LUKOIL said it has completed the construction and commissioned the third well at the second development stage of the Vladimir Filanovsky field in the Caspian Sea.

This is a bilateral horizontal oil producing well. The length of the main wellbore is 3,795 meters while the lateral is 3,762 meters long. Well’s initial flow rate exceeded 3.2 thousand tonnes of oil per day. The field’s average daily production reached its plateau level post the launch of this well.

In total the construction of eight wells is planned at the field’s second development stage including six producing and two injection wells to maintain the plateau oil production level of 6 million tonnes per year. Earlier this year, one production and one injection well had already been launched.

The construction of wellhead platform currently undergoes at the Astrakhan shipyards as part of the field’s third development stage.

While the role of the US, Russia, KSA, and Iran are vastly discussed when it comes to the convoluted dynamics of Syria, the Turkish factor is not underlined as much as it is required. The involvement of Turkey since the beginning of the crisis has been more consistent than the US position or Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) especially when it comes to opposing Bashar al-Assad. Hence, Ankara’s opposition to Assad will continue to be an impediment in not only achieving a breakthrough of a trilateral alliance of Russia, Iran, and Turkey but for the future of Syria.

Turkey entered the Syrian crisis in 2011. The significant phase of Ankara’s involvement in Syria can be associated with the training of Syrian Army defectors in summer of 2011. These defectors are also linked to the genesis of Free Syrian Army. Later on, Ankara joined the Friends of Syria. Turkey has armed the opposition forces against the Assad regime in the past few years. However, what makes it interesting it how Ankara has over the years moved out of the alliance and appears to be reasserting it as an autonomous actor since last year.

Turkish policy in Syria has three main tiers. One of the most known facets is an antagonism to Assad’s regime. The second one concerns with containment of the Kurds, which are considered one of the most significant internal and external threats. And the third one is to manage the influx of Syrian refugees, which is the largest among other hosting states. This is not to undermine the historical relations with Syria, however, the contemporary policy appears to be revolving around above-mentioned three tiers.

Turkey shares an approximately 822-kilometer border with Syria. These borderlines were drawn under the Sykes-Picot Agreement in 1916. The geographical contiguity makes Ankara vulnerable to not only the internal crisis of Syria, but it provides it with leverage to influence the internal dynamics as well. The operation Euphrates is one of the examples, which played a role in containing the ISIS threat in 2016. The rebel-controlled areas of Azaz and the region near the Euphrates was the main target of the Turkish military. It aimed to rid the region of the ISIS in addition to the Syrian Democratic forces. In other words, the success of this offensive emboldened Ankara to intervene in Syria in 2018.

The Operation Olive Branch was launched in January 2018 in the area of Afrin in order to fight Democratic Union party, which was under the control of Syrian Democratic Forces. This also proves Ankara’s attempts to reassert in not only Syria but to gain leverage in the dynamic of the Middle East region. Likewise, Ankara’s significant role in a Qatar impasse with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Iran is another example of the claim.

The Operation Olive Branch has achieved success in terms of taking the control of the Syrian-Turkish border; however, if it is extended to the other part after the victory of Afrin, especially to Manbij, it can open new fronts in Turkey and pose a problem for the cease-fire efforts in Syria. Even though the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is based in Turkey and the tussle between them and the anti-Kurds movements has been going on for many years, however, for Ankara, the PKK is declared a part of the Syrian based People’s Protection Movement (YPG).

Ankara’s role in the peace talks led by Russia is another factor that has gained significance over the past few months. The last meeting among the three states, Russia, Iran, and Turkey was held in Ankara. It laid stress on working for the stability and constitutional measures of the Syrians. While all three states maintain divergence in many aspects, however, one of the common denominators that bring them closer is their interest in decreasing the role of the US in Syria. Therefore, it may be the only precursor of their cooperation; however, it is potent enough to deepen their alliance in the future.

The increased emphasis on defining the Turkish identity, given the significance of the Turkish election scheduled on June 24, 2018, is likely to determine its policy in Syria. The link of this factor can be understood by taking into account the reaction from Ankara over the Kurdish protest held in Cologne, Germany. The foreign minister of Turkey vehemently opposed it in the official statement. The issue of Syrian refugees is another factor which distinguishes the government candidates from the Turkish opposition. Simply put, if the opposition leader wins the elections, the refugees will probably be forced to go back to Syria, however, if the government win again, it may prove to be a positive sign for the approximately 3.5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey.

*Iqra Mobeen Akram works as a researcher at an Islamabad-based think tank.

The Afghan Mazari cap worn by PTM’s leader Manzoor Pashteen is now known as Pashteen Cap and sold in big numbers on daily basis, the cap is also known as Mazari Cap, which is called BOREK in Uzbiki language. These type of caps and/or hates have been most important symbols of central Asian culture. On one hand the light and embroidered round and partridge caps represents the handicraft arts of central Asian women, while on the other hand, the accustomed to these caps make them even anomalous.

These traditional caps are worn to the new born baby sons, on their circumcision, on victory and success and to a groom on wedding. Saying that, caps are worn on males head in order to welcome him on every new journey of his life. Caps are signs of honor and dignity, many leaders’ caps became symbols of their ideologies. The red oblong hat of Maulana Jalaluddin Balkhi was known as a symbol of love and nonviolence, which later was adopted by Bacha Khan (Khan Abdul Ghafar Khan) as his revolutionary red cap, the Che Guevara’s one star cap is known as the symbol of fight for the right and independence.

Similarly, the 20th century’s Afghan Kings’ cap (Karakol) was also worn by Mohammed Ali Jinah of Pakistan and the cap is called Jinah cap in Pakistan. It’s worth a mention that currently KARAKOL is internationally known as Karzai’s cap. Now, a 26 year young leader from FATA has made the Mazari Cap his revolutionary symbol, Najibullah Azad the former spokesman of the Afghan President in a Facebook post said “Manzoor Pashteen shall not be taken easy and/or considered as a simple young tribal man, but his personality shall be glistened from his cap just like Che Guevara’s cap that became a symbol, thus, this red Mazari cap will soon become a symbol of Pashtun’s protection and their rights”, with the viral of this Facebook post many Afghan young boys including the Kabul Sit-In participators started wearing the red Mazari Cap in solidarity with Manzoor Ahmad Pashteen and the cap got to be known as Pashteen cap, then not only Pashtuns on both sides of the Durand line but also in the west started wearing Pashteen cap, which made the demand in much big numbers than the supply.

In addition to that, before the mass gathering in Peshawar, Kabul market ran out of the Mazari cap and the suppliers had to make orders from Mazar Sharif. In some European countries where the caps were not available the Pashtuns started making the cap with traditional printed cloth that had a similar pattern.

The Pashteen Cap with the three colors red, black and white is the best revolutionary sign. Elaborating on that, the black color represents the black law (FCR) for FATA that has caused numbers of oppressiveness, cruelty, injustice and tyrannies on Pashtuns, red color is the sign of revolution, enthusiasm and luckiness, while the white color is the sign of hope, peace and stability, the white pattern on the upper part of the cap means that every dark changes into a light.

Since these caps are handmade products of women, thus wearing them by millions people not only give them an appreciation but an acknowledgment of women’s present in the movement, their role and particularly the mothers who have lost their sons, crowns of their heads and canopy who might never come back, and those who lost their lives and became the victims of an unknown war. Cap is the best gift in the sense of protecting a head, thus it is a pray and a hope that there is no more capacity and courage in any Pashtun mother, this extraction shall be brought to an end, so mothers could make their sons caps.

However, Afghan youth do not only wear this Mazari cap in solidarity with Pashtun on the other side of the Durand line but telling their brothers that LAR O BAR (Pashtuns on both sides) are one nation, ethnicity, blood and of course one ideology. During USSR invasion the FATA Pashtuns stood by their bothers, now since for the first time in 70 years FATA Pashtuns raised their voice and have stood for their rights, so how would Afghans on this side of Durand line not become Manzoor Pashteen’s voice, how nail could be separated from the flesh? Love is choice-less and unincorporated, it’s just like when a needle sticks in a finger, the finger automatically goes towards the mouth, similarly, Afghan neither need to think before helping their brothers nor ask for one’s permission.

Since after Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Turkey this Afghan cap is getting world-wide popularity especially in Pakistan, conveys the message of peace in the regions, the peace just like a cataract of white pearls that could not be longer a cataract if a single pearl is taken out. Peace in LOY Afghanistan is peace in the region and world. Mazar Sharif (Center of Balkh Province) is a figurative of spring in Afghanistan, thousands of people make it to Mazar to celebrate the spring festival where they also visit Hazrat Ali’s pilgrimage and raise the flag and jubilant the event. Thus, the Pashteen cap is a sign of every coming day’s hope and protection. Anyone wearing Pashteen cap conveys the message that Pashtuns are not terrorist but the real representatives of nonviolence, human rights defender and peace protector.

However, Manzoor Pashteen has been criticized and blamed by the Paki establishment as an Afghan intelligence agency’s spy just because he and his supporters on both sides of the Durand line are wearing the same cap. But, the question arises here why he has being blamed?

When Israeli army attack Palestinian, the entire Muslim community stands against Israel, when Iraq was attacked all Pakistan tried to show off how they care for Iraqis and the same strategy went on for Syria, Pakistanis went on a strike for Rohingyan Muslims, they even protested against an Afghan air strike on Taliban in Kunduz, none of those Pakis were blamed to be spies and agents of such countries, since they manipulate that all Muslims are brothers. But, when it comes to Pashtuns on this side of Durand line in solidarity with Manzoor Pashteen, then Pashteen becomes a spy, they forget that Pashtuns on both sides are not only brothers based on Islamic teachings but they are brothers by blood as well, they forget that when a part of body hurts the entire body gets disturbed. Most importantly, I still remember how Pakistanis went on supporting the Turkish people when they made the so called Turkish Army’s coup against the elected government and kept saying that the democracy won against an army coup. While on the other hand, they keep saying that their army is the only rightful authority fighting for the right in the entire world, which is really disgusting.

Pashtuns on the other side of Durand line faced the severe cruelty and oppressiveness after Pakistan came into exists. Anyone including Pashtuns, Balochis, Sindhis, Bengalis and Muhajirs of Karach are labeled insidious when they raise their voice for their rights. Afghans will keep standing with Manzoor Pashteen since he is our brother, Pashtuns are vexed of this genocide, one day Kabul the other day Peshawar burns, or one day Waziristan bleeds and the day Kandahar. Yet Pashtun is blamed to be a terrorist and to be an insidious.

*Ms. Sarwat Najib is an Afghan writer, columnist, researcher, critic and a poetess.

Experts on regional strategic policy have urged BRICS member countries to step up efforts towards setting up its own credit rating agency as an effective mechanism to consolidate the bloc’s new multifaceted spheres of cooperation. BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) is currently working on a set of new proposals including the establishment of women business club and a rating agency, among others, for the 10th edition of BRICS Summit scheduled to take place from 25-27 July, 2018, in Johannesburg, South Africa.

As far back in 2015, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India called upon members of BRICS to begin the BRICS credit rating agency. India has long held the view that a new rating agency would provide an immense contribution to the existing knowledge of rating systems. Since then, there have been discussions at several conferences and forums, the latest was during the special panel session on the future prospects of BRICS at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum late May.

“As a first step towards creating such an agency, we propose the countries offer their national agencies to form a network. Our partnership with one of the Chinese rating agencies, Golden Credit, could be used as a prototype of this network,” Ekaterina Trofimova, Chief Executive Officer of the Analytical Credit Rating Agency, said.

There are also similar views. “Many foreign countries most often consider or rate BRICS countries, enterprises and financial institutions get a biased evaluation. We would like to see more neutral ones that we can further relate to,” according to Sergey Katyrin, President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation. It’s necessary to have unbiased ratings of institutions of BRICS countries as there are is open to the world and consistently expanding ties with concerned countries and seek integration into business associations, he explained.

Jayshree Sengupta, a Research Fellow from the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, India, thinks that BRICS want to have their own rating agency and are set to have it soon because the three international rating agencies Moody’s, Fitch and Standard & Poor that dominate the world sovereign rating market have been rather unfair to BRICS members and other developing countries. They frequently downgrade them on unjust grounds and criteria that serve western political interests. They downgraded Brazil and Russia in 2017 and keep changing their grading about India, creating much uncertainty.

Sengupta indicated in an email interview that “their ‘issuer paid’ model of rating is biased and BRICS members are perhaps contemplating having their own rating agency on ‘investor pays’ model which may be more appropriate for their Emerging Market economies.”

While expressing the fact that the idea is highly laudable, Francis Kornegay, a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Global Dialogue, University of South Africa, explained recently to me that “it has something to do with the global economic balance of power as to whether there is sufficient leverage among BRICS countries and other emerging powers to provide such an alternative.”

Kornegay specializes on global geopolitical and strategic trends and he is also a long-term analyst of global South and emerging power dynamics and US foreign policy. As such, he recently produced, as lead co-editor, Laying the BRICS of a New Global Order: From Yekaterinburg 2009 to eThekwini 2013 (Africa Institute of South Africa).

The BRICS economic growth rate is increasing. “Starting last year, all BRICS countries have demonstrated positive trend in economic growth. Moreover, we expect that the growth rate will be increasing through 2018 and 2019, especially in India,” according to Yaroslav Lisovolik, Chief Economist and Managing Director for Research at the Eurasian Development Bank.

Thus, a BRICS own rating agency has the benefit of reducing the dependency of sovereign and corporate ratings of the developing world on the verdicts of the “big three” referring to Moody’s, Standard & Poor and Fitch. “The fact that all five BRICS economies are to participate in launching the ratings agency serves as a wide enough base to create sufficient demand and use of its ratings compared to the relatively narrow potential of national rating agencies,” he explained.

In other words, an alliance among the largest developing countries is crucial in launching such an enterprise – on top of the possibilities of operating in the BRICS countries themselves and there may also be the possibility to expand the operations of such an agency to the regional partners of BRICS countries, Lisovolik suggested.

On his part, Brazilian Ambassador to Russia, Jose Vallim Antonio Guerreiro questioned how the procedures of existing rating agencies could be applicable to all economies. “The question is whether this procedure includes all the relevant factors. You may need to look for alternative indicators and broad approaches to assess the health of economies,” he argued. “I do not believe that the new agency will be something to resist the existing institutions. They do their job, and certainly, there is a demand for their services. But it is possible that the BRICS countries will elaborate a different approach.”

Some experts still cast doubts about the feasibility of the project. “As far as I know, this endeavour was considered too expensive and not feasible at the moment,” Professor Georgy Toloraya, Executive Director at the National Committee on BRICS Research in Russia, wrote me simply without detailed discussion on the topic.

But, an Associate Researcher at the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA), who requested for anonymity, strongly suggested that the BRICS credit rating agency as a business project could be well-managed if given to India, or at best, to China that previously offered a larger part of seed capital for the establishment of the New Development Bank.

The Financial Times reported that BRICS countries have long deliberated on plans to establish their own rating agency along with the formation of the New Development Bank. The BRICS member countries (namely Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) collectively represent about 26% of the world’s geographic area and are home to 2.88 billion people, about 42% of the world’s population.

By the calculus of madman theory of diplomacy, Donald Trump thinks he can use the tactics of diplomatic compellence to pressurize the opponents into adopting a behaviour that suits the U.S. interests. Let alone the U.S.’ vaunted opponents (North Korea and Iran), its trans-Atlantic partners in Europe are not expressing any pliancy on scuttling the Iranian nuclear deal.

In continuation of their more than 12 years long process of diplomatic negotiations, European leaders consistently tried to persuade U.S. President Trump to remain in the deal.

Disregarding European concerns, Trump said sayonara to the deal.

Furthermore, the U.S. secretary of state Mike Pompeo, in his speech at Heritage Foundation, specifically warned European companies to stop doing business in Iran or face the U.S.’ secondary sanctions.

European leaders have voiced their upfront defiance.

Arguably, there is a high politics involved in Europe’s efforts to preserve the Iranian nuclear deal. For Europe, security of Middle East is much more important than economic interests. That said, the issues of low politics are of secondary value to Europe and are merely used as a ploy to convince Iran to stay in the deal.

Europe is well aware that the chaos and entropy in the Middle East—civil war in Syria, devastated state institutions in Iraq and the subsequent emergence of the Islamic State—were not least the aftermath of the instability following the 2003 invasion on Iraq. That also explains the logic behind EU’s investment of around 2 billion Euros every year on the security of the Middle East and North Africa.

For insecurity in the Middle East does spill over across the Mediterranean Sea in the shape of refugee problems and insecurity and terrorism issues in Europe. These issues have in part led to the subsequent rise of extremist political parties in Europe, be it Italy’s recent election victors 5-Star Movement and League, Germany’s AfD party or France’s National Front led by Marie Le Pen.

The JCPOA is not only a staple of crisis-stability in the Middle East but also, according to Ms Mogherini, “an essential part of the nonproliferation global architecture”.

If anything, the pull-out from the deal would push Iran to intensify its efforts for building the nuclear bomb. That being a precedent, Saudi Arabia might also follow the suit. Extending from that premise, Israel would resort to making preventive strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, inviting Iran’s retaliatory response. Consequently, a full-blown war in the Middle East would erupt. That is the scenario that Europe seeks to ward off.

Europe’s effort to protect their economic stakes is arguably only a ploy, not a major foreign policy concern. It is not bent on diplomatic disagreement with the United States to preserve its economic interests alone. For EU’s bilateral trade with Iran of $21 billion in 2017 was fifty-two times lower than its trade with the United States, which stood at $1.1 trillion in 2016.

To maintain the leverage over Iran through guaranteeing economic benefits, the European leaders met in Sofia, Bulgaria on 17th-18th May and formally declared their steps.

The measures included the reintroduction of the Blocking Statute of 1996, which prohibits European companies from complying with the U.S. sanctions, making direct payments to Iranian central bank in Euros, financing transactions in Iran under the EU budget guarantee, and encouraging further investments in Iran’s energy sector, among others.

Insofar as the European Multi-National Corporations (MNCs) are concerned, such as France’s oil giant Total, they have multibillion-dollar investments in the United States and most of their transactions are financed by the U.S. banks. Total has already declared to wind down operations in Iran if the U.S. and European authorities do not grant it sanctions-waiver for its multibillion-dollar South Pars 11 project in Iran. Same is the case with other French, German and Italian MNCs working in Iran.

To protect interests of the European giant enterprises in Iran, the Europeans have the leverage of massive trade with the United States as a bargaining chip to persuade the latter to grant exemptions to the European companies involved in strategic trading areas such as energy, automobile and aeronautics. U.S.’ grant of a waiver to Chinese ZTE is a precedent already.

After all, for the European stakes to remain intact, Europe needs to convince the Trump administration as to why preserving the 2015-nuclear deal is so vital for the U.S. strategic interests as well. Europe needs not navigate away from the United States, nor it can. The European-US, European-Iran and intra-Europe negotiations are crucial for preserving the Iranian nuclear deal.

*The writer is a research assistant at Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad. He can be reached at riazkhokhar11@gmail.com, or Twitter handle, @riaz1khokhar.

Pashtuns are an eminent part of the Pakistani society and have been valiant sons of the motherland who have given unprecedented sacrifices for Pakistan, its people and ideology. On the very initial days of independence in 1947, when war was imposed by the historical and ancestral enemy Hindu India, these brave Pashtuns at the first call to take up arms in defence of the new motherland were the first to lay their lives and liberate parts of Jammu and Kashmir from the deceit of its Hindu ruler and the mischief of Hindu India who had become haughty after being installed in Delhi from where Muslim power in the subcontinent had prevailed for a millennia before the ascendency of the British by treachery.

Pashtuns also historically had served in Muslim armies who dominated India, even the grand trunk road which linked the most eastern part of the Indian subcontinent from Calcutta to Central Asia was conceived by a Pashtun general Sher Shah Suri who envisioned a Muslim empire stretching from the inner most Central Asian Steppe to the jungles of Far East Asia. Later the grand trunk, the first gigantic geopolitical project of mass military and non- military movement of man and material become the bulwark of contention in the great game between the British and the Russian Empires. Strategically speaking all the British military deployments were along the grand trunk road, done to counter the influence and the post 1812 Russian military posture which was poised for the conquest of India and planned by the Imperial general staff of the Tsar to oust the British all along the grand trunk road starting from Amu Dyra which is modern day border of Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, by first ceasing control of the north western portion of the grand trunk road (modern day Pakistan, specifically Khyber Pakthunkawa and Potohar region of Punjab) and then later incursions further into the Indian heartland across the Indian plains towards the southern and south eastern coasts. The Tsar in St. Petersburg was quick to recall an ancient Russian saying “Valiant Russian soldiers will wash in the warm waters of the seas at coasts of Russian India”.

During this great game the historical areas of Pushtun tribes came right in the middle of this geopolitical great game between the British and the Russians. Both of these imperial and hardcore colonial powers tried to use the Pashtuns as their proxies. The famous English author Rudyard Kipling who was English ethnically but by sole an ardent Lahori (hence a modern day Pakistani) has written extensively and romanticized the adventures, mysteries and espionage games between the British and the Russians in the historical areas of Pashtuns. Despite being under pressure from two bullies of the day, the Pashtuns were to maintain their independence, some out rightly in the mountains and some in semi feudal structures cunningly playing out the British and the Russians.

With the advent of the 20th century came the advancement in technology which meant that socio-cultural, linguistic and political transformations could be achieved rapidly and unprecedentedly. These transformations which took several generations or centuries to accomplish in the past now could happen in the number of years or even in days if backed by exacerbating the protest potential of the targeted population or an ethnic group with a population. Under these conditions the Pashtuns faced a new threat, firstly from the communists from Moscow and contemporarily now from the western and Indian presence in Afghanistan.

During the Cold War or even before in the intermit period between the first and the second world wars, the communists who had established themselves firmly in the Eurasian heartland were eager and confident to spread this ideology throughout the world either through revolution or through spreading of propaganda socio-cultural propaganda. The Pashtuns being a primordial ethnic group and residing in strategic areas connecting South and Central Asia became the prime targets. What the communist did was to spread the false notion of similarities between Pashtuns and the Russian people based on utter lies. Such as linguistic similarities, cultural similarities, etc. These similarities never existed as the historical evolution of both the races happened in very different geographical and political circumstances. With the Russians originating in modern day Sweden and the Pashtuns whose ethnic origins scientifically are still not confirmed with just oral traditions, either in Khorasan region of greater Persia or in Arabia. These oral traditions with lack of scientific studies were quickly realized by the communist who began disseminating pseudo-scientific publications and propaganda of ethnic similarities. They did this for two reasons, first to gain soft power over the Pashtuns and secondly to instill their political ideals through a Pashtun nationalists political party (which in reality were Stalin’s useful instrument of subversion (within the sociopolitical sphere of the Pashtuns, so when the time would come for the annexation of the Pashtun homeland into the Soviet Union there would be no or minimal resistance. Instead the communist would be welcomed as long lost ancestors. During the latter part of the Cold War, the Americans picked this sinister communist plot and used their subdued ally Germany as a substitute by propagating that Germans and Pashtuns are long lost brothers as a counter measure during the Soviet- Afghan War.

With the advent of the 21st century and the subsequent start of the Global War on Terrorism as a follow up to the lost Global War on Drugs started by Regan, new dynamics and rigor began to appear in the manipulation of the Pashtun social sphere. For just to gain soft power over the Pashtuns and to totally control their hearts and minds towards acceptance of subjugation through first rebellion and destruction of their homeland and secondly through whatever would remain or those who would survive would be so thwarted that they would become powerless and hence ineffective to challenge the ropes of the control system. What now the adversaries are planning is to artificially create reality for the Pashtuns. In this sinister and evil plot from the very prominent personalities to the very obscure are playing the devil’s advocate within Pakistan and also from outside backed by political parties and NGOs who are bent upon to manipulate the primordial social structure of the Pashtuns. In this sinister plot, NGOs are also playing their part by instilling social practices which are alien and utterly unacceptable to historical Pashtun traditions. In the garb of humanitarian assistance, these NGOs are now instilling ideals of changing sexual orientations of the Pashtun youth and children while bent upon destroying the traditional social fabric in the name of gender equality. Majority of the Pashtuns and also other ethnic Pakistanis do not know that those giving lessons on gender equality within their countries and social dynamics women are still fighting for achieving equality. Within EU equal respect, equal remuneration and equal access to public and private goods are still not achieved while in Pakistan these very people are promoting these ideals with their house not in order. This smells of a clandestine plot not understood by the policy maker in Pakistan or who is deliberately a silent observer bought out.

And of course there is old adversary India, who at the moment appears silent but is hand in hand in supporting these clandestine sinister plots against the Pashtuns. Waiting for an opportunity that when the time will come when either soft power over Pashtuns is complete or there is outright rebellion against Pakistan, it will decisively intervene and make it sure that its greater India project is realized.

*Shaikh Muhammad Bilal is an online journalist

We came across a skeleton of a building bristling with warnings: Asbestos, Stay Out; Danger, Do Not Enter. The sense was that entering this site of history in Townsville, North Queensland, would kill you. And damn well it would have, sending you keeling over in fumes, damning you even if, on entering, you had hoped to see a miniature copy of the nubile Chloe overseeing the meal counter, taken from a painting that resides in holy majesty at Young and Jacksons Pub in Melbourne. The Victoria Park Hotel, it seemed, was no more, consumed by hellish fire.

Funereal rites for burned buildings are as significant as they are for humans. For within them, there existed men and women who flitted about, performed their tasks, discharged their duties. People caroused, gossiped, cooked, ate, defecated, and fornicated. A life history, in a fashion.

Grief produces misinformed and paranoid children; anger much the same. Such offspring demand the answers that only deities could provide, a record of evidence that no mortal could satisfy. The account from the Townsville Bulletin on this tragic burning screams of suggestion and theory: there were three in the hotel near the moment when the sparks began (around midnight); one went for a walk (not in of itself odd, though teasingly curious, given that few people walk in that part of town), but they came back. Were the other two burning Rome as the other fiddled on the stroll?

Then there is the sense that another story was humming away in the background, enticing alternative explanations and hypotheses. The building was up for sale – some $2.5 million. Ideas do the rounds, and soon, the tangled cliché of an explanation comes to provide some false certitude: the insurance job, or a vengeful rebuke.

This does not need actual knowledge, merely enthusiastic speculation. But the implications in a town where the heritage building is deemed the enemy of modern and vulgar construction projects is hard to avoid.

Well moneyed history buffs should have rushed in with the enthusiasm of an Antiques Road Show judge to purchase this wonder; the hotel was a model piece of clumsy adaptation and glorious modification for public use. It spoke, in that characteristically broken note, of old Australia, the unforgivingly cruel and brutal settlements of north Queensland in the 1880s, the White Man’s goal hewn into a remorseless earth. For here, there would be drink, relief, and rest.

In design, it was an installation art piece – of sorts. Nothing of the Florentine about it (no trace of the geometrically dogmatic Leon Battista Alberti, nor lined purity of Filippo Brunelleschi) but there was effort, like so many architectural experimenters in North Queensland, to create something handsome and easy on the eye. In this alien landscape, you adapt, tinker, mould, bruise the dry earth, temper resistance, conquer the variables. From the street, it had perpendicular forms that would have inspired sighs from the neat minded.

The toilets were conventionally ordinary, reeking with the testosterone meanderings of provincial Queensland; the timber reeked of historical readings and additions, the bric-a-brac of lateral thinking. There was a sense of the gaudy, the lights taking you back to retro disco.

Everything else was fiercely authentic: the canines outside waiting for their owners, anguished by neglect, lapping from water bowls; the all-female meetings at dinner celebrating, not merely their triumph of being alive but the absence of the Man and the more vicious plural (husbands, sons, man children), those irritating sport freaks who find rugby more arousing than heterosexual banter. And families – and so many: the birthdays, the anniversaries, the special occasions.

To go into this joy of a structure, this wood citadel promising libation, would be to find yourself in a drinking hole of garrulous louts in smeared singlets and stained shorts resistant to the wash; coarse fortune tellers and liver-corroded impresarios keen to noise you to death; and bar tenders with a fluffy grace in serving drinks with deft soft hands; strong women capable of breaking backs and building the Tower of Babel.

One stood out, a rock strong heroine cut with just enough humour to be cut from the script of Stephen Sondheim, garnished with mad hair and touched with lipstick. She steered the show, directed the performance, insisting that the “Verdello” (Verdelho pulverised by Australian pronunciation) was the best, and the absolute best, and making sure that the other ladies performed accordingly in understanding and discharging the orders at hand.

To go to the side of lout land and rough trade was to find yourself on an odd assortment of cafeteria style seating that should have revolted. Instead, you could only marvel at a menu that suggested promise – and danger. The fillet mignon tended to inspire. Portions were enormous and challenging.

Now, gone. Disappeared in an asbestos released conflagration. But from the great structures of life comes prospects for renewal. A new project, perhaps. In the European tradition of churches, buildings lost to fire were spiritual promises rather than actual regrets; for in those charred remains came seedlings of promise. The Victoria Park Hotel may be no different and there is already talk of salvation.

This research paper is divided into five main parts. The first part concerns with defining the variables and problematises the term of ‘remilitarization’ to understand the changes in the security policy of Japan. The second part explains the main assumptions of the theoretical framework employed to answer the main research problem. The third part explains the dynamic of the change in Japan’s policy by underlining the main historical precursors. The fourth part provides the answer to the research question on the causes of the shift from the ‘self-defence to the proactive defence’ policy of Japan. The fifth part elaborates the implication of the Japanese changing defence policy for the regional politics followed by the conclusion.

Introduction

Before analysing the dynamics of changes in Japan’s security policy spearheaded by the Abe administration, it is important to understand the scope and basic idea of the article nine of the Japanese constitution. The main focus of article nine is based on the renouncing war and use of force by Japan. In fact, it would not be wrong to say that it prohibits the use of force when it comes to the Japan’s self-defence forces. So the question arises what has changed now that seems to deepen the division in Japan over the article nine?

The answer is associated with the interpretation of the article nine which discourages the role of military forces in case of an attack. From the official perspective, the right of collective defence is being expanded so as to allow the Japan’s military forces to not only defend the country but its significant allies as well. In simple words, one school of thought views the interpretation of article nine as the opportunity to not only address the shortcomings of their security policy, rather it is seen as the mean to expand the conceptual contours of Japan’s national power in terms of adapting to an array of changes in the international arena.

On the other hand, the opposition including the public view is reading the ‘change’ endorsed by Abe’s government as the mean of drifting away from the long-held and celebrated notion of post-war Pacific Japan. The reinterpretation of article nine is seen as an attack on the Pacific traditions since it would allow the forces of Japan to participate in war or conflict if one of the allies of Japan is threatened. Therefore, the public of Japan and critics of Abe’s government see it as a threat, which could exploit the escalations with neighboring states; particularly China, which in turn could disrupt the security architecture of the region. Some of the advocates of a pacifist Japan are deeming it as a mean to stoke security concerns of the regional states, as it has the propensity to directly jeopardize the interests of Japan as well.

Speaking of article nine and its implications on the defence policy of Japan, it is important to understand the basic idea of the agreement between Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the ally of the government Komeito signed on 1st July 2014. Some of the observers read this development as the limitation faced by Abe to amend the constitution of Japan, given the requirement of majority consensus for any change in the Japan’s constitution. The interpretation of agreement backed by the Abe administration on article nine may allow Japan to exercise the right to use force in case of a threat or use of force by any state. Consequently, the right of collective defence could be invoked under the provisions of Japan’s constitution.

1 Definitions of the main variable and Theoretical Framework

1.1 What is meant by Japanese Re-militarization?

The use of prefix before the militarization of Japan in the title of the research topic surely has befuddling effect attached to it, since it reflects the traces of proclivity. Therefore, it is necessary to define and elaborate the rationale behind the use of a biased term ‘remilitarization’. The main idea is to problematise the term of militarization being used by the various observers in analyzing the approval of a bill in Japan that may reinterpret the article nine in Japan’s constitution.

Assuming the premise of the analysts is correct, it is necessary to make a distinction between a militarized Japan and a remilitarized Japan, given the past behavior and experience of the imperialist Japan that encouraged ‘use of force’ to increase the area of influence and state power at the international level. It is, therefore, important to highlight that it is factually wrong to dub the recent wave of changes in the security policy of Japan as mere militarization.

Second, a survey of the Japan’s revisions in security policy after the end of Second World War clearly reveals the gradual upgrading in terms of weapons acquisition aimed at enhancing the military capability of Japan.

Third, the aim is to question the notion related to the military posture, as it will help to investigate the underlying bias of arguments being stated by the observers particularly those who view Japan on the road to remilitarization as the “imperial Japan” before the Second World War did.

2 Theoretical Framework

The problem under investigation has a multifaceted nature; one of the most significant variables entails a gigantic claim associated with Japan’s security policy, as it views the revisions brought about by the government of premier Abe as aggressive: which would remilitarize Japan’s forces in the distant future if not in the coming three to four years. That being said, the main argument of the research study will focus on the seemingly two opposite schools of thought, it comprises those who have been observing the revisions in the security policy of Japan for the past couple of years.

Given the nature of the problem under investigation, the main assumptions espoused by Gideon Rose helps to understand the research problem. Among many other reasons, one of the compelling reasons for the choice of neo-classical realism is linked to the number of variables addressed by the advocates of the theory.

First, the intersection of internal and external variables in the policy of Japan is relevant to the research problem addressed in this study. Likewise, this research involves the understanding of not only the external pressures in impacting the security policy of Japan but the role of public opinion in addition to other domestic variables in shaping the security policy of Japan. The very integrating nature of neoclassical realism is what makes it different than the neorealist and classical realism. Since it incorporates variables at two distinct levels by providing an explanation of the policy choices, and how the process of grand strategy is formulated at the national level.

Simply put, the theory of neo-classical realism is the combination of structural variables and domestic variables from a pluralistic perspective. Conceptually, the idea of a grand strategy is also important to understand here. Since it explains the role of non-military means in terms of politics and how the ideology of nation serves to increase the power of a state. It basically highlights a level where variables of systemic and domestic level interact with the state level dynamics. It involves the role of public opinion as well, as the choice of policies and how the leadership reads a particular situation in terms of making the decision of going to war and peace. In other words, the interaction of these variables at two different variables defines the policy choices in Japan.

For instance, Abe’s administration in Japan has altered the interpretation of a particular article in Japan’s constitution which cannot be viewed independently of the domestic and international dynamics. To put simply, the interplay of the unit level and international variables do influence the policies and perception of a national leadership in Japan.

After determining the national goals perceived by the leadership of Japan, the choice of the means required for the attainment of the goals is important. The behavior of Japan towards the changing dynamics of international politics along with domestic factors facilitates in pursuing the desired goals.

In the Japanese context, the international environment can be taken as the changing polarity of the international structure in addition to the domestic constraint in form of opposition of the public opinion to any security revision that could lead Japan to more of an aggressive state.

Abe’s grand strategy can be analyzed by examining the nature of threats being posed to the national security of Japan. This assumption is inspired from the arguments of the classical realism in form of identifying the strategic environment. Likewise, the national interests of Japan can be assessed by overviewing the order of national priorities.

Hence, the material capability of Japan in the international system and the threats are also taken into consideration. Similarly, the historical relations of Japan with its neighbors and the ‘difference of ideology’ is another variable. But the problem that could disturb the process of conveying the information to the leadership of the state and how it is perceived by him/her is another factor that plays a significant role, it means that the process of threat perception directly depend on the information being fed to the decision makers, as it influences the outcomes of any political change.

3 Historical Roots

First, the use of term ‘remilitarization’ has its roots in the imperialistic past of Japan. Although the Meiji period is associated with reformation and an epoch of change for Japan; particularly, in the economic and political sphere, however, the two Japanese victories over China and Korea (1894-1895) are worth mentioning in order to understand the contemporary changes in the security doctrine of Japan. This can be deemed as one of the various causes of tense relations with China. In other words, Sino-Japanese enmity has historical roots as emphasized by the theorist of the realist school of thought.

Military modernization is the second significant factor that promoted a sense of aggression among the Japanese forces. This can be dived into three main phases: the first phase (1853 to 1870) was dominated by the introduction of organizational changes which was narrowed or institutionalized in the second phase (1870-1878), it attained a structure which gave it a proper form particularly to the army and naval forces, rather it is safe to claim that most of the processes and mechanism were given a shape in this phase. The third phase (1878-1890) focused on building the link between the military with social and political sectors of the society1.

Since the overlapping of military, political and social aspects contribute in gaining legitimacy at the societal level. The precursor behind the modernization was accentuated as a result of the threat from the Western world. Moreover, the dreaded access to Japan was through the sea, the attention, therefore, was given to the development of navy. Given the progress of the development, one can easily say that the structures, which promoted the militaristic forces, continue to dominate Japan regardless of the Meiji reformation.

In simple words, the promotion of militancy is connected with these medieval structures and low purchasing power of the Japanese people, since it diverted Japan towards seeking more markets. Hence the need for outer markets was achieved in form of breaching the sovereignty of adjoining states.

Third, Japan’s interaction with Korea in terms of significance is another factor, which contributed in shaping their relations in the East Asian region. This succinctly explains Japan’s relentless efforts to hold on to Korea, as giving it up to become a colony of other imperial powers meant a source of direct threat for Japan2.

In other words, the threat perception of Japan depended on the geographical proximity of Korea with the national security of Japan. One of the dimensions of Korea-Japan relations involves China factor. It can be traced back to 1881 when Japan attempted to increase her political, economic clout in Korea in form of developing the military forces of Japan. Despite falling into the Chinese area of influence, various strategies were employed to bring Japanese inclined group into power. Hence, the military became the common tool of achieving the desired goals.

Fourth, modernization coalesced with industrialization increased the pressure on Japan to adopt expansionist policies in order to broaden the area of influence, as it was associated with gaining international recognition as a ‘powerful state’. Therefore, expansionism was the common mean to achieve a significant place in the international arena.

Fifth, coming to the public support of imperialist Japan, one may view it as an attempt to resist the “oppression” of China. Interestingly, in the past, Japanese viewed expansionist policies as a noble pursuit, which helped the rulers to gain legitimacy for the expansionist policies; for example, securing the territory of Korea in form of bringing it into their area of influence was one of the underlying policies. Additionally, the war of Japan with China is often cited as the most defining development, which led to the display of immense power for increasing the Japanese influence in Korea. This also brought the Western powers close to China, since both of them perceived a threat from Japan. Hence, the Western powers witnessed competition in business and the rivalry over Korea between Japan and China, among many reasons.

In short, conventional wisdom associates the expansionist policies of Japan in 1984 onwards with the samurai ambition to deal with the imperialism of “whites”. This strategy was based on the principle of expansionism. Since most of the efforts and policies pursued by the government of Japan displayed a collective aim of acquiring the territories that had strategic meaning for Japan. Therefore, use of force was the commonly adopted mean to secure and conquer those adjoining territories which had an affiliation with Japan.

The main purpose was to increase the area of influence and build Japanese empire, as it played a role in building one strong empire to counter the influence of those western powers that had heterogeneous colonies under their control. Even in early twentieth century, the social foundation of Japan continued to be dominated by the influence of two main classes: bourgeoisie and military despite the adoption of the capitalist economic system3. Consequently, it brought more profit and influence for the two classes of Japan followed by the recognition at the international forum.

4 Understanding the Shift from Self Defence to Proactive Defence

Before determining the nature of militaristic turn in Japan’s defence policy, it is pertinent to understand the official perspective of Abe’s government and his supporters. The term “sekkyokuteki heiwashugi” literally “proactive pacifism” is translated as “proactive contributor to peace”4. It is based on the principle of international cooperation, which lays stress on playing a responsible role in maintaining international security.

The distinct feature of this policy emphasizes on playing an active role rather than a passive role in the global security. This idea is essentially derived from the document of Japan’s national security strategy.

It concerns with an extension of a national interest of a state with the security of its territory, progress as well as the need to coordinate internationally with global actors. In simple words, the role of international community is correlated with the national interests of the Japanese state. Coming to the main signifiers of Japan’s strategy paper, it highlights three pillars about the policy. The first one deals with enhancing the defence capability of Japan. The second is focused on deepening the alliance between Japan and US. And the third one deals with collaboration and cooperation with other states.

4.1 What prompted the shift in Japanese policy?

According to the official stance, the latest revision was a change in order to respond to increasing Chinese threat5. To back the premise of the argument, the case of Japanese hostages is cited to justify the inability of the military to save them from the Islamic state. The approval of the new bill is viewed in terms of broadening the scope of article nine to defend its ally (The United States as it has been stressed in the strategy paper of Japan).

In response, critics of this bill dread the involvement of Japan when it comes to the rivalry of the United States with China in the Middle East. So the question arises here: Can the so-called principle of collective defence turn into an act of aggression? The critics of Abe government outrightly reject the claims, as Japanese security is guaranteed by the USA.

Taking into account the humanitarian turn of Japan’s constitution of 1992, one may assess the impact of external pressures and changes asserted by Neo-Classical realism on the constitution of Japan. Since the peace-keeping function of Japan’s forces is reinterpreted as ‘collective self- defence’. This means that it reflects three main observations: first, the role of the army was initially seen as something abhorrent by the public of Japan. Second, the involvement of Japan’s self-defence forces in humanitarian missions helped to increase their credibility in the mind of Japanese in addition to removing the skeptical attitude towards their role. Third, the contours of Japan self-defence forces (JSDF) have been bounded by the constitution of Japan which can be steadily broadened to attain a controversial form in terms of sparking the controversy of remilitarization.

Most of the advocates of Abe’s policy revisions perceive the idea of peace upheld by Japan (right after the Second World War) as complete dissociation with military forces or their use in the combat missions. However, the older interpretation of Japan’s article nine missed the point related to a significant role of military forces in the security and maintenance of peace. But the dynamics of changes taking place in the international system based on the distribution of power and military muscle makes it imperative for Japan to maintain peace and order with the help of Japanese forces. Second, the development of flexing military muscle is the natural consequence exercised by those states that have attained a particular position in terms of economic gains.

4.2 Is Japan’s remilitarization a defensive or an offensive posture?

The answer to this question is difficult due to the implied connotation attached with these interchangeable terms. For example, the ‘defence’ for one state can and is mostly seen as the ‘offense’ by another state. Therefore, the answer depends on the perspective of the viewer analyzing the actions of a state.

In case of China or other neighboring states, the revisions in Japan’s defence policy are bound to create a sense of caution if not threat in the backdrop of changes taken to upgrade Japanese defence capabilities. However, if one looks at the whole debate from the point of view of policymakers of Japan, one would realize the presence of various threats and pressure in form of changing regional dynamics and internal pressure on the government of Mr. Abe to maximise security.

All those who associate remilitarization of Japan’s defence policy with an abrupt change fails to take note of the steady policy changes that have been taking place for the past two-three decades to beef up the military capability of Japan. For example, the focus on mutual cooperation granted approval to the United States to establish military bases, both parties agreed to defend each other. However, it does not mean that it allows the Japan to use its forces in case of an attack in United States by invoking the article nine6.

4.3 Opposition of Japanese Public

The role of public opinion can be best understood in form of the protest to the security agreement between Japan and America. The cause of this reaction from the public is grounded in the fears of being embroiled in the battles of America across the world. The second reason is related to holding onto the Japan’s tradition and value of being a ‘pacifist’ state, since people are still haunted by the repercussions of Second World War. In other words, people are not cognizant of the international pressures to upgrade security capability in the wake of the emerging threats.

5 Implications for the Regional Security

5.1 How will re-militarization of Japan shape the regional politics of Asia-Pacific?

From the perspective of the Neo-classical realist, the categorization of any state into the ‘status-quo’ or ‘revisionist’ state is over simplistic, since it is more important to trace the shift from one category to another by surveying the strategic adjustments of Japan. For Dueck, the assessment of a policy is connected with the strategic decision-making7. In simple words, it is important to identify the shifts in military deployment, spending, alliance to examine the change in the position of a state in the international hierarchy in addition to the interplay with the adversary.

For example, after the end of the Second World War, the US government had urged Japan to make the change in light of missile technology cooperation and in connection with the production of the F-35 stealth fighter8. According to one interpretation; Japan is free to sell weapons from multinational to another country, which has the potential to make Japan an interesting alliance partner in terms of improving state to state relations.

In the regional context, Japan feels threatened because China is modernizing at a fast pace, Chinese attention to the upgrading military capability and assertive foreign policy are among the few of defining variables. Similarly, North Korea’s nuclear program is the second factor in making Japanese cautious of the regional dynamics. Although Russia is not a direct part of the East Asian region, however, its past conflict over Kuril is something that plays a role in making and changing the threat perception of Japan. Coming to the institutional influence and response of Japan, it has developed a Security Council in order to respond to the emerging threats and regional dynamics. This response is also stressed by one of the assumptions of Neo-Classical realism. As it helps to view how Japan perceives the threats it is confronted with and the likely options to respond. Undoubtedly, the organizational structure of National Security of Japan is similar to the American model; however, the main function of this council may yield different results, as it is expected to only improve the coordination and cooperation of Japan with its ally and other states9.

When it comes to the viewpoint of critics regarding the defence policy revisions led by Abe, it is easier to label him as a leader who is associated with “revisionist” policies. For them, the policies and role of Japan in the early 20th century are something to be condemned rather than overlooked. Similarly, the regional states; China in particular, and North Korea perceive Japan with a wary attitude. In the backdrop of uncertainty in the region, the revision of any article which would allow Japan to modernize military capability is bound to aggravate instability in the region.

The central issue of Japanese foreign and security policy is the unprecedented rise of China and the resulting shift of power in the Asia Pacific Region. For instance, the formidable Chinese economic growth rate for decades cannot be overlooked. In 2010, it surpassed Japan as the second-largest economy in the world. Parallel to its economic rise, Beijing has been investing ever-larger sums in its military, primarily in its navy and air force, a development which causes great unease in Japan. Since 1989, China’s defense expenditures have been growing at a rate of more than 10 percent per year.

The country’s official defense budget, at ¥13.4 trillion (approximately €102 billion) in 2014, is approximately three times that of Japan’s. Although Japan’s armed forces are technologically superior to China’s, this edge is steadily eroding. A study conducted by the Tokyo Foundation, a foreign policy think tank, concludes that China will attain “overwhelming [military] superiority” over Japan in the near future. Experts believe that China’s defense expenditures could surpass even those of the US around 203010.

In addition to the rise of China, the impact of 2008 financial crisis deteriorated the economy of Japan and its ally America. Despite the announcement of the American administration to fully support Japan in Asia Pacific, some of the policymakers are skeptical of the future, the engagement of United States in the Asia Pacific may slow down seems to be the most important concern of Japanese. One of the factions in Japan dreads the shift in America policy on China. This has become a source of constant trouble for many. In simple words, Japan fears that closer relations of the United States and China will affect their alliance with America. Therefore, it emboldens the Japanese perception of self-help in form of making attempts to become a ‘normal state’.

One of the many causes of negative public opinion is associated with the public perception of Japanese national interests and the role of their forces. For most of them, Japan is supposed to defend itself and play a part in humanitarian missions, anything that goes out of the publicly defined ambit is considered detrimental to the national interest of Japan. The use of Japanese forces to project power in the region is another matter of concern for the people.

To sum up, it would not be irrational to claim that the association of the term remilitarization does seem to present an exaggerated picture of the Japanese revisions because the steady Japanese changes in the past few decades are often ignored by the analysts. This means it is the combination of internal and external factors that have led Abe administration to make recent revisions in Japan’s constitution. North Korea’s missile and nuclear program in addition to rising China continue to threaten the policy-makers of Japan.

That being said, one cannot completely rely on the official stance of the government and all those who support Abe’s revisions. The argument given by public of Japan and pacifist does have validity and shows genuine concern of the people regarding the fate of Japan. Similarly, some of the revisions which allow Japan to acquire more weapons can aggravate the regional security dynamics in terms of increasing the mistrust and regional instability. Therefore, it would be simplistic to side with all the arguments of any school of thoughts in Japan. In order to completely understand all the dimensions of Abe’s reinterpretation of article nine, one will have to examine all the unfolding dynamics over the period of one to two years in order to provide a clear answer to the remilitarization question of Japan.

* Iqra Mobeen Akram works as a researcher at an Islamabad-based think tank

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Since 9/11, there has been a furious debate on the relationship between Islam and democracy. Many people have written on the issue. “To put it briefly, the significant democratic progress in countries such as Tunisia, Indonesia and others in Southeast Asia undermines the assertion that Islam and democracy are necessarily at odds with each other.” However, the case of Pakistan tells otherwise.

Since the beginning, religion has been entrenched into statecraft in Pakistan. The first Constituent Assembly of Pakistan passed the Objective Resolution on March 12, 1949. Since then, the Resolution has been the part of all the three constitutions of Pakistan namely the 1956, 1962 and 1973 Constitution. The Resolution weaved Islam into the polity and laid the foundations for future constitution-making in Pakistan. The original scheme of the relationship between the state and Islam under the Resolution was inclusive and egalitarian, and extended certain rights, liberties and safeguards to the minority in Pakistan. Furthermore, under the Resolution, Allah’s sovereignty has been accepted over the entire universe; and it was laid that Quran and Sunnah will guide the legislation and policy-making in Pakistan. Similarly, it recognized representative form of government and federal structure for Pakistan; it also recognized democracy to be introduced in Pakistan as enunciated by Islam.

Adoption of religion by state may lead to discrimination and persecution of religious minority and other sects within the same religion. For example, Zia’s Islamization programme was increasingly discriminatory against the religious minority and offended the Shia sect of Islam. In 1980, thousands of Shias gathered in front of the Parliament against several components of the Zia’s Islamization scheme. They ended their protest only when the government extended exemption to the Shias against such regulations as compulsory deduction of Zakat.

The genesis of the disruption of the democratic process and the consequent military rule in Pakistan could be traced to the religiosity of the Pakistani polity. In 1953, religiously motivated protests erupted against Ahmadis in Punjab. The protests went out of the control of the Punjab government and ultimately led to the imposition of martial law in Lahore. The martial law emboldened and opened the door for the military leadership to directly intervene in the civilian affairs. And since then, the military is intervening either directly or indirectly in the politics in Pakistan, which hinders the democratic development in Pakistan. Again in 1974, such protests erupted against Ahmadis throughout the country which ultimately led to the introduction of 2nd Amendment in the Constitution of 1973. Under the Amendment, Ahmadis were declared as a non-Muslim minority of Pakistan.

Similarly, Zial-Ul-Haq tried to legitimize his unconstitutional rule and elongate his stay in power through the introduction of his Islamization drive in Pakistan. In 2000s, under ‘Roshan Pakistan’ scheme General Pervaiz Musharraf tried to seek legitimacy for his military dictatorship by trying to reverse Zia’s Islamization program. However, he failed to reverse the process and instead generated an extremist response from the religious community. Even he failed to eradicate the religious and fundamentalist tendencies from his own institution. General Ashfaq Pervaiz Kiani, who was appointed by Musharraf as COAS, declared that Islam and Pakistan could not be separated; and that Pakistan Army is bound to protect both the territorial and ideological boundaries of the state.

Any endeavor to change the existing relationship between Islam and Pakistan may pose a serious challenge to a democratic government in Pakistan. Such endeavors may lead to the erosion of public support, which is must for democratic development, to an incumbent government. This is evident from the events that unfolded in the aftermath of the Electoral Reforms Act, 2017 which brought changes into the Khatm-E-Nabuwat related clauses in the oath for public representatives. The sitting government faced serious backlash from the people and other institutions.

Religious parties and interest groups were successful in invoking religious sentiments of the people against the government. Many MPs of the ruling party resigned from assemblies and joined the protesting religious groups. Even the military responded to it and declared that Army could not compromise on the finality of Prophet-hood of Muhammad (PBUH). The military was called by the federal government for aid to the civilian administration after the police failed to bring an end to the protest. However, the military showed increasing reluctance to disperse the protesters through crackdown and instead preferred a negotiated settlement to bring an end to the protest. To put in the words of Dr. Ishtiaq Husain, a prominent historian, the protest turned Pakistan into a mobocracy-rule of the mob.

Another example of how the religion and democracy interact in Pakistan could be Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification, which is considered by many as a blow to the democratic consolidation, from the office of Prime Minister. He was disqualified from the office by the Supreme Court of Pakistan under Article 62 f(1) which was introduced by General Zial-Ul-Haq under his Islamization drive. In 2010, under the 18th Amendment, the PPP suggested removal of all such conditions for qualification and disqualification of public representatives added by Zia-Ul-Haq to the Constitution of 1973. However, Nawaz Sharif allegedly opposed the initiative probably for a fear of losing the support of the religious constituency.

All these do not mean that Islam and democracy are necessarily incompatible with each other; rather it shows that how religion has been misused by the rulers and various interests groups for the promotion of their narrow political objectives without taking into consideration the harmful effects of their actions.

When I was in Congress and had to regularly fly between DC and Texas, I was routinely subjected to invasive “pat-downs” (physical assaults) by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA). One time, exasperated with the constant insults to my privacy and dignity, I asked a TSA agent if he was proud to assault innocent Americans for a living.

I thought of this incident after learning that the TSA has been compiling a “troublesome passengers” list. The list includes those who have engaged in conduct judged to be “offensive and without legal justification” or disruptive of the “safe and effective completion of screening.” Libertarian journalist James Bovard recently pointed out that any woman who pushed a screener’s hands away from her breasts could be accused of disrupting the “safe and effective completion of screening.” Passengers like me who have expressed offense at TSA screeners are likely on the troublesome passengers list.

Perhaps airline passengers should start keeping a list of troublesome TSA agents. The list could include those who forced nursing mothers to drink their own breast milk, those who forced sick passengers to dispose of cough medicine, and those who forced women they found attractive to go through a body scanner multiple times. The list would certainly include the agents who confiscated a wheelchair-bound three-year-old’s beloved stuffed lamb at an airport and threatened to subject her to a pat-down. The girl, who was at the airport with her family to take a trip to Disney World, was filmed crying that she no longer wanted to go to Disney World.

The TSA is effective at violating our liberty, but it is ineffective at protecting our security. Last year, the TSA’s parent agency, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), conducted undercover tests of the TSA’s ability or detect security threats at airports across the country. The results showed the TSA staff and equipment failed to uncover threats 80 percent of the time. This is not the first time the TSA has been revealed to be incompetent. An earlier DHS study fund TSA screenings and even the invasive pat-downs were utterly ineffective at finding hidden weapons.

The TSA’s “security theater” of treating every passenger as a criminal suspect while doing nothing to stop real threats is a rational response to the incentives the TSA faces as a government agency. If the TSA puts up an appearance of diligently working to prevent another 9/11 by inconveniencing and even assaulting as many travelers as possible, Congress will assume the agency is doing its job and keep increasing the TSA’s budget. Because the TSA gets its revenue from Congress, not from airline passengers, the agency has no reason to concern itself with customer satisfaction and feels free to harass and assault people, as well as to make lists of people who stand up for their rights.

Congress should end the TSA’s monopoly on security by abolishing the agency and returning responsibility for security to the airlines. The airline companies can contract with private firms that provide real security without treating every passenger as a criminal suspect. A private security firm that assaults its customers while failing to detect real dangers would soon go out of business, whereas the TSA would likely have its budget and power increased if there was another attack on the US.

If shutting down the TSA is too “radical” a step, Congress should at least allow individuals to sue TSA agents for assault. Anyone who has suffered unfair treatment by the TSA as a result of being put on the “troublesome passengers” list should also be able to seek redress in court. Making TSA agents subject to the rule of law is an important step toward protecting our liberty and security.

This article was published by RonPaul Institute.

By Michael Lelyveld

China has offered to scrap foreign investment limits on a long list of sectors in hopes of avoiding U.S. tariffs, but the opportunities would have little impact, analysts say.

While the outcome of U.S.-China trade frictions is still unresolved, China has put a series of “opening-up” measures on the table as incentives for a deal to end the bilateral disputes.

Last week, China continued to dangle new investment breaks following the U.S. decision to proceed with imposing 25-percent tariffs on U.S. $50 billion (320 billion yuan) of Chinese goods.

The penalties on Chinese products containing “industrially significant technologies” will be imposed in light of violations of intellectual property rights (IPR) and “other unfair trade practices,” President Donald Trump said in a statement Friday.

China quickly vowed to take retaliatory measures, but an official statement was initially unclear about whether they would apply only to tariffs or also the investment offerings that China has made in recent months.

“We will immediately take tariff measures of the same scale and intensity. All economic and trade outcomes of previous talks will now lose effect,” a Ministry of Commerce spokesperson said.

Within hours, Beijing announced 25-percent tariffs on American goods valued at about U.S. $50 billion including agricultural products, vehicles, and seafood, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

But the threat of tit-for-tat trade penalties was soon followed by renewed promises of “opening-up” to foreign investment.

A statement by the cabinet-level State Council said China would press ahead with plans to widen market access by July 1. The government also pledged to strengthen IPR protection and raise limits on compensation for infringement.

Investment breaks

While the extent of the new opening remains to be seen, U.S. economists have questioned the value of the investment breaks that China has offered so far.

On the surface, the potential opportunities appeared impressive. But analysts see the steps as restricted in scope and riddled with qualifications.

“It’s important to distinguish between modestly expanded market access for foreign companies and broader industry liberalization,” said Scott Kennedy, deputy director of China studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“China has signaled some of the former but none of the latter,” Kennedy said.

Beijing’s gambits began in April with an announcement from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) that China would gradually phase out rules that have limited foreign shareholding in the auto sector to 50 percent.

The top planning agency said it would lift the cap for manufacturing special-purpose and new energy vehicles starting this year, eventually expanding the break to passenger cars in 2022.

The change in the rule was initially welcomed because China’s automotive joint ventures have been a primary conduit for forced technology transfers. IPR violations have been the major source of complaints from foreign companies in China for two decades or more.

But within days, enthusiasm waned as the international auto giants said the break came too late following years of heavy investment in local partnerships and manufacturing.

The opening for foreign makers of electric cars was also narrowed by Chinese subsidies and preferences for domestic batteries, The New York Times reported. “Now the cheering has stopped,” it said.

Similar reservations have clouded the responses to planned barrier-busting in industries including shipbuilding and aircraft manufacturing.

Morning-after disappointment also followed a Ministry of Finance (MOF) announcement on May 22 that China would cut tariffs on imported cars to 15 percent from 25 percent.

The Times called it a trade gesture “that may barely register,” suggesting that foreign cars from abroad might only compete with foreign joint venture models.

Hoping for a deal

Since then, China has loaded its opening-up menu with more offerings, hoping for a deal to end U.S. tariff and investment threats.

On May 31, the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) said it would issue revisions to its “negative lists” of sectors that remain closed to foreign investment by June 30.

The two separate lists for China’s free trade zones and the national market would create new openings in “energy, resources, infrastructure, transportation, commercial and professional services,” Xinhua said.

But the report dimmed hopes for any immediate or blockbuster breakthroughs. MOC spokesman Gao Feng cited “a transitional period for some industries” and “specific opening-up measures that will be unveiled in the next few years.”

On the same day, the State Council announced tariff cuts on 1,449 consumer goods, ranging from foreign shoes to refrigerators.

But based on the vague generalities of official statements, there has been little to suggest a sudden change in the preferential policies that have protected state-owned enterprises (SOEs) on their sluggish pace toward market reforms.

“We need to aim higher in attracting foreign investment,” said Premier Li Keqiang at a State Council meeting on the day of the MOC announcement. “We should raise our innovation capacity in the new round of opening-up and see that all intellectual property is fully protected.”

“No forced technology transfers will ever be imposed on foreign-invested enterprises, and IPR infringements will be penalized to the full extent of the law,” Li said, seeming to imply that no infringements are taking place.

On June 5, a Xinhua report said that China had achieved “remarkable success in IPR protection,” citing the State Intellectual Property Office.

The agency said that 192,000 cases of patent infringement had been investigated along with 173,000 cases of trademark infringement and counterfeiting in the past five years. The report made no mention of forced technology transfer complaints.

Little on offer

Kennedy said that little was expected to come out of the opening-up promises.

“We can expect gradual reductions in ownership caps and joint venture requirements and limited reductions in tariffs,” he said. “These steps may lead to modest increases in inward investment and imports that redound to individual firms, but they will not fundamentally change the landscape of these industries.”

“That is because the party-state will remain deeply involved in every one of these sectors, using all sorts of policies to favor certain technologies and companies over others,” he said.

Derek Scissors, an Asia economist and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, also saw little on offer that would affect China’s economy or economic policies.

“I read the steps as diplomatic rather than economic,” he said.

In shipbuilding, for example, Scissors cited the State Council’s decision in March to give preliminary approval for a merger of China State Shipbuilding Corp. and China Shipbuilding Industry Corp., the country’s two biggest SOEs in the field.

The combined company will dwarf its South Korean rivals, Bloomberg News reported.

“That is not an action of a government wanting more competition,” Scissors said.

The proposed lowering of barriers in the financial sector was also seen as motivated by China’s needs for fresh funds rather than an opening to international capital flows.

“In finance, they have been seeking private and foreign money due to debt problems, not because they’re going to change the way capital is allocated,” Scissors said.

Internationalization of the yuan

Financial markets are still awaiting details of plans outlined in April by People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Yi Gang, calling for eased limits on foreign-owned institutions including banks, asset managers, investment firms, and insurance companies.

So far, there seems to be little movement on a key pledge to speed the internationalization of the yuan by allowing convertibility on the capital account.

Speaking at the annual Boao Forum for Asia in April, Yi said only that capital account liberalization would take place “on a gradual basis, while keeping the exchange rate of the yuan stable,” the official English-language China Daily reported.

Scissors said the statement offered nothing new.

“Capital account convertibility has been speeding up for 20 years,” he said.

From the start of the latest round of offers, Chinese officials have stressed that the opening-up plans are part of China’s existing development agenda and not a response to foreign pressure.

“The measures are major strategic decisions made based on an accurate estimation of China’s current development level,” and “have nothing to do with the ongoing trade friction with the United States,” said MOC’s Gao on April 12, according to Xinhua.

“I translate the claim that external pressure is not important as, ‘We’re not doing anything important, so external pressure is not important,'” Scissors said.

Even so, China has ample reasons of its own for opening up, since the country’s official statistics have shown a dramatic falloff in the growth of foreign direct investment (FDI) this year.

Chinese reports have emphasized that FDI hit a record of 878 billion yuan (U.S. $139.9 billion) last year, rising 7.9 percent from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). But the growth rate has been declining for years.

The last double-digit growth rate was recorded in 2010, and FDI increases are now a shadow of the annual average of over 26 percent seen in 2004-2008, based on World Bank data.

This year, FDI growth has slipped even further, rising only 0.5 percent in the first quarter. Growth turned negative in April with a 1.1-percent decline from a year earlier, the MOC reported, leaving four-month FDI with a scant 0.1-percent gain.

Last week, the MOC announced that FDI in May improved with a 7.6-percent year-on-year gain, but five-month growth of 1.3 percent remained weak.

The figures may be a testament to the closing of investment opportunities in China rather than the progress in opening-up that officials have been promoting, adding internal motivation to the pressures from abroad.

But more of both may be needed to turn the FDI numbers around.

“China is not experiencing any great leap in market opening. Call this a tiny hop, at most,” Scott Kennedy said.

By Kamran Reza Chowdhury

The opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party said Monday that the health of its imprisoned chief, former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, had deteriorated to the point she could no longer walk by herself.

BNP officials questioned why the government had denied permission for Zia, 72, to seek treatment at her preferred United Hospital, a private facility in Dhaka. Earlier this month, BNP officials reported that she had suffered a mild stroke in prison, where she was sentenced four months ago on corruption charges.

“What we have come to know is that her condition worsened. She cannot walk without support from others. We are worried about her,” Khandaker Mosharraf Hossain, a former minister and member of the BNP’s top standing committee, told BenarNews on Monday night.

He accused the government of covering up the truth about Zia’s health since she was convicted on Feb. 8 and sentenced to five years in prison. Her conviction effectively disqualified Zia from contending in Bangladesh’s next general election, due to take place sometime in December.

“We repeatedly urged the government to allow her to get treatment at the United Hospital where she had been treated before. But the government has not been listening to our demand,” Hossain said. “If any harm is done to her, the government must shoulder the responsibility.”

Refuting BNP’s statement, Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal said Zia was in good health but had refused treatment from two of the best hospitals in Bangladesh – Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University (BSMMU) Hospital and the Combined Military Hospital (CMH) – which are both public.

He said she wanted to be taken to United Hospital so doctors could determine that she needed to leave the country for special care.

Khan also challenged BNP’s report on Zia’s condition.

“She has been in very good health. Her blood pressure and sugar level are quite normal,” he told BenarNews. “Her party men have been making false claims that she cannot walk by herself.

“I sent the inspector general of prisons to see Zia to ask if she would take treatment at CMH or BSMMU. She rejected the offer,” he said.

Syed Iftekhar Uddin, the inspector general of prisons, is a physician.

“Her motive is clear. If allowed to go to United Hospital, her doctors would suggest the she must be sent abroad for treatment. The doctors at BSMMU or CMH are quite capable of treating Zia,” Khan said.

Family visits

On Saturday, 20 family members spent two hours with Zia at the old jail on Nazimuddin Road in Dhaka where she is the only prisoner. The jail is guarded by police and members of the Rapid Action Battalion, an elite force that Zia created while serving as prime minister.

Meanwhile, BNP Secretary-General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir and other leaders were denied access by prison officials.

After speaking with family members, Alamgir on Sunday told reporters about Zia’s health.

“What we heard from them cannot but make us worried. Her condition deteriorated further. Now, she cannot walk without support from others,” Alamgir said.

On Monday, BNP Senior Joint Secretary Ruhul Kabir Rizvi discussed Zia’s need for special care.

“The United Hospital has the facilities to do x-rays of the metallic plate fitted into Zia’s knees,” Rizvi said, adding that its CT scanner and MRI machine met the highest standards.

“Her personal physicians suggested getting treatment from United Hospital,” he said, adding that current Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was treated at the private Square Hospital when she was imprisoned in 2007 and 2008.

Prison rules do not allow for treatment at private hospitals, Khan said.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani on Monday conferred on the two countries’ relations as well as regional issues.

In a phone conversation, Rouhani congratulated Sheikh Tamim on Eid al-Fitr, marking the holy month of Ramadan, and expressed the hope that Tehran and Doha could take the best advantage of the opportunities for fostering business and economic relations.

He also went on to praise the Qatari government and people’s resistance against pressures, threats and unjust siege and said, “The Islamic Republic of Iran believes that the imposed siege on Qatar is unjust, leading to more division and tension among the countries of the region and will do its best to help and cooperate with the Qatari government and people, and contribute to regional stability.”

Stressing that Tehran’s policy is to interact and negotiate with the countries of the region to end the disputes to establish stability and security in the entire region, he added, “We consider adventurous policies of some countries in the region incorrect and believe that the continuation of this process will undoubtedly deteriorates the situation, including in Palestine, Syria and Yemen.”

“Today, the people of Palestine, especially the residents of Gaza, are under a lot of pressure and are attacked by the usurper Zionist Regime every day, and Muslims collectively supporting them can help alleviate their pains,” the Iranian president went on to say.

According to official website of the president, Rouhani also emphasized that the Yemeni crisis has no military solution and all countries must help establish stability and security in the country and the region, describing the recent invasion on Al-Hudaydah Port as causing human catastrophe in Yemen.

“Continuation of these conflicts puts the poor people of Yemen under tremendous pressure and it is everybody’s duty to help these oppressed people”.

He also emphasized regional consultations between the two countries and strengthening of bases of cooperation and collaboration to serve common interests.

The Emir of Qatar, for his part, felicitated Eid al-Fitr to the Iranian nation and government.

As regards bilateral ties, he said, “Long-standing relations between Iran and Qatar are developing on a daily basis and we are determined to further deepen these relations in all fields of mutual interest and I will personally follow up on the process of this development.”

Sheikh Tamim went on to praise the Iranian government and nation’s stances on the issue of the siege of Qatar and said, “We believe that all disputes in the region can only be possible through dialogue and no country can impose its views on other countries.”

Qatar supports the Palestinian nation, he said, adding, “We support the Palestinian people’s resistance and will continue this policy.”

He also wished Iran national football team’s success in the 2018 FIFA World Cup underway in Russia.

By Jose Torres Jr.

Leading church figures in the Philippines have expressed dismay and anger at reports that Catholic priests are arming themselves following the slaying of several members of the clergy in recent months.

Bishop Pablo Virgilio David of Kalookan said he was “very disappointed”, adding that priests who want to carry a gun for protection should leave the priesthood and join the police or military.

“We don’t even have to dwell on the morality of it. It is unpriestly, to say the least,” said the prelate following reports that some priests in the southern province of Laguna are secretly acquiring firearms following the killings of three priests and the wounding of another in the past six months.

Bishop David, however, said the report that came out in a national daily on June 17 might be “fake news” that was meant to provoke negative reactions against priests.

“It rubs salt in the already painful wound caused by the brutal murder of our brother priests,” said the prelate, who is vice-president of the Philippine bishops’ conference.

The bishop, however, said that if the report was true, the priests who decided to carry firearms need “serious counseling.”

Archbishop Romulo Valles of Davao, president of the bishops’ conference, has earlier rejected the idea of priests arming themselves.

“We are men of God, men of the church, and it is part of our ministry to face dangers, to face deaths if one may say that way,” he said in an interview.

Father Jerome Secillano, executive secretary of the public affairs committee of the bishops’ conference, said the church’s position is clear, but he added that priests who want to carry guns have to get permission from their bishop.

“They belong to a diocese, which is a juridically independent territory headed by a bishop. The bishop, in his wise and prudent judgment, is juridically responsible for what he does with his priests,” said Father Secillano.

He said it is “inappropriate and unbecoming” for priests, who are “preachers of the Word and not gun-toting law enforcers” to carry firearms.

“They are peacemakers and not enablers of violence,” said Father Secillano.

Learn martial arts instead

Another church leader said instead of arming themselves, priests can learn martial arts like karate for self-defense.

“You also have to defend yourself,” said Archbishop Rolando Tirona of Caceres, adding that learning these skills should only be a preventive measure.

“Priests cannot be like Superman or Spiderman wherein they will be there where there is trouble,” said the prelate in jest.

Father Edwin Gariguez of the social action secretariat of the bishops’ conference, said a priest needs to be careful “and learning martial arts is one way of protecting oneself.”

He said arming priests, however, “contradicts the very meaning of the priesthood, which is a life of total self-giving love, and a nonviolent engagement in peace building.”

“A priest should be ready to die a martyr’s death in defense of the rights of the poor, in defense of what is right and just. Self-defense cannot justify the act of counter-violence,” Father Gariguez added.

Philippine National Police chief Oscar Albayalde last week said he is willing to help priests with the legal means to arm themselves if they request it.

He said that priests could arm themselves for self-protection as long as they acquired guns and permits legally and learned how to handle weapons correctly.

“There will be a feeling of added security on their part if they have firearms, legally licensed [guns],” he said.

“We will assist them to go through the [licensing] process for them to feel safe,” he said even as he assured the public that there is no cause for alarm over the killings of priests.

The Libyan National Army has reached the last pockets of extremist resistance against LNA forces in the eastern city of Derna, arresting Osama bin Laden’s former driver Soufian bin Qamou, informed sources said.

The sources said the LNA will question bin Qamou at the headquarters of Commander Khalifa Haftar in Rajmeh, which lies outside the eastern city of Benghazi.

Bin Qamou, a high-ranking al-Qaeda official, had worked as a driver for bin Laden in Sudan and has been involved in several terrorist attacks and confrontations with the LNA.

Also Sunday, LNA spokesman Ahmed al-Mesmari said fighter jets carried out strikes on bases and gatherings for terrorist groups in the area of operations between Ras Lanuf and the outskirts of the city of Sirte.

Meanwhile, Ibrahim Jadhran, the head of militias that have attacked Libya’s oil crescent, claimed that the key oil port terminals remained functional under the legitimacy of the Government of National Accord led by Fayez al-Sarraj, and the National Oil Corporation.

In a televised address, Jadhran reiterated his accusations against the LNA and Haftar of backing “terrorism.”

He again called on the international community and the Libyan tribes in the eastern coastal region on forming a committee and visit the oil crescent area to corroborate his claims.

But GNA’s finance minister, Osama Hammad, made sure to distance Sarraj’s government from Jadhran’s claims, saying the oil crescent region had come under a terrorist attack that targeted the Libyan people’s resources and their only source of income.

The NOC said storage tank 12 in Ras Lanuf had been “significantly damaged” in fighting on Thursday, when Jathran’s forces stormed it in addition to the oil port of Es Sidr.

It announced an initial production loss of 240,000 barrels per day (bpd), which it said was expected to rise to 400,000 bpd if the ports stayed shut.

“Further damage to these sites could have a huge impact on the Libyan oil sector and the national economy,” the NOC warned.

Original source

A new analysis by an international team of scientists led by IIASA shows that low carbon investments will need to markedly increase if the world is to achieve the Paris Agreement aim of keeping global warming well below 2°C.

The authors find that a fundamental transformation of the global energy system can be achieved with a comparatively modest increase in overall investments. However, a radical shift of investments away from fossil fuels and toward renewables and energy efficiency is needed, including dedicated investments into measures to achieve the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

As part of the Paris Agreement in 2015, many countries defined Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) designed to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The study confirms that current incentives like the NDCs will not provide sufficient impetus for the “pronounced change” in investment portfolios that are needed to transform the energy system.

To keep global temperature rise to 1.5-2°C, investments in low carbon energy and energy efficiency will likely need to overtake investments in fossil fuels as early as 2025 and then grow far higher. The low carbon and energy efficiency “investment gaps” calculated by the researchers are striking. To meet countries’ NDCs, an additional US$130 billion of investment will be needed by 2030, while to achieve the 2°C target the gap is US$320 billion and for 1.5°C it is US$480 billion. These investment figures represent more than a quarter of total energy investments foreseen in the baseline scenario, and up to half in some economies such as China and India.

The researchers point out that energy system transformation investments to reduce greenhouse gases are an order of magnitude greater than those required to meet other SDGs, such as for energy access, clean water, air pollution, food security, and education.

“We know that limiting global temperatures to well below 2°C demands that renewables and efficiency scale up rapidly, but few studies have calculated the energy investment needs for a fundamental system transformation, at least not with an eye toward 1.5°C and using multiple scientific modelling frameworks running side-by-side,” said IIASA researcher and lead author of the study David McCollum.

The six scenario modelling tools used by the researchers, so-called integrated assessment models, are often employed to evaluate the costs, potential, and consequences of different energy, climate, and human development futures over the medium-to-long term. In this case the researchers collaborated within the framework of the Horizon 2020 project “Linking Climate and Development Policies – Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing (CD-LINKS)”. The project brings together leading international research organisations to explore national and global transformation strategies for climate change and their linkages to a range of sustainable development objectives.

“This is the first scientific study to conduct a systematic and detailed analysis of the energy investment needs for futures including the very ambitious target of 1.5°C. We find that a 1.5C investment strategy will be quite different from one to reach 2°C. Particularly investments into energy transmission and storage as well as for renewables and efficiency would need to be scaled up more rapidly for reaching 1.5°C. On the other hand both targets (1.5°C and 2°C) will mean that upstream investments into coal extraction and unabated fossil power generation without carbon capture and storage will need to scale down rapidly to avoid further lock-in of the system into fossil fuel infrastructure,” said IIASA Energy Program Director Keywan Riahi.

Outputs of this analysis provided crucial scientific underpinning for a methodology developed by and for the banking industry to improve their understanding of climate change, how it could impact business and how to better manage climate-related risks. The researchers are hopeful that their findings will be of use to national and global policy analysts and policymakers, as well as those in the private sector, working in the areas of energy, climate change and sustainability over the next several years.

“It’s important for professionals in the finance sector to be aware how much more investment in low carbon solutions is needed if the world is to meet the Paris targets. The NDC pledges are a step in the right direction, though much deeper changes in the energy investment portfolio are clearly necessary,” said Elmar Kriegler, vice chair of the research domain “Sustainable Solutions” at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and one of the coauthors of the paper.

Many of the world’s largest economies have already agreed to place low carbon investments high on their priority lists. For example, as part of the recent G20 Hamburg Climate and Energy Action Plan for Growth, countries agreed “to create an enabling environment that is conducive to making public and private investments consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement as well as with the national sustainable development priorities and economic growth”, thus reiterating an earlier agreement to mobilize US$100 billion per year for mitigation actions in developing countries.

“Our work demonstrates that support on the order of US$100 billion would go a considerable way toward closing, maybe even completely cover, the low-carbon investment gap for developing countries; however, considerably up-scaled capital flows will be needed globally to meet the Paris Agreement targets. On top of that, developing countries will likely need support to cover the investment needs of other SDG targets, specifically energy access, clean water, air pollution, education and food security. Our study shows that climate change mitigation can have significant implications for the investments in these areas, on the order of tens to hundreds of billions” said McCollum.

This month Saudi Arabia will put an end to its ban on women driving, opening the way for millions of new drivers to navigate a country three times bigger than Texas. While the policy shift provides relief to women who lacked freedom of mobility, the long-term effects of ending the ban are far from clear and will present the Saudi government with several policy challenges, according to an issue brief by experts at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.

“Women Driving in Saudi Arabia: Ban Lifted, What Are the Economic and Health Effects?” was co-authored by Jim Krane, the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies at the Baker Institute, and Farhan Majid, the institute’s L.E. and Virginia Simmons Fellow in Health and Technology Policy. The brief explores key variables and factors such as the potential number of new drivers — some 6 million women, 65 percent of the female driving-age population, could obtain licenses — and how that influx will affect oil demand, traffic congestion, pollution, labor demand, vehicle sales and public health.

“Driving in Saudi Arabia has long been a male-only preserve, and one in which chaotic traffic and risky habits combined to render the kingdom’s roadways among the deadliest in the world,” the authors wrote. “Allowing women to drive in Saudi Arabia represents a major achievement in social freedom and mobility for millions of women in the kingdom, although the lifting of the ban was preceded by arrests of more than a dozen activists, mainly women who had protested the ban on driving. For social scientists, the sudden addition of millions of new drivers of a single gender to a country’s roadways provides a unique natural experiment for the study of gender effects on driving behavior, energy demand and public health.”

The long-run outcomes of Saudi Arabia’s policy change, which goes into effect June 24, are anything but clear, the authors said. “The lifting of the ban appears likely to improve access to child care and health care and reduce high levels of female unemployment and gender segregation in the kingdom,” the authors wrote. “Oil demand and car sales appear likely to rise. Some foreign laborers will depart. Effects on road safety could go either way.”

The authors concluded, “Adding millions of new drivers into a chaotic and congested road network, one of the world’s deadliest, will undoubtedly bring unnecessary tragedy. Saudi policymakers have taken a bold and long-overdue step in lifting the ban. One hopes that the Saudi government launches complementary policy changes that address driving habits that have made the kingdom such a dangerous place to operate a vehicle.”

Scientists have been able to prove the existence of small black holes and those that are super-massive but the existence of an elusive type of black hole, known as intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs) is hotly debated. New research coming out of the Space Science Center at the University of New Hampshire shows the strongest evidence to date that this middle-of-the-road black hole exists, by serendipitously capturing one in action devouring an encountering star.

“We feel very lucky to have spotted this object with a significant amount of high quality data, which helps pinpoint the mass of the black hole and understand the nature of this spectacular event,” said Dacheng Lin, a research assistant professor at UNH’s Space Science Center and the study’s lead author. “Earlier research, including our own work, saw similar events, but they were either caught too late or were too far away.”

In their study, published in Nature Astronomy, researchers used satellite imaging to detect for the first time this significant telltale sign of activity. They found an enormous multiwavelength radiation flare from the outskirts of a distant galaxy. The brightness of the flare decayed over time exactly as expected by a star disrupting, or being devoured, by the black hole. In this case, the star was disrupted in October 2003 and the radiation it created decayed over the next decade. The distribution of emitted photons over the energy depends on the size of the black hole. This data provides one of the very few robust ways to weight, or determine the size of, the black hole.

Researchers used data from a trio of orbiting X-ray telescopes, NASA’s Chandra X-ray Observatory and Swift Satellite as well as ESA’s XMM-Newton, to find the multiwavelength radiation flares that helped identify the otherwise uncommon IMBHs. The characteristic of a long flare offers evidence of a star being torn apart and is known as a tidal disruption event (TDE). Tidal forces, due to the intense gravity from the black hole, can destroy an object – such as a star – that wanders too close. During a TDE, some of the stellar debris is flung outward at high speeds, while the rest falls toward the black hole. As it travels inward, and is ingested by the black hole, the material heats up to millions of degrees and generates a distinct X-ray flare. According to the researchers, these types of flares, can easily reach the maximum luminosity and are one of the most effective way to detect IMBHs.

“From the theory of galaxy formation, we expect a lot of wandering intermediate-mass black holes in star clusters,” said Lin. “But there are very, very few that we know of, because they are normally unbelievably quiet and very hard to detect and energy bursts from encountering stars being shredded happen so rarely.”

Because of the very low occurrence rate of such star-triggered outbursts for an IMBH, the scientists believe that their discovery implies that there could be many IMBHs lurking in a dormant state in galaxy peripheries across the local universe.

Researchers who’ve analyzed ancient mitochondrial (mt)DNA isolated from a 22,000-year-old panda found in Cizhutuo Cave in the Guangxi Province of China–a place where no pandas live today–have revealed a new lineage of giant panda. The report, published in Current Biology, shows that the ancient panda separated from present-day pandas 144,000 to 227,000 years ago, suggesting that it belonged to a distinct group not found today.

The newly sequenced mitochondrial genome represents the oldest DNA evidence from pandas.

“Using a single complete mtDNA sequence, we find a distinct mitochondrial lineage, suggesting that the Cizhutuo panda, while genetically more closely related to present-day pandas than other bears, has a deep, separate history from the common ancestor of present-day pandas,” said Qiaomei Fu from the Chinese Academy of Sciences. “This really highlights that we need to sequence more DNA from ancient pandas to really capture how their genetic diversity has changed through time and how that relates to their current, much more restricted and fragmented habitat.”

Very little has been known about pandas’ past, especially in regions outside of their current range in Shaanxi province or Gansu and Sichuan provinces. Evidence suggests that pandas in the past were much more widespread, but it’s been unclear how those pandas were related to pandas of today.

In the new study, the researchers used sophisticated methods to fish mitochondrial DNA from the ancient cave specimen. That’s a particular challenge because the specimen comes from a subtropical environment, which makes preservation and recovery of DNA difficult.

The researchers successfully sequenced nearly 150,000 DNA fragments and aligned them to the giant panda mitochondrial genome reference sequence to recover the Cizhutuo panda’s complete mitochondrial genome. They then used the new genome along with mitochondrial genomes from 138 present-day bears and 32 ancient bears to construct a family tree.

Their analysis shows that the split between the Cizhutuo panda and the ancestor of present-day pandas goes back about 183,000 years. The Cizhutuo panda also possesses 18 mutations that would alter the structure of proteins across six mitochondrial genes. The researchers say those amino acid changes may be related to the ancient panda’s distinct habitat in Guangxi or perhaps climate differences during the Last Glacial Maximum.

The findings suggest that the ancient panda’s maternal lineage had a long and unique history that differed from the maternal lineages leading to present-day panda populations. The researchers say that their success in capturing the mitochondrial genome also suggests that they might successfully isolate and analyze DNA from the ancient specimen’s much more expansive nuclear genome.

“Comparing the Cizhutuo panda’s nuclear DNA to present-day genome-wide data would allow a more thorough analysis of the evolutionary history of the Cizhutuo specimen, as well as its shared history with present-day pandas,” Fu said.

Sharks are missing from most coral reefs near where humans are fishing – even in protected areas.

This stark finding is revealed by one of the World’s largest ever studies of coral reef fish.

Sharks, and other reef predators such as large snappers, were found in just over a quarter – 28 per cent – of the scientists’ observations and were hardly seen at all at reefs where human pressure, through fishing or pollution, is high.

The research, which involved an international team of 37 scientists and which looked at almost 1,800 tropical coral reefs around the world, provides vital evidence on the most effective ways to protect fish populations.

Researchers used a new way of measuring the effects people are having on fish on the world’s reefs. The ‘human gravity’ scale calculates factors such as human population size, distance to reefs, and the transport infrastructure on land – which can determine reefs’ accessibility to fishermen and markets.

Where human gravity was high, the probability of encountering a top predator dropped to almost zero (less than 0.005). This scarcity is regardless of whether there are protections in place, such as ‘no-take’ marine reserves or restrictions on fishing equipment.

However, there is some good news for sharks. The study showed that the number of top predators in large remote marine reserves in areas with very low human pressures are much higher – more than quadruple the numbers found in remote lightly fished unprotected areas.

Lancaster University’s Professor Nick Graham, who surveyed reefs around the Chagos Islands, Maldives, Seychelles, Papua New Guinea, and the Great Barrier Reef said: “Large predatory fish such as sharks were extremely rare under any form of management where human influences were high.

“However, it is in protected areas located where human pressures are generally low that sharks are most commonly found. Clearly these remote protected areas are important for shark conservation.”

The research was not able to pinpoint why sharks do better in remote reserves, however the market value of fins make sharks particularly vulnerable to fishing. In addition, scientists believe the size of reserves in heavily fished areas are likely to be too small to protect sharks as they have large hunting ranges that likely expose them to fishing when they stray outside reserves.

The study also reveals that people are profoundly degrading communities of fish on coral reefs. Marine reserves located in remote areas with little human pressure have more than four times as many fish compared to reserves near highly fished areas.

However, the research shows that although those reserves within areas of high human pressure are relatively depleted, they play a vital conservation role, containing around five times as many fish as openly fished areas under similar human pressure.

“We showed that reef fish communities are greatly diminished inside and outside protected areas where human influences are greatest. Although somewhat depleted relative to pristine reefs, marine reserves in high human pressure areas can have a lot more fish than openly fished reefs,” said Professor Graham.

Professor Josh Cinner, lead author from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, in Australia, said: “We found the greatest difference in fish biomass between openly fished areas and marine reserves was in locations with medium to high human pressure. This means that, for most fisheries species, marine reserves have the biggest bang where human pressures are medium to high.”

Political, cultural and ethical contexts limit the kinds of protection strategies that can be used on different coral reefs. Although the study reveals no-take reserves to be the best form of protection, other measures are also found to be beneficial.

Dr Christina Hicks, of Lancaster University and co-author of the study, said: “Other forms of fisheries management also had a role to play, for example restrictions on the types of fishing gears permitted, or controls on who could fish where. The amount of fish in these areas was greater than openly fished areas, though not as high as protected areas.”

“The study highlights how a diversity of conservation and management approaches are necessary under differing human pressures to maintain fish communities and key species.”

The research is detailed in the paper ‘The gravity of human impacts mediates coral reef conservation gains’, which is published by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS).