By Noah Habeeb

Whatever global support Israel once enjoyed is slowly trickling away amid rising international opprobrium over the civilian toll Israel has exacted in Gaza.

Leaders from all corners of the world have voiced their condemnation of Israel’s actions—except, that is, leaders from the United States, where knee-jerk support for Israel is still the norm. But change seems to be on the horizon for the U.S. public, if not U.S. leaders.

To date over 1,800 Palestinians have been killed since Israel’s invasion of the strip, at least 70 percent of them civilians. Nearly 450,000 more Gazans have been displaced by the conflict. Targets of Israeli attacks have included a rehabilitation center, hospitals, dozens of mosques, and thousands of private homes.

Israel claims that it’s taken extensive measures to prevent civilian casualties. Indeed, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have at times warned civilians in advance of strikes through leaflets, text messages, and more controversially, “roof knocks”—a tactic of firing a smaller explosive ahead of a full-blown strike that has been condemned by Amnesty International.

But when there is nowhere to flee, such warnings are nothing more than cruel prophecies. The Gaza strip is 25 miles long and a few miles across—roughly the size of Detroit, but with twice the population—and its borders are sealed tight by Israel and Egypt. To make matters worse, an Israeli-imposed “buffer zone” has left 44 percent of Gaza off-limits to Gazans, who risk death if they remain or attempt to return to their homes. Even UN evacuation shelters have been bombed by the IDF.

Given the extent to which civilians have been made to suffer in this conflict, it’s no surprise that the UN Human Rights chief has suggested Israel may be guilty of war crimes.

That’s an increasingly popular opinion among world governments, who have lined up in opposition to the latest violence.

No Warmth in the Developing World

While some developing countries have close relationships with Israel due to its economic support or development programs, most of the developing world is overwhelmingly in solidarity with Palestine.

In Latin America the trend has been particularly acute. Ecuador protested the recent violence in Gaza by recalling its ambassador to Israel on July 17^th. El Salvador, Chile, Peru, and Brazil subsequently followed suit, with Chile—a country with a significant Palestinian population—even deciding to end free-trade negotiations with Israel.

At the most recent Mercosur trade bloc meeting, Brazil was joined by Argentina, Uruguay, and Venezuela in a statement to “energetically condemn the disproportionate use of force by the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip, which in the majority affects civilians, including children and women.”

In Africa, South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) has long identified with the Palestinian cause. During the apartheid era, Israel supported South Africa’s racist government, earning the ire of the ANC and its allies. Bishop Desmond Tutu, the country’s largest trade union (COSATU), and the ANC have all described Israel as an apartheid state. The ANC in parliament has demanded the recall of South Africa’s ambassador to Israel and the expulsion of the Israeli ambassador to South Africa.

The trend is also playing out in the Middle East, where there was never much love lost with Israel in the first place. Israel’s actions in Gaza have only deepened the fissures between Israel and Turkey, a NATO member that was a close ally of Israel for decades—until the 2010 Gaza flotilla raid, when Israeli commandos boarded a Turkish-flagged humanitarian flotilla bound for Gaza and killed eight Turkish nationals and one Turkish-American dual citizen.

In response to Operation Protective Edge, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan donned a keffiyeh in parliament, declared diplomatic normalization with Israel impossible, and claimed that Israel’s “barbarism has surpassed even Hitler’s”—an overblown remark, yet one that highlights the degree to which relations between the two countries have deteriorated.

The West Inches Away

Israel is also losing support from its traditional allies in the West.

In Europe, limited Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) initiatives are gaining ground. Already the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy have warned companies against doing business in Israel’s illegal West Bank settlements.

New EU bank guidelines also prohibit dealings with Israeli entities in settlements. And in response to the recent crisis, the leftist parties of Norway have endorsed a call for an official boycott of Israeli goods produced in the occupied territories.

Israeli officials are beginning to worry about the potential economic costs of BDS. Some are concerned exports could decrease by $5.7 billion with even a limited European boycott.

In the United States, the bedrock of international support for Israel, the “special relationship” is still strong. But while the government has been as unconditionally supportive of Israel as ever, U.S. civil society is undergoing a significant shift.

The change is especially pronounced in the American Jewish community. Young Jews are less religious and less attached to Israel than their parents. According to the Pew Forum, only 38 percent of young Jews believe Israel is making a “sincere effort” at peace, and only 17 percent believe the settlements benefit Israeli security. Groups like the centrist J Street and the more progressive Jewish Voice for Peace now play important roles in shaping Jewish opinions on Israel, eroding the monopoly once enjoyed by the more hardline American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).

Although polls still show that a vast majority of Americans sympathize with Israel over the Palestinians, a shift in media coverage has illuminated the perspectives of Palestinians more than ever. The rise of social media has allowed for greater dissemination of Palestinian narratives and alternative coverage—like the story of Tariq Abu Khdeir.

A 15-year-old Palestinian-American boy, Abu Khdeir was beaten and arrested by police in Jerusalem after his cousin Mohammed was murdered by young Israeli extremists. As an American, Abu Khdeir has received attention for a story that otherwise might not have been told.

The gradual change in media coverage may explain recent U.S. polling that shows greater sympathy for Palestinians and lower approval of Israel than in the past. Recent Pew Research Center polling shows that among 18-29-year-old Americans, more blame Israel than blame Hamas for the violence. These findings echo an earlier study, which showed that Americans under 50 are much more likely than their older counterparts to sympathize with Palestinians.

The increasing popularity of the BDS movement is further evidence of changes in civil society. BDS has gone from a fringe movement to a mainstream campaign, with the debate playing out on the front page of The Nation and reverberating throughout the foundation world. Both the Presbyterian and Methodist Churches have passed resolutions divesting from numerous companies connected to the occupation, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has divested from G4S, a British company that has provided security services to Israeli settlements and prisons.

”I Can’t Hear You”

These incremental shifts in U.S. civil society and popular opinion, in concert with global opposition to Israel’s actions, will eventually pose a serious threat to Israeli impunity—but not until the U.S. government revises its current policy of providing nearly unconditional support for Israel. And that can’t be done until progressive voices are loud enough to compete with the amplified pro-Israel lobby.

As Peter Beinart explained in a telling anecdote of a Jewish American friend’s brief conversation with President Obama:

My friend told the president that many American Jews were unhappy with Israel’s direction and open to American pressure aimed at changing it. “I can’t hear you,” Obama replied. My friend began repeating himself, but Obama cut him off. “You don’t understand,” the president repeated, more slowly and with emphasis: “I … can’t … hear … you.”

But soon, dissent may be too loud to ignore. The increasing plurality of opinions within the Jewish community, the changing media landscape, and the growing success of BDS mean it is only a matter of time.

Noah Habeeb is a contributor to Foreign Policy In Focus.

The post A US Shift Away From Israel? – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The Knights of Columbus have established a matching fund to assist Christians and other religious minorities facing severe persecution or displacement in Iraq and nearby countries.

“The unprovoked and systematic persecution and violent elimination of Middle East Christians, as well as other minority groups, especially in Iraq, has created an enormous humanitarian crisis,” Supreme Knight Carl Anderson said Aug. 12.

“It has shocked the conscience of the world that people are systematically being purged from the region where their families have lived for millennia – simply for their faith,” Anderson continued.

“It is imperative that we stand in solidarity with them in defense of the freedom of conscience, and provide them with whatever relief we can.”

In addition to an initial pledge of $500,000, the Catholic fraternal organization will match another $500,000 in donations from the public.

Militants with the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, known as ISIL or ISIS, have seized large areas of Iraqi territory. They took the country’s largest Christian city, Qaraqosh, on the night of Aug. 6, forcing tens of thousands to flee.

The militants have ordered Christians and other minorities to convert, pay a tax known as a jizya, or be killed.

Anderson cited Pope Francis’ request that the world pray and support those affected by the “terrible persecution.”

“We are asking our members, and all people of good will, to pray for those persecuted and support efforts to assist them by donating to this fund,” the head of the Knights of Columbus said.

Donations may be made through the webpage www.kofc.org/Iraq or via check or money orders sent to K of C Christian Refugee Relief, Knights of Columbus Charities, P.O. Box 1966, New Haven, CT 06509-1966.

The Knights of Columbus said that 100 percent of all donations will be used for humanitarian assistance.

Knights of Columbus Charities, Inc. is a 501(c)(3) organization and donations are tax-deductible.

There are more than 1.8 million members of the Knights of Columbus in councils worldwide. The fraternal order has responded to disasters including the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the U.S., typhoons in the Philippines, hurricanes and tornados in the U.S., floods in Mexico, and tsunamis in Indonesia and Japan.

The Knights of Columbus have historically supported oppressed Christians, such as during the persecution of the Catholic Church in Mexico in the 1920s. The Knights provided humanitarian assistance for victims of persecution and worked to raise international awareness about the situation there.

Last year, the Knights provided more than $170 million and 70 million hours to charitable causes.

The post Knights Of Columbus To Match Donations To Aid Persecuted Iraqis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The Vatican is urging Muslim leaders to denounce the “barbarity” of the Islamic State’s attacks against Christians and other minorities in Iraq, saying their credibility is on the line, the Associated Press reports.

The Vatican’s Pontifical Council for Interreligious Dialogue, the main Vatican office that deals with the Muslim world, said Tuesday, Aug 12, that the forced expulsions and massacres of Christians and minority Yazidis shamed humanity and couldn’t be justified by any religion.

The office said the “unspeakable criminal acts” — the beheading, crucifying and hanging of bodies in public places, the “barbaric practice of infibulation,” the abduction of women and girls as spoils of war, and the destruction of Christian religious symbols — required a “clear and courageous stance on the part of religious leaders, especially Muslims.”

“If not, what credibility will religions, their followers and their leaders have?” the statement warned.

Pope Francis has stepped up his denunciation of the attacks against Christians. He has also sent a personal envoy, Cardinal Fernando Filoni, to the region to show solidarity with the victims, provide them with emergency funding and meet with Iraqi and Kurdish leaders. The Fides missionary news agency said Filoni was heading to Iraq via Jordan on Tuesday.

The post Vatican Urges Muslim Leaders To Denounce ‘Barbarity’ In Iraq appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Colonel Mohamed al-Suissi, chief of police in Tripoli, was shot dead by masked gunmen in the Libyan capital’s eastern suburbs. According to international media reports, two men with the Colonel were abducted by the assailants.

Al-Suissi had attended a meeting of the Tajura municipal council in the eastern suburbs and was on his way back to Tripoli city centre when the attack occurred. The Libyan Lana state news agency confirmed the death of the police chief shortly after arrival at a nearby medical facility.

The assassination of the top officer comes at a moment of mounting tension and chaos, due to ongoing fighting between rival militias over control of the Tripoli airport. A general situation of anarchy and violence that is the results of dozens of armed militias formed by former rebels that fought to topple the regime of Muammar Gheddafi in 2011, which the current authorities are unable to control.

Despite the army and police being constantly targeted in the eastern city of Benghazi, it is rare in Tripoli.

The post Libya: Tripoli Police Chief Assassinated appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Ongoing ceasefire talks are slowly beginning to take shape, sources in Cairo told Ma’an, although several outstanding issues need to be finalized to produce a permanent agreement.

Palestinian sources close to the talks said Tuesday that six points have been agreed upon while a further five need to be resolved.

Israel has agreed to increase the daily number of truckloads of goods to Gaza from 250 to 600 via the Kerem Shalom and Nahal Oz crossings, the sources said.

Israel has also agreed to allow money transfers from the Palestinian Authority to Gaza to cover the salaries of former Hamas civil servants.

The designated fishing zone will also be gradually expanded to 12 nautical miles and some 500 permits will be issued monthly to allow Gazans to use the Erez crossing.

Egypt has agreed to open the Rafah crossing in coordination with PA presidential guards, who would form a 1000-strong presence on the crossing and borders with Gaza.

The sources said that Israel has also agreed to release the fourth and final group of pre-Oslo prisoners.

The remaining issues to be resolved are the infrastructural issues of an airport and seaport in Gaza. Israel suggested postponing the issue of an airport until final status negotiations, but said international actors should prepare plans for how a seaport would operate.

No progress has been made on the issue of demilitarization or a safe passage between the West Bank and Gaza.

The sources said that Israel also wanted to discuss the case of Israeli soldiers’ remains being held by Hamas, but the Palestinian delegation argued that it should be addressed at a later date.

Israeli economy minister Naftali Bennet slammed news of progress in the talks, calling the transfer of salaries to former Hamas employees “dangerous,” Israeli media reported.

Israel’s offensive on Gaza has left nearly 2,000 Palestinians dead, the vast majority of them civilians, in addition to 67 people on the Israeli side, most of them soldiers.

The post Limited Breakthrough In Cairo Ceasefire Negotiations appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Farm products have taken over from metal-based goods as the favorite choice of North Korean smugglers crossing over the border to peddle contraband in China, sources say, even as Pyongyang steps up its border patrols.

A source in North Korea’s North Hamgyeong province bordering China said increased security had forced smugglers to carry goods such as medicinal herbs and wild edible greens, which are easier to conceal than the bulkier metal goods, including scrap products.

“People can’t access the border with the usual smuggled goods, such as [goods made from] copper, aluminum, and scrap iron,” he told RFA’s Korean Service.

“Instead of these goods, smugglers are collecting medicinal herbs and wild edible greens” which are also highly valued in China, the source said.

Herbs and wild greens are key foreign currency earners for the North Korean regime, which has required residents to collect them for sale to officially sanctioned trading companies that resell them at marked up prices to buyers in China, the source said.

Smuggling herbs and edible greens has become so popular because organizations relying on the farm products to earn foreign currency have had problems meeting their monthly export quotas due to increased border security, the source said.

North Korean residents also prefer to sell to the smugglers after gathering herbs and edible greens because they will pay more money for them than state sanctioned traders and are less stringent about the quality of the goods.

Sources said that while border controls had been relaxed during the annual mass mobilization for spring planting in May, when students and government workers are sent to work on farms in a push to meet planting targets, the North had recently stepped up security again.

The number of guards stationed along at least two lines of defense has been increased, including at checkpoints built between North Korean villages and the border meant to control the movement of area residents, said a source in Yanggang province, bordering China.

The source said that a large number of military reservists had been called into active duty, making security at the border “more tightened than before,” referring to the more relaxed May mobilization period.

South Korean goods

A second source in Yanggang told RFA that smugglers had originally limited the goods they dealt in to items such as metal-based goods and illegal drugs, which are heavily restricted by the North Korean regime.

“But now, smuggled items have completely changed to goods which are not controlled by the North Korean government,” he said.

North Korean smugglers are also becoming more cautious in bringing back goods from China which they buy using money obtained from selling their contraband.

In May and June, smugglers were trading goods across the border for highly sought after items such as gasoline, South Korean ramen noodles and South Korean sanitary pads, which they would bring back to North Korea to resell, the source said.

More recently, he said, the smugglers are only taking Chinese yuan as payment because it is easier to bring back cash following the tightening of the border.

Goods from South Korea—including clothing, cosmetics, electronics, chocolate snacks called Chocopie, and even DVDs of South Korean soap operas—trade briskly on the black market in North Korea.

Impoverished North Korea relies on China for vital economic aid and trade.

According to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency, bilateral trade volume between North Korea and China came to U.S. $6.54 billion, accounting for 89.1 percent of the North’s overall trade in 2013.

Reported by Sung-hui Moon for RFA’s Korean Service. Translated by Jina Lee. Written in English by Joshua Lipes.

The post North Korean Smugglers Shift Strategy Amid Tightened Controls On China Border appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Kenan Guluzade

Analysts say that Russian president Vladimir Putin is trying to position Moscow as the key to peace in Nagorny Karabakh by hosting talks between the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents this week.

The Sochi summit on August 10 was the first time Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev and his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sargsyan have met face-to-face since the recent upsurge in violence around Karabakh.

Russia is one of the three co-chairs of the OSCE’s Minsk Group, the mediating body on Karabakh. However, Putin did not involve representatives of France and the United States, the other two co-chairs of the tripartite group.

“We respect all international formats and will continue to work with our colleagues,” Putin said in Sochi. “But we also think that we have particularly close relations and a deep, shared history, which allows us to exchange opinions openly about where we are, and about what we need to do to move towards resolving the problems that the past has bequeathed us.”

War broke out around Karabakh at the end of the Soviet period, when its Armenian majority demanded to secede from Azerbaijan. This ended in a 1994 ceasefire which left Karabakh outside Baku’s control, but no final peace deal has been reached.

Clashes have continued both on the state frontier between Azerbaijan and Armenia and along the “line of control” which forms a front-line boundary around Karabakh.

The last month has been one of the bloodiest in the last 20 years, with dozens of people dead and wounded. In the first five days of August, Azerbaijan’s defence ministry said it had lost 14 men, bringing the total for the year up to 27. Armenian forces said they lost five men in the first days of August. Most observers think both sides are understating the number of casualties. (See also Azeri-Armenian Conflict Fears as Death Toll Rises.)

Ahead of the tripartite summit, this reporter was among media representatives invited to visit the front line by the Azerbaijani army.

It was clear that the military wanted journalists to see how local residents and soldiers alike were anxious for the army to re-launch hostilities. All those who spoke to IWPR were keen to see Azerbaijan recapture Karabakh.

IWPR’s reporter was introduced to two soldiers who had the chance to go on leave, one for his sister’s wedding, the other for the wedding of his brother. Both of them had refused to go, wanting to stay at the front, their officers said.

The journalists were also taken to the wake for Garyaqdi Ahmedov, one of the soldiers killed on the frontline.

The soldier’s father Eldar Kishi said his son had said, the day before his death, “Dad, you will be proud that your son gave his life for his country.”

Troops said that the daylight hours were normally quiet, and that fighting tended to take place under cover of darkness.

Although no practical steps to ease the conflict were announced in Sochi, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said the talks had been successful, with the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia re-affirming their commitment to dialogue.

“The president of Russia wanted to know whether the two sides want to end the Nagorny Karabakh conflict, and what their expectations are,” commented Sargsyan after the talks.

“This problems demands resolution,” Aliyev told Putin at the summit. “This has gone on for a long time, and I hope that your personal participation in this process will give a new stimulus to the talks process.”

The Karabakh crisis comes as Russia finds itself increasingly under pressure over the separatist conflict in Ukraine.

Although Russia has traditionally been a close ally of Armenia, it has also moved closer to Azerbaijan in recent years, agreeing to sell it billions of dollars worth of arms. (See Yerevan Angry at Russian Arms Sales to Baku.)

“Russia continues to play an important role in the region and will be crucial to how the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict develops,” argued Natiq Jafarl, secretary of the opposition REAL political movement in Azerbaijan. “Today Russia, which is facing serious pressure from the West because of the war in Ukraine, is trying to improve its image and show the world that it is the only guarantor of peace in the region.”

However, Asim Mollazade, chairman of Azerbaijan’s Party for Democratic Reforms, which tends to vote with the government, was unimpressed by Putin’s attempt to put himself in the centre of the picture.

“We must put all our efforts into foreign policy, so as to persuade the international community of the need to impose sanctions on Armenia,” he said. “It’s clear that it is pointless to waste time on Russia as a mediator.”

Kenan Guluzade is editor of bakupost.az in Azerbaijan. This article was published at IWPR’s CRS Issue 748.

The post Putin Mediates Azeri-Armenian Talks appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Canadian authorities are discussing the possible use of experimental Ebola vaccine in Africa with the United States and the World Health Organization, according to Reuters.

Greg Taylor, an official with the Canadian Health Ministry said a limited number of vaccine doses that had been developed in the government labs could be delivered to Africa with the WHO consent. Canada has a stock of 1,500 doses, and will need four to six months in order to produce a larger quantity, Taylor added.

Canada’s Health Minister Rona Ambrose said the government could donate 800 to 1,000 doses. She said her nation was doing everything in its powers to address the deadly Ebola outbreak, including giving access to its experimental drugs.

On Tuesday, the WHO said that, given the circumstances, it was ethical to “offer unproven interventions” to patients infected with the lethal Ebola virus. In order to understand the safety and efficacy of these treatments the organization urged medical practitioners to collect and share all data generated.

The post Canada May Send Untested Ebola Vaccine To Africa appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The Tunisian government’s suspension of more than 150 organizations across the country for alleged links to terrorism was disproportionate and arbitrary. On July 22, 2014, a government spokesperson said the authorities had issued suspension notices to 157 associations. The government has also closed two radio stations, on similar grounds.

The authorities ordered the associations to cease their activities in the wake of an attack by armed men on July 16 that killed 15 government soldiers near Tunisia’s border with Algeria. Three days later, Prime Minister Mehdi Jomaa announced that the authorities were taking immediate steps to close down radio and TV stations that propagated hate speech and to suspend unauthorized mosques and any associations that it deemed to be linked to terrorism. Tunisia’s September 2011 law on associations, however, says that only judges have the authority to order the suspension or dissolution of an association.

“The Tunisian authorities have good reason to fight terrorism, but they shouldn’t be trampling on rights protected by the constitution and the law and bypassing the judiciary,” said Eric Goldstein, deputy Middle East and North Africa director.

Human Rights Watch obtained details of the suspension notices for 12 associations, all of which received a standard form titled “Decision to suspend activity” from the local governor. The notices cite law no. 52 of June 13, 1975, especially articles 10 and 11, as well as the decree law relating to associations and ministerial order 5183 of November 2013.

Articles 10 and 11 give governors oversight authority over public bodies and organizations that receive public funds, and responsibility for maintaining public order and security in the governorates they administer. The 12 suspension notices obtained by Human Rights Watch were issued by five governors – from Sfax, Nabeul, Monstrir, Jendouba, and Tunis.

But the procedures used breached decree law no. 2011-88, adopted by the transitional government in September 2011. That law replaced earlier repressive legislation that criminalized participation in officially unrecognized associations. It had been hailed as an important step toward bringing Tunisian national law into line with Tunisia’s obligation under international human rights law to uphold freedom of association.

The 2011 law requires associations to “respect the principles of the rule of law, democracy, plurality, transparency, equality and human rights” as these are set out in international conventions that Tunisia has ratified, and prohibits incitement to violence, hatred, intolerance, and discrimination based on religion, gender, or region.

It also says that the judiciary has exclusive authority to determine that an association should be suspended or dissolved. This involves a three-stage process, under which the association initially receives a warning, followed by a 30-day suspension through a government application to the Court of First Instance in Tunis. After that period, if the association fails to correct alleged infractions, the court can order its dissolution.

The government followed this procedure in May, before the Court of First Instance which ordered the National League for the Protection of the Revolution, a group accused of attacking journalists, politicians, and others, to suspend its activities. Other legislation still in effect, such as the 1975 law, does not override these procedures or allow the government to suspend or dissolve associations without recourse to the courts.

Tunisia’s constitution, adopted on January 27, 2014, guarantees in article 35 “the freedom to establish political parties, unions, and associations.” It provides, in article 49, that no limitations may be placed on the exercise of guaranteed rights and freedoms unless they are established by law and do not compromise the essence of the rights, and only when they are “necessary” to protect certain legitimate aims, and proportionate.

Article 22 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), ratified by Tunisia in 1969, allows no restrictions on freedom of association other than those prescribed by law and “necessary in a democratic society” to protect national security, public safety, public order, public health or morals, or the rights and freedoms of others.

The African Charter on Human and People’s Rights, which Tunisia ratified in 1983, also protects the right to free association.

In his 2012 thematic report, the UN special rapporteur on the rights to freedom of peaceful assembly and of association stated that: “The suspension and the involuntarily dissolution of an association, are the severest types of restrictions on freedom of association. As a result, it should only be possible when there is a clear and imminent danger resulting in a flagrant violation of national law, in compliance with international human rights law. It should be strictly proportional to the legitimate aim pursued and used only when softer measures would be insufficient.”

“The Tunisian authorities have taken a step too far with this rash of suspensions,” Goldstein said. “They should think again, lift these suspension notices immediately, and use the proper procedures established by law to go after any group that is truly involved in inciting violence.”

The post Tunisia: Suspension Of Associations Arbitrary, Says HRW appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Eduardo Campos, a prominent presidential candidate in Brazil, and six other people were killed in a plane crash in the southeast of the country, local media reported.The small aircraft came down onto houses in the city of Santos.

All seven people on board the plane died in the crash, Agencia Brasil reported, citing officials from Campos’ Brazilian Socialist Party.

The aircraft went down in a residential area near a school of the port city of Santos, located 70km south-east of Sao Paulo.

nitially, Santos firefighters said there were at least 10 people injured, according to online news portal G1. Five people have been reportedly rushed to hospital from the crash site, but a hospital official could not provide any details of their condition, Reuter’s reported.

According to the Brazilian Air Force, the aircraft had taken off from Rio de Janeiro’s domestic airport and was heading to the city of Guaruja, near Santos.

Campos, 49, who was on board the plane, was the leader of the left-of-center Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) and is set to challenge President Dilma Rousseff in a presidential poll set for next year.

According to officials from the Brazilian Air Force, air traffic controllers lost contact with the aircraft after it failed to land in Guaruja because of bad weather. Locals have said that it was overcast and raining when the crash happened.

Some reports have stated the aircraft was a helicopter, while others say it was a Cessna 560XL, a small type of private jet.

Campos was considered both a modern manager and an old fashioned boss and had been a successful governor of the poor, northeastern state of Pernambuco. Some of the changes he introduced included attracting private investment, bringing private managers into state hospitals and putting some schools on an eight hour day, rather than the normal four-hour shifts common in Brazil.

Campos had about 10 percent of votes for the upcoming poll, according to opinion polls. Rousseff was leading with 36 percent and Senator Aecio Neves had about 20 percent. It is likely the presidential campaign will be postponed for a period of mourning.

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff has cancelled all campaign activities for three days, according to her Worker’s Party.

The country also took a slight knock on the financial markets because of the crash, with Brazil’s main stock index losing as much as two percent, which then rallied to about 1 percent.

The post Brazil Presidential Candidate Among 7 Killed In Airplane Crash appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Iran’s supreme leader on Wednesday dismissed the value of direct talks with the U.S., his first comments touching on meetings that officials from the Islamic Republic had with Americans dating back to secret talks that began in 2012, the Associated Press reported.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has final say over all state matters in Iran, did say that nuclear talks with world powers over Tehran’s nuclear program will continue.

Addressing Foreign Ministry officials Wednesday, Khamenei criticized the U.S., saying direct talks with its diplomats didn’t help reduce sanctions or decrease its animosity toward Tehran.

“Some pretended that if we sit down with Americans at the negotiating table, many of the problems will be resolved. We knew that won’t be the case but developments in the past year proved this reality once again,” Iranian state television quoted Khamenei as saying. “Americans not only didn’t reduce animosity but increased sanctions. They say these are not new sanctions but in fact they are new. Talks about sanctions didn’t bear any benefits.”

Khamenei called ties and negotiations with U.S. harmful outside of very specific cases. He did not elaborate, according to the AP.

Khamenei said he supported Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and his nuclear negotiation team.

“We don’t ban the continuation of nuclear talks and the job that Dr. Zarif and his friends began and have moved forward properly,” Khamenei said. But “sitting down and talking to Americans has absolutely no effect on reducing their animosity and it’s fruitless.”

The post Iran’s Khamenei Dismisses Value Of Direct Talks With US appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By N Manoharan

Should India be worried about the outbreak of Ebola virus in Western Africa that is more than 9000 km away? Is the situation so alarming? What it Ebola all about? What are the counter-measures required?

In an increasingly globalised world, no distance is far away. It is a matter of few hours by direct flight. The virus has been spreading fast. Thankfully, it is not an airborne disease. It is however communicable. Since the first case of outbreak reported in February 2014 in Guinea, the disease has spread to Sierra Leone, Liberia and recently to Nigeria, all along the West African coast. The main vector is the traveller, both within and outside the continent. Saudi Arabia has reported a case of an infected person, a returnee from Sierra Leone. The US has airlifted two of its infected citizens; Spain had flown an affected priest who has since passed. Usually an inland phenomenon, it is intriguing why the Ebola virus is spreading along the coast this time. The current outbreak has so far claimed over 900 lives, in addition to 2000 infected; more deadly than all the hitherto Ebola outbreaks. The cause for worry is the fact that the Ebola disease has neither a vaccine nor curative medicine; once infected there is only a 10 per cent chance of survival.

The disease took its name from the Ebola River, the site of the first outbreak in 1976 in the Democratic Republic of Congo (then Zaire). Genus Ebolavirus is one of three members of the filovirus family (the other two being Marburg Virus and Cueva Virus). Interestingly, Ebola Virus comprises five distinct species: Bundibugyo ebolavirus (BDBV), Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV), Sudan ebolavirus (SUDV), Reston ebolavirus (RESTV) and Taï Forest ebolavirus (TAFV). The present outbreak is EBOV, considered the most dangerous of all. The incubation period is 21 days.

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), symptoms of the disease include the sudden onset of fever, intense weakness, muscle pain, headache and sore throat followed by vomiting, diarrhoea, rash, impaired kidney and liver function, and in some cases, both internal and external bleeding. Patients report low white blood cell and platelet counts and elevated liver enzymes. These symptoms are broadly similar to one or the other diseases like malaria, typhoid fever, shigellosis, cholera, leptospirosis, plague, rickettsiosis, relapsing fever, meningitis, hepatitis and other viral haemorrhagic fevers. This makes diagnosis all the more difficult.

Ebola is a zoonotic disease transmitted to people by wild animals or by other infected patients. Fruit bats are considered Ebola’s ‘reservoir host’, in which a pathogen or virus lives inconspicuously without causing symptoms. That means the geographic distribution of inhabitation of fruit bats is prone to Ebola. Ebola is introduced into the human population through close contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected animals. Ebola then spreads in the community through human-to-human transmission, with infection resulting from direct contact (through broken skin or mucous membranes) with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and indirect contact with environments contaminated with such fluids. Burial ceremonies in which mourners have direct contact with the body of the deceased person can also play a role in the transmission of Ebola.

The outbreak is more concerning for India because of its increasing footprints in Africa. Nearly 50,000 Indian citizens are working in the affected West African countries alone. They range from businessmen, labourers, professionals and peacekeepers who travel back home frequently. India-Africa trade is about USD 35 billion. Oil is an important component of the trade, especially from Nigeria, Ghana, Equatorial Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire and Sudan, which are Ebola-prone countries.

India has stepped up preventive measures like screening and tracking of passengers originating or transiting from the region and travel advisory to defer non-essential travel to Africa, and rightly so. But this is not enough. All transit destinations like Dubai need to be alerted; flights and passengers from these transits should be screened. Maldives has already issued similar health alerts. Sri Lanka needs to follow as Colombo airport is a major travel hub. Oil-tankers and other merchant vessels have to be sanitised adequately. It is also important to raise awareness among the common man on the risk factors. Thorough cooking of animal products like milk and meat is advisable. Then, there are protective measures that require to be adopted by people closer to the patients like avoiding close physical contacts, wearing gloves and appropriate personal protective equipment when taking care of ill patients at home, regular hand washing with disinfectant after visiting patients, and prompt and safe cremation of those died of the disease. If ignored, consequences can be catastrophic in terms of lives, socio-economic disruption and spread to other countries. The longer the outbreak in West Africa persists, the more the chances for the Ebola virus to mutate and adapt. That is the main worry in the long-run.

N Manoharan
Fellow, National Maritime Foundation (NMF), New Delhi

The post Ebola: Concerns For India – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Bhaskar Roy

The old cold war between the US and the Soviet Union, or the NATO and the Warsaw Pact countries, had some clear lines of division. China gradually moved from the anti-US camp to the anti-Soviet comp and in the course maximised its benefits, proving self-interest and not ideology was the essence.

It fell from grace with the US and the west following the bloody crack down on student demonstrators in June, 1989 at the Tienanmen Square. Ignoring western sanctions, India continued with normal relations with China. It was the Nehrurian policy of third world solidarity from one angle.

Or that, India was not in a position to antagonize China. The 1962 defeat in the border war with China had eroded India’s confidence. The only task Indian strategist were concerns with was how to avoid another border war with China, and resolve the China-India border issue.

During the cold war India tried to maintain its traditional non-aligned position, although it had to fight two wars with Pakistan, one in 1965 and the other in 1971. In 1971, the US supported Pakistan, but China was cautious enough to decline US National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger’s plea to move the People Liberation Army (PLA) on Indian borders. Mao Zedong was particularly apprehensive that if China mobilized its troops to the India border Japan may take the opportunity to seize some maritime territories claimed by China. This was the first time when non-aligned India was forced enter into a quasi military agreement with the Soviet union under the Indo-Soviet Friendship Treaty to counter US pressure.

Otherwise, India generally walked the middle line. American strategists, however, still believe that India was in the Soviet camp. India’s socialistic philosophy still rankle the US state department, the White House, the Pentagon and the CIA. India’s political philosophy may change to creative  capitalism under the new NDA government headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

There is, however, a fundamental difference between the old cold war and the new one evolving. There is no Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD), though China nuclear arsenal especially its delivery system is becoming more sophisticated and accurate and can hit US targets. In the old cold war there were two definite camps. In the new cold war adversaries and competitors are interdependent, with other powers either oscillating between the two camps or maintaining strategic ambivalence. In the last cold war the two adversaries had European minds, where as in the new cold war there in an oriental mind of 5000 years of warfare of a very different kind of psychological intrigues. Ideological differences between the two remain, but not pronounced.

To be sure this generation is not going to suffer nuclear Armageddon. For some, however, a new entrant will be a “succubus” syndrome of old ideologies of capitalism and socialism giving way to a new dictatorship.

It was correctly predicted that the 21^st century would belong to the Asia Pacific Region (APR). This was in terms of economic development led by the region from which all contributors would benefit. Following Senior Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s policy of “reform and opening up” and redefining classical socialism for China as “socialism with Chinese characteristics”, it was the market that dictated China under strong control of the communist party.

Since then China’s development was spectacular, with double digit growth for almost two decades. It is immaterial at what cost, human and environmental, this was achieved. The fact is that China is about to overtake, according some forecasts, the economy of the US in gross terms. Of course in per capita terms China is way down the scale.

For decades, China was content to have US military presence in the Asia Pacific region or western pacific. The US not only acted as a buffer to Soviet/Russian attempt to make a major presence in the region. Equally, if not more, it was Japan that China was concerned about. It believed the US presence would compel Tokyo to remain within its post-war peaceful constitution dictated basically by the US. Beijing was still haunted by the two defeats it suffered at the hands of the Japanese.

Peace and stability in the region was maintained for four decades till China became economically and militarily strong enough to cast aside Deng Xiaoping’s advice “hide your strength, bide your time” and demonstrate its power to the world, especially to the neighbours.

China’s behaviour became more assertive after 2008 over its territorial claims in the South China Sea and East China Sea. It has certain “core” issues over which changes in leadership have no real effect. Only tactics and intensity can adjust according to the prevailing regional and global ambience. Among them territorial claim is one.

China has successfully sold the idea to many foreigners that it has never colonized any country and will never do so. One has to go back in history to have a look at the reasons. Admiral Zeng He, the greatest sailor of China had intentions to colonize parts of Africa. But his expeditions were cancelled because the Emperor needed the money to build against Japan. At the same time Tibet and Xinjiang were never Chinese territory, and they were grabbed through military power. China had fought Japan (1894-95) to take over Korea but lost. Manchukuo was aggrandized by China.

It appears modern China has learnt from the collapse of ancient and modern colonial powers. If a power stretches out too far its support to its colonies weaken, and major upheavals forces it to withdraw. It happened with the Roman Empire as it did with Britain- it used to be said the ‘sun never sets on the British Empire’. What China did was to incrementally take over weak neighboring areas like Tibet, Xinjiang and others. Although it has “resolved” boundary issues with Russia and contiguous Central Asian states, it still holds that a lot of its territory was lost to “unequal treaties” when China was weak, and still remain unrecovered. Most of its claims in the South China Sea and East China Sea are absurd and hence, force is very much an option.

The first signs from a section in China demanding China should control own Asian territory was noticed between 2002 and 2004. An idea put forth by a Chinese scholar was China should naturally dominate the region between a vertical “west line” in the Middle East and vertical “East Line” in the Asia Pacific region. Countries within the two lines are expected to be China’s satellites or tributaries. Naturally, the theory expects China claimed territories return to Chinese territory. The Indian Ocean is included within these two lines, suggesting Beijing’s dominant position in matters to relating to the ocean.

A map, known as “The New Chinese Map” issued in 1938 by the Ministry of Interior for Elementary Schools, brought to focus by Geoff Wade gives more insight into Chinese claims. It may be kept in mind that the Chinese Communist Party and KMT (based in Taiwan) are one in agreement on territorial claims. The 1938 map was also called the “map of shame” by the Republican Government, shows areas “torn away from China” by imperialist, European and Japan, explains Wade, who is a visiting fellow at the college of Asia and Pacific, Australian National University.

The lost territories include the Russian Far East, the Ryukyus, Taiwan, the South China Sea, Korea (both north and South), Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, the Malay Peninsula and Singapore, Myanmar, Nepal, parts of Pakistan and India and most of Central Asia. These claims have never been discarded by the Chinese government but only not emphasized till now. They can be brought up at anytime of China’s choosing Mind boggling yes, but not superficial.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has made it clear that China wants to resolve territorial issues peacefully, but if compelled, is not afraid of using force.

Wade also exposed last year a new Chinese book entitled “China is not Afraid –New Threats to National Security and our Strategic Response”. Wade felt that the book was a part of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) strategy to boost the morale of domestic constituencies, both military and civilian.

In this context, it may be noticed that China has moved from “hide and bide” to “show and tell”. Reports in the Chinese official media detailing advancement in armament production like that DF-21D aircraft carrier killer missile, J-20 stealth aircraft, multiple warhead ballistic missiles which can hit three US cities and others, apart from promoting confidence and pride among domestic constituencies, are also meant for South China Sea neighbours that reliance on the US to stand up to China would be futile.

The Chinese leaders are opening more to their public the nation’s territorial claims. The vertical map on the Spratly Island claims was for this very purpose. The danger in raising nationalism on territorial issues could create immense pressure on the leadership to act.

By 2010 China felt that it was strong enough to establish its own “Monroe Doctrine”. But it wanted in a manner, US blessings. A senior Chinese official indicated off the table to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that Washington accept the South China Sea as China’s “core interest” that is, South China Sea was Chinese sovereign territory, and China would accept USA’s domination elsewhere. Clinton declined the proposal. The US replied with its position that it was in America’s national interest to have the sea lanes of South China Sea open and free for navigation.

At another official podium at the Shangri-la dialogue at Singapore this April, (2014) China’s Defencse Minister Gen. Chang Wanguan retorted to US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel that China would make “no compromise, no trading” in the fight for China’s “territorial sovereignty”. It was a slap in your face statement on China’s position.

President Xi Jinping raised the China dominated unipolar Asia flag when addressing the fourth summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in Shanghai on May 21, 2014. He announced an Asia Security concept which in a nutshell can be summarized as “Asian security by Asians for Asia”. There is no place for outside powers-a pointed message to the US to leave Asian matters to Asians to settle. The declaration of the Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) over lapping parts of Japanese and South Korean ADIZ, and employing the one billion dollar oil rig to drill in Vietnam claimed waters in the South China Sea, were replies to US pivot in Asia. Beijing dared and tested Washington in the Asia pacific region.

China perceives that President Barack Obama is entering the lame duck period of his presidency. The US is also seem to be in withdrawal mood-Afghanistan and Iraq, undecided in Syria and Ukraine, moving towards compromise with Iran over Tehran’s nuclear enrichment. America is losing points.

That obviously brings to question the strength and determination of USA’s enhanced security agreement with Japan and support to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s efforts to change the constitution on military doctrine. Yet, the non-committal US position in the case of Senkaku or Diaoyu Island in Japanese control but claimed by China has put to question on America’s response to a Chinese military initiative to take over the Senkakus.

The other issue is that of Taiwan.

The Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) passed by the US Congress in 1978 enjoins upon the US President to come to Taiwan’s aid if attacked by China. Even then, it is not very clear how the US President of the time will make the determination to come to Taiwan’s assistance militarily.

The US has a military agreement with the Philippines, strong relations with Malaysia, and considering upping the relationship with Vietnam. Singapore is also a military support base. And Australia is a treaty partners.

With its ‘pivot’ or ‘rebalancing’ in Asia which will see 60 percent of American deployment in the region by 2020 and a base in Darwin, on paper it would see an array of countries, if South Korea is also included, ranged with the US to stand up to an aggressive or threatening China. Many international observers are of the view that China’s aggressiveness has pushed these counties to the US camp.

Most of these countries bullied by China on territorial issues especially now with China claiming 90 per cent of the South China Sea as its territory, would be natural US allies. But the US track record on clear commitment does not inspire confidence among them.

Despite military and security agreements between than, it is difficult to say how strongly Australia would support the US in a China-US military stand off. Australia seemed to have become too dependent on China for its export of minerals, especially iron ore. Chinese propaganda and upbraiding of Australia by the Chinese official media has made Canberra somewhat shaky. If presented by a fait accompli, however, Australia would find it difficult to close its doors to Washington.

Japan, however, is a different question altogether. USA has been both Japan’s quarter-master and protector. Under USA’s umbrella Tokyo advanced economically and technologically. If allowed to work freely, it can leap frog in the front lines of the worlds military, including nuclear, in a very short time. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s tinkering with constitution to give his country more military teeth is opposed by a significant number of Japanese. But the USA supports Abe’s adventure.

Militarily, China has a psychological disadvantage vis-à-vis Japan; and this comes out periodically. China has never won a war with the Japanese. They would do everything to keep Japan’s military stunted. And they want to get back the Senkakus and Ryukyus island chains which they claim.

A PLA inspired article last year lists the six inevitable wars in a chronological order as follows:

(i)                 To unify Taiwan (2020-2025)

(ii)               Recover various islands of the South China Sea (2025-2030)

(iii)              To recover Southern Tibet-India’s Arunanchal Pradesh (2035-2040)

(iv)             To recover Diaoyutai/Senkaku and Ryukyus (2045-2050)

(v)               Unify outer Mongolia (2045-2050)

(vi)             Recover territory seized by Russia (2055-2060).

This is not a stated official policy. Developed by military experts, these are inputs for consideration by policy elites and cannot be dismissed out of hand. There has been no official denial either.

The chronology is interesting. Unification of Taiwan is becoming increasingly achievable given the Taiwanese KMT government leanings and weakening of the pro-independence DPP. Among China’s military think tanks, development of Anti Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) weapons systems by China may deter US interference/involvement for the short period required for PLA and the navy and air-force to take control of Taiwan and make it an irreversible act. It will be great achievement of Xi Jinping’s (retires in 2022) promised celebration of 100 years of the Communist Party in 2019.

In that case Xi will surpass Mao Zedong who defeated imperialism and colonialism. Such a success, defeating biggest imperialist the USA can be springboard for Xi to jump over the age restriction for the party chief. A natural corollary would be to exercise sovereign control of the Spratly and Parcel Islands.

The next step would be to wrest Arunanchal Pradesh from India (2035-2040). This time scale pushed the resolution of the India-China border question by another 20 to 40 years if not more. The PLA does not expect India to sit with folded arms. 

The time frame for ‘recovery” of territories from Japan, integrate Mongolia, and tear away Russia’s Siberia are admittedly more difficult targets. What is moot here is that China’s ambitions are known, and more territorial demands will be unveiled as it gets stronger. All concerned are also watching China’s irredentism very closely.

The chronology of the wars can change depending upon circumstances, but studies and projections by Chinese military experts create great mistrust with its neighbours. A situation has come when no neighbour trusts China.

After the $ 40 billion gas import deal with Russia this year, Chinese experts are trying to project a new alliance has been arrived at with Russia to support each other strategically. Russian president Vladimir Putin is no fall guy, and the Chinese leaders know it. At the moment the tactical moves are based on the Crimean crisis.

Putin and the Russian political, diplomatic and military elite certainly do not want to promote an Asia Pacific region and the concerned Sea/oceanic commons dictated by Chinese sovereignty. It is in Moscow’s interest to reorder relations with Japan, and even Japan may reciprocate if the arrangements suit its own security interests. Russia’s relations with Vietnam and some other ASEAN are stable. Military sales here are growing.

The challenge to President Putin in this region is the US. How will Washington deal simultaneously with China and Russia, and how will it guide Japan in its relations with Russia. A balance is not easy to find.

President Xi Jinping appears to have taken full control of the PLA, especially following the recent anti-corruption drive, bringing down heavy weight power centers in the armed forces. As chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), he made emphatically dear to modernize a military that can “fight wars and win wars”.

It is, therefore, a little disconcerting when an editorial in the official PLA newspaper, the Liberation Army Daily (LAD) recently said China can only achieve it foreign policy aims through a military force capable of winning wars rather than through diplomacy. The editorial was published shortly before the 120^th anniversary of a naval defeat to Japan (1895). It added “if soldiers with guns on the battlefield cannot get things back, do not expect diplomats to get it back at the negotiating table” (Bloomberg News July 29, 2014).

The editorial clearly pointed to Japan and threatened military action to acquire the Diaoyu (Senkaku) islands and Ryukyus chain of islands. China claims these as their sovereign territory lost to unequal treaties. Some western scholars do not rule out a China-Japan war.

The threat could also be extended to other claimants of Spratly islands, though Beijing in fairly confident that threats, pressure and dialogue would ultimately suffice.

The Chinese military is still considering a “short and decisive” strike and establish its control before the world and UN can react. They have taken the cue from UK’s Falkland war. But a China-Japan war is unlikely to remain limited and the entire Japanese nation will turn against China. The US will have to get involved.

In case of a war, the economy of the region can be seriously damaged. China and ASEAN have a bilateral trade of around $ 450 billion. China-Japan trade stands around $ 330 billion. The other big bilateral is that with the US which has crossed $500 billion. The cost will not only be enormous for these involved by even for those outside players like India. Given the indicators, a war hysteria at the moment may be avoided.

The Chinese have developed a theory “winning a war without fighting a war”. A strategy called the “Three warfare strategy”, mainly handled by the PLA, works as follows:

(i)                 Psychological warfare- displaying military and political power against weaker opponents and forcing them to succumb. (India suffered from inferiority complex)

(ii)               Media warfare- using not only national media but also influencing foreign writers and media.

(iii)             Legal warfare- manipulating international laws and protocols, and presenting mostly (absurd) claims including using ancient claims and unequal treaties.

Concerned countries including India especially must examine this strategy carefully and not fall in this mind control trap. “Three War fares” can be a very effective weapon.

US Secretary of State John Kerry declared last November (2013) that the era of Monroe Doctrine was over. The message from White House ‘holding areas or arc of influence era’ was over with globalization. Latin American countries could not be controlled ideologically and politically from Washington. To China and many international observers this position meant the US had conceded to China. In Beijing’s perception China was the new owner of the Monroe Doctrine.

China has been probing Latin America from at least 2004. Now top Chinese leaders make it a point to visit the Latin American countries regularly and provide and build relationships to which Washington does not object.

Energy and natural resources imports being a major imperative for China it has forayed into Africa, having setup an African fund and investing in selected countries of the continent. More than 60 per cent of its oil imports come from Africa. Mineral extraction is another area and a third is agriculture. The head of China’s environment impact assessment office suggested (July 28, Beijing) import of food-grains to save the scarce water resources of the country.

The recent US-Africa meeting in Washington (August 05) showed the first signs of the US seriously considering China’s African penetration, and reentering Africa in a more decisive way.

Returning to Asia briefly, it was the US which encouraged China to dominate Asia. During his trip to China in 1997, President Bill Clinton suggested China’s ombudsmanship over South Asia. President Barack Obama offered China the G-2 (the two Great Powers) status to China.

China demands great power status, yet claims it is a developing country. With great power status come great responsibilities. Responsibility is something which China wants to avoid. Disturbed situations in different parts to the globe are seen as opportunities to further its interests. Its arms sales to disturbed regions or even aid are not conditioned in any way, though Beijing claims its actions are “responsible”.

At the same time, however, China requires US cooperation or at least neutrality to active great power status.

In a keynote speech at the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue this year in Beijing (July 09, 2014 Xinhua), Xi Jinping said China and the US should properly handle frictions and contradiction in their bilateral relations, so as to forge a “new model of major-country relationship”.

Xi reiterated that China was “striving for its dream of realizing great national rejuvenation, which requires a peaceful and stable international environment more than ever before”. He also emphasized that both sides should respect each others sovereignty, territorial integrity, and chosen model of development. Each word here has specific meaning for China and linked to its core interests.

Geoff Wade linked to the Australian National University wrote (Nov 26, 2013) about a Chinese film titled “silent contest” which suggest the US was trying to destroy China through following five avenues (i) undermining China politically, (ii) engaging in cultural infiltration (iii) warfare in terms of ideas (iv) training fifth Colum agents (v) fostering of opposition forces in China.

Although the film was withdrawn from websites gradually, this reflects more of genuine fear that the US aims to demolish the Communist Party of China, erode ideology, dismember the country (Tibet, Xinjiang), and prevent its national integration (recovering claimed territories).

Following the June, 1989 students uprising, Deng Xiaoping told a visiting African head of state, that the uprising was part of USA’s operation “peaceful evolution” (Deng Xiaoping. Complete works). This psychological operation, which incessantly bombarded the Soviet Union with the superiority of capitalism, especially social and political freedom in a democracy, and was largely responsible for destroying the Communist Party of Soviet Union (CPSU).

In the past months China has been tightening a variety of freedoms especially those of media and journalists. The communist party periodical, Qiushi declared the concept of “universal values” as the Chinese people’s most dangerous enemy. China’s acute concern is also reflected by an article by renowned Chinese commentator, Dai Xu stating that the only type of war that could destroy China is the ideological war in cyberspace.

On the other hand, as the US global power begins to decline China’s power increases. Some power has to fill in the space left by the US. Putin’s Russia has failed to do so. Yet in terms of real power the US remains well ahead of China. For example, China cannot call up a single ally, not even Pakistan, to come to its aide openly to counter the US. Whereas, several countries are waiting for Washington’s lead to counter China.

China is also in a region where there are other powers that are growing and can establish alliances. Japan, the Philippines, Australia, and India are among those. Vietnam is small in size but is not a pushover.

India is one power which is demonstrating more foreign policy spark under the new government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Dominated by BJP, the government is more nationalistic, but currently focused on development. By inviting the head of this Tibetan government in exits, Lobsang Sangye, Modi drew a clear line on the Tibetan issue.

Conclusion

One of the successful maneuvers China undertook (from the late 1970s and 1980s) for a seat at the global high table was the “polar” international structure. In the 1980s China projected a tripolar power balance with the USA and the Soviet Union as the strong poles and China as the third pole weak but growing. This was the theory necessitated the two powers to strengthen China to maintain global stability.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Beijing projected a bipolar world theory comprising the USA and China. Interestingly, China’s weakness to the USA was couched. They also projected periodically economic poles like the European Union, Japan and India. The main drive, however, was the G-2 (US, China) power formulation.

Intrinsic in it was the proposal that the globe be divided between the US and China, allowing the US to take the larger share. This arrangement was rejected by the US, though Washington has wide ranging relations with Beijing which follows a sine wave structure – ups and downs.

As an Asian power, however, China never proposed a multi polar Asia. Chinese diplomats avoid discussing this concept. From all indications it is clear China is pursuing the structure of a uni-polar Asia, China being that pole.

This is the Son of Heaven concept in all seriousness, and is not a fairy tale.

China has been apprehensive for some years now, especially following the India-US nuclear deal that a US-India alliance was developing to counter China. Although there is no truth to this allegation and the Chinese know that, Beijing kept up the propaganda to keep India under pressure.

China’s real concern about an Indian-US partnership is India’s access to American cutting edge technology, both civilian and military, and a cooperation that could dominate the Indian Ocean.

The UPA government under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh demonstrated a kind of weakness where China was concerned. The new NDA government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while giving greater emphasis on “development” in India-China relations, has drawn some clear lines of Indian interests including peaceful resolution of South China Sea issues and freedom of navigation of the South China.

At the same time, Mr. Modi disappointed China by putting India-US diplomatic problems aside, accepting President Barack Obama’s invitation to visit Washington in September, and restarting defence acquisition along with technology transfer talks. The message to China is just as Beijing can conduct relation with the US independent of other relations, India can and will prosecute relations with US independent of China’s views.

China’s response to India is not yet clear. President Xi is scheduled to visit India in autumn and will receive a red carpet welcome.

China, however, has several plans that could enmesh India. The various ‘silk routes’ of trade and culture being talked by them involves India as major station. The BCIM (Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar) land route is another important thrust by China to enter the Indian Ocean through a short route. It is expected China will invite India to join the various regional groupings China is initiating, and persuade India to support a new monetary mechanism in Asia with China to counter the Brenton woods institutions.

From the Asia pacific region, through Africa to Latin America, US and China will hedge each other. But the most incendiary areas are the East China Sea and the South China Sea. Much will depend on the character of President Xi Jinping. His handling of internal situations suggest that he is going back to the Maoist era of one-man party center and not the collegium leadership system introduced by Deng Xiaoping. Application of a one man hardline policy on contentious territorial claims may lead to that one spark that can set a prairie on fire.

(The writer is a New Delhi based strategic analyst.  He can be reached at e-mail grouchohart@yahoo.com)

The post The New Cold War And India – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

(RFE/RL) — Iraq’s caretaker Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki says it will take a federal court ruling for him to leave power.

Iraq’s President Fuad Masum on August 11 asked senior Shi’ite politician Haidar al-Abadi to form a new government.

But Maliki said on August 13 that Abadi’s appointment was a “violation” of the constitution and “had no value.”

Maliki said in his televised weekly address, “I confirm that the government will continue and there will not be a replacement for it without a decision from the Federal [Supreme] Court.”

Maliki, the premier since 2006, has served in a caretaker capacity since an inconclusive election in April.

He has been accused of fueling sectarian violence as the country is battling an Islamist insurgency, but he has refused calls by Sunni, Kurdish, and fellow Shi’ite politicians to step down.

The post Iraq’s Maliki Says Won’t Quit Without Court Ruling appeared first on Eurasia Review.

My old family house in the Nuseirat refugee camp in Gaza was recently rebuilt by its new owner, into a beautiful three-story building with large windows adorned by red frames. In Israel’s most recent and deadliest war on Gaza, the house sustained significant damage. A large hole caused by Israeli missiles can be seen from afar, in a part of the house where our kitchen once stood.

It seems that the original target was not my house, however, but that of our kindly neighbor, who had spent his entire working-life toiling between manual jobs in Israel, and later in life as a janitor for UN-operated schools in Gaza. The man’s whole lifesavings were invested in his house where several families lived. After “warning” rockets blew up part of his house, several missiles pulverized the rest.

My entire neighborhood was also destroyed. I saw photos of the wreckage-filled neighborhood by accident on Facebook. The clearance where we played football as little kids was filled with holes left by missiles and shrapnel. The shop where I used my allowance to buy candy, was blown up. Even the graveyard where our dead were meant to “rest in peace” was anything but peaceful. Signs of war and destruction were everywhere.

My last visit there was about two years ago. I caught up with my neighbors on the latest politics and the news of who was dead and who was still alive underneath the shady wall of my old house. One complained about his latest ailments, telling me that his son Mahmoud had been killed as he had been a freedom fighter with a Palestinian resistance movement.

I couldn’t fathom the idea that Mahmoud, the child I remembered as running around half-naked with a runny nose, had become a fierce fighter with an automatic rifle ready to take on the Israeli army. But that he was, and he was killed on duty.

Time changes everything. Time has changed Gaza. But the strip was never a passive place of people subsisting on hand-outs or a pervasive sense of victimhood. Being a freedom fighter preceded any rational thinking about life and the many choices it had to offer growing up in a refugee camp, and all the little kids of my generation wanted to join the Fedayeen.

But options for Gazans are becoming much more limited than ever before, even for my generation.

Since Israel besieged Gaza with Egypt’s help and coordination, life for Gazans has become largely about mere survival. The strip has been turned into a massive ground for an Israeli experiment concerned with population control. Gazans were not allowed to venture out, fish, or farm, and those who got even close to some arbitrary “buffer zone,” determined by the Israeli army within Gaza’s own borders, were shot and often killed.

With time the population of the strip knew that they were alone. The short stint that brought Mohammed Morsi to power in Egypt offered Gaza some hope and a respite, but it soon ended. The siege, after the overthrow of Morsi became tighter than ever before.

The Palestinian leadership in Ramallah did very little to help Gaza. To ensure the demise of Hamas, Mahmoud Abbas’ Palestinian Authority carried on with its “security coordination” with Israel, as Gaza suffered a Draconian siege. There was no question, that after all the failed attempts at breaking the siege and the growing isolation of Gaza, Gazans had to find their own way out of the blockade.

When Israeli began its bombardment campaign of Gaza on July 6, and a day later with the official launch of the so-called Operation Protective Edge, followed by a ground invasion, it may have seemed that Gaza was ready to surrender.

Political analysts have been advising that Hamas has been at its weakest following the downturn of the Arab Spring, the loss of its Egyptian allies, and the dramatic shift of its fortunes in Syria and, naturally Iran. The “Hamas is ready to fold” theory was advanced by the logic surrounding the unity agreement between Hamas and Fatah; and unity was seen largely as a concession by Hamas to Abbas’ Fatah movement, which continued to enjoy western political backing and monetary support.

The killing of three Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank in late June was the opportunity for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to test the misleading theory on Hamas’ weakened position. He launched his war that eventually mounted into a genocide, hoping that Hamas and other resistance groups would be forced to disarm or be completely eradicated – as promised by various Israeli officials.

But it didn’t. From the very first days of the war it became clear the resistance could not be defeated, at least not as easily as Netanyahu had expected. The more troops he invested in the war on Gaza, the more Israeli army casualties increased. Netanyahu’s response was to increase the price of Palestinian resistance by inflicting as much harm on Palestinian civilians as possible: He killed over 1,900, wounded nearly 10,000, a vast majority of whom were civilians, and destroyed numerous schools, mosques, hospitals, and thousands of homes, thus sending hundreds of thousands of people on the run. But where does one run when there is nowhere to go?

Israel’s usual cautious political discourse was crumbling before Gaza’s steadfastness. Israeli officials and media began to openly call for genocide. Middle East commentator Jeremy Salt explained:

“The more extreme of the extreme amongst the Zionists say out loud that the Palestinians have to be wiped out or at the very least driven into Sinai,” he wrote, citing Moshe Feiglin, the deputy of the Israeli Knesset, who called for “full military conquest of the Gaza strip and the expulsion of its inhabitants. They would be held in tent encampments along the Sinai border while their final destination was decided. Those who continued to resist would be exterminated.”

From Israeli commentator Yochanan Gordon, who flirted with genocide in “when genocide is permissible,” to Ayelet Shaked, who advocated the killing of the mothers of those who resist and are killed by Israel. “They should follow their sons. Nothing would be more just. They should go as should the physical houses in which they raised the snakes. Otherwise more little snakes are raised,” he wrote on Facebook.

References to genocide and extermination and other devastatingly violent language are no longer “claims” levied by Israeli critics, but a loud and daily self-indictment made by the Israelis themselves.

The Israelis are losing control of their decades-long hasbara, a propaganda scheme so carefully knitted and implemented, many the world over were fooled by it. Palestinians, those in Gaza in particular, were never blind to Israel’s genocidal intentions. They assembled their resistance with the full knowledge that a fight for their very survival awaited.

Israel’s so-called Protective Edge is the final proof of Israel’s unabashed face, that of genocide. It carried it out, this time paying little attention to the fact that the whole world was watching. Trending Twitter hashtags which began with #GazaUnderAttack, then #GazaResists, quickly morphed to #GazaHolocaust. The latter was used by many that never thought they would dare make such comparisons.

Gaza managed to keep Israel at bay in a battle of historic proportions. Once its children are buried, it will once again rebuild its defenses for the next battle. For Palestinians in Gaza, this is not about mere resistance strategies, but their very survival.

The post Hashtag Genocide: Why Gaza Fought Back – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah has congratulated Haidar Al-Abadi on his nomination as the new prime minister of Iraq, replacing Nuri Al-Maliki, and expressed hope that Al-Abadi would be able to unify the Iraqi people.

In a congratulatory message sent to Al-Abadi, King Abdullah prayed that God Almighty may grant him success … in “restoring cohesion” among the Iraqi people and “preserving Iraq’s unity and achieving its security, stability and development.”

He said he wants to see Iraq, under the new prime minister, “regain its rightful place in the Arab and Muslim world.”

King Abdullah also congratulated the new Iraqi President Mohammed Fouad Masum and new Parliament Speaker Salim Al-Jabouri. He also praised Masum for appointing Al-Abadi to lead the new government.

Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal earlier welcomed the nomination of Al-Abadi, describing it as good news.

“This is the good news I heard lately,” the veteran diplomat said during a news conference in Jeddah.

Saudi Arabia shares more than 800 km of border with Iraq and has been alarmed by the offensive led by extremist forces, who have captured large swathes of its neighbor.

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Among the jihadists arrested yesterday in Kosovo there is one Macedonian citizen citied Kosovo’s media as reported by Dnevnik. According to the newspaper “Zeri”, it is Besim A. Shabani, 32, from Skopje, who has been residing in Ferizaj for a long time. Besides him, Fikret Krco, a Bosniak, age 23 has also been arrested.

Kosovo Police had been looking for another 17 Kosovars who together with 40 people were arrested yesterday, as suspected of belonging to terrorist organizations, the Islamic State (IC) and Al Nusra, Pristina media reported.

During the police raid few days ago, the leader of this group, Bujar Brahimi, was not found in his home, reported the newspaper “Zeri”. Brahimi, who comes from Mitrovica, was a member of ID in Syria for a year and a half. In addition he is a close friend of Lavdrim Muhajer, one of the leaders of this group.

In April this year, Brahimi returned to Kosovo and immediately began to agitate among citizens to leave and join the other Muslims in jihad.

Brahimi is at the top of the list of 57 suspects for terrorism and for inciting terrorism. With another 16 suspects, he is in a run. During the police raid, two facilities suspected to have been used to recruit young people to leave for Syria had been closed.

One of them is the improvised mosque in the building “Termokosa” in Dardania neighborhood in Pristina and the other one is the Tower for orphans in Prevala which according to the police have been the assembly points of this terrorist network. There are suspicions that the majority of the 40 arrests had fought in Syria and Iraq as part of the terrorist organizations ID and Al Nusra.

Kosovo’s Interior Minister Bajram Rexhepi for the newspaper “Express” said that many organizations that act as humanitarian are actually associated with the arrested jihadists. He hasn’t named the organizations, but has mentioned that among them there is a Turkish one.

“In the second or the third phase we will have enough evidence to investigate these organizations”, points out Rexhepi.

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U.S. jobs pay an average 23% less today than they did before the 2008 recession, according to a new report released on Monday by the United States Conference of Mayors.

In total, the report found $93 billion in lost wages.

Jobs lost during the recession paid an average $61,637. As of 2014, jobs in the same sectors paid an average of $47,171 annually.

“Under a similar analysis conducted by the Conference of Mayors during the 2001-2002 recession, the wage gap was only 12% compared to the current 23%–meaning the wage gap has nearly doubled from one recession to the next,” stated the Conference of Mayors in a statement.

The report also found that 73% of metro area households earn salaries of less than $35,000 a year.

President Barack Obama, who is on a two-week vacation at Martha’s Vineyard, has yet to comment on the dour economic findings.

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By Manmath Goel

In May 2013, Ben Bernanke’s hint of ’tapering’ or slowing down the pace of the Federal Reserve’s unconventional monetary policy called Quantitative Easing (QE) caused nothing short of turmoil within emerging market economies (EMEs). Rapid outflow of capital and a concomitant deterioration of current account deficit resulted in sharp depreciation of currencies and an overall worsening of the respective domestic macroeconomies. By September 2013, the Indian rupee and the Brazilian real had fallen by more than 15 percent each. Inequity markets, Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index and Turkey’s BIST 100 shed nearly 20 percent each during this period

The QE program created $85 billion per month via asset purchases and expanded the Fed balance sheet four times from $1 trillion in 2007 to $4 trillion currently. This scale of liquidity was accompanied by near zero interest rates. Although QE was aimed at facilitation of a domestic recovery in the US following the global financial crisis, it also prompted investors to direct capital into EMEs to reap better return. Once these investors sensed a reversal of US monetary policy, they retracted their investment and collectively caused a capital flight from the EMEs.

Unconventional monetary policies to ensure cheap liquidity and easy credit conditions have not been limited to the US. Japan embarked on its own version of QE to pull its economy out of a deflationary trap; in Europe, the ECB introduced negative deposit rates to motivate bank lending. It can well be argued that this highly accommodative monetary stance of central banks in advanced economies has led to demand augmentation and aided global recovery.

According to the IMF, global growth is expected to strengthen from 3 per cent in 2013 to 3.9 per cent in 2015. Out of this, AEs are expected to grow at about 2.25 per cent in 2015 – a full percentage point greater than the growth rate in 2013. The positive growth in the advanced economies has, in turn, helped create external demand for EMEs, which are also expected to register an increase in growth.

On deeper analysis, however, it is obvious that the recovery is sluggish at best. Investment to GDP ratios are below the pre-crisis levels and productivity continues its declining trend. Instead of capacity building, firms have preferred to buy back shares and engage in mergers and acquisitions. Indeed, capital expenditure fell by one per cent last year with the decline more severe in EMEs.

Given the underlying data and low economic output, economists have warned of ’secular stagnation’ – a permanently lower trend of growth. Although unconventional monetary policy has induced positive growth rates, it has failed to correct structural problems. What’s worse is that the prolonged prevalence of low interest rates has become a source of global imbalance.

Bubbles and spillovers

In its latest annual report, the BIS referred to a “puzzling disconnect” between the euphoria in global financial markets and real economic developments. Recent data on high valuations on equities, rising property prices and depressed yields on bonds implythat investors are on a ’search for yield’. The S&P 500 gained almost 20 per cent in the year to May, whereas expected future earnings grew less than 8 per cent over the same period. Similarly, property prices in the UK were up 10.5 per cent in the year to May. There is also a fear that low interest rates have facilitated the creation of a global bond bubble – since 2009, USD 1.2 trillion has flowed into global bond funds. Importantly, sales of ’junk’ bonds – high yield, high risk bonds – touched a quarterly record of USD 148 billion between April and June that at times, depressed yields to less than 5 per cent in that period. Narrowing risk premiums and escalating asset prices without real improvement in inherent fundamentals show how the global financial system has become so dependent on easy monetary policy.

Spillovers from unconventional monetary policy in the AEs pose a systemic risk for EMEs. In order to stem the capital flight last year, central banks in EMEs were forced to raise interest rates and intervene in currency markets mostly at the expense of economic growth and an erosion of foreign exchange reserves. In fact, since then efforts to rebuild foreign exchange reserves have intensified to prevent recurrence of sudden capital outflow. These reserves perpetuate a savings glut, chiefly denominated in US debt and divert resources away from productive investments within EMEs themselves.

In central banks we trust

Low real output and global imbalances in a zero interest rate context have made central banks the vanguard of the world economy. If they raise interest rates too quickly, a downward spiral in asset prices could occur and possibly escalate to another financial crisis. If they delay, investors will continue to misprice risk and feed subprime asset bubbles. Indeed, Sweden’s central bank, Sveriges Riksbank dabbled with the former only to see the economy sucked into a deflationary trap.

Interest rates, if at all, must be deployed with sufficient ’forward guidance’ and clear communication so as to prevent investor panic. For instance, central banks in the US and UK have targeted a threshold rate of inflation and employment before any hike inthe nominal interest rates. Macroprudential measures such as property taxes and restrictions on excessive leverage can also help to control bubbles.

In as much as the scenario within EMEs impacts the global economy, central banks must look beyond their own domestic mandate. Before recalibration of monetary policy, careful consideration must be placed on long term implications on the EMEs. However, the buck does not just stop with the AE central banks. EMEs themselves must look to strengthen international safety nets – the announcement of a Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) at the latest BRICS summit that pledges $100 billion of mutual support is a case in point. In a world with swifter cross-border flows, lack of macroeconomic coordination may come at an exorbitant cost. This can be avoided.

(Manmath Goel is a Research Assistant at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi)

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By Erl Murati

Albania Prime Minister Edi Rama’s planned visit this fall to Serbia to meet with Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic will be the first high-level visit by an Albanian head of government to Serbia in 68 years.

“We have welcomed the Prime Minister Rama’s initiative to meet his Serbian counterpart. This visit is more than a symbolic gesture. The region is at peace now, but what is needed is the consolidation of democracy and the rule of law,” Jose Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, said.

The last such visit was in 1946, when Enver Hoxha visited Belgrade.

Another sign of warming relations was the meeting between Albania President Bujar Nishani and Serbia President Tomislav Nikolic during the regional summit in Croatia last month.

Relations have been stable but at a low intensity, said Bojan Elek, a researcher at the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy.

“Since 2000 when the democratic changes were made in Serbia, there have been only 11 bilateral agreements signed between the two countries. At the same time, Serbia and Bulgaria, another neighbour, signed 33 agreements. This suggests that there is room for deepening the co-operation,” Elek told SETimes.

Stabilising relations will be the safest and shortest way to the EU, said Arian Galdini, honorary president of the Forum for Democracy and Ethics in Tirana.

“In the history of Europe and even in the beginning of the EU, we find the most inspiring example in the history of France and Germany. The economy and the politics have all the instruments and the content to build a stable peace in the Balkans,” Galdini told SETimes.

“Our relations are not where they should be. Not all the potential, resulting from the further consolidation of the bilateral co-operation, is tapped,” Ditmir Bushati, Albania foreign minister, said.

Rama and Vucic became prime ministers by scoring convincing electoral victories, said Spiro Koci, Albanian ambassador to Austria, who also served in Serbia. “A special merit goes to the EU. This is a great achievement and even the internationals use it as an example for the other regions where the situation is alike,” Koci told SETimes.

Officials said, meanwhile, the two countries are making strides by also initiating citizen-to-citizen contact. Earlier this month, Serbian youth joined Albanian youths at the Beograna conference in Tirana.

“The most-debated topic of this conference was education, a concerning problem all over the Balkans. We focused on the specific problems, the needs and the practical solutions about education in both countries,” Joleza Kokam, head of the Socialist Party Youth Forum, told SETimes.

Conference planners will organise another gathering in Belgrade next month.

Correspondent Ivana Jovanovic in Belgrade contributed to this report.

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