(CORDIS) — We have reached planetary boundaries – human pressures on finite, earth systems are at a tipping point. However, the technology to address this near catastrophe is now within our reach, according to expert in sustainable development, Jeffrey Sachs, who opened the 2014 edition of Green Week in Brussels last Tuesday.

The situation is grave – in April, CO2 concentrations reached 400 parts per million for the first time in 3 million years. Emissions are heading to a 4-6.1 degree Celsius ‘likely’ increase in temperature, when most experts agree that we must stay below a two degree increase in order to avoid irreversible disruption.

Sachs, a renowned economist and senior advisor to the UN, noted, ‘We are trespassing on fundamental planetary boundaries, the most dramatic of which is the rise of the greenhouse gas concentrations …The path we need to be on takes the two degrees limit seriously and understands the carbon budget that goes along with it.’

Sachs underlined the importance of political agreements in achieving this, in particular the outcome of UN climate change negotiations in Paris and the establishment of internationally agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) next year. However, these must go hand in hand with an intense focus on technology.

‘The good news is we are sitting on a complete revolution of technology that allows us to move in a sustainable direction. That’s a matter of choice though. Markets alone won’t take us there. We have to decide on planetary scale, we’re going for a sustainable, green, inclusive economy.’

Sachs pointed to Kondratieff’s graph of the five economic waves experienced since the beginning of the industrial revolution. He called for a sixth wave based on intelligent technologies to lead us towards 2050. ‘We need a sixth wave of sustainable and green technologies …so that we can provide to all the people of the planet in a way that is environmentally sustainable.’

According to Sachs, the key players on climate change – the US, EU, China, India, Russia, Australia, Canada and the Gulf countries – are the economic units who can change the course and adopt the sixth wave of economic growth.

Some argue that the technology is not yet well developed enough to meet the huge challenges posed by climate change. Sachs pointed to our tremendous capacity in recent years to quickly improve technology and reduce costs. ‘Since 1980, we have an increase in the number of mobile subscribers from 20 000 to 7 billion today… The cost of sequencing a human genome has decreased from $100 million in 2001 to about $1 000 today – a halving of the cost roughly every nine months …And, there has been a dramatic decline by 100 fold in the cost of photovoltaic cells since 1977′.

We do, however, have development cycles to go with some technologies, according to Sachs. ‘We need to turn fleets of cars into zero or low carbon and the scale management and commercialisation still has technological cycles to go … Regarding wind and solar, there is a challenge in storage and management of the grid … Many people believe that carbon capture and storage is a potential technology but it is unproven – it is done on small scale but scale is pertinent.’

The key, according to Sachs, is to create practical, manageable pathways for deep decarbonisation based on a technological revolution. National deep decarbonisation pathways should be based on technical and structural improvement for energy efficiency; the decarbonisation of the power sector enabled by smart grids; the electrification of final energy demand; the reduction of process emissions from industries (e.g. cement, steel) and the reduction of emissions from land use, land use change, and forestry.

‘Every country should make a road map with a commitment to technology diffusion programmes of key solutions. The world needs to invest in technologies on a large scale. If we invest tens of billions, the return could be trillions.’

Some climate change experts insist that it is too late to turn things around but Sachs was adamant as he closed his address in the Green Week auditorium, ‘We have the know-how, technology and the urgent need to do it so let’s do it.’

The post Jeffrey Sachs: We Need A Sixth Wave Of Sustainable And Green Technologies appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Italy opened the scoring with a Claudio Marchisio goal in the 35th minute, only for England to strike back when Daniel Sturridge scored from a Wayne Rooney cross.

The winning goal came for Italy in the 51st minute when Mario Balotelli scored with a header shortly after the half-time break.

Roy Hodgson’s side had several unsuccessful attacking efforts as they tried to get back into the game, but Italy’s Salvatore Sirigu put in a strong performance in goal.

There was an unusual injury for the England squad when the team’s physio, Gary Lewin, dislocated his ankle while celebrating Sturridge’s goal.

Lewin was carried off the sidelines after suffering the injury in the 37th minute.

The win sees Italy join Costa Rica on three points at the top of Group D.

A disappointed Stephen Gerrard said after the match: “Italy are a good team and we knew how they were going to play it.

“It’s disappointing because we put so much into it.”

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The detained US soldier convicted of leaking a trove of secret documents to WikiLeaks made a rare foray into public life Saturday to warn Americans they were being lied to about Iraq once more.

Chelsea Manning is serving a 35-year prison sentence on espionage charges and other offenses for passing along 700,000 secret documents, including diplomatic cables and military intelligence files, to anti-secrecy website WikiLeaks in the largest-scale leak in US history.

“I understand that my actions violated the law. However, the concerns that motivated me have not been resolved,” the soldier formerly known as Bradley Manning wrote in a New York Times editorial.

“As Iraq erupts in civil war and America again contemplates intervention, that unfinished business should give new urgency to the question of how the United States military controlled the media coverage of its long involvement there and in Afghanistan.”

President Barack Obama said this week he was “looking at all the options” to halt the offensive that has brought militants within 50 miles (80 kilometers) of Baghdad’s city limits, but ruled out any return of US combat troops.

Obama has been under mounting fire from Republican critics over the swift collapse of Iraq’s security forces, which Washington spent billions of dollars training and equipping before pulling out its own troops in 2011.

While the US military was upbeat in its public outlook on the 2010 Iraqi parliamentary elections, suggesting it had helped bring stability and democracy to the country, “those of us stationed there were acutaly aware of a more complicated reality,” Manning wrote.

“Military and diplomatic reports coming across my desk detailed a brutal crackdown against political dissidents by the Iraqi Ministry of Interior and federal police, on behalf of Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki. Detainees were often tortured, or even killed.”

Manning, a former US Army intelligence analyst, said he was “shocked by our military’s complicity in the corruption of that election. Yet these deeply troubling details flew under the American media’s radar.”

Criticizing the military’s practice of embedding journalists, Manning charged that “the current limits on press freedom and excessive government secrecy make it impossible for Americans to grasp fully what is happening in the wars we finance.”

Manning is serving out the prison sentence at Fort Leavenworth in Kansas and had requested a name change after court-martial proceedings revealed the soldier’s emotional turmoil over sexual identity, reports AFP.

A US Army general denied clemency to Manning in April, upholding the 35-year sentence.

The post Manning: ‘US Public Lied To About Iraq From The Start’ appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Casey Kasem, the U.S. radio personality with the distinctive voice who counted down the top pop music hits on his popular weekly show and also provided the voice of hippie sleuth Shaggy on the “Scooby Doo” cartoons, died on Sunday. He was 82.

“Early this Father’s Day morning, our dad Casey Kasem passed away surrounded by family and friends,” his daughter, Kerri Kasem, said in a statement posted online. “Even though we know he is in a better place and no longer suffering, we are heartbroken.”

In recent years, Kasem was trapped in a feud between his three adult children and his second wife, former actress Jean Kasem.

In 2013, his children filed a legal petition to gain control of his health care, alleging that Casey Kasem was suffering from advanced Parkinson’s disease and that his wife was isolating him from friends and family members.

He also suffered from Lewy Body Disease, a form of dementia.

Last week Casey Kasem, who had developed a severe bedsore while in Washington, was placed in “comfort-oriented care” in a Washington state hospital.

He was receiving pain medication, but not food or water, after Los Angeles Superior Court Judge Daniel Murphy determined that feeding him would have been detrimental to his health, Reuters reported.

It was a sad, startling end for a man whose voice had entertained and informed music lovers worldwide.

Born in Detroit

Kemal Amin Kasem was born in 1932 in Detroit, the son of Lebanese immigrants.

He was active in speaking out for greater understanding of Arab-Americans – both on political issues involving the Mideast and on arts and media issues.

Casey Kasem began his broadcasting career in the radio club at Detroit’s Northwestern High School and was soon a disc jockey on WJBK radio in Detroit, initially calling himself Kemal Kasem.

In a 1997 visit with high school students in Dearborn, Michigan, home to a large Arab-American community, he was asked why he changed his name to Casey.

“It didn’t sound like a deejay; it wasn’t hip. So we decided I’d be `Casey at the Mike’ – and I have been since,” Kasem said.

Kasem became perhaps best-known for his “American Top 40,” which began on July 4, 1970, in Los Angeles. The No. 1 song on his list then was “Mama Told Me Not to Come,” by Three Dog Night.

He stepped down from “American Top 40” in 2004 and retired altogether in 2009.

On his syndicated show, Kasem counted down the 40 most popular songs of the week in order, finishing with the No. 1 song. Before each song, Kasem told an upbeat anecdote about the singer’s road to success and read letters from listeners.

At its peak, Kasem’s show was heard on more than 1,000 stations, including Armed Forces Radio, in about 50 countries.

“I accentuate the positive and eliminate the negative. That is the timeless thing,” Kasem told The New York Times in 1990.

“Long-distance dedications”

While many DJs entertained listeners with stunts and “morning zoo” snarkiness, Kasem would read “long-distance dedications” of songs sent in by readers and introduce countdown records with sympathetic background anecdotes about the singers.

The show continued in varying forms – and for varying syndicators – until his retirement in 2009. In his signoff, he would tell viewers: “And don’t forget: keep your feet on the ground and keep reaching for the stars.”

Kasem’s legacy reached well beyond music. His voice was heard in TV cartoons such as “Scooby-Doo” (he was Shaggy) and in numerous commercials.

“They are going to be playing Shaggy and Scooby-Doo for eons and eons,” Kasem told The New York Times in 2004.

“And they’re going to forget Casey Kasem – unless they happen to step on his star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame. I’ll be one of those guys people say `Who’s that?’ about. And someone else will say, `He’s just some guy who used to be on the radio.’“

The post Casey Kasem, ‘American Top 40′ Host, Dies At Age 82 appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Ultra-conservative clerics are condemning soccer as a Jewish and Christian tool to undermine Islamic culture as millions of Muslims across the globe tune in to watch the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.

The condemnations revive a long-standing debate among conservatives as well as militants about the rectitude of the world’s most popular sport. They constitute one side of a divide among jihadis and Salafis, arch conservatives who seek to emulate to the degree possible 7th century Muslim life at the time of the Prophet Mohammed and his immediate successors.

On the other side of the divide are some of the world’s most prominent jihadist and militant Islamist leaders, including the late Osama Bin Laden, Hamas’ Gaza leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah chief sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, who are avid soccer fans. They recognize the sport’s bonding and recruitment qualities. The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the jihadist group making advances in Iraq, earlier this year used soccer as a recruitment tool.

In the latest salvo in the debate, Saudi Sheikh Abdel Rahman Al-Barrak warned in a fatwa, a religious opinion, that soccer “played according to (accepted international rules) has caused Muslims to adopt some of the customs of the enemies of Islam, who are (preoccupied with) games and frivolity.”

Sheikh Al-Barrak is believed be close to the kingdom’s rulers despite having been praised by Mr. Bin Laden in 1994 for opposing then Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdelaziz bin Baz’s endorsement of peace with Israel.

The cleric issued his fatwa in response to a query by a reader of his website on how the faithful should view fans who admire foreign players.

He cautioned that soccer was responsible for multiple “abominable and corrupt acts,” including befriending and admiring infidels, fandom which sparks hostility between supporters of different teams, cursing, profiteering and insulting others when one’s team wins.

“In light of all this, liking and glorifying soccer is tantamount to engaging in a public abomination and encouraging it. It distracts sectors of society – men and women, young and old – from important matters, both religious and non-religious, and busies them with trivial matters that do not benefit the nation but only lead to a waste of energy and time. This means that it is forbidden to praise or glorify infidel players,” Sheikh Al-Barrak ruled.

The cleric had earlier described soccer as “the mother of all crimes” because it was a waste of money and sparked “unwarranted displays of joy.”

His views echo opinions of other militant clerics such as Sheikh Suleiman Al-Alwan, a Saudi cleric nicknamed Al Qaeda’s mufti who is serving a 15-year prison sentence for endorsing suicide attacks.

“Soccer is a Masonic game meant to distance Muslims from their religion and faith, and most of those who follow (soccer matches) are loyal to the infidels… A man who watches a game, God forbid, is watching deviant criminals and sinful infidels, even if they are Muslims,” Sheikh Al-Alwan argued in a fatwa two years ago. Moreover he warned that refereeing posed a serious problem because it implemented man-made rules rather than God’s law.

While Sheikh Al-Alwan sees the game as a Masonic plot, Sheikh Al-Barrak and others, including Kuwaiti Sheikh Abdel Muhsin Al-Mutairi, argue that the beautiful game is a Jewish conspiracy aimed at distracting Muslims from their faith. Sheikh Al-Barrak last year condemned Muslim governments for investing in soccer and wanting to host mega events like the World Cup, a swipe at both his own government and Qatar, the host of the 2022 tournament.

Sheikh Al-Mutairi warned late last year that the Jews had been “successful in preoccupying the Muslim youth… with the most inane matters” in accordance with The Protocols of the Elders of Zion, a 19th century anti-Semitic plot detailing an alleged Jewish plot to control the world.

He quoted the tract as saying: ‘In order to keep the masses in the dark, oblivious to what is being planned for them, we will exert efforts to distract their attention, by creating means of entertainment and diversion, amusing games, and all kinds of sports, as well as things that feed one’s desires. Then, we will make the newspapers promote artistic and sports competitions.’

Sheikh Al-Alwan charged that “the Jews, the Christians, and their hypocritical, mercenary lackeys have invested great efforts in cutting the nation off from its glorious history. They want Muslim youths to fumble about in the darkness of Western culture, which is promoted by the sinful media.”

Jihadist and Salafi proponents of soccer recognize that soccer brings recruits into the fold, encourages camaraderie and reinforces militancy among those who have already joined.

ISIS, the jihadist militants in Iraq in Syria, published a video earlier this year suggesting that an apparent Portuguese fighter in Syria was a former French international who had played for British premier league club Arsenal.

The video exploited the physical likeness of a masked jihadist fighter believed to be Celso Rodrigues Da Costa, to that of French international Lassana Diarra. Voice analysis suggested however that the man in the video brandishing an AK-47 weapon was Mr. Da Costa, a Portuguese national who had lived in East London and may have attended youth coaching sessions at Arsenal. Mr. Diarra played for Arsenal before moving to Lokomotiv Moscow.

A caption under the video posted on FiSyria.com, a website associated with ISIS, read; “A former soccer player – Arsenal of London – who left everything for jihad.” Another caption said: “He… played for Arsenal in London and left soccer, money and the European way of life to follow the path of Allah.”

Last October, Burak Karan, an up and coming German-Turkish soccer star, was killed during a Syrian military raid on anti-Bashar al Assad rebels near the Turkish border. Messrs. Karan and Da Costa were the latest examples of soccer players-turned-militants.

Palestinian suicide bombers in Israel traced their roots a decade ago to a West Bank soccer team. The 2004 Madrid train bombers played the beautiful game together and several Saudi players joined the anti-American jihad in Iraq following a fatwa or religious ruling by conservative Muslim preachers denouncing football as a game of the infidels.

In Russia, authorities three years ago arrested three men on charges of wanting to blow up the high speed Sapsan railway linking Moscow and St Petersburg. The three were childhood friends who traced their roots to the northern Caucasus, a hotbed of Islamist militancy, where they played soccer together.

Messrs. Karan and Da Costa fall into a category of players who were either born in or migrated to Europe that also includes Yann Nsaku and Nizar ben Abdelaziz Trabelsi, people who radicalized individually unlike the Hamas or Madrid bombers or the Saudi players who turned militant as part of a group.

Mr. Nsaku, a Congolese born convert to Islam and former Portsmouth FC youth centre back, was one of 11 converts arrested in France a year ago on suspicion of being violent jihadists and for “suspected Islamic terrorist plotting of anti-Semitic attacks,” according to French police. Police said the group aimed to spark a “war across France” with the intention of imposi ng Islamic law.

A 19-year old, 6ft 2ins player, Mr. Nsaku was signed in 1998 by Portsmouth from Cannes FC but never made it into the 2008 FA Cup winners’ first team. His promising career ended in 2011 when he suffered a knee injury.

Mr. Trabelsi, , a Tunisian who played for Germany’s Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC Wuppertal, was arrested and convicted in Belgium a decade ago on charges of illegal arms possession and being a member of a private militia. Mr. Trabelsi was sentenced to ten years in prison.

In all cases, soccer proved to be a fruitful grooming if not recruiting ground even if Messrs. Karan, Nsaku and Trabelsi were not recruited off the pitch but instead reached out to individuals or groups who could help them join a militant cause.

The post World Cup Sparks Islamist Debate On Rectitude Of Soccer – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

In 2006, I invited the late General Bill Odom to address my Thursday Congressional luncheon group. Gen. Odom, a former NSA director, called the Iraq war “the greatest strategic disaster in American history,” and told the surprised audience that he could not understand why Congress had not impeached the president for pushing this disaster on the United States. History continues to prove the General’s assessment absolutely correct.

In September, 2002, arguing against a US attack on Iraq, I said the following on the House Floor:

No credible evidence has been produced that Iraq has or is close to having nuclear weapons. No evidence exists to show that Iraq harbors al Qaeda terrorists. Quite to the contrary, experts on this region recognize Hussein as an enemy of the al Qaeda and a foe to Islamic fundamentalism.

Unfortunately, Congress did not listen.

As we know, last week the second largest city in Iraq, Mosul, fell to the al-Qaeda allied Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Last week an al-Qaeda that had not been in Iraq before our 2003 invasion threatened to move on the capitol, Baghdad, after it easily over-ran tens of thousands of Iraqi military troops.

The same foreign policy “experts” who lied us into the Iraq war are now telling us we must re-invade Iraq to deal with the disaster caused by their invasion! They cannot admit they were wrong about the invasion being a “cakewalk” that would pay for itself, so they want to blame last week’s events on the 2011 US withdrawal from Iraq. But the trouble started with the 2003 invasion itself, not the 2011 troop withdrawal. Anyone who understands cause and effect should understand this.

The Obama administration has said no option except for ground troops is off the table to help the Iraqi government in this crisis. We should not forget, however, that the administration does not consider Special Forces or the CIA to be “boots on the ground.” So we may well see Americans fighting in Iraq again.

It is also likely that the administration will begin shipping more weapons and other military equipment to the Iraqi army, in the hopes that they might be able to address the ISIS invasion themselves. After years of US training, costing as much as $20 billion, it is unlikely the Iraqi army is up to the task. Judging from the performance of the Iraqi military as the ISIS attacked, much of that money was wasted or stolen.

A big US government weapons transfer to Iraq will no doubt be favored by the US military-industrial complex, which stands to profit further from the Iraq meltdown. This move will also be favored by those in Washington who realize how politically unpopular a third US invasion of Iraq would be at home, but who want to “do something” in the face of the crisis. Shipping weapons may be an action short of war, but it usually leads to war. And as we have already seen in Iraq and Syria, very often these weapons fall into the hands of the al-Qaeda we are supposed to be fighting!

Because of the government’s foolish policy of foreign interventionism, the US is faced with two equally stupid choices: either pour in resources to prop up an Iraqi government that is a close ally with Iran, or throw our support in with al-Qaida in Iraq (as we have done in Syria). I say we must follow a third choice: ally with the American people and spend not one more dollar or one more life attempting to re-make the Middle East. Haven’t we have already done enough damage?

The post Ron Paul: Haven’t We Already Done Enough Damage In Iraq? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Hassan Ahmadian

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has succeeded in less than a week to capture many Iraqi cities, including the populous cities of Mosul and Tikrit. This is an unprecedented development. Neither Al-Qaeda, nor any of its offshoots have been ever able to score such a huge victory in the heartland of the Arab world. On the other hand, this is the first time in the Middle East modern history that the borders among Arab countries have become meaningless and ISIL elements have been in transit between Syria and Iraq without facing any important obstacle. This development has had no precedent since the fall of the Ottoman Empire. The simultaneous operations carried out by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant in Iraq and Syria is proof to high potential of this terrorist group. Even Arab governments are rarely able to engage in more than one war front at the same time and achieve such major goals. Therefore, the question is why and how the ISIL emerged as such a formidable power?

The ISIL was called “the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI)” up to 2011 and was not considered an influential political player in regional equations. When Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi assumed command of the military forces of the Islamic State of Iraq, it was still working under the oversight of the late leader of Al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden. However, later killing of Bin Laden, on the one hand, and rapid spread of the popular revolutions in the Arab world, on the other hand, changed the conditions and paved the way for a parallel alteration in the nature of this terrorist force. From the very beginning, Al-Baghdadi was not very willing to swear allegiance to the successor of Bin Laden, Ayman Al-Zawahiri. However, and in order to maintain the unity of the organization under his command, he finally gave in to the allegiance. While the beginning of popular uprisings in the Arab countries was clear sign that Al-Qaeda and its subsidiaries were lagging behind the real developments on the ground in Arab societies, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi and his men were waiting for their opportunity in order to take advantage of these developments.

That opportunity first showed up in Syria. Of course, what happened in Syria was not a result of plans made by the ISIL or other jihadist Salafist groups. They only took advantage of the situation. The main factor that helped to promote sectarian divides was countries which were considered the main losers of these developments at the beginning of the aforesaid revolutionary uprisings. Those countries were topped by the government of Saudi Arabia. Therefore, this country and its regional allies decided to minimize the damage they had incurred as a result of the revolutionary uprisings by taking advantage of regional media and restoring the traditional balance of power in the Middle East. As a result, they reached the conclusion that the best way to do this was to intensify negative sectarian discourse against the government of the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad as well as the Islamic Republic of Iran. The main output of this approach was creating difficult conditions for Assad’s government in Syria and military intervention by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Bahrain under the pretext that Iran was interfering in the Persian Gulf kingdom to instigate its Shia population against the government. All these instances were based on a sectarian discourse whose main element was revival and further strengthening of jihadist Salafi groups, including the ISIL.

The beginning of revolutionary movements in the Arab world showed that the jihadist Salafist current is way behind what is actually happening within Arab societies. In none of the Arab countries that underwent revolutions, they were part of those developments. It was only through escalation of sectarian discourse that the jihadist Salafist entity, especially Al-Qaeda and its offshoots, found more breathing room. By putting the highest emphasis on the promotion of the sectarian discourse, they once again managed to emerge as the main protagonists behind developments in the Arab world. In this way, the sectarian discourse succeeded in attracting a great number of jihadist Salafist forces from the entire world to Syria. In addition, a considerable amount of financial aid was channeled to Salafist militants from various sources. Most of that aid came in through unofficial channels and were contributed by the citizens, and sometimes princes, in the Persian Gulf states. In this way, it didn’t take long before Al-Qaeda and its subsidiaries managed to marginalize the Free Syrian Army and other opposition forces in Syria.

The situation of the ISIL, however, was quite different. This group was actually born in Iraq and most of its commanders and members, including Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, were Iraqis. After they lost the maneuvering room in Iraq as a result of the inauguration of the National Council for the Awakening of Iraq, the group practically failed to restore its influence in Iraq. Even following the dissolution of local awakening councils, Al-Qaeda was still stranded in Iraq. Since 2007, when Al-Baghdadi became the leader of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, the group had not been able to make a basic change in the situation. Under these conditions, the emergence of the crisis in Syria provided them with more breathing space. The first step was to change the name of the organization to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. The change of name showed the overarching nature of the new organization and its unwillingness for being restricted within the limits of recognized governments, on the one hand. On the other hand, it showed that the group was going to broaden its support base beyond Iraq and draw on the support from its members in other places as well. Of course, even before this development, the Al-Qaeda in Iraq had many non-Iraqi members. However, this change practically put more emphasis on multinational nature of this terrorist organization.

In the second step, they got separated from Al-Qaeda and Ayman Al-Zawahiri, in order to launch their own operations independently. Following the birth of Al-Nusra Front, Harakat Ahrar ash-Sham Al Islami (Islamic Movement of the Free Men of the Levant), and other terrorist groups in Syria, which was marked by intensification of rivalries between them and the ISIL, Ayman Al-Zawahiri made efforts to bring all of them together under the cover of Al-Qaeda. However, the ISIL rejected those efforts, increased its distance from Al-Qaeda, and its power continued to rise. Following these developments, many previous followers of Al-Zawahiri breached their allegiance with him and took the oath of allegiance with Al-Baghdadi, which greatly increased his influence and standing in the face of Al-Zawahiri. “Allegiance of Khorasan,” which was announced by declaration of a statement about many subsidiaries of Al-Qaeda swearing allegiance to Al-Baghdadi in April 2014, further strengthened his position and the position of the ISIL in an unprecedented manner. Through that allegiance, many subsidiary groups of Al-Qaeda in Islamic countries joined the ISIL.

Another development which helped the ISIL to become what it is today was the support accorded to this group by some Pan-Arab secular currents. Both groups seek the same goals in Iraq: undermining the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, domination over territories predominantly inhabited by Iraqi Sunnis, and exacting revenge on Shias, or as they call them, “Safavid” Shias. As a result, Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, a deputy to former Iraqi dictator, Saddam Hussein, and leader of the main faction of the Baath Party of Iraq, (who was also Deputy Chairman of the Iraqi Revolutionary Command Council under Saddam) has gathered many commanders of the dissolved Baathist army of Iraq under his umbrella and is currently sharing his military experience with the ISIL. As a consequence, a combination of military expertise and unprecedented violence has brought Iraqi to the situation which it is currently experiencing. Therefore, recent reports that say many commanders of the Iraqi army have betrayed their country and cooperated with the ISIL forces during the occupation of the northern city of Mosul should not be taken lightly.

As a result of the aforesaid conditions, the ISIL has achieved goals which are practically beyond its true potential. It is, however, obvious that after the Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani issued his new fatwa (religious decree) calling on all able-bodied Iraqis to take up arms and defend their country, the ISIL will not be able to progress further. Before the fall of Mosul, only 50-60 armed men from a group that has been assigned to protect the holy shrines in Samarra, fought and succeeded in stopping ISIL fighters from entering the city. Therefore, when the fight against ISIL becomes a religious obligation, as a result of Ayatollah Sistani’s fatwa, this terrorist group will not be able to make any more gains. So far, tens of thousands of Iraqis have volunteered to fight against the ISIL. There is no doubt that this popular and religious wave fill finally curb the progress of the group.

When it comes to the Western countries’ reaction, as far as the past experience has shown, their support for extremist currents or even their silence in the face of third parties’ support for these groups will exacerbate security challenges. The terrorist attack on the US soil on 9/11, 2001, was the result of the 1980s war in Afghanistan as well as the 1991 invasion of Iraq. The support offered to extremist forces in Syria has brought about the current conditions in Iraq. These conditions can also spread to other Arab countries and such extremist forces are also prone to plan and carry out attacks against the national interests of the Western countries. As the conditions become more difficult for the operations of the ISIL in Iraq, they are sure to use their potentials to foment insecurity in other parts of the Middle East and beyond. This is especially true because the ISIL forces have robbed a lot of money from Iraqi banks, which has helped them to be wealthier than what Al-Qaeda was at the outset of its activities.

The West, in general, and the United States, in particular, have no other choice, but to lend their support to the government of Maliki and back his efforts for the eradication of the ISIL. Even in Syria, the West will finally have to choose between the Syrian government and the extremist forces. Any hesitation in this regard will have no other result but further strengthening of the extremist forces. The non-extremist opposition groups in Syria, which are not considered a major power in comparison with extremists, can reach a reconciliation with the Syrian government over implementation of domestic reforms through mediation of regional countries. The important issue is that the West should first formulate its final plan for dealing with the ISIL and other terrorist groups, on the one hand, while warning its regional allies, topped by the government of Saudi Arabia, against providing further support to extremist forces, on the other.

Hassan Ahmadian
Senior Researcher; Expediency Council’s Center for Strategic Research

The post ISIL’s Rising Power, A Challenge To International Community appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Going into Friday’s match between reigning World Cup champion Spain and the Netherlands, not even the most deranged fan expected such a resounding Dutch performance, with most supporters anticipating a hard-fought Spanish victory. Days later, while the entire population of Spain copes with that unfamiliar feeling of mortality and Iker Casillas considers a new line of work, a surprising fact has surfaced: it seems the only fan who predicted a 5-1 scoreline was a Spaniard who won a $135,000 prize in the process.

Jacobo Ríos-Capapé, a 56-year old architect and ex-referee from Valencia, took part in a contest organized by Spanish fuel company, Cespa. Somehow divining the 5-1 scoreline weeks in advance, Ríos-Capapé placed his entry for the match alongside 70,000 other participants and 120,000 entries with the hopes of winning one of Cespa’s grand prizes, $135,000 worth of free gasoline.

As it turns out, Ríos-Capapé was the only participant in the entire country to guess such a brutal scoreline. The entire country. In a contest where you could entire multiple times. So convinced was Spain of their dominance that literally only one person predicted a 5-1 scoreline when they could have entered multiple times with different scorelines.

His rationale? He’s a wizard.

Actually, that’s not true. While it’s fun to imagine Ríos-Capapé staring into tea leaves, his explanation is pretty straight forward, at least according to Marca:

“Hoping that Spain would win, of course, I thought that if Holland were to beat us, it would be big, so I came up with the 5-1 scoreline, without being very convinced by it. Actually after, I thought it was outrageous and wouldn’t happen.”

With $135,000 worth of free gasoline, Ríos-Capapé must be satisfied, right? Actually, no. According to Marca, Ríos-Capapé has plans to enter Cespa’s contest for the second match, for the lesser prize of about $68,000 worth of free gas.

“It will be my personal revenge for the defeat to Holland. Tomorrow I’m going to fill up and I’ll play that Spain beats Chile 5-1.”

The post Spaniard Wins $135,000 In Free Gas After Predicting 5-1 Loss To Holland appeared first on Eurasia Review.

he Elephants of Côte d’Ivoire charged late in their Group C opener in Recife, scoring twice in two second-half minutes to overturn an early deficit against Japan. A pair of pin-point crosses from Serge Aurier created goals for Wilfried Bony and Gervinho, silencing the pro-Japan crowd at Arena Pernambuco.

Japan’s crisp, incisive passing caused Côte d’Ivoire problems early in the match. And the European-based triangle of Shinji Kagawa, Kesiuke Honda and Shinji Okazaki carved out an opener after only 16 minutes. Okazaki forced a corner with his goal-bound header on the quarter-hour, and Honda was left unmarked at the edge of the penalty area. The kick was taken short and Kagawa laid the ball on for the AC Milan ace who took two touches, one to burst into the box and the other to fire home with his left foot.

Les Elephants, with the iconic Didier Drogba on the bench at the start, were dangerous from set-pieces and on the counter-attack. Captain Yaya Toure, just back from injury and perhaps not 100 per cent, fired his set-piece over from 25 yards in the 23rd minute and Arthur Boka did the same from the other side of the box on the half-hour.

The Africans stepped up the pressure late in the half and Wilfried Bony fired off the post form a tight angle. Physically dominant, the Ivorian strikers put Japanese goalkeeper Eiji Kawashima through his paces as the opening period wore on.

Côte d’Ivoire continued to hunt an equaliser early in the second half. Solomon Kalou threatened with runs inside from the left and the Japanese were forced further and further back into a defensive posture. Ivorian coach Sabri Lamouchi ratcheted up the pressure, too, by bringing on Drogba midway through the half.

The former Chelsea icon’s insertion made an immediate impact by stretching the Japanese defence. Bony moved into the fresh space and headed home a Serge Aurier cross from close-range in the 64th minute. Seconds later, another inch-perfect cross from Aurier picked out Gervinho racing forward, and the Roma man’s header also bulged the back of the net.

Two goals in two minutes and the Japanese drums fell silent. The Wounded Asian champions next face Greece up the coast in Natal on 19 June, the same day that Côte d’Ivoire take on group leaders Colombia inland in the capital Brasilia.

The post World Cup: Drogba Inspires Ivory Coast To 2-1 Win Over Japan appeared first on Eurasia Review.

When it hasn’t been your day – your week, your month, or even your year – it might be time to turn to Facebook friends for a little positive reinforcement. According to a new study by social scientists at Cornell University, the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), and Facebook, emotions can spread among users of online social networks.

The researchers reduced the amount of either positive or negative stories that appeared in the news feed of 689,003 randomly selected Facebook users, and found that the so-called “emotional contagion” effect worked both ways.

“People who had positive content experimentally reduced on their Facebook news feed, for one week, used more negative words in their status updates,” reports Jeff Hancock, professor of communication at Cornell’s College of Agriculture and Life Sciences and co-director of its Social Media Lab. “When news feed negativity was reduced, the opposite pattern occurred: Significantly more positive words were used in peoples’ status updates.”

The experiment is the first to suggest that emotions expressed via online social networks influence the moods of others, the researchers report in “Experimental Evidence of Massive-Scale Emotional Contagion through Social Networks,” published online this month in PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Science) Social Science.

Previous experiments had demonstrated emotional contagion in real-world situations – interacting with a happy person is infectiously pleasant, for instance, whereas crossing swords with a grump can launch an epidemic of grumpiness.

But those “contagions” result from experiencing an interaction, not exposure to emotion, and researchers wondered if online exposure to mood-laden text could change moods. They also wondered whether exposure to the happiness of others may actually be depressing, producing a social comparison effect.

Facebook, with more than 1.3 billion users of every emotive disposition, and its news feed feature – in which a constantly tweaked, Facebook-controlled ranking algorithm regularly filters posts, stories and activities enjoyed by friends – proved an ideal place to start.

Researchers never saw the content of actual posts, per Facebook’s data use policy; instead, they counted only the occurrence of positive and negative words in more than 3 million posts with a total of 122 million words. They report that 4 million of those words were “positive” and 1.8 million were “negative.”

Hancock said peoples’ emotional expressions on Facebook predicted their friends’ emotional expressions, even days later.

“We also observed a withdrawal effect: People who were exposed to fewer emotional posts in their news feed were less expressive overall on the following days,” Hancock wrote in the paper.

“This observation, and the fact that people were more emotionally positive in response to positive emotion updates from their friends, stands in contrast to theories that suggest viewing positive posts by friends on Facebook may somehow affect us negatively,” he added. “In fact, this is the result when people are exposed to less positive content, rather than more.”

Hancock plans to direct future research into how expressions of positive and negative emotions influence levels of engagement in other online activities, such as liking and commenting on posts.He said the findings could have implications for public health.

“Online messages influence our experience of emotions, which may affect a variety of offline behaviors,” Hancock said.

The post Emotional Contagion Sweeps Facebook, Finds Study appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Climate change is unlikely to lead to more days of extreme cold, similar to those that gripped the USA in a deep freeze last winter, new research has shown.

The Arctic amplification phenomenon refers to the faster rate of warming in the Arctic compared to places further south. It is this phenomenon that has been linked to a spike in the number of severe cold spells experienced in recent years over Europe and North America.

However, new research by University of Exeter expert Dr James Screen has shown that Arctic amplification has actually reduced the risk of cold extremes across large swathes of the Northern Hemisphere.

The intriguing new study, published in leading scientific journal Nature Climate Change, questions growing fears that parts of Europe and North America will experience a greater number, or more severe, extreme cold days over the course of the next century.

Dr Screen, a Mathematics Research Fellow at the University of Exeter, said: “Autumn and winter days are becoming warmer on average, and less variable from day-to-day. Both factors reduce the chance of extremely cold days.”

The idea that there was a link between Arctic amplification and extreme weather conditions became prevalent during the severe winter weather that plagued large areas of the United States in January 2014, leading to major transport disruption, power cuts and crop damage.

In his study, Dr Screen examined detailed climate records to show that autumn and winter temperature variability has significantly decreased over the mid-to-high latitude Northern Hemisphere in recent decades.

He found that this has occurred mainly because northerly winds and associated cold days are warming more rapidly than southerly winds and warm days.

Dr Screen said: “Cold days tend to occur when the wind is blowing from the north, bringing Arctic air south into the mid-latitudes. Because the Arctic air is warming so rapidly these cold days are now less cold than they were in the past.”

Using the latest mathematical climate modelling, Dr Screen has also been able to show that these changes will continue in to the future, with projected future decreases in temperature variability in all seasons, except summer.

‘Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid-to-high-latitudes’, by James Screen, is published in Nature Climate Change online, on Sunday, June 15.

The post Arctic Warming Linked To Fewer European And US Cold Weather Extremes appeared first on Eurasia Review.

US health officials are on high alert as a mosquito-borne virus that yet has no cure has struck six of the US states. The virus called chikungunya causes severe joint pain which can last for years.

The latest case of the virus has been confirmed by Tennessee officials as the resident of Madison County, has been tested positive for the virus. The officials, however, added that there was no transmission to other residents in the state.

“It will be more difficult for the virus to establish itself here,” Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, Tennessee told Tech Times.

Rhode Island authorities also confirmed two cases of the mosquito-borne virus. They involve travelers who returned from the Dominican Republic on May 17 and May 29, said state officials, adding that authorities are currently investigating several other suspicious cases of the virus.

Florida has been the worst hit by the virus, with at least 25 cases reported in the state, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The Florida Department of Health released a set of guidelines in order to avoid becoming infected and spreading the virus.

The cases of the virus, transmitted to humans through mosquitoes, have also been confirmed in North Carolina, Nebraska and Indiana.

On Wednesday, the virus affected two residents from the US Virgin Islands, according to local authorities.

“The first case has been confirmed as locally acquired; the second case is an imported case with the patient recent travel history outside of the Territory,” said the Department of Health in the US Virgin Islands in a press release.

Florida officials advised residents “to wear long sleeves and long pants when possible,” and “use mosquito-proof screens on windows and doors.”

Symptoms of the malaria-like illness include fever, headache, chills, sensitivity to light, and rash, vomiting and severe joint pain, according to World Health Organization (WHO). Occasional cases of eye, neurological and heart complications have been reported, as well as gastrointestinal complaints, it adds. They usually begin three to seven days after infection occurs. The consequences include a long period of joint pains which may persist for years in some cases. Though the virus rarely leads to death, the problem is that there is currently no vaccine available. The treatment only aims at improving the symptoms.

According to WHO, Chikungunya was first described during an outbreak in southern Tanzania in 1952, eastern Africa, and since then has been detected in nearly 40 countries in Asia, Africa, Europe and also in the Americas.

The Pan American Health Organization says that about 165,000 cases have been either suspected or confirmed in the Caribbean since it was first documented in 2013-2014 with 14 death cases. Most of the cases have been detected in Dominican Republic, Guadalupe, Martinique and Haiti.

The post Incurable Chikungunya Virus Spreads In US, At Least 6 States Affected appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Bolivian President Evo Morales has urged the world community to bring an end to the UN Security Council as it is not meeting its goal of securing peace between states, the Bolivian ABI agency reports.

Saturday evening, Morales opened a meeting of the Group of 77 (G77) plus China in the Bolivian city of Santa Cruz. According to the organizers’ plans, the final document produced by the summit should become the basis for the development of a new “agenda” of the UN.

“International organizations are required, which will contribute to the development of the world, the destruction of world hierarchies, and the equality of states. Therefore, the Security Council must disappear,” said Morales. Instead of ensuring peace between peoples, he believes that the UN has supported military action and aggression by “imperial powers” to acquire the resources of countries harmed by intervention.

“Today, instead of the Security Council there is the Insecurity Council, the Council of imperial intervention,” the agency quotes the Bolivian leader. Earlier, Morales said that mankind should take immediate and urgent measures to save “Mother Earth” and develop a new world order within the framework of the UN. He criticized the “imperial speculative model” of world development, which, according to him, had generated an institutional crisis, caused inequality and created an unfair power structure in international organizations, including the UN, IMF, WTO and others.

“We have reached the limit, it is necessary to take urgent decisions at the global level for the sake of saving the society, humanity and Mother Earth,” the Bolivian leader said.

Evo Morales also invited Russia to join G77 saying that “to fulfill our tasks that benefit the world we urge Russia and other countries that are our brothers to join G77.” He noted that if Russia decides to accept the invitation, the name of the bloc could be changed to G77 plus China and Russia.

The Group of 77 was established on June 15, 1964, by developing countries in order to promote their own economic interests. Originally it consisted of 77 members, now it consists of 133 states. Currently, G77 is the largest intergovernmental organization of developing countries operating under a UN framework.

The post Bolivia’s Morales Urges Dissolution Of UN Security Council appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Aya Elbrqawi

A Libyan jihadist just home from Syria was shot dead in Derna this week during a feud between rival terror groups.

The al-Battar Brigade, which is affiliated with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), issued a statement on Monday (June 9th) saying that heads would be cut off, stomachs slit and Libya filled with graves to avenge Mahdi Saad Abu al-Abyadh al-Gaithi.

Al-Ghaithi was killed in a clash with the Abu Slim Martyrs Brigade, inflaming the conflict between the jihadist groups.

“The people of Derna are disempowered,” said Tahani Obeidi, a 28 year old housewife. “Most hope that the army enters Derna to save them from the pressure they are suffering at the hands of the terrorists.”

“Takfirists are in control and [we] fear assassinations,” she added.

For his part, media figure Mahmud Shammam described extremist groups as “forces of darkness and evil”.

“They are afraid of ballot boxes, and thus use their religious power represented by the mufti to encourage suicide operations,” he said.

“ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra and Ansar al-Sharia are trying to push us into the abyss, but the Libyan people will not allow them to do so,” Shammam added.

On the other hand, Ramzi Yousef, a member of Ansar al-Sharia said, “The group of al-Battar, the word refers to one of the names of the sword an affiliate of Ansar al-Sharia. It was founded in Syria and all its members are from Libya. They are the fiercest because they do not negotiate but just act. ”

He affirmed that it was a group trained in weapons and specialising in suicide attacks, bombings, and assassinations that they learned in Syria.

According to local residents, the threat to Libyan civilians from the rival extremist groups is not just violence.

“A family next door with eight young girls was forced to escape to Benghazi in August,” engineer Firas al-Mansouri, 32, told Magharebia. “The father was afraid and moved, to get away from extremist groups that marry off Libyan girls to al-Qaeda, against their parents’ will.”

“The Abu Salim brigade is another form of al-Qaeda and Ansar are the same as ISIS,” al-Mansouri added.

The post Libya: ISIS Menace Al-Qaeda In Derna appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Global Efforts to Address Environmental Sustainability

The First UN Environment Assembly (UNEA) will convene in Nairobi, Kenya, from 23 to 27 June 2014. A UN official source says this marks a historic milestone in UNEP’s 43-year history and is expected to be attended by high-level delegations from over 160 UN Member and Observer States.

UN Secretary-General Mr. Ban Ki-moon, the President of the UN General Assembly, Ministers of Environment and Foreign Affairs and Chief Executives of a number of international organisations are set to attend the newly-established UNEA that will bring together over 1,200 high-level participants from government, business and civil society.

UNEA is the newly constituted UN high-level platform for decision making on environment that is tasked to chart a new course in the way the international community addresses environmental sustainability challenges. More than 80 Ministers, Vice-Ministers, Secretaries of State as well as heads of international convention secretariats have confirmed their attendance, so far.

UN Under-Secretary-General and Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) Mr. Achim Steiner, said, “The convening of the first UNEA session in Nairobi – home of UNEP and the often referred to environment capital of the world – represents a coming-of-age for the global environment community. For the first time, all 193 members of the UN, plus Observer States and major stakeholders, will be represented in the new assembly—thereby bestowing upon UNEA a new level of representation, legitimacy and authority.”

“A broad range of actors from the world of economy, finance, social sciences, legislation, the judiciary and development are also due to participate to help shape the global environment agenda, under the stewardship of UNEA. The issues facing this first session of UNEA are weighty ones which require the voices of all member states and partners to be heard.”

“Now more than ever, it has become increasingly clear that the dichotomy between environmental sustainability and economic and social development should be overcome through the careful management of natural resources as the keystone of a prosperous and stable society. In this new forum, UNEP and its partners will be able to provide governments and other policymakers with the science, policy options and platform, for international cooperation to more effectively address the environmental dimension of sustainable development,” he added.

For Kenya, the host country of UNEP’s headquarters for over four decades, the convening of UNEA in its capital city of Nairobi marks another milestone in this pioneering partnership.

Ambassador Martin Kimani, Kenya’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, said, “Kenya is ready to welcome the world’s leading environmentalists and world experts, working in all areas related to sustainable development to UNEA in June. Our country has made immense strides in building a Green Economy – observe our cutting edge geothermal developments and the high percentage of our GDP from nature tourism.”

“The success of UNEA and UNEP are high in our priorities. Kenya is taking every measure to ensure the success of this landmark event. We are inviting delegates from around the world to actively participate in this historic moment and make their contributions to the assembly in a safe and friendly city that is rolling out every welcome to them,” he said.

As the new governing body of UNEP as well as the world’s Environment Assembly, UNEA has the mandate to make strategic decisions and provide political guidance in the work of UNEP, and promote a strong science-policy interface.

The first UNEA session is expected to deliver a series of outcomes that would spell out concrete actions to address the key environmental challenges discussed at UNEA. Where appropriate, UNEA may also recommend draft resolutions for adoption at the United Nations General Assembly for UN system-wide action.

At UNEA’s high-level segment – held under the slogan A Life of Dignity for All— Ministers and international leaders will gather to address two key sustainable development and environment topics of current international concern, namely: Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including sustainable consumption and production; and the illegal trade in wildlife to address the escalation in poaching and surge in related environmental crime.

To complement the Ministerial discussions, UNEA will also see the convening of two Symposia that address two key aspects of environmental sustainability:the environmental rule of law through the gathering of leading representatives of the international judicial community, including Chief Justices, Attorney Generals and Judges.

The role of Finance in the Green Economy by bringing to Nairobi and UNEA, leaders from the world of business, finance and industry The UNEA deliberations will conclude with a High-Level Segment led by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and President of the General Assembly John Ashe. It will comprise a: strategic briefing on the state of the environment by UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner; ministerial plenaries on Sustainable Development Goals, including Sustainable Consumption and Production, and the illegal trade in wildlife.

During the UNEA week, more than 40 special and side events, fora, and high level dialogues, will take place at UNEP’s headquarters, covering a range of issues, such as: climate change, gender and the environment, green jobs, air quality, Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and the sound management of chemicals, among other topics.

The post First UN Environment Assembly In Nairobi Heralds New Era – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Anwar Ahmed*, 50, an Al-Shabab defector, was drawn to Somalia’s Salafist armed group both by the promise of a wage and a belief in the Islamic ways of “rights and justice for all”.

Stationed in the Bakool provincial capital of Hudur, Ahmed worked mainly as a sentry, while also corralling residents to answer the call to prayer, collecting road taxes – up to US$300 for freight trucks and between $10 and $20 for cars – and assisting in the collection of zakat, the 2.5 percent tax on annual earnings paid in either cash or kind.

Ahmed’s own pay was modest: $20 or $30 every few months during his three year stint with the armed group, never enough to provide for his four children and wife. “ On a personal level, there was nothing to gain,” Ahmed recalls. “I thought Al-Shabab were real about Islam’s call for justice for all. But it was based on a big lie. The commanders got it all.”

Disillusioned, he made his way to Baidoa, crossing the hills, surviving on the generosity of herders who gave him water and milk. After being screened by Somali intelligence officials, he entered an ex-combatants programme.

The former killer

Gabeyre Mohamed*, 28, was a member of the elite Amniyat, Al-Shabab’s “secret service”, whose operatives were reportedly implicated in Nairobi’s Westgate mall attack in 2013.

Upgraded from being an Al-Shabab foot soldier to joining a five person Amniyat cell, Mohamed acknowledges it was an honour to be chosen, but despised his role as a killer. “I was given a pistol, a name and a picture of them and sent to kill them. I always lied and came back and said this man is nowhere to be seen.” His conscience told him to leave. “I made up my mind, as I believed I was being sent to kill innocent people.”

At the Baidoa ex-combatant centre he gets no money, but three meals a day, and the hope of a driver’s licence and an education. “I will not return to Al-Shabab,” Mohamed says. “Even the promise of heaven will never make me go back.”

Ahmed and Mohamed are among those who have left Al-Shabab and sought to make a new life. But working out what to do with Al-Shabab defectors is not easy either for the Somali authorities or for the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM).

Waldemar Vrey is director of UNSOM’s Rule of Law and Security Institutions Group (ROLSIG), with part of its brief being to deal with former Al-Shabab ex-combatants.

Vrey describes the work as “delicate”. Applying Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) to an organization officially declared a terrorist group has its own difficulties, not least when it comes to gaining donor support.

High risk and low risk

Under current procedures, defectors from Al-Shabab are vetted by the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) and the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). They are classed as either “high risk” or “low risk”.

Vrey says around 1,000 “low risk” ex-fighters have received some rehabilitation and skills training. Those who want to go home can do so “if it is agreeable to the communities”.

Vrey points out that there is no shortage of replacements for those wanting to quit Al-Shabab. “As 1,000 defect, another 1,000 are recruited. It is not as though recruitment will stand still.” Current estimates of the number of active Al-Shabab fighters vary from 5,000 to 9,000.

It is with the more experienced fighters that the dilemmas become more serious. “The high-end guys, the ones that are hardened, the ones NISA feels cannot go through the rehab process, they have to go through a judicial process,” Vrey points out. “The majority of them are sitting in jail and it is with them we have stumbling blocks.”

The trials have brought new dangers. There was a series of assassinations of civilian judges presiding over court cases for high risk Al-Shabab fighters, who had either defected or been captured. The solution of the authorities was to bring in military tribunals. But the tribunals’ readiness to apply the death penalty drew disapproval from the international community and human rights organizations.

A road-map for ex-combatants

In an attempt to find lasting solutions for fighters who want a new start, in April 2013, the Transitional Federal Government published a road map for a National Programme for the Treatment and handling of Disengaging Combatants and Youth at Risk in Somalia.

The initiative came in the wake of significant military victories by AMISOM and Somali national forces against Al-Shabab in Mogadishu in August 2011, Belet Weyne in Hiraan province in February 2012 and then with the securing of Baidoa and the southern port of Kismayo.

Four Transitional Facilities (TF) for low risk ex-Al-Shabab fighters are in various phases of development, in Mogadishu, Baidoa, Belet Weyne and Kismayo.

A NISA official in Kismayo, who declined to be identified, told IRIN that former combatants are examined on the basis of their previous history and ideological convictions, which determine the kind of threat they may still pose. The process can be long and laborious. “The longest screening I was involved in took about one month. Some might tell the truth immediately. Others might not say anything, while in other cases stories will change.”

UNSOM’s legal considerations associated with rehabilitation of ex-Al-Shabab fighters, has provided for interventions from outside the mission, with a three man unit, known as the Serendi team – named after Mogadishu’s TF – funded by the Norwegian, Danish and Spanish governments.

“They see us as disassembling their force and we are a target”
Serendi team members include a Special Forces bodyguard and a European-based Somali engineer who fled Somalia during the civil conflict of the 1990s, back on a two-year sabbatical.

Team members did not want to be identified, highlighting the threat from Al-Shabab. “They see us as disassembling their force and we are a target”, one pointed out. The same dangers apply to everyone involved in DDR. A Serendi team member told IRIN that around 70 percent of Al-Shabab disengaged fighters who had been screened had been classed as low risk.

The Serendi team’s methods blend Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) techniques, including individual mentoring and the sharing of experiences between the ex-Al-Shabab, with skills training programmes for livelihoods. DDR experts say building-up self-esteem for ex-fighters is vital.

The militias outside Al-Shabab

Vrey notes that the focus on the war against Al-Shabab has overlooked the activities of other militias. Having profited from two decades of Somalia’s breaking down into a failed state, some groups continue to prosper.

They include clan-based militias, through to the private armies of warlords and business concerns raising their own armed forces to protect their financial interests.

A February 2014 briefing by the Somalia and Eritrea Monitoring Group highlighted dangers of small-arms proliferation following the partial lifting of the country’s arms embargo and the scale of violence used by different militias.

The briefing noted “indiscriminate attacks” by Abgaal and Habar Gedir clan-based armed forces on civilian areas in December 2013, “resulting in the killing and wounding of children, women, and unarmed young men; rape; looting and burning of villages, and extrajudicial executions.”

Vrey said the advantage of other armed groups was they “are not Al-Shabab,” which spares DDR programming the pitfalls of engaging with a terror listed organisation. Furthermore, most militias were already within their communities, making it easier for local authorities to end conflicts through economic revival programmes and other grassroots initiatives.

Ensuring proper facilities for ex-combatants takes time. For example, the location of a TF in Kismayo was recently identified, but security and infrastructural problems slowed things down. To carry out a 30-minute recce of the building, the Serendi team required an escort by Kenyan AMISOM soldiers, NISA, the Somali National Army and close protection security officers. Meanwhile, Al-Shabab defectors in the port city are living in safe houses.

Peaceful solutions within the clans

In Baidoa, where the French funded TF is about to open, the delays have given clans a bigger role in the rehabilitation of about 120 ex-Al Shabab combatants.

A Baidoa elder, Abdul Kadir Hassan, told IRIN that families were taking responsibility for ex-combatants and working out if they could be trusted. “It depends on the individual, but by leaving, most ex-fighters have made up their minds already. So they are seen as safe.” Hassan stressed that DDR was crucial for peace in Somalia.

Elder Adan Abdi, told IRIN about 90 percent of Al-Shabab forces were Somali and “joined because they had no means”. But he stressed that “Al-Shabab is a foreign ideology” and the foreigners would have to be hunted down, not rehabilitated.

Clan elders have an important role to play in managing clan feuds caused by the conflict. Hassan said a family could request “blood money” as a form of reconciliation, but wide scale poverty made this an unrealistic solution.

He says it is better to defend the ex-fighters on the basis that they were not free at the time of their actions. “We argue that they were brainwashed, so they were not in their right minds and in this way we can often resolve things through clan justice”.

However, clan elders say the development of the centres is hugely important. For Abdi, there have to be enough centres and they must be able to cater properly for the former fighters. “If someone is hungry and you say come and eat, but there is no food, will they come? The answer is no.

“If you offer them a life they will come. If the centres provide, the ex-combatants will contact their friends in Al-Shabab and tell them it’s not as bad as we thought and they will come as well. And then this thing will end very quickly”.

*The names have been changed.

The post Somalia: No Easy Way Forward For Al-Shabab Defectors – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Dina El Sayed

The Arab Spring revolution set the Middle East on fire. The Middle Eastern countries tried to forcibly overthrow their governments in favor of a “new system” with more equitable social order. In this research, I will explore the factors that lead to rise of protest in the Middle East. The hypothesis in my research is that social media was the main reason for the Arab Spring. I looked at different economic and political factors. The main reason that was studied is the use of Facebook, as well as economic factors such as GDP growth, inflation, unemployment and political factor the regime type. After analyzing the results I find that autocracy and social media has effect on the protest but the use of Facebook has more effect on rise of protest.

Over the past two decades, one of the most dynamic developments related to digital media has been the rise of social network sites. Since the launch of the first social applications in the late 1990s, they attracted over a billion active users worldwide. Nowadays, social media is a part of our daily lives which led to a cultural shift in the way we communicate. This revolution changed the perception about the media and how governments communicate with their citizens. The uprising defined the new understanding of the power of communication. After it the Arab governments realized media’s ability to topple regimes and change leadership. It also proved that censorship is out of date. The state can’t maintain its monopoly over media with all the technological advancement in satellite television. However, the social media overcame the satellite television in popular mobilization. Mainly the failure of state-run media gave the digital channels of communication power.

It become a tool for collective mobilizations and protest movements in history. Narratives about revolution often preceded major events, and social media has spread the stories of protest across international borders. The social media carried messages about freedom and democracy across MENA region and helped to spread the motivation and the success of political uprising. Activists fighting for democracy built social networks and organized political action through social media mainly Facebook and Twitter.

During the Arab Spring, social media mobilized the supporters and provided new insights about social problems. Discovering the root causes of the problem is critical for the state. Policymaker in the post-revolution governments must understand why this occurred so as to prevent future radicalization. Policymakers interest in the Arab spring focuses on the new regime types that will rise. Will it lead to rise of democratic regime or bring Muslim parties? Will the rise of democratic regimes in authoritarian Arab states lead to more cooperation with the democratically formed governments and the use the social media as a tool for public diplomacy? Social media was used as a tool to over throw regimes, but will it be a tool in near future to help establish democracy in the region? Can social media build democratic government? Social media allowed foreign observers to closely monitor actions taking place in Middle East allowing more scrutiny and enhancing transparency, and accountability that will put pressure on the state. In addition, social media should be used by the new governments as a mean to promote elections and candidates. On the other hand it can be also used by grassroots to monitor violations. The most important outcome of the Arab Spring was ending the old media regime and movement towards a new transparent independent media system. The next step is providing those governments in transition the knowledge to establish independent media and training for the government on new communication methods with their citizens. The governments should build modern media which protects their citizens and promotes accountability and good government in order to avoid another uprising.

The social media played a central role in the protests across the Middle East in organizing the protests for democratic change through gathering demonstrators, manipulating police and security forces and providing instant, live, news feeds of information updates. Two distinct views exist about social media causing the revolution, on the other hand, the contradictory view that social media has no cause on revolution start. Those revolutions just as the other ones that happened throughout the history are peoples’ revolution with a unique characteristics: the modernization of demonstrations through social media as a result of the information age we live in. Thus social media has become the new weapon of democracy allowing new opportunities for political expression which are difficult to suppress.

Dina El Sayed is a graduate from School of Diplomacy-Seton Hall University and specializes in Foreign Policy Analysis and Conflict Negotiation.

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As a former detractor who has not been a fan of the Obama administration’s foreign policy toward Somalia, it is an overstatement to say that I watched Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman’s speech on June 3rd with certain level of skepticism. Of course, nothing more than that healthy dose necessary in politics to clear the vision and fine-tune the mind. Nonetheless, I wasn’t expecting any substantive change.

So, when a friend called me right before Ambassador Sherman unfolded the new policy to ask what I thought was coming; my response was “Nothing more than kinder, gentler drone diplomacy.” But, I was wrong – though not entirely.

Ambassador Sherman’s speech at the USIP was perhaps the most comprehensive and insightful presentation on Somalia in the past two decades. Aside from the meaning conveyed through the script, the Ambassador delivered it with the right temperament and tone.

The Domestic Side

Perhaps the most hope-inspiring aspect of the speech is the unequivocal declaration that the U.S. sees ‘unified Somalia’ in its best interest and how the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) must get its house in line in order to help facilitate a negotiated political settlement.

“Moving forward, (FGS) must preserve the strengths of these regional administrations while reconciling them with Somalia’s national identity. The appropriate means for accomplishing this include dialogue, ballot box and the judicial process,” said Ambassador Sherman. The U.S. “believes stable federal Somalia with a credible national government in Mogadishu is in the best interest of all Somalis. But to achieve this, there must be willingness to compromise on every side,” she added.

Ambassador Sherman also underscored the importance of having clear and agreed-upon layout on geographical boundaries and demarcation of authorities- something that the Provisional Constitution omits. Aside from its potential to ignite future clan or greed-based wars, this contentious issue is critical “because investors would be reluctant to make commitments if there is confusion on who is in charge,” she declared.

The Foreign Side

The speech was dotted with sufficient diplomatic signals that not only indicate U.S. readiness to do business with Somalia, but also to establish—especially with regard to the regional powers—that ‘There is a new sheriff in town.’

Officially, the U.S. now have boots on the ground to train the Somali National Army, systematically do away with the ever-mushrooming private security contractors, and pave the way for an AMISOM exist. Though the latter has done a great job in helping to stabilize Somalia, it has been on a downward trajectory with regard to public confidence and support by Somalis ever since Kenya and Ethiopia had joined its ranks. Ever since they joined AMISOM, al-Shabaab which was swept out of Mogadishu since 2011, made a comeback with belligerent vengeance. Among other violent operations, they attacked Villa Somalia where both the Somali President and Prime Minister work and live and the Parliament while in session.

What About The Ways of Old?

Does this mean the Obama Doctrine distinctively known for its ‘high-tech clandestine wars’ and better known as Drone Diplomacy is being domesticated in the Horn? Hardly!

The alarming trend in which the Obama administration has carried out at least “239 covert drone strikes, more than five times the 44 approved under George W. Bush,” as well as the (Dual) Multi-track policy in which the U.S. has dealt with all (save al-Shabaab) political actors of all shades would be retained as a safety net.

All eyes are on the FGS; how it may decipher the new policy and what actions it might take.

It has been sixteen months since, the then Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton answered a question regarding when might the Multi-track policy end by saying: “Today, we are taking a new step in our engagement….[we are] moving into a new era. I believe that our job now is to listen to the government and people of Somalia who are now in a position to tell us, as well as other partners around the world what their plans are, how they hope to achieve them. And, to leave no room for a doubt, she added “So, we’ve moved into a normal sovereign nation to sovereign nation position and we’ve moved into an era where we’re going to be good partner—a steadfast partner to Somalia, as Somalia makes the decision for its own future.”

Geo-politics and Geo-economy

The gist of the message to the Somali leadership was this: Yes, terrorism is a threat. Yes, we still plan to drone down bad guys. But, make no mistake; we do not make foreign policy based on manageable threats that emanate from self-destructive religious thugs and simpletons, and we certainly did not build a massive floating military base for whale-watching. If it was only about terrorism, we would’ve never left Iraq and Afghanistan, and we would’ve shielded the President who used to put on military gear and visit Somali soldiers in the front-lines.

No offense;  but, with China’s rapidly expanding influence in the African continent and Russia’s sudden strategic moves to lure us, along with our European friends, into an economic checkmate, we thought our latest policy move could be the game changer that both our countries direly need.

Reconciliation For Closure

Ambassador Sherman was correct in underscoring that “The truly defining test (for Somalia) would be an internal one.” Somalis, she said, “have to decide whether they want to exist as desperate clans isolated from the world and in conflict with one another or as a united country with all the attributes, benefits and responsibilities that such unity brings.”

“Somalis should know if they choose to continue to come together, they will have enthusiastic and substantial international support.

FGS should take this as a last call to save the Somali nation. The current leadership should let go their political bickering and immediately pave the way for a genuine reconciliation by appointing a non-controversial, credible traditional or religious patriot who could assemble and lead a diverse reconciliation commission.

While “security, governance and development” are indeed important objectives, they are practically impossible to achieve without genuine reconciliation, and without the political will to sideline our good neighbors. And the latter can only be done by suspending Somalia’s membership of IGAD.

The post American-Somali Relations: What Is In The Words? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

TransConflict is pleased to present a chapter of “Confronting the Yugoslav controversies – a scholars’ initiative”, entitled Ethnic cleansing and war crimes, 1991-1995″, which “aims at describing causes, features, and consequences of ethnic cleansing as a policy in Bosnia-Hercegovina during the war.”

By Marie-Janine Calic

Public perception has associated the Yugoslav wars of succession with all forms of ethnically inspired violence, from murder, rape and torture to mass expulsion. Many of these systematic violations of international humanitarian law occurred in the context of “ethnic cleansing” – a purposeful policy that “means rendering an area ethnically homogenous by using force or intimidation to remove from a given area persons from another ethnic or religious group.”[1] The violent break-up of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia resulted in the largest refugee crisis in Europe since the Second World War. In 1991, half a million people were displaced in Croatia. Between 1992 – 1995, over half of Bosnia- Herzegovina’s 4.4 million people were uprooted, including an estimated 1.3 million who were internally displaced, some 500,000 who were refugees in neighboring countries, and around. 700,000 who had fled to Western European countries.[2] As a result, many municipalities in that country have changed their ethnic structure substantially and, perhaps, permanently.

This report aims at describing causes, features and consequences of “ethnic cleansing” as a policy in Bosnia-Herzegovina during the war, which has posed substantial challenges to our research team. No other subject is so heavily charged with emotion, selective perception and partiality as mass crimes and the phenomenon of “ethnic cleansing”. Conflicting perspectives and controversies concern both the quality and quantity of violence, and there is an obvious tendency of politicization. For instance, the number of victims on either side continues to be a controversial subject; figures presented often appear inflated. Interpretations constantly evolve in light of the quickly expanding body of primary evidence and secondary literature about the Yugoslav wars of succession. It is therefore important to keep some key concerns in mind:

First, the attempt to conceptualize “ethnic cleansing” as a policy involves nearly all crucial controversial issues that have been debated since the break-up of Yugoslavia, such as the causes of the war, and the role and intentions of political leaders. These issues have been dealt with in-depth by other team reports of this project, and it appeared neither justified nor feasible to include differing accounts and competing interpretations of all these important aspects of the subject.

Second, systematic analysis of “ethnic cleansing” requires a certain selectivity of facts, since the report aims at recounting main developments in an exemplary and systematic way. Space limitations simply do not permit either a comprehensive narrative of events or of all the atrocities committed during the war.

Third, the reliability of sources has been crucial. Given the limited resources at our disposal, it has been impossible to conduct primary research into mass crimes. We have, therefore relied heavily on investigations of the ICTY, international institutions, and the rather finite research conducted by individual scholars, most of whom are closely associated with a particular viewpoint Although partisans of one side or another have questioned the impartiality of the ICTY, its investigative teams have conducted an enormous amount of research that meets high scholarly standards. Unfortunately, much of its work has not yet been made available to the community of scholars. We stress, therefore, that this report is part of a much longer process that cannot be deemed “final” in the absence of conclusive evidence.

Fourth, comparability and interpretation of events have given rise to dramatically different interpretations. There is still no consensus with regard to terminology, categorization and interpretation of the phenomenon of “ethnic cleansing”.[3] For instance, the question of whether “ethnic cleansing” should per se be equated with genocide is highly controversial. There is little understanding that, although diverse acts of violence may share the same features, such as mass expulsion and large-scale atrocities, the underlying motivation and intention of major actors may be totally diverse in each single case. This reports aims at providing careful analytical distinction, assuming that each set of events in which mass crimes occurred needs to be analyzed separately, but without precluding any possible interpretation from the outset.

Fifth, there has been an inherent, although often unintended, tendency to “measure” guilt and attribute it collectively to the parties involved. At the same time, all parties to the conflict perceive themselves as the real victims of the war, and believe that unjustices continue to go unaddressed. “Ethnic cleansing” and other crimes were evidently perpetrated by all parties in the conflict, and there were victims on all sides, although the gravity and dimension differed markedly, as the UN Commission of Experts has clearly stated.

At the beginning of the war, most of the violations were committed by Serb forces against Bosniacs, and, to a lesser extent, Croats, as the result of a highly developed policy of “ethnic cleansing”. Also, Croat forces conducted “ethnic cleansing” campaigns against Serbs in eastern and western Slavonia and in the Krajina region of Croatia, as well as against Bosniacs in Mostar and central Bosnia. Bosniac forces have victimized Serbs in Bosnia-Herzegovina, but in lesser numbers, with foreful population removal occuring only in limited areas.[4] Later, there were more massive campaigns against Serbs as well, especially in 1995, when a large number of the Croatian Serbs fled their home territory. During 1992-1995, Roma were also subjected to “ethnic cleansing” by Serb, Croat and Bosnian Muslim forces. Against this background, there are also conflicting positions concerning “moral equivalence”: Do all parties to the conflict really bear equal responsibility? Did all sides suffer equally in the war, and is there a (perceived) hierarchy among the victims? The community of analysts is divided among those who take an explicit moralist attitude and those who do not. This has resulted in unscholarly polemics against alternative approaches. Hopefully, the ICTY´s work of creating an objective record of events, and establishing individual blame instead of collective guilt, will effect a consensus in the interpretation of events in the future. Until then, this report will avoid making summary judgments about individual perpetrators or the belligerents themselves in the absence of conclusive evidence. Instead, it will try to conceptualize the phenomenon of “ethnic cleansing” as a policy by analyzing its aims, mechanisms, and consequences, while recapitulating the main controversies surrounding it.

In light of the aforementioned challenges, this reports undertakes the following: First, it discusses meaning and content of the term “ethnic cleansing”. Second, it gives a narrative of key events and analyzes main features of “ethnic cleansing” as a policy. Third, it presents two of the most contentious issues: the number of victims and possible distinctions between the terms “ethnic cleansing” and “genocide”.

The analysis is based on various sources: a) a review of the literature and recent studies on the phenomenon of “ethnic cleansing”; b) analysis of case material produced by the ICTY and other international institutions; c) specific research by team members, in particular the Research and Documentation Center in Sarajevo [5], and witness statements collected by the Institute for Recent History of Serbia in Belgrade.

‘Ethnic cleansing and war crimes, 1991-1995′ is a component of the larger Scholars’ Initiative ‘Confronting Yugoslav Controversies’ (Second Edition), extracts of which will be published on TransConflict.com every Friday.

Footnotes

1) Final Report of the Commission of Experts established pursuant to SCR 790 (1992), S/1994/674, 27 May 1994, Annex IV, p. 5.

2) Norwegian Refugee Council/Global IDP Project: Profile of Internal Displacement: Bosnia and Herzegovina. compilation of the information available in the Global IDP Database of the Norwegian Refugee Council (as of 24 March, 2005), p. 13.

3) Andrew Bell-Fialkoff, Ethnic Cleansing (New York, 1996); Norman M. Naimark, Fires of Hatred: Ethnic Cleansing in Twentieth Century Europe (Cambridge, 2001); Drazen Petrović, “Ethnic Cleansing – An Attempt at Methodology, in European Journal of International Law, 5:3 (1994), 1-19. Cathie Carmichael, Ethnic Cleansing in the Balkans. Nationalism and the Destruction of Tradition (London/New York, 2002); Philipp Ther, “A Century of Forced Migration: The Origins and Consequences of ’Ethnic Cleansing’,” in Redrawing Nations. Ethnic Cleansing in East-Central Europe, 1944-1948, idem and Ana Siljak, eds (Lanham/Boulder/New York/Oxford, 2001), 43-72; Anna Simons: “Making sense of Ethnic Cleansing,” in Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 22 (January-March 1999) 1: 1-20.

4) Final Report of the Commission of Experts Established Pursuant to SCR 790 (1992), S/1994/674, 27 May 1994, Annex IV, p. 5 and 21.

5) The RDC is a non-governmental organization registered on the state level in BiH, formed in April 2004. It is the successor organization to the State Commission for Gathering Facts about War Crimes, which was established by the Presidency of BiH in April 1992.

The post Ethnic Cleansing And War Crimes, 1991-1995 appeared first on Eurasia Review.

When three teenage Israeli settlers from the illegal Jewish settlement of Gush Etzion went missing on 12 June, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saw an opportunity to discredit the fledgling Palestinian unity government.

His statements and the actions of the Israeli army since have centered on indicting the Palestinian movement Hamas, while also holding the Palestinian Authority of Mahmoud Abbas responsible for the safety of the settlers.

But is there a link between the newly formed Palestinian unity government and the safety of illegal settlers in the West Bank? According to Netanyahu there is.

Scores of Palestinians have been rounded up by the Israeli army since the disappearances in what could be considered a mass arrest campaign, mostly in the Hebron region. Many of those arrested were Hamas members, including senior figures in the movement.

“Those who carried out the kidnapping of our youngsters are Hamas people,” Netanyahu insisted at a cabinet meeting on Sunday.

Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri has since described the statements by Netanyahu as “silly”. He added that targeting Hamas figures through arrests was “aimed at breaking the will of the Hamas movement in the West Bank”.

Israeli officials were quick to link the disappearance of the settlers – the 16-year-olds Naftali Frenkel and Gilad Shaar and the 19-year-old Eyal Yifrach – to the newly-formed unity government.

A day after the three went missing, US Secretary of State John Kerry phoned Netanyahu to express his government’s concern. According to the daily Jerusalem Post, he also contacted PA President Mahmoud Abbas with the same message.

The PA is reportedly cooperating. “The Israelis and the Palestinian Authority are working closely together on efforts to find the three teenagers and to hopefully bring a quick resolution to the matter,” a Washington official told the post.

No concerns were offered the regarding hundreds of Palestinian children and teenagers in Israeli jails. For some reason, both issues are treated as entirely different subjects.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu is capitalizing on the story in every way he can. In his call with Kerry, he claimed that the alleged kidnappings were “the destructive result” of the newly formed PA unity government.

Since PA Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah announced a transitional government as a first step towards reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah, Netanyahu along with other Israeli officials have been working hard to thwart its mission.

Netanyahu is insisting that the unity government must be dissolved and the unity pact with Hamas dismissed if he is ever to return to the negotiations table. But what talks is he referring to?

US-backed peace talks failed this year to take a step forward because Netanyahu carried on seizing Palestinian land and expanding settlements. He didn’t even fulfil the largely symbolic promise of releasing a few Palestinian political prisoners – something which would have allowed Abbas to save face and carry on with the talks.

Abbas on 12 June dropped the condition of an Israeli settlement freeze, and was ready to settle with the release of some long-serving prisoners, yet Netanyahu still found this unacceptable.

In a statement two days later to Israel Radio, Netanyahu described the gesture as “meaningless”.

Abbas’ moves reflect how difficult his position remains since his Fatah party and Hamas reached an agreement in the Shati’ refugee camp in April, which led to the formation of a transitional government in June.

The agreement left many points of contention to be discussed and settled by various sub-committees with uncertain chances of success. Since then, disagreements have flared over crackdowns on Hamas supporters in the West Bank, unpaid salaries and other matters.

But this is only part of Abbas’ dilemma. His security forces are allowed to currently operate in the West Bank – but only under the watchful eye of the Israeli army.

In return for allowing the PA a space for its operation, PA forces need to be involved in “security coordination” aimed at securing illegal Jewish settlements, reining in Palestinian groups and offering a line of defense for the Israeli army, which in reality is the one and only ruler of the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

Unity or no unity, Netanyahu’s expectations are unchanged: “I expect you to help in the return of the kidnapped youths and the capture of the kidnappers,” Netanyahu told Abbas in a telephone interview on June 16.

If these are indeed kidnappings, they could have been carried out other groups. But Israel’s targeting of Hamas can only be politically motivated.

Netanyahu certainly benefits from tension between the Hamas and Fatah movements, and anything that threatens a collapse of the unity government. Hamas had already criticized Abbas for cooperating with Israel.

The longer it takes to find the settlers, the more political leverage Netanyahu will have. “The Hamas kidnappers went out from territory controlled by the Palestinian Authority and returned to territory controlled by the Palestinian Authority,” according to Netanyahu, in an carefully worded indictment of both Hamas and the PA.

Netanyahu is even mulling over the deportation of Hamas members outside the West Bank, a dangerous option that could complicate relations between Palestinian factions and drive many Hamas members underground.

For Israel, all of this is creating the necessary distraction needed to ensure the downfall of the unity government, and the postponement of any discussion pertaining to the return to peace talks. For Netanyahu, it is a win-win situation.

Abbas however is bound by his “commitment” to Israel’s security, a condition through which he continues to receive support from the US government. Recently, he even went as far as describing collaboration with the Israeli army as sacred.

Even chief negotiator Saeb Erekat, himself discredited by many Palestinians because of his central role in the Palestine Papers scandal, is attacking Abbas for his failure to take any action at all. In a leaked recording, he refers to Abbas as “discredited” and “useless”.

He derides Abbas’ ‘commitment’ to Israel. “What commitment have you made? This isn’t your daddy’s farm! This is a nation, this is Palestine. This is bigger than individuals. He didn’t listen to me. I swear, I submitted my resignation twice,” a voice attributed to Erekat said.

Under these difficult circumstances, it is not easy to imagine the attainment of real unity. Meanwhile, Netanyahu will continue to push with all of his might to guarantee Palestinian failure.

The fact that Netanyahu would go as far as blaming a government of Palestinian technocrats operating under Israeli military occupation for failing to protect illegal Jewish settlers is a testament to the conceit of the Israeli government.

Regardless of the circumstances behind the disappearance of the Jewish settlers, this highlights Netanyahu’s determination to ensure the collapse of the Palestinian unity government at all costs. Yet considering the many options at his disposal, he might well succeed.

The post Missing Settlers Become Weapons In A War On Unity – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.