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Deconstructing “Tokyo Declaration” 2014: Takeaways From Indian Prime Minister’s Japan Visit – Analysis

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By Dr. Shamshad A. Khan*

During Indian Prime Minister Narenda Modi‟s five-day Japan visit, which concluded on September 3, 2014, India and Japan have announced various measures to take the bilateral relationship to a new height. They have identified areas of cooperation, especially in the economic realm, where they can complement each other. While Japan has announced investment of US$ 35 billion in India over the next five years, India has promised rolling of “red carpet” for Japanese investors. Japan wants to produce high-tech products to sustain its export-oriented economic growth; India has offered rare earth minerals to Japan that are vital in manufacturing these products. India needs world-class infrastructure, including high-speed railway network, ports and dedicated freight corridors to accelerate its economic growth; Japan has agreed to offer high-speed train technology and capital to India to realise these goals. In addition to these commitments, Japan has agreed to remove some of India‟s defence and space enterprises from its “End Users List.” As per the list select Indian enterprises are barred from having any technologies or business interactions with the Japanese companies.

This issue brief, analysing the joint communiqué issued at the end of prime ministerial level summit talks, and selected speeches made by Prime Minister Modi in Japan, highlights some of the key commitments the leadership of the two countries have made to further deepen India–Japan bilateral ties.

India–Japan Strategic Partnership: From Past to Present

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi‟s visit to Japan and his interactions with Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe was the continuation of a prime ministerial level engagement institutionalised in 2006. While signing the strategic partnership in 2006, India and Japan agreed to hold summit-level talks annually, alternating between New Delhi and Tokyo.

It may be noted that, India–Japan relations have witnessed various intermittent phases in their bilateral relations, including after the Pokhran nuclear test of 1998, during which political interactions between the two countries remained dormant. The institutionalisation of a summit-level engagement has reversed the trend. Undoubtedly, the prime ministerial level interaction, that has taken place almost without interruption since 2006, has transformed the bilateral relationship into a strategic partnership.

As part of the strategic partnership, both the countries have identified a number of areas of bilateral interests in which they are cooperating mutually. These include trade, economics, infrastructure, security and defense and energy security.
Japan was eager to continue and intensify this complementary relationship with India and it lost no time in extending an invitation to the new Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It was keen to become his first foreign host soon after his assumption of office. Nonetheless, India Prime Minster chose neighbouring countries, including Bhutan and Nepal for his foreign visits. After rescheduling his Japan visit twice because of domestic engagements, Indian Prime Minister visited Japan on a five-day official visit starting from August 30. Japanese Prime Minister “expressed his deep appreciation”1 for choosing Japan as his “first destination for a bilateral visit outside India‟s immediate neighbourhood.”2 The statement is reflection of Japan’s sense of satisfaction towards deepening India–Japan relations.

During the visit, the old agenda in India–Japan bilateral relations: expansion of trade and economic ties; foreign direct investment, cooperation in infrastructure sector; development of rail, road and port facilities as well as civil nuclear cooperation etc., dominated the agenda. Since some of the issues identified previously have not reached to fruition, it was a wise strategy of the present political dispensation to carry forward the consultations on these issues and take it to a logical conclusion. However, the new agenda, especially some of the dream projects of Prime Minister Modi, also surfaced during the visit and became the part of bilateral cooperation. Some of these agenda have been discussed below.

Giving New Dimension to Bilateral Strategic Partnership

One of the important outcomes of Prime Minister Narendra Modi‟s Japan visit is elevation of existing strategic partnership to a “special” strategic and global partnership.3 As of now India has signed strategic partnerships with 29 countries and regional groups. However, the terminologies used are slightly different. Before this summit meeting India had accorded this “special” status only to Russia4, with which it has traditional and time-tested ties. Granting Japan a similar status at par with that of Russia is an indication that India attaches utmost importance to its ties with the East Asian Country and in the coming decades Tokyo will remain on the top of New Delhi’s foreign policy priorities. Japan was also eager to upgrade the existing 2+2 dialogue between Japanese foreign and defense ministries and their Indian counterparts to the defense and foreign ministers’ level. The 2+2 dialogue between India and Japan at present takes place at the levels of top bureaucrats of the two governments. The joint statement issued at the end of the summit meeting between Indian and Japanese Prime Ministers notes the two leaders “underlined the importance of the 2 plus 2 dialogue, involving Foreign and Defence Secretaries, for their growing strategic partnership, and decided to seek ways to intensify this dialogue.”5 However, the statement stopped short of announcing the up-gradation of this dialogue. The Japanese media has given different interpretations to India’s unwillingness to upgrade this dialogue during the recent visit of Indian Prime Minister. “Concerns about China were apparently the major stumbling block,”6 noted the Asahi Shimbun. Similarly, the Mainichi Daily observed that the visit “ended with no high-level security talks that had been sought by Japan, in what may have been a move by India to avoid provoking China.”7 However, Jeff Kingston, Director of Asian Studies at Temple University, has a different take: “it seems more likely that India is withholding the two-plus-two deal as a bargaining chip in the broader negotiations.”8 Irrespective of the fact that whether it was India‟s bargaining chip or China factor that hampered the idea of strategic dialogue‟s up-gradation, the two countries still need to do some ground work before institutionalising the new framework.

A Renewed Push to Economic Engagement

While India and Japan were envisioning a long-term strategic partnership they identified that it would be the “economy” which should be the cornerstone of the relationship. In 2006, in a joint statement, India and Japan had affirmed that “a strong and prosperous India is in the interest of Japan and a strong prosperous Japan is in the interest of India.” Both identified ways to improve their bilateral trade which at that time was abysmally low, around six billion US dollars. They decided to create a favourable environment for each others’ investors and concluded a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) after long negotiations in 2011. As part of the economic partnership, both decided to gradually lower the tariffs imposed on some 90,000 goods traded between the two countries and accorded “national treatment” to each other’s investors. The strategy to lower tariff increased the flow of bilateral trade and within a year of implementation of CEPA, the bilateral trade jumped to 18 billion US dollars by the end of fiscal 2012, which was hovering around 12 billion US dollars at the end of fiscal 2011. However, bilateral trade volume did not touch the expected US$ 25 billion marks during the next fiscal rather it has come down to US$ 16 billion.

Similarly, following CEPA Japanese investment was expected to grow exponentially. But it is growing at a slow pace. So far some 1100 Japanese companies have set up their production base in India whereas the number is around 8000 in China. Despite the easing of business norms following adoption of CEPA in 2011, Japanese investors are shying away from Indian market and have been pouring their capitals in Indonesian, Vietnamese and Philippines markets. Sensing the problem faced by the Japanese investors, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the recently concluded visit has assured them that India is replacing “red tape” with “red carpet” for Japanese businessmen. Addressing a gathering of Japanese entrepreneurs in Tokyo, Indian Prime Minister informed them that India has adopted an “ease of business” policy.9 He explained his “make in India” mantra to them and assured the Japanese business that India has vast opportunity for investors.

Explaining his “three D Mantra”, he said that India is not only the biggest Democracy in the world but also has large Demography and Demand. Since, India has a young population; demand for goods will remain high domestically for a longer time and thus India can be a place where the Japanese investors can make their fortune.

Elaborating on India‟s geostrategic location on the world map, he informed them that if they make India their manufacturing hub not only can they sell their finished products to Indian market but also export it to different Asian and African countries through its ports situated alongside India‟s Eastern and Western coasts. 10

During this visit Japan has agreed to earmark 35 billion US dollars in loans and investment to India during the next five years. Undoubtedly, this will help India improve its infrastructure, which observers believe, has been one of the impediments in attracting foreign direct investment within the country. Additionally, India has agreed to introduce bullet train technology between Mumbai and Ahmadabad and the Japanese side has expressed its “readiness to provide financial, technical and operational support to introduce Shinkansen system.”11 However, it will take a little more time to introduce this technology as joint feasibility study consisting of Indian and Japanese experts started last year is yet to be completed.

The success of the bullet train between Mumbai and Ahmadabad will certainly pave the way for introducing this technology between different major cities of India. Both the countries have also signed an agreement to make Varanasi a “smart city” on the lines of Japanese ancient capital Kyoto. Hopefully, the success story of Varanasi and skills learnt during the process will also be experimented on different ancient cities of India.

Some breakthrough was also achieved for joint collaboration in the field of defence technology. Most importantly, Japan has also delisted some of the Indian defense enterprises from its “End Users List”12 which will pave the way for joint defense production among Japanese and Indian companies and thus will help decrease defense spending. India has been willing to partner with Japan in the field of defense technology. However, Japan owing to its decade-long self- imposed ban on exporting defense and defense related technology, had been showing reluctance. Shinzo Abe‟s cabinet, a few months back, eased these restrictions. Stalemate, however, continues over India‟s procurement of US-2 amphibious aircraft, the only of its kind available in the world for advanced air–sea search and rescue operations, which can land on rough sea surface as well as land.

Tokyo wants to sell US-2 aircraft to New Delhi, but New Delhi wants to produce them jointly since the cost of a single US-2 aircraft is roughly $109 million. There were speculations that Japan will give green signal to its companies to go for a joint production of the US-2 given the changes in domestic laws that allow them for joint collaboration but the two counties could not reach an agreement. The joint statement, however, “welcomed progress made in discussions in the Joint Working Group on cooperation in US-2 amphibian aircraft and its technology, and directed their officials to accelerate their discussions.”13

To attract Japanese investment in India, the new political dispensation has announced some new measures during this visit including a plan to establish a new unit under the Prime Minister‟s Office that will facilitate Japanese investment in India.14 But the political commitment can only be realised when it is backed by its entrepreneurs and investors. It is yet to be seen how the Japanese entrepreneurs respond to Prime Minister Modi‟s call.

During the visit Indian Prime Minister also exhorted Japanese leadership to adopt a new political vision to deepen the ties between the two countries. He impressed upon Japanese leadership to establish a “Look at India” policy on the similar lines of India‟s “Look East Policy”15 to further deepen economic and political relationship between the two countries. He also observed that “India is incomplete without Japan and Japan is incomplete without India.”16 This statement is akin to the 2006 commitment in which they identified that a strong and prosperous India and Japan are in each other‟s interests.

Civil Nuclear Cooperation:The Stalemate Continues

Despite some of the success stories of India–Japan relations, signing a nuclear cooperation agreement with Japan remains as an unfinished agenda. The inconclusive agreement is vital for India‟s energy security. However, Japan, owing to concerns of its people who remain opposed to selling nuclear technology to non-NPT signatories, has been treading cautiously in signing nuclear cooperation deal with India. It was expected that Prime Minister Abe who considers selling of technology, including nuclear technology abroad as one of the main pillars of Japan‟s economic revival will clinch the pending civilian nuclear cooperation agreement. They noted in their joint statement that the two prime ministers “directed their officials to further accelerate the negotiations with a view to concluding the Agreement at an early date.”17 Similar observations have been made about the nuclear cooperation in the joint statement signed between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Japanese counterparts during the last few years. The persisting stalemate between the two countries over the nuclear cooperation agreement suggests that they need to do more to bridge their perception.

Conclusion

Undoubtedly, Japan’s cooperation with India in improving its infrastructure by providing loans and technology including the metro rail system has transformed India’s urban landscape. It is hoped that he commitment made during Indian Prime Minister’s recent visit to Japan will be implemented in letter and spirit. The complementary nature of the relationship between India and Japan would guide the Asian region into a prosperous and peaceful region. Also, it is hoped that both the countries would reach a consensus accommodating each other‟s stance over the deadlocked civil nuclear cooperation agreement that will give a new fillip to India–Japan economic ties.

*Dr. Shamshad A. Khan is Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.

Endnotes:
1. “Tokyo Declaration for India – Japan Special Strategic and Global Partnership”, September 1, 2014, Ministry of External Affairs of India, available at http://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral- documents.htm?dtl/23965/Tokyo+Declaration+for+India++Japan+Spec ial+Strategic+and+Global+Partnersh ip ( accessed on September 3, 2014).
2. Ibid.
3. Ibid.
4. India‟s strategic partnership with Russia has been termed as “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership.”
5. Ibid.
6. “China gets in way of Japan, India agreement”, The Asahi Shimbun, September 2, 2014. Available at http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/politics/AJ201409020042 ( accessed on September 2, 2014).
7. “Modi visit fails to produce high-level security framework between Japan, India”, The Mainichi Daily, September 2, 2014, available at http://mainichi.jp/english/english/newsselect/news/20140902p2a00m0na017000c.html (accessed on September 2, 2014).
8. Jeff Kingston, “Showmanship trumps substance during Modi visit”, The Japan Times, September 6, 2014.
9. Text of PM‟s keynote address at event organized by Nikkei Inc. and Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), September 2, 2014, Prime Minister Office of India, complete text of speech available at http://pmindia.gov. in/en/news_updates/text-of-pms-keynote-address-at-event-organized-by- nikke i- inc-and- japan-external-trade-organization-jetro-2/ ( accessed on September 5, 2014).
10. Ibid.
11. “Tokyo Declaration for India – Japan Special Strategic and Global Partnership”, Op. Cit. n.1.
12. Ibid.
13. Ibid.
14. “Japanese Men in Modi PMO‟s Special Team”, The Economic Times, September 2, 2014.
15. Text of PM‟s keynote address at event organized by Nikkei Inc. and Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), Op. Cit. n.8.
16. Ibid.
17. “Tokyo Declaration for India – Japan Special Strategic and Global Partnership”, Op. Cit. n.1.

Source:
This article was published as a Policy Brief (PDF) by the Indian Council of World Affairs, and reprinted with permission.

The post Deconstructing “Tokyo Declaration” 2014: Takeaways From Indian Prime Minister’s Japan Visit – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.


Brazil’s New Age – Analysis

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By Patricia Galves Derolle

Brazil is the largest country in size and population in comparison to other Latin American countries, and it is the seventh largest economy in the world by nominal GDP. Since the mid 2000’s, Brazil has become a more attractive global player: it has diversified its economy and its partnerships, and launched the Growth Acceleration Plan (2007) in order to increase investment in infrastructure and provide tax incentives for economic growth. Brazil has also decreased domestic poverty through development plans: according to the World Bank, poverty (people living with USD 2 per day) has fallen from 21% of the population in 2003 to 11% in 2009. An overall view of Brazilian economy shows that the level of foreign direct investment is increasing, the wages are rising, the middle class in growing, and the unemployment rate is low, which offers a wide range of opportunities in different areas. Despite the positive scenario, Brazil is an emerging economy and faces issues and challenges to be surpassed.

Commercial and Economic Partnerships

Brazil has strong commercial and economic ties with both the developed and the developing world. To diversify partnership so that its economy is not entirely dependent on the West is not a recent action plan for Brazil. Since the 1960’s, with the Independent Foreign Policy, Brazil has searched for different markets to export primary goods. In the 90’s, Brazil focused its economy on the developed world, being the United States its primary partner. During Lula da Silva’s government, Brazil started searching for alternatives to boost economic growth and increase exports, although keeping traditional partners.

After the Goldman Sachs report on emerging economies, released in 2001, Brazil started again to diversify its partnership with other countries that were similar to it. In this context, Brazil, Russia, India and China decided to strengthen their relationships and to create a non-structured grouping called BRIC. Only in 2011 South Africa joined the grouping, turning the acronym BRIC into BRICS. Recently, the BRICS created a Developing Bank, which offers its members credit to infrastructure needs. With the traditional western partners, Brazil intensifies commercial and economic relations, mainly bilaterally or through regional groupings. In a simple analysis, Brazil exports primary and imports manufactured goods. In a multilateral level, Brazil disagrees with the West on issues that concern the International Monetary Fund (quotas) and the World Trade Organization (agricultural subsidies).

Moreover, Brazilian Foreign Minister A. Patriota proudly claimed already by 2011 that Brazil has more embassies in Africa than Britain. As prof. Anis Bajrektarevic indicated: “…in the years to come, we will see tarevic indicated: “whether the current African frustrations were exploited for the geopolitical and geo-economic ends by the non-traditional players in Africa such as China, India and Brazil, and if the cost-exposure faced by the traditional ones became unbearable.

International Trade

Brazil is a founding member of the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT), guiding principle of the World Trade Organization, and has helped the establishment of the WTO itself after the Marrakesh Agreement, in 1994. Currently, the Brazilian Ambassador Roberto Azevêdo is WTO’s Director-General. His presence at the institution might mark the view of the developing countries towards world trade policies and regulations. As an active member, Brazil has utilized the Dispute Settlement Body several times. A 2013 statistics shows that Brazil used the DSB 113 times: 26 as a complaint (most remarkable cases: 10 against the USA, 7 against the European Union, and 3 against Canada), 14 as a respondent (most remarkable cases: 4 against the USA, 4 against the European Union, and 1 against Canada), and 73 as a third party. The presence as a third party (73 times) shows the willingness of Brazil to understand better free trade policies as well as influence regulations in favor of the developing countries.

Regional Groupings

The Americas has several blocs, but according to South American theorists they do not overlap each other. A Brazilian author mentions that the Central and South American blocs are concentric circles, in which each country prioritizes the most important blocs. Brazil is a member of some blocs (Unasur, Celac etc) , but Mercosur is by far the most important to the country. The exchange of goods among the members is high, being Brazil and Argentina the most important trading partners. The bloc’s objectives at the moment prioritize the strengthening of commercial and economic ties, the dialogue among businessmen of the member countries, the mobility of academics and the proper establishment of Funds in order to decrease asymmetries among its members. FOCEM is the most important fund because its goal is to develop members’ competitiveness, social cohesion, and infrastructure. Brazil, as the most important member, finances most of these objectives alone, with Argentina coming in second. At the moment, however, Mercosur faces a major challenge: the Pacific Alliance, a grouping of other Latin American countries (Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru) that have extra-regional agreements with important global players such as China. The competitiveness among the Latin American countries might give a reality check for Mercosur’s unsustainable ambitions, in which Brazil is its major defender.

Business and Investment

Since the beginning of the 2000’s, Brazil’s objectives are to promote economic growth and to fight poverty, although along the years the country has faced many adversities, such as having to reduce foreign debt and to implement measures so to tackle inflation, including the adoption of high interest rates, affecting therefore the political and economic stability. The economic uncertainty has directly affected investment to Brazilian businesses, which were unable to modernize and to become more competitive.  Brazil is emerging and becoming a more solid place to foreign investments. The government welcomes foreign investment, as long as it represents a long-term commitment to economic development, which focuses specially in the areas of agriculture, technology and industries and manufacture of goods that are currently being imported. Brazil is known as a global commodities powerhouse, exporting a great variety of products such as animal produce, grains and sugar. Moreover, its economy includes several types of industries, including state owned companies, private and foreign companies, semi-state companies etc. It can be bureaucratic to do business in Brazil, but the local market welcomes foreign investment.

Conclusion

Brazil is a thriving economy that welcomes foreign investment that is aligned with its main principles. It is also a global player in economic terms and in global and regional issues. The 2014 elections are coming and the unpredictable political and economic scenario is once more arriving. The commercial and economic partnerships should remain both diversified and traditionalist, with Brazil’s national interests set as priorities.

Patricia Galves Derolle
Founder of Internacionalista
São Paulo, Brazil

The post Brazil’s New Age – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

South Asia’s Water Dilemma – OpEd

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By Nasurullah Brohi

Water is the most necessary constituent for the survival of living things on earth. Without water nothing can exist; it is the most precious gift of nature. Apart from the drinking usage, it is also vital for the economic and agricultural development of any country. The usage of water can be separated into three main types; i.e. domestic consumption, commercial/industrial and usage for land irrigation purposes. But the growing population, industrial, agricultural and domestic uses and the natural calamities in shape of melting glaciers is causing immense environmental degradation.

Pakistan is an agrarian economy and from the period of its very inception, keeping in mind the fact of agro-economy the country has profoundly invested in water engineering projects to establish the world’s largest gravity-driven irrigation network on the Indus River System. Apart from fulfilling a huge section of the country’s energy needs from hydropower installations, the system irrigates about 14 million hectares of cultivated land and ropes the farming sector to contribute only ¼ to national GDP. Like many other natural resources, Pakistan is also self sufficient in water resources, but unluckily due to the mismanagement of water resources, the country often faces either water scarcity or heavy floods on its soil.

The irrigated agriculture in Pakistan is under colossal stress because of rising challenges of increased demand for food commodities due to a rapidly growing population. This is mainly due to the reason that supply side greatly suffers because of unfavorable conditions of the cultivating of crops on peak season. The water shortage factors being its main cause, the expected output fails to meet the required needs, therefore, the demand side escalates with greater force.

The water issue of Pakistan is as old as the country itself. In a period of less than one year of its inception, on 1 April 1948, India stopped the flow of Madhupur and Ferozepur Head work which was awarded to Pakistan under Radcliff award. Consequently, Pakistan having no other option to keep up with its very survivability, mobilized the troops and the conflict resulted in the shape of capturing parts of Kashmir territory by the both sides. And India gained access in the catchment areas of the whole of the Indus River System. India being at the upper riparian never left the tactics of exploitation and the water crisis became an issue of Pakistan’s very survival meanwhile, both the states agreed to resolve the issue through independent observer of the World Bank and Indus Water Treaty was signed in 1960.

The recent history of floods in Pakistan specially from 2010 are mainly due to the reason when India gets more than enough water in monsoon season it spills into the rivers in Pakistan. And when the Pakistani farmers need water for cultivating their lands, India deprives Pakistan of its due water proportion. Such steps nurture further hostility between two nuclear-armed neighbors who already having bitter experiences of wars and disputes. The Indus Water Treaty under auspices of the World Bank decided the allocation of the Ravi, Sutlej and Beas to India and Indus, Jhelum, Chenab to Pakistan. These three rivers constitute 75 percent of the flow of the whole Indus river system. The Indus Water Treaty allows India only under specified situation to tap the water of three rivers allocated to Pakistan. But often India tries to obstruct the flow of River Jhelum through the building Wullar Barrage and Tulbul Navigation Project. The project will greatly affect Pakistan’s Mangla Dam and needs of fresh water reservoirs likewise the Baghliar Dam project of India is
already adding to Pakistan’s water shortage miseries.

The water issue is gradually becoming the central point in the state to state relationship. The growing water quarrel has made South Asia a water-stressed region with prompting conflicts. The growing population, agriculture and industrial usage results in water deficiency. The issue of water utilization and building dams is becoming a great matter of concern and resulting in conflicts between upper and lower riparian states. Pakistan is one of the world’s nearly arid countries where the overall annual rainfall ratio is not more than 240mm. The country has very limited water resources with a storage capacity of maximum 30 days however, due to the inefficient water flow infrastructures the country often gets troubled either by shortage or by the floods. The source of the problem lies in improper usage of existing water resources. The water is frequently mismanaged and wasted which results in the scarcity. For Pakistan it is need of the hour to build more water
storage projects and maintenance of the old river banks so that the water keeps proper flow and address the better demand-side management to resolve the water dilemma.

The writer works as Research Fellow at Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad.

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Yemen Energy Profile: Energy Sector In State Of Flux – Analysis

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Yemen’s energy sector is in a state of flux. Declining oil production and frequent attacks on Yemen’s energy infrastructure have offset positive developments in the country’s natural gas sector since 2009. Yemen’s difficult security environment complicates the exploration, production, and transport of energy resources in the country, and could undermine the country’s emerging liquefied natural gas (LNG) export sector.

Yemen is not a major energy producer or exporter compared with other countries in the Middle East. However, the country’s location at the Bab el-Mandab, a key chokepoint in international shipping, makes Yemen important in terms of international energy trade. More than 3.4 million barrels of oil per day (bbl/d) passed through Bab el-Mandab in 2013. Closure of the two-mile strait would force tankers to sail around the southern tip of Africa to reach European, North American, and South American markets.

Yemen’s government depends on the country’s hydrocarbons sector. Even with the earnings from natural gas exports, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that Yemen needs an oil export price of approximately $215 per barrel to balance its budget. IMF figures also show that 63% of government revenues came from the hydrocarbons sector between 2010-12, and that hydrocarbons accounted for 89% of total export revenues. Yemen, as a member of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), reported in July 2013 that government revenues from the oil and natural gas sector in 2011 were more than $5 billion.

Oil production in Yemen declined steadily after peaking in 2001, but beginning in 2009, the country began producing commercial quantities of natural gas for domestic use and for exports as LNG. This development could help the country stabilize its economy even without an extremely high oil export price. However, replacing oil export revenues with LNG export revenues does not reduce the country’s dependence on its hydrocarbons sector.

Oil

Yemen’s oil production has decreased significantly since peaking in 2001 because of natural decline in the country’s aging fields and frequent attacks on its oil infrastructure.

According to the Oil & Gas Journal, Yemen had proved reserves of oil totaling 3 billion barrels as of January 2014. Yemen has two primary crude streams, the light and sweet Marib stream and the medium-gravity and more sulfur-rich Masila stream. According to the government, the southeast Masila Basin holds more than 80% of the country’s total reserves.

The combination of declining production in its mature fields and frequent attacks on its energy infrastructure has left Yemen’s oil sector in poor shape. In 2013, there were at least 10 attacks on Yemen’s oil and natural gas pipeline system, and some industry sources estimate closer to 24 attacks. In 2012, there were more than 15 attacks, and oil exports were completely offline for most of the first half of the year.

Securing the country’s pipelines and other critical energy infrastructure is a stated goal of Yemen’s current President, but the efforts have not been entirely successful to date. The security situation has led several smaller international oil companies to suspend operations.

The country continues to hold bidding rounds for exploration blocks that may hold additional oil resources in both offshore and onshore areas. There are contradicting reports of Yemen’s additional oil resources. Even if additional resources exist in the country, the current security environment restricts the ability of companies to produce and transport oil.

Exploration and production

Yemen’s oil production declined after 2001 as a result of the country’s maturing fields, and attacks on the country’s oil infrastructure since 2011 have led to significant short-term disruptions.

Yemen began producing crude oil in 1986 at very low levels and gradually increased production throughout 1987. The country’s first significant production came in 1988, when it produced 173,000 barrels per day (bbl/d). Yemen’s average monthly crude oil production declined after 2001, when production peaked at more than 440,000 bbl/d. Yemen had plans to boost production to 500,000 bbl/d, but declining production at its maturing fields, limited exploration, and frequent attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure make that goal infeasible. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that Yemen’s crude oil production was about 100,000 bbl/d in March 2014.

Most of Yemen’s production is from the Marib-Jawf area in central Yemen and near the Masila area in the east, with production coming from just 13 of the country’s 105 exploration blocks. Since 2001, the country’s most productive field has been the Tawila field, which averaged nearly 90,000 bbl/d in 2003 but has since declined along with many of the country’s other large fields.

Natural decline rates at many of Yemen’s major fields—including Tawila—account for the country’s generally falling production, but the frequent attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure since 2011 have caused much sharper declines in recent years. Other factors contributing to lower production include strikes—Norway’s DNO had to cease all production in June 2014 because staff protested that the company failed to fulfill its obligations.

Sector organization

Yemen’s Ministry of Oil and Minerals oversees the country’s oil and natural gas sectors. The ministry sets oil and gas policies and manages relations with foreign operators, but any contracts with foreign companies also require parliamentary approval. The national oil company, Yemen General Corporation for Oil, Gas, and Mineral Resources, guides a number of state-owned subsidiaries that handle most day-to-day operations and deals with energy sector revenues.

Selected subsidiaries of the Yemen General Corporation for Oil, Gas, and Minerals
Group Function
Aden Refinery Company Oversees operations at the Aden refinery, including transport to international destinations
Petroleum Exploration and Production Authority Manages petroleum exploration and production; oversees licensing rounds and contracts with foreign investors
Safer E&P Operations company Upstream operator; second largest producer in Yemen
Yemen Gas Company Responsible for sales, marketing, and supply of liquefied petroleum gases domestically
Yemen Investments Company for Oil and Minerals Upstream operator; focused on Jannah and West Ayad areas
Yemen Petroleum Products Distribution company Markets and distributes petroleum products in the local market
Yemen Refining Company Oversees domestic refining operations
Sources: Yemen Ministry of Oil and Minerals, Yemen General Corporation for Oil, Gas, and Minerals, company websites

 

Foreign operators account for most of the oil production in Yemen. Major international oil companies in Yemen include Total (which operates the Yemen LNG facility in addition to being active in several exploration blocks), Occidental Petroleum Corporation, and Nexen, a subsidiary of the China National Offshore Oil Corporation.

Yemen relies heavily on production-sharing agreements (PSAs) with foreign companies, which usually include 20-year concessions for production activities. In 2013, Yemen’s government announced plans to transfer any expiring exploration licenses to state-owned companies. Production royalties paid to Yemen’s government range between 3% and 10%.

Exports, imports, and consumption

Attacks on Yemen’s key oil infrastructure continue to curtail both domestic petroleum consumption and exports.

With the continued decline in oil production since the early 2000s, Yemen has struggled to keep its export sector at normal operating levels. The pipeline, which runs from the Marib region in the center of the country to the export terminal at Ras Isa, is critical to Yemen’s export operations. As such, it is one of the most frequent targets of sabotage.

Yemen does not have any overland pipeline connections to its neighbors, so all of the country’s petroleum exports depart via tanker vessels. In recent years, more than three-fourths of their petroleum exports went to destinations in Asia. In 2013, Yemen exported just 124,000 bbl/d of crude oil, according to data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence tanker tracking service. Exports are down from more than 350,000 bbl/d 10 years earlier. In addition to crude oil exports, Yemen exports limited amounts of refined petroleum products, averaging just 16,000 bbl/d of refined product exports in 2013, according to data from Global Trade Information Services’ Global Trade Atlas.

Yemen regularly imports petroleum products, particularly distillate fuel oil and residual fuel oil. Between 2000 and 2013, Yemen’s imports of all petroleum products grew from just 2,000 bbl/d to 78,000 bbl/d, based on data from FACTS Global Energy. The possibility of continuing attacks on its energy infrastructure and further production declines means Yemen’s reliance on imported petroleum products will likely increase in the short term.

Yemen’s oil consumption has been trending steadily upward, reaching 144,000 bbl/d in 2013. The country has two operating refineries with a total capacity of 140,000 bbl/d. While these refineries produce some of the petroleum products Yemen needs, the refineries do not operate at full capacity, and the country imports additional petroleum products to help meet internal demand. The Aden Refinery is the largest in the country, accounting for almost all of Yemen’s total refining capacity of 140,000 bbl/d.

Yemen refinery capacities as of January 1, 2014
Operator Refinery name Capacity (bbl/d)
Aden Refining Company Aden Refinery 130,000
Yemen Oil Company Ma’arib Refinery 10,000
Total 140,000
Source: Oil & Gas Journal

Natural gas

Until recently, Yemen reinjected most of its natural gas production to aid in oil recovery. However, since 2009 the country has been an LNG exporter, and the government aims to increase the use of natural gas in many sectors, including in electricity generation.

As of January 2014, Yemen held 16.9 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proved natural gas reserves according to the Oil & Gas Journal. One of the larger natural gas deposits in Yemen is in the hydrocarbon-rich Marib-Jawf area, where there may be 18 Tcf in recoverable volumes of natural gas, according to Yemen’s government.

Until 2009, Yemen reinjected nearly all of the natural gas it produced to aid in oil extraction. In 2009, the Yemen LNG facility opened, and the country began to divert dry natural gas away from the oil fields and toward domestic and international consumers. Yemen’s domestic market began consuming small amounts of natural gas in 2009, and there are plans to increase the use of natural gas in many sectors—particularly in power generation—to make up for diminishing petroleum supplies.

Exploration and production

Because Yemen’s natural gas was historically reinjected into oil fields to aid oil recovery, there was rarely any exploration specifically targeting natural gas. After the opening of the Yemen LNG facility in 2009, the economic incentives for discovering and producing natural gas changed.

Yemen began producing natural gas in the early 1990s, however, from 1993 until 2009—when the Yemen LNG facility came online—Yemen reinjected virtually all (98%) of the natural gas produced inside the country. With the opening of the country’s only LNG facility in November of 2009, Yemen began producing commercial quantities of dry natural gas for the first time in its history. In 2013, Yemen produced 365 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of dry natural gas, up from just 28 Bcf in 2009 when the production of dry natural gas began.

With the continued build-out of infrastructure to feed Yemen LNG, the possibility of diverting natural gas used in oil recovery to domestic consumers—such as the power sector—becomes more feasible. Further, exploration in Yemen’s onshore and offshore blocks may yield additional recoverable quantities of natural gas, although, like oil exploration, the security environment in the country will play a big role in determining the interest of international investors.

Exports, imports, and consumption

The startup of the Yemen LNG facility in 2009 gave Yemen the ability to export natural gas for the first time.

Yemen has never been a natural gas importer, and until 2009, never consumed natural gas domestically. Since 2009, Yemen’s natural gas consumption has grown, but not nearly as fast as its natural gas exports. Yemen’s consumption of natural gas remains limited, peaking at just 34 Bcf in 2010. In contrast, Yemen exported about 330 Bcf of LNG in 2013, representing more than 90% of its total dry natural gas production that year. According to IHS Global Insight, Yemen LNG provided approximately 3% of 2013 global LNG volumes.

French company Total operates the 6.7 million ton per year (322 Bcf) Yemen LNG facility, and most of the exported LNG is under contract to GDF Suez, Total, or Korean Gas (KOGAS). The volumes purchased by GDF Suez and Total are non-dedicated—meaning that they can go to any willing buyer—while the volumes contracted to KOGAS all go to South Korea.

In late 2012, Yemen LNG began renegotiating its contracts with GDF Suez and Total, claiming that the prices it received for LNG were too far below prices elsewhere in the international market. As of July 2014, these companies have not agreed on a new price. However, in 2013, KOGAS agreed to increase its contract price. Yemen LNG is also in discussions with Turkey’s Petroleum Pipeline Corporation (BOTAS) on a deal that could send up to 35 Bcf of LNG per year to Turkey.

Like its oil infrastructure, Yemen’s natural gas infrastructure—particularly pipelines—is the target of persistent attacks. In 2012, Yemen LNG was offline for more than six months as the result of numerous attacks on the country’s natural gas system, leading to several lost cargos. In 2013, there were several more attacks but no associated production or export declines. However, militants did force a shutdown of the 450 megawatt gas-fired power plant supplying Yemen’s western regions in September 2013, contributing to electricity shortages throughout the country.

Electricity

The majority of Yemen’s population does not have access to electricity, although the country plans to build several new generating facilities over the coming years.

Yemen’s electricity infrastructure is outdated and insufficient to meet the country’s needs. Data from the World Bank indicated that, as recently as 2010, only 40%of Yemen’s population had access to electricity. Even for grid-connected consumers, blackouts are frequent as a result of persistent attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure.

Petroleum, including distillate and residual fuel oil, fuels much of Yemen’s electricity generation, although natural gas is capturing a growing market share as the country develops its natural gas resources.

Yemen’s generating capacity as of 2012 was just 1.5 million kilowatts (1.5 gigawatts) according to Yemen’s Ministry of Electricity, one of the lowest in the Middle East region. According to the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), capacity in 2013 was only 850 megawatts, or only enough to meet 41% of the country’s electricity demand.

Likewise, in 2012 Yemen’s total net generation (6.2 billion kilowatthours) were among the lowest in the Middle East, despite the country having the fourth-largest population in the region. Many of Yemen’s electric plants are now able to use natural gas as fuel, which has helped the country move away from burning petroleum to generate electricity.

Over the past several years, Yemen worked to integrate its electric grid with neighboring Saudi Arabia’s. In 2007, the two countries established a grid interconnection, and there is a $400 million interconnection expansion program that should allow for transfers of between 500 megawatts and 1,000 megawatts between the two countries.

In August of 2013, Yemen began construction on a new 400 megawatt gas-fired generating facility, and the facility is set to begin operating in late 2014. Additionally, in September 2012, Yemen reached an agreement with the China National Corporation of Overseas Economic Cooperation on the construction of three natural gas-fueled power plants. Each will have more than 400 megawatts of generating capacity. Further, the government of Turkey agreed to help Yemen construct a 163 megawatt electric plant capable of burning both petroleum and natural gas in late 2012.

In November 2013, the government announced that it reached a deal with China to build a series of power plants with a combined capacity of 5 gigawatts, including both coal-fired and natural gas-fired plants.

Yemen’s government also plans to develop a renewable energy sector in its 2009 National Strategy for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency. Yemen began pilot projects for solar and geothermal generation projects in 2003 and 2006, respectively. Progress has been slow because of a lack of financial backing and because of the security environment in the country.

Notes

Data presented in the text are the most recent available as of September 25, 2014.
Data are EIA estimates unless otherwise noted.

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Exaggerating Instead Of Containing: Obama And The Islamic State – Analysis

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By Omar Shaukatl

In response to its beheading of two US journalists and the havoc the Islamic State group (IS) has created in the Syrian and Iraqi region, US president Barack Obama recently laid out his vision for confronting IS to his country’s citizenry. He presented a four step strategy which essentially consists of building an international coalition, without involving US ‘boots on the ground’, that would support the Iraqi military and ‘moderate’ Syrian rebels in confronting IS and wresting territory back from its control.

Obama said that the role of the US would also consist of continuing with the airstrikes on IS positions in Iraq, along with the possibility of targeting IS strongholds within Syria.

IS, in turn, responded with the release of another video in which a British aid worker was beheaded for being the citizen of a country that supports US strikes against IS.

Given this context, how is this US-IS confrontation likely to unfold, and what are some of the complications that Obama’s approach seems to ignore?

First, it should be remembered that after its dramatic capture of Mosul and Tikrit in June, IS has not been able to register any substantial victories in the Iraqi battlefield. In fact, IS has been on the receiving end in Iraq, having to give up the Mosul Dam and areas in the Anbar province. However, IS has been able to gain territory within Syria, effectively coming to control the three eastern provinces of Raqqa, Deir ez-Zour, and Hasakah. So, as the US-led coalition provides further support to Iraqi forces, and if the Iraqi forces are able to hold territory gained from IS and quell the non-IS section of the insurgency, IS operatives can be expected to retreat into Syria. This could turn Syria into the place where Obama’s goal to ‘degrade and destroy’ IS will be fulfilled.

Therefore, Obama’s policy on the Syrian situation will be crucial in this regard. It is precisely over this point that US policy has been utterly confused. While supporting the rebellion but without decisively committing to remove the Assad regime – either by implementing a no-fly zone or arming the rebels with sufficient anti-aircraft weaponry – the US has inadvertently allowed for IS to gain a solid foothold inside Syria, and emerge as the strongest group within the Syrian rebels.

Obama’s invasion of Syrian airspace will not yield any immediate gain in favour of the Syrian rebels. Even if sufficient intelligence provides for precise targets, and we discount the civilians deaths likely to drive ordinary Syrians to embrace IS over the US, non-IS rebels are not well positioned to take over control of IS territory. Instead, it is more likely that Syrian troops will reap the immediate benefits of a US attack on IS inside Syria.

Therefore, Obama will need to make up his mind about Assad, and either make an alliance with the regime or commit to removing him.

Obama will also need to be clear about the role Iran would play in his multi-nation alliance against IS. Contradictory approaches to Iran’s involvement, such as those that were displayed at the recent Paris conference wherein after having declined an invitation for Iran in order to please his Arab allies, US secretary of state John Kerry then suggested that the US is open to a conversation with Iran, will only serve to alienate Iran. With Turkey and other Arab countries not willing to provide ground troops, Obama must understand that Iran is his best possible ally in the region. Iran is already leading the anti-IS Shia militias inside Iraq and it is a supporter of the Syrian regime, with whom it might be able to effect a political transition to the liking of the US.

However, recognising these gaps on Syria and Iran is not to suggest that Obama’s overall approach to confronting IS is commendable. It would have been better for the US to lobby behind the scenes and help defuse the cold war between Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, in order to help these countries form a united front against IS. For, regardless of whatever lobbying the Obama administration is able to accomplish at the ongoing UN General Assembly meeting and increase the number of states in his anti-IS coalition, local regional powers such as Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Iran must recognise that IS is a threat to their collective raisons d’État, before it is a threat to the US.

Without first getting these Middle East actors to trust each other, Obama’s vision of a military alliance will be perceived as yet another US/western invasion of the Middle East. This perception will not only cause the US to become more vulnerable to terrorist attacks, whether on its soil or elsewhere, but also present jihadists with a chance to heal their crippling divisions in order to confront their biggest external enemy, the ‘crusading Christian and Zionist western regimes’.

This is significant because, prior to the increased US intervention against IS, the jihadist world was divided and largely consumed by intra-jihadist factionalism between al-Qaeda and IS. Though this is still the case, we can expect that these groups, instead of fighting each other, will now refocus their combined energies against the US and its allies. We are already witnessing renewed calls for such steps by senior al-Qaeda members; figures that are based in countries ranging from North Africa to the Indian subcontinent. There is no suggestion from IS that it will reciprocate in agreement. If such a reconciliation were to come about, we are likely to witness it through actions rather than words; under the command of its current leader, Abu Baqr al-Baghdadi, IS tends to remain silent until it is ready for a grand display.

In this way, Obama’s anti-IS strategy is not only flawed militarily and politically, but it might end up having an effect opposite to the one intended. IS consider nation-states as idols to be rejected, and armed with its ideology of martyrdom, the group will not be deterred by an inflated number of states in alliance against it. Nor will it will forget that the US brought these states together. Instead of degrading and destroying IS, Obama can potentially expand and strengthen IS as a direct threat to the US, even as they are losing territory in Iraq and Syria. Much like George W. Bush’s overblown reaction to 9/11, which only helped fuel the rise of IS in Iraq, Obama too seems to have overreacted to the beheading videos. IS, after all, consistently insists on calling jihadists to migrate into the territory it holds, rather than engage in al-Qaeda style 9/11 tactics. In this, it is indeed a proto-state and an insurgent army, rather than a typical international terrorist group. Additionally, neither have US intelligence agencies picked up any imminent threat emanating from IS against the US.

Though his strategy is not identical to Bush’s, one can only hope that in his enthusiasm for an expansive military response rather than a policy of containment, Obama will not leave a similar legacy of pain and destruction in the Middle East and the rest of the world.

Omar Shaukat is a Research Fellow at the Afro-Middle East Centre (AMEC) in Johannesburg, South Africa ( omar@amec.org.za). The opinions expressed above are solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect AMEC’s official view or policy on the topic under consideration.

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US And Vietnam To Discuss Curbing China’s Sea Claims – Analysis

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By David Brown

When Vietnamese Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh and US Secretary of State John Kerry meet in early October, China’s aggressive behavior in the waters of Southeast Asia will top their agenda. In the months leading up to the meeting, Washington’s foreign policy elite have been debating whether it is in America’s interest to get involved in the dispute. The strategic implications of letting China have its sway are too serious for the US to adopt a binary policy of going in all guns blazing or looking the other way. Kerry and Minh should work out a middle course that protects US policy autonomy while maintaining balance in the region.

China is a rising power and its cooperation is essential in efforts to contain terrorism, slow climate change, curb nuclear proliferation and so on. But the US cannot ignore China’s drive to establish hegemony over the seas that touch its shores. Cautiously in the East China Sea, where Japan, allied with the United States, is a formidable opponent, and confidently in the South China Sea, China has mounted a determined challenge to the international order expressed in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, UNCLOS, and the notion that territorial disputes should be settled, not by force, but by negotiation or arbitration.

Six years ago China presented a crude map to illustrate its claim to “indisputable sovereignty” over the area bounded by a nine-dash line enclosing 3.5 million square kilometers.

With each year that’s passed since then, China’s upped the ante. Deploying hundreds of deep-sea fishing boats and many dozens of coast guard vessels, Beijing has challenged its neighbors’ sovereignty over exclusive economic zones drawn according to UNCLOS rules. It has driven Vietnamese fishermen out of traditional fishing grounds, wrested the aquatic resources of Scarborough Shoal from Manila’s control, harassed oil and gas exploration off Vietnam’s central coast, and planted markers on James Shoal, 50 miles off the Malaysian coast and 2200 miles south of China’s Hainan Island. This year China again proved its mastery of the tactical initiative, deploying a deep-sea oil drilling rig and an armada of escort vessels into waters near Vietnam’s central coast while sending a flotilla of seagoing pumps, dredges and cement mixers further south with the mission of converting a handful of reefs into artificial islets.

Beijing has been impervious to persuasion and angered by tough talk from US diplomats – from Hillary Clinton and Kerry on down. Xi Jinping’s government may know that the records it relies on to support an “historic claim” to the South China Sea are legally untenable, but Chinese public opinion finds them persuasive. China’s man in the street is furious that countries on the periphery of “China’s South Sea” are “stealing China’s resources” when they fish on the high seas or drill for offshore oil and gas.

China, it seems, has no intention of submitting its sweeping territorial claims to rulings by international tribunals. It evidences little more interest in negotiating a Code of Conduct with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. At most, Chinese spokesmen have hinted at a disposition to be generous when and only when Vietnam or the Philippines acknowledge the superior merit of China’s claims.

It has thus become impossible to regard the South China Sea as an inconsequential sideshow to a hoped-for entente between the United States and the emergent Chinese superpower. The conflict is not inconsequential – the sea lanes carry nearly half the world’s commerce. Added now is profound worry that Beijing’s steadily more aggressive tactics there and its dismissal, whenever inconvenient, of the rules of the international order reveal China’s true nature with which the international community must contend in other places in times to come. China’s actions and attitudes have made confrontation in the South China Sea a central concern of US diplomacy and strategic planning.

In the South China Sea, as elsewhere in the world, US engagement is essential if China’s ambitions are to be effectively countered. Tough talk alone will not stiffen the ASEAN backbone nor impress Beijing.

From a tactical perspective, the US has behaved as if there were no viable options in the large space between denunciation of Chinese provocations and deploying the 7th Fleet. China on the other hand has consistently exploited opportunities in the middle space. It has relied on paramilitary assets, coast guard ships and auxiliary “fishing boats,” to further its sovereign ambitions while the Peoples Liberation Army Navy, PLAN, waits discreetly just over the horizon.

Mimicking Chinese tactics, the US and Asian friends and allies could step up cooperation among their coast guards, prominently including a robust schedule of multilateral training exercises at sea. Military assistance that enhances Southeast Asian states’ abilities to keep watch over their maritime frontiers will reduce China’s capability to spring unpleasant surprises. Skillfully managed, such activities would, Carlyle Thayer has argued, “put the onus on China to decide the risk of confronting mixed formations of vessels and aircraft.”

Washington ought also to forge a much closer relationship with Vietnam, the only Southeast Asian country with both the military deterrent capacity and, assured of American backing, the will to stand up to China. China’s drill-rig deployment in May stunned Hanoi’s Communist leaders and may have tipped the Politburo balance against continued strenuous efforts to appease Beijing.

Hanoi and Washington have been courting since summer of 2012 and that intensified this summer. Largely for reasons of face – Vietnam doesn’t like being lumped in with North Korea, Iran, Syria and China – it wants the US to drop its ban on lethal weapons sales. Washington, meanwhile, has conditioned such sales on “movement” on human-rights issues – an issue also likely to figure in Kerry-Minh talk.

Forging a strategic entente is not easy for either Hanoi or Washington. Each must give a bit on political rights. Yet, with the wolf at Hanoi’s door, pragmatic adjustments may lay the foundation of an effective counter to Beijing’s drive for hegemony over the South China Sea and domination of adjacent nations.

The US has already intervened effectively in support of the Philippines. Steps to upgrade and reinforce Philippine maritime surveillance and self-defense capabilities have had a tonic effect, allaying concerns that Manila may engage in risky, desperate behavior.

A higher profile of American engagement vis-à-vis China in the South China Sea ought to reinforce diplomacy. In that respect, the US could press Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines to sort out their claims among themselves. It could foster initiatives to draw Chinese authorities into discussions of multilateral management of rapidly depleting ocean fisheries and Chinese firms into joint exploration of the seabed for oil and gas.

There’s no way for the United States to engage more actively in the South China Sea issues without angering China. That would probably have short-term negative consequences for US-China cooperation in other arenas, though Beijing is unlikely to refrain from cooperation that is in its own interest in order to punish Washington. The longer-term consequences of limiting China’s overweening ambition will be salutary – Beijing will understand that it cannot rewrite the rules of international relations at will.

David Brown is a retired American diplomat who writes on contemporary Vietnam. He may be reached at nworbd@gmail.com.

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Hong Kong’s Pro-Democracy Movement: Growing Youth-Led Civil Disobedience? – Analysis

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A recent groundswell of protests, sit-ins and boycotts agitating for greater democracy and freedom in Hong Kong have been led by youths and students. They highlight the difference in perceptions of ‘democracy’ between Beijing and pro-democracy groups in Hong Kong.

By Dylan Loh Ming Hui

Hong Kong’s college and school students began a week-long boycott of classes on 22 September 2014 in protest against Beijing’s position on electoral reforms. This classroom boycott gained the support of over 400 academic and non-academic staff. College staff have promised leniency for students who skipped classes and Hong Kong’s largest teachers’ union circulated a petition calling for strong support for the classroom boycott.

More significant were the youths behind the mobilisation and organisation of the classroom boycott. This latest public protest is just one instance in a series of civil disobedience movements initiated by the youths of Hong Kong – many whom are not even old enough to drive or drink.

Seed of fire

In an interview with CNN, Chinese dissident, Hu Jian, (himself a student activist during the 1989 Tiananmen protests) noted that “Mainland China is a tinderbox that’s been physically suppressed by the authorities, and Hong Kong is a seed of fire”. That fire has been sparked by the comparatively more liberal press, academe and political field in Hong Kong, with the emergence of highly motivated and zealous youths.

One prominent example is student activist leader – Joshua Wong, who was just 15 in 2011 when he started a movement called ‘Scholarism’ in opposition to a bid to introduce pro-China and pro-communist education materials in Hong Kong’s public schools. In 2012, ‘Scholarism’ successfully rallied an estimated 120,000 people into ‘occupying’ the Hong Kong government’s headquarters and generated enough pressure for the proposal to be withdrawn.

Wong is at the forefront of the classroom boycott movement. Indeed, at a time when the ‘Occupy Central’ movement group seems to have waned in support and been subjected to criticism for failing to act after Beijing refused to grant Hong Kong universal suffrage in August this year, the students have stepped up and taken over the mantle.

One of the co-founders of the Occupy Central campaign, Chan Kinman, lauded the student activists, saying he believed the student strike would be successful because young people were particularly annoyed by the blatant gesture of Beijing.

Youth-fuelled civil disobedience

There are several implications from the savvy student-led civil disobedience movements in Hong Kong. Firstly, Beijing is going to find it increasingly harder to use strong-armed tactics against protesters as the general pro-democracy movement evolves into a student-led and student-centred movement. Global Times, a nationalist Chinese newspaper, referred to the students as a radical pan-democratic group that “wants to take advantage of society’s tolerance of students, making use of them to illegally confront the central government”.

While the government in China will try to target individual leaders (Joshua Wong was identified in China’s Blue Paper on National Security), it does not have the unfettered autonomy to manoeuvre as it does in the mainland.

Secondly, just as students in Hong Kong drew inspiration from the student protests in Tiananmen Square, there is a fear, from the Chinese Government’s perspective, that youths in Macau and the mainland would similarly draw inspiration from the student’s political movement in Hong Kong.

Thirdly, the continuing endurance and success of student-led civil disobedience will disenchant the people of Hong Kong towards Beijing and vice versa. In fact, the students have already achieved one target of what they set out to do – global media coverage sympathetic to their cause. These student protest leaders (and their campaign) have been given extensive coverage by international media such as CNN, Forbes, Bloomberg and The Guardian. This has, in turn, raised the image of the youths as the vanguard of the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong.

Ball in Beijing’s court

Finally, the political savviness and mobilisation ability of protest politics is going to prove extremely problematic for Beijing. They have already proven their mettle with the successful staging of several civil disobedience movements and have displayed their organisational capabilities. More worrying for Beijing is the proactive diffusion of protest politics to other locales.

For instance, Scholarism’s founder Joshua Wong travelled to Taiwan to meet student leaders earlier this year in an effort to oppose a trade deal with China. The same group also hosted young activists from Macau in a proactive exchange of ideas and strategies.

Beijing has already stated its stand very clearly: that it has “comprehensive jurisdiction” over Hong Kong and it will not make concessions over universal suffrage. How Beijing deals with Hong Kong’s student activism, and more crucially, how China successfully (or unsuccessfully) controls and manages political consciousness of youths in the mainland would be a major factor in determining its own domestic stability.

Dylan Loh Ming Hui is a research analyst with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

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Hindu Group Upset At Barbie Depicted As Goddess Kali

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Hindus are upset with an upcoming art show opening in Buenos Aires (Argentina) on October 11 depicting iconic Barbie doll as their goddess Kali, calling it highly inappropriate.

Titled “Barbie, The Plastic Religion”, this exhibition plans to include 33 dolls of various religious figures produced by two Argentinean artists Marianela Perelli and Pool Paolini.

Hindu statesman Rajan Zed, in a statement in Nevada (USA) today, urged the artists to not include Barbie-ized Goddess Kali in the exhibition and remove it from their online postings and printed material as it trivialized the highly revered deity of Hinduism.

Zed, who is President of Universal Society of Hinduism, stressed that reimagining Hindu scriptures and deities for commercial or other agenda was not okay as it hurt the devotees. Goddess Kali and other Hindu deities were meant to be worshipped in temples and home shrines and not meant to be reduced to a Barbie character.

Rajan Zed pointed out that Hindus were for free speech as much as anybody else if not more. But faith was something sacred and attempts at belittling it hurt the devotees. Artists should be more sensitive while handling faith related subjects, Zed added.

Zed further said that Hindus welcomed art world to immerse in Hinduism but taking it seriously and respectfully and not for refashioning Hinduism concepts and symbols for personal agendas. Barbie-fication of Kali was simply improper, wrong and out of place.

Hinduism was the oldest and third largest religion of the world with about one billion adherents and a rich philosophical thought and it should not be taken lightly. No faith, larger or smaller, should be plundered, Rajan Zed noted.

Goddess Kali, who personifies Shakti or divine energy and considered the goddess of time and change, is widely worshipped in Hinduism. Moksh (liberation) is the ultimate goal of Hinduism.

Besides goddess Kali, this art show also reportedly includes figures from Christianity, Judaism, Buddhism and Argentinean folk religion. Barbie as goddess Kali on Facebook page shows it in a box with symbol of Om and “Jai Kali Ma” in Hindi printed on it.

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Saudi Arabia Says It’s Time To Get Rid Of Assad

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By Ghazanfar Ali Khan

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal on Thursday called on the international community to take “practical steps to weaken the Syrian regime,” while reaffirming the need for the political isolation of Bashar Assad.

Prince Saud also vowed to take deterrent measures to combat extremism and curb terror outfits, such as the Islamic State (IS) and Al-Qaeda, while urging international action to end the conflict in Syria.

Speaking on behalf of the Kingdom at the UN General Assembly meeting in New York, Prince Saud identified the conflicts in Syria and Iraq as an immediate and urgent priority.

“Saudi Arabia’s position was and is still in support of the moderate Syrian opposition and the fight against terrorist groups on Syrian territory, but our battle with terrorism must begin with the elimination of the injustice that produced it in the first place,” he asserted.

Prince Saud’s speech came at a time when US and Arab allies unleashed a round of airstrikes against IS militants in eastern Syria, targeting a dozen small oil refineries on Wednesday and Thursday.

US officials have confirmed that the latest round of strikes was designed to hit so-called “modular oil refineries” — essentially small, IS-built refineries that the terror group uses to fuel its vehicles and to fund its operations.

Saudi Arabia is playing a key role in the US-led operation in Syria and Iraq.

Pledging to be firm, yet always fair, Prince Saud told the UN General Assembly that the Syrian regime has “lost its legitimacy due to its inhumane practices and policies that have created a fertile environment for terrorism.”

“We therefore find no solution to this dilemma but to eradicate the regime from the political scene, along with those whose hands are tarnished with the blood of Syrians.”

He called for the protection of civilians, while referring to the unwillingness of the Syrian regime to reach a fair settlement to the crisis in the war-torn country.

“A lot of evidence indicates that the Syrian regime is the first stream to the emergence of IS,” he added.

Prince Saud made it clear that due to this, there is a need to end the conflict in Syria through a political settlement on the basis of the Geneva Declaration.

“In this sense, our support for the moderate Syrian opposition forces should not be limited to military support to counter terrorist groups on Syrian territory, but should include practical steps to weaken the Syrian regime…enhance its political isolation and encourage defections in the ranks of the civilian and military personnel from within the regime,” he noted.

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What Is Extent Of China-North Korean Alliance

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By Selcuk Colakoglu

Since the end of the Cold War, China has been North Korea’s the closest ally. Not only politically and militarily but also economically, China has been North Korea’s greatest assurance. If US-led military action has not been taken against North Korea up until today, it is because of China’s strong opposition thereto. China traditionally opts to maintain a low- profile foreign policy in non-Asian regions while assuming a more aggressive attitude only when proposed activities would affect its area of influence. China’s red line is drawn along maintaining the status quo in Taiwan and North Korea. Therefore, any attempt action that could be taken towards North Korea is doomed to fail despite without China’s approval is prone to doom. Therefore, any action that could be taken towards North Korea is doomed to fail without China’s approval.

The North Korea dilemma

On the one hand, North Korea poses a striking dilemma for China. China feels very uneasy that North Korea is becoming a political and economic burden. In fact, this uneasiness dates back to the Cold War when China was obliged to remain generous in the economic aid it provided to North Korea so as to limit Soviet Russia’s influence in the country. Nonetheless, China no longer wants to shoulder the burden of North Korea.

On the other hand, North Korea acts as a very effective buffer zone between China and the United States. It would be China’s nightmare to witness the collapse of North Korea and a subsequent invasion thereof by South Korea, an ally of the United States. Hence, North Korea’s survival has become a priority for China, regardless of its costs, even in the post-Cold War period.

Cracks in the Beijing-Pyongyang alliance

Even though North Korea depends on China on for energy, food and consumer goods, Beijing’s influence in Pyongyang is rather limited. Pyongyang, truth be told, isn’t afraid of taking bold steps since it is aware that it will not and cannot be abandoned by China. Case in point of such an attitude is the fact that the Six Party Talks, (the parties being North Korea, South Korea, China, the United States, Japan and Russia), which were established in order to come to a resolution on North Korea’s nuclear program, remain inconclusive. Negotiations have been unilaterally suspended by Pyongyang, despite Beijing’s efforts to prevent this. That North Korea possesses nuclear weapons in fact does not benefit China at all. China, already having its own nuclear weapons, sees no great advantage in the few nuclear warheads held by North Korea. On the contrary, it would harm China’s interests in the region if presence of North Korean nuclear weapons escalate tension in Northeast Asia. Therefore, China tries to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear program, by exerting its influence over Pyongyang. In this sense, China was wary of North Korea’s nuclear tests in 2006, 2007 and 2013 not from the perspective of national security but because these nuclear exercises might have provoked the United States to initiate military intervention in North Korea. It caused great disappointment in Beijing that North Korea underwent further nuclear testing in 2013 while at the same time China was trying its best to convince North Korea to return to the negotiation table. China wants North Korea to peacefully terminate its nuclear program and to integrate itself into the region.

A possible collapse of North Korea that is isolated from the international community and experiencing insurmountable economic problems will primarily affect the countries on its borders such as South Korea and China. Besides, China is already striving to better control immigration into its territory from North Korea. Aside from the risk of a collapse of North Korea’s economy, the possibility of the United States’ intervention due to North Korea’s nuclear program deeply disturbs China. In this respect, a cost-benefit analysis of China’s relationship with North Korea has been intensifying in Beijing. The execution of Jang Song-thaek, who was Kim Jong-un’s uncle-in- law, provoked China as he was one of the most important actors in promoting friendly relations with China. Many in Beijing have even questioned whether his execution was actually a message to China.

Obama’s Asia and North Korea policies

In an environment where China’s increasing disappointment and decreasing trust in North Korea becomes apparent, Barack Obama’s pivot to Asia policy has had positive repercussions for North Korea. Chinese leaders assume that the ultimate purpose of Obama’s Asian focus is to contain China. In recent years, the United States has begun to enhance its existing military relations with Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines, and has made significant steps towards rapprochement and political cooperation with India and Vietnam respectively. Under these circumstances, North Korea seems strategically indispensable to China.

Another enormous concern for Beijing is the possibility of the United States’ supporting Taiwan’s independence. Even though the Kuomintang Government in Taipei has been accelerating Taiwan’s economic and political integration with China since 2008, half of Taiwan’s population still supports independence. In this regard, China can use its relationship with North Korea as a bargaining chip to prevent the United States from recognizing Taiwanese independence.

Furthermore, China is experiencing a territorial dispute with Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea and also has disagreements with ASEAN countries, especially Vietnam and the Philippines, regarding rights to the continental shelf in the South China Sea and the ownership of the Spratly and Paracel islands. Countries involved in these disputes with China are expecting the United States to assume an active role in the matter on their sides. Here, however, China has the advantage of being able to use North Korea to render the United States more passive.

Ultimately, in order for China to adopt a more flexible policy towards North Korea, it is imperative that China and the United States agree upon Taiwan’s status and establish a framework for cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region. Otherwise, China is not going to abandon North Korea, no matter how badly Pyongyang may behave.

This article was first published in Analist Monthly Journal on September, 2014.

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On Relations Between Turkey And Egypt – OpEd

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By Yaşar Yakış

We need to make use of every opportunity that reveals itself in order to normalize political relations with Egypt. We can start doing so by choosing our words more carefully when addressing Egypt. Cabinet changes made after the August presidential election can provide Turkey a window of opportunity to make some new adjustments.

Turkey-Egypt relations have numerous aspects worth discussing in detail. In this short article of mine, I want to focus on three headlines which cannot be ruled out considering the current state of bilateral relations, namely our two nations’ cultural, economic, and political ties.

Cultural relations

When we are talking about Turkey’s relations with Egypt, we often underline our shared historical heritage of four centuries under Ottoman rule, yet our relations with Egypt are not limited to those associated with our common Ottoman past.

Turks’ presence in Egypt dates back to 868 AD, when Tolunoğlu Ahmed came to Egypt together with tens of thousands of Turks from Central Asia who would later help him build his own army upon being appointed as the governor of Egypt by the Abbasid Caliph. In the following eleven centuries up until 1952, it was Turks who ruled over Egypt. Due to such a deep-rooted historical background, which is either not known by many or at least not emphasized, when talking with almost all Egyptians one can observe mixed feelings about Turks and Turkey that range from admiration and envy to hatred and fear.

The first Turkish newspaper produced during the Ottoman era, Vaka-i Mısriye, was first published in Cairo in 1828. Also, Western classics were translated into Turkish for the first time in Cairo, rather than in İstanbul.

When formulating policies on Turkey-Egypt relations, we should not ignore the richness of our shared heritage but take into account its downsides as well as its upsides.

Economic relations

Turkey managed to build fairly strong economic ties with Egypt under toppled President Hosni Mubarak. An industrial park, exclusively for the use of Turkish businesses, was built at Borg al-Arab, located approximately40 km southwest of Alexandria. Over 250 Turkish companies made large investments in Egypt. Because these businesses provide employment for many Egyptians, the current military regime cannot be expected to shut them down without an excuse. Nonetheless, it can also be said that the regime will not show much tolerance towards Turkish companies in their country either.

Political relations

Egypt is the largest country in the Middle East with a population of 85 million. It is also the uncontested leader of the Arab world. The headquarters of the Arab League is located in Cairo, and its general secretary is usually elected from a pool of Egyptian candidates. In the Arab world, if Egypt is unwilling to do something, it cannot easily be done. Egypt is also the most important member of the African Union. It was one of the three leaders of the Non-Aligned Movement, the importance of which has been reduced under today’s circumstances. Egypt’s diplomacy is well-established and many of its intellectuals are world-renowned. It would be a tragically inaccurate assessment to regard Egypt as a country with decreased influence based solely on the arduous phase though which it is currently passing.

Turkey, under the rule of the AK Party, surmised that the transformation in the Middle East following the Arab Spring was the precursor of an era to be marked by stability under the dominance of the Muslim Brotherhood’s (MB) ideology. Such an assessment did not warrant criticism under the circumstances of the time, but the unique domestic dynamics of every single country touched by the Arab Spring meant that each set out on a different evolutionary path. While the MB stayed in power but had to take a step back in various fields in Tunisia, the state’s authority couldn’t evenbe asserted at all in Libya. In Egypt the MB was overthrown, and in Syria different factions within the MB began infighting.

Turkey was the country which voiced the loudest criticism of the process that culminated in Mohamed Morsi’s dismissal. It did the right thing when it unreservedly declared the elected president’s ousting as a military coup. But the military administration of General el-Sisi, who staged the coup, was uncomfortable with the vehement manner in which Turkey’s expressed its concerns and with the strong language used by the Turkish government when addressing the new regime in Cairo. As a result, the regime in Egypt declared the Turkish ambassador in Cairo persona non grata. People from my generation whose careers in diplomacy started in the 1960s can easily empathize with this attitude assumed by the Egyptian authorities because they were also obliged to argue in favor of military coups, which used to be a decadal occurrence in Turkey, in the face of foreigners.

If Turkey makes the sweeping assumption thatthe opinions of a single MB faction, the one with which it has direct contact, represent the entire MB’s consensus view, its assessment would be unsound. Moreover, considering the MB’s tendencies to be the shared tendencies of all Egyptian people would be an even more desperate stretch, because in Egypt there is a solid opposition, led by Coptic Christians, liberals, and seculars, which opposes the MB’s policies.

General Sisi’s junta, which toppled Morsi, considers the MB an illegal movement much like Turkey did the PKK 10-15 years ago. And just like the evolution of Turkey’s perception of and interaction with the PKK, in line with its aim of resolving the conflict in question Egypt will sooner or later make its peace with the MB through democratic means because the MB, as a popular movement, is deeply-rooted in the social fabric of Egypt. As democracy inevitably gains currency in Egypt, the MB’s power will be reflected in the polls in one way or another, but when this will happen is unclear. Nonetheless, allowing Turkey’s relations with Egypt to remain tense in the meantimewill only deteriorate the long-term prospects of Turkish diplomacy and interests in Egypt.

Additionally, Egypt regards Hamas in the same way Turkey regards PKK-affiliated groups in Northern Syria and the Qandil Mountains. If Turkey wants to help Hamas, doing that in coordination with Egypt will increase the likelihood of success.Without winning over Cairo, assistance provided to Hamas will be missing a vital component. And in the case that Egypt disregards us; our efforts to support Hamas will probably reach an impasse. It is commonly known that the Rafah Border Crossing between Gaza and Egypt is the only artery that allows for the sustainment of Gaza today. Cairo is well aware that it holds such unmatched leverage over Gaza and the countries wishing to support it. Therefore, we cannot neglect Egypt’s strong influence over Gaza and Hamas. Even if it didn’t hold such a trump card, Egypt would still be able to block any process throughout the Arab world which it deems undesirable.

What to do?

Turkey should design its foreign policy toward Egypt in line with two separate targets, one for the short-term, and the other for the long-term.

Its long-term target concerns the Middle East as a whole, including Egypt.

Despite our shared, deep-rooted history with the region, Turkey is less familiar with the Middle Eastthan even many Western countries. Turkey is not well-equipped to read and gauge developments in Egypt and throughout the region, therefore it observes and follows developments in the Middle East through Western sources, and its assessments are made based on information prepared and processed by Westerners. Furthermore, Ankara runs into difficulties in seeing the big picture when it tries to directly gather information from fieldwork because its human capital is insufficient. The number of Turkish personnel who have full command of Arabic is much less than the number of their Western counterparts. By and large, Turkish universities lack research centers for Arabic studies. Think-tanks and similar institutions in our country are also largely incapable of going into greater depth on subjects concerning the Middle East. These think-tanks don’t have permanent offices in Cairo or other Middle Eastern capitols. To quote an article written several years ago by CIA Analyst Graham Fuller, “the Turkish foreign service almost prides itself on not training any experts who know Arabic”. Even though we take cognizance of the issue now, career employees working for the Foreign Ministry are still not sufficiently encouraged to study Arabic when compared with the support their Western colleagues receive therefor from their respective governments.

In order to rectify our deficiency in this regard in the long-term, it would be fitting for us to generate consistent and realistic policies that will be implemented as soon as possible.

In the short-run, we need to make use of every opportunity that reveals itself in order to mend our political ties with Egypt.We can start doing so by choosing our words more carefully when addressing Egypt. Cabinet changes made after the August presidential election can provide Turkey a window of opportunity to make some new adjustments. At this current juncture, the hardest task before us is providing an honest answer to the question, “did we do anything wrong in our actions until now?”

We also need to try to understand the expectations and demands of social segments of Egypt other than the MB’s grassroots. Those expectations and demandsmay not be in line with Ankara’s desires and vision, but it isn’t up to Turkey to criticize and judge the Egyptian people based on what they want.

Today, Turkey does not have ambassadors in three major Middle Eastern capitals: Cairo, Damascus, and Tel-Aviv. This situation makes it harder for Turkey to play an active role in the restructuring phase through which the Middle East is currently passing. Turkey needs to take the initiative in putting an end to this dismal state of affairs. Diplomacy is definitely a sensitive craft, and adeptness is required precisely at times like these.

(Yaşar Yakış is the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey, and former Ambassador to Egypt.)

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A Rational Look At Gold – OpEd

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By Michael Lombardi

The fundamentals that drive gold prices higher are in full force and improving. Central banks are buying more of the precious metal (to add to their reserves), while countries that are known to be big consumers of gold bullion post increased demand.

According to the India Bullion & Jewellers’ Association, India’s monthly gold bullion imports are expected to rise by as much as 50% in the coming few months—in the range of 70 tonnes to 75 tonnes per month compared to an average of 50 tonnes to 60 tonnes now. (Source: Reuters, September 18, 2014.) This is mainly due to the festival/wedding season fast approaching in India.

If India continues to import 70 tonnes of gold bullion each month, then the total imports just to India will be 31% of all world gold mine production (based on 2,700 tons in annual mine production).

India used to be the biggest importer of gold bullion until China took over as the biggest importer of the precious metal two years ago. And demand for gold in China remains strong as well.

But while demand for the precious metal is rising, production is declining.

In the first five months of 2014, U.S. mine production was 85,400 kilograms (kg), down four percent from the 89,200 kg of gold bullion produced in the first five months of 2013. (Source: U.S. Geological Survey, last accessed September 22, 2014.) As I have written before, lower gold prices have caused gold companies to close mines where production made sense at $1,600 an ounce gold, but not at $1,200 an ounce gold.

While I won’t delve into all the talk on Internet financial sites about gold prices being manipulated, I continue to stress the fundamental demand/supply situation for the precious metal favors higher prices.

I view the decline in gold bullion prices as a buying opportunity. Over the past few weeks, it may seem that gold bullion prices have gotten weaker, but that is only if you look at gold bullion in U.S. dollars. Look at gold bullion in euros or Canadian dollars (or almost any other currency for that matter), and you will quickly see gold prices are much higher outside the U.S. than in the U.S. The greenback has experienced a strong rally over the past two months as the Fed’s talk of higher interest rates (and the eurozone’s lowering of them) has pushed the U.S. dollar higher.

As far as I’m concerned, shares of quality gold mining companies are selling at bargain prices. They offer a great opportunity for contrarian, buy-low investors.

This article A Rational Look at Gold was originally posted at Profit Confidential

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NASA Expands Commercial Space Program

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On the heels of awarding groundbreaking contracts to U.S. commercial space companies to ferry American astronauts to the International Space Station, NASA has released a request for proposals (RFP) for the next round of contracts for private-sector companies to deliver experiments and supplies to the orbiting laboratory.

Under the Commercial Resupply Services 2 RFP, NASA intends to award contracts with one or more companies for six or more flights per contract. As with current resupply flights, these missions would launch from U.S. spaceports, and the contracted services would include logistical and research cargo delivery and return to and from the space station through fiscal year 2020, with the option to purchase additional launches through 2024.

Earlier this year, the Obama Administration decided to extend the life of the International Space Station until at least 2024.

The ability to continue commercial deliveries to the station is critical to continuing the use of the station as a platform for discovery that improves life on Earth, expands the commercial use of low-Earth orbit, and helps advance America’s journey to Mars through high-quality scientific research and technology development.

“The International Space Station is vital to the United States’ exploration efforts, a laboratory in orbit where we can work off the Earth, for the Earth,” said William Gerstenmaier, associate administrator for Human Exploration and Operations and NASA Headquarters. “To push beyond low-Earth orbit and on to Mars, we rely on American industry to keep the station supplied through cargo deliveries.”

This RFP is open to companies able to demonstrate safe, reliable launch and rendezvous capabilities with the station. The contract will fulfill NASA’s need to procure cargo delivery services for pressurized and unpressurized cargo delivery, disposal, return, or any combination, to the space station using U.S. commercial carriers after the initial Commercial Resupply Service contracts conclude.

The goal of the RFP is to foster a full and open competition that provides the most complete set of services, providing the best value to American taxpayers. Proposals are due Nov. 14. The awarded contracts will be firm-fixed price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite quantity. NASA anticipates making a selection in May 2015.

A little more than one year after the Space Shuttle program ended in 2011, NASA returned Space Station cargo resupply missions to the U.S. under two contracts — one with Orbital Sciences Corp. of Dulles, Virginia, and one with Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) of Hawthorne, California. At the time of award, NASA ordered eight flights valued at about $1.9 billion from Orbital and 12 flights valued at about $1.6 billion from SpaceX through December 2016. SpaceX has completed three of the contracted delivery missions with a fourth currently underway, and Orbital has completed two.

On Sept. 16, NASA announced U.S. astronauts once again will travel to and from the International Space Station from the United States on American spacecraft under groundbreaking commercial contracts. The agency unveiled its selection of Boeing and SpaceX to transport U.S. crews to and from the space station using their CST-100 and Crew Dragon spacecraft, respectively, with a goal of ending the nation’s sole reliance on Russia in 2017.

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Sri Lanka: Moving Away From Bottom-Trawling Still Way Out For TN Fishers? – Analysis

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By N Sathiya Moorthy

The much-publicised first round of the officials-level talks on resolving the India-Sri Lanka fishing issue has ended up as a non-starter. However, hopes still cannot be ruled out for a possible, if not early, solution.

Under the evolved and existing circumstances, a solution should mainly involve governments in India – those in Tamil Nadu and at the Centre — demonstrating on the ground, their medium and long-term intent to encourage southern coastal fishers to take to deep-sea fishing in a big way. In turn, both the Sri Lankan Government and the fishers in the Tamil-exclusive Northern Province will have to concede that their Indian counterparts will require reasonable time for effecting that ’conversion’ — from banned trawler fishing, to non-interventionist deep-sea fishing, and act accordingly.

For the first-time, the bilateral, official-level talks were headed on either side by Fisheries Department officials. For historic reasons, linked to the arrest-and-release of TN fishers by Sri Lanka, and later on substantive issues relating to the IMBL, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) had remained the nodal-point for such negotiations in both countries. It remained thus even when both countries had acknowledged it to be a ’livelihood issue’ and also began working on a MoU for bilateral cooperation in fisheries development in the shared Palk Strait and Gulf of Mannar in particular. There however exists an India-Sri Lanka Joint Working Group (JWG), also of officials. It met last in Colombo in January 2012. In the context of the newer officials’ forum, the JWG’s role may have to be reviewed / redefined.

Without authority?

Formed at the instance of Sri Lankan Fisheries Minister Rajitha Senaratne, the officials’ forum (if it could be called so) was aimed at following up on two rounds of fishers’ negotiations at Chennai (January) and Colombo (May). With Sri Lanka remaining obstinate and no progress made at the fishers’ negotiations, it was unclear from the very beginning as to what the officials at the Delhi talks could achieve, in the absence of clear-cut political directives, particularly in the case of Sri Lanka.

Going by media reports, the Sri Lankan delegation at the Delhi talks on 29 August came without much authority to decide upon anything. Given the way the Executive Presidency system has worked in the country for close to four decades, and the way the political leadership at all levels retain much of the decision-making powers, it could not have been otherwise. The question thus arises if the national-level ministers in charge of Fisheries from the two countries should meet early on, and take it up to the level of the respective Heads of Government, if it has to be that way.

Proof of the pudding

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. There is nothing to show that the deep-sea conversion project in Tamil Nadu is working to any targets or deadlines after the incumbent Government of Chief Minister Jayalalithaa announced 25 percent subsidy for such conversion after returning to power in 2011 – and doubled it in Budget-2014. Only with emerging proof of such ’conversion’ may the Sri Lankan Government and its northern Tamil fishers consider interim concessions with confidence. Apart from bureaucratic delays down to the last official, the tentative nature of the State Government’s proposal owe to intermittent suggestions for facilitating/funding outright purchase of deep-sea vessels without ’conversion’. This could involve larger funding than Rs 1500 crores sought by the Chief Minister in a memorandum personally handed to Prime Minister Narendra Modi after his assuming office in May.

In the interim, the Sri Lankan Government will need to do more, if it’s serious about finding a negotiated settlement. Continuing arrests of Indian fishers without giving the governments in India, time for smooth transition away from the destructive and banned practice of bottom-trawling will be counter-productive. Ever since the TN Government started talking about deep-sea fishing, intermittent arrests of fishers and continuing detention of boats even when they are freed (almost always at the instance of Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa) have only helped to keep the political and livelihood issues alive in Tamil Nadu in particular.

Maritime security and EEZ

Customary arguments based on ’historic waters’ and ’traditional rights’, as has been cited by successive governments in Tamil Nadu after the signing of the IMBL Pacts of 1974 and 1976, post-UNCLOS (UN Convention on the Laws of the Seas), has often unnerved Sri Lanka. Apart from security concerns linked to apprehensions of LTTE’s ’Sea Tigers’ revival, seeking to undo the ’Kachchativu Pact’, if the 1974 agreement could be called so, also challenges Sri Lanka’s sovereignty, in the nation’s perspective. The creation first, and the continuing negotiations now on the expansion of EEZ for nations have added a new dimension to the continuing Tamil Nadu discourse on ’historic waters’, ’traditional rights’, and also the ’Katchchativu issue’.

Even without ’Sea Tigers’ revival in one form or the other and where the High Security Zones (HSZ) remain years after the war, both Sri Lanka and India cannot ignore post-26/11 threats of maritime terrorism. For India, cooperating with the southern Sri Lankan island-neighbour on maritime and maritime security issues against non-State and non-territorial State players is thus not an option. It is a necessity – as much for the Government of Tamil Nadu as for the Government of India. The more recent Al-Qaeda threat of forming an India branch, Colombo-based Pakistani ISI attempts at anti-India terrorism and the arrest of the latter’s operatives in Tamil Nadu over the past weeks and months all indicative of the need.

New signals

There may be still light at the end of the tunnel, some new signals, on the fishing issue. Terrorism-threats of every kind underscores the need for monitored fishing in nearby waters, if it could be helped – or encouraging fishers to go deep sea. Requirements of fishing-ban laws in Sri Lanka, and the proven destruction of marine resources and the anxieties of the Tamil fishers of Sri Lanka’s Northern Province all are indicative of the ’livelihood issue’ taking a tail-spin.

Sri Lanka can take heart that the two Benches of the Madras High Court and the Supreme Court of India have not taken kindly to TN fishers crossing the IMBL. Recently, the Supreme Court observed that the fishers’ problem and the ’Katchchativu issue’ were bilateral in nature, to be taken up at the political and diplomatic levels – and not through courts. At the Supreme Court, the Government of India lawyer had earlier submitted that there was no way of taking back Katchchativu without ’going to war’. The court practically ruled out that option, too.

It still can cut both ways. The Centre might want to take heart in the court’s observations. But the TN Government, polity and fishers might pressure the Government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi even more for sending out a “firm, clear and unequivocal message’ to Sri Lanka on fishers’ arrests. That the Chief Minister’s missive came after the Supreme Court’s observations – for resolving the issue through political and diplomatic ways — should not be lost sight of, either.

At the same time, Tamil Nadu’s fishers, polity and Government will have to consider the much-feared and equally-delayed signals from their fisher-brethren in Sri Lanka’s Tamil-majority Northern Province. For the second time in as many months, the ’Ilankai Tamizharasu Katchi’ (ITAK, better known as ’Federal Party’) has called for stopping Indian trawler-fishing in their waters. That they touched upon ’poaching’ by southern Sinhala fishers in their traditional waters does not help matters for TN counterparts. It was one of the 15 points in the political resolution passed at the 15th national conference of the ITAK, the dominant partner in the 10-month-old elected, coalition TNA Government of Chief Minister, Justice C V Wigneswaran.

Apart from the Governments of Sri Lanka, and those concerned in India, the ITAK resolution wanted the NPC administration (with a Fisheries Minister to call its own) involved in negotiations, and an early solution found to end the loss of fishing, fish and fisheries resources of the Northern Tamil fishers. Earlier and outside of the ITAK, M K Shivajilingam, the maverick TNA member of the Northern Provincial Council (NPC), who is a persona non grata in India for other reasons, had wanted trawling rights for northern fishers, as Indian counterparts were anyway adopting the banned practice in their waters, without any space or let-up!

(The writer is a Senior Research Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Chennai Chapter).

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Kashmir’s Killing Floods Playground For Journalists – OpEd

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Ferocious floods recently hit Kashmir through continuous rains spread over a period of seven days that sequentially inundated South, Central and North Kashmir. Fourteen breaches on the bunds of Jhelum River filled the areas starting from Pantha Chowk to Bemina with areas such as Batwara, Indra Nagar, Sanwar, Rajbag, Jawahar Nagar, Dal gate, LalChowk, Press Colony, Gogji Bag and so on. Civil administration was so foxed and paralyzed that except for holding meetings, the Chief Minister and his government handed over the situation to Army and other rescue agencies while personally acting as a volunteer. Besides the opposition brigade had not much role to play except creating space for themselves.

Having said that, the Kashmir Floods became a perfect narrative for a typical television story. Visuals to drive anyone in pain and dismay were shown continuously. So literally September 4, onwards here it was – Kashmir Floods becoming the Play Ground for Delhi Breed of Journalists. The who’s Who of all Television Channels was desperate to be seen in Srinagar at least.

Unfortunately, the local media was itself submerged under the deluge – some had printing press under water, some had lost entire office set up, while others had their houses washed away. This vacuum was filled but so brutally by a large number of media representatives from Delhi. From non-entities to most prominent, from raw reporters to absolute professionals, from interest groups to unbiased, there were all shades of reporters and journalists in the play field of Kashmir floods, some lived up to the expectations of the name (individual or channel identity) while some got exposed. While most played dirty and maverick, there were few who came to excel in their field and do a little good to the people. These few were daring, wide spread, deep penetration, extensive outreach and beyond doubts the news breakers.

As against the usual, some famous channels were missing the scene where the action was. Few reporters of such channels, who rushed in, remained confined to the airport, like most others, seeing what Air Force or Army wanted them to see. They were either too scared to venture out or they thought that Kashmir is all about that part of Srinagar where they could get some guest rooms and park their OB Vans and get phone connectivity. Even the reporters had ventured in who had no knowledge of geography and demography of Kashmir, what to talk of sensitivities of the people.

I remembered a beautiful article ‘how green is the valley’ by my revered friend Shujaat Bukhari two years ago that appeared in prestigious news laundry where he talks about that valley though saw a brutal bloodshed and devastation since turmoil set in but remained green for just one community and that is so called journalists. She was little lost and must have returned back to Delhi sooner than others. A Journalist friend from a prestigious channel did some professional pieces and survived the intra organizational chaos that was pervading in the others besides doing what his channel expected of him “Fancy Chopper Reporting” with a perfect sense of adventurism like his other peers. A famous channel had flooded Srinagar with numerous reporters, with their group editor holding the fort for almost three days. Did those extensive discussions do any good the despair and deluge, I am unsure? Only they know the best.

Whether it was the top brass journalists, they all remained airport bound, enjoying the hospitality of Army and Air Force. Loyal to the core, they played to the gallery and reported as if they were not on the pay role of Army, Air Force and NDRF. Alone a journalist’s platoon needed 11 guest rooms, leaving others out in the open. This did cause a bad blood among others. There is no doubt that Army and Air Force worked wonderfully well, but had these reporters de-planed for a while, taken the cameras to the scenes other than the fancy food droppings and tried to go where the real pain lied, they would have helped Kashmir manifold. But most of them restricted themselves to portraying fake heroism of rescue agencies. Even their discussions in the evening could have been centered on where the angels needed to tread, co-opted participants who had penetrated the unreachable areas and informed the doers about what they didn’t know. Seeing the popularity of their channels, biggest contribution could have been by bringing out the efforts of volunteers, improvisations made for evacuation from narrow lanes, and so on.

Contrary to its reputation, Door Darshan (DD News) did well to launch reporters in Jammu as well as Kashmir. Some of them were Neeraj Singh, Dipanshu Goel, Nandita Dagar and Channels popular face Sakal Bhatt. Ones in Kashmir were Dipanshu Goel, Nandita Dagar and Sakal Bhatt. One that seemed promising, professional and daring was Sakal Bhatt. She was where the action was and would daily trek to the Shankaracharya Hill to promptly uplink her report that kept DD Kashir going. By then DD Srinagar was all submerged and what remained were two DSNG Vans stationed at Shankaryacharya hill.

The First to get CM and Mehbooba Mufti as well as Army Chief on board answerable on issues what mattered the most by then Was DD NEWS. Also the first channel to get access to the most inundated North and South Kashmir like Anantnag and Manasbal was DD News for a change.

Did anyone talk about the entire team including ten brave hearts, the Engineers of Doordarshan which included two women manning the uplink station at Shankaracharya in the most difficult situations, mental and physical? How they were deftly trying to savior the image of DD Kashir under extremely trying conditions (no guest rooms like others, no toilets, and so on but just a dingy CRPF make shift camp meant for few shared by at least 25).

The attack on DD News team on Gupkar Road became an ugly incident which by then turned into a volatile den with simmering anger amongst locals for Media and state government and there were equally disturbing reports coming from in around Airport area where Private Media was parked.

However, in this saga of bravado of Sakal and her team got punctuated followed by her abrupt disappearance. Thanks to the unnecessary controversy stirred totally out of context to placate her out of scene of reporting. Idea is not to question a particular reporter; it is the trend in reporting that matters most. So again we saw Doordarshan going back to its perception of being “Sarkari”.

Another class of journalists was visible as per their channel’s needs but not as per what Kashmir needed or deserved. It was a unique opportunity to leave behind the legacies of reporting for young journalists of Kashmir and the re-start point for the flood battered media houses. When some day, professionals with greater caliber than me will sit to analyze the role played by electronic media during floods in Kashmir, many more coffins in the closets of journalists who played in this arena, will come out. However, more than the individuals, it was the media houses themselves who should have chosen well to play. Disaster in Kashmir was different in many ways from the rest of the country and it deserved to be treated better but it was not.

Reading the reports in newspapers, a few more men who served their organizations with their conscience and were commonly faced the dangers of tempers for their uncompromising and committed journalistic behavior was Pranav Kulkarni and Bashrat from Indian Express, Zia Haq from Hindustan Times and Shujaat Bukhari of Rising Kasmir. While Basharat was locally based and despite himself facing the wrath of floods, never stopped reporting, the other three worked day and night to bring the truths and emotions from the core of the hearts and minds. Shujaat Bukharibeyong his profession engaged in full time rescue operation. Number of stories that two young and promising journalists wrote is unimaginable. Though what they wrote was just five percent of the total research material created by them, it was a treat to see the future of print media journalism shaping amid the floods of Kashmir.

Yes it is true that Media was attacked and bad mouthed and there were some unreported incidents which could have had spiraling repercussions.

While everything may be fair in love and war, journalism covering a disaster has different paradigms and different set of rules. Media being a significant institution too has a social and ethical responsibility and it must never seek luxury comforts at such critical moments or take sides or represent agencies or manipulate the truth. The fact remains that while army and its work was highly glorified, other agencies too did well especially local volunteers but most of the media reflected a clear bias in showing the reality on the ground.

You may achieve a glory or bliss for a day or a month, but through unfair means, you are buying sadness for the journalistic world.

[This article originally appeared in Pointblank7 and Kashmir Times where the author writes as a guest Columnist].

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Reducing Trade Costs Key For Increasing Jobs And Reducing Poverty

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Trade facilitation measures as a critical component for ensuring inclusive development in Asia and Pacific, was the key focus of discussions at the Asia-Pacific Trade Facilitation Forum (APTFF) which ended in Bangkok today.

Organized by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), in partnership with the Thailand Ministry of Commerce, the forum included Asia-Pacific policymakers, government officials, trade facilitation service providers, international organizations and development agencies from more than 35 countries.

Talks centred on the World Trade Organization (WTO) trade facilitation agreement and implications for the region, as well as sessions on agricultural trade facilitation, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), trade facilitation and inter-agency coordination for trade facilitation.

Dr. Ravi Ratnayake, Director of ESCAP’s Trade and Investment Division explained that whilst many countries in the Asia-Pacific region were top performers in terms of connectivity to international supply chains, intra-regional trade remains a challenge due to high trade costs between Asian subregions.

“Implementing strategic trade facilitation measures can promote economic growth and inclusive development by improving the access to more actors to international supply chains,” Dr. Ratnayake said, also congratulating Thailand on its trade facilitation performance, and pointing out that Thailand was among the top ten Asian countries in terms of international supply chain connectivity and among the top five Asian countries in terms of trade facilitation and paperless trade implementation.

Mr. Arjun Goswami, Director of ADB’s Office of Economic Regional Integration noted that the link between trade and economic growth is well-established and Asian economies have excelled in applying trade-led economic growth. Nevertheless, he said that poverty and widening inequality continue to be key issues within countries and across borders. While trade facilitation has an increasingly important role to play in addressing this, Mr. Goswami stressed the importance of cooperation and collaboration.

Within ASEAN, Thailand has been pushing for new drivers of common economic growth, Ms. Chutima Bunyapraphasara, Permanent Secretary of the Thai Ministry of Commerce explained, though unfavorable trade regulation and inadequate cooperation to harmonize customs are some of the barriers impeding economic and trade development in the Asia-Pacific region.

The forum also saw the launch of a key ADB-ESCAP publication, ‘Towards a National Integrated and Sustainable Trade and Transport Facilitation Monitoring Mechanism’, which aims to enable countries to establish a sustainable and affordable system to monitor trade facilitation on a regular basis. In this process, the bottlenecks identified would become essential input to formulate and prioritize recommendations for advancing trade facilitation.

Key recommendations developed during the forum included: improving trade facilitation in Asia and the Pacific through simplifying, harmonizing, standardizing and monitoring trade processes; improving information and communication technologies (ICT), and gaining sustainable commitment from collaborative private and public sector stakeholders. Participants underscored that inclusive and competitive trade relied on the dependability, efficiency and effectiveness of trade networks. Cutting down unproductive and complicated aspects of trade is crucial for the region.

The post Reducing Trade Costs Key For Increasing Jobs And Reducing Poverty appeared first on Eurasia Review.

A Blatant Violation Of NPT – OpEd

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By Yusra Mushtaq

Amongst the various accords of Arms Control and Disarmament, the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has widely been adhered to by most of the countries, which gives testament to the worth of this treaty. Nevertheless, it also has been the fate of being violated again and again by its own signatory members — most recently by Australia which signed a uranium deal with India, a de-facto, but non-signatory state. Previously, the US a big proponent of NPT, paved the way for this kind of illegal nuclear cooperation with the non-NPT state of India by signing a deal back in 2005. The blatant violation of NPT left no room for India to sign this treaty because it already enjoys full benefits as if it were a NPT member state without any restricted conditions.

Largely based on the three pillars of Non-Proliferation, Disarmament and Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy, the NPT serves as a central bargain. “The NPT non-nuclear-weapon states agree never to acquire nuclear weapons and the NPT nuclear-weapon states in exchange agrees to share the benefits of peaceful nuclear technology and to pursue nuclear disarmament aimed at the ultimate elimination of their nuclear arsenals”. There are 190 states which have joined the NPT club. It is extended for indefinite period of time which reflects its obligatory status. In order to make Global Nuclear Non Proliferation and NPT particularly more fruitful, many substantive initiatives have been taken. They are dominated by export controls regime like Nuclear Suppliers Group and enhanced verification measures of IAEA Additional Protocols. The sole aim of all efforts is to end every possible mean to acquire nuclear weapons. Within this context, success becomes a far off cry as NPT is in a fix between global and national interests of respective states.

Australia signed a deal to sell uranium to India to coin the natural blessing of one third of world’s uranium reserves for the sake of national interests. It is the first non-NPT signatory nation with whom Australia has inked a nuclear deal. Australia is the tenth country in the world that has signed a nuclear deal with India. Both the states are joining hands happily while violating the norms of NPT so blatantly. There is a sheer absence of handwringing editorials at the international news desks. Between the celebrations of this so-called triumph, no one is talking of the sanctity of international arms treaties.

Just a few years back, Australia continually refused India uranium for export as it had not signed NPT. But in 2011, the Australian Prime Minister came up with a desire to allow exports to India,  and Australia upturned its long standing ban on exporting uranium to Non-NPT India. A statement had been made that, “We should take a decision in the national interest, a decision about strengthening our strategic partnership with India in this the Asian century.” Of course with this undertaking that India will not use Australian uranium for its nuclear weapons. But what about the use of the surplus of left over uranium in India after exported uranium has been consumed for civilian purposes? Quite vividly, Australia chose national interests over global ones to have an enhanced strategic partnership with the Asian powerhouse of India.

The deep silence of world over continued NPT violations is not unusual to be noticed. The US agreed to violate the same NPT a few years ago by sharing nuclear technology with India in exchange for buying India’s vote against Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) platform. US congressional opposition disappeared after this. The US claimed that this deal would strictly revolve around the non-military nuclear usage, but it certainly lowered the pressure on resources to be used for non-civilian use in India.

The innate goal of Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty is to make it almost impossible for states to go for nuclear weapons development. Leo Tolstoy has very aptly stated in his book War and Peace that ‘Writing Laws is easy, but governing is difficult.’

Article Four gives ‘inalienable rights to every non-nuclear weapon state’ to pursue nuclear energy for power generation. In this case, India is neither a member of NPT nor a Non-Nuclear Weapon State. These kinds of nuclear cooperation agreements, especially by NPT member states with a Non-NPT state India would be instrumental towards nuclear proliferation and question the liability of a treaty. Despite setting a stage for adherence, the very members showed a path of violation. There exits not a single privilege in NPT that allows signatories to make such exemptions

This open violation is justified as India being an exceptional case. Ironically, if it’s a matter of exemptions; why is Pakistan left far behind from these privileges? Pakistan too became a Defacto nuclear weapon state simultaneously with India and shares certain equal nuclear traits. It’s simply nothing more than an exposed discriminatory approach towards Pakistan by the international community.

For India, NPT merely hatches a club of ‘nuclear haves and have-nots.’ It was stated by Indian External Affairs Minister in 2007, ‘If India did not sign the NPT, it is not because of its lack of commitment for non-proliferation, but because we consider NPT as a flawed treaty and it did not recognize the need for universal, non-discriminatory verification and treatment.”

This is an irony forthe  Global Non Proliferation Regime that there are high voices for NPT to be adhered to, but at the same time its own vocal members have optimized national interests over the security of the whole globe. All are quiet on the sheer violence on this international violation of a treaty because it’s a matter of great powers vested national interests with a de facto state. For this Lao Tzu, a Chinese philosopher stated; “The more laws and order are made prominent, the more thieves and robbers there will be.”

Yusra Mushtaq is a scholar on the issues of defense and security.

The post A Blatant Violation Of NPT – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

North Korea Accumulates More Missile Capabilities – Analysis

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The fragile security situation is heading towards another tailspin as news start pouring in that North Korea is developing new missiles capable of carrying tactical nuclear warheads. The Korea daily, JongAng Ilbo reported on 22 September 2014 that North Korea has performed a series of test-firings of new short-range missiles since 14 August. According to the report, it was for the first time the government detected Pyongyang developing a tactical nuclear missile. Designated as KN-10, the new ground-to-ground missiles are believed to be designed to carry nuclear payloads. The government’s conclusion was based on the speeds and altitudes of the missiles.

However, South Korea’s Defense Ministry denied the report, saying that military intelligence did not testify that the test-fired missiles can carry tactical nuclear warheads. While strategic nuclear weapons are designed to be used to destroy large targets such as cities and factories, tactical nuclear weapons are intended to be used on a battlefield. They are developed by placing a relatively smaller nuclear payload on a short-range missile to destroy a military target.

The new missiles are believed to have a range of about 200 kilometers (124 miles), which is similar to their existing 300-milimeter-caliber multiple rocket launcher systems. North Korea is already having artilleries with similar ranges but it wants a more powerful weapon and therefore developing the new missiles. The 300-milimeter artillery rockets are already capable of hitting major military installations in the South, including Pyeongtaek, where the US military’s main base will be relocated in 2016. The North, however, is going after a more powerful weapon.

Another reason that could be driving the North to develop the new weapons system is the perennial economic crisis. Because of its economic hardships, its capacity to win a conventional arms race remains limited and therefore is developing a tactical short-range missile as it has reached the final stage of miniaturization of a nuclear warhead. KN-10 missiles are modified versions of the Soviet Union’s SS-21 ground-to-ground missiles, and the South will fall into the nuclear range of the North if it manages to succeed in the miniaturization of nuclear weapons.

The new missiles are also fired from transporter erector launchers, or mobile launching pads, and use solid fuel. Those characteristics make it hard for the system to be detected in advance, posing a new threat to South Korea. Even without tactical nuclear warheads, the new missiles will have destructive power that is far stronger than the multiple rocket launcher systems. This would force South Korea’s military to change its strategy to counter them.

The new tactical missile being developed since 2010, besides having a range of about 200 kilometers, is also capable of carrying a warhead of up to 500 kilograms. Though the 300-milimeter artillery rockets developed in the late 2000s have similar range, they are capable of carrying up to 100 kilograms of payload only. Nuclear warheads are far heavier. While the 300-milimeter multiple rocket launcher system is guided by a Russian satellite, the method of guidance for the new tactical missile remains unknown. North Korea is using Russian technologies to develop the new missile. If true, in addition to their nuclear capabilities, the new missiles can carry a massive amount of explosives.

North built the multiple rocket launcher system based on Chinese technologies, which is capable of launching multiple rockets simultaneously, while carrying relatively lighter payloads of explosives. Pyongyang unveiled its new multiple rocket launcher system in May 2013 and made the new tactical missile public on 14 August 2014. As per the assessment made by US intelligence, Pyongyang already possesses plutonium warheads and has the technology capable of building uranium warheads. If it succeeds to miniaturize nuclear weapons to put atop a missile, its capability to strike at targets would be lethal. Through three nuclear tests since 2006, the North has managed to take steps closer to miniaturization to a certain degree and has acquired the technology to build nuclear weapon. With efforts by regional powers having failed to bring the North back to the negotiating table, South Korea now faces a situation when the North will be able to operationally deploy missile with a nuclear warhead within a short period of time. At the same time, even while it has stepped-up efforts to develop the new missiles, Pyongyang too is trying to expand its production of weapon-grade plutonium and uranium.

In another report in the same paper a day later, the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff told the paper that South Korea detected an object, believed to be related to a vertical launcher that allows the North to launch a ballistic missile from a submarine. A North Korean submarine-launched ballistic missile program is considered one of the worst security nightmares for the US as it would enable Pyongyang to attack not only US bases in the Pacific but also parts of the US mainland. Given Pyongyang’s penchant for incessant weapon up-gradation programs and activities, the possibility of the North succeeding to equip its submarines with ballistic missiles is not unthinkable. Acquiring multiple deterrent capabilities has been Pyongyang’s main means of survival.

It is believed that the North probably based its system on the Soviet-built R-27 submarine-launched ballistic missile. Developed in 1967, the R-27 has a range of 2,400 to 4,000 kilometers (1491 to 2485 miles). If the North launches a missile from the Yellow Sea, it could reach US bases in Okinawa, Japan and even Guam. The threat is serious because it is difficult to detect a submarine by military satellite or drone. If a North Korea submarine were to reach the waters north of Sakhalin Island and launched a missile, it could hit a target in Alaska. A submarine-launched ballistic missile capability would also challenge the South Korean military’s efforts to complete the “Kill Chain”, a pre-emptive missile destruction system targeting the source of the missiles. By succeeding to operationally deploy submarine-launched ballistic missiles, North Korea would have secured another powerful asymmetrical capability in addition to nuclear arms.

Earlier, South Korea denied North’s claim that it was developing a submarine-launched ballistic missile system. It felt that a ballistic missile can only be carried by a submarine larger than a Golf-class, weighing up to 3,500 tons. Since North Korea was believed to have only smaller Romeo-class submarines, weighing up to 1,800-tons, technical difficulties would hinder the submarine to be equipped with a vertical launch system, it was reasoned.

Confusions continue to linger in the absence of any authentic information. Some reports inform us that most of the submarines that the North is building these days are smaller than 1,000 tons either for infiltration or landing. But according to 1994 Jane’s Fighting Ships report, North Korea purchased 40 retired submarines, including Golf-class and Romeo-class models from Russia. Since USSR-built Golf-class submarine is capable of carrying a vertical launcher for three ballistic missiles and if North Korea imported some from Russia of this category, then it is believable that North Korea has now developed the capability to launch ballistic missiles from its submarines. It remains unclear what would be the countermeasures by the US and South Korea to this new prowess acquired by the North.

Dr. Panda is The Japan Foundation Fellow at Reitaku University, Chiba Prefecture, JAPAN. E-mail: rajaram.panda@gmail.com

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The Fatwa From Muzffarnagar: Urgent Need To Review 1937 Act – OpEd

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By R. Upadhyay

The news (September, 2014) of repeated rape of a young Muslim woman from Muzaffarnagar in Uttar Pradesh allegedly by her father-in-law at gun point resulting in her impregnation and the issue of a fatwa by a local Maulana that declared “As per the Sharia law, the baby in her womb is her husband’s father’s,- her husband must divorce her, even if his father looked at his wife with lust” must have startled every right thinking individual in India.

This again proves that the Islamic priestly class is still living in the medieval era as far as their approach towards their women folk is concerned. The Mullah argues that his decision was based on Shariat (Islamic law) which is divine and immutable. A similar decision was given earlier by the Mufti of Darul Uloom Deoband in 2005 in a case of Imrana. There were no public protests from the community then and not now either. In an interview published in Radiance weekly (August 10-16, 2014) Dr. Syed Qasim Ilyas, a prominent leader of Jamaat-e-Islami Hind and also a member of the working committee of All India Muslim Personal Law Board said: “The British could not find courage to touch or down play any provision of Muslim Personal Laws because family laws were linked to the identity of Muslims and any amendment or change in the personal laws could be considered an act to stop Muslims to follow Islam”. Defending the right to Talak only to the man he said, “after marriage, husband takes all responsibilities of wife and he signs the agreement of marriage; therefore only he is entitled to break the agreement and has the right to disown it”. It appears that Dr. Ilyas is also trapped in the patriarchal mindset of medieval clergy Al-Ghazâlî (11th century) who in his book- The Revival of the Religious Knowledge, advocated that women be kept ignorant: “She must not be well-informed nor must she be taught to write. She should stay at home. … If you relax the woman’s leash a tiny bit, she will take you and bolt wildly. … Their deception is awesome; their guile is immense and contagious. Wickedness and feeble mind are their predominant traits.” (The Medieval Mindset: http://www.ahoban.org/gender-equality-in-islam/). Ghazâlî was an influential Muslim theologian and believed that “Women’s empowerment is a threat to their ideology, and whilst attempting to obliterate any attempts that jeopardize their established dogma, they cite ‘Islam’ as a way of justifying it.”(Ibid).

Like Ilyas, a similar humiliating statement was issued in 1999 by Mufti zubair Bayat, the founder of Darul Ihsan Research and Education Centre, Durban, South Africa. He opined: “When the point has been accepted that men and women are not the same and that they have not been created for the same purpose, then common sense dictates that their rights cannot be the same or equal”. (Islamic Voice, February, 1999).

Another from the Islamic clergy and general secretary of All India Sunni Jamiyathul Ulema, Kanthapuram A P Aboobacker Musaliyar in an interview published in Siraj (1913), the mouthpiece of ‘Kanthapuram’ faction of Sunnis, said, “The demand for male-female equality is against nature. Man and woman have different faculties and different responsibilities.”

Go to the Root Cause- The Personal Law Application Act 1937 of the British:

The prevailing injustice to Muslim women is primarily rooted to the Muslim Personal Law Application Act 1937 enacted by the British then and still holds good to this day. The Act allowed the continuance of Shariat in respect of marriage, divorce and other family laws in Islamic society. The Mullahs are harping on this Act and resist any reform in it on the same plea that Shariat (Islamic law) is divine and therefore immutable.

But the Muslim intellectuals must be aware that just within two years (December,1939) of the enactment of this Act, the United Nations General Assembly held a Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW). Article 5(a) of its resolution “asked all states to take appropriate measures for elimination of prejudices and customary and other practices which are based on the idea of the inferiority or superiority of either of the sexes or on stereotype rules for men and women” (Unequal Citizens – A Study of Muslim Women in India by Zoya Hasan, 2004, Oxford, page 6).. The resolution was ratified by almost one hundred nations. India ratified it in 1993 but with a rider of reservation on Article 5(a) because of its conformity with its policy of non-interference in the personal affairs of any community without its initiative and consent. However, the stand of the then Congress Government was hypocritical as the government of the same party had interfered in the personal law of the Hindus in 1955 and passed Hindu Code Bill despite some opposition from a sizeable section of Hindus.

Many Islamic Scholars have not taken kindly to the 1937 Act:

Contrary to the stand of Muslim orthodoxy, a number of Muslim scholars have argued that the Muslim Personal Law is not a divine command and has also been reformed in many Muslim countries as well as in India during British rule. A.A.A.Fyze, an internationally reputed Islamic scholar in his book ‘Modern Approach to Islam wrote: “Muslim Law in India today is not prevalent as a legal of divine command but a piece of legislative enactment by the British and is known as the Shariat Act of 1937”.

Another Islamic scholar J.D.M. Derrett (‘Religion, Law and the state in India’) has also preferred to call Mohammedan Law or Anglo-Mohammedan Law instead of calling it Shariat which in fact is not enforced strictly in South Asia. He said, “ In India only a portion of Shariat laws are in force, Islamic law in British India developed into an autonomous legal system, substantially different from the strict Islamic laws of the Shariat and it is appropriately called Anglo-Mohammedan Law” (Vrinda Narayan –gender Community –Muslim women’s rights in India, page 4, 8, 95). For him Shariat was transformed into Anglo-Mohammedan Law.

Since reforms in Shariat were carried out by many Islamic countries like Turkey and Egypt, the argument of Muslim orthodoxy in India that it is immutable is not based on sound logic. Even in India the colonial power replaced the provision of criminal laws in Shariat with the British system of laws which are still common to both the Muslims and other religious communities in the country. The objection of the religio-political class in the community is seemingly nothing but their self-seeking politics for mutual profit between them and the vote-seeking political class at the cost of the socio-religious and political injustice to the Muslim women.

Who is afraid to render Gender Equality to Women?

Despite the above views on time to time reforms in Shariat, the Muslim orthodoxy in India took this Act as an instrument not only to deny the right of gender equality to their women folk but not even acknowledge or address their systematic disadvantage. The post-colonial secular and democratic Indian state’s uncritical acceptance of fundamentalists as the sole representatives of Muslim interest encouraged the latter to treat their women subordinate to the men in the community in the name of religion. In fact by not taking up the problem of Muslim women seriously and allowing the British enacted law to continue exclusively for a particular religious community, the state also allowed the violation of the constitutional guarantee to all citizens irrespective of religion and sex.

“Muslim Personal Law as practiced in India contravenes the Convention on the Elimination of All forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW) in several respect” and “the continued existence of personal law which arguably violates the constitutional principles of, inter alia, equality and freedom from discrimination are void to the extent of contradiction” (Unequal Citizens – A Study of Muslim Women in India by Zoya Hasan, 2004, Oxford). The writer also argued: “the Muslim women survey (2000) presents a picture of glaring inequality – social, economic, political – that consistently defines and circumscribes – all women and Muslim women in particular.(Ibid. Page 4, 5).

In view of the repeated propagation of such a humiliating stand against the Islamic priestly class and silence of the State, the status of Muslim women within the Islamic community in India particularly when it comes to gender equality remained undoubtedly an important issue for the Muslim feminists. Male privilege of unilateral divorce, ubiquitous veil, conformity to the strict confines of womanhood within a fundamentalist code are some of the major problems Muslim women have been facing under Muslim Personal Law (Shariat) Application Act 1937 as a result they are the victims of humiliation of their inequality and subordination to men within the community.

This Act had also empowered the self-proclaimed religio-political leaders of the community to out rightly reject the demand for any reform in existing personal laws particularly in the matter of marriage or divorce. They argue that since the Muslim personal law is an integral part of Islam any change in it amounts to destruction of the religious identity of the Muslims.

Why this “silence” from the Indian Mullahs?

The Mullhas’ silence over the prevailing malady, rampant marriage breaks and humiliating treatment of wives in Muslim proletariat, strong reservation in permitting the girls to go to schools imparting modern education shows that the radicals are totally indifferent of the such socio-religious problems in the Muslim society and therefore not ready to free the women from the siege of medieval bondage.

The Indian State on the other hand never made any initiative in this direction despite the fact that such right is protected in many Islamic countries. So much so, by accepting the narrow definition of Muslim Personal Law as divinely ordained law it not only supported Muslim orthodoxy but also became responsible for the centuries old injustice to women as this group is the only population in India whose right to monogamous marriage is not protected.

The Initiative has to come from within- “those Affected”:

For over a decade some Islamic feminist groups in India are organising protests against the unfair sections like polygamy, divorce, property rights and other discriminatory laws against Muslim women and are demanding their abolition. But even though India has a progressive constitution, pro women laws and judgements they have failed to achieve any success due to the absence of mass support and absence of any effective and assertive leadership. Therefore, their voice for gender equality is yet to jerk the conscience of the community or to draw due attention of political class or media.

The movement of Muslim women groups may be nascent but the problem with them is that they are not fighting for their rights as an organised group. Instead of challenging the discriminatory provisions in personal law constitutionally or internationally accepted human rights principles, they are found engaged in re-reading of religious texts to find out Islamic solution to these problems. This could be an acceptable and reasonable way but they have not taken into account the powerful and entrenched position of the radical Mullahs who perhapos feel that any change would undermine their own hold on the community.

They should also try to understand that the Mullhas have linked the issue of gender inequality with the religious identity of the Muslims only for their self-seeking political game despite the fact that this issue has no relevance in a secular and democratic country. Such political game of the radicals has pushed the women folk in the community to a stage of subordination. Apart from it, the women activists are not coming forward to spell out the various oppressive practices of gender discrimination prevailing in the community.

Their silence in cases like Shahbano and on the fatwa issued by the Mufti of Darul Uloom Deoband in the rape of Imrana allegedly by her father-in-law and a similar case recently shows that they do not want to confront the orthodoxy in the community who claim themselves as the sole interpreters of Islamic texts and impose such interpretation on the illiterate woman like Imrana and others.

The Islamic feminists must be aware that right to gender equality is historically rooted to the establishment of All India Women’s Conference in 1927 “as an organization dedicated to upliftment and betterment of women and children” (Wikipedia). By 1942 its leaders started demanding reform in the religion based personal law and application of gender equality principles to women’s rights.

The debates in the Constitutional Assembly:

The issue was however, initiated after Independence when a proposal was introduced in the Constituent Assembly in 1947 by Minoo Masani, a member of the Fundamental Rights Sub-Committee. Minoo Masani together with two women members namely Hansa Mehta and Rajkumari Amrit Kaur and B.R.Ambedkar wished to include the clause on Uniform Civil Code as a fundamental right but they were outvoted by the rest of the members in the committee mainly in deference to the vocal opposition of Muslim members who took it as threat to state interference in their personal law. (Reference from Minoo Masani, Against the Tide, Vikas, New Delhi, 1981, pp. 4-5.http://www.india-seminar.com/1999/484/484%20chiriyankandath.htm#484%20ch…). As a result of such opposition of the members to appease the community, the very objective of a Uniform Civil Code was relegated to a status of uncertainty.

Masani, Mehta and Kaur however, recorded their dissent, stating that “one of the factors that have kept India back from advancing to nationhood has been the existence of personal law based on religion which keeps the nation divided into watertight compartment in many aspects of life. We are of the view that Uniform Civil Code should be guaranteed to Indian people….. ”. (Vrinda Narayan- Gender and Community- Muslim Women’s Rights in India page 5-8).

During Constituent Assembly debate B.R. Ambedkar repeatedly contested the arguments of the Muslim members that their personal law was immutable. He pointed out that “The Shariat Application Act had been enacted specially to bring those Muslims who had hitherto been governed by Hindu law within the purview of Shariat law” (Ibid. Page 9).

The other day (September 14) a TV channel had programmed a debate on the issue of divorce as per Shariat Act and some Muslim women participants were against the prevailing system on this issue in Islamic society and wanted its abolition. But the issue hardly attracted the attraction of the people concerned and even people believing in the concept of gender equality.

Way Ahead:

Even the All India Muslim Women Personal Law Board (AIMWPLB) which was constituted by a group of Islamic feminist organisations in 2005 to protect the rights of Muslim women particularly on the issue of marriage, divorce and other legal rights is also facing the challenge mainly from All India Muslim Personal Law Board, All India Ulema Council and other Mullhas-controlled organisation which does not allow any reform in the Shariat Act.

In order to advocate reforms and change in British enacted family laws for Muslim women that are detrimental to them, there is a need for Islamic feminist groups in the country to form broad coalitions and alliances with the progressive and democratic intellectuals of the community and scholars against the hardliners to reclaim their rights and justice constitutionally as well as on the basis of international organisations in support of their cause.

Apart from it, they should also arm themselves with supporting interpretations of Islamic texts and organise intellectual debates to expose the mutual profit game that is being played out between Mullahs and the vote-seeking political class in the Islamisation of women’s problems of inequality by oppressive and patriarchal interpretation of religious texts.

Fighting for any code that guarantees the gender equality is the only answer to free the women of the community from their medieval bondage that has pushed them to the stage of inequality and discrimination.

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Holy See Replies To UN Committee – OpEd

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The Holy See’ has issued a reply to a report issued earlier this year by the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child

The Holy See took this U.N. committee to task on three levels: the international body does not understand the reach of the Holy See’s authority; it unjustly involved itself in canon law; and it advanced positions on parental rights and sexuality that are unacceptable.

The U.N. committee does not understand the difference between the Holy See, the Vatican City State and the universal Catholic Church. While the Holy See’s “religious and moral mission” is universal, it is a mistake of monumental proportions to conclude that it therefore has universal juridical authority. It is important to recognize that “the Holy See does not ratify a treaty on behalf of every Catholic in the world, and therefore, does not have obligations to ‘implement’ the Convention within the territories of other States Parties on behalf of Catholics, no matter how they are organized.”

The Holy See criticized this U.N. body for the way it “plunged into canon law,” improperly equating this juridical system with that of other member States. Importantly, it emphasized that canon law is a “complex unity of divine positive law, divine natural law and human law.”

On the issue of parental rights, the Holy See took the U.N. committee to task for disregarding the text of the U.N.’s Convention: the text affirms parental rights, yet the committee holds that the U.N. has a right to instruct member states on “sexual and reproductive health” issues. In effect, it is telling the Catholic Church to change its teaching on abortion. And by lecturing the Church to align itself with contemporary “gender” issues, and matters of sexual orientation, it is also showing its contempt for the Church’s autonomy.

In short, those who wrote the U.N.’s report on the Holy See haven’t a clue how the Catholic Church operates. Moreover, they unjustly injected themselves into the internal affairs of the Church.

The post Holy See Replies To UN Committee – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

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