Russian gas major Gazprom has launched the final unit of a major national gas field in the Arctic that is projected to produce for more than 100 years.

It took the company 10 years to build the whole infrastructure in the harsh northern conditions. The unique Bovanenkovo oil and gas condensate field will now be able to work at full capacity, increasing it to the target level of 115 billion cubic meters of gas per year. This is almost half of what Gazprom provides for the domestic market and almost half its exports, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“The scale is impressive,” Putin told Gazprom’s CEO, Alexey Miller, as he joined the launching ceremony via a conference call on Wednesday.

The works on the key Arctic facility began in 2008, and the company managed to create a powerful industrial complex at the field as well as all necessary infrastructure, including a railroad and an airport. Two previous units began operations in 2012 and in 2014.

Gas production operations at the field are to continue at the facility for more than 100 years – until 2128. The Yamal gas production center, which includes Bovanenkovo field, has the “primary role in the national gas industry throughout the 21st century,” according to Gazprom.

The company also said it connected the Ukhta-Torzhok 2 gas pipeline, designed to pump gas into the Nord Stream 2 to Germany, to the key route of Russia’s Unified Gas Supply System (UGSS). The new gas pipeline is 970 kilometers (602 miles) long and can take some 45 billion cubic meters of gas per year.

Bovanenkovo is the backbone of the Yamal gas production center and the largest field in the area in terms of explored gas reserves. At the start of development in 2012, its reserves were estimated at 4.9 trillion cubic meters. Last year, gas production from the facility amounted to 82.8 billion cubic meters.

By Cornelia Meyer*

Leaders of the three main countries in Western Europe are facing leadership challenges, and each is a sign of a deeper malaise infecting European societies.

In Germany, discontent with Chancellor Angela Merkel manifested itself at the last election to the Bundestag, when her CDU (Christian Democratic Union) party achieved the worst result in postwar history.

Then there were the fraught negotiations to form a coalition government, and the disastrous state election results for the CDU’s sister CSU party in Bavaria and coalition partners the SPD in Hesse. There were also nasty public spats with Merkel’s interior minister, the Bavarian Horst Seehofer.

The hemorrhage of voters from these established players to fringe parties had started earlier. On the right, they departed in droves to the Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD), and on the left they opted for die Linke, an offshoot of the communist party of the former German Democratic Republic. In the middle, the Greens and to a lesser extent the Liberals (FDP) fared well. Under 18 years of Merkel the CDU had moved markedly to the center. Their pledges had become very closer to the aims of the Greens and the SPD.

The election results led to Merkel withdrawing from the presidency of the party and declaring that she would step down as chancellor before the next elections in 2021. The party leadership contest was disputed on the right between Jens Spahn and Friedrich Merz, who wanted to restore the old Christian and conservative values.

The winner, Annegret Kram-Karrenbauer, had been anointed by Merkel and stood for her centrist approach.

This may be good for Merkel, because her chances of staying in office for longer have increased with the party leadership in the hands of her highly competent ally and former Prime Minister of the Saarland.

The displeasure with Merkel went beyond the turning point of her popularity in 2015, when she let about a million refugees into Germany.

This gave the right-wing AfD the ammunition to do exceptionally well in the elections. During the 1970s and 1980s the former CSU leader and Defense Minister, Franz Josef Strauss, had argued time and again that it would be dangerous for Germany if political parties were established to the right of the CDU/CSU.

To the left, Germans worry about the future of their welfare state, underfunded pensions, inadequate childcare and support for the elderly. For many families, finances have become tight. Rented housing has become unaffordable and home ownership unimaginable.

Over the past few weeks the Yellow Jacket movement brought France’s security apparatus to its knees. The streets of Paris and regional cities were afflicted by riots last seen in 2005. The scenes in Paris this weekend were reminiscent of a capital under siege and in a state of emergency.

Here, too, the initial spark (a fuel tax) only provided the trigger for expressing a wider dissatisfaction. As in Germany, it is about the disconnect between income, rents and the cost of living. It is also about high unemployment, which Germany has been able to avert since the noughties.

French presidents have always had to contend with opposition, and sometimes unrest, when they tried to impose reforms.

What is different this time is that, as in Germany, the traditional party landscape was turned on its head: Last year Emmanuel Macron’s la Republique en Marche displaced a raft of candidates from the conventional parties in the French parliament. This means there is no sizeable opposition in parliament and many supporters of those historic parties may feel more accommodating toward the demonstrators than they would if they had representatives in parliament with a seat at the table.

Over to the UK, where Prime Minister Theresa May is fighting for her political survival and to push her Brexit deal through parliament. Neither looks easy.

Brexit is a self-inflicted crisis in the political system, but it reduces that very system to a state of near limbo. The UK does not have a written constitution, but rather refers to a range of traditions, laws and rules as constitutional. That “constitution” has been put to a severe test since that fatal day in 2016 when 52 percent of voters ticked the “leave” box on the Brexit referendum ballot.

Again, there were deep undercurrents from which Nigel Farage and the UK Independence Party (UKIP) that he led could draw in order to achieve the referendum result. True, then Prime Minister David Cameron called for the referendum out of fear that his Conservative Party would lose too many votes to UKIP in the future. The right wing of the party has always had an uneasy relationship with Europe, so Cameron’s fears of defecting politicians and voters were justified. However, Farage played a clever game, turning the Brexit question into one that fed on insecurities and nurtured fears of immigration and social decline. It also built on the deep suspicions the general population harbored against the political classes in Westminster.

Not unlike Germany or France, the political and business elites were not capable of reading the national sentiment accurately. They did too little to assuage the fears of Mr.Everyman.

Europeans have had it good for a long time. The welfare state provided for all. It is becoming increasingly doubtful how affordable that will be in future. At the same time, the cost of living is rising and bare essentials such as housing are out of reach for many. Other than in Germany, unemployment — especially youth unemployment — is a pressing issue.

There is resentment that governments saved “fat-cat” bankers and did little for the poor during the financial crisis of 2008. Income and wealth inequality is on the rise. Overlay the pressure of immigration and you have a dangerous cocktail.

This dissatisfaction brought about a realignment in the party political setup of many countries. The unease goes well beyond Germany, France and the UK. Italy, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Spain and others suffer from the very same symptoms.

* Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert. Twitter: @MeyerResources

The policy of the Putin regime toward religious minorities is “a continuation of Soviet religious policy,” albeit sometimes in a “lite” version, according to Aleksandr Soldatov, editor of the Credo portal, who adds that “unfortunately very few talk about the persecution of religious minorities” nowadays.

Soldatov’s comments came at a session of the Forum of Free Russia now meeting in Vilnius, a meeting of Russian opposition figures and experts who deserve high marks for taking up the issue of religious minorities even though the group has devoted relatively little attention to the situation of Russia’s ethnic minorities (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5C0B809C59C46).

Other participants in the panel gave evidence in support of Soldatov’s conclusions. Pavel Devushkin, a Lutheran pastor, denounced the Russian government’s persecution of Jehovah’s Witnesses and almost all forms of missionary activity. The moderator Daniil Konstantinov said that Buddhists were being deprived of contact with the Dalai Lama.

And Ruslan Kambiyev, a human rights inspector for the North Caucasus, said that the situation of Russia’s Muslims has deteriorated because many equate Islam with terrorism. As a result, they are prepared to accept the mistreatment of Muslims in society and in prisons and to restrict their religious rights.

When the communists ruled Russia, human rights activists within the country and Western governments and experts paid a great deal of attention to the ways in which religious believers were treated. But with Putin portraying himself as a religious person, ever fewer are doing so.

The forum is to be praised for calling attention to this issue, but it is one that deserves far more attention because for all but those in the four traditional faiths who are prepared to go along with Kremlin policy and its restrictions on the life of faith, the situation of believers now is about as bad as it was under the communist regime.

That must be exposed and stopped.

While Prime Minister Mahathir rebuilds the country, his designated successor, Anwar Ibrahim, is laying the ground for the agreed political transition in about two years’ time. The recent election in Anwar’s party had, however, taken a surprising turn.

Yang Razali Kassim*

On November 18, 2018, Anwar Ibrahim was officially elected president of Keadilan, the party he founded nearly 20 years ago. Taking over from his wife Dr Wan Azizah, who had stepped aside but remains as deputy prime minister, Anwar’s assumption to the post comes two decades late. But it was nevertheless a necessary step to bring him closer to the premiership should Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad step down in about two years, as agreed in a succession pact between them. A month earlier, Anwar had won hands down in a by-election in Port Dickson, giving him a parliament seat.

This two-step move – returning as MP and as party chief − was the critical precondition to being prime minister. It was a foregone conclusion that he would return to lead Keadilan, the preferred name of his People’s Justice Party (PKR) which just had its 13th national congress. But Anwar’s comeback to the pinnacle of the party that is now part of the Pakatan Harapan ruling coalition had been overshadowed by an unexpectedly intense electoral contest – some say power struggle. This was for the Number 2 position between two of his staunchest allies: Azmin Ali, the incumbent deputy president, and Rafizi Ramli, Azmin’s challenger.

Fierce Fight for Number 2

The fight for the post was so fierce that many watched in disbelief, wondering whether Anwar was losing control of his own vehicle. In the end, however, when the results were finally announced, Azmin and Rafizi hugged each other and patched up, much to the relief of everyone. Both are future leaders they did not want to lose.

Rafizi had mounted the challenge against Azmin which he initially framed as New Malaysia’s democracy in action. He disclosed his main reason later: it was his mission to protect Anwar’s trajectory as Mahathir’s successor. But Azmin managed to defend his seat amid accusations of vote-rigging, phantom voters and a flawed election process – hardly the kind of practices expected in a reformist party. Rafizi said he had decided not to contest the results and accepted his defeat, “to preserve party unity”. But his message had been delivered.

Protagonists-in-Waiting?

Azmin had been with Anwar since their days in UMNO, first as his private secretary when Anwar was finance minister and deputy prime minister. Azmin became Anwar’s loyal supporter when his boss was sacked by Mahathir in 1998 and subsequently, with a few others, helped Wan Azizah launch the reformasi movement while Anwar was in jail.

Azmin, now 54, had grown with the movement and risen with it, even beating off along the way two major challengers: Zaid Ibrahim, the former law minister, and Khalid Ibrahim, the former chief minister of Selangor state. Azmin ended up succeeding Khalid in Selangor before being elevated as economic affairs minister by Mahathir when the new cabinet was formed following the victory of Pakatan Harapan which Mahathir and Anwar jointly led.

Azmin’s rise from state to federal prominence had strengthened his base in Keadilan, as demonstrated by the successful defence of his seat – the slim victory notwithstanding. With increasing power comes increasing ambition, and this was noted by the local media.

“It is an open secret by now that Azmin had earlier entertained the idea of replacing the tiger on the hill by going for the presidency,” wrote Joceline Tan in The Star. If true, it is a move as ambitious as it was preposterous and suicidal, some say, going up against a political legend like Anwar.

Rafizi, meanwhile, has emerged as one of Anwar’s staunchest defenders since he was persuaded by the veteran politician to join Keadilan. A committed believer in the reformasi vision, he took a big pay cut and left a well-paying job in Petronas, the national oil company. Younger than Azmin by 13 years, Rafizi is a brilliant young British-trained chartered accountant and electrical engineer.

A former party secretary-general as well as vice-president, Rafizi is equally sharp as a political strategist. He was one of a handful, if not the only person, who was confident about the opposition winning in the 9 May general election by relying on data analytics. For him, any internal attempt to derail the rise of Anwar as prime minister is tantamount to treachery.

The Contending Narratives

Rafizi’s narrative centred around defending the Mahathir-Anwar succession plan. By deciding to challenge Azmin, Rafizi must have read the ground differently from most others; he must have been concerned about the vulnerability of the succession plan, given the chink in the Keadilan armour, which he feared could be exploited by “external forces” bent to block Anwar.

Rafizi said had he pushed ahead to question the legitimacy of Azmin’s victory, Anwar’s position as prime minister-in-waiting could be undermined; his enemies would surely have used it to question his suitability to be Mahathir’s successor.

“I decided not to draw out the contest, because if this continued, the one who gets attacked will be Anwar,” Rafizi said in his outgoing speech to the congress. “I observe WhatsApp chats, Facebook postings, sometimes even by the senior leadership, that disparage the efforts to elevate Anwar as PM. Some claim his time is over. Some claim it’s time for new faces to take over.”

Differences like these, he warned, should stop as they would only be exploited by outsiders to prevent Anwar from assuming the top post. Two months earlier, in an interview with The New Straits Times, Rafizi had also warned about the same risk.

“There are factions who are not comfortable with Anwar becoming the eighth prime minister after Mahathir,” he said. “We respect differences of opinion. But there should be no differences in opinion on who becomes the next prime minister.”

In his own wrap-up speech, Azmin pledged to continue supporting Anwar. “We are grateful that after 20 years Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is back to lead the party. I, together with colleagues, pledge to work with Anwar to face the challenges in the party.”

Divisive Forces At Work?

With such an opening act to this new phase in the succession politics of “New Malaysia”, the transition ahead to the post-Mahathir era looks set to be no less dramatic. The question on people’s minds is whether there would indeed be a closing of ranks after this.

Shamsul Iskandar Akin, who is also a deputy minister, urged members to stop trying to create friction between Anwar and Mahathir. “Dr Mahathir is the prime minister. After this it will be Anwar, who is the PKR president. Do not instigate or cause a conflict between them,” he said.

The same subject of “instigators” was also touched on by Anwar in his closing speech. The New Straits Times, in a front page report the next day, summarised that Anwar, as the new party leader, had “launched broadsides on three groups”: “lackeys who badly stained PKR’s reputation” in the party elections by instigating rivals; “people who want to pit me against Dr Mahathir”; and those who claimed he craved “special privileges” such as sponsored jets.

Who these “instigators” are remained unstated and therefore unclear. But “third forces” out to block Anwar’s ascendancy have been a common refrain in the rise, fall and rise again of Anwar Ibrahim since his entry into politics in the 1980s. Mahathir, acutely aware of this sensitivity given their tumultuous past, has lately pledged publicly to keep to his promise of a two-year timeframe; Anwar in turn has been studious in signalling that he was in no hurry for the top job.

*Yang Razali Kassim is Senior Fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

Japan’s hopes for using its X-2 Shinshin combat aircraft programme to leap into the forefront the global fighter jet business are increasingly challenged by a variety of technological, political, and economic complications.

By Richard A. Bitzinger*

Japan has high hopes for its X-2 Shinshin fighter jet, formerly known as the Advanced Technology Demonstrator – Experimental (ATD-X). The plane is the embodiment of many aspirations. It is Japan’s first totally indigenous fighter jet since World War II, and it is Tokyo’s contender for a state-of-the-art fifth-generation combat aircraft, to compete with the likes of the US F-35 or the Chinese J-20 fighters.

The X-2 is to become the basis for the F-3 Future Fighter Programme. Ultimately Tokyo expects to buy 100 F-3s, at total programme cost (R&D and procurement) of at least US$40 billion (it will probably be much higher). With the X-2/F-3, Japan is seeking to re-establish its position as being among the leading aerospace manufacturers, with has been long dominated by the United States and Europe.

Japan’s Post-War Fighter Aircraft Business

Since the end of World War II, just a handful of countries – the United States, the USSR/Russia, Britain, France, and Sweden – have controlled the global fighter jet industry, accounting for around 90 percent of all combat aircraft flown by all the world’s air forces. Japan – together with China, India, and South Korea – are trying to break up this cozy cartel. At the same time, these countries are learning that this is incredibly difficult: few things are more challenging than designing and developing modern fighter jets.

Now, the X-2 is experiencing a familiar pattern for the Asian aerospace sector: a heavily hyped unveiling and first flight, followed by the slow realisation that putting the plane into production is a staggering operation, one perhaps beyond Japan’s abilities. Most recently, the programme has been “put back,” and a decision on moving ahead with development will not be made until 2019 at the earliest.

For decades, Japan was the centre of Asian aerospace. It was the only country in the region that possessed a sizable military aircraft industry before World War II, and during the 1920s and 1930s it was a centre of aerospace innovation and invention. At the beginning of the war, in fact, the A6M “Zero” was one of the best combat fighters in the world.

After the war, Japan spent decades rebuilding its aviation and aerospace sector. It mostly built US fighters under licence (the F-86, F-4, F-15), and some modest trainer jets.

Japan’s Struggle for a Fighter Jet

Yet throughout the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, it still struggled to design and develop its own fighter jets.

Over and over, Japan tried – and more or less failed – to build its own indigenous aircraft, both civil and military. Japan’s most recent homegrown fighter jet, the F-2, was originally conceived as a “Rising Sun” fighter jet, a totally indigenous aircraft from stem to stern. Conceived in the 1980s, it was supposed to incorporate the latest technology found in Japan’s highly advanced industrial base, including the heavy use of nonmetal composites and an electronically scanned, phased array radar.

None of this happened. United States political pressure, plus the growing realisation that a totally indigenous fighter was technologically a stretch, forced the Japanese to scale back their ambitions. The F-2 that eventually emerged was essentially a modified US F-16, kitted out with an all-composite wing and new avionics.

Even this more modest programme proved to be a challenge for Japan’s aerospace industry. Structural problems, including cracks in its wing, set the programme back years. At the same time, each F-2 cost about three times as much as an F-16. As the programme progressed, procurement was cut from over 200 fighters to 130 to, eventually, just 98 planes. The last F-2 was delivered in 2011, leaving Japan with no fighter programme in production. Around the same time, the Japanese Ministry of Defence (MoD) placed an order for 42 F-35s.

Enter the X-2

By the mid-2000s, therefore, Japan’s aircraft industry faced a crisis of confidence. It had plenty of business, subcontracting for Boeing and Airbus on various commercial airliners, but few aircraft projects of its own. Hence, for the past decade Japan has been quietly working on the X-2 fifth-generation fighter. The X-2 hit its first major milestone in 2016, achieving first flight in April of that year.

Nevertheless, the X-2 has a long way to go before it metamorphoses into the F-3 – that is, before it becomes a series-production full-up combat aircraft. The X-2 is just a technology demonstrator; as Franz-Stefan Gady of the Diplomat put it, it is “a testbed platform for multiple technologies,” including next-generation electronically scanned array radar, multi-dimensional thrust vectoring, an indigenous low-bypass turbofan engine, and radar-absorbing composite materials.

As such, the X-2 is still basically “a flying box,” lacking the avionics, weaponry, and other systems that constitute a full-up fighter. Production of an “F-3” fighter will likely not begin until 2027 at the earliest. Moreover, it is likely that this plane could turn out to be so expensive – it is not inconceivable that a single F-3 could cost US$200 million or more – that Japan may buy far fewer than its intended 100 aircraft.

Japan’s Uncertain Aerospace Industry

The X-2/F-3, if successful, could shift the centre of gravity in the fighter jet industry from the North Atlantic closer to the Asia-Pacific. Certainly the Japanese are taking the X-2 seriously, and it has already more than $330 million on the programme. US aerospace giant Northrop Grumman has indicated its interest in joining the project, which underscores the X-2’s potential as a future cutting-edge fighter jet.

Moreover, if Japan should decide to export this fighter, it might seriously challenge the West’s predominance in this highly lucrative sector.

That, however, depends on a great many technological, economic, and political factors all coming together in a “harmonic convergence”. In fact, there are already rumours that the X-2 is on the chopping block. Although the MoD has denied that it is planning to scrap the programme, it is at the same time looking into buying additional F-35s. Any further delays in the X-2 programme do not augur well.

*Richard A. Bitzinger is a Visiting Senior Fellow with the Military Transformations Programme in the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. An earlier version of this Commentary appeared in Asia Times.

In a web-based study reported in the Canadian Journal of Cardiology, more than three quarters of French-speaking adults in Quebec, Canada, fall short of meeting current dietary guidelines regarding consumption of fruits and vegetables, whole grains, sodium, and saturated fats. The authors recommend stronger, more impactful actions to support everyone in adopting healthier dietary habits to reduce the risk of chronic diseases such as heart disease, diabetes, and cancer. While these observations relate specifically to the population analyzed, similar findings might apply to many other jurisdictions internationally if studied.

Unhealthy dietary habits have been identified as the second leading risk factor for mortality globally. “Despite years of efforts and campaigns aimed at having people consume more vegetables and fruits, low consumption of these healthy foods remains a major public health concern in the province of Quebec,” explained lead investigator Benoît Lamarche, PhD, Chair of Nutrition from the School of Nutrition and Institute of Nutrition and Functional Foods, Université Laval, Quebec, Canada. “Regular monitoring of the population’s food and nutrient intake is essential to develop effective nutrition-focused public health policies.”

In this study, Dr. Lamarche and colleagues report results from data collected as part of the PRÉDicteurs Individuels, Sociaux et Environnementaux (PREDISE) survey, a web-based analysis designed to assess the association between individual, social, and environmental factors, and adherence to current dietary guidelines in Canada. PREDISE was a multicenter cross-sectional study involving five research centers in five administrative regions in the province of Quebec. The aim of this study was to provide dietary intake estimates using an age- and sex-representative sample of French-speaking adults with Internet access from these regions. Dietary intake was estimated from the average of three validated web-based 24-hour recalls collected from 1,147 participants, over half of whom were woman.

Less than 25 percent of participants met Canada’s Food Guide recommendations for vegetable and fruit intake. Most participants reported consuming more than 2300 mg of sodium (prevalence 81 percent) and more than 10 percent of energy as saturated fats (74 percent). The mean Canadian Healthy Eating Index score on a scale of 0-100 was 54.5, reflecting poor diet quality according to current dietary recommendations.

“Comparison of these diet quality scores with scores measured in 2004 suggested no improvement, despite numerous efforts and campaigns to promote healthy eating over the years,” observed Dr. Lamarche. “Subgroups with a lower socioeconomic status are particularly at risk of having a low quality diet.

“These data emphasize the need for more effective nutrition-focused public health policies to maximize cardiovascular disease prevention at the population level,” he concluded. “This implies not only the need for nutrition education, but also a profound modification of the ‘toxic’ food environment to which the population is exposed.”

In an accompanying editorial, James M. Brophy, MD, PhD, of the McGill University Health Center, Centre for Health Outcomes Research, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, observed, “The authors’ conclusions about the need for more effective nutrition-focused public health policies to maximize cardiovascular disease prevention at the population level are very reasonable. The ultimate goal is not merely to enhance awareness/adherence of constantly evolving food guidelines, but to avoid further marginalization of the most deprived of our society by providing them with the educational and economic means to overcome existing nutritional barriers.”

Faces that are seen as competent are also perceived as more masculine, according to research published in Psychological Science, a journal of the Association for Psychological Science.

“Our research sheds light on the pernicious gender bias in how we perceive others — we judge masculine looking people as competent, a judgment that can affect our leadership choices,” explains psychology researcher DongWon Oh of Princeton University, first author on the research.

Oh and coauthors Elinor A. Buck and Alexander Todorov were interested in identifying the “visual ingredients” that influence how we perceive competence from individuals’ appearance.

To do this, the researchers used a computational model of competence that they had established in previous research. Using participant ratings of many different faces, the researchers identified the parameters that were most reliably associated with impressions of competence. They then built a model that allowed them to digitally alter face stimuli according to these specific parameters, producing faces that varied in perceived competence.

In one online experiment, the researchers used this model to present 33 participants with face stimuli that varied in competence. Some participants rated how competent the faces were, while others rated their attractiveness. The results showed that the faces designed to look more competent were rated as such, and they were also rated as more attractive, consistent with the “attractiveness halo” found in previous research.

But Oh and colleagues suspected that there were probably other components of appearance that signal competence.

“Using the computational methods we developed for visualizing appearance stereotypes, we can literally remove the attractiveness of the competent-looking faces,” says Oh. “We can then test whether ‘competent’ faces still appear competent and inspect what visual properties other than attractiveness drive the competence impressions.”

Using this new model, the researchers found that participants perceived more competent faces as more confident and more masculine, impressions that are not explained by attractiveness.

Another online experiment revealed a clear gender bias: When participants were asked to identify faces as either or female, they tended to rate more competent faces as male and less competent faces as female.

Together, these findings suggest that competence and masculinity are correlated components of first impressions based on appearance.

To investigate whether this relationship operates similarly for male faces and female faces, the researchers manipulated photorealistic images of male and female faces so that they varied in masculinity. They randomly assigned 250 online participants to rate the competence of either male faces or female faces.

Again, the data suggested a gender bias in first impressions: As male faces increased in masculinity, so did their perceived competence. For female faces, this relationship only held up to a point, after which more masculine female faces were actually perceived as less competent.

This is noteworthy because impressions of competence influence who we choose as our leaders: Research has shown that individuals with more competent-looking faces are more likely to be elected as high-ranking politicians such as US senators and as the heads of large companies.

“Problematically, how competent someone appears does not guarantee their actual competence,” Oh notes. “Needless to say, these gender biases pose a threat to social justice, creating unfair environments for everyone.”

The researchers hope to expand on this research, exploring the origins of this gender bias and how the bias might be mitigated. In addition, they are investigating whether there are systematic differences in the impressions we have of male and female faces.

The Supreme Court was presented with a relatively simple case when entities which did not approve the dissolution of Parliament challenged President Sirisena’s proclamation. It was a simple case because the latest amendment (19) made to the Constitution explicitly stated that the President “shall not” dissolve Parliament within the first four and a half years of its first meeting.

Many people like me expected the Supreme Court to deliver an “express” verdict following the first hearing itself, precisely because of the simplistic nature of the case. A quick verdict could have also been justified by the need to restore sanity and stability to the system.

The Court did not agree. First, it postponed the decision to December 7 and then formed an expanded bench to hear the case. Again, the Court deferred the decision to December 10. The implication being that, according to the opinion of the Court, it is not a simple and straightforward case to decide. When the case is not easy to determine, the verdict could go either way.

If the Court decision goes in favor of the President and his decision to dissolve Parliament before the stipulated four-and-a-half-year period, the delay and the expansion of the bench would serve as a shock absorber. A considerable amount of people expects the Court to disapprove the dissolution.

They will be disappointed and may criticize the Court for being corrupt. By delaying the verdict, the Court also allowed members of the bench to endure political pressure as too many political power players may be working to influence the decision of the Supreme Court. Hence, fingers crossed in term of the final decision of the Court.

A decision to uphold the dissolution of Parliament would create a bad and dangerous precedent. Reports of the court proceedings indicate that one of the main arguments of the respondents in this case was that the action of the President was critical to save the country from a serious predicament.

The reported “ambulance” analogy indicates that they believe that the measure should be approved even if the dissolution is illegal and unconstitutional. Approving such as an argument will prove to be disastrous for the country in the long term.

As far as I know, no political leader who grabbed power illegally ever stated that he/she had done it to promote a self-serving agenda. All illegal power-grabbing actions are justified by the need to serve the national interest. The current Sri Lanka situation is no different. Therefore, if this action is approved, Sri Lanka presidents in the future can dissolve parliament any time they want without any restrictions making people’s sovereignty a mockery.

They can justify untimely dissolution of parliament by using one or another existing issue and painting them as a crisis. Hence, a decision to uphold the dissolution will confer unlimited powers on the president as parliament will be unable to exercise any control on the chief executive. Parliament will be under constant fear of dissolution because any challenge will force them to face new elections. This will transform the already powerful presidency into a formally semi-authoritarian institution by irreparably damaging the balance of power between the president and parliament.

One does not need to remind readers that Sri Lanka is always in some sort of crisis. It is a land of protests and strikes. There are plenty of problems that can easily be exploited by a motivated president to justify the dissolution of parliament. Moreover, a crisis could be manufactured as well.

The existing problem itself is a manufactured crisis.

The Court needs to take into consideration two different types of crises that encompass the current imbroglio. When Mahinda Rajapaksa was appointed Prime Minister by the President, parliament did not have a problematic environment. Ranil Wickremesinghe proved his majority in Parliament without the votes of the UPFA in April. However, it was the outside environment that was used to argue that the country was in a crisis and needed to be saved by a new power-structure consisting of Sirisena and Rajapaksa at its helm.

The depreciating Sri Lankan rupee and the economic woes of the country were cited by the Sirisena-Rajapaksa combo to dismiss Wickremesinghe headed administration and install a new regime headed by Mahinda Rajapaksa. The alleged corruption of the government was also discussed considerably. Of course, the Rajapaksa headed government did not have the required numbers in Parliament leading to a chaotic disgrace in the national legislature. The inability to prove their majority and the inability to face the challenge of Parliament to President Sirisena and Rajapaksa government, eventually forced the President to dissolve Parliament.

So, when the respondents in the Supreme Court argue that the dissolution was necessary to deal with the crisis, which crisis are they talking about? The perceived crisis in the country or the crisis in Parliament?

The crisis in the national legislature could have been resolved by allowing the party with a provable majority to continue the administration and have the election after four and a half years or five years. It was the undemocratic move of the President that ignited the parliamentary crisis. Hence, the President cannot use the Supreme Court to take advantage of a crisis he himself created. Upholding the decision to dissolve Parliament would amount to rewarding the wrongdoers. Also, the way the crisis was manufactured and used to dissolve Parliament successfully may serve as a blueprint for future violations.

Hence, the Supreme Court decision on the dissolution of Parliament by President Sirisena would be a landmark verdict regarding democracy in Sri Lanka in the long term.

By William McHenry

The global leadership of the Orthodox Church, Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople, recognized the independence of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church within the Orthodox religion and, more importantly, from the Russian Orthodox Church. This decision triggered an immediate backlash from the leadership of the Russian Orthodox Church, which subsequently cut ties with the Orthodox leadership in Constantinople, and compared Constantinople’s decision to the “Great Schism of 1054 that split western and eastern Christianity.” Although the management structure of the Orthodox Church may seem trivial, it is the latest in a series of escalating cultural clashes between Kyiv and Moscow.

Undeniably, ecclesiastical independence from the Russian Orthodox has long been a political goal of Ukraine — especially since the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. It has heightened geopolitical tensions and is fueling nationalistic sentiments during a critical period in Ukrainian politics—as the country has parliamentary elections early next year. Accordingly, US policymakers should be wary of the intensifying cultural friction between Russia and Ukraine as the two countries remain in a long-simmering military conflict.

As clerical expert Sergey Chapnin notes, the Ukrainian church has long sought independence as it has second largest population of Orthodox Christians in the world—behind Russia. However, unlike many other major Orthodox countries, its church has remained subservient to the Moscow based leadership within the church’s hierarchy. This is despite their mutual historical and religious ties, and that Kyiv is considered the founding place of the Christianity in Russia. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukraine’s religious leadership has pushed for autonomous status, but always lacked the political will to achieve this goal.

Nonetheless, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has pushed the Ukrainian government to sever cultural ties with Russia. For instance, the current government in Ukraine has begun removing historical monuments to the Soviet Union that are perceived as reminders to when Kyiv was ruled from Moscow, and, more controversial, has passed laws that favor the teaching of the Ukrainian language over other languages, most notably, Russian in schools. Although these policies have alienated minority groups in Ukraine and angered its neighbors, they have nonetheless served as significant political rallying cries for the majority of Ukrainians against Russian aggression.

Accordingly, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church’s goal of gaining autocephaly from Russia has become the next issue in the culture war between Kyiv and Moscow. More importantly, the armed conflict in Eastern Ukraine has highlighted the political dimensions of this religious issue. Even the religious nature of the burial rites for soldiers who have died in this conflict highlights the fraught political nature of this issue and makes Russia’s control over the church an untenable situation. As Chapin details, “people of the same faith—members of the same Russian Orthodox church—are killing each other in an armed conflict,” and as a result, Ukrainian priests began omitting references to the Moscow patriarchy during services. Indeed, there is little doubt that the conflict has delegitimized the Russian church amongst the population of Ukraine, because the church leadership in Moscow did not denounce Russian political actions that have contributed to the bloodshed in Eastern Ukraine.

Unsurprisingly, the current President of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, who is facing tough prospects for re-election in 2019, has made this a central goal of his administration. For Poroshenko, the church gaining autonomy from Russia could be cast as a matter of sovereignty for Ukraine, and he has portrayed himself as a crusader for Ukraine’s freedom from Russia. When Ukraine was granted autocephaly he said: “God has seen the Ukrainian people’s struggle for independence.”

Poroshenko and other presidential candidates have been stoking Ukrainian nationalism to increase their popularity come election time. And while supporting the Ukrainian Orthodox churches’ independence is relatively low risk, there are other politically popular nationalistic issues that, if acted upon, could have dire consequences for Ukraine. Some candidates, including career politician and current frontrunner, Yulia Tymoshenko, have campaigned on escalating the war in Eastern Ukraine. By praising the military, Tymoshenko is raising her political profile with a nationalistic overtone in order to demonize Russia. While others, including the Poroshenko administration, have not condemned nor curtailed the increasing political power of violent far-right nationalistic groups.

US policymakers should recognize the cultural war generated by Ukraine’s struggle for autonomous status in the Orthodox church as a trend toward increasingly dangerous nationalistic politics in Ukraine. Indeed, the nationalistic political pressure of the election could escalate tensions with Russia to the point that significant military conflict could return to eastern Ukraine—a conflict that the US has invested considerable political pressure into resolving. Especially given that earlier this year the United States’ agreed to sell lethal weapons to Ukraine and has recently conducted military exercises with the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Renewed conflict would also damage Ukraine’s fragile economy, which has only just started to recover from the previous crisis at the beginning of the war.

The opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints expressed by the authors are theirs alone and don’t reflect the official position of Geopoliticalmonitor.com or any other institution.

By Laurence M. Vance*

By Ryan McMaken*

Historian Ralph Raico was one of the great popularizers and scholars of European decentralism. That is, Raico recognized and supported the idea that Europe’s traditions in favor of human rights and limited political power grew out of Europe’s long history of decentralized and fragmentary politics. Many historians over the centuries, such as Lord Acton, have noted how Europe — not including Russia and its frontiers — differed from other civilizations of the time in its lack of any single, centralized political power.

According to Raico:

Although geographical factors played a role, the key to western development is to be found in the fact that, while Europe constituted a single civilization — Latin Christendom — it was at the same time radically decentralized. In contrast to other cultures — especially China, India, and the Islamic world — Europe comprised a system of divided and, hence, competing powers and jurisdictions.1

This lack of political power then eventually allowed Europe to become an economic power, since as Jean Baechler contended:

The first condition for the maximization of economic efficiency is the liberation of civil society with respect to the state… The expansion of capitalism owes its origins and raison d’être to political anarchy. (emphasis in original)

At the core of much of this was the de facto rivalry between church and state, which has its roots in the Roman Empire. It was during this period that the Church — especially in the West — began to take shape as an institution that could begin to compete with the power of the Roman state, at least in moral authority among the people.

In his lectures, Raico would use as an example of this rivalry the case of Saint Ambrose — whose feast day is on December 7 — who excommunicated and generally opposed the Emperor Theodosius in the wake of his massacre of 7,000 men, women, and children in Thessalonica in 390 AD.

Only after Theodosius was deemed to have been sufficiently and publicly humiliated over the matter, was his excommunication rescinded.

Churchmen were not always so successful in such efforts, and the exile of St. John Chrysostom (forced on him by another emperor despite the protests of the pope in Rome) illustrated there was to be no quick victory for either side in the church-state rivalry. Nevertheless, the actions of Church leaders like Ambrose set the tone for what was to come. Quickly fading was the idea that the Roman state must rule unchallenged for the sake of preserving peace and civilization. Rome had once mimicked an oriental despotism, in which the supreme political ruler was himself regarded as god-like, or even truly divine. By Ambrose’s day, churchmen had long since condemned such ideas. And they would not return until the rise of European totalitarianism centuries later.

This didn’t mean, of course, that Emperors and Churchmen were always at odds. As any well-informed cynical observer of politics would suspect, the Roman state supported church institutions when it was convenient — and opposed the church otherwise. Many Churchmen were happy to reciprocate.

Eventually, though, the opposition to untrammeled state power that was haphazard in Ambrose’s day would become institutionalized in later centuries. According to Raico:

Berman, moreover, focuses attention on a critical development that began in the eleventh century: the creation by Pope Gregory VII and his successors of a powerful “corporate, hierarchical church … independent of emperors, kings, and feudal lords,” and thus capable of foiling the power-seeking of temporal authority … In this way, Berman bolsters Lord Acton’s analysis of the central role of the Catholic church in generating Western liberty by forestalling any concentration of power such as marked the other great cultures, and thus creating the Europe of divided and conflicting jurisdictions.2

Thus, by the middle ages, it was clear that in Christendom, at least, there was to be no single political authority which could exercise monopolies over the rest.

In spite of this, many critics of religious authorities continue to make absurd charges about the Middle Ages, claiming that it was marked by “theocracy” or that it was even ruled by a “totalitarian” religious hierarchy.

The reality was anything but totalitarian or theocratic:

Decentralization of power also came to mark the domestic arrangements of the various European polities. Here feudalism — which produced a nobility rooted in feudal right rather than in state-service — is thought by a number of scholars to have played an essential role. Through the struggle for power within the realms, representative bodies came into being, and princes often found their hands tied by the charters of rights (Magna Carta, for instance) which they were forced to grant their subjects. In the end, even within the relatively small states of Europe, power was dispersed among estates, orders, chartered towns, religious communities, corps, universities, etc., each with its own guaranteed liberties. The rule of law came to be established throughout much of the Continent.3

Nevertheless, supporters of strong, large states in modern times insist on characterizing this period as too anarchic, disorderly, or irrational. For many of a modern mindset, political system should be uniform, planned, and above all, monopolistic. They want “stability,” by which they mean strong states that can easily force their will on all potential competitors. Calling for anything less, we are told, is “treason.”

Such thinking, however, would be alien to the mind of the typical man or woman of Christendom 1,000 years ago.

While high-minded political theories about perfectly planned societies look good on paper, the real-world experience of Christendom suggests otherwise. After all, the competing powers of church, state, nobility, towns, and monasteries led to greater demands for clear legal protections of property rights and political privileges.

By contrast, it was in those parts of the world were demands for political freedoms could be ignored with impunity:

The meaning of the European miracle can be better seen if European developments are contrasted with those in Russia. Colin White lists, as the determining factors of Russian backwardness “a poor resource and hostile risk environment … an unpropitious political tradition and institutional inheritance, ethnic diversity, and the weakness of such key groups limiting state power as the church and landed oligarchy.” … After the destruction of Kievan Rus by the Tatars and the rise of Muscovy, Russia was characterized for centuries by the virtual absence of the rule of law, including security for persons and property.4

The eventual rise of the modern nation-state in the West would give a taste to those far West of the Russian frontier. The Thirty Years’ War, the Great War, the French Reign of Terror, the Napoleonic Wars, the Holocaust, and the Second World War, would all eventually provide countless examples of the down side of centralized power.

It has been no accident that in Europe (and in its outposts in Australia and the Americas) we find the birthplace of the liberal tradition we associate with so many freedoms in the economic and religious spheres, and with the unrivaled expansion of material wealth and scientific knowledge.

The calls we continually hear in our modern political milieu for ever-greater centralization and augmentation of political power pose a grave threat to this tradition.

About the author:
*Ryan McMaken (@ryanmcmaken) is a senior editor at the Mises Institute. Send him your article submissions for Mises Wire and The Austrian, but read article guidelines first. Ryan has degrees in economics and political science from the University of Colorado, and was the economist for the Colorado Division of Housing from 2009 to 2014. He is the author of Commie Cowboys: The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre.

Source:
This article was published by the MISES Institute

Notes:

• 1. See “The Theory of Economic Development and the European Miracle” in The Collapse of Development Planning, edited by Peter J. Boettke.
• 2. Ibid.
• 3. Ibid.
• 4. Ibid.

Honour norms benefit from isolation and segregation. Every twelfth ninth grader lives in a family where violence is used to control and protect the reputation of the family and extended family. These are some of the findings of a new survey of honour-based oppression in Swedish cities. Örebro University led the study.

The study comprises 235 face-to-face interviews and a questionnaire study of some 6,000 ninth graders in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö. Among those interviewed are persons with personal experiences of living in some form of honour-based oppression. Included are also those who, in their work at various authorities and organisations, meet people subjected to honour-based violence or oppression.

“It is possible to distinguish patterns in the material. Honour norms benefit from isolation on the individual, group and community level. One example is segregation. This may be the result of living isolated as a minority, because of war or flight as a refugee, or discrimination in the housing and job markets, etc. Another is racism,” explains Rúna Baianstovu, a researcher in social work at Örebro University and who headed up the study.

On the other hand, the study shows that economic, political, religious and cultural mobility make it more challenging to uphold honour norms.

Seven to nine percent

In addition to the interviews, the study includes a questionnaire to some 6,000 ninth graders in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö. They were asked to respond to questions about relationships, experiences of violence and restrictions in the home, at school and during their spare time. The results show that between seven and nine per cent of the youth live in a family where violence is used to control and protect the reputation of the family and extended family.

“The amount of youth living with violent norms doesn’t differ much between these cities. But when it comes to those that are required to retain their virginity and abstain from potential love relations until they marry, Malmö sticks out. Twenty per cent are subjected to virginity norms,” says Sofia Strid, gender researcher at Örebro University and responsible for the quantitative substudy.

The results from Malmö are higher than both Stockholm and Gothenburg, where 10 and 13 per cent are living under virginity norms.

“Girls are mostly the victims. The majority of these youth live in socially disadvantaged areas. Our research shows that the risk of being a victim of honour-based oppression is greater in religious families and in families where the mother is not gainfully employed,” says Sofia Strid.

Schools play a vital role

Another conclusion is that the majority of the subjected youth have low trust in the police and social services, but 70 per cent would turn to a teacher or school nurse if they needed help.

“It is, therefore, our recommendation that schools develop groups that have an understanding of honour-based problems and who can take care of pupils with an open mind,” says Rúna Baianstovu.

At the same time about half of the ninth graders who were the subject of honour-based violence repeatedly, did not believe that they were in need of help. The reason for this is that they did not think someone else would understand and their situation at home would only worsen.

“The measures taken by society are also affected by stereotypes of certain groups. The consequences are that the victims of violence would rather be punished on the individual level and abstain from seeking help than expose themselves and their group to discrimination,” says Sofia Strid.

More studies

The study of honour-based violence and oppression has led to recommendations in many areas – among these schools, social services, out of school activities and preventive measures – which the cities may use. Rúna Baianstovu and Sofia Strid agree that the study should be followed up with an interview-based survey among youth.

“We have now interviewed individuals with experience of honour-based oppression and societal measures. These people are today living under stable circumstances. We have missed however those who haven’t received help as well as those who, despite receiving help, still live with honour-based violence,” says Rúna Baianstovu.

Generally speaking, magnetism and the lossless flow of electrical current (“superconductivity”) are competing phenomena that cannot coexist in the same sample. However, for building supercomputers, synergetically combining both states comes with major advantages as compared to today’s semiconductor technology, which has come under pressure due to its high power consumption and resulting heat production. Researchers from the Department of Physics at the University of Konstanz have now demonstrated that the lossless electrical transfer of magnetically encoded information is possible. This finding enables enhanced storage density on integrated circuit chips and, at the same time, significantly reduces the energy consumption of computing centres. The results of this study have been published in the current issue of the scientific journal “Nature Communications”.

The miniaturisation of the semiconductor technology is approaching its physical limits. For more than 70 years, information processing in computers has been realized by creating and transferring electrical signals, which requires energy that is then released as heat. This dissipation results in a temperature increase in the building blocks, which, in turn, requires complex cooling systems. Heat management is one of the big challenges in miniaturization. Therefore, efforts are currently made worldwide to reduce waste heat in data processing and telecommunication.

A collaboration at the University of Konstanz between the experimental physics group led by Professor Elke Scheer and the theoretical physics group led by Professor Wolfgang Belzig uses an approach based on dissipation-free charge transport in superconducting building blocks. Magnetic materials are often used for information storage. Magnetically encoded information can, in principle, also be transported without heat production by using the magnetic properties of electrons, the electron spin. Combining the lossless charge transport of superconductivity with the electronic transport of magnetic information – i.e. “spintronics” – paves the way for fundamentally novel functionalities for future energy-efficient information technologies.

The University of Konstanz researchers address a major challenge associated with this approach: the fact that in conventional superconductors the current is carried by pairs of electrons with opposite magnetic moments. These pairs are therefore nonmagnetic and cannot carry magnetic information. The magnetic state, by contrast, is formed by magnetic moments that are aligned in parallel to each other, thereby suppressing superconducting current.

“The combination of superconductivity, which operates without heat generation, with spintronics, transferring magnetic information, does not contradict any fundamental physical concepts, but just naïve assumptions about the nature of materials”, Elke Scheer says. Recent findings suggest that by bringing superconductors into contact with special magnetic materials, electrons with parallel spins can be bound to pairs carrying the supercurrent over longer distances through magnets. This concept may enable novel electronic devices with revolutionary properties.

Under the supervision of Elke Scheer, Dr Simon Diesch performed an experiment that clarifies the creation mechanism of such electron pairs with parallel spin orientation. “We showed that it is possible to create and detect these spin-aligned electron pairs”, Simon Diesch explains. The design of the system and the interpretation of the measurement results rely on the doctoral thesis of Dr Peter Machon in the field of theoretical physics, which was conducted under the supervision of Wolfgang Belzig.

“It is important to find materials that enable such aligned electron pairs. Ours is therefore not only a physics but also a materials science project”, Elke Scheer remarks. Researchers from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) provided the tailor-made samples consisting of aluminium and europiumsulfide. Aluminium is a very well investigated superconductor, enabling a quantitative comparison between theory and experiment. Europiumsulfide is a ferromagnetic insulator, an important material property for the realisation of the theoretical concept, which maintains its magnetic properties even in very thin layers of only a few nanometres in thickness as used here. Using a scanning tunnelling microscope developed at the University of Konstanz, spatially and energetically resolved measurements of the charge transport of the aluminium-europiumsulfide samples were performed at low temperatures. Contrary to commercial instruments, the scanning tunnelling microscope based at the Scheer lab has been optimized for ultimate energy resolution and for operation in varying magnetic fields.

The voltage dependence of the charge transport through the samples is indicative of the energy distribution of the electron pairs and allows accurate determination of the composition of the superconducting state. To this end, a theory previously developed by the Belzig group and tailored to describe the aluminium-europiumsulfide interface was applied. This theory will enable the researchers to describe much more complex electrical circuits and samples in the future. The energy spectra predicted by the theory agree with the experimental findings, providing direct proof of the magnetic electron pairs.

Furthermore, the experimental-theoretical collaboration resolved existing contradictions regarding the interpretation of such spectra. With these results, the University of Konstanz physicists hope to reveal the high potential of superconducting spintronics for enhancing or replacing semiconductor technology.

Characters in the Game of Thrones TV series are more likely to die if they do not switch allegiance, and are male, according to an article published in the open access journal Injury Epidemiology.

Researchers at Macquarie University, Australia, evaluated the deaths of all important Game of Thrones characters across seven seasons of the show and found that characters were more likely to survive if they switched allegiances, such as Tyrion Lannister who switches allegiances between the houses Lannister and Targaryen.

The risk of death was also greater for characters that were ‘lowborn’ (not a Lord or Lady), compared to those that were ‘highborn’.

Dr Reidar Lystad, injury epidemiologist at the Australian Institute of Health Innovation and corresponding author of the study, said: “The risk of death is high among characters in Game of Thrones. By the end of the seventh season, more than half of the characters had died – 186 out of the 330 characters we included in this study – with violent deaths being the most common by far.”

Dr Lystad added: “While these findings may not be surprising for regular viewers, we have identified several factors that may be associated with better or worse survival, which may help us to speculate about who will prevail in the final season.”

The authors found that the majority of deaths occurred in Westeros (80.1%), and the most common place of death was in the home. The most common causes of death were injuries (73.7%), and particularly wounds of the head and neck, including 13 decapitations.

Only two deaths from natural causes occurred across the seven seasons of the show: Maester Aemon and Old Nan, who both died of old age.

The probability of dying within the first hour after first appearing on screen was around 14%. The survival time of characters ranged from 11 seconds to 57 hours and 15 minutes.

The median survival time was estimated to be 28 hours and 48 minutes.

The researchers collected data on mortality and survival of 330 characters from all 67 episodes from seasons one to seven of Game of Thrones. They recorded data on the sociodemographic status of the characters, including their sex, social status, type of occupation, religious affiliation, and allegiance, alongside their survival time, and the circumstances of their death.

This information was used to quantify predictors of death. The researchers crosschecked all of their data with Internet Movie Database (IMDb) and Game of Thrones Wiki.

University of Sydney authors who led the research said the Mamil study was prompted by media attention given to depicting and satirising this group and the importance of physical activity for preventing lifestyle diseases like cardiovascular disease.

“The origins of the Mamil species are unclear, but the first descriptions, from around 2010, were characterised by middle-aged men wishing to break free from midlife crises and to obtain a new lease on life by purchasing an extravagant, slick, highly accessorised bicycle with a design fit for the Champs-Élysées,” say the authors in the MJA report.

Key findings

The proportion of middle aged men aged 45-65 years who cycled at least once in the previous year nearly doubled from 11 percent (2002-04) to 20.8 percent (2016)

The proportion of middle aged men aged 45-65 years who cycled at least once a week in the previous year more than doubled from 6.2 percent (2002-04) to 13.2 percent (2016)

The proportion of middle aged men aged 40-59 years who cycle to work hasn’t changed between 2006 (1.1 percent) and 2016 (1.3 percent)

Previously published data show the proportion of middle-aged men from high income suburbs who cycled at least weekly more than doubled over a 14-year study period, from 7.5 percent (2002-04) to 17.4 percent (2016).

Concurrent trends in newspaper reporting on Mamils are correlated with data showing the increasing prevalence of weekend cycling among affluent, middle aged men.

Media tracking data reveals a marked increase in media reporting on Mamils since 2010, with a peak in 2014. Overall, there were about 150 references to ‘Mamils’ each year in major print media, mostly in the United Kingdom (60 percent of mentions) or Australia (31 percent of mentions).

Lead author Professor Adrian Bauman of the University of Sydney said: “We found that cycling by middle-aged men has increased since 2002-04, supporting reports of the growth of the Mamil species.

“However, most are weekend superheroes who do not cycle to work during the week.

“The habitats of Mamils are affluent urban environments, often near the water, where Mamils meet in groups to channel their inner Cadel Evans.”

Paleontologists from Russia have described a new dinosaur, the Volgatitan. Seven of its vertebrae, which had remained in the ground for about 130 million years, were found on the banks of the Volga, not far from the village of Slantsevy Rudnik, five kilometers from Ulyanovsk. The study has been published in the latest issue of Biological Communications.

The Volgatitan belongs to the group of sauropods – giant herbivorous dinosaurs with a long neck and tail, who lived on Earth about 200 to 65 million years ago. Weighing around 17 tons, the ancient reptile from the banks of the Volga was not the largest among its relatives. The scientists described it from seven caudal vertebrae. The bones belonged to an adult dinosaur which is manifested by neural arches (parts of the vertebrae protecting the nerves and blood vessels), which completely merged with the bodies of the vertebrae.

The remains of the dinosaur were discovered near the village of Slantsevy Rudnik. This is where, in 1982, Vladimir Efimov discovered three large vertebrae that had fallen out of a high cliff. Later, in 1984-1987, three nodules of limestone fell off, which contained the remaining vertebrae. In his works, the head of the Undorovsky Paleontology Museum called the unusual finds “giant vertebrae of unknown taxonomic affiliation”.

“In the early 1990s, Vladimir Efimov showed photographs of the bones to Lev Nesov, a well-known Leningrad paleontologist,” recollected Alexander Averianov. Lev Nesov thought that the vertebrae belonged to sauropods, giant herbivorous dinosaurs. In 1997, Vladimir Efimov published a preliminary note about this find in the Paleontological Journal. He referred to the vertebrae as a sauropod of the Brachiosauridae family. Last July, I finally managed to visit him in Undory and study the bones, and also managed to determine that they belonged to the new taxon of titanosaurs.”

The dinosaur received a scientific name – Volgatitan simbirskiensis. It comes from the Volga River and the city of Simbirsk (currently, Ulyanovsk). Titans are ancient Greek gods known for their large size. Therefore, according to a paleontological tradition, this word is used in many scientific names of sauropods from the group of titanosaurs. It is also part of the name of the group.

Today, along with the Volgatitan from Russia, 12 valid dinosaur taxa have already been described. There are only three sauropods among them: Tengrisaurus starkovi, Sibirotitan astrosacralis and Volgatitan simbirskiensis. The first two are the first sauropods in Russia, which were also studied by St Petersburg University scientists in 2017. According to Aleksandr Averianov, the description of dinosaur taxa in recent years has become possible due to the progress in understanding the anatomy and phylogeny of dinosaurs. In addition, the Russian sauropod allowed scientists to learn more about how these species of ancient reptiles had lived and developed.

“Previously, it was believed that the evolution of titanosaurs took place mainly in South America with some taxa moving into North America, Europe and Asia only in the Late Cretaceous,” explained the St Petersburg University professor. In Asia, representatives of a broader group of titanosauriform, such as the recently described Siberian titanium, dominated in the early Cretaceous. However, the recent description of the Tengrisaurus from the Early Cretaceous of Transbaikal Region and the finding of the Volgatitan indicate that titanosaurs in the Early Cretaceous were distributed much more widely; and, perhaps, important stages of their evolution took place in Eastern Europe and Asia.”

All Palestinian territories occupied by the regime of Israel are within the target range of Hezbollah’s missiles, the movement’s second-in-command Sheikh Naim Qassem said.

In an interview with al-Vefagh newspaper, Sheikh Qassem said in case of outbreak of a war, all areas occupied by Israel, including its capital Tel Aviv, will be under the threat of attacks and “there is not a single point in the occupied territories out of reach of Hezbollah’s missiles.”

He said the Zionists cannot tolerate such a high level of threats in confrontation with Hezbollah, which is why they have no motive for entering another war with Lebanon.

The deterrent rules that Hezbollah has created in the face of Israel have prevented the Zionist regime from taking any action against Lebanon, he added.

The Hezbollah official also touched on the situation in Syria, hailing the victories gained by the Damascus government and its allies.

Stressing the need for a political solution to the crisis in Syria, Sheikh Qassem denounced the US for obstructing the political process.

On December 1, Hezbollah released a video, warning that if the Israeli regime makes any act of aggression against the Arab country, it would regret it.

The video shows Hezbollah Secretary General Seyed Hassan Nasrallah, warning that any aggression on Lebanon would definitely be responded to.

It also shows a number of Israeli sites such as military bases, nuclear sites, the Israeli military headquarters in Tel Aviv, and the Hezbollah missiles.

In a similar warning earlier in November, Nasrallah had said that the Lebanese resistance movement will retaliate against any Israeli attack or air raid on the Arab country.

Labour politicians are outraged and calling for a probe after a report that a McCarthy style charity has received £2 million in government money and targeted Jeremy Corbyn, straying from tackling so-called Russian disinformation.

The Institute for Statecraft, based in Scotland, initially seems to be a small organization which claims to counter alleged Russian propaganda by forming communities of journalists and influencers who use social media to push back on any so-called disinformation.

However, leaked documents provided to the Daily Record show that the organization’s Integrity Initiative isn’t as grassroots as it appears on the surface. In fact, it’s apparently funded with £2 million of Foreign Office cash and run by British military intelligence specialists.

What’s more is that the newspaper has reported that it launched its own investigation which found “worrying evidence” that the organization’s official Twitter account has been used to attack Jeremy Corbyn, his Labour Party, and other officials within the party.

And of course, there was some anti-Russia comments thrown in for good measure – such as one tweet which quoted a newspaper article calling Corbyn a “useful idiot” with “open visceral anti-Westernism [that] helped the Kremlin cause, as surely as if he had been secretly peddling Westminster tittle-tattle for money.”

“What he has done, wittingly or unwittingly, is work with the Kremlin agenda,” a newspaper report retweeted by the Integrity Initiative tweet states.

Although the Integrity Initiative’s apparent mission was first revealed last month, the Daily Record’s Sunday report about its targeting of Corbyn and the Labour party has left the party’s members more than a little angry.

“It is simply outrageous that the clearly mis-named ‘Integrity Initiative’ – funded by the Foreign Office to the tune of £2.25 million over the past two years – has routinely been using its Twitter feed to disseminate personal attacks and smears against the Leader of the Opposition, the Labour Party and Labour officials,” Emily Thornberry MP, Labour’s Shadow Foreign Secretary said in her statement.

Labour MP Chris Williamson also chimed in, calling any such activity “unacceptable in any democracy.”

The Integrity Initiative’s spokesman Stephen Dalziel has said he is “not aware” of any Corbyn attacks on the official social media account. “I’m not the one who controls the Twitter account. If it was criticism of one of our politicians, then that shouldn’t be on there.”

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman said on Sunday the Kingdom is keen to maintain the entity of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and strengthen its current and future role.

“In order to enhance the security, stability, development, prosperity and wellbeing of the citizens of member states, the GCC has become our fundamental asset,” said King Salman.
King Salman welcomed leaders and heads of delegations from the six GCC countries, including the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar, for the 39th GCC Summit in the Saudi Arabian capital, Riyadh.

However, Qatar sent its state minister of foreign affairs to head its delegation to the summit, which drew criticism from Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Khalid bin Ahmed, who tweeted: “Qatar’s emir should have accepted the fair demands (of the boycotting states) and attended the summit.”

On regional developments, the king said Iran continues to promote terrorism and threaten regional stability, and that the Iranian regime is pursuing its aggressive policies and interfering in the internal affairs of other countries.

King Salman said this required all of the GCC member states to work with international partners to maintain regional and global security and stability, and to insist on achieving full and adequate guarantees towards Iran’s nuclear program.

King Salman also stressed that the Kingdom continues to defend Arab and Islamic issues in international forums.

“The Palestinian cause is at the forefront of our concerns and the Kingdom seeks to achieve the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people, including the establishment of an independent state with East Jerusalem as its capital,” he added.

Saudi Arabia called on the international community to assume its responsibilities to protect the Palestinian people from the brutal Israeli practices, “which are meant to provoke the sentiments of Arabs, Muslims and peace-loving people.”

On the war in Yemen, King Salman said that the “Arab coalition was keen to accept a request from the legitimate Yemeni government to rescue the country and its people from a group that turned on the government with the intent of tampering with the country’s security and stability.”

He said the coalition countries also worked to restore hope to the Yemeni people through relief and humanitarian assistance programs, in order to reach a political solution to the Yemeni crisis, in accordance with UN Security Council resolution 2216, the Gulf Initiative and its executive mechanism, and the outcome of Yemen’s comprehensive national dialogue.

The Kingdom also called for a political solution to end the Syrian war and the establishment of a transitional government that would guarantee Syrian unity and the departure of foreign forces and terrorist groups.

King Salman said the Kingdom is also keen to build strong and strategic relations with Iraq, which he described as “a key pillar for the Arab security system.”

Following the closed-door meeting, member states adopted the Riyadh Declaration, which included seven action points that tackled several areas.

The first point was to establish a roadmap to achieve integration among the GCC states to develop growth and prosperity, in order to strengthen regional security and stability.

In the field of joint defense, they committed to appointing a unified GCC military commander as an important step to complete the joint defense system.

The leaders stressed the utmost importance of developing a unified and effective GCC foreign policy, based on the Statute of the Council and working to preserve its interests and gains, while avoiding regional and international conflicts.

They affirmed their support for the Palestinian cause and the unity of the Palestinian people, as well as a solution to the conflict in Yemen and the Syrian crisis.

Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Adel Al-Jubeir, said that all the GCC countries represent one family and any dispute that occurs among its members is normal.

“It may occur within the same family. It remains a simple matter that will not be difficult to resolve, especially considering our friendly relations that are bound by our common blood and destiny,” Al-Jubeir said during a press conference following the meeting, adding that member states “always ensure to address differences with equal attention and seriousness.”

He added that the Kingdom is looking forward to a response from the Qatari side to end the dispute, with a commitment to apply the specified conditions laid out by the rest of the members.

Al-Jubeir stressed that the “truth is firm and durable, as long as the GCC countries share a common destiny and realize that their unity is a force that will always be influential if we effectively agreed on all regional and international economical, political and security issues.

Al-Jubeir said: “Differences with brothers in Qatar are not what some people imagine, but some Qatari politicians have harmed the GCC in general, and this is contrary to the joint mechanism of action that our countries in the Gulf region have adopted regionally or internationally on the cultural, economic, security and political levels.”

In the case of murdered Saudi Journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Jubeir dismissed the Turkish idea of extradition of Saudi defendants accused of involvement to be tried in Turkey.

Speaking during the meeting, Kuwait’s Emir, Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, thanked King Salman for his generous invitation in hosting the 39th session and said, “the convening of this session of our distinguished council at its scheduled date, despite the circumstances we are going through, confirms our care for the GCC and the continuation of its assemblies.”

“It also reflects our understanding of the achievements we have reached within its framework and our efforts to preserve them.”

“We are aware of the situation in our region, the serious challenges facing it and its alarming escalation, which calls on us to reflect our unity and to strengthen our joint action to support our march.”

The Emir also warned against media campaigns that he said have threatened Gulf unity.

“We call for an end to media campaigns in the region that breach our values and principles, plant the seeds of strife among our children, and will destroy everything we have built and every pillar we have erected.”

The Emir acknowledged that the current conflict in Yemen poses a direct threat and hoped the ongoing consultations in Sweden would be a success.

Meanwhile, GCC Secretary General, Abdullatif Al-Zayani, said “37 years after the establishment of the GCC, the risks to the security and stability of the region and the economic challenges it faces, proves how important it is to adhere to the GCC’s blessed march and promotes united efforts.”

“Today we understand the enlightened vision of our leaders that established the council in 1981, where the main system implemented by our founders stated that the main goal of the GCC is to achieve coordination, integration and interdependence among member states in all fields, in order to consolidate unity and deepen and strengthen the existing Gulf ties.”

The GCC leader also stressed the importance of formulating a unified and effective foreign policy, based on protecting the council’s status and its interests and helping it avoid regional and international conflicts.

The member states also called for strengthening strategic, economic, cultural, political and security cooperation between the GCC member states and the international community, in line with maintaining regional security and stability.

The Riyadh Declaration also referred to the important role played by citizens of GCC countries, whether in the business sector, female entrepreneurs and the Gulf family, and NGOs, all of which enhance the development of the GCC region.

By Frank Kane*

A global trade war was apparently averted over dinner in Buenos Aires a couple of weeks ago when President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping called a cease-fire in the escalating commercial confrontation between the world’s two biggest economies.

Now that cease-fire has been threatened by the arrest in Canada — on a warrant from the US — of Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of Huawei, China’s flagship technology company.

The US is seeking her extradition for trial on allegations of breaching sanctions against Iran.

It is a serious development in the skirmishing between the US and China, because at stake is much more than the liberty of one executive. If the incident rekindles the trade war, it will seriously hit the global economy and financial markets, which had begun to recover on the strength of the dinner bargain between the two presidents.

Regional economies in the Arabian Gulf would not be immune. The region is locked into the world economy, mainly because of its role in energy markets, which are dependent on the strength of demand from the fast-growing economies of Asia.

A trade war would depress growth there, and make Asian manufacturers less likely to want Gulf oil and gas. Any beneficial effect of the recent OPEC deal to cut output would be at risk.

To be fair, there was some uncertainty about what had actually been agreed at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires anyway. The Americans said they were going to delay increasing tariffs on Chinese imports — largely steel and aluminum — due to be slapped on in January, in return for which China would drop tariffs on US cars and some foodstuffs.

The Chinese did not exactly confirm that version of dinner events, nor did they go along with other suggestions from the Americans that they would institute a radical restructuring of their industrial practices to prevent intellectual property theft and unfair state assistance.

All of this went a lot further than Trump’s central charge — about the imbalance of trade between the two countries. It is unlikely the Chinese would have agreed to such a far-ranging armistice, no matter how good the Argentine steaks.

Anyway, the arrest of Meng could knock all that off the table. Huawei is not just any old company, and Meng is not any old executive. The Shenzhen-based group is China’s equivalent of Apple, a source of national pride and a projection of Chinese technological skill on the global stage.

Meng is the daughter of Ren Zhengfei, the founder of Huawei back in 1987. Currently in a financial role, she is generally assumed to be his heir apparent.

That is why the Chinese reacted so strongly to the arrest, threatening Canada with “serious consequences” if Meng were not released. Her detention was “in disregard of the law, unreasonable, merciless and very evil,” the Chinese foreign ministry said.

It is probably grounds for some optimism on the trade front that so far China is only threatening Canada, rather than Washington, but it is hard to see how the situation will be resolved unless the US backs down in its extradition request.

The Canadians have treaty obligations with the US and it is unlikely they would have arrested her without a formal US request. If Washington withdraws that application, the whole thing might be smoothed over.

But the Americans are surely making a more important point. While Trump has concentrated on trade imbalances — with an annual deficit of $375 billion in China’s favor last year — others in his administration have a more ideological grievance.

They want to take on China’s growing economic power around the world. In this respect, you could see the Huawei case as an opening sighting shot in a much longer struggle between US and Chinese world views.

The affair has already further unnerved financial markets, with Wall Street and others seeing sharp falls last week.

Despite Trump’s tweeted view that “trade wars are easy to win,” no serious economist thinks that there could be any long-term beneficiary from a protracted commercial confrontation between the two super-economies.

The Arabian Gulf economies — caught in the middle with big investments in both countries — stand to lose twice over.

* Frank Kane is an award-winning business journalist based in Dubai. Twitter: @frankkanedubai