By R.M.Panda

After losing the election by an overwhelming margin and after conceding defeat publicly, Yameen is now up to his old tricks to stay in power with the help of his former cronies in the Judiciary and the Security Forces. Unfortunately for him, the Election Commission has at last realised the fraud that is being perpetrated by Yameen in the run up to the elections and so far it has been unwilling to go along with him. The World should not anymore look at it as merely as an internal matter of a tyrant who has violated all norms of democracy in wielding power and putting every opponent either in jail or driven to exile.

President Abdulla Yameen has challenged the result at Supreme Court citing rigging and electoral fraud. His complaint is perhaps that the Election Commission did not act to his dictates in the last phase leading to the elections!

The Supreme Court instead of throwing out the case is said to have scheduled a hearing this Sunday at 1 PM local time. The Court has asked the Election Commission to submit its defence before 11 am on Saturday.

President Yameen’s legal team in moving the Supreme Court said that numerous complaints have been received from his supporters of misconduct in the elections and therefore he had decided to move for legal action on behalf of his supporters.

There is very little evidence to back the incumbent President’s claim of rigging and electoral fraud. Yameen has instigated his party supporters of PPM (Y) to launch nightly protests over a “doctored” call of the Election Commissioner with an unknown person. This has been touted as evidence of wrongdoing and undue influence.

Yameen who had effectively banned all street protests is now instigating his supporters to take to the streets. He is now screaming of theft, voting fraud and insinuating that the Election Commission had taken bribes. What was he doing when these acts were supposed to be happening and he was not aware even after the election results were announced! It should not be a surprise to anyone who knows Yameen’s antics, that he could still in the little time available, arrest all the members of the Elections Commission and rig the re- election! He has already transferred the Police Chief!

Denouncing the leaked audio by PPM as doctored, the EC chief Shareef says that the conversations were recorded without his knowledge. The recorded audio phone calls were edited, dubbed and recorded to bring out a certain meaning. The Election Commission has also threatened to seek defamation action against PPM for their slanderous allegations of fraud and vote rigging on EC.

The EC has also decided to take punitive action against PPM if it continues to misuse the freedom of assembly law by organising the protests outside the party headquarters in Male. A defamation complaint has already been filed with the Police by EC against the President’s spokes-person Ibrahim Mauz Ali who called the EC members as “thieves”

The five member of EC have declared that there were no complaints or irregularities that could affect the outcome of the election and they have continued to stand firm on their position. Voting and ballot counting took place in the presence of all representatives of the candidates and in front of local and international observers and monitored by them. A total 123 cases were filed with the Complaint Bureau and all these complaints have been attended to and none of them would have affected the outcome of the elections.

The Human Rights Commission of Maldives has praised the Election Commission and said that the Presidential election proceeded smoothly and peacefully. There were no incidents that infringed on anyone’s right in violation of laws or regulations that could affect the outcome of the election it said.

Seeing all this despicable tactics being used to annul the election and stay in power, the United States has criticized the attempts of Yameen to undermine the democracy. The US state department spokesperson said “The US is concerned of troubling actions by outgoing President Yameen that threaten to undermine the will of the Maldivian people, and will consider appropriate measures against anyone who undermines a peaceful transfer of power in Maldives.”

Alice Wells, a top US diplomat also warned the government officials in her visit to Maldives not to undermine the peoples verdict. Wells had met the President-elect Ibrahim Mohamed Solih and assured him that the US government is looking at what resources and tools can bring to bear to assist Maldives in its return to a democratic path and in ensuring greater security and prosperity in the Indian Ocean.

The Chinese Ambassador Zhang Lizhong during a courtesy call on President-elect Ibrahim Mohamed Solih extended his invitation to visit China once he is sworn in to office. The two discussed about the China’s assistance to Maldives. Beijing is looking forward to work with new government to ensure the continuity of their investments and also to maintain the good political relations between two countries.

Disregarding the President-elect Solih’s request to not to make any fresh appointments and not take any major decisions, the outgoing President Yameen has replaced the Ppolice chief of the country. This change comes just after the two days of the EC’s declaration of the election result confirming opposition candidate Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s victory with 58 percent of the vote. This indicated that Yameen even after conceding defeat is in no mood to handover baton to Solih.

The civil service commission had already appointed a transition chief to organise a smooth transfer of power. But it is yet to be seen how Yameen is going to cooperate with the transition chief.

As of now the Election Commission is working in the right direction to implement the people’s verdict without coming under any pressure and it is hoped that the Supreme Court for once will not again revert to obliging Yameen to perpetuate his tyranny.

Email: pandaradhamadhaba@gmail.com

By Dr Subhash Kapila

Pakistan in 2018 has ended up as a ‘Economically Failed State’ chiefly due to massive appropriations by Pakistan Army GHQ in Rawalpindi with no questions dare asked nor accountability called for by Pakistan’s elected/nominated Prime Ministers sitting in Islamabad. Pakistan’s gullible populace is sedated by Pakistan Army hierarchy that this is required to face Pakistan’s threats emanating from both flanks.

Afghanistan and India over the decades have not posed any military threat to Pakistan or threatened it as such. It is the Pakistan Army flush with ‘black money’ diverted from Pakistan’s national exchequer has financed and trained Islamic Jihadi terrorist monsters inflicting terror and suicide bombings in Afghanistan and India.

The Pakistan Army also in the absence of any credible military threats from India or Afghanistan maintains an oversized military machine and an expanding nuclear weapons arsenal. This has drained a limited economy of Pakistan of vast funds which could have been usefully used for stimulating Pakistan indigenous economic activity and for economic and social upliftment of the Pakistani population.

It is commonly said that the Pakistan Army and not the Prime Minister that controls Pakistan’s foreign policy but it would be equally true to assert that the Pakistan Amy has a stranglehold on Pakistan’s economy and has distorted Pakistan’s economic priorities and its international economic directions by selective selection of Pakistan’s economic partners who toe Pakistan Army’s agenda.

The prime example is China virtually colonising Pakistan like the East India Company not only economically but also militarily. This was analysed year or so back in a Paper so titled. People of Pakistan have not realised that China has made use of the Pakistan Army to virtually embrace Pakistan in a tight grip to ensure that Pakistan Army continues to further China’s strategic blueprint in the Indian Subcontinent and the Indian Ocean.

China’s flagship latest blueprint to engirdle Pakistan strategically and economically was furthered by the Pakistan Army. The Pakistan Army Chief on his recent visit to China and not the Prime Minister who has yet to visit China gave assurances in Beijing that Pakistan Army would ensure that the CPEC is completed.

Strong murmurs have started sprouting within Pakistan against Pakistan’s hidden clauses on the CPEC endorsed by the Government and Pakistan Army. It forced Pakistan’s new PM Imran Khan to assert that it would be reviewed. Pakistan Railways projects have already been dropped which were part of CPEC.

Pakistan with an already abysmal economy will be entrapped by China in an irretrievable ‘debt-trap’ from which Pakistan will never be able to extricate it. Sri Lanka is the prime example as to how that nation had to lease Hambantota Port to China for 99 years to get out of the Chinese debt trap. Would Pakistan end up the same way for an indefinite lease of Gwadur Port till such time Pakistan clears Chinese exorbitant principal debt and also the interest on loans.

In 2018, what Pakistani citizens must finally recognise that the Pakistan Army favoured external patrons like China and Saudi Arabia have but for a token financial aid to Pakistan have not ‘bailed out ‘Pakistan from its economic woes?

Effectively, China and Pakistan have thereby pushed Pakistan into formally approaching the International Monetary Fund for ‘bail-out loans’ totalling nearly 10-12 billion dollars. Pakistan’s new Government was reluctant to approach the IMF for three major reasons.

The first reason is that the Pakistan Army stands indicted by the US President Trump twice publicly this year as that Pakistan has not done enough to rein-in terrorist groups from Pakistani soil targeting Kabul and India. Pakistan Army bristles at such indictments as it wants the world to believe that what action it has taken against Pakistan Army targeted terrorism as Pakistan combating terror overall. The United States cut off US military aid to Pakistan because of the above reasons.

The second reason is that PM Imran Khan has at present no personal equations with US President Trump to count on to soften the edges of US strategic distrust and pursue US support for IMF loans. PM Imran Khan has also to live down his reputation of being termed in the past as ‘Taliban Khan’ and his anti-US rants while in the Opposition.

The third reason is that in 2018 the strategic utility to the United States of Pakistan stands that much devalued because of geopolitical reasons. Inia carries more weight today in Washington and unlike in the past when Pakistan Army was pandered both by US State Department and the Pentagon.

The United States is also enraged because the Pakistan Army has not prevailed over the Afghan Taliban to sit at the peace negotiating table with Kabul Government on future of Afghanistan stability. Can the United States ever see reason that it is not in Pakistan Army’s interests to have a stable Afghanistan, which implies that there should be a Pakistan Army-preferred Kabul Government?

Then of course Pakistan’s virtual sell out to China is a strategic irritant in United States eyes in terms of Indo Pacific security.

With the above backdrop the United States at the highest levels has publicly asserted that the US will not allow US-funded international financial institutions or US tax payers money be given to Pakistan to service Pakistan’s China-CPEC loans.

Also, as Pakistan now formally approaches the IMF for a bail-out package the IMF would insist that Pakistan lays on the table the complete details of Pakistan’s contracts and commitments made to China by Pakistan on the CPEC. Would Pakistan Army allow the Pakistan Finance Minister to provide such details?

Pakistan in 2018 is in economic distress because the internal stability within Pakistan and on its peripheries is disturbed and turbulent and that does not induce Foreign Direct Investments. Also loaded against external FDI coming to Pakistan is the fact that Pakistan does not provide a level playing field to foreign investors when it comes to competing with China in Pakistan.

In an age of global economic inter-dependence, the natural course of action was to plug into the vibrant Indian economy next door and add vibrancy to its economic activity. But sadly, the Pakistan Army has consistently opposed any Pakistan Government from extending MNF status to India. India is not the loser but Pakistan definitely is.

Similarly, Pakistan could generate sizeable transit revenue if it allows India land routes transit through Pakistan to Afghanistan and Central Asia. But here once again it is the Pakistan Army again that puts spokes in the wheel.

Concluding, it needs to be asserted that in 2018, it is the Pakistan Army which has mortgaged Pakistan’s economic future to China, foreclosed its economic options with India and with its ISI aid to Islamic Jihadi groups’ generated turbulence with its neighbours.

In the process, Pakistan is not considered as an attractive and safe destination to park external FDI. Pakistan Army has made Pakistan a safe destination for economic investments only for China. If Pakistan has to progress economically, which it can, and then it becomes imperative for all right-thinking Pakistanis to raise their voice against Pakistan Army’s dictates on selective choosing of Pakistan’s economic partners.

Besides virtual misappropriation of scant Pakistan’s economic resources, the Pakistan Army like the Chinese PLA has created a parallel economic empire through its Fauji Foundation running everything for logistics requirements of Pakistan Army. One wonders whether revenues so earned from such Pakistan Army monopolies are ploughed back to Pakistan’s economic coffers.

By Prof. Chalrles Ponnuthuurai Sarvan
I now very seldom go to the cinema but, encouraged by my wife’s willingness to accompany me, saw ‘Black Klansman’ directed by African-American Spike Lee (2018). In turn, this led me to Ron Stallworth’s memoir, Black Klansman. Reading is a horizon that forever recedes because one book leads to another, and that to yet another. So it is that I found myself reading a 1905 novel, The Clansman, by Thomas Frederick Dixon and watching D W Griffith’s 1915 film version of it, ‘The Birth of a Nation’. The attempt here is to draw attention to certain aspects of the KKK and the phenomenon of ‘race’ in general; to show that the past is not past but persists into, and affects, the present; and that, if not in detail, something of the essence of America’s KKK is found in other countries as well. Since both the novel and the film are fictional, I conclude with a note on the power of the imagination. My subject having been Literature, I refer to certain (literary) writers and texts.

As I have written elsewhere, African slavery, given (a) its appallingly cruel nature; (b) its duration of several hundred years, and (c) the victims numbering in the millions, is the worst blot on human History. The American Civil War ended in 1865 with the defeat of the South which had fought for the freedom to continue enslaving others. The KKK was formed the next year by former Confederate soldiers: an example of cause and effect. (During the Civil Rights movement led by Martin Luther King, the always smouldering KKK flared up again.) Grotesquely, one of the stated aims of the KKK was to protect the weak, the innocent and the defenceless. The name Ku Klux Klan is thought to be derived from a Greek word meaning circle. (For the addition of the Scottish word “Clan”, see below.) A circle excludes but more importantly, and as relevant to the KKK, it protects. Extreme right-wingers, both here and elsewhere in the world, Sri Lanka included, see themselves and theirs as a group in danger of subordination. Fear, whether imagined or real, can breed cruelty and the KKK went on to earn a reputation for extreme violence, becoming a sheer terror to non-whites, particularly to those of African descent. Often, their acts of violence ended with lynching.

Lynching in America was most frequent from 1890 to the 1920s, with a peak in 1892. As with anti-Tamil riots and the appallingly savage pogrom of 1983, these were not clandestine actions carried out furtively by a few. No, they were mob actions, attended by hundreds or thousands of men, women and children who cheered and encouraged. Victims were seized and subjected to every imaginable kind of physical torment. It ended with them being hung from a tree and set on fire. More often than not, victims would be dismembered; sometimes mob members took pieces of their flesh and bone as souvenirs. A song made famous by singers such as Billie Holiday and Nina Simone includes the following stanza:

“Southern trees bear a strange fruit
Blood on the leaves and blood at the root
Black bodies swinging in the southern breeze
Strange fruit hanging from the poplar trees.”

In many cases, lynch-mobs were aided and abetted by law enforcement personnel. Officers would leave the cells of black prisoners unlocked to enable the mob to drag them out for torture and grisly murder, thus obviating any trial: see Sri Lanka, ‘Black July’ 1983 and Welikkada Prison.

In 1955 when a fourteen-year old black youth was murdered and mutilated for allegedly whistling at a white woman, William Faulkner publicly asked whether such a country deserved to survive. See also Faulkner’s fictional works, such as ‘Dry September’ (1931) which includes a lynching. As Faulkner shows, even the ignorant and brutal can take pride, not through personal effort and individual achievement but simply through the accident of birth; in being a member of a group, be the group one based on skin-colour or, as in Sri Lanka, on ‘race’. To digress briefly: a June 1927 edition of the New York Times reports that among those arrested for KKK-related violence was Fred Trump, father of the current President of the USA. And there’s a picture on the Internet of Donald Trump, then a presidential candidate, kissing a cloaked KKK member.

The Clansman (1905) by Thomas Dixon is a crudely ‘racist’ novel, lacking any literary merit yet merits reading for what it unintentionally reveals: after all, it’s not only what we read but what we ourselves make of what we read. As it has been pointed out, we are not born as ‘racists’. (Though ‘race’ has no scientific foundation, ‘racists’ proudly exist and ‘racism’ in various forms continues to flourish. See: ‘The term “racism” and discourse’ in my Sri Lanka: Literary Essays & Sketches.) Flannery O’Connor’s collection of short stories, ‘A Good Man is Hard to Find’, includes ‘The Artificial Nigger’. The word “Artificial” indicates that “Niggers” are not a natural phenomenon but a cultural construct created by a denigrating ‘Other’. In a train, a man walks past and the grandfather of the story asks his ten-year old grandson what that was. Note: not “who” but “that”. The boy offers various classifications such as: a man, an old man, a fat man but all these adjectival modifiers are rejected. Grandfather then takes the boy’s education in hand and explains: “That was a nigger”. (The boy had never seen an African American because, as the grandfather proudly explains, they had all been chased out years earlier.) To the grandfather, what matters above all else is ‘racial’ identity, and not a common humanity. Ironically, the grandfather considers himself to be a religious and moral man: a point I come to further on.

A. Sivanandan (1923-2018) was director of the UK’s Institute of Race Relations for forty years; was editor of Race & Class but is perhaps best known to Sri Lankan readers as the author of that remarkable novel, When Memory Dies. He was married to a Sinhalese lady and spoke Sinhala fluently. During an interview in the UK (‘An Island Tragedy: Buddhist ethnic cleansing in Sri Lanka’, New Left Review, London, Nov-Dec 2009 issue, pages 79-98) Sivanandan relates that once at a social gathering in what was then ‘Ceylon’, he had asked his daughter, aged about five, who that “Uncle” was. She had replied: “That’s not an uncle, that’s a Tamil”. The child had internalised that the honorific “Uncle” is not extended to Tamils, not realizing that her own father was one. The inculcation of ‘racial’ thinking and feelings is more often not overt and deliberate as in ‘The Artificial Nigger’ but casual and indirect; unconscious, even unintended and unrealized.

To return to The Clansman, Thomas Dixon’s ‘racism’ was such that he seems to have had a physical revulsion towards African Americans. One example should suffice: “He had the short, heavy-set neck of the lower order of animals. His skin was coal black, his lips so thick they curled both ways up and down… His nose was flat, and its enormous nostrils seemed in perpetual dilation. The sinister bead eyes, with brown splotches in their whites, were set wide apart and gleamed ape-like under his scant brows. His enormous cheekbones and jaws seemed to protrude beyond the ears and almost hide them.” (Book 3, Chapter 3). Elsewhere we are told that one Southerner is worth more than all the “negroes” put together because the “heritage of centuries of heroic blood from the martyrs of old Scotland” flows in her or his veins (Book 2, Chapter 2). This sentence is significant for its use of the word “martyr” and for the claim that Southerners are descended from the Scots. Others groups too have claimed and clothed themselves in descent from some distant admired group, for example, the belief in an Aryan ancestry (though Aryan is a language-family, and not a ‘racial’ one). Such beliefs and claims would be laughable were they not so passionately believed, and help lead to tragic consequences for others.

Moving on to the silent film, ‘Birth of a Nation’, it must be admitted that in purely cinematographic terms some of the shots and scenes are very impressive. One recalls that Leni Riefenstahl produced brilliant films such as ‘Triumph of the Will’ and ‘Olympia’ but in the cause of supporting and serving Der Führer and Nazism. It has been observed that a film can teach the “truth” (sic) of history in one evening more than months of reading and study: Griffith claims that he produced his film in order “to tell the truth about the South”. The film was far more a popular success than the book which inspired it, helping to strengthen and prolong ‘racial’ hatred. Book and film were a success because, as with the Mahavamsa, they narrated what people wanted and wished to believe was the truth: few of us read books or see films which challenge or disturb our opinions and beliefs. (The film was more successful because, while reading is an activity, watching a film can be but “passive consumption”.) In the film version, the birth of the American nation is not dated from Washington and the defeat of the English but with the end of the American Civil War. Former enemies quickly became brothers and sisters at the expense of the African American who was once again “sold down the river”. Lincoln who had been demonized in the South as a black Republican (Republicans then formed a socially liberal party, while the Democrats were conservatives on social issues) was now turned into “the Great Heart”; the personification of kindness and compassion. (But something of the old hatred is seen in the assassination of Lincoln with his murderer, John Wilkes Booth, triumphantly shouting: Sic semper tyrannis.)

Paradoxical though it may seem, religion and violence often go together. Those capable of injustice, violence and cruelty (be they, in alphabetical order, Buddhists, Christians, Hindus, Jews or Muslims) transform these evils not only into the necessary and the noble but, most importantly, into the holy: holy, therefore, obligatory. The white cloaks of the hooded riders of the KKK displayed an embossed cross, and their terrifying visiting-card was a burning cross. The Christian cross came to signal not “Gentle Jesus” but hatred and violence, burning and death. ‘The Birth of a Nation’ ends with the Ku Klux Klan triumphant, a vision of Jesus and, in the background, the Promised Kingdom. Thomas Dixon, the author of the crude and cruel novel, The Clansman, was a Christian priest. In Sri Lanka, Buddhist monks have incited horrific violence against Tamils and Muslims, while Muslim clerics, including some living in the West, have been accused of preaching hatred and of recruiting men and women to carry out terrorist attacks. The Catholic Cardinal of Sri Lanka, Malcolm Ranjith, supports dubious political leaders, and stoutly opposes any independent investigation of alleged crimes against humanity. “His eminence has airbrushed Sri Lankan history of brutal racism against minorities, and the killing of thousands of innocent civilians” (message from Fr. Pan Jordan; cited with his consent). The Cardinal is first and foremost a Sinhalese; his God and Christianity; morality and justice come a very poor second. With the exception of a few like Pastor Dietrich Bonhoeffer (a genuine martyr, killed in a Nazi concentration a few months before World War 11 ended) many priests and nuns admired Hitler even to the point of adulation. This brings me to group identity.

Ethnicity is a far stronger emotion (and therefore force) than religion. Indeed, religion is made use of in ‘racial’ conflict to justify, if not to sanctify, violence. (The film, ‘The Trump Prophecy’ which premiered on 2 October 2018 in the USA portrays Donald Trump as God’s own “chosen one”.) Those of the far right are not restrained by the fact that African Americans are also Christian. In September 1963, the ostentatiously Christian KKK planted a bomb in an African American Christian church in Alabama. Dudley Randall in his poem, ‘Ballad of Birmingham’, imagines a distraught mother searching for her little daughter: “O, here’s the shoe my baby wore / But, baby, where are you?” In Sri Lanka, Sinhalese Christians have stood with Sinhalese Buddhists, and not with Christian Tamils, except on a private, personal basis. Regarding the last, Professor Sarah Churchwell comments (New Statesman, 21 – 27 August 2015, pp. 34 – 37) that “benign” private actions of a few individuals redeem “collectively” neither a people nor History: they redeem the individual, and not the group. See also, ‘Racism and exceptionalism’ in Sarvan, Public Writings on Sri Lanka, Volume 2. During the American Civil War, with many able-bodied men being away at the battle front, African Americans protected white women and children. The “good Negro” was one who was willing to die for master and family, and many indeed put themselves in danger, exciting the opprobrium of their own. However, they were seen as exceptional and not as typical It’s a “no win” situation, and one reason why it’s hard to extirpate ‘racism’. The booklet which accompanies the DVD of ‘The Birth of a Nation’ contains an article by Francis Hackett which reports that medical doctors apparently can perform an operation on a dog so that it starts and keeps on running. Nothing can stop it. The ‘racist’, the article says, is rather like that dog: very difficult to cure.

If ethnicity is more potent than religious affiliation, it is also much stronger than class feeling and solidarity. This is evident from the fact that some from the upper and middle classes (even professionals and academics, Sri Lanka not excepted) are ‘racists’. It explains why Left movements in Sri Lanka struggle unavailingly against the ‘racist’ Right. (On the other hand, the KKK was supported by the ‘aristocrats’ of the South who felt their position and prestige were being threatened. Not all Donald Trump’s supporters are poor and excluded; on the contrary, many are rich and privileged.) As with religion and class, ‘racism’ is also stronger than gender: women cheered on the KKK as it attacked African women. Today, Donald Trump who has been accused of sexual molestation; Trump who is on film admitting that he brazenly and crudely reached out for the private parts of women, has many women who wholeheartedly support him with the slogan: “Women for Trump”. These women even join him in rejecting and ridiculing women who make allegations of sexual violence. The basis of life is material: food and water, shelter and clothing. (A labourer once taught me: “Yes, work is hard but no work is much harder”.)

But ‘racial’, tribal or group feeling can be stronger than the desire for economic welfare and progress, and there are many examples from history where a people, fully aware of the material consequence, have voluntarily incurred economic damage driven by group impulses. In short, group identity and feelings are stronger than religion and morality; stronger than class and sex, sometimes overriding (group) material self-interest. This fact should not lead to a mood of pessimistic acceptance but rather to a spirit of challenge. After all, one feature of culture is the combating of our ‘natural’ and negative impulses.

A people unhappy with their present can either work intelligently and hard for a better future or, much easier, look back nostalgically to a past that never existed in reality: see Dixon in the next paragraph. Thus some Sri Lankans believe that in ancient times, say under King Duttugemunu, the island was what is now claimed in tourist advertisements: “the Paradise Isle”. Given human nature, there never was a paradise on Planet Earth, nor can one be unless we, human beings, undergo a radical moral and ethical transformation. I cite from the film, ‘Gone with the Wind’: There was a land of Cavaliers and cotton fields. Here in this pretty world, gallantry took its last bow. Here was the last ever to be seen of knights and ladies fair, of master and slave. Look for it only in books, for it is no more than a dream remembered. Mark Twain in his Life on the Mississippi (1883) lays much of the blame for this romantic falsification on Walter Scott’s novel, Ivanhoe (1820). Mark Twain alleges that Scott checked and even turned back the “wave of progress”. He made people fall in love with dreams and phantoms, “with decayed and swinish forms of religion” and with “sham chivalries”.

Dixon from an early age had been taught to regard his people as the chosen people of God. The Jews claim to be Jehovah’s “Chosen People”: some are chosen, and the others excluded. Sinhalese Buddhists believe that from all the countries in the wide world the Buddha, for reasons known only to him, chose the Sinhalese ‘race’, and the Island as the place where his doctrine would be preserved in its purest form. To what extent this “purity” has been actually achieved, I do not presume to judge but, as Mahatma Gandhi said, the highest expression of religion lies in the practising of morality: the Buddha, the “Soul of the Greatest Compassion”, surely would have agreed with the “great soul”, the Mahatma. John Calvin, 1509-1564, preached that some (again for mysterious reasons) were predestined by God for salvation.

The early Dutch settlers in South Africa looked upon Africans as the descendants of Ham who were cursed by Noah to be slaves: a belief, and consequent attitude and treatment found in the slave-owning American South. White-skin signified purity and, therefore, superiority; brown and black complexions signalled degeneracy and inferiority. Those Sinhalese who believe in, and are proud of, an Aryan ancestry will be disappointed that for their “Aryan” brothers and sisters of the KKK, and for other similar extreme right-wing groups, “Aryan” means white. Of course, as it’s observed in the novel, A Passage to India, literally there are no “white” people, but the term offers a contrast with “black” (and black includes brown). It’s a dichotomy: white and non-white.

Though proud of the past, what Dixon saw of his “chosen” people was military defeat and economic decline. On the other hand, when Booker T. Washington was in President Roosevelt’s office (1901), a waiter brought in a luncheon tray and Roosevelt invited his guest to share it with him. This caused outrage and the incident was exaggerated into a party where “Negroes” and whites danced together. The anger and alarm was that African Americans were on the verge of taking power, and Dixon (like Anagarika Dharmapala, 1864-1933), made it his mission to “save” his people. (Today, Donald Trump’s rallying cry is: “Make America great again”.) The African Americans were small in number and far from powerful but were projected as a grave threat. The whites were, and in some cases are, a majority with the cruelty that insecurity and fear breed. The whites were “a majority with a minority complex”.

Grotesque exaggeration and distortion lead both The Clansman and ‘The Birth of a Nation’ to present fiction as reality: the blacks, fully armed, are in power; they run the legislature and dominate the judiciary. Debauched and lawless, they push whites off the streets, and white women are in danger of a fate “worse than death”. It’s a nightmarish scenario, calculated to stir white insecurity, anger and action. I digress to point out that the determination of Donald Trump and his followers to reverse every single measure brought in by Obama; in other words to wipe him out of History is because Obama is black. As elsewhere, this kind of group-hatred is visceral. (With his usual elegance of expression, Trump referred to African nations as “shithole” countries.) The Unite the Right ‘racist’ rally at Charlottesville, 11-12 August 2017, included KKK, Nazi and other so-called “hate groups”, that is, groups whose main driving force is hatred, a hatred that expresses itself in violence, usually on those much weaker.

Returning to The Clansman and ‘The Birth of a Nation’, the impact of books, poems, plays, films and songs (see the words of ‘Dixie’, the unofficial anthem of the South) is not to be underestimated because they can take hold of the imagination so much so that the imagined can become more real than reality: Sri Lankans know the powerful and pervasive, the pernicious and persistent influence of the Mahavamsa. I cite one example to show how the imagination can take over. The novels of Charles Dickens were first published in instalments, and when he was writing The Old Curiosity Shop readers pleaded with him to save Little Nell; not to let her die. Dickens himself wrote to a friend: “All night I have been pursued by the child; and this morning I am unrefreshed and miserable”. In the midst of this, the three-year old daughter of his close friend, Macready, suddenly died. Unable to separate himself emotionally from his imaginary Little Nell, Dickens contented himself with sending Macready an affectionate note of sympathy, while other friends visited the bereaved, shared Macready’s grief and attended the funeral. Imaginary Little Nell was more real to Dickens than the child he had known personally. Imaginative identification helps to explain why people are distressed by the sorrow of strangers (royalty, well-known entertainers, sportsmen etc.) and not by those who suffer in real life – of which there are many. The impact of The Clansman and ‘The Birth of a Nation’, both fictional creations, on white Americans, particularly in the South was wide and deeper than consciously realized. It is one way in which ‘racist’ poison is concocted and the infection spread in the social fabric. These two imaginative works greatly strengthened and helped prolong the ‘racist’ Ku Klux Klan.

“O, let my land be a land where… Equality is in the air we breathe” ( Langston Hughes. African American.)

“Where the mind is without fear… Where the clear stream of reason has not lost its way” (Rabindranath Tagore)

The faults and failure in the above are because I failed to heed all the strictures of my wife.

By Sudha Ramachandran

In 2013, Kalpana Saroj, Chairperson of the Mumbai-based Kamani Tubes Ltd. (KTL), was awarded the Padma Shri, India’s fourth highest honour for civilians, for her achievements in the fields of Trade and Industry.

Saroj was successful in turning around the fortunes of KTL, a manufacturing company producing quality copper and copper alloy pipes and tubes. She succeeded where others, including well-networked, male corporate honchos, failed.

What makes her accomplishments all the more impressive is the fact that she is a Dalit (formerly ‘Untouchables’, the lowest caste in India’s millennia-old caste hierarchy) and a woman too. “Her rise to the top is, without a doubt, a function of her personal fortitude and grit,” Christina Thomas Dhanaraj, consultant for #dalitwomenfight, told IDN.

Set up by Ramjibhai Kamani in 1959-60, KTL was initially a profitable enterprise. Then, as bitter feuds erupted among members of the Kamani family, its fortunes plummeted. It was shut down repeatedly and with financial losses mounting, it was declared a ‘sick unit’. In 1989, the running of the company was handed over to a co-operative of KTL’s workers but that too failed to put the unit back on track.

It was in 2001 that KTL’s workers approached Saroj to revive the debt-ridden company and save their jobs. At that point, KTL was sinking under the weight of loans worth Rs 116 crore (1.16 billion) – or USD 1,566 million and 140 cases of litigation. Many advised Saroj against buying the company. She knew nothing about manufacturing copper products, they warned. The company’s liabilities were too huge. It would destroy her.

However, Saroj took up the challenge and within a few years not only did she put KTL back on the rails and turn it into a profitable enterprise – today the company has an annual turnover of Rs 100 crore (one billion) – or USD 135.71 million and the capacity to produce 7,000-10,000 metric tons of alloy – but also, she paid back the company’s loans. Importantly, she saved 566 families from destitution. She cleared all the dues that the company owed the workers in unpaid salaries stretching over several years.

Saroj’s rise in the world of business over the past decade has been spectacular. The annual turnover of her businesses, which extend across non-ferrous manufacturing, sugar production and building construction, is estimated at over Rs 2,000 crore (20 billion) – or USD 271.42 billion. She is a Board member of the Bharatiya Mahila Bank, a state-run women-only bank, and of the Dalit Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DICCI).

But more than her accomplishments in the world of business it is Saroj’s remarkable overcoming of social obstacles that deserves applause. Saroj is a Dalit woman.

Dalits have suffered persecution for several millennia. They have been excluded from education, employment, temples and public spaces. They are forced to do ‘unclean’ jobs like cleaning toilets, skinning cows, etc.

Independent India banned the practice of Untouchability, i.e. the social, physical and political exclusion of Dalits. Legislation to prevent violence against Dalits was enacted and seats for Dalits in schools, public sector jobs and legislatures have been reserved.

Still, on every socio-economic indicator Dalits are at the bottom of the heap. They account for the bulk of India’s poor, the illiterate, malnutritioned and unemployed.

Dalit women like Saroj are worse off, as they are doubly marginalized, suffering on account of being Dalit and women.

This is particularly so in India’s corporate world. Dalits are a minority here and Dalit women a rarity and at the upper echelons, almost non-existent.

“Even if we do manage to get in, the corporate is not designed to be conducive for Dalits to feel safe, confident, or valued,” says Dhanaraj. This is “a system that hinges on networking, social capital and ‘culture fit’ – things that Dalits miss out on given how casteist most Indians still are in creating/sustaining relationships with people they consider ‘inferior’,” she says.

According to Dhanaraj, “attaining leadership positions is even more difficult regardless of how hard/smart they work. For Dalit women, these challenges are amplified since they battle both patriarchy and caste within the workplace. In addition to resisting stereotypes, they also find it difficult to find mentors and sponsors.”

Born into a poor Dalit family in Roparkheda village in the western Indian state of Maharashtra, Saroj’s struggles began early in life. There was no rejoicing at her birth; her uncle called her a zehar ki pudiya (little pocket of poison). In India, girls are looked upon as burdens on the family.

She had to fight poverty, deeply-entrenched patriarchy in Indian society as well as social persecution as a Dalit.

Poverty forced Saroj’s parents to get her married when she was just 12 years old. In her new home in a Mumbai slum Saroj was ill-treated by her in-laws. It was “personal hell,” she recalls. When her father saw her situation, he took her back to his village.

Life is not easy for an Indian woman, especially a little girl, who dares to walk out on her husband. Saroj was ridiculed in her village and as life became unbearable, she attempted suicide. But fate intervened and she survived.

Her survival proved to be a turning point.  Before the suicide, there was “nothing but darkness in life”, Saroj recalls, adding that she used to be “very emotional and easily hurt”. When she got out of the hospital she realized that that struggle was a part of her life and it was her “job to face” struggle.

The next phase of Saroj’s life was difficult too but unlike in the past, she felt no fear in facing challenges.

Saroj returned to Mumbai in search of a job and began working as a helper in a textile mill. She moved on to working at a tailoring shop and then set up her own tailoring unit followed by a furniture store. Sugar factories, real estate and films followed. In 1978, she started Sushikshit Berozgar Yuvak Sanghatana, an organization to help unemployed youth find jobs.

Saroj’s determination and hard work helped her rise to the top and while her successes were achieved on her own steam, she has ensured that others benefit too. Most importantly, her achievements are inspiring millions of Dalits and women in India.

By Susan Misicka

A Vietnamese woman had to share intimate relationship information to get a short-term Swiss visa. The case highlights the potential for discrimination when visa applications are processed.

The woman, whose case was described in the Swiss newspaper NZZ am Sonntag, was applying for a 30-day tourist visa to visit her boyfriend in Switzerland. She got the visa, but only after letting a clerk in Hanoi read her digital love letters – a stream of smartphone chat messages, including kissing emojis, that she and her partner had been sending to each other.

“It is an exceptional case. The error was corrected immediately,” George Farago, spokesman for the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA), told swissinfo.ch.

The application had been handled by an external provider tasked with processing visa requests for Switzerland. Globally there are about 60 such external offices that have been engaged to reduce the visa-related workload of the Swiss embassies and consulates. However, the Swiss authorities keep watch to ensure quality and fairness of service.

“Regular inspections, announced or not, are carried out by the competent consulates. In addition, we send mystery clients,” explained Farago, adding that the FDFA’s internal audit department also conducts on-site evaluations. “Failure to comply with the contract may result in a penalty being imposed or the contract being suspended or terminated,” Farago said.

In the cases where the Swiss authorities need to know more about a potential visitor to Switzerland, they handle it themselves.

“Additional information may be requested for both entry and visa procedures. Whether and what additional information is required is determined by the responsible consulate – and under no circumstances by the outsourced companies,” Farago said.

Getting into Switzerland

Depending on the type of visit and the bilateral agreements that exist between Switzerland and the applicant’s country of origin, there are sundry supporting documents that must be submitted when applying for a visa.

Vietnamese citizens who’d like a short-term (under 90 days) visa need to provide proof of financial means in the form of original bank statements, payslips and an employment contract. If sponsored and/or hosted in a private home, the applicant needs to fill out a form and provide and original letter of invitation from the host, along with a copy of the host’s passport or residence permit, and perhaps the host’s financial details for the past three months. The visitor also needs to be in possession of a ticket home as well as travel medical insurance with a minimum coverage level of €30,000 (CHF34,300).

As another example, Afghani citizens need to provide translations of their national ID cards, evidence of family background in the form of a marriage certificate and children’s ID cards, proof of sufficient means to cover the cost of the stay (bank statements for the previous six months), plus “proof of income and socio-professional standing (e.g. letter from the employer stating professional position, monthly salary and holiday granted, documents confirming real estate ownership, company registration, retirement benefits). If visiting family or friends, they need to show proof of accommodation – such as an official housing certificate, as well as “information on the private affairs of those visited, such as identity card, certificate of employment, certificate of house ownership”.

The requirements for entry into Switzerland are explained in more detail on the website of the State Secretariat for Migration.

By JD Flynn

Recent changes to canon law have left some bishops attending the 2018 Synod of Bishops uncertain about the meeting’s procedural rules. Unanswered questions about the synod’s norms could have significant effect on how the meeting’s final documents are regarded in the Church, and by the synod fathers themselves.

The synod’s undersecretary, Bishop Fabio Fabene, told reporters in early October that because of changes Pope Francis made to synod policies Sept. 15, the Vatican had not yet decided on the exact rules for this month’s synod.

Asked whether synod participants would be able to vote on individual provisions of the document as they have in prior meetings, Fabene said it would depend on what emerged from the synod, adding that “as we move along, we will decide.”

But two weeks into the gathering, decisions about the synod’s procedural and voting rules have not yet been announced. Several synod fathers have told CNA they are confused about the rules, or uncertain about how the synod’s voting process will actually work.

In the absence of clear norms, some observers have begun to ask whether the 2018 synod will prove to be an authentic consultation of the world’s bishops, or an exercise only in the appearance of “synodality.”

Synods are meetings of bishops gathered to discuss a topic of theological or pastoral significance, in order to prepare a document of advice or counsel to the pope. The discussion at a synod is framed around an instrumentum laboris– a working document- developed before the meeting by a small working committee of Vatican officials and diocesan bishops.

During a synod, bishops make comments and observations on the working document, and meet in small discussion groups to propose changes to the text, or to suggest new texts and additional areas for consideration.

The 2018 synod, a meeting of 267 bishops and other Church leaders, is tasked with developing a document on young people, the faith, and vocational discernment.

The modern form of synods in the Latin Catholic Church began with the 1965 promulgation of Pope Paul VI’s Apostolica sollicitudo. That document established some processes and procedures governing the work of a synod, as did revisions made in 1969 and 1971. The 1983 Code of Canon Law gave additional clarity.

But the 2006 rescript Ordo synodi episcoporum established the most detailed procedural rules for every aspect of a synod of bishops, among them the election of members; the appointment, work, and authority of the general secretariat and general relator; and the voting on proposals (modi) and documents, including the points to be included in the final report.

Ordo synodi episcoporum required that modi and documents be voted on according to a procedure allowing bishops to make additional amendments, and delineating specific cases when a 2/3 majority of voting bishops would be required, and others cases that would require only an absolute majority (50 percent+1) of bishops.

According to those procedural rules, synod fathers were able to vote on proposals made for amendments or additions to the document, and eventually to vote on their approval of the document as a whole; those votes would require 2/3s majorities.

Though these procedural norms were tweaked in recent years, they remained largely intact. But on Sept. 15, they were abrogated- revoked- when Pope Francis promulgated a new document governing synods, the apostolic constitution Episcopalis communio.

Episcopalis communio eliminates nearly all specific procedural norms pertaining to the synod, including the established procedures for proposing amendments and for voting, and sets no specific approval thresholds for documents generated by the synod.

Instead of establishing specific rules, the September document calls on the General Secretary for Synod of Bishops, now Cardinal Lorenzo Baldisseri, to issue instructions on those matters, and “regulations for each Synod Assembly.”

No such instructions or regulations seem to have been issued for the current synod, at least not publicly.

The general rules promulgated in September do explain that the synod should seek “moral unanimity insofar as this is possible” on a final document written by the drafting committee, and that “approval of the members” should be obtained before that document is presented to the pope, who is newly able to promulgate it directly as an expression of his ordinary magisterium.

Neither “moral unanimity” nor “approval by the members” are defined in the document, nor are they technical terms in canon law. At the moment, the General Secretary is able to interpret them according to his own judgment, and is bound to seek “moral unanimity,” whatever he decides that to mean, only insofar as he judges it to be possible. While the document says that particular law can determine how approval is to be sought, that particular law is precisely what has not yet been issued.

Nevertheless, Baldisseri has given some indication of how he understands the idea of “moral unanimity.”

“It is a matter of achieving a consensus that clearly goes beyond 50 percent. However, there is no legal definition. Moral unanimity is not defined by numbers,” he said Sept. 17, according to La Croix International.

Baldisseri and other Vatican officials have declined to indicate how much more than 50 percent would indicate “moral unanimity” among the bishops.

In the absence of particular regulations, the General Secretary is no longer obliged to hold votes on modi proposed to the drafting committee, as he was under the policies of the 2006 norms.  He must now only hear from the discussion groups before deciding how to proceed, with a considerable amount of latitude.

Absent regulations to the contrary, the General Secretary is at liberty to conduct, for example, only one yea or nay vote on a final synod document prepared by the drafting committee, without opening the floor for debate, or holding votes on particular sections or proposals offered by the bishops.

Furthermore, because of the September document’s caveat that moral unanimity might be unobtainable, the General Secretary may consider the document to be approved with anything more than 50 percent of votes, regardless of whether the bishops are obviously divided on controversial questions. Subsequent to such a vote, he may present a document to the Holy Father for approval as a part of the Church’s ordinary magisterium.

The procedures used at the 2018 synod are likely to be used again at the 2019 Special Synod on the Pan-Amazonian Region, and in synods subsequent to that as well.

Cardinal Wifrid Napier of Durban, South Africa, told CNA Oct. 13 that in his estimation, the synod is proceeding along the same course as the previous eight synods he has attended. He added that while he has trust in the synod process and in organizers, he is uncertain about how voting will work in the later stages of the meeting. Napier mentioned that the process used in past synods, the one governed by the 2006 norms, “worked quite well.”

Although Pope Francis has technically abrogated them, it still seems reasonable that the pope might intend for the procedural norms established by prior law to largely govern the proceedings of this synod, even if Baldisseri’s remarks are decidedly more circumspect. Certainly, the meeting has proceeded to this point according to the ordinary way of doing things. But the synod fathers have good reason to seek clarity.

As Napier told CNA Saturday: “It’s when we get into the hall [for final deliberations] that I think that process still has to be explained to us more clearly.”

It seems unlikely that many synod fathers will be content with the ambiguous answers offered thus far by synod organizers. Few are likely to consider it fair if they are asked to continue working, getting closer to final deliberations, with no real understanding of the meeting’s rules. And observers, especially the pope’s critics, are likely to begin questioning the legitimacy of the synod’s proceedings if it is not governed by a clearly defined process.

It could also become a detriment to the credibility of the synod, and even the communion of the synod fathers, if voting rules were to become a point of division and rancor at the last minute. For those reasons, synod fathers may judge it better that norms be discussed and promulgated as soon as possible, so that the final deliberations are not clouded by discontment or confusion about the rules.

To some observers, the most critical issue is not just that the rules be clarified, but that those rules reflect a genuinely “synodal” approach to the assessment of recommendations to the pope.

Questions have been raised frequently during this synod about whether the final texts are already a fait accompli, devised mostly by curial officials before the meeting began, and likely to be passed with only very few modifications from the synod fathers. If the synod fathers are not permitted to vote on sections of the documents in isolation, or to meaningfully propose amendments, there will be an ongoing debate about whether the final texts reflect the authentic consensus of the synod fathers themselves. Pope Francis is likely eager to avoid such a debate.

Of course, doctrine isn’t determined democratically, and the function of this synod is only to advise. But some observers say that if the pope has convened the synod to hear the views of the participating bishops, taking a real measure of consensus should matter. It seems clear that if the pope wants to ensure he is getting advice from the synod hall, instead of from the permanent secretariat, he may decide to insist that Baldisseri take a meaningful measure of episcopal reactions to each aspect of the proposed synodal documents.

The bishops most in support of the pope’s efforts to reform the synod are likely to begin advocating for clarity, and for the regulations called for by the September document, as soon as possible. The promulgation of those regulations, along with open debate and the possibility for synod fathers to amend procedure by majority vote, would likely quell the critics who argue that the September norms make the synod a less democratic affair.

There is no norm in Episcopalis communio allowing for democratic objections to procedural law, unlike the 2006 synod norms that allowed for bishops to raise objections to procedures, and to resolve “questions of procedure” through the vote of an absolute majority. Still, it is reasonable to expect Pope Francis, who has been widely praised for active and collaborative engagement with the synod, to communicate the synod’s voting rules with enough time to allow for open and free discussion about them among the synod fathers.

When he established the synod of bishops, Pope Paul VI told bishops that his ministry depended upon the “consolation of their presence, the help of their wisdom and experience, the support of their counsel, and the voice of their authority.” In the week ahead, the wisdom and experience of the 2018 Synod of Bishops seems likely to be deployed to help the pope fairly and transparently govern the synod process itself.

The discovery of a 10-year-old’s body at an ancient Roman site in Italy suggests measures were taken to prevent the child, possibly infected with malaria, from rising from the dead and spreading disease to the living.

The skeletal remains, uncovered by archaeologists from the University of Arizona and Stanford University, along with archaeologists from Italy, included a skull with a rock intentionally inserted into the mouth. Researchers believe the stone may have been placed there as part of a funeral ritual designed to contain disease – and the body itself.

The discovery of this unusual, so-called “vampire burial” was made over the summer in the commune of Lugnano in Teverina in the Italian region of Umbria, where UA archaeologist David Soren has overseen archaeological excavations since 1987.

“I’ve never seen anything like it. It’s extremely eerie and weird,” said Soren, a Regents’ Professor in the UA School of Anthropology and Department of Religious Studies and Classics. “Locally, they’re calling it the ‘Vampire of Lugnano.'”

The discovery was made at La Necropoli dei Bambini, or the Cemetery of the Babies, which dates to the mid-fifth century when a deadly malaria outbreak swept the area, killing many vulnerable babies and small children. The bodies of the young victims were buried at the site of an abandoned Roman villa that was originally constructed at the end of the first century B.C.

Until now, archaeologists believed the cemetery was designated specifically for infants, toddlers and unborn fetuses; in previous excavations of more than 50 burials, a 3-year-old girl was the oldest child found.

The discovery of the 10-year-old, whose age was determined based on dental development but whose sex is unknown, suggests that the cemetery may have been used for older children as well, said bioarcheologist Jordan Wilson, a UA doctoral student in anthropology who analyzed the skeletal remains in Italy.

“There are still sections of the cemetery that we haven’t excavated yet, so we don’t know if we’ll find other older kids,” Wilson said.

Excavation director David Pickel, who has a master’s degree in classical archaeology from the UA and is now a doctoral student at Stanford, said the discovery has the potential to tell researchers much more about the devastating malaria epidemic that hit Umbria nearly 1,500 years ago, as well as the community’s response to it.

“Given the age of this child and its unique deposition, with the stone placed within his or her mouth, it represents, at the moment, an anomaly within an already abnormal cemetery,” Pickel said. “This just further highlights how unique the infant – or now, rather, child – cemetery at Lugnano is.”

Witchcraft as disease control

In previous excavations at the Cemetery of the Babies, archaeologists found infant and toddler bones alongside items like raven talons, toad bones, bronze cauldrons filled with ash and the remains of puppies that appear to have been sacrificed – all objects commonly associated with witchcraft and magic. In addition, the body of the 3-year-old girl had stones weighing down her hands and feet – a practice used by different cultures throughout history to keep the deceased in their graves.

“We know that the Romans were very much concerned with this and would even go to the extent of employing witchcraft to keep the evil – whatever is contaminating the body – from coming out,” Soren said.

The “evil,” in the case of the babies and toddlers uncovered in Lugnano, was malaria, Soren believed. DNA testing of several of the excavated bones supported his theory.

Although the 10-year-old’s remains have not yet undergone DNA testing, the child had an abscessed tooth – a side effect of malaria – that suggests he or she may also have fallen victim to the disease, Wilson said.

The child was one of five new burials uncovered at the cemetery over the summer. The body was found lying on its left side in a makeshift tomb created by two large roof tiles propped against a wall – an alla cappuccina-style burial typical of Roman Italy.

“Knowing that two large roof tiles were used for this burial, I was expecting something unique to be found inside, perhaps a ‘double-inhumation’ – not uncommon for this cemetery – where a single burial contains two individuals,” Pickel said. “After removing the roof tiles, however, it became immediately clear to us that we were dealing with an older individual.”

The open position of the child’s jaw, which would not have opened naturally during decomposition with the body positioned on its side, suggests that the rock was intentionally inserted in the mouth after death, Wilson said. Teeth marks on the surface of the stone provide further evidence that it was placed purposefully.

The 10-year old was the first at the cemetery to be found with a stone in its mouth. Similar burials have been documented in other locations, including in Venice, where an elderly 16th-century woman dubbed the “Vampire of Venice” was found with a brick in her mouth in 2009. In Northamptonshire, England, in 2017, an adult male from the third or fourth century was found buried facedown with his tongue removed and replaced with a stone.

These types of burials are often referred to as vampire burials, since they are associated with a belief that the dead could rise again. Other examples of vampire burials throughout history include bodies being staked to the ground through the heart or dismembered prior to interment.

“This is a very unusual mortuary treatment that you see in various forms in different cultures, especially in the Roman world, that could indicate there was a fear that this person might come back from the dead and try to spread disease to the living,” Wilson said.

Archaeologists will return to Lugnano next summer to complete excavations of the cemetery and learn more about a dark time in history.

“It’s a very human thing to have complicated feelings about the dead and wonder if that’s really the end,” Wilson said. “Anytime you can look at burials, they’re significant because they provide a window into ancient minds. We have a saying in bioarchaeology: ‘The dead don’t bury themselves.’ We can tell a lot about people’s beliefs and hopes and by the way they treat the dead.”

NHS patients are being let down by a global health innovation system which fails to deliver the treatments they need at prices that government can afford, according to a new report led by Professor Mariana Mazzucato, Director of the UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose (IIPP), in collaboration with STOPAIDS, Global Justice Now and Just Treatment.

The report, The People’s Prescription: Re-imagining health innovation to deliver public value, warns that health innovation is being hampered by a drive for profit and calls for a major overhaul of the system to ensure that more drugs and treatments are developed for critical health needs. Crucially it addresses both the rate and the direction of innovation.

Although innovation in health is vital for the development of drugs used by the NHS and healthcare systems around the world, the report finds that the current system for developing drugs incentivises high prices and delivers short-term returns to shareholders, rather than focusing on riskier, longer-term research which leads to critically needed therapeutic advances.

The authors warn that the high prices of medicines are causing severe patient access problems worldwide with damaging consequences for health and wellbeing. The solution is not as simple as demanding lower prices but to understand how the characteristics of the system must be overhauled, from the dynamics of patents which are hurting transparency and collaboration to the ways in which corporate governance hurt innovation.

With the system ‘fundamentally broken’, the report maps out fault lines and recommends new concrete policy actions to deliver public value for the greatest health need.

Last year, NHS England spent £1bn on medicines that had received public investment, while spending on drugs is rising at five times the rate its budget is rising.

Key points include:

• Research and development priorities are not determined by public health needs. The system ignores diseases – such as tuberculosis – that are most prevalent in developing countries. Meanwhile, more than half of approved medicines in recent years offered no additional health benefits.
• The number of new drugs approved against research and development (R & D) spend has declined from around 40 drugs per $1bn of R & D in the 1950s to less than 0.65 drugs per $1bn spend this century, representing a huge drop in innovation and productivity.
• Pharmaceutical companies are increasingly focused on maximising short-term financial returns to shareholders, rather than funding health advances in the public interest. The 19 pharmaceutical companies included in the S&P 500 Index in January 2017 (and listed 2006-15) spent $297bn on repurchasing their own shares between 2007-16–61% of their combined R&D expenditures in this period.

Professor Mariana Mazzucato said: “The diagnosis looks bleak for the health innovation system; it’s expensive and unproductive and requires a complete transformation. We have a situation now where the NHS is a huge buyer of drugs and the UK government is a significant investor in the development of new treatments, yet big pharmaceutical companies are calling the shots.

“In the year of the 70th anniversary of the NHS, this is an ideal time to take stock and rethink the system with a move towards a model that prioritises long-term public value above short-term corporate profits.”

As an immediate policy action, the report calls on governments to pursue their legal right to procure affordable generic versions of patented medicines if companies refuse to drop their prices to levels affordable to national health systems such as the NHS. These legal rights are known as Flexibilities within the World Trade Organisation’s TRIPS rules (Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights). This could mean huge savings for the NHS. For example, evidence shows that the prices the UK pays for some cancer medicines could be reduced by between 75% and 99.6% if they could be procured as generics.

Intellectual property rules should also be reformed to make vital medicines more affordable and open to innovation, with patents only issued to truly innovative technology.

Long-term recommendations include:

• A mission-oriented approach to improving health outcomes, where governments can set the direction of health innovation by focusing the energy of state, civil society and the private sector on clearly articulated public health goals.
• Changing how corporate governance works; rethinking the role of the public sector and improving the structure of the private sector.
• Better deals through conditionality; governments should be able to negotiate better deals as the main investors in new treatments, instead of rewards being disproportionately shared with the private sector.

Conditionality would also prevent the public from paying twice for medicines. A treatment for prostate cancer – Abiraterone – was discovered by the Institute for Cancer Research (ICR), which receives 38 per cent of its funding from charities and the UK Medical Research Council, and 14 per cent from other government funding. The NHS then spent £172 million on the drug between 2014 and 2016, following five years of negotiations when the price was set just below NICE’s upper limit of acceptable costs. By the end of 2017, Johnson & Johnson had made around £1.9 billion in sales and the ICR had earned just £137 million.

Mission-oriented research and innovation involves strategic decision making in both governments and business through purpose-led missions. This approach focuses on problem-specific challenges, which many different sectors interact to solve. The focus on problems, and new types of collaborations between public and private actors to solve them, creates the potential for greater spillovers than a sectoral approach. It was this approach that put a man on the moon, and lay behind the creation of the internet and entire new sectors like biotechnology.

Heidi Chow, Senior Campaigns Manager, Global Justice Now, said: “A pharmaceutical industry that makes billions in profits without providing the affordable medicines that people need is one of the scandals of our time. It’s easy to feel that there is no alternative, but in fact there are a whole host of alternatives that are already working in a number of countries. It is time to scale up what’s working, and drop what’s not so that people here in the UK and around the world can access the effective treatments they need.”

Saoirse Fitzpatrick, Senior Advocacy Adviser, STOPAIDS, added: “We have to face the reality that our current system for developing medicines is not matching people’s health needs. If we carry on with business as usual then we are going to end up bankrupting patients and health services with high priced drugs and wasting precious financial resources on copycat medicines which do nothing but add to the pharmaceutical industry’s profits.

“We know there are other models out there, we need governments to work from this evidence base and build an alternative system for health innovation that gives us the medicines people need at prices we can all afford.”

Diarmaid McDonald, Lead Organiser, Just Treatment, said: “NHS patients, like those who lead Just Treatment, have had their access to vital medicines delayed or denied because of the unaffordable prices charged by the industry. Sadly these high prices are not going away – they lie at the heart of our current medical innovation system. Until governments follow the recommendations in this report and set about creating a pharmaceutical system that puts patients and public health at its core, our health and our health systems will continue to suffer as pharmaceutical profits continue to soar.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin has strongly reminded newly arrived foreign ambassadors of their important mission of promoting relations between their individual countries and Russia, encouraging political dialogue and expanding economic and humanitarian ties.

He received letters of credence from 23 new foreign ambassadors, including four from Africa, in the Alexander Hall of the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow. The African ambassadors are: Chol Tong Mayay Jang (Republic of South Sudan), Retselisitsoe Calvin Masenyetse (Kingdom of Lesotho), Komi Bayedze Dagoh (Togolese Republic) and Simon Marco Mumwi (United Republic of Tanzania).

While further addressing them, Putin pointed out that “Russia is dedicated to a peaceful policy and progressively carries out a responsible course in its foreign policy. Russia stands against using politically motivated protectionism measures and sidestepping the norms of international law.”

He explained that Russia’s active participation in global affairs and openness to mutually beneficial partnerships with all countries and regions were motivated by national interest: to create the most favourable conditions possible for Russia to develop dynamically, to achieve ambitious social and economic goals, and improve quality of life for Russians.

In his speech, Putin told the Tanzanian ambassador, Simon Marco Mumwi, “Russia is open to improving mutually beneficial ties with Tanzania, particularly, in nuclear energy and the military-technical sector. And Kremlin welcomes efforts of the Tanzanian government aimed at maintaining peace and security on the African continent.”

Several years ago, Putin rated Tanzania as one of Russia’s key partners in Africa and expressed the desire to strengthen ties in a broad range of fields, noting that there was a big potential for cooperation in areas such as exploration and mining operations. That pledge of exploration and mining operations has been re-affirmed many times.

In other fields, Russia and Tanzania have signed an agreement on cooperation in the defense industry, which envisages arms supplies and cooperation in the military goods production. Russia trains Tanzanian citizens in many universities and institutes in the Russian Federation.

Putin told Chol Tong Mayay Jang, who is representing South Sudan in the Russian Federation, that Russia was ready to advocate a prompt resolution of the internal conflict in South Sudan. It would also support the efforts of mediating states, regional organisations and the international community.

In September 2012, Putin acknowledged that building relations with the newly created Republic of South Sudan was an important part of Russia’s efforts to contribute to development in Africa. He warmly expressed the hope that the establishment and development of South Sudan and its economy would create many opportunities for carrying out joint projects.

With Ambassador Komi Bayedze Dagoh from the Republic of Togo, the Russian leader indicated that his country is interested in expanding friendly diplomatic ties and has good cooperation prospects in geological exploration and the military-technical area while at the same time continues cooperating in training professionals for the small coastal West African country.

In the context of further development of friendly relations with the Kingdom of Lesotho, Russia would pay attention to implementing joint projects, such as extraction of raw materials using Russian technology and investment. Putin said that Russia was satisfied with the level of coordination on issues on the global and African agenda.

In a friendly traditional atmosphere and due to the fact that Russia attaches great importance to relations with each country, Putin concluded by giving the highest assurance in making [the ambassadors] diplomatic activities as productive as possible and that all their initiatives would be supported, at all times, by the Russian leadership, executive bodies, businesses and society.

BULLSHIT!!

TAHI LEMBU !!! *cowdung in Malay

Yes, that was the translation in a 1976 movie I saw in Kuantan, Malaysia when I was a young boy. One of the characters was accusing the other of lying about the whereabouts of the grizzly bear I recall.  And he was angry and cursed. I thought that was strong language, that kids like me should not have been exposed to! So, I thought too, was the way Americans said “cowdung” too when they heard someone telling lies. Was it bad translation? Or simply the goal of subtitling – to orientate Malaysians to speak like Americans. I was too young to know. I had not lived in America then. I now offer a view, after being an “American,” as well.

My brief notes, by way of a close reading is to look at how an author, a young Thai trained in the ways of Americanism I believe, crafted his inspiring and illumination collection of personal essays he called Sightseeing.  The title hinted that he has approached his experienced as a “once participant observer,” ethnographically speaking, able to now explain in an American sub-counter-cultural vernacular of patois his experience growing up. I shall focus on the craft of using curse language in Rattawut Lapcharoensap’s memoir.

Does a curse word in any language, feel the same?

A Thai cursing in American, kind of story of farangs, and tom yam, and Bangkok brothels and a gangsta kind of writing!

“You give them history, temples, pagodas, and traditional dance, floating markets, seafood curry, tapioca desserts, silk-weaving cooperatives, but all they really want is to ride some hulking beast like a bunch of wildmen and to pant over girls and to lie there half-dead getting skin cancer on the beach during the time in between”. (pg. 2)

Those are words from the author’s mother, referred to as “Ma” talking about visitors of the motel on the island, in the beginning chapter “Farangs” (or outsiders/foreigners/tourists visiting) of Thailand. This chapters sets the tone for the author’s description of the people as well as his use of the American “white gangsta drawn from the Hippie/Woodstock counter-culture” language, as I would term it to distinguish from pure “gangsta hip hop R&B and rap language Snoop-Dogg-Flavor-Flav-Fifty Cents-inspired” dialect and idiolect commonly used in Black entertainment television.

One particularly interesting recollection in the author’s fine set of stories of growing up is in the chapter “At the Cafe Lovely,” in which he learned from his older brother Anek how to be a man by first, being brought to nightclub-cum brothel.

This chapter contains a wealth of American lingo and curse words and phrases used almost excessively I believe, making me wonder if indeed Thai youth are actually that Americanized, or is it a way for the author himself to break in the American market of readership by sprucing the novel with unnatural “patois” or the vernacular of the locals. This seems to be my central question as I read the stories. Rattawut Lapcharoensap’s Sightseeing is not a translated work, I reminded myself. It is therefore written from a Thai-American point of view perhaps? Looking back at those growing up years in Thailand from an American vantage point of view, perhaps?

It is both a question of natural-ness as well as artificialness. Consider the dialogue when Anek offered the author a hamburger for his birthday and the latter threw out.

I threw up all over that shiny American linoleum floor.

A hush fell over the place followed by a smattering of giggles.

‘Oh you fucking pussy,” Anek hissed

‘I’m sorry, Anek.”

‘You goddamn motherfucking, monkey cock-sucking piece of low-class pussy.”

I wiped my lips with my forearm. Anek pulled me to my feet, led me out to the glass double doors, his hands on my collar ” (pgs. 29-30)

The above is an interesting scene and dialogue exemplifying what I meant by the naturalness of the patois. My question is: would an elder brother use such a language, Street-Americanized in nature too, on a 12-year old who had problems digesting the burger?

In a next dialogue, the author’s brother continues with his linguistic tirade, with a reference to the crucifixion of Jesus of Nazareth.

“Oh. My. Fucking Lord. Why?” Anek moaned, lifting his face to the sky. “Oh why, Lord. Why hast thou forsaken me?” Anek and I had been watching a lot of Christian movies lately. (pg. 30)

In another passage, in describing about his mother, the author’s brother had to say this when they discovered their mother staring at her bedroom mirror perhaps thinking of her husband who died in a freak work accident when a crane carrying a container malfunctioned send the huge object crashing onto him.

That woman needs help,” Anek said after we washed the dishes that evening.

“She’s just sad, Anek”

“Listen, kid. I’m sad too, okay? Do you see me walking around like a mute, though? Do you see me sneaking the house like I’m some fucking ninja?” (pg. 32)

Before moving on to a further analysis of the linguistic device vis-a-viz patois ala American gangsta language the author used especially in this chapter on visiting the brothel, I present the list of words and phrases highlighted in bold used in the chapter, illustrating the nature of naturalness of the dialogue:

“I’ll kill you, you little shit. I’ll kill you if you break my bike,” (pg. 33)

“I’m going to nail you to a fucking cross, like Jesus-Fucking-Christ” (pg. 33)

“Eat shit, Anek”” Ow,” I cried rubbing my head with a palm. “That fucking hurt” (pg. 37)

“Be careful what you wish for, The AIDS might eat your dick.” (pg. 37)

“I tell you guys, though. One hit and I’m done. I don’t like having my little brother around this shit” (pg. 40)

“I should kill you for being up here. I should snap your head right off your fucking neck.” (pg. 48)

“Hey, “Anek yelled again getting closer. “That’s my little brother you cocksucker. Put him down.” (pg. 49)

“Accelerate” Anek said. “No fucking way.” (pg. 53)

“Good,” he whispered into my ear. “Good. good. You’ve got it. You’re fucking doing it. … “pg. 53)

The phrases above appear as dialogue at different scenes beginning when the author was brought by his brother Anek to a brothel at the edge of town, at Café Lovely. Anek was reluctant to bring him but nonetheless did so because the author insisted, as a “birthday trip”. The use of American gangsta language is extensive, in his chapter.

Especially in this chapter on rites of passage in Sightseeing I am not sure if the language is overused or is it as natural as how the author had thought he’d be subjected to, even of the curse words and phrases are in Thai. But then again, would that include reference to the mother as well? Is this also embedded in the Thai language structure and stylistics when it comes to cursing someone?

I believe there is a disjuncture of usage, in the narration of this scene. How would the dialogue sound and feel like in Thai?

Conclusion

I conclude that in Sightseeing the linguistic device used by Rattawut Lapchareonsap in expressing anger and disgust by way of the deployment of American WASP (“White-Anglo-Saxon-Protestant”) man-cave gangsta curse slang words has its unique reason. To capture the essence of the dialogue as well as the way the author’s vantage point, when speaking to an American audience. Un-natural though it might read and sound to the Thai reader, it serves the purpose of what the author has intended to do – to create that linguistic bridge and to make the American feel what it is like to read stories of a different culture yet able to relate to the way they are told and the way conversations take place.  That is the authorial decision and his poetic veto, although I believe that the goal of cross-cultural memoir-writing is not only to entertain, delight, and to narrate life lessons but also to instruct and educate other readers on the richness of other languages. Because language not only mirrors reality, but also is reality, and alters or conserves it.

Bibliography

Lapchareonsap, Rattawut. (2005). Sightseeing. (New York: Grove Press)

A Kazakh court is set to put to the test China’s ability to impose its will and strongarm Muslim nations into remaining silent about its brutal crackdown on Turkic Muslims in the north-western province of Xinjiang.

The court will hear an appeal by a former worker in one of Xinjiang’s multiple re-education camps against the rejection of her request for asylum. The appeal illustrates the political quagmire faced by Central Asian nations and Turkey given their ethnic, cultural and linguistic ties to China’s estimated 11 million Turkic Muslims that include 1.5 million people of Kazakh descent.

It also highlights China’s risky bet on being able to leverage its economic power to ensure the Muslim world’s silence about what amounts to the most concerted effort in recent history to reshape Muslim religious practice.

Up to one million Turkic Muslims have, according to the United Nations, been detained in a network of re-education camps in which they are being forced to accept the superiority of Chinese Communist Party beliefs and the leadership of President Xi Jinping above the precepts of Islam.

Beyond the camps, Turkic Muslims in Xinjiang, a strategic minerals-rich province bordering on eight Central and South Asian nations that China has turned into a 21^st century Orwellian surveillance state, are forced to refrain from religious practice and custom in public.

After denying the existing of the camps for the longest period of time, China last month felt obliged to acknowledge them and give them legal cover.

Authorities in Xinjiang amended their anti-extremism regulations “to allow local governments to set up institutions to provide people affected by extremist thoughts with vocational skills training and psychological counselling.” China asserts that the crackdown is intended to counter extremism, separatism and terrorism.

China’s acknowledgement was designed to counter the UN report, threats of US sanctions against officials and companies involved in the Xinjiang crackdown, and revelations by 41-year-old Sayragul Sauytbay, a Chinese national of Kazakh descent.

Ms. Sauytbay testified in an open Kazakh court that she had been employed in a Chinese re-education camp for Kazakhs only that had 2,500 inmates. She said she was aware of two more such camps reserved for Kazakhs.

Ms. Sauytbay was standing trial for entering Kazakhstan illegally after having been detained at China’s request.

She told the court that she had escaped to Kazakhstan after being advised by Chinese authorities that she would never be allowed to join her family because of her knowledge of the camps. Ms. Sauytbay was given a six-month suspended sentence and released from prison to join her recently naturalized husband and children.

Since then, Ms. Sauytbay’s application for asylum has been rejected and she has until the end of October to leave Kazakhstan. She hopes that an appeal court will reverse the rejection.

Ms. Sauytbay’s case puts the Kazakh government between a rock and a hard place and is but one of a string of recent cracks in the Muslim wall of silence.

Kazakh authorities have to balance a desire to kowtow to Chinese demands with a growing anti-Chinese sentiment that demands that the government stand up for its nationals as well as Chinese nationals of Kazakh descent.

Ms. Sauytbay’s revelations that ethnic Kazakhs were also targeted in the Chinese crackdown sparked angry denunciations in Kazakhstan’s parliament.

“There should be talks taking place with the Chinese delegates. Every delegation that goes there should be bringing this topic up… The key issue is that of the human rights of ethnic Kazakhs in any country of the world being respected,” said Kunaysh Sultanov, a member of parliament and former deputy prime minister and ambassador to China.

In a further crack, Malaysia this week released 11 Uyghurs who were detained after having escaped detention in Thailand.

The Uyghurs were allowed to leave the country for Turkey. The move, coming in the wake of a decision by Germany and Sweden to suspend deportations of Uyghurs to China, puts on the spot countries like Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, where Uyghurs risk extradition.

Malaysia’s release of the Uyghurs occurred days before Anwar Ibrahim took the first hurdle in becoming the country’s next prime minister by this weekend winning a parliamentary by election.

Mr. Ibrahim last month became the Muslim world’s most prominent politician to speak out about the crackdown in Xinjiang.

Earlier, Rais Hussin, a supreme council member of Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad’s Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) party and head of its Policy and Strategy Bureau, cautioned that “that geographical proximity cannot be taken advantage by China to ride roughshod over everything that Malaysia holds dear, such as Islam, democracy, freedom of worship and deep respect for every country’s sovereignty… On its mistreatment of Muslims in Xinjiang almost en masse, Malaysia must speak up, and defend the most basic human rights of all.”

Pakistan’s Religious Affairs and Interfaith Harmony minister, Noorul Haq Qadri, was forced to raise the issue of Turkic Muslims with Chinese ambassador Yao Xing under pressure from Pakistanis whose spouses and relatives had been detained in the Xinjiang crackdown.

Ms. Sauytbay’s appeal for asylum is likely to refocus public opinion in Kazakhstan and other Central Asian nations on the plight of their Turkic brethren.

“She will not be deported, we will not allow it,” said Ms. Sauytbay’s lawyer, Abzal Kuspanov.

Mr. Kuspanov’s defense of Ms. Sauytbay is about far more than the fate of a former Chinese re-education camp employee. It will serve as a barometer of China’s ability to impose its will. If China succeeds, it will raise the question at what price. The answer to that is likely to only become apparent over time.

By Doug French*

On, Wednesday the DJIA took an 800 plus point beating. On Thursday, another 500 points were shed. At the same time, the mood of real estate buyers has darkened. Austrian Business Cycle Theory is proven right again.

President Trump is blaming the central bank, “No, I think the Fed is making a mistake. They’re so tight. I think Fed has gone crazy.” Just in case Chairman Powell was listening and cares, Trump repeated the “crazy” line over and over.

The Powell and Trump relationship doesn’t look to be anything like the Nixon-Arthur Burns bromance of the 1970’s. “I really disagree with what the Fed is doing, okay?’ the president said.

After the 2008 crash, the Federal Reserve provided a ocean, rather than a punchbowl, of liquidity and the elixir has gushed to the usual suspects: Wall Street, Washington D.C., Silicon Valley, and real estate. New Fed Chair Jerome Powell has, so far, proved to be made of sturdier stuff than predecessor Janet Yellen. Quantitative Easing (QE) has turned to Quantitative Tightening (QT). The central bank balance sheet is slowly shrinking. The Fed Funds rate has been raised from 7 to 195 basis points. The yield on the 10-year Treasury has more than doubled from it’s 2016 low.

Mark Thornton’s The Skyscraper Curse: And How Austrian Economists Predicted Every Major Economic Crisis of the Last Century couldn’t be more timely. As we slide from boom to bust, the thoughtful and curious will want answers. Thornton has them.

While Thornton’s work on skyscrapers has top billing, with his explanation of the various new technologies which make these ever-taller buildings possible, being especially interesting, much of the book is a continuous stream of applying Austrian business cycle theory analysis to the many modern boom and bust episodes.

Towards the book’s end Thornton reiterates that “artificially low interest rates are not something that is obvious to the casual observer…” Many share the view of the president, who has lived on debt, “I like low interest rates.” However, low interest rates should reflect a high savings rate and low time preferences, when in fact, as the author explains, savings rates have fallen since Nixon took America off of what was left of the gold standard, and borrowing at all levels, individual, corporate and government, are setting all-time highs in order to maintain high levels of consumption.

Ten years of artificially depressed interest rates has turned the economy into the walking corporate dead. Old school retailer, Sears, may finally give up the ghost with a bankruptcy filing. Perhaps more normalized rates will expose new era car maker Tesla, and its flim-flam man chief, Elon Musk, as a capital and tax consumer, not a real entrepreneur. “The bust or economic crisis is when these errors are later discovered,” writes professor Thornton. Musk has bust written all over him.

Reading “Skyscraper” is not academic drudgery. It zips along with interesting anecdotes such as, Milton Friedman’s blindness to the dangers of the housing boom. The libertarian icon told Charley Rose at the end of 2005, “The stability of the economy is greater than it has been in our history. We really are in remarkably good shape. It’s amazing.” Indeed, the boom was amazing. Friedman missed the equally amazing bust. He died in November of 2006.

Thornton has spent time outside the ivory tower and it’s reflected in his book. “The average citizen thinks very little about what makes the economy work,” he writes, “but simply accepts the system for what it is, and tries to make the most of it.”

People look for economic answers in the wrong places. I’m continually stunned by the number of people who believe; the government, the president, or how an election comes out determines how the economy will perform. And, of course, it’s believed, boom times are normal and good, while busts are bad. Interest rates should be low, home and stock prices should be high.

Candidates for the 2020 presidential election, like Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris, are raising income inequality as a campaign issue. However, instead of pointing out, as Thornton does in “Skyscraper” that the gold standard equalized incomes and wealth, they instead propose the ham hand of government with minimum wage increases and housing subsidies.

Murray Rothbard told us in class the creators of inflation, and their friends, benefited from money creation because they received the money first. Thornton points to soaring real estate prices in D.C. and New York, were money is created, as evidence. In addition, the wealthy and well-connected have connections with banks to borrow cheaply to acquire assets, while average folks suffer with retail prices that have been bid up.

Skyscrapers that set world records for height don’t cause economic panics, but are, instead, a warning a boom has reached its peak. When a record-setting building breaks ground the curse has been signaled. “In most episodes,” Thornton writes, “record-breaking skyscrapers generally have their completion dates and opening ceremonies when the economic crisis is readily apparent.”

The Kingdom or Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia was started in 2013, and will be the tallest building in the world. Completion is slated for 2021. The world should be mired in a deep depression by then. Those who read professor Thornton’s book will know why.

About the author:
*Douglas French is former president of the Mises Institute, author of Early Speculative Bubbles & Increases in the Money Supply , and author of Walk Away: The Rise and Fall of the Home-Ownership Myth. He received his master’s degree in economics from UNLV, studying under both Professor Murray Rothbard and Professor Hans-Hermann Hoppe.

Source:
This article was published by the MISES Institute

As Zika emerges as a clear threat, India’s disease-surveillance and disease-control architecture is confronted with the puzzle of solving the curious combination of microcephaly and day-feeding mosquito menace.

By Deepesh Vendoti

The confirmed cases of Zika virus in India — only a handful until few weeks back — has shot up to over 30 cases in just the last week. More than 80 percent of the confirmed cases come from a localised outbreak in Jaipur, Rajasthan. A silent prowler, Zika is now demanding its due attention in India.

Back-to-back developments to assess and control the situation are underway. Concerned over the emerging outbreak, a high level technical meet was convened on 8 October in Delhi. Next day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi sought a review on Zika outbreak in Rajasthan. To allay the fears in the public, Union Health Minister personally briefed the media on the ongoing mitigation efforts, including the support extended by the Centre to the Rajasthan government. While the current focus is clearly on Zika’s epicentre in Rajasthan, it would be a gross misjudgement to approach the ongoing outbreak in isolation or through outbreak control mechanisms alone, over concrete and sustainable efforts to control the most prominent and re-emerging mosquito borne diseases in India, Malaria, Dengue and Chikungunya. Zika — the latest addition to the list of the most prominent and re-emerging mosquito-borne diseases including Malaria, Dengue and Chikungunya — is a unique and interestingly complex case among its genre. Considering Zika’s distinctive disease causation nature, it urgently needs a far more coherent strategy than what was required for other mosquito-borne diseases.

Complex effects of Zika

Zika, originally discovered in 1947 in the forests of Uganda in Africa, has been a low profile virus for over a half century, geographically limiting its impact and presence to parts of Africa, Asia and islands of Western Pacific regions until the last decade. However, the threat of Zika outbreak along with its deadly congenital and neurological consequences unfolded silently over 2015-16, as it crossed boundaries and entered Brazil, most probably through the infected travellers and spreading through the day-feeding Aedes mosquitos. The severity of complications caused by the disease among the newborns set off alarm bells across health officials and also prompted the World Health Organisation (WHO) to declare Zika a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on 1 February 2016. Following this, a long-term Zika Strategic Response Plan was established, urging member states to strengthen national-level efforts and greater collaborative measures to invest on finding vaccines and treatment options.

Zika is tricky and dangerous. It can be totally insusceptible or with very mild symptoms among the infected, including pregnant mothers, but severely affects the new born. Zika has multiple modes of transmission, including through the sexual route. Only one-fifth of the Zika infected adults are known to have identifiable problems — highly non-specific and mild — such as fever, rashes, joint pains and conjunctivitis.

Despite lacking deeper understanding of cell-level biology on Zika disease causation, transmission and consequences, there is ample evidence, as accepted by WHO, on the strong causal linkages for deadly neonatal anomalies with Zika. Prominent among these, microcephaly — literally meaning small head — is a condition of developmental abnormality of serious concern. Children with microcephaly can have multiple sensorineural, motor and developmental difficulties.

Checking Zika

Responding to the global alert, India started its surveillance activities in 2016 itself. Initially, the focus was on screening travellers across ports of entry, especially those returning from the affected countries. The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and the nodal agency National Institute of Virology (NIV) — going beyond surveillance exercises across human and mosquito populations — also geared up with central-level confirmatory testing capacity and also extended preparedness support to regional labs, under the upcoming network of Viral Disease Research Laboratories (VDRL).

As part of scrutiny at public hospitals in Ahmedabad in Gujarat, confirmations for three Zika cases came from mildly symptomatic patients towards the end of 2016 and in early 2017. All the three cases were surprisingly indigenous — with no history of travel to the affected countries — suggestive of silent circulation of the virus in the communities.

Presence for Zika in India, although documented in the 1960s, the virus could not be isolated, remaining inconclusive for its epidemiological presence. However, there was never a guarantee of the absence of Zika in circulation, as surveillance systems in India are not fool proof and still evolving. Results from community-level studies over thousands of samples undertaken over the last two years hinted at low levels of transmission of the virus within the communities. However, Indian researchers cautioned in 2017 on Zika’s silent circulation, with the possibility of a large scale outbreak. A similar scenario was witnessed with the resurgence of Chikungunya as an outbreak in 2000 in Maharashtra after almost a decade of silence, when it was thought to have disappeared from India.

Zika virus strains in India, although different from the more virulent strains found in Africa and Asia, has all the factors for their spread. India has Aedes mosquito vector population thriving on the unhygienic dwellings and conductive climatic conditions. Genetic mutations, too, offer the needed potency for the virus to become stronger. Given the rising trend of Dengue outbreaks, almost endemic in urban pockets across India, and the increasing breeding sites for Aedes mosquito, the current Zika outbreak in Rajasthan cannot to be taken as a case in isolation. This could be the tip of iceberg, with the potential to go berserk, unless halted efficiently and effectively.

As per WHO, 86 countries have documented presence of Zika in 2017 including India, which was placed under ‘Category 2’ countries i.e. “Areas with no evidence of ongoing transmission.” During the period of outbreaks in countries like Brazil and other South American nations from Category 1, which have total populations that are comparable to the population of some of the large Indian states, the numbers affected were in into hundreds and multiples of thousands. Thus, unless acted upon swiftly, India faces a grave risk of getting re-classified into Category 1 i.e. “Area with new introduction or re-introduction with ongoing transmission” and taking the brunt of having to handle thousands of cases suddenly.

Diagnostic difficulties

Timely identification of Zika is quite challenging. With only one-fifth of Zika cases being mildly symptomatic, self-detection is almost never possible. With over 50 percent of the Zika viral makeup mimicking that of the Dengue virus resulting in significant cross reactivity among rapid testing kits — identification at the point of care gets ruled out, even among those with symptoms and already seeking medical care; the advanced molecular testing Real Rime Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) remaining the only dependable option. Specific requirements of sample collection — properly timed around 4-5 days after the onset of infection — and safe transportation to the government identified apex laboratory with RT-PCR, make timely detection of Zika cases towards prevention of outbreaks a challenging task. Considering the larger proportion of out-patient consultations happening in the private sector and most of the ‘slightly’ sick not even visiting a medical practitioner for mild ailments, the existing surveillance mechanisms are handicapped for pre-emptive actions to arrest the possible outbreaks.

In view the inherent challenges for surveillance, targeted focus should be on pregnant mothers who are the most vulnerable, but approachable through antenatal care settings. They need to be tracked throughout their pregnancy with utmost caution. It is important to evolve with a broad strategy involving both private and public medical experts across disciplines i.e. gynaecologists dealing with miscarriages, radiologists conducting ultrasound scans, obstetricians assisting in deliveries and counsellors. Patients with confirmed Zika might need counselling, especially on family planning — if in a reproductive age group or if already pregnant — along with care and support to decide on pregnancy-related matters. Most importantly, lab tests and supportive care for children with microcephaly should be made seamless and freely available for the all patients including from the private sector.

Latest studies from Brazil have found manifestations of neuro-developmental sequalae even among babies visibly normal at birth. This suggests that exercising caution in screening for Zika should not be limited for ‘Congenital microcephaly’ at the time of birth, but for much longer period after the birth of babies. Care for infants with developmental abnormalities could force the parents of affected children to intense psychological and financial shock, also straining public sector efforts and resources.

Way forward 

• Aedes mosquitos are quite different in their living, biting and spreading habits than the Malaria causing Anopheles mosquitos. While Zika-specific surveillance needs to be strengthened to better understand the disease dynamics in the Indian context and also to evolve with a better Zika control strategy, stepping up the fight against “Aedes-Borne Diseases (ABDs)” such as Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika, through an effective “National Mosquito Control Mission” will guard the nation from outbreaks. Such a mission should encompass both integrated mosquito control strategies for ABDs and Malaria elimination, which is at an advanced phase of disease control. The Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare must swiftly move beyond the drafts and discussions stage to make such a mission a reality.
• Zika-specific surveillance among pregnant women has to be appropriately re-designed, anchoring around the antenatal clinics and programmes. Immediate focus should be on all areas with documented outbreaks of Dengue, Chikungunya, Zika or where serological presence of these viruses has been noticed and even linked to areas with prevalence of Aedes mosquito.
• Sentinel surveillance for neonatal abnormalities should cover evaluations from both aborted pregnancies and successful deliveries across private and public sectors. Decision on making microcephaly notifiable needs to be considered with due deliberations, but without any delay.
• Strengthening of State capabilities should be uniform and holistic, right from control of ABDs, expanding diagnostic capabilities and seamless linkages, securing the supportive care services including updated medical provisions for termination of pregnancies and connectivity to real time surveillance across India.
• Communication will play a pivotal role in such scenarios which can potentially lead to widespread public scare. The proposed “National Mosquito Control Mission” must have an effective communications strategy to address all the stakeholders including the people, the political leadership, the entire healthcare ecosystem including the top bureaucracy, officials, doctors and on ground medical and paramedical staff.

Any attempts to downplay the silent epidemic of Zika will not just end in a missed opportunity, but will fuel the larger challenge of congenital anomalies, ethical dilemmas on termination of pregnancies and rehabilitation requirements. Control of mosquitos is far simpler and smarter alternative to act on.

By Kishore Kumar Khera*

War is unforgiving. Threat matrices continuously undergo change. Geopolitics, economics and technology play critical roles in defining these. Therefore, armed forces across the world continuously attempt to reequip, reorganise, restructure and redefine in order to enhance their operational capabilities. The focus of these processes invariably is to build proficiency in the relevant domains for present and future conflict scenarios. With finite financial resources, there is a perpetual debate between quality and quantity. The United States Air Force is presently in this phase and is looking to expand capacity through quantity.

Intent and Plan

“The Air Force is too small for what the nation expects of us,” the United States Air Force (USAF) Secretary Heather Wilson reiterated at the annual Air, Space and Cyber Conference in National Harbor, Maryland, on September 17, 2018.1 She articulated her intentions last year for a bigger air force when assuming this appointment.2 But before making any long-term decisions on the force structure, she wanted to have a better idea of what threats the United States would face in coming years, stating, “I’m a believer that threat drives strategy, strategy drives force posture.”3

The USAF expansion plan is to primarily counter growing military challenges from Russia and China.4 The broad plan unveiled after a long study for the expansion of the USAF seeks to add 74 more squadrons to the current strength of 312 squadrons.5

The exact details of the study are still awaited and about six more studies on force restructuring are likely to be submitted by March 2019 to refine the current assessment. Broadly, the expansion plan is based on the 2018 United States National Defense Strategy that calls on the USAF to defend the homeland, provide a safe and effective nuclear deterrent, meet a peer threat and deter a near-peer threat while maintaining campaign momentum against global extremism.6

On the human resource front, USAF active personnel strength reduced from 357,000 in 2006, hitting a low of 311,000 in 2014 before rebounding to roughly 322,800 now, with the intention of hitting 350,000 by about 2024.7 Nearly USD one billion per annum is reportedly being spent by USAF to retain personnel, including incentive pay and bonuses. As of mid-2017, the force was 3,000 personnel below strength in terms of aircraft-maintenance staff and around 1,200 short of tactical-combat-aircraft pilots.8 Making good the existing shortfall and then planning for future expansion will be a herculean human resource mobilisation task. It is estimated that the full implementation of the plan would need an additional 40,000 personnel.9

Inventory Analysis

Looking at the current inventory mix of the USAF, the emphasis on fighters and airlift capabilities are apparent (Figure 1). Fighter aircraft try to achieve airspace control so that other kinetic elements can operate freely. Additionally, these aircraft provide long range accurate delivery of kinetic weapons to achieve tactical and operational objectives. The transport fleet is required to achieve a high mobility quotient for the combat forces.

With a global outlook for military operations and current deployment in almost all parts of the world, the necessity for very high airlift capability is essential. Aerial refuellers (Tankers) and Command and Control, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C2ISR) assets are also in substantial strength. The tanker force helps in the deployment and employment of combat power, minimising en route halts. This compresses the deployment timeline and, additionally, helps in retaining an element of surprise by allowing combat aircraft to project force far away from their operating bases. In so far as C2ISR assets are concerned, their significance is related to the ability to enhance battlespace transparency for the accurate planning and controlling of missions for safe execution. Invariably, these, along with space resources, are the first assets to be employed to gain a picture of the battlespace.

The USAF expansion plan envisages an addition of 74 squadrons. An analysis of these additional squadrons brings to fore the changing character of likely combat engagements. The two most prominent verticals being planned for expansion are C2ISR platforms and aerial refuellers (tankers) (Figure 2). In addition, an additional seven squadrons for fighter combat aircraft and five squadrons for bombers are being planned. But no accretions are envisaged for the cyber and missile force; their capability enhancement would be through equipment upgradations only. And although Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) have expanded their operational role, no major expansion is planned in this field.

The prime reason for such a lopsided approach in favour of manned combat aircraft is the limitations of UAVs in a hostile air defence environment. Russia and China have developed and deployed advanced air defence systems. A number of countries are in the process of acquiring high technology air defence systems from Russia and China. The proliferation of such advanced air defence systems will limit the efficacy of UAV operations. That may be a possible reason for the limited expansion envisaged for the UAV fleet in the restructuring plan. With an increase in manned combat aircraft, an increase in resources for Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) is an obvious fallout. Consequently, the plan envisages an additional nine squadrons for CSAR.

Proposed Force Structure

Once the proposed accretions fructify, the USAF force structure will, for the first time, have an equal numbers of squadrons for C2ISR and fighter aircraft (Figure 3). In the heavy aircraft category also, parity will be achieved between tankers and airlift aircraft for the first time. Special operations squadrons and space units will increase their share from current levels.

A close examination of force accretion planned over and above the existing inventory given in Figure 4 indicates that the current USAF dispensation feels an acute shortage of bombers, C2ISR and space assets for likely missions in the coming decade. The expansion plan increases their quantity by over 55 per cent. A major increase in C2ISR and space assets is indicative of an increased requirement to monitor a larger area for a longer duration and with multiple sensors. This kind of surveillance and reconnaissance has become a necessity owing to the changing character of war. Unlike during the Cold War when the focus was on major military manoeuvres with large formations as the key threats, now small teams can operate to achieve critical objectives with strategic implications. This calls for greater monitoring of the area of interest. Hence an increase in C2ISR and Space assets is an obvious assessment.

An added implication of this changing character of war is on special operations. Gradually, their relevance in kinetic operations has increased and these operations are becoming the first option for planners. In certain situations, special operations help achieve the objectives without large-scale force-on-force engagement. With hybridisation of war, the salience of special operations will only increase. It is probably this assessment that has led the USAF to project a 35 per cent increase in the number of special operations squadrons. As the majority of aerial platforms of the USAF are capable of aerial refuelling, an increase in receivers would entail a corresponding increase in tankers. To retain the existing Tanker-Receiver ratio, the tanker force is to enjoy a 35 per cent accretion in numbers.

Against the Historic Tide

For one of the largest air forces in the world to ambitiously expand by nearly 25 per cent seems contrary to the long-term trend. Notwithstanding a number of new facets like cyber, space and missiles added to the arsenal of the USAF, its number of aircraft has been declining steadily for decades since the peak strength of 26,104 aircraft in 1956 (Figure 5). The USAF aircraft inventory has shrunk by over 80 per cent during the last 60 years.

To fulfil the requirements of the expansion plan, an addition of over 400 aircraft will have to take place during the next decade. This will be over and above the replacement of ageing aircraft like the F16 with the F35. It is likely that other arms of the US military organisation will have a similar wish list to expand capabilities, citing the 2018 United States National Defense Strategy. The additional demand for aviation assets from the US Army, US Navy, US Marine Corps and US Coast Guard is likely to be a matter of time. A similar 25 per cent increase by all entities over the next decade will have major implications on force levels and finances. That will be a major dampener. If the plan were to be sanctioned, it will indeed be a bonanza for the aviation industry.

What may happen?

Once all the restructuring studies are submitted and a comprehensive USAF restructuring plan made, the project costing will be done. Based on types of aircraft and equipment planned for induction and the associated increase in manpower, the overall financial outlay for the USAF may have to increase by at least 25 per cent from current levels assuming that no quality compromises are made. That will mean an increase in the USAF’s share in the defence budget.

Another factor that will play a major role in redefining the USAF’s restructuring plan is the creation of the Space Force. The new organisation will probably hive off space assets of the USAF for consolidation under one agency. Furthermore, this entity will probably have a priority for budgetary allocations and further compress the resources that could be made available to the USAF. Before treading on a restructuring path, taking the US Congress along and pacifying other contenders for the annual defence allocation will be the key battles that the USAF will have to fight and win. The outcome of these battles will define the course of the force’s restructuring. Going by the history of such ambitious expansion plans across the globe, it is safe to assume that the restructuring plan will have to be scaled down qualitatively or quantitatively.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India.

About the author:
*Group Captain Kishore Kumar Khera, VM is a serving fighter pilot of the Indian Air Force.

Source:
This article was published by IDSA.

Notes:

• 1. Stephen Losey, “New Air Force secretary: ‘We are too small for what the nation expects of us’,” Air Force Times, June 6, 2017, available at https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2017/06/06/new-air-force-secretary-we-are-too-small-for-what-the-nation-expects-of-us/ (accessed on September 27, 2018).
• 2. Lee Hudson and Jen DiMascio, “Can The U.S. Air Force Add 74 Squadrons? Aviation Week & Space Technology, September 24, 2018, available at http://aviationweek.com/defense/can-us-air-force-add-74-squadrons (accessed on September 27, 2018).
• 3. Losey, n. 1.
• 4. Ken Dalecki, “Air Force Secretary Wilson highlights plans to expand the air force at NPC luncheon,” The National Press Club, September 26, 2018, available at https://www.press.org/news-multimedia/news/air-force-secretary-wilson-hi… (accessed on September 27, 2018).
• 5. Chuck Broadway, “SecAF Wilson provides Air Force update,” USAF, September 17, 2018, available at https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1635645/secaf-wilson-provides-air-force-update/ (accessed on September 27, 2018).
• 6. Hudson and DiMascio, n. 2.
• 7. Losey, n. 1; International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Military Balance 2018, London: Routledge, Chapman & Hall, p. 46.
• 8. ibid, p. 32.
• 9. Hudson and DiMascio, n. 2.
• 10. Secretary of the Air Force Public Affairs, USAF, The Air Force We Need: 386 operational squadrons, September 17, 2018, available at https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1635070/the-air-force-we-need-386-operational-squadrons/ (accessed on September 27, 2018).
• 11. ibid.
• 12. Ibid.
• 13. Ibid.
• 14. Col. James C. Ruehrmund Jr., USAF (Ret.) and Christopher J. Bowie, ARSENAL OF AIRPOWER: USAF Aircraft Inventory 1950-2009, A Mitchell Institute Study, November 2010, available at https://higherlogicdownload.s3.amazonaws.com/AFA/6379b747-7730-4f82-9b45-a1c80d6c8fdb/UploadedImages/Mitchell%20Publications/Arsenal%20of%20Airpower.pdf (accessed on September 27, 2018).

I keep hearing that although Trump is a scoundrel or worse, at least he’s presiding over a great economy.

As White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow recently put it, “The single biggest story this year is an economic boom that is durable and lasting.”

Really? Look closely at the living standards of most Americans, and you get a very different picture.

Yes, the stock market has boomed since Trump became president. But it’s looking increasingly wobbly as Trump’s trade wars take a toll.

Over 80 percent of the stock market is owned by the richest 10 percent of Americans anyway, so most Americans never got much out of Trump’s market boom to begin with.

The trade wars are about to take a toll on ordinary workers. Trump’s steel tariffs have cost Ford $1 billion so far, for example, forcing the automaker to plan mass layoffs.

What about economic growth? Data from the Commerce Department shows the economy at full speed, 4.2 percent growth for the second quarter.

But very little of that growth is trickling down to average Americans. Adjusted for inflation, hourly wages aren’t much higher now than they were forty years ago.

Trump slashed taxes on the wealthy and promised everyone else a $4,000 wage boost. But the boost never happened. That’s a big reason why Republicans aren’t campaigning on their tax cut, which is just about their only legislative accomplishment.

Trump and congressional Republicans refuse to raise the minimum wage, stuck at $7.25 an hour. Trump’s Labor Department is also repealing a rule that increased the number of workers entitled to time-and-a-half for overtime.

Yes, unemployment is down to 3.7 percent. But jobs are less secure than ever. Contract workers – who aren’t eligible for family or medical leave, unemployment insurance, the minimum wage, or worker’s compensation – are now doing one out of every five jobs in America.

Trump’s Labor Department has invited more companies to reclassify employees as contract workers. Its new rule undoes the California Supreme Court’s recent decision requiring that most workers be presumed employees unless proven otherwise. (Given California’s size, that decision had nationwide effect.)

Meanwhile, housing costs are skyrocketing, with Americans now paying a third or more of their paychecks in rent or mortgages.

Trump’s response? Drastic cuts in low-income housing. His Secretary of Housing and Urban Development also wants to triple the rent paid by poor households in subsidized housing.

Healthcare costs continues to rise faster than inflation. Trump’s response? Undermine the Affordable Care Act. Over the past two years, some 4 million people have lost healthcare coverage, according to a survey by the Commonwealth Fund.

Pharmaceutical costs are also out of control. Trump’s response? Allow the biggest pharmacist, CVS, to merge with the one of the biggest health insurers, Aetna – creating a behemoth with the power to raise prices even further.

The cost of college continues to soar. Trump’s response? Make it easier for for-profit colleges to defraud students. His Secretary of Education, Betsy DeVos, is eliminating regulations that had required for-profit colleges to prove they provide gainful employment to the students they enroll.

Commuting to and from work is becoming harder, as roads and bridges become more congested, and subways and trains older and less reliable. Trump’s response? Nothing. Although he promised to spend $1.5 trillion to repair America’s crumbling infrastructure, his $1.5 trillion tax cut for big corporations and the wealthy used up the money.

Climate change is undermining the standard of living of ordinary Americans, as more are hit with floods, mudslides, tornados, draughts, and wildfires. Even those who have so far avoided direct hits will be paying more for insurance – or having a harder time getting it. People living on flood plains, or in trailers, or without home insurance, are paying the highest price.

Trump’s response? Allow more carbon into the atmosphere and make climate change even worse.

Too often, discussions about “the economy” focus on overall statistics about growth, the stock market, and unemployment.

But most Americans don’t live in that economy. They live in a personal economy that has more to do with wages, job security, commutes to and from work, and the costs of housing, healthcare, drugs, education, and home insurance.

These are the things that hit closest home. They comprise the typical American’s standard of living.

Instead of an “economic boom,” most Americans are experiencing declines in all these dimensions of their lives.

Trump isn’t solely responsible. Some of these trends predated his presidency. But he hasn’t done anything to reverse them.

If anything, he’s made them far worse.

Eyewitnesses report that a large Russian military column was seen in Daghestan near the Chechen border, with some suggesting that this is the first step in a crackdown on Ingush protests, now in their 11^th day, and others that it is a show of force by those in Moscow who want to remind Chechnya’s Ramzan Kadyrov where power in the region lies.

A film clip that purports to show the armored column is to be found at facebook.com/groups/418134964913502/?multi_permalinks=1996555297071453%2C1996456907081292%2C1996257730434543&notif_id=1539603288018100&notif_t=group_activity; cf. rusmonitor.com/na-kavkaze-chto-to-nachinaetsya-ogromnaya-kolonna-voennykh-dvizhetsya-v-storonu-ingushetii.html).

Israeli analyst Avraam Shmulyevich says the purpose of the column is unclear but the equipment on view is more appropriate for military action than crowd control and that consequently this Russian move may be designed to send a signal to Chechnya just as Moscow did in 2014 with Tatarstan after the Crimean Anschluss (rusmonitor.com/avraam-shmulevich-o-konflikte-v-ingushetii-kreml-podzhigaet-kavkaz-chtoby-sprovocirovat-stolknoveniya.html).

That was the most dramatic but hardly the only development in the Ingush crisis over the last 24 hours. Among the others:

• Ruslan Gorevoy, a prominent Moscow commentator, floated the idea that Moscow should oversee the reunification of Ingushetia and Chechnya – they had been one republic before 1991 – both to end the controversy about borders between them, to prevent the conflict from growing and to restart the regional amalgamation campaign (ru/chechnyu-s-ingushetiej-prinuditelno-obedinyat-chtoby-izbezhat-bolshoj-raspri).

• Oleg Kozlovsky, a representative of Amnesty International in Magas, was kidnapped by masked men who identified themselves as employees of the republic security services, according to people who saw the action. Amnesty officials called for his immediate release and for those responsible to be brought to justice (ru/news/5BC460E13FCA8.html).

• The Ingush events are beginning to attract more attention in the mainstream Moscow media, although not yet on television. today offered a long and detailed discussion of the conflict and why it has persisted so Kommersant long (ru/doc/3771161).

• The organizing committee of the Ingush protest has selected the delegation that will meet with Aleksandr Matovnikov, presidential plenipotentiary for the North Caucasus federal district tomorrow (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/326282/).

• Demonstrations and expressions of support for the Ingush protests are coming in from across the North Caucasus, from Georgia and even from the Russian city of Volgograd, an indication that the Kremlin’s efforts to control information about the protest in Magas are failing (media/special/obzory/politicheskiy_krizis_v_ingushetii_razrastaetsya/).

• The protests again today reiterated that they will not end their protests until the border accord is annulled. That means that as of Wednesday, they will be putting Yevkurov in a difficult position as his government has given permission for demonstrations only through that day (com/a/29543924.html).

• Law enforcement agencies said today that the demonstrations had been completely law abiding and that there had not been a single detention or warning of an administrative violation so far (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/326282/).

• The demonstrators got their cell phone networks back – shortly after Yunus-Bek Yevkurov had his telephone call with Vladimir Putin who told him to speak with the protesters rather than disperse them by force (com/2018-10-15/v_ingushetii_zarabotal_mobilnyy_internet_posle_intervyu_evkurova_ehu_moskvy).

As we mark the 10th anniversary of the peak of the financial crisis, news outlets continue to feature pieces how another one, possibly worse, is just around the corner. This mostly shows that the folks who control these outlets learned absolutely nothing from the last crisis. As I have pointed out endlessly, the story was the collapse of the housing bubble that had been driving the economy. The financial crisis was an entertaining sideshow.

There is one story in the coming crisis picture that features prominently — the corporate debt burden, as discussed here. (This Bloomberg piece is actually well-reasoned.) The basic story is a simple one: corporate debt has risen rapidly in the recovery. This is true both in absolute terms, but even in relation to corporate profits.

The question is whether this is anything that should worry us. My answer is “no.”

The key point is that we should be looking at debt service burdens, not debt, relative to after-tax corporate profits. This ratio was was 23.1 percent in 2017, before Congress approved a big corporate tax cut. By comparison, the ratio stood at more than 25 percent in the boom years of the late 1990s, not a time when people generally expressed much concern over corporate debt levels.

It is true that the burden can rise if interest rates continue to go up, but this would be a very gradual process. The vast majority of corporate debt is long-term. In fact, many companies took on large amounts of debt precisely because it was so cheap, in some cases issuing billions of dollars worth of 30-year or even 50-year bonds. These companies will not be affected by a rise in interest rates any time soon.

But clearly, there are some companies that did get in over their heads with debt. There are two points to be made here.

First, with the stock market at extraordinarily high levels (this is true even with the selloff of the last two days), companies can still raise a large amount of capital by issuing new shares. If their debt burden poses serious risks to the company, presumably they will go this route. In many cases, companies will have subsidiaries, land, or other assets that they can use to raise money if it is needed to pay off its debt.

Second, some companies will undoubtedly face financial distress and need relief from creditors, either through renegotiating debt or bankruptcy. The question here is, so what? Companies are always going bankrupt. Our laws are designed to allow companies to continue to operate through a bankruptcy. Creditors are forced to take a loss on their loans, the size of which will depend both on the financial shape of the company and where they stand in line as a creditor.

So let’s say that a substantial portion of the $1.3 trillion of speculative debt cited in the Bloomberg piece faces a credit downgrade, with some of it going into default. This means that some investors lose money. We have a $20 trillion economy. If the losses amounted to 40 percent of these bonds (which would be huge), that still only amounts to $520 billion, or 2.6 percent of GDP. The impact of this loss would barely be felt in the economy as a whole.

In short, even in the really bad story here, we are not talking a major financial crisis or a second Great Depression. Some investors get hit as a result of making some bad picks. This may be a serious problem for them, but it’s not the sort of thing the rest of us need to worry about.

This column originally appeared on Dean Baker’s blog, Beat the Press.

By Felipe Villamor

An all-out war in the South China Sea is unlikely at this stage even though military giants the United States and China appear to be positioning themselves aggressively in the disputed waters of the maritime region, analysts said.

The Philippines entered the fray last week when Manila assured Beijing that it would not take part in maritime exercises in the sea being purportedly planned by the U.S., in deference to Chinese leader Xi Jinping who is scheduled to visit the country next month. Washington, however, has officially denied that such plans were in the offing, as first reported by American news channel CNN two weeks ago.

Both the U.S. and China are merely posturing, according to Jay Batongbacal, director of the Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea at the University of the Philippines.

“I do not think we are moving toward war,” Batongbacal told BenarNews. “Despite the rhetoric, it is not in either country’s interest to engage in a full-blown war with each other.”

While the U.S. had not “restrained” itself from armed conflict with other states such as Afghanistan, Iraq or Panama, Washington may choose to tread carefully vis-à-vis China, which can possibly match it in “nuclear capability” and “war fighting capability,” he said.

And directly challenging Beijing over the South China Sea remains unpopular among members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which recently moved toward a collective response of appeasement.

“A serious armed conflict is also not in the interest of any one of the countries in the region despite their issues with China,” Batongbacal said.

“ASEAN as a whole does not want to become a battleground for the super powers, and likely prefers a more moderate, mediatory role between the two competing powers.”

The Russian factor

Overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea have long been a source of tension in the region, pitting China against rival Taiwan and ASEAN states Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

This had led to violence in the past, and the mineral-rich sea remains a constant focus of regional tensions. Recently, the Southeast Asian bloc and China agreed to a draft of “code of conduct” to govern actions in the region, which many considered a positive development.

But China has continued with its militarization efforts in the sea, expanding islands that it claims and installing anti-aircraft weapons. These developments have worried the U.S., which responded recently by conducting freedom of navigation flights and sailing in the South China Sea.

In addition, China’s friendship with Russia, another super power that rivals the U.S., is seen as complicating matters, even though Moscow at this stage would not directly engage in a conflict far from its sphere of influence, analysts said.

Russia remains focused on Europe and former Soviet states, and its interests lie farther westward than in Southeast Asia, which is less geopolitically important to Moscow, they said.

“Russia has its own issues with the U.S., which it chooses to address on its own and without earnest need for Chinese collaboration or coordination,” Batongbacal said, adding that Moscow, however, would not mind “taking positions or actions that are against the U.S.”

“Russia will look out for its interests; if China happens to benefit from that, well and good; but Russia does not have to go out of its way to look out for China’s interests also,” he said.

‘Revanchist behavior’

Meanwhile, Malaysian leader Mahathir Mohamad, like Philippine counterpart Rodrigo Duterte, has been careful about stoking tensions in the sea, warning in a recent interview that an agitated China could present more problems for Southeast Asia, which relies heavily on the South China Sea for trade and shipping.

Irritating China could escalate tensions and lead to war, the Malaysian prime minister told BBC News.

According to Richard Javad Heydarian, a political science professor at De La Salle University in Manila, Mahathir has taken the lead as ASEAN’s elder statesman with regard to tensions in the South China Sea.

And the 93-year-old leader has used that authority to point out Beijing’s “revanchist behavior” at the expense of smaller countries like the Philippines while, at the same time, advocating for peace with calls for demilitarization and a cessation of general hostilities.

“This is consistent with his non-aligned foreign policy outlook and long-time commitment to a dialogue-based resolution of disputes,” Heydarian said.

“What’s new, however, is his forthright criticism of Chinese expansionism, whether through predatory infrastructure deals or reclamation activities in contested waters,” he added.

Heydarian said Russia enjoyed a “strategic” relationship with China, having conducted joint exercises in the past, but Moscow would likely not gamble away its warm relations with other claimant countries like the Philippines and Vietnam, for example.

“In fact Russia has been a major source of armaments for Vietnam, including advanced submarines, which are being used to deter Chinese intrusion into Vietnamese waters in the South China Sea,” Heydarian said.

As Moscow slowly pivots as well to Asia, it remains conscious of carving out a role for itself in the region, whether militarily or commercially, Heydarian said.

Chinese President Xi Jinping was scheduled to visit the Philippines in November, in what the Duterte administration here has sold as an alternative to long-standing U.S. relations.

Duterte was expected to lay out the red carpet for his Chinese counterpart, during a visit which comes as both countries are in the final stages of negotiating a joint exploration-sharing deal in the South China Sea.

The deal could likely cover the Reed Bank, also called Recto Bank, in the South China Sea that is believed rich in mineral deposits. The area lies within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, which was affirmed by an arbitration court in 2016, although China has continued to contest its ownership.

Xi’s upcoming visit is aimed at “further cementing” bilateral relations, the Philippine government has said.

By John Zaw

The United Wa State Army (UWSA) has forcibly recruited 41 male and female students in Shan State near Myanmar’s border with China, according to ethnic-Lahu Baptist leaders.

Reverend Lazarus, general secretary of the Lahu Baptist Convention in Kyaing Tong, said 92 Lahu Christians were released recently after signing a pledge that they would only worship privately at home, not in churches.

However, the students were made to join the militia that grew out of the former Communist Party of what was previously called Burma.

“We heard the students who were studying at a Bible school were assigned to different areas after they were forcibly recruited into the Wa army,” Rev. Lazarus told ucanews.com.

He pledged to work for their release and called on the UWSA to set them free.

Rev. Lazarus added that Baptist leaders intended to meet with Lahu political parties and cultural associations to discuss the situation in the Wa hills region where the abductions and detentions had occurred.

Some 52 Lahu Baptist churches remained sealed-off and five had been destroyed.

Rev. Lazarus added that he had no idea of how long the crackdown would last.

He said the lack of religious freedom was the most dire since missionary work started several decades ago, even though there had been some past problems, and that the situation was continuing to deteriorate.

Five Catholic nuns and six lay teachers were expelled from the region by the UWSA as part of a campaign that began Sept. 13 in which the militant group has uprooted so-called “unauthorized” churches.

The UWSA announced that all churches in the region built after 1992 were being deemed to have been illegally constructed.

Only churches built between 1989 and 1992 were being accepted.

The UWSA has banned the construction of new churches and requires that priests and workers in churches be locals, not outsiders.

It has also banned religious teaching in schools in the Wa region, while UWSA functionaries have been forbidden from being members of any religious organization.

The UWSA leadership has also pledged to punish local administration cadres if they support missionary activities.

The Wa region is home to ethnic groups including the Wa, Kachin, Ta’ang, Lahu, Lisu, Kokang and Shan who observe the faiths of Christianity, Buddhism, animism, spirit worship and Islam.

The UWSA has close connections to the communist government of China that has significant economic interests and ambitions in the region. Beijing has long suspected Protestant groups of haboring United-States affiliated spies.

Christians comprise around 30 percent of the estimated 450,000 ethnic Wa.

The 30,000-strong UWSA — Myanmar’s largest ethnic army — stands accused of being one of the largest drug-trafficking groups in Southeast Asia.