By Gautam Chikermane

For several years now, there has been a volcano of national aspirations waiting to breakdown the putrefying system of global governance and erupt out of control. The quest for peace through the creation of the United Nations (UN) is well past its use-by date. Religious violence has replaced nationalistic wars, the battlefield has shifted to shopping malls, streets and borders from strategic assets, citizens have substituted soldiers in death counts, economic violence has superseded physical violence. The power asymmetry in the hands of five nations through the instrument of a Security Council – China, France, Russia, UK and US – has remained the same even though the underlying economics has moved on. The top five economies in 2017 excluded France and Russia; in 2023, UK will join this list, as India climbs up to the No 5 slot, after Japan and Germany. By 2028, India will rise two slots to the No 3 position, according to projections.

Between the threat of US-China trade wars, an Eastward shift of economic growth, and the international system of governance flailing on every count, from politics in the UN and economics through the multilateral agencies like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, a pressure has been created in the tectonic plates of international relations. Exhausted by this asymmetry, the world is waking up to its own, looking to spill the lava of injustice and inequality and change the international order. The threat of this volcano erupting grows with every abuse of power, from military expression of China in the South China Sea to economic sanctions by the US on Iran. The UN has become an apology, the Security Council a contradiction, and the rest of the world a simmering cauldron of anger.

Seven decades after the creation of the new world order, led by the UN, the Security Council and its self-serving multilateral institutions, we remain the barbarians we were at the close of World War II. Misguided by big ideas, lulled into a slumber of security, we see that in the 21st century only the texture of barbarity has changed to economics and threats; the underlying fangs of consumption, of beggaring the “other”, the rise of a new unilateralism in the form of the an expanded G2 (US and China) in an increasingly multilateral world, of abusing markets and trade agreements, of starving economies through sanctions or threatening them with war, remain the same.

In its latest move, the US has imposed unilateral economic sanctions on Iran. It has pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an agreement signed between China, France, Germany, Russia, UK and US with Iran. The ostensible reason is no longer Iran’s nuclear moves but terrorism,human rights abuses and destabilising activity in the region (most of which fit Iran’s eastern neighbour Pakistan like a glove). China and Russia are already on the other side – China more so because of its oil dependence as the largest export market for Iran’s oil, apart from being a thorn in the US’s economic and power monopoly. As Iran’s second largest export market, India has stated that it believes only in UN-declared sanctions, not those driven by individual nations. Led by Germany and France, the EU is likely to rebel too.

Given the regularity of U-turns in the US’s current administration, this rebellion against the US may be a short-term spike, when US President Donald Trump reverses the sanctions, as he has with North Korea recently. Perhaps, he is testing the last tethers of an ageing global order and retreating with the first stirrings of harmony, using the threats only to deliver a solution that talks often can’t. Countries like India that have decided to weigh in in favour of a globally-ratified sanctions rather than the US-driven ones, cannot take sides. For India, hungry to grow and therefore consume fuels, its energy needs surpass any other reason – Iran is India’s second-largest supplier of oil. Necessary as it may be, this is not a sufficient condition for support. The US remains India’s second-largest trading partner, after China, and one with which India has a favourable balance of trade.

What India is in a good position to do is be the negotiator between the US and Iran. Disruptive and surprising as the idea may sound, this position comes more through a process of elimination than positive choice – Russia is a political untouchable, China an emerging challenger against which trade wars could begin any time now, the EU is on the backfoot through Trump’s threatened withdrawal from the NATO. This leaves India in a somewhat neutral, a somewhat friendly, and a definitely interested party to the crisis. India has the soft goodwill with both nations; what it lacks is the hard power to back any deal. Can Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi grab this opportunity and run with it? Even if he fails to bring results, it would be a venture worth trying.

In the face of a collapsing and increasingly discredited UN-led old global order, it is opportunities like these that could help bring the much-needed balance to international affairs and through it carve out new paths to a more equal, a more respectful, and a more harmonious future. The journey of nations to growth has so far been transacted through the currency of barbarism. A new currency is now needed, a currency of tranquillity, mutualism, peace, a coinage based on plugging into and benefiting from the larger good. India, that straddles a past brutalised by imperialism and a future that needs economic and political peace to articulate itself in the 21st century as the world’s third-largest economy and an influential power, is best placed to create this currency. Settling the US-Iran crisis would be a good start.

This article originally appeared in ISPI.

Portugal has turned a corner. Having gone through a mild boom, a slump, and a severe recession, all packed into less than two decades, the Portuguese economy has re-emerged with a newfound strength. This column examines this recovery in detail, focusing on important structural reforms that have taken place in the last couple of decades in key areas such as skills, investment, export orientation, labour market, financial intermediation, and public finances. The effects of these reforms were compounded by time as well as efforts to reignite demand.

By Mário Centeno and Miguel Castro Coelho*

In the run-up to introduction of the euro in 2002, perceptions about Portugal’s economic prospects and investment risk changed, resulting in a substantial increase in private debt and a mild domestic demand-led boom. The boom gave way, in the 2000s, to a decade of protracted growth, worsening labour market conditions, steady accumulation of external imbalances, and rising debt. Since then, the Global Crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis conspired to push the economy into a severe recession and led the country to embark on an adjustment programme overseen by a troika of creditors.

GDP fell 7.9% from peak to trough, while employment declined 13.4% (Figure 1). Unemployment peaked at 17.5% in 2013 (youth unemployment hit 40%). Fiscal deficits rose to around 10% of GDP (Figure 2). Portuguese sovereign bonds were downgraded to ‘junk’. Nearly 500,000 people emigrated between 2011 and 2014 – the largest emigration the country had experienced in 50 years.

Early signs of recovery in 2014 and 2015 turned out to be feeble and short-lived. Growth would eventually pick up with renewed strength in 2016Q3, and accelerated further to 2.7% in 2017 (Figure 1) on the back of a 9% real increase in investment and 7.9% growth in exports. Employment rose 3.5% in 2017Q4 (year-on-year), while unemployment receded to 7.4% by 2018, its lowest level since 2004, and the labour force resumed an expansionary trend. This is now a sustainable recovery.

Fiscal deficits plunged to 2% of GDP in 2016, and 0.9% in 2017, the lowest in Portugal’s democratic history. In structural terms, this implied a reduction of 1.4 percentage points in two years, above what is envisaged in the Stability and Growth Pact. The stock of public debt fell 4.3 percentage points in 2017, the most significant drop in 20 years, while private sector debt (i.e. for non-financial corporates and households) declined to 163.5% of GDP, down from a peak of 210.3% in 2012.

Against this backdrop, the performance of the Portuguese economy in the last two decades is often framed as a process of steady deterioration of price competitiveness and accumulation of imbalances, culminating in a severe recession and a regenerative adjustment programme (Chen et al. 2012, ESM 2017, IMF 2017, European Commission 2016). According to this view, the adjustment programme set in motion a domestic deflationary process that helped restore external competitiveness and, thus, improve economic performance. These improvements, together with tail winds from a synchronised recovery in the euro area, would go a long way in explaining Portugal’s current macroeconomic performance, including the rebalancing of its public finances.

We argue this view is fundamentally at odds with existing empirical evidence on the fundamentals of the Portuguese economy and how they have evolved over time (e.g. Gouveia and Coelho 2018). In our view, Portugal’s turnaround is not a simple by-product of a purportedly competitiveness-enhancing adjustment programme, let alone of the vagaries of the external macroeconomic environment. There were elements of the adjustment programme that played important roles, but they are not the be-all and end-all of Portugal’s turnaround.

The steady, solid recovery of the Portuguese economy is, in fact, grounded in lasting structural changes in skills, investment, export orientation, and in the labour market, spread across the last two decades. These changes have been supplemented by recent policy initiatives aimed at restoring business and consumer confidence, including measures to repair the Portuguese financial system, policies to support internal demand, and counter-cyclical, rigorous, and prudent management of the public finances. All together, they have made great strides in addressing key structural weaknesses in the Portuguese economy, and have thus helped lay the foundations for a more resilient and prosperous economy.

Two decades of structural changes

Let us look at the main features of the structural changes that have been taking place under the surface.

We start with human capital. While Portugal’s qualification gap vis-à-vis its European partners remains large (the stock of low skilled workers is 26 percentage points above the EU28), it is falling quickly (10 percentage points since 2004) and is largely related to the legacy of older generations with lower educational profiles (Figure 3). Between 2004 and 2016, the share of adults (15–64 years old) with at most lower secondary education decreased 21 percentage points (from 74% to 53%), while both medium- and high-skilled rose around 10 percentage points (from 16% to 26%, and from 11% to 22%, respectively). Assuming the current flow of the low-skilled into the labour force is kept constant (which is a relatively conservative assumption), one would expect the share of the low-skilled to reduce further from 53% to 42% in ten years’ time, and to boost potential GDP by around 7% (Gouveia and Coelho 2018).

Changes in human capital have not been confined to quantity aspects, but have also included quality improvements. Portugal is part of a very small group of countries that have made steady, broad-based progress in the various rounds of the OECD PISA assessments (Figure 4). The results from the latest round (2015) place the country above the OECD average in all areas of assessment (science, reading, and mathematics). These indicators alone portray a society that has been able to cope with structural adjustment in an effective way. This stands in clear contrast to previous periods of structural change, such as that of the 1980s. In 1982 only 2% of private sector salaried workers had a college degree. This figure is now close to 20%. This signals a remarkable increase in skills, and an opportunity that cannot be missed.

Moving on to investment. This was the main driver of labour productivity growth in Portugal in the decade before the crisis (e.g. Corrado et al.2016). Business investment, in particular, was systematically above the EU28 average (about 5 percentage points) throughout the 2000s (Figure 5).

The crisis took its toll on investment, but there are clear signs that it is recovering well. Gross fixed capital formation increased 9% in real terms in 2017. Business investment is growing again above the EU average. A strong pipeline of EU co-funded investment projects for the next four years is expected to provide an additional boost to investment. These are mostly competiveness-enhancing projects, focused on transport infrastructure, urban regeneration, healthcare and education services, and R&D and innovation.

In the wake of the adoption of the euro, abundant capital inflows were channelled to relatively unproductive non-tradable projects, significantly harming economic performance (Dias et al. 2015). Yet, there are clear signs this pattern has reversed in the last decade (Figure 6). The weight of total exports in GDP increased 16 percentage points to 43%¹ from 2005 to 2017 (Figure 7). This increase reflects a structural business restructuring process towards tradable sectors, which began well before the international financial crisis.

Furthermore, it is largely unrelated to changes in price competitiveness. Real effective exchange rates increased from 1995 to around 2005, but remained fairly stable until recent years, when a slight decline became noticeable (Figure 9). This is in stark contrast to the conventional view discussed above.

Figure 6 Employment growth in Portugal, percentage and difference in percentage points

Figure 7 Nominal exports (% GDP)

Figure 8 Real export market share of goods (year-on-year, %)

Figure 9 Real effective exchange rates, export prices deflator (1995=100)

Portugal’s turnaround has also been supported by important changes introduced in employment legislation over the past 15 years. There have been multiple reforms that have targeted the internal flexibility of firms, such as the adjustment in hours worked, unemployment insurance, restrictions on firing, and the ability to sign temporary contracts, making the labour market more flexible and adaptable to shocks. In the 2001–07 period, worker flows in Portugal, including job creation and destruction rates, were remarkably close to those prevailing in the US. The same applies to wage flexibility. The Portuguese labour market has levels of wage flexibility similar to other advanced economies.

More recently, efforts made to stabilise the Portuguese banking system and reform its governance have played a critical role in restoring growth after the crisis. Strengthening the banking system was key to increasing credit flows and to improving the efficiency of capital allocation (Castro et al. 2004, Amador and Nagengast 2015). Those efforts included strengthening banks’ capital bases, changing shareholder structures, clarifying the mechanics for resolution procedures, and helping create appropriate conditions for bank’s operational results to return to positive ground.² In 2017, the Portuguese banking system returned to positive results. Impairments costs and provisions declined sharply. Banks’ capital base improved (the Common Equity Tier 1 ratio stood at 13.9% at the end of 2017, 2.5 percentage points higher than at the end of 2016). The stock of non-performing loans (NPLs) fell from €50 billion in mid-2016 to € 37 billion in 2017. The NPL ratio is now at 13.3%, having dropped 3.9 percentage points from late 2016 and 4.6 percentage points from June 2016.

The crisis produced damaging effects on the public finances, which came on top of problems accumulated in the 2000s. Yet, Portugal has shown great resilience in the way it has committed to and persevered in restoring the balance of the public finances, through reforms designed to deliver structural fiscal consolidation. The current government’s strategy relies on rigorous, prudent management of public expenditure, able to respond flexibly and effectively to changes in the macroeconomic environment. It aims to strike the right balance between the debt-reduction goal and the need to protect growth. To improve public spending efficiency, the government has been conducting an expenditure review designed to help line ministries generate genuine, long-lasting efficiency gains that can work towards containing expenditure, while at the same time ensuring that inevitable demand pressures on public services can still be accommodated effectively within the existing fiscal envelope.

Challenges ahead

Portugal has turned a corner. Having gone through a mild boom, a slump, and a severe recession, all packed in less than two decades, the Portuguese economy has re-emerged with a newfound strength. Important challenges remain. Some are burdensome legacies from the crisis. The stocks of private and public debt are still high. Increased savings, both internal and external are required. Youth unemployment and long-term unemployment have not yet returned to pre-crisis levels. The financial sector still has some way to go on its way to full health. To keep the public finances on a consolidating trajectory, public expenditure will have to continue to be very carefully managed. Crucially, though, Portugal’s ability to rise to these challenges is considerably stronger today than at any time in the last few decades. The current combination of robust economic growth, powered by investment and exports, balanced external accounts, and public finances on a consolidating path, is a far cry from the experience of the late 1990s and 2000s, and bodes well for the performance of the Portuguese economy in incoming years. However, further reforms, demand, and patience are still of the essence.

*About the authors:
Mário Centeno, Portuguese Minister of Finance and President of the Eurogroup

Miguel Castro Coelho, Chief Economist, Portuguese Finance Ministr

References:
Amador, J and A Nagengast (2015), “The effect of bank shocks on firm-level and aggregate investment”, Banco de Portugal, Working Papers 2015 no 15.

Autor, D, D Dorn, L Katz, C Patterson and J Van Reenen (2017), “Concentrating on the fall of the labor share”, American Economic Review 107(5): 180–85.

Baumann, U and F di Mauro (2007), “Globalisation and euro area trade: Interactions and challenges”, ECB Occasional Paper 55.

Bayoumi, R T, J Harmsen and T Turunen (2011), “Euro area export performance and competitiveness”, IMF Working Papers 140.

Blanchard, O and P Portugal (2017), “Boom, slump, sudden stops, recovery, and policy options: Portugal and the euro”, PIIE Working Paper 17-8.

Bricogne, J-C, L Fontagné, G Gaulier, D Taglioni and V Vicard (2012), “Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil”, Journal of International Economics 87(1): 134–146.

Bugamelli, M, S Fabiani, S Federico, A Felettigh, C Giordano and A Linarello (2018), “Back on track? A macro-micro narrative of Italian exports”, Bank of Italy Questioni di Economia e Finanza (occasional papers) 399.

Castro, R, G Clementi and G MacDonald (2004), “Investor protection, optimal incentives, and economic growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(3): 1131–1175.

Chen, R, G Milesi-Ferretti and T Tressel (2012), “External imbalances in the euro area”, IMF working Paper WP/12/236.

Corrado, C, J Haskel, J–L Cecilia and I Massimiliano (2016), “Intangible investment in the EU and US before and since the Great Recession and its contribution to productivity growth”, EIB Working Paper 2016/08.

Di Mauro, F and K Forster (2008), “Globalisation and the competitiveness of the euro area”, ECB Occasional Paper 97.

Dias, D, C R Marques and C Richmond (2015), “Misallocation and productivity in the lead up to the Eurozone crisis”, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Papers 1146.

EC (2016), “Ex post evaluation of the economic adjustment programme – Portugal, 2011–2016”, European Commission Institutional Paper 040.

ESM (2017), “EFSF/ESM Financial Assistance – Evaluation Report”, European Stability Mechanism.

Gouveia, A and M C Coelho (2018), “The Portuguese economy: Short essays on structural changes”, Gabinete de Planeamento, Estratégia, Avaliação e Relações Internacionais, Ministry of Finance, Portugal.

IMF (2017), “Portugal – Fifth post-program monitoring staff report”, International Monetary Fund, European Department.

Jones, C I (2016), “The facts of economic growth”, Ch 1 in J Taylor and H Uhlig (eds), Handbook of Macroeconomics, 2A, Elsevier.

O’Mahony, M P, C Corrado, J Haskel, M Iommi, C Jona-Lasinio and M Mas (2018), “Advancements in measuring intangibles for European economies”, EURONA 2017(2).

Osterhold, C and A Fontoura Gouveia (2018),“Should we fear the walking dead? The role of zombie firms”, GPEARI Working Paper, January.

Reis, R (2013), “The Portuguese slump and crash and the euro crisis”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 46: 143-193.

Reis, R (2015), “Looking for a success in the euro crisis adjustment programs: The case of Portugal”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 46(2): 433-458.

Storm, S and C Naastepad (2015), “Crisis and recovery in the German economy: The real lessons”, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 32(1): 11–24.

Endnotes

[1] This increase, which started before the crisis and was amplified by it (European Commission 2016), is more than 5 percentage points above similar increases in the 19 euro area countries. It is composed of a rise of 10 percentage points in goods and of 6 percentage points in services (which doubled their weight).

[2] Examples of initiates targeting banks’ capital base and shareholder structures include the resolution of Banif and integration of its business in Santander in 2015; successful capital raising by BCP (including the acquisition of an important part by the Fosun group) in 2016 and 2017; the acquisition of BPI by La Caixa and reduction of its exposure to Angola in 2017; recapitalisation and a new business plan of CGD in 2017; and the selling process of Novo Banco to Lone Star in 2017. Also, in 2017, the reimbursement profile of the Resolution Fund debt was extended, allowing the banks’ contributions to be spread further in time, thus avoiding large, sudden impacts to the banking system.

An Iranian lawmaker said the Islamic Republic plans to lodge a complaint with relevant international bodies against Boeing after the US airliner unilaterally canceled its deal with Iran and said it will not deliver aircraft to the country in light of new US sanctions.

Such an act (by Boeing) will not undermine our resolve and they cannot harm us in this way,” Taqi Kabiri said on Friday.

He further said that Iran will soon file a complaint against Boeing and would seriously pursue the issue through “international, legal and judicial tribunals.”

The remarks came after a Boeing spokesman said Wednesday, “We have not delivered any aircraft to Iran, and given we no longer have a license to sell to Iran at this time, we will not be delivering any aircraft”.

“We did not factor the Iran orders into our order backlog either.”

The announcement followed US President Donald Trump’s decision last month to pull the United States out of the landmark 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and major powers.

The Iranian lawmaker went on to say that Tehran needs to shift its focus on domestic production, stressing, “(The American) aerospace giant should have given Iran strong guarantees so that they could not easily walk away from their contracts”.

Boeing in December 2016 announced an agreement to sell 80 aircraft valued at $16.6 billion to Iran Air. Boeing also announced a contract in April 2017 to sell Iran Aseman Airlines 30 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft for $3 billion, with purchase rights for another 30 aircraft.

Saudi Arabia said two missiles were fired toward the Kingdom’s territory on Friday.

The ballistic missiles, fired by the Iran-back Houthi militia, were detected by the Saudi air force at 18:45.

One was confirmed to have failed and landed inside Saada Province in Yemeni territory and the other in an unpopulated desert area, the spokesman for the coalition Col. Turki Al-Malki said.

He said the two missiles were heading toward the Saudi city of Najran and were launched in a deliberate way to target civilian population centers.

The spokesman said that such hostile acts by the terrorist Houthis affiliated to Iran proves the continuation of the involvement of the Iranian regime.

By Dr. Manuel Almeida*

The Gulf Cooperation Council’s dispute with Qatar seems to have enough fuel to continue for the foreseeable future. The Qatari authorities recently responded to the commercial boycott imposed by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt by blocking commercial imports from all four countries. And a few days ago Doha made its clearest statement yet in opposition to any strong measures designed to counter Iran’s regional policies.

Since tensions boiled over a year ago, various misconceptions about the nature of the crisis have circulated widely in mainstream and social media. Many of them do not stand up even to the most basic scrutiny, yet they have contributed to the misinformation that has characterized coverage and analysis of this issue. Let us consider a few of the most common claims.

“This is a year-old problem.” In fact, the boycott of Qatar by the four Arab countries is only the latest development in a more serious chapter of a dispute that has been developing on and off for years. Longstanding efforts to resolve the matter discretely through conventional diplomatic channels led to the signing in 2013 of the Riyadh Accord between Qatar and its GCC neighbors. This addressed the very same concerns the four Arab countries continue to raise against Qatar. The deal eventually collapsed and Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE withdrew their ambassadors in response to what they viewed as Qatari non-compliance. The issue was temporarily settled the following year with the signature of a supplementary agreement.

“It is essentially a family feud.” While the old ties of kinship between ruling families in the Gulf might add a sentimental element, and possibly contribute to a lack of pragmatism, the matters at hand extend much further and are at the heart of the key political issues affecting the Middle East today. As with much of the analysis of the region, the view that grudges related to kinship are the main cause is loaded with preconceived notions about the region’s peoples and politics.

“It is a peripheral issue.” The case can easily be made that reaching negotiated solutions to the wars in Syria or Yemen, devising a regional security mechanism that would bring all major powers to the table on a regular basis, and finding common ground for strategies of sustainable development should be top priorities for GCC governments. However, issues such as what is and is not considered an extremist group, the principle of non-interference in the affairs of fellow GCC members, and the need to maintain enough distance from the most radical elements of Iran’s regional policy remain a source of disagreement between Qatar and other GCC members. The absence of a common GCC view on these elementary, yet critical, issues makes it virtually impossible to cooperate on many of the region’s wider problems.

“Doha will cruise through this crisis.” Since the commercial boycott was imposed, Doha has stepped up its diplomatic outreach and made use of its seemingly infinite checkbook to withstand the boycott. In Istanbul, Moscow and Tehran, this crisis is seen as an opportunity to obtain commercial, financial and geostrategic advantages, at a higher price for Doha than would otherwise be the case. Qatar is the world’s wealthiest country per capita and has plenty of leeway to make painful adjustments, but the present situation is painful for all sides and consumes plenty of focus and resources. In particular, Qatar loses plenty of strategic leverage, and there is no great substitute for normal relations with fellow GCC members. In addition, the effect on local businesses, trade flows, cross-country investments and supply chains should not be underestimated. For example, Qatar’s only terrestrial border has become nonoperational.

“It is an attempt to curb tiny Qatar’s independence in foreign policy.” It all depends on what exactly is meant by Qatar’s independence, but there is no need to look further than Oman or Kuwait for examples of independent foreign policies within the GCC that have not elicited the same kind of response from neighboring countries as Qatar’s. Fearing larger neighbors, especially Iraq, Kuwaiti leaders tread carefully so as not to antagonize Tehran, while on key regional matters they remain aligned with fellow members of the GCC. Likewise, Sultan Qaboos of Oman has long maintained an equidistant policy toward Saudi Arabia and Iran. For the countries that denounce Qatar’s regional policies, the issue is the specific nature of Qatari foreign policy — which has been described even by a former diplomat insider as ad hoc and reckless — rather than its independent character.

“The end of the GCC is imminent.” A Qatari withdrawal from the organization certainly would, at first, weaken but by no means necessarily kill the GCC. It could even lead to much needed reforms within the organization. Disagreements on fundamental issues have been the rule rather than the exception since the GCC was created in 1981, during a time of great upheaval in the Gulf against the backdrop of the Iranian revolution and the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war. More importantly, foreign mediation in this crisis will probably be fruitless, and any long-lasting solution needs to be backed by a wider institutional framework to ensure constant and structured dialogue about specific issues. The GCC is the only obvious option and therefore the organization remains as necessary as ever.

• Dr. Manuel Almeida is a political analyst and consultant focusing on the Middle East. He is the former editor of the English online edition of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper and holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics and Political Science.

If Anthony Bourdain had been a religious man, would he have killed himself? Probably not. The celebrity chef was found dead today in his hotel room in Strasbourg, France.

Bourdain was raised by his Catholic father and Jewish mother, though neither of them saw fit to raise him in any religion. In 2011, he said his views on religion were similar to those expressed by Christopher Hitchens, the British atheist. This is why the atheist organization, Freedom From Religion Foundation, was so proud of him.

His death comes at the same time of a study on suicide issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Suicide rates have spiked dramatically in recent years, in nearly every state. Indeed, suicide is now the 10th leading cause of death in the U.S. One of the chief factors contributing to suicide, the study said, is substance abuse. Bourdain was a known substance abuser.

The study, “Vital Signs: Trends in State Suicide Rates—United States, 1999-2016 and Circumstances Contributing to Suicide—27 States, 2015,” has one glaring flaw: it says nothing about religion. The eight authors of the study disaggregate the data on the basis of sex, age, race/ethnicity, and other factors, but not on religion. This is inexcusable: virtually all studies on suicide include the variable of religiosity, or religious practice and commitment.

As I have recounted in my book, The Catholic Advantage: How Health, Happiness, and Heaven Await the Faithful, there is an inverse relationship between religiosity and suicide: those who are regular churchgoers have a much lower rate of suicide than atheists like Bourdain.

May Anthony Bourdain rest in peace. And may the CDC hire more astute scholars.

The wave of Armenian protests that succeeded in ousting Serzh Sargsyan as prime minister in favor of Nikol Pashinyan has now been succeeded by another wave of protest that is calling for the ouster of Garegin II (Karekin II), the catholicos of the Armenian Apostolic Church.

In a Facebook post, Garegin’s press spokesman invited the demonstrators to meet with the church leadership at the Patriarchal residence in Echmiadzin. But that does not appear to have quieted demands that Garegin, who was close to the ancien regime, leave his post, Pavel Skrylnikov reports in today’s Nezavisimaya gazeta (ng.ru/faith/2018-06-08/2_7242_armenia.html).

Instead, having tasted victory in ousting Sargsyan, the Armenian “street” is now targeting the catholicos, “not so much as head of the church as an influential politician” connected with Sargsyan. According to Armenian political analyst Stepan Danilyan, the protesters have a long list of grievances against Garegin.

First of all, he has been too close to the authorities, something almost inevitable in the caesaro-papist traditions of Orthodoxy. Second, he is said to have engaged in massive “illegal business” operations. And third, since assuming office in 1999, Garegin has notoriously not given a single press conference where he would be forced to respond.

Instead, Danilyan continues, “this is a closed and shadowy individual who has no authority. He is mixed up in business ties as is his brother in Moscow,” and that is especially irksome in the current climate in Yerevan. By suggesting a meeting, Garegin is trying to defuse the situation. But it may be too late.

According to Boris Navasardyan, head of the Yerevan Press Club, “among the protesters are both ordinary citizens and religious people who are dissatisfied with the situation in the Armenian Apostolic Church. I share the view that our church hierarchs in recent years were involved in negative phenomena that was part and parcel of the oligarchic regime in Armenia.”

“The participation of priests in the protests is indirectly confined by the Facebook page of the Echmiadzin monastery, Skrylnikov says. That page” expresses regret that some close to the church have been led astray by “personal interests.”

Perhaps more serious, Garegin has alienated many in the independent segments of the Armenian Apostolic church in Cilicia, Constantinople and Jerusalem and in the large and influential Armenian diaspora in many countries. And the hostility to him is spreading to other even more “odious” church leaders as well, Danilyan says.

This attack on Garegin suggests that the Armenian protests are truly growing into a revolutionary movement, one that appears likely to change fundamentally the power relations within Yerevan and also between Yerevan and Moscow, given Garegin’s close ties with Russian businesses.

But there are at least two additional reasons why this is important beyond the borders of Armenia. On the one hand, the charges against Garegin are of the same nature as those against Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church and will likely be echoed by his religious and political opponents in Russia ever more vigorously now.

And on the other, talk about corruption among patriarchs loyal to their political regimes and to Moscow almost certainly will play into discussions about autocephaly for the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, undermining the position of those in Moscow and elsewhere opposed to that move and giving Kyiv an even better chance of achieving it

The nomination of Michael Pack to be the chief executive of the Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG) has alarmed the US mainstream media, who see him as an ally of President Donald Trump and his former aide Steve Bannon.

Trump’s intent to nominate Pack was announced in a June 1 statement by the White House, but it did not get onto the media radar until almost a week later. On Friday, CNN reported that “several sources within the BBG” have expressed concern to the network about Pack’s nomination, and several staffers said they intended to quit if he is confirmed.

The BBG outlets include Voice of America, Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, the Cuba-oriented Radio and Television Martí, Radio Free Asia, and the Middle East-focused Alhurra Television, Radio Sawa and MBN Digital. The agency’s 2018 budget was $637 million.

As CNN did not name its sources, the claim is impossible to verify. However, the network did say that the post has been reserved for “more mainstream news leaders,” such as current NBC chief Andy Lack, who quit in 2015 after just six weeks on the job, or the current CEO, John Lansing, formerly of Scripps Networks.

Pack does have a background in television programming; he served in multiple capacities at the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (which oversees NPR and PBS) and as a member of the National Council on the Humanities, according to his biography posted on BBG Watch.

What Pack’s media critics find alarming, however, is his work as president and CEO of the Claremont Institute in California, and as head of the documentary film company Manifold Productions. At Manifold, Pack produced two documentary films for Breitbart executive Steve Bannon, who later led Donald Trump’s campaign to victory in the final stretch of the 2016 presidential election. In September 2016, the Claremont Review of Books published an essay titled the ‘Flight 93 election,’ written pseudonymously by future Trump national security staffer Michael Anton.

Neither Bannon nor Anton are at the White House anymore, however. Bannon was dismissed in August 2017, after John Kelly became the new White House chief of staff. Trump disavowed him in January, saying Bannon had “lost his mind” and had “nothing to do with me or my Presidency.” Bannon resigned from Breitbart within days. Anton departed the administration in April, after John Bolton replaced H.R. McMaster as Trump’s national security adviser.

The fear by CNN and other outlets, such as the Guardian, is that Pack would turn the BBG outlets into a “megaphone for Trump.” This has been made possible by reforms enacted in the last weeks of the Obama administration, that replaced the bipartisan BBG board with an advisory panel elected by the president, in the name of efficiency.

PRIME MINISTER TRUDEAU: What a pleasure it is to welcome President Trump to Charlevoix. An opportunity for us to talk about a broad range of issues. Obviously, trade has been a topic of discussion and will continue to be, but our engagement towards the world, how we’re working together to create good jobs for folks on both sides of the border and around.

We both got elected on a commitment to grow the middle class and help those working hard to join it. And that’s exactly the kinds of things that we’re going to stay focused on.

And it’s a pleasure to have you here, Donald.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, Justin, it’s been really great. And I appreciate — you know, Justin has agreed to cut all tariffs — (laughter) — and all trade barriers between Canada and the United States. So I’m very happy about that.

PRIME MINISTER TRUDEAU: So I’d say NAFTA is in good shape. (Laughter.)

PRESIDENT TRUMP: But we are actually working on it. We are actually working on it.

But our relationship is very good. We are actually working on cutting tariffs and making it all very fair for both countries. And we’ve made a lot of progress today. We’ll see how it all works out. But we’ve made a lot of progress.

It could be that NAFTA will be a different form. It could be with Canada, with Mexico — one-on-one. A much simpler agreement. Much easier to do. I think better for both countries. But we’re talking about that, among other things.

But the relationship is probably better — as good or better than it’s ever been. And I think we’ll get to something very beneficial to Canada and to the United States.

PRIME MINISTER TRUDEAU: Excellent.

Q (Inaudible) Russia?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: We didn’t discuss it. We didn’t cover it.

Q Can you come to an agreement on a joint statement?

PRIME MINISTER TRUDEAU: We’ll see you guys — we’ll see you guys tomorrow.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: I think we’ll have a joint statement.

Q Prime Minister, are you disappointed the President is leaving early?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: No, he’s happy.

By Mike Eckel

(RFE/RL) — U.S. President Donald Trump has called for readmitting Russia into the Group of Seven (G7) leading industrialized nations, a call that puts him directly at odds with some of the United States’ closest allies.

The suggestion from Trump, made on June 8 on the eve of a summit of G7 leaders, was the latest in a string of conciliatory statements by him toward Moscow, a stance that has clashed with many congressional Republicans and Democrats, as well as large parts of the U.S. foreign policy establishment.

Russia was expelled from the group four years ago after annexing Ukraine’s Crimea Peninsula and sparking a war in eastern Ukraine that has killed more than 10,300 people.

Speaking to reporters outside the White House, Trump said Russia deserved to rejoin the group.

“Why are we having a meeting without Russia in the meeting?” he said. “They should let Russia come back in because we should have Russia at the negotiating table.”

The call threatens to further strain what was shaping up to be a tough summit for the G7, whose members have also been clashing with the Trump administration over a looming trade war.

Aside from the United States, the G7 consists of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Britain.

Canada, which is hosting the summit, responded quickly, saying it remains opposed to readmitting Russia.

European Union President Donald Tusk, who was also attending summit, also rejected Trump’s suggestion.

“Let’s leave the G7 as it is…it’s a lucky number at least in our culture,” he said.

In Italy, meanwhile, a spokesman for the new populist government that has signaled a similarly conciliatory approach toward Moscow said Rome agrees with Trump’s call. In Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying that Russia is “focusing its attention on formats other than the Group of Seven.”

Trump, who arrived in Canada around midday, was scheduled to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron later in the day.

In Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying that Russia is “focusing its attention on formats other than the Group of Seven.”

Since before taking office, Trump has repeatedly called for a more conciliatory approach to Moscow, criticizing some of the harder-line policies put in place by his predecessor, Barack Obama.

Those calls, however, have been met with direct and indirect pushback in Congress, as well as by some of his top advisers.

Over his objections, U.S. lawmakers overwhelmingly passed a sweeping sanctions bill last year that imposed tough new punishments on Moscow for its actions in Ukraine, Syria, and other matters.

In the United States, Trump’s comments drew criticism from some fellow Republicans, including Senator John McCain, who slammed Trump for treating Putin with “the deference and esteem that should be reserved for our closest allies.

“Those nations that share our values and have sacrificed alongside us for decades are being treated with contempt,” he said in a statement. “This is the antithesis of so-called ‘principled realism’ and a sure path to diminishing America’s leadership in the world.”

Other Republicans chiming in included John Kasich, the Ohio governor who challenged Trump in the 2016 election and has signaled he may do so again in 2020.

“Russia was kicked out of the G8 because of its invasion and annexation of Crimea,” he said.

Trump’s call also comes amid the continuing criminal and congressional investigations into what the U.S. intelligence community concluded was a campaign by Moscow to use propaganda and hacking to influence the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

Trump has repeatedly attacked the criminal probe by Special Counsel Robert Mueller, whose investigation has so far indicted 19 people and three companies on various related charges.

Among them are Trump’s first national security adviser, as well as his former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, who was expected in U.S. federal court on June 8 amid allegations that he sought to tamper with witnesses in Mueller’s probe.

Five people have pleaded guilty to date.

By Terri Moon Cronk

While Iraq has liberated all of its territory once captured and held by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, the U.S.-led military campaign against the rogue organization continues in Syria, Defense Secretary James N. Mattis said at a meeting of the defeat-ISIS coalition at NATO headquarters in Brussels Friday.

Mattis attended a conference of the alliance’s defense ministers this week.

“A little over 100 hours ago, our [Syrian] partner forces began the first of several offensives to diminish ISIS’ physical caliphate,” the secretary said. “As operations ultimately draw to a close, we must avoid leaving a vacuum in Syria that can be exploited by the [Syrian President Bashar Assad] regime or its supporters.”

Despite the successes of the last year, the enduring defeat of ISIS is not over, Mattis said, noting that NATO approved a training mission yesterday and called it a step in the right direction. “We look forward to working with the new government of Iraq on this as we assist a key partner in denying our common terrorist enemy any chance to recover,” he said.

“Every battlefield is also a humanitarian field, even after the fighting stops. To ensure a lasting defeat and prevent an ISIS 2.0 requires all elements of our collective national power,” the secretary said. “Initiating and maintaining stabilization activities are essential, as citizens cannot return to normal life in communities cleared of explosives and debris, and those conditions that initially allowed ISIS to take root return.”

While coalition members have contributed generously, short-term shortfalls remain, and continued support on an urgent basis will augment local security in liberated areas, Mattis said.

Foreign-Fighter Detainees

“Each of us also has an urgent responsibility to address the foreign-fighter detainee problem,” he added. “We all must ensure captured terrorists remain off the battlefield and off our streets by taking custody of detainees from our countries or quickly coming up with suitable options.”

The United States faces the same problem and is working diligently to find a way to solve it, Mattis emphasized. “Abrogating this responsibility is not an option, as it plants the seeds for the next round of violence against innocents,” he said.

As the U.S.-led coalition has repeatedly demonstrated, its greatest weapon against the enemy and the coalition’s greatest strength remains unity, he said.

It is critical that the strong spirit of collaboration fostered by the 75-member coalition be preserved as the coalition transitions from combat to stabilization operations, so other locations do not suffer the consequences witnessed in Iraq, Syria, the Philippines and elsewhere, the secretary said.

Guiding Principles

In the guiding principles of the defeat-ISIS coalition, it is noted that “’ISIS remains a serious threat to the stability of the region and to our common security,’” Mattis said, noting that the guiding principles provide a vision for the coalition’s future and reinforce the whole-of-government approach. “Today, we plan to follow these guiding principles with a joint statement highlighting our commitment to coordinate efforts to confront ISIS globally,” he said.

While the coalition is nearing the defeat of ISIS’ so-called physical caliphate in Iraq and Syria, terrorist operations elsewhere have increased, Mattis said, adding he’s seeking insight to further discussions.

“The [United States] remains committed to the conditions-based approach, underpinned by our shared investment in shared security, and the approach is reinforced by, with and through assistance from local partners to help consolidate our hard-earned military gains,” the secretary said. “Groups like ISIS cannot be allowed to exist. Today’s meeting provides an opportunity to recommit ourselves to this mission.”

June 5, 2018 marks the 51st anniversary of the Israeli Occupation of East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza.

But, unlike the massive popular mobilization that preceded the anniversary of the Nakba – the catastrophic destruction of Palestine in 1948 – on May 15, the anniversary of the Occupation is hardly generating equal mobilization.

The unsurprising death of the ‘peace process’ and the inevitable demise of the ‘two-state solution’ has shifted the focus from ending the Occupation per se, to the larger and more encompassing problem of Israel’s colonialism throughout Palestine.

The grassroot mobilization in Gaza and the West Bank, and among Palestinian Bedouin communities in the Naqab Desert are, once more, widening the Palestinian people’s sense of national aspirations. Thanks to the limited vision of the Palestinian leadership, those aspirations have, for decades, been confined to Gaza and West Bank.

In some sense, the ‘Israeli Occupation’ is no longer an occupation as per international standards and definitions. It is merely a phase of Zionist colonization of historic Palestine, a process that began over a 100 years ago, and carries on to this date.

“The law of occupation is primarily motivated by humanitarian consideration; it is solely the facts on the ground that determine its application,” states the International Committee of the Red Cross website.

It is for practical purposes that we often utilize the term ‘occupation’ with reference to Israel’s colonization of Palestinian land, occupied after June 5, 1967. The term allows for the constant emphasis on humanitarian rules that are meant to govern Israel’s behavior as the Occupying Power.

However, Israel has already, and repeatedly, violated most conditions of what constitute an ‘Occupation’ from an international law perspective, as articulated in the 1907 Hague Regulations (articles 42-56) and the 1949 Fourth Geneva Convention.

According to these definitions, an ‘Occupation’ is a provisional phase, a temporary situation that is meant to end with the implementation of international law regarding that particular situation.

‘Military occupation’ is not the sovereignty of the Occupier over the Occupied; it cannot include transfer of citizens from the territories of the Occupying Power to Occupied land; it cannot include ethnic cleansing; destruction of properties; collective punishment and annexation.

It is often argued that Israel is an Occupier that has violated the rules of Occupation as stated in international law.

This would have been the case a year, two or five years after the original Occupation had taken place, but not 51 years later. Since then, the Occupation has turned into long-term colonization.

An obvious proof is Israel’s annexation of Occupied land, including the Syrian Golan Heights and Palestinian East Jerusalem in 1981. That decision had no regard for international law, humanitarian or any other.

Israeli politicians have, for years, openly debated the annexation of the West Bank, especially areas that are populated with illegal Jewish settlements, which are built contrary to international law.

Those hundreds of settlements that Israel has been building in the West Bank and East Jerusalem are not meant as temporary structures.

Dividing the West Bank into three zones, areas A, B and C, each governed according to different political diktats and military roles, have little precedent in international law.

Israel argues that, contrary to international law, it is no longer an Occupying Power in Gaza; however, an Israel land, maritime and aerial siege has been imposed on the Strip for over 11 years. With successive Israeli wars that have killed thousands, to a hermetic blockade that has pushed the Palestinian population to the brink of starvation, Gaza subsists in isolation.

Gaza is an ‘Occupied Territory’ by name only, without any of the humanitarian rules applied. In the last 10 weeks alone, over 120 unarmed protesters, journalists and medics were killed and 13,000 wounded, yet the international community and law remain inept, unable to face or challenge Israeli leaders or to overpower equally cold-hearted American vetoes.

The Palestinian Occupied Territories have, long ago, crossed the line from being Occupied to being colonized. But there are reasons that we are trapped in old definitions, leading amongst them is American political hegemony over the legal and political discourses pertaining to Palestine.

One of the main political and legal achievements of the Israeli war – which was carried out with full US support – on several Arab countries in June 1967 is the redefining of the legal and political language on Palestine.

Prior to that war, the discussion was mostly dominated by such urgent issues as the ‘Right of Return’ for Palestinian refugees to go back to their homes and properties in historic Palestine.

The June war shifted the balances of power completely, and cemented America’s role as Israel’s main backer on the international stage.

Several UN Security Council resolutions were passed to delegitimize the Israeli Occupation: UNSCR 242, UNSCR 338 and the less talked about but equally significant UNSCR 497.

242 of 1967 demanded “withdrawal of Israel armed forces” from the territories it occupied in the June war. 338, which followed the war of 1973, accentuated and clarified that demand. Resolution 497 of 1981 was a response to Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights. It rendered such a move “null and void and without international and legal affect.”

The same applied to the annexation of Jerusalem as to any colonial constructions or any Israeli attempts aimed at changing the legal status of the West Bank.

But Israel is operating with an entirely different mindset.

Considering that anywhere between 600,000 to 750,000 Israeli Jews now live in the ‘Occupied Territories’, and that the largest settlement of Modi’in Illit houses more than 64,000 Israeli Jews, one has to wonder what form of military occupation blue-print Israel is implementing, anyway?

Israel is a settler colonial project, which began when the Zionist movement aspired to build an exclusive homeland for Jews in Palestine, at the expense of the native inhabitants of that land in the late 19th century.

Nothing has changed since. Only facades, legal definitions and political discourses. The truth is that Palestinians continue to suffer the consequences of Zionist colonialism and they will continue to carry that burden until that original sin is boldly confronted and justly remedied.

By Harun Maruf and Jeff Seldin

One U.S. special operations soldier was killed and four were wounded when al-Qaida-linked militants attacked an outpost still under construction Friday in southwestern Somalia.

The attack, about 50 kilometers north of the port city of Kismayo, came as U.S. forces were helping Somali and Kenyan troops construct the outpost, part of a multiday mission to help clear the area of militants with the al-Shabab terror group, according to U.S. military officials.

Witnesses said the attack took place near the town of Sanguni, where the U.S. and Somali troops were digging trenches and setting up other defenses.

They said the militants first set off a series of explosions before targeting the U.S. and Somali forces with heavy gunfire and mortar rounds.

A helicopter was brought in to evacuate the wounded.

The U.S. said a Somali soldier was among the wounded, though witnesses said two Somali soldiers were killed.

Al-Shabab quickly claimed responsibility for the attack on Telegram via its Shahada News Agency.

“Shabab al-Mujahedeen Movement fighters mounted a fierce attack in a military base of American and Somali forces,” the report said, according to a translation by the SITE Intelligence Group.

The death of the U.S. soldier in Somalia was the second in the last two years.

Last May, a U.S. Navy SEAL was killed near the village of Dar es Salam in Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region, the first U.S. casualty in the country since 1993’s Black Hawk Down incident.

Al-Shabab has increased the pace of its attacks in recent weeks, coinciding with start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, including two attacks, in Wajid and El-Wak, on Thursday.

In El-Wak, near the border with Kenya, the militants raided a local health center for medicine and other supplies.

Earlier this month, al-Shabab claimed it blew up a U.S. military vehicle and also downed a U.S. surveillance drone near Bosaso in the country’s northeast.

Friday’s attack on the U.S.-Somali force north of Kismayo came as U.S. military officials have been considering plans to cut the number of U.S. special operations forces deployed to Africa.

The plan, first reported by The New York Times, would reduce the number of special operations forces from 1,200 to 700 over the next three years.

But U.S. military officials said this week that no decision had been made.

“There has been no direction at this time to adjust force size in AFRICOM [U.S. Africa Command],” said Pentagon spokeswoman Major Sheryll Klinkel.

Still, the U.S. has made several changes in the way its forces have been operating in Africa, the result of an investigation into an October 2017 ambush of U.S. special operations forces in Niger that left four Americans and four Nigeriens dead.

The report found that not only was the Niger mission plagued by problems up and down the chain of command but that the U.S. and Nigerien forces were also done in by an unexpected and unprecedented show of force by militants aligned with the Islamic State terror group.

Military officials said that as a result, they ordered U.S. forces in Africa to try to avoid any missions likely to involve direct combat.

And at least in Niger, U.S. Africa Command’s General Thomas Waldhauser said commanders had been ordered to be “far more prudent” about the missions that were approved.

That prudence included steps to make sure that U.S. forces in Niger had access to more armored vehicles, additional firepower, and more drones for surveillance and reconnaissance.

Whether U.S. forces in other parts of Africa have been asked to take similar precautions is not clear.

A statement from U.S. Africa Command indicated the U.S., Kenyan and Somali forces attacked Friday had planned for the mission carefully.

“The population in the region had historically supported the government, and other Somali forces had prepared for this mission by coordinating heavily with and securing the support of local authorities ahead of time,” the statement said.

By Ismira Lutfia Tisnadibrata

Indonesia will deploy soldiers to hunt down pro-Islamic State militants for the first time in a joint ground patrol with Malaysia and the Philippines, Defense Minister Ryamizard Ryacudu said Friday.

Ryamizard first divulged the joint ground patrol aimed at curbing the spread of IS in the region during a speech last weekend at the Shangri-La Dialogue, a meeting in Singapore attended by Southeast Asian and other world leaders.

He said the three neighboring nations had already established trilateral air and maritime patrols in the Sulu Sea but would step up and elevate their cooperation through the joint operation of land forces on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao “two months from now.”

“The aim of this joint operation is to locate ISIS in the southern Philippines and stop it from spreading,” he said, using the other acronym for IS.

On Friday, Ryamizard confirmed that the expansion of the existing trilateral patrol mechanism would take place. He said Malaysia and the Philippines had agreed.

“I planned it. The implementation is after Eid,” he told reporters after a ceremony at the Defense Ministry in Jakarta.

At a bilateral meeting with his Malaysian counterpart Mohamad Sabu on June 9 in Singapore, Ryamizard said the training exercise “at a company level” would focus on “anti-guerrilla warfare, urban warfare and how to tackle snipers.”

A company is a military unit that usually consists of 80 to 150 soldiers and often commanded by a major or a captain.

Ryamizard told Mohamad that the militants in southern Philippines were skilled marksmen and it was necessary for the three countries to equip their forces with better rifles.

The three nations began trilateral patrols in June last year after pro-IS militants launched a siege in the southern Philippine city of Marawi. Five months of vicious fighting ended in October and killed at least 1,200 people, mostly militants, including the acknowledged Philippine IS leader Isnilon Hapilon.

The Marawi fighting emboldened other Southeast Asian terror cells aligned with the Syria- and Iraq-based IS, according to analysts.

Among the 31,500 foreign fighters who had joined IS in Syria, about 800 came from Asia, including 400 from Indonesia, the largest Muslim-majority country, Ryamizard said on June 2, citing intelligence data from his government.

Ryamizard talked about the joint plans to curb the spread of IS in the southern Philippines as his own country grappled with a string of terror attack in recent weeks, including bombings that targeted three churches and killed 51 people, including 13 civilians, seven police and 31 suspects.

Indonesia, a nation of 262 million people, faces a resurgence of extremist attacks as security analysts warned that dozens of its citizens would return home after fighting for IS in the Middle East.

“Maritime patrols have been already implemented, the air patrols too, even though mostly through drones, but it is the same. But not the land patrols yet, even though the combined land forces exercise is very important,” Ryamizard said.

Malaysia’s Sabah state is a short boat ride from islands in the Philippines’ Mindanao region, where pro-IS Muslim guerrillas and other armed Muslim groups operate. The waters between the two countries are extremely porous and analysts said the three nations shared coastal borders that have long been used for smuggling routes.

To involve elite forces

Indonesia’s Defense Ministry spokesman, Brig. Gen. Totok Sugiharto, told BenarNews that the exercise would involve the three forces from the Indonesian National Army (TNI).

“This is also a continuation of the collaboration of the intelligence sharing strategy ‘Our Eyes’ which was launched earlier,” he said, referring to sub-regional cooperation with Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand launched earlier this year in Bali, Indonesia.

Khairul Fahmi, a military observer from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told BenarNews the joint ground patrol exercises are as the three neighbors face militant groups with similar characteristics.

“There is a need to increase and standardize ability to paralyze these groups,” he said.

The Way of the Cross at a pilgrimage site in China’s Henan province has been forcibly demolished by authorities in the latest clampdown on religious freedom.

Local government officials removed images of Jesus at the well-known Our Lady of Mount Carmel pilgrimage site in Tianjiajing village of Anyang Diocese at 8 p.m. on June 5.

A source said authorities sent personnel one month ago to tell Bishop Joseph Zhang Yinlin of Anyang that the Way of the Cross must be dismantled, but no specific reason was given.

“Excavators and pickup trucks were driven to the site at night because authorities feared there would be too many church members in the daytime,” he said.

Nuns living nearby took photographs and videos of the demolition and sent the evidence to chat groups.

A religious source said the Communist Party’s policy appeared to be to “allow Catholicism to exist but not develop.”

The sanctuary of Our Lady of Mount Carmel is the only pilgrimage site in Henan province. It was ordered to be built by Pontifical Institute for Foreign Missions priest Stefano Scarsella, then apostolic vicar to northern Henan, in 1903-05 to thank the Virgin Mary for preserving local missionaries from the dangers of Boxer persecution in 1900.

It became a popular pilgrimage site for people from Henan, Hebei and Shanxi provinces, with the main celebration taking place on July 16 each year.

It is said that on July 16, 1986, almost 10,000 pilgrims from the three provinces visited there with bands and drum teams.

In 1987, the local government sent troops and armored vehicles to the site after estimating there would be 50,000 pilgrims, the source said.

In the same year, the pilgrimage site was designated as illegal by Henan’s government. Since then, the government has controlled the number of people and vehicles. No more than 300 pilgrims were allowed.

Since a cross at a Protestant church was dismantled in Henan last September, the Catholic Church has been the target of increasing oppression in the province.

In February, towns and villages in Henan received a circular banning the posting of religious couplets. Crosses at a Catholic church were later demolished and church-run kindergartens were seized and forced to close permanently.

In April, Beijing’s crackdown intensified as eight dioceses out of 10 in Henan province — Anyang, Luoyang, Xinxiang, Puyang, Zhengzhou, Shangqiu, Kaifeng and Zhumadian — were suppressed.

Both open and underground church communities were targeted. A Catholic church and a bishop’s tomb were demolished; underground priests were driven out of their parishes; church asserts were confiscated; and authorities stationed officials at churches every Sunday to prevent minors entering.

Although official statistics are not available, the Christian population in Henan province is believed to be the second highest in the country after Zhejiang province.

In 2009, Henan had about 2.4 million Christians, of whom 300,000 were Catholics. By the end of 2011, there were 2,525 Christian churches and 4,002 Christian premises in the province.

South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa says South Africa will use its membership of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to advance the interests of Africa, particularly the priorities of the African Union Agenda 2063.

South Africa’s tenure will be guided by the commitment to resolve regional, global and international conflicts and promote inclusive growth as part of the effort to ensure a better Africa in a better world.

“We are committed to addressing the root causes of conflict, including inequality and underdevelopment, and promoting inclusive political dialogue.

“South Africa remains deeply concerned about the emergence of unilateralism and its attendant threat to the international rules-based system. South Africa reaffirms the centrality of the United Nations Charter and the primacy of the United Nations Security Council on issues of international peace and security,” said the President.

Earlier on Friday, the United Nations General Assembly elected South Africa to serve in the UNSC for the term 2019-2020 as a non-permanent member. This will be the third time that South Africa will be serving in the Security Council since the dawn of democracy in 1994.

“We are humbled and honoured by the confidence the international community has demonstrated in our capability to contribute to the resolution of global challenges.

“We express our unreserved gratitude and appreciation to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) that nominated us and our continental body, the African Union (AU), that endorsed our candidature,” said President Ramaphosa in a statement.

International Relations and Cooperation Minister Lindiwe Sisulu, who was in New York for the election, said South Africa’s tenure in the Security Council will be dedicated to the legacy of President Nelson Mandela and his commitment to peace.

Making remarks following the election, she said South Africa will use its tenure in the Security Council to promote the maintenance of international peace and security through advocating for the peaceful settlement of disputes and inclusive dialogue.

“We will continue to enhance close cooperation between the UN Security Council and other regional and sub-regional organisations.

“During our two previous tenures, we advocated for closer cooperation between the UN Security Council and the African Union Security Council (AUPC), which culminated in the adoption of the landmark Resolution in 2012 on strengthening cooperation between these two bodies,” said the Minister.

South Africa’s diplomatic efforts over the past two decades include conflict resolution, prevention, mediation, peacekeeping and peacebuilding.

Sisulu said she firmly believe that “while we must strengthen the tools at the Security Council’s disposal in addressing conflicts as they arise, the focus should be on preventative diplomacy and on addressing the root causes of conflicts”.

“We believe that peace cannot be achieved without the participation of women in peace negotiations, peacekeeping operations, post-conflict peace-building and governance. During our tenure, we will ensure that a gender perspective is mainstreamed into all Security Council resolutions in line with UNSC Resolution 1325 (2000) on Women, Peace and Security.”

South Africa looks forward to collaborating with the members of the Security Council in promoting the maintenance of international peace and security and the social well-being and advancement of all the peoples of the world.

Sisulu said energies have to be directed to ensuring the betterment of the lives of people.

“We are guided by the Resolution of the AU to ‘Silence the Guns’ by 2020. Only when we have peace and a culture of peace, can we have sustainable development and we in Africa need that and resources most.”

A new Portland State University study shows that not all populations of a single, widely spread tree species respond the same to climate change, something scientists will need to consider when making climate change projections.

The study, published online recently in the Journal of Biogeography, examined growth rings from the world’s southernmost conifer tree species, Pilgerodendron uviferum, to see if its growth rate responded differently to climate change over time and depending on its location in northern, central or southern Patagonia.

The study, led by PSU geography professor Andrés Holz, found that during the first half of the 20th century, the climate-growth relationships were relatively similar between the southern (poleward) and northern (equatorward) range edges, but diverged after the 1950s when warming in southern South America increased.

In the northern and southern edges, where it can be relatively dry during the spring and summer months, wetter-than-average conditions resulted in increased tree growth. However, in central Patagonia, the region that gets the most rain, growth was mostly dependent on drier and sunnier conditions.

But in the 1950s, warmer conditions globally as well as an upward trend in the climate phenomena known as the Antarctic Oscillation, or Southern Annular Mode, shifted storm tracks poleward resulting in a decline in precipitation in northern Patagonia and an increase in precipitation in central and southern Patagonia. As a result, trees in southern Patagonia reversed trend and now their growth is favored by drier, sunnier conditions.

“We found that not only can we see different populations of a widely distributed species respond differently to natural climate variability in a given region, but also over time within each of these regions and because climate variability is amplified by climate change, their tree growth responses to climate can change from a bit to a lot,” said Holz, who also serves as a faculty fellow in PSU’s Institute for Sustainable Solutions.

Holz said the findings suggest that when trying to simulate how different species and ecosystems are going to respond to climate change in the next 10, 50 or 100 years, a single parameter per species, and even per population, cannot be used to represent an entire species’ growth.

“We show that that would not work because they respond differently over time and space,” Holz said.

A study has uncovered the secret to why endangered whale sharks gather on mass at just a handful of locations around the world.

The new insights into the habits of the world’s largest fish will help inform conservation efforts for this mysterious species, say the researchers.

Large groups of whale sharks congregate at only around 20 locations off the coasts of countries including Australia, Belize, the Maldives and Mexico. Why the sharks, which can reach more than 60 feet in length, choose these specific locations has long perplexed researchers and conservationists.

The new study, by researchers at the University of York in collaboration with the Maldives Whale Shark Research Programme (MWSRP), has found that the shark “aggregation sites” show many common characteristics – they are all in areas of warm, shallow water in close proximity to a sharp sea-floor drop off into deep water.

The researchers suggest that these sites provide the ideal setting for the filter-feeding sharks to search for food in both deep water and the warm shallows, where they can bask near the surface and warm up their huge bodies.

Supervising author of the study, Dr Bryce Stewart from the Environment Department at the University of York, said: “Sharks are ectotherms, which means they depend on external sources of body heat. Because they may dive down to feed at depths of more than 1,900 metres, where the water temperature can be as cold as 4 degrees, they need somewhere close by to rest and get their body temperature back up.

“Steep slopes in the sea bed also cause an upwelling of sea currents that stimulate plankton and small crustaceans such as krill that the whale sharks feed on.”

However, these perfectly contoured locations are not without their drawbacks due to human activity. Sharks swimming in shallow waters close to the surface are vulnerable to boat strikes caused by vessels ranging from large ships to tourist boats hoping to spot them.

Lead author of the paper Joshua Copping, who carried out the research while studying for a masters in Marine Environmental Management at the University of York, and is now working on a PhD at the University of Salford, said: “Individual whale sharks can be identified by their unique pattern of spots and stripes which allows researchers to follow specific sharks that visit these aggregation sites. That means we have a good idea of the rate and extent of injuries at each of these locations and sadly it’s generally quite high.”

Boat strikes, along with accidental trapping in fishing nets, and the targeted hunting of the species for their fins and meat, have contributed to an alarming decrease in global whale shark numbers in the past 75 years.

By highlighting what makes these areas important to the whale shark, the researchers hope this study will also highlight the importance of managing these areas carefully in order to minimise human impact on the shark’s habitat and behaviour.

Dr Stewart added: “The more we know about the biology of whale sharks the more we can protect them and this research may help us to predict where whale sharks might move to as our climate changes.

“Not only do we have an ethical responsibility to conserve this miraculous animal for future generations, but they are also extremely valuable to local people on the coastlines where they gather, which are often in developing countries. While a whale shark can be worth as much as $250,000 USD dead, alive it can provide more than $2 Million USD over the course of its life span.”

Co-author James Hancock from MWSRP added; “Whale sharks can travel huge distances around the globe and the existence of such a small number of known aggregation sites suggested there had to be something about the depth and shape of the underwater terrain in these areas that makes them appealing.

“It’s very exciting to have narrowed down some of the key reasons why whale sharks choose these specific areas. However, the main focus of this research was on costal aggregations which are largely made up of young sharks – exactly where the rest of the demographic hang out is still unclear.”

The first African fossils of Devonian tetrapods (four-legged vertebrates) show these pioneers of land living within the Antarctic circle, 360 million years ago.

The evolution of tetrapods from fishes during the Devonian period was a key event in our distant ancestry. New-found fossils from the latest Devonian Waterloo Farm locality near Grahamstown in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, published today in Science, force a major reassessment of this event. “Whereas all previously found Devonian tetrapods came from localities which were in tropical regions during the Devonian, these specimens lived within the Antarctic circle,” explains lead author, Dr Robert Gess of the Albany Museum in Grahamstown, and co-author Professor Per Ahlberg of Uppsala University in Sweden. The research was supported by the South African DST-NRF Centre of Excellence in Palaeosciences, based at the University of the Witwatersrand and the Millennium Trust.

The first African Devonian tetrapods

Two new species, named Tutusius and Umzantsia, are Africa’s earliest known four-legged vertebrates by a remarkable 70 million years. The approximately metre-long Tutusius umlambo (named in honour of Archbishop Emeritus Desmond Tutu) and the somewhat smaller Umzantsia amazana are both incomplete. Tutusius is represented by a single bone from the shoulder girdle, whereas Umzantsia is known from a greater number of bones, but they both appear similar to previously known Devonian tetrapods. Alive, they would have resembled a cross between a crocodile and a fish, with a crocodile-like head, stubby legs, and a tail with a fish-like fin.

The Waterloo Farm locality (where the tetrapods were discovered) is a roadcut first revealed in 2016 after controlled rock-cutting explosions by the South African National Roads Agency (SANRAL) along the N2 highway between Grahamstown and the Fish River. This cutting exposed dark grey mudstones of the Witpoort Formation that represent an ancient environment of a brackish, tidal river estuary that contain abundant fossils of animals and plants.

The first tetrapod found outside of tropical regions

The real importance of Tutusius and Umzantsia lies in where they were found.

Devonian tetrapod fossils are found in widely scattered localities. However, if the continents are mapped back to their Devonian positions, it emerges that all previous finds are from rocks deposited in the palaeotropics – between 30 degrees north and south of the equator. Almost all come from Laurussia, a supercontinent that later fragmented into North America, Greenland and Europe.

The much larger southern supercontinent, Gondwana, which incorporated present-day Africa, South America, Australia, Antarctica, and India, has hitherto yielded almost no Devonian tetrapods, with only an isolated jaw (named Metaxygnathus) and footprints, being found in eastern Australia. Because Australia was the northernmost part of Gondwana, extending into the tropics, an assumption developed that tetrapods evolved in the tropics, most likely in Laurussia. By extension it was assumed that movement of vertebrates from water onto land (terrestrialisation) also occurred in the tropics. Attempts to understand the causes of these major macroevolutionary steps therefore focussed on conditions prevalent in tropical water bodies.

The Waterloo Farm tetrapods not only come from Gondwana, but from its southernmost part: reconstructed to have been more than 70 degrees south, within the Antarctic circle. Abundant plant fossils show that forests grew nearby, so it wasn’t frozen, but it was definitely not tropical and during winter it will have experienced months of complete darkness. This finding changes our understanding of the distribution of Devonian tetrapods. We now know that tetrapods occurred throughout the world by the Late Devonian and that their evolution and terrestrialisation could realistically have occurred anywhere.

South Africa now adds insights into the emergence of land animals to its incredible fossil record, which also includes transition to mammals from reptile-like ancestors and the evolution of humans. There is probably not another country on the planet that so fully documents the long and dramatic evolutionary history of our own lineage.

New research has shown that the rapid decline in insulin production that causes type 1 diabetes continues to fall over seven years and then stabilises.

A team at the University of Exeter Medical School found evidence that the amount of insulin produced declines by almost 50% each year for seven years. At that point, the insulin levels stabilise.

The finding is a major step forward in understanding Type 1 diabetes and contradicts previous beliefs that the insulin produced by people with the condition drops relentlessly with time. It offers the hope that by understanding what changes after seven years, new strategies could be developed to preserve insulin secreting beta-cells in patients.

The study, published in Diabetes Care, measured C-peptide, which is produced at the same time and in the same quantities as the insulin that regulates our blood sugar. By measuring C-peptide levels in blood or in urine, scientists can tell how much insulin a person is producing themselves, even if they are taking insulin injections as treatment. The team studied 1,549 people with Type 1 diabetes from Exeter, England and Tayside, Scotland in the UNITED study.

Dr Beverley Shields, at the University of Exeter Medical School, who led the research, said: “This finding is really exciting. It suggests that a person with Type 1 diabetes will keep any working beta-cells they still have seven years after diagnosis. We are not sure why this is; it may well be that there is a small group of “resilient” beta-cells resistant to immune attack and these are left after all the “susceptible” beta-cells are destroyed. Understanding what is special about these “resilient” beta-cells may open new pathways to treatment for Type 1 diabetes.”

Type 1 diabetes affects around 400,000 people in the UK. The disease commonly starts in childhood but can develop at any age, and causes the body’s own immune system to attack and destroy the insulin-producing cells in the pancreas, leaving the patient dependent on life-long insulin injections.

Professor Andrew Hattersley, a Consultant in Diabetes at the Royal Devon and Exeter Hospital and Research Professor at the University of Exeter Medical School, looked forward. “Now we know there is a “seven year switch”, the next question is why? Has the immune attack stopped or are we left with “super beta-cells” that can resist the immune onslaught. Any insights into halting the relentless destruction of the precious insulin-producing cells are valuable. We could not have made this progress without the help of over 1,500 patients. We owe it to them to try to find answers that might help patient care quickly.”

Karen Addington, UK Chief Executive of the type 1 diabetes charity JDRF, said: “These results provide further evidence that the immune system’s assault on insulin-producing beta cells is not as complete as we once believed – and may change over time. This further opens the door to identifying ways to preserve insulin production in people diagnosed with or living with type 1 diabetes.”