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UNSCR 1540: A Decade Of Existence – Analysis

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By Rajiv Nayan

On April 28, 2004, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) adopted a resolution, which asked the member states to desist from supporting the efforts of non-State actors to develop, acquire, manufacture, possess, transport, transfer or use Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and their means of delivery. This resolution became popular as UNSC Resolution 1540. The resolution was initially opposed by the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) countries, but later these countries supported the resolution to fight the danger of WMD terrorism. The resolution that was adopted under Chapter VII of the UN Charter makes it binding for the member countries.

The UNSC took several initiatives to coordinate the implementation of the resolution 1540. Of all, the most significant was setting up of the UNSCR 1540 committee. From time to time, different UNSC resolutions were adopted to extend the tenure of the committee. The UNSCR 1540 committee will now continue to exist, at least, till April 25, 2021. The UNSCR 1977, adopted in April 2011, in fact, gave the committee the mandate to exist till 2021. Over a decade, the committee has scrutinised reports of the member states regarding implementation of the UNSCR 1540, and has mobilised support to assist the member countries in implementing the resolution. The 1540 resolution has introduced unprecedented changes in the export controls landscape, though it is still facing several questions and challenges regarding control and regulation of WMD.

The UNSCR 1540 greatly internationalised export controls. Before the advent of the resolution, the export control scene was dominated by multilateral export controls regimes, though the treaties such as the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and the Biological and Toxic Weapons Convention (BTWC) provided the mandate for the ban on transfer, production and possession of two of the WMD. As materials required for development of WMD have civil or peaceful uses, the member countries were allowed to undertake legitimate trade in most of these materials.

However, the BTWC does not provide any standard or detailed procedure to control biological goods. It is the member countries which develop their own procedures for international commerce in bio-technology and related goods. The CWC has relatively detailed provisions for chemical goods. It has divided the chemicals into three categories for commerce. The schedule 3 contains dual-use goods which are to be traded more liberally. As there is no such international treaty or deliberative body for nuclear trade, a multilateral export control body like the Nuclear Suppliers Group by and large determined the terms of global nuclear commerce. The missiles control also basically received the template from the Missile Technology Control Regime.

The UNSCR 1540 is comprehensive in its mandate and reach. It covers all the WMD and their delivery systems. The resolution per se does not have very detailed provisions, but the process of implementation and the UNSCR 1540 committee provided an appropriate institutional framework and procedural dynamics for export controls after its establishment pursuant to UNSCR 1540. The deliberation on export control was no longer confined to less than 50 countries. The group of experts, which has been assisting the committee, is drawn from the UN member states. Even Iraq, Pakistan and India have been represented on the expert group.

The committee through the matrix developed by the expert group has, to a great extent, harmonised the global WMD controls. As discussed, the comprehensive 1540 resolution, basically, provides the broad mandate for securing WMD and their delivery systems. It was the committee that asked the countries to submit their reports using the matrix. The countries were indirectly made to identify the gap and match to the criteria developed in the matrix. Several countries first searched their existing legal systems to provide statutory authority to export controls, later, passed new law to bridge the identified gap. The UNSCR strengthened norms for export control in the last.

Interestingly, in the beginning, India was sceptical of the resolution. India sided with the NAM group of countries. The NAM group opposed the UNSCR 1540 on grounds that that UNSC is not the appropriate body for legislating international law. However, realising the danger of WMD India along with other countries started supporting the resolution and later to implement the resolution it took a series of measures.
Active India

India submitted its reports to the UNSC 1540 committee. The first two reports were general in nature, but when the committee asked the countries to file their national reports using the matrix developed by the UNSCR 1540 committee, India submitted the reports using the UNSCR 1540 committee matrix. India periodically updated its reports. The reporting is indeed a great opportunity for India to showcase its legislative, regulatory and enforcement frameworks to the international community. At the same time, the filing of reports and the subsequent assessment also made India realise the gap in its control structure.

To implement the UNSCR 1540, India had to fill in the gap in its legislative system, and for the purpose, the Indian Parliament passed the Weapons of Mass Destruction and their Delivery Systems (Prohibition of Unlawful Activities) Bill on May 13, 2005. After receiving the Presidential assent on June 6, 2005 the bill became an act or a law. This Act is popularly referred to as the WMD Act. On a number of occasions, Indian officials stated: “Specifically, the WMD Act fulfils India’s obligations pursuant to the UN Security Council Resolution 1540 on non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction by prohibiting the possession, manufacture, transportation, acquisition, development of nuclear weapons, chemical weapons or biological weapons by non-State actors.”

This act introduced several global good practices for WMD control to the India system. Through the act the Indian export controls system has transit and trans-shipment controls, retransfer control, technology transfer controls, brokering controls and end-use based controls. The WMD Act also led to the changes in other laws like Foreign Trade (Development & Regulation) Act. This act helped India in properly implementing and enforcing the general objectives of the UNSCR 1540 by providing statutory authority to the licensing and the Customs departments.

The engagement is continuing in other implementation activities of the UNSCR 1540. India has been supporting the UNSCR 1540 committee set up to implement the mandate of the resolution. The resolution 1977, which extended the mandate of the UNSCR 1540 till April 25, 2021, had the support of India as well. The 1540 committee is also supposed to work in coordination of other international organisations such as International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or Organisation for Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). Under the aegis of IAEA India organised a training course on physical protection of nuclear installations. India is also prepared to share its expertise with any country which is interested in it.

However, the success of a decade of existence of the UNSCR 1540 should not make the international community overlook persisting problems. The objective of the 1540 is to internationalise WMD security by targeting the entire supply chain. Even the countries, which do not have high technology or dual use technology or WMD technology, have been brought under the control framework to plug the loophole in the global control system. The mechanisms such as brokerage and intangible control were introduced for these countries. Yet, some countries have not taken appropriate legislative, regulatory and enforcement measures. Expertise and funding have not reached despite the best of efforts by the international community.

Quite importantly, the 1540 model is structured on the Western experience. The Western countries are also finding that the Cold War export control structure is fast losing its utility. A strong voice is already emanating from these countries to restructure and reorient the export control, but somehow the local dynamic is preventing the restructuring. Shockingly, a country like the United States that is in the forefront is not able to pass its lapsed Export Administration Act for more than two decades. The international community needs to review the functioning of the best practices the UNSCR 1540 has promoted so far. The need is to develop a set of effective practices. The shift in the global paradigm that is taking place because of the UNSCR 1540 needs another shift to make its character truly international.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India.

Originally published by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/UNSCR1540_rnayan_280414

The post UNSCR 1540: A Decade Of Existence – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Human Fat: A Trojan Horse To Fight Brain Cancer?

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Johns Hopkins researchers say they have successfully used stem cells derived from human body fat to deliver biological treatments directly to the brains of mice with the most common and aggressive form of brain tumor, significantly extending their lives.

The experiments advance the possibility, the researchers say, that the technique could work in people after surgical removal of brain cancers called glioblastomas to find and destroy any remaining cancer cells in difficult-to-reach areas of the brain. Glioblastoma cells are particularly nimble; they are able to migrate across the entire brain, hide out and establish new tumors. Cure rates for the tumor are notoriously low as a result.

In the mouse experiments, the Johns Hopkins investigators used mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) — which have an unexplained ability to seek out cancer and other damaged cells — that they harvested from human fat tissue. They modified the MSCs to secrete bone morphogenetic protein 4 (BMP4), a small protein involved in regulating embryonic development and known to have some tumor suppression function. The researchers, who had already given a group of mice glioblastoma cells several weeks earlier, injected stem cells armed with BMP4 into their brains.

In a report published in the May 1 issue of Clinical Cancer Research, the investigators say the mice treated this way had less tumor growth and spread, and their cancers were overall less aggressive and had fewer migratory cancer cells compared to mice that didn’t get the treatment. Meanwhile, the mice that received stem cells with BMP4 survived significantly longer, living an average of 76 days, as compared to 52 days in the untreated mice.

“These modified mesenchymal stem cells are like a Trojan horse, in that they successfully make it to the tumor without being detected and then release their therapeutic contents to attack the cancer cells,” says study leader Alfredo Quinones-Hinojosa, M.D., a professor of neurosurgery, oncology and neuroscience at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine.

Standard treatments for glioblastoma include chemotherapy, radiation and surgery, but even a combination of all three rarely leads to more than 18 months of survival after diagnosis. Finding a way to get biologic therapy to mop up what other treatments can’t get is a long-sought goal, says Quinones-Hinojosa, who cautions that years of additional studies are needed before human trials of fat-derived MSC therapies could begin.

Quinones-Hinojosa, who treats brain cancer patients at Johns Hopkins Kimmel Cancer Center, says his team was heartened by the fact that the stem cells let loose into the brain in his experiments did not transform themselves into new tumors.

The latest findings build on research published in March 2013 by Quinones-Hinojosa and his team in the journal PLOS ONE, which showed that harvesting MSCs from fat was much less invasive and less expensive than getting them from bone marrow, a more commonly studied method.

Ideally, he says, if MSCs work, a patient with a glioblastoma would have some adipose tissue (fat) removed from any number of locations in the body a short time before surgery. The MSCs in the fat would be drawn out and manipulated in the lab to secrete BMP4. Then, after surgeons removed the brain tumor, they could deposit these treatment-armed cells into the brain in the hopes that they would seek out and destroy the cancer cells.

The post Human Fat: A Trojan Horse To Fight Brain Cancer? appeared first on Eurasia Review.

‘Til Sickness Do Us Part: How Illness Affects The Risk Of Divorce

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In the classic marriage vow, couples promise to stay together in sickness and in health. But a new study finds that the risk of divorce among older married couples rises when the wife—but not the husband—becomes seriously ill.

“Married women diagnosed with a serious health condition may find themselves struggling with the impact of their disease while also experiencing the stress of divorce,” said Amelia Karraker, a researcher at the University of Michigan Institute for Social Research, who presents her findings May 1 at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America.

Karraker and co-author Kenzie Latham of Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis analyzed 20 years of data on 2,717 marriages from the Health and Retirement Study, conducted by the Institute for Social Research since 1992. At the time of the first interview, at least one of the partners was over the age of 50.

The researchers examined how the onset of four serious physical illnesses—cancer, heart problems, lung disease and stroke—affected marriages.

They found that, overall, 31 percent of marriages ended in divorce over the period studied. The incidence of new chronic illness onset increased over time as well, with more husbands than wives developing serious health problems.

“We found that women are doubly vulnerable to marital dissolution in the face of illness,” Karraker said. “They are more likely to be widowed, and if they are the ones who become ill, they are more likely to get divorced.”

While the study did not assess why divorce is more likely when wives but not husbands become seriously ill, Karraker offers a few possible reasons.

“Gender norms and social expectations about caregiving may make it more difficult for men to provide care to ill spouses,” Karraker said. “And because of the imbalance in marriage markets, especially in older ages, divorced men have more choices among prospective partners than divorced women.

“We did not have information on who initiated divorce in this study. But it’s important to keep in mind that in most cases, it’s women who do so. So it could be that when women become ill and their husbands are not doing a very good job caring for them, they would rather that he just go and they rely on friends and family who will take care of them.”

Given the increasing concern about health care costs for the aging population, Karraker believes policymakers should be aware of the relationship between disease and risk of divorce.

“Offering support services to spousal caregivers may reduce marital strain and prevent divorce at older ages,” she said. “But it’s also important to recognize that the impetus for divorce may be health-related and that sick ex-wives may need additional care and services to prevent worsening health and increased health expenditures.”

Karraker is a National Institute on Aging Postdoctoral Fellow at the ISR Population Studies Center.

The post ‘Til Sickness Do Us Part: How Illness Affects The Risk Of Divorce appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Stem Cells From Teeth Can Make Brain-Like Cells

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University of Adelaide researchers have discovered that stem cells taken from teeth can grow to resemble brain cells, suggesting they could one day be used in the brain as a therapy for stroke.

In the University’s Centre for Stem Cell Research, laboratory studies have shown that stem cells from teeth can develop and form complex networks of brain-like cells. Although these cells haven’t developed into fully fledged neurons, researchers believe it’s just a matter of time and the right conditions for it to happen.

“Stem cells from teeth have great potential to grow into new brain or nerve cells, and this could potentially assist with treatments of brain disorders, such as stroke,” says Dr Kylie Ellis, Commercial Development Manager with the University’s commercial arm, Adelaide Research & Innovation (ARI).

Dr Ellis conducted this research as part of her Physiology PhD studies at the University, before making the step into commercialisation. The results of her work have been published in the journal Stem Cell Research & Therapy.

“The reality is, treatment options available to the thousands of stroke patients every year are limited,” Dr Ellis says. “The primary drug treatment available must be administered within hours of a stroke and many people don’t have access within that timeframe, because they often can’t seek help for some time after the attack.

“Ultimately, we want to be able to use a patient’s own stem cells for tailor-made brain therapy that doesn’t have the host rejection issues commonly associated with cell-based therapies. Another advantage is that dental pulp stem cell therapy may provide a treatment option available months or even years after the stroke has occurred,” she says.

Dr Ellis and her colleagues, Professors Simon Koblar, David O’Carroll and Stan Gronthos, have been working on a laboratory-based model for actual treatment in humans. As part of this research Dr Ellis found that stem cells derived from teeth developed into cells that closely resembled neurons.

“We can do this by providing an environment for the cells that is as close to a normal brain environment as possible, so that instead of becoming cells for teeth they become brain cells,” Dr Ellis says.

“What we developed wasn’t identical to normal neurons, but the new cells shared very similar properties to neurons. They also formed complex networks and communicated through simple electrical activity, like you might see between cells in the developing brain.”

This work with dental pulp stem cells opens up the potential for modelling many more common brain disorders in the laboratory, which could help in developing new treatments and techniques for patients.

The post Stem Cells From Teeth Can Make Brain-Like Cells appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Geopolitical Implications Of The Ukraine Crisis – Analysis

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By Richard Kraemer and Maia Otarashvili

With the unfolding of the Ukraine crisis, Russian-American and Russian-EU relations have clearly reached their lowest point since the end of the Cold War. Furthermore, the impact and implications of Russia’s actions extend well beyond Europe and relations with the U.S., starting most notably with the Middle East. Western governments would do well to take account of the Kremlin’s efforts to reassert its influence in these regions and formulate a firm, committed, and unified response in defense of their shared interests.

Russia’s shocking abrogation of Ukraine’s sovereignty with its annexation of Crimea and subsequent incursions into eastern Ukraine have left policymakers around the world reeling. Putin’s unwillingness to comply with Washington’s and Brussels’ demands for Russia to honor Ukraine’s territorial integrity testifies to the death of the attempted “reset” of relations, launched five years ago at the London G20 summit. Since then, aside from a new nuclear arms reduction treaty and occasional bouts of diplomatic cooperation, relations have only deteriorated.

This regression is unsurprising given Russia’s trajectory under president Vladimir Putin. The Russian invasion of Crimea is simply a further – though much larger scale and more dramatic – chapter in a very familiar post-Soviet saga. Russia has repeatedly intervened, at times including military action, in the former USSR republics as a means of weakening or subordinating these neighboring governments and keeping them out of the orbit of the United States and the Western European powers. Moscow’s sponsorship of persisting conflicts in places such as Transdniestria[1], its belligerent invasion of Georgia in 2008 and, most importantly, its recent assault on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are emblematic of Russian designs to reestablish its hegemony on a regional scale.

Significantly, however, Putin’s attempts to reassert Moscow’s power are not limited to the Russian Federation’s “near abroad.” In the Middle East, Russia has doubled down in its support of its decades-long ally, Syria. Moscow also provides Iran effective political cover and technical assistance for its nuclear program; and it endeavors to deepen its relations with Egypt and even with Jordan. The Middle East region’s energy resources, potential industrial and arms markets, and export of radical Islamic ideology make it too important for Putin’s expansionist Russia not to compete actively against the U.S. and its allies.

While the implementation of Putin’s expansionist strategy has been underway for several years, its Ukraine incursions represent a major acceleration. Putin and his inner circle of advisers who are behind Russia’s foreign policy are emboldened by their belief that the current US administration is incapable of the resolve, toughness and leadership necessary to check their ambitions, and that the Western Europeans are too divided and timid to take effective counter-actions against his aggression.

RUSSIA’S REASSERTION IN THE “NEAR ABROAD”

Black Sea

Black Sea

For American policy analysts and experts on Russia’s near abroad, Putin’s ambition of restoring Russia to its Soviet-like glory has been a matter of growing concern. Putin has on many occasions noted that he considers the fall of the Soviet Union the greatest tragedy of the 20th century. The former USSR republics as well as the former satellite states have to varying degrees lived under Russia’s shadow and influence since their very first years of independence.

While Russian leverage had, at least until the mid-2000s, significantly diminished in the 11 post-communist states that are now members of theEuropean Union,[2] it has always remained significant among the former USSR member republics. Some of these states, especially those in Central Asia, are already well within Russia’s sphere of influence. However, Putin has attempted to consolidate his country’s hegemony over the South Caucasus countries (Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan) as well as the states directly bordering the EU — i.e., Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine. In the latter two countries, Western influence nevertheless remains significant, and hopes for democratization and desire for closer integration with the EU remain high.

Nevertheless, since Putin’s return to the Russian presidency Armenia, Georgia, Moldova and, most importantly, Ukraine have now become pawns in an increasingly blatant tug of war between Russia and the West. American investment in the economic development and democratization processes of these countries has been significant. Still in transition, these states maintain the important geopolitical role of connecting the West with the East, Europe with Asia and providing an important buffer zone between Russia and Europe. Ukraine in itself represents an energy transit source of the utmost importance between Europe and Asia, and for Russia in particular.

Putin has sought to maximize Russia’s economic, energy, and geopolitical leverage in Russia’s neighboring countries. Placing an embargo on Georgian, Moldovan, and Ukrainian products has had devastating results on the economies of these countries in the past. Raising energy prices or completely cutting off energy supplies to Moldova and Ukraine continues to serve as another highly effective tool for Russia. Like most states in the region, these fragile countries also suffer from territorial integrity issues, and the presence of Russian armed forces in their breakaway regions continues to be a major problem. The self-assigned peacekeeping role provided Russia an invaluable entry point when conflict broke out in Georgia’s South Ossetia region in 2008, leaving thousands dead or displaced within sovereign Georgian territory, well beyond the borders of the conflict zone. The weak international response coupled with the West’s subsequent inaction in punishing Russia for its unlawful intervention helped to reinforce Putin’s perception of a weakened, feckless West.

In order to counteract the EU’s eastward expansion efforts, Putin created the  project of a Eurasian Union that is to be officially formed in 2015. Led by Russia, this initiative’s economic precursor – the Eurasian Customs Union – already counts Belarus and Kazakhstan as members.[3] The Eurasia Union has now also enlisted Armenia as a membership candidate after President Serg Sargsyan’s decision under Russian pressure in September 2013 to forego signing the EU Association Agreement. Putin effectively used the ongoing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorny-Karabakh as leverage for the advancement of his own agenda. After openly hinting at the possibility of conflict escalation in that region by selling weapons to Azerbaijan, Putin was able to persuade Sargsyan to abandon the lengthy Association Agreement negotiations with the EU shortly before November 2013 Vilnius summit.[4]

After struggling to achieve full autonomy from Russia, leaders in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine have become convinced that the fate of their independence rests in the hands of the West. This outcome can only be guaranteed if further and irreversible integration with the West is accomplished. Accordingly, securing EU membership is at the top of the agendas of democratic leaders and reformers in these countries.

With Russia’s recent annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region and the obvious threat of invasion or at least de facto Russian domination facing other parts of eastern and southern Ukraine, the country’s sovereignty is now at stake. The Ukraine crisis represents a major foreign policy challenge for the United States as it has not only led to the significant worsening of Russo-American relations, but also called into question its ability to act effectively in unison with its European allies. The potential outcomes of this crisis threaten to significantly shift the current global power balance and further undermine US influence well beyond the Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union.[5] While just a few months ago most US officials and commentators would have dismissed the idea that something similar to the Cold War was emerging[6], analysts now openly acknowledge that the “chess game” that Putin is playing with the West is all too reminiscent of the Cold War.

Washington has made strong statements against Putin’s actions and has imposed multiple sanctions on Russia.[7] The United States sided with the greater international community in condemning the referendum in Crimea to decide whether or not it would remain a part of Ukraine. Despite the majority of the UN Security Council members boldly rejecting this referendum, the Crimean government still carried out the unconstitutional vote in highly questionable conditions on March 16th. According to the Russian-backed authorities in Crimea, 97% of those voting on March 16 were in favor of Crimea seceding from Ukraine and joining Russia.[8] In response, the European Union and the United States pledged to increase the sanctions and on March 17th President Obama signed an executive order, listing additional Russian individuals as well as banks to be sanctioned.[9] Ukraine’s former president Yanukovych, who fled to Russia and was impeached, is also on this list of individuals to be sanctioned.

Some US policymakers still appear to believe that the Ukraine crisis can still be resolved through a combination of sanctions and diplomatic efforts means. But Western sanctions have so far failed to send a strong signal to Russian leaders or to pressure the government to cooperate with the international community. Furthermore, the present efforts to reign in a reckless Russia are reactive rather than strategic, and they fail to take into account that Moscow’s latest incursion into yet another independent state is part of a greater, long-term drive by Putin to fortify the perception that he and his Russian Federation are a potent global actor.

Recent developments along with additional threats of Russian aggression breaking out in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Slovyansk and other eastern cities are increasingly ominous for democrats in Ukraine and for Western interests more generally.

RENEWED RUSSIAN ENGAGEMENT IN THE NEAR EAST

Middle East

Middle East

Prior to the political standoff over Crimea, the greatest example of the reset’s failure was the powers’ inability to find a common, mutually beneficial approach to help end Syria’s brutal civil war. With an intelligence assessment in hand revealing that Syrian government agents had repeatedly used chemical weapons against its civilian population, US policy planners began to formulate possible responses that would prevent further attacks by Syrian president Bashar al-Assad on the Syrian people; one of these was a campaign of missile strikes against military sites and bases containing chemical weapons.

Alarmed at the prospect of an Assad thus militarily weakened, Putin went on the diplomatic offensive to deter the looming bombing campaign, and had his foreign minister seize upon a rhetorical remark made by his US counterpart.[10] Obama’s unwillingness to act without Congressional approval gave the Russians the time and space to broker UN Security Council Resolution 2118,[11] whereby the Syrian government agreed to relinquish its chemical arsenal under UN inspection, thus undercutting the basis for an armed response to the Assad regime’s ruthless use of chemical weapons on its own people.

Behind these unfolding events was Moscow’s decades-long support for the Syrian regime, beginning in 1970 under the rule of Hafez al-Assad and continuing with the succession of his son and current president, Bashar. As the peaceful demonstrations of Syrians’ “Arab Spring” had turned increasingly violent with the state’s vicious backlash in the summer of 2011, Russia became more and more involved, domestically and internationally. There was much at stake from the Kremlin’s perspective: Russia’s 43-year-old Tartus naval facility on Syria’s Mediterranean coast; Russian arms manufacturers, supplying 48% of Syrian imports throughout its exponential armament expansion of 2006-2010;[12] and the last reliable Arab ally in a post-Cold War world, through which Russia could hope to project political influence in the Middle East.

Throughout capitals in the West, this peaceful solution to the crisis was nevertheless seen largely as a successful compromise, a step towards possibly resurrecting the spirit of the Reset, which at this juncture was barely breathing given disputes over the US missile defense posture in Europe, Russia’s sheltering of the indicted ex-NSA contractor Edward Snowden, and diplomatic impasses over the Syrian conflict and Iran’s nuclear program. East of the Bug and Bosphorus, however, America’s hesitancy to react more decisively given the crossed “red line” was seen as weakened American resolve.

This was the case in Tehran, whose support for Assad briefly wavered only the slightest bit when news of the chemical attack on the Ghouta suburbs of Damascus broke. Newly elected president Hassan Rouhani condemned the use of the nerve agent sarin and, rather tellingly, did so without indicating a perpetrator.[13] This subtle rebuke aside, Iran’s provision of Revolutionary Guard fighters, arms, funds, and logistical support to pro-government forces combating the rebels continued without pause. Iran’s fearlessness of international censure for its overt support of this brutal regime reflected an emboldened posture, one  based on confidence that Washington would keep Israeli bombers at bay and be pliable in upcoming P5+1 negotiations.

Iran’s recent gains on the nuclear front, in sanctions relief, and regarding Syria were all achievable in part thanks to its interests aligning with Moscow’s, and in part by Russian design. Since 1995, Russia has exported nuclear technology to Iran, despite the vociferous protests of Western governments. Their leaders share grave concerns about Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s suspected drive to weaponize his country’s nuclear energy program. These fears are exacerbated by the talks currently underway to build a second reactor, affording Russia capital, oil, and influence. Currently, there are reports of the two governments penning a $20 billion oil-for-goods deal, flaunting transatlantic solidarity over sanctions;[14] renewed negotiations over the controversial sale of the anti-aircraft s-300 system to Tehran may well be in the offing.

Russia also provides further diplomatic assistance for its Arab and Persian allies. With respect to the P5+1 negotiations, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has been stalwart in backing Tehran’s efforts to roll back sanctions imposed by US and Europe.[15] Regarding Syria, Russian UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin’s unswerving veto shields the Assad government from effectively punitive actions by the international community.[16] Russia’s proven willingness to provide diplomatic cover for its allies is unlikely to be lost on other autocratic governments in the Middle East.

Moscow is also attempting to forge renewed relationships elsewhere in the Arab world, Russia’s erstwhile partner Egypt being one example. With the Obama administration’s decision to limit Egyptian arms sales in the wake of the army’s ouster of its civilian Islamist government in July 2013, Russia saw an opportunity to fill the gap. Last November’s high-level delegation to Cairo headed by minister Lavrov was followed by the recent visit to Moscow by Egyptian defense and foreign ministers – the first official visit in 40 years – in order to finalize an arms deal valued around three billion dollars.[17] It remains to be seen whether this is simply a one-time transaction or a greater shift in Cairo’s orientation. Yet it underlines, as with Syria and Iran, Russia’s proactive approach in relationship-building when the opportunity arises.

Jordan is another example. While the degree of historic engagement with Russia differs significantly between the Hashemite Kingdom and Nasser’s Egypt (e.g., there were never 15,000 Soviet military advisors stationed in the former),[18] relations between Amman and Moscow have been open and transactional since the mid-70s, excepting the monarchy’s vocal opposition to the Chechen wars.[19] Presently, faced with ever increasing energy needs and a lack of cost-effective means to meet them, Jordan’s Atomic Energy Commission last March completed several rounds of talks whose conclusion paves the way for Russia’s Rosatom to construct the country’s first nuclear reactor.[20] Two years prior, a Jordanian-Russian Intergovernmental Commission was penned into being while Putin was on a state visit to Amman. Seeking to remedy its chronic trade deficit and desire to increase tourism, Jordan has kept the commission interacting with its willing Russian counterparts.[21]

All of the aforementioned governments are united in their well-founded fear of the security threats emanating from the radical interpretations of Islam adopted by Sunni terrorist organizations. From the North Caucasus to the Sinai Peninsula to western Iraq, each one of these governments strives to contain and eradicate violent jihadist groups. Russia, persistent in its understandable concern about the export of such ideology to its significant Muslim population, understandably supports those governments in the region similarly working to prevent its spread.

The breadth of Russia’s reengagement with Middle Eastern states varies from legitimate transactions (Jordan), to arms sales to military governments (Egypt), to unwavering and manifold support for oppressive autocratic regimes (Iran and Syria). Common to each is Moscow’s opportunistic outreach when there is space to expand its influence and to check US policy objectives in the region, without regard for these governments’ treatment of their citizenry or neighbors.

US POLICY CONSIDERATIONS

Russia's Vladimir Putin, photo Kremlin.ru

Russia’s Vladimir Putin, photo Kremlin.ru

The Ukraine crisis is far from over, and continues to test the effectiveness of Western diplomacy. While some American policymakers and experts may still hope that the sanctions currently on the table will help pressure Russia to comply with Western demands, further actions, such as helping build up Ukraine’s army and strengthening NATO’s military posture, are being considered. The EU has engaged with the interim Ukrainian government to expedite the final signing of the Association Agreement, and the US government has committed to providing Ukraine with a one billion dollar loan in tandem with much larger loans from the EU and the IMF in order to aid Ukraine’s failing economy.

Some American commentators believe that Putin is improvising in Crimea in reaction to the ouster of his ally, Ukraine’s former President Yanukovych, and simply taking advantage of instability in the country. In the authors’ view, however, Putin’s actions in Russia’s “Near Abroad” over the past several years, as well as his policies with regard to Syria and Iran tell a different story – the compelling story of a highly ambitious, strongly anti-Western authoritarian leader with a much longer-term and more far-reaching grand strategy.

Russia’s unabashed dismissal of the authority of the government in Kiev and its propagation of a counterfactual narrative in eastern and southern Ukraine could well have negative implications for the Middle East. Whether negotiating over a possible resolution to Syria’s tragic civil war or an agreement to enforce a strict limit on Iran’s nuclear capacities, Moscow’s word will be much less credible, and its behind-the-scenes actions much more suspect. Putin’s use of Russian troops to annex Crimea and subvert other parts of Ukraine is only the tip of the iceberg. A regime with such willingness to distort the truth and to flout the fundamental rules of international order for its own aggrandizement undermines the confidence of friend and foe alike.

Without fundamental shifts in their postures, Russia’s authoritarian associates in the Middle East have little alternative but to stick closely by Moscow. Other than Iran and Hezbollah, Syria has few, if any, allies to choose from; certainly none that can provide as many clear benefits as Russia. Moreover, Putin will not keep Assad from taking action independently at home or abroad. Similarly, Iran also lacks its share of backers on the world stage and so will be unlikely to shift its posture vis-à-vis the Kremlin. Faced with a less-than-conciliatory administration in Washington, Egypt will avoid too much reliance on the White House, likely shoring up relationships with less democratic, less demanding partners.

At their various negotiating tables, American and European diplomats are assuredly looking evermore askance at their Russian counterparts across from them. But while US policy makers have little room to maneuver out of the status quo when negotiating over Iran or Syria, they do have leverage to deal with Russia, rather than simply “put up” with it. It is hard to believe that the Kremlin has wholly foregone its decade-plus drive to be recognized as a worthy international player, despite the predictable Western outrage voiced over Crimea’s annexation. While nationalistic rhetoric plays well at home, the Russian leadership still wants prestige on the global stage — not isolation. Moreover, despite considerable foreign exchange reserves at the moment,[22] the reality is that Russia’s economy is not a solitary monolith capable of self-sustenance, within the Eurasian economic community or otherwise. For one example, 45% of Russian exports go to the EU and US combined.[23] Russia has much to lose in the long-term by weakening its political and economic relations with the West in return for a slice of land with Russian-speaking pluralities.

The Russian-provoked crisis in eastern Ukraine is far from over; rather, it is escalating.  Amidst growing tensions, Ukrainians are preparing to elect their next president on May 25th. This election is of historic importance for the country, as the outcome could either involve a de facto dismemberment of the country or help pave the way towards some degree of Ukrainian stability and independence. Rather than allow itself to be sidetracked or outmaneuvered by Moscow, the West should concentrate on and increase its efforts to strengthen the Ukrainian government’s ability to uphold the rule of law, deliver services, realize the country’s economic potential, and defend its borders. In the immediate future, the West’s role is threefold:

  • The U.S. and other, willing NATO allies must help prevent further loss of Ukrainian territory by better training and equipping of Ukraine’s army through regular joint exercises with Ukrainian forces, bolstered by the provision of appropriate material and systems.
  • Western governments and international organizations must strive to best ensure that the May 25th election takes place in a free, fair, transparent and credible manner.
  • A realistic economic stabilization and growth program must be formulated in a multilateral and inclusive manner, whereby Western governments and international financial institutions together with the Ukrainian government and business leadership achieve strategic consensus.

Witnessing continued Russian military aggression, NATO’s longer-standing members, led by the US, should in public and private forum categorically reaffirm to Russia the alliance’s unswerving commitment to its collective defense. Such language should be followed with actions designed to reassure NATO’s newer members to the east that the system of mutual protection will be wholly maintained, as well as to communicate to Russia  that the post-Soviet order in Europe is not to be overturned. For example, requests from Poland or Baltic States for increased NATO military presence on their soil should be answered affirmatively and immediately with additional deployments of troops and materials. The West’s demonstration of its commitment to common defense does not “pour fuel on the fire”; bullies shy away from shows of force, not simply spoken words.

The events in Ukraine since February 28 have also provided a stark reminder for Georgia and Moldova (as well as some of the Central European post-communist states like Poland, Latvia and Estonia) of their weakness and vulnerability when it comes to dealing with Russia. And as we have seen of late in the Middle East, Putin’s aggressively assertive Russia behaves in an equally opportunistic manner there. Aid packages, trade deals, diplomatic postures – these and other instruments at the West’s disposal stand to be significantly more effective if its governments are proactive and consistent in showing their continued support for its allies and partners. Without the West’s vociferous commitment and consequent action, an emboldened, authoritarian Russia will readily take advantage of crises and their aftermath, leaving the international order less democratic and secure, and Western influence greatly diminished.

About the authors:
Richard Kraemer is an associate scholar at the Project on Democratic Transitions at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia. Maia Otarashvili is a research associate at FPRI, and the program coordinator of its Project on Democratic Transitions. An earlier version of this article was published in Arabic in the April 2014 issue of Al Majalla magazine and can be found here.

Source:
This article was published at FPRI and may be accessed here.

Notes:
[1] A breakaway region of eastern Moldova with a significant proportion of Russian-speakers and 1200 Russian troops stationed there.

[2] Czech Republic, Croatia, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.

[3] Adam Taylor “Why Kazakhstan and Belarus are watching Crimea very, very carefully,” Washington Post, March 11, 2014, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/03/11/why-kazakhstan-and-belarus-are-watching-crimea-very-very-carefully/

[4] Thomas de Waal, “An Offer Sargsyan Could Not Refuse,” Carnegie Moscow Center, September 4, 2013, http://carnegie.ru/eurasiaoutlook/?fa=52841

[5] Adrian Basora, Maia Otarashvili, Hannah Lidicker, “Ukraine and the Future of the Western Democratization Agenda,” Geopoliticus, The FP+RI Blog, February 21, 2014, http://www.fpri.org/geopoliticus/2014/02/ukraine-and-future-western-democratization-agenda

[6] President Obama’s speech on Ukraine during his March 17, 2014 visit in Mexico, http://www.whitehouse.gov/photos-and-video/video/2014/03/17/president-obama-speaks-ukraine

[7] Executive Order of Barack Obama, President of the United States, “Executive Order — Blocking Property of Certain Persons Contributing to the Situation in Ukraine,” The White House Office of the Press Secretary, March 6, 2014, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/03/06/executive-order-blocking-property-certain-persons-contributing-situation

[8] Laura Smith-Spark, Diana Magnay, Nick Paton Walsh, “Ukraine Crisis: Early Results Show Crimea Votes to Join Russia,” CNN News, March 16, 2014, http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/16/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/

[9] Executive Order of Barack Obama, President of the United States, “Executive Order — Blocking Property of Additional Persons Contributing to the Situation in Ukraine,” The White House Office of the Press Secretary, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/03/17/executive-order-blocking-property-additional-persons-contributing-situat

[10] Michael Gordon and Steven Lee Meyers, “Obama Calls Russia Offer on Syria Possible ‘Breakthrough’,” New York Times, September 9, 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/10/world/middleeast/kerry-says-syria-should-hand-over-all-chemical-arms.html.

[11] United Nations Security Council Resolution 2118, http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/RES/2118(2013).

[12] Pieter D. Wezeman, SIPRI Yearbook 2013: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2013) p. 269.

[13] “Iran’s Rouhani Acknowledges Chemical Weapons Killed People in Syria,” Reuters, August 24, 2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/24/us-syria-crisis-iran-idUSBRE97N06P20130824.

[14] Jonathan Saul and Parisa Hafezi, “Iran, Russia working to seal $20 billion oil-for-goods deal: sources,” Reuters, April 2, 2014, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/02/us-iran-russia-oil-idUSBREA311K520140402.

[15] Russia’s adversarial stance on Iranian sanctions should be seen as part of its efforts to remove sanctions as a tool of the UN; see George A. Lopez, “Russia and China: Sabotaging U.N. with Vetoes,” CNN News, February 8, 2012, http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/08/opinion/lopez-russia-sanctions-cold-war/.

[16] Michele Nichols, “Factbox: U.N. Security Council action on the Syrian conflict”, Reuters, February 22, 2014, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/22/us-syria-crisis-un-resolutions-idUSBREA1L0RU20140222.

[17] “Russia, Egypt Reach Initial $3 Bln Arms Deal – Report”, RIANovosti, Februry 14, 2014, http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140214/187524953/Russia-Egypt-Reach-Initial-3-Bln-Arms-Deal–Report.html.

[18] Avi Shlaim, The Iron Wall: Israel and the Arab World, (London, UK: Penguin Press, 2001), p. 313.

[19] Andrej Kreutz, Russia in the Middle East: Friend or Foe? (Connecticut, US: Greenwood Publishing Group, 2007), p. 41.

[20] Mohamad Ghazal, “Nuclear Commission Preparing for Two Agreements with Russian Reactor Vendor,” Jordan Times, March 10, 2014, http://jordantimes.com/nuclear-commission-preparing-for-two-agreements-with-russian-reactor-vendor.

[21] “Jordan, Russia Set to Increase Cooperation,” Jordan Times, November 6, 2013, http://jordantimes.com/jordan-russia-set-to-increase-cooperation.

[22] Jason Bush, “Ukraine’s financial fall-out exposes Russia’s economic weakness,” Reuters, March 3, 2014, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/us-urkaine-crisis-russia-economy-analysi-idUSBREA221D020140303.

[23] Country profile – Russia, Observatory of Economic Complexity at the MIT Media Lab, http://atlas.media.mit.edu/profile/country/rus/.

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Ukraine: Tear Gas In Donetsk As Activists Seize Prosecutor’s Office

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May Day celebrations in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, have turned violent as pro-autonomy activists seized the local Prosecutor’s Office. Police responded with tear gas and stun grenades but later relinquished their weapons.

The storming of the Donetsk Region Prosecutor’s Office began as several dozen shield-holding protesters pelted rocks and petrol bombs at the building while chanting “Fascists!,” as they tried to break in.

Around 15 people sustained injuries, including gunshot wounds, as a result of the storm, Ria Novosti reported, citing Donetsk officials.

The activists demanded that law enforcers come out of the building and surrender, while about 200 police remained inside. Initially, the police hit back with tear gas and stun grenades, but later refrained from using force and took cover under shields as protesters continued to throw stones.

“Some security forces are laying down their shields, letting activists take them,” RT’s correspondent in Ukraine, Paula Slier reported on Twitter.

Eventually, the activists entered the building as the police left, removed the Ukrainian national flag, burned it and replaced it with the flag of the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Donetsk.

The protesters formed a so-called “shame corridor” to let law enforcers out of the building, according to Interfax-Ukraine.

After the police were defeated, the crowd cheered the victors with a “well done!” chant and held a demonstration in front of the building.

May Day celebrations in Donetsk, one of the largest cities in crisis-torn Ukraine, began peacefully, with up to 300 communists marching through the city on Thursday morning. Waving hammer and sickle flags, they chanted: “Fascism will not pass,” and sang Soviet songs.

Later in the day, the communist march was followed by several thousands of anti-government protesters taking to the streets to demand a referendum on more autonomy from Kiev and a release of anti-government protesters.

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World Bank Reaffirms Partnership With Sudan

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The Sudan National Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF-N) was officially closed at a public event led by His Excellency Magdi Yassin, State Minister at the Ministry of Finance and National Economy, and Ms. Bella Bird, World Bank Country Director for Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia. The event was attended by representatives of bilateral and multilateral agencies, leaders from the private sector, media and civil society in Sudan.

The MDTF contributed to several important results to the benefit of the people of Sudan.

  • The fifth national census provided critical information, setting the stage for future programs.
  • Capacity building for key economic functions and public financial management contributing to improved fiduciary oversight and control.
  • Helping 780,000 people access basic health, nutrition and population services.
  • Providing one million people with access to safe water and/or sanitation.
  • Revitalizing rural jobs benefitting 160,692 livestock farmers who doubled their incomes.
  • Helping 130 Gum Arabic Producers Associations to invest and improve production leading to a 120% increase in exports.
  • Enrolling one million children in 567 newly-built/rehabilitated schools and securing an additional US$76.5 m in donor funding for Sudan’s education sector.

“The MDTF’s results stand as an important reminder that, in spite of the very difficult and real challenges facing Sudan, it is possible to achieve important development results”, says Xavier Furtado, the World Bank’s Country Representative in Khartoum. “We must continue to find ways to build on the results achieved to support the needs and aspirations of Sudan’s poor”, he said.

On April 10, the Executive Board of the World Bank approved a new trust fund for Sudan – the Sudan Multi-Partner Fund will operate until December 2019.

“The World Bank maintains an active portfolio of over $100 million in development programs, cutting across a range of sectors such as education and natural resource management,” says Bella Bird, World Bank Country Director. “The new Sudan Multi-Partner Fund is an important addition to our overall partnership with and for the people of Sudan.”

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South Africa Voting Abroad Wraps Up

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Overseas voting wrapped up on Thursday with no major incidents reported, said the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC).

The last voting station in Los Angeles, US is to close its doors at 6am South African time.

In a statement, the commission said votes cast at the 116 South African missions abroad are being couriered in secure bags back to Election House in Centurion where they will be reconciled against the list of voters who successfully notified the Chief Electoral Officer of their intention to vote outside the country.

These ballot papers will then be set aside in ballot boxes and securely stored until local voting stations close and the counting of all ballot papers starts on Election Day on 7 May.

“The votes from all international voting stations will be combined into a single international voting district,” said the IEC.

Final numbers of votes cast abroad will therefore only be known once counting is completed on around 8 May. There were approximately 27 000 voters who had successfully applied to vote overseas,” said the IEC.

Initial reports from the combined Electoral Commission and Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) operations centre were that voting had proceeded smoothly at all missions with no major problems encountered.

Turnout was reported to be high at the two largest stations in London, in the UK where 9 863 voters were expected, and Dubai with 1 539.

With the day where South Africans will participate in the country’s fifth democratic elections fast approaching, the next round of special votes will take place on Monday and Tuesday.

“Special votes takes place on 5 and 6 May when special votes are cast at voting stations between 9am and 5pm and through home visits,” noted the IEC.

On Monday and Tuesday, election officials will visit 295 731 voters in their homes, retirement centres, hospitals and health care facilities and other places of residence throughout the country to allow them to cast their ballots in the national election. Of these 292 510 will also cast a provincial ballot, according to the IEC.

In addition 90 698 voters also successfully applied to cast a special ballot on Monday or Tuesday at the voting station where they are registered. This brings to 386 429 the total number of voters who have been approved to cast a special vote.

Of the 22 263 voting stations, 3 593 have no special vote applications and will therefore not open on Monday and Tuesday.

The voting station with the largest number of special votes is in Keimoes, Northern Cape where 454 voters have successfully applied for special votes, 328 of them through home visits.

A total 1 285 voting stations have just one application for special votes.

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India-China: A Water War Over The Brahmaputra? – Analysis

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By Roomana Hukil

Recently, Claude Arpi, renowned scholar on China wrote about how China’s aspirations to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra River were feeding into mounting disagreements between New Delhi and Beijing. China has consistently been moving ahead with its dam construction projects and India has been pressing for a negotiation with the government of China to look into the proposed reduction in the diversion of the water flow of the Brahmaputra. Is a water conflict over the Brahmaputra River likely in the near future? What measures must the government in India, which will come to power following the conclusion of the ongoing election, adopt in order to resolve the water-sharing tensions between both states?

Water Conflict? No. Inevitable Tensions? Yes

Discourses over the waters of the Brahmaputra River have been doing the rounds ever since China’s announcement about the construction of three dams on the river last year. Despite diplomatic talks, China is keen to divert the waters from the Brahmaputra. In the past, China did not have a strong raison d’être to divert the flow of the river. China’s Vice Minister of Water Resources, Jiao Yong, stated in 2011 that the Chinese government was not planning to conduct any diversion projects along the Brahmaputra River given that there wasn’t a pressing need.

However, at present, China’s per capita water reserve is approximately 2300 cubic metres – one-fourth of the world’s average. China is, therefore, considered as the 13th most ‘water-poor’ country in the world with 80 per cent of its cities severely water stressed. More so, China’s northern region possesses only 14.5 per cent of the entire country’s water resources. As water supplies tighten, the water quality is degrading, ecology is suffering, and lands are becoming barren. This threatens the country’s economic growth. Thus, the ever-increasing gap in the demand and supply chain in China’s northern region has now pushed the country to move forward with its many dam projects.

China is keen to divert 150 billion cubic meters (BCM) of water and ‘push’ the waters to irrigate northern China. Of this, 50 BCM would be diverted from the Brahmaputra. In October 2013, India asserted the need for a water sharing treaty with China. This came about, following the paranoia generated after the announcement of the 510-MW Zangmu project along the course of the river.

However, although Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh returned with an agreement on sharing water-related information during the monsoon months, there was no mention of the planned diversion of the Brahmaputra. So far, India has been incapable in convincing China into building bilateral cooperation over the Brahmaputra River. The previous government in New Delhi did not want to antagonise bilateral relations with Beijing, and it is possible that the new government will follow suit.

India recognises that it is not in a position to wage a war with China. However, despite tensions and disagreements over common rivers, India has maintained relatively peaceful hydrological relations with its neighbours – with the Indus, Teesta, and Ganga Rivers being cases in point. On no occasion, did India seek to wage war as a means to resolve its water woes. In this light, India may not enter into a conflict with China over the Brahmaputra, but tensions seem probable.

Role of the New Government

The next government in New Delhi needs to assess the interventions made by Beijing. With the mounting demand for water and the absence of a comprehensive water-sharing policy between India, China and Bangladesh, it is certain that the vast water resources of Tibet and the Eastern Himalayas will be debated, continually. Irrespective of whether a significant diversion in the flows takes place or not, a water sharing agreement between the upper and lower riparian states will ensure that any violation of international norms of water-sharing is avoided.

At present, the northern regions of both China and Bangladesh face an acute water shortage. India, being a middle riparian state, too may have to bear the brunt in an event of diversion of the Brahmaputra waters; and it will directly impact the North-eastern region. The Indian government lags far behind China in terms of tapping the Brahmaputra’s water.

India’s hydro-power potential is 84,044 megawatts (MW). Approximately 31,857 MW can be accessed by the north-eastern part of the country. However, only three per cent of it is presently being utilised. The government recently sanctioned an 800 MW hydro-electric project on the Brahmaputra in Arunachal Pradesh, and there are more plans to generate 55,000 MW of hydro-power by constructing mega dams.

With both India and China making large scale interventions along the Brahmaputra, they are ignoring the possible implications on the ecology. The next government in New Delhi needs to cater to these concerns and push for a comprehensive tripartite water sharing treaty with all three riparian states.

Roomana Hukil
Research Officer, IReS, IPCS
Email: Roomana@ipcs.org

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Security Regroupings In Asia-Pacific – Analysis

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President Barack Obama’s just-concluded swing to four Asian capitals sent a clear message to the world that the US is going to stay in Asia, a reaffirmation of his rebalancing strategy to Asia, much against the widely speculated view that the US would remain bogged down in the Middle East and Afghanistan.

While in Japan, Obama openly took the position that the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands are Japanese territory and come under Article 5 of the Japan-US Security Treaty, much to the displeasure of the Chinese. South Korea being in sorrow because of the ferry disaster, Obama could not achieve anything significant, except that he warned North Korea that a fourth nuclear test by it is unacceptable and would invite further sanctions. His trip to Malaysia was significant that it came after 1966 when Lyndon Johnson had set foot in this Asian country. His most significant achievement came from the Philippines trip, where he clinched a 10-year defence agreement and a clear demonstration of renewed US engagement in the region.

A development that took place around this time but less noticed by security and strategic analysts was the talks the visiting Japanese Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera had with his Australian counterpart David Johnson in Perth to expand technological cooperation on defense equipment following Japan’s relaxation of a decades-old arms embargo. More significant was Johnson’s endorsement of Abe’s move to lift Japan’s ban on the right to collective self-defence.

Military Pact with the Philippines

What does the military pact with the Philippines mean for Asian security? Undoubtedly, it will allow US fighter jets and a larger presence of American troops in the military bases of the Asian nation, thereby give America’s Asia ‘pivot’ some military muscle. The much-trumpeted strategic ‘pivot’ to the Asia-Pacific as a bold and compelling concept signalling a major shift in US defense policy in 2011 had come under criticism on the ground that it lacked real military muscle behind it. That argument is now rubbished with the military pact with the Philippines.

In the wake of Chinese assertiveness in regional territorial issues in recent times, the Obama administration had been labouring to get the agreement signed for some time. The US naval base at Subic Bay was the largest US military installation in the world before the Philippines government ejected the US military in 1992, by creating a constitutional amendment to ban foreign military bases. That ban forced the US to withdraw from the 60,000 acre (24,280 hectare) Subic Bay naval base and terminated an American military presence dating to when the US wrested the Philippines from Spain 1898.

The present government bypasses this ban. With the Chinese showing aggressiveness to seek control of land in the region, the Philippines might have thought expulsion of US forces in 1992 was the greatest geopolitical regret. The new accord corrects now this historical wrong. Under the new agreement the US military will be able to send ships and planes to Clark Air Base and the Subic Bay Naval Base. These were the former US bases until 1992, now owned by the Philippines, both for commercial and military use.

Earlier about a decade ago, China occupied Mischief Reef, a part of the Kalayaan Island Group that the Philippines views as its territory. That time, China claimed almost 85 per cent of the South China Sea. To counter this, the Philippine government negotiated a “visiting-forces agreement” with the US in 1999. China remained undeterred. The Philippines has taken up the South China issue at the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague.

The contested shoal – called Ayungin in the Philippines and Ren’ai Reef in China – lies within Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. The new accord is expected to discourage any provocative activities that could lead to armed conflict. Even Malaysia endorsed for the first times this stance, saying that territorial and maritime disputes in the area should be resolved through international arbitration that uses the Law of the Sea Treaty as its framework.

The bases do not belong to the US. The accord does not provide for establishing US bases but are being borrowed for a “rotational presence” of troops and equipment. It will entail moving US ships and planes to the Philippines more frequently as well as engaging in more training exercises with the country’s forces. The US military has sent rotations of Special Operations troops to train Filipino soldiers in counterinsurgency tactics against Islamist extremists since 2002. The new 10-year agreement imposes no apparent limits on the number of ships and fighter jets that the US can bring into the country.

Besides the China factor and Philippines’ maritime dispute with China, the other issue that made the accord politically viable was the US assistance to the Philippines after typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest on record in the Philippines, left more than 5,000 people dead in November 2013. That time, the US rushed in aid, hundreds of Marines, and a US Navy carrier group with 5,000 US troops and 80 aircraft, something similar to Operation Tomodachi following the March 11 disaster in Japan two years earlier. Such a gesture had created much goodwill throughout Philippines.

The present agreement will allow the Pentagon to pre-position US troops and equipment to better respond to future such disasters. Critics, however, say that the US strategy during the typhoon was an effort to bolster the US military’s chances to regain the use of the Philippines bases. They also accuse the government of lack of transparency as no copy of the agreement has been made available to the public, keeping the Senate too in the dark.

The agreement is seen mostly, though, as a pointed message to China not to assert its control over the South China Sea. China openly opposes a heightened US presence in the area. China has had a number of tense standoffs with the Philippines in the South China Sea. But Obama made it clear by remarking: “Our goal is not to counter China. Our goal is not to contain China. Our goal is to make sure international rules and norms are respected.” The pact with the Philippines may, therefore, reassure several Asian countries embroiled in territorial disputes with China, especially in the South China Sea. Obama stressed that use of tactics of coercion and intimidation to manage such disputes are against international norms and international law, and must therefore be abjured.

According to Evan Medeiros, the National Security Council’s senior director for Asian Affairs, It demonstrates that the US wants “a constructive relationship with China” but also is determined to pursue policies based on its strategic objectives and those of its allies. The new defence cooperation agreement will not only increase US presence in the region but also will “justify an increase of US military assistance to the Philippines as a major non-NATO ally”, observes Rommel Banlaoi, executive director of the Philippine Institute or Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research. So far US forces were too concentrated in a few places in Asia and there was a need to spread across other parts of Asia, especially when there are threats of ballistic missiles targeted at the US.

Yet, the memory of successive US administrations that supported the dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos until 1986 because he allowed US military bases to stay continues in some pockets. A small group of dissenters now question the constitutionality of the new accord because the Philippine Constitution adopted in 1987 a year after Marcos was deposed, banning foreign bases or forces on Philippine soil. They also remember that roughly 1 in 10 Filipinos died during the Filipino-American War from 1898 to 1902, which resulted in the Philippines becoming a US colony.

This group sees the new military accord as a painful reminder of former US military occupation. The US developed enormous bases before the Japanese took them over in World War II, and returned to them after the defeat of the Japanese and the independence of the Philippines in 1946. The US gave up the bases in 1992 after the Philippines Senate refused to extend the lease. However, now the fear of a rising China overrides the concerns of the dissenters with past bitter memory.

The national mood has perceptively shifted in accepting the American forces, despite the adoption in 1987 of the “anti-base” Constitution. Famous political figures who had campaigned vigorously against the bases are now retired or inactive. Those opposed to welcome the US forces back are small in number, including few intellectuals.

Even while Obama’s effigy was burnt and placards saying “Obama Out” and “Philippines Not for Sale” were displayed, the new military accord was smoothly signed inside the Malacanang Palace. The Philippine Inquirer, a leading newspaper, editorialized, “We have long advocated that any enhancement in defense cooperation between the Philippines and the United States must have the consent of the senate…. Malacanang’s failure to submit the agreement to a largely friendly Senate is inexplicable.” Others opined that the agreement “enhances security for the region”. Clearly, fear of a rising China lurks in the background.

Both Obama and President Benigno Aquino were careful not to attribute the agreement directly to concerns about China’s territorial claims. Neither did they mention the Philippines’ claims to the Paracel islands, some of which are held by China. They also avoided mentioning China’s takeover of the Scarborough shoal west of Subic Bay, a rich fishing ground that the Philippine says is within its territorial limits.

Japan-Australia tie-up in defence technology

The other significant development in the region was Japan-Australia talk shop on arms technology. Onodera’s talks with Johnson were preceded by a summit in Tokyo between Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott and his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe in early April 2014. Both leaders agreed to begin negotiations on forming a framework for jointly making defence equipment.

A joint declaration on security cooperation under the first Abe government in 2007, committing to deepen security ties, is already in place. An agreement is likely to be reached when the 2+2 foreign and defence ministerial talks are held in Tokyo in June 2014. They are to discuss how to upgrade the interoperability of their respective defence organisations and to expand practical military cooperation, including joint drills. This is significant in the wake of Japan loosening guidelines on the transfer of defense equipment and technology on 1 April as a starting point of Abe government’s strategy to rework on Japan’s defence and security policies.

The Abe government is trying to bolster security ties with Australia in the light of China’s growing military presence and assertiveness in the region. The two defence chiefs are of common view that they would not tolerate any attempts by any country to change the status quo by force in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, in an apparent reference to China.

Australia evinced interest in Japan’s advanced submarine technology. The Japanese technology in question is, as Onodera said, “highly confidential”. As mentioned, Japan adopted guidelines on the transfer of defence equipment and technology on 1 April as a part of Abe’s plan to rework on Japan’s defence and security policies. There is a strong domestic constituency which looks critically Japan’s new policy drives and this would compel Abe to walk tightrope and force him to implement his new policy in an incremental manner.

That Japan is trying to boost security ties with countries like Australia and India in light of China’s growing military presence and assertiveness in the region is without question and the strategy is legitimate. Both the countries have agreed to increase joint exercises in marine rescue and disaster relief operations with the US. Japan dispatched two P-3C aircraft to Australia’s Pearce Air Force Base, near Perth, to join a massive multinational search for the missing Malaysian Airlines MH370 jet, which vanished with 239 people on board.

The defence agreement opens the way for Australian access to advanced systems that could greatly increase the power of a new submarine fleet while saving billions of dollars. China has objected to Australian security ties with Japan in the past but it appears both Japan and Australia are moving at a “modest and evolutionary” step in a longstanding alliance. This is the next step towards upgrading the security relationships since the security declaration signed by John Howard and Abe in April 2007 before both leaders lost power.

The Joint Declaration for Security Cooperation included military exchanges, joint exercises, peace-keeping cooperation and counter-terrorism. That time too, China showed opposition. The 2+2 dialogue forum envisaged then was held once in June 2007 and then lapsed when Kevin Rudd took office. Abbott now wants to revive it.

This time, Australia has expressed interest in Japan’s submarine technology, including a diesel-electric propulsion system regarded as the best of its kind in the world. As Australia launches its drive to acquire a new submarine fleet by allocating billions of dollars, it finds Japan’s 4,200-tonne Souryu-class of attack submarine as an ideal “drive train” for future Australian vessels in its Collins-class replacement fleet plan. However, since this submarine technology is seen as too sensitive, a decision was made to start joint research on marine hydrodynamics instead. So, almost 72 years after Japanese midget submarines attacked Sydney Harbour killing 21 sailors, Australia could buy Japanese subs for its $30 billion replacement program. Abbott had dispatched Australia’s defence purchasing guru Warren King, head of the Defence Material Organisation, on a top-secret mission to Japan in January ahead of his own trip in April to open negotiations with Japan’s defence agency for possible access to its Souryu class submarines.

Australia has been examining alternatives for almost seven years. The Abbott government has made it clear that local shipbuilders such as ASC would need to prove its credentials as a competitive and skilled shipyard as no special favour is likely to be made.

Australian Navy’s six Collins Class boats were built at ASC shipyard at Port Adelaide. The Defence Minister made it clear that “the government is not a job-creation agency for local shipbuilders”. The Japanese vessels cost about $600 million each, or less than half the price of an Australian-made alternative. Thus the 4200-tonne (submerged) Souryu submarines are seen an ideal fit to replace the ageing 3400-tonne Collins boats. Australia would be keen too to use the Japanese technology to extend the life of the Collins boats beyond the late 2020s.

Before flying to China from Japan and Korea, Abbott made it clear that Australia’s enhanced security cooperation with Japan should not raise concerns in China. When China itself has beefed up its own security ties with Australia in recent years by endorsing a “defence engagement action plan” in January 2014 allowing for greater cooperation on maritime engagement and high-level visits, it makes no rationale why China should have any objection if Japan and Australia engage similarly. In fact, the deputy chief of staff of the People’s Liberation Army, Wang Guanzhong visited Australia in January 2014 for talks.

So far Australia has not taken any side in the territorial disputes between China and other nations, including Japan, but upholds the principle that those disputes should be resolved peacefully. Australia opposes any change in the status quo, if the same is brought about by force or by the threat of force. Abbott reiterated Australia’s stated position that there should be more democracy, more freedom, and more respect for the rule of law. What finally transpired from the defence tech deal with Australia was that it gave Tokyo Australia’s imprimatur to continue along the controversial path of building its military capacity from officially pacifist to something more assertive. With Australia’s forays into the defence tech partnership with Japan and the likely the same between India and Japan soon, “Japan’s re-emergence as a strategic power validated the idea of Tokyo providing a counter-weight to Beijing”.

Factoring India

Besides the US and Australia, India is the only third country with which Japan has a security agreement. With a new government to be hoisted in New Delhi in late May, the prospect of consolidating India-Japan-Australia triangular relationship looks good. The time is opportune to revive the quadrilateral initiative floated by Abe in 2007 but died in its infancy because China saw it against it. The visit of India’s foreign secretary Sujatha Singh to Japan in the last week of April to Tokyo and her talks with senior government officials assumes added significance in this light.

During the past one year, there have been two summit meetings between the heads of government of the two countries. In between, the visit of the Japanese Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko was another landmark in India-Japan relations. The new prime minister, when he assumes office, is expected to visit Japan sometime later this year. After Japan relaxed ban on arms exports, India has too evinced interests to engage in arms and technology trade with Japan. Abe’s visit to India in January 2014 has already made an opening and with the decision of 1 April, the vista for greater cooperation in this field looks promising. In view of the concerns about China’s intentions in the Asia-Pacific region, the time is appropriate to revive and invigorate the quadrilateral idea as a confidence-building initiative and also to design a common strategy.

India, Japan and Australia are all trade-oriented nations. Therefore, securing freedom of navigation is a common interest of critical importance to all three countries, which means none of the three can afford to overlook China’s provocative moves. China’s declaration of the air defense identification zone over much of the East China Sea in November 2013 was unnerving to all. Therefore securing freedom of sea and air navigation as per international laws and norms is indispensable and to achieve this, a cooperative approach seems desirable.

Dr. Panda, a leading expert from India on Japan and East Asia issues is currently The Japan Foundation Fellow at the Reitaku University, China, JAPAN. E-mail: rajaram.panda@gmail.com

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Myanmar: Peace In Kachin State? – Analysis

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By Aparupa Bhattacherjee

Ongoing conflicts between the Myanmarese army and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) since 2011 have questioned all the peace deals signed between these two parties. The Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), the political wing of the KIA, had signed a ceasefire agreement with the Myanmarese government in 1994. However, the recurrence of war led to the termination of the agreement in 2011. Several dialogues have been initiated since the 2011 clashes, however all them have failed to establish peace in the region.

What are the obstacles in the path to a successful ceasefire agreement and establishment of peace in the region?

The Game of Peace Talks

The year 2013 witnessed a series of unsuccessful peace deals that started with two meetings between the two parties in Ruili, China in the months of February and March. These peace talks led to the further signing of a preliminary peace deal agreement in May. However, ceasefire was not achieved. Since April 2013, the situation in Kachin started to worsen. A series of attacks by the Myanmarese army around the town of Mansi made the conflict worse. Amid all this, another peace deal was signed in the month of October. These unsuccessful peace deals questions their seriousness and the dedication of both the parties to peace in the region. There have been continuous attacks between the army and KIA. Self-defence and the curbing of smugglers have been used as a pretext by the army for attacks, whereas the KIA is busy playing the blame game.

The first obstacle in the path towards peace in the region is the difference in demands; the government demands that the armed groups should give up their armed struggle in order to establish peace in the country. The armed ethnic group’s demands include not only a federal political system but also a federalist nature of the national army. The Myanmarese army primarily consists of people from the Burman ethnic group and a federalist army will ensure representation from all ethnic groups. Thus, the army will never consent to it. Furthermore there is also an increasing demand that the Myanmarese army should have lesser political authority in the government. The reframing of the 2008 constitution is highly expected to fulfil at least some of the demands.

A Long Way to Go

Second, although the government is pursuing a ceasefire agreement with the KIO, they are not clear about the plan of action after the ceasefire. If a ceasefire agreement is signed without the withdrawal of the Myanmarese army from the region and the reallocation of the disbanded KIO army, it will face the same plight as the 1994 ceasefire agreement. The readymade option that government prescribes to all dissolved militias is their recruitment in the border security forces. This idea had been refused by all the ethnic groups including the KIO.

Third, peace cannot be achieved unless there is trust between the two parties. During a peace talk in 2012, the Myanmarese army took the advantage of the unpreparedness of the KIO army and attacked one of the pivotal check posts under the KIO’s control. Furthermore, the continuous air strikes and attacks in order to capture important road links with the region such as the Mandalay-Bhamo road and others have deepened the mistrust. The army has been severely criticised for alleged chemical weapon attacks; and there have been several cases when the army has used humanitarian aid vehicle to enter a particular town or village. All these factors make the trust-building process difficult.

Fourth, the Kachin region is rich in mineral resources, which has led to a flood of investments by various national and international companies. Thus in the name of protecting these investments in a conflict area, the army has been installed in the region in huge numbers.

The Chinese Angle

Fifth, China is playing a significant role in the peace dialogues between the KIO and the Myanmarese government. However, China’s presence is proving to be an obstacle. China has its own stakes in peace in Kachin. Kachin is situated next to the China-Myanmar border, and peace will lead to a stable border. Due to the conflict, there has been an influx of Kachin migrants into the bordering towns of China. It is also jeopardising several Chinese investments in the region. China also does not want the US to play any substantial role in these peace talks and therefore hinders any effort by the parties to internationalise the issue, which could further delay progress.

Both the government and the KIO need to understand that in order to establish peace, signing peace deals and ceasefire agreements is not enough – steps should be taken by both parties to end the conflict on the ground and not just on paper.

Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Research Officer, SEARP, IPCS
Email: aparupa@ipcs.org

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Disposable Consumer Goods At High Human Costs – Analysis

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By Julio Godoy

Hundreds of thousands around the world demonstrate for better working conditions and fair wages on the International Labour Day. However, when May 1 is over, many of these demonstrators go back to their daily reckless consumption patterns, which consider practically all consumer goods as disposable, and therefore support international corporations, which exploit workers and poison the environment.

The garment industry is a most illustrative example of the follies of modern-times consumerism: Take Bella, a German girl living near the city of Bremen: Several times each year, Bella makes a shopping spree to a local fashion store and comes back loaded with clothes.

The store Bella regularly visits belongs to Primark, the Ireland-based clothing retailer, which due to its aggressive price policies has become a European leader in the sector. As Primark announces itself, it is “Adored by fashion fans and value seekers alike (and) is widely established as the destination store for keeping up with the latest looks without breaking the bank.”

“Whatever I wear, I bought it at Primark’s,” Bella says, while pointing at her body. “There, for less than 50 euros, I get a skirt, a blouse, sunglasses, underwear, stockings, and shoes. Because the clothes at Primark’s are so cheap, I don’t even need to wash them. I wear everything once, and then I throw everything away.”

Asked whether she is aware of the human and environmental consequences of such behaviour, Bella shrugs. “I do not know where and how Primark produces its clothes,” she says.

Bella and her likes even publish frenetic video reports on the so-called social media, from YouTube to Facebook, of their shopping sprees in such fashion stores. Regular clients of such stores confess that the shopping sprees are undeserving. “Most of the time, you even have to fight with other clients to grab an item,” Bella admits.

Such consumer behaviour doubtless contributed to the catastrophe of Rana Plaza, the Bangladesh building that housed several garment fabrics, and which collapsed one year ago, on April 2013, killing more 1,134 textile workers, practically all of them women, and injuring up to 2,500 people.

After the catastrophe, remainders of clothes were found in the site, which proved that numerous international fashion brands, from Benetton to Yes Zee, had contracts with the garment factories operating there. Last March, almost one year after the catastrophe, Primark officially admitted that one of its suppliers, New Wave Bottoms, operated in the Rana Plaza building.

A typical worker at the Rana Plaza garment factories earned less than 38 euros per month, roughly 50 percent of what is an estimated living wage for Bangladesh. Björn Weber, Frankfurt-based research and logistics director at the Planet Retail counselling company, said at the time, “The working conditions at the factories were catastrophic.”

Operators at the garment factories had to work 12 hours per day, seven days a week, Weber added.

As Pope Francis, reacting to the news of the building’s collapse, said, “This is slave labour… Not paying fairly… because you are only looking at balance sheets, only looking at how to make a profit.”

It may well be that the clothes Bella regularly bought at Primark’s in Bremen, were manufactured by Rehana Khatun, a Bangladeshi girl of roughly the German girl’s age. Rehana, who used to work as a seamstress at one of the numerous garment factories of Rana Plaza, lost her legs during the catastrophe, and will be handicapped for the rest of her life.

Deadliest

The collapse of the Rana Plaza building was the deadliest garment-factory accident in history. According to the Bangladesh Fire Service and Civil Defence, the upper four floors, which housed the factories, were built without a permit.

Despite evidence that the structure of the Rana Plaza was severely damaged, and that banks and other businesses located in the lower floors of the building had closed for fear of a collapse, the garment factories continued operating.

The disaster moved the Bangladesh government, in cooperation with employers’ and workers’ lobby groups, and with the support of international organisations, such as the International Labour Organisation (ILO), to draw a plan of action, which includes building and fire safety assessments, labour inspections, and occupational safety and health, rehabilitation and skills training for survivors.

Additionally, a compensation fund was set up, through which the international corporations that contracted with the garment factories operating in the building would indemnify the families of the victims of the catastrophe. The fund was supposed to collect about 40 million U.S. dollars to compensate the more than 3,000 workers injured or the families of those killed.

However, according to official figures, as of April 24, 2014, only half of the brands involved in the catastrophe have contributed or promised to contribute about 16 million U.S. dollars to the fund.

In March 2014, almost one year after the catastrophe, Primark announced that it would immediately “begin making long-term payments to the 580 workers (or their dependents) of (our) supplier, New Wave Bottoms, which occupied the second floor of the eight storey building, who died, or were injured as a result of the Rana Plaza building collapse in Bangladesh.”

The payment, Primark added, will be met in full, in cash, and will amount to some 9 million U.S. dollars.

Primark also announced a new campaign to “to reduce the environmental impact of manufacturing processes.” To that end, last February, Primark committed “to work with industry and stakeholders including (the non-governmental environmental organisation) Greenpeace to ban the use of all hazardous chemicals from the supply chain.”

But another NGO, Clean Clothes Campaign, which advocates the improvement of working conditions and supporting the empowerment of workers in the global garment and sportswear industries, complains that many international fashion brands have so far failed to publicly commit to the fund, “despite having links to the factories in the building.”

These brands are Adler Modemaerkte, Grabalok (Store 21), Manifattura Corona, Ascena Retail, Gueldenpfennig, Matalan, Auchan, Iconix (Lee Cooper), NKD, Benetton, J C Penney, PWT (Texman), Carrefour, KANZ/ Kids Fashion Group, Yes Zee, and Cato Fashions.

Questions of compensations and safety measures could be avoided if consumers across the world did not ignore the ethical consequences of their “fashion addiction”, labour experts and social scientists say.

Hubertus Thiermeyer, leader of the trade section at the German Ver.di union, says:”When you buy a t-shirt for less than two euros, you must be aware that somebody else in the world is paying a huge share of the labour and environmental costs you don’t care to own.”

Dictatorship of consumerism

For social scientist Harald Welzer, director the Centre for Interdisciplinary Memory Research in Essen, a joint research department belonging to the German universities of Bochum, Dortmund and Duisburg, a dictatorship of consumerism has been established across the industrialised world, with the objective of precisely eradicating such ethical considerations.

Welzer has even coined a word, “IKEA-isation”, in reference to the Swedish furniture giant, to describe the industrial trend of transforming formerly durable consumer goods into disposable items, from clothing to electronic devices.

Welzer is right: The serviceable life of electronic devices, for instance of cellular phones, has fallen considerable, and will continue to do so, not because the appliances break down, but because the corporations’ merchandising techniques persuade consumers that they need “up to date.”

“During the past decade, residents of the Western world have doubled the amount of clothes they buy,” Welzer said. “The IKEA-isation of the world progresses at a furious pace, and consumers should be ashamed of themselves.”

Alas, they are not: One year after the collapse of the Rana Plaza, brands such as Primark continue to grow. After having conquered the fashion addicts in Europe, Primark recently announced the opening in 2015 of its first store in the U.S., in Boston, Massachusetts.

In a typical consumer reaction, and exactly one year after the Rana Plaza catastrophe, a U.S. fashion blogger applauded the decision: “We nearly woke up our neighbours this morning with all of our screaming and shouting when we read the news that Primark is coming to (Boston) … We’re talking (of) sneakers for 13 U.S. dollars, sunglasses for three dollars, and swimsuits for 20 dollars!”

Such a behaviour flips the bird to the sufferings of Rehana Khatun and her likes, and to the good intentions campaigns launched by organisations such as the ILO after the collapse of the Rana Plaza.

Still, ILO insists. “Rana Plaza is a call for global action on decent working conditions,” ILO Director-General Guy Ryder said at a high-level meeting held early April in Copenhagen on garment and textiles production in Bangladesh.

“We cannot wait for future disasters before we act to make the world’s factories and workplaces safe and decent places to work,” said Ryder at the event, Post Rana Plaza: a Vision for the Future, organized by the Government of Denmark in Copenhagen. Indeed, we cannot: If only consumers would care.

Julio Godoy is an investigative journalist and IDN Global Editor. He has won international recognition for his work, including the Hellman-Hammett human rights award, the Sigma Delta Chi Award for Investigative Reporting Online by the U.S. Society of Professional Journalists, and the Online Journalism Award for Enterprise Journalism by the Online News Association and the U.S.C. Annenberg School for Communication, as co-author of the investigative reports “Making a Killing: The Business of War” and “The Water Barons: The Privatisation of Water Services”

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The Establishment Of A Special Court And Transitional Justice In Kosovo – Analysis

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Securing convictions for war crimes (regardless of the ethnicity of victim or perpetrator) is only one aspect of transitional justice. What is just as important is the perception that justice is fairly pursued and adequately addressed for all sides, in order for reconciliation to be embraced.

By Dr. Anita McKinna

On 24th April the Kosovo Assembly voted in favour of establishing a Special Court to investigate the allegations in Dick Marty’s 2010 report regarding organ trafficking by KLA members during the Kosovo war. This vote was widely praised by both EU and US officials, who focused on the improvement that this court will make to Kosovo’s international reputation with respect to its justice system. EU High Representative Catherine Ashton declared that ‘I commend the government and members of the Assembly for their leadership and commitment to justice, demonstrated through what we acknowledge to be a sensitive and difficult decision. The decision taken today by members of the Assembly will strengthen rule of law and improve the credibility of its international image.  By taking such a decision, the leaders of Kosovo have opted for a better, European future for Kosovo and its citizens.’ US Ambassador to Kosovo Tracey Jacobson similarly asserted that ‘today’s vote by the Kosovo Assembly was a vital step towards establishing a Kosovo court that can credibly resolve serious allegations in the 2010 Council of Europe Report… Today’s vote paves the way for a process that the international community will view as credible, and that will help close this difficult chapter in Kosovo’s history.’

The decision to establish such a court has not, however, met with universal praise, but has instead raised questions both inside Kosovo and internationally about how effectively such a court can prosecute such crimes and indeed whether it is necessary at all, given the existence of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, UNMIK and EULEX. Local lawyer Arianit Koci questioned the partiality of the proposed court and whether a newly established court could progress where previous institutions had not:

The number of killings and massacres show that if such a tribunal were to be established, it should be done in Serbia. This does not mean that we are against criminal procedures for suspects, whoever they might be, but we want the same standards to apply for both parties. The request for a tribunal is first of all an attack against all international officials that worked in Kosovo, including EULEX, because they had the competencies to handle war crimes. The issue of witness intimidation, a serious problem, is not a problem that only the Kosovar judiciary faces. Serbia, Croatia and even The Hague tribunal were faced with the same problem. After all, who would be part of this tribunal? Will they be the same people that could not process these crimes while they were working for UNMIK, The Hague or now EULEX? Do we really need another experiment?

Former ICTY Chief Prosecutor Carla del Ponte was similarly wary of whether any new court could bring charges against alleged perpetrators where the ICTY had not. She insisted that ‘all investigations on alleged crimes in Kosovo for which this court is being planned to be established were completed by the Tribunal in The Hague and so far nothing has come of them.’

In addition to such questions about the potential effectiveness of this court, the establishment of a court that will only investigate alleged crimes committed by one side during the war sends a dangerous message that only some alleged war crimes are worthy of being investigated, depending on which side perpetrated them. In recent years there have been numerous protests in Kosovo after arrests of former KLA members on war crimes charges. Frequently the higher number of cases against Kosovar Albanian defendants compared to those with Serb defendants is cited by protesters as evidence of an international bias against Kosovo’s Albanian population. While it should be noted that such a widespread blanket refusal by a significant part of Kosovo’s Albanian population to accept the possibility that war crimes could have been committed by former KLA members has been a previously-highlighted issue that should not be defended, and the pursuit of prosecutions for war crimes should be welcomed, the manner in which this is done needs to be carefully considered in a delicate post-war society. Securing convictions for war crimes (regardless of the ethnicity of victim or perpetrator) is only one aspect of transitional justice. What is just as important, especially when looking long term, is the perception that justice is fairly pursued and adequately addressed for all sides, in order for reconciliation to be embraced. There is a danger that this new court will increase perceptions within Kosovo’s Albanian population of anti-KLA bias in the pursuit of war crimes cases, and that this in turn will damage inter-ethnic relations and thus inhibit the wider process of post-war reconciliation.

Dr. Anita McKinna is an Australian academic researcher based in Cambridge. She has been researching issues related to Kosovo and the Balkans since the late 1990s. She completed her PhD on the international administration of Kosovo at the University of Melbourne, after having attained an MPhil on the post-war reconstruction of Kosovo from Cambridge University. She has published articles on the interaction of international administrators and local political actors in post-war Kosovo in several international academic journals.

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The Alchemy Of Interest, Usury And Modernity: A Review Of SM Goodson’s Inside The Reserve Bank: The Origins And Secrets Of Central Banking Exposed

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A Review of SM Goodson’s Inside the Reserve Bank: The Origins and Secrets of Central Banking Exposed (Norfolk and Good, 2013)

One of the most difficult things to explain to American university students is how capitalism and communism share far more in common than they do in conflict. In fact, regardless of how it is explained, the old saw that the two approaches are “opposites” can never quite penetrate. Even worse, explaining to students and their bewildered parents that the US banking and industrial conglomerates financed the Soviet Red revolution and built Soviet industry is also maddeningly impossible.

One simple way to explain it is to say that, for bankers in the modern era, the state’s control of the entire economy from one place is what bankers believe paradise to look like. There is one plan, one banking system and one social system in place; this means that banks merely forward the cash, both expecting the state, not the economy as such, to reimburse them with the requisite interest. In other words, the command economy is the most congenial to banks. There is no necessary connection between private banking and a state-owned economy. It is just as simple for a banker to work for the Party as it is for Goldman-Sachs.

Capitalism and socialism are based on materialism. Production and utility alone are considered goods, and efficiency in methods is considered the sine qua non of ethical contemplation. Both systems are oriented to technology, hold to a linear view of history, and seek the mechanization of all aspects of humanity. As they both develop, the economic system and the state merge into a single machine. The error of the libertarians has always been their insistence that the state and private capital are opposed. Quite the opposite is true. Large concentrations of capital are deeply embedded in the state, using it as both a personal bodyguard and as a regulator that keeps market entry impossibly high. The defeat of the Justice Department by Microsoft in 2010-2012 shows the imbalance of power between private capital and the state.

This might seem tangential to a work on banking. For the typical isolated and tenured professor of political economy, it would be. For those, such as Mr. Goodson, who served on the Board of the Central Bank of South Africa for many years, isolated academia seems absurd. Mr. Goodson was anything but isolated, and he witnessed the tight control of economic life by banking conglomerates the world over. He saw it in vivid colors.

This book is not a study in technical economics. It is, thankfully, a study in history. Goodson realizes what most economists do not: that to grasp any economic phenomenon, it must be seen as a product of many decades of historical development. Each aspect of the whole continually reinforces the other, and the whole itself is constantly changing, like an organism, as history continues to present new challenges, new projects and new victims.
In other words, the secret life of banks did not merely occur because a group of men off the coast of Georgia wanted it to. They themselves were actors within a historical stream that goes back to the first Mesopotamian civilizations and reached its ancient zenith in Rome. The fact that the whole has continuously been based on the same set of assumptions regardless of the civilization within which it was embedded is impressive, and it calls out for detailed analysis. Given the political fallout from such honesty, however, Mr. Goodson needed to resign himself to the fact that few in the mainstream will even mention his work, let alone accept it.

There is one constant in history that is manifestly clear in this work: that the essential distinction between monarchy and republicanism (broadly speaking) is economic. Republics are normally oligarchies, or at least contain its seeds. Monarchies, since they are perpetually at war with their own nobility, often reject the assumptions of oligarchy. Whether it be the national socialist party of China or Belarus, the royal bank of St. Petersburg or the centralized dictatorship of the Augustan era, all forms of strong statism has made war on the banking monopoly. No authoritarian leader will accept competition from an all powerful economic mediator. Of course, there are a few exceptions on both sides, but history has been fairly clear that strong states, those based on traditional authority, reject the alchemy of money and interest.

Rome

Rome rapidly, at the time of Cicero, was already moving away from its Senatorial oligarchy and towards the military empire of Sulla and his successors. The immediate impact, once the dust of the civil wars cleared, was that minting was centralized and usury controlled. Julius Caesar sought to limit interest to 1% monthly and, in a populist move rarely seen, banned its compound increase. Furthermore, any accumulated interest could never exceed the original principle.

In Byzantium, the Roman empire of the East, interest had been officially limited to 5%, give or take, but this could only be enforced under emperors who were strong. Basil II for example, rejected interest altogether and forced wealthy landowners to financially assist poorer peasants. His strength, while common, was usually followed by an aristocratic reaction who placed puppet emperors in Constantinople. However, under such a system, eastern Rome was blessed with a vibrant, populist economy. Her currency was the global standard as far east as China. Peasants were free landholders and feudalism existed nowhere. Inflation did not exist, and trade flows always favored the capital. For this reason, oligarchic states such as Venice, Dubrovnik and the Norman interlopers in Sicily, continually financed Rome’s enemies.

After 1204, when the western Norman Crusaders sacked Constantinople, the dominance of Venetian oligarchs became the order of the day. Byzantium was marked for death once the emperors of the 14th and 15th century gave away their financial autonomy for regular infusions of Venetian money. Having lost all economic independence and seeing the immense wealth of the east flow in interest payments to Italy, Byzantium finally collapsed under an Italian-financed Turkish invasion in 1453. Venice became Turkey’s most significant ally.

There is no economic mystery here. Whenever interest is tightly controlled, the continued compound leakage of cash to banking centers does not exist. This financial hemorrhaging means that value remains where it belongs: with the small businessman and small landholder. Without the geometrically increasing mass of interest, a fraction of today’s total labor was sufficient to maintain monetary stability, necessary supplies and a nobility forced to serve the state rather than rule it. Within the modern system of usury, centralization is unavoidable as compound interest continually increases the flow of real value out of the economy and into the coffers of the cabal.

England

England was no different. Prior to the Norman invasion, Anglo-Saxon England, even after the Viking attacks, existed in a financial golden age. Again, smallholders were the norm, urban trade maintained low prices, and the lack of liquid capital forestalled any noble centralization. Feudalism could not exist under such a system. Usury was banned in Mercia under Offa the Great, and in Alfred’s frantic attempt to centralize power in Wessex against the Danes, he too, refused the “services” of the banking cabal. The Italian banks, however, were quite interested in William’s planned assault on Anglo-Saxondom and to remove Scandinavian influence from England. Usury was permitted, for a time, under the new Norman hegemony. The old Anglo aristocracy was slaughtered, and William imported a new nobility with close ties to Italy. Feudalism made its very first appearance on English soil. Ireland, several centuries later, was also to see the benefits of Norman progress.

Such progress, by the time of Stephen, led to the creation of a banking system charging an average of 33% on collateral lands and 300% on capital (that is, tools in the cities). Within two generations, a full 66% of England’s lands wound up in the hands of Italian and Jewish bankers. This might explain the constant drive to take more and more French land for the Angevin Empire.

This was to be the lot of Norman Britain until the reign of Edward I (d. 1307), who imitated the Byzantines (where many Anglo-Saxons had been serving after 1066) by tightly limiting interest and its accumulation. Kicking the bankers out of the country, he ushered in an age of prosperity unfortunately cut short by the plague. It is no accident that just at the time when Byzantium had given away its economic sovereignty to Venice for the use of their navy, Britain moved in the opposite direction against Italy and Rome.

From the reign of Edward I to the plague, England was prosperous. The working year amounted to 14 weeks, within which all essentials were obtained. The church calendar, in both eastern and western Europe, required between 100 and 140 days off a year, excluding Sunday and the period after Easter. Of course, capitalism was to make war on the church and seek Protestant sanction for eliminating saints days from the calendar altogether. The rule of the small holder had returned for the first time since Edward the Confessor. Unfortunately, this was not to last. The reformation, once Luther’s influence had waned, had different ideas on money.

Once Henry VII had stabilized Britain after the War of the Roses, the time was ripe for the rise of the banks yet again. The reformation and the immorality of Henry VIII gave it the excuse it needed. The reformation was an attempt by the Stuarts to begin centralizing power once the old nobility had slaughtered itself into oblivion. Monastic lands were secularized, land markets developed, and financing long distance trade became a priority. Henry VII became the last gasp of a powerful, traditional state. From Henry VIII to Edward VI to Elizabeth, a new oligarchy had gained power that required the pomp of monarchy to hide behind. Very soon, once it became confident in its role, it required William of Orange to justify itself.

Spain, once Islam was finally ejected, sought to cleans itself of the Sephardi, normally allies of the Muslim Caliphate. Spain’s nationalism was substantial as both church and state were radically reformed and purged. Moving to Amsterdam, the Sephardi rebuilt its banking base, creating a “square” of influence that contained four corners: the grain trade in the Baltic, the Amsterdam banks, Constantinople and the Turkish market, and most importantly, Poland. These represented the overland routes of modernity as grain prices skyrocketed in the west, forcing the east to export more and more.

Under Elizabeth and certainly during and after the English Revolution, Spain was the enemy. Catholic Ireland sought Spanish assistance against Elizabeth’s dispossession of the native Gaels, something that Cromwell was to punish with genocidal harshness. Spain’s importation of silver from the new world threatened the rule of the banks in a graphic way. The banking regime financed the Dutch rebellion against the Spanish as the world’s press spared no rhetorical excess denouncing the Spanish army in northern Europe. British enemies of the banking elite looked to Spain for assistance as well.

Once Charles I was defeated in 1645 and Cromwell instituted a military dictatorship over Britain and Ireland in 1653, the banking regime now had its enemies destroyed and its place assured. William’s gentle occupation of Winchester 30 years later meant that the bankers now had England to use against both France and Spain. It surprised no one that the Jacobites spent much time attacking the banking elite that had taken power with such vehemence. Neither James I or II believed in “divine right” nor did either want to impose a dictatorship. Cromwell alone sought that honor. Yet the James’s were accused of every imaginable crime. James sought religious tolerance, not a “Spanish theocracy” as the Whigs were later to claim. Whiggery was the party of usury and, as such, the party most vehement in seeking war with France, Spain and, eventually, Russia.
Parliament, now the instrument of capitalism and empire, was seeking any excuse to take revenge on Spain. “Democracy” and “ the will of the people” were considered identical to the interest of urban merchants and traders. Britain was now an oligarchy. Roman Catholic rulers were long forbidden to rule in London, regardless of James’ desire for religious neutrality. William’s war with France was financed by the Amsterdam banking establishment, something made quite clear to William himself when he tried to arrange a Stuart marriage, one which remained childless.

Ukraine and Poland

It is certainly no coincidence that the rule of Cromwell and the slow genocide of Irish resistors and English Jacobites occurred at the same time the opposite development was taking place on the other “pole” of the Jewish “trade square.” Population growth in the west, as well as the growing centralization of states, led to an increase in grain demand. This meant, among other things, that the nobility needed to intensify its serfdom over peasants and force more production towards export.

The Polish nobility had given Jews a full monopoly over overland trade, urban life, lease-holding and alcohol. Mainstream sources on Ukrainian history all are forced to admit this. The impotent Polish monarchy sought to gain power, as the case elsewhere, through an alliance with the towns. Seeing this as a threat, the Polish nobles countered this by bringing in Khazar Jews searching for a new home after the fall of Ity’ll centuries before. Not only did they find it, but their mainstream power and success reached such heights that rabbinic claims that the 17th century was a “messianic” time were common. In fact, it was a common claim amongst the more religious Jews that the time of the Messiah was at hand. They got the revolt of Cossack Hetman Bogdan Khmelnytsky instead. Khmelnytsky’s insurrection was the opposite of Cromwell’s. The Cossacks fought against a long standing oligarchy, while Cromwell sought to establish one.

The rising of Khmelnytsky in 1648 was the single event that defined Ukrainian nationalism for eternity. Nothing was the same. Poland almost collapsed. Jews had to flee for their lives. The Crimean Tartars were able to free themselves from vassalage to Turkey. Rome was in a panic as their churches, long associated with usury, were burnt to the ground by Cossacks, well remembering that their existence was based on the ruins of Orthodox churches a century before. Still reeling from the Reformation, Rome now faced the eradication of its existence in the east too. The Patriarch of Jerusalem, Paisios, declared Hetman Khmelnytsky “The Monarch of All Rus.” Russia, Vienna, Prussia and Paris were now able to centralize power and defy Rome. Russia had a particular gripe with Rome since it was the papacy who declared a Crusade against northern Russia in 1256, financed Mongol expansion, and declared the Polish attack on Ukraine a “holy war.” While Paris and Vienna remained Catholic, theirs was a national Catholicism where the crown, not Rome, began selecting bishops. It was not to last.

Rome managed to talk the Crimeans into abandoning the Orthodox Slavs. The death of Hetman Khmelnytsky in 1657 led to a division in the Cossack host between hetmans of the two banks of the Dnieper at war with each other. Hetman Ivan Vyhovsky and Pavlo Teteria sought a Polish alliance, Briukhovetsky in the east went to Moscow, and Doroshenko, in desperation, approached the Turks. In 1708, Hetman Ivan Mazepa allied with the Swedes. Disaster resulted, the old Ukrainian culture was destroyed by Peter I, Turks and Crimean Tartars without mercy. Among Ukrainian historians, this period was known as the “Ruin.”

As Russia moved closer to the Dnieper, Vienna became alarmed at the possible Russification of most of the east (including the Balkans) and mobilized against her. Given some breathing room, Poland recovered her former stability and the nobles returned. A century later, the Cossack Haidaimak rebellions led to the unthinkable: the treaty of “eternal friendship” (that is, the Treaty of Andrusovo, 1667) between Poland and Russia dividing Ukraine between the two empires. The Haidaimak rebellion was crushed by a concerted effort of Moscow and Krakow, and all was precisely as it was before 1648.

Like in England, under Cossack rule, society was divided into counties, with full local democracy and a total lack of interest and usury. The typical results followed: the traditional Slavic smallholder communities reemerged and a basic political and economic equality re-emerged. The gradual encouragement of a Cossack aristocracy, financed by St. Petersburg, led to the imposition of an oligarchy that made it very easy for Catherine II in the middle 18th century to put an end to the Hetmanate forever.

The United States

The decentralized colonies of the US were generally prosperous. Plentiful land, excellent ports and a strong pioneer spirit created an advanced world out of practically nothing. When asked about this, Benjamin Franklin famously remarked:

That is simple. In the colonies we issue our own money. It is called colonial script. We issue it in the proper proportion to the demands of trade and industry to make the products pass easily from the producers to the consumers. In this manner, creating for ourselves our own paper money, we control its purchasing power, and we have no interest to pay no one.1

With one exception – the detestable Alexander Hamilton – the American founders, though differing on nearly every other issue, were of one mind on banking. It was something to be abhorred. The dollar remained steady until 1917. The boom and bust cycles since the Civil War, the vast rise in federal power, World War I and the coming American imperium, however, helped set the stage for a privately owned camarilla in the US as well, popularly known as the “Fed” or the Federal Reserve (“Federal” in this case should be taken as it is in the shipping company “Federal Express”).

The fact is that the fears of the Anti-Federalists were correct: the US government in Washington had become extremely powerful, arrogant and cut off from the common run of Americans. They had long been in thrall to the oligarchy in embryo, soon to burst forth in the form of the Fed, the Rockefeller Empire, the Carnegie Cult, and the warfare state tested in the Spanish American war and in the final months of World War I.

From 1914 to 1920, prices rose 125%, as Goodson depressingly recounts. The dollar lost almost 60% of its value in six years. Federal bonds saw their value drop by 20% at the same time, meaning that older bonds became more dear. Yet, the newer, cheaper bonds led to a recall by the banks which, of course, meant that the money came due.

More instability was caused as the railroads and other modes of transport became more expensive. Small farms, the long standing linchpin of American prosperity, were slowly priced out of existence, which, in practice, meant a massive wealth transfer from the countryside to the cities. Agricultural production dropped by 50%. The war on rustic America was declared, and has yet to end. The deficit was soon to be made up by Agribusiness, made possible by centralized credit attracted to large conglomerates, seen as a safer bet, rather than small businesses.

In 1927, the Fed lowered rates and thus, increased the money supply. This was the reign of the “roaring twenties,” the beginning of the oligarchy as an uncovered, exposed and confident entity without serious resistance. This meant that money was seen as value and power in its own right, detached from actual manufacture. The wealth generated went to the stock market, boosting demand and inflating prices. Margins were augmented through debt, and the price-earnings ratio went as high as 50:1, that is to say, the stock price was many times higher than the actual productive nature of the invested capital. Put differently, stock prices had no relation to the financial health of the firms involved, the productivity of labor, or the consequent value-added.

Thus, in 1927, the US stock market was a fraud. Prices were based on speculative investment, easy money and the perception, one that remains an enigma to psychiatry, that such faux-growth would last forever. It made little difference how healthy the companies were in reality. In 1929, the Fed increased rates to 6%. The signal was clear: the stock market as a whole, saw its value drop by 83%. 10,000 banks became insolvent, and brokers, working on debt bubbles, were ruined.

Russia

Russian economic prosperity and growth commenced at the liberation of the serfs by Alexander II in 1861. Serfs under state control had been freed earlier by Tsar Nicholas I. As is quite often the case, the most autocratic of monarchs were the only ones confident enough to pass legislation in the interests of the peasants. Unlike the liberation of Austrian serfs or the freeing of American slaves, Russian serfs were emancipated with land. The state compensated the eternally indebted nobility and, over time, the peasant was to repay the state. The payments were very low and Tsar Alexander III canceled them altogether. This was just one more nail in the nobility’s coffin.

Russian serfs had never been slaves. Serfdom, a reaction to the Swedish and Polish invasions of the 17th century, affected only southern peasants in the black earth regions. It never existed in the north nor in Siberia. In central Russia, it affected only serfs required to perform labor dues, but by the 1840s, most peasants paid money rent, which meant they were tenants rather than serfs. Serfdom in Russia really meant the guarantee of peasant land ownership and, at the same time, the assurance of noble incomes as they served the state, usually in a military capacity. Since everyone served someone, the system was balanced. Under Tsar Paul and his mother Catherine II, the nobles were liberated from state service and, as a result, became politically sterile.

Peasants had full self-government in the commune, where all posts were elected. The volost, or county government was also wholly elected, with equal representation for all classes. The court system both at the volost and commune level was supported on pure peasant democracy. Communal judges were exclusively peasants, and volost courts had two noble and two peasant representatives. For the most part, Russian nobles were fiscally worse off than the peasantry, drowning in debt and long released from any useful work. They had little to do but buy expensive western luxuries they could not afford. The peasant commune had the right to nullify federal law, and was generally self-sufficient in economics and social life. If anything, tsarist Russia suffered from excess democracy.

In 1861, the volost was replaced by the zemstvo, a county administration with a lower house of peasants and an upper house of nobles, usually poor to middling in wealth. The zemstvo was in charge of education, infrastructure, church life, tax collection and police. There was no part of peasant life that was not based on local democracy. A “land captain,” usually a poor noble, was elected to mediate conflicts between peasants and nobles, and sometimes, peasants would go to the captain if he had a beef with the commune or the zemstvo authorities.

Hence, the freedom of the serfs and the creation of a free press, the zemstvo and an endless array of educational improvements put a bullet in the revolutionary movement, almost entirely financed from Britain. Seeing this as intolerable, Alexander II was assassinated for his trouble in 1881. His son, Alexander III, continued his father’s reform programs but, being a man of immense size and strength, smashed the revolutionaries, rendering them ineffective until his premature death in 1894.

Tsar Alexander III established the Peasant Land Bank in the early 1880s, which gave interest-free loans to peasants and sought to channel investment money into agricultural improvement. Tsar Alexander and his finance minister, Nikolai Bunge, drafted and passed the most comprehensive labor regulations in European history. His son, Nicholas II, continually added to them until the outbreak of World War I.

In labor relations the Russians were pioneers. Child labor was abolished over 100 years before it was abolished in Great Britain in 1867. Russia was the first industrialized country to pass laws limiting the hours of work in factories and mines. Strikes, which were forbidden in the Soviet Union, were permitted and minimal in Czarist times. Trade union rights were recognized in 1906, while an Inspectorate of Labor strictly controlled working conditions in factories. In 1912 social insurance was introduced. Labor laws were so advanced and humane that President William Taft of the United States was moved to say that “the Emperor of Russia has passed workers’ legislation which was nearer to perfection than that of any democratic country.” The people of all races in the Russian Empire had an equality of status and opportunity, which was unparalleled in the modern world. His Imperial Majesty Czar Nicholas II (1894-1917) and his state bank had created a worker’s paradise that was unrivaled in the history of mankind.2

There is no mystery here. The equally autocratic German emperor passed similar legislation a bit later. In both cases, economic growth in both agriculture and industry averaged 15% yearly. Population growth boomed, and, in the Russian case, peasants were given free land and tools in lush, southern Siberia (not the frozen north) for the sake of colonizing this vast empty location about twice the size of the US. By 1905, 90% of Russian arable land was in the hands of peasants. No other industrialized society could match this. Peasants were buying noble land in massive quantities as Russia, at the same time, was almost completely self-sufficient in her production and resources. Her domestic market accounted for almost 99% of her production, and she needed nothing from abroad. All she received from the west was ideology.

Moving southward, Georgia requested Russian protection as a buckler against her Islamic neighbors. The XIII Dalai Lama of Tibet, Thoubten Gyamtso, requested Tsar Nicholas II to take his country under Russian protection to defend this Buddhist monarchy from drowning in British opium. Several Russians served as tutors to Tibetan nobles and the Dalai Lama himself. Russia was seen as the Savior of all who fought British and Chinese imperialism.
Tsar Nicholas II was tempted to make war on Manchu China, since China held the western Buddhist populations and the Tibetans in thrall. Several million Muslims also were held under Chinese Manchu rule. Russia was called the “White Savior” long prophesied by Chinese sages. Making matters worse for the British, oil was discovered in Baku, today’s Azerbaijan, then part of the Russian empire. The Rothschild dynasty declared war on Russia, financed Russian revolutionaries and importantly, created an anti-Russian coalition with France.

The Rothschild alliance was created in retaliation for Russian success. It was based on financing Turkey, the Turkish tribes of the Russian south, Persia, and, most menacing of all, Japan. The colonial Turkish occupation of the Balkans was given the Rothschild’s seal of approval since, without Turkey, pro-Russian states like Serbia and Bulgaria would fill the vacuum. The British press praised the Turks as liberators from “Orthodox superstition” and held the Russians to be “Mongols” whose “fangs” must be kept out of the Balkans.

Russia helped finance Bulgaria and Serbia, and sought to unify China once the Manchu state fell. With an indirect protectorate over Tibet and the addition of the literate and urbanized Georgian state, an unstable balance of power between the banker’s paradise and the worker’s paradise was reached. Unfortunately, Japan was a much better bet than China. Russia supported Afghanistan against England in the Anglo-Afghan war of 1879-1880, but this was not as significant as the recreation of Japan under the auspices of the Royal Navy.

Had Russia not been a party to World War I, what might the world look like as a result? A realistic scenario could look like this: The exploding Russian population would have inhabited all Siberia and parts of Central Asia. She would have taken the Balkans and Constantinople, quite possibly with Germany’s approval. This would have permitted Russia’s domination of most of the Middle East, or at least her position as chief guardian of the Orthodox Greeks and Arabs.

More speculatively, China may have been converted, and Islam would never have become the global religion it is today. England and mercantile capitalism would not have developed, and Hitler would have had no reason to leave painting. Germany would see the rationality in an alliance with Russia over Vienna. African and Asian colonies would have been liberated much earlier, and Ethiopia might have become the queen of Africa.

Russia’s new and growing oil wealth, her immense natural resources, internal market and industrial capital would have financed a protectorate over all China and quite possibly southeast Asia. Much of Central Asia, under Chinese control, would have also come under Russian protection, if not occupation. Compared to English colonialism, Russian expansion was never exploitative, but defensive.

This market, its economic growth and continued population explosion would have drawn the remaining powers of the world to Russia. She would be seen as, militarily speaking, unassailable. Moving east instead of west, she would be no threat to the European balance of power. Any alliance with Germany would stabilize Europe as strongly traditionalist, royalist and Christian. Vienna would be worse than helpless, and might begin to unravel as the Germans of the empire sought union with Germany and her Slavic population looked to Russia. An angry and expansionist Hungary would be also helpless, constantly at war with her equally enraged minorities.
The Orthodox church would find a willing ally in (royalist) German Lutheranism and the growing Old Catholic movement. Had Russia and Greece joined with this schism from the Roman church, as originally planned, the Old Catholic Church would have grown significantly. There was already quite an interest among conservative Anglicans and some Lutherans in the Orthodox tradition, and hence, large-scale conversions are not absurd dreaming.

Much of western Canada would have come under Russian control from the population of Alaska, whose constructive interaction with the native Aleutians made Russia a welcome presence, rather than an imperial one. Russian firms were already in Hawaii, and would have protected the monarchy there. The US financed the Hawaiian crown’s overthrow. Given Russia’s acceptance in much of Asia, there is no reason to believe the Hawaiian royal house (and other Pacific states) would not also see the profit in a powerful, yet distant, protector.

Russian imperialism was not profit seeking as the British empire was. It was defensive. Native populations were normally treated well, and, as the case of the Armenians and Muslims of Asia, never were forced to convert to Orthodoxy or speak Russian. Islamic subjects took their oath to the Tsar on the Koran. Poland was granted one of the most liberal constitutions in the world, and Finland, another colony of Russia, was totally independent in every respect except foreign policy. Hence, it seems certain that Russian imperial rule would not have been resented, or even have been considered “rule” in the normal sense.

Today, this seems like a fantasy barely conceivable. But for a time, prior to the mass slaughter of World War I, this was considered a viable reality in St. Petersburg and London. Goodson gives a glimpse as to why this might have been:

In 1860 The State Bank of the Russian Empire was founded with the aim of boosting trade turnovers and the strengthening of the monetary system. Up to 1894 it was an auxiliary institution under the direct control of the Ministry of Finance. In that year it was transformed into being the banker of the bankers and operated as an instrument of government’s policy. It minted and printed the nation’s coins and notes, regulated the money supply and through commercial banks provided industry and commerce with very low interest rate loans.3

The opponents of the Pax Russica were not idle. St. Petersburg, for all its problems, was one nut the banking regime could not crack. If Russia continued its colossal development, population growth and industrialization, usury would be ruined. The Russian state, more so than private capital, planned and directed investment with local funds. The French were the only substantial external presence in Russian industrialism. If this was to be replaced with Russo-German joint projects, usury would be under severe attack. From London’s point of view, something had to be done. To give the reader a hint what this was, Goodson quotes Congressman LT McFadden’s speech to the House of Representatives in 1932:

They [western banks] financed Trotsky’s mass meetings of discontent and rebellion in New York. They paid Trotsky’s passage from New York to Russia so that he might assist in the destruction of the Russian Empire. They fomented and instigated the Russian revolution and they placed a large fund of American dollars at Trotsky’s disposal in one of their branch banks in Sweden so that through him Russian homes might be thoroughly broken up and Russian children flung far and wide from their natural protectors. They have since begun the breaking up American homes and the dispersal of American children.4

McFadden was silenced. Mr. Goodson likewise. Your author lost an academic post for it. There is no issue like usury, and no power that can conceivably match that of compound interest. The left is the product of the banks, as is much of the neocon “right.” Monarchy was overthrown as a barrier to financial penetration and replaced with a global oligarchy controlling, depending on the source, upwards of 80% of global GDP. All of this exists, of course, in the name of freedom, progress and democracy.

We began this lengthy essay with the concept of usury and western banking being quite comfortable with radical left statism. We have come full circle, explaining how and why this diabolical alliance has come to pass. It remains with us today, and the opposition to it stays anemic. Yet, it is not as if there is no reaction, however vague, to the continued monopolization of wealth and labor.

Goodson does not end on a negative note. North Dakota established a state owned bank in which the revenues of the state are deposited. It provides low interest loans to farmers and small businesses. All profits revert to the state. Without the normal practices of compound interest charged against the citizen, North Dakota has not been affected by the real estate debacle of 2007. State GDP has grown by almost 100% since 1997, while personal income per capita has grown by about 140% at the same time.

While the media has been quick to argue that North Dakota’s success is exclusively due to its diminutive petroleum industry, this kind of development has certainly not occurred in Alaska, which has far more oil than North Dakota. Nigeria is drowning in oil, and yet, she remains poor. Somalia and Chad, too, sit on rivers of oil, as does Indonesia and Burma, but all of these states also remain fairly undeveloped. Apparently, oil only benefits North Dakota and the Beverly Hillbillies.

Indeed, the central strength of Goodson’s book is its consistency. It has one thesis: wherever state banks rule the financial universe of a society, that economy does very well. His analysis of 1930s Germany, Italy and early 20th century Japan all feature state controlled banks, low interest loans, state directed investment and a general loathing of libertarian free markets. They also feature triple digit growth rates, zero unemployment and low inflation. In our own day, China, Taiwan and Belarus all are in the same boat.

Belarus, as Ukraine and Russia floundered once the IMF and Harvard University helped the Mafia rig privatization deals. In Belarus, however, its popular president, Alexander Lukashenko, stopped privatization, centralized power, and nationalized finance. While Ukraine today has lost 70% of its industry and witnesses 80% of its well-educated population living below the poverty line,

Belorussian unemployment is 1% and her industry has grown by an average of 10% yearly since 2000. The two Chinas likewise: when George Soros engineered the Asian currency meltdown of 1997, the only two economies unaffected were the two that had state-controlled banks, Taiwan and China. Former powerhouses like South Korea and Japan, as well as Thailand, became official wards of the IMF as a consequence of their monetary vulnerability. Their lifetime employment policies were abolished, and living standards have fallen.

Prior to the wars that ravaged both states, Libya and Syria were also registering double digit yearly growth, popular presidents and both countries were closing in on first world status. Both countries had state controlled banks and state-directed investment. Saddam Hussein’s Iraq was doing the same until the US engineered the war with Iran and its own attack on Iran in 1990.

The Burmese state bank is under the control of the Ministry of Finance, headed by Major-General Hla Tun, a military man with a western education in finance. His deputy is Colonel Hle Swe. Clearly, the Burmese are taking no chances with foreign manipulation of their currency. Burma’s oil, rich soil, minerals, close ties with China, and its increasingly educated population are making it a target for western speculation as well as political attacks. Given that country’s ongoing and multi-front civil war, western sanctions and separatist movements, she still has managed to build 10 universities, several dozen dams, increase literacy to 80% and ensured that peasants own their own land since 1999.

Goodson’s work, of course, is not flawless. It’s errors, however, are minor. He holds that Gavrilo Princip was Jewish, and that his assassination of the Archduke Ferdinand started World War I. Princip was not Jewish, especially since he came from the backwater of western Bosnia, in the poor peasant village of Obljaj, totally rural and inaccessible. He was the child of poor peasants of Bosnian Serb stock. His mother’s maiden name was the very Orthodox Misic. Neither his father nor mother have Jewish names, and his father’s lowly job in the postal service does not scream “banking elitist.” Princip was part of the “Young Bosnia” group, loosely connected to the military society “The Black Hand,” also known as “Unification or Death.” This was a nationalist organization of military men that had no connection with the few Jews living in Serbia at the time. His extended family is Jovicevic, from Montenegro, where nary a Jew has ever tread.

The assassination of Ferdinand did not start World War I. Serbia acceded to the demands of Vienna after the assassination, and Germany too, was impressed over the Serbian desire for peace. Serbia was completely exhausted from the Balkan Wars and could not fight yet again. Furthermore, the choice of target makes little sense: Ferdinand was more or less popular among the southern Slavs, as he was seen as the most pro-Serb of the royal family. Austria, on the other hand, was itching for a causus belli ever since the Serbian rebellion against her occupation of Bosnia and artificial creation of the “state of Albania” forced Vienna’s colonial artistry on the front pages.

The circumstances of the Grand Duke’s visit were odd. Ferdinand was visiting Serbia and Bosnia on the Serbian national day, Vidovdan, when nationalist tempers were high. This was also the beginning of highly inflammatory military maneuvers in Bosnia. Ferdinand lacked the normal security detail for royals visiting hostile territory. Ferdinand’s motorcade was inexplicably rerouted by his own Austrian handlers, where Princip and some others were waiting. Yet, much to Germany’s chagrin, even before the Serbian answer to the Austrian ultimatum was received, Vienna had declared war.

These two errors are really of no significance, but they are common and understandable errors that needed to be addressed. These in no way detract from the enviable accessibility and utility of this book, which deserves wide dissemination. For what it’s worth, I endorse the work of Mr. Goodson whole-heartedly.

The post The Alchemy Of Interest, Usury And Modernity: A Review Of SM Goodson’s Inside The Reserve Bank: The Origins And Secrets Of Central Banking Exposed appeared first on Eurasia Review.

100 Insights Into The Global Economic Crisis

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“The crisis is not a problem. The crisis is just part of a process, an episode in the transformation of the Spanish economy into something capable of providing participants with rewarding work and satisfactory wages,” says IESE’s Alfredo Pastor in his book titled La hora del erizo. Economía en tiempos de crisis [literally, The Hour of the Hedgehog: Economics in Times of Crisis], published by Editorial Elba in Spain.

The professor of economics and former Secretary of State for Economic Affairs in Spain, who earned the Godó Award in Journalism in 2011, offers a rather broad perspective on the economy.

The book includes over 100 articles published between 2001 and 2014 in various media outlets in Spain — including newspapers such as La Vanguardia and El País.

Pastor’s book offers his reflections on the global economic crisis, Spain’s economic policy, the current state and the future of the eurozone, the rocky relations between Spain and Catalonia, and the role of the government in the market economy, among other issues.

Patience Is a Virtue

Articles appear in chronological order, with a blend of irony, common sense, realism and moderate optimism about the current economic situation in Europe.

“Time is precisely what we have, because this crisis is going to last a while,” says the author.

Still, Pastor rejects doomsday scenarios and vehemently defends the euro and the role of the European Union, while acknowledging the questionable economic policy promoted by eurozone politicians.

His deep knowledge of emerging markets, and particularly the Chinese economy, is evident in this book. This is thanks in part to serving as Dean of the China Europe International Business School (CEIBS) in Shanghai between 2001 and 2004.

In the book’s appendix, Pastor focuses on China’s contrasts, inequalities and challenges. He explains the cultural differences in relation to the West and calls for building bridges that go beyond mere commercial interests.

Contentious Issues

With wisdom and solid, well-documented arguments, Pastor traverses terrain that is often a minefield of controversy.

Drawing on his experience as Spain’s Secretary of State for Economic Affairs from 1993 to 1995, he calls for restraint in government spending to “sustain activity in times of depressed private demand, and therefore preventing a recession from becoming a depression.”

Pastor also advocates combining fiscal stimuli and consolidation, mixing expansionary policies and austerity measures, in order to get back on the path toward stable growth.

He gives his viewpoint on multiple issues affecting the economy — from education to the labor market, pensions, reforms, bailouts, recovery, the shared responsibility of Europe’s North and South, the role of Germany, the monetary strategy of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, industrial policy, the role of banks, corruption, the technological revolution, federalism, the controversial situation of Catalonia, and more.

Pastor addresses these issues with tangible, practical examples that paint a picture of the consequences that the economy has on society and on individuals.

According to him, the economy should not be an abstract, theoretical or distant topic and civic values must not be ignored. “Many of us lament living in a time where the depth of one’s pocket supersedes the depth of one’s spirit,” he muses in one of the articles.

The post 100 Insights Into The Global Economic Crisis appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Elizabeth Warren: ‘We Are Not Resting Until At Least 50 Senators Are (Millionaire) Women’– OpEd

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Elizabeth Warren is out selling herself and her new book, Fighting Chance, and her headline du jour is “We Are Not Resting Until at Least 50 Senators Are Women”

I’m not sure why she thinks that would solve her biggest beef, which is, in her words:

“Let’s just be real clear – the game is rigged and it’s rigged in favor of those who have money and who have power.”

If she was talking about the game she’s currently playing—the U.S. Senate—she couldn’t have spoken truer words.

In fact, 2014 marks a new record for Congress: For the first time in history, most members of Congress are millionaires, and the median net worth for all Senators increased by 10.8% over the prior year, to $2.7 million from $2.5 million.

According to a new analysis of personal financial disclosure data by the Center for Responsive Politics:

Of 534 current members of Congress, at least 268 had an average net worth of $1 million or more in 2012, according to disclosures filed last year by all members of Congress and candidates. The median net worth for the 530 current lawmakers who were in Congress as of the May filing deadline was $1,008,767 …

Breaking the numbers down further, congressional Democrats had a median net worth of $1.04 million, while congressional Republicans had a median net worth of almost exactly $1 million. In both cases, the figures are up from last year, when the numbers were $990,000 and $907,000, respectively.

Median incomes for Democratic Senators dropped a bit, due primarily to John Kerry’s leaving to become Secretary of State, removing his 2011 average net worth of $248 million from the pool, but remain in the very comfortable neighborhood of $1.7 million.

So the next time one of your “representatives” in Washington tells you she feels your pain, ask her to put her money where her mouth is.

The post Elizabeth Warren: ‘We Are Not Resting Until At Least 50 Senators Are (Millionaire) Women’ – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The Lessons Of Cliven Bundy And Donald Sterling – OpEd

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There is nothing like the musings of racist white people to garner media attention and public outrage. Unfortunately there is usually more heat than light generated in these situations and the opportunity to gain insights on the condition of black America is lost.

Such is the case with mooching rancher Cliven Bundy and racist basketball team owner Donald Sterling. Hopefully they woke black Americans from any delusion of a post-racial society and in Sterling’s case simultaneously revealed the traitors and mis-leaders in our midst.

Bundy is a Nevada rancher who like 16,000 others across the country grazes his cattle on federal property, which comprises 85% of that state’s land area. Bundy is within his rights to graze his cattle there but he is required to pay a fee for doing so. He has gotten away with paying absolutely nothing for 20 years and after losing many court cases now owes the Bureau of Land Management more than $1 million.

When the BLM finally had enough and confiscated his cattle, Bundy issued a call to arms to other terrorist minded white people. They came from all over the country, pointing guns at federal agents and creating a media firestorm. In the ironically named town of Bunkerville, Bundy held court among his fellow domestic terrorists and became the darling of Fox news and the Republican Party.

It is obvious that black people or even white people on the left would not get away with publicly brandishing fire arms, forming a de facto militia and threatening the lives of federal employees.The government backed down to prevent violence but Bundy’s fifteen minutes of fame went on a little too long for his own good. He ended what had been a galvanizing event for the right wing when he uttered his opinions about “niggers.” Some media claim he used the word “nigra” and others say “negro” but the audio is clear. Bundy expressed the opinion that black people were better off in slavery than we are today because we had work to do when we picked cotton. He rambled on against abortion and mused about why black people are in jail, but he summed up his theories by saying that freedom just didn’t help black people very much. The best part of this debacle was watching Republicans flee from the public relations disaster but the whole episode should be treated as a serious lesson.

Bundy is no outlier in any of the opinions he holds. There are millions of Americans who would take up arms to kill mostly because they would enjoy it. They might defend their actions with an appeal to patriotism or a sage brush rebellion or doomsday prepping or whatever rationale would be most convenient, but the bottom line is that they would like to get away with killing as many people as possible. That is why we have stand your ground laws and why Georgia recently passed legislation making it legal to carry guns anywhere and everywhere in that state.

Bundy is also not alone in seeing chattel slavery as being worthy of nostalgia. It is not a coincidence that gun and slavery lovers so often find common cause. The two go together and the Second Amendment is directly tied to the granting of police force status to every white person in the country in the days of slavery. Bundy’s popularity is deep and dangerous and he is no less popular now in some circles than he was before he made his remarks. Most racists know how to filter their thoughts in polite society. But Bundy is an ignorant man with no clue about niceties and said what was on his and others’ minds. It doesn’t matter that Rand Paul and Fox News back tracked from the Bundy love fest. If millions of white Americans were granted their ultimate fantasy, black people would be back in chains on the auction block.

Neither Bundy’s actions nor his politics gave him any connection to the black community but Los Angeles Clippers’ owner Donald Sterling is a rich man in a sport where a majority of players and fans are African American. The angst surrounding his racism is far more instructive and also more dispiriting too.

The public drama began with a private one. Sterling’s wife wasn’t pleased about the amount of time and money he spent on a woman known as V. Stiviano. Mrs. Sterling was so fed up that she sued Stivano for $2 million, who decided to tape conversations to protect herself. The rest is history.

It is interesting what the media chose to emphasize and to cover up in their conversation. Sterling’s rant was racist and bizarre, telling Stiviano that she could have sex with Magic Johnson but that she shouldn’t be photographed with him or bring him or any other black people to Clippers’ games. Those words were the main focus of media attention.

Sterling, whose real name is Tokowitz, defended himself by pointing out how badly black people are treated in Israel. This exchange with Stiviano was ignored by many news organizations.

“It’s the world! You go to Israel, the blacks are just treated like dogs [emphasis mine].”
“So do you have to treat them like that, too?”

“The white Jews, there’s white Jews and black Jews. Do you understand?”

“And are the black Jews less than the white Jews?”

“A hundred percent, fifty, a hundred percent.”

Sterling’s racism was well known in Los Angeles prior to the taped conversations being revealed but obedience to a rich man protected him from full exposure. In 2008 he was sued by former NBA star and Clippers general manager Elgin Baylor, who claimed a “plantation mentality” permeated the work environment in that organization. Also in 2009 the Sterlings were forced to pay $2.7 million due to discriminatory housing practices against black and Latino tenants in apartment buildings they owned in Los Angeles. It was the largest such judgment paid in a housing case at that time. None of this mattered to the Los Angeles branch of the NAACP, which honored Sterling with a humanitarian of the year award in 2009 and was prepared to give him a lifetime achievement award before the scandal was revealed.

Not only was Sterling to be honored, but also executives from Walmart and Fedex. Walmart is known for its low wages, union busting, discriminatory hiring and promotion policies, theft of public services and push to privatize education. Fedex is also a well known union breaking corporation. The branch had to be dragged kicking and screaming to cancel the honor for Sterling and also to return funds he had donated over the years. The organization also declined to reveal the amount of those donations but they are estimated to be in the range of $45,000. (*link 45k) The NAACP sold itself cheaply.

It isn’t enough to say that the Los Angeles NAACP represents the worst of the black mis-leadership class. Apparently its sole mission is to raise money because it clearly has no integrity and does nothing to help anyone outside of its own shallow circle. It does no good to anyone who is in need and if it were disbanded it wouldn’t be missed.

The mis-leaders are not the only bad guys in this tale. Former NBA star and current team owner Michael Jordan had nothing to say about Sterling for a full two days after the story broke. He finally announced that he was “disgusted” and “outraged” but apparently only after his handlers gave him permission to speak up.

Both Bundy and Sterling must be given a strange sort of credit because they exposed the degree of confusion that permeates this country. While Bundy said that black people were better off as slaves he also praised Asians and Latinos as being hard workers. He suddenly became not so racist in the eyes of many people, who began to downplay the awfulness of his sentiments in the model minority game. Sterling’s friend Stiviano was initially the object of derision, the “gold digger” whose motives were suspect.

The only question about racism is how well people cover it up. There is an endless supply, and wishful thinking makes it tempting to forget until the next clueless person raises his or her head. In the meantime remember that criticism of Israel shouldn’t be swept under the rug and that some respected individuals and organizations should not be respected at all. There are many villains to go around in this story, and Bundy and Sterling are just two out of many.

The post The Lessons Of Cliven Bundy And Donald Sterling – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Why It Won’t Be A Walk In The Clouds For BJP, Modi – OpEd

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By Rajeev Sharma

Narendra Modi says he has been chosen to undertake the “difficult tasks” for the country.

Manmohan Singh says that the so-called “Modi wave” is a mere media creation.

Claims, counter-claims and polemics apart, the Indian electoral scene, with just two more voting phases left, seems poised for a photo finish. There is a strong possibility of no political party or pre-poll coalition reaching the magic number of 272, the number of seats required in the 543-member Lok Sabha for a simple majority. The likely fractured mandate would inevitably make the post-poll scenario most crucial.

It is not going to be a walk in the clouds for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi.
We will know on May 16 the results of India’s most closely fought general elections ever and which political party forms the next government. No one can say with certainty at this juncture as to who will be India’s next prime minister.

What one can say with certainty is that the BJP will emerge as the single largest party. One can also safely predict that the Congress will be the next biggest party.

The million-dollar question, which won’t be answered till May 16 is: How much will be the gap between the BJP and the Congress in terms of number of seats in the Lok Sabha?

Some elections surveys have given the BJP anywhere between 220 and 240 seats on its own and the Congress merely 80, much lower than the grand old party’s lowest-ever tally of 114 seats in the 1999 election. Pollsters and election surveys may well be far off the mark, as they usually are. The claims of the BJP and Modi that the BJP will get more than 300 seats on its own may well prove to be a mirage.
For that to happen a Modi wave or a Modi tsunami will not be enough and the party will require magic for registering such a landslide win. The reason is that the BJP has fielded just 385 candidates and to win more than 300 out of these requires superhuman efforts or supernatural powers.

Consider the figures of the last general elections in 2009. The BJP had contested 433 seats but managed to win only 116. The Congress, on the other hand, contested 440 seats and won 206.
But this time the Congress is down in the dumps; not because of the Modi charisma but because of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government’s own failures, fueled by corruption and decision paralysis.

There are three major stumbling blocks for Modi to become Indian prime minister: (i) Modi’s divisive personality and the Muslim factor; (ii) the Congress party’s late resurgence and a gritty fight-back despite heavy odds; and (iii) no sign of major regional parties getting blown off by the so-called Modi tsunami.

The first one has been a factor even before a single vote was polled. Modi is seen as an authoritarian figure who has ruled the western Indian state of Gujarat with an iron hand and will likely do so even at the Center should he become the prime minister. In a way, India needs precisely this kind of ruler for immediate economic, political and diplomatic dividend.

But the question is this. With his polarizing personality, he will expectedly draw anti-BJP votes from a majority of India’s 176 million Muslims who account for 14 percent of India’s population, but will he be able to polarize all the Hindu voters in his favor? The answer is a big ‘no’. Ominously for the BJP, the percentage of Muslims is sizeable in Assam (30.9 percent), West Bengal (25.2 percent), Kerala (24.7 percent), Uttar Pradesh (18.5 percent) and Bihar (16.5 percent).

On the second point, the Congress party has shown a remarkable resilience and picked up steam at the most crucial time. The party’s most recent internal assessment says that the Congress will get at least 140 seats.

If that were to happen, it would be bad news for Modi and the BJP. In that scenario, the chances of formation of a BJP-led government with its 28 allies (mainly comprising of fringe players) would become remote. Ironically, the Congress would be in the driver’s seat in such a scenario and may lend outside support to non-BJP, non-Congress Third Front or conversely form a Congress-led coalition government with inside or outside support of Third Front.

Important leaders like Prakash Karat, chief of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), and Prithviraj Chavan, chief minister of Maharashtra and a senior Congress leader have already issued pregnant statements supporting a non-BJP coalition government.
On the third point, regional satraps like Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati (Uttar Pradesh), Mamata Banerjee (West Bengal), J. Jayalalithaa and M. Karunanidhi (Tamil Nadu) continue to hold sway in their respective states. This makes a Modi wave all the more difficult to happen.

No single political party has been able to win a simple majority in the Lok Sabha on its own since 1989. Regional parties have dominated the Indian political space for past quarter century and there is nothing to believe that this will change in this election.

The BJP’s best-ever tally was 182 seats in the 1999 election, which it got under the leadership of the party’s most charismatic leader and former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. It is to be seen whether Modi has become a taller leader than even Vajpayee or whether he is just a gasbag.

- The writer is a New Delhi-based independent journalist and a political commentator who tweets @Kishkindha.

The post Why It Won’t Be A Walk In The Clouds For BJP, Modi – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Syria: Car Bombs, Mortars Hit Residential Areas

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On April 29, 2014, car bombs in government-held territory in Homs appeared to target civilians and killed dozens of people while mortar attacks in Damascus indiscriminately struck civilian objects killing civilians. Human Rights Watch interviewed people in Homs and Damascus who had information about the car bombings and mortar attacks. In a statement released on April 29, Jabhat al-Nusra, an extremist Islamist group opposed to the Syrian government, claimed responsibility for the twin car bombings in Homs. The perpetrators of the mortar attack are not known but a witness told Human Rights Watch that the mortars came from the direction of territory held by non-state armed groups.

These attacks took place two months after the United Nations Security Council unanimously passed resolution 2139, demanding that all parties in Syria cease the indiscriminate use of weapons in populated areas. Human Rights Watch has also documented the government’s repeated failure to comply with the resolution including the government’s continued indiscriminate air strikes on Aleppo with barrel bombs.

“The UN Security Council orders all sides in Syria to stop attacking civilians and the attacks just keep on coming,” said Joe Stork, deputy Middle East and North Africa director. “The Security Council needs to make clear it means business by imposing sanctions and referring the Syrian situation to the International Criminal Court.”

On April 29, two car bombs detonated in Homs in al-Zahra, a predominately Alawite neighborhood. A video published by al-Akhabriya, a pro-government news agency, shows some of the resulting destruction. A neighborhood resident told Human Rights Watch by phone that he heard the first car bomb go off at 1:15 p.m., and the second bomb minutes later. He said the cars were parked near Abbassiyya Square, a popular commercial area. He estimated that the nearest military object, an army checkpoint, was 1.5 kilometers away.

After the bombing, he visited two hospitals in Homs where first responders were sending the wounded and bodies of the dead. Based on information he received from hospital staff, he said, he estimated that the attacks killed 45 people and wounded 120. A hospital administrator told Human Rights Watch on April 30 that based on information gathered from the same two hospitals, the death toll had risen to 55 and 130 people had been wounded. Children were among the dead, according to the resident, media reports, and videotaped statements.

A second resident, who was on the scene rescuing the wounded and was injured in the second blast, told Human Rights Watch that the blasts were about 10 minutes apart. He described how he was injured and what he witnessed when the bombs went off at approximately 1:10 pm and after:

I was about 6-7 meters from the second explosion. All I could see was smoke and fire. My brother was with me and we tried to pull each other out. I don’t know who took me to the hospital. Two guys ran away from me from fear of all the blood on me. I have shrapnel injuries all over my body. Some are serious … I saw limbs from other victims … some people even 70 meters away were injured. Some people that were watching on their balconies, children, were killed…. The explosions took place at a time when children were leaving school and university students were walking around. There is also a famous market in the area and there were shoppers.

The resident told Human Rights Watch that he believed the death toll had risen to 120. His estimate was based on information he received at three hospitals and different clinics where he spoke to staff that described the death toll.

He also said there were no military objects in the area, with the closest checkpoint being kilometers away.

A mediator involved in negotiations between the government and armed groups based in the Old City of Homs told Human Rights Watch that certain armed groups there have openly threatened to target pro-government or Alawite areas in Homs to pressure the government to allow food into the Old City, which remains under siege. The negotiator said that in one exchange earlier in April, the fighters sought to negotiate safe passage of food into the Old City in exchange for information about where they had placed a car bomb in an Alawite area.

Human Rights Watch has repeatedly condemned the government’s siege tactics, including in the Old City of Homs. But under no circumstances do such tactics excuse or allow the deliberate targeting of civilians or civilian objects.

Jabhat al-Nusra has claimed responsibility for numerouslethal car bombings in areas without military objects in Syria that, taken together, amount to an ongoing and systematic policy of targeting civilians and may amount to crimes against humanity.

Other armed groups have also carried out car bomb attacks in populated areas, including in Homs.

Five other car bombings were reported in Homs in March and April 2014 alone. On April 14, SANA reported and videos corroborated a car bombing in Akrama, a predominately Alawite Homs neighborhood, killing four people and injuring 30.

SANA also reported that on April 9 two car bombs in Karm al-Louz, a mostly Alawite Homs neighborhood,had killed 25 civilians and wounded more than 100. Videos also show damage from the explosion. On April 10, appearing to associate themselves with the Karm al-Louz bombings, Jabhat al-Nusra announced the attack.

On March 17, SANA, al-Akhabriya, and SAMA TV reported that a car bomb had exploded in al-Zahra, killing and injuring civilians. Videos posted on YouTube show the destruction. Jabhat al-Nusra also announced the March 17 strikes, estimating that tens of people were killed and injured.

On March 27, SANA reported that a car bomb had exploded in the al-Arman neighborhood, a mixed Alawite and Armenian Christian neighborhood near Akrama, killing one person and injuring 11. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights also referenced the reports by state media. In al-Arman, the Arman neighborhood Facebook group also reported that on March 6 a car bomb exploded killing 13 individuals, including children, and wounding 30 others.

On April 29, two mortar shells also struck the Badr el-Din Hussaini educational complex in the al-Shaghour neighborhood of Damascus, a pro-government area, according to a resident from the area who spoke to Human Rights Watch and media reports. The resident, who was involved in the rescue efforts after the strike, told Human Rights Watch that 17 children, approximately 13 years old, were killed in the first mortar attack on the school’s courtyard at approximately 9:30 am. The children were in the courtyard during recess when the mortar hit the school, he said. He said the second mortar, which fell 30 to 45 minutes after the first, killed an additional two to three parents who came to pick up their kids from the school. He estimated that 50 people were injured in the attack based on what he saw on the scene and later in a hospital where the wounded were taken.

The resident, who was near to the site when the first mortar struck and at the school when the second hit, told Human Rights Watch that he believed the mortars came from an area under the control of armed groups in the Yarmouk camp to the south of al-Shaghour.

A video posted by al-Akhabriya shows some of the damage caused by the mortar attacks and some of the injured, including children. The pro-government al-Nazha and Akrama Homs News Network published on its Facebook page the names of 14 people it said had been killed in the strike, and said one additional person whose identity was not known had also been killed. The Facebook page Diary of a Mortar Shell identified 13 of the same people as having been killed and published their names alongside photographs of 13 children, which it said were of the victims.

SANA reported that a separate mortar attack on April 29 in Adra al-Balad in the Damascus countryside killed four civilians, including three children, and wounded 19 when a school being used as a shelter for internally displaced people was hit. Human Rights Watch was not able to independently verify the attack.

Since the fall of 2013 Human Rights Watch has collected evidence of many other mortar strikes that killed civilians in Damascus and Homs neighborhoods under government control. Based on witness statements and investigations of damage sites, Human Rights Watch concluded that these attacks originated in territory held by armed groups. The repeated attacks against known civilian objectives, including schools, mosques, and markets, strongly suggests that these strikes are either indiscriminate or are targeting civilians and civilian objects.

The deliberate targeting of civilians is a war crime, and if carried out in a widespread or systematic way amounts to crimes against humanity. These are crimes of universal jurisdiction, meaning that those responsible, including those complicit in such crimes, can be prosecuted anywhere in the world. As a matter of customary international law, the term “crimes against humanity” includes a range of serious human rights abuses, including murder when committed as part of a widespread or systematic attack by a government or organized armed group against a civilian population.

Those who commit, order, or are otherwise complicit in crimes against humanity should be held individually criminally responsible for their actions. Military and civilian commanders whose subordinates commit war crimes and crimes against humanity are criminally liable if they knew or should have known about the crime and fail to take all reasonable measures to prevent it or submit the matter for criminal investigation.

Military commanders should not, as a matter of policy, order the use of explosive weapons with wide-area effects in populated areas due to the foreseeable harm to civilians, Human Rights Watch said. Military commanders should also never order strikes on protected civilian objects, including schools still in use for education.

In its February 22, 2014 resolution demanding that fighting parties cease using indiscriminate weapons in populated areas, the UN Security Council explicitly expressed “its intent to take further steps in the case of non-compliance with this resolution.”

Given the failure of parties on all sides of the conflict to adhere to the demands of the resolution, the Security Council should impose an arms embargo on any groups implicated in widespread or systematic human rights abuses, including the Syrian government. The Security Council should also impose a travel ban and an asset freeze on anyone credibly implicated in grave abuses, and refer the situation to the International Criminal Court.

The post Syria: Car Bombs, Mortars Hit Residential Areas appeared first on Eurasia Review.

New Fears Over Afghan Election Run-Off – Analysis

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By Hafiz Gardesh and Mina Habib

Afghan analysts warn that the second round of voting to decide the presidential contest is likely to face a fresh series of challenges.

In preliminary results announced on April 26 by Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission (IEC), former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah came first with 44.9 per cent of the vote, and ex-World Bank economist Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai was in second place with 31.5 per cent.

The nearest other candidate, Zalmai Rasul – another former foreign minister – finished a distant third with 11.5 per cent.

Final results will be announced on May 14 after suspect votes are investigated, but no candidate is predicted to be able to secure more than 50 per cent of the vote.

According to Afghan law, a run-off must be held within two weeks of the final results being announced. The IEC has already begun preparing for this second round, with a tentative date of May 28.

The April 5 polls were hailed as an historic success, with nearly seven million of the country’s 12 million eligible voters turning out on election day. Numbers were so high that polling stations in some areas ran out of ballot papers.

There were relatively few incidents of violence around the country, and the Afghan security forces were praised for their efforts to ensure calm as the country went to the polls. (See Euphoria at Afghan Poll Security Success.)

However, experts fear that the tight security and high turnout might not be replicated in the second round. They also note a clear ethnic dimension to the run-off, with Abdullah perceived as Tajik and Ashraf Ghani a Pashtun.

The last presidential election in 2009 were marred by fraud claims. They ended in a run-off in which the incumbent Hamed Karzai was pitted against Abdullah, who withdrew before the vote was held saying he did not trust the validity of the process.

Fazel Rahman Oria, a member of Abdullah’s team, told IWPR that once again, there were concerns about the transparency of the vote and the actions of both the IEC and the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC).

“We do not agree with the announcement of these [preliminary] results,” he said. “Abdullah was the winner in the first round. We have filed our complaints and the ECC should respond to us and to the public.”

Oria added that if the campaign team’s objections were upheld, Abdullah would emerge with an outright majority.

“A number of domestic and foreign mafia circles are trying to take the elections to a second round by violating the country’s laws, particularly electoral law,” he claimed, adding that Abdullah was certain to win a second round if it went ahead.

“Those who trample on the law, eliminate transparency from the elections, or make efforts to favour a specific candidate will have to take responsibility for their actions before the people in future,” Oria concluded.

Ashraf Ghani dismissed these claims at a press conference on April 27, adding that he was not interested in negotiating a deal and would fight a second round.

“Insisting that there is a victor in the first round amounts to trampling on the law, because it is obvious that the first round had no winner,” he told reporters, while reserving a measure of criticism for the IEC.

“The commission should explain the shortage of ballot papers at some polling stations, as well as the [preliminary results] announcement that did not differentiate between clean and unclean votes,” he said.

To avoid further allegations of corruption, Ghani called on the IEC to ensure that ballot papers were distributed to all polling stations, and suggested photographing each voter.

“The government and the commission should dismiss those who were involved in fraud as soon as possible, otherwise the second round will again fall victim to fraud and violations,” he concluded.

Despite the success of the first round of voting, political analyst Abdul Ghafur Lewal warned that a run-off “comes with many problems”.

Lewal said that the Tajik-Pashtun divide in the run-off risked damaging hard-won Afghan national unity and fuelling ethnic divisions.

“If the winner in the second round, who will become the future president, does not appoint specialists and experts in equal measure from the losing team’s ethnic group to ensure national participation, the gulf between the people and the government will widen more than it did during the 13-year term of Hamed Karzai, and this will cause many social problems,” he continued.

Lewal also highlighted the security challenges of this new round of voting, arguing that having failed to massively disrupt the April 5 vote, the Taleban would now renew their efforts.

“Since the weather is getting milder and the government’s armed opponents are more active in warmer areas, it is going to be dangerous for those who participate,” he said.

An additional factor, he argued, was interference by foreign intelligence agencies, each of which had its favoured candidate. Their influence had been less noticeable in the first round, in which eight candidates competed, but the narrower field now made the stakes higher.

“I am confident that regional countries – Pakistan, Iran, Russia and India – supported specific candidates in the first round, and they will do the same in the second,” he said.

The April 5 elections were for both presidential and provincial council candidates, and this time, the turnout might be lower and the opportunities for fraud greater, Lewal said.

“The number of observers will be fewer in this round, because the provincial council observers won’t be there. Government officials, including provincial governors, police chiefs and the like will use nationalist sentiment to interfere in the electoral process,” he said.

Others accuse Karzai of engineering a second round in an attempt to guarantee continuing influence over Afghan politics for himself. The Afghan constitution bars him from seeking a third term.

Political analyst Wahid Mozhda said the wide field of candidates in the first round was due to a Karzai strategy to divide the vote and ensure a run-off.

“Karzai’s goal behind setting up sham contenders was so that none of the candidates would win. He wants a coalition government to be created so that there will be a safe place for him and his brothers as part of it, and so that they will somehow have a part in the future government,” he said.

Mozhda added that the Americans also saw Karzai as a valuable asset due to his experience over the last 13 years.

“As far as I know, efforts are being made behind the scene to create a coalition government,” he added.

Karzai’s office has repeatedly denied accusations of interference, insisting that the president wants a transparent process and has no preferred candidate.

Ordinary people seemed unenthusiastic at the prospect of going to the polls again.

University student Sayed Mansur claimed that interference by Iran and Pakistan had been clear in the electoral process.

“I thought our people had reached a level of political maturity, but the votes that went to warlords changed my mind,” he said. “People still aren’t thinking of the national interest…The election was a laboratory experience for Western countries, too. They will develop their future plans for the country after assessing the Afghan people’s political understanding and demands.”

Kabul resident Shamsuddin, 40, said he now regretted voting in the first round.

“I voted enthusiastically, hoping that power would be transferred from the corrupt Karzai to a good person, but we saw there was a lot of fraud. I am very disappointed. I will not go to the ballot box again. The issue is now ethnic. No one cares about the country or the people,” he said. “Afghans still haven’t learned – they don’t know who their friend is and who their enemy is. The same warlords will come to power again, and they will have a right to do whatever they want to do to the people, because the people have supported them themselves.”

Hafizullah Gardesh is IWPR’s Afghanistan editor. Mina Habib is an IWPR-trained journalist in Kabul. This article was published at IWPR’s ARR Issue 485.

The post New Fears Over Afghan Election Run-Off – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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