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Marijuana-Infused ‘Beer’ To Be Produced In United States

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The inventor of Blue Moon beer is launching three marijuana-infused drinks that promise intoxication without the alcoholic headache, USA Today reports.

Blue Moon Belgian White is a Belgian-style witbier brewed by MillerCoors under the name the Blue Moon Brewing Co. It was launched in 1995, and was originally brewed in Golden, Colorado.

The drinks, served chilled and initially only available in Colorado this fall, will contain no alcohol but will instead be infused with special marijuana formulas designed to mimic the effects of booze. Its developers say the drink will “hit” the user at the same pace as if they were drinking a beer.

Marijuana-infused foods typically take at least an hour to kick in, making it harder for consumers to accurately dose themselves.

“This is really about brewing great beers that beer drinkers love,” said Keith Villa, who developed Blue Moon Belgian Wheat and worked for MillerCoors for 32 years. “You’d just swap out an alcoholic beer for one of our beers.”

Several other companies offer cannabis beer, but they all lack the psychoactive compound, THC. Instead, they’re infused with hemp extract to give them a marijuana taste — and helps them grab headlines. Federal law prohibits brewers from using marijuana in their beers.


Vatican: Refutes Report Pope Francis Denied Hell Exists

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By Hannah Brockhaus

On Thursday the Holy See stated that a reported interview between Pope Francis and an Italian journalist, which claims the Pope denied the existence of hell, should not be considered an accurate depiction of Francis’ words, but the author’s own “reconstruction.”

A recent meeting between Pope Francis and Italian journalist Eugenio Scalfari, 93, was a “private meeting for the occasion of Easter, however without giving him any interview,” the March 29 communique stated.

“What is reported by the author in today’s article is the result of his reconstruction, in which the literal words pronounced by the Pope are not quoted. No quotation of the aforementioned article must therefore be considered as a faithful transcription of the words of the Holy Father.”

Scalfari, a self-proclaimed atheist, is the founder and former editor of Italian leftist newspaper La Repubblica. In an article published on the site March 29, Scalfari claims that Pope Francis told him, “hell doesn’t exist, the disappearance of the souls of sinners exists.”

Scalfari’s fifth meeting with Pope Francis, it is not the first time he has misrepresented the Pope’s words following a private audience.

In November 2013, following intense controversy over quotes the journalist had attributed to Francis, Scalfari admitted that at least some of the words he had published a month prior “were not shared by the Pope himself.”

In a meeting with the journalists of the Foreign Press Association of Rome in 2013, Scalfari maintained that all his interviews have been conducted without a recording device, nor taking notes while the person is speaking.

“I try to understand the person I am interviewing, and after that I write his answers with my own words,” Scalfari explained. He conceded that it is therefore possible that “some of the Pope’s words I reported, were not shared by Pope Francis.”

Scalfari also falsely reported that Pope Francis had made comments denying the existence of hell in 2015.

Vatican spokespersons have dismissed the texts of Scalfari as unofficial. In 2014, Fr. Federico Lombardi, past papal spokesperson, told CNA that “if there are no words published by the Holy See press office and not officially confirmed, the writer takes full responsibility for what he has written.”

Pope Francis has previously spoken about the existence of hell in public speeches, including at a prayer vigil in March 2014.

There he gave an address in which he said that members of the mafia should change their lives, “while there is still time, so that you do not end up in hell. That is what awaits you if you continue on this path.”

Citing Pope Paul VI, the Catechism of the Catholic Church says that Catholic teaching “affirms the existence of hell and its eternity. Immediately after death the souls of those who die in a state of mortal sin descend into hell, where they suffer the punishments of hell, ‘eternal fire.’ The chief punishment of hell is eternal separation from God, in whom alone man can possess the life and happiness for which he was created and for which he longs.”

Decade After Housing Bust, Mortgage Industry On Shaky Ground

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Despite tough banking rules put in place after last decade’s housing crash, the mortgage market again faces the risk of a meltdown that could endanger the U.S. economy, warn two Berkeley Haas professors in a paper co-authored by Federal Reserve economists. The threat reflects a boom in nonbank mortgage companies, a category of independent lenders that are more lightly regulated and more financially fragile than banks–and which now originate half of all US home mortgages.

“If these firms go out of business, the mortgage market shuts down, and that has dire Implications for the overall health of the economy,” said Richard Stanton, professor of finance and Kingsford Capital Management Chair in Business at Haas. Stanton authored the Brookings paper, “Liquidity Crises in the Mortgage Market,” with Nancy Wallace, the Lisle and Roslyn Payne Chair in Real Estate Capital Markets and chair of the Haas Real Estate Group. You Suk Kim, Steven M. Laufer, and Karen Pence of the Federal Reserve Board were coauthors.

Bank regulation fueled boom in nonbank lenders

During the housing bust, nonbank lenders failed in droves as home prices fell and borrowers stopped making payments, fueling a wider financial crisis. Yet when banks dramatically cut back home loans after the crisis, it was nonbank mortgage companies that stepped into the breach. Now, nonbanks are a larger force in residential lending than ever. In 2016, they accounted for half of all mortgages, up from 20 percent in 2007, the Brookings Institution paper notes. Their share of mortgages with explicit government backing is even higher: nonbanks originate about 75 percent of loans guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) or the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA).

Nonbank lenders are regulated by a patchwork of state and federal agencies that lack the resources to watch over them adequately, so risk can easily build up without a check. While the Federal Reserve lends money to banks in a pinch, it does not do the same for independent mortgage companies.

Scant access to cash

In stark contrast with banks, independent mortgage companies have little capital of their own and scant access to cash in an emergency. They have come to rely on a type of short-term funding known as warehouse lines of credit, usually provided by larger commercial and investments banks. It’s a murky area since most nonbank lenders are private companies which are not required to disclose their financial structures, so Stanton and Wallace’s paper provides the first public tabulation of the scale of this warehouse lending. They calculated that there was a $34 billion commitment on warehouse loans at the end of 2016, up from $17 billion at the end of 2013. That translates to about $1 trillion in short-term “warehouse loans” funded over the course of a year.

If rising interest rates were to choke off the mortgage refinance market, if an economic slowdown prompted more homeowners to default, or if the banks that extend credit to mortgage lenders cut them off, many of these companies would find themselves in trouble with no way out. “There is great fragility. These lenders could disappear from the map,” Stanton noted.

Risk to taxpayers

The ripple effects of a market collapse would be severe, and taxpayers would potentially be on the hook for losses posted by failed mortgage companies. In addition to loans backed by the FHA or VA, the government is exposed through Ginnie Mae, the federal agency that provides payment guarantees when mortgages are pooled and sold as securities to investors. The mortgage companies are supposed to bear the losses if these securitized loans go bad. But if those companies go under, the government “will probably bear the majority of the increased credit and operational losses,” the paper concludes. Ginnie Mae is especially vulnerable because almost 60 percent of the dollar volume of the mortgages it guarantees comes from nonbank lenders.

Vulnerable communities would be hit hardest. In 2016, nonbank lenders made 64 percent of the home loans extended to black and Latino borrowers, and 58 percent of the mortgages to homeowners living in low- or moderate-income tracts, the paper reports.

The authors emphasize that they hope their paper raises awareness of the risks posed by the growth of the nonbank sector. Most of the policy discussion on preventing another housing crash has focused on supervision of banks and other deposit-taking institutions. “Less thought is being given, in the housing finance reform discussions and elsewhere, to the question of whether it is wise to concentrate so much risk in a sector with such little capacity to bear it,” the paper concludes.

Stanton added, “We want to make the nonbank side part of the debate.”

DRC: Cutting Off Kabila’s Cobalt Fix – OpEd

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By Malik Ibrahim

Following in the footsteps of fellow tech giant Apple, Samsung has reportedly opened talks for a multi-year deal to purchase cobalt from Congolese mining company Somika in an effort to secure its supplies of the highly prized metal.

The conflict-ridden, politically dysfunctional DRC is home to approximately two-thirds of the world’s supplies of cobalt, a metal vital for manufacturing the lithium-ion batteries used in smartphones and electric vehicles (EVs). Despite such vast natural wealth, however, the Congolese people remain among the poorest on the planet (ranked 176th out of 187 countries by the UN’s Human Development Index). This is due in large part to Joseph Kabila, the country’s ruler since 2001, and his cronies occupying the highest levels of government.

With the mining industry in particular dogged by rumors of unethical practices, including hazardous working conditions and the widespread use of child labor, Samsung’s move to go to straight to the supplier is being seen as an attempt to guarantee ethical sourcing for their cobalt needs. The question is: With a dictator Kabila still calling the shots, will this road really lead anywhere?

Tightening his grip

Though Kabila’s presidential mandate came to an end in November 2016, he has exploited a legal loophole in the constitution which allows him to stay in power until his successor has been nominated. Since then, citing financial constraints and an inadequate electoral infrastructure, he has repeatedly postponed elections. Not surprisingly, his latest promises to hold elections by December have been met with growing skepticism by the international community and the Congolese people.

These promises look even less reliable when Kabila’s latest maneuvers are taken into account. Earlier this month – likely in recognition of the huge financial role that the country’s natural resource rents have played in keeping him in power – Kabila enacted a new mining code, which declares cobalt a “strategic mineral.” This designation allows the government to levy higher royalties on miners, as well as remove a stability clause that protected investment against changes to the fiscal and customs regime for 10 years.

Mining companies had lobbied against such a code for years, claiming its implementation would signal the demise of the cobalt industry in the DRC, but were forced into submission after a six-hour meeting with the president – though executives confirmed that international arbitration is still on the table. The new code represents a fivefold hike for miners, with royalties jumping from 2% to 10%.

Rotten to the core

In a country whose annual budget is a mere $5 billion, there is perhaps a case to be made that increasing governmental profits on national assets is a good thing – that is, if the increased royalties were intended to benefit the Congolese people. But even a cursory look at Kabila’s track record puts to rest even the pretense that the administration has the good of the people at heart.

According to a landmark report issued by international watchdog Global Witness, more than $750 million in mining revenues never reached national coffers between 2013 and 2015. Representing more than a fifth of all income from the mining industry, that figure swells even further (to $1.3 billion) when state bodies other than the national treasury are taken into account. Most of that money went missing after being paid to secretive state-owned mining giant Gécamines, which receives more than $100 million per year from private companies in the country’s mining sector, but passes on mere pennies to the state. Though Gécamines contributes little to the public coffers, it has somehow found the wherewithal to pay off loans for Dan Gertler, a friend of the president’s.

Mounting opposition

It is these kinds of practices that contribute to the country’s vast inequality, which – if corruption continues unabated – will only be exacerbated by the new mining code. Although Kabila has promised to step down after elections, his hardline stance regarding the mining industry suggests he has other ideas in mind.

Another factor which has facilitated Kabila’s grip on power thus far has been the regime’s constant harassment of the opposition and persecution of political leaders – but there are signs that the opposition’s disarray is changing fast. The emergence of a new coalition named “Together for Change” has united a fragmented political spectrum and could well pose the biggest threat to Kabila’s tenure to date. The movement is spearheaded by the businessman and politician Moïse Katumbi, who is currently in self-imposed exile due to charges of real estate fraud laid at his door by Kabila. Katumbi contends that all allegations are entirely fabricated and has vowed to return to his homeland by June to cement his candidacy.

For his part, Katumbi has condemned the introduction of the new mining code, claiming it only adds to the DRC’s climate of instability and further discourages foreign investment. If elected, he has promised to thrash out a fairer agreement with mining companies and stamp out corruption at the highest levels.

Paved with good intentions

Samsung’s decision to source its cobalt directly from the supplier might well represent the first step in respecting best practice guidelines, but it’s just a drop in the ocean when compared with the magnitude of the challenge. Without a more comprehensive reform of the entire mining and tax system, which would place transparency and integrity at every stage of the supply chain, Samsung’s move is little more than a “tick-the-box” exercise.

Unless such a scenario comes to pass, the proceeds from cobalt, copper, and the DRC’s myriad other exports will surely continue to find their way into the wrong pockets and stay there. If that happens, all the momentum Katumbi and the opposition can muster might not be enough to oust Kabila and save the Congolese people from decades of oppression and poverty.

The opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints expressed by the authors are theirs alone and don’t reflect any official position of Geopoliticalmonitor.com.

Stroke Affects More Than Just The Physical

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A new study looks at what problems affect people most after a stroke and it provides a broader picture than what some may usually expect to see. Stroke affects more than just physical functioning, according to a study is published in the online issue of Neurology®, the medical journal of the American Academy of Neurology.

“After a stroke, people who have only mild disability can often have ‘hidden’ problems that can really affect their quality of life,” said study author Irene L. Katzan, MD, MS, of the Cleveland Clinic in Ohio and a member of the American Academy of Neurology. “And for people with more disability, what bothers them the most? Problems with sleep? Depression? Fatigue? Not many studies have asked people how they feel about these problems, and we doctors have often focused just on physical disability or whether they have another stroke.”

The study involved 1,195 people who had an ischemic stroke, or a stroke where blood flow to part of the brain is blocked. They were asked questions about their physical functioning, fatigue, anxiety, sleep problems, thinking skills such as planning and organizing, how much their pain affects other aspects of their life and their satisfaction with their current social roles and activities.

Participants took the questionnaires an average of 100 days after their stroke, and about a quarter of the participants needed help from a family member to fill out the questionnaires. Researchers also measured their level of disability.

The people with stroke had scores that were considerably worse than those in the general population in every area except sleep and depression. Not surprisingly, the area where the people with stroke were most affected was physical functioning, where 63 percent had scores considered meaningfully worse than those of the general population, with an average score of 59, where a score of 50 is considered the population average.

On the question about whether they were satisfied with their social roles and activities, 58 percent of people with stroke had scores meaningfully worse than those of the general population.

“People may benefit from social support programs and previous studies have shown a benefit from efforts to improve the social participation of people with stroke, especially exercise programs,” said Katzan.

The thinking skills of people with stroke in executive function, or planning and organizing, were also affected, with 46 percent having scores that were meaningfully worse than the population average.

“The social participation and executive functioning skills are areas that have not received a lot of attention in stroke rehabilitation,” Katzan said. “We need to better understand how these areas affect people’s well-being and determine strategies to help optimize their functioning.”

Limitations of the study include that the questionnaires did not ask about other problems that can occur after stroke, such as communication issues. Also, the study participants had milder strokes on average than people with stroke overall and the average age of participants was 62, which is lower than the average age of 69 for people with stroke overall.

Gender Equality In Trump’s America – Analysis

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What has been the impact of Donald Trump’s decisions and public policies on the rights and liberties of women during the first year of his Presidency?

By María Solanas Cardín*

During his first year, President Trump overturned a number of measures approved by his predecessor for fighting against gender inequality, a significant problem in the US. His government has suspended numerous measures against labour and salary discrimination, sexual harassment in the workplace and sexual abuse in schools and universities, along with other policies guaranteeing sexual and reproductive rights to women (including US government support for the UN Population Fund). The intense social and political mobilisation of women (in particular) that has responded to this rollback of protections could translate, via the midterm elections in November, into a much stronger presence of women in the institutions of a country currently falling far short of gender equality in politics and whose society appears intensely divided on this issue.

Analysis

The gender gap, even larger in 2017

Although no country in the world has yet managed to completely close the gender gap, the US does not belong to the small group of countries that have come the closest to achieving this goal. The Davos World Economic Forum’s 2017 Global Report on the Gender Gap,1 ranks the US as 49th of 144 countries included in the study (Spain occupies position number 24). Although this 2017 position is like that of the 2016 report (which ranked the US 45th of 144 countries),2 dit is a significant retreat compared with the 2015 edition of the report, in which the US was ranked 28th out of the 145 countries analysed.3In only two years the US has dropped 21 positions in the ranking.

Figure 1. Global gender gap ranking, 2017-15
2017 2016 2015
US  49  45  28
Spain  24  29  25
Source: the author based on data from the Global Gender Gap Report 2015, 2016 y 2017.

The results of the ‘political empowerment’ sub-index were even worse: the U.S. dropped to number 96 in this ranking (Spain is 22nd), falling 20 places from the previous year. The scant presence of women in this regard is a common feature of both the legislative (the House of Representatives and Senate) and executive (Federal and state) branches.

Figure 2. Global gender gap report: US ‘political empowerment’ sub-index ranking, 2017-15
2017 2016 2015
Political empowerment 96 73 72
Source: the author based on data from the Global Gender Gap Report 2015, 2016 y 2017.

Although the US has closed the gender gap in education (as have 26 other countries, including Canada, France, Israel, the Netherlands, Brazil, Ireland, Australia, Belgium, Cuba and Finland, among others) and now ranks 19th in the economic opportunities sub-index (which measures the percentage of women in the working population, salary equality and professional position), the poor ranking in political empowerment suggests that despite achieving the equality of men and women in education, persistent barriers continue to block women from political power.

With respect to the legislative power, there has barely been any progress at all in recent years. The presence of women in the US Congress is far from gender parity. There are only 104 congresswomen –20 Senators (or 20% of the total) and 84 Representatives (19%)– and the number has not changed since 2015. Progress has been relatively limited, rising from 3% in 1971 to only 19% today.

Figure 3. Women in the US Senate (% of total)
Source: Center for American Women and Politics, Rutgers University and U.S. House of Representatives. Note: Shows the share of female senators at the outset of each term of Congress. Pew Research Center
Source: Center for American Women and Politics, Rutgers University and U.S. House of Representatives.
Note: Shows the share of female senators at the outset of each term of Congress.
Pew Research Center: Source: Pew Research Center.
Figure 4. Women in the US House of Representatives (% of total)
Source: Center for American Women and Politics, Rutgers University and U.S. House of Representatives. Note: Shows the share of female representatives at the outset of each term of Congress. Does not include delegates from the U.S. territories or District of Columbia. Pew Research Center
Source: Center for American Women and Politics, Rutgers University and U.S. House of Representatives.
Note: Shows the share of female representatives at the outset of each term of Congress. Does not include delegates from the U.S. territories or District of Columbia.
Pew Research Center Source: Pew Research Center.

Women are even less present in the executive branches of the 50 state governments: only four governors are women, a mere 8% at this level of political responsibility.

Figure 5. Female US State Governors (% of total)
Source: Center for American Women and Politics, Rutgers University. Pew Research Center
Source: Center for American Women and Politics, Rutgers University.
Pew Research Center. Source: Pew Research Center.

The gap is also notable in President Trump’s cabinet and administration: there are only three female Secretaries (of the Interior, Transportation and Education) compared with 13 men (occupying posts like Defence, State, Treasury and Justice).

Figure 6. Women in ministerial-level positions (%)
Source: Center for American Women and Politics, Rutgers University. Note: Percentages are based on the maximum number of women serving concurrently in a given administration. Includes only women presidential appointees confirmed by the Senate to Cabinet or Cabinet-level positions. Figure for Trump’s first term is the percent of women appointees confirmed as of March 7, 2017, out of the total number of Cabinet and Cabinet-level positions confirmed at that time. One woman served in a Cabinet-level position during Nixon's second term but the changing number of positions over the course of the term makes it impossible to provide a share. Pew Research Center
Source: Center for American Women and Politics, Rutgers University.
Note: Percentages are based on the maximum number of women serving concurrently in a given administration. Includes only women presidential appointees confirmed by the Senate to Cabinet or Cabinet-level positions. Figure for Trump’s first term is the percent of women appointees confirmed as of March 7, 2017, out of the total number of Cabinet and Cabinet-level positions confirmed at that time. One woman served in a Cabinet-level position during Nixon’s second term but the changing number of positions over the course of the term makes it impossible to provide a share.
Pew Research Center Source: Pew Research Center.

According to the most recent data available,4of the 410 positions requiring Senate approval for which Trump has made nominations, only 21% are women (while 79% have been men). Although Obama did not achieve parity in the appointments of Administration officials, he appointed women to 43% of the positions (and men to 57%). It is worth remembering in this regard that the US labour force, according to World Bank data, is 46% female and 54% male.

Given that the gender gap in political participation is already significant, any deterioration in female presence has a major impact. Furthermore, the gap in this realm requires proactive measures, sustained over time, to achieve and consolidate the presence of women in positions of political responsibility.

Dismantling the Obama agenda: the rollback of women’s rights and liberties

Key issues –like wage and salary equality, paid maternity leave (only 25% of women enjoy this right in the US, the only developed country that does not guarantee it), sexual health and reproductive rights, and gender violence– remain unresolved in the US.5

President Trump has proceeded, step by step, to dismantle the progress made by his predecessor on women’s rights and liberties, not only with respect to sexual and reproductive health (which directly conflicts with the ultraconservative ideology of his agenda) but also in the areas of labour discrimination and workplace sexual harassment, and in education (especially the universities) –objectives which should not conflict with any religious or moral beliefs (particularly sexual and reproductive rights)–. The decisions taken by the current Administration during 2017 have been in line with the treatment of women’s rights characteristic of Trump’s election campaign, during which he ostentatiously displayed his disdain for women with his sexist and chauvinist statements on many occasions.

Consistent with all of this, one of the first executive orders6the President signed was the prohibition of federal funds to organisations that advise other countries on voluntary pregnancy termination, applying the so-called ‘Global Gag Rule’ which stipulates that any NGO that receives federal funds should not promote abortion internationally, or provide any related services.

Applied by each Republican Administration since President Reagan first adopted it in 1984, and reversed by the Democratic Administrations of Presidents Clinton (in 1993 and 2003) and Obama (from January 2009 until January 2017), this rule imposes a financial block on any organisation that supports voluntary pregnancy termination in any part of the world.7Planned Parenthood, one of the most well-known organisations –with family planning and prenatal care programmes in many countries (in addition to providing such health services to more than two and half million patients in the US)– has been one of the NGOs most affected by the re-instatement of this rule.

In this same vein, alleging that activities of the UN Population Agency violated US abortion policy, in April President Trump suspended government funding8to this agency (which provides family planning and reproductive health services in more than 150 countries). As the UN agency pointed out, in 2017 the Population Fund contributed to saving the lives of thousands of women during childbirth and early child-rearing, and to preventing nearly a million pregnancies and 300,000 unsafe abortions. Due to the loss of the US contribution, the spokesperson for the Secretary General of the United Nations (who has claimed that the US decision could have devastating effects on the most vulnerable women and children and their families around the world) has appealed to other donors to increase their contributions.

In addition, the decision to eliminate the obligation of employers to include coverage for birth control in their employee health care insurance (guaranteed by Obamacare) has limited access to contraceptives for hundreds of thousands of women. The decision allows any company (as well as any university), justifying itself on ‘sincere religious beliefs or moral conviction’ to decline to provide coverage for contraceptives, a privileged exception previously only granted to churches and houses of worship.

Last August, the government eliminated one of the Obama Administration’s labour initiatives designed to fight against gender and minority discrimination in the labour market and workplace. The rule was finalised in September 2016 –after six years of research9on workplace discrimination, and consultations with business people, payroll management companies, academics and focus groups– and would have come into effect in March 2017. The rule would have obliged companies to detail their employee salaries in terms of ethnic group, race and gender, and to report the information to the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. The objective was to discover where the largest gaps were produced, and to help correct them. By eliminating this measure (considered by the current Administration as a regulatory drag on companies and of doubtful usefulness), the public administrations will continue to be deprived of the data that would identify the sources of gender inequality and, therefore, of the possibility of fighting against it.

According to a recent survey, 42% of women claim to have experienced gender discrimination in the workplace.

Figure 7. Women who claim to have experienced workplace gender discrimination

Furthermore, the Fair Pay and Safe Workplaces rules,10–adopted by the Obama Administration to forbid companies with federal contracts from keeping secret incidents of sexual harassment and workplace discrimination– was also overturned. This 2014 executive order stopped companies with federal contracts –which collectively employ 26 million people– from forcing their employees to resolve harassment cases by means of arbitration (a typical practice to prevent cases and details from becoming public). The rules put in place by Obama’s executive order protected women in two ways: (1) it made their salaries transparent; and (2) it expressly prohibited employers from forcing arbitration on sexual harassment cases. It is worth remembering that a woman earns, on average, 83 cents per dollar earned by a man.

Other measures of the previous Administration to protect victims of sexual harassment and abuse in schools and universities were also rescinded. The document in question, approved in 2011, defined sexual abuse and established a new paradigm for school policy on sexual abuse cases. With these measures in place, any evidence was sufficient to begin an investigation. The new norm approved by the Trump Administration toughens the conditions for launching an investigation (requiring ‘clear and convincing evidence’),11Women’s rights organisations claim that this will produce a ‘chilling effect’ upon the reporting of sexual aggression and make campuses less safe. The problem of campus violence is not insignificant.12

One in five women and one in every 16 men are sexually assaulted on university campuses. More than 90% do not press charges.

However, it is also true that the ‘checks and balances’ of the US model have played a key role in protecting women’s rights. Some states, like California, Delaware, Maryland, New York and Virginia, have launched legal suits against the federal decision to suppress access to contraceptives; other states, like Hawaii, Maine and Nevada, have guaranteed access to birth-control methods for a year. Nevertheless, the impact of these federal decisions will be difficult to reverse, and they will certainly have a significant impact on the life of women, especially the most vulnerable with the fewest resources.

Finally, it should be noted that the first federal budget presented by President Trump13 did not contain –literally, at all, and for the first time in many years– a single reference to women. This is in stark contrast with the budgets from previous fiscal years. To cite just the most recent examples, the last three Obama budgets included significant mention of and support for women’s rights:

  • The FY2017 budget recognised the contribution of women to the labour force and the promotion of women’s rights in the world.
  • The FY2016 budget included investment in health, education and security for girls and teenagers, migrant women, the Nutrition Programme for women and children, and support measures for pregnant women.
  • The FY2015 budget included support for the promotion of women in the STEM fields –science, technology and mathematics– and an important package of investments and other efforts in the fight against gender violence..

One final point: many positions created by the previous Administration to promote women’s rights remain vacant, including the Ambassador at Large for Global Women’s Issues in the Department of State14and the Director of the Office on Violence against Women in the Department of Justice. The White House Council on Women and Girls –an institution created by President Obama with the object of assuring coordination between all the agencies and units of the Administration on issues affecting women and girls– also remains inactive.

Women: leading role in the November 2018 midterm elections?

The election of President Trump has generated greater interest in politics –especially among Democrats, and particularly among women–. Indeed, the Trump victory has served a catalyst for the social mobilisation of women and feminist organisations.

Figure 8. Greater interest in politics among women

The largest recent demonstrations in the US took place on 20 January 2017 in many cities across the country (as well as in many other countries) to protest President Trump’s gender policies, reminding people that women’s rights ‘are human rights’. More demonstrations were convoked in many US cities on 20 and 21 January 2018 (and again in other countries), this time carrying the motto ‘power to the polls’. Therefore, the Trump Presidency could have a direct effect on the political participation of women, one of the areas, as mentioned above, where the gender gap is the widest.

The midterm elections coming up in November 2018 –which will elect 33 senators, all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 19 state governors– could bring to the fore this effect and result in greater female political participation. The fielding of female candidates by the Democratic Party is beginning to reach unprecedented proportions. Organisations like EMILY’s list,15a political action committee (PAC) dedicated to supporting female Democratic candidates, and other similar formations are playing an active role in providing training and consulting to women candidates at the state and local levels. Since the election of President Trump, more than 26,000 women have contacted EMILY’s list to ask for support for their possible candidacies.

According to the most recent data from the Center for American Women and Politics of the Eagleton Institute for Politics at the Rutgers University,16 the number of female candidates for the House of Representatives has grown exponentially to 397 candidates (217 Democrats and 80 Republicans), in contrast with the actual number of 84 current female officeholders (62 Democrats and 22 Republicans).

There will also be gubernatorial elections in 33 states in which there are projections for more women candidates. According to the most recent data17 upwards of 79 women (48 Democrats and 31 Republicans) will run for state-level executive office in a wide range of states.

It will not be possible to undertake a deeper evaluation of the importance of this political mobilisation –and to know just how significant a percentage of women will ultimately be running in the 6 November elections– until the results of the upcoming primary elections (which begin in a few weeks) can be factored in. But without any doubt the number of female pre-candidates has already reach a historic high which could, if translated into definitive candidates and into votes on 6 November, contribute to an historic expansion of the presence of women at the federal legislative and state executive levels of government.

Perceptions of gender equality in the US

Public opinion on matters of gender equality reflect a deep division in the country, according to recent studies by the Pew Research Center. This division is explained by, among other reasons, ‘the partisan rupture that impregnates American values and culture in these times’. The deep polarisation of US society, made plain by the last presidential election, is also reflected in the public’s perception of the current gender equality situation and of the need (or lack of it) to use public policy to advance gender equality.

Although the majority of Americans agree that women should have the same rights as men (82%), only half believe that the country needs to advance further, and 39% believe ‘things should stay as they are’.

In addition, the division between Democrats and Republicans is notable. While Democrats are very unsatisfied with the country’s progress on this issue (69% believe the country has not progressed enough to guarantee equal rights for women), only 26% of Republicans consider that there is more to do, and 54% believe the situation is good as it is.

Figure 9. On the need for further progress on gender equality

The differences between men and women are also important. While 57% of women believe the country has not progressed enough (versus 33% who believe it has), only 42% of men do not believe the country has made enough progress on gender equality, and as many as 44% feel this situation is good as it is. If we combine the gender and political positioning variables, then 74% of female Democrats and 64% of male Democrats believe the country still has work to do to achieve gender equality. On the other hand, the percentage of female Republicans that feel that not enough has been done only comes to 33% (along with only 20% of Republican men). Furthermore, 22% of Republican men and 14% of Republican women believe the country has gone ‘too far’.

Figure 10. Six of 10 women believe not enough has been done to achieve gender equality

US public opinion of the progress of women’s rights and gender equality reflects a clear polarisation in the country, but it also points to the difficulties inherent in overcoming stereotypes. This is clear from the fact that 44% of men describe the situation as good and 22% of Republican men and 14% of Republican woman believe that the country ‘has gone too far’ with regard to gender equality.

Conclusions

There is no doubt that President Trump is treating gender equality and related issues with a deeply conservative (and anti-feminist) ideological slant, without accounting for the consequences that this inequality between men and women has for social and economic stability. His openly sexist and chauvinist electoral campaign presaged restrictions on rights and liberties already gained by women, and he has already begun to implement such an agenda during the first year of this term.

All of the initiatives underway will have an impact, to a larger or lesser degree, on the lives of women and their families, especially the most underprivileged. The lack of female role models in positions of political responsibility, the culture of silence surrounding cases of gender violence, the salary gap and the lack of free access to family planning, all imply barriers to real and effective equality –in addition to perpetuating the gender stereotypes which impede the cultural change still pending in most countries– as well as significant related economic losses.

Nevertheless, gender inequality in the US cannot be attributed to the current President or Administration. For a long-consolidated democracy like the US, and as the leading economic power of the world, the county has long had a very wide gap and only in recent years were some concrete measures adopted to combat gender inequality.

The ultimate impact on women’s rights of the Trump Presidency is still difficult to assess, but it is likely that the tendency recently begun will continue, and possibly broaden in scope. In any case, given that closing the gap requires permanent, sustained measures, the new policies will contribute to further widening the inequalities, making the achievement of real gender equality more difficult and distant.

Another effect of President Trump’s first year –unforeseeable and certainly unwelcomed by the current Administration– has been the mobilisation of women and feminist organisations through many large demonstrations over the past year. These unprecedented political demonstrations, along with the hundreds of female candidates slated to run in the upcoming mid-term elections, represent a firm rejection of the presumed ‘new normality’ of an openly chauvinist and sexist president. Should the primaries confirm these women candidates –and then convert themselves into electoral victories– a change in the balance of power between the parties could occur, along with a significant increase in the presence of women in the Senate, the House of Representatives and in State-level executive offices.

Finally, one should not underestimate the global impact of President Trump’s position on gender equality, not only in terms of budget appropriations to UN organisations working in favour of gender equality but also in terms of influence over other countries. The commitment of the US to Goal Number Five of the Sustainable Development Goals –gender equality and empowerment of all women and girls by 2030– is now seriously in doubt.

Original version in Spanish: La igualdad de género en la América de Trump.

About the author:
*María Solanas Cardín
, Project Manager, Elcano Royal Institute | @Maria_Solanas

Source:
This article was published by Elcano Royal Institute.

Notes:
1 2017 Global Gender Gap Report.

5 María Solanas (2016), “Género y Elecciones Presidenciales en EEUU 2016”, ARI nº 67/2016, Real Instituto Elcano.

Raid The Defense Budget To Build The Wall? – OpEd

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By Seth Cropsey*

Earlier this month, President Trump graciously told Marines at the Miramar Air Station in San Diego that “we support you, we love you, and we will always have your back.” A few days later the president signed a bill to increase defense spending.

The bill would start to address two problems that face the U.S. military: readiness and modernization. Fatal collisions of U.S. Navy ships in the West Pacific and inordinately high Marine Corps aircraft accident rates demonstrate readiness problems. The ageing of U.S. military equipment and insufficient levels of forces to deter rising potential competitors—such as China—demonstrate the need for modernization.

Yesterday, according to news reports, President Trump suggested that the defense budget should pay $25 billion from just-passed defense funds to pay for the wall he plans to build on the U.S.-Mexican border. This would be a mistake. $25 billion, for example, is approximately the amount that Congress allocated for this year to meet the president’s campaign promise to build a larger combat fleet.

Let’s hope that President Trump reconsiders. He is right that U.S. national security depends on rebuilding our military. But, if he changes his priority, it’s up to Congress to decide. The money that Congress appropriated for defense was meant to address critical problems with our military. Building a wall is not one of these problems. Only Congress has the authority to change how money that was appropriated for one purpose can be applied to another. If the president persists, let’s hope that Congress acts responsibly to stay on course to strengthen America’s military.

About the author:
*Seth Cropsey
, Director, Center for American Seapower

Source:
This article was published by the Hudson Institute

China’s Belt-And-Road Initiative: Future Bonanza Or Nightmare? – Analysis

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Despite its growing prominence internationally, China’s Belt-and-Road Initiative (BRI) is facing a host of challenges. Unless these are addressed, Beijing will find the BRI ending up more a nightmare than a bonanza.

By Linda Lim*

Xi Jinping’s signature Belt-and-Road Initiative, BRI (which the rest of the world still calls One-Belt-One-Road or OBOR) has attracted a great deal of global attention. The United States and some European Union countries are apprehensive that BRI signals China’s attempt to dominate the two-thirds of the world’s population, and 40 percent of global trade, accounted for by BRI countries.

BRI links China with faster-growing emerging markets, providing an alternative to slow-growing, increasingly protectionist Western markets, and outlets for its abundant domestic savings and industrial excess capacity. Developing infrastructure and relationships in BRI countries will help private and state companies venturing abroad, where they will learn to compete internationally and thus “become stronger”, while also moving China “closer to (the world’s) centre stage”, as President Xi wishes.

Challenge of Infrastructure Play

But funding infrastructure projects is always a challenge. They are large, capital-intensive and expensive, with long construction and payback periods, thus involving high risk. They are also characterised by externalities or spillovers: because social exceed private costs and benefits, left to private investors there will be under-investment.

Because of this, public funding is the most common funding model for infrastructure projects. Governments can borrow at lower cost than private entities, given an implicit sovereign guarantee against default. They have a longer time-horizon, and investing to prioritise social benefits in instances of “market failure” is their responsibility.

Consortia are also a popular model, involving public-private partnerships, and multilateral and regional agencies, such as the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Consortia can raise more capital and obtain more expertise from diverse multiple sources, and reduce the risk for any individual lender/investor as well as the borrower/project.

In developing countries capital is scarce, so at a premium, while borrowing from cheaper foreign sources requires repayment in foreign exchange, adding currency risk. Governance risk arises from governments often lacking the expertise to evaluate, implement and monitor projects, and leakage through corruption is common, increasing cost, delay and quality problems.

Political and Other Risks

There is also political risk, since the distribution of costs and benefits may not be equitable, and social unrest may result from disputes over land appropriation and compensation, labour, and environmental consequences such as harm to local farming, forests and fisheries. Authoritarian governments are not transparent, and may use coercion to resolve disputes, while democratic governments may change and demand changed terms.

BRI countries pose additional high country risks. Many are low-income so lack capital, human resources, and capacity to earn export revenues to pay for imports of materials and equipment for BRI projects, posing high risks of debt and currency crisis. There may be domestic political or economic turmoil, unstable or unpopular governments, and contentious relations with neighbours sharing or affected by projects like dams.

A recent study by the Centre for Global Development identified eight countries (Djibouti, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Pakistan, Montenegro, Tajikistan) where the immediate marginal impact of BRI projects in the lending pipeline would raise their debt-to-GDP and debt-to-China ratios to “high risk” levels.

Even without such debt concerns, China’s eagerness for infrastructure projects in BRI countries may not mesh with perceived local needs and could heighten political risk for host governments who collaborate with them.

For example, in relatively developed Malaysia, one business person I interviewed said: “Most of the OBOR initiatives in Malaysia are not positive for the country. The large infrastructure projects like railways and ports are strategic for China but will be white elephants for Malaysia. The deal terms are poorly contrived for Malaysia. But Malaysia only has itself to blame for letting its politicians make such deals.”

Chinese Business Model

The preferred Chinese infrastructure business model does not help win local support, based as it is on exporting Chinese equipment, materials, management and labour to the recipient country so there is minimal local content, job creation, training and supplier linkages. This adds to the perception that BRI projects are for China’s rather than host countries’ benefit.

As another business respondent put it: “The Chinese are relentless in pursuit of profit/advantage without considering negative implications for local communities.” Chinese companies have been accused of poor business practices, such as undercutting local suppliers, failing to honour contracts and to comply with local regulations, while delivering inferior quality and reliability, such as plagued Chinese-built power plants in Indonesia.

Another business person familiar with BRI projects told me: “Big Chinese companies are unfamiliar with private enterprise and market economies, because they are all linked to the Chinese government and follow a top-down mode of operation. They are comfortable only with G2G deals.”

Chinese companies’ preference for working through local political leaders, rather than directly with communities affected by their projects, may mean that project social costs are not adequately calculated and compensated for. This results in protests which can stall projects, as has happened with the Myitsone dam and Kunming-Kyaukphyu railway and oil-and-gas pipeline in Myanmar.

If the local leaders China works with are incompetent, corrupt, greedy or unpopular, this rubs off on them, while dissatisfaction with Chinese projects can rub off on the local leaders who collaborate with them — in both cases, heightening political risk.

China’s Creeping Arrogance

In Sri Lanka, the government’s leasing Hambantota port to a Chinese state-owned company in payment of debts incurred for its construction contributed to its local electoral losses in February 2018. And in Indonesia, there are rumours that President Jokowi’s encouragement of Chinese investments could undermine his prospects for reelection in 2019.

Chinese companies also lack experience operating in ethnically and culturally diverse countries, and are frequently accused of lacking respect for local practices and customs, such as observation of Muslim prayer times and the fasting month. They show no interest in learning about or understanding local populations (or eating their food), displaying what one of my respondents called “unconscious arrogance due to their superior feeling of the success of China”.

This can backfire on local ethnic Chinese populations in Southeast Asia, who already dominate business in some countries, are favoured as local partners by Chinese companies, and would be resented if seen to benefit disproportionately from China investments. Other local Chinese worry that the unpopularity of high-profile Chinese projects could exacerbate latent anti-Chinese feelings that could adversely affect them.

What Can China Do to Correct Image?

What can China do to counter these destabilising negative perceptions of BRI projects?

First, Chinese companies should undertake only projects which are financially, economically and politically viable, and environmentally and socially sustainable. Including such calculations means many projects will not make the cut. Second, they should partner with other lenders and investors, from different countries. Diversification reduces risk, and dilutes the image of being Chinese.

Third, they should make investment decisions together with the host country, not unilaterally, to ensure that the projects are “mutually advantageous” as claimed. Fourth, they can help recipient countries to repay their loans by earning foreign exchange, for example, by establishing industrial zones for companies relocating labour-intensive manufacturing from China, and by developing markets in China for their exports.

Fifth, they should employ better public relations. This includes being transparent and communicating with local media and host communities about project rationales. And they should reduce high visibility ̶ opening ceremonies should include other foreign partners and investors as well as more locals, and projects should be “branded” not as “Chinese” but as “national” projects, to reduce fears of a loss of sovereignty.

Sixth, they should employ locals as labour and management, provide technical and skills training, and work with all stakeholders, not just the government or party-in-power. In addition, they should train, encourage and expect their Chinese employees to understand, respect and engage with local cultures. All this requires fundamental changes in corporate culture and business model.

Be ‘Less Chinese’

In short, to be successful, BRI projects should become less Chinese. While this might seem to run counter to China’s hope for “soft power”, the billions invested will otherwise not deliver, and may even undermine, its foreign policy goals.

Today, with a massive US$57 billion investment in energy and infrastructure projects in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the Pakistan government has to employ a 15,000-strong military force to protect Chinese workers. Despite this, in February 2018, a Chinese shipping executive was shot dead in his car in Karachi in “a targeted attack”. If China does not learn to adapt to life outside the Great Wall, the Belt-and-Road Initiative risks turning into a foreign policy nightmare, not a bonanza.

*Linda Lim is NTUC Professor of International Economic Relations 2018 at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Relations (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. She is also Professor Emerita of Corporate Strategy and International Business at the Stephen M. Ross School of Business, University of Michigan. This is based on her recent RSIS seminar on the BRI.


Trade War: China Unlikely To Retaliate On Equal Term – Analysis

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Fears for trade war loomed large after Trump administration slapped tariffs on steel and aluminum. On March 1, USA imposed a 25 percent tariff on imported steel and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum. Tension mounted with Trump’s furtherance of protectionism when the US administration was considering tariff slap on US$ 50 billion worth of sensitive products. The target was China. Reason, USA dipped into wide trade deficit due to Chinese dumping of goods. In 2017, China shared 47 percent ( US$ 374 billion) of USA ‘s global trade deficit in goods trade ( US$796 billion). Till now, China refrained from taking any retaliatory actions.

Arguments were levelled against the Chinese equivalent power to retaliate against Trump’s protectionism. According to Mr Gary Hufbaucer, Senior Fellow at Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, China is to loose more than USA , because China is more dependent on exports to USA than vice-versa and USA is in a better position to find alternative market than in China.

According to World Bank, China’s trade accounts for 37 percent of its GDP. China’s big reliance on trade suggests that it will face more damages if it adopts equal retaliatory measures against Trump’s tariff hikes.

Currently, Chinese President is besieged by big domestic challenges. The revision of Chinese Constitution, which will permit Mr Xi Jinping to be the perpetual head of Communist Party after the expiry of his second term and induction of new economic model to revitalize the economy based on domestic consumption, are posing big challenges to President Xi Jinping.

Interestingly, the paradox of the USA’s high tariff, which targeted China, is that both steel and aluminum were not the linchpin for wide trade deficit with USA. Chinese steel export accounts for merely 2 per cent of USA’s total imports of steel.

Why was then steel became the scapegoat for Trump’s salvo to China? The investigation shows that China was dumping steel through third country, Vietnam. Exports of steel from Vietnam to USA spurred 300 percent in 2016. USA investigation revealed that after anti-dumping duties and anti-subsidy duties were imposed on corrosion – resistant steel from China in 2015, China was rerouting steel exports through Vietnam to evade the duties. The Commerce Department said that after the anti-dumping duties in 2015, shipment of cold rolled sheets from Vietnam into USA shot up to US $ 295 million annually from US $ 11 million. The US Department argued that these exports were originated from China. It claimed that although the product was processed in Vietnam, as much as 90 percent of the value was originated in China.

Paranoid by the dumping of Chinese steel through Vietnam, the US Commerce Department slapped anti-dumping duty on steel exports from Vietnam in 2017, which were originated from China.

Currently, the USA imports 90 percent of primary aluminum used domestically. Aluminum are used to manufacture diverse products from beer cans to fighter jets. US government argued that there has been a dramatic fall in aluminum industry after China forayed in the world market at a price where US makers struggled to survive. The number of operational aluminum smelters in USA dropped from 23 in 1993 to 5 in 2016. There is only plant in Hawesville, Kentucky, which makes high purity aluminum, required for fighter jets. If this plant is shut, USA has to depend completely on imports, according to US Commerce.

Besides domestic challenges, the USA’s high tariff on steel and aluminum are unlikely to damage the Chinese industries. Even though China is world’s biggest producer of steel and alumina, rise in the domestic consumption will insulate the Chinese industries.

Over 90 percent of the steel produced in China is consumed domestically, according to Mr Wang Guoqing, a senior analyst at Beijing based Industry consultant. In 2017, China produced steel amounting 830 million tonne and exported 75 million tonne.

Similarly, export of aluminum does not hold a big stake in Chinese production . In 2017, export accounted for merely 7.5 percent of annual production. Of this export, USA accounted for only 12 percent. In a way, only 1 percent of Chinese exports of aluminum went to the USA.

Given this basket of export and production share, which suggests China’s reliance on export is minimal, China will be reticent to bear a major risk by retaliating USA’s protectionism on equal terms.

India too was abused for trade surplus with USA, despite its share in the total USA trade deficit was insignificant. India’s share in the USA’s total trade deficit was 2.7 percent.

Further, the basket of India’s major items of exports to USA are not prone to fuel up the USA’s trade deficit. India’s major items of exports to USA are gems and jewelry, textiles, ready made garments and drugs and pharmaceuticals. In 2016-17, together these four product groups accounted for 54 percent of India’s exports to USA. Steel and aluminum are not the major items of India’s export to the USA. India’s share in prime steel imports in USA is just 1.3 percent , while in aluminum, it is 1.1 percent, according to Chairman of Engineering Export Promotion Council.

The USA alleged that India’s export incentives are WTO non-compliant. It threatened to drag India into WTO for its export subsidies. Under the WTO rules, developing countries , who crossed the threshold of US $1000 per capita GNI per annum for three years in row, are not entitled to grant subsidies in exports. USA alleged that India surpassed this limit in 2013, 2014 and 2015. India asked for eight years periods to phase out the subsidies.

For India, major concern is non-tariff and not the tariff barriers. The USA accused China for IPR ( Intellectual Property Rights) theft and mandatory transfer of technology in the investment rules. India is already under the brickbats of IPR rules by developed nations for its pharmaceuticals products. If India is looped in the USA’s rage over IPR bungling, it will affect India in the long term, according to JP Morgan.

(Views are personal)

Secession Is Going Mainstream – OpEd

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By Ryan McMaken*

If it seems like secession is become a more frequent topic in the global media, it’s not just your imagination.

In recent years, talk of political separatist movements have become not only more commonplace, but are increasingly discussed as reasonable alternatives to the status quo.

Historically, of course, established states have long sought to portray secession movements as unsavory forms of agitation pushed only by extremists.

In the US, of course, secession has long been portrayed as strictly the realm of right-wing zealots motivated by racism, or even something worse.

In 2014, however, it became increasingly clear that this strategy’s days were numbered. 2014, of course, was the year that 45 percent of Scottish voters voted to secede from the United Kingdom. Less than two years later, a majority of British voters voted for secession from the European Union — in spite of a hysterical scare campaign waged by pro-EU activists.

These British secession movements were immune from the usual “arguments” against secession made in the United States. After all, were we to believe that British secessionists were pushing secession so they could impose slavery within their borders?

Had it been used, such a charge would have been laughed at, so this new type of secession was generally ignored, or described as something other than secession.

Moreover, the Scottish secession was problematic for the global left in general. Secession movements had often been portrayed by global elites as reactionary or at least the sort of thing that conservative malcontents would indulge in. But in Scotland, the secession movement was largely a product of the mainstream leftist parties. In the wake of the Scottish referendum, we were to believe that 45 percent of Scottish voters were extremist malcontents? Again, such a charge would have rightly been viewed as ludicrous.

Since Brexit, two of the most notable secession movements — California and Catalonia — have also been products of the left. Given the mainstream media’s fondness for the left, the effect of this has been to push secession out of the “extremist” shadows and into the realm of allowable — if eccentric — political discourse.

Thus, it’s not shocking that The Washington Post has now featured a study of secession movements which shows that they are proliferating. There really are more of them now than in the past:

The new in vogue term, apparently, is “sovereignty referendums”:

Since Massachusetts kicked off the trend in 1776, more than 630 sovereignty referendums have been held. There has been a surge in recent years, as you can see in the figure below. The 1990s alone saw a record 110 sovereignty referendums, largely because of the numerous autonomy and independence referendums triggered as the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia broke up. The 2000s saw 88 more sovereignty referendums, many related to whether the European Union should continue expanding eastward…

Why the surge? Although each referendum has its own history, we can find some general reasons. Perhaps most important, conflicts over sovereignty have proliferated. According to a recent study, since 1945 the number of ethnic movements demanding greater self-determination has increased more than tenfold. Many former colonies voted on their independence…

What’s more, when international actors intervene in nationalist conflicts they increasingly promote sovereignty referendums. For instance, in 1999 Portugal brokered a referendum in East Timor, which was administered by the United Nations. Some observers have even suggested that there is a new international norm emerging requiring referendums to legitimate territorial realignments.

This isn’t to say that secession is now an easy thing. Status-quo states almost uniformly oppose secession movements within their own borders. This is because states naturally seek to enlarge themselves and increase their monopoly power over larger and larger territories. When geographic territories secede, they can no longer be directly taxed — and states don’t like to give up their taxing powers. In many cases, seceding territories offer geopolitical advantages that the status-quo states are unlikely to relinquish.

In some cases, if the status-quo states are convinced that the seceding territory will continue to be friendly toward them, secession may be tolerated. This was the case when Australia and Canada were granted independence from the United Kingdom, and when the Philippines was granted independence from the United States. In all cases, it is assumed that the former territories will be reliable military allies in case of global war.

In more conflict-prone parts of the globe, however, matters are less clear cut. As The Post notes:

Unilateral secession referendums, in particular, are rarely implemented. Neither Catalonia nor Iraqi Kurdistan has a clear path to independent statehood. Nor do Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh region, Bosnia’s Srpska region, or Georgia’s Abkhazia and South Ossetia, all of which voted for independence during the 1990s.

In all of these cases, the status-quo states fear that secession may lead to advantages for competing states.

But, it is increasingly accepted that secession and “sovereignty referendums” are multi-faceted in their motivating factors.

Moreover, research suggests that secession movements can also help to promote peace. In his dissertation, Micha Germann concluded that “self-determination referendums are likely to create a positive dynamic and increase chances for peace … they are likely to foster perceptions of fair decision-making … they may contribute to a reversal of hostile images … they may lead to referendum-related coalitions that are willing to support their outcome.”

And perhaps most importantly these movements may “increase the durability of settlements.”

However, to gain these benefits — according to Germann — secession movements must come at the end of a negotiation period in which the status quo state is convinced to allow for the referendum and abide by its results.

Of course, states aren’t likely to sign off on these referenda unless pressure is applied, whether via international pressure, domestic protest movements, or even through violence. Secessionists have to find some way to make secession the least bad option for a state.

At the core of all of this, however, is the realization that it is morally objectionable and absurd to insist that current borders of a state are forever sacrosanct that everyone currently within a certain state must remain forever so.

Given the perpetual lip service paid by modern states toward “democracy,” it’s becoming increasingly difficult to dismiss sovereignty referenda without looking hypocritical.

The realization that secession can alleviate intrastate conflicts would not come as news to Ludwig von Mises who advocated for referenda as a tool in secession and the readjustment of national borders to align with nationalist, linguistic, and cultural trends.

Sometimes, Mises noted, the only way to protect the rights of minority groups is for them to secede from one state, and perhaps join another.

For Mises, who was an expert on the nationalist movements of nineteenth century Europe, and who supported the Catalonian secessionist movement in his own day, “sovereignty referenda” were a natural and reasonable way to adjust political realities to cultural and ideological realities. 

Allowing majority-controlled governments to impose their values and agenda on minority population was akin to military occupation in Mises’s mind, and required secession as a solution.

Mises, however, was writing on these matters in the 1920s, when nationalist, totalitarian, and fascist movements took a dim view of secession, to say the least.

Today, however, it looks like Mises’s pragmatic and savvy views on secession were a glimpse into what many researchers are now coming to realize about secession and its benefits.

About the author:
*Ryan McMaken (@ryanmcmaken) is the editor of Mises Wire and The Austrian. Send him your article submissions, but read article guidelines first. Ryan has degrees in economics and political science from the University of Colorado, and was the economist for the Colorado Division of Housing from 2009 to 2014. He is the author of Commie Cowboys: The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre.

Source:
This article was published by the MISES Institute.

Bahrain Threatens Online Crackdown, Says HRW

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Bahrain’s interior minister has threatened to crackdown on dissidents and activists who criticize the government online, Human Rights Watch said.

Sheikh Rashid bin Abdullah Al-Khalifa, the interior minister, said on March 25, 2018, that the government was already tracking accounts that “departed from national norms, customs and traditions,” and threatened unspecified new legislation and heavy punishments against “violators.”

“No one can mistake the government’s latest assault on the shrinking space for dissent,” said Eric Goldstein, deputy Middle East director at Human Rights Watch. “A vow to punish those who ‘depart from national norms and customs’ is clearly aimed at anyone who criticizes the government’s policies.”

Bahraini authorities have gone after scores of activists, journalists, and photographers since nationwide anti-government protests in 2011. People targeted as dissenters have been harassed, imprisoned, ill-treated, arbitrarily stripped of their nationality, and forced into exile. The authorities have also prosecuted family members of activists in trials tainted by dubious terror-related charges and due-process concerns.

Human Rights Watch has documented how Bahraini authorities already actively police and punish online dissent, blocking numerous websites and publications, and arresting and harassing bloggers, journalists, and activists. The Bahrain Watch, a nongovernmental group, has reported that Bahraini authorities have used malicious links to determine who was behind certain social media accounts that they disapproved of.

One of Bahrain’s preeminent human rights defenders, Nabeel Rajab, is serving seven years in prison for speech crimes after two separate trials, in 2017 and 2018. In the latest trial, a court sentenced Rajab to five years in prison on February 21 for tweets that criticized the Saudi-led military operation in Yemen.

Since June 2011, 13 prominent dissidents have been sentenced to lengthy prison terms, including seven sentenced to life in prison. They include a leading long-term human rights advocate, Abdulhadi al-Khawaja, and Hassan Mushaima, leader of the unrecognized opposition group Al Haq.

In May 2017, a Bahraini court dissolved the leading secular-left National Democratic Action Society (Wa’ad). In June, the government ordered the suspension of Al Wasat, Bahrain’s only remaining independent newspaper.

In March 2017, a court sentenced Duaa Alwadaei, wife of Sayed Ahmed Alwadaei, advocacy director of the Bahrain Institute for Rights and Democracy (BIRD), to two months in prison in absentia for “insulting” a public official. And on October 30, a court sentenced three other relatives of Alwadaei – Sayed Nazar al-Wadaei, Mahmood Marzooq Mansoor, and Hajar Mansoor Hassan – to three years in prison on dubious terrorism related charges despite allegations of coerced confessions and other serious due process violations.

Sayed Nazar Alwadaei faces a total of 13 years in prison after additional convictions in two separate trials on dubious terrorism charges and sentences of three years and seven years.

The Bahrain Press Association (BahrainPA), a UK-based non-profit organization, reported that the Bahrain Cassation Court on March 27 upheld a 10-year prison sentence and stripping of citizenship for Sayed Ahmed Al-Mousawi, a photographer, arrested in 2014 after covering anti-government protests. His father told Human Rights Watch at the time that interrogators questioned his son about his work, which included photographing the 2011 protests.

Lawrence Wilkerson: John Bolton Is One Of Most Dangerous Americans I Have Ever Met – OpEd

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Lawrence Wilkerson, a former United States Army colonel and chief of staff for Secretary of State Colin Powell, made clear, at the beginning of a new The Real News interview, his concern about President Donald Trump appointing John Bolton as the president’s national security advisor. “I would agree that John Bolton is one of the most dangerous Americans — and I use that term loosely in regard to John because of his affiliation so closely with Israel — that I have ever met in all my 40, 50 years of service,” declared Wilkerson to host Sharmini Peries. Indeed, Wilkerson states in the interview that Bolton “is the very last person on the face of this Earth” Trump should have chosen for the position.

Additionally, Wilkerson, who is a professor at the College of William & Mary, says he thinks that, by appointing Bolton to the national security advisor position, Trump is seeking “to send a signal that he is seeking unanimity within his cabinet, and by unanimity I mean people who will ask him what he wants to do and then go do it for him without any dissent, without any questioning, without any additional advice, if you will.”

Supposing Wilkerson were president, he explains in the interview that he would seek to appoint as national security advisor someone like Council of Foreign Relations President Richard Haass with whom Wilkerson would disagree on issues while gaining much from substantive discussions. In contrast, Wilkerson describes Trump as seeking “lock-step people on his team.”

Watch Wilkerson’s complete interview here:

Wilkerson is a Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity Academic Board member.

This article was published by RonPaul Institute.

Fewer Tatarstan Voters Took Part In 2018 Election Than In 2012, And Fewer Voted For Putin – OpEd

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Because participation and support for Vladimir Putin in Tatarstan were relatively high this year and because republic officials have every reason to stress that rather than anything else, few have pointed out that 113,172 fewer Tatarstan residents voted for the Kremlin leader this time than did six years ago.

Putin lost 18,000 supporters in Kazan, 16,000 in Zelenodolsk, and 12,000 in Almetyevsk; and in an indication that this reflected a real change in the president’s support, the falloff was greatest in polling places with electronic voting machines where falsification was more difficult, according to Radio Svoboda’s Tatar-Bashkir Service (idelreal.org/a/29132435.html).

In Kazan precincts with electronic voting machines, the service reports, Putin garnered only 68 percent of all voters, “that is, less than in Moscow and St. Petersburg.” Much of the decline in support for Putin reflected a decline in the number of Tatarstan residents who took part in the voting. That figure was down this year by 120,000 compared to 2012.

Tatarstan was not the only place where the number of Putin voters declined. It was also the case in many other non-Russian republics: In Mordvinia, there were 99,935 fewer Putin voters; in Daghestan, 27,439; in Sakha, 23,767; and even in Chechnya, 17.772 fewer than in the election of 2012 despite a growth in the total number of those qualified to vote in all of them.

“It is not excluded that the real number of votes for president in the republic could have been still fewer than reported by the regional election authorities,” given that they were lower almost everywhere where there were voting machines – exclusively in the cities — than where there were not – in rural areas where observers were fewer and falsification possibilities greater.

Thus, for example, if one considers the precincts in Kazan with voting machines, Putin received only 67.6 percent of the vote while in the city as a whole he got 75.9 percent. (And his real as opposed to expressed support undoubtedly was lower still: one expert says Tatars voted for Putin to not undercut Kazan’s leaders (idelreal.org/a/rafael-khakimov-interview/29130429.html).

The Radio Svoboda report notes that there was one precinct with machine voting where the result was just the opposite. In Leninogorsk, those in that precinct reportedly gave Putin 98.9 percent of their votes, a highly improbable result even in places like Chechnya let alone Tatarstan.

This is the first of what one hopes will be detailed analyses of the 2018 presidential vote in Russia’s republics and regions, part of the return of the Soviet problem of “the missing one percent.” (For a discussion of that trend, see windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2018/03/are-russian-elections-again-going-to-be.html.)

Is There Life Adrift In Clouds Of Venus?

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In the search for extraterrestrial life, scientists have turned over all sorts of rocks.

Mars, for example, has geological features that suggest it once had — and still has — subsurface liquid water, an almost sure prerequisite for life. Scientists have also eyed Saturn’s moons Titan and Enceladus as well as Jupiter’s moons Europa, Ganymede and Callisto as possible havens for life in the oceans under their icy crusts.

Now, however, scientists are dusting off an old idea that promises a new vista in the hunt for life beyond Earth: the clouds of Venus.

In a paper published online in the journal Astrobiology, an international team of researchers led by planetary scientist Sanjay Limaye of the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Space Science and Engineering Center lays out a case for the atmosphere of Venus as a possible niche for extraterrestrial microbial life.

“Venus has had plenty of time to evolve life on its own,” explained Limaye, noting that some models suggest Venus once had a habitable climate with liquid water on its surface for as long as 2 billion years. “That’s much longer than is believed to have occurred on Mars.”

On Earth, terrestrial microorganisms — mostly bacteria — are capable of being swept into the atmosphere, where they have been found alive at altitudes as high as 41 kilometers (25 miles) by scientists using specially equipped balloons, according to study co-author David J. Smith of NASA’s Ames Research Center.

There is also a growing catalog of microbes known to inhabit incredibly harsh environments on our planet, including the hot springs of Yellowstone, deep ocean hydrothermal vents, the toxic sludge of polluted areas, and in acidic lakes worldwide.

“On Earth, we know that life can thrive in very acidic conditions, can feed on carbon dioxide, and produce sulfuric acid,” said Rakesh Mogul, a professor of biological chemistry at California State Polytechnic University, Pomona, and a co-author on the new paper. He notes that the cloudy, highly reflective and acidic atmosphere of Venus is composed mostly of carbon dioxide and water droplets containing sulfuric acid.

The habitability of Venus’ clouds was first raised in 1967 by noted biophysicist Harold Morowitz and famed astronomer Carl Sagan. Decades later, the planetary scientists David Grinspoon, Mark Bullock and their colleagues expanded on the idea.

Supporting the notion that Venus’ atmosphere could be a plausible niche for life, a series of space probes to the planet launched between 1962 and 1978 showed that the temperature and pressure conditions in the lower and middle portions of the Venusian atmosphere — altitudes between 40 and 60 kilometers (25-27 miles) — would not preclude microbial life. The surface conditions on the planet, however, are known to be inhospitable, with temperatures soaring above 450 degrees Celsius (860 degrees Fahrenheit).

Limaye, who conducts his research as a NASA participating scientist in the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s Akatsuki mission to Venus, was eager to revisit the idea of exploring the planet’s atmosphere after a chance meeting at a teachers’ workshop with paper co-author Grzegorz S?owik of Poland’s University of Zielona Góra. Slowik made him aware of bacteria on Earth with light-absorbing properties similar to those of unidentified particles that make up unexplained dark patches observed in the clouds of Venus. Spectroscopic observations, particularly in the ultraviolet, show that the dark patches are composed of concentrated sulfuric acid and other unknown light-absorbing particles.

Those dark patches have been a mystery since they were first observed by ground-based telescopes nearly a century ago, said Limaye. They were studied in more detail by subsequent probes to the planet.

“Venus shows some episodic dark, sulfuric rich patches, with contrasts up to 30-40 percent in the ultraviolet, and muted in longer wavelengths. These patches persist for days, changing their shape and contrasts continuously and appear to be scale dependent,” said Limaye.

The particles that make up the dark patches have almost the same dimensions as some bacteria on Earth, although the instruments that have sampled Venus’ atmosphere to date are incapable of distinguishing between materials of an organic or inorganic nature.

The patches could be something akin to the algae blooms that occur routinely in the lakes and oceans of Earth, according to Limaye and Mogul — only these would need to be sustained in the Venusian atmosphere.

Limaye, who has spent his career studying planetary atmospheres, was further inspired to revisit the idea of microbial life in the clouds of Venus by a visit to Tso Kar, a high-altitude salt lake in northern India where he observed the powdery residue of sulfur-fixing bacteria concentrated on decaying grass at the edge of the lake being wafted into the atmosphere.

Limaye notes, however, that a part of the equation that isn’t known is when Venus’ liquid water evaporated — extensive lava flows in the last billion years likely have either destroyed or covered up the planet’s earlier terrestrial history.

In the hunt for extraterrestrial life, planetary atmospheres other than Earth’s remain largely unexplored.

One possibility for sampling the clouds of Venus, says Limaye, is on the drawing board: VAMP, or Venus Atmospheric Maneuverable Platform, a craft that flies like a plane but floats like a blimp and could stay aloft in the planet’s cloud layer for up to a year gathering data and samples.

Such a platform could include instruments like Raman Lidar, meteorological and chemical sensors, and spectrometers, said Limaye. It could also carry a type of microscope capable of identifying living microorganisms.

“To really know, we need to go there and sample the clouds,” said Mogul. “Venus could be an exciting new chapter in astrobiology exploration.”

The Wisconsin scientist and his colleagues remain hopeful that such a chapter can be opened as there are ongoing discussions about possible NASA participation in Russia’s Roscosmos Venera-D mission, now slated for the late 2020s. Current plans for Venera-D might include an orbiter, a lander and a NASA-contributed surface station and maneuverable aerial platform.

Thailand: Bus Fire Kills At Least 20 Myanmar Migrants

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By Wilawan Watcharasakwet

At least 20 people died when a double-decker bus carrying dozens of migrant workers from Myanmar caught fire Friday in western Thailand, authorities said.

The bus was transporting 47 people in Tak province, along the border with Myanmar, when it caught fire while heading to a factory in an industrial zone near Bangkok, police said.

The incident occurred just eight days after 19 people were killed when a bus traveling in another part of the country veered off the road and smashed into a tree.

Late on Friday, investigators said they were trying to determine what caused the double-decker to erupt in flames.

“The bodies were sent to Taksin Hospital for identification, while officials need to interview all survivors,” police Col. Krissanok Danudom told BenarNews. “Officials need time to gather all evidence before they can specify the cause of this tragic accident.”

Bus driver Bantoon Vitoon, 48, told investigators the fire erupted in the lower deck, which was packed with luggage and passengers’ belongings.

Upon seeing the fire, he said, he immediately stopped the bus and tried to wake his passengers.

Most of the victims were burned beyond recognition, making identification difficult, according to Col. Krissana Pattanacharoen, a spokesman for the Royal Thai Police.

Officials from Myawaddy town in southeastern Myanmar arrived in Tak province late Friday to meet the governor and police officials.

“Thai government agencies will help workers who still want to travel to their destinations in Bangkok, while officials need to do DNA tests on the bodies,” Tak Governor Charoenrit Sa-nguansat told reporters.

Ye Min, a member of the Aid Alliance Committee for Myanmar Workers (ACC), a Bangkok-based group that advocates for the rights of migrant workers, confirmed that the bus was carrying 47 people.

“These workers were coming into Thailand through Mae Sot [district] with a chartered bus,” Ye Min told the Myanmar Service of Radio Free Asia which is affiliated with BenarNews.

Thailand has the second highest road traffic fatality rate in the world after Libya, at 36 per 100,000 with an annual estimate of more than 24,000 or 66 deaths every day, according to the World Health Organization.

Thailand also is a popular destination for migrant workers from across the Greater Mekong Delta region, as well other parts of Asia. After its economy grew at an average annual rate of 7.5 percent in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the country created millions of jobs that helped pull people out of poverty, according to the World Bank.

Thailand has about 2.7 million registered migrant workers, mainly from Myanmar and Cambodia, according to the Thai Labor Ministry.


Cardinal Pell’s Court Hearing Weighs Evidence For Abuse Allegations

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A hearing will that will decide whether Cardinal George Pell will go on trial for alleged abuse came to a conclusion Thursday after Pell’s attorney launched a vigorous defense and sought to cast doubt on the path from the first police investigations through the filing of legal charges.

Pell’s defense lawyer Robert Richter, 72, engaged in cross-examination of the charges against his client, with Victoria Police Crime Command’s head of serious crime, Paul Sheridan, taking the stand in court.

The Victoria Police launched a special operation in 2013 to investigate Pell, “Operation Tethering.” Richter charged that at its launch, “it was an operation looking for a crime because no crime had been reported.”

Sheridan confirmed the effort had been launched in 2013 specifically to gather information on the cardinal. There was a search for complainants and no one came forward until more than a year after the investigation began.

The total number of charges are not public, but most abuse allegedly took place in the 1970s. An additional allegation concerned the cardinal’s time as Melbourne’s archbishop from 1996-2001. Cardinal Pell has said he is innocent. He currently heads the Holy See’s Secretariat for the Economy and is one of the nine cardinals advising Pope Francis.

The hearing in Melbourne Magistrates Court concluded Thursday after hearing testimony from 50 witnesses, including Pell’s accusers, CNN reports. The cardinal was present every day of the hearing.

Richter charged that the police operation investigating Pell was dormant for two years without any accusers, Australia’s ABC News reports. He contended that investigating officers pursued relatively “benign” allegations against the cardinal while putting more serious allegations against a nun and a teacher “on the back burner.”

Sheridan rejected this, saying there could be a better explanation, but he did not know why police did not pursue the other cases.

Pell’s attorney claimed that police made more in-depth inquiries into the cardinal due to “public and political pressure,” suggesting this was linked to the work of the Royal Commission investigating abuse.

Richter also said detectives investigating the cardinal failed to follow proper procedure in interviewing potential witnesses. Police made charges against the cardinal in relation to an alleged crime at St. Patrick’s Cathedral, then interviewed choir members and personnel.

“How could this happen that no relevant inquiries were made with other relevant choir members … before the Cardinal was charged,” said Richter.

A search warrant executed in 2016 on several addresses in Melbourne failed to look for the cardinal’s diaries in the archives of St. Patrick’s Cathedral. This would have described the cardinal’s movements and possibly exonerate him, the defense attorney said.

The attorney also tried to attack the credibility of the prosecution, saying there was no supporting evidence or witnesses behind accusers’ claims of abuse. He claimed that some alleged abuse victims had been treated in psychiatric hospitals or had been allegedly abused by other clergy.

At one point the attorney attacked the credibility of the magistrate, Belinda Wallington. During a discussion about the precise date the cardinal allegedly abused a victim, the magistrate did not accept a date he said was a fact. He then applied for her to be disqualified on the grounds of “biased view of the evidence.”

The magistrate immediately responded “Your application is refused.”

Cardinal Pell had asked for police statements before his October 2016 interview with police. The request was refused, but he did receive a summary of allegations including dates and locations.

The cardinal is excused from an April 17 hearing but will return to court for a final decision at some point in the future. He will spend Holy Week at the Seminary of the Good Shepherd in Homebush, Sydney.

After the charges against Pell were announced, he was granted leave from his post by Pope Francis in order to return to Australia for the trial.

Detectives had secretly planned to arrest Cardinal Pell at a November 2015 Royal Commission hearing in Melbourne. Ten days before the hearing, the cardinal said he could not travel for health reasons. He gave testimony by video from Rome in March 2016.

Richter objected that it would have been illegal to arrest Pell simply to question him.

On March 2, 2018 prosecutors dropped a key abuse charge after the complainant passed away in January. The accuser, Damian Dignan, was joined by another classmate who in 2016 alleged that Pell engaged in inappropriate sexual behavior when they were minors, both students at St. Alipius school in Ballarat, decades before.

Defense attorney Ruth Shann argued that Dignan was not credible, since his claim came nearly 40 years after the alleged abuse and after reading about other cases in newspapers. She said his complaint had a “domino effect” leading to other people contacting police.

Malaysia: Electoral Manipulation Dims Hope For Fair Elections

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By Lindsay Murdoch

Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak appears set to call one of his country’s most bitterly fought elections within days after unleashing what critics claim is the worst case of electoral manipulation in his country’s history.

The move in parliament to redraw the boundaries of scores of wards that critics say will favor the long-ruling Barisan Nasional 13-party coalition prompted fresh protests outside parliament recently.

With the new boundaries ratified Najib, the central figure in a multi-billion dollar corruption investigation into an indebted state fund, is likely to dissolve parliament, triggering the elections before the beginning of the Islamic holy month in mid-May, three months ahead of an August deadline.

Bridget Welsh, an expert on Malaysian politics based in Italy’s John Cabot University, estimates the boundary changes will favor the ruling coalition in one third of the country’s 222 parliamentary seats.

“It is by far the worst case of electoral manipulation in Malaysia’s history and one of the most egregious in the world,” Welsh said.

Najib’s government has also shaken opposition party leaders by proposing legislation to outlaw “fake news” and punish offenders with a 10-year jail sentence, a move described by critics as a further attempt to crackdown on dissent.

The proposed legislation covers all media and extends to foreigners outside Malaysia if Malaysia or its citizens are affected.

Government officials have accused an opposition alliance headed by 92-year-old former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad of using fake news as a key weapon across social media to win votes.

They have warned that news critical of the indebted 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) state fund set-up by Najib in 2009 is fake despite that the United States Justice Department says at least US$4.5 billion was stolen from the fund by associates of the prime minister.

Najib,64, denies any wrongdoing, saying more than US$700 million transferred into his personal bank accounts before elections in 2013 were from an unnamed Saudi prince and that most of the money had been returned.

Despite the scandal, the prime minister has strengthened his power in his United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) through a system of politics and patronage, as he used state agencies to silence his critics and harass independent media outlets.

Analysts say the prime minister cannot afford to wait until after May to call the elections because former popular opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim is scheduled to be released from jail on June 8.

Anwar would inject fresh energy into the opposition’s campaign if he was to be released by the time Malaysia’s 30 million voters go to the polls.

Under Anwar’s leadership opposition parties won the popular vote at the 2013 elections but a gerrymandered system of voting favoring rural Malays prevented the government’s defeat.

Anwar,70, was then jailed on what his supporters described as politically motivated sodomy charges.

He recently formed an alliance with Mahathir, a former bitter political enemy, creating a formidable coalition to challenge Najib at a time of concerns about the growing influence of terror groups such as the so-called Islamic State across south-east Asia.

Mahathir has promised if elected to commence legal proceedings to obtain a royal pardon so that Anwar could immediately play a role in the federal government and subsequently be proposed as a candidate to be prime minister.

It would be a stunning turnaround from years of bitter feuding between the two men that shaped Malaysia’s political landscape for almost two decades.

Mahathir, an authoritarian leader who ruled for 22 years during a “Golden-era” of unprecedented growth, sacked Anwar as his deputy in the 1990s.

He insists he can lead the opposition parties to victory and become the world’s oldest leader if the elections are free and fair but says he expects it to be “terribly dirty.”

He says a swing by just 10 per cent to 20 per cent of UMNO’s rural, ethnic Malay, Muslim voters would be enough for the opposition to achieve a majority, ending the 61-year rule of the party he played a key part in building.

“We have a good chance of winning this time because public opinion is very much for us,” Mahathir said in a recent interview at his office in the administrative capital, Putrajaya.

“The only way Najib can frustrate us is by cheating. If it’s a free and fair election, we will win hands down.”

India: Surge In Police Violence Against Journalists

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After at least four cases of police violence against journalists in India in March alone, Reporters Without Borders (RSF) has called on the authorities to take immediate steps to punish those responsible and to end the climate of police mistrust and hostility towards the media.

On March 24, New Delhi journalists staged a major demonstration about the issue after the latest example of police violence against journalists the day before, when police tried to break up a “pad yatra” (long march) in New Delhi by students and teachers from Jawaharlal Nehru University.

Clearly trying to prevent media coverage of their dispersal of the university protest, the police manhandled and beat journalists, seizing cameras and injuring several reporters including Anushree Fadnavis, a women photojournalist with the Hindustan Times. Given the fact that in the recent past, there had been multiple incidents when scribes had been attacked by the police, many suspect the police were acting on orders from superiors when they resorted to violence.

“We have registered at least four cases of police violence against the media in India in March alone,” said Daniel Bastard, the head of RSF’s Asia-Pacific desk.

“This climate of hostility is intolerable. We urge the authorities to conduct thorough investigations into the violence and to apply the appropriate sanctions. Above all, the ministry of home affairs must issue clear directives to the police in the field, and to those who give them their orders, that the work and the safety of journalists must be respected throughout the country.”

Extreme violence

The latest case was on March 25, when N. C. Shareef, a reporter for the daily newspaper Suprabhatham, was beaten by police and locked in a cell after going to a police station in Areekode, in the southwestern state of Kerala, in search of information about a local protest movement.

On March 10, at least seven journalists were injured when police beat them with batons as they tried to cover a student demonstration at the other end of the country, in the northeastern state of Assam.

The victims included Emmy Lawbei of News18 TV, Catherine Sangi of All India Radio and Tridip Mandal of The Quint, who have described how they were badly beaten although they repeatedly tried to tell the police that they were journalists. This can be seen in videos of the events.

Two days before that, a photojournalist who prefers not to be named was attacked by police while covering an operation against traders opposed to the closure of a market in Lajpat Nagar, a southeastern district of Delhi. After he took a photo of a police commander beating a trader, he was beaten by police officers, who took his camera and told him to delete the photo. He and a colleague were then taken to a police station.

Impunity

The surge in cases of police brutality against the media is all the more worrying because it nearly always goes unpunished. The outcome of a similar case of police violence in February 2017 does not bode well. A year later, the report of the investigation that was supposed to shed light on the events is now gathering dust in a cupboard at New Delhi police headquarter without any sanctions having been imposed by the police chief. The officer who conducted the investigation has meanwhile been moved to a more junior position.

At a time when the Indian media are in mourning for the three journalists who were murdered in the space of 24 hours earlier this week, the Indian authorities must now set an example or else India is liable to fall even further in RSF’s World Press Freedom Index, in which it is currently ranked 136th out of 180 countries.

Leaked EU Overhaul Gives Tech Companies 10 Days To Share ‘E-Evidence’ Data With Police

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By Catherine Stupp

(EurActiv) — Messaging apps and other digital services will be forced to give their users’ data to law enforcement authorities within ten days of receiving requests, or six hours in emergencies, according to a leaked draft of an upcoming EU legal overhaul.

The European Commission will crack down on technology companies that collect so-called electronic evidence that is needed for criminal investigations, regardless of where companies are located or user data is stored, according to proposals obtained by EURACTIV.

The “e-evidence” legislation will force a broad range of digital communication apps to respond quickly to requests for data.

Services that will fall under the new rules include “social networks, such as Twitter and Facebook”, cloud providers, domain name registries and registrars, and even “digital marketplaces that allow consumers and/or traders to conclude peer-to-peer transactions” like user forums on ecommerce platforms.

The reform is scheduled to be announced on 17 April.

The Commission proposal refers to the “exponential increase in use of online services and apps” that are sometimes “misused” to commit crimes.

EU Justice Commissioner Vera Jourova has argued that the legal change is needed because authorities currently face difficult and long processes to receive data stored in other countries for their investigations.

The changes are controversial. Privacy advocates have criticised the Commission’s plan to force companies to quickly give over data.

The new system will circumvent MLATs, or mutual legal assistance treaties, which authorities argue are too slow. Under those agreements, justice officials in partnering countries cooperate, which is different from the e-evidence legislation that allows authorities to approach foreign companies directly.

The Commission will propose two new laws to clamp down on tech companies.

A new regulation will create legal systems for authorities in EU member states to demand companies share data within 10 days, or six hours if there is “imminent threat to life or physical integrity of a person or to a critical infrastructure”.

The overhaul will also include a directive, under which any company providing services that collect electronic evidence in the EU will be forced to appoint a legal representative within the bloc.

Companies’ EU-based legal appointees will need to respond to law enforcement requests for data.

The system will force a big change on companies that currently have no office or do not store user data in the EU: if their services are available in the bloc, those firms will need to comply with police demands.

The proposal specifies that any services that EU-based users can access through app stores will also fall under the rules.

As a result, law enforcement authorities in EU countries will be able to demand user data from any messaging app or digital communication service operating in the bloc.

“Given the borderless nature of the internet, such services can be provided from anywhere and do not necessarily require a physical infrastructure, corporate presence or staff in member states where the services are offered,” the regulation says.

Companies will be able to appeal legal orders and seek reimbursement for data transfers if member states’ national laws cover those costs. They will face sanctions if they refuse to respond to demands.

Law enforcement authorities can only demand data for crimes that carry sentences of up to three years.

Because of that high threshold, the Commission has determined that requests will focus on serious offences like “membership in a criminal organisation, financing of terrorist groups”, training for terrorist acts or supporting a criminal organisation.

National governments have pressured the Commission to propose rules to give law enforcement authorities easier access to data stored in other EU member states. But the new proposals go further by covering companies located outside the EU.

Earlier this year, Jourova confirmed that she was seeking to expand the new system to include a data sharing arrangement with the United States.

But those plans are now uncertain. US authorities will be able to demand data held abroad if it’s needed for investigations, under the new CLOUD Act, which lawmakers approved last week in a fast-tracked vote.

Legal experts argue that the strict new EU data protection law set to go into effect in May will prevent companies from being forced to give American authorities data, unless EU member states agree to bilateral deals with the US.

That means that under the new proposals, US-based companies will be required to give data to European authorities if they operate in the bloc. But European companies do not need to comply with American data demands.

Jourova was disappointed by the new US law, tweeting on Monday (26 March) that the CLOUD Act “narrows the room for the potential compatible solution between EU-US”.

The EU justice chief wrote that she is pushing for “a coordinated approach to avoid different bilateral agreements”.

An aide to Jourova revealed last November that the Commissioner had asked US Attorney General Jeff Sessions months earlier to start negotiations for an EU-US agreement.

Political tensions around police access to data have been soaring on both sides of the Atlantic for several months.

Microsoft is currently at the centre of a high-profile case before the US Supreme Court over the company’s refusal to hand over data to US authorities that is held on a server in Ireland.

The Commission has sent its own submission to the Supreme Court.

According to the EU’s draft e-evidence regulation, the Commission still plans to “discuss with the US and other third countries the possibility of future bilateral or multilateral agreements”.

In the meantime, the EU executive wants existing MLAT agreements with authorities in countries outside the bloc to work more quickly.

The draft Commission regulation earmarks €1 million in funding to train law enforcement authorities in member states on using MLATs, “with a focus on the US as the third country receiving the largest number of requests from the EU”.

Housing Bubble?! How To Predict (And Hedge Against) Housing Downturns

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What if you knew we were in a housing bubble in 2008? Amid ample evidence of a financial and economic crisis, many predicted that real estate prices were coming down.

But selling your own home (or another property) in a downturn isn’t easy. On top of the transaction costs, it can take months and months to close a deal, disrupting life in the meantime. Housing is famously an illiquid asset, after all.

So, what about real estate investment trusts (REITs)? REITs can offer shares that trade on stock exchanges, and thus, like other stocks, they can be shorted. That is to say, investors can borrow shares of selected REITs, sell them at the current market price, and then buy them back at a lower price. If there is a downturn in the housing market, shorting REITs can be a hedge against real estate assets dropping in value — one that doesn’t involve closing costs, agent commissions, inspections, or moving vans.

This is one of the takeaways from a new study by IESE’s Carles Vergara-Alert and the University of Cambridge’s Pedro Saffi. Examining REITs in the United States from 2006-2013, they find that an increase in short-selling activity predicted decreases in housing prices in the following month, especially in areas that had just experienced a property boom. This predictive power can be useful for investors or for regulators to help implement policies to prevent real estate bubbles, among other things.

REIT Between the Lines

Unlike the direct purchases of properties, REITs provide a structure for investing in real estate trends that is highly liquid and has low transaction costs. REITs trading on the stock market react quickly to market conditions, via traders buying and selling… and shorting.

By comparing REIT trading activity with regional house prices in the U.S., the authors find that increased short-selling activity on REITs effectively forecasts downturns in the property market, under certain conditions. In the study, the co-authors divide the U.S. property market into four main regions: Northeast, Midwest, South, and West. In the Northeast and West, the connection between REIT speculation and decreasing house prices was strongest. This was the case because these areas had just experienced housing booms, with big run-ups in pricing. Specifically, the authors find that a one standard deviation increase in the fraction of shares on loan of REITs with properties in housing boom areas (e.g., in the West region in the U.S.) forecasts a 0.52 percent (0.74 standard deviations) decrease in house prices in the following month.

By connecting the demand for shorting financial instruments with declines in real property asset prices, this study suggests new ways for both investors and regulators to understand the housing market. Market participants can effectively use REIT short selling as a tool to hedge against future price decreases, while regulators can improve their forecasts of housing prices and consider the best policies to prevent housing booms and busts.

Methodology, Very Briefly

The authors examine U.S. equity lending data from real estate investment across four U.S. regions across the period 2006-2013. By comparing REIT equity lending activity with the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index each month, for distinct geographical regions, the authors show that REIT short selling activity has been shown to forecast a reduction in house prices the following month, especially in a downturn situation preceded by a housing boom.

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