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Distorting Islam – OpEd

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Writing in the London Daily Telegraph on September 18, Dr Hasanat Husain, a prominent British Muslim, depicts the Islamic State as “composed of people who have vowed to establish a blood-drenched caliphate in which only their distorted version of Islam – a fusion of misogyny, intolerance and mayhem – will hold sway. We have an obligation,” he asserts, “to snatch our faith from the clutches of these killers. These so-called Muslims are damaging Islam and dishonouring the Prophet.” He calls on Muslims “in particular” to stop IS from the pursuit of its unacceptable objective.

Dr Husain is surely correct in maintaining that the bloodthirsty activities of IS are damaging Islam – certainly so in the eyes of the non-Islamic world. He does not, however, go quite as far as British prime minister, David Cameron, a few days earlier, in his televised address utterly deploring the beheading by IS of its third victim, aid worker David Haines. “Islam,” declared Cameron, “is a religion of peace.”

There is a widespread belief that the word “Islam” is derived from “al-Salaam” (which is “peace”). However, Lissan al-Arab, perhaps the most authoritative lexicon of the Arabic language, states that it is derived from the root verb istaslama, which means ‘to submit’ or ‘to surrender’ (meaning, of course, submission to the will of Allah).

Cameron’s assertion instantly stirred up a hornets’ nest of comment. Quoting all sorts of chapters and verses from the Quran and elsewhere, writers fell over each other to maintain that the Muslim religion was nothing of the sort. Indeed, when Pope Benedict XVI was asked whether Islam could be considered a religion of peace, he refused to respond positively. “It certainly contains elements that can favor peace,” he said. “It also has other elements. We must always seek the best elements.”

The best elements must surely include the five tenets of Islam which are the foundation of observant Muslim life, and which together constitute the basic religious duties every Muslim must perform. These are first the declaration of faith (“There is no god but God, and Muhammed is his messenger”); secondly undertaking ritual prayer five times a day; thirdly compulsory alms-giving of at least 2.5 per cent of one’s income; fourthly fasting in the month of Ramadan; and fifthly making a pilgrimage to Mecca at least once, if possible.

It is, perhaps, when examining the broader principles underlying the faith that Pope Benedict’s misgivings are revealed. They are summarised – rightly or wrongly – by author and film-maker Gregory M Davis, who writes: “Islamic scholarship divides the world into the House of Islam (i.e., those nations who have submitted to Allah), and the House of War (i.e., those who have not). It is this dispensation that the world lived under in Muhammad’s time and that it lives under today. Then, as now, Islam’s message to the unbelieving world is the same: submit or be conquered.” Supporting this contention, journalist Melanie Phillips in a recent article wrote: “Millions of Muslims believe that Islam should rule the world, and that jihad is the path to this end. The fact that millions of other Muslims do not believe this does not make it any less of a core Islamic tenet.”

But for the vast majority of the Muslim world considerations like these are academic, if not arcane. Most people know that there is ample opportunity in the sources and holy writings of Islam, no less than of Judaism or Christianity, for zealots, extremists or opponents to place their own distorted interpretations on the faith. William Shakespeare, as ever, puts the case in a nutshell and most felicitously in “The Merchant of Venice”:

“The devil can cite Scripture for his purpose.
An evil soul producing holy witness
Is like a villain with a smiling cheek,
A goodly apple rotten at the heart.
O, what a goodly outside falsehood hath!”

Of course, most Muslims deplore the brutality and violence being perpetrated in the name of their religion by extremists, seeking dominance and power. These sentiments were expressed with some force in a letter sent to the UK prime minister on September 14 by a coalition of imams and organisations representing British Muslims.

“Dear Prime Minister,” they begin, “as human beings, we have been sickened by the murders committed by the terror group ISIS. As Britons, we have been troubled that some young men from our society have been misled into believing that taking part in such hatred and poison would be some kind of adventure. And, as Muslims we have been appalled that these actions are being undertaken by those who claim to be inspired by our faith, which is a vicious libel on the Islam we believe in.”

They continue: “We do not believe the terror group responsible should be given the credence and standing they seek by styling themselves Islamic State. It is neither Islamic, nor is it a state… we believe the media, civic society and governments should refuse to legitimise these ludicrous caliphate fantasies by accepting or propagating this name. We propose that ‘Un-Islamic State’ (UIS) could be an accurate and fair alternative name to describe this group and its agenda – and we will begin to call it that.”

There could be no more unequivocal a rejection of the distorted concept of Islam espoused by IS and other jihadists, both Sunni and Shia, who are making hay while the sun shines on a war-torn Iraq and Syria.

These leading British Muslims speak also for others in their community. On September 17 a group of young British Muslims joined the fight back against IS militants with a video and social media campaign which they call “Not In My Name”. Their intention is to show that IS does not represent the Islamic faith or the Muslim community, and to spread the word that British Muslims reject IS, its ideology and actions that “use Islam to justify evil objectives.”

In the years since the growth of indiscriminate terrorist attacks by Islamist extremists, there have been many calls to the Muslim world to take a more proactive stance against those who carry out these acts in the name of Islam. It has taken the emergence of IS, and its particular forms of brutality, at last to rally moderate and reasonable Muslim opinion against the distortion of their faith.

The post Distorting Islam – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Salmond: Scots Were Tricked Into Voting ‘No’

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London politicians gulled Scottish voters out of independence by making a false “vow” to grant Glasgow extra powers, First Minister Alex Salmond has said. He also raised the prospect of another referendum, saying the break-up is inevitable.

Alex Salmond, leader of the ‘Yes’ campaign and the outgoing head of the Scottish National Party (SNP), told the BBC’s Sunday Politics program that the UK government won last Thursday’s referendum vote by 55-45 percent by deceiving the people ahead the referendum and promising to rapidly expand Scottish autonomy.

“I think the vow was something cooked up in desperation for the last few days of the campaign and I think everyone in Scotland now realizes that,” said Salmond.

“It is the people who were persuaded to vote no, who were misled, who were gulled, who were tricked effectively,” he added. “They are the ones who are really angry.”

Just over a week before the historic referendum, Britain’s major political parties promised Scots more autonomy over tax and welfare spending if they chose to stay in the UK.

Following the referendum results and Scotland’s decision to stay in the union, British Prime Minister David Cameron said that constitutional reforms, including in Scotland, would not be delivered until after the general election, and the changes would be linked with those in Britain.

Salmond said he was “surprised by the speed” in which the UK authorities started breaking their vow, adding that they are “totally shameless in these matters.”

“Within 24 hours they started to tear up the commitments,” he said.

On Sunday, Downing Street dismissed Salmond’s claims that Britain’s three major political parities are continuing to disagree over handling the process of devolution.

The spokesman for David Cameron said the government is still committed to move forward with the new powers over tax, spending, and welfare, stating the issues are to be agreed on by November and the legislation is to be drafted by January.

Salmond raised the prospect of a future referendum, which could be justified if the UK parties fail to honor their pledge. He said that in his “personal view,” a referendum could only be staged around once in every 20 years. However, “there are always things can change circumstances.”

In another interview with Sky News’ Murnaghan program on Sunday, Salmond elaborated on the issue, saying the break-up of the UK is inevitable and is only a matter of time.

“I mean when you have a situation where the majority of a country up to the age of 55 is already voting for independence then I think the writing’s on the wall for Westminster. I think the destination is pretty certain, we are only now debating the timescale and the method,” he said.

“I think Scots of my generation and above should really be looking at themselves in the mirror and wonder if we by majority, as a result of our decision, have actually impeded progress for the next generation which is something no generation should do.”

He argued that there might be other ways to break ties with the UK, including Scotland’s parliament gaining more leverage and then declaring independence. However, he stressed that a referendum still remains “the best route.”

The post Salmond: Scots Were Tricked Into Voting ‘No’ appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Real Madrid In Final Talks To Change Name Of Stadium For €500m

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According to a report in Marca, Real Madrid are close to sealing the biggest deal in football history to rename the Santiago Bernabeu.

The stadium is currently named after ex-player and president Santiago Bernabeu who was largely responsible for Real Madrid’s rise in the 20th century into Europe’s most successful club.

Reports suggest that the deal could be made with the International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC) which is owned by the Government of Abu Dhabi, and that it would be in the region of €450-500m over 20 years – €25m per year until 2034!

The IPIC will be the body making the deal, but it is Abu Dhabi who is behind the deal. There is no confirmation on the name yet, but there are suggestions that ‘Abu Dhabi’ may appear along with ‘Bernabeu’ in the name.

The brand name CEPSA (Compañía Española de Petróleos), a Spanish multinational oil and gas company, is also a possibility as they are owned by the IPIC.

The name will not be agreed upon until the stadium is refurbished. The club has already signed a sponsorship deal with the National Bank of Abu Dhabi.

The incoming revenue will help Real Madrid remodel the stadium and its facilities; with only a legal hurdle in the form of an appeal against the plan by the Civic Platform Neighbours Bernabeu in the way.

But Madrid are confident that they will win the case and will be allowed to go ahead with their plans to improve the stadium that has a capacity of over 85,000.

Club president Florentino Perez was concerned with how the fans would react to renaming the Santiago Bernabeu. But with such a lucrative offer on the table, there was no way he could refuse.

Other stadiums who have a commercial sponsor’s name in the stadium name include Arsenal (Emirates Stadium), Bayern Munich (Allianz Arena) and Manchester City (Etihad Stadium).

The post Real Madrid In Final Talks To Change Name Of Stadium For €500m appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Rescue Of Turkish Citizens In Iraq Is Diplomatic Victory – Erdoğan

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With regard to rescue of 49 Mosul Consulate hostages, President Erdoğan said “this is a victory of diplomacy and political bargain”, Turkish TV channel TRT reported.

Ahead of his departure for New York Sunday afternoon to attend the 69th UN General Assembly meeting, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan replied the questions of news people after a press brief he made at Ankara Esenboga Airport.

When asked about claims that Turkey bargained with the ISIL to rescue the Mosul Consulate hostages, President Erdogan said that a financial bargain with the ISIL is totally out of question.

President Erdogan added, “The (rescue) operation was a move which displayed deft and skillfulness of our own intelligence organization as well as showing that Turkey should be taken into account when the region is considered.”

Erdogan underlined that reunion of the 49 citizens with their countries was the top priority of the operation.

Stressing that a detailed meeting with US President Barack Obama at the UN is unlikely, the President said, “after all, there is no such meeting format at the UN General Assembly.”

However, he noted that US Vice President Joe Biden has requested a meeting, and a wide-scope meeting is possible with Mr. Biden on the sidelines of the UN meeting.

The post Rescue Of Turkish Citizens In Iraq Is Diplomatic Victory – Erdoğan appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Gaza Families Mourn Amid Failure To Find Missing Shipwreck Victims

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More than two weeks after a boat carrying migrants to Europe sunk off the coast of Malta, none of the bodies of Palestinians who are thought to have drowned at sea have been recovered by search teams.

Eight Palestinians are known to have survived the Sept. 6 shipwreck that killed around 500 migrants, and they are being cared for between Italy, Greece, and Malta.

But Palestinian ambassador to Italy Mai al-Kaila on Saturday told Ma’an that rescuers have had difficulties recovering bodies from the sea because the boat capsized in international waters.

Despite this, however, she said that Italian coastal guards are continuing the search for the missing.

Al-Kaila said that Italian authorities have promised to give political asylum to two Palestinians who survived the shipwreck, and the pair will also be allowed to bring their families to live in Italy.

Meanwhile, Marwan Tubasi, Palestine’s ambassador to Greece, told Ma’an Saturday that authorities in that country had granted three Palestinian survivors permission to stay for six months, and that the embassy was working to acquire them Palestinian passports as well.

Families in ‘open mourning’

The fate of those who were unable to make it to European shores, however, is far less certain at this stage, with ambassadors in all three countries pointing out that coast guards have failed to locate any of the missing Palestinians from the sea so far.

In Gaza, some families have already started mourning their missing loved ones, as the days have dragged on and no indication of their survival has surfaced.

Dozens of family members of the missing migrants on Sunday demonstrated outside the office of the International Committee of the Red Cross in Gaza City, urging authorities to give them more information on the whereabouts of their missing loved ones.

“15 days have passed and we still haven’t received any news about my husband and my son,” said protester Um Udayy Nahhal.

Speaking to reporters while carrying a photo of her husband Fawzi Nahhal and her seven-year-old son Udayy, she said that the pair were among the migrants feared dead in the shipwreck.

“It is my very right to know whether they are alive or dead,” she told reporters.

A spokesman of the families of missing Gazan migrants also urged the ICRC and other human rights groups to reveal the destiny of the missing migrants for the last 15 days.

Gaza resident Khalil Abu Shammala told Ma’an that two of his sons were on the boat which capsized two weeks ago, one of an unknown number of Palestinians from Gaza who fled to Egypt before boarding the vessel to seek a better life across the sea in Europe.

“The families of the missing people have been in open mourning” for the last two weeks he said, appealing to President Mahmoud Abbas to help uncover information regarding those still missing from the shipwreck.

A key part of the problem relates to the issue of jurisdiction, since the fact that the boat capsized in international water — meaning more than 200 nautical miles away from any coast — means no nearby state is immediately responsible for recovery, while the home states of the migrants themselves generally lack the ability to carry out any rescue operations.

Palestine to ask Egypt to stop allowing boats to sail

Despite this, the undersecretary of the Palestinian foreign ministry Taysir Jaradat told Ma’an that he would lead a Palestinian delegation to Italy, Malta, and Greece in the coming days to follow up on the boat accident.

The delegation, he said, plans to ask authorities in the three countries for information about the missing Palestinians who potentially drowned in their territorial waters.

Jaradat added that the Palestinian foreign ministry had contacted the Egyptian authorities and asked them to prevent human traffickers from sending migrant boats from Egyptian territories.

Any action on the part of Egyptian authorities, however, will likely fail to stem the flow of migrants across the sea, which has shot up to its highest level in recorded memory this year.

So far, watchdogs say that more than 120,000 migrants have crossed the sea in 2014 alone so far, while more than 2,500 have perished.

The surge is the result of political instability and a lack of economic prospects across the southern Mediterranean and Africa, and the number includes many Palestinians who have fled Syria as well as Gaza via boat from Egypt.

Due to unrest in neighboring Libya and heavy surveillance of the seas off the Moroccan coast, thousands of migrants have started making the trek from Egypt in recent months, a far more lengthy — and far more dangerous — trip than before.

The migrants include hundreds of Gazans who are thought to have escaped via tunnels to Egypt in order to flee the nearly two-month offensive that left more than 2,000 dead and 110,000 homeless in the tiny coastal enclave.

The mass devastation wreaked by the Israeli bombardment has dimmed Gaza’s economic prospects for the near future even further, and as Egypt continues to crack down on movement of goods and people through tunnels — including shooting one man dead on Saturday — the tide is likely to continue.

The post Gaza Families Mourn Amid Failure To Find Missing Shipwreck Victims appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Saudi Arabia: Pilgrims Being Tested For Ebola At Jeddah Airport

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Pilgrims arriving at Saudi Arabia’s King Abdulaziz International Airport (KAIA) are being screened, tested and given preventive medication against the Ebola virus.

Fahd Al-Ghazwi, supervisor of the preventive center at the airport, told a local newspaper that a medical team wearing protective clothing “examines pilgrims who have flown in for Haj, especially pilgrims coming from West Africa.”

Passengers are required to fill out medical forms and are administered medication as soon as they disembark from their flights.

Abdul Ghani Al-Malki, KAIA’s health control center director, emphasized the pressing need to examine each and every pilgrim entering the Kingdom.

“We are in the process of implementing a drill on how to handle a suspected case of illness or Ebola to ensure that teams are ready to act,” explained Al-Malki.

Fuad Sindi, medical director of the airport’s health control center, said the medical teams will use thermal cameras and visual observation to detect signs of Ebola.

“A rapid intervention team will be on standby to take any diagnosed case of Ebola directly to the hospital,” said Al-Malki.

A traveler who had been suspected of having the Ebola virus was recently transferred to hospital in an ambulance, but was found to be free from the disease upon testing.

Ahmad Al-Issa, medical services supervisor at the Interior Ministry, recently inspected health facilities in Makkah, Jeddah and Madinah to ensure readiness ahead of the busy season.

The post Saudi Arabia: Pilgrims Being Tested For Ebola At Jeddah Airport appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Charity Needs Caution – OpEd

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By Saad Dosari

Haj is drawing near and along with it comes yet another season of “charity hunts.” Hundreds of messages and invitations about charity opportunities have stated to appear everywhere — SR10 for food, SR5 for water, SR500 for sacrificial animal and so on.

The only message I have for you, make sure you know where your contribution is going. Islam and for that matter every religion lays great emphasis on giving charity. It is an act of generosity and sacrifice one makes from his/her hard-earned money just to help others whether related or not. It is an act of self-denial, a proof of goodness and a demonstration of kind-heartedness.

And what makes charity so sentimental and emotional, is exactly what makes it, sometimes, dangerous! Life is not so simple as it used to be; the message you receive on the mobile asking you to donate SR10 to help print new copies of Qur’an to be distributed in Africa is not the same as when your grandfather used to collect SR2 from his neighbors to help the guy by the end of the street whose shop got gutted in a fire.

The harsh fact is that there are those who exploit such noble sentiments and pure tendencies to promote their own diabolical designs. The riyals you thought would end up as a pencil in the hands of a little kid in a school somewhere could end up as a bullet in his head, and what you thought would help in quenching pilgrims thirst with cold sips of water could end up spilling fire on the heads of poor families in a village somewhere in the world.

The rise of organized terrorism back in the 80s and the establishment of so many terror organizations owe their existence to many fake charity centers. From the West to the East, working in different cultures and tapping on the religious sentiments of various peoples, dubious centers were built to source funds to these terror organizations.

Helping the poor, fighting hunger, buildings schools, and digging water wells were all fairy tales told to melt hearts, to raise funds for these groups working in the dark. Billions of riyals were channeled to support different terror groups all over the world. By the beginning of the new millennium, and especially after the catastrophic event of 9/11, the masks on the faces of whom we thought were merciful angels dropped, and their true faces were out in the open; hideous demons.

Since then, along with money laundering, taxes evasion, and drugs finances, fighting and tracing terror groups funding is a major activity of so many financial security authorities around the world. New rules to collect charities, to wire them, to transfer them, to monitor them were put in place.

Here in the Kingdom, it is not allowed to publicize and to collect any resources for any charitable cause without obtaining approval from the government. So it is not a one-man show, a WhatsApp message, an email, or an unknown bank account out there; collecting charities adheres to a system monitored by higher authorities for the purpose of organization and security.

This is not a call for stinginess, to deprive you from that alluring feeling of giving and helping others, but it is a guarantee that your resources are directed to the right places, to where you actually intended.

You can still help that neighbor whom you know needs cash, the friend of your kid in the school whom you know needs support, but when it comes to charity calls and messages that you cannot verify, you may need to back down and consider your options. There are many licensed charity organizations in the Kingdom that you could look up to give back to the society, to make a good deed, and to submit to the teachings of Islam. It is all about making the right choice, that’s all.

@smaldosari

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Kerry And Iran’s Zarif Discuss IS Threat

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(RFE/RL) — U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif have discussed the threat posed by Islamic State militants during talks in New York on September 21.

Both countries view IS — which has seized vast swaths of territory in Iraq and Syria — as a threat, but commentators say deep-seated mistrust keeps them from publically cooperating to defeat the extremists.

A U.S. official said the two also discussed the prospects of reaching an agreement on reducing Tehran’s atomic activities in exchange for an end to nuclear-related sanctions on the Tehran.

Their meeting came on the third day of the latest round of nuclear talks between Iran and six world powers — the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany.

The talks have been stalled for months over Iran’s opposition to sharply reducing the size and output of centrifuges that can enrich uranium both to levels needed for reactor fuel or the core of nuclear warheads.

Iran denies Western charges it is using its nuclear program to secretly develop nuclear weapons.

The post Kerry And Iran’s Zarif Discuss IS Threat appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Why Ordinary People Bear Economic Risks And Donald Trump Doesn’t – OpEd

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Thirty years ago, on its opening day in 1984, Donald Trump stood in a dark topcoat on the casino floor at Atlantic City’s Trump Plaza, celebrating his new investment as the finest building in Atlantic City and possibly the nation.

Last week, the Trump Plaza folded and the Trump Taj Mahal filed for bankruptcy, leaving some 1,000 employees without jobs.

Trump, meanwhile, was on twitter claiming he had “nothing to do with Atlantic City,” and praising himself for his “great timing” in getting out of the investment.

In America, people with lots of money can easily avoid the consequences of bad bets and big losses by cashing out at the first sign of trouble.

The laws protect them through limited liability and bankruptcy.

But workers who move to a place like Atlantic City for a job, invest in a home there, and build their skills, have no such protection. Jobs vanish, skills are suddenly irrelevant, and home values plummet.

They’re stuck with the mess.

Bankruptcy was designed so people could start over. But these days, the only ones starting over are big corporations, wealthy moguls, and Wall Street.

Corporations are even using bankruptcy to break contracts with their employees. When American Airlines went into bankruptcy three years ago, it voided its labor agreements and froze its employee pension plan.

After it emerged from bankruptcy last year and merged with U.S. Airways, America’s creditors were fully repaid, its shareholders came out richer than they went in, and its CEO got a severance package valued at $19.9 million.

But American’s former employees got shafted.

Wall Street doesn’t worry about failure, either. As you recall, the Street almost went belly up six years ago after risking hundreds of billions of dollars on bad bets.

A generous bailout from the federal government kept the bankers afloat. And since then, most of the denizens of the Street have come out just fine.

Yet more than 4 million American families have so far have lost their homes. They were caught in the downdraft of the Street’s gambling excesses.

They had no idea the housing bubble would burst, and didn’t read the fine print in the mortgages the bankers sold them.

But they weren’t allowed to declare bankruptcy and try to keep their homes.

When some members of Congress tried to amend the law to allow homeowners to use bankruptcy, the financial industry blocked the bill.

There’s no starting over for millions of people laden with student debt, either.

Student loan debt has more than doubled since 2006, from $509 billion to $1.3 trillion. It now accounts for 40 percent of all personal debt – more than credit card debts and auto loans.

But the bankruptcy law doesn’t cover student debts. The student loan industry made sure of that.

If former students can’t meet their payments, lenders can garnish their paychecks. (Some borrowers, still behind by the time they retire, have even found chunks taken out of their Social Security checks.)

The only way borrowers can reduce their student debt burdens is to prove in a separate lawsuit that repayment would impose an “undue hardship” on them and their dependents.

This is a stricter standard than bankruptcy courts apply to gamblers trying to reduce their gambling debts.

You might say those who can’t repay their student debts shouldn’t have borrowed in the first place. But they had no way of knowing just how bad the jobs market would become. Some didn’t know the diplomas they received from for-profit colleges weren’t worth the paper they were written on.

A better alternative would be to allow former students to use bankruptcy where the terms of the loans are clearly unreasonable (including double-digit interest rates, for example), or the loans were made to attend schools whose graduates have very low rates of employment after graduation.

Economies are risky. Some industries rise and others implode, like housing. Some places get richer, and others drop, like Atlantic City. Some people get new jobs that pay better, many lose their jobs or their wages.

The basic question is who should bear these risks. As long as the laws shield large investors while putting the risks on ordinary people, investors will continue to make big bets that deliver jackpots when they win but create losses for everyone else.

Average working people need more fresh starts. Big corporations, banks, and Donald Trump need fewer.

The post Why Ordinary People Bear Economic Risks And Donald Trump Doesn’t – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Self-Inflicted Wounds: The Toll Is Mounting From More Accessible Drugs

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By David W. Murray

On September 16, the White House’s drug control policy office blasted out a press release claiming that youth drug use was “down 24 percent.” At least, they tell us, when measured from 2002. Say, what? That would be the first full year of the George W. Bush Administration. In reality, the shape of the data is a steep V, in fact down from 2002, but turning at the bottom in 2008, and then sharply rising once the Obama Administration took over.

Obama Administration spin aside, this last month saw three major data releases that paint a far more troubling portrait of the country’s drug problem, particularly given our plunge into the brave new world of legal marijuana.

Workplace drug testing results, from Quest Diagnostics, provide more than 8.5 million data points a year charting positive tests for a range of illegal drugs. Historically, Quest data have coincided tightly with other indicators of drug use, tracking both the marijuana and the cocaine declines of the previous decade. Their Index report for 2013, therefore, is troubling.

As Quest notes, “positive drug tests for American workers increased for the first time in more than a decade.” The main drivers of the increase were amphetamines and marijuana, the latter having increased nationally, but “by double digits in Colorado and Washington state.”1

Hair testing, which allows detection over a longer time period than other means, showed an increase in marijuana positive rates of 43 percent between 2009 and 2013 in the general U.S. workforce. Amphetamine positives surged 70 percent over the same time period—while the most recent national survey shows that the non-medical use of the pharmaceutical amphetamine Adderall, in past month use by 18-25 year olds, climbed 45 percent since 2008.

According to the latest National Household Survey on Drug Use and Health (yes, the tables for 2013 were quietly posted on the Health and Human Services website on September 15, after numerous complaints about their non-availability), overall use of marijuana for the population 12 and older has increased since the Bush Administration by 29 percent.2

More troubling, however, the measure of “daily use” during the period of the past year for marijuana has soared 84 percent, while “daily use” for the past month has climbed almost 60 percent (the latter being measured from the most recent low points in 2006 and 2007—see chart below).

Figure 2.15 Daily or Almost Daily Marijuana Use in the Past Year and Past Month among Persons Aged 12 or Older: 2002-2013  Source: Substance Abuse and Health Services Administration, Results from the 2013 National Survey on Drug Use and Health: Summary of National Findings.

Figure 2.15 Daily or Almost Daily Marijuana Use in the Past Year and Past Month among Persons Aged 12 or Older: 2002-2013
Source: Substance Abuse and Health Services Administration, Results from the 2013 National Survey on Drug Use and Health: Summary of National Findings.

Increased “daily use” of marijuana is a clear signal of more and more people in the grip of a highly potent, deeply habituating drug—the new “industrial dope” being produced and distributed nationwide in an unchecked manner by legal-marijuana Colorado.

Though the new regime of industrial dope has been operating only since January of this year, the damage reports are already mounting. The Rocky Mountain High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area (HIDTA), a law enforcement fusion center, published urgent warnings in a new report last month.

Their data show dramatic and negative changes in Colorado since 2009, when access to medical marijuana became virtually unlimited. Since no systematic baseline measure was ever put in place prior to legalization, the HIDTA has been forced to piece together multiple data reports from several sources. Nevertheless, these data are a striking indictment of those who argue the legalization of marijuana makes American communities safer, and they augur significant damage to come from the drug policy path we are on.

From 2008 to 2012, traffic fatalities with operators testing positive for marijuana increased 81 percent.3 Through 2013, highway interdiction of marijuana, smuggled to 40 other states, has risen 397 percent, with U.S. Mail parcel intercepts up 1,280 percent.4 Overall crime in Denver is up 6.7 percent, measuring the first six months of 2013 compared to the same period of 2014, with “extraction lab” explosions doubling.5

Drug-related suspensions and expulsions from school increased 32 percent from 2009 until 2013, with Colorado youth use of marijuana being already, prior to 2014, measured at a rate 39 percent higher than the national average.6 Young adult rates of marijuana use were 42 percent higher than the national average, while adults over age 26 used marijuana at rates 51 percent higher.7 Children five and younger are “exposed” to marijuana at rates triple the national average, with marijuana-related hospital admissions rising 82 percent since 2008.8

None of these strikingly negative changes has yet to represent the impact of full legalization, implemented in January 2014. So there is surely worse to come, with an explosion of drug use, the health and criminal justice consequences of this use, and the muscle of the criminal operations taking advantage of the new permissive landscape and its promised profits.

These data provide the actual report card on this Administration, which declared an “end to the war on drugs,” facilitated the unprecedented legalization of marijuana, and even now is spurning the global anti-drug international partnerships that protect us all. Unlike the threat from Ebola, the damage from this behavioral disease is largely self-inflicted, and the means of protecting ourselves is in our own hands, if we choose to push back.

Author:
David W. Murray, Senior Fellow at The Hudson Institute.

Source:
This article was published by The Hudson Institute.

Notes:
1 Quest Diagnostics, “Quest Diagnostics Drug Testing Index,” September 11, 2014. http://www.questdiagnostics.com/home/physicians/health-trends/drug-testing. ↝
2 Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, Results from the 2013 National Survey on Drug Use and Health: Summary of National Findings, NSDUH Series H-48, HHS Publication No. (SMA) 14-4863. Rockville, MD: Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, 2014. ↝
3 Rocky Mountain High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area, The Legalization of Marijuana in Colorado: The Impact, Volume 2/August 2014. pp.9-10. ↝
4 Ibid, 91. ↝
5 Ibid, 124, 135. ↝
6 Ibid, 30-31. ↝
7 Ibid, 24, 44. ↝
8 Ibid 60, 74. ↝

The post Self-Inflicted Wounds: The Toll Is Mounting From More Accessible Drugs appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Sixteen Years Is Too Long: Continuing Fight Against Lawless Case Of Cuban Five – OpEd

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ByJuan Acosta

Sixteen years is too long. September 12th, 2014 marked sixteen years since the Cuban Five (Gerardo Hernández, Ramón Labañino, Fernando González, Antonio Guerrero, and René González) were arrested and imprisoned in the United States on spurious, politically motivated charges. During the past week, the International Committee for the Freedom of the Cuban Five and the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS) organized a series of events in Washington DC. These actions included a forum to discuss the case at Georgetown University; visits by advocates to over twenty Congressional and Senatorial offices; and a protest in front of the White House. The activities took place from September 11th through September 13th to garner support and demonstrate the ongoing solidarity for those who remain imprisoned. In addition to events in Washington, there were simultaneous acts of solidarity in New York, Chicago, San Francisco, Miami, and Toronto, which vehemently condemned the United States government’s unjust infringement of the fundamental human rights of the Cuban Five.

The Cuban Five (two of which, René and Antonio, were born in the U.S. to Cuban parents) are Cubans who were arrested on September 12, 1998 on multiple charges, among them conspiracy to conduct espionage. However, the case can be made that these men should more properly be seen as heroes, not criminals. In 1997, there were a series of bombings at major Cuban hotels including Hotel Copacabana, Hotel Nacional de Cuba, and Meliá Cohiba Hotel, which resulted in the death Italian tourist, Fabio di Celmo. These terrorist attacks were an organized effort to deter tourism on the island perpetrated by extremist anti-Castro Cuban exiles based in Miami[i]. In June 1998, three months prior to their arrests, FBI agents visited Havana and were given a plethora of evidence that overwhelmingly linked terrorist attacks against Cuba to venomous anti-Castro Miamians such as Luis Posada Carriles[ii]. What the FBI did with the evidence is unclear. What is clear is that these five men attempted to gather intelligence to avoid subsequent violent terrorist attacks by Cuban expatriates living in Miami. Three months after the FBI’s visit to Havana, Gerardo, Antonio, René, Fernando, and Ramón were apprehended and thrown into solitary confinement for seventeen months as they awaited trial.

The trial of the Cuban Five took place in Miami, a hotbed of anti-Castro Cubans, under conditions which undoubtedly impacted the outcome of the trial. Additionally, it was uncovered that the U.S. government hired local reporters to churn out a high volume of prejudicial articles against The Five. Although the highly charged atmosphere raised serious doubts about the ability of the jurors to be impartial, motions by the defense to move the venue of the trial were denied by the judge, Joan Lenard. Today, René and Fernando are with their families in Cuba after serving their sentences and being released, while Gerardo, Ramón, and Antonio remain in prison. When political differences hinder the spirit of justice, as is the case with the Cuban Five, it is monumental travesty for democracies everywhere.

COHA has previously written on The Cuban Five and firmly stands alongside the Free Five grassroots efforts to successfully garner international attention and call on Washington to take action and no longer ignore this issue. Larry Birns, Director of COHA, describes this case as “a blatant miscarriage of justice, something that President Obama could have remedied during his first month in office so his rhetoric about justice matched his practice.”

In 2005, the United Nations Group on Arbitrary Detention denounced the manner in which the case was handled, finding numerous problematic procedures in this case that deprived Cuban defendants of their liberties.[iii] In 2009, an amicus brief was filed before the Supreme Court by eight Nobel Prize laureates from around the world in an attempt to have the U.S. federal government intervene to correct this travesty of justice and salvage what remains of Gerardo, Ramón, and Antonio’s lives, but to little avail[iv]. It is unknown if the briefs were ever examined; all that is for certain is that the court threw out the petition and decided not to hear it. Additionally, Amnesty International published a report in 2010 concluding the manner in which the case was handled infringed upon the Cuban Five’s human rights[v].

The series of events organized in Washington D.C. to raise awareness of The Cuban Five culminated in a public meeting with distinguished speakers: José Ramon Cabañas (Chief of Cuban Interests Section in Washington D.C.), Yeidckol Polevnsky (former Vice President of the Mexican Senate), Piero Gleijeses (foreign policy professor at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University), and Stephen Kimber (Professor of Journalism at the University of King’s College in Halifax). The panel’s presence and words energized those who stand with Gerardo, Ramón, Fernando, Antonio, and René. In his brief speech, Mr. Cabañas lamented the fact that the lives of these men and their families have been negatively impacted forever because they got caught up in the toxic politics that have defined U.S.-Cuban relations for over half a century. In August 2013, Professor Kimber released a book entitled “What Lies Across the Water: The Real Story of the Cuban Five,” which objectively details the accounts that transpired and concludes the dearth of substantial evidence against The Five was overwhelming. At the public meeting, Kimber, and many others, expressed outraged at the injustice of the harsh sentences, particularly in the case of Gerardo, who was given two life sentences plus fifteen years.

The conservative, pro-embargo Cuban-American bloc in South Florida should not intimidate any politician or allow fellow Cuban-American from behaving ethically to usher in a time of peace and cooperation between the U.S. and Cuba and advocate for the immediate release of the Cuban Five. Tides are changing, however. There is a new generation of progressive Cuban-Americans who are opposed to the continued imprisonment of their Cuban brothers. The Obama administration should not be swayed by extremists in the U.S. Congress from hammering out a more rational policy towards Cuba. Nations in the hemisphere have a growing spirit of cooperation and mutual respect for Cuba and it is time the U.S. instituted policy that adheres to this international norm. A period of productive dialogue should begin by revisiting the case of the current Cuban Five prisoners (Gerardo, Ramón, and Antonio). The U.S. government is not saving face by ignoring this injustice for sixteen years. By not addressing the overwhelming international outcry, legislators and the President reinforce negative perceptions that Washington is morally bankrupt. The Obama administration has the ability to take a bold step in the right direction by acting now to free Gerardo, Ramón, and Antonio and begin the long overdue rapprochement with Cuba.

Juan Acosta, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs

[i]http://af.reuters.com/article/idAFTRE6BL3JQ20101222

[ii]http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-cuban-five-were-fighting-terrorism-why-did-we-put-them-in-jail/2013/10/04/37c556a6-1fca-11e3-b7d1-7153ad47b549_story.html

[iii]http://www.thecuban5.org/voices-of-support/united-nations/

[iv]http://www.cnn.com/2009/CRIME/01/30/scotus.cuban.five/

[v]http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/asset/AMR51/093/2010/en/9911673a-a171-49db-b757-581f2fbdfe11/amr510932010en.pdf

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Three Missing Afghan Soldiers Found On US-Canada Border

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Three Afghan National Army soldiers who did not return to a training exercise at a U.S. military base in Massachusetts were found trying to cross the Canadian border, local media reported on Monday.

The men were taken into custody at a border crossing near Niagara Falls, New York, WCVB-TV reported, citing an unidentified law enforcement source.

Military officials did not immediately respond to request for comment and the report could not be independently verified.

Authorities at Joint Base Cape Cod in the U.S. northeastern state of Massachusetts reported the three missing Saturday. They were last seen at a shopping mall in Hyannis, Massachusetts.

Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick said military officials are speculating the three Afghans may be trying to defect to the United States.

Massachusetts National Guard spokesman Lieutenant Colonel James Sahady said officials do not believe the soldiers pose a threat but are baffled about their disappearance.

“There is no threat right now, and we are just concerned on where they are and where did they go,” Sahady said. “And that is the good question right now. Did they go sightseeing or did they get lost, etc.? Or do they have other agendas that we do not know about at this time?”

200 soldiers involved

Sahady said the soldiers did not have access to weapons as part of the training exercise that involves about 200 soldiers from six countries, including 15 others from Afghanistan.

The United States has conducted the annual training sessions since 2004 as a way to promote better military coordination with other countries.

The three soldiers were identified as Major Jan Mohammad Arash, Captain Mohammad Nasir Askarzada and Captain Noorullah Aminyar.

Base authorities, state, and police were involved in the search for the missing soldiers on Sunday, Sahady said.

The week-long exercise is scheduled to end on Wednesday.

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Top FIFA Official Says 2022 Qatar World Cup Will Move Due To Heat

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A top FIFA official says the 2022 World Cup won’t be held in Qatar because of dangers faced by players and fans in scorching temperatures. The Gulf State, which has faced repeated allegations of corruption, says they want to move the event to winter.

The claims were made by Theo Zwanziger, who is a FIFA Executive Committee member. He is adamant that the present plan to stage world football’s biggest event in the summer is not a viable option.

“I personally think that in the end the 2022 World Cup will not take place in Qatar,” the German told Sport Bild on Monday.

“Medics say that they cannot accept responsibility with a World Cup taking place under these conditions,” the former head of the German football association added.

Qatar has repeatedly said that the problem of playing in summer, where temperatures can reach in excess of 50 degrees Celsius, can be overcome by introducing cooling technologies inside the stadiums.

“They may be able to cool the stadiums but a World Cup does not take place only there,” Zwanziger said.

“Fans from around the world will be coming and traveling in this heat and the first life-threatening case will trigger an investigation by a state prosecutor. That is not something that FIFA Exco members want to answer for.”

In May, FIFA President Sepp Blatter said it was a “mistake” to choose Qatar to host the 2022 World Cup.

“Yes, it was a mistake of course, but one makes lots of mistakes in life,” said Blatter, Fifa’s president, in an interview with the Swiss broadcaster RTS. “The technical report into Qatar said clearly it was too hot but the executive committee – with a large majority – decided all the same to play it in Qatar.”

The FIFA supremo, who has been in charge of world football’s governing body since 1998 and is seeking a fifth term in charge of the organization says it was now “probable” that it would be played in the winter rather than the summer due to the heat.

However, this plan has received a lukewarm response from the top European leagues, who are worried the move would hurt them financially; it would clash with domestic seasons around the continent.

“We need more information before accepting the fact that the calendar should be disrupted,” said European Clubs Association vice chairman Umberto Gandini. “We would not be part of something which is not credible.”

FIFA has offered two options: a November-December tournament, which would shut down top European leagues for two months. The other was January-February, though Blatter previously assured IOC President Thomas Bach that the World Cup will not clash with the 2022 Winter Olympics, likely in February.

“There’s obviously some resistance to move to break away from tradition — that’s normal, that’s natural but a lot of people believe this is the World Cup and belongs to the world,” Qatar organizing committee communications director Nasser Al-Khater said. “This could be the first time a World Cup is moved in terms of timings and maybe this becomes the norm for the future and becomes a template that we can move.”

Corruption rampant

In June, the British newspaper The Sunday Times published new allegations that disgraced former FIFA executive committee member, Mohamed Bin Hammam, used his wealth and contacts to buy support for Qatar’s bid to host the World Cup, which they were awarded in Zurich in December 2010.

The paper claimed that Bin Hammam made payments totaling $5 million to senior football officials to seal support for Qatar. The Qatari was also accused of using $1.7million to secure key Asian votes.

This led to UEFA president, Michel Platini, to say that FIFA should hold a new vote if the allegations of corruption against the Gulf state were proved to be correct. Platini had originally voted for Qatar to be given the right to host the tournament.

Aside from the numerous corruption scandals, the oil rich nation has also been accused of treating thousands of migrant laborers, who are building the necessary infrastructure, like slaves.

A report by AFP in February stated that at least 237 Indian migrants lost their lives in Qatar in 2012 and another 218 in 2013 up to December 5, citing figures received via a Right to Information request filed at the Indian embassy in Qatar.

On average, 20 Indian migrants die every month in Qatar. August last year was the most deadly month on record, with 27 fatalities being reported.

Meanwhile, 400 Nepalese workers have died at building sites since construction for the World Cup 2022 got underway in 2010, the Guardian reported. The newspaper did not state when the deaths occurred, but they were backed up by the Pravasi Nepali Co-ordination Committee, a respected human rights organization, which used official sources from Doha.

There were 500,000 Indians estimated to be in Qatar at the end of 2012 – roughly 26 percent of Qatar’s population. Nepalese workers comprise approximately 20 percent of Qatar’s migrant workforce and 16 percent of the total population. The total death toll stemming from the country’s World Cup scramble could in fact be higher, as other migrant groups are also present in the country.

Qatar uses the Kafala system to govern its domestic migrant workers. The system requires that foreign workers be sponsored by an employer who is responsible for their visa and legal status. Human Rights groups have found evidence that the Kafala system is being manipulated, with employers denying migrants’ wages and refusing to grant them an exit visa to leave the country.

“Professional and poor workers alike tell the same stories; they came to Qatar with optimism and good will, only to face despair when their employer decides they are disposable and refuses to pay wages, sacked them without benefits and or refused to sign their exit permit,” said Sharan Burrow, General Secretary of the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC).

Qatar’s government seems as though it is finally addressing the problems and has now banned midday outdoor work in the summer heat, specifically between 11:30 am and 3:00 pm, from mid-June until the end of August, the hottest months.

The new measures also require companies to set up bank accounts for foreign workers and pay wages electronically within seven days of the due date, or otherwise face sanctions. However, the government did not specify what the penalty would be.

Qatar lawmakers have also agreed to launch an electronic complaint system and to build housing to accommodate up to 150,000 workers, Reuters reports.

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Iran’s Rohani Looks Forward To ‘Opportunity’ Of UN Visit

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Iran’s President Hassan Rohani appeared at a press conference before leaving for New York to attend the United Nations’ General Assembly, saying the trip is “an opportunity to represent the view of the people of Iran to the leaders and representatives of other countries.”

The General Assembly will convene on Wednesday September 24 with representatives from 192 countries.

Reaching a final agreement in the nuclear negotiations with 5+1 is a top priority of the Iranian delegation, and the president referred to the ongoing talks in New York with the 5+1 representatives.

Rohani said that any request for transparency in the framework of the regulations and mutual respect from the 5+1 is acceptable to Iran.

President Rohani implicitly referred to the international efforts to confront the ISIS threat, saying that if countries aim to use terrorism as an excuse to solidify their presence in the region, they are mistaken. “They must take serious lessons from their past and take a firm decision to combat terrorism,” the Iranian president said.

This will be Rohani’s second trip to New York to attend the UN General Assembly. Last year he arrived in New York a little over a month after he was elected president, and his telephone conversation with the U.S. president, in the context of the Iranian Supreme Leader’s recommendation to show “heroic flexibility”, became a hot topic of speculation about possible changes in Iranian-U.S. relations.

The Iranian nuclear negotiators have held direct talks with a number of U.S. representatives in the past year, but language used by the Iranian establishment and conservative factions remains highly critical of the possibility of direct relations with the United States.

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Mexico: New Spill In Sonora Contaminates Rivers

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Authorities issued a new alert of a toxic spill in the Sonora River basin from the Buena Vista del Cobre copper mine operated by Grupo Mexico in the northern State of Sonora.

Carlos Arias, civil protection director, urged some 25,000 residents of the area to avoid using the water after the spill affected the tributaries that drain into the Bacanuchi River. A flyover of the area shows an abnormal orange stain, he added.

The mining company said in a statement that a storm water overflow after excessive rains from Hurricane Odile caused toxic water from the Buenavista copper mine to leak into some creeks and streams. Grupo Mexico operates the Buenavista mine in Cananea, Sonora, producing 200,000 tons of copper a year.

Mexican environmental authorities last month accused the Grupo Mexico of lying on a sulphuric acid spill into the Sonora River, minimizing it and failing to take measures. Also in that case, the company attributed it to bad weather, while experts say it was the result of a negligent inspection due also to structural defects at the mine.

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Nigeria: Jonathan To Run In Presidential Elections

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Prominent members of Nigeria’s ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) unanimously endorsed incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, in office since 1999, to be the group’s candidate in February’s presidential election.

According to the Vanguard, the PDP also called on members to present no alternative candidates. A move slammed as undemocratic by the son of the former prime minister, Abdul-Jhalil Tafawa-Balewa, who said he will run in the presidential election on the platform of the PDP.

In the election Jonathan will mainly face the All Progressive Congress (APC), the new opposition that has not presented a candidate yet.

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China’s Military: What’s New? And What’s Next? – Analysis

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By June Teufel Dreyer

As the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) enters 2015, it can take pride in several years of impressive accomplishments. These span the spectrum of combat capabilities, ranging from weapons upgrades, organizational changes, more sophisticated training exercises, and leadership.

Upgraded Weaponry

In terms of weapons, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) launched the country’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, in 2013. In the following year, the Liaoning deployed out of territory for the first time. As if marking its territory, the carrier circumnavigated the Japanese archipelago and the Taiwan Strait before docking at Sanya, home of the nuclear submarine base of PLAN’s South Sea Fleet. The navy has also recently deployed Jin-class ballistic missile nuclear submarines equipped with missiles whose estimated range is 7,400 kilometers, hence providing China with its first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent. The nuclear-powered attack submarine force has also expanded. The Chinese air force (PLAAF), the largest in Asia, has test-flown a stealthy fighter, the J-20, as well as a second next-generation fighter prototype that is similar in size to the American air force’s F-35. The Second Artillery Force, PLASAF, which is the PLA’s strategic missile arm, improved its already impressive ballistic missile capabilities. In August 2014, China’s Global Times confirmed the existence of a new ICBM, the DF-41, which is capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads as far as the United States.[1] A hypersonic missile has been tested. Designed to be launched from an ICBM, glides and maneuvers at speeds from five to ten times the speed of sound from near space to its targets, which are presumably U.S. missile defenses.[2]  The Chinese success has been all the more striking in view of setbacks in American efforts to develop hypersonic weapons. An August 2014 U.S. test launch failed four seconds after take-off from its Alaskan base.[3]  Chinese generals continue to issue incendiary statements via social media, and even occasionally in official media,[4] though these may be intended more for domestic propaganda purposes than as statements of actual intent.

The PLA’s cyberspying is sophisticated and worrisome to countries it targets. According to a detailed report issued by the private security investigation firm Mandiant, much of this is orchestrated by the PLA’s cyberespionage arm, Unit 61398.  Several PLA members have been indicted for allegedly stealing from American companies in the nuclear power, steel, and solar industries.[5] In September 2014, the Senate Armed Forces Committee released a heavily redacted report detailing the Chinese military’s cyber penetration of U.S. transportation command contractors. The report warned that, should the United States find itself in armed conflict, attacks based on the information gleaned from cyberspying are expected to include denial of service, corruption of data and supply chains, sabotage activities by infiltrated traitors, and both kinetic and non-kinetic attacks at all levels from underwater to space. U.S. guns, missiles and bombs might not fire, or could be directed against American troops.  Resupply, including food, water, ammunition, and fuel might not arrive when or where needed.[6]

Organizational Reforms

Organizationally, soon after assuming the titles of president, party general secretary, and chair of the central military commission (CMC), Xi Jinping announced his intention to reorganize the military. This initiative included the establishment of five leading small groups for all aspects of military work. Among salient questions being addressed were how to right-size the PLA and how to eliminate military corruption. With regard to the former, a transition from military regional control to joint operations that has been suggested could result in significant reduction of redundancy in personnel at the top levels of the country’s seven military regions.

Additionally, in March 2013, four of the country’s five maritime enforcement agencies were merged into the China Coast Guard under the aegis of the State Oceanic Administration, in order to eliminate overlap in command and functions. In November of the same year, Beijing announced that it intended to establish the country’s first National Security Commission (NSC) to coordinate security policy formation and provide strong central leadership. According to the official Renmin Ribao,

…The current leading groups and their offices for foreign affairs, national security, and anti-terror work under the Party Central Committee are characterized by their non-official and provisional nature. It is difficult for them to trace, analyze, and coordinate routine affairs as the core organs for state security affairs. Also, they lack sufficient manpower and resources to respond to sudden contingencies and to formulate, coordinate, and supervise the implementation of national security strategies of comprehensive nature.[7]

In what was seen as a move to further consolidate his power, Xi Jinping was named head of the NSC. There have been persistent rumors that the Chinese Communist Party’s control over the military has eroded, despite regular denials that this is the case.[8]  These rumors received a degree of credence in 2007 when the Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied knowledge of the PLA’s destroying a satellite in outer space after news thereof had appeared in a respected American defense magazine and been confirmed by the U.S. Department of Defense.[9] A second instance occurred four years later, when the J-20 was tested during U.S. Secretary of State Robert Gates’ visit.  Responding to Gates’ query about what appeared to be a calculated insult, then-president Hu Jintao replied that he had had no prior knowledge of the test.[10]  Although Xi Jinping has never been in active-duty service, he has better connections with the military than his predecessor and is regarded as more likely to be able to tighten control on the basis of these ties.

In addition to being named head of the NSC, another reform that seems aimed at increasing Xi’s power as well as enabling the better use of PLA resources, has been the campaign against military corruption.  Part of a campaign against corruption in all spheres, it has ensnared several high-ranking military officers in addition to a large number of lesser known figures.  Among the most notable of the former was Politburo member and CMC vice-chair General Xu Caihou, who was accused of selling military ranks, an illegal but relatively common practice that netted General Xu many millions of dollars.[11] Deputy head of the PLA’s General Logistics Department Lieutenant General Gu Junshan has been accused of profiting from the purchase and sale of military real estate. Four truckloads of goods, including a boat and a statue of Mao Zedong, were confiscated from his mansion.[12] General Guo Boxiong, another former CMC deputy chair who was under investigation, reportedly fled to evade arrest but was detained at customs.  39 Chinese netizens were arrested for spreading rumors that included photographs purporting to show the general dressed as a woman and wearing a wig.[13] Under Chinese law, spreading rumors is a crime whether or not the rumors are true.

Assertive Behavior

Almost simultaneously with the establishment of the NSC, Beijing proclaimed the creation of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) that encompasses areas contested with Japan and South Korea.  Still more worrisome was the announcement that other ADIZ might follow. The intent of these organizational changes was to tighten control over the waters of the East China Sea and South China Sea, which the PRC contests with several other countries. An oil-drilling rig was set up in waters claimed by Vietnam, and Chinese naval vessels have blocked the Philippines from resupplying a ship Manila had grounded on a South China Sea shoal as a marker of its sovereignty. In May 2014, construction began on five contested reefs and shoals to create new islands that would allow the PRC to claim it has an exclusive economic zone of 200 nautical miles around each, as well as to allow the installation of surveillance equipment, including radars.[14]  Chinese fishing boats regularly appear in the East China Sea waters around the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands, which are under Japanese jurisdiction but are claimed by China.

Japanese sources have stated that the Chinese navy is sending increasing numbers of civilian vessels, including members of maritime militias, into disputed waters and paying them rewards. Maritime militiamen in civilian ships reportedly also appeared around the oil rig in disputed South China Sea waters, complicating the efforts of Vietnamese coast guard ships to approach the area.[15]  American reconnaissance planes are regularly harassed, the latest incident occurring in mid-August when a Chinese jet flew dangerously close to a P-8 Poseidon in international waters. Beijing replied to Washington’s protest by saying that the practice would continue as long as the U.S. flights did.[16]  On the eve of Xi Jinping’s visit to New Delhi, the first by a Chinese president in eight years, a thousand PLA soldiers crossed the line of actual control (LAC) in a border area disputed by the two countries. They were accompanied by heavy construction equipment and workers who stated they had received orders to build a road that would intrude five kilometers into the LAC.[17] The aim would seem to be to move the LAC forward, to the disadvantage of India.  In Africa, China has been accused of using a United Nations Peacekeeping Operation as a cover for sending its troops, in the form of a 700-man UN PKO force, to protect its oil workers and investments in South Sudan.[18]

The intent here may be what Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov has called non-linear warfare. Also sometimes referred to as hybrid warfare, it involves a range of overt and covert military, paramilitary, and civilian measures in a carefully integrated design,  which in this case would be consolidation of the PRC’s territorial claims in areas it contests with its neighbors as well as the protection of assets in areas it does not contest.

Training Exercises

In terms of training, recent exercises have built incrementally toward the goal of achieving full territory operational capabilities, meaning the ability of troops to rapidly maneuver over long distances outside of their regional boundaries while confronting an enemy force. In 2013 these cross-region exercises included maritime force projection and amphibious landings. Exercises also included a long-distance aerial attack.  Most recently, “Stride-14” was billed as the first event in a four-year plan to evaluate all ground force combined arms brigades and specialized single-arm brigades. The precise use of quantitative data for evaluation was to be used to determine future reorganizations. According to official media, Stride-2014 had significantly raised the bar in training standards.[19]

THE ROAD AHEAD

2015 will build on these accomplishments. The Liaoning is expected to add an operational air wing, and a second aircraft carrier, the first to be produced by China, is reportedly under construction. A deep-sea base at Qingdao, home of the North Sea Fleet, is being constructed to serve as home port for PLAN’s manned deep-sea submersible, the Jiaolong. Newer submarines are expected to incorporate better quieting technologies as well as torpedoes and anti-ship cruise missiles. Research is being conducted on a hypersonic, scramjet-powered vehicle that can either take off independently or be launched from a bomber. Progress is to continue on efforts to makes the PLA leaner and hence putatively more combat-effective, and generous resources are to be allocated to this endeavor.

Plans do not always come to fruition and obstacles must be overcome. It can be seen from the explanations given for the founding of the National Security Commission and the consolidation of the various maritime patrol units that the central government perceives serious problems of command, control, and coordination.  Efforts to tighten control and streamline will inevitably meet resistance from entrenched interests. Bureaucracies that have traditionally exercised control within a certain sphere do not take kindly to having their prerogatives circumscribed and are adept at finding blocking strategies. With specific regard to China, this is epitomized in the saying “you [i.e. the central government] have a policy; I have a counterpolicy.”

There are hints of resistance to the small groups, with the head of one reporting, for example, that progress in the conduct of two surveys of military infrastructure and real estate had been “uneven,” as well as a comment from Xi Jinping that seems to indicate that local levels are resisting the leading group’s efforts: “No unit can speak objectively or discuss the conclusions.”[20]  Several suicides and unexplained deaths that appear to be suicides have been reported, the latest being that Rear Admiral Jiang Zhonghua of the South Sea Fleet’s armament department had fallen to his death from a Zhejiang hotel.[21] What affect the purges will have on military morale and, more broadly, on Xi’s relations with the military, is not known. Nor is it a foregone conclusion that military corruption will markedly decrease.   Many Chinese are cynical.  Believing that most people in high positions, whether in the military, party, government, or commercial spheres, are corrupt, they tend to see those charged as no more guilty than those who have not been charged, but rather as collateral road kill in a high-level political power struggle.

In any case, there are recent indications that the impact of the anti-corruption campaign has gone too far and may be called off or at least severely curtailed. In the words of Hubei Party Secretary Li Hongzhong, the campaign has caused cadres to become “panicked and insecure, making being an official even more difficult that it already was” while others believe that “although the current anticorruption wind is ferocious, it is really only a gust—that the campaign won’t have a lasting impact, because there’s too much focus on punishing corruption and not early enough on building a better government.”[22]

Another area in which hints that plans for better centralization have not come to fruition is in maritime surveillance. In order to enlist the help of coastal provinces in maritime surveillance, the Beijing government has had to provide more modern, seaworthy ships that can better withstand the waters further offshore, and which the provinces were not eager to bear the financial costs of. These enhancements to provincial-level units undermine the underlying premise for the 2013 centralization reform. Moreover, since different provinces have different rules and operating procedures, a delicate and difficult task of persuading local units to implement what is referred to as “guidance” from above will be required before standardization can be achieved.[23] While outright resistance is unlikely, negotiation and, failing that, feigned compliance are effective ways to modify or even vitiate the aims of any or all of these reform plans.

Nor do obstacles end with the human element. Bringing the Liaoning and its future sister ships to the level of Western carriers will require several years and sustained attention.  Reportedly, two PLA pilots have already died while training on jets slated to operate from the Liaoning.[24] The Liaoning has a ski jump rather than a catapult launch, the latter being needed for heavier fighters. Military expert Richard Fisher predicts that future carriers will be larger and include these. According to naval analyst James Bussert, the Liaoning will also need to add shore-based maritime patrol aircraft such as the TU-154 anti-submarine planes and Shaanxi Y-8 airborne early warning and control aircraft as well, since they are within range of most carrier operation areas and add capabilities the Liaoning’s aircraft do not have, including longer loiter time and range as well as several sensors, communications equipment, and weapons.[25] The carrier’s logistics capability is limited due to lack of onboard delivery equipment such as provided by the U.S. navy’s C-2 Greyhound.[26]

The Chinese military is well aware of the deficiencies in its combat capabilities, and efforts to address them will continue.  In the absence of some major, and highly unlikely, economic catastrophe, the double-digit increases that have characterized the defense budget since 1989 will go on, providing adequate funding for improvement and a continuation of the rapid progress of the past two decades. Provocative behavior in the East and South China seas and on the border with India is likely to continue.

These present great risks for both China and its neighbors.  Japanese sources note that the young militiamen who are encouraged to enter the waters around the Senkaku-Diaoyu are inexperienced in weapons handling and steeped in anti-Japanese propaganda; hence they may be tempted to commit acts of foolish bravado.[27] Harassing U.S. reconnaissance planes in international waters and international flights that challenge China’s contested ADIZ may have more severe consequences than the April 2001 incident that resulted in the death of a Chinese pilot and the crash landing of the American plane.  Moreover, the most sophisticated training exercises cannot compensate for lack of actual combat experience. Officers, who have purchased their commissions through bribery, doubtless because they provide the holders with possibilities for financial gain, may not prove the most competent or motivated of commanders.  In sum, the PLA faces 2015 as a work in progress with impressive achievements but structural difficulties that may constrain the pace of future improvements. The future, as always, is uncertain.

About the author:
June Teufel Dreyer is a Senior Fellow in FPRI’s Asia Program as well as a member of the Orbis Board of Editors. She is Professor of Political Science at the University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida. Her most recent book is China’s Political System: Modernization and Tradition, ninth edition (Pearson, 2014). Her current project is a book on Sino-Japanese relations, under contract to Oxford University Press.

Source:
This article was published at FPRI.

[1] Agence France Presse, August 1, 2014.

[2] Bill Gertz, Washington Free Beacon, January 13, 2014.

[3] http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140825/DEFREG02/308250004/US-Army-s…

[4] http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304211804577500521756902802 Wall Street Journal July 1, 2012.

[5] Serdar Yegulalp, Infoworld Tech Watch, May 19, 2014. http://www.infoworld.com/article/2608241/cyber-crimeu-s–charges-

[6] Available at http://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/SASC_Cyberreport_091714.pdf

[7] Renmin Ribao (overseas edition), November 13, 2013.

[8] For example, then-deputy chief of the PLA’s general staff General Xiong Guangkai told visiting Japanese politician Ozawa Ichirō “People way that the PLA are hawks and the civilian leadership are doves, but the PLA just obeys the government’s orders.”   Xinhua, May 3, 1996.

[9] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1539948/Chinese-missile-destroys-satellite-in-space.html. January 19, 2007.

[10] http://online.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748704428004576075042571461586. January 12, 2011.

[11] New York Times, July 1, 2014. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/01/world/asia/china-moves-against-one-of-…

[12] http://english.caixin.com/2014-01-16/100630028.html

[13] http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/816873-netizens-arrested-for-spreading-rumors-of-runaway-chinese-general/  July 28, 2014.

[14] http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/17/world/asia/spratly-archipelago-china-trying-to-bolster-its-claims-plants-islands-in-disputed-waters.html?_r=0  New York Times, May 18, 2014.

[15] http://the-japan-news.con/news/article/0001561024, September 12, 2014,

[16] http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/9/13/us-usa-china-surveillance-idUSKBN0H72KN20140913 Reuters,  September 13, 2014,

[17] http://www.dailyexcelsior.com Daily Excelsior (Jammu), September 19, 2014.

[18] https://ca.finance.yaoo.com/news/china-using-un-cover-sending-190109147.html Reuters, September 17, 2014.

[19] Xinhua, August 7, 2014.

[20] Cited by James Mulvenon, “Groupthink? PLA Leading Small Groups and the Prospect for Real Reform and Change in the Chinese Military,”  China Leadership Monitor, September 2014, p. 2.

[21] Ming Pao, September 5, 2014.  The paper reported that the death had occurred on September 2.

[22] http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/09/19/is-it-just-a-matter-of-time-before-chinas-last-decent-housing-market-cracks-too/?mod=WSJBlog&mod=chinablog  September 19, 2011.

[23] Ryan Martinson, “Power to the Provinces: The Devolution of China’s Maritime Rights Protection,” China Brief, Vol. 14, Issue 17, September 10, 2014.

[24] Official Chinese sources deny these reports.  Xinhua, September 8, 2014.

[25] Cited in http://www.defensenews.com/apps/pbsc.dll/afticle?AID=2104309070015, September 7, 2014.

[26] According to data supplied by Northrop Grumman, the C-2 can deliver high priority needed equipment such as jet engines up to 10,000 pounds within a few hours, and can also carry passengers. It is equipped with litters for medical evacuation. http://www.northropgrumman.com/Capabilities/C2AGreyhound/Pages/default.aspx

[27] http://the-japan-news.con/news/article/0001561024, September 12, 2014

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Algeria Says Top Militant With Links To Al Qaeda Killed

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Algeria’s Defense Ministry says army forces have ambushed and killed a top militant with links to al Qaeda, the Associated Press reported.

The ministry said Monday, Sept 22, army forces relied on local information to ambush a “leading terrorist responsible for many crimes” in a late night operation on Sunday. The militant, from the group al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, was killed in the mountainous Kabylie region, some 50 miles from the capital, Algiers.

Algeria has been fighting the group since the 1990s, though they are now isolated in a few mountainous regions.

Experts say locals in these regions have increasingly cooperated with government efforts to root out the last vestiges of the group.

Local media named the militant as Mahmoudi, also known by his nickname “Le Mancho,” and said he has been fighting since the 1990s.

The post Algeria Says Top Militant With Links To Al Qaeda Killed appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Kyrgyzstan Turns Face To Moscow

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By Timur Toktonaliev

Experts in Kyrgyzstan are warning that the authorities should not let imminent accession to the Moscow-led Customs Union overshadow relations with its neighbours, despite its sometimes difficult relationships with them.

Border disputes have upset ties between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, while energy supplies from Uzbekistan have been disrupted by a row over the Tajiks’ construction of a giant dam.

Kyrgyz president Almazbek Atambaev has made clear he believes that joining Belarus, Kazakstan and Russia in the Customs Union will reduce his country’s dependence on its neighbours. But analysts say that however frustrated the Kyrgyz government might be with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, it would be short-sighted to try to use Customs Union to turn away from them.

Kyrgyzstan’s accession to the trade bloc now appears to be close. Andrei Belyaninov, the head of the Russian customs service, travelled to Kyrgyzstan to meet Prime Minister Joomart Otorbaev on September 10. As well as the Customs Union, they discussed the implementation of energy projects led by Russian energy giant Gazprom, which now owns the former state gas company Kyrgyzgaz.

Belyaninov’s trip followed a Moscow summit between Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and his Kyrgyz counterpart Erlan Abdyldaev on 4 September, during which they signed a programme of cooperation for the next year.

At a press conference after the meeting, Lavrov said the process of Kyrgyz accession was now “being speeded up”.

The accelerated pace has been made possible by Moscow agreeing to a financial assistance package, a decision made at a Customs Union summit in the Kazak capital Astana on May 29. The bloc’s existing members also formalised the establishment of the new Eurasian Economic Union that will should take them to a new level of integration. (See Kyrgyzstan Gets Soft Terms for Customs Union Entry on this.)

The Russian government’s move was no doubt driven by its worsening relations with the West and its attempts to shore up support among former Soviet republics.

Meanwhile, Atambaev has made clear he sees “no alternative” to accession.

He used an Independence Day speech on August 31 to emphasise the benefits of joining the union, while at the same time expressing frustration with the Kyrgyzstan’s neighbours.

Atambaev vowed that Kyrgyzstan would complete the giant Kambarata hydroelectric scheme to which Uzbekistan – reliant on the Amu Darya river downstream of the dam – objects because it fears the water flow will be restricted. (See Russia Factor Shifts Kyrgyz-Uzbek Power Balance on relations between the two states.)

Bishkek’s refusal to halt construction of the dam was seen as the reason for Tashkent’s decision to cut off gas suppliers to Kyrgyzstan’s southern provinces this spring.

Atambaev also referred to the construction of a road to bypass a Tajik enclave in southern Kyrgyzstan, an issue which has strained relations with Tajikistan. For the last two years, the border between the two countries has been shut by repeated skirmishes over the issue. This year, there have been three major incidents, with both sides suffering casualties. (The issues are examined in Communities Struggle to Overcome Kyrgyz-Tajik Border Tensions.)

“Year after year, officials from this country used to beg neighbours to supply gas, to open the highway… or railway for our freight to transit,” Atambaev said, arguing that Russian investment would allow Kyrgyzstan to break out.

By contrast, he noted, Russia and Kazakstan did not threaten Kyrgyzstan’s energy supplies, borders or territorial integrity.

The president urged the Kyrgyz parliament to ratify the membership document and expressed hope that the country could join by next January.

Chinara Esengulova, deputy director of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, said Atambaev’s speech indicated a clear strategic turn towards Russia and Kazakstan.

“We’ve recently seen the traditionally good relationship between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan deteriorating,” she noted, adding that maintaining good relations with these neighbours was vital to the national interest.

Kyrgyzstan’s location, sharing borders with four countries, has made it attractive to regional players such as Russia and China, a major Central Asian investor and trading partner.

Esengulova emphasised that Russia, China and the United States were not interested in dealing with Kyrgyzstan in isolation.

“Russia needs a stable Central Asia where it will feel at ease and able to work with everyone,” she said, adding that this was why Moscow wanted to see Kyrgyzstan on good terms with its neighbours.

Emil Juraev, a politics lecturer at the American University in Bishkek, said it was important for Kyrgyzstan not to make the mistake of overplaying the leverage it would gain by entering the Moscow-dominated trade bloc.

He said Bishkek appeared to be flaunting its closer ties with Moscow to make political statements about its neighbours, as if implying that it had Russia’s backing.

“This is starting to cast a shadow on ties with Tashkent and Dushanbe, particularly with the former,” Juraev said.

The problem, he said, was that Moscow would only throw its weight behind Bishkek when it suited its own interests. Russia was unlikely to support Kyrgyzstan at the cost of its relationships with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

“Unfortunately, our government hasn’t recently been showing that it understand Kyrgyzstan needs to build relationships with its own neighbours on his own terms,” he concluded.

Bishkek-based analyst Sheradil Baktygulov agreed that accession to the Customs Union would not automatically translate into a guarantee of political support.

“The members themselves emphasise that it is first and foremost an economic union,” Baktygulov said. “The Kyrgyz authorities won’t be able to play on their ties with Moscow because Moscow’s [links] with Dushanbe are as close as its relations with Bishkek.”

Uzbekistan, for its part, is wary of regional blocs dominated by Russia, whether political, economic or security-related, Juraev said.

“It reacts jealously to the presence of such unions in its vicinity. This is Uzbekistan’s general approach to its foreign policy,” he added. Rhetoric such as Atambaev used in his recent speech might only serve to antagonise Tashkent.

As a Customs Union member, Kyrgyzstan will be expected to impose higher import tariffs on non-member. In reality, though, experts doubt the impact will be felt immediately.

Baktygulov said frontiers were ill-defined and porous, with officials on all sides complicit in smuggling goods.

“Even now, most trade in border areas is based around smuggling, so until the border is tightened up, none of the trade barriers will work,” he said.

The authorities have tried to downplay this issue, with Iskenderbek Mambetaliev, first deputy head of the Kyrgyz border service, telling media on September13 that border control issues would have no effect on Kyrgyzstan’s accession.

Other experts note that in any case, Kyrgyzstan’s neighbours are not among its top five trading partners. According to last year’s official figures, Uzbekistan lagged behind Turkey in sixth place and Tajikistan was placed even lower.

However, Juraev said, trade with Tajikistan might improve as it has expressed an interest in joining the Customs Union.

“It will most probably get preferential treatment for trade with Custom Union members. As for Uzbekistan, an increase in trade is unlikely…. We have limited economic ties,” he added.

Timur Toktonaliev is an IWPR contributor in Kyrgyzstan. This article was published at IWPR’s RCA Issue 743.

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China, Russia Mull Mongolia Gas Route Amid Ukraine Crisis – Analysis

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By Michael Lelyveld

The conflict in Ukraine has driven Russia and China to consider energy options that appeared far-fetched only a few months ago.

Russia’s rift with the European Union has raised risks for Moscow in its main energy export market, spurring efforts to forge closer ties with China as an alternate revenue source.

The result is a push for pipeline projects that have languished for years.

Just four months after signing a U.S. $400-billion (2.4- trillion yuan) deal to supply gas to China through a 4,000- kilometer (2,485-mile) East Siberian pipeline, Russia is promoting plans for a second line from the west that officials say could be agreed upon soon.

At a ceremony marking the start of the eastern pipeline project in the Russian city of Yakutia on Sept. 1, President Vladimir Putin and Alexei Miller, CEO of state-owned Gazprom, voiced their readiness to develop the western route to Xinjiang, known as the Altai pipeline.

“If Gazprom works closely with CNPC (China National Petroleum Corp.)–and Gazprom is ready to do this–then we will be able to sign a contract during the meeting between our heads of state in the month of November,” Miller said, according to Interfax.

Putin said the western project could be carried out “even more quickly” than the one in the east, while Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli noted that the route could tap more gas reserves from West Siberian fields.

Russia already faces a formidable task to build the eastern line, known as the Power of Siberia, by 2019. The estimated cost for construction on Russian territory is U.S. $21 billion (128 billion yuan).

Western pipeline

Since 2006, Russia has tried repeatedly to persuade China that the western route should come first, since East Siberian resources have yet to be developed.

China has resisted until now because its major markets are in the east, while Xinjiang is already well-supplied with import pipelines from Central Asia and its own gas.

But the Ukraine crisis and China’s gas needs may have changed the calculations, giving the western route more appeal.

The threat of increasing sanctions has motivated Russia to renew its bid for a western pipeline deal as a source of financing from China.

China may also be showing more interest because the National Energy Administration (NEA) recently cut its forecast of gas production from shale formations in 2020 by more than half, making it harder to reach supply targets.

Under previous agreements, the eastern line would deliver 38 billion cubic meters (1.3 trillion cubic feet) of gas to China annually, while the western route would carry 30 billion cubic meters (1 trillion cubic feet) per year.

Last week at a meeting with Putin in Moscow, Miller raised the prospect of supplying higher volumes on the western route, saying that “the possibility of sending 60 billion-100 billion cubic meters (2.1trillion-3.5 trillion cubic feet) of gas is being considered,” Interfax reported.

Crossing Mongolia

China and Russia are also considering a shift in the western route to cross Mongolia, which could overcome a major problem with the Altai plan.

Russia’s Altai region offers only a narrow corridor on China’s border of some 50 kilometers (31 miles) at high altitudes of the Ukok Plateau, an area designated by UNESCO as a World Heritage Site and conservation area.

Moscow has never been clear about how to address the limits on construction there.

In recent weeks, both Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have visited Ulan Bator to meet with Mongolian President Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj. Xi’s visit to Mongolia was the first by a Chinese president in 11 years.

In a joint declaration on Aug. 21, China supported Mongolia’s call for a trilateral meeting with Russia, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

The first such meeting, which could be a prelude to a pipeline deal, took place on Sept. 11 at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Dushanbe, capital of Tajikistan.

During a press conference with Putin on Sept. 3, Elbegdorj promoted “the advantages of building a gas pipeline across our country’s territory,” citing factors including “security, convenient short route and steppe conditions,” Interfax said.

While the Ukraine crisis appears to have pushed the issue to the fore, the Mongolia route has been under discussion since last fall, Russian Natural Resources Minister Sergei Donskoi said.

Mongolia is likely to be in competition with Kazakhstan, which has also offered its territory as an alternative to the Altai route, although the country already carries three strands of China’s Central Asia Gas Pipeline (CAGP) system from Turkmenistan.

With either choice, Russia and China would have to weigh the risks of an additional border crossing, a problem that is already on Moscow’s mind because of its troubled history of gas transit to Europe through Ukraine.

“A mediator in transit creates additional problems,” said senior analyst Alexander Kornilov at Russia’s Alfa-Bank, cited by the Kremlin’s RIA Novosti news service. “In any case, I would warn against additional mediators,” he said.

From Beijing’s standpoint, a Mongolia line may also raise trust issues, in part because of history dating back to the Mongol invasion of China and dynasties starting in the 13th century. In the modern era, Mongolia gained independence from China in 1911.

In recent years, Mongolia has leaned toward Russia, relying on imports of Russian fuel, although over half of its foreign trade is with China, reaching $6 billion last year, according to Xinhua. Trade with Russia amounted to $1.6 billion, Germany’s Deutsche Welle said.

Mongolian attitudes toward China and its drive for resources are variously described as “wary” or distrustful.

A summary of bilateral relations by the official English-language China Daily in 2010 described ties as “normalized” after a period of “ups and downs.”

During his visit, Xi sought to open a new chapter in relations, offering financing and access to Chinese ports for the landlocked country, which is facing a slowdown in investment and economic growth.

“Welcome aboard China’s train of development!” Xi told Mongolian lawmakers.

Problems remain

But prospects for a pipeline may remain problematic.

Russia last shipped small volumes of crude oil to China through Mongolia over a secondary rail route in 2007 after lengthy tariff negotiations, only to find China reluctant to rely on the transited supplies.

Mikkal Herberg, energy security research director for the Seattle-based National Bureau of Asian Research, said China’s security concerns with cross-border transit seem to have eased since then because the country has developed multiple import sources and routes.

“From the Chinese perspective, they’re feeling much more secure about the diversification of their gas pipeline routes and supplies, so it may mean that they might feel more comfortable about a Mongolian line,” Herberg said.

Herberg noted that one of Beijing’s biggest concerns with Russia’s push for the western line first was that it would have allowed Gazprom to play demand in Europe against China to drive up gas prices, since both would be fed by the same resource base.

Now that China has a commitment for an eastern line from separate resources in Siberia, the threat of competition for supplies on the western route is less of a worry, he said.

Herberg argued that Putin has made major miscalculations in the Ukraine conflict, underestimating the cost of western sanctions to Russia’s economy and its ability to develop energy resources in exchange for small or short-term gains.

“I call this picking up nickels in front of the steam roller,” he said.

As sanctions curb western financing, Moscow has become increasingly reliant on deals with China after years of restricting its investment in the Russian energy sector.

On Sept. 1, Putin stunned observers by publicly offering China a stake in state-owned Rosneft’s Vankor oilfield, long considered the jewel in the company’s crown and a main source of high-quality crude.

“They’re putting themselves in the position where they have to sell the family silver,” said Herberg.

“They’ve thrown themselves into the arms of the Chinese and the tender mercies of the Chinese,” he said.

The post China, Russia Mull Mongolia Gas Route Amid Ukraine Crisis – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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