By MINA

Pope Francis on Sunday prayed for the start of a “constructive dialogue” in Ukraine, releasing two white doves to symbolize the hope for peace. However, the doves were immediately attacked by a crow and a seagull.

Addressing tens of thousands of people gathered in Vatican City’s St. Peter’s Square for the Pope’s weekly Angelus prayer, the pontiff said that his thoughts and prayers were with the victims of the Ukrainian unrest.

“I am close to Ukraine in prayer, in particular to those who have lost their lives in recent days and to their families,” Pope Francis said.

He then raised hopes for a “constructive dialogue between the institutions and civil society,” urging both sides to avoid violence and reminding that “the spirit of peace and a search for the common good” should be “in the hearts of all.”

In a symbolic peace gesture, two white doves were then released by children standing alongside Pope Francis.

The crowd gasped as one dove broke free from its seagull attacker, losing some feathers in the process. The other was less fortunate and was repeatedly pecked at by the crow before flying away.

The article Bad Omen? Pope’s Doves Of Peace For Ukraine Attacked By Crows appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By IESE Insight

“On an average day, we spend 2.1 hours on distraction,” Robin Sharma, best-selling author and coach, told an audience of Fast Forward participants at IESE’s Barcelona campus. “We’re distracted by technology every 11 minutes, and it takes us 25 minutes to refocus our minds on the deep, creative work we were doing before we were distracted.”

Compulsively checking Twitter feeds and e-mails is just one of the multitude of distractions that can keep us from becoming an asset to our coworkers and organizations.

Focus, as Daniel Goleman explains in his latest book on the subject, is not only a scarce resource among leaders today, it is also The Hidden Driver of Excellence, as the title of his book proclaims.

IESE professors Alberto Ribera, Anindya Ghosh and Pablo Maella would agree. Recent work by these professors sheds light on what leaders and organizations can do to recover focus as a means of nurturing the creativity, productivity and innovation that strengthen performance and more often lead to success.

Honing the Self

Focus is essentially a discipline. Exercising it requires starting with the basics: a focus on the self.

For leaders charged with managing departments, divisions or entire organizations, honing in on the self may seem counterintuitive.

However, as Pablo Maella insists, “the importance of exercising clarity and focus in self-management cannot be overstated, for it is a key pillar of personal and organizational productivity.”

Identifying and managing your own personal resources is an important aspect of self-management. One of these resources is time.

As Robin Sharma explains, “Science says we are at our energetic best first thing in the morning, and that’s when we have most of our focus. So, for the first 90 minutes of your work day, do only important work. Use your best hours to do your best work.”

Perhaps the most important resource at the heart of self-management is to know yourself. Alberto Ribera says, “We all come into this life equipped with an array of strengths and personal resources, though we may not even be aware of most of them.”

Through his research and experience working with managers around the globe, Ribera offers insights and tools to help individuals with the process of discovering what their strengths are, and attaining the self-realization known as “flow” — the state of concentrated or complete absorption with the activity at hand.

Aligning attention, time and habits with one’s vision of the self is the ultimate aim, for “it is the direction of our attention and its intensity that will determine what we accomplish, and how well,” Ribera explains.

With coaching a crucial component of Executive Education programs at IESE, Ribera oversees a group of talented career coaches who support participants in their journey toward greater focus in self-management, in order to increase their effectiveness as leaders.

The Ripple Effect

The focus achieved through the practice of self-management spreads out from individuals to benefit the organization as a whole. As such, it is important for companies not only to recruit individuals who understand their strengths and priorities, but also to create flow-friendly environments, which maximize employees’ ability to reach and contribute their potential.

Former Patagonia CEO Michael Crooke, for example, has acknowledged the benefits of this ripple effect of flow from individuals to large management teams: “When you get a high-powered team together and you really get into a zone, you’ll synchronize and achieve excellent results.”

Certainly, such environments become fertile ground for creativity and innovation.

Yet channeling the creative talents of individuals too generally toward innovation can risk missing the mark, cautions Anindya Ghosh.

Strengthening focus on an organizational level, especially when it comes to innovative efforts, reaps important benefits, he explains in a research paper published in Organization Science.

Ghosh gives the example of the innovative ambition that earned Kodak’s Advanced Photo System an Innovative Digital Product Award in 2002. The ambition without the right focus, however, couldn’t help the company survive past the next decade.

Together with his coauthors, Ghosh explored the factors that produce high-impact inventions — those that allow companies to shape the evolutionary trajectories of their product market or to create new ones entirely.

Inventive focus emerged as a key ingredient, along with a company’s prior experience of bundling disparate strands of technology in corporate R&D. “The highest impact rewards those firms that master the art of combining ambition with focus in the leveraging of experience,” he says.

Focus on the Right Things

Although it may be elusive in our hyperconnected, fast-paced world of distraction, focus is an asset worthy of every leader’s and every organization’s attention.

With self-management one of the prime building blocks of strong leaders and, consequently, successful organizations, executives who are able to step out of the immediate demands inherent in managing others to master the art of focus will tend to be a much greater asset to their companies and colleagues.

By developing a better ability to understand and mindfully manage their own strengths and priorities, leaders can then turn their attention to the larger challenges of their organization and the world around them.

As Unilever CEO Paul Polman told a Continuous Education session organized by the IESE Alumni Association, companies can achieve a lot more if they focus on the right things. This means not putting the sole focus on the shareholder.

“If we keep focused on what we do best, then the shareholder will be rewarded. So the shareholder is an outcome.”

“Companies should focus on what they are supposed to do in the first place — which is to serve society, to focus on consumers — and do that well, do that responsibly. That is what I call intelligent growth.”

Related:

“The Secrets of Highly Efficient People”

“The Science Behind Flow at Work”

The article In Pursuit Of Focus: Fostering An Elusive Leadership Trait – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Eurasia Review

(CORDIS) — Cervical cancer screening has helped to dramatically reduce the number of cases of – and mortality from – this disease. Now a study from the Karolinska Institutet suggests that testing for the human papilloma virus (HPV) could allow for a longer time between these screening tests, when compared to cell-based testing.

The Swedish study – a long-term follow-up of a national randomised controlled trial, entitled Swedescreen – found that the protection of HPV-based screening after five years was about the same as for cytology (or cell)-based screening after three years. “This indicates that five-year screening intervals could be used with HPV-based screening, instead of the current three-year intervals,” says Miriam Elfström from the institute’s Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, and the first author of the study.

HPV is a virus capable of infecting humans, typically through sexual contact. Most HPV infections cause no physical symptoms, though in a few cases, HPV can lead to certain cancers, such as cervical cancer. In fact, HPV infection appears to be a necessary factor – in over 90 per cent of cases in fact – in the development of cervical cancer.

Nonetheless, cervical screening programmes have often relied solely on cytology to identify women at risk from developing cervical cancer. While HPV testing has a higher sensitivity for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) – the potentially pre-malignant transformation of certain cells on the surface of the cervix – it has, until now, been unclear whether HPV-based screening leads to over-diagnosis of lesions that will not progress to cancer.

So after 13 years, the Karolinska Institutet wanted to assess the impact of HPV testing. Swedescreen, which began in 1997, enrolled more than 12 000 women aged between 32 and 38 from across all of Sweden. The women were randomised to either double testing with both HPV testing and cytology, or only received a cytology test.

The researchers also investigated the duration of the protective effect of the two screening methods, by comparing the incidence of pre-cancerous lesions in women who had negative test results in the screening over time.

The study was supported by the EU-funded PREHDICT project, which received nearly EUR 3 million in funding and was completed in April 2013. It has also received support from COHEAHR, another EU-funded project that got underway in November 2013 and is due for completion in 2018. COHEAHR aims to enable policy makers to make informed decisions on HPV prevention strategies.

The Karolinska Institutet study of the Swedescreen trial was published in the British Medical Journal (BMJ).

The article Assessing Long Term Impact Of HPV Screening On Cervical Cancer Detection appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Arab News

By Hassan Barari

That the Geneva 2 conference will not lead to a peaceful transitional government is a foregone conclusion. It seems that the conflicting parties are not yet ready for a compromise. Explicit in the opening speech of the Syrian delegation at Montreux in Switzerland is that Assad is still defiant. It does not seem that Assad will settle for an agreement that will pave the way for his ouster.

Let me say upfront that the Syrian delegation is not empowered to negotiate the removal of Assad. For this reason, Syria’s Foreign Minister Walid Muallem is most likely to negotiate in bad faith. He threatened to quit the talks unless serious talks begin. It is interesting to delve into his definition of serious talks. Muallem made it perfectly clear that the conference is about forming a common front against terrorism rather than setting up a transitional government with full executive powers.

Not surprisingly, Muallem seeks to redefine the crisis in Syria. To him, it was never a Syrian revolution as much as a bunch of terrorists supported by some foreign powers. He even flirted with the Americans reminding them of 9/11 and suggested to join forces to work with the Syrian regime. Undoubtedly, Assad regime is ready to offer the Americans more concessions — as the case with the chemical weapon saga — to get off the hook.

Fully backed by Tehran, Assad regime will hardly budge unless it feels that the developments on the ground change. Until then, Assad does not feel that there is a huge price tag of his defiance particularly when Russia is still pinning hope on him to win the conflict militarily. Assad works in tandem with Iran. Just a few days ago, Iranian President Hassan Rowhani said at Davos Forum that there was no military solution to the conflict. But this is a dishonest statement as Iran and Assad strongly feel that the conflict could be won on the ground. The reason for this statement is to mislead the world and buy time while acting relentlessly to finish off the Syrian revolution.

While the Syrian delegation views the conference as a zero-sum struggle, the Syrian opposition views it differently. Indeed, the western-backed Syrian Opposition Coalition insisted that they participated in the conference to implement the 2012 Geneva I agreement. Ahmed Al-Jarba, the SOC president, challenged if there was a Syrian delegation rather than Assad’s delegation that is ready to save Syria.

Contrary to Muallem, who accused almost everyone in the conference of “plotting” against Syria thus isolating himself, Ahmed Al-Jarba felt he won the first round. In his words, “The Syrian revolution has achieved recognition internationally.

The world has seen a people who were refused their rights for 40 years by a criminal and his family. When the people opposed him, chemical weapons were used against them. Bullets are their only answer to the voice of freedom. This regime is dead.”

Barring any surprise or last-minute behind-the-scene- agreement between Russia and the United States, the conference is doomed. Put differently, it may never convene again!

The regional implication of the failure of the conference could not be more obvious. Assad will go to the end to win. It should surprise no one if he opens channels with Israel to help him win over Washington.

There is a need for a media campaign in the West to highlight the atrocities committed by the Iranian troops.
Key regional players like Saudi Arabia insist that it is the Syrian regime’s atrocities and the practical and military intervention of Hezbollah and Iran that led to the radicalization of a segment of the rebels.

The truth is that Iran and the Syrian regime are complicit with the radicals in order to paint the revolution with negative pictures.

They believe this would change the perception of the West and therefore Assad would become a partner in fighting terrorists. Put differently, Assad and Iran will work hard to have Washington subcontract Assad to fight terrorists. I believe as of this moment the battle will be over narrative as well.

Email: hbarari@gmail.com

The article Geneva II: Yet Another Dead End – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Press TV

By Finian Cunningham

It’s a moot question why the Syrian government is even meeting members of the so-called opposition Syrian National Coalition?

Both parties met for the first time in a Geneva negotiating room at the weekend. It was the first such meeting in nearly three years of conflict in the Arab country, which has caused some 130,000 deaths and a third of the population to be displaced.

But neither the Syrian government delegation, led by deputy foreign minister Faisal Meqdad, nor the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) actually spoke to each other directly.

The bizarre meeting – continuing over the weekend – was chaired by United Nations/Arab League peace envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi. The Algerian diplomat reportedly conveyed statements between the opposing sides as they sat around the negotiating table.

The question is: why would the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad afford official recognition to the SNC – thus giving the latter an international status and, in effect, legitimizing the politics of the SNC? It doesn’t seem to make sense.

Faisal Meqdad put his finger on the issue going into the Geneva meeting when he…referred to the opposition party as the “US delegation”.

For that is exactly what the SNC is: a manufactured political front created and sponsored by Washington and its NATO and regional allies.

The SNC is in Geneva not to negotiate for peace, but rather to do the political bidding of Washington for the agenda of regime change in Syria – an agenda it must be reiterated which is wholly illegal.

To refer to this grouplet as Syria’s “opposition” is an oxymoron. It has no political base within Syria, and its self-imposed exiled members, such as titular leader (and Saudi asset) Ahmad Jarba, are accustomed to holding conferences in luxury hotels paid for by Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Their supposed political headquarters are in NATO member Turkey’s Istanbul. But in reality, the HQ is in Washington.

The only “mandate” that the SNC has is political instructions ordered from Washington. This was made clear days leading up to the Geneva gathering when US secretary of state John Kerry pulled rank on the dithering SNC and warned that if it did not attend the conference its money supply would be cut off.

Kerry’s admonition was an astonishing admission of the fake nature of the SNC and what its real purpose is–to negotiate for Washington’s regime-change objective in Syria.

The political means of regime change in Syria have only belatedly become an American priority since the covert state-sponsored terrorist operation, fomented by the US and its proxies, has failed and descended into a sickening orgy of nihilistic gangsterism and feuding between the various foreign-backed mercenary brigades.

However, the SNC’s political standing is such a non-entity that even the myriad militants fighting in Syria have dismissed it as an irrelevance….

In looking at this weekend’s event in Geneva, it is so transparent that Ahmad Jarba and his fellow flunkies are nothing more than…boys who give a Syrian face and accent to Washington’s strategic demands off the Syrian government.

Without the political front of the SNC – indulged in of course by all the Western corporate media – then Washington and its British, French and other allies would be seen for what they are really doing in
Syria.

They are destroying a sovereign country with a covert criminal war. The US and its proxies stand guilty of the supreme crime of perpetrating a war of aggression on Syria – and all the while blaming the Assad government for the deaths and destruction.

It is an astounding Orwellian inversion of reality that acquires a veneer of credibility only because of the SNC and mass media propaganda churned out by the likes of the BBC, CNN, the New York Times and the British Guardian.

The latter’s latest story of “industrial-scale killing” by the Syrian government forces, published last week ahead of the Geneva conference, was a classic smear job, according to respected international war crimes lawyer Christopher Black, who pointed out the ridiculous tale that one alleged ex-Syrian police officer took over 50,000 photographs of more than 11,000 dead corpses before sending them to the Guardian and CNN.

The so-called Syrian National Coalition is also a vital component of the Western charade over Syria. It sanitizes the blood-soaked hands of Washington, Britain, France, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Israel by creating the illusion of a “Syrian opposition” when in reality it is a ventriloquist doll handled by war-criminal Western governments.

It is therefore disquieting perhaps that the Syrian authorities should dignify this Western-imposed travesty with the encounter in Geneva.

It seems hard to see what political gain can be achieved from entertaining this Washington-led front.

Probably, the only gain is that the Syrian government’s forbearance of these charlatans tends to dispel the Western media myth of “despotic regime”.

If the Western propaganda narrative on Syria had any substance, then the “Assad regime” would not be amenable to negotiations on finding a political transition from violence.

Attending Geneva is thus an important opportunity for the Syrian government to demonstrate to the world its sovereignty and who are the real perpetrators of conflict in that country. And the Western media are shown for what they are – propaganda peddlers.

Talking to the SNC or at least being in the same room is in itself futile. But the Syrian government’s willingness has a wider political gain.

It must not, however, give one inch to the Washington-scripted demands of the SNC for regime change. That would only be pandering to state terrorism and criminality.

The article So-Called Opposition SNC Has No Entity In Syria Talks – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By VOA

By Michael Bowman

A U.S. lawmaker says the safety of Americans attending the Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia cannot be guaranteed. Republican Congressman Peter King, a member of the House Intelligence Committee, spoke on U.S. television Sunday.

King says he hopes for the best at next month’s Olympics, but security is a concern.

“The fact is that these are going to be very much threatened Olympics, probably more than any we have had in our past,” the congressman said on ABC’s This Week program. ” I mean, everything [possible] is being done by the United States, but the fact is, this is a dangerous region in Russia, by the North Caucuses. There are active terrorist organizations there.”

Russian security forces are reportedly searching for several suspected terrorists who may be plotting attacks during Olympic events. Last week, U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said preparations have been made in case it is necessary to extract an estimated 10,000 Americans expected to attend the Winter Games, prompting this comment from Congressman King.

“I think that is an indicator of how seriously our government takes this – the fact that there are real threats there. Even though [Russian President Vladimir] Putin talks about the ‘ring of steel’ [security cordon] around the Olympic venue, the fact is, once you get outside that venue or even go from venue to venue, there is real vulnerability,” King said.

Hagel said Russia has not requested U.S. assistance to safeguard the games. King criticized Russian officials for allegedly being secretive about any intelligence they possess about security threats. President Putin has pledged to do whatever is necessary to ensure the safety of athletes and spectators alike.

The article US Lawmaker Claims Safety At Sochi Olympics Not Guaranteed appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Giorgio Cafiero

Honduras’ new president, Juan Orlando Hernández, takes office amid rising tensions between developers on one side and indigenous and campesino communities on the other.

By Sam Badger and Giorgio Cafiero

Honduras’ new president, Juan Orlando Hernández, takes office on January 27. However, given ongoing questions about his victory in November’s election, the legitimacy of Hernández’s presidency remains in doubt. On this shaky democratic mandate, Hernández will likely continue to militarize Honduran society while implementing more of the neoliberal economic measures that have increased income inequality in the country since the 2009 coup d’état, which deposed the populist president Manuel Zelaya.

These developments bode poorly for the consolidation of democracy in Honduras, where the military has committed human rights violations with impunity throughout the post-coup era. Continued repression in this increasingly polarized country will dim hopes for regional stability and democratization in post-coup Honduras.

A Return to Democracy?

In anticipation of November’s election, many Hondurans held high hopes about a return to democracy four years after the military ousted the democratically elected Zelaya and installed a right-wing caretaker government. Zelaya’s supporters largely boycotted the 2009 election that followed the coup, pushing turnout below 51 percent and casting a pall on the vote, which was overseen by the coup authorities and protested by the region’s left-leaning governments. While the Honduran constitution barred Zelaya from running in the 2013 presidential election, his loyalists decided to participate and supported his wife, Xiomara Castro.

As the presidential candidate of the Libre Party, which was created by anti-coup activists in the aftermath of Zelaya’s ouster, Castro offered a vision for Honduras that greatly contrasted with Hernández’s. Although in agreement with Hernández that Honduras’ dire homicide crisis needed to be addressed, Castro opposed Hernández’s calls for deploying more soldiers on the streets, instead calling on the military to secure the country’s international borders from drug traffickers. While speaking of a “new Honduras,” Castro emphasized support for her husband’s progressive policies. Her campaign received widespread support from many elements of Honduran civil society, including prominent artists and writers, low-income Hondurans, and indigenous communities.

After polls closed, the electoral authority — run by Hernández’s right-wing National Party —announced that Hernández had won 36.8 percent of the vote, defeating Castro by a margin of 8 points. The European Union (EU) and the Organization of American States (OAS) quickly declared that Honduras’ election was free, fair, and transparent, yet such claims are bitterly disputed by many Hondurans. Other outside observers have since lodged complaints of vote buying, voter intimidation, ballot box stuffing, and violence against opposition candidates and supporters.

The Libre Party released its own vote count several days after the election and documented an over-count of 82,301 votes for Hernández and an under-count of 55,720 for Castro. These figures alone constitute 4.6 percent of the national vote, equivalent to more than 50 percent of the National Party’s lead in the government’s tally. Leo Gabriel, an Austrian delegate from the EU’s observer mission, told Brazilian media that he witnessed considerable irregularities in the election, noting that living voters showed up as deceased and dead people’s votes were counted. Gabriel also asserted that votes were bought and sold and that one-fifth of the original tally sheets were sent to an illegal server. Moreover, the murder of three Libre Party activists during the weekend of the election underscored the environment of fear and intimidation in which the election was held.

Triumph of the Oligarchs

It’s difficult to hold an election that is entirely transparent in any developing country. But if the large pro-Castro demonstrations that followed the election are any indication of public sentiment, it is doubtful that many Hondurans will accept Hernández as a democratically legitimate leader.

Festering social and economic conflicts exacerbated by Zelaya’s ouster will make matters worse for the new administration. Two in particular include the campesinos’ struggle to reclaim land from major agribusinesses and the Lenca tribe’s battle to prevent the construction of a dam in its traditional homeland. Both of these conflicts have sparked crackdowns that have brought death and unrest in recent years.

Carbon markets have driven much of the unrest, with entrenched Western economic interests pushing for investment in “green energy” in Central America. In Honduras, this takes the form of large palm oil plantations owned by the country’s economic oligarchs. The palm oil plantations are located on land once farmed by poor campesinos, but which were transferred to big agribusinesses such as the Dinant Corporation.

Dinant is owned by Miguel Facusse, one of the wealthiest men in Honduras. His company, which pushes peasants off their land and has been accused of hiring hit squads to target resisters, has received investment funds from the World Bank for the production of “green energy,” and is able to count the investment as “sustainable” and “green” for the purpose of selling carbon credits on international markets. The World Bank’s own compliance office investigated the bank’s investment in Dinant and found that the institution had been willingly ignorant of the social problems emerging from within Honduras.

In 2009, a number of campesinos who claimed to have been removed from the land started an organization called the United Peasants Movement, or MUCA. MUCA occupied stretches of Facusse’s land, creating subsistence farms and cooperatives. Since then, violence has been waged between Dinant’s private security forces and the Honduran state on one side, and armed campesinos on the other. Blood has been shed on both sides, with most of the casualties being poor farmers. In response to the violence, the Honduran military has reportedly reinforced the strength of the state security apparatus in the region.

Tensions are also rising in the Rio Blanco region, where the Lenca indigenous tribe has resisted a recent plan to construct hydroelectric dams on the Gulcarque River, situated in its traditional land. The project — set to benefit DESA, a company tied to the oligarchs, and Sinohydro, a Chinese firm — was pushed forward without the Lenca tribe’s consultation or consent. In response, the Lenca began to set up roadblocks and protests. During one rally, government soldiers shot at least two protestors, resulting in one death. Indigenous leaders also claim to have received death threats from the military and police.

Legitimacy Lost

Such clashes reinforce the widely held view that the 2009 coup — along with events since — was orchestrated by Honduran oligarchs. (Wikileaks cables have suggested that Facusse may have been personally involved, although he denies any role.)

It remains doubtful that peace can be reached when indigenous communities and campesinos view the government as a representative of the private interests arrayed against them and their livelihoods — a perception no doubt exacerbated by the murky circumstances of Hernandez’s recent victory. Long-term questions regarding the stability of Honduras and the government’s ability to administer an inclusive republic must be raised alongside questions about its legitimacy and desire to peacefully resolve internal conflicts.

Even if the November election was legitimate — and there is ample reason to doubt that it was — the continued marginalization of indigenous communities will bode poorly for democratic consolidation in post-coup Honduras.

Sam Badger is an associate lecturer of philosophy and graduate student at San Francisco State University. Giorgio Cafiero is a Washington, D.C.-based foreign affairs analyst and a regular contributor to the Huffington Post.

This article appeared at FPIF and is reprinted with permission

The article Clouds Over Honduras – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By OilPrice.com

By Nick Cunningham

There are two major factors that have emerged in the last five years that have sparked a surge in LNG investments. First is the shale gas “revolution” in the United States, which allowed the U.S. to vault to the top spot in the world for natural gas production. This caused prices to crater to below $2 per million Btu (MMBTu) in 2012, down from their 2008 highs above $10/MMBtu. Natural gas became significantly cheaper in the U.S. than nearly everywhere else in the world.

The second major event that opened the floodgates for investment in new LNG capacity is the Fukushima nuclear crisis in Japan. Already the largest importer of LNG in the world before the triple meltdown in March 2011, Japan had to ratchet up LNG imports to make up for the power shortfall when it shut nearly all of its 49 gigawatts of nuclear capacity. In 2012, Japan accounted for 37% of total global LNG demand.

The combined effect of shale gas production in the U.S. and skyrocketing LNG demand from Japan opened up a wide gulf between the Henry Hub benchmark price in the U.S. and much higher oil-linked prices around the world. LNG markets, which are not liquid, could not meet the surge in Japanese demand. Platts’ Japan/Korea Marker (JKM) price for spot LNG floated between $4-$10/MMBTu the year and half before Fukushima. In the few months after the meltdown, the JKM price quickly jumped to $18/MMBTu. Almost three years later, the JKM price for month-ahead delivery in January 2014 hit $18.95/MMBTu.

In contrast, Henry Hub prices – despite reaching a more than two year high – were only $4.50/MMBTu for the first week of 2014. After factoring in the costs of liquefaction and transportation – somewhere in the range of $4-$5/MMBTu – companies could still make a substantial profit taking U.S. gas and exporting it to Asia.

Thus ensued a scramble to permit and build LNG export facilities in the U.S., often by retooling and turning around what were once import terminals. As of December 6, 2013, the U.S. Department of Energy had 28 applications for LNG export facilities to countries without which the U.S. has a free-trade agreement (five of them have been approved).

Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG) has been the primary beneficiary of DOE’s policy to incrementally approve LNG exports. Cheniere has already signed contracts to deliver gas to Britain’s BG Group, France’s Total, India’s Gail, Spain’s Gas Natural Fenosa, and South Korea’s Kogas. Its stock price has soared since it received permission to begin construction on its Sabine Pass liquefaction facility on the U.S. Gulf Coast, which would allow the export of 18 million tonnes of LNG per annum (MTPA) in Phase 1. From August 6, 2012 – the day before it received its permit – until the market close of January 10, 2014, Cheniere’s stock price climbed from $14.66 to $46.37 per share, more than a three-fold increase.

Other companies are lobbying the government to quickly approve more export terminals, but it is more than likely that only the first-movers will make some serious money with the stragglers left behind. While its competitors are awaiting permit approvals, construction is already underway at Cheniere’s Sabine Pass liquefaction facility.

LNG Expansions Around the World

Australia plans to triple its LNG capacity over the coming four or five years, which will allow it to surpass Qatar as the largest LNG exporter in the world. There are seven liquefaction facilities under construction in Australia, with a capacity of 62 million tonnes per year. This means that by 2017, according to the International Gas Union (IGU), Australia’s LNG export capacity will reach 83 MTPA.

Australia’s projects are further along and closer to their target market of Japan, so many will beat out U.S. proposals. Despite all the buzz in the U.S. about LNG export terminals, and the more than 190 MTPA of applications on backlog with the DOE, very little of that will be actually constructed (it is pretty easy to merely submit an application). The IGU estimates the U.S. will only bring online an additional 8 MTPA or so over the next four to five years, up from about 2 MTPA last year. Australia is where the action is.

Chevron (NYSE: CVX) is heavily invested in Australian LNG and already has several terminals up and running with more capacity coming online in 2015. BG Group (LON: BG) is scheduled to start exports of LNG at its Queensland Curtis facility this year. These companies are well-positioned to serve the insatiable demand from Japan.

Market Disruptor – Japan’s Nuclear Restarts

So conventional wisdom tells us that there is a boat load of cash to make riding the LNG wave. But aside from the historic price volatility for natural gas that should give investors reason for pause, looking over the horizon, there is one big factor that could disrupt LNG investments: if Japan moves to restart some or all of its nuclear reactors, many LNG terminals may cease to be profitable.

Japan was once the third largest producer of nuclear power after the U.S. and France. After the Fukushima meltdown, Japan replaced its 49 GW of nuclear capacity with imported LNG (which jumped 24%) as well as imported coal and oil. Yet Japan may be in the cusp of a return to nuclear. According to DNV GL’s LNG blog, the restart of all of Japan’s 50 nuclear reactors would mean it could displace about 51 million tonnes of imported LNG.

This amounts to about one-fifth of the entire global LNG trade, and would cause a significant drop in the JKM spot price. This means the spread between the landing price of LNG in Asia and the wellhead prices of say, Australia, or the United States, would narrow. Without that arbitrage, it wouldn’t make sense to send liquefied gas around the world from many places. Marginal projects would be forced out virtually overnight.

The Japanese government put in place new safety regulations last summer that utilities must meet in order to receive approval to restart their reactors. Japan’s Nuclear Regulatory Authority (NRA) is currently reviewing applications from seven utilities to restart a total of 16 nuclear reactors, or about one-fourth of Japan’s nuclear fleet. More applications are in the offing.

While anti-nuclear resentment runs strong in Japan these days, the government is facing quite a bit of pressure to return to its nukes. Post-Fukushima, Japan posted a trade deficit for the first time in decades due to the huge cost of importing coal, gas, and oil. By one estimate, turning half its nuclear fleet back online could save $20 billion per year, good enough to wipe out a big chunk of its trade deficit – which widened to $12.6 billion in November 2013. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe supports nuclear power, making a return to nuclear more likely.

If the Japanese public and government can begin to trust the new regulatory regime, and accept a return to nuclear power, its LNG demand will plummet. As the largest LNG importer in the world by far, this would leave many LNG projects stuck at sea.

In particular, LNG terminals in the U.S. – which are not the lowest cost producers – would be in trouble. Not all companies that have applied for permits will actually move forward with investment, and thus, would be less vulnerable to nuclear restarts. But the ones that do move forward are taking on the risk as well as the potential reward. But with LNG projects proliferating around the world, many companies will be competing for a smaller pie should Japan return to nuclear power.

Cheniere Energy is the first that comes to mind. Dominion Resources (NYSE: D) is another. Dominion hopes to move forward with a $3.8 billion retrofit of its Cove Point facility on the Chesapeake Bay, which is also the subject of a growing environmental backlash. Some Australian projects that are further behind may lose out as well, such as the Arrow LNG project, a 50-50 venture between Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) and PetroChina (NYSE: PTR). Woodside Petroleum (WPL) has already scrapped its original plans for the Browse LNG project because of high costs. Its Sunrise project, mired in political disputes, may yet get off the ground, but would be vulnerable to Japanese reactors. Russia has major LNG expansion plans, which would face stiff competition if Japan’s reactors turn back on. Novatek (LON: NVTK) has plans to invest $15-$20 billion in its liquefaction facility on t he Yamal peninsula, and Gazprom hopes to put $13.5 billion into a facility at Vladivostok – although the latter would at least be in a very advantageous location.

The future of LNG may indeed be bright, especially when considering that global energy demand has nowhere to go but up. But, investors should be aware of the very large threat that Japanese nuclear reactors present to upstart LNG projects.

Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Market-Disruptor-Nuclear-Restarts-Spells-Trouble-for-LNG.html

The article Market Disruptor: Nuclear Restarts Spells Trouble For LNG – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Dr. Bibhu Prasad Routray

Surrender of a top leader is not an event an extremist outfit looks forward to in the beginning of a new year. On 13 January, GVK Prasad alias Gudsa Usendi, spokesperson of Dandakaranya Special Zonal Committee of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), surrendered to the Andhra Pradesh police. Usendi was in charge of issuing press statements on behalf of the outfit. He was also responsible for some of the its military successes in Chhattisgarh, having directed and coordinated attacks in which security force personnel were killed. In his surrender statement, Usendi complained of ill health and disillusionment with the outfit’s excessive reliance on violence. Usendi’s surrender was followed by few other surrenders of low and middle ranking cadres in Chhattisgarh.

A couple of days later, the CPI-Maoist issued an audio statement trivializing the impact of Usendi’s surrender. In the recorded statement issued to the press, Dandakaranya Special Zonal Committee secretary Ramanna, called Usendi a ‘traitor’ and a ‘morally flawed’ individual. Ramanna criticised Usendi’s ways with the women cadres and accused him of abandoning his wife and surrendering with another woman cadre, Santoshi Markam. The statement also noted that such surrenders, which is ‘not a new phenomenon for the revolutionary movement’ would have no impact on the revolution that the Maoists are waging.

The statement, at one level, was a natural reaction of the outfit, which has suffered from a series of splits and surrenders, and has also lost a number of senior leaders to arrests and killings in the past years. While deaths and arrests are unavoidable parts of its military campaign, the outfit was most perturbed by the possible impact of the public denouncement of its ideology by its erstwhile lieutenants. By criticising the surrendering cadres and idolising the ones who got killed in encounters with the security forces, the Maoists want to keep their flock together.

Recent history of left-wing extremism in India bears testimony to the damaging impact of neutralisation of key leaders on the outfit’s overall activity. Kishenji’s killing in November 2011 led to the marginalisation of the Maoists in West Bengal. Sabyasachi Panda’s in August 2012 rebellion in Odisha was a serious setback for the outfit’s plan of expansion in that state. The September 2009 arrest of Kobad Ghandy and the July 2010 killing of Cherikuri Rajkumar alias Azad constituted blows to the outfit’s policy making apparatus as well as to its expansion strategy in southern India. Usendi’s sudden departure from the scene would certainly affect the outfit. That the outfit would find a leader to replace him and would eventually overcome his loss is, however, a different debate.

At the other level, the satisfaction expressed in the official circles, post Usendi’s surrender that the CPI-Moist would eventually crumble because of its excessive reliance on violence and disenchantment of its cadres from the party’s ideology, may be misplaced. That Usendi’s surrender and fair treatment accorded to him by the state would lead to a stream of surrenders of top cadres is far fetched. That Maoist violence would die a natural death without any substantial effort from the state is an unreal expectation.

Ground reality in the Maoist conflict theatres is a tale of incessant Maoist violence. While the level of violence orchestrated in 2010, so far the worst year of Maoist violence, resulting in the deaths of 1005 civilians and security forces would possibly remain unmatched, 2013 continued to witness unacceptable level of violence accounting for 394 lives. Although this is a marginal decline over the previous year, in which 415 fatalities were recorded, the extremists continue to be influential in their stronghold areas. In spite of the killing of 99, surrender of 283 and arrest of 1397 Maoist cadres in 2013, the outfit’s level of violence has not shown signs of abatement. States like Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and Odisha remain affected by significant amount of extremist mobilisation as well as violence.

The holding of peaceful assembly elections in Chhattisgarh in November has been projected as an achievement for the state. This was achieved mostly due to the deployment of about 150 companies of central security forces. There was little to suggest that the state is in the process of developing its wherewithal to replicate the Andhra Pradesh success on its soil. Of the 218 encounters between the security forces and the extremists, 92 took place in this state. Bihar’s unique approach towards the problem has merely translated into its diminishing ability to neutralise the Maoists, where as the extremists continue to kill, abduct and snatch weapons. Not a single Maoist was killed in this state in 2013, although 42 civilians and 27 security forces lost their lives in extremist attacks. While Maoist inroads into the northeast remains mostly an exaggerated claim by the Assamgovernment, the CPI-Maoist appears to have made concerted efforts for expansion into the southern states.

In 2013, security forces scored small victories against the Maoists. Small area operations led to recovery of areas under the Maoist stronghold in Jharkhand and Odisha. But the year also witnessed setbacks in the form of the Darbha attack in Chhattisgarh’s Sukma district in May in which 27 people including some senior politicians were killed. Interrogation of Gudsa Usendi revealed details of the planning that went into carrying out the attack. In addition, in Jharkhand, the CPI-Maoist carried out a pre-planned attack killing the Superintendent of Police of Pakur district in July. Moreover, the security forces in Chhattisgarh were also involved in at least two encounters in which civilians rather than extremists were killed, highlighting the persistence of intelligence collection problems.

It is the continuing ability to inflict damages on the state, which would keep the CPI-Maoist relevant in the eyes of its sympathisers. On the other hand, continuous failings of the state to implement a strategy against the extremists will maintain the CPI-Maoist’s position as a potent adversary in 2014.

This article appeared at War & Anti-War

The article 2013 Assessment: Naxalism In India – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Neve Gordon

The state which denies the rights of people in search of both refuge (Africans) and return from refuge (Palestinians), is reproducing itself in the image of those nation-states which historically constituted themselves in a framework of ethnic pureness.

By Nicola Perugini and Neve Gordon

On January 22, protests in solidarity with African asylum seekers were held in front of several Israeli embassies all over the world. By this time most media outlets both in Israel and around the world had lost their interest in their plight, even though the crux of the matter, the twisted logic informing Israeli policies towards the asylum seekers, had not been adequately exposed.

Let us go back to the beginning of the recent events. During the protests which took place at the beginning of 2014, tens of thousands of African asylum seekers, mainly from Eritrea and Sudan, filled Rabin Square in Tel Aviv, sending a clear message to the Israeli government: “Yes to freedom, no to jail”. “We,” they went on to claim, “are refugees, not infiltrators”.

The massive rally was propelled by an amendment to Israel’s Prevention of Infiltration Law, which allows the state to “detain migrants who enter the country illegally for up to a year without trial, and to hold those already in Israel in an open detention facility indefinitely”. The Eritreans and Sudanese occupied public spaces and protested in front of the UNHCR and foreign embassies (the US Embassy was shut down) against Israel’s treatment of asylum seekers, which includes denial of visas, denial of proper asylum procedures, arbitrary detentions and deportations.

The impressive mobilization of asylum seekers—the first in Israel’s history—is the result of these discriminatory state-policies, which have already been condemned by major international human rights NGOs and the UN, as well as a response to a more general incitement against migrants. Suffice it to mention some key-statements made by senior government officials on the “infiltrator issue” (the infamous categorization used by the government to deal with asylum seekers) in order to highlight the pervasive atmosphere of intolerance.

Former Minister of the Interior Eli Yishai exclaimed, for example, that “those who want to work to ensure a Jewish and Zionist state for our children should act. We will make the lives of infiltrators bitter until they leave.”

“These are not refugees,” averred Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu following the January 5 protests, “but people, who are breaking the law and whom we will deal with to the fullest extent of the law”.

This kind of rhetoric has characterized the mainstream Israeli discourse on asylum seekers in recent years. Thus, it was not particularly surprising that in the days following the massive rally in Tel Aviv, thinly veiled racist op-eds appeared in major Israeli newspapers like Yisrael Hayom, Yedioth Aharonot and The Jerusalem Post.

One editorial argued that “Israel, created to be the only state in the world where the Jewish people can exercise self-determination, will never solve the socioeconomic ills of Africa. It does, however, risk losing its strong Jewish majority if it continues to absorb thousands of African migrants”. Another article maintained that: “Since its foundation, Israel has been struggling for its survival against hundreds of millions of its neighbors-enemies and their supporters around the world; it cannot take in tens of thousands – and in the future even hundreds of thousands – of infiltrators. Every sensible person understands that this is not a problem of racism but of existence.”

The Prevention of Infiltration Law, as well as the statements of high-ranking government officials and the editorials, all expose a central feature about Israel, revealing, as it were, something profoundly disturbing about the nature of the state.

At least in the eyes of the member states comprising the United Nations in the late 1940s, Israel was created as a human rights reparation for the crimes of genocide committed against Jews in Europe. Indeed, the state that was established as a homeland for surviving Jewish refugees was constructed as an entity whose raison d’etre was and, as the quotes above show, continues to be the preservation of ethnic purity. The tragic irony is that this kind of purity is not dissimilar to the purity informing the logic of the nation-states that perpetrated the violence of World War II.

In other words, the state which denies the rights of people in search of both refuge (Africans) and return from refuge (Palestinians), is reproducing itself in the image of those nation-states which have constituted themselves in a framework of ethnic pureness. While the experiences of asylum seekers and dispossessed Palestinians are different, and while it would be a grave mistake to compare Israel with perpetrators of genocide, there is still a differing common-ness which unveils how, in Israel, preserving the existence of the state dovetails with racist intolerance.

Nicola Perugini is Assistant Professor and Head of the Human Rights and International Law Program at the Al Quds Bard Honors College (Jerusalem). You can follow him @PeruginiNic

Neve Gordon is the author of Israel’s Occupation and can be reached through his website.

The article Asylum Seekers, Refugees And ‘The Loss Of Israel’ – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By William Donohue

Owing to many false impressions about Catholicism that have been generated by the movie, “Philomena,” I decided to write an extensive review of the film, and the book upon which it is based.

The film and the book maintain that cruel Irish nuns stole Philomena’s baby in 1952 and sold him to “the highest bidder.” In reality, Philomena’s widowed father found the nuns—the only persons willing to accept the teenager’s out-of-wedlock baby—and they subsequently found a home for him in the United States; no fee was charged.

The film and the book also maintain that Philomena went to the United States to find her son, but this is patently untrue: she never set foot in America looking for him.

Copies of my analysis of the controversy surrounding “Philomena” are being sent to the bishops, many in the media (in the United States, England and Ireland), those in the entertainment business, various Irish organizations, and friends of the Catholic League.

To download a copy of it, click here.

The article “Philomena” Smears Catholicism – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By IPCS

By C Uday Bhaskar

Even as India celebrated its Republic Day to reiterate its commitment to the Constitution and the equality of all its citizens irrespective of religion, caste, language and ethnicity – a dangerous trend is emerging in South Asia where the ‘other’ has become the target of murderous politics.

Nowhere is this more evident than in neighboring Bangladesh and Pakistan where the minority community – however described – has become the target of such organised killings and rape. Constitutionally, both Bangladesh and Pakistan are ostensibly committed to the protection of their minorities but the reality is that a whole pattern of politics has become entrenched wherein a corrosive and distorted ideology has determinedly ‘bloodied’ the waters.

India and other South Asian nations including Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bhutan are differently grappling with this malignancy and a review of what is happening in Bangladesh and the extrapolation to the daily violence that is racking Pakistan are instructive.

Almost twenty people were killed on 5 January when Bangladesh went to the polls that were boycotted by the main opposition party – the BNP. Scores more were killed in the run-up to the election, and the more disturbing aspect was the deliberate targeting of the Hindu minority by the BNP and their ideological alliance partner – the Jamaat. The community who are perceived to be staunch supporters of the ruling Awami League (AL), spread across Jessore, Gaibandha, Thakurgaon, Dinajpur, Rangpur, Bogra, Lalmonirhat, Rajshahi and parts of Chittagong were the targets of the BNP-Jamaat violence. As is common in the region, shops were looted and burnt, temples vandalised and idols desecrated, while women were raped and innocents killed.

Liberal opinion in Bangladesh remains anguished but helpless in the face of this organised pogrom tacitly supported by the BNP, and some commentators have compared the 2013-14 blood-bath with the genocide of 1970-71 unleashed by the Pakistani Army supported by the local Jamaat prior to the birth of Bangladesh.
It merits repetition that a large cross-section of Bangladeshi opinion is ranged against such communal violence and condemns the politics and ideology of the BNP-Jamaat. A thoughtful observation by an eminent editor, Syed Badrul Ahsan, merits recall. Ruing the anti-Hindu sentiment that is being stoked, Ahsan writes: “No, communalism has not died in this country. When you yet have Hindu men forced out of their hearths and homes, when there are yet rapacious fanatics waiting to destroy the modesty of Hindu women, when it is Hindu property which is yet the object of covetousness on the part of many Muslims, you cannot say that this is a truly secular Bengali republic. Add to that the indifference of the police and the local administration in coming to the aid of the persecuted Hindus? Do not forget the brazen behaviour of the police in declining to come to the aid of the nation’s Buddhists when their homes and temples were razed to the ground by Muslim bigots in Ramu. Civilized, educated, liberal Muslims have wept in silence at the humiliation of their Hindu and Buddhist neighbours.” (Daily Star, 22 January 2014).

The phrase ‘truly secular Bengali republic’ has a special resonance that warrants scrutiny. The blood-soaked birth of Bangladesh in December 1971 represented the triumph of a specific Bengali Muslim nationalism that was predicated on a distinctive identity. It evolved from a syncretism nurtured in Bengali language and culture wherein the dominant religious identity was not inflexibly prioritised. Led by Sheikh Mujibur Rehman – the father of Bangladesh – the vision that he had for his fledgling nation was one that was very different from what had become of Pakistan even in the early 1970s.

The minority community – in this case, the non-Muslims of Bangladesh, were normatively seen to be part of the diverse demography that all South Asian states are endowed with. Yet this vision was soon abandoned. The tragic assassination of Bangabandhu in August 1975 saw the politics of Bangladesh resurrecting the murderous communal venom of its genesis, going back to the pre-partition madness of 1946-47 and the minority became a target again.

While the Hindu population of then East Bengal was 28 per cent in 1941, this figure steadily declined and to about 14 per cent in 1974, and in 2011, it had further come down to under 9 per cent. The Hindu community in Bangladesh has been forced to flee or convert – and this is the sad reality of one of the most progressive Islamic nations in the world.

To her credit, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has tried valiantly to make the secular principle the guiding element of her nation even while emphasising its Islamic identity – but is fighting a losing battle.

Many Bangladeshi academics, journalists and analysts have drawn attention to the dangerous path that the politics of their country has embarked upon. A bitter zero-sum contestation between the two principal political parties, with one of them – the BNP – adopting a strident anti-Hindu (and hence anti-Hindu) position and supporting an inflexible form of Islam that is similar to the extreme right-wing in Pakistan augurs ill both for Bangladesh and the entire region.

The most recent spike in sectarian violence in Pakistan where the Shia community has become the ‘other’ to be deliberately butchered is a warning sign. Once the Hindus and other minorities are either forced to flee or steadily killed, the political compulsion in Bangladesh will be to find a different ‘other’ category to target. Gender equity will be compromised and the space for the liberal, tolerant dispensation will further shrink.

Religion and politics differently animate South Asia and neither can be pursued to the exclusion of the other. But while the former is personal – it is the collective that shapes the political temper. The entire South Asian region may benefit from pondering over the sage counsel offered by Mahatma Gandhi who asserted, “…I swear by my religion. I will die for it. But it is my personal affair. The state has nothing to do with it. The state would look after your secular welfare, health, communications, foreign relations, currency and so on, but not your or my religion. That is everybody’s personal concern!”

C Uday Bhaskar
Member, Executive Committee, IPCS

An earlier version of this article appeared in Dainik Jagaran in Hindi.

The article Targeting Minorities: Emerging Trend In Bangladesh And Pakistan – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Al Bawaba News

Deputy Prime Minister Ziad Bahaa El-Din submitted a letter of resignation to Prime Minister Hazem El-Beblawi, Monday afternoon.

Bahaa El-Din, who also served as Minister of International Cooperation, said in a letter to El-Beblawi, “I see my role during the next stage being more consistent and effective from political, partisan and legal ranks.”

Bahaa El-Din called on El-Beblawi to accept his resignation from both ministerial positions but El-Beblawi’s cabinet has not yet announced whether it will accept or decline Bahaa El-Din’s resignation.

Bahaa El-Din timed his resignation after El-Beblawi’s return from the Davos World Economic Forum, the third anniversary of the 2011 Revolution and having defined the features of the roadmap.

This resignation comes one day after Interim President Adly Mansour’s announcement on Sunday that presidential elections would take place before a House of Representatives is elected.

It also comes amid strong indications that Defense Minister Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi is close to announcing a presidential bid.

Original article

The article Egypt’s Deputy PM Resigns appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Balkan Insight

Serbian President Tomislav Nikolic is due to call early parliamentary elections after his ruling Progressives decided that fresh polls would bolster their power and accelerate economic reforms.

Serbian Prime Minister Ivica Dacic said that the government will propose on Monday that Nikolic dissolve parliament and call early elections.

“At this point elections are the best possible way to get fresh political legitimacy which will reduce the tensions existing in society,” Dacic of the Socialist party, which is part of the current ruling coalition with Nikolic’s Progressives, said on Sunday.

His statement came after the Progressives earlier on Sunday unanimously accepted party leader Aleksandar Vucic’s call for early parliamentary elections, ending weeks of speculation about a possible March 16 ballot.

“It’s time to settle the account,” Vucic, who is also Deputy Prime Minister, told a party congress.

“We have done a lot of good work and this is one of the key reasons, and we also believe that we can do better and move faster in the future,” Vucic said.

Tensions in the 18-month-old Serbian government have escalated over the pace and depth of economic reforms.

Sasa Radulovic, the country’s Economy Minister and a non-party member of the cabinet who was pushing for measures aimed at liberalising the labour market, resigned on Saturday after resistance from trade unions and lack of support in the government.

But Vesna Pesic, a professor at Belgrade University and former MP, said that the Progressives were an immature party.

She said that the real reason for snap polls was nothing to do with reforms, but all about Vucic’c wish to become the prime minister.

“It’s infantilism, and we cannot expect much from infantilism in politics,” Pesic told Serbian daily paper Danas on Monday.

The Progressives have decided to seek elections at the time when their rankings stand high.

A recent opinion poll conducted by the Centre for Free Elections and Democracy suggested that the Progressives would take first place if the elections were held now.

About 42 per cent of voters said they planned to vote for the Progressives; the second-rated bloc, the Socialist Party of Serbia, in coalition with the Party of United Pensioners and United Serbia, lagged far behind on about 16 per cent.

Serbia’s former ruling Democratic Party could only count on about 11 per cent, according to the opinion poll. About seven per cent would vote for the Liberal Democratic Party, and about six per cent for the nationalist Democratic Party of Serbia, DSS.

If called, the elections will be held on the same day as local polls in Belgrade, on March 16.

The move to call the elections came just days after Serbia started EU accession talks on January 21 and in the middle of the EU-mediated Serbia-Kosovo talks on the normalisation of relations.

The article Serbian Government Plans Snap Parliamentary Polls appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By SETimes

By Paul Ciocoiu

A decade of NATO membership has increased Romania’s security, proved the country as a reliable partner for the Alliance, and brought an increase in foreign investment, analysts and officials said.

“Through NATO and then the strategic partnership with the United States, Romania has never been more secure,” Dan Dungaciu, director of the Romanian Academy’s Institute for International Relations, told SETimes.

“Romania’s NATO accession arguably reinforced NATO’s eastern flanks and consolidated the Alliance’s presence in the Balkans and at the Black Sea,” George Scutaru, member of the Defence Committee of the Romanian Parliament’s lower house, told SETimes.

Romania was invited to join the Alliance at the 2002 NATO summit in Prague, along with six other East European countries from the former Soviet bloc. It became a member state in 2004.

“Romania’s accession was a confirmation of consistency in its foreign policy: re-aligning Romania’s strategic interests back to where they naturally belong, in the Euro-Atlantic family. After 10 years, Romania is a fully integrated and a proud member of the North-Atlantic Alliance,” the Romania’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement to SETimes.

NATO’s accession showed Romania is on the right track in its quest for EU membership and gave Romanians the psychological confirmation they belong to Europe, Dungaciu said.

“At the same time, foreign investments rose after the accession thanks to the increase of the security and predictability level,” Dungaciu said.

The country assumed NATO membership with full responsibility and realised the accession doesn’t bring only rights, but also obligations, officials said. Twenty-three Romanian soldiers have been killed and 121 were wounded during international missions where Romania has participated as a member state of the military bloc.

“Romania successfully participated in NATO’s missions in the Balkans, Iraq and Afghanistan, with a consistent military presence both in terms of number of troops and quality,” Scutaru said. “We have proven not only our sincere desire and enthusiasm over the accession to this political and military alliance, but we have also provided our military expertise.”

Other than the military missions in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Mediterranean Sea and the Balkans, Romania contributed to NATO’s fight against cyber-attacks and terrorism. In 2010, Romania launched a human intelligence centre in Oradea, confirming the professionalism of the Romanian intelligence. In 2007, Romania ensured the air police missions for the Baltic countries.

“During the last decade, Romania contributed substantially, conceptually and operationally to the implementation of NATO’s mandate, transforming itself from a recipient to a security provider not only for its citizens, but for the region and the Alliance as a whole,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said.

Officials said Romania took a significant step in February 2010, when it agreed to host the defensive Aegis Ashore system at the Deveselu Military Base. The move was part of the US project of the European Phased Adaptive Approach to be integrated in the NATO anti-missile defensive system. An agreement was concluded in 2011 and the construction work started in October 2013.

“This reflects our strong commitment to contribute to the collective defence of all allies,” a ministry statement said.

Romania continues to be a strong supporter of the Open Doors Policy, welcoming the commitment and dedication of the aspirant countries. Officials in Bucharest said each NATO enlargement process after the Cold War brought added value to the Alliance and contributed in maintaining the relevance of the organisation.

The article Romania Celebrates 10 Years In NATO appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Geopolitical Monitor

By Zachary Fillingham

The East China Sea territorial dispute between China and Japan figured prominently in various geopolitical risk forecasts for 2014, and with good reason. Neither side shows any sign of standing down, and with every new military deployment near the contested area comes an increased risk of a small-scale military incident spiraling into war.

Anti-Japanese sentiment in China runs deep, fueled by memories of Japan’s brutal invasion and occupation during World War II. These feelings have been strengthened by the Chinese education system and state-controlled media, along with frequent examples over the years of half-hearted and waffling contrition on the part of the Japanese government. They have even been absorbed into the national narrative of China’s rise, such that China will only receive the official stamp of superpowerdom once Japan has been fully eclipsed in East Asia – politically, economically, and militarily.

As architect of China’s rise and self-professed redeemer of the Chinese nation, the Communist Party of China (CCP) needs to take these feelings into account. To neglect to do so would contradict the Party’s own carefully-crafted national mythology, and consequently erode the legitimacy of its one-party rule.

The dispute over the Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku in Japanese) is one issue where the CCP is prisoner to its own logic; thus, we shouldn’t expect any dovish overtures from Beijing, especially so long as the Abe administration insists on rattling the cage.

Though the underlying motivations may differ, Japan appears just as intent on not backing down. The resurgent nationalist vein that helped propel Shinzo Abe into power maintains that Japan has apologized enough for its militarist past, and it should now stand shoulder-to-shoulder with other major powers in international society as a “normal,” aka not abashedly pacifistic, democratic country.

Japanese politics seem to be at a crossroads, one with any number of disconcerting historical parallels (interwar Germany for one). After decades of deflationary economic malaise and ringing condemnations from its neighbours, a political force has arrived promising a reason for Japanese people to hold their heads high again. The elixir of Abenomics has already worked its magic on the economy – at least for the time being. Now all that remains is the question of Japan’s role in East Asia: Will it be a passive pole of US military power, or an assertive regional player that actively leans into China’s expanding capabilities?

This is a question that Prime Minister Abe would happily answer if given the chance, and with his oft-stated dream of amending Japan’s pacifist constitution and incendiary visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, it’s no great secret what form his answer would take. Whether or not the Japanese public will allow him to do so is another story. Although recent polls have shown a troubling anti-China trend (over 90% of the Japanese public have an “unfavorable” impression of China), Japan’s pacifist worldview is still largely intact, with 57% of the population opposing a government push to reinterpret Article 9, which would allow the Japanese military to participate in collective defense operations with the United States.

With both sides stubbornly insisting on the righteousness of their cause, the Diaoyu dispute stands as a serious problem with no easy solution. Both governments know that war would be economically disastrous, with annual two-way trade between China and Japan in excess of $340 billion, yet war remains a distinct possibility if the present course is maintained.

The U.S. Diplomatically Sidelined

It follows that if peace is to reign in the East China Sea, an outside mediator might be needed to defuse tensions and foster some kind of constructive dialogue between China and Japan. At first glance, the United States appears to be the most likely candidate. Armed conflict between Japan and China is about the last thing Washington wants to see in the Asia Pacific region, especially since it would be legally obligated to join in under the terms of the US-Japan security treaty. These concerns were echoed at a recent high-level defense meeting in Seoul, where Admiral Samuel Locklear, the head of US Pacific Command, urged a diplomatic solution to the East China Sea dispute, warning that it would take just one miscalculation from an inexperienced naval officer on either side for a full-blown crisis to break out.

Yet while it’s certainly true that the United States has a lot to lose in any conflict over the Diaoyu Islands, the Americans are not viewed as an impartial party in the eyes of the Chinese leadership. To Beijing, the enduring US military presence in the Asia Pacific – which itself hinges on the US-Japan security treaty – is a cold war anachronism that has been quietly repackaged into a containment strategy aimed at China. This perception of a pro-Japan bias hampers the US government’s ability to step in and broker a deal to end the dispute, leaving it with the single and thus far futile recourse of pressuring its ally in Tokyo to stand down.

The Taiwan Factor

There is another party embroiled in the East China Sea dispute, albeit one that is frequently absent from the headlines. Taiwan maintains its own claim to the islands, and it is geographically closest to the tiny archipelago. The Ma Ying-jeou government has also displayed some diplomatic flexibility vis-à-vis the obstinance on display in Beijing and Tokyo. In April of last year, Taiwan and Japan agreed to a fishing accord granting Taiwanese fisherman access to Japan’s exclusive economic zone around the disputed area. The deal stands as a positive example of mutual economic benefit beating out the short-term political expediency of a populist line.

The Ma government in Taiwan is also promoting a more comprehensive diplomatic solution to the conflict in the form of its East China Sea Peace Initiative (ECSPI). The plan calls for a peaceful resolution to the dispute that: avoids antagonism; promotes dialogue; abides by international law; establishes a code of conduct; and allows for joint exploration and development of resources in the disputed area. Though it’s unlikely the Taiwanese plan will be accepted at face value by China, which views the self-governing island as its own province and thus lacking in the authority to engage in multilateral diplomacy, the ECSPI is the best attempt so far at taking this precarious regional flashpoint and transforming it into an economic boon for all parties involved.

Moving Forward

Like so many other disputes past and present, it doesn’t matter so much which party is “right” on the Diaoyu Islands, but that the issue is resolved in a peaceful manner. Doing so will require an act of faith from both Japan and China. Abe may already be attempting, however feebly, to atone for his recent shrine visit, declaring that “no heroes rest at Yasukuni” in a Davos speech that was roundly panned by Chinese and South Korean diplomats. It will take a lot more than that to reopen the regional lines of communication, and the task might fall to the Japanese people, who need to send a message to Abe that his dream is not a shared one.

A diplomatic opportunity lies in Japan’s self-marginalization if Beijing is willing to seize it. If the Chinese government can transcend the bitter history involved and take the lead in implementing the spirit of Taiwan’s ECSPI plan, it would go a long way in proving that Beijing is a responsible force in the region. This would serve Chinese interests in a wider sense, from defusing tensions in the South China Sea and sapping regional support for a greater US military presence, to even accruing some of that much sought-after soft power. When viewed in this light, the cost of serious, though ultimately passing popular dissatisfaction might be worth paying in order to shore up longer term strategic considerations.

Given what’s at risk – the lives, wealth, and legacy; not just in East Asia but the world – the decision to seek a peaceful solution should be a no-brainer.

Zachary Fillingham is a contributor to Geopoliticalmonitor.com

The article Peace Is The Only Answer In China-Japan Island Dispute – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By RT

Federal charges were made public early Monday against two men accused of operating a bitcoin exchange business in connection with the ongoing investigation involving the Silk Road online marketplace.

The United States Justice Department published a statement on their website on Monday morning confirming that the two men, Robert Faiella and Charlie Shrem, had been arrested within hours of each other and charged with one count of conspiracy to commit money laundering, and one count of operating an unlicensed money transmitting business. The charges carry a maximum of 25 years in prison.

“As alleged, Robert Faiella and Charlie Shrem schemed to sell over $1 million in bitcoins to criminals bent on trafficking narcotics on the dark web drug site, Silk Road,” Preet Bharara, the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York, said in Monday’s statement. “Truly innovative business models don’t need to resort to old-fashioned law-breaking, and when bitcoins, like any traditional currency, are laundered and used to fuel criminal activity, law enforcement has no choice but to act. We will aggressively pursue those who would coopt new forms of currency for illicit purposes.”

Shrem, the CEO of the bitcoin exchange service BitInstant, was also charged with one count of willful failure to file a suspicious activity report, which carries a maximum sentence of five years.

Only last month, Shrem told reporters at the website Vocative they had been forced to take his website offline more than once recently over concerns about dealing in the still infant digital cryptocurrency.

”If we want to exist 20 years from now, we want to make sure all of our ducks are in a row,” he said in December. “And right now, they’re not.”

Federal prosecutors apparently couldn’t agree more. While Shrem’s site BitInstant served as an exchange place for people who wanted to trade in their cryptocurrency for fiat money, feds say both defendants did much more than that.

“Hiding behind their computers, both defendants are charged with knowingly contributing to and facilitating anonymous drug sales, earning substantial profits along the way. Drug law enforcement’s job is to investigate and identify those who abet the illicit drug trade at all levels of production and distribution including those lining their own pockets by feigning ignorance of any wrong doing and turning a blind eye.”

Shrem was arrested on Sunday at John F Kennedy International Airport near New York City, and Faiella was brought into custody by police officers who entered his Cape Coral, Florida home early on Monday. Both men are expected to be tried separately.

Ross Ulricht, a California man accused of operating the Silk Road website, has been in policy custody since being arrested last year.

The article Bitcoin Exchange Operators Arrested In Connection With Silk Road Case appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By VOR

Syria’s government delegation at peace talks in Geneva presented a declaration of principles for negotiations which did not mention a transition of power and was rejected by the opposition, Syrian television said on Monday.

The “declaration of basic principles” said Syrians would choose a political system without “imposed formulas” from abroad, an apparent reference to Western and regional demands that President Bashar al-Assad step down and hand power to a transitional government.

A source close to the government delegation told AFP the opposition had rejected discussion of anything other than the creation of a transitional government.

“The government delegation presented a statement on essential principles to save Syria, the State and its people from extremist terrorism,” the source said.

“As soon as it finished the Coalition rejected this statement and demanded that we talk only of a transitional body. Mr Brahimi then adjourned the session,” the source said.

The article Syrian Government Lays Out Terms For Geneva Talks, Opposition Rejects appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By CNA

By Elise Harris

During Pope Francis’ meeting with French president Francois Hollande on Friday, the two discussed an array of topics concerning human dignity, centering the meeting on the role of religion in society.

In a Jan. 24 statement released regarding the meeting earlier that morning, Vatican spokesman Fr. Federico Lombardi revealed that the “cordial” discussion primarily focused on “the contribution that religion makes to the common good.”

Pope Francis received President Hollande in audience at the Vatican Apostolic Palace on Friday morning, which was the first meeting between the two since either has been elected.

Hollande won the 2012 elections in the French Republic as the Socialist party candidate, and is the first leftwing president the country has had in almost 20 years.

Emphasizing the standing positive relations between France and the Holy See, both the Pope and the President voiced a mutual commitment to sustaining regular dialogue between the State and the Catholic Church, and continuing constructive collaboration regarding questions of common interest.

In the context of the defense and promotion of the dignity of the human person, the Vatican’s statement revealed that the two discussed various matters which are of current relevance, including the topics of the family, bioethics, respect for religious communities and the protection of places of worship.

The discussion then turned to international issues, such as problems regarding poverty and development, migration and the environment, and particular concern was voiced surrounding the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, and in some regions of Africa.

Regarding these situations, the pair expressed hope that a peaceful social co-existence in the countries affected can be established again through dialogue, with the full participation of all members of society.

Pope Francis and the President also spoke of their desire that this restored peace would be one that recognizes with full respect the rights of all, in particular those of ethnic and religious minorities.

The last meeting to take place between a Pope and French officials was in Oct. of 2010, when retired pontiff Benedict XVI met with President Nicolas Sarkozy.

During the 2010 encounter, Benedict and Sarkozy spoke of the role of Christians in various countries around the world, as well as the task of getting a broader spectrum of countries involved in multilateral organizations.

Among the other issues discussed between the two were the ethical and social dimensions of economic problems in light of the Pope’s encyclical “Caritas in Veritatae,” as well as the international political situation, including peace efforts and the Middle East, with particular emphasis on relations with the Muslim population.

The article Pope, Hollande Discuss Positive Role Of Religion In Society appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By JTW

By Reyhan Güner

320 people in Nigeria have been charged with being affiliated with Boko Haram and are now in custody.

Police sources stated that they searched 25 buses at control points and that 320 people were brought to police stations after being arrested for being connected to Boko Haram. Spokesman of the State of Rivers Police Center Ahmad Mohamed Kidaya stated that they could not give any information about the probe until it is concluded.

Even though the Boko Haram’s attacks have been eliminated in big cities, the terrorist organization continues to attack villages and a few cities such as Maiduguri, Damaturu, and Mubi.

Boko Haram is accused of killing thousands of people since 2009. Furthermore, the Nigerian government has had to declare a state of emergency several times because of Boko Haram’s bloody attacks.

Boko Haram that started its actions as a peaceful organization against corruption in the government turned violent after its leader, Mohamed Yousef, was killed by police forces in 2009. Boko Haram was recently declared a terrorist organization by many countries, including the United States and Canada.

The article Nigeria: 320 Arrested For Alleged Boko Haram Ties appeared first on Eurasia Review.