By Felix K. Chang*

(FPRI) — Russian behavior has long influenced how safe Poles feel. Centuries of fending off or being subjugated by Russia (or, its 20th-century incarnation, the Soviet Union) have left them with an abiding mistrust of their big and often unfriendly eastern neighbor. Needless to say, Russia’s recent aggressiveness in Eastern Europe has put many Poles on edge. Adding to their unease have been worries over the reliability of Poland’s principal security partners: NATO and the United States. At times, both have appeared either slow or unprepared to counter Russia’s actions.

Strategic Differences with Russia

Even without its deep-rooted anxiety over Russia, Poland has good reason to regard its neighbor with suspicion. After all, the two countries have very different aims in Eastern Europe. For generations, Russia has sought to create a sphere of influence over the region and control its ports on the Baltic and Black Seas. To that end, Russia has backed pro-Russian regimes in Belarus and Ukraine, and lately harassed the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania with airspace incursions. In contrast, Poland has viewed westward-looking governments in Eastern Europe as in its national interests. Hence, Poland supported Ukraine after that country’s “Orange Revolution” (which toppled a pro-Russian leader) in 2005 and Belarus’ opposition following a government crackdown on it in 2010.

Unfortunately for Poland, things have not gone its way in the last half decade. Russia successfully annexed Crimea (along with its Black Sea port of Sevastopol), sponsored separatists in eastern Ukraine, and survived Western economic sanctions against it. Russia also bolstered its forces in Kaliningrad, a Russian military stronghold on Poland’s northeast border, with new K-300P Bastion coastal defense missile systems and S-400 air defense systems. Topping it all off, the Russian military conducted large-scale exercises that resembled thinly veiled rehearsals for operations against Poland and the Baltics. The most recent of these exercises took place in September 2017.

Poland’s growing concern over Russia can be seen in the shifting tenor of its official national security strategy papers, particularly after Russia’s military interventions in Georgia and Ukraine. Whereas the papers’ 2003 and 2007 iterations supported the notion that cooperation with Russia was the surest way to ensure Polish security, Poland’s 2014 national security strategy paper declared Russia to be a “challenge” and stressed its need to respect international law and the territorial integrity of its neighbors.[1]

(Un)reliability of NATO and the United States

Meanwhile, Poland has become less confident in NATO and the United States as reliable security partners. A decade ago that was not the case. American commitment to Poland’s security seemed rock solid. As Russia backed away from its conventional and nuclear arms control commitments in Europe during the latter half of President George W. Bush’s administration, the United States suggested stationing interceptor missiles for its Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system, an advanced anti-ballistic missile system, on Polish soil. Despite some popular misgivings, Poland’s leaders welcomed the proposal as a tangible sign of American reliability.

But that changed with the election of President Barack Obama. He hoped to “reset” U.S. relations with Russia on friendlier terms. To remove a source of friction, the United States cancelled the deployment of the GMD system. The unilateral American decision left Polish leaders feeling jilted. As a consolation, the United States offered Poland the less-robust Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense system. But soon after the Obama administration backpedaled on that too, scrapping its original plan to outfit the system with the latest SM-3 missiles.[2] Clearly upset, former Polish President Lech Wałęsa grumbled: “It wasn’t that the [missile] shield was that important, but it’s about the way, the way of treating us.”

In the following years, Poland would also find cause to question NATO’s dependability. In contrast to Russia’s swift and decisive intervention in Ukraine, NATO struggled to form an effective response. Even after its member countries agreed on economic sanctions against Russia, many remained hesitant. NATO again appeared flat-footed after Russia intensified its harassment of NATO’s Baltic members in 2015 and again after it deployed nuclear-capable 9K720 Iskander ballistic missiles to Kaliningrad in 2016. It would take NATO over a year to “enhance” its forward presence in the Baltics with a deterrent force of three multinational battlegroups (essentially reinforced battalions). A fourth battlegroup, formed around a U.S. mechanized infantry battalion, deployed to Poland in mid-2017. By comparison, Russia’s nearby Western Military District alone can muster over 22 armored, airborne, and motorized infantry battalions, along with ten battalions of artillery.

But possibly most worrisome to Poland was its recent realization that much of the critical infrastructure that the Alliance needs to deploy and sustain its frontline forces either fails to stretch far enough eastward or is no longer fully functional. And while Poland can take some comfort in the presence of a U.S.-led battlegroup, it does not fully allay Polish concern over the long-term commitment of the United States, given its continued distractions elsewhere in the world and its growing reluctance to act as the “world’s policeman.”

Greater Self-Reliance

How Poland has reacted to the changes in its strategic environment was evident in its 2017 defense concept white paper. The paper’s tone was strikingly different from those that preceded it. It pointed out Poland’s past “wrong conviction that the risk of an armed conflict in [Eastern] Europe was marginal.”[3] Rather than urging cooperation with Russia, it asserted that Russia is “a threat . . . for Poland and other countries in the region.”[4] The paper also intoned in its opening sentence that “The Polish Armed Forces remain the best guarantor of the security of Polish citizens.”[5]

Poland has much to do before its military can adequately deter Russia. While NATO and the United States remain key parts of Poland’s defense plans, Warsaw has come to realize that it must do more itself. As Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski summed up: “In recent years, we have found out once again that defense of principles and values is sometimes effective only when supported by force—not only moral force, but also by military force.”[6]

About the author:
*Felix K. Chang is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He is also the Chief Strategy Officer of DecisionQ, a predictive analytics company in the national security and healthcare industries. He has worked with a number of digital, consumer services, and renewable energy entrepreneurs for years. He was previously a consultant in Booz Allen Hamilton’s Strategy and Organization practice; among his clients were the U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Department of the Treasury, and other agencies.

Source:
This article was published by FPRI.

Notes:
[1] National Security Strategy of the Republic of Poland (Warsaw: Poland National Security Bureau, 2014), p. 22.

[2] Andrew A. Michta, “Polish Hard Power: Investing in the Military as Europe Cuts Back,” in A Hard Look at Hard Power: Assessing the Defense Capabilities of Key U.S. Allies and Security Partners, ed. Gary J. Schmitt (Carlisle, PA: United States Army War College Press, July 2015), p. 150.

[3] The Defence Concept of the Republic of Poland (Warsaw: Poland Ministry of National Defense, May 2017), p. 23.

[4] The Defence Concept of the Republic of Poland, p.6.

[5] Ibid.

By Gjergj Erebara

Heral Saraci, the public commissioner responsible for overseeing the appeals process in the vetting of judges and prosecutors – a long-awaited reform in Albania – was fired for obstructing his own institution’s work and for illegal hiring practices.

Heral Saraci was sacked on Monday by Albania’s College of Appeals, which found that he had obstructed the the functioning of his institution and had hired staff without due process.

Saraci, who had not yet started his work on appeals resulting from the vetting of judges and prosecutors, had insisted he was not guilty.

Albania launched its much-awaited justice reform last year, which included a complex set of new institutions aimed at clearing the system of inept and corrupt judges and prosecutors, and giving judicial institutions independence from political influence.

Implementation has been slow, however. The vetting commission, which started work last October, has not yet delivered its first verdicts.

(Civil.Ge) — “Visits to Azerbaijan are always special since we enjoy special strategic partnership with the country,” Georgia’s Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili told Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev today.

PM Kvirikashvili, who is paying a one day official visit to Baku, held his first meeting with President Aliyev, with the two leaders discussing bilateral and regional cooperation projects.

In his remarks before the meeting, Prime Minister Kvirikashvili said the Georgian-Azerbaijani economic relations were “on the rise,” stressing that the country topped the 2017 list in terms of its investment volumes and visitor numbers to Georgia.

“The strategic projects that you have mentioned – the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars [railway] project, and the Southern Gas Corridor project, which will then connect with the Trans-Anatolian and the Trans-Adriatic pipelines, are extremely important economically and geostrategically,” Kvirikashvili added.

“Georgia has always been supportive of Azerbaijan’s positions in the international formats, and this is natural, considering our strategic partnership,” the Prime Minister also noted.

On March 12, Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili is scheduled to meet his Azerbaijani counterpart, Prime Minister Artur Rasizade.

By Nike Ching

U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to replace Secretary of State Rex Tillerson with CIA Director Mike Pompeo came as a surprise to the top diplomat.

“The secretary did not speak to the president and is unaware of the reason, but he is grateful for the opportunity to serve,” said Under Secretary of State Steve Goldstein in a statement Tuesday. “The secretary had every intention of staying because of the critical progress made in national security.”

Shortly after releasing that statement, Goldstein was also fired by the White House.

The rapidly announced departures came just hours after Tillerson returned from a weeklong trip to five African nations.

His departure was officially announced by the president on Twitter. “Mike Pompeo, Director of the CIA, will become our new Secretary of State. He will do a fantastic job! Thank you to Rex Tillerson for his service! Gina Haspel will become the new Director of the CIA, and the first woman so chosen. Congratulations to all!”

No imminent indication of firing

In the days leading up to his firing, Tillerson showed no outward signs that his days in the administration were numbered.

A senior administration official told VOA on Tuesday that Tillerson was informed of his ouster last week.

The official, speaking on background, said Tillerson was told by White House Chief of Staff John Kelly last Friday that he was being removed from the Cabinet by the president. The official said Kelly “followed up” with another phone call Saturday.

However, that account contradicts other reporting, which said Kelly never explicitly told Tillerson he was being fired. The Associated Press reported that Kelly warned Tillerson that Trump might tweet something that would concern him, but was not told what the tweet might say.

Tillerson told reporters traveling with him at the time that he did get a late-night phone call, but did not elaborate.

“I got another call at 2:30 [a.m.] that woke me up. I can’t say. And so I was up most of that night. And that was Friday night,” Tillerson later told reporters.

Just two days later, dressed in sneakers and khakis, Tillerson appeared relaxed and enjoyed a tour at Kenya Wildlife Service Genetics and Molecular Forensics Laboratory, chatting with experts working at the lab, as well as prominent conservationist Dr. Richard Leakey.

On Monday, during a rare on-the-record briefing with seven members of the traveling press en route to Cape Verde, Tillerson appeared to be at ease, occasionally smiling while answering questions. Later, at a refueling stop in Cape Verde, he again seemed relaxed, with VOA hearing his signature loud laughter while talking to staff members.

And during a joint press conference with Nigerian Foreign Minister Geoffrey Onyeama in Abuja earlier Monday, his last public event in Africa before Trump’s tweet announcing his replacement, Tillerson appeared fully invested, showing no outward signs that he would soon be leaving his position.

Trump, Tillerson and diplomacy

It’s no secret that Trump and Tillerson did not see eye to eye on several key issues, including how to deal with the nuclear and missile threat from North Korea.

The then-secretary of state was halfway across the world and reportedly asleep when news broke that Trump had accepted North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s invitation for direct talks Thursday, a major diplomatic development that Tillerson was said to be kept out of the loop on.

“I got the call a little before 2:30 [a.m.] on Thursday night about the decision and had a conversation with the president and then I was on the phone the rest of the night,” Tillerson said.

Tillerson canceled his schedule in Nairobi, Kenya, on Saturday because he was under the weather due to sleep deprivation and what he said was “a little stomach bug” as a result of something he ate in Ethiopia.

“I’ve been up most nights on the telephone. I think I had 4 hours of sleep in 72 hours because of a lot of what’s going on,” Tillerson told traveling press on the plane.

A senior White House official, commenting on the timing of Tillerson’s departure Tuesday, explained, “the president wanted to make sure to have his new team in place in advance of the upcoming talks with North Korea and various ongoing trade negotiations.”

VOA’s Steve Herman contributed to this report.

US President Donald Trump’s decision to sack Secretary of State Rex Tillerson may signal hard-line foreign policy shifts on Iran and the Qatar dispute, analysts told Arab News.

The dismissal of Tillerson, and the appointment of Mike Pompeo, the CIA director, as his successor, came after a series of public rifts between the president and his top diplomat over hot-button issues such as North Korea and Russia.

But it was their disagreement over the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, which Trump had pledged to scrap during his election campaign, that the US leader referred to when explaining his decision on Tuesday.

“We got along actually quite well, but we disagreed on things,” Trump told White House reporters.

“When you look at the Iran deal, I think it’s terrible. I guess he thought it was OK. I wanted to either break it or do something and he felt a little bit differently, so we were not really thinking the same.”

Jonathan Cristol, a fellow at the World Policy Institute think tank, said that after Tillerson’s removal, the administration might crack down on Iran and a nuclear deal on which Trump is expected to make his final decision in mid-May.

“This may be the death knell for the Iran deal,” Cristol told Arab News.
“Tillerson was one of the leading voices in the administration for renegotiating the pact. With him gone, and Pompeo moving things to the right, at the very least we can expect harsher language against Tehran.”

Robert Malley, president of the International Crisis Group, echoed this on Twitter, saying: “The writing seems even more clearly on the wall as to the fate of the Iran deal” following the State Department reorganization.

The reshuffle may also signal a shift on US policy on the Qatar crisis. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt cut travel and trade ties with Doha last June, accusing it of supporting terrorism and their arch-rival Iran. Qatar denies the charges.

While Trump accused Doha of funding terrorism at a “very high level,” Tillerson tried to ease tensions by signing an anti-terror financing deal with Qatar the following month and was working on a Camp David rapprochement summit of Gulf leaders in May.

That policy divergence last summer came at the same time that Tillerson was reported to have privately called Trump a “moron” after the US leader suggested a 10-fold increase in the US nuclear arsenal.

Steven Cook, an analyst at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations, said Tillerson’s sacking will be welcomed in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which wanted US support to leverage major policy shifts in Qatar.

“I am guessing that the folks in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh are pretty happy right now. Tillerson was regarded as pro-Qatar,” Cook said.

Cristol agreed, but said that Tillerson was not a lone voice in the administration seeking to maintain stability in the Gulf Cooperation Council.

“US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis will ensure that there are no changes and that the US remains committed to Qatar regardless of what the president tweets,” said Cristol, while attending a conference in Doha.

“It was widely understood that Tillerson did not have good relations with Trump and was on borrowed time, so his actual influence on policy was questionable. While we may see a move to the right, Mattis and the Pentagon may ensure policy is reasonably stable.”

The biggest shakeup of Trump’s cabinet since he took office more than a year ago was announced on Twitter, and came as the administration prepares for key meetings on North Korea and the Middle East.

A senior White House official said Trump asked Tillerson to step down on Friday, but did not want to make the dismissal public while he was on a trip to Africa. Trump’s announcement came only a few hours after Tillerson landed in Washington when the trip was cut short.

The official said Trump works well with Pompeo, a former Republican congressman from Kansas, and wanted him in place before planned talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and trade negotiations.

Trump is also set to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on March 20 at the White House, when the Saudi heir to the throne visits Washington, New York and Boston.

On Monday, White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said the two men would discuss “ways to strengthen ties between the United States and Saudi Arabia, and to advance our common security and economic priorities.”

The New York Post has a blockbuster story today about a New York Times investigation of sexual misconduct in the theater world. Specifically, the Times is asking 10 questions of major non-profit arts organizations about their handling of sexual harassment and assault complaints over the last 20 years.

The newspaper wants the respondents to identify who those individuals are, and the nature of the alleged offense. It also wants to know if senior members of the artistic community, business leaders, or board members were the subject of a complaint. It wants a response by March 30.

This has led to quite a pushback from theater elites, some of whom have accused the Times of an Inquisition. They have sought legal counsel.

What the theater community should do is agree, on one condition: The New York Times must first agree to have theater lawyers investigate Mark Thompson, the CEO of the New York Times Company. In his previous job, as head of the BBC, Thompson claims to have known nothing of the serial rapes committed by Jimmy Savile, many of them with minors, and on the property of the BBC.

As we have previously shown, Thompson’s account is unpersuasive: there is every reason to believe that he lied when he said he knew nothing of Savile’s criminal acts. Now is the time to settle this matter: let the investigators have access to Thompson and all the letters and files attendant to this probe that are kept by the BBC.

US President Donald Trump’s abrupt decision to oust his recalcitrant secretary of state Rex Tillerson with the staunchly pro-Israel and Iranophobic CIA director Mike Pompeo spells trouble for peace in the Middle East and must be interpreted as a hugely negative development.

Citing his difference with Tillerson on the Iran nuclear accord, Trump now has a new man in charge of US diplomacy with a lamentable record in vilifying the nuclear deal and demonizing the Iranian government, much to the pleasure of Iran’s rivals, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

By all indications, Tillerson singularly contributed to the rationalization of US diplomacy under the Trump administration and was from the beginning ‘an odd man out’ competing with the US ambassador to UN, the national security adviser, and Trump’s novice son-in-law put in charge of the Middle East peace process and proving to be an invaluable inside asset for Israel and its expansionist policies.

Transpiring a few days after a Washington visit by the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Tillerson’s firing means Israel’s warmongering designs in Syria and elsewhere are now in full support by the US administration, which has moved the US embassy to Jerusalem despite Tillerson’s stated reservations. Tillerson also stood to the recent Saudi meddling in Lebanon and his state department pressured Turkey on the UN ceasefire resolution, without being seconded by the White House, which essentially means that Tillerson’s departure signifies a potential blow to the peace process in Syria as well.

With Trump due to make a new announcement on the fate of the Iran nuclear deal in mid-May, the road is now largely cleared for a US exit from the deal, with the only dissenting voice within the administration being that of Defense Secretary Mattis, who has stated on record that the accord is in US’s national interest. It now remains to be seen how Mattis can work with Pompeo who holds an opposite view on this matter.

Should the US exit from the deal in May, undoubtedly this will weaken US’s diplomatic hands with North Korea as US’s credibility will take a nose dive and a new level of mistrust of US will ensue in the global diplomatic community. Not only that, new transatlantic rifts with the Europeans will follow and the US will find itself rather isolated.

Therefore, it is far from given that the US will scuttle the Iran nuclear deal as threatened by Trump, although the chances of the deal’s survival has now diminished considerably. It is perfectly possible that Trump has already made up his mind after his latest meeting with Netanyahu and his decision to fire Tillerson was pre-emptive in nature, given the possibility that Tillerson might have tendered his resignation and thus embarrassed Trump.

At the moment, a great deal of facts are unknown to us and we can only conjecture that Tillerson’s departure is part of an ominous new turn toward militarism and interventionism in US’s foreign policy. The doomsday clock might as well turn closer to midnight.

The big jump in the price of energy commodities in January was partially reversed in February with a 0.9 percent drop. This brought the overall inflation rate for the month to 0.2 percent, the same as the core rate in January. Over the last year, the overall CPI has risen by 2.2 percent, while the core rate has risen by 1.8 percent.

However, even this core rate is deceptive since rising rents continue to be an overwhelming factor. Excluding shelter, the core rate is up just 0.9 percent over the last year. There is zero evidence of any acceleration in this rate over the last year.

Housing inflation is, of course, driven primarily by a limited supply of housing. This has a different dynamic than inflation in other sectors. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the near term effect is to reduce construction, possibly making the housing shortage worse and leading to higher inflation in the sector.

Inflation in most items continues to be well under control. Medical care commodity prices have risen by 1.6 percent over the last year. Prescription drugs prices, which are the bulk of this index, fell 0.4 percent in February, the second consecutive monthly decline. Medical care services were flat in February after a 0.6 percent jump in January. They are up 1.8 percent over the last year.

College tuition costs also remain under control. They were unchanged in February and are up 2.0 percent over the last year. Car insurance continues to be a major problem area. The cost rose 1.7 percent in February and is up 9.7 percent over the last year. Since the weight of this index in the overall CPI is 2.4 percent, the inflation in this category along adds almost 0.3 percentage points to the core inflation rate.

Both new and used vehicle prices fell in January, falling 0.5 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively. The latter’s drop follows four consecutive monthly increases, which was likely the result of increased demand due to the destruction of cars by the summer hurricanes. Over the last year, new vehicle prices are down 1.5 percent, while used vehicle prices are down 0.1 percent.

Apparel prices had another large jump in February, rising 1.5 percent after a 1.7 percent rise in January. Apparel prices are always erratic so it is likely that these increases will be reversed, in part or in whole, in coming months. Over the last year, they are up 0.4 percent.

There is nothing in this report to suggest that inflation is accelerating in spite of the low rate of unemployment and the rapid pace of job creation. This raises the question of why the Fed should be looking to raise interest rates when inflation remains well below its target rate.

US President Donald J. Trump spoke Tuesday with Prime Minister Theresa May of the United Kingdom.

According to the White House, the two leaders discussed the United Kingdom’s investigation into the chemical weapon attack on a private citizen and his daughter on British soil.

President Trump stated the United States stands in solidarity with its closest ally and is ready to provide any assistance the United Kingdom requests for its investigation.

President Trump agreed with Prime Minister May that the Government of the Russian Federation must provide unambiguous answers regarding how this chemical weapon, developed in Russia, came to be used in the United Kingdom, the White House said.

The White House added that the two leaders agreed on the need for consequences for those who use these heinous weapons in flagrant violation of international norms.

As you’re probably aware, extreme nationalist and populist voices are coming out of the woodwork all over Europe right now. Those voices are dangerous not only to a unified Europe, but a fiercely non-prejudiced and peaceful Europe. While anything but absent from Europe’s past, these terrible voices are doing all they can to establish and keep themselves in power. Regardless, I don’t think we can lose sight of the efforts being taken to fight this prejudice.

In light of this, it may be uncommon to focus on the psychological struggles refugees and migrants encounter. We seem to talk about food and shelter a lot, but what about the mental health toll? It’s also uncommon to speak of the efforts taken to heal migrants from those struggles. I’ve put together a short list of just a few of those groups offering psychological help to refugees and what they’re doing to make the world a better place in the midst of this dilemma.

BAPK Telephone Counseling

We are seeing an increasing need for psychological services for refugees. After all, they have left their homes under immense pressure, fearing for their lives. We also know that the mental and physical are intertwined, thanks to science. In Germany, the Association for the Relatives of Mentally Ill Persons (BAPK in German) set up a phone counseling service for refugees who arrive in their country.

While not a refugee focused organization, the team at BAPK saw the need for professional counseling that refugees rarely have access to and opened a phone line for struggling refugees. While some places have more counseling for those dealing with extreme racism and prejudice, this phone line may be all the refugees in Germany have.The phone line is available in four different languages, and the success they found led the team to actually visit asylum centers. While a phone line may not be the most ideal form of this counseling, it’s a free service that is important and rarely available to refugees who need it.

There are hotlines for several types of mental illness, but refugees are in a unique situation where they have less resources like those available to them and are often coming to a new country without the money for proper counseling and mental health aid. What BAPK is doing with refugees could be a model for a great, free service other organizations around the world could implement.

Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF)

Recently featured in an article by the Huffington Post, the MSF in Sicily, Italy has been making a lot of progress with helping refugee patients suffering PTSD by using narrative exposure therapy (NET). NET helps those suffering address their memories directly rather than suppressing them in any way. “[NET teaches you that] you don’t have to be afraid of your memories,” says Katy Robjant of The Helen Bamber Foundation, a fellow NET-using organization.

MSF has chosen to use NET because previous efforts using the therapy have shown to be fruitful. Clinical trials have shown significant advantages in terms of patients getting over PTSD in comparison to those who undergo other therapies. MSF may be on to something that the rest of us just haven’t taken the time to find the importance in yet.

Social Workers Around Europe

In recent years, while the Syrian refugee crisis has become what it’s known as now, social workers as a whole have stepped up in conscious response to the issue. In an interview with the Guardian, Ruth Stark of the International Federation of Social Workers said, “the emotional trauma of change is something that social workers know a huge amount about,” though she went on to say they had a lot to learn.

Regardless, social workers’ expertise makes them a great fit to help families affected by discrimination. Thankfully they are taking up arms in the best ways they know how and making progress on their own time where it is well needed.

European Network Against Racism (ENAR)

The ENAR’s website describes themselves as “the only pan-European anti-racism network [combining] advocacy for racial equality and facilitating cooperation among civil society anti-racism in Europe.” In short, they’ve been around since 1998 and work to end discrimination against minorities through organized social and legal efforts.

While they’ve put their focus on a variety of types of racism and phobias through the years, last year they put together an important resource regarding the refugee crisis. The resource addressed refugee inclusion in the workplace and was a guide for employers. It received support from companies like L’Oréal and Coca Cola, and focused on the importance of understanding the asylum process and helping refugees understand employment regulations. Additionally it spoke to employers creating specific opportunities for refugees and those in need of work while trying to escape war and persecution, which in turn has a tendency to help employers and economies.

What efforts do you see for people fighting the refugee crisis in Europe? Let us know in the comments!

*Avery T. Phillips is a freelance human being with too much to say. She loves nature and examining human interactions with the world. Comment or tweet her @a_taylorian with any questions or suggestions.

Good afternoon, all. I received a call today from the President of the United States a little after noontime from Air Force One, and I’ve also spoken to White House Chief of Staff Kelly to ensure we have clarity as to the days ahead. What is most important is to ensure an orderly and smooth transition during a time that the country continues to face significant policy and national security challenges.

As such, effective at the end of the day, I’m delegating all responsibilities of the office of the Secretary to Deputy Secretary of State Sullivan. My commission as Secretary of State will terminate at midnight, March the 31st. Between now and then, I will address a few administrative matters related to my departure and work towards a smooth and orderly transition for Secretary of State-Designate Mike Pompeo.

I’m encouraging my policy planning team and under secretaries and assistant secretaries – those confirmed as well as those in acting positions – to remain at their post and continue our mission at the State Department in working with the interagency process. I will be meeting members of my front office team and policy planning later today to thank them for their service. They have been extraordinarily dedicated to our mission, which includes promoting values that I view as being very important: the safety and security of our State Department personnel; accountability, which means treating each other with honesty and integrity; and respect for one another, most recently in particular to address challenges of sexual harassment within the department.

I want to speak now to my State Department colleagues and to our interagency colleagues and partners at DOD and the Joint Chiefs of Staff most particularly. To my Foreign Service officers and Civil Service colleagues, we all took the same oath of office. Whether you’re career, employee, or political appointee, we are all bound by that common commitment: to support and defend the constitution, to bear true faith and allegiance to the same, and to faithfully discharge the duties of our office.

As a State Department, we’re bound together by that oath. We remain steadfast here in Washington and at posts across the world, many of whom are in danger pay situations without their families. The world needs selfless leaders like these, ready to work with longstanding allies, new emerging partners and allies, who now – many are struggling as democracies, and in some cases are dealing with human tragedy, crisis of natural disasters, literally crawling themselves out of those circumstances. These are experiences that no lecture hall in a academic environment or at a think tank can teach you. Only by people going to the front lines to serve can they develop this kind of talent.

To the men and women in uniform, I’m told for the first time in most people’s memory, the Department of State and Department of Defense have a close working relationship where we all agree that U.S. leadership starts with diplomacy. The men and women in uniform at the Department of Defense, under the leadership of Secretary Mattis and General Dunford, protect us as Americans and our way of life daily, at home and abroad. As an all-volunteer military, they do it for love of country, they do it for you, and they do it for me, and for no other reason. As Americans, we are all eternally grateful to each of them, and we honor their sacrifices.

The rewarding part of having leadership and partnerships in place is that you can actually get some things done. And I want to give recognition to the State Department and our partners for a few of their accomplishments under this administration.

First, working with allies, we exceeded the expectations of almost everyone with the DPRK maximum pressure campaign. With the announcement on my very first trip as Secretary of State to the region that the era of strategic patience was over, and we commenced the steps to dramatically increase not just the scope but the effectiveness of the sanctions. The department undertook a global campaign to bring partners and allies on board in every country around the world, with every embassy and mission raising this to the highest levels. And at every meeting I’ve had throughout the year, this has been on the agenda to discuss.

The adoption of the South Asia strategy with a conditions-based military plan is the tool to compel the Taliban to reconciliation and peace talks with the Afghan Government. Finally equipped are military planners with a strategy which they can execute as opposed to a succession of 16 one-year strategies. This clear military commitment attracted the support of allies broadly and equipped our diplomats with a whole new level of certainty around how to prepare for the peace talks and achieve the final objectives.

In other areas, while progress has been made, much work remains. In Syria, we did achieve important ceasefires and stabilizations, which we know has saved thousands of lives. There’s more to be done in Syria, particularly with respect to achieving the peace, as well as stabilizing Iraq and seeing a healthy government installed, and more broadly in the entire global campaign to defeat ISIS. Nothing is possible without allies and partners, though.

Much work remains to establish a clear view of the nature of our future relationship with China. How shall we deal with one another over the next 50 years and ensure a period of prosperity for all of our peoples, free of conflict between two very powerful nations?

And much work remains to respond to the troubling behavior and actions on the part of the Russian Government. Russia must assess carefully as to how its actions are in the best interest of the Russian people and of the world more broadly. Continuing on their current trajectory is likely to lead to greater isolation on their part, a situation which is not in anyone’s interest.

So to my colleagues in the State Department and in the interagency, much remains to be done to achieve our mission on behalf of the American people with allies and with partners. I close by thanking all for the privilege of serving beside you for the last 14 months. Importantly, to the 300-plus million Americans, thank you for your devotion to a free and open society, to acts of kindness towards one another, to honesty, and the quiet hard work that you do every day to support this government with your tax dollars.

All of us, we know, want to leave this place as a better place for the next generation. I’ll now return to private life as a private citizen, as a proud American, proud of the opportunity I’ve had to serve my country. God bless all of you. God bless the American people. God bless America.

In the local government elections of 2018, the ruling political parties, United National Party and Sri Lanka Freedom Party did not achieve the expected victory. The political alliance of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa won the most of local government bodies all over the country. It gave a boost to the Sinhala-Buddhist nationalist forces like Rajapaksa ally. On the other hand, the election results had created internal crisis within the national government.

In the midst of the political turmoil that emerged after the local government election, the agenda of Sinhala Buddhist nationalist forces began to work well. As the initial phase, these forces attacked a mosque and several business establishments in Ampara town in the eastern province. The violence was unleashed by mobs, claiming that sterilizing pills are used in the Muslim hotels. In particular, fraudulent allegations were made by some Sinhalese youths that the sterilizing pills are mixed in a food called ‘Kothurotti’ which is sold in a Muslim hotel in Ampara.

The above incident was well-planned and provocative without any proven reasonable grounds. It is noteworthy that a number of doctors have been told that long-term sterilizing pills have not yet been discovered by the medical world and they have also demonstrated the fact that any efficient pills in the hot foods like ‘Kothurotti’ will be inactive in any circumstances. In this regard, the Government report later confirmed that the sterilizing content was not used in the particular food.

One of the reasons behind this incident is the deliberate intent of the violence that has been planned against Muslims. Any argument may be legally permitted when it is found in any of the disadvantages substances within the food for the sake of an argument. Otherwise, the issue should be limited to those who are related to the particular business man. But something else happened.

A number of shops belonging to Muslims in the city were attacked on the planned basis by claiming that there was no one. One only religious worship place of Muslims in the city was subjected to severe attacks. During this time many Muslim vehicles were burned down and many of the Muslims were injured by indiscriminate attacks.

Following the Ampara incident, the Sinhalese mobs unleashed the violence against Muslims in Digana area in the central province. The immediate cause of this violence was the attack on Sinhalese youth from Muslim youths who were drunk. However, the particular incident should be dealt in the legal ground. But Sinhalese mobs used the incident for their well-planned propaganda against Muslims. After the death of Sinhalese youth, mobs destroyed Muslims’ mosques, business establishments and homes in Digana and surrounding areas. A Muslim youth was also killed by these attacks and many crores of valuable assets were wrecked. Although the security forces were invited to control the incident, they did not take any prompt action.

The above hazardous situations was immediately spread out to other parts of the Kandy district and resulted in a number of attacks against Muslims. It is noteworthy to mention that all these raids were in place when the police curfew was in force. In the midst of these bouts, the people lost the confidence in the government forces and the government was accused of failing to act fast enough to protect the Muslim minority. The pressures on the government were also increased. As a result, the government declared the state of emergency, imposed ban on social media and arrested ten suspects behind the wave of anti-Muslim attacks.

This violence is not the first time in the case of Sri Lankan Muslims. There have been many unpleasant incidents in the past. All these incidents are caused by the rapid increase in anti-Muslim sentiments among the section of Sinhala Buddhist hardliners. From the beginning, these forces are making a number of false allegations on several matters such as halal food, Muslim women’s dress code, slaughtering animals, Muslims’ population growth and Muslim students’ entrance to the Law College. In fact, there are many factors behind the above accusations such as Islamic revitalization, Islamophobia, symbolic Islam, ethno-religious nationalism and external interests.

Even though the country has presently returned to so-called normalcy, the deep rooted factors that behinds to the above incidents are not yet addressed. In this case, the government must take immediate attention and need to work on the long term plans. It is in fact that this is the high time for religious, political and community leaders to initiate inter-faith dialogue at all possible levels to achieve sustainable peace and reconciliation among ethnic communities of the nation.

*M.A.M.Fowsar, Lecturer in Political Science, Department of Political Science, South Eastern University of Sri Lanka. E-mail: fowsarma@seu.ac.lk

As Egyptians were hoping to see a new Egypt with all democratic rights restored to citizens and their economic position improved, the successful 2013 coup by the military removing and arresting the present Mohammad Morsi came as a rude shock to them.

The military shut the mouths of the people, crippled all democratic expectations. In the televised announcement, Sisi listed Egypt’s achievements during his first term, including a nascent financial recovery after years of political turmoil and economic instability.

People felt betrayed by the revolutionaries and military establishment. They also see a secret deal between them. But most of Arab Muslim nations and their western allies rejoiced the military take over from the democratic dispensation.

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, a former general who came to power in a coup against his democratically elected predecessor, Mohamed Morsi, is now all but certain to win the March election in a landslide. After removing, with the backing of the USA and Saudi Arabia, among others, the first ever elected President Mohammed Mursi, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi became President of Egypt.

In January Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said he will run for a second term in office in an election in March, which the former military commander is widely expected to win. The vote will be held on March 26-28, with a run-off vote on April 24-26 if no candidate wins more than 50 percent in the first round. Candidates will register from Jan. 20 to 29.

Repression

Ahead of its March 26-28 presidential election, the Sisi regime is intensifying its crackdown on a free press. President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi is running essentially unopposed for reelection; the regime has been relentless against even the hint of credible opposition.

A coalition of Egyptian opposition groups have called for an election boycott, calling the vote”absurdity bordering on madness” after all serious candidates were either arrested or subjected to a campaign of intimidation. In a joint statement, eight Egyptian opposition parties and 150 pro-democracy public figures urged Egyptians to stay away from the March polls in protest, accusing the government of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of preventing “any fair competition”.

Several potential candidates have either been arrested or faced threats, intimidation and physical violence, forcing them to drop out. Sami Anan, a former general, had planned to run against Sisi but was arrested at gunpoint by Egyptian security services. His vice-presidential candidate, Hisham Genena, was attacked and seriously injured in a busy Cairo street.

In December 2017, Ahmed Konsowa, an army colonel, was sentenced to six years in prison after announcing his candidacy, while human rights lawyer Khaled Ali withdrew after receiving a three-month prison sentence. The New York Times quoted one of Shafik’s lawyers as saying that the Egyptian government had forced him to withdraw by threatening to investigate previous charges of corruption against him.

Earlier, Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik, seen as the most serious potential challenger to date, said he was no longer considering a bid following a firestorm of criticism from state-aligned media and speculation that he was being held by authorities in a Cairo hotel. His most high-profile challengers are former army chief of staff Sami Anan and human rights lawyer Khaled Ali, but neither is expected to garner enough votes to oust him.

Sisi’s only challenger is Mousa Mostafa Mousa, a government supporter who entered the race at the 11th hour, amid fears that a widespread boycott could lead to embarrassingly few votes being cast. Mousa, who formally submitted his candidacy 15 minutes before the deadline despite not publicly declaring his intention to run until the day before, denied allegations he was cooperating with the government, saying, “We are not puppets in this race.”

However the 66-year-old has repeatedly endorsed Sisi, and last year formed a campaign called “Supporters of President el-Sisi’s nomination for a second term”. Egyptians took to social media and used the hashtag Al-Kombares, which loosely translates to someone playing the role of an “extra”, to mock Mousa’s candidacy and the upcoming poll.

The supporters of Sisi claim that his rule has brought some stability to the country, but critics say his popularity has been eroded by tough economic reforms that have hit people’s livelihood’s hard and by a crackdown on dissidents. Some argue that measures are needed to keep the country stable as it faces security challenges including attacks by Islamic State militants in the North Sinai region.

Egyptian presidents have often “used false organic displays of popularity as part of their political propaganda toolkit. Sisi came to prominence when he led the army’s ouster of President Mohamed Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood in 2013 – Egypt’s first freely elected leader – two years after the downfall of longtime ruler President Hosni Mubarak in the “Arab Spring” uprisings that swept the Middle East. The former general became president himself in 2014, winning 96.91 percent of the vote, although turnout was only about 47 percent of the 54 million voters, after voting was extended for a day. Sisi’s critics say his popularity has been hurt by austerity reforms, security problems, a crackdown on dissidents and his decision to hand two Red Sea islands to Saudi Arabia, which showered Egypt with billions of dollars of aid, touching a nationalistic nerve.

Democracy is causality

Democracy and a free press are again facing an existential threat in Egypt. The regime of President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi is intensifying its long-running crackdown on journalists in the lead-up to the country’s March 26-28 presidential election.

Egypt ranks 161 out of 180 countries in press freedoms according to watchdog Reporters Without Borders’ 2017 Press Freedoms Index. The government’s warnings to media are not new. in recent months, authorities have blocked about 500 websites, including media outlets like Al-Jazeera and the local Mada Masr, while journalists have been arrested.

Media in Egypt faces increased scrutiny and restrictions by authorities ahead of a presidential election this month incumbent Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will dominate. The disturbed president, addressing media, warned on Thursday against “defamation” of security forces.

A reporter for the Huffington Post’s Arabic website was detained last month after publishing an interview with prominent dissident Hisham Geneina who mentioned the existence of documents that are damaging to senior state officials. At least 29 journalists are in detention, according to Reporters Without Borders, including some accused of working for media affiliated with the banned Muslim Brotherhood group. Some of the restrictions are unprecedented.

The government has not confirmed or denied its role in the blackout, but Taher said internet providers do not block websites without a request from authorities. For some outlets, the measure has impacted their operations. One site, Masr Al-Arabia, had to reduce staff by 60 percent.

The government’s State Information Service called for an official boycott of the BBC last week after a report on abuses in which a woman claimed her daughter had been forcibly disappeared by security. The daughter later appeared in an interview on a local television station, saying she had runaway, married and had a child. The BBC said it stood by the “integrity” of its reporters. The report appears to have prompted the prosecution statement saying its lawyers would take action against outlets that publish “false news” and “news and rumours that harm public safety.” Much of the domestic media is seen as generally pliant, and criticism of Sisi is rare.

The government has increased criticism of foreign media, which had been a frequent target of attacks by politicians over the years. It often accuses foreign journalists of biased coverage of the country, especially when it comes to human rights abuses.

Rights groups say he has led an unprecedented crackdown on political opponents, activists and critical media. Those challenging Sisi describe a sweeping effort to kill off their campaigns before they have begun, with media attacks on candidates, intimidation of supporters, and a nomination process stacked in favour of the former general.

Foreign relations

Egypt’s relations with Saudi Arabia have improved, while its relations with the USA have worsened—lately over issues of North Korean arms deals. The reelection of another Egyptian ‘strongman’ will be a significant step backward for the country, made harder to rectify after the fact if the constitution is amended.

After a brief dip in relations over disagreements regarding the Syrian war, Egypt and Saudi Arabia appear to have become closer. Both countries have exceedingly powerful one-man rule systems, with both leaders claiming the mantle of ‘reformer’ against a reform-resistant culture—though both are strengthening their grasp in terms of near-dictatorial powers.

The March 4-7 visit by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman to Egypt is a clear sign of the improved relations. Egypt is supportive of Saudi Arabia’s 9-month long bitter dispute with fellow GCC member, Qatar, which has devolved into a stalemate with no winner.

Saudi Arabia has always been a crucial financial supporter of Egypt—and of Sisi in particular—after the coup that toppled the Muslim Brotherhood government of President al-Morsi and put Sisi in power. Riyadh’s deep opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood matches Sisi’s, and the two are determined to prevent the group from gaining influence in either country.

Saudi financial support for Egypt is more important now given the relative downturn in relations between Egypt and the USA. The issue between the two countries is not over human rights or freedom of the press. President Trump has expressed support for Sisi as a ‘strong leader’ and met with him at the White House in April 2017 and in Riyadh in May 2017.

Rather, the issue is Egypt’s illicit purchases of North Korean military hardware that runs afoul of international sanctions. In August 2017, the U.S. suspended $291 million in military aid to Egypt because of allegations by the USA and the United Nations that Egypt was allowing the North Korean embassy in Cairo to serve as a hub for illicit arms deals.

In 2016, a North Korean freighter was intercepted before it made port in Egypt and was found to be carrying 30,000 rocket-propelled grenades. As the U.S. increases pressure on North Korea over its nuclear weapons programs, it will look very negatively upon any actions that provide Pyongyang with monetary resources.

Egypt has had a long history of arms deals with North Korea, to which numerous US governments have routinely objected. The intense focus by the Trump government on the issue is a rare but important point of contention between Cairo and Washington.

Dictatorship

Abdel Fatah al-Sisi has removed all signs of democracy from the scene of Egypt. After enjoying power of President for a full term, now he is eager to resume power, “democratically” by elections, though for him the poll result would be a cake walk as no one thinks he would be defeated.

Yet, Sisi is keen to create an impression that Egypt is peaceful and people are happy with his misrule.

The expected push to remove term limits—combined with the regime’s absolute control over the national political dialogue and the military’s oversized role in the economy—would have provided the briefest of moments for opponents to organize and promote a future for Egypt that isn’t a return to its past. But that is not possible in Egypt.

There is, of course, opposition to Sisi and the return-of-the-pharaoh rule but it is scattered; the regime has been relentless against even the hint of credible opposition. The absence of unified and organized opposition makes it very unlikely that the expected constitutional changes will be thwarted.

That the regime is still so intent on squashing any reporting that might raise questions as to the country’s current and future paths, even in an election where there is no credible opposing candidate, indicates the goals of the regime are looking beyond the counting of the upcoming ballots.

As the Washington Post noted in a March 8 article, the election is not really about reelecting Sisi; it is about a ‘procedural hurdle to clear before the much more consequential effort of constitutional change.’

Rights activists say the authorities have become more restrictive in general, showing little tolerance for dissent.

Since the election of president Sisi is a foregone conclusion there is no need for speculative exercises here.

The fate of Egyptians cannot be any better after the poll.

Vincent Warren, Executive Director of the Center for Constitutional Rights (CCR) has expressed his concerns regarding the news that Donald Trump is replacing Rex Tillerson at the State Department with Mike Pompeo, who currently heads the CIA, and naming Gina Haspel to head the CIA

The Center for Constitutional Rights represents victims of the CIA Torture Program, including Sharqawi Al Hajj and Guled Duran, and has recently urged the International Criminal Court to open an investigation into the Bush administration’s CIA torture program.

Warren said in a statement that, “During the Bush administration, Gina Haspel oversaw the torture of Abu Zubaydah and others at a CIA Black Site in Thailand, where he was waterboarded 83 times.”

According to Warren, Haspel, “was then instrumental in the destruction of the tapes of those interrogations, which were evidence of torture. She is unfit to lead the CIA. Gina Haspel should be prosecuted not promoted.”

Warren said the CCR further opposes Mike Pompeo’s appointment to head the State Department, “because he is a loose cannon who acts before he thinks, the opposite of the temperament required for the top diplomatic job. He, too, has defended and endorsed torture and characterized those complicit in the CIA torture program as ‘patriots.'”

“Much as their appointments are a disaster for the country and the world, and the Senate must not confirm either nominee, they could not be a better fit for an incompetent and irrational president with contempt for diplomacy, the rule of law, and the most basic tenets of democracy,” Warren said.

Saudi Arabia is planning to issue its first official tourist visas from April 1, ANI News reports citing tour operators.

The plan is a bid to allow non-Muslim tourists visit historic sites such as Jeddah, Riyadh and the ancient city of Mada’in Saleh in the Arabian Desert.

If the plan goes ahead, then this will be the first time that the kingdom will issue visas specifically for tourism, although tourists have been allowed to enter Saudi Arabia for religious business and so-called personal visits in the past.

“We’ve heard so much about Saudi Arabia in regards to business, religion, and politics. But as a traveler, getting to see beneath the news story and understand more about day-to-day life, the people of Saudi, and the amazing historical sites, is a huge driver of interest in visiting the country”, said Andrea Ross, United States’ Director at Wild Frontiers.

Wild Frontiers, which specialises in travel to out-there destinations like Pakistan and the Caucasus (a region in Europe comprising Russia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia), is planning its first visit to Saudi Arabia in November this year.

In order to qualify for a tourist visa, there needs to be at least four guests travelling to Saudi Arabia. The visas will need to be attested by the Saudi Commission for Tourism and National Heritage, which means you will still need to book through a registered tour operator in the country to obtain the visa, according to the tour company Abercrombie & Kent, which already takes visitors to Saudi Arabia under existing visa rules.

Women below 25 years, would be able to apply for tourist visas, but will need a “companion” in order to enter Saudi Arabia.

Non-Muslim travellers will not be able to visit the holy sites of Mecca and Medina, according to Abercrombie & Kent.

Saudi Arabian officials have been talking about opening the country to tourism since 2016.

Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman have initiated the lifting of a number of restrictions, particularly on women since last year, in a bid to open up the conservative kingdom country.

Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia organised its first-ever women’s run, marking a historical moment for its women in the local sports sector. More than 1,500 women had participated in the event.

By Lisa Ferdinando

The United States and its partners have made significant progress in Iraq and Syria, but investments are needed to ensure the gains endure, the commander of U.S. Central Command said today.

U.S., coalition and local partners have made immense contributions to security in the Centcom region, the “most complex area on the globe,” Army Gen. Joseph L. Votel told the Senate Armed Services Committee in a fiscal year 2019 budget hearing.

“In the past year, we have achieved incredible success against [the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria] in both Iraq and Syria,” the general told lawmakers.

Votel commended the Iraqi security forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces for their steadfast efforts, noting they are “operating at their most effective levels.”

They have liberated over 98 percent of the territory previously held by ISIS, he said.

“The destruction of the ISIS physical caliphate is within our grasp,” Votel said.

‘Cleareyed’ About Challenges

Investments in the security forces, relationships and capabilities are needed to hold territory and ensure the terrorists do not return, Votel said.

“As we consolidate our gains in places like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, we remain cleareyed about the challenges that the region continues to present,” Votel said.

He noted many areas of concern in the region, including terrorism, violent conflicts, massive refugee populations, economic stagnation, social upheaval, great power competition, nuclear and ballistic missile threats, humanitarian crises and radical violent ideologies.

Focus on Afghanistan

Bringing the defeat-ISIS campaign to a responsible close, according to Votel, would allow the prioritization of implementing the South Asia strategy in Afghanistan.

“Military success in the campaign presents us an opportunity to reposition forces from Iraq and Syria to Afghanistan in a manner that keeps the pressure on ISIS but also sets us up to break the stalemate in Afghanistan,” he said.

The South Asia strategy reaffirms the enduring U.S. commitment to Afghanistan by reinforcing the two complementary military missions — the NATO-led train, advise and assist mission and the U.S. defeat-terrorism mission, he said.

“With our support, the Afghan national defense and security forces are well postured to begin operations to seize the initiative to expand population control and secure credible elections,” Votel said.

Iranian, Russian, Chinese Influence

Iran’s malign activities across the Centcom region pose a long-term threat to stability, Votel said. Centcom seeks to align military efforts with broader interagency and international activities to “neutralize, counterbalance and shape the destabilizing impact of Iran,” he said.

The National Defense Strategy, he pointed out, identifies the resurgence of great power competition as the principal national security challenge.

He pointed to Russian activities in Syria, saying Moscow’s support of the Assad regime is propping up the regime and adding complexity to the defeat-ISIS campaign.

“Moscow plays both arsonist and firefighter, fueling tensions among the Syrian regime, Iran, Turkey, the Syrian Democratic Forces, the United States and other coalition partners, then serving as a supposed arbiter to resolve disputes,” he said.

Russia’s “manipulative behavior” has placed progress at risk with activities that are not focused on the defeat of ISIS, but rather on preserving its “influence and control over the outcome of the situation,” he said.

China is pursuing long-term steady economic growth in the Centcom region and improving its military posture and force projection, he said.

China and Russia are seeking to fill perceived gaps in U.S. influence while cultivating “multidimensional ties to Iran,” Votel said.

By Ali Mustafayev

Azerbaijan is working to lure investments in development of new trade routes, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov said at the first conference of the Silk Road Support Group of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly in Baku March 13.

“In particular, Azerbaijan held negotiations with Deutsche Bank and a number of other potential investors from countries interested in these routes,” Mammadyarov said.

He noted that the development of international transport routes makes a significant contribution to the economic development of the OSCE region.

“Over the past few days, Azerbaijan has taken significant steps towards diversifying the economy, and in this respect, investments in transport corridors, in the view of the geographical location of Azerbaijan, are very important,” the foreign minister said.

The creation of Alat free trade zone and the development of the international sea trade port in Baku are also significant economic projects of Azerbaijan, according to the minister.

He stressed that Azerbaijan is expanding its investment potential by creating favorable conditions for foreign investors, as well as developing priority non-energy areas for attracting investments.

“These steps are a part of the strategy of President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev. We commissioned the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway last year, which is a reliable and significant railway link for both Asia and Europe,” Mammadyarov noted.

Lapis Lazuli, which will become another link between the West and East, is also a significant transport link with Azerbaijan’s participation, the minister said.

The Silk Road route will serve as an important momentum for economic development of not only Azerbaijan, but all countries participating in the route, Mammadyarov added.

EU financial assistance for Turkey, which aims to help align the country with EU laws, has had only a limited effect, according to a new report from the European Court of Auditors.

Although the assistance was well designed, funding did not sufficiently address some fundamental needs in the rule of law and governance sectors, where critical reforms are overdue, say the auditors. In areas where there was more political will, such as customs, employment and taxation, projects did help bring Turkey into line with EU law. But the results may not be sustainable because of difficulties in spending the funds and backsliding on reforms.

EU financial assistance planned for Turkey from 2007 until 2020 through the Instrument for Pre-accession Assistance amounts to over €9 billion. The auditors focused on the priority sectors of rule of law, governance and human resources (education, employment and social policies), to which €3.8 billion had been allocated.

The auditors found that the Commission set funding objectives which were specific and consistent with the legal framework. The objectives for the rule of law, governance and human resources sectors were relevant and based on the needs which Turkey had identified to align itself with EU law and strengthen its administrative capacity.

In reality, however, the funds spent have barely addressed a number of fundamental needs, say the auditors. These are the independence and impartiality of the judicial system, the fight against high-level corruption and organised crime, press freedom, the prevention of conflicts of interest, and reinforcing external audit and civil society.

According to the Commission’s own analysis, say the auditors, progress in these areas has been unsatisfactory for several years, due to a lack of political will on the part of the Turkish authorities.

“From 2018 onwards, the Commission should better target funding for Turkey in areas where reforms are overdue and necessary for credible progress towards EU accession,” said Bettina Jakobsen, the Member of the European Court of Auditors responsible for the report.

The auditors found that the Commission had decided to support sector-wide reforms rather than stand- alone projects. But sector assessments were not always comprehensive, notably in donor coordination, budget analysis and performance assessment.

Applying conditions to funding can help foster reform, say the auditors. But despite continuing unsatisfactory progress, the auditors found that the Commission had made little use of conditions to support reforms in the priority sectors.

In particular, the Commission seldom used conditions such as the option of recentralising the management of projects or corrective measures if project conditions were not met. Furthermore, the possibility of suspending funding if the principles of democracy and rule of law were not complied with was not explicitly reflected in the regulations.

The projects audited generally delivered the intended outputs, which contributed to aligning Turkey with EU law and strengthening its administrative capacity, even if these were often delayed. But the sustainability of these positive results is at risk, say the auditors, mainly due to a lack of political will, a situation aggravated by the large-scale dismissals and suspensions of public officials and restrictions on civil society.

Another source of concern is that, due to widespread programming and implementation backlogs, the funding program was significantly delayed. This led to reductions in both funding and the time available for the Turkish authorities to implement subsequent projects, and will further contribute to delaying tendering and contracting.

The reasons for these delays were known: weak administrative capacity at some ministries for preparing project proposals, the transition to the sector approach and excessive staff turnover at the contracts unit which manages most of the EU funds spent in Turkey.

The auditors make a number of recommendations to improve the design and implementation of pre- accession assistance to Turkey. Furthermore, the audit results will feed into the Commission’s mid-term review of funding, as well as into the design of future assistance programs to EU enlargement countries.

Scientists from Rutgers University-New Brunswick and Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) have linked the frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States to Arctic temperatures.

Their research was published in Nature Communications.

“Basically, this confirms the story I’ve been telling for a couple of years now,” said study co-author Jennifer Francis, research professor of marine and coastal sciences in Rutgers’ School of Environmental and Biological Sciences. “Warm temperatures in the Arctic cause the jet stream to take these wild swings, and when it swings farther south, that causes cold air to reach farther south. These swings tend to hang around for awhile, so the weather we have in the eastern United States, whether it’s cold or warm, tends to stay with us longer.”

The research is timely given the extreme winter of 2017-2018, including record warm Arctic and low sea ice, record-breaking polar vortex disruption, record-breaking cold and disruptive snowfalls in the United States and Europe, severe “bomb cyclones” and costly nor’easters, said Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at AER and lead author of the study.

In their study, Cohen, Francis and AER’s Karl Pfeiffer found that severe winter weather is two to four times more likely in the eastern United States when the Arctic is abnormally warm than when the Arctic is abnormally cold. Their findings also show that winters are colder in the northern latitudes of Europe and Asia when the Arctic is warm.

Paradoxically, the study shows that severe winter weather in the western United States is more likely when the Arctic is colder than normal.

The researchers found that when Arctic warming occurred near the surface, the connection to severe winter weather was weak. When the warming extended into the stratosphere, however, disruptions of the stratospheric polar vortex were likely. These disruptions usually cause severe winter weather in mid- to late winter and affect large metropolitan centers of the northeastern United States.

“Five of the past six winters have brought persistent cold to the eastern U.S. and warm, dry conditions to the West, while the Arctic has been off-the-charts warm,” Francis said. “Our study suggests that this is no coincidence. Exactly how much the Arctic contributed to the severity or persistence of the pattern is still hard to pin down, but it’s becoming very difficult to believe they are unrelated.”

With more than 1000 flights per day, Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) is one of the busiest airports in the world. Hence, the occurrence of low-level turbulence around HKIA, which can influence the landing and departure of aircraft and is closely related to aviation safety, is an important topic of study.

In a collaborative effort between the School of Energy and Environment at the City University of Hong Kong and the Hong Kong Observatory, the influence of large-scale circulation on the occurrence of low-level turbulence at HKIA was investigated.

By utilizing the Doppler Light Detection and Range (LIDAR) system at HKIA and radiosonde data at King’s Park Meteorological Station, it was found that the possibility of turbulence occurrence is related to the strength of southerly winds. Since the southerly wind passes through the high and complex terrain of Lantau Island to the south of HKIA, it can generate terrain-induced turbulence.

Based on reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts, the local wind direction during turbulence occurrence was found to be consistent with the wind direction over the southern China coast. This suggested that large-scale circulation may play a role in controlling the occurrence of low-level turbulence at HKIA.

The variation in local southerly wind was attributed to atmospheric systems on different timescales, including the passage of temperate cyclones, the westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high, and the seasonal cycle of low-level geopotential height.

Moreover, their contributions to the variation in southerly wind were found to be competitive. Plus, the seasonal-cycle change in geopotential height was found to lead to meridional wind change on the seasonal timescale, resulting in the frequency of low-level turbulence occurrence peaking in autumn.

In summary, the study demonstrates a link between large-scale circulation and turbulence occurrence at HKIA. To elucidate the variation in southerly wind over Hong Kong and the occurrence of turbulence at HKIA, atmospheric systems operating at different timescales should be considered.