The mouth of today’s crocodilians inspires fear and awe, with their wide gape and the greatest known bite force in the vertebrate animal kingdom. However, this apex predator of today and its modus of attack (its mouth) had humble beginnings.

The very earliest crocodilians were very different to the beasts we know well today, they were much smaller bodied, slender and had longer legs. It is speculated that they led a much different lifestyle to the crocodiles we all know and fear today.

A new study by a team of international experts, led by University of Witwatersrand PhD candidate Kathleen Dollman and Professor Jonah Choiniere published today in the American Museum Novitates, endeavoured to further explore the mouth of one of the earliest occurring and least understand groups of crocodilians, the shartegosuchids.

In 2010, Choiniere was a part of a field team working in the Late Jurassic (±160 mya) exposures in the western Gobi in Mongolia, when he found the fossil of a small snout of a shartegosuchid. This work was co-authored by researchers based at the American Museum of Natural History, the George Washington University and the Institute for Vertebrate Palaeontology and Palaeoanthropology.

The snout was later CT scanned at the American Museum of Natural History, exposing an unusual, closed secondary palate. Crocodilians are one of only a few groups of animals that evolve a completely closed, bony secondary palate (along with turtles and mammals). A closed secondary palate has many biological implications for crocodilians, including breathing whilst under water and reinforcing the skull to allow for their incredible bite force.

This study showed that these early crocodilians, the shartegosuchids, are important because they evolved a completely closed secondary palate much earlier than previously thought. This is an interesting example of convergent evolution, whereby a similar feature evolves independently in two completely unrelated groups. The advent of a convergent evolutionary event allows scientists to test questions about why that feature evolved and even the function of that feature which in this case is the first step in understanding the purpose of a closed secondary palate in crocodilians.

“I was surprised to find that there were many features in the palate and snout that were completely different between shartegosuchids and extant crocodilians,” says Dollman. Shartegosuchids have a thickened and sculptured palate together with a tall and short rostrum, whereas extant crocodilians have a smooth palate with a long and broad rostrum.

“We would expect to see the same palatal structures and snout shapes in both shartegosuchids and extant crocodiles if they were using it for similar functions and had evolved a closed palate for similar reasons,” says Dollman. “The observed differences tell us that shartegosuchids likely had predation practices to which there is no modern analogue in crocodilians”.

“It’s been nearly 10 years since we collected this fossil after driving 5 days across the Gobi Desert,” said Choiniere, “and I am delighted that it’s formed a part of Kathleen’s PhD.”

UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, urged on Monday the United States to prioritize family unity and the best interests of children as it implements new border management policies along the US-Mexico border.

“There are effective ways to ensure border control without putting families through the lasting psychological trauma of child-parent separation,” UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi said.

“UNHCR stands ready to support the United States in implementing humane and secure alternatives,” Grandi added.

Growing numbers of families in Central America have been forced in recent years to flee extraordinary, unchecked violence including murder, rape, abduction and forced recruitment of children into gangs. These families have been seeking protection in countries throughout the region.

UNHCR said it continues to call on governments to work together to address the root causes in Central America and at the same time ensure safe haven for families fleeing life-threatening violence and persecution.

The Sri Lankan boating industry is expected to generate USD 100 million worth of business this year as against USD 97 million recorded in 2017. In addition to this, under the national strategy of the boating industry, it is expected to generate USD 250 million worth of business by 2020 from this sector, said Boat Building Technology Improvement Institute Sri Lanka, Managing Director Gamini B. Herath. He expressed these views speaking at a press conference held to announce the upcoming Boat Show and Boating Festival 2018.

Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade, Malik Samarawickrama also speaking at the event said that the government is setting up boating facilities in Mirissa and Koggala areas to further boost industry activities and expressed hope that these two facilities will be operational very soon.

The sixth edition of South Asia’s most focused and the largest international Boat Show and Boating festival 2018 will be held from October 26-28 at the Galle Yacht Marina of the Port of Galle. This event is being organized by the Boat Building Technology Development Institute and Sri Lanka Export Development Board in association with the Ministry of Development Strategies and International Trade, Ministry of Industry and Commerce and Ministry of Ports and Shipping.

The main objective of the festival is to showcase Sri Lanka’s capabilities in recreational boating and yachting , nautical tourism, boat building and related services for exports and local markets.This year’s event will comprise 80 stalls which include 60 indoor stalls and 20 outdoor display slots and on water display of yachts and boats as well.

The exhibition will also see the participation of large number of buyers and visitors, boating enthusiasts, and industry professionals from countries such as India, Singapore, Seychelles, the Maldives, South Korea, Belgium, Middle East, Germany, Holland, and UK.

With a view to attracting the younger age groups towards boating, in addition to the boat and ship building sector, water sports events geared to the younger generation including wake boarding, water skiing, jet ski racing, wind surfing, try a boat event run by sailing clubs, fashion show linked to a nautical theme, classic car rally and display, Sri Lanka cultural display especially those linked to the sea, events for school children, nautical tourism, ocean academy, sun and sand festivals will be added.

European Union’s Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström together with Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Trade Minister of Australia Steven Ciobo on Monday officially launched negotiations for a comprehensive and ambitious trade agreement between the EU and Australia in the Australian capital of Canberra.

The aim of the negotiations is to remove barriers to trade in goods and services, create opportunities for small and large companies, as well as setting ambitious rules in line with other trade agreements of the EU, contributing to shape global trade.

The opening of talks with Australia is part of the EU agenda for open and fair trade. It follows the conclusion of negotiations with Japan last year and Mexico this past spring, as well the entry into force of the EU-Canada trade agreement in September of last year. The future agreement between the EU and Australia will further consolidate the EU’s engagement in the Asia-Pacific region.

Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström said, “I look forward to adding Australia to our ever-expanding circle of like-minded trade partners. In challenging times, it is heartening to see that Australia shares our commitment to a positive trade agenda, and to the idea that good trade agreements are a win for both sides. The result of our negotiations will be an agreement that offers clear benefits for both the EU and Australia. It will boost economic opportunity for businesses, both big and small, and create jobs.”

Following the announcement, the first formal round of talks between the respective sides’ teams of negotiators will take place in Brussels from July 2 to 6.

Australia is one of the world’s fastest-growing developed economies. It recently negotiated the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) with 10 other countries in the Pacific region. The future EU-Australia agreement will let European companies compete on a level playing-field with businesses from those countries with which Australia already has trade agreements.

The EU is already Australia’s second biggest trade partner. Bilateral trade in goods between the EU and Australia has risen steadily in recent years, reaching almost €48 billion last year. The sectors which make up the bulk of EU exports to Australia are transport equipment, machinery and appliances, chemicals, food, and services. Bilateral trade in services is around €28 billion. The agreement could increase trade in goods between the two partners by over a third.

The United States has halted an upcoming war games exercise with South Korea that was slated for later this summer.

Consistent with President Donald J. Trump’s commitment to North Korea and in concert with South Korea, the United States military has suspended all planning for Ulchi Freedom Guardian, this August’s defensive war game, Dana W. White, chief Pentagon spokesperson, said in a statement.

“We are still coordinating additional actions,” she said. “No decisions on subsequent war games have been made.”

There will be a meeting on this issue at the Pentagon later this week with the defense secretary, secretary of state and the national security advisor, she said. “There is no impact on Pacific exercises outside of the Korean Peninsula.”

Ulchi Freedom Guardian is an annual U.S.-South Korean command and control exercise that began in 1976 and is designed to enhance readiness, protect the region and maintain stability on the Korean Peninsula. Last year, about 17,500 U.S. service members took part, as well as participants from Australia, Canada, Colombia, Denmark, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and New Zealand.

Russians, especially those living east of the Urals, have long been worried about Chinese economic penetration which includes taking water from Lake Baikal, mining gold and coal, and even opening Chinese factories in places where Russian ones have ceased to operate.

But now there is a new worry: the sell-off of much of the forested land to China, Beijing’s harvesting of almost all of it, and a looming environmental disaster as a result of the destruction of animal habitats and drainage systems, something compounded by Moscow’s recent announcement that it lacks the money to fight fires in forests that are left.

The Chelyabinsk news agency reports that the Chinese role is especially troubling and is receiving more attention as a result of a film by writer Pavel Pashkov of the Russia Taiga expedition showing what is going on (lentachel.ru/news/2018/06/14/prodali-kitaytsam-ves-sibirskiy-les.html reposted at kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5B26AC0754996).

The basic conclusion Pashkov reaches is that “practically all the forest business now belongs to the Chinese Peoples Republic” rather than to anyone or any firm within the Russian Federation.   “In fact, he says, “Siberia has become a raw materials supplier for China” and that means, he suggests, that “de facto Siberia already belongs to China.”

His investigation shows, the writer says, that the Chinese not only own the forests but have created a completely Chinese processing system so that few if any Russians in the region benefit. Not surprisingly, Pashkov says, “the population of Siberia is categorically against this Chinese advance and against the wholesale cutting down of the forests.”

Tragically, he continues, the Russian authorities “prefer to keep quiet about the problem and to ignore the opinion of the citizenry.” They simply pocket the money the Chinese pay and look away. They don’t even take action when Chinese firms and tourists push Russians out of the way near Lake Baikal.

According to Pashkov, this problem has assumed “threatening proportions.” Moreover, as bad as it is in the Chelyabinsk area, everything suggests that in the Far East of Russia, “the situation is still worse.” (He plans to travel there later this year and produce another film about the destruction of “the unique eco-system” of Russia east of the Urals.

He urges Russians throughout the country to demand Moscow get involved to stop this disaster before it is too late. “If we talk about the defense of Russia’s interests in the situation with regard to Crimea,” Pashkov concludes, “then we should be shouting at the top of our lungs about the Siberian problem,” the Chinese are creating.

While it is unlikely he is going to win his campaign, Pashkov has made a decision which others seeking to change Russian policy are increasingly taking: they are making films that can be shown on line and win support that way, as Aleksey Navalny and others have. At the very least, that strategy ensures that far more people know about a problem that does any other.

Although the prospect of a trade war between US and other economies looms large, the actual confrontation could still be evaded. But even if a trade war does not occur, the world is not off the hook as the US is having another tool in the pipeline which may in the future be wielded against friends and foes alike.

By Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit*

Few other things are making headlines as much as a potential trade war after President Donald Trump declared that the United States would impose tariffs on steel and aluminium from Canada, Mexico, the European Union (EU) and China. Such a move unsurprisingly has created uproar around the world.

The prospect looks grimmer when the trading partners vowed to retaliate. For example, Canada is planning to slap up to 25% tariffs on US$13 billion of American goods targeting steel and whiskey. Mexico’s tariffs are aimed at US steel and agricultural goods. EU’s countermeasures consist of 25% duties on about 200 American products such as motorcycles, cigarette, and bourbon whiskey. As for China, the US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross’ negotiation with Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He in Beijing recently yielded no new agreement.

Looming Trade War

Right after the talk, Beijing on 4 June 2018 warned that if Washington actually slapped tariffs on $50 billion of its exports scheduled to take place later this month, “then all the economic and trade benefits negotiated by both sides are not going to take effect”. In response to the Trump administration’s plan to impose new tariff measures aimed at China’s high-tech manufacturing sectors, Beijing said it would counter with duties on several American products namely autos, soybeans, and airplanes.

As the world is inching closer to a trade war, one should, however, not feel entirely hopeless. Some efforts have been made to turn the tide in a more positive direction. For instance, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire announced after the G7 finance ministers’ and central bank governors’ meeting in Canada: “We still have a few days to take the necessary steps to avoid a trade war between the EU and the US, and to avoid a trade war among G7 members.”

Economists and trade experts wasted no time to strongly oppose a trade war and pointed to evidence that no one would win from such a showdown. Mark Zandi, a chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, posited that taking the Sino-US trade war alone, it would cost 190,000 American jobs. Moreover, Trump’s tariffs triggered anxiety among certain American constituencies, namely wheat growers.

Every year the US produces about 60 million tonnes of wheat with almost half of which are geared for exports. Tariffs on US agricultural products will surely not bode well for these farmers especially when the harvesting season just starts.

The recent interplay suggests that the outcome can be one of these two possibilities ̶ a trade war, or not. But despite scary prospects, such war may not happen. Perhaps Washington and the other countries may manage to evade it with adept diplomacy.

The US may come to realise the non-commercial consequences of its tariff policy such as alienating allies it needs to advance its security or defence cooperation, and hence reverse its course. Perhaps pressure and outcry from American farmers or voters can finally get President Trump’s ear and change his mind. As a result, the world can once again breathe itself a sigh of relief.

If Tariffs Are Bad, Investment Restrictions Are Worse

Suppose a trade war does not occur, the world’s economy is not yet off the hook. Future disruptions can still be caused by the US’ restrictions on international investment between it and other economies. The bipartisan Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernisation Act (FIRRMA)’s two versions were approved by the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee on 22 and 24 May 2018 respectively.

Although some differences between these two bills need to be ironed out, the Act will likely expand the authority of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) – an inter-agency committee mandated to review transactions that could lead to foreign acquisitions of American businesses to determine their effects on the U.S. national security.

In short, FIRRMA will extend the agency’s oversight to cover more kinds of transactions including “investments where a foreign company would not necessarily gain control of a US firm [such as].joint ventures between US and foreign companies, minority stake investments and transactions near military bases or US government facilities”.

This bill was mainly driven by Washington’s desire to prevent Chinese takeovers of American firms and access to US technology as evident by CFIUS’ blocking of the acquisition of an American chipmaker Qualcomm by the Singapore-based Broadcom in March on a national security ground.

However, nothing guarantees that acquisition cases in other industries will not fall under the mechanism’s scrutiny in the future. In short, the entity can come to assess or even block other foreign investment coming from other countries into the US.

Investment War Next?

If Washington begins to block more inward foreign investment, other states may retaliate and the world will witness an investment war which could potentially damage the global economy to a great extent. Because capital is a necessary factor for the broadening and deepening of transnational production networks, this investment showdown will ultimately undermine or disrupt cross-border trade.

In other words, investment must first take place to establish production facilities in several locations to then enable transnational supply chains to function. If capital flows are discouraged due to stricter rules and regulations, it would undermine production networks and trade between Washington and other countries around the world.

Tariff drama aside, the US is having another tool in the pipeline which may in the future be wielded against its friends and foes alike. The world may have to brace itself again for another impact.

*Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit is Deputy Head & Assistant Professor at the Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS), S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

While the East Java gubernatorial election remains one of the most significant regional-level leadership races in Indonesia this year, campaigns had been orderly and free of controversy. Only a few hot-button issues that have plagued other races are present within the region.

By Alexander Raymond Arifianto and Jonathan Chen*

The East Java gubernatorial election can be considered one of the most pivotal races in the 2018 simultaneous local election cycle. The province is the second largest in the country, with a population of 42 million and contributing 14.8 percent to total GDP.

East Java is thus significant both economically and politically, and an important factor amongst candidates positioning themselves for the 2019 Indonesian general election less than a year away. So who are the leading contenders in this race?

The Aspirants

Two candidates are competing to replace Soekarwo, the incumbent governor who has served two consecutive five-year terms. The first one is Saifullah Yusuf, the province’s deputy governor. His running mate is Puti Guntur Soekarno, a granddaughter of Indonesia’s founding president Soekarno.

They are backed by a coalition of parties, including the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) of former president Megawati Soekarnoputri, the National Awakening Party (PKB) affiliated with Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) of Prabowo Subianto and the Islamist Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).

The second one is Khofifah Indar Parawansa, the former minister of Social Affairs under President Joko Widodo. Her running mate is Emil Dardak, the 34-year old former regent of Trenggalek, a rural region in the southern part of the province. The pair is supported by a coalition consisting of the once-ruling Golkar Party, the Democrat Party (PD) of former president Yudhoyono, and the National Mandate Party (PAN) among others.

Popular support for the Saifullah/Puti pair is largely based on personal and familial ties. Saifullah is the grandson of Hasyim Asy’ari, founder of NU, Indonesia’s largest Muslim organisation. Hence, he seeks support largely from NU clerics and Muslims who affiliated themselves with NU, whose membership is approximately two-thirds of the East Java population. Madam Puti and the PDI-P are banking on her family lineage stemming from the Soekarno name to win electoral support in the province.

Meanwhile, the Khofifah/Emil pair generally tends towards emphasising a combination of professional image and Islamic credentials. Madam Khofifah uses her positions as a long-time Head of Muslimat ̶ NU’s women’s wing ̶ to seek support from female Muslim voters. Emil, on his part, touts his business background and experience as Trenggalek regent from 2014 to 2018, during which period he won national recognition as one of the best local executives in Indonesia.

National & Regional Trends

One important insight we gathered from our research in East Java is that national-level political patterns and constellations may not have a direct effect on regional-level elections, given the nature of local politics and rivalries between political parties within similar coalitions.

In East Java, while the Saifullah Yusuf/Puti Guntur Soekarno is officially supported by Gerindra, representatives of the party we spoke to made it clear the party only supports Saifullah as its nominee as East Java governor. It does not support Madam Puti’s appointment to be his running mate, given that she comes from PDI-P.

As such the party does not spend much time and resources in their gubernatorial campaigns, preferring to focus on next year’s presidential election instead. Hence, even though both Gerindra and PDI-P are formally in the same gubernatorial coalition, communication between the two rivals are few and far between.

A similar phenomenon can also be seen in the Khofifah Indah Parawansa/Emil Dardak campaign. The Democrat Party seems not to devote much resources to the campaign, in contrast to the Golkar Party, the pair’s chief sponsor. It seems that the former only supports them because it wants to retain its status as the second largest faction in the East Java legislature. Much of the Democrats’ resources are devoted to the 2019 regional legislative election, not to the gubernatorial election itself.

Identity and Business-Politics Relations

Unlike other local races, identity politics do not play a big role in the East Java gubernatorial election. Since both Saifullah and Khofifah are senior cadres of NU, no ethno-religious issues are expressed during the campaign as NU generally promotes a moderate and tolerant interpretation of Islam.

The influence of conservative Muslim organisations like the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) is relatively minimal in this election. Muslim-based parties like PKS, PAN, and the Crescent and Star Party (PBB) tend to focus their attention on the national legislative and presidential elections rather than the gubernatorial race.

Regarding the relationship between business and politics, our research has shown that business groups are pragmatic and prefer a candidate who supports investment-friendly policies in East Java province, something that Soekarwo – the outgoing governor – had provided during his decade-long tenure as the province’s chief executive. However, neither candidates have provided significant outreach to business groups or demonstrate their commitment towards investment-friendly policies.

It can thus be seen that most business groups are adopting a ‘wait-and-see’ approach and are watching closely for signs from several business conglomerates like property developers Ciputra and Pakuwon Jati Groups, and regional manufacturers like Maspion Group, for cues on which candidate they would support in this election.

Non-controversial Race

The East Java gubernatorial race is considered to be one of the most significant electoral races among this year’s regional executive elections due to its population size and political impact. However, the campaign itself is free from controversy, and in fact, very orderly as most parties and interest groups are devoting their resources toward the 2019 general election.

There are minor contentions such as accusations from the Khofifah/Emir campaign that local civil servants are implicitly backing the Saifullah/Puti campaign, even though they were supposed to be neutral in the race. However, these are a far cry from the controversies that had surrounded the Jakarta gubernatorial elections in 2017.

A recent survey by the large-circulating Kompas daily showed the Khofifah/Emir pair slightly ahead of Saifullah/Puti, with a margin of 48 to 45 percent. The closeness of the margin indicates that the two candidates are in a dead heat, as none of the candidates can distinguish themselves as a clear alternative to their opponent.

*Alexander R Arifianto PhD is a Research Fellow and Jonathan Chen is an Associate Research Fellow with the Indonesia Programme, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. This is part of a series on Indonesia’s simultaneous regional elections.

Pope Francis says gay couples cannot be considered a family. The media know he said this but, with few exceptions, they refused to run this story. The blackout, it is easy to prove, was intentional.

On June 16, Pope Francis spoke to an Italian family association, and following his scripted remarks, he made some unscripted comments. He denounced those couples who screen for abnormalities in the womb, likening the decision to a Nazi-like tactic. “Last century,” he said, “the whole world was scandalized by what the Nazis did to purify the race. Today, we do the same thing but with white gloves.”

The following media outlets covered this story:

AP, UPI, ABC Online, NBC NY, CNN, Chicago Tribune, Hartford Courant, New York Times, Orlando Sentinel, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Portland Press Herald, Sentinel Sun, the Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Post.

In the same spontaneous address, Pope Francis said only heterosexuals can form a family. “It is painful to say this today: People speak of varied families, of various kinds of family,” but “the family [as] man and woman in the image of God is the only one.”

With the exception of CNN and the Wall Street Journal, not one of the media outlets that covered the pope’s remarks on abortion had a word to say about this comment (CNN downplayed its significance). Were it not for a few foreign sources—led by the German media outlet, Deutsche Press-Agentur—most of us would not know of this admission by Pope Francis.

This matters not simply because of media bias, but because of something much more important: the manipulation of public opinion in the run-up to the World Meeting of Families. This Vatican event will take place in Ireland August 22-26. Gay activists are desperately trying to redefine the family to include homosexual couples. Pope Francis has just thrown a monkey wrench into their agenda. This is why the media intentionally decided to censor his remarks.

Kudos to Pope Francis for speaking truth to power, and shame on the media for engaging in a widespread cover-up.

By Conn Hallinan*

As a new, Socialist-led government takes over in Spain, freshly minted Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez faces at least two daunting tasks: 1) cleaning up the wreckage wrought by years of European Union-enforced austerity, and 2) resolving the Catalan crisis exacerbated by Madrid’s violent reaction to last fall’s independence referendum. Unfortunately, his party’s track record is not exactly sterling on either issue.

Sanchez, leader of the Socialist Workers Party (PSOE), patched together parties in Catalonia and the Basque region, plus the leftist Podemos Party, to oust long-time Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of the right-wing People’s Party (PP). But is the telegenic former economics professor up to the job, and will his party challenge the economic program of the EU’s powerful “troika” — the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank, and the European Commission?

The answers to those questions are hardly clear, and in many ways the cross currents and rip tides of Spanish politics still resemble Gerald Brenan’s classic study of the Civil War, The Spanish Labyrinth.

Too Centrist for Comfort

While the issue that brought Rajoy down was corruption — a massive kickback scheme that enriched scores of high-ranking PP members — his party was already weakened by the 2015 election, and he has been forced to rely on the conservative Ciudadanos Party based in Catalonia to stay in power. In short, it was only a matter of time before he fell.

Sanchez promises to address the “pressing social needs” of Spaniards, although he has been vague about what that actually means. But Spain is hurting. While economic growth returned in 2013, unemployment is still at 16.1 percent, and youth joblessness is 35 percent. Rajoy took credit for the economy’s rebound from the massive financial meltdown in 2008, but there’s little evidence that budget cuts and austerity did the trick. The two main engines for growth were cheap oil and a weak currency.

The job growth has mainly been in short term and temp jobs, with lower pay and fewer benefits. That’s not specific to Spain, however. Of the 5.2 million jobs created in the EU between 2013 and 2016, some 2.1 million of them have been short term, “mini” jobs that have been particularly hard on young people. Many continue to live at home with their aging parents, and 400,000 have emigrated to other European countries.

Education, health care, and infrastructure have all deteriorated under a blizzard of budget cuts, and Sanchez will have to address those problems. His party’s record on the economy, however, has been more centrist than social democratic, and the PSOE basically accepts the neo-liberal mantra of tax cuts, deregulation, and privatization. It was PSOE Prime Minister Jose Zapatero who sliced more than $17 billion from the budget in 2010, froze pensions, cut child care funds and home care for the elderly, and passed legislation making it easier to lay off workers.

It was anger at the Socialists over rising unemployment that swept Rajoy and the PP into power in 2011. The PSOE has never recovered from that debacle, dropping from 44 percent of the vote to 24.9 percent today. It has only 84 deputies in the Parliament, just 14 more than Podemos.

When Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias proposed forming a government of the left, Sanchez rejected it and instead appointed all PSOE people to the cabinet. However, he will have to rely on support from the left to stay in power, and there’s no guarantee that it will be there unless the Socialists step away from their centrism and begin rolling back the austerity measures.

Sanchez has a mixed record on leftism vs. centrism. He was ousted from the party’s leadership last year by the PSOE’s right wing when he considered forming an earlier united front of the left. It was the party’s rank and file, angered at the right-wing Socialists, that allowed Rajoy to form a minority government that put him back in power. Still, so far Sanchez has been unwilling to consider the kind of alliance of left parties that has been so successful in Portugal.

A Regional Balancing Act

The new government will also need the support of the two Catalan parties, and that will likely be an uphill slog. The Catalans just elected a government that supports independence, although its president, Quim Torra has called for “talks.”

The current Catalonia crisis was ignited when Rajoy torpedoed a 2006 agreement between the Spanish government and the Catalan government that would have given the province greater local control over its finances and recognized the Catalans’ unique culture. Under the prodding of the PP, the Constitutional Court overturned the agreement and shifted the dispute from the political realm to a legal issue.

At the time, the idea of independence was marginal in Catalonia, but the refusal of Rajoy to even discuss the issue shifted it to the mainstream. “Independentism, which until 2010 was a decidedly minority option in Catalonia, has grown immensely,” according to Thomas Harrington, a Professor of Hispanic Studies at Trinity College, CT.

The Catalans began pressing for a referendum on independence — nearly 80 percent supported holding one — although it was initially seen as non-binding. Even though Podemos did not support the idea of independence, it backed the basic democratic right of the Catalans to vote on the issue. The PSOE, however, was as hard-nosed on the issue as Rajoy and the PP. Not only did the Socialists not support the right of the Catalans to vote, they backed Rajoy’s crackdown on the province (although they eventually decried the violence unleashed on citizens trying to vote during last October’s referendum.)

Some 2.3 million Catalans out of the 5.3 million registered voters went to the polls and overwhelmingly endorsed independence, in spite of the fact that Rajoy sent some 10,000 National Police and Guardia Civil into the province to seize ballots, beat voters, and injure more than 850 people. Legal procedures have been filed against over 700 mayors and elected officials, and the Catalan leadership is either in jail or on the run. While Sanchez said the crackdown was “a sad day for our democracy,” he will have a lot of explaining to do to the Catalan government.

Unlike Rajoy, Sanchez says he wants a dialogue with the Catalans, although he also says he intends to uphold the Spanish constitution, which does not permit secession.

Catalan society is deeply split. The big cities tend to be opposed to independence, as are many trade unions. The left is divided on the issue, but many young people support it. As the Financial Times’ Tobias Buck points out, “The younger generation, who have been schooled in Catalan and have less contact with the rest of Spain than their parents, are among the most enthusiastic backers of independence.”

It is also clear that the brutality of Rajoy’s assault has moved people in that direction, although polls show independence still doesn’t have a majority. But in a sense, that is irrelevant. When almost half the population wants something, that “something” has to be addressed — and if Buck is right about the demographics, time is running out for Madrid.

Sitting on Bayonets

There are other serious constitutional issues that need to be addressed as well. Rural areas are greatly favored over cities. While it takes 125,000 voters in Madrid to elect a representative, in some rural areas it takes as few as 38,000. There is also a need to address Rajoy’s draconian laws against free speech and assembly.

Just how stable Sanchez’s government will be is unclear. He must keep the Basques and the Catalans on board and do enough on the economy to maintain the support of Podemos.

The PP is badly wounded, and the right-wing Ciudadanos Party — the only one that voted against the no confidence resolution that brought down Rajoy — will be looking to fill that vacuum. Ciudadanos calls itself the “center,” but its economic policies are the same as those of the PP, and it is rabidly opposed to separatism. It performed poorly in the last election and in regional elections in Galicia and the Basque region. It did well in the recent Catalan elections, but that is because the Popular Party collapsed and its voters shifted to Ciudadanos.

Sanchez must recognize that the Catalan issue is political, not legal, and that force is not an option. As Napoleon Bonaparte’s Foreign Minister Talleyrand once remarked, “You can do anything you like with bayonets, except sit on them,” summing up the truism that repression does not work in the long run.

*Foreign Policy In Focus columnist Conn Hallinan can be read at dispatchesfromtheedgeblog.wordpress.com and middleempireseries.wordpress.com. 

England claimed an opening game World Cup victory after a double from captain Harry Kane gave them a 2-1 win against Tunisia in Volgograd.

Kane turned in a header in second-half injury time after Tunisia had earlier canceled out his 11th-minute goal with the Group G rivals appearing destined for draw.

England started with vigor in Volgograd, and Kane gave England the lead their early dominance deserved when he turned in a header after Tunisia goalkeeper Mouez Hassen could only palm away a John Stones shot into his path.

That came after England spurned two golden chances in a bright opening five minutes, when Jesse Lingard saw his shot saved and Raheem Sterling somehow turned wide with the goal at his mercy just moments later.

Much had been made of the midge insects invading Volgograd during the day, and England continued their flying start with Henderson testing new keeper Farouk Ben Mustapha, who had replaced the injured Mouez Hassen shortly after the England goal.

Tunisia grew into the game, however, and had a shot through Sassi just before half an hour when Harry Maguire was caught on the ball.

Their breakthrough came in controversial circumstances on 35 minutes, when Kyle Walker was adjudged to have elbowed Fakhreddine Ben Youssef in the box. The Tunisian appeared to make the most of it, but it wasn’t overturned by the VAR and Ferjani Sassi stuck the spot-kick past a diving Jordan Pickford.

England pressed to restore their lead just before half-time, with Lingard hitting the post after he poked the ball past onrushing Tunisia goalkeeper Ben Mustapha.

Kane and Harry Maguire both appeared to be wrestled to the ground during corners in the second half, prompting questions as to why VAR was not being called into more use.

Tunisia started the second-half brightly and seemed set for a memorable draw, but ran out of steam as England pressed in the closing stages.

The pressure paid off when goal king Kane was left unmarked at the back post in injury time and nodded home to give England an opening game win on the banks of the Volga.

(RFE/RL) — U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered the creation of a new U.S. military branch that he says will ensure “American dominance in space.”

Trump unveiled the initiative at a June 18 White House meeting attended by former astronauts and heads of U.S. aerospace companies.

He said U.S. policy in space is a national security issue, adding that he did not want “China and Russia and other countries leading us.”

“When it comes to defending America, it is not enough to merely have an American presence in space,” Trump said in televised remarks. “We must have American dominance in space.”

No details about timing, cost, or composition of the force were released, although Congress was expected to have to pass legislation authorizing a new military branch.

The Federal Reserve Board’s monthly reports on industrial production used to get a fair bit of attention in the business press, but May’s 0.7 percent decline in manufacturing activity seems to have passed largely unnoticed. These data are erratic and subject to large revisions, so this is hardly an end of the world kind of number, but it certainly is not a figure consistent with the investment boom promised by proponents of the tax cut.

It is also consistent with the reported fall in the length of the average workweek in manufacturing reported in the May Employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This decline in hours led to a 0.3 percent decline in the index of aggregate hours for the month.

These are the sort of drops that are expected when there is an unusual weather event like a big snowstorm or a hurricane hitting a major population center. However, there were no obvious events in this category in May, which does raise the possibility that we may be seeing a turning point in manufacturing with the brief upturn over the last couple of years petering out.

This column originally ran in Beat the Press.

This article says “Seattle is struggling to find a path forward to deal with a crisis that’s exploded in recent years.” What is that crisis? An economic boom!

The article says, “unemployment in the county is at 3%, the lowest in the state… Housing is becoming less affordable, leading to more homelessness. At the same time, Washington’s tax laws gave cities few options when it comes to raising funds for more housing. … Those rent increases have been partly driven up by an influx of well-paid tech workers.”

The article focuses heavily on Amazon, noting, “Amazon has about 45,000 employees in the city, where it is it’s largest private employer. Those employees tend to earn good salaries, allowing landlords to bid up the price of scarce housing and causing rental costs across the area to rise.”

By Ryan McMaken*

Suicides are a growing problem in the United States. In a new report released this month by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), the CDC concluded that suicides have increased more than 25 percent between 1999 and 2016.

Unfortunately, there’s very little context offered by most of the articles in the media. Most focus only on the few data points mentioned in the CDC’s press release. The headline about 25% growth tells us little about if the current rate is high or low by historical standards.

But there seemed to be a common tendency in media coverage: in spite of this widespread lack of context, the articles in the media tended to jump immediately to seeking public-policy solutions to the rising suicide rate.

For example, The Los Angeles Times  asked a Virginia physician what might be a cause of the problem. His answer? A lack of “economic assistance.” In other words: too little welfare spending is the problem. National Public Radio, meanwhile, decided that more gun control might help: “American suicide is predominantly a firearm issue” NPR quoted a psychologist as saying. The problem? Too little gun control.

Other efforts to politicize the issue included this attempt to make suicide out to be something that’s affecting women more than men. This article at Health.com points out that suicide rates have been rising faster for women than men over the past 15 years. (Never mind, of course, that the suicide rate for men is four times the suicide rate for women.) But what could be the cause of this rising rate among women? According to the article: “being paid less than men.”

So, basically, whatever your particular political hobbyhorse is, that must be the solution to any suicide problem we have.

Historical Context

In order to gauge the magnitude of this 25% increase in suicides since 1999, we’ll need to look at American suicides over a long time frame. Looking at suicides since 1960, we find it looks like this1:

So, it’s true that the suicide rate has increased by more than 25 percent since 1999. But we might also say that the suicide rate has decreased 6 percent since 1977. Or, we might say that the suicide rate in in the United States is now at a rate that was pretty typical during the 1960s, 1970s, and much of the 1980s.

Surely, none of this is reason to celebrate. We want to see suicide rates decreasing over time. But, if we’re going to spin theories about why the suicide rate is increasing, the fact that women are being paid less than men (presumably for the same work, which isn’t even true) then shouldn’t that be a new thing? Are we to believe now that women were being paid equally to men in 1989, when suicide rates were lower?

Clearly, the incomplete picture being painted by the latest flurry of articles on the matter aren’t telling us much.

Moreover, if we look at suicide rates internationally, we find that the United States is rather unremarkable. So, while we’re to believe that the American welfare-state’s alleged lack of funding may be the cause, or if the presence of guns is the cause, it’s going to require some massaging of the numbers to make the US look like any sort of outlier here. 2

Moreover, a constant theme in the media’s coverage is that economic stagnation or economic misfortune is a likely culprit in causing suicide. This may very well be the case in some places in America. But overall, it’s not at all clear that economic misfortune in general causes suicide. After all, many countries with far, far lower standards of living than the US have lower suicide rates than the US, including Mexico, Peru, Chile, Colombia, Portugal, and Greece. And in a report released last year, the UN concluded that Europe is the region with the world’s highest suicide rate. The lowest regional rate, on the other hand, was found in the “Eastern Mediterranean” region which includes places like Palestine and Syria.3

On the gun issue, of course, any number of countries with far stricter gun control laws than the United States have considerably high suicide rates — such as Japan and Korea.  And when it comes to teenage suicides , the US has an even fewer suicides, comparatively, than suicides overall.

It’s telling, however, that in the overwhelming majority of media coverage on the matter, the assumed solutions to the problem — a problem whose historical uniqueness is being overstated — is assumed to be primarily a matter of public policy.

The narrative seems to be this: you have some suicides? Just pass a law, increase some government spending, or ban some guns. Ignore the financial costs and opportunity costs. Surely that will solve the problem!

Part of this is because this fits into the world view of what both the journalist and the quoted “expert” often believe.

But consider if the range of acceptable opinion on such matters were more broad.

In a 2016 journal article published by the Journals of the American Medical Association, the researchers concluded that church attendance among women is likely to significantly decrease one’s odds of committing suicide. As The Los Angeles Times reported at the time:

Compared with women who never participated in religious services, women who attended any religious service once a week or more were five times less likely to commit suicide…

But, it’s hard to imagine many expert physicians telling CNN that people ought to increase religious devotion as a strategy in avoiding suicide.

Instead, the solution is usually just “pass law X.”

Other possible factors have nothing to do with public policy, either. For instance, people who move to a new home frequently have long shown a greater tendency toward suicide, and “many macrolevel studies have observed an association between aggregate rates of geographical mobility and suicide.”

And, as The Washington Post notes:

[The researchers in a Danish study] focused on a number of negative outcomes including suicide attempts, criminality, psychiatric disorders, drug abuse, and unnatural mortality. Moving during childhood was linked to increased incidence of all these negative outcomes later in life. Moving multiple times in a single year made long-term harms even more likely…

If one is going to try to pin some specific problem in American society related to suicide, this one is as big a culprit as any: the US has a notably high residential mobility rate . Meanwhile, countries where people rarely move, such as Spain and Italy, have remarkably low suicide rates.

This may also show up in regional differences for suicide in the United States. Suicide, after all, is an especially big problem in the western region of the US.

Consider this map:

And then consider this map:

It may be a coincidence, but it may also be that areas with the most rootless and mobile populations create conditions that lead to higher suicide rates.

No one, however, is considering laws that would discourage people from moving from state to state. It’s simply accepted that, even though research suggests moving increases risk of suicide in many cases, it’s a decision best left up to individuals.

But, when it comes to gun control, or more government spending, or passing some new government regulation, then we already know the “solution.”

On the other hand, as Mark Thornton has shown , we could do some good by repealing laws that have long been doing damage. Given the damage that government prohibitions have done in regards to drug abuse — itself blamed as a cause of suicide — leaving people alone to make their own healthcare choices might do a lot of good. But don’t expect CNN to mention that.

About the author:
*Ryan McMaken (@ryanmcmaken) is the editor of Mises Wire and The Austrian. Send him your article submissions, but read article guidelines first. Ryan has degrees in economics and political science from the University of Colorado, and was the economist for the Colorado Division of Housing from 2009 to 2014. He is the author of Commie Cowboys: The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre.

Source:
This article was published by the MISES Institute.

Notes:

• 1. Sources: https://data.oecd.org/healthstat/suicide-rates.htm; https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/statistics/suicide.shtml; https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr66/nvsr66_06.pdf
• 2. https://data.oecd.org/healthstat/suicide
• 3. Note also that foreign-born Americans — which tend to have lower incomes than native born Americans — have lower suicide rates than native-born. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3733100/

A new study published in JAMA Pediatrics shows that since 2003, the use of alternative medicines, such as herbal products and nutraceuticals, among children has doubled. The University of Illinois at Chicago researchers who conducted the study cite an increased use of Omega-3 fatty acids and melatonin among adolescents ages 13 to 18 as the primary driver of the change, despite clinical recommendations against use of such supplements in children.

Use of dietary supplements, of which herbal, non-vitamin alternative medicines are one type, remained high but otherwise stable, with approximately one-third of children using a dietary supplement.

Study author Dima Qato says the widespread use of supplements among children and the increased use of alternative medicines among teens is worrisome.

“Dietary supplements are not required to go through the same FDA regulations and approval process as prescription drugs. As a result, we know very little about their safety and effectiveness, especially in children,” said Qato, assistant professor of pharmacy systems, outcomes and policy at the UIC College of Pharmacy. “Many dietary supplements have also been implicated in adverse drug events, especially cardiovascular, which is a safety concern.”

“We simply do not know if there are any benefits to children that outweigh the potential harms, and this study suggests supplement use is widespread and therefore an important, yet often ignored, public health issue,” she said.

To study supplement use in children, Qato and her colleagues retrospectively analyzed six recent cycles — 2003 to 2004 through 2013 to 2014 — of data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. During the in-person survey, participants responded to a dietary supplement questionnaire.

If participants indicated supplement use within the last 30 days, they were asked to show the interviewers the containers for all supplements. Each supplement was classified as a nutritional product – those that primarily contain vitamins or minerals – or an alternative medicine and further classified by primary use.

In addition to the high prevalence of supplement use, the researchers observed that, when it comes to adolescents, supplement use varied by gender and use patterns may relate to other health issues.

“Adolescents are using supplements to treat common health conditions or adverse effects of prescription medications,” said Qato. “For example, we’ve seen an increase in use of melatonin, which is promoted as having sleep benefits. At the same time, other studies have shown an increase in the use of ADHD medications, which we know are associated with a risk for insomnia.”

The researchers also found use of Vitamin B products and folic acid were most popular among teenage girls. These supplements are promoted as having benefits against depression. For boys, use of Omega-3 fatty acids — which are marketed as having cognitive benefits — and body building supplements were popular.

“This suggests that supplement use among children may be targeting specific ailments, but the fact remains that common use of these products in otherwise healthy kids is potentially dangerous,” Qato said. “Parents should be aware of the dangers, especially as many may be purchasing the supplements for their children. Health care providers working with children, especially pediatricians and pharmacists, should also take note of the prevalence of supplement use in this age group and ask patients and parents about such use regularly.”

Getting a tattoo may have some unexpected complications if your immune system isn’t up to scratch, warn doctors in the journal BMJ Case Reports.

The warning comes after they treated a woman for chronic pain in her left hip, knee and thigh some months after she had been tattooed.

She had been taking drugs to dampen down her immune system for several years after receiving a double lung transplant in 2009.

Her right leg had been tattooed several years earlier, with no ill effects, and she decided to have another on her left thigh.

Immediately after this one, she experienced mild skin irritation, which is not unusual, explain the authors. But 9 days later, she developed pain in her left knee and thigh. Her symptoms were so severe that she needed strong painkillers.

Although her symptoms eased, they were still troubling her 10 months later. So she was referred to a rheumatology clinic, where she was tested for various conditions, the results of which all came back negative.

But a biopsy of her thigh muscle revealed that she had inflammatory myopathy–chronic muscle inflammation. This is often accompanied by muscle weakness and pain.

In many cases, the cause of this isn’t known, and it may arise spontaneously. But in this case the doctors believe that it is likely to have been linked to the tattoo process itself, the effects of which may have been compounded by a compromised immune system.

“While we acknowledge that there is no evidence to definitely prove the causative effect, the timing of onset and the location of the symptoms correlated well with the tattoo application and there were no other identifiable factors to cause the pathology,” they write.

The woman was given physiotherapy to strengthen her thigh muscles, and one year after the start of her symptoms, she began to improve. And after three years, she was pain free.

How the tattooing process might have contributed to the woman’s symptoms isn’t clear. But it is well known that the type of ink or colourant used in tattoos can cause a reaction, say the authors, who point out that tattooing has been associated with various complications, ranging from mild skin irritation to systemic infection.

“The tattoo industry has no regulated or professional body to enhance standards across the UK,” highlight the authors. “In this case, the tattoo application by an unregulated parlour, combined with the patient’s immune suppression could have resulted in the adverse reaction,” they suggest.

Getting a tattoo is becoming increasingly popular, they add, so patients with compromised immune systems should be aware of the potential risks associated with this type of decorative body art.

Many researchers hypothesize that the southern tip of the 1300-km-long San Andreas fault zone (SAFZ) could be the nucleation site of the next major earthquake on the fault, yet geoscientists cannot evaluate this hazard until the location and geometry of the fault zone is documented.

In their new paper for Lithosphere, Susanne Jänecke and colleagues use detailed geologic and structural mapping of the southern 30 km of the San Andreas fault zone in southern California to show that it is a highly faulted volume of rock that is 1-4 km wide and organized as a sheared ladder-like structure in the upper 3-5 kilometers of the earth.

This newly identified Durmid ladder structure is at least 25 km long, has tens of master right-lateral and right-reverse faults along its edges and hundreds of left- and right-lateral cross faults in between. The Durmid ladder structure trends northwest, extends from the well-known main trace of the San Andreas fault (mSAF) on the northeast side to a newly identified East Shoreline fault zone (ESF) on the opposite edge.

Many years of detailed field study validated the team’s 2011 hypothesis about the existence of the East Shoreline strand of the SAFZ northeast of the margin of the Salton Sea, and this paper documents this previously unknown active fault using geophysical and geologic datasets along the entire northeast margin of Coachella Valley, California. The East Shoreline fault, say the authors, probably becomes the Garnet Hills fault, north of Palm Springs, and together they parallel the mSAF for >100 km.

Uplifted, highly folded and faulted Pliocene to Holocene sedimentary rocks, evidence for pervasive shortening, map-scale damage zones, and extremely rapid block rotation indicate that convergence across the Durmid ladder structure of the SAFZ is the smaller, secondary component that accompanies more rapid right-lateral motions. Small amounts of shallow creep and triggered slip regularly produce hairline fractures along the mSAF and Jänecke and colleagues recognize identical features within the ESF and along some cross faults of the Durmid ladder structure.

It is not clear how past earthquakes interacted with this well-organized multi-fault structure, and, notes Jänecke, this makes future behavior difficult to predict. The mSAF was the only active fault considered by the geoscience community in this crucial area prior to our detailed study.

New and published geophysical data sets and drill hole data in Coachella Valley show that the East Shoreline fault is a voluminous fault zone that extends in all three dimensions. It is well-imaged southwest of the mSAF and appears to persist into the subsurface at the southwest edge of a flower structure that may converge and simplify at depth.

In such an interpretation, the ESF is steep, dips northeast, and is a key structure at the basinward edge of an asymmetric flower-like structure identified by Fuis et al. (2017) directly northwest of this study area. Southward, the Durmid ladder structure widens gradually as it bends and interacts with the even wider Brawley Seismic zone. The component of shortening across the southernmost San Andreas fault zone gives way along strike to components of extension in the Brawley Seismic Zone within a defined transition zone. This geometry makes it likely that both fault zones could fail during a single earthquake, as suggested by prior research.

Several-kilometer-wide strike-slip fault zones, like the southern 30 km of the SAFZ, occur along many active faults and underlie metropolitan areas. The 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake in New Zealand revealed that ladder-like fault zones can be enormous (at least 25 km wide and 150 km long) and fail in a piecemeal fashion. The surface-faulting hazards, ground shaking, and cascading ruptures that might arise from interactions among faults in active, voluminous fault zones are not well understood or quantified and much research is needed to mitigate the risk posed by this important type of structure.

Associate Professor Martine Maron, Dr Jeremy Simmonds and Professor James Watson from UQ’s School of Earth and Environmental Sciences say current targets lack the scope required to support the critical services that nature provides.

“Humanity asks a lot of the natural world,” Professor Maron said.

“We need it to purify our water and air, to maintain our soils and to regulate our climate.

“We keep increasing the extent of protected areas – and we need to – but that hasn’t stopped the ongoing loss of natural systems.”

She said the current target of protecting 17 per cent of terrestrial systems isn’t enough to protect all species as well as provide the benefits humanity requires.

“We need to retain enough of the Earth’s natural systems in the right places to preserve healthy watersheds, to store carbon, to protect the last wilderness areas and to maintain human-nature interactions, but at the moment we don’t have specific, area-based targets for all these goals,” she said.

The researchers also want to see urgent reforms into how decisions are made about what is retained and where. “The alteration of many natural systems is often irreversible, and continuing down this path with no end point is utterly irresponsible,” Dr Simmonds said.

He said calls for the conservation of 50 per cent of the planet, or “half Earth” are bold, but may still fall short of what is needed for the integrity of critical systems, like a stable climate.

“When we add these targets up, we’re likely to find that we need much more nature to safeguard both humanity and all the other species that live on the planet,” Dr Simmonds said.

“It’s time to embrace a diverse set of retention targets to limit the ongoing erosion of the nature we rely upon.”

Climate change, pesticides and land use changes alone cannot fully explain the decline in insect populations in Germany. Scientists from the Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB) have now discovered that regions that have experienced a sharp decline in flying insects also have high levels of light pollution.

Many studies already suggest that artificial light at night has negative impacts on insects, and scientists should pay greater attention to this factor when exploring the causes of insect population declines in the future.

The biomass of flying insects has decreased by more than 75 percent – this alarming figure made front page news in autumn 2017. The study, published in 2017, analysed trends in biomass of flying insects in selected protected areas within agricultural landscapes over the last 27 years, and concluded that changes of climate and habitat are to blame for the decline in insect populations. At the same time, they pointed out that these impacts alone are unable to explain this drastic decline.

Light at the wrong time disturbs the balance of ecosystems

Clearly an assignment for scientists from the Light Pollution and Ecophysiology research group at IGB. After all, they know from previous studies that artificial lighting at night strongly affects the number of insects and insect communities. Therefore, the team led by IGB researcher Dr. Maja Grubisic looked at the locations of the areas involved in the 2017 study: areas in conurbations that have a higher than average level of light pollution.

“Half of all insect species are nocturnal. As such, they depend on darkness and natural light from the moon and stars for orientation and movement or to escape from predators, and to go about their nightly tasks of seeking food and reproducing. An artificially lit night disturbs this natural behaviour – and has a negative impact on their chances of survival”, said Maja Grubisic the starting point of their investigation.

The scientists analysed all recent studies on the effects of artificial light at night on insects, and found that there is strong evidence to suggest a credible link between light pollution and declines in insect populations. For example, flying insects are attracted by artificial lights – and, at the same time, are removed from other ecosystems – and die from exhaustion or as easy prey. Additionally, rows of light prevent flying insects from spreading; causing a lack of genetic exchange within fragmented insect populations that could reduce their resistance to other negative environmental influences, which are especially pronounced in agrarian areas.

A decline in insect populations in agricultural areas – which make up no less than eleven per cent of land use worldwide – does not only mean a decline in species diversity, but also jeopardises important ecosystem services: for example, there are then fewer moths, beetles and flies to pollinate plants. Also, changes in the occurrence and behaviour of pests such as aphids or their enemies such as beetles and spiders can disturb the balance of this well-tuned system. Furthermore, artificial light at night may also have a direct impact on the growth and flowering time of plants, and therefore on yield.

All influencing factors have to be understood and considered – including light pollution

“Our overview study shows that artificial light at night is widely present and can have complex impacts in agricultural areas, with unknown consequences for biodiversity and crop production. Thus, light pollution should be generally considered as a potential ecosystem disturbance in future studies to identify ways in which practical steps can be taken to reduce environmental concerns”, summarised Dr. Franz Hoelker, Head of the Light Pollution and Ecophysiology research group at IGB.