Quantcast
Channel: Eurasia Review
Viewing all 73702 articles
Browse latest View live

Indo-Pacific Construct In Australia’s White Papers: Reflections For ASEAN-Australia Future Strategic Partnership – Analysis

$
0
0

By Lloyd Alexander M. Adducul*

The term “Indo-Pacific” is gradually replacing “Asia-Pacific” in the lexicon of at least five countries. In April 2017, Japan revealed its regional strategy for an “open and free Indo-Pacific”. In September 2017, India agreed to interact with an “Indo-Pacific strategy” in its “Act East Policy”. The United States echoed Japan’s “open and free Indo-Pacific” in its National Security Strategy in December 2017. Last January, Indonesia outlined its 2018 foreign policy priorities with reference to the term. Earlier on, Australia referred to the Indo-Pacific in its 2013 Defence White Paper and cited it in its 2016 Defence White Paper and 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper.  All these seem to point to the increasing geo-strategic significance and acceptance of the Indo-Pacific concept.

What’s in the term?

The security community holds varying perceptions about Indo-Pacific. Albeit Indo does not refer to India but the whole Indian Ocean, the term Indo-Pacific underpins India’s growing regional importance. One school of thought avers that the dominant Asia-Pacific construct appears to be inadequate in capturing India’s increasing role in the region. The other narrative reveals the Indo-Pacific construct’s association with a China-balancing agenda. The term can be construed as a validation of India’s regional role, hence downplaying a Sino-centric regional order.

The starting point for Australia’s acknowledgment of the Indo-Pacific concept traces back to its 2009 Defence White Paper.  While the Indian Ocean was initially considered less a strategic priority, its future importance was flagged: “The Indian Ocean will have an increasingly strategic role to play… Australian defence planning will have to contemplate operational concepts for operating in the Indian Ocean region, including with regional partners with whom we share similar strategic interests.”1 This setting paved the way for the 2012 White Paper, Australia in the Asian Century, in which Indo-Pacific was referred to as a “regional construct… linking the Indian and Pacific oceans as one strategic arc that includes Southeast Asia…”2 This Indo-Pacific construct was Australia’s prime consideration in its 2013 Defence White Paper, and was reiterated in the 2016 Defence White Paper and the 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper.

What’s in it for Australia?

The Indo-Pacific has since become the compelling logic for Australia’s strategic and defence planning. Underscoring the maritime environment’s crucial role in military strategy and partnerships, the Indo-Pacific has been described as an evolving region within which Australia conducts strategy.

At the core of Australia’s 2016 Defence and 2017 Foreign Policy White Papers is the need to strengthen the traditional Australia-US alliance system. Arguably, Australia remedies the US’ relative decline in the Indo-Pacific. Amidst China’s assertive economic and strategic ascendance, Canberra does its share to assuage an inert friction between “two of Australia’s most important partners – the United States and China.”3 The white papers underscore the call for the US to retain its leadership role in the region, as Australia acknowledges that it “does not have the capacity to unilaterally protect and further our global interests.”4 As such, Canberra has wittingly sided with a rules-based global order that protects its interests, ensures prosperity and protects global stability. Since free trade and military alliances are vital to its future, Australia deems it has the responsibility to remind its traditional partner of these alliance pillars.

In its 2016 Defence White Paper, Australia sets out its “ambitious plan to regenerate the Royal Australian Navy since the Second World War,”5 thus reaffirming its indubitable role in the regional strategic order. With a sophisticated and globally respected Australian Defence Force, Canberra will be a force to reckon with in the Indo-Pacific.

In this white paper, Australia also recognized that it is “well placed to benefit greatly from the economic growth in the Indo-Pacific region.”6 The strong cooperation that Australia continues to build with its neighbors is crucial in securing its interests. Its strong bilateral and regional ties, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with other Indo-Pacific countries, drive more economic opportunities for Australia.

It is worth mentioning that the 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper regarded India, Japan, Indonesia, and Republic of Korea as countries with which Australia should foster security and economic partnership, and people-to-people links.7 In this era of flux, it is clear that Australia needs to secure its national interests in partnership with other countries, especially those with which it shares democratic values. Developing close partnerships with these countries can also be interpreted as Australia’s strategy to prevent the Indo-Pacific from becoming a source of power conflict. Such divergence of interpretation shows the pitfall of using the Indo-Pacific concept.

What then?

It appears that Indo-Pacific was defined in the white papers more in geographical terms than in a strategic context as the papers leave the Indo-Pacific concept open to myriad understandings. While Australia considers the US’ indispensable role in ensuring a rules-based global order, it does not discount the economic gains in relating with China. As such, it remains unclear if Canberra categorically balances with its traditional ally or hedges in the great power rivalry. Is the Indo-Pacific considered Australia’s strategic system to contain or to engage China? Is it a recognition of India’s increasing eminence to hedge against the latter? Such interpretations may lead to more diverging postulations and expectations on the coherence of the strategy, and its implications for the regional security architecture and Australian policy. Then again, the ambiguity in the use of the Indo-Pacific leaves Canberra some space for strategic calibration in the future.

If the Indo-Pacific concept is envisaged as a multilateral strategy of engagement in the region, a shared operational definition of the Indo-Pacific with Australia’s partners must be in place. This may require consultation with Australia’s like-minded partners to establish a clear-cut strategic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. While the revival of the democratic Quadrilateral Security Dialogue may be essential in such discussions, regional forums such as the East Asia Summit (EAS), the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), and the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (AMM) appear to be more consistent with regional diplomacy as the latter three promote cooperation across other key players in the Indo-Pacific.

Reflections for ASEAN-Australia Strategic Partnership

Recognizing the role of dialogue partners as a driving force in the region’s development, ASEAN has grown since inception to include other state actors in the regional political, economic, and strategic discussion table. ASEAN has regarded Australia with utmost importance in regional diplomacy, as evinced in 1974 when Canberra became ASEAN’s first dialogue partner. Since then, Australia has been invited to and participated in various ASEAN-led forums, including the ARF where it became a co-founding member in 1994, and the EAS in 2005. Compatibly, Australia regards ASEAN multilateralism as a significant mechanism to ensure regional stability. As articulated in its latest Defence White Paper, Canberra “strongly supports the contribution of the ASEAN-led regional security architecture to security and stability in South East Asia.”8 By demonstrating confidence in ASEAN’s efforts, Australia reaffirms its commitment to and support for the organization’s centrality.

For Australia, Southeast Asia remains a security concern that warrants a defence strategy.9 Safeguarding freedom of navigation from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific basin is critical in ensuring free flow of trade that is vital to ASEAN-Australia economic partnership. And despite consistently noting that it is not a claimant state, Australia supports a legally binding resolution to the maritime and territorial disputes in the region, as affirmed in its Foreign Policy White Paper. The future of ASEAN-Australia cooperation will thus spring from Indo-Pacific engagement.

However, it is vital to have a clear, agreed, strategic definition of the term Indo-Pacific between ASEAN and Australia. And as the relations will also hinge upon maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region, ASEAN must also play its role to ensure the security of Southeast Asia vis-à-vis the Indo-Pacific.

Frank Frost acknowledged that multilateral dialogues, among five other factors, will likely affect ASEAN-Australia’s future relations. The ASEAN-Australia Special Summit on 17-18 March 2018 may thus provide an opportunity to discuss the potential of a strategic multilateral Indo-Pacific engagement, among other agenda. By doing so, Australia will not only demonstrate its steadfastness as a partner for regional stability premised on a rules-based order and respect for international law, but will also highlight the importance of ASEAN as a strategic multilateral partner in a dynamic region.

About the author:
Lloyd Alexander M. Adducul
is a Foreign Affairs Research Specialist with the Center for International Relations and Strategic Studies of the Foreign Service Institute. Mr. Adducul can be reached at lmadducul@fsi.gov.ph. The views expressed in this publication are of the authors alone and do not reflect the official position of the Foreign Service Institute, the Department of Foreign Affairs and the Government of the Philippines.

Source:
This article was published by FSI. CIRSS Commentaries is a regular short publication of the Center for International Relations and Strategic Studies (CIRSS) of the Foreign Service Institute (FSI) focusing on the latest regional and global developments and issues.

Endnotes:
1   2009 Defence White Paper, p. 52

2   2012 White Paper, Australia in the Asian Century, p. 232

3   2017 Foreign Policy White Paper, p. 38

4   2016 Defence White Paper, p. 45

5   Ibid., p. 10

6   2009 Defence White Paper, p. 39

7   2017 Foreign Policy White Paper, pp. 40-42

8   2016 Defence White Paper, p. 57

9   Ibid., p. 69


Mohammad Bin Salman’s ‘Charm Offensive’: Hype Or Substance? – Analysis

$
0
0

Mohammad bin Salman is making his debut as Crown Prince during his visit to the United States by promoting a vision of reform for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, but his foreign policies have left the Gulf divided, while Yemen suffers from the horrors of war.

As MBS meets American security and business leaders, he will continue to promote himself as a social and economic reformer by bringing Saudi Arabia into the modern era. Since Mohammad bin Salman rose to power, he has already become a controversial figure. The Saudi-led coalition campaign in Yemen has contributed to the world’s worst humanitarian disaster according to the United Nations, and reports have also emerged on a possible plan to reshape the governing dynamics in the Middle East that could possibly lead to the breakup of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

MBS was confirmed Crown Prince last year and is most likely going to replace his father Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as the future king of Saudi Arabia. MBS has promoted many domestic reforms at home including easing restrictions on women’s rights by allowing them to drive and attend sporting events in stadiums. MBS has also opened up to allowing entertainment and public performances to take place in the KSA, and one of his top priority domestic reforms is the anti-corruption campaign against domestic rivals who criticize him. On the foreign policy angle, Mohammad bin Salman is a strong vocalist against Iranian influence in the region.

The main purpose of Mohammad bin Salman’s visit to Washington is to forge strong relations with the United States that go back decades after the Second World War. Now that the Trump Administration is in the White House, the Saudis might have learned their lessons from Obama after the events of the Arab Spring in 2011, and the ratification of the JCPOA in 2015. MBS basically has two goals during his visit to Washington. One is to legitimize his position as the future king of Saudi Arabia with American recognition, and the second goal for MBS is to promote his ideas for regional policy that align U.S interests with Saudi interests in the Middle East. However, the extent to which the U.S and Saudi Arabia can achieve common goals together on the global stage remains unclear.

Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir reiterated that the status of U.S-Saudi relations are at an all time high. In addition, MBS is currently embarking on an extraordinary trip to the United States that is entering a new phase for welcoming entertainment, free markets, and more business from the arms industries. However, Mohammad bin Salman does not really care about President Trump’s political standing domestically, and the Saudis assume that Trump will hang around until the 2020 presidential elections.

On the foreign policy angle, the Saudis have acted very amateurish in the region with the ongoing campaign in Yemen, as well as being one of the main culprits behind the blockade on Qatar, and arming rebel groups in Syria and Iraq. The key factor behind the U.S-Saudi relationship has been the close working cooperation on public relations which resulted in millions of dollars pouring into influencing policies in U.S think tanks and advertising lobby groups.

Since MBS was declared Crown Prince, his overall performance has been mixed. On the domestic front, many Saudis are welcoming the reforms inside the KSA, but the verdict is too early on, for example, the Vision 2030 and the NEOM projects. However, the process MBS is leading inside Saudi Arabia remains autocratic with change starting at the top.

In regards to Mohammad bin Salman’s recent visit to London, it was a well-planned trip that allowed MBS to take advantage of Prime Minister Theresa May’s desire to show the British public that she can bring in foreign investment in light of the current Brexit negotiations with the European Union. But the difference with MBS’s visit to the U.S is to rectify Saudi Arabia’s influence on institutions that don’t rely heavily on the Trump Administration.

In other words, MBS has listened to the advice of distancing himself from Trump and has also committed Saudi Arabia to maintaining stability in its relationship with the United States pre-2008. Mohammad bin Salman’s visit to the United States is fundamental for Saudi Arabia because MBS realizes that relying on Trump alone is not enough and he needs to win over U.S institutions. This ensures that Riyadh is on board with the policies of the Pentagon and the State Department, as well as with the White House who value the U.S-Saudi partnership.

During Mohammad bin Salman’s visit to the U.S, he will also meet with new Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and with Rex Tillerson out at the State Department, the push to resolve the Qatar blockade will be weakened. Former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was fairly pro-Qatar when the Saudis launched the blockade on the small GCC nation, and he even tried to convince President Trump not to support the Saudi-led effort.

Trump will at least try to create bridges with the GCC states, but the Saudis have sent signals to the White House that the Qatar blockade is not a huge priority for them, and they would rather have Kuwait continue mediation efforts instead of Trump. The U.S will try to push the Saudis to resolve the GCC crisis as soon as possible, but Riyadh is not willing to make concessions anytime in the near future. Even with Pompeo in the State Department, who shares most of Trump’s foreign policy positions on the Middle East, there is likely going to be no significant shift from Washington’s stance in the coming weeks on the GCC crisis.

Inside Saudi Arabia, many Saudis, including the young generation support Mohammad bin Salman’s reforms to liberalize daily life through women being able to drive and joining the workforce, as well as entertainment with concerts and cinemas. The problem MBS will run into through implementing these domestic reforms will be the criticism from the Wahhabi establishment and parts of the royal family.

A lot of people in Saudi society are not entirely pleased with the failures of Riyadh’s rather aggressive foreign policy in the region from the blockade on Qatar to the war in Yemen, but internally, a lot of MBS’s domestic reforms are appealing to many younger Saudis who want to see change for the future. However, many critics oversee the activities of Mohammad bin Salman as someone who has tight control over the media and has controlled every single lever of power in the military, interior, and economy within the kingdom. MBS has promoted a new one-person government and we are not sure what the verdict will be coming from the Saudi people for at least another couple of years.

Saudi Arabia needs to diversify away from oil, but MBS has launched some ambitious projects like the Vision 2030 and the NEOM City project that have some support from ordinary Saudis and from the business establishment as Saudi Arabia continues to search for global partners who can bring in the investments needed to make these ambitious projects a success.

The problem many people will have with MBS is his arbitrary nature of governance. In other words, Saudi Arabia remains lucrative in terms of investment and Mohammad bin Salman is trying to open up monopolies in the kingdom for people, and he needs American investment to carry out his economic projects. If the U.S does not provide the investments needed, MBS could simply look elsewhere to British, Chinese, French, and Japanese markets. However, again, we will see in the short-term if MBS is a capable Crown Prince or not for Saudi Arabia going forward.

Joint U.S.-Israel Exercise Juniper Cobra 2018 Concludes

$
0
0

Exercise Juniper Cobra 2018, a joint U.S.-Israel ballistic missile defense exercise, formally concluded March 15 after several weeks of robust training between U.S. and Israeli military personnel on shared capabilities and interoperability via computer simulations and live scenarios.

Planning for the ninth biennial exercise began in late 2016, U.S. European Command officials said. Activities and preparations associated with the exercise began in late January and continued through March 21. The exercise involved more than 2,500 U.S. personnel and about 2,000 Israeli personnel.

“It was an honor to lead this team of true professionals through completion of U.S. European Command’s top priority exercise for 2018,” said U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Richard M. Clark, 3rd Air Force commander, who also serves as the commander for the deployable Joint Task Force Israel.

“Juniper Cobra 2018 proved to be an incredibly challenging and realistic scenario, requiring trust, communication and collaboration with our Israeli partners,” Clark said. “The relationships built over the last two weeks help bolster our interoperability and pave the path for future engagements and exercises.”

Soldiers, sailors, airmen, Marines and civilians took part in a wide array of joint training opportunities in various locations throughout Israel, ranging from mass casualty response to ballistic missile defense.

Concepts to Carry Forward

“This exercise gave us, as a Marine unit, an opportunity to integrate, train and work bilaterally with the Israel Defense Force,” said U.S. Marine Corps Capt. Garrett Johnson, a company commander for Battalion Landing Team, 2nd Battalion, 6th Marine Regiment, 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit. “I think the concepts that we were able to learn throughout this exercise are something that we’re going to carry forward and be able to apply in the future. It was definitely something that benefited us and will make us stronger as we go to the next training environment.”

The exercise was able to achieve its goal of improving coordination between the U.S. and Israeli militaries by enabling participants to learn from each other’s knowledge and experience, officials said.

“The deep bond shared by Israel and the United States is based on shared values and interests,” said Maj. Gen. Nitzan Alon, head of the Israel Defense Forces operations directorate. “Our two democracies share core values and complement each other in operational and military cooperation.”

Juniper Cobra 2018 was cooperatively planned over the last year and a half and, though driven by the overall situation in the Middle East, the exercise was not related to any specific real-world events, Eucom officials said.

Steadfast Relationship

Army Gen. Curtis M. Scaparrotti, Eucom commander, traveled to Israel March 9-11 to meet with U.S. and Israeli leadership and troops participating in the exercise, and was pleased with the coordination and teamwork.

“The U.S. and Israel have a steadfast military-to-military relationship built on trust developed over decades of cooperation,” Scaparrotti said. “We value the relationships we have with our IDF counterparts, and we will continue to work alongside them to promote stability throughout the region.”

The exercise also included visits from other U.S. and Israeli leaders, including Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Friedman, Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, Israel’s deputy chief of the General Staff, U.S. Navy Vice Adm. Lisa M. Franchetti, U.S. 6th Fleet commander, Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin, Israel Air Force commander, and U.S. Navy Fleet Master Chief Petty Officer Crispian D. Addington, Eucom’s senior enlisted leader.

“I would just like to say thank you the troops,” Addington said during his visit with exercise participants in Israel. “You are doing a phenomenal job, and you continued to build on the teamwork and partnership that was started in 2001 with this exercise, taking it to new levels.”

Ultranationalist Buddhist Rhetoric In Sri Lanka – Analysis

$
0
0

Anti-Muslim sentiments in Sri Lanka can be attributed to the spread of ultranationalist Buddhist rhetoric propagated by Buddhist extremist groups which use Buddhism to justify their narrative. The ambivalent nature of religion allows it to be interpreted by its adherents both as a source of violence and a source of peace.

By Nursheila Muez and Jessica Yeo Jia Lin*

A recent road accident involving a Sinhalese truck driver and four Muslim men in Kandy district, Sri Lanka quickly spiralled into violent conflict after news that the driver died of his injuries days later. Attacks by mobs on Muslim homes and properties prompted the Sri Lankan government to declare a state of emergency.

This recent spate of anti-Muslim attacks in Sri Lanka is neither new nor random. Anti-Muslim sentiments have risen in the country due to the spread of ultranationalist Buddhist rhetoric, similar to one seen in Myanmar recently. One of the key extremist groups in Sri Lanka responsible for such rhetoric is the Bodu Bala Sena (BBS).

Justifying Buddhist Violence

Formed in 2012, the BBS has been actively defending Sinhalese Buddhism by stoking fears of the perceived threats from other religious communities. It largely targets the Tamil-speaking Muslim community, but has also included the Christians in its ultranationalist Buddhist rhetoric.

Rumours that Muslims would outnumber the Sinhalese Buddhists and the belief that the minority was economically superior are often circulated online, causing fear and distrust among the Sinhalese Buddhist majority that they will be displaced through a Muslim “take over”. The BBS has also capitalised on the rise of global Islamist terrorism to demonise the Muslims. Aside from spreading fake news and stoking fear, it has also turned to resources within Buddhism to justify its violent actions.

The understanding of Buddhism is articulated through its five precepts: the first stipulates that a Buddhist should abstain from killing. Many scholars have argued that actions like the Buddhist-Muslim clashes in Sri Lanka contradict the humanistic aspect of Buddhism, yet ultranationalist Buddhist groups like BBS have argued that there are Buddhist texts that justify their actions.

A popular historical and religious resource often used is the Mahavamsa, a post-canonical epic poem that recounts the miraculous visit of Buddha to Sri Lanka. It focuses on the actions of Buddha, King Dutugemunu and King Ashoka. Many ultranationalist Buddhists have argued that the passages in the Mahavamsa permits dharma yuddhaya (the defence of the dharma, which is the eternal law and order of the cosmos, or just war) and the text has been used since Sri Lanka’s colonial days.

A portion of the infamous canon details King Dutugemunu’s conversation with the arahants (the living representations of the dharma). Here, the arahants told the King that he should not feel troubled even though he had killed over 60,000 men. To the arahants, war in Buddhism is justified if the violence contained a moral aspect.

They saw King Dutugemunu as one who was protecting the dharma and noted that no harm was done as the opposing army was attacking their belief. To the arahants, the lives of the 60,000 men was only equivalent to the lives of one and a half human beings. This same passage was also used by one of Myanmar’s monastic leaders Sitagu Syadaw in November 2017 to legitimise the Tatmadaw’s violence against the Rohingya population.

Another popular mention in the Mahavamsa is King Ashoka. Some believe that his act of war helped to spread Buddhism to the conquered population; a view that some hold in high regard. Yet another Buddhist text to note is the Cakkavatti Sihanada Sutta. Even though it is not cited as often as the Mahavamsa, some ultranationalist Buddhists believe the text states that violence can be justified in Buddhism if it is used as a defensive measure.

‘Ambivalence of the Sacred’

This does not at all suggest that Buddhism inherently promotes violence. It is also not to debate whether Buddhists are violent or benevolent people. Rather, the point is to acknowledge and accept that Buddhists who embrace the ultra-nationalist orientation – just like other extremist religious adherents be they Muslims, Christians, or others – are people who experience a spectrum of emotions, including fear, suffering, anger and violence. They may, as a result resort to their religious traditions to seek justification for their situation.

Religious scholar Scott Appleby highlighted the ambivalent nature of the sacred. He posits that there is nothing inherently violent or peaceful about a religious tradition; how a religion manifests itself as violent or peaceful is largely dependent on how its adherents interpret the different resources available within the tradition. This is why terrorists and peacemakers can exist in the same community and adhere to the same religion.

Appleby argues that religion’s ability to incite violence is intimately related to its equally impressive power as a force for peace. It is therefore crucial that the focus shifts to the positive resources within the religion in order to provide a compelling counter-narrative to the exclusivist and ultranationalist rhetoric spouted by groups like BBS.

Way Forward

In this context, other organisations and civil society groups which adopt moderate and humanistic teachings of Buddhism can lead the way in disseminating positive messages. A number of Sinhalese Buddhist leaders in fact have already denounced the ongoing riots, but this move needs to be supplemented with a more long-term strategy of promoting resources for peace in the country.

Additionally, beyond promoting a positive counter-narrative, it is also crucial that ultranationalist Buddhist groups re-think their attitude towards moderate Buddhist institutions, minority religious groups as well as the state in Sri Lanka. For the country to move forward, all these institutions need to work closely together in its peacebuilding process.

*Nursheila Muez is a Research Analyst and Jessica Yeo Jia Lin is a Student Research Assistant in the Studies of Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

Kosovo: Parliament Approves Montenegro Border Deal

$
0
0

By Dia Morina

After numerous delays, Kosovo’s parliament has finally given its approval to the controversial agreement on border demarcation with Montenegro.

Kosovo’s parliament has ratified the long delayed border agreement with Montenegro, which both the EU and US have repeatedly pushed for.

The agreement was ratified on Wednesday when 80 of the 120 MPs in parliament voted in favour of the deal.

This was just enough for the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj, who pushed for the deal.

The agreement was supported by MPs from the opposition Democratic League of Kosovo, LDK, Alliance New Kosovo and Alternative as well as by several non-Serb minority community MPs in parliament and And Adem Hodza from Srpska Lista.

MPs from the opposition Vetevendosje movement set off tear gas four times in the Assembly, in an attempt to prevent the vote.

A total of 13 MPs have been banned from the Assembly session for aiding attempts to set off tear gas in the hall, five of them from Vetevendosje.

Seven Vetevendosje’s MPs were arrested.

Prime Minister Haradinaj urged MPs on Tuesday to ratify the agreement, insisting that it does not damage the interests of Kosovo.

“Vote for this law, today more than ever it is a vote for the state of Kosovo and for freedom of movement,” Haradinaj said, referring to the EU’s insistence that it would not discuss allowing Kosovars free movement in the EU until the border issue was resolved

The main opponent of the agreement was the opposition Vetevendosje movement, which has argued that Kosovo is being asked to surrender land to Montenegro.

The European Union has set ratification of the agreement as the main condition before it will grant Kosovo nationals visa-free access to the passport-free Schengen area.

A previous attempt to ratify the border demarcation agreement failed on February 22.

Georgia: Tatunashvili ‘Presumably’ Tortured, Forensic Expert Says

$
0
0

(Civil.GE) — Irakli Toidze, a forensic expert at the Tbilisi-based Rehabilitation Center for Victims of Torture – Empathy, says Archil Tatunashvili’s body had “multiple [blunt] injuries, scratches and bruises almost all over the body.”

Toidze, who attended the forensic examination at the National Forensics Bureau on behalf of the center, told the media outlets today that “based on the injuries [on Archil Tatunashvili’s body], we can presumably say that he was tortured.”

The forensic expert, however, rejected earlier reports that Tatunashvili was missing a finger.

The Empathy Center issued a written statement as well, stressing the necessity of conducting a complex examination “in line with the international standards, including the Istanbul and the Minnesota Protocols.”

“There are many facts indicating that the Russian-Ossetian examination was aimed at hiding the traces [of torture], and we consider it essential that a complex examination is conducted in line with international standards,” said Mariam Jishkariani, director of the Empathy Center.

Trump’s Protectionism: Method To The Madness? – Analysis

$
0
0

President Trump’s surge towards US protectionism is threatening a global war and disrupting the international trading system. What is the real issue behind his seemingly reckless policies?

By Linda Lim*

What are the motivations behind the current flurry of US trade policy actions — announced tariffs on imports of solar products, washing machines, steel and aluminium, and imminent actions expected against China for “intellectual property theft”? Motivations matter because they indicate what outcomes are desired and thus whether particular policies are likely to be sustained, enhanced or withdrawn.

The chorus of US objections to the Trump trade actions reflect the knowledge from repeated historical experience that trade protection hurts consumers and other industries more than it might benefit shareholders and employees of the protected industry, resulting in net national economic loss. Despite this empirical certainty, and the support of large majorities of the American public for trade and globalisation, every major candidate in recent US presidential elections has espoused some protectionist rhetoric on the campaign trail.

Anomaly in US Politics

Once elected, the president usually backs off from protection, though Republican George W. Bush imposed tariffs on steel from 2002-3, and Democrat Barack Obama on China-made tyres from 2009-12, despite their known pro-free-trade views. This anomaly is explained by the “winner-takes-all” nature of the US Electoral College system; the loser in the national popular vote tally (Bush in 2000, Trump in 2016) can win if he captures the most votes in populous states which typically “swing” their support between the two major parties.

While northeast and west coastal states are reliably “Blue”, voting Democratic in every presidential election, and southern and central states are reliably “Red”, voting Republican, a handful of midwestern industrial states are “Purple”, alternating between the two parties. This gives them an outsize importance in deciding presidential elections, so they receive a disproportionate amount of candidate and presidential attention.

Thus in 2016 Trump’s electoral victory was decided by a mere 77,000 votes out of 136 million cast nationally, enabling him to win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by 0.7% margins, and Michigan by 0.2%, in districts that had lost manufacturing jobs, mainly to China. He won by larger margins in Ohio and Indiana, where the steel industry is concentrated.

US 2016 Presidential Election and China

The 2016 election continued this pattern, with the added wrinkle that electoral districts most heavily impacted by Chinese import competition, a small minority of constituencies nationwide, voted most heavily for Trump. This reflects the “China trade shock” documented by economics professors David Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson.

The authors showed that very large imports from China over a very short time caused 25% of the decline in US manufacturing employment from 1990-2007, and the associated fall in wages, rise in disability claims, and job loss in other sectors in heavily-impacted constituencies.

But today the US economy is booming, with widespread labour shortages including in manufacturing, so concern for jobs only partly explains the Trump administration’s zeal for import protection. Rather, it is the president’s own long-held and deeply-felt personal antipathy toward “unfair trade” that explains his actions, starting with his appointment of trade hawks with steel industry ties to key policy positions.

Peter Navarro, an economics professor given to sensationalist media punditry, obtained funding from steel company Nucor for a documentary film version of his 2011 book “Death By China”, which was endorsed by pre-candidate Trump. Wilbur Ross, a private equity investor, made billions from the Bush steel tariffs when the company he formed from consolidating distressed US steel firms was sold to ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steel producer, on whose board he served until becoming Trump’s Secretary of Commerce.

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer grew up in a depressed Ohio steel town and served as Ronald Reagan’s Deputy Trade Representative, when he used the threat of tariffs to persuade Japan and other countries to reduce their steel exports to the US. He then practised as a lawyer representing US Steel and other steel companies seeking government protection from unfair foreign competition. Both Ross and Lighthizer have hired former steel-industry lobbyists in their agencies.

What binds Navarro, Ross, Lighthizer and Trump is their shared (erroneous) belief that trade deficits are caused by other countries’ unfair trade practices (rather than by domestic savings and fiscal imbalances), which they assert have been tolerated, enabled or perpetuated by “bad trade agreements” such as NAFTA and the WTO.

Protectionism for National Security?

But the WTO exists in part to restrain unfair trade practices, with the US a major beneficiary in its many successful petitions under the WTO’s dispute resolution process. The WTO allows both temporary “safeguards” against import surges, and anti-dumping and countervailing duties against predatory pricing and state subsidies, with steel and China being frequent targets by many countries around the world.

Eschewing these conventional measures, the Trump administration has instead resorted to “national security” as the justification for its steel and aluminium tariffs. This provision in both national and WTO trade rules has been little used because it is a “blunt instrument” of vague definition, and could apply to many industries, spurring copycat and retaliatory moves at home and abroad.

Invoking national security implies that the national interest is served by protection even if it inflicts net economic losses on the nation as a whole. The administration has already used this justification to block semiconductor company Broadcom’s proposed acquisition of Qualcomm — an unprecedented move. It also underlies the expected sanctions forthcoming on China for alleged intellectual property theft and forced technology transfer.

In the case of steel and aluminium, the “national security” argument is a smokescreen for purely protectionist motivations. Defence industries’ dependence on the imported metals is tiny, and the Defence Department opposes the tariffs, which undermine national security by hurting US allies ̶ the largest source of imports ̶ rather than its perceived strategic competitor, China.

The Real Issue: Existential Nationalism

So if jobs and national security are not the main motivation for these tariffs, what is? Trump sets great store by keeping his more extravagant electoral promises even if they do not make economic sense (like a Mexican border wall). That his supporters ̶ disproportionately older, white, less-educated and lower-income ̶ are more anti-trade than average would limit the electoral damage.

But electoral politics can be subverted by retaliation, as the European Union did by targeting punitive tariffs on exports from “Red” states in retaliation against the Bush steel tariffs, hastening their removal. In the current case, the EU has threatened retaliation against exports from Kentucky and Wisconsin (both states represented by Republican House leaders), while Trump-voting farm communities would suffer from retaliatory barriers against their export crops.

Harvard professor Martin Feldstein, a Republican who supports free trade, suggests that US trade negotiators are using the threat of tariffs on Chinese steel producers as a way to persuade China’s government to stop requiring foreign (non-steel) companies to transfer technology to Chinese parties in exchange for market access. In other words, steel is not the real issue here.

But the configuration of electoral politics and policymaker personalities outlined here suggest that it is. Many countries view steel as a strategic industry that deserves state protection and subsidy — hence the global excess capacity to which China is the largest but not only contributor. President Trump goes a step further in claiming: “If a country doesn’t have steel, it doesn’t have a country… This is more than just pure economics. This is about defence. This is about the country itself.”

Such existential nationalism suggests that we may expect steel protectionism to endure, and to be followed by other protectionist actions, given four other enabling conditions. First, the currently strong, labour-short US economy, with rising wages and lower taxes, will mitigate the job losses and higher prices from protection. Second, strong growth and fiscal stimulus under tax reform will widen the trade deficit which to Trump and his aides signal that the US is “being taken advantage of” by the unfair trade practices of other countries, especially China.

Third, there is widespread government and business support in the US, EU and elsewhere for getting seriously tough on China for its longstanding unfair trade practices. Fourth and finally, those protectionist Midwest industrial states remain electorally strategic, and Trump is already working on his reelection campaign.

*Linda Lim is NTUC Professor of International Economic Relations 2018 at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Relations (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. She is also Professor Emerita of Corporate Strategy and International Business at the Stephen M. Ross School of Business, University of Michigan.

Vladimir Putin And War Propaganda – OpEd

$
0
0

Vladimir Putin is blamed for everything that goes awry in Europe and the United States. In the United Kingdom his country was even blamed for bad weather as tabloid headlines screamed about icy Russian winds. The Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s Electoral College victory are said to be the result of Putin’s interference, even though the machinations of American oligarch Robert Mercer are most responsible for both outcomes.

When high level vitriol is shared by the corporate media and the American political duopoly and then repeated ad nauseum it is clear that the target will be subjected to more than mere slander. Such an attack carried out against a foreign leader is proof that the United States is ready for war by other means if not outright military conflict.

Russia has been a target ever since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. In its weakened state it was a victim of its own rapacious oligarch class and aside from having a nuclear arsenal was no match for its former rival. Bill Clinton openly dispatched operatives to meddle in the 1996 election and ensured that Boris Yeltsin kept the country ripe for plunder.

But in a supreme irony of history Yeltsin chose Vladimir Putin to succeed him. He took on the worst of the thieves and in so doing made himself an enemy of forces who hoped to pull his country apart. But he was not antagonistic to the United States. Libya might have been saved if Russia had used its United Nations Security Council veto against the no fly zone resolution in 2011. Only when the United States installed a fascist, anti-Russian government in Ukraine did Putin get the message that America should not be accommodated.

Putin stopped going along to get along but the American appetite for conquest is unstoppable. Syria is the place where Russia drew a line in the sand — and successfully, too. But the United States and NATO won’t admit defeat and continue the suffering of the Syrian people.

Now the drama surrounding the poisoning of former Russian spy Sergie Skripal in the U.K. has ensnared the Russian government. It is far fetched to think that in the midst of an election campaign and the upcoming world soccer cup in Russia that Putin would decide to attack a former double agent he had allowed to go free eight years ago.

Prime Minister Theresa May is like her American counterparts: a liar and a violator of international law. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has a process for nations to request information from one another and they are given 10 days to do so. Instead May demanded that Russia prove the unprovable, that it wasn’t responsible, and that it do so in 24 hours. She declared that Russia was “likely” responsible and expelled 23 Russian diplomats from the country.

Labour party opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn was little better. He did say that the government should actually wait for proof of Russian involvement in Skripal’s poisoning but he also indulged in an anti-Russian screed as he vented against authoritarianism, oligarchs and human rights abuses. Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman had just received a warm welcome in London from May, the royal family and the press. No one said a word about his genocide against the people of Yemen. But facts won’t get in the way of blatant war propaganda.

Putin has created a kind of madness on both sides of the ocean as politicians look for ever more bizarre ways to engage in Russophobia which is intended to damage his nation. Donald Trump’s appointment of Rex Tillerson as secretary of state was said to be influenced by Putin. Of course everyone conveniently forgot that trope and now Tillerson’s dismissal is said to have been carried out on Putin’s orders.

Putin is even accused of being a racist. The Christopher Steele dossier, a creation of the Democratic Party and the ill-fated Hillary Clinton campaign, alleges that some on Putin’s staff used the “N-word ” in reference to Barack Obama. Any assertions in this dubious document are impossible to prove and it is unlikely that Steele’s second hand Russian sources reached into the Kremlin inner circle. This particular assertion comes from Michael Isikoff, a Steele partner in crime who dutifully leaked information which led to the granting of a FISA warrant and the Mueller investigation of Trump.

The creation of an all purpose villain is meant to cover up Democratic Party electoral failures, end the Trump presidency, and of course make the case for the American exceptionalism and interventions. Regime change, proxy wars, and imperial conquest are all very much a part of the anti-Putin hysteria.

But the Russophobes are playing a very dangerous game. The story of the poisoned man does not take place in a vacuum. While the public are distracted by a tall tale of Putin killing any Russian who ever died outside of that country the very dangerous Syrian war continues. Lies about the Russian government should be taken very seriously. They are war propaganda and they are meant to get public support for military action against Russia and its allies.

The Skripal story is so murky that it will be difficult to ever determine culpability. But years of lies have had the desired effect. The public will believe anything about Putin and the Russian government no matter how ridiculous the charge. The American media are finally forced to report on the story of Robert Mercer’s Cambridge Analytica and the role it played in getting Trump an Electoral College victory. But the implications of a right wing oligarch tipping the scales in our so-called democracy are ignored. Instead the New York Times reported on the Russian ancestry of a Cambridge Analytica staffer in a desperate effort to continue the dangerous charade.

Fifteen years ago this same government proclaimed that Iraq was the great danger and used the charge to make the case for war. Little has changed since. America excels at warfare and that is always preceded by propaganda.

In announcing new weapon developments Putin declared that mutually assured destruction (MAD) is not a thing of the past. If the U.S. and its allies were sane this would be a positive development. But they are not sane and every move and every charge brings the world closer to the precipice. The United States, not Russia, poses the greatest threat to peace and life on the planet. That must never be forgotten.


Why So Secret? The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court And Unique Fragility Of Communications Intelligence – Analysis

$
0
0

By George W. Croner*

(FPRI) — The public debate over the contents of the applications considered by the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) in authorizing the electronic surveillance of former Trump campaign advisor Carter Page has brought renewed focus to the secrecy in which the FISC operates. Competing partisan releases from the House Intelligence Committee have served only to politicize the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act’s (FISA) statutory process governing judicial approval of FISA surveillances directed at U.S. persons. Accompanying this political fencing is renewed criticism of the secrecy in which the FISC operates; notwithstanding that this specific feature of the FISA process received relatively little attention during Congress’s recent extended consideration of whether to renew one of FISA’s most important elements—the collection program conducted under Section 702.

Generally lost in the media calls for less secrecy and greater disclosure of FISC proceedings and operations is any acknowledgement, much less extended discussion, of the reasons and realities that underlie the current operating structure.

What follows is an effort to bring some light to those considerations.

With certain limited exceptions, “electronic surveillance” under FISA contemplates the acquisition of the contents of a wire or radio communication. The effort to extract foreign intelligence information from these contents is the essence of “communications intelligence” (COMINT) activities, and most FISA surveillances are directed at human targets in an effort to acquire COMINT. Given this apodictic feature of the FISA process, it is surprising that COMINT, and the singular fragility associated with its collection and production, is rarely mentioned or acknowledged in the criticisms directed at the secrecy of FISC processes.

A Brief Recounting of the Development of Communications Intelligence Efforts

Through the long history of human diplomacy and conflict, competitors always have sought to gain an edge through intelligence activities that would divulge the intentions and activities of their opponents. The advent of electronic communication devices provided adversaries with the ability to communicate and coordinate their activities over much larger distances, naturally leading to corresponding efforts to collect and derive information from these communications. This is the paradigm of COMINT activities.[1]

World War I represented the first truly international conflict where electronic communication technologies, and efforts to safeguard the communications transmitted with those technologies, were widely used. On a number of occasions during the First World War, nascent efforts at decoding enemy communications significantly impacted both military and diplomatic events. For example, a German mathematics professor attached to the German Army as a cryptographer easily broke Russian codes in August 1914; a success that, along with sloppy Russian communications practices, created significant tactical opportunities that the Germans exploited to defeat the Russians at the critical Battle of Tannenberg.

Three years later, in what has been described as the most significant British intelligence success of the war, British intelligence components intercepted and decoded the contents of the Zimmerman Telegram in which Germany revealed its intent to resume unrestricted submarine warfare while offering the Mexican government inducements to go to war with the United States in the event this action prompted the Americans to enter the war on the side of the British. The decryption of the Zimmerman Telegram marked one of the earliest occasions where COMINT is recognized as having decidedly influenced world events. It would not be the last.

While the United States remained neutral during the early years of WWI, a cipher clerk for the U.S. State Department named Herbert Yardley spent his free time trying to decode encrypted State Department communications. His efforts revealed significant vulnerabilities in the codes being used by the United States and, once the U.S. entered the war, Yardley was given command of an army intelligence unit whose activities focused primarily on breaking enemy codes.

Following the war, the U.S. Army and the State Department decided to fund Yardley’s continued codebreaking efforts. Reflecting a problem that still defies solution today, Yardley established his “Cipher Bureau”[2] in New York City because, it has been said, he feared the spies and leaks that abounded in Washington, D.C. Yardley’s group enjoyed considerable success in its early cryptanalytic efforts, particularly those directed at Japanese communications systems, which allowed the Black Chamber to make a significant contribution to American negotiating efforts during the Washington Naval Conference in 1921. Those successes, however, were inadequate to preserve the Black Chamber’s operations and, in 1929, the State Department terminated its funding at the direction of then-Secretary of State Henry Stimson, who famously commented that: “Gentlemen do not read each other’s mail.”[3]

Extraordinary Security Measures Become a Cornerstone of Protecting the Historic Cryptologic Achievements of World War II

The Second World War saw unprecedented communications intelligence efforts directed against German and Japanese communications systems that produced historically significant outcomes in terms of technique, achievement, and impact. The British codebreaking efforts attacking the German Enigma system have been widely recounted in books and films with varying degrees of accuracy;[4] but, what is less well-publicized are the security protocols implemented to protect the secrecy of both the cryptanalytic effort and the intelligence produced by that effort. The need to preserve security for these activities led to the creation of an entirely separate distribution process for product coming from Ultra, the codename for the intelligence product resulting from the exploitation of Enigma, characterized by a plethora of use and dissemination restrictions.

Similar limitations were applied to the use and dissemination of intelligence product resulting from the COMINT successes achieved by American cryptanalysts against Japanese diplomatic and military codes.[5] Magic was considered so valuable and its compromise so potentially harmful to the American war effort that, in 1944, Army Chief of Staff George Marshall wrote a personal letter to Thomas Dewey (the Republican candidate running for president against Franklin Roosevelt) who had threatened to make a major campaign issue of the intelligence failures associated with the Pearl Harbor attack. In his letter, Marshall warned: “To explain the critical nature of this set-up, which would be wiped out in an instant if the least suspicion were aroused regarding it, the Battle of Coral Sea was based on deciphered messages and therefore our few ships were in the right place at the right time. Further, we were able to concentrate our limited forces to meet their naval advance on Midway when otherwise we almost certainly would have been some 3000 miles out of place. We had full information on the strength of their forces.”

In response, Dewey promised not to raise the issue—and kept his word.

The Venona project provides one more illustration of both the singular value and unique fragility of communications intelligence. Beginning in 1943, the Army’s Signal Intelligence Service began a program (later continued by the National Security Agency) that, for 37 years, sought to decrypt messages transmitted by the intelligence elements of the Soviet Union (i.e., the NKVD, KGB, and GRU). The program had its origins in one of those fortuitous occurrences that often mark the difference between cryptologic success and failure.

Soviet message traffic was encrypted using a one-time pad system but, due to a serious blunder, some of this traffic was vulnerable to cryptanalytic attack.[6] Under pressure created by the German advance on Moscow in 1941, the Soviet company that produced the one-time pads inadvertently produced roughly 35,000 pages of duplicate key numbers. The duplication, which undermines the security of a one-time pad system, was discovered, and the Soviets sought to eliminate the vulnerability by dispersing the keys among widely separated users. The effort failed, and American cryptanalysts discovered the duplicate keys.

Even with the flaws in the one-time pad system, breaking the codes proved an exhaustive task but, by December 1946, Venona messages had been decrypted showing the first Soviet penetrations of the Manhattan Project. Ultimately, Venona decryptions also revealed the espionage activities of both the Rosenbergs and the Cambridge Five.[7] Yet, despite these successes, Venona also demonstrated the difficulties encountered in any communications intelligence effort. Ultimately, fewer than 3,000 messages were decrypted out of hundreds of thousands sent, in part because the cryptanalytic effort was at least partially compromised to the Soviets, and in part because the Soviets continually altered certain aspects of the communications system producing the Venona traffic.

Notwithstanding the limited exploitation achieved by the Venona effort, the intelligence derived from the undertaking was significant and security surrounding the Venona project was extraordinary. So concerned was Army Chief of Staff Omar Bradley about suspected leaks emanating from the White House that he camouflaged the origins of Venona-derived information even from President Harry Truman—a protection of intelligence sources and methods perhaps unmatched in U.S. history. Not until 1995, 15 years after its last decryption effort and more than 40 years after its inception, did the bipartisan congressional Commission on Government Secrecy direct the public release of details of the Venona project.

Security Considerations Impacting U.S. Cryptologic Activities

The cryptologic successes of Ultra, Magic, and Venona were all fresh in the minds of senior American officials as they reconfigured the country’s defense and intelligence structures in the aftermath of the Second World War. A 1950 National Security Council directive, records that “[t]he special nature of Communications Intelligence activities requires that they be treated in all respects as being outside the framework of other or more general intelligence activities.”[8] Contemporaneously with these reorganization efforts, Congress demonstrated its own recognition and concern for protecting the nation’s communications intelligence programs by enacting 18 U.S.C. § 798; a part of the espionage statutes that specifically punishes the unauthorized disclosure of classified information concerning the communication intelligence activities of the United States. As the House Report accompanying the passage of § 798 observes, the bill “is an attempt to provide . . . legislation for only a small category of classified matter, a category which is both vital and vulnerable to an almost unique degree.”[9] No other form of intelligence product is specifically identified for such singular protection and this criminal provision is complemented by an equally unique civil statute that precludes disclosure of virtually any substantive information concerning the activities of the National Security Agency.[10]

This acknowledgement of “[t]he special nature of Communications Intelligence activities” is a succinct recognition that COMINT carries both singular value and unique vulnerability. The very purpose of cryptography is preservation of the secrecy of the underlying communication. Correspondingly, a cryptologic success that permits access to what an adversary believes to be secret provides valuable intelligence while simultaneously leaving the adversary ignorant of its own communications vulnerability. Thus, secrecy is an axiomatically essential element of success to any COMINT effort in no small measure because it is relatively easy for an adversary to frustrate a prodigious cryptologic effort by, for example, altering the frequency on which a radio communication is transmitted, using a different transmission pattern or mode of transmission, or changing the code. Even worse, in the eyes of many intelligence experts, an adversary who becomes aware that an opponent believes it has achieved a cryptologic success may exploit that belief by using the ostensibly compromised communications to transmit deliberately false or misleading information.[11]

Venona, with its fortuitous discovery of a singular communications mistake (the Soviet’s use of duplicative one-time pads), illustrates the circumstances that can produce a unique cryptologic opportunity. That opportunity was protected by extraordinary security measures, yet periodic changes in Soviet communications practices still adversely impacted Venona’s success. Simultaneously, suspicions that the Soviets had become aware of aspects of the Venona effort produced concerns that communications decrypted later in the Venona effort actually carried disinformation deliberately transmitted to mislead. Such is the paradox often facing cryptologists and intelligence analysts demonstrating, again, the singular frangibility of the COMINT process.

Congress Recognized the Need for Secrecy in its Newly Created FISA Court

As noted at the outset of this article, FISA-authorized electronic surveillance principally seeks and produces COMINT, and the fragility of COMINT was well-known to legislators as they crafted the FISA statute in the mid-1970s. Nothing in the legislative history surrounding the enactment of FISA in 1978 indicates that Congress intended the operations of the newly created FISC to pose any jeopardy to the security considerations essential to safeguarding the country’s COMINT operations previously recognized in earlier congressional legislation.

The FISC was created to interpose a level of judicial review into the process of conducting electronic surveillance for foreign intelligence in the United States. That level of review was intended to scrutinize applications for electronic surveillance to assure such surveillance was conducted consistently with rights secured by the Fourth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. As one of those judges, Dennis Saylor, recently observed, “[w]e are the only country in the world, the only one of 197 sovereign nations, that interposes a court between the government and its citizens [in connection with foreign intelligence surveillance].”[12]

Notably, for all the recent squabbling regarding the FISC process, it largely resembles the ex parte procedures used with any “conventional” law enforcement wiretap: a single judicial official decides whether or not to permit surveillance based on an application presented in a closed proceeding by representatives of the executive branch (i.e., generally employees of the Justice Department).[13] Moreover, the judicial officials serving on the FISC and charged with reviewing and approving FISA applications or certifications are Article III judges (chosen by the Chief Justice of the United States) who, aside from their FISC responsibilities, perform the duties regularly assigned to U.S. district and circuit court judges in adjudicating civil and criminal proceedings. Consequently, they already are fully conversant with overseeing the safeguards governing the conduct of electronic surveillance for law enforcement purposes and can bring that knowledge and experience to bear in applying FISA’s provisions to electronic surveillance initiated for foreign intelligence purposes.

Nothing in the history of FISA indicates that the FISC was meant to serve as an ombudsman arbitrating disagreements that require balancing foreign intelligence secrecy against public disclosure demands. The FISC exists solely to insure that electronic surveillance conducted for foreign intelligence purposes is conducted consistently with the requirements of the FISA statute and with Constitutional guarantees. While critics vociferously call for greater transparency in FISC proceedings, the judges handling those proceedings recognize both the unique nature of their duties and the dangers to national security mandating that those duties be performed in secrecy. As the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court of Review recently observed:

Although the movants and the court-appointed amicus suggest that the argument for a First Amendment right of access to FISC opinions is parallel to the First Amendment right of access to court opinions in other settings, the work of the FISC is different from that of other courts in important ways that bear on the First Amendment analysis.

The FISC is a unique court. It is responsible for reviewing applications for surveillance and other investigative activities relating to foreign intelligence collection. The very nature of that work, unlike the work of more conventional courts, requires that it be conducted in secret. Moreover, the orders of the court, including orders that entail legal analysis, often contain highly sensitive information, the release of which could be damaging to national security. See generally In re Motion for Release of Court Records, 526 F. Supp. 2d 484, 487-90 (FISC 2007) (Bates, J.).

Apart from the highly sensitive nature of the work, the FISC is not well equipped to make the sometimes difficult determinations as to whether portions of its orders may be released without posing a risk to national security or compromising ongoing investigations. For those determinations, the court has relied on the judgments of the Executive Branch, in the form of classification decisions. Accordingly, while we agree with the movants that they have standing to litigate the issue of access to the redacted portions of the court’s opinions, our decision should not be taken as an endorsement of their suggestion that First Amendment analysis applies to the FISC in the same manner that it applies to more conventional courts.[14]

This is a heartening exercise of judicial deference reflecting an appreciation for the COMINT security concerns that have been virtually ignored in the recent reporting critical of FISC secrecy. It is essential that citizens maintain such perspective in these highly turbulent, highly politicized times to insure that valuable intelligence sources and methods are not compromised.

About the author:
*George W. Croner
, a Senior Fellow at FPRI, previously served as principal litigation counsel in the Office of General Counsel at the National Security Agency. He is also a retired director and shareholder of the law firm of Kohn, Swift & Graf, P.C., where he remains Of Counsel, and is a member of the Association of Former Intelligence Officers.

Source:
This article was published by FPRI.

Notes:
[1] Unless a communication is sent in the “clear” without the use of any code or encryption process to mask its contents, the transmission necessarily involves the use of “cryptography.” “Cryptography” is, essentially, the science of encoding and decoding communications to keep their content secret. “Cryptology” is the study of cryptography; generally undertaken for the purpose of solving or breaking an encryption.

[2] In a later book recounting the activities of the Cipher Bureau, Yardley called it the “American Black Chamber,” and this is the name by which Yardley’s organization is now remembered.

Parenthetically, the publication of Yardley’s book, The American Black Chamber, in 1931 was a bombshell. To furnish perspective on its impact, it is often described as the most famous book ever published about American cryptology and, today, it would be comparable to a National Security Agency (NSA) employee publicly revealing and accurately recounting the complete communications intelligence operations of NSA for the past 12 years.

[3] Stimson’s concerns were focused on directing codebreaking efforts at the communications of allied nations and not, in general, with communications intelligence activities. Ironically, as Secretary of War in WWII, Stimson presided over some of history’s most renowned communications intelligence efforts directed at exploiting German and Japanese communications systems.

Directing COMINT efforts at allies’ communications continues to create international tensions, as witnessed by the Edward Snowden revelation of NSA COMINT activities directed at Germany (and other “friendly” nations), for example, and by the disclosure that Britain’s signals intelligence agency (i.e., GCHQ) was intercepting and reading foreign diplomatic emails during the G20 conference in London in 2009.

[4] Contrary to the recounting portrayed in The Imitation Game, initial success in exploiting Enigma was achieved not by Alan Turing but by Polish intelligence operatives prior to the start of WWII. Poland shared its progress with British intelligence, and Turing and his confederates continued the efforts directed against Enigma through that system’s many evolutions as the war progressed.

[5] The intelligence effort (and corresponding product) resulting from the exploitation of the Japanese Red, Blue and Purple codes was (and is) collectively referenced by the code name Magic.

[6] One-time pads are an encryption technique that cannot be broken, but requires the use of a one-time pre-shared key the same size as, or longer than, the message being sent. In this technique, plaintext is paired with a random secret key (also referred to as a one-time pad). Each character of the plaintext is then encrypted by combining it with the corresponding character from the pad. If the key is truly random, is at least as long as the plaintext, is never reused in whole or in part, and is not compromised, then the resulting enciphered text will be impossible to decrypt.

[7] Kim Philby, Donald Maclean, Anthony Blunt, Guy Burgess and John Cairncross were Englishmen who spied for the Soviet Union. The sobriquet Cambridge Five arises from their first having met during time spent at Cambridge University. Ironically, Philby first became aware of Maclean’s potential exposure as a spy through information he gained that was derived from Venona decrypts. This allowed Philby to alert Maclean so that Maclean could escape capture. Philby, too, later escaped to Moscow.

[8] National Security Council Intelligence Directive No. 9: Communications Intelligence Activities (USCID No. 9), March 10, 1950.

[9] H.R. Rep. No. 81-1895 at 2 (1950).

[10] Sec. 6 of P.L. 86-36 (the ‘National Security Agency Act of 1959’ provides that: (a) Except as provided in subsection (b) of this section, nothing in this Act or any other law (including, but not limited to, the first section and section 2 of the Act of August 28, 1935 (5 U.S.C. 654) [repealed by Pub. L. 86-626, title I, Sec. 101, July 12, 1960, 74 Stat. 427]) shall be construed to require the disclosure of the organization or any function of the National Security Agency, or any information with respect to the activities thereof, or of the names, titles, salaries, or number of the persons employed by such agency. 50 U.S.C. § 402. Note: emphasis added.

[11] For example, by early 1942, U.S. Navy cryptanalysts had achieved considerable success in exploiting Japanese naval communications using the Japanese Navy’s Jn-25b code.

In early 1942, Navy cryptanalysts began seeing traffic describing a massive attack intended against a target identified as “AF.”  There was some suspicion that the target was Midway Island but the identity of “AF” remained unknown so the Americans sought to use their secret success in decrypting Japanese communications in an effort to confirm that Midway was the intended target.

An unencrypted, clear text message was circulated among American units stating that Midway’s water purification system was broken.  It was expected that the Japanese would intercept the clear text message, and they did.  When encrypted Japanese communications were sent using the Jn-25b code informing Japanese naval units that the water purification systems at “AF” were broken, the U.S. intercepted these messages and the subsequent decrypts confirmed that Midway was “AF.”

With this information, the United States was able to concentrate its numerically inferior forces and achieve one of the most stunning victories in the history of naval warfare.

[12] A Rare Look Inside America’s Most Secretive Court, Boston College Law School Magazine, January 21, 2018.

[13] Indeed, with the introduction of amicus curiae counsel through the passage of the USA Freedom Act in 2015, the FISC process now often incorporates an external participant not present in the law enforcement context.

[14] In re Certification of Questions of Law to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court of Review, Docket No., FISCR 18-01 (FISCR March 16, 2018) available at www.fisc.uscourts.gov. The emphasis added to the quotation is mine and is not in the original.

It should be noted that this opinion addresses only the question of whether the claimants (the ACLU, et al.) have standing even to assert a claim of access to the classified parts of FISC opinions. While the opinion concludes that the claimants possess the necessary standing, it emphasizes that standing to assert the claim does not presage success on the merits of that claim. As the FISCR states, “Importantly, our decision-like that of both the FISC majority and the dissent-is limited to the issue of Article III standing. We do not address the merits of the question whether the movants are entitled to have access to any of the materials in dispute in this case or, more broadly, whether the FISC is authorized to order that members of the public be granted access to portions of FISC opinions that have not been declassified by the Executive Branch.”

Why Did It Take Four Years For Govt To Confirm Islamic State Killed 39 Indians? – OpEd

$
0
0

By Kabir Taneja

Union External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj told Parliament on Tuesday, 20 March, that the government found DNA proof regarding the death of 39 Indian workers who went missing in June 2014 from Mosul, Iraq, after ISIS took over the city. Her announcement ended years-long speculation, mostly from the government’s part, on the fate of the missing.

DNA matches from bodies exhumed out of mass graves surrounding the infamous Badush prison, on the outskirts of Mosul along the banks of river Tigris, confirmed the deaths of the missing Indians. According to a detailed account by the lone survivor from the group, Harjit Masih, the remaining men were killed, execution style, on 15 June 2014, four days after their abduction.

A Brief History of ISIS’s Role in Iraq

The run-over of Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, in 2014 was not a black and white affair. ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s forces drove into the city mostly unchallenged, as many citizens welcomed them on the premise that the Sunni group would offer protection and betterment after Baghdad disposed of many Sunni men in the Iraqi army and replaced them with often younger and incompetent Shiite ones.

This sectarian rift emboldened ISIS, as its leader announced the setup of the caliphate, his own proto-state, from the city’s famous Al Nuri grand mosque. In the wake of all this, 39 Indian workers were trapped and lost their lives.

Multiple sources, other than Masih, had confirmed by the end of 2014 that the Indians were no more. However, the government persisted on its strange perception that it had sources that would confirm in writing that the 39 were alive, almost dismissing his eye-witness account. A battle of narratives and counter-narratives ensued, with New Delhi conflicting any report suggesting that the men had been killed within days of capture itself.

India’s Rescue Mission in IS-Controlled Iraq

Meanwhile, India even appointed a special envoy with regional expertise, Suresh Reddy, and dispatched him to Erbil, in Iraqi Kurdistan, to oversee the search. New Delhi was hoping to tap into its old, surviving connections with former president Saddam Hussein’s Ba’athist fighters and generals, many of whom had joined ISIS and taken up prominent roles as ‘mayors’ of towns and cities that ISIS took over from Iraqi military.

Former Ba’athist military leaders such as Azhar al-Obeidi and Ahmed Abd al-Rashid were known to have made good headway within the hierarchy of ISIS, with both being influential in Mosul and Tikrit respectively.

India did manage to successfully evacuate 46 nurses from Tikrit via Erbil, which was made possible due to a variety of factors, including diplomacy and the fact that ISIS releasing nurses gave the terror outfit positive status within Iraq after losing traction within the Sunni population of the country due to its violent tactics.

What Took New Delhi 4 Years to Confirm the Deaths?

Indian construction workers have been a common sight across the Middle East, and Punjabis have often migrated to the region to work both in construction and as truck drivers, plugging labor gaps in an often scarcely populated geography.

The pull to work in war-torn areas is usually mostly economics, even ISIS during its peak (when it commanded geography almost as big as the United Kingdom) was known to be a good paymaster for transporters. Truckers interviewed by researchers had told that ISIS in fact paid more than private contractors of the state, and on time in cash.

However, the regional situation and economic compulsions apart, the larger question that remains unanswered is why did New Delhi take four years to confirm the loss of the 39 Indians? Why was Masih’s account rejected, despite corroboration by Bangladeshi workers who were stuck in the same situation? Why did they drag the families’ hopes for this long only to ‘officially’ announce what had been known all along?

No logical explanation, other than the fact that the government wanted DNA proof, can be seen here.

Despite the need for DNA confirmation, what about those government’s sources who were confidently telling New Delhi that the 39 workers are not confirmed dead? The government often paraded the families on national television, giving them hope and being bullish towards the fact that their intelligence suggests the 39 are or may be alive.

India’s Handling of ISIS Throws Up More Questions than Answers

The issue of corroboration of proof is bureaucratically understandable, however, such strategies work better when the abduction of a single person takes place. Groups of people in a war zone, specifically for a non-state militant actor, are liabilities unless they solve specific purposes, such as nurses to treat the wounded or demanding ransoms.

Taking care of them, and more specifically moving them, poses grave risk of detection for a group. Nonetheless, one thing is for certain, the way New Delhi handled the issue, particularly with the families of the lost, raises many more questions than answers.

This article originally appeared in The Quint.

Mattis Tells Saudi Crown Prince Urgent Need To End Yemen’s War

$
0
0

US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis on Thursday said Saudi Arabia was “part of the solution” in Yemen, where the Saudis are leading a US-supported military campaign against Houthi rebels.

Mattis told reporters at the Pentagon on Thursday that there was an urgent need to find a political solution to Yemen’s war, as he voiced hope for a UN special envoy’s peace efforts.

“We must also reinvigorate urgent efforts to seek a peaceful resolution to the civil war in Yemen and we support you in this regard,” Mattis said, offering his firm backing to Riyadh.

Asked by reporters at the start of his talks whether he would raise the issue of civilian casualties in Yemen, Mattis said: “We are going to end this war, that is the bottom line. And we are going to end it on positive terms for the people of Yemen but also security for the nations in the peninsula.”

Mattis spoke at the start of a Pentagon meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is on a three-week US visit.

Earlier this week the Senate debated and then shelved a resolution calling for an end to US support for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen. Mattis had opposed the measure, saying it would be counterproductive by increasing civilian casualties, jeopardizing counterterrorism cooperation and emboldening Iran to increase its support for Houthi rebels.

During the photo-taking session with the crown prince, Mattis was asked by a reporter whether he would raise concerns about casualties in Yemen. Mattis said the US is working with the UN’s new envoy to Yemen, Martin Griffiths of Britain, in pursuit of a political solution to the civil war in Yemen.

“We believe that Saudi Arabia is part of the solution,” Mattis said. He added: “They have stood by the United Nations-recognized government, and we are going to end this war. That is the bottom line. And we are going to end it on positive terms for the people of Yemen but also security for the nations in the peninsula.”

In prepared remarks, Mattis said the US has a strong relationship with Saudi Arabia in fighting extremists and deterring malign activities by Iran. He said a political settlement in Yemen would protect Saudi Arabia and deny safe haven to terrorists.

“Your significant amounts of humanitarian aid is critical to help the innocent caught up in this conflict (and) we applaud you for that,” he told the crown prince.

The Saudi Press Agency reported that the meeting between the Saudi Crown Prince and Mattis discussed their countries’ strategic cooperation and means to improve bilateral relations according to Saudi vision 2030. The two leaders also reviewed their efforts to combat terrorism and extremism, as well as ways to improve secutrity and stability in the Middle East region.

Trump Names Bolton To Replace McMaster As Security Adviser

$
0
0

(RFE/RL) — U.S. President Donald Trump is replacing national security adviser H.R. McMaster with former UN Ambassador John Bolton, an outspoken hawk who has advocated using military force against Iran and North Korea.

Trump tweeted on March 22 that McMaster has done “an outstanding job and will always remain my friend.” He said Bolton will take over April 9.

Trump has clashed with McMaster, a respected three-star general, and talk that McMaster would leave the administration picked up last week following Trump’s dramatic ouster of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

McMaster, 55, said he plans to retire from public life this summer.

Bolton, 69, has served as a hawkish voice in Republican foreign policy circles for decades. Among his more controversial stands, he has advocated for pre-emptive military strikes against North Korea and war with Iran.

Bolton met with Trump and White House Chief of Staff John Kelly in early March to discuss North Korea and Iran. He was a leading advocate for the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq.

Bolton has also advocated getting rid of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, a pact Trump has also heavily criticized.

Bolton served in the administrations of Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush.

Tension between Trump and McMaster had grown increasingly public. Last month, Trump took issue with McMaster’s characterization of alleged Russian meddling in the 2016 election after the national security adviser told the Munich Security Summit that interference was beyond dispute.

“General McMaster forgot to say that the results of the 2016 election were not impacted or changed by the Russians,” Trump tweeted.

Last summer, McMaster was the target of an attack campaign by conservative groups which accused him of not being tough enough on Iran.

US Congress Says Unable To Stop Trump’s JCPOA Withdrawal

$
0
0

Key US lawmakers have predicted that President Donald Trump will pull the United States out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) later this spring.

Although there is an appetite on Capitol Hill and within Trump’s own national security team to save the accord, members of Congress say they lack the immediate legislative options to save it from Trump’s axe, the Daily Beast reported.

The president’s antipathy toward the deal struck by his predecessor is well established, and he has privately vented about a law that requires him to certify every few months that Iran remains in compliance with the terms of the deal.

The next deadline to waive nuclear-related sanctions is May 12. And Trump has hinted, if not outwardly threatened, that he will use that moment to effectively pull the US out of the agreement unless European allies agree to stricter terms.

“There will be no congressional action until there’s a framework (agreed to with the Europeans),” Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN), the chairman of the foreign relations panel, told The Daily Beast. “We’ve let the White House know clearly that the onus is on them to negotiate a framework. If they get a framework done, then we’ll look at domestic language.”

The retiring senator predicted that the European partners—consisting of France, Germany and the United Kingdom—could eventually give up major concessions and move closer to the Trump administration’s position on the deal as the deadline approaches.

In separate comments on Wednesday, a US State Department official said while Washington has had constructive talks about the Iran nuclear deal with Britain, France and Germany, it is also making contingency plans should they fail.

“We have had constructive talks with the Europeans toward a supplemental agreement but I can’t predict whether we will reach an agreement with them or not,” Brian Hook, the State Department policy planning director, told reporters.

“We are engaged in contingency planning because it would not be responsible not to,” said Hook, the lead US negotiator in the talks with the Europeans. “We are kind of dual tracking this.”

Hook held talks with the three European powers in Berlin on Thursday followed by wider talks on Friday in Vienna with a group that tracks the implementation of the nuclear deal, according to Reuters.

The nuclear agreement between Iran and the Group 5+1 (Russia, China, the US, Britain, France and Germany) was reached in July 2015 and came into force in January 2016.

Ever since the deal took effect, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed Iran’s compliance with the JCPOA in all quarterly reports.

Drug Or Duplicate?

$
0
0

Imagine holding two different medications in your hands, one being the original, the other one being a counterfeit. Both appear exactly the same. Is there any way for you to distinguish them? The answer is: yes. A quantum cascade laser (QCL) has the ability to identify substances in a split second.

The technology behind the innovation is called backscattering spectroscopy. It exploits the fact that every chemical substance absorbs an individual amount of infrared light.

“If we irradiate a substance with a specific light source, we receive a very characteristic backscattering signa,” said Dr. Ralf Ostendorf, head of the Business Unit “Semiconductor Lasers” at the Fraunhofer Institute for Applied Solid State Physics IAF in Freiburg.

The mid-infrared spectrum (MIR) is particularly well-suited for an unambiguous identification of substances. Within this spectrum, light has a wavelength of three to 12 micrometers. If molecules are irradiated with this light, they show a characteristic absorption behavior which the QCL measuring system picks up on.

In only a few milliseconds the QCL can be adjusted to individual absorption lines that lie within a broad spectral band. This means that a great deal of information about a substance’s absorption behavior can be detected in a very short time.

“Very precise conclusions are available due to the laser’s high spectral brilliance and the fast wavelength tuning – similar to a human fingerprint,” said Ostendorf.

The developed QCL consequently manages to detect even the smallest amounts of a particular substance in real time, which is a significant improvement compared to previous systems.

A mobile measuring system for in-line process monitoring

The miniaturized quantum cascade lasers are being developed by scientists at the Fraunhofer IAF together with colleagues from the Fraunhofer Institute for Photonic Microsystems IPMS in Dresden. Fraunhofer IAF is working on the laser chips while Fraunhofer IPMS is responsible for an integrated MOEMS scanning grating. The MOEMS scanner allows continuous tuning of the wavelength and thus allows a very fast signal response.

Currently, the project team is making the lasers fit for application in the pharmaceutical industry. The researchers have already used their method to reliably determine the active ingredients of everyday pills for headaches and fever in a laboratory environment. Future application scenarios foresee the technology in the mass production of pharmaceuticals as a real-time control. Already during the production process defective medical preparations could be sorted out.

“Not only is it possible to quickly sort out faulty margins, but also to reliably detect drug plagiarism. A time-consuming and expensive manual control in the laboratory would be obsolete,” Ostendorf said.

The method was first used in security technology: In the EU project “CHEQUERS”, Fraunhofer IAF developed a portable detector based on quantum cascade lasers which can detect explosive or toxic substances from a safe distance. The Freiburg researchers are currently contacting industry partners in order to further develop their approach. Ostendorf outlines future challenges: “Initial talks have already taken place. In a next step, we want to use our sensors to detect individual substances in a drug mixture.”

British PM Theresa May Warns European Leaders Of Russia’s ‘Threat’

$
0
0

British Prime Minister Theresa May will warn European leaders of Russia’s “threat” to the EU member states after accusing Moscow of using the Novichok nerve agent on the UK soil.

The premier will make the statement over dinner in the EU de facto capital Brussels on Thursday, according to an advance briefing from the UK government released Wednesday.

May has accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of ordering an attack on former Russian agent Segei Skripal in Salisbury earlier this month.

The prime minister will say that the attack was “an indiscriminate and reckless act against the United Kingdom” amounting to “attempted murder using an illegal chemical weapon that we know Russia possesses.”

“The Russian threat does not respect borders, and as such we are all at risk,” she will say. “We want to work with our EU allies to uphold and protect the international rules-based order, to hold Russia to account for this flagrant breach of international laws, to ensure that such a heinous crime is never repeated, to protect our shared security in the face of the long-term challenge that Russia poses.”

Moscow, meanwhile, maintains that either the British authorities are “unable to protect” their territory from a terrorist attack or “staged the attack themselves,” according to Vladimir Yermakov, the head of the Russian foreign ministry’s non-proliferation department.

On March 7, British authorities announced that Sergei Skripal, 66, and his 33-year-old daughter, Yulia, had been hospitalized after being found unconscious on a bench outside a shopping center in Salisbury.

British police attributed the critical illness of the two to a nerve agent developed by the former Soviet Union, and the British premier accused Moscow of being responsible.

Original source


Space Thunder And Lightning Hunting Mission Ready For Launch From Cape Canaveral

$
0
0

Space experts have recently been working long hours in Florida to get the ASIM project completely ready for the scheduled launch into space on 2 April 22:30 Central European Time (CET). The launch will take place from Cape Canaveral at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

The instrument package that constitutes ASIM (the Atmosphere Space Interactions Monitor) has been successfully installed in the Dragon module which will carry the equipment up to the International Space Station, ISS, on top of a Falcon 9 rocket from the private company SpaceX.

Close international collaboration

The mission is an international project realized through the European Space Agency (ESA). The Danish company Terma has the technical leadership while The National Space Institute of the Danish Technical University (DTU Space) provides the scientific leadership.

“The ASIM project is the largest Danish Space project ever developed. For Terma, it has been a very exciting journey to lead an international team of scientists and engineers who in the past 10 years have been involved in the development. We are now ready to launch the observatory to the space station”, said Carsten Jørgensen, Terma Senior Vice President, Space.

ASIM is an observatory, which will be installed outside on the ISS on the European Columbus module. ASIM will be used to study high-altitude electrical discharges in the stratosphere and mesosphere above severe thunderstorms, the so-called red sprites, blue jets, haloes, and elves, and monitor X-ray and Gamma-ray flashes. A knowledge which can be used to identify climate processes in the atmosphere and improve climate models for the Earth.

“We are looking forward to work with the scientific data from ASIM,” said DTU Space director Kristian Pedersen.

Space crafts can be reused

Dragon is a free-flying spacecraft that brings supplies and equipment to ISS. It is located at the top of the 70 meter high Falcon 9 rocket.

The launch mission that ASIM is part of is called SpaceX CRS-14. Both the Falcon 9 rocket and the Dragon module can return to the Earth and be reused by SpaceX.

ASIM is now positioned in the open cargo area of the module together with two other experiments to be launched to ISS. Getting ASIM positioned in the Dragon module has been carried out in close collaboration between Terma, NASA, SpaceX and ESA.

Chief Consultant at DTU Space Per Lundahl Thomsen who also works on the ASIM project looks forward to the launch of ASIM and to the new knowledge the mission will provide.

“It has taken more than ten years to implement this amazing idea, and now we have almost reached the goal. More than 100 dedicated experts from Denmark, Norway, Poland, Spain, Italy, The Netherlands, Canada, and the United States have participated in the project. We look forward to reaping the scientific benefits of all the work that has been put into development, design, and testing of ASIM,” he said.

Following the plan, the Dragon spacecraft will be joined with the Falcon 9 launcher about four days before the launch on 2 April at 22:30 CET. However, weather, technique, and security challenges may lead to changes to the schedule, but the uncertainty will decrease as the time of launch approaches.

The Danish Ministry of Higher Education and Science has supported the ASIM project through different funding initiatives through ESA.

Sen. Merkley Secures Funding To Block Opioids Entering US

$
0
0

U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley (Oregon-Dem) on Wednesday announced billions of new dollars in Congress’ final spending bill to combat the opioid crisis that has reached every corner of Oregon and the nation.

“The opioid crisis will require a multi-pronged approach, and one important piece is cutting off the flow of narcotics into the country,” Merkley said. “I have heard heart-wrenching stories from Oregonians who have lost loved ones after a prescription for an injury or treatment turned into an addiction. Getting the FDA the resources to police the medications coming in will save lives.”

As the top Democrat on the Agriculture and Rural Development Subcommittee, Merkley helped write the portion of the massive 2018 spending bill funding the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The bill provides $94 million to be used by the FDA to step up its efforts to combat the opioid epidemic by investing in better identifying and targeting firms and organizations importing into the U.S.; increasing the staff inspecting packages and the number of packages being inspected; increasing criminal investigation resources; upgrading equipment to screen imported products; and upgrading a forensic laboratory to accommodate increased activity.

In addition, Merkley has successfully pushed for over $2.6 billion in increased funding for treatment, prevention and research programs within the Department of Health and Human Services to combat the opioid crisis.

Funding For Database To Index Ancient Egyptian Texts

$
0
0

Heidelberg University has been awarded funding from the German Research Foundation (DFG) for a database project to index and decipher documents from ancient Egypt. Demotic language texts originating between the 7th century BC and the 5th century AD are to be made available for research via open access publication.

The texts, some of which are still unpublished, range from legal and administrative documents to academic and religious records. The “Demotic Palaeographical Database Project” directed by Prof. Dr Joachim Quack will be funded for a period of up to seven years. DFG funding of nearly one million euros has been earmarked for the first three years. The work at the Institute for Egyptology at Ruperto Carola is scheduled to begin in May 2018.

Demotic is an ancient Egyptian language and script that was used for over 1,000 years throughout various cultural phases of ancient Egypt – from the Late Egyptian to the Greco-Roman epoch.

“To build a content-based index of Demotic texts, we are developing a digital instrument that will allow us, for the first time, to also capture and process the visual aspects of the text media, mainly papyrus,” explained Prof. Quack, Director of the Institute for Egyptology.

The database will have a number of analysis and search functions to help researchers more easily investigate written Demotic artefacts. The project will also create a systematic catalogue of the full set of Demotic characters to build an up-to-date glossary, which is critical for deciphering and publishing Demotic texts.

“Most of the written records are available only as fragments, so publication of these documents has been difficult until now. And because they were acquired on the antiquities market, the individual fragments that make up a single text are often spread across different collections,” said Prof. Quack.

The database will make identifying fragments that belong together easier by analysing the individual handwriting, content and formal characteristics. The Heidelberg Egyptologist adds that indexing Demotic sources is not only important for studying the history of language development from the Egyptian to the Coptic.

The texts also offer vital information on the political, social, bureaucratic, religious and cultural development of Egypt as well as intercultural exchange with Greece, Rome and other ancient Mediterranean cultures. The study of this source material is therefore also extremely important for allied fields of study, such as history.

Robert Reich: The Buyback Boondoggle Is Beggaring America – OpEd

$
0
0

Trump and Republicans branded their huge corporate tax cut as a way to make American corporations more profitable so they’d invest in more and better jobs.

But they’re buying back their stock instead. Now that the new corporate tax cut is pumping up profits, buybacks are on track to hit a record $800 billion this year.

For years, corporations have spent most of their profits on buying back their own shares of stock, instead of increasing the wages of their employees, whose hard work creates these profits.

Stock buybacks should be illegal, as they were before 1983.

Stock buybacks are artificial efforts to interfere in the so-called “free market” to prop up stock prices. Because they create an artificial demand, they force stock prices above their natural level. With fewer shares in circulation, each remaining share is worth more.

Buybacks don’t create more or better jobs. Money spent on buybacks isn’t invested in new equipment, or research and development, or factories, or wages. It doesn’t build a company. Buybacks don’t grow the American economy.

So why are buybacks so popular with Corporate CEOs?

Because a bigger and bigger portion of CEO pay has been in stocks and stock options, rather than cash. So when share prices go up, executives reap a bonanza. The value of their pay from previous years also rises – in what amounts to a retroactive (and off the books) pay increase on top of their already outrageous compensation.

Buybacks were illegal until Ronald Reagan made them legal in 1982, just about the same time wages stopped rising for most Americans. Before then, a bigger percentage corporate profits went into increasing workers’ wages.

But since corporations were already using their profits for stock buybacks, there is no reason to believe they’ll use their tax windfall on anything other than more stock buybacks.

Let’s not compound the error. Make stock buybacks illegal, as they were before 1982.

Facebook, Cambridge Analytica And Surveillance Capitalism – OpEd

$
0
0

Whether it creeps into politics, marketing, or simple profiling, the nature of surveillance as totality has been affirmed by certain events this decade.  The Edward Snowden disclosures of 2013 demonstrated the complicity and collusion between Silicon Valley and the technological stewards of the national security state.

It took the election of Donald J. Trump in 2016 to move the issue of social media profiling, sharing and targeting of information, to another level.  Not only could companies such as Facebook monetise their user base; those details could, in turn, be plundered, mined and exploited for political purpose.

As a social phenomenon, Facebook could not help but become a juggernaut inimical to the private sphere it has so comprehensively colonised.  “Facebook in particular,” claimed WikiLeaks’ Julian Assange in May 2011, “is the most appalling spy machine that has ever been invented.” It furnished “the world’s most comprehensive database about people, their relationships, their names, their addresses, their locations, their communications with each other, and their relatives, all sitting within the United States, all accessible to US intelligence.”

Now, the unsurprising role played by Cambridge Analytica with its Facebook accessory to politicise and monetise data reveals the tenuous ground notions of privacy rest upon.  Outrage and uproar has been registered, much of it to do with a simple fact: data was used to manipulate, massage and deliver a result to Trump – or so goes the presumption.  An instructive lesson here would be to run the counter-factual: had Hillary Clinton won, would this seething discontent be quite so enthusiastic?

Be that as it may, the spoliations of Cambridge Analytica are embedded in a broader undertaking: the evisceration of privacy, and the generation of user profiles gathered through modern humanity’s most remarkable surveillance machine.  The clincher here is the link with Facebook, though the company insists that it “received data from a contractor, which we deleted after Facebook told us the contractor had breached their terms of service.”

Both Facebook and Cambridge Analytica have attempted to isolate and distance that particular contractor, a certain Aleksandr Kogan, the Cambridge University researcher whose personality quiz app “thisisyourdigitallife” farmed the personal data of some 50 million users who were then micro-targeted for reasons of political advertising.

The sinister genius behind this was the ballooning from the initial downloads – some 270,000 people – who exchanged personal data on their friends including their “likes” for personality predictions.  A broader data set of profiles were thereby created and quarried.

Kogan claims to have been approached by Cambridge Analytica, rather than the other way around, regarding “terms of usage of Facebook data”.  He was also reassured that the scheme was legal, being “commercial” in nature and typical of the way “tens of thousands of apps” were using social media data.  But it took Cambridge Analytica’s whistleblower, Christopher Wylie, to reveal that data obtained via Kogan’s app was, in fact, used for micro-targeting the US electorate in breach of privacy protocols.

Mark Zuckerberg’s response has entailed vigorous hand washing.  In 2015, he claims that Facebook had learned that Cambridge Analytica shared data from Kogan’s app.  “It is against our policies for developers to share data without other people’s consent, so we immediately banned Kogan’s app from our platform”. Certifications were duly provided that such data had been deleted, though the crew at Facebook evidently took these at unverified face value.  Not so, as matters transpired, leading to the claim that trust had not only been breached between Facebook, Kogan and Cambridge Analytica, but with the users themselves.

Facebook, for its part, has been modestly contrite.  “We have a responsibility to protect your data,” went Zuckerberg in a statement, “and if we can’t then we don’t deserve to serve you.”  His posted statement attempts to water down the fuss.  Data protections – most of them, at least – were already being put in place. He described the limitations placed on the accessing of user information by data apps connected to Facebook friends.

The networked sphere, as it is termed in with jargon-heavy fondness by some academics, has seen the accumulation of data all set and readied for the “information civilisation”.  Google’s chief economist Hal Varian has been singled out for special interest, keen on what he terms, in truly benign fashion, “computer-mediated transactions”.  These entail “data extraction and analysis,” various “new contractual forms” arising from “better monitoring”, “personalisation and customisation” and “continuous experiments”.

Such are the vagaries of the information age. As a user of such freely provided services, users are before a naked confessional, conceding and surrendering identities to third parties with Faustian ease.  This surrender has its invidious by products, supplying intelligence and security services accessible data.

Cambridge Analytica, for its part, sets itself up as an apotheosis of the information civilisation, a benevolent, professionally driven information hitman. “Data drives all we do,” it boldly states to potential clients.  “Cambridge Analytica uses data to change audience behaviour.”

This sounds rather different to the company’s stance on Saturday, when it claimed that, “Advertising is not coercive; people are smarter than that.”  With cold show insistence, it insisted that, “This isn’t a spy movie.”

Two services are provided suggesting that people are not, in the minds of its bewitchers, that intelligent: the arm of data-driven marketing designed to “improve your brand’s marketing effectiveness by changing consumer behaviour” and that of “data-driven campaigns” where “greater influence” is attained through “knowing your electorate better”.

On the latter, it is boastful, claiming to have supported over 100 campaigns across five continents. “Within the United States alone, we have played a pivotal role in winning presidential races as well as congressional and state elections.”

CA has donned its combat fatigues to battle critics.  Its Board of Directors has suspended CEO Alexander Nix, claiming that “recent comments secretly recorded by Channel 4 and other allegations do not represent the values or operations of the firm and his suspension reflects the seriousness with which we view this violation.”

The comments in question, caught in an undercover video, show Nix offering a range of services to the Channel 4 undercover reporter: Ukrainian sex workers posing as “honey-traps”; a video evidencing corruption that might be uploaded to the Internet; and operations with former spies. “We can set up fake IDs and Web sites, we can be students doing research projects attached to a university; we can be tourists.”

The company has also attempted to debunk a set of what it sees as flourishing myths.  It has not, for instance, been uncooperative with the UK’s data regulator, the Information Commissioner’s Office, having engaged it since February 2017.  It rejects notions that it peddles fake news. “Fake news is a serious concern for all of us in the marketing industry.”  (Nix’s cavalier advertising to prospective clients suggests otherwise.)

In other respects, Cambridge Analytica also rejected using Facebook data in its political models, despite having obtained that same data.  “We ran a standard political data science program with the same kind of political preference models used by other presidential campaigns.”  Nor did it use personality profiles for the 2016 US Presidential election. Having only hopped on board in June, “we focused on the core elements of a core political data science program.”

The company’s weasel wording has certainly been extensive.  Nix has done much to meander, dodge and contradict.  On the one hand, he would like to take credit for the company’s product – the swaying of a US election.  But in doing so, it did not use “psychographic” profiles.

Surveillance capitalism is the rope which binds the actors of this latest drama in the annals of privacy’s demise.  There are discussions that political data mining designed to manipulate and sway elections be considered in the same way political donations are.  But in the US, where money and political information are oft confused as matters of freedom, movement on this will be slow.  The likes of Cambridge Analytica and similar information mercenaries will continue thriving.

Viewing all 73702 articles
Browse latest View live




Latest Images