Post-Olympic Détente?

North Korea’s post-Olympic diplomacy and flurry of diplomacy has temporarily decreased tensions on the Korean peninsula. Reciprocal visits of high ranking officials and representatives have met both in Seoul and Pyongyang. There has been a hiatus in missile and nuclear testing. Kim participated in the historical April 27th, 2018 inter-Korean Summit, he has had two meetings with President Xi, he has committed himself to a tête-a-tête with President Trump June 12th, 2018 by dangling the denuclearization of the North in exchange for security guarantees to lure the US to the negotiating table.

At the same time, bombastic rhetoric from Washington and Pyongyang continues, military parades have been held showcasing military hardware aimed at Washington and anti-ballistic missile (ABM) systems such as THAAD and Aegis Ashore continue to be deployed on the peninsula and in Japan.

Despite the Olympic and post-Olympic optics, we have not seen a fundamental reorientation in the North Korean or US military footprint in the region. Quite the contrary, using the rubric of maximum pressure, the US has unilaterally stepped up its military engagement with the deployment of two aircraft carrier groups. Furthermore, by working with alliance partners in the region, it has also lobbied hard to increase sanctions against North Korea, even targeting Chinese businesses and banks through secondary sanctions. At the institutional level, the US institution continues to prioritize North Korea hawks such as John Bolton and Mike Pompeo over known conservative Korean hands such as Victor Cha whose expertise and experience would be ideal for pursuing a diplomatic solution to the peninsular standoff.

Unchanging Strategic Objectives: Regime Security vs Global Primacy

These contradictions should not mask that at a fundamental level there has been no change in Pyongyang’s determination to achieve an effective and reliable strategic nuclear deterrent to disincline the US from attempting to either bring down the North Korea government through a preemptive or decapitation strike. Simply, regime survival is its immediate and enduring national interest, and this has not changed since the end of the Korean War.

If we examine Kim’s statement at the North Korea-China summit on March 26th, 2018 we can develop more clarity as to the North’s long-term view of the evolution of the peninsula. Specifically, Kim Jong Un said “It is our consistent stance to be committed to denuclearization on the Peninsula, in accordance with the will of the late President Kim Il Sung and the late General Secretary Kim Jong Il”. This phrasing is salient to understanding the North’s position. Both Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il understood denuclearization as denuclearization of the entire peninsula and the removal of the nuclear umbrella that surrounds the Korean Peninsula. In layman terms, the removal of US troops from South Korea and the region, including Japan.

Even at his surprise visit to Dallin, China May 7-8, 2018, Kim reiterated his stance on denuclearization that “The issue of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula can be resolved, if South Korea and the United States respond to our efforts with goodwill, create an atmosphere of peace and stability while taking progressive and synchronous measures for the realization of peace.”

What has changed for the Kim regime is that it feels confident enough it is strategic nuclear deterrent to pivot away from the nuclear pillar to the economic pillar of its byungjin ideology. This indicates that Pyongyang is coming to the negotiation table for denuclearization from a position of strength rather than a position of weakness.

Similarly, the US’s strategic concerns over North Korea have not changed either. A nuclear North Korea threatens the US at three levels. First, it threatens the US directly through the possibility of a nuclear tipped ICBM strike. While unlikely to achieve any tangible benefits for Pyongyang as an offensive weapon, the threat of a retaliatory strike may be enough to dissuade policy makers in Washington to take a more hardline military approach to dealing with North Korea.

The possession of a strategic nuclear deterrent during the “maximum pressure” campaign has contributed to inhibiting the US and given Pyongyang value time to engineer the fracturing of the maximum pressure campaign with its post-Olympic Summitry with President Moon, President Xi and potentially President Trump. In short, Kim has skillfully created a strategic diplomatic deterrent through his maximum engagement tactics.

Second, Pyongyang’s track record of weapons proliferation suggests that the North may proliferate nuclear, chemical or biological weapons to other so-called revisionist states or worse non-state actors such as IS to acquire hard currency. This would have the effect destroying the nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) and potentially dramatically increasing the number of nuclear states and instability in the international system. Iran stands the most to gain from this scenario as it has been using Pyongyang as a proxy for its own missile and nuclear development. In the case of proliferation to a non-state actor (s), the consequences would be severe, and the possibility of usage high consider the plethora of former IS fighters that have reintegrated back into Europe, Northern Africa and potentially North America. Even China’s far western provinces are at risk as transnational terrorist solidarity may extends into separatist groups.

Thirdly, a nuclear North Korea would arguably be protected from a US attack allowing the North to begin to invest resources into building a more robust and dynamic economy realizing its byungjin objective of parallel economic and military development. Even a relatively strong North Korean economy that had nuclear weapons would be in a position to engage in nuclear blackmail with South Korea. Pyongyang could promote reunification or some kind of federation on favorable terms or pressure the South to end their longstanding alliance with the US. In either case, the US’s presence would decrease or be removed all together in either scenario.

This scenario would impact the region and the US differently. Within the region, alliance and strategic partners may make the calculation that the US security umbrella is no longer reliable prompting them to acquire their own preemptive strike capabilities and/ or a nuclear strategic deterrent. This would have implications for Northeast Asia, the South China Sea (SCS) issue and potentially cross strait relations.

While nuclear peace theory argues that nuclear weapons do create stability and security as seen in the Cold War, its logic does not extend beyond a bipolar system in which many regional rivals with different political systems, values and security concerns coexist which aptly describes Northeast and Southeast Asia.

The erosion of a US guaranteed security architecture in the region would decrease the US’s capacity to remain engaged in the region economically, politically and militarily. Any decrease in US capability to project all elements of power within the region would inhibit the US’s ability to promote its rules-based order and the international system that’s it has helped secure for the past 70 years. It would detract from not contribute to the resurrected Quadrilateral and severely attenuate the Indo-Pacific initiative promoted by the Trump Administration and supported by keys allies in the region such as Japan, Australia and India.

Preservation of the US-led system secures its influence in the region, but crucially is understood as balancing China’s rise in the region, arguably the most important foreign policy issue facing the US over this and coming generations as evidence in the 2018 National Defense Strategy in which China was designated as a strategic rival.

Escalating tension: Preserving US Primacy

As the US’ security concerns will not be solved without comprehensive, irreversible, verifiable dismantling of North Korea nuclear weapons and capability to produce those weapons, the US will step up comprehensive pressure on Pyongyang, despite warming in inter-Korean relations. For the US, Pyongyang’s nuclear brinksmanship destabilizes its security at the regional and global level both in the immediate term but also the long term by attenuating its capability to compete with an increasingly capable Chinese strategic rival.

In the Trump Administration’s first 16 months in power it has shown itself to put campaign promises into practice. The rejection of the TPP, withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord, renegotiating NAFTA, pressuring NATO member to contribute more to their security commitment, tariffs on steel imports, stepped up pressure on China in the SCS in the form of FONOPS, the resurrection of the Quadrilateral and the significant stepping up pressure on Pyongyang are salient examples of the Administration’s commitment to a more forceful approach to achieving its national interests. The withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal is only the latest evidence that the Trump Administration is committed to its campaign promises but also to removing nuclear threats to the US and allies. A willingness to even put long term close partners such as South Korea, Canada and Mexico in uncomfortable positions strongly suggests that the US Administration will not back down from its threat to deal with North Korea.

In policy terms, the US approach going forward will necessarily depend on partners in the region, especially Japan, but also interregional partners such as Australia. South Korea’s current leadership is inclined towards diplomacy, understanding that Pyongyang’s strategic nuclear deterrent is aimed at Washington, not Seoul making it an unlikely proponent of stepped up pressure or military solution. Moreover, the intransigent and reckless approach to North Korea by the Trump Administration has moved the Moon Administration to finding endogenous diplomatic solutions to deescalating tensions on the peninsula.

The Inter-Korean Summit and the Blueprint for Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation which proposes three beltways to promote economic development linking South Korea, North Korea and China given to Kim at the Summit indicate the Moon Administration is sincere in its outreach to the North. Notwithstanding, its tight economic relationship with China also means it is difficult to engage in a North Korean denuclearization strategy that may have negative ramifications for its largest trading partner as well evidenced in the post-THAAD instalment in 2016 and its associated economic consequences. The short-term gains from a thaw in peninsular relations may give way to the much more existential challenges for the South in the long run as a nuclearized Korea redirects is attention to reconfiguring peninsular relations based on their nuclear terms.

The Trump Administration initially and still sees China as having the most leverage to put pressure on the Kim regime. Notwithstanding, they have come to an understanding that there are limits to what China would like to do, perhaps without certain guarantees. The same is true for the Russians who have increased trade with the North and continue to allow migrant labor from North Korea into their borders.

The Sino-Russo “Double Freeze” proposal remains on the table; however, it is unlikely to be enticing enough for Washington to let up pressure on Pyongyang. On the contrary, there is consensus in the Beltway that the consolidation of Pyongyang’s strategic nuclear missile deterrent is near completion or completed and that Pyongyang’s post-Olympic diplomacy is a ruse to decrease pressure on the Kim regime allowing it breathing space to consolidate its strategic objective and further dilute the collective action that has been takers towards the North. This view has not deviated, even considering a potential tête-a-tête between Kim and Trump in June 2018.

In light of these emerging views on China and Russia’s reticence to maximize pressure on the Kim regime as well as South Korea’s challenged position vis-à-vis the North, for the US to achieve its strategic objective, the US and Japan must increase their cooperation using their complementary, comparative advantages.

While not exclusive to US-Japan collaboration, this cooperation will include enhanced defensive capabilities and monitoring operations, cooperation to garner international support for stronger sanctions, and stepped rhetoric that stresses that regime change is not the objective of the US, only denuclearization. Simultaneously, the US will continue to unilaterally increase its military presence in the region (Japan cannot participate in this because of constitutional limitations) and simulate various kinds of offensive and defensive capabilities to maximize perceptions within Pyongyang that the US can and is willing to engage in a preemptive strike. The US will also ensure that US-South Korean joint training continues and press for deeper cooperation between South Korea, Japan and the US in intelligence sharing.

Negotiations towards denuclearization are not an impossibility with Kim’s post-Olympic diplomatic reach out to the US. However, any diplomatic solution will require verification of Pyongyang’s denuclearization and demilitarization in exchange for a permanent peace on the peninsula. This is a generational project.

Immediate denuclearization is not realistic considering Pyongyang’s security concerns about the US. Saliently, the US and its allies are not solely concerned about nuclear tipped ICBMs but also short and mid ranged missiles, submarine launch platforms as well as chemical and biological weapons capabilities. Denuclearization must go together with broad demilitarization. This could realistically only occur incrementally through a long-term series of quid-pro-quos in which Pyongyang and Washington bilaterally and simultaneously engage in confidence building through mutual negotiated concessions.

Domestic political cycles within the US will make this long-term strategy unsustainable decreasing Pyongyang’s confidence in the US’s commitment to denuclearization in exchange for regime security. The unilateral withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement will only consolidated this logic in Pyongyang. At the same time, China and Russia are cognizant of the instability within the American political system and they will seize the opportunity to maximize their interests on the peninsula which includes strengthening the Kim regime and ensuring that Pyongyang remains wedded to the interests of Beijing and Moscow.

The implications of the above geopolitical complexities for North Korea and China are clear. The US will continue to pursue a hardline policy against the Pyongyang in line with its interests in preserving security primacy in the region. Any erosion or dilution of that position as the pivotal power in the region would have a cascade of effects weakening the US’s regional and international influence, its national security and hegemonic position in the global order. Crucially, it would weaken the US’s position in the region and its ability to counter growing Chinese influence. With these considerations at stake, countries within the region should make no mistake that the “America First” administration will do what it takes to ensure that North Korea does not retain any nuclear or ICBM capabilities, biological and chemical weapons, and short and mid-range systems that threaten US bases and allies in the region.

About the author:
*Stephen R. Nagy is a senior associate professor at the International Christian University based in Tokyo. Concurrently, he is a distinguished fellow with Canada’s the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada and an appointed China expert with Canada’s China Research Partnership.

Who is responsible for the media’s current state of affairs?

Is there any greater freedom of expression today, or is it actually a greater repression, or is it two sides of the same coin?

The so-called “libertarian society1” has come to the place of the desired “healthy society”, and thus we appear to have moral anarchy.

Above all, the interests of big capital and politics, technological unpreparedness, and non-compliance with ethical and professional standards prevail and overcome all.

There is also the problem of over-production of too many young people in the media field who possess poor skills, the result of the lack of a good education and monitoring of contemporary trends in journalism, as well as too many media outlets for such a small space such as Bosnia and Herzegovina (everything written about this country relates as well to Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, Macedonia and Kosovo*).

It is not questionable that there is freedom of speech, but its application is mostly abusive or inadequate. The abuse of the freedom of speech leads to everyone being able to say anything about anyone and anything without suffer almost any consequences or sanctions.

Media owners, journalists and editors are not difficult to pay for slander punishment and similarly when they have met the goal — to smear someone, spin real problems, etc. —
BiH’s libertarian society (if we can call it that) should be seen in the context of a non-free, captive and imprisoned society, a society that is chained to poverty, existential fear, subject to an epidemic of ignorance coupled with the absence of elemental courage and curiosity.

Freedom Of Speech And Poverty

Freedom of journalistic speech and expression in such a society is primarily limited by the employers’ interests and the fact that journalism, as it is currently being sought in the labor market, appears to argue that anybody can be a journalist. This is happening, while the authors of the commentaries and important columns within the newspapers with highest circulation3, as the most respected form of writing in journalism, are often under  the legal age, and lack experience, both professional and in real life. This is unacceptable from the perspective of professional ethical standards, if such a thing does indeed exist.

Often, in the newsrooms, the sentence is heard: “Whoever does not like it, then he/she can go, as I can find a new person for 100 euros per month on the street.” And what is even worse, that’s the truth. People under the pressure of poverty and unemployment are willing to work, not only for 100 euros, but for free, just to get involved in the profession, and there is no positive selection of staff as more microphone holders are required, than quality and engaging journalists.

With their willingness to look under each stone, such journalists often even annoy employers as boring and even dangerous people who can make problems with advertisers, patrons, political and business friends. Here’s a banal example of what I am writing about: when is the last time that you have seen an article or commentary that examines the work of a Telecom operator?

The media are almost totally subordinated to political elites and national interests, which is why they have lost their freedom. Let’s take examples in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (entity of BiH) where we can immediately talk about who is currently in power (the left and / or right option within one nation) by the chosen topics of public service TV – while in the Republika Srpska (entity in BiH) we have two equally powerful TV companies one public TV service – RTRS, and the other private TV channel – BN TV belonging to different political options. Has there ever happened a case that an option that is under the “control” of any one of the media mentioned above is this media “asking” that “option” for this or that? Unfortunately, not. And that is why professional ethical standards of journalism are in question. Where everyone thinks the same, no one thinks the God knows what, said the great Duško Radovic (former Yugoslav writer and journalist, Belgrade 1922-1984) in the eighties of the last century.

It is believed that the above-mentioned penury has contributed to the reduction of media freedom. As an example, we can state that in the years after the war (1992-1995) in Bosnia and Herzegovina international donors donated millions of euros, and because of that it was easier for journalists to write and speak, as they were not dependent on anyone in the country4.

The beginning of the 21st Century brought a rapid reduction in these donations. In fact, today it is possible to speak about very small amounts in relation to those immediately after the war 5. Because of this, the media have been subjected, when seeking funding sources, to look to the other side. Given that BiH is more and more dependent on political interests, as a result of the public and private sector of the economy largely financing the media, so the media have become politically dependent. The very fact that the strongest tycoons are, depending on the economic and territorial area they cover, in direct connection with political actors, has led to the interaction of the organized alignment of indirect pressures on the media that leads to blackout6 or underestimation7, since the circulation of “inappropriate media to a reasonable measure” cannot harm “wider8” interests.

Money Makes Journalists Go Around

Since the money is mostly in the hands of parties and companies associated with them, it is very difficult for the media to survive if they do not have someone behind them. Much of the media, especially in the Republika Srpska (BiH entity), are funded from the state budget. Can they criticize the government that finances them? A lot of issues are addressed by professional ethical standards in these areas, which are under the umbrella of precisely designating subjects of political pluralism in the context of the development of a healthy society.

A recently released World Press Freedom Index claims that BiH is in the 68th place9, and after which many media said that media freedom in BiH has stagnated. Namely, in 2006 BiH was ranked 19th, and in 2010 at 47th, and the position of 2017 is, in BiH so far, the lowest ranking.

I am convinced that instead of “stagnation”, it would have been better to say that the situation in the media has changed and that the pressures have now been embedded into the system, and by that they are less visible, recognizable and far worse, in the long run.
While the situation is no better in other countries in the region, in BiH this influence is more pronounced because of the economic and social situation.

Specifically, try to be a Journalist journalist of daily “Dnevni avaz” and publish something against Fahrudin Radončić10 or an journalist of daily “Nezavisne novine” and criticize Milorad Dodik11, or even a journalist of the daily “Oslobođenje” and write something against the owner of Oslobođenje, Muje Selimović12. It’s simply impossible. First of all because of self-censorship, because journalists are aware that something like this would not past the editor’s desk and as such they don’t even try, but even if they did try, such a text would not be published — and we aren’t even to speaking about the consequences for the journalist.

And there are still a number of such examples. On the one hand this can be understood in the context of the fear of journalists and that more and more of them are left out of jobs. But for the profession — professional journalism — it’s a disaster! Those who are willing to sell their human and professional dignity to (even a small one) salary, a free ride with or smile of a politician should not be doing this job. By doing  such, they are doing a disservice not only to him/her, but also to the ethics of journalism.

There are legal frameworks in BiH that provide an undisturbed working atmosphere for journalists, and that is largely a good basis for respect for media freedom, but these do not apply in practice.

However, in addition to legal regulations, physical attacks on journalists’ teams, court bans, police clashes in the newsroom, denial of accreditation for certain journalists and verbal attacks, are just a part of what journalists in BiH are suffering. Since 2006, 65 physical assaults on journalists and direct threats to death have been reported, and only 15% of criminal offenses against journalists have been faced with final judgments.

It is true that Bosnia and Herzegovina has a pretty good legislation that would be envied by journalists who are fighting against the hardcore restrictions and free information in many countries around the world. It is far away, however, though, to say that in BiH we are satisfied. The growing political pressures on the media, the information (half-information and fake news) that journalists receive, pressures from media owners towards journalists, have influenced that all of these laws are almost not being applied.

That said, there is no adequate control of the application of these laws. The best way to properly control these laws would be the establishment of an independent parliamentary commission13 that would monitor the implementation of these laws every six months.

In addition to violent behavior towards the media, journalists are denied access to information, although we have, as I said earlier, the Laws on Freedom of Access to Information at all levels of Dayton (back in 1995) made in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Many of the businesses of the governing structures are hidden from the eyes of the public and completely unavailable to journalists, which shows a high degree of corruption in Bosnia and Herzegovina14.

The Laws And How To Avoid It?

The Law on Freedom of Access to Information stipulates that the deadline for the provision of information is 15 days, and misdemeanor sanctions are prescribed if the institution or other legal entity does not provide the information within that deadline, But there have been no effects of that provision so far — no one has been sanctioned due to denial of information to journalists up to date.

Journalists are today the target of many forces, from political to economic power potentates, but the truth is that media owners are now employing a staff who meets “house rules” and if he / she is not necessarily a good journalist.

Responsible journalism and media freedom can be protected. However, the job and work of journalists in BiH is heavily burdened by low wages and pressures from commercial advertisers, and because of these poor working conditions, journalists go down to lethargy and live in fear of their own existence.

The freedom of media journalists must defend with responsible journalism with high professional ethical standards. But, with a unanimous appearance. None of the journalists can do anything alone, but together they can do a lot. Journalists are often faced with various types of pressures and the duty of all journalists is to be with their colleagues and support them when needed. Journalism can be rescued by raising professional standards, and education outside of standard institutions is essential; scholarship programs such as BIRN15 and Reuters16, Media Center workshops17, and independent learning, as well as studying at universities that have no influence on this or that policy (whether it is social, economic, and / or political).

Responsible journalism starts with each of the individual journalists because the first – journalist is responsible to himself/herself, to the people around him, and then to all who may read what he/she writes and then to the profession itself.

There is lacking, first and foremost, of collegiality in the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina, no matter about which kind of media we are talking about. For example, politicians have a meeting and allow journalists to wait for 5-6 hours in the winter cold, refuse to appear at scheduled time. Why do not all journalists simply agree to leave the site and not report on the meeting? Yes, someone will probably stay and break the deal, but believe me the politicians will do the same when such things happen on several occasions. There needs to be in the media, not a collegial grouping of just one or two, but an understanding that all must be involved18.

For many, it is funny when, for example, Milorad Dodik19 jokes or offends one of their colleagues or they are silent about it. Journalists are still squatting for hours in all possible weather conditions waiting for the unpardonable end of a meeting, lunch or some other political event. It’s as if we are cleaning the garbage in a stranger yards, and yet we do not see the trash in our own area of the media. How many journalists are still working in the black economy — working full-time, often more than ten hours a day, earns just a small amount of money. Media bosses have been employing journalists for many years on fake contracts, giving them a miserable salary. At least a third of them have not had internships and they are not paid for health and other benefits.

Of course, auto-censorship exists in the worst possible form. A large number of journalists are waiting for a job, so this means that there are the same number of people who think twice before editing something within the line of words. Journalists fail to convey to their colleagues how editors put pressure on them because they (editors) have been called from the “central20”. Surreal reality is at work, and the freedom of journalistic speech has also been lost.

Five Criteria: Becoming And Being Ethical

We can conclude that there are numerous reasons for disturbing the dignity of the journalist profession, and for some they are solely responsible – the journalists — and for others there is a government that is accustomed to keeping the media “curbed”.

Unfortunately, some practices that violate media rights have become permanent and are not likely to change until there is fundamental change in society as a whole (who mentioned MEDIA LITERACY?).

However, even journalists are just humans. They too are people who, like other citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina, suffer from extreme poverty and existential fear. Because of this they often work under rules and conditions that are counter to a positive media and are silent about what bothers them.

To avoid all of the above, and to create the prerequisites for the creation of professional ethical standards aimed at the creation of a healthy society, it is necessary to respect and implement five basic criteria that are the core part of every ethical system, including those belonging to professional journalists:

1. First of all, the ethical system must have common values ​​relating to honesty, democracy, truth, objectivity, honesty and privacy. This is because before we can come to an ethical judgment21, society must reach an agreement about standards of moral behavior22.

2. The second criterion is that these standards must be established and based on reason and experience and they should harmonize the rights and interests of people23 with their obligations to other people24.

3. Third, the ethical system must seek for justice. There must not be double standards of behavior unless there are compelling and morally viable grounds for discrimination25.

4. The ethical system should be, as the fourth criterion, based on the freedom of choice and an ethics system that includes responsibility,  to encourage honest behavior. If that is not done, then we get moral anarchy.

5. Finally, my firm stance is that I always use my own sentence in work and behavior: “However many rights I win, I must win the same amount of the responsibility.”

And of course, how can we still better shape and not allow the continuation of the maintenance of moral anarchy? Should we focus on the Law or Ethics? The question of quality is unavoidable.

What is important is that if a particular profession wants to call itself professional, it has to do its job on an ethical basis with what is most important — those who accomplish it must be responsible for their work and acts.

Notes:
1. Example of the menitoned for the area of South_East Europe essay from Eurasia Review, USA, author Sabahudin Hadžialić, 18.10.2015: http://www.eurasiareview.com/18102015-south-east-europe-on-edge-of-civilization-what-would-happen-if-it-happened-essay/
2. Very often very low fines.
3. Example of anti-journalism – Newspaper „Dnevni Avaz“, Sarajevo, BiH: http://www.media.ba/bs/mediametar/novina-protiv-novinara
4. More details: http://www.media.ba/bs/mediametar/istorija-upotrebe-medija-u-izgradnji-mira
5. More details – info from 2014 – which media are financed by Americans: http://www.capital.ba/otkrivamo-koje-medije-i-nvo-u-bih-finansiraju-amerikanci/
6. Journal Slobodna Bosna – after 25 years stopped publishing in print and on 1.1.2016 and became a WWW portal: http://www.slobodna-bosna.ba/
7. Journal DANI: https://www.bhdani.ba/ – downsized in 2016 on really negligible circulation in coparison with 7,4 % out of 5.000 questioned (circulation approx. 20.000) from before 18 years (2000) https://www.bhdani.ba/portal/arhiva-67-281/166/t16608.htm
8. Read: party interests, narrow private interests of the individuals and groups – centers of power
9. Info: https://rsf.org/en/ranking
10. Tajcoon
11. Politician
12. Tajcoon
13. Made of non-party members, outsiders, intellectuals with huge moral dignity
14. Radio Slobodna Evropa, 17.1.2015 – „Corruption became a phylosophy of life“: http://www.slobodnaevropa.org/a/korupcija-u-bih-stela-postala-filozofija-zivota/27077683.html
15. http://birn.eu.com/
16. https://www.reuters.com/
17. http://media.ba/en
18. Meyer, Thomas – Media democracy: How the media Colonize Politics, 2002, Publisher WILEY, USA: http://www.polity.co.uk/book.asp?ref=9780745628448
19. Politican in Republika Srpska (entity of BiH)
20. Party in power
21. stand
22. How to do that within deeply polarized society such as Bosnia and Herzegovina? Maybe through consensual shape of democracy – yes, but not by the side which will only speak, but also listen with the goal of finding compromises which will not 100 % satisfied individual (or group) interests, but will 100 % satisfy the interest of the society as the whole.
23. Read: nation(s) in BIH: Bosniak (Muslims), Serbs, Croats and others as well.
24. Ibid.
25. Example: If the judge, in the interest of process protection asks from the journalist to reveal the source of the news which can lead to the solving of the process and help for the person who is within the process and very often happens that it comes to that – because, by doing that it does not jeopardize dignity of the process, but it helps motions towards the goal – satisfying of the justice.

This is the holy month when Muslims, about one fifth of the world’s population, undergo a rigorous fast (not even a drop of water or spittle passes their throats). Muslims around the world take a journey within – to discover their inner strengths and strive zealously to subjugate their evil instincts. It is abstinence in its literal, metaphorical and allegorical sense.

From dawn to dusk each day this month, Muslims do not eat, drink, smoke, use perfume or apply leeches and abstain from conjugal relations. It is the month of Ramadan, the ninth and holiest month of the Muslim lunar year, a month of sacrifice and humility punctuated by joyous family gatherings, during which conscientious observance of every divine commandment marks a high water mark in the lives of every Muslim.

The start of the month is reckoned in the traditional way by groups of folks going out in the evening to look for the new moon by the naked eye. If it is a cloudy day the possibility is dim. But excitement builds up as the ragged clouds skate apart and an incandescent sun pulses slowly between them. A sliver of radiance, like a spray of gold, spread from the clouds. At sundown, as glow worms wink good-bye against an inky blue sky, all eyes squint skywards in search of the crescent moon heralding the beginning of Ramadan.

A fine haze stands above the vast plain, filtering through its screen the last roseate hue of the sinking sun. The last pale shades of light still illuminate the sky as people straddle the mottled trail of dents and potholes enchanted by the ruddy glow in the horizon. The men and boys accompanied by cherubic girls spread everywhere, squatting on their haunches, their faces roughened by the sun and the wind, bangles clanking on the arms of the bustling girls. The sun has gone down, the evening mellowed by the soft amber of the setting sun. The russet sky turns grey as shades of twilight spread across the plain. The smog has cleared enough for a bone –white sliver of moon to flicker like a pared fingernail briefly through a film of dust and cloud in the sky. The first glint of the new moon has a special significance and people offer supplications with cupped palms.

As news of the sighting of the moon spreads there is a flush of excitement. The crowd points excitedly. “There it is. It is at hand!” .There is a flush of excitement as others too see it. They offer supplication with outstretched palms. A few minutes later, before the local halal committee (a group of clerics who take a final decision on the sighting of moon) of the city, they testify to what they have seen. “The new moon is at hand,” they say. “We have seen it.” The leaders accept the testimony. The lights glow out of the minarets and domes. .It is a sign that Ramadan has begun. The mantle of the night spreads like a canopy as a million stars of variable brilliance chip from the new moon and spangle the dark sky In Middle East countries, Ramadan is heralded by the boom of cannons.

The rules of Ramadan are fairly straightforward: for one month, all practicing, able-bodied Muslims over the age of 12 are forbidden to eat or drink from sunup to sundown. Muslims believe that during this month the gates of hell close — meaning the devil is unable to tempt them during a month of discipline, charity and self-control. The objective of the fast, which also prohibits participating in “sensual pleasures” such as smoking, sex and even listening to music during daylight hours, is to diminish believers’ dependence on material goods, purify their hearts and establish solidarity with the poor to encourage charitable works during the year. It’s as much a period of self-growth as of self-denial: Muhammad reportedly said, “He who does not abandon falsehood in word and action in accordance with fasting, God has no need that he should abandon his food and drink.”

The origin of the word Ramadan comes from the classical Arabic root, ramida, ar-ramad or ramdaa, meaning scorching heat or dryness – believed to be either in reference to the heat of thirst and hunger or because fasting burns away one’s past sins. The first Ramadan is thought to have occurred during the middle of summer. In other words, Ramadan is a month meant to purify the body of toxins and the soul of the lavish desires of life, such as greed, hatred and malice. This period is called Ramazan in Iran and Turkey and Ramadan in the Indian subcontinent. The month of Ramadan is further divided into three parts, consisting of ten days each. Each ten day period is referred to as ashra, which is the Arabic word for ten. These three parts are the Rahmah (God’s mercy), Maghfirah (God’s forgiveness), and Najah (salvation). The first 10 days of the month of Ramadan are dedicated to mercy from Allah. The next 10 days focus on forgiveness from Allah and the last 10 on freedom from Hell Fire.

Ramadan commemorates the time when Quran was first revealed to Prophet Mohammad about 1,400 years ago through the angel Gabriel. This revelation was the final link in the chain of divine communication, which includes the Commandments of Moses, the Psalms of David, the Scrolls of Abraham and the Gospel of Jesus.

Ramadan lasts for 29 or 30 days, starting with the sighting of the new moon. The actual night on which the Qur’an was revealed is called Laylat ul Qadr (Night of Power). It is a very auspicious night and to stand in prayer on this one night is said to be better than a thousand months of worship. . It is in the last ten days of Ramadan that the “Night of Glory” (or “Power”) falls when God is believed to be releasing the greatest number of souls from Hell. Since it has never been revealed which particular night is the Night of Glory, Moslems must be strict in their religious observances on all ten nights. Because the faithful do their work by day, eat, drink and pray by night, they have little time for sleep and as Ramadan progresses become increasingly fretful.The Qur’an provides a vivid account of this night.

“We have indeed revealed this (message) in the Night of Power: And what will explain to you what the Night of Power is? The Night of Power is better than a thousand months. Therein come down the Angels and the Spirit (Gabriel) by Allah’s permission, on every errand: Peace! This until the rise of Morn!” (Surah 97) he night between the 26th and 27th days of Ramadan, is possibly the night of Laylat Al Qadr during which, according to the Quran, God determines the course of the world for the following year. Muslims pay attention to the odd numbered days like the 21st, 23rd, 25th, 27th and 29th because it is most likely to be on one of them. The Prophet advised believers to spent those last ten days at the mosque in vigil (i’tikaf) retreating to the hermitage of the God’s house and pray throughout the night, for partaking of the blessings of the holy night.

Fasting or sawm is one of the vital pillars of Islam. Sawm is from the root sama which means ‘to abstain’ – Although ṣawm is most commonly understood as the obligation to fast during Ramadan, it is more broadly interpreted as the obligation to refrain between dawn and dusk from food, drink, sexual activity, and all forms of immoral behaviour, including impure or unkind thoughts. Thus, false words or bad deeds or intentions are as destructive of a fast as is eating or drinking. As Lent may be prescribed for Christians and Yom Kippur for those of the Jewish faith, Ramadan is an eagerly awaited interval for Muslims to utilise the absence of food, drink and other luxuries, as an opportunity to concentrate on prayer, meditation and worship. This in turn encourages greater reflection on life itself and appreciation for the resources we sometimes take for granted

The Quran further states: “You who believe? Fasting is prescribed for you, even as it was prescribed for those before you, so perchance you may attain God-consciousness.” (2:183). The rules of Ramadan are fairly straightforward: for one month, all practicing, able-bodied Muslims over the age of 12 are forbidden to eat or drink from sunup to sundown, from that time in the morning when a white thread can be distinguished from a black one, until the hour of the evening when neither can be seen.

The Prophet Mohammed said “God would make fast an ease and not a difficulty,” and exempted the old, the sick, the pregnant, nursing mothers, and wayfarers. Children are not required to fast until they reach the Age of Responsibility (twelve years for girls; fifteen years for boys). Children from the ages of six to eight may fast for half the day, gradually increasing the duration until old enough to fully observe the fast.

The Quran states:”But if any of you is ill, or on a journey, the prescribed number (of Ramadan days) should be made up from days later. For those who cannot do this except with hardship is a ransom: the feeding of one that is indigent…. Allah intends every ease for you; He does not want to put you to difficulties….” – (Q 2:184-185)

Although the fast is obligatory for all sane adult Muslims in good health, a number of exemptions are allowed. These are seen as proof of Allah’s wish not to place too onerous a burden on His people. Unintentional breaking of the fast is not punished, and Muslims are enjoined to break their fast if there is a threat to health. Other types of infractions require restitution. This is of two kinds: Qada, which involves making up missed days, and Kaffarah, which additionally exacts a penalty from the transgressor.

The most significant aspect of the fast is the development of Allah-consciousness (taqva). Prophet Muhammad emphasized: “He who does not abandon falsehood in word and action in accordance with fasting, God has no need that he should abandon his food and drink.”

The azan marks the beginning of the fast as the sonorous cadence of the muezzin resonates toward Allah. A typical day starts, with the predawn meal called the sahur, (sehri in the Indian subcontinent) usually rich in protein and carbohydrates to get through the long, foodless day. The rest of the day is spent reciting prayers, abstaining from bad deeds and reading the Quran. Ramadan, a fast-feast, though a lesser religious event, has a seesaw or frenzied edge, people sitting with a tumbler of orange juice, waiting for the cannon to boom over Cairo marking sunset, when they can quench their thirst. The fasting begins at dawn when one can distinguish a black from a white thread; and it’s a month for parties, making the night day. The meals served then are the best of the year, a fast being a marvellous condiment.

The fast lasts until sundown — or until it’s too dark to “distinguish a white thread from a black thread,” according to the Quran — and is broken with a small meal called an iftar which is followed by the maghrib prayer before the fasters join their families and tuck into a celebratory meal that normally comprises: dates, apricots and sweetened milk

• Kheema samosa –a small crispy and flaky Muslim pastry consisting of minced lamb meat mashed with onion and cumin and packed inside a chipped white bowl of batter of wheat flour that is conjured into a small pyramidal envelope and is deep fried.
• Kebab-meat dish, the most popular form of which is seasoned minced meat grilled on a skewer.
• Gulgula- a dessert made out of wheat fluor shaped like a small pancake.
• Shahi Tukda- fried bread poached in sweetened milk that is leavened with dry fruits.
• The celebratory meal comprises
• Haleem –a concoction of cracked wheat, lentils, spices and meat, which is cooked over a slow fire. It is sprinkled with fried onions on top and flavoured with a twist of lemon juice.
• Biryani -A world-renowned dish of Indian subcontinent .Long-grained aromatic rice (like Basmati) flavoured with exotic spices like saffron, cardamom ,cinnamon and bay leaves is layered with lamb or chicken cooked in a thick gravy. The vessel is then covered, its lid sealed on with dough and biryani is cooked on a low flame.

The cooking of Indian subcontinent is much more than a series of throat-cauterizing curries. This major cuisine has drawn from the culinary wisdom of a huge geographic area over a period of centuries. Making Ramadan’s exquisite dishes was often thought of as a culinary challenge, cloaked in an aura of mysterious eastern promise. Now most supermarkets stock the main ingredients and once you’ve grasped the main cooking techniques, you’ll soon be making signature dishes from scratch. Spices are to East what basic stocks, sauces and dressings are to the West. Whether familiar or exotic, they add warmth, pungency, heat, and subtlety to dishes.

More traditional Muslims do not just follow the letter of the law when it comes to Ramadan, but the spirit of the law as well. When the sun goes down, they do not gorge themselves, but instead break the fast modestly, starting off with just a few dates or a simple glass of juice. They only eat more after they have said the sunset prayers, and then usually carry on afterwards by attending the evening prayers.

In the hush before sunset, there is the sound of cannon shot, followed by the cry of “Allahu Akbar!” from a nearby mosque, to break their day-long fast .The Quran says: “O Believers, prescribed for you is the Fast, even as it was prescribed for those that were before you… The month of Ramadan, wherein the Koran was sent down to be guidance to the people, and as clear signs of the guidance and salvation. So let those of you, who are present at the month, fast it; and if any of you be sick, or if he be on a journey, then a number of other days. And eat and drink, until the white thread shows clearly to you from the black thread at dawn; then complete the Fast until the night(Q2: 183-187)

Worship in all its forms abounds during Ramadan. A special emphasis is placed on dhikr (invocation, deep meditation and reflection over the mysteries of the universe). Before retirement each night, special congregational prayers called salat al-tarawih, consisting usually of twenty prostrations with a short interval or pause (tarawih) after every four, are offered. Uttered at night and only during Ramadan, tarawih is a recitation of the complete Quran over the course of 30 days. All recite the ‘Isha, the fifth and the day’s last mandatory night prayer, and then settle into the tarawih.

Unlike their peers in the Middle East who benefit from working hours adapted for Ramadan, Muslims in rest of the world fit Ramadan around the demands of a regular working day. Sportsmen must grind their way on an empty stomach and endure the brutal training sessions without a sip of water. Ramadan is a way of resetting one’s moral clock, of starting anew with a clean slate, a virgin heart. Ramadan is also an excellent time for performing the umrah (a visit — as opposed to a hajj or pilgrimage — to the holy Kaʿbah, which can be performed at any time during the year); the Prophet encouraged us to undertake the umrah in Ramadan by saying, “An umrah in Ramadan is like a hajj with me.”

Another unique feature of Ramadan are the night warriors, musahhir, a sort of town criers who traverse the streets rapping on doors with a stick, tapping a drum , strumming the lute, reciting Qur’anic verses or chanting hymns to rouse the sleepy, and crying out to them to awake for the solemn occasion, “Awake, sleepers! It is time for sahur and prayers!” For particularly heavy sleepers the musahhir often waits beneath the window until they acknowledge his call, usually with a sleepy, “Thank you, brother. May God compensate you with His grace and benevolence?” There are several traditional musahhirs whose voices have been ringing in people’s minds for several years ,yet they have not been able to see their faces. These are the invisible night warriors whose moving tunes have sharpened people’s consciousness about the sanctity of fasts. Then there is roza kushai -a ceremony that marks the first fast of a child. The boy or girl is decked in bridal costumes and paraded through the neighbourhood, reminiscent of a birthday ceremony.

After sunset, streets and squares all over the Muslim world are thronged with people anchored by a pulsing market as they flood out to the streets to shop, eat snacks and promenade. The city takes on a new look eerily illuminated by lamps and moonlight as the crowds dredge away. The alleys remind you of a carnival — an overwhelming frenzy of lights and aromas. Stores line a bustling charade as merchants squat behind piles of pistachios, almonds and rosewater-doused candies. Fluorescent lights glow like light sabers, directing lost souls to God. On grimy mats, fruits and vegetables are spread out in huge mounds. Bargains are made by means of hoarse shrieks swapped between buyers and sellers. Rivulets of fasters thread through the bazaars as tempting aromas emanating from hotels keep titillating the taste buds. Crowds mingle in gay, fantastic patchwork quilts of colour and light. The lighted minarets stand silhouetted against the sky. Green flags strung from posts and trees like pennants on a sailing ship flutter their appeals heavenward. Shrouded women wrapped in veils shuffle past and innocent charming girls, whose faces are suffused with radiant exuberance, inject the space with a thick, engrossing energy. Food lanes are abuzz with gastronomic activities inviting you to feast on a tempting palate that showcases savouries emerging out of a great sugary avalanche.

There is a vast diversity of culinary delights and aromatic dishes flavored with saffron. The eateries liven up the evenings as festivities turn nocturnal. On hills and mounds and by the gaunt trees of the countryside, bonfires gleam. Walking through a maze of narrow alleyways inside one is struck by the festive atmosphere. Strands of decorative lights twinkle over spice shops and jewelry stores. Rainbows of colorful scarves and beaded necklaces lined walkways, while above, everywhere, glass and tin lanterns gently dot the darkness with rays of red, yellow, green and blue.

Seeing the Ramadan lanterns swaying gently from shop entrances, balconies and trees, in all shapes and sizes, in materials from copper and brass to plastic and tin, is mesmerizing. Far from being subdued from the day long rigors of fast the town is positively glowing.

Ramadan is also a month of benevolence. Islam has a two-pronged requirement on charity. The first, the zakat, requires Muslims to give 2.5 per cent of their savings each year to the poor. The second, fitra is voluntary and depends on a person’s financial ability. Zakat is not just the payment of a tax as it is generally understood, but is rather an act of worship. Its importance is underscored by the fact that the Qur’an treats it at par with salat (prayer). The Qur’an goes to the extent of saying that one cannot attain righteousness unless one spends out of one’s wealth for the love of God: “By no means shall you attain righteousness, unless you give of that which you love.”(3:92).

There is an interesting difference in the two traditions. In zakat, the donation is made to a person or family to improve their economic well being. In fitra alms are given to enable the family to celebrate Eid. The fitra must be a minimum of two kilos and a half of wheat, rice, barley, flour or any other grain, dates, fruits etc. Every member of a Muslim household is under religious obligation to give fitra before proceeding to the ground for Eid Prayer so that the poor can also participate in the celebration. The gesture is intended to level any social distinction in the celebration of Eid. The conscious setting aside of an amount of money – that is a small percentage of one’s income or wealth – in order to be able to give it away to those deserving charity is an essential feature of this holy month.

Allah ordains: ” O you who have believed, do not invalidate your charities with reminders or injury as does one who spends his wealth [only] to be seen by the people and does not believe in Allah and the Last Day. ” (Q:2:264). There are eight categories of the beneficiaries of zakat which Allah specifies in the holy Qur’an: ” Zakah expenditures are only for the poor and for the needy and for those employed to collect [zakah] and for bringing hearts together [for Islam] and for freeing captives [or slaves] and for those in debt and for the cause of Allah and for the [stranded] traveler – an obligation [imposed] by Allah. And Allah is Knowing and Wise.” (Q9: 60). It is verily mentioned in the holy Qur’an that Allah says: ” Take, [O, Muhammad], from their wealth a charity by which you  purify them and cause them increase, and invoke [ Allah ‘s blessings] upon them. Indeed, your invocations are reassurance for them. And Allah is Hearing and Knowing” (Q9: 103).

The Islamic calendar is a lunar calendar. A month is considered to have begun from the time when the initial crescent of a new moon is seen. However, a lunar calendar is shorter than the regular solar calendar year of 365 days. The lunar calendar falls short by around eleven or twelve days each year. Due to this discrepancy between the two calendars, the month of Ramadan is advanced by around eleven days each year. This means that the average Muslim will have to fast in both the winter and summer months during the course of his lifetime. When Ramadan, on its 32-year migration through the solar calendar, happens to fall in different seasons.

This ensures that the hardships faced while fasting are experienced equally by Muslims living in the northern and southern hemispheres. Summer Ramadans are the toughest. In northern climes, the yawning chasm that separates dawn from dusk makes the long, meandering days feel like an epic marathon. Further south, the days may be shorter and the hunger less palpable, but the intense heat makes the faster feel lost in a desert of thirst. Muslims living in northern countries face fasting through as many as 19 hours of daylight. Clerics have suggested that worshippers in these climes follow the daylight hours of the nearest Muslim-majority nation.

In Islam, man’s relation to the earth is seen as that of a custodian. “Now, behold! Your Lord said to the angels: I am placing upon the earth a human successor to steward it” (Al Baqarah 2:30). It is required that man should work towards the conservation of earth and ensure sustainability of natural resources for future generations. He must not be extravagant in consumption (whether of food, cloth or natural resources). As cited in the Quran: “Eat and drink of that which Allah has provided and do not act corruptly, making mischief on the earth.” (Al Baqarah: 60)

In many ways, Ramadan mirrors a form of spiritual renewal – a time for new resolutions and a revival of inner peace. Similar to how one might attend a nature retreat once a year to escape the humdrum of a dog-eat-dog world, Ramadan provides an internal retreat where the mind and it’s natural ‘thirst’ for knowledge, awakening and reason is given greater precedence over the physical needs and desires of the body – needs which are regularly served but rarely satisfied.

The struggle for internal balance and control of the self is as old as mankind. Ramadan is a long arduous ordeal to prepare mankind for a journey into a new year with renewed spiritual energy and fresh pledges. It is a means of building self control and striking a balance between the spiritual and the mundane. It is a way of adapting one’s life to subjugate the evil instincts and vicious ambitions like lust, greed and hatred. Islam has a beautiful word to describe this war against man’s carnal instincts. It is called jihad.

In fact Islam repeatedly emphasizes it and calls it the ‘greater jihad’,. The “greater struggle” is the personal one: the struggle to resist temptation, combat one’s own evil traits and imperfections, and become a better person in God’s sight. the King James Bible speaks of it as seeking ‘The Kingdom of God’ and the Hindu spiritual classic Bhagavad Gita represents it in the battle of Kuruksetra.

The whole night of vigil and silent communion with God is meant to imbue oneself with the moral power to cope with the rigors of the fast as believers seek enlightenment and a light for guidance in the still majesty of darkness. These very brave souls are what the Islamic jurist, theologian and poet Jalaluddin Rumi referred to as ‘night travellers’ when he wrote: “Search the darkness, don’t run from it. Night travelers are full of light and you are too, don’t leave this companionship”. As the Quran reiterates: “The servants of (Allah) Most Gracious are those who walk on the earth in humility, and when the ignorant address them, they say, “Peace!” Those who spend the night in adoration of their Lord prostrate and standing” (25:63-64)

As believers recite and ponder over the Quran in the serene calm of the night, a divine radiance permeates the heart as the power of divinity glows through every speck of dust. It gives a truly exhilarating inward joy. It is like a traveler climbing a mountain; the higher he goes the farther he sees. It elevates the human mind to great heights of ecstasy, comparable to what the greatest English poet John Keats experienced when he discovered Chapman’s Homer:

Then felt I some watcher of the skies
When a new planet swims into his ken,
Or like stout Cortez when with eagle eyes
He stared at the Pacific—and all his men
Looked at each other with a wild surmise—
Silent upon a peak in Darien.

The end of Ramadan is signaled by the sighting of the new moon that signals the start of the next lunar month; it’s celebrated by a huge festival called ‘EId al-Fitr (the Feast of Fast-Breaking). It is also called “The Little ‘Eid,”—to distinguish it from “The Big ‘Id,” the al-Adha, which starts at the end of the period of pilgrimage to Mecca (the hajj and during which Muslims unable to actually go on pilgrimage participate spiritually in the rituals).

At the beginning of the festival, the community gathers at an outdoor prayer ground known as Eidgah to perform the Eid prayer. For the most part the crowd is dressed in sober white, but here and there a bright turban flashes its colours like a peacock at a poultry show. The colorful dresses of children look like so many rainbows, their colors enhanced by the sheen of satin and the shimmer of silk.

After the service the milling crowds exchange greetings and hug and embrace each other warmly.

The first Eid was celebrated in 624 A D by the Prophet Muhammad with his friends and relatives after the victory of the battle of Badar. One of the special dishes in the Indian subcontinent is savayya (known as sheer khurma) , a dish of fine, toasted vermicelli noodles dipped in creamy milk and richly flavoured with exotic dry fruits. It is served for the breakfast on Eid day.

The night preceding the Eid is the chaand raat, or the night of the moon, the last night of Ramadan. It stirs up vigorous festivities particularly among girls. They delicately apply grids of henna paste dabbed with a lemon and sugar concoction on each other’s palms. The hands, arms and legs are scrolled and florally patterned with lacy paisleys and fanciful filigrees in henna which will wear off in several weeks. The paste is applied in the late evening to flake off and dry by next morning, leaving the hennaed design on the skin.

In Qatar, it is a custom on the 14th day of the holy month of Ramadan for children to wear traditional outfits as children in other lands go caroling – hoping to receive in return a few nuts or sweets for their vocal efforts. The girls deck themselves in shimmering satins adorned with tinsel sequins, gleaming lacquered bangles on their wrists, that glisten along with the radiance from the eyes that are thinly penciled with kohl. Everywhere you have the glowing incense and fragrant perfumes. The grandees too do not want to be left behind as their faces glow with hennaed beards and kohled eyes, building up on a euphoria of nostalgic memories of their youthful Eids.

A number of Iran’s top diplomats and administration officials have attended a closed session of the parliament about the future of the 2015 nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), following the US withdrawal from the deal.

Speaking to the Tasnim News Agency, MP Mohammad Vahdati said that before holidng its regular open session, the parliament began the closed session on the JCPOA Sunday morning.

The closed session is underway with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance Massoud Karbasian, and Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Seyed Abbas Araqchi in attendance, he added.

The lawmaker went on to say that during the meeting, the ministers and diplomats will brief the MPs on their talks with European countries about the JCPOA.

Last week, Zarif made a tight diplomatic trip for negotiations on how to save the JCPOA in the wake of the US withdrawal from the multilateral nuclear deal.

The foreign minister held meetings with Chinese and Russian officials in Beijing and Moscow and then traveled to Brussels for talks with the European parties to the JCPOA.

He was gauging international readiness to guarantee Iran’s interests if it decides to remain in the nuclear pact a week after US President Donald Trump announced that the US was walking away from the JCPOA.

In a speech from the White House on May 8, Trump accused Iran of sponsoring terrorism and seeking nukes before announcing the US withdrawal from the 2015 agreement between Iran and the Group 5+1 (Russia, China, the US, Britain, France and Germany).

Following the controversial decision, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Iran weighs plans to remain in the agreement with the other five parties, provided that they ensure full benefits for Iran.

Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei has underlined that any decision to keep the deal running without the US should be conditional on “practical guarantees” from the three European parties to the JCPOA.

The Department of Justice has formally requested a review into possible abuses of the surveillance application process amid claims the FBI “infiltrated” the President Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign.

The news comes just hours after Trump demanded that the DOJ investigate claims that federal authorities surveilled his campaign for political purposes. Writing on Twitter, the president said he also wanted to know if any “demands or requests were made by people within the Obama Administration.”

The department asked the inspector general to liase with federal prosecutors to bring charges against FBI personnel found guilty of criminal conduct while investigating allegations of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia.

“The Department has asked the Inspector General to expand the ongoing review of the FISA application process to include determining whether there was any impropriety or political motivation in how the FBI conducted its counterintelligence investigation of persons suspected of involvement with the Russian agents who interfered in the 2016 presidential election,” a statement from DOJ spokesperson Sarah Isgur Flores read.

Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein warned that his department would take “appropriate action” if the FISA review uncovers any wrongdoing. “If anyone did infiltrate or surveil participants in a presidential campaign for inappropriate purposes, we need to know about it and take appropriate action,” Rosenstein said in a statement.

Earlier this week, both the New York Times and the Washington Post revealed that an operation, codenamed Crossfire Hurricane, was conducted by the FBI from the summer of 2016.

As part of the operation, an agent, since outed as veteran spy and academic Stefan Halper, was tasked with extracting potentially compromising information from George Papadopoulos, Sam Clovis, Carter Page and other members of the Trump campaign. Papadopoulos later pled guilty to making false statements to the FBI over his Russian links.

In a series of tweets over the last few days, Trump has said the story is “bigger than Watergate,” referencing the politically motivated break-in at the Democratic National Committee’s headquarters at the Watergate hotel. The scandal would eventually precipitate the resignation of former President Richard Nixon.

The original probe was launched in March amid claims the federal officials used allegations in the so-called ‘Steele Dossier’ to apply for a warrant to surveil Carter Page. The warrant was obtained using the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA).

By Suadad Al-Salhy

Iraqi political forces have made “remarkable” progress in talks to form the largest parliamentary bloc in preparation for a new government, politicians involved in the negotiations told Arab News.

The Sairoon alliance led by the powerful Shiite leader Muqtada Al-Sadr won the May 12 election with 54 parliamentary seats.

Talks aimed at forming a new government started immediately after the official results were announced late on Friday.

The parliamentary alliance is expected to be announced in the next few days, and while Al-Sadr can not become prime minister, he is playing a key role in the talks.

Dhiyaa Al-Assadi, the head of Sadrist Parliamentary bloc, told Arab News they have initial agreements with several key political players including the current prime minister Haider Al-Abadi and his Al-Nassir coalition and the prominent Shiite cleric Ammar Al-Hakim and his list Al-Hikma.

He added they also have basic agreements with Vice President Ayad Allawi and his Al-Wattiniya alliance along with several Kurdish parties.

“The post of prime minister is not our main goal,” Al-Assadi said. “Our goal is to make the required reforms and correct the mistakes that dominated the political process since 2003.”

Shiite politicians involved in the talks said the nucleus of the alliance is Sairoon and Hikma and negotiations are underway with Al-Abadi and the pro-Iranian Al-Fattah list to join.

“The details are supposed to be settled soon and the coalition supposed to be announced within 72 hours,” Hikma spokesman Mohammed Al-Maiyahi told Arab News.

The talks have focussed on deciding the form of the next government, its principles and program, sources involved said.

Abandoning the power sharing government, which has been adopted by political parties since 2003, is the most prominent issue agreed by the negotiators.

“We have agreed to form a national majority government. A government that represents all of Iraq’s contents (Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds) but does not include all the winning parliamentary blocs,” a senior Shiite politician told Arab News.

Rejecting foreign intervention in Iraqi affairs, writing a clear government program and pledging to implement it according to certain time limits, are also principles agreed between negotiators.

They decided not to nominate anyone for a ministerial position considered to have failed in previous posts or who has been involved in corruption.

“The government program is initial and the nominated prime minister has to be committed to its details and its time limits,” the politician said.

“He (the nominated PM) would be fired after a year, if he fails to meet the items of the government program and its time limits.”

The victory by Sairoon, an alliance of candidates from various affiliations, came amid low voter turnout with many Iraqis jaded by corruption and the lack of progress under recent governments.

Al-Fattah, which is headed by Hadi Al-Amiri, the commander of Badr Organization, one of the most prominent paramilitary groups, won 47 seats and came second. Al-Nassir came third with 44 seats, but its leader, Prime Minister Al-Abadi is still in a strong position to keep his job.

The negotiations need to form an alliance that consists of no less than 166 seats – half of the total in parliament plus one.

New research has shown that older people with very low heart disease risks also have very little frailty, raising the possibility that frailty could be prevented.

The largest study of its kind, led by the University of Exeter, found that even small reductions in risk factors helped to reduce frailty, as well as dementia, chronic pain, and other disabling conditions of old age.

Many perceive frailty to be an inevitable consequence of ageing – but the study, published in the Journal of Gerontology: Medical Sciences found that severe frailty was 85% less likely in those with near ideal cardiovascular risk factors.

It also found that those with fewer heart disease risk factors were much less likely to have other conditions unrelated to the heart – including chronic pain, incontinence, falls, fractures, and dementia.

Dr João Delgado, of the University of Exeter Medical School, joint lead author of the study, said: “This study indicates that frailty and other age-related diseases could be prevented and significantly reduced in older adults. Getting our heart risk factors under control could lead to much healthier old ages. Unfortunately, the current obesity epidemic is moving the older population in the wrong direction, however our study underlines how even small reductions in risk are worthwhile.” The study analysed data from more than 421,000 people aged 60-69 in both GP medical records and in the UK Biobank research study. Participants were followed up over ten years.

The researchers analysed six factors that could impact on heart health. They looked at uncontrolled high blood pressure, cholesterol and glucose levels, plus being overweight, doing little physical activity and being a current smoker.

The international research team involved the UConn Center on Aging at UConn Health in Connecticut, USA, and the National Institute on Aging, USA.

The project was funded by the Medical Research Council and the National Institute for Health Research. They analysed data from participants using GP medical records (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) and healthy volunteers (UK Biobank).

Dr Janice Atkins, of the University of Exeter Medical School, joint lead author of the study, said: “A quarter (26%) of participants from UK Biobank, made of predominantly healthy volunteers, had near perfect cardiovascular risk factors compared to only 2.4% of the population via GP records. This highlights the huge potential for improvement in cardiovascular risk factors of the general population in the UK.”

It is the first largescale study to show that older people with near-ideal cardiovascular risk factor profiles have better outcomes on a number of factors that are not directly linked to heart-disease.

Dr. George Kuchel, Director of the UConn Center on Aging at UConn Health, co-researcher on the study, said: “Individuals with untreated cardiovascular disease or other common chronic diseases appear to age faster and with more frailty. In the past, we viewed ageing and these common chronic diseases as being both inevitable and unrelated to each other. Now our growing body of scientific evidence on ageing shows what we have previously considered as inevitable might be prevented or delayed through earlier and better recognition and treatment of cardiac disease.

“This overall approach working at the interface of ageing and varied chronic diseases could be transformative in helping adults to maintain function and independence in late life, adding life to their years as opposed to just years to their life.”

Dr Ivan Pavlov, Programme Manager for Systems Medicine at the MRC, said: “These findings are relevant to us all because they re-emphasise the importance of a healthy lifestyle for better quality of life in old age. These new results also show that age-related conditions may share common risk factors or mechanisms with cardiovascular diseases. We’re living longer so it’s crucial that we recognise this by taking care of our bodies and monitoring our risk for disease even earlier in life.”

Due to global trade and tourism, mosquitoes – transmitters of dangerous infectious diseases – have spread to almost every part of the world.

Moreover, climate change promotes the spread of species that thrive under warmer temperatures even further. Scientists at the Goethe University and the Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung have now compared the ecological niches of the Asian tiger mosquito and the yellow fever mosquito on various continents with the following result: “Due to its longer invasion time span of 300 to 400 years, the yellow fever mosquito has almost completely filled its niches in non-native areas, whereas the Asian tiger mosquito, with a shorter invasion time span of 30 to 40 years, has not yet arrived in all regions where they would find a suitable environment,” said Prof. Sven Klimpel.

“Over the next one to five decades, infectious diseases transmitted through vectors will increase” concluded Sven Klimpel’s team at the Goethe University and the Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung. Vectors transmit agents that cause infectious diseases from a host to another organism without contracting the disease themselves. Many known vector species are native to tropical and subtropical regions. If vector species are established in a new area together with a disease agent, the area of risk for the associated disease will expand correspondingly.

Two prominent examples of vectors are the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) and the yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti). The yellow fever mosquito is the main vector of the yellow fever virus, the dengue virus, the Zika virus and several other viral diseases. The tiger mosquito can also transmit the Zika virus and the dengue virus, but transmits other disease agents as well, such as the West Nile virus and the Chikungunya virus. These two medically relevant vectors are the focus of the current study in Scientific Reports.

The yellow fever mosquito, originally native to Africa, began to spread throughout the world 300 to 400 years ago – presumably with the expansion of sugar cane plantations and slave trade. The tiger mosquito, which today is considered one of the 100 worst invasive species, originally comes from South and Southeast Asia. Over the past several decades, it has been introduced and spread by trade and tourism, especially by the trade of automobile tires and lucky bamboo (Dracaena spp.). For example, tiger mosquito eggs, larva and pupae were transported great distances by sea, surviving in small water puddles inside used automobile tires, or in water containers for lucky bamboo.

In their study, the scientists investigated the ecological niches of both species in their native and non-native range, i.e., the totality of environmental conditions in which a species can occur. In their new ranges of distribution, mosquitoes can encounter different environmental conditions than in their native ranges. Invasive mosquito species are said to be especially quick to adapt to new climatic conditions. The scientists, however, found no evidence to support this. Both species occupy a broad niche and occur in a large number of different environmental conditions in their native ranges. Since similar climatic conditions prevail in the new distribution ranges, worldwide expansion cannot be explained by a niche expansion through adaptation, although local adaptation and genetic changes in species’ traits cannot be ruled out.

The scientists were, however, able to identify a difference between the two species: that time plays an important role in the expansion or invasion of a species. With its longer time span of invasion, the yellow fever mosquito almost completely fills its niche in the new, non-native distribution ranges; i.e. it occurs under many climatic conditions that also exist in its native distribution range.

The Asian tiger mosquito is a different case. In the new distribution ranges, it does not (yet) occur in all habitats that offer suitable climatic conditions. The researchers therefore predict a further expansion potential for this species in the future.

Klimpel summed up: “The Asian tiger mosquito can already be found in nearly all southern European countries, and due to its broad niche, it will inevitably spread and establish itself in northern Europe as well. Further exotic mosquito species such as Aedes japoniucs (East Asian bush mosquito), Aedes koreicus or Aedes atropalpus will follow – or have already arrived – in Central Europe.”

A French nanorobotics team from the Femto-ST Institute in Besançon, France, assembled a new microrobotics system that pushes forward the frontiers of optical nanotechnologies. Combining several existing technologies, the μRobotex nanofactory builds microstructures in a large vacuum chamber and fixes components onto optical fiber tips with nanometer accuracy.

The microhouse construction, reported in the Journal of Vacuum Science and Technology A, from AIP Publishing, demonstrates how researchers can advance optical sensing technologies when they manipulate ion guns, electron beams and finely controlled robotic piloting.

Until now, lab-on-fiber technologies had no robotic actuators for nanoassembly, so working at this scale inhibited engineers from building microstructures. This innovation allows miniaturized sensing elements to be installed on fiber tips so engineers can see and manipulate different components. With this advancement, optical fibers as thin as human hair can be inserted into inaccessible locations like jet engines and blood vessels to detect radiation levels or viral molecules.

“For the first time we were able to realize patterning and assembly with less than 2 nanometers of accuracy, which is a very important result for the robotics and optical community,” said Jean-Yves Rauch, an author on the paper.

The French engineers combined all the technological components for nanoassembly — a focused ion beam, a gas injection system and a tiny maneuverable robot — in a vacuum chamber, and installed a microscope to view the assembly process. “We decided to build the microhouse on the fiber to show that we are able to realize these microsystem assemblies on top of an optical fiber with high accuracy,” Rauch said.

Building a microhouse is like making a giant dice from a piece of paper, but nanoassembly requires more sophisticated tools. The focused ion beam is used like scissors to cut or score the silica membrane “paper” of the house. Once the walls fold into position, a lower power setting is selected on the ion gun, and the gas injection system sticks the edges of the structure into place. The low-power ion beam and gas injection then gently sputters a tiled pattern on the roof, a detail that emphasizes the accuracy and flexibility of the system.

In this process, the ion gun had to focus on an area only 300 micrometers by 300 micrometers to fire ions onto the fiber tip and silica membrane. “It’s very challenging to pilot the robot with high accuracy at this cross point between the two beams,” Rauch said. He explained that two engineers worked at multiple computers to control the process. Many steps are already automated, but in the future the team hopes to automate all the robotic stages of assembly.

Now, using the μRobotex system, these engineers are constructing functionalized microstructures to detect specific molecules by attaching their microstructures onto optical fibers. The nanorobotics team is hoping to push the limits of the technology further still, by constructing smaller structures and fixing these onto carbon nanotubes, only 20 nanometers to 100 nanometers in diameter.

The wealth gap between households of seniors and those with children has ballooned since 1989, a new study finds.

Also, wealth is now spread very differently within each group: The gap between the richest and poorest seniors has remained stable, but a vast economic divide now exists among families with children. Among the wealthiest parents — the parental 1 percent — average net worth increased by $3 million between 1989 and 2013. Meanwhile, a third of all families with children have negative net worth due to debt.

Families at the bottom of the wealth distribution have it hardest, said Christina Gibson-Davis, associate professor at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy, who co-authored the paper with Christine Percheski of Northwestern University.

“If your net worth is in the red for $233, you are pretty stuck as a parent. You probably can’t provide much for your child, much less think about sending her to college,” Gibson-Davis said.

The study, “Children and the Elderly: Wealth Inequality Among America’s Dependents,” appears online in the journal Demography.

The researchers analyzed data pertaining to 41,500 households from the Survey of Consumer Finances from 1989 to 2013. The survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank is considered the best source of household wealth data for the United States.

In 1989, senior households’ median net worth was approximately 3.8 times greater than the net worth of households with at least one child under 18. By 2013, after adjusting for inflation, senior households’ median net worth was 12.5 times greater.

“We knew that the elderly had more wealth than younger families. What we didn’t know was elderly households have seen increases in their wealth, while families with children have lost wealth,” said Gibson-Davis.

Several factors contributed to seniors having greater wealth. Since the early 1980s, the United States has directed far more social welfare dollars to those over 65 compared with those under the age of 18. Seniors are also protected from declines in purchasing power because their Social Security income is indexed to keep up with inflation.

The elderly also had lower levels of debt than households with children. They purchased and paid off their homes before the housing crisis of the late 2000s.

In contrast, most parents saw little gains in wealth. Labor market changes led to declining wages for lower-skilled parents. They took on more debt, in part to pay for rising education costs. The Great Recession and the collapse of the housing market led to many being underwater on their homes, the primary asset for most families.

There was also rising inequality among households with children during the period. Those in the top 10 percent of wealth, especially the top 1 percent, had large increases in net worth, with rising income, increased home equity and large returns from the stock market.

Meanwhile, households at the bottom of the wealth distribution had declining income, increased debt and loss of home equity.

In 2013, the least wealthy 90 percent of families held less than 20 percent of wealth, compared to 42 percent for the parental 1 percent.

“The good news in our study is that wealth has increased for poor and working-class elderly couples,” said Gibson-Davis. “The bad news is that wealth has not increased for poor and working-class families with kids. Many households with children simply don’t have the resources to successfully raise the next generation.”

The overall poverty level in Sri Lanka has declined in the recent years, according to the Central Bank’s 2017 Annual Report. Household income inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient declined to 0.45 based on the estimates of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) – 2016 from 0.48 in the HIES – 2012/13.

The HIES – 2016 of the Department of Census and Statistics reveals that poverty levels of the country as reflected by the Poverty Headcount Ratio (PHCR) has declined from 6.7 percent to 4.1 percent. The decline in PHCR was seen in the urban, rural and estate sectors.

However, it also states that disparities at provincial and district levels continue to remain posing challenges to equitable income growth in the country. At district level the Kilinochchi district recorded the highest PHCR of 18.2 percent while the lowest PHCR was recorded in the Colombo district of 0.9 percent. The number of persons below the official poverty line stood at 843,913 and at district level the highest number of poor persons was reported in the Kandy district while the lowest was in the Mannar district.

However, what is alarming according to the Central Bank is that the poorest 20 percent account for only 4.8 percent of the total income earned in the country while the richest 20 percent have earned 50.8 percent, indicating the level of income disparity despite the rising income levels as reflected in the per capita GDP estimates. The income inequality according to the regulator could be improved by revisiting the income redistributive policies of the country and improving economic opportunities for the poor households.

Ensuring better education opportunities for the current labour force and future entrants, incentivizing higher labour force participation particularly among the female population are some of the strategies proposed by the bank to further bring down the poverty levels in the country.

The government aims to create one million jobs by 2020 in a move to boost household income and eradicate poverty in the country. The year 2017 was declared as the year of poverty alleviation in Sri Lanka through the promotion of inclusive growth in keeping with the sustainable development goals of the United Nations. The Department of Samurdhi Development launched a people empowerment program last year targeting to empower 125,000 families selecting nine families from each Grama Niladhari division to achieve the target of no poverty by 2030.

Estimates reveal that around 6 percent of the population in the country yet live below the poverty line of earning less than one US$ a day. Statistics also reveal that nearly half of the world’s population live on less than $ 2.50 a day while over 1.3 billion live in extreme poverty living on less than $ 1.25 a day.

A modern and socially progressive Iran that supports its neighbours, and doesn’t pursue nuclear weapons or suppress the views of its people: that’s the dream of the 2015 Iran nuclear weapons deal envisioned by proponents in the West. However, following President Trump’s recent withdrawal from the nuclear agreement known as the ‘Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action’ (JCPOA), a broader view of Iran’s foreign policy, and a view that seeks to better understand the full range of activity developed by Iran’s mixed system of government is now more urgent than ever.

In protests across 140 Iranian cities held in December and January, the Iranian people demanded exactly this sort of broader recognition. With chants like “let Syria go, think about us” and “the enemy is here” many protesters highlighted perceived inadequacies in the Islamic republic’s mixed system of government in which the executive, judiciary and parliament are overseen by a complex network of influential groups and committees made up of religious leaders, and overseen by a Supreme Leader.

Key concern’s running through these protests were the Iranian government’s domestic promotion of anti-Western propaganda, constraints on free speech and extraordinarily high levels of violence in the region. And with chants of “death to [Supreme leader] Khamenei” and “death to [President] Rouhani” protestors also made clear their very particular demands for wholesale change of both personnel and existing governmental structures.

Notwithstanding the constraints imposed by the JCPOA, Iran is thought to have continued efforts to develop the missile technology necessary to launch the nuclear weapons prohibited by the international agreement: and many Iranians argue their republic has continued to reap the financial rewards of the international agreement while the people have been starved, tortured, and even executed.

In other words, although for different reasons to President Trump, many Iranian people believe that the status quo established by the JCPOA cannot continue.

For many in the West, the complexities of politics across the Middle East often renders interpretation and understanding incomplete because systems of government appear opaque, and political nuances often too subtle to fully comprehend. However, we should be knowledgeable about contemporary politics in the Middle East because human rights, social progress, and the long term economic prosperity of countries like Iran are, after all, directly and equally important to those of us in the West.

In that light, useful perspective is developed by considering recent remarks by Iranian officials themselves that preceded President Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA.

Speaking to the Iranian labour minister in Qom on April 27, a senior ayatollah, Javadi Amoli, characterised those in charge of Iran’s economic affairs as inept and told the country’s governing officials, “If there will be an uprising, all of us will be thrown into the sea… we have nowhere to escape to.”

To some extent, these statements represent a tacit admission that the real prize of the JCPOA has largely eluded ordinary Iranian people because much of the foreign currency generated by the international agreement has gone to “the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and cronies of the clerical regime”. The argument is that the economic benefit created by the JCPOA has rewarded only the political actors who are responsible for confrontational foreign policies, persistent nuclear ambitions, and the missile tests that violate the international agreement. It’s tough to imagine how this interpretation could be any worse.

In effect, the JCPOA had established an international accord within which the Iranian government had everything to lose and the Iranian people had little to gain. The loss of the United States’ support for the JCPOA combined with the widespread domestic unrest that has continued beyond the protests of December and January, driven by a variety of domestic problems including Iran’s currency losing half its value in twelve months, means the Iranian system of government is now more vulnerable than ever before.

So, outside the JCPOA, it seems the people of Iran might have everything to gain by pushing for a new agreement and fresh policies that are in line with a new emerging reality in the region. Some important aspects of this emerging reality were highlighted in a recent statement by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). Pointing to the domestic protests of December and January, NCRI President Elect, Maryam Rajavi declared that the Iranian people are committed to regime change and that “the end of religious dictatorship in Iran is a requisite for regional peace, democracy, security, and stability.” If indeed regime change proves to be a goal of the United States withdrawing from the JCPOA, it would appear time for Western observers to recognise that goal has ready partners.

The NCRI’s main constituent group, the People’s Mojahedin Organisation of Iran (PMOI/MEK), which previously provided intelligence on Iran’s nuclear weapons program to the West, advocates democratic values and peace within a future Iranian state that represents the interests of ordinary Iranians, who are arguably among the most pro-western of any country in the Middle East.

Supporting efforts to build representative democracy, peace and prosperity for the ordinary people of Iran isn’t just consistent with Western values; it’s not even just the right thing to do; it’s also good policy for building a secure future for everyone if the JCPOA collapses, and hopefully take Iran’s nuclear ambitions with it. The NCRI vision of how that future will be achieved is to be debated on June 30 when the organisation holds its annual international gathering in France. There are few certainties in the midst of this new and emerging reality provoked by President Trump’s JCPOA withdrawal, but the international community could do worse than pay attention to the June 30 gathering when considering how it can help secure human rights, social progress and long-term economic prosperity for Iran. The alternative is to do nothing and risk everything.

Regardless of exactly what policies emerge in the wake of discussions over the fate of the JCPOA and the NCRI Gathering, one thing is already clear: Those policies will hold more promise than the status quo for many ordinary Iranians.

Dr

A modern and socially progressive Iran that supports its neighbours, and doesn’t pursue nuclear weapons or suppress the views of its people: that’s the dream of the 2015 Iran nuclear weapons deal envisioned by proponents in the West. However, following President Trump’s recent withdrawal from the nuclear agreement known as the ‘Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action’ (JCPOA), a broader view of Iran’s foreign policy, and a view that seeks to better understand the full range of activity developed by Iran’s mixed system of government is now more urgent than ever.

In protests across 140 Iranian cities held in December and January, the Iranian people demanded exactly this sort of broader recognition. With chants like “let Syria go, think about us” and “the enemy is here” many protesters highlighted perceived inadequacies in the Islamic republic’s mixed system of government in which the executive, judiciary and parliament are overseen by a complex network of influential groups and committees made up of religious leaders, and overseen by a Supreme Leader.

Key concern’s running through these protests were the Iranian government’s domestic promotion of anti-Western propaganda, constraints on free speech and extraordinarily high levels of violence in the region. And with chants of “death to [Supreme leader] Khamenei” and “death to [President] Rouhani” protestors also made clear their very particular demands for wholesale change of both personnel and existing governmental structures.

Notwithstanding the constraints imposed by the JCPOA, Iran is thought to have continued efforts to develop the missile technology necessary to launch the nuclear weapons prohibited by the international agreement: and many Iranians argue their republic has continued to reap the financial rewards of the international agreement while the people have been starved, tortured, and even executed.

In other words, although for different reasons to President Trump, many Iranian people believe that the status quo established by the JCPOA cannot continue.

For many in the West, the complexities of politics across the Middle East often renders interpretation and understanding incomplete because systems of government appear opaque, and political nuances often too subtle to fully comprehend. However, we should be knowledgeable about contemporary politics in the Middle East because human rights, social progress, and the long term economic prosperity of countries like Iran are, after all, directly and equally important to those of us in the West.

In that light, useful perspective is developed by considering recent remarks by Iranian officials themselves that preceded President Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA.

Speaking to the Iranian labour minister in Qom on April 27, a senior ayatollah, Javadi Amoli, characterised those in charge of Iran’s economic affairs as inept and told the country’s governing officials, “If there will be an uprising, all of us will be thrown into the sea… we have nowhere to escape to.”

To some extent, these statements represent a tacit admission that the real prize of the JCPOA has largely eluded ordinary Iranian people because much of the foreign currency generated by the international agreement has gone to “the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and cronies of the clerical regime”. The argument is that the economic benefit created by the JCPOA has rewarded only the political actors who are responsible for confrontational foreign policies, persistent nuclear ambitions, and the missile tests that violate the international agreement. It’s tough to imagine how this interpretation could be any worse.

In effect, the JCPOA had established an international accord within which the Iranian government had everything to lose and the Iranian people had little to gain. The loss of the United States’ support for the JCPOA combined with the widespread domestic unrest that has continued beyond the protests of December and January, driven by a variety of domestic problems including Iran’s currency losing half its value in twelve months, means the Iranian system of government is now more vulnerable than ever before.

So, outside the JCPOA, it seems the people of Iran might have everything to gain by pushing for a new agreement and fresh policies that are in line with a new emerging reality in the region. Some important aspects of this emerging reality were highlighted in a recent statement by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). Pointing to the domestic protests of December and January, NCRI President Elect, Maryam Rajavi declared that the Iranian people are committed to regime change and that “the end of religious dictatorship in Iran is a requisite for regional peace, democracy, security, and stability.” If indeed regime change proves to be a goal of the United States withdrawing from the JCPOA, it would appear time for Western observers to recognise that goal has ready partners.

The NCRI’s main constituent group, the People’s Mojahedin Organisation of Iran (PMOI/MEK), which previously provided intelligence on Iran’s nuclear weapons program to the West, advocates democratic values and peace within a future Iranian state that represents the interests of ordinary Iranians, who are arguably among the most pro-western of any country in the Middle East.

Supporting efforts to build representative democracy, peace and prosperity for the ordinary people of Iran isn’t just consistent with Western values; it’s not even just the right thing to do; it’s also good policy for building a secure future for everyone if the JCPOA collapses, and hopefully take Iran’s nuclear ambitions with it. The NCRI vision of how that future will be achieved is to be debated on June 30 when the organisation holds its annual international gathering in France. There are few certainties in the midst of this new and emerging reality provoked by President Trump’s JCPOA withdrawal, but the international community could do worse than pay attention to the June 30 gathering when considering how it can help secure human rights, social progress and long-term economic prosperity for Iran. The alternative is to do nothing and risk everything.

Regardless of exactly what policies emerge in the wake of discussions over the fate of the JCPOA and the NCRI Gathering, one thing is already clear: Those policies will hold more promise than the status quo for many ordinary Iranians.

*Dr Paul Monaghan is an academic and business consultant, and writes on political and humanitarian affairs and the application of democracy in both Europe and the Middle East. As a former Member of the United Kingdom Parliament, Dr Monaghan works with governments and non-governmental organisations across the Middle East informing social and foreign policy. He holds a psychology degree and a PhD from the University of Stirling and contributes to several research centres and publications.

One of the perhaps half-dozen honest news-sites, the Greanville Post, ran this news-commentary from Jason Holland, on May 17th, opening:

May 14th was quite a day for the empire, the … show on full display exhibiting lots of swagger in its death throes. The people on the inside are the last to know. They don’t see it but everyone else does. The rest of the world can see the toxic death culture, they see the rationalizations for idiocy and how silly they seem. The US empire has no clothes but wears only a paper thin emotional veneer resembling a child who attempts to lie for the first time after murdering the family dog. This is the modern American mind of empire. Delusional and full of contrived pablum to excuse their wretched actions. Trump is truly the perfect man to represent this country, its true face. A huckster, a gangster, and a liar that says one thing and does the opposite. The actions and the results before us are the real values of empire and not their diseased words, which are devoid of truth.

On May 14th the empire’s best friend Israel continued to show its reverence for death while inhumanely shooting protestors on the Gaza strip. 58 lives lost and 2,700 injured are the current stats, horrors playing out that we’ll never be able to wrap our minds around, but tomorrow Palestinians will wake up and know a life that has more suffering than the day before. Many of the injured will look forward to death knowing the Israeli government lacks all basic compassion for fellow humans and the wounded know the path ahead will contain even more hardship. The implications of Israeli actions won’t make headlines for long in the US, and the externalities we’ll never see directly tied to this story will cause sadness and turmoil they will struggle to fight past for years – if Israel lets them live that long. We humans are more fragile than what is put onto our TV screens. Characters undergo one torturous event after another with little repercussions, but in reality our emotions break, especially when all community has been stripped out from under us, especially when people we love are killed or maimed for no good reason.<

The obscene juxtaposition of the US embassy celebration in Jerusalem, with Ivanka Trump and hubby Jared Kuschner on tap to represent the US,  the occasion punctuated by the expected narcissistically mendacious speechifying as the IDF was systematically killing and wounding hundreds of unarmed protesters in the Palestinian “open-air prisons”, may have been—at least momentarily—a bit too much even for members of the US imperial establishment. Soon, there was a storm of criticism on social media, with some of the most scathing commentary coming from quarters usually regarded as “safe” to US/Israel actions, such as prominent members of the political class and even the servile media. TIME-Warner’s gossip sheet People magazine provided a good summary of the reaction with a page aptly titled, Ivanka Trump Under Fire for Celebrating at Jerusalem Embassy While Dozens Killed in Gaza. (https://people.com/politics/ivanka-trump-jerusalem-embassy-killed-gaza/). The page is worth looking at because it is so eerily surreal in its truth for a US mainstream publication.  This simply doesn’t happen very often or ever. The page kicks off with this para:

President Donald Trump‘s daughter and adviser Ivanka Trump was all smiles as she and husband Jared Kushner attended the opening of the new U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem on Monday.

But as the members of the first family celebrated the controversial relocation of the U.S. embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, protests against the decision turned deadly in Gaza. The Huffington Post reported that Israeli troops shot and killed at least 58 protesters while around 2,700 others were injured, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry.

Now Trump, 36, and Kushner, 37, are being criticized on social media for celebrating the opening amid the bloodshed. Comedian Chelsea Handler and others tweeted about the chilling juxtaposition while also raising concerns over Trump and Kushner, two of the president’s most senior advisers, representing the U.S. abroad.

Chelsea Handler

@chelseahandler
I’m glad Ivanka and Jared could take time away from their busy schedules of not being qualified to represent the US to go represent the US, and celebrate moving the capital in exchange for the adelson’s donations, while 50+ Palestinians have been killed.
1:28 PM – May 14, 2018
David Beard

@dabeard
Smiling during a slaughter: Ivanka makes @NYDailyNews front page on Tuesday #Jerusalem #Gaza
11:08 PM – May 14, 2018

Are they as lacking in compassion (not to say basic decency) as is the Israeli regime?

If so, then on what basis do they consider themselves to be qualified to lecture the world about “God” and about “morality” and about “decency” and about right and wrong?

They seek to spread their faith — whatever it is — to others (that being what the term “Evangelical” means), but why do they not instead bow their heads down in shame — and convert to fundamental decency?

Evangelical voters are Trump’s core base. (Trump won 81 percent of “white evangelical or white born-again Christians,” He won the White House because of them. The only two demographic categories that exceeded this percentage were Republicans (90%) and voters whose top concern was “can bring needed change” (83%), and the only demographic that matched it was “conservatives” (81%); but none of those three other categories is trying to evangelize the world to accept its particular morality — which Evangelicals are, by their very defintion.) Why don’t Evangelicals quit this evil man and abandon their church and ‘moral leaders’ who have so lied to them about “decency” and “right” and “wrong” and about what the moral priorities are, and what the basis for those priorities should be? How can they look at themselves in the mirror (or at their preachers on Sunday morning)? Why don’t they simply walk away from their deceived past, instead of (as they’ve been doing until now) keep themselves just glued to it? They don’t have to do that; they choose to do it.

I, too, voted for Trump (mainly because Hillary Clinton persistently demanded a “no-fly zone” over Syria in which the U.S. would be shooting down Russian planes and so she would have precipitated WW III — and now Trump himself might do that which she had promised to do). But by now, it is obvious that Trump has adhered only to his promises to Evangelicals and other extremist-right-wingers, and not at all to any of the progressive promises that he had made when campaigning for the White House. Isn’t the evidence of Trump’s evil, clear enough, yet? This man and his entire ghoulish clan (such as Ivanka and Jared) are a pestilence upon the world, a far-right international demagoguery, which honors only his most-far-right promises, and ignores the rest. Is that ‘good’ in the ‘morality’ of Evangelicals (Trump’s core voting-base)? If so, then what does this say about Evangelicals? Is this what they stand for?

Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010

Details of an assassination plot against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reportedly planned to be carried out during the leader’s visit to Bosnia and Herzegovina came to light on Saturday, according to Turkey’s Anadolu state news agency.

According to the agency, Turkish intelligence confirmed reports that a Turkish group planned to assassinate the President during his visit to the Balkans on Sunday. Security services reportedly received intelligence from Turkish citizens living in the Macedonian capital of Skopje.

Western intelligence services had also passed on information related to the planned assassination to Turkey. Turkish authorities are investigating the matter, but gave no further details on the alleged plot.

Turkish government spokesman Bekir Bozdag said on Saturday that Erdogan’s trip to Bosnia would continue as planned, adding that the President “is not afraid and does not run away from causes he believes in”.

Erdogan is set to hold a rally in the Bosnian capital of Sarajevo on Sunday, almost one month before Turkey heads to the polls to vote in the general election on June 24.

If re-elected, new laws will be enacted that would expand Erdogan’s presidential powers, that he claims is in the interest of “streamlining” the political system, however detractors claim is a slide towards authoritarianism.

The Turkish strongman has several groups fiercely opposed to his leadership, most notably the country’s Kurdish minority, whose PKK Kurdistan Workers’ Party have been leading a separatist insurgency since 1984.

By Jaba Devdariani

(Civil.Ge) — For decades now, socially and politically active Georgians have been waiting – even hoping – for the apocalypse.

Ever since the Soviet troops have massacred and gassed pro-independence supporters here on 9 April 1989, every political generation takes it as its ritual obligation to step on to the stage of Tbilisi’s Rustaveli Avenue, against the backdrop of the Stalinist pillars of the Old Parliament. They re-enact the spectacle of the demand for liberty, ending in martyrdom and a hope for resurrection, which has become the founding tragedy of the new Georgian Republic. Its formal proclamation on 9 April 1991 has sealed the arcane link with 1989.

And true to the form, the “Bassiani generation” has stepped up on the stage on 12 May. Outraged with the police crackdown on their space of respite in Tbilisi’s eponymous night-club, they came to express their protest.

A music-and-dance exaltation on the night of 12 May has echoed that of 1989 in form, although not necessarily in style – rave rhythms resonated this time, rather than national dances and patriotic songs of 1989. Police cordons, water cannons and seemingly recalcitrant government have provided a familiar backdrop. The true villain was, however, missing.

Not for long. It has materialized in the form of home-grown, yet all-too-authentic, self-appointed “fascists”, throwing Nazi salutes and pledging to annihilate proponents of the decadent lifestyle and degenerate art. The stage was set for the tragedy, the final showdown between the Good and the Evil.

Yet, it was not to come. The police have struggled, but held the ultra-nationalists back, bloodying a couple of noses and making few arrests. The ravers have satisfied themselves with the Interior Ministers’ formal apology and a promise to work on drug policy together.

Their frustration notwithstanding, perhaps they miss the rays of hope. Perhaps, this generation has chosen (despite their best judgement) to trust and engage, rather than reject and confront, to forego a narrow factional triumph for the wider societal victory.

It may come, that the hopes would wilt and the onlookers would rivet themselves to TV and computer screens once again.

But it may also happen, that those who are obliged to uphold the law and curb the violence, would do so – under citizens’ watchful eye. It may come, that those who protested yesterday will find ways to engage in a discussion, draft laws and push for solutions that would save lives in the clubs and on the dance floors, but also advance the way their country works as a democratic community.

These are not the times for flower power, but of the combative strands of grass that push through the concrete walls of Tbilisi’s central stadium, whose dark entrails house Bassiani club.

*Jaba Devdariani has assisted to Civil.ge’s birth. Former international civil servant, he continues to observe Georgia from afar and contributes his views.

Repeating seismic events–events that have the same frequency content and waveform shapes–may offer a glimpse at the movement of magma and volcanic gases underneath Turrialba and Poas, two well-known active volcanoes in Costa Rica.

At the 2018 SSA Annual Meeting, Rebecca Salvage of the Observatorio Vulcanologico y Sismologico de Costa Rica presented an analysis of these repeating signals from the volcanoes since July 2016.

When these repeating events are identified at a seismic station, researchers assume that these “events are all produced by a single mechanism and at a similar location at depth … and by a source which is either non-destructive or able to quickly renew itself,” Salvage noted. “Therefore, the identification and an understanding of repeating seismicity may allow us some insight into which parts of the volcanic system at depth are active, and the frequency content of the repeating seismicity may be indicative of processes occurring at depth.”

At Turrialba, for instance, Salvage and her colleagues identified a type of repeating event called “drumbeat seismicity,” characterized by a very short time interval between events. In January 2017, drumbeat seismicity at the volcano lasted less than three hours but contained hundreds of events. Eight hours later, there was a small eruption at Turrialba. In this case, the drumbeat seismicity may have been a “precursor signal” of the eruption, related to magma moving toward the surface, Salvage said.

“However, not all eruptions are preceded by these types of earthquakes, and often these earthquakes occur with no identifiable eruptive activity,” she added. “A better understanding of drumbeats in terms of the conditions under which they do occur, and statistical analysis on inter-event times and occurrence rates will allow us to better assess whether these can actually be used as a warning tool.”

At Poas, the researchers noted another interesting halt in six families of repeating seismic events, just two hours after a swarm of magnitude 2.7 and higher earthquakes was recorded very near the volcano. In this case, Salvage and her colleagues think that the earthquakes may have influenced the stress field around the volcano in a way that halted the repeating events. The stress field may have changed when the earthquakes generated small displacements on local faults that created similar small diversions in magmatic gas and ash rising to the surface.

Research shows that the more skills children bring with them to kindergarten – in basic math, reading, even friendship and cooperation – the more likely they will succeed in those same areas in school. Hence, “kindergarten readiness” is the goal of many preschool programs, and a motivator for many parents.

Now it’s time to add language to that mix of skills, says a new University of Washington-led study. Not only does a child’s use of vocabulary and grammar predict future proficiency with the spoken and written word, but it also affects performance in other subject areas.

Language, in other words, supports academic and social success, says Amy Pace, an assistant professor in the UW Department of Speech and Hearing Sciences.

“A lot of other research focuses on math, science and literacy, and they don’t even consider that language could be playing a role,” she said. “But really, it emerges as a strong predictor across subject areas. Why do kids succeed in math, for example? Part of it could be having a strong math vocabulary.”

The study was the first to look at a comprehensive set of school readiness skills and to try to determine which, of all of them, is the most solid predictor of a child’s later success. Language — the ability to fluidly learn words and to string them together into sentences — was the hands-down winner, said co-author Kathy Hirsh-Pasek, director of the Infant Language Laboratory at Temple University.

For this study, published online April 30 in Early Childhood Research Quarterly, Pace and her colleagues from Temple University, the University of Delaware and the University of North Carolina examined longitudinal data from more than 1,200 children in the National Institute of Child Health & Human Development’s Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development. That study used several measures of academic and social skills at specific ages and grade levels, including evaluations upon entry to kindergarten and in grades 1, 3 and 5.

While there is considerable research on how children develop specific skills over time, much of that research is focused on patterns of learning within a single subject area, like math or reading. Researchers in the UW study wanted to determine whether there are relationships between skills when considered in combination, and to think about how these combined abilities might predict gains, or growth, above what might be expected based on the skills the child demonstrates when they first enter a kindergarten classroom. The team analyzed academic and behavioral assessments, assigned standardized scores and looked at how scores correlated in grades 1, 3, and 5. Growth curve modeling allowed the team to look at children’s levels of performance across time and investigate rates of change at specific times in elementary school.

Researchers found that of the skills and milestones evaluated – social/emotional, attention, health, reading, math and language – only language skills, when a child entered school, predicted his or her performance both within that subject area and most others (math, reading and social skills) from first through fifth grade. Reading ability in kindergarten predicted reading, math and language skills later on; and math proficiency correlated with math and reading performance over time.

People often confuse language with literacy, Pace said. Reading skills include the ability to decode letter and sound combinations to pronounce words, and to comprehend word meanings and contexts. Language is the ability to deploy those words and use complex syntax and grammar to communicate in speech and writing. And that’s why it has such potential to affect other areas of development, Pace said. At a time when so much focus is on math and science education, it is language that deserves attention, too.

“It provides a foundation for social interaction. If you’re stronger in language, you will be able to communicate with peers and teachers,” she said. “Language also relates to executive functioning, the ability to understand and follow through on the four-step directions from the teacher. And it helps solve problems in math and science, because understanding terminology and abstract concepts relies on a knowledge of language.”

For example, language ability at school entry not only predicted language proficiency through fifth grade as expected, but it also predicted growth in literacy between grades 1 and 3, and a similar amount of growth between grades 3 and 5. In effect, language gave children a boost to help them learn more than researchers might have predicted based on the children’s performance at school entry.

Measuring the impact of one skill on another, in addition to measuring growth in the same skill, provides more of a “whole child” perspective, Pace said. A child who enters school with little exposure to number sense or spatial concepts but with strong social skills may benefit from that emotional buffer. “If we look at just a very narrow slice of a child’s ability, it may be predictive of ability in that area, but it’s not necessarily a good prognosticator of what’s to come overall for that child,” she said.

Researchers expected to find that the effects of kindergarten readiness would wear off by third grade, the time when elementary school curriculum transitions from introducing foundational skills to helping students apply those skills as they delve deeper into content areas. But according to the study, children’s performance in kindergarten continues to predict their performance in grades three through five. This was consistent for multiple skill areas, including language, math and reading, and suggests that bolstering children’s development in those first five years is essential for long-term academic success.

A few findings merit further study, Pace added, especially as they relate to educational policy. For example, children who entered kindergarten with higher levels of skills appeared to make fewer developmental and academic gains than those children who started at lower levels. That is consistent with other research, but, Pace said, it’s worth examining how to better serve high-performing students.

The study also represents an opportunity to rethink what skills are considered measures of kindergarten-readiness, she said.

“Language ability at school entry consistently emerges as an important predictor of student outcomes. This may be why the first three to five years are so critical for future academic and social development,” Pace said. “It is the child’s earliest, high-quality interactions with parents, teachers and caregivers that promote a strong communication foundation – and this foundation goes on to serve as the bedrock for future language and learning.”

The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2018, one of the annual international platforms that brings together political, industry and business leaders to discuss the most pressing issues affecting global economics, development and finance, will take place on May 24 to 26 in St. Petersburg.

Ahead of the forum, the official website of the President of the Russian Federation has published his welcome greetings to participants, organisers and guests. In his greetings, Putin expressed his confidence that ideas and initiatives to be developed during the forum would facilitate the recovery and growth of the world economy.

“By harnessing the wealth of scientific and technological potential which is rapidly expanding in digital and other areas today, we can improve quality of life and boost stable and harmonious development in all nations and across the world as a whole,” he stressed in his message.

“And it is crucial that we strive towards increasing mutual trust, promoting wide-ranging integration processes, realising large-scale and promising projects. Russia is always open to this kind of partnership and cooperation,” Putin said.

According to RosCongress, the event organiser, about 15,000 guests from more than 140 countries expected to participate in the forum. France, China, India and Japan as guests of the forum will have their own exhibition pavilions on site, which will house a presentation area and a business space for delegations and representatives to interact with business partners from other countries.

Delegations from Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, Greece, Italy, India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Israel, Vietnam, USA, Canada, African countries and others will participate in various business events. BRICS member states (Brazil, India, China and South Africa) have been prominently represented there.

For foreign participants, including Africans, the forum is very useful for networking and discussing business strategies, and serves as an important study platform useful for deepening knowledge about the economy and possible ways of transacting business in Russia.

Series of official speeches and panel discussions will undoubtedly dominate the three-day event. The special sessions on business and investment opportunities will include the “Russia – Africa Business Dialogue” that has generated increasing interests among Russian and African businesses, international companies, African governments and institutions.

According to Anton Kobyakov, Adviser to the President of the Russian Federation and Executive Secretary of the SPIEF Organising Committee, the upcoming forum will hold two special celebrations marking the occasions related to the continent: Africa Day and the 55th anniversary of the African Union.

“Economic cooperation between Russia and Africa has been developing rapidly during recent years. We have seen a positive dynamic in trade with Ethiopia, Cameroon, Angola, Sudan, Zimbabwe and other countries”, says Kobyakov. “I strongly believe that Russian-African cooperation at SPIEF, Russia’s largest forum will stimulate trade and economic ties, as well as investment activity.”

Kobyakov further disclosed that during the event, experts will share best practices and discuss new opportunities for implementing joint projects in the BRICS countries. Sergey Katyrin, the President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation, will moderate the session.

“The paramount task for BRICS is to continue strengthening efforts aimed at solving international issues in the spirit of unity, mutual understanding and trust. The prospects for cooperation and joint efforts of the BRICS member states will be discussed at the SPIEF 2018. I am confident that this will give momentum to further development of a fruitful dialogue on key world issues,” Kobyakov says.

Over the past few years, Russian authorities have made relentless efforts toward raising Russia’s political influence and economic cooperation in some African countries. Thus, discussions at the forthcoming forum will undoubtedly focus on reviewing the past and the present as well as proposing practical and the most effective ways to facilitate investment activities and that might include promising areas such as infrastructure, energy and many other sectors in Africa.

On her part, Alexandra Arkhangelskaya, a Senior Researcher at the Institute of African Studies and a Senior Lecturer at the Moscow High School of Economics said in an interview with me that Russia and Africa needed each other – “Russia is a vast market not only for African minerals, but for various other goods and products produced by African countries.”

Currently, the signs for Russian-African relations are impressive – declarations of intentions have been made, important bilateral agreements signed – now it remains to be seen how these intentions and agreements will be implemented in practice, she pointed out in the interview.

The revival of Russia-African relations have be enhanced in all fields. Obstacles to the broadening of Russian-Africa relations have be addressed more vigorously. These include, in particular, the lack of knowledge or information in Russia about the situation in Africa, and vice versa, suggested Arkhangelskaya.

“What seems to irk the Russians, in particular, is that very few initiatives go beyond the symbolism, pomp and circumstance of high level opening moves. It is also still not clear how South Africa sees Russia’s willingness (and intention) to step up its role in Africa, especially with China becoming more visible and assertive on the continent,” said Professor Gerrit Olivier from the Department of Political Science, University of Pretoria, in South Africa.

Today, Russian influence in Africa, despite efforts towards resuscitation, remains marginal. Given its global status, Russia has to be more active in Africa, as Western Europe, the European Union, America and China are, but Russia is partially absent and playing a negligible role, according to the views of the retired diplomat who served previously as South African Ambassador to the Russian Federation.

“Russia, of course, is not satisfied with this state of affairs. At present diplomacy dominates its approach: plethora of agreements entered into with South Africa and various other states in Africa, official visits from Moscow proliferate apace, but the outcomes remain hardly discernible,” he said.

“The Kremlin has revived its interest on the African continent and it will be realistic to expect that the spade work it is putting in now will at some stage show more tangible results,” Professor Olivier wrote in an email query from Pretoria, South Africa.

Last June 2017, the African representatives including heads of state, deputy president, ministers or their deputies, entrepreneurs and diplomats came to the St. Petersburg forum from Angola, Algeria, Burundi, Egypt, Gabon, Guinea, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe.

Among the many challenges India faces, the most underappreciated is the ongoing mental health crisis. Mental illness is actually India’s ticking bomb. In his recent address at the 22nd convocation of the National Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences (NIMHANS), President Ram Nath Kovind stated that India has been facing a possible ‘mental health epidemic’. In his address, he said that “The number of affected in India is larger than the entire population of Japan. We need to address this gap and ensure that by 2022 at least those who are suffering from severe mental disorders have been diagnosed and have access to treatment facilities. Let us take it up as a national mission.”

The importance of emotional and mental health in the overall well-being of an individual and its impact on the national economy and growth is being increasingly acknowledged. At present, the mentally-ill account for nearly 6.5 percent of the country’s population and it is estimated that by 2020 this number will increase to a staggering 20 percent. Further, the World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates that nearly 56 million Indians, that is, 4.5 percent of India’s population, suffer from depression. Another thirty-eight million Indians, or three percent of India’s population, suffer from anxiety disorders including panic attacks, phobias, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD).

The pathetic state of mental health care in the country coupled with government’s apathy is a cause of great concern. A plausible reason is the sheer scale of the problem. Hence, nobody wants to discuss the elephant in the room. However, the nation cannot afford to ignore the stark reality. There are only about 43 mental hospitals in the country, and most of them are in disarray. Six states, mainly in the northern and eastern regions with a combined population of 56 million people, do not have a single mental hospital. Most government –run mental hospitals lack essential infrastructure, treatment facilities and have a sickening ambience. Visiting private clinics and sustaining the treatment, which is usually a long, drawn-out affair, is an expensive proposition for most families.

According to a Ministry of Health and Family Welfare report, India faces a treatment gap of 50-70 percent for mental health care. The government data highlights the dismal number of mental healthcare professionals in India; 3,800 psychiatrists and just 898 clinical psychologists. A large number of them are situated in urban areas. The WHO reports that there are only three psychiatrists per million people in India, while in other Commonwealth countries, the ratio is 5.6 psychiatrists for the same. By this estimate, India is short of 66,200 psychiatrists.

Mental health care accounts for 0.16 percent of the total Union Health Budget, which is less than that of Bangladesh, which spends 0.44 percent. A developed nation’s expenditure on the same amounts to an average of 4 percent. India must find better ways to parlay its impressive economic growth into faster progress in this critical area as maintaining an ignorant stance on the issue will not help in its resolve.

The National Mental Health Survey of 2015-16, conducted by the National Institute of Mental Health and Neuro-Sciences (NIMHANS), estimates that 13.7 percent of the Indian population above the age of 18 suffers from mental morbidity, requiring active intervention. It also suggests that one in every 20 Indians suffers from depression and nearly one percent of Indians suffer from high suicidal risks. A survey conducted by the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) in collaboration with WHO across 11 centres in the country, involving 3,000 people from each city found that 95 percent of those with mental-health problems remain deprived of treatment due to stigma, shame and getting shunned from societies. Three age groups are particularly vulnerable to depression: pregnant or post-partum women, the youth and the elderly.

With resources tight an effective method for successfully tackling mental illness is a major expansion of online psychiatric resources such as virtual clinics and web-based psychotherapies. The economic consequences of poor mental health are quite significant.

The cognitive symptoms of depression like difficulties in concentrating, making decisions and remembering cause significant impairment in work function and productivity. A World Economic Forum-Harvard School of Public Health study estimated that the cumulative global impact of mental disorders in terms of lost economic output will amount to $16.3 trillion between 2011 and 2030. In India, mental illness is estimated to cost $1.03 trillion (22 percent of the economic output) during 2012-2030. Estimates suggest that by 2025,38.1m years of healthy life will be lost to mental illness in India (23% increase).

The fact is that poor mental health is just as bad as or maybe even worse than any kind of physical injury. Left untreated, it can lead to debili¬tating, life-altering conditions. Medical science has progressed enough to be able to cure, or at least control, nearly all of the mental-health problems with a combination of drugs, therapy and community support. Individuals can lead fulfilling and productive lives while performing day-to-day activities such as going to school, raising a family and pursuing a career.

Although mental illness is experienced by a significant portion of the population, it is still seen as a taboo. Depression is so deeply stigmatised that people adopt enforced silence and social isolation. In villages, there are dreadful, recorded cases of patients being locked up in homes during the day, being tied to trees or even being flogged to exorcise evil spirits. Stories of extreme barbarity abound in tribal cultures. In some societies, family honour is so paramount that the notion of seeking psychiatric help more regularly is considered to be anathema to them. Recognition and acknowledgement, rather than denial and ignorance are the need of the hour.

Many a time, mental-health problems are either looked down upon or trivialised. These man-made barriers deprive people of their dignity. We need to shift the paradigm of how we view and address mental illness at a systemic level. Tragically, support networks for the mentally ill are woefully inadequate. There is an urgent need for an ambience of empathy, awareness and acceptance of these people so that prejudices dissipate and patients are able to overcome the stigma and shame.

There have been some encouraging innovations in India, led by voluntary organisations that are both impactful and replicable. Dr Vikram Patel, who is a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and co-founder of the Goa-based mental health research non-profit ‘Sangath’, has been at the forefront of community mental health programmes in central India.

It deploys health workers, some with no background in mental health. These workers are trained to raise mental health awareness and provide “psychological first-aid.” Since they are drawn from the same community, they are able to empathise with the patients. The next stage consists of mental health professionals. The programme uses Primary Health Centres for screening people with mental illnesses.

According to Patel, mental-health support workers can be trained at a modest cost. Given the limited availability of mental-health professionals, such first-aid approaches can be suitably and successfully adapted to community needs with limited resources. The senior therapists can be given basic training in general medicine, psychology, psychiatry, psychopharmacology, social work and patient management.

Mental healthcare initiatives are presently focused on a narrow biomedical approach that tends to ignore socio-cultural contexts.Community mental-health services can offer a mix of clinical, psychological and social services to people with severe, moderate and mild mental illnesses. Also, counselling can make a profound difference and build resilience to cope with despair. Providing psychoeducation to the patients’ families can also help.

Unfortunately, in recent decades, academic psychologists have largely forsaken psychoanalysis and made themselves over as biologists. There is need for strengthening the cadre of behavioral health therapists.

With simple yet effective steps, we can turn the situation around and harbour a more accommodating environment for the differently-abled.

The Islamic State’s presence in the southern Damascus suburb of Hajar Al-Aswad is nearing its end, as Syrian troops intensify their assault on terrorist group’s last positions, Al-Masdar News reports.

Backed by heavy airstrikes from the Syrian Arab Air Force (SyAAF), the Syrian Arab Army and their Palestinian allies were able to seize more ground from the Islamic State terrorists on Friday, May 18, giving them control of almost all of the suburb.

According to a military source in Damascus, the Syrian Arab Army and their Palestinian allies control over 90 percent of Hajar Al-Aswad, but less than half of both Al-Tadamon and Yarmouk Camp.

The source added the Islamic State will likely give up their last positions inside Hajar Al-Aswad by the end of the weekend, as they are outnumbered and vulnerable to heavy missile strikes by the Syrian military.

Furthermore, the Islamic State will need all the fighters they can get once the Syrian Army begins their full siege of the Yarmouk Camp in the coming days.