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Iran To Launch New Cloud Seeding Project

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The director of Iran’s National Cloud Seeding Research Center said a new cloud seeding project will begin in more than 10 provinces using planes, drones and ground-based generators.

In comments on Saturday, Farid Golkar said his organization works in cooperation with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force to carry out cloud seeding projects across the country.

The operations will be performed with planes in the provinces of Yazd, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Kohgiluye and Boyer-Ahmad, Isfahan, Khuzestan, Kerman and Fars, he added, saying drones will be flown for cloud seeding in the provinces of South Khorasan, East Azarbaijan and West Azarbaijan.

If financed, the project will include ground-based generators in the western province of Kermanshah, Golkar noted.

In January, IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh voiced readiness to help the Energy Ministry to carry out cloud seeding operations, saying his forces were at the Iranian nation’s service and would mobilize all equipment to help the administration.

It came after frequent droughts and low rainfall in Iran in last autumn forced the administration to opt for cloud seeding in the hope of squeezing more precipitation out of the atmosphere.

Cloud seeding originated in the US in the 1940s. The method generally used in the winter involves ground-based generators set at high elevations that are literally fired up to release plumes containing silver iodide crystals into storm clouds. When water vapor or droplets attach to the silver iodide crystal, latent heat is also released, and it increases cloud size and the duration of storms.

Global warming has forced many arid and semi-arid areas around the world, including Iran, to suffer from drought.


Macedonia PM Backs Amnesty Deal ‘In Principle’

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By Sinisa Jakov Marusic

Macedonia’s Prime Minister on Friday said he agreed ‘in principle’ with the opposition on a draft law offering an amnesty or pardon to some of those involved in last year’s rampage in parliament.

Macedonian Prime Minister Zoran Zaev said on Friday that his government was willing to consider an amnesty for those involved in last year’s attack on parliament, after meeting the newly formed parliament commission on reconciliation – which is tasked with proposing steps for national reconciliation after years of political crisis.

Zaev said that his government wanted an amnesty law prepared, but noted that a pardon or amnesty would only apply to those who had not directly used violence during the April 2017 rampage.

“Let’s leave the legal teams to do the next steps now. We showed our political will today,” Zaev said, adding that the legal and technical details of the offer would be left for a later date.

Despite criticism from political, judicial and human rights experts that such a step would mean interfering with the work of the judiciary – a practice that the new government vowed to end when it took power in May last year – Zaev maintained that it would not interfere with the work of the courts.

“There are red lines that must not be crossed, whatever our will and wishes [for a partial amnesty]”, Zaev said, repeating that he greatly valued the maintenance of judicial independence as an “imperative” for the country’s Euro-Atlantic integration hopes.

The reconciliation committee was formed right after the start of still ongoing procedures for constitutional changes, in October, which form part of the historic agreement with Greece on the country’s name.

The body was formed on the initiative of the eight opposition MPs , seven of whom are now excluded from VMRO DPNNE, who provided key support for the start of the parliamentary procedure on the Greek deal – but conditioned their further support on progress in reconciliation that would include an amnesty.

Three of the eight opposition MPs are now on trial for involvement in the attack on parliament.

Critics have accused Zaev of trading the rule of law for opposition votes in order to reach the political goal of implementing the agreement with Greece, which would then unlock Macedonia’s stalled Euro-Atlantic integration process.

“I am willing to pay the political price,” Zaev has responded on several occasion during the past month.

The draft is not being prepared by the leadership of the opposition VMRO DPMNE party, but only with MPs expelled from the party because they supported the Greek agreement.

On Monday, parliament rejected VMRO DPMNE’s proposal for a full amnesty for all participants in the rampage.

Members of and sympathizers with the former ruling and now opposition VMRO DPMNE party had stormed the parliament in an unsuccessful attempt to prevent the new majority from electing a new speaker and then forming a new government under Zaev.

During the violence, some 100 people, including Zaev, other opposition MPs and journalists, were injured, some of them severely.

Some 30 people, including VMRO DPMNE MPs who are accused of helping the crowd to enter the parliament building, now stand trial for “terrorist endangerment” of the country’s security.

Journey Into Obsolescence: The Adani Carmichael Project – OpEd

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The Carmichael mine being pursued in the Galilee Basin in Central Queensland is a dinosaur before its creation. On paper, it is hefty – to be some five times the size of Sydney harbour, the largest in Australia and one of the largest on the planet. Six open cut and five underground mines covering some 30 kilometres are proposed, a gargantuan epic. The coal itself would be transported through the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park and World Heritage Area, and would feature a rail line subsidised by the money of Australian taxpayers.

Even before the initial steps are taken, its realisation is doomed to obsolescent indulgence and environmental wearing. It has been endorsed by a bribed political class best represented by Liberal senator Matt Canavan, who sees Adani through tinted glasses as a “little Aussie batter”; it is run by an unelected plutocratic one. This venture has seen Australian politicians, protoplasmic and spineless, do deals with a company run by a billionaire in a way that sneers at democracy and mocks the common citizenry.

The Adani group, run by its persistent Chairman Gautam Adani, has worked out what political figures want to hear and how far it can go, even in the face of mounting opposition. His closeness to the halls of power has been noted: influential be he who has the ear of the Indian Prime Minister, Nahendra Modi.

How divisive the Carmichael project is between Australia’s morally flexible politicians and a growing body of disaffected citizenry can be gathered from the open letter to the Adani Group from some 90 notable Australians that was submitted in the first part of last year. The list was impressively eclectic: authors such as Richard Flanagan and Tim Winton; investment banker Mark Burrows; and former Australian test cricket captains Ian and Greg Chappell. (“The thought,” Ian Chappell ruefully, “that this could affect the relationship, hopefully that’ll get through.”)

The text of the note was simple enough. “We are writing to respectfully ask you to abandon the Adani Group’s proposal in Queensland’s Galilee Basin… Pollution from burning coal was the single biggest driver of global warming, threatening life in Australia, India and all over the world.”

That same year, the British medical journal The Lancet deemed the Adani mine project a “public health disaster” though Australian authorities remain indifferent to recommendations that independent health assessments be conducted on the impact of the mine. In very tangible ways, air pollution arising from the burning of coal is a global killer. Australia’s menacing own contribution to this casualty list comes in at around three thousand a year; in India, the list, according to a 2013 study by the Mumbai-based Conservation Action Trust, is an eye-popping 115,000. “I didn’t expect the mortality figures per year,” remarked Debi Goenka, executive trustee of the Conservation Action Trust, “to be so high.”

The trends in energy generation and resources are against fossil fuels, and even the banks have heeded this, refusing to supply a credit line to the company. But Adani knows a gullible audience when he sees one. Like a sadhu aware of a westerner’s amenability to mysticism, the chairman and his worthies say the rights things, and encourage the appropriate response from the ruling classes they are wooing. The company feeds them the fodder and rose water they wish to hear, and massages them into appreciative stances. The campaign by the Indian company has been so comprehensive as to include decision makers from every level of government that might be connected with the mine.

Adani, not to be deterred by delays of some six years, has suggested that it will pursue a different model, though this remains vague. Extravagance is being reined in, supposedly trimmed and slimmed: targets will be cut by three-quarters, and the company has now promised to finance the project itself. “We will now,” claimed Adani Mining CEO Lucas Dow this week, “be developing a smaller open-cut mine comparable to many other Queensland coal mines and will ramp up production over time.”

Nothing this company says should ever be taken at face value. Exaggeration and myth making is central to its platform. Slyly, the company’s Australian operation is also given a deceptive wrapping; a visit to the company’s website will see information on Adani’s efforts to “become the leading supplier of renewable energy in Australia.”

Dow has become a missionary of sorts, repeatedly telling Queenslanders that the project can only mean jobs, and more jobs. Astrological projections more in league with tarot card reading are used. Last November, Dow, in a media statement, was brimming with optimism over those “indirect jobs” that would be created in Rockhampton, Townsville, Mackay and the Isaac region. “Economic modelling, such as that used by the Queensland Resources Council in its annual resources industry economic impact report, show that each direct job in the industry in Queensland supports another four and a half jobs in related industries and businesses, therefore we can expect to see more than 7,000 jobs created by the initial ramp up of the Carmichael project.”

Not merely does the Carmichael mine smack of a crude obsolescence before the first lumps of coal are mined; it is bound to take a wrecking ball to any emissions reduction strategy Australia might intend pursuing. (Matters are already half-hearted as they are in Canberra, poisoned by a fractious energy lobby and ill-gotten gains stakeholders.) Professor Andrew Stock of the Climate Council has explained that once coal begins being burned, Australia’s “total emissions” are set to double, nothing less than an act of “environmental vandalism”. Work on the mine will also contribute to such despoliation: the clearing of 20,200 hectares of land will add to the climate chance quotient; the Great Artesian Basin’s groundwater system will also be affected.

Another graphic projection is also being suggested. For the duration of its projected 60 year lifespan, as epidemiologist Fiona Stanley reminds us, Adani’s venture will produce as much carbon as all of Australia’s current coal fired power stations combined. All this, even as the Indian state promises to phase out thermal coal imports, rendering the Adani coal project a white, if vandalising elephant. The only difference now is that the elephant proposed is somewhat smaller in scale and size.

George H.W. Bush: The Man And His Legacy – OpEd

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Former U.S. President George Herbert Walker Bush died late Friday on Nov. 30, 2018 in his home in Houston. He was 94. He was suffering from a form of Parkinson’s disease. His wife of more than 70 years, Barbara Bush, died in April 2018. [They were the longest-married presidential couple in U.S. history.]

Sr. Bush, as he is also fondly remembered here in the USA, was an accomplished man in so many ways. The son of a senator and father of a president (the 43rd President George W. Bush), H.W. Bush was the man with one of the most impressive resumes. He was born June 12, 1924, in Milton, Massachusetts, into the New England elite, a world of prep schools, mansions and servants seemingly untouched by the Great Depression. His father, Prescott Bush, the son of an Ohio steel magnate, made his fortune as an investment banker and later served 10 years as a senator from Connecticut.

After being a World War II hero, George Bush rose through the political ranks: from congressman (1966-70) to U.N. ambassador (1971), Republican Party chairman (1972) to envoy to China (1973-76), CIA director (1976) to two-term vice president (1981-89) under the hugely popular Ronald Reagan to ultimately become the 41st president of the USA in 1989. The 1991 Gulf War with the coalition victory over Iraq in Kuwait that to many Americans helped purge the ghosts of Vietnam stoked his popularity, which then plummeted in the throes of a weak economy. Like President Jimmy Carter before him, he was a one-time president. He failed in his reelection bid against a little-known Democratic governor from Arkansas, Bill Clinton, in 1992. (Businessman H. Ross Perot took almost 19 percent of the vote as an independent candidate.)

Later, Sr. Bush would acknowledge that as a poor communicator he had trouble articulating “the vision thing,” and that he was haunted by his decision to break a stern, solemn vow he made to voters: “Read my lips. No new taxes.” Voters penalized him severely for breaking that promise. They considered out of touch with reality.

Bill Clinton’s popular campaign had reverberated around the slogan ‘It’s economy, stupid!’ Bush failed to rein in the deficit, which had tripled to $3 trillion under Reagan and galloped ahead by as much as $300 billion a year under Bush, who put his finger on it in his inauguration speech: “We have more will than wallet.”

Still, Mr. Bush lived to see his son, George W., twice elected to the presidency — only the second father-and-son chief executives, following John Adams and John Quincy Adams, in American history.

Once out of office, the elder Bush was content to remain on the sidelines. His popularity rebounded with the growth of his reputation as a fundamentally decent and well-meaning leader who was a steadfast humanitarian. Elected officials and celebrities of both parties publicly expressed their fondness. He backed Clinton on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which had its genesis during his own presidency (now opposed by Trump). He visited the Middle East, where he was rewarded for his defense of Kuwait. He later teamed with Clinton to raise tens of millions of dollars for victims of a 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean and Hurricane Katrina, which swamped New Orleans and the Gulf Coast in 2005.

Like many powerful rulers, the 41st president, however, was a mass murderer whose ‘liberating’ forces killed nearly half a million Iraqis – military and civilians – when such could surely have been avoided. To his credit, however, after liberating Kuwait, he rejected suggestions that the U.S. carry the offensive to Baghdad, choosing to end the hostilities a mere 100 hours after the start of the ground war. But the decisive military defeat did not lead to the downfall of Saddam Hossein, as many in the administration had hoped.

“I miscalculated,” acknowledged Bush. His legacy was dogged for years by doubts about the decision not to remove Saddam Hussein. The Iraqi leader was eventually ousted in 2003, in the war led by Bush’s son that was followed by a long, bloody insurgency in a war that taxed American resources and patience, and still ongoing, fueling further wars in the entire region.

According to Jon Meacham, his biographer, the elder Mr. Bush believed that his son George W’s administration had been harmed by a “hard line” atmosphere that pushed an aggressive and ultimately self-destructive use of force around the world, and he placed the blame for that on Dick Cheney, his son’s vice president, and Donald H. Rumsfeld, his son’s secretary of defense.

George H.W. Bush underscored the theme of duty in accepting his party’s nomination for the presidency in 1988 in New Orleans. “I am a man who sees life in terms of missions — missions defined and missions completed,” he told Republican delegates in the Louisiana Superdome in 1988. He rode into office pledging to make the United States a “kinder, gentler” nation (in contrast to Trump’s pledge of making ‘America Great Again’) and calling on Americans to volunteer their time for good causes — an effort he said would create “a thousand points of light.”

Mr. Bush sought to safeguard the environment and signed the first improvements to the Clean Air Act in more than a decade. It was activism with a Republican cast, allowing polluters to buy others’ clean-air credits and giving industry flexibility on how to meet tougher goals on smog. He also signed the landmark Americans with Disabilities Act to ban workplace discrimination against people with disabilities and require improved access to public places and transportation.

Bush’s true interests lay elsewhere, outside the realm of domestic politics. He operated at times like a one-man State Department, on the phone at dawn with his peers — Mikhail Gorbachev of the Soviet Union, Francois Mitterrand of France, Germany’s Helmut Kohl.

His greatest legacy is that he ended the cold war in a peaceful way. Communism began to crumble on his watch, with the Berlin Wall coming down (1989), the Warsaw Pact disintegrating and the Soviet satellites falling out of orbit. He seized leadership of the NATO alliance with a bold and ultimately successful proposal for deep troop and tank cuts in Europe. Huge crowds cheered him on a triumphal tour through Poland and Hungary.

Bush’s invasion of Panama in December 1989 was a military precursor of the Gulf War: a quick operation with a resoundingly superior American force. In Panama, the troops seized dictator Manuel Noriega and brought him back to the United States in chains to stand trial on drug-trafficking charges.

He took presidential office with the humility that was his hallmark. “Some see leadership as high drama, and the sound of trumpets calling, and sometimes it is that,” he said at his inauguration. “But I see history as a book with many pages, and each day we fill a page with acts of hopefulness and meaning. The new breeze blows, a page turns, the story unfolds.”

He was an avid outdoorsman who took Theodore Roosevelt as a model. Bush approached old age with gusto, celebrating his 75th and 80th birthdays by skydiving over College Station, Texas, the home of his presidential library. He did it again on his 85th birthday in 2009, parachuting near his oceanfront home in Kennebunkport, Maine. He used his presidential library at Texas A&M University as a base for keeping active in civic life.

He became the patriarch of one of the nation’s most prominent political families. In addition to George W. becoming president, another son, Jeb, was elected Florida governor in 1998 and made an unsuccessful run against Trump for the GOP presidential nomination in 2016.

The 43rd president issued a statement Friday following his father’s death, saying the elder Bush “was a man of the highest character.” He may be partially factual given that the elder Bush was lately accused of groping women. Mr. Bush’s office said the gestures, he patted them on the rear, were meant in a good-natured matter, but said: “to anyone he has offended, President Bush apologizes most sincerely.”

Obviously, like most famous people, George H.W. Bush’s life will be read and reviewed by historians. He had his ups and downs, successes and failures, but most Americans will remember him as an able, prudent, restrained and seasoned leader.

He was also a great statesman. Before he left the White House, he left a note for his successor Bill Clinton in the Oval Office on his Inauguration Day in 1993. The note is a great reminder of what a true statesman he was.

Dear Bill,

When I walked into this office just now I felt the same sense of wonder and respect that I felt four years ago. I know you will feel that, too.

I wish you great happiness here. I never felt the loneliness some Presidents have described.
There will be very tough times, made even more difficult by criticism you may not think is fair. I’m not a very good one to give advice; but just don’t let the critics discourage you or push you off course.

You will be our President when you read this note. I wish you well. I wish your family well.

Your success now is our country’s success. I am rooting hard for you.

Good luck—

George

James A. Baker III was the former secretary of state and Mr. Bush’s closest adviser for nearly 50 years. He said in an interview in 2013, “George H. W. Bush was the best one-term president the country has ever had, and one of the most underrated presidents of all time.” “I think history is going to treat him very well.”

Only time would either prove or disprove James Baker. One thing for sure though: America has lost an authentic statesman when they need such individuals more than ever before.

Final Declaration At G20 Stresses Irreversibility Of Paris Agreement

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Gathered in Buenos Aires this Saturday (Dec. 1), G20 leaders from the world’s biggest economies approved the final declaration in which they highlight the irreversibility of the Paris Agreement, signed by a number of nations committed to the adoption of measures to mitigate the impact of global warming. The terms of the deal have been met with resistance from leaders in countries like the US, China, and India.

Food

In the opinion of the leaders at the event, the common challenges focus on tackling food security—hence the determination to stimulate rural areas, promote the sustainable handling of soils, water, and rivers with the support of small producers. “It’s crucial to making the world free of hunger and all forms of malnutrition.”

However, the text is clear in considering collaboration between public and private agencies key. The authorities have pledged to boost the efforts to engage both the private sector and the scientific community.

Equality

The declaration reports the G20 will publish a document outlining the plans for the development of the first childhood among girls. The text also mentions the efforts towards seeking gender equality as key for economic growth as well as fair and sustainable development.

The document mentions that the gender gap in the labor market should be brought to 25 percent by 2025. “We will continue to promote initiatives aimed at bringing an end to all forms of discrimination against women and girls, as well as gender-based violence. We commit to the promotion of economic empowerment of women.”

Health

The declaration underscores the need to support the actions of the World Health Organization (WHO) in devising the measures in order to meet the goals set for 2030, like quality health care systems which are safe and efficient.

The goals include strategies to improve sanitation systems, the end of HIV/AIDS contamination and other diseases, like tuberculosis and malaria.

Refugees

The document also names the common concern with “major movements by refugees” and the need to implement “common actions” in order to address the ingrained causes behind displacement and tackle increasing humanitarian needs. The text, however, does not list possible measures or warn about instances of abuse.

The declaration is put together at a moment in which the US tighten up its anti-immigration laws, and Europe closes its doors to immigrants attempting to escape hunger and political and ethnic persecution. In Brazil and South America, the attention is directed towards Venezuelans and Central Americans seeking refuge in neighboring countries.

Climate

Days before the Conference on Climate Change (COP24) in Poland, leaders warned about the impact of the 1.5ºC global warming and the need to endorse the Paris Agreement—a series of commitments made by a number of countries in a bid to mitigate the effects of global warming.

“The signatories of the Paris Agreement, who adhered to the Hamburg Action Plan, reaffirmed that the Paris Agreement is irreversible and committed to fully implement it, reflecting common but special responsibilities, with their respective capacities, in light of the different circumstances facing each country. We will continue to tackle climate change, promoting sustainable development and economic growth.”

Sources of energy

The document also highlights the “crucial role of energy” in helping building a shared future. However, the declaration argues that the search for alternate sources of energy should be based on “security, sustainability, resilience, efficiency, accessibility, and stability.”

Communist China Facilitating World Buddhist Forum Is Ironic And Deceitful – OpEd

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It is ironical that communist Government of China, which views religion as potentially destabilizing and contradictory to communist philosophy, has facilitated the organization of Fifth World Buddhist Forum in the city of Putian in east China’s Fujian province in October,2018.

The forum is supposed to be Jointly proposed by Buddhist communities in Chinese mainland, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao in 2005 and it is claimed that the World Buddhist Forum was established as a platform for Buddhists to communicate and cooperate. It was said that the objective of the Fifth World Buddhist Forum was to promote positive roles of religious people in economic and social development, the Belt and Road Initiative and the building of a community with a shared future for mankind.

It is surprising and even shocking that around 800 people including Chinese and overseas Buddhists were reported to have participated in the so called World Buddhist Forum facilitated by Chinese government, without realizing that Government of China is committed to negation of established religious philosophies and has no particular commitment to the philosophy and cause of Buddhism,

The fact is that the approach and policy of the communist government of China is oriented towards denial of individual freedom and liberty for Chinese citizens to follow religion of their choice in variety of ways. The revised communist party disciplinary rules demand that the party members who have religious beliefs should undergo “thought education”.

Freedom of religion in China is provided for in the Constitution of the People’s Republic of China with an important caveat the government protects what it calls “normal religious activity” defined in practice as activities that take place within government sanctioned religious organisations and registered places of worship.

Though China’s five officially sanctioned religious organisations namely Buddhist Association of China, Chinese Taoist Association, Islamic Association of China, Three-Self Patriotic Movement and Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association are afforded a degree of protection, they are subject to restrictions and controls under the State Administration for Religious Affairs. Unregistered religious groups – including house churches, Falun Gong, Tibetan Buddhists, underground Catholics and Uyghur Muslims – face varying degrees of harassment, including imprisonment, torture and forced religious conversion.

Several human rights bodies have criticised such practice as falling short of international standards for the protection of religious freedom.

It is well known that the Chinese government has been suppressing the practice of Islam religion It is reported that around one million Muslims have been held in Chinese internment camps, according to estimates cited by the UN officials. It is further reported that over the course of an indoctrination process lasting several months, muslims were forced to renounce Islam, criticize their own Islamic beliefs and those of fellow inmates and recite Communist Party propaganda songs for hours each day.

Given such ground reality, the communist China with a dictatorial regime is certainly an unfit location for organizing this forum, which is claimed to be a platform for Buddhists to communicate.

One can clearly see that organization of Buddhist forum in China is a clever attempt by Chinese government to give an impression that China is friendly towards Buddhist religion, which is not fact and cover it’s misdeeds in the Buddhist country Tibet.

China has ruthlessly invaded Tibet, a deeply religious Buddhist country, massacred thousands of Buddhists who protested against Chinese invasion and has been occupying the helpless Tibet for several decades now.

The very fact that the government of China refuses to permit any foreigner to visit occupied Tibet clearly highlights the fact that China has lot to conceal with regard to it’s militant administration in Tibet and the freedom suppressed conditions in which Tibetans live. Certainly, any government committed to the cause of non violence and truth, which Buddhism espouses ,cannot behave in such manner. Today, Tibet is an iron curtain as far as Government of China’s Tibetan policy is concerned.

In this connection, one may recall that a bill is before US Senate for passing for the” reciprocal access to Tibet act”, which seeks to ensure the same access to American diplomats and journalists to visit Tibet as the Chinese have to all parts of US.

While India is the birth place of Buddhism and several holy sites for Buddhists are in India, Tibet under the guidance of the revered the Dalai Lama represent the heart and soul of Buddhism, adhering and practicing the concept and philosophy of Buddhism in letter and spirit and setting a Buddhist religious model for the entire world. Chinese government suppressing Tibet virtually amounts to suppressing Buddhism, with the respected the Dalai Lama now forced to escape from the Chinese military and live in exile in India.

Buddhists all the world should introspect about the role of Chinese government in Tibet which resulted in slow suppression of Buddhist culture and practices in Tibet.

It is not clearly known whether the Buddhists around the world have protested adequately against the act of the Chinese government in facilitating the Buddhist forum meeting in China and in the process trying to create a false image that China supports the cause of Buddhism.

BRICS Leaders’ Meeting In Buenos Aires – OpEd

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Due to efficient cooperation between the BRICS members and coordination within international organisations and forums, the strategic partnership has grown stronger and continues to actively develop in the most diverse areas, Russian leader Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with his BRICS colleagues at the G20 summit held in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Putin supported much of what his colleagues have said about the difficult situation in global politics, economy, trade and finance, and noted that such risk factors as an increase in global debt, volatility of stock markets and escalating trade disputes.

“In general, we cannot help noticing that unfair competition often takes the place of fair and equitable intergovernmental dialogue. The nefarious practice of imposing unilateral sanctions and protectionist measures without regard to the UN Charter, WTO rules and other generally accepted legal norms is spreading,” he stressed.

All of these seriously undermines the atmosphere of cooperation on the global stage and leads to declining business ties and loss of trust between participants of economic relations, distorting the very fabric of the global economy, Putin explained further.

The BRICS countries plan to continue working together to create a fair and equitable system of international relations. For this, collective action based on mutual respect and consideration of interests is needed in order to overcome the critical challenges facing the international community.

He noted that the danger posed by international terrorism which is not subsiding and enlist the support of BRICS members in counteracting this global problem.

He suggested BRICS play a more significant role in the global financial system, push for the continuation of the IMF reform and for greater influence in the IMF.

The BRIS members pledged to get committed to sustainable development of agriculture. Russia is a large producer and exporter of agricultural produce, contributing significantly to food security. Over the last 10 years, we supplied over 650,000 tonnes of food and humanitarian aid to more than 110 countries.

It is expected that the bond and national currencies fund of the BRICS countries to become available in 2019, which would allow strengthening financial and investment stability and expanding the interaction of national payment systems.

They pledged to pay special attention to coordinating the BRICS countries’ positions on issues related to energy and climate change.

Russia, as a reliable exporter of energy to many countries and regions in the world, intends to continue to actively participate in harmonising global energy markets jointly with other suppliers and consumers of fuel and to provide global energy security.

A significant contribution to financial stability has been made by the new development bank, which is now supporting 26 projects in BRICS countries with US$6.5 billion in financing.

President Vladimir Putin arrived in Buenos Aires to attend the Group of Twenty summit. Before that, he held an informal meeting with his BRICS counterparts where he congratulated President of South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa, for organising everything during his chairmanship in July 2018 and further promised similar support for President of Brazil, the new chair, for the next summit in 2019.

The leaders of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) nations have agreed to hold their next summit in Brazil in 2019, according to the statement passed after their informal meeting on the sidelines of the Group of Twenty summit in Buenos Aires.

Opportunism And Opportunity In Today’s Morocco – Analysis

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Morocco is in bad shape. It is definitely not faring well, at all. At the surface it is looking fine, beautiful, happy, stable and developing, but underneath it is simmering with rage and hopelessness and the pressure is forming like in a volcano and someday, soon, it will blow its top and spew magma and lava in the open air. In a word, Morocco is similar to Tunisia’s pre-Arab spring uprising.
The youth is marginalized, forgotten and most importantly emasculated by a tribal/patriarchal system of government. Some take to the street or to cyber space to mouth their protest and indignation. Others drown their hopelessness in wine and spirits or drugs, and the rate of addiction to drugs is rising alarmingly.

The helpless periphery feels forgotten by the opportunist center that indulges in making empty premises every time there is an uprising. Rural development is seen as a joke, in so much as each government talks about it but none is implementing it in the field.

The poor or getting poorer and poorer and no relief is in sight, they survive thanks to the extended family solidarity, no more.

Social Differences: New Social Classes’ Structure

After the independence in 1956 and until 1982, there were three social classes in Morocco.

The Poor: made mostly of people living in the periphery; there was a brief respite for these wretched people from 1948 to 1984 when European nations sought unqualified strong hands to rebuild Europe thanks to the American generosity of the Marshall plan. However, since 1984 Europe closed its legal immigration doors and Moroccan periphery people went back to their ancestral poverty and suffering, in total silence and deafening disinterest from the establishment.

The Middle class: after independence the state employed thousands of people as Moroccan civil servants in a political process referred to in French as: “marocanisation de l’administration,” whereby the administration got rid of all French bureaucrats. As such, until the financial crisis of 1982, the state was the sole employer of all graduates from universities and higher institutes. So, this led to the creation of a middle class of thousands of people with a credible buying power. However, in 1982, following the default of Morocco on its international loan payments, the IMF and the World Bank stepped in to clear the financial mess and one of their first sour pills was immediate stoppage of state employment. Following that the Middle class dwindled and by the end of the second millennium it was gone forever. Nevertheless, its disappearance is problematic in so much as it used to serve as a shock absorber between the rich and the poor and the shock now will be, undoubtedly, dangerous for stability.

The Rich: the rich in Morocco are made from the Andalusian elite that came to Morocco in 1492 after the fall of Grenada and the end of the reconquista. They were made of educated Arabs and skilled Jews and they settled in big cities like Tangier, Tetouan, Fès, Rabat, Mogador, (Essaouira), Because of their knowledge and expertise they started businesses and engaged in politics. The Makhzen (traditional and undemocratic form of governance) relied on the Jews for business, finance, external trade and, also, diplomacy and, thus, became Tujjar Sultan (Sultan’s business people) and the Arab for politics and state affairs. In 1970 most of the Jews left for Israel and only 3000 remain in big cities today. The Arabs succeeded in business and formed the business elite of Morocco, mostly in Fes and became the Fassi bourgeoisie, strongly present in the economy and politics. After independence, they moved to Casablanca, the hub of Moroccan economy, where they control such important businesses like: banking, insurance, international trade and industry.

The class of the rich is made of the Andalusians who served faithfully the Makhzen since 1492. They become the Makhzen families, a pool of technocracy from which most governments are still formed today. Because of their wealth they are able to send their offspring to the best universities in the world to prepare them to take key positions in the government in Morocco.

So basically, most important positions are inherited, the only civil servant that came from the periphery to an important governmental position, the Ministry of Interior, to be precise, was Basri, during the reign of Hassan II. He started his career in the police corps and because of his excellent security services, he was picked up by Hassan II to steer the “Mother of Ministries,” i.e. Ministry of the Interior as it was Known, then, by the opposition, when political opposition existed.

Today, besides the very rich and the very poor classes, that are miles apart, the social gap is gigantic and presages future shocks. If one wants to see the huge social differences in the capital city, one must visit the affluent quarters of Hay Riad, Souissi, Dar Salam, etc., on the one hand, and the very poor dwellings in the various favelas of Takaddoum and Hay Nahda in Rabat or El Karia in Salé, etc.,on the other, and this is reduplicated in every Moroccan city, which proves, beyond doubt, that the Moroccan development approach is a total failure, to say the least.

Beznassa

Since 1982, there appeared a new social class that Moroccan refer to as Beznassa (the word is derived from business). The beznassa are classified into two categories:

Mwalin shkara (men of a given capital): They are people who have a small capital that they try to fructify in business through legal or illegal practices. They will act mostly as intermediaries in various trades and make basically easy money using corruption, forged documents, abuse of power, etc. to move forward and make profit. In many ways, they are the shameful face of Moroccan capitalism.

Mwalin l-Ghabra (owners of powder): They are people who made easy money through selling Moroccan hashish to European intermediaries. During the reign of the late Hassan II they were tolerated and some even managed to get elected to parliament by buying votes. At the time, they contributed the equivalent of US 2 billion to the economy, but as a result, of pressure from Europe, the state cracked down on them. These people, however, still exist today and try to launder their money mostly in the building sector.

Indeed, in Tangier, there are big beautiful building referred to, tongue in cheek, in the local idiom, as “‘imarat na’na’” (the high-rises of mint, mint here is a polite term for hashish.) Their major weapon for survival was and still is corruption money in hard or local currency to influential politicians and security forces to allow them to transport their “merchandise” within the country or from Moroccan shores to Europe by go-fast boats.

Spatial differences:

The social differences are aggravated further by spatial discrepancies. During the French Protectorate period 1912-1956, Morocco was divided into two regions:

Useful Morocco (Maroc Utile): Made of plains of arable land used for agriculture and plateaus for mineral ores, such as the Khouribga phosphate plateau. There rich agricultural areas were exploited by French colons and mines by big French companies. These areas were easy to control by the French army and administration.

Useless Morocco (Maroc Inutile): It was made of mountainous areas and arid plateaus inhabited by fierce Amazigh/Berber people. It took the French 24 years to pacify these areas that were of no economic interest to the colonial power, anyway.

This spatial categorization was a continuum to another one that existed during the sultanic era. Prior to the colonization, Morocco, then, was divided into Bled l-Makhzen (area under government control equivalent to Maroc utile) and Bled s-Siba (land of dissidence equivalent to the Maroc Inutile). The Bled s-Siba refused to acknowledge the temporal authority of the sultan, to avoid paying him taxes, but acknowledged his religions mantle as Commander of the Faithful ‘amir mouminine” and conducted Friday prayer sermons in his name.

Sixty years after independence, this categorization is taking another turn, but along almost similar lines:

Morocco of the Golden Triangle

It is a triangle that starts in Tangier/Tetouan and runs all the way to Laayoune, on a north to south axis and from Laayoune to Fes in a south-center axis. Moroccan wealth and power is concentrated in this area where most of the industries and all job opportunities are. The successive governments, since independence, have done practically little to distribute wealth evenly between regions.
The government crafted, in the last decade, the regionalization process, but, actually, it is just in illusion and is far from being some sort of local government power as it is known in the West.

The Morocco of Despair

It is the Maroc Inutile, for sure, where there is no development, no opportunity, but only government bureaucracy that rackets poor people through corruption and abuse of power. The Morocco of Despair is made of Amazigh/Berber areas and arid plateaus. When immigration was possible, people flocked to Europe to make money and sent remittances back home. Still today, the migrants and their offspring send the equivalent of US$ 7 billion, but when they come back home in the summer they find that none of it has been used to develop their areas: no roads, no schools, no hospitals and no industry. The youth, in these regions, slumbers in drugs and toxic substances with no hope of treatment.

Sick of this situation and the government permanent lies of development, the population took to the streets in Alhoceima, in Jerada and in Zagora to shout their despair and the government, after making the usual empty promises of development, cracked down on these hiraks (uprisings) and put their leaders in prison and they are still there.

Cry My Beloved Country

In 2011, when Moroccans took to the street, in the aftermath of the infamous Arab Spring, the monarchy reacted by revamping the constitution whereby the king gave up some of his large powers to the head of government. The ensuing elections brought the Islamists to power but not incremental democracy or wellbeing to the population.

The Islamists are obsequious to the Makhzen and ineffectual in development because they have no economic program, in the least.

Now Islamism is on the wane but so is democracy and Morocco has, alas, become a land of opportunism where there is no hope for opportunity, at all.

Hoping for the best

Morocco – Bibliography

American University. Morocco: A Country Study. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1985.
Bowles, Paul. Morocco . New York: H. N. Abrams, 1993.
Cook, Weston F. The Hundred Years War for Morocco:Gunpowder and the Military Revolution in the Early Modern Muslim World. Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1994.
Findlay, A. M. Morocco . Oxford, England: Clio Press, 1995.
Hoisington, William A. Lyauatey and the French Conquest of Morocco . New York: St. Martin’ s Press, 1995.
McDougall, James (ed.). Nation, Society and Culture in North Africa. London: Frank Cass Publishers, 2003.
Munson, Henry. Religion and Power in Morocco. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1993.
Park, Thomas Kerlin. Historical Dictionary of Morocco . Rev. ed.Lanham, Md.: Scarecrow Press, 1996.
Pazzanita, Anthony G. Historical Dictionary of Western Sahara .2nd ed. Metuchen, N.J.: Scarecrow Press, 1994.
Pennell, C. R. Morocco Since 1830: A History. New York: New York University Press, 1999.
Wagner, Daniel A. Literacy, Culture, and Development:Becoming Literate in Morocco . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993.


India Under Pressure to Upgrade Nuclear Arsenal As Major Powers Expedite Modernisation Plans – Analysis

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By Manoj Joshi

When the most powerful nation on earth feels that the threats it faces are increasing, it touches off dangerous eddies that can destablise global security.  The United States has signalled that this is, indeed, the case. The December 2017 National Security Strategy (NSS) declared that China and Russia were “attempting to erode American security and prosperity”.

In  January 2018, the US adopted a new National Defence Strategy (NDS) whose unclassified summary says the principal problem confronting the US is the erosion of American military advantage over China and Russia in three key theatres — Indo-Pacific, Europe and West Asia.

So it’s not surprising that the Nuclear Posture Review issued shortly thereafter called for the US to expand its reliance on nuclear forces to protect the country and reassure allies. In addition to modernising ageing forces, it said there was a need for two new missiles, a  low-yield sea-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) and a new sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM).

The US says it is reacting to developments in Russia, North Korea, Iran and China.

The North Korean thermonuclear test and the sophistication of its long-range missiles was no doubt a major factor. But so were Russian developments in testing and deploying a new line of strategic nuclear-capable missiles and hypersonic vehicles capable of outmanoeuvring US defences. The US cited the Russian deployment of a new ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM), the 9M729, for its pullout of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. By their test of hypersonic glide vehicles, manoeuvering and multiple warhead systems, the Chinese, too, signalled that their aim was to defeat potential US ABM systems.

Clearly, some of this has been triggered by the US decision to scrap, rather than renegotiate important arms control treaties like the 1972 Anti Ballistic Missile(ABM) Treaty. American advances in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, as well as precision strikes, have had their own chilling effect on the Russians and the Chinese.

Contemporary political developments and advances in technology are challenging the uncomfortable but useful notion of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) that has ensured nuclear peace so far. Countries like India, a modest nuclear weapons power, which faces two nuclear adversaries, will now have to take them into account.

First, India’s no first use (NFU) pledge has been challenged by the low-yield theatre weapons deployed by Pakistan which believes theatre weapons are crucial for their defence against India’s conventional superiority.

But even a low-yield weapon is thousands of time more destructive than a conventional one. As of now India has promised “massive retaliation” against any nuclear use. The way it sees it is similar to the position of US defence secretary James Mattis who said in February “I don’t think there’s any such thing as a tactical nuclear weapon. Any nuclear weapon used anytime is a strategic game-changer.”

Second, India has to worry about a modernised Chinese arsenal that can defeat American counter-measures. In view of India’s somewhat primitive arsenal, the Chinese may be encouraged to think they can get away with a disarming first strike, eroding the stability provided by the idea of MAD.

Nuclear forces being upgraded and modernised globally are pressuring India once again, just as once the perpetual extension of the NPT and the CTBT pushed New Delhi across the nuclear threshold.

This article originally appeared in First Post.

Regulating Artificial Intelligence: An Ethical Approach – Analysis

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As the use of artificial intelligence (AI) becomes more pervasive in everyday life, questions are being asked about where the legal and ethical bright lines are – or should be – in regulating its use.

By Teo Yi-Ling*

Artificial Intelligence or AI has been developing incrementally for the last six decades, but is currently in an explosive period of growth. Key force multipliers have been the proliferation of big data, increasingly powerful computing capabilities, and complex developments in algorithms. AI is now the main differential in the transport, manufacturing, retail, and healthcare industries, deployed in automating jobs that are by nature repetitive and prone to risk.

AI applications for processes relating to asset and risk management, fraud detection, compliance, due diligence, document review, and research are being increasingly deployed in the finance and legal services industries. The United States and Israeli militaries are also investing heavily in the creation of autonomous weapon systems. Such disruption by AI in these contexts is largely justified on the bases of consistency, risk mitigation, and increased efficiencies.

Narrow vs General AI

For clarity, it is useful to distinguish between “narrow” AI (function-specific applications like automated systems and image recognition) and “general” AI (applications that appear to demonstrate sentient behaviour). With “general” AI, a key concern is the apparent surrender of human autonomy to algorithmic functioning.

The question here is where accountability would then lie in situations where AI makes decisions that are opaque to human scrutiny, contrary to human welfare. Fully autonomous weapon systems are an example – these seek out targets, decide on engagement, and carry out that decision, without human intervention.

Opponents of such systems argue for a ban on these, on the bases of unpredictability, susceptibility to algorithmic bias, and ability to cause unintended harm.

This debate cannot only happen within stakeholder silos, as this would be inefficient and inherently biased. It needs to take place among government authorities, civil society organisations, universities, and industry bodies.

As we look to the potential benefits that AI is intended to deliver − sustainable economic growth; smarter living; new job opportunities, a more connected society; security; increased national resilience – a collective debate is critical to ensure that the most ethically appropriate decisions are made towards achieving these goals.

Rationalisation and Regulation

The use of AI has accelerated ahead of our ability to reckon with the ethical and legal issues it is raising. Calls for regulation are being heard worldwide, and in this respect, governments appear to be treading carefully. The challenge is calibrating the balance between encouraging and chilling AI innovation. In rationalising the existence of AI in our lives, the notion primum non nocere – “first, do no harm”, is helpful. This can be unpacked as follows:

Firstly, AI’s development must be guided by human welfare. Justice, equality, safety, accountability, respect for privacy, and transparency are some values it must reflect. Secondly, it must enhance our human existence by serving our needs complementarily. Notwithstanding the efficiencies that AI contributes, humans still master the emotional, creative and intellectual domains.

Thirdly, AI’s range and depth of perception, and ability for subjective nuance must become sympathetic with ours, for it to be appropriately and sensitively harnessed in certain contexts that have the potential for harm. Examples are image recognition, the administration of criminal justice, and military targeting.

Ethical Decision-Making, Then Law

The call for a unique set of laws to establish regulatory bright lines has been heard for some time, as current legal frameworks are deemed insufficient to accommodate the existence of AI and its potential consequences. In this respect, the European Commission spent over a year since January 2017 working on a framework of legislative and non-legislative measures, at the behest of the European Parliament.

At the heart of the debate is the legal personality of AI. The law recognises the concept of the artificial legal person – incorporated entities granted a set of rights, powers and obligations for conducting a range of activities, separate from the natural legal persons operating them.

With this arrangement, there are still the elements of control and accountability – human actors operating the artificial platform of the entity. This could be an analogue for the management and control of the development and manifestation of AI. However, given the manner in which legal systems are structured, the law is always caught on the back foot in providing answers for novel situations.

When it comes to determining causation of harm and assessing liability, it is an exercise in shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted. Law and regulation may not be the best approaches to start with.

Alternative Approach

Ahead of constructing any legal framework, the following approach is posited as an alternative:

– Deeply engage with the contextual scenarios presented by the current landscape of AI development and deployment: where the innovation is happening; where the disruptions are taking place and the attendant net effects; who the main actors are.

– Debatethe values that we place on AI innovation and its goals in and of themselves, in contrast to how such innovation benefits humankind: its strengths, weaknesses, the opportunities it provides, and the threats it presents.

– Clarify the philosophical basis (or bases) that justifies and drives our conclusions on either side of the argument: do we call on utilitarianism, adopt an attitude of moderation and temperance, act only with the welfare of humans in mind, employ a rationally egalitarian approach, or be persuaded by absolute virtue?

– Clarify where the competing loyalties to the stakeholders in these contexts lie, and subsequently prioritising them.

The above model for discussion and eventual decision-making is the Potter Box model, originally developed by Ralph B. Potter, Jr., professor of social ethics emeritus at Harvard Divinity School. He designed it as a systematic discipline for the purpose of resolving ethical dilemmas.

The genius of the model is its applicability to almost any dilemma requiring ethical decision-making. Whatever decision emerges at the end is a result of the decision-makers’ fully-considered rationalisation.

*Teo Yi-Ling is a Senior Fellow with the Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS), S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

Indonesia’s Growing Halal Market: Impact On The Economy – Analysis

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Indonesia remains the largest Muslim country in the world in terms of population. In 2019, Indonesia will officially implement a law on Halal Product Assurance. This legal framework will potentially turn Indonesia into the largest halal market in the world. What are its implications?

By Syafiq Hasyim*

Halal, or what is permissible in Islam, has clearly become a contested discourse in the Indonesian public sphere since the 1990s. The awareness of consuming halal products has been obligatory for Indonesian Muslims for a very long time. “Halalness” became an issue in Indonesia’s public and legal spheres since traces of pork-enzyme use were discovered in the milk products of a certain brand called DANCOW in East Java.

The Muslim consumers protested the company because their drink was discovered through the research of Brawijaya University, Malang, to be contaminated with impurity (najis). The Suharto government instructed the Indonesia Ulama Council (Majelis Ulama Indonesia, MUI) to intervene and help find a solution. The issue was affecting economic stability in East Java especially for milk farmers who were not able to sell their products to the company.

Genesis of the Halal Institution

MUI came with a new idea to establish an institution that would have the responsibility and task to investigate, determine and watch the lawfulness of such products and goods available for sale in the public domain. In 1989, MUI established the Research Institute on Food, Medicine and Cosmetics, better known by its Indonesian acronym LPPOM (Lembaga Pengkajian Pangan, Obat-Obatan dan Kosmetika) with a mandate to become a halal institution.

Although LPPOM-MUI was established with the full support of the Suharto administration, this institution was not given the power to compel producers and vendors to halal-certify their products. As a non-state organisation (MUI), the LPPOM-MUI could only flex its cultural and religious influence and project its moral standing on the Indonesian Muslim community in general, and vendors and producers of goods (food, drink, medicines and cosmetics) in particular, about the importance of the “halalness” of goods.

Despite its limited authority and capacity, after three decades, the LPPOM-MUI has claimed success in cultivating the halal lifestyle not only among Indonesian consumers but also the general market players. This is evident from the number of vendors and producers who seek halal certificates for their products from LPPOM-MUI.

The LPPOM-MUI not only operates at the national level, but also internationally. Many international certifiers from European countries, Australia, America, Turkey and Muslim countries come to seek permission from LPPOM-MUI to become international halal certifiers on behalf of LPPOM-MUI.

The latest accomplishment of MUI was its ability to convince the lawmakers of Indonesia to legislate State Law No. 33/2014 on Halal Product Assurance.

Regulating Halal

Indonesia is relatively late in regulating halal products through state policy in comparison to Malaysia, Turkey, and other Muslim countries. Since independence, Indonesian Muslims, as the primary stakeholders of “halalness” in the country, never had an issue with what they consumed and produced. There was therefore no consciousness of a need to draft such a national ruling guiding them on what is halal and non-halal (lawful and unlawful).

“Halalness” or otherwise was considered a private matter that Indonesian Muslim consumers could determine through self-control, without the need for state intervention. Proposing a state law on halal can also be seen as elevating a sharia matter – about halal and non-halal — into public law.

However, following the development of the halal market, on the one hand, and the growing piety of Muslims, in general, the lawmakers of Indonesia felt the importance of having a state law on halal issues. State Law No. 33/2014 on Halal Product Assurance was officially legislated in 2014; in 2019 this law will be fully enacted.

This law stipulates that having a halal certificate is an obligation and mandatory for all actors that produce goods. For those who disagree with marking their products with the halal label, their choice is to merely declare their products and goods as non-halal (haram, unlawful) products.

It means there are only two categories of commodities and products in Indonesia: halal (lawful) and non-halal or haram (unlawful). Although the non-halal label does not necessarily indicate the unlawfulness of such products, in reality such a labelling can create a negative image in the market. The public and consumers will judge them by not buying and consuming non-halal commodities and products.

Expansion of Halal Space: Market and Islamic Piety

The consequence of the new law on halal is the expansion of the halal space. This expansion covers two issues; the creation of a new market and the significant rise of sharia-based piety in Muslim consumption. On the creation of market, when the new law was officially declared, the response from the business community was not quite positive.

Businessmen and entrepreneurs do not want to be forced by law to spend extra for getting halal certificates, in relation to their potential profit from the halal market. However, they are aware of the halal market potential because 86% of the Indonesian population is Muslim and this is the largest Muslim market in Asia.

On the rise of sharia-based piety, the enactment of this law is potentially understood and is acknowledged as a manifestation of the growing Islamic consciousness in Indonesia. Halal is not only about extending market space for Muslim people to eat, drink, and consume goods, but also about extending the obligatory practice of sharia.

This assumption is realistic, considering that the enactment of this law is going together with the rise of Islamic piety and Islamic identity politics in the last decade in the Indonesian public sphere.

What Should be Anticipated?

There are two things that can be anticipated. First, State Law No. 33/2014 on halal does not provide negotiable room for those who disagree with this law. It is true that the content of the law is very sharia, but this law also provides a battlefield not only for Muslims, but also for others.

The market is not about things Islamic and un-Islamic, but the market is also about how to produce commodities that attract people to buy and consume. This is the commercial side of the law on halal.

Second, the economic implication of the halal policy is that there will be an increase and escalation of Muslim entrepreneurship in the economic field in Indonesia. The number of SME actors in Indonesia is around 3.6 million and the majority of them are Muslim entrepreneurs and businessmen.

The state law on halal assurance states that the state will subsidise the cost of halal certificates for SMEs. It means that the consequence of this state law is the possible mushrooming of Muslim entrepreneurship and businesses due to state support.

This potential increase in the space of Muslim business will have an impact on the shifting economic structure, from a concentration on high capital business to small and middle enterprises in the future.

*Syafiq Hasyim is a Visiting Fellow at the Indonesia Programme of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

Russia’s Interaction With ASEAN Countries Has Great Potential For Further Development – Analysis

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International observers and political analysts continue to discuss the outcome of Vladimir Putin’s state visit to the Republic of Singapore, where he participated in Russia – Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit and the XIII East Asian Summit on November 11–15.

During his visit, the Russian leader also held a number of bilateral meetings discussing current issues of cooperation and interaction with President of Singapore Halimah Yacob, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, President of the Republic of Korea Moon Jae-in, Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Thailand Prayut Chan-ocha, President of the Republic of Indonesia Joko Widodo, and Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China Li Keqiang.

“Over the past two years, we have accomplished a lot together. Political dialogue intensified; Russia’s permanent mission to ASEAN was established in Jakarta last year. We coordinate our approaches to key issues on the Asia-Pacific agenda, to the challenges and threats to regional stability, and enhance joint efforts to fight terrorism, drug trafficking and organised crime. Our foreign ministers hold annual meetings. The Russian Defence Minister takes part in the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ meetings, and the Interior Minister attends the ASEAN Association of Chiefs of Police (ASEANAPOL) conferences. Contacts have also been established between Russian lawmakers and the ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Assembly,” Vladimir Putin said at the plenary meeting of the Russia-ASEAN summit.

“We consider it important to establish regular dialogue between ASEAN and the Eurasian Economic Union. The signing of a memorandum of understanding between the Association and the Eurasian Economic Commission is a step in this direction. We are grateful to our ASEAN partners for supporting the Russian initiative to pass a joint statement on information security aiming to more effectively combat cybercrime and to chart common approaches regarding the behaviour of states in the global information space,” he added.

Later, answering journalists’ questions, Vladimir Putin stressed that no Western sanctions could prevent the cooperation of Russia with the ASEAN states, and added that the development of economies would continue.

“This cannot stop our technological or economic development altogether. This is completely impossible. Therefore, cooperation will continue. I have said today that Asian countries account for some 25 percent of our trade, and growth in this sphere has been considerable. It amounted to 27 percent, or some $200 billion, last year. Our trade is growing; our relations are developing in all fields,” he said after his state visit.

Commenting on the results of the meeting in Singapore, Lak Chansok, Researcher at Cambodia Maritime Silk Road Research Center (CMSRRC), the Royal University of Phnom Penh in Cambodia and at Democracy Promotion Center, Research Center for Asia Pacific Studies (RCAPS), Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University in Japan, said that ASEAN summit participants addressed many security issues including, climate change, terrorism, piracy, ethnic and religious tensions, as well as discussed digital economy in the fourth industrial revolution.

“On the sideline of the ASEAN Summit, the East Asia Summit this year centered on tackling two pressing challenges: terrorism and cyberattack. ASEAN Leaders along with eight other countries including Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Russia and the United States also voiced to strengthen their cooperation to deal with such new challenges. In this connection, ASEAN Member States also adopted separated statements with its dialogue partners such as ASEAN-US Leaders’ Statement on Cybersecurity Cooperation; ASEAN-Russia Statement on Security and ICT Cooperation among others,” Lak Chansok told PenzaNews.

He also drew attention to the ASEAN concern about the fast growing changing international order and threats from great power rivalry in Southeast Asia.

“As Singapore and other ASEAN Member States reiterated that the existing ‘free, open and rules-based multilateral system’ has come to its turning point since major countries are resorting to ‘unilateral actions’ and ‘bilateral deals’ and thus undermining important roles of multilateral approaches and institutions. It is explicit that the US current adopts its protectionist economic strategy to reduce its trade deficits at the expense of such […] multilateral order,” the expert said, adding that the US trade conflict with China and its bilateral economic deals with other countries negatively affects the fast growing export-oriented Asian countries.

Due to the growing US-China trade war and the US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), it is crucial for ASEAN to push forwards to materializing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) without the present of the US, he believes.

“The RCEP members include ASEAN-10 plus Australia, China, Japan, India, South Korea and New Zealand. On the slide of the ASEAN Summit, Singapore played proactive roles in urging India to join ASEAN to realize RCEP since India has been reluctant that opening its market would hurt both its agricultural and industrial sectors,” the analyst added.

Meanwhile, the ASEAN-Russia relations has become politically, strategically and economically more substantial.

“At this year’s ASEAN Summit, both ASEAN and EEU signed agreements to strengthen economic cooperation. The trade between these two blocs increased to 35.7 billion dollars in 2017 and expected to further increase in coming years. In political-security aspect, both parties issued the joint statement to enhance mutual cooperation in the information and communication technologies as a vital driver in governance, security, economy, commerce and trade among others. It is also believed that Russia’s roles in ASEAN can greatly contribute to ASEAN’s dynamic equilibrium engaging all key major powers,” Lak Chansok said.

Termsak Chalermpalanupap from the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, called the summit a good success.

“ASEAN has once again defended economic multilateralism in general, and in particular pushing for the ‘substantial conclusion’ of the RCEP negotiations by the end of this year with the goal of concluding the negotiations next year,” the expert explained.

According to him, from the political perspective, ASEAN displays its centrality, its relevance in Southeast Asia.

“ASEAN remains a credible promoter of international dialogue and cooperation for peace, security and prosperity,” Termsak Chalermpalanupap stressed.

Commenting on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s participation in the summit, the expert called it a “good gesture.”

“ASEAN certainly is very happy to see President Putin here in Singapore. And undoubtedly ASEAN is rather disappointed by the absence of President Trump. His Vice President just doesn’t leave much positive impact here,” the analyst said.

In his opinion, Russia and the ASEAN countries have every chance for further successful cooperation.

“ASEAN-Russia partnership has a great deal of potential which has not yet been realized, but it is certainly within reach if both sides redouble their concerted efforts. The signing of the cooperation MOU between the Secretary-General of ASEAN and the representative of the Eurasian Economic Union is a significant step in the right direction,” the Singaporean expert said.

“Russia has energy resources and very advanced space technology, knowhow in medical science and cyber security which ASEAN countries need. Russia can step up cooperation with ASEAN in these areas, especially in 2019 when Thailand chairs ASEAN and in 2020 when Vietnam succeeds Thailand in chairing ASEAN. Both Thailand and Vietnam would want closer cooperation with Russia, especially in energy trade, and in cyber security,” Termsak Chalermpalanupap explained.

In turn, Grant Newsham, Senior Research Fellow at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies in Tokyo, with experience as a US Diplomat and US Marine Officer, suggested that at the ASEAN summits there is a tendency to reach “lowest common denominator” agreements.

“ASEAN has its limitations given the relatively few overlapping areas of interest between its members – not to mention considerable political and cultural differences, and outright dislike in certain cases,” Grant Newsham explained.

In his opinion, only two things were of particular note at this year’s summit.

“First, one got the impression ASEAN members who are not already in the PRC camp are increasingly ‘spooked’ by China. Chinese political, economic, and military assertiveness, if not outright aggression – such as in the South China Sea – wouldn’t have even gotten a mention if Vice President Michael Pence hadn’t shown up,” former US Diplomat said.

“The second notable aspect was the United States laying down a marker– stating in clear assertive language – rather than usual nuanced ‘diplo-speak’ – America’s intent to defend its and like-minded countries’ interests in a ‘free and open’ Indo-Pacific. Moreover, Vice President Pence specifically presented the US as an alternative to Chinese military and economic domination,” Grant Newsham added.

According to him, the leadership of the United States should have taken such an initiative earlier.

“It would have been better if Washington had stood up ten years ago, and ASEAN nations will need plenty of convincing that the US’s new found backbone has substance and will last beyond the Trump Administration,” the analyst suggested.

Speaking about cooperation between Russia and ASEAN, he expressed the opinion that there are clear limits to their cooperation, and “it’s hard to see what Russia offers ASEAN other than weapons, and it’s also unclear what ASEAN offers Russia.”

“On the one hand, Moscow sells submarines and advanced air defense systems to Vietnam, and jet fighters to Indonesia and Malaysia, while at the same time broadcasting Russia’s tight military relationship with the PRC – manifested in high-profile joint exercises. Given that the PRC fully intends to bring ASEAN nations to heel, some of the Southeast Asian nations must wonder exactly what Russia has in mind for ASEAN as China continues tightening the screws on ASEAN nations,” Grant Newsham explained his view.

Meanwhile, Shankaran Nambiar, Senior Research Fellow at Malaysian Institute of Economic Research in Kuala Lumpur, said that ASEAN Summit could not have been better timed.

“At a time when the global economy is fraught with anxiety over the future of globalisation, trade tensions and increasing isolationism, ASEAN stands as a loose membership of nations that are held together by the hope for greater trade, investment and economic cooperation,” the analyst said, stressing that the region that has done well by subscribing to these values.

However, according to him, there were some dark clouds that marred “what might otherwise have been a perfect summit.”

“Principle among them was the postponement of the deadline for the conclusion of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The other issue that did not see a definitive resolution was Myanmar’s Rohingya problem,” Shankaran Nambiar said.

“However, the summit adopted seven policy documents. They included a smart cities framework, a joint statement on climate change and acknowledgement of the rights of people with disabilities,” the expert added.

In his opinion, the participation of Russian leader Vladimir Putin in the summit had a positive effect on the strengthening of cooperation between Russia and the ASEAN countries.

“If US President Donald Trump was noticeable through his absence, Russian President Vladimir Putin made his presence tangibly felt. Russia’s interest in the region was made clear through the signing of the memorandum of understanding between ASEAN and the Eurasian Economic Union after the summit. This MOU will spur trade and investment between the Southeast Asian member states and those of the Eurasian Economic Union,” Shankaran Nambiar said.

He also drew attention to the fact that Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong strongly supported the upgrading of the ASEAN-Russia relationship to a strategic partnership.

“This is a clear indication that the discussions that have been held in the last few years under the Eastern Economic Forum were paving the way for broader and a more strategic relationship with ASEAN. Singapore has been a leader in this respect since it has taken bold steps in collaborating economically with Russia and EEU. It very much depends on ASEAN member states as to their willingness and readiness to take advantage of the opportunities that will arise in future,” the analyst concluded.

Source: https://penzanews.ru/en/analysis/65791-2018

New Research Questions Fish Stocking Obligations

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Fish stocking as a fisheries compensation method in hydropower operations no longer meets latest legal and scientific requirements, according to a new study from the University of Eastern Finland. Published in Water International, the study focuses on ecological flows from the viewpoints of law and biology.

Intensive history of fish stockings in Finland

After the World Wars, the vast majority of Finnish rivers were harnessed for hydropower operations. Initially, the Finnish legislation included an obligation to build fishways as a method to compensate for hydropower harm to fisheries. However, fish farming rapidly replaced fishways as the primary compensatory action. Initially, fish stockings were ahead of their time and among the first examples of ecological compensation measures set for the industries. In the early days of their use, they also produced good catches in both commercial and recreational fisheries.

However, research has since shown that fish stocking cannot permanently replace the natural reproductive cycles of migratory fish. Prior to the industrial revolution, Finland boasted 25 Atlantic salmon, 72 anadromous brown trout and dozens of inland rivers with landlocked salmonids. Yet currently, the number of Finnish rivers sustaining natural reproduction of salmon has been reduced to four, and only small and rare populations of wild migratory brown trout, migratory whitefish and migratory grayling have survived.

Towards ecosystem-level compensation

“New genetic studies have shown that fish farming alters the genetic traits of farmed fish. As fish adapt to the farm environment, their genetic traits change and they no longer survive in the wild as well as they used to,” says Professor of Evolutionary Aquatic Biology Anssi Vainikka from the University of Eastern Finland.

Genetic differentiation has been observed even among salmonid populations living in different branches of the same river. This genetic diversity, which is essential for, e.g., adaptation to climate change, cannot be maintained in fish farming.

The study concludes that the harm caused by hydropower operations cannot be compensated sustainably without the natural reproduction of fish. Furthermore, in the future, the harm caused by hydropower operations should be compensated with the entire aquatic ecosystem in mind, not just fish.

“The problems of migratory fish in Finland are not limited to large coastal rivers. For instance, populations of salmonids and migratory whitefish living in our inland watersheds are in desperate need of new reproduction areas and migratory routes,” Senior Researcher of Fish Biology Hannu Huuskonen from the University of Eastern Finland explains.

Legal adjustments?

According to Senior Researcher of Environmental Law and Jurisprudence Niko Soininen from the University of Eastern Finland, legislation should be better equipped to respond to the need to revive populations of migratory fish, as well as to the good water status objectives of water management in general.

“At present, the greatest legal pressures come from the EU Water Framework Directive, which requires that EU member states reach good ecological status in all inland waters. The vitality of migratory fish populations is used as one of the indicators of this status. The EU’s guidance documentation emphasises the key role of sufficient ecological flows and migratory pathways in reaching good ecological status,” Professor of Environmental Law Antti Belinskij from the University of Eastern Finland says.

The Finnish Water Act allows for the amendment of old fisheries compensation obligations. However, if the original hydropower permit does not include a compensation obligation, it is not possible to include one later.

Furthermore, the role of the water status objectives and their impact on the amendment of existing permits is unclear in the Finnish water legislation. In accordance with the current Water Act of Finland, existing permits are permanent and this is often interpreted as an obstacle to amending them.

Way forward

According to Professor Vainikka, the window for making such amendments is closing. Recent comparative studies on trout populations have shown that, against earlier knowledge, their migratory behaviour is under genetic influence. If migratory trout populations lose too many of their original wild qualities under hatchery breeding, they cannot be saved even by crossing them with the last remaining wild trout populations, as they are lacking the crucial migration genes.

Moreover, research suggests that the downwards trend in the success of fish stocking outcomes is not likely to turn to positive in the foreseeable future. The only sustainable way to compensate for the harm caused by hydropower operations is to safeguard the natural living conditions of wild fish populations. This is justified also from the legal perspective.

Is Being A Night Owl Bad For Your Health?

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Night owls may have a higher risk of suffering from heart disease and type 2 diabetes than early risers.

In the first ever international review of studies analysing whether being an early riser or a night owl can influence your health, researchers have uncovered a growing body of evidence indicating an increased risk of ill health in people with an evening preference as they have more erratic eating patterns and consume more unhealthy foods.

The findings have been reported in Advances in Nutrition.

The human body runs on a 24-hour cycle which is regulated by our internal clock, which is known as a circadian rhythm, or chronotype. This internal clock regulates many physical functions, such as telling you when to eat, sleep and wake. An individual’s chronotype leads to people having a natural preference towards waking early or going to bed late.

The researchers found increasing evidence emerging from studies linking conditions such as heart disease and type 2 diabetes to people with the evening chronotype – a natural preference for evenings.

People who go to bed later tend to have unhealthier diets, consuming more alcohol, sugars, caffeinated drinks and fast food than early risers. They consistently report more erratic eating patterns as they miss breakfast and eat later in the day. Their diet contains less grains, rye and vegetables and they eat fewer, but larger, meals. They also report higher levels of consumption of caffeinated beverages, sugar and snacks, than those with a morning preference, who eat slightly more fruit and vegetables per day. This potentially explains why night owls have a higher risk of suffering from chronic disease.

Eating late in the day was also found to be linked to an increased risk of type 2 diabetes because the circadian rhythm influences the way glucose is metabolised in in the body.

Glucose levels should naturally decline throughout the day and reach their lowest point at night. However, as night owls often eat shortly before bed, their glucose levels are increased when they are about to sleep. This could negatively affect metabolism as their body isn’t following its normal biological process.

One study showed that people with an evening preference were 2.5 times more likely to have type 2 diabetes than those with a morning preference.

This also impacts on people who work shifts – particularly rotating shifts – as they are constantly adjusting their body clock to fit with their working hours. The researchers found that this reduces their sensitivity to insulin and affects their glucose tolerance, putting them at greater risk of developing type 2 diabetes.

The review also uncovered interesting trends:

  • People’s preferences to rising early and going to bed later change at varying points in the life cycle. The morning chronotype is more common in children and can appear when a baby is just three-weeks old. This changes during childhood. While over 90% of two-year-olds have a morning preference, this declines to 58% by the age of six, and shifts further towards an evening preference during puberty. This evening preference continues until an adult reaches their early 50’s and they then begin to revert back to a morning preference.
  • Ethnicity and society can also influence your chronotype. For example, studies have revealed that Germans are more likely to have an evening preference in comparison to Indians and Slovakians. There can also be differences between people living in urban and rural areas in the same country.
  • Another study noted that being exposed to daylight influenced sleep. Every additional hour spent outdoors was associated with 30 minutes of ‘advance sleep’ and that the noise, ambient lighting and crowding of urban environments can make people in some areas more likely to have a morning or evening preference.
  • The researchers also found evidence that night owls would accumulate ‘sleep debt’ during the working week and would sleep longer at weekends to compensate for this, whereas early birds had smaller differences in their sleeping patterns across the week.

The study was led by Dr Suzana Almoosawi from Northumbria University, Newcastle in the UK and Dr Leonidas Karagounis, Nestlé Health Sciences in Switzerland with academics representing Nestlé Research (Switzerland) the University of Surrey (UK), Örebro University (Sweden), the National University of Singapore, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (Switzerland) and Plymouth Marjon University (UK).

Dr Almoosawi, a Research Fellow in Northumbria’s Brain, Performance and Nutrition Research Centre, explained: “We have found that your genes, ethnicity and gender determine the likelihood of you being a morning or evening type. In adulthood, being an evening chronotype is associated with greater risk of heart disease and type 2 diabetes, and this may be potentially due to the poorer eating behaviour and diet of people with evening chronotype. Our review also found that people who have a poorer control of their diabetes are more likely to be evening types.

“The review has highlighted a major gap in our understanding as to how our biological clock affects food intake in infants, children and the elderly. While most infants synchronise their body clock to that of their mothers, as they reach six-years of age, we observe that a large proportion begin to show signs of developing an evening chronotype. Whether physiological changes, school timings or social schedules determine this change, we do not know.

Dr Almoosawi added: “In teenagers, we also find that evening chronotype is related to more erratic eating behaviour and poorer diet. This could have important implications to health in adulthood as most dietary habits are established in adolescence.”
The review team have called for more studies in the general population that define people’s body clock and how this relates in the long-term to their dietary habits and health.

Dr Leonidas G Karagounis of Nestlé Health Science, said: “Scientific evidence is providing increasing insight into the relationship between your chronotype, diet and cardiometabolic health. Overall, cross-sectional studies suggest that an evening chronotype is associated with lower intake of fruits and vegetables, and higher intake of energy drinks, alcoholic, sugary and caffeinated beverages, as well as higher energy intake from fat.

“Further research on the best methods to assess an individual’s chronotype and how this may affect their long-term cardiometabolic health can potentially guide the development of health promotion strategies aimed at preventing and treating chronic diseases based on an individual’s chronotype.”

Iran To Continue Testing Homegrown Missiles

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A senior spokesman for the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces reiterated the country’s policy to boost its deterrence power and said the test-firing of domestically made missiles will continue.

In remarks on Sunday, Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi shrugged off recent comments by enemies about Iran’s missile program and said testing missiles and increasing the military might of the Islamic Republic are only meant for defense and in line with the country’s deterrence.

“We will continue both the test and development of the missiles,” he said, adding that any negotiation with foreigners on the missile program is out of question since the issue is related to the country’s national security.

Iranian officials have repeatedly underscored that the country will not hesitate to strengthen its military capabilities, including its missile power, which are entirely meant for defense, and that Iran’s defense capabilities will be never subject to negotiations.

In late March, Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei underscored the need for boosting Iran’s defense capabilities, warning that enemies are making use of every tool available to undermine the Islamic Republic.

Ayatollah Khamenei said at the time that if the Islamic establishment seeks technology and negotiations but lacks defense might, it will have to buckle in the face of any weak country posing threats.


Pompeo Reiterates US Support For Saudi Arabia

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US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reiterated the United States’ support for Saudi Arabia on Saturday in an exclusive interview with CNN on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Argentina.
Speaking to the network’s Wolf Blitzer, Pompeo said the Kingdom was “an enormous support” to the US.

He said: “They are a relationship that has mattered for 70 years across Republican and Democrat administrations alike, and remain an important relationship. We’re aiming to keep that relationship with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.”

When asked about the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Pompeo cited a lack of direct evidence linking Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the murder on Oct. 2 in Istanbul.

“I have read every piece of intelligence that’s in the possession of the United States government,” Pompeo told Blitzer.

“And when it is done, when you complete that analysis, there’s no direct evidence linking him to the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. That is a accurate statement, it is an important statement, and it is a statement that we are making publicly today.”

Saudi Arabia’s prosecution has charged 11 people with involvement in the journalist’s death, while Donald Trump’s administration imposed penalties on 17 individuals last month over their alleged roles in the killing of Khashoggi.

During the interview, he also said that the US and Saudi Arabia were working closely in Afghanistan as well as against Iran.

Pompeo’s statement of US support for the Kingdom comes after he wrote on Wednesday that Saudi Arabia remained a “powerful force for stability in the Middle East” and warned against any attempts to harm US relations with Saudi Arabia.

“Saudi Arabia, like the US – and unlike these critics – recognizes the immense threat the Islamic Republic of Iran poses to the world,” he wrote in a blog post.

Suicide, Drug Overdose Rates Bring US Life Expectancy Down

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The suicide rate in the United States is at its highest in at least 50 years, and is contributing to a decrease in the nation’s life expectancy, the federal government said Thursday.

Life expectancy for the U.S. population declined to 78.6 in 2017, down from 78.7 the previous year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in a new report.

“Life expectancy gives us a snapshot of the Nation’s overall health and these sobering statistics are a wakeup call that we are losing too many Americans, too early and too often, to conditions that are preventable,” said CDC director Robert Redfield in a Nov. 29 statement.

The United States saw more than 47,000 suicides in 2017, an increase of more than 2,000 from the previous year.

In addition, there were more than 70,000 drug overdose deaths last year, a 10 percent rise from 2016. Deaths from heroin and prescription opioids remained steady from the previous year, while fentanyl deaths drastically increased.

Other findings in the CDC report included an increase in gun deaths, totaling almost 40,000. Deaths from heart disease – the top killer in the U.S. – are no longer declining, while deaths from flu and pneumonia increased by 6 percent.

While U.S. life expectancy had been rising for decades, the country is now seeing its longest period of generally declining life expectancy since World War I, according to the Associated Press.

Saltier Waterways Creating Dangerous ‘Chemical Cocktails’

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A recent study led by University of Maryland researchers found that streams and rivers across the United States have become saltier and more alkaline over the past 50 years, thanks to road deicers, fertilizers and other salty compounds that humans indirectly release into waterways. The team named this effect “Freshwater Salinization Syndrome.”

New research from the same UMD-led group takes a closer look at the global, regional and local consequences of Freshwater Salinization Syndrome. The group found that salty, alkaline freshwater can release a variety of chemicals, including toxic metals and harmful nitrogen-containing compounds, from streambeds and soils in drainage basins. The results further suggest that many of these chemicals travel together throughout watersheds, forming “chemical cocktails” that can have more devastating effects on drinking water supplies and ecosystems when compared with individual contaminants alone.

The group’s latest work, which includes field observations from the Washington, D.C. and Baltimore metropolitan areas, highlights the need for new and more comprehensive regulation and pollution management strategies. The research team published its findings December 3, 2018 in the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B.

“The bottom line of our findings is that when humans add salt to waterways, that salt also releases a lot of dangerous collateral chemicals,” said Sujay Kaushal, a professor of geology at UMD and lead author of the study. “It’s clear that regulatory agencies need to find new ways to address these ‘chemical cocktails’ released by saltier water, rather than looking at individual freshwater pollutants one by one.”

Salty, alkaline freshwater is already known to create big problems for drinking water supplies, urban infrastructure and natural ecosystems. For example, when Flint, Michigan, switched its primary water source to the Flint River in 2014, the river’s high salt load combined with chemical treatments to make the water more corrosive, causing lead to leach from water pipes and creating that city’s well-documented water crisis.

Kaushal and his colleagues’ latest research project investigated the impacts of chemical cocktails created by saltier water in more detail. The group began by assessing previously published data from rivers in the U.S., Europe, Canada, Russia, China and Iran, substantially expanding the geographic boundaries of the researchers’ previous work. Their analysis suggests that Freshwater Salinization Syndrome could be a global phenomenon, with the most conclusive support showing a steady trend of increased salt ions in both U.S. and European rivers. These trends trace back at least 50 years, with some data reaching back far enough to support a 100-year trend.

?”Given what we are finding, I continue to be surprised by the scope and magnitude of the recent degradation of Earth’s surface waters,” said study co-author Gene Likens, president emeritus of the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies and a distinguished research professor at the University of Connecticut. “The formation of novel chemical cocktails is causing deterioration far beyond my expectations.”

In the snowy Mid-Atlantic states and New England, road salt applied to roadways in winter is a primary cause of Freshwater Salinization Syndrome. Kaushal and his colleagues took a deeper dive into the chemical consequences of road salt by performing detailed field studies in streams located near Washington, D.C. and Baltimore.

In one set of observations, the researchers sampled water from the Paint Branch stream near the UMD campus before, during and after a 2017 snowstorm. This aspect of the study allowed the team to trace the effects of road salt washed into the streams by the melting snow.

“We thought it would be interesting to get a view of the chemistry in an urban river throughout a snowstorm,” said Kelsey Wood (B.S. ’15, geology), a geology graduate student at UMD and a co-author of the study. “Salt concentrations during the snowstorm were surprisingly high–it was like we were analyzing sea water. But we weren’t expecting such a high corresponding peak in metals.”

Previous research has shown that very salty water can force metals–especially copper, cadmium, manganese and zinc–out of streambed soils and into stream water. In the Paint Branch stream, Kaushal and his colleagues noted large spikes in copper, manganese and zinc immediately following the snowstorm. In a similar set of observations in Washington, D.C.’s Rock Creek, the team observed notable spikes in cadmium, copper and zinc following other snowstorms.

In another series of experiments, the researchers artificially added salt to the Gwynns Falls stream near Baltimore to simulate what happens during a snowstorm and measured copper concentrations in the water before, during and after adding salt. The downstream data showed an instant spike in copper released from the streambed, suggesting a direct connection between the stream’s salt content and copper in the water.

Salt ion concentrations can stay high for months following a storm, Kaushal added. This lengthens the amount of time that salt can draw metals from the soil, resulting in harmful cocktails of metals and salts transported far downstream.

“Looking at water quality data over several months in the winter, salt remains high and rarely has a chance to return to baseline before the next storm comes through and more salt is put on the roads,” said Kaushal, who also has an appointment in UMD’s Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center. “This high salt load not only liberates metals and other contaminants, but there is also evidence that the initial salt pulse releases other salt ions from the streambed and soils, such as magnesium and potassium, which further contribute to keeping overall salt levels high.”

In the heavily agricultural Midwest and areas of the Mid-Atlantic states, agricultural fertilizers are a significant cause of Freshwater Salinization Syndrome. To investigate further, the research team looked at water quality data from 26 different U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring sites along rivers in these areas.

These USGS stations collected data every 15 minutes on salinity, pH and nitrate ions–a harmful byproduct of agricultural fertilizers and other contaminants. These high-frequency measurements gave the research team valuable real-time insights, with several of the rivers showing a clear and nearly immediate connection between increased salinity and nitrate concentrations.

“To me, this study highlights the need to view salt as an emerging contaminant in freshwater,” said Shahan Haq (B.S. ’14, physical sciences), a geology graduate student at UMD and a co-author of the study. “Salt’s ability to move heavy metals like copper from sediments into the water could have dangerous implications for our drinking water and could be toxic to wildlife. Our observations suggest that some rivers are already at risk, especially here in the eastern U.S. directly following road salt applications.”

Black Hole ‘Donuts’ Are Actually ‘Fountains’

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Based on computer simulations and new observations from the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA), researchers have found that the rings of gas surrounding active supermassive black holes are not simple donut shapes. Instead, gas expelled from the center interacts with infalling gas to create a dynamic circulation pattern, similar to a water fountain in a city park.

Most galaxies host a supermassive black hole, millions or billions of times as heavy as the Sun, in their centers. Some of these black holes swallow material quite actively. But astronomers have believed that rather than falling directly into the black hole, matter instead builds up around the active black hole forming a donut structure.

Takuma Izumi, a researcher at the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ), led a team of astronomers that used ALMA to observe the supermassive black hole in the Circinus Galaxy located 14 million light-years away from the Earth in the direction of the constellation Circinus. The team then compared their observations to a computer simulation of gas falling towards a black hole made with the Cray XC30 ATERUI supercomputer operated by NAOJ.

This comparison revealed that the presumptive “donut” is not actually a rigid structure, but instead a complex collection of highly dynamic gaseous components. First, cold molecular gas falling towards the black hole forms a disk near the plane of rotation. As it approaches the black hole, this gas is heated until the molecules break down into the component atoms and ions. Some of these atoms are then expelled above and below the disk, rather than being absorbed by the black hole. This hot atomic gas falls back onto the disk creating a turbulent three dimensional structure. These three components circulate continuously, similar to a water fountain in a city park.

“Previous theoretical models set a priori assumptions of rigid donuts,” explains Keiichi Wada, a theoretician at Kagoshima University in Japan, who lead the simulation study and is a member of the research team. “Rather than starting from assumptions, our simulation started from the physical equations and showed for the first time that the gas circulation naturally forms a donut. Our simulation can also explain various observational features of the system.”

“By investigating the motion and distribution of both the cold molecular gas and warm atomic gas with ALMA, we demonstrated the origin of the so-called ‘donut’ structure around active black holes,” said Izumi. “Based on this discovery, we need to rewrite the astronomy textbooks.”

Searching An Artificial Bee Colony For Real-World Results

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Honey bees are not only vitally important pollinators of food crops, their hunt for rich food sources has also proved to be an excellent model for optimizing numerical problems. Now, researchers from Kanazawa University and the University of Toyama have used the intelligent behavior of bees to improve optimization performance in real-world problems.

Inspired by the foraging behavior of a honey bee colony, the artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is a relatively new population-based algorithm for solving complex optimization problems. In the algorithm, employed bees look for food sources and share the information with onlooker bees, who then choose a food source to exploit. Scout bees conduct random searches to discover new food. The positions of food sources represent possible solutions to an optimization problem. The ABC algorithm has fewer control parameters, a simpler structure, and more convincing performance than other methods, so it has been widely applied in fields such as data mining and vehicle routing. “However, it takes many iterations to obtain a solution,” explains Yuki Todo from the Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering at Kanazawa University, “thus, it performs well in exploration but poorly in exploitation.”

Therefore, the researchers developed a novel scale-free mechanism to guide the search of the ABC algorithm and verified its performance using real-world problems. They analyzed how the network properties of a scale-free network, namely, the power law distribution and low degree-degree correlation coefficient, influence the optimization process. In each iteration, employed bees (or onlooker bees) were placed onto the nodes of the scale-free network according to the quality of their food sources. Employed bees with high-quality food sources were relocated to high-degree nodes and employed bees with relatively low-quality food sources were relocated to low-degree nodes. Using these rules, the power law distribution property made low-quality employed bees more likely to connect with high-quality employed bees.

The scale-free mechanism enables each employed bee to learn more effective information from its neighbors, which improves the exploitation ability of the ABC algorithm. Because the low degree-degree correlation coefficient property can control the information exchange among high-quality employed bees, it stops the information of these bees from taking over the whole population quickly. This helps to maintain population diversity and avoids the problem of the population converging too early.

“During the optimization process, the scale-free ABC algorithm obtains a better balance between exploration and exploitation,” says Junkai Ji from the Faculty of Engineering at the University of Toyama, “and also enhances the search ability of other iterative approaches, such as the flower pollination algorithm.”

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