An international team of astronomers has been able to see into the heart of an exploding star, by combining data from telescopes that are hundreds or even thousands of kilometres apart. Their results are published in the journal Nature.

Highly-detailed images produced using radio telescopes from across Europe and America have pinpointed the locations where a stellar explosion (called a nova), emitted gamma rays (extremely high energy radiation). The discovery revealed how the gamma-ray emissions are produced, something which mystified astronomers when they were first observed in 2012.

“We not only found where the gamma rays came from, but also got a look at a previously-unseen scenario that may be common in other nova explosions,” said Laura Chomiuk, of Michigan State University.

Tim O’Brien of The University of Manchester’s Jodrell Bank Observatory, one of the international team of astronomers who worked on the study, explains, “A nova occurs when gas from a companion star falls onto the surface of a white dwarf star in a binary system. This triggers a thermonuclear explosion on the surface of the star which blasts the gas into space at speeds of millions of miles per hour”.

“When it explodes it brightens hugely, leading in some cases to the appearance of a new star in the sky, hence the term nova. These explosions are unpredictable, so when one goes off, the pressure is on for us to try and get as many of the world’s telescopes as possible to take a look before it fades away. For this nova, our international team was primed and ready to go and we really came up trumps.”

Astronomers did not expect this nova scenario to produce high-energy gamma rays. However, in June of 2012, NASA’s Fermi spacecraft detected gamma rays coming from a nova called V959 Mon, some 6500 light-years from Earth.

At the same time, observations with the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA) of telescopes in the USA indicated that radio waves coming from the nova were probably the result of subatomic particles moving at nearly the speed of light interacting with magnetic fields. The high-energy gamma-ray emission, the astronomers noted, also required such fast-moving particles.

Later observations from the telescopes of the European VLBI network (EVN) and the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) in the USA revealed two distinct knots of radio emission. These knots then were seen to move away from each other. This observation, along with studies made with the e-MERLIN telescope array in the UK, and further VLA observations in 2014, provided the scientists with information that allowed them to put together a picture of how the radio knots, and the gamma rays, were produced.

In the first stage of this scenario, the white dwarf and its companion give up some of their orbital energy to boost some of the explosion material, making the ejected material move outward faster in the plane of their orbit. Later, the white dwarf blows off a faster wind of particles moving mostly outward along the poles of the orbital plane. When the faster-moving polar flow hits the slower-moving material, the shock accelerates particles to the speeds needed to produce the gamma rays, and the knots of radio emission.

“By watching this system over time and seeing how the pattern of radio emission changed, then tracing the movements of the knots, we saw the exact behaviour expected from this scenario,” Chomiuk said.

A technique called radio interferometry, in which data from various radio telescopes are combined to obtain a sharper image, played a fundamental role in this result. By connecting together radio telescopes across tens, hundreds and even thousands of kilometres, the scientists were able to zoom in to get a much sharper view of the heart of this exploding star.

Gamma rays from several nova explosions have now been detected so it may be that the phenomenon is relatively common, but perhaps seen only when the nova is sufficiently close to Earth.

Because this type of ejection is also seen in other binary-star (two stars orbiting each other) systems, the new insights may help astronomers understand how those systems develop. The phase in which matter ejected from one star engulfs its companion occurs in all close binary stars, and is poorly understood.

“We may be able to use novae as a ‘testbed’ for improving our understanding of this critical stage of binary evolution,” Chomiuk said.

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People often think that smoking cannabis makes them more creative. However, research by Leiden psychologists Lorenza Colzato and Mikael Kowal shows that the opposite is true. They published their findings on 7 October in Psychopharmacology.

The findings show that cannabis with a high concentration of the psychoactive ingredient THC does not improve creativity. Smokers who ingested a low dose of THC, or none at all (they were given a placebo), performed best in the thinking tasks that the test candidates had to carry out. A high dose of THC was actually shown to have a negative effect on the ability to quickly come up with as many solutions as possible to a given problem.

Increased creativity is an illusion

The research findings contradict the claims of people who say that their thinking changes and becomes more original after smoking a joint.

There’s no sign of any increased creativity in their actual performance, according to Colzato. “The improved creativity that they believe they experience is an illusion.”

According to Colzato, “If you want to overcome writer’s block or any other creative gap, lighting up a joint isn’t the best solution. Smoking several joints one after the other can even be counterproductive to creative thinking.”

The research method

Colzato and her PhD candidate Kowal were the first researchers to study the effects of cannabis use on creative thinking.

For ethical reasons, only cannabis users were selected for this study.

The test candidates were divided into three groups of 18. One group was given cannabis with a high THC content (22 mg), the second group was given a low dose (5.5 mg) and the third group was given a placebo. The high dose was equivalent to three joints and the low dose was equal to a single joint. Obviously, none of the test candidates knew what they were being given; the cannabis was administered via a vaporizer.

The test candidates then had to carry out cognitive tasks that were testing for two types of creative thinking:

• Divergent thinking: generating rapid solutions for a given problem, such as: “Think of as many uses as you can for a pen?”
• Convergent thinking: Finding the only right answer to a question, such as: “What is the link between the words ‘time’, ‘hair’ and ‘stretching’. (The answer is ‘long’.)

The post Smoking Cannabis Doesn’t Make You More Creative – Research appeared first on Eurasia Review.

A little known secret in data mining is that simply feeding raw data into a data analysis algorithm is unlikely to produce meaningful results, say the authors of a new Cornell University study.

From recognizing speech to identifying unusual stars, new discoveries often begin with comparison of data streams to find connections and spot outliers. But most data comparison algorithms today have one major weakness – somewhere, they rely on a human expert to specify what aspects of the data are relevant for comparison, and what aspects aren’t. But experts aren’t keeping pace with the growing amounts and complexities of big data.

Cornell computing researchers have come up with a new principle they call “data smashing” for estimating the similarities between streams of arbitrary data without human intervention, and without access to the data sources. Hod Lipson, associate professor of mechanical engineering and computing and information science, and Ishanu Chattopadhyay, a former postdoctoral associate with Lipson and now at the University of Chicago, have described their method in Royal Society Interface, Oct. 1.

Data smashing is based on a new way to compare data streams. The process involves two steps. First, the data streams are algorithmically “smashed” to “annihilate” the information in each other. Then, the process measures what information remained after the collision. The more information remained, the less likely the streams originated in the same source.

Data smashing principles may open the door to understanding increasingly complex observations, especially when experts do not know what to look for, according to the researchers.

The authors demonstrated the application of their principle to data from real-world problems, including the disambiguation of electroencephalograph patterns from epileptic seizure patients; detection of anomalous cardiac activity from heart recordings; and classification of astronomical objects from raw photometry.

In all cases and without access to original domain knowledge, the researchers demonstrated performance on par with the accuracy of specialized algorithms and heuristics devised by experts.

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Researchers from the National Cancer Institute report that decaffeinated coffee drinking may benefit liver health.

Results of the study published in Hepatology, a journal of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases, show that higher coffee consumption, regardless of caffeine content, was linked to lower levels of abnormal liver enzymes. This suggests that chemical compounds in coffee other than caffeine may help protect the liver.

Coffee consumption is highly prevalent with more than half of all Americans over 18 drinking on average three cups each day according to a 2010 report from the National Coffee Association. Moreover, the International Coffee Association reports that coffee consumption has increased one percent each year since the 1980s, increasing to two percent in recent years. Previous studies found that coffee consumption may help lower the risk of developing diabetes, cardiovascular disease, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, cirrhosis, and liver cancer.

“Prior research found that drinking coffee may have a possible protective effect on the liver. However, the evidence is not clear if that benefit may extend to decaffeinated coffee,” explains lead researcher Dr. Qian Xiao from the National Cancer Institute in Bethesda, Maryland.

For the present study researchers used data from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 1999-2010). The study population included 27,793 participants, 20 years of age or older, who provided coffee intake in a 24-hour period. The team measured blood levels of several markers of liver function, including aminotransferase (ALT), aminotransferase (AST), alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and gamma glutamyl transaminase (GGT) to determine liver health.

Participants who reported drinking three or more cups of coffee per day had lower levels of ALT, AST, ALP and GGT compared to those not consuming any coffee. Researchers also found low levels of these liver enzymes in participants drinking only decaffeinated coffee.

Dr. Xiao concludes, “Our findings link total and decaffeinated coffee intake to lower liver enzyme levels. These data suggest that ingredients in coffee, other than caffeine, may promote liver health. Further studies are needed to identify these components.”

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(EurActiv) — The Council of the European Union Thursday (9 October) finally published the secret negotiating mandate for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the US.

Although the directives empowering the European Commission to talk to Washington on the EU’s behalf were classified, they have in fact been freely available online since June 2013.

The continued classification of the 17 page document has become increasingly embarrassing, as campaigners and NGOs have accused the trade talks of not being transparent enough.

The paper explains the nature and scope of TTIP, a preamble and general principles, objectives, provisions about market access, regulatory issues and non-tariff barriers and rules, the institutional framework, and final provisions.

Member states refused to publish the speedily-leaked mandate, despite later calls from outgoing Trade Commissioner Karel de Gucht, some MEPs, and the European Ombudsman, to do so.

National governments agreed to officially declassify the negotiating documents today by “common accord” – without debate – it was announced by the Italian Presidency of the EU. Only the Council could take the decision to publish the negotiating mandate.

De Gucht’s department felt the continued non-publication had become a stick for TTIP opponents to beat them with, especially as transparency became a hotter and hotter issue round the talks.

The Trade Commissioner said: ‘I’m delighted EU governments have chosen today to make the TTIP negotiating mandate public – something I’ve been encouraging them to do for a long time [...] it further underlines our commitment to transparency as we pursue the negotiations.”

Ombudsman transparency investigation

Ombudsman Emily O’Reilly investigates complaints about maladministration in the EU institutions. In September following complaints from civil society organisations, she opened two investigations into the EU Council and Commission over the opacity of the talks.

Accusations were made about important documents being kept secret, delays in publication, and the alleged leaking of TTIP texts to big business and corporate lobbyists.

Among O’Reilly’s demands for more transparency was that the mandate be published. She stopped short of calling for all negotiating documents to be available.

“It’s a good day for TTIP transparency. I am delighted to see that all member states in the Council now share the view of many, that given the potential impact of TTIP on the lives of citizens, key documents, such as the negotiating directives, have to be published,” she said.

But NGOs sounded a note of caution. Olivier Hoedeman, of Corporate Europe Observatory, said, “This hopefully will set a precedent, making it normal practice to publish documents around international trade talks. But the Council should clarify whether this signals a new transparency policy, or is nothing more just an empty gesture.”

Political groups in the European Parliament also welcomed the publication of the documents, describing their declassification as “better late than never”.

The Commission has protested that the trade talks are the most transparent ever held, pointing to the fact that they provide MEPs with more information than they are required to under the Lisbon Treaty, a dedicated website and Twitter account, and regular meetings with concerned parties.

Seven rounds of talks have taken place, with the last finishing in Washington in October.

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Ebola, as with many emerging infections, is likely to have arisen due to man’s interaction with wild animals – most likely the practice of hunting and eating wild meat known as ‘bushmeat’. A team of researchers led by the University of Cambridge and the Zoological Society of London (ZSL) has surveyed almost six hundred people across southern Ghana to find out what drives consumption of bat bushmeat – and how people perceive the risks associated with the practice.

The Straw-Coloured Fruit Bat, Eidolon helvum, is widely hunted and eaten in Ghana, but carries a risk of infection with ‘zoonotic’ pathogens – diseases transmitted from animal to man. Hunting, butchering and consuming wild animals for food can potentially transmit these infections through bites, scratches, bodily fluids, tissue and excrement. Bats in particular appear to host more zoonotic viruses per species than any other group of mammals, yet very little is known about how humans and bats interact, how people perceive bats and their accompanying disease risk, or who is most at risk.

Dr Olivier Restif from the Department of Veterinary Medicine at the University of Cambridge explains: “Knowing who eats bush meat and why, as well as how they perceive the risks, is important for informing both disease and conservation management plans. This requires a close-knit collaboration between epidemiologists, ecologists and social anthropologists. That is why we have teamed up with the Zoological Society of London and the University of Ghana to develop this research programme.”

Dr Alexandra Kamins, a Gates Cambridge scholar alumna working with Dr Restif, adds: “All too often, local community voices go unheard, despite representing those most at risk of spillover and often shouldering negative impacts arising from intervention measures. That is why it was important for us to listen to them.”

Dr Kamins and colleagues interviewed 577 people across southern Ghana, including hunters, vendors and consumers of bat meat. Of these, the majority (551) were interviewed using a general survey whilst the rest were interviewed in-depth through focus groups.

The researchers found that hunters used a variety of means to capture bats, including shooting, netting and scavenging, and that all of the hunters reported handling live bats, coming into contact with bat blood and getting scratched or bitten. None of the hunters reported using protective measures, such as gloves. Scavenged bats were collected alive, usually when a branch broke and bats fell to the ground, but this too carried risks: four interviewees explained how people would fight over the bats when a large branch fell, sometimes even lying down on top of bats to prevent others from taking them, often sustaining bites and scratches.

The bats were prepared and cooked in a number of ways, the most common methods being to smoke the bats before preparing food and using the bats in soup. At odds with reports from other countries, the survey in South East Ghana revealed few uses of bat bushmeat associated with traditional beliefs or medical practices. In Ghana, bat bushmeat seems to function as both subsistence and luxury food. The large number of hunters who hunt for themselves or who keep some of their catch suggests that bats provide a readily available source of animal protein. At the same time, high taste ratings among consumers and relatively high prices suggest that bat meat is seen as a ‘luxury food’ in Ghana.

Hunters, vendors and consumers of bat meat all tended to be older than those people with no connection to the practice – on average seven to ten years older. The researchers believe this could imply a number of scenarios, the most likely being a decrease in youth interest in bat bushmeat.

They found a strong association between gender and roles in the bat-bushmeat commodity chain, with hunters primarily being male and vendors female, consistent with the cultural norms of rural Ghanaian society. This could mean that disease risk was also different between the sexes. The researchers also found that those people living in urban environments and those who were more educated were less likely to participate in bat bushmeat activities. Although this suggests that increased urbanisation and improvements in education could reduce the use of bats as bushmeat, it is possible that increased household income could lead to increased bushmeat consumption, particularly as the meat appears to be seen as a luxury item.

Using focus groups, the researchers carried out more in-depth interviews to understand participants’ likely reactions to interventions regarding bat bushmeat. They found that regulations by themselves are not effective solutions: laws and fines alone are unlikely to induce change. While only some of our respondents would be willing to risk paying fines if they continued to earn enough from selling bat bushmeat, essentially no one knew of the existing hunting laws in Ghana, suggesting that enforcement is a major issue.

Possible health risks appeared to be more of a deterrent than fines; some respondents suggested that disease risk could motivate them to stop. However, the risk of disease from bat bushmeat was considered to be greatest by those who did not consume the meat and lowest by those who hunted or sold the bats. This finding supports previous research suggesting that people can readily perceive risk and even intellectually acknowledge desire to reduce that risk, but actual behaviour might not change.

Professor James Wood, who leads the research programme at the University of Cambridge, says: “Understanding both actual and perceived risk factors is vital. If a bat-borne zoonotic disease outbreak were to occur in Ghana, our information could prove invaluable in helping target those groups at greatest risk and in planning disease control measures.”

Dr Marcus Rowcliffe from ZSL adds: “Unfortunately, there may not be a simple way to minimise the risks of zoonotic spillover from bats. For example, bat hunting is a highly seasonal occupation and, like all bushmeat hunting, can be started and dropped at will, whereas rearing domestic animals – one possible sustainable solution for reducing bushmeat hunting – requires continuous activity throughout the year on a daily basis.

“Although many programmes suggest economic opportunity as the major motivation behind livelihood choices and success of alternatives, it may not be enough on its own. We found people in Ghana to be responsive to education pieces about the disease risk from bushmeat but also the ecological role of bats in pollination and seed dispersal. Working with local communities to help them find effective and sustainable solutions in line with their economic needs must be a long-term commitment.”

Reference
Kamins, AO et al. Characteristics and Risk Perceptions of Ghanaians Potentially Exposed to Bat-Borne Zoonoses through Bushmeat. Ecohealth; 30 Sept 2014

Source: University of Cambridge

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By K.V. Kesavan

Even though Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been travelling widely across continents to bolster Japan’s diplomatic reach, he is sorely aware that he is not in a position to achieve any breakthrough in Tokyo’s relations with its immediate neighbouring countries China, South Korea and Russia. This is a major source of concern for policy- makers in the Japanese Government.

In a bid to achieve some semblance of normality with China in particular, the Abe administration has undertaken several attempts to revive official talks at the highest level, either directly or on the sidelines of some regional or international forums.

The forthcoming APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) annual summit, to be held in Beijing in November, provides an opportunity for both Abe and Chinese President Xi Jingping to meet for the first time and perhaps move in the direction of working out at least a limited “detente” in their relations.

Ever since Japan nationalised the Senkaku/Daiyoyu islands and brought them under the direct control of the central government, China has refused to participate in all bilateral summit meetings with Japan. Sharp deterioration of relations since 2012 has had its impact on almost all aspects of their bilateral ties.

China’s strident maritime activities in the East China Sea provoked strong responses from Japan. A series of developments such as Abe’s new national security strategy, creation of the National Security Council, announcement of new National Defence Policy Guidelines, Abe’s visit to the Yasukuni Shrine in December 2013 and US-Japan security consultations further intensified China’s suspicions. US leaders including President Barack Obama and Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel reiterated their commitment to defend the Senkaku Islands should China provoke a military showdown.

On the economic front, continuing tension took its own toll. It is reported that Japan’s investment in China during the first half of 2014 has suffered a 48 per cent decline compared to the corresponding period last year. In recent months, several Japanese companies have shown their inclination to reduce their dependence on China and turned to other countries like Thailand, Vietnam and India.

However, one cannot ignore the fact that there are more than 20,000 Japanese companies still doing business with China. To be sure, China is still the biggest trading partner of Japan, accounting for about $ 340 billion last year. Japanese business people still attach great importance to China and to the need for maintaining normal ties. Similarly, there are many in China too who show their anxiety to sustain the present level of economic interactions.

It is against this complex background that Prime Minister Abe chose to make a significant reference to the bilateral relations in his major policy speech delivered at the Japanese Diet on September 29.

He said that “Japan and China are an inseparable pair. China’s development means an opportunity for our nation.” He vowed for an “early realisation of a summit meeting to develop a stable, amicable relationship.” He believed that such a meeting was necessary to build friendly relations between Japan and China, both of which “share responsibilities for the region’s peace and prosperity.”

Abe has made these remarks with an eye on the forthcoming high level meeting of the APEC in Beijing. The Abe administration hopes to make this meeting a starting point of a dialogue with the Chinese leadership. Both Abe and President Xi Jinping have not held a formal meeting ever since they came to power, and efforts to hold such a meeting have been largely spurned by Beijing on two conditions that Japan accept that there is a territorial dispute on the Senkaku Islands and that Prime Minister Abe agree not to visit the Yasukuni Shrine again.

One should not consider Abe’s speech as something of a great surprise because behind the high-pitched mutual recrimination and political rhetoric, one could see a certain degree of concern among interested parties on both sides to seek a truce in bilateral ties. In May this year, a bi-partisan delegation of nine lawmakers led by Masahiko Komoto, Vice-President of the liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and a former foreign minister visited Beijing to explore the prospects of arranging a summit between Abe and Xi Jinping. The delegation included such well-known political leaders like Katsuya Okada from the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), and Kazuo Kitagawa from the New Komeito Party. They met many Chinese officials and leaders and found them suspicious about Japan’s “expanding” defence policies and Abe’s visit to the Yasukuni Shrine in December 2013.

In August, former Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, who is respected by many in China , visited Beijing with a message from Abe and met President Xi. Though the meeting was kept a secret, Fukuda later revealed how he and Xi shared a “sense of crisis” over the strained bilateral relations. Around the same time, the meeting between Japanese foreign minister Fumio Kishida and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Myanmar carried considerable importance.

Two more significant developments have followed since then, showing considerable willingness on the part of both countries to seek improved relations. Firstly, on September 8, a delegation of 200 Japanese business executives sponsored by the Japan-China Economic Association went to China under the leadership of Fujio Cho, Honorary Chairman of the Toyota Company. Though the Association has been sending its delegations regularly for many years, this year’s mission is the biggest in size. The delegation also included such influential men like Sadayuki Sakakibara, Chief of the Keidanren (Federation of Japan Chambers of Commerce) and Takeshi Imai, chairman of Nippon steel and Sumitomo Metal Corporation. They saw indications from the Chinese side that it was eager to promote economic cooperation with Japan. The delegation met Vice-Premier Wang Yang to discuss economic issues between the two countries. The Keidanren’s chief sounded quite positive when he said that they would like to contribute to creating a favourable environment for a Abe-Xi summit.

Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, both Japan and China decided on September 24 to resume talks for initiating a bilateral maritime communication mechanism designed to forestall accidental military showdown. To be sure, the genesis of this decision goes back to June 2012 when both countries had reached a basic agreement on this question. But before they could take follow up measures, their relations got badly strained following Tokyo’s decision to nationalise the Senkaku Islands in September of the same year. When in September this year Japan wished to resume the stalled talks, China also readily agreed and negotiations were held by the concerned officials of both countries. There is little doubt that Japan believed that the resumption of talks could create an atmosphere congenial for the holding of the first Abe-Xi summit in Beijing at the time of the APEC meeting.

(Prof K.V. Kesavan is a Distinguished Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi)

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One small “hot spot” in the U.S. Southwest is responsible for producing the largest concentration of the greenhouse gas methane seen over the United States – more than triple the standard ground-based estimate — according to a new study of satellite data by scientists at NASA and the University of Michigan.

Methane is very efficient at trapping heat in the atmosphere and, like carbon dioxide, it contributes to global warming. The hot spot, near the Four Corners intersection of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, covers only about 2,500 square miles (6,500 square kilometers), or half the size of Connecticut.

In each of the seven years studied from 2003-2009, the area released about 0.59 million metric tons of methane into the atmosphere. This is almost 3.5 times the estimate for the same area in the European Union’s widely used Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research.

In the study published online today in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, researchers used observations made by the European Space Agency’s Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) instrument. SCIAMACHY measured greenhouse gases from 2002 to 2012. The atmospheric hot spot persisted throughout the study period. A ground station in the Total Carbon Column Observing Network, operated by the Department of Energy’s Los Alamos National Laboratory, provided independent validation of the measurement.

To calculate the emissions rate that would be required to produce the observed concentration of methane in the air, the authors performed high-resolution regional simulations using a chemical transport model, which simulates how weather moves and changes airborne chemical compounds.

Research scientist Christian Frankenberg of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California, first noticed the Four Corners signal years ago in SCIAMACHY data.

“We didn’t focus on it because we weren’t sure if it was a true signal or an instrument error,” Frankenberg said.

The study’s lead author, Eric Kort of the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, noted the study period predates the widespread use of hydraulic fracturing, known as fracking, near the hot spot. This indicates the methane emissions should not be attributed to fracking but instead to leaks in natural gas production and processing equipment in New Mexico’s San Juan Basin, which is the most active coalbed methane production area in the country.

Natural gas is 95-98 percent methane. Methane is colorless and odorless, making leaks hard to detect without scientific instruments.

“The results are indicative that emissions from established fossil fuel harvesting techniques are greater than inventoried,” Kort said. “There’s been so much attention on high-volume hydraulic fracturing, but we need to consider the industry as a whole.”

Coalbed methane is gas that lines pores and cracks within coal. In underground coal mines, it is a deadly hazard that causes fatal explosions almost every year as it seeps out of the rock. After the U.S. energy crisis of the 1970s, techniques were invented to extract the methane from the coal and use it for fuel. By 2012, coalbed methane supplied about 8 percent of all natural gas in the United States.

Frankenberg noted that the study demonstrates the unique role space-based measurements can play in monitoring greenhouse gases.

“Satellite data cannot be as accurate as ground-based estimates, but from space, there are no hiding places,” Frankenberg said.

In March 2014 the Obama Administration announced a strategy to reduce methane emissions under its Climate Action Plan. The strategy includes improving the measurement and monitoring of methane emissions and assessing current methane emissions data.

NASA monitors Earth’s vital signs from land, air and space with a fleet of satellites and airborne and ground-based observation campaigns. NASA develops new ways to observe and study Earth’s interconnected natural systems with long-term data records and computer analysis tools to better see how our planet is changing. The agency shares this unique knowledge with the global community and works with institutions in the United States and around the world that contribute to understanding and protecting our home planet.

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By Ann Stawski

Paraguay is commonly referred to as “El Corazón de América.” For anyone who has enrolled in Associate Professor Carol Vollmer Pope’s business courses, you’ll know “The Heart of America” is special for her.

Combining her love of international business with this South American country, Pope developed an MBA elective, Paraguayan Market Development and Tourism. The elective was initially inspired by MBA student Sue DaBaco as an independent study proposal. In the course, students conducted an in-depth study, determining an opportunity for Paraguay to strengthen commercial ties with Wisconsin and the U.S., while providing recommendations to reduce high levels of poverty. A landlocked country, Paraguay has a stable market economy and has demonstrated solid economic growth since 2004.

After the course, MBA students worked for additional credit electives by assisting in the undergraduate Marketing Principles and Strategy course. Graduate students refined their Paraguayan research and presentations, while undergraduate students developed marketing plans for country image, market development and tourism. Together, they analyzed Paraguay’s need for infrastructure improvement, while implementing a more pragmatic foreign policy and effectively managing its natural resources.

Pope found the exercise beneficial on several levels. “This was the first time Alverno MBA students and undergrads worked together on a project. There was cross-disciplinary learning as students determined Paraguay was ready for business investment.”

As part of the course, Business students planned and hosted the Paraguay Economic Forum last February. The daylong forum was broadcast via the Internet and live streamed at Paraguay’s National University of the East (UNE). Local businesses, community members and the Wisconsin Department of Agriculture attended. A traveling delegation, including both the chancellor and director of International Relations for the UNE, and the commercial attaché of Paraguay in Miami were also on campus that day. David Ocampos, minister of technological innovation and high tech communication also provided an overview of the current IT situation in Paraguay via Skype.

It successfully brought together two countries to share information. “We provided a venue for Milwaukee businesses to see the exciting opportunities that exist in Paraguay, focusing on sustainable economic development,” says Pope. “We achieved our goal of opening lines of communication and making connections on a global basis. There are opportunities to do so much more.”

With its reputation as manufacturing city, Milwaukee was a logical connection for the forum. Pope and DaBaco worked to bring together experts to promote Paraguayan and U.S. trade ties. Pope’s MBA students were also instrumental in developing and organizing the event. It was the first time a U.S. college independently developed a program of this type with Paraguay.

One of those MBA students, Alex Bartoszewicz, took his course research one step further. In October 2013, Bartoszewicz traveled to Paraguay as an Alverno ambassador with Peter Tase, an international adviser to the MBA class.

Bartoszewicz’s weeklong trip was filled with meetings with various dignitaries, including the minister of agriculture and livestock, state minister of culture, chancellor of the National University of the East, business leaders and civil society leaders. Bartoszewicz and Tase capped off their mission by meeting with Ocampos.

“I always had an interest in international business. Because of this course, I experienced it firsthand,” says Bartoszewicz, an underwriting manager at Northwestern Mutual.

In an interview for Alverno Magazine Mr. Bartoszewicz stated “With Carol’s recommendations and Peter’s guidance, I generated awareness, created connections and promoted the forum.”
Bartoszewicz plans to continue to work with the country, remaining connected to students and instructors at Alverno after he graduates this December.

This article is re-published with permission from the Alverno College Magazine Editorial Board.

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Did President Obama’s gay rights obsession lead to a redrawing of international borders? If so, it must be a first in history. But let’s revisit the facts…

By Mathew Maavak*

Is it just me or has anyone else noticed a distinct dip in the United States’ LGBT posturing after Crimea’s reunification with Russia?

Between the second half of 2013 and the Sochi Winter Olympics (Feb 7-23), it looked as if the West’s finicky carousel of moral indignation could not swivel beyond gay rights.

Some of us hidebound folks had actually stopped to wonder whether a lanky brown figure – dressed up as a Drag Queen – would lead a charge of the oppressed in Sodom’s version of the Exodus, proclaiming “hope and change” in very presidential tones.

A CNN report on Aug 4 2013 typified the West’s wrath. There were calls for protests and boycotts as “international” anger grew over Russia’s anti-gay propaganda laws. Even vodka was not sparred. Besides the motley mix of celebrities and media stalwarts, Western politicians flung the dainty gauntlet at Russia by skipping the opening ceremony. They included German President Joachim Gauck, Chancellor Angela Merkel, British PM David Cameron, US President Barack Obama, US Vice-President Joe Biden, and Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite.

An Al Jazeera Op-ed’s call for a Sochi boycott was not without its ironies. For one, it must have escaped the writer’s attention that Qatar retains the death penalty for homosexuality or that Doha owns Al Jazeera. And here is a further twist: Russia had decriminalized homosexual activity between consenting adults in private as way back as 1993 and the age of consent is the same as that for heterosexual couples. It does indeed forbid public manifestations of “homosexual propaganda.”

The American sense of justice, however, never stops tilting. For a while it looked as if the Sochi extravaganza might keel over from a mass boycott. Enormous foreign policy and media resources were diverted for an Olympian triumph of the pink will. Gay activists Billie Jean King and Caitlin Cahow were especially picked to lead the US opening ceremony delegation as they allegedly represented “the diversity that is the United States.”

Those of us dependent on the global K-Economy and the merits of ideation began to get worried as we would be further sidelined in a rampant “diversity economy.” Too many nations had too many discriminatory policies that led to the impoverishment of ideas and economies. We were producing too many Barack Hussein Obamas for our own good!

Even traditional symbols of truce and fraternity no longer mattered. Martina Navratilova discovered that Russian anti-gays laws made it impossible for intellectuals like her to separate sports from politics. This contrasted with lessons learned during my schooldays: the Olympics were instituted to separate sports from national rivalry and enmity.

When the leader of the self-styled “free world” redefines “values” and “rights” along the lines of public sexuality, the world becomes reduced to a borderless Obamanation.

Top US administration officials attacked nations from Russia to Uganda during this frenzy period. Kampala had approved a proposed law criminalizing public homosexuality around the time of the Sochi Olympics. Smart Third World students who were inexplicably rejected for US and UK study awards earlier began to wonder if their re-application prospects could be improved by the coy confessions of being closeted gays. Merit mattered less. Much less!

The decades-long colour-coded revolutions were now turning pink. Green carnations blossomed everywhere. The demand for tight lederhosen was never better.

Out of the blue, Vladimir Putin threw a potent herbicide at this floral bloom, beginning in Crimea!

How Crimea was ‘Lost’

While Obama and company fantasized of a propaganda triumph in Sochi, the parade grounds of Sevastopol echoed with the silent conspiracies of yet another military legend. This feat will be studied by generations of young military officers worldwide. On Feb 26, pro-Moscow Ukrainian and Russian comrades fanned out, sans official epaulettes and insignias, to take over vital infrastructure all across the Crimean peninsula.

Amazingly, not a single shot was fired. By Feb 28 – arguably within a 48-hour makeshift operation – they had effectively reunified Crimea with Russia. It took the world by complete surprise. Private toasts were offered to Russia worldwide. The Western media contemptuously described these soldiers in Martian terms, as the “little green men” in balaclavas. Crimeans knew what was at stake; the Balkans in the 90s and impending atrocities in Lugansk and Donetsk rightfully vindicated their fears before the world. But not quite the West!

During this critical window period, the US intelligence community relied heavily on military and civilian communications intercepts as well as the now risible social media evidence. Somehow, those little green men weren’t giving away clues via Twitter and Facebook. Dozens of US security officials, ensconced just a ferry ride away in the Sochi Olympic village, failed to pick up any unusual chatter across the Straits of Kerch. Scores of Western journalists in post-coup Ukraine were almost as clueless.

Despite the gross intelligence failure, US officials and politicians promptly exonerated themselves. Senate Intelligence Committee Chairwoman Dianne Feinstein declared that US intelligence assets had already been moved to re-focus on the region. If that was true, wouldn’t the US possess a treasure trove of evidence, on top of satellite data and imagery, on the downing of Flight MH17 on July 17?

According to a March 7 Town Hall article, Crimean entry into Russia was the logical outcome of a US foreign policy rooted in “unseriousness.” The writer just could not find a stronger, proper word to describe the juvenile surrealism of US foreign policy. This “unseriousness” stretched the boundaries of ridicule. Secretary of State John Kerry identified climate change as “threat multipliers” to national security during an Asian tour.

The temperature was indeed soaring in Eastern Ukraine, and somewhere in Pennsylvania Avenue, where the President and his men appeared clinging to a wilting dream that had phalanxes of male-sized pink tutus marching free-style in Kiev and Moscow…

The Roseate Cornerstone of US Foreign Policy

Till the aftermath of the Crimean crisis, gay rights appeared to predominate Obama’s foreign policy priorities. This was underscored by National Security Advisor Susan Rice during a meeting with top US diplomats on March 11. According to the Daily Caller, Rice “devoted far more space and time to militant advocacy for gay liberation, while she painted diplomats as the heroic champions of gay rights.” The original speech went a few steps further, with Rice reminding US envoys that “that there are times, such as when the threat of mass atrocities is imminent, that it is appropriate to join with others in using force to protect the innocent.”

This statement did not refer to the mass murders fomented by US arms, propaganda, funding and diplomatic support in Syria, Iraq and Eastern Ukraine. Instead, it was a statement straddled between sentences that specifically referred to the LGBT community. The atrocities perpetrated against Christian, Alawite, Yazidi and Shia minorities in Syria and Iraq – the Holocaust of the 21st century – did not merit a single mention. Neither did ISIS, ISIL or IS.

Why was the US National Security Advisor advocating global gay rights diplomacy? Did LGBT discrimination really affect national security? I can think of ways when it did — when many rising career diplomats, military officers and national security officials were dropped in favour of the “diversity crowd!

Rice concluded on the usual self-delusional note: “The world looks to the United States.  What’s more, the world counts on the United States.”

Strange! I Hardly anyone in Asia – home to half of humanity – harbours that ridiculous view. But it does take time for delusions to wear off.

On the very day Crimea was retaken for Russia, the Sunday Review headlines in the New York Times – Tussling Over Ukraine; Gains and Grave Setbacks for Gay Rights – inadvertently captured the new foreign policy dilemma. How will the US agitate over Eastern Ukraine and gay rights concurrently under the present circumstances? It will have to drop the latter in favour of the former. Lots of oil contracts alone were at stake and they were worth a lot more than the outer channelling of the presidential persona.

Obama palpably ceased public criticism of Russia on gay issues from March onwards.

At the end of the day, does the US leadership really care about LGBT or any other issue? Or does it want to clone additional Obamas and Obama group-thinking for the purpose of “global governance”? Think about it.

For the time being, the diversity crowd has been beaten back, and the lessons learnt here can be summed up by a personal paraphrase inspired by that timeless English rhyme:

For want of a green carnation, Russia was sought

For want of a pink parade, Crimea was lost

* @Mathew Maavak, is a former Malaysian journalist.

The post For Want Of A Pink Parade, Crimea Was Lost – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Mehmet Hecan

Turkey’s Deputy Prime Minister responsible for the Economy Ali Babacan announced the country’s medium-term economic program yesterday. Citing the low prospects of developing economies achieving high growth, Babacan said that Turkey revised its estimates on economic development for the upcoming three years.

Accordingly, the greatest change has been observed in the economic forecasts for 2014. Turkey changed its estimated economic growth rate from 4% to 3.3% and its estimated inflation from 5.5% to 9.4% for this year.

The only positive change in the 2014 forecasts is seen in estimates on the current account deficit. Although the government expected to run a 6.4% current account deficit in 2014, this percentage has now sunk to 5.7%.

Babacan said that the developing economies grew at higher rates before the 2008 global financial crisis but that it is less likely for these countries to achieve the same growth rates in the coming years despite the gradual improvement the global economy has been exhibiting since then.

In addition, Babacan said that the plans of the FED ( the central bank of the United States) to increase interest rates starting in 2015 are likely to negatively affect the Turkish economy. Turkey is concerned that possible higher interest rates in the U.S. will impede foreign investment inflows attracted by high interest rates in Turkey.
However, the recovery in the Eurozone, albeit slow, Babacan said, bodes well for the Turkish economy seeing that European countries are the first destination of Turkish exports.

Babacan enumerated the government’s priorities over the next three years as follows: fighting inflation, reducing the current account deficit, making structural reforms and maintaining monetary discipline.

Even though the government has prioritized the reduction of the current account deficit in previous years, the higher than expected inflation rates that fall short of the 2014 target have now been given precedence.

According to the new medium-term economic program, Turkey’s targets are as follows:

• Economic growth rate of 4% and 5% for 2015 and 2016-2017 respectively
• Current account deficit of 5.4% and 5.2% for 2015-2016 and 2017 respectively
• Inflation at 6.3% and 5% for 2015 and 2016-2017 respectively
• Unemployment at 9.5%, 9.2% and 9.1% consecutively from 2015 to 2017

The post Turkey Cuts Economic Forecasts appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Viktoriia Demydova

Elected on May 25, 2014 after the first round of elections with 54.7% of the vote, Petro Poroshenko became a unifying symbol for Ukrainians in face of domestic crisis. Four months after the elections, what can be said about the new Ukrainian President?

Election results

During the 2014 presidential elections, Poroshenko won the majority of votes in all regions of Ukraine. However, the western regions appeared to have been more in favor of his presidential bid than the eastern ones. Thus, whereas the eastern Kharkiv, Lugans’k and Donets’k oblasts elected Poroshenko with 35.27%, 33.17% and 36.15% of the vote respectively, the western oblasts of L’viv, Ternopil’ and Ivano-Frankivs’k voted for him with 69.9%, 60.62% and 65.13% respectively.

Conflict in Eastern Ukraine and domestic policies

Despite the support of the so-called nationalistic and Europe-oriented regions of western Ukraine during the elections, Poroshenko soon came to face serious criticisms from those who can be identified as occupying the right wing of the Ukrainian political spectrum. During the conflict in Lugans’k and Donets’k regions of Ukraine, Poroshenko,on 5 September, signed the Minsk Agreement on a ceasefire. Among other provisions, the document called for the monitoring and verification of the ceasefire by the OSCE; a decentralization of power, including the adoption of the special status law regarding local government provisional arrangements in the mentioned regions; inclusive national dialogue; and early local elections in accordance with the given law. On 16 September, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted the draft law proposed by the president on self-administration in Lugans’k and Donets’k oblasts, as well as another draft law that prescribes the protection of participants in the military conflict from persecution.

The same day, the law on lustration was adopted and the Association Agreement with the EUwas ratified. According to the law on lustration, officials who were in office during Yanukovych’s regime will not be able to hold state posts for 10 years.

The adoption of these documents was met with strong reservations.

As the official web page of the EuroMaidan says:

Ratification of the Association Agreement with the EU, which attempted to lead all the news channels, was a “smokescreen” for three major non-European laws, the first of which – so-called law on lustration – focused on eliminating the main political rivals of the current government under the guise of lustration, and the second and third – amnesty and the special status of the territories captured by Russian terrorists – designed to legalize their activity, grant most bandits amnesty and allow them to form the local authorities in the occupied territories officially.

One of the contradictory documents signed by Poroshenko on 24 September, 2014 was the decree of the National Security and Defense Council “On Urgent Measures to Protect Ukraine and Strengthen Its Defense Capability”. According to the website of the president, the Council found it necessary to prepare for resurgent aggression against Ukraine and define strategic partnership with the United States, the EU and NATO as a priority interest in the country’s foreign policy. Some items of the decree are confidential. The Council also agreed on the use of Ukraine’s defense industry and on strengthening cybersecurity in the country.

Additionally, Poroshenko decided to exempt defense products from taxation. “The law [...] simplifies the defense imports of Ukraine during the specified period, the state of emergency and during the anti-terrorist operation by means of exempting the defense products on the list, which is established by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, from duties”,  the president’s website reports.

The document provoked the dissatisfaction of politicians and Ukrainian citizens for being signed too late. The explanations of such delay can be narrowed down to the following statements:
Russia hoped to occupy, if not all of Ukraine, then part of it, by placing the president to preside over the unoccupied are in order to control those territories. The objective of this puppet president was to initiate endless and fruitless peace talks with Moscow (continuously sabotaging the struggle for liberation against the invader or even avoiding to take defense measures). Poroshenko was chosen precisely to act as such a puppet by the Kremlin.

Such criticisms were sparked by the public’s disapproval of the absence of martial law in the country. The president is being criticized not only for a lack of firmness in the face of Russia, but also for being too lenient when it comes to the rebels of the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts.

Looking abroad

The president’s visit to the US in the second half of September had a largely symbolic meaning aside from fulfilling a set of strategic aims. Firstly, talking about the conflict in the eastern regions of Ukraine, Poroshenko affirmed that “it is a war against terrorism and it is our common war”. Obviously, Poroshenko ascribes himself to the Western democratic community which is leading the war against terrorism all around the world. Secondly, Poroshenko stated that the EU Association Agreement was the country’s final farewell to the USSR as it has made its European choice. Thirdly, the message that Ukraine is a European country was clearly conveyed in Poroshenko’s speech to the Parliament of Canada, where he stated that Ukrainians represent the second largest nation in Canada after the Canadians themselves and that it has deep roots and significance for the country. That financial and military aid from the US and Canada to Ukraine was discussed during the presidential visit undoubtedly shows that these countries see Ukraine not only a strategic partner which will be given a special status outside of NATO, but also as a European country that deserves to maintain its place within the Western community.

The same week of September was marked by another important event – the UN World Conference on Indigenous Peoples. Here, ex-head of the Mejlis and leader of the Crimean Tatars, Mustafa Dzhemilev, and the current head of the Mejlis, Refat Chubarov, took part in the Conference despite Moscow’s protest. During the discussion, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin expressed his concern as to the oppression of the Crimean Tatars and called for the international community’s response to the actions of Russia in Crimea. What’s more, Mustafa Dzhemilev will run in the parliamentary elections as a member of Petro Poroshenko’s bloc. As can be seen, Ukraine is trying to present itself as a democratic country which stands for traditional Western values, particularly human and minority rights.

As for Ukraine’s relations with Russia, one can certainly say that there is a war between these two countries. However, Poroshenko does not acknowledge this publicly, instead preferring to talk about “conflict” or “anti-terror operations”. Moreover, economic relations between Russia and Ukraine have made it possible for the Kremlin to dictate the rules of the game: following the ratification of the EU Agreement, Russian Minister of Economic Development Ulyukayev said that in the case Ukraine launches the implementation of a Free Trade Zone with the EU, Russia will introduce additional custom duties for Ukrainian goods. Sure, there is lack of hardness in Ukraine’s dealings with Russia, but what can be expected from such a country that depends on its neighbor economically as well as in terms of energy security, and whose president is one of its richest oligarchs? Considering that Poroshenko’s assets are operating in Russian regions, money speaks.

Conclusion

One can say that Poroshenko,as a leader, is trying to preserve the unity and sovereignty of the Ukrainian state, as well as attempting to guide Ukraine into the European community. Despite the dissatisfaction of the nationalists with his policies, it should be remembered that Poroshenko is dealing with no small task in leading Ukraine to domestic stability and economic prosperity while maneuvering between the EU and Russia. When it comes to the temporarily occupied territory – Crimea – Poroshenko is backing the Crimean Tatars as they may be seen as a possible ally in the long run. Poroshenko’s course of action now seems to consist of calming the waters at home in the run-up to the elections and securing a strong parliamentary base to be able to push forward his peace plan with renewed confidence.His message is clear, Ukraine is a European country that shares democratic values and principle, however, Russia is eager to question it by using its economic leverage.

The post First Months Of Ukraine’s President Poroshenko – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Drazen Remikovic

Lawmakers in Montenegro are taking steps in response to reports of Balkan Muslims fighting in the Middle East.

Zoran Miljanic, a member of the parliament (MP) from the opposition Democratic Front, proposed an amendment to the criminal code that requires “anyone who provides training, attends training, finances and recruits citizens of Montenegro for trips to foreign battlefields as part of paramilitary and terrorist organisations to be punished by jail sentence.”

“All the countries in the region have similar laws,” Miljanic told SETimes. “Those who go to the battlefields will be punished with imprisonment up to five years, and those who are recruiting fighters will be sentenced from five to 10 years in prison. People who return from the battlefield are time bombs for our country. This is now a global action and everyone needs to be aware of this and try to do something about it.”

Experts said the law is important because for several years Montenegro citizens have been participating in foreign wars. “The Secret Service has an accurate record of such persons. Everyone who is participating in this story should be lawfully punished,” Aleksandar Dedovic, executive director of the Alfa Centre, an Niksic based NGO focused on security issues, told SETimes. “In addition to the money that a warrior has earned, he is also bringing his experience of war and ideology to our country. This is very dangerous. Montenegro is a small community. I think that’s one of the reasons the law will be effective and enforceable in practice.”

According to media reports and the national security agency, a few hundred members of the Wahhabi movement are living in Montenegro. Officials from the agency said the radical Islamists are financed by various charities.

Media in Montenegro reported in mid-July that the country’s secret police conducted surveillance and police have been authorised to tap the phones of suspected Muslim extremists.

On September 30th, the parliamentary security committee formally asked the national security agency to continue monitoring groups of religious extremism and radicalism.

Mevludin Nuhodzic, committee chairman, said authorities need to be more effective in countering extreme Islamist groups in Montenegro, adding that action against radical Wahhabism has to involve everyone, from families to the media.

“No one can violate the law by hiding behind faith,” Nuhodzic told SETimes.

“From October 2012 until today, there have been 13 citizens of Montenegro fighting in Syria. Ten of them returned, one was killed and two others are still on the battlefield. Also, on the battlefield in Ukraine, we have two citizens of Montenegro. The ruling party will definitely support the introduction of the new law to sanction this,” he said.

According to the latest CIA report that the US State Department released on September 25th, about 30 volunteers from Montenegro are fighting for Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant militants in Iraq and Syria. The report also said several hundred jihadists from a number of Balkan countries have joined the extremist group in the Middle East.

Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Kosovo and Albania are the main recruiting grounds in the Balkans for radical Islamists. More than 350 fighters are from BiH, 150 from Kosovo, 140 from Albania, and 20 from Macedonia.

The post Montenegro To Jail Fighters Joining Foreign Wars appeared first on Eurasia Review.

The names, nicknames and photos of 1,975 individuals classified as “delinquent terrorists” were included in a 270-page report created on July 1987 by the Salvadoran military. The existence of this document, called the “Yellow Book,” was revealed on September 28 by the National Security Archive (NSA), the University of Washington Center for Human Rights and the Human Rights Data Analysis Group.

“Is the first-ever confidential Salvadoran military document to be made public,” states an electronic bulletin of the NSA. “And the only evidence to appear from the Salvadoran Army´s own files of the surveillance methods used by security forces to target Salvadoran citizens during the country´s 12-year civil war.”

The “Yellow Book,” compiled by the Intelligence Department of the Joint Staff of the Armed Forces, consists of a systematic list with 1,915 entries, 1,857 identified by name, photograph, and alleged connection to suspect organizations, including unions, political parties and rebel groups of the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN).

A hand-written note on the document´s cover page asks the reader to “use it” and “make copies of the photographs and put them on your bulletin board so you will know your enemies,” indicating that the report was intended to aid security forces in identifying the opposition.

Amnesty Law

The armed conflict in El Salvador between the Armed Forces and the FMLN between 1980 and 1992 left about 75,000 dead and 8,000 disappeared. After the signing of the Peace Accords, a Truth Commission was created to investigate the serious human rights violations committed during those years, and both parties agreed to respect the Commission´s recommendations. However, the National Assembly´s passage of the Amnesty Law ended the possibility of prosecuting war crimes.

The publication of the “Yellow Book” — along with an analysis of its content and relevant declassified documents from the United States — shows that many of the individuals mentioned in the document were in fact dead or disappeared while others were captured, tortured and released.

“The [US] researchers cross referenced names listed in the ‘Yellow Book´ with four historical databases of reports of human rights violations collected from 1980-1992. This process found 273 names in the ‘Yellow Book´, or 15 percent, that matched reports of killings or extrajudicial executions; 233 or 13 percent matching reports of forced disappearance; 274 or 15 percent matching reports of torture; and 538 or 29 percent matching reports of detention or arrest. In total, at least 43 percent of names listed in the ‘Yellow Book´ correspond with these historical human rights databases,” explains the NSA.

“The appearance of the ‘Yellow Book´ challenges years of stonewalling by El Salvador´s army and security forces about their role in the bloody civil war,” points the NSA. “The refusal of the Salvadoran government to release its official records was especially frustrating to the UN Truth Commission. While the commission had access to survivor testimonies, evidence gathered from exhumations, published human rights reports, and thousands of declassified U.S. documents, its repeated requests to the Salvadoran government for access to state archives were ignored.”

The post El Salvador: The ‘Yellow Book’ Of The Armed Forces appeared first on Eurasia Review.

In Nepal, for the second time the constitution-making process is under way with great hopes of a new dynamic document emerging from the constituent assembly. The deadline is again just around the corner. However, big questions are currently being asked by the people: will the assembly actually deliver a constitution and will it be on time? Moreover, will it be a document that is acceptable to all – one that is visionary and inclusive and, most importantly, one that institutionalizes the fundamental freedoms and rights of its people?

Provision for these aspects within the constitution is vital: indeed, they need to be the very heart and soul of the any new document. Have they, I ask, yet sufficiently debated and discussed the concept and content of a human rights-oriented constitution? Many questions still need answering: what exactly is a human rights-friendly constitution? What should its content and basic features be? How can it qualify as a good constitution? What is the means of measuring it? To me it must, at least, offer fundamental protection for many kinds of human rights.

It is true that a comprehensive list of human rights and freedoms has already been guaranteed in the interim constitution and legal framework, but the drafting of the new constitution by the second historic constituent assembly represents a unique opportunity to review the existing provisions, to fill any gaps, and to enhance the bodies responsible for protecting and promoting human rights while at the same time making them more responsible, more accountable and more human rights-oriented. Have politicians so far given enough attention to these issues? Are the politicians sufficiently sincere about these matters? Respect for human rights should be the fundamental aim and highest principle of constitutional government. The liberty of the individual should never be left for political determination but must be defined by the constitution and the law. In this column I wish to argue that the supremacy of human rights must be respected in all circumstances, and I shall suggest to the politicians that they take the issue of fundamental human rights extremely seriously and that they ensure their incorporation within the new constitution.

Firstly, I suggest incorporating economic, social and cultural rights as fundamental rights. Today, throughout the world fundamental human rights are accepted as being indivisible, interdependent and interconnected, embracing civil and political rights together with economic, social and cultural rights. The past constitutions over-emphasized the civil and the political while leaving to chance the economic, social and cultural. The forthcoming constitution, therefore, must move beyond what existed in the past and incorporate within its provisions all fundamental human rights including full economic, social and cultural rights. A person deprived of sufficient basic necessities, such as food, shelter, clothing and housing, can contribute nothing to the wider society. The right to vote, freedom of expression and the right to assembly are incapable of solving the hand-to-mouth problems of the masses. Thus, the future bill of rights must aim to fulfill basic needs and to make them enforceable in a court of law backed by strong remedies.

Secondly, I suggest incorporating the right to development (RTD) as a fundamental right within the constitution. Nepal, as yet, has never explicitly mentioned such a right in any of its institutional, legal or constitutional frameworks. Why should it now do so? Why would it be so significant? The RTD is, in fact, a comprehensive process that extends beyond economics to embrace social, cultural and political fields: it is described as a vector of different elements comprising, for example, income, employment, health, education and opportunities in general including all forms of freedom. The RTD sets a visionary agenda and is unique in its ambition and scope. The right concentrates the development process around broad participation, empowering the poor and distributing resources to all without discrimination. If its norms can be firmly embraced at the core of Nepal’s development programme and policy formulation it can revolutionize the country’s whole approach to development.
Politicians have plenty to say about inclusion, participation and social justice, but have they really thought through just how these ideas could be made to work in a real sense?

By including the RTD in the new constitution as a fundamental right they would provide a departure point, which could have a great impact on distribution and redistribution of resources and on bottom-up development that would involve people from all walks of life. Moreover, if the norms of the RTD could be integrated into all levels and layers of development, and pro-poor policies granted a broad political, legal, and institutional commitment, the right, as an amalgam of all human rights and a foundation for social justice, would prove to be a powerful weapon for mass re-construction and immense social transformation in our country.

Finally, it is vital that the human right to live in peace and in a fair and democratic society for all is embedded within the constitution. Extra-judicial killings and violence in the name of politics – whether by the security forces or by other armed groups – must be declared unconstitutional and be strictly prohibited: such actions must be regarded as crimes against humanity or even genocide. So very recently, Nepal witnessed many human atrocities, extra-judicial killings, and gross violations of human rights, and yet many of the officials and forces personnel on both sides who gave orders in the name of the people’s war have never been charged. With so many responsible for grave crimes, including crimes against humanity, managing to escape punishment, it is hard to imagine that a sustainable and just peace can ever really be achieved. It is vital that Nepal ensures that such atrocities are never repeated. The constitution must state clearly that no single individual may be killed in the name of politics, civil war, ethnic-politics, ideology or social and political change. If the new constitutution fail to insert this clause in the constitution, I strongly believe that the new document will fail as a bill of rights. Future generations will accuse us of having learnt nothing from the ten-year civil war that produced mass killings, immense destruction and crimes against humanity? The right to live in peace and in a democratic and fair society must be at the heart of the constitution. Killings and outrages against human dignity must be confirmed as ‘never again’ in the new constitution, which must in turn become the basis for Nepal ratifying the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court.

Today, respect of human rights must be regarded as the cornerstone of any legitimate state: it is the tool that legitimizes the actions of any government. The safeguarding of the fundamental rights of the people has to be the heart and soul of the any written constitution. However, it is one thing to list a catalogue of rights and liberties in the constitution: it is another to bolster those rights and freedoms with strong legislation ensuring firm enforcement mechanisms and political commitments at all levels. In Nepal, a human rights culture must become deeply embedded within all political forces, all level of governance and within civil society. Human rights are the culture to establish. It is about attitude. It is about respecting each other’s way of life creating a fair, equal and rights-based society. The present constituent assembly has a unique opportunity to establish such a just society based on human rights, the rule of law and respect for all. The great challenge now is: Will it happen? Will those individuals in power take the task seriously? Will they prove that they have indeed learned from the atrocities of the recent past, and that they are ready now to change their attitudes?

Dr. Basnet holds a Ph.D. and an LL.M degree in International Human Rights Law at Lancaster University, U.K, is a Prominent Columnist, Lecturer & Researcher in International Human Rights Law and a Human Rights and Constitutional Law Lawyer in the Supreme Court and Subordinate Court of Nepal. Email: gyanbasnet@aol.com.

The post Nepal: Institutionalizing Human Rights – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review.

Should the West worry about Russia’s growing oil and gas exports to the Asia-Pacific region? Michael Bradshaw doesn’t think so. While Vladimir Putin may want to shift his energy business from Europe to China, Gazprom needs Western revenues to build the desired pipeline infrastructure.

By Michael Bradshaw

The 30-year gas deal between Russia’s Gazprom and China’s National Petroleum Corporation (CNCP), signed last May, for the supply of 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) of pipeline gas from 2018 onwards, marks the culmination of a decade of negotiations. Last year it was announced that everything was agreed but the price. No doubt the West’s reaction to events in Ukraine focused minds in Moscow to make sure the deal was done. Although the financial details of the agreement are unknown, the price is thought to be in the range of $350-$380 per thousand cubic metres — about the average price that Gazprom charges to its European customers. At the time, Gazprom stated that the contract contains a “price formula linked to oil prices” and a “’take-or-pay’ clause,'” which suggests an agreement akin to those that dominate Gazprom’s exports to Europe. An investment of $55 billion is required in Russia to develop the fields at Chayanda (in Sakha-Yakutia) and Kovytka (in Irkutsk) and to build the ‘Power of Siberia’ pipeline to the border at Blagoveshchensk.  To assist in the development phase, China will provide a loan of $25 billion. To prevent Russia from being reliant on a single buyer, the pipeline will also continue to Vladivostok where it will feed Gazprom’s planned Vladivostok LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) plant.

Not surprisingly, this agreement has been dubbed Gazprom’s ‘Deal of the Century.’ Nevertheless, there may be much more to come.

More on the way

There are indications that an agreement for the additional 30 bcm may be signed by the end of the year. The original inter-governmental agreement signed in 2006 envisaged a total of 68 bcm of gas being exported via two corridors: the eastern corridor that is the basis of the initial agreement and a western corridor that would bring gas from West Siberia to China via the so-called Altai route. The gas from West Siberia would feed into an expanded ‘West-East Gas Pipeline’ that would bring additional gas from Central Asia. To help address the country’s chronic air pollution problems, the Chinese Government has demanded a substantial increase in the domestic use of natural gas. Securing such a substantial amount of pipeline gas to supplement domestic production and the import of LNG into coastal regions will go some way towards doubling the amount of gas used – from 5 percent today to 10 percent by the end of this decade, and again to 20 percent by 2030.

The Chinese Government also hopes that domestic shale gas production can make a significant contribution, but so far progress has been slow and production estimates have recently been downgraded. Dr Keun-Wook Paik, from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, estimates that between 2020-25 the total volume of pipeline gas imported into China could be as high as 160-165 bcm, with 68 bcm coming from Russia (in 2013 Russia exported 130 bcm to Europe). As China also has ambitious plans to expand domestic production and can always build additional LNG import capacity, it can easily hedge against Russia, using its gas supplies for geopolitical gain. China has clearly seized on Russia’s current problems with the West to strike a good deal on gas.

Siberia for sale

Russia’s desire to expand its economic ties with the Asia-Pacific region is a long-standing theme. In fact, it goes back to the Soviet period when a series of inter-governmental agreements between the USSR and Japan opened up trade in forestry and coal and financed the initial oil and gas exploration offshore of Sakhalin. Expanding energy ties with the Asia-Pacific is enshrined in Russia’s Energy Strategy and the targets were recently revised ahead of publication of a new strategy next year. The aim now is to increase the share of total Russian oil and gas products going to Asia from 12% to 23% by 2035 (including 32% of crude oil exports), and to increase gas exports from 6% (which is the Sakhalin-2 LNG project) to 31.5% by 2035, with the volume of LNG exports rising to 30 mtpa (41 bcm) by 2020 and to 100 mtpa (138 bcm) by 2035.

Expansion of oil exports to the Asia-Pacific predates the current gas deals. In the aftermath of the 2008 crisis the completion of the East Siberia Pacific Oil pipeline (ESPO) was financed by deals with Rosneft and Transneft that saw Chinese finance provided in return for deliveries of oil. Rosneft has since expanded this agreement and most recently offered 10 percent of its Vankor oilfield to CNCP. This latest deal, worth $1 billion, has likely been prompted by Rosneft’s need to raise finance in the light of Western sanctions. Again, an example of how Western sanctions are promoting the expansion of Russia’s energy relations with Asia. Rosneft is also reported to have offered India’s ONGC a share in its Yurubcheno-Tokhomskoye oilfield in East Siberia. It almost seems as if the current situation has prompted a garage sale of Siberia’s oil and gas resources.

The race for LNG exports is on

In late 2013 the Russian Government approved a limited liberalization of LNG exports. Previously Gazprom had a monopoly on all of Russia’s gas exports. The legislation permits LNG exports from Novatek’s Yamal LNG plant, which is currently under construction, and from Rosneft’s planned Far Eastern LNG plant on Sakhalin Island, where Gazprom has already made a final investment decision on the Vladivostok LNG plant and is also considering the expansion of Russia’s only operational LNG plant at Prigorodnoye on Aniva Bay in the south of Sakhalin, which is part of the Sakhalin-2 project. By 2020 there could be 15 mtpa of new LNG capacity in the Russian Far East, to add to the 10.8 mtpa currently in operation. The Yamal LNG plant in West Siberia is also targeting Asian markets during the summer months via the Northern Sea route and could add at least another 5 mtpa. However, it remains to be seen if they will all be built on time. Gazprom and Rosneft are involved in a very public argument over the best way to bring Sakhalin’s additional gas to market. For various reasons, there may not be enough gas available in time for all the projects to be completed by 2020. If we were to assume that the 30 mtpa target is met and that a second pipeline deal is done, then in the early 2020s Russia could be exporting over 100bcm of gas to the Asia-Pacific region.

Should Europe be worried?

Does the eastward expansion of Russian oil and gas exports present a challenge to Europe? In the case of oil, the real issue is whether or not Russia can satisfy the contracts it has with China, plus exports to the Pacific, in addition to domestic demand and exports to Europe. The current sanctions may hamper Russia’s ability to develop new fields, and the existing old fields are rapidly declining. The result may well be a fall in Russian exports to world markets. The situation with gas is rather different as there is currently a gas glut in Russia, and Gazprom has slowed the pace of new field development in the face of competition from Novatek and the oil companies. Gazprom has more than enough reserves to meet its obligations to Europe—where the market is unlikely to grow and may yet decline—and its new supply commitments in Asia. The question is whether it has the capacity to finance and complete all of these projects in a timely and cost-competitive fashion.

Putin may wish to link the pipeline networks so that he can threaten to send Europe’s gas to Asia. The reality, however, is that Gazprom cannot afford to lose revenue from its exports to Europe, as that is needed to finance its new projects including the South Stream pipeline to bypass Ukraine. When it comes to LNG, there are likely to be delays in completing the projects and there is stiff competition from established suppliers as well as new projects in Australia, North America and East Africa. When it comes to pipeline gas, this means that Europe has little to worry about in relation to Russia’s plans in the east. Furthermore, if the expansion of gas exports to the Asia-Pacific helps to slow the rate of coal consumption, then everyone wins as it will help to reduce global carbon emissions.

Michael Bradshaw is Professor of Global Energy at the Warwick Business School and author of Global Energy Dilemmas: Energy Security, Globalization and Climate Change, published by Polity Press.

The post Russia’s Energy Shift To The East: Should Europe Be Worried? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Andrei Lankov

One of the most remarkable changes that could be experienced in the former Soviet Union after the USSR collapsed was the massive change in the status of various jobs.

Some jobs that were very prestigious under communist rule lost their allure, while many that had hitherto been seen as mundane or even degrading occupations suddenly became much sought after.

There is little doubt that North Korea is likely to undergo the same transformation, and perhaps, the list of new found losers and winners may be the same.

Historically, the Soviet Union, as well as nearly all other state socialist economies, was a country where distribution—and control over distribution—mattered greatly.

Thus, people who had control over supply channels had numerous advantages. Of these advantages, the ability to obtain otherwise very difficult to find goods for oneself and one’s close relations was probably the most innocent.

Usually, sales clerks and managers of state-run shops went much further in abusing their positions. Instead of selling their goods over the counter at their shops they often sent these goods to the market to be sold at a much higher price or used the goods in many different kinds of barter deals.

This meant that in the Soviet Union of the 1970s or in North Korea of the early 2000s, it was profitable and prestigious to work in retail.

Changes abound

Things were to change with the collapse of the USSR. The marketization of the former Soviet Union eliminated the possibility of reselling high quality goods at massive mark-up, and those employed in the retail sector in low-level jobs suddenly found themselves near the bottom of the urban job market.

Another set of people in the Soviet Union whose jobs were considered to be prestigious was those lucky enough to frequently traveled overseas or interacted with foreigners.

They included fishermen, seamen, tour guides and even workers at construction sites overseas. These people had access to foreign currency that had tremendous purchasing power in state socialist economies. They also could acquire prestigious foreign-made goods.

This is still the case in North Korea. Such jobs, related to foreign trade, still enjoy great prestige there.

But in post-communist Russia such prestige has diminished greatly. Foreign currency has lost much of its earlier allure in the open market economy. Therefore, while such jobs are still relatively popular, they are no longer seen as exceptional.

There were winners, of course, as well. For example, the 1990s was a golden age to be an accountant in the Soviet Union.

A number of new companies mushroomed, and all of them needed people with the basic skills required to do basic paperwork. The marketization of Russia meant that many kinds of financial documentation needed to be dealt with.

Accountants, hitherto seen as having a job that was poorly paid and menial suddenly found themselves with a great deal of well-paid work.

Market transformation

There is little doubt that the same transformation might occur in North Korea if it is going to become a market economy.

Another group of winners included skilled manual workers, although in their case it took roughly 10 years for the market transformation to bring this group rewards. Many of this group had enjoyed a degree of prestige in communist times, but around 2000, when the transformation was largely complete, it was suddenly discovered that their skills were going to be in high demand.

Nowadays, in Russia a skilled worker enjoys a markedly better income as well as a greater level of job security than a run-of-the-mill clerk.

And there are jobs that used to be prestigious under the old system and retained their high standing after the collapse of communism. For example, one could mention IT specialists who began to appear in the Soviet Union around 1980.

In the days of communism, these people, privy to the mysterious word of thinking machines, were often employed by military research centers and powerful state agencies.

After 1990, the same people discovered that they were in high demand in the rapidly expanding private sector.

Again, the same is applicable to North Korea: IT specialists are doing well now, and they are likely to weather all future political and social storms quite well.

All of these changes are likely to happen in North Korea in the future.

Given the experience of post-Soviet Russia, one should advise North Koreans not to spend much time on preparing their children for work in the booming retail industry.

Some of them will probably succeed, but on balance it might be a better idea to give them some technical skills or encourage them to study accounting.

And of course, foreign languages and computer skills are going to be of high value in both the current climate and going forward.

Andrei Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University in Seoul, is a Russian historian, North Korea expert, and regular RFA contributor.

The post North Koreans May Have To Prepare For Job Transformation – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Illia Djadi

While the world’s attention is fixed on IS in Syria and Iraq, it’s easy to forget that last year, French troops were rushed to Mali to prevent a jihadist-influenced coup that threatened to take over the country. This swift intervention meant that the coup which took over much of the north was halted.

For nearly a year in 2012 armed Islamist groups had ruled that region, banning the practice of other religions and desecrating and looting churches and other places of worship. Thousands, including many Christians, fled the occupation and found refuge in the south of the country or in neighboring countries such as Niger and Burkina Faso.

Now amidst a new upsurge of jihadist activity in the north, Mali’s Catholic Bishops have expressed their concern over the security situation in the whole country.

A recent series of attacks by militants has targeted mainly UN peacekeepers. Yesterday October 7th, a Senegalese UN peacekeeper was killed in an attack on a joint French and UN camp in the northern town of Kidal.

On Friday October 3, gunmen on motorbikes ambushed a UN convoy near the northern town of Gao; nine peacekeepers from Niger were killed. The attack was claimed by The Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa, an Islamist group widely known by its French acronym, Mujao.

Mujao, with two other jihadist groups – Al-Qaeda In the Maghreb (AQIM) and Ansar Dine – occupied northern Mali for about 10 months in 2012 before being ousted by the French in January 2013.

In total 31 peacekeepers have lost their lives, and 91 been injured since the deployment of the UN Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) in July 2013. During the UN General Assembly, Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said the situation in northern Mali is ‘extremely precarious’.

In their statement, the Bishops said ‘‘While the situation remains worrying in the north, given the bombings and other frequent attacks perpetrated against UN peacekeepers, and peaceful people who want to resume a normal life, the socio-political situation is not that better in the south’’.

More efforts are needed to fully restore peace and security, they urged. While deploring the increase of attacks, the Bishops called on all armed groups and all citizens to work for the peace, unity and prosperity of Mali.

‘‘We urge all Malians to put first the interests of Mali over all other interests while the house is in danger, and when we need to stick together to save it. Mali is our motherland that we must build together based on cultural, religious and ethnic diversity.

‘‘Therefore, we must learn again the meaning of this country…the meaning of citizenship’’ read the statement, issued at the end of the Episcopal Conference of Mali, held on September 24-26, 2014, in Bamako, the capital.

The declaration comes while representatives of the government and armed groups have been holding peace talks in Algiers. The Malian prelates have welcomed these, describing them as a ‘’meeting of hope for all Malian patriots.’’

Islamists’ threat and Libya chaos

The return of the jihadists has raised concerns among the general population, particularly in the north. A community leader, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed to World Watch Monitor the presence of jihadists in Timbuktu.

“We have seen them [Islamists] in our midst, easily recognizable with their long beards. This was not the case sometime before. Many have made their return under the cover of MNLA,” [National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad, the political and military organisation that fought to bring independence for the north in 2012].

‘‘Their presence among us does not inspire confidence. We fear revenge actions against those who denounced them, or who rejoiced when they were ousted by French army strikes.’’

On August 25, many people demonstrated in Gao to express their anger over the presence of Islamists or suspected collaborators. “Some have carried arms as Mujao militants and now they come back as if nothing had happened,” said a protester angrily.

The French military intervention allowed the liberation of northern cities such as Timbuktu and Gao, but it did not completely eradicate the Islamist threat in Mali. Many Islamists who fought in the ranks of the three jihadist groups have now reinvented themselves.

Some have joined the ranks of MNLA, seen by the international community as a movement whose grievances must be addressed.

On the other hand, ex-members of Ansar Dine, have founded the Supreme Council for the unity of Azawad (HCUA), while several veterans of Mujao have gathered into the Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA). These two latter groups – HCUA and MAA – are now considered as ‘respectable partners’ by the international community and participate in the Algiers peace talks, alongside MNLA and Malian government representatives.

As for AQIM fighters, many of them were reported killed in the mountain region of Ifogas in the far north of Mali, while others have sought refuge in Algeria, but also in southern Libya. From this region came the armed men who carried out the attack at the Algerian Gaz plant in January 2013.

The bombers who targeted, in May 2013, a military barracks and a uranium site in Niger also came from Libya, according to Niger authorities.

For many analysts, Southern Libya has become a safe haven for jihadists, who are a threat to the sub-region.

The Secretary General of the Episcopal Conference of Mali, Fr. Edmond Dembele, told the Fides news agency: “The international community needs to seriously take into consideration the problem regarding the stability of Libya, because the armed groups operating in the north of Mali take refuge in southern Libya and then return to our country to carry out deadly attacks.

Therefore if the south of Libya is not stabilized, neighbouring countries such as Mali and Niger will suffer attacks” warned the priest.

The post As UN Targeted By Islamists In Mali, Bishops Urge Renewed Peace Efforts appeared first on Eurasia Review.

(RFE/RL) — Iranian officials said on October 9 that they’ve had “constructive” talks with UN nuclear experts aimed at resolving outstanding questions about Tehran’s disputed nuclear program.

But a statement from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) suggests only limited progress was made at the Tehran talks on October 7 and 8.

The IAEA is trying to clarify two points about Iran’s nuclear program. It says negotiations will continue, but did not announce a date.

Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA, Reza Najafi, said the negotiations were “constructive in terms of content” and “were also direct.”

Iran failed to meet an August 25 deadline to provide the IAEA with information meant to ease concerns that it is trying to develop nuclear weapons.

Tehran says its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes.

Six world powers have set a November 24 deadline for a permanent nuclear deal with Iran.

The post IAEA Suggests Progress Limited At Iran Nuclear Talks appeared first on Eurasia Review.

By Sandhya Jain

US President Obama’s decision to fight the Dawlat al-Islamiyah f’al-Iraq w Belaad al-Sham (Daesh) by air has come under fire as the heroic Kurdish resistance in Kobane (Kurdish for Ain al-Arab) threatens to crumble with mercenaries storming the northern Syrian city, across the Turkish border. Istanbul’s role in the humanitarian crisis – which could result in mass slaughter of the local populace on a scale far worse than the Yazidis on Mount Sinjar in August – has begun to agitate its own Kurd citizenry. Daesh, meanwhile, got a morale booster when the Pakistani Taliban (October 4) offered allegiance and asked militants across the region to help establish a global Islamic caliphate.

Bitter last ditch battles are being fought by Kurdish men and women, including boys and girls barely out of their teens, who are the sole ‘boots on the ground’ against the Daesh. Observers feel Western air cover is ineffective; California Republican Representative Ed Royce, head of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, calls it inadequate. In Turkey angry crowds are protesting against Ankara’s inaction; police used teargas and water cannon to disperse mobs. Turkish media reported that 14 persons died and dozens wounded across several cities, five provinces are under curfew.

Turkish President Recep Erdogan insists that only ground operations can defeat Daesh. But even with the imminent fall of Kobane, and despite authorisation from Parliament, he has not deployed his army across the border. Instead, Turkey remains the main transit route for foreigners intending to join the Daesh, and it is to Urfa (Turkey) that injured Daesh fighters go to hospitals for free medical care!

Erdogan has refused to answer charges that he was not allowing Turkish Kurds (PKK or Kurdistan Workers’ Party) to help the beleaguered Syrian Kurds (Yekîneyên Parastina Ge or YPG). He is adamant that the West act against both Syrian President Bashir al-Assad and Daesh, an impossible demand. Washington has urged Turkey to fight Daesh and leave Assad for the present.

Kobane’s fall will give the Daesh control over vast stretches of the Turkish-Syrian border and provide a direct route to its units in the Syrian provinces of Aleppo and Raqqa (headquarters of Daesh). It is to achieve this goal that Chechen commander Abu Omar al-Shishani has made the conquest of Kobane a personal mission, especially as US air power and ground action by Iraqis has made further progress in Iraq difficult.

Soner Cagaptay, analyst for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, feels Erdogan is holding Kobane Kurds ‘hostage’ to weaken PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, who is negotiating with the regime from prison. The PKK has been outlawed by Turkey and the United States. Erdogan wants Kurdish fighters to join the Syrian rebels against President Assad, another unrealistic demand.

Some analysts feel that to succeed, Washington must cooperate with the Syrian Kurds (YPG) as Kurdish fighters alone have proved willing and capable of taking on the Daesh. But that seems unlikely as Turkey (a NATO member) is unwilling to strengthen the YPG or the PKK. Interestingly, Erdogan recently forced US vice-president Joe Biden to apologise for his remark that he (Erdogan) had admitted to him (Biden) that Turkey had made mistakes by allowing foreign fighters to cross into Syria, which helped the Daesh militia.

As Daesh flags began to flutter in parts of Kobane from October 6, reports came in of female soldiers committing suicide to escape humiliation and torture at their hands. On October 3, the German magazine BILD reported that 19-year-old Ceylan Özalp shot herself after running out of ammunition on the outskirts of Kobane. The Kurds are heavily outnumbered – Daesh has about 9,000 terrorists armed with tanks and rocket launchers – while Kurds have no heavy weaponry and are running out of ammunition.

The Daesh is reportedly posting pictures of beheaded Kurdish fighters, including women, captured near Kobane. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has reported that nine Kurdish soldiers, including three women, were captured in the city and beheaded, and pictures posted on social networking sites. Since September, the Daesh has captured dozens of Kurdish villages near Turkey and displaced over three lakh Kurds. However, as its own villages began to be hit by Daesh shelling, and given that only a railway line separates Kobane from Turkey, Istanbul has now deployed tanks at the border to protect its territory.

For months, until the Daesh’s superior fire power and numbers threatened to overwhelm it, the YPG of the Rojava de facto autonomous Kurdish region in northeast Syria held the fort across five frontlines across northern Syria. The Iraqi peshmerga (Kurdistan Regional Government or KRG) receives military aid from the US, UK, France and Germany, but the YPG has been ignored due to suspicions that it is close to President Assad, Iran, and the PKK of Abdullah Ocalan. The YPG is so under equipped that it lacks even body armour and helmets, and depends upon the black market to buy arms and ammunition.

Despite this, when the KRG was beaten back from Mount Sinjar and the Yazidi began to be persecuted, the YPG moved into Iraq and protected the Yazidi and provided them safe passage for asylum in Turkey. It even trained a thousand Yazidis and sent them back to Sinjar as local defence units under YPG and PKK supervision. This has caused tension between the Syrian and Iraqi Kurds, though both sides have set aside their differences for the time being.

So far, the Syrian Kurds have tenaciously held three enclaves on the Syrian-Turkish border despite severe pressure. But since September 18th, Daesh has launched a punishing offensive against the ill-equipped YPG, concentrating on the strategic Kobane which is vital to a supply route used by foreign fighters joining Daesh.

The Daesh offensive coincides suspiciously with its mysterious release of 49 Turkish consulate employees. Many Kurds, including Turkey’s PKK, suspect that Istanbul helped Daesh’s sudden progress against the Kurds in Syria by releasing prisoners and allowing foreign fighters to cross its border. Other sources say Turkey may be unwilling to oppose the Daesh due to its indirect threats against “Constantinople” (the old name of Istanbul) in a statement of September 22, which urged followers to kill Americans, Australians, Frenchmen and others by any available means.

Another consideration is the safety of Turkish soldiers guarding the tomb of Suleiman Shah, grandfather of the first Ottoman Sultan, Osman I. The tomb, closely identified with Turkish identity and culture, lies in Syria, in territory now controlled by Daesh. Under the Treaty of Ankara, 1921, which created the new nation of Syria, the Ottoman tomb remained a Turkish exclave, flying the Turkish flag and protected by a guard of honour of Turkish soldiers.

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India.

Originally published by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/KurdssolebootsongroundagainstIslamicState_sjain_091014.html

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