On January 31, 2017, Morocco officially returned to the African Union (AU) after thirty-three years of absence. The late King Hassan II made the decision to withdraw from the organization after the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) was recognized as a full member state of the Pan-African organization although Morocco considers Western Sahara as its “Southern Provinces”.

Mohammed VI, who succeeded his father in July 1999, seemed to understand that the absence of the kingdom at any meeting of the AU was done to the detriment of both its strategy against the Algerian lobby and the Polisario and its ambitious strategy to make Morocco the main economic propeller of West Africa and, perhaps, of the continent as a whole.

It is in this context that Morocco applied for membership of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), just three weeks after it returned to the AU. Meeting in Monrovia, Liberia, in June 2017, the Heads of State and Government of the ECOWAS gave their agreement in principle to the integration of the Kingdom of Morocco, which already has the status of “sovereign observer” in the regional organization, pending the results of a first impact study. The final decision was eventually postponed indefinitely.

Much has been said and written about the Moroccan bid, the supporters praising the benefits of such an integration while opponents point out its somewhat obvious fouls. The idea, enlightened for some, absurd for others, deserves to be analyzed through another lens than that of geography, arguments that we find, here and there, under the pen of critics opposed to such a membership (granted, Morocco does not belong to the Western regional economic community as defined by the African Economic Commission; however, its name in Arabic (Maghreb / مغرب does mean “the West”…)

In this article, we propose to explore Morocco’s relations with its West African neighbors, to determine the ins and outs of such a membership and to ponder the opportunities and threats associated with it, bearing in mind that, despite the existence of regional, continental or international organizations, it remains a fact that every state, without exception, always pursues objectives that must ensure its national interests.

Morocco-West Africa: What Relations?

The political, cultural and commercial ties that bind Morocco to its West African neighbors are known to anyone versed in the history of the continent. Although the European Union (EU) remains Morocco’s main trading partner[1], the Kingdom has greatly intensified its diplomatic and economic relations with West Africa in recent years.

The trading dynamics do remain relatively low[2] when compared with those of other regions of the world. However, Morocco has expressed its firm intention to reverse this trend by signing trade agreements with many sub-Saharan African countries[3] and trade has dramatically increased in the past years (i.e.: + 13 per cent in 2014 according to the African Development Bank). In addition, many infrastructure projects between Morocco and West African countries are currently under way and demonstrate a mutual willingness to strengthen diplomatic and trade relations[4].

Why Is Morocco Turning To Africa?

After several years spent trying to strengthen relations with the EU and the United States through the signing of free trade agreements, Morocco eventually understood that it had chosen the wrong strategy and perhaps the wrong partners to ensure the growth of its economy. Indeed, after the integration of some former Republics of the Soviet Union into the EU, Morocco was no longer the privileged destination for delocalization of European companies. Similarly, at the beginning of the century, Morocco began facing increasing competition from low-cost textile producers in Southeast Asia. Its economy was also significantly affected by the 2007 economic crisis because of its excessive dependence on tourism, trade, remittances and foreign direct investment (FDI) from the economies of Southern Europe.

Morocco thus came to the logical conclusion that it needed to find other partners to ensure its growth. When turning to sub-Saharan Africa, Morocco aspires to reduce its dependence on Europe and to offer its companies the opportunity to compete in new emerging markets. By intensifying its relations with its sub-Saharan partners while maintaining cordial relations with Europe and the US, the Kingdom of Morocco also aspires to eventually become the main hub between Europe, America and Africa and thereby strengthen the competitivity of its main industries: transportation, financial services[5] and agrochemicals.

And it seems that this strategy is already bearing fruit: in 2018, the Africa Investment Index ranked Morocco first on the list of the most attractive countries for FDI directed to the continent, ahead of South Africa, sixth on the list.

Not only does Morocco attract the most FDI but it is also the second-largest investor on the continent behind South Africa, a position it has acquired in just a few years. By joining the ECOWAS, Morocco would not only carve out a place of choice to counter the diplomatic influence of Algeria and the Polisario Front in the Western Sahara conflict but would also offer its companies easy access to abundant natural resources, cheap labor and a market of no fewer than 320 million consumers whose socio-economic needs are too poorly met.

The Road To ECOWAS: Not The Expected Long, Quiet River

Through its numerous declarations and its lobbying activities, Morocco has demonstrated its eagerness to join the community (the kingdom even claimed that it would not hesitate to abandon the dirham to adopt the ECO, the common currency on which the ECOWAS has been working for several years[6]). Nevertheless, Morocco’s application was not welcomed smoothly. While heads of state and government have been more or less enthusiastic, representatives of civil society and some financial groups, particularly in Nigeria and Senegal, have expressed reluctance, saying that the Moroccan membership would hurt the national industries. Despite the validity of the Moroccan bid, there are undoubtedly some pitfalls, even some contradictions that we propose to analyze in the following paragraphs.

1. The Common External Tariff

The Moroccan initiative seems to be in perfect harmony with the country’s African strategy.

However, a more in-depth analysis of the situation leads us to question the work done by Moroccan analysts before embarking on the “Ecowasian” adventure. If Morocco were to join the ECOWAS, it would be compelled to accept all its rules, including the obligation to apply a common external tariff, which is meant to protect the local economies from international competition. Since 2000, Morocco has been linked to the EU by an Association Agreement establishing a free trade area between the two parties.

Since 2013, the country’s authorities have even been negotiating an EU-Morocco Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. Rabat also signed a similar agreement with the United States in 2004.

However, if it were a member of the ECOWAS, Morocco would be unable to meet the requirements of its new membership while respecting the obligations imposed by the two free trade agreements mentioned above. In addition, the application of a common external tariff, and the idea of protectionism that it underlies, would contravene with the Moroccan ambition to become the main commercial hub between Europe, America and Africa.

2. New Migrants

For several years now, Morocco has been facing an unprecedented wave of migration originating from sub-Saharan Africa. Most of these economic migrants aspire to reach Europe via Ceuta or Melilla, European enclaves on African soil.

Although the Moroccan government regularized several thousands of them willing to remain in Morocco to enjoy living conditions relatively more favorable than those in their countries of origin, it is unlikely that this economic migration will be absorbed in its entirety by the Moroccan labor market, which is already struggling to offer job opportunities to its own youth (the youth unemployment rate in urban areas peaked at 42.8 per cent in 2018).

The free movement of people that would follow the integration of Morocco into the ECOWAS may therefore cause a new wave of migration and potential new social trouble.

3. Savings Outflows And Social Unrest

The majority of Moroccan FDI are directed to sub-Saharan Africa, with Mali, C√¥te d’Ivoire and Senegal being the three main beneficiaries. However, these outflows of national savings to some ECOWAS countries have as immediate corollary a decline in investment and job creation in Morocco itself at a time when the country is faced with an unprecedented unemployment crisis and embarked on ambitious local infrastructure projects.

Morocco should thus encourage FDI from ECOWAS countries to ensure a rebalancing of investment flows in the region and avoid potential social unrest that could arise from the feeling of being neglected in favor of industrial growth encouraged by Moroccan investments in foreign economies.

4. Increased Security Risks

Although there are undeniable opportunities to be seized in West Africa, Morocco would also face increased risks if it were to be admitted as a full member because of the instability of the area. More than half of the ECOWAS member states have experienced armed conflict over the past two decades.

Nigeria is currently facing serious security problems embodied by the terrorist group Boko Haram. Similarly, Mali and Niger have experienced many troubles during the past few years. In such a context, integrating a regional organization that, despite its potential, remains fragile, seems unreflective or at least premature.

Conversely, this risk stands as an opportunity for the ECOWAS. Indeed, by integrating the organization, Morocco would bring its military expertise and the equipment of its army, essential assets in times of conflict.

The Arguments Of West African Opponents: Counter-Arguments

Many West African analysts have looked into the Moroccan bid to expose its least favorable outcomes. However, we believe that many arguments, including the most often used ones, can be easily opposed.

1. The End of Customs Duties and its Financial Impact

By integrating the ECOWAS, Morocco would no longer be compelled to pay customs duties on its exports to and imports from West African countries, which would lead to a revenue shortfall for the organization, especially if we consider that Morocco exports more to West Africa than it imports from the region.

However, this shortfall, although obvious, would be offset by the financial contribution of Morocco: members of the organization must contribute 0.5 per cent of the value of their imports to the organization’s budget. At a time when Nigeria is facing an economic recession due to the decline in oil prices, such a financial contribution would obviously be welcome.

2. A Reshuffle in the Game of Influence

Nigeria, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal are the main economic, and hence political, locomotives of the regional organization. Morocco, with a GDP of more than USD 100 billion, would be ranked second on the list of the most influential states behind Nigeria, which has been losing ground since the collapse of oil prices, and potentially reshuffle the cards in the game of regional influence. The kingdom would thus bring about a certain rebalancing of forces if one considers that Nigeria alone represents half of the population of the organization and half of its wealth.

3. The Destabilization of West African Industries

Some economists, opponents to the Moroccan membership, argue that the accession of Morocco could harm the nascent West African industries. According to them, the kingdom, which already imports more than half of its goods from the EU at preferential rates, would take advantage of its membership to flood West African markets with European industrial products. According to the Nigerian economist Falana, the EU would thus gain access through its Moroccan partner to the West African markets, which it has been trying to conquer for several years through the always-postponed signature of a partnership agreement with the ECOWAS.

However, such a scenario is, we believe, rather unlikely. Why? Morocco is bound to the EU by an association agreement establishing a free trade area. However, if it were to integrate the ECOWAS, the kingdom would have to agree to the common external rate mentioned above. Its obligations under such an association agreement and those that would stem from its ECOWAS membership are mutually exclusive. Morocco should either leave the association agreement, which seems unlikely, or negotiate specific derogations from the ECOWAS, which seems unlikely too. Rabat would therefore need to consent to certain concessions.

Conclusion

Although the Moroccan bid is often presented as a one-way street where the kingdom reaps all benefits while the West African states lose everything to their Northern neighbor, we have shown that there are both opportunities and risks for all parties in the “ECOWASION”. However, before being fully admitted into the organization, Morocco will have to resolve the many contradictions that would result from its integration and, so far, few Moroccan analysts have explored these issues head on. The accession of the kingdom to the organization is a critical question whose numerous repercussions will not only impact the economies but also the entire populations on both sides of the Sahara. The Moroccan membership should therefore be subjected to a national debate involving all stakeholders in order to devise a common vision that would benefit all parties and minimize, if not annihilate, any risk of regional implosion.

About the author:

*Jihan Chara is a former political adviser on the Middle East and North Africa to the European People’s Party (EPP). After a work experience at the BBC, she started writing more extensively on issues pertaining to the Middle East and Africa. She holds a double Masters in Arabic Studies and Business Administration.

Notes:
[1] In 2017, 64.6 per cent of Moroccan exports went to the Old Continent while the EU accounted for 56.5 per cent of its imports.
[2] The trading volume does not exceed USD 1 billion while the GDP of the area is set at USD 675 billion. In 2014, sub-Saharan Africa accounted for only 6 per cent of Moroccan exports and less than 1 per cent of its imports. The trade balance is therefore in favor of Morocco.
[3] Despite the agreements, tariffs applied to imported products from non-Mediterranean African countries are higher than those applied to products from North America, Europe or the United States, whatever the category of goods.
[4] These include the investments of Maroc-Telecom, which operates in several sub-Saharan countries through its subsidiaries (Mauritel in Mauritania, Onatel in Burkina Faso, Gabon-Telecom in Gabon and Sotelma in Mali); Nigeria and Morocco have agreed on a gas pipeline project to bring Nigerian gas to Morocco and Europe while Casa Finance City was devised to serve as a financial hub to attract international private investment directed to Africa as a whole.
[5] Three Moroccan banks (i.e.: Attijariwafa Bank (AWB) with its 13 sub-Saharan subsidiaries, Groupe Banque Centrale Populaire (BCP) and the Banque marocaine pour le commerce extérieur (BMCE) and its 19 subsidiaries on the continent) are already well established on many West African markets and act to facilitate Moroccan investments in the region.
[6] However, Marcel De Souza, President of the ECOWAS Economic Community Commission, announced in late 2017 that the common currency would not be put into circulation in 2020 as initially planned, saying that the integration work, despite significant progress in macroeconomic convergence, remains insufficient.

By Dr. Arshad M. Khan*

Hurricane Florence downgraded to Category 1 but still huge in moisture content will continue to pour rain on Georgia and the Carolinas over the weekend. At the same time, Typhoon Mangkhut in the Pacific will be ravaging the Philippines, Hong Kong and China. It is larger and much more powerful, a category 5, and the Philippines, which lacks the infrastructure and resources of the others, is expected to suffer the worst.

Meanwhile another typhoon of sorts is hitting the U.S. Powerful men topple as women shame them through the #MeToo movement. The latest is Leslie Moonves the head of CBS one of the major U.S. TV networks. Apparently, Mr. Moonves had the habit of forcing himself, his attentions and his anatomy on vulnerable young females working for him.

This particular typhoon has now enveloped Judge Brett Kavanaugh, the new Supreme Court nominee who would have shifted the court decisively to the right. A letter has appeared and forwarded to the FBI for further investigation. It recalls a high school incident over which the other party wishes to remain anonymous. Is this the beginning of the end for Mr. Kavanaugh? One never knows. Justice Thomas survived some very troubling appalling allegations by Anita Hill. She has been chosen now to lead the recently formed Hollywood Commission on Harassment.

Ants in the pants or in this case the cassock are in the news once again. In Germany, some 1670 Catholic priests committed some form of sex abuse on 3677 minors between 1940 and 2014; so finds a study commissioned by the church. One in six cases involved rape. The authors noted the figures and the extent of the abuse may be higher as some records had been “destroyed or manipulated”. The work was extensive enough that three German universities participated in the study, which examined 38,000 documents obtained from 27 German dioceses.

The state of Kerala, home to one of the largest Christian populations in India, has seen protests by nuns and their supporters over the rape of a nun by a bishop. The nun lodged a formal complaint with the police on June 27 claiming abuse by Bishop Franco Mullackal over two years. So far no action by the police, who pushed from both sides probably wish the whole issue would disappear. As she made the complaint after the bishop went to the police claiming she and five other nuns were harassing and blackmailing him, some politicians have questioned her account.

Yet former nuns have previously raised the question of a climate of sexual abuse in the Kerala Catholic Church. Babies born from such liaisons are often murdered says former Sister Mary who now runs an orphanage. She saved one such child from the mother, a nun, who was trying to kill the newborn by drowning it in a toilet tank. “That boy is a student who lives the life of an orphan,” she adds. She thinks priests should be allowed to marry. Then there is another former nun, Sister Jesme, who wrote openly about sexual abuse in her book, “Amen: The Autobiography of a Nun” after she left her Catholic order. She has severed all ties.

Add the abuse of boys by a charismatic priest in Chile, and we have news stories covering four continents just this week alone. That the Catholic church needs an overhaul, at least in this respect, must be clear to the pope and his advisers. Of course medical science now allows chemical castration, a reversible process. And then there is marriage as the good sister suggests.

The sexual exploitation of the weak and vulnerable by the powerful transgresses religious and secular boundaries. Not for nothing is ‘the director’s couch’ a metaphor. The fault in the end lies with society, and a pervasive ‘wink and nod’ corporate culture that often still prevails.

About the author:
*Dr. Arshad M. Khan is a former Professor based in the US. Educated at King’s College London, OSU and The University of Chicago, he has a multidisciplinary background that has frequently informed his research. Thus he headed the analysis of an innovation survey of Norway, and his work on SMEs published in major journals has been widely cited. He has for several decades also written for the press: These articles and occasional comments have appeared in print media such as The Dallas Morning News, Dawn (Pakistan), The Fort Worth Star Telegram, The Monitor, The Wall Street Journal and others. On the internet, he has written for Antiwar.com, Asia Times, Common Dreams, Counterpunch, Countercurrents, Dissident Voice, Eurasia Review and Modern Diplomacy among many. His work has been quoted in the U.S. Congress and published in its Congressional Record.

Source:
This article was published by Modern Diplomacy

In the past few days, two major Jewish GOP billionaire donors have abandoned the sinking U.S.S. Trump and turned toward the Democratic Party.

First, came Leslie Wexner, Ohio’s largest Republican donor, who announced that he was leaving the Party entirely.  He was registering as an independent.

Though he didn’t detail where he would turn in his political giving, it’s clear that it won’t be Republicans:

Wexner, the CEO of retail conglomerate L Brands, which owns Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Body Works, announced at a leadership summit in Columbus on Thursday that he “won’t support this nonsense in the Republican Party” anymore, The Columbus Dispatch reported.

The announcement, made at a panel discussion, came the same day Obama visited Columbus before heading to a rally in Cleveland to support Democrat Richard Cordray’s run for governor.

“I was struck by the genuineness of the man; his candor, humility and empathy for others,” Wexner said of Obama.

Wexner said he’s been telling lawmakers that he is now an independent.

“I just decided I’m no longer a Republican,” he said.

Given that Obama will be campaigning intensively on behalf of Democrats for the mid-term elections, it seems likely that Wexner will consider giving to candidates the former president supports.  The only downside here is that Obama is part of the corporate wing of the Party.  He is definitely not a progressive.  He’s long kept Sanders at a distance and treated him warily.  This means that Obama’s goal is not to transform the Party.  He likes the status quo.  He wants candidates like Hillary Clinton running in future.

There’s no question that the Democratic Party should be able to contain multitudes if it is to return to power and regain majority status.  That means there will be centrist, moderate Democrats running in regions where this political agenda works best.

But I worry about the Party élite (that includes Obama) trying to muzzle the Party’s overall move leftward as seen both in Sanders’ presidential campaign and the victories of progressive candidates for House and Senate like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.  The support of new converts like Wexner, if that were to happen, will strengthen this effort.  In turn, that will decrease enthusiasm at the grassroots, a phenomenon which destroyed Clinton’s presidential aspirations.

Even more troubling is the case of another GOP pro-Israel billionaire, Seth Klarman, who had been the largest GOP donor in New England.  He founded the Baupost Group and is a wealthy Boston hedge fund manager.  He also owns the Times of Israel and two major American Jewish papers, Jewish Week (in New York and Washington).  His Israel politics are Likudist and he’s a major donor to Charles Jacobs’ Islamophobic David Project, the Israel Project and other far-right Israel Lobby causes.

Unlike Wexner, Klarman hasn’t left the GOP according to this profile written by NYT resident neocon, Bari Weiss.  He’s just announced he’s temporarily giving only to Democrats in order to give them a Congressional majority.  He plans to give nearly $20-million in the coming election cycle.  His goal is to foil Trump’s more noxious initiatives which, in Klarman’s view, destroy American democracy.  Clearly, he approves of Trump’s economic policies and doesn’t object to the their tilt favoring the wealthy élite (like him).  Nor does he object to Trump’s eviscerating environmental regulations and corporate regulation.

Klarman fancies himself a social liberal and fiscal conservative.  So he’s upset by Trump’s racist pandering, his tacit endorsement of white supremacism, and his hatred of immigrants.  He sees the Democrats as a check on Trump’s worst impulses.

The best that you can say on Klarman’s behalf is at least he’s not trying to fight Trump within the Party.  He’s smart enough to see that the Republican leadership has gone limp in the face of Trump’s tidal wave of revolting populism.  IT can’t be reformed from within. At least not now with Trump’s little hands firmly on the levers of power.  Though he apparently believes it’s possible to return to the Party after it awakens from the Trump nightmare.

The real danger with a figure like Klarman is that he’s smart enough to realize that his millions give him influence in shaping the Democratic Party. He can find the type of corporatist moderate Democrats he favors, recruit them and fund them.  As he told Weiss:

Mr. Klarman’s hoping, though, the Democrats hew close to the center.

“The Republicans have abandoned the middle,” he said. “The Democrats should seize that and plant their flags right there and win.”

This in turn will crowd out the progressive candidates favored by the Sanders wing of the Party.  Klarman sees that just as some Republicans are fighting for the soul of their Party against Trumpsim, the Democrats are also fighting to shape the next generation.  Will it continue to be the Obama-Clinton Party of gradualism; or will it be the Party of Sanders and radical change?

That’s why, though Democrats should welcome everyone who wisely abandons the Trump juggernaut, those coming over to them have their own agenda.  And that agenda could stymie the Party and prevent it from moving in the direction it needs if it is to generate enthusiasm and excitement from the grassroots.

This article was published at Tikun Olam

The world of today is altogether in contradiction to the times of the previous ages. Technology has taken the global order by a major revolutionary storm and made the world a knowledge driven global network. Internet forms the mainstay of the current times and is in fact a boon companion of man in the modern times. Internet is the constitutive element of the current times, sans which life seems to be a dead wood and bereft of technological assimilation.

Over the world, there are today a multitude of problems and a plethora of issues which really pose a serious and a grave challenge to the peace and order of the societal organisations. Kashmir is not a different case. It is in fact a looming imbroglio amuck with political crisis prior to the partition of the sub-continent, thence after and as of now with a renewed impetus and inroads of chaos and uncertainty. Every other day, the situations take a u-turn of additions and alterations with the passage of time and pose a serious challenge for the system to contain the problems at hand.

Since, the eruption of Amarnath land transfer controversy, through the tumultuous phases of 2010 and 2016 till date, the situations have achieved great uncertain proportions and reflect the growing tendencies of political waywardness in Kashmir. Whether we call it destiny, manoeuvring or inroads of tragic phases of political uncertainty, the situations are of enormous gravity as of now.

The internet is the major requirement of the masses all over the world, particularly for the students and business fraternity in the contemporary times. Next day, a cordon and search operation (CASO) is undertaken in the valley by the security agencies during anti-militancy operations, the major thrust of the government is driven towards the choking and muzzling of internet space in Kashmir.

In a place dogged with an overridden unhealthy political atmosphere with a restive nature, one cannot expect a peaceful scenario on the day-to-day basis.

The constitution of India as a guiding principle of rights and duties guarantees right to freedom of expression to the citizens of the country. People in Kashmir voice their dissent over the social media once an unfortunate and gory episode recurs in Vale. The gagging and censuring of media and net in Kashmir has become a new normal in Kashmir. By denying the people, particularly students, the access to information regarding the day-today happenings and latest information about the world situations and information influx, the government is in fact committing a major wrong in Kashmir.

The policy of net gagging in Kashmir might serve as a deterrent in the short term to keep the situation at control in tensive Kashmir, but the aftershocks of the situations cannot be negated. This is an illogical and irrational step in the far-sighted strategy. Since, 2008, Kashmir has been witness to internet blockades, e-curfews and blocking of Pakistani channels at the behest of the government.

Situations have arisen and gone, but the scars of the tragic episodes are there and every day the social media is abuzz with the narratives of the gory tales of the masses which the people have undergone in the long run.

It is a bizarre fact that a coin has two sides. Likewise, Net usage has rights and wrongs associated with it. Internet is the major requirement of people as of now. By choking the net space in Kashmir day-in and out, the government is doing wrong and it may resurface as backlash in the long run.
Instead of taking recourse to banning channels and choking net space in Kashmir, the major thrust of the government should be to take route towards betterment of good governance in J&K and dialogue with all the stakeholders which will serve as a better trigger to better the fragile situation in Kashmir which has unfortunately manifested into a dynamic malignancy and snatched the peace and order of the people’s lives, with an ensuing disorder and chaos looming large over the Asian sub-continent.

Since ceasefire to current political crisis, all is not well in Kashmir and the situations are turning from bad to worse with the passage of time. Today, the alienation among the masses is much more as was in the previous years.

What is therefore the required broad strategy of the government in the current times is to create a consensus and environment for dialogue on the Kashmir issue and restore the faith of people in the political order for the sake of peace which Kashmir is yearning for. There cannot be something divine intervention so far as issue at stake is in consideration; rather a strong political will to better the situation in Kashmir is the vital need of the hour.

Being in New Delhi for over four years as a student from 2011 to 2014, never have i obseved the media gag and net muzzling in mainland India..Why only in Kashmir? This question haunts my mind and is a great disgusting factor.

By resorting to media gagging and net muzzling, the government is committing a wrong step in contravention to the good governance principles which only dents the compassionate mainstreaming of the masses and creates a gory tale of otherness within the psyche of the people as a countermeasure in the long run. The government in J&K ought to understand the gravity of current political instability. Today’s media gag and tomorrow’s liberation will never serve the purpose. After all it is the question of collective pain and unified political approach within the purview of logical approach of political dealing.

Today Kashmir is in search of a dialogue and that is the sine-qua-non condition to rectify the errors and solidify the peace in the hinterland of idyllic setting in the world. Kashmir through the decades-old political alienation has ultimately pushed the masses to the wall.

The emphatic dealing after understanding the macroscopic dimensions of the Kashmir problem, people’s suffering, oppressive tactics and substitution with an ethic of care and concern within the purview of humane approach and entangled through the ropes of good governance can act as a best remedy to the political ailment and its remedy thereof.

*Abid Ahmad Shah works in the Govt. Education Dept. J&K, views are personal.

The Sultanate of Oman with a population of 2.9 million is crucial to India’s foreign policy pursuits in the Persian Gulf region which had its basis in the 1953 India-Oman Treaty of Friendship, Navigation and Commerce. It was also the first of its kind between India and an Arab nation1. India’s strategic calculations is motivated by its critical martime geographical location and its 1,200 miles long maritime boundary connecting it with the vital maritime routes that link it up with Europe2. At the same time, India’s role is pertinent to its food security which supplies wheat, rice, sugar and other food products to the Gulf nation.

Since 2014, Indo-Omani ties have registered significant rise under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In June 2014, Omani Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi became the first foreign dignitary to visit India. From Indian side, the state visits of Indian leaders such as, external Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj (February 17-18, 2015), Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar (May 2016) and Minister of State for External Affairs M. J. Akbar played an important role in cultivating trade, economic, political and defence relations. Most importantly, the visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on 12 February 2018 signified the strategic importance India accords to the Gulf nation which an integral component in its re-invented ‘Act West’ policy. The Indian Prime Minister met with the Sultan Sayyid Qaboos Bin Said Al Said and both leaders focussed on strengthening academic cooperation, cooperation in peaceful uses of outer space, health, tourism and signed a MoU between National Defence College Sultanate of Oman and the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.

Defence ties: A Strong Area in Relations

The defence ties between India and Oman have emerged as a key pillar in the strategic partnership3. In 2005, Oman became first country in GCC to institute a robust defence and security cooperation mechanism with India which was renewed in 2016.4 Notably in 2010, Omani government announced its decision to purchase assault rifle INSAS namely Indian Small Arms Systems manufactured by Indian government owned Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) after it successfully passed the trial run and endurance tests for extreme temperatures. It therefore became the standard assault rifle for the Royal Omani Army5.

In terms of the new government under Modi, his Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar paid a three-day visit to Oman on 20-22 May 2016. During the visit, four MOUs/Protocol were signed that included a MoU on defence cooperation. Under ITEC 2 scheme, India offers a large number of courses to Omani Military personnel6. In addition, “Indian Navy has been deploying mobile training teams in Oman on an annual basis for training of RNO personnel”7. For maritime security, the Hydrographic8 cooperation between India and Oman has been a key feature in Indian Navy’s regional engagement initiatives9. Interactions in the defence/security sphere have been robust in recent times. In March 2017, the troops of the two countries finished ‘al-Nagah-II 2017’ military exercise in Himachal Pradesh. In January 2017, the Air Force exercise ‘Eastern Bridge’ concluded at Jamnagar. While in December 2017 Naval Exercise culminated in Oman10.

During the Indian Prime Minister’s visit, both states signed an annexure to the existing MoU on military cooperation. According to the agreement, Indian warships are allowed access to the strategically located Duqm port. It would therefore allow Indian navy to use the port and dry dock facility for maintenance of naval ships. The opening of Duqm Port is vital for India to enhance its naval activities in the Indian Ocean and help to cater India’s maritime security concerns such as piracy in the Arabian Sea region11.

Flourishing Energy Ties

The rapidly growing energy demand of India has contributed to the need for long term energy partnerships with countries like Oman. The growing energy demands For India, the SAGE has been constructing an underwater natural gas pipeline via Oman, the Middle East to India Deepwater Pipeline (MEIDP)-also known as the Iran-Oman-India pipeline. The project is under construction and sought to bring Iranian cheaper natural gas to India via Oman.

Oman has also conveyed its desire to join International Solar Alliance to India. The ISA provides a useful platform for countries with rich potential of solar energy to work together to tap their full potential. Oman has also “reiterate India’s offer to share India’s experience and capabilities with Oman in development of its renewable sources of energy, such as solar and wind power etc”12. India has reiterated invitation to “Oman to participate in building the strategic oil reserves in India. Responding to PM Modi, Sultan informed about its own initiatives “to create its strategic oil reserves in Ras Markaz near Duqm”13 . The cooperation in the sphere of strategic reserves will help both the countries to deal with emergency fuel shortage in near future and to safeguard the energy security during the critical time.

Rising New Areas of Cooperation

Apart from defence, energy and maritime security, the two countries has shown considerable interest in expanding bilateral ties in the new areas of cooperation such as cyber security, outer space and renewable energy. In the recent years, both states have acknowledged the importance of improving collaboration in field of cyber security. India’s know-how in space infrastructure and technologies and its efforts at scientific exchange and resource development, training and use of space technologies was appreciated by the Omani Sultan during PM Modi’s visit. Consequently, in February 2018 both states signed MoU to enhance cooperation in the space sector. Food security is another area where India’s efforts have proved significantly useful for Oman. India has played an important role in ensuring Oman’s long-term food security and developing fisheries sector. Both states have also undertaken joint venture in the production of fertilizers.

While defence ties significantly contributes in Indo-Omani ties, non-defence areas continue to occupy a large share in the bilateral relationship. It is evidenced by the fact that during Indian Prime Minister’s visit in February 2018, seven out of eight MoUs and agreements were focused on non-security related areas of cooperation such as health, outer-space, tourism and Academic and Scholarly cooperation.

Though, both the countries share a close rapport but New Delhi is still waiting to welcome the Sultan Qaboos who is yet to receive the Jawaharlal Nehru Award for International understanding, which was conferred on him for the year 2004. In 2013, Sultan Qaboos was supposed to visit India as the chief guest for the Republic Day parade but the visit did not materialize for some reasons. In this context, the Sultan Qaboos visit to India will take the centuries old stable relations between the countries to other heights and provide a fresh fillip in enhancing the ties.

*About the authors:
Jatin Kumar is working as Research Assistant at Institute for Defence studies and Analysis.

Hirak Jyoti Das is Phd candidate at centre for West Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.

Notes:
1. http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=174638
2. Kumar, Jatin (2018), “Oman” in P. R Kumaraswamy and Meena Singh Roy, Persian Gulf 2016-17: India’s Relations with the Region, Pentagon Press: New Delhi.
3. www.mei.edu/content/map/locating-oman-india-s-strategic-engagements-gulf#_ftn6
4. http://www.mei.edu/content/map/locating-oman-india-s-strategic-engagements-gulf#_ftn6
5. https://www.hindustantimes.com/india/oman-army-all-set-to-use-india-s-insas-rifles/story-MrxpigdWBkn5NEpS3TZCfI.html
6. https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/26_Oman_November_2017.pdf
7. https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/26_Oman_November_2017.pdf
8. Hydrography is a resource intensive activity, and the Indian Navy is one of the few navies with considerable expertise in this field.
9. https://www.indiannavy.nic.in/sites/default/files/Indian_Maritime_Security_Strategy_Document_25Jan16.pdf
10. https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/26_Oman_November_2017.pdf
11. http://www.mei.edu/content/map/locating-oman-india-s-strategic-engagements-gulf#_ftn6
12. http://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/29479/India_Oman_Joint_Statement_during_visit_of_Prime_Minister_to_Oman
13. http://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/29479/India_Oman_Joint_Statement_during_visit_of_Prime_Minister_to_Oman

By Steve Baggarly*

Due to the approach of Hurricane Florence, marked the end of the Disarm Trident Peace Walk. Some 50 people in all took part in the walk from Savannah to Kings Bay, Georgia, in support of the 7 Catholic peace activists of the Kings Bay Plowshares.

On April 4th, the 50th anniversary of the assassination of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., the seven entered Naval Station Kings Bay, home to six Trident ballistic missile submarines. Each Trident can carry the explosive power of some 1825 Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs—if they are ever used it will mean the end of the world. The activists carried hammers and bottles of their own blood into the base to “beat swords into plowshares,” as the Hebrew Prophets envisioned. Finding no subs in port, they poured blood on the base logo, hammered on a concrete model of a Trident D5 missile, crisscrossed the administration building with yellow crime scene tape, and hung banners on the fence surrounding the nuclear weapons bunkers reading “The Ultimate Logic of Racism is Genocide~MLK” and “The Ultimate Logic of Trident is Omnicide.” Two of the activists remain in the Glynn County Detention Center and five are out on house arrest. All await a hearing on their motion to argue the Religious Freedom Restoration Act in their defense, and then a trial date.

Organized by Voices for Creative Nonviolence and friends, the peace walk began in the rain at Forsythe Park in Savannah and continued for eight more days down coastal Georgia route 17. We hoped to walk all 126 miles to Kings Bay, but Florence had other plans and two days were shaved off. It ended this morning with a short walk and a two hour vigil calling for nuclear disarmament at the main gate to the sub base.

Most of the walk was through the rural coastal Georgia landscape which seeped into my bones as I walked through it mile after mile after mile—the ancient live oaks and the loblolly pines, the grasses and reeds and tannic colored water in the swamps and wetlands, the egrets quietly hunting or startled and taking wing, the ubiquitous Spanish moss cloaking the area in mystery. In several places wide, lazy rivers spanned by old concrete bridges seemed timeless, and huge, vertical, billowing clouds plastered the sky between us and the unseen ocean to the east made it feel like we were walking inside a giant oil painting.

Amid the hauntingly beautiful landscape were markers hinting at the area’s history. The matter of fact descriptions of prominent land holding families, governorships, military positions held, shipping facilities and rice, indigo, and cotton plantations, largely ignored the blood, sweat, and tears of enslaved blacks that soaked the land we trod. We were glad to be educated near Midway, Georgia by a Gullah Gee Chee descendent at a small DIY slavery museum as well as by a couple of local activists.

Our walking days included the 9th of September, the 38th anniversary of the first Plowshares action. Of the eight people who acted at the General Electric plant in King of Prussia, PA, which built nose cones for nuclear warheads, most were Catholic. The Kings Bay Plowshares community is all Catholic; Liz McAllister (long of Jonah House), Jesuit Fr. Steve Kelly, and Catholic Workers Martha Hennessy (a granddaughter of Dorothy Day), Mark Colville, Clare Grady, Patrick O’Neill, and Carmen Trotta.

This is especially poignant as the Holy See was one of only three United Nations members to sign and ratify the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons on the very first day it was open for ratification, last September 20th. Then in November, Pope Francis declared that the possession or the threat of use of nuclear weapons was to be “firmly condemned,” signaling the end of the road for the Catholic Church’s sanction of nuclear deterrence and the existence of nuclear weapons.

Unfortunately, all of the nuclear weapons states boycotted the Treaty negotiations, and in the United States, politicians, the media, as well as the Church are completely silent about it. So, the message of the Plowshares movement continues to move through the land—if governments won’t disarm, the people must. Molly Rush, one of the original Plowshares 8, later wrote that as she hammered on the warhead nose cone she “put a hole in one and a dent in another. And, I thought, these things are as vulnerable as we are, and we can undo what has been done.”

This is the faith of the Kings Bay Plowshares and the hope of those of us who walked the Georgia coast up to this morning.

*Steve Baggarly is an activist with the Norfolk, VA Catholic Worker and arrested participant in past Plowshares actions.  He walked the length of the Disarm Trident march.

ExxonMobil said it will join the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative (OGCI), a voluntary initiative representing 13 of the world’s largest oil and gas producers working collaboratively toward solutions to mitigate the risks of climate change.

The CEO-led organization focuses on developing practical solutions in areas including carbon capture and storage, methane emissions reductions and energy and transportation efficiency. As part of the initiative, ExxonMobil will expand its investment in research and development of long-term solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as partnerships and multi-stakeholder initiatives that will pursue lower-emission technologies.

“It will take the collective efforts of many in the energy industry and society to develop scalable, affordable solutions that will be needed to address the risks of climate change,” said Darren Woods, chairman and chief executive officer of ExxonMobil. “Our mission is to supply energy for modern life and improve living standards around the world while minimizing impacts on the environment. This dual challenge is one of the most important issues facing society and our company.”

ExxonMobil has invested billions of dollars in researching and developing lower-emission solutions, including carbon capture and storage technology, next-generation biofuels, cogeneration and more efficient manufacturing processes.

Earlier this year, ExxonMobil announced initiatives to lower greenhouse gas emissions associated with its operations by 2020, including reducing methane emissions 15 percent and flaring by 25 percent. Since 2000, ExxonMobil has spent more than $9 billion to develop and deploy higher-efficiency and lower-emission energy solutions across its operations.

OGCI was established following the 2014 World Economic Forum and formally launched at the United Nations Climate Summit the same year. Members include BP, Chevron, CNPC, Eni, Equinor, ExxonMobil, Occidental Petroleum, Pemex, Petrobras, Repsol, Royal Dutch Shell, Saudi Aramco and Total.

Women, as well as all shareholders and debt-holders of California firms, should be flooding California’s Governor Jerry Brown’s InBox and Voicemail with calls to veto the recently-passed Senate Bill 826, mandating quotas for women on corporate boards.

Specifically, SB 826 would:

1) Provide for gender diverse representation on corporate boards by requiring each publicly-held corporation headquartered in California to have at least one woman on its board of directors by the end of 2019.

2) Beginning July 2021, the bill requires a minimum of 2 women directors on boards with 5 directors and at least 3 women on boards with 6 or more directors.

Women should be rightly against it because the sole effect will be for existing board members to assume new women board members are only there as quota-fillers who are by definition less qualified than they. I can’t imagine a woman of substance wanting a board seat under such circumstances.

Nominating committees across the state and across the country are already actively seeking women and individuals of color and other “diverse” characteristics. As anyone who has done board recruiting knows, it is very difficult to get highly qualified board members because highly qualified people tend to already be very busy. Good nominating committees, therefore, seek diversity as one of many attributes, and if they cannot find someone good enough who checks the “diverse” box, they know they need to go with merit over quota.

Boards perform difficult and important work: protecting the shareholders’ interests by holding management accountable, reviewing senior leadership’s performance and replacing when warranted, ensuring compliance with thousands of regulations, bringing independent experience and knowledge of the broader environment to help businesses see opportunities and threats insiders may well miss, and helping set strategies for maximizing potential.

When board members are selected for any qualifications other than their ability to perform these roles better than alternative candidates, the company will by definition be handicapped relative to its competition. In the case of California firms, already suffering from cost and regulatory challenges those headquartered in other states do not, adding the requirement that quotas trump merit in selecting board members only adds to their competitive disadvantage.

One would think the California State Legislature would be fully occupied with the pressing needs of its own State apparatus before turning its attention to how privately-governed institutions are run: among the worst public school systems in the country; raging wildfires across the state caused by criminally negligent public lands management; crumbling infrastructure; failing dams and water systems depriving its residents, farmers, wildlife, and businesses of this most critical resource; public pensions bankrupting state services; the worst homeless crisis in the country; and much more.

California’s board nominating committees are already actively working to add more women to their boards. California’s politicians owe it to their constituents to turn their attention to the (mis-)management of their own house and quit hiding their ineptness behind the smoke and mirrors of “diversity,” “equity,” “justice,” and all the other goods government is worst at delivering.

This article was published by The Beacon

Agriculture comprises a big chunk of Pakistan’s economy. A bulk of Pakistan’s population implicitly or explicitly, relies on this sector. According to Pakistan’s Statistical Beauruao about 24 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is contributed in the national economy through agricultural sector. It constitutes 43% of labor force and is the largest source of foreign exchange earnings.

But unfortunately being an agrarian economy the foreign reserves earned through this sector are not as high as they should be. A couple of months back in early 2018 a report released by Pakistan Business Council (PBC) states that “Pakistan’s agricultural productivity ranges between 29% and 52%, far lower than the world’s best averages for major commodities”. Therefore, in order to be an agrarian economy in its true sense there is a need for agricultural advancement in Pakistan.

Keeping in mind the need for agricultural advancement, the Government of Pakistan in collaboration with the Chinese firms has started different projects under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) for restructurings agriculture sector. Since its beginning the agricultural progression has always been an important aspect of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. However, this sector was not much addressed in the early harvest phase because it was more important in the start to first improve the infrastructure network and energy deficiency. Furthermore better infrastructure network and transport facilitates in maneuvering products and goods. Similarly energy is equally important as transport for the promotion of agriculture growth.

Henceforth considering the importance of agriculture, in the second phase of the CPEC, the Long Term Plan discusses in detail the agriculture growth and development. Starting from production, processing, storage and transportation, of agriculture goods, utilizing water assets, conservation and production of food, as well as land development, the LTP has prioritized the agricultural reforms.

Agriculture growth is another way of poverty alleviation. It is evident that the objective behind CPEC is to strengthen the weak economy of Pakistan. Pakistan’s financial system largely relies on agriculture so once it is developed it will bring in more economic benefits and will raise exports of agricultural goods. This would be worth mentioning here that China is world’s largest importer of agricultural products with over $100 billion of food products. But unfortunately Pakistan only shares 1% of food imports with China out of $2.93 billion. Therefore, making it an important ingredient of CPEC will not only boost Pakistan-China bilateral trade of agricultural products but will also provide a good international market for Pakistan.

Consequently in order to bring prosperity, new research in agricultural products, along with enhancing per-acre yield, producing high value-added products and linking the farmers with economic corridor are certain measures that are being under taken in the CPEC long term plan. The ministry of national food security and research has adopted certain procedural measures for the growth of agriculture sector in Pakistan. Moreover Pakistan Agriculture Research Council (PARC) provides 30,000 solar systems to the agrarian communities for solar water pumping. Along with this China will set a fertilizer plant that will produce 800,000 tons per year. A meat processing plant in Sukkur with yearly production capacity of 200,000 tons. China will also install vegetable processing plants with annual output of 20,000 tons and a plant to process fruit juice and jam of 10,000 tons.

Focusing on the vision to upgrade Pakistan economy CPEC should further take steps like vegetable fruit production and value adding services of all the profit earning crops. Moreover livestock production should also be given priority so that they generate revenue and enhance the livelihood of farmers. CPEC will be an inspiration and boon for the agricultural and trade community of Pakistan regarding the fresh economic openings thus directing towards favorable revenue incentives and significant improvements in life style.

*Qura tul ain Hafeez has done M Phil in international relations from Quaid-I Azam University Islamabad. She is currently working as a Research Associate at Strategic Vision Institute Islamabad.  She can be reached at Quraathashmi@gmail.com . 

As Australia’s tattered yet new government, led by the increasingly oafish and amateurish Scott Morrison trundled into its post-climate phase, states which see their existence as dependent on the cutting of carbon emissions have been more than a touch concerned. Their reality remains divorced from the paper clip conspiracies of Canberra and the energy cliques obsessed with cutting prices.

Morrison’s ascension to power was yet another, existentially imposed headache in the aftermath of US President Donald J. Trump’s announcement that the United States would be making a dash from any obligations and aspirations associated with the Paris Climate Agreement. Pacific Island states were starting to write up their wills.

When the decision by Trump was made in the middle of last year, such states as Samoa and Fiji felt a shudder.  “His decision,” came the press release from an assortment of Pacific Island Civil Society Organizations, “is a clear sign of his continued support of the fossil fuel industry which directly threatens the lives of communities living in the Pacific Islands.”

The Australian response, ever mindful of the wishes of its obese cousin and all powerful defender, has reflected a certain bipolar conditioning on matters ecological and climactic. Canberra takes the position, when convenient to its neighbours, that climate change is genuine, dangerous and in need of serious consideration. When necessary, amnesia takes hold.

In the aftermath of Morrison’s replacement of sitting Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, Fiji’s Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama sent a salutary reminder to the new Australian leader couched in a disarming note of congratulation. “I look forward to working with you across a broad front, including the global campaign for action on climate change, the greatest threat facing Australia and all of your neighbours in the Pacific.”

This, to a man who had coarsely brandished a lump of coal in the Australian parliament in February last year, supplied by the good offices of the Minerals Council of Australia. “This is coal,” he guffawed to his opponents, caressing the inert item in his hand with a fetishist’s resolve. “Don’t be afraid; don’t be scared.”

Morrison ought to be suffering jitters from such figures as Samoa’s Prime Minister Tuilaepa Sailele, who has made it clear how climate change laggards should be treated.  “We all know the problem, we all know the solutions,” he explained to the Lowy Institute at the end of last month, “and all that is left would be some political courage, some political guts, to tell people of your country there is a certainty of disaster.”

Then came the delicious blow, landed between the gizzards.  “So any leader of any country who believes that there is no climate change, I think he ought to be taken to mental confinement.  He is utterly stupid.  And I say the same thing to any leader here.”

Despite such cataclysmic promises, Australia’s politicians remain resilient before the inconveniences of reality, and warm to the enticements of stupidity.  The big god coal, and associate demigod fossil fuels, call the tune.

The new Foreign Minister, Marise Payne, made the necessary, paternalistic adjustments for her audience earlier this month ahead of the Pacific Islands Forum in Nauru. This line waxes and wanes along the issue of aid, the condescending drip aid designed to influence more than change. The angle on Australian generosity was pushed (daddy with deep pockets cares), as much to counter the phantom of Chinese influence in the region as anything else. “The largest development assistance in the region is overwhelmingly coming from Australia; in fact it will hit the largest contribution ever during 2018-19 at $1.3 billion.”

Payne also busied herself bribing regional neighbours with such reassurances as employment, a tribute to an old legacy of enticing black labour to an economy short of staffing.  Samoa, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu, she said with soothing corruption, would be added to Australia’s Pacific Labour Scheme, nothing less than a traditional, extracting incentive for the Australian economy.  As ever, the benefit would be for Australia more than anybody else: citizens from those countries would be able to fill the necessary jobs in rural and regional Australia.  (Well and good – they might, in time, have no country to return to.)

Despite the issue of climate change making its inevitable appearance on the agenda, Payne preferred to see it as one of the items for discussion, rather than the main show.  “We really recognise that our Pacific Island neighbours are particularly vulnerable to climate change.”  Australia had been purportedly “working hard” towards climate change commitments, though Payne failed to spell out any coherent steps of late.

The internal politics of the governing coalition in Australia remains intimately related to the fossil fuel industries and climate change sceptics.  The schismatic Tony Abbott remains convinced that Australia should go the way of Trump, and more than a sprinkling of his colleagues think the same.  Central to this is not environmental degradation so much as cheaper energy prices, which has become the holy of holies, the El Dorado of policy makers.  Such is the thinking that accompanies the short term aspirations of shop keeping types even as it dooms island states to watery oblivion.

It is for the first time ever that the militaries of two South Asian nuclear neighbours India and Pakistan participated in the six-day joint military exercises together under the auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Russia. Popularly known as “SCO Peace Mission 2018”, this exercise takes place every two years. This year the Central Military Commission of Russia conducted this exercise from 22-29 August at Chebarkul town in Chelyabinsk Oblast in Russia, initiated by the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (RATS SCO). Under the SCO charter, the exercises included tactical level operations employing counter-terrorism measures and devising effective counter-insurgency techniques to deal with the threats at the international level.

Around 3,000 soldiers from India, Pakistan, China, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan took part in the exercise. The Pakistan contingent comprised 110 members, while the strength of the Chinese contingent was 748 personnel. 167 Army personnel were from India, while ten representatives took part from Uzbekistan as observers. The drill followed the 18th SCO summit.

The main objective behind this mega drill was to expand and enhance cooperation along with building better understanding about each others’ concerns among the member countries. Primarily the orientation has been towards dealing with the growing menace of extremism and terrorism.

While the SCO was founded in 2001 at a Shanghai Summit with the six initial member states as Russia, China, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the latest two members added to this forum are India and Pakistan. The membership now has eight states. Not only is this being seen as a positive development but quite a feat considering the fact that the two new members share a long and most turbulent historical relations. In addition to this another important aspect is that with the inclusion of India and Pakistan, now the SCO outreach has expanded to the South Asian region as well.

This particularly further makes the SCO’s role and the anti-terror drill more relevant as the South Asian region has also been replete with a long history of terrorism and extremism. India and Pakistan have been hostile to each other for many years. In the past decade, crossfire incidents occurred almost every week along Kashmir’s Line of Control. Therefore, as India and Pakistan’s first joint military exercise after their independence, this exercise will be of certain significance to the alleviation tension along the India-Pakistan border. It is very much due to the frictional relations that numerous exchange mechanisms between the two countries have been interrupted many times.

The SCO military exercise can promote positive interactions between the two militaries and help to ease relations between the two countries.

By joining hands in this joint exercise, the states show the commitment and willingness towards rooting out this menace together. This presents a new high security high in the bilateral relations and indeed serves as Confidence Building Measure or CBM between the two South Asian nuclear rivals.

The last exercise was held in 2016 but without India and Pakistan since they were not the members of SCO back then, even though their militaries have worked side-by-side during several UN peacekeeping missions.

There are high hopes attached now that the Peace Mission 2018 and the future series will greatly improve the political and military trust between the disgruntled rivals of South Asia while providing them with a rare opportunity for military exchange. Ultimately this surely have regional implications by positively enhancing the possibility of peace and stability. Nonetheless, in order to maintain the constructive engagement going between India and Pakistan, the member states need to keep this momentum and simultaneously devise new tactics to be included in these drills with the ultimate aim to target terrorist groups in Central and specifically South Asia. A possibility should be worked out to include Afghanistan as well, which at the moment is the observer state. This will surely further enhance the impact and relevance of the SCO as a major platform for all these states to come together and make their contributions for the larger cause of regional peace and stability.

*Sadia Kazmi is a Senior Research Associate at the Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad. She can be reached at sadia.kazmi.svi[at]gmail.com

Pakistan and Afghanistan share similarities in multiple dimensions of history, religion, civilization and culture. Despite the fact, the two countries have never been successful in establishing a tension free relation. Rather passive antagonism, mistrust and a blame game forms a large part of the relations since the creation of Pakistan for more than half a century. A trust deficit is observed between the two neighbors rather than a cordial relation.

Tense bilateral relations with Afghanistan have emerged as a major security and stability issue for Pakistan as it is seemed to be sandwiched between two hostile neighbors from the east and west, India and Afghanistan respectively.

Afghanistan has been an instable country with multiple interest groups functioning within it making its emerging outlook uncertain. Afghanistan looks more like a tribal confederacy than a cohesive nation-state. Yet, the instability in Afghanistan affects no country as much as it affects Pakistan.

Keeping the aforementioned scenario in mind, it is extremely necessary for Pakistan to try and maintain cordial relations with its neighbor for its own strategic benefits. It is essential for Pakistan to initiate a peace process in Afghanistan.

Many attempts have been made in the past to establish better terms with Afghanistan by Pakistan, but most could not bear fruit. In current scenario, the most reliable possibility of a cordial relation with Afghanistan is the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline.

The TAPI gas pipeline is undeniably one of the biggest energy projects of the Asian region. The planned pipeline has a complete length of 1,814 kilometers: 214 km in Turkmenistan, 774 km in Afghanistan, and 826 km in Pakistan to reach Fazilka on the India-Pakistan border. With a total estimation of $9.9 billion, the project is planned for 30 years. The pipeline would have the capability to supply 33 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas from the world’s fourth-biggest natural gas reserves in Daulatabad of Turkmenistan; with 16 percent going to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India would receive 42 percent each. In addition to receiving 5.22 bcm of gas annually, Afghanistan would get around $400 million each year from transportation income.

The pipeline will run from gas fields in Turkmenistan through Afghanistan and Pakistan to India. It will start from the Galkynysh gas field. In Afghanistan, it will be constructed alongside the Kandahar–Herat Highway in western Afghanistan, and then via Quetta and Multan in Pakistan. The final destination of the pipeline will be the Indian town of Fazilka, near Pakistan-India border.

The pipeline project is undoubtedly important for the member countries and the Asian region. Pakistan and India face a shortage of power. The investment will provide a way for fulfilling energy requirements of both nations and has the capability to address the shortage of power in both nations. The transit revenue generated will be a startup towards the economic development of the war-stricken Afghanistan. Whereas Turkmenistan, a country largely based upon its gas reservoirs for its economy, will get a market in South Asia after losing its market with Russia and Iran having seen a backlash in its economy.

China has also vowed to join the projects as an alternative of its fourth gas pipeline from Turkmenistan that formerly was more costly being transited through the Central Asian States. With the help of TAPI, the pipeline will cover a shorter distance from the soil of Pakistan to China through the Karakorum mountain range.

85% of the cost of TAPI pipeline will be funded by Turkmenistan where the cost is estimated at $10 billion. 5% of the cost shares will be contributed each by Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. For the development of the region, the Asian Development Bank has also vowed to fund the project. The project is expected to be completed by 2020 or sooner if all the member nations collaborate.

The reliability of this dimension also sets its footing through the fact that it involves the consent of the major pressure groups dwelling in Afghanistan- the Afghan government, the Taliban and the United States. It is a rare occasion that these major pressure groups within Afghanistan come on one page of collaboration. The Afghan government realizing the potential of the project to better the economy of Afghanistan has given the go ahead to the project. The Taliban have also vowed to not interfere in the matter and let the pipeline be set in the Taliban controlled areas without posing harm to it. The US had also agreed in supporting TAPI in 2013 (by the then US Ambassador to Pakistan Richard Olson).

TAPI is a regional energy infrastructure project and will help loosen tensions between the neighboring countries involved due to interdependence. This attribute assures the fact that this investment is to bear fruit for all the nations involved in the project. TAPI is a very reliable dimension towards bettering Pakistan-Afghanistan relations.The project can be a way to rebuild Afghanistan into a cohesive nation state- a dimension through which Pakistan too will benefit (keeping in mind the implications an instable Afghanistan has over Pakistan). It will also build a sense of trustworthiness among the two countries and will be a factor of interdependence among the nations. The new forming government should take into account the significance and the benefits this project has. It shall be a priority for the new government since it not only ensures the bettering of multi lateral relations amongst the countries involved, particularly Afghanistan, but also will meet the needs of power shortages in Pakistan.

*Hareem Aqdas, Researcher with Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad, a student of International Relations from Quaid-I-Azam University, Islamabad and a former exchange student to the U.S. for the course of Leadership and Social Justice.

Word is that Michael Bloomberg, the mega-billionaire former mayor of New York City who watched his wealth more than double while he sat in the mayor’s office is thinking of running for President as a Democrat in 2020.

Why does that suck?

Well, listen as my dear departed friend and co-founder of this site, Chuck Young, recounts (in an article written foR TCBH! [1] published almost eight years ago) his conversation in late 2010 with a Bloomberg “push-poll” caller trying to convince Chuck to support Bloomberg in his re-election bid:

…
Pollster: Mayor Mike Bloomberg wants to close the $4-billion budget by taking control of the pension plan from the state and enacting pension reform.

Chuck Young: Didn’t you just ask that?

P: No, that’s a new statement.

CY: Well, it sounds like a statement I disapproved of with only slightly different wording.

P: So you somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove?

CY: Strongly. Now it’s your turn to answer my question. Do you know how much Mayor Mike Bloomberg is worth?

P: No, I don’t.

CY: I’ve seen different estimates, but it’s probably about $18 billion. You can put on your survey that I strongly disapprove of that.

P: The statement is this, sir: Mayor Mike Bloomberg wants to avoid raising taxes on the middle class by taking control of the city union pension plans from the state legislature.

CY: Didn’t I already answer that?

P: No, sir.

CY: Strongly disapprove.

P: Mayor Mike Bloomberg wants to shift control of service union pensions to the city council because the city council understands the needs of the people of New York City better than the state legislature. Do you strongly approve…

CY: $18 billion. You know what Mayor Mike could do with that all that money in his wallet?

P: Sir, I just need to know: Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve…

CY: Mayor Bloomberg could cover the entire budget gap all by himself, and still have $14 billion to live on. How bad could his life be with a mere $14 billion to spend? Would his daughter have to give up even one of her dressage ponies?

P: If we could just continue, sir.

CY: I mean, what’s the point of having the 23rd richest guy in the world as mayor if he doesn’t help us out?

P: Please answer the question, sir.

P: How many more do you have?

CY: Just a few.

CY: You said that ten minutes ago. Count them and tell me.

P: When you give us certain responses, we’re authorized to ask you more questions.

CY: What?!!? You mean the more I disapprove of Mayor Mike, the more you’re going to read statements calculated to change my mind?

P: Sir, please just a few more questions.

CY:Nope, not a one. I want you to type this opinion into your computer. Mayor Mike should cover the budget gap with $4 billion of his own money, and then he should take the other $14 billion and give it to people who have no pension at all, and then he should jump off the George Washington Bridge, and then I won’t spit on his grave. How’s that for an opinion?

P:I just need your answer on this statement, sir. Mayor Mike Bloomberg wants to shift control of service union pensions to the…

[With that, I hung up the phone and started to make dinner.]

On Dec. 19, 2010, when Chuck wrote the column that this snippet was taken from, Mayor Bloomberg was worth $18 million and was ranked as the 23th richest man in the world. Today, he’s worth $52 billion — almost three times as much! — and is the 11th richest man in the world. You can bet he availed himself of all the juicy tax breaks his accountants could find in order to pile up all that extra $34 billion in profits from his privately-held Bloomberg L.P held company as well as, of course, the nice low maximum tax rate on income for the obscenely rich.

Can any readers of this article say they tripled their savings and/or retirement account over the past eight years the way Bloomberg managed to do, part of that time while “working” as the mayor of the country’s largest metropolis?

Are people serious about wanting someone like that to be the Democratic candidate for president, much less the actual President of the United States?

Chuck was right when he essentially called Bloomberg a cheap bastard hanging onto and growing his wealth even as he, as mayor, called for stiffing city employees out of their hard-earned pensions in order to close a city budget deficit of $4 billion. That’s a deficit, remember, caused to no small extent by his own unwillingness as mayor to raise taxes on his rich buddies on Wall Street and in the real estate industry (like Donald Trump), when he could have eliminated that deficit himself and barely noticed anything missing from his cash horde, which probably grows by that much in some years anyhow.

Bloomberg, Chuck also noted, gratuitously had his police goons crush the totally peaceful Occupy Wall Street movement in 2011, attacking them in the dark of night because their presence in Zuccotti Park was disturbing to the suits on Wall Street who had to walk past them going to and from work. He complained they were a sanitation problem but that was because he didn’t allow the city’s Parks Department toprovide them with adequate porta-potties for their action, as city administrations normally have done for political protests. (Bloomberg’s never been big on the right to protest. In 2008, when the Republican convention was held in NY City, he denied Bush/Cheney protesters a march and rally permit though hundreds of thousands planned to march, causing predictable but thoroughly avoidable confrontations with the city’s police.)

Bloomberg has more recently distinguished himself, as co-convener (with California Gov. Jerry Brown) of the Climate Summit just completed in San Francisco by denouncing those environmental activists protesting outside the event who were demanding a ban on fracking and on new oil well approvals in California. He compared the protesters to Trump supporters calling for a wall on the Mexican border while they vacation in Mexico.

Can we all agree that this guy is a jerk? A smug upper-class billionaire who hasn’t got a clue what it’s like to work hard for a living and to raise a family? An uber-capitalist anti working-class pig wearing liberal-on-social-issues lipstick? A fake climate change advocate who doesn’t want to upset the industries that are profiting on mining, refining and selling carbon-based fuels like oil and natural gas.

Practially speaking, billionaire Bloomberg as Democratic presidential candidate in the current climate in America would probably go down to defeat, either to Trump, or if he’s gone by then, to just about any Republican. And if he were to win the White House, we’d all be screwed too, as he predictably would push for lower taxes for corporations, reduced regulation of his Wall Street banker friends, and more trouble in the MIddle East (Bloomberg has consistently supported Israel’s various repeated brutal assaults and murderous destruction of the ghetto internment camp known as Gaza, and billions of dollars of free US military aid to Israel).

If Bloomberg tosses his hat and his bottomless pit of money into the Democratic presidential ring it will be yet another Clinton-style disaster for the party, the nation and Mother Earth.

By Jaishree Balasubramanian

India’s cabinet approved a decree setting prison terms for Muslim men who instantly divorce their wives by uttering the word “talaq” three times, officials said Wednesday, as critics belittled the move as a ploy by the Hindu nationalist-led government to woo women voters.

The country’s Supreme Court last year outlawed the practice known as triple talaq, which is common among India’s minority Muslims. It allows a husband to legally divorce his wife by stating “talaq” – the Arabic word for divorce – three times in oral, written or electronic form.

“The cabinet has passed the ‘triple talaq’ ordinance,” Law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad told a news conference. “There was an overpowering urgency and a compelling necessity to bring the ordinance as the practice continued unabated despite the Supreme Court order.”

The ordinance, which requires the signature of Indian President Ram Nath Kovind in order to take effect, makes the practice a nonbailable offense and violators could face up to three years in prison, officials said.

The proposed law would allow a magistrate to grant bail, but only after “hearing the wife” in a case, Prasad said. It also empowers a woman to approach a magistrate and seek subsistence allowance for herself and her minor children.

The decree came months ahead of a general election expected in April or May next year.

Analysts said the decree could bolster support from Muslim women for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has struggled to eradicate perceptions that it is against minorities.

About 14 percent of the nation’s 1.3 billion residents are Muslims. The country is about 80 percent Hindu, according to census data.

But the ordinance also drew criticism from women activists, senior Muslim leaders and the main opposition Congress Party, which accused the government of treating the issue “more as a political football than a matter of justice to Muslim women.”

Khushboo Sunder, spokeswoman for the Congress Party, said triple talaq had to be banned, but questioned the timing of the cabinet’s decree.

“The apex court had held it null and void last year,” she said. “Why didn’t the government immediately bring in the decree?”

Asaduddin Owaisi, an influential Muslim member of parliament, tweeted that the triple talaq ordinance was unconstitutional and against Muslim women.

“In Islam, marriage is a civil contract and bringing penal provisions in it was wrong,” he said during an interview with a local TV station.

Ishrat Jahan, a petitioner in a triple talaq case, told a local TV channel that her husband had divorced her over the phone when he was in Dubai in 2014 by merely saying “talaq” three times.

“The triple talaq ordinance is a welcome step, I am very happy the government has taken such a decision,” she said.

The use of triple talaq in India has been a subject of controversy. The custom is banned in Muslim-majority countries such as Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

‘Abandonment, not divorce’

Women’s advocacy groups also condemned the government’s decision to make triple talaq a penal offense.

Kavita Krishnan, activist and secretary of the All India Progressive Women’s Association, questioned “why only Muslim men should be punished for abandoning their wives and not Hindu men.”

Triple talaq means abandonment, not divorce, Krishnan said.

“We do not agree with the government’s decision to make it a criminal offence,” she said.

The triple talaq issue grabbed headlines in 2015 when Shayara Banu, a Muslim, filed a petition seeking an end to the practice. Her husband ended their 15-year marriage by sending her a letter with the word talaq written three times.

Influential Muslim groups including All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB) and Jamiat Ulama-i-Hind, which had opposed the ban on triple talaq, could not be reached for comment.

But Mohammad Wali Rahmani, AIMPLB’s general secretary, had previously told BenarNews that triple talaq was “a fundamental right of every India citizen, according to the constitution.”

By Michael Lelyveld

China’s plans to avoid another natural gas crisis next winter may depend on how deeply U.S. tariffs cut into its economy, experts say.

The effect of tariffs on industrial production is one of several unpredictable factors that will weigh on demand for the cleaner-burning fuel as the government tries to guard against winter shortages for the second year in a row.

Last December, many homes and schools in the smog-bound northeast were left in the cold after the government banned coal-fired heating before new gas networks could be completed in time.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) soon relented and allowed coal burning to resume, but the scramble for gas led to shortages and drove prices to record highs.

The NDRC planning agency has tried to tackle the problems by promoting more gas storage, more receiving terminals for imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and clearer guidelines for scrapping coal-fired boilers in the absence of adequate gas supplies.

“Last year’s shortage of natural gas in northern China showed the country’s shortcomings in production, supply, storage and sales of such energy,” said an NDRC spokesman in April, as quoted by the official English-language China Daily last month.

The paper cited a report by the China Electric Planning and Engineering Institute, concluding that seasonal differences in gas consumption were “aggravated” by encouraging fuel conversions for households and industrial enterprises at the same time.

Vice Minister of Finance Liu Wei said that future replacements of coal-fired boilers must secure a “matching supply source” of gas before proceeding, Reuters reported, citing the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s flagship paper People’s Daily.

But the pace of gas demand will also be influenced by forces that may pull in opposite directions, according to Ling Xiao, chairman of Kunlun Energy, the Hong Kong-listed distributor of China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) subsidiary PetroChina.

In remarks reported by the South China Morning Post, Ling said on Aug. 29 that it was “almost certain mainland China will once again face a tight gas supply this winter.”

Ling’s comments followed mixed assurances by a PetroChina official in July, reported by China Securities Journal.

The company was “fully prepared this year” to deal with last winter’s equipment problems with pipeline gas from Central Asia that contributed to the crisis, according to the official.

“Gas supplies are still expected to be tight this winter, but the situation should be better than last year,” the official said.

Ling’s more recent remarks suggest there are still unsettled issues in preparing for the winter gas squeeze.

Local governments “will have to balance residential heating needs with industrial users’ gas demands,” he said.

During last winter’s heating crisis, the NDRC ordered local governments to prioritize gas supplies for households, forcing some industrial enterprises to close or cut back.

On March 1, before the end of the last heating season, the NDRC said that “gas for nonresidential use should be reduced when necessary” to meet household demand.

Lack of clear instructions

Ling’s comments suggest that distributors and local officials may lack clear instructions for the coming heating season this year.

Ling said the trade war with Washington “could result in a slowdown in China’s manufacturing sector,” which would both reduce gas demand and weaken the ability of industrial users to pay for the higher-priced but cleaner fuel.

But the impact of slowing demand would be “largely offset” by the central government’s anti-pollution push, he said.

Despite last winter’s problems, the cabinet-level State Council announced in July that it would expand its seasonal smog-fighting program from 28 northern cities to 82 by limiting some steel, aluminum and cement production, and promoting more conversions to gas.

Last February, the Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) said plans called for switching 4 million more households and industrial plants from coal to gas or electricity this year, Reuters reported at the time.

While the impact of tariffs and production curbs may reduce demand and relieve shortages, the net effect of new gas conversions is unclear.

The government may also be tempted to spur industrial production with stimulus policies to keep economic growth from slipping, further complicating the outlook for gas demand.

The unsettled issues raise the question of how the government should prepare for a second season of potential shortages beyond the steps it has already taken.

Partial solutions

Philip Andrews-Speed, a China energy expert at the National University of Singapore, said that the government’s strategies must go beyond partial solutions.

“The underlying problem is how to ensure that the supply chain infrastructure and the contractual arrangements are in place from well head to burner tip,” Andrews-Speed said by email.

“If we see another surge in the conversion of coal-fired appliances, it is almost certain that there will be unsatisfied demand, unless end-user prices are raised sufficiently to cut off this demand, which is unlikely,” he said.

So far, the government’s policies have stopped short of fully deregulating gas prices and allowing market forces to reconcile supply and demand.

In May, the NDRC announced a partial reform for wholesale pricing of pipeline gas that allows “city gate” rates for residential use to rise by up to 20 percent over set levels.

The adequacy of the adjusted price cap may be tested if a gas crunch is repeated this year, triggering competition for supplies.

“Local governments will have to decide which sector deserves preferential treatment,” Andrews-Speed said, “In the past, this has usually been the households, assuming that the distribution pipelines and boilers are in place and the gas supply is provided.”

“However, as we know from last year and earlier experience, putting in place the end-user infrastructure for a given quantity of gas consumption is quicker and easier for industry than for households,” he said. “So, once again, the households may go cold.”

Double-digit imports

As the government has pursued its winter gas policies, China has relied on double-digit increases in imports to meet its growing demand for gas.

Last year, China’s gas consumption rose 17 percent, according to CNPC. But domestic production failed to keep pace as output rose at just half that rate, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said.

This year, apparent demand climbed 16.8 percent from a year earlier in the first half, the National Energy Administration (NEA) reported, while domestic production increased 4.6 percent, according to NBS data.

In the first eight months of this year, domestic gas output gained slightly but growth remained at only 5.9 percent.

Last year, combined imports of pipeline gas and LNG soared 26.9 percent, the General Administration of Customs (GAC) said. This year through August, gas imports are up 34.8 percent, Reuters said.

On Sept. 5, the State Council issued a new guideline for promoting gas sector development, but provisions reported by Xinhua were general and vague.

“The country should effectively solve the problem of unbalanced and insufficient development of the sector to deal with the natural gas shortage and production capacity, realize balanced supply and demand, make facilities safe and efficient, and improve the market-oriented mechanism,” the guideline said.

Among other things, “the country should accurately forecast natural gas demand,” said the government, according to Xinhua.

The confrontation between Israel and Palestine is not new, but is rather a prolonged strife between the two entities. A look at the conflict’s history shows a series of demonstrations by Palestinian protesters against Israel’s settlement policy which subsequently turned these activities into violent confrontations, resulting in huge causalities. Adding a new upheaval in the prolong conflict, since last several weeks, Palestinian protesters have been demonstrating along the fence with Israel.

On 30 March 2018, a demonstration was commenced by more than ten thousands of Palestinian protesters, dubbed the name of protest as “Great March of Return”. Subsequent incidents led to killing of more than 58 Palestinians by the IDF and injuring huge numbers as well. Recently, on 10 July 2018, Gaza’s Islamic forces intensified their popular protracted demonstration. The reason behind this was Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision a day before to tighten the siege on Gaza as a response to Hamas continued launching of fire kites from Gaza to Southern Israel.

The question that needed to be asked, therefore, is whether demonstration and direct confrontation, which is not unusual, is really a solution of Gaza crises. After the last decided day of protest (the day of Nakba); did the ‘Great March of Return’ really improve Gaza’s terrible condition?

The possible answer is ‘no’. Despite the continuation of protracted demonstrations, these have not yet achieved concrete results in terms of easing the blockade and resolving Gaza’s situation. Hence, Gaza’s crises can come to end only when Palestinian leadership adopt tactical, realistic and pragmatic approach towards Israel and understand regional and global political developments. Israeli Prime Minister should also lose his intransigence attitude over Jerusalem, Palestinian refugees, and final boarders that has left Palestinian frustrated and increasingly pessimistic about any attempts to negotiate.

Why does Palestinian leadership need to understand regional and global politics? There are three reasons. First, the Arab countries rhetorical support of the Palestinian question due to religious affiliation to the Jerusalem, a vexed question heavily influenced by the religious dimension, but failed to substantially provide financial assistance to Gaza Strip. A recent instance is the US President Donald Trump’s decision on 7 December 2017 to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and to shift US embassy to Jerusalem. Saudi Arabia and others Arab countries unanimously stood against Trump’s decision.

However, on a contrary, Saudi Arabia, on 7 March 2018, gave nod to India’s Air flights to fly from New Delhi to Tel Aviv over its sovereign air space signals. On 27 March 2018, Saudi Arabia’s Prince Mohammad bin Salman Al Saud recognised Israel’s right to exist during his visit to the US. Moreover, ties between Gulf countries and Israel also continued to enhance, as Mirage 2000 fighter jets from the United Arab Emirates and F-16s from the Israel Air force flew together in the sky above Greece. A week earlier, senior Saudi, Emirati, Qatari and Omani counterparts all sat around the table with Israeli officials in the White House.

The point, therefore, is their open sharing of the dais with Israel, while they have been boycotting Trump administration since the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. These open cooperation between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf states, are seen at the expense of the Palestinians. Iran which is increasingly troubled economy and collapsing currency subsequently protest embarked. Protesters were chanting “leave Syria and think of us” and “No to Gaza” “No to Lebanon”. These developments should be considered carefully by the Palestinian leaders.

Second; a decade before, the image of Israel had gone through universal contempt. Netanyahu was scorned by Obama. European leaders did not intent to hear from him. Arab leaders showed him the red flag. Asian countries shrugged their shoulders, and African nations were not interested. Over the last several years, the regional and global politics had gone through various metamorphoses, the most considerable of which was the Arab Spring that elbowed Palestinian issue into a corner.

Following the collapse of several regimes in the region, as a result of civil wars, riots and chaos that culminated in the downfall of the older order in the region and changing guard in the United States from the Obama to Trump. Negativity has spiralled into positivity and universal contempt has turned to global admiration.

Lastly; the growing Israeli popularity in international politics cannot be underestimated. The image of Israel have been become a mover and shaker in international politics. It can be seen through the various developments. Recently, Israel maintained strategic relationship with Asian countries namely India and China, conducted affairs with the most of the Sunni Arab world, and established its presence in Central and Eastern Europe. Last week, on 18 July 2018, a leader from European country, a Hungarian PM named Viktor Orban, who has been flirting with anti-Semitism and praised Nazi regime for many years, has now visited Israel for a two-day visit. Moreover, on 16 July 2018, two superpower countries’ leaders, Russian President Valadimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, had a meeting in Helsinki where the Israeli PM was praised by the both the leaders and had expressed deep commitment to Israeli security.

Given the above context, Palestinian leadership should be aware with the developments and the dynamics of regional politics. After several weeks of violence, Israel and Palestine, both need to explore the possibilities of peace process yet again, which is tantamount. Therefore, Palestinian leadership needs to immediately put some serious efforts in implementing recent reconciliation deal between Hamas and Fatah that will make a united front in order to negotiate with Israel. Israel should leave its intransigence over certain issues and lift the blockade with mutual agreement. A modest step such as these could be achieved with the help of an external player. If such efforts fail, then on-going violence will take the shape of a fourth Gaza War, leaving Gaza in worse and severe condition. The dire condition of Gaza cannot be solved at all through military confrontation in which huge numbers of innocent people are sacrificing their lives in vain.

*Sunil Kumar, a PhD student, in Centre for West Asian Studies, School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.

Egypt has always been admired for its pyramids and the remains of its ancient civilization. The country has always played a detrimental part in the Middle east politics and of recently, the ‘Arab Spring’. However, with the change of political wind within the territory, Egypt has been put under the scrutiny of world leaders and political thinkers.

The country declared itself to be a ‘Republic’ in 1953 after the revolution of 1952 when the powers were passed to the military. Egypt prior to that was ruled by a group of royal families and had its first elected President in 1953. But the most influential political period lasted under Hosni Mubarak’s reign which lasted for more than 30 years until he was ‘dethroned’ from his dictatorial practices in 2011. He had served as the vice-President under Anwar Sadat, the path towards the Presidential life began after Sadat’s assassination. The former President has known to survived six assassination attempts made by the Islamist militants in Cairo. Mubarak known to be the Quasi- Military leader who had kept imposing emergency although out his Presidentship was the biggest set back of his government, but despite the strict emergency rules followed by the citizens for almost 30 years his government could not be toppled. Hosni’s attempt was more of a ‘draconian’ regime to combat with military extremists and he did consider of opening up Egypt’s political and economic doors to democracy with the help of his biggest ally, the United States of America.

What political scientists and International Relations enthusiasts could gather from Mubarak’s Presidentship is that despite the flaws which usually will not be accepted as per the 21st century norms of ‘democratic’ regimes there where factors, both political and social which sustained his government and these factors later on became the reasons for his ‘unsustainability.’ With the democratic winds bringing a change across the Middle East, authoritarianism, constitutional changes for power dynamics, limited press freedom and the oppression of the opposition, were realised to be an absolute replica of ‘dictatorship.’ The Centre for European Policy Studies also revealed some economic factors such as distribution of resources, welfare programmes and rising poverty which led to Mubarak’s fall. The same report had suggested the challenges which lied ahead of Mubarak’s fall, for the new regimes who would take a step towards ‘democratic’ transformation.

They identified constitutional reforms and the role of political and civil groups in this transition to play an important part, alongside economic policies for the just distribution of resources. The future of Egypt was termed to be ‘opaque’ in 2011 and partly it continues to be the same under the President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

After the massive protests in the streets of Cairo against Mubarak, Mohamad Morsi was elected as the President in 2012, but he lasted for only a year as in 2013 he was overthrown by Sisi in a military coup d’etat. The protests broke out due his increasing ‘authoritarianism’ and an adoption of Islamist rule despite the heavily imposed secularism or ‘rule of law’ mentioned in the constitution. So, after the protests ended with Morsi’s resignation, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi became the 6th President of Egypt in 2014. Before joining office, he had already dismissed his opponents and called for a new constitution outlining a new political map for the country.

Interestingly enough, his Presidentship wasn’t quite the ‘democratic reform.’ TheRabaa Massacre,2013 under the interim government was a subject of international criticism and since then media statesmen have named him ‘another dictator in progress.’ A lot of detainees have been kept in prison and alongside revolutionaries, journalists and liberalists who have been a part of the unrest of 2011.

Moving forward to the present and with Sisi continuing his second term after the March 2018 elections, a new petition is underway called the ‘People Demand’ which is a petition which demands that Sisi continue his Presidentship even after his second term.

A similar petition was undertaken for the March 2018 elections to gather support for the President. The Guardian reports that people were paid to sign the petitions and the signatures amounted to approximately 13 million. Such ‘forced’ petition signing is another example of how much ‘authority’ the President wants to exercise. However, concerning the future elections Sisi arrested his opposition. Sami Anan, Chief of Staff of Egyptian armed forces who expressed his wishes to stand against Sisi was arrested on no concrete grounds and Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi cleared his way for the third term.

Anan isn’t the only opponent arrested but also a human right activist named Khalid Ali was forced out of the elections for the incumbent president. Authoritarianism has again started captivating the democratic winds and the Sisi administration has consolidated power in its hand with no media representatives. Human rights websites and all societal groups have also been pressurized to work as per the norms of the government. Questions of insecurity on Sisi has been thrown and the arrest of these candidates who poses no threat to a leader like Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi. Economic programmes also failed to revive the poverty and the promised reforms for employment had failed miserably leading to high inflation.

It would be to wrong to not mention about the geopolitics post-Mubarak period and now under the current Sisi ‘rule’. The military is back in the game and Trump’s administration has appreciated the blockade against Qatar by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE and Egypt. Sisi is confident enough that despite his domestic performance, he would still be getting billions of dollars as military aid from the US. After coming in power, the Saudi-Iran relations have undergone stress due to their involvement in the country’s so called ‘transition’. Saudi Arabia had expressed its concern over the strong Egyptian and Iranian ties, as they are too emerging as strong players in the MENA region. The matter in Egypt is worsening day by day, as internal situations are moving as per supreme ‘authority’ practised by the President. To emerge as a regional power in the MENA region, Sisi would have to revise his foreign policies and work towards a joining the fragments of his own country.

*Arijita Sinha Roy is a Research Intern at The Kootneeti, a New Delhi based policy tank on International Relations & Diplomacy

Russia has undergone fundamental changes following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. These changes have taken different shapes and range from demography to foreign policy, from rising discontent within the population to a more troublesome economic situation.

Thus, the decline of Russia as a power continues and is made up of several interconnecting trends. I have written that Russian demographic trajectories indicate that the Russian population, which has been decreasing, is set to decline even further in the coming decades. In 2012, the Kremlin estimates projected that Russia’s population would diminish to 107 million people by 2045-2050.

This demographic decline in itself results from several factors such as low fertility rate and the HIV crisis. Moreover, the number ethnic Russians is in decline as opposed to the Muslim population.

The Russian decline is also characterized by general technological underdevelopment – the process which began in the last decades of the Soviet Union and accelerated in the 1990s.

Even inside the country, although it seems that all is quiet and comfortable, the situation is tense in the regions. Ethnic minorities might raise their voice once the center – Moscow – experiences deep economic troubles.

In fact, from a wider historical perspective, Russia has always been backward in technological and economic aspects. Even after the first two Five-Year plans under Joseph Stalin in the 1930s, when the country experienced almost a doubling of the industrial output in comparison with previous years, Soviet Russia still lagged significantly behind the European states. Further back, in the Romanov times, Russians were backwards in economics and other crucial components of state development.

There are many other components of the modern “decline of Russia” model. Inter-elite fighting in the Kremlin is important, so are the huge expenses spent on special security agencies and the state army.

However, though these trends are important, they are still somehow simplistic and lacking the understanding of how the Russian mindset works. If the political sovereignty in the West emanates from below, in Russia the government relies on coercive measures to control the vast country. Not only is this state of affairs not anathema to most Russians, but they expect their leaders to be tough-minded and heavy-handed. Hence the Kremlin’s lack of serious concern over the anti-government demonstrations which, in contrast to their over-dramatization by the Western media, reflect a small fraction of the Russian population.

Respect and obedience to authority is also a distinct element of the sociopolitical ethos of Russian society, which is neither overly democratic nor fully European nor despotically Asian.

However, it should be noted that although historically Russia has been always backwards in comparison to Europeans and experienced similar internal problems in earlier centuries too, it is still the foreign policy realm that has been instrumental in causing disturbances in Russia and the subsequent weakening of the country.

War with Japan in 1904-1905 ushered in the 1905 Revolution, while twelve years later, WWI caused the February and October revolutions. During the Soviet Union, the war in Afghanistan was one of the defining moments in the decline of the first Communist state and its eventual disintegration.

This brings to mind current geopolitical circumstances in and around Russia. As said, internally the country experiences problems, but they do not suffice to make the Russian government change the course the state has taken. Like in previous historical examples, foreign pressure on Russia could be instrumental to there being any changes. There are some arguments for this theory.

The current crisis between Russia and the West, the product of many fundamental geopolitical differences in both the former Soviet space and elsewhere, will remain unabated at least for the coming years. The successful western expansion into what was always considered the “Russian backyard” halted Moscow’s projection of power and diminished its reach into the north of Eurasia – between fast-developing China, Japan, and other Asian countries and the technologically modern European landmass.

But this too might not be enough. Direct Russian military involvement in foreign countries is what the Russians fear most. Westerners hoped that the Russian troops would be bogged down in Syria, it did not happen. Similarly, many thought Ukraine might have turned into the major battleground, but it does not seem so.

Thus, nowadays, we see how Russia is lagging and how much has it lost throughout the last several decades in the former Soviet space. But internal problems alone do not suffice for radical changes in Russia. In fact, Russian history shows that foreign military pressure is fundamental and this is what Russia does not have for the moment.

This article was published at Georgia Today.