Quantcast
Channel: Eurasia Review
Viewing all 73339 articles
Browse latest View live

Bicycle Thefts In Berlin Marks The End Of Merkel’s Rule – OpEd

0
0

Bicycles are a universal cheap easy simple form of transportation for local city traffic, and also best for preventing air pollution, and an exhaust free solution to reduce atmosphere contamination. Berlin is a paradise for cyclists, a perfect environment with bike lanes everywhere. There are local bike trails with total sum exceeding 650km within the urban city limits. Almost all the streets are smooth, with no ups and downs, no slopes. Bikers can pass long distances with cheap fare Sbahn, Ubahn metro tickets from one end to the other end of the city. Berlin has approximately a a 3.3 million population, whereas there are almost 2 million bikes in the city.

In a business daytime there are almost 500 thousand bikes in the daily traffic. Bikes contribute 13% of local transportation. There are “bike priority” roads. There were approximately 8,000 bicycle accidents in year 2017. Most of the accidents occur in the right turn of traffic lights, where cars turn right and collide with bikes going in a straight direction. The sudden opening of car doors may also create bike accidents. Fast young bikers may create dangerous situations for slow, old age bikers.

Your writer had hard times due to fast cyclists passing from both sides in a narrow bike lane last summer. There are strict cycling rules in Berlin. You will wear safety helmet. You will go from right hand side of the road in bike lane. You must not use your iPhone ever and you must stop at red lights – otherwise to pay a 100€ fine (we know, since we paid once). Cyclists driving in the reverse direction also create danger for sure.

There is a serious number of bike thefts in Berlin, almost 100 thefts per day as of year 2017, with the rate set to  increase each following year. Statistics reveals that only 5% of theft are found. Last week our bike was stolen. It was locked on an electric pole in front of our house with two strong chain locks. Thieves has used chain saw. You have no chance to stop a thief with an electric chain saw, which can be purchased at nearest Bauhous shop for 50€. Last year we bought that bike for 1,000€. It was a latest design with light weight.

Amsterdam, Praque and Rome are the worst in terms of bike theft. Stolen bikes are not sold in second hand open markets since penalties are too high, so bikes are transported to eastern European countries for reselling. Bike thefts have increased with incoming migrant floods. Thieves are mostly migrants or east Europeans. The Berlin police have reacted harshly to bike thieves, with publicly beatings on the street when caught, without caring about negative publicity.

Votes for the Neo-Nazi right wing political party Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) increases with migrant inflow. AfD has huge success in Eastern Germany, due to increase in unemployment, increase in migrants. If AfD will have any partnership in ruling in future, it will be due to Merkel’s optimistic, soft immigration policies, which increased unemployment, street crime and bike thefts. Angela Merkel is leaving public office and won’t run in the next general elections.

There are all types of theft increases. Our simple cheap door mat was stolen, which was bought the cheap for 4€ from nearest Bauhous.

My red Peugeot bike was purchased in 1965 as a 9th grade high school summer present. After 10 years of riding, it was stolen from my balcony, since it was not locked properly, I felt relatively safe in a plant guest house — and yet, the thief stole my precious childhood toy. That instance taught me not to rely on any loose situation, never leave any article on street, whatever tough locks we have.

When you face a bike theft, don’t worry too much. Feel that it is the time to buy a new better design bike. Decathlon market sells new design bikes for 159€. They are light weight, with no batteries to push. You get better health while riding your bike. You should never leave your bike on the street at night. You better keep your bike indoors, in your cellar, or at your balcony. There is no way, no safety caution you can protect your bike on the street.

Berlin’s outside temperature is around -1C these days in December. It is too cold. Street bikers are relatively in less numbers, however there are people with protective clothing to ride bikes in daytime traffic. New year fairgrounds are installed in public places, there are lots of junk food to eat, hot traditional wine and local beer service accompanied with loud pop music until midnight.


Iranian Speaker Says US Call For Talks Insincere

0
0

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani decried the US call for negotiations with Iran as insincere, saying Washington should first make up for the violation of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

Asked about the US president’s expression of readiness for talks with Iran without preconditions, Larijani said at a press conference in Tehran on Monday that Donald Trump makes paradoxical comments about Iran.

The US president has insulted the Iranian nation and made inglorious remarks about Iran, Larijani deplored, adding that Trump has at the same time voiced readiness for negotiations with Tehran.

“Haven’t we already negotiated? When a country breaches an international agreement (the JCPOA)… how would it demand negotiations?” the Iranian speaker said, describing the US call for talks as a tactic that lacks genuineness.

Asked about Iran’s stance on fresh talks with the US, Larijani said the situation is not currently prepared for negotiations, adding that the US seeks to entertain the world but Iran is not seeking “masquerade diplomacy.”

If the US is really after negotiations, it should make up for what it has violated by withdrawing from the JCPOA and show goodwill, the Iranian speaker underlined.

As regards Europe’s commitment to the nuclear deal and whether or not Iran would remain in the JCPOA, Larijani said, “The Europeans were insisting that Iran should not withdraw from the deal and made commitments, but did not honor their commitments.”

He said Iranian diplomats are still negotiating with Europe on the fate of the JCPOA.

On May 8, Trump pulled his country out of the JCPOA, which was achieved in 2015 after years of negotiations among Iran and the Group 5+1 (Russia, China, the US, Britain, France and Germany).

Following the US exit, Iran and the remaining parties launched talks to save the accord.

In comments in August, Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei roundly dismissed the idea of negotiations with the US, saying dialogue with a bullying regime that uses talks as a tool for pursuing its hostile policies is forbidden and would be detrimental to Iran.

Trump Boasts Of Relations With Xi, New Trade Deal With China

0
0

By Ken Bredemeier

U.S. President Donald Trump boasted Monday of his “very strong and personal relationship” with Chinese President Xi Jinping, declaring a new U.S.-China trade deal would immediately allow American farmers to sell more of their products to Beijing.

Stock markets in Asia and Europe jumped sharply after Trump and Xi, as leaders of the world’s two biggest economies, agreed Saturday in Argentina to not impose any new tariffs on each other’s exports for the next 90 days while they negotiate a detailed trade agreement.

U.S. stock indexes also opened sharply higher in New York at the start of a new work week.

“My meeting in Argentina with President Xi of China was an extraordinary one,” Trump said on Twitter. “Relations with China have taken a BIG leap forward! Very good things will happen.”

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the United States won Chinese commitments to buy more than $1 trillion in American products.

The United States had a $335.4 billion trade deficit with China in 2017. Trump said, however, “We are dealing from great strength, but China likewise has much to gain if and when a deal is completed. Level the field!”

The U.S. leader said U.S. farmers “will be a very BIG and FAST beneficiary of our deal with China. They intend to start purchasing agricultural product immediately. We make the finest and cleanest product in the World, and that is what China wants. Farmers, I LOVE YOU!”

Late Sunday, Trump tweeted that “China has agreed to reduce and remove tariffs on cars coming into China from the U.S. Currently the tariff is 40 percent.” On Monday, however, Kudlow said there was an “assumption” that China would eliminate auto tariffs, not a specific agreement.

Also Monday, China’s ministry of foreign affairs said the Chinese and U.S. presidents had agreed to work toward removing all tariffs.

Trump said he and Xi “are the only two people that can bring about massive and very positive change, on trade and far beyond, between our two great Nations. A solution for North Korea is a great thing for China and ALL!”

Trump, at his political rallies and news conferences, often praises the increase in U.S. military spending during his nearly two years in the White House.

But he tweeted that “at some time in the future,” Xi, Russian President Vladimir Putin of Russia, and he “will start talking about a meaningful halt to what has become a major and uncontrollable Arms Race. The U.S. spent 716 Billion Dollars this year. Crazy!”

The 90-day truce in the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China came during a dinner meeting between the two presidents following the G-20 summit of the world’s biggest economies in Buenos Aires. For months, Trump and Xi have engaged in tit-for-tat increases in tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of exports flowing between the two countries.

Trump, speaking to reporters on Air Force One after the plane departed Argentina, said his agreement with Xi will go down “as one of the largest deals ever made. … And it’ll have an incredibly positive impact on farming, meaning agriculture, industrial products, computers — every type of product.”

Trump agreed he will leave the tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese products at 10 percent, and not raise it to 25 percent as he has threatened to do January 1, according to a White House statement.

“China will agree to purchase a not yet agreed upon, but very substantial, amount of agricultural, energy, industrial and other product from the United States to reduce the trade imbalance between our two countries,” said White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders. “China has agreed to start purchasing agricultural product from our farmers immediately.”

Trump and Xi also agreed to immediately begin negotiations on structural changes with respect to forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft, services and agriculture, according to the White House statement.

“Both parties agree that they will endeavor to have this transaction completed within the next 90 days. If at the end of this period of time, the parties are unable to reach an agreement, the 10 percent tariffs will be raised to 25 percent,” the statement said.

Early Clinical Trial Data Show Gene Therapy Reversing Sickle Cell Anemia

0
0

After over a decade of preclinical research and development, a new gene therapy treatment for Sickle Cell Anemia (SCA) is reversing disease symptoms in two adults and showing early potential for transportability to resource-challenged parts of the world where SCA is most common.

Preliminary data from a pilot Phase 1-2 clinical trial testing the gene-addition therapy were presented Dec. 3 at the American Society of Hematology’s (ASH) annual meeting in San Diego by principal investigator Punam Malik, MD. She is a physician-scientist at the Cincinnati Children’s Cancer and Blood Diseases Institute and director of its Comprehensive Sickle Cell Center. Malik called the data promising.

“One year after treatment of our first patient, and six months after treatment of our second patient, both have seen a remarkable improvement in the quality of life due to remarkable reduction in disease symptoms. This includes near elimination of chronic pain and sickling events and improved anemia,” Malik said. “Although it’s still early post-treatment, these preliminary results are quite promising. If sustained this therapy will provide a transportable, safe and feasible gene therapy for all SCA patients.”

SCA is a painful, inherited disease where blood cells become sickle-shaped and stuck in the vascular system. It can damage vital organs and cause death.

How the Therapy Works

The gene therapy developed by Cincinnati Children’s uses a modified gamma globin lentivirus vector to transfer a healthy fetal hemoglobin gene into a patient’s blood stem cells (hematopoietic stem cells, HSC). The lentivirus is modified so it does not cause illness.

The therapy comes from the observation that some adults never stop producing fetal hemoglobin (HbF). This prevents red blood cell sickling when sufficient quantities of HbF are present in the body.

Normally, the fetal hemoglobin gene switches off shortly after birth. The new gene therapy approach designed by Malik and team places a fetal hemoglobin gene in the bone marrow cells that cannot switch off.

Cells are collected earlier from the SCA patient and genetically reprogrammed in a clean lab facility with the modified lentivirus vector. Then the patient’s bone marrow is preconditioned with one low-dose of chemotherapy, after which the gene-corrected cells are infused back into the patient. Patients recover their blood counts within a week to 10 days and recover from the chemotherapy effects by two weeks, Malik said.

A key feature of the treatment regimen is the reduced-intensity preconditioning for patients receiving the therapy for SCA. The method is less toxic and expensive than myeloablative preconditioning normally used in bone marrow transplants, according to the researchers.

Myeloablative conditioning uses high-intensity chemotherapy to prepare a transplant patient’s bone marrow for healthy gene-corrected blood stem cells (HSCs). This typically results in low blood counts and other side effects. These can include severe infections and long stays in transplant units for one or two months.

This means transplants using myeloablative conditioning have to be performed at large and sophisticated medical centers in developed parts of the world. Malik said this limits access to people in underdeveloped regions where SCA is more common, like Africa, India, the Caribbean and South America.

Reaching High-Need Regions

One goal for Malik and her colleagues is that their therapy’s reduced intensity conditioning will allow it to be offered at hospitals in places like Central Africa and other underdeveloped regions of the world.

SCA affects more than 90,000 people in the United States, and millions of people worldwide have the disease, according to the researchers.

Malik said additional data from the study will tell investigators of the consistent and long-term clinical benefit of this therapy to patients with severe SCA. The trial is scheduled to treat up to 10 patients with SCA. Preclinical studies by the research team suggested the treatment allows the body to produce normal red blood cells instead of the sickle-shaped cells that define the inherited disorder.

Improved Quality of Life

Both adult patients included in the ASH presentation are 35 and 25 years old who, respectively, had gene transfer therapy 15 and 12 months ago. In the year and a half prior to receiving gene-correction therapy, both patients had more than a dozen acute sickle events per year, according to Malik. These included acute chest and pain crises, chronic pain, and required the ongoing use of oral or injectable opioids on a regular basis.

Investigators report that one year following therapy, the first patient no longer requires daily oral opioids for chronic pain and has had one acute sickle cell event. The second patient no longer uses oral opioids and has no vaso-occlusive events, where blood cells become stuck in the vascular system.

Qatar’s Exit From OPEC To Have ‘No Major Impact’ On Oil Prices – Analysis

0
0

By Rebecca Spong

Qatar’s decision to exit OPEC next month is unlikely to have a significant impact on the oil group’s structure or on short-term oil prices, according to analysts.

The Gulf country announced on Monday it would leave OPEC from Jan. 1 2019. It plans to attend the next meeting of the group due to take place in Vienna on Dec. 6.

The move is viewed as “symbolic” and reflects deepening regional divisions, market commentators said. Qatar has been under a trade embargo imposed by a Saudi Arabia-led group of Arab states since last June, following accusations that the country was fueling regional instability and funding terrorism.

“Qatar’s decision to exit OPEC will have no major impact on the cartel’s decision-making process, oil output or oil prices in the short term,” said Abhishek Kumar, senior energy analyst at Interfax Energy in London.

“Qatar is one of OPEC’s smallest oil producers, and its upstream strategy has revolved around natural gas production,” he said.

Qatar produces around 600,000 barrels of crude oil per day compared with the near 10 million barrels a day produced by Saudi Arabia, according to data from 2017. Qatar is the 11th-largest producer out of 15 members in OPEC and accounts for less than 2 percent of the oil group’s output.

“The move is highly symbolic — Qatar has been a member of OPEC since 1961. But we doubt that it will have a major bearing on global energy markets,” read a note from Jason Tuvey, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics on Monday.

Rejecting suggestions the decision was politically motivated, Qatar’s energy ministry said on Monday that it wanted to focus more on gas production.

“In the next few months we will be announcing several major projects. Our goal in this strategy was to remain focused on our core business and activities to enhance Qatar’s international standing as the world’s leading natural gas producer,” the ministry said.

Analysts said that the departure could have implications for regional politics. “Although Qatar has dismissed suggestions that its exit from OPEC was driven by geopolitics, the move could deepen tensions in the Middle East,” said Kumar.

“Qatar leaving OPEC can be seen as Saudis consolidating their influence within the cartel. Meanwhile, Iran’s economy is set to face further headwinds because of sanctions imposed by the US, which has the potential to ratchet up tensions in the Middle East,” he said.

Ehsan Khoman, head of MENA research and strategy at MUFG, based in Dubai, questioned the timing of the exit and suggested Qatar might look to increase oil production just as the oil cartel is due to cut production.

“More importantly is the timing of Qatar’s withdrawal — just three days before OPEC meets in Vienna to finalize the production cuts. This suggests that Qatar may have an agenda to raise production while others in OPEC are curbing production, although Qatar’s oil output has been steady in recent years with limited prospects of increases — given maturing fields,” he said in a research note.

OPEC is due to announce cuts to oil production this week in Vienna in an effort to stabilize the market and counter a potential glut in supply. This could push up Brent oil prices to the mid-$60 per barrel level, Khoman said.

Qatar’s economy has been fairly resilient in the face of the embargo, said analysts. “The economy has defied the expectations of some analysts that the blockade would lead to recession,” said Tuvey.

What Did The G20 Summit Really Achieve? – OpEd

0
0

By Cornelia Meyer*

G20 leaders gathered in Buenos Aires amid tensions and differences. There was the Russian seizure of ships in the Sea of Azov, trade tensions, conflicting views on climate change and other issues.

The drama started before the summit. Donald Trump canceled his meeting with Vladimir Putin, and Angela Merkel’s arrival was delayed because the German Air Force could not get her official aircraft to work properly.

Still it was a relatively harmonious summit and all leaders, including Trump, were on their best behavior. They managed to issue a communique without the US leader issuing his customary dissenting opinion. That in itself was a success. The communique refrained from a blanket endorsement of free trade, instead opting to call for reform of the World Trade Organization. While this may be disappointing for most leaders who wholeheartedly endorse the global free trading regime, it was probably the only possible compromise, given the current occupant of the White House.

The most awaited event was the post-summit dinner between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump had threatened to ramp up existing tariffs of 10 percent on $200 million of goods to 25 percent, as well as potentially levying tariffs on a further $265 million of Chinese imports. This spooked the markets, which had been on a volatile downward trajectory since October.

Trump agreed on a moratorium of 90 days, leaving the existing 10 percent tariff in place but postponing hikes or expansions. In exchange, the Chinese leader agreed to buy significant quantities from the US agricultural, energy and industrial sectors. China also promised to give anti-trust approval to the important acquisition of the Dutch semiconductor manufacturer NXP by Qualcomm, which had been withheld so far. Importantly there were conversations regarding intellectual property and investors’ rights in China. Markets lapped it up and rallied on Monday morning, both in Asia and in Europe.

This may all sound good, but the two leaders have not averted danger but merely kicked the can down the road and given their negotiators breathing space. Ninety days is not a long time to come up with an overall trade agreement.

Markets were right in their initial reaction, though: Let us not forget that Trump’s proposal would have resulted in significant inflation of the US supply chain, which would have been passed on to consumers and adversely affected the terms of trade of US goods.

While it may be nice to have some respite over the holiday season, the underlying danger that America’s tough trade talk might undermine the international trading system has not dissipated.

The second achievement of the G20 summit was less noticed, but will probably be more enduring. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Vladimir Putin agreed to continue their cooperation on the OPEC+ stage where 10 countries lead by Russia work with OPEC in order to balance the oil markets. The next OPEC meeting takes place later this week in Vienna. OPEC+ has its work cut out. It will need to agree to take barrels off the market to avert a supply glut.

For observers this is a deja vu moment reminiscent of December 2016 when the 24 countries coordinated for the first time and subsequently managed to eliminate the inventories overhang over time. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih, and his Russian counterpart, Alexander Novak, have worked tirelessly since then trying to institutionalize a framework agreement. We can probably expect an announcement within the week.

* Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert. Twitter: @MeyerResources.

Ron Paul: Trump Foreign Policy, Doing the Same Thing And Expecting A Different Result – OpEd

0
0

After a week of insisting that a meeting with Putin on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Argentina was going to happen, President Trump at the last minute sent out a Tweet explaining that due to a Russia/Ukraine dispute in the Sea of Azov he would no longer be willing to meet his Russian counterpart.

According to Trump, the meeting had to be cancelled because the Russians seized three Ukrainian naval vessels in Russian waters that refused to follow instructions from the Russian military. But as Pat Buchanan wrote in a recent column: how is this little dispute thousands of miles away any of our business?

Unfortunately it is “our business” because of President Obama’s foolish idea to overthrow a democratically-elected, pro-Russia government in Ukraine in favor of what his Administration believed would be a “pro-Western” and “pro-NATO” replacement. In short, the Obama Administration did openly to Ukraine what his Democratic Party claims without proof the Russians did to the United States: meddled in a vote.

US interventionism in Ukraine led to the 2014 coup and many dead Ukrainians. Crimea’s majority-Russian population held a referendum and decided to re-join Russia rather than remain in a “pro-West” Ukraine that immediately began discriminating against them. Why would anyone object to people opting out of abusive relationships?

What is most disappointing about President Trump’s foreign policy is that it didn’t have to be this way. He ran on a platform of America first, ending foreign wars, NATO skepticism, and better relations with Russia. Americans voted for this policy. He had a mandate, a rejection of Obama’s destructive interventionism.

But he lost his nerve.

Instead of being the president who ships lethal weapons to the Ukrainian regime, instead of being the president who insists that Crimea remain in Ukraine, instead of being the president who continues policies the American people clearly rejected at the ballot box, Trump could have blamed the Ukraine/Russia mess on the failed Obama foreign policy and charted a very different course. What flag flies over Crimea is none of our business. We are not the policemen of the world and candidate Trump seemed to have understood that.

But now Trump’s in a trap. He was foolish enough to believe that Beltway foreign policy “experts” have a clue about what really is American national interest. Just this week he told the Washington Post, in response to three US soldiers being killed by a roadside bomb in Afghanistan, that he has to keep US troops fighting in the longest war in US history because the “experts” tell him there is no alternative.

He said, “virtually every expert that I have and speak to say if we don’t go there, they’re going to be fighting over here. And I’ve heard it over and over again.”

That is the same bunkum the neocons sold us as they lied us into Iraq! We’ve got to fight Saddam over there or he’d soon be in our streets. These “experts” are worthless, yet for some reason President Trump cannot break free of them.

Well here’s some unsolicited advice to the president: Listen to the people who elected you, who are tired of the US as the world’s police force. Let Ukraine and Russia work out their own problems. Give all your “experts” a pink slip and start over with a real pro-American foreign policy: non-interventionism.

This article was published by RonPaul Institute.

Undercover Investigation: Socio-Economic Survey Of Pangolin Hunting In Assam, India

0
0

Alarming footage captured by World Animal Protection and the Wildlife Conservation Research Unit (WildCRU) at University of Oxford reveals the heart-breaking moment a pangolin is brutally killed for its body parts to be sold on the black market in Assam, north-eastern India.

The footage was captured by an undercover researcher on their mobile phone, and shows a terrified pangolin hiding from hunters in a hollowed-out tree clinging for life, as its tail is tugged. The hunters use axes to cut the tree, but failing to remove the desperate animal, they light a fire to smoke it out. As the pangolin starts to suffocate and lose consciousness it makes a bolt for freedom but is captured, bagged and taken to a hut where the next stage of the ordeal takes place. The pangolin is repeatedly bludgeoned with a machete until it can barely move. While bleeding, it is then thrown into a cauldron of boiling water possibly still alive, where its tragic struggle comes to an end.

Pangolins are often referred to as the world’s most trafficked mammal and this footage demonstrates the huge cruelty the animals endure when hunted. The harrowing clip is part of a two-year study, conducted by researchers from World Animal Protection and the University of Oxford, into traditional hunting practices in the state of Assam, that borders Bhutan. The study is published in the open-access journal Nature Conservation.

Interviews conducted by researchers with over 140 local hunters found that pangolins were largely targeted for their scales that are sold for a premium, with hunters earning the equivalent of four months’ average salary for a single pangolin. The hunters from these communities were clearly unaware of the part they are playing in the international trafficking trade. Yet the illegal traders that then sell the animal products across the borders on the black market go on to make a large profit.

Pangolin scales are used in traditional Asian medicine particularly in China and Vietnam. They are made of keratin, the same material that makes human fingernails and hair, and they have no proven medicinal value. Pangolin meat is also considered to be a delicacy in some countries, and the scales are also used as decorations for rituals and jewellery. They are considered to be at high risk of extinction primarily as a result of illegal poaching.

Dr Neil D’Cruze, Global Wildlife Advisor at World Animal Protection and lead researcher said:

“Suffocated with smoke, beaten and boiled alive – this is a terrifying ordeal and pangolins clearly suffer immensely.

“This footage shines a spotlight on how truly shocking the practice of hunting pangolins truly is. Not only is this a major conservation issue – it’s a devastating animal welfare concern. If we want to protect pangolins from pain and suffering in the countries they come from, we need to tackle the illegal poaching trade”

Professor David Macdonald, WildCRU, Department of Zoology, Oxford University said:

“Increasing demand driven by traditional Asian medicine is making pangolins a lucrative catch. It’s easy to see why they are being commercially exploited, as scales from just one pangolin can offer a life changing sum of money for people in these communities, but it’s in no way sustainable. Wild pangolin numbers are beginning to plummet.”

Reliable estimates of how many pangolins remain in the wild are lacking, although it is thought that over a million individual pangolins were taken from the wild between 2000, and 2013. There are eight species of pangolin, all of which are considered threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species.

World Animal Protection works tirelessly to prevent cruelty to animals around the world. Although it is well documented that pangolins are being hunted and trafficked, until now, the immense suffering and cruelty that these animals endure when they are hunted has remained relatively overlooked.

To combat the global trade in their bodies and scales, and to protect pangolins from the unimaginable suffering they endure World Animal Protection is calling for:

– Strong enforcement of national and international laws;

– Removal of pangolins from the Pharmacopoeia of the People’s Republic of China – the traditional medicine handbook for the industry;

– Investment in and promotion of herbal and synthetic alternatives;

– Combined and coordinated efforts by governments, NGOs and the traditional Asian medicine community to eliminate consumer demand for pangolin-based traditional Asian medicines, particularly in China and Vietnam;

– Support for alternative livelihoods, alleviation of poverty and education programmes within rural communities wherever pangolins are found globally, to stop the slaughter.


As Married Couples Age, Humor Replaces Bickering

0
0

Honeymoon long over? Hang in there. A new University of California, Berkeley, study shows those prickly disagreements that can mark the early and middle years of marriage mellow with age as conflicts give way to humor and acceptance.

Researchers analyzed videotaped conversations between 87 middle-aged and older husbands and wives who had been married for 15 to 35 years, and tracked their emotional interactions over the course of 13 years. They found that as couples aged, they showed more humor and tenderness towards another.

Overall, the findings, just published in the journal Emotion, showed an increase in such positive behaviors as humor and affection and a decrease in negative behaviors such as defensiveness and criticism. The results challenge long-held theories that emotions flatten or deteriorate in old age and point instead to an emotionally positive trajectory for long-term marrried couples.

“Our findings shed light on one of the great paradoxes of late life,” said study senior author Robert Levenson, a UC Berkeley psychology professor. “Despite experiencing the loss of friends and family, older people in stable marriages are relatively happy and experience low rates of depression and anxiety. Marriage has been good for their mental health.”

Consistent with previous findings from Levenson’s Berkeley Psychophysiology Laboratory, the longitudinal study found that wives were more emotionally expressive than their husbands, and as they grew older they tended toward more domineering behavior and less affection. But generally, across all the study’s age and gender cohorts, negative behaviors decreased with age.

“Given the links between positive emotion and health, these findings underscore the importance of intimate relationships as people age, and the potential health benefits associated with marriage,” said co-lead author Alice Verstaen, who conducted the study as a Ph.D. student at UC Berkeley and is currently a postdoctoral fellow at the VA Puget Sound Health Care System.

The results are the latest to emerge from a 25-year UC Berkeley study headed by Levenson of more than 150 long-term marriages. The participants, now mostly in their 70s, 80s and 90s, are heterosexual couples from the San Francisco Bay Area whose relationships Levenson and fellow researchers began tracking in 1989.

In their investigation of marital relationships, researchers viewed 15-minute interactions between spouses in a laboratory setting as they discussed shared experiences and areas of conflict. They tracked the emotional changes every few years.

The spouses’ listening and speaking behaviors were coded and rated according to their facial expressions, body language, verbal content and tone of voice. Emotions were coded into the categories of anger, contempt, disgust, domineering behavior, defensiveness, fear, tension, sadness, whining, interest, affection, humor, enthusiasm and validation.

Researchers found that both middle-aged and older couples, regardless of their satisfaction with their relationship, experienced increases in overall positive emotional behaviors with age, while experiencing a decrease in overall negative emotional behaviors.

“These results provide behavioral evidence that is consistent with research suggesting that, as we age, we become more focused on the positives in our lives,” Verstaen said.

Afghanistan: Suicide Offensive – Analysis

0
0

By Ajit Kumar Singh*

On November 28, 2018, at least 10 people were killed and another 29 injured in a suicide attack in Kabul City (District), the national capital.

On November 23, 2018, at least 10 soldiers of the 2nd Regiment of the Afghan National Army (ANA) were killed in a suicide attack that targeted soldiers inside a mosque at their base in the Mandozai District of Khost Province. Another 15 soldiers were injured in the explosion.

On November 20, 2018, at least 55 people were killed and 94 injured in a suicide bombing conducted inside the Uranus Wedding Hall in Kabul City.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 822 people have died in 64 suicide attacks across Afghanistan in the current year (data till November 30, 2018). There were 613 fatalities in 52 such attacks through 2017; and 503 fatalities in 43 incidents in 2016.

According to the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict: Annual Report 2017 2017 had already recorded the highest number of civilian casualties (both in terms of deaths and injuries separately) caused by suicide attacks in Afghanistan since 2009, when United Nations Assistance Mission’s (UNAMA) started documenting civilian fatalities in Afghanistan. According to the report, there were 2,295 civilian casualties (605 deaths and 1,690 injuries) due to suicide attacks in 2017. The previous highest of number of deaths (488) was recorded in 2011, while previous highest of injuries (1,565) were reported in 2016.

Casualties in suicide attacks have been on the rise since 2009, with the exception of years 2010, 2012, and 2013. According to latest quarterly report by Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict released on October 10, 2018, between January 1, 2018, and September 30, 2018, there have been 2,243 civilian casualties (714 deaths and 1,629 injuries) in suicide attacks.

Significantly, as SAIR noted earlier, despite 30 years of warfare, Afghanistan had never experienced a suicide attack until September 9, 2001, when the Northern Alliance Commander Ahmad Shah Masood was assassinated at Khwaja Bahauddin in Takhar Province by two Arab al Qaeda suicide bombers. With this event, Afghanistan was thrust into a new chapter of armed conflict.

Civilian Deaths and Injuries in Suicide Attacks in Afghanistan: 2009-2017. Source: UNAMA
Civilian Deaths and Injuries in Suicide Attacks in Afghanistan: 2009-2017. Source: UNAMA

According to partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM) from media reports, Afghanistan witnessed 421 incidents of suicide attacks between September 9, 2001, and December 31, 2008, resulting in 1,231 fatalities. Thereafter, between January 1, 2009, and September 30, 2018, UNAMA has recorded more than 654 suicide attacks resulting in 14,248 casualties 3,274 deaths and 10,974 injuries). [No. of suicide attacks for year 2009 and 2018 is not available]

Neighbouring Pakistan, which is primarily responsible for the consistently deteriorating security scenario in Afghanistan, remains the principal source of the continuing menace of suicide attacks. According to a report titled Suicide Attacks in Afghanistan (2001-2007) released by UNAMA on September 1, 2007,

…While suicide attackers elsewhere in the world tend not to be poor and uneducated, Afghanistan’s attackers appear to be young, uneducated and often drawn from madaris across the border in Pakistan… The tribal areas of Pakistan remain an important source of human and material assistance for suicide attacks in Afghanistan…

The report also disclosed,

…Considerable dispute persists over the identity of the attackers, with some analysts contending that they are now overwhelmingly Afghan, even if foreigners such as Arabs and Pakistanis were involved in the early attacks. Others still insist that the attackers are foreigners or Afghans who have spent much of their lives in Pakistan… President Hamid Karzai [the then President], as well as Afghan intelligence and other Afghan authorities, have tended to claim that the attackers originate from Pakistan with the implications that they are Pakistanis…

The evidence of involvement continues to crop up. Referring to a spate of suicide attacks in January 2018 Mohammad Stanekzai, the head of Afghanistan’s spy agency, National Directorate of Security (NDS) on February 1, 2018, categorically stated on February 1, 2018, “We asked Pakistan to hand over the culprits of the attacks in Afghanistan and we shared undeniable evidence that the attacks were planned there”. More recently, on October 23, 2018, President Ashraf Ghani observed, “I want to say that this conspiracy was plotted in Pakistan. So Pakistan should give us the criminals so that we can bring them to justice.” He was referring to the killing of Kandahar Police Commander Gen. Abdul Raziq in Kandahar City (District), the capital of Kandahar Province, on October 18, 2018.

The principal architect of the initial upsurge of suicide attacks was senior Taliban ‘commander’ Mullah Dadullah aka Dadullah Akhund, who targeted Afghan and Western troops in Southern Afghanistan. Though Dadullah was killed in a raid by International Security Assistance Force troops in Kandahar City on May 12, 2007, the trend of suicide bombings continues to terrorise Afghanistan. The Taliban remains the primary player. According to UNAMA’s latest quarterly report released on October 10, 2018,

…From 1 January to 30 September 2018, Anti-Government Elements caused 5,243 civilian casualties (1,743 deaths and 3,500 injured), accounting for 65 per cent of all civilian casualties, approximately the same as in the first nine months of 2017. Of the 65 per cent of civilian casualties attributed to Anti-Government Elements, 35 per cent were attributed to Taliban, 25 per cent to Daesh/ISKP, and five per cent to unidentified Anti Government Elements (including less than one per cent to self-proclaimed Daesh/ISKP)…

There were a total of 2,798 deaths in Afghanistan during this period.

It has long been established that Taliban’s survival primarily depends on Pakistan’s continuing support and provision of safe havens. Indeed, Mullah Rahmatullah Kakazada, a senior diplomat under the Taliban regime, according to a November 29, 2016, report, had categorically stated, “If we left Pakistan we would not survive one week”. He was responding to a report that said Syed Mohammad Tayyab Agha, the former head of the Taliban’s Qatar office, in letter to Mullah Akhundzada had said, “to be able to make independent decisions, you, the members of our leadership council, and heads of our various commissions, should leave Pakistan.” Way back in 2010, one of the Taliban’s southern ‘commanders’ (name not disclosed) in an interview had stated,

If anyone rejects that the ISI [Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan’s external intelligence agency] backs or controls the Taliban, he has a mental problem… all our plans and strategy are made in Pakistan and step by step it is brought to us, for military operations or other activities. Pakistan [the ISI] does not have only one representative on the Quetta Shura, they have representatives everywhere… The reality is that the ISI controls the leadership…

No respite from suicide bombings in particular and terror attacks at large inside Afghanistan is likely in the foreseeable future, as there is no evidence on the ground to suggest that Pakistan is going to give up its policy of exporting terror into its neighbourhood. On the contrary, with Imran Khan assuming the office of Prime Minister in August 2018, there is a high probability of the Taliban gaining more support from Islamabad. Khan has strong links with the Afghan Taliban, and a close relationship with the Pakistan Army, and there is likely to be a complete unity of purpose on Islamabad’s strategy of disruption in Afghanistan.

*Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

India-Maldives: Relations On Again – Analysis

0
0

By Anurag Sharma*

On November 26, 2018, the Maldives’ Minister of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) Abdullah Shahid, after his meeting with India’s External Affairs Minister (EAM) Sushma Swaraj, tweeted, “A new era of enhanced cooperation emerging in Maldives-India relationship under President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih”. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) Spokesperson Raveesh Kumar had, earlier in the day, tweeted, “Harmonious synergy of India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ & Maldives’ ‘India First’ policy”.

The two foreign ministers, meanwhile, during the meeting agreed that the State Visit of Maldives’ newly elected President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih to India would take place on December 17, 2018.

According to the November 26, 2018, Press Release of India’s Ministry of External Affairs,

EAM [Sushma Swaraj]… stated that “India stands ready to fully support the Government of Maldives in its Socio-Economic development. FM [Maldives’ MoFA] Abdulla Shahid reiterated his Government’s “India First” policy and… reiterated that the government of Maldives will be sensitive towards India’s Security and Strategic concerns. The Ministers discussed security and defence matters including on-going projects and new areas of cooperation. In this regard, they agreed to hold the next meeting of the ‘Defence Cooperation Dialogue’ between both countries in the first half of December 2018.

MoFA Abdullah Shahid had come to India on an official Ministerial visit between November 24-27, 2018, and was accompanied by three other Maldivian Ministers: Minister of Finance, Minister of Economic Development and Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, as well as the Foreign Secretary.

Earlier, on November 18, 2018, within 24-hours of the Presidential Oath ceremony of the newly elected Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, the Maldives’ new Defence Minister Mariya Didi, confirmed that the Maldives has no intentions to return the two helicopters which were gifted by India upon request from the Maldives, stating, “It is not our culture to ask neighbours [referring to India] to take back what they give.”

In April 2010, India had handed over the first Naval helicopter – ‘Kurangi’, primarily meant for medical evacuations. Since its induction (2010) to the Maldives military, the aircraft had conducted 69 medical evacuations and saved 73 lives, the Indian High Commission had disclosed in January 2016. After the signing of an Indo-Maldives Defence Action Plan on April 11, 2016, India gifted a second Advance Light Helicopter (ALH) – ‘Dhruv’ to the Maldives on April 27, 2016, to be used for transporting patients and for Search and Rescue Operations. “Unlike normal helicopters, this one [the second helicopter] is fully air-conditioned and equipped with facilities to identify people at a distance,” the then-Maldivian Defence Minister Adam Shareef Umar had stated.

On November 17, 2018, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had visited Maldives to participate in the Presidential Oath Ceremony. After bilateral talks between Prime Minister Modi and President Solih, a joint press statement reiterated the “resilience of the relations” between the two countries, and stated:

During their meeting, both leaders agreed on the importance of maintaining peace and security in the Indian Ocean and being mindful of each other’s concerns and aspirations for the stability of the region. The two leaders expressed their unwavering commitment and support for increased cooperation in combating terrorism both within the region and elsewhere… Prime Minister Modi assured President Solih of India’s firm commitment in assisting the Maldives to achieve sustainable social and economic development…

According to reports, India was the only country invited at the ‘Head of State or Government’ level at the Presidential Oath ceremony and Indian PM Modi was the first leader that Solih met after becoming President.

Presidential polls were held in The Maldives on September 23, 2018. The Parliamentary leader of the Opposition from the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) party since 2011, Solih secured 58.38 per cent of the votes while his nearest rival candidate and then-incumbent President Abdulla Yameen of the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) secured 41.62 per cent. According to reports, the MDP entered into a coalition with Jumhooree Party (JP), Adhaalath Party (AP) and the Maumoon Reform Movement (MRM) for the 2018 Presidential election.

Former President Mohamed Nasheed decided to relinquish MDP’s Presidential ticket citing concerns that the main opposition party would be left without a candidate in the upcoming Presidential elections in September 2018. The Elections Commission had, on May 22, threatened to dissolve the Maldivian Democratic Party if its presidential primary was conducted with former president Mohamed Nasheed as a candidate. With the withdrawal of Nasheed’s candidature MDP, on June 30, 2018, declared Ibrahim Mohamed Solih as its alternative candidate for the Presidential elections.

India and Maldives enjoyed a very strong bond during the tenure of Maldives’ first democratically elected President, Mohamed Nasheed, between 2008 and 2012. MoUs for a range of power projects were signed in 2009. In December 2010, the Government of India announced a new Line of Credit (LOC) worth USD 40 million to the Government of Maldives for construction of 500 housing units. An agreement on the LOC was signed between the Indian Export-Import Bank and the Government of Maldives on August 12, 2011. During President Nasheed’s visit to India in December 2008, the Government of India extended a Standby Credit Facility of USD 100 million to Maldives. Again, a new Standby Credit Facility of USD 100 million was extended to Maldives during the November 2011 visit of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Malé. On November 12, 2011, a Framework Agreement between the Government of India and Maldives was signed, on among other things,

…to cooperate on issues of concern… which include piracy, maritime security, terrorism, organized crime, drugs and human trafficking… through coordinated patrolling and aerial surveillance, exchange of information, development of effective legal framework and other measures mutually agreed upon. They will intensify their cooperation in the area of training and capacity building of police and security forces.

The bonding has been strong since India was among first countries to recognise Maldives’ independence in 1965.

Nasheed had been forced to resign on February 7, 2012, under the military pressure. He disclosed, on February 8, 2012, “I was forced to resign at gunpoint. There were guns all around me and they told me they wouldn’t hesitate to use them if I didn’t resign.” He claimed the move was planned with the knowledge of the Vice-President Mohammed Waheed Hassan Manik, who replaced him. The role of China and Pakistan in the conspiracy for Nasheed’s ouster has been widely confirmed. Ameen Faisal, Nasheed’s Defence Minister disclosed, “I was the defence minister of Maldives. I know how both China and Pakistan are desperately trying to make inroads here. We are India’s natural allies…” Further Nasheed himself had revealed, “The Maldivian National Defence Force was keen to renew its defence agreement with Beijing. Twice they came to me when I was President. I refused.”

As the Pakistan-China stranglehold on Maldives strengthened, the relationship with New Delhi suffered. In a surprise move on November 27, 2012, the Maldives cabinet annulled the agreement made with India’s GMR Group to operate the Ibrahim Nasir International Airport (INIA) at Hulhule Island near Malé. The USD 500 million contract awarding the airport to the GMR Group for 25 years was signed on June 28, 2010, by the then President Nasheed.

In the November 2013 Presidential elections, Abdulla Yameen defeated Nasheed. Maldives’ drift towards China accelerated. In September 2014, the Ibrahim Nasir International Airport (INIA) project was handed over to China. China made other huge investments. On December 30, 2015, President Abdulla Yameen and Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Gao Yan inaugurated the landmark “China-Maldives Friendship Bridge” project following the signing of a contract with the CCCC Second Harbour Engineering Company. The bridge was opened for traffic on August 30, 2018. On December 8, 2017, Maldives entered into a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China. It was Maldives’ first such treaty with any country. Maldives became only the second South Asian country after Pakistan to sign an FTA with China. According to reports, China has already invested USD 1.5 billion in the Maldives.

The Yameen Government also sought to improve ties with Pakistan. Yameen visited Pakistan in May 2015, the first such visit by a Maldives President in eleven years. Yameen declared,

Time and time again, Pakistan has proven itself to be a loyal friend to the Maldives. I foresee ties being elevated to a higher plane with the conclusion of this State visit. I look forward to a long-lasting partnership that will not only strengthen existing ties but also open up new areas for cooperation and provide mutual benefits to the Maldives and Pakistan.

It is significant that President Nasheed had explicitly blamed Pakistan for emerging terrorism in the Malidives.

Nevertheless, relations with Pakistan improved further under Yameen. Most recently, during Pakistan’s Military chief Qamar Javed Bajwa’s visit to Maldives in March 2018 the two sides “discussed about supporting the Maldives with military training, medical aid and jointly patrolling the Maldivian Exclusive Economic Zones.” In July 2018, the head of the Maldives State Electricity Company (STELCO) visited Pakistan and signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for “cooperation in institution-building activities” in the Maldives. Reacting to the development, an Indian official had argued,

Given its precarious financial situation, Pakistan cannot do much to help the Maldives. But President Yameen is trying his best to reduce Indian footprint and bring in elements hostile to India to undermine Indian influence in the Maldives.

Currently, the Maldives economic situation is in dire straits. According to the South Asia Country Brief report on the Maldives prepared by The World Bank in April 2018, the current account deficit widened sharply from 3.2 percent in 2004 to an estimated 21.4 percent of GDP [Gross Domestic Product] in 2017 due to the rise in investment related-imports. As the Maldives’ economy is based on tourism and fisheries—the complex political situation, weak government institutions, high fiscal deficit and public debt, had an adverse impact on the Maldives. The World Bank report further stated that the vulnerability of the overall debt portfolio, with indebtedness levels at over 60 percent of GDP, is heightened by the short maturity of domestic debt and low reserve coverage. The large volume of external loans and guarantees on non-concessional terms to finance infrastructure projects represent significant risks.

Not surprisingly, Maldives has requested the Indian government for “generous aid” in order to manage the State budget for the coming year. MoFA Abdulla Shahid in an interview on November 25, 2018, had said,

We have an immediate budgetary crisis. We need USD 250-350 million in order to handle the difficult budgetary situation we’re in. We’re left in a situation where the country is facing real hardship. When I meet my counterpart tomorrow, I’m going to share this information. This information was shared with PM Modi immediately after the oath taking ceremony by President Solih. We’re hoping that we will once again be able to get the generous assistance of the India Government.

November 27, 2018, reports quoted Indian government sources as saying, “India will give immediate assistance of USD 25 million to the Maldives [for budgetary stability] and is ready to deliver a Dornier maritime surveillance aircraft to the Maldives. Other aspects of assistance are being worked out.”

Conspicuously, a strong and stable Maldives is essential for India’s security as reports in past had clearly demonstrated that Maldives had been used for anti-India activities. Some Maldivians who spent time in the Pakistan-Afghanistan region had been sent to carry out attacks in India. At least two Maldivian nationals are known to have died fighting in Kashmir in early 2007. The 26/11 Mumbai terrorist attacks also had a Maldivian connection, as conceded by former President Nasheed. In an interview published on October 25, 2009, Nasheed had categorically stated,

I believe that the identity of all the dead terrorists in the Mumbai attacks has not been broken down into nationalities. I feel there is a Maldivian connection to the Mumbai attacks… Any terrorist attack through the underbelly of India, that is peninsular India, would have to go through Maldivian waters. We will be the first to see what is happening. For example, if we had this equipment, we would have been much more vigilant about what was going to happen in the Mumbai attacks… that is why it is essential to safeguard Maldives’ territorial waters and defend our coastline.

Moreover, radicalisation within Maldivian society has been on the rise. Former President Mohamed Nasheed in an interview published on February 25, 2018, had thus warned,

The Maldives is threatened by a religious extremist take over. It is not an exaggeration to say that there is now a parallel state in the Maldives. A state within the state. A network of religious radicals that have infiltrated strategic institutions, the government, and the street gangs. They are ready to overrun the country and impose a radical version of religion upon the Maldivians and tourists alike. President Yameen [Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom] works with this ‘deep state’, but he cannot control it.

Indeed, Andreas Johansson, a senior political scientist attached to Lund University in Sweden, noted in May 2018,

Among the countries that produce recruits to the so-called Islamic State, the Maldives makes one of the highest per capita contributions. There are estimated to be more than 200 Maldivians fighting for IS in Iraq and Syria.

Further, in 2008, Maldives national Ali Assham was deported from Sri Lanka to the Maldives. Ali Assham was allegedly involved with the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) network that had attacked the Indian Institute of Science (IIS) in Bengaluru in 2005. Despite Indian demands, he was never prosecuted and now lives in Malé. In 2009, India’s Intelligence Bureau (IB) had issued a warning that the next big attack on Indian soil could be launched from the Maldives and that this threat necessitated the establishment of a robust coastal security apparatus. The IB had also cautioned that terrorist groups like LeT were trying to infiltrate India’s porous coastline.

The Maldives’ geo-strategic location makes it vulnerable to states and forces that have been relentless in their effort to destabilise India, exploiting the archipelago nation’s precarious socio-political conditions. It is imperative for New Delhi, therefore, to support Malé in this hour of crisis.

*Anurag Sharma
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

Myanmar: Muslims Upset Over Minister’s Comment

0
0

By John Zaw

Myanmar’s Muslim community is dismayed over a government minister’s comment about “extreme religion” when he appeared to refer to Islam.

Religious Affairs and Culture Minister Thura Aung Ko told monks during the funeral of a prominent Buddhist monk in Karen State on Nov. 27 that the followers of an extreme religion take three or four wives and have families with 20 children, while “we Buddhists” practice monogamy and raise families with one or two children.

A Yangon-based Islamic group in the Buddhist-majority country has rejected his use of the word “extreme.”

“We oppose the word no matter which religion he was referring to as it is being used along with faith,” the Society of Enlightening Quranic Knowledge said in a statement on Nov. 28.

Kyaw Nyein, secretary of the Ulama Islam Organization in Yangon, said the comment had prompted concerns among the Muslim community and some people had shown their frustration on Facebook.

He said the Ministry of Religious Affairs had told Muslim leaders that the minister had no intention of referring to any specific religion and was referring to extremists of all religions.

“It is unwise and inappropriate usage,” Kyaw Nyein told ucanews.com.

Ashin Ariya Wun Tha Bhiwun Sa, a Buddhist monk known as Myawaddy Sayadaw from Mandalay, said the minister appeared to use the word “extreme” to hard-line Buddhists at the funeral.

“But as a minister it would be wise to avoid the word, which is sensitive and could cause misunderstanding among communities in the country,” he told ucanews.com.

Myint Swe, a Buddhist and president of Religions for Peace interfaith group, said religious leaders and the government should collaborate to avoid such problems.

“We need to look at the things beyond the word and to be tolerant about small things, otherwise we may not avoid the vicious cycle of mistrust and conflict. We need to carry out many things to build peace and a harmonious society,” Myint Swe told ucanews.com.

The Ministry of Religious Affairs and Culture released a statement on Nov. 30 saying that the minister had meant that there are extremists in every religion.

“We urge the public to be tolerant to avoid unnecessary problems and to collaborate together towards stability and peace,” it said.

Aung Ko, a former general who was deputy religious affairs minister under the military regime, also made controversial comments in April 2016 via the Myanmar language service of Voice of America (VOA).

“The previous government did not oppress or restrict minority religions, including Christianity, the religion of ethnic groups, or Islam and Hinduism — the religions worshipped by most associate citizens,” Aung Ko told VOA.

Myanmar has seen several bouts of religious violence since 2012, much of it targeting Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine State. The Committee for the Protection of Race and Religion, the Buddhist group also known as Ma Ba Tha, spearheads much of the anti-Muslim rhetoric in Myanmar.

Muslims accounted for 2.3 percent of Myanmar’s population in the 2014 census, which did not include the estimated 1.1 million Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine.

Bangladesh: Jailed Opposition Icon Khaleda Zia Faces Uncertain Future

0
0

By Sharif Khiam Ahmed

From her cell in a prison where she’s the lone inmate, Khaleda Zia looms large over Bangladesh politics, even though the three-time former prime minister has not contested an election in a decade.

Zia, the first woman to hold that office in Bangladesh, is serving out corruption convictions, which some said were politically motivated to sideline her ahead of a general election at the end of this month.

The opposition leader whose BNP party boycotted national polls five years ago this time has been barred from personally participating in the Dec. 30 election, leaving a question mark as to who can effectively challenge Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina – Bangladesh’s longest serving leader, who is seeking a record fourth term.

On Sunday, the nation’s Election Commission threw out candidacy papers that her Bangladesh Nationalist Party had submitted on her behalf, citing last week’s ruling disqualifying anyone sentenced to more than two years in prison from running for office.

“The ruling party is actually afraid. Their popularity has decreased. That’s why the BNP has been crippled in this way,” BNP standing committee member Moudud Ahmed told BenarNews, referring to the rulings against Zia, 73.

In February 2018, as she left a court hearing, Zia told her supporters that the government’s legal moves against her were “an attempt to use the court against me, in an effort to sideline me from politics and elections and to isolate me from the people.”

“I will be back, there is no need to cry,” she told her weeping supporters.

Entry into politics

Zia’s political life began in tragedy.

In the early morning hours of May 30, 1981, her husband, whom she married 21 years earlier when she was just 15, lay dead alongside two aides and six body guards.

Ziaur Rahman, who had founded the BNP in the late 1970s and became the country’s president in 1977, was killed by an army assassination squad during a coup while staying at a government rest house in Chittagong.

The gruesome event catapulted his young widow, who was seen until then as a demure first lady and mother of their two sons, into the people’s political consciousness in a fledging nation forged out of a series of bloody events. Zia emerged to inherit the mantle of his party’s leadership.

The widow joined a wide umbrella of political parties in a grueling nine-year campaign of strikes and protests that eventually forced Lt. Gen. Hussain Muhammad Ershad, the leader of Bangladesh’s military government, to step down in December 1990.

Emajuddin Ahmad, former vice chancellor of the University of Dhaka, said Zia’s move to lead the movement against authoritarian rule attracted many Bangladeshis to her political party.

“In fact, it was her wisdom that gave the party a strong footing and a force that had a lasting effect on the country,” Ahmad told BenarNews.

But while analysts credited Zia for reviving her husband’s party, many wondered if she was ready to grapple with national issues, as a young woman and reluctant recruit to politics.

Despite her lack of experience, Zia was buoyed by sympathy over her husband’s death at the hands of rebellious officers, and she led the BNP to a stunning victory in parliamentary elections in 1991, when she became the first woman to serve as PM in the Muslim-majority country.

Record in office

As Bangladesh’s leader, Zia aggressively promoted vocational training and education, while also expanding opportunities for small-scale businesses, particularly those owned by women.

Before she took office, less than half of the country’s population of 120 million people was literate, according to the United Nations.

Zia led Bangladesh as prime minister thrice and served in the parliament as the leader of the opposition twice.

By the end of her third term, aides credited her leadership for keeping the nation’s GDP growth rate at above 6 percent.

But even though she headed a parliamentary democracy and had helped end military dictatorship in her country, Zia was criticized for a record that was not friendly to human rights.

In 2004, she oversaw the establishment of the Rapid Action Team, an elite security force that later became known as the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), and which remains notorious for committing alleged extra-judicial killings.

As prime minister, Zia also enacted the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Act, a law that, critics said, was used to restrict free speech over the internet. The law evolved into the 2018 Digital Security Act, under her reigning nemesis, Hasina.

During her time in power, Zia also could not steer clear of graft allegations that had engulfed previous governments. Her two full terms as prime minister – from 1991 to 1996, and again from 2001 to 2006 – were tainted by suspicions of pervasive official corruption.

Two months after Army chief Gen. Moeen U Ahmed, along with a group of military officers, launched a bloodless coup in January 2007, Zia’s eldest son, Tarique Rahman, was arrested on corruption charges. Her youngest son, Arafat, was also arrested and detained the following month on similar charges.

In September 2007, security forces also arrested Zia on allegations of corruption as the interim government showed its determination to root out graft during the emergency rule.

Sheikh Hasina, who was then a former prime minister, had also been arrested two months earlier on multiple charges of extortion and corruption. Both women were detained in the same special prison set up inside a compound at parliament.

Zia’s sons were eventually released on bail in 2007, while the Bangladesh Supreme Court on Oct. 4 of the same year ruled that the trial against her could continue. Tarique went on a self-imposed exile in London and Arafat died of a heart attack three years ago while in Malaysia.

Not always arch rivals

Hasina, whose father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was assassinated in 1975 while serving as the nation’s first president, joined forces with Zia in the 1980s to oust General Ershad.

After Ershad was removed from power, a neutral caretaker government oversaw the February 1991 election in which BNP won 140 seats, 11 short of a majority. As BNP was the only party capable of forming a government, the elected lawmakers supported Zia as the country’s first female leader.

But Zia’s election spurred a bitter rivalry with Hasina and dragged the nation into a spiral of political violence.

Since Hasina secured her third term as prime minister after the BNP had boycotted the 2014 election, the ruling Awami League has hounded opposition leaders, according to Zia’s supporters.

In the weeks before Zia’s first sentencing in February 2018, hundreds of BNP activists were arrested and detained, opposition leaders said, alleging that the government’s move was part of Hasina’s attempts to outmaneuver Zia.

But BNP leaders, during recent news conferences, vowed to participate in the elections even if their party leader remained in prison.

Zia’s son and heir-apparent, Tarique, was sentenced in absentia to life in prison in October over a grenade attack on a political rally attended by Hasina in 2004.

‘They have squeezed me’

Nowadays, Zia, is serving 10 years in prison after her conviction in two unrelated graft cases, including charges of embezzling funds for an orphanage trust set up when she was prime minister.

Zia’s health is deteriorating as she remains behind bars at a little-used 19th-century jail, aides said.

Her supporters have appealed the charges, expressing hope that she would be acquitted before the Dec. 30 general election.

“Nobody will be allowed to score a goal this time on a playground void of opposition,” local newspapers quoted her as telling supporters the day before her first sentencing.

But on Nov. 28, the Supreme Court upheld a lower court’s ruling that candidates sentenced to more than two years in jail or awaiting decision on appeals could not participate in elections.

Afterwards Attorney General Mahbubey Alam said that the decision effectively barred Zia from contesting next month’s balloting.

“While everyone is busy for the election, they have squeezed me with cases,” Khaleda Zia told the court on Nov. 14 during a hearing on one of her graft cases.

She faces 34 other cases, related to corruption, violence, sedition and fabricating history, but has denied all the charges against her.

“It’s clear that we should consider preparing that Khaleda Zia will not be freed easily,” Ataur Rahman, a former political science professor at the University of Dhaka, told BenarNews.

Another analyst suggested that Zia’s imprisonment could backfire on the ruling Awami League.

“Undoubtedly this imprisonment is enriching Khaleda Zia. Her political wisdom is getting stronger. People’s sympathies are rising towards the BNP chairperson. It is also increasing her popularity,” said M. Anwar Hashim, a former diplomat.

China’s Bubbles Buoy Economy As Risks Loom – Analysis

0
0

By Michael Lelyveld

China’s steel production hit an all-time high in October as manufacturers pumped up output in what may be a bubble in the country’s slowing economy.

Despite international concerns about excessive production and U.S. tariffs on its exports, China set a monthly record of 82.55 million metric tons of crude steel, rising 9.1 percent over year-earlier marks.

Overproduction is likely to be a key challenge for China as it struggles to maintain economic growth following the “truce” in the trade war with the United States, announced over the weekend.

The agreement reached at talks between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping following the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, will suspend additional tariff measures for a negotiating period of 90 days, the White House said.

In announcing the steel figures at a National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) press conference on Nov. 14, spokesperson Liu Aihua linked the surge to expected cutbacks at coal-fired mills this winter.

The government has ordered seasonal reductions in the northern region to keep emissions from adding to pollution from heating systems through mid-March for the second winter in a row.

The boost from steel may be partially responsible for a slight rise in October’s industrial output to a year-on-year gain of 5.9 percent, up 0.1 percentage points from September.

But China’s need for more steel appears doubtful.

Infrastructure investment has risen at a sluggish 3.7-percent pace in the first 10 months of the year and overall fixed-asset investment in long-lasting projects like buildings has grown only 5.7 percent, the NBS said.

In the latest official indicator of the economy last week, the NBS said that the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for manufacturing declined in November to 50, evenly poised between contraction and expansion, down from 50.2 in October.

The non-manufacturing PMI mark of 53.4 also showed signs of slower growth, declining from a reading of 53.9 the month before.

The figures suggest that higher rates of steel production are only a bubble that could deflate with a bang over the winter. But similar expectations last winter, during the first season of air quality shutdowns, never came about.

Instead, steelmakers staged an unbroken monthly string of year-on-year production gains, ending 2017 with a 5.7-percent increase over 2016.

New records in 2018

So far this year, China’s mills have set new records in four of the last eight months, posting a 6.4-percent increase through October this year.

Despite three years of cutting production overcapacity, there always seems to be a reason why China is making more steel.

During last winter’s government-ordered cutbacks in the region surrounding Beijing, manufacturers shifted production to areas outside the smog-control zone.

When prices were low, steel companies made more in hopes of driving competitors out of business. When steel prices rose, mills reopened their closed production lines and raised output to recover lost profits.

Steel companies have cited the anti-smog cutbacks as a reason for increasing output both before and after the winter period. During the last seasonal cycle, steel prices were supported by fears of output reductions that have yet to take place.

This year, the policies have worked well for producers but less beneficially for air quality, as Beijing has recently been hit with smog alerts at least once a week.

On Nov. 25, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the total main operating income of China’s iron and steel industry through September rose 14 percent to 5.66 trillion yuan (U.S. $814.5 billion).

Aggregate profit of the sector soared 65.3 percent from a year earlier to 358.7 billion yuan (U.S. $51.6 billion), the official Xinhua news agency reported.

China’s overproduction has been an international problem because the country makes about half of the world’s steel.

October’s record output comes despite signs of weakening demand.

The industry’s steel price index rose by a small fraction of a percentage point from September and nearly 5 percent from a year earlier, the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) said.

But last week, the London-based Financial Times reported that prices for Shanghai rebar, used in construction, have dropped by more than one-fifth since August, putting margins under pressure.

“The controversy of high output has not been solved, while demand is expected to weaken in the future. That makes physical prices face increasing pressure to plunge further,” said CITIC Futures analysts in a note cited by Reuters on Nov. 20.

Distorted economy

But steel is only one of several sources of distortion that affect China’s economy and frustrate forecasts.

Other examples of bubbles in the economy include recent trade figures, which the government has cited as evidence of China’s “resilience” under pressure.

China’s exports in October jumped 15.6 percent from a year earlier in dollar terms, beating forecasts and the 14.5-percent growth rate a month before, according to customs figures reported by western news agencies.

Dollar-denominated imports climbed 21.4 percent, easily topping the September increase of 14.3 percent, the CNBC financial network and Reuters said.

The October results were buoyed by a 13.2-percent rise in exports to the United States.

But analysts attributed much of the increase to “front-loading” of shipments ahead of Trump’s threat to hike tariff rates from 10 percent to 25 percent in January.

Instead of showing resilience, the trade numbers may be warning that another bubble is about to pop.

“Exports to the United States will flatten or fall next year no matter what,” said Derek Scissors, an Asia economist and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, commenting before the tariff postponement.

Scissors said that “exports have been rushed this year, so the first half of next year will be weak, then the U.S. economy will slow, so the second half of the year will be weak. So, yes, this is a bit of an export bubble.”

While steel and trade are examples of current bubbles, the Chinese economy has been under the influence of one bubble or another for years.

In 2016, for example, loose credit policies and lax regulation led to an astonishing 44.1-percent splurge in non-financial outbound direct investment (ODI) as fast-growing investment groups gorged on foreign real estate, entertainment assets and hotels.

In 2017, government regulators cracked down on “irrational outbound investment,” driving ODI down by 29.4 percent and forcing sales of foreign assets. The results for debt growth, defaults and financial risks are still being felt.

“ODI in 2016 was absolutely a bubble — private money rushing out of the country and largely into the United States,” said Scissors. “Even official ODI may fall this year on top of last year’s drop.”

In the previous decade, China’s stockpiling of crude oil in a strategic petroleum reserve at undisclosed rates was blamed for another bubble of double-digit growth in imports, creating a major variable in global oil demand as prices reached record highs.

China’s real estate market has also been a subject of bubble warnings for years, as runaway development has been driven by investment and promises of perpetual price growth, despite government curbs on buying and downturn risks.

‘Data show resilience’

The government’s narrative for the economy has painted a picture of steady growth and slight settling to sustainable levels as far as the eye can see, but the profusion of bubbles has kept expectations on the cusp of a sudden drop.

Despite the uncertainties, state media continue to voice confidence in official economic forecasts and growth rates, reporting cherry-picked positive figures for indicators like railway freight volume and road traffic.

“The data, added to a series of indicators, show resilience in the economy,” Xinhua said in a Nov. 19 report.

“The country’s economy recorded a strong growth of 6.7 percent in the first three quarters, on track to achieve the government’s annual target of around 6.5 percent for 2018,” it said.

A major test of the durability of China’s bubbles may be coming in the next 90 days, if an agreement to settle outstanding differences with Washington is not reached before then.

“Everyone does it, but China forecasting based on official data should not be taken seriously,” said Scissors, who sees serious concern over the value of the yuan if it breaks through the psychological barrier of seven to the U.S. dollar.

“If I had to pick a single, serious China risk to worry about, if they let it fall below seven to the dollar, can they stabilize it at 7.2 or 7.3?” he said.

Artificial Intelligence For Studying Ancient Human Populations Of Patagonia

0
0

Argentine and Spanish researchers have used statistical techniques of automatic learning to analyze mobility patterns and technology of the hunter-gatherer groups that inhabited the Southern Cone of America, from the time they arrived about 12,000 years ago until the end of the 19th century. Big data from archaeological sites located in the extreme south of Patagonia have been used for this study.

The presence of humans on the American continent dates back to at least 14,500 years ago, according to datings made at archaeological sites such as Monte Verde, in Chile’s Los Lagos Region. But the first settlers continued moving towards the southernmost confines of America.

Now, researchers from Argentina’s National Council for Scientific and Technical Research (CONICET) and two Spanish institutions (the Spanish National Research Council and the University of Burgos) have analyzed the relationships between mobility and technology developed by those societies that originated in the far south of Patagonia.

The study, published in the Royal Society Open Science journal, is based on an extensive database of all available archaeological evidence of human presence in this region, from the time the first groups arrived in the early Holocene (12,000 years ago) until the end of the 19th century.

This was followed by the application of machine learning techniques, a statistical system that allows the computer to learn from many data (in this case, big data from characteristic technological elements of the sites) in order to carry out classifications and predictions.

“It is by means of automatic classification algorithms that we have identified two technological packages or ‘landscapes’: one that characterizes pedestrian hunter-gatherer groups (with their own stone and bone tools) and the other characterizing those that had nautical technology, such as canoes, harpoons and mollusc shells used to make beads,” explains Ivan Briz i Godino, an archaeologist of the National Council for Scientific and Technical Research (CONICET) of Argentina and co-author of the work.

“In future excavations, when sets of technological elements such as those we have detected appear, we’ll be able to directly deduce the type of mobility of the group or the connections with other communities,” adds Briz.

The results of the study have also made it possible to obtain maps with the settlements of the two communities, and this, in turn, has made it possible to locate large regions in which they interacted and shared their technological knowledge. In the case of groups with nautical technology, it has been confirmed that they arrived at around the beginning of the Mid-Holocene (some 6,000 years ago) from the channels and islands of the South Pacific, moving along the coast of what is now Chile.

“Traditional archaeology identifies sites, societies and their possible contacts on the basis of specific elements selected by specialists (such as designs of weapon tips or decorative elements), but here we show that it is more interesting to analyse sets of technological elements as a whole, using artificial intelligence techniques that allow us to work with large data volumes and without subjective prejudices,” concludes Briz.


Young, Hip Farmers: Coming To A City Near You

0
0

If you’ve been to your neighborhood farmers market or seen a small “local” section pop up in your grocery store, you may have noticed a trend: People want to know where their food is coming from, and the agricultural industry is responding. The number of farmers markets in the U.S. has skyrocketed in recent years, but with an aging population of farmers, who’s supporting this growth?

Enter the new American farmer. It’s a term used by Andrew Flachs, an environmental anthropologist at Purdue University, to describe a movement of younger people new to agricultural work who do it for different reasons than the conventional farmer. They may be motivated through higher education, personal politics, disenchantment with urban life or in search of an authentic rural identity, he says.

In a new paper in the journal Rural Sociology, Flachs identifies several hot spots where this movement is really taking shape: the West Coast, central Texas and Oklahoma, central Florida and the Great Lakes region.

“We’re seeing these hot spots pop up in the peripheries of hip cities,” Flachs said. “Some of these places might seem obvious, like the West Coast and the northern Midwest around Madison, the Twin Cities and Chicago. But we also see some things that aren’t totally expected.”

Among the unexpected trends he found, east Texas and the southern Midwest are becoming increasingly important for this kind of agriculture. Appalachia, which has historically been a hub, essentially disappeared from the map.

In collaboration with Matthew Abel, an anthropologist at Washington University in St. Louis, Flachs built a model that counts how many traits associated with new American agrarianism appear in each county. With data from the USDA agricultural censuses from 1997 to 2012, they considered factors such as average sales per farm, number of certified organic farms, owners under age 34, number of farms selling directly to individuals, proximity to farmers markets and more.

The findings show that newer farmers appear to thrive on the outskirts of cities that provide high demand and purchasing power, a large population and healthy number of farmers markets.

The price of real estate is another important factor in determining where these markets can flourish. Rural developers have steadily increased farm real estate over the last few decades, which could deter newer farmers from settling down there. Concentrations of urban wealth drive up real estate costs in the city while simultaneously creating new niche markets, making space for younger farmers to exist between urban and rural landscapes.

Identifying where new and small farmers live and work will pave the way for further research on what’s motivating this budding sector of the agricultural economy. New American farmers occupy an important intersection of niche marketing strategies, environmental politics and rural demographic change that could have a significant impact on food production and social life in agrarian landscapes, according to the paper.

Flachs points out that many new American farmers approach agriculture with hopes to embody a nostalgic past where food and environments were healthier, but others may be simply trying to make a living as farmers amid dissatisfaction with conventional agribusiness. Although it’s easy to stereotype, it’s unlikely that all new American farmers fit this description.

“Sometimes when we think about these farmers, we picture young people with liberal arts degrees looking for some kind of connection to the earth or wanting to work with their hands,” Flachs said. “What we found is that that’s probably not the most representative view of who these people actually are. I’m glad to have my stereotype broken up by the data.”

Mending The Pakistan-India Relationship – OpEd

0
0

Both Pakistan and India are nuclear powers, and have fought various wars and constantly live in state of war ever since they got independence from British Raj in 1947. Economists are of the consensus that had the two countries lived like peaceful neighbors, abstained from spending billions of dollars annually on procurement of lethal arsenal and invested money on the development; these would have been the most prosperous economies of the world. It would not be wrong to say that the British Raj left a thorn, Kashmir, which has been constantly exploited by the United States. Let the readers keep one point in mind that Hindus have not accepted partition of subcontinent and openly say that they would not allow another partition of India on the basis of religion (apartheid of Kashmir).

As Indian delegates attended the Kartarpur corridor groundbreaking ceremony, Minister for External Affairs Sushma Swaraj announced that India will not attend the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) conference if it is held in Pakistan. She brushed off any possibility of improvement in relations between India and Pakistan, despite the opening of the Kartarpur crossing. “Until and unless Pakistan stops terrorist activities in India, there will be no dialogue and we will not participate in SAARC [conference],” asserted Swaraj. Owing to India’s refusal to attend, Pakistan will not be able to convene the event for the third year now. Participation of all member states is mandatory for the convening of a Saarc summit.

The SAARC summit remains in limbo for the third year running due to India’s refusal to attend a meeting in Pakistan. Islamabad was to host the 19th summit of the regional bloc in November 2016, but India on that occasion forced its cancellation by first pulling out of the meeting on the pretext of “increasing cross-border terrorist attacks in the region and growing interference in internal affairs of member states by one country”, because of which it claimed the environment was “not conducive to the successful holding of the 19th SAARC summit in Islamabad”. India was later joined by its regional allies Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Bhutan, all of whom also pulled out citing concerns about terrorism and external interference in an implied criticism of Pakistan. Pakistan has not been able to convene the event for the third year now because of a virtual Indian veto.

SAARC summits, as per the charter of the body, are to be held once a year or more frequently as required by the situation. The summits are held on a rotational basis in alphabetical order of the names of member states. However, summits could be held only on 18 occasions in SAARC’s 33 years of existence. Most of the postponements have taken place in the last 17 years. Although there have been different reasons for the delays and rescheduling, including bilateral disputes and internal problems of member states, India has been the most common cause in these postponements, if not all. At least on two occasions the hold-ups were because of Pakistan-India disputes.

India refused to attend the 11th summit on the pretext of a coup in Pakistan and the 12th summit because of the prime minister’s schedule. India on those occasions used the participation card to pressure the hosts. The longest delay was on the occasion of the 11th summit hosted by Kathmandu. On that occasion the summit scheduled for November 1999 was held in January 2002 after delay of nearly two years and two months. On five occasions in the past the venue had to be changed for hosting of the conference — 3rd, 4th, 5th, 15th and 16th summits.

This time India is insisting that it would not agree to a meeting in Islamabad as long as it does not see any visible progress on its concerns about terrorism. Pakistan has time and again denied the allegations and has on several occasions offered dialogue to address the outstanding issues. The functioning of SAARC appeared to have the silent support of everyone except India. SAARC summits once scheduled, after obtaining the concurrence of all the member states, must go ahead even if the heads of state or government of one or two members do not find it convenient to attend. No member should be allowed to hold SAARC to ransom. Using internal developments in one member state to disrupt the SAARC process should be unacceptable.

There is a need to oppose any attempt to dilute the principle of sovereign equality of member states, as all members are equal partners. SAARC members should use its platform to resolve their political differences. All problems that afflict the region must be sincerely addressed and resolved. Sweeping them under the carpet can never be the answer. The only wise and courageous choice is to resolve all disputes and differences on a durable basis, those solutions based on justice and fair play can be durable. Peace and tranquility is essential for the progress of South Asia. Nothing can be achieved as long as there is tension and hostilities among any members.

Pakistan condemns terrorist attacks and joined the international coalition in the campaign against terrorism. The country itself has been a victim of terrorism. The concerted campaign against terrorism must also identify and examine the causes that breed terrorism, that derive people to hopelessness and to desperation. It is equally important that a distinction was maintained between acts of legitimate resistance and freedom struggles on one hand and the acts of terrorism on the other.

George H.W. Bush: Cold War Ends And New World Orders – OpEd

0
0

The death of certain political figures, notably those of a vast imperium, is bound to provoke less criticism or critical insight than soul searching pursuits. With the US in the mauling clutches of Donald J. Trump, the nightmare that was supposedly never to happen, nostalgia prevails in establishment circles. What ever happened to traditional duplicity and dynasty politicians, with their sanctimonious call upon the good Sky God benefactor and the messianic mission? The US Republic, even as it was being emptied of its worth during their tenure, could at least be assured of predictable corruption. Decay, yes, but on their controlled terms.

The death of the forty-first president, George H.W. Bush was a fine reminder of that point, a man of standing and missions who could be said, by Time, to be a creature of Aristotle’s “practical wisdom”. A “natural born leader” was he, one “comfortable with dissenting views” and skilful in his employ of “strong advisers”.

The New York Times, with ceremonial hat tilting, saw Bush as “part of a new generation of Republicans” and was “often referred to as the most successful one-term president”. The recipe for this success, according to such commentary, seems to have been written in foreign rather than domestic fields. He is seen as a masterful juggler, “handling” the collapse of the Soviet Union and ensuring “the liberation of Eastern Europe”. As the Cold War curtain was drawn, Bush, reprising his role as a Second World War naval aviator, remained calm.

Bush’s passing is a reminder about a particular moment of history. The Soviet Union packed up in disarray, its own imperium unfolding as based closed and forces left. This left the way, dangerously, for an uncontained hegemon. The United States became Prometheus unbound, even if its power was initially advertised under the broader umbrella of a “New World Order”.

Bush gave an inkling of what this order would look like in his address to a joint session of Congress on September 11, 1990. “The crisis in the Persian Gulf, as grave as it is, also offers a rare opportunity to move toward an historic period of cooperation.”

Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, having invaded Kuwait in August 1990 after reading mixed signals from Washington, had presented an alibi and pretext for principled aggression, done so, artificially, under the blanket of international norms. Bush made the spurious claim that the Iraqi invasion had been prompted “without provocation or warning,” ignoring the July assurance given to Saddam by US ambassador to Iraq, April Glaspie, that Washington had “no opinion on the Arab-Arab conflicts, like your border disagreement with Kuwait.” He saw, in Baghdad’s efforts, a stretched historical analogy. “As was the case in the 1930’s, we see in Saddam Hussein an aggressive dictator threatening his neighbours.”

Crucial to this was a condescending hand to the Soviet Union: that it be welcomed “back into the world order”. (Had it been absent for the duration?) Such language was couched in the confidence of an imperial leadership convinced that the barbarians had been subjugated and would, if not exactly lend their support, avoid any effort to sabotage Project USA.

These shaky norms were defended by a coalition, assembled in January 1991, disproportionate in its scope involving two dozen countries, but it lent itself to the dangerous illusion that the US should, and could, become a post-Cold War policeman equipped with discriminatory wisdom and fine acumen. New World Orders, when invoked, tend to be preludes to further conflict. President Woodrow Wilson, vainly obsessed with the League of Nations, did much to aspire to a moral structure that had, within its own foundation, ruination and despoliation. As Europe recoiled in 1919 from self-inflicted slaughter, a second world war was in gestation.

In that very suggestion that a country might be central to remaking a global system came the defective nature of US foreign policy and its messianic, delivering strain: an empire seen in the context of duty and shouldering a heavy burden to make a world safe for something or rather. (Democracy less than money and hustling.) Expelling Saddam from Kuwait was a false advertisement for future collective security, a concept that had been doomed in the aftermath of the First World War.

The 1991 mission also came with an unhealthy sense that the Vietnam syndrome had been purged, rendering US military interventions somehow free of original sin. Morally inspired giants could intervene in foreign conflicts at will without lasting and dangerous consequence. Father Bush thereby begot the failings of Bush Junior in a Middle East repeat in 2003 that continues to shake the region in paroxysms of sectarian rage.

No figure can be considered in splendid isolation. Bush was Ronald Reagan’s vice-president for eight years, much of it featuring a president prone to astrological advice (quite literally) and amnesiac episodes. He also took a leaf out of the latter’s book of deception over the arms-for-hostages deal, professing ignorance about it in 1987. It is one of the few points that his biographer, Jon Meacham, finds fault with him over. Then came the supply side economics that remains a perennial disease of US economics: you coddle and favour the wealthy through sugary tax cuts, increase public debt and slash public funding.

If the beasts of relativity were to be consulted, Bush Sr could be seen as better in value than certain US presidents, but only marginally. He, after all, presided over the motor of hubris that did lead the US into a lengthy sunset even as it hectored the rest of the world. In evaluating his own son’s exploits, he was guarded and concerned about the turn of power after September 11, 2001. He was particularly concerned of the neoconservative hardliners. “I don’t like what he did,” reflected Bush on former Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld, “and think it hurt the president, having his iron-ass view of everything”. In the annals of empire, the two Bushes, separated by a Clinton, remain more consistent than the hair splitters would wish.

Refugees’ Integration Into European Society Priority Issue In Crisis Overcoming – OpEd

0
0

Leaders of some Central and Eastern European countries refused to support the UN Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, which should be signed in Moroccan Marrakesh in December.

For example, Czech President Milos Zeman noted that the adoption of the document could lead to increased illegal migration.

“I would definitely reject the UN Global Compact. Its main drawback is that it does not distinguish between illegal and legal migration,” he said in an interview with the Prague TV channel Barrandov.

In turn Peter Szijjarto, Hungary’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, stated that the Global Compact for Migration is “the worst possible response to the migration crisis” the United Nations could provide, because “migration processes must be stopped, not encouraged, and its causes must be eliminated.”

Slovakia, Poland, Austria and Croatia also refused to support an international agreement, one of the points of which calls mass migration “inevitable, necessary and desirable”.

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel defended the United Nations agreement on migration, stressing that international efforts are needed to solve such problems.

“The debate about a global pact for migration, for orderly, legal migration in a world where there are 222 violent conflicts, in a world where more than 1 billion children are affected by these conflicts, in a world where there are 68.5 million refugees, 52 per cent of whom are children, this organization plays a central role. In 2015 […] we realized that the problem of flight and migration had to be tackled at an international level, and no one country can do it alone,” Angela Merkel said at the Bundestag’s 2019 budget debate on November 21.

At the same time, according to observers, the situation associated with the influx of migrants in the EU is difficult to assess unequivocally: on the one hand, it brings certain economic benefits, on the other – leads to unpredictable political consequences.

According to the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), the influx of migrants had a positive impact on the economy in Germany, increasing GDP growth by an average of 0.2 percentage points per year. At the same time, according to the official statistics of the Federal Criminal Investigation Department of Germany, compared to 2016, the number of serious crimes committed by migrants increased in 2017 by 30%.

Commenting on the difficult situation, Roberto Castaldi, Research Director of International Centre for European and global governance, Director of the Research Centre on Multi-Level Integration and Governance Processes at eCampus University, pointed to the fact that the situation with migrants is very different in each EU member state.

“Some have set up effective integration policies, some haven’t. But what really influenced the political debate was the narrative and perception of a massive unregulated and un-governed influx. For example in many countries the perception of most citizens about the number of immigrants in their countries is up to 10 times the real numbers. There is currently no migration crisis in the EU in real terms, but there is in the public perception. This is fuelled by many extremist right-wing parties, which exploit that perception to gain votes. But they also need to sustain the narrative that keeps that perception, otherwise their electoral support would vanish,” the expert told PenzaNews.

In his opinion, situation with migrants in Germany is good.

“Unemployment in Germany is extremely low. There are many jobs that Germans would not take. Therefore there is space to integrate new migrants in the labor market,” Roberto Castaldi explained.

According to him, it is quite easy for refugees to find work in all European countries.

“Even in countries with high unemployment there are many jobs that locals would not take – for example in the seasonal agricultural sector, but also some permanent low-skilled jobs in manufacturing. And the only way to keep those sectors of the economy going is by employing immigrants. If you visit certain Italian manufacturing districts in Italy – for example the leather production in Santa Croce – you’ll hardly find an Italian in the low-skill jobs. Without immigrants much of the Italian tomatoes produced in the south would not be picked up,” the analyst explained.

Speaking of security, he noted that overall the number of criminals within the immigrant population remains very low.

“The identification of migrants with crime is thus just a stereotype – a pars pro toto mechanism at work: you attach to the whole group the image of its worst, even if small, part. Most migrants and refugees are just poor people fleeing from civil wars, persecution, poverty, who wish a better life for themselves and their children,” he said.

At the same time, he stressed the importance of an effective integration policy.

“These people have experienced a lot of violence during their lives, so they are also more prone to use it as a means to solve controversies and tensions. Because that was the reality in which they were originally initially socialized. It requires educational work and cultural mediation to get migrants used to our way of life, including basic aspects that we usually simply take for granted,” Roberto Castaldi explained.

From his point of view, many problems in the European Union are connected with the reluctance of individual political groups to help resolve a difficult situation.

“Actually the Commission has proposed a comprehensive and compulsory system of refugees reallocation, and a reform of the Dublin regulations and the Parliament already approved them. It is the Member states who can’t find an agreement. In the end most of them prefer not to create a real European competence and capacity to decide and act on the matter, in order to keep this a national policy. For example in Italy extreme right-wing parties such as Lega now in government on the one hand attack the EU for not helping Italy enough and not showing solidarity. But on the other hand they vote against the reform of the Dublin regulation that would make the EU able to help Italy more,” the analyst said.

In turn, Anton Friesen, Member of the foreign affairs committee and the committee on humanitarian assistance and human rights of the German Parliament, AfD MP, called the migrant influx into the EU a fundamental challenge.

“Chancellor Merkel’s no border policy has deeply divided the EU. A rather migrant-critically block in the East and a pro-immigrant block in the West. But even the pro-immigrant countries like Sweden have already acknowledged that there are some limitations concerning the capacities of integration,” he said.

According to him, Germany is the only country that still keeps its no border policy.

“That means no migrant can be rejected on the German-Austrian border when he claims asylum. Even there is obviously no danger for him in Austria. Furthermore the migrant crisis splits the European societies. A rational debate about migration is not possible anymore. This is dangerous for all of us,” Anton Friesen added.

Commenting on the survey data, showing the positive impact of migrants on the economy of Germany, the deputy drew attention to the narrowness of the analyzed information.

“There is no doubt that some migrants found work in Germany, because our economy is booming. But you have to see this allegedly success in a bigger picture. Germany has a sophisticated welfare state. That means if you have a poorly paid job, the state gives you additional social benefits for example for your rent or your children. Furthermore the migrants get free access to our health system. If you compare the benefits from migrants from Islamic countries for our country to their costs, the result is clearly negative. Of course, there are some migrant groups from Eastern Europe, for example, Poles, where the benefits are bigger than the costs,” Bundestag deputy said.

Meanwhile, in his opinion, German media usually don’t report on negative aspects of migration and security issues are not taken seriously.

“You have to read Austrian or Swiss media to get information about the critical situation in Croatia. It’s still a taboo in Germany to talk about the fact that the most of the so called refugees who come to our country are Muslim young men. There are hundreds of murders or rape cases, in which these so called refugees are the perpetrators – in Chemnitz, Freiburg, Kandel and so on. Political correctness is the biggest treat for our society. If you can’t name a problem, you can’t solve it,” Anton Friesen said.

Meanwhile, Kenneth Kristensen Berth, Member of Folketing for the Danish People’s Party, Vice-Chairman of the European Affairs Committee in the national Parliament, stressed that the problem of integration is very difficult.

“It is impossible to integrate a group of people who do not want to be integrated. To my knowledge not a single western European country has managed to integrate people from the MENA countries in any successful way,” the politician said.

Moreover, in his opinion, the situation in Germany should not be compared with the situation in many other European countries.

“It is not what we have experienced in Denmark where about 25 percent are now employed which means that three quarters of the people arriving are still dead weight for the society. By the way, getting a job does not necessarily mean that you are integrated,” Kenneth Kristensen Berth said.

“The vast majority of Turkish guest workers who were employed in Denmark during the sixties and seventies were never integrated into Danish society but stock to their own traditions and isolated themselves from the rest of society,” Member of Folketing added.

According to him, the security situation associated with the influx of migrants also leaves much to be desired.

“There are no doubt that the majority of these people are single men and that they produce a security risk not only in regard to terrorism but also for young women who risk falling prey to those who are not used to respecting women,” Kenneth Kristensen Berth explained.

Kamal Sido, Head of Middle East Department of the Society for Threatened Peoples (STP), noted that right-wing forces in Germany oppose the arrival of migrants primarily from Muslim countries.

“However, I think that the integration system is developed quite well – the children of migrants get education, learn German. […] Refugees want to quickly find a job, because they have nothing. Thus, they help the economy of the country to which they arrive. This statement is equally true, for example, for Syrian refugees in Turkey, people from Central Asia in Russia, as well as migrants in Western countries,” the expert said.

Nevertheless, he shared the view that countries need to pay particular attention to the integration process.

“In most cases, people who leave their homeland want to live in peace, because they are very tired of wars, want their children to go to school, and then find a job. For example, refugees from Afghanistan and Syria are very exhausted by the difficult situation in their home countries. However, among the migrants there are some radical people. Therefore, it is very important that the integration process and support measures help migrants to quickly adapt to life in European society,” Kamal Sido concluded.

Source: https://penzanews.ru/en/analysis/65803-2018

San Francisco’s Wealthy Leftists Are Making Homelessness Worse – OpEd

0
0

By Gregory Morin*

I recently had the opportunity to visit San Francisco for the first time. Coastal towns tend to be a bit more interesting in terms of cuisine (seafood being one of the more varied palate options) as well as architecture (steep hill structures are ever a testament to human ingenuity) and San Francisco scores high in both categories. However one area where it currently scores quite low is in the aroma zone. At first I thought perhaps they had a very inefficient sewer system near the shoreline retail sector, but as we explored deeper toward the city center it became clear something was amiss. I learned shortly thereafter that San Francisco has a poop crisis. To be blunt — people are literally crapping on the sidewalks. Not the tourists, mind you, but the local homeless population. The situation has come to a head (or to the head to employ a nautical metaphor) primarily as a result of progressive conservatism primed with the power of centralized (governmental) authority.

The outside leftist narrative of course is that this poop crisis is inevitable results of unmitigated capitalism, which drives the eternal boogeyman of income inequality. This inequality fuels gentrification of the San Francisco housing market (no, actually property taxes are the prime driver of gentrification — if you own your home absent property tax you would never need to sell due to rising prices). So as housing becomes ever more “unaffordable” people are forced out of their homes and onto the street. This is of course complete nonsense. Prices only go up if supply is constrained while demand is rising. So in order to discover why supply is constrained we turn our attention toward the “inside” leftists (that is, the progressive liberals who live there). It turns out those that live there are in fact quite conservative (even if they don’t realize it). Any attempted new housing project must pass not only governmental hurdles but also the “local input” of current residents. These residents walk and talk like social progressives but because one of their core tenets is that they do not want the flavor, character, or architecture of the area in which they live to change — that is, they want to conserve it in perpetuity — this by definition makes them conservatives in that arena. Their dual desire to not only keep San Francisco locked in an eternal snow globe style stasis but to also not erode the value of their homes drives them to engage in this very destructive economic protectionism: keeping newcomers out by making it virtually impossible (or more costly than necessary) to build, keeps the value of their own homes artificially elevated while preserving the Norman Rockwell character of their town.

To fully appreciate the extent of the damage they are causing and why perhaps more than anywhere else in the country the homeless problem is so acute is that the median price of a modest single family home now stands at $1.6 million. A family of four with a household income of $100k is considered at the poverty line and actually qualifies for assistance from HUD (let that sink in — taxpayers across the country are subsidizing the housing of people making a $100k/year).

So what is the solution? Always the same and likewise always decried as “unrealistic” — remove all housing regulations and obstacles and let anyone build anything anywhere (works just fine in Houston, Texas, thank you very much). Your neighbor has no right to say what you can do with your property. Progressives (yes, I’m looking at you “townies” in Athens, Georgia) should stop blocking progress when it comes to housing and development.

About the author:
*Gregory Morin
is CEO of Seachem Laboratories, Inc., in Madison, Georgia.  He holds a Ph.D. in Chemistry from the University of Notre Dame, and has over 16 years experience working at the intersection of the entrepreneurship/business world and the regulatory world

Source:
This article was published by the MISES Institute

Viewing all 73339 articles
Browse latest View live




Latest Images