By Elcano Royal Institute

By Haizam Amirah-Fernández

The upheavals in Egypt have not come to an end and neither have the foundations been laid for settling a convulsive and erratic transition. Three years have passed since the events that Egyptians still refer to as the ‘25th of January revolution ’ toppled Hosni Mubarak and aroused enormous interest worldwide . During that time, the country has been subject to constant disturbances that have fuelled uncertainty and social polarisation, while the serious social and economic problems that caused the riots have become even more entrenched.

Few in Egypt consider that the situation today is better than it was three years ago, neither economically, as revenues in key sectors like tourism have plummeted and foreign investment has fled, nor in security, as violence and criminality have surged. Time and again observers from outside the country have voiced concern about the alarming signs of decomposition in Egypt, a process with a high potential of spilling over to the rest of the Middle East and North Africa in the form of socio-political instability and militant radicalism.

Over the past three years, the transition in Egypt has been marked by constant changes in the ground rules, the inability to forge basic consensuses and stable alliances, the repetition of recent mistakes, the zero-sum attitude of the main players and the generation of expectations that soon fail to be met. These characteristics are not foreign to other transition processes, but in Egypt they have occurred in a heightened form over a short period of time.

One conclusion to be drawn from what has occurred since Mubarak’s overthrow is that each new step taken has conjured up mirages and illusions, giving rise to serious miscalculations by all the political and social players involved. The same can be said of the present, when the military appear to control the situation after having displaced, at least for the time being, their main political adversary: the Muslim Brotherhood.

The deposed President, Mohamed Morsi, and his Muslim Brotherhood committed the fatal mistake of believing that a victory at the polls –even with 51.7% of the vote– gave them the right to legislate as they pleased, to place themselves above the law and to impose a Constitution tailored to their own wishes. Their sectarian and incompetent administration soon made them many enemies. The current problem in Egypt is that those who rule also claim to possess the ‘legitimacy of the masses’ to draft laws restricting rights, to approve a Constitution through an undemocratic process and impose a narrative of the ‘fight against terrorism’ , for which it blames the Muslim Brotherhood, many of whose members are now facing tough prison sentences .

If the 2012 Islamist Constitution was not the result of a broadly-based social and political consensus, the same can be said of the new Constitution, approved under military patronage. Despite the apparently wide social support for the new charter, as suggested by the ubiquitous media campaign in its favour (it was forbidden to canvass against it), only a third of the electorate voted in its favour. According to official sources, 98.1% of the vote was in favour, a figure which brings to mind the electoral results of times gone by.

The constitutional referendum held last week could prove to be yet another mirage of the many conjured up in Egypt’s transition process. Many of those who voted in favour, especially women and the elderly, did so in the hope of seeing stability restored and law and order enforced, whose deterioration has upset the lives and economies of much of the population. The referendum was also presented as an attempt to legitimise the current political order and as a protest or revenge vote against the Muslim Brotherhood. Some even saw it as a plebiscite that might enable the strong man of the moment, the chief of the Armed Forces, Abdelfatah al-Sisi, to be acclaimed the new President of the Arab Republic of Egypt.

The months following last July’s coup, headed by al-Sisi himself, have both revealing and, at the same time, disturbing. Since then the country has experienced an ascending spiral of repression and violence that has aimed to exclude political adversaries by any means, thus causing a deep social split and repeated attempts to return to the police State practices of the Mubarak era.

To avoid the appearance of weakness or misrule, the State has opted for employing a heavy hand to deal with the most pressing concern for most Egyptians: insecurity (whether real or fuelled by the media). Hence, repression by the military, the Ministry of the Interior and the judiciary has become steadily harsher since July. First it was directed at the Muslim Brotherhood, but it is now also being aimed at young revolutionaries, intellectuals and any voice critical of the drift towards a greater authoritarianism. The growing tide of repression, however, has failed to check the rioting in the streets or to prevent attacks against the police and the army, whose frequency and severity are on the increase.

In their eagerness to monopolise power, the military and their allies in the so-called ‘deep State’ (the security services, bureaucracy, media, big business, etc.) seem to be unconcerned about the domestic economy of the average Egyptian. The country’s society is large and very young, it grows rapidly and has a very unequal distribution of wealth. Furthermore, the economy is still standing almost entirely due to the generous aid provided by certain Gulf States interested in preventing its collapse. Aid, however, will prove insufficient if unaccompanied by deep and multitier economic reforms, targeted at socially sensitive issues such as subsidies for basic goods and energy.

Three interconnected factors will shape the future of the precarious Egyptian transition: the economy, security and the capacity for political and social integration. In the absence of national stability and reconciliation, it is difficult to see how the objectives of the revolt that toppled Mubarak –summarised in the slogan ‘bread, freedom, social justice’– can be met. On top of that, the serious deficiencies in public services as a result of insufficient resources, institutional inefficiency and rampant corruption, will make social peace difficult to achieve.

On the other hand, Egyptian society is changing and is no longer afraid to demand the removal of its presidents (the fourth president in three years will be chosen within the next few months). Egyptians have also discovered the power of mobilisation to bring about political and constitutional change (they are on their third constitution in three years, a feat not many countries can boast of). The apathy of the past has given way to impatience in the face of a lack of results, and if there is one thing Egyptians are proving it is that they can quickly remove their support from those in charge.

Attempting to govern a fragmented society plagued by grave socioeconomic problems through resorting to the methods of the past seems a complicated task of doubtful success. It is likely that al-Sisi may wish to see himself as the saviour of the nation or as the charismatic successor of Gamal Abdel Naser, but in a context this problematic if he were to become president, nothing guarantees that he will not follow the fate of either of his two military predecessors, far from the glory he seeks.

Does Egypt run the risk of becoming a failed State? Although it might seem unlikely today, there are increasingly more reasons to not entirely dismiss the possibility. Were such an outcome to materialise, the consequences world-wide would be unimaginable. It is evident that the Egyptian State today is much weaker than it appears, given its inefficiency and that it is paradoxically resorting to repression in order to appear stronger. One conclusion that can be drawn from what has occurred in the last three years in Egypt is that if Mubarak fell, it was especially because his regime ceased to be strong and became fierce instead. The question now is whether or not the current rulers wish to put this conclusion to the test.

Haizam Amirah-Fernández, Senior Analyst for the Mediterranean and Arab World at the Elcano Royal Institute and Professor of International Relations at the Instituto de Empresa | @HaizamAmirah

This article was originally published in Spanish as ‘Tres años de espejismos’ in El Mundo, 24 January 2014.

Source: Elcano Royal Institute

The article Egypt: Three Years Of Mirages – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By COHA

By Allan Greicon and contributorsJason Mann, and Lauren Foiles

On Tuesday, January 28 and Wednesday, January 29, 33 members of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) are set to meet in Havana, Cuba to discuss a multitude of pertinent issues in the region, the most prominent being inequality, poverty and national security. This two-day summit will gather heads of state and foreign ministers from all of the countries of the Americas, with the exception of the United States and Canada. Making an appearance in Cuba for the first time since 1962 will be Secretary General of the Organization of American States, José Miguel Insulza. [1]

Numerous preliminary discussions have already placed relevant topics on the table. One such conference was the national coordinators meeting on January 25. Among the results of the gathering were the Proclamation of Latin America as a Zone of Peace and the establishment of a China-CELAC forum. [2] A topic likely to be considered at the CELAC conference will be the ongoing peace talks between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The Uruguayan President José Mujica recently made an informal request to Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos and FARC leaders to confer in a trilateral discussion at the summit. Drug trafficking has been one of the most pressing issues during the peace talks. Mujica is in a unique position to lead the discussion, as his administration recently passed a controversial law permitting the sale and distribution of marijuana. [3]

The recently formed CELAC provides a more comprehensive alternative to the preceding Rio Group, which was originally established in 1986. Since the Rio Group dissolved in 2010, there has been one CELAC conference, which was held in Santiago, Chile in 2013. [4] The 2014 meeting in Havana represents the objectives of the CELAC member states to further enhance diplomatic participation in the region and the effort to continue the growing trend towards regional organizations.

The location of the summit solidifies an emerging trend that Latin American and Caribbean countries have displayed no reservations about including Cuba in regional integration initiatives. Despite the mid 1990s being a prime time for Latin American countries to restore diplomatic ties with Cuba, it was not until 2009 that two Central American countries (El Salvador and Costa Rica) lifted a diplomatic freeze on their neighboring island [5]. Cuba playing host for the second annual gathering puts to rest any lingering qualms that Latin American and Caribbean states would take steps towards regional integration without Cuba.

Ironically, the meeting marks an isolationist era for the United States in Latin American and Caribbean affairs. Several U.S. policies that were originally put into place to ostracize Cuba from the rest of the world, most notably the Cuban embargo, are now having the very same effect on the United States. In the recent United Nations vote to repeal the U.S. embargo against Cuba, only Israel voted alongside Washington, making the final count in the General Assembly 188-2 [6]. The U.S. stands virtually alone with its foreign policies towards Cuba, which is clearly reflected through its exclusion from the multilateral summit and other area meetings.

If the United States continues to promote security-oriented and impeding foreign policy initiatives towards Cuba and the entire hemisphere, it will be unable to project and participate in the new progressive organizations that are now part of a revitalized integrating process, which include initiatives such as CELAC, the Union of South American Nations, and the Pacific Alliance.

Allan Greicon, Research Associates at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA). Contributors: Jason Mann, and Lauren Foiles, Research Associates at COHA.

[1] Ravsberg, Fernando, “Los Retos de la Integración,” BBC Mundo, Last modified January 23, 2014 http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/blogs/2014/01/140123_blog_cartas_desde_cuba_retos_integracion.shtml

[2] “National coordinators Approved Proclamation of Latin America as Zone of Peace”, Official Website of the Second Summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), Last modified January, 2014 http://celac.cubaminrex.cu/en/articles/national-coordinators-approved-proclamation-latin-america-zone-peace

[3] Ramsey Geoffrey, “Daily News Briefing Friday, January 24, 2014,” PanAmericanPost, Last modified January 24, 2014. http://www.thepanamericanpost.com/2014/01/colombias-santos-talks-drugs-at-davos.html

[4] “Rio Group,” NTI, Last modified April, 2012. http://www.nti.org/treaties-and-regimes/rio-group/

[5] “Cuba Neighbours To Restore Ties.” BBC News, March 19,2000. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7951908.stm.

[6] Chappell, Bill. “U.N. Condemns U.S. Embargo Of Cuba, Again.” NPR, Last modified October, 29 2014. http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013/10/29/241658360/u-n-condemns-u-s-embargo-of-cuba-again

The article Cuba, US, And The Community Of Latin American And Caribbean States – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Profit Confidential

By Michael Lombardi

The stock market looks like it’s in big trouble. This shouldn’t be a surprise to my readers; I have predicting this event for months.

So far in 2014, and we are only three weeks into it, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has shed 709 points (4.3%). But I think the explosions for 2014 are just getting started.

History has proven that whenever investor optimism increases, and there’s a general sense of security in the stock market, the market unexpectedly comes crashing down.

Investors and stock advisors just got way too confident and optimistic about the stock market. Since the S&P 500 rose about 30% in 2013, the general consensus was that the rise in stock prices would continue into 2014.

But here’s the reality of the situation…

In 2013, S&P 500 companies posted their slowest earnings growth since 2009. By the end of last year, the number of companies issuing negative corporate earnings guidance for their next quarter reached the highest ever recorded. (Source: FactSet, January 2, 2014.)

The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Market Volatility Index (VIX), better known as the “Fear Index,” has reached a six-year low. The VIX is telling us that investors are as confident today (have less fear about stock prices declining) as they were in 2007. Well, we all know what happened after 2007.

The “January indicator” says that if the stock market falls in January, it usually falls for the remainder of the year. So far, January has been a disaster for stocks.

2013 was a record year for stock buybacks, a financial engineering exercise that props up per-share earnings.

And the amount of money investors have borrowed to buy stocks, as measured by the NYSE margin, is at its highest level ever. This is another contrarian indicator.

Optimism mixed in with irrationality and money printing drove the stock market higher in 2013. But as I have been writing, this can’t go on forever. 2014, as I have warned, will be a very difficult year for the stock market. And now that the downturn is upon us, the question is “how far will she go?” The stock market moved higher than most people thought. I believe it will now fall lower than most people can fathom.

This article January Indicator” Points to a Terrible 2014 for Stocks was originally published at Profit Confidential

The article ‘January Indicator’ Points To A Terrible 2014 For Stocks – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Radio Zamaneh

Iranian MP Ali Iranpour has announced that red meat imported from Ukraine in recent months has been contaminated with radioactivity.

The report indicates that earlier, following reports that contaminated meat from Ukraine had been imported into the country, meat inspection officials announced that the products had not been distributed and had been rejected after tests revealed the contamination.

Khaneh Mellat reports, however, that Parliament’s agricultural commission has not been able to confirm that the products were duly tested and kept from entering the market.

Iranpour has been quoted as saying such contamination, even in a limited amount, can cause serious health problems for the public.

The article Iranian MP Says Meat Imported From Ukraine Contaminated With Radioactivity appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Arab News

By Abdulateef Al-Mulhim

Almost every individual around the globe uses cell phone but few know about Coltan, a metallic ore, which is made into a component for many electronic devices like cell phones. Due to advancement in the digital technology, the demand of Coltan has skyrocketed.

Like many other minerals, it is found in abundance in Africa due to which, many countries in the Dark Continent have become cauldrons of chaos. A tug-of-war between various tribes over the control of these resources has resulted into deaths of hundreds. This is an ongoing phenomenon and hardly attracts media attention. Of course, this will affect the soaring business of global IT giants. I would like to share with my readers another interesting fact, in the war-torn Sudan a special kind of glue is produced that is used in Colas (do not wish to name the brand for obvious reasons).

You must be wondering why this writer is focusing on these mineral resources. The reason is most, if not all; conflicts in the world are a result of a race to gain control of the natural resources. There is an economic aspect of most, if not all, political conflicts. In this context, it would be easier to understand the changing position of Iran in the world. From an outlaw state that was about to be attacked last year to the most welcomed country at Davos, Iran has obviously something to offer to the world. Isn’t it interesting that all of a sudden American companies are all set to land in Tehran? Pure economics is at work.

Iranian President Hassan Rowhani commandeered the spotlight at Davos. He delivered a message of peaceful intentions and a desire to do business with all companies around the world. And business it is. And all of a sudden, being a nuclear power meant nothing to the Iranian leadership and Iran agreed to halt any further uranium enrichments. It is ironic that for the past 10 years, the whole word was on a collision course with Iran but in Davos the new Iranian path crisscrossed with not only the American or the West but also with Israel. The Americans and Israelis are no longer the Great Satan. The entire world appears to have forgotten Ahmadinejad’s threats to annihilate Israel. The reason behind this change of heart is Iran’s vast natural resources that to this day remain largely untapped.

Iran has oil, gas, caviar, saffron, rugs and most important Iranian youths who are craving for anything “Made in USA.” They want American music and other products. There are hundreds of thousands of Iranian in the United States who are happy and love the American way of life and they can work as a bridge between the two countries. And there are millions in Iran who still remember the good old days when Iran and America enjoyed strategic ties. At this stage, Iran’s most important energy infrastructure is old and outdated or damaged during the Iran-Iraq war.

The need for a massive moderation of the Iranian oilfields can bring not millions or billions to the American companies but it will bring trillions of dollars in the next few years. And to add to these trillions, the majority of Iranians want American cars and other commodities and gadgets. And with business transactions and economic deals, politics will change and center of political strategies will shift. And yes, Iran will see the positive changes of attitudes toward Iranian leadership and more political channels will open but at the same time Iran will have to adapt to those changes and must show a more positive attitude to the outside world, especially its neighbors.

Sooner or later, Iran will have to slam its doors open to the West. It must learn to mix business with the protocols of politics. One thing Iran is yet to realize is that it is the economic interest between nations that shapes up ties. And it is about time that the Iranians start thinking about their own country and must forget past dreams about spreading their “revolutionary” ideology. A final note to Iran, the Americans want to do business fast. In business they don’t like to wait. In other words, don’t take 444 days in signing a deal. It might remind the Americans of the 1979 hostage crisis. But with so much natural resources waiting to be explored, who would care about the plight of the 52 American hostages over three decades ago. After all it’s all about profits and business.

Email: almulhimnavy@hotmail.com

The article Understanding The Iran-West Detente – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By VOA

U.S. President Barack Obama is using a two-day, four-state tour to promote the goals he laid out Tuesday night in his State of the Union address, highlighted by a pledge to advance his economic agenda, even without Congressional support.

Obama’s trip begins Wednesday in suburban Washington, 15 kilometers from the U.S. Capitol where he called for lawmakers to work with him to reform the tax code, create jobs, raise the minimum wage, improve education opportunities and fund innovation. He noted the country’s economic progress, but said that given recent legislative gridlock he is ready to act without Congress to help the middle class and speed growth.

“But America doesn’t stand still and neither will I. So whenever and wherever I can take steps without legislation to expand opportunity for more American families, that’s what I am going to do,” he promised.

On a key foreign policy issue, the president noted an international agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, saying diplomacy backed by pressure has reversed parts of the program for the first time in a decade. He emphasized he did not want lawmakers to put forth new sanctions that could derail the process.

“But let me be clear: if this Congress sends me a new sanctions bill now that threatens to derail these talks, I will veto it,” he warned. “For the sake of our national security, we must give diplomacy a chance to succeed. ”

Obama said he will be the first to call for more sanctions if Iran’s leaders do not seize the opportunity.

He also discussed the ongoing talks with the Afghan government over the future of U.S. troops beyond the 2014 planned withdrawal of international forces.

“If the Afghan government signs a security agreement that we have negotiated, a small force of Americans could remain in Afghanistan with NATO allies to carry out two narrow missions: training and assisting Afghan forces, and counterterrorism operations to pursue any remnants of al-Qaida,” the president said.

He urged the full Congress Tuesday to approve an immigration reform measure that passed in the Senate last year. The bill stalled in the House of Representatives under intense opposition from conservatives.

“Independent economists say immigration reform will grow our economy and shrink our deficits by almost $1 trillion in the next two decades. And for good reason: when people come here to fulfill their dreams – to study, to invent and contribute to our culture – they make our country a more attractive place for businesses to locate and create jobs for everyone. So let’s get immigration reform done this year,” Obama said.

The president’s approval rating has dropped to less than 50 percent. With voters unhappy with the economy and gridlock in Congress, Obama is looking to make a fresh start in 2014.

In the Republican response to Obama’s speech, U.S. Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington state blamed the administration’s policies for widening the gap between where people’s lives stand now and where they want to be.

Problems with the execution of the president’s signature health care law last year sparked outrage from lawmakers and the public. But President Obama used his State of the Union speech to appeal to Republicans not to vote again to overturn it.

He touted the health care program’s achievements, saying it gives people peace of mind that they do not have to lose everything if misfortune strikes. He said that because of the new law, no American can be turned down for health insurance because of a pre-existing condition, such as asthma or cancer. And he said a woman will no longer be charged more for health care just because she is a woman.

Obama is also trying to bounce back from last year’s controversies over National Security Agency spying and the 16-day government shutdown during the budget standoff.

The article Obama Tours US To Sell Legislative Goals appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Al Bawaba News

The Egyptian army said on Wednesday it killed two militants in an air offensive in Sinai and destroyed two homes it said belonged to other “dangerous” militants.

Attacks targeting police and military in the Sinai Peninsula have become commonplace since the army ousted former president Mohamed Morsi in July amid nationwide protests.

Army planes destroyed a home owned by “one of the most dangerous” militants in North Sinai, and believed to have been used for “harbouring militants and storing weaponry and explosives,” military spokesman Colonel Ahmed Ali said.

The bombing occurred south of Sheikh Zuwayed, causing a “massive explosion” due to the large quantities of explosives and weapons housed in the building, Ali said.

Troops also shelled another home owned by a suspected militant connected with a recent missile attack that downed a military helicopter in the peninsula, killing five soldiers.

The Sinai-based Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis group, which has claimed responsibility for most of the deadly militant attacks across the country, said its fighters shot down the helicopter.

Two other suspect Jihadists were killed during the air bombing raid targeting militant hideouts in the region, the spokesman added.

Egypt’s army has brought in troops and armour into the restive peninsula, which adjoins Israel and the Gaza Strip, to flush out militants who have stepped up deadly attacks on police and soldiers since Morsi’s overthrow.

The government has mounted a sustained crackdown on Morsi’s Brotherhood, which it designated a terrorist organisation, in which hundreds of Islamists have been killed and thousands others jailed, including Morsi.

A series of deadly bombings targeting police Cairo last week–also claimed by Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis–has heightened fears that militant violence is taking hold outside Sinai.

Original article

The article Egyptian Army Cracks Down On Islamist Militants In Sinai appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Balkan Insight

By Dusica Tomovic

The head of a government probe into media attacks has filed charges against the Deputy Prime Minister for allegedly withholding information in the investigation into a prominent journalist’s murder in 2004.

Nikola Markovic, chairman of a government commission examining attacks on journalists, filed charges on Tuesday against Dusko Markovic, Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Minister, because he allegedly did not tell an investigation into the murder of Dusko Jovanovic, the editor-in-chief of the opposition newspaper Dan, all the facts that he knew. Marovic was head of the secret service at the time.

On a TV Vijesti talk show broadcast last week, Markovic claimed the former chief of the secret service had information that Jovanovic’s life was in danger before he was killed.

“Before the hearing in 2004, Markovic was warned to tell the truth and not withhold anything … He was aware that the suppression of important facts regarding the investigation would directly help all the perpetrators and masterminds [of the murder],” Markovic said.

Jovanovic, who both edited and owned Dan, was shot dead while leaving his office in Podgorica on May 27, 2004. He had frequently published articles deeply critical of the government and had received numerous death threats.

Only one man has been convicted so far in the case, Damir Mandic, who was jailed for 18 years as an accomplice to the crime. Those behind the murder have yet to be identified.

The state prosecution last September confirmed that it had reopened the investigation into the murder.

The OSCE Representative on Freedom of the Media, Dunja Mijatovic, urged the authorities to end the apparent climate of impunity enjoyed by those attacking journalists.

“I welcome the fact that there is an on-going investigation into the case of Dusko Jovanovic. I urge the authorities to ensure a thorough and transparent investigation to identify the perpetrators and bring them to justice,” Mijatovic said.

The article Montenegin Minister Sued For Concealing Murder Facts appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Eurasia Review

By Keith K C Hui

Democratic election has been downgraded to a simple arithmetic head count game in Thailand, Ukraine, Belgium and Egypt (the TUBE states) and is no longer a peaceful and meaningful political system for selection of leaders there.

When the voting minority groups refuse to accept the defeats in elections and attempt frequently or continually to topple the leaders who have been legitimately mandated by the victorious majority (even though by a slim marginal number of ballots), the one-man-one-vote mechanism for selecting the rulers or governing party is dysfunctional.

In Thailand, the political parties (in different names) led by Thaksin Shinawatra scored 40.6% vs 26.6% popular votes in the 2001 general election, 56.4% vs 16.1% in 2005, 36.6% vs 30.3% in 2007 (constituency), 39.60% vs 39.63% in 2007 (proportional), and then 48.4% vs 35.15% in 2011. Despite the definite and consistent choices of the majority (mainly in the rural areas) of the Thai voters, the properly and legally elected government was first overthrown by a coup in 2006 and is now being demanded to be dissolved to give way to an unelected “people’s council” led by the opposition leaders. In order to demolish the “Thaksin regime”, Suthep Thaugsuban has suggested to bypass the democratic election since he knows he will lose in the one-man-one-vote head count game again.

In Ukraine, the divide between the pro-Russia east and the pro-European Union west has also brought the state into chaos. Unlike Thailand, there is a lack of a definite majority here and as indicated in the Orange Revolution 2004 and the death of Georgiy Gongadze in 2000, the hostile confrontation can last longer. When Viktor Yanukovych exercised his presidential authority to scrap a pact for “closer integration with the 28-nation European Union” in November 2013, his opponents cannot afford to wait for the next general election to vote him down. Hundreds of thousands of pro-EU citizens keep on storming the Independence Square to rally for Yanukovych’s resignation, thus further intensifying the face off between them and those living in the eastern region of the country who mostly speak Russian and prefer a closer tie with Moscow.

The cultural and linguistic split between the Dutch-speaking and French-speaking communities in Belgium had left the state without a government for as long as 589 days during the period 2007-11 continually. Although democratic election did generate a Dutch majority in the Belgian Chamber, the various dissensions derived from regionalism are unlikely to be settled by the art of political negotiation for a compromise. Elio Di Rupo’s premiership since December 2011 is temporary and transitional. Unless there is a breakthrough, the partition of Belgium is inevitable.

The July 2013 coup to overthrow the authority of Mohammed Mursi in Egypt is a clear sign that election, no matter how open and fair may it be, is not a magic wand which can soften the polarization between the Muslim Brotherhood and their opponents. Universal suffrage, after having soured to become a simple head count game, can no longer bring peace to this old civilization nation. Egyptians should know that religious fights did result in secession in history, for example, Pakistan’s departure from India.

Secession will take place eventually if there is no alternative to democracy when election fails to function as a generally accepted leader selection and government formation system in the TUBE states. It has been evident that the standoffs derived from geographical difference or cultural gap or religious divergence therein have paralyzed the governance. Whoever wins the next election cannot command respect and generate stability because with the head-count-based majority mandate the governing party becomes an exclusive club and rules like a tyranny of the majority [Note 1]. Those who have lost the election refuse to co-operate with the governing party and resort to street protests to override the ballot outcome. Once the opposition leaders capture the authority, they tend to undo the previous regime’s setup (a similar situation can also be found in Taiwan). Lack of policy continuity deters foreign investments, international deals and the like. Diplomacy is difficult since no one knows whether the pacts signed by the incumbent leaders will be honored by the successors. A vicious cycle will take charge and the only solution is secession.

However, there is an alternative now. To win the support of the co-nationals, it is not a must for political leaders in TUBE to be selected through a simple-minded head count game. The meritocratic “Helmsman Ruler System” — a modern, pragmatic and experimental version of Plato’s rotational ruler system which has been working in China quite smoothly since the 1980s — is a feasible option. Teams of competent intellectual-turned-politicians from all backgrounds (like the Politburo in Beijing) take turn to lead the state after having gone through a number of training programs and proved their talents and caliber through a series of postings among various administrative positions [Note 2].

In Thailand, the helmsman rulers will be the ones who have served at the local governments in both urban and rural areas, and won the praises of both the office managers, white-collar workers and rice farmers. In Ukraine, the state will be governed by an inclusive team of helmsman rulers who are willing and able to cater for diverse regional needs. In Belgium, the Dutch-speaking and French-speaking leaders can rule the state in rotation so as to balance the interests of the two different linguistic communities. In Egypt, well trained administrators will work with the leaders of various religious groups and in rotation to revive the glory of the nation.

Plato’s rotational ruler system is neither remote nor idealistic anymore. Take a look at China and see how it has brought success to this weak and poor state. The Helmsman Ruler System can work out to serve any nation by adaptation to individual national needs.

About the author:
Keith K C Hui is a Chinese University of Hong Kong graduate, a Fellow of The Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (UK), a former Manager (Asset Management) at HK Monetary Authority and now a retired businessman; and the author of “Helmsman Ruler: China’s Pragmatic Version of Plato’s Ideal Political Succession System in The Republic”.

[Note 1] See p. 45 in Russell, Bertrand (1917), Political Ideals, London: Unwin Paperbacks.

[Note 2] Eurasia Review, Keith K C Hui, “China’s Rotational Ruler Model”

http://www.eurasiareview.com/04092013-chinas-rotational-ruler-model-analysis/

Eurasia Review, Keith K C Hui, “A China Model with British Accent”
http://www.eurasiareview.com/07112013-china-model-british-accent-oped/

Hui, Keith K C (2013), Helmsman Ruler: China’s Pragmatic Version of Plato’s Ideal Political Succession System in The Republic, Singapore: Trafford Publishing.

The article Thailand, Ukraine, Belgium And Egypt: On The Way Secession, Any Alternative? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By SETimes

By Kruno Kartus

The European Commission is proposing that the EU launch an excessive deficit procedure against Croatia due to the country’s high deficit and public debt — an action that some experts agree should be taken.

Under an excessive deficit procedure, the government will have to reduce its deficit to less than 3 percent of GDP by various measures, including reducing public spending.

According to the ministry, the total deficit in the state budget at the end of August 2013 amounted to 1.8 billion euros, which is about 3.8 percent of GDP. The deficit for 2012 was 5 percent of GDP, while government debt was 55.5 percent of GDP.

The commission is concerned about predictions the deficit will remain more than 3 percent until 2015, and public debt is expected to exceed 60 percent this year.

“By 2016 we need to reduce the deficit below 3 percent of GDP,” economic experts Anto Bajo and Marko Primorac from the Institute of Public Finance said in a statement.

The deficit in 2014 should be 450 million euros less than what is predicted by the government, for 2015 it should be reduced by nearly 523 million euros, and in 2016, by 392 million euros.

“We need to cut 1.5 billion euros from estimations from 2014 to 2016,” Bajo and Primorac said.

Croatia Minister of Finance Slavko Linic said the EU measure is expected, but that Croatia has reduced its debt in the last two years. Croatia decreased the deficit by 650 million euros from 2011 to 2012, Linić said in an interview with Slobodna Dalmacija.

The problem is partly due to the fact that Croatia spent more than 400 million euros to rehabilitate its public health service to meet EU standards. In addition, from 2006 to 2011, the state spent 3.7 billion euros to economically recover the country’s shipyards.

“Consequently, the budget deficit for this year rose to more than 2 billion euros, and next year it is projected to be more than 2 billion euros. In addition, 2014 expenditures are expected to increase due to the cost of membership in the European Union,” Linic said.

This year, EU membership will cost the country between 450 and 500 million euros.

“The problems of Croatia’s debt are more serious than they look. The share of debt to GDP is not a good indicator of indebtedness. Much more relevant is the indicator of the ability to repay debt is the debt and budget revenues, because only budget revenues reflect available financial potential to cover expenses,” Primorac, a professor at the University of Zagreb Faculty of Economics, told SETimes.

“Due to the high costs of borrowing, interest also increases, and the deficit becomes larger. Investor confidence decreases, and the cost of borrowing is greater than the cost of debt that caused the deficit,” Primorac said.

According to the World Bank, the excessive debt procedure will help the country bring its debt to a more manageable scope.

“The excessive deficit procedure is a good disciplinary tool for restoring macro-stability and reducing macro-imbalances. If it does not solve its economic weakness through sustainable fiscal adjustment and institutional reforms, Croatia will not fully benefit from EU membership, and the search for future prosperity may prove unsuccessful,” the World Bank office in Zagreb said in a statement to SETimes.

Two of the government’s priorities are to fix fiscal sustainability and competitiveness. This requires prioritising and reducing spending, while strengthening revenue collection and investments.

“Croatia should enable investment by reducing bureaucracy and economic dominance of the state and state-owned enterprises to establish more robust and sustainable growth over the medium-term period,” the World Bank said in the statement.

Mamta Murthi, World Bank regional director for Central Europe and the Baltic Countries, agreed.

“The government is facing a very challenging task of having to tame public debt growth and reduce public expenditures, while at the same time trying to protect the vulnerable. This is never easy, especially as the results of reforms on economic growth and competitiveness take several years to have full effect,” she said during a recent visit to Zagreb.

“Sustaining and pushing forward with the reform efforts to restore macro stability, but equally promote sustainable growth and employment, is a priority.”

The article Croatia Debt Worries EU, Experts appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By IRIN

On 16 January, the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) army (FARDC) launched an operation in the eastern Kivu region of Beni to neutralize the Islamic Alliance of Democratic Forces (ADF-NALU) militia, whose prominence has been growing amid fears of its links with global terrorist movements. The FARDC offensive, dubbed ‘Sokola’, meaning to “clean out” in the Lingala language, follows the successful November routing out of the M23 militia after a joint UN-FARDC exercise.

“The ADF is not strong like M23. They don’t enjoy foreign support like M23 did. We are going to defeat them. They must heed the directive by President Kabila for them to disarm and participate in DDR [disarmament, demobilization and reintegration]. Otherwise, if they don’t, they are going to face the consequences,” Lambert Mende, the DRC government spokesperson, told IRIN.

In this briefing, IRIN offers insight into the ADF-NALU, examines the threat they pose and highlights analysts’ thoughts on how tackle them.

Who are the ADF-NALU?

ADF-NALU comprises some 800-1,400 combatants, without including the women and children in its ranks. Based in the northwestern Rwenzori Mountain region, along the border with Uganda, the militia is a “tightly controlled organization”, subsisting on illegal logging and gold mining as well as a “network of car and motorcycle taxis operating between Butembo, Beni and Oicha”, and “money transfers from London, Kenya and Uganda, which are collected through Congolese intermediaries in Beni and Butembo”, according to a UN Group of Experts report. Butembo, Beni and Oicha are in North Kivu Province.

The group arrived from Uganda in 1995. Attempts at neutralizing ADF-NALU in 2005 and in 2010 were unsuccessful. “This Congolese-Ugandan armed group has shown remarkable resilience attributable to its geostrategic position, its successful integration into the cross-border economy and corruption in the security forces,” explained the International Crisis Group (ICG) in a 2012 report.

ADF-NALU has several training camps in eastern DRC and equipment such as mortars, machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, according to the UN experts report. The militia has been boosting its numbers through recruitment and kidnappings. Between July 2010 and November 2013, Beni’s civil society registered 660 abductions by ADF-NALU, 382 of which occurred in 2013 alone. Recently, MONUSCO helicopters on a reconnaissance mission were shot at by the militia, civil society alleged.

What threat does ADF-NALU pose?

Besides its growing military strength, ADF-NALU is seen as a potentially destabilizing force in the larger Great Lakes sub-region due to its suspected radical Islamist links. The Ugandan government has long claimed that the group has connections to Al-Qaeda and the Somali militant group Al-Shabab.

In an Al Jazeera opinion piece, journalist Caroline Hellyer notes that while “the majority of Muslims in Congo and Uganda are not politicized… the ADF-NALU leadership who are located in the UK, Congo, Kenya and Sudan are adherents of a particularly radicalized Tablighi Islamic ideology that caused them to clash with other Tablighis in Kampala.” Indeed, the militia has cells beyond Uganda and DRC, and previous attempts at amnesty and disarmament talks have stalled due to an inability to get their various leaderships together, adds the blog Digitaldjeli, which is hosted by Hellyer.

The militia draws its membership from countries such as Uganda, Tanzania and Somalia, according to a senior officer with the UN Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO), who cited the insecurity in Somalia and the late 2013 terror attack in Kenya. “We cannot afford to let them grow without risking destabilizing the region,” warned the officer.

ADF-NALU’s leader Jamil Mukulu, a Christian convert to Islam, has been targeted by UN sanctions since 2011.

Indeed, ADF-NALU is a hybrid group, not only due to its members’ mixed origins but also because they are the product of about 20 years of cross-border living, operating as guerrillas and often blurring the lines between the criminal, the rebel, the citizen, the soldier and the state, adds Digitaldjeli.

The militia is also on the move. In December 2013, a lot of east-to-west movement was witnessed, with ADF-NALU dependants – women and children – moving with guards and hiding among the local population, said Teddy Kataliko, a civil society leader in Beni. Militia movements towards Ituri, Orientale Province’s capital, were also recorded.

ADF-NALU could also resort to asymmetrical attacks, ambushing soft targets, as they have good intelligence within the population, “and they know where and when to find this or that person”, said the MONUSCO officer.

In July 2013, ADF-NALU engaged in a looting campaign in the area of Kamango, a town in North Kivu close to the Ugandan border, stealing from the general hospital, health centres and pharmacies to boost supplies in preparation for attacks, noted Kataliko. Moreover, while thousands of rebels, from various groups, in eastern DRC surrendered after M23’s defeat, almost none from ADF-NALU did, according to the UN.

Did ADF-NALU assassinate Col Mamadou Ndala ?

On 2 January, Col Mamadou Ndala, a popular and well-respected officer who led FARDC’s successful offensive against the M23 rebellion and went on to take charge of the operation against ADF-NALU, was killed in an ambush on the road between Boikene and Mavivi in North Kivu province.

“With the death of Mamadou [Ndala], the hunt against armed groups is threatened, and with it, peace in eastern DRC,” said Fidel Bafilemba, a researcher with the Enough Project.

DRC Government spokesman Lambert Mende at first blamed ADF-NALU for the killing, which was carried out using a rocket propelled grenade. He later announced that several army officers had been arrested in connection with the killing, among them the army commander in Beni, Lt Titu Bizuru.

In a detailed analysis of the ambush published in Jeune Afrique, military analyst Laurent Touchard said the evidence was inconclusive.

“Even if the theory of an internal settling of scores within FARDC appears most likely, the possibility that ADF-NALU, or M23 dissidents were involved should not be totally discounted. They are not mutually exclusive: is the hypothesis of rebels somehow manipulated and helped by senior figures in FARDC totally absurd?”

“That is where the only certainty in this affair lies: those who killed Mamadou Ndala benefited from accomplices within the security forces,” he added.

Mamadou was posthumously promoted to general.

How should ADF-NALU be tackled?

According to the ICG, “before considering any further military action against the ADF -NALU, it would be wise to separate fiction from fact and instead pursue a course of weakening its socio-economic base while at the same time offering a demobilization and reintegration programme to its combatants.”

Journalist Darren Olivier concurs, noting in Hellyer’s Al Jazeera piece that the group’s strong community and foreign connections, warlord backing, and alliances with other militias in the region mean a clear counterinsurgency strategy will be vital: “The question is how do you get this population on your side.”

ADF-NALU collaborates with various local armed groups and is especially well integrated within the Muslim population.

Islam’s role in peace building in the DRC must be recognized, adds the Digitaldjeli blog. “Indeed, only since the assassination of Colonel Mamadou have many people become aware that Congo’s national hero was a Muslim. This is another reason why he was the perfect man for the job of tackling the ADF-NALU and why his death is a massive blow to the wider community of Beni, particularly the large Muslim community.”

With ADF-NALU accused of enticing young people with gifts such as new bicycles and cash in an impoverished region whose residents feel neglected by Kinshasa, the sustained presence of the state in the group’s strongholds is necessary, say analysts. “Too many militaries, especially the FARDC, will come in, handle fighting, declare their victory and go home. At this point the rebels move back in again… and the villagers are punished as a whole,” noted Olivier.

According to Josaphat Musamba Bussy, a Bukavu-based researcher, any military strategy must combine both air and ground forces using specialized commandos. But initially, added Bussy, FARDC should identify ADF-NALU’s Congolese networks, and infiltrate and stop them with the help of local and Ugandan intelligence services.

What has been the progress so far?

FARDC claims to have dislodged ADF-NALU from several locations. According to a MONUSCO officer, the army had successfully taken over the Mwalika camp, where an important ADF-NALU training site is located. MONUSCO is supporting the army logistically and with intelligence.

“The operation against ADF-NALU is going on very well. They are escaping their headquarters [in Mamundioma] near Beni. They are moving to Orientale Province [in the northeast]. We are organized, moving forward and ready to stop them,” said Mende, the DRC government spokesperson.

But there are fears of civilian casualties. Commenting on the fate of ADF-NALU collaborators, a FARDC army major stated, “Those who are with them are considered enemies.”

“We are providing and sharing intelligence information with our Congolese counterparts for the demise of ADF-NALU,” Gen Edward Katumba Wamala, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces, told IRIN. “We have deployed troops in our borders to ensure no ADF-NALU escapees enter or cross into our country. Our personnel will capture the fleeing rebels.”

The Ugandan government says that it is ready for dialogue. “We have always had our doors open. We have never seen the ADF-NALU. If they want to talk to us, we are always here,” Crispus Kiyonga, Uganda’s Minister for Defence, told IRIN. In July 2013, Kiyonga told Uganda’s parliament that the government agrees, “in principle”, to initiate talks with ADF-NALU if the group so wishes.

The article ADF-NALU Militia In DR Congo – Profile appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By RFE RL

(RFE/RL) — Three Iranian-Turkish trade accords have been signed during a visit to Tehran by Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Erdogan said the deals signed on January 29 will help Turkey import more oil and natural gas from Iran.

Bilateral trade last year stood at $13.5 billion.

Erdogan’s visit has been portrayed as a mission to mend ties between the neighboring states, whose governments have been bitterly split over the Syrian conflict.

Iran is a leading backer of President Bashar al-Assad’s government, while Turkey has been seeking to support moderate rebel groups trying to overthrow the regime.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry said Tehran’s ties with Turkey were entering a “new phase,” and officials were hopeful the trend will continue.

Erdogan was expected to hold talks with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, President Hassan Rohani, and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Marzihe Afkham said Rohani was expected to visit Turkey in the coming months.

The article Trade Deals Signed During Turkish PM’s Iran Visit appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By EU-Asia Centre

By Wei Shen

France occupies a special position in China’s foreign policy, due to two important historical events. First, former Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders like Zhou Enlai, Deng Xiaoping and Chen Yi, were among the 4,000 young Chinese who studied in France from 1912 to 1927. This page of history has left a strong hallmark on the CCP. Second, fifty years ago, amid the tension of the Cold War, France was the first major power in the West to have full diplomatic relations with China.

In the past five decades, the bilateral relationship has grown fast with joint statements on ‘comprehensive partnership’ in 1997 and ‘strategic partnership’ in 2004, but not without experiencing ups and downs. Is France still the special partner for China as it once was? The 50th anniversary provides both countries a good occasion to reflect and renew Sino-France relations in a changing global order.

History

The relations between France and China started more than four hundred years ago with the arrival of French Jesuits in China who quickly became influential in the Qing court. By the 18th Century, China had already become fashionable in France, especially among the ruling classes. Under Louis XIV’s reign, the first ever Chinese-French dictionary was initiated by Acardio Huang, one of the first Chinese residents in France, and the personal interpreter to the ‘Sun King’. The French philosopher, Voltaire, was among the group of European Enlightenment philosophers who were intrigued by China. His sympathetic writings on China showed praise for Chinese civilisation, moral values and institutions. Chinese artistic and cultural influences were reflected in the Chinoiserie (a French word for describing ‘Chinese-esque’) movements in the various forms of decorative arts, interior designs and architecture in France and other European countries, for instance, the Trianon de Porcelaine in the Palace of Versailles. For Napoleon, China was a ‘sleeping giant’ who should be best kept asleep, otherwise, ‘when she awakes, the whole world will tremble’.

Charles de Gaulle also shared this fascination towards stating ‘China is not a nation or a nation-state, but fundamentally is a civilization, a very unique and very deep civilization’. President de Gaulle, pursuing his independent foreign policy, sought to build a ‘regular relationship’ with a ‘China as it is known’. In his view, China was a country with great potential, destined to be a global player with the transformative power for shaping the future, due to its size, civilisation and population.

Looking back, de Gaulle’s prediction on China’s future renaissance was truly visionary. Since 1964, France was the first country to start military exchanges, cooperation in the area of nuclear energy and initiate strategic partnership and dialogue. Franco-China bilateral trade was just around $100 million in 1964, now it has increased by 500 times, and is now worth more than $52 billion. Around 1,400 French firms are operating in China with a total of 4419 investment projects of over $12 billion. The French investment in China can be characterised by large bilateral contracts, especially in the aviation and nuclear fields, for instance, the China’s civil nuclear power plant in Daya Bay and purchase of Airbus planes. Thanks to China’s growing wealth among its middle class, more Chinese can afford to study or spend their holidays in France. With around 38,000 students in France, China is edging to overtake Morocco as the largest source of international students. Compared to the 10,000 student visas issued in 2012, the number of Chinese tourists in France has already passed 1.4 million, making France the number one tourist destination in Europe for cash-rich Chinese, with an average spending of €1,600 in France.

Problems

How to handle the relations with China has become a challenge for every French president in the modern era. In 1973, Georges Pompidou became the first French and Western head of state to visit China. The presidency under François Mitterrand saw China’s human rights record and the 1989 Tiananmen student protest dominating the bilateral relations. Mitterrand was one of the most outspoken critics on China’s human rights record and pushed for the European arms embargo on China. During the early 90s, Sino-France relations again suffered from the sale of French weapons to Taiwan, which resulted in the temporary closure of the French Consulate in Guangzhou. This tension later calmed down when France reiterated its One China Policy and prohibited the arms trade.

During the two presidencies of Jacques Chirac, China and France entered a ‘honeymoon period’, and saw rapidly growing political, economic and cultural links. During the Year of China in France in 2004, the Eiffel Tower was illuminated in red to celebrate China’s Spring Festival, and the following year of France in China saw France’s air force flew over the Great Wall leaving their emblematic tricolour contrails in Beijing’s sky. Contrary to Chirac’s pro-Asia foreign policy, Nicolas Sarkozy’s approach to China was more paradoxical. In 2008, China’s political goodwill gesture in bringing the Beijing Olympic Torch relay to Paris was met with massive pro-Tibet demonstrations, and the chaos in Paris consequently led to massive protests and boycott against French products in China. The fragile bilateral relations were further impacted by Sarkozy’s decision to meet the Dalai Lama which resulted in the cancellation of the EU-China Summit at the last minute.

Future

In Confucius words, the age of 50 is the moment to understand the destiny and make necessary changes or adaptations. It is also true for the relations between China and Europe. Being permanent members of UN Security Council, China and France are global players and shoulder major responsibilities. But there are still great challenges ahead. Firstly, the trade deficit is increasing though the growth of French exports to China outpaces China’s exports to France by three times. According to the French Government, there is a staggering trade deficit of nearly $36 billion in 2011. This economic pressure is also reflected in public opinion. The latest PewResearch Global Attitudes Project’s result in 2013 shows that only 42% of French interviewees hold a favourable view of China, 5% less than in 2006’s survey. It is not surprising that François Hollande has made economic diplomacy as his priority for foreign policy, including relations with China. During his 2013 visit to China, Hollande was accompanied by an entourage of French businessmen and secured several big contracts. Though being still modest, Chinese outward investment is also catching up, currently estimated at $1.8 billion by the Chinese Government, it has created over 9,000 jobs France.

The Golden Jubilee of Sino-France Relations reminds us the important historical significance of this bilateral relation, but can we still call this relationship a privileged one? France is still one of the few handful countries to have a vice-ministerial level ambassador in Paris, an indicator of diplomatic importance. The 38,000 students at Alliance Française and 10,000 secondary and university students studying French in China and 32,000 French secondary school students studying Chinese (8 times as number in 2001) once again confirm the mutual interests among the younger population in both countries.

China is no long a developing country as it was fifty years ago. As the world’s second largest economy, its foreign policy interests have far stretched to faraway places in Africa and Latin America. While the US and Asia will remain the foci of China’s foreign policy, there is still great potential for France-China relations, especially taking account of France’s existing influence in the European Union and Africa. Though cooperation and competition will undoubtedly be a re-occurring theme in economic and trade relations, both France and China would need to renew the strategic partnership by exploiting economic complementarities especially in areas like energy, aviation, nuclear, tourism, financial services, environmental protection and sustainable urbanisation. Last but not least, both parties must intensify efforts for people-to-people exchange and dialogues between civil societies, to reduce prejudices and enhance mutual understanding.

Professor Wei SHEN is Vice-President at the EU-Asia Centre and Jean Monnet Chair Professor in EU-China Relations & Associate Dean for China at the ESSCA School of Management, Angers, France.

The article France-China Relations: From ‘Special’ To ‘Strategic’? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By EU-Asia Centre

Catherine Ashton held talks on 27 January with Yang Jiechi, state councillor responsible for foreign policy. This was the fourth session of the EU-China Strategic Dialogue which should have taken place in 2013 but was postponed due to the leadership changes. Yang, the former foreign minister, was using the visit to prepare the landmark visit of President Xi Jinping to the EU on 31 March. Apart from Ashton, Yang met with President van Rompuy who described current developments in the EU and his ideas for the Xi visit.

EU officials said the talks had been productive. The focus was on next steps to implement the EU-China 2020 Agenda that was agreed at the November summit in Beijing. Ashton said that both sides shared similar priorities including promoting peace and security, sustainable green growth, innovation, and an inclusive social model. She welcomed the opening of negotiations on a bilateral investment treaty.

The EU wanted to deepen cooperation on anti-piracy, international development, climate change, the rule of law and human rights. On the foreign policy front the two sides had been cooperating on a range of issues including Iran, Syria, and Sudan. Ashton thanked China for supporting her in the E3+3 negotiations with Iran and said it was ‘an extremely good example of not only support but the critical and vital importance of the engagement of China.’

The EU had called on China (and Japan) to exercise restraint in their activities in the East China Sea. There had also been useful discussions on Afghanistan, North Korea and Central Asia. Both sides looked forward to a successful Asia-Europe meeting (ASEM) in Italy in October. Finally, Ashton said the EU was ‘committed […] to strengthening its relationship with China’.

The article EU-China Strategic Dialogue appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Eurasia Review

The judicial reform process in Ecuador poses a very serious threat to the country’s judicial independence, Human Rights Watch said today in a letter to Gustavo Jalkh, president of the Council of the Judiciary.

Since 2011, a judicial council made up almost entirely of former members of the administration of President Rafael Correa has appointed and removed hundreds of judges through highly questionable methods.

“The government’s reform of Ecuador’s judiciary should have resulted in a stronger and more independent judicial system,” said José Miguel Vivanco, Americas director at Human Rights Watch. “So far, the reform is doing precisely the opposite.”

The Correa administration, acting on a 2011 referendum mandating reform of the constitution, initiated an ambitious judicial reform process to address chronic problems in Ecuador’s judiciary, including corruption, inefficiency, and political influence.

The Council of the Judiciary was established in January 2013. Previously, a transitional council was in charge of overseeing the reform.

The transitional council and the current Council of the Judiciary have appointed 1,430 judges, suspended 273, and removed 380 between July 2011, when the justice reform began, and November 2013, according to official information from the council. During this time, the total number of judges in office increased from 1,117 to 1,708.

In the majority of removals, the councils considered that the judges had violated a vaguely worded article in the Organic Code of the Judicial Function, a law governing the judiciary, that forbids judicial officials to act with “criminal intent, evident negligence or inexcusable error.”

Under international legal standards, however, judges may only be suspended or removed from their position “for reasons of incapacity or behaviour that renders them unfit to discharge their duties.” The United Nations special rapporteur on the independence of judges and lawyers has specifically said that judges should not be removed from office for errors in judicial decisions.

In addition, in 2012, the transitional council appointed all 21 members of Ecuador’s highest court, the National Court of Justice, as well as all its substitute judges (suplentes), through mechanisms that lack the objectivity and transparency required under international standards on judicial independence. All these judges remain in office.

The government created an international body made up of members from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Guatemala, Mexico, and Spain to evaluate the judicial reform process. In a final report issued in December 2012, the government-invited observers criticized the article used to fire judges, as well as the selection of members of the National Court of Justice.

The Council of the Judiciary, as a valuable part of this process, has inaugurated over 30 new buildings to house courts and judicial offices all over the country. It has also developed an electronic system to speed up judicial cases and trained thousands of justice officials. According to official sources, the number of judges per 100,000 people increased from 4.5 to 10 during this time.

Ecuador is party to human rights conventions—including the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and the American Convention on Human Rights—that require it to safeguard the independence and impartiality of its judiciary. These obligations are not being met by the current reform process, Human Rights Watch said.

It is critically important for justice and the rule of law for the Council of the Judiciary to adopt measures to ensure that the Ecuadorian government complies with international standards on judicial independence, Human Rights Watch said. Specifically, it should:

• Implement recommendations regarding the appointment and removal of judges made by government-appointed international observers; and

• Work with the Foreign Affairs Ministry to invite the UN special rapporteur on the independence of judges and lawyers to visit the country to assess judicial independence in Ecuador.

“Improving the physical infrastructure of the justice system is a worthwhile investment, but far more important than building new courthouses is ensuring the strength and independence of the institution itself,” Vivanco said.

The article Ecuador Needs To Ensure Judicial Independence, Says HRW appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Eurasia Review

Reporters Without Borders said Wednesday it is calling on the authorities to stop holding Uyghur academic and citizen-journalist Ilham Tohti incommunicado.

Tohti’s family has received no news of him since his arrest at his Beijing home on 15 January. No one knows for sure, but he may have been secretly transferred to a prison in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.

“The public security bureau in Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang, has reported online that Ilham Tohti is accused of inciting separatism but no police station has been able to tell his family where he is being held,” said Benjamin Ismaïl, the head of the Reporters Without Borders Asia-Pacific desk.

“We deplore the use of methods that are illegal under both Chinese law and international standards. We call on the authorities to reveal where they are holding Tohti and to allow his lawyer and his family to visit him.”

According to a report posted online on 25 January, the authorities accuse Tohti of heading a separatist group that advocates the use of violence to overthrow the Chinese government in Xinjiang and of using his Uygurbiz.com website to recruit followers.

The authorities also claim to suspect him of links with the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement, which wants an Islamic state in “Eastern Turkistan” (Xinjiang) and which the Chinese government regards as terrorist organization responsible for acts of violence.

The article China: Concerns Where Citizen-Journalist Ilham Tohti Is Being Held appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Trend News Agency

By Emil Ismayilov

BP, project operator for the development of the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli offshore fields block, has commissioned the new West Chirag platform, a source in the Azerbaijani oil and gas market told Trend today.

“The platform has already been commissioned, and oil production started there,” the source stressed.

The new platform was constructed in the framework of the Chirag oil project, which envisages an increase in oil production at ACG block.

The platform was installed at a depth of 170 meters between the already-running production platforms Chirag and Guneshli.

The Chirag Oil Project (COP) envisages an investment of $6 billion.

In total it is planned to produce over 300 million barrels of oil within the implementation of the project (by the end of the contract on Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli in 2024).

The contract for development of Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli large offshore field was signed in 1994. Shares are distributed as follows: BP (operator in Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli) – 35.78 per cent, Chevron – 11.27 per cent, Inpex – 10.96 per cent, AzACG – 11.65 per cent, Statoil – 8.56 per cent, Exxon – 8 per cent, TPAO – 6.75 per cent, Itochu – 4.3 per cent and ONGC – 2.72 per cent.

The article BP Begins Production At New Oil Platform In Azerbaijan’s Largest Field appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Maan

An Israeli drone crashed in the southern Gaza Strip on Wednesday near the border with Israel, witnesses said.

Eyewitnesses told Ma’an that the drone fell east of the city of Rafah.

Israeli forces quickly entered Gaza and moved the drone to the Israeli side of the border, witnesses said.

An Israeli army spokesman said he was unfamiliar with the incident.

Israeli military drones regularly conduct reconnaissance missions over Gaza even after a ceasefire that ended Operation Pillar of Defense, a 2012 Israeli military offensive on the coastal territory which left 170 Palestinians and six Israelis dead.

The article Israeli Drone Crashes In Gaza Near Border appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By JTW

By Öznur Keleş

The Turkish Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee held an emergency meeting on Tuesday. The committee decided on a very sharp rise in interest rates in order to defend the country’s embattled currency.

The recent and rapid rise in the exchange rate was creating serious risks for the Turkish economy. The Central Bank chose to intervene in the exchange rate with foreign exchange sales, a tactic not used for about two years. Unfortunately, it did not result in the success desired. Thus, the Bank used the tool of interest rate in the direction of expectations in the market
.
The markets had been expecting the Central Bank to raise interest rates for a while, as a response to the decline in the lira. However, this increase was far higher than expectations.

The Committee increased the one-week repo rate to 10 percent from 4.5 percent, and the overnight lending rate to 12 percent from 7.75 percent. In addition, it increased the overnight borrowing rate to 8 percent from 3.5 percent.

Following the shock decision, the U.S. dollar decreased to 2.18 lira from 2.25. That is, the lira, which has lost about a third of its value against the dollar since May, strengthened against the dollar after having hit a record low of 2.3900 early on Monday.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble stated that “Turkey would bring its economic problems under control.” Also, Işık University Professor Dr. Murta Ferman made a statement about the decision of the Central Bank on interest rate. Ferman said that “the Central Bank was not using the interest rate tool due to the strict attitude of the political authority against the interest rate. I think that the management of the Bank has convinced the political authority within the last one week.” Also, Ferman has underlined the fact that “political instability in Turkey still stands as the most complex element of risk.” He continued, “the decision of the Central Bank does not solve the medium-long term problems, but it would only reinforce the ground.”

In addition, David Simmonds, the head of currency and emerging-markets strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London, said that “the immediate knee-jerk reaction last night was that the Central Bank of Turkey had in some sense passed an important test. The broader perspective that having to raise rates to defend your currency is ultimately a very tough place fundamentally to be, so broader macro pressures persist.”

After compensating for the Turkish lira’s 15-days of losses against the dollar, domestic markets have focused on the FED’s Wednesday evening decision. Whenever the FED decides to cut bond purchases the local currencies for developing countries (such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey) have depreciated against the dollar. Thus, India’s central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates on Tuesday.

The article Turkey’s Central Bank Sharply Raises Interest Rates – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By JTW

By Gulay Mutlu

Central Asia, the longtime focus area for great powers within the international system, has managed to maintain its significance. Although in the last three years the Middle East and the Arab Spring seem to have occupied the agenda of international actors, in fact these actors had never given up chasing Central Asian energy and energy routes, nor fighting terrorism in Afghanistan. This year is a turning point for the region in terms of security and energy. Traditionally, great powers have been the region’s primary actors. After 2014, however, there will be a big change of balance. Why?

During the 19th century, the underground rivalry between Tsarist Russia and Great Britain, the “Great Game”, transfixed our attention on the region. After the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917, the “New Great Game” has appeared. However, there is a big difference between the two Great Games. In the first, the two great powers competed for India’s resources and to reach its warm waters. The latter, which has drawn in the U.S. and China and not Britain, in Karl Mayer’s and Shareen Brysac’s words, is over “pipelines, tanker routes, oil and gas consortiums, and the signed contracts”

It is still up for debate whether there is a New Great Game. For some experts like Richard Weitz, “Central Asia does not represent the most important geographic region for any external power (…).”[1] So there are no rivals; on the contrary, there is cooperation between great powers in the region. Another view contends that the New Great Game is continuing in terms of energy resources competition. Russia, which still dominates the pipeline routes in the region, sells Central Asian gas to European markets—though it buys it at very low prices. On the other hand, China is looking for its future energy supply, since its consumption is gradually increasing. It can be said that China has similar concerns about the region’s energy resources. However, the objectives of the U.S. are somewhat different from those countries. Its main target after the 9/11 attacks has been to fight terrorism by invading Afghanistan with its allies. That mission was completed after death of Osama bin Laden in 2012. Sourcing energy from the Caspian Sea basin is a minor aim for the U.S. However, during this period the U.S. has continued to promote market economics and democracy in Central Asia and funnel development assistance towards regional countries. Besides the discussion of the Great Games, the main question is what will happen in Central Asia after the withdrawal of the U.S. and NATO from Afghanistan, as Central Asian countries have been good partners for the NATO mission in Afghanistan. They also have the same concerns about the Taliban, terrorism, and extremism in Afghanistan.

Central Asian countries’ position

Whether the New Great Game is a still valid concept or not, when we look at Central Asia we see that regional countries have been considered “secondary actors” in the competition between great powers. It is a mistake to call or treat them as secondary actors since their position is highly critical for regional stability. And their positions determine the balance among the great powers as well as among each other. For example, during the U.S. War on Terror in Afghanistan, Central Asian states took a position against terror, and like Russia, they kept silent about the war, which means that they supported the U.S. Although Russia does not want to the U.S. to be involved in Central Asia, it remained silent, sometimes even giving support to the U.S. and the NATO alliance.

This year Central Asian states will celebrate their 23th anniversary of independence. Most of them have gradually strengthened economically and have played roles in the international arena. For instance, Kazakhstan chaired the OSCE in 2010. They are also involved in regional and international organizations. They act with the great powers and they take initiative on regional and international problems. At the end of the day, Central Asian countries act as individual actors in the international arena. Although there are still big powers like Russia, the U.S., and China, today Central Asian countries are no longer secondary actors in the region.

In the last decade Russia-China relations have improved. And they try to balance each other in Central Asia. For example, both countries are starting new initiatives with the Central Asian countries. China has launched a Central Asia-China pipeline project and increased its economic relations with the countries. Russia is planning to enlarge its Customs Union (for Eurasia), taking in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. This year, with the withdrawal of the NATO alliance from Afghanistan, the U.S. has become a limited but still an actor in the region. So the stability and the security of the region will be first issue on the regional agenda and the Central Asian countries will be the main actors.

To sum up, the term “Great Game” has been used to refer to the last centuries’ competition of the great powers within the Central Asia. However, in the coming period, the region’s new premier actors—Central Asia and Afghanistan—are ready to decide for their future.

[1] Richard Weitz, “Averting a New Great Game in Central Asia”

The article Will It Be A Turning Point For Central Asia? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.