened their differences with each other. The distrust is another factor that is not letting them forget their bitter experiences with each other. Iran is suspicious of Saudi intentions because of their close relations with the US. Iran since its revolution has contentious relations with the US they have apprehensions regarding their influence in the Middle East. The US also developed conflictual relations with supreme leader on the issue of backing Israel against Muslim countries.

Saudi Arabia being a major state and ally of US in the region due to its oil production and export to the rest of the world makes its distinct position in a global arena. Saudi Arabia has close ties with the US since the inception. Saudi Arabia has greater regional influence due to their stature within the region and outside the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has an international standing due to its closer ties with the almost all major states of the world. Despite being major state of Middle East they have an ideological rift between their regional rival Iran. They are in conflict with each other due to Sunni-Shia rivalry. According to the experts, it not just their religious rivalry instead it is political tactics to expand their areas of influence inside the region and beyond it. The analogy of Arab and Persian was used to increase the economic and political hegemony by both the parties. The differences between the Saudi’s with the Iranian government is based upon the potential capability of the Iran and Saudi Arabia to rule the Gulf region. Many experts are of the view that the major cause of conflict is misunderstanding between them.

International context

At the global level, one cannot ignore the role of the US and its ally’s role in the Middle East. Historically, one cannot deny the US involvement in the region after the Second World War especially having strategic relations with Israel. The interest of US has increased after the discovery of oil in this part of the world. The energy security in the contemporary world is core national interest of the US and other western countries. (Swift, 2012) The growing dependence of industries of the world on hydrocarbons has enhanced the vitality of the oil-rich region which is known as the Middle East. One of the major turning points was 1979 revolution of Iran before that Shah of Iran has friendly relations with the US. Since the revolution, the relations of US were never smooth with Iran due to differences with the supreme leader of Iran who labeled the US as Great Satan. Whereas in Iraq although they installed pro-Hashemite government but when they were replaced by the Saddam Hussein of Baathist party the relations become strained due to his aggressive posture towards other Gulf states. Before that, Saddam Hussein used to have good relations with the US as they help them to build a strong Iraq.

Currently, the alliance of US with Saudi-led coalitions against rebels in Yemen has complicated the situation. As the US initially avoided getting into confrontation directly but recently they have started using their major power status to suppress the rebels inside the Yemen. The alliance of US with Saudi Arabia is an open secret but the overt participation of US forces has raised a number of questions about the future of conflict within the Yemen. Despite the claims of US to stay out of the Yemen crisis particularly after the invasion of 2003 in Iraq by other means has increased the apprehensions about their potential role in Yemen unrest. According to the analysts, the recent activities of the US are not welcome by Yemen and Iran. The backing of US for Saudi coalition’s air strikes has earned a bad name for the US across the globe due to the casualties of the civilians in Yemen. The alliance of US with Saudi Arabia can have negative repercussions as far as the stability of Yemen is concerned because by supporting Saudi against rebels can affect their relations with Iran. Iran is often blamed for supporting the rebel groups to counter the Saudi influence in the Middle East.

The role of UN is very minimal as it has failed to bring peace in the country. (Roy, Rizvi, & Zaydi, 2015) Although UN did pass a resolution for devising a way to stop the fighting within in Yemen but still no results are so far achieved. United Nations lacks the ability to solve the domestic issues of Yemen as it has no authority to intervene in the internal matters of any country. Similarly, UN is an inactive institution in terms of resolving issues particularly in Middle East region mainly because of interests of major players in the international arena. UN as an institution is weak for implementing its decisions at international level.

Why is it posing a serious threat to Middle East?

The Distrust of Regional players within the Middle East against the external powers can amplify the instability by deepening the misunderstanding making it more volatile in coming few years. If the regional countries are suspicious of the Western powers role in domestic issues of the region then any minor incident can initiate a major conflict that will further deteriorate the situation of the worn prone region. The external power is crucial for making the Middle East peaceful which can be attained by building the trust of the major players of the Arabian Peninsula for achieving relative stability. Moreover, the trust deficit between Iran and Saudi Arabia is another major concern for growing instability in the Middle East. There is a need that both states try to resolve their ideological differences by removing the misunderstanding for the greater goal that is to ensure peace of the Middle Eastern region for them. According to experts the distrust between Iran and Saudi Arabia can be removed by developing a middle way or consent of leadership on both sides to let go their conflictual past for secure future for them rather than fighting with each other over regional hegemony.

The Spread of Extremism mainly after the proclamation of Daesh and growing of Al-Qaeda of Arabian Peninsula in the Middle East will increase the terrorism and extremism. The militant elements are using the uncertain situation of the region for serving their purpose by making it brewing ground for more lethal conflicts in near future. Furthermore, the effective leadership is required to foresee their minor issues for ensuring peace in the Middle East. Iran and Saudi Arabia can play a significant role by not letting extremist element to take refuge in their areas in the name of Sunni-Shia divide for promoting violent activities in any of Middle Eastern country. But it is difficult to attain as the ideological rivalries are deeply rooted in their mindset. In order to change the mindset deliberate efforts are needed for the considerable period of time to change the perception of Iran and Saudi leadership mindset for saving their region from the terrorists. On the hand, both countries should not fund any group for advocating sectarian divide which is becoming a hurdle in a way of the Middle East. The mutual efforts by the Saudi and Iranian government are required for bringing prosperity of the whole region instead of working for narrow national interest.

Increase rivalry between Iran-Saudi Arabia

The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia is deeply rooted but the recent involvement by both states in Yemen will increase their animosity to the larger extent. As we know both Iran and Saudi Arabia have aspirations of becoming regional hegemon particularly after a conclusion of Iran’s nuclear deal with the US. Saudi Arabia has expressed their apprehensions with the US. Saudi Arabia is the ally of US in the Middle East criticized Iranian role in the regional politics as the nuclear deal will disturb the balance of power in the region. The Saudi government is of the view that this deal will bring instability in the region as Iran will try to reassert its power by supporting regional proxies, for example, Hamas and Hezbollah. Moreover, Iran, on the other hand, has its hesitation regarding the role of Saudi Arabia in the Middle East particularly promoting anti-Iran sentiment. In a case of Yemen, one would say both states have their interests as they want to increase their sphere of influence in the region. Iran is blamed for covertly supporting Zaydi’s Shia living inside the Yemen against the Sunni government of Ali Abdullah Sale in revolt the government.( Masood, 2016,) Similarly, it is an open secret Saudi Arabia has close ties with the ruling party of Yemen.

Challenges

Firstly, the weak leadership is one of the major issues in a context of Yemen. It is the inability of local leadership which is causing unrest in Yemen. The ruling elite is not trying to resolve their issues internally which is complicated the situation in the country. The role of regional players is increasing in case of Yemen due to the links of ruling elites with the Saudi Arabia and Iran. According to experts on the Middle East, the current situation in Yemen is becoming worse due to incompetence on the part of the leadership of Yemen who are relying on regional players to resolve their internal issues. Yemen is largely dependent on aid and assistance provided by GCC and Saudi Arabia.

Secondly, the role of external powers mainly of US is dominant after the failure of peace talks between Saleh regime and Houthis rebels (Future Directions International, 2014). Initially, US forces avoided directly involving them in Yemen. But end up indulging them in direct confrontation by supporting Saudi-backed forces by assisting them in airstrikes against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The US has also used drone strikes to target rebels for supporting Saleh regime in Yemen. The growing involvement of US in internal politics has transformed the internal rift within Yemen into an international conflict. The role of UN is not significant because it has failed to get desired results to maintain peace within the Yemen.

Another major threat that Yemen is facing is the threat of terrorism in form of Al-Qaeda of Arabian Peninsula (NATO Foundation Defence College, 2016,). The significance of the AQAP has increased inside Yemen due to ongoing rift between Saleh regime and Houthi rebels. The power vacuum has been created which is exploited by the Al-Qaeda of Arabian Peninsula. The sympathies of masses for Al-Qaeda of Arabian Peninsula can further complicate the situation in Yemen consequently increased militancy in the country. The people are frustrated if they start joining terror organization it would disrupt the stability of Yemen in long run and security of the whole region.

Analysis

One can say the unity within Yemen is required for bringing stability in the country and saving Middle East region in larger extent from future conflicts. There is a need for internal cohesion among the internal players that can only be achieved by building consensus between them. The ruling elite should take steps to address the grievances of the people by sharing power with other major groups that are significant in politics of Yemen. The Shia community should be taken on board by giving then their due share in internal dynamics of the country. They should be consulted while making important policy decisions of the country to ensure the stability of Yemen. Moreover, the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia was ignited in case of Yemen that will increase their hostility with each other. According to experts, Iran and Saudi Arabia have aspirations of becoming regional hegemon especially after the normalization of the relation between Iran and US with the nuclear deal. Similarly, Saudi Arabia is also expressing their reservations regarding deal of Iran with the US. Saudi Arabia being the ally of US in the Middle East criticized Iran’s role in the regional politics. It will disturb the balance of power in the region as the nuclear deal will bring instability in the region. According to Saudi government Iran will try to increase its power by actively backing regional proxies in form of the Hamas and Hezbollah.

Furthermore, Iran has apprehensions about the role of Saudi Arabia in the Middle East particularly promoting anti-Iran sentiment in Middle East region. In a context of Yemen, one can say that Iran and Saudi Arabia have their interests as both wants to increase their area of influence in the region. Iran is often blamed for clandestinely supporting Zaydi’s Shia of the Yemen against the Sunni government of Ali Abdullah Sale. Similarly, it is an open secret Saudi Arabia has close ties with the ruling party of Yemen by supporting them through aid and military assistance. The growing role of two major rival states is increasing instability of Middle East on one hand and on the hand becoming a cause of unrest in a case of Yemen.

Yemen should become self-sufficient in order to stop the intervention of external and regional players in its internal politics. It can only be possible if the leadership take the responsibility rather than serving their interests they should solve their internal issues by mutual consent. The fighting among various groups will increase the instability of their country. There is the need to on part of ruling elite is to share their power for bringing internal cohesion with the groups who deprived of becoming major getting their due share in the context of domestic politics of Yemen. For instance, Shia community Zaydi’s which constitute majority at the domestic level within Yemen.

Conclusion

To conclude, one can say that role of leadership of Yemen should be pragmatic in order to resolve the internal issues by taking all stakeholders on board. Currently, the reliance of ruling elite on regional and international actors is causing more chaos. The leadership of Yemen should try to resolve their issues by building the consensus of domestic actors for bringing peace and stability in their country. The future of Yemen is largely dependent upon the decisions of the ruling elite who is running the country. The masses of Yemen want stability of their country which is disrupted by the involvement of regional and international players into the domestic politics of Yemen.

Way forward

The role of leadership should be pragmatic for addressing domestic issues.

The consensus building is required for ensuring the stability of Yemen.

Yemen needs to become self-sufficient for resolving their issues themselves.

About the author:
*Mehwish Akram
holds masters degree in International Relations and currently doing M Phil in Political Science. Her areas of interest are Democracy, Political theory and Environmental politics .

Source:
This article was published by Modern Diplomacy

Europe-Japan Cooperation For Rules-Based International Liberal Order – Analysis

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Despite its shortcomings, the international liberal order is worth saving. Therefore, international actors committed to that system, such as the EU and Japan, should cooperate in its revitalisation.

By Mario Esteban and Luis Simon*

Summary

The rise of emerging powers and a significant questioning of key pillars of the liberal order in some OECD countries bring uncertainty to the durability of the current international order. Despite its shortcomings, this open and rule-based international liberal order has created conditions for reaching unprecedented levels of socioeconomic development and stability across the world. Therefore, likeminded actors such as Europe and Japan should redouble their efforts to reinvest the features of the liberal order that favour inclusiveness and fairness. Doing so, they will make it less likely for rising powers to resort to force to secure their interests and will deal more effectively with daunting traditional security threats and the provision of global common goods. The adoption of an EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement and a Strategic Partnership Agreement would be the clearest signal that Brussels and Tokyo are joining forces in this task.

Analysis

Although the international liberal order has favoured freedom, prosperity and stability across the globe more than any past international order, its own excesses and the growing international influence of countries that did not participate in its creation are putting its durability at risk.1

In this context, where the validity of the international liberal order is under question both in the OECD countries and beyond, Europe and Japan should redouble their efforts to reinvest the features of the liberal order that promote inclusiveness and fairness abroad and at home. Doing so, they will make less it likely for rising powers to resort to force to secure their interests and will mobilise domestic support for its preservation. Moreover, the joint reinforcement and improvement of the liberal order is the more effective strategy for facing both daunting traditional security threats, like the North Korean nuclear crisis, and the provision of global common goods as epitomised by the UN’s Sustainable-Development Goals.

The EU and Japan have traditionally been two of the main supporters of the liberal international order in close cooperation with the US and its allies. As advanced, industrialised democracies, the EU and Japan have many common interests and work together regularly with one another in many international and multilateral forums. Over the years the scope of the EU-Japan relationship has broadened from the trade-related issues of the 1970s and 80s and the intensity of their cooperation has deepened to the extent that at the EU-Japan Summit of July 2017 a political agreement was announced to conclude a bilateral Economic Partnership Agreement and a Strategic Partnership Agreement based on shared fundamental values. The actual adoption of these agreements would be the clearest signal that Brussels and Tokyo are joining forces in the revitalisation of the liberal order.

The questioning of an international order that is worth saving

According to John Ikenberry, the international liberal order reflects the merger (or overlap) of two very different projects. On the one hand, there is the modern system of States that dates back to the Peace of Westphalia (1648), based on their inviolable sovereignty; on the other, a political and economic order that essentially emerged in the 19th and 20th centuries promoted by the US and the UK in opposition to authoritarianism and mercantilism. This dichotomy resulted in a certain contradiction between the State-centred Westphalian system and the global economic governance institutions created after the Second World War.

These tensions became aggravated in the aftermath of the Cold War, when certain OECD countries wanted to add institutional and conceptual elements to the liberal order, such as the International Criminal Court and the Responsibility to Protect, which eroded the Westphalian principle of national sovereignty in the name of Human Rights. These developments facilitated US-led interventions with very questionable results in countries such as Iraq and Libya. In view of these events, a significant number of countries, many of them with a history of colonial oppression, and some of them with impeccable democratic credentials, voiced their opposition to the erosion of the principle of State sovereignty, which they regarded as a means of defence against the hegemon. This popular narrative in non-OECD countries clashes with a prevalent narrative in OECD countries that underlines the beneficial nature of US hegemony thanks to its leading role in the provision of global common goods such as security, free trade and financial stability.

Whereas the political interventionist nature of the liberal order is mainly questioned in non-OECD countries, the economic foundations of the liberal order are receiving growing criticism in OECD countries as a raising protectionism and inward-looking trends seem to indicate. The acceleration of globalisation experienced after the end of the Cold War has pushed forwards a swift liberalisation of the global economic order, particularly after the creation of the World Trade Organisation in 1994. This is perhaps the most inclusive area of the current international order, since it has allowed the full participation of States such as the People’s Republic of China (2001) and the Russian Federation (2012), which did not participate in its creation.

One of the most significant results of the integration of the developing economies in the liberal economic order has been a massive growth of the middle classes in those countries, with a consequent increase in social support for that international economic order. On the contrary, growing inequalities and the deterioration, whether in absolute or relative terms, of the standards of living of the middle classes in the most developed economies have fostered opposition to the liberal international economic order in the shape of nationalist populism and anti-globalisation movements. Brexit and the election of Donald Trump are the two most visible examples of the phenomenon. Political criticism of the liberal order from non-OECD countries and economic criticism from OECD countries are sometimes connected, in particular through Russian hybrid practices such as information warfare and fake news.

Despite all its shortcomings, the international liberal order should not be discarded, but reformed. Going back to Ikenberry, the liberal international order has brought unprecedented levels of peace and prosperity to mankind thanks to two of its features: it is inclusive and it is based on rules. The liberal international economic order is built upon rules of nondiscrimination and market openness, establishing a system with low participation barriers, high potential returns and a broad distribution of economic benefits beyond the leading powers. The rise of China and its claim to be a champion of free trade and globalisation in the context of the protectionist Trump Administration illustrate the high standards of inclusiveness of the liberal order. Along the same lines, the dense network of multilateral norms and institutions that structures the international liberal order restricts power politics and makes the behaviour of international actors more predictable. By doing so, the international liberal order facilitates cooperation and collective problem solving, which is essential for tackling many challenges such as climate change, international terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, whose effective solution is well beyond the capabilities of a single State.

What can Europe and Japan do?

In order to reinvigorate the international liberal order, Europe and Japan should increase their commitment to its normative and institutional foundations, being more willing to bind themselves to international law and institutions, and should try to persuade their traditional allies to do so. The EU and Japan should cooperate to lead different multilateral agreements and institutions in multiple areas such as free trade, global warming, nuclear proliferation and terrorism. Their leadership should be exercised in an open, inclusive and rule-based manner that spreads gains widely, both within and outside their borders, instead of adopting a narrow focus on maintaining the current balance of power. This is not to deny that some global and regional balances of power could be more conductive than others to the preservation of the international liberal order. But by following this course, with a greater concern about absolute than relative gains, Europe and Japan are more likely to continue to be a source of international prosperity and stability than of geopolitical or economic disruption.

Besides cooperating along these lines both at the multilateral and bilateral levels, the strongest signal that the EU, its member States and Japan could send to the international community would establishing bilateral economic and strategic partnership agreements. The negotiations for a EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement started in 2013, but at that time none of the actors involved took them as a priority. However, the process accelerated in 2017. On 6 July, Donald Tusk, Jean-Claude Juncker and Shinzō Abe announced an agreement in principle on the main elements of the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement and the negotiations were finalised on 8 December. If drawing up, translating and approving the Partnership Agreement by the European and concerned national parliaments go smoothly, the bilateral free-trade agreement could come into force in 2019.

The Economic Partnership Agreement should bring substantial economic gains to both sides, the EU estimates it will save €1 billion in customs duties per year and boost annual exports to Japan from €80 billion to more than €100 billion, while Japan expects a similar saving in customs duties and a 29% increase in exports to the EU. However, the speeding up of negotiations has had other motives. The completion of such an ambitious free-trade agreement –covering a wide range of issues such as trade in goods and services, intellectual property rights, non-tariff measures, public procurement and investments, by two of the biggest economies of the world, which jointly comprise 19% of world GDP and 38% of global exports– would have two significant implications. First, it will help the EU and Japan shape global trade rules in line with their high standards and regulations. Secondly, it will be a clear message against protectionism, showing that two of the biggest global economies are willing to further liberalise even if the US is taking a protectionist turn.

Both sides should also take advantage of the momentum created by the progress made in the economic partnership agreement to strengthen bilateral cooperation in dealing with common socioeconomic challenges, such as growing inequality and the sustainability of the welfare state, which are contributing to raising domestic discontent against the liberal order. Both sides have valuable experience in dealing with this and related issues, such as the technological revolution, ageing population and educational reform, and should increase their exchange of good practices in these fields through regular sectoral dialogues. In addition, other related issues, such as tax avoidance and evasion, cannot be fought only at the national level but should be tackled at international forums, like the G20 framework, where the EU and Japan cooperate.

In parallel to the Economic Partnership Agreement, the EU and Japan negotiated a Strategic Partnership Agreement since they decided that both would be adopted simultaneously. As mentioned above regarding the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement, the Strategic Partnership Agreement is also regarded in Brussels and Tokyo as a sign of their commitment to upholding and reinforcing the normative foundations of the liberal order. The Strategic Partnership Agreement would be a legally binding pact beyond political dialogue and policy cooperation, covering security policy and cooperation on regional and global challenges, such as climate change, development policy and disaster relief. In addition, the EU and Japan are currently negotiating a Framework Participation Agreement that would pave the way for Tokyo’s direct involvement in the operations and missions of the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy.

The adoption of the Strategic Partnership Agreement will be facilitated by the numerous similarities in the EU’s and Japan’s geostrategic perspectives on the world. Both are interested in preserving an open and stable maritime system globally, upon which their economic prosperity and security depend, and of the non-proliferation regime. In addition, both are aware that preserving a balance of power globally and in their respective home regions is critical to achieving these goals and they therefore oppose unilateral modifications of the status quo in contested areas. Moreover, both Europeans and Japanese are aware that they must contribute to preserving stability in other key regions, in particular the Persian Gulf and South and Central Asia, but also East Asia (in the case of Europeans) and Europe (in the case of Japan). This leads to another key common strategic objective, namely the preservation of the freedom of navigation in waterways that are key to communications within the Eurasian landmass, essentially the Indian Ocean but also, increasingly, the Arctic.

This shows that Europeans and Japanese share a great deal, because these geopolitical objectives guide their respective foreign and defence policies. Of course, they differ when it comes to prioritising, in the sense that they each give more attention to their immediate vicinities and the further away they get from them the less resources and political support there is available for supporting their objectives and vision. As such, the ‘meeting places’, and perhaps the best venues, for security cooperation between Japan and Europe are the so-called ‘middle spaces’ of the Indian Ocean, Central Asia and the Arctic, namely the areas that straddle geopolitically the Euro-Mediterranean neighbourhood and Asia-Pacific, in the sense that instability in those areas deeply affects both Europeans and Japanese.

The question, therefore, is a more operational one: how can Europeans and Japanese cooperate to underpin a balance of power in the ‘middle spaces’? It is difficult to overstate the importance of the Indian Ocean in the context of Europe-Japan relations. Over 90% of the trade between Europe and East Asia is seaborne and is largely conducted through that ocean. The Indian Ocean leads Europeans and Japanese to the mineral riches of East Africa and to the Indian sub-continent –an important source of cheap labour and manufactured products–. Given their demographic projection, East Africa and the Indian sub-continent offer considerable potential as investment and export markets in the medium and long term. Critically, the Indian Ocean is the gateway to the Persian Gulf, which is the main source of oil for Europe and Japan –as well as an important source of gas–.

More broadly, the increasing dependence of countries like China, India, Japan and South Korea on Persian-Gulf energy means the economic development and stability of East Asia is increasingly tied to the Middle East. Thus, Europeans and Japanese share two fundamental geostrategic objectives: the security of the Indian Ocean Sea Lanes of Communication (SLoC) and the existence of a balance of power in the Indian Ocean ‘rim’. The fight against piracy in the Gulf of Aden is an important step for Europe-Japan cooperation in an Indian Ocean context –and could be complemented with similar efforts in the area of the Strait of Malacca–. However, such cooperation should be extended into other areas such as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, joint surface and subsurface patrols, and naval exercises and training.

Admittedly, Central Asia’s importance as a trade conduit between Asia and Europe pales in comparison to that of the Indian Ocean. Current efforts to reinvigorate the notion of a Eurasian ‘silk road’ could conceivably lead to a revaluation of the continental connection between Europe and Asia. However, measured against the Indian Ocean, continental routes remain both more expensive and riskier –as they cross multiple countries in geopolitically unstable areas such as South Asia, the Middle East and Central Asia itself–. Having said that, both Europeans and Japanese are interested in Central Asia’s energy and mineral riches.

If Europeans and Japanese are to fully exploit the energy and mineral potential of Central Asia they must help uphold a (favourable) balance of power in the region. This becomes particularly important as NATO forces wind down their presence in Afghanistan and Russia and China consolidate their influence across Central Asia. The spectre of Russian political hegemony, Chinese economic dominance or some form of Sino-Russian condominium would cut the Central Asian republics off from the global economic system. In order to prevent this from happening, Europeans and Japanese must continue to work alongside the US, India and like-minded partners to help underpin the autonomy of Afghanistan and the Central Asian republics and promote political and economic cooperation between them.

The Arctic is another region where Europeans and Japanese have much in common. It is estimated to hold some 20% of the world’s gas reserves and around 25% of its oil reserves. As such, Europeans and Japanese see the development of the ‘High North’ as an opportunity to reduce their energy dependence on Russia and the Persian Gulf. Beyond energy, as the polar ice caps continue to melt, the Arctic Ocean promises to facilitate the communication between Europe and North-East Asia by cutting the shipping route from Hamburg to Shanghai by some 6,400km.

As China, Japan and South Korea reach northwards and Russia, the US, Canada and northern Europeans consolidate their positions in the Arctic, the ‘High North’ is likely to become an increasingly crowded and contested geopolitical space. Europeans and Japanese must therefore work alongside their North-American partners to ensure regional stability and the adequate integration of the ‘High North’ as an energy and communications hub in the rules-based international liberal order.

Another key security issue that is a common concern to the EU and Japan, and in which they share a principled position, is the maintenance of the non-proliferation regime. Unlike some of their traditional allies, all EU member states and Japan have signed and ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty. The nuclear and missile programmes of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea pose the most blatant threat to the non-proliferation regime and also a direct threat to Japan, mainly due to the maintenance of US military bases on Japanese soil and the risk of an accident in a missile test, and to a common ally, the US. Therefore, it is imperative for the EU, its member States and Japan to maintain a common position on the issue. So far, the EU and Japan have cooperated to counter the threat through the imposition of economic sanctions and by opening the door for meaningful dialogue with Pyongyang. As the North Korean nuclear programme develops, Europe and Japan should work closer together to defend a common stance that keeps putting economic and diplomatic pressure on Pyongyang and preclude both the recognition of North Korea as a nuclear power and military intervention.

Another area for cooperation between Europe and Japan is Strategic Communication. The dissatisfaction of some sectors of the European and Japanese populations with the international liberal order is fuelled by hybrid practices, such as information warfare and fake news from Russia and China. In this context, new Strategic Communication policies are needed in Europe and Japan to increase domestic support for the maintenance of the international liberal order, providing tools to better communicate its benefits and potential for reform and the eventual implications of its fall.

Conclusions

The rise of emerging powers and a significant questioning of key pillars of the liberal order in some OECD countries bring uncertainty to the durability of the current international order. Despite its shortcomings, this open and rule-based international liberal order has created conditions for reaching unprecedented levels of socioeconomic development and stability across the world. Therefore, likeminded actors such as Europe and Japan should redouble their efforts to reinvest the features of the liberal order that favour inclusiveness and fairness. Doing so, they will make it less likely for rising powers to resort to force to secure their interests and will deal more effectively with daunting traditional security threats and the provision of global common goods. The adoption of an EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement and a Strategic Partnership Agreement would be the clearest signal that Brussels and Tokyo are joining forces in such a task.

*About the authors:
Mario Esteban
, Senior Analyst, Elcano Royal Institute, and Professor at the Autonomous University of Madrid | @wizma9

Luis Simon, Director of the Elcano Royal Institute’s Brussels office and Research Professor at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel | @LuisSimn

Source:
This article was published by Elcano Royal Institute

Notes:
1. For a deeper discussion of the future of the liberal world order see Charles Powell (2017), ‘¿Tiene futuro el orden liberal internacional?’, ARI nr 56/2017, Elcano Royal Institute.

Weather Patterns, Farm Income, Other Factors, May Be Influencing Opioid Crisis

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The overprescribing of opioid-based painkillers may be the main driver of the increased abuse of opioids in rural America, but economists say that other factors, including declining farm income, extreme weather and other natural disasters, may affect a crisis that is killing thousands of citizens and costing the country billions of dollars.

In a study of relationships between socioeconomic variables and opioid-related drug overdoses, researchers found several correlations that are often not discussed in the current conversation about the nation’s deaths of despair, which includes opioid overdoses, said Stephan Goetz, professor of agricultural and regional economics, Penn State and director of the Northeast Regional Center for Rural Development.

For example, a higher number of natural disasters experienced historically in a county is correlated with an increase in opioid overdoses, according to the researchers. They used presidentially declared disasters by county from FEMA — the Federal Emergency Management Agency — to determine the effect of natural disasters on opioid deaths. These disasters primarily include weather-related events, such as hurricanes, droughts and floods.

If climatologists’ warnings are correct, a changing climate could produce more extreme weather patterns, which could then have an effect on opioid overdoses and deaths, said Goetz, who worked with Meri Davlasheridze, assistant professor in marine sciences, Texas A&M at Galveston.

Income also matters, according to the researchers. For each $10,000 reduction in net income per farm, opioid overdoses rose by 10 percent from a national average of 10.2 deaths per 100,000 people to 11.2 deaths per 100,000 people. Opioid-related deaths are also increasing in rural counties, they added.

“Our results confirm that economic factors, including income especially and unemployment, as well as population density — or rurality — are important,” said Goetz. “As we are controlling for economic factors, population density appears to play an independent role in accounting for the disparate death rates.”

Goetz added that it is important to use caution when interpreting this data.

“We are giving each county the same weight in our statistical analysis and the farming population is not that big — it’s about one or two percent of the U.S. population,” said Goetz. “But, there could be a spillover effect — if the farm income declines, the rest of the rural economy suffers.”

Estimates indicate that opioid-related drug overdoses cost the country $432 billion in 2015, according to the researchers, who presented their findings at a recent meeting of the Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) annual meeting in Philadelphia.

“To give some sense of this, the opioid crisis is a problem that is magnitudes of order larger than the costs associated with weather-related disasters in 2017,” said Goetz. “This is a far-reaching problem — and it cuts across social, economic and political lines.”

There are some glimmers of hope in the research, Goetz said. For example, overdoses among younger people seem to be declining, Goetz said. The highest rates of overdose are among people in the 45- to 64-year-old range.

Because the self-employed have lower rates of overdose, the researchers suggest that self-employment also seems to be a deterrent against the opioid crisis.

“Sometimes we think of the self-employed, or entrepreneurs as more stressed and as people who might be looking for an escape from those pressures, but that doesn’t appear to be the case in opioid use,” said Goetz.

The researchers theorize that one reason this wave of opioid deaths may be higher in rural counties is because of the low number of mental-health treatment facilities in those areas and, perhaps, the stigma attached to seeking help in those facilities.

“There are far fewer mental-health treatment facilities, so if you have a problem, you might not know where to go for help,” Goetz said. “We’re thinking that one of the things we need to investigate in the future is whether awareness is the problem or is there a stigma? These are all important issues to consider and they could be addressed through educational or other programs.”

Predicting The Behavior Of Invasive Weeds

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Is it possible to predict which nonnative plant species will become invasive weeds and when? According to research featured in the journal Invasive Plant Science and Management, the answer is “hopefully yes.” And those predictions can lead to more effective and cost-efficient weed management.

Researchers say invasive species generally follow a three-phase development curve – from lag to expansion to plateau. The length and rapidity of the expansion phase varies across species and determines how aggressively a plant spreads.

“Understanding the source of this variation can help us predict which nonnative species become invasive,” said Pedro M. Antunes, who co-authored of the paper with Dr. Brandon Schamp, both of Algoma University in Ontario, Canada. “The key is to take a best practices-based approach to gathering and comparing data about past invaders, their traits and preferred habitats.”

Examples of the best practices the research team recommends:

  • Use herbarium records collected by universities, museums and governmental organizations as a data source for invasion curves. They provide some of the most comprehensive plant distribution information available – some dating back to the 1700s.
  • Verify the accuracy of the records and confirm the origin and taxonomic status of each specimen using international Food and Agriculture Organization criteria.
  • Account for phylogenetic relatedness by creating a “family tree” that shows the linkages among various plants.
  • Systematically collect new data annually from 10×10 km quadrats to evaluate abundance of nonnative species.
  • Compare invasion curves to determine which traits are linked to more aggressive growth and expansion.

“As our knowledge increases, we can make better-informed predictions about the likelihood of particular species becoming invasive and the timeline they will travel as they do so,” Antunes said. “We then can take advantage of the lag time before the plant population expands to intervene with appropriate management controls.”

Researchers Identify Universal Language Connecting People

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Tin Pan Alley, the Brill Building, Motown – all names synonymous with the creation of often formulaic yet highly successful styles of popular music that swept out of the United States and spread around the globe. Without being aware of it, these mid-twentieth-century hit-makers underpinned the finding of a new study: there are universal elements in music that connect with people everywhere.

In a paper published in the journal Current Biology, researchers from Harvard University in the US and New Zealand’s Victoria University of Wellington say songs with a similar purpose – love songs, lullabies or dance music – tend to sound similar, no matter which culture they come from, Cosmos Magazine says.

The findings are consistent with the existence of universal links between form and function in vocal music, the researchers say.

“Despite the staggering diversity of music influenced by countless cultures and readily available to the modern listener, our shared human nature may underlie basic musical structures that transcend cultural differences,” says the report’s lead author, psychologist Samuel Mehr, from Harvard.

“We show that our shared psychology produces fundamental patterns in song that transcend our profound cultural differences,” adds co-author Manvir Singh, also from Harvard. “This suggests that our emotional and behavioural responses to aesthetic stimuli are remarkably similar across widely diverging populations.”

The researchers say they have found evidence of recurrent, perceptible features of three domains of vocal music across 86 human societies. These inform the striking consistency of understanding across listeners from around the globe – “listeners,” the add, “who presumably know little or nothing about the music of indigenous peoples”.

Among non-human animals, there are links between form and function in vocalisation. For instance, when a lion roars or an eagle screeches, it sounds hostile to naive human listeners. But it wasn’t clear whether the same concept held in human song.

Spain: Average Pension 1,074.83 Euros, Up 1.91% From Year Ago

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The monthly total of contributory pensions paid out by the Spanish Social Security system amounted to 8.91 billion euros at 1 January. The year-on-year increase stands at 2.97%.

The average retirement pension stood at 1,074.83 euros, 1.91% higher than for the same period last year. The average pension from the Spanish Social Security system as a whole, which includes all the various types of pension available (retirement, permanent disability, widowhood, orphanhood, and those paid out to relatives), stood at 930.27 euros, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.82%.

In summary, the public system currently comprises more than 9.5 million contributory pensions in total (9,572,422), an increase of 1.13% on last year.

At 5,883,810, more than half of these are retirement pensions, while 2,359,665 are widowhood pensions, 949,857 are permanent disability pensions, 337,848 are orphanhood pensions and 41,242 are pensions paid out to relatives


Pakistan’s Dam Despair – Analysis

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By Priyanka Singh*

The Diamer Bhasha Dam (DBD) project to be built in Gilgit Baltistan in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir is showing signs of distress yet again with Pakistan’s November 2017 decision not to let the project be subsumed under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Over the years, the DBD project with a slated capacity of 4500 MW has been beset by several controversies due to an array of complications. Within Pakistan, the project is politically contentious and considered ecologically perilous, given its location in a high seismic zone. The most daunting challenge has been lack of funds to support the humungous construction cost conservatively estimated at $14 billion a few years ago. Since its genesis, this project on River Indus as part of Water and Power Development Authority’s (WAPDA) Water Vision 2025 has witnessed unprecedented delays owing to numerous logistical hurdles. Moreover, there are geopolitical implications considering that the site of the project is located in a region claimed by India.

In the middle of November 2017, reports surfaced that talks between Pakistan and China on the DBD have hit a rough patch owing to China putting forth a pre-condition that it will “construct, operate and maintain” the dam.1 This came after China had in principle agreed to finance the project a few months earlier. It was noted that China demanded collateral security in the form of another operational dam, considering DBD’s high net cost and inherent risk element. At a briefing of the Public Accounts Committee, the chairman of WAPDA, Muzammil Hussain, informed that the Chinese conditionalities attached to its funding involved serious issues concerning transfer of ownership, which were “not doable and against our interests.”2

Conflicting signals

When the remarks of WAPDA Chairman were widely reported in the Pakistani media, the Chinese side initially pleaded ignorance of the claims. In reply to questions from the media, a spokesperson of China’s Foreign Ministry denied any knowledge in this regard.3 A few days later, a statement from China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the steering agency for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), rejected the contentions, insisting that none of the “hyper strict conditions” have been put up by China.4 Significantly, the NDRC official denied that any decision was previously taken to absorb the DBD under CPEC as it is not included in CPEC’s list of energy projects.5 The status as per the proceedings of the 7th Joint Coordination Committee held in mid-December 2017 is that the China-proposed financing structure on DBD is not acceptable to Pakistan and that Pakistan will source funds for the mega dam project domestically.6

The situation arising out of Pakistan’s refusal to accept Chinese pre-conditions on DBD is the latest in a series of deadlocks that the project has witnessed. Not long ago, it was indicated that the Chinese side is willing to fund the DBD project, first under CPEC and later under the aegis of the $50 billion North Indus Cascade project — a series of China-funded dams being built across Gilgit Baltistan and Pakistan. Since a separate $50 billion was announced to support crucial hydropower projects in Pakistan and PoK, it appeared that the DBD will finally reach fruition with Chinese support. Even as the proclamations on DBD by the government of Pakistan have been ambiguous, a critical thread of continuity relates to the dearth of funds for the mega dam project.

Crisis rebound

The present crisis is a mere replication of past situations. The decision by the Pakistan government to withdraw the project from the Chinese fold does not come as a surprise, given the project’s recent history. Even International Financial Institutions (IFIs) have refused to fund the project citing numerous complications. The World Bank backed off citing the dam’s location in a disputed region while the Asian Development Bank (ADB) put forth a list of stringent pre-conditions that have to be met by Pakistan before it could consider funding the project.

The DBD has witnessed countless hurdles, the foremost being Pakistan’s inability to rope in funds for a project of this scale. Originally estimated at $8 billion, the project cost estimates have spiralled up tremendously over the years. A sense of hopelessness and anguish set in as the project witnessed multiple ground-breaking ceremonies. As hopes to procure funds from the World Bank and ADB were dashed, Pakistan approached the United States to rescue the project by urging it to divert funds from the non-military US development assistance. The US at a certain point did indicate signs of lending financial support for the project.7

China’s risk control?

China’s decision to pump billions into the violence-ridden investment landscape of Pakistan is a decision which is antithetical to what has often been described as its preference for risk-averse behaviour. It is frequently argued that China avoids putting money in projects that either absorb huge volumes of funds or are generally rated low on the count of feasibility. As a result, all this while, there was an inherent doubt as to why and how the Chinese have agreed to support the DBD, especially since they refused to do so in the past. The expansion of CPEC and the subsequent announcement of the North Indus Cascade in May 2017, however, had a sobering impact, particularly on those who were pessimistic about the Chinese plan. In the current phase, China insisting on conducting a fresh feasibility study for the project does indicate efforts at risk minimization and underpins long-held perceptions about China’s risk aversion. Incidentally, China’s proposal on repeating a feasibly assessment for DBD has been declined by Pakistan.8

Even as the DBD has been touted as a project that would enhance Pakistan’s energy security, Pakistan’s dogged efforts to realise it at any cost have had to encounter India’s persistent objections. Despite the fact that the US and China have featured more prominently in the fray of potential funders (both countries separately organised donors’ conferences for DBD), it is conjectured that other important countries like Russia and Japan, too, have been approached at some point. It is, therefore, of some relevance to evaluate China’s reluctance on the DBD through the geopolitical lens apart from just economic considerations. DBD is a project that India has consistently been opposed to, based on its standing claims and rights to Gilgit Baltistan and withdrawing from it could be seen as China circumscribing a rather mounting list of strategic irritants vis-à-vis India.

Whither DBD: roadblock or dead-end?

The DBD is a mammoth project slated to absorb billions of dollars in order to materialise. Though the project promises to end Pakistan’s severe energy problem, the sheer size and budget make it infeasible for a struggling economy like Pakistan. Both the US and China have been reticent on DBD given the size of the project and the consequent need for a large amount of funds. For Pakistan, it has become a project that, if allowed to fail will cause a huge loss of face considering that the India factor is involved. Pakistan’s determination to build the project with indigenous funding may prove even more difficult than obtaining foreign funding. While it is true that the economy has shown signs of improvement, the crisis is far from over. The rupee stands devalued further and given Pakistan’s frosty ties with the US currently, funding from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) may not be as forthcoming.

A few curious trends in the Sino-Pakistan economic alliance are further visible. DBD is not a standalone case in this regard. Funds have been suspended for at least three other projects under the CPEC, on account of issuance of fresh Chinese guidelines. Considering that CPEC lacks overall transparency, be it in terms of engagement or finer details of project instrumentalities, it is rather premature to draw reliable inferences from particular instances. Amidst voices that allege that the CPEC is being rather discreet regarding key details of the various projects under implementation, the Corridor is indeed gradually taking shape.

The more essential point is this: the nature of the relationship between China and Pakistan is such that there is always more than what meets the eye. It is worthwhile to recall the clandestine nuclear cooperation between the two, the events leading up to the signing of the Sino-Pakistan border agreement of 1963, etc. The bilateral partnership has endured serious incongruities and crisis situations in past. Hence, for the two sides to eventually negotiate a desirable understanding on DBD at some point cannot be ruled out.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India.

About the author:
*Priyanka Singh
is Associate Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.

Source:
This article was published by IDSA.

Notes:

Mexico’s Elections Likely To Generate Violence – Analysis

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By Michael Lettieri*

The first month of 2018 has been a dismal one for Mexico: more than 200 murders in the first two weeks, continuing the surge of bloodshed that intensified throughout last year. This crisis of public security is not necessarily the result of a sudden shift in the criminal landscape, but rather the product of several longer-term processes. Unfortunately, all of these trends suggest a grim outlook for Mexico’s immediate future.

These perilous conditions have been long in the making and over the next six months, as the country approaches the largest elections[i] in its history, three interrelated factors—all connected to the localization of crime—are likely to result in an increased tempo of violence:

First, over the past decade, as the transnational drug war reached unprecedented levels of viciousness, local crime also become more predatory in nature. As the balance of power tipped away from state authorities, smaller bands—affiliated to greater or lesser degrees with transnational trafficking organizations—aggressively expanded into kidnapping, extortion, and oil theft.

Second, criminal groups have begun to extract rents from local authorities, using coercive tactics to capture a portion of local budgets. This is a new layer on traditional political protection arrangements between corrupt officials and local organized crime operators, and a development that has proven very disconcerting and destabilizing.

Third, recent violence is increasingly connected to local drug dealing. As the domestic market for narcotics has grown, trafficking organizations have violently colonized local retail operations. And as Noroeste reported, the multiplication of small drug dealing cells has tended to produce unchecked bloodshed. Moreover, in areas such as Tijuana where DTOs dispute both the shipment routes and local markets for drugs, the combination has proven explosive, and difficult to contain.

Ultimately, the emphasis here is that understanding Mexico’s near future requires a careful monitoring of localized trends and patterns, rather than narco narratives protagonized by cartels and capos. From this perspective, furthermore, the importance of presidential elections and NAFTA renegotiations becomes much less clear. Though much recent punditry on Mexico has focused on those two themes, and particularly the possible victory of Andres Manuel López Obrador, much more attention is due the municipal elections, which will be held in 25 states this year. It is these elections that stand to be most affected by violence, and it is their process and context—rather than the outcomes—that matter. Because Mexico’s security strategy does not effectively address the three trends discussed above, there is much more reason for concern.

Most worrisome is the possibility that these local elections will encourage widespread turmoil as criminal gangs seek to set the terms for all candidates. While there has been, in past years, a great deal of handwringing about “narco-candidates”—that is, candidates who are actively supported and sponsored by organized crime groups—the central problem is not necessarily the potential for the corruption of elected officials, but the risk that local politics become a sort of plaza, disputed by competing groups.[ii]

There is ample evidence that mayors and other officials are at risk, whether because they refuse the advances of organized crime (Gisela Mota being perhaps the most famous example in recent years) or because they break the terms of an agreement (such as Jorge Toledo Bustamante, who was captured on video being extorted by members of the Los Rojos organization; his personal secretary was subsequently murdered). And as the Toledo Bustamante case makes clear, this violence is not necessarily always about whether or not elected officials provide cover for criminal organizations, turning a blind eye to their activities and on occasion putting police at their service, in the traditional formulation of narco corruption. Rather, it now appears that local groups regularly demand a percentage of municipal budgets: in one case, it was revealed that in five municipalities in Michoacán, members of a DTO were demanding a 10% share of the money those localities received from the federal government.

Beyond such payouts, criminal groups have also tapped public resources through involvement in construction contracts or by placing members on municipal payrolls. This wholesale criminal predation on the state means that officials themselves—and therefore candidates and elections— have become unavoidable targets. Most significantly, this danger includes candidates not yet in office, and extends beyond mayors to include city councillors and others whose role in public administration would not necessarily suggest a connection to organized crime. The process of negotiating these understandings as administrations turnover is likely to foment violence, both before and after voters go to the polls.

The stakes are substantial. For the first time, mayors will be eligible for reelection at the end of their three-year term. As domestic extortion of businesses, kidnapping, oil theft, and drug dealing become increasingly valuable, local control will become hotly contested. Criminal groups violently defend these activities not simply because they are inherently lucrative, but because they provide a safer and more stable source of revenue than international narcotics trafficking. For local gangsters who normally might only receive retainers or sporadic commissions from DTOs, predatory activities are more than side businesses: they are a raison d’être.

Unfortunately, the policy response to these developments has been primarily to further militarize the conflict by regularizing the participation of the armed forces in law enforcement. While the passage of the controversial Internal Security Law primarily provides legal grounding for a de facto reality, it also represents the continuation of a strategy that is wholly inappropriate for addressing the fundamentally local problems described here.

Where the military has proven most effective in combating narcotrafficking has been in targeted, intelligence-driven operations resulting in the capture of criminal leaders. When tasked with policing, it has largely failed, unsurprising considering that many soldiers are poorly trained for local patrol operations. Even more importantly, the military’s operations have produced serious human rights abuses, often covered up and protected by the military court system. Furthermore, militarized patrols are often a poor response to predatory local criminal activity. Such federal military activity does not strengthen the local state against predation, nor does it efficiently protect citizens from extortion or investigate crimes against them. Neither does it address the addiction issues that fuel domestic drug dealing and its satellite activities.

Solutions are possible. Smaller criminal groups have less capacity to corrupt, and their reliance on brutality and terror may be unsustainable. Meaningful police reform, development programs targeting young men, and addiction treatment programs would all go a long way toward addressing the issue. Because until security strategies address these local issues, violence will remain difficult to contain and local elections will continue to be reasons for bona fide concern in the near future.

*Michael Lettieri Ph.D., Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

[i] This is the largest election in the country’s history, by number of positions being elected. This is due to the process of synchronizing local and federal elections.

[ii] The term plaza is used not to evoke a physical space, but rather the extension of ‘free speech’ rights given to violent criminal groups.

Scientists Seek Trudeau’s Backing For Canada As Global Leader In Climate Research

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By J C Suresh

In the face of U.S. President Donald Trump claiming that “the concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive,” international scientists have lauded Canada’s achievements in the field, and called for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to re-invest in climate science.

In an open letter to him, released in Ottawa on January 22, hundreds of prominent international scientists have raised concern that a crisis is looming for Canadian climate and atmospheric research following the government’s failure to renew or replace the Climate Change and Atmospheric Research (CCAR) program which funded seven research networks.

“Canada is uniquely placed to monitor the changing atmosphere in the high Arctic regions,” said Dr. Clare Murphy, Director of the Centre for Atmospheric Chemistry at the University of Wollongong in Australia. “As such Canadian atmospheric and climate science plays a pivotal role in the global effort to understand our changing environment.”

The CCAR funded projects measure, observe and model many important international environmental issues including: aerosols; biogeochemical tracers in the Arctic Ocean; sea ice and snow cover; weather prediction and climate projection; changes to land, water, and climate; and the temperature of the atmosphere in the high Arctic.

The government provided temporary funding for one of the CCAR projects, the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL), in November 2017. This funding only goes until 2019 and there has been no new funding announced for the other projects, says the letter.

“At the highest levels of government in the United States, climate science is devalued and dismissed,” says Dr. Benjamin D. Santer, a climate researcher at the U.S. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories and a MacArthur Fellow.

“In these difficult times, U.S. climate scientists look to our Canadian neighbors for encouragement. Canada possesses unique capabilities for measuring, monitoring, and modeling climate change. I hope that the Canadian government is committed to sustaining these unique capabilities, and is committed to preserving Canada’s role as one of the world’s leaders in climate science.”

The letter highlights the importance of Canadian climate science at a time when research funding is being cut in other countries and urges Prime Minister Trudeau to ensure that Canada continues to be a global leader in climate science by re-investing in these valuable research projects that have international significance.

“Canada is a world leader in climate science, and is uniquely positioned – by geography, resources, and expertise – to observe and study the Arctic, arguably the most critical region on Earth for quantifying how and why the climate is changing and predicting future changes,” says Dr. Gloria Manney, Senior Research Scientist at the Northwest Research Associates in the U.S.

She adds: “Continuous, stable funding support for Canadian atmospheric and climate science is thus crucial to advancing understanding of our planet.” Canadian and U.S. expertise in measuring, analyzing, and modeling changes in climate and weather and their effects on humanity is unparalleled, nors Dr. Manney.

With the U.S. now abdicating leadership on, and potentially undermining support for, climate science in the U.S., sustained support for Canadian climate science is doubly important, the researcher declares

“With the Montreal protocol, Canada has played a unique and pioneering role in the protection of our environment. Since decades, its involvement in the monitoring of the Earth’s atmosphere through satellite and ground-based measurements has been critical for the understanding of the depletion of the ozone layer and climate change,” notes Dr. Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Director of Research at Centre National de La Recherche Scientifique in France and President of International Ozone Commission (IO3C).

She adds: “Arctic is a sentinel of climate change. Due to its location, Canada’s leadership in the study and monitoring of Arctic atmosphere has become even more important to our understanding of the rapidly evolving Arctic climate and environment.”

Bicarbonate Of Soda Could Spare Women Risk Of C-Section

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Lack of access to a caesarean section, or complications arising from one, accounts for many deaths in developing countries, but now a team of scientists has identified that a simple drink of bicarbonate of soda could make all the difference.

A simple kitchen stable that is cheap, accessible and easy to use has the potential to save lives, as a recent study has demonstrated. Labor fails when contractions are not strong enough and treatment with oxytocin is usually the next step. If that doesn’t work then a Caesarean section can be the solution.

But in rural environments in developing countries these may not be options and if a C-section can be carried out at all, there may be complications. The World Health Organisation explains that almost all maternal deaths (99 %) occur in developing countries and that the risk of maternal mortality is highest for adolescent girls under 15 years old. Complications in pregnancy and childbirth is a leading cause of death among adolescent girls in developing countries.

A simple sachet of sodium bicarbonate from the corner shop could help women give birth naturally

A study just conducted, involving 200 women, found that, when dissolved in water, bicarbonate of sodium enables between 17 and 20 % of women having slow or difficult labours to give birth naturally, without harming their babies.

Professor Susan Wray, from the University of Liverpool, and a team of researchers at the Karolinska Institute in Sweden, gave bicarbonate of soda to 100 women in labour experiencing difficulties, as well as oxytocin. Another 100 women were treated with just oxytocin. The results, published in the journal of Maternal-Fetal & Neonatal Medicine, found those who had bicarbonate of soda increased their chances of a vaginal delivery.

‘The study was conducted with clinical colleagues in Sweden, and there at the corner shop you can buy this as an antacid, it really is low rent,’ said Prof Wray.

Why sodium bicarb?

Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme, Prof Wray explained that studies at the University of Liverpool had found that the levels of acidity in the blood surrounding the uterus of women suffering a failure to progress in labour was significantly higher than any other group.

Prof Wray and her team hypothesised that if they could neutralise that acid in these women, that would help them to have a normal, spontaneous vaginal delivery and avoid the surgery. Without knowing which group they were in, one group received oxytocin alone, while the other had bicarbonate of sodium to in the hope of neutralising the acid in their uterus, then oxytocin one hour later.

Describing the outcome as ‘amazing’, Professor Wray added, ‘We were able to significantly increase the number of women having a spontaneous delivery, avoiding the emergency Caesarean section. Not by just a few percent, but by around 17-20 %.’

She stressed that the study was a small, randomised controlled study. ‘But nevertheless we had 100 women in each of the two groups of our study and that was sufficient to rule out confounding factors like differences in BMI.’

A simple solution to an urgent problem could be on the way

If the work they carried out with the cohort of 200 is replicable, the researchers could have proven a way to reduce maternal mortality and suffering using a very cheap, shop floor medication and kitchen cabinet staple. The team are really keen to replicate the results in more centres, but what Prof Wray is really looking forward to doing is getting one branch of the study up and running in sub-Saharan Africa. Liverpool has good links with hospitals in Uganda and Malawi, for example.

‘In those low resource settings I’m sorry to say that women still die in large numbers in childbirth and this failure to progress is one of the reasons. So if those women could have this as a treatment, avoid surgery which, in any case may not be available to them or when it is, it’s not without significant risk, that would be just wonderful. Because you don’t need to keep this in the fridge, don’t need electricity… it’s so exciting.’

Cordis source: Based on media reports

A Custom-Fit App For Community Policing

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Apps allowing citizens to report crimes or incidents are now commonplace, but they generally fail to adapt local contexts, cultures and sensibilities. SecureU, a new app that addresses this shortcoming, is currently being tested in five European cities.

The emergence of the web 2.0 has provided us citizens with a highway to higher participation in the society we live in. We can easily voice our opinion on a large-scale, but also potentially gather enough support to shape societal change, all this in record time. This applies to politics, for instance, but also to law enforcement.

Since 2010, smartphone apps enabling citizens to report crimes or incidents have been cropping up at an increased pace. In light of the predominantly Anglo-Saxon approach to these apps, however, the CITYCOP (Citizen Interaction Technologies Yield Community Policing) project set out to identify the reasons behind the lack of European alternatives before developing a solution of its own, reflecting the diversity of European cities and societies.

Prof. Dr Jeanne Pia Mifsud Bonnici, coordinator of CITYCOP for the University of Groningen, discusses the project’s outcomes a few months away from its completion in May 2018.

How do you explain that user-generated content is becoming so important in crime reporting?

There are several reasons for that. Firstly, it’s an innovative way to directly engage with police, and it gives community members a greater sense of contribution by providing them with more convenient options to report crimes, quality of life issues and suspicious activity. These have become essential components of the 21st century’s policing.

Secondly, such methods of direct engagement and contribution help improve the efficiency of police operations, allowing more effort to be directed towards solving crimes and addressing community concerns.

The project aimed to explain why the EU is lagging behind. What did you find out in this regard?

The relationship between police and community members in the EU is unique. Our research showed that the definition of community policing varies greatly from country to country. Whereas some parts of Europe have decades of experience with community-oriented policing, for others, the concept is relatively new and just beginning to take shape in respect with cultural sensitivities and historical relationships with law enforcement.

Because of this, there cannot be a ‘one size fits all’ approach to technological solutions that support these programmes. Before innovation can take hold and bear measurable benefit, there needs to be a demonstrable commitment to engaging and building trust.

How does your app solve these problems?

SecureU takes the needs of both the community and police into account, by providing a local ‘flavour’ to each version of the app depending on where it is offered. Our research demonstrated that people desire more positive engagement with the police. Not only through increased visibility and interaction, but also with more police communication around issues that have a direct impact on their lives.

Our solution increases communication both ways, with a privacy-by-design approach respectful of national and EU regulations.

There are three main features. First, the police can send ‘alerts’ directly to the community, providing important information such as local events, traffic incidents and matters of public safety. Then, users can report selected quality of life and criminal incidents. Finally, the app provides various forms of municipal information and a link to make emergency calls if necessary.

How does it work exactly, from both the perspective of the user and officers?

The users first download the app from Google Play or the App Store, then select a country, city and language. They are then presented with an intuitive interface allowing them to see the alerts that they have subscribed to, submit (and review previous) reports to the police and obtain information from important locations such as police, fire stations and hospitals. Users can register their personal information and share their location for ease of reporting –which is required in some locations – and in case of emergencies, which can be deleted or changed at any time.

For law enforcement, a web accessible dashboard provides several key features, the main ones being the creation, ranking and management of alerts; and the management of – and response to – reports from community members. All alerts, reports and emergencies are displayed on a map within the dashboard and can be exported to create reports for management and auditing purposes. The dashboard is easy to use, intuitive and can be used with minimal investment from participating agencies.

What are your hopes in terms of commercial success?

First and most importantly, we intend to provide a seamless transition for existing users, that is, project participants and early adopters of the technology who have contributed greatly to its success. We want to ensure that upon the project’s conclusion, there is no noticeable change in service that both the user of the app and supporting police agencies have come to enjoy.

With that being said, we will have a structure in place before the project concludes, through which new organisations and communities can adopt the CITYCOP solution. This includes the development of a toolbox summarising the results of our research, providing a framework for installation and reviewing best practices.

What do you still need to achieve before the end of the project?

We are currently conducting our pilot runs in Bucharest, Florence, Lisbon, Dublin and Kildare. Before the project concludes, we will take the results of these pilots and prepare them for presentation at our final conference in Florence in April 2018.

Our goal is not only to review and celebrate the successful conclusion of CITYCOP, but also to host an event open to residents and law enforcement agencies from throughout Europe, promoting our efforts and informing those considering our solution for use within their own communities.

Cordis source: Interview from research*eu results magazine n. 69

Davos 2018: The Talking Shop For Oligarchs, Bankers And Global Elites – OpEd

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Last week, Davos – the mountain resort, which sits high up in the eastern Alps of Switzerland in Graubunden – welcomed more than 2,500 movers and shakers – business, political and academic leaders from around the globe. They came to attend the yearly World Economic Forum (WEF), scheduled for January 23-26. It was the 48th forum to date.

As the U.S. dollar continued to plunge (losing approx. 17% of its value in a year) against the Euro and the news of his personal lawyer brokering a $130,000 payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels (whose real name is Stephanie Clifford) in October 2016 to prohibit her from publicly discussing the alleged affair before the election surfaced, President Donald Trump arrived without Melanie by his side at Davos. His speech was the most widely-anticipated moment at this year’s event. It was the first time since Bill Clinton in 2000 that a sitting U.S. leader joined the Davos elite.

Trump told the audience: “We cannot have free and open trade if some countries exploit the system at the expense of others.” His “America First” protectionism came under intense criticism at Davos. He declared, “America is open for business” and that he “wants the world to invest in America and create jobs for hard-working Americans”.

There was no talk of tearing up trade agreements or leaving the World Trade Organization. Instead, “we are working to reform the international trading system so that it promotes broadly shared prosperity and rewards to those who play by the rules.”

The U.S. didn’t want to pick fights but to “enforce our trade laws and restore integrity to our trading system. Only by insisting on fair and reciprocal trade can we create a system that works not just for the U.S. but for all nations.”

Trump even held out the possibility of rejoining the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), the draft agreement among 12 Pacific Rim countries he renounced within days of taking office.

These soothing words clearly came as a relief to the financiers, multinational executives and foreign officials in the audience. It was ironic that he would deliver such assuaging words just days after the U.S. had taken one of its most protectionist actions in years: the unilateral imposition of “safeguard” tariffs on imports of washing machines and solar panels. There is little sign, publicly, that the U.S. has bridged deep differences with Mexico and Canada on how the North American Free Trade Agreement should be rewritten.

Trump said the stock market had reached record highs on more than 80 separate occasions over the past year and tax cuts that offer most to corporations and the well-off were trickling down to workers. “We lowered our corporate tax rate from 35% all the way down to 21%. As a result, millions of workers have received tax cut bonuses from their employers in amounts as large as $3,000,” he said.

Trump’s claims were condemned by Winnie Byanyima, the executive director of Oxfam International, who said the speech amounted to a “billionaires-first” policy. “President Trump’s boastful sales pitch was a victory lap for the trillions of tax cuts that the wealthy elites and corporations have clamored for. The evidence is clear: these tax cuts are looting the US treasury to enrich the 1%,” she said.

Trump, true to his innate character, mixed facts with fictions in his speech. He falsely claimed that 2.4 million jobs were added since his presidency. However, as the New York Times showed, the actual figure is 1.8 million in the first 11 months of his presidency.

There was derision from the audience when Trump said in a question and answer session that he had not understood how “nasty, how mean, how vicious and how fake the media can be” before entering politics.

Like most autocrats and despots, Trump wants the press to act as his cheer leader and not a critic. He frowns at the notion that for a country to be responsible and powerful, its people must be informed by a free press. Way back in 1786, the 3rd US President Thomas Jefferson had famously mused that he would rather have newspapers without a government than a government without newspapers.

A sharp weakening of the US currency was one of the main discussion topics at Davos, following comments from the U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin when he said that a weaker dollar is good for the U.S. During a CNBC panel on Thursday, Jan. 25, the U.S. treasury secretary said that dollar weakness in the short term was “not a concern of mine.” He added: “In the longer term, we fundamentally believe in the strength of the dollar.”

Earlier in the week, Trump told CNBC that “the dollar is going to get stronger and stronger, and ultimately I want to see a strong dollar.”

India's Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi with the President of the Swiss Confederation, Mr. Alain Berset and the Chairman of the World Economic Forum, Professor Klaus Schwab, at the plenary session of the World Economic Forum, in Davos. Photo Credit: India PM Office.
India’s Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi with the President of the Swiss Confederation, Mr. Alain Berset and the Chairman of the World Economic Forum, Professor Klaus Schwab, at the plenary session of the World Economic Forum, in Davos. Photo Credit: India PM Office.

On Tuesday, Jan. 23, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi used the Davos event’s opening address in Hindi to speak about a “worrying trend” against globalization and towards isolationism.

“Forces of protectionism are raising their heads against globalization, their intention is not only to avoid globalization themselves but they also want to reverse its natural flow,” he said. He talked against a new wave of protectionism, saying that trade barriers posed a danger to the world that was equal to climate change and extremist attacks.

This is quite odd given the fact that for decades India maintained a tightly controlled economy and still has many regulations in place. Modi added: “The negative impact of this kind of mindset cannot be considered less dangerous than climate change or terrorism.” He urged governments not to turn towards isolationism and sought to hard sell India as an investment destination, saying those wanting wealth with wellness and peace with prosperity should come to India. He even quoted Indian independence leader MK Gandhi, by saying: “I don’t want the windows of my house to be closed from all directions. I want the winds of cultures of all countries to enter my house with assurance and go out also.”

Obviously, Mr. Modi did not talk about the current reality: since taking office, India has become an unwelcome house for tens of millions of its minority Muslim, Dalit and Christian citizens who face lynching daily in the hands of Hindutvadi fascists that his ruling party fosters. Who would be foolish to enter a house where one finds no assurance of peace, security and safety of life but only of dehumanization and slaughter? How can a state that fails to protect its own minorities, the marginalized citizens of non-Hindu faiths create a ‘heaven of future’ for outsiders?

Last year, the opening address was delivered by the Chinese President Xi Jinping who portrayed his country as a champion of free trade on the same week Trump was inaugurated president. He skipped this year’s forum. According to Chinese state media, he can take credit for shaping this year’s Davos theme, “Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured World.” State news agency Xinhua in a commentary published Jan. 24 said that specifically, the theme draws on this Xi remark: “As long as we keep to the goal of building a community of shared future for mankind and work hand in hand to fulfill our responsibilities and overcome difficulties, we will be able to create a better world and deliver better lives for our peoples.”

However, as we have seen repeatedly, talks are cheap while noble deeds are few or far between. Otherwise, how can one explain Xi’s policies that deny a ‘shared future’ for the Rohingyas who are victims of genocide inside Suu Kyi’s Myanmar (enjoying China’s protection inside and outside the UN)? How about the future of the persecuted Uighurs of Xinjiang (East Turkestan) inside China?

Germany is currently going through a political impasse — something that Europe wants to see fixed very soon with more integration. Speaking at Davos, German Chancellor Angela Merkel admitted that Germany has problems of its own. “Frankly speaking, the country I have the honor to represent and where I am chancellor has difficulties. And polarization is something that we see in our country as well, which we haven’t had for decades,” she said.

As I have noted elsewhere, Germany is not alone in experiencing the meteoric rise of neo-fascist forces in Europe, esp. since Trump’s election win. Such forces, unless checked persuasively, are bound to fracture our world irreversibly to a point of no return.

Praised by many in the business community, French President Emmanuel Macron vowed to reform France and Europe with a medium-term strategy, in order to provide clarity to investors.

“Let us not be naive, globalization is going through a major crisis and this challenge needs to be collectively fought by states and civil society in order to find and implement global solutions,” Macron said.

Is the world any safer today than before?

George Soros. Photo by Harald Dettenborn, Wikipedia Commons.
George Soros. Photo by Harald Dettenborn, Wikipedia Commons.

Billionaire investor George Soros believes that the open societies are in crisis today with the emergence of various forms of dictatorship and mafia states, esp. in the USA and Europe. He said, “Mankind’s ability to harness the forces of nature, both for constructive and destructive purposes, continues to grow while our ability to govern ourselves properly fluctuates, and it is now at a low ebb.”

Soros believes that the U.S. is on course for a nuclear war with North Korea. “The fact of nuclear war is so horrendous that we are trying to ignore it, but it is real,” Soros said during a speech on the outskirts of the World Economic Forum. “Indeed, the United States is set on a course towards nuclear war by refusing to accept that (North) Korea has become a nuclear power.” He said, “Beijing holds most of the levers of power against North Korea, but is reluctant to use them.”

Soros said, “The other major threat to the survival of our civilization is climate change, which is also a growing cause of forced migration… it is well known what needs to be done. We have the scientific knowledge; it is the political will that is missing, particularly in the Trump administration. Clearly, I consider the Trump administration a danger to the world.”

The policies of the U.S. president were under scrutiny, but not everyone was unhappy with the direction Trump is taking. “I’d say I like a lot more stuff than I don’t like, and some of the stuff I don’t like I really don’t like,” Lloyd Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs, told CNBC during an interview. “But I don’t want to be hypocritical, either. I’ve really liked what he’s done for the economy,” he added.

Canada's Justin Trudeau. Photo by Alex Guibord, Wikipedia Commons.
Canada’s Justin Trudeau. Photo by Alex Guibord, Wikipedia Commons.

Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau challenged business leaders and politicians to end gender inequality and tackle unacceptable and systemic sexual harassment. He warned that businesses and politicians are failing to help their workers and citizens in today’s “rapidly changing world”.

“Even without testosterone, we can produce positive, constructive energy,” the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde said in Davos.

Lagarde was one of seven female co-chairs at this year’s forum, drawing attention for women’s rights, including equality in the workplace.

Malala Yousafzai, the youngest Nobel Prize laureate and activist for education told the World Economic Forum that the only way to ensure women’s rights is by educating young boys. “The education of young boys on the subject of women’s rights is crucial. When we talk about feminism and women’s rights, we are talking to men. We have to teach young boys how to be men,” Malala Yousafzai said at Davos.

Australian actor Cate Blanchett criticized politicians for pandering to anti-refugee sentiment, instead of helping the millions of people displaced worldwide. She was ‘bewildered’ to see the multi-cultural Australia she grew up in “flouting the UN human rights convention”. Out of 65 million displaced people in our globe, 22 million are refugees, but just 1 per cent have been resettled in advanced developed countries. She said, “It’s the developing world that is shouldering the deep burden of refugees.”

How about the health sector?

From 2000 to 2016, the number of malaria cases worldwide dropped 60%, thanks to a large global public health effort, a number of tireless nonprofit NGOs—and targeted spending from organizations like the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Bill Gates offered his take on what would allow us to eliminate this scourge by 2040—which is a real possibility, he says, if we keep relentless energy and focus on the effort. More sophisticated precision data tools to understand how, where, and why infections are spreading, where mosquito populations are thriving, whether prevention strategies are working or not, and where we’re making progress or backsliding are needed. “We need smart data and analytics to guide the path,” Sue Desmond-Hellmann, CEO of the Gates foundation, said.

As can be seen, from the speeches and the comments on global trade, the depreciation of the dollar and women’s rights, the World Economic Forum of 2018 made headlines once again.

In his Davos speech, Trump said something that is interesting. He said, “Only by hearing and responding to the voices of the forgotten can we create a bright future that is truly shared by all.” The rich and powerful people that gathered at the Swiss mountain resort had the power to transform lives and shape their countries’ destinies, Trump added. “With this power comes an obligation, however, a duty of loyalty to the people, workers, customers, who made you who you are,” he said.

I only wish that Trump’s wonderful rhetoric here is backed up by good deeds. He has three more years to create a bright future for that ‘forgotten’ people who are fast becoming an extinct group.

As I see it, the great beneficiaries of globalization have been the richest 1% in the society. Obviously, the lectures, dialogues and discussions at Davos in the last five decades have miserably failed to make a difference. There must be a complete change in the economic model.

Getting back to Soros’s call, can our movers and shakers, leaders and governmental and non-governmental institutions and organizations empower local people to deal with their own problems, assist the disadvantaged and reduce human suffering to the greatest extent possible? Can they help to develop local economies to stop migration crisis? Do they have the sincerity and will to make that difference in the lives of so many – from the stateless Rohingyas dwelling either in the refugee slums inside Bangladesh or in the concentration camps inside Apartheid Myanmar to the ‘forgotten’ or marginalized many that live in the ghettos of Europe, Americas, Africa and Asia?

A report by Oxfam published in advance of the Davos summit revealed that half of the world’s population received no share of all wealth created globally in 2017. Billionaires increased their wealth by $762 billion last year, enough to end “global extreme poverty seven times over”, the UK-based charity’s annual inequality report said.

As long as such inequalities exist in our world, the WEF would only be viewed – and rightly so – as a “talking shop” incapable of delivering meaningful change.

Inside Morocco’s Foreign Policy – Analysis

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Historical background

Morocco is one of the most ancient political and social entities in the African continent and in the world, its known history is almost 4000 years old, with its Amazigh native population even ruling Egypti as pharaohs in past history.ii It had contacts with the Phoenicians in 1100 BC and, at the same time, its first contact with Judaism brought along with these peaceful merchants.

The Phoenicians established trade centers along the coasts, Lixus on the mouth of the river of the same name , in the north, in the outskirts of the city of Larache. The Phoenicians also built trade centers in Tingis (Tangier), Zili (Asilah), Sala (Salé) and Mogador (Essaouira).

Map of the Phoenician trading posts (12th century BC)
Map of the Phoenician trading posts (12th century BC)

Later on, around 500 BC, the Carthaginians took over these centers and added to them Tamuda, near Tetouan and Ksar Sghir, on the Mediterranean. Very much like the Phoenicians their sole aim was trade and not territory control or political hegemony.

In 146 BC, after the Romans won the Third Punic War, they took over the territories that were under the control of the Phoenicians and as such had their first foreign colonies and became an empire. Morocco was known, then, as Mauretania Tingitana and Volubilis was its capital.

Map of the Mediterranean Roman empire
Map of the Mediterranean Roman empire

The Romans left quite an imprint on the Moroccan way of life, they taught the native Amazigh (Berbers) sophsticated techniques of agriculture and irrigation and traces of that are still found today in their Tamazight language.iii Their presence lasted until the end of the third century, then Berber tribal chiefs took control of the country until 429 AD when the Vandals arrived with the intention of plunder, but did not stay long because for them there were more riches to acquire in the east.

When Justinian took over the throne of Byzantium, The Byzantines came to Morocco around 527 AD but they could not reestablish the whole Roman empire because the Amazigh had gained in power and military sophistication.iv

Islam arrived in Morocco around 690 AD, and in 711 AD an Amazigh general Tariq ibnou Zayad, at the head of over 30 000 Berber warriors crossed the straight of Gibraltar, that was named after him (Jabal Tariq) and took control of Christian Spain, he renamed al-Andalus. Morocco did not stay long under the eastern Muslim Caliphate, in 740 AD the Islamized Amazigh regained their independence and held on to it since.

Since then, Morocco was ruled by homegrown dynasties, the Idrissids (789-974), the Almoravids (1060-1147), the Almohads (1145-1266), the Marinids (1244-1465), the Wattasids (1472-1554), the Saadians (1549-1659) and the Alaouites (1666-Present).v

Morocco’s Foreign policy in the past (1060-1912)

The Berber Dynasties (1060-1554)

Since the independence of Morocco from the eastern Caliphate in 740 AD, Morocco gained the status of an empire and projected its influence all the way to Ifriquia (Tunisia), Western Africa and Muslim Spain.

In 1031, the Caliphate of Cordoba weakened and collapsed and, as a result, fragmented into a myriad emirates called taifas,vi ruled by weak emirs who sought either to form alliances with the Christian kingdoms, seeking to regain control of Spain, by paying tribute parias for protection. However, in the long run, the situation became intolerable as the emirate of Toledo was literally taken over by the Christian king Alfonso VI in 1085.

In view of this unsustainable situation, the taifas decided to call upon their Muslim brethren in the south i.e. the powerful Almoravid dynasty. This request was officially formulated by al-Mu’tamid in 1086. The Sultan Yusuf Ibn Tashfin, then, moved into Spain to shore up the weak kinglets by pushing back the aggressive Catholic kingdoms of Spain, anxious to reconquer Andalusia.

The Almoravids defeated the Christians under the leadership of Alfonso VI in al-Zallaqavii (Sagrajas) on October 23, 1086 and returned to Morocco, but the latter continued to threaten the Muslims and in 1090 the Sultan Yusuf Ibn Tashfin crossed again the strait and projected there the strength of the Almoravid empire by conquering, this time, al-Andalus and adding it to his empire. Unhappy with this change of heart and policy on the part of the Almoravids, the Muslim kinglets reversed their alliances. In reaction to this suicidal move, the Almoravids took both al-Mu’tamid and Abd Allah of Grenada in exile, in the environs of Marrakesh.

The Almoravid empire
The Almoravid empire

Without the strong action of the Almoravids in Spain, al-Andalus would have fallen to the Christians earlier and history of Islam would have been different today, in that part of Europe.

The subsequent dynasty, the Almohads (1121-1266) lasted longer and held control of Muslim Spain until Muhammad III known as al-Nasser (1199-1214) was defeated by a coalition of Christian kingdoms of Castille, Navarre, Aragon and Portugal, at Las Navas de Tolosa in the Sierra Morena, in 1212. As a result, many taifas fell to the Catholics and Islam remained in very few dominions such as Grenada, until 1492, the time of the final episode of the Reconquista.

Very much like the Almoravids, the Almohads were purists in religious practice, with the difference that the Almohads were intolerant to Jews in Morocco and to, a lesser extent, in Muslim Spain, forcing them to convert to Islam, live under strict dhimmi status or leave their dominions altogether.

As a result of this intolerance, brilliant Jewish intellectuals, such as the philosopher and man of religion Ibn Maymoun, known in the West as Moses Maimonides (1135-1204),viii who was a polymath, revered by both Jews and Muslims for his religious writings, especially his opus The Guide of the Perplexed, written in both Hebrew and Arabic as: dalil al Ha’irin.ix Maimonides was influenced by and influenced several Arab great thinkers and scientists such as: Avicenna, Averroes and al-Farabi.

Because of his fear for his life and that of his family, he went into exile in Fostat in Egypt, that was a more welcoming environment.

At the difference of the mightier Almohads, the Berber Marinids (1244-1465) were more tolerant of other faiths and cultures and opened their empire to people from different religions and cultures.

The Wattasid Dynasty (1472-1554), on the other hand, did not last very long, but saw the influx of migrants from Muslim Spain, both the Jewsx that were kicked out of the country after the fall of the last Muslim emirate of Grenada in 1492 and, of course, the Moors.

The Sephardic Jews were welcomed in Morocco. They were to be known as the megorashimxi (the kicked out Jews), as opposed to the local Jews, the toshavim that migrated to Morocco after the destruction of the Second Temple of Jerusalem by the Romans, in 70 AD. The megorashim settled in the capital Fez, in Tetouan and Marrakesh and in coastal towns like Mogador, Rabat, Salé, El Jadida, Azemmour and Tangier, where they served as interpreters to the invading Spanish and Portuguese powers, as well as, commercial agents tujjar as-sultan and advisors. Others, strong with their experience in politics and statecraft, served as ministers of the sultan, ambassadors or his private advisors or even as his personal physicians.

The foreign policy of the Amazigh dynasties centered around the following concepts :

Assistance to Muslim brethren

The Amazigh dynasties, especially the mighty Amoravids and Almohads, because of their dogmatic belief and purist Islamic faith, crossed several times the Strait of Gibraltar to help Muslim Taifas and check the advance of Christians. Such a move was not only motivated by Islamic brotherhood, but, also, by some sort of a melange of Amazigh and Arab tribal solidarity, known among the Amazigh as:

«Me and my brother against my cousin»
«Me and my brother and my cousin against outsiders »

Or in tribal Arabic philosophy as:

« insur akhaka daliman aw madluman »
(Be on the side of your brother whether he is right or wrong)

However in Muslim faith, assistance to Muslims in danger is a religious obligation on the sultan, commonly known as nusrat al-muslim (assistance to a Muslim) that calls for Jihad in dar l-kufr (the Land of the infidels).

Ancient map of the Empire of Morocco
Ancient map of the Empire of Morocco
The stabilization and the expansion of the Muslim state

The Amazigh Muslim empire expanded on a north to south axis from Spain all the way to Senegal River and on a west to east axis from the Atlantic shore to Tripoli.

The Amazigh added new territories to the Muslim Caliphate by the way of foutouhat «conquests» in West Africa where the empire of Ghana was defeated by the Amazigh and added to dar al-Islam.

The Sharifian Dynasties (1549-Present day)

The Sharifians dynasties of Saadians (1554-1660) and the Alaouites (1660-present) claimed descent directly from the prophet Muhammad and, as a result, they earned the title of Sharifian meaning «holy» and they were both feared and respected by the population.

During the Saadian dynasty, Morocco experienced tremendous prosperity, especially during the era of Ahmed al-Mansour (1579-1603) to whom the historians added the epithet dahbi, meaning the «golden» because the Moroccan empire experienced a golden era, characterized by stability and prosperity because of all the riches (gold) brought from Africa.

The country developed agriculture, especially sugarcane and exported sugar to England and wheat, barley and maize to France. It, also, increased caravan trade with Africa and benefited from it a lot. Because of the wealth and prosperity of the Saadian empire, art and architecture flourished in the forms of music, dress, architecture and etiquette.

Moulay Ali Sherif, Sultan of Tafilalt (1631-1636) and founder of the present Alaouite dynasty
Moulay Ali Sherif, Sultan of Tafilalt (1631-1636) and founder of the present Alaouite dynasty

However, soon, the power of the Saadians waned because of internal fighting, palace intrigue and corruption of the ruling elite and were, as such, dethroned by the Alouites who brought religious purism to politicsxii and the concept of baraka «divine grace». Moulay Ali Sherif, who started the Alouite dynasty not only claimed descent from the Prophet shjarah al-muhammadiya (genealogical family tree tracing its origin to the prophet Muhammad), but, also, his divine blessing.

The dynasty, then and now, owes its existence and longevity to two important factors: firstly, religious conservatism doubled by cautious openness to beneficial change and tremendous flexibility in state affairs management characterized by some form of power-sharing through co-optation and power control through coercion.

So, the secret of the survival of the Alouite dynasty in adverse situations through history is their indefectible allegiance to religious conservatism without the rejection of openness and modernization and the nimble use of co-optation and coercion as political tools and the ability to change with the change.

During the reign of the Saadians and the Alouites, prior to the establishment of the French Protectorate, The Moroccan state projected an image of strength and influence, worldwide, through the following actions:

Jihad al Bahr «Jihad at Sea»

Jihad at Sea, was the result of the expulsion of the Moors and the Jews from Spain and later on the Moriscos, many of which settled in the port city of Salé and founded the «Republic of Bouregreg» known in western literature as the «Sallee Rovers» or «Sallee Corsairs».xiii

These pirates, who, had the blessing of the sultan during the 17th century, hijacked British merchant ships in the Atlantic Ocean, brought them to Salé and sold the crew as slaves in the city markets and demanded ransoms for the captain and his team and the notables on the ship. Many British blue-blooded citizens spent years in Salé prisons while awaiting for the British crown to buy them back. The Salé corsaires’ ships went as far as Ireland in their sea-roving activities. Under the pressure of British and European powers, the Alaouite sultan Moulay Slimane (1792-1822)xiv put an end to this piracy, once for all, during his reign.xv

Strengthening of Moroccan imperial image: Recognition of the young American republic

Treaty of Marrakesh
Treaty of Marrakesh

In 1777, Moroccan Sultan Sidi Mohammed III wrote to George Washington, officially recognizing the independence of the United States and offering a Treaty of Peace and Friendship to his young nation.xvi The treaty was ratified by the US Congress in 1787 and remains unbroken, till today. The very same treaty was renegotiated in 1836.

Tangier is the seat of the oldest American diplomatic mission in the world, known as «The American Legation» and is, nowadays, a museum celebrating, in its activities, more than two centuries of solid and unfailing friendship. During WW II, this mission served as a listening room (intelligence gathering) for the Anglo-American military mission known as «Operation Torch» in November 8, 1942, prior to the Invasion of Normandy (D-Day) on June 6, 1944 and the onslaught on the Third Reich in Europe.

Maintaining Moroccan independence

Sultan Sidi Mohammed Ben Abdellah (Mohammed III) 1757-1790 : the architect of modern Moroccan diplomacy based on openness and tolerance
Sultan Sidi Mohammed Ben Abdellah (Mohammed III) 1757-1790 : the architect of modern Moroccan diplomacy based on openness and tolerance

In the 18th and 19th centuries, Morocco tried to maintain its independence in the light of the colonial greed and desire to possess other dominions, expressed by the Ottoman Empire and European colonial powers.

Morocco maintained a diplomatic presence in the Court of St. Jamesxvii in London and in Paris. It had to keep a high profile, on the international scene, because any form of weakness would spur colonial powers for invasion and conquest, especially after Algeria was colonized by the French in 1830, as a result of the fly whisk incident with the Ottomans.

However, Morocco in the light of its Islamic solidarity with the Algerian Emir Abdelkader, fighting a Jihad war against the French, incurred the wrath of the French and leading to the Franco-Moroccan War at Isly near Oujda in 1844 ending in the defeat of Morocco and the end of the myth of the invulnerability of its mighty army. This was followed by another defeat in Tetouan in the war against Spain, in 1959-1860.

Trade with Europe for the sake of friendship and peace

It is a well-known fact throughout Moroccan history that the sultans used the Moroccan Jews for two important inter-related missions: trade and diplomacy. Jews, as early as the Idrissid dynasty in the 9th century, had a tremendous flair for business with foreign nations and the art of diplomacy, and they have certainly served the sultans since, in spite of their demeaning dhimmi status inside Morocco. They became known as tujjar as-sultan «The Merchants of the Sultan»xviii and were always given a special status and, indeed, they played a major role in maintaining the independence of Morocco.

In 1912, Morocco came under French and Spanish colonialism, which was called a protectorate that encouraged indirect control through the religious-political institution of the sultanship, which was 13 centuries old and both loved and feared by the populace.

Moroccan Foreign Diplomacy Under The Three Kings

A banknote celebrating the post-independence Moroccan monarchs makers of modern Morocco
A banknote celebrating the post-independence Moroccan monarchs makers of modern Morocco

King Mohammed V (1927-1961), King Hassan II (1961-1999) and King Mohammed VI (1999-present), all maintained, through almost a century, a foreign policy philosophy making of Morocco a friendly state to the whole of the world: close to the West and sharing with it the values of freedom and democracy, close to the Arab-Islamic world because of the linguistic and religious substratum and anchored to Africa as a result of geography and shared values of religion and trade benefits.

Morocco today, because of its moderation, openness and international responsibility has navigated safely through the Arab Spring tempest, the Radical Islamic Revival sandstorm and the awesome globalization tsunami. Many people, see Morocco as a model to the Muslim world and as an example to follow by developing counties.xix

Today, the Moroccan foreign policy centers around the following fields:

Alliance with America

Since independence in 1956, Moroccan-American relations have gone crescendo and are today exemplary in spite of the on and off minor hiccups. Morocco has a very active military cooperation with the US, as such, war games are conducted by the armies of the two countries every year (African Lion). America has indirectly included Morocco within the NATO as a non-member ally. America is, also, very active in the development of Morocco through ongoing beneficial programs of USAID. Peace Corps has been present in Morocco since 1962 and has contributed to the development of Morocco and an active cultural dialogue between the two nations and MACECE is an important determinant in cultural exchange and cross-cultural communication. Morocco and America are linked by an ambitious trade agreement : the Free Trade Agreement signed in 2004.xx

Cooperation with Europe

Europe is only 15 kilometers away from Morocco, and, in a word, Morocco is its under belly especially in what concerns security. Cooperation with France, Spain, Portugal, Britain, Germany, etc. is very vital for the Moroccan economy. When King Hassan was preparing his son crown prince Sidi Mohammed (actual King Mohammed VI) for the job of a monarch, he instructed him to do his doctorate on the cooperation with the European Union.

Today, the EU has a big stake in the Moroccan economy with France and Spain, in the forefront. Besides the economy, Morocco with its active and well-trained intelligence community is rendering many services to Europe in its fight against terrorism and religious radicalism. As to what concerns clandestine immigration, Morocco gladly serves as a gendarme for Europe, sometimes even against its own interests.

Morocco, model moderate Muslim country

Hassan II Mosque in Casablanca
Hassan II Mosque in Casablanca

Morocco is definitely an Arab-Muslim country, but very moderate and very open on the rest of the world. xxi

The Monarchy has served for 13 centuries as the symbol of stability by assuming both a temporal role (executive monarchy) and a religious mantle: imarat al-mu’minin (commandership of the faithful).xxii Morocco has sailed successfully throughxxiii the Arab Spring turmoil because back in 1996, Hassan II launched a very important program for incremental democracy and power-sharing and his successor has maintained this progressive devolution of power.xxiv

Positive role in the Arab Israeli conflict

Morocco, because of its millennial relations with Jewry, has developed an understanding for Jewish culture and religion and as such has served successfully in pre-Oslo negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis, in bringing their views close to each other. Morocco still continues to play the role of mediator in the on-going conflict.

Development of Africa

Since he assumed power in 1999, King Mohammed VI has been very active in the economic development of Africa. He is all the time visiting personally African nations offering help and launching with them joint win-win economic programs, that will certainly help these countries develop by having access to Moroccan capital as well as know-how and expertise. Today, Maroc Telecom, the major banks and insurance companies, building holdings, etc., are very present in all Africa.xxv Besides, Moroccan universities and higher education institutions welcome thousands of African students, many of whom hold Moroccan scholarships.

Peace-keeping efforts worldwide

Moroccan blue helmetsxxvi are in several parts of the world serving under the banner of the UN to keep peace and give hope to embattled populations. Moroccan army is also present in several Gulf states helping with security and has recently joined the Saudi-led Arab coalition to bring peace and stability to Yemen.

Migration policy

Many African migrants came to Morocco from Africa with the hope to go Europe, but have failed in their efforts so they found themselves stuck in Morocco with no future prospects and no will to return to their poverty-stricken countries of origin. In view of this human tragedy, Morocco voluntarily greeted the migrants an gave them official residence permits, which will allow them to get work for themselves and education for their children besides other social benefits. To date, Morocco is the only Arab country that has a clear migration policy.xxvii

Sahara conflict

Location of Western Sahara. Source: Wikipedia Commons.
Location of Western Sahara. Source: Wikipedia Commons.

Morocco took control of the Western Sahara in 1975, after Spain vacated this territory on the grounds that the former has religious and political links with the population that was always part of the country prior to dismembering the Moroccan empire by European colonial powers. On the other hand, the Front Polisario claiming to represent the Sahrawi population and armed and funded by Algeria wants Independence. Since the beginning of this millennium Morocco has offered a large autonomy to the territory and the UN is still trying to bring the two sides close together for a negotiated settlement. However, Morocco has developed the small towns and villages of the territory into bustling modern cities with all needed amenities and creature comforts.xxviii

You can follow Mohamed Chtatou on Twitter : @Ayurinu

Endnotes:
i. https://www.temehu.com/imazighen/berbers.htm

ii. Shoshenq I (Shishenk I) ; Berber Pharoah, founder of the Egyptian 22nd dynasty (945-924 BC). His daughter was married to King Solomon, who built a special palace for her.

iii. http://www.ircam.ma/doc/revueasing/mohamed_chtatou_asinag2fr.pdf

iv. The following publications could be consulted for further information on Phoenician, Cartiginian and Roman presence as well as other civilizations in North Africa:
1- The Cambridge history of Africa – By J. D. Fage, Roland Anthony Oliver, A. D. Roberts.
2- Africa in the Iron Age, c500 B.C. to A.D. 1400 By Roland Anthony Oliver, Brian M. Fagan.
3- The fall of the Roman Empire By Peter J. Heather.

v. The following publications could be consulted for further information on the history of Morocco :
1- A Traveller’s History of North Africa, Barnaby Rogerson (available on Amazon).
2- Rome in Africa, Susan Ranen (available on Amazon).
3- The Berbers:The People of North Africa, Michael Brett and Elizabeth Fentress (available on Amazon).
4- The North African Stones Speak, Paul MacKendrick (available on Amazon).

vi. https://www.britannica.com/topic/taifa

vii. It was named al-Zallaqa in Arabic «slippery ground » because the ground was so slippery as a result of the blood shed during the battle.

viii. https://www.britannica.com/biography/Moses-Maimonides

ix. https://www.academia.edu/9650577/The_Chronicles_of_the_Sephardic_Jews_in_Spain_Europe_and_in_Morocco_after_1492

x. http://www.academia.edu/9650577/The_Chronicles_of_the_Sephardic_Jews_in_Spain_Europe_and_in_Morocco_after_1492

xi. https://books.google.co.ma/books?id=sgS1qqkVL0kC&pg=PA46&lpg=PA46&dq=megorashim&source=bl&ots=grOWyrAnZz&sig=8bmqdeXjsgqX81LTWVrekjWSSi4&hl=fr&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwipovfy_t7YAhXEvBQKHbQZD28Q6AEIRDAE#v=onepage&q=megorashim&f=false

xii. Cf. the theory of the Amazigh founding father of sociology, historiography and demography Ibn Khaldun (1322-1406) in his opus The Muqaddimah (known in the West as Prolegomena) written in 1377, in which he analyzed the growth and decline of empires due to corruption, intrigue and jockeying for power (Cyclical Theory of Empires) and recorded an early view of universal history.

xiii. http://oxfordindex.oup.com/view/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803100438208

xiv. Cf. El Mansour, Mohammed. Morocco in the Reign of Mawley Sulayman. Wisbech: Middle East & North African Studies Press, 1990.

xv. https://www.academia.edu/11157422/UN_APERCU_HISTORIQUE_DES_RELATIONS_ENTRE_LE_ROYAUME_DU_MAROC_ET_LE_ROYAUME_UNI

xvi. https://history.state.gov/countries/morocco

xvii. Ibid

xviii. Cf.Schroeter, Daniel. Merchants of Essaouira: Urban Society and Imperialism In southwestern Morocco, 1844-1886. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988.
—. The Sultan’s Jew: Morocco and the Sephardi World. Stanford studies in Jewish history and culture. Stanford, Calif: Stanford University Press, 2002.

xix. https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4899/morocco-model-for-islam

xx. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=13&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjMzIDXjN_YAhWEvhQKHVtqDLY4ChAWCDMwAg&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.worldaffairsjournal.org%2Fblog%2Fmichael-j-totten%2Fwhat-real-alliance-looks&usg=AOvVaw2ZFjoVLoEgKeABFoc_RbEH

xxi. http://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2013/08/101606/coexistence-of-religions-and-cultures-in-morocco/

xxii. http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4899/morocco-model-for-islam

xxiii. http://www.academia.edu/10090735/Morocco_riding_Arab_jealousy_storms_successfully

xxiv. Cf. The Constitution of the Kingdom of Morocco of 2011.

xxv. https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2017/02/207675/king-mohammed-vi-takes-africa-storm/

xxvi. http://medafricatimes.com/5561-ivory-coast-over-700-moroccan-blue-helmets-awarded-un-medal.html

xxvii. https://www.migrationpolicy.org/country-resource/morocco

xxviii. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjOgp_8kN_YAhXBvRQKHXiiDXcQFghFMAM&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Fwestern-sahara-morocco-algeria-polisario-front-435170&usg=AOvVaw0DigWInXcZB86421K4eSJF


Modi’s Embrace Of Netanyahu Doesn’t Augur Well For Muslim Middle East – OpEd

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In a much hyped visit, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu landed in India for a five day official visit in January 14, 2018 with a large entourage of professionals and businessmen. The two countries agreed to enhance and deepen bilateral cooperation in innovation, business and trade, space, homeland security and cyber, higher education and research, science and technology, tourism and culture. However, strategic complexities emanating from divergent interests of Israel and Muslim countries in the region make establishment of congenial relations with all these states, if not impossible, a difficult affair. Thus, in this context India’s open and strategic embrace of Israel will affect its ties with Muslim states within and beyond Middle East for a variety of reasons.

Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between India and Israel in 1992, India has seemingly struggled to maintain a difficult balance between Israel and Arab or the Muslim Middle East. For the past 25 years, India has generally conducted its Israel policy with little fanfare and with careful attention to the sensitivities of Palestinians and their international backers. But with right-wing Modi and Netanyahu in power in India and Israel respectively, an apparent shift can be witnessed in India’s Israel policy.

This shift has been indicated by the growing bonhomie between India and Israel. Last year in July Modi became the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Israel in 25 years. But India’s ties with Israel come at a huge cost of alienating and distancing other major powers in the region, some being major partners.

Iran is one of the major Muslim countries in the region having strategic rewards for India. Iran hosts Chahbahar port, built with the cooperation and financial assistance of India. Through this port India wants to connect with the energy rich Central Asia via Afghanistan.Iran’s unique geo-strategic location is India’s most logical conduit for projecting power into Central Asia and land-locked Afghanistan. India is eager to expand its power and influence over the smaller states in its near abroad. Given the mutual enmity of Israel and Iran, any move Modi makes in a bid to expand ties with Israel will ultimately disillusion Iran leading it to further cementing its ties with Pakistan, to the chagrin of India.

Indeed, Iran is clearly wary of Indo-Israel defense cooperation. Iran will never be happy to see Indian defense and security cooperation resulting in the strength of its arch nemesis .i.e. Israel.In addition, India’s strategic partnership with the US along with Israel renders it a less reliable partner for Iran owing to the ongoing undeclared war between Iran and US-Israel nexus. The induction of India in this nexus has long been in the making but now India has no qualms about publicizing this.

Notwithstanding their own state-terrorism against Kashmiris and Palestinians, Indo-Israeli security cooperation is also based on a shared perception of dangers from terrorism and its purveyors. Considering the US rhetoric against Iran for its alleged sponsoring of terrorism and India’s strategic partnership with the US, India would be compelled to join the US bandwagon against so called Islamic terrorism of Iran thereby further weakening the prospect of balanced ties.

Notwithstanding the conflicts and differences among Muslim countries in the Middle East, Palestine remains the unifying force. The way Muslim countries rejected and denounced Donald Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital is a recent example of solidarity in the face of injustice. Modi’s attempts to delink Palestine from Indian approach to Israel is tantamount to accepting Israel’s brutal treatment and colonization of Palestinian against whichIndia’s founding father Ghandi had famously said “Palestine belongs to the Arabs in the same sense that England belongs to the English or France to the French. It is wrong and inhuman to impose the Jews on the Arabs. What is going on in Palestine today cannot be justified by any moral code of conduct….”

It is widely felt that India’s ties with Palestine are symbolic and without substance. India’s recent vote in favor of Israel against the US move to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital is not driven by Ghandi’s vision rather by mundane considerations of securing Muslim votes in India’s internal politics. In a response to All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) President M Badruddin Ajmal for thanking Sushma Suwaraj on Palestine vote, the audacious external Minister who doesn’t hesitate to defend India’s brutal use of force against Kashmiris shamelessly demanded votes in return.

This realization may lead the backers of Palestine to downgrade their relations with India if a situation so arises that a perceived inaction on part of these Muslim countries in the face of brutal repression of Palestinians and Kashmiris by the Indo-Israel nexus risks their credibility. This is the last thing to be desired by two heavy weights i.e. Saudi Arabia and Iran. Indo-Israel growing bonhomie is a serious concern for any country seeking the leadership of Muslim Middle East and reputation in the Muslim.Thus, India’s strategic ties with Israel will seriously affect its interests in the oil rich Arab world. The cost of such an eventuality is immense for India which heavily dependents on the oil rich Muslim states for energy requirements.

In conclusion, as India seeks to cement its strategic relations with Israel and the US it will be tempted to take sides. It will also come under pressure to take decisions which otherwise it would not have taken. To secure its long-term interests, India will not resist such temptations and pressure, and will be sucked into the rivalries in the region. India has made such mistakes in the past as well such as giving in to the American pressure on the issue of Iran’s nuclear technology.

*Nisar Ahmed Khan is a Research Affiliate at Strategic Vision Institute (SVI)

Turkey’s Erdogan Vows To Clear ‘Terrorists’ From Syrian Border

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By Menekse Tokyay

The Turkish president promised on Sunday to clear the entire Syrian border of “terrorists” after Ankara urged Washington to withdraw its military from a Kurdish-held town.

The call followed new commitments from the US to cease supplying weapons to the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a Syrian Kurdish militia that Turkey has been fighting in northern Syria for more than a week.

As Turkish troops intensified the Olive Branch operation in Afrin on Sunday, Turkey continued to warn that the offensive would move eastwards to Manbij, where hundreds of US troops are based.

“The terrorists in Afrin and Manbij cannot run from the painful end that awaits them,” Recep Tayyip Erdogan told members of his party in northern Turkey.

Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Saturday it was “compulsory for the US to withdraw from Manbij as soon as possible.”

Turkey says an offensive against Manbij, about 100 km from the current operation, is an extension of its plan to remove what it describes as a terror threat along its border with Syria.

But if it goes ahead, the offensive would move the Turkish operation into a new level of military and diplomatic complexity, pulling in different groups and parties in the area.

H.R. McMaster, national security adviser to US President Donald Trump, spoke with Erdogan’s chief foreign policy adviser on Saturday to attempt to rebuild broken trust between the two countries.

According to Turkish press reports, McMaster repeated that weapons will no longer be delivered to the YPG. The same commitment was given many times to Ankara in recent months by both Trump and his Defense Secretary James Mattis.

Manbij is located 30 km west of the Euphrates and was captured from Daesh by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in 2016. The SDF are backed by the US and dominated by the YPG.

The town, which has a mixed ethnic population including Arabs and Kurds, has been one of the main fronts for the anti-Daesh coalition’s ground war. Following its liberation, the Pentagon preferred that the YPG remained in the town to guard it against a potential Daesh counter attack.

But Ankara is concerned that the Syrian Kurdish militias want to establish a corridor to the Mediterranean coast by linking the regions they administer.

Turkey has called for the YPG to be withdrawn from Manbij and has been enraged by the US support for the group. The militia is an offshoot of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is seen by Ankara and many Western countries as a terror group. The US and Turkey are suppose to be allies through their memberships of NATO.

“It is unthinkable for a strategic ally to arm and train what its decades long strong ally consider to be a terrorist organization,” Mehmet Ogutcu, a former diplomat and chairman of the Bosphorus Energy Club, told Arab News.

He said Turkey’s request for the US to withdraw from Manbij is to avoid completely rupturing ties between the two countries.

Dr. Eray Gucluer, a terror expert from Altinbas University in Istanbul and at the think tank ASAM, said: “The US is currently losing power and prestige in the region, and it wouldn’t afford keeping its soldiers in Manbij if Turkey conducts an operation.”

Ali Semin, a Middle East expert at Istanbul-based think-tank BILGESAM, thinks Turkey would prefer to resolve the Manbij situation through agreement with the US.

“There will probably be no military offensive or Turkey may use Free Syrian Army fighters to avoid any direct clash with the US if the American soldiers remain there. It was the same case when Turkey agreed with Russia before the operation to Afrin as Russian troops were deployed in the region,” he told Arab News.

As concern grows over Manbij, fighting ramped up in Afrin on Sunday, with Turkish troops and allied Syrian fighters capturing a strategic hill.

AP reported that constant shelling and clashes could be heard at the Turkish border town Kilis as Turkish aircraft whizzed above and plumes of smoke rose in the distance.

The Turkish forces have been trying to capture Bursayah hill since the offensive started on Jan. 20.

The Turkish military said its soldiers and allied Syrian opposition fighters captured the hill, assisted by airstrikes, attack helicopters, armed drones and howitzers.

“In its previous cross-border operation, Turkey’s aim was to secure a safe zone to resettle the Syrians who fled war in their country, but this time Turkey wants to clear these zones completely from all kinds of terror threat until the border with Iraq,” Semin said.

“Manbij bears a strategic importance for Kurdish militia to reach the Mediterranean shores. It is exactly the establishment of such a YPG-controlled ‘terror corridor’ that Ankara wants to block along its border.”

Egypt’s Revolution: Seven Years In Questions Mount – OpEd

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By Abdellatif El-Menawy*

Great debate surrounds the events that took place in Egypt on Jan. 25, 2011, and June 30, 2013. I will not go into the full controversy, but I would like to examine some of the crucial points and review some articles I have read to reveal the truth as I see it.

What Egypt witnessed in January 2011 was the rejection of the stagnation that had occurred because of the state’s refusal to consider change because it considered that to be synonymous with chaos and the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year regime.

The situation was complicated further because of the general feeling that, even if Mubarak stepped down, the status quo would continue as his son would become his successor.

The fact that many Egyptian people saw no hope for real change even after Mubarak’s departure is what created the atmosphere for the first outbreak of angry expression.

Regardless of whether the groups of young people who led that first expression were trained and prepared for such a day or not, the truth is that the atmosphere was ready.

Their demands had a low ceiling, but the regime was clearly unaware of the potential for protests, and clearly unprepared, which was a main cause of the protests’ consequences.

But what about the Muslim Brotherhood?

It is well-known that the Muslim Brotherhood, in an act of political opportunism, announced that they would not participate in the demonstrations of Jan. 25 but went back on their word when they discovered the size of the demonstrations, deciding they would lose credibility if they did not declare their participation, despite their prior arrangement with state security. One party to that arrangement was Mohamed Morsi, a former member of the Parliament at the time.

So, why did the Brotherhood rush into the post-Jan. 25 demonstrations? The answer lies in the absence of intelligence in the political management of events at the time. The Interior Ministry issued a statement at midnight in which it put the blame entirely on the Brotherhood, although it was common knowledge that they participated only in the last moments of Jan. 25. But it seems that the leadership of the Interior Ministry at the time thought it was an opportunity to discredit the Brotherhood by publicly accusing them of being responsible for the events of the day.

However, that accusation simply forced the Brotherhood into a position where they had to confront the regime. Thus, from Jan. 26 onward, members of the group infiltrated Egypt.

The leadership of the international organization mobilized and declared zero hour for the implementation of their plan. The development of events in Egypt helped determine the time to make their move. And they made it with a great deal of opportunism, exploiting the mistakes of the regime, and most importantly exploiting some opportunists in the youth movements; manipulating the innocence of many young Egyptians who came out to express their desire for change.

It was significant that the Brotherhood did not employ any religious slogans at the time, but it dominated the movement in different squares. All this was done with the support and direct supervision of the leadership of a state that claimed to be Egypt’s sister country, Qatar, along with the blessing of America to implement its new strategy in the region.

By Jan. 28, the Brotherhood was in full control of the uprising, and continued to exploit the youth. Using its knowledge of counter-security measures, it began to implement its task of burning Egypt, taking advantage of people’s overwhelming anger, which prevented many from realizing what it was actually doing.

So many were deceived by what was happening, and the problem is that they remained deceived for a long time. Even those who began to guess what was going on had no choice but to continue the process of destroying the state beyond the toppling of the regime.

Once they realized what they had done, some tried to repent and turn back, after they had pushed their country into the unknown. They woke up and joined the true Egyptian revolution in order to restore Egypt.

That set the scene for June 30, 2013, which I will address in my next column.

• Abdellatif El-Menawy is a critically acclaimed multimedia journalist, writer and columnist who has covered war zones and conflicts worldwide. Twitter: @ALMenawy

Robert Reich: Trump’s America Is Open To Global Capital, Not People – OpEd

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Trump to global CEOs and financiers in Davos, Switzerland: “America is open for business.” We’re now a great place for you to make money. We’ve slashed taxes and regulations so you can make a bundle here.

Trump to ambitious young immigrants around the world, including those brought here as children: America is closed. We don’t want you. Forget that poem affixed to the Statue of Liberty about bringing us your poor yearning to breathe free. Don’t even try.

In Trump’s America, global capital is welcome, people aren’t.

Well, I have news for the so-called businessman. America was built by ambitious people from all over the world, not by global capital.

Global capital wants just one thing: A high return on its investment.

Global capital has no obligation to any country or community. If there’s another place around the world where taxes are lower and regulations laxer, global capital will move there at the speed of an electronic blip.

Global capital doesn’t care how it gets a high return. If it can get it by slashing wages, outsourcing to contract workers, polluting air and water, defrauding investors, or destroying communities, it will.

People are different. Once they’ve rooted somewhere, they generally stay put. They develop webs of connections and loyalties.

If they’re ambitious – and, let’s face it, the one characteristic that almost all immigrants to America have shared for more than two centuries is ambition – they develop skills, educate their kids, and contribute to their communities and their nation.

My great grandfather arrived in America from Ukraine. He was nineteen years old and penniless. What brought him here was his ambition. He built a business. He started a family.

Then he invited his brothers and sisters from Ukraine to join him. He put them up in his home and gave them some of his savings to start their own lives as Americans.

You may call it “chain migration,” Mr. Trump, but we used to call it “family reunification.” We believed it wasn’t just humane to allow members from abroad to join their loved ones here, but also good for the America. It made the nation stronger and more prosperous.

By the way, Mr. Trump, global capital doesn’t create jobs. Jobs are created when customers want more goods and services. Nobody invests in a business unless they expect consumers to buy what that business will produce. Those consumers include immigrants.

Consumers are also workers. The more productive they are and the better they’re paid, the more goods and services they buy – creating a virtuous circle of higher wages and more jobs.

They become more productive and better paid when they have access to good schools and universities, good health care, and well-maintained transportation systems linking them together.

This combination – people rooted in families and communities, supplemented by ambitious young immigrants, all aided by good education and infrastructure – made America the economic powerhouse it is today.

Along the way, regulations proved to be necessary guardrails. We protected the environment, prevented fraud, and tried to stop financial entities from gambling away everyone’s savings, because we came to see that capitalism without such guardrails is a mudslide.

We didn’t accomplish what we’ve achieved by cutting taxes and slashing regulations so global investors could make more money in America, while preventing ambitious immigrants from coming to our shores.

We raised taxes – especially on big corporations and wealthy individuals – in order to finance good schools, public universities, and infrastructure. We regulated business. And we welcomed immigrants and reunited families.

Global capital came our way not because we were a cheap place to do business but because we were fabulously productive and innovative place to do business.

Now Trump and his rich backers want to undo all this. No one should be surprised. When they look at the economy they only see money. They’ve made lots of it.

But the real economy is people. America should be open to ambitious people even if they’re dirt poor, like my great grandfather. It should also be open to their relations, whose family members here will give them a start.

It should invest in people, as it once did.

America didn’t become great by global capital seeking higher returns but by people from all over world seeking better lives. And global capital won’t make it great again.

India: State’s Data Debunks Myth About Christian Conversions

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People converting to Christianity remains nearly equal to the number of Christians leaving the religion in India’s western Maharashtra state, says government figures which negates claims that missioners attract thousands to Christianity.

In the past 43 months, 1,683 people have opted to change their religion in the state, said official figures. They include 1,166 Hindus, 263 Muslims, 165 Christians, 53 Buddhists, 16 Sikhs, nine Jains, four Neo-Buddhists and 11 others.

Of these 165 Christians, 100 became Hindus, 47 took up Islam, 11 became Buddhists, five adopted Jainism and two became followers of Sikhism.

In contrast, during the same period only 173 people joined to become Christians. While 138 Hindus joined Christian religion, 21 came from Islam and 14 from Buddhism and Jainism.

In April last year state legislative house discussed a plan to make a law restricting conversions, which media reports said was aimed at curbing conversion of Hindus by Christian missioners.

The state is yet to make such a law but similar laws exist in seven other states which criminalizes changing religion without informing government authorities.

Christians leaders say these laws target missionary activities as their work in the field of education and health care in the villages could be interpreted as “fraud, force or allurement.”

Contrary to impressions, a majority of Hindus in the state who chose to change their religion have adopted Islam, just as majority of Muslims preferred to convert to Hinduism, showed the data.

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