By VOR

An agreement intended to help resolve the crisis in Ukraine is expected to be initialed at the Ukrainian presidential administration headquarters at noon (2 pm Moscow time, 10 am GMT) on Friday, the presidential press service has reported.

Negotiations between Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, opposition leaders, European Union and Russian representatives have been completed, it said.

The negotiations that lasted 8 hours involved opposition leaders Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Oleh Tyahnybok and Vitali Klitschko, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski and Russian Human Rights Ombudsman Vladimir Lukin.

The article Ukraine Agreement On Crisis? appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Ria Novosti

A top Russian official sounded a bullish note Friday on the underperforming economy, predicting a return to robust growth toward the middle of this year.

Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach said at a conference in Siberia’s Altai region that the Russian economy was expected to pull out of its current stagnation in the second and third quarters.

According to government estimates, the economy is set to expand by around 1 percent in the first three months of 2014 amid weakened consumer spending and investment and constrained demand for oil and natural gas.

“There will be no strong pace with the existing trends and rules of the game. Nonetheless, the economy will start emerging from stagnation, both due to revival of external markets and because the sharp drop in investment at (state energy giant) Gazprom and other state companies will cease taking their toll,” Klepach said.

Klepach said about two-thirds of the drop in investments recorded in 2013 were accounted for by reduced investments at Gazprom.

“Now they are stabilizing, and from 2015 they should begin increasing somewhat,” he said.

Klepach also sounded a reassuring on the ruble, which has seen a dramatic slump in value in recent weeks. Major factors behind the sliding ruble this week were plans by the Economy Ministry to buy foreign currency for the Reserve Fund and the deepening political crisis in Ukraine.

The minister said the ruble was unlikely to crash, adding that inflation would not exceed the target for this year and was likely to stay at 5.3 percent, even in the wake of the currency devaluation.

“We see no factors or conditions for the ruble to crash,” Klepach told the Winter Grain Forum in the Altai region in southwest Siberia. “The ruble will keep weakening moderately.”

A weaker ruble means larger profits for Russian exporters and a windfall for the state budget, which is dependent on revenue from commodity exports.

The article Russia: Economy Seen Pulling Out Of Stagnation By 2014 appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Asian Correspondent

By Edwin Espejo

The Philippine Supreme Court, on Tuesday, voted to uphold the constitutionality of the Cybercrime Prevention Act of 2012. But it also took out several articles and provisions of the law that it found incongruous to the freedoms of expression and speech.

Among those taken out by the Supreme Court was the power given to the Department of Justice to restrict access to websites without prior court order. It also found unconstitutional the provision which grants government the right to collect real-time data without prior court order or a warrant.

The controversial law, opposed by journalists and rights groups, was passed in 2012 to arrest crimes committed in cyberspace, among them computer-related theft, system and data interferences, illegal access and interception of computer and cyberspace data, cybersquatting and cybersex, and a host of others. The law was questioned by rights groups and activists for some of its patently unconstitutional provisions, including fears it would be used to curtail press freedom.

The Supreme Court, finding the need to keep abreast of the rapidly changing information and technology medium for communication, has now also declared “computer system or other similar means that may be devised in the future” to be covered by libel laws, where before it only covered publication in print or broadcast on radio or television.

It likewise narrowed culpability of cyber libel to the first poster or originator of an article or content, with those making comments, sharing and liking immune to such charges.

While the law will boost the drive against anti-cyberspace crimes, opponents and critics said the Supreme Court failed to seize the opportunity to abolish one of the archaic penal crimes under Philippine Laws – the law on libel.

The Penal Code of the Philippines still considers libel a criminal offense, an edict the National Union of Journalist in the Philippines (NUJP) found not only antiquated but also an affront to the fundamental human right of freedom of speech and expression.

The NUJP, the country’s largest organization of journalists and media practitioners, has been campaigning for the decriminalization of libel in the Philippines.

In upholding the Cybercrime Prevention Act of 2012, the Supreme Court not only negated and ignored popular clamor from the media to abolish libel as a criminal offense, the highest magistrate of the land likewise upheld the penal provision on the law on cyberspace which increases penalties compared to what was already stated in the Philippine Revised Penal Code.

The NUJP called the Supreme Court decision a “half-inch forward but a century backward. By extending the reach of the antediluvian libel law into cyberspace, the Supreme Court has suddenly made a once infinite venue for expression into an arena of fear, a hunting ground for the petty and vindictive, the criminal and autocratic.”

“This sets the campaign for the decriminalization of libel at least two steps back,” the editorial of the Philippine Daily Inquirer echoed.

NUJP vowed to support moves to appeal the ruling.

In the Philippine setting, libel suits have been used to harass, intimidate and persecute members of the press critical of public figures, not to mention government officials and even mere functionaries.

As a member of the working press, I believe nobody should be sent to prison for exercising one’s right to freedom of expression nor any law should be passed to abridge the freedom of speech.

The Supreme Court scales of justice looked for balance on this one, but came up very short.

The article Philippines Anti-Cybercrime Law: 1 Step Forward, 2 Steps Back – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By IDSA

By Rupak Bhattacharjee

Bangladesh has been facing political turbulence for more than a year now. To press the demand for the installation of a non- partisan interim administration to supervise elections, the opposition parties have made the task of governance difficult for the Awami League (AL) through continued agitations, strikes and blockades.

The January 5 election has not found acceptance at the domestic and international levels as it does not help resolving the ongoing political standoff. In the absence of opposition parties, the AL has managed an easy victory winning nearly three fourth of total parliamentary seats. Sheikh Hasina claimed her party’s victory as “legitimate” because in some quarters questions were raised regarding the legality of the parliament.

Following the announcement of poll verdict, Hasina urged her arch rival Khaleda Zia to shun the path of violence and sever ties with anti-liberation forces like Jamaat-e-Islami. She has indicated her government’s willingness to sit for a dialogue with the opposition for conducting future elections. She said, “A solution can be reached on the next elections only through talks. For that, everyone will have to have restraints, tolerance and stop political violence of all sorts.”

The opposition boycott has undoubtedly undermined the credibility of the elections in which only 20 %– 30% voters turned up amid large-scale violence. It may be noted that in the February 1996 elections with Khaleda as the prime minister, which the then opposition party AL boycotted, the turnout was recorded a meagre 26%. It is an irony that the AL as the main opposition party had been spearheading a countrywide agitation demanding the establishment of a caretaker administration. In 1996, the question of legality was not raised as the parliament passed the Thirteenth Constitutional Amendment incorporating the provision of caretaker system. Some Bangladeshi political observers argue that the new parliament may be “controversial” from oppositions’ viewpoints since they stayed away from the elections by dubbing it “farcical” but in no way could be termed “illegal”. Iftekharuzzaman, Executive Director of Transparency International Bangladesh, has remarked, “Although the elections were constitutional and legal, it is questionable on a political and ethical perspective”.

A much needed resolution of the current political turmoil has eluded Bangladesh since the two major political formations refuse to budge from their stated positions. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) – led 18 party alliance fears that elections held under a partisan government could easily be manipulated. They believe that given Bangladesh’s distinct political culture and electoral history; only a non-partisan administration could ensure a free, fair and peaceful election.

The ruling AL has turned down the opposition demand calling it “unconstitutional” and “illogical”. The party leadership argues that the system has failed in the past. The caretaker provision was scrapped in June 2011 through Fifteenth Constitutional Amendment. The AL that suffered most under prolonged military rule perceives that the old power-bastion of civil-military bureaucratic clique would revisit Bangladesh taking advantage of the prevailing political uncertainty. Hasina said, “…..we amended the Constitution to make sure that those will be in power for whom people will caste their votes. We have sealed the scope of grabbing power illegally”.

Bangladesh has witnessed several bloody coups and revolts since 1975 that not only jolted the polity but also made political instability endemic to an over-populated and impoverished country. Against the backdrop of a similar messy state of affairs in 2007, the military intervened and installed a proxy civilian government which became highly controversial at the end due to its apparent political agenda.

Immediately after the assumption of office, the Hasina government had to confront a gory mutiny staged by a group of disgruntled Bangladesh Rifles personnel at their headquarters in February 2009. Another attempt made in December 2011, by a section of army officers affiliated to a radical Islamic outfit called Hizb-ut- Tahrir was foiled by the government forces. All these factors have made the AL skeptical about the armed forces – the key architect of the post-1975 Bangladesh polity.

The present AL government is different from the one that governed Bangladesh during 1996-2001. The party was voted to power in 1996 after spending long twenty one years in political wilderness. The fractured verdict of June 1996 elections did not encourage the party leadership to modify the aberrations of the successive military regimes. However, the landslide victory of the December 2008 elections emboldened Hasina to affect a few important changes in the polity and fully assert civilian supremacy. The Fifteenth Amendment has also made staging military coup treason. The incumbent chiefs of Army, Navy, Air Force and reformed Bangladesh Border Guards have been sworn not to interfere in politics.

Despite such efforts, political volatility persisted all along as both the major political parties – the AL and the BNP, engaged in a bitter struggle to attain power, have seldom tried to reach consensus on the country’s fundamental issues. The deep personal enmity between the two begums has further complicated the present political crisis.

The BNP has urged the government to arrange for dialogue. The AL says the BNP must snap ties with the Jamaat before engaging in negotiation. But Khaleda has made it clear that her party is not ready to discard its alliance partner at this stage. The AL suspects Khaleda’s latest call for dialogue is a ploy to buy time to regroup for launching fresh anti-government agitation and the party has not attached much importance to it. According to the local media reports, BNP’s decision to back off from tougher movement is basically aimed at ensuring the immediate release of detained party leaders rather than a genuine effort to engage in dialogue.

Both the government and opposition leaders made statements in favour of dialogue largely due to the pressure of the international community which wants a negotiated settlement of the vexed caretaker issue at the earliest. The uncompromising attitude of the two leaders is the main hurdle to initiate concrete steps for resolving the ongoing political impasse. Many Bangladeshis feel that it would take at least another year to reach an agreement.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India.

Originally published by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/PoliticalTurmoilinBangladeshLikelytoContinue_rbhattacharjee_190214

The article Political Turmoil In Bangladesh Likely To Continue – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By IPRIS

By Gerhard Seibert

The 24 January visit of Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou to São Tomé has definitely confirmed that the small archipelago is willing to maintain diplomatic relations with the Republic of China (Taiwan). It marked the second visit from a Taiwanese president since President Chen Shui- bian visited São Tomé in 2002.

This time the Taiwanese president brought a large delegation, including five ministers and several businessmen, with him. President Manuel Pinto da Costa welcomed the delegation at the local airport. The warm welcome demonstrates that President Pinto da Costa has changed his attitude towards Taiwan since his country has re-established commercial relations with the People’s Republic of China last November. Unlike Gambia, which cut diplomatic relations with Taiwan on 14 November 2013, after President Yahya Jammeh’s demands for allegedly US$ 10 million in cash had not been satisfied by Taipei, São Tomé will – along with Swaziland and Burkina Faso – remain one of Taiwan’s three allies in Africa.

During a press conference, President Ma Ying-jeou announced that technical teams from both countries would prepare a joint commission meeting scheduled for this March. He declared that his country’s bilateral cooperation would be subdivided into a public and private sector.

He indicated the construction of a new hospital as one of the future projects of state cooperation, while Taiwan’s private sector would look for investment opportunities in tourism. President Pinto da Costa, who stressed the importance of Taiwanese development assistance for his country and claimed São Tomé’s strategic advantage for private investments within a regional market of 340 million consumers, accepted his counterpart’s invitation to visit Taiwan.

President Manuel Pinto da Costa is São Tomé and Príncipe’s third democratically elected president since the collapse of the socialist one-party regime in 1991. He also was his country’s first president after independence (1975-1991). Since his election in 2011 there have been recurrent rumors about the possible re-establishment of diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China.

São Tomé first established relations with Beijing in 1975, but, six years after the country’s democratic transition, in 1997 President Miguel Trovoada (1991-2001) decided to establish full diplomatic relations with Taipei in exchange for US$ 15 million in annual development aid. In response, Beijing immediately cut all ties with São Tomé, leaving the archipelago with bilateral debts of US$ 17.3 million. China’s major investment in São Tomé during the 22-year period was in 1988 the construction of the Congress Palace (Palácio de Congressos) in the capital that accommodates the local 55-member National Assembly.

The Chinese-financed building is 8,300 square meters, including a conference hall for one thousand people and another three conference rooms. China also provided aid to São Tomé’s only hospital by sending medical doctors, who were very popular among the local population. However, following recommendations about financial advantages of relations with Taiwan by Blaise Compaoré, president of Burkina Faso, President Trovoada risked a break with Beijing. Initially the government of the Movement for the Liberation of São Tomé and Príncipe/ Social Democratic Party (Movimento de Libertação de São Tomé e Príncipe/Partido Social Democrata, MLSTP/ PSD) fiercely contested the decision before the National Assembly, where at the time the Independent Democratic Action (Acção Democrática Independente, ADI), the party close to Trovoada, maintained only 14 seats. Manuel Pinto da Costa, a frequent MLSTP/PSD leader since 1972, also rejected relations with Taipei. During five months government representatives and the president of the National Assembly refused to receive the Taiwanese diplomatic representatives, since they preferred to maintain relations with China.

Finally, however, the government and the majority of parliament succumbed to Taipei’s chequebook diplomacy. Nevertheless, the MLSTP/PSD, the former sole ruling party during the country’s socialist regime, has always maintained bilateral political ties with China’s Communist Party. Since 1997, a prime minister from the MLSTP/PSD has headed six of twelve São Toméan governments. They all promised to distinguish between party politics and government affairs, and maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan, the country’s principal bilateral donor.

Taiwan’s aid has carried a single condition: recognition of Taiwan as the government of China. Miguel Trovoada’s successor, President Fradique de Menezes (2001-2011), paid regular visits to Taipei and, in his speeches before the United Nations General Assembly, repeatedly demanded that Taiwan be readmitted to the organizations of the United Nations during his speeches at the Annual General Assembly in New York. Visible examples of Taipei’s bilateral assistance in São Tomé and Príncipe are the re-establishment of public street lightning in the capital, the building of the National Library, the office of the public prosecutor, the modernization of the National Stadium, the building of Côco-Côco market, the secondary school Manuela Margarido near Trindade, the reconstruction of the country’s only cinema, the construction of a thermal power plant in Santo Amaro with a capacity of 8.5MW, road construction and repair works, several housing projects, and a chicken farm.

Additionally, Taipei provides scholarships for São Toméan students at universities in Taiwan and regularly sends medical doctors to the archipelago. Taiwan’s successful malaria eradication programme in the islands, where the tropical infection was the principal mortality cause, has become an internationally known success story. Since 2005, when the campaign started, morbidity from malaria has fallen drastically, while mortality has almost disappeared in the two-island state.

Despite the many advantages of the relations with Taiwan, news about China’s huge investments in other African countries has not gone unnoticed in São Tomé. The archipelago is the only lusophone country that is not a member of the Forum for Economic and Trade Co-operation between China and Portuguese-Speaking Countries (Forum Macao), a platform established in 2003 by China for its co-operation with the other member states of the Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries (CPLP, established in 1996), namely Angola, Brazil, Cape Verde, Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique, Portugal and Timor-Leste. While Chinese trade and cooperation with the seven countries steadily increased, in São Tomé Chinese interests materialized only indirectly.

In 2006 the Chinese state oil company Sinopec acquired a 28.7% interest and the operatorship of Block 2 in the Joint Development Zone (JDZ), set up in 2001 by Nigeria and São Tomé and Príncipe. In 2009 Sinopec took over the Swiss oil company Addax, which had stakes in JDZ Block 1 (42.4%), Block 2 (14.3%), Block 3 (51%), and Block 4 (45.5%).

Through the takeover, Sinopec became the largest investor in the JDZ. However, due to disappointing results of exploration drillings Sinopec and Addax abandoned the Blocks 2-4 in 2012. For the same reason, last September Addax pulled out of JDZ Block 1. Chinese divestiture was a serious blow for the JDZ, coming on the heels of withdrawals by Exxon, Chevron and Total in recent years.

Consequently, São Tomé and Príncipe’s hopes of rapid oil wealth have not been realized. The country, which signed its first oil exploration contract with a foreign company in 1997, has not yet produced any oil, neither in the JDZ nor in its own Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

Unlike Trovoada and Menezes, President Pinto da Costa has never visited Taipei. In April 2012 President Pinto da Costa embarrassed the Taiwanese when he cancelled the scheduled visit of President Ma Ying-jeou to São Tomé; Pinto da Costa claimed the date overlapped with his planned visit to Cuba. However the visit to Havana was postponed, and only took place in June 2013.

In May 2012 it was then Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada who represented São Tomé at the inauguration of President Ma Ying-jeou, who had been re-elected for a second four- year term. However, Pinto da Costa has never publicly made any declaration about reestablishing diplomatic relations with Beijing either.

Nevertheless, since the MLSTP/PSD returned to power as part of a coalition government in December 2012, signs of rapprochement with China have increased. Pinto da Costa, who was elected president as an independent, no longer exercises any formal function in the MLSTP/PSD. However, he main- tains considerable influence in the party he chaired for a total of 25 years.

Last July, Beijing invited São Tomé to participate as an observer in the 4th Ministerial Conference of the Forum Macao. In early October, São Tomé’s National Oil Agency (ANP) signed a product-sharing contract (PSC) for Block 2 of its EEZ with the Hong Kong-registered private oil company Sinoangol. Sinoangol, established in 2010 by the Portugal-based Chinese businessman Zhan Yongqiao, was awarded the block after direct negotiations with the company that started in April 2013. Under the agreement, over a period of eight years Sinoangol will invest US$ 154 million in seismic studies, environmental studies and exploratory drillings.

Already in September 2013, another Chinese private investor opened a supermarket called Grande Mundo in São Tomé.

Then, in late October a government delegation headed by Foreign Minister Natália Umbelina, and including Paulo Jorge do Espírito Santo ‘Pajó‘, diplomatic assessor of President Pinto da Costa, and Henrique Pinto da Costa, the President’s brother and advisor of Prime Minister Gabriel Costa, paid an unannounced visit to China to negotiate a trade agreement.

However, Prime Minister Gabriel Costa categorically denied any intentions of his government to re-establish diplomatic ties with China.

The government delegation’s visit to Beijing occurred a few days before the 4th Ministerial Conference of the Forum Macao, held on 5 and 6 November 2013. At the conference in Macao, where São Tomé ́s Finance Minister Hélio Almeida participated as an observer, China promised soft loans of US$ 293 million to the seven lusophone member countries. São Tomé’s government has been interested in strengthening economic cooperation with China, since it desperately needs foreign investment and new external sources to finance: foreign donors kick in about 90% of the US$ 150 million national budget.

Taiwan explicitly tolerates trade between its diplomatic allies and China. However, Taipei clearly disliked it when Beijing formerly opened a trade mission accommodated in its former embassy building in São Tomé on 12 November 2013. São Tomé and Príncipe became the first of Taiwan’s three allies in Africa to host a Chinese trade mission. During the inauguration the local government tried to keep a low profile by sending only the Minister of Public Works and Natural Resources, Osvaldo Abreu, to the ceremony. Similarly, President Pinto da Costa did not attend the ceremony, but sent his diplomatic and economic advisers instead.

São Tomé’s government expects Beijing’s new trade mission will facilitate Chinese investment in the archipelago. Yet, the Chinese are not interested in resuming full diplomatic relations with São Tomé, because they do not want to disturb their own warming relations with Taipei. To appease the Taiwanese, on 15 November a government delegation headed by Prime Minister Gabriel Costa, and including Foreign Minister Natália Umbelina and several other government and party officials, left for an official two-day visit to Taipei to strengthen bilateral cooperation and attract private investment from Taiwan.

During the visit, Prime Minister Gabriel Costa handed over an official invitation by President Pinto da Costa for President Ma Ying-jeou to visit São Tomé. São Tomé and Príncipe would like to benefit from the economic strength of both Taiwan and China, while it continues maintaining diplomatic ties exclusively with Taipei.

About the author:
Gerhard Seibert, Center for International Studies (CEI) ISCTE- University Institute of Lisbon (ISCTE-IUL)

Source:
This article was published by IPRIS as IPRIS Viewpoints FEBRUARY 2014, which may be accessed here (PDF).

The article Sao Tome Simultaneously Strengthens Relations With Taipei And Re-Establishes Commercial Ties With Beijing – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Geopolitical Monitor

Alexander Jarvis is the chairman of Blackbridge Cross Borders (BCB), a position that has him leading and managing the Blackbridge team as well as associates in Europe, Central Asia, East Asia, Western Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

What is Blackbridge Cross Borders?

Blackbridge Cross Borders is a private, trans-global organization that focuses on structuring, advising, and facilitating arbitrages, foreign direct investment, and capital raising in companies and projects in Europe, Central Asia, East Asia, Western Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Why did you start Blackbridge Cross Borders?

It was established to take advantage of the global economic climate over the last turbulent five years, which provided abundant opportunities for an apolitical pragmatic organization like Blackbridge to gain market share.

Where are the clients you deal with and how do you help them add value?

Blackbridge has clients in the UK, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Russia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and China. I predominantly broker and facilitate outbound investments for Chinese investors globally. Strong cultural-linguistic understanding, patience, intelligence, and influential connections are what I bring to any deal table.

Please describe your experience doing business in China.

Mixed. Really it depends on who you invest your time with. Be aware that Chinese entrepreneurs were unleashed after many years of internal challenges, including the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. Now, after 30 years of economic liberalization, they are taking no prisoners in their relentless quest for wealth, power, and prosperity. You have to adapt fast.

How have you found dealing with Chinese investors?

I’ve enjoyed investing time with Chinese HNWI and UHNWIs, and hearing about how some of them struggled with a military or farming background before eventually transforming themselves into a business titan. Some advice if you want to work with the new Chinese super-rich: More gets said over baijiu and dinner than in the board room.

What are the challenges of doing business in China?

There are many cultural and historical clashes. As a British citizen, I’m constantly being reminded of the conflict with the Empire in the 18th century. Language is another key issue as many English words and sayings don’t translate well and cause confusion (get a very good translator or learn Mandarin, and have a Chinese business partner present at all dealings). The 8-hour lag between GMT and CST is also an issue, as is air pollution.

Which markets do you think offer the greatest potential in 2014?

There are several key global geopolitical and financial stress points in 2014, Q1. My main focus at Blackbridge: Real estate in the underdeveloped, poorer areas of London, which offer a very attractive low-risk investment for Chinese investors. The biggest driver is the current strength of the Chinese yuan (RMB), which means the cost of buying property assets in London is still 8% cheaper than it was six years ago. Many Chinese banks and UHNWI’s have vast RMB holdings and are actively looking to fund large projects. The opportunity is clear as a bell for those who can facilitate large arbitrage transactions in RMB and bring Chinese investors to the table. I’m also working on several riskier ventures like Argentina airlines, and agribusiness and real estate projects in Ukraine.

Why is Blackbridge so focused on the Asian market?

There are now an estimated 330 dollar billionaires and 1,020,000 millionaires in China alone, and this number will expand rapidly as China continues to deliver a GDP growth rate of over 7.5%. 1/3 of China’s super-rich have emigrated from mainland China, and they are investing everywhere.

Given the recent problems facing Ukraine and Argentina, why is Blackbridge moving forward with projects in these countries when some other investors only see risk?

Most investors make decisions watching mainstream news and don’t have local contacts in the countries and companies they are investing in. There are many opportunities to profit from currency fluctuations and buying and holding distressed assets that are a tenth of the value they were say 1-3 years ago.

Could you offer some advice to dealmakers wishing to build global networks?

Dealmakers should be students of geo-economic and geopolitical history since it makes them question the status quo and connect the dots faster. I’d also recommend building smaller, specialist teams that are more adaptable in taking action (it’s all about the first move).

How do you see economic reform unfolding in China over 2014-2015, and how will this process impact the country’s short-term growth prospects?

China has big issues in its financial structure, but the country will evolve and adapt. Putting time/dates on the reform process is like throwing darts at the wall.  I will highlight the fact that the Communist Party of China (CPC) has lifted 500 million people out of poverty in the past 35 years, a statistic that is not often acknowledged in the Western media. The Chinese population, 1/5 of humanity, has fully embraced capitalism in some of its rawest forms. So when you next hear that China will implode and is on an unsustainable path, remember that the Chinese people have gone through far worse hardships and have ultimately prevailed.

In your view, what are some of the greatest geopolitical challenges facing the world in 2014?

Three flashpoints: 1) A US and French intervention in Syria and the collateral damage this could cause globally. 2) Russia’s Putin becomes an interventionist in Ukraine and sends troops to disperse radical factions. 3) Tensions and mistakes in the East China Sea between China and Japan.

The article Interview With Blackbridge Cross Border’s Alexander Jarvis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Margaret Kimberley

Michael Dunn may be an easily identifiable outlier, but America clearly has a serious gun fixation and it results in the deaths of 11,000 people every year. Michael Dunn is the Jacksonville, Florida man who shot Jordan Davis to death in the so-called “loud music” case. It should have been called the “white person shoots black person just because” case.

It isn’t only white Americans like Dunn who kill with firearms, but the number of white men committing murder over seemingly strange reasons is increasing. It is easy to look at these individuals and label them as deviant, but these apples aren’t falling far from the nation’s tree.

The belief that white people ought to rule goes back to the earliest days of this country’s colonial history. The independent nation was no different as it relentlessly enforced an awful code of injustice based upon race. The Second Amendment of the Constitution, which guarantees a right to bear arms, was meant to give every white man the right to police the enslaved and indigenous populations.

Most white Americans are not aware of that particular historical fact but they surely believe in its intent more than 200 years later. There is no other explanation for “stand your ground” laws and “castle doctrines” except to give license for murder at a whim.

Yet like all madness, it cannot be isolated enough to punish only those meant to be victims. Two years ago, a white door to door salesman named Nick Rainey was shot dead by another white man, Kenneth Roop, in Cape Coral, Florida. Roop considered anyone who set foot on his property a trespasser whom he had the right to kill. Roop first shot Rainy in the shoulder and then stood over him and shot him in the back of the head. He told police that the fatal bullet was “for effect.” It wasn’t Roop’s first brush with the law. Seven years earlier he held a woman at gun point when she came to read his electric meter. He was charged in this case but was acquitted by a jury.

Florida has become a very dangerous place, where one white man recently shot and killed another in a movie theater because of an argument about texting and thrown popcorn. Not only the killer but other white Floridians have defended his act as being a reasonable use of force. The occasional death of a white person is apparently a small price to pay to keep black people in line.

Michael Dunn was born in the 20^th century but he is the heir of the Founding Fathers who wanted to enshrine the right to kill without impediment. If prevented from doing as they wanted, they bitterly complained of mistreatment just as Dunn is doing today.

“You know I was thinking about that today, I was like I’m the f*** victim here, I was the one who was victimized. I mean I don’t know how else to cut it, like they attacked me, I’m the victim. I’m the victor, but I was the victim too.”

That statement says it all. A 2011 study showed that white Americans felt themselves more likely to be discriminated against than blacks. Those results would be laughable if that mentality did not have such dire consequences for black people. There is no evidence, no data, which shows white disadvantage, quite the opposite. Surely few white people would switch places with black people, because like Dunn they know they are the victors but somehow they still find reasons to see themselves as victimized.

Every now and then an unfortunate white moviegoer or door to door salesman will be killed but the bulk of these cases involve gun loving white men who kill black people. In Texas, Brian Cloninger shot an 8-year old black child in the face. When asked why he said, “Because I wanted to.” In North Carolina Jasmine Thar was killed by James Blackwell who claimed that his gun went off by accident. Blackwell was never even arrested.

These cases give one a disturbing kind of precognition. We know that there are more Trayvon Martins and Jordan Davises and Renisha McBrides around the country. We don’t know the details or the names but history shows us that others will be added to the long list of victims.

The article White Men And Guns – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Robert Reich

If you ever wonder what’s fueling America’s staggering inequality, ponder Facebook’s acquisition of the mobile messaging company WhatsApp .

According to news reports today, Facebook has agreed to buy WhatsApp for $19 billion.

That’s the highest price paid for a startup in history. It’s $3 billion more than Facebook raised when it was first listed, and more than twice what Microsoft paid for Skype.

(To be precise, $12 billion of the $19 billion will be in the form of shares in Facebook, $4 billion will be in cash, and $3 billion in restricted stock to WhatsApp staff, which will vest in four years.)

Given that gargantuan amount, you might think Whatsapp is a big company. You’d be wrong. It has 55 employees, including its two young founders, Jan Koum and Brian Acton.

Whatsapp’s value doesn’t come from making anything. It doesn’t need a large organization to distribute its services or implement its strategy.

It value comes instead from two other things that require only a handful of people. First is its technology — a simple but powerful app that allows users to send and receive text, image, audio and video messages through the Internet.

The second is its network effect: The more people use it, the more other people want and need to use it in order to be connected. To that extent, it’s like Facebook — driven by connectivity.

Whatsapp’s worldwide usage has more than doubled in the past nine months, to 450 million people — and it’s growing by around a million users every day. On December 31, 2013, it handled 54 billion messages (making its service more popular than Twitter, now valued at about $30 billion.)

How does it make money? The first year of usage is free. After that, customers pay a small fee. At the scale it’s already achieved, even a small fee generates big bucks. And if it gets into advertising it could reach more eyeballs than any other medium in history. It already has a database that could be mined in ways that reveal huge amounts of information about a significant percentage of the world’s population.

The winners here are truly big winners. WhatsApp’s fifty-five employees are now enormously rich. Its two founders are now billionaires. And the partners of the venture capital firm that financed it have also reaped a fortune.

And the rest of us? We’re winners in the sense that we have an even more efficient way to connect with each other.

But we’re not getting more jobs.

In the emerging economy, there’s no longer any correlation between the size of a customer base and the number of employees necessary to serve them. In fact, the combination of digital technologies with huge network effects is pushing the ratio of employees to customers to new lows (WhatsApp’s 55 employees are all its 450 million customers need).

Meanwhile, the ranks of postal workers, call-center operators, telephone installers, the people who lay and service miles of cable, and the millions of other communication workers, are dwindling — just as retail workers are succumbing to Amazon, office clerks and secretaries to Microsoft, and librarians and encyclopedia editors to Google.

Productivity keeps growing, as do corporate profits. But jobs and wages are not growing. Unless we figure out how to bring all of them back into line – or spread the gains more widely – our economy cannot generate enough demand to sustain itself, and our society cannot maintain enough cohesion to keep us together.

The article Inequality, Productivity, And WhatsApp – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By TransConflict

By Gale Stokes

In 1984 Izetbegović published a more thorough analysis, Islam Between East and West, although because of the hostility of the communist regime it had to be published initially in North America.[24] This later book was not a pamphlet designed to be spread underground to encourage believers, but an extended set of comments he had already begun as early as 1946. The book was divided into two parts. Part I dealt with secular issues indicated by chapter titles such as “Creation and Evolution,” “Culture and Civilization,” “The Phenomenon of Art,” and “Morality.” Part II concerned religion, especially how Islam mediated between the materialist view of the world and the religious view. Izetbegović argued that there are three basic kinds of world views: the religious, the materialistic, and Islam. The materialist asks how do I live, the answer to which evolves through history, whereas the religious point of view asks why do I live, the answer to which is eternal and does not evolve. That is, the religious truths of Judaism, Christianity, and Islam are as appropriate for human beings today as they were when they were created. In the West there is a separation between the religious and the secular. The strength of Islam, Izetbegović believed, is that it “is a synthesis, a ‘third road’ between the two poles that mark all that is human.”[25] In 1983, partially because of this manuscript, and partially because of a regime campaign against “clerico-nationalism and Pan Islam in Bosnia-Hercegovina,” Izetbegović was arrested again and sentenced to fourteen years of prison. He was released in 1988 after serving, as he puts it, two thousand and seventy five days.

During the more than five years Izetbegović spent in jail in the 1980s, he managed to write more than 3,500 aphorisms, comments, and observations, which were later published as Notes from Prison (the original title in Bosnian was Moj bijeg u slobodu). These comments, written fifteen years after the Islamic Declaration, show how much continuity his thought retained. Even though he speaks often in these notes about religion, about his book Islam Between East and West, and about Islam, the overwhelming source of his comments are Western authors, not only the classics, such as Rousseau, Nietzsche, and the like, but even such relatively obscure observers such as Bruno Bettleheim and Alvin Toffler. His remarks reveal a highly intellectualized mind and reinforce his strong interest in ethics, morality, and good sense. He is tolerant (“God forgive me if I am wrong, but I respect a good Christian more than a bad Muslim”) and continues to admire the work ethic to which he ascribes the success of capitalism (“At the foundation of all the progress and power of the West in the last five centuries is the cult of work”). He again cites the EC as the model of cooperation for the Islamic world, and, presumably, for Yugoslavia, and reiterates his distrust of nationalism (“The true patriot is not the one who puts his homeland above others, but the one who acts so that it would be worthy of that praise. More than glory, he cares about the dignity of his homeland”). In important ways Izetbegović was a conservative, opposed to abortion and in favor of limiting women to the home and the family. And he is Muslim; but as the body of work accumulated over his adult life demonstrates, he was not a fundamentalist in the way we have come to think of them today. Indeed, he opposes ideological solutions: “The perfect man is not our aim, the perfect society even less. All we want are normal people and normal society. God, save us from any ‘perfection.’”[26]

In 1994, when a German reporter characterized Izetbegović as a “Muslim in the European tradition of tolerance, open to the entire world,” he replied, “My tolerance is not European but Islamic in origin. If I am tolerant, I am that first as a Muslim, and only then as a European…I value Europe, but I think that it has far too high an opinion of itself.” But it was not his intention to create an Islamic Republic. As he put it early in 1994 in a speech to the board of the political party he headed, “To be quite clear, I don’t want an Islamic Republic, but I want Islam to survive in this part of the world, whether anybody likes it or not [pa kome pravo kome krivo]…We don’t want to be assimilated…We want to stay what we are, and we can say that with pride. We illustrate a European Islam here, a modern Islam…Just maybe it is our mission to show Islam in a new and genuine light.” In the Bosnia he hoped for, therefore “no one will be persecuted for their religion, nationality or political conviction. That will be our fundamental law.”[27]

After Izetbegović became president of Bosnia in 1990, this body of work, especially the Islamic Declaration, became fodder for the Serbian propaganda mills. In the political struggles that preceded the outbreak of actual fighting in Bosnia, Bosnian Serbs in particular repeatedly used claims that Izetbegović was a fundamentalist Muslim bent on placing Serbs under Islamic jurisdiction. Serbian writers plucked sentences and phrases from the Islamic Declaration to “demonstrate” that Izetbegović was “Ayatollah Khomeyni’s right hand man,” and even, not too logically, that the Declaration was his Mein Kampf.[28] This campaign, however, smacked more of political mudslinging than of accuracy. Not that Izetbegović distanced himself from his Islamic views. Of the several factions that existed in the party he founded, the Party of Democratic Action (SDA), Izetbegović led the more religiously oriented wing. This led one of the early members of the SDA, Adil Zulfikarpašić, to form his own, more secular party.[29] Also, Izetbegović did some foolish things that played directly into the hands of his Serbian opponents, such as visiting Turkey in July 1991, where he asked that Bosnia join the Organization of Islamic Countries.[30] Izetbegović often spoke of creating a civil society in Bosnia, but when he spoke to Muslim audiences abroad, he liked to stress “the need for the Muslim nation in Bosnia to have its own state,” which is just what the Serbian nationalists accused him of trying to do.[31] In 1993 he received the King Faisal Foundation award for services to Islam and in the next year he visited Mecca.[32] On the other hand, it was Izetbegović, along with Kiro Gligorov of Macedonia, who led an effort to create a reorganized Yugoslavia along the lines of a civil state. This effort to counter Slobodan Milošević’s drive to Serbianize Yugoslavia failed, but it did provide a marked contrast to the intense nationalism of both Serbian and Croatian leaders in 1990 and 1991.

‘Independence and the fate of minorities’ is a component of the larger Scholars’ Initiative ‘Confronting Yugoslav Controversies’ (Second Edition), extracts of which will be published on TransConflict.com every Friday.

TransConflict is pleased to present the fourth part of a chapter of “Confronting the Yugoslav controversies – a scholars’ initiative”, entitled “Independence and the Fate of Minorities (1991-1992).”

Footnotes

24) Alija Izetbegović, Islam Between East and West (Indianapolis: American Trust Publications, 1984).

25) Alija Izetbegović, Izetbegović of Bosnia and Herzegovina: Notes From Prison, 1983-1988 (Westport: Praeger, 2002), 106, describing his earlier ideas in Islam Between East and West.

26) During his stay in prison, Izetbegović numbered his notes consecutively, but in the published book he divided them into subjects for individual chapters so that the numbering is no longer consecutive. Therefore, I give citations for the above quotes, in the order in which they appear, with the page number followed by the item number
on that page. Izetbegović, Notes From Prison, 32/1040; 71/1203; 203/2293; 79/1631; 195/712; 194/241; and 201/2013.

27) Alija Izetbegović, Izetbegović: Odabrani govori, pisma, izjave, intervjui (Zagreb: Prvo Muslimansko Dioničko Društvo Zagreb, 1995), 170, 39, 89.

28) These charges are taken from a Serbian website: http://www.srpska-mreza.com/librar/facts/alija.html, accessed 29 October 2004, but no longer available.

29) In fact, “Bosnian Moslems [sic] typically report not considering religious affiliation a significant part of personal or collective identity.” Scott Atran, “Genesis of Suicide Terrorism,” in The Best American Science and Nature Writing 2004, ed. Steven Pinker (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 2004), 9.

30) Laura Silber and Allan Little, Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation (New York: Penguin, 1997), 213. Silber and Little are probably referring to The Organization of the Islamic Conference, of which Bosnia and Hercegovina became an Observer (i.e., not a full member) in 1994.

31) Burg and Shoup, The War in Bosnia-Herzegovina, 67.

32) Izetbegović, Izetbegović, 101. Thanks to Husnija Kamberović for comments at this
point.

The article The Former Yugoslavia: Independence And Fate Of Minorities – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Central Asia Online

By Hasan Khan

Reported financial hardships afflicting the Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan could spell trouble for the militants, analysts say.

As an indication of how dire the funding problem is, vocativ.com cited an example of an Afghan insurgent who went to the Quetta shura to solicit money, and instead was told to ask his fellow villagers for support.

Analysts have speculated about the reasons for the problems and theorise that if the woes continue, the militants will lose what little grip they have left on their terror campaign.

Follow the Arab money

Analysts cite myriad reasons for the funding problems. Chief among them is that political turmoil in Arab lands has altered the priorities of Arab donors, said Prof. Dr. Attaullah, a Kabul-based Islamic law professor.

Arab sheikhs who pumped money to the Taliban even though their governments supported Hamid Karzai’s administration “now are donating to Egyptians, Iraqis and Syrians fighting against their own regimes,” Attaullah, who formerly recruited Arab fighters for a leading Afghan insurgent commander, said.

Lesser factors add to the funding woes

A number of other reasons are cutting into the funding, too.

One that is hard to measure is the 2011 killing of al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden, which is said to have demoralised insurgents, donors and potential recruits.

More tangibly, the recent departure of international aid agencies from eastern and south-eastern Afghanistan has deprived the Taliban of targets for extortion, Abdul Wakeel Attock, a former aide to governors of Nangarhar and Badakhshan provinces, said.

And drug money isn’t as easy to earn as it once was, Attock added. Government forces “are regularly … destroying the crop” and neighbouring states and international organisations that practice “zero tolerance” for drug trafficking have slowed the cash flow, he said.

Analysts also surmised that some insurgent leaders are apparently siphoning off money and materials meant to support foot soldiers.

Also, “donor fatigue” and diminishing fear among wealthy Afghans are shrinking the Taliban’s revenue stream, a Dubai-based Afghan businessman who asked to be called only Noorzai, said.

The majority of such people donated only out of “fear of being killed or kidnapped,” Noorzai told Central Asia Online. With that fear eroding, they have stopped.

The Afghan people, including the business community, are feeling more confidence in the government’s stability as the Afghan National Army takes the lead in managing national security, he said.

“Everybody understands the Taliban have no future in Afghanistan,” he said.

Ramifications of funding problems

Regardless of how any of those factors play into the bigger picture, one thing is clear. Without money, the insurgency will lose its effectiveness.

The vocativ.com report noted that the funding problems ultimately will mean the militants will run out of food and ammunition.

“No money means no new recruits and no capacity to finance attacks, [particularly] in major cities and urban centres,” Attaullah said.

The article Taliban Struggle With Shrinking Finances appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Eurasia Review

President Barack Obama met Friday morning at the White House with His Holiness the XIV Dalai Lama.

According to the White House, President Obama reiterated his strong support for the preservation of Tibet’s unique religious, cultural, and linguistic traditions and the protection of human rights for Tibetans in the People’s Republic of China.

Obama commended the Dalai Lama’s commitment to peace and nonviolence and expressed support for the Dalai Lama’s “Middle Way” approach.

In their meeting, Obama stressed that he encourages direct dialogue to resolve long-standing differences and that a dialogue that produces results would be positive for China and Tibetans. In this context, Obama reiterated the U.S. position that Tibet is part of the People’s Republic of China and that the United States does not support Tibet independence.

In response, the Dalai Lama stated that he is not seeking independence for Tibet and hopes that dialogue between his representatives and the Chinese government will resume.

President Obama and the Dalai Lama agreed on the importance of a positive and constructive relationship between the United States and China, according to the White House.

The article Obama Meets Dalai Lama, Ignores China’s Warnings appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Mike Whitney

“The repo market wasn’t just a part of the meltdown. It was the meltdown.”

– David Weidner, Wall Street Journal, May 29, 2013.

Ask your average guy-on-the-street ‘what caused the financial crisis’, and you’ll either get a blank stare followed by a shrug of the shoulders or a brusque, three-word answer: “The housing bubble”. Even people who follow the news closely are usually sketchy on the details. They might add something about subprime mortgages or Lehman Brothers, but not much more than that. Very few people seem to know that the crisis began in a shadowy part of the financial system called repo, which is short for repurchase agreement.  In 2008, repo was ground zero, the epicenter of the meltdown. That’s where the bank run took place that froze the credit markets and sent the financial system into freefall. Unfortunately, nothing has been done to fix the problems in repo, which means that we’re just as vulnerable today as we were five years ago when Lehman imploded and all hell broke loose.

Repo is a critical part of today’s financial architecture. It allows the banks to fund their long-term securities cheaply while giving lenders, like money markets, a place where they can park their money overnight and get a small return.  The entire repo market is roughly $4.5 trillion, although the more volatile tri-party repo market is around $1.6 trillion. (Note: That’s $1.6 trillion that’s rolled over every day.)

Repo works a lot like a pawn shop. You bring your rusty bike and your imitation Van Gogh “Starry Night” to Rosie’s E-Z-Pawn, and the guy with the gold earring behind the counter gives you 15 bucks in return.  That’s how repo works too, the only difference is that repo is a loan. The banks post collateral –mostly pools of mortgages (MBS) or US Treasuries– and get overnight loans from a cash-heavy lenders, like money markets, insurance companies or pension funds. Borrowers repay the loan with interest added to the original sum.

The problem that arose in 2008, and that will likely crop up in the future, was that the value of the underlying collateral (subprime MBS) was steadily downgraded forcing the banks to take steep haircuts. (which means they couldn’t borrow as much on their collateral)  The bigger the haircuts, the less money the banks had to fund their securities which forced them to sell assets to make up the difference.  When banks and other financial institutions deleverage quickly, asset prices plunge and capital is wiped out forcing the Fed to step in and backstop the system to prevent a full-blown meltdown.  And that’s exactly what the Fed did in 2008. It slashed rates to zero, set up myriad lending facilities and provided unlimited backing for both regulated and unregulated financial institutions. It was the biggest financial rescue operation of all time and it cost somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 to 13 trillion dollars in loans and other guarantees. Under the provisions of the Dodd Frank financial reforms, the Fed is forbidden from carrying out a similar bailout in the future, although you can bet-your-bippy that Yellen and Co. will bend the rules if there’s another catastrophe.

Fixing repo is not a left-right issue. Among the people who follow these things, there is general agreement about what needs to be done to make the system safer. Even New York Fed President William C. Dudley –who’s no “liberal” by any stretch–admits that the system is broken.  In October, 2013, at a bank conference  Dudley opined, “Current reforms do not address the risk that a dealer’s loss of access to tri-party repo funding could precipitate destabilizing asset fire sales, whether by the dealer itself, or by the dealer’s creditors following a default.”  In other words, the chances of another 5-alarm fire sometime in the future are pretty darn good.

Dudley’s description of what happened during the acute phase of the crisis is also worth reviewing. He said:

“Higher margins on repo and increased collateral calls due to credit ratings downgrades reduced the quantity of assets that could be financed in repo markets and elsewhere, prompting further asset sales. As wholesale investors started to exit, this set in motion a bad dynamic—a fire sale of assets that cut into earnings and capital. This just increased the incentives of investors to run and for banks to hoard liquidity against the risk that they could themselves face a run. This downward spiral of fire sales and funding runs was a key feature of the financial crisis …”

And, that, dear reader, is a first-rate account of what happened in 2008 when panic gripped the markets and the dominoes started to tumble. Former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke’s version of events is also worth a look if only because he describes the crash in terms of what it really was, a modern day bank run. Here’s what he said:

“What was different about this crisis was that the institutional structure was different. It wasn’t banks and depositors. It was broker-dealers and repo markets. It was money market funds and commercial paper.”

While most analysts agree about the origins of the crisis and the type of changes that are needed to avoid a repeat,  the banks have blocked all attempts at reforming the system.

But, why?

It’s because the reforms would cost the banks more money, and they don’t want that. They’d rather put the entire system at risk, then cough up a little more dough to make repo safer. Here’s how the New York Fed summed it up in a paper titled “Shadow Bank Monitoring”:

“One clear motivation for intermediation outside of the traditional banking system is for private actors to evade regulation and taxes. … Regulation typically forces private actors to do something which they would otherwise not do: pay taxes to the official sector, disclose additional information to investors, or hold more capital against financial exposures. Financial activity which has been re-structured to avoid taxes, disclosure, and/or capital requirements, is referred to as arbitrage activity.” (“Shadow Bank Monitoring”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, September, 2013)

That says it all, doesn’t it? They don’t want to pay taxes, they don’t want to hold capital against their collateral, and they want to continue to run their businesses in the shadows so nosy shareholders and regulators can’t see what the heck they’re up to. So, what else is new? The banks are running a crooked, black box operation, and they aim to keep it that way come hell or high water.

The banks can’t be reasoned with, that’s obvious from the position they’ve taken. They’ve put profits above everything, even the viability of the system. How can you reason with people like that?  Just get a load of what the New York Fed said on the matter:

“Intermediaries create liquidity in the shadow banking system by levering up the collateral value of their assets. However, the liquidity creation comes at the cost of financial fragility as fluctuations in uncertainty cause a flight to quality from shadow liabilities to safe assets. The collapse of shadow banking liquidity has real effects via the pricing of credit and generates prolonged slumps after adverse shocks.”

This sounds more complicated than it is. What the Fed is saying is: “Hey, guys, you’re creating all this fake money (credit) by loading up on leverage (borrowing), and that’s pushing us closer to another crisis.  Once the money markets figure out that all those nifty subprime CDOs you’ve been trading for overnight loans aren’t worth Jack-crap, then they’re going to cut you off at the knees and move into risk-free assets like US Treasuries. So why don’t you wise-the-hell-up, and start playing by the rules like everyone else so we don’t have to deal with another big, freaking meltdown.  Okay?”

(Of course, I’m paraphrasing here.)

The only way to fix repo is by backstopping collateral with more capital,  forcing all trading onto central clearing platforms (where regulators can see what’s going on), and regulating shadow banks like traditional, commercial banks.   The editors at Bloomberg said it best nearly a year ago. They said: ” If an entity engages in banking activity… it must register as a bank, with all the backstops and capital requirements that entails.”

Right on.

If we’re not going to nationalize the banks and turn them into public utilities, which is what we should have done in 2009 when we had the chance, then we need to put safeguards in place to keep them from crashing the system every few years.

Regulate, Regulate, Regulate. That’s the ticket.

Stricter regulations could have prevented the last crisis, and stricter regulations can prevent the next one. It’s just a matter of finding the political will to get the job done.

The article Still Broken Five Years Later – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By RT

Ukraine’s President Viktor Yanukovich and opposition leaders have signed an EU brokered agreement on ending the political crisis in the country.

The Ukrainian opposition representatives included the leader of the UDAR political party, Vitaly Klitschko, the head of the Batkivshchyna opposition party, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, and the leader of the nationalist Svoboda opposition party, Oleg Tyagnibok.

The breakthrough agreement was witnessed by EU foreign ministers who brokered the deal, including Poland’s Radoslaw Sikorski and Germany’s Frank-Walter Steinmeier, as well as Director at the Continental Europe Department of the French Foreign Ministry, Eric Fournier.

Russia’s Human Rights Commissioner Vladimir Lukin, who was present at the negotiations, noted the positive dynamic of the talks.

“We got acquainted with our partners’ position, and now we understand it,” he said. However, he added that “the biggest difficulty is that the situation is constantly changing” and there is no clarity as to who will fulfill the agreements and how.

On Friday, Yanukovich announced early presidential elections and the return to the constitution of 2004, which limits presidential powers and widens the parliament’s authority. Ukraine’s Parliament has already adopted a law restoring the constitution of 2004 with 386 MP’s voting in favor.

Yanukovich also said a national unity government will be created.

Steinmeier has confirmed that the signed deal includes these points. The EU foreign ministers have welcomed Ukraine’s agreement and called for an immediate end to violence.

According to the conditions of the agreement, within 48 hours a law restoring the 2004 constitution is to be adopted and signed, after which in 10 days a national unity government is to be formed.

The agreement also states that as soon as the new constitution is adopted, no later than September, the presidential election must be held until December.

Yatsenyuk has confirmed the snap presidential election will be held between September and December.

In addition, there will be an investigation into the “recent acts of violence” committed during the anti-government riots. Under the deal, no state of emergency will be imposed in the country, while the government will adopt an amnesty “covering the same range of illegal actions as the February-17 2014 law.”

“Both parties will undertake serious efforts to normalize life in the cities and villages by withdrawing from administrative and public buildings and unblocking streets, city parks and squares” the text of the agreement reads.

Leader of far-right group Right Sector, Dmitri Yarosh, told the protesters at Maidan Square Friday that the deal reached between the president and the opposition is not acceptable. Yarosh said that his group will not be putting down their arms until President Viktor Yanukovich resigns. “The Right Sector will not lay down its arms. The Right Sector will not remove the blockade of one of the government buildings until our most important requirement is fulfilled – the resignation of Yanukovich,” Unian quoted him as saying.

Later on Friday, presidential impeachment bill was introduced in the Ukrainian parliament. The new initiative was authored by Nikolay Rudkovskiy, the head of the Socialist Party in Ukraine, which is part of the ruling Party of Regions coalition. The bill was published on parliament’s website, though no details were provided.

Also, the Ukrainian parliament voted on Friday in favor of an unconditional amnesty for all people detained, or who might face possible prosecution in the current unrest.

Under the agreement all illegal weapons should be handed over to the Ministry of Interior within 24 hours. After this, all cases of illegal carrying and storage of weapons will be prosecuted under Ukraine law.

The last article of the deal urges forces on both sides of the conflict to refrain from confrontation, adding that law enforcement should be used “exclusively for the physical protection of public buildings.”

Ukraine has been gripped by protests since November, with the opposition calling for Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich to resign. Initially the protests were triggered by Yanukovich backing down from the EU integration deal. However, these have turned into violent riots against the government. The situation escalated from January to February and saw its peak this week, after rioters reignited street clashes with police in the capital Kiev.

The article Ukraine President, Opposition Sign EU-Brokered Agreement On Ending Crisis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Oriental Review

By Andrew Korybko

Poland, the eager American servant that it has been, has now officially taken on the role of the ‘Slavic Turkey’ in relation to Ukraine. Just as Turkey has been a geopolitically convenient conduit for arms, personnel, and material support for the Syrian terrorists, so too has Poland begun to officially fulfill this role for their Ukrainian counterparts.

Prime Minister Tusk stated on 20 February, 2014 that Poland is already treating the injured insurgents from Kiev, and has actually ordered the military and interior ministry to provide hospitals to help even more. The deputy health minister has confirmed that Warsaw is in contact with the rebels in Kiev “in making plans to take in Ukrainian wounded”.This means that Poland has formally extended its covert and diplomatic reach nearly 300 miles into the interior of Ukraine, and that its intelligence services are obviously doing more in Ukraine than just ‘helping the wounded’ (terrorists). It is even more likely that Polish influence is even stronger in Lviv and Volyn Oblasts, the regions bordering Poland, and coincidentally or not, Lviv has already attempted to declare independence. The same can be said of Turkish influence deep into Syria at the height of the crisis in that country, and one must be reminded of the fact that Turkey also helped the wounded fighters in that country recover on its territory.

The structural similarities between Poland and Turkey in relation to Ukraine and Syria need to be examined in order to more clearly understand how the ‘Lead from Behind’ template has been applied to both case studies.

First of all, the ‘Lead from Behind’ strategy has been defined as “discreet U.S. military assistance with [others] doing the trumpeting”. It is the new strategy of warfare for theaters where the US, for whatever reasons, is reluctant to directly militarily engage itself. It relies on using regional allies/’leaders’ as proxies to further US geostrategic and geopolitical goals via asymmetrical measures while Washington pivots to Asia, where it aims to present a conventional deterrent to China. Both Poland and Turkey are the US’ puppets of choice in their respective theaters against their neighboring targeted states (Ukraine and Syria). At the least, the US provides intelligence support and the training of ‘opposition’ units, while Poland and Turkey pull the weight in directly assisting those members during their deployments in the victimized nations. In the case of Ukraine, the US utilized NGOs to infiltrate the country over a more than 10-year period and also allocated $5 billion to “help Ukraine achieve [the development of democratic institutions]”. The National Endowment for Democracy has also been pivotal in peddling the ‘Kony 2012 of Ukraine’ in order to advance their psy-op campaign against Kiev, just as ‘Syrian Danny’ was the version deployed against Damascus.

But the similarities do not end there.

Both Poland and Turkey are frontier NATO states, with Poland being described as “the largest and most important NATO frontline state in terms of military, political and economic power.” These two geostrategic states also have an overwhelming population when compared to their neighbors, as well as national inferiority complexes stemming from their lost imperial legacies (the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and the Ottoman Empire). They share a significant land border with the states targeted for a ‘democratic transition’, as well as important cultural and political connections with those societies (as a result of the aforementioned imperial legacies) prior to the unleashing of the respective crises. This gives them significant intangible benefits over the future battlefield, both in state, non-state, and informational activities.

Poland and Turkey also host important American military installations. Turkey houses the US Air Force at Incirlik and an anti-missile defense radar in the east, while Poland provides the US with the Lask Air Force Base and an anti-missile defense outpost in the northeast near Kaliningrad. In regards to the development of the insurgents’ mission, the Ukrainian Fascists are taking on disturbingly similar characteristics to the Jihadists in Syria. In 2011, random sniper fire (attributed to the ‘rebels’) was targeting civilians in Damascus, just as the same has begun to occur in Kiev, even targeting a reporter from RT. The Lviv request for independence can be seen as following the declaration of autonomy of Syria’s Kurds, as both areas abut the border of the proxy state interfering in the affairs of its neighbor. In a similar fashion, both insurgent groups have taken over border control posts connected to their patron state, and this move obviously increases the ease with which Ankara and Warsaw can funnel arms, personnel, and materials to their subversive spawn. When the borders cannot be held by the insurgents, they resort to ransacking government depots and stealing arms from captured government forces and occupied buildings.   The Syrian fighters have a history of hostage taking and brutal executions, and their Ukrainian comrades have followed their lead by capturing over 60 police officers in Kiev.

It has thus clearly been demonstratively shown via the aforementioned examples that the destabilizations of both Ukraine and Syria are modelled off of a patterned approach. The US utilizes proxy states with injured imperial legacies in order to advance its ‘Lead from Behind’ strategy, targeting pivotal geostrategic areas where the US prefers to maintain a plausible deniability over its role and is reluctant to get too directly involved. One can also discern a larger trend developing – the use of extreme macro-regional ideological movements to support long-term destabilization. In the Middle East, extreme Islam is the method of choice for application and export, whereas in Ukraine, it is increasingly appearing as though extreme far-right (in some applications, even Neo-Nazi) group fit the ‘Wahhabi role’ for Europe. Ukraine could quite possibly become a training ground for other European far-right militants, or the ones currently in Ukraine can go on to teach the ‘tools of their trade’ to the highest bidder in other European states. Just as Turkey is supporting the extreme Islamists in Syria via its support for the fighters there, Poland can be said to be flirting with extreme far-right nationalists in Ukraine through its statements of support for the violent opposition and its recent decision to evacuate and help the wounded insurgents (not even counting the unreported level of covert involvement already ongoing). And just as the extreme Islamists got out of the control of their handlers and now endanger the entire Middle East, the risk remains that the extreme far-right nationalists may become uncontrollable in Ukraine as well and come to endanger the entire EU. When comparing Poland to Turkey and Ukraine to Syria, it is proven that the Arab Spring has come to Europe in more ways than meet the eye.

Andrew Korybko is an American Master’s Degree student at the Moscow State University of International Relations (MGIMO).

OR note:  Three years of the fierce anti-Assad campaign have brought nothing but political expenses to Turkey. Now Turkish Prime-Minister Recep Erdogan is trying to balance his poorly motivated policy towards Syria and to regain regional and public support, notably deteriorated as a result of his reckless implication in the Syrian tragedy. His latest visit to Tehran has shown the drastic shift in both Turkish rhetoric and approaches on the matter. So Turkey has likely learned the bitter lesson of playing aliens’ games in a neighboring country. Will Poland be able to soberly review its role in the horrific Ukrainian crisis too is still an open issue…

The article Poland As The ‘Slavic Turkey’ Of NATO Destabilization – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Eurasia Review

The following is the statement of Supreme Knight Carl Anderson on the situation in Ukraine:

The Knights of Columbus has been following the events unfolding in Ukraine. This week, Pope Francis said: “I assure the Ukrainian people of my closeness and pray for the victims of the violence, for their families, and for the injured. I urge all parties to cease every form of violence and to pursue harmony and peace throughout the country.”

In solidarity with our Holy Father, and with the Catholic Bishops and Church in Ukraine, the Knights of Columbus is asking all of our members around the world to pray the Prayer of St. Francis this coming Sunday that there may be a renewed dialogue and respect and a peaceful resolution to the situation in U kraine.

Prayer of St. Francis

Lord, make me an instrument of Thy peace.
Where there is hatred, let me sow love;
Where there is injury, pardon;
Where there is doubt, faith;
Where there is despair, hope;
Where there is darkness, light;
Where there is sadness, joy.

O Divine Master,
Grant that I may not so much seek
To be consoled, as to console;
To be understood, as to understand;
To be loved as to love.
For it is in giving that we receive;
It is in pardoning that we are pardoned;
And it is in dying that we are born to eternal life.

The article Statement Of Knights Of Columbus Supreme Knight Carl Anderson On The Situation In Ukraine appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By SAAG

By C. S. Kuppuswamy

In Myanmar’s seven-step road map to democracy announced on 30 August 2003 by General Khin Nyunt, the official English translation for the Burmese term for the type of democracy to be established in that country was Discipline Flourishing Democracy. This term continues to be in use.

Introduction

In March 2014, Myanmar will be completing three years of “discipline-flourishing-democracy” after a five-decade long military rule. Since Thein Sein, a former general and prime minister, took over as the “civil’ president in March 2011, the much needed reforms were introduced in three phases – the first focused on political reforms, the second on improving the economy and the third (now in progress) on tackling long standing corruption issues to make way for good governance.

In these three years, the country has undergone a sea change by way of political and economic reforms, freedom of expression, freedom of the press, right to assembly and to protest, formation of labour unions, removal of most of the economic sanctions, a functioning parliament with open debates and marginal improvement in the living standards especially in the urban areas.

However, what has been achieved or accomplished pales in comparison to what is yet to be done–by way of amending the “undemocratic” constitution, finding a political solution to the ethnic strife, undoing the predominance of the military in all fields, action to arrest the rising Buddhist fundamentalism, improvement of infrastructure, capacity building, improvement of health and educational facilities and poverty eradication.

A major effort by the administration is also under way for implementing a nation-wide cease fire to put an end to the civil war between the government troops and the ethnic groups that has ravaged the nation for over six decades.

There is a great deal of engagement by major nations of the world with Myanmar and a gold rush for grabbing the investment opportunities opened up consequent to this transition to democracy and withdrawal of the economic sanctions.

The Positives

Myanmar’s new legislature formed in 2011 is much more effective than expected in many ways with open discussions and acting as a check on the executive. Parliamentary committees have been formed for different subjects.

The Political Parties Registration Law was amended to facilitate the main opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD) to register as a political party and enter the main stream politics. Certain provisions such as restrictions on imprisoned persons being members of political parties were removed.

Myanmar hosted the World Economic forum on East Asia in June 2013, at Naypyidaw.

Myanmar took over the rotating chairmanship for ASEAN in 2014 at the 23rd ASEAN Summit held in Brunei in October 2013. The country has taken this as a challenge and has made elaborate plans to host more than 1000 meetings during this year.

Myanmar staged the 27th SEA games at Naypyidaw in December 2013 successfully thanks to technical and financial assistance from China.

A nationwide census is planned to be conducted from March 30 to April 2014. The last census was held in 1983.

Bulk of the political prisoners have been released over these three years.

Legislation according the citizens the right to “assemble peacefully without arms and holding processions” has been passed.

Legislation permitting trade unions and labour organisations to resort to strikes and form trade unions was introduced.

A National Human Rights Commission has been established.

Restrictions on media relaxed. A press council has been formed. Pre-publication censorship has ended. Exiled media has been allowed to operate officially inside the country. The market is flooded with privately owned dailies and weeklies.

The Myanmar currency had a dual exchange rate (one official and the other a black market rate) which was the source for major corruption. The Central Bank has managed to float the currency with effect from 1 April 2012.

In November 2012 Myanmar’s new Foreign Investment Law (FIL) was introduced. The new FIL permits foreign investment through 100% foreign owned companies (except in certain restricted areas), with tax exemption for a period of 5 consecutive years.

Myanmar achieved a GDP growth rate of 6.8% in 2013 following better than expected results in gas production, services and construction. FDI has also risen sharply from 3 pc to 5.2 pc in this period.

Civil society organisations are mushrooming by the day. Some of them are well-informed, professional, capable and enthusiastic in facilitating the transition to democracy – the notable ones being the Yangon School of Political Science, Myanmar Egress and the like.

The Negatives

Despite plans for a nationwide ceasefire (earlier postponed many times) in March 2014, clashes between the Government troops and ethnics continue to occur both in Kachin and Shan States. Cessation of hostilities and laying down arms are being emphasised rather than finding a political solution to meet the aspirations of the ethnic groups involved in the civil war since independence (1948).

There is no plan or time frame for army’s withdrawal from politics. Hence civilian control over the military seems to be a long way off.

Religious violence especially in the Rakhine State (the second poorest state in the country) is increasing with the target being the Muslims (Rohingyas in particular). Restrictions removed on assembly and protests have in a way helped religious radicals to indulge in violent activities perhaps with tacit support from the local security forces.

There is resistance especially from the army and the USDP (the ruling party) to amend the 2008 constitution with so many controversial provisions giving the army a major role in functioning of the government. Though a parliamentary committee formed for this purpose has submitted its recommendations, the government is adopting a delaying tactics to postpone the process and to perhaps settle for a few cosmetic changes to enable the military retain its predominance in the affairs of the state.

President Thein Sein

President Thein Sein, since taking over as President in March 2011, has perhaps won more accolades, than even Suu Kyi, as a reformist in the last three years both in the national and international arena. A political analyst had even dubbed him as “The Listener-in-Chief” for visiting troubled areas with his entourage of ministers, without much security protection or fanfare and listening to complaints and charges and replying to them outright or through his regular monthly televised addresses to the nation.

The president, aged 68 with a pacemaker, seems to be working tirelessly. He takes a paltry salary of $ 1500 a month and has got a well knit team of ministers and advisers with some economists and technocrats. In these three years, he had met Suu Kyi, the 88 generation leaders, and most ethnic group leaders in his efforts to achieve national reconciliation.

His first official visit abroad was to Jakarta (May 2011) to attend the ASEAN Summit, and the first state visit was to China in the same month. Since then he had visited many countries that includes USA, UK, Japan and India.

Though there are indications that he may not seek another term as president, it is yet to be officially announced.

Aung San Suu Kyi

On her release from her last house arrest on 13, November 2010, Aung San Suu Kyi resorted to legal channels for reinstating her party (NLD), earlier disbanded for boycotting the 2010 elections. It eventually materialised more through the efforts of President Thein Sein by amending the concerned laws.

She started forging alliances with all opposition movements to create a people’s network. She had her first meeting with President Thein Sein in August 2011 and since then has been meeting him on and off. She contested the by-elections in April 2012 and was sworn as a parliamentarian of the lower house on 02 May 2012.

In June 2012, she made her first trip to Europe after more than two decades and accepted the Nobel prize awarded to her 21 years before. In September 2012, she was on a 17-day tour to the United States, to receive a number of awards and recognition, to address the UN General Assembly, and to a private meeting with President Obama. Since then she has been travelling widely abroad and within the nation seeking the support from all quarters for amending the 2008 Constitution

Her transition from a political dissident and icon to a parliamentarian and party leader has not been very smooth. She has been criticised, for being too conciliatory, for wooing the military, for praising Thein Sein and his government for the progress the country has made, for not condemning the violence against the Rohingyas and for not supporting the cause of the ethnics (especially the Kachins).

She has repeatedly conveyed her ambitions to become the president and hence her ongoing vigorous campaign for amending the constitution which disqualifies her for the post is misconstrued by some analysts to portray her as self-centred.

Since early 2013, she is seen to be distancing from President Thein Sein and joining hands with Shwe Mann (the powerful Speaker of the Union Parliament) which some consider as a risky strategy and by some as realpolitik.

To quote an Indian diplomat “she is wielding immense authority as the nation’s conscience without holding a public office”.

Union Solidarity Development Party (The Ruling Party)

The military backed ruling party– Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which won more than 75% of the parliamentary seats in the 2010 elections, held its first Party Conference in October 2012 to transform the party into a people’s party and decide its policies for the 2015 elections. Shwe Mann, the powerful speaker of the Union Parliament has taken over as President of the Party (From President Thein Sein).

Even though President Thein Sein, in his televised address to the nation in January 2014, gave his backing for amending the Constitution to enable Suu Kyi to be eligible to the post of the president, USDP is seen to be averse. It warned the nation of grave danger and bad consequences if the constitution is abolished or redrawn. The USDP which was in the majority in the parliamentary committee set up in July 2013 for amending the constitution had even suggested for Suu Kyi’s sons to become Myanmar citizens to make her eligible. The party has submitted its own proposals for amending the constitution.

Union Parliament Speaker Shwe Mann, who is also President of the USDP, has written a letter to the Constitutional Amendment Implementing Committee to focus on Chapter 12 of the charter (which gives the military an effective veto) and complete its work no later than six months before the 2015 elections (The Irrawaddy 18 February 2014).

USDP, seeing the performance of the NLD in the by-elections held in April 2012, is quite apprehensive, and hence wants to make things difficult for the NLD.

National League for Democracy–NLD (Main Opposition Party)

The National League for Democracy (NLD) which had boycotted the 2010 elections and was officially dissolved in September 2010, was reinstated (registered) in January 2012 to enable the party to participate in the April 2012 by-elections, thanks to amendments to the Political Parties Registration Law by the quasi-civil government.

In the by-elections held in April 2012, the NLD won 43 of the 44 seats it contested, much to the dismay of the ruling party. Surprisingly, the NLD had won even in areas where the military’s presence was predominant such as Naypyidaw.

For the first time in 25 years the party held its national congress in March 2013 to revamp the party, to infuse young blood and to work out the strategy for the 2015 General Election. The fact that Aung San Suu Kyi urged the members in the congress to unite and move away from infighting and factionalism proves that both these ills are there in the party.

NLD being a predominantly Buddhist party have made no major efforts to include ethnic members and ethnic people are also suspect about Suu Kyi and the NLD taking care of their interests.

NLD’s move to interact with the 88 Generation leaders by a series of meetings since early this year (2014) is a good sign. No political alliance is in the offing though NLD has to reach out to 88 Generation leaders to get the 2008 Constitution amended.

A major criticism against the party is the culture of “Suu Kyi Cult” with over-reliance on her charisma.

Win Tin, a senior of the NLD remarked “the party’s reliance on Suu Kyi and the disarray caused by the detention of the senior leaders in the decades since 1988 have left the NLD without a clear successor”.

Ethnic Groups

The political and economic reforms introduced by the “Civil” government since March 2011 have not benefitted the ethnic groups as their demands for regional autonomy, equal rights and a federal army remain unfulfilled.

Most of the Ethnic Groups signed a second ceasefire agreement (one to one) with the state/central governments between 2011-12. The first round of ceasefire agreements signed between 1989-97 during the time of General Khin Nyunt had become defunct.

The only major group which did not enter into ceasefire with the civil government is the Kachin Independence Army (earlier ceasefire entered in 1994 broke down in June 2011).

Eleven of the ethnic groups joined and formed an umbrella organisation called the United Nationalities Federal Council in February 2011 for negotiations with the government.

Consequent to the proposal of a nation-wide ceasefire mooted by President Thein Sein in mid-2013, major ethnic groups had a meeting sponsored by the KIA at Laiza (30 October – 02 November 2013) and formed a Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT) and arrived at a 11 point framework agreement. This agreement was presented to the Peaace Making Committee at a meeting between the government and the ethnic groups (first ever joint peace talks) at Myitkyina in November 2013. The next meeting between the ethnics and the government is scheduled to be held in Karen state in March 2014.

There are many pitfalls in brokering a nationwide ceasefire agreement as the ethnic groups have their own rivalries and divergent demands and the government is cashing on this weakness.

Ethnic reconciliation is a must, but there appears to be no change in the ‘mindset’ of the Burmans – The main aim appears to be only ‘ceasefire’ and nothing more.

Armed forces

“The Tatmadaw (Armed Forces) remains a powerful institution free from any civilian control or oversight. Yet, for the time being, the government and the armed forces seem to be in broad agreement about the way ahead”—Andrew Selth in “Burma’s Security Forces, : Performing, Reforming or Transforming?

The armed forces, which were not involved earlier in the peace talks between the government and the ethnic groups, are seen to be involved in this process with their representatives in such talks since the latter half of 2013 perhaps as observers or advisers to the government.

The Myanmar Armed Forces participated in the Cobra Gold Exercise held in Thailand in early 2013 as observers. US Ambassador Derek Mitchell met with the Myanmar C-in-C Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in August 2013 and had talks for strengthening the defence relations between the two countries. There are indications that Australia, Britain and other Western nations will follow suit.

A statement reportedly made by the president that “if the political demands made by the pubic are larger than the current political system can accommodate, we can all end up in a political deadlock.” (The Economist-08 February, 2014) Does it mean a military coup?

International Engagement

UK Prime Minister David Cameron (April 2012), UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon (April 2012), Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (May 2012), US President Obama (November 2012), Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (May 2013) President Gauck of Germany (February 2014) and a host of other leaders and dignitaries of the major nations and officials of UN agencies had visited Myanmar since March 2011.

The government of the EU, Norway, Canada, USA and Australia have removed/ suspended most of the economic sanctions imposed on Myanmar.

Full diplomatic relations were restored by the US in January 2012. Derek Mitchell was appointed as Ambassador in July 2012. An USAID mission has started functioning in Yangon. A Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) was signed with Myanmar in May 2013. Many American companies have opened their representative offices in Myanmar. The US Ex-Im Bank will open shortly for business in Burma to help finance US export sales.

China signed a “Comprehensive Strategic Economic Cooperative Partnership” with Myanmar in May 2011. China had a set back when the Myitsone dam in Northern Myanmar under construction by China Power Investment Corporation was suspended in September 2011. Because of this suspension and with Myanmar’s opening up to the western nations, China has recalibrated its policy towards Myanmar. However, China has high stakes in Myanmar and hence its predominance in Myanmar’s economy will continue. It continues to have close ties with the Kachin and Wa tribes. Departing from its non interference policy, China has also got involved in peace negotiations between Myanmar and the KIA, by hosting the talks in its territory since October 2012.

Japan has waived Myanmar’s 300 billion ($ 3.7 billion) debt in 2012 and has resumed its assistance. The Nippon foundation, a Tokyo based organisation, is also involved in assisting Myanmar in its ethnic reconciliation and other philanthropic causes.

India had signed a slew of trade agreements including an MOU on a line of credit of US $ 500 million to Myanmar during the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Myanmar in May 2012. India has opened its Exim Bank in Yangon in September 2013. India has further extended seven lines of credit valued at US $ 247 million for various development projects. India has also stepped up its defence cooperation with Myanmar.

The World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have opened their offices in Myanmar. The ADB granted $ 512 million while the World Bank approved $ 440m credit in 2013. The World Bank during the visit of its President Jim Yong Kim to Myanmar in January 2014 has launched a $ 2 billion multi year program for health care and access to electricity.

Foreign companies (from Britain, Brunei, Canada, India, Italy, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Pakistan, Russia and Thailand) are vying with each other for oil and gas exploration tenders for the onshore and off shore blocks offered by the Myanmar Government.

Conclusion

Myanmar is in the throes of a conflict between military dominance and an open democracy.

The country has made some headway in its transition to democracy in the last three years but there seems to be many hurdles for the same momentum to be maintained.

The 2015 general elections will prove to be a watershed in the country’s history especially if the NLD becomes the major political party. The reaction of the military both within the parliament and outside to such a situation remains unpredictable.

Though a clear picture is still to emerge on the race for the post of the president, the main contenders seem to be the Speaker of the Union Parliament Shwe Mann (if Thein Sein is not seeking a second term), Aung San Suu Kyi (if qualified by then by a constitutional amendment) and the dark horse the Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the Commander-in-Chief.

The efforts of the government to implement a nation-wide ceasefire by March 2014 are running into difficulties. From the government side emphasis is on laying down arms prior to political dialogue, while the ethnic groups want a commitment on political dialogue before ceasefire. The demands of the ethnic groups for a federal set-up and a federal army are not getting due response from the government as well as the armed forces. There could be no stability unless the periphery is stable and satisfied.

The ethnic groups, despite having formed a National Ceasefire Coordinating Team for discussions with the government, are having divergent views on their demands and the modus operandi for entering into a nation-wide ceasefire and also some major groups such as the United Wa State Army do not want to be involved in the current negotiations. The biggest and heavily armed Wa group with China’s backing will always be a thorn in the flesh of Myanmar.

Environmentalists and Human Rights activists are unequivocal in claiming that the natural resources and the people of Myanmar are being robbed in the name of development in this sudden rush of projects under taken by the government with foreign assistance. Most of these activists have targeted the Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings Ltd (UMEHL), a military-run conglomerate in this connection. That both China and to a lesser extent Thailand are the culprits, but no one would dare to say so.

National Reconciliation seems to have taken a back seat in this transition to democracy and the ethnic groups continue to be left in the cold.

As of now, the prospect of the 2015 election being held without any major amendment to the constitution looms large. The international community (particularly US) may have to be prepared for such an eventuality.

Myanmar looks to be moving forward with liberalising the economy while keeping a stranglehold on politics by the Army much the same way as China moves with a stranglehold on politics by the communist party.

The article Myanmar: Three Years Of ‘Discipline-Flourishing-Democracy’ – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Eurasia Review

A Russian court’s guilty verdict against eight people in relation to an anti-Putin rally in May 2012 was a miscarriage of justice, Human Rights Watch said today. The court will announce their sentence on February 24.

“This case has been deeply flawed from the start because the charges were inappropriate,” said Tanya Lokshina, Russia program director at Human Rights Watch. “We hope this injustice will be corrected on appeal.”The “mass rioting” charges stem from a protest on Moscow’s Bolotnaya Square on May 6, 2012, the eve of President Vladimir Putin’s inauguration. Several dozen of the estimated tens of thousands of protesters clashed sporadically with police. Twenty-nine police officers and 55 protesters reported injuries, most of them minor. However, Russian investigative authorities alleged that the violence was planned and was part of a conspiracy to destabilize the country.

Under Russian law, “mass riots” are defined as mass actions that involve “violence, pogroms, destruction of property, use of firearms, or armed resistance to the authorities.”

In June 2012 Russia’s human rights ombudsman criticized the mass rioting charges, saying they were disproportionate. In December 2013 an international panel of experts on freedom of assembly publisheda report that found that although there were individual violent episodes, they did not reach a threshold to characterize them as “mass riots.” The panel said the criminal charges were disproportionate and concluded that the May 6 clashes were “in a large part a consequence of the actions by the authorities.” The experts’ detailed findings are consistent with Human Rights Watch’s inquiries into the May 6 events.

“The facts on the ground simply did not justify mass rioting charges against the protesters, let alone conviction,” Lokshina said.

Video recordings of the May 6 clashes showed one of the defendants, Andrei Barabanov, kicking a policeman once, and another, Alexandra Dukhanina, throwing stones, though it is not clear if the stones hit anyone. There is no video evidence linking to violence the other six defendants (Yaroslav Belousov, Sergey Krivov, Denis Lutskevich, Alexey Polikhovich, Artem Savelov, and Stepan Zimin), whom Amnesty International has designated as prisoners of conscience.

Seven of the eight defendants have been in custody since their arrests, between May and October 2012. The eighth has been under house arrest since May 2012.
Human Rights Watch has repeatedly called for the release of the demonstrators from custody. The failure to take basic steps to establish whether their continued detention was necessary violates the standards required by the European Convention on Human Rights, to which Russia is a party, Human Rights Watch said.

In December 2013, four people previously on trial with the eight but accused solely of “mass rioting” were given amnesty, transforming what came to be known as the “trial of twelve” into a trial of eight. Russia’s broad federal amnesty covered people charged with participation in “mass riots” as a stand-alone charge, but not in combination with violence against police or organization of “mass riots.”

On February 18 the trial of two other men charged with organizing mass riots on May 6, 2012 opened in a Moscow court. If convicted on that charge, Leonid Razvozzhaev and Sergei Udaltsov could face maximum 10-year prison sentences. Udaltsov is under house arrest. Razvozzhaev disappeared in Ukraine in October 2012 as he was applying for political asylum, and reappeared in Russian custody several days later.

He alleged that Russian special services kidnapped him and that he was subjected to cruel treatment and threatened with torture while held incommunicado to compel him to confess and implicate others. Russian authorities held a preliminary inquiry but refused to open a criminal investigation into his allegations.

In April 2013, following a plea bargain, a third man, Konstantin Lebedev, was found guilty of organizing mass riots and sentenced to two-and-a-half years in prison.Two other people were also sentenced in connection with the May 6 protest. Maxim Luzyanin, convicted in 2012, is serving a four-and-a-half-year sentence. Mikhail Kosenko, sentenced in 2013 and designated prisoner of conscience by Amnesty International, is in prison and is appealing a ruling ordering his indefinite detention in a psychiatric institution.

At least four more people are awaiting trial for mass rioting and violence against police during the May 6 protest. Two of them have been in pretrial custody since February 2013, and one since April. The fourth is not in custody but has travel restrictions. Their trial dates have not yet been set.

“The Bolotnaya case is a stark example of political manipulation of justice in Russia,” Lokshina said. “This disproportionate prosecution appears to be aimed at discouraging people from participating in public protests.”

The article Russia: 8 Protesters Found Guilty In Flawed Case appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Mobeen Tariq

Nuclear revitalization would never ever be transpired if nuclear energy was unsafe. Nuclear energy is a clean, safe, reliable and competitive energy source. As Nuclear energy by far has the lowest impact on the environment since it does not release any gases like carbon dioxide, methane which are largely responsible for greenhouse effect. Of all energy sources, nuclear energy has perhaps the most less impact on the environment, including water, land, habitat, species, and air resources. Nuclear power reactors have a foremost environmental benefit that they do not emit the gases that contribute to global warming, acid rain, or urban smog.

Nuclear energy is not only environmentally friendly but also offers inexpensive long term alternative to other sources of energy. It is the only source of energy that can replace a significant part of the fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) which massively pollute the atmosphere and contribute to the greenhouse effect. Today over 400 nuclear reactors provide base-load electric power in 30 countries.

Unlike traditional sources of energy like solar and wind that require sun or wind to produce electricity, nuclear energy can be produced from nuclear power plants even in rough weather conditions. They can produce power 24/7 and need to be shut down for maintenance purposes only. More over Nuclear power plants generate power less expensively than wind or solar power plants. Both solar and wind require large areas and both are sporadic, producing electricity only when the sun is shining or the wind blowing.

Nuclear power plants were responsible for nearly half of the total voluntary reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Nuclear power also provides water quality and aquatic life conservation. Water discharged from a nuclear power plant contains no harmful pollutants and meets regulatory standards for temperature designed to protect aquatic life. Nuclear power plants produce a large amount of electricity in a relatively small space, they require ominously less land for operation than all other energy sources.

Nuclear Power plants also entail only a relatively small amount of land, in contrast to the large areas required by solar or wind generating systems. For instance, solar and wind farms must occupy substantially more land, and must be sited in geographically unpopulated areas far from energy demand.

To build the equivalent of a 1,000-megawatt nuclear plant, a solar park would have to be larger than 35,000 acres, and a wind farm would have to be 150,000 acres or larger. By contrast, nuclear power plants with an installed capacity of over 1,900 megawatts of power can be built on 1500-acre site. Despite popular belief, nuclear plants are relatively safe.

In my conclusion, I must say that nuclear energy is not only clean, but it is also safe, reliable, durable and competitive. Nuclear Energy is a compact, reliable sustainable energy source that reduces carbon emissions and increases energy security. So “Yes” Nuclear Energy is the solution to energy crisis of Pakistan and this can only be possible by having more nuclear power plants.

The article Pakistan: Yes To Nuclear Energy – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By JTW

By Murat Yıldırım

At an upcoming NATO summit the alliance will decide whether to designate and treat cyber-attacks against its member states as military attacks.

According to reports by Dutch newspaper Trouw NATO will soon decide on its policy regarding the classification of cyber-attacks.

Dutch Defence Minister Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert stated that NATO will finalize its decision at a yet to be determined NATO summit.

The defence minister further stated that the United States, which supports the measure, is working behind the scene to have it approved, and that member states are working on a common paper on the issue.

If member states approve this change, NATO will consider cyber-attacks relevant to NATO’s fifth article: “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all.” This clause grants NATO the mandate to protect its members aganist threats.

The article NATO To Decide On Cyber Attacks appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By RFA

By Michael Lelyveld

The accuracy of China’s economic estimates faces growing doubts as the government tries to cut industrial overcapacity, recent reports suggest.

The government’s crackdown on excess and outmoded production has added new uncertainty to economic growth data as more business is forced off the official books.

Government-imposed lending limits on state-owned banks have been pushing targeted industries to rely increasingly on unregulated shadow banking, according to The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times.

Shadow banking loans, which also back local government debt, soared 43 percent last year to over 5.1 trillion yuan (U.S $851.7 billion), the Journal reported, citing estimates from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).

The result may be more unrecorded business activity, making it even harder to get reliable readings on China’s economy after a series of contradictory signals.

“As with all black market activity, the question is what’s the true growth rate of the economy,” said Derek Scissors, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

Officially, China’s gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, rose 7.7 percent last year, matching the growth rate of 2012 with the smallest expansion since 1999.

The figures have been subject to a host of questions, while world markets have reacted sharply to continuing signs of weakness in January as measured by purchasing manage index (PMI) reports. The PMI measures the rate of manufacturing growth in the economy.

Opposite directions

In recent weeks, China has issued a series of energy and economic results for 2013 that point in seemingly opposite directions, showing the slowest growth in oil demand in over two decades, according to Reuters,

but faster growth in power consumption than in 2012, the National Energy Administration (NEA) said.

But the government’s campaign against industrial overcapacity may raise even greater uncertainties.

Last July, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology ordered over 1,400 companies in 19 industries to shut down outdated facilities and eliminate surplus production capacity by the end of 2013.

Production utilization in some of the affected industries like steel has dropped below 70 percent, state media said.

The ministry singled out major energy-consuming industries associated with construction and pollution, including steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, plate glass and shipbuilding, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

Other targeted industries with significant overcapacity include copper and lead smelting, chemical fibers and papermaking, said the official English-language China Daily.

Some of the companies cited in reports last July said that cuts were already in the works.

But the effect on energy use and the environment remains open to question, judging by official data on the electricity industry for last year.

In January, the NEA reported that power consumption rose 7.5 percent last year, a faster pace than the 5.5-percent growth in 2012, even though industrial production grew less than in 2013.

The results may raise doubts about whether the targeted industries closed down their least efficient production lines in time for the year-end deadline.

More time

Scissors said the government directive may have been followed in some publicized cases, but decommissioning of industrial plants is likely to take more time.

In northern Hebei province, for example, the State Council, or cabinet, ordered the steel industry to cut 60 million tons of production capacity by 2017 as part of an anti-smog plan for Beijing. Local authorities plan to reduce steel output by 15 million tons this year, China Daily said.

Scissors said the government has been talking about overcapacity for the past decade, making it unlikely that the new crackdown will achieve instant results.

“It’s way too fast for this to happen, so even if they reported it, I’d say they closed some plants for a month,” Scissors said.

China’s worsening problem with urban smog may also be visible evidence that heavy industry has yet to make significant cuts.

The electricity industry itself has continued to expand, although its biggest consumers have been ordered to pare back.

China’s total installed power generation capacity reached 1.25 billion kilowatts (kW) by the end of 2013,

according to NEA figures, climbing 9.6 percent from the 1.14 billion kW reported for 2012. The increase was even greater than the 8-percent gain from the previous year.

Power industry yet to get word

The government may be serious this time about curbing overcapacity, but if so, the power industry has yet to get the word.

China added more new power generation last year than the total capacity of the United Kingdom or South Korea, according to figures from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, cited by Britain’s The Guardian newspaper.

On the bright side, China installed a record amount of new solar power capacity, more than any other country in the world, but it also added more than three times as much in new coal-fired generation, The Guardian said.

The addition may be justified if China succeeds in taking older, dirtier coal-fired plants offline in the future, Scissors said, but the capacity numbers suggest that the shutdowns have not taken place yet.

Scissors said the central government is also likely to meet with resistance from state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that have been told to close inefficient plants, which provide employment and enjoy local support.

“The SOEs always want another SOE to contract,” he said.

The question of compliance brings the issue back to shadow banking and estimates of economic growth.

Financed off the books

Since state-owned banks have been barred from lending to overcapacity industries, further operations can only be financed off the books.

“That way, it makes the local government happy because they’re continuing to lend, and it makes the national government happy because it’s not on the books,” Scissors said.

The combination of seemingly contradictory data, the overcapacity campaign and the forces behind shadow banking may indicate that China’s economy is actually growing faster than the 7.7-percent GDP growth rate.

“If there’s more off-book activity, that would suggest a strengthening economy,” said Scissors.

The theory may leave world markets increasingly in the dark as they react to economic reports from China, but it could help to explain some of the seeming contradictions in recent data, as well as the increase in urban smog.

The article China Crackdown Drives Business Off The Books – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.