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Vietnam Ready For A Seat At The UN Security Council – Analysis

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By James Borton

At the UN Secretariat building, sheathed in shiny aluminum, glass, and marble, and overlooking New York’s East River, Vietnamese diplomats are quietly and purposefully campaigning for a non-permanent member seat at the UN Security Council table. Last week’s unexpected death of Vietnam President Tran Dai Quang has ratcheted up conversations and stakes, especially with Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc’s arrival in New York.

For the purpose of electing non-permanent members of the UN Security Council, candidates are selected by one of five geographic blocs. Vietnam belongs to the 54-nation Asia Pacific Group.

Vietnam’s importance in international security has risen prominently since last year’s Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, when it successfully hosted presidents Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin, along with other regional leaders in Danang, a beautiful coastal city in central Vietnam.

Over the past three decades, Hanoi has received global recognition as a responsible member of the international community. Hanoi has adopted market institutions that have led to more than two decades of impressive economic performance. All while leaving the country’s underlying political economy largely intact.

Notably, Vietnam has achieved greater integration with the international economic system, namely through its ascension to the World Trade Organization in 2007. In October 2007, Vietnam was elected for the first time a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, receiving 183 out of 190 votes for the 2008-2009 term. As a testimony to its Asia Pacific leadership, it was a unanimous nominee of the Asia Pacific Group in the General Assembly.

The new permanent representative of Vietnam to the United Nations, H.E. Ambassador Dang Dinh Quy spoke last month to the United Nations Security Council in an open debate on “mediation and settlement of disputes.” He reaffirmed the UN’s diplomacy and peace charter, including promoting the use of mediation throughout any conflict cycle. He stated that “Vietnam reaffirms the vital importance of regional organizations in the maintenance of international peace and security.”

Prime Minister Phuc’s presence at the UN sends a clear message to the Security Council that Hanoi is committed to cooperating with ASEAN in proactively promoting dialogue and mutual understanding, and fostering an environment of cooperation and friendship in the region.

The UN General Assembly will vote on non-permanent membership in June 2019.

UN member nations generally recognize Vietnam’s important role in the promotion of struggles for national independence, sovereignty, and self-determination. Also, Hanoi has been quick to understand the significance and importance of the UN’s central role in maintaining international peace and security.

Vietnam’s successful march to the UN was punctuated by the remarkable steps made from 1995 to 1999, including the normalization of diplomatic and trade relations with the United States. The country’s integration with the West opened up opportunities to work with the world’s international organizations, including multilateral donors such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.

Although not quite overnight for those who suffered the wounds of war, Hanoi became a member of ASEAN (1995) and APEC (1998). The US-Vietnam bilateral trading agreement was signed in 2001, and accelerated the political will to speed up negotiations on Vietnam’s ascension to the World Trade Organization (WTO.)

A central part of its openness and engagement with the world has been the country’s willingness to acquire a more prominent voice and position in the United Nations. This has been most evident in its successful efforts to join UN peacekeeping operations in early 2014. This bold action has enabled closer ties to unfold with the United States, a former enemy and now comprehensive partner.

Despite spending a half-century at war, Hanoi has lost no time in supporting UN initiatives that highlight the fundamental principles of international laws and the Charter in addressing international conflicts through peaceful means. For example, the Vietnamese government has embraced the UN’s “Delivering as One (DAO)” plan, while simultaneously implementing sustainable development practices in the country’s high-priority poor provinces.

Vietnam adopts One UN Initiative

Vietnam successfully adopted the “One UN Initiative” in 2006 and adopted DAO’s four pillars of UN reform: one plan, one budget, one leader, and one set of management practices. Hanoi added ‘one green UN house’ as another part of its implementation. As a result, Vietnam has emerged as a global leader in the promotion and implementation of the aid effectiveness agenda. At the heart of this UN-directed plan is the intent and resolve of the UN to achieve a more strategic and effective contribution to the attainment of national development priorities.

Hanoi, in cooperation with the UNDP and the Ministry of Planning and Investment, has designed a set of sustainable development indicators (SDIs) and established a database for monitoring sustainable development in Vietnam. As a result, the country has met many of the UN’s millennium development goals, particularly with regards to the eradication of extreme poverty, expansion of universal primary education, promotion of gender equality and empowerment of women, and reduction of child mortality. Of course, more work and resources are still needed to combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases.

Most importantly, in pledging to meet the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, Vietnam Prime Minister Phuc approved the national action ‘Green Goals’ plan last year. He included in the decree that “it’s necessary to mobilize wide participation of the stakeholders, including the social and political organizations, socio-professional organizations, national, and international organizations in the preparation and implementation of the sustainable development goals.”

The UN 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are in alignment with Vietnam’s development strategy. More telling is the government’s political will to mobilize resources and people at all levels to realize these goals. The country’s national action plan pays particular attention to vulnerable groups, especially the poor, people with disabilities, women, and ethnic minorities.

While there are five permanent member of the UN Security Council, also known as the ‘Big Five’ of China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the US, there are a total of 15 UN member states who serve on the UNSC, the remainder of which are elected. Only the five permanent members have the power of veto, which enables them to prevent the adoption of any substantive draft Council resolution.

“During its first tenure in 2008-2009, Vietnam was praised by the United States for its positive contribution and close voting alignment on key issues such as nuclear non-proliferation and counter-terrorism,” states Carl Thayer, Emeritus Professor at the University of New South Wales.

Vietnam’s diplomats recount Vietnam’s role in shielding ASEAN member Myanmar from sanctions in 2008-2009. As a result, Myanmar opened up to Vietnam. Additionally, as a result of its non-permanent membership on the Security Council, Vietnam followed up on its pledge to contribute to UN peacekeeping operations in South Sudan.

As a non-permanent member at the UNSC, Vietnam wants to demonstrate its growing voice in ASEAN, to exercise its soft diplomacy skills, and to extoll its embrace of international integration. This seat at the UNSC table places Hanoi at the highest level of international integration.

After all, Hanoi’s success in integration with global markets has helped shape the country’s reforms. This is revealed in the web of its 16 free trade agreements (FTAs).

Vietnam plays peacemaker in South China Sea

The current global situation is more complicated and relations among global powers, namely the US, China, and Russia, has worsened. Furthermore, over two years has passed since the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague issued its landmark ruling in the Philippines vs. China case, resulting in a nearly unanimous victory for Manila and a reaffirmation for stressing the role of international law in settling South China Sea disputes peacefully.

A surge in naval maneuvers in the South China Sea by Western allies this year, while keeping China from any further expansion into the contested waters, is raising the stakes for possible naval accidents and/or military incidents. Vessels from Australia, France, Japan and the United States have sent ships to the 3.5 million-square-kilometer sea already over the course of 2018.

Despite China’s militarization of these contested islands and sustained attacks on Vietnamese fishing vessels, Vietnam has taken the diplomatic high ground with its senior diplomats, invoking peace and self-restraint in the disputed waters.

 

The opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints expressed by the authors are theirs alone and don’t reflect the official position of Geopoliticalmonitor.com or any other institution.


Food Insecurity: Overcoming Fragmented Food Systems And Trade Wars – Analysis

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Asia is not likely to produce all the food it needs in the foreseeable future. The fragmented nature of Asian food systems is a major reason. Trade has become an important guarantor of food sufficiency for many ASIAN countries. Taken together, fragmented farming systems and trade wars are threats to Asia’s ability to achieve stable food security.

By Paul Teng8

In the past year, Asia’s food systems which link the farmer to the consumer, have been described as “sick” and “need to be fixed” by academic and industry leaders. A recent report Separate Tables: Bringing together Asia’s food systems by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) released on 3 September 2018 affirmed this. It identified six megatrends affecting Asia’s food systems – urbanisation, changing diets, malnutrition, differential adoption of technology, food standards and food politics. Trade was named as one way to overcome some of the challenges posed by these trends.

As a region, Asia does not produce enough food now or is it expected to do so in the foreseeable future, according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). So trade through the geographically-dispersed supply chains which typify current food systems has been the main means for Asia to meet this deficit. Any disruption along these supply chains affects food security.

Trade Tensions and Food Disruptions

The ongoing “tit-for-tat” tariffs between countries could shift the points of origin for commodity supply chains such as those of soybean. One case in point is China’s plan to levy a 25% tariff on imports of US soybeans, an important feed to produce hogs, chicken and fish. In 2016, the top five soybean exporting countries, all from the Americas (United States, Brazil, Argentina, Canada and Paraguay), together accounted for 94% of the world’s volume of available soybeans.

China is the world’s largest soybean importer and in 2016 imported US$34 billion of global soybeans or two-thirds of global supply. With American soybeans potentially costing more to Chinese importers, the US may be giving up market share to other producers like Brazil and Argentina. So other large soybean importers like Japan, South Korea and Indonesia may benefit from a potential drop in US soybean prices if supply there exceeds demand from its traditional largest importer.

But Asia’s demand for food and feed items is not limited to soybean. In the 2017/2018 trade period, Indonesia has been predicted by the US Department of Agriculture to become the world’s largest wheat importer, at about 15 million tonnes! Asia is also a large importer of maize even though the region itself is a large producer in terms of area planted.

Sorting Out Asia’s Food Insecurity

The world is strongly dependent on surplus food production in the Americas and Australasia to maintain global food security balances. Not coincidentally, these regions practice industrialised, technology-based farming on a large scale when compared to Asia’s mainly smallholder food farming which, according to the EIU, currently under-utilises modern technologies. This is particularly the case in the three Asian giants – China, India and Indonesia.

So a bigger question has to be asked: what are the implications for the region of trade conflict between food exporting and food importing countries? Governments need to re-examine their approaches to ensuring national food security and adopt a balance between achieving limited self sufficiency and partial reliance on imports.

There are no inherent contradictions between desiring some level of food self-sufficiency and food importation, as countries like Singapore have shown. Singapore has consistently been rated by the EIU Global Food Security Index as one of the most food secure countries in the world despite importing 90% of its food. In a perfect world, unfettered trade will move food between producers and consumers and an overall increase in production means more will be available for trade.

To achieve some level of self-sufficiency, governments and the private sector will need to address the many well-researched issues ̶ small farm size, low productivity, under-exploited use of technology, declining rural populations, agriculture’s declining contribution to GDP and contradictory government policy.

Both the EIU and FAO reports noted similar trends and highlighted that Asia’s fragmented food systems means that solutions must also address the needs of the smallholder farming predominant in Asia (87% of the world’s smallholder farm population). Some optimism may be drawn from the success stories in Asia; this region is already the world’s top producer of many food items, from rice to vegetable oil to fish. So can such successes be repeated for other food items?

Pro-Activating the Future: Mega-Solutions for Megatrends?

Asian governments need to increase their investments in research, technology transfer and extension services to boost farm production by small farmers. These can go a long way to address the so-called megatrends in food systems and Asia’s fragmentation.

The 3 September 2018 EIU report proposed some mega-solutions to the six challenges: considering food security in a more holistic manner; anticipating the convergence of trends to set appropriate policy; improving national capacity to monitor food system performance; and involving the private sector through more directed business strategies.

Addressing the urbanisation phenomenon and the related decline in farmers is not just about making farming more lucrative. It is about making rural living more attractive because as long as rural communities suffer a living standard difference from urban communities because of access to amenities like good schools and income gaps, the rural to urban migration will continue.

At least four of the EIU report’s megatrends can also be tackled by cities developing urban farming with technology-enabled agriculture. This is a fast growing industry in the US, China, Japan, Korea and even Singapore where proximity to consumers, creative use of space for plant factories which buffer against variable weather, is helping to feed cities with fresh vegetables.

Assuring food security in the future will further require that Asian countries start putting in place policies and action to reduce food waste and moderate the rate of loss of land and water resources for food production. The rise of agtech (agricultural technology) and fintech (financial technology) in Asia will help accelerate progress in all three by making new technologies and information accessible to small farmers.

Finally, as I have said in an earlier commentary, a “Glocal” (Think Global, Act Local) approach is needed to address the connectivity between mega-trends and action solutions at local levels.

*Paul Teng is Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. He formerly held leadership positions at The WorldFish Centre, The International Rice Research Institute and Monsanto Company.

Pakistan: Deen Aaya – OpEd

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By Vice Admiral (Retd) Vijay Shankar*

The impact of organised religion on nations has historically been a sense of contrived significance, but in essence has neither refined society nor elevated power status. The case of civilizational encounters is curious. The vanquished wontedly looked backwards for spiritual succour while succumbing to the influences of the aggressor; in the process, dogmas and rituals replaced inventiveness as the spirit that propelled development calcified (Toynbee, 1957). This state is symptomatic of a society in the throes of derangement. A failed response to the challenges of plurality and vigour of competing belief systems is thus marked by religious masquerade and a despairing choice inspired by fundamental ideologies. In the past, the Egyptiac world, Judaism and Christianity have succumbed to this fanatic impulse. Ironically, primitive Islam was spiritually tolerant of civilisations that it considered allied to as ‘People of the Book’. It is no coincidence that this very period saw Islamic civilisation flourish. Contemporary political Islamic movements are, however, marked by failed responses; the more radical, the more savage towards the idea of plurality and renewal.

In the recently concluded elections to the Pakistan National Assembly, the Tehreek-i-Labbaik (TLP) polled nearly two and a quarter million votes (Election Commission of Pakistan), making it the fifth largest political party in that country. While this may not have readily translated to seats in the National Assembly, what it stands for is ‘street power’ of the radical Islam variety. Regaling the event, their chief, Allama Khadim Husain Rizvi narrated a grisly electoral episode from Nawabshah, a district in Sindh. “We were singing our anthem Deen Aaya, when the Peoples Party (PPP) camp started playing their electioneering jingles; we asked them to stop because our hymn was in veneration of Allah, but their leader spurned our entreaty.” Imagine ‘Allah’s wrath’, for that very night the PPP leader breathed his last. The next morning it was God’s will that all of the PPP followers switched their loyalty to the TLP!

TLP shot to prominence when it opposed the 2016 hanging of Mumtaz Qadri, convicted in 2011of assassinating the governor of Pakistan’s Punjab province. Born in 1966 in Attock, Punjab, Rizvi, a self-acclaimed Barelvi cleric, was in government in the department of religious affairs, the auqaf. He was soon removed for radical activism. A paraplegic, he became deeply involved in organising public support for harsher and more invasive blasphemy laws. In November 2017, his siege of Islamabad for this cause paralysed the capital for over three weeks. The government and its law enforcement agencies made an abortive attempt to curb the mayhem but only succeeded in spreading protests to all the major cities. It was the army chief’s personal intervention that defused the situation with the offer of unconditional capitulation of the state to more severe blasphemy laws, sacking of the Federal Minister for Law Zahid Hamid, and the release of all prisoners taken. The siege of Islamabad was lifted. Allama Khadim Husain Rizvi had arrived; it is reported with a ‘little’ help from the army.

Karachi was a distant frontier for the TLP whose home grounds were the radical madrassas of South Punjab (Bhawalpur, Multan, Mianwali, Dera Ghazi Khan etc.) Their electoral gains in Karachi owed largely to pulpit intimidation, violence and menacing politics. The city, latterly dominated by the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), represents Pakistan’s Urdu-speaking mohajir, immigrant community. The odious ‘mohajir’ moniker was dropped from its name and replaced by the less unpalatable muttahida (united). The MQM is known for its muscular methods in Karachi; it had in the past controlled the vote in the inner city and its immediate urban enclaves through a grid that organised the city’s underworld. Aided by the army, the TLP broke up these networks. The mosque became the platform from where the message of redemption was hammered home, in a manner and scale not seen since the call for jihad to fight the US invasion of Afghanistan. The argument now was that since the people of Karachi had committed crimes and violence for mortal reasons, atonement in the eyes of God was only possible if these same people took up Allah’s cause by volunteering their time and labour for the TLP. An irreverent ‘Anschluss’ between the deep state, piety and politics now paved the way for the electoral success of the Army’s willing protégé, Imran and his Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI).

Central to the strategy was infusing politics with ritual, a messianic propagation of the Barelvi belief system, and of the TLP’s near prophet-like paraplegic leader and his ‘mystical’ powers over followers.  The irony is that of the two Sunni sects, the Barelvi was seen as the more reticent and less prone to militancy than the orthodox Salafist-driven Deobandis. Meanwhile, the legend of how deen has managed to purify and chasten non-believers flourishes despite being in mortal conflict with what makes for a democratic state. The question at the core is, what makes Pakistan more susceptible to ideological blackmail from such extreme shades of the religious right?

Ideological blackmail is potentially congenital to the Islamic state particularly when a myth of Islam-in-danger becomes the testament. To fully appreciate this phenomenon, one goes back in recent history to Partition. The disproportionate security apparatus that Pakistan inherited and the communal basis of award (33 per cent of the military as opposed to 18 per cent demography, 23 per cent landmass and 18 per cent of financial assets) fuelled the idea that Islam, communal hatred and perpetual hostility towards India were innate to the separation of the Muslim nation. Also, an army under the banner of Islam was an imperative to forge unity and guard both ideological and geographic frontiers of the fledgling state. That the concept not only gained salience but is also an abiding characteristic of the strategic culture that the army has carefully nurtured is today the idea of Pakistan.

And, in August 2018, when the Dutch politician Geert Wilders comes along and announces that he would hold a Prophet Mohammed cartoon contest that was a thinly veiled attempt to attack and provoke one of Wilders’ favourite whipping-boys, Islam; the TLP seized the opportunity to once again show its strength. On cue, lakhs of TLP supporters made their way to Islamabad to demand Pakistan sever diplomatic ties with the Netherlands or face a repeat of the siege of the capital. Why did Wilders call off the contest? It could not have been for economic reasons since the Netherlands’ GDP at US$ 830 billion is almost threefold of Pakistan’s, while bilateral trade is less than US$ 1.2 billion, nor could it be any influence that Islamabad wields for they have little of that (there was of course the threat of jihadi violence).The probable cause for cancellation was perhaps the fragile situation in Afghanistan which James Mattis explained as “co-existence of violence and progress” against a backdrop of stability. President Ashraf Ghani was less cryptic when he offered an unconditional peace proposal to the Taliban; a ceasefire, recognition of the Taliban, elections afresh, and a constitutional review. Any disruption of this process, in US’ perspective, may have provided space for exceptionable Chinese and Russian interference. So it could be that it was the US that reined in Wilders. At any rate, the cancellation served to enhance Khadim Rizvi’s notional power across continents and the reality that his ideas found resonance with leaders and elites in mainstream political parties. That this has happened raises the question, how close to being an extremist state is Pakistan?

As this question is pondered, comes Deen and the news that the Pakistan Supreme Court has sacked Atif Mian, a Princeton economist from the PM’s Economic Advisory Council for being an Ahmadi, and in quick succession lifted the international ban on the terror proscribed Hafeez Sayeed’s outfit the Jamaat-ud-Dawa.

*Vice Admiral (Retd) Vijay Shankar is former Commander-in-Chief, Strategic Forces Command of India.

Managing The India-Bangladesh Border – Analysis

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By Dr Joyeeta Bhattacharjee*

India and Bangladesh border management cooperation got a major boost following the meeting between the directors general (DGs) of India’s Border Security Force (BSF) and Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB). The meeting, 47th in the series of dialogues between the top commanders of India and Bangladesh’s border guarding forces, took place in Delhi in early September. The meeting provided an opportunity for free and frank discussions on various issues concerning management of the common borders and contributed to a better understanding of each other’s stance. The meeting was a reassurance Indian and Bangladeshi commitments to further enhance cooperation on border management.

BGB chief Major General Md Shafeenul Islam led a 13-member delegation from Bangladesh for the meeting. An equal number of officials led by BSF Director General KK Sharma represented India. The two sides sought each other’s cooperation in tackling a wide variety of issues. The priority issues for India were preventing cross-border attacks by criminal gangs on BSF personnel, joint efforts to prevent trans-border crimes, action against Indian Insurgent Groups (IIGs), border infrastructure, joint efforts for effective implementation of the Comprehensive Border Management Plan, simultaneous coordinated patrolling, identification of vulnerable areas, sharing of information, and  confidence-building measures. For Bangladesh, the important issues were trans-border crimes, smuggling of various types of drugs/narcotics, arrests/apprehension of Bangladeshi nationals, expansion of crime free zones, etc.

The meeting of the BSF and BGB DGs was instituted in 1975 and it is a crucial border management security cooperation mechanism between the two countries. India and Bangladesh share a 4096 km-long porous border, thus making it vulnerable to various transnational crimes like smuggling of arms, narcotics, fake currency and human trafficking. Besides, the porous border has encouraged cross-border networks of insurgent and militant groups, threatening the security of both countries. India and Bangladesh thus realise that cooperation is necessary to tackle challenges at the border.

The DG-level meetings have hitherto played a constructive role in the growth of cooperation on border management between India and Bangladesh. For example, India introduced non-lethal weapons at the Bangladesh border following an agreement signed by the two in 2010 in order to reduce deaths of Bangladeshis at the border.. The move has not only been helpful in reducing Bangladeshi deaths but has also contributed to building trust between the troops and among the people of Bangladesh, for whom these deaths at the border often evokes anti-India emotions. The sustained dialogue has contributed in the deepening of confidence amongst the two forces. Today, there is willingness on the both sides to listen to each other’s concerns and to work jointly in addressing challenges. The Coordinated Border Management Plan signed in 2011 between India and Bangladesh to check trans-border illegal activities and crimes highlights this cooperative approach.

As suggested by the outcomes of the meeting, the recent meeting emphasised the principle of cooperation. To address concerns over the death of Bangladeshis at the border and the attack on BSF personnel by Bangladeshi criminals, the two agreed to take preventive actions to stop criminals/offenders from crossing the international border. They agreed to take measures to prevent illegal border crossing and trafficking and to facilitate early rescue and rehabilitation of the victims as per the law of the land. In addition, India and Bangladesh agreed to take legal measures against those who wilfully violate the international border so that they are tried according to the laws of the respective countries, and the inadvertent crossers are handed over to the concerned border guarding force immediately. Further, the meeting approved various pending border developmental works – a priority for India.

Considering the success of the crime-free zone established in the southern Bengal frontier, the two sides agreed to set up similar zones in other frontiers. Stressing the need for joint action to check cross-border criminal activities like smuggling of fake Indian currency and narcotics from India to Bangladesh, both pledged to continue the cooperation.

Responding to India’s request to eliminate the remnants of IIGs, the BGB chief said that there are no IIG hideouts in Bangladesh. He, however, assured that his country will not allow its soil to be used by any entities or elements hostile to any country. Earlier, Bangladesh had acted against the IIGs that were operating from its territory, which was a turning point for the India-Bangladesh bilateral relationship.

The DG meeting reviewed the state of cooperation on border management and gave necessary direction for the growth of cooperation. It provided a major impetus to sustain the momentum for continuing bilateral cooperation on border management.

 

*Dr Joyeeta Bhattacharjee is a Senior Fellow with the Neighbourhood Regional Studies Initiative, Observer Research Foundation (ORF). All views are the author’s own.

BIMSTEC: Why It Matters – Analysis

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The recently concluded BIMSTEC Summit in Nepal presents signs of optimism and the comeback of the Bay of Bengal as a new strategic space. What is its significance?

By Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy*

The economic and strategic significance of the Bay of Bengal is growing rapidly with the re-emergence of the idea of the ‘Indo-Pacific’ region. This notion assumes that the growing economic, geopolitical and security connections between the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean regions are creating a shared strategic space.

The Bay is evolving as the centre of the Indo-Pacific region again. The renewed focus has given a new lease of life to the developmental efforts in the region, in particular the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation or BIMSTEC.

Outlining Changes

To revive the region as a distinct community and to promote regional cooperation among the Bay of Bengal’s littoral states, BIMSTEC was established on 6 June 1997 as a regional organisation comprising seven states (five from South Asia: Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka; and two from Southeast Asia: Myanmar and Thailand).

As the BIMSTEC process enters the third decade of its existence, it has yet to make visible progress in advancing concrete cooperation among the member states. In the last two years, however, member states have invested some fresh energy to make BIMSTEC a valuable institution for regional integration and collaboration.

BIMSTEC has a huge potential as a natural platform for development cooperation in a rapidly changing Indo-Pacific region, and the Bay of Bengal region can leverage its unique position as a bridge linking South and Southeast Asia.

BIMSTEC had been mostly overlooked until a renewed push came from India in October 2016, when it hosted an outreach summit with leaders of BIMSTEC countries alongside the BRICS summit in Goa. Since then, there have been some progress, in BIMSTEC cooperation in several areas including security, counter-terrorism, transport connectivity and tourism, among others.

Some timely developments, for example, the BIMSTEC National Security Chiefs meeting, disaster management exercise, launching of a hospital and Tele-medicine network, founding of a centre for weather and climate, meetings of business chambers and industry associations, helped maintain the momentum. Ministerial and senior officials’ meetings motivated member countries for strengthening cooperation in key sectors.

Building Bay of Bengal Region

Reflecting the growing geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of the Bay of Bengal region, the 4th BIMSTEC Summit was held in Kathmandu on 30-31 August and has generated optimism in the region. The growing value of BIMSTEC and its attempt to generate synergy through collective efforts by member states, can be understood, for three key reasons.

First, there is a greater appreciation of BIMSTEC’s potential due to the geographical contiguity, abundant natural and human resources, rich historical linkages and cultural heritage for promoting deeper cooperation in the region. Indeed, with a changed narrative and approach the Bay of Bengal has potential to become the epicentre of the Indo-Pacific idea – a place where the strategic interests of the major powers of East and South Asia intersect.

Political support and strong commitment from all member countries is crucial for making BIMSTEC a dynamic and, effective regional organisation.

Second, BIMSTEC serves as a bridge between two major high-growth centres of Asia – South and Southeast Asia. Connectivity is essential to develop a peaceful, prosperous and sustainable Bay of Bengal region. Therefore, BIMSTEC needs to address two dimensions of connectivity – one, upgrading and dovetailing of national connectivity into a regional roadmap; and two, development of both hard and soft infrastructures.

BIMSTEC Free Trade Area Emerging?

The discussions on BIMSTEC Coastal Shipping Agreement and the BIMSTEC Motor Vehicle Agreement are in an advanced stage and are likely to be finalised soon. Similarly, leaders are committed to an early conclusion of BIMSTEC Free Trade Area negotiations.

Involvement of industries and business chambers through BIMSTEC Business Forum and BIMSTEC Economic Forum; BIMSTEC startup conclave, BIMSTEC Ministerial conclave at the India Mobile Congress to enhance cooperation in the areas of information technology and communication, are some examples of various steps taken during the summit.

While, the summit has addressed all BIMSTEC priority areas, namely, poverty alleviation, connectivity, trade and investment, counter terrorism and transnational crime, environment and disaster management, climate change, energy, technology, agriculture, fisheries, public health, people-to-people contacts, cultural cooperation, tourism, mountain economy and blue economy, there are no lofty promises in the declaration. There is an attempt to follow up on earlier announcements and to focus on a concrete action plan.

Third, the leaders agreed to enhance the institutional capacity of the BIMSTEC Secretariat in order to enable the Secretariat to coordinate, monitor and facilitate implementation of BIMSTEC activities and programmes. Similarly, preparation of a draft charter for the BIMSTEC, enhancing its visibility and stature in international fora, is an important step forward. Likewise, India has committed to set up a Centre for Bay of Bengal Studies at the Nalanda University for research on art, culture and other subjects in the Bay of Bengal.

BIMSTEC: Alternative to SAARC?

India’s Ministry of External Affairs remarked in a press briefing before the Summit that BIMSTEC links the unique ecology of the Himalayas to the Bay of Bengal, reflecting the growing political support and commitment from India.

Some experts also envisage BIMSTEC as an alternative to the SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) process. Indeed, BIMSTEC holds a special significance for India in a changing mental map of the region.

Certainly, making the Bay of Bengal integral to India’s ‘Neighbourhood First” and ‘Act East” policies could accelerate the process of regional integration. Therefore, BIMSTEC matters for India and for the region.

*Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy is a Visiting Fellow in the Office of Executive Deputy Chairman at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

J&K: Political Stability And The 2019 Lok Sabha Elections – Analysis

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By Sarral Sharma*

Two years since Hizbul Mujahideen (HM) Commander Burhan Wani’s encounter killing in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Centre in New Delhi continues to face multiple political challenges in the state. More importantly, there continues to be a perception gap between New Delhi and Srinagar on how to handle outstanding domestic political and security issues in J&K. Prevailing circumstances indicate that New Delhi is likely to face an uphill task as it tries to improve the political situation in the Kashmir Valley in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Conducting the long overdue elections for the Panchayat, urban local bodies, State Assembly and the 2019 Lok Sabha polls in J&K will be the top priority for the central government. Other priority issues towards fostering a conducive election environment include: improving intra-state relations between Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh; initiating dialogue with stakeholders; and restoring confidence among those who appear to have lost faith in the country’s democratic institutions.

Political Situation in J&K
The BJP is already in election mode in preparation for key state elections that are scheduled to take place over the next few months, followed by Lok Sabha polls in 2019. As a result, New Delhi may prioritise issues relevant at the national level over addressing state-level political issues in J&K. Growing local militancy and related developments in the character of the militancy are likely to exacerbate the prevailing security situation in the Valley, and will collectively continue to hinder New Delhi’s efforts to improve the situation in Kashmir.

Incidentally, the recent breakup of the BJP-People’s Democratic Party (PDP) coalition government in J&K, followed by Governor’s Rule, did provide some local relief in Kashmir. PDP supporters, mostly from the militancy affected South Kashmir region, felt betrayed after the party entered an alliance with the BJP in 2015. In fact, even the PDP was uncomfortable with BJP’s ‘muscular’ Kashmir policy, among other political differences, as regular killings of local militants and civilians impacted the party’s influence in the Valley. Therefore, the breakup of the BJP-PDP alliance can be viewed as a failure to manage differing perceptions in New Delhi and Srinagar on issues related to domestic politics and security in Kashmir.

The J&K legislative assembly stands suspended since the BJP-PDP breakup in June 2018. It is unclear yet as to whether the central government will call for ‘fresh’ elections in the state or attempt to form a new alliance with dissident members of the PDP, National Conference (NC) and some independent legislators. For now, it seems unlikely that the BJP would take the unnecessary risk of forming a new coalition before the 2019 parliamentary elections, as that might not last long and could lead to more chaos in the state.

Similarly, the main opposition parties–PDP, NC and Congress–will not form an alliance due to apparent political and ideological differences. Interestingly, there is a growing demand for a new political alternative–a new political party or a new coalition–in Kashmir, outside the traditional options: PDP, NC or Congress. It is possible that New Delhi might not rush to look for that alternative in the prevailing unstable environment in the Valley, albeit such an option cannot be ruled out in the near future. For now, Governor’s Rule will likely continue given how the odds of government formation in J&K are limited.

In that case, the governor’s role becomes crucial to address issues related to local politics and governance in the state while regularly monitoring the security situation in the Valley. The new governor, Satya Pal Malik, faces the difficult task of simultaneously resolving the governance deficit in the state; accelerating development activities; engaging with local mainstream political parties; and continuing strong counter-terror measures in J&K. However, his main task is to initiate political activity in the state. Holding successful Panchayat and urban local bodies’ elections will be a step in the right direction. More importantly, these elections will pave the way for the J&K State Assembly and the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

Looking Ahead
Conducting these elections will pose a massive security challenge for the local administration. Although security agencies have claimed that they possess the capacity to provide sufficient security during the elections, the threat of possible militant attacks on political workers and J&K state administration officials looms large. In the present security environment in the Valley, it will be crucial for the governor and his administration to convince the people to participate in the elections.

Any delay in these elections would create more problems for the central government. For instance, intra-regional differences between Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh have increased since the 2016 Wani encounter. Regular shutdowns in the Kashmir Valley in the past two years also impacted everyday governance in other regions of the state. Therefore, these elections are pivotal to address grassroot governance issues, and any delay will only fuel more anger and may lead to further intra-state differences.

The bigger challenge for New Delhi is in addressing the perception gap between Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh. Only after resolving intra-state differences can the BJP-led Centre bridge the gap between New Delhi and Srinagar. For that to happen, the Centre will require to conduct regular dialogue with internal stakeholders such as educationists, civil society representatives, local businessmen, separatists and state political leaders from all three regions.

New Delhi would not want to witness a repeat of the 2017 Srinagar parliamentary by-poll which was marred by violence and witnessed a meagre seven per cent voter turnout. The situation on the ground has not changed much since 2017. To conduct the forthcoming polls and to form a stable democratically-elected government in J&K, New Delhi will need to bridge the above mentioned perception gaps in the coming months.

*Sarral Sharma
Researcher, Centre for Internal and Regional Security (IReS)

Rise Of US A Lesson For China – OpEd

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The rise of new powers usually follows a massive global or economic shock engulfing a certain region or the world as a whole.

China’s ascendance in the last several decades in the economic and military realms brings to mind various theories that a definitive change in the balance of power is or will be taking place in the near future.

In fact, China has often been compared to pre-World War I Germany. The latter had an ambition to attain a dominant position in eastern Europe, including large portions of the Russian Empire. The Germans were expanding their economic reach to the Middle East and, most importantly, it was not long before they came to pose a serious challenge to Great Britain’s naval dominance.

China, like Germany a century ago, also aspires to build a larger military navy and increase its economic potential abroad. However, rather than comparing China to Germany, which was defeated in both world wars, it would be in some sense expedient to compare the modern China to its current geopolitical competitor, the United States of late 19th-early 20th century.

There are many similarities between the two. China nowadays in some ways is facing a new world and new opportunities which had been closed to her for centuries. Surrounded by an arc of almost impregnable geographic barriers, China’s heartland produced enough to sustain a self-sufficient economy. The 19th century amounted to a national catastrophe as European powers assailed China for economic gains, while in the early 20th century, Japan’s hegemony undermined any Chinese attempts to revive the state.

Thus, China has never been a global power and does not clearly see what kind of world order it wants to build. Everything about modern Chinese foreign policy moves shows the country is still developing its “world order ideas”.

Like the US in the early 20th century, China nowadays feels that it has to assume a more powerful internationalist stance as her economic appetite makes it inexpedient to rely on the benevolence of other powers. At the same time, again like the US before, China is also reluctant as it fears that a more “global China” could ignite suspicions around the world of nascent Chinese dominance.

China today portrays her actions as a policy which benefits not only her, but the entire world. At the same time, China sees that there is a certain necessity to increase her military potential both at sea and on land.

The US too, 100 years ago, cast her policies as peaceful and non-interventionist in other countries’ internal affairs. However, it was the young United States which had a “manifest destiny” to expand its influence into North America and the waters around the continent.

Like modern China, the US a hundred years ago did not openly aspire, nor really plan, to acquire global dominance. The then-US statesmen only gradually started to see that the country needed to take a more active geopolitical role by influencing political developments in Europe and Asia-Pacific.

Modern China also resembles the younger US as they both have a view that the world can benefit from them economically and through the way they plan to (re-) create the world order.

How the US was catapulted from a domination over North America in the early 20th century to global pre-eminence after 1945 serves as a good explanatory case on the rise and fall of great powers. China could learn a lot from the American rise, a story of the gradual build-up of military and economic power coupled with attractive cultural features.

The rise of new powers does not happen quickly: it takes decades of meticulous work. That could explain why China’s comparison with Germany of the early 20th century is a flawed one. Kaisers’ Germany was powerful, but its human and economic potential could not match that of the allied powers.

China, on the contrary, possesses a large population as well as enough economic potential to try to challenge the existing balance of power.

Though similarities exist, this does not lead to a clear-cut conclusion that, like the US’ rise to global pre-eminence, China will do the same.

The US began to dominate the oceans and parts of Eurasia only after its major geopolitical contenders in Europe fought two deadly wars and destroyed the European world order. The US also acted from a safe geographic position: oceans essentially precluded the then powers from reaching North America.

China’s geographic position, on the other hand, is a continental one, surrounded from the east by the US-led Asian countries nestled on a chain of islands.

That said, historical comparisons show that the rise of new powers is always followed by conflicts, and often one conflict alone does not suffice to alter the balance of power. Carthage lost its power after two long wars with Rome, and Europe lost its grandeur after two world conflicts. Perhaps the same will go for China’s rise too, as it has yet to be seen that a dominant state willingly gives up its position.

This article was published by Georgia Today

Defining the Obama Doctrine, Its Pitfalls, and How to Avoid Them – Analysis

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By Kim Holmes and James Carafano

American Presidents become known for “signature” statements and responses to foreign policy and national security challenges. Ronald Reagan is known for his efforts to defeat Communism and advance “peace through strength.” Bill Clinton is remembered for his argument that military interventions, such as his humanitarian intervention in the former Yugoslavia, are justified “where our values and our interests are at stake and where we can make a difference.”[1]

It is fashionable to describe presidential statements or responses to foreign policy challenges as “doctrine.” As Barack Obama’s second year in office winds down, there are increasing references to an “Obama Doctrine,” including comparisons to what it is not (the Bush Doctrine, for example).

Doctrines by themselves are not legally binding declarations. Nor are they always ideas embraced as such by the Presidents in whose names they are declared. Rather, they are clearly expressed principles and policies, often deduced by consensus, which set the tone for how each Administration intends to act on the world stage. Doctrines clarify how a President views America’s role in the world and his strategy for relations with other nations.

During Obama’s first year in office, no widely repeated description of an Obama Doctrine emerged. One reason may be that for much of that time, domestic policy battles took center stage. But since pushing his health care bill through Congress and successfully taking on Wall Street, the President has turned more of his attention to international issues, and based on a number of statements he has made and documents he has issued, it is possible to describe the set of ideas and policies—in line with the customs described here—that make up his doctrine.

President Obama may have coined the phrase that best characterizes this doctrine in a speech in Trinidad and Tobago in April 2009. He said that America would reach out to other countries as “an equal partner” rather than as the “exceptional” nation that many before him had embraced. During his first meeting with the Group of 20 economies in Europe, Obama went further, saying that he does believe in American exceptionalism, but “just as I suspect that the Brits believe in British exceptionalism and the Greeks believe in Greek exceptionalism.”[2]

Obama expanded this theme of America as “equal partner” in Cairo in June 2009: “Given our interdependence,” he said, “any world order that elevates one nation or group of people over another will inevitably fail. So whatever we think of the past, we must not be prisoners of it. Our problems must be dealt with through partnership; progress must be shared.”[3]

To demonstrate that he fully believes in what he has proclaimed, he has laid out in his public statements the tenets of his doctrine that will enable his Administration to remake America as one nation among many, with no singular claim either to responsibility or exceptionalism:

America will ratify more treaties and turn to international organizations more often to deal with global crises and security concerns like nuclear weapons, often before turning to our traditional friends and allies;
America will emphasize diplomacy and “soft power” instruments such as summits and foreign aid to promote its aims and downplay military might;
America will adopt a more humble attitude in state-to-state relations; and
America will play a more restrained role on the international stage.

These tenets may be well-intentioned, ostensibly to improve America’s standing in the world, but they will make America and the world far more insecure. Examining President Obama’s doctrinal statements and actions more closely demonstrates why reasserting American leadership on behalf of liberty would be the wiser course.

The Precedents of American Exceptionalism

The idea that the United States is an “exceptional” nation has been a part of the American story ever since the country’s founding. In his first inaugural address, President George Washington said that the “preservation of the sacred fire of liberty and the destiny of the republican model of government are justly considered as deeply, perhaps as finally, staked on the experiment entrusted to the hands of the American people.”[4] This form of government, based on the principles of liberty and government of and by the people, had not been tried, and its future depended on every generation of Americans protecting and preserving it.

Since then, most Presidents in some fashion or another have acknowledged that America plays a special role in history. It is a view deeply ingrained in the American conscience that has been manifested in the foreign policies of America’s Presidents in traditional and even “progressive” terms. But few if any of our leaders before President Obama expressed the view that the United States was merely a country just like any other.

America’s more memorable Presidents, in fact, have been those who left a lasting impression about how the United States orients itself to the outside world. They combined the pressing demands of their times with the universal principles of America’s Founding to leave a legacy in American foreign policy. Many of their policies were groundbreaking and controversial, but they shared a common perspective: that the U.S. is truly a remarkable country that therefore has responsibilities beyond those of other countries.

Particularly good examples are the policies of George Washington, James Monroe, Harry Truman, and Ronald Reagan in response to the challenges they faced.

George Washington. Among the Founding Fathers, George Washington proved himself adept at safeguarding the young nation’s interests. In his first State of the Union address, he advised Congress to consider as one of its highest priorities the matter of providing for the common defense: “To be prepared for war,” Washington said, “is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace.” If Congress intended to ensure the young country’s survival, it must take steps to strengthen and protect it, particularly by establishing a national defense system.

While that statement could be called Washington’s doctrine, it is not what some historians cite. Rather, they refer to a statement he made at the very end of his presidency in his Farewell Address. The challenges Washington faced in keeping friendly relations with other countries so as not to take sides in their wars led him to warn his countrymen “to steer clear of permanent alliances with any portion of the foreign world.”[5] This statement was not isolationist, as some today portray it. Washington believed that temporary alliances, particularly in the areas of commerce and defense, were justified, but he also believed it would not be wise for a fledgling country to become embroiled, through permanent political alliances, in conflicts between European states that had little interest in seeing the American experiment succeed.[6]

His warning also does not describe his actual policies as President. President Washington in fact signed several treaties—with Great Britain, Algeria, and Spain. He did not fear making binding commitments to other nations. His statement at the end of his presidency is less a declaration of an unchanging absolute than a statement of prudential, principled policymaking: Always remember that, as global conditions change, America will need the freedom to engage (or not to engage, as the case may be) with other nations in ways that protect her freedoms and security and best serve her interests.

President Washington’s actions in the world and his interactions with Congress firmly established the Framers’ intent that Presidents play the principal role in American statecraft, with the appropriate checks and balances from the legislative branch.

James Monroe. In 1823, President James Monroe used his State of the Union address to declare that the American continents were “not to be considered as subject for future colonization” by interested European powers.[7] The Monroe Doctrine became a fundamental principle of U.S. foreign policy throughout the modern era.

Monroe and his successors knew the credibility of their doctrine rested on British naval mastery and their common interest in diminishing the interest of foreign states in the Western Hemisphere.[8] Of course, the U.S. could have passively enjoyed British naval protection, but President Monroe chose instead to articulate the political differences between the United States and certain other countries in order to explain why America was committed to the principles on which republican self-government is based.

John Quincy Adams, the principal author of the Monroe Doctrine, argued that it would be “more candid, as well as more dignified, to avow our principles explicitly.”[9] Although substantively different from any other U.S. foreign policy until that time, the Monroe Doctrine was remarkably consistent with the character and principles of American diplomacy and foreign policy since Washington.

Harry Truman. With the unfolding of the Cold War after World War II, President Harry Truman enunciated what became known as the Truman Doctrine, a declaration of America’s support for peoples threatened with Communist aggression.[10] He built on that doctrine with the Marshall Plan and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. His strategy of containment was based on deeply held American values and principles.

For Truman, historian Elizabeth Edwards Spalding explains, the Cold War was “a conflict between good and evil, between freedom and tyranny, between liberal democracy and totalitarianism, between capitalism and communism.”[11] The Korean War prompted him to invest more heavily in a credible U.S. defense. By the end of his presidency, the Truman Doctrine had become the precedent that successive Presidents would use to enunciate some sort of doctrine.

Ronald Reagan. President Reagan’s 1985 State of the Union address clarified and made public a doctrine he had already adopted: to give “overt and unashamed support for anticommunist revolution” based on justice, necessity, and democratic tradition, as Charles Krauthammer described Reagan’s remarks.[12] Reagan had already started implementing that doctrine through classified national security directives. His statement before Congress exemplifies effective presidential doctrine-making.[13]

Reagan proclaimed America’s obligation to impede the spread of Communism everywhere and to bolster indigenous support for democracy. He believed, rightly, that the United States had the capacity to out-compete the Soviet Union and that, by reasserting our resolve, we could accelerate its decline. He pursued a “peace through strength” strategy, revitalizing the U.S. military while promoting economic growth at home and increasing support for oppressed people around the world. And he repeated this doctrine in speeches at home and abroad, including the “evil empire” address to the British Parliament at Westminster Abbey and his “tear down this wall” remarks at the Berlin Wall.

It may not be possible to attribute the collapse of the Soviet Union to any single variable, but Ronald Reagan’s policies and inspiration certainly contributed greatly to it.[14]

Ineffective Doctrine. Ineffective presidential doctrines also have characteristics in common. The most common elements are an overconfidence in international entities, a disregard for the importance of American independence, and far less emphasis on American exceptionalism as it was traditionally understood.

Consider the policies of Woodrow Wilson. At the outset of his presidency, Wilson described his intention to follow a less aggressive, more “ethical” foreign policy than his predecessors had followed. He talked about moral diplomacy and remaining neutral in foreign affairs, relying on economic relations to create a “concert of nations” to keep the peace.

His approach to engagement, however, failed to stem the tide of World War I or prevent America from having to intervene in Europe. An argument could be made that it even spurred Germany to challenge the U.S. After the war, Wilson sought to revive his “concert of nations” idea by establishing the League of Nations, the failed forerunner of the United Nations. He also chose to emphasize soft-power diplomatic tools; he wanted Congress, for example, to issue an official apology to Colombia for U.S. actions in Panama. Congress refused.

Wilson’s brand of foreign policy became synonymous with an American idealism which presumed that traditional exceptionalism was somehow parochial and not universal enough. Ironically, just as this posture failed to stem World War I, it also helped to foster the isolationism of the 1920s and 1930s that inadvertently eased the road into World War II.

Progressive policies like Wilson’s generally reject the grounding of foreign relations in the principles on which this nation was founded—the same principles that undergird American exceptionalism. For progressives, there are no permanent truths; there are only ideals and the progress that skilled elites and the administrative state can bring about with the help of science and technology.[15]

The Obama Doctrine

The dominant characteristics of the Obama Doctrine are more like those of Woodrow Wilson than Washington, Monroe, Truman, or Reagan. Though President Obama has not formally rejected the principles on which America was founded, his statements and actions are consistent with a doctrine that at its core is progressive. That doctrine becomes increasingly apparent.

Though this is a critical time in our history— when terrorists have Americans and liberty in their crosshairs, the U.S. military is strained, and the nation is falling deeper into debt—Obama has made it clear that he will rely more on the “international system” and treaties to address critical problems; he will engage other nations as equals and with restraint; and he will elevate the use of soft power in his foreign policy toolkit. Obama has downplayed America’s military strength and has been reluctant to voice criticisms or consequences to countries that threaten U.S. interests, and he has shown an eagerness to apologize for America’s actions—past or present, real or perceived—to foreign audiences.

President Obama has repeatedly characterized America as just one nation among many and an “equal” partner rather than an indispensable nation with unique resources and experiences that we want to share with the world. Take, for example, his remarks at the Summit of the Americas in April 2009:

I know that promises of partnership have gone unfulfilled in the past, and that trust has to be earned over time. While the United States has done much to promote peace and prosperity in the hemisphere, we have at times been disengaged, and at times we sought to dictate our terms. But I pledge to you that we seek an equal partnership. There is no senior partner and junior partner in our relations; there is simply engagement based on mutual respect and common interests and shared values.[16]

It is a belief and theme he emphasized during his campaign for the presidency. His campaign document on this, “Strengthening Our Common Security by Investing in Our Common Humanity,” declares that:

Barack Obama’s vision of leadership in this new era begins with the recognition of a fundamental reality: the security and well-being of each and every American is tied to the security and well-being of those who live beyond our borders. The United States should provide global leadership grounded in the understanding that the world shares a common security and a common humanity. We must lead not in the spirit of a patron, but the spirit of a partner.[17]

As the following examples will show, President Obama’s policies do not veer from his fundamental view that America, which has no particular claim to greatness, has no unique responsibilities as the world’s greatest historical example of the fruits of freedom.

Downplaying American Sovereignty. President Obama’s National Security Strategy tellingly states on page three that “we must focus American engagement on strengthening international institutions and galvanizing the collective action that can serve common interests.” Several later statements explain how the Administration plans to do that:[18]

“International institutions must more effectively represent the world of the 21st century, with a broader voice—and greater responsibilities—for emerging powers, and they must be modernized to more effectively generate results on issues of global interest.”
“We will draw on diplomacy, development, and international norms and institutions to help resolve disagreements, prevent conflict, and maintain peace, mitigating where possible the need for the use of force.”
“We are pursuing arms control efforts—including the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), ratification and entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, and negotiation of a verifiable Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty—as a means of strengthening our ability to mobilize broad international support for the measures needed to reinforce the non-proliferation regime and secure nuclear materials worldwide.”

None of this is surprising. At a major address at West Point just prior to the release of that document, Obama said, “As [our] influence extends to more countries and capitals, we also have to build new partnerships, and shape stronger international standards and institutions.”[19] Yet consider the response he received to his efforts to do that during his first speech to the United Nations General Assembly in September 2009. He said then that the U.S. “must embrace a new era of engagement based on mutual interest and mutual respect.”[20] Later in the program, Libya’s Muammar Qadhafi criticized the U.S. for its invasion of Grenada, and Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad condemned U.S. operations in Afghanistan. Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez waited until the U.N. climate conference in Copenhagen in December to say that he “still” smelled sulfur on the podium after President Obama spoke—recalling his characterization of the smell after George W. Bush (“the devil”) spoke at the U.N. some years earlier.[21]

When it comes to peacekeeping, Obama is pressing to strengthen the United Nations. During his acceptance speech for the Nobel Prize awarded for his calls to eliminate nuclear weapons, Obama spoke about stronger U.N. and regional peacekeeping efforts so as not to “leave the task to a few countries.”[22]

Many Presidents before Obama have called on the United Nations to fulfill its mandate and play a leading role in achieving peace and security instead of leaving the task to the U.S. and the coalition it could muster. President Bush authorized operations in Iraq only after Saddam Hussein failed to comply with 16 binding U.N. Security Council resolutions (which authorized member states to enforce those resolutions for non-compliance). Yet few Presidents have made it sound as though the leader of the free world did not want to play a leading role in achieving international security. Speaking at a news conference after his nuclear summit in Washington, Obama said:

[W]hether we like it or not, we remain a dominant military superpower, and when conflicts break out, one way or another we get pulled into them. And that ends up costing us significantly in terms of both blood and treasure.[23]

It is one thing to ask the so-called international community to come together to solve crises, and the President is right, as a practical matter: We often get pulled into world conflicts. But it is another to suggest, no matter how subtly, that the United States is weary of or takes a jaundiced view of its global leadership role. Yet that is precisely what this statement implies. The President appears tired of America’s “dominant military superpower” role, which he qualifies with “whether we like it or not.” This is not the clarion call to world leadership that most people expect of American Presidents. Rather, it expresses ambivalence, self-doubt, or even anxiety. It implies a view of America as potentially unwilling or even unable to continue its role as a “dominant military superpower.”

This viewpoint meshes with the President’s desire to engage the United Nations more fully, as if to fill the gap left by a lesser leadership role for the U.S. As the President says:

We’ve also re-engaged the United Nations. We have paid our bills. We have joined the Human Rights Council. We have signed the Convention of the Rights of Persons with Disabilities. We have fully embraced the Millennium Development Goals. And we address our priorities here, in this institution—for instance, through the Security Council meeting that I will chair tomorrow on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament…. The United States stands ready to begin a new chapter of international cooperation—one that recognizes the rights and responsibilities of all nations.[24]

This statement is more rhetorical flourish than hard policy. While it is true that the Obama Administration has used the U.N. Security Council to try to pressure Iran, it is not true that anything else of international strategic significance has happened at the United Nations since Obama took office. If anything, the rhetoric of U.N. engagement has vastly outstripped the limited reality of what can be achieved at the U.N.

Moreover, it is a green light for countries to use the U.N. to pursue their own interests regardless of whether or not those interests conflict with the founding principles and Charter of the U.N. itself. It finds no moral conflict in having human rights abusers sitting on the U.N. Human Rights Council; or for socialist, corrupt, or even repressive countries to sit on the U.N.’s Economic and Social Council to influence discussions on development and governance; or for terrorism-sponsoring nations to block the U.N. from defining an act of terrorism.

In terms of action, the Administration is pursuing an ambitious agenda on international treaties— the most prominent one being the recently signed New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with Russia. In addition, President Obama has signed the U.N. Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities as well as a number of bilateral treaties dealing with mutual legal assistance and tax avoidance and an annex to a protocol on environmental emergencies under the Antarctic Treaty. He has also indicated his intent to seek ratification of a number of old treaties the U.S. has not ratified for various reasons, as well as to sign new ones that pose serious implications for our sovereignty, our system of federalism, and states’ rights. These include the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (LOST), the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW), the treaty on the Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS), the Convention on the Rights of the Child, and a treaty on arms trade.[25]

The ideals behind most of these treaties may be reasonable, even admirable. Indeed, some treaties the U.S. signed are important legal documents. But in every case of a new treaty under consideration for ratification, the onus is on the U.S. government to ensure that the treaty does not compromise America’s security or the rights and freedoms established in the U.S. Constitution. Treaties, when they work best, manage affairs between states and nations. They falter or even become harmful if they overreach into the domestic affairs of nations, which in America are rightly reserved under the U.S. Constitution for the federal–state system of government.

In his Nobel speech, Obama said he is “convinced that adhering to standards, international standards, strengthens those who do, and isolates and weakens those who don’t.”[26] This belief rests on the assumption that all nations signing treaties or agreements that purportedly embody universal “standards” will keep their end of the bargain, but there are many examples of how this has not been the case. For example, more than once the Soviet Union was found to have violated the terms of the now-defunct ABM Treaty[27] and START I.[28]

Another example is CEDAW. Among its signatories is Saudi Arabia, a nation in which women still hold second-class status and have to get permission from a male to do things we take for granted. Being a signatory of CEDAW has not furthered their rights.

For over 30 years, consecutive U.S. Administrations and Senates have failed to approve ratification of CEDAW because of the many problems it will create for our system of government and our laws. Yet a statement posted on the U.S. Department of State’s Web site states that “President Obama’s Administration views CEDAW as a powerful tool for making gender equality a reality. We are committed to U.S. ratification of the Convention.”[29] The same is true for the Convention on the Rights of the Child; in June 2009, Ambassador Susan Rice remarked that Administration officials were actively discussing “when and how it might be possible to join.”[30]

Regarding CTBT, a treaty that the Senate rejected in the past for lacking adequate verification measures and potentially leaving the U.S. vulnerable due to an insufficient nuclear deterrent, the Obama White House press office released this statement:

While the United States sent a delegation to the initial conference in 1999, it has not attended the subsequent four conferences. Accordingly, U.S. participation in this year’s conference will reaffirm the strong commitment of the Obama Administration to support the CTBT and to work with other nations to map out a comprehensive diplomatic strategy to secure the Treaty’s entry into force.[31]

Regarding PAROS and measures such as a “code of conduct” for space, the Administration has indicated that it is ready to help bring these kinds of international agreements into force. The 2010 National Space Policy states: “The United States will consider proposals and concepts for arms control measures if they are equitable, effectively verifiable, and enhance the national security of the United States and its allies.”[32] However, no option for arms control in space today meets any of these necessary standards, so the Administration’s support for PAROS is confusing.

Finally, with regard to the New START treaty with Russia, it appears that for the Obama Administration, simply signing it is more important than its content. Proponents claim it will reduce the number of operationally deployed strategic nuclear weapons in both countries, but in fact it will allow Russia to increase its numbers.[33] It will open the door for future restrictions on U.S. missile defenses, either as a result of Russia’s incorporating its complaints into other bilateral agreements (claiming the treaty is precedent) or because of the bilateral consultative commission that the treaty sets up imposing restrictions beyond its precise terms.

Again, this criticism of Obama’s approach to treaties is not meant to imply that all treaties are bad or even that international collaboration is by itself problematic. After all, Reagan signed treaties that were in America’s interest, and the Bush Administration’s Proliferation Security Initiative has become a prime example of how international action can be mobilized on behalf of real security. Rather, the criticisms suggest that when an Administration approaches treaties and international “cooperation” without due regard for protecting U.S. interests and establishing conditions for real security, as President Obama’s has done, they become rather useless exercises or, worse, harmful to American security and constitutional rights.

Soft-Pedaling American Power. President Obama intends to use soft-power tools like diplomacy and aid to engage other nations, soft-pedaling American “hard” power so as to appear more as an equal at the negotiating table. Consider these remarks:

On January 2009, shortly after taking office, he said that “[i]f countries like Iran are willing to unclench their fist, they will find an extended hand from us.”[34]
In September 2009 at the United Nations, he said: “[In] an era when our destiny is shared, power is no longer a zero-sum game. No one nation can or should try to dominate another nation. No world order that elevates one nation or group of people over another will succeed. No balance of power among nations will hold. The traditional divisions between nations of the South and the North make no sense in an interconnected world; nor do alignments of nations rooted in the cleavages of a long-gone Cold War.”[35]
His new National Security Strategy points to diplomacy and development aid as the preferred tools to “prevent conflict, spur economic growth, strengthen weak and failing states, lift people out of poverty, combat climate change and epidemic disease, and strengthen institutions of democratic governance.”[36] Countries, it states, then have a choice: Abide by “international norms, and achieve the political and economic benefits that come with greater integration with the international community; or refuse to accept this pathway, and bear the consequences of that decision, including greater isolation.”[37]

After a special U.N. session on nuclear proliferation in September 2009, French President Nicolas Sarkozy criticized Obama and the soft-power approach to Iran and North Korea:

We live in the real world, not in a virtual one…. President Obama himself has said that he dreams of a world without nuclear weapons. Before our very eyes, two countries are doing exactly the opposite at this very moment. Since 2005, Iran has violated five Security Council Resolutions…. I support America’s “extended hand.” But what have these proposals for dialogue produced for the international community? Nothing but more enriched uranium and more centrifuges. And last but not least, it has resulted in a statement by Iranian leaders calling for wiping off the map a Member of the United Nations.[38]

In recent months, the President’s soft-power approach has become more ambiguous, particularly toward Iran. After his full-throated engagement approach failed to produce results, he fell back on the harder sanctions strategy practiced by George W. Bush. Tougher sanctions from the U.N. Security Council, the United States, and the European Union have been adopted. Yet the President recently reached out to Iran again, saying the door was still open for peace so long as Iran agreed to dismantle its nuclear weapons program.

The Washington Post reported that this “renewed opening to Iran also included a proposal for talks on Afghanistan” because “the two sides have a ‘mutual interest’ in fighting the Taliban.”[39] But if there is mutual interest, it is illusive. The U.S. military has repeatedly issued findings that Iran is still giving the Taliban significant arms support.[40]

Obama’s schizophrenic attitude toward soft and hard power is less a conscious application of “good cop, bad cop” than an expression of uncertainty about the direction his policy should take. Since taking office, his Administration has backed off from some of Obama’s promises, such as closing the detention center at Guantanamo Bay and trying captured terrorists in civilian courts. It also has stepped up drone attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the President did eventually approve the surge in Afghanistan.

But those welcome policy changes more likely resulted from Obama’s military and intelligence leaders preventing him from adopting ineffective or even naïve policies than from a conscious shift in principle. At times, the President seems politically pained by his changes in his policies on Afghanistan and detainees. They were clearly unwelcome to his supporters in the left wing of his party, and splitting the difference among his advisers over an Afghan war strategy—agreeing to an unwise timetable, for example—is a manifestation of the ambivalence that pervades his thinking.

This embrace of soft power, caused in part by a desire to break with perceived excessive applications of hard power by Bush, is thus grounded not merely in tactics, but in a basic attitude about the nature of America’s role in the world and how that role should be played. The belief that the U.S. overutilized hard power in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan has shaken Obama’s confidence in the application of hard power at all. Thus, the expressions of soft power he chooses—diplomatic engagement, working with the U.N., dispensing foreign aid, and soft-pedaling differences with enemies— are grounded in the assumption that the limits of American military power are in fact also the limits of America’s ability to influence events on its own.

In light of recent history, this viewpoint may be understandable, but it is also unfortunately selective in its choice of examples. For example, Libya gave up its nuclear weapons program not because of our “engagement” or soft-power outreach, but because it was afraid it was next on President Bush’s target list after Iraq. The same is true for Iran’s early cooperation after 9/11 when it was helping us to confront al-Qaeda. After the Iranians realized they were not next, they stopped cooperating. Even Libya’s Qadhafi has become less cooperative in recent years.

Additionally, while it is true that the Iraq War created a public relations backlash in Europe and parts of the Middle East, it is not true the war has been (so far at least) a failure in terms of power relations. Saddam Hussein’s removal from power eliminated any possibility of a major threat from Iraq for the foreseeable future. And while Afghanistan is still an open question, only the anti-war left argues that the Taliban can be persuaded to lay down their arms with promises of aid and diplomatic approval.

Soft power works only as an adjunct to hard power. Any time an American leader believes it is a substitute for or somehow superior to hard power, he is bound to fail. Presidents like Wilson, Franklin Roosevelt, and even Obama may resort to military force when they feel they have no choice, but they do so often reluctantly.[41] In the case of Wilson and Obama particularly (Jimmy Carter was also well within this tradition), this reluctance is an expression not merely of caution, but of an ideological predisposition about the proper role of America in the world.

A More Humble America. This leads to the question of what Barack Obama means when he describes a more humble America. The Obama Doctrine seeks to raise America’s standing around the world and gain influence by acting less as a leader and more as an equal of many.

Besides his now-famous remark about America not being any more exceptional than Britain or Greece,[42] Obama undertook a campaign around the world to apologize for what he believed had been America’s arrogance. His “apology tour” began with a video speech to the “Muslim world,” saying that we “are not your enemy. We sometimes make mistakes. We have not been perfect,” and there’s no reason we can’t go back to “the respect and partnership that America had with the Muslim world as recently as 20 or 30 years ago.”[43] Then in Europe, at his first NATO summit in early 2009, he lamented America’s “arrogance,” its “failure to appreciate Europe’s leading role in the world,” and those “times where America has shown arrogance and been dismissive, even derisive.”[44]

Obama has been criticized for his policy of extending an open hand to enemies while rebuffing friends and close allies. Consider why:

He is the first President since 1991 not to welcome the Dalai Lama to the White House (reportedly because he did not want to offend China) when that dignitary made his first visit to Washington after Obama took office.[45]
He prominently posed in a now-famous handshake with Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chávez.
He did not meet with Prime Minister Gordon Brown when Brown first came to Washington; in fact, the White House refused five requests from the U.K. before the President granted a meeting and after turning down Brown’s request for help in the Falklands dispute[46] (and reversing years of U.S. policy by supporting Argentina in that dispute).
He canceled his trip to Asia twice for domestic political reasons.
To “reset” relations with Russia, he essentially allowed Russia a veto over our missile defense plans with the Czech Republic and Poland, making no effort to criticize Moscow’s growing assault on its citizens’ political and civil rights.
He further fed our allies’ concerns about his aims toward Russia when he failed to meet with the President of Georgia in Washington for his nuclear proliferation summit, and he did not even invite the President of Azerbaijan—a country important to his plans for Afghanistan and Iran—to that summit despite inviting all of its neighbors but Iran.[47]
To the people of “The Americas,” he wrote: “too often, the United States has not pursued and sustained engagement with our neighbors.” He said the U.S. had been “too easily distracted” by its other priorities in the world, but that his Administration would “renew and sustain a broader partnership…on behalf of our common prosperity and our common security.”[48]
And he chose to back Hugo Chávez’s ally in Honduras, who was seeking to extend his own presidency unconstitutionally, even as Chávez was mocking Obama for weakness and asking Russia for new weapons.

Actions speak loudly, but perhaps the words of the new National Security Strategy speak loudest about how the Obama Administration sees its diplomatic role in the world:

Finally, we will pursue engagement among peoples—not just governments—around the world. The United States Government will make a sustained effort to engage civil society and citizens and facilitate increased connections among the American people and peoples around the world.[49]

The problem with this approach is that the U.S. government has a responsibility to the people of America to act in its own and its allies’ best interests. Apologizing for things that happened in the past may gain popularity abroad, but so far, it has done little to change minds about our policies. If anything, it has portrayed a weaker United States not only to our allies, but to adversaries striving to gain any advantage over us.

The repercussions could be grave—and here, history also provides an example. Not long after President Jimmy Carter apologized for America’s supposedly excessive fear of Communism, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan and the hard-liners revolted in Iran, taking Americans hostage. Similarly, just two months after John F. Kennedy indicated to Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev that he was willing to compromise on nuclear testing, Khrushchev erected the Berlin Wall and restarted nuclear weapons testing. Kennedy believed that reaching out to the Soviet leader would make him more conciliatory; Khrushchev read that as weakness.

It is worth noting in this respect that the main reason why the Obama Administration has recently adopted a tougher line on Iran is that the previously conciliatory approach utterly failed. Many people predicted this would happen. President George W. Bush had in fact reached out to Iran numerous times, only to be rebuffed each time. So it is not as if there was not enough historical evidence to predict what would happen to Obama if policymakers in the Administration had been willing to acknowledge it.

The reason that earlier policy had failed is that it misunderstood the problem. Iran does not want nuclear weapons because the U.S. is arrogant, but rather because it wants to dominate the region and prevent any military intervention that could dislodge its leadership. So a “humbler” America is completely irrelevant to the problem: In fact, it is a naïve application of what hitherto had been a cynical political strategy to win the election against an unpopular President, George W. Bush. It would have been much better if the political cynicism practiced in politics at home had been applied internationally to Iran.

A More Restrained America. As mentioned in the discussion of soft power, Obama clearly is uncomfortable with America’s role as the world’s “dominant military superpower.” In his Nobel Prize acceptance speech, he chastised America for its military actions in the past:

America—in fact, no nation—can insist that others follow the rules of the road if we refuse to follow them ourselves. For when we don’t, our actions appear arbitrary and undercut the legitimacy of future interventions, no matter how justified. And this becomes particularly important when the purpose of military action extends beyond self-defense or the defense of one nation against an aggressor.[50]

Adopting the worldview of America’s critics abroad is telling. It may be what an ivory tower professor might assert, but it is not what Americans expect their President to say. Most American Presidents have believed it is always best to have more military power than they would actually use. This is fundamentally what deterrence is about. For a President to distrust that power, as America’s critics abroad appear to do, because it is different or “exceptional” suggests a willingness to tolerate a diminution of that power in order to strike some conciliatory posture abroad. Deterrence is no longer letting others know that you will strike at them hard if they attack you, but rather trying to disarm them by convincing them that you mean them no harm.

This attitude is probably not shared by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, but it does not really matter. Both he and the President are allowing U.S. military power to wane. Gates may be doing so because he believes the future will not necessarily contain warfare among large land armies (believing we will need to fight insurgencies instead), but the President appears to believe that there is positive value in pulling back on hard military power. He cut funding for the production of F-22 fighter jets and the continued development and testing of key missile defense programs. His defense procurement budget is anemic, and so far, he refuses to modernize our nuclear deterrent. Secretary Gates proposed stretching out the procurement of the new class of aircraft carrier and terminating the development of the next-generation Navy cruiser with missile defense capabilities.[51] As our colleague Baker Spring explains, a force structure as small as they are projecting “cannot sustain existing U.S. security commitments.”[52]

The repercussions of such misguided policy may not be known for years. Military power is not only about fighting and winning wars, but also about others’ perception of whether you have the means and the will to defeat their aggression. In this case, the perception of American weakness, both in terms of diplomacy and in terms of likely cutbacks in military programs, is starting to bear some disturbing fruit.

China has only become more bellicose in the wake of these developments, snubbing Secretary Gates’s request to visit Beijing for talks on military affairs.
Sensing that Russia’s influence, rather than America’s, is growing, Ukraine’s parliament adopted a law effectively preventing it from joining NATO—unthinkable a few years ago.
North Korea attacked a South Korean naval vessel with impunity and threatened nuclear war over the military exercises we planned with our ally.
Despite Obama’s late conversion to toughness, Iran appears to have taken Obama’s mark and decided to go for broke on nuclear weapons.

The “correlation of forces,” as the Soviets used to say, does not seem to favor America at this point, and it appears that the world is drawing this conclusion about Obama’s America: Far from the “kinder, gentler” nation that will elicit goodwill and cooperation, they see a weak and untrustworthy America that forces friends to pull back and enemies to forge ahead. A recent poll of the Arab world found that confidence in Obama’s foreign policies in the Middle East fell from 51 percent to 16 percent in just one year. It also found that a slight majority of the Arab public sees a nuclear-armed Iran as a better option for the Middle East. According to an expert at George Washington University, “Arabs have concluded that [Obama] can’t deliver on his promises at best, or that he’s just like Bush at worst.”[53]

A Better Foreign Policy Vision

The pillars of the Obama Doctrine will have both intended and unintended consequences: They will make America less exceptional and put us on the road to decline, and they will make us less secure as other countries feel emboldened to threaten us and hold our policies hostage. The alternative is not to become the world’s bully, but rather to reassert American leadership in defense of liberty around the world. This will require policies that:

Strengthen our security alliances, create new ones, and establish new coalitions and entities based on shared values. President Obama has talked about the significance of international partnerships, but partnerships will fall short of our expectations if the countries with which we align share neither our values nor our goals. The U.N. is a prime example. As one of 192 member states, our efforts there frequently are sidelined or voted down. For many other states, the U.N. is their only claim to relevance in the global arena and their only chance at influencing the decisions or restraining the actions of the United States.

In addition, many of the institutions created in the aftermath of World War II are outdated, unable to respond to today’s challenges. The U.S. is not required to run all of its initiatives to spur peace, security, and development through the U.N. or these other bodies. Instead, to spur economic development, respect for human rights, and security, the U.S. should take the lead in creating new institutions and arrangements that enhance strong bilateral cooperation among like-minded nations. Examples could include a Global Economic Freedom Forum that focuses on expanding free markets, a Liberty Forum for Human Rights that promotes individual freedoms and human rights, or a Global Freedom Coalition to promote security.[54]
Invest in peace through strength. Our ability to defend our nation and our allies, and to advance our interests, depends on our ability to maintain the strength, flexibility, and quality of our forces. Declining defense investments that take us to the margins of military superiority while countries like China and Russia invest heavily to modernize and grow their forces is risky business. A robust U.S. military is both the surest way to deter aggression and the backbone of effective diplomacy.

However, U.S. defense spending is projected to fall, relative to the economy, from today’s 4.9 percent to 3.6 percent by 2015.[55] According to White House spending projections, Obama plans to increase spending for the General Services Administration by 22 percent, the Treasury Department by 35 percent, and foreign aid by 18 percent over the next two years, but he will cut the defense budget by 5.5 percent.

In 2010, defense was targeted for about half of the $17 billion identified for spending cuts— with some 50 defense programs either cut back or eliminated, compromising our air, naval, and ballistic missile defense superiority.[56] Yet one of the most serious threats to fielding a robust military force tomorrow is Obama’s out-of-control domestic discretionary spending on top of the rapid growth of mandatory funding to run the nation’s entitlement programs.[57] Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently told a group at the Brookings Institution that the number one threat that keeps him up at night is the national debt, because it is on a trajectory to exceed America’s gross domestic product in 15 years.[58] In fact, according to the Office of Management and Budget, gross federal debt will exceed GDP in 2012.[59]
Place liberty first. Rather then apologizing for supposed American “wrongdoings” of the past, the President and his Administration should focus on defending and advancing liberty wherever it may be cultivated. As it was after World War II, promoting liberty should once again be the central organizing political principle of our alliances and the international institutions and treaties we join.[60]

Promoting liberty is more than spreading democracy; it involves creating strong institutions that enable and protect self-governance, the rule of law, civil and political rights, property rights, and economic opportunities. The people of the United States continue to demonstrate the fruits of such liberty, and we should never apologize for their generosity and endeavors that have saved millions of lives and rescued millions of people from the throes of tyranny.
Win in Afghanistan. The United States will sacrifice its credibility, undermine the confidence of the NATO alliance, and place vital U.S. national interests at risk if it accepts defeat in Afghanistan. The world will become a much more dangerous place. On the other hand, winning in Afghanistan will guard against the possibility of another 9/11 type of terrorist attack on the U.S. and create the necessary pressure on nuclear-armed Pakistan to deal with organized terrorist groups within its borders, partner to demobilize the Taliban, and recognize the importance of normalizing relations with India.

Winning will be a crushing blow to those who provide support for Islamist terrorism and a stern warning to all our enemies that the U.S. can and will defend its vital national interests. But winning will require renouncing a predetermined timeline and fully resourcing the U.S. military counterinsurgency strategy.
Take a tougher stand on North Korea. The U.S. must stand shoulder to shoulder in defense of its ally, South Korea. It must insist that all nations fully implement U.N. sanctions on North Korea to prevent Pyongyang from procuring and exporting missile- and WMD-related components and freeze the financial assets of any complicit North Korean or foreign person, company, bank, or government. The sanctions should be maintained until Pyongyang abandons the behavior that triggered punitive action.

The U.S. must press the U.N. Security Council to close the loopholes in Resolution 1874, such as adding measures to enable the military means to enforce the sanctions. It should target the other end of proliferation by imposing unilateral sanctions on a more extensive list of foreign entities engaged in the pipeline and call upon other nations to fulfill their obligations to enforce laws and U.N. resolutions. It should lead the global effort to enforce international law against illegal North Korean activities, including the counterfeiting of currency and pharmaceuticals, the production and distribution of narcotics, and money laundering.
Prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. An Iranian people free from the domination of a repressive, extremist government is the best way to turn back the ambitions of a regime intent on threatening the free world with nuclear weapons. The U.S. must insist that other concerned countries enforce the strongest possible targeted sanctions on the regime in Tehran and on its internal security organs; ban all foreign investment, loans and credits, subsidized trade, and refined petroleum exports to Iran; and deny visas to its officials. It should launch a targeted public diplomacy campaign to expose the regime’s human rights abuses and help facilitate communications among the dissidents. It should find ways to aid the opposition. It should strive to reduce Iranian meddling in Iraq by maintaining the strongest troop presence there; a stable and democratic Iraq will offer Shiites an alternative model that helps to delegitimize Iran’s Islamist system.

The U.S. should rapidly develop and deploy a new generation of nuclear weapons to convince Tehran that any attempt to use nuclear weapons will likely fail to achieve whatever political and military objectives it has in mind. And it should expand U.S. military capabilities to defend U.S. interests and allies, including deploying a robust and comprehensive missile defense system.
Undertake responsible arms control with a strategy to “protect and defend” the nation. Such a strategy would allow the U.S. and Russia to reduce their operationally deployed strategic nuclear warheads below the levels in the Moscow Treaty without constraining missile defenses. It would permit nuclear weapons to be configured and deployed to enhance those defenses without the threat of retaliation on population centers. It would seek mutual cooperation from Moscow in fielding effective missile defenses against strategic attacks. It would seek, as an offshoot of the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism, to negotiate bilateral treaties with Russia and others to counter nuclear-armed terrorism. Finally, it would seek to invite other countries to join with the U.S. and Russia in a global stability treaty that emphasizes strategic defenses, not offensive nuclear arms.
Establish the world’s freest economy. Economic strength is the cornerstone of national power. We must adopt an economic freedom agenda[61] for the United States that, if fully implemented, would help the U.S. to rejoin the ranks of the economically “free” on the Heritage Foundation/Wall Street Journal Index of Economic Freedom by improving its score from 78.0 to 89.8. Even better, for the first time ever, this would give the U.S. the top ranking among all the economies of the world—a worthy goal for “the land of the free” that is fully attainable by a committed and determined citizenry.

America Must Lead

A doctrine that posits that America must blend in better with the rest of the world will usher in America’s decline. American exceptionalism is not dead. Even more, it is not the root of all the world’s evils. It is the blessing of the liberty for which so many Americans fought, and each generation has a moral obligation to do what they can to spread that liberty and thereby ensure peace. It is simply not possible to remain free and prosperous at home if freedom and prosperity do not exist abroad. We cannot isolate ourselves from the world any more than we can become like all the rest without drastic repercussions for our nation and the world.

The Obama Doctrine, by seeking to remake America to please others, will fail because, in the end, no one will like the instability, vulnerability, and economic stagnation that follow from a weaker America.

America has seen dangerous times before—during the Revolution, the Civil War, and two world wars. Each time, America emerged stronger than before because most Americans decided they did not want to be defeated. They refused to give up.

America’s decline is not inevitable. It is a choice; it will happen when most Americans decide that what is unique about this country—the Constitution and our legacy of liberty—is no longer worth fighting for. The Tea Party movement indicates that many Americans still hold our founding principles dear, but they must remain vigilant and ready to defend our liberties from every internal and external threat.

America remains the indispensable nation, with many lives depending on its economic and political power. It is the guardian of freedoms and security at home and abroad precisely because it is exceptional.

What Ronald Reagan believed remains true: America must secure the peace with strength— strength of character, strength of will, moral strength from our values and our aspirations, economic strength born of opportunity, and military strength hewn from the ingenuity and ideals of a free people.

President Obama believes that his outward orientation will improve America’s standing in the world and thus its security, but America’s policies and interests can never mirror those of other countries. No other country has the caliber of military and economic resources to compare to ours, and no other country accepts the kind of responsibility we have for assuring the security of free people around the world. Our interests will always be at odds with those of other nations, no matter how much we try to conform to them.

The tenets of the Obama Doctrine described in this paper do not suit either this geopolitical reality or someone who believes in America’s obligation and ability to lead. Rather, they suit someone who believes he is managing America’s decline in a “post-American” world. They do not reflect history or the threats we face. They will serve to undermine America’s strengths and make it more difficult for friends and allies to figure out where we stand or how we might act in critical times. Ultimately, the Obama Doctrine will force friendly nations to look elsewhere, not to Washington, for arrangements that bring them greater security.

And that will make this a far more dangerous world indeed.

—Kim R. Holmes, Ph.D., is Vice President for Foreign and Defense Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation and Director of its Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies. James Jay Carafano, Ph.D., is Deputy Director of the Davis Institute and Director of its Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies. The authors thank Janice A. Smith, Special Assistant and Policy Coordinator for the Vice President of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, for her contributions to this paper.

Source: This article was published by The Heritage Foundation

[1]“Clinton’s Acceptance Speech at the Democratic National Convention, 29 August 1996: Foreign Policy Excerpts,” at http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/elect96/bc960829.htm (August 6, 2010).

[2]Real Clear Politics, “Obama’s Press Conference in Strasbourg,” April 4, 2009, at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/04/obamas_press_conference_in_str.html (July 30, 2010).

[3]“Text: Obama’s Speech in Cairo,” The New York Times, June 4, 2009, at http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/04/us/politics/04obama.text.html (July 30, 2010).

[4]For more on American exceptionalism, see Matthew Spalding, “What Makes American Exceptionalism?” a forthcoming Heritage Foundation Understanding America booklet.

[5]George Washington, “Farewell Address,” in U.S. Information Agency, Basic Readings in U.S. Democracy, at http://usinfo.state.gov/usa/infousa/facts/democrac/49.htm.

[6]Matthew Spalding, We Still Hold These Truths (Wilmington, Del.: ISI Books, 2009), pp. 177ff. See also Robert H. Ferrell, American Diplomacy: The Twentieth Century (New York: W. W. Norton and Company, 1988), p. 14.

[7]James Monroe, “State of the Union,” seventh annual message to Congress, December 2, 1823, at http://avalon.law.yale.edu/19th_century/monroe.asp.

[8]For more on the Monroe Doctrine, see Mark T. Gilderhus, “The Monroe Doctrine: Meanings and Implications,” Presidential Studies Quarterly, Vol. 36, No. 1 (March 2006), pp. 5–16.

[9]Quoted in Samuel Flagg Bemis, John Quincy Adams and the Foundations of American Foreign Policy (Santa Barbara, Cal.: Greenwood-Heinemann Publishing, 1981), p. 385.

[10]Harry S. Truman, “Special Message to the Congress on Greece and Turkey: The Truman Doctrine,” March 12 1947, at http://www.trumanlibrary.org/publicpapers/index.php?pid=2189&st=&st1.

[11]Elizabeth Edwards Spalding, The First Cold Warrior: Harry Truman, Containment, and the Remaking of Liberal Internationalism (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 2006), p. 223.

[12]See especially Lee Edwards, The Essential Ronald Reagan (Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 2005), pp. 110–115, and Charles Krauthammer, “Essay: The Reagan Doctrine,” Time, April 1, 1895.

[13]Chester Pach, “The Reagan Doctrine: Principle, Pragmatism, and Policy,” Presidential Studies Quarterly, Vol. 36, No. 1 (March 2006), p. 75. See also William G. Hyland, ed., The Reagan Foreign Policy (New York: New American Library, 1987).

[14]Mark R. Amstutz, International Ethics: Concepts, Theories, and Cases in Global Politics (Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 2008), p. 138.

[15]Spalding, We Still Hold These Truths, pp. 196–199, 212–213.

[16]Barack Obama, “Address to the Summit of the Americas,” Hyatt Regency, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago, April 17, 2009, at http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-by-the-President-at-the-Summit-of-the-Americas-Opening-Ceremony (June 2, 2009). Emphasis added.

[17]Available at http://www.cgdev.org/doc/blog/obama_strengthen_security.pdf (August 15, 2010).

[18]The White House, National Security Strategy, May 27, 2010. Emphasis added.

[19]CNN transcript, “President Obama Delivers Commencement Address at West Point,” aired May 22, 2010, at http://archives.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1005/22/se.01.html (July 10, 2010).

[20]Barack Obama, “Remarks by the President to the United Nations General Assembly,” September 23, 2009, at http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/remarks-by-the-president-to-the-united-nations-general-assembly (June 10, 2010).

[21]FoxNews.com, “Venezuela’s Chavez ‘Still’ Smells Sulfur After Obama Speech,” December 18, 2009, at http://www.foxnews.com/world/2009/12/18/venezuelas-chavez-smells-sulfur-obama-speech/ (July 30, 2010).

[22]Barack Obama, “Remarks by the President at the Acceptance of the Nobel Peace Prize,” December 10, 2009, at http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-acceptance-nobel-peace-prize (June 16, 2010).

[23]FoxNews.com, “Obama: America a Superpower ‘Whether We Like It or Not’,” April 15, 2010, at http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/04/15/obama-america-superpower-like/ (July 30, 2010).

[24]CBSNews.com, “Full Remarks: Obama at United Nations,” September 23, 2009, at http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-5331527-503544.html (July 30, 2010).

[25]U.S. Department of Defense, Nuclear Posture Review Report, April 2010, at http://www.defense.gov/npr/docs/2010%20nuclear%20posture%20review%20report.pdf (July 30, 2010).

[26]“Remarks by the President at the Acceptance of the Nobel Peace Prize.”

[27]“United States Unilateral Statement Following the Third Quadrennial Review of the ABM Treaty,” Geneva, Switzerland, August 31, 1988, at http://www.missilethreat.com/treaties/pageID.229/default.asp.

[28]“Top 10 Reasons Not to Trust Russia,” Heritage Foundation Fact Sheet No. 71, July 29, 2010, at http://www.heritage.org/Research/Factsheets/Top-10-Reasons-Not-to-Trust-Russia.

[29]Robert Wood, “Thirtieth Anniversary of the United Nations’ Adoption of CEDAW,” U.S. Department of State, December 18, 2009, at http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2009/dec/133893.htm (July 30, 2010).

[30]John Heilprin, “Obama Administration Seeks to Join U.N. Rights of the Child Convention,” HuffingtonPost.com, June 22, 2009, at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/23/obama-administration-seek_n_219511.html (July 30, 2010).

[31]The White House, “Statement by the Press Secretary on the U.S. Delegation to the Conference on Facilitating the Entry into Force of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty,” September 15, 2009, at http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/statement-press-secretary-us-delegation-conference-facilitating-entry-force-compreh (July 30, 2010).

[32]The White House, “National Space Policy of the United States of America,” June 28, 2010, p. 7, at http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/national_space_policy_6-28-10.pdf(August 10, 2010).

[33]New START Working Group, “An Independent Assessment of New START,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 2410, April 30, 2010, at http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2010/04/An-Independent-Assessment-of-New-START-Treaty.

[34]CBSNews.com, “Iran: Obama Must ‘Unclench’ America’s Fist,” January 28, 2009, at http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162-4759248-503543.html (July 30, 2010).

[35]Transcript, “Full Remarks: Obama at United Nations,” September 23, 2009, at http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-5331527-503544.html.

[36]The White House, National Security Strategy, p. 3.

[37] Ibid., p. 11.

[38]Editorial, “French Atomic Pique,” The Wall Street Journal, September 29, 2009, at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704471504574441402775482322.html (August 8, 2010).

[39]David Ignatius, “Obama to Iran: Let’s talk,” The Washington Post, August 6, 2010, at http://www.ohio.com/editorial/commentary/100098969.html (August 8, 2010).

[40]For example, see CBS Evening News, “Cooperation Rises Between Iran and Taliban,” October 7, 2009, at http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/10/07/eveningnews/main5370148.shtml (August 2, 2010).

[41]While it is true that Roosevelt came around to the need for war in Europe before others did, he also continued the isolationist policies of the past until he felt he had no choice but to jettison them. This fact is forgotten because of his reputation as a great war leader, which he became after he felt the war was forced on him.

[42]KT McFarland, “Mr. President, Is America Exceptional? You Betcha!” FoxNews.com, June 11, 2010, at http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2010/06/11/kt-mcfarland-obama-american-exceptionalism-military-navy-iwo-jima (June 17, 2010).

[43]“Obama’s Interview with Al Arabiya,” January 27, 2009, at http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2009/01/27/65096.html (June 2, 2009).

[44]The White House, “Speech at the Rhenus Sports Arena, Strasbourg, France,” April 3, 2009, and “Remarks by President Obama at Strasbourg Town Hall,” April 3, 2009, at http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-by-President-Obama-at-Strasbourg-Town-Hall/ (June 2, 2009).

[45]Alex Spillius, “Barack Obama Cancels Meeting with Dalai Lama ‘to Keep China Happy’,” Daily Telegraph (London), October 5, 2009, at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/barackobama/6262938/Barack-Obama-cancels-meeting-with-Dalai-Lama-to-keep-China-happy.html (July 30, 2010). Obama finally did meet with the Dalai Lama on his later trip to D.C. in February 2010 “despite Chinese objections.” See “Obama Meets with Dalai Lama Despite Chinese Objections,” CNNPolitics.com, February 19, 2010, at http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/02/18/obama.dalailama/index.html (July 30, 2010).

[46]A State Department official, responding to a reporter’s question about Brown’s March 2009 non-visit, said the visit was kept low-key because “[t]here’s nothing special about Britain. You’re just the same as the other 190 countries in the world.” See Tim Shipman, “Barack Obama “Too Tired” to Give Proper Welcome to Gordon Brown,” Daily Telegraph (London), March 7, 2009, at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/barackobama/4953523/Barack-Obama-too-tired-to-give-proper-welcome-to-Gordon-Brown.html.

[47]Jackson Diehl, “At Nuclear Summit, Obama Snubs an Ally,” The Washington Post, April 13, 2010, at http://voices.washingtonpost.com/postpartisan/2010/04/at_nuclear_summit_obama_snubs.html (August 8, 2010).

[48]Barack Obama, opinion editorial, “Choosing a Better Future in the Americas,” Miami Herald,April 16, 2009, at http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Op-ed-by-President-Barack-Obama-Choosing-a-Better-Future-in-the-Americas (June 2, 2009).

[49]The White House, National Security Strategy, p. 12.

[50]“Remarks by the President at the Acceptance of the Nobel Peace Prize.”

[51]Baker Spring, “The 2011 Defense Budget: Inadequate and Full of Inconsistencies,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 2375, February 22, 2010, at http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/bg2375.cfm.

[52] Ibid.

[53]Laura Rozen, “XREFPoll: Arab World Opinion of Obama Dims,” Politico.com, August 4, 2010, at http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/0810/Poll_Arab_world_opinion_of_Obama_dims.html (August 5, 2010).

[54]Kim R. Holmes, Liberty’s Best Hope: American Leadership for the 21st Century (Washington, D.C.: The Heritage Foundation, 2008), p. 187.

[55]Spring, “The 2011 Defense Budget: Inadequate and Full of Inconsistencies.”

[56]John T. Bennett, “DoD Examining F/A-18 Multiyear Plans; Gates Endorses KC-X Requirements,” Defense News, March 24, 2010, at http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4553123.

[57]Baker Spring, “The FY 2010 Defense Budget Request: Prelude to Another Procurement Holiday?” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 2286, June 19, 2009, pp. 2–3, at http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/bg2286.cfm (August 10, 2010).

[58]Strobe Talbott, Óbama’s America and the World,” RealClearPolitics.com, July 23, 2010, at http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2010/07/23/obamas_america_and_the_world_99084.html.

[59]See Office of Management and Budget, Historical Tables, Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2011, Table 7.1, “Federal Debt at the End of Year: 1940–2015,” at http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/budget/fy2011/assets/hist07z1.xls (September 1, 2010).

[59]Holmes, Liberty’s Best Hope, p. 186.

[60]Ambassador Terry Miller and Kim R. Holmes, “‘Mostly Free’”: The Startling Decline of America’s Economic Freedom and What to Do About It,” Heritage Foundation Special Report No. 82, July 14, 2010, p. 13, at http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2010/07/Mostly-Free-The-Startling-Decline-of-Americas-Economic-Freedom-and-What-to-Do-About-It.


Trump Chairs UNSC Session But Faces Opposition On Iran Issue

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US President Donald Trump presided over his first UN Security Council session but faced opposition from member states on his unilateral policy, particularly on Iran issue.

The UN Security Council meeting on the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction was held Wednesday, one day after trump attacked Iran at his General Assembly speech.

During the Wednesday session of the UNSC, Trump renewed old allegations against Iran and reiterated his harsh criticism of Iran.

“I ask all members of the Security Council to work with the United States to ensure the Iranian regime changes its behavior and never acquires a nuclear bomb,” he said.

“The Iranian regime exports violence, terror and turmoil,” he said, accusing Tehran of procuring materials to advance its ballistic missile programme.

“A regime with this track record must never be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon,” Trump said, as he justified his decision to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal, and to reimpose economic sanctions.

Trump also accused Iran and Russia of “enabling” “butchery” in Syria.

However he also thanked all three countries for pulling back from an offensive against militants in Idlib.

After Trump, French President Emanuel Macron said that a “serious crisis of confidence” has emerged after US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal.

In his message before the UN Security Council, Macron said that while the 2015 deal is “imperfect”, it ensures that Iran would not be able to obtain nuclear weapons.

He added that since the deal was signed, the “pathways of the signatories of the JCPOA have diverged…but we still, all of us here, retain the same objective of preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, and guaranteeing strict international control on the peaceful use of their nuclear programme”.

Bolivian leader Evo Morales launched a blistering critique of US policy toward Iran as well as Trump’s immigration policies that resulted in the separation of migrant children from their parents.

Bolivian President Evo Morales went further, linking Trump’s actions to a broader US history of intervention in countries such as Iran.

“In 1953, the United States financed, planned and implemented a coup d’etat against a democratically-elected government,” he said, referring to Iran. “After that, for many decades the United States supported an authoritarian government that allowed the profits from oil companies to line the pockets of transnational countries.”

“This situation endured until the revolution of 1979,” Morales added. “And now that Iran has retaken control of its own resources, it is once again the victim of a US siege.”

The session came a day after Trump anti-Iran remarks at General Assembly meeting. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani responded to Trump’s anti-Iran remarks, saying the US administration is violating the rules of international law by withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal that Iran reached with six world powers, including the US.

He also emphasized that the US is pushing other countries to violate the Iran deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and that it is threatening all countries and international organizations with punishment if they comply with Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the JCPOA.

Iran Has No Role In Arab World Other Than To Get Out: Saudi FM

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Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir on Thursday said his country and its allies are determined to push the “world’s chief sponsor of terrorism” out of the Arab world if it does not move out on its own.

“Iran has no role in the Arab world other than to get out,” Al-Jubeir said in a forum of the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, a think-tank, repeating previous statements by Saudi Arabia and its allies that Iran is trying to dominate the Mideast region.

He said Iran spent the last four decades trying to entrench itself in the Arab world through proxy militias such as the Hezbollah of Lebanon, but Saudi Arabia and its allies “will work on pushing them back and I have no doubt that in the end we will succeed.”

He pointed out that the Iranians “are losing in Yemen, their position is not what it was a few years ago in Iraq, and in Syria over the long run they will lose and in Lebanon Hezbollah will change.”

Al-Jubeir’s remarks comes a day after US President Donald Trump blasted Iran in his annual address to the UN General Assembly, accusing its leaders of corruption and spreading chaos throughout the Middle East and beyond.

Iran’s economy has been on a downward spiral after Trump got the US out of a 2015 deal in which Western nations would free frozen Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran’s freezing its nuclear weapons ambitions. Iran has been accused of exploiting the deal to develop missiles that it uses to threaten its neighbors.

Al-Jubeir said Iran is solely to blame for the morass that its economy is in. On Wednesday, the Iranian rial hit a record low against the US dollar on the unofficial market and the nation has seen growing protests amid a deterioration in the economic situation.

He said Iran’s model of “sectarianism and terrorism” is doomed to failure. “I hope that Iran can have a government that is responsible so that the Iranian people, who have a great history, can lead normal lives,” he said.

Qatar ‘dangerous behavior’

In the same forum, Al-Jubeir said Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies remain open to a dialogue with Qatar with a view to restoring relations, but Doha needs to change its “dangerous” behavior first.

“We have no hostility towards Qatar, but we vehemently oppose their behavior, which is very dangerous to us and our citizens and security,” he said. “The problem with the Qataris is that they are still in denial. We need to move them from denial to introspection so they can fix the problem.”

Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) cut ties with Qatar in June 2017, accusing their erstwhile ally of supporting terrorist and extremist groups — a charge Qatar rejects.

Specifically, the quartet accused the Qatar government and wealthy individuals and groups of sponsoring radicals, inciting people, and becoming a base for the Muslim Brotherhood since the mid-90s.

Kuwait had tried to mediate, and the Anti-Terror Quartet — or ATQ — as the four-nation group had become known, even slashed its original 13-point demand to only six, which included committing to six principles on combatting extremism and terrorism and negotiate a plan with specific measures to implement them.

Qatar rejected the demands, and opted to fight the sanctions imposed by the quartet by seeking help from Iran and Turkey.

“I hope the Qataris change, and if they don’t we are patient people, we will wait for 10, 15, 20, 50 years,” Al-Jubeir said during the forum.

“The Qataris use their media platforms to spread hate, send weapons to Al-Qaeda-affiliated militia in Libya. The Qatari Emir was conniving with Qaddafi on how to overthrow Saudi Arabia,” he said.

“People see a young country (Qatar), young leadership, they buy fancy buildings, they have a nice airline, and they think ‘wow, these guys are really modern,’ but we have to deal with the dark side,” he said.

Yemen’s Houthis losing control

Al-Jubeir also took the occasion to explain the Saudi-led Arab coalition’s campaign in Yemen in support of the UN-recognized government of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi against the Iran-backed Houthi militia.

“There was no way we were going to allow a radical militia allied with Iran and Hezbollah, in possession of ballistic missiles and an air force to take over a country that is strategically important to the world and that is our neighbor. So we responded to reverse the coup that the Houthis staged,” he said.

“The Houthis have every right to be part of the Yemeni political system, but have no right to dominate,” he added.

He lamented the lack of world outrage over the atrocities being committed by Houthis, including its use of children as soldiers, and starving villagers by laying siege to their towns in an effort to blame the Coalition, and firing missiles to populated areas in both Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

“The Houthis have lobbed 197 ballistic missiles at our cities, and they have fired more than 200 ballistic missiles at Yemeni cities, and I don’t see any outrage,” he said. “They randomly plant mines all over the country and people lose life and limb and nobody says anything and we get blamed for it.”

On the other hand, whenever the Coalition is believed to have makes a mistake in its operations, it has its own in-house body that investigates, and if non-combatants have been harmed, the probe body announces the result of the investigation and the Coalition pays compensation according to international humanitarian law.

While the Houthis are still fighting, he said they are losing and the area under their control is down to 20 percent.

Al-Jubeir said Saudi Arabia is hopeful that the Yemen conflict would finally be resolved politically, based on the GCC initiative, the outcome of the Yemeni dialogue and the UN security council resolution 2216.

Palestine

On the US decision to halt its contributions to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), Al-Jubeir said Saudi Arabia has added $50 million to its contribution to agency to reduce the gap from US cutbacks. Riyadh has also tripled its monthly support for the Palestinian Authority and have $150 million for the Islamic trust in Jerusalem.

“If we don’t support UNWRA, the misery in the camps goes up, the potential to recruit extremists goes up and violence goes up. I hope that the US finds a way to reverse that decision or find other means to support institutions that provide humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians in the refugee camps,” he said.

Founded in 1949, the UNRWA supports more than 5 million registered Palestinian refugees, providing them welfare and education.

Al-Jubeir further said the US decision to move its embassy to Jerusalem “was a mistake”.

“We believe it violates the principle of not taking unilateral actions that jeopardize the final status talks.” he said.

Ties with Iraq

In contrast with Iran and Qatar, Iraq had seen better ties with Saudi Arabia, with Al-Jubeir saying the relationship between the two countries in the last 18 months have “grown by leaps and bounds”.

“We are moving forward robustly in our relationship with Iraq,” he said, citing increased Saudi investments in Iraq, the opening up of the Iraq-Saudi the border crossing two decades after it was closed. “We are looking at more ways to improve the relationship with Iraq. We are committed to having the best of ties with Iraq.”

Saudi Arabia’s economy

On the domestic economy, Al-Jubeir Saudi Arabia is looking at a 2% growth this year and even better next year. “As the structural changes begin to kick in you would expect to see accelerated growth,” he told the forum.

He pointed to the measures taken to enhance investor confidence, including the upgrading of the Kingdom’s commercial laws and legal system to make it more transparent and efficient.

“We are trying to build a society that’s based on innovations, technology, renewable energy because we think that’s where our strength is,” he said.

Should UK And EU Be Considering A Five-Year Brexit Transition? – OpEd

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By Andrew Hammond*

The Labour Party’s autumn conference on Tuesday overwhelmingly passed a motion to keep the option of a second Brexit referendum on the table. The resolution, which might ultimately be a vote on the terms of any eventual exit deal, rather than whether Britain should remain in the EU per se, has nonetheless electrified the debate after Theresa May’s Salzburg debacle.

May was humiliated by fellow European leaders last week, when her “Chequers plan” for Brexit was roundly criticized at the informal EU summit in Austria. The diplomatic disaster has left May very vulnerable in Downing Street once again, and critics who favor different EU exit outcomes are growing in their defiance.

The current intense UK political uncertainty has brought new drama to the traditional political conference season. In Liverpool this week, Brexit has been a major topic of discussion at the opposition Labour Party’s event. This culminated with members supporting a resolution that stated: “If we cannot get a general election, Labour must support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote.”

This raises the political pressure, even higher, for May at the Conservative conference in Birmingham next week. There she will be under intense pressure from many critics — including former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson — who want her to ditch Chequers and move instead toward a turbo-charged version of the free trade deal Canada agreed with the EU.

The political mess that May finds herself in comes at a moment when — under current timelines — there is only about six months to deliver on a final exit framework. The limited window offered by the two-year Article 50 process is why May wants a transition period to try to agree a framework for the future UK-EU relationship.

Yet, before the parameters of a newly defined UK-EU relationship can be secured, there are huge issues not resolved in the divorce discussions. These include the future of the Irish border, which remains a vexed issue with no clear solution in sight.

Even with goodwill from both sides, it is therefore now uncertain whether as little as a fudged exit deal can be secured. Partly, this is because such an agreement would need ratification in the UK Parliament, which could be an insurmountable undertaking for May.

With fears growing in Brussels about the slow pace of exit negotiations, there is even growing speculation within the EU-27 about whether the UK’s formal leaving date may be postponed from March. If the two sides fail to reach an exit deal by the spring, many presume Britain would crash out of the Brussels-based club without any transition. But there are different scenarios here, including the possibility of extending Article 50 to allow more time for negotiations to take place.

There have also been media reports in recent weeks saying that May is set to ask the EU for an additional number of years of Brexit transition post-March. Under the deal provisionally agreed, the UK is already set for a 20-month transition period from March 2019 to December 2020, if London and Brussels resolve all divorce matters beforehand.

However, this less-than-two-year transition could — in practice — not be nearly long enough. Not just because of the need to prepare and implement new systems, including potentially for migration and customs, but also because any final, complex future UK-EU framework may not be ratified (and possibly not even be concluded) by all the European national parliaments and assemblies in that timeframe.

Some politicians, including in Ireland, have therefore proposed a five-year transition period from March 2019. Yet neither London nor Brussels are prepared to talk openly about this possibility; for now.

Part of the reason is that the EU-27 has yet to agree any budgets from 2021 onwards. This explains why the transition length proposed in negotiations by Brussels would be until the end of 2020. EU negotiators are well aware that any talks over a period lasting beyond this point would be shrouded in additional uncertainty.

The reluctance of Brussels to highlight this dovetails with May not wanting to raise a longer transition now either, as many Brexiteers are opposed to making significant, ongoing payments to the EU. And she is, anyway, simply too politically weak to face down the hardliners in her party on this issue.

Yet, kicking this transition length issue down the line could ultimately cause even bigger headaches, potentially even threatening any final Brexit settlement. This is because it may mean any transition that finishes at the end of 2020 would need to be extended, which could be politically toxic for London and Brussels alike.

The stakes at play in securing solutions are therefore big and growing for all parties. At this critical time for Europe, delivering a smooth Brexit increasingly needs high-level statesmanship and diplomatic ingenuity so all parties can move toward a new constructive partnership into the 2020s.

* Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics

Pope Francis Notes Progress On Combating Abuse – OpEd

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Going against the grain, and making the same point made by the Catholic League, Pope Francis cited the progress that the Catholic Church has witnessed in combating sexual abuse, referencing the Pennsylvania grand jury report as evidence.

While noting that “one single priest who abuses a child” is positively “monstrous,” the Holy Father said, “The Church takes an example from Pennsylvania, given the numbers that you see when the Church first became aware of this, and gave it our all in recent times.”

He was referring to the fact that almost all the cases alleged to have happened occurred decades ago, reaching back to World War II. “Then in recent times,” the pope said, “it diminished because the Church noticed that it had to fight in another way.”

“In olden times these things were covered up—but were covered up also in families, when an uncle abused his niece, or a father raped his child; it was covered up because it was a very great shame. That is how people thought in the last century.” He insisted that “An historic fact is interpreted with the hermeneutic of the time in which it took place, not by the hermeneutic of today.”

This last point made by Pope Francis is critically important and is not well appreciated. Indeed, just the opposite is happening: The Church’s most extreme critics—they are found on both the right and the left today—are looking through the narrow lens of 2018, judging, with characteristic arrogance, the content of the culture as it existed a half century ago.

The pope is right to say that when sexual abuse occurred in the last century, the shame of it impelled families to keep quiet, not exposing the abused or the abuser to public ventilation. In some instances even today, this is common practice. In Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods, accusers are expected to bring their claims before a rabbinical court, not the civil authorities.

Similarly, when bishops dealt with molesting priests in the last century, they relied on the advice of those in the behavioral sciences, following the advice of therapists who claimed to have “fixed” a molesting priest. That was the hermeneutic of the age.

We know now that the psychologists and psychiatrists badly oversold their expertise and failed to successfully treat these men. But when the abuse crisis was at its peak—the mid-1960s to the mid-1980s—”rehabilitate” and “renew” defined the zeitgeist of the time, especially in academic circles. Interestingly, the therapists are still given a pass by almost every critic of the Church, yet they played a key role in decisions that allowed the abusers to return to ministry.

The pope is to be commended for speaking the truth. Regrettably, he is not joined by as many as he should, in and out of the Catholic Church.

Ralph Nader: Gross Hospital Negligence Does Not Exempt Celebrities – OpEd

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Solid studies by physicians at leading medical schools have been warning of the huge casualty toll that flows from preventable problems in hospitals. A 2016 peer-reviewed study by physicians at the Johns Hopkins University of Medicine estimated that at least 5,000 people a week in the U.S. lose their lives due to such causes as hospital-induced infection, medical malpractice, inattentiveness, and other deficiencies. Media attention lasted one day.

What will it take to make the powers-that-be outside and inside the government reduce what medical analysts call the third leading cause of death in America? Let that statement sink in—preventable problems in hospitals are the third leading cause of death in America after heart disease and cancer!

Indignation and frustration over the massive avoidance of action to save American lives and reduce even more preventable injuries and sicknesses prompted the issuance of an eye-opening, factual report by the Center for Justice and Democracy (lodged at New York Law School) titled “Top 22 Celebrities Harmed by Medical Malpractice.” Surely in a celebrity culture, this documented report should have made headlines and prompted widespread commentary. Unfortunately, the report received little coverage from major news outlets.

Let’s see if you agree that this compilation, written by Emily Gottlieb and conceived by Joanne Doroshow, the Center’s Director, should have been newsworthy. Surveys cited in the Report show that “Four in 10 adults have experience with medical errors, either personally or in the care of someone close to them.” “Nearly three-quarters [73 percent] of patients say they are concerned about the potential for medical errors.”

Count tennis superstar, Serena Williams, was among them.  She had to save her own life overcoming inattentive medical personnel “that initially dismissed her legitimate concerns about lethal blood clots following the birth of her child.” That story made news. Other celebrities passed away without the public knowing the causes until lawsuits were filed and settlements were rendered. For the most part, the physicians have received reprimands, temporary suspensions, but rarely lost their license to practice.

Joan Rivers, the long-time comedian, entered an endoscopy center in July 2014 for a routine throat procedure in New York. Her vital signs started failing, but her caretakers were “so busy taking cell phone pictures of their famous patient that they missed the moment her vital signs plummeted,” according to her daughter Melissa who filed a successful lawsuit ending in a private settlement.

Celebrity doctors who “cater to ‘the demands of wealthy and/or famous drug-seekers’” are overprescribing pain killers and other drugs. Reckless practices “led to the premature deaths of legendary entertainers like Elvis Presley, Marilyn Monroe and Judy Garland, to name just three.” More recently, over-prescription of drugs has harmed or killed Michael Jackson , Prince, Anna Nicole Smith,  and 3 Doors Down guitarist Matt Roberts, to name a few. These were not one-time prescriptions but rather deadly ministrations over time by physicians who knew the conditions and vulnerabilities of their famous patients.

Other tragedies recounted in the Center’s report, based on lawsuit evidence and/or a medical board sanction, include singer Julie Andrews (destroyed her singing career); Marty Balin, Jefferson Airplane’s co-founder and lead-singer (destroyed his career); comedian Dana Carvey (led to “serious illness”); Maurice Gibb, the Bee Gees’ star (“died in a Florida hospital”); NASCAR champion, Pete Hamilton (survived “horrendous surgical errors causing… multiple complications”); and John Ritter, the Emmy award-winning actor, was “misdiagnosed and improperly treated at a hospital where he died.”

The great sports writer, Dick Schaap died after routine hip replacement surgery, when contemporary tests showed his weakened lungs indicated that the procedure would be too dangerous.

In 1987, the pioneering artist, director, and producer, Andy Warhol, underwent gallbladder surgery and died a day later when medical personnel put too much fluid intravenously into his body.

The Center’s report concludes by noting that “health care in the United States can be incredibly unsafe, and this is true even for well-known actors, singers, musicians, athletes and other personalities …wealth and fame cannot shield someone from being victimized by a preventable medical error.”

Safety and health reforms are long overdue in hospitals and clinics astonishingly. The American Medical Association has not produced any calls to action with effective recommendations. State regulators are heavily compromised by conflicts of interest and low budgets. The federal government is AWOL. A minimum of 5,000 lives lost a week, not counting the casualties in clinics and medical offices is a serious health crisis. This ongoing epidemic should lead to public alarms and reforms long known but kept on the shelf. Contact your members of Congress and demand public hearings. The evidence cannot be ignored any longer.

Robots, China And The Failure Of Economics Reporters – OpEd

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The failure of economics reporters in major news outlets to make simple logical connections is truly astounding. The Washington Post gave us another great example of this failure in a piece on robots replacing workers in a Chinese warehouse.

The gist of this story is that this warehouse, which only has four workers overseeing dozens of robots, could be the wave of the future. At one point the piece tells us that the consulting firm McKinsey projects that almost one-third of jobs could be replaced by automation by 2030.

While this is presented as something ominous, this replacement of workers by technology is known as “productivity growth.” The loss of one-third of all jobs in 12 years would translate into productivity growth of just over 3.0 percent annually. This is roughly the pace of productivity growth we saw in the long Golden Age from 1947 to 1973, a period of low unemployment and rapid wage growth.

Also, if the McKinsey projection on productivity growth proves correct, then the Trump administration’s growth target of 3.0 percent annually will be easily reached. (The Congressional Budget Office projects productivity growth around 1.7 percent annually.) GDP growth is the sum of productivity growth and labor force growth. With the latter likely to be in the range of 0.4 to 0.6 percent annually, GDP growth will be well in excess of 3.0 percent if the McKinsey projection on productivity growth proves correct.

It is absolutely astounding that the Post somehow does not connect predictions of rapid automation with projections of GDP growth. This is definitional, it is not something subject to debate. In its defense, the Post is hardly alone in this failure.

This piece also includes a bizarre discussion of China’s “labor shortage.”

“The country’s one-child policy, which was in place from 1979 to 2016, shaved down today’s number of young job seekers, giving workers more leverage to ask for higher pay and better benefits.

“Government officials have admitted the policy stifled population growth, making it tougher and more expensive for companies to fill vacancies.”

Why should China’s government have to “admit” that it pursued a policy that has helped to give workers more bargaining power so that they can share in the country’s economic gains? Many people might think this is the goal of economic policy.

This article originally appeared on Dean Baker’s Beat the Press blog.

South Africa: President Ramaphosa Says Seized Farmlands ‘To Be Shared By All’

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South African President Cyril Ramaphosa warned the UN General Assembly that his government is planning to implement controversial reforms to correct racially skewed land-ownership patterns.

According to the President, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) is currently holding consultations on the reform that had previously evoked widespread outrage across the international community.

“Nelson Mandela’s vision continues to guide us as we seek to improve the lives of our people in many ways,” Ramaphosa said. “We have started a comprehensive dialogue on the question of land reforms, as we seek ways to guarantee the land is shared by all.”

Earlier this year, the ANC proposed a constitutional amendment that would give the government a legal right to seize and redistribute farmlands without any compensation for owners. The draft reform triggered heated international debate along with multiple media reports of alleged violence against South African white farmers, including murders.

According to government data, more than 77 percent of South African farms and agricultural holdings are owned by white citizens with only four percent of lands belonging to black South Africans. The overall population of country is comprised by nine percent white people and 76 percent black people.

The reform has also raised deep concern among international investors, while the country’s ruling party has sought to reassure that the move will be lawful and will not threaten stability. Earlier this month, agricultural confidence and land prices in South Africa declined to the lowest in more than two years, according to the Agbiz/IDC agribusiness confidence index.

Speaking to the UN General Assembly, Ramaphosa announced plans to spend 50 billion rand ($3.52 billion) of “reprioritized expenditure and new project-level funding” to turn around South Africa’s economy.

The president also commented on Donald Trump’s America First policy, saying that no country can prosper at the expense of millions of others. “We must take collective responsibility for the development of all nations,” Ramaphosa added.


Latest US-Israel Attack On Palestinian Refugees Will Prove Futile – OpEd

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The US government’s decision to slash funds provided to the UN agency that cares for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, is part of a new American-Israeli strategy aimed at redefining the rules of the game altogether.

As a result, UNRWA is experiencing its worst financial crisis. The gap in its budget is estimated at about $217 million and is rapidly increasing. Aside from future catastrophic events that would result in discontinuing services and urgent humanitarian aid to the 5 million refugees registered with UNRWA, the impact of the callous US decision is already reverberating in many refugee camps across the region. UNRWA has downgraded many of its services, laying off many teachers and reducing staff and working hours at various clinics.

Nearly 40 percent of all Palestinian refugees live in Jordan, a country that is now also overwhelmed by a million Syrian refugees, who sought shelter there because of the grinding and deadly war in their own country. Aware of Jordan’s vulnerability, American emissaries attempted to barter with the country to heed the US demand of revoking the status of the 2 million Palestinian refugees there. Instead of funding UNRWA, Washington offered to redirect the money directly to the Jordanian government. Thus, the US hoped that Palestinian refugee status would no longer be applicable. Unsurprisingly, Jordan refused the American offer.

News of this failed barter surfaced last month. It was reported that US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Jared Kushner, tried to sway the Jordanian government during his visit to Amman in June.

Washington and Israel are seeking to simply remove the right of return for Palestinian refugees, as enshrined in international law, from the political agenda altogether. Coupled with Washington’s decision to “remove Jerusalem from the table,” the American strategy is neither random nor impulsive.

“It is important to have an honest and sincere effort to disrupt UNRWA,” Kushner wrote to the US Middle East envoy, Jason Greenblatt, in an email in January. This email, among others, was later leaked to Foreign Policy magazine. “This (agency) perpetuates a status quo,” he also wrote, referring to UNRWA as “corrupt, inefficient and doesn’t help peace.

This notion that UNRWA sustains the status quo — meaning the political rights of Palestinians refugees — is the main reason for the American war on the organization; a fact that is confirmed by statements made by top Israeli officials. Israel’s Ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, echoed the American sentiment. UNRWA “has proven itself an impediment to resolving the conflict by keeping the Palestinians in perpetual refugee status,” he said.

Certainly, the US cutting of funds to UNRWA coincides with the defunding of all programs that provide any kind of aid to the Palestinian people. But the targeting of UNRWA is mostly concerned with the status of Palestinian refugees — a status that has irked Tel Aviv for 70 years.

Why does Israel want to make Palestinian refugees status-less? The refugee status is already a precarious one. To be a Palestinian refugee means living perpetually in limbo — unable to reclaim what has been lost, and unable to fashion an alternative future and a life of freedom and dignity.

How are Palestinians to reconstruct their identity that has been shattered by decades of exile, when Israel has constantly hinged its own existence as a “Jewish state” on opposing the return and repatriation of Palestinian refugees? As per Israel’s logic, the mere Palestinian demand for the implementation of the internationally sanctioned right of return is equivalent to a call for Israel’s “destruction.” According to that same faulty logic, the fact that the Palestinian people live and multiply is a “demographic threat” to Israel.

Much can be said about the circumstances behind the creation of UNRWA by the UN General Assembly in December 1949 — its operations, efficiency and the effectiveness of its work. But, for most Palestinians, UNRWA is not a relief organization per se; being registered as a refugee with UNRWA provides Palestinians with a temporary identity, the same identity that allowed four generations of refugees to navigate decades of exile.

UNRWA’s stamp of “refugee” on every certificate that millions of Palestinians possess — birth, death and everything else in between — has served as a compass, pointing back to the places those refugees come from. Not the refugee camps scattered in Palestine and across the region, but the 600 towns and villages that were destroyed during the Zionist assault on Palestine.

These villages may have been erased, as a whole new country was established upon their ruins, but the Palestinian refugee remained — subsisting, resisting and plotting her return home. UNRWA refugee status is the international recognition of this inalienable right.

Therefore, the current US-Israeli war does not target UNRWA as a UN body, but as an organization that allows millions of Palestinians to maintain their identity as refugees with non-negotiable rights until their return to their ancestral homeland. Nearly 70 years after its founding, UNRWA remains essential and irreplaceable.

The founders of Israel envisioned a future where Palestinian refugees would eventually disappear into the larger population of the Middle East. Seventy years on, the Israelis still entertain that same illusion. Now, with the help of the Trump administration, they are orchestrating yet more sinister campaigns to make Palestinian refugees vanish, wished away through the destruction of UNRWA and the redefining of the refugee status of millions of Palestinians.

The fate of Palestinian refugees seems to be of no relevance to Trump, Kushner and other US officials. The Americans are hoping that their strategy will finally bring Palestinians to their knees so that they will ultimately submit to the Israeli government’s diktats.

The latest US-Israeli folly will prove futile. Successive US administrations have done everything in their power to support Israel and to punish the supposedly intransigent Palestinians. The right of return, however, remained the driving force behind Palestinian resistance, as the Gaza Great March of Return, ongoing since March, continues to demonstrate. The truth is that all the money in Washington’s coffers will not reverse what is now a deeply embedded belief in the hearts and minds of millions of refugees throughout Palestine, the Middle East and the world.

Armenia Says No American Biological Laboratories Located In Country

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There are no American or other foreign biological laboratories on the territory of Armenia, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Tigran Balayan told reporters on Wednesday, September 26.

His comments come amid media publications suggesting that Russian specialists were reportedly allowed to the American biological laboratories located in Armenia.

“These laboratories are entirely under the jurisdiction of Armenia, with only citizens of our country working there,” Balayan said, according to Panorama.am.

The spokesman also said that Russian specialists have visiting the laboratories since 2017.

“It’s natural, these visits go in line with the spirit of relations between Armenia and Russia,” he said.

US Slaps Sanctions On Wife Of Venezuelan’s Maduro

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The United States has imposed new sanctions on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s wife and several of his top allies to further increase pressure on the government which is already grappling with an economic crisis.

The sanctions on Tuesday targeted six officials in Maduro’s “inner circle,” including Vice President Delcy Rodriguez and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, and “blocked” a private jet worth $20 million that is reported to be owned by a front-man of a top official.

On the same day and at a speech to the United Nations General Assembly, US President Donald Trump called on UN members to support a “restoration of democracy” in Venezuela.

“Today, socialism has bankrupted the oil-rich nation and driven its people into abject poverty,” Trump said. “We ask the nations gathered here to join us in calling for the restoration of democracy in Venezuela.”

The Latin American country is under criticism for allegedly limiting the powers of the opposition-run legislature, jailing opposition politicians and creating a parallel congress with unlimited powers–accusations which Maduro vehemently denies.

Maduro, who says US-backed adversaries have launched an “economic war” on him, insists that opposition leaders conspired to assassinate him and sought to overthrow him through violent street demonstrations.

“I’m surrounded by sanctioned (officials),” he said on Tuesday. “Thank you, Donald Trump, for surrounding me with dignity.”

He nevertheless said he hoped to meet with Trump face to face. Last year, the White House responded to a similar request by saying such a meeting would take place if the country returned to democracy.

Last year, Washington imposed sanctions prohibiting trading new debt and equity issued by the Venezuelan government and its state oil company PDVSA. It has imposed several rounds of sanctions on government officials, including on Maduro.

Venezuela’s economy has collapsed under Maduro, with annual inflation running at 200,000 percent, and staple foods and basic medicine increasingly difficult to obtain. The situation has triggered a mass migration of Venezuelan nations to neighboring countries.

Original source

Bulgaria: Parliament Strengthens Powers Over Energy Deals

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By Martin Dimitrov

Following a row over the proposed sale of the energy company CEZ to a small family group, Bulgarian MPs have given the country’s energy and water regulatory commission the last say in such deals.

Bulgaria’s parliament on Wednesday amended energy legislation to give the country’s Energy and Water Regulatory Commission, KEVR, the final say on the sales of 20 or more per cent of any gas or electrical distribution company operating in the country.

The amendments were proposed by the United Patriots coalition, the junior partner of the ruling GERB party of PM Boyko Borissov. They were also backed by the opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party, BSP.

In February, the government was unable to stop an unpopular deal that would have transferred the majority stake of the largest energy distribution company in Bulgaria, CEZ, into the hands of the small family-owned company, Inercom Group.

The chair of parliament’s energy committee, GERB deputy Delyan Dobrev, told parliament on Wednesday that the changes did not give any new prerogatives to KEVR, but only clarified the commission’s role in approving energy deals.

In practice, until now, KEVR could only block a deal if it clearly prevented energy distribution companies from meeting the terms of their operating licences.

Now it will have the final say in any deal in which a substantial stake of an energy business is transferred.

CEZ spokesperson Alice Horakova called the decision is “disturbing”, accusing MPs of “seeking to influence the course of an already concluded transaction”.

On the specialized energy website 3e-news on Monday, she said CEZ had already filed an administrative claim against the Bulgarian competition commission, CPC, over its July decision to ban the sale of the company to the family-owned business of Ginka Varbakova.

The CPC claimed Varbakova would gain excessive power on the market if she was allowed to buy buy CEZ’s assets.

Horakova called the reasoning of the watchdog “inadequate”. Both CEZ and Inercom Group have appealed to the Supreme Administrative Court over the decision.

Varbakova announced on 21 September that her firm had sold its photovoltaic business in order to address the concerns of the competition authority, which has blocked the acquisition.

Horakova also told 3e-news that CEZ is analysing whether “these actions by the Bulgarian state… do not violate the principles of investment protection that can be enforced by arbitration.”

The company is considering filing a complaint with the European Commission, she added.

This would be the second arbitration case between CEZ and the Bulgarian state.

In 2016, after years of problematic relations with Bulgaria, CEZ Group filed a Request for Arbitration against the Bulgarian state with the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes, ICSID, citing “Bulgaria’s failure to observe the investment protection provisions of the Energy Charter Treaty”.

It acted thus after the Bulgarian authorities’ regulations of energy pricing turned out to not have not been “in line with the expectations at the time of the privatization process”, the company announced.

According to the Czech firm, this had caused a decline in its profits, or losses, and the low liquidity of its Bulgarian business.

Philippines, Australia Begin Joint Anti-Terror Naval Drills

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By Dennis Jay Santos

The Philippine and Australian navies have started 10 days of joint exercises in waters known as key sea corridors used by terror groups off the southern city of Zamboanga, officials said Wednesday, in a sign of tighter security relations amid a spate of recent bombings blamed on Islamic State-linked extremists.

Regional navy chief Rear Adm. Rene Medina told reporters the military drills with the Royal Australian Navy began Tuesday and would include patrols in the waters off Zamboanga and the island provinces of Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi.

The three islands are known to be hotbeds of the Abu Sayyaf, a small IS-linked group notorious for beheading some of its hostages.

“These continuous engagement with other regional navies are part of the anti-piracy and anti-terrorism campaign of the government, which helps curb the security threats that are affecting the islands of Mindanao,” Medina said.

“It is also a sign that both countries share a strong relationship in matters of security through this activity,” he said.

In July, military officials said the Abu Sayyaf exploded a bomb rigged to van at a military checkpoint on the southern Philippine island of Basilan, killing 11 people. Eighteen Abu Sayyaf members had been charged for the bombing, including Furuji Indama, the known leader of a faction operating on the island.

Military officials said Indama was the top lieutenant of Isnilon Hapilon, an Abu Sayyaf commander who later emerged as the local IS leader. Hapilon led a siege last year of the southern city of Marawi, where he was killed in October.

The Australian and United States governments had provided military assistance during the Marawi battle, deploying drones to help in data and intelligence gathering. Five months of vicious fighting killed 1,200 people, most of them militants, and increased concerns over regional security threats.

The Australian ship HMAS Launceston had arrived in Zamboanga for the joint drills, and would play a major role in the patrol exercises. It would be joined by the Philippine Navy’s BRP-General Mariano Alvarez in the exercise mission that would run until Oct. 4, officials said.

Medina said the drills would provide Philippine security forces with additional knowledge in “thwarting terror attacks, including abduction, in key areas of Mindanao.” It was not immediately clear how many service members would be involved in the exercises.

Capt. John Cowan, head of the Australian contingent, told reporters the battle against terrorism is “a common fight between the two countries, which shared regional maritime security concerns.”

The Abu Sayyaf, as well as local pirates, operate in waters of Zamboanga, Basilan and Sulu, where they are known to traditionally hide their captives taken during cross-border kidnapping raids, according to military officials.

The last incident was the abduction of German yachtsman Jurgen Kantner in November 2016. Kantner was beheaded months later by his captors, believed to be a faction of the Abu Sayyaf.

Two Canadian hostages had suffered the same fate the previous year after their families failed to give in to the kidnappers’ ransom demands.

Jeoffrey Maitem from Cotabato City contributed to this report.

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