The DDR roadmap that is expected to take shape by October will be the result of a tough negotiation process that will need to address the thorny issues of democratic autonomy, general amnesty and education in mother tongue. Yet one wonders how long the peace process will sustain its momentum if the parties continue to delay taking the necessary steps.

By Dr. Ulas Doga Eralp

This is the last piece of a three-part series where I analyze the sustainability of the Kurdish peace process in Turkey. In the previous articles I argued that Turkey’s Kurdish peace process lacked transparency, inclusiveness and that the negotiating parties had issues of mistrust toward each other and even among their own constituencies. The framework law that has recently received parliamentary approval provides legal immunity to the on-going top-secret negotiations between the Turkish Intelligence Service, MIT (Milli İstihbarat Teşkilatı),  and the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan.  The secrecy and exclusiveness of the negotiations has so far made the peace process susceptible to manipulation by different factions.

The newly-legislated framework law promises to bring clarity to the process which could tame anxieties.  The law mentions possible reforms in the political, legal, socio-economic, psychological and cultural spheres, whilst strengthening the human rights regime, improving overall security and facilitating the disarmament process. This last article looks into the content of the peace process. Given the utmost secrecy, this analysis is built primarily on stipulations driven from public statements.

Mismatch of steps

Turkish government views the peace process in three steps – the first phase is the cessation of all violence, the second phase is the relocation of all active PKK fighters from Turkish soil and the third and final phase is disarmament. Officials already cite progress in the second phase, with a higher number of PKK guerrillas moving out of Turkey, and are preparing the ground for the third phase.

The PKK leaders at the guerrilla headquarters in the Qandil Mountain in Northern Iraq, on the other hand, brag about the recent surge in the number of young people recruited to the military wing of the PKK in Turkey. The growing radicalization of the Kurdish youth is a response to on-going violence against the Kurdish political entities in Syria and Iraq. Many young recruits use Turkish territory to cross the border to fight against ISIS. The PKK leadership further denies allegations that it will move its militants from Turkey any time soon. In the absence of an unconditional general amnesty law, PKK refuses to remove and disarm its militants.

General amnesty for the PKK guerrillas

The Turkish Government argues that a general amnesty should be negotiated as a final step once the removal and disarmament of PKK guerrillas is complete. There is also a major disagreement between the government and the Kurdish side about who should be considered eligible for an amnesty among PKK militants. Turkey already has a law on repentance through which PKK militants who had not participated in any violent acts receive amnesty. PKK demands an unconditional general amnesty to all PKK militants, including the PKK leader, Abdullah Ocalan.  The Turkish government sees this as a great risk, fearing a possible nationalist backlash that could jeopardize the whole peace process.  The Kurdish movement invested a lot of political capital on the release of Ocalan from his island prison, hence any proposal short of that will be a non-starter.  The Turkish government is currently exploring alternative options, such as the transfer of Ocalan to ahome prison or allowing more direct access to Ocalan’s prison island.

Political reforms – democratic autonomy

Following the launch of peace negotiations, the BDP, PKK, KCK and HDP started emphasizing the importance of local autonomy and the formation of direct democratic structures and processes. The Republic of Turkey maintains a French-inspired system of centrally-appointed governorship. Governors have the civilian authority over elected officials. Kurds demand that all decisions regarding education policies, infrastructure projects and security be made at the local level. The Kurdish political party, BDP, has introduced its own draft constitution text in March 2013, where regional legislative assemblies are proposed as the appropriate bodies that would pass laws on taxation, distribution of social services.

The drafting of a new constitution will be the most important step in political reforms. Turkey’s current constitution was drafted by the junta in 1982 and had several amendments since.  The imprisoned PKK leader, Ocalan, sees the drafting of a new constitution as essential for a new social contract between Turkey’s Kurds and the Turkish state.  The Kurds would like to see an official mention of Kurds as one of the constituent nations of the Republic of Turkey in the new preamble, along with recognition of Kurdish as an official language. The Erdogan Government on the other hand refuses to introduce ethnic references to the text of the draft constitution.  The BDP’s constitution proposal tasks the regional assemblies with the decision on the number of official languages in different parts of Turkey.

Right to education in mother tongue

One critical issue that has always been on the forefront of the Kurdish demands is the right to receive education in their mother tongue. Turkey currently allows for the setting-up of private language institutes and selective courses in the Kurdish language at universities. So far, however, there has been resistance to allowing for a complete right to education in the mother tongue for Kurdish children in Turkey. The democratization package announced in September 2013 already allows for private schools to offer elective courses in the mother tongue, along with mandatory Turkish classes. The same package removed the pledge of national allegiance to the Turkish nation for all children. The Kurdish political party, BDP, called these steps insincere and half-cooked, failing to meet the condition of right to education in mother tongue.

Conclusion

The DDR roadmap that is expected to take shape by October will be the result of a tough negotiation process that will need to address the thorny issues of democratic autonomy, general amnesty and education in mother tongue. The Turkish Government claims that it is ready to speed up the process once the presidential elections are complete. Yet one wonders how long the peace process will sustain its momentum if the parties continue to delay taking the necessary steps.

Dr. Ulas Doga Eralp is a scholar and practitioner of international conflict, human rights, development and democratization. He has a PhD from the School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution from George Mason University, and currently works as a Professorial Lecturer at the International Peace and Conflict Resolution Program of the School of International Service (SIS) at American University in Washington, DC.

The post Turkey’s Kurdish Peace Process – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Shares in some of Russian food producers have added almost 40 percent by midday on Friday. The surge comes a day after Moscow imposed a one-year ban on imports of food products from the West.

Shares in one of Russia’s biggest agricultural holdings Razgulay shot up 39.87 percent by Friday afternoon, according to Moscow Stock Exchange data.

Stocks in the Russian Sea fish and Seafood producer surged 34.85 percent, GlavTorgProduct stocks also rose 35 percent.

Meat manufacturer Cherkizovo saw an 8.25 percent rise, the Ostankino meat processing plant had an 18.5 percent boost.

This increase has far outpaced the overall dynamics of Russia’s key indices, the RTS and MICEX, which were up 0.92 percent and 0.38 percent respectively.

On Thursday Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev signed a decree banning all imports of beef, pork, poultry meat, fish, cheese, milk, vegetables and fruit from Australia, Canada, the EU, the US and Norway.

READ MORE: Russia bans agricultural products from EU, USA, Australia, Norway, Canada

Russian farmers were mostly inspired by the decision, calling it a unique and historic opportunity to develop domestic production.

The value of Russian agricultural product production could grow by about $10.8 billion in the next 18 months, Agriculture Minister Nikolay Fyodorov, told ITAR–TASS on Friday.

By contrast, Western farmers have already started ringing alarm bells saying the ban would cost an estimated $16 billion, and warning of a possible crisis situation.

The post Stocks In Russian Food Companies Soar Amid Western Food Ban appeared first on Eurasia Review.

urkish National Defense Minister Ismet Yilmaz has said Turkey did not provide any support to the U.S. air strikes in Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) sites in northern Iraq, Hurriyet Daily News reported.

“The U.S. is using all its resources to bomb ISIL sites that it sees as a threat to its interests,” Yilmaz said in a speech in the eastern Turkish province of Sivas on August 9.

Reminding that ISIL still keeps 49 staff of Turkey’s Mosul consulate as captives, Yilmaz added:”Therefore, because of our responsibility of them, it is not possible for us to do anything different to what we are currently doing. Those who say differently probably don’t care about those 49 kidnapped people.”

The Turkish nationals, including consulate staff and their families were captured by fighters linked to ISIL, in Mosul on June 11. The Turkish government has imposed a news blackout on the hostage situation, claiming that media reports could threaten the captives’ lives.

A group of 32 Turkish truck drivers were freed from ISIL captivity last month, returning home to a media fanfare on July 3.

The U.S. has conducted two waves of air attacks on insurgent artillery positions near Arbil, the capital of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region.

The post Turkey ‘Not Involved In US Air Strikes’ In Iraq appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Monia Ghanmi

With the continued influx of refugees from Libya, Tunisia fears its already battered economy will not be able to withstand the extra burden.

The flood of Libyan refugees could lead to a 10% increase in the subsidy bill, Tunisian government spokesperson Nidhal Ouerfelli warned on Saturday (August 2nd), adding that the current economy could not cope with the additional expense.

To escape the security chaos, tens of thousands of Libyan nationals and the country’s foreign workers have recently fled across the border to Tunisia. This is on top of the estimated two million Libyans living in Tunisia since 2011.

Economist Moez Joudi confirmed that foreign trade and the subsidy fund would incur enormous losses. Tunisians would have to share government-subsidised foods and hydrocarbons with the Libyan refugees.

The cost of the subsidy fund reached 6 billion dinars in 2014, a half-billion more than the year before, Joudi noted.

The spike in foreigners fleeing Libya would impact the fund, especially for hydrocarbons, which account for 70% of subsidy costs, he said.

Petrol stations have seen a spike in demand. There is also high demand for consumer goods, leading to shortages in some commodities, especially milk and bottled water.

Tunisian Foreign Minister Mongi Hamdi said last week that the economic situation in the country was not suitable to receiving more of those fleeing the armed confrontations in Libya.

The Central Bank of Tunisia on Tuesday also expressed concern over the potential effect of the Libya crisis on the country’s economy.

Economics professor Abdeljelil Badri confirmed that the unrest in Libya would affect trade with Tunisia. All transactions would stop because they are mostly done by land, he said.

“This poses a direct threat to the future of hundreds of Tunisian companies, which have direct dealings with the Libyan market,” he told Magharebia.

It also aggravates Tunisia’s unemployment problem, since more than 100,000 of its citizens were working in Libya, Badri noted.

One of the biggest companies affected by the violence in Libya is Tunisair.

Libya is the largest market for the Tunisian national carrier. The airline offers more than 60 flights a week to different Libyan airports.

To alleviate the economic fallout of the Libya crisis, Tunisia has presented itself to refugees as a transit point, rather than a permanent destination.

Tunisia has not set up camps for refugees from Libya, as it did during the revolution against Moamer Kadhafi.

The post Tunisia Pays Price For Libya Unrest appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The sickness of present-day Israel, on display over the past horrible month of the one-sided slaughter of nearly 2000 Palestinians (including over 400 children) in the fenced-in ghetto of Gaza, has finally reached its nadir with the ugly case of the deliberate Israeli Defense Force murder of captured IDF 2nd Lt. Hadar Goldin.

According to an article in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, once it was determined that Goldin had been captured by Hamas fighters in the Gaza town of Rafah, the IDF initiated what it calls the “Hannibal Protocol” — the deliberate liquidation of the captive — to prevent his being used as a hostage to win concessions from Israel in future truce negotiations with the Palestinians. One reason for the almost instantaneous and ruthless Israeli decision to kill Goldin rather than attempt to rescue him, is that this captured soldier had the misfortune of being related to Israel’s defense minister, Moshe Yaalon, making him a valuable prize indeed for Hamas.

And so began a massive bombardment of the entire residential area where Goldin was captured.

As Haaretz reports in an editorial [1] about this case of deliberate sacrifice of an IDF officer, headlined “What Happened in Rafah?”, the ensuing high-explosive blitz on the area didn’t just kill Goldin, but also indiscriminately killed over 150 Palestinians, most of them civilians, including many women and children. Indeed, the paper states that the IDF “…shelled and bombed houses and their inhabitants indiscriminately, and as they tried to flee homes, hit them with shells and bombs in the streets.” The fatal bombing of a targeted UN-operated school in Rafah, which was condemned by the US government and by UN General Secretary Ban Ki-Moon, who called it a “criminal act and a moral outrage,” was part of that Hannibal Protocol action.

Now recall that President Obama was quick to label the Hamas capture of Goldin “barbaric.”

The trouble is, having rather absurdly deployed that term to characterize the capture by Hamas fighters of an Israeli soldier who was at the time reportedly exploring a tunnel and trying to capture or kill enemy fighters, though, what then does Obama — what indeed does any person — call the indiscriminate slaughter of 150 civilians in the interest of eliminating one of one’s own captured soldier?

The post The IDF’s ‘Hannibal Protocol’ And Two Criminally Insane Governments – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Elise Harris

A priest hailing from what used to be Iraq’s largest Christian city has lamented the exodus of over 100,000 Christians from the city, many of whom are fleeing on foot with no food, money or water.

“Today the story of Christianity is finished in Iraq,” said a priest who identified himself as Fr. Nawar.

“People can’t stay in Iraq because there is death for whoever stays,” told CNA Aug. 8.

A priest who has been living and studying in Rome for the last three years, Fr. Nawar is originally from the Iraqi city of Qaraqosh (Bakhdida) on the plains of Nineveh, which was considered the Christian capital of the country until the Kurdish military forces known as the Peshmerga withdrew from it.

The city then fell to forces of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant – known as ISIS – on Wednesday night. Since then more than 100,000 Christians have fled the city, many taking with them nothing but the clothes on their backs.

According to reports from BBC News, the Islamic State militants have taken down crosses and burned religious manuscripts.

“It’s a very difficult life,” Fr. Nawar said, “very, very difficult.”

Noting how there are many families now “who are dying because of the temperatures, dying because they can’t eat, dying because of fear, and also because of war, of bombs,” the priest emphasized the importance of giving “a voice to all of these sick people.”

“Christian people need peace in order to live. They don’t live from war. They don’t need people, or even the president, no, they need peace to live. This is important.”

Qaraqosh is about 19 miles southeast of Mosul, which Islamic State forces captured in June, giving an ultimatum to Christians and other minorities demanding that they convert, pay the jizya tax or be killed.

Speaking of Wednesday’s attack on Qaraqosh, Fr. Nawar expressed his gratitude and relief that his family escaped beforehand and is currently safe in the northern city of Armota, about an hour and a half from Qaraqosh by car.

“My family is well because they are rich, they can rent a house,” he said, “But other families, poor, where do they go? There isn’t money.”

It can cost up to 2-3,000 dollars to rent a house in Iraq, the priest explained, and often in the house, “there is no food, there is no oven, there is nothing.”

“There are so many families who can’t eat, they can’t get bread,” he lamented.

Of all the families currently fleeing to Kurdistan, about 70 percent of them are staying in Ankawa, Irbil and other Christian cities in the area, Fr. Nawar said.

“Today many families are in Ankawa, more or less 200,000 people. But it’s difficult. All these people right now are sleeping on the street, in the garden, in the car. There aren’t any available spaces.”

The priest recalled a phone conversation he had with his brother after his family left Qaraqosh, using one of their family’s two cars to help another family escape.

“My family has two cars. When they escaped, there were many people who didn’t have a car, and my brother helped a family with his car. He took them in his car and they escaped with my brother.”

However, “there are many people escaping on foot,” he said. “There are no cars and there is no money. There is not mercy today in this life.”

“When ISIS arrives, the Christians must change religion or escape. There is no other option. Change religions, become Muslim, and those who don’t convert leave.”

Rafal Cordova, an Iraqi woman originally from city of Alqush, roughly an hour from Qaraqosh, spoke with told CNA Aug. 8. She said it is the first time in history that “people are leaving Alqush.”

Cordova, who has been living in the U.S. for several years, explained that yesterday evening, “people started going into the street asking for help.” While citizens from the nearby city of Dhouk helped them, “a lot of them were sleeping in the street.”

She added that many of the Iraqis she knows in the United States are “happy that the U.S. is helping and sending airstrikes.”

The Obama administration announced late Thursday night that it had authorized “targeted airstrikes” to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe and defend U.S. military advisors in the Iraqi capital of Irbil. It is also airdropping humanitarian aid to a Yazidi group trapped in the mountains of Sinjar without access to food or water.

In addition, Pope Francis has appointed Cardinal Fernando Filoni as his personal envoy to Iraq. Cordova said she is “glad and pleased to hear of the appointment,” adding that she recently spoke to her family members, who are also happy to hear of the news.

“Now they feel that the Christians in Iraq are not alone,” she said.

The post ‘Christianity Is Finished In Iraq’ Says Priest From Nineveh appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Louisa A. Lamb

Despite the on-again, off-again ceasefires between the Palestinian Resistance and Israel, attacks in Gaza have continued. According to 8/10/14 announcement from Tel Aviv, they will continue, doubtlessly as ruthless as ever. After Israel launched the first attack on July 7th, tension continues as an omnipresent essence whirling about the winds of the greatly sought-after Holy land. Bombarded by airstrikes, shelling and bombs, civilians of the Gaza strip are incarcerated in what seems to be a never-ending battle with no escape. Recent reports from numerous sources and journalists describe the weight of the devastation Palestinians have endured in Gaza.

Within the last ten years, Israel has provoked three offensive movements against the Palestinian territory in Gaza: Operation Cast Lead, which began at the end of 2008 and 2009, Operation Pillar of Defense, which last eight days in November 2012, and most recently, Operation Protective Edge, which started on July 7th, 2014. During this period of devastation, homes have been obliterated, nearly two thousands civilians have been killed, and humanitarian resources are extremely limited due to the Israeli blockade. Catastrophic damage has already been done, some irreparable and some of the most important consequences are often overlooked.

According to Dr. Jesse Ghannam, a clinical psychologist working for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, reported that the rate of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder among children has doubled since the 2012 Operation Pillar of Defense attack. These children will most likely suffer from mood disorders, anxiety, depression, problems with attachment and develop antisocial personality traits. Children of Gaza who are nine years old have spent whole lives experiencing the terror of ruthless violence.

The UN relief and works agency reported that approximately 270,000 Gazans are taking UN schools as shelters. The organization also calculates that more than 350,000 children need mental health services because of severe and persisting psychological trauma. How can children cope when they witness the loss of their homes and their entire families from a single explosion? These children are witnessing their mothers, fathers, sisters and brothers, friends and neighbors being blown apart with no understanding of why.

Many Gazan children who have survived view life as an inescapable war. There are many psychological principles to consider when assessing the future of these children, psychosocial development being a prominent one. The UN’s Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization recently stated that about 75% of teachers at primary and secondary levels reported a decline in their students’ academic performance since Operation Pillar of Defense in 2012. Furthermore, Operation Protective Edge has damaged 138 schools, including 89 run by the UNRWA.

IRIN, a UN Humanitarian news and information service, reported that the lack of locations to attend school and lack of education resources leaves students having to wait, prolonging their education with no guarantee of returning. Erica Silverman reported from the 2008-2009 attack that due to the trauma of these children and lack of psychological counseling resources, many are hesitant and anxious about even going to school. Six years later, with two more perennial offenses, these children of Gaza are overwrought. Iyad Zaqut, a psychiatrist managing the UN community mental health programs in the Gaza strip, reports fewer than 100 specialist teachers are treating more than 100,000 children.

The lack of schools, teachers, and school supplies make education for these children a fallacy. In addition to the scarcity of academic availability, many of these schools do not offer mental health services because of the abundance of children suffering from psychological trauma and limited mental health providers. As a result, these children are in dire need of aid which is unattainable. It’s important to consider Maslow’s hierarchy of needs when thinking about these children. These kids do not even have their basic safety and physiological needs met, which are basic human rights which many take for granted. They have nothing but memories of explosions and imprinted images of violence in their minds.

They live in a world they cannot change, that is cruel and violent. Their only solace is uttering the words “Inch’Allah” as they hide with their families and try to avoid the destruction surrounding them. Many of them don’t. Thousands of Palestinians are restricted from leaving Gaza Strip and are confined, condemned by the Israeli agenda with their fate already determined. How can children conceptualize this, what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamen Netanyahu has described as “complicated” yet “justified”?

Children are unable to understand the nature of this ongoing destruction. The children who have witnessed all three of the Israeli offenses are old enough to have reached Concrete Operations of Piaget’s Theory of Cognitive Development. Even so, how can they begin to conceptualize such oppression being justifiable? They don’t. Instead, these children, who are completely traumatized, are taught that survival is retaliating against these forces. The innate human compassion that every single human is born with is drowned with the blood of their people, leaving these children as empty shells, with their only hope to survival becoming filled with hatred and violence to join an extremist organization, where they will become like their oppressors—ruthlessly inhuman and unaffected by bloodshed.

In addition to the trauma they experience from witnessing these horrors themselves, family tensions contribute to their psychological issues. It’s difficult for children to feel safe when their parents, older relatives and other adults are stressed. Children need reassurance from adults and a healthy and supportive environment. Their parents are also suffering and face their own worries, so these children of Gaza cannot even retrieve comfort from their family.

The children of Gaza, who may initially be socially withdrawn and reclusive, quiet yet scarred and suffering, are at grave risk of growing into killing machines with nothing but bitter resentment for Israel. The attacks on children in Gaza are only fueling the ongoing violence, because for these children the only option is to avenge their dead family members, their homes, their schools, and their lack of human resources. Essentially, these kids have never known a proper society and will undoubtedly return to a very barbaric nature because that is their only means of survival.

These children are unable to have normal lives and development—besides the psychological trauma and lack of resources—because their identity is not fostered in a normal, healthy way. One of the most notable theories of development comes from Erik Erikson, who developed the 8 stages of psychosocial development. The nine-year old survivors of the Israeli offenses in Gaza, for instance, would be in Erikson’s stage of Industry vs. Inferiority. This is a crucial stage of human development, but these children will not be able to surpass this stage and continue to develop in a healthy manner. The Industry, which we can compare to the Israeli militant forces, dominate over the Palestinians. The children of Gaza who have lost everything—while never really having anything—are robbed of their dignity and the right to a stable life and identity of self.

The Palestinian suffering and Israeli-Palestinian conflict is nothing new. This problem has been raging on, but it is important to ease the suffering of these children and provide resources to help them and help the world. There is a way to stop the cycle, with humanitarian efforts and discussion about what needs to be done. These children are innocent, and yet they are subjected to so much. It is a moral responsibility of the international community to provide assistance to alleviate the strife of these children and rebuild what is left of the home of the Palestinian people.

Louisa Lamb is an independent researcher and journalist reporting on the underclass and marginalized. She can be reached c/o louisaalamb@gmail.com

The post The Psychological Trauma Of Catastrophe: Gaza’s Children – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Alessandra Colarizi

On July 4, Beijing hosted the dress rehearsal for the Fourth ministerial meeting of the “Istanbul Process”, a regional platform created in 2011 to encourage cooperation between Afghanistan and some of its neighbors, namely China, Russia, Kazakhstan, India, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and more, but that also sees the participation of extra-regional countries (with important names such as USA and UK) and international entities acting as “supporting-partners”.

Waiting for the real meeting to take place in the port city of Tianjin at the end of August, the hottest topic at the latest gathering was the difficult political transition of Afghanistan, which after the elections in April, the second ballot in June and the alleged electoral frauds, will have to wait until the new vote count to know the name of its new president. In the meantime, half of 2014, the last year marked by a massive US troops presence on the national soil, has already gone by. By the end of December the number of American armed forces should decrease to less than 15,000 units. This perspective concerns Beijing, for whom the stability in Central Asia is of primary importance, both for business and for national security matters. The new Great Game has increasingly less the characteristics of an intense match of risk and is starting to look more like a community of interests among superpowers to keep the region from sinking into chaos.

How much the PRC cares about the Afghan stability is proved by the decision to appoint a special envoy for Afghanistan. Sun Yuxi, a Chinese diplomat with ambassadorial experience in Afghanistan  and India, will help “ensure lasting peace, stability and development for Afghanistan and the region,” PRC’s Foreign Ministry said. This is the latest diplomatic move after a series of high-profile meetings: the outgoing leader Hamid Karzai and Chinese President Xi Jinping met during a CICA (Confidence Building Measure in Asia) summit dedicated to peace in Asia and hosted in May by Beijing that is increasingly becoming a crossroads of geopolitical interests.

Only three months earlier the Chinese Foreign Affair Minister Wang Yi visited Kabul during his Middle-East tour. Both times the stability of the country was the hot topic of the meetings, with the Chinese government, although underlining that the country’s stability must be kept by the Afghan people with their own means, nonetheless proclaiming to be willing to “play a constructive role” to favor the political reconciliation in Afghanistan. Translated from the cautious diplomacy language: PRC will not become the region’s new enforcer, taking Washington’s place, but it’s more more likely to aim for a cautious collaboration.

According to the experts, while the Pacific is still a reason for friction between China and United States, the “Heart of Asia” is becoming the arena for an alignment of the Chinese and American positions in the region. “The Chinese are very much aware that we are now on the same page in Afghanistan,” explained to “The Guardian” an American diplomat on the sidelines of a meeting between Chinese officials and Af-Pak experts, held in Beijing last March

Up until five years ago, Afghanistan was regarded as an El Dorado for its raw materials and hydrocarbons: crude oil, gas, copper, steel, gold and lithium, main nutrients for the energy-consuming economy of PRC. Even though still incomparable to energy giants like Turkmenistan (for gas), Iran and Uzbekistan (for crude oil), it is estimated that Afghanistan produces 22 barrels of black gold per capita, in line with neighboring Pakistan, and is rich in precious minerals, known as rare earth elements, much needed for the high-tech industry.

In 2011, the China National Petroleum Corporation signed a deal for 700 million dollars, with the target of operating in the three oil-rich basins of the Amu Darya, while three years earlier the Chinese Metallurgical Group and the Jiangxi Copper Co. earned a contract for the exclusive mining right in the site of Mes Aynak, in the Logar province, worth 3 billion dollars.

At that time, the range of the deal seemed to justify the costs, it is thought that the one in Mes Anyak is the world’s biggest copper deposit. However, following the Chinese economic growth’s slow down, the decreased stability in the country and the drop in copper’s value, last spring Beijing announced the desire to adjust the terms of the agreement, endangering the plans that Kabul has to use its resources to relaunch the country’s development — confirming how Afghanistan is slowly becoming more a security issue than an economic opportunity for the Asian giant. After three Chinese residents were killed in Kabul and two more kidnapped, in August 2013, for many entrepreneurs the wisest choice was to pack and retreat behind the Great Wall.

The turning point came in 2012, when Zhou Yongkang, back then tsar of the Chinese security — currently investigated for “serious disciplinary violation” — headed to Kabul, the highest level figure to visit the country since 1966. That occasion signed the beginning of a cooperation with Karzai’s regime aiming at training 300 Afghan police officers, followed by a Sino-American agreement for the professional training of diplomats, health workers and agrarian specialists. For the first time Beijing proved its goodwill in engaging in a collaboration with a third country on foreign land, commented to “The Guardian” William Darymple, historian and author of books about traveling in Central Asia. Three are the meetings held every year by ambassador James Dobbins, special representative of Obama in Afghanistan, and the Chinese counterpart to discuss the future of the region; demonstrating a progressive alignment of the interests of the two world super powers, at least concerning the Central Asian area.

More than once the Chinese mining activities in Logar have fallen victim to the Talibans’ attacks, whose origin is traced back to Pakistan. For a long time Kabul and Islamabad have accused each other of protecting insurrectionist groups. And according to the American intelligence, al-Qaeda’s leadership after the US’ military intervention in 2001 moved its headquarters to Pakistan, is already preparing its coming back to Afghanistan. According to sources from the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, about 1,000 Chinese Jihadists are already being trained, waiting to contribute to the civil war that has been shedding blood in Syria for the past two years.

Beijing is starting to suspect that Islamabad is not entirely committed to the war on terrorism, a phenomenon that China perceives as a real threat since when violence strikes — officially attributed to the Muslim Uyghur minority — it has the possibility to cross the border in the remote Western region of Xinjiang (sharing borders with both Pakistan and Afghanistan), climaxing into an attack to the political heart of the PRC: Tian’anmen Square. It’s well known how soldiers coming from Xinjiang have joined the battlefield in the area near the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan: in December 2001, Uyghur Jihadists were among the first to die under the American bombings following 9/11 over the mountains of Tora Bora.

According to the experts today, Uyghurs are training a little more in the East, in the North Waziristan, Northern Pakistan, although international organizations are more cautious in quantifying the Uyghur presence in Central Asia, the Chinese government linked them to the ETIM (East Turkestan Islamic Movement), an organization that the United States removed from their blacklist a few years ago.

The inefficiency of the measures adopted by Kabul against the militants has an heavy influence on the relations with China, but analysts don’t rule out that the proximity of China to both Pakistan and Afghanistan might facilitate a reconciliation between the two parts. Still, for this to happen “ It will need to be accompanied by demonstrable and substantial changes in practice: these could be institutional mechanisms and/or economic integration” said Richard Ghiasy, research fellow at the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies (AISS) in Kabul.

“Beijing is certainly a logical interlocutor to help defuse tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan”, explains Michael Kugelman, senior program associate for South and Southeast Asia at the Woodrow Wilson Center, “It wields considerable leverage over Pakistan, and unlike the US—which just like China provides Pakistan with a lot of aid—the Chinese are well-liked and trusted by the Pakistanis. China is also respected by Kabul because of the various investments it has made in Afghanistan. China is very concerned by growing instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan, because it believes that Uighur militants use that unstable environment to create a sanctuary and staging grounds for attacks on China. And China understands that reducing instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan will require in part reducing the tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Though, Afghanistan-Pakistan tensions run very deep and go back very far in time, and there’s no way that an outside mediator—whether China or any other country—will able to solve them. Both countries will need to address domestic challenges at home before they can truly reconcile. For Pakistan, this means ending its state sponsorship of militants, and for Afghanistan, this means finding a way to deal with its Taliban problem—whether by defeating it on the battlefield or, more realistically, by trying to reconcile with it politically.It is true that Beijing is trying to improve its relations with New Delhi. However, Islamabad is sufficiently dependent on Beijing’s largesse that it should be willing to accede to China’s requests even if China is seen as getting closer to Pakistan’s traditional enemy in New Delhi”.

Despite the skirmish around the border, Beijing and Delhi are heading towards an improved cooperation, not only from the economic point-of-view (in February the Asian Giant became India’s first commercial partner). Delhi is also involved in the Central Asian country, mainly because of the 10 billion dollars invested in Hajigak, an iron minerals deposit 100km west of Kabul. Last January, Beijing hosted a three-sided meeting with Moscow and the Indian government to discuss Afghanistan’s future, after the departure of the American troops from the region. A topic that dominates the scene at the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), NATO’s antagonist Russian-Chinese-led block, to which Pakistan and India participate as observers. The conflict between the Indian and Pakistani government over Kashmir — controled for two thirds by Delhi and claimed in its integrity by Islamabad — has so far hindered their official entrance in the organization.

On November 10, 2013, the Indian capital city hosted a similar meeting sealed by the general wish for an economic reconstruction lead by Kabul in which the participation of the international community, must only be of support and not drawing power. It’s interesting to notice that this “support”, according to what is reported in the final communiqué, is to be carried on by regional and multilateral institutions, starting by SCO itself, by the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, the post-Soviet Collective Security Treaty Organization, end — only at last — NATO.

But driving the destiny of the Afghan growth, which is mostly export-oriented, will be above all the ability (or lack of ability) to strengthen the logistic sector. The Central Asian country is basically isolated because of the fragility of its transportation infrastructures. As Vaughan Winterbottom writes in “The Interpreter”, the American project for the Northern Distribution Network, series of logistic agreements that connect harbors on the Baltic and Caspian seas to Afghanistan, passing through Russia, Central Asian and Caucasus, was compromised by regional resentments. In February Eurasianet.org reported about bickering among the “-stan” countries, relating to the realization of the long awaited railway line TAT (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Tajikistan); project announced in 2011 by the former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, related to the “New Silk Road Strategy”, whose destiny is still uncertain today. The Central Asia Regional Electricity Trade Project, elaborated to transmit the energy surplus from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Pakistan by Afghanistan wasn’t much luckier, and is still years off despite the interest from the Asia Development Bank. And although Beijing has been working for years together with Islamabad at the strengthening of the  Gwadar-Karakoram-Xinjiang Corridor, bridge connecting Pakistan and the Chinese region of Xinjiang, the project looks mostly interested in providing a commercial and military access to the Baltic Sea for China; surely not bestowing dynamism to the neighboring Afghanistan.

On the other hand, there are good reasons to hope that the increasing activities carried on by the Chinese side in Central Asia, openly announced with the plan for an economic belt throughout Eurasia (another “New Silk Road”, this time with Xi Jinping’s signature on it), might bring some benefit also to Afghanistan. But “while economic connectivity by means of physical infrastructure undoubtedly works conducive to regional cooperation, Afghanistan’s enduring state of insecurity and possible political instability are concerns that need to be addressed properly parallel to the Silk Road Economic Belt’s unfolding. Kabul will also need to fine tune its soft infrastructure, i.e. digital infrastructure and customs protocol”, annotates Ghiasy.

“The New Silk Road initiative, if successful, could help boost economic growth in Afghanistan at a time when the Afghan economy is very weak”, said Kugelman, “it could increase trade, improve regional transport, and create strong energy markets throughout Central or South Asia, including Afghanistan. This would all improve regional integration, and therefore enhance development and the economy in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, it will be a major challenge to build a successful new silk road. There are two reasons why. One, the political relations of Central and South Asia are very poor. There are tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, Pakistan and India, and Russia and its surrounding states. Two, the security situation—particularly in Afghanistan—may not have a proper environment to allow for deep investments, the construction of energy pipelines, and other projects that require ample labor and stable conditions”.

Alessandra Colarizi is an Italian sinologist and freelance journalist covering China.

References:

http://thediplomat.com/2014/07/can-china-lead-the-push-for-afghan-stability/

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/18/us-china-afghanistan-idUSKBN0FN11Z20140718?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=*AfPak%20Daily%20Brief&utm_campaign=2014_The%20South%20Asia%20Daily

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/18/afghanistan-china-new-great-game-united-states

http://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/1453375/chinas-mcc-turns-back-us3b-mes-aynak-afghanistan-mine-deal

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/fiery-suv-crash-in-tiananmen-square-may-have-been-protest-by-ethnic-uighurs/2013/10/29/cc6f2372-4086-11e3-a624-41d661b0bb78_story.html

http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/is-trilateral-china-india-russia-cooperation-in-afghanistan-possible/

http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2014/04/10/Why-China-cant-be-Afghanistans-saviour-yet.aspx?COLLCC=2082258357&\

The post Afghanistan: Land Of Cooperation – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The current stand-off between Russia and the West over the situation in Ukraine will not affect the scheduled construction of South Stream gas pipeline, Financial Times reported Sunday quoting the head of the Austrian energy group OMV.

“Nobody can tell you not to build a pipeline. It’s a matter of national law… Everybody can decide for themselves. A pipeline is a 50-year project, so one should look at things realistically… A few months is not an issue,” Gerhard Roiss was quoted as saying.

He added that possible EU sanctions against Russia targeting the country’s gas industry would be an unwise decision.

“We have had integration in the area of gas with Russia for 45 years. Customers rely on getting their gas delivered. For that reason I don’t see any room for sanctions on gas,” the OMV chief elaborated.
Roiss also stressed that Russia is already delivering gas via the Opal pipeline with an annual capacity of 36 billion cubic meters even though Russia’s Gazprom had not secured an EU approval to run the pipeline at full capacity. Opal passes through Germany connecting the new trans-Baltic North Stream pipeline with gas transmission networks in Western and Central Europe.

Ross also insisted that an increase in the number of supply routes to Europe will benefit energy security.

“Four pipelines are better than three, and five are better than four. That is the pragmatic view,” he said.

Gazprom is constructing the South Stream pipeline across the Black Sea to Southern and Central European countries with aiming to diversify export routes for Russian gas. The construction started in late 2012, with the first deliveries expected in 2016. The pipeline is expected to become fully operational in 2018.

The European Commission is trying to hamper the project saying it violates the EU Third Energy Package banning the companies involved in gas production from owning long-distance pipelines in the region.

On June 24, Gazprom and OMV signed a shareholder pact of the joint venture South Stream Austria, defining the principles of construction and further operation of the respective gas pipeline on the Austrian territory.

The post South Stream To Be Constructed Despite Russia-West Stand-Off – Austrian Energy Group appeared first on Eurasia Review.

A 72-hour ceasefire brokered by Egypt went into effect at midnight Monday, hours after Israeli bombings killed four Palestinians and armed groups fired rockets toward Israel.

Palestinian factions agreed on the new 72-hour halt to hostilities in Cairo.

Officials said that during the three-day ceasefire, there will be extensive negotiations to reach a more lasting truce.

Meanwhile, humanitarian aid is expected to flow through Gaza crossings.

A Palestinian source in Cairo told AFP that the Egyptian mediators had received “simultaneous consensus” from both the Israeli and Palestinian side.

In order to reach a lasting truce in Gaza, Palestinians have demanded Israel end its eight-year siege on the Strip, release dozens of prisoners whom Israel has re-arrested that were released in 2011 as part of the Shalit exchange, re-open a seaport and airport in Gaza, and create a safe passage between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

Egypt, for its part, insisted on a lifting of Israel’s blockade on Gaza.

“This siege should be lifted in accordance to Israel’s responsibilities as an occupation force,” the foreign ministry in Cairo said in a statement.

Four weeks of bloody fighting have killed more than 1,917 Palestinians and 67 people on the Israeli side, most of them soldiers.

The UN says around three quarters of those killed in Gaza were civilians, around a third of them children.

On the ground, Gazans endured yet another day of fear Sunday as the air force hit dozens of targets, killing four Palestinians only hours before the ceasefire went into effect.

Militants also launched dozens of rockets over the border.

The post 72-Hour Gaza Ceasefire Takes Effect appeared first on Eurasia Review.

A Swedish father has incurred public rage after choosing an original way to explain to his video-gamer kids the realities of real-life war: by taking them to genuine war zones in occupied Syria and the West Bank.

The move no longer appears to be some miscalculated foolhardy decision, once you get acquainted with Carl-Magnus Helgegren – a journalist, university teacher, triathlete, DJ, and systems analyst who speaks five languages.

Helgegren, who shares custody of his children with their mother, wrote in a personal blog entry that a point comes when one simply isn’t able to control everything their kids see.

Leo and Frank, both aged 10, developed an interest for violent video games with a war theme, like many others, before they had reached the mandatory age of 16. So, they brought the issue up with Helgegren, touting the latest installment in the Call of Duty franchise, with its blood, guts, dramatic music, and ultra-realistic action.

“We were sitting at the dinner table last autumn, and my kids started telling me about this game they wanted to play, the latest Call of Duty game, and told me about the guns and missions,” the father told Sweden’s edition of The Local.

But how real could a video game get? Helgegren decided to make a bet with his two sons: they would visit a real war zone with him, feel the atmosphere, and engage with the people for whom survival or combat is an everyday reality – and upon return, would be able to play any video game they desired.

Although his sons didn’t believe him at first, Helgegren wasn’t kidding. Having decided that Iraq and Afghanistan were too dangerous at that point, he went for “the closest you can get to war on a tourist ticket” – occupied Golan Heights and the West Bank.

While staying with an Israeli family and enjoying the tourist sights in Jerusalem and other areas, the family’s real destinations were places like the Shufat refugee camp, where “people burned trash in the streets, and there was an illegal drug market right next to the school.”

“We went to a clinic where kids were being stitched up every single day because they had been hit in the head with the butt of a rifle,” Helgegren told the newspaper.

But Helgegren was thorough in his explanations; he tried to get across to his children that not all actions carried out by a soldier correspond with the thoughts and desires of a particular society, and that there are politics involved, especially where Israel is concerned.

Helgegren was in an especially suitable position to impart some knowledge of the realities of life onto his two kids, being a freelance journalist with prior experience in the Middle East.

He explained that it was “quite late in my life when I finally started to scratch the surface of what war really was…I thought I had a pretty good idea from television, but when I was 29 I realized I had absolutely no idea what war was. And my kids couldn’t explain it either.”

Upon return home, his noble intentions bore fruit; Frank and Leo no longer wanted to play Call of Duty. In fact, they wanted to go back to the Middle East one day.

The post Swedish Father Takes Video-Gamer Kids To Real War Zone appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Macedonia started off their European Qualifying campaign with a win against Belgium in Group D.

Somewhat lethargic start marked the first quarter of the match which Belgium won 19-16. The wheels came off in the second quarter where the host team committed a dozen turnovers which resulted in quick brake points for the visitors. Missed trees and bad passes by Macedonia combined with frequent offensive rebounds by Belgium saw a 23-36 score for half time.

Turning point

Coach Dzikic was angered by the lack of effort and turnovers. During a timeout in the second half he screamed at his players in English and Macedonian. Even though Hendricks is the only American, he got the message as well.

Different story in second half. Threes started going in, the defense became much better – seven blocked shots in the second half. Trajkovski and Stojanovski each scored 16 points with Kostoski adding 14.

The turn around was complete in the fourth quarter after Macedonia won the third 23-13. The match was tied with 4 seconds to go, thanks to a great block by Hendricks who then passed the ball to Vojdan Stojanovski for the breakaway.

When everyone expected a win, Vojdan Stojanovski missed an easy layup in the last second of the match. The crowd was stunned by the miss. 62-62 was the final score in regular time.

Over Time

Belgium took a 65-62 lead in OT via a quick three. The crowd felt the team was in trouble, particularly after the Stojanovski’s miss. A comedy of errors ensues by both teams, with Macedonia taking advantage via threes by Kostoski and Trajkovski. Macedonia took the lead, but not for long thanks to frequent turnovers which resulted in easy Belgium baskets.

73-73 with 20 seconds to go.

Simonovski is left wide open for a three, he scores.

Belgium inbounded the ball with 2.4 seconds. The American born Lojeski was left wide open for a three, however his shot bounced off the rim which meant the Macedonian crowd could finally breath a sigh of relief. 76-73 was the final score, both Macedonia and Belarus now have 2 pts, Belarus defeated Denmark in their match earlier today.

The post Macedonia Beats Belgium 76-73 In European Qualifying appeared first on Eurasia Review.

On January 31, 1970, the great philosopher Bertrand Russell wrote a message on the conflict in the Middle East, which was read on February 3, the day after his death, to an International Conference of Parliamentarians meeting in Cairo. He wrote, “The development of the crisis in the Middle East is both dangerous and instructive. For over 20 years Israel has expanded by force of arms. After every stage in this expansion Israel has appealed to “reason” and has suggested “negotiations”. This is the traditional role of the imperial power, because it wishes to consolidate with the least difficulty what it has already taken by violence. Every new conquest becomes the new basis of the proposed negotiation from strength, which ignores the injustice of the previous aggression. The aggression committed by Israel must be condemned, not only because no state has the right to annex foreign territory, but because every expansion is an experiment to discover how much more aggression the world will tolerate.”

Israel obviously has perfected the art of negotiating from a position of strength. The Western nations – all former colonial powers – through their support of this rogue state have epitomized the art of double standard! In their condemnation of the Palestinian resistance movement they won’t tell us that the tragedy of the people of Palestine is that their country was “given” by a foreign power to another (European Jewish) people for the creation of a new state (Israel) which resulted in expulsion of more than 700,000 innocent people who were made permanently homeless. They also don’t want us to know that the then government of Great Britain had no authority to assign the land of Palestine to anyone other than the people who were living there (i.e., the Palestinians). They also don’t tell us that when the United Nations assigned a portion of Palestine to the European Jewish immigrants in the so-called Partition of Palestine in 1947, it violated its own Charter which stated that it had no right to do so without obtaining the consent of the mandate territory’s population.

What happened in Palestine was classical Western colonialism, which can sustain itself only via its superior military or economic resources and by enforced occupation. As aptly noted by Peter Cohen, a retired sociologist from the University of Amsterdam and a Jewish-Dutch World War II survivor, in a recent article in the Huffington Post, superior strength, however, does not create legitimacy. Israel has none. Cohen writes, “It is a territory in the Middle East under Western occupation, which possesses no political legitimacy now, nor can it ever acquire such legitimacy in the future because it has no raison d’être and cannot create one.

Instead, Israel’s policy has always been to create faits accomplis, conquests that have been consolidated with the aid of its constituent Western states in Europe and North America. To date, this policy has never been effectively challenged, and so it continues in the same vein. Israel can carry on creating more and more faits accomplis, perpetuating its status as an ever-expanding occupation with vastly superior military strength. But if it loses the West’s support, it will no longer have the means to defend itself, having nothing that could preserve its existence, nor the raw materials to sustain itself. It could use atomic weapons, but this does not in any sense bolster the legitimacy of the Western implant.”

Israel, as a colony, is a constant source of violence and conflict. And it will remain so unless the very colonial structure on which it is founded is brought down – something that has happened in our time with apartheid South Africa. With every new conflict since the birth of Israel the number of refugees has grown. And the worst problem is: these refugees are safe nowhere, not even in the UN compounds, schools, mosques and hospitals of Gaza. There are scores of international laws that state that the refugees have every right to the homeland from which they were driven, and the denial of this fundamental right is at the heart of the continuing conflict.

How much longer is the world willing to endure this spectacle of wanton cruelty of Israel? It is abundantly clear that no people anywhere in the world would accept being bombed and expelled en masse from their own country. How can anyone require the people of Palestine to accept a punishment which nobody else would tolerate? Will the Palestinian people be ever free? Will they ever get justice for the crimes inflicted on them by the powerful against them?

I am beginning to doubt. I am very skeptical these days. True to the words of Bertrand Russell, Israel as a colonial enterprise has been able to abuse the process of negotiation to her advantage to extract further concession towards expanding its control while curtailing everything for the vanquished, occupied Palestinians. Every negotiation since the unholy birth of the state of Israel has been a deception, a farce, a show for public consumption to not only legitimize its illegitimate grab of the Palestinian land but also to delegitimize Palestinian struggle and aspiration for freedom.

And the Israelis have partners in their crimes – and it is not the USA, UK and western powers alone that dominate the UN and world bodies – but our own criminals ruling some of the Muslim countries.

These governments who don’t allow any form of democracy – the kingdoms, sheikhdoms and military dictators – are some of the worst enemies of the people of Palestine. Thus, not a single bullet has been fired in defense of the violated Palestinians by these regimes. And this, in spite of the fact that each of these Arab regimes spend billions of dollars every year to buy arms and ammunitions from their western patrons and beneficiaries! You wonder why they have all those deadly toys in their arsenal if they are never going to use such for what is right and just! Are those ‘toys’ supposed to be used against desert flies then?

A knowledgeable friend of mine said that he read somewhere that some of the rich, anti-Brotherhood, anti-Hamas, and by default, anti-Qatari, governments had actually bank-rolled Israel’s latest massacre in Gaza. I don’t know the veracity of his claim. But I won’t be surprised if the story ever turns out to be true.

Many of the reactionary, anti-people regimes in the Middle East do not tolerate anything that could destabilize their regimes. The popular movements like the Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood are perceived as existential threats to these regimes. They did not like the Arab Spring a bit. What became popular among the ordinary masses of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya in northern Africa were nightmares for the rulers in neighboring countries (and their western patrons). They have done everything since the people’s revolution in Tunisia and Egypt had succeeded in unseating the hated dictators to put the genie back to the bottle where it belonged. Thus, the popularly elected President Dr. Mohammad al-Morsi was soon toppled by their man – Sisi, the neo-Pharaoh of Egypt. All the leaders of Muslim Brotherhood are now awaiting death sentences or long prison terms. They wanted to put the death-nail on Hamas, too, which had historical ties with Muslim Brotherhood.

Sadly, as the Gazans bled to death, and their homes and businesses, mosques, schools, colleges, universities and hospitals were bombed by Netanyahu’s criminal IDF, the Obama and Cameron governments of the USA and the UK resupplied Israel with more arms and ammunitions during the current conflict while hypocritically speaking about the need for de-escalation of the war through negotiation. Are these western patrons oblivious of the magnitude of their crimes? Don’t they know that their actions, which have resulted in the death of thousands of innocent civilians, constitute war crimes? Will they pay compensation for the Palestinian victims?

Just the reconstruction of bombed out facilities inside Gaza may cost ten billion US dollars! How about the dead and the injured people?

Israel and her patrons are for ‘negotiations’ – those same old parleys which have only endorsed Israeli aggression and dehumanized their victims! Those ‘negotiations’ have become part of textbook case for Israeli propaganda with the added impetus to extract further concessions, let alone requiring that the Palestinians accept the lawfulness of their expulsion.

Was not it Avigdor Lieberman, Netanyahu’s Foreign Minister, who candidly explained what such negotiations meant for Israel? Four years ago when speaking to the readership of the right-wing Makor Rishon paper, he said: “I do not think there is anything to be expected from negotiations. Even if lasting 16 years they will produce no agreement. But my travels around the globe have shown me that the world is very interested in seeing peace talks start, even if only for the sake of appearance. A willingness to talk and talk is something we can give. Why not?” (Makor Rishon, April 30, 2010)

Moshe Feiglin, aspiring to push Netanyahu out of his job as Likud leader and PM, was also heard saying in 2010, “We will win because we represent what most Likud members really want — a government which says loud and clear that this country is ours and ours only. I definitely want to deprive Arabs of civil rights, unless they prove their loyalty to the state, and give them financial encouragement to emigrate from here. Any area from which Israel is attacked should be conquered and its whole population expelled.” (Yediot Aharonot – April 23, 2010)

Dozens of Israeli leaders from top to bottom can be cited to show that statehood of the Palestinians with a just peaceful settlement of the crisis has never been the real intent of the Israeli leaders. Israel’s laws make it clear that the Palestinians are not only militarily incapacitated but have also been stripped of all their legal rights.

Not surprisingly, we are told that Hamas is not falling for such old tricks put forth by the joint Israeli-Egyptian team where the Zionists set all the rules of the game. They are demanding opening up the Port of Gaza and easing of cross-border movement of goods. Upon their arrival in Cairo, the Palestinians had been informed by Egyptian security chiefs – speaking on behalf of Netanyahu – that the very issue of opening Gaza’s sea port (and airport) is “not on the agenda”. How about easing of conditions for the prison conditions under which a million and eight hundred thousand Gazans are held in Gaza – world’s largest concentration camp by the two closely colluding warders, Israeli and Egyptian, who control all their access to the outside world? Fat chance.

We are told that this weekend missiles were fired from Gaza killing none and that IDF had bombed inside Gaza destroying a mosque and some homes, killing many Gazans. The death toll is now nearly 2,000.

Blame it all on Hamas for refusing to be duped again! And now criminal Netanyahu’s government says that it will not negotiate under fire: the ‘deadly’, ‘Iron-door-shattering’ missiles fired by Hamas must cease in order to make it possible to talk. To these neo-Nazis of Israel lying and deception come very easily. They don’t want us to know that of the Palestinian victims almost all were civilians, and that on the Israeli side only 3 civilians had died, which included a Thai worker. Out of a total 66 Israeli dead, 64 were soldiers. Thus, 97% of the dead Israelis were the IDF soldiers, and not civilians. And yet, Netanyahu’s lies are parroted by the Obama administration and other western governments and their yellow journalists.

It seems that Gazans would have to fight – and fight hard whether or not Obama, Cameron, Sisi and other friends of Israel in the opposite camp like it.  Their struggle is for freedom and human dignity. And they have a right for such values which we all take for granted without having to die for.

In his last message Bertrand Russell said, “Justice requires that the first step towards a settlement must be an Israeli withdrawal from all the territories occupied in June, 1967. A new world campaign is needed to help bring justice to the long-suffering people of the Middle East.” That call, sadly, remains unfulfilled. How long can the friends of Israel dupe us with hypocritical negotiations that reward the aggressor while ignoring the real issue which is Israeli colonialism?

The post Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations: To What Ends? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Efforts to eliminate stocks of rockets and missiles seem unlikely to succeed in the current context. However, a ban on use might be a real possibility and merits speedy consultations.

By René Wadlow

The use of rockets by Islamic groups from Gaza toward Israel and the more deadly use of rockets and bombs by Israeli forces toward Gaza have dramatically raised the possibility of banning rocket use in the Middle East.

Arms control in this region has always been difficult, as the Middle East has no equivalent of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). As a universal organization, the United Nations has difficulty dealing with regional security matters. There are UN regional bodies to deal with economic and social issues, but not security-related ones.

Thus, discussions and negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program is an ad hoc grouping. Likewise, negotiations on a Middle East Nuclear-weapon Free Zone often proposed by UN General Assembly resolutions - as well as agreed upon during the 5-year reviews of the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons - has never advanced (though Finland had proposed to host a governmental conference on the issue).

The Arms Control and Regional Security Working Group (ACRS) was created during the 1992-1995 period, evolving from the Madrid “peace process” with 14 States. In the words of then US Secretary of State James Baker, the agenda of the Working Group was to consider a set of modest confidence-building or transparency measures covering notification of selected military-related activities and crisis-prevention communications. The purpose would be to lessen the prospects for incidents and miscalculations that could lead to heightened competition or even conflict.

The approach followed the pattern of NATO-Warsaw Pact discussions as part of what was then the Conference for Security and Cooperation in Europe. The ACRS confidence-building and transparency measures were so modest that it went unnoticed when they ended in 1996.

Arms control can succeed when it is part of a larger process that addresses the human, social, and psychological elements that undermine security. The NATO-Warsaw Pact confidence-building measures took place as the first “winds of change” were blowing in Eastern Europe, and there were subtle signs of change in the Soviet Union leading to the 1990 Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe.

Unfortunately, confidence and security-building measures leading to missile control do not seem to be high on the current agendas of Middle East governments. With violence exploding, hopes for positive steps toward an Israeli-Palestinian accord in the near future seem dim. Some believe that regional arms control can only come after a comprehensive peace has been established in the region, to be followed by a state of peace among peoples beyond the terms of a formal peace agreement. Only then can there be an arms control process linked to confidence-building measures. In this approach, arms are seen as a result of political tensions, not the cause of political instability.

Thus, some feel that pressures to force premature disarmament in the absence of reliable alternative security structures will be seen as efforts to gain unilateral advantage rather than promote co-operative security and stability.

No one will argue that the general political “climate” is not important to arms control efforts.  However, a “one-weapon-at-a-time” approach has had some success at the world level concerning chemical weapons, land mines, and cluster bombs, as well as the small-arms trade. In nearly all of these situations, non-governmental organizations played an important role in raising the issue and then building momentum once a few governments took interest and provided leadership within government meetings.

Thus, the Association of World Citizens proposed in an 18 July 2014 message to the Secretary General of the United Nations and the Secretary General of the League of Arab States that serious consideration be given to a pledge by States and non-State actors (such as Hamas) to refuse to use rockets and missiles at any time.

The Association of World Citizens’ proposal is based on the “no first use” pledges concerning the use of nuclear weapons − a commitment never to initiate a nuclear attack under any circumstance. This commitment has become an accepted international norm, though few nuclear-weapon States have made such a pledge.  The norm is reiterated in UN General Assembly Resolution 36/100n, which states in its Preamble,

Any doctrine allowing the first use of nuclear weapons and any actions pushing the world toward a catastrophe are incompatible with human moral standards and the lofty ideals of the UN.

The Association of World Citizens’ proposal follows the pattern of the 1925 Geneva Protocol, aka the Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use in War of Asphyxating, Poisonous or Other Gases and of Bacteriological Methods of Warfare. The Protocol bans the use (but not the possession) of the poison gas so widely used during the 1914-1918 World War. The idea of inspection and total destruction of stocks of chemical weapons came much later. It was Syria’s signature on the 1925 Geneva Protocol that led to the country’s recent agreement to honor the no-use provisions and ultimately to destroy existing stocks under the provisions of the more recent Chemical Weapons Treaty, which Syria also signed. However, it was the 1925 Geneva Protocol, as incomplete as it is, that “opened the door” to effective action.

Efforts to eliminate stocks of rockets and missiles seem unlikely to succeed in the current context. However, a ban on use might be a real possibility and merits speedy consultations.

René Wadlow is president and a U.N. representative (Geneva) of the Association of World Citizens and editor of Transnational Perspectives.

This article was originally published on GlobalSolutions.org and is available by clicking here.

The post Could Use Of Rockets Be Banned In Middle East? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Book review of Peter Tase‘s “The Image of Paraguay in the United States, The Presidency of Dr. Federico Franco Gómez, 2012-2013″ (July 2014, USA)

Simplicity of expression, methodological specificity of appearances with journalistic specifics of quality diversity and strength of objective arguments that even for one moment does not become recognizable as arguments of power but rather the opposite – the power of the arguments.

The severity analysis approach towards the Paraguayan economy, its past and present, with the aim of emphasizing quality preconditions for the future is what separates this book in comparison with similar essayistic-reportage-focused analytical essays. In medias res: Books of similar embodiments often have for a goal assumption of the manipulative actions, targeted desire of caterwaul tom through certain forms of economic determinations open doors of daffodils, using the phrase “the road to hell is paved with good intentions.” No, this book is not only analytically precise, scientifically formulated and expressed journalistic clarity, but it may be a textbook of a new generation. Journalists often tend to be a “universal ignorant” going towards the realization of “a little knowledge of everything” instead of “knowledge of specific manifestations humbly and strongly.” Peter Tase belongs to the other mentioned, being the scientist who objectively, scientifically satisfactory form of answers to the essential question of HOW (?), trying to not only ask questions, but also giving the answers on topics given to his own journalistic, analytical being.

Paraguay’s Luis Federico Franco Gómez

Tase reveals the bays of hope within the Bermuda Triangle of false assumptions, carrying himself with the thought that does not impose, but merely directs (and, is it a goal of objective journalism, scientific kind, primarily?) our considerations towards the methodology of knowledge about something, to have that “something” has become receptive to space and time on which he is focused at. And us with him; Not even for one moment the yielding to be trapped with manipulation by his own words (and thoughts of course) that it might take away, carried him away in the opposite direction, he connects incompatible indeed, connecting people, cities, regions, and countries. Why? Because of the basic, human, civilization wish to show that on the area of the world does not walk figures deluded with conspiracy theories, but the people who make civilization of the moment and who wants to live a decent life no matter where, when, how much and how they live. Of course, the question “HOW” is essential if we focus on all of the above.

Peter Tase

Answers are found in the book by Peter Tase, of course, if we know how to read it. Not between the lines, because he was not of that kind of authors who gives troubles urbi et orbi to the people when readers’ head smashes with the question “what the writer wanted to say”, but directly by decomposing the manifested and, folding it back into analytical forms of possible visions. Of the cooperation, upgrading and implementations. Of the economy, in all its forms. Of the appearances. We live in an imperfect world. A world where the rich have more and more and the poor less and less. In the world of capitalism that has overcome the possible alternatives shaped and structured within socialism in the century behind us. But whether is the capitalism that we know today lobby of the “end of history”, as Fukuyama announced? Maybe we need to experience a some kind of end, catharsis in front of which is just South American area of economic potential and economic prosperity, to be able see that the answer is right in the modalities of the possible alternatives offered by this book.

How? That persisting question again opens before us. The answer is, as always, painfully simple. Peter Tase, when analyzing the orientation of the President’s wishes of one small (in terms of space, people, and, to some extent, limited resources), but large (at orientations, realizations, aspirations) country such as Paraguay, he uses a simple formula: The formula, which is located in a reply to challenge of the above mentioned capitalist orientations. In fact, as far as we are saying that there may be an alternative to the above, there is something in which people are forced to abuse said “put somebody on power and give him money – and you will see who really he is.” In the negative sense, of course; simplicity of determination of the President of Paraguay, with his associates is proving just the opposite. That man who has the power and the money does not have just always to have negative directions.

Why? Due to the understanding of space and time in which he lives. Knowing that benefit for the individual brings good today and for a short time, and the common good brings benefit for a longer period of time for everybody. The fight against corruption, nepotism, thievery, manipulation, neglect, in regards paying taxes and not investing in new production processes and economic forms of improvement with the aim of achieving untaxed profit is the priority task of the President of this South American country. Of course, if he had the support of the general population. Do not forget, and this is identical in all countries of the world, the thought that we have listed about the power and money we can clearly see only as a negation of itself if we have associates who support our goal towards general-common, not towards individual good. Not long ago I wrote a thought, aphorism, “The power does not change the human. Who were jerks before he will continue to be that”; yes, this is exactly the answer to all “disbelievers”. Specifically, in the case of the President of Paraguay finally confirmed the opposite, because he had not been specified within that thought, aphorism. The man who has been directed towards good in “previous” life could not otherwise do things in “today’s” life. But doing good. And stay to remain identical to his own goals regardless being the ordinary citizen and / or the president. Of Paraguay.

Through education reform, democratic institutions reforms, electoral system, through the rule of law and not through the law of rule, the President of Paraguay is an example of a man and a politician who wants and to do well, because all the religions of the world teaches us that “good gives…good” His presidency in the given period is not just exemplary of the leadership of the country, not only for his own space and time, but also more widely, and beyond. Peter Tase, through this occasion gives us the view from the USA towards the pragmatic President willing to confront serious problems in the country and being ready to do something more than just to execute the mandate of President-puppet, and often ends up on the political trials, as his predecessors. To this president that could not happen. Transparency was his brutal, but honest answer. The answer that confuses enemies and makes friends where you least expect. In a direct conversation through interview with the President of Paraguay, Peter Tase, in a skillfully brave scholarly interview leads to a genuine encounter with the truth – oriented quality of living for the people, but also for the country as a whole. Aimed towards political and economic evolution which might only appear as it is with missing the letter “r” at the beginning of word, the president of Paraguay with his practicality concreteness turns to be serious – environment in which he exists. Cooperation with neighboring countries, the European Union, USA and all those who seek common interests where everybody wins (win-win situation) with a view to the welfare of all for all and not some for individual someone-or several of them, is the basic goal of presenting the life and way of work of this man. President. Small, but a great country; multilingual approach of launching of this journalists-essayistic-reportage kind of the work is another benefit of the author.

And he succeeds in doing that, bringing seemingly distant languages to other people, and vice versa. Although he explains in details the meetings of the President of this country with other officials of the neighboring countries and beyond, overseas friends, not for one moment we find no excess of condescending that owns “house” journalists but on the contrary, we have the “discoverer” of the truth in front of us. These high quality strongly substantiated truth about time and space and the impact of one man in space and time in which he lives. And works. Aspiring towards good. Writing texts of essayistic origin in Eurasia Review and Spero News during the period covered by this book, Peter Tase presented the consistency of his vision without departing from the basic assumptions of journalistic craft. Of what? Precisely what many journalists are missing makes this author a gifted writer.

What is it? Through cinematic framing of the specific news and developments before us spreads a beautiful rug of the facts, argumentative attitudes, wise conclusions, and recommendations. Focus on the man about he writes, talks to him, but also using the most valuable thing that makes a man a human – aspiring towards the truth. Although we are all determined by the environment where we grow up, through education, the influence of tradition, religion, race, gender, etc., before us appears the author does not abuse these influences but, on the contrary, took advantages of them and skillfully uses it to be able to give us a man of different area and the environment. Peter Tase advantage is that he is a man without prejudice, open and focused to the implementation of methodology of realization of understanding that we are humans on the first place, and after that specially designated national; religious and/or traditional forms of appearance. Multi-identity that exists within the author of this book is an advantage in a world filled with faults exclusion, hatred and prejudices. His writing is a symbolic reflection of the artist of words in the face of angry everyday life which he reveals frankly, inspired and skillfully. With focuses even on the tiniest detail when talking about dates, places and people. In and around them.

Opening of the perspectives for the general awareness of the world in and around Paraguay, this author has created a better understanding of ourselves as well. Because understanding the other, we are creating preconditions for better understanding of the own acts and actions. Contradictio in adiecto? No, just the opposite. This book is an example of that. It teaches us. Creating a textbook of knowledge. About the space and time. Having the good fortune to be a contemporary of time and space about which he is writing, Peter Tase reveals for us the truth in its fullness. Through the concreteness, with the power of the argument in the fight against gray of obedient journalism, while understanding that it is a difficult time in front of a single man, but he knows what he’s doing. Again, aspiring towards good. With a focus on specific forms of economic orientations of the MERCOSUR region as the “breadbasket of the world” – the Common Market of South America where everybody wins with a view for the development and survival of each of the Member States on the basis of equality, this journalist and scholar does good. And not only about that, but on tourism, cooperation with other countries, regions, economic unifying own orientations. Speaking of the essence because of the concrete forms of implementation. World being targeted. Being conscious with historical facts, in his writings is possible to see the reflection of seeing of a human, and after that only journalists and scholar, who devoted his direction to the country that is not of his origin, but his determination. Knowing that the longest journey begins with the first step. And when we talk about awakening of the humans, people, countries. But also us about them. And about us, ourselves. Within the collaboration with colleague Martin Barillas also in a number of texts of this book.

As I said, the film framing of Peter Tase before us creates a documentary vision of people and acting in one country for me, as a European, so far away, but after reading this book, so close to me. Especially when we talk about everyday life in Paraguay within the economic, political and social problems which are faced with. Surrounded by a large fish to whom is not enough to limit them the habitat but already want to deny even themselves. My dear Bosnia and Herzegovina, the land of the Serbs, Croats, Muslims, but most of all of all Bosnians and Herzegovinians, is it happens to you as well for centuries?

Paraguay is a country that respects tradition through shaping Guarani language as a promotional form of survival of the culture and tradition due to the fact that this is the only official indigenous language in South America that is used in official communications. Peter Tase stayed, in the form of these presentations, remained consistent to himself, opening new doors of understanding for the culture of the country in the survival, pride and unity. As I began this story of a human – a writer, journalist, I will finish in the same way: Simplicity of expression, methodological specificity of appearances with journalistic specifics of quality diversity and strength of objective arguments that even for one moment does not become recognizable as arguments of power but rather the opposite – the power of the arguments. Why I am repeating the introductory sentence. Because the announcement has confirmed discussed above. And it is worth. The power of the arguments: of Peter’s.

The post Power Of Arguments And Not The Arguments Of Power – Book Review appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Rachel Williamson

The proposed deployment of armed contingents to protect oil installations in the self-declared Republic of Somaliland risks further destabilizing a region rife with disputes over sovereignty, boundaries and oil concessions.

Security is deemed necessary for seismic exploration in areas of Somaliland thought to contain significant quantities of oil, some of which are also claimed by neighbouring Puntland, an autonomous region which, unlike Somaliland, still regards itself a part of the Federal Republic of Somalia.

Who exactly would control and manage such armed contingents and what their precise mandate would be, have yet to be determined. Since Somaliland’s independence is unrecognized internationally, the territory remains subject to a UN arms embargo, which means it would need to obtain permission from a sanctions committee before importing military equipment or conducting military training.

This briefing unpicks some of the key issues.

What is the Oil Protection Unit?

Somaliland offered to create an Oil Protection Unit (OPU) in October 2013 after security complaints from oil firms currently conducting seismic explorations.

In September, 2013 Anglo-Turkish oil firm Genel Energy suspended its exploratory activities in Somaliland “in the face of a deteriorating security situation”.

Somaliland’s energy minister, Abdi Hussein Dualeh, said it was now important to “create the right climate that makes them [operators such as Genel] feel safer to resume operations.”

An OPU blueprint, drawn up by UK security consultancy Assaye Risk, calls for 420 initial recruits, and a full strength force of 580, which will be organized into six mobile units managed by an interior ministry committee which would liaise with risk management firms that are hired by the oil companies. Genel Energy paid for the blueprint.

The blueprint estimates that the cost of the OPU would be around US$20-25 million per year, a cost likely to be covered by the oil firms, who would provide a monthly salary to staff.

Somaliland already spends 54 percent of its $212 million annual budget on security, and would most probably be unable to absorb further costs. Because it is not recognized by international governments, it is often hard for the self-declared state to attract significant international aid and other forms of funding.

So far, in addition to Genel Energy, explorers operating, or hoping to operate, in Somaliland include the United Arab Emirates (UAE) firm RAK Gas, Norwegian/UAE company DNO and Yemeni explorer Ansan Wikfs.

Although OPU currently exists only on paper, has no staff and no headquarters, nor clear promises of funding to allow it to be set up, the government hopes to have it up and running by the end of the year.

What are the risks?

Mainly, of increasing instability. The OPU’s area of operations would include locations, notably Sool and Sanaag, covered by oil concessions issued by Puntland, which lays claim to parts of the region.

Recent months have seen authorities in Puntland and from the Somali government in Mogadishu increase their political and financial support for leaders in Sool who reject Somaliland’s authority and want to set up a state within Somalia called Khatumo. Mogadishu has contested Hargeisa’s right to issue oil licences.

In April, and again in June, Somaliland forces briefly took control of Taleh, the main town in Khatumo, as leaders there were preparing to hold a conference on the state’s future.

According to a 12 May UN report, “tension between Puntland and ‘Somaliland’ increased over the contested Sool and Sanaag regions. The visit by the President of ‘Somaliland’ Ahmed Mohamed Mohamoud Silanyo, to the coastal town of Laasqoray in the disputed Sanaag region on 16 March triggered a military build-up from both sides. Accusations made by senior Puntland officials that ‘Somaliland’ was supporting Al Shabab further strained relations.”

While the OPU’s envisaged role is only to protect oil installations – notably from the Islamist Al Shabab insurgency – inserting armed men into such a volatile environment is cause for concern.

“When three sides have different interpretations of what belongs to whom on the ground, Somaliland’s deployment of an OPU will be a red rag to a bull, sending a signal that it is shutting out competitors, which could give rise to an explosive situation,” said one close observer of these developments who preferred anonymity.

Energy minister Dualeh played down the idea that elements of the local population posed a significant threat to oil firms.

“They’re not really worried about the people in Sanaag; they’re worried about some Shabab people coming from the south,” he said.

(In January 2013, Al-Qaeda-linked terrorists took over a remote natural gas plant in Algeria, holding over 800 people hostage for four days, before Algerian Special Forces raided the plant to attempt to free them. At least 39 hostages were killed during the siege, according to the Algerian government.)

Who will oversee the OPU?

Critics argue that the unit is being set up behind closed doors, subverting parliamentary approval.

The government denies that OPU would operate beyond official oversight. It says that because it will comprise existing police and military units, it is not a new force, and therefore does not require parliamentary approval.

Officials also stress it would not be controlled by oil firms. “It will be under the command and control of the Somaliland… police structure, so it basically has nothing to do with the oil company telling them to do this and do that,” Dualeh told IRIN.

But Ibrahim Jama, a member of parliament and chair of the parliamentary internal affairs and security committee, said he has seen charts outlining the proposed OPU chain of command. They indicated the unit would report to a yet-to-be-created interior ministry committee, instead of the chief of police.

This, he believed, meant that OPU could be potentially exposed to political or corporate influence – creating the possibility it could be used against oil sector opponents.

“I realize such a unit needs to have a law that permits them to operate, to regulate them. In the absence of a law to regulate their activity it will be a paramilitary force,” Jama told IRIN. He said there is a clause in the constitution stipulating that any new security services outside the police, military or custodial pillars must be approved by parliament.

Are there any comparable security units in Somaliland?

A Rapid Response Unit (RRU) was created in 2012 as a counter-terrorism force, and is part of the police.

Activists accuse the RRU of committing human rights violations against members of the public.

The Hargeisa-based Human Rights Centre is compiling a report outlining alleged abuses by the RRU. Lawyer and Centre co-founder Guleid Ahmed Jama provided an incomplete list of 84 arrests and three instances of the use of lethal force during protests by the elite squad since February 2013.

MP Jama told IRIN the RRU brief is too vague and extensive. He accused the RRU of being used as a political tool, citing the closure of the Huubal newspaper offices in 2013 following a story it published about divisions within the police, and midnight raids on former senior political officials.

A highly placed foreign source in Hargeisa, who spoke on condition of anonymity, called the RRU “gung-ho” with a reputation for being aggressive and “trigger happy”. He said the unit had a bad name in Burco after conducting several raids without alerting local police first.

What are the alternatives?

There are not too many. Dominik Balthasar of the Mogadishu-based Heritage Institute of Policy Studies, the author of a new study on Somalia oil prospects, said an alternative would be to allowing oil companies to hire private security contractors, who would be accountable to no one.

“OPU would at least be accountable to the Somaliland government, which has an interest in keeping a short leash on the OPU in light of its continued quest for international recognition. Thus, the decisive question is not necessarily whether an OPU should be established, but how this should be done,” Balthasar told IRIN by email.

Energy minister Dualeh suggested OPU might be audited by the oil companies before it became fully functional.

Whitney Shinkle, strategic adviser for Bancroft Global Development, a firm that audited Puntland’s Marine Police Force in 2012 and found serious breaches, including of the UN arms embargo on Somalia, said the criteria the organization used when auditing new security services in developing countries could be a guide to how an OPU might be measured.

Such criteria include whether a new force was set up in line with local and international laws, and whether the end result was suitable for the purpose it was intended to serve. The strength and transparency of the organizational structure were also important considerations.

The post Somaliland, Oil And Security – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Empire-hawks have had the upper hand in American politics for several decades and, given the shifting economic power taking place in the world, they are now seemingly suicidal, ready to lead us into nuclear holocaust. Just like Jim Jones did with his followers 36 years ago in Jonestown. This time, however, the kool-aid is being dispensed by the US mainstream media laced with a different poison: raw propaganda against the Russian Federation and its malefic leader, Vladimir Putin.

The White House, acceding to the war-mongering influence that radiates from the Pentagon, the State Department and Congress, is performing a poorly-written morality play for the world to see, absurdly levying sanctions which will likely affect the leviers (US and EU) as much or more than the intended sanctioned, as Russia answers with quid pro quo economic counter-sanctions.

Washington may wish to be seen as a white knight defending Ukraine’s territorial integrity; a farce, when in the last year and a half the US has been instrumental in destabilizing that nation with regime change intended to bring the former Soviet republic to the bosom of the West. The strategy appears motivated not so much by magnanimity, to afford a greater future for a nation which is a true economic basket-case, but to close in to the borders of Russia, economically and militarily.

In a nutshell: keep the Russian bear caged and Putin’s dream of a strong and economically integrated Eurasia unrealized!

Common economic sense, however, is likely to silence the loud drums of war.

Angus Maddison, the late British macro-economist who studied/researched the history of World GDP, claimed that India and China were the biggest economies in the world for almost all of the past 2000 years. Then the industrial revolution, colonialism and the information revolution entered and changed the mix.

I am well aware of the danger in extrapolating data compiled by the World Bank for a period extending all of a decade, but my curiosity in economics and statistics has won the day. After some minor subjective geo-political considerations which I anticipate might take place in the next 5 to 10 years, I see the future composition of the World GDP by 2024 as 12 nations claiming 82 percent of the pie and the rest of the world combined accounting for the other 18 percent. The dozen major economies, with their respective rounded-off share (to the nearest half percent), would line up in this decreasing order: China, 20%; US, 15%; Russia and Brazil, each 7.5%; Japan, 6%; Germany and India, each 5%; Australia and France, each 3.5%; and Canada, Italy and Indonesia, each 3%. The United Kingdom is likely to submerge into oblivion, no matter how the Scots decide to vote, its two of-age daughters, Australia and Canada, surpassing the mother country’s GDP… in the case of Australia by as much as 25 percent.

Tempted to play with projected GDP figures, for after all it is a nation’s aggregate output that counts – and not the touted per capita figures, one might come up with an Iberian-American economic super-power (a confederation of Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking nations in both the Iberian Peninsula and the Americas) that overall would be second only to China, with approximately 18 percent of the pie.

And, of course, we could also create in the same fashion a Eurasian economic block that would add Turkey, Ukraine and a few other former Soviet republics to the Russian Federation that would make geopolitical sense and combine to over 10 percent of the World GDP. Those who cannot see Turkey in league with Russia should be reminded of the great Turkish reformer, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, who if alive today might find favor in allying with Putin rather than begging second rate treatment if joining the European Union, while also continuing as a member of an aggressive US-lackey NATO. An unlikely event, I know… yet, who would have said a century ago that such great statesman and secularist, Atatürk, would come out of Salonika to remake the soul of the Ottoman Empire?

Although the US seems intent in playing the drums of war, perhaps realizing that its economic power is slowly headed for oblivion, to join the likes of Japan and the UK, American firms waving international flags don’t have the appetite for war that neocon elitists in the State Department or star-studded bellicosarians in the halls of the Pentagon have. Not at all! And here is where the feared industrial-military complex hopefully falls apart as globalist firms give their overall support to peace as a preferred alternative to the specter of a nuclear holocaust. Russia doesn’t want any military confrontation, nor does China, nor do American and European corporate entities that see no future in suicide.

Americans need not drink the kool-aid offered by John McCain and his ilk in the Pentagon, Congress or the State Department; nor should they listen to the sad sack windmill-mouthpiece they have enlisted in the White House: Barack Obama.

The post Common Sense Likely To Silence The Drums Of War – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Kuwaiti authorities have stripped five critics of their citizenship as part of a wider crackdown on people seeking reform. The Kuwaiti government should immediately restore their citizenship and end the practice.

The official Kuwait News Agency announced that citizenship had been withdrawn from the five people on June 21, 2014. A week earlier, Kuwait’s Cabinet called for the relevant authorities to crack down on people carrying out “acts aiming to undermine the country’s security and stability, bringing harm to its institutions.” Ahmed Jabr al-Shammari, owner of media outlets and one of the five, said that none of them have citizenship elsewhere, so the action has left them stateless.

“No government has the right to strip away its people’s citizenship simply because it disapproves of them, their opinions, or their actions,” said Joe Stork, deputy Middle East and North Africa director. “This is yet another downward step in Kuwait’s assault on the right to free speech.”

Al-Shammari, 50, told Human Rights Watch on August 8 that he was deprived of his Kuwaiti citizenship under parliamentary decree 185 of 2014, which targeted him and the other four individuals. He is the owner of the independent Al-Yom television station and Al-Yom newspaper. At the request of the information minister, courts had ordered both media outlets to shut down temporarily three times in May and June for defying a prosecutor-ordered media blackout about an investigation into an alleged plot by senior officials to overthrow the government.

Al-Shammari told Human Rights Watch that the parliamentary decree for revoking the five citizenships was based on the Kuwaiti Law of Nationality, 15/1959 and that authorities officially informed him that his citizenship was revoked under article 13(5).

The nationality law says:

It is permissible by a decree upon the request of the interior minister – to revoke the Kuwaiti citizenship from Kuwaitis who obtained their citizenship through the application of provisions from articles 4, 5, 6, or 8 of this law, and in the following cases: …

5- If evidence is available from competent authorities showing that he has promoted principles that will undermine the social or economic system of the country, or belongs to a foreign political party. In this case the court may also revoke the citizenship of those who obtained it from him by dependency.

The other four whose citizenship was revoked are Abdullah al-Barghash, a former leader in the opposition bloc in parliament, and three of his siblings – Sa`d, Nasr, and Nura al-Barghash. On national media outlets, the government justified the decision by accusing them of falsifying records when applying for citizenship, another provision under the nationality law. Human Rights Watch has been unable to reach them for comment.

Al-Shammari fears that the authorities may also use the decree to seek a court order to deprive his four children of their Kuwaiti nationality.

He told Human Rights Watch that the Interior Ministry had ordered him to hand in all of his official identity documents, including his passport and ID card. “I went to bed a Kuwaiti and woke stateless,” he said. “I have no idea what legal status I have now. I cannot travel, drive, move or go to the hospital. And my biggest fear is that my children may get kicked out of university.”

The following day he received official letters revoking the licenses of his media outlets, and advertising and marketing companies that he owns. He estimates that some 700 to 800 employees of these companies will lose their jobs.

Though generally citizenship revocations are not open to judicial review, al-Shammari is hoping to appeal based on a 2010 Supreme Court review of a revocation decision.

“If I really was a threat to the security of Kuwait, why would I not be brought to court, given a charge, convicted and put in jail?” he said. “If the issue is simply with the content on my channel or newspaper, why not follow procedures against either of them? I think the authorities want to send a signal to instill fear into those who express their rights of expression. They are using citizenship as a political tool, not a legal status.”

Kuwait’s Law of Nationality, 15/1959, empowers the government to revoke a person’s citizenship and deport them under certain circumstances, including obtaining citizenship through fraud, being convicted of a crime related to honor or dishonesty within 15 years of obtaining citizenship, being fired from a government job within 10 years of getting citizenship for reasons related to honor or dishonesty, if it is in the best interest of the state or its external security, or if there is evidence that the individual has promoted principles that undermine the wellbeing of the country.

The Kuwaiti law’s provisions conflict directly with the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), whose article 12 states unequivocally that, “No one shall be arbitrarily deprived of the right to enter his own country.” Kuwait has ratified the ICCPR and is bound under international law to fully implement the provisions of the treaty.

The United Nations Human Rights Committee, which provides the definitive interpretation of the ICCPR, has interpreted its article 12 to mean that no state may ban or exile its citizens on the basis of repressive domestic laws:

The reference to the concept of arbitrariness in this context is intended to emphasize that it applies to all State action, legislative, administrative, and judicial; it guarantees that even interference provided for by law should be in accordance with the provisions, aims and objectives of the Covenant and should be, in any event, reasonable in the particular circumstances. The Committee considers that there are few, if any, circumstances in which deprivation of the right to enter one’s own country could be reasonable. A State party must not, by stripping a person of nationality or by expelling an individual to a third country, arbitrarily prevent this person from returning to his or her own country.

“Kuwait is rapidly losing its reputation as one of the most rights-respecting of the Gulf states and this latest action by the authorities can only accelerate that process,” Stork said. “The government should think again, restore the citizenship rights it has withdrawn, and drop this malign policy.”

Unofficial translation of June 14, 2014 Cabinet meeting to discuss demonstrations in Kuwait

The cabinet has charged competent authorities to take all necessary measures for the implementation of His Highness’s directions to secure order and stability across Kuwait, and totally eliminate alien practices. This was during the cabinet’s weekly meeting, held at the Saif Palace and headed by Prime Minister, Sheikh Jaber Mubarak Al-Hamad Al-Subah.

The cabinet reviewed His Highness’s directions to stand firm in the face of all acts aiming to undermine the country’s security and stability, bringing harm to its institutions, with no compromise or tolerance, taking all necessary measures to eradicate those alien phenomena that run counter to the precepts of our righteous religion and the bona fide values of Kuwaiti society.

And the cabinet, fully realizing its duties as the custodian of the State’s interests, and what this entails in resolute confrontation with anything that might harm the State, its constitution or its stability, has charged the competent authorities, each in its own domain, to take all necessary measures for the implementation of these directions, stressing the following points:

That all concerned parties should emphasize the importance of the application of the law, and the taking of measures to secure order, requiring security agencies to confront lawlessness in all firmness, with no compromise in protecting citizens, private and public properties, and establishing order and security all across the land.

That the Ministry of the Interior is charged with taking all measures necessary to ensure the fulfillment of citizenship requirements according to the provisions of the Kuwaiti Law of Nationality, 15/1959, especially in connection with practices that aim at undermining stability.

That the Ministry of Social Affairs and Labor is charged with the confrontation of all societies whose objectives lie outside the scope set by the Law of Societies, and their role in raising public awareness through non-political activities, and abstaining from incitement to rioting. Those societies should be made accountable for the practice of politics in violation of the terms of their licenses, and all necessary measures should be taken in this regard.

That all media outlets are charged with their patriotic role in raising awareness, denouncing acts of rioting, and calling for peaceful expression, through the legally available channels.

In this regard, the cabinet lauded the positive, responsible role played by the men of the Ministry of Interior, headed by Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of the Interior and Acting Minister of Waqfs and Islamic Affairs, Sheikh Muhammad Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah, stressing the necessity of continuing this effort in keeping our homeland safe and secure.

The post Kuwait Strips Five Critics Of Citizenship appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Ukraine is at risk of an environmental disaster as Kiev’s army continues to bomb the Donestk region, nearly hitting its largest chemical plant that stores lethal agents, the plant’s spokesperson warned. The minimum impact zone would be at least 300 km.

For the past three weeks, the Ukrainian army has been intensely shelling Gorlovka, located in Ukraine’s Donetsk region — home to the nation’s largest chemical plant, Stirol.

“Due to the irresponsible actions of the Ukrainian army, citizens of Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus are exposed to a deadly threat from an ecological disaster on a daily basis, the size of which cannot be predicted,” Pavel Brykov, a spokesman for the plant, said in a YouTube message on Sunday.

According to Brykov, an accident at the plant could cause a toxic leak of nitrochlorobenzene – a lethal substance which, if it enters the human body, affects the liver, heart, and bone marrow, causing death.

The minimum impact of the accident would be at least 300 kilometers, Brykov said, adding that the risks of the accident are being silenced in the Ukrainian media.

Stirol is part of the OSTCHEM holding company that belongs to Ukrainian businessman Dmitry Firtash.

Earlier, Firtash claimed there is no risk of a catastrophe since there are no lethal agents stored at the plant. He added that back in May, when the shelling of the region began to intensify, the plant stopped the synthesis and processing of the colorless gas ammonia and evacuated all of its workers.

In their offensive against the eastern Ukrainian militia, Kiev troops have been using multiple-rocket launchers, such as Grad and Uragan – highly indiscriminate weapons designed for destroying enemy forces in the field. If fired at a city, their lack of precision would likely lead to multiple civilian casualties, increasing the risk of a chemical catastrophe.

Just on Thursday, a unique wooden Orthodox church burned to the ground after being hit by an artillery shell in Gorlovka.

The ongoing fighting in eastern Ukraine has already led to more than 1,300 people – both civilians and military troops – being killed in the conflict, and over 4,000 others being wounded. At the same time, around 118,000 people have been internally displaced and 740,000 others have fled to Russia.

The Stirol plant was involved in an accident that killed six people and injured 26 others a year ago, when a colorless gas ammonia was released into the air during repair work. The incident was one of the biggest in the country’s recent history.

Ukraine is also the site of the world’s worst nuclear power plant accident in history. The catastrophic nuclear disaster happened on April 26, 1986 at reactor number four of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine, which was then one of the USSR republics. The plant is located near the city of Pripyat, some 100 km north of the capital Kiev.

As a result of the explosion and fire, a huge radioactive cloud was spread into the atmosphere, covering thousands of miles of Soviet and European territories. Approximately 100,000 square kilometers of land were significantly contaminated.

Thirty-one out of the 237 people diagnosed with acute radiation sickness died within the first three months of the accident. Overall, up to 985,000 people have died as a result of the incident, mainly from cancer due caused by the radiation, according to Global Research.

The post Ukraine: ‘Chemical Threat As Shells Fall Near Donetsk Plant appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Seismic events aren’t rare occurrences on Antarctica, where sections of the frozen desert can experience hundreds of micro-earthquakes an hour due to ice deformation. Some scientists call them icequakes. But in March of 2010, the ice sheets in Antarctica vibrated a bit more than usual because of something more than 3,000 miles away: the 8.8-magnitude Chilean earthquake. A new Georgia Institute of Technology study published in Nature Geoscience is the first to indicate that Antarctica’s frozen ground is sensitive to seismic waves from distant earthquakes.

To study the quake’s impact on Antarctica, the Georgia Tech team looked at seismic data from 42 stations in the six hours before and after the 3:34 a.m. event. The researchers used the same technology that allowed them to “hear” the seismic response at large distances for the devastating 2011 magnitude 9 Japan earthquake as it rumbled through the earth. In other words, they simply removed the longer-period signals as the seismic waves spread from the distant epicenter to identify high-frequency signals from nearby sources. Nearly 30 percent (12 of the 42 stations) showed clear evidence of high-frequency seismic signals as the surface-wave arrived on Antarctica.

“We interpret these events as small icequakes, most of which were triggered during or immediately after the passing of long-period Rayleigh waves generated from the Chilean mainshock,” said Zhigang Peng, an associate professor in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences who led the study. “This is somewhat different from the micro-earthquakes and tremor caused by both Love and Rayleigh-type surface waves that traditionally occur in other tectonically active regions thousands of miles from large earthquakes.

Peng says the subtle difference is that micro-earthquakes respond to both shearing and volumetric deformation from distant events. The newly found icequakes respond only to volumetric deformation.

“Such differences may be subtle, but they tell us that the mechanism of these triggered icequakes and small earthquakes are different,” Peng added. “One is more like cracking, while the other is like a shear slip event. It’s similar to two hands passing each other.”

Some of the icequakes were quick bursts and over in less than one second. Others were long duration, tremor-like signals up to 10 seconds. They occurred in various parts of the continent, including seismic stations along the coast and near the South Pole.

The researchers found the clearest indication of induced high-frequency signals at station HOWD near the northwest corner of the Ellsworth Mountains. Short bursts occurred when the P wave hit the station, then continued again when the Rayleigh wave arrived. The triggered icequakes had very similar high waveform patterns, which indicates repeated failure at a single location, possibly by the opening of cracks.

Peng says the source locations of the icequakes are difficult to determine because there isn’t an extensive seismic network coverage in Antarctica.

“But at least some of the icequakes themselves create surface waves, so they are probably formed very close to the ice surface,” he added. “While we cannot be certain, we suspect they simply reflect fracturing of ice in the near surface due to alternating volumetric compressions and expansions as the Rayleigh waves passed through Antarctica’s frozen ice.”

Antarctica was originally not on the research team’s target list. While examining seismic stations in the Southern Hemisphere, Peng “accidently” found the triggered icequakes at a few openly available stations. He and former Georgia Tech postdoctoral student Jake Walter (now a research scientist at the Institute for Geophysics at UT Austin) then reached out to other seismologists (the paper’s four co-authors) who were in charge of deploying more broadband seismometers in Antarctica.

The post 2010 Chilean Earthquake Causes Icequakes In Antarctica appeared first on Eurasia Review.