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Peru: Monoculture Sweeps Amazon Forests

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Ninety percent of the deforestation of Peruvian Amazon forests is due to changing land for agriculture and livestock, ensure experts and environmental groups. Recent reports and journalistic articles revealed that the regional governments of Loreto and Ucayali, in the eastern part of the country, have sold millions of hectares of virgin forests as rural land for African oil palm cultivation.

According to the Peruvian Eco-Development Society (SPDE), “companies with interests and investments in palm oil crops have been acquiring rural land through offers to small farmers to force them to sell their land, through land invasion and through direct negotiation with public employees.”

“The Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (MINAGRI) and the regional governments of Loreto and Ucayali continue to promote deforestation to [cultivate] African oil palm by classifying forests as rural lands, by re-classifying forest land for agro-industrial purposes, by authorizing land use changes, and by approving environmental impact studies for agro-industrial projects,” pointed out the SPDE.

According to the MINAGRI, there are 600,000 hectares (1.5 million acres) of land in the Peruvian forest with the potential to grow oil palm crops. Currently, about 60,000 hectares (152,300 acres) are cultivated with this plant, mostly in the Amazonian departments of Huánuco, Loreto, San Martín and Ucayali.

However, Peruvian authorities are not taking into consideration the effects of this business on the environment.

The study “Potential environmental and social impacts of growing oil palm in the department of Loreto,” published in 2012 by the Peruvian Society of Environmental Law (SPDA), states that “the loss of forests associated with the cultivation of oil palm has, evidently, serious impacts on biodiversity. The flora and fauna do not regenerate around plants that replace forests. Additionally, there are risks of contaminating body of waters with agrochemicals and pesticides that are used for agro-industrial operations.”

Agricultural use

In an interview with the SPDA’s news bulletin Actualidad Ambiental, Juan Luis Dammert, one of the study’s authors, explained that “the oil palm plant is a very profitable monoculture crop. It can be an important substitute for the coca leaf crop. Then, it could be produced correctly. However, the issue is not to convert old-growth forests [natural forests, also known as virgin forests, which have not experienced human intervention] into palm monoculture, nor should lands that are classified as forests be used for agriculture.”

According to the SPDA’s investigation, one of the arguments that businessmen and local authorities use to promote this crop is that “the growth of oil palm in the Peruvian Amazon is small compared to the situation in Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela, where some 300,000, 200,000 and 70,000 hectares [741,000, 494,000 and 173,000 acres], respectively, are estimated to exist.”

According to this logic, “Peru, despite having large stretches of forests, lags behind in terms of oil palm production. Even more, Peru has an oil deficit of about 75 percent, so the development of this crop appears as an issue of national food security,” says the document.

An Aug. 10 report broadcast by Panorama, a program transmitted by Panamericana Televisión, revealed that the Agriculture office of the Regional Government of Ucayali sold the company Plantaciones Ucayali close to 5,000 hectares (13,700 acres) of virgin forests which are considered heritage of the nation. The company paid US$0.04 per square meter of land.

“The decentralization process allows regional governments to sell [land] without asking the buyer for land clearing permits or environmental impact studies that ensure that the agricultural work they do will not affect the ecosystem,” indicated the report.

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EU Doesn’t Recognize Local Crimea Elections

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The European Union reiterated Monday its condemnation of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, as well as reports of local elections.

“The European Union continues to condemn the illegal annexation of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the City of Sevastopol by the Russian Federation and will not recognise it,” the EU said in a press statement.

“In view of reports about local “elections” having taken place in Crimea and Sevastopol, we recall that the European Union recognises neither the legal framework nor the legitimacy of these ‘elections,’ the statement continued.

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Bosnia And Herzegovina And XXI Century: Maestro And Margarita [1] – Essay

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Voland was naive because the cat was Judas [2]

Indeed, professor, can I, within any moment create any presumption that sometimes and somewhere within this region, noble men walked … Family tree of every family in this area can easily create the issue what you are talking about a young friend of mine – timidly has answered me, dear professor. To continue. Since the beginning of times only with fire and with the sword we are getting the titles you’re talking about. Specifically, the knowledge and the validity of the mission of the individual never and no where came to the forefront in order to formulate the peerage. Only those steeped in blood and ominous intentions have passed well in these areas. Weren’t the “noble” people just with bloodiest hands. Were not the traitors of their own ethnic groups mostly good for themselves. Were not…?

Excuse me for interrupting, but saying this we are denying our own past and the announcement of a solid future, crowned with the ultimate definition of what is lacking within us through the centuries – the roots of our ethnicity. No, my dear student! On the contrary, as long as we are faced with nobility as a miserable representatives of the apparent shape of the archetypal notions of better and more perfect human, until then we just cannot go towards betterment. Here and now on the scene is the creation of feudal forms of the conception of man as a fighter for the selected “own self being” – with the help of corruption, crime and all sorts of evil, so close to either being. In the two thousand and fourteen year, Bosnia and Herzegovina is a place for all forms of perversions and place of weeping people of the assumed faith – the place for the people condemned to endless laboratory demands of the “worldly-mighty.” Hundred of families have been already selected with sinecures east and west from us, in the areas of our former homeland. Here, the process is ongoing and should be only focused towards that direction…

It’s me again, my professor! What direction? Whose direction? Well, I understand your desire and intention to expose the intentions of the local rulers of the souls, but … Do not interrupt me! – kick me professor and continue.. …towards creating of a new visions of everyday reality. Because, like once upon a time, when serfs became nobles as in today, yesterday’s greengrocers, bus drivers on suburban lines and sergeants want to become a new veziers of our destiny. To just continue what always nobility sought to be – common parasite on the backs of domestic human.

I understand, dear professor, but one question arises: How to prevent them from doing this?

Absolutely not! There is no way! Because human sordid does not deserve anything elses than to suffer and go out for pasture, believing that they will survive. It just reminded me on a single sentence from the art-work of the great Bulgakov: “You do not believe – You’re going to non-existence!” It’s all being said within this one. You do not have to believe that this is possible, but it is exactly like that. Just keep racking your brain about new ideas of democracy and you will realize one thing:

Fate has already been determined and it is not at all positive. On the way to Judgment day a human is doomed to suffer. Without stopping. Consciousness is lost under the impact of irrational, omnipotent spirit directed towards manipulation. The nobles, the robbers of the spirit are born again and again. We just call them differently. And create ones. Towards the same goal. THE END OF OUR OWN.

Notes:

[1] The Master and Margarita (Russian: «Ма́стер и Маргари́та») is a novel by Mikhail Bulgakov, written between 1928 and 1940 but unpublished in book form until 1967. Info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Master_and_Margarita

[2] “Gasping for it its fictional and never conceited nobility as the only left thing they keep their head upright, allegedly insulted were leaving the society, but only when there was not any other place for a single drop of alcohol in their body, and through lumbering, they were leaving while yelling, “I am, you should remember that, die to paternal and maternal roots, a bey …!” Amir Brka “Monography of the city” 2001

Remark S.H.: “Bey“ is the title for Turkish nobleman/aristocrat

Photo taken from Here – and part from Here.

The post Bosnia And Herzegovina And XXI Century: Maestro And Margarita [1] – Essay appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The India-US Partnership: $1 Trillion By 2030

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India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, will make a landmark visit to the U.S. in September 2014. Anticipating a renewed partnership between the two countries, Gateway House, an Indian foreign policy think tank, launched a research paper ahead of the prime minister’s visit titled The India-U.S. Partnership: $1 Trillion by 2030, authored by Nish Acharya, a senior advisor at Northeastern University, on 15 September 2014 in Washington D.C.

To elevate the bilateral from $120 billion in 2013 to $1 trillion in 2030, the research paper advocates a different path for the India-U.S. bilateral from all others – one based on the hockey-stick curve more typical of tech start-ups, one that will bring India into the group of the three other countries outside of the G7 which have a deep economic relationship with the U.S.: Israel, Mexico and South Korea.

Technology, then as now, presents the springboard for the future of a vigorous India-U.S. partnership. The paper identifies four positions that India must pursue, and four that the U.S. must pursue for the success of the engagement.

What India needs to do:

In order to tackle India’s development challenges, it is necessary to create a “surge” – i.e. rapid and intense deployment of talented individuals and technical experts to address critical and immediate challenges – in areas such as infrastructure, healthcare, energy and agriculture. A surge provides an opportunity to invite companies and experts from the U.S. to begin working on these critical areas.
Leading and innovating new technologies can create millions of new jobs and opportunities in India. Towards this, India needs to build a “Silicon Swadesh” – a robust entrepreneurial ecosystem, modelled on Silicon Valley, to support home-grown innovation and entrepreneurship across several Indian cities.

India needs to build a ramp for poverty alleviation i.e. a ramp which would enable the 42% of Indians that live under the World Bank poverty line of $1.25 a day to access the services of NGOs, social entrepreneurs and microfinance organisations. These organisations are able to identify problems as well as scale solutions, but they are unable to build sustainable systems and expertise to achieve a lasting impact. Entrepreneurial and non-profit models from the U.S. can be of assistance here.

The country needs to take advantage of next generation technologies for which it is well suited, such as synthetic biology, 3D printing, mobile, social and big data, to create an industrial base in India from which products and services can be sold and jobs created. The U.S. is a pioneer in many of these technologies, and a fruitful collaboration between the two countries would involve mainly research and sales.

What the U.S. needs to do:

Indian Americans have contributed significantly to the entrepreneurial, small business and healthcare sectors in the U.S. – Indian American co-founders form nearly 33% of Silicon Valley start-ups and account for about 7% of American physicians. India can continue to feed this pipeline of skilled professionals in the U.S.

Companies in the U.S. have struggled with budget limitations caused by global competition and the global financial crisis. Indian companies have experience in low-cost innovation, constant process improvement and frugal budgeting and seeing applications – much can be learned from them about innovation and scale.

An estimated 100 million Indians who study and work abroad have family and friends in the U.S. and maintain a connection to the U.S. throughout their lives. The U.S. can leverage this customer base in the areas of education, tourism and luxury brands.

The number of development entrepreneurs and innovators in the U.S. is increasing – their inventions are technologically cutting edge, and they are committed to making a difference. They are keen to collaborate with Indian partners on research, innovation, experimentation to reach a potential customer base of nearly 5 billion Indians for development-related products, brands and services.

The post The India-US Partnership: $1 Trillion By 2030 appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Vitamin E Intake Critical During ‘First 1000 Days’

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Amid conflicting reports about the need for vitamin E and how much is enough, a new analysis published today suggests that adequate levels of this essential micronutrient are especially critical for the very young, the elderly, and women who are or may become pregnant.

A lifelong proper intake of vitamin E is also important, researchers said, but often complicated by the fact that this nutrient is one of the most difficult to obtain through diet alone. Only a tiny fraction of Americans consume enough dietary vitamin E to meet the estimated average requirement.

Meanwhile, some critics have raised unnecessary alarms about excessive vitamin E intake while in fact the diet of most people is insufficient, said Maret Traber, a professor in the College of Public Health and Human Sciences at Oregon State University, principal investigator with the Linus Pauling Institute and national expert on vitamin E.

“Many people believe that vitamin E deficiency never happens,” Traber said. “That isn’t true. It happens with an alarming frequency both in the United States and around the world. But some of the results of inadequate intake are less obvious, such as its impact on the nervous system and brain development, or general resistance to infection.”

Some of the best dietary sources of vitamin E – nuts, seeds, spinach, wheat germ and sunflower oil – don’t generally make the highlight list of an average American diet. One study found that people who are highly motivated to eat a proper diet consume almost enough vitamin E, but broader surveys show that 90 percent of men and 96 percent of women don’t consume the amount currently recommended, 15 milligrams per day for adults.

In a review of multiple studies, published in Advances in Nutrition, Traber outlined some of the recent findings about vitamin E. Among the most important are the significance of vitamin E during fetal development and in the first years of life; the correlation between adequate intake and dementia later in life; and the difficulty of evaluating vitamin E adequacy through measurement of blood levels alone.

Findings include:

  • Inadequate vitamin E is associated with increased infection, anemia, stunting of growth and poor outcomes during pregnancy for both the infant and mother.
  • Overt deficiency, especially in children, can cause neurological disorders, muscle deterioration, and even cardiomyopathy.
  • Studies with experimental animals indicate that vitamin E is critically important to the early development of the nervous system in embryos, in part because it protects the function of omega-3 fatty acids, especially DHA, which is important for brain health. The most sensitive organs include the head, eye and brain.
  • One study showed that higher vitamin E concentrations at birth were associated with improved cognitive function in two-year-old children.
  • Findings about diseases that are increasing in the developed world, such as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and diabetes, suggest that obesity does not necessarily reflect adequate micronutrient intake.
  • Measures of circulating vitamin E levels in the blood often rise with age as lipid levels also increase, but do not prove an adequate delivery of vitamin E to tissues and organs.
  • Vitamin E supplements do not seem to prevent Alzheimer’s disease occurrence, but have shown benefit in slowing its progression.
  • A report in elderly humans showed that a lifelong dietary pattern that resulted in higher levels of vitamins B,C, D and E were associated with a larger brain size and higher cognitive function.
  • Vitamin E protects critical fatty acids such as DHA throughout life, and one study showed that people in the top quartile of DHA concentrations had a 47 percent reduction in the risk of developing all-cause dementia.

“It’s important all of your life, but the most compelling evidence about vitamin E is about a 1000-day window that begins at conception,” Traber said. “Vitamin E is critical to neurologic and brain development that can only happen during that period. It’s not something you can make up for later.”

Traber said she recommends a supplement for all people with at least the estimated average requirement of vitamin E, but that it’s particularly important for all children through about age two; for women who are pregnant, nursing or may become pregnant; and for the elderly.

This research was supported in part by the National Institutes of Health.

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Xi Jinping And The Maritime Silk Road: The Indian Dilemma – Analysis

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By Vijay Sakhuja

New Delhi is abuzz with speculation that President Xi Jinping could raise the issue of Maritime Silk Road (MSR) during his visit to India this week and explore business, investments and trade opportunities for China in India. At least three reasons can be identified to uphold the above assumption; first, the issue of MSR was raised during President Hamid Ansari’s visit to China in July this year and the Indian side had indicated that New Delhi would examine the idea. The Chinese would be keen for a response from the Indian side and India may push for the BCIM (Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar) corridor to which it has offered wholehearted support and it serves the interests of all the partners.

The second reason is that the MSR is a pet project of the Chinese President and is believed to have been driven by his knowledge of ancient Chinese cultural and trade connections with the outside world. Apparently, between 1985 and 2002, Xi had personally taken interest in the Quanzhou Maritime Museum, and according to the curator, Xi had perused through the ancient historical records, artifacts and exhibits at the museum and may have ‘learnt a lot about China’s maritime history’ which could have been the driver for his interest in MSR. Xi even secured substantial government grants for the museum. Incidentally, Quanzhou is home to several ancient shrines and temples built by Tamil communities who had established trading contacts with the Chinese during the Song (960-1279) and Yuan (1279-1368) periods. Given his knowledge of ancient maritime trade and cultural connections between India and China, Xi may recall the cultural and Buddhist connections between the two countries. It is pertinent to mention that China has committed US $1 million for the Nalanda University.

Third, Xi Jinping has been hard selling the MSR among a number of countries in Asia, Africa, and as far as Europe. The MSR was first discussed in 2013 with the ASEAN countries and apparently they were a little apprehensive about the idea. But now Singapore has come out in full support and Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has indicated that the MSR could act as a catalyst for development of the region. In South Asia, Sri Lanka and Maldives appear to be favourably disposed about the opportunity to build maritime infrastructure and the idea is fast gaining traction in Bangladesh. Xi Jinping would have discussed the MSR with Pakistan too but Beijing had to postpone the visit to Islamabad due to prevailing political situation in the country. Interestingly, the MSR was also discussed with Iran. The MSR foot print in Africa is in Kenya and a few European countries appear to be onboard.

An Indian Response to the MSR

What could be India’s response in case MSR comes up for discussions or Xi makes a reference to it during the visit? But before doing that, it is useful to understand the dominant discourse in India about the MSR. The Indian strategic community believes that the MSR can potentially help China consolidate its naval / maritime strategy of access and basing in the Indian Ocean in support of PLA Navy’s future operations. Further, the MSR is essentially a Chinese ploy to dismiss the notion of ‘string of pearls’ strategy, dispel the ‘China threat’ in the Indian Ocean, and legitimize its engagement in various maritime infrastructure projects along the route. China is also facing a number of problems in East and South China Sea over the Senkaku Island with Japan and South China Sea with the Philippines and Vietnam. It must also contend with the United States with whom these is a near continuous ‘silent tension’ which at times shows up in the form of incidents at sea and now in the air. In essence, China has its hands full with a number of strategic ‘hot spots’ that can affect its ambitions and aspirations of its ‘peaceful and harmonius’ development.

It appears that government in New Delhi may have been pushed into a ‘MSR dilemma’. On the one hand, ‘come, and make in India’ is the new mantra of the government, while on the other the ‘China threat’ looms large in the minds of the policy makers given that little progress has been made to resolve the boundary issue in the Himalayas, systematic buildup of military infrastructure along the border, and deployment of missiles in Tibet that may be targeting Indian strategic installations.

India would be tempted to part take what the Chinese offer in terms of the MSR but would China be willing to address bilateral security issues. New Delhi would also not like to be caught in a position where it is accused of cozying up to Japan who have offered nearly US $ 33 billion in investment in India, and deprive China of such opportunities.

Vijay Sakhuja
Director, National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi

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Obama’s New Strategy Towards The Islamic State: Implications For India – Analysis

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By PR Chari

In his widely anticipated 15th anniversary address on the 9/11 attacks, President Obama has clarified his objectives in the Middle East: “We will degrade, and ultimately destroy, [the Islamic State] through a comprehensive and sustained counterterrorism strategy.”

Its contours are taking shape, but the new strategy would involve airstrikes against militants and training the moderate opposition fighters in Syria. The US will wage war against the Islamic extremists and the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Wary of domestic opposition to getting mired in another overseas conflict after Iraq and Afghanistan, Obama emphasized that he would seek Congressional approval and international support from America’s Middle East and NATO allies.

Could American air power and the ground forces of its partners destroy the Islamic State? There is enough realism around to appreciate that al Qaeda, ISIS and similar extremist organizations propagate beguiling ideals of equality, freedom, religious purity and so on to confront the Western alliance, headed by the United States. It is difficult to defeat an ideal, but its baneful effects can certainly be contained. This understanding, is currently informing Obama’s rejuvenated counter-insurgency strategy premised on assured domestic support and the cooperation of allies, but restricting military action to airstrikes and leaving ground action to allies.

Only a modest augmentation of US troops in Iraq is envisaged, raising their total number to around 1500 for performing advisory functions by manning tactical operations centers, protecting American personnel and helping local security forces. An important, though unstated, component of this revised strategy is human intelligence to pinpoint the location of individual militant leaders for elimination by air and ground action. Jordan is critical here.

The new Obama strategy envisages training the Free Syrian Army. Saudi Arabia has apparently agreed to provide facilities in its territory for their training and turning them turned around to combat the Islamic extremists and the Assad regime. The dangers of this radical policy are two-fold. First, the US and its allies, including Saudi Arabia, would be getting embroiled in an enlarging Shia- Sunni sectarian conflict, with the lines of division getting increasingly blurred. Thus Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United States are becoming uneasy partners to confront the ISIS and al Qaeda. But, Iran, alongside remnants of the Iraqi and Assad regime still feel obligated to support Hamas against Israel. How Obama’s revised Middle East strategy will sidestep these land mines of Middle East politics remains to be seen.

So, what do these developments signify for India?

First, Obama’s 9/11 strategy is designed to ensure the continued American presence in the Middle East; its vestigial continuance would, hopefully, protect US national interests. It can similarly be adduced that the US will not leave Afghanistan altogether after 2014, but elements will remain in Bagram and other secure bases to enable air- and drone-strikes against identified militant forces. Air-strikes do not win wars, but they can seriously degrade the morale of rebel forces and weaken them by decapitating their leadership. It would be in India’s interests to support the US presence in Afghanistan, especially with the al Qaeda threatening to turn its attention against India. A dialogue with the US to firm up greater cooperation in this regard is called for.

Second, it has been wryly observed that one assured supply source for ready weapons in ISIS’s brutal efforts to overrun Iraq and Syria is the US taxpayer. Significant numbers of semi-automatic rifles have been captured by ISIS from military stockpiles in Iraq and Syria, apart from heavier weapons like anti-tank HEAT (High-Explosive Anti-Tank) and shoulder-fired anti-tank rockets that can destroy armored vehicles. Much the same situation might arise in Afghanistan after the departure of US and ISAF forces. According to reports significant numbers of vehicles, small arms and ammunition will be left behind as they are prohibitively costly to ship back to the United States. Much of this materiel might find its way into India via terrorist groups operating in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, but with interests in Kashmir. How this menace should be thwarted requires urgent consultations with the United States.

Third, the growth of sectarianism in the Middle East crisis should concern India. Extremists in the Middle East have targeted Christians and other ethnic minorities, but also rival schisms within Islam. The Shia-Sunni divide has become corrosive, which is also excoriating South Asia, especially Pakistan and Afghanistan, but also India. This rapid growth in sectarianism has to be guarded against, especially with the coming into power in New Delhi of a political party with militant Hindu roots. Concerns here are not ill-founded.

Obama’s newly minted Middle East policy will therefore have much wider repercussions, including the US pivot towards Asia that concerns India; further developments here will require India’s vigilant attention.

The post Obama’s New Strategy Towards The Islamic State: Implications For India – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Palestinian Reconciliation At Crossroads – OpEd

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President Mahmoud Abbas and the Fatah movement, which he commands, have unleashed a media campaign against Hamas and the resistance. If pressure from the Palestinian public fails to stop the campaign, Abbas may achieve politically what Israel failed to achieve militarily: forcing the Palestinian presidency to choose “peace with Israel” over national reconciliation.

It appears that President Abbas has, indeed, prioritised “peace with Israel.” He has devised plans for resuming negotiations, and is still banking on American support for such talks. This is the only explanation for the current anti-Hamas media campaign.

Abbas sent his negotiators — Saeb Erekat, Majed Faraj and Maen Erekat — to Washington, where they met with US Secretary of State John Kerry a week ago last Wednesday. US State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki described the more than two-hour meeting as “constructive”. Abbas then prepared to obtain an Arab mandate, which seems guaranteed in advance, for his plans from the 142nd session of the Arab foreign ministers conference, held in Cairo this week.

However, US Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power poured cold water over the Palestinian Authority (PA) president’s bid to obtain US backing for his plan, which he intends to put before the UN Security Council and UN General Assembly. The proposal would end the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza within three years, during which period negotiations would resume within three months with the occupying power over its borders with the Palestinian state.

“We don’t think there are shortcuts or unilateral measures that can be taken at the United Nations or anyplace else that will bring about the outcome that the Palestinian people most seek,” Power said in a press conference last week. “To think that you can come to New York and secure what needs to be worked out on the ground is not realistic.”

This clearly translates into an unequivocal US “No.” The Palestinian president’s new plan has run up against the same American wall that Palestinian negotiators have faced since negotiations were adopted as a strategic approach. The Zionist route remains the only way these negotiators can access the White House and the UN Security Council.

There can be only one explanation for this plan. It is in fulfilment of a Palestinian promise not to resist the occupation and to offer the occupying power the opportunity to agree to yet another futile round of negotiations. Such negotiations will give Israel the time it needs to turn the Givaot colony into a major settler city on the 4,000 dunams of Palestinian land that it has just seized by declaring it “state land”.

The purpose of this appropriation is to separate the Hebron and South Bethlehem governorates in the West Bank. It is also a means to deflect international humanitarian pressure in reaction to Israeli war crimes in Gaza, to evade Israel’s obligations to the truce agreement with the resistance in Gaza, and to fuel internal Palestinian tensions until they reignite once more.

It was not Hamas or the resistance that described Abbas’s new plan as a “spurious process”. It was independent Palestinian figures who expressed their views in a statement read out by Mamdouh Al-Akr, general commissioner of the Independent Organisation of Human Rights, on 2 September in Ramallah. They called for an urgent meeting of the unified leadership of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), in accordance with the Cairo agreement of 2011, so that it can serve as a frame of reference for the Palestinian will and take critical national decisions.

Activating the unified leadership framework of the PLO will put President Abbas’s call for a “single Palestinian central authority”, uniquely empowered to “determine matters of war and peace”, into its concrete national context. Only this context can confer legitimacy on a Palestinian leadership that does not derive its authority from resisting the occupation in all forms.

Moreover, the currently missing “electoral legitimacy” is no longer sufficient in and of itself to allow Palestinian decisions on war and peace to remain in the hands of a leadership that is the product of elections that were held with the approval of the occupation power and in the framework of agreements signed with it.

The Palestinian presidency has dropped the available option of resistance from the lexicon of its negotiating strategy, let alone the option of war, which is not available. The PA, in coordination with the occupation’s security apparatus, has become “the security proxy for the occupying power, rather than an instrument to end the occupation and establish the state,” as Palestinian analyst Hani Al-Masri wrote on 26 August.

As a result, the occupying power, alone, holds the keys to the decision of war, which it continues to repeat, and to the decision of peace, which it still refuses to take.

It appears that President Abbas is working against the tide of Palestinian public opinion, as voiced in a recent survey conducted by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) in Ramallah. According to this poll, only 22 per cent of respondents supported a resumption of negotiations, while 53 per cent said they regarded resistance as “the more effective way” to realise the creation of a Palestinian state.

The results of the PCPSR poll contradict all the charges levelled by the president and Fatah against the resistance and Hamas. Of those polled, 79 per cent believe that the resistance emerged victorious from the recent war, while 86 per cent support the defensive use of rockets.

Respondents gave very low ratings to the performance of the Palestinian president, the PA, the national unity government and the PLO, while the approval rating for Hamas was 88 per cent.

What is the substance of this media campaign against Hamas? It ranges from blaming Hamas for prolonging the war and for the consequent loss of lives and material damage, to adopting the Israeli narrative regarding a Hamas-engineered “coup attempt” against the president in the West Bank and the existence of a “shadow government” in Gaza that prevents the national unity government from functioning.

Then there are the charges of keeping Fatah members under “house arrest”, of “opening fire on civilians”, and of “selling emergency relief on the black market.” On top of these come the accusation that Hamas has violated “the law that defines the colours and dimensions of the flag.”

President Abbas’s instructions to create a “committee to hold a dialogue” with Hamas to discuss the “fate of the national unity government,” as announced by Amin Maqboul, secretary of the Fatah Revolutionary Council, does little to encourage optimism. The national unity government, national reconciliation, the Cairo agreement of 2011, the unified leadership framework that it stipulated, and the reactivation of the PLO, all stand at a crossroads.

This is because of the confrontation stirred by the systematic smear campaign that President Abbas and the Fatah movement are waging against Hamas and the resistance. The campaign has created a media smokescreen behind which the occupation authority can conceal its foot-dragging in carrying out its obligations under the truce agreement, which will probably be echoed in Israeli procrastination on continuing with truce talks due to be held in Cairo.

It should also be stressed that to accuse the resistance and Hamas of prolonging the war is to exonerate the occupation power of responsibility. The Israeli media was quick to capitalise on this, further proof of the extensive coverage the campaign has received.

Indeed, Israeli government spokesman Mark Regev virtually reiterated it verbatim when he said that the Egyptian initiative was on the table from 15 July and that while the Arab League and Israel had approved the initiative, Hamas rejected it, only to turn around and agree to it a month later. “If [Hamas] had agreed then to what it agrees to now” it would have been possible “to avoid all that bloodshed,” he said.

The investigatory commission appointed by the UN Human Rights Council will most likely cite the president’s charges to strengthen the claims of the occupying power, as these charges would be regarded as “testimony of a witness from the other side.”

Abbas says that while the “final toll” from the most recent war in Gaza was 2,140 dead, “if added to the number of dead in previous wars, and those who died during the period of the Shalit problem, the number would be 10,000 dead and wounded, in addition to the 35,000 homes that were totally or partially destroyed.”

When Abbas says that “it would have been possible” to avert the human and material losses of the recent conflict he is effectively blaming the resistance, not the occupation, for the last war on Gaza and the two wars since 2008 that preceded it.

The spectre of discord once again hovers over Palestinian unity, with Palestinian opinion divided over a programme of negotiations versus a programme of resistance. This is the breach through which Arab and non-Arab “axes” penetrate into the Palestinian interior, deepening rather than mending Palestinian rifts.

Nicola Nasser is a veteran Arab journalist based in Birzeit, West Bank of the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories (nassernicola@ymail.com). This article was first published and translated from Arabic by Al-Ahram Weekly on September 11, 2014.

The post Palestinian Reconciliation At Crossroads – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Terrorists, Drug Traffickers Forge Unholy Alliance

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By Imrane Binoual

Amid fears Islamic State (ISIS) fighters are inspiring jihadists outside the Middle East, analysts warn the group has emboldened extremists in the Sahel-Sahara zone.

Islamist groups who belong to the al-Qaeda franchise have already firmly implanted themselves across swathes of territory. This ongoing threat, combined with the advance of ISIS, prompted the African Union on September 2nd to hold its first-ever conference on terrorism.

African spy chiefs, who met in Nairobi last month ahead of the conference, also raised alarm over “alliances being built by terror groups worldwide, sophisticated sources of funding” and Africa’s “porous borders”, AFP reported.

African jihadists are apparently watching and learning from ISIS, experts warn.

“The scale and sophistication of recent attacks, along with the increased regionalisation of terrorism by Boko Haram, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and al-Shabaab, demand a more robust collective response, both at the regional and continental level,” the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) said in a recent paper.

The African Union summit in the Kenyan capital began hours after a US drone strike in Somalia killed Ahmed Abdi Godane (aka Mukhtar Abu al-Zubayr), the commander of al-Shabaab.

“We are concerned about the peace and stability of our continent,” Chadian President and AU Security Council chief Idriss Déby Itno said as he opened the Nairobi event.

Just a few weeks ago, the council issued a comprehensive report on Sahel security dangers.

“The link between terrorism, drug trafficking and cross-border crime gives the armed terrorist and criminal groups the capacity of regeneration and nuisance that threatens all the countries of the Sahel and beyond,” the August 13th report said. “This situation is worsened by the porous nature of the borders and weak capacity of states to cope with it.”

“The continued deterioration of the political and security situation in Libya compounds the security concerns in the region,” the AU report added.

For Maghreb countries, there’s yet another problem.

Morocco seized a record 226 kilos of cocaine, with an estimated market value of some 20 million euros, police said on Monday (September 8th). The drugs were hidden in cases of fish inside a refrigerated lorry that had come from the south of the country.

The incident highlights the nexus between drugs, crime and border security in the region. Not only are illegal drugs making their way across Maghreb borders, proceeds from drug sales help fund terror operations. And the ties between terrorists and drug lords span the globe.

There’s even a nickname for how cocaine gets to Africa from South America.

According to the Mediterranean Company of Analysis and Strategic Intelligence – CMAIS – the route is dubbed “Highway 10″. The name refers to the 10th parallel: the shortest path between the continents, whether by sea or air.

The drugs move through the Maghreb, then on to Europe.
Tunisia border a danger zone

As early as last December, Algerian Prime Minister Abdelmalek Sellal alerted Tunisian authorities that terrorist groups in Jebel Chaambi were funded from the proceeds of smuggled contraband.

Tunisia’s frontiers are hotbeds for extremists, jihadists and criminals, the International Crisis Group pointed out last fall. Hard drugs, weapons, and explosives were entering Tunisia on a regular basis from Libya, the research body said in a detailed report, calling the phenomenon “Islamo-gangsterism”.

These gangs blend jihadism and organised crime.

“Terrorist movements and smuggling networks have entered into a tight relationship in the border areas, especially in areas that are clearly underdeveloped,” the report said.

Drug traffickers smuggle cocaine through the Sahel with the help of terrorists, using caravan routes. And this criminal partnership is providing deadly extremists with yet another source of revenue.

Islamist groups in the Sahel, such as AQIM, MUJAO, Ansar al-Dine and Boko Haram, are running thanks to profits from cocaine.

There are two main sources of financing for terrorist groups, CMAIS head Mountacir Zian tells Magharebia: drug trafficking and kidnapping for ransoms.

“There is an established connection between drug traffickers in Latin America, including Colombia, and armed gangs in the Sahel region. Large quantities of drugs are coming from Latin America, either by plane or by boat,” he underlines.

Terrorists profit in several ways from their partnerships with drug traffickers.

“Because they exchange their drug transportation service for weapons, telecommunications technology, etc. This enables them to send recruits to be trained in Syria and other regions, to spread propaganda on the internet, to print pamphlets, make videos, distribute tapes and so on,” he explains.

And the Sahel-Sahara has proven to be a boon for foreign drug lords, notes another top regional security analyst, Mohamed Benhammou.

The traffickers found an alternative route in Africa, says Benhammou, who heads both the African Federation for Strategic Studies (FAES) and the Moroccan Centre for Strategic Studies (CMES).

“This route makes it possible for drugs such as cocaine to be trafficked from Latin America to countries in West Africa, the Sahel and the Sahara,” Benhammou continues.

“A kilogram of cocaine now changes hands for between 26,000 and 27,000 euros in the countries of the Sahel and the Sahara,” he says.

After the cocaine arrives, it is moved on ancient caravan routes by armed gangs operating under the protection of jihadists.

These trafficking cartels have found support from the very active networks in West Africa and the Sahel and Sahara, Benhammou says.

“It’s an area that used to see a lot of smuggling of cigarettes, fuel, food and other items… so smuggling is very well established,” the analyst adds.

According to Khalid Chegraoui, a professor at the Institute for African Studies, trafficking from the Sahel towards North Africa and Europe has grown steadily over the past few years, primarily due to the arrival of jihadist groups.

“Many members of these movements were and still are well-known traffickers, such as Mokhtar Belmokhtar, who was a big cigarette-smuggler in his early days and is now one of the leaders of terrorism in the Sahel and Sahara,” Chegraoui says.

No one can deny the “congenital” links between drug trafficking and terrorism, says Hatem Ben Salem, a former Tunisian education minister turned security expert.

“With the emergence of sophisticated new technology to maintain security and monitor European borders, South American drug barons exploited the areas of lawlessness that arose after the events in Libya and Tunisia in 2011 to create new drug trafficking routes to Europe,” he says.

Trafficking activity is dangerously attractive to idle young people in border regions in Maghreb countries, Ben Salem points out.

The situation of instability and insecurity has created new players, he notes, adding that considerable amounts of money have been used to buy the co-operation of local communities, which have become links in the drug trafficking chain.

“With the money generated by the trafficking of drugs, especially cocaine, the complex terrorist web is now becoming a major threat to the strategic balance of the Maghreb. It is also one of the main causes of instability in the Euro-Mediterranean region,” the former minister tells Magharebia.

“The role of terrorist groups is no longer limited to protecting convoys that transport drugs to Libyan and Tunisian ports. It has now expanded to controlling the trade in drugs and other illegal items,” Ben Salem adds.

The arrival of the terrorists boosted trafficking, Chegraoui adds. “This has enabled the Islamist groups that are directly co-operating with the cartels in Latin America to keep going, and has side-lined local populations, making them mere smugglers,” he says.

At the African Union summit, Chadian President Idriss Deby drove home the danger: “The attacks in the Sahel region, terrorist acts of the Boko Haram in Nigeria and other parts of west Africa… only motivate us to intensify efforts to combat this scourge.”

“Terrorism and organised crime compels us to take common action,” he said.

The post Terrorists, Drug Traffickers Forge Unholy Alliance appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Uranium And Nuclear Power: Three Indian Stories – Analysis

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By Manpreet Sethi

In one of his short stories entitled “Higher Mathematics”, written during the period 1935-1950, R K Narayanan had jocularly written “Any news that mentions the atom becomes suspect these days”. Nothing much has changed in the many decades since then. News about the atom still evinces much interest. Three stories related to nuclear energy dominated the Indian media during the first two weeks of September. It is worth examining the import of the three, individually and collectively, to understand the big picture pertaining to the nuclear energy programme in India.

The first news that broke early in September was the decision by Australia to sell uranium to India. This is big deal considering the hard line view that this possessor of nearly 31% of the world’s uranium has traditionally taken against supplying uranium to non-NPT countries. Though India was granted a waiver by the NSG (of which Australia is a member) in 2008 itself, it has taken six long years since then, and long-winded bilateral negotiations since 2011, for the domestic politics in Australia to come around to acknowledging that India could be trusted with its uranium.

Meanwhile, for India the good news is not just the availability of uranium for its operational and planned reactors, but even more importantly, the availability of good quality uranium. Dr Kakodkar, former Chairman DAE, once mentioned that the quality of Indian uranium is so poor that it is akin to the tailings that are thrown away by the Australian mining industry. The input of high quality fuel, soon from Australia besides Canada, Mongolia, France and Kazakhstan, would expectedly enhance the capacity factors of Indian reactors.

The second news, on 6 Sept, related to the record established by the indigenous nuclear power plant at Rawatbhatta, Rajasthan, RAPS-5, by operating in an uninterrupted manner over a period of 765 days. This 220 MW plant first became operational in 2010. It is to the credit of the good maintenance of the plant by the operator, NPCIL, that enabled this record performance. According to the DAE, during the period of the continuous operation of the plant, the NPCIL earned a revenue of Rs 1225 crores which practically redeemed the total cost of Rs 1200 crores that had been spent on the construction of the plant. The plant, given proper maintenance and safety checks, yet has a life of nearly 30 – 40 years. And even more importantly, it produces this electricity that lights an estimated 2.5 million homes in Rajasthan and UP without adding any greenhouse gases to the environment. This is no mean achievement and certainly worthy of being emulated so that nuclear energy can meaningfully add to India’s energy mix.

However, this can only be possible if there is a favourable public opinion that supports the ambitious nuclear expansion plans of the government. Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had announced a high target of 63,000 MWe of nuclear energy generation by 2030. He did work towards making this possible through obtaining the exceptionalisation of India and thereby enabling its entry into international nuclear commerce. Consequently, India today has nuclear agreements/MoUs with nearly a dozen countries that will bring in uranium, equipment and reactors into the country.

However, the chance of India being able to exploit the promise held in these agreements is adversely impacted by news of the kind that appeared in Indian press on 7 September — a day after DAE proudly announced its record achievement and less than a week after the Australian decision to supply uranium to India on the basis of its confidence in its nuclear safety and non-proliferation credentials. This story, claimed to be based on an RTI reply obtained by an activist, ascribes 70% of the deaths in India’s atomic energy hubs to cancer. A headline of this nature in a prominent national daily calls for a response from the DAE if it is to address public concern in a transparent manner. Non-availability of credible information from authentic sources, and more importantly in a language that is not easily understandable to the common man, provides room for mischief by opponents of nuclear power. Silence of the DAE on a report such as this does even more harm than the report itself. DAE needs to counter this with credible data provided loud and clear.

It is noteworthy that India is currently in the process of year long celebrations of the Diamond Jubilee of the DAE. On his first visit to the DAE in July this year, Prime Minister Modi exhorted the organisation to place special focus on human and developmental dimensions of atomic science, with special outreach to the youth in schools and colleges, in order to present a human face to its achievements. This is indeed the need of the hour. If India is to encash its many years of safe reactor operating experience, build on a record of the kind made by RAPS 5, make use of the opportunity of tapping into the international commercial opportunities, then it must handle domestic public concerns of nuclear safety with transparency, sensitivity and understanding.

Manpreet Sethi
ICSSR Senior Fellow affiliated with the Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS)

The post Uranium And Nuclear Power: Three Indian Stories – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

US Launches First ‘Offensive’ Airstrike On ISIS Near Baghdad

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The United States launched at least one airstrike against Islamic State militants near Baghdad on Monday, marking the expansion of the US military campaign against the extremist group. The airstrike was reportedly requested by Iraqi forces under attack.

According to US officials cited by the Associated Press, the airstrike was authorized after Iraqi security forces requested air power support as they engaged Islamic State (IS) fighters south of Baghdad.

An unnamed defense official, meanwhile, told NBC News that the most recent air attack near Baghdad was an “offensive” strike, and there was no suggestion that militants were making headway towards the country’s capital.

US Central Command confirmed the air strike and affirmed that it was part of a new phase in the battle against IS.

Previous airstrikes in Iraq were characterized by the US as “defensive” in nature, as they were used to protect American diplomatic sites as well as crucial Iraqi facilities like the Mosul Dam.

By directly supporting Iraqi forces from the air as they participated in what ABC News described as a “firefight,” officials say the US is beginning to act on President Barack Obama’s strategy to actively engage the Islamic State (IS). As Obama announced last week, his plan is to “degrade and ultimately destroy” the group through expanded airstrikes and by forming a coalition against it.

Additionally, the US also launched at least one airstrike near Sinjar Mountain in northwestern Iraq, where ethnic minorities like the Yazidis were previously cornered by militants and faced starvation.

The offensive strike comes as the US attempts to cobble together an international coalition in order to fight the militants in Iraq and Syria. Countries including France and Australia have committed themselves to taking part in the aerial campaign, according to CNN. France is currently carrying out reconnaissance flights over Iraq, while Australia is sending aircraft to the United Arab Emirates for potential deployment.

The United Kingdom, meanwhile, has said it would arm the Kurds in northern Iraq and continue offering humanitarian aid.

So far, most US allies, including those in the region – Jordan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia – have ruled out deploying ground forces to fight IS militants. Saudi Arabia has said it would train Syrian rebels on its soil in light of Washington’s proposal to arm factions that will fight against the extremists.

US Secretary of State John Kerry told CBS that some countries have offered to deploy ground troops in the fight, but it was unclear exactly which nations he was referring to. State Department officials noted that Kerry’s statement did not refer to Western or Arab forces.

Meanwhile, Iran – considered a critical player in the Middle East’s latest conflict – has turned down an American offer to join an international effort to fight IS, according to the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“The American ambassador in Iraq asked our ambassador [to Iraq] for a session to discuss coordinating a fight against Daesh [Islamic State],” he said.

“Our ambassador in Iraq reflected this to us, which was welcomed by some [Iranian] officials, but I was opposed. I saw no point in cooperating with a country whose hands are dirty and intentions murky.”

As the US considers launching airstrikes in Syria as well, a senior White House official stated on Monday that any attempt by Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government to interfere with American efforts to fight IS would be met with retaliation against his air defenses. The US has ruled out cooperating with Assad – whose government it opposes – in order to target militants inside of Syria.

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BBC’s Anti-Independence Campaign Enrages Scots

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Pro-independence Scots rallied outside the BBC’s Glasgow headquarters on Sunday to protest the public broadcaster’s pro-union “bias” and demand the resignation of political editor Nick Robinson.

Waving Scottish flags and “Yes Scotland” banners, protesters chanted, “You can stick your license fee up your a***!” while banners read “Auntie Beeb, anti-democracy, anti-truth”.

One giant banner read: “Sack Nick ‘The Liar’ Robinson, a totally corrupt journalist, these days typical of the British Biased Corporation.”

All police leave has been canceled for Thursday’s referendum, when 3.5 million Scots are expected to cast their votes. Polling staff have been warned to expect “confrontational behaviour”.

As the referendum date approaches, abuse, vandalism and threats of violence have allegedly accompanied both the “Yes” and “No” campaigns.

Pro-union “Better Together” chairman Alistair Darling has warned Scots not to be bullied into a “Yes” vote, and claimed he had felt “menaced” during the campaign.

“I have been involved in political campaigning for about 35 years and I have never seen anything like this before,” Darling told journalists.

The BBC faced accusations of anti-independence bias after Robinson produced a report that wrongly claimed Salmond had ignored his question during a heated press conference in Edinburgh last week.

Calling into question the impartiality of the license fee-funded broadcaster, the veteran BBC correspondent edited out Salmond’s lengthy answer, in which the First Minister claimed the BBC had skewed facts and colluded with the Treasury to undermine the “Yes” campaign.

Salmond has repeated his allegation that the BBC is “absolutely” biased for the Union. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has proposed replacing BBC Scotland with a Scottish Broadcasting Service after independence.

With three days remaining until the vote, Prime Minister David Cameron has made his 10th and final campaign visit to Scotland to warn voters that there will be “no way back” if they choose to leave the UK, calling the vote “a once-and-for-all decision.”

Official London initially tried with fear mongering and then outright bribes to prevent a ‘yes’ vote. From you’re doomed and no ne will have pensions, to “we’ll let you control more money, make more decisions”.

In reality, independent Scotland would be much richer than England, because it will keep 90% of its oil revenues. In the end, it’s all about oil and London prefers to keep control of Scottish oil reserves.

As irony would have it, now Wales has begun talking about independence.

The post BBC’s Anti-Independence Campaign Enrages Scots appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Hungary: Going In The Wrong Direction? – Analysis

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By John R. Haines

“This country’s history was written by its enemies…We are the descendants of the Scythian-Hun people, who at one time ruled all of Asia…Our enemies encouraged us to forget that we were Huns…to deny our origins and deprive us of hope in the future in order to subjugate us once and for all.”

“The God of the Hungarians will not forget…We will raise a Hungarian nation in which the people live and think as Hungarians and do not just speak the Hungarian language. Our ancestors dared to be Hungarians. What are we afraid of?”[1]-László Botos

Let no one say the past is dead.
The past is all about us and within.
Haunted by tribal memories, I know
This little now, this accidental present
Is not the all of me, whose long making
Is so much of the past. -Oodgeroo, “The Past”[2]

“HUNGARY IS GOING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION”[3]

Hungary’s new official state ideology, according to philosopher Gáspár Miklós Tamás, is “a mixture of euro-skeptic nationalism and ethnicism.” To wit, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s statement after taking his oath of office in May 2014, “In the European Union elections we must tell Brussels loudly and resolutely: respect the Hungarians!”[4] Orbán’s foreign policy was summarized recently as “maneuver[ing] between Brussels and Russia.”[5] An August 2014 op-ed in the English language The Moscow Times put it more harshly:

“The wind is ‘blowing from the East.’ That’s how Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has described the recent swirl of Russian precedent and influence, the storm of ethnic chauvinism and anti-Brussels sentiment that begins in Moscow and whips low across the Ukrainian plains. This storm is currently sweeping across Donetsk, and if Orbán has his way, it’s heading directly toward the EU. How the EU will handle this rapidly approaching reality remains anyone’s guess.”[6]

The reference is to Orbán’s November 2010 speech introducing his “Eastern Opening” policy, in which he said ‘We are sailing under a Western flag, though an Eastern wind is blowing in the world economy.”[7]

That Eastern wind can also blow cold on the Hungarian economy: in mid-August, Economy Minister Mihály Varga urged a meeting of the Hungarian-Russian economic joint committee to discuss how “Hungarian-Russian economic relations could be kept alive.”[8] This followed closely on the heels of a similar call by Hungary’s State Secretary for Foreign Affairs Péter Szijjártó, and earlier ones by Jobbik Magyarországért Mozgalom (“Movement for a Better Hungary”), an ethno-nationalist political movement. Jobbik’s deputy head of parliament’s foreign affairs committee Márton Gyöngyösi, who called on the Orbán government to request compensation from Brussels and to initiate direct talks with Russia.[9] The Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry made a similar call for compensation from Brussels to offset losses incurred as a result of the sanctions.[10]

illiberal-660x438Total exports to Russia amounts to about €2.5 billion, and Varga estimated that Russia’s one-year embargo on agricultural imports from EU states, Hungary included— an act described by Foreign Minister Tibor Navracsics as a “heavy, unilateral boycott”— was costing Hungary some €223,000 per day.[11] According to Varga, Hungary might “find mediators [sic] through which Hungarian goods could still reach Russia or Ukraine,” but in any event, “it would be necessary to reconsider the entire policy of sanctions against Russia.”[12] Russia quickly ruled out one “mediator”: Hungarian-Russian joint ventures[13] operating in Hungary would not be exempt from Russia’s import ban, which applies to the country of origin of the products, not the ownership of the venture producing them.[14] As to the EU sanctions, Orbán said earlier in the month, “We have shot ourselves in the foot” because the EU sanctions “hurt us more than Russia.”[15] These concerns are more than rhetorical: Hungary’s long-term contract for Russian gas, signed in 1996, expires in 2015.

THE “PEACOCK DANCE”

Orbán describes his pávatánc (“peacock dance”) as careful choreography “in which elements of agreement, consensus, defiance and resistance need to be mixed, in a very complicated string of tactical actions” to feign eagerness and fool a negotiating partner. Orbán appears to behave according to agreed-upon rules in order to avoid outside interference, while in reality, he acts solely according to his own interest. “These movements,” Orbán explained, “belong to the art of politics.”

His pávatánc expresses a studied ambiguity about the West. He professes “It is a big question whether the West changed or whether we began to view it differently once we got there,”[16] and warns he will not sacrifice “the one-thousand-year-old Hungary on the altar of some kind of European United States.”[17] He asserts what Michael Roth called a Lex Ungarn: “I am among those who wanted a Hungarian, not an eastern, not a western, but a Hungarian country that stands on its own legs, travels its own path and turns on its own axis.”[18] Orbán is quick to condition Hungary’s “Western flag”:

“Hungary is part of the Western alliance system, NATO and the European Union. There is no doubt about this, nor will there be during our administration. We are, however, members of these alliances and not hostages.”[19]

And he is just as quick to praise Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union: “Hungary considers this to be a positive global-economic development. We do not want to be excluded from this opportunity.” However, as a recent headline proclaimed, “The Orbán doctrine has collapsed after three days”[20] with Russia’s mid-August incursion into eastern Ukraine. So much for talk that “Hungary cannot stop at the edge of the carpet,” described by one commentator as “a doctrine with no principles, just interests.”

Orbán’s footwork has been similarly clumsy regarding his “doctrine of illiberalism” articulated in the Tasnádürdő/Băile Tușnad speech. Some have defended Orbán by claiming that his meaning was purposefully misconstrued: what he intended, they say, was a critique of the “liberal” government he replaced in 2010, which among its many deficiencies did not recognize Hungarians living in the near-abroad as part of the greater Hungarian nation.[21] Recognizing, however, that “We must take the reaction of the international community into account because it may trigger actions the consequences of which are unfavorable” to Hungary,[22] another commentator concedes Orbán’s choice of “illiberalism” (something he claims is “a Western construct”[23]) was “unfortunate,” and suggests an alternative term, “national democracy” (nemzeti demokrácia),

Hungary’s European neighbors are increasingly less charmed by Orbán-as-Terpsichore. In late August, Michael Roth and Tomáš Prouza of the German and Czech foreign ministries, respectively, cautioned Hungary that the European Community “is far more than a common market: it is a community of values” in which “our common values…weld us together.”[24]

GREATER HUNGARY

As Tamás Bauer observed a few years ago, such phrases as “We were, we are, and we shall be” create the conditions “to make irredentism the state religion.”[25] The political rhetoric of Magna Hungaria (Hungarian: Nagy Magyarország) or “Greater Hungary” experienced a revival after the fall of the Hungarian People’s Republic in October 1989. It conceptualizes Hungary as a homogenous ethnic nation, extending geographically to all ethnic Hungarians living in the Carpathian basin.[26] In the words of Hungary’s first prime minister of the post-Communist period, József Antall, “in spirit he felt he was the prime minister not of ten, but of fifteen million Hungarians,” a sentiment meant to “evoke the loss Hungarians experienced following the 1920 Treaty of Trianon.”[27] Slovakia sees Magna Hungaria as a thinly disguised call for autonomy for Slovakia’s Hungarian minority, intended to lead to southern Slovakia’s annexation by Hungary, a perception common among Hungary’s neighbors.[28]

Contemporary Map of an Imagined "Greater Hungary"  Source: Nagy Magyarország http://domonyi.aries.hu/Nagy-Magyarorszag.html#.VBMRd5RdXTp

Contemporary Map of an Imagined “Greater Hungary”
Source: Nagy Magyarország http://domonyi.aries.hu/Nagy-Magyarorszag.html#.VBMRd5RdXTp

Hungarian philosopher and political scientist János Kis wrote in 2002, “The Status Law is Fidesz’s cherished child. If there is anything Orbán and his colleagues did from conviction, this is it.”[29] The statute entitled all Hungarian-speaking citizens in contiguous states[30] (except Austria) to specified legal preferences, and from the beginning was perceived as politically motivated and a security threat to Hungary’s neighbors with large ethnic Hungarian populations.[31]

So, too, the 2010 Act on Dual Citizenship, which extended “preferential naturalization…to non-Hungarian citizen whose ascendant was a Hungarian citizen or whose origin from Hungary is probable, and whose Hungarian language knowledge is proved.”[32] Among dual citizenship’s many effects it changed the contour of the Hungarian electorate: according to Deputy Prime Minister Zsolt Semjén, some 610,000 ethnic Hungarians living abroad applied for Hungarian citizenship in the last three and a half years.

It also provoked a predictable backlash abroad. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico exclaimed “we have to defend ourselves,” and Slovakia enacted its own Citizenship Act, revoking Slovak citizenship for anyone who acquire it of another state.[33] Lest anyone miss the point, Slovaks erected a Trianon memorial at the border town of Komárno (on the Elisabeth Bridge connecting Komárno and the Hungarian city of Komárom) on the occasion of the Treaty’s 90th anniversary to “remind everyone, but especially the gentlemen from Hungary, that they are crossing the Slovak border and entering Slovak land that will forever belong to us.”[34]

In late August, Deputy Prime Minister Zsolt Semjén asserted, “We are neither second-class citizens, nor a second-class people,” and declared that the Hungarian government “fully backs…all autonomy concepts developed by communities for their own survival.”[35] Speculating on the political motivation of Semjén and others, Slovak MP and vice-chair of the political party Most-HídIn,[36] Zsolt Simon, said:

“[T]he Hungarian government commenting and engaging in Hungarian minority issues in Slovakia, Romania or Croatia tries to divert attention away from the real internal problems in Hungary…Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán gave Hungarians living in Slovakia and Romania the opportunity to achieve Hungarian citizenship. Actions of this type aim only to get new votes for Fidesz, but also bring more bad than good for Hungarians living in these countries.”[37]

Moving west to Ukraine’s Transcarpathia (Kárpátalja to Hungarians), it has been said that “Although located at the heart of Europe,[38] Transcarpathia is a peripheral and forgotten region.”[39] To some, maybe, but not Orbán:

“Hungarians living in the Carpathian Basin deserve dual nationality, they deserve collective rights and they deserve autonomy. This is the viewpoint we shall support on the international political stage. All of this is of particular current interest as a result of the situation surrounding the 200,000-strong Hungarian community in Ukraine, which must receive dual nationality, must receive collective rights in their entirety and must receive the possibility of self-administration.”[40]

In mid-August, Orbán discussed representation of ethnic Hungarians[41] in Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada[42] with László Brenzovics, president of the Hungarian Cultural Association of Transcarpathia,[43] and Géza Gulácsy and József Barta, deputy presidents of the association. Simon’s point about diverting divert attention away from internal problems certainly seems applicable. Indeed, Hungary’s position on the conflict in eastern Ukraine is interesting for being almost entirely self-referencing: according to Foreign Minister Tibor Navracsics, Hungary’s goals are “a peaceful settlement and stabilization; to see Ukraine emerge from the crisis as a democratic, independent state with territorial integrity and respect for minority rights; and protecting the needs of the Transcarpathian Hungarian minority.”

He hastened to add that “It was crucial that the rights of Hungarians in Transcarpathia should not be curtailed nor their livelihoods jeopardized,” an oblique reference to the reinstatement of conscription in Ukraine. On that point, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavel Klimkin replied that conscription “would not affect ethnic Hungarians disproportionately.”[44] Jobbik was having none of this, however: “Transcarpathian Hungarians have nothing to do with the senseless bloodshed occurring thousands of kilometers away,” said Jobbik vice president, Szávay István, “This is not a war of the Hungarian people.”[45] Hungarian officials have persisted in the matter of the mobilization and deployment of ethnic Hungarians to the conflict in eastern Ukraine. In late August, Hungarian Human Resources Minister Zoltán Balog held discussions with Transcarpathia’s Governor, Valery Lunchenko, and the chairman of the Transcarpathian Regional Council (Zakarpats’ka Oblasna Rada), Ivan Baloga, during which the Transcarpathian leaders “gave reassuring answers concerning public safety, mobilization and keeping the staff of regional defense forces on Transcarpathia’s territory.”[46]

Hungary’s aim is to promote ethnic kinship and Magyar nationalism; it does not promote separatism that would result in autonomy, especially given that Hungarians constitute a minority of the territory’s residents. In early 2014, the Hungarian National Front,[47] a far right paramilitary group, claimed unspecified Western provocateurs were looking to “split Ukraine’s Hungarian population.”[48] This was important, it continued, because “Our country is in the process of a political realignment that will lead to Hungary’s accession to the Eurasian Union within two parliamentary cycles,”[49] i.e., eight years. This, it concluded, “will allow for the reunification of the Hungarian nation; thus, it benefits only the West if Transcarpathian Hungarians to seek autonomy at this time,”[50] the reason being that “the CIA wants to create a new State on the border of Ukraine and Hungary.”[51]

It should be said that recognition of the rights of ethnic Hungarians and other national minorities precedes Ukraine’s 1991 independence: in July 1990, the Ukrainian Supreme Soviet adopted a “Declaration on the State Sovereignty of Ukraine” to guarantee all ethnic groups the right to “national-cultural development”. The 1990 declaration followed the October 1989 language law, and was succeeded by the October 1991 citizenship law and the June 1992 law on national minorities, all of which contained relatively liberal provisions for ethnic minorities.[52] Ukraine’s June 1996 Constitution, while stipulating that the Ukrainian language is the only state language, guarantees the use and protection of Russian and other languages of national minorities (Article 10), and secures the development of the “ethnic, cultural, language and religious originality of all native peoples and national minorities of Ukraine” (Article 11). Ukraine also entered into a series of the bilateral agreements with Hungary on the protection of ethnic Hungarians in Transcarpathia, one goal of which was “to avoid another Bosnia-Herzegovina or Kosovo.” All that being said, the situation of ethic minorities circa 2000 was described as “rights in word, but not in deed”:

“Minorities in Ukraine can theoretically enjoy a high level of protection under several laws, but they are generally not used, or under-used. Kiev can pass as many laws as it would like to in accordance with international standards of protection for national minorities, but they mean nothing since they are not fully implemented.”[53]

CHOUKODAISHI,[54] HUNGARIAN-STYLE

“History has transmuted into myth in the modern era…It is our lost referential, that is to say, our myth.”[55] -Jean Baudrillard

“We are tired of Hungary and its complex about a rampaging, great imagined empire.”[56] -Bogdan Diaconu

Modern Hungary’s foundational myths project onto the para-history of a mythologized people and an enigmatic Eurasian homeland.[57]

“The origins of the Hungarians can be traced back to Ancient Mesopotamia through the Sumerian-Scythian-Hun-Avar-Magyar ethno-linguistic continuity, which, together with the evidence of the archeological artifacts of Sumerian origin found in the Carpathian Basin, indicates that the ancestors of the Hungarians were the first permanent settlers of the Carpathian Basin.”

“Within the Carpathian Basin as well as in their other homelands to the East, the preservation of Hungarian independence and culture was a constant struggle against foreign powers and foreign influences which sought to impose themselves upon the Hungarians: over the ages, foreign religions, cultures, languages, political regimes and rulers have been forced upon the Hungarians. In Hungary, the original ancient Hungarian culture, religion and language have been persecuted and suppressed since the forced Christianization of the country which began around 1000 AD.”

“…The apparent end of communism in 1990 did not bring the promised and expected national renewal in Hungary. The injustices of the past were not redressed. The former communists and their collaborators are still in power and still serving foreign interests. Millions of Hungarians are still forced to live under oppressive foreign regimes in the territories lost by Hungary after the two World Wars.”[58]

These sentiments have unleashed vices briefly (and it might be said, outwardly only) suppressed during the period of Soviet dominion, most pointedly, ahistorical notions of migration westward from Etelköz to the Carpathian Basin. Consider the following passage:[59]

“In Etelköz,[60] the Magyars[61] and other Hunnic tribes formed a tribal federation under the leadership of the Magyar tribe. This was sealed by the Covenant of Blood which… created the Magyar nation and it was in effect a constitution which provided for a democratic order and for the safeguarding of the nation’s interests from internal and external threats.”

“It was also from Etelköz that the Magyar tribal federation successfully executed the conquest of the Carpathian Basin in a series of carefully planned diplomatic and military maneuvers. The objective was to expel the powers which had occupied the Carpathian Basin following the collapse of the Avar empire (ca. 800 AD)[62]…With the successful completion of the settlement of the Carpathian Basin, Árpád and the other Magyar leaders held their first assembly at Pusztaszer, thus effectively establishing the Hungarian state on a firm constitutional basis.”[63]

“It is important to realize the great significance and strong link between these successive events: the Covenant of Blood of Etelköz, the Conquest and Settlement of the Carpathian Basin, the First Constitutional Assembly of Pusztaszer, and the military campaigns in Europe following the settlement. These acts laid the foundation for a Hungary, which was internally stable and externally secure in its status as a major power. These events should also be considered in the context of the Hun-Magyar identity and continuity.”

And what of the conquered persons of the Carpathian Basin, at least some whose descendants presumably dwell there today?[64] The simple answer: they, too, were Magyars:

“Another contentious issue is that of the ethnic identity of the populations which inhabited the Carpathian Basin at the time of the Magyar Conquest. One side claims this region was already inhabited by Slavic, ‘Daco-Roman’, Germanic and other non-Hungarian peoples that were oppressed by the ‘invading’ Magyars. The opposing view argues that the majority of the population already established in the Carpathian Basin was in fact ethnically related to the Magyars, and that today’s Hungarians are an amalgamation of these peoples whose settlement of the Carpathian Basin preceded that of the non-Hungarian ethnic groups currently settled there.”[65]

The historian Patrick Geary wrote in The Myth of Nations, “Only the horrors of the twentieth century have created the illusion that language and ethnicity could or should be mapable”:[66]

“Polish politicians compete to see who is the most Polish; Hungarians renew their disputes with Romanians to the east and Slovaks to the north…All these people inhabit areas that contain other ethnic minorities, and most have members living as minorities within areas dominated by other peoples. As a result, demands for political autonomy based on ethnic identity will inevitably lead to border conflicts, suppression of minority rights, and civil strife…”[67]

The political use of Magyar purposefully conflates ethnicity, a linguistic identity, with denization, a political identity:

“‘Hungarian’ has a state-political and territorial meaning, referring in the pre-1918 context to the multinational Kingdom of Hungary, ‘Historical Hungary’, which comprised all peoples and nationalities of the old Hungarian State. ‘Magyar’ on the other hand has a more specific ethno-national and linguistic meaning, referring to both the dominant group of ‘ethnic Hungarians’ and their language. In the Magyar language itself this distinction was usually not made, both denotations being referred to as magyar. But the Slovak language distinguished between the territorial-political uhorský (Hungarian) and the ethnic maďarský (Magyar), as did the German language between ungarländisch (Hungarian) and the ethnic ungarisch, magyarisch, or madjarisch.”[68]

As van Duin himself concludes, the “conflation of the two concepts lies at the heart of many problems” in modern Hungary, expressing in both ethnic chauvinism at home and demands for Hungarian autonomism in its near-abroad.[69] An illustration of the latter is clear in a joint statement from earlier this year issued by Jobbik and the Polish neo-fascist group Ruch Narodowy (“National Movement”):

“[W]e jointly call upon our governments to immediately unite their efforts in applying their foreign and national political means to protect the rights of ethnic minorities living in Ukraine, with special regard for the Polish and Hungarian groups. Our movements regard the representation of our national interest as a priority, which, at a time of an escalating crisis in Ukraine, translates into the protection of our brothers and sisters, the constituent parts of our nations living beyond our borders.”[70]

Nor is this sentiment limited to the far right Jobbik, as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe concluded a few years ago:

“Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, for example, advised ethnic Hungarian citizens of Romania on whether to participate in a recent referendum in that country, while members of the Hungarian Parliament convened a ‘national cohesion’ committee meeting in neighboring Slovakia. While non-violent, these actions are nonetheless provocative and undercut friendly and good neighborly relations among states. Moreover, this focus on ethnic Hungarians in neighboring states contrasts with the Hungarian Government’s own tepid response to anti-Semitism,[71] as well as threats and violence against the Roma within Hungary. To quote the High Commissioner: ‘As a guiding principle, States should not be more interested in minorities residing in neighboring States than those residing within their own borders.’”[72]

The High Commissioner may be right in principle, but in practice, other sentiments prevail. Case in point is a demand made in the name of Transylvania’s 1.5 million “Diaspora Hungarians” that “the time has come for Hungarian autonomy.” According to a statement in late July 2014 by the head of a civic organization[73] that represents ethnic Hungarians in Romania, László Tőkés, “only complete national independence can bring about the revival of the Hungarian community,”[74] a statement all the more remarkable for the fact that Tőkés, a Romanian MEP, is the former vice president of the European Parliament. Other voices in Romania sharply differ with Tőkés: in a vituperative May 2014 editorial published in the Romanian newspaper Adevărul under the headline “We are tired of Hungary,” Romanian parliamentarian Bogdan Diaconu accused Hungary of unalloyed irredentism, “following Kremlin doctrine” and seeking “to restore the territory of the Austro-Hungary monarchy.”[75] Diaconu wrote, “We are tired of Hungary and its elected Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the savior of the Hungarian nation, who in his first speech to Parliament said it was Hungary’s ‘right’ to control territories in neighboring countries and to give orders other nations.” He continued:

“We are tired of Hungary which agitates incessantly for the European Union to deal with the Hungarian minority; the Council of Europe to address Hungarian minority; the European Council to deal with the Hungarian minority; the European Commission to deal with the Hungarian minority; the European Parliament deal of the Hungarian minority; the United States to deal with the Hungarian minority; Russia to deal with the Hungarian minority; Romania to deal with the Hungarian minority; Ukraine to deal with the Hungarian minority; Slovakia to deal with the Hungarian minority; Serbia to deal with the Hungarian minority; Turkey to deal with the Hungarian minority; the Dalai Lama to deal with Hungarian minority…The whole universe must deal with the Hungarian minority and its imaginary problems.”[76]

THE POLITICS OF BAD SCIENCE & GENETIC IDENTITY IN MODERN HUNGARY

Ethnicity, like race, is a social construct: nearly all geneticists reject the idea that biological differences underly racial and ethnic distinctions.[77] The term itself often functions as a racialized euphemism rather than as a conceptual break from treating social identities as biological categories.[78] While there are measurable biologic correlates of ancestry, there is no objective physiologic or anatomic mark of race or ethnicity. As one study notes, self-designation is the “gold standard”[79] for assessing ethnicity and race, which are more properly descriptors of identity.[80]

Political exigencies aside, human populations in Hungary and elsewhere are seldom demarcated by precise genetic boundaries. Substantial overlap occurs between groups, invalidating the concept that populations are discrete types.[81] So while ancestral inference may be useful in genealogical studies, it should not be treated as probative of ethnicity or race. With that in mind, consider the following:

“In the second half of the 20th century a new science, the science of genetics, began to be used in the quest to find out more about the question who were the ancestors of the Hungarians, and in particular, who were the peoples that gave birth to a nation that began to emerge a millennium ago in the Hungarian homeland.”[82]

For its political expression, consider the comments of Jobbik MEP Csanád Szegedi after meeting the Kazakh ambassador:[83]

“[I]n the past centuries we have become accustomed our encirclement by hostile nations. We were annihilated out between a large Slavic and Germanic (sic) sea of which our internal enemies took cruel advantage. Now is the historical moment has come, to renew in the 21st century the natural covenant of our ancestors, the Scythians, Huns and Avars. A new and greater Turanian covenant is being created here today, and it will invigorate the Hungarian national consciousness, that we are not alone.”[84]

The referenced covenant is of course the Covenant of Blood of Etelköz. What, then, is the “Turanian” reference? The person to whom Szegedi alludes in his prologue [see: fn(83)] is András Zsolt Bíró, an anthropologist and human biologist. Bíró claimed to discover genetic evidence that the Hungarians’ closest relatives are a tribe called the Torgaji[85] madiar or madjar, in modern day Kazakhstan. According to Bíró, “We gathered Y-chromosomes from 40 nations and found that Hungarians, through paternal lineage, have ‘blood ties’ with the ‘madjar’ tribe of Kazakhstan.” Thus, “modern Hungarians may trace their ancestry to Central Asia, instead of the Eastern Uralic region as previously thought.”[86]

One implication of Bíró’s assertion is of course that Magyar-ness does not relate to where one was born, or to whether one speaks the language or adheres to a given set of beliefs. [87] Rather, it is that Hungarians are fundamentally different from surrounding peoples, and one’s Magyar-ness can be objectively determined through genetic testing.[88] This is a highly challengeable assertion: the weight of the evidence is that “the original Magyar genetic contributions have become very diluted over the centuries due in large part to intermarriage with European tribes. This means that the modern Hungarian people are only somewhat descended from the ancient Magyars whose language they speak.” Another critique of Bíró’s study goes further:

“The y-DNA tests done on Madijar men indicate that they are so distant genetically from Hungarians that any relationship between the two peoples is inconceivable. Crudely put, the argument used by Bíró and company sounds like this: the Madijars are genetically extremely distant from all other populations, and they are very distant from Hungarians: therefore they must be the closest relatives of Hungarians.”[89]

While there are “some Hungarian villages where the inhabitants possess small frequencies of Y-DNA haplogroups from Central Asia and Northern Asia,” Hungarians’ ancestral components (calculated that in terms of regional origins) are predominantly (83.1%) Atlantic-European.[90]

Dreisziger asks rhetorically: “how did the Hungarian nation get stuck with the argument that all the Magyars’ ancestors arrived in the Carpathian Basin at one time, at the end of the 9th century?” It is, he writes, a myth “propagated by members of the Árpádian ruling house of Hungary who ruled the country for four centuries— and, in fact, Hungary’s elite subscribed to this myth throughout a millennium of history.” It was a counter-ideology against both Western-oriented depictions of Hungarian historiography generally, and the ascendant Pan-Germanism and Pan-Slavism of the period specifically.[91]

“Old myths rarely die, or die very slowly,”[92] Dreisziger concludes, and nowhere more so than Hungary’s Jobbik. It advocates the mythical idea of Turánizmus (“Turanism”[93]), a movement that reached prominence as a political movement in the post-Trianon Hungary of the 1920s and 1930s promising to return Hungary to its supposed Eastern roots.[94] Associated with a virulently anti-Semitic[95] nationalism, Turanism provided the foundation for the pursuit of political and economic benefits beyond the Hungarian borders, not unlike German conceptions of Lebensraum.

“To have a national identity is to possess ways of talking about nationhood,” wrote Michael Billig.[96] Jobbik’s way is version of Turanism that exemplifies “various elements of far-right delusions of grandeur: hostility to Europe, arrogance and self-pity.”[97] Neo-Turanism à la Jobbik is perhaps best summarized by the lyrics of the song “I Am a Hungarian” by the “nationalist rock” band, Hungarica:

“I am a Hungarian, proud scion of the Hunnish, Avarian bow-stretching Scythians. I know that when hordes of barbarians were butchering one another on the ruins of Rome and the plague was raging, this was long the kingdom of God. Don’t tell me that my past stinks of fish[98] and that I have stolen words from here and there. What matters is the soul. The Middle Ages were dark elsewhere, and it wasn’t here that Galilei was sent to the stake.”

The reemergence of Turanism is interesting for the fact that “more than a generation grew up without knowing about Turanism in Hungary because it was forbidden in the communist era.”[99] Its potency lies in the fact that it is a bottom-up political movement reflecting disillusionment with Hungary’s “return to Europe,”[100] a sentiment well summarized by Jobbik deputy parliamentary leader, Márton Gyöngyösi:

“We have always been outsiders in Europe…For us, Turanism is a way to realize that we are not alone. We are in a huge cultural Turan family. We this need to find the deep interconnectedness between our nations and this gives us something like a ‘spiritual resurrection’…After 50 years [of suppression], there is now a huge demand in Hungary for [tracing] the roots.”[101]

EURASIANISM IS NOT FOR RUSSIA ALONE

“Central Europe is always at risk of being a product of someone else’s imagination.”[102] -Tony Judt

Prior to Aleksandr Gelyevich Dugin and his Eurasia (Russian: Евразия) movement gaining attention in the West, Eurasianism enjoyed “a rich ideological heritage unknown to those who cannot read Russian.”[103] Its modern iteration has two main conceptual underpinnings: the first, advanced by Prince Nikolai Sergeyevich Trubetskoi in the 1920s is that the ethnic nationalism should be combined with pan-Eurasian nationalism; and the second, advanced by the Russian geographer Petr Savitsky[104] also in the 1920s, is the image of a Eurasia in which ethnic groups through a genetic mutation-like process[105] evolve into a unique geopolitical unit, one he called an “assembly of nationalities and religions.”[106] For Russkiy mir[107] neo-Eurasianists like Dugin and his fellow Georgievskaya[108] ideologues, “the ‘other’ is the ‘West’.”[109]

Notions of Eurasian geographical integration are not novel: in 1904, British geographer Halford Mackinder described the potential geographical power of controlling the Eurasia, a territory he called the Pivot Area[110] (and later renamed the Heartland[111]). Some years later Mackinder summarized of his pivot theory with this senryū:

“Who rules East Europe[112] commands the Heartland.
Who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island.
Who rules the World-Island controls the world.”[113]

Mackinder stipulated that the Eurasian Heartland started on the eastern frontier of Germany, from which an invader could establish a foothold to enter the Eurasian interior.[114] This led Mackinder after World War I to advocate a Central European buffer zone comprised of Poland, Czechoslovakia and Hungary,[115] a construct reflected in today’s Visegrád Group.[116]

There have been many variations on Mackinder’s idea— Yves Lacoste’s troisième ensemble géopolitique; Walther Penck’s Zwischeneuropa; Michel Korinman’s l’europe mediane— all describing a buffer region between the Baltic and the Black Seas. Common to them is the idea of a tripartite Europe that includes Russia. Three spatial elements reemerged from the Soviet Union’s disintegration— Central Europe, Central Caucasus, and Central Asia—along with the Russian Federation as a fourth. Thus for Central Europe and Russia, Ukraine became an immediate focus of the geopolitical debate: as Zbigniew Brzezinski concluded, “Ukraine’s loss of independence would have immediate consequences for Central Europe, transforming Poland into the geopolitical pivot on the eastern frontier of a united Europe.”[117]

Marlène Laruelle divides neo-Eurasianism into three main trends. The first trend is associated with Dugin and his Georgievskaya and advocates the greatest expansionism. The second places greater emphasis on culture and folklore, and a Slavic-Turkic alliance; and the third defends Eurasianism as a special form of statehood that excludes the cult of nation and promotes diversity.[118]

The Eurasianist journal Geopolitika concludes an interview with Jobbik’s Gábor Vona, “If one looks into the Hungarian identity, one finds there the Eurasian roots of the nation.”[119] Vona himself writes elsewhere that while “Eurasianism was born as a uniquely Russian concept, it is not for Russia alone.” Without explaining why, he continues, “The reality is that the establishment of a truly supranational traditionalist framework can only come from the East.”[120] Vona’s language reflects a strong belief that Hungary, to borrow a phrase from Ukrainian political and cultural analyst Mykola Riabchuk, “is a natural part of some primordial Russian-Eurasian space.”[121] He offered the following in a November 2013 lecture in Istanbul:

“[W]e need to be able to integrate the essence of the European as well as the Asian mentality. The practical European and the profound Eastern approach need to shape us together. I can see three nations, countries that may be able to do so. The two great powers of Eurasia, Russia and Turkey, and my own homeland, Hungary. These three nations are European and Asian at the same time, due to their history, fate and disposition. These nations are destined to present the Eurasian alternative.”[122]

Riabchuk wrote that “external actors often play an important role” in socially and historically constructed identities, a thought the late historian Tony Judt applied to Central Europe:

“There is a Central European fantasy of a never-ending Europe of tolerance, freedom, and cultural pluralism. It is held to be all the more firmly implanted in the consciousness of Czechs and Hungarians, for example, for want of the reality. But whereas for Central Europeans this fantasy has served perhaps as a necessary myth, it is odd to see it reflected in Western fantasies about Central Europe, the geographic expression.[123]

Vladimir Putin proposed one basis for Vona’s sought integration— the Eurasian Union:

“[N]one of this entails any kind of revival of the Soviet Union. It would be naïve to try to revive or emulate something that has been consigned to history. But these times call for close integration based on new values and a new political and economic foundation. We suggest a powerful supranational association capable of becoming one of the poles in the modern world and serving as an efficient bridge between Europe and the dynamic Asia-Pacific region.” [124]

Russian historian and political analyst Vladimir Ryzhkov concludes, “Russia no longer considers itself part of European, and especially, Euro-Atlantic civilization.[125] That being said, the status of Ukraine is central to Russia’s ability to execute the Doctrine: as Janusz Bugajski aptly summarized, “with control over Ukraine, Moscow could project its influence into Central Europe; without Ukraine, the planned Eurasian bloc would become a largely Asian construct.”[126]

The hegemonic goal, as Mr. Putin wrote, is to “defin[e] the rules of the game and determine the contours of the future.” Here, it important to distinguish Russian national interests from Russia’s state ambitions. While the NATO accession of Russia’s neighboring states does not challenge Russian national security per se, it does challenge Russia’s ability to control their security and foreign policy orientation.

Russia’s approach in the case of Hungary and other states where this is the case was characterized in one analysis as “Facing East All Across Europe,”[127] involving what Mr. Putin called the “active measures”[128] of his Eurasian Doctrine: political support for “friendly” political parties and organizations, especially in Eastern and Central Europe.

“While its goals are imperial, the Kremlin’s strategies are pragmatic and flexible; they have included enticements, threats, incentives and pressures. By claiming it is pursuing “pragmatic” national interests, the Kremlin engages in asymmetrical offensives by interfering in neighbors’ affairs, capturing important sectors of local economies, subverting vulnerable political systems, corrupting national leaders, penetrating key security institutions and undermining national unity.”[129]

For Hungary, that means Jobbik. Speaking in Moscow in May 2013 at Dugin’s invitation, Vona called the European Union “a treacherous organization” and declared it would be better for Hungary to join the Eurasian Union should occasion arise. In March 2014, Jobbik MEP Béla Kovács accepted the invitation of the Eurasian Observatory for Democracy & Elections[130] to act as a “monitor” during the Match 2014 referendum in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. And in June 2014, Vona and Kovács held talks in Moscow with Alexei Zhuravlev, Russian State Duma deputy and chairman of Rodina (Motherland)[131] on the matter of “support for Hungarian-Ruthenian autonomy in Transcarpathia.”[132]

Next month, Jobbik will attend the “Russian National Forum” in St. Petersburg organized by the Intelligent Design Bureau.[133] The Forum’s declared mission is “to establish a movement that unites nationally-oriented forces in Europe, and to establish a permanent platform for discussion and decision-making on issues regarding the interaction of national conservative forces.”[134] Its objective is “The formation of a new united national doctrine for Russia and Europe,”[135] and a main topic of the Forum will be “cultural unity as the fundamental factor in the formation of national space.”[136]

THE RISKS AHEAD

“Hungary is the westernmost Turanic country, a link between East and West.”[137] -Gábor Vona

Viktor Orbán is undoubtedly a skilled politician and has been adept at playing a weak hand.[138] As Peter Kreko wrote recently, Orbán “needs European Union money and does not want to leave the EU. But he also wants to send a message to Europe and to the USA, that if they don’t take Hungary seriously, it has another ally: Moscow.”[139] Regarding the plight of the határon túli magyaroknak— literally, “Hungarians beyond the border”—even Jobbik concedes armed conflict is no remedy. However, as Orbán stated somewhat enigmatically in late October, if in today’s Europe the key to international relations is acknowledging “there are no boundaries, then the people of Central Europe can no longer be separated from each other.” He added, “Western culture seemed to be shrinking” and “it is not at all certain that what was good elsewhere will be good here and now.”[140] However, if the recent claim by Hungarian opposition parliamentarian Tímea Szabó is correct— “Hungary will soon be the European Union’s poorest country”[141]— then it might be said that Orbán’s approach might not be “good here and now” either. So much for his prediction circa 2011 that “In the next 5-10 years the economic growth of Europe will not be dominated by the old, traditional great European economies, but those of the Central European area laying between the Baltic Sea and the Adriatic Sea.”[142]

The conflict in Ukraine has greatly complicated the position of Hungary, given its geographic position, its virtual complete dependence upon Russian energy, and its position as a member of both the European Union and NATO. Several days ago, the German newspaper Die Welt published a fascinating interview with Hungarian Foreign Minister Tibor Navracsics.[143] After disputing that Hungary was pursuing a “seesaw policy” toward Russia— elaborated as “on the one hand condemning Russian aggression toward Ukraine, and on the other rejecting sanctions against Russia”[144]— Navracsics was asked whether Hungary feared “Russian power and ‘European cowardice’? Does Hungary trust the West to protect it against Russia?”[145] While “Hungary had bad experiences from 1945 and 1956 when it came to western solidarity,” Navracsics said, “Personally, I still trust that our NATO and EU membership guarantees proper protection.”

As a Russian commentator noted, “ethnic identity is not the result of blood and culture, so it can quite quickly, by historical standards, change.”[146] Hungary’s Jobbik, sometimes called “the Kremlin’s Trojan horse in Europe,”[147] seems to agree: the theme of the October 2014 “Identitarian Congress”[148] to be held in Budapest will be “The Future of Europe: Perspectives on Geopolitics, Identity, and Nationalism.” As one commentator notes, gatherings such as this “seem to provide the Kremlin with a unique means to exert soft power influence on the European continent.”[149]

Hungary seems, for the moment at least, firmly anchored in the European Union and NATO; however, it would be exceedingly foolish to ignore the many forces exerting political and economic pull on the nation. At the same time, Hungary must heed the frustration heard in of other European capitals and especially its neighboring states, to which Bogdan Diaconu gave voice:

“We’ve had enough of Hungary who always wants more special rights; preferential treatment; control over the Hungarian communities abroad, but most of all the wealth of countries in which they live; which wants a Hungarian state within a state everywhere, on behalf of the superior race they represent.”[150]

The great risk is that the confluence of these factors— internal economic pressures, frustration outside Hungary with “the Sirens of atavistic irredentism”[151] within the governing Fidesz–Hungarian Civic Alliance (let alone Jobbik), the continuing conflict in Ukraine and calls for Transcarpathian autonomy— will be exploited by Russia, with the intent of fomenting intra-NATO discord, especially within the Visegrád Group (“NATO’s shield against Russia”[152]) and between Hungary and Romania. Consider in conclusion the following quote from a recent assessment of the risk posed by Russian-led Eurasianism:

“Depending on the evolution of the balance of power between Russia and the EU, one should not exclude the possibility of such political actors functioning as ‘Trojan horses’ on behalf of Russian foreign policy. The prospects for Eurasianism to expand this strategy to political actors within the EU core, remains to be seen in the near future. In all of this, it should be borne in mind that…for the pro-Eurasian ‘Trojan horses’ from Central and Southeast Europe, Eurasianism seems to be pondering on systemic transformation, or a radical shift in the foreign policy agenda, that would bring the states in question within Russia’s sphere of influence…In the case of Hungary, the state of friction between Budapest and Brussels…has been a driving force behind the readjustment of this state’s foreign policy towards Moscow.”[153]

About the author:
John R. Haines is a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, where he also is a trustee and directs its Princeton Committee. Much of his current research is focused on Russia and its near abroad, with a special interest in nationalist and separatist movements. He also is the chief executive officer of a private sector corporation that develops nuclear detection and nuclear counterterrorism technologies.

Source:
This article was published by FPRI, and may be accessed here.

Notes:
[1] Author’s literary translation, adapted from László Botos (2008). Magyarságtudományi tanulmányok [Selected Studies in Hungarian History]. (Budapest: UN-Idea Publishers).

[2] Oodgeroo Noonucal (1990). My People. (Milton, Queensland, Australia: Jacaranda Wiley Ltd).

[3] From the title of a recent editorial by Michael Roth, German Minister of State for European Affairs. See: „Ungarn geht in die falsche Richtung.“ Der Tagesspiegel [online edition, 17 August 2014]. http://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/spd-aussenpolitiker-michael-roth-im-i…. Last accessed 1 September 2014.

[4] “Prime Minister Orbán’s Speech to Supporters, May 10, 2014.” http://theorangefiles.hu/prime-minister-orbans-speech-to-supporters-may-…. Last accessed 30 August 2014.

[5] The Economist [19 July 2014]. http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21607862-prime-minister-seeks-play-…. Last accessed 30 August 2014. The quoted phrase is an allusion to a March 2011 speech by Orbán, during which he said “True to our oath, in 1848 we did not let Vienna dictate to us, just as we did not let Moscow dictate to us in either 1956 or 1990. And we will not let anybody dictate to us now either, from Brussels or anywhere else.” [Hungarian: "Eskünkhöz híven nem tűrtük el 48-ban, hogy Bécsből diktáljanak nekünk, nem tűrtük el 56-ban és 1990-ben sem, hogy Moszkvából diktáljanak. Most sem hagyjuk, hogy Brüsszelből vagy bárhonnan bárki is diktáljon nekünk.”] See: http://index.hu/belfold/2011/03/18/az_idus_harom_nagy_tanulsaga/. Last accessed 30 August 2014.

[6] Casey Michel (2014). “Hungary’s Victor Orbán Walks in Putin’s Footsteps.” The Moscow Times [online edition, 5 August 2014]. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/hungarys-viktor-orban-walk…. Last accessed 30 August 2014.

[7] The sentence reads in the original Hungarian: “Nyugati zászló alatt hajózunk, de keleti szél fúj a világgazdaságban.” See: “Orbán: Keleti szél fúj.” Index.hu [online edition, 5 November 2011]. http://index.hu/belfold/2010/11/05/orban_keleti_szel_fuj/. Last accessed 30 August 2014.

[8] “Varga: Hungary Closely monitoring Russian Embargoes.” Hungary Matters [online edition, 21 August 2014], p. 2. http://mtva.hu/images/download/hungary_matters/2014/afternoon/hm0821pm.pdf. Last accessed 31 August 2014.

[9] “Jobbik Wants Government to Ask Compensation from Brussels After Russia Embargo.” Hungary Matters [online edition, 12 August 2014]. http://mtva.hu/images/download/hungary_matters/2014/morning/hm0812am.pdf. Last accessed 31 August 2014.

[10] Hungarian: Magyar Kereskedelmi És Iparkamara (MKIK).

[11] Ibid. Varga also argued for an increase in the EU’s €125 million emergency fund set up to compensate fruit and vegetable producers hit by the Russian embargo. See: Napi Gazdaság [21 August 2014], p. 2.

[12] “Varga: EU Response to Russia-Ukraine Conflict Impacts Hungary’s Interests.” Hungary Matters [online edition, 22 August 2014]. http://mtva.hu/images/download/hungary_matters/2014/afternoon/hm0822pm.pdf. Last accessed 31 August 2014.

[13] At an 11 September 2013 meeting of the Hungarian-Russian Joint Economic Committee in Budapest, Hungarian State Secretary for Foreign Affairs and External Economic Relations of the Prime Minister’s Office Péter Szijjártó (who is also Government Commissioner for Hungarian-Russian Relations) and Russian Agriculture Minister Nikolai Fyodorov agreed that the agriculture ministries of the two countries would begin preparations for the establishment of joint enterprises in order to increase agricultural trade. See: http://emberijogok.kormany.hu/hungarian-russian-joint-economic-committee…. Last accessed 31 August 2014.

[14] “Hungarian-Russian JVs Not Exempt from Import Embargo.” Hungary Matters [online edition, 26 August 2014]. http://mtva.hu/images/download/hungary_matters/2014/morning/hm0826am.pdf. Last accessed 31 August 2014.

[15] “PM: Russia Sanctions Hurt National Interest.” Hungary Matters [online edition, 15 August 2014]. http://mtva.hu/images/download/hungary_matters/2014/afternoon/hm0815pm.pdf. Last accessed 31 August 2014.

[16] “Prime Minister Orbán’s Speech to National Assembly, May 10, 2014.” http://theorangefiles.hu/prime-minister-orbans-speech-to-national-assemb…. Last accessed 30 August 2014.

[17] Ibid.

[18] “Orbán: nehéz lesz, ‘nem babazsúrra készülünk’.” hvz.hu [online edition, 29 March 2010). http://hvg.hu/itthon/20100529_orban_nem_babazsurra_keszul. Last accessed 30 August 2014.

[19] “Prime Minister Orbán’s Speech to National Assembly, May 10, 2014.” http://theorangefiles.hu/prime-minister-orbans-speech-to-national-assemb…. Last accessed 30 August 2014.

[20] “Három nap alatt összeomlott az Orbán-doktrína.” 168 Óra [online edition, 29 August 2014]. http://www.168ora.hu/itthon/harom-nap-alatt-osszeomlott-orban-doktrina-1…. Last accessed 1 September 2014. 168 Óra (168 Hours) is a weekly newspaper published in Hungary.

[21] The quoted text reads in the original Hungarian: “nem védte meg Magyarországon a nemzeti vagyont, nem hozott létre nemzetközösséget, eladósította az embereket stb. Vagyis”. See: Matild Torkos (2014). ” A tusványosi szindróma: A Gyurcsány család ápolt Putyinnal szoros baráti kapcsolato.” Magyar Nemzet [online edition, 4 August 2014]. http://mno.hu/jegyzet/a-tusvanyosi-szindroma-1240691. Last accessed 1 September 2014.

[22] The quoted text reads in the original Hungarian: “Azért kell figyelembe venni a nemzetközi közvélemény reakcióját, mert annak következményei vannak, cselekvéseket indítanak el, amelyek számunkra nem feltétlenül kedvezőek.” See: Fricz Tamás (2014). ” Illiberális helyett inkább: közösségelvű és nemzeti demokrácia.” MNO [online edition, 11 August 2014]. http://mno.hu/fricztamasblogja/illiberalis-helyett-inkabb-kozossegelvu-e…. Last accessed 1 September 2014.

[23] Others, like Fidesz’s “political philosopher” György Schöpflin, claim Orbán was referring to “economic liberalism” and that he used the term in contradistinction to to liberalism, which Schöpfli claims “seeks to coercively impose its ideals on the whole world.”

[24] The quoted text reads in the original German: “Doch die EU ist weit mehr als nur ein gemeinsamer Markt: Sie ist eine Wertegemeinschaft” and “Unsere gemeinsamen Werte dagegen schweißen uns zusammen.” See: Michael Roth & Tomáš Prouza (2014). “Europa ist mehr als ein Markt.” Frankfurter Rundschau [online edition, 28 August 2014]. http://www.fr-online.de/meinung/gastbeitrag-europa-ist-mehr-als-ein-mark…. Last accessed 1 September 2014.

[25] Quoted in Milan Jaroň (2010). “Trianon: A Different View.” Hungarian Spectrum [online edition, May 2010]. https://hungarianspectrum.wordpress.com/2010/05/page/2/. Last accessed 8 September 2014.

[26] Dagmar Kusá, Arnold Kiss, & Veronika Klempová (2014). “Use of Collective Memory in Political Discourse: Slovakia-Hungary Citizenship Dispute.” Paper prepared for the Third Euroacademia International Conference on Re-Inventing Eastern Europe

(Berlin, 28–29 March 2014), p. 3. http://euroacademia.eu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Dagmar_Kusa_…. Last accessed 2 September 2014.

[27] Tünde Puskás (2009). “We Belong to Them”: Narratives of Belonging, Homeland and nationhood in Territorial and Non-territorial Minority Settings. (Brussels: P.I.E. Peter Lang S.A.), pp. 81-82.

[28] Virtually all ethnic Hungarian Slovakians live in southern Slovakia along the border with Hungary, the population of which is 61.2 percent ethnic Hungarian. http://www.slovakia.org/society-hungary2.htm. Last accessed 2 September 2014. This territory was occupied by Hungary in March 1939.

[29] János Kis (2002). ” The Status Law: Hungary at the Crossroads.” Beszélő (March 2002). http://src-h.slav.hokudai.ac.jp/coe21/publish/no4_ses/chapter06.pdf. Last accessed 1 September 2014.

[30] Romania, Slovakia, Ukraine, Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia.

[31] Kusá, et al. (2014), p. 9.

[32] http://eudo-citizenship.eu/docs/CountryReports/recentChanges/Hungary.pdf. Last accessed 2 September 2014.

[33] Michaela Džomeková (2013). “Minorities: ‘Dual citizenship ban is silly’.” The Slovak Spectator [online edition, 28 October 2013]. http://spectator.sme.sk/articles/view/51823/2/minorities_dual_citizenshi…. Last accessed 2 September 2014.

[34] Patrik Babjak, (2010). “V Komárne zničili pamätník Trianonu.” Webnoviny.sk [online edition, 12 June 2010]. http://www.webnoviny.sk/slovensko/clanok/158961-v-komarne-znicili-pamatn…. Last accessed 2 September 2014. The quoted text reads in the original Slovak: “pripomínať všetkým, ale najmä pánom z Maďarska, že tu prechádzajú cez hranice a vstupujú na slovenskú zem, ktorá bude naveky naša”. The monument was placed on the Elisabeth Bridge on 4 June 2012; on 12 June, police reported that an unknown person had destroyed it with a hammer.

[35] “Semjén: Government Backs Ethnic Kin’s Autonomy Endeavours.” Hungary Matters [online edition, 26 August 2014]. http://mtva.hu/images/download/hungary_matters/2014/morning/hm0826am.pdf. Last accessed 31 August 2014.

[36] The name combines the word for “bridge” in Slovak and Hungarian, respectively.

[37] Kazimierz Popławski (2012). “Is It Possible to Work Together?” New Eastern Europe [online edition, 13 June 2012]. http://www.neweasterneurope.eu/interviews/287-it-is-possible-to-work-%20…. Last accessed 2 September 2014.

[38] The Carpathian Euroregion was formed in February 1993 by the governments of Ukraine, Hungary and Poland. At formation, it was comprised of Transcarpathia and three Ukrainian oblasts (L’viv, Ivano-Frankivsk & Chernivtsi); two regions of eastern Slovakia (Košice & Prešov); Poland’s Podkarpacie Province (a/k/a Subcarpathia); seven județe in Romania’s Nord-Vest (Bihor, Botoşani, Harghita, Maramureș, Sălaj, Satu Mare & Suceava); and five megyék in northeastern Hungary (Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén, Hajdú-Bihar, Heves, Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok & Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg). The Carpathian Euroregion’s legal status is formally recognized by the parliaments of Ukraine, Slovakia and Poland, but not by Hungary or Romania.

[39] European Center for Minority Issues (1999). Inter-Ethnic Relations in Transcarpathian Ukraine (ECMI Report #4, September 1999), p. 8. http://www.ecmi.de/uploads/tx_lfpubdb/report_4.pdf. Last accessed 28 August 2014. One scholar offers the following perspective: “Throughout its millennial history, Transcarpathia has known many names and rulers. Under the Hungarians, it was Kárpátalja. In Masaryk’s Czechoslovakia it was referred to as Podkarpatská Rus, Rusínsko, or Ruthenia. For several hours in 1939, it was the independent Republic of Carpatho-Ukraine. The Soviets and now the Ukrainians call it Zakarpatt’ja, or Transcarpathia.

[40] “Prime Minister Orbán’s Speech to National Assembly, May 10, 2014.” http://theorangefiles.hu/prime-minister-orbans-speech-to-national-assemb…. Last accessed 30 August 2014.

[41] Nor is Hungary’s interest there limited to the condition of ethnic Hungarians: it has also spoken out on behalf of Transcarpathian Rusins, who demand Kyiv recognize the “Republic of Carpathian Ruthenia” as a special self-administered region on the basis of a 1991 referendum. See: “Подкарпатская Русь заявляет о своих правах.” Правда [online edition, 9 June 2014]. http://www.pravda.ru/world/formerussr/ukraine/09-06-2014/1211350-karpaty…. Last accessed 31 August 2014. In November 2008, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s Our Ukraine party accused Viktor Baloha, the head of President Viktor Yushchenko’s secretariat and a Transcarpathian native, of supporting this movement. At the time, Ukraine’s All-Ukrainian Union “Freedom” party (Ukrainian: Всеукраїнське об’єднання «Свобода». Ukrainian transl.: Vseukrayinske obyednannia “Svoboda”) declared presciently, ““Transcarpathia and Crimea are the weak spots exploited by the Kremlin in order to subjugate Ukraine.”

[42] The Verkhovna Rada or Supreme Council of Ukraine is the national parliament. Ukrainian: Верхо́вна Ра́да Украї́ни (ВРУ).

[43] Hungarian: Kárpátaljai Magyar Kulturális Szövetség-Ukrajnai Magyar Párt (“KMKSz”).

[44] “Navracsics: Eastern Ukraine Crisis Worsens.” Hungary Matters [online edition, 21 August 2014], p. 1. http://mtva.hu/images/download/hungary_matters/2014/afternoon/hm0821pm.pdf. Last accessed 31 August 2014.

[45] “Az ukrán nagykövetség előtt akciózott a Jobbik.” Népszabadság [online edition, 4 Augustv 2014]. http://nol.hu/belfold/ukran-nagykovetseg-elott-akciozott-a-jobbik-1479079. Last accessed 1 September 2014. The quoted text reads in the original Hungarian: “A kárpátaljai magyaroknak semmi köze a tőlük ezer kilométerre zajló értelmetlen vérontáshoz” and ” Ez nem a magyarság háborúja.”

[46] “Balog: Transcarpathian Leaders Safety Guarantee.” Hungary Matter [online edition, 25 August 2014], p. 2. http://mtva.hu/images/download/hungary_matters/2014/morning/hm0825am.pdf. Last accessed 31 August 2014.

[47] Hungarian: Magyar Nemzeti Arcvonal. Its Hungarian language website, Hídfő.net, uses the tagline “The Voice of Truth in Hungary” (Az Igazság Hangja Magyarországon)

[48] The phrase reads in the original Hungarian: “magyar lakosságát Ukrajna feldarabolásának céljából mozgósítani.” See: “Nyugati Zsoldosok Tartanak Kárpátalja Felé.” Hídfő.net [online edition, 27 January 2014]. http://www.hidfo.net/2014/01/27/nyugati-zsoldosok-tartanak-karpatalja-fe…. Last accessed 31 August 2014.

[49] Ibid. The quoted text reads in the original Hungarian: “Hazánkban is folyamatban van egy más irányú politikai átrendeződés, melynek köszönhetően két parlamenti cikluson belül realizálódik Magyarország csatlakozása az Eurázsiai Unióhoz.”

[50] The quoted text reads in the original Hungarian: “Ez lehetőséget ad a magyar nép újraegyesítésére, és a kárpátaljai magyarságnak már csak ebből fakadóan sem érdeke, hogy Magyarországgal szemben különálló autonómiaként nyugati csatlósállammá váljon.”

[51] The quoted text reads in the original Hungarian: “a CIA egy új államot akar létrehozni Ukrajna és Magyarország határán.”

[52] ECMI (1999), p. 14.

[53] Brian J Požun (2000). “Multi-Ethnic Outpost.” Central Europe Review. 2:40 (20 November 2000). http://www.ce-review.org/00/40/pozun40.html. Last accessed 28 August 2014.

[54] Chourekishi (Japanese: 超歴史) means “para-history” in the sense of treating ancient legends and folklore as an historical record. Put another way, choukodaishi is the projection of foundational myths onto an historical period. It is a compound word formed from rekishi (Japanese: 歴史) or “history” and the prefix chou (Japanese: 超). A variation on the term, choukodaishi (Japanese: 超古代史), means literally “para-ancient history.”

[55] Jean Baudrillard (1982). Simulacra and Simulation. (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press), p. 24.

[56] Bogdan Diaconu (2014). “Ne-am săturat de Ungaria.” Adevărul [online edition, 27 July 2014]. http://adevarul.ro/news/politica/ne-am-saturat-ungaria-1_53d4b8020d13376…. Last accessed 5 September 2014. The quoted text reads in the original Romanian: “Ne-am săturat de Ungaria şi de complexele ei furibunde de mare fost imperiu imaginar.”

[57] The quoted phrase is from Alexandar Nikolov (2011). “The Protobulgarians: Old Theories, New Myths and the Phenomenon of ‘Parahistory’ In Post-Communist Bulgaria,” p. 46. Myth-Making and Myth-Breaking in History and the Humanities. Proceedings of the Conference Held at the University of Bucharest, 6-8 October 2011. http://www.unibuc.ro/n/resurse/myth-maki-and-myth-brea-in-hist-and-the-h…. Last accessed 29 August 2014.

[58] See: “Hungarian History.” http://www.hunmagyar.org/tor/index.html Last accessed 28 August 2014.

[59] See: “The Controversy on the Origins and Early History of the Hungarians.” http://www.hunmagyar.org/tor/controve.htm#CONCLUSION Last accessed 28 August 2014.

[60] Etelköz historical-geographical concept and the first known Hungarian principality. It was established around 830CE by the seven Magyar tribes (Hungarian: Hétmagyar) below the Dnieper River in an area corresponding generally with modern Ukraine’s Kirovohrad Oblast (Ukrainian: Кіровоградська область. Ukrainian transl.: Kirovohrads’ka oblast’). It is thought that the Hétmagyar federation may have seceded from the Khazar Empire located to the east around 862CE.

[61] Megyer is the tribal name of the most prominent of the seven tribes comprising the Hétmagyar federation, and is thought to be the root of the modern term Magyar. The English term Hungarian is a derivative of the Latin Ungri or Ungari.

[62] Viktor Padányi (1963). Dentumagyaria. (Buenos Aires: Editorial Transsylvania), pp. 385-388.

[63] Francisco Jós Badiny (1986). Az Istenes Honfoglalók. (Buenos Aires: Ösi Gyökér), p. 13.

[64] Also called the Pannonian Basin, its area corresponds generally to the political boundaries of modern Hungary. In Hungarian, it is usually associated with honfoglalás, literally, “The Conquest.”

[65] See: hunmagyar.org. “The Controversy on the Origins and Early History of the Hungarians.” There is no persuasive evidence to support use of the word “majority”: genetic evidence only supports a hypothesis that “the earlier migrations of the Magyars may also have contributed to the presence of this lineage in the Carpathian Basin.” See: B. Csányi, E. Bogácsi-Szabó, Gy. Tömöry, Á. Czibula, K. Priskin, A. CsŐsz, B. Mende, P. Langó, K. Csete, A. Zsolnai, E. K. Conant, C. S. Downes, & I. Raskó (2008). “Y-Chromosome Analysis of Ancient Hungarian and Two Modern Hungarian-Speaking Populations from the Carpathian Basin.” Annals of Human Genetics. 72:4, pp. 519-534.

[66] Patrick J. Geary (2002). The Myth of Nations: The Medieval Origins of Europe. (Princeton: Princeton University Press), p. 39.

[67] Ibid., p. 4.

[68] Pieter C. van Duin (2009). Central European Crossroads: Social Democracy and National Revolution in Bratislava (Pressburg), 1867-1921. International Studies in Social History, Volume 14. (New York: Berghahn Books), xi-xii. Maxwell also writes about the distinction in Slovakian between the mad’ar and the úhor who may speak any language. See: Alexander Maxwell (2004). “Magyarization, language planning, and Whorf: The word uhor as a case study in Linguistic Relativism.” Multilingua. 23:4, 319-337..

[69] As used here, autonomism means territorial political autonomy, i.e., “an arrangement aimed at granting a certain degree of self-identification to a group that differs from the majority of the population in the state, and yet constitutes the majority in a specific region.” [Ruth Lapidoth (1997). Autonomy: flexible solutions to ethnic conflicts. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press] Autonomism denotes the special political status of a region, populated by a people who differ ethnically or culturally from the majority population. [Jaime Lluch (2011). “Towards a Theory of Autonomism.” URGE-Collegio Carlo Alberto Working Paper (20 January 2011) p. 7.) The term was coined in 1901 by Simon Dubnow to designate a theory and conception of Jewish nationalism in the Diaspora as a national-cultural entity.

[70] “Polish-Hungarian Joint Statement: Ruch Narodowy and Jobbik Demand Self-Governance for the Indigenous Polish and Hungarian People living in the Ukraine” [3 February 2014]. http://www.jobbik.com/polish-hungarian_joint_statement_ruch_narodowy_and…. Last accessed 28 August 2014.

[71] For an excellent overview of the problem, see: “Seven Statements About the Nature of Anti-Semitism in Hungary. An Analysis by Political Capital Institute” (7August 2014). http://deconspirator.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/pc_seven_statements_….

[72] Nida Gelazis (2012). “Statement delivered to Working Session 13- Rights of persons belonging to national minorities, including: Preventing aggressive nationalism and racism and chauvinism.” Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Human Dimension Implementation Meeting, Warsaw, 2 October 2012. http://osce.usmission.gov/oct_2_12_ws13.html. Last accessed 28 August 2014.

[73] The Hungarian National Council of Transylvania [Hungarian: Erdélyi Magyar Nemzeti Tanács (EMNT). Romanian: Consiliul Național al Maghiarilor din Transilvania (CNMT)].

[74] “Лидер венгров Трансильвании потребовал “тотальной национальной независимости” от Румынии” [The leader of Transylvania's Hungarians demands 'total national independence" from Romania."]. ИА REGNUM [online edition, 29 July 2014]. http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1830318.html. Last accessed 7 September 2014.

[75] Bogdan Diaconu (2014). “Ne-am săturat de Ungaria.” Adevărul [online edition, 27 July 2014]. Citeste mai mult: adev.ro/n9d56z http://adevarul.ro/news/politica/ne-am-saturat-ungaria-1_53d4b8020d13376…. Last accesed 5 September 2014.

[76] Ibid. The full quote reads in the original Romanian: “Ne-am săturat de Ungaria care se agită fără oprire ca UE să se ocupe de minoritatea maghiară, Consiliul Europei să se ocupe de minoritatea maghiară, Consiliul European să se ocupe de minoritatea maghiară, Comisia Europeană să se ocupe de minoritatea maghiară, Parlamentul European să se ocupe de minoritatea maghiară, SUA să se ocupe de minoritatea maghiară, Rusia să se ocupe de minoritatea maghiară, Guvernul României să se ocupe de minoritatea maghiară, Guvernul Ucrainei să se ocupe de minoritatea maghiară, Guvernul Slovaciei să se ocupe de minoritatea maghiară, Guvernul Serbiei să se ocupe de minoritatea maghiară, Turcia să se ocupe de minoritatea maghiară (Vona Gabor a vizitat şi Turcia unde le-a vorbit „fraţilor şi surorilor” poporului maghiar, care, întâmplător, a fost ocupat de Imperiul Otoman, dar istoria se rescrie), Dalai Lama să se ocupe de minoritatea maghiară (Tőkés a vrut să-l aducă în Transilvania să-i arate minoritatea maghiară care suferă la fel ca poporul tibetan, iar europarlamentarul UDMR Sógor Csaba chiar s-a întâlnit cu Dalai Lama în 2010 şi l-a salutat ”în numele maghiarilor transilvăneni”, vorbind la comun despre drepturile minorităţilor tibetană şi maghiară)…Universul întreg trebuie să se ocupe de minoritatea maghiară şi de problemele ei închipuite.”

[77] Morris W. Foster & Richard R. Sharp (2002). “Race, Ethnicity, and Genomics: Social Classifications as Proxies of Biological Heterogeneity.” Genome Research. 2002:12, p. 844.

[78] Foster & Sharp (2002), p. 845.

[79] Jay S. Kaufman (1999). “How inconsistencies in racial classification demystify the race construct in public health statistics.” Epidemiology. 1999:10, pp. 101–3. Foster and Sharp [(2002), p. 845] write, “[T]he use of racial and ethnic classifications as a proxy for genetic heterogeneity [is] paradoxical: On the one hand, the use of these social identities can be critical for assembling biologically diverse genomic resources; on the other hand, using these social categories in the construction of genomic re- sources indicates a substantive biological significance that racial and ethnic classifications do not necessarily possess.”

[80] Jay S. Kaufman (2001). “Commentary: Considerations for Use of Racial/Ethnic Classification in Etiologic Research.” American Journal of Epidemiology. 154:4, p. 292. http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/154/4/291.full.pdf+html. Last accessed 5 September 2014.

[81] Lynn B Jorde & Stephen P Wooding (2004). ” Genetic variation, classification and ‘race’.” Nature Genetics. 36, pp. S28-S33. http://www.nature.com/ng/journal/v36/n11s/full/ng1435.html. Last accessed 2 September 2014.

[82] Nándor Dreisziger (2011). “Genetic Research and Hungarian ‘Deep Ancestry’.” AHEA: E-Journal of the American Hungarian Educators Association. 4, p. 1. The author notes that Dreisziger goes to great length to dissect and debunk several studies purporting to explain Hungarian ethnogenesis.

[83] Regarding Kazakhstan, Szegedi premised his remarks by stating “Our kinship with the Kazakhs is not only believed but is proved. Under the direction of the anthropologist András Zsolt Bíró, the existence of a genetic relationship was confirmed earlier this year.” [Original German transcription: "Unsere Verwandtschaft mit den Kasachen ist nicht nur angenommen, sondern bewiesen. Unter der Leitung des Anthropologen András Zsolt Bíró…wurde diese Verwandtschaft dieses Jahr auch genetisch bewiesen."]

[84] From the original transcription in German. See: “Ungarische Außenpolitik á la Jobbik: Ab nach Kasachstan!” [1 October 2009]. http://pusztaranger.wordpress.com/2009/10/01/ungarische-ausenpolitik-a-l…. Last accessed 28 August 2014. The complete quote reads in the original German: “[I]n den vergangenen Jahrhunderten haben wir uns daran gewöhnt, dass wir von feindlichen Völkern umgeben sind. Wir wurden aufgerieben zwischen einem großen slawischen und germanischen (sic) Meer, was unsere inneren Feinde* immer grausam ausgenutzt haben. Jetzt ist der historische Augenblick gekommen, den natürlichen Bund, den unsere Ahnen, die Skythen, Hunnen und Avaren bildeten, im 21. Jahrhundert neu zu schließen. Ein neuer, großer turanischer* Bund ist hier im Entstehen, und es wird sich stärkend auf das ungarische Nationalbewußtsein auswirken, dass wir nicht alleine sind.”

[85] Torgaj [Kazakh: Торғай. Kazak transl.: Torgaj. Russian Тургай. Russian transl.:Turgaj) is taken from the name of a river in western Kazakhstan’s Akťubinská oblast ( Kazakh: Ақтөбе облысы. Russian Актюбинская область).

[86] A. Z. Bíró, A. Zalán, A. Völgyi, and H. Pamjav (200). “A Y-chromosomal comparison of the Madjars (Kazakhstan) and the Magyars (Hungary).” American Journal of Physical Anthropology. 139:3 (July 2009), pp. 305-310. Bíró ‘s findings are at odds with, for example, more credible findings such as those published a year earlier by Csányi, et al., which indicates “modern Hungarian and Szekler [author's note: a Hungarian subgroup found in concentrations in modern Romania's Transylvania region] populations are genetically closely related, and similar to populations from Central Europe and the Balkans.”

[87] In November 2012, Jobbik MP Márton Gyöngyösi “stated that he knew the approximate number of Israeli Jews living in Hungary, and he said that it was time to assess how many of them are in the Hungarian National Assembly and in the government, posing a national security risk to Hungary.” See: “Jobbik: No Israelis in the Hungarian Parliament!” jobbik.com [29 November 2012]. http://www.jobbik.com/jobbik_no_israelis_hungarian_parliament. Last accessed 1 September 2014.

[88] In June 2012, a genetic testing company based at Budapest’s Eötvös Loránd University, Nagy Gén Diagnostic and Research, was sharply criticized for providing a certificate to an unnamed Jobbik MP that he was “free of Jewish and Roma” genes. See: Alison Abbot (2012). “Genome test slammed for assessing ‘racial purity:’ Hungarian far-right politician certified as ‘free of Jewish and Roma’ genes.” Nature [online edition, June 12 2012]. http://www.nature.com/news/genome-test-slammed-for-assessing-racial-puri…. Last accessed 1 September 2014.

[89] Dreisziger (2011), p. 3. He offers an extended debunking of Bíró’s study: “[I]n the 1960s a physical anthropologist by the name of T. Tóth, on a visit to the Soviet Union, ‘discovered’ a clan in Kazakhstan called the Madijars and concluded that these people were Magyars. Decades later another Hungarian traveller, M. Benkő, visited the region and again declared this clan a relative of the Hungarian nation. Following this, Bíró and his team went to visit the Madijars and were greeted enthusiastically as long-lost relatives. Bálint points out that Bíró and his associates referred to this clan not by their real name, Madijars, but by a name they gave them: Madjars. Bíró and the members of his team managed to obtain y-DNA samples from a group of Madijar men and eventually compared the results with the y-DNA of another rather small group of Hungarian men. To make a long story short, Bíró and his associates came up with the conclusion that genetic evidence also supported their conclusion about the relatedness of Madijars and Magyars.”

[90] “Hungarian Genetics: Abstracts and Summaries.” The American Center of Khazar Studies. http://www.khazaria.com/genetics/hungarians.html. Last accessed 2 September 2014.

[91] Emel Akçah & Umut Korkut (2012). “Geographical. Metanarratives in East-Central Europe: Neo-Turanism in Hungary.” Eurasian Geography and Economics. 53:5, p. 602.

[92] Dreisziger (2011), p. 7.

[93] “Although not precisely defined, Turán is the Persian name given for Central Asia, the land of the Tûr. It is also an imaginary region, and thus a political term, developed by nationalist Turkish and Hungarian circles at the beginning of the 20th century.” Jobbik formally embraced Turanism in December 2010. See: Akçah & Korkut (2012), fn(9) on p. 600.

[94] An excellent study of the development of Turanism is Michael Knueppel (2006). “Zur Ungarischen Rezeption der sumerisch-turanischen Hypothese in der zweiten Haelfte des 20. Jahrhunderts.” Zeitschrift fuer Balkanologie. http://www.zeitschrift-fuer-balkanologie.de/index.php/ zfb/article/view/76. Last accessed 5 September 2014.

[95] Despite the fact that Turanism was introduced to the Hungarian public by a Jewish orientalist, Ármin Vámbéry, through the journal Turan.

[96] Michael Billig (1995). Banal Nationalism. (London: Sage Publishers), p. 8.

[97] Krisztián Ungváry (2012). “Turanism: the ‘new’ ideology of the far right.” The Budapest Times [online edition, 5 February 2012]. http://budapesttimes.hu/2012/02/05/turanism-the-new-ideology-of-the-far-…. Last accessed 5 September 2014.

[98] A tenet of Turanism is the refusal to accept the Finno-Ugris origin of the Hungarian language, described colloquially as a “kinship smelling of fish.”

[99] Akçah & Korkut (2012), p. 609.

[100] For example, “two out of three Hungarians—in contrast to citizens of the other three Visegrad countries—take the view that there are more disadvantages to life today than there were under the dictatorial regime before 1989. In contrast, seven out of ten Czechs, six out of ten Poles, and 53 per cent of Slovaks think that there are more advantages to life under democratic rule in 2009.” See: http://www.visegradgroup.eu/about/press-room/return-to-europe. Last accessed 5 September 2014.

[101] Quoted in Akçah & Korkut (2012), p. 609.

[102] Tony Judt (1990) “The rediscovery of Central Europe.” Daedalus: Journal of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. 119: 1, pp. 23-54. The quoted text appears on p. 48.

[103] Fr. Matthew Raphael Johnson, Ph.D. (2014). “Russian Nationalism and Euranism.” Geopolitika [English language online edition, 25 June 2014]. http://www.geopolitica.ru/en/article/russian-nationalism-and-eurasianism…. Last accessed 4 September 2014.

[104] In George Vladimirovich Vernadsky (1927). Outline of Russian History. Part One. (Prague: Evraziiskoe Knigoizdatelstvo), pp. 234-260. Vernadsky, for example, self-identified with a dual Russian-Ukraininan identity, and found the notion of Ukrainian separatism counterproductive [Igor Toborov (2008). "Rethinking the Nation: Imperial Collapse, Eurasianism, and George Vernadsky’s Historical Scholarship." Kennan Institute Occasional Papers. (Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars), pp. 5-6.]

[105] Savitsky’s actual term was генетическая мутация (Russian transl.: geneticheskaya mutatsiya).

[106] The author credits the summarization of Savitsky’s writing in Milan Hauner (1989). What Is Asia To Us? Russia’s Asian Heartland Yesterday and Today. (New York: Routledge).

[107] In English, “Russian world” [Russian: русский мир]. The Russian World Foundation website is http://www.russkiymir.ru.

[108] In English, “St. George” [Russian: Георгиевская].

[109] Johnson (2014). Op cit.

[110] Sir Halford J. Mackinder (1904). “The Geographical Pivot of History.” Geographical Journal, XXIII:4 (April 1904), pp. 421-444. http://intersci.ss.uci.edu/wiki/eBooks/Articles/1904%20HEARTLAND%20THEOR…. Last accessed 4 September 2014.

[111] Sir Halford J. Mackinder (1919; 1942). Democratic Ideals and Reality. (Washington, D.C.: National Defense University Press).

[112] Mackinder included here the Baltic states, Poland Czechoslovakia, Austria, Hungary, and Yugoslavia.

[113] Mackinder (1919; 1942), p. 106

[114] Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya (2007). “The ‘Great Game': Eurasia and the History of War.” Global Research [online edition, 3 December 2007). http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-great-game-eurasia-and-the-history-of-w…. Last accessed 4 September 2014. Mackinder’s thinking is reflected clearly in post-war containment theory. As Tristan Hunt writes, “When the architect of American postwar anti-Soviet strategy, diplomat George Kennan, argued that ‘our problem is to prevent the gathering together of the military-industrial potential of the entire Eurasian landmass under a single power threatening the interests of the insular and mainland portions of the globe,’ it was pure Mackinder.” See: “A very foreign policy.” The Guardian [online edition, 24 September 2009]. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/sep/24/obama-missile-europ…. Last accessed 4 September 2014.

[115] At the time, the time the buffer was intended to prevent another German Drang nach Osten (“drive to the East”) or Ostbewegung (“eastward movement”) toward Russia. See: http://www.visegradgroup.eu/news/putin-medvedev-send. Last accessed 4 September 2014. The late Hungarian historian Jenő Szűcs called this region “Central-Eastern Europe.” See: Szűcs (1983). The three historical regions of Europe: an outline. Budapest: Hungarian Academy of Sciences.

[116] As an interesting side note, Russian President Putin’s 2013 birthday greeting to Orbán highlighted the latter’s “immense contribution to strengthening friendly relations between Hungary and Russia…The Russian leader said he trusted that successful cooperation and a constructive dialogue with the Hungarian premier would endure.”

[117] Zbigniew Brzezinski (1997). The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and its Geostrategic Imperatives. (New York: Basic Books), p. 46. The extended passage reads: “Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire…However, if Moscow regains control over Ukraine, with its 52 million people and major resources as well as its access to the Black Sea, Russia automatically again regains the wherewithal to become a powerful imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia. Ukraine’s loss of independence would have immediate consequences for Central Europe, transforming Poland into the geopolitical pivot on the eastern frontier of a united Europe.”

[118] Marlène Laruelle (2000). “Pereosmyslenie imperii v postsovetskom prostranstve: novaia evraziyskaia ideologiia.” Vestnik Evrasii. 8:1, pp. 5-18. Republished in: Laruelle (2009). Forum noveyshey vostochnoyevropeyskoy istorii i kul’tury. 1 (2009), pp. 78-92. http://www1.ku-eichstaett.de/ZIMOS/forum/docs/forumruss11/4Laruelle.pdf. Last accessed 4 September 2014. Cited in Eldar Ismailov & Vladimer Papava (2010). “Eurasianism and the Concept of Central Caucaso-Asia.” Rethinking Central Eurasia. (Washington, D.C.: The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute), p. 30.

[119] The quoted text reads in the original Russian: Если мы посмотрим внутрь венгерской идентичности, мы там обнаружим евразийские корни. See: “Габор Вона: евроатлантизм должен быть заменен на евразийство.” Геополитика [online edition, 29 April 2013]. http://www.geopolitica.ru/article/gabor-vona-evroatlantizm-dolzhen-byt-z…. Last accessed 4 September 2014.

[120] Gábor Vona (2014). “Some Thoughts on the Creation of Intellectual Eurasianism.” Journal of Eurasian Affairs. 2:1. http://www.eurasianaffairs.net/some-thoughts-on-the-creation-of-intellec…. Last accessed 4 September 2014.

[121] Mykola Riabchuk (2011). ” Western ‘Eurasianism’ and the ‘New Eastern Europe’: Discourse of Exclusion.” http://www.postcolonial-europe.eu/en/essays/116-western-eurasianism-and-…. Last accessed 4 September 2014.

[122] “Vona Gábor: az eurázsiai jövő alapja a tradíció.” Alfahir.com [online edition, 31 October 2013]. http://alfahir.hu/vona_gabor_az_eurazsiai_jovo_alapja_a_tradicio. Last accessed 30 August 2013. The paragraph reads in the original Hungarian: “Ahhoz, hogy egy ilyen értékrendet és stratégiát fel tudjunk építeni, ahhoz az kell, hogy egyszerre tudjuk hordozni mind az európai, mind az ázsiai szemlélet lényegét. Az európai gyakorlatiasság és a keleti elmélyültség együtt kell, hogy munkáljon bennünk. Három olyan népet, országot látok, amely erre alkalmas lehet. A két eurázsiai nagyhatalmat, Oroszországot és Törökországot, valamint a saját hazámat, Magyarországot. Ez az a három nép, amely történelme, sorsa és adottságai alapján egyszerre európai is és ázsiai is. Az eurázsiai alternatívát ezért ezeknek a népeknek kell megfogalmaznia.”

[123] Tony Judt (1990) “The rediscovery of Central Europe.” Daedalus: Journal of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. 119: 1, pp. 23-54. The quoted text appears on p. 48.

[124] Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (2011). “A new integration project for Eurasia: The future in the making.” Izvestia [online edition, 3 October 2011]. http://www.russianmission.eu/en/news/article-prime-minister-vladimir-put…. Last accessed 6 September 2014.

[125] Vladimir Ryzhkov (2014). “Бои без правил, или Новая доктрина Кремля” (“Fighting without rules: the new Kremlin doctrine.”). Эхо Москвы [online edition, 2 April 2014]. http://www.echo.msk.ru/blog/rizhkov/1292700-echo/. Last accessed 8 September 2014. The quoted text reads in the original Russian: “Россия не рассматривает больше себя как часть европейской, и, тем более, евроатлантической цивилизации. Россия — демократия, но особого рода.”

[126] Ibid.

[127] Political Capital Institute (2014). The Russian Connection: An analysis by the Political Capital Institute (14 March 2014). (Budapest: Political Capital Policy Research and Consulting Institute), p. 4. http://www.riskandforecast.com/useruploads/files/pc_flash_report_russian…. Last accessed 5 September 2014.

[128] Russian: активные мероприятия. Russian transl.: aktivnyye meropriyatiya.

[129] Janusz Bugajski (2014). “Confronting the Putin Doctrine.” Hungarian Review [online edition, 14 May 2014]. http://www.hungarianreview.com/article/20140514_confronting_the_putin_do…. Last accessed 5 September 2014.

[130] The EODE is a Brussels-based non-governmental organization operated by two Belgian neo-fascists with an office in Moscow. EODE claims that it “practices a ‘non-aligned monitoring'” and is “specialized the ‘self-declared republics’ (Abkhazia, Transdnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh), where it conducted missions and audit, among others for the 2006 referendum in Transdnistria.” [sic] See: https://web.archive.org/web/20140322080214/http://www.eode.org/eode-pres…. Last accessed 8 September 2014.

[131] Formally, “Motherland- the People’s Patriotic Union” (Russian: Родина-Народно-Патриотический Союз. Russian transl.: Rodina-Narodno-Patrioticheskiy Soyuz) a/k/a Rodina.

[132] “Jobbik vies for Russia’s support for autonomy in Eastern Ukraine.” Politics.hu [online edition, 19 June 2014]. http://www.politics.hu/20140619/jobbik-vies-for-russias-support-for-auto…. Last accessed 8 September 2014.

[133] The Intelligent Design Bureau is headed by Andrey Petrov, who leads the St. Petersburg branch of the Motherland-National Patriotic Union a/k/a Rodina (Russian: РОДИНА), which is led by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin.

[134] See: http://realpatriot.ru/русскии-национальныи-форум/. Last accessed 8 Septyember 2014. The quoted text reads in the original Russian: “Миссия: Учреждение движения по объединению национально ориентированных сил Европы и создание постоянно действующей площадки по обсуждению и выработке решений по вопросам взаимодействия национально-консервативных сил.”

[135] Ibid. The quoted text reads in the original Russian: “Формирование новой объединённой национальной доктрины России и Европы.”

[136] Ibid. The quoted text reads in the original Russian: “Культурное единство как основополагающий фактор формирования национального пространства..”

[137] The quoted text is taken from a longer statement by Gábor Vona at Istabbul’s Marmara University in November 2013. The full text reads in the original Hungarian: “Vona előadásában leszögezte, a turáni összefogás egy olyan lehetőség lehet minden vérrokon nép számára, amellyel hazánk a legnyugatibb turáni ország lehet és összekötő kapocs Kelet és Nyugat között.” See: ” A törökök támogatják a székelyek szabadságharcát.” Alfahir.hu [online edition, 1 November 2013]. http://alfahir.hu/a_torokok_tamogatjak_a_szekelyek_szabadsagharcat. Last accessed 29 August 2014.

[138] A commentator once quipped, “if the current Hungarian government of Viktor Orbán ever entered an international strudel-making competition, it would surely win gold,” an allusion to the Hungarian phrase for “dragging one’s feet,” nyújtja mint a rétestésztát,” the literal meaning of which is the time-consuming process of rolling out the dough to make it very long and thin.

See: Kester Eddy (2012). “Hungary-EU/IMF: a right old strudel. Financial Times [online edition, 18 June 2012]. http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/06/18/hungary-euimf-a-right-old-st…. Last accessed 1 September 2014.

[139] The Economist [19 July 2014], op cit.

[140] “Orbán: Szabadságharcos nép a magyar.” Magyar Hírlap [online edition, 19 August 2014]. http://magyarhirlap.hu/cikk/3028/Orban_Szabadsagharcos_nep_a_magyar. Last accessed 8 September 2014.

[141] “Együtt-PM: Magyarország az EU legszegényebb állama lesz. Orbán Viktor munkaalapú társadalma nem életképes?” Magyar Hírlap [online edition, 19 August 2014]. http://magyarhirlap.hu/cikk/3031/EgyuttPM_Magyarorszag_az_EU_legszegenye…. Last accessed 8 September 2014. The full quote reads in the original Hungarian: ” Az Együtt-PM véleménye szerint Magyarország hamarosan az Európai Uniós legszegényebb állama lesz – közölte az Eurostat adataira hivatkozva a szövetség társelnöke. ”

[142] “The Visegrád Four: The NATO’s shield against Russia.” Jövőnk.info [online edition, 31 December 2011]. http://jovonk.info/2011/12/31/visegrad-four-nato-s-shield-against-russia. Last accessed 8 September 2014.

[143] “Russland wird sich von Europa abwenden.” Die Welt [online edition, 5 September 2014]. http://www.welt.de/print/die_welt/politik/article131924817/Russland-wird…. Last accessed 5 September 2014.

[144] The quoted text reads in the original German: “einerseits Russlands Aggression gegen die Ukraine verurteilen, andererseits die Sanktionen gegen Russland ablehnen.”

[145] The quoted text reads in the original German: “Hat Ungarn Angst vor Russlands Macht und Europas Feigheit? Vertrauen Sie dem Westen, Ungarn vor Russland zu schützen?”

[146] “Карпатская геополитика Венгрии: распад украинской государственности дает редкий шанс.” ИА REGNUM [online edition, 21 May 2014]. http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1804662.html#ixzz3Cg4X10bn. Last accessed 7 September 2014. The quoted text reads in the original Russian: “Этническая идентичность является результатом не крови, а культуры, поэтому может быть довольно быстро, по историческим меркам, изменена.”

[147] To be fair, this tag has been applied to others as well: Russia’s then Ambassador to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, in 2008 called Bulgaria “Russia’s Trojan horse in the EU.”

[148] http://www.npiamerica.org/identitarian-congress. The “Identitarian Congress” [sic] was organized by the United States-based conservative and white supremacist National Policy Institute (http://www.npiamerica.org), a self-described “independent think-tank and publishing firm dedicated to the heritage, identity, and future of European people in the United States and around the world.”

[149] Richard Arnold (2014). “More European Far Right Conferences in Russia.” Eurasia Daily Monitor [online edition, 5 September 2014]. . Last accessed 8 September 2014.

[150] Diaconu (2014), op cit.

[151] Credit to Theodoros Coulombis.

[152] http://jovonk.info/2011/12/31/visegrad-four-nato-s-shield-against-russia

[153] Vassilis Petsinis (2014). “Eurasianism and the Far Right in Central Europe and South East Europe.” Central and East European Review. 8 (2014).

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General John Allen Named Special Presidential Envoy For Global Coalition To Counter ISIL

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US Secretary of State John Kerry announced Monday that the US has asked General John Allen to join the State Department to serve as Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL.

According to Kerry, in this role, General Allen will help build and sustain the coalition so it can operate across multiple lines of effort in order to degrade and ultimately destroy ISIL.

“General Allen is a patriot and a remarkable leader. His extraordinary career in the military speaks for itself,” Kerry said, adding, “Whether as the top commander of NATO’s ISAF forces in Afghanistan during a critical period from 2011-2013, or as a deputy commander in Anbar during the Sunni awakening, or as a thinker, scholar, and teacher at the U.S. Naval Academy.”

Additionally, Kerry said that General Allen “has done significant public service out of uniform since he returned to civilian life. His commitment to country and to service has really been enduring.”

General Allen will be joined by Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Brett McGurk, who will serve as General Allen’s deputy senior envoy with the rank of Ambassador, Kerry said.

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Iran Viewpoint: US Shaky Triangular Coalition, Not Capable Of Fighting ISIS – OpEd

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By Seyed Mohammad Eslami

Various pieces of the puzzle are gradually coming together to give a clear meaning to certain behaviors. At first, a coalition takes shape in a summit meeting of NATO member states in Wales to discuss ways of fighting ISIS terrorists. During the meeting, the United States coalesces with France, Germany, UK, Poland, Denmark, Australia, Turkey and other countries. Following that meeting, the second coalition comes into being in Saudi Arabian capital city of Riyadh. This time around, the United States formed a coalition with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain, and other Arab countries of the Persian Gulf. Exactly on the same day, the governments of Germany and UK announced that they will not sent troops to take part in any possible military operations led by the United States against the ISIS in Iraq and Syria. A while later, the French government announced that an international meeting will be held in the French capital city of Paris with the Islamic Republic of Iran to be invited as a special guest. Just one day after that development, the US administration declared that Washington is not willing to bank on Iran’s regional influence in its fight against the ISIS. Now, the question is does anybody has any clue about what US President Barack Obama is actually doing?

It seems that the US strategy is based on taking simultaneous advantage of three sides of an international triangle. One side of the triangle consists of the NATO member states, especially Turkey, while the second side is coalition with the regional Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia. The third side of the triangle is built on the possible participation of Iran along with the members of the other two coalitions in a meeting hosted by France. However, Iran is evidently suspicious of the US behavior. This is especially true as clear contradictions among various sides of this quivering triangle have cast doubt on its ultimate fate as well as its true nature.

Most European and other Western countries that are currently having big claims to fighting the ISIS had largely remained silent on the crimes committed by this group when it was in the offing. They even chose to ignore the persistent warnings issued by the Syrian President Bashar Assad on the consequences of the presence of Al-Qaeda and its offshoots in the Syria crisis. It follows that those silent countries in the West are the main parties to be blamed for the lion’s share of funds as well as weapons that are currently at the disposal of ISIS terrorist group. The second contradiction is about their current approach. In the most optimistic view, one may claim that member countries of the aforesaid coalitions, which are currently trying to crack down on extremism in Iraq, had used the same kind of extremism to topple the government of Syria. It seems that they have apparently forgotten where, how, and when ISIS came into being.

With a little realism, it would be clear that the current approach that is followed by the United States aims to support extremism in the name of fighting extremism. In reality, however, there is not much difference between Takfiri extremist groups in Iraq and Syria. Many groups that are possible to be accorded special support by the United States and Arab states in the region are exactly behaving in the same way as the ISIS. Documents collected by the United Nations are replete with such examples that have been monitored in the course of the Syria crisis.

So, back to the opening question: what is Barack Obama actually doing? Revisiting all the international developments that have surrounded the ISIS in previous years will show that he has taken a U-turn in his approach to the group and is trying to replace the crisis in Iraq with the crisis in Syria. Having found himself at loss once as a result of listening to Qatar in Syria, Obama will most probably find himself in the same position this time through illogical partnership with Saudi Arabia. Regardless of whether Qatar is involved or Saudi Arabia, both countries will only serve to add further complications to the ongoing crisis of extremism in Iraq and the Levant. The quality of military developments in Syria is such that Americans will never be able to close this case by overthrowing Syrian President Bashar Assad. This is true as any form of direct or indirect intervention in Syria will logically elicit a rapid and clear response from the Syrian army as well as the Lebanese Hezbollah’s forces.

On the other hand, it is quite probable for Russia, as a power in international arena, to give an aggressive answer to new Western onslaught against its strategic issues in the course of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. In addition, the new approach taken by the United States will only help to drift Washington further away from Iran and Russia and can easily show its negative impact on the nuclear case of Iran. Therefore, Iran’s answer to such a double-standard approach will be quite clear and straightforward. Although Iran may send a representative to the forthcoming Paris conference on the ISIS in order to show its goodwill, there is no doubt that it is totally aware of the main approach that has been taken by the US government. Through the new approach, the United States has not only failed to make up for its past mistakes, but has just repeated them in a different form. The erroneous strategy that has been adopted by Barack Obama and the great depth of the extremism crisis, which has been sweeping through Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen in recent years, only support speculations that the ISIS and other similar extremist groups are nothing but the ominous legacy of US’s failed foreign policy in West Asia and North Africa.

Seyed Mohammad Eslami
Expert on Middle East Issues

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Now Through The Front Door Into Syria – OpEd

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By Jeremy Salt

So finally the US gets what it wants, a war on Syria. Or should it be a war in Syria? Either way, another US-led attack that violates international law and, without the consent of Congress, probably domestic law as well. Syria has warned the US against this step, just as it warned the US and its friends against backing the armed groups four years. Now we see where this has led, to the growth of the self-styled Islamic State.

You can practically write your own script for what happens now. In Iraq more intense air strikes but no American ‘boots on the ground.’ The Iraqi army in combination with the peshmerga will have to liberate Mosul, where the Islamic state has been entrenching itself for the past three months. A prolonged battle can be expected, with large parts of the city being destroyed and countless numbers of civilians killed. Mosul will end up looking like Aleppo and other Syrian cities.

The US has given itself the right to launch a war on/in Syria. It has the support of the British government. David Cameron says the Syrian government is illegitimate because it has committed war crimes and therefore military action in Syria without its consent is justified. Of course it is not. It will be a flagrant violation of international law and another example of the tearing to shreds of the 17th century treaty of Westphalia which was designed to ensure stability in Europe through mutual respect for borders and the principle of sovereignty of the state.

What Cameron said one day was contradicted by his Foreign Secretary, Phillip Hammond, on another. He said Britain would not take part in attacks on the Islamic state in Syria, but a few hours later No. 10 Downing St. insisted all options were open. Germany has opted out and France says it will join the air attacks in Iraq and on Syria if asked. Turkey, the erstwhile neo-Ottoman leader of the Middle East until a few years ago, will provide humanitarian aid and logistical support (from the Incirlik air base near Adana) but won’t take part in combat missions in Iraq or against Syria. One strong reason is that the Islamic state has been holding dozens of Turks hostage in Mosul since June. In the same week that one of its minions cut off the head of the second American Turkey’s Deputy Prime Minister, Bulent Arinc, said the hostages were safe. How can any prisoner be safe in the hands of people who cut off heads? Turkey has handled this crisis by instructing the media not to talk about it.

The game plan as announced by Barack Obama is to destroy the Islamic state in Syria while pumping up the forces of the so-called Free Syrian Army. Well, if Christ could raise Lazarus from the dead perhaps Barack Obama can breathe life into the FSA. There is no FSA and it will take years to create one. They tried for four years and could not do it. Perhaps they should postpone attacking Syria for another decade or two until they really have some kind of army. The takfiris are running the armed opposition in Syria, yet the US says that as Islamic state positions are destroyed, FSA ‘moderates’ will fill the vacuum. Thus the stated game plan is to fill a vacuum with an empty space.

If all of this smacks of a war planned in the sunroom of a mental home consider next how the US intends to fight it. The Syrian government is not going to call off its campaign against the armed groups just because the US has intervened to save the skins of its real protégés rather than the fictive ones the American public is constantly told its government is supporting. Two hostile air forces will be bombing in the same air space so intervention against the Islamic state is likely to end in war with Syria. Likely? Well, actually, isn’t this the war the US and its friends wanted all along? They funded the pool of takfiris out of which ISIS has arisen and now it has opened the front door for their attack instead of the back door they have had to use so far.

The next question is where the US will attack. Logically, the first target should be al Raqqa, the Syrian seat of the Islamic state, but what’s the betting the US goes instead for targets around Aleppo. This is the city the invisible FSA wanted to set up as the capital of ‘liberated’ Syria. It is close to the Turkish border and therefore the pipeline of arms, men, money and aid in various forms. Half the city is in the hands of takfiris the US and its friends do like even if they don’t admit it but they are threatened by the takfiris the US and friends openly admit they don’t like.

To make sure everyone understands the differences, the US is color-coding the takfiris: green for the ones the US and friends do like, yellow for the ones in between whom they might like one day and red for the ones they definitely don’t like. Red will be bombed until they are dead. No-one expects them to decide they prefer green or yellow. It’s either red or dead for them. Green will be protected as long as they don’t cross over to red, and yellow will be safe as long as they stay in between. In recent months green and yellow have suffered defeat after defeat at the hands of red and without the intervention now planned they would soon be removed from the palette. The immediate task is to stop the red takfiris from taking over the green and yellow takfiri half of Aleppo. As the fortunes of war fluctuate, the greens might go to red and the reds to green or yellow and the yellows to either. The US is likely to end up bombing green thinking it is red and protecting red thinking it is green. In any case, whichever color the US bombs on any particular day, the Syrian military will continue to bomb red, green and yellow. Aleppo is going to end up looking like a Jackson Pollack canvas.

Both Russia and Iran waited for Obama’s speech before issuing warnings against intervention. Maybe they will decide to intervene, too. Russia has warships in the eastern Mediterranean close to the Syrian coast and Iran has a standing army of more than half a million men. For the past four years they have watched western governments and their regional allies turn their ally into a punching bag. How much longer can they stand by and watch this go on irrespective of the international complications? There is a tipping point at which the Syrian war will turn into a much wider war, and open US intervention brings that point very close.

Accidentally or by design or as a mixture of both, the US and its friends created the Islamic state. Now they are pulling back with alarm because of the threat to themselves. Senior military figures in the US and Britain have called for cooperation with Syria but the politicians are not listening. This is their campaign and like Bush, Cheney and Blair before them, they have to be held fully accountable right now for the consequences of what they are setting in motion. We are back in the 1930s, with the ‘liberal democracies’ now behaving as the fascists did.

- Jeremy Salt is an associate professor of Middle Eastern history and politics at Bilkent University in Ankara, Turkey. He contributed this article to PalestineChronicle.com.

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Growing Water Tensions In Central Asia

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Growing tensions in the Ferghana Valley are exacerbated by disputes over shared water resources. To address this, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan urgently need to step back from using water or energy as a coercive tool and focus on reaching a series of modest, bilateral agreements, pending comprehensive resolution of this serious problem.

Political rivalries, economic competition, heightened nationalism and mistrust hamper the search for a solution to the region’s growing water and energy needs. In its latest report, Water Pressures in Central Asia, the International Crisis Group examines the impact of water issues on shared border areas in the volatile Ferghana Valley; water shortages in urban areas; and competing water and energy needs among the three riparian states of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The report also analyses the international community’s potential to contribute to national and regional stability in Central Asia.

Kyrgyzstan is looking at a bleak winter of energy shortages because of low water levels at the Toktogul reservoir and hydropower plant. Energy insecurity and resentment are growing and have proved to be major catalysts in the downfall of successive Kyrgyz administrations. Only mass labour migration and authoritarian tactics have prevented similar upheavals in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

Attempts at comprehensive regional solutions have foundered on mistrust. The three countries (and international backers) should act in the Ferghana Valley border areas to end annual competition and conflict over water by seeking step-by-step solutions rather than an all-inclusive resource settlement. If Uzbekistan will not join, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan should work bilaterally.

Uzbekistan’s irrigation system desperately needs modernisation. Researchers suggest that 50 to 80 per cent of water used for agricultural irrigation is lost.

The failure in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to provide basic services greatly increases the perception that their governments are weak and corrupt and provides a rallying point for opposition movements that seek to oust them.

The donor community, including China, the EU and Russia, should support the region in modernising its water infrastructure, building in effective anti-corruption measures and focusing on direct impact at community levels.

“Corruption, hidden interests and inflexible positions in all three states hinder a mutually acceptable solution. A common development strategy focusing on reform of agricultural and energy sectors would be in their interest”, says Deirdre Tynan, Central Asia Project Director, “but such an initiative requires a radical shift in the way regional leaders think”.

“The failure of Bishkek, Dushanbe and Tashkent to resolve cross-border water problems shows a worrying disregard for stability in their common area. Strained ethnic relations and competition over water and land could be a deadly mix. Conflict in this volatile part of Central Asia risks rapid, possibly irreversible regional destabilisation”, says Paul Quinn-Judge, Europe and Central Asia Program Director.

The post Growing Water Tensions In Central Asia appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Vietnam: Pervasive Deaths, Injuries In Police Custody, Says HRW

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Police throughout Vietnam abuse people in their custody, in some cases leading to death, Human Rights Watch said in a report released today. The Vietnamese government should take immediate action to end suspicious deaths in custody and torture of detainees by police, Human Rights Watch said.

The 96 page report, “Public Insecurity: Deaths in Custody and Police Brutality in Vietnam,” highlights cases of police brutality that resulted in deaths and serious injuries of people in custody between August 2010 and July 2014. Human Rights Watch documented abuses in 44 of Vietnam’s 58 provinces, throughout the country and in all five of the country’s major cities.

“Police severely abused people in custody in every region of Vietnam,” said Phil Robertson, deputy Asia director. “The Vietnam government has a human rights crisis on its hands and should investigate and start holding abusive police accountable.”

The report draws on Human Rights Watch’s review of police abuse cases reported in government controlled Vietnamese-language newspapers, as well as reports from independent bloggers, citizen-journalists, and foreign news agencies. Many of the accounts included in this report have never before been published in English. Human Rights Watch also conducted research in Vietnam for this report but decided to not interview victims and witnesses there because doing so would have exposed them to almost certain retaliation.

In many cases, those killed in police custody were being held for minor infractions. In an August 2012 case, police beat Nguyen Mau Thuan to death in Hanoi after arresting him less than three hours earlier in relation to a minor dispute in his neighborhood. In August 2010, police beat and tear-gassed Le Phuc Hung to death in Gia Lai province while holding him for allegedly stealing water pipes.

Police frequently provided causes for these deaths that strained credulity and gave the appearance of systematic cover-ups. The police alleged that dozens of otherwise mentally and physically healthy people committed suicide by hanging or other methods. In other cases, only a vague and unconvincing explanation was given, as in the case of Nguyen Van Duc in Vinh Long province, who according to an autopsy died from hematoma in the brain and other injuries. Police attributed his injuries to doctors who were “too hard with their hands” during emergency treatment. A surprisingly large number of people—many of them young and healthy in their 20s and 30s—allegedly died from medical problems in custody. Injuries in police custody are also reported frequently throughout the country.

A number of survivors said they were beaten to extract confessions, sometimes for crimes they maintained they did not commit. In July 2013, Soc Trang province police beat and forced six men to confess to a murder. Others said they were beaten for criticizing police officers or trying to reason with them. Victims of beatings also included children and people with mental disabilities.

Local media coverage of these incidents has been uneven, raising serious concerns about the negative impact of government control of the media. In some instances, media reports were extensive and detailed, exposing conflicting police statements and misconduct, such as in the case of Nguyen Cong Nhut, an alleged “suicide” who died in custody in April 2011 in Binh Duong province. On the other hand, there was no media coverage of other key cases, such as the death of Hoang Van Ngai, an ethnic Hmong, in March 2013 in Dak Nong province. Journalists reported that in some cases local authorities had prevented them from approaching the families of victims for interviews.

“Vietnam should permit the media to do its job of investigating and reporting the news about official abuses,” Robertson said. “Independent journalism could help expose abuses that otherwise would be swept under the carpet.”

Officers who commit serious, even lethal, transgressions rarely face serious consequences. In many cases in which abuses are officially acknowledged police officers face only light internal disciplinary procedures, such as criticisms or warnings. Demotions, transfers, or dismissals of offending officers are rare, and prosecutions and convictions even rarer. Even when they are prosecuted and convicted, police officers tend to receive light or suspended sentences.

In one case, a police officer was even promoted after committing abuses. In July 2010, deputy chief Nguyen Huu Khoa of La Phu commune (Hoai Duc district, Hanoi) was accused of beating a truck driver named Nguyen Phu Son. It was unclear how the case was investigated and handled, but by December 2010, Nguyen Huu Khoa had been promoted to chief.

“Vietnam should promptly open an impartial investigation for every accusation of police brutality, and take strong action when the evidence reveals abuse,” Robertson said. “Until police get a loud and clear message from the top levels of government that abuse won’t be tolerated, there will be no security for ordinary people who fall into police hands,”

In several of the cases, Human Rights Watch found that police arrested people based on vague suspicions without supporting evidence, and then beat them to elicit confessions. Police also routinely ignored basic procedures to safeguard citizens against ill-treatment or arbitrary detention and prevented lawyers and legal consultants from gaining immediate access to their clients.

“All persons detained should be granted immediate and unhindered access to their lawyer in order to minimize possible police abuse during interrogation,” said Robertson.

The Vietnam government should immediately adopt a zero-tolerance policy for abuse by police, provide better training for police at all levels, particularly commune police, and install cameras in interrogation and detention facilities. The government also should facilitate the role of legal counsel for suspects and detainees and ensure freedom of expression for journalists and in the internet.

The government should also form an independent police complaints commission to review and investigate all reported police abuse and misconduct and provide high-level support for prompt and impartial investigations and prosecutions of police abuse and misconduct.

“UN agencies and international donors assisting Vietnam establish the rule of law shouldn’t allow these punishing police practices to continue,” Robertson said. “There should be a concerted outcry to press for government action to end police abuses.”

The post Vietnam: Pervasive Deaths, Injuries In Police Custody, Says HRW appeared first on Eurasia Review.

US Poverty Rate 14.5%, First Time Declines Since 2006

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The U.S. Census Bureau said Tuesday that in 2013, the poverty rate declined from the previous year for the first time since 2006, while there was no statistically significant change in either the number of people living in poverty or real median household income.

In addition, the poverty rate for children under 18 declined from the previous year for the first time since 2000. The following results for the nation were compiled from information collected in the 2014 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement.

The nation’s official poverty rate in 2013 was 14.5 percent, down from 15.0 percent in 2012. The 45.3 million people living at or below the poverty line in 2013, for the third consecutive year, did not represent a statistically significant change from the previous year’s estimate.

Median household income in the United States in 2013 was $51,939; the change in real terms from the 2012 median of $51,759 was not statistically significant. This is the second consecutive year that the annual change was not statistically significant, following two consecutive annual declines.

The percentage of people without health insurance coverage for the entire 2013 calendar year was 13.4 percent; this amounted to 42.0 million people.

These findings are contained in two reports: Income and Poverty in the United States: 2013 and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2013.

The Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement was conducted between February and April 2014 and collected information about income and health insurance coverage during the 2013 calendar year. The Current Population Survey, sponsored jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, is conducted every month and is the primary source of labor force statistics for the U.S. population; it is used to calculate the monthly unemployment rate estimates. Supplements are added in most months; the Annual Social and Economic Supplement questionnaire is designed to give annual, calendar-year, national estimates of income, poverty and health insurance numbers and rates.

Traditionally, the Census Bureau releases detailed comparisons of year-to-year changes in health insurance from this survey. However, because of the redesign of the Current Population Survey’s health insurance section of the questionnaire, its estimates of health insurance coverage are not directly comparable to estimates from prior years. Research suggested the Current Population Survey estimates needed improvement, as the estimates were not in line with other sources. The redesigned survey is based on over a decade of research, including two national field tests as well as cognitive testing. The survey improvements this year will better measure health insurance coverage for the prior calendar year, thus providing a strong 2013 baseline to measure future changes in health insurance coverage caused by the Affordable Care Act.

The health insurance report contains Current Population Survey statistics only for 2013. However, limited statistics on year-to-year changes based on the American Community Survey are available in the report. The report also includes state-level American Community Survey health insurance coverage statistics. According to the American Community Survey, the percent of people without health insurance coverage declined 0.2 percent between 2012 and 2013.

The American Community Survey has collected data on health insurance coverage since 2008. Additional sources of health insurance coverage data not included in this report are the Small Area Health Insurance Estimates and National Health Interview Survey.

The Current Population Survey-based income and poverty report includes comparisons with one year earlier. State and local income and poverty results, as well as state and local health insurance coverage results, will be available Thursday, Sept. 18, from the American Community Survey.

The post US Poverty Rate 14.5%, First Time Declines Since 2006 appeared first on Eurasia Review.

India’s Silk Route Dilemma – Analysis

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By Darshana M. Baruah

The ongoing South Asia trip by Chinese President Xi Jinping attaches great importance to China’s growing maritime dimension in the Indian Ocean. Beginning his tour with the Maldives — a first by a Chinese leader — Xi secured the island nation’s support in the new ’21st Century Maritime Silk Route’ (MSR) initiative. Given that Sri Lanka has already shown keen interest in joining the MSR initiative, the highlight of Xi’s South Asia tour would be the outcome of his visit to India from Wednesday.

Xi put forward the idea of a MSR while addressing the Indonesian Parliament during his maiden trip to Southeast Asia in 2013. Xi was the first foreign leader to address the Indonesian parliament. His speech signalled Beijing’s desire to engage further with the Southeast Asian nations. Emphasising on ’win-win’ cooperation between China and ASEAN, Xi pushed forward the agenda of regional economic integration and improved connectivity between the nations. Putting forward the concept of the MSR, Xi stressed that “Southeast Asia has since ancient times been an important hub along the ancient Maritime Silk Route. China will strengthen maritime cooperation with ASEAN countries to make good use of the China-ASEAN Maritime Cooperation Fund set up by the Chinese government and vigorously develop maritime partnership in a joint effort to build the Maritime Silk Road of the 21st century.”

The MSR was then reiterated by Premier Li Keqiang during his trips to Brueni, Thailand and Vietnam, underpinning Xi’s call for improved connectivity and regional integration. Both Xi and Li received favourable responses to the MSR and on increasing connectivity, laying the basis for Beijing to pursue other nations along the proposed route through the Indian Ocean.

While the Chinese proposal on MSR lacks clarity with respect to its intentions and details about the project, information1 available so far indicates that establishment of free trade zones, building port infrastructure and increasing connectivity is at the core of the project. Apart from the support being offered through the China-ASEAN Maritime Cooperation Fund, Beijing in May this year set up a 10 billion Yuan ($1.6 billion) fund to support the ambitious project linking the Pacific and the Indian Ocean. The MSR has become a key initiative in Beijing’s maritime policy, reflecting its rising naval profile and the desire to expand its reach and access out of the Western Pacific and into the Indian Ocean.

Although the importance of the MSR is laid on promoting greater economic integration and boosting connectivity through the Indian Ocean, the strategic significance of such a project cannot be underestimated. Xi’s trip to the Maldives speaks volumes about Beijing’s seriousness toward the MSR and the importance of winning the support of these strategically located islands in the Indian Ocean.

For India, the MSR is more of a strategic concern than an economic opportunity. By promoting connectivity and investing in building infrastructure and developing ports in the Indian Ocean Littorals, China’s access and reach through the region will grow immensely. Besides increased connectivity in the region, the proposed route will provide China with an incentive to expand its presence to the Bay of Bengal.

New Delhi has always been wary of Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean and the MSR is only likely to add to the uncertainties given the lack of details in the proposed concept.

While the initial reaction from New Delhi towards the initiative has been positive, officials have requested more details on the project before formally accepting or declining Beijing’s invitation.

Even though most of the Southeast Asian nations have indicated their interest in joining the MSR, the unresolved territorial disputes in the Western Pacific shadow Beijing’s initiative on the MSR. Coupled with lack of information on the project, the MSR can be perceived as a strategic move to dominate the maritime domain through economic and cultural influence and expand Beijing’s presence throughout the Indian Ocean.

For New Delhi, the issue is crucial with important Sea Lines of Communication passing through the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean. A dominant Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean would mean a significant strategic influence through the region — a development that New Delhi cannot ignore at any cost.

With a successful trip to the Maldives, Xi is most likely to bring up the topic of India joining the MSR when he meets Prime Minister Modi later this week. India must weigh its strategic consequences should this concept materialise with the support that Beijing seeks. India has to fight the dilemma between economic opportunities and increased Chinese strategic presence posed by the initiative. It must provide a framework explaining New Delhi’s approach and outlook on Beijing’s Maritime Silk Route of the 21st Century.

1. Also see, Ananth Krishnan, ’Beijing’s ’new Silk Road’ to boost maritime, road links’, The Hindu, August 11, 2014

(The writer is a Junior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation and Associate Editor of ORF South China Sea Monitor)

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