January is the first anniversary of Iran’s protests. Massive demonstrations shock Iran to the core. A year passed and the Iranian regime’s officials are celebrating their survival. Although supreme leader Ali Khamenei told his followers not to go overboard with joy because in his words” The enemy may have big plans for next year.” He is right since the year has been a very difficult one for the regime. It is safe to say that not a day passed without some kind of protest here and there. Khamenei and his accomplices foresaw a quick end to last year protests like all other uprisings in past 40 years.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards top brass predicted that this round of protests which initially were a natural reaction to economic ruin of the country soon would blow off. But Iranian citizens surprise the rulers with successive demonstrations, protests and sit-ins. Simply by not giving in, they decided this time to wear the regime down.

The protests in Iran last January began with demands for food on the tables but they quickly turned into political demands. Because soon the people realized that this regime neither want nor is able to give them what they wanted.

Shortly after the initial sparks, the protests mushroomed into 140 cities across Iran. An estimated 8000 protesters were arrested and over 50 were killed by the security forces. A fairly new scheme used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Intelligence Unit for wiping out the most vocal prisoners while in custody was to kill them under torture and then claim they “committed suicide.” No one bought it. It is hard to guess exactly how many prisoners were killed in custody but it is safe to say at least 12.

In August, more than 1,000 people were arrested during protests in Tehran and other provinces over deteriorating economic conditions and corruption. A protester was murdered in Karaj, during the week-long protests.

The fifth round of truckers strikes has just begun. In the third round, At least 264 of striking drivers were arrested for allegedly blocking roads and trying to pressure colleagues to join the strike. Since January 2018, 7442 months prison sentences were handed down by the regime’s judiciary while giving 2694 lashes for protesters. 263 death sentences were carried out by the security forces last year. All numbers show a sharp upward spike since the previous year.

“Iran spring” underway

It is not at all far from truth to think that events of last year in Iran draw serious resemblance to that of Arab Spring. The difference is that Iran’s protests have not stopped because unlike previous ones which were brutally crushed by the regime, the new rounds have involved all Iranians and they are not isolated and limited geographically. What makes it more frightening for the regime, as many of its top officials keep reminding, is that US sanctions are biting hard and this is a recipe for disaster. No matter how hard President Hassan Rouhani tries to imply in his hope therapies sessions, now often given across the country, saying that it is business as usual and the theocratic regime is in complete control, a look into their empty pockets tell them otherwise.

A few days ago, Khomeini’s grandson Hassan rose the curtain when he said that we may not be around for long.

“There is no guarantee we will remain and others will go. If we don’t follow the rules, they will take your place,” he said. “We must beware of the day that our posts are changed and roles are completely transformed.”

Keep in mind that Hassan Khomeini still has enough clout in the regime’s circles especially among that of so called “reformists.” Hassan is the custodian of his grandfather’s multi-billion dollar shrine outside Tehran.

Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, said in an interview with a Tehran daily published on December 27 that “intimidation” and “fear” were the main things propping up the Islamic establishment.

“In my view, a breakdown [of principles] has already happened, there hasn’t been a physical collapse, but I see that as very likely,” Hashemi told Mostaghel newspaper.

Faezeh and his father belong to so-called “reformists” camp.

“Presently, if you look at any domain, some of the activists of that domain are in prison, including workers, teachers, truck drivers, women’s rights activists and environmental activists, students, and economic activists,” Rafsanjani said. “But in content, the collapse has already happened because wherever you look, the system is not working,” Hashemi said.

Ahmad Salak, a member of the Iranian regime’s Majlis (parliament), is another insider voicing similar concerns in a recent interview.

“The enemy intends to increase our economic dilemmas and turn them into public protests… We cannot be certain there is not a new sedition in the making. The enemy seeks to constantly claim the country is not functioning correctly and there are vast problems and corruption, all to encourage the public to stop supporting the [mullahs’ regime] and for [them] to come and resolve the people’s dilemmas,” Salak told the paper.

Although it seems that the ruling clerics are still in control but scratching the surface tells us an entirely different story. Iranian people yearn for a democratic change in Iran and that will not happen unless they rid themselves of this regime; something that should have happened a long time ago. 

This article also appeared at Al-Arabiya

2019 will be a big political year in Lithuania, with elections in national focus. Lithuania will hold presidential, municipal and European Parliament elections this year.

Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite in her traditional New Year congratulation message was very restrained and short-spoken. She clearly understands that she did nothing outstanding to be proud of. This message looked more as a warning. It could be read between the lines that she warned of a new difficult year with the same unsolved problems.

The outgoing president said that “there are many challenges ahead next year – on the international arena and domestically.” It is hard to disagree. Lithuanian politics in 2018 has not been shaped by brilliant economic, social or military policy decisions or results.

Thus, Lithuanian politician, Kęstutis Girnius, is also sure that the coming year will not be easy. He said that the prolonged massive teacher strikes at the end of the year is a very important thing to remember in 2019. “Teachers and medics are those professional groups in Lithuania that always stand up and speak up. Neither this government nor the previous ones were able to solve their issues.”

The authorities did not consider those groups’ problems important in due course and as a result they faced national defiance. Much more seriously the authorities treated the Russian threat, though yet only potential.

In the past year, the military budgets of the Baltic countries swiftly overcame the two percent barrier. The region’s political elite concentrated on anti-Russian rhetoric, very often to the detriment of their economic interests. Though authorities need to recognize the impossibility to change the political course of the giant Russia. For example, Lithuania’s 2 percent of GDP on defence expenditures will not stop Russia, but could seriously harm the welfare of its people. Supporting the US’ idea of increasing defence expending, at the same time Lithuanian government overlooked the real problems of teachers and doctors putting them at risk of poverty.

The more so, the authorities believe in vain that ordinary people do not understand the threat of an armed conflict between Russia and the US on the territory of the Baltics. Providing the territory for conducting large-scale maneuvers the Baltic States irritate Russia and necessitate her to deploy troops closer to their borders. Closed circle: even small increasing of defence capabilities in the Baltic States causes huge increasing of defence capabilities in Russia. Closed circle.

Women’s Health Research at Yale (WHRY) is calling on a government committee to revise its report on a coordinated response to the opioid epidemic so that it reflects the unique needs of women.

In a commentary published in the peer-reviewed journal Biology of Sex Differences, WHRY Director Carolyn M. Mazure, Ph.D., and Jill Becker, Ph.D., chair of the Biopsychology Area of the University of Michigan Psychology Department, detailed the laboratory, clinical, and epidemiological evidence showing the need for the report to endorse and encourage the research of sex and gender differences. They argued such data is necessary to generate gender-based interventions that more fully address the opioid epidemic.

“All data must be reported by sex and gender so that gender-specific treatment and prevention strategies derived from this research are provided to practitioners and the public,” the authors said. “We encourage biomedical researchers and clinical care providers, as well as the public, to insist that a successful response to the opioid crisis should highlight the importance of understanding sex and gender differences in the current opioid epidemic.”

Mazure and Becker noted that the draft report of the White House National Science and Technology Council’s Fast-Track Action Committee (FTAC) created to respond to the opioid crisis does include important concerns about maternal and neonatal exposure to opioids. But they said the draft, released in October, overlooks significant and growing data on sex and gender differences in opioid use disorder (OUD). For example, they wrote that women are more likely than men to be prescribed and use opioid analgesics and that females and males experience pain and the effects of opioids differently.

In addition, women more quickly develop addictions after first using addictive substances, and women are more likely than men to relapse after a quit attempt.

The authors also described how women with opioid addiction are more likely than men to have experienced early trauma and have been diagnosed with depression. And women with opioid addiction suffer greater functional impairment in their lives, impacting their ability to work, secure steady housing, and — because women are more often family caretakers — avoid negative effects on children.

“Our experimental models will not begin to yield the desired information until they employ appropriate models that include both females and males, and our clinical and epidemiological investigations will not uncover needed data until both women and men are studied,” the authors said. “A successful response to the opioid crisis will only be found when scientists, practitioners and the public incorporate the essential importance of understanding sex and gender differences into the solution for OUD.”

Gol-e-Zard Cave lies in the shadow of Mount Damavand, which at more than 5,000 metres dominates the landscape of northern Iran. In this cave, stalagmites and stalactites are growing slowly over millennia and preserve in them clues about past climate events. Changes in stalagmite chemistry from this cave have now linked the collapse of the Akkadian Empire to climate changes more than 4,000 years ago.

Akkadia was the world’s first empire. It was established in Mesopotamia around 4,300 years ago after its ruler, Sargon of Akkad, united a series of independent city states. Akkadian influence spanned along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers from what is now southern Iraq, through to Syria and Turkey. The north-south extent of the empire meant that it covered regions with different climates, ranging from fertile lands in the north which were highly dependent on rainfall (one of Asia’s “bread baskets”), to the irrigation-fed alluvial plains to the south.

It appears that the empire became increasingly dependent on the productivity of the northern lands and used the grains sourced from this region to feed the army and redistribute the food supplies to key supporters. Then, about a century after its formation, the Akkadian Empire suddenly collapsed, followed by mass migration and conflicts. The anguish of the era is perfectly captured in the ancient Curse of Akkad text, which describes a period of turmoil with water and food shortages:

… the large arable tracts yielded no grain, the inundated fields yielded no fish, the irrigated orchards yielded no syrup or wine, the thick clouds did not rain.

Drought and dust

The reason for this collapse is still debated by historians, archaeologists and scientists. One of the most prominent views, championed by Yale archaeologist Harvey Weiss (who built on earlier ideas by Ellsworth Huntington), is that it was caused by an abrupt onset of drought conditions which severely affected the productive northern regions of the empire.

Weiss and his colleagues discovered evidence in northern Syria that this once prosperous region was suddenly abandoned around 4,200 years ago, as indicated by a lack of pottery and other archaeological remains. Instead, the rich soils of earlier periods were replaced by large amounts of wind-blown dust and sand, suggesting the onset of drought conditions. Subsequently, marine cores from the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea which linked the input of dust into the sea to distant sources in Mesopotamia, provided further evidence of a regional drought at the time.

Many other researchers viewed Weiss’s interpretation with scepticism, however. Some argued, for example, that the archaeological and marine evidence was not accurate enough to demonstrate a robust correlation between drought and societal change in Mesopotamia.

A new detailed climate record

Now, stalagmite data from Iran sheds new light on the controversy. In a study published in the journal PNAS, led by Oxford palaeoclimatologist Stacy Carolin, colleagues and I provide a very well dated and high resolution record of dust activity between 5,200 and 3,700 years ago. And cave dust from Iran can tell us a surprising amount about climate history elsewhere.

Gol-e-Zard Cave might be several hundred miles to the east of the former Akkadian Empire, but it is directly downwind. As a result, around 90% of the region’s dust originates in the deserts of Syria and Iraq.

That desert dust has a higher concentration of magnesium than the local limestone which forms most of Gol-e-Zard’s stalagmites (the ones which grow upwards from the cave floor). Therefore, the amount of magnesium in the Gol-e-Zard stalagmites can be used as an indicator of dustiness at the surface, with higher magnesium concentrations indicating dustier periods, and by extension drier conditions.

The stalagmites have the additional advantage that they can be dated very precisely using uranium-thorium chronology. Combining these methods, our new study provides a detailed history of dustiness in the area, and identifies two major drought periods which started 4,510 and 4,260 years ago, and lasted 110 and 290 years respectively. The latter event occurs precisely at the time of the Akkadian Empire’s collapse and provides a strong argument that climate change was at least in part responsible.

The collapse was followed by mass migration from north to south which was met with resistance by the local populations. A 180km wall – the “Repeller of the Amorites” – was even built between the Tigris and Euphrates in an effort to control immigration, not unlike some strategies proposed today. The stories of abrupt climate change in the Middle East therefore echo over millennia to the present day.

This article was originally published in The Conversation.

The early-stage study, from scientists at Imperial College London, investigated the sperm quality of 50 men whose partners had suffered three or more consecutive miscarriages.

The research, published in the journal Clinical Chemistry, revealed that, compared to men whose partners had not experienced miscarriages, the sperm of those involved in the study had higher levels of DNA damage.

The study team hope these findings may open new avenues to finding treatments to reduce the risk of miscarriage.

Recurrent miscarriage affects around one in 50 couples in the UK, and is defined as the consecutive loss of three of more pregnancies before 20 weeks gestation.

Until recently recurrent miscarriage was thought to be caused by health issues with the mother, such as infection or immune problems.

However, doctors are now realising sperm health may also play a role, explained Dr Channa Jayasena, lead author of the research from Imperial’s Department of Medicine: “Traditionally doctors have focused attention on women when looking for the causes of recurrent miscarriage. The men’s health – and the health of their sperm, wasn’t analysed.

“However, this research adds to a growing body of evidence that suggests sperm health dictates the health of a pregnancy. For instance, previous research suggests sperm has an important role in the formation of the placenta, which is crucial for oxygen and nutrient supply to the foetus.”

In the new research, the team analysed the sperm of 50 men who were patients at the Recurrent Miscarriage Clinic at St Mary’s Hospital in London, part of Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust.

They then compared the results to the sperm health of 60 male volunteers whose partners had not suffered miscarriage.

The analysis revealed sperm from men with partners who had suffered recurrent miscarriage had twice as much DNA damage compared to the control group.

The research team suggest this DNA damage may be triggered by so-called reactive oxygen species.

There are molecules formed by cells in semen (the fluid that contains sperm cells) to protect sperm from bacteria and infection. However, in high enough concentrations the molecules can cause significant damage to sperm cells.

The results from the study revealed sperm from men whose partners had suffered miscarriage had a four-fold increase in the amount of reactive oxygen species compared to the control group.

The research team are now investigating what may trigger high levels of these reactive oxygen species.

Dr Jayasena explained: “Although none of the men in the trial had any ongoing infection such as chlamydia – which we know can affect sperm health – it is possible there may be other bacteria from previous infections lingering in the prostate gland, which makes semen. This may lead to permanently high levels of reactive oxygen species.”

He added there is increasing evidence obesity can lower sperm health – possibly because high levels of body fat can trigger an increase in reactive oxygen species. Therefore the team are analysing the metabolic health of the 50 men in the study, and assessing weight and cholesterol levels.

The men whose partners had suffered miscarriage were also slightly older than the control group – with an average age of 37 compared to 30, and were slightly more overweight. The team are now investigating whether these factors may have affected the levels of reactive oxygen species.

Dr Jayasena concluded: “Although this is a small study, it gives us clues to follow. If we confirm in further work that high levels of reactive oxygen species in semen increase the risk of miscarriage, we could try to develop treatments that lower these levels and increase the chance of a healthy pregnancy.

“It has taken medicine a long time to realise sperm health has a role to play in miscarriage – and that the cause doesn’t lie solely with women. Now we realise both partners contribute to recurrent miscarriage, we can hopefully get a clearer picture of the problem and start to look for ways of ensuring more pregnancies result in a healthy baby.”

The work was supported by the Medical Research Council, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, and the National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre.

There is no question, Russian commentator Stanislav Belkovsky says, that the grant of the tomos of autocephaly to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine is “the beginning of the end” of the Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate, something all the more likely because Moscow didn’t think Ukrainian autocephaly would happen.

That is just one sign of how out of touch the church hierarchy is and how it failed to make an argument with the Universal Patriarch in religious terms but limited itself to politics alone, an approach, Belkovsky says, which almost certainly guaranteed its loss on Ukraine and more besides (afterempire.info/2019/01/05/belkovskiy-rpc/).

The hierarchy of the ROC MP around Patriarch Kirill thus has shown itself to be more an arm of the secular authorities than a religious organization, perhaps not surprising, the commentator says, because “faith in God is not an obligatory condition for membership in the Orthodox Church in present-day Russia.”

The ROC MP was set up “as is well known by Joseph Stalin in September 1943 as atype of ministry which should fulfill specific subfunctions in the general system of state power” in the USSR. Only at the end of the 1980s and beginning of the 1990s did it separate in fact from the state. But very rapidly, the ROC MP returned to being what it had been, an arm of the state.

That origin and that return, Belkovsky says, has played “a bad joke” on the ROC MP: its subordination to the Kremlin in all things including in particular the 2014 invasion of Ukraine has led “the inevitable recognition of Ukrainian autocephaly” first by the Universal Patriarch in Constantinople and soon by Orthodox churches throughout the world.

Before 2014, few considered Ukrainian autocephaly possible, “but everything changed after 2014 precisely because the ROC MP not only did not distance itself from the Putin state but demonstrably deepened its dependence on it.” The ROC MP has no right to complain about the OCU’s ties with Kyiv given that its own with the Kremlin are far tighter.

Now, if Putin wants to replace Kirill with Tikhon as patriarch, there is nothing standing in his way; and that shows to all the world that the ROC MP has lost the right to present itself as a religious organization. It is that only for some of its hierarchs, some of its priests and some of its laity. For most of all three, it is something else, a political body.

That condemns it to lose status at home and abroad and means that when the current Russian government passes from the scene, so too will the ROC MP. It has no basis for an existence independent of the state and so will live and die with it, Belkovsky suggests.

Many commentators in Ukraine and even in Russia have adopted an even more negative line about  the ROC MP. Perhaps the most damning are those who suggest that while the OCU received its tomos from the Universal Patriarch, the ROC MP received it not from a church official but from Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin (e.g., bitvazaurozay.livejournal.com/698691.html).

Such observations will do little to keep the ROC MP alive as a church, although they may lead the Kremlin and its security services to double down on their defense of their own ideological branch. 

By Georgi Gotev

(EurActiv) — Bulgaria’s President Rumen Radev slammed on Sunday (6 January) the government of Boyko Borissov for having “perverted” the procedure for the acquisition of new fighter jets.

Bulgaria wants to buy eight fighter jets to replace its ageing Soviet-designed MiG-29s, in a tender estimated at 1.8 billion levs (€900 million). The United States offered two options: either new Lockheed Martin F-16V jets or new Boeing F-18 Super Hornets. Sweden offered new Saab Gripen jets, while Italy proposed supplying second-hand Eurofighters.

Speaking to journalists at the last EU summit, Borissov made it clear that he had made his choice in favour of F-16.

On 21 December, it was announced that the government will propose to the Parliament the country to buy the F-16 Block 72 ‘Viper’ to be built by Lockheed Martin.

The Swedish company Saab criticised the decision, saying that the Bulgarian side had “changed the rules of the game” and that in making its choice for F-16, it did not take into account four out of seven criteria of the tender.

Krassimira Stoyanova, Vice President of Saab for Central and Eastern Europe, said on national TV on 23 December that the version of F-16 chosen by Bulgaria does not even exist, and that even the plant where they would be produced doesn’t exist either. She also claimed that the cost for the US planes would be significantly higher than the ceiling required by the tender.

Radev, who was a military pilot and head of the Bulgarian air force before being elected as president in November 2016, has gained prominence in criticising Borissov on many issues. Asked on Sunday to comment the government’s decision to buy F-16, he called the procedure “perverted” and said it was a “triple blow against Bulgaria”.

“I insisted that the [tender] procedure and financial framework be respected, which guarantees the best choice, no matter which aircraft it would be. The government did the opposite – they announced the winner in breach of their own rules and those of the Parliament, and even committed to pay an enormous amount”, Radev said.

He said that all this amounted to a “triple blow”, because of the higher price, but also because of “the blow against our European partners, which the government uses as figurants in the tender”, adding that the blow was also against the US partners, who in his words should realise that Bulgarians know that they won via lobbyism, not according to the rules.

“How can we expect winning the respect of Europe and the world, if we don’t respect our own laws and rules”, Radev asked a rhetoric question.

The defence minister Krassimir Karakachanov was quoted as saying that the cabinet will start negotiations with the US, and if those are not satisfactory, the effort could continue with the next competitor.

“Thank you, Satan.” That’s what British-American actor Christian Bale said upon winning the Golden Globes award for best actor. His shot was aimed at former vice president Dick Cheney, whom he played in “Vice.”

The crowd loved it. Not surprisingly, the Church of Satan commended him for his remarks. Had Bale thanked Jesus, all of them would have been stunned. And disappointed.

Raised without any religion, Bale’s vision of Christianity was Hollywoodish from the get-go. “I always pictured Jesus as Neil Diamond when I was younger.”

When Bale played Moses in Ridley Scott’s “Exodus: Gods and Kings,” he once again showcased his intellectual prowess by calling Moses a “schizophrenic,” a “barbarian,” and a “terrorist.”

This guy has some real issues. In 2008, he was accused of assaulting his mother and his sister, the kind of thing even Satanists would be reluctant to applaud. It now becomes obvious why he was chosen to star in the 2000 movie, “American Psycho.” That was a natural for him. What’s next is anyone’s guess.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani stressed the need for plans to ensure the country’s food security and agricultural self-sufficiency.

In a meeting with Agriculture Ministry officials and staff on Monday, Rouhani emphasized the necessity for making the country self-sufficient in agricultural and cattle products.

Praising farmers for bearing the burden of food security in Iran, the president said security would be meaningless if there were public concerns about the supply of food products.

While farmers ensure food security in Iran, the administration is responsible to ensure their security as well, Rouhani said, adding that a farmer with concerns about producing and selling farm products could not naturally create security for the society.

He then highlighted the need for plans to settle the problems that farmers are grappling with, including drought, pests, extreme weather and lack of water.

While many people believe that Iran has problems in developing advanced technologies and high-tech industries, the country has actually difficulty in supplying forage, corn, and input for the cattle industry, and imports a large amount of such products each year, the president noted.  

“We must stand on our own feet in supplying food stuff and satisfy our demands through Iranian farms,” he added.

By Philip Booth*

The rise of the gilets jaunes rioters in France took many people by surprise. President Emmanuel Macron has caved in to the rioters’ demands and offered other policy concessions to try to mollify them. In doing so he is exacerbating the problems that led to people taking to the streets. His actions will certainly not resolve France’s underlying economic problems.

In the week of December 10, an estimated 130,000 people took part in the riots. The police arrested more than 1,700 people. Officials said that 264 people were injured, including 39 police and gendarmes and several journalists. These riots are serious events and the concern must be that they are the beginning of a trend. High fuel costs, high taxes and the high cost of living were the main factors that led people to take to the streets. However, high levels of unemployment (in part caused by extraordinarily high taxes on low-paid labour) will have been to blame, too.

Arguably, we are beginning to see the results of the disastrous decisions to set up “pay-as-you-go” pension and healthcare systems after the Second World War. Instead of each generation building up savings to provide for the expenses of old age, it is the taxes of the working generation that pay for the pensions and healthcare of the retired generation in these unsustainable systems.

As people live longer and birth rates have fallen, there are relatively fewer workers to pay the taxes to fund the benefits paid to older people. As a result, Western nations are finding that taxes and government spending are increasing, but services and welfare provision are deteriorating. Spending is being stretched across larger numbers of older people. Taxpayers are poorer and the recipients of benefits are poorer, as well. Everybody is dissatisfied, but Macron can only make concessions to the rioters by loading burdens onto other groups within society.

State pension schemes run on a pay-as-you-go basis are often known as “social solidarity” schemes, especially in France. This is a terrible misnomer. The mechanism by which a given generation of workers votes themselves pension and health benefits, expecting the next generation to pay for them, seems designed to create social conflict.

A number of authors pointed out the instability of these pension and healthcare systems in the 1990s, when there was still time to do something about it. We also predicted the conflict that was then two decades away. Unfortunately, it was easier for politicians to do nothing. Writing in the journal Economic Affairs in 1998, I commented:

Kessler (1996) suggests that social solidarity could, in fact, dissolve into social conflict. He asks what will happen if today’s young people decide that they do not wish their standard of living to fall as a result of pension promises made to future generations? They could express dissatisfaction through the ballot box. However, if this fails, because of the growing number of pension voters, the young might express their dissatisfaction about higher taxes or the lowering of the standards of public services provided to the young by non-political means. Essentially, the socialised systems can lead to inherent conflicts within society.

As it happens, D. Kessler is French.

As predictions go, this was quite a good one, and the gilets jaunes are a manifestation of this problem that was identified by many people over 20 years ago. Almost certainly, though, other widespread expressions of dissatisfaction within political systems are caused by the same phenomenon.

In fact, Kessler and I were not the first to comment on this issue. A highly prescient statement was made by an American actuary, Edward Marshall, soon after the war at a meeting in the UK he said:

There was at the existing time great political pressure from Governments to adopt or maintain ambitious programmes of so-called social security, with perhaps too little understanding of their ultimate effect on the social and economic structure. A sound social insurance and superannuation programme could sustain and strengthen a nation; on the other hand, a sufficiently unsound one could ultimately destroy it. Furthermore, once such a programme was put into effect, it became politically impossible to discard it or to reduce the benefit scales which it was beyond the ability of the nation’s economy to support.

All these things are true. If we measure the value of the pension promises that have been made by governments to current and future generations of older people, they are of the order of 400 per cent of national income. In other words, they dwarf by a factor of four the already extraordinary level of explicit government debt accumulated by nations such as the U.S., the UK, and France. What a legacy we are leaving to our children.

But what has this got to do with Christians? Should we care? We certainly should.

There are few Christians who do not worry about climate change. Pope Francis’ document on the environment, Laudato si, relates the problem to matters of justice. Laudato si mentions justice on 32 occasions and has a specific section on intergenerational justice. Intergenerational justice can be thought of as a subset of distributive justice. Climate change is regarded as a matter of intergenerational justice, because today’s generations are benefiting at the expense of future generations. This is also true of pay-as-you-go health and pensions systems. The young people of past generations voted themselves benefits expecting the following generation to pick up the cost. Unlike with funded schemes, the generation that expected the benefits in the future did not make a financial sacrifice by saving for the future.

Another lesson for Christians is that they should rein in their tendency for “welfare worship.” There is a tendency amongst Christian leaders to criticise any cut in welfare provision. It is precisely this tendency that has led us to where we are today – the imposition of a totally unjust burden of taxation on the younger generation: a burden that is destroying employment and lowering their living standards. Every dollar, pound, or euro of borrowing to fund welfare represents a transfer of resources away from today’s young people, as their taxes will have to rise in the coming years to service the increased debt.

Things would not be so bad, of course, if today’s Baby Boomers had more children. Indeed, pay-as-you-go pensions systems can be sustainable as long as the age distribution of the population remains stable. Catholic moral theologians in particular might have something to say about the declining birth rate. Indeed, traditionally Catholic countries will have the biggest problems over the next 30 years because of the very sharp decline in their birth rates.

There are two sustainable ways to look after older people. One is through extended families. The other is through saving, funding, and investment. Christians should speak out against the injustice of generations promising themselves benefits to be paid for by other future generations – indeed, they should have spoken out 30 years ago. The systems of welfare provision that we have set up are unsustainable, unjust, and may well lead to the breakdown of civil society and an increased tendency of young people to turn to violence to get what they regard as just restitution.

*About the author: Philip Booth is Professor of Finance, Public Policy and Ethics, St. Mary’s University, Twickenham, which is the UK’s largest Catholic university. He is also a senior academic fellow at the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA).

Source: This article was published by the Acton Institute

By Najia Houssari

Lebanon on Monday resisted mounting pressure from Hezbollah to invite a delegation from Syria to an Arab economic summit next week in Beirut.

Syrian leader Bashar Assad is also unlikely to be invited to the next Arab League summit in Tunisia in March, after a planned meeting to discuss Syria’s readmission to the body was canceled.

The Arab League suspended Syria’s membership in November 2011 and imposed political and economic sanctions over the Syrian civil war. Three months later, the Gulf Cooperation Council states withdrew their ambassadors from Damascus. 

However, as the Assad regime solidifies its military victory after seven years of war, with help from Russia and Iran, there is growing pressure to normalize relations.

In Lebanon, the campaign is being led by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah. The group’s parliamentary bloc said it was “in Lebanon’s interest to invite Syria to participate in the Arab Economic
and Social Development Summit,” which begins in Beirut on Jan. 16.

Inviting Syria “would strengthen Lebanon and would be in its strategic interest, especially as current developments are creating a positive Arab atmosphere that is seeing Arab states rushing back to Damascus, and as Syria’s closest neighbor and considering the country’s interests, Lebanon should be at the forefront of efforts to reinforce and strengthen this atmosphere,” Hezbollah said.

If Syria were not invited the summit should be postponed, the group said, but Lebanon rejected both suggestions.

“Lebanon is hosting and organizing the Arab Economic and Social Development Summit but is not the one inviting states. Invitations remain the competence of the Arab League,” Rafiq Chlala, head of the summit’s media committee, told Arab News. 

“Syria had not attended the previous Arab summits upon the Arab League’s decision, but it can return to participating by a decision from the Arab League,” he said.

“Lebanon has nothing to do with this issue, and President Aoun has pledged not to postpone the economic summit and to hold it on time.”

President Michel Aoun confirmed that the summit “will be held on time,” and said Lebanon’s failure for the past eight months to form a Cabinet of ministers under Prime Minister Saad Hariri was no reason to postpone it.

“The current government is exercising its powers according to the constitution,” he said.

Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and the emir of Kuwait, Sheikh Sabah Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, have already confirmed their attendance. Other Arab leaders are expected to do so in the next few days.

Delegates will meet initially on Jan. 16 to agree on the topics for discussion and draft a communique. Foreign ministers will meet on Jan. 18, followed by delegation chiefs and national leaders on Jan. 19, before the full summit on Jan. 20.

Newly inaugurated Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is set to be the arch-enemy of the environment and of indigenous and disadvantaged communities in his country. He also promises to be a friend of like-minded far-right leaders the world over.

It is, therefore, not surprising to see a special kind of friendship blossoming between Bolsonaro and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “We need good brothers like Netanyahu,” Bolsonaro said after receiving him ahead of his inauguration in Brasilia on Jan. 1. Bolsonaro is a “great ally (and) a brother,” the Israeli PM replied.

But, while Bolsonaro sees in Netanyahu a role model — for reasons that should worry many Brazilians — the country certainly does not need “brothers” like the Israeli leader.

Netanyahu’s militancy, oppression of the indigenous Palestinian people, his racially motivated targeting of black African immigrants and his persistent violations of international law are not at all what a country like Brazil needs to escape corruption, bring about communal harmony and usher in an era of regional integration and economic prosperity.

Netanyahu, of course, was keen on attending Bolsonaro’s inauguration, which is likely to go down in Brazilian history as an infamous day, where democracy and human rights came under their most serious threat since the nation launched its democratic transition in the early 1980s.

In recent years, Brazil has emerged as a sensible regional power that defended Palestinian human rights and championed the integration of the “State of Palestine” into the larger international community. Frustrated by Brazil’s record on Palestine and Israel, Netanyahu, a shrewd politician, saw an opportunity in the populist discourse parroted by Bolsonaro during his campaign.

The new Brazilian president wants to reverse Brazil’s foreign policy on Palestine and Israel, the same way he wants to reverse all the policies of his predecessors regarding indigenous rights and the protection of the rainforest, among other pressing matters.

What is truly worrying is that Bolsonaro, who has been likened to Donald Trump — not least because of his vow to “make Brazil great again” — is likely to keep his promises. Indeed, only hours after his inauguration, he issued an executive order targeting land rights of indigenous peoples in Brazil, to the delight of the agricultural lobbies, which are eager to cut down much of the country’s forests.

Confiscating indigenous peoples’ territories, as Bolsonaro plans to do, is something that Netanyahu, his government and their predecessors have done without remorse for many years. Yes, it is clear that the claim of “brotherhood” is based on very solid ground.

But there are other dimensions to the love affair between the two leaders. Much work has been invested in turning Brazil from having an arguably pro-Palestinian government to a Trump-like foreign policy.

In his campaign, Bolsonaro reached out to conservative political groups, the never truly tamed military and Evangelical churches, all with powerful lobbies, sinister agendas and unmistakable influence. Such groups have historically, not only in South America, but in the US and other countries too, conditioned their political support for any candidate on the unconditional and blind support of Israel. This is how the US has become the main benefactor for Israel, and is precisely how Tel Aviv aims to conquer new political grounds.

The Western world, in particular, is turning toward far-right demagogues for simple answers to complicated and convoluted problems. Brazil, thanks to Bolsonaro and his supporters, is now joining this disturbing trend.

Israel is unabashedly exploiting the unmitigated rise of global neo-fascism and populism. Worse, these trends, once perceived to be anti-Semitic, are now wholly embraced by Tel Aviv, which is seeking to broaden its political influence and also its weapons market.

Politically, far-right parties understand that, in order for Israel to help them whitewash their past and present sins, they would have to submit completely to Israel’s agenda in the Middle East. And that is precisely what is taking place from Washington to Rome, Budapest to Vienna and, as of late, Brasilia.

But another, perhaps more compelling reason, is money. Israel has much to offer by way of its destructive war and “security” technology — a massive product line that has been used with lethal consequences against Palestinians.

The border control industry is thriving in the US and Europe. In both cases, Israel is the successful role model and the technology supplier. Israeli technology, thanks to the newfound sympathy for its alleged security problems, is now invading European borders.

According to Ynetnews, Israel is the seventh-largest arms exporter in the world and is emerging as a leader in the global export of drones. Europe’s excitement for Israel’s drone technology is related to mostly unfounded fears of migrants and refugees. In the case of Brazil, Israeli drones will be used in the fight against criminal gangs and for other internal reasons. For the record, Israeli drones manufactured by Elbit Systems were purchased and used by the former Brazilian government just before the FIFA World Cup in 2014.

What makes future deals between Brazil and Israel more alarming is the sudden affinity of far-right politicians in both countries. Expectedly, Bolsonaro and Netanyahu discussed the drones at length during the latter’s visit.

Israel has used extreme violence to counter Palestinian demands for human rights, including lethal violence against ongoing peaceful protests at the fence separating besieged Gaza from Israel. If Bolsonaro thinks that he will successfully counter local crimes through unhinged violence — as opposed to addressing social and economic inequality and the unfair distribution of wealth in his country — then he can only expect to exasperate an already horrific death toll.

Israeli security obsessions should not be duplicated, neither in Brazil nor anywhere else, and Brazilians, many of whom rightly worry about the state of democracy in their country, should not succumb to the Israeli militant mindset that has wrought no peace but much violence.

Israel exports wars to its neighbors, and war technology to the rest of the world. As many countries are plagued by conflict, often resulting from massive income inequalities, Israel should not be seen as the model to follow, but rather the example to avoid.

Brazil’s Foreign Minister Ernesto Araújo said Jan. 4 that the declaration released by the Lima Group—arguing that the power of Venezuela should be transferred from President Nicolás Maduro to the parliament—is an opportunity to restore democracy in the country. The message was posted on Araújo’s Twitter account shortly after he took off on a flight from Lima, capital of Peru, to Brasília.

The Lima Group, comprised of Brazil and 13 other countries urge Maduro to refrain from taking office on January 10, and instead to transfer his power to the National Assembly—the parliament. “The Declaration of Lima adopts the Brazilian proposal, urging Maduro to hand over his power to the National Assembly until democratic elections are held—a historic opportunity to restore Venezuela’s democracy,” Araújo tweeted.

Gathered in Lima, the chancellors of 13 of the 14 countries making up the group approved the declaration proposing new elections in Venezuela, and do not recognize Maduro’s re-election. They also appose carrying out an intervention in the country.

In addition to Brazil, the document was signed by Argentina, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Guiana, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, and Saint Lucia.

Mexico, also a member of the Lima Group, was the only country that did not support the text. This is the first time the Mexican government refrains from backing a declaration from the bloc, created in 2017 to pressure Maduro’s regime into conducting democratic overhauls—the sign of external political change after President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador was sworn in, in December last year.

The Lima Group assembly was the first activity overseas of Brazilian chancellor Ernesto Araújo in his post. The minister also attended a meeting at the Chilean embassy on the future of the Union of South American Nations (Unasur) and the crisis in Nicaragua.

By Cornelia Meyer*

Faced with an oil glut and a slowing economy, OPEC and its 10 allies (OPEC+) had agreed in their Dec. 6 -7 meetings to take 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) out of the market. 

Oil did not react — initially briefly undershooting the $50 per barrel mark just before Christmas.

The commodity has rallied since then by 7 percent, reaching $57.50 for Brent on Friday. It rose again on Monday in anticipation of US China trade talks.

Markets reacted to OPEC cutting output by 530,000 bpd since the December meeting. The organization now produces 32.6 million bpd. Not since January 2017 have we seen such drastic cuts by the OPEC member states. 

Like so often, the result was not achieved by scheduled cuts alone. Libya, which is exempted from the deal, surprised by cutting production by 110,000 bpd due to unforeseen domestic events. 

Iraq surprised on the upside, pumping more crude rather than curtailing output as promised. Iran’s production stands at 2.92 million bpd. It has declined by 23 percent since Donald Trump announced his sanctions regime. 

OPEC, and especially Saudi Arabia, delivered. The Kingdom cut production from a little over 11 million bpd in October to 10.3 million bpd in December. 

The Kingdom and OPEC reacted swiftly and it took markets less long to respond than last time around. The price increases were doubtless supported by the new year stock market raly, blockbuster employment numbers in the US and Jerome Powell’s assertion that the Fed would be responsive to markets.

Goldman Sachs still downgraded its outlook from $70 to $62.5 per barrel for Brent and from $64.50 to $55.50 per barrel for WTI. This tallies with the planning assumptions of US oil executives which stands at $65 per barrel for Brent and $50 per barrel for WTI.

The question is what are we to make of this mini-rally? What are we to expect in 2019?

A lot will depend on the macroeconomic performance. The outlook is not bad, but global growth has become desynchronized and the sky-high growth that was forecast in January 2018 had to be adjusted downward. JP Morgan just released a briefing note doubting that global growth would reach 3 percent in 2019 or 2020. 

All eyes are on the US China trade negotiations, because the outcome will inform where we are moving on global trade. Full-blown trade wars would lead to localization of supply chains and fewer finished goods being shipped across borders. 

This would clearly have a knock-on effect on the demand for oil. Conversely, if the world’s largest and second-biggest economies can come to an agreement over the next 50 days, demand prospects look better.

The big unknown is where the US intends to go on the Iran sanctions. Last year’s downward oil price slide was in part due to the State Department unexpectedly granting waivers from sanctions to the eight largest importers of Iranian crude. 

The oil price is only partly driven by fundamentals. A large component is the macroeconomic mood music, automated trading programs and algorithms.

Since OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo and Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih assumed their positions, OPEC has done a fine job balancing the markets as far as fundamentals are concerned. 

Institutionalizing the cooperation under OPEC+ has further underpinned the organization’s ability to intervene in a meaningful way. This was particularly important, because the US has become the big man on the bloc courtesy of its booming shale production. The US is the largest producer of crude and has become a net exporter of oil. Unlike Saudi Arabia or the UAE or even Russia, it is a highly entrepreneurial space and shareholders will not allow oil companies to hold spare capacity. 

That means US production cannot take pre-emptive actions to balance markets. The latter is important, because the higher the volatility in the oil price, the harder it becomes for oil companies to have disciplined investment programs and for consumers to plan hedging strategies.

The last month has shown that OPEC made good on its promise to balance markets. However, all the organization can do is to address the fundamental supply-and-demand balance. Macroeconomic trends and automated programs are beyond its purview. 

Clarity in messaging will be key for OPEC and OPEC+ in achieving the goal of balancing the oil markets. Communicating clearly and delivering on announcements are essential.

• Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economistand energy expert. Twitter: @MeyerResources

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has asked a visiting senior aide to US President Donald Trump to recognize Syria’s Golan Heights as Israeli territory.

“The Golan Heights is tremendously important for our security,” Netanyahu told US National Security Adviser John Bolton, during a joint statement after their meeting in Jerusalem al-Quds on Sunday.

Netanyahu said he was planning to take the Trump adviser on a tour of the occupied Golan Heights.

“When you’re there, you’ll be able to understand perfectly why we’ll never leave the Golan Heights and why it’s important that all countries recognize Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights,” Netanyahu said. “I’ve discussed this with the president, and I hope I have a chance to show it to you directly tomorrow on our visit.”

In 1967, the Israeli regime waged a full-scale war against Arab territories, including those of Syria, and occupied a large swathe of Syria’s Golan Heights.

In 1973, the Yom Kippur War broke out between the Israeli regime and a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt and Syria.

A year later, a UN-brokered ceasefire came into force, according to which the Israeli regime and the Syrian government agreed to separate their troops, and create a buffer zone patrolled by UN peacekeepers.

In late 1981, Israel passed the Golan Heights Law that extended the regime’s “laws, jurisdiction and administration” to the Golan Heights, effectively annexing the territory to Israel.

A few days after the law’s passage in Israel’s Knesset, UN Security Council Resolution 497 determined the law as “null and void and without international legal effect.”

Standing next to Bolton, Netanyahu praised Trump for recognizing Jerusalem al-Quds as Israel’s “capital,” for withdrawing from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement and for supporting the Israeli regime in international forums, saying the Trump administration backed Tel Aviv “both in word and deed.”

“It’s important to know that we have the backing of our great friend and ally, the United States of America,” he said.

The United Nations General Assembly overwhelmingly voted in favor of a resolution on the permanent sovereignty of Syria over natural resources of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights in 2018.

Also on Sunday, Bolton visited the Western Wall and its adjacent tunnels in the old city of Jerusalem al-Quds in a move that angered the Palestinians.

Accompanying him on the tour of the city were his Israeli counterpart, Meir Ben-Shabbat, Israeli Ambassador to the US Ron Dermer, and US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman.

Since the international community does not recognize Jerusalem al-Quds as Israeli territory, foreign dignitaries usually avoid having Israeli officials as company when they visit the Western Wall, which is considered as one of the most sacred Jewish sites.

Trump became the first sitting American head of state to visit the Western Wall In May 2017. Later on, he recognized Jerusalem al-Quds as Israel’s capital and proceeded to move the US diplomatic mission to the ancient city.

Israel occupied the West Bank and East Jerusalem al-Quds during the Six-Day War in 1967. It later annexed East Jerusalem al-Quds in a move not recognized by the international community.

Palestinians want the West Bank as part of a future independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem al-Quds as its capital.

Original source

Researchers from Singapore’s Duke-NUS Medical School, in collaboration with scientists in China, have identified and characterised a new genus of filovirus from a Rousettus bat in China. Their findings were published in the journal Nature Microbiology.

Bat-borne viruses around the world pose a threat to human and animal health. Filoviruses, especially Ebola virus and Marburg virus, are notoriously pathogenic and capable of causing severe and often fatal fever diseases in humans by affecting many organs and damaging blood vessels.

“Studying the genetic diversity and geographic distribution of bat-borne filoviruses is very important for risk assessment and outbreak prevention as this type of infectious disease can affect the general public without warning with devastating consequences,” said Professor Wang Lin-Fa, Director of the Emerging Infectious Diseases Signature Research Programme at Duke- NUS Medical School, Singapore, and a senior author of the study.

The researchers discovered the new virus while analysing the diversity of filoviruses in Rousettus bats. They named it the Mengla virus because it was discovered in Megla County, Yunnan Province, China. They detected the virus from a bat sample and conducted sequencing and functional characterization studies.

The results showed that the Menga virus represents a new genus named Dianlovirus within the filovirus group. The Mengla virus is genetically distinct, sharing just 32 percent to 54 percent of its genetic sequence with other known filoviruses. It is found in different geographic locations compared to other filoviruses. This new genus, which could include more than one species, sits in between Ebola virus and Marburg virus on the evolutionary tree.

The researchers tested the Mengla virus in cell lines from various animal species and found that, like other filoviruses, it poses a potential risk of interspecies transmission.

The results confirmed that the Mengla virus is evolutionarily closely related to Ebola virus and Marburg virus and shares several important functional similarities with them. For example, the genome organisation of the Mengla virus is consistent with other filoviruses, coding for seven genes. The Mengla virus also uses the same molecular receptor, a protein called NPC1, as Ebola virus and Marburg virus to gain entry into cells and cause infection.

“The early identification of the filovirus from Rousettus bats by Prof Wang and researchers in China is one of the many strong research collaborations the Emerging Infectious Diseases (EID) Programme at Duke-NUS engages in,” noted Professor Patrick Casey, Senior Vice Dean of Research, Duke-NUS Medical School. “With globalisation, it is important to identify and assess the risk of potential infectious disease outbreaks and, from it, develop effective controls strategies and treatments.”

At present, the virus has only been identified in Rousettus bats in China. Further tests will be conducted to assess the risk of the virus spreading to other species.

By Tushar Ranjan Mohanty*

On January 1, 2019, four Frontier Corps (FC) personnel were killed and another two injured during an exchange of fire with militants who were trying to enter the residential and administration compound at an FC training centre in Loralai District of Balochistan. Four militants were also killed.

Though this was the first incident of violence recorded in the Province in 2019 (data till January 4, 2019), Balochistan recorded a surge in terrorism-related fatalities in 2018, after registering a continuous decline over the preceding five years, 2013 to 2017.According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Balochistan recorded 388 fatalities – 243 civilians, 80 Security Force (SF) personnel, and 65 militants – in 2018, a spike of 13.78 per cent over the 2017 toll of 341 (182 civilians, 82 militants, and 77 SF personnel).

More worryingly, fatalities among civilians, one of the primary and most important indicators of security in any conflict theatre, witnessed a sharp rise, from 183 killed in 2017 to 239 in 2018, an increase of 30 per cent. The two most deadly attacks resulting in maximum civilian fatalities included:

July 25, 2018: 28 persons, including five Policemen and two minors, were killed and 30 injured in a suicide attack near a school area in the Bhosa Mandi area on the Eastern Bypass of Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan. The attack targeted the convoy of Deputy Inspector General (DIG) Abdul Razzaq Cheema, who remained unhurt in the attack, while Station House Officer (SHO) Bhosa Mandi succumbed to his injuries.

July 13, 2018: A suicide bomber targeting a political rally of the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) killed at least 149 people and injured over 186 in Dringarh village, Mastung District. The dead included Siraj Raisani, the BAP candidate from the National Assembly seat Province Balochistan–35 (PB-35, Mastung). Siraj’s elder brother, Nawab Aslam Raisani, was the Chief Minister of Balochistan Province between 2008 and 2013. Most of the other victims were residents of Kanak and Dringarh areas, who had invited Raisani to announce their support for him. The Islamic State (IS) and the ‘Ghazi Force Lal Masjid’ wing of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) separately claimed responsibility for the attack.  

Fatalities among SFs registered an increase from 77 in 2017 to 79 in 2018.

On the other hand, militant fatalities decreased from 83 in 2017 to 63 in 2018, a decline of 24.09 per cent. This was the lowest number of fatalities among militants recorded since 2011, when fatalities in this category stood at 47.

The increase in fatalities among civilians and SFs are clear indicators of a deteriorating security situation. Other parameters of violence reinforce this assessment. For instance, fatalities in suicide attacksincreased almost two-fold, from 109 in 2017 to 208 in 2018, though the number of suicide attacks increased only marginally from eight in 2017 to nine in 2018.

Further, deaths in major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities)increased to 316 in 2018, from 259 in 2017, though there were 33 major incidents in 2018, as against 37 recorded in 2017. Similarly, fatalities in bomb blasts increased from 134 in 2017to 198in 2018, though the Province saw a decrease in the number of bomb blasts, from 38 in 2017 to 29 in 2018.

Overall, there were 691 fatalities in terrorism-linked incidents in Pakistan during 2018, out of which Balochistan alone accounted for 381, i.e. 55.15 per cent of the total. In 2017, Balochistan (343 fatalities) had accounted forjust 27.22 per cent of the much larger total in Pakistan that year (1,260 fatalities).

According to Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), Balochistan remained the most troubled Province,with the highest number of militant attacks (99), highest number of deaths (354) and highest number of injured (570) recorded. Of the total attacks in the country, 61 per cent of the deaths and 59 per cent of the injuries took place in Balochistan, according to PICSS data.

As noted earlier, the North is afflicted by Islamist extremist groups such as Islamic State (IS, also Daesh), TTP and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ); while Baloch nationalist insurgent groups operate in the South. The major Baloch insurgent groups include the Baloch Republican Army (BRA), Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), Balochistan Liberation Tigers (BLT) and United Baloch Army (UBA). The Pakistani state targets the ethnic Baloch insurgent groups with great ferocity, engineering extra judicial killings and ‘disappearances’ in the name of ‘fighting terror’. Given the much higher losses they suffer in terrorist violence in the North, it would be expected that their counter-insurgency (CI) and counter-terrorism (CT) responses would be more focused on that region, but it receives little attention.

Of the 4,257 civilian fatalities recorded in Balochistan since 2004 (data till January 4, 2018), at least 1,327 have been attributable to one or another terrorist/insurgent outfit. Of these, 407 civilian killings (237 in the South and 170 in the North) have been claimed by Baloch separatist formations, while Islamist and sectarian extremist formations – primarily Islamic State, LeJ, TTP and Ahrar-ul-Hind (Liberators of India) – claimed responsibility for another 920 civilian killings, 837 in the North (mostly in and around Quetta) and 83 in the South. The remaining 2,930 civilian fatalities – 1,705 in the South and 1,225 in the North – remain ‘unattributed’. A large proportion of the ‘unattributed’ fatalities, particularly in the Southern region, are believed to be the result of enforced ‘disappearances’ carried out by State agencies, or by their proxies, prominently including the Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Aman Balochistan (TNAB, Movement for the Restoration of Peace, Balochistan).There were a total of 69 ‘unattributed’ fatalities(59 in North, 10 in South) in 2018 in addition to 82 in 2017 (46 in North, 36 in South).

Continued extra-judicial killings by the Pakistani security establishment has made Baloch insurgent groups more violent towards non-Baloch people in the Province, which has resulted in a series of attacks that have targeted Punjabi and other non-Baloch settlers in Balochistan. These killings have been orchestrated by Baloch groups including the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) and the Baloch Republican Army (BRA), among others, who have openly voiced anti-Punjabi sentiments.According to partial data compiled by SATP, a total of 209 settlers have been killed in Balochistan since the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti, leader of the Bugti tribe and President of the Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP), on August 26, 2006, (data till January 4, 2019). Bugti was killed in a military operation in the Chalgri area of the Bhamboor Hills in Dera Bugti District. Out of the 209 ‘outsiders’ killed, at least 178 were Punjabis. Eight Punjabis were killed in 2018, while 23 Punjabi settlers were killed in 2017. There were no such fatalities among Punjabis in 2016. The number of Punjabi fatalities in the Province stood at 22 in 2015; 17 in 2014; 29 in 2013; 26 in 2012; 13 in 2011; 21 in 2010; 18 in 2009; and one in 2008. No such fatalities were recorded in 2007 and 2006.

Other than non-Baloch people, those associated with China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects, including Gwadar Port, were also targeted by Baloch nationalists and insurgents, who consider CPEC an instrument of exploitation of local resources and of the marginalization of local populations. Though, Baloch militants had targeted CPEC related projects and their workers on many occasions, previously, in a significant move out of the Province, and in the first attack of its kind, the Baloch separatist groupBLA’s‘Majeed Brigade’ suicide squadcarried out a suicide attack targeting the Chinese Consulate at Block 4 in the Clifton area of Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh, on November 23, 2018. At least six persons, including three civilians, two Policemen, and a private security guard, were killed. Three terrorists involved in the attack were killed by SFs. No Chinese national was hurt. Claiming responsibility for the attack, BLA disclosed that the attackers had been tasked to target the consulate.

Significantly, onAugust 11, 2018, BLA orchestrated the first suicide attack on a bus carrying Chinese engineers going from the Dalbandin Airport to the Saindaik copper and gold mines,both in Chagai District. Six persons – among them three Chinese engineers – had been injured in the attack. The engineers were working on the Saindak Project, a joint venture between Pakistan and China, to extract gold, copper and silver from an area close to the border.Jiand Baloch, a BLA ‘spokesperson’, had then stated, “We targeted this bus which was carrying Chinese engineers. We attacked them because they are extracting gold from our region, we won’t allow it.” In a statement issued on Twitter, the BLA identified the suicide bomber who died in the attack, as Rehan Baloch, the elder son of BLA’s ‘senior commander’ Aslam Baloch.

Insurgents trying to disrupt construction of CPEC projects in Balochistan have killed 66 persons since 2014. Colonel Zafar Iqbal, a spokesperson for the construction company Frontier Works Organisation (FWO), stated on September 8, 2016, “The latest figure has climbed up to 44 deaths and over 100 wounded men on CPEC projects, mainly road construction in Balochistan, which began in 2014.” Since September 7, 2016, according to partial data compiled by SATP, another 22 persons have since been killed in different CPEC-related projects across the Province (till January 4, 2019). While four persons, who were related to CPEC project, were killed in 2017, this number jumped to 11 in 2018, demonstrating increasing Baloch anger against CPEC.

The Baloch separatists’ anger against CPEC in not unjustifiable. The continuous neglect and systematic plan to plunder the natural resources of the mineral rich Province is evident in many instances. On December 10, 2018, for instance, the CPEC Cell, in its briefing to the Balochistan Cabinet, revealed that Balochistan’s share in the USD 62 Billion CPEC project was a miniscule nine percent, about USD 5.6 Billion. It was also disclosed that, out of this committed sum, less than USD one Billion had been spent in over five years, since May 22, 2013, when CPEC was launched. The stunned Cabinet members reportedly described CPEC spending in Balochistan thus far, as “a joke”.Expressing concern over the dismal share of the Province in development projects under CPEC, on December 9, 2018, the Balochistan Government disclosed that only two projects — the Gwadar Port and Hubco Coal Power Plant — had been approved for the Province till that point, since CPEC’s launch on May 22, 2013. The Government, moreover, claimed that even these two projects had no direct benefits for the people of Balochistan.

Meanwhile, the Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Mian Saqib Nisar stated, on December 10, 2018, “the situation of Balochistan is deplorable” despite the Province having huge mineral resources. The CJP emphasised that the people of Balochistan complained that they were being neglected by Islamabad and they did not even have basic rights.

Though the levelof violence in the Province had been relativelylow for some years, a smouldering discontent continues to feed the fires of revolt.

*Tushar Ranjan Mohanty, Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

By Ajit Kumar Singh*

On January 4, 2019, the Security Forces (SFs) killed an ‘area commander’ of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), identified as Chander Singh Bhokta aka Ganju, in an encounter in the Kurkheta forest area under Zori-Hunterganj Police Station limits in the Chatra District of Jharkhand. Ganju, a native of Birlutudag village under the Rajgir Police Station of the District, was operating in the Koleshwari zone along the Jharkhand-Bihar border. SFs recovered one INSAS (Indian Small Arms System) assault rifle from the encounter spot.

No other Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-linked fatality has been recorded in the State in the current year, thus far (data till January 6, 2019).

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 53 fatalities, including 17 civilians, 10 SF personnel and 26 Naxalites (Left Wing Extremists), were recorded in Jharkhand in LWE-linked violence in 2018, as against 56 fatalities, including 29 civilians, two SF personnel and 25 Naxalites, in 2017. This is the lowest number of overall fatalities recorded in the state since the formation of the CPI-Maoist on September 21, 2004. A previous low of 56 was recorded in 2017. Overall fatalities in the State have been declining since 2014, barring 2016.

More importantly, fatalities among civilians in 2018 decreased by 41.37 per cent, as compared to 2017, from 29 to 17. Civilian fatalities through 2018 at 17, have been the lowest number of such fatalities recorded in the State during the course of a year since the formation of the CPI-Maoist. The previous lowest of 18 fatalities was recorded way back in 2006. A peak of 79 fatalities in this category was recorded in 2011.

Further, at least 13 incidents of arson carried out against civilian construction companies were registered in 2018, as against 26 such incidents in 2017.

Indeed, according to a December 17, 2018, report, Jharkhand Director General of Police (DGP), D.K. Pandey claimed that “eighty percent of extremism here has been contained, curbed and finished”. 

There are, however, some persisting threats.

Worryingly, fatalities among SFs witnessed a sharp increase, from two (in one incident) in 2017 to 10 (in three separate incidents) in 2018, a five-fold spurt. In a major incident, on June 26, 2018, seven Jharkhand Jaguars (JJ, an anti-Maoist special operations group) personnel were killed and four were injured in an attack by Maoists in the Chinjo area under Bargarh Police Station limits of Garhwa District. Deputy Inspector General (DIG) of Police Vipul Shukla disclosed that a joint team of SFs from the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), Jharkhand Jaguars, and the local Police were marching towards a rebel hideout after receiving information about the presence of some Maoists in the area. The Maoists triggered a landmine blast and simultaneously opened fire on the SF personnel, killing seven. The last major incident (three or more killings) targeting SFs in the State occurred on January 27, 2016, when seven Policemen were killed and eight were injured in a landmine blast by the CPI-Maoist in the Chattarpur Block in Palamu District. The SF personnel were going towards the Kalapahari area in a convoy when their vehicle came under attack.

SFs killed 25 Naxalites in 2018: 13 CPI-Maoist cadres, five Tritiya Prastuti Committee (TPC) cadres, four of the Peoples’ Liberation Front of India (PLFI), and three of the Jharkhand Jan Mukti Parishad (JJMP). One JJMP cadre was lynched by villagers. On November 29, 2018, Anil Singh, belonging to JJMP and a close relative of JJMP ‘chief’ Pappu Lohra, was lynched for allegedly attempting to rape a woman in Irmu village in Palamu District. Interestingly, no incident of internecine clashes was reported in 2018. In 2017, SFs had eliminated 14 Naxalites: nine PLFI cadres, four CPI-Maoist cadres, and one TPC cadre. Another 11 Naxalites were killed in internecine clashes: 10 TPC cadres and one CPI-Maoist cadre. However, in both these years, the kill ratio favoured the SFs – 1:2.5 in 2018 and 1:7 in 2017. The overall kill ratio between September 21, 2004 and January 6, 2019 also favoured the SFs, at 1:1.7.

Meanwhile, at least 185 LWEs were arrested in 2018 in addition to 222 such arrests in 2017. At least 233 Maoists were arrested in 2016 and 157 in 2015. Mounting SF pressure also resulted in the surrender of 22 Maoists in 2018, in addition to 42 such surrenders in 2017. There were 35 surrenders in 2016 and 12 in 2015.

The number of Districts from where killings were reported increased in 2018, as compared to 2017. Out of a total of 24 Districts in Jharkhand, fatalities were reported from 13 in 2018: Latehar (11); Palamu (nine); Garwah (seven); Hazaribagh (five); Ranchi and Seraikela-Kharsawan (four each); Giridih and Khunti (three each); Simdega and West Singhbhum (two each), and Chatra, East Singhbhum and Gumla (one each). 12 Districts recorded such fatalities in 2017 – Khunti (nine); Hazaribagh and Palamu (seven each); Chatra and Giridih (six each); Gumla and Simdega (five each); West Singhbhum (four); Latehar (three); Bokaro (two); and East Singhbhum and Ramgarh (one each).

Significantly, on April 16, 2018, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) disclosed that there were it categorised at least 30 Districts as ‘worst Maoist-affected’, across seven States. The maximum of 13 of these Districts fell in Jharkhand: Bokaro, Chatra, Garhwa, Giridih, Gumla, Hazaribagh, Khunti, Latehar, Lohardaga, Palamu, Ranchi, Simdega West, and West Singhbhum. On April 16, 2018, MHA had also disclosed that the number of Maoist-affected Districts covered under the Security Related Expenditure Scheme (SRE) scheme had decreased from 126 in 10 states to 90 in 11 states. 19 of these 90 districts were in Jharkhand. In addition to the 13 worst-affected districts mentioned above, the other six Districts included Dhanbad, Dumka, East Singhbhum, Koderma, Ramgarh, and Saraikela-Kharaswan.

According to SATP data for 2018, based on assessments of underground and over-ground activities of the Naxalites, Hazaribagh, Latehar, Palamu, and Ranchi Districts remained highly-affected; Chatra, East Singhbhum, Garwah, Giridih, Gumla, Khunti, Seraikela-Kharsawan, and West Singhbhum were moderately affected; while Bokaro, Dhanbad, Dumka, Lohardaga, Pakur and Ramgarh, remained marginally affected.

According to a December 17, 2018, media report, State DGP D.K. Pandey also disclosed that some Maoists were making all-out efforts to sneak into Jharkhand from the Bihar and Odisha sides of the State’s borders. Citing an incident of arson which took place in Chatra District in December 2018 (date not mentioned), where four vehicles of the National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) were put on fire by the Maoists, the DGP asserted that this incident had been orchestrated by a group led by the Bihar-based Maoist Karu Yadav. Top Maoists leaders, the DGP added, had pushed Yadav to create a disturbance in Jharkhand. However, he asserted, the “days are not far off when they will be neutralised completely”.  

Meanwhile, apart from measures taken earlier, the State Government has launched several initiatives through 2018. According to a December 5, 2018, report, Jharkhand had identified another 20 top CPI-Maoist cadres. According to an unnamed Police source involved in anti-Naxal operations, “The names of the 20 Maoists have been sent to the State Home Department for approval, after which they will be made public.” The names included one of Prayag Manjhi, who had a reward of INR 10 million on his head. Manjhi is a CPI-Maoist ‘central committee’ (CC) member. The Police also initiated processes to seize the properties of these 20 Maoist leaders. Earlier, the State Government had approved a list of 210 Maoists. The State Government announces reward amounts to get information about the Maoists, leading to their arrest.

On June 15, 2018, the Jharkhand Police launched a ‘pamphlet war’ against the CPI-Maoist, under which 16,000 posters were put up in the five worst Naxal affected Districts identified as Garhwa, Palamu, Latehar, Lohardaga, and Gumla. The posters had information about 12 most wanted Maoists and the bounties on their heads, with an assurance that the name and identity of informants would be kept secret. The drive was launched under psychological operations to mount all-round pressure on the Maoists. Police dropped the 16,000 pamphlets in a day from helicopters in the interiors of the five target Districts. The cadres mentioned in the pamphlets were CPI-Maoist ‘politburo member’ Sudhakaran of Telangana, carrying an award of INR 10 million on his head; his wife Nilima (INR  2.5 million); Bhwani aka Sujata (INR 1 million) of Andhra Pradesh; Ravindra Ganjhu (INR 1 million) of Latehar; Birsai aka Saketh Singh aka Umesh Ganjhu (INR 1 million) of Latehar; Balram (INR 1 million) of Latehar; Buddheshwar Oraon (INR 1.5 million) of Latehar; Chandrabhushan Yadav (INR 1 million) of Latehar; Chhotu Singh Kherwar (INR 1.5 million) of Latehar; Mrityunjay Bhuiyan (INR 1 million) of Chatra; Sarvjit Yadav (INR 1.5 million) of Chatra; and Umesh Yadav (INR 2.5 million) from Jehanabad in Bihar. None of them have been arrested thus far.

Meanwhile, according to the latest data provided by the Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D), the State had a police-population ratio (policemen per hundred thousand population), as on January 1, 2017, of 174.96, significantly lower than the sanctioned strength of 229.19, though much higher than the national average of 150.75. The ratio was 167.92 per 100,000 on January 1, 2016. On January 1, 2005, the police-population ratio of the State was 160.5, again, much higher than the national average of 140.4.

The LWE menace in Jharkhand is increasingly being brought under control, and there is visible improvement in the ground situation. Nevertheless, several challenges remain to be addressed, and both the State and Central Governments will need to shore up their efforts to bring the remaining affected areas to normalcy.

*Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

The benefits of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank have outweighed the costs and they are working well with their older counterparts to promote Asian development. But more needs to be done.

By Pradumna B Rana*

The new multilateral development banks (MDBs) — the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the New Development Bank (NDB), both established in 2014 — represent a wave of decentralisation in development financing. These new MDBs were once widely considered a threat to existing MDBs, such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). But this concern has proved unwarranted.

Governance of the global development financing system may have improved because of ‘healthy competition’ and functional cooperation between new and old MDBs. This means that the impact of decentralisation and the establishment of new MDBs is neither good nor bad, but rather conditional on how well they can work with existing institutions.

Unhealthy Competition: The Costs

Early on, many had opined that the creation of new MDBs could have significant costs. New institutions would presumably have a different member base, geographical reach and focus compared to existing institutions. This divergence would lead to the decentralisation and fragmentation of global governance — particularly because China is not a member of the OECD’s Development Assistance Committee (DAC), which oversees and coordinates international development assistance.

A patchwork system would emerge and spur ‘unhealthy’ competition, the argument continued, with institutions taking different approaches and developing their own lending modalities and policy solutions. Old and new MDBs would also compete for some of the same clients, raising the incentive to reduce standards to attract clients who would have opportunities for forum shopping and arbitrage.

But signs of ‘unhealthy’ competition between new and old MDBs have not emerged. Instead, competition has been ‘healthy’. The creation of the two new MDBs has been beneficial to the existing development financing architecture in general, and to the World Bank and the ADB in particular.

Healthy Competition and Functional Cooperation: The Benefits

The reasons for this are threefold. First, the new MDBs have helped to partially fill the massive infrastructure financing gaps facing Asian countries. The ADB estimates that developing Asian countries need to invest US$26 trillion from 2016 to 2030 — or US$1.7 trillion per year — if the region is to maintain its growth momentum, eradicate poverty and respond to climate change. Domestic resources and old MDB financing alone would not be enough to meet this need.

The new MDBs have also encouraged the World Bank and the ADB to pay greater attention to infrastructure, triggering a funding race and an infrastructure boom. In 2015, the World Bank announced the launch of the Global Infrastructure Facility and the ADB restructured its balance sheet and enhanced its lending capacity. Following the 2014 Brisbane Summit, the G20 also established the Global Infrastructure Hub in Sydney.

Second, the establishment of the new MDBs led existing MDBs to streamline their operational procedures. The World Bank and, to a lesser extent, the ADB have been accused of bloated bureaucracy and stringent procedures, resulting in inefficiencies. Newer institutions do not suffer from these problems. Their eagerness to secure clients and claim a seat at the development table encourages them to expedite approval of new projects, which has pressured existing banks to become more efficient.

Third, ‘healthy’ competition has benefitted the new banks themselves. The AIIB and the NDB had to hit the ground running. They could not be complacent and assume that developing countries would flock to them out of displeasure with the traditional MDBs. They had to be efficient, compete for business and account for domestic populations’ concerns about the social and environmental impacts of their projects.

Functional complementarity and cooperation between the old and new MDBs is also strong, stemming from memorandums of understanding (MOUs) that the World Bank and the ADB have signed with the AIIB and the NDB. Functional areas of cooperation in the MOUs include knowledge and information sharing; country, sector or firm-specific cooperation; regular consultation and co-financing. So far, most projects financed by the AIIB and the NDB have been co-financed with the World Bank or the ADB.

Net Benefits and Future Actions

‘Healthy’ competition and functional complementarity, therefore, define the relationships between old and new MDBs, to the benefit of developing countries across Asia. Going forward, the new and old MDBs should seek to further enhance these benefits while minimising the costs of ‘unhealthy’ competition or a race to the bottom.

As the global oversight body for international economic institutions, the G20 could help promote healthy competition within a collaborative framework. At the 2011 Seoul Summit, the G20 issued a number of principles for cooperation between the International Monetary Fund and regional financing arrangements. Similar principles would be useful in enhancing cooperation among old and new MDBs.

Efforts must also continue to reform World Bank governance and give greater voice to dynamic emerging markets. Past reform efforts have proceeded at a glacial pace and either need to be accelerated or a new modality needs to be identified. China and China-led institutions should also seek membership of the OECD’s DAC to promote greater transparency in their assistance programmes.

*Pradumna B Rana is Associate Professor and Coordinator of the International Political Economy Programme in the Centre for Multilateralism Studies at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. An earlier version appeared in the East Asia Forum.

By Ken Bredemeier and Chris Hannas

U.S. President Donald Trump says he is addressing the nation Tuesday about the “humanitarian and national security crisis” on the country’s U.S.-Mexican border before traveling there Thursday for a firsthand look at efforts to thwart illegal immigration.

Trump announced the prime-time nationally televised address Monday shortly after news secretary Sarah Sanders said the U.S. leader would “meet with those on the frontlines” of controlling access across the 3,200-kilometer border with Mexico. She said more details of the trip would be announced soon.

Trump’s visit to the border would come in the midst of what is now a 17-day partial government shutdown centering on a dispute over his demand for more than $5 billion in funding to build a barrier to block migrants, most of them from Central American countries, from crossing into the United States.

Opposition Democrats have blocked funding for the wall, but offered $1.3 billion in new spending for border security.

There was no end in sight Monday for the shutdown that has halted about a quarter of U.S. government operations since December 22nd.

Trump, however, now is saying he would agree to a steel barrier instead of a concrete wall he has long vowed to build.

Trump said again Monday that he could declare a national emergency to build the wall without approval from lawmakers, but added on Twitter, “Let’s get our deal done in Congress!

Trump’s tweet referenced Democratic Congressman Adam Smith, the new chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, citing him as saying there is a provision in the law that allows the president to declare an emergency. Later on CNN, however, Smith said that declaring an emergency would be “horrible policy” and a “terrible idea,” and that the president would be challenged in court if he sought to build the wall without congressional authorization.

​The Trump administration called for approval of $5.7 billion for the wall, along with another $800 million for “urgent humanitarian needs” to take care of migrants arriving at the border trying to enter the United States.

But Democrats opposed to Trump’s demand for the wall said there was no progress in talks over the weekend over how to resolve the border security issue and reopen the government.

Democrats in the House of Representatives plan to starting passing legislation aimed at funding individual agencies that have been shuttered, but the president says he is opposed to a piecemeal approach that does not resolve his demand for a wall. Democrats have offered $1.3 billion in new border security funding, but nothing for a wall.

As a new work week began in the United States, about 380,000 government workers remained furloughed, while another 420,000 were deemed essential and required to work with no idea when they will receive their next paycheck. In past U.S. government shutdowns, the workers were paid retroactively once the funding impasses were resolved and Washington officials expect the same thing will occur again this time.

Trump said Sunday he can “relate” to the workers missing paychecks starting this week, but said he expects the 800,000 workers “that are on the receiving end will make adjustments. They always do. People understand what’s going on.”

He said, “Many of those people that won’t be receiving a paycheck, many of those people agree 100 percent with what I’m doing,” although there has been no survey of government workers’ views on Trump’s wall proposal. Some border security officials said they agree with his demand for a wall.

Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said a priority would be to reopen the Treasury Department and Internal Revenue Service, “an action necessary to make sure working families received their tax refunds on schedule.”

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell rejected a previous House package that would have funded most of the agencies through the end of September and the Department of Homeland Security for a month to allow for further border security negotiations. McConnell called the plan a “non-starter,” saying it was a waste of time for the Senate to vote on any shutdown-related legislation that Trump opposes.

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer called on McConnell to bring the new set of bills reopening individual agencies to a Senate vote once they pass the House.

“They are essentially the same funding bills that the Republican Senate wrote and approved by a 92-6 margin during the last Congress,” Hoyer said in a statement Sunday.

Trump contends the wall is needed to stop migrants from illegally crossing into the U.S. from Mexico, as well as preventing drug trafficking and terrorism.

Democrats say the wall is immoral and would be an ineffective and expensive effort.

Trump said Sunday that if Democrats are willing to make a deal, one could be reached “in 20 minutes if they want to.”

Otherwise, Trump said, the shutdown is “going to go on for a long time.”