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Philippines Catches 2 Suspected Militants Wanted For Mass Abduction From Malaysian Resort

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By Jeoffrey Maitem

Philippine troops have captured two suspected Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) militants who were a part of a faction involved in a daring cross-border abduction of foreign tourists from a Malaysian resort 18 years ago, police said Thursday.

The suspects, identified as Dani Suraidi and Amdak Jumah, went with government forces willingly when they were picked up near the southern city of Zamboanga on Tuesday, regional police director Chief Supt. Billy Beltran said.

Suraidi had a standing arrest warrant for kidnapping and serious illegal detention with ransom in connection with an ASG raid in 2000 on Sipadan, an island resort in Sabah, a state in eastern Malaysia that lies off the southern Philippines.

“We have been looking for him for so long. Suraidi belongs to the group of slain Abu Sayyaf senior leader Albader Parad who then led the abduction,” Beltran said.

Armed with assault rifles and rocket-propelled grenades, the ASG militants went to Sipadan and seized 21 hostages, including three Germans, two French nationals, two South Africans, a Lebanese national and two Finn holiday makers. They also took nine Malaysian and two Filipino resort workers.

Parad later took the hostages to the jungles of Jolo island, at the southern tip of the Philippines, where he transferred them to a larger ASG faction led by Ghalib Andang.

The kidnapping thrust the little-known but brutal ASG to international infamy. The government of then-President Joseph Estrada sought help from the Libya, who helped broker the captives’ release.

The hostages were freed one after the other after months in captivity, allegedly after payments of huge ransoms.

Police chief Beltran said Suraidi was a trusted man of another ASG leader Alhabsy Misaya, who was killed by the armed forces in a clash last year in Parang town on Jolo island.

Last week, another ASG member allegedly involved in the Sipadan hostage crisis was killed during a police operation in Tabuan Lasa town, in nearby Basilan province.

Mobin Kulin (alias Mulawin), was being arrested by authorities but resisted violently, provincial police commander Senior Supt. Nickson Muksan said.

“He fought back and was killed by arresting police officers,” Muksan said.

Numbering around 400 to 500 members, ASG, or Bearers of the Sword, was founded in the 1990s by an Afghan-trained Islamic firebrand, Abdurajak Abubakar Janjalani.

He was killed in an encounter in the late 1990s, and was replaced by his brother, Khadaffy Janjalani who went on to lead the group in carrying out some of the worst terrorist attacks in the Philippines, including bombings, extortions, random attacks and kidnappings.

The military considers the ASG as a terrorist organization bereft of any ideological leanings. In the past two years, it has beheaded a German yacht owner and two Canadians, whom its members had kidnapped separately in the south, for failing to pay ransoms.

One of the group’s leaders, Isnilon Hapilon, later branched out to become the de facto leader in the country of the extremist group Islamic State. Last May, he led a siege in the southern city of Marawi that precipitated a five-month battle with the Philippine military. About 1,200 people, mostly militants, were killed in the fighting.

Hapilon and several leaders of the rebellion were killed in October at the end of the battle.

Mark Navales in Cotabato City contributed to this report.


Catholic Group Critical Of Trump Plan Of Death Penalty For Drug Dealers

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By Maggie Maslak

The Trump administration’s call for increased use of the death penalty in drug-related crimes will not address the root causes of the opioid crisis, one Catholic advocate said Thursday.

“To suggest the use of the death penalty as a way to address the opioid epidemic ignores what we know to be true: the death penalty is a flawed and broken system of justice,” said Krisanne Murphy, managing director of the Catholic Mobilizing Network, which opposes the death penalty and promotes restorative justice.

“The opioid epidemic is a public health crisis and it needs to be addressed as such. Suggesting the death penalty as a solution to the opioid epidemic is simply a distraction from dealing with the real problem,” she told CNA.

On Tuesday, the Trump administration released a memo encouraging federal prosecutors to pursue the death penalty for drug traffickers in certain cases.

“The opioid epidemic has inflicted an unprecedented toll of addiction, suffering and death on communities throughout our nation,” said Attorney General Jeff Sessions in a March 20 memo.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, drug overdoses claimed the lives of more than 64,000 Americans in 2016, and remains the leading cause of death for Americans under the age of 50.

“To combat this deadly epidemic, federal prosecutors must consider every lawful tool at their disposal…this should also include the pursuit of capital punishment in appropriate cases,” Sessions continued, saying “we cannot continue with business as usual.”

Sessions listed several existing statutes which could warrant capital punishment, including racketeering activities, the use of a firearm resulting in death during a drug trafficking crime, murder in a continuing criminal enterprise, and dealing in extremely large quantities of drugs.

The push for tougher penalties is part of a three-pronged plan to fight the drug abuse crisis within the nation. The plan also includes efforts to reduce demand for and over-prescription of opioids and cut off the supply of illegal drugs, as well as efforts to boost access to treatment for those affected by the opioid epidemic.

While the memo released by Sessions was met with controversy, it does not change what is currently allowable under federal law, Murphy said.

“The suggestion the Trump Administration put forth is nothing new and only reiterated what is currently on the books,” she explained.

Particularly controversial is the recommendation for prosecutors to pursue the death penalty for “dealing in extremely large quantities of drugs.” While federal statutes allow for capital punishment in such cases, the punishment has never before been pursued on these grounds, a Justice Department official said, according to CNN.

Robert Dunham, executive director of the Death Penalty Information Center, told CNA that the “U.S. Supreme Court has categorically stated that the death penalty is unconstitutional for crimes against individuals that do not result in death. That is unequivocal.”

He pointed to a 1977 case, “Coker vs. Georgia,” where the U.S. Supreme Court ruled the death penalty unconstitutional for a rape that did not result in death, and similarly overruled capital punishment in another Georgia kidnapping case.

“Prosecutors are to take a look at the law, which is the same as it has been, and pursue the death penalty when it’s appropriate,” he continued.

However, he noted the distinction between crimes against an individual versus crimes against the state.

Typically, Dunham said, crimes against an individual would be lower-level drug dealers, in which case, the U.S. Supreme Court has made it clear that capital punishment would be unconstitutional if it is not a crime resulting in death.

In cases of higher-level drug dealing, which is typically international, most treaties and international law will not extradite an individual who may face the death penalty.

“The death penalty is clearly unconstitutional in respect to small-dealers, and it is ineffective with respect to international drug trafficking because no country will turn over any drug trafficker to the United States who may face the death penalty,” Dunham said.

As a result, he does not believe the attorney general’s memo will open the door to capital punishment being used for more non-murder crimes.

Ultimately, Murphy was critical of the use of the death penalty as an effective way to combat the growing opioid crisis within the U.S.

Instead, she suggested transferring the funds which would have been used for the death penalty toward supporting healthcare professionals who provide support and treatment for individuals impacted by drug use.

“Those suffering from addicting, their families, and their communities need healing and restoration,” Murphy noted, saying, “the death penalty does not provide either.”

“Solutions to any instance of harm must be restorative and allow for the flourishing of all people. We must seek resources for prevention, rehabilitation and treatment – not retribution and vengeance.”

Bangladesh: Political Polarization And Resurgence Of Terrorism – Analysis

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By Krishna Kumar Saha*

On 27 February 2018, the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added ‘ISIS-Bangladesh’ to its sanctions list for global terrorism. Following months of denial from Dhaka about the presence of the Islamic State (IS) in Bangladesh, this sanction creates a new, contravening understanding. Although the terrorist groups that were active in the country in the recent past are now struggling to regain ground due to the Sheikh Hasina government’s aggressive counter-terrorist response, the intensifying political polarisation between the ruling and the opposition factions will create fertile conditions for the resurgence of IS.

Terrorism in Bangladesh: Past to Present

Terrorism in Bangladesh dates back to the 1980s when close to three thousand Bangladeshis joined the US and Saudi-sponsored anti-Soviet offensives in Afghanistan. Three war veterans from these Afghan wars formed the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B) in 1992, which sought to establish an Islamic state in Bangladesh through its subversive activities till 2001. After 9/11, HuJI-B and similar groups became more active. Three groups remain, which are variously active and inactive: al Qaeda-affiliated Ansarul-Islam; IS-affiliated Neo-Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen (neo-JMB), and as per current understanding, an independent strain of IS.

These groups have emerged and re-emerged under different circumstances, largely taking advantage of political uncertainty or unrest. Between 2006-08, the military-backed caretaker government increased the state’s counter-terrorism response by, amongst others, providing training to law enforcers and propagating anti-militancy messages in the mainstream media. All of these pushed the terrorist presence back significantly.

After assuming power in 2009, the ruling Awami League (AL) began prosecuting the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamat-e-Islami (JeI) leaders for war crimes committed during the 1971 Liberation War. Eventually, the Supreme Cour tbanned the JeI from contesting parliamentary elections in 2015 on the grounds that an Islamist party running in the polls would violate the secular constitution. With the law enforcement agencies directing their resources towards indicting AL’s political opponents, the terrorists began to regain lost ground.

In addition, 50 to 250 military officers have been sacked since 2009 due to their involvement in terrorist activities, attempted coups, or mutinies. A Bangladeshi army major, Syed Mohammad Ziaul Haque, became the military commander of a terrorist group. In 2015, several young men were arrested from a former army officer’s house for alleged connections with IS. Official military training manuals and military-issued uniforms and ammunition were found in terrorist hideouts in Chittagong during the raid.

Since the Dhaka Holey Bakery attack in 2016, law enforcement agencies have raided numerous terrorist hideouts in different parts of the country. Most of these operations have focused on killing suspected members of extremist groups rather than bringing them to trial.This was done mostly because the judicial processcan be time-consuming and often, not feasible due to lack of witnesses.

The recent Rohingya crisis also has re-ignited the issue of terrorism in the state’s discourse. A brutal military crackdown by the Myanmar military on the Rohingya community in August 2017, following an attack by local militants on security outposts, has created conditions conducive for terrorist recruitment. This is largely because the majority of the Rohingya population is Muslim and likely open to offering their sympathy to these groups.

Political Polarisation

Today, there is an increasing polarisation of the narrative around the counter-terrorism agenda, wherein the ruling party continues to blame the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its affiliate, JeI, for lending support to terrorism. In some cases, this claim is true. For example, theJeI’s student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir, was once a key source of recruits for JMB. The group’s founder, Shaikh Abdur Rahman, was himself a Shibir member.

However, these groups have their own recruitment methods now. Today, for most militant groups, the internet serves as an effective medium for radicalisation and recruitment. The paltry salaries and low-level training of law enforcement members are creating further challenges to disrupting terrorist recruitment. In addition, the ruling party’s political crackdowns, the Rohingya influx, strong transitional and regional networks of terrorists, and unemployment may lead to fresh recruitment drives for these groups.

Due to the allegedly politically motivated corruption trials of major party leaders – including party chief, Khaleda Zia – the BNP has been marginalised. On the other hand, the JeI has been paralysed by the war crimes tribunal through a ban on electoral participation. Both of them are major political parties with grassroots support. In addition, AL is now the courting Hefazat-e-Islam (HeI)- a conservative faction more hardline than the JeI – to counter JeI. HeI is opposed to women in workplaces, secular democracies, and non-Muslim officials in major government posts.

It is important for the current government to reconcile with the mainstream opposition factions since bipolarity dominates Bangladesh’s political arena. BNP’s marginalisation will create a political vacuum which may be taken advantage of by terrorist groups, leading to the rise of a new generation of potentially more dangerous elements with apparent links to groups such as IS. This is alarming for a secular country like Bangladesh, and above all, the entire South Asian region.

*Krishna Kumar Saha looks at how polarisation between the ruling and the opposition factions will create fertile conditions for the resurgence of IS

China: Cross Removal ‘Kingpin’ Gets Key Post

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The man believed to be the key person leading cross removals in Zhejiang province has been promoted in what observers regard as a setback for religious freedom in China.

Xia Baolong has been elected as vice-chairman and secretary-general of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CCPPC).

From 2002 to 2007, when President Xi Jinping was in charge of Zhejiang, Xia was Xi’s trustworthy subordinate and a member of “Xi’s Troop” (Xi Jia Jun).

After being appointed as Zhejiang provincial party committee secretary in 2013, Xia was thought to be behind the forcible removal of 1,700 crosses from Catholic and Protestant churches and church demolitions that triggered bloodshed.

It had been rumored that Xia would be promoted to a more important post in Beijing, but in April 2017 he was instead transferred to the insignificant post of deputy director of the environment and resources protection committee under the National People’s Congress.

As doubts grew about the relationship between Xi and Xia, the latter received his double promotion at the 13th CPPCC on March 14 in Beijing. The position of secretary-general is commonly known as the “CPPCC’s steward” and carries real power.

Sang Pu, a regime critic in Hong Kong, told ucanews.com that Xia’s promotion indicates that suppression of Christianity by the Communist Party and Xi will continue.

“After Xia was transferred to an idle post, it was speculated that forcible cross removal would stop in Zhejiang. However, cross removal never stopped in the province and other provinces, which reflects there is no change in nature from the central government to the local authorities on the suppression of religions,”Sang said.

To analyze whether religious persecution is relaxing, one should not just look at officials who directly handle suppression but also at the central government to see if it has restrained its oppression, he said.

“The central government has never changed its entire policy, its hatred of religions and its mentality to eliminate religions,” Sang said.

He cited Wang Qishan as an example of how a dictator can manipulate his bureaucrats. Wang, who once served as secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection but later was given an idle post, was also suddenly elected as vice-president with a non-limited term of office.

“Before giving an important job to them, he must first take away their former official position, make them fear and not know what to do, and then look at their loyalty. They would be offered the higher position after they pass the test — the tactic used by an emperor to manipulate his bureaucrats,” Sang said.

Professor Ying Fuk-tsang, director of the divinity school of Chung Chi College at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, told ucanews.com that Xia’s role in cross removal was unquestionable and his promotion reflected Xi’s affirmation of what he was doing.

“Though Xia’s post now will not have a direct influence on religious policy, the CPPCC as a united front institution is governed by someone who is hostile to Christianity. It is unavoidable to regard this as a setback,” he said.

China Announces Retaliatory Tariffs On $3 Billion Of US Goods

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Beijing has announced a series of measures that it plans to implement as a response to President Trump’s new import tariffs, in an escalating trade war between the US and China.

Despite repeated warnings from Beijing, on Thursday Donald Trump instructed US Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer to levy tariffs on at least $50 billion of Chinese imports, accusing it of stealing American technology. The USTR was given 15 days to propose a list of products that will be targeted.

China immediately hit back, announcing that it plans to impose tariffs on US goods, which, last year, had an import value of $3 billion. China’s commerce ministry also threatened to take legal action against the US through the World Trade Organization “to maintain the stability of global trading rules,” hoping that a full-blown trade war can be avoided through dialogue.

“We intend to impose tariffs on certain US imports to balance out the losses caused to Chinese interests by the US tariffs on imported steel and aluminum,” the ministry said, according to Reuters.

“China hopes the United States will pull back from the brink, make prudent decisions, and avoid dragging bilateral trade relations to a dangerous place,” the ministry added.

“If a trade war were initiated by the US, China would fight to the end to defend its own legitimate interests with all necessary measures,” China’s US Embassy said, in a separate statement.

Overall, China’s commerce ministry is contemplating targeting 128 American products. Beijing first wants to impose a 15 percent tariff on American steel pipes, fruit and on wine imports, to a total value of $977 million, before introducing a 25 percent tariff on pork and recycled aluminum imports, worth $1.99 billion.

In the meantime, stock markets plunged on Thursday in a broad sell-off among investors who are fearing an escalation of a trade war between China and the United States. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sunk 2.93 percent (723.43 points), the its lowest closing value since February 8. The S&P 500 Index plunged 2.52 percent (68.24 points) at the close of trading on Thursday, marking its lowest level since February 9. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei tumbled more than 3 percent on Friday, to its lowest level since October 12.

Trump To Hold Off Steel Tariffs For EU, Six Other Countries

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(EurActiv) — U.S. President Donald Trump will not apply new steel and aluminium tariffs to the European Union and six other trading partners which are currently negotiating exemptions, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Thursday (22 March).

The news will be welcomed by EU leaders, gathered in Brussels for a 22-23 March summit, where US tariffs were to be high on the agenda.

“The idea that the president has is that, based on a certain set of criteria, some countries should get out,” Lighthizer told a Senate committee hearing.

“There are countries with whom we’re negotiating and the question becomes the obvious one that you think, as a matter of business, how does this work. So what he has decided to do is to pause the imposition of the tariffs with respect to those countries.”

He then listed these as Canada and Mexico, “Europe … Australia … Argentina … Brazil and … (South) Korea”.

Shortly afterwards, Trump signed a presidential memorandum that could impose tariffs on up to $60 billion of imports from China. Under the terms of the memorandum, Trump will target Chinese imports only after a consultation period, a measure that will give industry lobbyists and legislators a chance to water down a proposed target list which runs to 1,300 products.

Trump’s plan to impose 25% tariffs on imports of steel and 10% on imports of aluminium sparked international outcry earlier this month.

European officials were outraged, arguing that the EU is America’s long-standing military alliance with close economic ties and is in no way a threat to national security. Trump had described the dumping of steel and aluminium in the US market as an “assault on our country,” adding that domestic production was vital to national security.

The EU’s Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström was in the US this week for talks on the tariff exemptions, in a bid to avert a trade war.

The European Commission had threatened to retaliate by imposing trade penalties on a long list of American products.

Malmström told the European Parliament last week the Commission was considering three strands of countermeasures, comprising one within the WTO, concerted actions with trade partners, especially those most affected by US tariffs, like Brazil, and a number of immediate safeguard measures that would protect EU jobs.

Parliament unanimously supported her proposals.

The European Union is one of the largest sources of U.S. steel imports. The 28-nation bloc exported 5.3 million metric tons of steel to the U.S. in 2017, second only to Canada.

Carfentanil: World’s Most Dangerous Opioid – Analysis

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Carfentanil, a tranquiliser for large animals, surfaced recently as a street drug in North America. The synthetic opioid can also be weaponised for use against civilians. Authorities worldwide need to intensify screening for the highly dangerous drug at customs and border checkpoints. But is it opioid or would-be chemical weapon?

By Nandhakumar Gunasekaran and Tan Teck Boon*

In late 2017, the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) in the United States issued a warning after carfentanil – an extremely deadly synthetic opioid – appeared on the streets of major US cities. True to its street names ‘drop dead’ and ‘serial killer’, carfentanil has been killing unsuspecting drug users in the US since it surfaced in 2016. What is noteworthy is that the emergence of carfentanil has important public health and security implications.

Used by zoos and veterinarians as a tranquiliser for large animals like rhinoceros, bears and elephants, carfentanil is a synthetic opioid not meant for human consumption. Opioids refer to a class of dangerous drugs that are either natural or synthetic. They include plant-based street drugs like heroin and morphine as well as strong prescription pain medications such as oxycodone and hydrocodone. Carfentanil and its cousin, fentanyl, are man-made substances concocted by chemists in drug laboratories.

Killing Addicts

By inhibiting pain signals from travelling to the brain, opioids not only dull the sensation of pain but also trigger a sense of euphoria. For this reason, opioid drugs like oxycodone and hydrocodone are prescribed for short-term pain relief. Found naturally, morphine (and its derivative, heroin) is many times stronger than oxycodone.

Fentanyl meanwhile, is 50 to 100 times more potent than morphine. Carfentanil, the most potent of all, is 100 times, 2,500 times and 10,000 times more powerful than fentanyl, heroin and morphine respectively.

Since its appearance, carfentanil has already claimed the lives of several hundred unsuspecting drug users in North America. Many of the victims thought that they were just using heroin when they were really injecting street drugs laced with carfentanil. Because carfentanil costs significantly less to produce than heroin, drug dealers can dramatically increase their profits by mixing the two together.

A kilogram of carfentanil purchased for a few thousand dollars can easily turn into a profit of several millions for drug dealers. Besides heroin, there is also mounting evidence that carfentanil is now being added to other street drugs to increase their strength.

A Chemical Weapon?

Carfentanil is more than a deadly substance used to lace street drugs. A mere 0.6 milligrams (0.0006 gram) – roughly the weight of a couple of grains of table salt – is likely enough to kill an adult person; it can, therefore, in theory be turned into a chemical weapon for use against innocent civilians. In other words, a small amount of the deadly substance can be used by terrorist groups and rogue states to kill thousands of people in one go.

It is believed that several countries have tried to weaponise carfentanil. An aerosolised version of it was reportedly used in 2002 by Russian Special Forces to immobilise Chechen rebels holed up in a Moscow theatre. The gas proved so toxic that in addition to immobilising the rebels, it was said to have also killed more than 100 hostages.

An unscented and white powdery substance like table salt, carfentanil can be absorbed through the skin, inhalation and ingestion. For that reason, first responders arriving at any crime scene where the presence of carfentanil is suspected must wear some form of protective clothing like N95 masks, safety goggles and protective gloves to avoid coming into accidental contact with the lethal substance.

Deadly Mail Delivery

A knowledgeable chemist working in a small lab can quite easily produce carfentanil after sourcing for the precursors. The deadly substance is reportedly manufactured in secret drug labs in Asia. In China, for example, illicit drug laboratories evade enforcement authorities by listing fake addresses and using third-parties to conduct transactions that are difficult to trace.

Ordered through the Internet, carfentanil is shipped with the help of express mail services to drug dealers halfway across the world in North America. To avoid detection by customs officials, shipments are normally sent in small packages.

US customs officials have seized close to two kilograms of carfentanil since 2016. With a deadly dose amounting to just 0.6 milligrams, two kilograms of seized carfentanil would be enough to kill more than three million people. Due to carfentanil’s extreme lethality, US customs officials are now required to take extra precautions when screening for the substance.

Combatting Carfentanil

The appearance of carfentanil as a street drug in North America should be a matter of concern for other countries not only because of the danger it poses to drug users but also because it can be weaponised to kill innocent civilians. Stopping carfentanil will be challenging but not impossible.

First of all, authorities around the world need to strengthen detection at their sea, air and land checkpoints for the deadly substance. That means investing in and deploying the kind of detection technology needed to safely spot carfentanil before it can be smuggled into the country. In addition to human traffickers, special attention should also be paid to the mail system since there is evidence that it is being used to traffic the deadly drug.

Secondly, countries where carfentanil is produced also need to crack down on illicit drug labs and ban its illegal export. That would cut off carfentanil at its source and make it more difficult for drug users in other countries to purchase it. In that regard, China’s ban of carfentanil and three similar drugs in March 2017 is a positive development.

Not all countries where carfentanil manufacturing is suspected will ban its illegal export, however. For that reason, international cooperation and pressure are needed to bring these countries into the fight.

Carfentanil has no legitimate human use. Potentially a chemical weapon, it is now being added to street drugs. Authorities worldwide need to work together and act against the extremely lethal opioid before this deadly development spins out of control.

*Nandhakumar Gunasekaran is Senior Analyst in the Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP), S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. Tan Teck Boon is Research Fellow and Coordinator of the STSP.

Considerations On Legal Approach To Dispute Settlement: The Philippine Experience With South China Sea Arbitration – Analysis

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By Edcel John A. Ibarra*

The filing of a case against China was a historic moment in Philippine foreign relations: it was the first time that the Philippines resorted to the international judiciary to settle a political dispute.1 In retrospect, the effort was well worth it, at least from a legal standpoint. On 12 July 2016, three years since filing the case on 22 January 2013, the Philippines secured a favorable ruling which clarified important aspects of the South China Sea disputes. However, the new Philippine administration decided to set aside the Award. Critics blamed President Rodrigo Duterte for not taking advantage of the ruling, but they failed to see the limitations inherent in the legal approach itself. The legal approach denotes the referral of disputes to an international court or tribunal for a binding decision in accordance with international law (Keohane, Moravcsik, and Slaughter 2000, 457). Should the Philippines consider using it again to settle a dispute, foreign policy makers must understand its viability and limitations.

The South China Sea arbitration case can offer some valuable insights on the complexities of the legal approach to dispute settlement. Five considerations on the legal approach can be gathered from the Philippine experience.

First, the legal approach is only feasible if the claim has a firm legal basis and if the case can be submitted to a forum having jurisdiction. The Philippines filed the case on the South China Sea believing that its claim would hold up well in a court of law, especially against China’s position. The Philippines’ submissions were strongly grounded in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), unlike China’s “nine-dash line” claim, which, at the outset, exceeded the 200-nautical-mile–limit set by the Convention, relied on “historic rights” existing outside the Convention, and infringed on the rights of coastal states given by the Convention. Indeed, the Philippines’ claims were later upheld by the Arbitral Tribunal.

An international court or tribunal, however, can only settle legal disputes over which it has jurisdiction. This depends on whether both disputants have previously consented, expressly or implicitly, to the court or tribunal’s authority to deliver a binding ruling on the issue. State parties to UNCLOS, including China and the Philippines, consented to UNCLOS dispute settlement mechanisms when they ratified the Convention, but this consent does not normally extend to sovereignty disputes. China additionally withheld its consent on compulsory dispute settlement relating to maritime boundary delimitation, historic bays and titles, military activities, and fisheries law enforcement, among others, in 2006. The Philippines thus had to avoid in its submissions questions of sovereignty (who owns the features?) as well as issues falling under the exceptions declared by China. Instead, it had to deal exclusively with questions of maritime entitlement (what rights over the surrounding waters do the features generate?). This careful framing of the dispute allowed the Arbitral Tribunal to exercise jurisdiction and decide the case.

States can refer disputes to two types of adjudicative forums: a permanent court or an arbitral tribunal. A permanent court is established indefinitely to resolve all cases that may be given to it, while an arbitral tribunal is formed only to settle the specific case lodged to it. The selection of judges, scope of applicable law, and procedure are usually already predetermined in a permanent court, but these may be flexibly specified by the disputants in forming an arbitral tribunal. Permanent courts, however, are less costly (being paid by the international community) and are generally deemed more prestigious (having judges presumed to have developed professionalism throughout their tenures), which makes their rulings potentially more authoritative (Bilder 2007, 198–205). Thus, the choice of forum can be strategic.

UNCLOS provided for a choice among two permanent courts (the International Court of Justice [ICJ] and the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea [ITLOS]) and two arbitral tribunals (one constituted under Annex VII and a special arbitral tribunal constituted in accordance with Annex VIII). Unfortunately, neither China nor the Philippines had previously declared consent to the ICJ or ITLOS, but the Philippines had the option to negotiate a special agreement with China jointly granting jurisdiction to either permanent court. However, knowing that China at that time would not agree to such an arrangement, and knowing that arbitration under Annex VII of UNCLOS allows for proceedings to continue even if China would refuse to participate, the Philippines strategically chose an arbitral tribunal rather than insist on a permanent court.

Second, the legal approach is not exclusive from other approaches to the peaceful settlement of disputes and can, in fact, go together with them. In the UN Charter, the legal approach—which includes arbitration (adjudication through an arbitral tribunal) and judicial settlement (adjudication through a permanent court)—is only one method of resolving disputes. Other methods include negotiation, enquiry, mediation, conciliation, and resort to regional or international agencies. Indeed, the Philippines at that time pursued the legal approach (arbitration) simultaneously with two other approaches: a “political” approach (multilateral engagement of ASEAN) and a “diplomatic” approach (continued bilateral discussions with China on other issues).

Third, even though the legal approach is peaceful and depends on mutual consent by the parties, it can be viewed by the defendant state as unfriendly and adversarial, thus potentially damaging the bilateral relationship. Such was China’s reaction to the arbitration case. It returned the Philippines’ notification and statement of claims, refused to formally participate in the proceedings, and publicly denounced the ruling. Moreover, despite the Philippines’ efforts to engage its neighbor on other areas, China set restrictions on the import of agricultural products from the Philippines and issued an advisory against traveling to the country. It also repeatedly accused the Philippines of escalating tensions in the region. If states are thus to insist on the legal approach, they must also explore simultaneously pursuing conflict prevention and management strategies.

Fourth, the legal approach ultimately relies on the parties to enforce the settlement by themselves; it does not end with securing a favorable ruling. China’s rejection of the ruling is telling because there is no higher authority that can compel states to comply with international rulings. Absent the willingness of one party, the other party will have to induce compliance through other means. The Philippines initially attempted to rally international support to raise the reputational cost of noncompliance for China, but under President Duterte, it decided to set aside the ruling in favor of improving bilateral ties, hoping that it will eventually shape a regional environment more conducive for compliance. Other states may face the same problem with the legal approach because even if a party agrees to refer the disputes to an international court or tribunal, the agreement is not an assurance that that party will eventually comply with the ruling.

Finally, the legal approach cannot guarantee dispute resolution. Despite the Philippines’ efforts, the South China Sea disputes remain unresolved and incidents are still being reported. For one, the arbitration only settled questions of maritime entitlement and left open questions of sovereignty, which lie at the core of the disputes. For another, China rejects the ruling, which, if respected, can prevent incidents at sea, reduce tensions, and breed mutual trust and confidence among the claimant states. By itself, the Arbitration Award is an important step toward eventual dispute settlement in the South China Sea, but political realities must always be considered with the legal approach. However comprehensive the ruling may be in clarifying the issues, disputes will continue absent the political will and commitment of all parties to reach a settlement.

With these considerations, it is clear, drawing just from the Philippine experience, that the legal approach is inherently limited and its viability depends on many other factors. The legal approach is, at the core, a means to an end. It is not enough to develop solid, shatterproof legal arguments, but states must also be careful about whether to throw them at all and, if one decides to go with the legal offensive, be skillful about how best to deploy them. The choice of forum, the deployment of simultaneous conflict prevention and management approaches, and the post-verdict strategy to ensure compliance are as important as, if not more important to, having well founded legal claims. Ultimately, the success of the legal approach depends not only on legal brilliance but also on political and diplomatic ingenuity. The Philippines succeeded in securing a legal victory that changed the geography of the South China Sea disputes to its advantage. China’s “nine-dash line” claim was shown to have no legal basis; the extent of the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone was clarified and its rights therein were affirmed; and the legal status of the disputed features were established. The challenge now is to induce China’s compliance and translate the legal victory into concrete gains.

About the author:
*Edcel John A. Ibarra
is a Foreign Affairs Research Specialist with the Center for International Relations and Strategic Studies of the Foreign Service Institute. Mr. Ibarra can be reached at eaibarra@fsi.gov.ph. The views expressed in this publication are of the authors alone and do not reflect the official position of the Foreign Service Institute, the Department of Foreign Affairs and the Government of the Philippines.

Source:
This article was published by FSI. CIRSS Commentaries is a regular short publication of the Center for International Relations and Strategic Studies (CIRSS) of the Foreign Service Institute (FSI) focusing on the latest regional and global developments and issues.

Endnote

  1. The Philippines had sued other countries to resolve international economic disputes under the World Trade Organization Dispute Settlement Mechanism. The Philippines had also submitted an application before to the International Court of Justice to intervene in a sovereignty case between Indonesia and Malaysia over the Ligitan and Sipadan Islands, but the Court eventually rejected it.

References

Keohane, Robert O., Andrew Moravcsik, and Anne-Marie Slaughter. 2000. “Legalized Dispute Resolution: Interstate and Transnational.” International Organization 54, no. 3 (Summer): 457–488. https://www.princeton.edu‌/slaughtr‌/Articles‌/IOdispute.pdf.

Bilder, Richard. 2007. “Adjudication: International Arbitral Tribunals and Courts.” In Peacemaking in International Conflict: Methods and Techniques, edited by I. William Zartman, rev. ed., 195–226. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace. http://ssrn.com‌/abstract=1641165.


South Africa: Hefty Sentences For Abalone Smugglers

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The Hawks in the Western Cape have welcomed the hefty sentences imposed on five suspects who operated an illegal abalone enterprise.

The members of the syndicate were sentenced by the Cape Town High Court on Monday.

Steven Phillip Muller, Willie van Rensburg, Gavin Wildschutt, Tony Du Toit and Johannes Liebenberg were found guilty on numerous charges that included the contravention of the Marine Living Resources Act as well as the Prevention of Organised Crime Act (POCA).

The Hawks’ intelligence driven investigation exposed their export companies which were dealing with illegal abalone concealed in containers and shipped to China.

Various plants were raided and abalone worth over R21 000 000 was seized and 18 suspects were arrested and brought to Court.

Wildschutt and Du Toit were sentenced to 15 years imprisonment on POCA and other charges such as contravention of the Marine Living Resources Act 18/1998.

Van Rensburg was sentenced to eight years imprisonment, while Muller was sentenced to four years imprisonment.

Liebenberg was sentenced to one year imprisonment on one count of contravention of the Marine Living Resources Act 8/1998 which was wholly suspended with stringent conditions.

During the court processes, one of the suspects linked to the syndicate died, three absconded and warrants of arrest have been issued.

The other six suspects, who were workers on these entities’ plants, entered into plea agreements and were all given suspended sentences while three were found not guilty and released.

Meanwhile, the 17 suspects arrested in Gansbay as part of the clamp down on an abalone syndicate in the province, appeared in the Cape Town Regional Court on Monday and the matter was postponed to the 10 April 2018 for bail application.

The suspects still remain in custody.

Some Neonicotinoid Pesticides Are More Toxic To Bees Than Others

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You’ve probably heard that the safety of neonicotinoid pesticides to bees is a matter of considerable controversy. However, neonicotinoids show varying toxicity to bees. Now, researchers reporting in the journal Current Biology have new evidence in honeybees and bumble bees that helps to explain why bees differ in their sensitivity to different neonicotinoids.

The study by researchers at Bayer AG (a company that manufactures neonicotinoid insecticides), the University of Exeter, and Rothamsted Research shows that differences in pesticide sensitivity result from differences in the way that metabolic enzymes involved in the bees’ defense against toxins break down particular pesticide chemicals. The findings suggest that it may be possible to specifically design pesticides that are toxic to insect pests but not to bees, the researchers say. The study was supported with funds from Bayer AG.

“Honeybees are more than 1,000 times less sensitive to the neonicotinoid thiacloprid than imidacloprid, with the latter classified as ‘highly toxic’ but the former categorized as only ‘slightly toxic’ or ‘practically non-toxic’ according to the official categories of the US Environmental Protection Agency,” said Chris Bass from the University of Exeter, United Kingdom. “By utilizing genomic information and state-of-the-art molecular and biochemical techniques, we show that in both honeybees and bumble bees, this selectivity is determined by closely related enzymes, which rapidly break down thiacloprid before it impacts the bee nervous system. Those same enzymes have little to no capacity to break down imidacloprid–thus explaining the differences in bee sensitivity to these compounds.”

The enzymes in question are members of a subfamily of enzymes known as cytochrome P450s. Earlier studies showed those enzymes detoxify other insecticides used by beekeepers to defend their hives against parasitic Varroa mites. Interestingly, related enzymes in humans are also involved in the metabolism of drugs and toxins.

In the new study, the researchers, including Ralf Nauen and his bee toxicogenomics team from Bayer AG’s Crop Science Division in Germany, first tested for differences in the way thiacloprid and imidacloprid bind to protein receptors in the bees’ heads. Those studies showed no differences in receptor binding by the two pesticides. Differences in receptor binding weren’t the answer.

To explore potential differences in the way metabolic enzymes break down the two pesticides, the researchers first treated bees with a chemical known to block the function of P450 enzymes. Those studies showed that without working P450 enzymes, honeybees and bumble bees both grew much more sensitive to thiacloprid. The treatment didn’t change their sensitivity to imidacloprid much, if at all.

Studies conducted in cells in the lab suggested a link between differences in the honeybees’ sensitivity and the function of a particular P450 enzyme called CYP9Q3. To provide additional evidence that CYP9Q3 is the primary honeybee P450 that confers tolerance to thiacloprid, the researchers engineered fruit flies to express various P450 enzymes from the honeybees and then tested their sensitivity to the pesticides. The studies confirmed that CYP9Q3 is the key enzyme. The researchers also found that bumble bees have a closely related P450 enzyme called CYP9Q4, which explains similar differences in their pesticide sensitivities.

“We identified the same enzyme subfamily degrading thiacloprid in two different bee pollinator species, which raises hope that the mechanism is evolutionarily conserved among other bee pollinators,” Lin Field of Rothamsted Research said. “We also found that these key enzymes are expressed at particularly high levels in Malpighian tubules–the insect equivalent of kidneys–and/or the brain where neonicotinoid insecticides act.”

The findings already suggest strategies for further protecting bees. For example, the researchers says, certain fungicides are known to inhibit P450 enzymes. Therefore, those fungicides should not be used in combination with neonicotinoids.

The researchers say that simple screening assays could help to identify compounds or combinations of compounds that have a lower innate toxicity to bees early in development, to protect pollinator species and crops. The genetically modified fruit flies that they’ve developed can now also be used in studies to identify future insecticides that might be effective against pests and also readily broken down by bees.

The findings come at a time when it has become increasingly difficult to register new pesticides, particularly in Europe.

“It is frequently no longer sufficient to just demonstrate that new compounds are non-hazardous to bees; a mechanistic explanation must be sought for why they are non-hazardous,” Nauen said. “Our study demonstrates for the first time that it is possible to mechanistically understand the low toxicity of certain pesticides to bee pollinators.”

Climate Change Threatens World’s Largest Seagrass Carbon Stores

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In the summer of 2010-2011, Western Australia experienced an unprecedented marine heat wave that elevated water temperatures 2-4 degrees Celsius above average for more than two months. Researchers from the Institute for Environmental Science and Technology at the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB) in collaboration with scientists from Australia, Spain, Malaysia, the United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia became alert to major carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions resulting from the loss of seagrass meadows at Shark Bay–an internationally recognized World Heritage Area and one of the largest remaining seagrass ecosystems on Earth.

The loss of seagrass at Shark Bay after the 2010-2011 marine heat wave released up to 9 million metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere over the three years following the event. This amount is roughly the equivalent to the annual CO2 output of 800,000 homes, two average coal-fired power plants or 1,600,000 cars driven for 12 months. It also potentially raised Australia’s annual estimate of national land-use change for CO2 emissions by up to 21 percent.

ICTA-UAB and Edith Cowan University (ECU)-led international research has estimated that Shark Bay has the largest carbon stores reported for a seagrass ecosystem, containing up to 1.3 percent of the total carbon stored in seagrass soils worldwide.

Researchers initially mapped 70 percent of this UNESCO World Heritage Site in 2014 and found a 22 percent loss of seagrass habitat as compared with the 2002 baseline, equivalent to a 1,100 km2 loss of meadows.

“The widespread losses in the summer of 2010/11 were unprecedented. The net loss of seagrass extent was accompanied by a dramatic shift in seagrass cover. What remained was sparser with ‘dense’ seagrass areas that had declined from 72 percent in 2002 to 46 percent in 2014,” explained Ariane Arias-Ortiz, Ph.D. candidate at ICTA-UAB and first author of the work.

“This decrease is significant because seagrass meadows rank among the most intense CO2 sinks in the biosphere, giving them the name ‘Blue Carbon ecosystems.’ They take up and store CO2 in their soils and biomass through biosequestration. The carbon that is locked in the soils may remain there for millennia if seagrass ecosystems, which offer physical protection to these stocks, remain intact,” said Professor Carlos M. Duarte, professor at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology and co-advisor to the Ph.D. thesis of the lead author.

Dr. Oscar Serrano, ECU researcher and also a co-author added, “When you have an event such as the losses at Shark Bay, not only do you lose the benefits of CO2 uptake by seagrasses but also any carbon sequestered by the seagrasses is released back into the atmosphere as CO2 when the seagrasses decompose.”

“Although seagrass meadows are amenable to restoration, more importantly, we should be looking at avoiding the loss of the seagrass carbon stores because CO2 emissions from degraded seagrass ecosystems greatly surpass the annual sequestration capacity of healthy meadows,” said Arias-Ortiz.

“With climate change forecasted to increase the frequency of extreme weather events, the permanence of these carbon stores becomes compromised, further stressing the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and implementing management actions to avoid adverse feedback on the climate system.”

To conduct the study, researchers used satellite imagery processed by the Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions of Western Australia, in situ sampling from 50 sites and soil modelling to make their calculations of potential CO2 release.

Planning ahead for future climate events

While the Shark Bay Marine Reserves Management Plan 1996-2006 offers protections against local threats, such as over-fishing and nutrient inputs from industry, agriculture and tourism, there is currently nothing in place to deal with global threats, such as heat waves. “We need to advance our understanding of how seagrass ecosystems, especially those living close to their thermal tolerance limit, will respond to threats from global change, both those from direct pressures and those from interactions with local pressures,” said Prof. Paul Lavery ECU researcher and co-author.

“We have seen how quickly losses can occur, and once destroyed, the capacity of seagrass meadows to recover is limited and slow, and largely depends on the arrival of seeds or seedlings.”

Plans for future catastrophes might include removing seagrass detritus to prevent phytoplancton blooms and growth of algae, which consume oxygen in the water column and attenuate light. If seagrasses are lost, impacted areas could be restored through reseeding and repopulation with genetically more resilient types of seagrass.

NATO’s Kosovo Campaign: The Survivors’ Stories

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Nineteen years after NATO launched air strikes to end the Kosovo war, a Kosovo Albanian recalls how he escaped a massacre but missed the victory celebrations, while a Serb remembers the bitterness of defeat.

By Serbeze Haxhiaj*

Sokol Morina had a long and sleepless night on March 24, 1999, the day that NATO began its campaign of air strikes against Slobodan Milosevic’s Yugoslav forces.

It was the last time that he and his big family were together in the village of Cikatove e Vjeter/Staro Cikatovo in the central Kosovo region of Drenica, and just a few hours before they learned from the radio that NATO had launched its campaign.

He recalled how throughout that night, he and his brothers kept watch in the dark and talked about how to escape the village to evade the expected arrival of Belgrade’s troops, who stepped up their own operations as NATO’s planes dropped their bombs.

“Early in the morning, the women and children departed to Drenas/Glogovac. The men stayed in the village. We knew that our days were numbered,” said Morina, who is now 63 and lives in Germany.

The family lived in constant anxiety, hidden in a cellar, until April 17, when Yugoslav forces entered the village and took away Sokol, his two brothers and two nephews.

“It was early morning when they took us to Shavarinat [a hill above the village]. There were around 30 men,” he said.

He was in the first line of captured ethnic Albanian civilians, together with his elder brothers, and witnessed his oldest brother, Tahir, fall to the ground when the first bullets were fired. Sokol rolled into a hole alive, untouched by the gunshots.

He stayed among the dead bodies until sunset. When darkness fell, he left to look for a place to hide and found his other nephew, Petrit, and another cousin, Selman, in the nearby hills.

Behind him, at the execution site, he left a pile of dead bodies. His brothers Tahir, 65, and Bahtir, 62, as well as two nephews, Florim and Afrim, were among them.

Hiding in a cave

NATO launched its air campaign against the Yugoslav military in an attempt to force President Slobodan Milosevic to accept the terms of an agreement which had been discussed for most of the previous month at the Chateau de Rambouillet in France.

The Kosovo delegation led by the Kosovo Liberation Army’s political director Hashim Thaci had accepted the terms which offered the chance to end the year of fighting and civilian displacements, while giving Kosovo Albanians substantial autonomy although preserving Yugoslav sovereignty over the disputed territory.

The diplomatic efforts failed, and after warnings to Belgrade to end its use of military force in Kosovo were ignored, NATO struck, and Yugoslav forces struck back.

In April, Morina and his relatives had been the first ones from their village to be taken to the execution site in Cikatove e Vjeter to be shot.

At the end of April, around 90 more people were taken there in two trucks. Twenty-five children were among them. Shyqyri Veliu, aged 13, was the youngest.

The remains of Morina’s brothers were found in 2016, in a mass grave in Rudnice in Serbia. But some of the remains of the other bodies have yet to be found.

Meanwhile Morina and his two relatives had taken shelter in a man-made cave – little more than a pile of rocks – not far from their houses, which had been torched.

“We heard when the trucks came, the shootings and bodies rolling into a pit,” Morina recalled.

Another village resident, Emin Morina, was left wounded in the pit.

“We took him away and placed him inside a small stone cave. After a week, his health got worse so he decided to go down into the village. The same day he was killed,” Sokol Morina said.

While NATO air strikes continued, nearly one million Kosovo Albanians were forced to leave their homes and seek refuge outside the country or in the cold and rainy Kosovo mountains.

As the humanitarian crisis deepened, former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan expressed his “deep anger” with the scale of ethnic cleansing within Kosovo. In an attempt to make the Yugoslav military stop its operations, NATO continued its “gradual escalation” strategy.

Meanwhile, in their cave hideout, the three Morinas started to struggle with hunger.

“We found some flour and used to mix it with water and salt to make noodles. We were lucky on sunny days because we dried a mixture of flour and water in the sun’s rays in order to make eating easier. Sometimes during the nights, we cooked a little porridge,” Morina recalled.

The war was not far away.

“There were nights when we heard detonations through the gaps between the stones. We were waiting for death to come,” he said.

‘A moment of defeat’

No more than 30 kilometres from Cikatove e Vjeter in the small town of Fushe Kosove/Kosovo Polje, Andjelka Cup’s apartment shook during the night when NATO bombs went off in a military compound near Slatina Airport in Pristina.

“Of course, for us [Serbs] it was different feeling compared to the Albanians. It was a moment of despair and insecurity. A moment of defeat,” said Cup, who is now 57.

Only two days before NATO launched its air campaign, Cup had arrived in Fushe Kosove/Kosovo Polje from the Bosnian town of Bihac after getting a job in the Yugoslav state-owned railway company.

She said that she believed that NATO would never intervene militarily.

“I experienced terrible years during the war in Bosnia… After Bosnia, I didn’t think there would be another war,” she said at her post-war home in the village of Caglavica near Gracanica, a Serb-dominated municipality in central Kosovo.

While her male colleagues were responding to a call for mobilisation and joining the army, women and children were leaving the country. But Cup remained in her office, almost alone.

“At the beginning of the air campaign we used to hide in a basement with our neighbours, then after several days I decided to not move from my office, no matter what happens,” she said.

“Only trains to Blace were functioning,” she added, referring to the route that transported fleeing Kosovo Albanians to the border crossing with Macedonia.

“I was often told to leave Kosovo but I didn’t want to,” she said.

On June 3, 1999, Milosevic accepted an international peace plan to end the conflict and Serbian troops started to withdraw to make way for a NATO-led multinational force.

But unlike many Serbs who decided to flee, Cup brought her three children to Kosovo three days before Serbian forces pulled out.

“I remember a Serb police officer at Merdare [border crossing] said to me: ‘Where are you going? We are all leaving Kosovo,’” she said.

She explained that she was determined not to move again. “I was tired of my displaced status for years in Bosnia. I didn’t want to move anymore. I decided to stay, no matter what happens,” she said.

Mourning for a survivor

During the NATO bombing in April 1999, Sokol Morina’s pregnant wife went to a refugee camp in Macedonia with and their four children, and from there to Germany from, all the while believing that her husband had been killed.

But his uncomfortable accommodation in the improvised cave didn’t end when NATO troops came in and Serbian forces left Kosovo on June 12, 1999.

Morina and his two relatives stayed hidden until July 13 that year, a month after the war ended.

“We heard some voices outside. We thought they were Serb forces. I decided to go out of the cave. We were exhausted and I remember when I told the two others: ‘Let them kill me.’ But I saw children playing in the field,” he said.

It was then that he realised that the war was over.

A week earlier, on July 6, his wife had given birth to a baby girl in Germany. Down in the village meanwhile, his relatives had even held traditional mourning rituals for him, thinking that he was among the dead.

Instead he had survived, but when he left the cave which had sheltered him for so many weeks, it was too late to join the freedom celebrations in the streets.

 

Armenia, Israel To Abolish Double Taxation

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Armenia and Israel will abolish double taxation, a corresponding draft decision was approved at a cabinet meeting on Thursday, March 22.

Israel and Armenia expressed a wish to bolster and expand relations when the former’s foreign minister Edward Nalbandian met the latter’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu in November 2017.

During their meeting, the two explored intensification of trade and economic relations, expansion of the legal framework, the perspectives of implementing joint programs in the fields of information technologies, education and science, tourism and agriculture.

If Marco Polo Were Alive Today What Tales Would He Tell About China And Tibet? – Analysis

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By Dr. Andrea Galli*

In 1298, Marco Polo told astonishing stories about a marvellous land he called Cathay, modern-day China which was ruled by the Yuan dynasty. During his extraordinary journey, Marco Polo also visited Tibet, which was also under the Yuan dynasty. He was the first Westerner to refer to Tibet as a part of China, and nobody objected. Marco Polo had no idea how his observations might change the face of the globe.

Since those days, world events have gathered speed. Columbus discovered America, at first believing it was Asia; disaffected and persecuted Europeans began to populate the shores of the new continent, squeezing further inland the indigenous population. Empire builders sought new colonies ever further afield. New lands to conquer, new resources to appropriate, new riches to seize…

Societies were subjected to similar upheavals. Old forms of exploitation were reinvented, with slavery giving way to feudal serfdom; ancient and new religious beliefs spread across the planet, to capitalism and communist ideologies divided the globe and its peoples.

Following the Second World War, the US saw in Tibet a religious patent that could be exploited against communism as an ongoing propaganda campaign. It started with an armed uprising in 1959 against the People’s Republic of China, followed by the exile of the 14th Dalai Lama in India and the establishment of the Government of Tibet in Exile ruling over about 100,000 Tibetan refugees settled mainly in northern India.

Ever since, China has considered all Tibet’s pro-independence movements as part of a strategic propaganda operation abetted by Western imperialists who want to destabilize China. This view was bolstered, for example, by the CIA‘s backing of Tibetan insurgencies during the 1950s and 1960s, the support of Western NGOs for the “pro-Tibet” riots of 2008 when China hosted the Olympic Games, and the continuing self-immolations by Tibetans and Buddhist monks promoted since 2009 by the Government of Tibet in Exile, praised as courageous by the 14th Dalai Lama – although he questioned their effectiveness – and glorified by NGOs advocating human rights for Tibet.

There have been intermittent expectations of formal negotiations between the principal parties to the Tibet issue, but their zero-sum view of Tibet’s political status, reciprocal accusations and mutual suspicion have been persistent barriers. The participation of other actors has also had an effect. Many foreign states acknowledge Tibet as a part of China, while none formally recognizes the Government of Tibet in Exile – also known as the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA) – yet a number of them sustain the cause of the exiles in other ways. Thousands of supporters of Tibetan independence, encouraged by Western NGOs have also rallied to this cause, including members of the world’s parliaments, rights activists, actors, musicians, and ordinary converts to Tibetan Buddhism in the West.

In reality, communications on Tibet are persistently disseminated by the CTA, Western NGOs and the Chinese government as part of well-planned and organized propaganda campaigns serving contrasting geopolitical and military interests. China is in a particularly difficult position, since it is surrounded by topographical features that make it difficult for major armies to pass through. In the southwest there is Tibet: from a military point of view, it is a solid wall that has to be held. China has a fundamental security interest in retaining Tibet as well as an economic interest in its enormous natural resources, because Tibet is also the Chinese anchor in the Himalayas with its huge and still virtually untapped reservoir of minerals, metals, water and energy. From this perspective Tibet can be considered as a major Achilles’ heel for China.

In the context of decades of propaganda during and after the Cold War, serving the different geopolitical and military interests, the concept of Shangri-La is particularly important to our understanding of how Tibet is presented. Shangri-La is a fictional place described in the 1933 novel Lost Horizon by the British author James Hilton. Hilton describes it as a mystical, harmonious Himalayan valley, serenely guided by a monastery of lamas or spiritual masters. Shangri-La has evolved in the Western collective imagination into a modern surrogate of the lost Garden of Eden: a mythical utopia, a permanently happy land, isolated from the outside world, dedicated to the preservation of peace, spirituality and nature. It is an ideological fantasy representing the last refuge of Western societies from their present and historical sins of consumerism, atheism, capitalism and colonialism. The Shangri-La notion is the central constituent for manoeuvring popular opinion in the propagandistic exploitation of the collective imagination in Western countries.

The narrative of the Tibetan Government in Exile

Leaders of the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA) have opportunistically adopted parts of the myth of a pre-1951 Shangri-La in Tibet to promote a theocracy, from which the rulers gain legitimacy and to whose members secular Tibetans should pay obeisance, rather than being controlled by them. In promoting this idea, they use only that part of the Western idealization of Tibet, as Shangri-La, that is useful in legitimizing their status in the eyes of the West, however cementing their de-facto theocratic power within the exiled diaspora.

Because of the need for Western support of the exiled government and the significant role played by externally-based NGOs supporting Tibetan independence, Western hegemony is accepted in the diaspora’s discourses concerning Tibet and the Tibetan identity. A strategic essentialism that simplifies Tibetan identities for Westerners in the context of Shangri-La also impacts the self-identities of exiled Tibetans, many of whom accept Westernized notions of the Tibetan identity. Thus, although a modern sense of nationhood was absent in pre-1951 Tibet, CTA representations cast Tibetan nationhood as an historical reality. To gain legitimacy in the West, democratizing elements have been added to self-governance in exile, and the vocabulary of human rights, development, environmental protection, and so forth has been deployed by the CTA and supported by Western NGOs. Representations that directly fulfil the established Western image of Tibetans as inherently spiritual and peaceful have been especially prominent, forged by the personification of this utopia in the figure of the 14th Dalai Lama as a symbolic icon.

In reality, spirituality and sovereignty are linked through Tibet’s traditional system of theocratic government, in which politics and religion were tightly knit. Many exiled government officials continue promoting this system as ideal for Tibet and as an alternative to the atheistic Communist system of China. On the other hand, China has over the last three decades relaxed draconian and brutal Mao-era rules, by opening the door to private sector capitalism and by allowing individuals to practice a religion of their choice. There are now almost three times as many Buddhists in China as there are Communist Party members – there are 90 million members of Communist Party of China, some 250 million Buddhists and 200,000 registered Buddhist monks.

While the Chinese government’s approach to Buddhism has been liberal, it clearly takes the religion’s influence seriously, given its importance in Chinese society. The Chinese government is also acutely sensitive to the possibility of what it sees as external interference, especially on the delicate subject of Tibet and Tibetan Buddhism.

A particularly divisive issue for the Buddhist community, both within Tibet and in the exiled communities is devotion to the Dorje Shugden deity, a 400-year old practice that began in the 17th century and has become a major tradition in Tibetan Buddhism. At the origin of the controversy lies a de facto ban on the religious practice issued by the 14th Dalai Lama decades ago. The CTA sees the religious practice of Dorje Shugden as a competing and heretical movement that may undermine their notion of the spiritual leadership of the 14th Dalai Lama inside Tibet and among Tibetan Buddhists.

The de-facto ban issued by the 14th Dalai Lama has generated considerable social tension and division in the diaspora, as well as in Tibetan society within China, leading the Chinese government to consider the Dorje Shugden controversy an important front for undermining what it says are efforts promoted by the 14th Dalai Lama aimed at destabilizing China. The religious hostility has been fed by considerable propaganda and counterpropaganda efforts during the last two decades and it is still an open battlefield that may escalate at any time. In historical terms, the implications could be reminiscent of Martin Luther’s reformation of Christianity centuries ago.

Significantly sensitive are the methodical efforts of the exiled government to silence opposing voices in the controversy, using systematic defamation and coercive methods, including the use of modern disinformation means like coordinated troll campaigns on social media and fake news campaigns. Such methods seem out of place in the peaceful Shangri-La narrative that is usually promoted, but rather more suited to an atmosphere of historical crisis like the period of the Inquisition. Additionally, it has been continuously observed that Dorje Shugden followers, monks and monasteries in Tibet and abroad are portrayed as heretic, demonic and sectarian, and are branded as Chinese Communist Party supporters or Chinese spies by most NGOs advocating in western countries for the exiled Government’s goals.

The role of the Western human rights NGOs

The Western NGOs present pre-1951 Tibet as Shangri-La in a way that serves to reinforce Tibet’s claim for sovereignty in the international community by capitalizing on the yearnings of Western activists for a lost social and ecological harmony. For them China is demonized as an evil force which invaded Tibet in 1951, destroying a previously harmonious, peaceful, ecological and spiritual society. While the 14th Dalai Lama has stated that “all Tibetans want more prosperity, more material development”, those material developments realized by China in contemporary Tibet are seen by the Western NGOs as an immoral cultural regression and a mean of implementing brutal oppression which primarily benefits the Chinese state and Han migrants in Tibet.

The discussion on human rights has been added and elaborated by the exiles and their NGO supporters and has a close fit with similar concerns emerging in international politics generally. While exiled critics see a human rights strategy as detracting from a focus on Tibet’s lack of independence, Chinese officials regard it as the heart of the exiles’ campaign to internationalize the Tibet issue. However, the expression of the Tibet issue as a human rights problem – the mainstay of the exiled Government’s strategy since the mid-1980s – has garnered support from across the political spectrum and provides the exiled Government and their supporting NGOs with a visibility in global politics they would not otherwise have. It stands, moreover, as a challenge to the forced dichotomy of the real versus the ideal and the hegemony of realism in politics generally.

In the last two decades, a statistical table of causalities among Tibetans from 1951 through the 1970s has been widely circulated by Western NGOs. Its total of 1.2 million deaths is based solely on unconfirmed refugee estimates, but is cited often by Western politicians and media. Such figures are characterized by unsubstantiated assertions and improbabilities criticised also by established NGOs advocating for Tibetan independence: for example the head of the Free Tibet Campaign NGO based in UK, examined the refugee interview documents and found large-scale duplications.

The official 1953 census recorded the entire population residing in Tibet at 1.3 million. Other census counts put the population within Tibet at the time at about two million. If the Chinese killed 1.2 million in the early 1960s then almost all of Tibet would have been depopulated, transformed into a killing field dotted with death camps and mass graves of which no evidence exists. Other demographic studies show that, as claimed, battle deaths would have been several times the ratio for the main belligerents in the two World Wars; alleged prison deaths would have required that one-tenth of all Tibetans were imprisoned during each year of a three-decade-long period.

While there were unquestionably substantial causalities in Tibet due to violent actions of the Chinese in the Mao era, as there were everywhere in China, the spread of misleading statistics regarding Tibet seems a clear effort to manipulate public perceptions about the real situation.

While the US has formally agreed that Tibet is an integral part of China, its Congress has nonetheless politically and financially supported the Tibetan independence movement driven by the NGOs and the exiled Government. So did the Nobel Prize Committee when it presented the peace award to the 14th Dalai Lama in 1989. Such recognitions and support ignore Chinese contributions to economic development in Tibet: the welfare policy adopted by the central government of China since the 1980s has markedly improved the life of the average Tibetan, and religious freedom has been restored.

Instead of praising the efforts of the Chinese government, the US Congress has criticized any progress made as an attempt to erase Tibetan culture, defining such a process as “cultural genocide”. This terminology has been widely exploited by the NGOs in their propaganda effort since the end of the 1980s, even after several failed attempts to apply the term of “genocide”, whose adequacy has been largely contested in the post-Mao era.

Of particular importance is one of the main propaganda tools used by the NGOs and the CTA to generate media attention and political discussion: the campaign of self-immolation in protest against Chinese rule in Tibet. This campaign has intensified since 2009, but has its roots in a few isolated cases that began around 1998 outside Tibet.

The NGOs state that self-immolation acts of Tibetans are an affirmation of the Tibetan identity in the face of “cultural genocide”. This proclamation however disregards the fact that suicide is forbidden in Buddhism. The campaign is heavily exploited around the world. In some cases acts of self-immolation are even used to promote fundraising activities, and particularly in the US, to obtain governmental subsidies, with wide support from cultural exponents like Hollywood actors or famous musicians.

Only very few of Tibet’s Buddhist clerics or exponents of the human rights community have dared to speak out in Western countries against glorifying, praising and promoting acts of self-immolation for political gain. When asking exponents of the NGOs about the justification for this practice, the answer is always evasive, with vague references to obscure roots of self-immolation traditions in the Tibetan culture.

The linking of the Tibet issue to human rights has been traced to the decision of the 14th Dalai Lama and the exiled government to internationalize in the late 1980s. The foundation of the human rights position is the principle of nonviolence, an important aspect of the public face of the exiled government, and fundamental to its policies and its exploitation of the Shangri-La myth. This has facilitated a seamless incorporation of a human rights consciousness into the approach of supportive NGOs, while simultaneously making it plausible and credible to vast popular audiences, especially to non-Tibetan observers in the West.

Human rights and other transnational issues such as the environment have attracted consent for marginalized identity groups across the globe, popularizing their political concerns and aspirations. Popular movements that pivot on “rights” challenge not only state authority, but more recently, the authority of multinational corporations as well. The effect is that many activists have been mobilized to sympathize with the NGOs advocating for Tibetan independence.

Such activists usually have different ideologies but shares principles close to the Shangri-La utopia, like for example anti-globalists or anarchists, but also ecologists or socialists or vegans… In reality, the concept of human rights diplomacy itself implies the corruption of human rights as an ideal; it is a defective concept from the standpoint of idealists, because it reflects the imperfect fit between their goals and national, political and military hegemonies. It also reflects the gap between popular, state and geo-political interests, particularly when applied with double standards. In the ideal world, rights should be above interests, but in the “real” world, they are merely ideals.

Worldwide there are about a thousand associations, foundations or charity organisations that revolve around the subjects of Tibetan independence, human rights for Tibet or the 14th Dalai Lama. A complete overview has not been established yet. However, the following NGOs (some registered as charities, some as foundations) play a crucial role in this discussion:

INTERNATIONAL CAMPAIGN FOR TIBET is an NGO (website savetibet.org), based in Washington, US. It is endowed with a 4 million USD annual budget and supports the goals of the 14th Dalai Lama and the CTA. The NGO says it promotes human rights and democratic freedom in Tibet and is active in lobbying US Congressional committees. It networks with other exiled Chinese democracy NGOs, promotes news coverage of issues in Tibet, like for example self-immolation, “cultural genocide” or anti-Dorje Shugden campaigns. Additionally it publishes two newsletters, the Tibet Press Watch and Tibetan Environment & Development News, and speaks to academics, journalists, and civic and community groups. Its main public exponent is the actor Richard Gere.

TIBET HOUSE (aka Tibet House US Cultural Center of H. H. the Dalai Lama, website tibethouse.us) was founded in 1987 by Columbia University professor Robert Thurman (father of actress Uma Thurman), actor Richard Gere and modern composer Philip Glass (among others) at the behest of the 14th Dalai Lama. It operated initially only in New York. The organisation now has affiliates in India, Mexico, Germany, Spain, the UK and Russia. Besides the preservation of the Tibetan culture, the organisation is active in supporting the political views of the 14th Dalai Lama and is very active in propaganda against Chinese rule in Tibet and China. In the US it has annual revenue of 2.5 million USD and accumulated assets of 6.5 million USD.

FREE TIBET (website freetibet.org) is a small NGO based in London, UK with an annual budget of 500,000 USD. In spite of its small budget the NGO has a strong online presence in social media. The group’s political views are aligned with those propagated by the CTA.

STUDENTS FOR A FREE TIBET is an NGO based in New York, US with a declared annual budget of 700,000 USD. The NGO says it is a network of 35’000 students working toward social justice and freedom in Tibet. Students for a Free Tibet educates young people propagating a message of Tibetan independence and works on translating that awareness into action through political, economic, and social campaigns. Students for a Free Tibet say they recognize the legal and historical status of Tibet as an independent country. This NGO was the main organizer of Tibetan protesters who disrupted the Summer Olympic ceremony, the Olympics torch relay in Beijing, 2008.

TIBET FUND (website tibetfund.org) is a foundation based in New York, US. The entity has an annual budget of about 6 million USD and cumulative assets of 8 million USD. The Tibet Fund, founded in 1981, is the principal fund raising organization working very close with the CTA. The fund partner is the organisation OFFICE OF TIBET, the official agency of the 14th Dalai Lama and the CTA based in Dharamsala, India. OFFICE OF TIBET is present in 13 countries, with bases in New Delhi, Kathmandu, Geneva, New York, Tokyo, London, Paris, Moscow, Brussels, Canberra, Pretoria, Taipei and Budapest. They are in charge of bilateral relations with different countries as well as with European Union institutions and the United Nations Organisation. The organisations have several substructures registered as Foundations in the US and abroad, like for example the OFFICE OF TIBET US or the TIBETAN COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT FUND INC. The OFFICE OF TIBET US also has a managerial function with respect to the current president of the CTA, Dr. Lobsang Sangay, who is a US citizen living in Boston.

THE DALAI LAMA TRUST (websites dalailama.com, dalailamatrust.org) is the foundation of the 14th Dalai Lama based in New York and India which administers the royalties and revenues from his intellectual properties and public events. It was filed in 2009 and in the US the foundation has annual revenues of 2 million USD with accumulated assets of 7 million USD. The trust has several substructures registered as foundations in the US and India and possibly abroad. The total assets or revenue of all structures is not known at present.

INDEPENDENT TIBET NETWORK (formerly CAMPAIGN FREE TIBET) is today a rather obscure network of activists propagating radical separatist political views (called “rangzen”) on Tibetan independence. Its website is tibettruth.com. Formed in 1988 it was a lobbying network which campaigned for justice, human rights and independence for Tibet and East Turkestan. The NGO is today linked to a partner organisation called RANGZEN ALLIANCE, registered in New York and led by Tibetan separatists. The political views of both organisations are presently close to anarchism and against the theocracy of the lamas. They are clear opponents to the CTA, which they consider unsuited to true Tibetan independence. The organisation INDEPENDENT TIBET NETWORK appeared to be originally registered in London and had possible links to the UK intelligence services. Today it has links to the Anonymous hacking group. INDEPENDENT TIBET NETWORK was very active in the 1990s, forging the notion of “cultural genocide” and birth control issues in Tibet. Since 2008, partnering with RANGZEN ALLIANCE, it also glorifies the self-immolation campaigns in Tibet.

TIBETAN CENTER FOR HUMAN RIGHTS AND DEMOCRACY (website tchrd.org) is an NGO based in Dharamsala, India, closely working with the CTA, also based in Dharamsala. The NGO says it investigates human rights issues in Tibet and amongst Tibetan minorities throughout China. Its budget is unknown. The main focus of the NGO is the coverage of issues in Tibet, like for example self-immolation, political prisoners in China and “cultural genocide”.

The response of the Chinese Government

The Chinese government portrays pre-1951 Tibet not as Shangri-La but as a feudal house of horrors, among the darkest and most backward regions in the world, and one of the regions where human rights violations were most serious. For them the mission in contemporary Tibet is considered as fulfilling a long-term civilizing assignment.

Before the Chinese invasion of Tibet in 1951, the region was ruled by a theocracy and had a social hierarchy similar to pre-feudal times. Tibet was characterized by a form of institutionalized inequality that can be called serfdom: an ancient form of slavery preceding the development of the feudal system. It existed in Tibet until 1959. Exploitation was not through land-rent like in the Middle Ages in Europe but through enslavement to the aristocrats, clerics or manor owners. In return for working the land, the slaves were provided with minimal lodging, clothing and food. This form of slavery was finally abolished in Tibet only in 1959. Until that year, when China cracked down on Tibetan rebels and the 14th Dalai Lama fled to northern India, around 98% of the population was enslaved in serfdom. For example, the Drepung monastery, on the outskirts of Lhasa, was one of the world’s largest landowners with 185 manors, 25’000 serfs, 300 pastures, and 16’000 herdsmen. High-ranking lamas and secular landowners imposed crippling taxes, forced boys into monastic slavery and pilfered most of the country’s wealth – torturing disobedient serfs in a variety of brutal ways. In feudal Tibet, torture and mutilation – including gouging out eyes, pulling out tongues, severing hamstrings and amputation of limbs – were favoured punishments inflicted upon thieves, and runaway or obstructive serfs. Many materials and photos showing the limbs of serfs amputated by serf-owners in those years are kept in the Tibetan Social and Historical Relics Exhibition in the Beijing Ethnic Cultural Palace.

Earlier Western visitors to Tibet commented on the country’s theocratic despotism. In 1895, an Englishman, Dr. A. L. Waddell, wrote that the populace was under the “intolerable tyranny of monks” and the devil superstitions they had fashioned to terrorize the people. In 1904, the English traveller and writer Perceval Landon described the then Dalai Lama’s rule as “an engine of oppression.” At about that time, another English traveller, Captain W.F.T. O’Connor, observed that “the great landowners and the priests… exercise each in their own dominion a despotic power from which there is no appeal,” while the people are “oppressed by the most monstrous growth of monasticism and priest-craft.” Tibetan rulers “invented degrading legends and stimulated a spirit of superstition” among the common people.

Serf-owners literally possessed the living bodies of their serfs. Since serfs were at their disposal as their private property, they could trade and transfer them, present them as gifts, use them as collateral against debts and exchange them. Before 1951, Lhasa’s downtown area had a population of around 20’000. It was surrounded by some 1’000 tattered tents, homes of poverty-stricken people and beggars. The average life expectancy was only 35.5 years. In Tibet there was not a single school in the modern sense. The enrolment rate of school-age children was less than 2 percent, and the illiteracy rate reached 95 percent.

Over the centuries the Tibetan lords and lamas had seen the Chinese come and go and had enjoyed good relations with them. When the 14th Dalai Lama was first installed in Lhasa, it was with an armed escort of Chinese troops and an attending Chinese minister, in accordance with a centuries-old tradition. What upset the Tibetan lords and lamas in the early 1950s was that these latest Chinese were Communists. It would be only a matter of time, they feared, before the Communists started imposing their collectivist egalitarian schemes upon Tibet.

The issue flared up in 1956-57, when armed Tibetan bands ambushed convoys of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. The uprising received extensive assistance from the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), including military training, support camps in Nepal, and numerous airlifts. Meanwhile in the US, the American Society for a Free Asia, a CIA-financed front, energetically publicized the cause of Tibetan resistance, with the 14th Dalai Lama’s eldest brother, Thubtan Norbu, playing an active role in that organization. The 14th Dalai Lama’s second-eldest brother, Gyalo Thondup, established an intelligence operation with the CIA as early as 1951. He later upgraded it into a CIA-trained guerrilla unit whose recruits parachuted back into Tibet later in the decade. Many Tibetan commandos and agents whom the CIA dropped into the country were chiefs of aristocratic clans or the sons of chiefs.

Whatever the oppressions introduced by the Chinese after 1959, they did eradicate slavery and the Tibetan serfdom system of unpaid labour. They eliminated the many crushing taxes, started work projects, and greatly reduced unemployment and begging. They established secular schools, thereby breaking the educational monopoly of the monasteries. And they constructed running water and electrical systems. Chinese authorities also claim to have put an end to flogging, mutilation, skinning and amputation as forms of criminal punishment.

They themselves, however, have been charged with acts of brutality by exiled Tibetans. The Chinese authorities admit to such acts, particularly during the 1966-76 Cultural Revolution when the persecution of religious beliefs reached an apex in both China and Tibet. Prior to that, after the uprising in 1959, thousands of Tibetans were incarcerated. And during the Mao-era “Great Leap Forward”, forced collectivization and grain farming were imposed on the Tibetan peasantry, sometimes with disastrous effect on production, which led to famine and substantial related causalities.

Then, in the late 1970s, China began relaxing controls and tried to undo some of the damage inflicted during the previous two decades. In 1980, the Chinese government initiated reforms reportedly designed to grant Tibet a greater degree of self-rule and self-administration. Tibetans would now be allowed to cultivate private plots, sell their harvest surpluses, decide for themselves what crops to grow, and keep yaks and sheep. Communication with the outside world was again permitted, and frontier controls were eased to permit some Tibetans to visit exiled relatives in India and Nepal.

By the mid-1980s many of the principal lamas had begun to shuttle back and forth between China and the exiled communities abroad, restoring their monasteries in Tibet and helping to revitalize Buddhism there, including the popular religious practice of worshipping the deity Dorje Shugden. This exchange of religious teaching and movement of clerics across the Chinese border in the Tibetan communities has generated, among the CTA and the 14th Dalai Lama, fears of an accelerating loss of spiritual authority with respect to rival monastic doctrines, leading to the de-facto ban of Dorje Shugden devotion and consequent religious tensions.

In the 1990s, large numbers of Han, the ethnic group comprising over 95 percent of China’s immense population, began migrating into Tibet. Demographic issues in Tibet have always been strongly affected by conflict, migration and family planning. However, the NGO Tibetan Youth Congress has compared China’s migration of Han Chinese to Tibet to the Nazi extermination of Jews. Exiled leaders contend that the Tibetan population was 6 million in 1951 (in contrast of the figures of around 2 million of the 1953 census) and the same a half-century later, because the Chinese government killed al least 1.2 million Tibetans through war, imprisonment, execution, or famine. The figure is cited in Western media, but has been challenged by demographers. The 14th Dalai Lama has accused China of demographic aggression. Tibetan exiles and NGO supporters argue that family planning restrictions contribute to “cultural genocide” and assert that coercive birth control is applied. In reality, according to the 2000 census, there are 6 million Tibetans and 1.5 million non-Tibetans migrants in Tibet; additionally there are 5.4 million Tibetan migrants in Chinese territories outside the Tibetan plateau.

In spite of the demographic factors, Tibetan exiles and NGO supporters argue that the Chinese government carries out development in Tibet with little regard for the views of Tibetans, and that the Chinese Treasury profits exploit the region through state enterprises in sectors such as in mining and timber that operate in Tibet. It is argued that infrastructure in Tibet is constructed to facilitate military operations and the central Chinese government’s exploitation of resources, while most Tibetans, who are peasants and herders, are shut out of development or at least have benefited from it much less than the Han Chinese migrants in Tibetan areas.

In reality, the Chinese government sustains a net loss from Tibetan areas because it heavily subsidizes infrastructure development and government services. It argues that Tibetans are the principal beneficiaries of Tibet’s development, which provides opportunities and facilities open to all, including elements of preferential policies for Tibetans. Government statements emphasize that most Han Chinese in Tibet are temporary migrants engaged in small trade and thus should not be the most significant elements in any assessment of who, among long-term residents of Tibet, benefits from development.

This includes most rural Tibetans, who have experienced significant increases in income levels, education, health care, transport, environmental protection and communications over the past decades. For example the education system has been tailored to the cultural specificities of Tibetans by developing primary level schooling in the Tibetan language and secondary level schooling on a bilingual basis, adding Chinese languages and supplementary English lessons. Another example is the environment: it is argued that it is best preserved using world standards as a baseline, and is a major asset for the development of tourism in the region as well as in the safeguarding of cultural assets.

What would Marco Polo say?

Marco Polo once said of his travels: “I have not told the half of what I saw because I knew I would not be believed”. Tibet seems like a celestial paradise held in chains, but the west’s tendency to romanticise the country’’s Buddhist culture has distorted mainstream Western views. Popular belief is that under the lamas, Tibetans lived contentedly in a spiritual, non-violent culture, uncorrupted by lust or greed: but in reality society was extremely brutal, comparable to the cruelty of the Islamic State which devastated the Middle East societies in recent years. As much as we might wish it to be otherwise, feudal theocratic Tibet was a far cry from the romanticized Shangri-La so enthusiastically promoted by Western human rights NGOs.

What additional tales would Marco Polo have told today? Maybe that Tibet has become a major tourist destination for idealists? Or that only a handful of Tibetans would welcome a return of theocratic and aristocratic clans? That the Shangri-La myth is an ideological projection for offering redemption from the sins of consumerism? Or that the whole purpose of promoting the Shangri-La myth is to trade indulgences like Pope Leo X did in 1517? That maybe one day a Buddhist “Martin Luther” will come and nail a Manifesto on the gates of the Potala palace in Lhasa? Or that the Government of Tibet in Exile is a puppet of the CIA, or a relict of the Cold War? We don’t know, nor do we know what effect his words would have had. As the great navigator himself noted: “I speak and speak, but the listener retains only the words he is expecting. It is not the voice that commands the story: it is the ear”.

About the author:
*Dr. Andrea Galli
, principal investigator at swiss east affairs

Source:
This article was published by Modern Diplomacy.

Global Corporate Sustainability Action Is Necessary For Public Health – OpEd

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As many businesses continue with harmful methods of production and manufacturing, the health of the planet and its inhabitants continues to suffer. There are endless scientific studies run every year on the effects of greenhouse gases, pollution, an excess of plastic, and more, yet corporations seem not to care.

Though some make an effort to make positive change, it’s not enough. Even worse, some corporations feign their sustainability efforts, violating their ethical responsibility. Experts worry about the worsening state of the Earth as these negative habits continue to wreak havoc on it. Action is necessary now to make a positive difference.

Questionable Values

Although trading environmentally harsh processes for sustainable practices is an expensive switch, going green is of great value to businesses. Not only is it great PR for their reputation, but they also become more appealing to many customers. Unfortunately, not all businesses are willing to earn the PR or customers the right way.

According to an environmental report on green marketing and producing green products, greenwashing occurs when businesses use green marketing in a way that misrepresents the company’s actual policies and practices. Also cited in the research were big name companies have been found to greenwash, including General Electric (GE), American Electric Power, and Exxonmobil.

The report additionally states that though there are extensive measures to help regulate green marketing — like regulating terms such as biodegradable, non-toxic, recyclable, and eco-friendly — some terms remain unregulated. These terms, such as “organic” or “sustainable,” can be manipulated by companies to misrepresent their products.

Public Health Consequences

Not only do such unethical practices enable companies to profit from fraudulent claims, they help prevent sustainable action. As long as companies are able to get away with such murky behavior, they will avoid action. As long as they continue to have a scapegoat or a way around, they will continue their harmful practices. As long as they do this, public health will suffer.

According to the University of Nevada, Reno, climate change has caused severe health consequences, starting with food insecurity. As temperatures rise due to global warming, there is an increasing pattern of failed livestock and crops.

The university also reports that high temperatures also help to spread dangerous diseases, such as dengue fever and malaria. These geo-climate associated infections are prone to specific environments that are supported by the heat, and higher global temperatures will help expand the right conditions for these types of diseases.

Of course, these are just a couple of the many ways that the lack of sustainable action is harming public health. Radiation poisoning, polluted drinking water, and the consumption of dangerous chemicals are also hovering threats.

Corporate Responsibility

Companies have a responsibility to improve sustainability efforts not only to minimize their environmental harm as part of corporate social responsibility (CSR), but also for global leadership. As long as the majority of big companies do not participate in green solutions, they are allowing everyone else to follow.

However, if companies live up to their corporate responsibility to their community, they set a positive example for other companies to follow. This way, they would eventually make it impossible for companies not to practice sustainable methods of production.

Investing in sustainability is one of many ways companies can invest in their community. When they take sustainability seriously and commit to best green practices, they truly earn the positive marketing and consumer support. At the same time, they help maintain the health of the planet to secure a better future, not only for themselves, but for their community as well.

*Avery T. Phillips is a freelance human being with too much to say. She loves nature and examining human interactions with the world. Comment or tweet her @a_taylorian with any questions or suggestions.


Energy Calculations Of A Trump-Kim Meeting – Analysis

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Kim may be ready to freeze his nuclear program while considering US, South Korean and Russian energy calculations.

By Joergen Oerstroem Moeller*

Anyone other than Donald Trump would have referred Kim Jong-un’s invitation to the national security machinery, which undoubtedly would have led to lengthy analysis and a recommendation to say no. Such a meeting is out of context with US policies since 1953, and only an atypical leader who revels in disruption could turn affairs upside down, making the unthinkable thinkable. Calculations on energy may be driving overtures among South Korea, North Korea and Trump, and sanctions may have forced Kim to change track because leaders cannot disregard public hardship for long without the risk of discontent.

Kim accelerated nuclear and missile tests to the point where he likely feels the arsenal is sufficiently operative, and the United States fears that this is the case. A new president in South Korea is open to his overtures. Kim may recognize that his cards will never be better for taking a seat at the negotiation table and his long-term future pursuing belligerent policies is not promising. Do not forget that Kim is one of the few North Koreans who spent a considerable amount of his life in Western countries, educated in Switzerland for up to seven years and reportedly visiting several other nations under pseudonym. North Korea has internet access, and Kim knows how fragile and backward his country is – a Potemkin village with façades masking many problems. Kim also differs from his father and grandfather, both of whom only knew the West from limited newspapers and television, and probably realizes that his regime, not to mention himself, live on borrowed time. He can no longer survive by isolating the country from the rest of the world, pursuing policies contradictory to global rules, and financing these policies by obscure and illegal activities being unearthed in the wake of harsher sanctions – sending workers abroad and confiscating their earnings, selling drugs and money laundering.

North Korea is uncomfortable about excessive dependence on China, and relations have cooled. A rising China may no longer regard the Korean Peninsula as Mao Zedong once did, relying on a Chinese proverb – “If the lips are gone, the teeth will be cold” – to emphasize North Korea as a vital geographical security buffer. Circumstances have changed. China is expected to soon overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy, and its military is modernizing. US military action against China using South Korean territory is unlikely. Since being elevated to leader in 2011, Kim has not visited China, and Kim snubbed Song Tao, head of the Communist Party of China’s international department, when he visited North Korea in 2017.

During the Vietnam War, the United States saw Vietnam as a stooge for China in its power game, not understanding the history of the two countries and intense Vietnamese dislike for the Chinese. The United States should not repeat this mistake with North Korea. There is little love between the Chinese and the Koreans. A 2004 decision by the government-backed Chinese Academy of Social Sciences to classify the Korean kingdom of Goguryeo, 37 BC to 668 AD, as a vassal state touched a nerve among Koreans, opening a door for cooperation between North and South to “defend Korean identity” as they saw it. Both countries have accused China of reinterpretation of history.

Trump, with his administration under investigation for helping Russia interfere with the 2016 US presidential election, is desperate to present a victory at home, caring little about long-term strategic repercussions. For years, North Korea insisted on negotiations with the United States and over the past year identified South Korea as the weak link. South Korea would suffer most in the event of a military conflict. US officials maintain they do not require South Korea’s approval for an attack on North Korea. But not securing such approval for using South Korean airspace and territory would make a US military intervention more challenging.

If North Korea and South Korea agree to live with each other, the equation changes. Countless events have nourished mutual distrust, yet both are Korean and recognize that limited cooperation might bring benefits. South Korea ranks among the world’s top five importers for liquefied natural gas, crude oil and coal, according to the US Energy Information Administration. One possible step might be agreement on a pipeline transiting North Korea territory for transporting Russian gas to South Korea. Russia’s Vladimir Putin raised such a possibility with South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in in September: “We could deliver Russian pipeline gas to Korea and integrate the power lines and railway systems of Russia, the Republic of Korea and North Korea. The implementation of these initiatives will be not only economically beneficial, but will also help build up trust and stability on the Korean Peninsula.” During the 2017 Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Moon confirmed interest in stronger Russian–South Korean cooperation in nine areas including the gas sector. South Korea’s energy costs would decrease, North Korea would get paid, and Russia would have tangible interest in guaranteeing peace on the peninsula. China, sharing Russia’s wish of fewer US troops in Korea, might join in some formal guarantee of territorial integrity.

North Korea’s nuclear weapons would be a pawn. South Korean sources suggest Kim is willing to negotiate with the United States on abandoning his country’s nuclear weapons and suspending nuclear and missile tests while talks are underway. Skepticism about such promises is justified. Costs of a nuclear missile program are enormous, and it’s not likely that capability would be thrown away impulsively. Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi, not possessing nuclear weapons, serve as a lesson. Time and time again, North Korea entered negotiations to buy time and aid. But the United States may find it preferable to test for changed circumstances and a new North Korean posture rather than switching on the autopilot of saying no or insisting on preconditions that neither party would accept. Kim, like his father and grandfather, maneuvers to survive. Weapons of mass destruction were built to serve that goal, and setting limits, agreeing to inspections, could serve a purpose, too.

The United States may be stalling. If so, it will be driven into a corner with Japan sidelined at tremendous strategic cost. The United States could lose a lucrative market for its own future gas exports, explicitly mentioned by Trump after meeting Moon in June 2017, with South Korea buying from Russia instead. Trump may sense such a deal is in the making and choose to preempt strategic defeat without even trying negotiations. Or, he may regard the lesser risk as compared to alternatives, joining Kim in an unorthodox meeting that appeals to his sense of drama and posture as dealmaker.

Of course, there is the possibility that neither party has the stamina, willpower and determination to go through the tedious, time-consuming, yet essential preparatory phase without which such a meeting cannot succeed. In other words, maybe the two men are not serious, setting up a game to pin blame on the other for not trying – not unusual in diplomacy. If so, Trump can and will say that he responded quickly and positively, but became disappointed upon discovering that Kim played for the gallery. It’s a safe conclusion, considering the personalities, to expect dressage with both leaders aiming to come out on top. Kim scored first by taking the initiative, and Trump equalized immediately.

*Joergen Oerstroem Moeller is former state-secretary with the Royal Danish Foreign Ministry and a visiting senior fellow with ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. He is also an adjunct professor at Singapore Management University & Copenhagen Business School and an honorary alumni of the University of Copenhagen.

Preparing For The Worst: Poland’s Military Modernization – Analysis

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By Felix K. Chang*

(FPRI) — No one needs to remind Poland of the strategic dangers arising from its geography. Often sandwiched between great European powers, Poland has been invaded, carved up, and occupied for over two centuries. During World War II, its mostly flat and open terrain made it particularly vulnerable to the mechanized armies of Germany and the Soviet Union. Today, Poland’s position is less tenuous, but still fraught. While its western and southern borders are anchored by friendly NATO countries, its eastern border abuts Russia’s military stronghold of Kaliningrad, Belarus (a close Russian ally), and Ukraine (a country riven by Russia).

Russia’s New Military Challenge

Unfortunately for Poland, the last decade has seen the emergence of a militarily stronger and more aggressive Russia, despite Western economic sanctions against it. Much of Russia’s new-found strength can be traced back to its long-running “New Look” military reforms, which assumed a new sense of urgency after its lackluster war against Georgia in 2008. The reforms sought to streamline Russian combat units, outfit them with new military equipment, and most importantly boost their training and readiness.

The reforms turned Russia’s once-lumbering military into a more nimble fighting force, one far better able to fight modern conventional wars as well as leverage “hybrid warfare” techniques.[1] Several of Russia’s airborne and “New Look” brigades can now go into action within 24 hours of an alert.[2] Russia demonstrated that capability in 2014, when it swiftly deployed its special forces, airborne, and naval infantry units to Crimea on short notice. Soon afterwards, it massed another 40,000 to 100,000 troops on its border with Ukraine.

Rising to the Challenge

Russia’s military success in Ukraine convinced an increasingly anxious Poland of the need to be prepared to fight across the entire spectrum of operations. Fortunately for Poland, its briskly growing economy has enabled it to fund those preparations. Over the last three years, its regular armed forces have grown from 100,000 personnel to over 130,000. By 2025, Poland’s Ministry of Defense expects that number to reach 200,000. It also plans to expand the Polish army’s force structure from three divisions to four. In 2017, it even established a new armed service called the Territorial Defense Force (Wojska Obrony Terytorialnej or WOT). Separate from the regular army, the WOT’s wartime role will be to counter Russian airborne and special operation forces behind the frontlines. The WOT will eventually field 17 light infantry brigades, one in each of Poland’s provinces (two in the largest province), with an authorized strength of 53,000.[3]

Poland has also accelerated its military’s modernization. Rather than wait for new-build acquisitions, the Polish military chose to buy off the shelf and update its existing kit. Thus, Poland not only acquired 105 retired Leopard 2A5 tanks from Germany in 2015, but also began to upgrade its 142 Leopard 2A4 tanks with improved armor and combat systems a year later. Likewise, it laid plans to modernize its T-72 and PL-91 tanks and may purchase more second-hand Leopard 2A4s. Poland also expects to procure a full range of short-, medium-, and long-range anti-tank guided missiles for its regular army and the WOT.[4]

In its modernization drive, Poland has not overlooked its combat support arms. In the summer of 2017, it took delivery of the first 14 of 96 Krab 155-mm self-propelled howitzers and the first eight of 64 Rak 120-mm self-propelled mortar systems. And, to enhance the mobility of its mechanized forces, it has begun discussions to acquire new mobile bridging equipment. Finally, to counter Russia’s deployment of 9K720 Iskander ballistic missiles and Su-35 fighters in Kaliningrad, Poland has decided to buy U.S.-made MIM-104 Patriot air defense systems and as many as 48 new multirole combat aircraft.[5]

But perhaps the most telling sign of Poland’s earnestness has been the repositioning of its combat forces. Notably, Poland has shifted its best armored forces eastward. Last year, it transferred the PL-91 tanks of the 1st Armored Brigade on the eastern edge of Warsaw to the 15th Mechanized Brigade in Giżycko, near the Polish border with Kaliningrad and the strategic Suwalki Gap that links Poland to Lithuania. Replacing the PL-91 tanks will be two battalions of Leopard 2A5 tanks, which will be transferred from the 34th Armored Cavalry Brigade on Poland’s border with Germany.[6]

Commitment to Deterrence

In the coming years, Poland’s total defense expenditures will likely exceed two percent of its GDP—well above what most other NATO countries are spending. Even so, Poland’s military modernization still has gaps. A big one lies in its small Soviet-era attack helicopter fleet. Though Poland is upgrading its 23 Mi-24 attack helicopters with new sensors and guided missiles, it needs a next-generation attack helicopter and far more of them.[7] A recent war game demonstrated that even with 120 attack helicopters, Poland would have trouble holding back a determined Russian assault before NATO rapid reaction forces could arrive.[8]

Ultimately, what is most notable about Poland’s military preparations is not how complete they are, but rather the scale and speed with which they are being made—which for a European country are extraordinary. While other NATO countries make excuses for their plodding attempts to enlarge or modernize their armed forces, Poland has done both, at the same time. Surely, Poland hopes for peace. But Poland also seems committed to building a stronger military to help preserve it.

About the author:
*Felix K. Chang
is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He is also the Chief Strategy Officer of DecisionQ, a predictive analytics company in the national security and healthcare industries. He has worked with a number of digital, consumer services, and renewable energy entrepreneurs for years. He was previously a consultant in Booz Allen Hamilton’s Strategy and Organization practice; among his clients were the U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Department of the Treasury, and other agencies.

Source:
This article was published by FPRI.

Notes:
[1] Andrew Monaghan, “The ‘War’ in Russia’s ‘Hybrid Warfare,’” Parameters 45(4), Winter 2015-2016, pp. 65-74.

[2] Gustav Gressel, “Russia’s Quiet Military Revolution and What It Means for Europe,” European Council on Foreign Relations Policy Brief, Oct. 15, 2015, p. 4.

[3] Remigiusz Wilk, “Polish Territorial Defence Force expanded to 53,000 personnel,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, Nov. 17, 2016; The Defence Concept of the Republic of Poland (Warsaw: Poland Ministry of National Defense, May 2017), pp. 46, 53; Remigiusz Wilk, “Poland to stand up Territorial Defence Force,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, Mar. 22, 2016.

[4] Remigiusz Wilk, “Poland seeks short-range ATGM,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, Oct. 9, 2017; Remigiusz Wilk, “Poland reinforces armour,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, Jul. 12, 2017.

[5] Bruce Jones, “Russian Duma confirms Iskander-M Kaliningrad deployment,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, Feb. 8, 2018; Nicholas Fiorenza, “First Polish Army unit receives full complement of Krab SPHs,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, Aug. 4, 2017; Remigiusz Wilk, “Poland receives first Rak 120 mm mortar vehicles,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, Jul. 3, 2017.

[6] Remigiusz Wilk, “Poland relocates Leopard 2A5 tanks to the east,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, Apr. 21, 2017.

[7] Charles Forrester, “Thales, Poland to integrate rocket launchers onto Mi-24s,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, Sep. 6, 2017.

[8] Reuben Johnson, “Baltic conflict simulation concludes Poland is wasting valuable time,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, Sep. 21, 2017.

West Silent As Genocide Lurks In Syria – OpEd

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By Trey Dimsdale, J.D.*

This month marks the seventh anniversary of the start of the Syrian Civil War. Syria was, albeit governed by dictator Bashar al-Assad, a stable nation but today it is in ruins, with so many fault lines and battlefields that it is nearly impossible to sort out the contending interests inside the nation. The ripples of the conflict have reached every continent.

The war has given rise to the Islamic State, has triggered a mass migration of 5.6 million refugees into Europe and other regions, and has resulted in, according to one estimate, more than 500,000 deaths – and counting. The sets of belligerents, co-belligerents, allies, and enemies are complex and fractured. Many are functioning as the ground proxies of foreign powers and groups. Most nations are fearful of engaging too deeply in the conflict lest they become trapped in an unwinnable quagmire, or worse, help to ignite a world war.

Northern Syria is an area that has seen intense fighting, bloodshed, and destruction, but it has become relatively peaceful. When the multi-ethnic population was faced with annihilation, anarchy, or assimilation into the Islamic State, a new government arose: the Democratic Federation of Northern Syria. This government is not recognized by the U.N. or any foreign nation. Still, the de-facto governing authority of the region is the only non-sectarian government in the Middle East and it has intentionally modeled itself after the United States, recognizing the rights of all people regardless of their faith, gender, or ethnicity. The region includes Afrin, a city situated in the northwestern corner of Syria on the border with Turkey. Afrin is the site of what has the potential to become a genocide on a Rwandan scale.

The city of Afrin was defended by various militias loosely organized into the Syrian Democratic Force (SDF). These militias’ alliances and histories are complex, and their resources and levels of preparedness vary. It is true that some factions within these militias have been linked to separatist violence in Turkey, but the fact remains that the SDF is what is presently standing between the people of Northern Syria and annihilation. Because Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan considers SDF to be an existential threat to his nation, NATO’s second largest standing army camped at the city’s gates, having cut off Afrin’s water, electricity, and cell service while bombing escape routes out the city. On March 18, Erdogan announced that the Turkish Army had taken control of the city.

Furthermore, the Syrian Islamic Counsel has announced a fatwa promising an extra allotment of virgins in paradise for those who kill Christians. Once one of the very few places in the Middle East where Christians and even Christian converts were allowed to practice their faith freely and openly, Afrin is now a hunting ground for jihadists to track down and massacre these followers of Jesus who are now their prey. Indeed, while some 90 percent of Syrians are Muslim, it is home to ancient Christian communities, mostly Eastern Orthodox. Since the start of the civil war, the Christian population has declined precipitously.

The consequences of Turkish success in this illegal and immoral offensive could be devastating to millions around the world. ISIS has been severely weakened over the past several months, but it has not been eliminated. The destruction of the Democratic Federation of Northern Syria eliminates the organization closest to the most fertile ground for ISIS to regroup, recruit, and train. A resurgent ISIS is not a pleasant prospect. Turkish victory would also mean the violent end to what could be a model for rebuilding post-conflict Syria and the wider Middle East. Democracy is delicate and takes time to solidify and stabilize. Northern Syria’s diverse people have banded together to create a fragile pluralistic, liberal oasis that should be protected and allowed to flourish. Instead, it is viewed as a threat and the world passively watches as it faces elimination for both political and religious reasons.

The jihadists who are assaulting innocents in Afrin do not represent the majority of the followers of Islam. It is reasonable to assume that few Muslim wants the type of violence and destruction that the world has seen in Syria the past seven years, and most surely desire to live in peace. But when people live in authoritarian societies, they inevitably understand themselves to be in a fight for survival, so it is easy to see how leaders from Erdogan down to jihadist militia commanders effectively frame the assault on Afrin as a holy war that is ultimately oriented toward destroying a system of ordering society that is antithetical to their own.

In 1993, Samuel B. Huntington warned, “the conflicts of the future will occur along the cultural fault lines separating … civilizations.” We are seeing Huntington’s warnings come to pass today. In the West, small outposts of non-Western culture either lash out beyond the outpost’s borders like the terrorists radicalized and trained in Molenbeek, Belgium, or the outposts attempt to operate according to imported values as in the child exploitation scandal in Rotherham, United Kingdom.

The Federation of Northern Syria has created a liberal, democratic outpost that has imported the values of the West, but in doing so it has implicitly rejected the oppression and rigidity of the competing worldview that surrounds it. The West has not only a moral duty to the people of Afrin to stop their genocidal massacre, but also a prudential duty to the citizens of the Federation to protect the normative ideals that enable the emergence of free, open, and pluralistic societies where all people can flourish—even those who reject the fundamental values that make that flourishing possible.

About the author:
*Trey Dimsdale came to the Acton Institute from Fort Worth, Texas, where he served as the Associate Director and Research Fellow in Law and Public Policy for the Richard Land Center for Cultural Engagement. At the Land Center, Trey helped to administrate a very active calendar of events that involved students, academics, and pastors from around the broader Christian world.

Source:
This article was published by the Acton Institute.

Europe Is Slowing Down And It’s Already Painted Into A Corner – OpEd

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By Daniel Lacalle*

Consensus remains euphorically optimistic about the eurozone.

However, the first data of 2018 are worrisome. While consensus expects a strong 2018 for Europe, the advanced data begins to question the optimistic expectations:

  • In the last two weeks, consensus estimates of earnings per share have been revised down 32% in the Eurostoxx 50 index and 13% in the Stoxx 600 index, according to Bloomberg.
  • Germany’s industrial production fell 0.1% in January, compared to a consensus estimate of a 0.5% rise.
  • In France, January Industrial Production fell by 2% and in Spain by 2.6%, both well below expectations, which pointed to a flat growth in both cases.
  • The Economic Surprise Index published by Citigroup plummeted in the eurozone, while it fell more moderately for the US.
  • The European Central Bank has revised downward its inflation estimates a tenth to 1.4% for 2018 while maintaining the 2019 estimate, as they always do, until they have to face the reality.

These data for Europe can be partly explained by a beginning of the year with milder temperatures, which have led to energy production falling more than expected — 7.5% in Spain — and, to a certain extent, due to a lower activity in construction. But none of those seasonal factors explain the huge decline in corporate earnings estimates and economic surprise. While forecasts of earnings per share growth remain close to +4.5%, it is evident that we are far from the euphoric prospects seen six months ago. And we are only three months into the year.

Slowing growth in Europe should not be a surprise. Economic data since October already showed a peak and gradual slowdown in growth. It has been evident in China and Japan as well.

Japan, the poster boy of Keynesian stimuli, showed us the harsh reality again. Central banks do not print growth. Japan grew by only 0.3% in the quarter and remained at a mere 1.2% annualized despite multiplying money supply and a monthly $70 billion stimulus.

Let us face it. Europe — like Japan — is growing as much as it can. The enormous burden of excessive government spending, high taxation and overcapacity adds to the disinflationary trends of aging of population and technology.

The risk for Europe is that it has once again bet its entire recovery on monetary policy, as it did in 2009. And, of course, when the central bank injects almost two trillion euros into the economy, you get some growth, but debt continues to grow and productivity suffers.

Productivity growth in Europe is practically stagnant. One of the reasons is the decline in capital intensity because the growth of gross investment is still very poor. This is to be expected. With the excuse of employment, investment in low productivity sectors is encouraged through subsidies, while high productivity sectors are fiscally penalized and overcapacity is perpetuated by keeping zombie companies alive. As the BIS alerts, the number of zombie companies has skyrocketed.

The eurozone keeps a certain tailwind thanks to low oil prices and low-interest rates, but it is worrisome to see that the reform impulse has disappeared in almost all countries and that, again, many think that money is free and liquidity is guaranteed.

The biggest concern is complacency. Indeed, some of these data will bounce back, but the abandonment of reforms and maintaining bureaucratic interventionism while the governments congratulate themselves for exports that do not depend on them, is more than dangerous. Indeed, the eurozone has achieved an enviable trade surplus, but it is not thanks to its political apparatus.

The eurozone has emerged from the crisis because it avoided the three most dangerous words in an economy, stimulating domestic demand. The three words that have led the European economies from crisis to crisis before and after the euro.

There is an additional worrisome component. The slowdown happens in a period in which interest rates are zero, deficit spending is the norm in 90% of the eurozone countries, and the ECB continues to buy €30 billion in assets monthly.

Pay attention to these risks. Even if there are seasonal effects, Europe shows some important weaknesses and recognizing it is important. Reforms must be recovered so that the end of the placebo effect of monetary stimuli does not result in a new and greater crisis.

About the author:
* Daniel Lacalle
has a doctorate in Economics and is the author of Escape from the Central Bank Trap, Life In The Financial Markets and The Energy World Is Flat.

Source:
This article was published by the MISES Institute.

Interview With Suresh Sidhu, CEO Edotco Group

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Pakistan’s Dawood Group and Malaysia’s edotco have become partners in Pakistan and the local company edotco Pakistan has revealed its plan. In an exclusive interview with Pakistan & Gulf Economist, Suresh Sidhu Chief Executive Officer of edotco Group talked about various facts of the joint venture. Following are the excerpts from his conversation.

Your company is mostly operating in South and South East Asia, are there some specific reasons for selecting this part of the world?

As you may be aware we are a Malaysia based company and believe that we know the countries located in this part of the world better. The other reason is that many of the markets have already reached saturation level, which does not offer chances offering next generation technology as well as rapid. As against this Cambodia, Bangladesh and our latest entry in Pakistan offers enormous growth potential. On top of all we consider that it is our obligation to first cater to the needs of our neighborhood and then try to expand our outreach.

What are the reasons for selecting Pakistan and what sort of growth do you foresee in the country?

While the numbers of reasons are many, I would prefer to refer a few only that makes Pakistan a preferred destination for investment. These are: 1) population of the country, 2) penetration of cellular phones, 3) growing market of data transfer, 4) business friendly policies of the Government of Pakistan and 5) economic indicators suggesting that per capita income is growing at a reasonably fast pace.

Pakistan has moved to 3G and 4G technologies at a very fast pace. And now it is the time to improve quality of service, outreach and on top of all bring down cost of doing business. The telcos have already demonstrated their commitment to Pakistan and its people by investing billions of dollars. We believe that a company like us can help the telcos in achieving the above stated targets and the ultimate beneficiaries will be Government and the people of Pakistan.

How much does your company and the local partners intend to invest and would there be new job opportunities

As our business model consists of acquiring the existing towers and also constructing towers in less served areas, we believe that the anticipated investment of over USD1.5 billion can reach Pakistan at a very fast pace due to the fullest supported by the regulatory authorities. Having said that I believe the quantum of investment is directly dependent on the quantum of business we are able to generate and the growth of number of satisfied customers of telcos and other clients.

Pakistan also suffers from high cost of electricity and outages, how do you intend to overcome these two contentious issues?

Pakistan is the only country that faces these two contentious issue. Our company offers solutions for both the problems. We mostly use solar or renewable sources of energy, which are dependable, cost efficient and above all spread less pollution. Since our company offers sharing of towers, we are confident that cost of energy, which is a huge component of the total operating cost, will be reduced substantially.

Are you confident that telcos will be willing to pass on the business of operations of their towers to a third party?

Had we and our potential clients not convinced on this sort of arrangement, the company would have not made major success in other markets. I am also convinced that telcos are keener in focusing on their core activities rather in the business of constructing and maintaining towers. I am pleased to share with you and the readers of Pakistan & Gulf Economist that we have already acquired 700 towers in Pakistan, Out these a reasonably large number of out of towers have been constructed by our company in FATA (federally administered tribal areas), which is a grossly un-served areas. We have almost finalized a deal with Jazz to procure their 13,000 towers, which are available for sharing with other telcos.

Has your company completed all the regulatory requirement of Pakistan?

We await formal approvals from different regulatory authorities that include: Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) and Pakistan Telecom Authority (PTA). We have already received the approval from the CCP and we await the approval from PTA, it is normal procedure, which requires some time. The positive point is that we are moving according to our plans, and don’t suffer from any hiccups.

Who are your joint venture partners in Pakistan?

In August, edotco, a subsidiary of Axiata Group and its Pakistani partner Dawood Hercules Corp announced a deal to acquire Deodar, the tower unit of Pakistan Mobile Communications Ltd, known by its brand name Jazz, with an investment of US$940 million. The edotco Group and Dawood Group have 55:45 stakes in the joint venture.

There are total 40,000 towers installed in Pakistan and tower sharing is likely to become a norm in Pakistan. The customers per tower in US stands at 2.2, while in Pakistan it hovers in the range of 1.2 to 1.3 that indicates the huge potential of the market that can be exploited with mutual consent. The market potential is evident from the fact that telcos have invested US$2 billion for procuring licenses of 3G/4G technologies to improve quality of services. We can help them in optimizing profit through cost saving.

Will some of the towers not become redundant after sharing becomes a norm?

I am an optimistic person and strongly believe that we will be able to move the surplus towers to lesser served area, which will help the telcos in extending their outreach as well as enhance their revenue. I am also sure that hundreds of new job opportunities will be created in the country that will help in further boosting per capita income of Pakistan

Where would you position your company over the next five years?

Keeping in view the population of the country penetration of cellar technology and growing demand for data transfer, I am sure edotco will become a significant player, both in terms of revenues and customers served. I am also sure that extending outreach of telcos will also enable them to offer innovative services that will improve the quality of life of Pakistanis.

Suresh Sidhu has been Chief Executive Officer of edotco Group since July 2014. edotco operates and manages a regional portfolio of over 26,000 towers across core markets of Malaysia, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Sri Lanka and Pakistan with 18,461 towers directly operated by edotco and a further 8,100 towers managed through a range of services provided.

At edotco, Suresh and his team have overseen the transformation that has produced one of the fastest growing tower companies in the world in terms of towers and tenancies, with growth from new build as well as M & A. Today, it is the 8th largest independent tower company globally.

Prior to joining edotco, Suresh was the Chief Corporate & Operations Officer (CCOO) of Celcom Axiata Berhad. Suresh has also previously held senior roles at head office and Dialog in the Axiata Group. In addition, his previous work experience includes roles with Maxis, the Boston Consulting Group and Sime Darby Berhad.

Suresh holds an undergraduate degree in Natural Sciences from Cambridge University and an MBA from INSEAD.

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