By Chris Calton*

Thomas Sowell used to ask his students to imagine a government bureaucracy that had two functions. One function was to provide medicine to sick children, and the other function was to construct statues of Benedict Arnold. He would then ask his students that if the bureaucracy suffered budget cuts, which function would the bureau stop funding?

The intuitive answer to those of us who are not bureaucrats is to cut the funding to Benedict Arnold statues, of course. One might even ask why we are funding statues in honor of a traitor to begin with? But, Sowell would tell his students, the bureaucracy would actually be more inclined to cut funding to the medicine to sick children.

Why?

Bureaucrats and politicians, like anybody else, are self-interested individuals, and their interests are to enjoy a bureaucracy with as large a tax-payer-funded budget as possible. When they are faced with budget cuts, it makes no sense to cut funding from programs that the vast majority of taxpayers wouldn’t care to fund in the first place. There would be no outcry. But by cutting funds in an area that creates real pain for certain people within the population — say, sick children or members of the military — the public will predictably erupt with outrage, demanding that the original budget be reinstated (or even increased!) so people don’t suffer.

With President Trump’s demands for tax-payer funds allocated to his border wall, his reaction was to threaten a government shutdown. This tactic seems to be an increasingly popular tactic for politicians who want support for ever-increasing budgets and higher taxes. The last so-called “shut down” only took place five years ago under Barack Obama, and it seems many people have already forgotten the political theater that accompanied it. “Shutting down” the government apparently meant paying government employees to set up traffic cones around monuments and abstaining from making Twitter updates, among other things.

However, while government continued to spend on things such as subsidies to encourage people to eat Idaho-produced caviar and, apparently until only recently, Y2K prevention research, the shutdowns did included the halting of military pay. Of course, as is the nature with military service, the government’s refusal to pay does not release any service member from their legally enforced obligation to complete their term. But just as Dr. Sowell predicted, the mere threat of government employees — military especially — going without paychecks inevitably brings public outrage and calls to pass whatever budget the president demands. No need to even discuss cutting out any of the billions of dollars identified as waste even by non-libertarian organizations .

The reality with government shutdowns is that nearly nothing actually gets shut down. Heaven forbid employees from the Internal Revenue Service go without pay, let alone the politicians themselves. The specter of a government shutdown, accompanied with media interviews from government employees worrying about paying for Christmas presents, is all that’s needed to bully the public into supporting even the most reviled programs.

In the most recent example, Trump has threatened a government shutdown to compel congress to approve funding for a border wall. A recent GoFundMe campaign has demonstrated both that there are people willing to donate their own money – without compulsory taxes – to the project, but also that nowhere nearly enough taxpayers are willing to fund a border wall to the dollar amount that Congress has approved. But with the threat of a so-called “government shutdown,” ever ardent opponents of Trump’s wall have demanded Congress do whatever it takes to prevent the horrors that demagogues predict will ensue.

For libertarians, it’s easy to celebrate the promise of a government shutdown. Unfortunately, even if the threat is carried out, the sad reality is that a government shutdown is not, and never has been, anything more than an engineered tactic to generate a public outcry to allow the government to tax and spend as much as and however it wants. And the tactic always seems to work.

*About the author: Chris Calton is a 2018 Mises Institute Research Fellow and an economic historian. He is writer and host of the Historical Controversies podcast.

Source: This article was published by the MISES Institute

“To Kill a Mockingbird” is a Broadway play based on the best-selling 1960 book by Harper Lee. In 1962, the book was faithfully adapted for the big screen, and it also went over big with the public. The play, however, takes liberties with Lee’s work, distorting her contribution. Indeed, parts of the play’s script are so unrecognizable that Lee’s estate sued the producers earlier this year over this issue.

It is not as though the play has evolved into a morally destitute version of the book—it has not—but it does contain a line, made up out of whole cloth, that insults Christians, and it appears at a seminal moment.

The alleged town drunk bellows, “When horror comes to supper, it comes dressed exactly like a Christian.”

This line nowhere appears in the book or the movie. It was put there by playwright Aaron Sorkin, a left-wing secularist who has a history of offending Catholics, as well as traditionalists of all stripes.

Some may recall Sorkin’s jabs at Catholicism in his NBC show, “The West Wing.” He also likes to associate Tea Party conservatives with the head-chopping Taliban. In 2001, he boasted how important it was to use foul language on TV, arguing that it was time to use the Lord’s name in vain.

Sorkin’s latest attack on Christians is not only gratuitous, it is a complete inversion of Lee’s intent. She meant her book to be a story about tolerance and the evils of prejudice, not inducements to hatred. And she sure didn’t hate Christians. Indeed, she credited Christianity for its role in combating bigotry. Her novel, she said in a 1966 letter to the New York Times, was “Christian in its ethic.”

Sorkin has now taken Lee’s tribute and turned it into an assault on Christian sensibilities.

What makes this ugly saga even worse is the fact that the play is being offered to New York City public school students at a discount. That’s right, in cooperation with the city’s Department of Education, tickets are being made available to middle and high school students for $10.

“When horror comes to supper, it comes dressed exactly like a …….”

Fill in the gap with the name of any protected class of people, and then ask yourself what would happen if that line were used in the play instead of Sorkin’s choice. New York City would not be promoting that play—it would be condemning it.

Christians are different—they deserve to be insulted. That’s exactly the way people like Sorkin think, and that’s exactly why Christians view the cultural elites in Hollywood and New York City with such utter disdain.

Higher collective consumption of sweetened fruit drinks, soda, and water was associated with a higher likelihood of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) in a community-based study of African-American adults in Mississippi. The findings, which appear in an upcoming issue of the Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology (CJASN), contribute to the growing body of evidence pointing to the negative health consequences of consuming sugar-sweetened beverages.

Certain beverages may affect kidney health, but study results have been inconsistent. To provide more clarity, Casey Rebholz PhD, MS, MNSP, MPH (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health) and her colleagues prospectively studied 3003 African-American men and women with normal kidney function who were enrolled in the Jackson Heart Study.

“There is a lack of comprehensive information on the health implications of the wide range of beverage options that are available in the food supply,” said Dr. Rebholz. “In particular, there is limited information on which types of beverages and patterns of beverages are associated with kidney disease risk in particular.”

For their study, the investigators assessed beverage intake through a food frequency questionnaire administered at the start of the study in 2000-04, and they followed participants until 2009-13.

Among the 3003 participants, 185 (6%) developed CKD over a median follow-up of 8 years. After adjustment for confounding factors, consuming a beverage pattern consisting of soda, sweetened fruit drinks, and water was associated with a higher risk of developing CKD. Participants in the top tertile for consumption of this beverage pattern were 61% more likely to develop CKD than those in the bottom tertile.

The researchers were surprised to see that water was a component of this beverage pattern that was linked with a higher risk of CKD. They noted that study participants may have reported their consumption of a wide variety of types of water, including flavored and sweetened water. Unfortunately, the investigators did not collect information about specific brands or types of bottled water in the Jackson Heart Study.

In an accompanying editorial, Holly Kramer, MD, MPH and David Shoham, PhD (Loyola University Chicago) noted that the findings hold strong public health implications. “While a few select U.S. cities have successfully reduced SSB [sugar sweetened beverage] consumption via taxation, all other municipalities have resisted public health efforts to lower SSB consumption,” they wrote. “This cultural resistance to reducing SSB consumption can be compared to the cultural resistance to smoking cessation during the 1960s after the Surgeon General report was released. During the 1960s, tobacco use was viewed as a social choice and not a medical or social public health problem.”

In an accompanying Patient Voice editorial, Duane Sunwold explained that he is a patient with CKD who changed his eating and drinking patterns to put his disease in remission. As a chef, he offers a number of recommendations to fellow patients trying to decrease their consumption of sugar-sweetened drinks.

Moscow, in its efforts to support the border accord between Ingushetia’s Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and Chechnya’s Ramzan Kadyrov, has had some success in discrediting the idea that a Muslim court has any right to take up a case that the Russian Constitutional Court has already decided.

A survey of Chechens finds that most of them accept Moscow’s argument (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/329598/), and another of some of the alims in Ingushetia finds the same thing (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/329630/); but Moscow’s victory, if that is what it is, appears likely to be Pyrrhic because Moscow has overreached in exploiting the regional super-MSD.

Islamicist Aleksey Grishin shows that the document the Coordinating Center for Muslims of the North Caucasus adopted last week condemning the use of a shariat in this case was clearly prepared not by Muslims but by Moscow political technologists (islamio.ru/news/policy/pchely_protiv_meda_kto_zastavil_muftiev_ktsmsk_vystupit_protiv_shariatskikh_sudov/).

Entitling his article “Bees Against Honey?” Grishin argues that no mufti would have drafted such a document – the language simply isn’t consistent with Muslim practice – or signed it – given that is not how the Muslim Spiritual Directorates (MSD) of the republics function within the Coordinating Center.

The muftis were clearly under government pressure to sign, he says; and while he doesn’t approve of this, he “will not condemn them. The world is too complicated and not everyone is capable of heroic action.  But personally,” Grishin says, he feels “closer to Giordano Bruno” than to those who go along with whatever the government wants at the cost of their faith.

Many others in the North Caucasus are likely to feel the same, and to the extent that they do, Moscow may get its wish on this shariat court case but only at the cost of completely undermining the authority of the muftis in the republics and the Coordinating Center on which it has chosen to rely in the past.

That could open the way for more radicalism in the region, exactly the reverse of what the powers that be either in the region or in Moscow want. At the very least, this naked display of state power will do nothing to win over Muslims in Ingushetia and elsewhere who feel that their interests have been ignored.

Meanwhile, over the last two days, there have been three other developments linked to the Ingush-Chechen border controversy:

• Magistrates have opened a case on the kidnaping of the Amnesty International staffer in Ingushetia, an action Yevkurov continues to say was “a provocation” against him (meduza.io/news/2018/12/26/sk-vozbudil-delo-o-pohischenii-sotrudnika-amnesty-international-v-ingushetii-evkurov-dopuskal-chto-eto-byla-provokatsiya).

• Authorities in St. Petersburg have dropped charges against the 17-year-old who put up a sign on the Akhmed Kadyrov bridge in the northern capital decalring that the structure “belongs to Ingushetia,” quite possibly in order not to attract additional attention to the dispute in the North Caucasus (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/329649/).

• And Yevkurov saw his rating among governors fall further than anyone else over the last few months, by 68 percent since the start of the border controversy. As a result, RBC reports, he is the most unpopular governor in the Russian Federation (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/329641/).

Abandoned Christmas trees could be saved from landfill and turned into paint and food sweeteners according to new research by the University of Sheffield.

Christmas trees have hundreds of thousands of pine needles which take a long time to decompose compared to other tree leaves. When they rot, they emit huge quantities of greenhouse gases which then contribute to the carbon footprint of the UK.

Cynthia Kartey, a PhD student from the University of Sheffield’s Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, has found that useful products can be made from the chemicals extracted from pine needles when processed.

The major component (up to 85 per cent) of pine needles is a complex polymer known as lignocellulose. The complexity of this polymer makes using pine needles as a product for biomass energy unattractive and useless to most industrial processes.

Cynthia said: “My research has been focused on the breakdown of this complex structure into simple, high-valued industrial chemical feedstocks such as sugars and phenolics, which are used in products like household cleaners and mouthwash.

“Biorefineries would be able to use a relatively simple but unexplored process to break down the pine needles.”

With the aid of heat and solvents such as glycerol, which is cheap and environmentally friendly, the chemical structure of pine needles is broken down into a liquid product (bio-oil) and a solid by-product (bio-char).

The bio-oil typically contains glucose, acetic acid and phenol. These chemicals are used in many industries – glucose in the production of sweeteners for food, acetic acid for making paint, adhesives and even vinegar.

The process is sustainable and creates zero waste as the solid by-product can be useful too in other industrial chemical processes. Fresh trees and older, abandoned Christmas trees can both be used.

Cynthia continued: “In the future, the tree that decorated your house over the festive period could be turned into paint to decorate your house once again.”

The UK uses as many as 8 million natural Christmas trees during the festive period every year and sadly, about 7 million trees end up in landfill.

If pine needles were collected after Christmas and processed in this way, the chemicals could be used to replace less sustainable chemicals currently used in industry.

This could lead to a decrease in the UK’s carbon footprint by reducing the UK’s dependence on imported artificial plastic-based Christmas trees and a reduction in the amount of biomass waste going to landfill.

Dr James McGregor, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering said: “The use of biomass – materials derived from plants – to produce fuels and chemicals currently manufactured from fossil resources will play a key role in the future global economy.”

“If we can utilise materials that would otherwise go to waste in such processes, thereby recycling them, then there are further benefits.”

“In our research group we are currently investigating the production of valuable products from a variety of organic wastes, including forestry sources, spent grain from the brewing industry and food waste; alongside investigating processes for the conversion on carbon dioxide into useful hydrocarbon compounds”

Scientists at Tokyo Institute of Technology proposed new quasi-1D materials for potential spintronic applications, an upcoming technology that exploits the spin of electrons. They performed simulations to demonstrate the spin properties of these materials and explained the mechanisms behind their behavior.

Conventional electronics is based on the movement of electrons and mainly concerns their electric charge; unfortunately, we are close to reaching the physical limits for improving electronic devices. However, electrons bear another intrinsic quantum-physical property called “spin”, which can be interpreted as a type of angular momentum and can be either “up” or “down”. While conventional electronic devices do not deploy the spin of the electrons that they employ, spintronics is a field of study in which the spin of the conducting electrons is crucial. Serious improvements in performance and new applications can be attained through “spin currents”.

As promising as spintronics sound, researchers are still trying to find convenient ways of generating spin currents with material structures that possess electrons with desirable spin properties. The Rashba-Bychkov effect (or simply Rashba effect), which involves a splitting of spin-up and spin-down electrons due to breakings in symmetry, could potentially be exploited for this purpose. A pair of researchers from Tokyo Institute of Technology, including Associate Professor Yoshihiro Gohda, have proposed a new mechanism to generate a spin current without energy loss from a series of simulations for new quasi-1D materials based on bismuth-adsorbed indium that exhibit a giant Rashba effect. “Our mechanism is suitable for spintronic applications, having an advantage that it does not require an external magnetic field to generate nondissipative spin current,” explains Gohda. This advantage would simplify potential spintronic devices and would allow for further miniaturization.

The researchers conducted simulations based on these materials to demonstrate that the Rashba effect in them can be large and only requires applying a certain voltage to generate spin currents. By comparing the Rashba properties of multiple variations of these materials, they provided explanations for the observed differences in the materials’ spin properties and a guide for further materials exploration.

This type of research is very important as radically new technologies are required if we intend to further improve electronic devices and go beyond their current physical limits. “Our study should be important for energy-efficient spintronic applications and stimulating further exploration of different 1D Rashba systems,” concludes Gohda. From faster memories to quantum computers, the benefits of better understanding and exploiting Rashba systems will certainly have enormous implications.

Singapore households from different socioeconomic groups vary significantly in their use of water and electricity for heat relief, according to a recent study conducted by Associate Professor Alberto Salvo from the Department of Economics at the National University of Singapore (NUS) Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences.

Specifically, the study suggests that water provides heat relief for lower-income households while demand for electricity increases among higher-income households, likely through the use of air-conditioning, when temperatures rise.

“The rise in global temperatures affects household demand for water and energy, which are vital yet scarce resources. Examining the demand for such resources among Singapore households across the socioeconomic distribution can provide insights on how other urban populations in tropical Asian cities will respond as incomes rise and the climate warms. This will enable policymakers to introduce cooling strategies that better balance the use of natural resources with local availability, such as water,” said Assoc Prof Salvo.

The results of the study have been published in the scientific journal Nature Communications.

Heat relief strategies vary across households with different income levels

The study looked at the water and electricity bills of about 130,000 households – a 1-in-10 random sample of all households in Singapore – from 2012 to 2015. The same household’s consumption of water and electricity was examined over time. The analysis identified unseasonably warm or cool months and compared each household’s use of resources in these abnormal months to consumption at the same point in surrounding years. This was repeated over 130,000 households.

The findings showed that when ambient temperatures rise, water demand increases among lower-income Singapore households. For instance, with a 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature, the average household living in a 2-room apartment (about 50m2) raises water use by nine litres per day, amounting to an additional daily shower for every 2.3 households. At the time of the study, less than 20 per cent of 2-room apartments had an air-conditioner.

In sharp contrast, heat induces larger shifts in electricity demand among higher-income households, such as those staying in 5 or 6-room apartments (110m2 or more) where air-conditioners are prevalent – with no significant change in water consumption. The electricity demand increase for these households averages two kilowatt hours per day per additional 1 degree Celsius, which is equivalent to operating an air-conditioning unit for two more hours each day. The electricity demand response to heat by these households is double that typically estimated for a United States population in the summer.

To complement the observational evidence from the study, a 300-person survey on heat relief behaviours by Singapore households was also conducted. 39 per cent of respondents stated that on a very hot day, they would shower more often and longer. This is comparable to 36 per cent who indicated that they would turn on the air-conditioner. The survey also found that more showers, washing of one’s face, and washing of one’s clothes are prevalent water-based cooling behaviours adopted by Singapore households.

Improve forecast of water and electricity usage in tropical Asia

In Southeast Asia, climate models project annual temperature to increase by 1 to 4 degree Celsius and winter rainfall to decrease by 20 to 30 per cent by 2070. Currently, only 8 per cent of the three billion people living in the tropics currently have access to air-conditioning, compared to over 90 per cent in the United States and Japan.

Assoc Prof Salvo said, “As we face shifting temperature extremes and rainfall variability, the study can contribute towards improving demand forecasting for water and electricity in water-stressed cities in tropical Asia, where incomes are rising. This can facilitate better design and allocation of water and electricity grids. Air-conditioners powered by electricity generated from burning fossil fuels come at an environmental cost, but one added benefit is that they may reduce a household’s water demand when seeking relief from heat.”

Moving forward, Assoc Prof Salvo will conduct further studies to explore whether the findings for Singapore can be extended to urban populations in other cities in tropical Asia, such as Mumbai and Jakarta, with different climates or levels of economic development.

Former first lady Michelle Obama is the world’s most admired woman in the eyes of Americans, the first woman other than Hillary Clinton to be designated as such in 17 years, according to a new Gallup poll.

Obama won by a wide margin in this year’s poll after finishing second to the former secretary of state and former first lady in three previous surveys.

Billionaire media mogul Oprah Winfrey came in second, followed by Clinton, and current first lady Melania Trump.

Britain’s Queen Elizabeth ranked fifth, followed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Former President Barack Obama was first on the list of most admired men for the 11th straight year, topping his successor, President Donald Trump, who came in second for the fourth consecutive year.

Former President George W. Bush placed third and Pope Francis was fourth in the rankings.

The survey, conducted earlier this month, asked American respondents to name the woman and man living anywhere in the world whom they admired most.

US President Donald Trump’s unscheduled trip to Iraq met with harsh criticism from the Arab country’s political figures and parties, with some denouncing the move as a violation of Iraq’s sovereignty.

For the first time since he became US president almost two years ago, Trump paid a surprise visit to American troops in Iraq on Wednesday. He landed at an airbase west of the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, where he thanked the soldiers for their service.

But Trump’s planned meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi was canceled over dispute about the location of the meeting.

Meanwhile, Iraqi political parties and figures have condemned Trump’s visit as a violation of their country’s sovereignty.

Sabah al-Saadi, the leader of the Islah parliamentary bloc, called for an emergency session of the parliament “to discuss this blatant violation of Iraq’s sovereignty and to stop these aggressive actions by Trump who should know his limits. The US occupation of Iraq is over”.

The bloc underlined that the US withdrawal from Syria is no justification for using Iraq as a base for American troops.

The Bina bloc, Islah’s rival in parliament, also objected to the US president’s trip to Iraq.

“Trump’s visit is a flagrant and clear violation of diplomatic norms and shows his disdain and hostility in his dealings with the Iraqi government,” a statement from Bina said.

In separate comments, Hashim al-Mousavi, the spokesperson for Iraq’s al-Nujaba Movement, a major Shiite resistance group, underlined that “stupid Trump” must be aware that there is no place for US military bases in Iraq. He also said the time has come for the Iraqi government to expel the American forces, whose presence damages Iraq’s sovereignty, according to Alsumaria news.

Jafar al-Hosseini, a spokesman for Iraq’s Hezbollah Battalions also condemned Trump’s visit, stressing that the Islamic resistance forces will force the US to pull its troops out of Iraq.

Abdul Mahdi’s office said in a statement that US authorities had informed Iraq’s leadership of the presidential visit in advance. The statement said the Iraqi prime minister and the US president held a telephone conversation due to a “disagreement over how to conduct the meeting”.

Iraqi legislators told Reuters news agency that the two leaders had disagreed over where their planned meeting should take place: Trump had asked to meet at the Ain al-Asad military base, an offer Mahdi declined.

Trump’s visit to Iraq came a week after his decision to withdraw all US troops from neighboring Syria despite strong objections from domestic and foreign allies. Pentagon chief Jim Mattis and the US envoy to the coalition purportedly fighting the Daesh (ISIL) terrorist group quit shortly after Trump’s announcement.

In a speech at the Ain al-Asad Airbase, Trump defended his decision to pull US soldiers out of Syria while insisting he has no similar plans for Iraq.

King Salman appointed a new foreign minister on Thursday in a wide-ranging reshuffle of Saudi Arabia’s Cabinet. The changes were widely expected within the Saudi political and media circles, given that the previous cabinet has surpassed its four year tenure.

Ibrahim Al-Assaf was named Minister of Foreign Affairs, a position formally held by Adel Al-Jubeir, who was appointed as Minister of State for Foreign Affairs.

Assaf previously served as finance minister for two decades until 2016. In July 2017, he led the Saudi delegation to the G20 meeting in Hamburg. Assaf was detained briefly in 2017 as part of an anti corruption crackdown but was cleared of any wrongdoing.

The royal decree, announced live on television by the king, revealed a string of new appointments.

Abdullah bin Bandar bin Abdul Aziz was named Minister of National Guard, and Mohammed bin Saleh Al-Ghofeily was relieved as National Guard advisor

Khaled Al-Harbi was appointed head of the Public Security Directorate in place of Saud bin Abdul Aziz Hilal.

Musaed Al Aiban was appointed as Saudi Arabia’s National Security adviser.

Prince Abdul Aziz bin Turki Al-Faisal was appointed as chairman of the General Sports Authority in place of Turki Al Asheikh, who was appointed as the chairman of the General Entertainment Authority. 

Prince Sultan bin Salman was relieved as president of Saudi Commission for Tourism and National Heritage (SCTH), and was replaced by Ahmad Al-Khateeb.

A new entity called the General Commission for Exhibitions and Conferences is to be set up, and its CEO will be appointed by royal decree.

The Minister of Commerce and Investment Dr. Majed Al-Qassabi will also be responsible for the General Commission for Exhibitions and Conferences

Prince Mohammed bin Nawaf bin Abdulaziz, the Kingdom’s ambassador in London, was relieved of his post.

Turki Al-Shabana was appointed as Minister of Media, and Hamad Al-Sheikh was appointed as Minister of Education.

Ahmed bin Mohammad Al-Issa, who was relieved as Minister of Education, was appointed as a Royal Court advisor and head of the Saudi Public Education Evaluation Commission.

Awad bin Saleh Al Awad, who was relieved as Minister of Media, has been appointed as a Royal Court advisor. 

Iman Al-Mutairi was appointed as assistant to the Minister of Commerce. 

Turki bin Talal replaced Faisal bin Khaled as the governor of the Asir region. 

Prince Badr bin Sultan was relieved of his post and replaced by Prince Faisal bin Nawaf as the governor of Al-Jouf region.

Mansour bin Mohammad bin Saad Al Saud was appointed as Hafr Al-Batin’s governor.  

Badr bin Sultan bin Abdulaziz Al Saud was appointed as Deputy Governor of the Makkah Region. 

Prince Turki bin Saud bin Mohammed was appointed as a Royal Court Advisor.

By Andrew Hammond*

December is proving a tumultuous month for US President Donald Trump, not least with the latest government shutdown adding to political uncertainty in Washington. With attention turning to 2019, focus is growing on the emerging Democratic presidential nomination battle, which could see the largest field of candidates for the party in a generation.

In the near term, the single biggest decision that will shape the race could come as soon as January, with former Vice President Joe Biden announcing whether he will run for a third White House bid after running in 1988 and 2008. He has promised a decision in the first few weeks of the year, after visiting more than 30 states in 2018.

While Biden could yet surprise many in Washington by not putting his hat in the ring, he is the early favorite. This despite him being 76 years old, in what could ultimately become the first ever clash of septuagenarian Democratic and Republican candidates in US history if Trump, 72, seeks re-election too.

Although the first nomination contest in Iowa on Feb. 3, 2020, remains over a year away, a slew of new polls indicate Biden’s frontrunner status. For instance, one taken from Dec. 10-13 for the Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom put Biden at 32 percent among Iowa voters. A survey for Focus on Rural America from Dec. 10-11 put him at 30 percent. To put this in context, no other candidate reached even 20 percent in either poll.  

Yet he would potentially face a significant field, including the man some are claiming to be the “new Obama,” Beto O’Rourke, the congressman who in November’s Senate election nearly became the first Democrat to win a state race in Texas since 1994.

O’Rourke came in third place in the Des Moines Register / CNN / Mediacom poll with 11 percent, trailing behind not just Biden but also Sen. Bernie Sanders, who scored 19 percent. In the Focus on Rural America survey, O’Rourke secured third place with 11 percent, with Sanders on 13 percent.  

Among the potential other contenders for the Democratic crown are US senators Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Kirsten Gillibrand, Cory Booker, Tim Kaine and Amy Kobuchar.  Outside the Senate, potential runners include New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, actress and TV celebrity Oprah Winfrey, businessman Michael Bloomberg and former Secretary of State John Kerry. While it is widely presumed that Hillary Clinton, the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee, will not run again, she has not categorically confirmed this.

While the Democratic race is fluid, Biden (who would in 2020 be the oldest presidential nominee in US history) may yet consolidate his early position to become his party’s standard bearer. While he is not a prohibitive favorite yet to secure the nomination in the way Clinton was at this stage in 2016, by numerous benchmarks he has key advantages against other Democrats, if his good health remains.

The past few decades of US political history indicate that the victor in nomination contests for both major parties frequently leads national polls of party identifiers on the eve of the first presidential nomination ballot in Iowa, and also raises more campaign finance than any other candidate in the 12 months prior to election year.

From 1980 to 2016, for instance, the eventual nominee in around half the Democratic and Republican nomination races contested (that is, in which there was more than one candidate) was the early frontrunner by both of these measures. Moreover, in at least four partial exceptions to this pattern, the eventual presidential nominee led the rest of the field on one of the two measures.

On both the fundraising and national poll measures, Biden could become the clear favorite for the Democrats in 2020, so much so that some other potentially first-class candidates may decide not to even enter the race.
Presuming Trump seeks re-election and wins the 2020 Republican nomination, which would be probable but by no means certain, he could face a very tough race against Biden or whoever the eventual Democratic nominee is. One of the key factors that will influence the latter party’s prospects of defeating the Republicans will be whether, and how quickly, it can unite around its own nominee given the potentially large number of contenders.

While the circumstances of 2020 will be different from 2016, when Clinton and Sanders were engaged in a protracted fight, it is nonetheless the case that another divisive Democratic nomination contest would probably only benefit Trump if he is the Republican nominee again. Indeed, should Trump emerge easily as the Republican nominee in 2020, this may prove a tipping point in another tight general election contest.

• Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics

(RFE/RL) — The Afghan National Army says a leading spokesman for the affiliate of the extremist group Islamic State (IS) in Afghanistan has been killed in a drone strike.

An army statement on December 27 said Sultan Aziz Azam was killed the day before in an “IS hideout” in the Pachiragam district of the eastern province of Nangarhar.

The statement said that “acting upon intelligence reports, unnamed planes targeted” Azam, “the mouthpiece of the hard-liner group for Afghanistan.”

Nasrat Rahimi, deputy spokesman for the Interior Ministry, said Azam was also in charge of recruiting militants for high-profile attacks in urban areas.

There was no immediate statement from IS or from U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

Nangarhar is the stronghold of IS militants, who are active on Afghanistan’s porous eastern border with Pakistan.

The U.S. military estimates that there are about 2,000 IS militants in Afghanistan.

The hard-line Sunni group has targeted minority Shi’ite civilians and government security forces in deadly attacks since it emerged around 2015.

A Russian strategic drone propelled by a miniaturized nuclear reactor is undergoing underwater trials, according to reports. The weapon, called Poseidon, is slated to become a new class of the country’s nuclear deterrence.

Poseidon, which was previously dubbed Status-6, was officially announced in March along with other upcoming weapon systems, meant to counter the development of anti-ballistic missile technologies by the US. It’s a long-range submersible drone capable of traveling at high speed deep underwater thanks to a miniaturized nuclear reactor.

According to a defense source cited on Wednesday by TASS, Poseidon is currently undergoing underwater trials as part of its development.

“The nuclear propulsion system of the Poseidon drone is currently being tested in a sea area protected from surveillance by the likely opponent,” the source said, using an old Soviet military term for the US and its NATO allies.

According to the source, the torpedo is carried by a nuclear-propelled submarine of the Russian Navy and that the developer hopes to complete the project before 2027.

The claimed reactor miniaturization technology that allows the creation of Poseidon is behind another weapon system, the development of which was announced this year – the intercontinental-range cruise missile Burevestnik.

Other weapons include a traditional-design Sarmat ICBM, a hypersonic air-launched ballistic missile, apparently meant to destroy aircraft carrier groups and similarly valuable targets, and a laser system of undisclosed purpose. The latter, some analysts believe, could be an anti-satellite weapon capable of disabling optical sensors in orbit.

The United Arab Emirates reopened its embassy in the Syrian capital on Thursday, seven years after the mission was closed because of the country’s bloody war.

An official at the Syrian information ministry invited journalists “to cover the reopening of the Emirati embassy in Damascus today”.

Citing a source in the Syrian foreign ministry, Russian state media also said the UAE will officially open its mission in the country on Thursday afternoon.

Rumours of the Emirati embassy reopening have circulated in recent days as renovation work was spotted getting underway at the building.

The move is seen as another step in efforts to bring the regime of President Bashar al-Assad back into the Arab fold after years of diplomatic isolation.

Last month, reports emerged that Emirati officials had been meeting with the Syrian regime to restore its diplomatic mission.

With the exception of Oman, Gulf states closed their missions in Syria after the outbreak of the conflict in 2011, when President Bashar al-Assad’s forces gunned down peaceful protesters.

Some of the Gulf states have supported factions of the Syrian opposition during the seven-year conflict, providing arms to various rebel groups in an attempt to counter Iranian support for the Syrian regime.

Recent developments have indicated that the Gulf states are now reaching out to reconcile with the Assad regime.

Assad recently told a Kuwaiti newspaper that Syria has reached a “major understanding” with Arab states after years of hostility.

Earlier this month, Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir became the first Arab leader to visit Syria since the war began.

Original source

The co-founder of LinkedIn, Reid Hoffman, has apologized to Republican Roy Moore for funding an organisation that faked a “Russian bot” involvement to mar his election campaign in Alabama.

American Engagement Technologies (AET), which Hoffman gave $750,000 to, put $100,000 of the entrepreneur’s money towards New Knowledge, a cybersecurity firm which fabricated some 1,000 Russian language Twitter accounts to follow Moore.

The company used the tactic to link the controversial Republican to so-called Russian influence campaigns and then fed it to the mainstream media. They also created misleading Facebook pages urging Republicans to support a “write-in” candidate instead of supporting Moore. The ploy was revealed by New York Times earlier this month.

“I find the tactics that have been recently reported highly disturbing,” Hoffman told the Washington Post. “For that reason, I am embarrassed by my failure to track AET — the organization I did support — more diligently as it made its own decisions to perhaps fund projects that I would reject.”

AET is ran by former Barack Obama administration official, Mikey Dickerson, who previously helped the US government with its adoption of new technology.

Last week, Facebook suspended five accounts linked to the operation for “engaging in coordinated inauthentic behavior.” One of the accounts belonged to the CEO of New Knowledge, Jonathon Morgan, who claims he was acting alone as a researcher and not on behalf of the company.

Morgan is also one of the developers of the Hamilton 68 dashboard, a tool that purports to look into ongoing Russian social media operations by monitoring Twitter accounts, the list of which is too secret to be disclosed.

Hamilton 68 has been used by US publication Mother Jones to bolster a December 2017 article titled: “Russian Propagandists Are Pushing for Roy Moore to Win.”

Senator Doug Jones, the Democrat who narrowly defeated Moore last May, has called for a federal investigation. A move supported by the chastened Hoffman. “What is obvious now is that we have focused so much on Russia that we haven’t focused on the fact that people in this country could take the same playbook and do the same damn thing,” stated Jones.

By Madalin Necsutu

Almost all parties with realistic chances of winning seats in Moldova’s parliament have registered for the February elections – with pro-EU opposition parties fielding a cast of newcomers and the older parties relying on more established names.

All the main political parties in Moldova on Wednesday or Thursday submitted their lists of candidates to the Central Electoral Commission for the parliamentary elections due on February 24.

Under the new and controversial “mixed” electoral system, half the winning candidates for the 101 seats will come from party lists and half will be elected in constituencies.

The ruling Democratic Party, PD, has put the the top three figures in the party at the top of its list, meaning party leader Vlad Plahotniuc, current Prime Minister Pavel Filip and the parliament speaker, Andrian Candu.

There are also some surprises on the PD list. In 11th place is Otilia Dragutanu, whose husband Dorin was governor of the National Bank when one billion US dollars was stolen from the banking system.

The former interim mayor of Chisinau in 2017 and 2018, Silvia Radu, is also on the PD list, despite her always having said that she was an “independent” candidate with no ties to the party.

On the other hand, the pro-European opposition political ACUM [“NOW”] bloc has put the leader of Action and Solidarity Party, Maia Sandu, and the leader of the Dignity and Truth Platform, Andrei Nastase, at the top of its list.

With few exceptions, this list contains few names that ever held a deputy’s mandate or any other high positions in the state.

Also on the list are the vice-presidents of both parties, Igor Grosu and Alexandru Slusari, and two personalities from civil society, Igor Munteanu, former head of the Chisinau-based think tank IDIS Viitorul, and the historian Octavian Ticu.

Their list was formatted with gender equality criteria in mind, having a 40 to 60 per cent ratio of men to women.

The list of the pro-Russian Socialist Party, PSRM, which opinion surveys say is leading with the support of 30 to 35 per cent of the voters, is headed mainly by deputies from the present parliament.

Some names in the top 30, like Corneliu Furculita, Vasile Bolea and Petru Burduja, were involved in controversial financial schemes involving Russian money coming from off-shore havens in the Bahamas, used to finance Igor Dodon’s successful presidential campaign in 2016.

Others, like Vlad Batrancea, are known for their hostility to LBGT rights and opposition to Romania.

Another is Victor Gaiciuc, the former ambassador to NATO and former defence minister, known also for his close connections to Moscow. He is also a relative of President Dodon’s.

The Communist Party, led by ex-president Vladimir Voronin, told the media that his party will solve its “bureaucratic issues” and register for the election shortly, with him being first on the list.

All the candidates must pass a 6-per-cent threshold to enter parliament.

The EU and local experts have voiced concerns about the present electoral system, which they say will advantage the most powerful, richest and most influential parties, like the PSRM and the PD. Both parties voted together to change the old proportional system in July 2017.

The cancellation of the result of the mayoral race for Chisinau on June 2018 by a court angered the EU, triggering the suspension of macro-financial aid worth 100 million euros. Some fear the scenario will be repeated after the parliamentary elections.

Many candidates of both the PSRM and the PD have a political past in the Communist Party, prompting Voronin to label them “traitors” or “fugitives” on various occasions.

By Rina Chadijah

Indonesian authorities have arrested almost 400 suspected militants in 2018, the nation’s police chief said Thursday, as he predicted that terrorism would pose the biggest threat to public security next year.

In May, Indonesia suffered suicide bombings that targeted three churches and a police headquarters in Surabaya, the nation’s second largest city, killing 24 people, including children who allegedly joined their parents on a terror spree that took their own lives.

Those back-to-back attacks spurred the Indonesian Parliament to fast-track an anti-terror law that allows police to detain suspects for 21 days without charge.

“Now we are stronger to do counter strike and preventive strike, rather than waiting for evidence of a committed crime,” Gen. Tito Karnavian, chief of the national police, told a news conference.

Tito was referring to the revised Anti-Terrorism Law that also allows authorities to hold suspects for another 200 days after filing charges against them, giving police sufficient time to gather evidence before handing the case to prosecutors.

Out of the 396 suspects arrested this year on suspicion of terror links, 141 people had been charged in court, Tito said. By comparison, he said, police arrested 176 terror suspects last year.

Tito attributed the significant statistical jump to what he described as intensive counter-terrorism operations prior to hosting of international multi-sport events, such as the Asian Games on Aug. 18 to Sept. 2 in the capital Jakarta and Palembang city.

“Honestly, the operations to arrest terror suspects after the Surabaya attacks were possible after the law was issued,” Tito said. “So, while the Surabaya case is a tragedy, at the same time it is a lesson, too.”

The attacks in Surabaya became the first suicide bombings involving family members in the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation of more than 260 million people.

Tito told reporters in September that within four months after the bombings, police had arrested at least 352 members of the local branch of the Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD), a network of Indonesian militants with Islamic State (IS) links.

During the past 12 months, security forces also shot dead 25 men in separate gunfights that took place when the suspects refused to be arrested, according to a police report. It said eight officers were killed and 23 were injured in those anti-terror operations.

The Surabaya attacks occurred a few days after terrorist inmates rioted over a food complaint at the Mobile Brigade (Brimob) detention facility, a maximum-security prison in West Java’s Depok district, leaving five police officers and an inmate dead.

IS has inspired cells of radical groups in Indonesia, Tito said. The extremist group once held vast territories that straddled parts of Iraq and Syria and ran a so-called caliphate in the Syrian city of Raqqa until it was routed by U.S.-backed forces last year.

“While they are not completely gone, they will try to mobilize their network. Like in Europe, in America, including in Southeast Asia,” Tito said, referring to the IS.

More than 600 Indonesians, including dozens of women and children, traveled to Syria to join IS, according Indonesian counter-terrorism officials. Since 2015, about 430 Indonesians have been deported from Turkey after trying to cross into Syria to join IS, Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi told reporters in June.

The possible return of more deportees and the Surabaya bombings have revived fears about IS’s attempts to spread its influence in Indonesia.

But Tito expressed confidence that with the doubling in size of the country’s counter-terrorism task force – from 600 to about 1,300 personnel – and also the establishment of a Terrorism Task Force in each police region, authorities can improve efforts to eradicate terrorism.

“Even though there are still potential threats … we will be able to overcome them,” he said.

The “Enterprise Sri Lanka – BOC ThurunuDiriya” loan scheme has disbursed loans worth over Rs.180 million (Rs.183,800,500) among 427 young entrepreneurs island-wide up to date.

This was revealed by the weekly progress report of implementing the ThurunuDiriya loan scheme which was released by the Bank of Ceylon on Wednesday.This report also reveals that the provincial-wise disbursement of “ThurunuDiriya” loans continue to be led by Western and Sabaragamuwa Provinces disbursing 80 loans each, while Rathnapura district leads the district-wise loans disbursements by disbursing 63 loans.

The “ThurunuDiriya” is a special loan scheme designed for the potential young entrepreneurs engaging in various businesses such as beauty culture, garments, computer and mobile phone services etc., from all corners of the country. This has given them the opportunity to receive loans at a low interest rate, which they use to overcome their financial problems and develop their businesses.

The “ThurunuDiriya” loan scheme was implemented by the Bank of Ceylon with the assistance of the Policy Development Office (PDO) of the Prime Minister’s Office, the Central Programme Management Unit (CPMU) and the Small Enterprises Development Division (SEDD, to provide financial assistance to potential young entrepreneurs of Sri Lanka.

This loan scheme provides loans without a guarantor and collateral or with lenient guarantor conditions, for entrepreneurs below 40 years of age, who possess a degree or a recognized vocational certificate and who has been in the business for minimum of three years.

Bank of Ceylon branches or the Divisional secretariats island-wide ready to provide information about this loan scheme to youth keen in getting involved in business of their choice.

Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez traveled to the Republic of Mali on Thursday morning to visit the Spanish troops stationed there.

Sánchez was scheduled to hold a meeting with the Prime Minister of the Republic, Soumeylou Boubeye Maiga, in Bamako, and then travel to Koulikoro, where the KTC Detachment is based as part of the European Union Training Mission.

Sánchez tool the opportunity of his trip to greet the members of the Marfil Detachment of the Air Force, based in Dakar (Senegal), when he arrives at Bamako Airport, who flew there to meet up with the Prime Minister.

The aim of the trip is to acknowledge and express Sánchez’ thanks for the efforts of the Spanish servicemen deployed overseas, Moncloa said.

By Michael Hart

When Aung San Suu Kyi was propelled to high office via a landslide election victory in November 2015, she vowed to make ending Myanmar’s decades-old internal strife a top priority of her government. Yet three years on, the initial outpouring of hope and optimism around the world after the ascent to power of Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) has been replaced with rising condemnation of the brutal Rohingya crackdown and alleged army abuses in the northern states of Kachin and Shan.

While the quasi-civilian administration led by Suu Kyi has failed to condemn the actions of Myanmar’s still-dominant armed forces, known as the Tatmadaw, the former global human rights icon has pushed forward with a government peace initiative designed to end a myriad of long-running ethnic conflicts which have blighted the country’s remote borderlands for seventy years. And though talks first began under the former military regime, Suu Kyi attended the latest rounds of dialogue held in July and October 2018.

Yet despite repeated sets of negotiations, the peace process has stalled amid escalating violence on the ground. Suu Kyi’s strategy is centred on persuading more rebel groups to join the existing Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), originally signed by eight groups the month before her election in 2015. A further two signed in February, yet the country’s most powerful militias are refusing to join the accord while talks remain deadlocked over key security matters and the central issue of devolving political powers.

Can Aung San Suu Kyi break the impasse in Myanmar’s fractured peace process? Or will the continued dominance of the military and mistrust of the army among ethnic leaders stand in the way of peace?

Myanmar’s decades-old internal ethnic conflicts

Myanmar’s raging civil conflicts date back to before the country’s independence from Britain in 1948.  Prior to independence, in February 1947 ethnic leaders from Chin, Kachin and Shan states signed the Panglong Agreement with Myanmar’s leader at the time, General Aung San – Suu Kyi’s father. The deal promised autonomy and self-determination for ethnic groups after the creation of Burma. Aung San was assassinated by political opponents later that year and his commitment was not honored by the nation’s post-independence rulers, sparking the formation of ethnic armies set on securing autonomy.

Insurgencies have persisted for much of the past seven decades in the states of Rakhine, Chin, Kachin, Shan, Kayin and Mon. Various armed insurgent groups have fought government troops, driven by core grievances centered on the political control of territory, rights for ethnic minorities and access to natural resource revenues. Most fighting has occurred in isolated and inaccessible border areas far from the center of state power in Naypyidaw. The uprisings have proven resistant to resolution, having persisted through the 26-year dictatorship of Ne Win and successive military regimes which followed. Previous ceasefires have been negotiated with individual armed groups, yet all have been broken and peace has rarely held for long. The most enduring was in Kachin state, where a 1994 ceasefire quelled fighting with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) for 17 years until hostilities resumed six years ago.

Aung San Suu Kyi’s attempt to reboot the peace process

The government’s approach to conflict resolution widened in 2011 when reformist military ruler Thein Sein initiated a national-level peace dialogue for the first time under army rule. Negotiations led to a Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) signed in October 2015, just a month before Suu Kyi’s historic election win. Yet only eight of 15 groups involved in discussions put pen to paper. Some of Myanmar’s largest and most influential insurgent groups – including the 10,000-strong KIA and the 25,000-strong United Wa State Army (UWSA) – refused to sign the deal due to the Tatmadaw’s exclusion of smaller allied rebel organizations, such as the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), from the peace process.

A month later, Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD swept to power having secured a high proportion of the ethnic minority vote. Despite being barred from the presidency by a constitutional clause, Suu Kyi, with the title of State Counsellor and as the nation’s de-facto ruler, vowed to pursue a lasting peace settlement.

Under the weight of high expectations, Suu Kyi has since sought to foster continual dialogue, reviving the spirit of her father’s peace drive of the 1940s via the holding a series of 21^st Century Panglong Peace Conferences. Yet the military – which retains decision-making control over internal security matters and for which one-third of parliamentary seats are reserved – has maintained its central role in the talks, which are designed to build upon the 2015 NCA deal. Despite two more insurgent groups signing up in February, progress has been slower than hoped and delays have occurred. Suu Kyi planned to hold Panglong conferences every six months, yet to-date only three have taken place since she took power. Loose agreements have been reached on principles covering politics, economics, the environment, and social issues, but the agenda has been vague and core drivers of the conflict have yet to be discussed.

A stalling peace process amid escalating violence on the ground

The three rounds of talks hosted by Suu Kyi so far, in August 2016, May 2017 and July 2018, have been held against a backdrop of rising violence on the ground and unchecked abuses by the Tatmadaw. In Rakhine state, the army has responded to attacks on border posts by Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) militants by launching a wide-ranging crackdown on Rohingya villages. The UN and a multitude of human rights organizations have accused troops of burning villages, raping women and deliberately killing civilians. Some have even gone so far as to label the military’s campaign as ‘genocide’ or ‘ethnic cleansing’, while Suu Kyi has faced strong criticism from Western leaders for her failure to speak out. Suu Kyi insists the army have only targeted ‘terrorists’ in clearing operations. Over 700,000 Rohingya have fled across the border to seek refuge in neighboring Bangladesh since violence erupted in 2017.

Meanwhile in 2018, fighting has intensified in the northeastern states of Kachin and Shan, along the border with China. In Kachin, clashes between the government and ethnic rebels have centered on the townships of Hpakant, Injangyang, Sumprabum, Tanaing and Waingmaw, while in excess of 100,000 people have been displaced in the state since 2011. Human rights groups have accused the Tatmadaw of adopting heavy-handed tactics and employing a ‘scorched earth’ policy in conflict-affected regions.

A UN report in March documented ‘credible reports of indiscriminate and disproportionate attacks, extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, torture, rape and other forms of sexual violence’ at the hands of the army in Kachin. Human Rights Watch has warned of a ‘dire humanitarian situation’ in the state. The Tatmadaw denies all allegations of abuses, and maintains it only targets armed insurgents.

Why is the peace process failing, and can it be revived?

Amid rising violence, the third round of the Panglong initiative in July made little meaningful progress. A group of four powerful non-signatory rebel groups from the north, including the KIA and TNLA, met with Suu Kyi on the sidelines of the summit, yet there is still little sign they are willing to join the NCA. The peace process, in its current form, appears to be stalling: talks have reached an impasse with NCA signatories, while the non-participation of other groups is blocking the path to a nationwide peace.

It will be hard for Suu Kyi to revive the fortunes of the faltering peace process in the current climate. Rebel demands for genuine autonomy and self-determination appear unlikely to be met, despite the government’s stated desire to turn Myanmar into a federal union. With the Tatmadaw still dominant and primarily concerned with preserving the territorial integrity of the state, any attempt by the NLD to cede too much ground to ethnic rebels would not go down well with the generals, and would risk the removal of Suu Kyi from power. Military leaders effectively hold a veto over all decisions made by democratically-elected politicians. The rhetoric of the generals suggests the rebels’ demands will not be met in full. Despite Tatmadaw chief Gen. Min Aung Hlaing calling for a ‘brotherly spirit’ to drive the peace process forward, he has also warned against giving too much away to ethnic minorities or local political parties. In July, Hlaing said ‘armed ethnic groups in some regions cannot represent the entire national people of 52 million, and political parties only represent a particular walk of life’. In contrast, he said ‘the people’s Tatmadaw, born of ethnic people, is an organization representing the state and the people’. In this context, Suu Kyi’s vision for a federal union with devolved powers is restricted. The army sees itself as the unifying force in Myanmar, and is averse to giving up control over defense and security matters. It is hard to imagine the Tatmadaw agreeing to withdraw its troops from ethnic areas.

A second barrier to peace is the long-standing lack of trust between the communities represented by insurgent groups and the Tatmadaw. A history of alleged army abuses in the form of disappearances, extrajudicial killings, sexual abuse and the use of slave labor will be hard to forget for deeply scarred populations, even in the event of a peace deal. Seven decades of conflict has fermented anger on both sides, with each viewing the other as the enemy. This factor serves to make the peace process fragile, and may rear its head if or when more contentious issues are discussed at a later stage of negotiations.

Future forecast: looking beyond Myanmar’s current political climate

Withstanding international criticism over her handling of the Rohingya situation, away from the global media spotlight Aung San Suu Kyi has made considerable efforts to resolve conflicts outside Rakhine state, making internal peace-making elsewhere a political priority. Yet it appears on the battlefield, the army has different ideas, and things have continued much the same as before. In fact, violence on several fronts has worsened since the NLD’s victory, mainly due to conflict dynamics at the local level.

While Suu Kyi’s personal view on the Rohingya is shrouded in mystery, it is clear that her government is not able to act independently of the Tatmadaw, which still maintains a stranglehold over Myanmar’s politics and security. To what extent Suu Kyi is willingly allowing the army’s abuses to go unchecked, or not opting to speak out for fear of losing power, is unclear. In the domestic political context, it may suit Suu Kyi to remain silent, as many in the Bamar ethnic majority support the crackdown in Rakhine.

Yet in other areas where conflicts are raging, the story is different. Suu Kyi rode to power in 2015 with widespread support from ethnic minority voters, hopeful the NLD-led government would be able to reduce violence in their communities. If the stalling peace process cannot be revived, Suu Kyi risks losing a proportion of this vote at the ballot box in 2020, risking the military once again firming up its grip on power. These complex electoral dynamics and the increasingly volatile events of recent years demonstrate how the situation in Myanmar is far more nuanced than outside interpretations suggest.

Even beyond the present political era of quasi-civilian part-democratic governance, Myanmar’s ethnic insurgencies will remain highly resistant to resolution. Rather than vague ceasefires and half-hearted peace initiatives, it will take generational shifts and years of trust-building to lend dialogue a chance.

This article was published by Geopolitical Monitor.com